Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-27-23 | Astros -110 v. Cardinals | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Through the first three months of the season, Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has ranked among the top contenders for the American League Cy Young Award. Valdez (7-5, 2.27 ERA) will try to further his case Tuesday when he faces the Cardinals on Tuesday to open a three-game series in St. Louis. He has the second-best earned-run average among the league's qualified pitchers, trailing only Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan (2.23 ERA). Valdez is coming off a 4-2 victory over the New York Mets on June 20, which snapped Houston's five-game losing streak. He allowed the two runs on four hits over eight innings while striking out nine batters and walking just one. Valdez is 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his past six starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 starts overall. The Astros have a little momentum after winning Sunday night, while the Cardinals are jet-lagged after playing in London. |
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06-27-23 | Twins v. Braves -137 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan is an excellent pitcher, but he's been defeated more often than not recently, losing three of his last five outings. In two of those starts, he gave up five-plus runs and two long balls. If he's anything like that on Tuesday, the Braves will jump on him early, putting the Twins in a deficit they're unlikely to recover from. Minnesota hits .221/.300/.374/.674 on the road (37 GP) and .226/.303/.399/.702 in its night games (41 GP). Its' June splits (.229/.293/.401/.694) fall short of the mark, too. Elder has held eight of his last ten opponents to two or fewer runs, and six of those foes were held to one or no runs. |
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06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels -128 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have to fly in to kick off this series, which eliminates any rest advantage to speak of here. Cease goes on an extra day of rest for the White Sox as they chose to send Tanner Banks to the hill in Sunday’s finale against Boston. With that said, he hasn’t been great with extra rest in his career, posting a 10-8 mark with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.363 WHIP, 104 walks and 219 strikeouts over 186.1 innings in 36 starts on five days rest. Detmers has been sharp his last few turns through the rotation and the Angels have been more consistent offensively this season. Playing at home with a lineup brimming with confidence is enough to give the Angels the advantage in this contest. |
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06-24-23 | Red Sox -107 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Paxton has been excellent since returning from the IL and has given the Red Sox arguably a #1 starter to replace the injured Chris Sale. He has been slightly less effective on the road but has still consistently gone into the sixth inning at least on the road. Lynn, despite his last start, has been hit hard this season with an ERA over six and allowed more hits than innings pitched. He has been even less effective at home with a reduced K/9 rate and a higher ERA. The Red Sox have the superior lineup of the two teams and should be able to take advantage of Lynn and his inconsistent stuff. Also, it will be interesting to see how veteran Lynn bounces back after throwing over 110 pitches in his last start and going deep into the game. I like the Sox to take advantage of Lynn in this one and take game two of this series. |
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06-24-23 | Rangers -127 v. Yankees | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers picked up a 4-2 victory in 10 innings in Friday’s series opener, handing the Yankees their second consecutive setback against an American League West team. Texas, meanwhile, has posted wins in 5 of its past 6 outings, including 3 straight wins against American League East Division foes. The Rangers hand the ball to RHP Jon Gray, who was pounded for 6 runs and 6 hits with 3 walks in just 2 1/3 innings in a no-decision on Sunday against Toronto. Texas still managed to win that game. Despite the ugly outing, he is still has a respectable 3.44 ERA in 18 1/3 innings in 3 June outings, including a complete-game loss in his prior outing against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 7. The Yankees counter with RHP Luis Severino, who has been extremely erratic in June. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 outings, and he hasn’t had a quality start while going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA in June. He has allowed 7 home runs in the ugly 18 2/3-inning span, while allowing 9 walks and 29 hits in the 4 outings. |
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06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers will send right-hander Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound Friday for his second career start. The 23-year-old rookie had a dynamic debut last Friday when he did not allow a hit over six innings against the San Francisco Giants. Sheehan had a 0.89 WHIP at Double-A before being called up. The Astros will counter with their own rookie in right-hander J.P. France (2-2, 3.42), who has never faced the Dodgers. France pitched well in his most recent start last Friday against the Cincinnati Reds when he gave up two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings but took the loss anyway against the red-hot Reds. In France's eight career starts, the Houston offense has averaged just 2.9 runs per game. The Dodgers come into this one with a 22-14 record at home. Houston has struggled since June 6, going 5-10 over a stretch played mostly without slugger Yordan Alvarez (oblique). |
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06-23-23 | Mariners v. Orioles -104 | 13-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have been weak offensively all season long, ranking tied for 28th in team batting average (.226), 24th in on-base percentage (.307) and 25th in slugging percentage (.378) as a team entering Thursday’s action. Their offensive numbers could be worse if they weren’t hitting .250 as a team with runners in scoring position on the year. Gilbert has had his issues of late and we know how prolific the Orioles lineup is when it comes to putting runs on the board. Gibson has pitched well this season and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his past six starts, including when he held the Cubs to three runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and two walks over six innings in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. He knows that he can get decent run support from the lineup behind him. That’s something the Mariners, who are 15-20 on the road, haven’t been able to reliably provide for any of their pitchers. Baltimore rebounds after their tough trip to take the opening game of this series. |
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06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -115 | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle has been disappointing offensively as one expected more from Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez this season after what we saw in 2022. The Mariners struggled to get anything going against Cole in the opening game of the series and have had their problems against German, including back on May 29 at home. Sure, they got to German for four runs on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts but still ended up on the wrong side of a 10-4 blowout. Woo has shown good control in his three starts but those are his first outings above Double-A, which means there are growing pains that come with pitching at the big league level. The Yankees have had their own offensive woes with Aaron Judge on the IL but they should do enough against Woo to earn the win here, clinching the series. |
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06-22-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -134 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units During their losing streak, the Pirates have recorded a 112 wRC+ against the southpaws and 37 wRC+ against the righties. Even if the Bucs get to Braxton Garrett, who’ll have to slow down a bit, the Marlins have a few quality righties in their bullpen. Miami’s bullpen has been terrific in the last ten days, notching a 2.83 ERA and 3.35 FIP through 28.2 innings of work. On the other side, the Pirates’ relievers have thrown 25.2 frames in that span while posting a disastrous 9.82 ERA and 5.85 FIP. The Marlins’ offense will have a tall task to hit well against Mitch Keller despite his recent struggles, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh’s bullpen to get the job done. |
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06-22-23 | Diamondbacks -148 v. Nationals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10 games above .500 on the road this season after securing a series win against the Brewers this week. The rebuilding Washington Nationals are playing with no confidence and have dropped seven of their last ten games. They aren't any better at home where they have lost nine of ten. The D-Backs have already played the Nationals five times this season, winning four of the meetings. D-Backs’ starter Tommy Henry just limited the Guardians to two runs in six innings in his latest effort. Arizona has won in each of his last four starts. It’s been a struggle for Nationals starter Jake Irvin, especially at Nationals Park where he has a horrible 6.20 ERA in 24.2 innings. |
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06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We believe that the Angels will win mostly because of the Dodgers’ struggles on the mound. The Dodgers’ relievers have been awful lately, sporting a 5.01 ERA, and better only than Oakland's (5.51) in the majors. Additionally, the Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t impressed in the last few weeks, whereas the Angels’ offense has done an excellent job. Only four guys from this Dodgers team have seen Shohei Ohtani before, combining for six hits and three RBI in 15 at-bats. Ohtani has had ups and downs since terrific April, but I’m expecting to see a strong performance in this game. The Dodgers have recorded an 86 wRC+ against the righties in the last two weeks. |
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06-21-23 | Blue Jays -129 v. Marlins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara's struggles this season are a bit concerning. He dominated last season with his changeup but this season, he has had difficulty getting hitters out with that pitch. Alcantara appears to be one pitcher that has struggled with the shift changes this season with a higher batting average against him and difficulty putting hitters away. After dominating the Nationals over the last two seasons, Alcantara gave up 10 hits against the Nationals in his last start and was only able to strike out one batter. Gausman, meanwhile, has thrived with his splitter this season and has a K/9 rate up over 11. While his ERA raises slightly on the road, it is still under four and generally keeps the ball out of play with a high strikeout rate. I like Gausman to win what may not be as much of a pitchers' duel as it appears on paper. |
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06-20-23 | Cubs -121 v. Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Cubs have found their stride, and they have been doing so at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago is 8-2 in its past 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Pirates last week at home and Monday's 8-0 win in the opener of a three-game set in Pittsburgh. The Pirates, conversely, have lost seven in a row and are struggling to score. Chicago right-hander Marcus Stroman (8-4, 2.45 ERA) is scheduled to start against Pittsburgh right-hander Johan Oviedo (3-6, 4.40). Oviedo struck out eight but gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings to take the loss in that meeting, while Stroman allowed two runs on four hits in six innings and got the win. It was also Stroman's sixth consecutive win. He has a 1.51 ERA during that stretch, which spans 41 2/3 innings. Oviedo, on the other hand, has lost his past three decisions. He is 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs. |
