Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-12-12 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Miami at Oklahoma City
The Heat had to go the full route in eliminating the Celtics in 7 games. They had to win the last two contests just to advance. That took major minutes from the key players and this is a quick turnaround for Miami. Oklahoma City on the other hand finished off the Spurs early and beat a far better team than the Heat had. The Oklahoma City series win came as somewhat of a surprise while Miami struggled against what many considered a far lesser team. Not only is this a tough spot for Miami but the line is very cheap in regards to the host. We grade out the Thunder as the better team and they rarely lose at home. Unlike most of the teams in the league they actually have the youth and athleticism to compete with Miami. We expect Oklahoma City to have great success getting down the floor on the Heat, something the aging Celtics were able to take advantage of. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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06-04-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The home teams are on a 12-3 spread run after Boston survived in overtime yesterday. If it wasn't for a poor home performance from the Indiana Pacers the hosts would be even more dominating. The two teams in this series are now a combined 13-0 straight up in the playoffs at home. Off back to back losses we fully expect the Spurs and the best coach in the league to play a very strong game tonight. Blair has dominated Oklahoma City in his career but his minutes have been limited. We expect the big man to play extended productive minutes on Monday. Oklahoma City shot lights out at home the last two games but it will be a different story on the road here. Tony Parker has been completely shut down in a defensive switch for the Thunder but after two games of tape we will likely see a much improved point guard tonight. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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05-19-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -1 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Oklahoma City at Los Angeles
The Lakers used a late surge last night to take victory from the jaws of defeat. They shot an amazing 41 of 42 from the free throw line in doing so. Now on short rest they must duplicate that result in order to even up this series. We're betting that they can't do it. Oklahoma City has shown time and time again that they are a dangerous team on the road. After blowing the game late last night we expect Durant and company to come out with even more focus tonight. In a situation where an outright victory almost assuredly leads to a cover we will back the far superior Oklahoma City team off a rare loss. The Lakers haven't even looked good after victories which tells us they won't be able to hold off the Thunder tonight. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-17-12 | Miami Heat -1.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Miami at Indiana
The Miami Heat are now 1 for 22 from the 3 point line in this series, yet the pairing is tied at one game apiece. The Heat have been out rebounded yet the series is tied. The loss of Bosh will hurt but Miami was such a heavy favorite in this series before the injury that the betting public has made an overreaction. Being a former Clevelander we would love to see LeBron get sent to the sidelines with a Miami series loss, but we just don't think that will happen. The Pacers are playing right now with found money and they haven't been in a pressure situation like this against a quality foe. The Heat have the better playmakers and they get the victory here. We take advantage of an underrated Miami team, something rarely said since the Big 3 signed on. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-06-12 | Miami Heat -8 v. New York Knicks | Top | 87-89 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Miami at New York
Last night Oklahoma City came through for us as the current run of first round sweeps continued. Now a 67% play the last 30 games when a team is looking to pull out the broom in the first round. We continue in that direction today as we back the Heat to eliminate the Knicks. New York has a team of questionable character and the Heat know that having extra rest is huge this time of year. Miami has been here before and the players are well versed in elimination games. The line looks high but it's there for a reason. Look for Miami to win this one by double digits. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-30-12 | New York Knicks +10 v. Miami Heat | Top | 94-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
New York at Miami
The Heat had their way early and often against the Knicks in the opener, but we expect a much more competitive game here. Miami came out with a purpose in game one but not sure they will feel the same motivation here. They are up 1-0 in the series off a dominating performance. In the meantime they have seen Rose go down for Chicago and Boston losing game one and possibly Rondo to a suspension. In the opening game Miami made 33 trips to the line compared to the Knicks 11. The Heat shot 49% from the field while New York managed just 36%. With Miami is a very strong position in the east and with the Knicks needing this victory badly we expect New York to take this one to the wire. PLAY NEW YORK |
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04-21-12 | Golden State Warriors +13 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Golden State at Houston
This is the time of year when teams fighting for playoff seeding become overrated in the betting markets. We saw it yesterday with Memphis, New York and Dallas with only Oklahoma City cashing a ticket by a single point. Today we take advantage of the must win factor once again as we go against the Houston Rockets. Houston has lost six straight games, failing to cover the posted number by a combined 61 1/2 points. They faced the Warriors here just 30 days ago and they were just an eight point favorite. Now with the same scheduling scenario the Rockets are giving five points more. Golden State isn't winning many games as of late but they are covering the number, especially in the road dog role. Now on a 12-3 ATS run catching points on the road. Last night they led wire to wire ATS while catching 13 against the defending champions, now they are getting the same number against a team that has lost six straight games, including four straight on this court. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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04-19-12 | Houston Rockets v. New Orleans Hornets +5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Houston at New Orleans
The Rockets have now failed to cover five straight games, losing to the spread by a combined 50 1/2 points. Now after losing 117-110 on the road last night in Dallas they have been installed as road favorites at New Orleans. The last five games the Rockets have permitted 117, 105, 101, 112 and 103 points, terrible defensive numbers which suggest that Houston has already packed it in with four games to go. New Orleans on the other hand continue to play stellar defense holding the opposition to double digits in 14 or 16 games. Before last night they had permitted just 67, 75 and 85 points the last three games. New Orleans is on a 7-0 ATS run as home dogs with the last six contests all going under. The Hornets will set the pace in this one which means defense rules the contest. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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04-17-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | Top | 112-91 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
San Antonio at LA Lakers
