Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-21 | Rays -102 v. Red Sox | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday was a disaster for the Red Sox. With Chris Sale on the hill, they needed to use six relievers -- including most of their important ones that aren't on the shelf -- and still lost in extras. The Rays didn't even need to use Andrew Kittredge or Pete Fairbanks. Tuesday, the Rays start Drew Rasmussen. He hasn't given up more than a run since July 5, a span of 11 outings and 32 1/3 innings of pitching to a 1.95 ERA. The Red Sox counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been awful at home. He held down the Rays last week, but they'll get to him with a second look on a quick turnaround. |
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09-07-21 | Royals -114 v. Orioles | 3-7 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jackson Kowar looked much better in his most recent stint in the Major Leagues allowing just 2 runs in 6 IP. Alexander Wells has been very hit or miss and he will be making a spot start today. The Orioles are 5-15 in their last 3 weeks including 2-8 at home while the Royals are 13-8 and 8-3 on the road in the same time span. Trey Mancini is out of the lineup again, take the Royals. |
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09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins +160 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Carlos Carrasco has been decent since returning to the starting rotation but he has already faced the Marlins twice including in his last start. Edward Cabrera is making just his third career start and his last start was against the Mets. The Mets are 13-21 since the trade deadline and they are 6-13 on the road. The Marlins are 13-19 since the trade deadline and 12-8 at home. The Marlins are 5-2 against the Mets at home this season, this game should be much closer to 50-50. Take the value in the home dog. |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -121 | 3-0 | Loss | -121 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Aaron Civale makes his return from the IL for his first start since June. John Gant has struggled since being traded and inserted into the starting rotation, but most notably he hasn’t been getting deep into games. The Indians are 11-8 in the past 3 weeks including 6-4 at home, while the Twins are 8-11 in the same time span and 4-7 on the road. The Twins used all their top bullpen guys in the win yesterday as well, take the Indians at home. |
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09-06-21 | Twins v. Indians +114 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both these starters have actually been pitching very well lately but the Twins struggle against lefties. The Indians have been much better at home while the Twins have struggled on the road. The Indians are 11-7 in the past 3 weeks and 6-3 at home while the Twins are 7-11 and 3-7 on the road in the same timeframe. Jose Ramirez should be back in the lineup after an off day yesterday and the Twins only have 27 road wins all season. Take the home dogs. |
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09-06-21 | Giants v. Rockies +134 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies and the Giants actually have the same record at 11-8 in the past three weeks, and the Rockies are one of the best teams at home in the league. The Giants are coming off multiple high leverage bullpen games against the Dodgers so their bullpen should be worn out. Not ideal for Coors Field. Kevin Gausman has yet to pitch at Coors Field this season and he allowed 5 ER in 10.1 IP in Coors Field last season. Kyle Freeland has been pitching really well lately including one run allowed in 6 IP against the Giants in his only start against them this season. The Giants tend to struggle against lefties and Buster Posey should be out of the lineup after playing back to back nights. Take the Rockies at home. |
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09-06-21 | Reds v. Cubs +133 | 3-4 | Win | 133 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have the fifth worst wOBA in the league against lefties this season and they face Justin Steele today who allowed just 1 hit in 5 IP in his last start. The Cubs have sneakily won 6 straight games and 7 of their last 10 games including a 3 run 9th inning yesterday to walk off the Pirates. In the past three weeks, the Cubs are 11-7 while the Reds are 9-10. The Cubs are 3-4 against the Reds at home this season and they just won 2 out of 3 games in Cincy in August. Take the home dog. |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays +130 v. Yankees | 8-0 | Win | 130 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays bats have awoken after their onslaught of the Athletics relievers continued. They have now won 4 straight games and 7 of their last 10 while the take on the slumping Yankees. The Yankees just lost 2 straight to the Orioles and have lost 6 of 10. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jameson Taillon are both capable of pitching gems or getting lit up so I will take the value on the dog. |
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09-05-21 | Dodgers -173 v. Giants | 4-6 | Loss | -173 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants have withstood everything that's gone against them this season, but now the starting rotation has some holes. Los Angeles RHP Walker Buehler has faced San Francisco's two aces this season, and the Dodgers lost two of the three games, even though Buehler allowed a total of two earned runs. Los Angeles will get the win - and sole possession of first place in the NL West - on Sunday. |
