Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-16-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls -11.5 | 99-104 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Early NBA Playoffs SMASH (ESPN) on Bulls -11.5
Chicago defeated Indiana by 19 and 21 points in 2 meetings at the United Center this season. It also added another 13-point victory at Conseco. However, the Bulls lost the most recent matchup in this series last month. That defeat assures us Chicago won't be looking ahead. Consider that Chicago is an impressive 30-15 ATS when out to avenging a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Indiana has struggled on the road all season and is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. The Pacers are also 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this matchup and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago. Expect Derrick Rose and company to waste no time sending a message. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-13-11 | New Orleans Hornets v. Dallas Mavericks -9.5 | 89-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Mavs -9.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to New Orleans by a combined 3 points, expect the Mavs to give the Hornets a beating. Dallas led 92-85 with a minute to play in the most recent meeting (3/9) between these teams, but New Orleans scored the final eight points to squeak out a 1-point win. You can bet that loss still isn't sitting well. Plus, Dallas still has a shot at the No. 2 seed in the West, which would give it home court through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. New Orleans, which is currently tied with Memphis, doesn't want the 7-seed, which would potentially match it up with the Lakers, a team they went 0-4 against. The Hornets would much rather see San Antonio in the first round, a team they split 4 meetings with. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-13-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -3 | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational SMASH on Jazz -3
Denver is locked into the #5-seed in the West and has no incentive to win here. That's why the Nuggets will be resting Nene, Afflalo, Felton, Martin and possibly Gallinari. The Jazz are at home, and they will look to win this one for the faithful fans who stuck by them throughout a tough season. Besides, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Nuggets are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-12-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers are begging for the money to come in on the Spurs with this line but we won't bite. This game means a lot more to the Lakers, and I expect that to show once the ball goes up. After 5 consecutive losses SU and ATS, Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson have called out the troops. Expect them to respond in a big way against a Spurs team that is much more concerned about limiting its starters minutes to go into the playoffs healthy. The Lakers dominated the Spurs in a 16-point road rout in the most recent meeting, and they will have the motivation to do it again. Keep in mind that the Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 2 days of rest and the Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest division. The Lakers have a lot more to play for here as they try to hold off Dallas and OKC for the #2 seed. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-11-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings +6 | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6
This is a tough spot for the Thunder, playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road following an emotional win over the Lakers. This situation spells letdown for OKC. Sacramento is quietly playing some of its best ball of the season, going 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Kings will be lacking no motivation tonight as they look to avenge the 30-point loss they took at OKC in the most recent meeting. Fortunately, the Kings have had much better luck against the Thunder at home. Sacramento has either won or lost by 6 points or less in its last 5 home games against the Thunder. This includes a 2-point loss at home earlier this season. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 to 10.0 points. Take the Kings. |
|||||||
04-11-11 | Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks +7 | 98-90 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Hawks +7
Motivated by 4 straight defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss to lowly Washington last game, and a blowout loss at home to Miami last month, expect the Hawks to be ready to go tonight. Atlanta, which hasn't lost 5 in a row in over 3 years, needs this game to prove to itself that it is capable of winning a playoff series against the East's elite. Atlanta should also benefit from the day off to prepare. Defeating this motivated Hawks squad will be a tough encore for Miami after such an emotional win over Boston yesterday. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The home team is also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Hawks. |
|||||||
04-10-11 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -6 | 77-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Heat -6
Motivated by 3 prior defeats to Boston this season, expect the red hot Heat to have their revenge Sunday afternoon. Consider that plays on home favorites playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses vs. an opponent) in a game involving two good teams with winning percentages between 60% to 75% are 81-44 ATS since 1996. Also, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a loss to a team that held them less than 85 points in the most recent matchup, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60% to 75%, are 33-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points. We'll lay the points with the Heat. |
|||||||
04-09-11 | Utah Jazz +10.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NBA Saturday Night *BEST BET* on Jazz +10.5
We saw the way the Jazz got up for the Lakers in their win at LA Tuesday. Following a disappointing performance against Portland, and motivated by 2 prior losses to San Antonio this season, expect the Jazz to give the Spurs a game. The Spurs have been a poor investment when laying points on their home floor. In fact, they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. San Antonio has had 2 full days of rest, but odds makers love to overvalue good team in such spots, as evidenced by the fact San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Utah, meanwhile, has been a solid investment following a double-digit defeat. Consider that the Jazz are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
04-08-11 | Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NBA Revenge SMASH on Kings +9.5
The Kings have quietly been playing some very good basketball, winning 7 of their last 11. They did, however, get their doors blown off by San Antonio last game and they were embarrassed in their most recent visit to Memphis. These losses assure us the Kings will be out for some serious revenge. The Kings are a much improved team with Tyreke Evans back in action and they have been very strong in revenge spots this season. In fact, Sacramento is 25-13 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season. It is only losing by an average of 2.9 points in this situation. The Kings are also a tremendous 27-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by just 4.2 points on average. Take the points. |
|||||||
04-08-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 | 93-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA Letdown Special on Cleveland +9.5
Expect a letdown from Chicago after such a big win over Boston last night. The Bulls will have a tough time getting up for this game against a team they have defeated 3 times this season. Cleveland is showing some life with back-to-back wins, and its 3 losses to Chicago assure us it will be motivated here. The Cavs, which have a recent home win over the Miami Heat, are 3-0 ATS versus Chicago this season. The Cavaliers are an impressive 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Cleveland. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
04-07-11 | Boston Celtics +4.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 81-97 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Celtics +4.5
With Chicago likely to secure home court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, Boston will have to win at Chicago if it is to repeat as champions of the East. I expect the Celtics to show the Bulls they can do just that tonight. The Celtics have been a tremendous investment as an underdog at 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in the role. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. After winning the season's first 2 meeting by 5 and 12 points respectively, Boston lost the most recent meeting by 11 points at Chicago in January. That actually bodes well for us considering Boston is 10-1 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won in this situation by an average of 9.9 points. Boston has wins at the Lakers, Spurs and Heat and I expect it to add Chicago to the list. Take the points. |
|||||||
04-06-11 | New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -4.5
Off back-to-back losses, including a butt-kicking at Boston last night, and a double-digit loss to New York in the most recent meeting, the 76ers will be extremely motivated when they hit their home floor this evening. Since losing 9 of 10, the Knicks have managed to bounce back with 4 straight victories. Forgive me if I'm not impressed. They needed OT to beat the Magic in a game in which Jameer Nelson did not play. After that, wins over New Jersey, Cleveland and Toronto won't impress anyone. The Knicks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. Philly is 25-12 at home on the season with a 6.0-point average margin of victory, and it has been deadly in bounce back spots. The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Here's the clincher: Philly is 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average of 8.7 points. Take the 76ers. |
|||||||
04-05-11 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -10.5 | Top | 108-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -10.5
With a chance to clinch a spot in the playoffs, the Blazers won't take the Warriors lightly tonight, especially since they lost to Golden State in the most recent meeting. The Warriors have lost 8 in a row on the road with those losses coming by an average of 13.4 points. 5 of their last 6 road defeats have all come by 11 points or more. The Blazers have won 9 straight at the Rose Garden by an average of 14.4 points. It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Blazers have a huge advantage on the defensive end and in the paint with Warriors missing the inside presence of Andris Biedrins. Expect a big night from LaMarcus Aldridge and for Portland to dominate the glass as they get the win and cover here. |
|||||||
04-04-11 | Butler +3.5 v. Connecticut | 41-53 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
4* 32-0 ATS Championship Game *BEST BET* on Butler +3.5
Butler is a perfect 10-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning these contests by an average score of 69.6 to 62.1. It is also 10-0 ATS in all NCAA tournament over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 65.0 to 60.0. It is also worth noting that the Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. These trends complete our perfect angle, but I have also uncovered several other trends that provide further support. The Bulldogs are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 23-6 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog, 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Huskies, meanwhile, are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. No team has been more prepared or executed better than Butler in the NCAA tournament the last 2 years and I expect no different tonight. Take the points. |
