01-14-12 |
Air Force +11 v. Boise State |
|
74-59 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
Air Force is a quirky team to prepare for. They run an extremely slow offense while making opponents defend for the entire shot clock. And it
|
01-13-12 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5 |
|
83-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 4 m |
Show
|
Portland takes to the road for the first of a six-game trip. The Blazers come off a 107-104 home loss to Orlando on Wednesday night. But that game was not as close as the 3-point margin indicates. Portland trailed that game by 17 points going into the fourth quarter before out-scoring the Magic by 14 points over the final 12 minutes. Off such a poor performance, we can expect Portland to start this game fast, and since they are now more of a fast-paced team with their new personnel, the Blazers will want to get the Spurs into a transition game right from the opening tip.
San Antonio
|
01-13-12 |
Drake v. Evansville OVER 146 |
|
69-60 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
We
|
01-12-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Golden State Warriors +3 |
|
117-109 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
Orlando is off back-to-back road wins; the Magic won 104-97 at Sacramento and 107-104 at Portland last night. Scoring 100 points or more in back-to-back games has been a negative performance pattern for Orlando in their third game, especially if that game is on the road. In fact, Orlando is 4-5 SU and just 1-8 ATS based on tonight
|
01-12-12 |
Tennessee v. Mississippi State -7.5 |
|
58-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
Tennessee comes into tonight
|
01-11-12 |
Wake Forest v. Maryland Terrapins -5 |
|
64-70 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 4 m |
Show
|
Maryland is a totally different team now than they were earlier this season. The Terrapins were playing without two of their better players as Pe
|
01-10-12 |
Miami (Fla) +16 v. North Carolina |
|
56-73 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
Miami Fla is a totally different team right now than they were earlier in the season. The Hurricanes had to play their first nine games of this season without their best player, Reggie Johnson, who was recovering from knee surgery. Miami was also without DeQuan Jones for their first eleven games as he was suspended indefinitely on accusations of receiving improper benefits. But Jones
|
01-10-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 |
|
111-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
Chicago comes into tonight
|
01-10-12 |
Toronto Raptors v. Washington Wizards -2 |
|
78-93 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
Toronto bounced back with a solid win last night after dropping their two previous games. The Raptors played well last night despite center Amir Johnson being
|
01-08-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 v. Phoenix Suns |
|
93-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee hasn
|
01-08-12 |
Maryland Terrapins +11 v. NC State |
|
74-79 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
Maryland is a totally different team now than they were earlier this season. The Terrapins were playing without two of their better players as Pe
|
01-07-12 |
Stanford v. Oregon State -3.5 |
|
103-101 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
We used Oregon State as a Best Bet winner in their 92-85 home victory versus California on Thursday night and the Beavers once again present solid value as a small home favorite tonight. Oregon State is a much better team than their 1-2 SU conference record would seem to suggest. Their two PAC-12 losses might have actually been beneficial to this team as star player Jared Cunningham had suggested that his team may have become too overconfident after their sensational 10-2 non-conference run.
|
01-07-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +4.5 |
|
98-95 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
These two teams just played last night in Oklahoma City with the Thunder winning in a blowout, 109-94. Houston has not played well on the road (0-5) so we
|
01-05-12 |
California v. Oregon State -1 |
|
85-92 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
Oregon St returns home off back-to-back losses at Washington and Washington St. The Beavers are 0-2 in conference play after those two games so tonight
|
01-04-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 196.5 |
|
83-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
Miami is a team looking to play at a frenetic pace this season. We
|
01-04-12 |
Duke -7.5 v. Temple |
|
73-78 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
This game will be played at the Wells Fargo Center and not on Temple
|
01-03-12 |
Connecticut v. Seton Hall +3 |
|
63-75 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
Seton Hall is playing some very good basketball right now. The Pirates are 12-2 with one of those losses coming at a 15-0 Syracuse team that is ranked #1 in the country. Head coach Kevin Willard has done a tremendous job at Seton Hall, and it helps that forward Herb Pope has been 100% healthy this season. Pope is a force in the paint, and he
|
01-02-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 v. Denver Nuggets |
|
86-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee was besieged by injuries last season, and the Bucks were never able to play to their true abilities. But this season, we expect the Bucks to be a pretty good team as long as they can avoid the injury bug once again. They have thus far and they
|
12-30-11 |
Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 |
|
93-113 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 43 m |
Show
|
Houston came through for us last night in a big way as they crushed the Spurs by 20 points (105-85). The Rockets were in a terrific situation for that game, but tonight they are in a bad spot. Houston came into last night
|
12-30-11 |
Miami Heat v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 208.5 |
|
103-101 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
Miami is a team looking to play at a frenetic pace this season. We
|
12-29-11 |
Oregon State +6 v. Washington |
|
80-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
Oregon State is a very good team this season; the Beavers have a legitimate shot in the Pac 12 this year because the league is wide open. They come into tonight
|
12-29-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +2.5 |
|
85-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a terrible scheduling spot for San Antonio, especially since the Spurs are an older team. They played last night so they will be on a back-to-back set for this game. This will also be their third game in four nights, and considering the lack of conditioning due to the lockout, the Spurs figure to be out of gas in the second half in this game. San Antonio played in a fast, high-scoring game last night in their 115-90 win over the Clippers. The Spurs played a perfect game as well as they shot 56.2% (45-80) from the floor and 52.6% (10-19) from three-point land. They also hit 100% (15-15) of their free throws. We do not expect that same efficiency tonight.