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09-05-21 | Mariners -120 v. Diamondbacks | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are riding a four-game winning streak and are only four games out for the final AL wild-card spot. Seattle winning five straight looks strong, and it’s fairly cheap behind RHP Chris Flexen, as the team has gone 17-8 behind him. Opponents have hit Arizona LHP Tyler Gilbert hard since he tossed a no-hitter in his first major-league start. Take the Mariners to win. |
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09-05-21 | White Sox v. Royals +142 | 0-6 | Win | 142 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dylan Cease is 5-4 with a 5.37 ERA on the road this season. However, he has been very good lately and he has faced the Royals four times already this season. Brady Singer has been pitching well lately also but he has only faced the White Sox one time this season as opposed to Cease. The Royals have been hitting well lately and these two teams have split their meetings this season 9-9. Adalberto Mondesi is back in the lineup. Take the value in the Royals at home. |
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09-05-21 | Indians +145 v. Red Sox | 11-5 | Win | 145 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams continue to play close games as the Indians tied the game in the 9th yesterday only for the Red Sox to walk it off in the 10th. Nick Pivetta has been placed on the COVID IL and it looks like the Red Sox will be going with a bullpen game. Zach Plesac has been very good lately and he is coming off one of his best starts if the season. The Indians have been playing well lately and the Red Sox are still without many key players including Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers is getting the day off, take the value on the Indians. |
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09-03-21 | Dodgers -113 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First place in the NL West on the line -- the Dodgers come in with a full bullpen after being off Thursday, while the Giants aren't hitting and were lucky to avoid a four-game home sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Thursday. Arguably San Francisco's best reliever, Tyler Rogers (1.80 ERA), has pitched in the past two games and thus likely won't be available. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani is 0-3 with a 9.43 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers this year. I don't love LA starter David Price, but getting that loaded lineup at just -115 against anyone is a must-play. I expect this ML to jump in the morning. |
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09-02-21 | Braves v. Rockies +144 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You know what I like to say ... Stick With What Works! The Rockies are back home, where they are 43-22. That means they play like a 107-win team at home. They've gone 10-2 in their last two homestands and we went 4-0 on the last one. Why stray? Meantime, the Braves have lost six of eight against tough competition after getting fat against mostly weaklings. The Rockies might not look as tough as the Yankees, Giants or Dodgers, but when in Coors Field, they absolutely are that tough. Ride 'em until they buck ya. |
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09-02-21 | Indians -100 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indians starter Triston McKenzie is throwing the ball very well of late. In four starts in August he had a 1.93 ERA and 28 strikeouts against two walks in 28 innings. He's also totally shut down the Royals in three outings this season, having allowed only one run in 15 2/3 innings. On the other side, it's been a while since Mike Minor wasn't bad. The Royals are 2-9 in his last 11 starts and he has a 6.46 ERA in that time. So we've got the better team having a much better pitching matchup with very playable odds. Take 'em. |
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09-02-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -151 | 4-0 | Loss | -151 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units he Red Sox broke the Rays' nine-game winning streak on Wednesday, but that was with Chris Sale on the hill. This time around it's Eduardo Rodriguez in front of a COVID-ravaged bullpen. He's been terrible this season with a 5.12 ERA. Even if he holds the Rays down one time through the order, it won't take much longer for them to bust through offensively. The Rays send rookie sensation Shane McClanahan, who has a 2.84 ERA in his last eight starts, seven of those Rays wins. He's 6-1 at home and the Rays are 43-24 at home. Play the winner. Stick with what works. |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -188 v. Angels | 4-6 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels just announced that Shohei Ohtani will not pitch Tuesday night (he will be able to DH through a minor injury), so this moneyline is clearly going to rise overnight with Jaime Barria (2-2, 5.56) taking his place. It's Jameson Taillon for the Yanks. He is 7-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last 13 starts, allowing three earned or fewer in 11 of those. |
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08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins -150 | 3-1 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I haven't faded my Cubs for a while! Pitcher Zach Davies has not been good this month, going 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA. Chicago is 1-8 in its past nine vs. the American League and 1-8 in its past nine series openers. The Twins actually will finish August with a winning record, their first winning month of the year. They are 6-1 in their past seven at home vs. right-handers. I expect this ML to rise to around -160ish by the morning. |