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06-20-23 | Royals v. Tigers -138 | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers have won three of their last four games and have scored 18 runs in their last three home games. They have also hit the ball well against left-handers and Kansas City starter, Lynch has struggled on the mound, giving up 17 runs in four starts this season. He gave up 12 runs in his last three starts against the Tigers and with Kansas City having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Tigers in this game. The Royals have lost nine of their last 10 games and seven of their last eight road games and have struggled offensively on the road scoring only eight runs in their last five road games. They have struggled against right-handers and Detroit starter Lorenzen has done better on the mound at home, giving up 15 runs in five home starts. |
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06-19-23 | Cubs -118 v. Pirates | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at two teams heading in opposite directions over the last 10 days or so entering Sunday. Chicago had won five straight and seven of eight while the Pirates had lost five straight and eight of their previous 10. In the series opener, Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Osvaldo Bido (0-0, 2.25). This is a rematch of Wednesday's game, when Smyly came away with the win and Bido, in his major league debut, did not get a decision despite a good outing. Smyly gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings, with four strikeouts and one walk, but got plenty of offensive support in Chicago's 10-6 win. Smyly has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 outings this year. |
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06-19-23 | Royals v. Tigers -142 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City has lost 14 of its last 16 games after the Los Angeles Angels defeated it 5-2 on Sunday. The Tigers won twice in a three-game series at Kansas City last month. It's been a rough season for the Royals, and right-hander Jordan Lyles, today's expected starter, epitomizes those struggles. Lyles has an 0-11 record and a 6.89 ERA. He's been charged with the loss in six of his past seven outings, including his last start on Tuesday. Lyles, who has made 14 starts, gave up five runs and five hits in six innings against Cincinnati. The Tigers hit much better at home (.246 BA/.320 OBP/.396 SLG/.716 OPS in 33 games) than they do away from Comerica Park (.212/.284/.329/.613 in 36 games) and are also better at the dish at night (.237/.321/.384/.705 in 34 games) than in day games (.219/.281/.338/.619 in 35 games). |
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06-19-23 | Blue Jays -152 v. Marlins | 0-11 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good opportunity for the Blue Jays to get back into the win column on Monday night. The Marlins are turning to an opener in this game which will lead to an extended bullpen effort for Miami. The Blue Jays have hit the ball well despite their inconsistency over the past week. In their last six games, the Jays are hitting .270, have hit eight home runs, and are slugging .428. The Jays will send Berrios to the mound, who is coming off his best performance of the season with 7.2 innings of three-hit ball against the Orioles on the road. Berrios has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month and a half. He has gone 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of just 1.11. Expect Berrios to keep the Marlins at bay as the Blue Jays' offense takes advantage of a bullpen game from Miami. |
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06-18-23 | Giants +115 v. Dodgers | 7-3 | Win | 115 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Something has to give in this matchup with Webb coming in undefeated in his career at Dodger Stadium and Gonsolin with an ERA under 2.00 at home this season. I'm leaning to the Giants in this game for two reasons; they are playing better baseball now, and I trust that Webb will go deeper in this game than Gonsolin. The Dodgers lineup is hitting just .234 in their last ten games with a record of just 4-6 heading into Saturday night's game. The loss of Muncy is also damaging to the Dodgers' middle of the order. which should boost Webb's chances of going deeper in this game. The Dodgers are also hitting just .224 during the day this season while the Giants are hitting .253 during the day. |
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06-18-23 | Angels -121 v. Royals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are 0-6 in Greinke's last six starts, and the Angels are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. The Angels are one of the hottest teams today, and I don't expect that to change tomorrow. Los Angeles scored four runs on seven hits against Zack Greinke earlier this season, launching two homers. I predict another solid day at the plate for LA. Anderson wasn't sharp in his previous outing against KC on April 22 (five earned runs on seven hits), but I don't expect the Royals to have similar success on Sunday. Kansas City is 1-12 straight-up this month, which isn't surprising when you consider its' June splits (.227/.288/.343/.631) at the plate and performance on the mound (5.63 ERA). KC has slightly better splits vs. left-handed pitchers than vs. righties, but it's not consistent enough to warrant a moneyline bet, even at home. |
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06-17-23 | Rays +102 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a good spot for the Padres, but I'd rather take my chances with the Rays. San Diego has struggled to win in favorable spots throughout the season, which is why they are the fifth worst-money team in MLB according to covers.com (-$1,085). On the other side, the Rays are the third-best money team (+$1,122) and 22-6 in their last 28 games against left-handed pitchers. Blake Snell has been pitching better for the Padres as of late, yet still, the club has lost five of his last seven starts. Overall the Rays are 10-2 when Eflin starts this season, and the Padres are just 3-10 when Snell takes the hill. I have to back baseball's best team here. |
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06-17-23 | Cardinals v. Mets -148 | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have won six of their last 10 home games and have scored 14 runs in their last three home games. It’s been a long season for St. Louis starter, Adam Wainwright – and he’s only made 7 starts. Wainwright has a 5.79 ERA paired with a 6.21 xERA in 37.1 innings, and he’s allowed at least 3 runs in every outing so far. His sinker is sitting mid-80s and his curveball isn’t spinning as much as it used to. That has added up to Wainwright becoming a batting practice pitcher this season, and that shouldn’t stop anytime soon. He’s yet to show that he can limit an offense, so until that happens, fade the longtime Cardinal and take New York’s money line. |
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06-17-23 | Orioles +111 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steele (6-2, 2.65 ERA) takes the ball for the first time since exiting his start against Tampa Bay on May 31 with a left forearm strain. Though the Cubs are winless in Steele's past four starts, the left-hander is one inning shy of ranking among the major league leaders in ERA, opponents' batting average (.228) and WHIP (1.06). He has eight quality starts. Steele, who could be on a pitch count, faced Baltimore at home last July and allowed four runs, three earned, and six hits over six innings of a 7-1 Chicago loss. he Orioles will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson, who is a completely unexciting pitcher, but has managed to be serviceable all season. He has pitched to a 3.90 ERA, he hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in his last 5 starts, and the Orioles have won 4 of those starts. He keeps his team in the game so that his offense can work, and they seem overdue after a slow Friday. The Orioles are the better team in every phase of the game, and we don’t love backing a pitcher in his first game back from the IL. |
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06-16-23 | Guardians v. Diamondbacks -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Can't bet against Gallen pitching at home at this point. He's yet to lose a game at home and has an ERA under one. Additionally, his strikeout numbers rise at home and his WHIP lowers. Add to that his matchup on Friday night, a Guardians' team that is just 27th in runs scored per game this season. While Gallen will get the Diamondbacks deep into this game, Mackenzie is still not quite stretched out yet and will likely give the Guardians just five innings in this game. Arizona is hitting .270 at home this season and is fifth in baseball in runs per game as well so they should give Gallen plenty of support in this game. Keep riding Gallen as long as he stays perfect. |
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06-16-23 | Pirates v. Brewers -115 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rich Hill takes the mound for the Pirates. The veteran is usually a fade for me, especially with all the slow-breaking pitches he is flipping up to the plate these days. The Brewers are the worst team in the league against lefties, so he might get away with it on Friday, but we think they will have a better-than-normal day against Hill. The Brewers are starting Julio Teheran, who has had a career resurgence in Milwaukee. He has made 4 starts so far, and his worst was 6.1 innings with 2 runs allowed. If he repeats that performance, it’s going to be hard for Milwaukee to lose. Teheran will certainly not maintain 1.48/0.95 splits all season, but We’ll ride it as long as it lasts. With struggling teams duking it out, I am going to trust the pitcher riding a hot streak and take the Brewers to win the first game of this series. |
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06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -133 | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies have not been a reliable squad to back on the road where they have lost six of their last ten games. The Diamondbacks remain one of the hottest squads, posting a 7-4 record in their last eleven games. They have also won seven of their last eleven home games propelled by the hot offense. Phillies’ starter Ranger Suarez pitched against Arizona late last month and was clobbered, surrendering five runs. D-Backs’ starter Merrill Kelly is dominant, conceding two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. Arizona continues to deliver victories with Kelly on the hill, going 6-1 in his last seven outings. |
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06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas has pounded left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers are hitting .289 vs. lefties this season with a .825 OBPS and 66 extra-base hits. Detmers has an ERA of nearly six on the road this season and should be fodder for the Rangers' right-handed hitting lineup featuring the likes of Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia. Even left-handed hitting Corey Seager is batting .367 vs. lefties this season. The Angels will be able to put up some numbers as well with one of the top run-scoring teams in baseball but will be battling a Rangers team that is tops in run differential this season and has the second-best home record in the American League. This should be an entertaining, high-scoring game that will likely be decided by the bullpens late. |