Houston has played just one game this season; they lost 104-95 at Orlando. But the Rockets were at a disadvantage for that game as the Magic already had a game under them while Houston didn
|
12-28-11 |
New York Knicks -3.5 v. Golden State Warriors |
|
78-92 |
Loss |
-109 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
New York projects to be a much better team this season. Even though the Knicks made the playoffs last year, they simply got their based on pure talent. After playing together for the last half of the season, the Knicks
|
12-28-11 |
Mississippi State +8 v. Baylor |
|
52-54 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game will be played in Dallas and not on Baylor
|
12-28-11 |
Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 187.5 |
|
96-95 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
Miami is a team looking to play at a frenetic pace this season. We
|
12-27-11 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat OVER 187 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
Miami is a team looking to play at a frenetic pace this season. We saw that in their season opener at Dallas in which the Heat scored 105 points despite scoring just 8 points in the fourth quarter after pulling their starters. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra made numerous visits to Oregon football coach Chip Kelly during the NBA lockout in order to learn the concepts behind Kelly
|
12-26-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings +2.5 |
|
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
Despite losing at the buzzer to the Bulls yesterday, the Lakers are still a team to play against right now. Los Angeles was trailing by 7 points at the half, but they played a good third quarter when they out-scored Chicago 20-12. That allowed them to get back into the game, but if we look at the big picture, the Lakers still had their troubles. They scored 20 points or less in 3 of the 4 quarters and Kobe Bryant had 28 of their 87 points scored. That
|
12-25-11 |
Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
|
88-87 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
Chicago will be one of the best teams in the NBA this season. Anything less than a return trip to the Eastern Conference Finals would be a major disappointment this season. The Bulls have a loaded roaster and a terrific head coach in Tom Thibodeau. This team has great continuity as well, and they are simply well-prepared for the upcoming shortened season. The same cannot be said of the Los Angeles Lakers, a team that is mired in turmoil.
Los Angeles simply has way too many issues to be competitive in this game. Kobe Bryant is playing hurt after tearing a ligament in his wrist. Andrew Bynum will miss the first four games due to a suspension. Because of Bynum
|
12-25-11 |
Miami Heat -4 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
105-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
Miami will be the best team in the NBA this season. It took the Heat months to get together last season, and once they did, we saw some major blowouts and spread runs by Miami. This team will not struggle out of the gate this year because they have a full year of playing with each other under their belts. In their preseason games against Orlando, the Heat were visually impressive, and they looked like they were in mid-season form. This is a team that is on a mission to win the NBA title, and we expect them to make a big statement in this game this afternoon.
Dallas won the NBA championship last season after they defeated Miami in the Finals. But the Heat blew late leads in those games, and that is something that they haven
|
12-25-11 |
Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 187.5 |
|
105-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
This total is priced based on last year
|
12-22-11 |
Baylor v. Saint Marys CA +4 |
|
72-59 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
This game will be played in Las Vegas on a neutral court so neither team will have the home court edge. But of the two teams, Saint Mary
|
12-21-11 |
Middle Tenn. St. +3 v. Mississippi |
|
68-56 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
Middle Tennessee St is probably the best
|
12-21-11 |
Seton Hall +4 v. Dayton |
|
69-64 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
Seton Hall is playing some very good basketball right now. The Pirates are 9-1 with their only loss coming against a Northwestern team that should be in the NCAA tournament come March. Head coach Kevin Willard has done a tremendous job at Seton Hall, and it helps that forward Herb Pope has been 100% healthy this season. Pope is a force in the paint, and he
|
12-21-11 |
Texas +11.5 v. North Carolina |
|
63-82 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
Coming into this season, Texas was a team labeled in rebuilding mode. The Longhorns lost a lot from last year
|
12-20-11 |
North Carolina State v. St Bonaventure -1 |
|
67-65 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a much bigger game for St. Bonaventure than it is for NC State. The Bonnies are getting a rare chance to host a team from a major conference, and this is their opportunity to get a signature win on their resume. They are also catching the Wolfpack at the opportune time. NC State hosted the #1 team in the country (Syracuse) on Saturday in a nationally televised game. The Wolfpack geared-up for that game, but after losing 88-72 to the Orange, they will have little interest in this game against a
|
12-20-11 |
Old Dominion v. Richmond -4 |
|
82-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
Both of these teams have struggled as of late as Old Dominion has lost two straight games and four of their last six while Richmond has lost three straight games. But of the two, we expect Richmond to snap out of their funk tonight and get back into the win column. The Spiders have played 7 of their 11 games on the road this season so they are getting a much needed game on their home court tonight. They are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming in their last home game against a strong offensive team in Iona.