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08-30-21 | Yankees -172 v. Angels | 7-8 | Loss | -172 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Apparently, this will be the MLB debut of Angels pitcher Kyle Tyler, a 20th-round pick out of Oklahoma in 2018. He has solid minor-league numbers overall but was hit around in five Triple-A games this year, going 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA. The Yankees seem due a big offensive night after scoring just three runs in back-to-back losses in Oakland. Corey Kluber starts for NYY but will be on a pitch count off the injured list. New York has won five straight series openers. |
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08-29-21 | Royals v. Mariners -147 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Are the playoff-hopeful Mariners really going to get swept at home by the Royals? I have a tough time seeing that. KC starter Brady Singer has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four. M's lefty Marco Gonzales has a 1.36 ERA this month. Hey, for what it's worth, the Mariners are 8-0 in their past four in Game 4 of a series. OK, reaching, but it's the end of a long trip for the Royals and they likely are on fumes. Always fade teams on the end of long trips, regardless of sport. |
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08-29-21 | Astros -212 v. Rangers | 2-13 | Loss | -212 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When the Houston Astros send Zack Greinke to the hill against Texas today they will do so knowing his is 10-0 this season in his team-starts against the Rangers. He also sports a 2.34 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in his road starts this season. |
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08-29-21 | Blue Jays v. Tigers +160 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Matt Boyd is making his first start since June 14th but he has been much better at home with a 2.47 ERA. Jose Berrios has really struggled lately going 1-2 with a 4.81 ERA since arriving in Toronto. The Blue Jays are struggling, having won just 4 of their last 10 games. Akil Baddoo is back in the lineup and the Tigers have most of their regulars in. Take the value in the Tigers at home. |
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08-29-21 | Reds -178 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -178 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Tyler Mahle is much better on the road going 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA. Jesus Luzardo has struggled all season, but he has allowed at least 3 ER in all of his starts with Miami. The Reds play well on the road and they are 5-1 against the Reds in the past 2 weeks so they should have no problem today. Take the Reds to win the series. |
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08-27-21 | Yankees -146 v. A's | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he main reason I’m betting the Yankees tonight is that they’ve won 12 straight. On a lesser level, I’m betting them because the A’s have lost five straight. Gerrit Cole starting is a bonus, especially since he’s been dominant in his last two starts, allowing just one run total in two Yankees wins. The A’s have lost three of Sean Manaea’s last four starts, including one where the Rangers scored seven runs off him. Yankees to win. |
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08-27-21 | Reds -133 v. Marlins | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds lead the majors in OPS versus right-handed pitching (.786) and should have success against Zach Thompson. The Marlins have lost seven of Thompson's last nine starts. Wade Miley faces a Miami lineup that ranks 27th in OPS versus southpaws (.677). These teams just met last week, with the Reds sweeping four at home. Look for the Reds to beat Miami for the 11th time in their last 12 tries. |
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08-26-21 | White Sox -103 v. Blue Jays | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox get Cy Young candidate Carlos Rodon back from the injured list and he's supposedly ready to go a normal length -- but even if not, the Sox's top three relievers, Michael Kopech, Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks, are all available. The Jays' Hyun Jin Ryu has been rather hit or miss in his past handful of starts. Toronto also is starting a bit of a watered-down lineup after its Big 4 (Alejandro Kirk at DH?). |
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08-26-21 | Reds v. Brewers -104 | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brett Anderson vs. Sonny Gray and the Brewers are going for the sweep. Brett Anderson is much better at home with a 3.13 ERA and the Reds struggle against lefties with the 5th worst wOBA in the league. He has already faced Cincy this season and pitched two good outings and one bad one. Sonny Gray is better on the road but he was hit hard in his last start against the Brewers. I just don’t trust the Reds bullpen even if they take an early lead. The Brewers have all their top relievers available as well, so Ill take the Brewers at home to sweep. The Brewers have won five straight against the Reds and two of the last three series between these two teams have been sweeps. |
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08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies -144 | 7-4 | Loss | -144 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am a tad worried that Phillies ace and former Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler has been a bit off his past two starts, but he has been much better at home all year and the Rays are sitting a ton of offensive thunder in Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino, Austin Meadows and Manuel Margot essentially in favor of defense (plus obviously no DH). Tampa starting pitcher Ryan Yarbrough (4.57 ERA) is nothing special. |