First thought on this contest would be the revenge factor for the Spurs who lost at home to the Lakers 98-84 just six days ago. But playing revenge at this point of the season isn't that easy, especially for two teams that will likely meet in the playoffs. This is the second of three late season match ups for these teams and the Lakers are playing without Kobe Bryant. Greg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he knows that showing a likely playoff opponent his full bag of tricks three times late in the season could come back to haunt him. It's quite possible that San Antonio will either sit or severely limit the minutes of three key players here. After all the Spurs are playing their second of three straight contests. The last and only time they played a three in three this season the Spurs failed to cover at New Orleans in the middle game. A repeat wouldn't surprise. Even if the big three play extended minutes we're not sure the Spurs are the right side. The Lakers have played much better team basketball with Kobe on the sidelines and LA is undefeated on the season in the home dog role, cashing against the Bulls and the Heat. The line is currently San Antonio -3 1/2 and if the news comes out about Popovich resting key players the Lakers could go off as a favorite. We are treating this as a win, win situation as we like the Lakers regardless. PLAY LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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04-12-12 | Detroit Pistons -5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 109-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Detroit at Charlotte
We've had a really good feel for the Detroit Pistons this year going a perfect 11-0 in games in which they are involved in. Offensively Detroit has really struggled as of late but tonight they get to pad their stats against the worst of the worst in the NBA. Off 89 and 75 point outputs we are able to catch the Pistons at a bargain price. Charlotte is now 6-22 ATS on the year when facing a team off a loss. That means when a team plays them with a bad taste in their mouths the Bobcats don't stand a chance. That's exactly what we expect tonight as we find a Charlotte team riding a 13 game losing streak and having lost by double digits in three straight games. The last of those poor outings came against the powerhouses of Cleveland and Washington. Detroit takes out some frustrations tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-10-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Boston at Miami
The Celtics have been playing better ball as of late but they haven't stepped up for the most part when playing superior competition. Despite a 7-2 record as of late they lost to both San Antonio and Chicago. The one game they did beat a quality opponent was just nine days ago when they clobbered this Heat squad 91-72. That defeat was an embarrassment for the Miami players and you know they circled this game on their calendars. Miami is 5-1 SU & ATS this season playing in revenge and the Heat are in revenge both tonight and on Thursday when they face the Bulls. Miami is in a positive scheduling situation as they are playing their fifth straight game at home and third straight with a day of rest. We look for a very focused effort from the host tonight as the Heat make a statement. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-09-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Orlando Magic -8 | Top | 89-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Detroit at Orlando
The Pistons are playing their 4th game in 5 days after taking on Miami last night on the road. Detroit is now 5-15 ATS on the road catching 7 or more points. They have the next two days off before facing Charlotte in a very winnable contest. Orlando is playing with double revenge here after losing to Detroit 102-95 and 89-78 in the only two meetings this season. The seven point loss occurred just last Tuesday. The Magic are rested but they do play Washington tomorrow, but they have already beaten the Wizards three times this season. So Detroit will have their full attention and payback is in order. PLAY ORLANDO |
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04-06-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Toronto Raptors -8 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Cleveland at Toronto
The Cavaliers weren't a very good team coming into the season and now they are just a shell of that squad. They are without their top two points guards because of injuries and trades and the best defender and energy player is likely gone for at least another week. What they have in their place is either aging veterans way past their prime or D League players who shouldn't be on an NBA floor. Cleveland has lost 9 straight games including 8 straight by 9 points or more. The Cavaliers are just counting the days till the next NBA Lottery Show. Toronto is playing with a great deal of pride as this season comes to a close. They won't be tasting the playoffs but the future is much brighter north of the border. The Raptors have won 3 straight games including an impressive 99-78 blowout of the Sixers in Philadelphia. Unlike their opponent tonight, this team can't wait to get on the court. After playing the Cavs the Raptors face Oklahoma City, Indiana, Philadelphia revenge, Boston, Atlanta twice and Miami. They will not overlook the fragile Cavaliers. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-04-12 | New Jersey Nets +8.5 v. Portland Trailblazers | Top | 88-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
New Jersey at Portland
The Nets are playing their best ball of the season cashing four straight and winning 3 of 4 outright. It's been an impressive road trip for New Jersey thus far and tonight they have the ability to end the trip with a winning mark by beating the Blazers. On this trip New Jersey has covered the three games by margins of 5 1/2, 18 1/2 and 4 and the betting public has been slow to react. We want no part of Portland who has lost a coach and two top defensive players and is playing out the string. It's rebuilding time in Portland and the best way to accomplish that goal is to get into the lottery. The Blazers are currently four games out of the playoffs and they have shown no signs of being concerned with postseason play. Tonight they are laying a high number considering that they have only won once in the last ten games by this type of margin. Portland started the year strong at home but are on a current 1-4 spread run as a home favorite, including two outright losses. This is not the team we want to lay a sizable number with in this current Blazer situation. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-31-12 | Louisville v. Kentucky UNDER 137 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 55 h 15 m | Show |
Louisville & Kentucky
The Wildcats have been running the opposition out of the building in this tournament and it makes a great deal of sense. If you have the more talented team your advantage grows with every extra possession. But Louisville and the coaching staff are way too smart to fall into that trap. They know the way to beat Kentucky is to limit opportunities and Louisville's ugly offensive play only helps the cause. This game is being played in The Superdome which provides unique sight lines, therefore producing lower scoring games. With the recent Kentucky contests sailing over the posted total the linemakers have been forced to post a higher line as they expect over action. With the general public not knowing the true value of the total they will in turn bet the over which gives us extra value on playing this one under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-28-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Minnesota at Charlotte
We went with the Timberwolves last night and they faded down the stretch, but this is a game that could very well jump start a winning streak. After taking on the Bobcats, the Timberwolves face Boston, Portland, Sacramento, Golden State and New Orleans. That set of games could reinvigorate a team that's battling back from losing Ricky Rubio, their talented point guard. Many will look at this game and see a rested Bobcats squad facing a team who played last night and traveled. But Charlotte has played with an equal rest or rest advantage in five straight games and they failed to cover the spread in four of those contests. This will be the fourth straight time Charlotte has faced an unrested team and they failed to cover all three of the prior games. In fact, Charlotte is 6-15 ATS on the season playing an unrested foe. We've gone against Charlotte twice this year cashing by a combined 22 points, this one adds to our anti- Charlotte success. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-26-12 | Utah Jazz v. New Jersey Nets -1.5 | Top | 105-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Utah at New Jersey
