Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-06-24 | Northern Illinois v. Miami-OH -5 | 62-59 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Redhawks have won two of their last three home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 71 points per game. They’ve also taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 79 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won’t give the Huskies a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Huskies have struggled defensively and they’re giving up more than 84 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Redhawks in this game. The Huskies have lost 10 of their last 11 games and seven straight road games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 76 points per game on the road. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good, but their rebounding has been good and it will give them a chance in this game. They’ve been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Redhawks, who average more than six steals per game at home. The Redhawks have done a good job defensively at home, holding opponents under 68 points per game, and will keep the Huskies’ offense in check. Go with Miami (OH) to cover the spread |
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02-06-24 | Buffalo +12.5 v. Bowling Green | 73-87 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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02-05-24 | Kansas v. Kansas State +5 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This is a great buy low moment for the Wildcats. K-State has lost their last four games, but this rivalry matchup will have the team ready to go, and playing at home will give them an additional boost. Kansas State still has their top three players available for this game, Carter and Perry can get hot from the perimeter at any time, and Kaluma plays bigger than his 6'7 frame. Kansas State also has McNair to battle Dickinson inside. McNair is 6'11 and 265 pounds, he has the size to matchup with Dickinson and limit his production. McCullar is a strong scoring guard, but Kaluma and Carter can take turns defensively, each with different defensive strengths to slow down the top scorer in the league. The Wildcats have an elite defense, they rank 26th in defensive efficiency and will be able to slow down the Jayhawks at home. |
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02-05-24 | Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans | 100-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New Orleans Pelicans (28-21; 24-21-1 ATS) snapped a three-game skid last Wednesday, outlasting the Houston Rockets 110-99. Two days later, the Pels wrapped up a four-game road trip with a 114-113 victory at the San Antonio Spurs. The Pelicans barely edged the lowly Spurs as firm 8.5-point favorites. |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia -5.5 | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Virginia Cavaliers have proven to be a top team in the ACC this season, sitting in second place. The Cavaliers have won six consecutive conference matchups and have no signs of slowing down for the Miami Hurricanes. Virginia has the second-best defense in college basketball right now, surrendering 57.8 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot less than 40% from the floor. This will be a game-changer when facing the high-caliber Miami offense. When looking at matchups against other high-scoring offenses, the Cavaliers' defense has not shown any signs of breaking. For example, they shut down the Clemson offense — averaging 79 points per game — keeping them at 65 points on the night. The Cavaliers' defense will win this game and add their seventh consecutive ACC win. |
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02-04-24 | Bucks v. Jazz | 108-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee checks in after playing in Dallas last night. It’s also a series in which the Jazz have dominated, winning 132-116 as an 8-point dog in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Bucks went into the Big D last night with a sorry 8-14 ATS road ledger this season, including 0-4 SUATS in non-conference clashes. Finally, Utah is 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS at home against Milwaukee, including 3-0 SUATS when the Bucks arrive without rest. |
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02-04-24 | Stanford v. Arizona -17 | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The main catalyst in this matchup is Zona’s stunning 18-point road loss at Stanford as 12.5-point chalk on the final day of 2023. Wildcats’ head coach Tommy Lloyd has done an outstanding job in his 2-plus seasons in Tucson, currently 77-16 overall but a second loss to the Cardinal tonight would remove a lot of that luster. Don’t look for that to happen, though, as the Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a double-digit loss. As for Stanford, the Cardinal arrive off a same-season revenger with Arizona State, and they’re just 1-6 SUATS away versus a conference foe after tangling with the Sun Devils. Arizona has no room for error here, not with road games at Utah and Colorado to follow, so expect the Wildcats to deliver a merciless pummeling at the McKale Center tonight |
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02-04-24 | Raptors v. Thunder -8.5 | 127-135 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have won two straight games and nine of their last 10 home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 122 points per game while making over 50 percent of their shots. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Raptors have struggled defensively and they play worse on the road, giving up more than 120 points per game, and will have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. The Raptors have lost six of their last seven games and six of their last seven road games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 116 points per game on the road. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Thunder and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Thunder, who average more than eight steals per game. The Thunder have done a great job defensively in recent games and held their last three opponents under 105 points per game, so expect them to keep Toronto’s offense in check. Go with Oklahoma City to cover the spread. |
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02-04-24 | Providence v. Villanova -4 | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Wildcats have barely kept their heads above water in Neptune’s sophomore campaign, currently 11-10 overall with a five-game losing skid. However, three of those losses came by margins of 1, 7 and 5 points, and the Wildcats will be hungry to avenge a pair of losses to the Friars last season. Meanwhile, 14-7 Providence is 5-12 ATS versus conference foes looking to avenge two losses from the previous season, including 1-9 ATS at home. The Friars also show up today off a double revenger with UConn (5-13 ATS at home after Huskies) with another revenger on deck against Creighton (0-4 ATS before the Bluejays). To guarantee that Villanova will send Providence straight to the bottom of the deep blue sea here, let’s turn to the fact that Villanova is 6-0 ATS home with three-plus days of rest and double revenge-exact from the previous season. |
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02-04-24 | Purdue v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 75-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is an exciting matchup of the elite squads of the Big Ten. Purdue is solid but can be beaten on the road. They are only 3-2 in their last five Big Ten road games including a loss to Nebraska. Wisconsin has won eight out of their last 10 games. Purdue and Wisconsin have each lost to Nebraska. Purdue is one of the best scoring teams in DI but Wisconsin is just behind. Purdue is averaging 126 points per 100 possessions compared to 121 points per 100 by Wisconsin, ranking them seventh in the country. Wisconsin has scored at least 83 points in four of their five Big Ten home games. Purdue is dominant due in part to the rebounding however, Wisconsin has the size to compete. The Badgers are conceding fewer opponent rebounds per game. |
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02-03-24 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Gonzaga | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units St Marys enters on a 9-game win skein with the best overall and conference record this season. After struggling through a 4-3 December, Gonzaga is playing more like the Zags of old, going 7-1 SU since with that lone defeat coming by just one point at Santa Clara. But even though Mark Few’s Bulldogs are riding a five-game win streak, they’re just 2-5 ATS in this series with the worse record. And when they take on a conference foe off back-to-back wins, the Zags are a weak 5-9 ATS, including 0-3 ATS this season. At 13-6-1 ATS with LTKO revenge, look for the Gaels to keep their foot on the pedal as the better team avenges last season’s LTKO loss. |