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08-25-21 | Rockies -142 v. Cubs | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies were the victims of a bullpen blowup last night and ended up blowing a 4-0 lead, but the Rockies have the third highest wOBA in the league against lefties and Trevor Story was out of the lineup yesterday. The Cubs are still one of the worst teams in the league since the trade deadline, take the Rockies on the road. |
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08-24-21 | Giants -101 v. Mets | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants are going with a bullpen game today starting with Sammy Long. Long hasn’t been great, but he should be fine against a Mets team that struggles against lefties. Tylor Megill faced the Giants last week and pitched well, but the hitters should have the advantage second time around. Kris Bryant is out of the lineup but Buster Posey is in. Bryant should get an important at bat too if this game is close. Take the value on the Giants. |
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08-24-21 | Twins +195 v. Red Sox | 9-11 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Griffin Jax has been pitching well lately having allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts. Tanner Houck has also been pitching well but he hasn’t been getting deep into games, and the Red Sox bullpen has been bad lately. The Twins were playing well until they ran into their kryptonite in the Yankees and the Red Sox were very close to losing two of three at home to the Rangers. Take the value in the Twins. |
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08-24-21 | Nationals +102 v. Marlins | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Erik Fedde has struggled this season, but Jesus Luzardo has struggled much more. The Marlins are sitting their top RBI guy in Jesus Aguilar and the Nats have multiple guys like Lane Thomas and Yadiel Hernandez hot right now. The Nats have the highest wOBA in the league against lefties and the Marlins have lost 7 straight games. Take the Nats. |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -122 | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Watered-down lineup for White Sox with no Tim Anderson, Cesar Hernandez or Andrew Vaughn. The latter two are resting, but Anderson (minor injury) is the key to that entire lineup and it's not a coincidence that Chicago has lost three straight without him. Jays starter Jose Berrios' 3.52 ERA is sixth best in the AL as is his opponents' average of .223. Right-handers really can't hit him (.184) and Berrios has been great in two home starts since being traded to Toronto from Minnesota. Sox starter Dylan Cease has a 5.86 road ERA. |
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08-24-21 | Angels -121 v. Orioles | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have now lost 18 straight games, and they get Ohtani and the Angels next at home. Dylan Bundy has struggled this season but maybe he focuses a little more pitching against his old team tonight. The Orioles bullpen has been terrible lately and Spenser Watkins has allowed at least four runs in 5 straight starts. Fade the Os until they win. |
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08-24-21 | Rays -113 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a battle of bullpens and I like the Rays to win that one every time. Ranger Suarez has pitched well but he has struggled getting deep into games now that he is stretched out. The Rays have many more options after Rasmussen who can open with four innings and they were off yesterday. They lose the DH but with a bullpen game, they should be able to pinch hit and make double switches at will. Take the Rays on the road. |
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08-23-21 | Mariners v. A's -130 | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Close losses have been the story with the Oakland A's, as they lost another game by one run Sunday against the Giants. It should be a different story Monday as Oakland has kept Marco Gonzales from pitching beyond six innings twice this season. Moreover, they were the last team to score multiple runs against Gonzales, on July 25. |
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08-23-21 | White Sox +100 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and the White Sox have won their past two series openers before dropping the series. Lance Lynn is a legitimate Cy Young candidate and hasn’t been able to get that deep lately, but the White Sox have a much better bullpen. Alek Manoah is still a rookie despite the good start to his career. Take the White Sox to win the series opener. |
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08-22-21 | Angels v. Indians -114 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is in Williamsport for the Little League Classic so I'm not about to bet the total not knowing the field all that well. Make sure you double check if you look at those weather MLB sites like I do because many of them are giving Cleveland's forecast. Frankly, this might get rained out. I don't know if I'm related to Cal Quantrill or what but it sure seems so as I manage to pick all of his games. Quantrill is generally going to give us six innings and allow three earned or fewer. The Angels might be out of gas as they haven't had a day off in a few weeks and are playing in their fifth city in a week. |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -174 | 8-4 | Loss | -174 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's almost getting boring backing the Rockies at home. Why the oddsmakers don't have this north of -200 is mystifying. Rox starter Jon Gray has been better both at home and during the day. This time of year on a bad team, always back the guy pitching for a contract. |