This line has really been adjusted since the lookahead line of Utah -2 1/2 yesterday. But the truth of the matter is we want no part of the Jazz here even in the underdog role. Utah is playing their 4th game in 5 nights all in different locations. Last night they went to four overtimes with the Hawks before dropping a 139-133 decision. In that game Utah had five players log at least 49 minutes and now they likely have to win outright on the road in order to get the cover. Keep in mind that Utah is just 7-13 ATS on the season in the role of road underdogs. With Utah fighting for the playoffs in the Western Conference we can see them laying down and taking one for the team tonight on the road against an Eastern Conference squad. New Jersey isn't a terrible team, in fact this will mark the sixth of eight games in which they have been favored as of late. They are rested and off a confidence building double digit victory. The key player for the Nets is point guard Deron Williams who came over to the Nets from Utah. The earlier meeting against the Jazz Williams put in a bad performance. Now facing his former team in a terrible scheduling situation we look for the perennial All-Star to carry the Nets on his back. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-24-12 | Florida v. Louisville OVER 131.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Florida & Louisville
Short and sweet analysis on this one. We had the under in the last Louisville game as the contest was a brick fest and the game easily went under the number. The public saw the Spartans completely collapse offensively against this solid Louisville defense. That was a Michigan State team that many felt was heading back to the Final Four. Now the line is very reasonable to take a look at the over in this game because of the over-adjustment and the go against the public line of thinking. Florida has a much better shooting team from long range than anyone the Cardinals have played thus far in the tournament. The Gators are also a team that wants to get out and run, which should provide easier baskets. We take advantage of recent results and look for this game to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-23-12 | Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 86-99 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Boston at Philadelphia
The Celtics have struggled in the second game of a back to back this season with a 4-9 spread mark, but this game may be a bit different. The starters were able to gain a bit of rest yesterday as Milwaukee emptied the bench early as the Bucks are in a three game in three day scenario. It's also a huge payback game for Boston who were crushed right out of the gate 103-71 just 16 days ago in this building. Boston has cashed 4 of 5 lately in the road dog role and they only have Washington on deck on Friday. Philadelphia has lost 4 of their last 5 games with the only win coming against the worst team in the league Charlotte. This is a team that has lost outright 12 of 18 games going back to mid-February. Philadelphia has pounded the weak teams in the league but has struggled against playoff caliber squads. With Boston looking to avenge their worst loss of the season we don't expect the game to be nearly as easy as the last time these two met. PLAY BOSTON |
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03-21-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. San Antonio Spurs -9.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota at San Antonio
Extremely tough spot for the Timberwolves who won last night at Golden State. This is the 6th game of a 7 game road trip and they will be facing a team looking for a bit of payback. San Antonio lost the first two meetings with the Timberwolves by margins of 8 and 10 points at Minnesota. Now they get the T-Wolves at home after having the past three days to prepare. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS on the season with at least two days of rest and they should be in an especially bad mood after losing at Dallas 106-99 the last time they took the court. San Antonio has now cashed six straight games following a loss. This one has special meaning for the host. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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03-21-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 | Top | 91-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City
The Clippers continue to be an overpriced commodity right now as it's clear this team has taken a major step back since the injury to Chauncey Billups. LA is on a 5-12 spread run including losing 6 of 7 as of late. The lone spread victory during the latest streak was against Atlanta, unrested at the tail end of a six game road trip. This is the second of three straight games in three days for the Clippers. They just lost at Indiana and have a trip to New Orleans on deck. We doubt the Thunder will get their best effort. Oklahoma City has been at its best when coming off a loss this year. They are 9-2 ATS following a defeat and they lost last night in Utah. This is also a bit of a revenge game for the Thunder as the Clippers pounded them 112-100 in LA in the only other meeting this season. With a full day off before hosting Minnesota on Friday we can see the Thunder having a chip on its shoulder tonight. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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03-19-12 | Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 105-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia at Charlotte
The Sixers have been excellent against the weaker teams in the league and tonight they look to get back in the win column after losses to Indiana, Miami and Chicago. With a day off before facing the Knicks the Bobcats will have the Sixers full attention. Teams that don't overlook Charlotte this year have been money in the bank and we expect Philadelphia to be fired up for this one. When Charlotte plays a team coming in off a loss the Bobcats are just 5-15 ATS on the season. With Charlotte off a rare win and three days off before facing Milwaukee we can see the host treating this game like the last day of school before Christmas vacation. Lay it with the better team in a must win situation. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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03-18-12 | Detroit Pistons +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
703 Detroit at LA Clippers
The Pistons have not been the most reliable road underdog this year but they have had a very favorable schedule as of late. This is its fourth game on a five game road trip with a full day of rest between each contest. The Pistons have two days off after tonight before facing Denver. Detroit struggled badly earlier in the year but have posted a solid 12-8 straight up mark the last 20 games. We simply cannot trust the Clippers right now who are simply not the same team without Chauncey Billups. Los Angeles is just 6-9 straight up as of late with 8 of those 15 games being played at home. The Clippers are on a 1-7 spread run when installed as home favorites. The offense has been very one-dimensional scoring 95, 87, 96, 85 and 93 points as of late. The Clips are playing its fourth game in five days with three straight road contests in three days following a day of rest after this game. This is a team that doesn't have the depth to deal with this situation. PLAY DETROIT |
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03-17-12 | Colorado v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
528 Colorado & Baylor
The dream finally ends for the Buffaloes after coming out of nowhere to win the PAC 12 Championship and knock UNLV out of the tournament on Thursday. The Rebels had open shots all night long against Colorado yet they couldn't find the bottom of the net. We were not impressed at all with the way Colorado played and if the Rebels were better coached the Buffaloes wouldn't even be playing today. Colorado is likely to be pounded on the boards here as Baylor not only is athletic but they are a very long team. The Bears are also a vastly superior free throw shooting team which is extremely important in a game with this line. Colorado has no shot blocking intimidation factor to keep Baylor away from the hoop and the Bears have the ability to hit from the outside. We expect Colorado to regress here as the better team wins by a margin. PLAY BAYLOR |