|||||||
04-03-11 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 96-104 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Mavericks +4
Motivated by back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, as well as a 3-point loss at Portland last month, expect the Mavs to take the Blazers right down to the wire Sunday. Dallas has won or lost by 4 points or less in 4 straight, 12 of the last 13 and 25 of the last 27 meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that Dallas is a perfect 9-0 ATS under coach Carlisle in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite. The Mavs have won by an average of 12.0 points in this situation. The Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Mavs. |
|||||||
04-02-11 | Kentucky -2 v. Connecticut | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Final Four *BEST BET* on Kentucky -2
Respect is given to this UConn team, which kicked Kentucky in November and has caught fire late in the season, but that isn't enough to pull me off the Wildcats. Kentucky was a young team still finding its way when these schools first met. It is a much different team now, one with toughness and poise. One that has defeated No. 1 overall seed Ohio State and No. 2 seed North Carolina. The Wildcats were able to avenge an earlier season loss to North Carolina in the Elite Eight, and that should come as no surprise. After all, Kentucky is 8-1 ATS when playing away from home in a revenge spot under coach Calipari, winning in this situation by an average of 11.7 points. If playing away from home and out to avenge an upset loss, this trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 12.1 points. With great size, length and athletic ability, the Wildcats held Ohio State, which ranked 2nd in the country in field goal percentage, to just 32.8 percent shooting. This is what the Wildcats are capable of and this is what I believe we'll see this evening. Take Kentucky. |
|||||||
04-01-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NBA Friday Night Bailout on Trail Blazers -2.5
Motivated by 3 prior losses to OKC this season, and an upset loss at New Orleans last game, expect the Blazers to get the win and cover at home tonight. Portland is one tough cookie at home, where it is 26-10 this season. The fact that it is coming off an upset loss on the road is also very significant considering coach McMillan's teams are an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. They are winning by an average score of 97.9 to 89.4 in this situation. In addition, the Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Also, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 93-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +1.5
The Grizzlies are in great form, and I love their chances tonight against a New Orleans team minus leading scorer David West. Having lost both previous meetings to New Orleans this season, the Grizzlies will be lacking no motivation here. The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus divisional foes, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. The Hornets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. In addition, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Memphis. |
|||||||
03-31-11 | Dallas Mavericks +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 82-110 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7
The Mavericks' 27-10 road record is the best in the NBA, and it would likely be even better had Dirk Nowitzki not missed time with an injury earlier this season. And of those 10 defeats, it is worth noting that 5 have come by 5 points or less. Also consider that Dallas is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season, winning these contests by an average score of 98.5 to 96.4. This game is important for both teams in terms of Western Conference playoff seeding, so I'm expecting a battle in which the points will come in handy. Dallas has either won or lost by 7 points or less to the Lakers in 4 straight and 17 of the last 18. The Mavs played last night, but they were in L.A. so travel was not an issue. Besides, the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. The Lakers have had a few days off, which is one reason why this line is elevated. However, it is worth noting that LA is 4-12 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. It is only winning by an average of 5.7 points in this situation. The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Lakers at Staples. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-31-11 | Wichita State v. Alabama +2 | 66-57 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NIT Championship SMASH (ESPN2) on Alabama +2
Alabama's defense will be the difference tonight. The Tide rank 7th in the country with only 59.2 ppg allowed while holding the opposition to 38.3% shooting (4th nationally). They also force a lot of turnovers. They got Miami to Cough it up 19 times in the quarterfinals and Colorado 16 times in the semifinals. The Shockers have benefited at times from playing teams that live and die by the 3-point shot. Bama is not one of those teams. It likes to get in the paint, putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. With this in mind, it is worth noting that the Shockers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games (after 15-plus games into the season) versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots per game. While Wichita State is also a good defensive team, it doesn't put as much pressure on its foes as Alabama. As a result, it doesn't force as many turnovers. This is significant because Bama is 14-5 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Tide are defeating these teams by an average score of 68.7 to 60.6. Take the Tide. |
|||||||
03-29-11 | Wichita State -3 v. Washington State | 75-44 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NIT SMASH (ESPN2) on Wichita State -3
I'm confident Washington State wouldn't be playing in the NIT semifinals if it had to play a game on the road to get here. We're talking about a team that is just 3-8 in its last 11 road/neutral floor games. Wichita State, meanwhile, has gone on the road during the NIT and it upset top seed Virginia Tech. Overall, the Shockers are 13-4 in road/neutral court games this season. The Shockers are the superior defensive team, allowing nearly 5.0 points less per game. They also have experience in playing teams with legit go-to guys. Wichita State played against Charleston's Andrew Goudelock last round and allowed him to get his while locking up everyone else. And Goudelock had to work extremely hard for his points. He made a couple 3-pointers from 30-plus feet. I expect a similar strategy to work against Washington State and Klay Thompson this evening. The Shockers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Also, the Cougars are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 games as an underdog and 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Shockers. |
|||||||
03-27-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +6 | 99-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Sunday NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Cavs +6
Without Joe Johnson on the floor, and after clinching a playoff berth Saturday, I expect a major lapse in concentration from the Hawks here, which will leave them very susceptible. Cleveland enters this contest with some much needed momentum and it will be hungry after losing each of the season's first two to the Hawks. Because Atlanta has already defeated the Cavs twice, it will be much more concerned with upcoming matchups against Orlando and Boston. Atlanta is a disastrous 5-14 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by an average score of 98.1 to 96.8 in these spots. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-27-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Kansas -11 | 71-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
3* Elite 8 SMASH on Kansas -11
Since getting upset by #9 seed Northern Iowa last year, Kansas has been on a mission. The Jayhawks have destroyed each of their opponents in the Big Dance by a minimum of 14 points. VCU looked very human against FSU. Kansas is nearly as strong defensively as the Noles, holding foes to just 39.4% shooting on the season, and it is much stronger offensively. It's been a great run for VCU but Kansas is on another level right now, and I fully expect it to flex its muscles in this matchup. The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. They are also 22-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, defeating these foes by an average of 13.1 points. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-26-11 | New York Knicks -4 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
3* Never Lost NBA SMASH on Knicks -4
The Bobcats managed to erase a 13-point 4th quarter deficit to upset the Celtics last night. That defeat sets them up for a major letdown against a Knicks team in need of a win in the worst way. It took the Miami Heat 5 straight defeats before they regained their form and I believe 5 losses will be the magic number for New York as well. Consider that the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive losses under coach D'Antoni. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Knicks are the much more talented team, and they need a win in the worst way. I think they finally play with a sense of urgency and desperation to get the job done tonight. |
|||||||
03-26-11 | Arizona v. Connecticut -2.5 | 63-65 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Elite 8 *Power Play* on UConn -2.5
If UConn was able to get past the long, athletic defensive-minded Aztecs of San Diego State, it can certainly get by an Arizona squad that is much weaker defensively. The Wildcats are a great story, and they have some talent, but they don't have Kemba Walker. No player remaining in the dance has more ice water in their veins. Plus, stud frosh Jeremy Lamb is playing with extreme confidence right now and that has taken the Huskies to another level. We also can't ignore that UConn has been the best tournament team in the nation this season. Why? Walker has consistently played big in the biggest games whether it has been the Maui Invitational, Big East Tourney or Big Dance. In fact, UConn is an awesome 11-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average of 11.3 points. The Huskies are also a sick 8-0 ATS against non-conference foes this season and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Arizona. Arizona is riding high off an improbable blowout of Duke, and I don't think it can match that performance against the unflappable Huskies. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-26-11 | Butler v. Florida -4 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -4
The Gators were clearly better than BYU, but they allowed the Cougars to hang around by shooting just 45% (10 of 22) from the free throw line. That's a large departure from their season average of 66.4%. Fortunately, history tells us that terrible performance from the foul line will have the Gators very focused today. Consider that the Gators have never lost under coach Donovan when playing away from home following a game in which shot 53 percent or worse from the charity stripe. Florida is a perfect 8-0 ATS in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.0 points. In addition, the Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Butler is gritty and tough, but that won't be enough against this superior Florida squad. The Bulldogs have overachieved to this point and Florida has the right combination of size and athleticism to take them out. Lay the number. |