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06-13-23 | Pirates +130 v. Cubs | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have won eight of their last 11 games and two of their last three road games. They have scored 15 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Taillon has struggled on the mound for the Cubs, especially at home where he has given up 16 runs in four starts. He gave up five runs in his only start against the Pirates, and with Chicago having the seventh-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates in this game. The Cubs have lost four of their last seven games and five of their last seven home games. They have scored only eight runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Ortiz has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up six runs in his last three starts. He gave up one run in his only start against the Cubs. |
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06-13-23 | Reds +100 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are playing the better baseball of the two teams in recent weeks and should be able to keep Lyles winless on Tuesday night. Lyles' propensity for giving up the long ball should favor a Reds' team that has hit nine home runs in its last ten games. Lyles (0-10, 6.84 ERA) will be making his 14th start of the season. He yielded five runs over seven-plus innings in a 6-1 loss to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. Lyles, 32, is 0-5 with a 5.23 ERA at home. Additionally, the Reds have won four of the five games started by Williamson, who should pitch well against a Royals' lineup that is hitting just .240 against lefties this season. KC is scoring just 1.6 runs per game in their last five games heading into Monday night's series opener. The Royals have also won just nine games at home this season while the Reds have won three straight and six of their last eight games. They have also won eight of their last 10 road games. |
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06-13-23 | Yankees v. Mets -145 | 7-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have lost four of the last five when playing the first game of a new series and seven of the last eight following a day off. When playing head-to-head against the Yankees, the Mets have won five of the last six played at home. Both the Yankees and the Mets are playing without their best power hitters as the Yankees are without Aaron Judge and the Mets are without Pete Alonso, but the advantage here goes to the Mets, who will be playing at home in front of their raucous crowd and have talented right-handed Max Scherzer on the mound. Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled in each of the last two starts allowing 15 hits and 11 runs in just 9 Innings with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers and White Sox. Mets starting pitcher Scherzer had a tough outing last Wednesday but prior to that had four strong performances in a row allowing four runs in 25 innings with the New York Mets winning each of the four. |
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06-12-23 | Reds +106 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 106 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zack Greinke will start for the Royals, and he hasn’t been great either. Greinke is 1-6 this year with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Greinke gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in his last start and hasn’t lasted deep into any game this season. That’s an issue when the Kansas City bullpen has the 2nd-highest ERA in the league. The Reds have looked good recently and have scored at a higher rate than they typically have this season within the past week, and the recent call-up of Elly De La Cruz has been beneficial for the Reds. De La Cruz is hitting .316 with a home run and multiple stolen bases. He also flashed his speed in scoring the go-ahead run in yesterday’s game against the Cardinals. De La Cruz has given the Reds a spark and has resulted in an offensive burst for them. The Reds’ offense has been great recently while the Royals have really struggled to score runs. Neither team is sending a great starter to the mound, but the Reds should benefit when both teams get to the bullpen. I’m taking the Reds at plus-money. |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has lost six of the last eight when playing against a team from the American League West, while Texas has won 37 of its last 55 overall and the Rangers have won seven of the last nine when facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles starting pitcher Tyler Anderson was hit hard last time out allowing five hits and four runs in five innings while striking out five but walking three. Over the last two starts, Anderson has allowed 10 runs in just nine innings. Texas has won three of starting pitcher Dane Dunning's last five starts and over that span the right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in 28 ⅓ innings. Texas leads baseball in runs scored, on-base percentage and team batting average and is fourth in slugging percentage while on the mound the Rangers are fifth best in team ERA and 5th best in batting average allowed. The Rangers might have lost two of three to the Rays but have still won 15 of their last 21 and are 21-9 at home. |
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06-12-23 | Giants -127 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants are playing solid baseball, winning four out of their last six games. They have been reliable on the road, sporting a 6-1 record in their last seven road bouts. The Cardinals have struggled to find a groove most of the season and have now dropped seven of their last ten games after a series loss against the Reds. This is an ideal pitching matchup for the Giants. Logan Webb is having an excellent season,and was outstanding in his start against the Cardinals in late April, limiting them to only two runs in 6.2 innings. The Giants have won in three of Webb's last four road starts. Cards’ starter Matthew Liberatore is struggling, allowing eight runs in his last two outings spanning only nine innings. |
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06-11-23 | Mets v. Pirates -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have won seven of their last nine games and five of their last seven home games, scoring 21 runs in their last three home games. They have hit the ball well against right-handers and Mets starter Carrasco has struggled on the mound this season, especially on the road where he has given up 12 runs in four starts. With New York’s bullpen also struggling at the moment, they will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates in this game. The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games and six of their last seven road games. With the exception of his last start, Keller has done a great job on the mound at home, giving up only eight runs in his previous five home starts. He didn’t give up a run in his last home start against the Mets and with Pittsburgh having the 10th-best bullpen in the league, the team won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. |
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06-10-23 | Rangers +105 v. Rays | 8-4 | Win | 105 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays will look to take the series today behind 22-year-old rookie Taj Bradley (4-2, 3.60 ERA). The right-hander allowed two runs on six hits with six strikeouts and three walks over five innings to pick up a 6-2 win against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. Bradley has allowed more than three runs just once in seven starts this season. Bradley will have a tough assignment when he faces the Rangers for the first time in his brief career. Texas has scored a major-league-high 389 runs this season (Tampa Bay is second with 380), and the Rangers have scored at least six runs in 12 of their past 25 games. The Rangers will send ace right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (8-2, 2.24) to the mound today. Eovaldi allowed one hit and no walks over six shutout innings while striking out seven in a 12-3 win over the visiting Seattle Mariners on Sunday. Eovaldi, has given up more than one earned run in just one of his past seven starts. |
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06-10-23 | Marlins v. White Sox +108 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have won five of their last six games and four of their last five home games. They have done well against right-handers and Alcantara has still been unable to regain his form from last season, giving up 11 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the White Sox in this game. The Marlins have won six of their last seven games, but they split their last eight road games. White Sox starter, Kopech has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four starts. He gave up nine runs in his last five home starts and will keep Miami’s offense in check. |
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06-10-23 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Tigers | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona and Detroit return to action this afternoon following an 11-6 Arizona victory on Friday night. The game was 2-2 after 6 innings, and then the Diamondbacks blew the doors open with 7 runs in the 7th. The Diamondbacks are leading the NL West as we are only a couple weeks away from the halfway point in the season. The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson versus Matthew Boyd. Boyd may be the slightly better pitcher, but Arizona is also good against lefties. Both pitchers have been inconsistent over the past month, and both have ERAs above 5.00. I do not expect either one to be lights out. The difference is going to be the hot Arizona offense. They have been hitting the ball very well lately. |
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06-09-23 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Tigers | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers for a quick 3-game series. These teams are on opposite tracks lately as the Tigers have lost 6 in a row while the Diamondbacks have won 8 of their last 10 and lead the NL West. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and he’s having another great season as he’s 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He’s tasked with shutting down a Tigers’ lineup that has been cold recently. The Tigers have scored only 8 runs over their 6-game losing streak and were nearly no-hit yesterday. The Tigers are dead last in the MLB in batting average and have 18 fewer runs than the next-worst team in that department. Michael Lorenzen will start for the Tigers, and he has also had a great season to this point. Lorenzen is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Lorenzen allowed just 1 run in his last start but couldn’t get any run support as the Tigers were unable to win. Arizona ranks 6th in the league in runs scored and is dangerous from any part of their lineup. Lorenzen could pitch great and allow only a couple of runs, but Detroit has a weak bullpen and just a couple of runs could easily be enough for Kelly against the Tigers’ lineup. |