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03-16-12 | Long Island v. Michigan State -19.5 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
832 LIU Brooklyn & Michigan State
This is a terrible match-up for Long Island who needs to run to be successful. They averaged 85 points per game in conference play and they want to get out and run against the Spartans. The problem is that Michigan State won't let them run and if they do decide to open it up they own the better players at virtually every position. The Blackbirds have played an extremely easy schedule having played just eight teams ranked in the Top 130 in the nation. They played just two Top 100 teams losing to Old Dominion by 8 and Iona by 16, with both those games being played in November. Michigan State has a defense the Blackbirds have not come close to facing, and it's a team that turns the ball over on a regular basis. Long Island does do a good job of getting easy points at the line but without the Spartans running with them we can't count on many of those opportunities. Michigan State is a much taller team that is coached by the best in the business. If Long Island tries to run and they will, it will only expand the talent level in this contest. Most underdogs would prefer to slow the pace and limit possessions, the Blackbirds can't do that and be successful. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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03-11-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +6 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Memphis at Denver
The scheduling situation in this contest is weighing much more heavily on the line than is justified. The Grizzlies played last night in Phoenix and now must travel into altitude to take on the Nuggets while Denver is rested. But Memphis is a terrific 7-2 ATS this season when playing with less rest than its opponent. They are also 6-3 ATS when playing unrested. The Grizzlies have played the Nuggets twice this year with both games going down to the wire, a 103-102 home win and a 100-97 overtime home victory. Denver is in the midst of a nine game home stand and are currently 2-1 thus far. They played three of the weakest teams in the league in Sacramento, Cleveland and New Orleans. In those three home games the Nuggets outscored the opposition 328-313, winning by an average of five points per game. Denver hasn't been an intimidating venue for visitors this year with outright home losses to the likes of New Orleans, Utah, Golden State and Cleveland pointing that out. This line is too high and we step in with a quality team catching points. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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03-10-12 | NC State +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
521 NC State and North Carolina
The Wolf Pack hasn't produced a strong home court advantage this year but they have played well away from home. Just five losses away from home this year with just one coming by more than today's spread. Losses to Vanderbilt by 7, Stanford by 4, Duke by 5 and Clemson by 3 in overtime. The only bad loss was a 19 point defeat to these Tar Heels. In fact, the in-state rival dominated the Wolf Pack in two meetings this year. The victory yesterday over Virginia likely took the Wolf Pack off the bubble, but a win over arch rival North Carolina would be the icing on the cake. Roy Williams has never fared well in the ACC Tournament since coming to North Carolina. He is well aware that by playing three games in three days against the best of the conference is not the best way to prepare his team for its ultimate goal, winning the National Championship. A victory here would likely not be the best outcome for his team in the long run, especially if they will be facing Duke in the championship game. The two games with the Blue Devils were very intense. An even if the team wants to continue on in the tourney do they have the motivation to win by a margin against a team that has more motivation? PLAY NC STATE |
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03-08-12 | Wyoming +9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 48-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
767 Wyoming at UNLV
The home court edge goes to the Rebels who get to play this tournament at the Thomas & Mack. The longer they advance in this tourney the better their advantage. Once teams are eliminated their fans often sell their tickets to brokers, scalpers and locals as the visitors take in more of what Las Vegas has to offer. But that advantage in the later rounds is a detriment early on as every other team in this league wants to see the Rebels lose on its home court. Therefore the home court edge will be minimal at best for this first round of action. This is the third time these two teams have met each other over the last five weeks. Both teams won and covered at home with the Wyoming win going to overtime. But even in a revenge victory off a terrible loss at Colorado State the Rebels were only able to win by 11 over the Cowboys. That game occurred on Saturday so now it's the Cowboys who have revenge. Despite a 20-10 record Wyoming knows the only way they play in the Big Dance is winning this tournament, and they are fully capable. The Cowboys beat UNLV and Colorado State, two of the top four teams in this league. They also took San Diego State to overtime in an earlier defeat. UNLV on the other hand already knows they are going dancing regardless of the outcome to this tournament. It's rare a team that has lost 7 of 11 games is this big of a favorite over a team they split with in regular season play. We expect the Rebels to win but it won't be easy. PLAY WYOMING |
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03-08-12 | Oklahoma State v. Missouri -11.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
734 Oklahoma State at Missouri
The Cowboys are extremely short handed right now and they beat Texas Tech basically with five players getting 30 or more minutes of action. Now they must face the pressure tactics of a rested and more talented Missouri squad. The Tigers have split the season series with Oklahoma State so they won't take them for granted here. In the earlier loss to the Cowboys Oklahoma State shot a whopping 60% from the floor. Yesterday's Oklahoma State win was the first time the Cowboys beat a Big 12 opponent this year when not playing at home. We look for their luck to run out tonight as the Tigers take advantage of the short handed Cowboys. PLAY MISSOURI |
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03-07-12 | New York Knicks v. San Antonio Spurs -7 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
New York at San Antonio
Reality is starting to set in for the Knicks who have dropped 3 of 4 games. Linsanity in subsiding and it's back to typical underachievement in New York. The team is having a hard time meshing the individual talent and it may take some time before all the pieces fit. New York is in the midst of a four game road trip and it already lost to Boston and Dallas, two teams playing uneven ball as of late. The Knicks toughest test is tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs lost last time out while hosting Denver. In fact, San Antonio is in the middle of a seven game home stand and it has a 1-2 record through the first three games. With two days off to prepare and catching the Knicks unrested we feel this is a great spot for the Spurs. San Antonio is 7-4 ATS this season off an outright loss and 6-1 in that role as of late. Rested, playing at home, and off a loss put us squarely on the better coached team. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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03-05-12 | Los Angeles Clippers +3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
LA Clippers at Minnesota
The Clippers took the Rockets to overtime yesterday but in our opinion the betting markets have overreacted. Sure it's the Clippers fourth game in five days but this is a team that has performed well with little to no rest. LA is 6-3 ATS unrested and 4-3 ATS on the year with less rest than its opponent. The Clippers are the better team and they are playing this game with double revenge having lost to the T-Wolves by margins of 12 and 3 already this season. While many will focus on the Clippers overtime win yesterday they will overlook the fact that Minnesota playing its fifth game in seven days itself. Minnesota is just 3-9 ATS in the role of home favorite. Tonight we get the better team in revenge mode as an underdog, a rare but lethal combination. PLAY LA CLIPPERS |