Richmond will not be facing a strong offensive team tonight as Old Dominion is one of the weakest offensive teams in the country. The Monarchs are averaging just 59.5 points per game on 37.3% shooting. On the road they
|
12-19-11 |
Marquette -7.5 v. LSU |
|
59-67 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
Marquette is quietly playing tremendous basketball this season. The Golden Eagles are 10-0 on the season, and they own an impressive 61-54 win at one of the toughest places to pay in college basketball. Marquette won at Wisconsin, and that win alone signifies just how good the Golden Eagles are. This team is getting it done on both ends of the floor as their offense and defense rank high in efficiency numbers. Marquette is shooting an incredible 49.7% from the field this season while averaging 84 points per game. Their defense is allowing just 62 points per game on 37.4% shooting.
LSU simply does not have enough offense to trade points with the potent Marquette attack, especially since the Tigers will be without their leading scorer. Andre Stinger is dealing with fainting and dizzy spells and he will miss tonight
|
12-17-11 |
Alabama v. Kansas State +2 |
|
58-71 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game will be played in the Sprint Center in Kansas City and not on the campus of Kansas St. But the Wildcats will certainly have the crowd edge in this game. Alabama and Kansas St have played outstanding defense this season; the Crimson Tide allow just 35.6% shooting from the floor while the Wildcats allow just 36.6%. These two teams figure to play a slow, defensive grinder in the half court. And in games like this, the team that can be more efficient on offense will usually come out ahead. And in this case, we expect Kansas St to be that team.
Kansas St is averaging 10 points per game more (76-66) than Alabama, and they
|
12-16-11 |
Cal Santa Barbara +8 v. Washington |
|
80-87 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
This game is the classic case of a team being a big favorite purely on name recognition. UC Santa Barbara is a very good team from the Big West conference. The Gauchos have played in back-to-back NCAA tournaments, and their team this year is significantly better. Santa Barbara is every bit as good as Washington is, but the Huskies are laying big points simply based upon their name and reputation. The Gauchos have played better basketball this season, and they own all of the meaningful statistics in this match-up.
Santa Barbara has excelled in all of the efficiency stats that we follow, and they
|
12-14-11 |
Tennessee +3.5 v. Charleston |
|
65-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a rematch game from last season; Charleston went into Tennessee and crushed the Vols 91-78. That ugly home loss has not been forgotten by the Tennessee players, and tonight is their chance to settle the score with the Cougars. It
|
12-13-11 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Oregon State -16.5 |
|
53-95 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 53 m |
Show
|
Oregon State is a very good team this season; the Beavers have a legitimate shot in the Pac 12 this year because the league is wide open. They come into tonight
|
12-10-11 |
Pennsylvania v. UCLA -6.5 |
|
73-77 |
Loss |
-102 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
UCLA
|
12-10-11 |
Miami (Fla) +6.5 v. West Virginia |
|
66-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
Miami has a talented basketball team this season. Head coach Jim Larranaga came over from George Mason, and he said that he would have never left Mason had it not been for the significant talent Miami had on hand. Larranaga has a team that can compete at a high level, and with his tremendous coaching on the defensive end of the floor, the Hurricanes are a dangerous team, provided they get the right match-up. The Hurricanes are missing a couple of guys because of injury, but they are just fine with the guys on the court when they face similar type teams. Miami was waxed by Memphis in their last game, but the Tigers had too much speed and height for the Hurricanes.
Tonight
|
12-09-11 |
Richmond +3.5 v. Virginia Commonwealth |
|
51-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
Both teams came into this season off deep NCAA tournament runs; Richmond made it to the Sweet 16 while VCU advanced to the Final Four. But the Spiders and Rams each had to replace a lot of starters from those teams, and they had a lot of questions heading into this season. The two teams have come out strong as Richmond is 6-2 while VCU is 5-3. But aside from the similar win/loss record, Richmond has played significantly better basketball, and they
|
12-07-11 |
Vanderbilt v. Davidson +1.5 |
|
87-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 31 m |
Show
|
Davidson is playing terrific basketball this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 with their only loss coming at Duke, a game in which they led at the half. Tonight is a huge game for Davidson as they get the rare visit from a big-name team from a big-name conference. If the Wildcats win this game, it will be a huge resume builder for them come March, just in case they fail to win their conference tournament. This game is being called
|
12-06-11 |
Iowa v. Northern Iowa -7.5 |
|
60-80 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is an in-state rivalry game that always means a little something more to Northern Iowa. The Panthers are viewed as the
|
12-03-11 |
West Virginia v. Mississippi State -3 |
|
62-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
West Virginia is a very young and inexperienced team this season. The Mountaineers have just 2 seniors on their roster which includes a whopping 7 freshman. This will be their first road game of the season, and the first collegiate road game for the majority of their roaster. And with this game being played in Starkville against a very good and experienced Mississippi St team, this is an extremely tough situation for West Virginia. The seniors know what they are in for tonight, especially with the youth surrounding them.