|||||||
03-25-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Florida State -4 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Florida State -4
FSU is big, long, athletic and deep, and these things help make it a tenacious defensive team. FSU's defense is currently hitting on all cylinders, having held its first 2 NCAA tournament opponents to 31.4% and 31.7% shooting respectively. On the season, the Seminoles rank No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage defense, holding their foes to just 36.0% shooting. The defense should be even better tonight as Chris Singleton, voted the ACC defensive player of the year by league coaches, is coming off his two best practices since breaking his right foot. He has gotten his feet wet and his confidence back in FSU's first 2 games. Now, he's ready to make even more of an impact this evening. Going along with playing great defense, FSU is an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 5.0 more boards per game than its opponent. This bodes well for us considering VCU is just 2-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams (outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game) this season. VCU is also 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Defense is something we can count on out of Florida State. The Noles bring it every night, and I expect it to be the difference here. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-25-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics -13 | 83-81 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Friday Night Blowout on Celtics -13
Charlotte has lost 10 of its last 12 and those 10 losses have come by an average of 17.5 points. This team just hasn't been the same since moving Gerald Wallace to the Blazers. Playing at home Wednesday in a game against Indiana that could really help its playoff chances, Charlotte was kicked 111-88. I just don't see this Bobcats team staying with the highly motivated Celtics this evening. Boston wants the No. 1 seed in the East to secure homecourt, but it is now looking up at the Bulls after losing to Memphis last game. That defeat has left the Celtics very hungry. Plus, Boston will show no mercy to a team that upset them last month. Prior to that defeat, the C's had won 6 in a row against Charlotte by an average of 18.8 points. In addition, the Bobcats aren't expected to have Stephen Jackson in the lineup, which means they will be hurting for offense. We'll lay the points here. |
|||||||
03-24-11 | Butler v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 61-54 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -4.5
Butler used up the last of its 9 lives against Pitt. After back-to-back miraculous victories, the defending national runner-ups are primed for a major letdown. It will be extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to pull off another upset here. Butler has been able to take advantage of teams beating themselves by taking bad shots, turning the ball over, missing free throws, etc, but Wisconsin doesn |
|||||||
03-24-11 | Brigham Young v. Florida -3 | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Sweet 16 CA$H COW (TBS) on Florida -3
This game is all about revenge for the Gators, who return all the key guys from a team that took BYU to overtime before losing in last year's Big Dance. That loss is all the motivation the Gators need to move on to the Elite Eight. Jimmer Fredette has been sensational, but I'm confident Billy Donovan will be able to slow him down this time around. I absolutely love Donovan's experience in this matchup, having been here and won it all twice before. The Gators are led by SEC Player of the Year Chandler Parsons. The 6-foot-10 forward is one of the most versatile threats in the country. The matchup problems he will be able to cause against a smaller BYU lineup will be a major key to Florida's success this evening. The Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Cougars are 30-62-2 ATS in their last 94 games as an underdog, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Jimmer and the Cougars shot lights out against Gonzaga, but recent history tells us the chances of that happening again aren't very good. In fact, BYU is 0-6 ATS after a game in which it made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons. Take the Gators. |
|||||||
03-24-11 | Connecticut v. San Diego St +1.5 | 74-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on San Diego State +1.5
It's been the Kemba Walker show to this point, but the Aztecs have the length and athleticism to make life extremely difficult on him this evening. San Diego State has been all over the glass, which bodes very well for us this evening. Consider that SDSU is 11-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Aztecs are also an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Huskies are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. SDSU has experience playing against a team with a big time scorer. It allowed Jimmer Fredette to score 30 points in an 18-point win in the MWC tournament title game, but it held everyone else in check. I think this strategy will work again tonight. Walker may get his, but it won be enough. Take the Aztecs. |
|||||||
03-23-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets -4 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -4
The fact that Tim Duncan is out is beside the point. The Nuggets have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings with the San Antonio, which means they will be extremely hungry tonight. Trading Carmelo Anthony has lifted a big weight off Denver's shoulders. The team was clearly distracted early on when his future with the team was still up in the air. Now that he's gone Denver is playing free and easy, especially at home. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 at home since the All-Star break with those 6 wins coming by an average of 23.3 points. Ty Lawson is really looking to push the ball now that he is running the show, and Denver's defense has picked up. The Nuggets are only allowing 94.7 points per game since the Melo trade - 8.4 below their season mark. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. With a big cushion in the West, the Spurs can afford to be very cautious down the stretch. Denver, meanwhile, would like to jump up and steal the #4 seed from Oklahoma City. "They (OKC) probably have too much of a gap on us," coach George Karl said. "But let's try to scare them. You never know in basketball." Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-23-11 | College of Charleston v. Wichita State -7.5 | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NIT *BEST BET* on Wichita State -7.5
Wichita State enters tonight's NIT quarterfinal with a ton of confidence after knocking off top seed VA Tech on the road Sunday. Now, the Shockers are back at home where they have been taking opponents to school all season. Wichita State is 13-4 in its own gym, where it is winning by 13.7 points per game. Nebraska came to Charles Koch Arena in the NIT first round and it left with a 27-point defeat. After defeating Dayton at home, Charleston was able to pull off an upset at Cleveland State. That win, however, isn't enough to sell me on the Cougars away from home. Just a few weeks back, the Cougars were handled by 15 and 8 points respectively by Appalachian State and Western Carolina - two teams inferior to tonight's opponent. Home court has been huge for Wichita State all season, and I expect nothing to change tonight. Lay the number as the much deeper Shockers wear the Cougars down to earn the win and cover. |
|||||||
03-22-11 | Santa Clara +2.5 v. San Francisco | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Santa Clara +2.5
This is a game the Broncos want badly. They lost both regular season meetings with the Dons, but I fully expect the third time to be a charm. Santa Clara was favored in both of those matchups, which is an indication the books felt it was the better team. I believe the Broncos are the better team, and I expect them to prove it in this highly motivated spot. San Francisco is just 17-35 ATS in its last 52 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. In addition, the Broncos are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at San Francisco and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall. It is also worth noting that the Broncos are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. Kevin Foster was 4 of 18, including 0 of 10 from 3-point range, when the Broncos fell by just 6 points at San Francisco last month. Motivated by that poor outing and beaming with confidence following a 36-point effort against Air Force, expect Foster to be the difference-maker in this one. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-22-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks +4.5 | 114-81 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Hawks +4.5
Atlanta has had Chicago's number, going 7-2 SU and ATS in this series the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this span. After winning the season's first 3 meetings, Atlanta was crushed by 18 points at the United Center earlier this month. That defeat assures us that the Hawks will not be lacking any motivation tonight. Overall, Atlanta has won its last 6 home games in this series, and those wins have come by an average of 14.0 points. The Hawks will also benefit from having a day to gear up for this one. The Bulls have the difficult task of playing this one without a day of rest and preparation. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I fully expect this trend to continue. Take Atlanta and the points. |
|||||||
03-21-11 | Oklahoma State v. Washington State -5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NIT *BEST BET* on Washington State -5
When playing away from home, Oklahoma State has been one of the worst investments in college basketball in recent years. The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in road lined games this season and 1-7 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. It is also worth noting that OK State is just 4-12 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game - after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, losing to these foes by an average score of 72.9 to 61.8. In addition, the Cowboys are an awful 5-18 ATS as a road underdog or pick under coach Ford, losing these contests by an average score of 77.7 to 65.9. Looking back further, they are 15-37-2 ATS in their last 54 games as a road underdog. The Cougars, meanwhile, are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. They get the call tonight. |
|||||||
03-21-11 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets -12.5 | 90-123 | Win | 102 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -12.5
Off a highly emotional upset win against the Thunder Sunday, expect the Raptors to fall flat on their face against a hungry Nuggets team looking to bounce back from a pair of close losses to Orlando and Miami. Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home since the All-Star break, winning those games by an average of 21.4 points. Denver has also won 7 in a row against the Raptors with those wins coming by an average of 16.1 points. The Nuggets have also won their last 6 home games against the Raptors. The last 3 home wins have come by 18, 39 and 32 points. The Raptors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-21-11 | Utah Jazz +8 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 85-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NBA *Undervalued Underdog* on Jazz +8