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08-22-21 | Mariners v. Astros -186 | 6-3 | Loss | -186 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here is another ML I can't say I understand being under -200. Seattle pitcher Tyler Anderson has been pretty good since coming over from Pittsburgh in a trade, but the Astros eat lefties for lunch. On the flip side, it's Framber Valdez for Houston and Seattle, well, is not good against southpaws (3-7 in past 10). Valdez is 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA in six career games vs. the Mariners. |
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08-22-21 | Marlins v. Reds -123 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vladimir Gutierrez has been dominant lately going 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in August and pitching five straight quality starts overall. Sandy Alcantara is also pitching well lately but he is worse on the road, just like the Marlins are. The Marlins have lost six straight games and the Reds have won seven of their last 10 games. The Reds are tied with the Padres for the second Wild Card spot right now, Jonathan India is sitting but he will probably pinch hit if there is a crucial situation. |
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08-22-21 | Braves -155 v. Orioles | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ohn Means has allowed at least four runs in four of his six starts since returning from the IL, including nine home runs allowed in those six starts. Touki Touissant has had one bad outing but he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his other five starts. The Orioles have now lost 17 straight games while the Braves have won 8 straight games. The Braves also add the DH so they could give one of their main guys a break while keeping him in the lineup. Take the Braves. |
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08-21-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OK, I am going to hang out with my wife now by the pool. But I can't not take this. Rox at just -140 against the worst road team in MLB? Sure. I could give a bunch of pitching stats but that's enough. |
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08-21-21 | Mariners v. Astros -142 | 1-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scary-good price on Houston at home. Frankly, I don't get it. Sometimes, I can throw stats at you, etc., but this is crazy. It's not like the Stros are starting the Lupus kid from Bad News Bears (Kelly Leak, different story). I guess it's because Houston starter Jake Odorizzi has been a bit hit or miss lately but I'll take my chances at this number. |
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08-21-21 | Royals +113 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 113 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kris Bubic was hit hard last time out against the Cardinals, but that was his second time seeing the lineup in a row and he had been pitching well before that. The Cubs also tend to struggle against lefties. Keegan Thompson has been good but he should only go 2 innings or so in a bullpen game. Sal Perez is in the lineup after getting banged up yesterday, take the Royals. |
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08-21-21 | White Sox v. Rays -134 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pretty surprised this ML is so low. Dallas Keuchel is the weak link of the Chicago rotation. Stud Rays rookie Randy Arozarena (yeah, he's tech a rookie even though he dominated the 2020 postseason) is also back in the lineup for the Rays. He got Friday off. |
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08-20-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -168 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams are equally putrid on the road -- literally the same record away -- but Colorado is a monster at home. It also was off Thursday, while Arizona had to use closer Taylor Clarke for 26 pitches to hold off the Phillies, so he's probably out. Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.70 home ERA. He's countered by Mr. Shocking No-Hitter Tyler Gilbert. Tend to think things will go a tad differently in his second big-league start -- first start after no-hitters, many pitchers really struggle because of that previous high pitch count -- and first in Denver. |
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08-17-21 | Padres -105 v. Rockies | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Amidst several injuries, the Padres will start Matt Strahm as an opener for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies. He likely won’t pitch beyond a couple of innings, lessening the impact of his high ERA (8.44). Although the Rockies have been effective at home, pitcher German Marquez has struggled since the All-Star break. Take the Padres at even money. |
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08-17-21 | Brewers -152 v. Cardinals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Tuesday, the Brewers start their third straight road series, at St. Louis. Pitching for the Cardinals will be Adam Wainwright, who is coming off a complete game shutout over the Pirates. He’s also been magnificent against the Brewers, winning four of his last five starts. But I expect yesterday’s off day to be beneficial for Milwaukee, led by pitcher Corbin Burnes. Take the Brewers. |