|
11-30-11 |
Wisconsin +7 v. North Carolina |
|
57-60 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
We played against North Carolina on Saturday night and UNLV beat the Tar Heels outright (90-80) as an 8-point underdog. And we have no hesitation in fading North Carolina off that loss, especially since they
|
11-29-11 |
Miami (Fla) +9 v. Purdue |
|
65-76 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
This line is based on name recognition and nothing else. Purdue has had a solid basketball program for a long time, but you think of football when you hear Miami
|
11-26-11 |
UNLV +7.5 v. North Carolina |
|
90-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
This game will be played at the Orleans Casino so UNLV will have somewhat of a home court edge. We all know how good and talented North Carolina is, but very few realize just how good UNLV is. The Rebels return four starters and eight contributors from last year
|
11-21-11 |
Notre Dame v. Missouri -4 |
|
58-87 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
This game is part of the CBE Classic and it will be played in the Sprint Center in Kansas City and not on the campus of Missouri. But even with this game on a neutral court, Missouri will still have a significant home court edge. Notre Dame lost a lot from last year
|
11-20-11 |
Seton Hall v. Northwestern -3.5 |
|
73-80 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
Northwestern is the only team from a major conference that has never played in the NCAA tournament. But this is the year the Wildcats will get to the Big Dance provided they win games like this. They cannot afford to lose to mediocre teams like Seton Hall and expect to get an at-large big. Northwestern simply needs to win, and win convincingly in order to enhance their credentials come March. The Wildcats are the superior team in this game, and they hold a big experience edge over an inexperienced Seton Hall team that has played younger teams in their three games so far.
Seton Hall needed overtime to beat St. Francis (NY) in their season opener, and then in this tournament, they played a rebuilding VCU and a St. Joseph
|
11-18-11 |
Wichita State v. Alabama -3 |
|
60-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game will be played in Puerto Rico as part of the Paradise Jam tournament. It is also a rematch from last year
|
11-16-11 |
Creighton -1 v. UAB |
|
70-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
Creighton is the best team in a loaded Missouri Valley conference. The Bluejays return 5 of their top 6 scorers from last year
|
11-14-11 |
Detroit +7.5 v. Notre Dame |
|
53-59 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 14 m |
Show
|
Detroit is the best team in the Horizon League this season. And that
|
11-14-11 |
Richmond v. Davidson -4 |
|
61-74 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
If you think a few year
|
11-12-11 |
Butler v. Evansville +3.5 |
|
77-80 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
Butler has done some fantastic things over the last few years; the Bulldogs have played in back-to-back national championship games. But at some point, all of the talent that got them that far would eventually be gone. And that is the case this season. Butler lost their major contributors from the last few seasons; gone are Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack, Zach Hahn, and Shawn Vanzant. The Bulldogs will be playing with 7 newcomers this season, and it
|
11-11-11 |
St. Josephs -4 v. Western Kentucky |
|
72-61 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
Game analysis will ready at 12 pm ET. 10* Play ST. JOSEPH'S (-).
|
06-12-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187.5 |
|
105-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
What we saw in Game 5 on Thursday night was out of line from the previous four games in this series. Dallas and Miami both played exceptional offensive games while their defenses failed to show up. The Mavericks scored 112 points as they shot 56.5% (39-69) from the field and an incredible 68.4% (13-19) from three-point land. Dallas cannot shoot any better than that, and we expect a regression in tonight
|
06-09-11 |
Miami Heat +1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
103-112 |
Loss |
-111 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
The fourth quarter was not kind to the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Tuesday night. They coughed-up a 9-point lead over the last 10 minutes of the game when Dallas went on a game-winning 21-9 run to even the series up at 2. Miami scored just 14 points in the fourth quarter after making just 5 of their 15 shots. Overall, the Heat did not play a good offensive game as they shot just 42.7% (32-75) from the field and an abysmal 14.3% (2-14) from three-point land. LeBron James played a terrible game as he scored just 8 total points on 3-11 shooting. Off a loss in which Miami played an overall poor game, we expect the Heat to bounce back strong tonight, especially LeBron James.