I have had a lot of success in recent years playing teams in the second game of a back-to-back that are coming off a loss against a rested opponent off a win. That's because odds makers tend to overvalue the rested team, and that's precisely what they have done here. Memphis is one of the teams Utah is chasing for the final playoff spot in the West, so we can expect the Jazz to leave it all on the floor tonight. Utah has had a ton of success against the Grizzlies. It has won 40 of 55 meetings (since 1996), including 8 of the last 10. The Jazz, in fact, are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Memphis. It is also certainly worth noting that Memphis is 4-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season since last season. It is also worth noting that Utah is a perfect 11-0 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games since 1996. In other words, the Jazz have been an extremely successful ATS team when scoring a lot of points. We'll take the points as Utah takes Memphis down to the wire tonight. |
|||||||
03-20-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Purdue -9 | Top | 94-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Purdue -9
VCU has strung together back-to-back impressive performances against USC and Georgetown, but its Cinderella run comes to an end here. The Rams have reached the round of 32 because of the great equalizer - the 3-point short. They were +24 points from beyond the arc against USC and +21 against Georgetown. Purdue is one of the elite defensive teams in the country. It held its 1st round opponent (St. Peter's) to 23.8% (5 of 21) from three-point range, and I expect it to force the Rams into much more difficult looks as well. Double-digit wins are nothing out of the ordinary for the Boilermakers. Of their 26 victories, 22 have come by at least 10 points. This is a quality VCU team, but it isn't as good as some of the teams we've seen in the dance in recent years. Purdue, meanwhile, boasts a very experienced and talented squad. Expect the Boilermakers to do an excellent job of defending the three and for JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore to be too much for the Rams to handle. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-20-11 | Detroit Pistons v. Atlanta Hawks -7 | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Hawks -7
Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses to Denver and Miami, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong here against a Pistons squad they have owned at home. The Hawks have won 5 in a row at home in this series with those wins coming by an average score of 94 to 86. Plus, Detroit is just 7-27 this season away from home, entering this contest with 6 straight road defeats. Those 6 losses have come by an average of 11.0 points. Atlanta defeated Detroit by 15 on the road last month, but the Pistons haven't exactly been a strong revenge team. In fact, Detroit is just 14-25 ATS when out to avenge a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pistons are losing these contests by an average of 8.5 points. Take the Hawks. |
|||||||
03-19-11 | Kansas State v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -3
K-State had its fun a year ago when it made a deep run in the dance. Now it's Wisconsin's turn. Motivated by last year's poor performance in the second round, I expect Wisconsin to cruise into the Sweet 16. K-State isn't as good as it was a season ago when Jacob Pullen benefited from partner in crime Denis Clemente. The Badgers, meanwhile, are better due to the emergence of Jordan Taylor. Wisconsin has more offensive balance and it is the superior defensive team. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-19-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Memphis Grizzlies -9 | 78-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NBA Saturday Night Blowout on Grizzlies -9
Indiana is due for a major letdown following last night's emotionally and physically draining overtime win over the Bulls. Memphis, meanwhile, finds itself in major bounce back mode following an embarrassing loss to the Knicks. Indiana has really struggled against the Grizz, going 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that Memphis has won the last 3 in the series by 11 points or more. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. This is a good spot for the Grizz against a team they have owned. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-19-11 | UCLA +5.5 v. Florida | 65-73 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tourney *Afternoon Delight* on UCLA +5.5
Getting a scare from Michigan State late, in a game the Bruins controlled throughout, should have them very focused when they hit the floor against Florida this afternoon. The Gators, meanwhile, won't have the same focus, likely riding a little too high following their extreme blowout win over UCSB. Besides the situational parameters described above, I don't think UCLA is getting the credit it deserves here. We're talking about a team that played Kansas to a 1-point game on the road and defeated BYU and St. John's when they were at full strength. Florida was blown out at home by Ohio State by 18 points and many of its good wins have come by narrow margins. The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. UCLA has been at its best against the best this season, and I expect no different here. |
|||||||
03-18-11 | Golden State Warriors +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns | 97-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +5.5
With 3 prior losses to the Suns this season, including a 24-point pounding in the last matchup, you can bet the Warriors will be hungry tonight. As if those 3 defeats aren't enough motivation, blowing an 18-point lead in a loss to Dallas last game should do the trick. The Suns have lost 4 in a row, and I expect their struggles to continue with Steve Nash at less than 100 percent. Nash has been severely slowed down by a pelvis injury. "He tried [referring to Wednesday's game at New Orleans], but he's not the same guy," coach Alvin Gentry said. "I didn't expect him to be...He's not going to be at 100 percent, and with him that's important that he has the zip." While Nash should still be decent on the offensive end, he will be a big liability on defense against Golden State's quicker and more athletic guards. The Suns are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. In addition, the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-18-11 | Georgia +5.5 v. Washington | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament *Undervalued Underdog* on Georgia +5.5
Washington was able to win the Pac-10 tourney, but only by the skin of its teeth. Two of its wins came by just 2 points and one of those was in overtime. Washington failed to cover the number in both of those games and is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6. The Huskies are not the same team that made a nice little run in last year's big dance. I've seen one example after another this season of how badly they miss Quincy Pondexter. Georgia is coming off a loss to Alabama in the SEC tourney, but that actually bodes well for us here. Consider that the Dawgs are 18-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by an average score of 69.4 to 64.6 in these spots. Also, the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Huskies barely made it out of round 1 last year, sneaking past Marquette by just 2 points. I'll take this generous number in another matchup that should go right down to the wire. |
|||||||
03-18-11 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Georgetown -5.5 | Top | 74-56 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Georgetown -5.5
Motivated by 4 straight losses to close out the season, expect this experienced Georgetown team to bounce back strong in round 1 of the dance. The Hoyas will also draw motivation from last year's shocking loss to Ohio in the round of 64. Georgetown should also get a boost from the return of Chris Wright. They've been without his 13.1 ppg since Feb. 23. Georgetown has proven that it is a force to be reckoned with on a neutral floor. The Hoyas, in fact, are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite. VCU is coming off a big win over USC in Wednesday's play-in game and that bodes extremely well for us here. Consider that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-18-11 | Oakland v. Texas -10 | 81-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Big Dance Early Money on Texas -10
Oakland has played some top notch competition this season, but it has really struggled in these games. The Grizzlies lost to West Virginia by 24, Purdue by 15, Illinois by 11, Michigan by 18 and Ohio State by 29. In other words, Texas should have no problem taking care of business here. Texas will not be lacking any motivation following a disappointing performance against Kansas in the Big 12 tourney title game. Plus, the Longhorns will draw added motivation from a 1-point overtime loss to Wake Forest in the first round of the 2010 big dance. The fact that Oakland enters the tourney on a hot streak actually bodes well for us. Consider that plays against an underdog - hot team having won 8 or more of its last 10 games, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament, are 38-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 16.7 points. Texas is an impressive 20-9 ATS in all lined games this season. The Longhorns are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Texas. |
|||||||
03-17-11 | Bucknell +10 v. Connecticut | 52-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Steal on Bucknell +10
Riding high emotionally and still physically drained from winning 5 games in 5 days to take the Big East tournament, UConn is primed for a letdown. While I think Kemba Walker and company will find a way to win this one, I think the Bison are a steal catching double digits. Bucknell is not a school to be taken lightly in this tournament. The Bison have actually won their last two first round games in the big dance, upsetting Kansas in 2005 and Arkansas in 2006. Some of you might recall that Kansas was a #3 seed in the 2005 dance. It most certainly can't be ignored that UConn is just 4-12 ATS in all first round tournament games under coach Calhoun. Also under Calhoun, the Huskies are 69-84 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points and 26-39 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive wins. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-17-11 | Wofford +8.5 v. Brigham Young | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Game of the Year on Wofford +8.5
BYU clearly isn't the same team without Brandon Davies, going just 2-3 ATS with a pair or blowout losses since his suspension. I believe the Cougars would have their hands full with Wofford even if Davies was in the lineup. Wofford brings back 4 starters from a team that played Wisconsin to a 4-point game in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. That loss is all the motivation the Terriers need to give the Cougars a run for the money. BYU has been a terrible investment in tournament play. In fact, it is just 4-13 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. The Terriers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-17-11 | Cal Santa Barbara v. Florida -13 | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament Big Chalk Blowout on Florida -13