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02-03-24 | Lakers +4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Lakers will be looking to even the score against New York from a five point home loss as five-point home chalk back in December, knowing they are riding an 8-1 ATS streak as non-conference dogs in same-season revenge. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite coming off a same-season revenge win over the Pacers. Finally, playing on LeBron James when his team’s win-loss is .500 is 8-1 ATS. |
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02-03-24 | Mississippi State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 67-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Mississippi State is playing with revenge from an 8-point home loss this season, and a pair of setbacks last season – including an LTKO defeat. That should find the five-returning starter Bulldogs chomping at the bit for payback today and we won’t have to worry about a letdown following their in-state rivalry battle with Ole Miss as MSU is often in a celebratory frame of mind after taking on the Rebs (27-14-1 ATS the last 20 years, including 18-7-1 ATS as a dog). The Tide is also one leg up on 6-2 Auburn, who waits on deck, and Bama’s lackluster 2-4 ATS mark in games before Aubbie adds to the Crimson woes here. Finally, MSU is 15-10 ATS versus greater than .666 foes with head coach Chris Jans, including 7-0 ATS during the regular season when the Bulldogs sport a sub .700 win percentage. |
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02-03-24 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Baylor | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears got whacked three times by ISU last season – all as a favorite – and it was capped off when the Clones sent the Bears packing in the first round of the Big 12 tourney. Even so, Baylor owns a 17-3 outright record as a host in this series and is 4-0 ATS coming off a win when seeking LTKO revenge. Iowa State has not fared well on the conference road after beginning play in early January, losing SU to BYU by 15 points and to Oklahoma by 8 points, and edging TCU by a single point to avoid a three-game road losing streak. Things get worse when we look strictly at conference road games versus LTKO avenging foes, where Iowa State is a paltry 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS. |
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02-03-24 | Utah State +5.5 v. San Diego State | 67-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The bad news for Utah State first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle is he knew it would take some time to build a team with zero returning starters from a 26-9 squad. The good news is it took only two games. After opening the campaign 1-1, USU has gone 18-1 since as they enter tonight’s targeted triple revenger, and as a result they reside atop the MWC standings. San Diego State took a different path to today’s clash: following a 13-2 start to the season, the Aztecs have become little more than a middling squad, going just 2-3 since. They have also fallen two full games behind the Aggies in the conference race and must face a Utah State team that’s 3-0 SUATS with LTKO revenge when owning a greater than .750 win percentage. |
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02-02-24 | Hornets v. Thunder -15.5 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC's most glaring flaw on both ends of the floor is rebounding. The defense also tends to send opponents to the free throw line. The Hornets are a subpar rebounding team and the worst team at getting to the free throw line. They aren't equipped to take advantage of the Thunder's weaknesses. That is why this game should be a blowout, especially since it's in Paycom Center where OKC is a much better squad. The Thunder are 18-6 (16-8-0 ATS) at home. That, paired with all of the other clear edges, won't make for a competitive game. Take OKC to cover the spread. |
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02-02-24 | Ohio State v. Iowa -5 | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ohio State was ice-cold in the point spread department, riding a 1-6 ATS skein before a pair of games against Northwestern and Illinois on Saturday and Tuesday. Turns out the Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS after taking on the Illini, plus they’ve got a same-season revenger up next against the Hoosiers (1-6 ATS before IU). OSU’s most grievous sin was beating Iowa in the ‘donkey’ round of last year’s Big Ten tourney: The Hawkeyes are 23-10 ATS with revenge in this series, including 16-3 ATS when OSU sports a .750 or fewer win percentage. We close the book with the Buckeyes’ alarming 0-4 ATS mark as a visitor this season. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL playoff dogs with the better win percentage (Lions) are 31-21-2 ATS since 1980 – but only 6-22 SU and 11-15-2 ATS when taking more than three points, featuring 0-15 SU and 3-11-1 ATS since 1996. On the other side of the field, the 49ers’ trip to the NFC title game will mark their 19th since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. That number is a record, and it’s four more than the next closest team in the NFC. It is also San Francisco’s third straight trip to the NFC title game and fourth in the past five seasons. Today’s win would give them an NFL-best 38th postseason win, one more than the Patriots and the Packers. For now, Frisco is 24-6 SU and 21-9 ATS from Game Ten out the past three seasons, while NFC No. 1 seeds in the championship round arriving off a win-no-cover are 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. And don’t forget that 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan is now 5-0 at home in the playoffs. |
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01-28-24 | Suns v. Magic +1.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns are 16-27-2 against the spread as they come into this game. Likewise, they are 9-10-1 against the spread on the road. The Suns are just 8-16-1 against the spread when they have equal rest. Moreover, they are 3-9-2 against the spread against nonconference teams. While The Magic are 28-17 against the spread. Additionally, they are 13-7 against the spread at Amway Arena. The Magic are 17-4 against the spread when they have had equal rest. Also, they are 9-6 against the spread against nonconference teams. The Magic are almost finally healthy again with Wagner back. Therefore, they can play to their full potential. Banchero is their best player. Currently, he is averaging 22.5 points per game while shooting 45 percent from the field. Wagner is averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the field. Thus, he will be a focal part of the team. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs +4 v. Ravens | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In four career stats against the Ravens Mahomes stats are: 98 for 139, 1,253 yards, 12 TDs, and 2 INTs. All of which is good for a prodigious 122.1 Quarterback Rating. Not to mention Mahomes’ 9-3 SU and 12-1 ATS dog log in his NFL career. . The AFC Championship will be Patrick Mahomes’ 17th playoff game. With it, he has almost an entire regular season’s worth of experience. At 28, he has played in nearly as many playoff games (16) as Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy combined (17). He is also 13-3 in his postseason career, including 4-0 SUATS versus .777 or greater foes and 4-0 SUATS against teams with an equal or better record. Meanwhile, Jackson is 1-3 SU in his career against the Chiefs and 0-3 SUATS in the postseason, coming off a win of 24 or fewer points. And then there is Andy Reid and his 3-0 SUATS record in head-to-head games with John Harbaugh when Kansas City enters off a pair of outright wins, scoring 33-plus points in each contest. |
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01-28-24 | Purdue v. Rutgers +10.5 | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Scarlet Knights’ fast 5-1 start to the season has cooled off (they ride a 5-7 skein into this fray) but these guys are Jonesing to put a Tony Soprano-style hit on the Boilers to make amends for their first-round loss to Purdue in last season’s Big Ten tourney. The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS in this series, including 0-7 ATS the last seven meetings. They’re also staring dead ahead to a double revenge affair with pesky Northwestern, who handed Purdue one of its two losses this campaign in a 92-88 OT upset at Evanston. That’s not particularly good news for the Boilers, who own a 5-9 SU and 4-8 ATS ledger in games before facing the Wildcats. In this latest episode of The Zach Edey Show, the big guy gets his stats, but the Scarlet Knights pocket the cash. |