Miami
|
06-07-11 |
Miami Heat +3 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
83-86 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
Miami bounced back strong with a tremendous effort in Game 3 in their 88-86 win over Dallas on Sunday night. Miami
|
06-05-11 |
Miami Heat +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
88-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
After Miami pulled away from Dallas to win Game 1 92-84, the Heat were looking good late in Game 2 as they held a 15-point lead midway through the fourth quarter. The Mavericks closed the game on a monster 22-5 run which was capped by a Dirk Nowitzki game winner with less than 4 seconds left to play. So we
|
06-02-11 |
Dallas Mavericks +5 v. Miami Heat |
|
95-93 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
Game 1 was tight throughout until Miami pulled away over the final 3 minutes of the game. The Heat used what was essentially a 15-8 run (eliminating Jason Kidd
|
05-31-11 |
Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Miami Heat |
|
84-92 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
The NBA Finals get underway tonight as Dallas opens the series in Miami. The Mavericks and Heat have both played spectacular basketball in the playoffs so far, and this series doesn
|
05-26-11 |
Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -3 |
|
83-80 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
05-25-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
96-100 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City blew a golden opportunity to tie the series at 2 games apiece in Game 4 on Monday night. The Thunder held a 15-point lead with just 5 minutes left to play in the game, but Dallas went on a 17-2 run to take the game into overtime. The Mavericks
|
05-24-11 |
Chicago Bulls +5 v. Miami Heat |
|
93-101 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 12 m |
Show
|
Going into the fourth quarter of Game 3 on Sunday night, Miami only held a 3-point lead over Chicago. But the Heat put together a strong final 12 minutes and out-scored the Bulls 28-20. Miami won the game by 11 points (96-85), but the game was a lot closer than that for the majority of the four quarters. Off back-to-back losses, we really expect Chicago to come with their
|
05-23-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 |
|
112-105 |
Loss |
-108 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
Game 3 played out similarly to Game 1. Dallas won the series opener by 9 points and they won by 6 points on Saturday night. However, their wins over the Thunder in both games were not
|
05-22-11 |
Chicago Bulls +5 v. Miami Heat |
|
85-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
41 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Bulls were the best team in the NBA this season with a 62-20 (.756) SU record and they dominated Game 1 last Sunday night with an easy 21-point blowout win over Miami. Chicago suffered a predictable letdown in Game 2 and we used Miami as a Best Bet winner on Wednesday in their 85-75 outright underdog win. However, the situation now favors Chicago in Game 3 and we get excellent line value with Chicago as a rare underdog as the oddsmakers have adjusted this pointspread nearly 7 full points because the change of venue and because of the Game 2 result.
The Bulls are still 4-1 SU against Miami in the five head-to-head meetings this season, including 3-1 in the past four meetings when both teams have played with their full lineups (LeBron James missed the first game on January 15th). Chicago won the final two regular season meetings straight-up as a +3 and a +5
|
05-21-11 |
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
93-87 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City was in a solid bounce-back situation in Game 2 on Thursday night and the Thunder handed the Mavericks a rare loss. Despite the setback, Dallas still played well and they actually held an 11-point lead in the game. Overall, the Mavericks have still been the best team in the league over the past month with a fantastic 13-3 SU record and an incredible 15-1 ATS mark. Dallas has been a perfect 5-0 ATS in the playoffs as an underdog this season and they qualify in a solid 60% ATS bounce-back situation in Game 3 this evening.
Dallas played well after their other two playoff losses this season year which both occurred in the opening round at Portland. The Mavericks first loss occurred in Game 3 at Portland and Dallas covered the next game (Game 4) in a misleading 82-84 loss as the Mavericks held a 23-point lead in that defeat. Dallas then responded with an easy 93-82 win in Game 5 in which they lead by 20 points. The Mavericks swept the Lakers in the next round, outscoring the two-time defending champions by +56 points which was an average +14 point margin of victory per game. Dallas then carried that momentum into Game 1 against Oklahoma City in a 9-point win (121-112) in which Dallas led by 16 points, including an 11-point lead entering the fourth quarter.
The value lies with the underdog tonight, especially since Dallas will be extra motivated by a straight-up loss. There is also possible dissention and turmoil on the Thunder after star point guard Russell Westbrook was benched for the entire fourth quarter in Game 2. Back up guard Eric Maynor played well, but Westbrook is one of the most important players in the league and the key reason why Kevin Durant led the league in scoring. If Westbrook and the Thunder are not on the same page tonight, this will be a major blow to the team
|
05-21-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 201 |
|
93-87 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
The first two games were high-scoring in Dallas, however this has now created line value with the Under as the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust the total higher and this line is now 8 points higher than the opening total in Game 1 and 6 points higher than the closing total in Game 1. It is an over-adjustment and Game 3 in a long-term 60% Under play when both Games 1 & 2 were extremely high-scoring.
The reason for the high scores has been excellent shooting by both squads, but the pace of each game has not been that fast and my re-scoring pace model totaled just 198.5 in Game 1 and only 190.5 in Game 2. The two teams were incredibly a combined 113-for-129 (87.6%) from the free throw line in the first two games which is well above their expected average for the season. These were two of the best free throw shooting teams in the league this season, but Oklahoma City still shot just 82.1% FT, while Dallas hit only 77.7% FT on the season. Both clubs also shot above their expected percentages from the field in Games 1 & 2. Oklahoma City shot 55.7% FG in Game 2, including 38.9% from three-point range, while Dallas shot 53.4% FG in Game 1 and 39.1% from long-range.