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08-17-21 | Angels v. Tigers -129 | 8-2 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Could be history tonight as Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is one homer shy of 500 career. The Tigers were off Monday and are 7-1 in their past eight following an off day, but this is more about fading the Angels, who are playing in their third city in three nights (Anaheim, New York, Detroit), and their pitcher, Dylan Bundy. He is 2-9 with 6.21 ERA in 17 starts this year and 1-6 with a 7.48 ERA in night games. I expect this ML to rise a bit during the day. |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -162 | 2-1 | Loss | -162 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have now lost 12 straight games and they are 21-41 on the road. They are 1-15 since the trade deadline and Kyle Hendricks was hit hard by the Reds the last time he faced them, and hit hard by the Brewers in his last start. Vladimir Gutierrez is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in August and he pitched well against the Cubs both times he faced them this season. The Reds didn’t need to use any of their best relievers last night and now they are just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card. As long as we keep getting a ML under -200 against the Cubs, we are taking it. Especially when they’re on the road. |
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08-17-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -113 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are on fire right now but the Red Sox have owned this matchup so far this season. This will be the first matchup since the trade deadline and with the Yankees just 1.5 games back, you know Yankee Stadium will be rockin. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Red Sox three times this season and was one out away from three quality starts. Tanner Houck has been good but he struggles with walks and he doesn’t get deep into games. Take the value on the Yankees at home. |
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08-16-21 | Mets +189 v. Giants | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are in for a challenge against the Giants. On Sunday night, they were trounced 14-4 at home by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a prime-time spot. Now they travel across the country to face the best team in majors. Look for a better effort from New York, which has been priced based on its underachieving play since the All-Star break. Play the Mets. |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox +102 | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel makes his first start against a non-divisional opponent since before the All-Star break. Expect that to be beneficial for Keuchel, as he has recorded just one win since June 15. Back the White Sox as they bounce back after having lost four of their previous five contests. |
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08-16-21 | Braves -160 v. Marlins | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves continue their road trip with the opener of a three-game series in Miami. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as it has won 10 of 12, a stretch that has catapulted the team into first place in the National League East. Expect the momentum to continue as the Marlins four-game winning streak comes to a halt. |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers -172 v. Mets | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Scherzer has been excellent since coming to the Dodgers and may have a bit more on his fastball today as his last start was only 3.1 innings due to rain. In his career at Citi Field, he is 9-2 with a 2.03 ERA. New York's Carlos Carrasco has not been great in his three outings after missing a ton of time with a torn hamstring. Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner is back in the starting lineup after a groin injury kept him out a few games (did pinch-hit Saturday). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -169 | 5-3 | Loss | -169 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox thrive against lefties and face Yanks southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. He had largely been a great rotation fill in but has been a bit shaky of late and his road ERA is two points higher than at Yankee Stadium. Chicago's Lucas Giolito has allowed two earned or fewer in five of his past six. |
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08-14-21 | Blue Jays -134 v. Mariners | 3-9 | Loss | -134 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday featured one of the strangest ninth innings on the year in MLB between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Seattle stole the win as big underdogs with a bases-loaded, walk-off victory. Yet, on Saturday night look for the Blue Jays to snap out of their two-game funk of three runs or less against lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Play the Blue Jays. |
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08-14-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -134 | 7-5 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am trying to figure out if there may be a hangover from that incredible Field of Dreams game. Unprecedented obviously. So I'll just take the Sox here because Dylan Cease has been so good at home and the Yanks are still without all the players why we bet against them on Thursday (and nearly had a stroke). Rare sellout on South Side and I do think that matters slightly. |