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03-03-12 | Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Hornets +5.5 | Top | 102-84 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Indiana at New Orleans
The Pacers are riding a five game winning streak but the victories were against these Hornets in overtime, the Nets, Warriors and Bobcats twice. Before this weak schedule of opponents they had dropped five straight contests. Indiana is just 3-5 ATS in the role of road favorites, and they face Chicago, Atlanta, Miami and Orlando, all possible playoff opponents after this matchup. The Hornets are getting healthier and it's paying off on the scoreboard. New Orleans has won 5 of 9 games including cashing eight of those contests. That includes straight up wins over the likes of Dallas and New York. The Pacers have the scheduling edge as they have had three days off while the Hornets played last night here against Dallas. But Indiana is just 2-6 ATS on the season with an edge in rest while New Orleans is 4-3 ATS at a rest disadvantage. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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03-01-12 | New Mexico State +3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
735 New Mexico State at Nevada
The last time these two tangled the Wolf Pack won 68-60 in Las Cruces. In that game the Aggies went to the free throw line 15 more times and they won the rebounding battle by 15, yet they lost on their own home court. The reason? Nevada shot 57% from the field including 41% from behind the arc. New Mexico State has won 2 of the last 4 visits to Reno in straight up fashion and they are looking to avenge one of only three losses in conference play. The only other revenging contest they faced this season resulted in a 42 point blowout of Hawaii. Nevada has a two game lead in the conference with two games to go, but there is still hope that New Mexico State can grab a share of that crown. Despite having two more losses in the WAC the Aggies actually own a higher conference point differential than the Wolf Pack, plus 10.4 to plus 7.5. We expected this game to open in the pick 'em range so catching this many points is an added benefit. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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02-29-12 | Buffalo v. Akron -7 | Top | 74-70 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
540 Buffalo at Akron
As if often the case the Zips cashed in on its 20th victory only to have a letdown the following game in an 85-61 blowout loss to Ohio U. Off that embarrassment and with earlier 82-70 revenge against Buffalo, we look for a strong effort out of the host. Akron has won 6 of the last 7 home meetings in this series and it has put up the more impressive season in the MAC. The Zips have outscored league foes by about four points more per game than the Bulls, with the most efficient offense in the conference. Buffalo has lost to every Top 100 ranked team it has played since December with the lone exception being the home win over Akron. Buffalo has dropped 3 of its last 4 games and has only two somewhat quality wins away from home all season. The number is cheap enough for us to look for home revenge from the Zips. Akron is 14-7 ATS at home with same season revenge and this is the only time all season the Zips have played a revenge game of any kind. PLAY AKRON |
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02-28-12 | Central Florida v. Memphis U -11 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
738 Central Florida at Memphis
The Golden Knights have had a fine season but they have yet to step up on the road against a Top 100 squad, with losses at Florida State, Tulsa, Marshall and Southern Miss. They also lost at a neutral site to Harvard in non-conference play. On Saturday they cashed in their 20th victory of the season and that's a negative for teams the next time out. Central Florida is an excellent offensive rebounding team but some of that success has to be attributed to their poor overall shooting ability. Memphis is looking to avenge an earlier 68-67 loss in Orlando. The Tigers are an outstanding 7-2 ATS with same season revenge. That earlier defeat broke a seven game winning streak in this series as the Tigers had won every other meeting since the two joined forces in Conference USA. In 3 of the 4 home contests Memphis won by 16 points or more. We look for a similar margin here as the Tigers start to assert themselves for their annual late season run. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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02-25-12 | Murray State v. Tennessee Tech +4 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
694 Murray State at Tennessee Tech
Murray State just played its two biggest games of the season, a Bracket Buster showdown win over St Mary's and its lone revenge game of the year against Tennessee State. The conference tournament is up next for the Racers and it already beat Tennessee Tech at home 82-74. Murray State has won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and its likely looking forward to the conference tournament. The Golden Eagles have the most efficient offense in the conference and it can score just as well as the Racers. Tennessee Tech has the better assist to turnover ratio and they can match Murray State on the boards. In the earlier meeting the Golden Eagles held the Racers to just 38% from the field and dominated on the glass. The problem was three players fouled out which weakened the bench. Riding wins in 5 of 7 games as of late we can see a raucous crowd giving the host that extra boost in a game we expect to go down to the wire. PLAY TENNESSEE TECH |
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02-22-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +6 | Top | 102-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Indiana at Charlotte
Horrendous spot here for the Pacers who are off a 117-108 home overtime win over New Orleans last night. That was the third straight home game for Indiana with a quick trip to Charlotte tonight before the All-Star break. The Pacers have already beat the Bobcats by 22 and 35 points, the later coming just three days ago. This is also the third game in four days for Indiana. A team that has dropped four straight in the road favorite role including pointspread losses by 13 and 10 1/2 the only two times they were unrested road favorites. Indiana players are already thinking about the break after having its way over the Bobcats in the first two meetings. Charlotte has played much better ball when healthy and they well remember that 35 point embarrassment Sunday in Indiana. The Bobcats have had the last two days off so they are fresh for the rematch. NBA teams with a two days or more rest advantage have been solid this season, and the Bobcats are a perfect 2-0 ATS in that situation with covers by 6 1/2 and 4 points. An outright upset here wouldn't be a surprise. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-21-12 | New Mexico v. Colorado St +6 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
New Mexico at Colorado State
The Lobos are off its two biggest wins of the season, beating San Diego State on the road and avenging an embarrassing loss at UNLV with a big second half at The Pit. Now they go on the road to face a Colorado State team they beat by 33 points earlier in the season. To make matters worse, the last three road games for the Lobos resulted in double digit victories. The fans stormed the court after the victory over the Rebels and we can't find any reason to see New Mexico motivated here. The victory over UNLV virtually clinched the league championship and the Lobos are riding high right now. Colorado State only lost once all season on this court and that was way back in November against Southern Miss. Now sitting firmly on the bubble come postseason time the Rams hold their future in their own hands. They play in succession New Mexico, San Diego State and UNLV, three teams heading to the Big Dance. If they can knock off two of those squads they set themselves up for a possible invite themselves, a clean sweep and the Rams are in. This game sets the stage for Colorado State and they want nothing better than to put that embarrassment in Albuquerque behind them. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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02-20-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets -3 | Top | 93-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