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01-27-24 | Lakers +1.5 v. Warriors | 145-144 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers have won four of their last six games. They have been on a roll offensively in recent games, scoring more than 130 points per game in their last three games while making over 54 percent of their shots and 46 percent of their three-pointers. They’ve done a good job rebounding the ball and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Warriors have struggled defensively this season and they gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Lakers in this game. The Warriors have lost three of their last four games and four of their last six home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 117 points per game at home. Their rebounding has been good and it will keep them in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball, which will give the Lakers, who averaged more than nine steals per game in their last three games, easy-scoring opportunities. The Lakers aren’t great defensively, but they’ve done a better job in recent games and will keep Golden State’s offense in check. Go with Los Angeles to cover the spread. |
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01-27-24 | VCU v. Davidson +1.5 | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The younger McKillop has gotten his team off to a decent 12-7 record this campaign but he can regain major credibility if he manages to halt VCU’s 3-game series win streak (one of those losses came to the top-seeded Rams in the first round of last year’s A-10 tourney). Virginia Commonwealth sits in third place in the conference race and is riding a 4-game win streak entering tonight’s contest. Unfortunately for the horned ones, they’ve gone 1-5 ATS in this series of late, including 0-3 ATS when going into revenge. First-year head coach Ryan Odom inherited a team devoid of experience (zero returning starters), so we look for Davidson to improve on its 4-0 SUATS mark at home with a sub .615 win percentage when playing off a previous home loss and facing a foe coming off a pair of SUATS wins. |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The fact that the Nuggets struggle mightily in this series is an influencer, too, given their naughty 6-20-1 ATS mark. And yes, the gold-diggers return home off their worst loss of the season in a 122-84 beatdown at the Knicks, yet they are a paltry 2-5 ATS as home chalk of more than 4 points when coming off a 5-plus road trip. On the other side of the court, Philly has won six of its last seven games and is 8-2 ATS against greater than .600 foes this season, as well as a stellar 15-5 SU and 4-6-1 ATS this campaign when coming off a win and facing a foe coming off a loss. Finally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in this series with revenge from a single-digit same-season loss. |
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01-27-24 | Iowa +2 v. Michigan | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The regression has continued this season as Michigan currently owns an embarrassing 7-12 record, including a 1-7 SUATS disaster in the last eight overall contests. Remember, this display of futility is set against the backdrop of the Wolverines football program winning the College Football Playoff championship on January 8, so every loss by Howard means the scrutiny intensifies. Following a 2-point loss at home to Maryland on Wednesday, Iowa finds itself going 3-3 in January after a 3-3 effort in December. However, the deuces are wild in this matchup where the Hawkeyes limp in off a pair of home losses seeking revenge from a double-digit loss suffered at Hawkeye-Carver Arena last season in the only meeting between these two Big Ten rivals. Iowa head coach Fran McCaffrey excels at getting even, going 9-4 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a loss of 3 or more points and 7-4 ATS away with revenge versus a foe coming off a pair of losses. More trouble for the Wolves looms on the horizon with a trip to Michigan State to face the hated Spartans, as Michigan brings a 1-4 ATS mark into this showdown in games before MSU. Finally, Iowa is 8-1 SUATS with conference revenge under head coach Fran McCaffrey in games in which Iowa owns a winning record and its opponent owns a losing record. |
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01-27-24 | Kansas v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
CBB Conference Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units If you’ve been an ISU backer this season, you probably think there’s a printing press in Hilton Coliseum that cranks out the bucks after a home game as the Cyclones are 12-2 ATS on this floor. They’ll also be looking to square things up from a loss to KU in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament last season. No. 7 Kansas is loaded with talent like most Jayhawks squads under head coach Bill Self, but they’ve had two uncharacteristic stumbles of late, losing on the road to UCF and West Virginia. That’s music to our ears considering the Jayhawks have not dominated this series, going 7-12 ATS, including 0-5 ATS when ISU sports a .777 or greater win percentage. The Cyclones have performed well taking points at home, going 5-1 ATS the last half dozen games and will look to lean on their 4-0 ATS success at home with conference tourney revenge against .800 or greater opponents. Finally, Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger is 9-1 ATS at home with the Cyclones as either a dog or a favorite of 3 or fewer points, including 7-0 ATS with a win percentage of .777 or greater. . |
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01-27-24 | Georgia +8.5 v. Florida | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Following a 2-3 start that had fans reaching for their brown paper head sacks, UGA suddenly caught fire to go on a 12-2 winning run. However, the O’Connell Center will be revved up and rabid today considering it was their Mike White who left Gainesville to take the job at Georgia last year “due to a toxic environment created by the fanbase and fear it would begin to affect his five young children” (we shudder to see some of the signs in the stands). As a result of White’s departure, the Gators were forced to hire Todd Golden and the arranged marriage produced a 16-17 record. He’s off to a better start this season, going 13-6 overall but Florida has split its last six games on the scoreboard and has this standing in its way here: the series host is currently on an incredible 1-14 ATS slide, including 0-11 ATS the last eleven games! That’s all we need to know in this bad blood slugfest. |
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01-26-24 | Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units One weird thing about Memphis this season is that they're worse at home. The Grizzlies have a 4-15 record (5-14-0 ATS) in FedEx Forum. Although their recent road wins were nice, fading them on their home court is the smart play. Especially since Orlando does everything that the Grizzlies do better. The Magic rely on their defense, which is stronger, and have a struggling offense that outperforms Memphis'. Orlando will earn a much-needed win, covering the spread in the process. |
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01-26-24 | Michigan State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Spartans fell 70-57 as a -5.5-point home favorite to the Badgers in an earlier meeting back on December 5. What would make this win even sweeter for Izzo is the fact that Wisconsin will still be sitting atop the Big Ten should they defeat Indiana and Minnesota before facing Sparty, so knocking off the conference leader would look really good for a Michigan State squad that struggled to a 4-5 start to the season. The Badgers have not fared well in this series recently, going 8-17 SU and 9-16 ATS, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite. Finally, playing on Michigan State from Game 20 out when they are seeking conference revenge with 3 or more days of rest is 34-12-1. |
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01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors +7.5 | 127-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors catch the Clippers in an ideal scheduling spot tonight, and they’ll be happy to oblige. For openers, the Clips arrive off a monster double revenge showdown at home against the Lakers on Tuesday, with yet another same-reason avenger on tap at Boston tomorrow from a 37-point home loss they suffered against the Celtics two days prior to Christmas. Hence, it’s no surprise to learn they are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in post-Laker operatives, while just 18-26 SU and 18-24 ATS away before Beantown bashes. With the Dinosaurs 16-8-1 ATS as a host in this series, including 5-1 ATS when taking points, we’re all over this. |
