Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bearcats are the ONLY Bowl dog this season that was favored in every game, and undefeated dogs of more than 4 points in this role are 8-2 ATS. Cincy has also been money in the bank the last three years when taking points, going 5-1 ATS, and Luke Fickell’s ‘Cats hang right in with the big boys, going 6-0 ATS in their last six battles with .900 or better opponents. Yes, Nick’s Tide was hugely impressive against Georgia, but just one week earlier, Bama had to engineer an offensive drive for the ages merely to force OT against Auburn, then somehow prevailed in four overtimes, 24-22. And everyone thinks these guys can’t be beat? A tale of the tape shows that while the Bearcats beat all comers this season, they were 7-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes, as opposed to 1-4 ATS versus losing opposition. It fits within Cincy’s 23-12 SU and 21-13-1 ATS overall mark against .500 or better foes under head coach Fickell, who is also 26-5 SU and 17-12 ATS when undefeated, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off an ATS win of 8+ points. The fact is Alabama is just 1-4 ATS as Bowl chalk of more than 9 points, plus defending champs are just 9-8 SU and 6-11 ATS since 1980 as favorites of more than 6 points the following postseason, including 0-4 SUATS when they surrender 18 or more PPG – with every loss as a favorite. Bowl teams off a Championship dog win like Bama are 12-4 ATS, but Saban is only 2-4 ATS in his career versus undefeated foes when his team is not undefeated and coming off a SUATS win. Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young will also have to face the No. 1 team in the nation in Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and the No. 3 team in the nation in Red Zone Defense. Remember, the Bearcats led Georgia 21-10 after three quarters in last year’s Peach Bowl before losing 24-21 on a last-second field goal by the Bulldogs. These same Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role. If all of this isn't enough, consider this tidbit that playing against any college bowl team that allows fewer than 18 PPG, and won its previous game by more than 7 points is 12-1 ATS since 1980. Then we can cap it all off with the fact that Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role. |
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12-31-21 | Bulls -4.5 v. Pacers | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units COVID-19 has hit the Pacers, who will have to play this game without Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte and Jeremy Lamb. When these two teams played Sunday, the Bulls won by eight points, but could have won by a lot more had Duarte not caught fire in the third quarter to help the Pacers at least stay somewhat in the game. The Bulls have scored at least 130 points in three of their last four games, and since most of the team has already had COVID, we don’t need to worry about any last-minute surprises. The Bulls could run away with this one. |
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12-31-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-3 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First place in the Pacific Division to end the calendar year will be on the line on when the surprising Anaheim Ducks face the Vegas Golden Knights in a New Year's Eve matinee in Las Vegas on Friday. Vegas, which has won six of its last seven games and nine of its last 11, has rebounded from a 1-4-0 start to its injury-plagued season and enters the contest with a one-point lead over the Ducks, who had the second-fewest points in the entire NHL in last year's pandemic-shortened 56-game regular-season. Anaheim has scored points in 10 of its last 11 games (6-1-4) including one in a 2-1 overtime loss to visiting Vancouver on Wednesday night despite having star rookie forward Trevor Zegras (eight goals, 25 points) enter COVID-19 protocol on Tuesday where he joined Sam Steel and Max Comtois. Left wing Adam Henrique (lower body) missed his eighth straight game and forward Max Jones (torn pectoral muscle) missed his 30th while top defenseman Cam Fowler left the contest in the first period after losing an edge and crashing hard with his right shoulder into the boards. Consider that the road team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. |
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12-31-21 | Niagara +2 v. Quinnipiac | 68-77 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Purple Eagles have been great ATS. They are 7-4 ATS including 6-2 ATS away from home. The Bobcats on the other end are 1-4 ATS at home. They are going to be without one of their best players, Savion Lewis, for the rest of the season. The Purple Eagles play at a very slow pace. The Bobcats have struggled in low scoring games. They are just 2-4 ATS in games that have had less than 145 points. This is the Bobcats first real test without Savion Lewis. The Purple Eagles defense will be able to hold the Bobcats enough to win this game straight up. |
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12-31-21 | Oilers v. Devils +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No one in the NHL has been as singularly dominant in 2021 as Connor McDavid, who is on the verge of completing the most impressive calendar year by a player this century. On Friday afternoon, the New Jersey Devils would be content to get another glimpse at what could be in store in 2022 for Jack Hughes. Two of the NHL's most exciting young stars are slated to face off in a New Year's Eve matinee Friday, when Hughes and the Devils are scheduled to host McDavid and the Oilers in Newark, N.J. Both teams were off Thursday after resuming their seasons with road games Wednesday, when the Oilers fell to the St. Louis Blues, 4-2, and the Devils edged the Buffalo Sabres, 4-3. Consider that the Oilers are 2-7 in their last 9 overall. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sun Devils come into this one being 3-9 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 1-5 ATS as dogs, and the horrible history of Pac-12 Bowlers versus Big Ten foes: 4-16 ATS, including 1-5 ATS as dogs versus the Big Ten, along with 1-11 ATS if not favored by 6 or more points… and the word we’re looking for after writing that is: ugh. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 postseason contests and Vegas Bowl history favors the favorites, 7-3 ATS in the last 10. |
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12-30-21 | Flames v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -183 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames are scheduled to play Thursday night against the Kraken in Seattle, 19 days since their last game. They had seven contests postponed because of COVID-19 concerns since a 4-2 loss to the visiting Boston Bruins on Dec. 11. After sweeping two games in Southern California at the start of the month, the Flames went winless in their next four (0-3-1) before their season was paused as 20 players tested positive. Consider that the Flames are 3-11 in their last 14 vs. Western Conference. |
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12-30-21 | Idaho State v. Montana -10.5 | 54-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Idaho State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. While Montana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. |
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12-30-21 | Tenn-Martin v. Austin Peay -5.5 | 65-62 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Tennessee Martin is 20-42 ATS in their last 62 games following a straight up loss, 16-36 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 15-36 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog. While Austin Peay is 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In addition the Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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12-30-21 | Alabama A&M v. Lipscomb -8.5 | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Alabama A&M is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games, and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. |
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12-30-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Islanders | 1-4 | Loss | -142 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Sabres' performance Wednesday is any indication, the Islanders could be in for an inconsistent return. Buffalo, which had six players -- defenseman Jacob Bryson, center Dylan Cozens, left winger Zemgus Girgensons, right winger Vinnie Hinostroza, center Mark Jankowski and left winger Jeff Skinner -- as well as head coach Don Granato in COVID-19 protocols Wednesday night, had just three shots on goal in the first while falling behind 2-0. The Sabres tied the game on a pair of goals by Tage Thompson in the first four minutes of the second period but couldn't collect the tie-breaker and gave up a pair of goals by the Devils in a span of 2:22 early in the third. New Jersey ended up outshooting Buffalo 42-22. Consider that the Islanders are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference. |