512 Memphis at Houston
The Grizzlies have won six of its last seven games but have they really been that impressive? Only three of those victories covered the number and all but one of those games were at home. The last three contests went to the wire with 5, 1 and 1 point victories over New Jersey, Denver and Golden State. Houston lost at home last night against Utah but they are an excellent 8-3 ATS this season playing unrested. They lost both meetings with Memphis this year so it's a very important statement game for the host. Houston is in the midst of a six game home stand winning two of the first three contests including a victory over Oklahoma City. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS off a straight up loss this season and despite being the team that played last night both teams are in a three games in four day stretch. The Rockets gain its revenge tonight. PLAY HOUSTON |
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02-19-12 | Boston Celtics v. Detroit Pistons +5.5 | Top | 81-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Boston at Detroit
The Celtics continue to be priced as if they are contenders in the east. Contending teams bounce back from losses yet the Celtics are 4-9 ATS on the season after a defeat. They have lost 4 of 5 games with the lone win coming at home over Chicago without Rose. Yesterday New Jersey pounded the Bulls without Rose in Chicago. Boston has covered just twice all season in the road favorite role, both times against Washington, a team known to quit. That can't be said of today's opponent as Detroit gives its all every time out. Boston has a nationally televised game tomorrow at Dallas, the defending champs. Off Chicago and with Dallas on deck this sandwich spot isn't the best for Boston, despite playing with revenge from a 98-88 home loss on Wednesday to the Pistons. Detroit has won 6 of its last 8 games and cashed 7 of 8. The Pistons have cashed 6 straight in the home dog role and 6 straight overall catching points. Detroit is a young team that has the horses to beat down this aging Boston squad. With no lookahead, this is the biggest game on the Detroit schedule till they host the Lakers on March 6th. The game means much more to the host. PLAY DETROIT |
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02-15-12 | Air Force +12 v. Wyoming | Top | 58-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
567 Air Force at Wyoming
This has been a tightly contested series in recent years with the Falcons winning 11 of the last 20 meetings. Wyoming won earlier this year at Air Force 64-53 but we're not so sure they should be a prohibitive favorite in the rematch. Air Force recently made a coaching change in mid-season which is not typical, especially considering they had a sizable buyout clause. The truth of the matter was the former coach was not liked by his players and there was a backlash brewing. Since the firing Air Force lost their only contest against Boise State who had revenge for an earlier loss to the Falcons. Wyoming could very well take Air Force for granted here. They recently upset ranked UNLV at home and they played New Mexico tooth and nail in The Pit. On Saturday they face off against a very good Colorado State team. The Cowboys own just one conference win by more than this number and with both teams preferring a slow pace this tariff looks awfully high. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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02-14-12 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Miami at Indiana
The Heat are playing their third game in three days as they face their fifth of six teams on the road. Even with a covering victory last night Miami is just 2-4 ATS unrested on the road. Miami has won their last three games by margins of 18, 20 and 17 points so they are even more overrated than usual on Tuesday. Keep in mind this is a team without a lot of depth and this will be their sixth game in eight days, each contest in a different city. Indiana has had this game circled since a 118-83 blowout loss in Miami the last time these two tangled. The Pacers have had the last two days off after losing three straight games to Atlanta, Denver and Memphis. Indiana has not been installed as a home dog all season and they are by far the fresher and more motivated squad here. PLAY INDIANA |
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02-13-12 | Utah Jazz v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Utah at New Orleans
The Jazz broke a three game losing streak last night at Memphis with a 98-88 victory. They have lost 5 of the last 7 games and they have yet to be in the role of road favorite this season. This is the second of three straight games for Utah who plays tomorrow at Oklahoma City. They are looking for quick revenge as they lost to the Thunder at home on Friday. The last time these two tangled the Jazz survived a 94-90 home game laying 6 1/2 points to New Orleans. The Hornets need this game badly. They are riding an eight game losing streak and they go on the road for six straight games after this contest. While Utah played last night in Memphis the Hornets are rested. They haven't played since Friday night in this building against Portland. It's the first time all season New Orleans has had more than a single day off before a game. In the NBA this season teams with 2 or more days off than their opponent are 20-13 ATS, good for 61% winners. Tonight we back the Hornets rested in a must win situation. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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02-10-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Dallas at Minnesota
Many will look at this as a revenge game for the Mavericks who have lost the first two meetings of the season to the Timberwolves by margins of 17 and 15 points. While that is the case, we feel that Dallas has major match-up problems with Minnesota. Keep in mind that in this season of many games in fewer days the Mavericks were rested in both those prior contests. Dallas had lost three straight games heading into Denver on Wednesday and they beat the Nuggets 105-95. But all is not right for the Mavs as they had three days to prepare for a Denver team reeling from injuries right now. The Nuggets have the best depth in the league but without key components they are a lottery team. Dallas caught Denver at the right time as the Nuggets have dropped 7 of their last 8 games. Minnesota has cashed 5 of 6 games this season in the home dog role and tonight Kevin Love returns to the lineup. The Mavericks have no answer for Love who is back from a two game suspension. Minnesota has won 9 of their last 15 games while Dallas has won 8 of their last 15 contests. Because of public perception the wrong team is favored here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-08-12 | Northern Iowa +10 v. Wichita State | Top | 57-82 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
587 Northern Iowa at Wichita State
The Panthers are coming in off a confidence building win over Creighton as they look to avenge an early home loss to the Shockers. Wichita State meanwhile has a first place showdown on deck against Creighton, knowing they have beaten Northern Iowa the last two meetings on the road. Now home in a building in which they have won 12 of 13 games this season, Wichita State may look past the Panthers as they prepare for a Creighton team that beat them outright in this building last year. The Blue Jays were one of only two teams to beat the Shockers this season in conference play. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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02-08-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors +2.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Milwaukee at Toronto