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01-25-24 | San Francisco +9.5 v. Gonzaga | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coming into this game are the 15-4 San Francisco Dons, who have almost become an annual call selection when clashing with the Zags. This year Frisco checks in with a 15-8-1 ATS log in conference tourney revenge losses (fell to the Zags in the semis of last year’s West Coast conference event) and they’re currently riding a red hot 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS train. A concern is USF’s 0-2 SUATS slide in this series when they own the better record, but they are 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in games this season in which they boast the better record. With the Zags 8-1 SU at home this season, we can’t call for an outright win but their 1-5 ATS effort against foes coming off consecutive wins this campaign says you should grab the points with an avenging squad that just may be the better team. |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2.5 | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks are now 10-2 since acquiring Anunoby from Toronto. They hope to keep the wins coming on Thursday against the Nuggets. The Knicks are 16th in the NBA in scoring offense this season. They are 20th in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point shooting. The Knicks do rely heavily on the 3-point shot, ranked 10th in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game. New York is third in the NBA in scoring defense this season. They are 15th in field goal defense and 15th in 3-point defense. Despite not having a dominant center, the Knicks are second in the NBA in rebounds per game. They are just 18th in the NBA in turnovers per game. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers -5.5 v. Pacers | 122-134 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sixers will take the court with a 21-7 ATS mark as a favorite this season. With the Pacers in the middle of a brutal stretch in their schedule – off Denver and Phoenix with Phoenix and Memphis coming up, don’t be surprised to see them ‘rode hard an put away wet’ during this span. |
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01-25-24 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -16 | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A visit to the Sun Belt Conference finds us on the 5-returning starter Mountaineers, who arrive with a lofty 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS mark in this series when they own a winning record. They’ve also been red hot, winning 13 of their last 15 games on the scoreboard to improve to 14-4. As for Georgia Southern, first-year head coach Charlie Henry’s Eagles appear to be anything but the ”sleeper team’” they were tabbed to be. Instead, they look anything but, after nodding off to a dreadful 3-15 record this season at press time (0-15 outside the Sun Belt). |
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01-24-24 | Hawks v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I expect the struggling Warriors to play this game for their late assistant coach. They are not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but the Hawks are arguably even worse, so I like the Warriors in this spot. The Hawks struggle to defend the 3-point line, so keep your eyes on Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. When it comes to covering the spread, Atlanta has been a complete disaster so far this season, and I expect to see more of the same when the Hawks take on the Warriors. The Hawks are 4-12 ATS in their past 16 games overall. |
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01-24-24 | Thunder v. Spurs +7.5 | 140-114 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Antonio is averaging 112.8 points per game. They scored 133 points in their last game, making 46.2 percent of their field goals and 31.7 percent of their three-pointers. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 33 points and seven rebounds. Devin Vassell finished with 22 points, four rebounds, and nine assists, while Jeremy Sochan added 14 points, eight rebounds, and four assists. |
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01-24-24 | Villanova +3.5 v. St. John's | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are in a desperate situation and with the spread now at 4.5, I feel confident backing them to cover today at MSG. Nova has lost three of its last four and has only beaten two Big East teams not named DePaul, so it has some work to do if it hopes to earn a bye for the conference tournament. It has faced a tough schedule, 15th per KenPom, including an average offense ranked 20th and an average defense ranked 10th. With wins over North Carolina, Texas Tech, Maryland, Creighton, Memphis, and Xavier, there's no denying the Cats can play but will their shooters show up tomorrow? When Nova shoots over 37 percent from deep, it's 7-1, and when its opponent shoots under 29 percent, it's 5-0. St. John's ranks 212th in three-point percentage and its perimeter defense isn't elite. With one guard sidelined and another currently dealing with COVID, I'm not confident the Red Storm guards will outplay the Wildcats' guards. |
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01-24-24 | Cavs +6.5 v. Bucks | 116-126 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the league as they come in on an eight game win streak. The streak is impressive, but they were listed as the favorite in every game in the stretch, including wins over the Spurs, Nets, Hawks, Magic and two games against the Wizards. Included in the stretch was a win over Milwaukee, they were two point favorites but ended up winning the game by 40. In their most recent game, the Cavs were led by Sam Merrill who knocked down eight threes off the bench and finished with 26 points in the win over Orlando. |
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01-24-24 | Wolves -10.5 v. Wizards | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Minnesota Timberwolves are not happy after a home loss against the Hornets and will rebound here. The Washington Wizards continue to stumble. They have just one victory this month. They have lost to the Pistons and Spurs within the last week. Minnesota is the best defensive squad in the entire NBA while the Wizards are the worst. Minnesota is only conceding 109 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 1st in defensive rating while the Wizards are squandering 120.8 points per 100, pegging them 29th. Minnesota has conceded 105 or fewer points in three of their last five games. Three of the Timberwolves' last five wins have occurred by at least 15 points. |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units When James Harden joined the Clippers in November, Erik Spoelstra said he didn’t know exactly how Harden would fit alongside Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Russell Westbrook, but had faith Lue would find a way. And he has. As a result, they are now the T-Lue Clippers, currently resting a game behind the Denver Nuggets for the third sport in the Western Conference playoff chase. Despite dropping the last two games in the series to King James and company, the Clips bring an 11-3 SUATS overall mark in Lakers showdowns the past four seasons. Finally, the Clippers are 9-0 ATS at home in this series when taking the court with same-season double revenge. |
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01-23-24 | Blue Jackets v. Oilers -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oilers have looked unbeatable in recent games and look to dominate this game on their home ice. The Oilers, who average 3.50 goals per game, should pile on the goals against the Blue Jackets, who allow 3.73 goals per game, with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Oilers, who allow only 2.90 goals per game, should limit the Blue Jackets offense with Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, and the rest of the defensive unit forcing turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone while goaltender Stuart Skinner blanks the shots on the net. The Oilers should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win on their home ice. |
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01-23-24 | Xavier v. Creighton -8.5 | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This has not been a vintage season for the X-men. Despite winning 3 of their last five games, they were just 9-8 this season and must pay the piper here for knocking the Bluejays out in the semifinals of last year’s Big East Tournament. That’s because Creighton stands 5-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with LTKO revenge while Xavier is just 2-4 ATS against foes with LTKO. The Jays also own a 5-2 ATS mark in the series with the Musketeers when playing with revenge. The killer, though, is that Xavier is 4-38 ATS in games they lose on the scoreboard as underdogs against avenging conference foes. |
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01-23-24 | Nuggets v. Pacers +5 | 114-109 | Push | 0 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers raced out to a strong start this season thanks to outstanding point guard play from All-Star Tyrese Halliburton. Halliburton leads the team in points per game and assists but has been sidelined in six of the past seven games with a hamstring injury. The Pacers are just 2-4 with Halliburton out but he appears to be returning tonight. For the season, the Pacers rank first in the NBA in scoring offense. They are second in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point field goal percentage. The Pacers are also sixth in the league in 3-point field goals made per game. |