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06-09-23 | Rangers +147 v. Rays | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams have jumped out to the front of the league in almost every offensive category, including ranking 1st and 2nd in runs per game. While the Rangers have been surging in the last few weeks, the Rays have steadily remained one of the best teams in the game since Opening Day. Regardless of the outcome of the series, baseball fans are in for a treat with these two lineups facing off. On the mound for the visitors is Andrew Heaney, a lefty that has come into his own in the last few weeks. He was added to be a 4th arm behind Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, and little did we know that they would turn into one of the best rotations in baseball. Heaney finished May with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which included several impressive outings against the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. And to little surprise, he’s been better away from Globe Life Field, which has seen a lot of high-scoring games, as he’s posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 4 starts on the road. It’s truly impressive how the Rays have been able to remain unfazed despite the numerous injuries to their starting rotation. At the moment, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Josh Fleming and Shane Baz are all sidelined with injuries, so Tyler Glasnow’s return couldn’t have come at a better time. The right-hander has made 2 starts this season and has allowed 4 runs and 9 hits along with 14 strikeouts against the Dodgers and Red Sox. However, it’s concerning that Glasnow doesn’t completely seem like himself yet. His fastball velocity is down nearly 2 MPH from his average and his slider’s RPM are down a bit too. |
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06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -128 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox turn to veteran RHP Mike Clevinger for Game 2 of today's doubleheader after Wednesday’s game was postponed due to poor air quality as a result of the Eastern Canada wildfires. The right-hander Clevinger has a dismal 2-2 road record with a 5.60 ERA across 27 1/3 innings in 5 starts away from home, and he has a shaky 1.51 WHIP. Clevinger has allowed 17 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings in his last 4 road outings, too. The Yankees counter with RHP Randy Vasquez, who allowed 2 earned runs, 4 hits and 3 walks with 6 strikeouts across 4 2/3 innings in a loss against the San Diego Padres May 26 in his only previous outing. The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Giolito held them hitless for 6 innings on Tuesday night, but expect the offense to break out in a big way after being held down, especially after getting a full day of unexpected rest. |
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06-08-23 | Orioles -104 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six Thursday games and the Brewers are 1-5 in their last six Thursday games. The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six during game three of a series, 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 7-3 in their last ten road games. The Brewers slash .224 .304/.399/.703 at home and did not perform as a first-place team should in May (.219/.291/.369/.660). Their June splits aren't any good, either (.205/.303/.327/.630). While they have managed to win five of their previous six, I don't anticipate them going on a much longer winning streak. The Orioles boast the second-best winning percentage on the road (64.5%). Thursday's starter Bradish has been a reliable arm in the O's rotation, holding half his opponents to one or no runs scored. Against a Milwaukee team that's 25th in scoring, 26th in OPS, and 27th in batting average, I'm confident he will have a quality start. |
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06-07-23 | Cubs v. Angels -136 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only four guys from this Chicago team have seen Jaime Barria, combining for four hits (one double) in 11 at-bats. On the other side, the current Angels are only 9-for-50 against Jameson Taillon, but four of those nine hits went yard. Shohei Ohtani is 2-for-8 with a couple of dingers, Hunter Renfroe is 4-for-12 with a homer, and Jared Walsh is 2-for-8 with a round-tripper and 3 RBI against Taillon. Jaime Barria has pitched very well so far this season. It’s hard to trust the Angels’ bullpen, but the Cubs’ relievers haven’t been at their best either, notching a 2-10 record with a 5.19 ERA in May and a 4.60 ERA and 5.94 FIP in the last ten days and 29.1 innings of work. Hereof, I’m going with the Angels, looking for their offense to make a difference. |
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06-07-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -134 | 1-0 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have won six of their last seven games and eight of their last 10 home games. They have the highest-scoring offense in the league and they’ve been on a roll in recent games, scoring 32 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to continue playing well offensively in this game because they’ve done a great job against right-handers this season and Flaherty has been shaky on the mound on the road, giving up 13 runs in his last three road starts. He gave up two runs in his lone start against the Rangers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games and six of their last eight road games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only seven runs in their last three road games. Things won’t get easier for them in this game because Gray has done a great job on the mound for the Rangers and has won five of his last six starts while giving up only three runs. He gave up one run in his last two home starts. |
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06-06-23 | Orioles +114 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baltimore Orioles will be out to continue their road success behind Kyle Gibson when they face the Milwaukee Brewers today in the opener of a three-game series. Gibson (7-3, 3.89 ERA) will be opposed by Freddy Peralta (5-5, 4.62) in a matchup of right-handers. The Brewers lost 2-0 at Cincinnati on Monday after winning the first three games of the series. Milwaukee managed just one hit in six innings against Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, who was making his major league debut. Milwaukee is 28-4 this season when scoring four runs or more, 4-24 when generating three runs or fewer. Gibson has won his past three starts, allowing four runs in 19 2/3 innings for a 1.83 ERA over that stretch. He has not given up a home run in his past four starts and has served up just six all season. Peralta has been inconsistent, losing three of his past four starts. He lasted six innings in his latest outing despite giving up three runs on a pair of first-inning homers in a 3-1 loss at Toronto on Thursday. |
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06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -150 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is a much better-hitting team at home this season, hitting .267 in front of the home crowd including 76 extra-base hits. Starter Luzardo is also much better in front of the home crowd, despite his rough outing in his last start in Miami. His ERA is nearly a run lower at home while his K/9 rate jumps up by a strikeout per game. He faces a Royals' lineup that is hitting just .226 on the road this season and .248 vs. left-handed pitching. Greinke is winless on the road this season and his ERA jumps up by nearly a run and a half away from Kauffman Stadium. The Marlins’ offense is hot, and that is a big deal for a team that was expected to have to scratch for runs and rely on its pitching staff all season. |
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06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -129 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units St. Louis has struggled of late after seemingly righting the ship during the early part of May. The Cardinals stand 10 games under the .500 mark and one has to seriously wonder if John Mozeliak will be a seller at the trade deadline. Wainwright has sputtered in his limited action this season, posting an ERA north of six while averaging just over five innings a start. Texas is a dangerous team as they can win low-scoring games, as we saw in Friday’s opener with the Mariners, and slugfests. Perez has played with fire at times this season, giving up 74 hits in his 61 innings of work, but with the Rangers sporting a run differential of +143 entering Sunday, it’s clear that the bats can make up for any shortcomings on the mound. Give Texas the upper hand here as they prevail at home. |
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06-05-23 | Brewers +112 v. Reds | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are playing better in recent games and this pitching matchup favors them. Brewers’ starter Julio Teheran is making a comeback and so far he looks great, limiting the Giants to one run and the Blue Jays to one run (zero earned) in his two outings spanning 11 innings this season. The Reds have Andrew Abbott making his MLB debut in this game. I usually stay away from pitchers making their debut, especially considering the strength of the Milwaukee bats in this series. They have accumulated 20 runs in the first three games of this series, winning all three decisions. The Reds have hit a bump and are struggling at home where they are 1-5 in their last six games. |
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06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros are scheduled to start right-hander Brandon Bielak (2-2, 3.19 ERA). It will be his first career appearance against Toronto. Bielak has won two of his past three starts, including a 5-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. He gave up one run on three hits over 5 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays are scheduled to start right-hander Alek Manoah (1-6, 5.46). In his one previous start against the Astros, which came on April 23, 2022, Manoah tossed six innings of two-run ball and picked up the win. Manoah, whose only win this season came on April 5, has lost his last two starts, allowing seven runs, six earned, over a combined seven innings. The Astros are 18-6 in their last 24 games since starting the season 17-18. They are also 8-3 in their last 11 road games. |
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06-04-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -145 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miller has pitched pretty well in his first handful of starts in the majors but he was lit up by the Yankees in his last outing. Facing a team with a prolific lineup with plenty of power bats may be a lot to ask of a young guy that hadn’t pitched above Double-A prior to being called up to the majors. Eovaldi has been rolling this season and went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA with nine walks and 31 strikeouts over 37.2 innings in five starts in the month of May. Opposing hitters posted a measly .178/.232/.264 slash line in those outings. After seeing how Seattle sputtered against an equally hot pitcher in Gray on Friday night, you have to give the advantage to the hosts here as the Rangers earn the win to take the series. |
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06-04-23 | Angels v. Astros -144 | 2-1 | Loss | -144 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels have been roughed up in Houston this weekend, as the Astros have won the first three games of this American League West Division series, while outscoring the Halos by a 20-10 margin. Even RHP Shohei Ohtani was unable to pitch them to victory on Friday night. Now, the Halos turn to RHP Griffin Canning to try and salvage something in this series. He is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across eight starts. However, he also has a dismal 7.90 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three daytime starts across 13 2/3 innings, while teams are hitting .291 against him. The Astros are starting to round into championship form after a slow start. Houston is 18-5 in the past 23 games dating back to May 9, and the hot streak started when the team visited the Angels in Anaheim from May 8-10. The Astros are 5-1 in the past six games during Game 4 of a series, while Houston is 38-14 in the past 52 games inside the AL West. In addition, the Astros have been stacking wins, going 11-3 in the past 14 games following a win, while cashing in 11 of the past 16 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. |