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12-30-21 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | 3-9 | Loss | -205 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Florida is 1-4 in their last 5 overall and 0-4 in their last 4 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. While Tampa Bay is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, 7-1 in their last 8 games following a win, and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. |
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12-30-21 | Predators v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winger Patrik Laine, out since Nov. 3 with an oblique strain, returned to practice earlier in the week, but Columbus coach Brad Larsen refused to say if Laine would play on Thursday night. The Blue Jackets are 6-3-0 in the nine games that Laine, who had 44 goals in the 2017-18 season, has played. Consider that the Home team is 38-18 in the last 56 meetings. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Week The East Lansing Knothole Gang is a crackling 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowls, 3-0 ATS versus the ACC in the last three, and the B1G Boys have been bullies against the ACC in bowl season, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Big-moneyed Head Coach Mel Tucker engineered the biggest one-season turnaround in the long history of Spartans’ football and despite all the attention Walker III earned, don’t sleep on talented QB Payton Thorne, especially if receiver Jalen Nailor is able to bounce back from injury and join fellow wideout Jayden Reed. Consider as well that .700 or greater College Bowl ‘Mission Teams’ – teams who missed a bowl game last season after having been a bowler each of the previous three seasons – are 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina +11.5 v. North Carolina | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 1 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units North Carolina runs it well, 5.8 YPC, and the Gamecocks give up 5.1 per carry. But before you paint your face Carolina Blue, think of the following: South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, 5-1 ATS as bowl dogs, and the SEC is 10-2 ATS as bowl dogs in the last five years. UNC is 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the SEC, ACC Bowl favorites of three points or greater are 2-8 ATS. North Carolina also as sub .750 bowl favorites who allow more than 25.5 PPG are just 14-34 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss. We’ve written this before, motivation and just being happy to be in the bowl game is huge, and South Carolina exceeded expectations this year, while North Carolina didn’t come close. |
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12-29-21 | Mavs v. Kings +2.5 | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sacramento Kings will attempt to double up on Dallas, starting when they host the Mavericks in the opener of a three-day, two-game home set Wednesday night. The Kings will open the series on the second night of a back-to-back, having outlasted the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder 117-111 on Tuesday night to snap a three-game losing streak. They will also tangle with the Mavericks on Friday night. Dallas, which has opened a five-game trip with a loss at Utah and a win at Portland, will see a new-look Kings starting lineup that featured Marvin Bagley III against the Thunder. Bagley, who had started just one game previously this season, responded to a promotion from interim coach Alvin Gentry with nine points and 10 rebounds as part of one of the Kings' best team efforts of the season against the Thunder. Consider that Dallas is 7-21-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings. |
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12-29-21 | Jazz -7 v. Blazers | 120-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating 2 Units The Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, who face each other Wednesday night in Rip City, handled adversity a bit differently in their most recent games. Playing without the injured Donovan Mitchell, the Jazz cruised to a 110-104 victory over the Spurs in San Antonio on Monday night. As he did in Mitchell's only other missed game this season, reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson stepped up to fill in some of the offensive void with a team-high 23 points. He had 30 in Mitchell's previous miss. Rudy Gobert, whose three blocked shots moved him into the NBA's all-time top 50 in the category, led a Jazz defense that sparked Utah's win. Their defense was especially effective in the second quarter while holding the Spurs to 16 points to take a 10-point lead into halftime. Consider that Utah is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. |
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12-29-21 | Flyers +1.5 v. Seattle Kraken | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kraken announced Monday that Mason Appleton had been put into the COVID-19 protocol, joining fellow forward Ryan Donato on the list as well as defensemen Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, Carson Soucy and Vince Dunn. Hakstol said Oleksiak and Soucy should be able to return Wednesday, but that will still leave the Kraken short-handed. Goaltender Carter Hart and centers Sean Couturier, Derick Brassard and Scott Laughton will be unavailable Wednesday, leaving the Flyers thin down the middle of the ice. Center Morgan Frost and right wing Jimmy Hayes were removed from the protocol list Tuesday and could be available to play. The teams met Oct. 18 in Philadelphia, with the Flyers coming away with a 6-1 victory as Brassard had a goal and two assists. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -4.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 179 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month Oregon got as high as No. 3 in the CFB Playoff rankings before getting spanked twice in two weeks by Utah, which destroyed any hopes for a playoff appearance or a New Year’s Six Bowl. It’s bad enough that the down-and-out Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowls, but the Pac-12 is 0-5 ATS versus the Big 12 of late in post-season matchups, and Bowl dogs of 15 or fewer points off a conference loss of 28 or more are 3-9 ATS… that’s a lot of fugly numbers at work here against the quackers in this matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in bowl games in which the Sooners sport the better record. In fact, OU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Pac-12 foes in games in which the Sooners own the better record. With both head coaches bolting for greener pastures – Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley is off to USC, while Oregon’s Mario Cristobal landed at Miami Florida – the feeling here is the Sooners have much more unfinished business at hand in this contest. The Clincher: Pac-12 bowlers coming off a SUATS loss are 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS since 2015. |
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12-29-21 | Lakers +6 v. Grizzlies | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. While the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. |
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12-29-21 | Western Illinois v. Iowa -18 | 71-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iowa gets a third tune-up Wednesday night, hosting Western Illinois in Iowa City before the Hawkeyes return to Big Ten play next week. The Hawkeyes (9-3, 0-2 Big Ten) have handled nine of 10 nonconference foes this season, but couldn't hang with then-No. 17 Iowa State and lost both of their Big Ten contests earlier this month. They haven't played since leading by as many as 37 points in a 93-62 win over visiting Southeast Louisiana on Dec. 21. Iowa is 76-5 in nonconference home games dating to 2012. |
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12-29-21 | Nevada v. Kansas -17.5 | 61-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas hopes to keep riding the flashy contributions provided thus far by Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun. Agbaji explored early entry into the NBA draft before opting to return, while Braun has retooled his game to become a more complete player. Agbaji has ranked among the nation's top scorers all season; he is putting up 22 points per contest. Braun, meanwhile, does a little bit of everything, averaging 16.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He is shooting 62.6 percent from the floor, largely because of improved capacity to score off drives and fast breaks. Consider that Kansas is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. |