My re-scoring percentage model totaled just 193.5 in Game 2 which is the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages from the field. Look for both defensive units to increase their intensity tonight, especially after two poor performances. Oklahoma City became a better defensive team after the All-Star break when they acquired Kendrick Perkins in the middle and Dallas has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season, allowing just 95.5 points per game (versus opponents that average 99.7 ppg).
The Thunder also became more focused on defense in the previous series against Memphis starting with Game 3. The first two games against Memphis went 2-0 Over with total scores of 215 and 213 points, but then the next four games went 4-0 Under (excluding overtime) with total scores of just 172, 192, 171, and 178 in regulation time.
10* Play UNDER the total.
|
05-19-11 |
Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
106-100 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
Dallas picked up right where they left off as they beat Oklahoma City 121-112 in Game 1 on Tuesday night. That win by the Mavericks was their seventh straight and it came after an 8-day layoff. Dallas has also gone 14-0-1 ATS over their last 15 games so it
|
05-18-11 |
Miami Heat +2.5 v. Chicago Bulls |
|
85-75 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
What we saw in the first half of Game 1 on Sunday night was exactly what most expected in this series. Miami and Chicago are two supremely talented teams that are just about equal across the board. The game was tied at 48 after the first 24 minutes of basketball, and the second half was thought to play out the same with the game coming right down to the wire. However, that did not happen as the Bulls dominated the last 24 minutes of play as they out-scored the Heat 55-34. Miami
|
05-17-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
112-121 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Western Conference Finals get underway tonight as Dallas hosts Oklahoma City. Game 1 has a peculiar setup to it as the Mavericks have been off for 8 days after sweeping the Lakers in the last round. Oklahoma City will be playing their fifth game over the last 8 days as their series with Memphis went a full 7 games. Based on that fact alone, one may assume that Dallas has a huge advantage for tonight
|
05-15-11 |
Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181 |
|
82-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 30 m |
Show
|
The match-up everybody predicted to see in the Eastern Conference finals begins tonight as the Bulls host the Heat with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. The Bulls and Heat were the top two seeds, and both handled their business in their first two playoff series. Chicago had a little more trouble with their two opponents; the Bulls beat the Pacers 4-1 and beat the Hawks 4-2. Miami defeated their two opponents in relative quick order; the Heat beat the Sixers 4-1 and they also beat the Celtics 4-1. Both teams have played overall good basketball in the playoffs so far, but they
|
05-13-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 |
|
83-95 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 58 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City took a 3-2 series lead after their 27-point blowout win over Memphis in Game 5 on Wednesday night. The Thunder won 99-72 as the Grizzlies played their worst game of the playoffs; Memphis shot just 35.9% (28-78) from the field and 25% (2-8) from three-point land. But we
|
05-12-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179 |
|
93-73 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
05-11-11 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7 |
|
87-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
Boston was feeling good when they held an 11-point lead over Miami in Game 4. The Celtics appeared to be on their way to get themselves back into a series tied at 2 apiece, but their lead slowly evaporated and the game ended up in overtime. Miami was too strong in the extra session as they out-scored the Celtics 12-4 which concluded a 29-17 run by the Heat over the game
|
05-10-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 |
|
83-95 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
05-09-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies |
|
133-123 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
Memphis took a 2-1 series lead after their huge fourth quarter and overtime comeback in Game 3 on Saturday night. The Grizzlies trailed by as many as 16 points in that game, and they trailed by 13 points going into the last 12 minutes of play. Memphis out-scored Oklahoma City 23-10 in the fourth quarter to take the game into overtime where they completed the comeback with a 101-93 win. Both teams played terrible on offense as they each shot less than 38% from the field and they went a combined 7 of 31 from three-point land. The Grizzlies won the game at the free throw line as they attempted 21 more shots (44-23) resulting in a +9 margin at the charity stripe.
The Thunder played their worst game of the playoffs so far as they scored just 93 points. And it was their lowest point total in their last 14 games played. The Thunder shot just 36.6% (34-93) from the field and 19% (4-21) from three-point land. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to score 45 points, but that duo only shot 36.9% (17-46) from the field and 30% (3-10) from three-point land. Off such a terrible offensive performance, and now trailing the series 2-1, we expect a big bounce back game from Oklahoma City tonight, especially from Durant and Westbrook.