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06-04-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +112 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t nearly as dangerous on the road where they are only two games above the .500 mark. They lost two of three to the Cubs prior to this series and lost game one of Saturday's DH. The Red Sox are three games above .500 at home. Rays’ starter Taj Bradley is an inexperienced rookie. The right-hander does not go deep into games, last 5.1 or fewer innings in all but one start this season, and the Rays bullpen is actually a bit of a weakness, ranking 22nd in the big leagues with a 4.32 ERA to go with a 1.34 WHIP. Tampa Bay has lost in each of Bradley's last three starts while Boston has won in four of Houck's five home starts this season. |
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06-03-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers +115 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both Yankees and Dodgers have hit the righties well in the last couple of weeks (New York 110 wRC+, Los Angeles 116 wRC+). On paper, the Yankees have a huge advantage on the mound, but I’m backing the Dodgers to come out on top and eventually hand Gerrit Cole his first loss in 2023. Cole has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs, including four home runs, over 11 innings. He also has been more hittable on the road this season. Some of the Dodgers own a strong record against Cole. Mookie Betts is 7-for-14, Freddie Freeman is 6-for-17 with three doubles, and David Peralta is 5-for-12 with three doubles. JD Martinez is only 8-for-40 but has slugged three doubles and a couple of home runs off Cole, who struggled a lot in his last two outings. |
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06-03-23 | Tigers v. White Sox -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With one big swing of the bat, the Detroit Tigers finally solved Dylan Cease last weekend. They'll have to face their nemesis once again in the middle game of a three-game series in Chicago on Saturday afternoon. The White Sox right-hander is 10-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 14 career starts against the Tigers. He has also recorded 96 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings in those outings. Cease had three straight quality starts prior to his rough outing on Sunday and has been a better pitcher at home this season than on the road. The White Sox have hit the ball better at home this season and have improved overall as a lineup in the month of May after struggling throughout April at the plate. The return of Elroy Jimenez will further help the White Sox cause and Cease should thrive back at home against a Tigers' team that is still among the worst overall hitting clubs in baseball. |
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05-29-23 | Rays -124 v. Cubs | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are more than capable of putting up runs but the Rays have been the better team when it comes to holding the opposition in check. Bradley has pitched well in his first taste of the majors as he is up as a matter of necessity with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen on the shelf. Stroman turned in his best start of the year against the Mets in his last start but has been spotty against Tampa Bay in his career going 5-8 with a 5.04 ERA in 16 career starts against them. He yielded eight runs (seven earned) on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-2 home loss to Tampa Bay last season. This Rays team is loaded with talent and confidence, which is something that can’t be overlooked by any stretch of the imagination. Look for Tampa Bay to come into the Windy City and take the opening game of this series thanks to their ability to come up with clutch hits, something the Cubs have lacked in all season. |
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05-29-23 | Guardians v. Orioles -135 | 5-0 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles had a rough weekend against a powerful Rangers lineup but things should quickly turn around for the Orioles facing the light-hitting Guardians. Orioles starter Wells has thrived at home this season with an ERA of just 2.64 and faces a Guardians team that is last in baseball in runs per game and just 28th in batting average. The Orioles, meanwhile, are hitting .260 vs. left-handed pitching this season and .264 during the day. The Orioles love to run, ranking third in baseball in stolen bases, and Cleveland is just 20th in the league in throwing out runners. Expect the Orioles to grind out at-bats and run early and often against the Guardians on Monday afternoon to generate runs. |
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05-28-23 | Giants -122 v. Brewers | 5-7 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers' struggling offense doesn't get any favors today against Giants starter Alex Cobb, who is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA, fourth best in all of baseball. Cobb has started 10 games, totaling 58 innings and striking out 52 while walking just 14. He started against Milwaukee on May 6 and dominated, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing five hits and striking out five to pick up the victory. He's 2-1 with an 0.64 ERA in four starts against the Brewers. Cobb will oppose against Brewers starter Colin Rea, who is 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA, but picked up his first win as a starter since 2016 in his last outing against Houston. The right-hander entered the rotation when Brandon Woodruff went down with injury in April and will make his eighth start and ninth appearance. His last start was arguably his best, pitching 5 1/3 shutout innings against the reigning World Series champions while striking out four. The Giants have had the Brewers' number this season, currently 5-1 against the NL Central leaders after winning two of three in the first week of May in San Francisco. |
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05-28-23 | Nationals -102 v. Royals | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Nationals franchise, it's a fortuitous matchup as they have won 15 of 20 previous games against the Royals, including a 5-1 mark as the Montreal Expos from 2002 to 2004. Kansas City has never won a series against Nationals. The Nationals won 12-10 on Friday and 4-2 on Saturday, and they're looking for their first three-game series sweep since June 14-16, 2021, against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore (3-3, 3.88 ERA) has never faced the Royals nor any of their current hitters. The Royals starter will be lefty Daniel Lynch in his first start of the season after a left shoulder strain sent him to the injured list in March. Over the last three games the Nationals have rallied from deficits to score 20 runs in the sixth inning or later. Royals relievers have allowed 31 runs over 50 1/3 innings pitched in 11 losses during the past 14 games, and have also allowed 12 runners inherited from starters to score. In their last five losses, the Kansas City bullpen has given up 22 runs in 18 1/3 innings. |
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05-27-23 | Phillies v. Braves -129 | 2-1 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies are stumbling, winning only four out of their last ten games. The squad was swept in their previous road series by the Giants and was dealt a series loss by the Diamondbacks this week. They have only won 10 of their 27 road games on the season. The Atlanta Braves have won two of their last three series. Phillies starter Zack Wheeler hasn’t been nearly as strong as last season. The veteran has posted a subpar 4.44 ERA in his four outings this month and the Phillies have lost in three of his last four starts. While Braves’ starter Charlie Morton struggled last time out, the right-hander has been solid, conceding two or fewer runs in two of his last three starts. |
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05-27-23 | Giants +104 v. Brewers | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams figure to need all hands on deck for a pitchers' duel Saturday between right-handed staff aces Corbin Burnes (4-4, 3.97 ERA) of the Brewers and Logan Webb (3-5, 2.91) of the Giants. The All-Star hopefuls will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. Both pitched brilliantly in their first encounter when the Giants won 2-1 in 10 innings in Milwaukee in August 2021. Burnes limited the visitors to one run and four hits in seven innings, while Webb was nearly a mirror image, allowing one run and three hits in six innings. Burnes not only will be facing a hot club today, but will take the mound riding a two-game losing streak in which he was roughed up for eight runs and 15 hits over 11 innings by the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros.The 28-year-old began May with a 6-4 loss at San Francisco in which he served up a first-inning home run to J.D. Davis among five runs allowed in six innings. Webb has been one of the best pitchers in the National League in May, going 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA over four starts. He has nothing to show for brilliant outings his last two times out, limiting the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins to a total of one run in 13 innings in 2-1 and 1-0 defeats. Webb has never lost to the Brewers, going 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. |
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05-27-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -113 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers will look to Andrew Heaney (3-3, 4.13 ERA) to keep the momentum going. The left-hander is coming off one of his best starts of the season, when he allowed just one unearned run on six hits with five strikeouts and two walks in six innings of a 13-3 win over the visiting Colorado Rockies on Sunday. However, Heaney has struggled against the Orioles throughout his career. He's 1-3 with a 9.51 ERA with 15 strikeouts and four walks over 23 2/3 innings. He has surrendered a whopping 12 homers across six appearances, including five starts. Heaney was rocked by the Orioles when he faced them in his first start this season. He was lit up for seven runs on seven hits, including two homers, with two strikeouts and two walks in just 2 2/3 innings of a 7-2 setback on April 4. The Orioles, who must beat the Rangers on consecutive days if they're to win their third straight series, counter with Dean Kremer (5-1, 4.61). The right-hander was also impressive in his last start, when he gave up a run on nine hits with seven strikeouts and two walks over 5 1/3 innings of an 8-3 win in 11 innings over the host Toronto Blue Jays. |
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05-26-23 | Red Sox -134 v. Diamondbacks | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston left-hander Chris Sale (4-2, 5.01 ERA) will take the ball today for his 10th start of the season. Sale has struck out 62 in 50 1/3 innings but also has served up eight homers. The 34-year-old pitched superbly in his last two outings. He gave up one and three in eight innings in a no-decision against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 13 and then allowed two runs and three hits over seven innings in a victory over the Padres on Saturday. In his last four outings, Sale has 32 strikeouts against three walks in 27 1/3 innings. Longoria is just 6-for-38 with 15 strikeouts in his career against Sale. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 3-for-18 with one homer. Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 7.65) will make his fifth career start for Arizona. He has served up seven homers in 20 innings. Pfaadt, 24, received a no-decision in his last outing when he gave up three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Pirates. |