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01-23-24 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Nebraska | 69-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ohio State is averaging 76.4 points per game. They scored 79 points in their last game, making 45.8 percent of their field goals and 16.7 percent of their three-pointers. Roddy Gayle Jr. led the Buckeyes with 16 points, four rebounds, and five assists. Evan Mahaffey finished with 16 points and five rebounds, while Jamison Battle added 11 points and six rebounds. Ohio State has played well defensively, giving up 66.6 points per game. They gave up 67 points in their last game and will need a similar effort if they want to win this game. |
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01-22-24 | Florida A&M -5.5 v. Mississippi Valley State | 81-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-22-24 | Spurs v. 76ers -14.5 | 123-133 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Antonio is a team that is going nowhere this season as they continue on their rebuilding project. The Spurs are well outside the playoff picture and are the worst team in the Western Conference. San Antonio is just 5-18 on the road and they stand 23rd in field goal percentage defense (48.7%), 28th in threes allowed per game (14.1) and 28th in three-point defense (38.8%) this season. Embiid has run his streak of 30-point games to 20 after hitting that mark against Charlotte Saturday night. The 76ers are always tough at home and they should have enough firepower to take down the Spurs in this contest. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Interestingly, of the eight teams arriving in this round of the playoffs, four of them rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. The Bills and the Chiefs are two of them. It’s our educated guess that two of the four defensively staunch squads will be meeting in Super Bowl LVIII, with the Chiefs looking to repeat. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason against Josh Allen – both wins coming at Arrowhead – but this will mark the first road playoff game in his career. So, how will he and the Chiefs respond against the hottest team in the league? That’s the question. What we know for sure is the Mahomes is also 11-1 ATS in his NFL career as an underdog, winning eight of the games outright. Head coach Andy Reid has a 7-4 ATS career mark as a playoff dog, and a 9-4 SUATS career mark in postseason games between the 3s (+3 to -3). The points are tempting for a team that owns the best ‘In the Stats’ record (13-4) at this stage of the playoffs. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +7 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lions scored TDs on all three of its visits to the Red Zone last Sunday, while all three of the Rams’ trips to the Red Zone resulted in field goals. In the process, QB Jared Goff set a Detroit record for completion percentage in a game. Meanwhile, the Bucs jumped all over a deflated Philadelphia squad that flatlined, going 0-for-11 on 3rd and 4th down conversions to finish the season 1-6 following a scintillating 10-1 start. In the meantime, Tampa finished its campaign on a roll, currently riding a 6-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) skein. Between the Lions likely partying like it was 1999, and the surging Bucs on a free roll and playing with house money, look for Divisional Round dogs off back-to-back wins to improve to 6-1 ATS of late. |
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01-21-24 | Oregon +6.5 v. Utah | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utes after watching their promising 11-2 start to the season dissipate by dropping three of their last four contests entering this game. That’s not good news for a Utah team that’s forgotten how to win a game in this series as they are 1-20 SU against Oregon since 2013, including 0-5 SUATS as a favorite. Neither are the Utes’ 1-7 ATS failures after squaring off against Stanford and their 6-17 SU and 6-15-2 ATS mark against foes that own the better record. Must give a coaching edge to Oregon here as Utah’s 3rd-year HC Craig Smith has to match wits with the veteran Dana Altman, now in his 14th season with the Ducks and the 39th year of his career. Altman is 3-0 ATS off a loss this season, so you know the state and the team we’ll be lining up with today. Ducks get off the mat to hand Utah its first home loss of the campaign. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming off a Wild Card win as an underdog, are just 13-50 SU and 35-38 ATS overall. Worse, if these same teams won 5 or fewer games the previous season, they fall to 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. Enter the team favored to win this year’s Super Bowl, the 49ers. With it, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan brings a 4-0 ATS career mark into this contest as a playoff favorite by an average win margin of 15 points per game. In addition, the Niners are winning the stats on an average of 95 net yards per game this season, tops in the league. And it certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that San Francisco is 21-3 SU and 19-5 ATS since last season in games where they won the yardage battle. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in the playoffs when coming off consecutive SUATS wins – with the last as a dog. |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 55 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming off a Wild Card win as an underdog, are just 13-50 SU and 25-38 ATS overall. Worse, these same teams who won 5 or fewer games the previous season fall to 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Divisional Round hosts with a week of rest coming off a loss are 13-1 outright but only 1-8 ATS the last nine games. We temper that with John Harbaugh’s 9-3 ATS ledger in his last dozen playoff games. And don’t forget the Black Birds’ 3-0 SUATS mark this season in games when coming off a loss by an average score of 29-13. After being bounced in the first round of the playoffs in three of its previous four appearances, look for Harbaugh to improve on his 35-5-2 ATS career mark in games the Ravens win outright as a favorite against winning foes. Finally, playing against any NFL Divisional Round away team coming off a SU home underdog win of 5 or more points if they won 5 or fewer games last season is 10-1 ATS. |
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01-20-24 | UCLA +18 v. Arizona | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats beat the top-seeded Bruins, 61-59, in the finals of last season’s Pac-12 tourney and remember Zona is a money-burning 7-22-1 ATS against Pac 12 foes with a revenge chip on their shoulder, including a brutal 2-18-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more points. The Bruins may be down a tad this season, but rest assured they will be fully focused here. Finally, UCLA is 9-2 SU and ATS with revenge in this series, including 5-0 SUATS when the Wildcats own a sub .840 win percentage. |
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01-20-24 | USC +3.5 v. Arizona State | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re going with the Trojans, who were upset by the Sun Devils in the opening round of last year’s Pac-12 Tournament, and the Trojans just so happen to own a 6-0 ATS mark in this series when seeking revenge. That should provide plenty of incentive for a team with Big Dance aspirations who is languishing around the Mendoza line as we come up on February. It helps too that Arizona State is just 2-4 SUATS versus conference foes seeking Pac-12 tourney revenge. Enfield and company simply cannot afford another loss with UCLA and Oregon on deck after this one, so take a shot with the Traveling Trojans. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have not been reliable on the road where they have lost four of their last five games. The Miami Heat are clicking, winning three of their last four games. The Hawks rely heavily on the scoring to win games but are up against a remarkable Heat defense. The Hawks are allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions, pegging them 26th in the NBA in defensive rating compared to only 113 points per 100 conceded by the Heat defense. Miami has shined against Atlanta this season, going 2-0, and winning the meetings by eight and nine points respectively. Also, each of the Hawks' last five defeats have occurred by at least seven points. |
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01-19-24 | Nuggets v. Celtics -6 | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have not played as well away from Ball Arena this season (7-14 ATS), failing to cover in three of their four games as road underdogs. One reason for their below-average play away has been their three-point shooting, which drops three percentage points on the road. Given the state of today's NBA, it's tough to cover when you're off the mark from beyond the arc. The Celtics are primed to win this game, riding their hot offensive attack to the finish line. The most efficient offense in the league uses the three-ball like a chainsaw in a horror movie, cutting down its opponents one by one. The C's rank first in three-pointers attempted and sixth in shooting percentage, per Dunks and Threes, an area of the court the Nuggets do not defend well enough (15th in opponent 3PT%). The visitors are stout at the rim (6th in rim defense), but the Celtics rank 29th in rim shot attempts. With Porzingis and White expected to suit up for the Celtics and Gordon likely to play for the Nuggets, basketball fans should expect a competitive game on Friday night in Boston. The trends and analytics point to a Celtics win and cover, which is how I'll be wagering on this potential NBA Finals matchup. |