Florida enters the big dance off an embarrassing loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament championship game. You might also recall that the Gators were defeated in OT in the first round of the NCAA tourney a year ago. Both of these defeats should serve as more than enough motivation for the Gators to run up the score on UC Santa Barbara. The Gauchos are just happy to be here after upsetting a Long Beach State squad in the Big West tourney title game that has defeated them by 16 and 18 points during the regular season. Already feeling great about what they've accomplished, the Gauchos won't be ready for a Florida squad that is a legit Final Four contender. Florida also has the good fortune of playing this one close to home in Tampa while Santa Barbara has had to make the long cross-country trip. The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games overall. The Gauchos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more. Having won two national titles, Billy Donovan knows how to prepare his kids. They'll be ready to go in this spot. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-16-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Boston Celtics -10 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NBA SMASH on Celtics -10
Boston is coming off one of its worst performances of the season, a 79-88 loss at New Jersey. With that defeat, it gave Chicago an opportunity to take over the top spot in the East last night. Motivated by that ugly defeat, and looking to reclaim a share of the East lead, expect Boston to take care of business on its home floor this evening. The Celtics already own 11 and 12-point wins over the Pacers this season. Plus, they are 6-0 at home against Indiana since Garnett and Allen arrived in Boston, winning these games by an average of 12.8 points. Indiana is coming off a huge home-and-home sweep of the Knicks, earning last night's win on a buzzer-beater by Danny Granger. It will be very difficult for the Pacers to bounce back from such an emotionally and physically draining victory. The Pacers are a lousy 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest. The Celtics are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss. Expect Boston to put the clamps on defensively on its way to a win and cover. Lay the number. |
|||||||
03-16-11 | Nebraska v. Wichita State -4 | 49-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wichita State -4
Nebraska has struggled on the road all season, going 2-10 in all away games and 1-7 in true road contests. Nebraska's road struggles extend much further back than this and those struggles have also been reflected against the point spread. Consider that the Cornhuskers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 road games and 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. Wichita State is a rock solid 12-4 at home this season with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. It is worth noting that the Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and the Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the Missouri Valley. The Shockers are deep and talented, and they play at both ends of the floor. With the home court advantage on their side, expect them to stretch this one out late. |
|||||||
03-16-11 | Miami Ohio +8.5 v. Rhode Island | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Never Lost NCAAB *Undervalued Underdog* on Miami Ohio +8.5
Miami Ohio is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. The Redhawks went out and scheduled Duke, San Diego State, Ohio State, Xavier, Cincinnati and Kansas. Playing this top notch competition helped Miami during its conference schedule and should help it during this tournament. The Redhawks actually defeated Xavier by 11 points, a team Rhode Island lost to by 27 on its home floor. What this proves is that Miami Ohio can certainly hang with the Rams this evening. The over/under line often tells us a lot about what odds makers expect the outcome to be against the spread, and I believe that is the case tonight. Fading the Rams at home when they are facing a total between 130 to 134.5 has never lost under coach Baron. This trend is a perfect 9-0 ATS all-time. It is also worth noting that the Rams are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Red Hawks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-15-11 | New York Knicks -4 v. Indiana Pacers | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3* Tuesday NBA SMASH on Knicks -4
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses, including one to Indiana Sunday, expect the Knicks to have their revenge tonight. Right away I like the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 81-40 ATS since 1996. In addition, NY has been strong on the road. In fact, it is 23-9 ATS in road games this season. It is also worth noting that the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Expect the Knicks to get their revenge. |
|||||||
03-15-11 | Dayton v. College of Charleston -5 | 84-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Charleston -5
Tough break for higher seed Dayton having to go on the road because the Opening Round NCAA Tournament games are taking place in its gym. I believe that break will cost the Flyers. In addition, it will be difficult for Dayton to bounce back so quickly after losing to Richmond Sunday with a big dance berth on the line. This is not where the Flyers want to be playing. Charleston has had a week to prepare for a game, and it should benefit from playing at home, where it is 12-1 this season with an average victory margin of 16.0 points. The Cougars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Lastly, it will be to Dayton's demise that Charleston takes extremely good care of the rock. Consider that Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season, losing to these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-14-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | 82-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses, included a brutally embarrassing 33-point loss at Miami last game, expect Memphis to bounce back strong at home against one of the worst road teams in the NBA this evening. The Clippers are just 8-26 on the road this season. They are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games, 18-42 ATS in their last 60 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. Memphis won the season's first meeting in LA by 1 point and the numbers suggest the Clippers won't have their revenge. In fact, they are on a 12-29 ATS slide in road games when looking to avenge a close loss of 3 points or less, losing these contests by an average score of 101.6 to 91.7. The Clippers are coming off a strong offensive performance (especially in the first half) against Washington in their last game, but that doesn't figure to do them any favors tonight. Consider that LA is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average score of 105.2 to 94.3 in this situation. The Grizzlies are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games overall, 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 23-6 ATS in their last 29 versus the Western Conference. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-13-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 | 77-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Warriors -6.5
Minnesota is just 5-27 on the road this season, where it is losing by an average of 9.2 points. Golden State will not be showing the T-Wolves any mercy this evening after losing in Minnesota on Feb. 27. Prior to that defeat, the Warriors had won 5 straight in the series by an average of 15.0 points. The numbers suggest this is a terrific spot to fade the T-Wolves. In fact, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and up against an opponent off a home win, are 32-9 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 9.0 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a near-perfect 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Warriors have never lost at home following a game in which they scored at least 110 points under coach Smart. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS under this parameter with an average margin of victory of 11.3 points. Take the Warriors. |
|||||||
03-13-11 | Duke -3.5 v. North Carolina | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Duke -3.5
This game is all about payback for Duke. The Blue Devils have been on a mission in the ACC tournament following a loss to UNC in the regular season finale that cost them a league title. They have looked impressive in wins over Maryland and VA Tech while UNC has been lucky to survive Miami and Clemson. Expect Duke, which has won 9 of the last 12 ACC tournament titles, to complete its mission today. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided the chalk team is playing its 2nd game away from home in 3 days, are 64-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.6 points. In addition, UNC is just 2-10 ATS in all conference tournament games under Roy Williams. It is also worth noting that the Tar Heels are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Duke, meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. Take Duke. |
|||||||
03-12-11 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -2 | 74-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NBA Saturday Night SMASH on Bucks -2
This is a letdown spot for the 76ers following Friday |
|||||||
03-12-11 | San Diego St -2 v. Brigham Young | Top | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Year on San Diego State -2
BYU is not the same team without Brandon Davies, which has me confident that San Diego State can avenge its 2 previous defeats to the Cougars this season. The Aztecs are an impressive 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Cougars are a dismal 30-61-2 ATS in their last 93 games as an underdog and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. Fredette had to go off big time for the Cougars to make the title game, and I don't see SDSU letting that happen here, especially since the Aztecs allowed him to score 40-plus during the season. Motivated by those two prior defeats, expect the third time to be a charm for SDSU. |
|||||||
03-12-11 | Washington -2 v. Arizona | 77-75 | Push | 0 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Pac-10 Tourney *Power Play* on Washington -2
Washington looked to be the better team in its matchups with Arizona during the regular season. The Huskies defeated the Wildcats by 17 at home and lost by a single point on the road. Defending tournament champion Washington, which is looking to atone for a disappointing regular season, should prove to be the better side on a neutral floor today. Plays on neutral court teams - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) after 15+ games and after a win by 10 points or more, are an impressive 29-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points. Also, the Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the Huskies. |
|||||||
03-11-11 | Oregon v. Washington -9 | Top | 51-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Washington -9
Oregon has strung together a couple wins in the Pac-10 tourney, but I believe the Ducks will run out of gas tonight. Riding high off a blowout win over UCLA, Oregon is primed for a major letdown. The Huskies got a big monkey off their back by finally defeating rival Washington State. Now, I expect them to have their revenge against Oregon. Washington defeated the Ducks by 18 points in the season's first meeting and then got beat overlooking them in the next matchup. That loss will serve as the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, playing their 2nd away game in 3 days, are 40-15 ATS the last 3 seasons. In addition, Oregon is 4-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-11-11 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Florida | 74-85 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
3* SEC SMASH on Tennessee +3.5
After losing to Florida in OT and by 1 point in 2 meetings this season, expect the Vols to break through against the Gators this evening. Tennessee has been one of the most impressive underdogs in the country in recent years. In fact, the Volunteers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Florida is just 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season. Also, Tennessee has either defeated the Gators or lost by fewer than 3 points in 11 of the last 15 meetings. Take Tennessee. |