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08-14-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Royals | 9-4 | Win | 105 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The sporadic St. Louis Cardinals surprisingly have the second best win streak in MLB at four. To reach at fifth straight win, Jon Lester must overcome his woeful first two starts as a Cardinal. Expect a lot of runs as St. Louis drew five walks and scored five runs against Royals pitcher Brad Keller last Saturday. Take the team with momentum in St. Louis. |
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08-14-21 | Cubs v. Marlins -150 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If you listen (watch? not a tech guy) the Early Edge, you know I am Cubs Fade central. They will obviously win a game or two and burn us but will still be super profitable fading the rest of the way. Won't get prices much lower than this. I don't really see that happening here. Marlins pitcher Zach Thompson has a 2.45 home ERA. |
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08-13-21 | Astros -126 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Angels pitcher Patrick Sandoval has been pretty good, I'm surprised this ML is so low on Houston behind Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.69). He's 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA on the road and has a 2.57 ERA in two starts vs. the Angels. Houston also is expecting back first baseman Yuli Gurriel (.324, 12 HR, 66 RBI) off the injured list. Sandoval allowed four runs in two innings in his lone 2021 outing vs. Houston. The Astros, who destroy lefties, also have the benefit of being off Thursday, while the Angels had to use closer Raisel Iglesias for 1.1 innings so he may not be available. |
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08-13-21 | A's -158 v. Rangers | 6-8 | Loss | -158 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A's have won seven straight. They should be even bigger favorites against a Texas team that's lost eight of nine while getting outscored 49-18. The Rangers rank dead last in OPS versus lefties (.641); tonight they face lefty Cole Irvin, who allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings in a 12-3 rout of Texas last Saturday. Coming off an ankle injury, Texas' Dane Dunning is making his first start since Aug. 2. Lay it as Oakland improves to 38-15 in its last 53 versus the Rangers. |
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08-13-21 | Cubs v. Marlins -112 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are trash, but the Cubs are Lollapalooza last day porta potty sewage at this point, having lost eight in a row -- the past seven by multiple runs. Now Willson Contreras is out. Chicago also had to travel Thursday while the Fish were off. Cubs pitcher Adbert Alzolay actually looks like a potential part of the future but is 1-7 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -110 | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I enjoy being the contrarian among the experts when apt and will be on this game. Was on Boston on Tuesday as well and felt safe with the Sox up 4-1 entering the sixth only for the bullpen to implode. Now five back in the division and almost caught by the third-place Yankees, this feels like desperation time for the Sox. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has been a bit inconsistent of late but can dominate and leads the AL in fewest homers allowed per nine innings. He also has been much better at home (3.42 ERA). On the flip side, Tampa lefty Josh Fleming has a 6.39 road ERA. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Bobby Dalbec are a combined 7-for-11 off him with two HRs. Not betting the total, but consider this: In each of the last 11 meetings between these teams at Fenway Park, they have combined to score at least 10 runs. |
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08-10-21 | Reds v. Braves -114 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Major travel disadvantage for the Reds as after playing Sunday at home had to fly to Cleveland for a makeup game Monday, laid an egg there to see their five-game winning streak end and then fly to Atlanta to open this series. The Braves were off Monday. Two big injury/rest notes here: Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker (.307, 23 HR, 67 RBIs) is not starting, while Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman is back from a non-COVID illness. Cincy pitcher Sonny Gray has been shaky in three of his past four outings, while Atlanta's Drew Smyly rarely gives up more than three runs -- although he rarely goes more than five innings, either. The Braves are 5-1 in their past six series openers. |
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08-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -119 | 8-4 | Loss | -119 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sox are scuffling in a major way, but most of that was away from home -- they are 14-5 in their past 19 at Fenway. Boston is also 3-0 at home vs. Tampa this year. Rays starter Luis Patino has been terrific at home but has a 7.41 road ERA in 17 innings and has never pitched at historic Fenway. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been trending the right way and has thrown at least five scoreless innings in three of his past six. The Red Sox are 9-2 in his last 11 starts overall. |