The Bucks hosted the Phoenix Suns last night on the birthday of Steve Nash, now they travel to his country of origin as they look for a rare road victory. Milwaukee has been installed as road favorites three times this season, only to lose all three games in straight up fashion. That includes contests against Detroit, Sacramento and Charlotte. The Bucks own just three road wins all year and now they are expected to win by a margin in the second of a back to back situation. Thus far this year the Bucks have played twice on the road unrested against a rested foe. They failed to cover those games by margins of 8 1/2 and 16 1/2 points losing outright by 16 and 26 points. Milwaukee doesn't have the depth to be favored in this contest. Toronto has played 17 road games this year, the most in the league. They had very little time to practice with a full team before the season, but now they start a seven game home stand and we expect major improvement from the Raptors during this stretch. Toronto has been home dogs four times this year to the likes of the Hawks, Blazers, and Pacers twice. Those are three solid playoff type opponents. Milwaukee without their best player, not so much. PLAY TORONTO |
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02-07-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics UNDER 177 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Charlotte at Boston
The Bobcats are by far the worst team in the league right now as they are decimated by injuries and they lack competitive talent. Charlotte has dropped 17 of 18 games and the coaching staff knows the only way to be competitive is to slow down the game. By milking the clock the Bobcats can remain somewhat competitive, especially on the road where 9 of the last 10 games have stayed under the posted total. Boston has won 8 of 9 games with the only loss coming by a single point. There is little doubt from the Celtic brass that they will win this game, and with a huge game on deck against the hated LA Lakers we can see Boston just trying to get out of this game healthy. Overall 9 of 11 Boston home games have stayed under the posted total with the two overs coming by just 4 1/2 and 2 1/2 points. In home games where both teams are rested 8 of 9 occurrences have gone under. We look for a slow paced low scoring game tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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02-06-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Phoenix at Atlanta
The Suns are an aging team that doesn't push the pace as in previous seasons. That's especially true when playing on the road. In the road underdog role 9 of 12 games have stayed under the posted total. That mark improves to 8 of 10 when Phoenix is rested. This total is currently sitting in the 188 range which is a bit high considering the Sun's pace against an Eastern Conference squad. Overall 7 of the last 10 Phoenix games have stayed under this posted total while the Hawks have gone under this number to the tune of 7-2-1 the last ten games. Atlanta is off back to back home losses allowing 98 and 96 points in the process. We can see the Hawks bringing a strong defense tonight. Overall 7 of 10 Atlanta home games have stayed under this posted number. This line suggests the Suns will push the pace but we've seen no reason for that to occur. PLAY UNDER |
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02-04-12 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +4 | Top | 58-52 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
562 Ohio State at Wisconsin
We were really expecting this line to come out much lower as we expected a line of Ohio State -1 here. Now that it has climbed all the way to -4 we will step in and take the home dog on an extremely tough home court. Points are more important the lower the total and this game is currently lined at 116. Wisconsin has beaten five straight Top 5 opponents at home and they have a defense than can stifle this Ohio State squad. They made a very good UNLV team look bad on this court. This game is for first place in the Big 10 Conference and the linesmaker is telling you that the Buckeyes are head and shoulders the best team in this league. While we respect that decision we disagree, as this line shows a huge disparity in talent that we don't agree with. We will back the best defensive team in the country playing on their own home floor. Ohio State has lost to Wisconsin nine straight times here, we see that number increasing today. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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02-03-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons +4.5 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Milwaukee at Detroit
Great spot to go against the Bucks here as they are off a big come from behind victory over Miami. In the last three games they not only beat the Heat, but also the LA Lakers and these very same Pistons. In fact, they have already beaten Detroit twice this year so they very well could overlook Detroit here. Milwaukee has Chicago revenge on deck for a seven point loss a week ago, and they have already failed both times this year when installed as road favorites. Detroit has won three straight games when installed as home underdogs as it's clear they are a much better pointspread team in this building. The Pistons enter this game on a seven game losing streak but they can gain some victories this week as the schedule becomes much easier. Contests against the Bucks, Hornets, Nets twice and Wizards could put Detroit in a positive state of mind after a very tough early start to the season. We are a perfect 5-0 this year on plays involving the Detroit Pistons, let's continue that success. PLAY DETROIT |
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02-01-12 | Towson +13.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 49-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
749 Towson State at Hofstra
Now that the Tigers have snapped their extremely long losing streak we will back them in a positive momentum spot here against a team not worthy of laying this type of number. When you have as long a losing streak as Towson State had the pressure continues to build, for Towson and their opponents. The Tiger's pressure is obvious, but no opponent wants to be the one to lose to a team on that type of streak. Which is why you often see teams in this situation carry over that success in the following game. Hofstra for instance knows they won't make the national news now if they happen to lose this game. That said, the Pride has lost 9 of their last 10 games and they just want a victory. They don't care to win by a margin, just to win the game outright. That is the goal, get a victory. The pressure is on the host while the Tigers are playing with renewed confidence. We take the points in what should be a highly contested affair. PLAY TOWSON STATE |
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01-31-12 | Southern Illinois v. Northern Iowa -12.5 | Top | 49-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
524 Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa
The Salukis are one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country ranking 332nd, which isn't a good sign on the road against a superior foe. You either have to play stellar defense or be able to shoot from the outside to be a live underdog, and Southern Illinois simply hasn't shown those abilities. Northern Iowa returns home after losing at Missouri State and Indiana State and they face Creighton and Wichita State on deck. This is a must win game for the host who beat the Salukis by 20 in this building a season ago. We expect a similar outcome here as the Panthers are the more disciplined team with the stronger roster. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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01-29-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 88-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Cleveland at Boston