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12-29-21 | Devils v. Sabres +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Devils, meantime, are 3-12-3 in their past 18 games since winning three in a row Nov. 6-11. They headed into the pause following a 3-2 home loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Dec. 19 and are on this skid despite Jack Hughes returning from missing over a month. "I was really happy with the team coming out of training camp, start of the season, first 15, 16 games," Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald said. "Our record showed, we were rewarded for our structure, our commitment to structure, our commitment to details, our commitment to each other. We just need to find that team." Hughes has three goals since returning, but the Devils are 1-9-1 in those 11 games, a stretch in which they have lost by more than one goal seven times due to possessing one of the league's least-productive power plays (12.9 percent). |
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12-29-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Panthers | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At goalie, the Rangers placed backup Alexandar Georgiev on the COVID-19 list. The Rangers are expected to go back to starting goalie Igor Shesterkin, who hasn't played since Dec. 3 due to injury. Shesterkin has been brilliant this season, going 13-3-2 with a 2.05 goals-against average and a .937 save percentage. He is on a five-game win streak, and he beat the Panthers in New York the only time he has faced them this season. Star winger Artemi Panarin tops the Rangers in points (33), and reigning Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox leads New York in assists (26) as he continues to build his case as the NHL's top defenseman. Other Rangers to watch include Chris Kreider, who leads the team in overall goals (18) and power-play goals (11), streaky center Mika Zibanejad and hard-hitting defenseman Jacob Trouba. The Panthers, who have not played since Dec. 16, will enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak. They haven't won a game since Dec. 10, and they haven't won a home game since Dec. 4. |
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12-28-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -175 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Kings were beginning to find their footing when the NHL paused the schedule because of COVID-19 outbreaks throughout the league. Los Angeles will try to pick up where it left off when it plays host to the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night in its first game since Dec. 19. The Kings had strung together a 5-2-1 stretch before the league announced an extended holiday break, helping them offset a 1-4-3 mark over the previous eight games. When the Kings returned to practice Sunday, they welcomed back veteran defenseman Drew Doughty, who was in the NHL's COVID-19 protocol when the schedule was paused. Shortly before Vegas returned to practice on Monday, the team announced that coach Pete DeBoer and forward Brett Howden had entered COVID-19 protocol. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia +5 v. Minnesota | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units WVU head coach Neal Brown has a little catch phrase of his own to motivate his troops in “Trust the Climb”, but the Mountaineers will have a major hill to scale tonight after going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. Still, Brown is 4-0 SU in his career in Bowl games (including three while at Troy), and that’s what counts today. In addition, Brown is 7-0 ATS as a non-conference dog versus .500 or greater foes, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus opponents coming off an underdog win. The Hillbillies check a lot of boxes in this matchup, and they get the call. |
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12-28-21 | Fresno State v. Boise State -4.5 | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Boise State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. While Fresno State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. |
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12-28-21 | Lehigh v. Maryland -21.5 | 55-76 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lehigh (1-9) enters Tuesday's game on a five-game losing streak, having most recently lost to Albany 68-52 on Dec. 21. The Mountain Hawks are 0-2 against Power Five opponents this season. Consider that the Mountain Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. |
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12-28-21 | Cavs -5.5 v. Pelicans | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers are full of crazy stats this season on the wagering side of things. They are 25-7-1 ATS, including 12-4 ATS on the road. To add one more sparkling stat to the pile, they are 9-0 ATS as favorites. That could spell trouble for the Pelicans, especially with Brandon Ingram (Achilles) listed as doubtful and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the health and safety protocols. |
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12-28-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-5 | Win | 107 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Lightning are having to overcome much adversity, and more has been added in the past 24 hours. Holding the top spot in the Atlantic Division, the Lightning learned that when -- perhaps if -- they host Montreal on Tuesday night as the NHL reopens play, they will do so without one of the game's top goaltenders, his backup and a top defenseman. With Lightning coach Jon Cooper already in COVID-19 protocol, the club announced Sunday that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, backup Brian Elliott, defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and assistant coach Rob Zettler have been sidelined by the virus. All reportedly are either asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms. Forward Anthony Cirelli and defenseman Andrej Sustr were added to the list Monday morning. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Play of the Day Despite being the primary focus of every defense, Brad Roberts is the Falcons workhorse, averaging over 106 YPG with his longest run of the season being only 33 yards. People tend to forget the Falcons in the bowl season too, but AFA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU victories, 4-1 ATS when an opponent limps in off a double-digit loss (like UL is), and 4-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points. Also consider that playing on any Military bowl team with a greater than .666 win percentage versus an opponent not coming off a double-digit win is 18-2 ATS since 1980. |
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12-27-21 | Mavs v. Blazers | 132-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting Lillard's sidekick, CJ McCollum, back would help, especially with a rugged schedule ahead. After seeing the Mavericks, the Trail Blazers will face the Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers, Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat in their next four games. The good news is McCollum could see action in at least some of those games. The club announced over the weekend that he will be re-evaluated this week in hopes that he'll be cleared to play after suffering a collapsed lung earlier in the month. He has missed the last eight games. The Trail Blazers also are without five players in the league's medical protocols, including Robert Covington, who played 31 minutes in the loss at New Orleans. The teams will meet for the first time this season. The home team has lost four of the last five meetings in the series, with the Mavericks prevailing 132-92 on a trip to Portland last March, when Doncic outscored Lillard 37-19. Consider that the Trail Blazers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest. |
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12-27-21 | Jazz -6.5 v. Spurs | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz head to San Antonio after their 120-116 victory over Dallas on Christmas Day. Mitchell led Utah with 33 points, his ninth 30-point game of the season. Bojan Bogdanovic scored 25 points, Mike Conley hit for 22, and Jordan Clarkson and Rudy Gobert added 12 and 10 points, respectively, in the victory. Gobert also grabbed 11 rebounds for the Jazz, who have won three straight games and 11 of their past 13 outings over the past month. Utah dominated the COVID-compromised Mavericks, who just didn't have the firepower to keep up late in the game. The Jazz have not lost a player to coronavirus this season. Consider that the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins +3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game. |