|||||||
03-11-11 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4.5
The Bobcats, which have lost 6 in a row and were embarrassed at Portland last week, will be out for revenge tonight. Leading scorer Stephen Jackson missed the Bobcats' game at Portland. He'll be back on the floor tonight, and I expect him to make all the difference in the world. It can be good time to jump on a team when that team hasn't been covering the spread. That's because odds makers continue to adjust their lines in favor of the slumping side. With this in mind, consider that Charlotte is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 100.2 to 95.0 in this situation. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
03-10-11 | New York Knicks v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Mavericks -5.5
This is a letdown spot for the Knicks and a bounce back spot for the Mavs. It will be difficult for the Knicks to bring as much energy needed tonight following such an emotional victory on Melo's buzzer-beater last night. Dallas, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for this one after blowing a late 7-point lead and the game to New Orleans. For the books to favor the Mavs by this many points following 4 ATS defeats in a row, knowing the amount of backers New York has, I have to believe odds makers are confident in Dallas tonight. And why shouldn't they be? Dallas has won 16 of 18 meetings in this series, and it holds a big edge in the backcourt with Chauncey Billups still likely out. Dallas is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-10-11 | Missouri -3 v. Texas A&M | 71-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Big 12 Tourney *BEST BET* on Missouri -3
After taking the Aggies to OT on the road during the regular season, I expect the Tigers to have their revenge in front of a home atmosphere in Kansas City, MO. Plays on a favorite looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided they are playing their 2nd game away from home in 3 days, are an impressive 61-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.9 points. In addition, the Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Texas A&M won the regular season meeting and is ranked. Yet, Mizzou is the team laying points. Odds makers know what a big difference having the crowd support can mean in these games. Expect the Tigers to feed off the energy of the crowd on their way to a win and cover. |
|||||||
03-10-11 | Indiana +4.5 v. Penn State | 55-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
3* Big Ten Tourney *BEST BET* on Indiana +4.5
Indiana has lost 8 in a row, but with thousands of Hoosiers packed inside Conseco, coach Crean's club will feed off the fan support to cover this number. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on neutral court teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent and off at least 2 straight losses against conference rivals, are a dominant 40-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 1.6 points. The Nittany Lions have been terrific when playing the role of the underdog, but they haven't fared nearly as well when the shoe's on the other foot. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 2-5-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
03-09-11 | Arizona St v. Oregon | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Conference Tourney Super System Power Play on Oregon pk
The Ducks struggled down the stretch, losing their last 4, and they were also swept in the regular-season series with ASU. Motivated by a poor finish, and those 2 losses to the Sun Devils, expect the third time to be a charm for Oregon. Oregon proved what it is capable of this season with wins over USC, Washington State and Washington, and I expect it to play up to its potential in this same-season double revenge spot. History is certainly on our side here, considering plays on neutral court teams out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, if that foe is coming off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are an impressive 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 1-0 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that ASU has lost its last 7 games away from home. Expect the Ducks to break through against the Sun Devils tonight. |
|||||||
03-09-11 | Orlando Magic -8.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Humpday NBA Blowout on Magic -8.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing home loss to Sacramento last month, expect the Magic to show no mercy in California's capitol city tonight. Star center Dwight Howard was forced to miss Monday's game against Portland, serving a mandatory one-game suspension for picking up his 16th technical foul. I especially expect Howard to deliver in this one. Plays on road favorites out to avenging an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 81-39 ATS since 1996. In addition, the Magic are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Kings, meanwhile, are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog period and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points with the Magic tonight. |
|||||||
03-09-11 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -7 | 84-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Double Never Lost Conference Tourney Blowout on Baylor -7
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and an upset loss at Oklahoma on Feb. 2, Baylor will be ready to roll tonight. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record - are 32-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 13.3 points. I have also uncovered 2 play against trends that have never lost. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Sooners have lost these contests by an average of 16.2 points. Also, Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel in conference tournament games, losing these contests by an average of 8.3 points. We'll lay the points with Baylor in this motivated spot. |
|||||||
03-08-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Atlanta Hawks +5.5 | Top | 101-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back home losses to Oklahoma City and New York, and further motivated by a 24-point loss to the Lakers last month, expect Atlanta to give LA all it wants and more tonight. Because LA crushed the Hawks 2 weeks back, it will be much more interested in upcoming games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando. Atlanta has won 3 straight at home against the Lakers with the last 2 wins coming by double digits. In fact, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. In addition, plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive unders, are 55-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 2.9 points. Also, the Lakers are 2-14 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 96.8 to 95.4. Pound the Hawks. |
|||||||
03-08-11 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Conference Tournament Blowout on Akron -12.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and further motivated by an upset loss at Eastern Michigan last month, expect Akron to run up the score tonight. Home court will prove to be huge for the Zips tonight. They have won 7 straight on their home floor. Eastern Mich, meanwhile, has dropped its last 7 on the road. The Zips are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Akron. The Zips have won their last 3 home games against the Eagles by an average of 18.0 points. We'll lay the number in this highly motivated spot. |
|||||||
03-07-11 | New Orleans Hornets +10.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Hornets +10.5
Odds makers have overreacted to Chris Paul's expected absence with this line, especially considering the Bulls enter off an emotionally and physically exhausting win over Miami. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days against an opponent playing 6 or more games in 10 days - are 76-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points - tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days and with a winning record on the season - are 167-102 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take them catching 10-plus this evening. |
|||||||
03-07-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder +3 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 101-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +3
The Thunder were pushed to OT by the Suns Sunday, but I believe the Grizzlies used more energy in their win over the Mavs yesterday. Memphis left it all on the floor to erase an 18-point deficit and won on Zack Randolph's 17-footer with 0.3 left. It will be extremely difficult for the Grizzlies to get back up for this one after such an emotional win, especially against a Thunder team with payback in mind. OKC will be motivated by a 4-point loss at home to the Grizzlies last month. The Thunder are one of the premier revenge teams in the NBA. In fact, they are 17-8 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in road games when looking for revenge, provided they allowed their opponent to score 100 points or more on them in the previous loss. The Thunder are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Memphis. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Thunder and the points. |
|||||||
03-07-11 | Virginia Commonwealth +5 v. Old Dominion | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
3* CAA Championship SMASH (ESPN) on VCU +5
VCU enters tonight's CAA championship game with tons of momentum on its side after taking down top seed George Mason by 16 points Sunday. Plus, it has a bone to pick with Old Dominion. The Monarchs defeated the Rams last month and they also knocked them out of the CAA tourney a season ago. Those two defeats assure us that VCU will be very hungry and focused tonight. VCU has either defeated Old Dominion or lost by 4 points or less in 9 of the last 10 and 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Monarchs, meanwhile, are juts 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as a favorite. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-06-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat -5 | 87-86 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NBA National TV SMASH (ABC) on Heat -5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at San Antonio, expect LeBron James and company to come storming back at home today. As if its recent slide isn't enough motivation, 2 losses to Chicago already this season will add fuel to the fire. Right away, I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 74-38 ATS since 1996. Facing an average point spread of 5.6 points, teams fitting into this situation have won by 8.8 points on average. It is certainly worth noting that both of Miami's losses to the Bulls this season have come at Chicago. The Heat have been a different team at home, where they are 22-7 with a 9.5-point average margin of victory. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
|||||||
03-06-11 | Penn State v. Minnesota -4.5 | 66-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Never Lost Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota -4.5
It's been a disappointing season for the Gophers, but I fully expect them to put all that behind them on senior day. Motivated by 4 straight defeats and a 3-point loss at Penn State last month, expect Minnesota to take out its frustrations on a Nittany Lions squad that is just 2-8 when playing away from home this season. Minnesota enters off an extremely disappointing performance at Northwestern, but that actually bodes well for us today. Consider that Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Smith in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Golden Gophers are winning in this situation by an average score of 71.7 to 50.2. The Nittany Lions are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Minnesota. We'll take the Gophers in this one. |