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01-19-24 | 76ers -5 v. Magic | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Embiid is on a war path, and Orlando is on a cold streak, I expect both trends to continue as Philadelphia easily takes this one. I am not an NBA coach, but I am beginning to question Coach Mosley's rotations in Orlando. Franz Wagner is injured, but he still is not playing his best players in his starting lineup, and its not just at one position. The Magic have been starting Chuma Okeke, Houstan, and Goga Bitadze, these players only combine to score exactly 16.0 points per game. That is not enough production for three starters. The Magic have talent they are giving less minutes, players who arguably deserve to start over those three include: Cole Anthony, Moritz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, and Jonathan Isaac. You could even make a case for Joe Ingles or Anthony Black. All of those players are healthy, but the Magic continue to start players who produce less. The 76ers are not going to bring Maxey and Harris off the bench, and they will always have a stronger lineup on the court. Orlando does not have a post defender that can stop Embiid here, the big man could very realistically go for 50 again. Even if he doesn't, the 76ers will still roll. |
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01-19-24 | St. Louis v. VCU -8.5 | 61-85 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Virginia Commonwealth team that went 27-8 last year is barely treading water under fi rst-year head coach Ryan Odom at press time with a 9-7 record. A lot has to do with the fact that the Rams were decimated by graduation and transfers with ZERO returning starters back from last year’s unit, so it’s time to hop on their misfortune – especially with VCU still looking to cash a winning ticket at the Siegel Center in a conference game this season. Saint Louis head coach Travis Ford brings a stellar 27-8 SU |
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01-19-24 | Akron v. Kent State | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zips remember being trashed in all three meetings last season, including a loss in the semifinals of the MAC tourney. They also enter this fray at 11-7 ATS when seeking conference tourney revenge, including 7-1-1 ATS against foes coming off a win. As for the Flashes, they’re barely glowing this season with Kent just above the Mendoza line at press time. Worse, the Flashes are 0-3 ATS against avenging foes this campaign. |
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01-19-24 | Marist v. Mt. St. Mary's -3.5 | 48-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-18-24 | Oregon State +16 v. Utah | 47-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utes might miss junior center Lawson Lovering (7.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and senior guard Rollie Worster (9.9 PPG, 5.5 APG) due to injuries, but I still expect Utah to dominate Oregon State in front of the home audience. However, I wasn’t expecting the bookies to set a 15-point spread, so I’ll take the underdogs in this game. If Rollie Worster remains on the shelf, the Utes will struggle to beat the number. Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall and 2-7 ATS in its previous nine outings in the conference play. On the other side, Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last six contests overall. |
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01-18-24 | Tenn-Martin +10 v. Morehead State | 66-84 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-18-24 | Towson +11.5 v. College of Charleston | 82-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Towson is comes in looking to avenge a loss to the Cougars in the semifinal of last years’ Colonial Conference tourney. A smart 9-6 ATS mark with revenge in this series sets the table tonight and an even smarter 63-39-3 ATS ledger in games as a revenge-seeking conference dog cleans it up. Since joining the CAA, the Cougars have faced two foes with triple revenge chips on their shoulders from the previous season and they’ve lost the money each time. |
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01-17-24 | Nevada +7 v. San Diego State | 59-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nevada is averaging 76.1 points per game. They scored 56 points in their last game, making 36 percent of their field goals and 25 percent of their three-pointers. Kenan Blackshear led the Wolf Pack with 15 points, three rebounds, and three assists. Jarod Lucas finished with 14 points and four assists, while Nick Davidson added 12 points and five rebounds. Nevada has played well defensively, giving up 63.6 points per game. They gave up 64 points in their last game and will need a similar effort if they want to win this game. |
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01-17-24 | USC v. Arizona -19 | 67-82 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Will Arizona win this game? Absolutely! The question is by how much, and recent history demonstrates that they can crush the Trojans by 17 or more. Last season at home, they beat USC by 15 and the season before they had a 20-point victory over the Trojans in Los Angeles. Arizona has also produced at least 81 points in five of the last six meetings against USC. What they have also done is shut down the Trojans, who have scored under 70 points in two of the last four meetings between these teams. USC has gone under 65 in the last two games and they will do that here as well. |
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01-17-24 | Texas-San Antonio v. Tulsa -7 | 78-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-17-24 | Youngstown State +3.5 v. Oakland | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-17-24 | Rhode Island +8.5 v. St Bonaventure | 64-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rhode Island Rams are looking to continue winning games as they are coming off an 89-77 home victory against the UMass Minutemen and it helped scoring 41+ points in each half. Their offense was unbelievable as the Rams were able to shoot 27-of-52 (51.9 percent) from the floor, 14-of-23 (60.9 percent) from the three-point line and 28 free-throw attempts. Junior guard Jaden House stepped up in this game as he finished with 29 points, six rebounds, three assists, one block and three turnovers in 35 minutes of action. The defense has done a good job as well as the Minutemen were held a team shooting split of 40.9/20.0/71.4 throughout the game. |
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01-17-24 | Georgia State +9.5 v. Appalachian State | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-16-24 | San Jose State +3 v. Fresno State | 82-85 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Isaiah Hill is a lone Bulldog with points per game north of 10.0. On the other side, four Spartans average points in double figures, so I have to take San Jose State even though the Spartans’ defense has been pretty bad all season. The Bulldogs’ defense has been solid over the last few weeks, but their offense has been pretty much awful. I’m looking for a tight battle for all 40 minutes, and the Spartans’ offense should make a difference down the stretch. Fresno State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against San Jose State. However, the Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, whereas the Spartans have gone 4-1 ATS in their previous five. |
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01-16-24 | Kings +4.5 v. Suns | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings come into this game with one of the more dynamic offenses in the NBA. They rank ninth in the league in scoring offense. The Kings are 15th field goal shooting and 14th in 3-point shooting. The Kings rely heavily on the 3-point game, ranking third in the league in 3-point field goals per game. Defensively, the Kings are ranked 20th in scoring defense. They are 22nd in field goal defense and just 27th in 3-point defense. The Kings, led by Sabonis, are 11th in the NBA in total rebounds this season. They are 16th in turnovers per game. |