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05-26-23 | Dodgers v. Rays -116 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays have won four of their last six games and nine of their last 12 home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring 14 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to continue playing well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Syndergaard has struggled on the mound so far, especially on the road where he has given up 16 runs in his last four starts. He gave up six runs in two starts against the Rays, and with Los Angeles having the seventh-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Rays in this game. The Dodgers have lost three of their last five games and four of their last seven road games. |
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05-25-23 | White Sox -127 v. Tigers | 2-7 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Faedo has done a solid enough job keeping baserunners at a minimum but the problem is, they end up coming around to score. He’s given up five homers in his 15 innings of work, which has to be cause for concern if you’re a Tigers fan. Chicago knocked him around in his lone career outing against them last year and the White Sox have seemingly started to turn a corner after a horrific start to the season. Giolito has been solid, throwing at least six innings in eight straight starts and he has allowed two runs or less in six of those outings. The Tigers have struggled at the plate this season, ranking last in the AL in runs scored. |
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05-25-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -144 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alek Manoah got shelled by Tampa's offense once at home, and there's little reason to think it won't happen again. Manoah has simply been ineffective this season, while the Rays are hitting nearly every pitcher in their path. Meanwhile, Tampa's Zach Eflin has consistently guided the Rays to home wins in 2023, with four of the five outings multi-run victories. Neither bullpen is reliable right now, so this comes down to starting pitching and offense. Both factors favor Tampa at home. |
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05-24-23 | Orioles v. Yankees -120 | 9-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wells has been solid this season for Baltimore, though he has been hurt by the long ball, surrendering 10 homers in his body of work. That could prove problematic against a Yankee team that has the combination of Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo near the top of the lineup, along with other power bats throughout the order. Cortes has been rough in his work, though he is coming off a solid outing in his last start. He has been a bit unlucky as his FIP ERA is 4.51, nearly three-quarters of a run lower than his actual number. Cortes has thrived against Baltimore in his career while Wells has scuffled against the Bronx Bombers going 0-4 with a 4.68 ERA |
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05-24-23 | Dodgers +105 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers have several key pitchers injured but fortunately, they have Tony Gonsolin on the mound in this one. Gonsolin has been lights out. He has not allowed an earned run in three consecutive starts spanning 16 innings and the Dodgers have won in three of his last four outings. Gonsolin has yet to allow an earned run on the road this season. The Dodgers' offense is hot. They have amassed five or more runs in eight of their last nine games including an 8-6 win in Monday's series opener and another eight runs on Tuesday. Braves' starter Elder is pitching well but is still a young pitcher and has yet to pitch against the Dodgers in his career. While his ERA is at 2.06, his Expected ERA is higher at 4.55. |
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05-24-23 | Rangers v. Pirates +112 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Perez has done an excellent job for the Rangers over the past season and a half, he's been less effective on the road. This season, in particular, Perez's ERA jumps up nearly a run and a half on the road. He now comes up against a Pirates team that has hit left-handed pitching very well this season. The Bucs are hitting .274 against lefties thus far, have a .455 slugging percentage, and an OBP of .792. Oviedo has been slightly better at home than on the road and, more importantly, has kept the ball in the yard at home. He has allowed just one home run at home this season which will be critical against a Rangers team that is 7th in baseball in home runs. I look for the Pirates to take the third and final game of this series with a slightly better starting pitcher and timely hitting against the soft-throwing Perez. |
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05-23-23 | Padres -139 v. Nationals | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres haven’t been at their best however they have Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish has been the Padres’ most reliable starter this season and has allowed two or fewer runs in two of his last three outings including just one run in six innings against the Dodgers. The Nationals have only won two of their last six games. Nationals starter Mackenzie Gore is a promising young pitcher but has been inconsistent and has recorded a subpar 4.66 ERA in his four starts this month. He doesn’t pitch deep into games, logging 5.1 or fewer innings in three of his last four starts and the Nationals do not have a reliable bullpen, ranking 22nd with a weak 4.30 ERA on the season. |
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05-23-23 | Cardinals -133 v. Reds | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The St. Louis Cardinals are looking a lot better in recent games and have been reliable on the road, winning five of their last seven road games highlighted by a sweep of the Red Sox in that span. They just won three of four against the Dodgers on the weekend ignited by the offense. The Reds are scuffling, dropping six of their last eight games. Reds’ starter Graham Ashcraft has been clobbered in recent outings. He has surrendered a whopping 19 runs in his last four starts spanning only 18.1 innings, resulting in an abysmal 9.33 ERA in May. He struggled against the Cardinals last season, conceding eight runs in nine innings. |
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05-23-23 | White Sox +119 v. Guardians | 4-2 | Win | 119 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox are playing their best baseball of the season with six wins in ten games heading into Monday night's opener against Cleveland. They are hitting .252 against lefties this season and have an OBP of over .700 as a team vs. lefties. Allen has lived a bit dangerously lately while giving up 15 hits in his last 10 innings of work. Cease has a 12.0 K/9 rate on the road this season and faces a Cleveland lineup that is 29th in baseball in runs scored. The Guardians have won just three of their last ten games heading into the series opener, including losing two of three to the White Sox in Chicago last week. |
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05-22-23 | Giants v. Twins -139 | 4-1 | Loss | -139 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco has lost four of its last five when playing against the team with a winning record. San Francisco has only the 20th best team batting average and is coming off a game on Saturday in which the Giants were held to three hits and no runs. Minnesota has baseball's third best team ERA and is allowing the second lowest batting average by opponents at .224. San Francisco starting pitcher Alex Cobb lasted only 3 ⅓ innings last time out allowing five hits and two runs but struggled with control, issuing five base on balls. Minnesota starting pitcher Bailer Ober has had five consecutive solid starts, allowing 20 hits and six earned runs in 24 ⅓ innings, with Minnesota winning four of the five. |
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05-22-23 | Tigers +105 v. Royals | 8-5 | Win | 105 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City has been awful this season and their inability to generate consistent offense has been a major reason why. We have seen them total one run in their first two games against the White Sox over the weekend and that lack of run support makes things tougher for what has been a struggling pitching staff. Lorenzen turned in a solid outing in his last start, blanking the Pirates over six innings at home, and has been solid in his last several turns in the rotation. Detroit is still a sub-.500 team but they have played better baseball after a sluggish start to the year. You can’t say that about the Royals and that is enough to give the advantage to the Tigers in this contest. |
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05-22-23 | Rangers -121 v. Pirates | 4-6 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have won five of their last seven games and four of their last five road games. They have the highest-scoring offense in the league and they’re playing very well offensively at the moment, scoring 23 runs in their last three games. They’ve done a great job against right-handers this season and Pittsburgh starter, Ortiz has struggled on the mound, giving up nine runs in two starts. He gave up five runs in his only home start and will have a hard time slowing down the Rangers in this game. The Pirates have won three of their last five games, but they’ve lost seven of their last eight home games. They don’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Texas starter, Dunning has done a great job on the mound for the Rangers, giving up only five runs in his last four starts. He has given up five runs in six road starts this season and didn’t give up a run in his only start against the Pirates. |
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05-21-23 | Twins v. Angels -143 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels are 5-0 in Ohtani's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record and 7-1 in his last eight starts on grass. They're also 13-4 in their last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 19-7 in their last 26 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Twins are 2-6 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter, 3-10 in their last 13 vs. American League West, and 8-23 in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are not playing well in Southern California, and I don't predict their road trip will end on a high note today. Minny's road splits are poor (.208/.287/.364/.650), and it's facing one of the elite starters in baseball. Additionally, he's coming off a poor outing, which should motivate his competitive edge today. Ohtani has a 2.38 ERA in his career vs. the Twins. |
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05-21-23 | Tigers v. Nationals -127 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals, who ended a four-game losing streak with a 5-2 win on Saturday after dropping the series opener 8-6 on Friday, will turn to their ace in today's series finale. Right-hander Josiah Gray (3-5, 2.73 ERA) held the Miami Marlins to two runs (one earned) on seven hits with five strikeouts and three walks in a 5-4 loss in his last start this past Tuesday. Gray has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts. After giving up three homers in his first start of the season on April 1, he's only given up two in his past eight starts combined. The Tigers will counter with left-hander Joey Wentz (1-3, 6.38), who yielded three runs on six hits with three strikeouts and a walk in just 2 2/3 innings. The Nationals are very good at putting the ball in play against LHP as they strikeout just 17 percent of the time. |