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12-27-21 | Bulls -5.5 v. Hawks | 130-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set with Lonzo Ball (COVID-19) and Alex Caruso (foot) both out. That’s not exactly ideal. However, they are in tremendously better shape than the Hawks, who could be missing 10 players in the health and safety protocols. The biggest names who aren’t expected to play are Trae Young, John Collins and Danilo Gallinari. The Bulls could run away with this one. |
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers +4.5 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The loss to the Hornets was Denver's second straight and a tough one to take. The Nuggets led by 19 in the third quarter and 17 at the start of the fourth but were outscored 38-13 in the final 12 minutes. Denver is just 5-6 in the month and is feeling the absence of several players. Jamal Murray has not played yet, Michael Porter Jr. had back surgery and will miss the rest of the year and several players have been in and out of the lineup recently. Aaron Gordon missed Thursday's game, and rookie Bones Hyland has been battling ankle issues. Hyland gutted out 14 minutes after rolling his right ankle on Wednesday night in Oklahoma City but had just three points. Consider that Denver is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. |
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12-26-21 | Pacers v. Bulls -7.5 | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers missed the postseason with a 34-38 record last year, after playing in NINE of the previous 10. The Pacers opened 1-6 and will enter this Christmas Day game in Chicago at 14-19, two games out of the "Play In" cut line. The Bulls were 31-41 last season, missing the postseason for the FOURTH consecutive year. However, the Bulls have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free-agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. Like many other teams in recent weeks, the Bulls have had severe COVID issues but still enter this contest 19-10, battling 22-13 Milwaukee for the Central Division lead. The Bulls currently hold down the No. 2 seed in the East. |
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12-26-21 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day After not having much success in tight games over the first part of the season, the New Orleans Pelicans have turned their fortunes around during their current four-game winning streak. Over the Pelicans' first 29 games, they were just 1-9 in "clutch" games -- games where the score is within five points in the final five minutes. But starting with New Orleans' 113-110 win in Oklahoma City on Dec. 15, a game decided by Devonte' Graham's 61-foot shot at the buzzer, the Pelicans are 3-0 in such games. Today, New Orleans tries to keep its momentum going with a return trip to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are coming off a 113-101 loss Thursday in Phoenix. Consider that OKC is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. |
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12-26-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +3.5 | 117-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Philadelphia 76ers to be successful, Joel Embiid must play at an ultra-high level every night. Anything less and the Sixers can be defeated -- especially with a shorthanded roster due mostly to health and safety protocols. Philadelphia dropped a 98-96 decision to the depleted Atlanta Hawks on Thursday. The 76ers will look to rebound on Sunday against the host Washington Wizards. Embiid recorded 23 points and 10 rebounds before missing a potential game-tying jumper at the buzzer against the Hawks. Clearly, the Sixers need more. The Sixers currently have four players in health and safety protocols -- Danny Green, Georges Niang, Andre Drummond and Shake Milton. It's unclear if any of them will be cleared to face the Wizards. Consider that Philadelphia is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Starter Teddy Bridgewater is out, enter Drew Lock. The former starter knows that he is 11-5 ATS in starts with the Broncos when Denver is coming off a loss, including 8-1 ATS from Game Ten out. The Broncos hit the road in the first of three straight travelers sporting a 7-2 ATS mark in these games. Meanwhile, the Raiders return home after Monday’s makeshift game in Cleveland, where they edged the Browns 16-14, to keep their playoff hopes alive. The problem is the Black-and-Silver are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at Allegiant Stadium, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when hosting .500 or greater opponents. |
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12-26-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bengals | 21-41 | Loss | -100 | 98 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Baltimore was a team with 17 players on injured reserve, five more on the COVID list, plus four more starters who were neither on IR or COVID-IR but were inactive. By the end of Sunday’s game, six of their top seven corners from the start of the season were gone, so perhaps playing for the win, rather than going up against Aaron Rodgers in overtime was the lesser of two evils. Cincinnati returns home off a gutsy 5-point win at Denver. As a result, they hold down the top spot in the AFC North, and would play Indianapolis should the playoffs begin this week. The problem for the Bengals today, though, is their feeble 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS mark as division home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as well as QB Joe Burrow’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in the NFL when Cincinnati is coming off a win. And with that it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: Baltimore is 13-6-1 ATS as a division road dog under head coach John Harbaugh, including 9-0 ATS in its last nine games. |
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12-26-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Falcons | 16-20 | Win | 104 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jared Goff’s best effort of the season may prevent Detroit from landing Kenny Pickett. Perhaps this performance will persuade the team to keep him for one more year. Goff misfired just five times, going 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s hair-raising 30-12 win over Arizona as 13-point home underdogs. It was just the 8th time since 1980 that a home dog of that size has managed to pull the rug out on its pricey guest. And for what it’s worth, six of those seven teams hit the road in their next contest where they went 4-1-1 ATS. With that we call in the Falcons, a team that is 0-9 ITS (In The Stats) since their Bye week in October. In addition, Nate Davis of the USA TODAY reports that the Lions’ upset win over Arizona marked just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a team with fewer than two wins beat a 10 win-team. Detroit’s 4.6 Yards Per Rush is its highest since 1997, and it fits like a glove into Atlanta’s 4.3 YPG Rush Defense. |
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12-26-21 | Chargers -10.5 v. Texans | 29-41 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bolts left a bushel full of points off the scoreboard, while ‘analytically’ deciding to go for the jugular on 4th downs instead of taking the 3-point layups. Here’s hoping a wave of common sense hits the Chargers like Omicron before their playoff hopes suddenly need a 9-1-1 booster shot. The good news today is the Chargers are 31-12 SU and 33-8-2 ATS all time versus the AFC South, including 20-3-2 ATS since 2009. The other is Houston’s recent 0-4 ATS ledger against the AFC West as well as its 1-7 SUATS mark at home in games when coming off a win. |
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12-26-21 | Giants v. Eagles -10.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas held Glennon to a 24.8 passer rating and forced three picks last week as he is 6-25 in his NFL career starts, including 1-16 in his last seventeen. Things were so bad for the G-Men last week that WR Kenny Golladay led the team in receiving with three catches for 53 yards, while Sterling Shepard tore his Achilles on the fi nal drive of the game when he collapsed on a non-contact injury. Ouch. With the Eagles on the road to recovery following their 2-5 start to the season, and anxious to avenge an ugly 13-7 loss at New York a month ago, we only have eyes on the ostracized birds today as they improve to 5-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive division bouts. |