|||||||
03-05-11 | Nebraska v. Colorado -4.5 | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Big 12 Game of the Week on Colorado -4.5
Motivated by a loss to the league-worst Iowa State in its last game, and a loss at Nebraska earlier this season, expect Colorado to bury the Huskers Saturday evening. Taking Colorado off a defeat has been pure gold. In fact, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. We also can't overlook the dominance of the home team in this series. The home squad is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Colorado. Colorado has been tough as nails at home where it is 14-2 this season. It has won its last two home games over two of the best teams in the league (Kansas State, Texas). Nebraska, meanwhile, has struggled on the road. The Huskers are just 1-6 in true road games. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-05-11 | Nevada v. New Mexico State -5.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
5* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -5.5
The Aggies are a much better team than their record might lead you to believe. They are especially tough at home, where they are 6-1 in league play. That lone loss came by a narrow margin to league champ Utah State Wednesday. That was New Mexico State's 4th straight defeat, and it will have the Aggies extremely motivated here on senior night. New Mexico State will be further motivated by an embarrassing 19-point loss at Nevada earlier this season. All 6 of the Aggies' WAC home wins have come by at least 8 points. They should have no trouble covering this number against a Nevada squad that is just 3-12 away from home this season. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Wolf Pack are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-05-11 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma +1 | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
4* In-state Rivalry Showdown on Oklahoma +1
I fully expect Oklahoma to bring its 8-game losing streak to an end today. While the Cowboys have been solid at home, they have been atrocious on the road. In fact, Oklahoma State has lost it last 8 road contests, and 6 of those defeats have come by double digits. The Cowboys are a dismal 19-41-2 ATS in their last 62 road games. Also, they are only 4-13 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 75.0 to 65.4. The Sooners are 11-4 at home this season, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Look for the Sooners to leave it all on the floor to come away with a win on senior day. |
|||||||
03-05-11 | Georgia v. Alabama -4.5 | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
4* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama -4.5
If Bama wants any chance of making the Big Dance, it better win today. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss at Florida, I expect the Tide to do just that. Alabama is a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.2 points. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. They are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. the SEC. In addition, Bama has never lost under coach Grant when facing a poor pressure defensive team (forcing 14 or less turnovers/game) 15-plus games into the season. The Tide are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these foes, taking them down by an average score of 67.7 to 55.3. Bet Bama. |
|||||||
03-04-11 | Golden State Warriors +9.5 v. Boston Celtics | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Warriors +9.5
The Warriors will be extremely motivated when they step on the court tonight as they look to avenge last week's 115-93 loss to Boston. In addition to this being a highly motivated spot for the Warriors, they should also benefit from catching the Celtics at a good time. The veteran Celtics' starters have been forced to play significant minutes lately due to a short and ineffective bench. Key reserve Glen "Big Baby" Davis will not be in action this evening, and the new Celtics are yet to find a rhythm. Plus, Ray Allen will be playing with a banged up leg that forced him to miss Thursday's practice. The Warriors are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. They are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Boston. Also, the underdog is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Boston is a lousy 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. It is also just 5-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, only winning by an average score of 93.7 to 91.2 in this situation. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-04-11 | Chicago Bulls +2 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +2
After such an emotionally and physically draining comeback victory over the Miami Heat last night, the Magic won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this hungry Bulls squad. Chicago knows how Miami feels, having blown a 17-point halftime lead against Atlanta Wednesday. That loss will have the Bulls extremely motivated this evening. This is an ideal spot to go against Orlando since its starters logged so many minutes last night. In fact, the Magic are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. It hasn't been good practice to fade Chicago following a defeat. That's because the Bulls are an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Bulls are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Chicago is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Great spot for Chicago. |
|||||||
03-03-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -3.5 | 103-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Jazz -3.5
Working off a strong performance against the East-leading Boston Celtics, and with 2 days to gear up, expect the Jazz to get back in the win column at home tonight. Denver has been rolling since the Carmelo Anthony trade, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets. This will be their second game in as many nights and their third game in 4 days. We should see some fatigue start to set in here, which accentuates the loss of Danilo Gallinari. Plus, both Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson have been dealing with the flu. With all this in mind, it is worth noting that Denver is 12-23 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It is also 15-28 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. More recently, the Nuggets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest. Utah has been dominant at home in this series, winning 27 of its last 31 home games against Denver. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Utah. Lastly, the Nuggets are 8-19-4 ATS in their last 31 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Jazz. |
|||||||
03-03-11 | Bradley v. Drake +1 | 63-48 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
4* MVC Tourney *BEST BET* on Drake +1
Extremely motivated by a 90-64 loss at Bradley in their regular season finale, expect the Bulldogs to pay the Braves back in the first round of the MVC tourney. Right away I love the fact that plays on neutral court underdogs coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, and going up against an opponent off a home win, are 74-36 ATS since 1997. This system is already a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. One thing you don't want to do is play against Drake when it is coming off a defeat. That's because the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points, 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing SU record and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Drake tonight. |
|||||||
03-03-11 | Oregon State v. Arizona -15 | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
3* Pac-10 Power Play on Arizona -15
The Wildcats will be hungry tonight. Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 71-49 loss at UCLA last game, and out to avenge a 1-point loss at Oregon State earlier this season, expect Arizona to roll at home this evening. The Cats will be further motivated by the fact that a win guarantees them at least a share of the Pac-10 title. Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home, where it is winning by an average of 16.6 points. Oregon State is just 1-10 when playing away from home this season, including 0-7 in Pac-10 play. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 17.7 points. In addition, Arizona is 9-1 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Beavers, meanwhile, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Arizona in this highly motivated spot. |
|||||||
03-02-11 | Utah State v. New Mexico State +7 | 58-54 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB *Underdog Shocker* on New Mexico State +7
Utah State doesn't have anything left to play for. It has already locked up a school-record fourth consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. New Mexico State, meanwhile, has plenty on the line. It can grab the No. 2 seed to earn a double-bye in the WAC tourney by winning its final 2 regular-season games. New Mexico State is undefeated at home (6-0) in conference play, and it will no doubt be jacked up to take on the best team in the league. The fact that New Mexico State enters off three straight defeats means it will play with an even greater sense of desperation here. New Mexico State defeated the Utah State Aggies in the WAC tourney last year, and it hasn't had much trouble with Utah State at home in recent years. In fact, New Mexico State has won 7 of the last 9 at home in this series. New Mexico State is 9-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 home games and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-02-11 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -3
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss to Houston last night, expect the Blazers to take out their frustration on the lowly Kings. A brutal 15-point home loss to Sacramento in January should have the Blazers taking the floor with even more focus this evening. Right away, I love the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, following an upset loss at home, are an impressive 80-39 ATS since 1996. Also, plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, following an upset loss, are 38-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Portland has won 4 straight on the road. Plus, it has had very little trouble with Sacramento. The Blazers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, including all 4 at Sacramento by an average score of 105-92 during this span. The Trail Blazers are 25-10-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite, 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games playing without a day of rest and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Kings are a lousy 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Sacramento and the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall. Bet the Blazers. |
|||||||
03-01-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -1.5
The Grizzlies want this one badly after falling at San Antonio Sunday. Considering they have won 4 straight and 12 of 14 at home, and San Antonio will be without Tony Parker, I like their chances. Manu Ginobili stepped up and recorded 18 of his season-best 35 points in the fourth quarter to help the Spurs win Sunday. I expect Shane Battier to make sure Ginobli doesn't go off again. Without Parker to break down the defense and get the Spurs out in transition, Ginobli will be counted on heavily tonight. The Grizz will pay extra attention to him to make sure the other guys beat them, and I don't think they're good enough. Memphis has been extraordinary in revenge spots. In fact, the Grizzlies are 14-5 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season. The Grizz are winning these games by an average score of 102.7 to 98.6. Memphis is also 16-5 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 103.1 to 98.7. The Grizzlies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. Western Conference, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. Take Memphis. |