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01-16-24 | Western Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | 66-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Akron will be too tough at both ends of the court for Western Michigan to keep pace. Akron scores 77.1 points per game and has the 63rd best field goal shooting percentage, allowing just 65.6 points per game which is 55th in the country. In contrast, Western Michigan scores an average of 74.9 points per game but is allowing 76.2 points per game and opponents are shooting 44.9%. Western Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 35.6% from 3-point territory which is 314th, and plays to one of Toledo’s strengths, as the Rockets are hitting the same 35.6% from three point land. Akron has covered the spread in four of its last five. Akron's scoring duo Enrique Freeman and Ali Ali, who average a combined 33.8 points per game, will be too much inside and out for the Broncos defense. Akron's Freeman is leading the nation in rebounding at 13.1 per game and helps the Zips clear the glass at both ends giving opponents fewer second look opportunities. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Ironically, the only career road playoff game for QB Jalen Hurts was two years ago in a loss to Tampa Bay, where the Eagles return to the scene of the crime. In his career playoff starts, Hurts owns a 2-2 record, with 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating. Lately, though, he’s been a similar mess with an 82.9 QB Rating the past four games while tossing 4 TDs and 5 INTS. And that’s critical, considering that the average turnover during the regular season is worth 4.3 points. In the playoffs, it jumps to 4.7 points. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield’s career was on life support in 2022 before his bounce-back season with the Bucs. The former No. 1 pick struggled down the stretch, but he had his best statistical season to help Tampa Bay claim the NFC South title for a third straight year. Given the success of home dogs in the Wild Card round and the fact that playing on any NFL home dog in the Wild Card Round if they are playing with same-season revenge is 9-1 ATS, so we’ll take whatever they offer up |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Allen is among the NFL’s most prolific quarterbacks when he’s rolling, as he sports a 105.6 QB Rating in the streak. He also owns 17 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, a 99.6 passer rating, and 2 rushing TDs in the post season. Pittsburgh counters with mighty Mason Rudolph, whose 3-0 SUATS mark as a starter to end the season pushed his NFL career record to 8-4-1 SU and 8-3-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off back-to-back wins. This will mark Rudolph’s postseason debut. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin enters 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS away in the playoffs. He’s also 0-3 ATS away in Game One of playoffs. Superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt led the league in sacks for the third time with 19 sacks, the most in NFL history, but he’s out with an injury he suffered in the season finale. That’s not good news, considering the Steelers are 69-33-2 with Watt; 1-10 without him. |
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01-15-24 | Villanova +6.5 v. Marquette | 74-87 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Villanova Wildcats are right at the top of the Big East standings, as only three teams in the league have only one loss. The one-loss teams are Seton Hall, UConn and Villanova. Nova's lone loss was a home matchup against St. John's, they defeated DePaul twice, won a home game over Xavier, and grabbed a road win over #12 Creighton. In their last game against DePaul, Nova got out to a 10 point lead at half and never looked back. They were led in scoring by Eric Dixon with 24 points in the win. |
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01-15-24 | Rockets v. 76ers -7.5 | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's usually wise to fade the Rockets on the road. They don't win, their scoring dips, and their defensive performance gets dramatically worse. None of that bodes well against a team they've already lost to that may also be getting an MVP back onto the court. Houston's defense struggles to keep opponents off the free throw line, which is where the 76ers excel. In the first meeting, Philadelphia ended the game 29-33 at the free throw line. The Rockets' defense does not match up well with the 76ers, and that's the team's strength. Expect a decisive Philadelphia victory. |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dan Campbell is a candidate for Coach of the Year, he is an excellent motivator and his team plays hard for him, but in a playoff spot I'll take the coach who is better at creating a gameplan. The Lions were favored to win the NFC North, they did exactly what was expected of them, while the Rams were left for dead and significantly overachieved. Sean McVay will have an offensive attack that the Lions will not be prepared for. McVay turned Kyren Williams into one of the best running backs in the league, and made Puka Nacua look like he should have been a top 20 pick instead of a fifth-rounder. The Lions are 27th in the NFL in passing defense, while the Rams are 10th in passing yards per game. Stafford will not disappoint in his return to Detroit, and will cut up this Lions' pass defense with Nacua and Kupp. The Rams' passing defense is stronger than Detroit's, as they rank 20th in passing defense and will have the better chances to get stops. The Lions like their dome, but they do not have the strongest home field advantage, they lost to the Seahawks and Packers at home this season. In the Playoffs, games can be decided by the slimmest of margins, and I will take the coaching advantage, and the Rams' passing attack against the weak Lions' secondary as the key difference makers. |
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01-14-24 | Kings v. Bucks -4.5 | 142-143 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks took a while to get going early in the season, then settled in and had a seven game winning streak. The Bucks are back to their losing ways, as they have now lost four of their last six, and look to rebound against this Kings team. The Bucks lost two games to the Pacers, and dropped games with the Jazz and Rockets in their recent stretch. They showed their capability in their recent matchup with the Celtics, winning by 33 as they were led by Bobby Portis with 28 points and 12 rebounds off the bench. |
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01-14-24 | Packers +7 v. Cowboys | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s put up or shut up time for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys today. That’s because in six career playoff starts, he enters with a 2-4 record, including the last two seasons which ended in heartbreaking playoff losses against the 49ers. Don’t expect a walk in the park today, either. Not from a team that was 2-5 ATS against fellow playoff teams this season, while being outgained an average -23 net yards per game along the way. It all adds up to a 4-12 SUATS ledger in the playoffs for Dallas since 1997. To get over the hurdle, the ‘Boys will have to overcome a Green Bay squad on a roll, playing its best football of the season behind QB Jordan Love in his first year at the helm as the team improved as the season wore on. In fact, over the final eight games of the campaign Love posted an 18-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With it, the Packers check in 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the playoffs when entering with a sub .700-win percentage. Tie it into Green Bay’s 4-0 SUATS record of late in this series, while also playing with a major chip on its shoulder after not having a player on the roster voted to the Pro Bowl squad. |
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01-14-24 | St. Peter's -6 v. Manhattan | 81-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both St Peters and Manhattan do not score that many points per game but the big difference in this matchup is on defense, as the Peacocks are allowing an average of only 63.5 points per game and 42.4% shooting, while the Jaspers are allowing an average of 76.0 points per game and 45.5% shooting. St Peter's has covered the spread in six of its last seven games and in four of the last five games head-to-head versus Manhattan. Manhattan has covered the spread in just one of its last seven games and the Jaspers have covered the spread in just one of their last six games played on their home court. Manhattan is scoring only 64.4 points per game and shoots very poorly, hitting just 39.4% of its shots overall and 30.1% of its 3-point attempts, which are 347th and 316th respectively. |
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01-13-24 | Lakers v. Jazz +1.5 | 125-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz have been terrific lately, winning nine of their last 11 games prior to Friday’s clash against the Raptors. On the other side, the Lakers have dropped ten of their previous 14 contests. They are without Rui Hachimura (calf) and Gabe Vincent (knee). |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will mark QB Tua Tagovailoa’s playoff debut (backup QB Skylar Thompson was behind center for injured Tua in last year’s 34-31 playoff loss here last season). Complicating matters, 20 players appeared on Miami’s initial injury report, forcing them to sign five players to fill out the roster. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had problems of their own against other playoff squads this season, going 1-4 SUATS. However, we note that NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 21-8 SU and 16-12-1 ATS at home the following playoff season, including 2-0 SUATS against foes arriving off a loss by an average score of 35-15. Ironically, both squads rank in the Top 10 on offense and defense and each is a league-best 13-5 ‘In The Stats’ this season. |