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12-25-21 | Colts +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 81 h 17 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | 116-107 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors will be without Jordan Poole, who had 28 points in the loss at Phoenix, and Andrew Wiggins, who contributed 19 to the home win, due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols. Meanwhile, the Suns will have leading scorer Devin Booker, who suffered a hamstring strain in the second quarter of the first meeting and sat out the rest of the win, as well as the Suns' next seven games, including the rematch with the Warriors. Booker has gotten more productive by the game in his three outings since returning to the lineup last Sunday, scoring 16, 24 and then 30 points in Thursday's 113-101 home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Cam Johnson is among the Suns happy with the holiday scheduling, including the early start. Consider that Phoenix is |
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12-25-21 | Celtics v. Bucks -6.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks received an early Christmas present in the form of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo clearing the NBA's health and safety protocols on Friday. However, Antetokounmpo's status remains up in the air for Milwaukee's Christmas Day showdown against the visiting Boston Celtics on Saturday afternoon. With Antetokounmpo sidelined for a fifth straight game in COVID-19 protocols Thursday, the Bucks pulled out a 102-95 road win against a Dallas Mavericks squad playing without superstar Luka Doncic. Khris Middleton finished with 26 points and seven assists and Jrue Holiday had 24 points while dishing out seven helpers to pace Milwaukee. Recently signed center DeMarcus Cousins contributed 22 points and eight rebounds. It was the Bucks' second straight win and third in five games without Antetokounmpo. Whether or not Milwaukee has its star back in time to face Boston in the nationally televised showdown, the Bucks remain a confident bunch. Consider that Boston is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals from Muncie, Indiana, won the Arizona Bowl as 8-point underdogs last season, but keep in mind that good fortune seldom comes calling two years in a row, as these teams are just 9-24 ATS the following bowl campaign when they field a team that owns a defense which allows more than 21.5 PPG. And when it comes to out-gaining foes on the field in 2021, BSU has bottomed out with a horrible 1-11 ITS (In The Stats) record – worst of all bowlers. The red birds have also gone 2-4 ATS in away games and 2-4 ATS as dogs, compared to the Panthers’ sparkling 5-1 ATS road record, and a 5-2 ATS mark as chalk. Down the stretch, Georgia State closed on a 6-1 SUATS run versus Ball State’s 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS effort. The deluge of bad news continues for BSU as the Cards have had their wings clipped in the last seven Bowl outings, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. GSU was favored one other time in a bowl game in which they cruised, 39-21, over Western Kentucky last season. With the Montgomery game site just a jaunt down I-85 from Atlanta, we look for Shawn Elliott’s Panthers to ride their 5-yards per rush ground attack to a big win here, and give the MAC another black eye in this year’s Bowls. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida +6.5 v. Florida | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 178 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Florida will be without leading receiver Jacob Copeland, who entered the transfer portal – and he is unlikely to be the last Gator to opt out of this bowl game, as players have not meshed with the lame-duck coaching staff. All of which sets up what we like to call “The Gus Malzahn Revenge Bowl.” The former Auburn head coach knows the SEC like the back of his hand, and was 12-5 ATS as a dog against SEC foes when playing with a revenge chip on his shoulder (the Gators beat his Tigers as 2.5-point home dogs in 2019, 24-13). Gus is also 21-11-1 ATS in his career when looking to get even, including 16-3 SU and 14-4 ATS versus sub .888 foes. With Florida approaching terminal velocity in its stunning descent, we’re all-in against a big-brother foe that went 1-6 SU in games against fellow bowl teams this season. |
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12-22-21 | San Diego +9 v. UNLV | 57-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line is too big for UNLV to cover. They're hard to trust after failing to cover against Omaha and my model makes this a 6 point game. The San Diego Toreros should be able to keep this within double digits. They just covered against NAU on the road, which is a hard task, and are looking to build some momentum. Grab the value in the points here. |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets -6.5 v. Thunder | 94-108 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first game of a back-to-back set for the Thunder, who have been notorious with regards to resting players in such situations. There have been no reports of anyone sitting out yet, but that could change as the day moves along. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets could dominate this matchup, even if the Thunder are at full strength, so I’ll jump on this now. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -3.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Tigers managed to outgained only three of their twelve opponents, and were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against FBS foes who managed to rush the ball for at least 200 yards against them. For what it’s worth, the last time the Tigers tackled a Military team during Bowl season, they were left dragging their tails in a 35-13 loss to Navy as 6.5-point chalk in 2009. However, the absolute bottom line today is that Army can REALLY rush the football (second in the country behind Air Force), while Mizzou cannot stop it (120th in yards allowed per carry). As we’ve told you in the past on these pages, military teams tend to shine during the Bowl season, going 37-14 ATS overall since 1980. Better yet, these military bowlers are 6-0 ATS since 1980 when coming off a SU favorite loss. |
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12-22-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Celtics | 101-111 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland won't have Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley or Isaac Okoro, but this line still feels steep. The Cavs have won six in a row and covered 14 straight. They were favored in their previous five games. Inconsistent Boston also is missing some frontcourt stalwarts and is just 5-7 ATS as a home favorite. Grab the points. |
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12-22-21 | Arizona +2.5 v. Tennessee | 73-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are one of the last undefeated teams in the country. They average the most points in Division I at 91 PPG on 49.7 percent from the field, top ten in the nation. The Wildcats also have a dominant defense only allowing 62.8 PPG on 36.1 percent from the field, 5th lowest in the country. The Volunteers are a very good opponent. They are ranked 19th in the country but they have shown that they will struggle against good teams. They only scored 44 points in regulation against Texas Tech and just 53 points against Villanova. The Wildcats offense is too good to be held to such a low number. Their defense is going to slow down the Volunteers as they win this game. |
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12-22-21 | St. Thomas +3 v. Denver | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tommies are the better team in this matchup. They are the best three point shooting team in the country. They make an average of 13.7 threes per game on 40.3 percent from downtown. The Pioneers defense is really bad. Kenpom ranks their defense at 315th in the country. They have been struggling recently. They are just 1-7 SU in their last eight games. The Pioneers should be struggling again in this game. The Tommies offense should lead them to a win over the struggling Pioneers. |
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12-22-21 | Idaho State v. UC-Santa Barbara -13.5 | 43-56 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm a bit surprised that this has moved in favor of Idaho State, a team that has yet to cover the spread in any of its eight games. I'll gladly take the extra value as it moves the game into playable range for the model. I make this one a 16.5 point win for UC Santa Barbara and theres a good chance that Idaho State can lose by 20+ any time they step on the court. I'd take this play even if the model didn't like it, but getting the line movement makes it a must for me. Fade the Bengals until they prove that they can cover a spread. |
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12-22-21 | Campbell -4 v. NC-Wilmington | 58-65 | Loss | -116 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These schools are less than a two hours drive away from one another and this should be a good game between rivals. My model has the line a bit too small for Campbell. I am making this a six point spread so grabbing this -3 line at Caesars is good value. Wilmington is 2-6 ATS and probably best described by beating a bad Delaware State squad by just 4 points. Take the stronger Campbell team to cover. |