Oklahoma City has shown a strong pattern of playing extremely well after playing an extremely poor game all season long. In fact, they
|
05-09-11 |
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics |
|
98-90 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
Boston got back into this series with a 97-81 win over Miami in Game 3 on Saturday night. Things did not look good for the Celtics as they trailed at the half, but Boston put together a terrific second half to earn the comeback win. The Celtics played a phenomenal third quarter as they out-scored Miami by 13 points (28-15), and that was where they won the game. Boston shot the ball incredibly well all game long as they hit 50% (37-74) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land. They also hit 14 of their 17 free throw attempts for the all-around perfect offensive game. But after Rajon Rondo suffered a nasty elbow injury in that game (he played with noticeable excruciating pain), we have to question just how effective the Celtic
|
05-08-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179 |
|
88-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
05-08-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks -2 |
|
86-122 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
This series has not gone as many expected. Dallas won both games in Los Angeles to take a 2-0 series lead back home to Dallas for Games 3 and 4. And the Mavericks made a big fourth quarter comeback in Game 3 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Lakers. In fact, Dallas has owned the fourth quarter in this series as they
|
05-07-11 |
Miami Heat +3 v. Boston Celtics |
|
81-97 |
Loss |
-103 |
16 h 26 m |
Show
|
The much anticipated playoff match-up between the Celtics and Heat was hardly a contest in Game 1 or Game 2 as Miami went a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS at home and their 9 and 11 point wins were more dominating than the final scores indicated as the Heat held 19 and 14 point leads in each game, despite the fact Boston shot extremely well from three-point range.
Boston shot 50% (12-for-24) from three-point land in Game 1 and 55% (6-for-11) in Game 2 and still failed to cover both games which shows how much Miami dominated down low. The Celtics also shot 78% (14-for-18) and 77% (17-for-22) from the free throw line in Games 1 & 2, so basically Boston could not shoot any better from three-point range or the charity stripe and still went 0-2 SU/ATS. The reason is because Boston is no longer a Class-A team, while Miami is finally playing up to their preseason championship hype.
The Celtics started the season 41-14 SU (.745), but they fell apart after the senseless trade of Kendrick Perkins to Memphis. Boston finished the regular season on a 9-11 SU (.450) slide (excluding the season finale when both teams rested starters). Boston was fortunate to face an overrated New York squad in Round 1 of the playoffs, but the Celtics 4-0 sweep was misleading. The Knicks should have won Games 1 and 2 in Boston as they held leads in both games with less than 20 seconds left to play. The Celtics needed to hit two clutch shots to win those games, and that is not a good sign considering how bad of a team New York is, especially on the defensive end of the court. Boston also caught a fortunate break when Chauncey Billups missed the final three games of the series with an injury. The Knicks were also playing with a less than 100% Amare Stoudemire, so Boston caught all of the breaks on top of playing an inferior opponent.
None of that will be the case for the Celtics in this series with the Heat, and we certainly saw that in Games 1 & 2. Miami is an elite team that also plays excellent defense. It
|
05-06-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
92-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 40 m |
Show
|
This series did not begin as many expected. Dallas won both games in Los Angeles to take a 2-0 series lead back home to Dallas for Games 3 and 4. The Mavericks did not have a good history of playing well against the Lakers in Los Angeles prior to the last two games so the fact that they won both games is somewhat shocking. The Lakers were in control of Game 1 when they took a 7-point lead into the fourth quarter. But the Mavericks out-scored them 25-16 over the final 12 minutes of the game to win 96-94. And they rode that momentum in a 93-81 win in Game 2 on Wednesday night; Dallas led that game by as many as 15 points so there was nothing phony about their big win.
With the Lakers down 0-2, this is an obvious must-win game for them. Los Angeles couldn
|
05-06-11 |
Chicago Bulls -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
99-82 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
After their shocking 103-95 loss to Atlanta in Game 1, Chicago bounced back with a much better performance in Game 2. The Bulls won 86-73 to even the series as the teams head to Atlanta for Games 3 and 4. Chicago won the last game with their suffocating defense as they held the Hawks to just 73 points on 33.8% (26-77) shooting from the field and 23.1% (3-13) from three-point land. We expected the Bulls to stymie the Hawks in that last game, especially after Atlanta won Game 1 when they shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field and 53.8% (7-13) from three-point land. That performance in the series opener was a fluke, and we just do not see the Hawks coming close to that type of production again, especially since the Bulls have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
Chicago earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after their fantastic 62-20 regular season. The Bulls did not play like that record in the first round, even though they beat the Pacers 4-1. Nor did they play like their record in Game 1, but the Bulls brought their
|
05-04-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180 |
|
73-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
05-04-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 |
|
73-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
05-03-11 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 197.5 |
|
102-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 11 m |
Show
|
This series started off with a high-scoring Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. Memphis beat Oklahoma City 114-101 which smashed the closing total by 20 points. The Grizzlies scored and shot way above their seasonal averages as they hit 49.4% (44-89) from the field on their way to 114 total points. It was just the fourth time the Grizzlies scored more than 110 points in their last 29 games so there
|
05-03-11 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -5 |
|
91-102 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
The much anticipated playoff match-up between the Celtics and Heat was hardly a contest in Game 1. Miami controlled the game from start to finish; the Heat led the game by 19 points at one point and they also held a 15-point lead at halftime. Boston actually shot 50% (12-24) from three-point land and that still wasn
|
05-02-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 |
|
103-95 |
Loss |
-104 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
Both teams went through interesting first round match-ups with their opponents. Atlanta beat Orlando in 6 games while Chicago took care of Indiana in 5 games. The Hawks figured to be in a close battle with the Magic as both teams are rather ordinary clubs, and in a 7-game series, they figured to go back and forth. On the other hand, the Bulls figured to manhandle the Pacers, a team that had a losing record and did not belong in the playoffs. But Chicago took them lightly, and Indiana gave the Bulls a much closer fight than expected. However, we expect this series to go a lot different, especially for the Bulls.