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01-13-24 | Rockets v. Celtics -15.5 | 113-145 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have won three of their last five games and 18 straight home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 123 points per game at home. They’ve also done well at the charity stripe, making over 84 percent of their free throws at home. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also did a great job of protecting the ball in recent games, turning it over less than 10 times per game in their last three games, do don’t expect them to give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets have struggled defensively on the road this season and they are also playing on consecutive nights against a team that has been dominant at home, so expect the Celtics to keep their offense in check. The Rockets have lost two straight road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Celtics and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Celtics, who average more than six steals per game. The Celtics have been very good defensively at home, holding opponents under 110 points per game, and will keep Houston’s offense in check. Go with Boston to cover the spread. |
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01-13-24 | Southern Miss v. Troy State -4.5 | 56-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units |
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01-13-24 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -6.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Miami RedHawks are middle-of-the-pack on the offensive side of the floor as they are averaging 74.8 points per game, which is 185th in college basketball. Their defense has been doing a decent job as they are 181st in the NCAA with 71.7 points per game allowed. |
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01-13-24 | NC State -7.5 v. Louisville | 89-83 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Louisville comes in with a victory in their previous contest, giving them a little bit of momentum heading into this game. Meanwhile, NC State struggled against Notre Dame on the road and lost to North Carolina so they are looking to get back on track here. Louisville has struggled shooting the ball all season long and they have sputtered on the defensive end of the floor. This should be an opportunity for the Wolfpack to get right offensively in this contest as they face this struggling Cardinals group. Burns Jr. should have a big game on the interior, especially with Traynor missing for Louisville. Take the Wolfpack in this contest as they earn the road victory. |
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01-12-24 | Blazers v. Wolves -15 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are blowouts every night in the NBA. On Wednesday the Pelicans beat the Warrior by 36. On Tuesday, the Knicks beat these Blazers by 28. On Monday, the Clippers beat the Suns by 27. That is the last three days of NBA action, and every day had a landslide victory. This game is next in the progression. Gobert and Conley both sat out last game, neither has a serious injury and will likely play here after another day of rest. Edwards and Towns have played in almost every game this season, the Wolves will be at full strength. Portland on the other hand, will be playing on the tail end of a back-to-back after chasing around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the road on Thursday. Portland has to travel in between, and fatigue will be an issue when the Blazers get to Minnesota. Minnesota is strong inside with Towns, Reid and Gobert, which will be bad news for the Blazers as Ayton is likely out again. The T-Wolves are clinging onto first in the West, and are coming off a loss, they will not take any chances in this game and will blow the tired Blazers out of the water. |
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01-12-24 | Pacers v. Hawks -5.5 | 126-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Haliburton's injury could be costly for Indiana. It managed to get past Washington in its first game without him, but that isn't saying much. The Pacers went 8-21 straight up (10-18-1 ATS) without Haliburton the last two seasons, which isn't surprising considering that he's the catalyst to their top-ranked offense. His absence is likely worth five or six points to the spread, as he's worth +8.2 points per 100 possessions to Indy's offense, schedule-adjusted, per Dunks and Threes. |
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01-11-24 | Cal Poly +10 v. Cal-Riverside | 56-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-11-24 | San Francisco v. San Diego +10.5 | 83-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-11-24 | Abilene Christian +15.5 v. Grand Canyon | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-11-24 | Blazers v. Thunder -12.5 | 77-139 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The most recent time the Oklahoma City Thunder played the Portland Trail Blazers, the Thunder did something no other NBA team had done in at least 25 years with their hot shooting. In Oklahoma City's 134-91 win in Portland on Nov. 19, the Thunder shot 60.5 percent from the floor, 61.1 percent from beyond the 3-point line and 100 percent from the free-throw line to reach the rare single-game 60/60/100 mark. The Thunder's 77 percent true shooting percentage also set a franchise record. Tonight, the Thunder and Blazers will meet again, this time in Oklahoma City, with the Thunder on another shooting hot streak. The Thunder have shot 50 percent or better in each of their last nine games, their longest such streak in the 15 seasons since they moved to Oklahoma City. During the nine-game stretch, Thunder standout Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 60.2 percent from the floor. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.4 points per game, which matches his career high, as do his 5.9 rebounds a game. He also has career-high averages in assists (6.4) and steals (2.4) per game. |
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01-11-24 | Southern Indiana v. SIU-Edwardsville -7 | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-09-24 | Duke v. Pittsburgh +5.5 | 75-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-09-24 | Vanderbilt v. LSU -7.5 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-09-24 | Texas +6 v. Cincinnati | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-09-24 | Wake Forest v. Florida State +3.5 | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-08-24 | Washington +4.5 v. Michigan | 13-34 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Harbaugh owns a weak 11-21-1 ATS career mark against undefeated foes, including 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS when not favored by 5 or more points. And for what it’s worth, this will be his first test against an undefeated opponent in the postseason. Then there is the infamous “Bama bounce” that occurs when a team beats the Tide by a touchdown (7 points) or more, as they are just 20-30 ATS as chalk the following game. Note that undefeated teams who beat a Nick Saban coached Alabama squad are 3-11 ATS the following game, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points when facing a foe coming off an ATS win. Meanwhile, DeBoer stands 8-1 ATS as a dog, including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and 4-0 SUATS versus .888 or greater foes. He is also 6-1 SU versus undefeated foes, including 1-0 SUATS as a dog. (Beat UCLA, 40-37 as an 11-point dog). |
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01-08-24 | Howard v. South Carolina State +4.5 | 82-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-08-24 | Norfolk State +1.5 v. North Carolina Central | 58-60 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-07-24 | Rams +4 v. 49ers | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Rams will be handing the ball to Carson Wentz, who at first glance is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his last ten starts. But he is also 7-5 SUATS in his career with teams riding a three game win streak, including 3-0 SUATS in division games. The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road dog, as well as 5-1 ATS in its last six division road contests. Flipping the script, the Niners enter with nothing to gain as they have the No. 1 seed throughout the NFC playoffs and figure to be resting starters for an extended period of time, with star RB Christian McCaffrey and QB Brock Purdy already nailed to the pines and QB Sam Darnold slated to start. Finally, playing on any NFL .500 or greater division road dog with triple revenge is 48-24-2 ATS since 1981 Better yet, bring them in off a win and they improve to 35-13-2, while going 19-5-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 ATS since 1998. |