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12-22-21 | Hartford v. Sacred Heart -4 | 78-71 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Had a rare losing day in NCAA hoops on Tuesday but also my picks were affected by unexpected absences. COVID is very much a factor in this sport, too. What the heck are you gonna do? This is the first game of Wednesday and Hartford has just one victory. The Hawks allow 76.2 points per game, which is important because Sacred Heart has yet to win a game this year when scoring under 70. The Pioneers have taken the past two in this series. Hartford is 1-5 ATS in its past six as a dog. Sacred Heart is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 as a favorite. This spread has started to rise at some books so let's lock it in. |
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12-21-21 | Nicholls State +6.5 v. Oregon State | 61-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fading the Beavers here. They have lost 10 straight games only covering the spread in one of them. They are one of, if not, the worst teams in a Power Five conference. The Colonels have been playing really well this season. They will have the best player on the court in this game, Ty Gordon. Gordon has scored at least 22 points in each of his last five games. He should dominate again today and lead the Colonels to an easy cover. |
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12-21-21 | Santa Clara v. San Jose State +6.5 | 79-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans have been playing great basketball. They are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games. They have also been great at home as they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their home stadium. The Broncos have been struggling recently. They are 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. They are also significantly worse on the road. In the Broncos four games away from home, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS. The Spartans will be able to slow down the Broncos and cover this spread. |
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12-21-21 | Pistons +8 v. Knicks | 91-105 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons finally broke their 14-game losing streak with a win over the Heat on Sunday. While they did lose 14 in a row, eight of those losses were by nine or fewer points. When the Pistons have been underdogs by between eight and 11 points this season, they are 6-1 ATS. The Knicks are dealing with an outbreak of COVID-19 that has them shorthanded, and they have lost eight of their last 10 games. While I think the Knicks win this matchup, I think the Pistons can keep things relatively close. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UTSA’s Conference USA colleagues nodded off during bowl season last year, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS, doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence in Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners, as the loop brings a 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS mark in post-season performances dating back to 2017. In addition, their 1-3 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) mark in the last four games of the season, as the pressure to remain undefeated was building, throws up a big red flag for us. Consider that bowlers who have won 15 or more of their previous 22 games, and are coming off a season-ending SU favorite loss (one-exact: read the Aztecs), are 28-8-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win when not favored by 6 or more points. The fun attack of UTSA has had a great season, but the Aztecs will have all their arrows sharpened and we’re not fading that. |
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12-21-21 | Xavier +7 v. Villanova | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love this Xavier team. The Musketeers have talent from top to bottom. They are 9-2 ATS including 3-0 ATS as an underdog. This is a really big game for their Big East regular season championship hopes. The Wildcats have been struggling against good teams. They are 1-4 SU and ATS against teams that Kenpom ranks in the top 50. Kenpom ranks the Musketeers at 23rd. The Musketeers are going to give the Wildcats a tough time. This is going to be a fun game to watch. The Musketeers will play good enough to cover this spread. |
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12-21-21 | Manhattan v. The Citadel -2 | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The SportsLine Projection Model and a few others believe The Citadel should be favored quite a bit more than one point. Both teams played Monday in this holiday-type event at The Citadel with Manhattan winning and the host school losing. The Bulldogs' Hayden Brown was selected as the Southern Conference Preseason Player of the Year in a vote by the league’s head coaches and he has played like it, averaging 20.2 points and 8.4 rebounds. The Jaspers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win. The Bulldogs have covered six straight following an ATS loss. |
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12-20-21 | Western Illinois v. Denver +8.5 | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread seems about 3-4 points too high as the teams open Summit League play. The Pioneers are one of the better defensive clubs in the league so should be able to hang around in their own gym. Grad transfer K.J. Hunt is the only Summit League player that currently leads his team in scoring (15.8 ppg), rebounding (4.5 rpg), assists (3.6 apg) and steals (1.2 spg). Denver is 8-1 ATS in its past nine as a home dog. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Vikings last 10 games have been decided by 8 or fewer points. And while it appears the 4-9 Bears look like they’ve gone into early hibernation, the fact remains they were still mathematically alive in the playoff race entering this weekend. Given Minny’s not so mighty 1-10 ATS record in its last eleven Monday Night road games, we’ll have our hand out looking to take as many points as we can get tonight. |
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12-20-21 | Rockets +7.5 v. Bulls | 118-133 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston is clicking offensively and visits a short-handed Bulls team that gutted out a five-point win over the Lakers on Sunday. DeMar DeRozan could certainly go off for 38 like he did Sunday but Chicago is struggling defensively, which should keep this competitive. Back the Rockets to cover for the ninth time in their last 11 games as underdogs. |
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12-20-21 | St. Thomas -2.5 v. Nebraska-Omaha | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tommies have been impressive in their first Division I season. They are really good offensively. The Tommies are the best three point shooting team in the country. They make an average of 13.6 threes per game on 40 percent from downtown. The Mavericks are terrible. They are 0-10 against Division I teams losing by an average of 20.8 PPG. This spread is way too low. The Tommies should dominate this game and easily cover this small spread. |
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12-20-21 | Eastern Michigan +8 v. Valparaiso | 55-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Eagles have been over performing this season. They are 7-3 ATS this season. Their fast pace is something that some teams struggle with. I expect for Valparaiso to be one of those teams. The Eagles won’t allow them to get set defensively as they get out in transition often. The Beacons are a bad home team. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in their three home games against Division I teams. This spread is too big to stay off. The Eagles should be able to do enough to cover this spread. |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baltimore loss vs Green Bay yesterday would vault Cleveland into first place in the AFC North, while also being the No. 4 seed in the current NFL playoff picture, with a win tonight. They will likely have to get by without the services of RB Kareem Hunt (ankle), but D’Ernest Johnson has filled in admirably during his frequent absences this campaign. Las Vegas’ 0-5 SUATS record the past three seasons in games after tackling Kansas City works in Cleveland’s favor, as does the Raiders rotten 1-4-1 ATS record in this series when coming off consecutive losses. Don’t look for the Browns to blow this golden opportunity. |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 102 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Brady is just 2-4 ATS at home in his career in division games when coming off a SUATS home win, including 0-3 ATS against foes coming off a win. In addition, the Bucs bring a sour 0-4 ATS mark into this fray in the first of consecutive division duke-outs. On the opposite side of the field, the Saints kept their playoff hopes alive with a big win at the Jets last week, knowing they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division roadies. The Saints’ offense was a Sean Payton special, with all Taysom Hill runs and short passes and Alvin Kamara touches. Hill, despite a broken middle finger, misfired on just six occasions, as he seldom went downfield. He finished 15-of-21 for 175 yards, but did most of his damage on the ground. He scrambled 11 times for 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Kamara, meanwhile, rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 attempts. He also caught four passes for 25 receiving yards. That’s what you get with the Saints these days. Tie in Payton’s 47-26-3 ATS all-time dog log, including 21-4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off consecutive wins, and we’ve suddenly got the makings a live, double-digit division dog tonight. We seal the deal knowing that playing on any NFL away team in a division game on Sunday Night that is coming off a win of more than 10 points if they’re facing an opponent coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year is 11-1-1 ATS since 1980. |
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12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 105-100 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers finally broke their seven-game losing streak with a win over the Hornets on Friday. That win came at home. They have been awful on the road, posting a 2-10 record there ATS. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11 games with all 10 wins coming by at least seven points. Look for them to keep rolling here. |
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12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -8.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Deebo Samuel is practicing fully this week after being hampered in Week 14. Fred Warner, the 49ers' most important defensive player, also is primed for a big game after dealing with an ankle injury.. When the Falcons step up in class, they usually get hammered. Witness their 40-point loss in Dallas, their 25-0 blanking at the hands of New England, and a pair of double-digit defeats to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS versus winning teams. The 49ers are putting it all together for a playoff run and should win by double digits. |
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12-19-21 | Fairfield +5.5 v. Massachusetts | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stags have been impressive so far this season. They are 9-1 ATS including 7-0 ATS on the road. The Minutemen have a terrible defense. Kenpom ranks them as 318th best defense in the nation. They are allowing 78.5 PPG on 48.5 percent from the field against low tier offenses. The Stags are the better team. They should be favored. I expect the Stags to have an easy time offensively and cover the spread (and maybe win straight up). |
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12-19-21 | Titans +1 v. Steelers | 13-19 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has been outscored 78-16 in the first half of its past four games. If the Steelers start slowly again, they'll have a hard time coming back against Tennessee's above-average defense. Bud Dupree has been activated and will face his former team. Look for Tennessee to run the ball effectively with D'Onta Foreman -- the Steelers rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA -- as the Titans improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs. |
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12-18-21 | Baylor -6.5 v. Oregon | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears are the number one team in the country and for good reason. They are running through their opponents as they have an average margin of victory of 26.8 PPG. The Bears are 7-2 ATS so far this season. On the other side, the Ducks haven’t been good this season. They were ranked 13th coming into this season but they are just 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS. In their one game as an underdog (5 points), they lost by 29 to Houston. Their road doesn’t get any easier today. They’re outmatched in this battle. Take the Bears to win big. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall +4 v. UL-Lafayette | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Napier went a sparkling 40-13 in his tenure there, which if he replicates at the University of Florida, will make him a nearly Spurrier like hero. (The Head Ball Coach will always be #1 in Gainesville). Still, we have concerns, such as a flat 0-4 ATS in the last four bowl games, and 2-6 ATS mark when playing off rest. Meantime, Marshall is quite the post-season juggernaut, going 12-3 SUATS in bowl games since 1998 and 4-0 SUATS when coming off double-digit losses. Herd QB Grant Wells can fling the ball around the building quite well, ranking 12th in passing yards this season with 3,453 yards and 16 TDs, and if that’s not working, the spectacular Rasheen Ali can take over a game. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents. |
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12-18-21 | Warriors v. Raptors -8.5 | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors are basically punting this game. After playing Friday, they have decided to rest Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. and Andre Iguodala. That’s in addition to Jordan Poole being in the health and safety protocols. They are going to have a difficult time generating points with the likes of Damion Lee, Gary Payton Jr. and Nemanja Bjelica leading the way. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State v. Utah State +7.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Typically, Oregon State is tough on the Mountain West, cashing in on 6 of the last seven skirmishes. We have backed OSU many times this season, so why are we turning our backs on them this time, you rightfully ask? Since 1984, bowl favorites who won just two games the season before are a heartburn-inducing 4-11 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a defeat. Finally, consider that PAC-12 bowl teams coming off a win are 1-21 ATS since 2015. |
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12-18-21 | Marquette v. Xavier -9.5 | 71-80 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was surprised to see this line so low. My model makes this line 14.5, and thats with some rather conservative estimation. There's a legitimate chance that this finishes closer to 20 than it does to 10. The distribution of expected results is heavily on the side of a Xavier cover. Trust the model and take the home favorite to get it done. |
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12-18-21 | UAB +6.5 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cougars come into this one 9-16-1 ATS against teams who surrender 24.5 PPG or less. Coach Sitake is 6-17 ATS as a favorite in games where the Cougs give up 21.5 PPG or more, and a frightening 1-11 ATS in the last 12. Motivation is HUGE in these smaller bowl games, and we believe UAB’s will be loaded with it. Coach Bill Clark literally rose this program from the dead a few years ago, and the Blazers are a tough out against the giants, going 7-2 ATS versus foes .800 or better, including 5-1 ATS as the underdog. Not only that, the Blazers come from Conference USA, which will be undergoing massive changes soon (like it or not), but one steady stat says CUSA squadrons are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 7-0 ATS when coming off an ATS win. |
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12-18-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois -19 | 54-71 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love betting on Western Illinois almost as much as I love betting against Eastern Illinois. My model has a huge edge, indicating that this should be a 24 point win for the Leathernecks. I even saw Erik Haslam's model has this at 40 points. I think that must be a bug in his system, but there's a non-zero chance it's a real projection. EIU is that bad. They lost to Missouri by 28 and I think Western Illinois is a better team. Lay the points. |
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12-18-21 | CS Bakersfield +14 v. Colorado | 46-60 | Push | 0 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm returning about three points of value on this game for Bakersfield. My model is indicating that Colorado should only be favored by ten points rather than thirteen. The Buffaloes are 1-8-1 ATS at home this season and have looked disappointing. Colorado is 8-3 SU but have only once beaten a team by more than 13 and that was against lowly Maine. Cal State Bakersfield should keep this close enough to cover, take the points. |