|||||||
03-01-11 | Alabama +6 v. Florida | 51-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Alabama +6
I'm taking the points in a game that should go right down to the wire. Alabama lost by just 1 point to Florida in last season's meeting, and the Tide will be out to return the favor here. Alabama won the SEC West but still finds itself in a precarious position for an at-large berth. It likely needs a strong showing this week and potentially a deep run in the SEC tourney for its first Big Dance bid since 2006. With this in mind, the Tide know a win over Florida tonight would go a long way toward earning them an at-large NCAA tourney berth. Florida looks to be the class of the SEC this season, but it has not proven that it can be trusted laying points. The Gators are just 4-13 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. The Crimson Tide are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. the SEC, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. Lastly, it is worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
02-28-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -6 | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
3* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -6
This is a tough spot for Atlanta, playing the second game of a back-to-back and its 5th road game in 7 days. Denver, which has had 2 full days to rest and prepare, will be the much fresher team this evening. Expect the Nuggets to really look to push the tempo in this one to take advantage of this fatigued Atlanta squad. Denver is 24-7 at home this season, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home since making the Carmelo Anthony trade. The Nuggets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Also, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Lastly, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 96-55 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-28-11 | Northern Colorado v. Idaho State +7 | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
3* Monday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Idaho State +7
The Bengals will be lacking no motivation in their final home contest. As if a 20-point loss at N. Colorado last month isn't enough motivation, a brutally embarrassing 63-39 loss to Weber State last game will fuel the fire. The Bears have been far dominant away from home, where they are 6-10 this season. In fact, they have either lost or won by fewer than 7 points in 13 of those 16 contests. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Bengals, meanwhile, have been competitive at home, where they are 7-4 on the season. They have either won or lost by 7 points or less in 9 of their 11 home games. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, plays on a home team out to avenge a loss to an opponent in which it was held to less than 50 points and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival, are 35-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 4.3 points. Take Idaho State. |
|||||||
02-27-11 | Los Angeles Lakers +1 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA National TV SMASH on Lakers +1
The Lakers have looked like a different team since the All-Star break with 3 consecutive wins SU and ATS. The Thunder, meanwhile, enter Sunday's contest off back-to-back defeats. We played against the Thunder on Friday in the wake of a trade that sent Jeff Green to Boston, and they went down 111-88 to the Magic. While I expect a better effort from OKC today, I still have it coming up short. The Thunder are likely to have trade pickups Mohammed and Robinson in action today, but they are still expected to be without Perkins. They acquired Perkins to match up better defensively with the Lakers' size, and they will have a tough time doing that without him here. Also, the loss of Green makes the Thunder easier to defend. Now even more attention can be paid to Durant and Westbrook without a consistent third scorer. Plus, the Thunder gave L.A. all it wanted and more in the postseason last year, so the Lakers will be out to send a message. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-22 ATS in their last 27 Sunday games. Take the Lakers. |
|||||||
02-27-11 | Massachusetts v. La Salle -1.5 | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on LaSalle -1.5
Really believe odds makers are tipping their hand here by inserting LaSalle as the favorite following 3 consecutive losses SU and ATS. The Explorers' most recent defeat was a brutally embarrassing one (100-62) at Xavier. As if that loss isn't enough to get LaSalle's blood boiling, last month's narrow defeat at UMass should do the trick. The Explorers haven't had much trouble with the Minutemen lately. Prior to their January loss, they had won 4 in a row over UMass by a minimum of 6 points. LaSalle's 2 home wins during this stretch have come by 9 and 11 points respectively. 4 starters are back from the team that defeated the Minutemen at home by 11 last year. The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at La Salle. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lastly, the Minutemen are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll get behind the home team in this highly motivated spot. |
|||||||
02-26-11 | Florida v. Kentucky -7.5 | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
3* National TV SMASH (CBS) on Kentucky -7.5
Called out by Coach Cal following Wednesday's upset loss at Arkansas, and out to avenge a 2-point loss at Florida earlier this month, expect the Wildcats to put forth one of their best efforts of the entire season to cover this number. Betting against Kentucky at home has not been a smart move this season. That's because the Wildcats are 13-0 on their home floor with an average winning margin of 23.8 points. Revenge has been the ideal angle for backing Kentucky. In fact, the Wildcats are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games when looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent. Kentucky is winning by an average score of 72.5 to 61.3 in this situation. It is also worth noting that Coach Cal's teams are 10-2 ATS when looking to avenge an upset road loss to an opponent since 1997, winning by an average score of 75.1 to 60.2 in these contests. Lay the points with the Wildcats. |
|||||||
02-26-11 | St John's v. Villanova -6 | Top | 81-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -6
St. John's, which has been getting all kinds of hype during its 5-game win streak, is primed for a letdown. Villanova, which is in danger of losing 3 straight at home for the first time in 17 seasons, will be extremely hungry today. These two factors alone have me loving the Wildcats on their home floor. The Johnnies are improved under Lavin, but they are being over-hyped. This team still hasn't beaten at top notch opponent on the road. The Red Storm have been handed a 15-point loss and a pair of 25-point defeats in their last 3 road trips against top notch Big East competition (Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown). Nova fits into the category of elite Big East schools. Now healthy, expect Nova to start living up to expectations today. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on home teams listed as a favorite or pick off an upset loss to a conference rival and up against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 40-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 10.2 points. Nova has won 6 straight in this series and the last 4 wins have all come by at least 10 points. Look for the Wildcats to show St. John's it hasn't arrived just yet in this one. |
|||||||
02-26-11 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -8.5 | 68-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Oklahoma State -8.5
Off 4 consecutive SU losses and 5 straight ATS defeats for Oklahoma State, odds makers are begging for the public to lay down on Texas Tech with this line. We won't bite. The Cowboys are 12-2 at home this season and they will be extremely motivated today after getting embarrassed by 27 points at Kansas in their last game. Furthermore, Okie State will be out to avenge a 1-point loss at Texas Tech last month. The Cowboys are a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Under coach Ford, they are 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick, winning these contests by an average score of 81.3 to 69.7. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 8-1 ATS if they are at home and favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Cowboys are winning these contests by an average score of 83.4 to 67.2. Lay the number. |
|||||||
02-26-11 | Nebraska v. Iowa State | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
3* Iowa State pk
This is a game Iowa State knows it can win to snap its 10-game skid. The Cyclones played the Huskers to a 1-point game in Lincoln last month, and I like them to get the "W" this time around. While Nebraska is about as tough as anyone on its home floor, the Huskers have been about as poor as anyone on the road. Nebraska is 1-5 in true road games this season with their lone road win coming by 1 point. Iowa State is a respectable 11-6 in Ames this season, where it has defeated Baylor and played Kansas, Kansas State and Mizzou down to the wire. ISU is a dominant 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. It is winning these contests by an average score of 72.6 to 64.9. Take the Clones. |
|||||||
02-25-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Portland Trail Blazers -6 | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Trail Blazers -6
This is a letdown spot for the new-look Nuggets, coming off a big win over Boston last night. This is a bounce back spot for the Blazers, meanwhile, following Wednesday's loss to the Lakers. I wasn't very impressed with the Nuggets in their win last night. They were able to take advantage of the short-handed Celtics, but it's clear they have a lot of work to do to regain some chemistry. Having had a day to rest, Portland will be the fresher team. It also has the benefit of playing with a lineup that wasn't turned over. Denver's chemistry issues should really surface tonight in their first road game following the break. The Nuggets are 8-17-3 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog, 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 4-15-3 ATS in their last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Lastly, the home team is a tremendous 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lay the points with Portland. |
|||||||
02-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Orlando Magic -7 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Magic -7
The Magic will be extremely hungry to get back in the win column tonight following a loss to the lowly Kings. A 1-point loss at Oklahoma City last month provides the Magic with added motivation as well. The Thunder gave up a key piece of their team by trading Jeff Green to the Celtics. We're talking about a high energy player who gets the team 15 points per night. Without Green, it allows teams to focus even more attention on Durant and Westbrook. The loss of Nenad Krstic also hurts, especially tonight since Kendrick Perkins isn't expected to be available to guard Dwight Howard. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on any team coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-10 ATS since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are winning these games by an average score of 107.6 to 92.8. Lay the points. |