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05-21-23 | Yankees -145 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Severino will return from a lat strain and hopes to watch Judge and Rizzo produce more big hits when the New York Yankees go for the three-game sweep of the host Cincinnati Reds today. Severino, who missed two months with the same injury last season, is pitching for the first time since an ALCS Game 2 loss at the Houston Astros, 3-2 on Oct. 20. His most recent regular-season outing was seven hitless innings at Texas on Oct. 3. That effort capped a season where he returned from Tommy John surgery by going 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts spanning 102 innings. Severino is 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA in two career starts against the Reds. The Reds hope a solid showing by Hunter Greene (0-3, 4.60 ERA) can help erase the disappointment of the previous two games. Greene allowed three earned runs or fewer in his first eight starts before getting tagged for six runs and nine hits in four innings of a no-decision Monday at Colorado. Greene allowed two homers and has allowed five in his past three starts. |
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05-20-23 | Red Sox +122 v. Padres | 4-2 | Win | 122 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sale (3-2, 5.40 ERA) will make his ninth start of 2023 on Saturday night in San Diego against Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (1-1, 6.63). Sale will face the perfect team to dominate. The Padres have lost three in a row and 10 of their last 12 games. And Friday afternoon, Manny Machado, the Padres' emotional leader, went on the 10-day disabled list with a hairline fracture in his left hand -- the result of getting hit on the hand by a fastball from the Royals' Aroldis Chapman. Musgrove will make his fifth start of the season Saturday. He didn't make his debut until April 22 after suffering a fracture to the big toe of his left foot during a spring training workout. And his second start came in the thin air of Mexico City, where he gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings on six hits, including three homers. His two most recent starts -- both against the Los Angeles Dodgers this month -- didn't represent a total return to form. He gave up five runs (four earned) on 10 hits and seven walks with 10 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. |
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05-20-23 | Twins v. Angels -117 | 6-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has lost 22 of its last 30 games played on the road when facing a team that has a winning record and the Twins have lost 14 of the last 19 played on the road when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Minnesota's Louis Varland was hit hard last time out allowing four hits and three runs in 6 ⅓ innings including giving up two home runs. Los Angeles starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval had a strong outing this past Sunday allowing five hits and two earned runs in 7 ⅔ innings but did not take part in the decision against Cleveland. Los Angeles has three players that have already hit 10 home runs apiece, making it difficult for opposing teams to pitch around hitters. Los Angeles has won 12 of the last 16 played at home when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Angels have won four of the last five head-to-head against Minnesota. |
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05-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -134 | 4-3 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite their poor play as of late, this game leans heavily toward the Pirates. Keller has been outstanding this season with seven quality starts among his nine starts overall. He has been even better at home with a perfect record and an ERA of 2.00 exactly. Brandon Pfaadt, meanwhile, has been mostly ineffective in his three starts thus far with an ERA over 8.00. He has allowed seven home runs in just three appearances this season and has a hard-hit percentage that is over 50%. The Pirates' offense, which has struggled during this current stretch of poor play, has scored six runs per game in their last two wins. Look for the Pirates to provide enough support for their ace on Saturday to pick up the win. |
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05-19-23 | Marlins +120 v. Giants | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sandy Alcantara will turn the corner sooner rather than later. He can only pitch better than he did last Saturday, so I’m backing the Marlins to stay on the winning path. The current Giants are 22-for-90 with three doubles and five home runs against Alcantara. On the other side, the current Marlins are 20-for-59 with a couple of doubles and homers versus Anthony DeSclafani, who’s yielded eight earned runs on 15 hits over his previous two starts and 12 innings of work. Over the last ten days, the Marlins have posted a 109 wRC+ against the right-handed pitchers, whereas the Giants have recorded a 90 wRC+ against the righties in that span. During that stretch, Miami’s bullpen has registered a 3.21 ERA and 3.20 FIP to go with a 3-1 record and three saves, while San Francisco’s bullpen has gone 3-2 with four saves, 4.42 ERA, and 4.86 FIP. Miami and San Francisco already met each other in April, and the Marlins won two out of three games in front of the home fans. |
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05-19-23 | Dodgers -124 v. Cardinals | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to dominate, winning seven of their last eight games entering Friday including a sweep of the Padres in that span. The Cardinals are playing better recently but have been one of the worst home squads in the big leagues, winning only eight of their 22 games at Busch Stadium. Dodgers’ starter Tony Gonsolin has been lights out. Gonsolin has not allowed a run in his last two starts against the Brewers and Padres and has conceded just three runs in his 19 innings of action this season. Cards’ starter Steven Matz has not been reliable. He has surrendered 19 hits in his last 15 innings of work and has an ugly 5.61 ERA on the year. The Cards have lost in six of his eight starts this season. |
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05-18-23 | Guardians +140 v. White Sox | 3-1 | Win | 140 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians have struggled out of the gate in this series, losing each of the first two games. I like them to bounce back in the series finale behind rookie pitcher Allen. Chicago is hitting just .246 against lefties this season and Allen has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard this season. Cease, meanwhile, has struggled with his command and has a hard-hit ratio of nearly 50%. He also is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA near 6.50. Look for the speedy Guardians to get on base, run and advance runners against Cease as he struggles to find the zone. |
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05-18-23 | Nationals v. Marlins -147 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals have Trevor Williams on the hill. The right-hander has not been as sharp recently, squandering 10 runs in his last four outings spanning only 17 innings. He has also been horrible on the road where he has posted a poor 5.66 ERA in four outings. Nationals starter Eury Perez is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He allowed two runs and struck out seven in 4.2 innings in his debut against the Reds last week. He should be even more comfortable in his second start. Perez is a right-hander and the Nats haven't been dangerous against righties, posting a .652 OPS against right-handed starters compared to a .759 OPS against lefties. The Fish have won three in a row and I expect another victory in this one. |
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05-18-23 | Angels v. Orioles -148 | 6-5 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson (1-0, 5.26 ERA) opposes right-hander Tyler Wells (3-1, 2.68) in the matinee. Anderson won his first start of the season, throwing six shutout innings against the A's on April 2, but has had six no-decisions since. In those six games, his ERA is 6.25 and he has 17 walks to go along with 21 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings, though his ERA over his past three outings is 3.06. Last time out, he allowed three runs on six hits in six innings against the Guardians. Anderson has never faced the Orioles. Wells, meanwhile, lost his first start of the season back on April 9. Since then, he is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in six starts, with 31 strikeouts in 36 innings while walking nine. In his last start, he tossed seven shutout innings in a win against the Pirates. Wells allowed just one hit while walking two and fanning eight. The eight strikeouts were a career high for the 28-year-old. |
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05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros -150 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The current Astros are 11-for-29 with three doubles and two home runs against Drew Smyly. Jose Abreu, who went 2-for-3 with a couple of RBI last Monday, is 6-for-11 with two doubles and a home run versus Smyly. Although the Astros own a 91 wRC+ against the lefties in May, I think they can get to Smyly in this one. The Cubs, on the other side, sport an 88 wRC+ against the righties in May. They’ve never met J.P. France before, and Cody Bellinger’s eventual absence would be a huge blow for the Cubs on both sides of the ball. The Cubs’ bullpen has thrown a staggering 40.2 innings over the last ten days, posting an underwhelming 4.65 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 6.4 K/9. On the other side, the Astros’ bullpen has tossed 27.2 frames in that span, tallying a 4.23 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 11.7 K/9. |
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05-17-23 | Angels v. Orioles -139 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels will look to bounce back on Wednesday behind Griffin Canning (2-1, 6.38 ERA). The right-hander was ineffective in his latest start, when he allowed five runs on five hits with three strikeouts and a walk in just 3 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to the Houston Astros on May 10. He has a 10.38 ERA in two starts this month. Canning has struggled in three career appearances (two starts) against the Orioles, going 0-2 with a 14.46 ERA, eight strikeouts and seven walks in 9 1/3 innings. He was rocked for six runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings the last time he faced Baltimore on July 2, 2021. The Orioles will hand the ball to right-hander Kyle Bradish (1-1, 4.56 ERA), who will be facing the Angels for the first time. Bradish is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He held the Pittsburgh Pirates to an unearned run on three hits with six strikeouts and a walk in six innings during a no-decision on Friday. |
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05-17-23 | Pirates v. Tigers -155 | 8-0 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers are 4-0 in their last four vs. a team with a winning record and 6-0 in their last six interleague home games. The Pirates are 11-29 in their last 40 interleague road games. Detroit is hitting much better against lefties (.249 BA/.309 OBP/.411 SLG/.719 OPS) than they are against righties (.226/.290/.339/.629), with better home splits than road splits. Detroit starter Rodriguez (4-2, 1.57 ERA) signed a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers as a free agent prior to last season. In his latest outing, Rodriguez limited the Cleveland Guardians to four hits and struck out eight in seven innings on May 10. Rodriguez will be opposed on Wednesday by 43-year-old left-hander Rich Hill (3-3, 4.35 ERA). After winning his last three starts in April, Hill is 0-1 with a no-decision in two May outings. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings at Colorado on May 10. |