Chicago earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after their fantastic 62-20 regular season. The Bulls did not play like that record in the first round, even though they beat the Pacers 4-1. Chicago won three of those games by 6 points or less before they turned things on in Game 5 and waxed Indiana by 27 points (116-89). That game was a truer reflection of the Bulls
|
05-01-11 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -4.5 |
|
90-99 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
The much anticipated playoff match-up between the Celtics and Heat begins this afternoon. Coming into this season, Boston and Miami were thought to be the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. But at season
|
05-01-11 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 196 |
|
114-101 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
These two teams played four times during the regular season with Memphis winning three of those four games. All four of those games were high-scoring as every game went Over the total with at least 206 total points scored in every game. However, these two teams have different personnel now, especially on the defensive end of the court. Memphis has Shane Battier who matches-up extremely well with Kevin Durant. Oklahoma City has Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed who match-up well with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol inside the paint. Those three key match-ups will dictate this series, and they will also make these games lower scoring than what we saw in the four regular season meetings.
Memphis
|
04-29-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 189 |
|
91-99 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
Memphis and San Antonio have played 9 times this year, and six of those nine games have gone Over the total, including Games 1,4, and 5 of this series. Despite the fact that these teams have played high-scoring games, the oddsmakers have lowered the total 7
|
04-28-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 182 |
|
103-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
Dallas bounced back strong in Game 5 after a pair of losses in Portland tied this series up at 2 apiece. The Mavericks beat the Blazers 93-82 to take a 3-2 series lead back to Portland tonight. This series has been close throughout with a ton of defensive intensity played in all five games. And with Portland on the brink of elimination, and Dallas not wanting this series to go to seven games, this should lead to plenty of defense on both sides of the court. We saw this strong defensive play in Game 1 which totaled just 170 points and also in Game 5 on Monday night which totaled only 175 total points. Those two games are the most important in any series, and since they were extremely low-scoring, we expect tonight
|
04-28-11 |
Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 177.5 |
|
81-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
Prior to their 101-point outburst in Game 5, Orlando scored just 88, 84, and 85 points in the previous three games against Atlanta. The Magic shot a combined 38.7% (89-230) from the field and an abysmal 20.3% (15-74) from three-point land including a dreadful 2-23 from beyond the arc in Game 4. But their offense woke up on Tuesday night as they shot 42.3% (11-26) from three-point land. That is Orlando
|
04-28-11 |
Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks +2 |
|
81-84 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
Atlanta was in complete control of this series going into Game 5. The Hawks held a 3-1 series lead, but Orlando played their best game of the series on their home court to extend this to another game. But with the shift back to Atlanta for Game 6, we can expect the Hawks to bounce back strong off their awful performance on Tuesday night. Atlanta lost that game by 25 points (101-76), a dramatic difference from the three games they won and their 6-point loss (88-82) in Orlando back in Game 2. Prior to losing to the Magic in the last game, the Hawks had won 6 of the previous 8 meetings between the two teams while covering the pointspread in all 8 of those games.
Prior to their 101-point outburst in Game 5, Orlando scored just 88, 84, and 85 points in the previous three games against Atlanta. The Magic shot a combined 38.7% (89-230) from the field and an abysmal 20.3% (15-74) from three-point land including a dreadful 2-23 from beyond the arc in Game 4. Orlando has also missed 40 free throws in the five games which has not helped their cause at all. The Magic just don
|
04-27-11 |
Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 204 |
|
97-100 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 20 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City was looking for the series sweep on Monday night, but they came up 3 points short as Denver salvaged a 104-101 win. With the Nuggets on the brink of elimination, we saw them play a fast, aggressive game. Denver took 83 shots in the game including 19 three
|
04-27-11 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5 |
|
103-110 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
Memphis ran away with Game 4 as they waxed San Antonio by 18 points (104-86). The Grizzlies played a terrific offensive game as they shot 50.6% (41-81) from the field and 41.7% (5-12) from three-point land. They also hit 17 of their 21 free throw attempts, so Memphis played an all-around perfect game. That win gave them a 3-1 series lead as they head back to San Antonio for Game 5 tonight. But we do not expect Memphis to repeat what they did in Game 4, especially on the road against a Class-A team like the Spurs.
San Antonio is an incredible 37-6 on their home court this season with one of those six losses coming to Memphis in Game 1 of this series. The Spurs have won the other three meetings with the Grizzlies on their home court; all three wins coming by 6 points or more. After the Spurs lost the series opener, they were an 8-point favorite in Game 2, up from the 6
|
04-26-11 |
Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 187 |
|
89-116 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
Indiana has given Chicago a tougher fight than expected. The first three games were all close with the Bulls
|