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08-10-21 | A's -138 v. Indians | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland is 12-4 coming off a day off (second-best winning percentage in MLB) and is hitting significantly better on the road this year than at home. Ace lefty Sean Manaea also is much better away as he has the third-lowest road ERA in the American League (2.64) and second-lowest road opponents' batting average (.198) and OPS (.565). Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA at night. |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About a month ago, I probably wouldn't have bet against the Mets' Taijuan Walker but he has fallen off a cliff or shrub or whatever your metaphor (do people fall off shrubs?). The Phillies' Zack Wheeler also is regressing a bit but is still a better pitcher. Honestly don't love a lot of games today but this seems safe with the Phils on fire. What do I know? I just watched Beaches with my lovely wife and am still crying ... not gonna cry Roy! |
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -154 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Really not sure what to say. I've done some trading and I don't get this. Bet the Rockies at home. Amazing price considering Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.98 ERA at home. This feels at least 30 cents short. |
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08-07-21 | Royals v. Cardinals -158 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Still irked about Dodgers. Would have had the best day of season. Whatever. Price seems a bit low on this one. We won on the Cards on Friday and fully expect to again. Kwang Hyung Kim > Brad Keller. As Denzel said in Training Day said, this **** ain't chess it's checkers. |
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08-06-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -151 | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've bet the Rockies all week, and they should have swept the Cubs but took two out of three. The Marlins aren't much better than the Cubs and are 15 games under .500 on the road. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is a good pitcher but worse away (5-6, 3.71 ERA) and at night (3-5, 4.06). Colorado is 17-5 in its past 22 at home vs. a righty. It starts German Marquez. He is 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts and 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA over his last seven at home. VERY rare to see a total Under 10 in Denver but this one is set at 9.5. I'd probably still lean Under but will not play it. |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -134 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I wouldn't call the Tigers hot garbage on the road, but perhaps warm refuse. Such a different team outside of Comerica Park. And rookie pitcher Matt Manning is the same, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA on the road -- in late June, he was bombed for nine runs in Cleveland. On the flip side, the Tribe's Cal Quantrill has quietly become one of the AL's better pitchers. He's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his past five. Cleveland is 11-5 in its past 16 as a favorite. |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies -107 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a massive game in the NL East, and the Phillies come into it hot. In a matchup of two starters having strong seasons, the home team should have a nice edge that is not fully reflected in this line. Both these teams went deep into their pitching staffs using five pitchers each. The Phillies are 6-1 since June 29 coming off a road game in which they used at least five pitchers. Meanwhile, the Mets are 0-6 since July 27 coming off a game as a favorite in which they used at least five pitchers. |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -175 v. Cubs | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating; Units I've been fading the Cubs all week, and many times I probably will not when Kyle Hendricks is on the mound, especially at home, but man that lineup looks laughable today behind Hendricks with Willson Contreras getting the game off and Jason Heyward (not that he's any good) landing on the injured list. I don't see how the Cubs score much against the Sox's Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07). The Sox do lose the DH but are keeping Eloy Jimenez's bat in the lineup by playing him (dangerously) in left field. The wind is blowing out pretty hard at Wrigley, and Hendricks does give up a lot of homers. Lynn does not. |
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08-05-21 | Phillies -143 v. Nationals | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies starter Aaron Nola isn't nearly the ace he was in years past, but he's been pretty close the last two times out, allowing just three runs in 14 2/3 innings while striking out 14. The Nationals' new-look offense shouldn't be a problem for him. On the other side, Nationals starter Joe Ross spun five scoreless innings against the Phillies on July 26. Seeing him again with this quick turnaround is generally a big benefit to the offense with the familiarity. Plus, the Nationals' bullpen is a disaster right now. Even if it has to be late, the Phillies roll for their fifth straight win. |
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08-05-21 | Cubs v. Rockies -153 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As I've said in this space and the Early Edge all week, I'll be FADING the Cubs in nearly every road game the rest of the season. Probably plenty at home, too. Yep, they burned me in a bit of a fluke on Wednesday, but this still will be a winning strategy overall. The Rockies will go with Antonio Senzatela, who hasn't pitched in about a month after a bout with COVID. His splits are much better at home and during the day. Chicago's Jake Arrieta might be the worst pitcher in the National League right now with a 9.55 ERA over his past eight, and he has really been hammered in three career starts at Coors Field. |