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05-16-23 | Guardians -120 v. White Sox | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bieber has been as reliable as it gets this year, surrendering three or fewer runs in all his starts. In his last outing, he didn't give up a run, and aside from a couple of long balls was on point in his previous start against the Yankees (two runs in eight innings). The 27-year-old was victorious in three of five outings vs. Chicago last season, holding the Southsiders to two or fewer runs in four of those appearances. He lasted six-plus innings in all five starts, including nine innings on July 12. The White Sox have worse splits against right-hand pitchers than lefties, including a .293 OBP, .378 SLG, and 24.2% K-rate. They'll struggle to put enough runners on base to inflict any damage vs. Bieber, |
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05-16-23 | Cubs +143 v. Astros | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justin Steele is Chicago's win day, and he gets to face an offense that hasn't put things together at home this season. Steele should pitch six or seven strong innings before ceding to the bullpen. Christian Javier will probably have a solid start too, considering the Cubs are struggling offensively also, but should get outdueled by Steele. It's on the Cubs' bullpen to shut this down, and I think that they do. Roll with the away team, which has the starting pitcher and a batting order that's been better this season. |
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05-16-23 | Angels v. Orioles -125 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore starter, Dean Kremer has allowed just one run over 12 innings in his past two starts. Kremer has thrown five career scoreless innings vs. LA. It's Chase Silseth (3.24 ERA) for the Angels. He was solid in his first three relief appearances this year but was roughed up for six runs over 3.1 innings last time out. Silseth was 1-3 with a 6.59 ERA in seven starts as a rookie and allowed four earned over four at Camden Yards. |
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05-15-23 | Twins v. Dodgers -108 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LA’s bullpen has gone 5-0 with five saves, 2.82 ERA, and 10.6 K/9 through the first 13 days in May (38.1 innings pitched). Over the last seven days, the Dodgers’ relievers have recorded a 3.48 ERA and 3.39 FIP, whereas the Twins’ bullpen has posted a 4.66 ERA and 5.67 FIP in that span. The current Dodgers are 23-for-70 with six doubles and a pair of home runs against Pablo Lopez. Freddie Freeman is 11-for-33 versus Lopez, and Will Smith is 2-for-5 with a home run. Los Angeles owns a .244/.337/.463 triple-slash and 121 OPS+ against the righties in 2023. The Dodgers aim for their 11th straight victory over the Twins. Last year, the Blue Crew went 4-0 against Minnesota. |
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05-15-23 | Brewers -104 v. Cardinals | 1-18 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Flaherty is 3-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 17 career games against the Brewers, including 16 starts. Christian Yelich has a career .905 OPS against Flaherty -- and overall he has a .348/.400/.630 slash line in his last 12 games and three homers in the last two. The Brewers started the month 2-7 before sweeping the Royals. Freddy Peralta (4-2, 3.32 ERA) will draw Monday's start for the Brewers. He brings a string of three straight quality starts into this game, including his 9-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start. On April 9, Peralta earned a 6-1 victory over the Cardinals while holding them to one run on four hits in six innings. |
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05-14-23 | Giants -129 v. Diamondbacks | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco will try to even the series today with an experienced starter who has had success against the Diamondbacks. Giants right-hander Logan Webb (3-5, 3.46 ERA this season) is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against them. He has 34 strikeouts, with nine walks, in 34 innings. Webb will oppose Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 12.10) on Sunday. Pfaadt, a fifth-round draft choice in 2020, has allowed six home runs in the first two starts of his career. He gave up four home runs against the Texas Rangers on the road in his major-league debut May 3, but the Diamondbacks rallied to win 12-7. Jorge Soler of the Miami Marlins hit two home runs against him in Arizona's 6-2 loss Tuesday in Phoenix. Pfaadt, whose fastball has been clocked as fast as 95 mph, has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. He has as many home runs allowed (six) as he does strikeouts. The Giants are 5-1 in their last six games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 5-2 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks are 3-9 in their last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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05-14-23 | Rangers -142 v. A's | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the A’s managed to come through with the victory in the second game of the series on Friday night, projecting them to have that kind of power surge again is likely foolhardy. You can’t expect the A’s to put up nine runs or hit four homers in a contest with any regularity as they have struggled offensively all season, especially at home. Texas is one of the deepest lineups in the league and they are a dangerous team offensively. Heaney hasn’t been great on the mound but he is clearly better than Rucinski. Look for the Rangers’ bats to do their job and the A’s to wilt in clutch situations, giving Texas the upper hand on getaway day. |
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05-14-23 | Angels -102 v. Guardians | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The Guardians are 0-4 in their last four home games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-11 in their last 12 overall vs. a lefty starter. Cleveland is also 1-5 in its last six games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Guardians are hitting .220 with a .295 OBP against Southpaws, and Sandoval pitched well against them last season, surrendering two earned runs in two starts (12.1 IP), fanning 12 batters, and picking up a win. The Angels have solid splits in day games (.265 BA/.341 OBP/.435 SLG/.777 OPS) and on the road (.259/.330/.381/.711) this season and 5-0 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. |
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05-13-23 | Pirates v. Orioles -160 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore pitches better at home and gets to face an ice-cold Pirates offense. Tyler Wells is their top starter and has not lost since April 9. In five starts since then, he is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks. Wells settled for a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday after allowing one run on three hits over five innings. The Orioles' bullpen is one of the hardest to score on at any venue. Pittsburgh's starter, Roansy Contreras, has been rocky in May allowing nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings over his past two starts overall. He surrendered five runs on nine hits in five innings of a 10-1 setback to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. |
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05-13-23 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -126 | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox have won nine of their last 11 games and six of their last seven home games. They are playing well offensively at home, scoring 26 runs in their last three home games. They will continue playing well offensively in this game because they hit the ball well against left-handers and Matz hasn’t looked good on the mound this season, especially on the road where he has given up six runs in two starts. He gave up 10 runs in his last three starts against the Red Sox and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 10 road games. Sale has done a good job on the mound at home for Boston, giving up two runs in two home starts. He gave up one run in his lone start against the Cardinals and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Boston to cover the money line. |
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05-13-23 | Rangers -135 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s are arguably the worst team in baseball. Their pitching has been abysmal, they can’t hit, their fielding is mediocre and their fans don’t even bother to show up. Oakland has turned its back on the franchise, much like the A’s have seemingly turned their backs on competent baseball. Oakland starter, Sears has decent peripherals when it comes to WHIP along with K:BB ratio but giving up 10 homers is a major problem. That’s an average of 2.4 long balls per nine innings and opposing hitters are posting a robust .300 with runners in scoring position against him. Those aren’t the numbers you want to have when you’re facing a Texas team that piles up runs by the truckload. Give the Rangers the upper hand in this contest as they earn the victory behind Gray. |
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05-12-23 | Rangers -165 v. A's | 7-9 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The worst pitching staff meets the highest scoring offense in baseball, so I’m not going to overthink this game at all. Give me the Rangers. Texas left-hander Martin Perez (4-1, 3.86 ERA) will try to keep the good times rolling even though he is coming off his worst performance of the season -- seven runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. However, only his stats were negatively affected as the Rangers powered to a 16-8 win. Perez pitched much better -- one run in six innings -- but likewise got more than ample offensive support in a 15-2 win over the New York Yankees in his previous start. The 32-year-old veteran owns a 9-7 record with a 4.46 ERA in 22 games (21 starts) vs. Oakland. The A’s are just 6-for-32 with a pair of doubles against Martin Perez. Texas holds a 118 OPS+ against the left-handed pitchers in 2023, and the current Rangers are 7-for-22 with five doubles and a home run against Ken Waldichuk. |
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05-12-23 | Astros -141 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have had their struggles when it comes to getting decent pitching this season. Lynn has been bad, Kopech has been obliterated by the long ball and Dylan Cease sports a 5.58 ERA after eight starts this season. Throw in that they’ve had major issues putting runs on the board as key contributors are having miserable starts to the year and it’s easy to see why the team is well below the .500 mark on the season. J.P. France, a 28-year-old rookie right-hander, is set to make his second career start for Houston today. France (0-0, 0.00 ERA) took a no-decision in his major league debut at Seattle on Saturday, spacing three hits, one walk and five strikeouts in five scoreless innings. Right-hander Michael Kopech (1-3, 5.97 ERA) gets the call for Chicago. Kopech earned his first victory of the season on Sunday in Cincinnati, overcoming four solo home runs by the Reds in six innings during a 17-4 White Sox romp. Kopech is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in three career appearances against Houston, including two starts, with seven strikeouts in 12 innings. |
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05-12-23 | Pirates v. Orioles -145 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Pirates aren't hitting, they also are not pitching well, either. During a 1-5 homestand, Pittsburgh starters fashioned a 6.75 ERA in the five losses, and relievers compiled a 5.14 mark Pittsburgh will turn to right-hander Johan Oviedo (2-3, 5.59 ERA) in the opener of the series. Oviedo is 0-2 with a 12.08 ERA in his past three starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. He has struck out eight and walked seven during that stretch. Last time out, Oviedo allowed seven runs -- six earned -- on 10 hits in five innings of a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He has never faced the Orioles, who will counter with right-hander Kyle Bradish (1-1, 5.95). |