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12-17-21 | Lakers v. Wolves -2.5 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As of this writing, we know that the Lakers are without Russell Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, Avery Bradley and Dwight Howard in COVID protocols, although apparently Malik Monk is out of them. I'll take the fully healthy Timberwolves (at least healthy as of this writing) at home. The Wolves are 5-2 ATS in their past seven as favorites and will be amped up to face LeBron. |
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12-17-21 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies come into this matchup on a hot streak, winning nine of their last 10 games. All nine of those wins came by at least seven points, as well. Meanwhile, the Kings are dealing with an outbreak of COVID-19 that is expected to sideline De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, Marvin Bagley III and Alex Len. That’s in addition to Richaun Holmes (eye) being listed as doubtful and Tyrese Haliburton (back) listed as questionable. This could get ugly for the Kings in a hurry. |
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12-17-21 | Hornets +3 v. Blazers | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s difficult to read too much into the Hornets performance lately given how decimated their team has been by an outbreak of COVID-19. Their situation is starting to improve, though, with both Terry Rozier and Mason Plumlee back in the fold. Even LaMelo Ball, who is listed as questionable, could make his return for this game. Portland, on the other hand, has lost 10 of their last 11 games with their only win coming against the rebuilding Pistons. Six of those 10 losses came at home. With CJ McCollum (lung) still out, it’s going to be tough for the Trail Blazers to pull out a win. |
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12-17-21 | Cal Poly +15 v. Fresno State | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread is too high for this total. The Mustangs have covered each of their last four games. These teams play at such a slow pace that covering this spread sounds near impossible. The Bulldogs offense has been struggling. The Mustangs will be able to keep this game close enough to cover this spread. |
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12-17-21 | North Dakota State v. Pacific | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Frankly, I think Pacific should be about a four-point favorite. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Tigers winning by 11. That seems a bit off. It's the first-ever meeting between these schools. Pacific has been great defensively, holding opponents to just 41.9 percent from the field. North Dakota State is 1-4 in true road games. The Bison have used five different starting lineups already. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven. |
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12-17-21 | South Alabama v. Tarleton St | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams just played on Tuesday where the Jaguars won by seven points. The Texans are terrible offensively. Kenpom ranks them as the 280th best offense. They average just 61.6 PPG on 40.5 percent shooting. They are also one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country. They rank 354th in three point percentage and 346th in three’s made per game. The Jaguars will be able to score too many points for the Texans to keep up with. Lay the points. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois +11 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams returning to the same bowl in which they lost last year are 0-5 SUATS since 2004. For another, they’re taking on a Northern Illinois bunch that engineered a rags-to-riches story of their own in 2021. After head coach Thomas Hammock took over the Huskies, they went winless (0-6) during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but shook off a 1-2 start this year with an 8-2 finish, blasting Kent State to claim their second MAC championship since 2014 (NIU recently signed Hammock to a contract extension through 2026). The sled dogs pulled more upsets (6) than any FBS team this season, and finished No. 1 in the nation in 4th Down Conversion Percentage, and No. 9 in Red Zone Offense. Yes, we realize Northern Illinois has gone 0-6 SUATS in bowl games since 2012, but consider that FBS bowl teams who were winless the previous season are 5-1 ATS. The bottom line is the Huskies are overjoyed to be here, while Coastal Carolina – with a QB that is less than 100% – might not be. |
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12-17-21 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bonnies have been struggling with the absence of their best player, Kyle Lofton. Lofton is a big loss for the Bonnies as he was playing 39 minutes per game. The Bonnies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games with Lofton missing their last three. Now they have to face the Hokies who have been playing really well this season. They are 7-4 SU and ATS this season including 5-1 SU and ATS at home. Kenpom ranks the Hokies 31st in Division I. The Hokies will take advantage of the Bonnies struggles and cover this small spread. |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -9 | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Devin Booker is expected back Thursday and DeAndre Ayton is playing. While the Suns have been effective without Booker, they become one of the best teams in the NBA with him, along with Golden State and Utah. The Wizards are having some problems lately. They’ve lost seven of their last nine (1-8 ATS). Take the Suns to cover. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out. |
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12-16-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Maryland-Baltimore County -2 | 62-51 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Definitely don't love the board today -- but this number has come down enough where we will roll with the Retrievers at home. They enter on a three-game skid but all away and against better teams than UNC Greensboro, which is 5-0 at home but 1-2 on the road and in neutral site games. The Retrievers are the top scoring team in the America East at 78.2 ppg and also lead in three-point field goals made (93), free-throw percentage (80.3) and assists per game (13.5). It's a veteran team with four seniors and a junior starting. The Retrievers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as favorites. |
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12-15-21 | New Mexico State +8.5 v. Washington State | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This spread is too high. I make these teams about even with the absence of Cougars center Dishon Jackson who is out with a thumb injury. The Aggies have won each of their last three games, all of which were on the road. The Cougars are coming off of a straight up loss in a home game where they were favored by six. They should struggle again in this game. The Aggies will be able to keep this game close enough to cover the spread. |
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12-15-21 | Morehead State v. Xavier -15.5 | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am very high on this Xavier team. The Musketeers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The Eagles are not a good team. They are just 1-4 ATS in their five games as an underdog including 0-3 ATS as a double digit underdog. The Musketeers are a much better team. They have beaten up on bad teams and will again in this game. Lay the points. |
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12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not going to lie, rolling with the Pacers here, given what they have done to me this season, makes me feel a little uneasy. With that being said, the Bucks are in rough shape with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donte DiVincenzo and Wesley Matthews all in the health and safety protocols. To complicate matters, Khris Middleton (knee) is listed as questionable. If he’s out, this line could swing significantly. I’ll take a chance and lock in the Pacers now. |
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12-15-21 | Bellarmine v. South Dakota -1 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units South Dakota is 6-0 at home this season and 59-9 all-time at its fairly new Coyote Sports Center. After sitting out last season in the pandemic, Aussie Hunter Goodrick has come back strong for the Coyotes and is averaging 7.2 points and 7.7 rebounds. All six of Bellarmine's losses are against good-to-great competition (Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga to name three) but all of its wins are against garbage. Only two of Bellarmine’s 11 games have had single-digit scoring margins. |