Nice spot here for the younger Cavaliers who have shown their road ability at Indiana, Minnesota, Phoenix and the LA Lakers. This is a team without a great amount of talent but they continue to put forth a full effort throughout the contest, something not always said about today's opponent. Boston as with many aging teams has a hard time keeping the same lineup on the court. It's even more exasperated this season with the condensed schedule. That's why even in getting key cogs back you can't expect this team to come together in one fell swoop. Boston is off three high intensity games against playoff caliber rivals, Orlando twice and Indiana. The Celtics and Magic traditionally do battle and Boston won both those meetings despite being short handed. They then beat an up and coming Pacers squad who had taken the first two meetings of the season against them. Now they get to face the lowly Cavaliers in a home and home situation. Boston plays to the level of competition and we want no part of this team laying points. An outright upset wouldn't surprise. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-28-12 | Middle Tenn. St. +8 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
575 Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt
In-State contest that means more to the visitor who hails from the smaller Sun Belt Conference. Blue Raiders are a veteran crew with the top three scorers being upperclassmen. They have shown well when stepping up in class and are projected to be a dangerous team come Big Dance time. Vanderbilt came into the season highly thought of but they struggled out of the gate. The Commodores have picked up the pace as of late but not sure they are the better team here. The SEC as a whole has been a disappointment this year and Vanderbilt hasn't been overly impressive out of conference. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE |
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01-25-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Portland at Golden State
The Blazers are playing their third straight game in three days and their fifth contest in the last six days. They are off a hard earned 97-84 victory over possible playoff rival Memphis and they have a 25 point revenge match-up with Phoenix on deck. This building has been a house of horrors for Portland as they have lost 5 of the last 6 meetings over the past three seasons, failing to cover every contest. With Golden State home and rested off a one point loss to the Grizzlies, we can see the Blazers packing this one in early. Golden State is in the middle of a six game home stand and they are currently off to an 0-2 start. After tonight they face Oklahoma City on Friday. If there is such a thing as a must win game, this is it for the Warriors. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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01-25-12 | Notre Dame v. Seton Hall -7 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
804 Notre Dame at Seton Hall
The Irish are fresh off their stunning upset victory over previously unbeaten and top ranked Syracuse. They have a quick turnaround revenge game on deck against Connecticut. In the meantime they face a Pirates team they have beaten the last two meetings by double digits. Despite the positive press these two teams are not even close, talent or schedule wise. Seton Hall is a much better team that has played a much tougher schedule thus far. They have a current RPI of 7 while the Irish sit at 98. The Pirates have a big edge on the boards and they will completely shut down the Irish from beyond the arc. Off back to back losses to Villanova and South Florida, the host is ready to put a hurting on this unsuspecting foe. PLAY SETON HALL |
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01-24-12 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 192.5 | Top | 111-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
New York at Charlotte
The Knicks are a bad defensive team but the offense is playing without any type of rhythm this season. New York is known as an offensive team yet they have gone under the total in regulation play 9 of the last 10 games. The lone over was by just 2 points. When playing on the road Knick games are a perfect 6-0 to the under by a combined 44 points. Overall 6 of the last 9 New York games have stayed under this current total in regulation. This is the third time in this young season that these two clubs have tangled. They know what the other is trying to do, and the players are well informed as to what the go-to moves are of the player they are guarding. Last time out in New York the game played to just 178 points and the Knicks tend to push the pace more in front of their home fans. With Charlotte on a 1-10 straight up run they know the way to beat these Knicks is in a half-court game. Overall 8 of the last 11 Bobcats games have played under this posted total. We look for another low scoring affair here. PLAY UNDER |
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01-23-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 187 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Detroit at Oklahoma City
The Pistons know they can't compete on the road against this type of competition. Therefore they need to slow the pace in order to shorten the game. Overall 7 of 8 road games have stayed under the number for Detroit and against elite teams away from home Detroit played Chicago 18 points under the total. Only three Pistons games this year have surpassed this posted line. Oklahoma City is in the midst of playing an extremely easy schedule. New Orleans, New York, Boston, Washington, New Jersey, Detroit, New Orleans and Golden State. They are off 6 of 7 games in which they won by 9 points or more, they have no reason to push the pace here. The Thunder have gone under this posted total in 3 of their last 5 games. PLAY UNDER |
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01-22-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Indiana at LA Lakers
Nobody in the league has played an easier road schedule than the Indiana Pacers. Toronto twice, Detroit, New Jersey, Boston, Sacramento and Golden State. They played two quality opponents on the road and lost by 35 at Miami and 10 at Philadelphia. This is the third straight game on the west coast after splitting in Sacramento and Golden State. The Pacers then return home for a single game hosting Orlando before heading back on the road once again for another three game trip. After this non-conference affair Indiana faces Orlando twice, Chicago and Boston, three teams they will be battling for an Eastern Conference playoff spot. The Lakers have lost 3 of their last 4 contests, all on the road. In those games they scored 80, 87 and 73 points. This is a veteran team lead by the most competitive player in the NBA. The team had yesterday off and doesn't play against until Wednesday against the crosstown rival Clippers. This game is much more important to the host and they come into this game in a very foul mood. The last thing they want to do is go into that Clipper game off another bad performance. We look for a supreme effort here from the host. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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01-21-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets UNDER 192 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs are an aging team with a key offensive ingredient out of the lineup. They are playing their 4th game in 5 days off a straight up home loss to Sacramento yesterday. San Antonio has dictated playing time based on the schedule thus far this season as coach Popovich wants to rest the legs of his tired players in anticipation of the playoffs. When the Spurs have played unrested this season they have gone under the posted total in 4 of 5 games. We expect San Antonio to try to slow down the pace here and we feel the Rockets will oblige. The Rockets are 1-7 O/U this season when playing an unrested team, seven straight times going under in this scenario. They are playing their 3rd game in 4 days so they will be very willing to slow the pace just like the visitor. The last time Houston played was Thursday and they had to go to overtime against New Orleans. As a home favorite Houston has gone under the posted total all four games and they are now 0-7 O/U at home this season. PLAY UNDER |
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01-20-12 | Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Memphis at Detroit
The Grizzlies are starting to come together after terrible injuries to start the season to key players in the rotation. Players are now starting to fill their roles and the improvement is starting to show on the scoreboard. Memphis has won four straight games including wins over the Bulls and Knicks. After holding on for a victory Wednesday at New Orleans this young team takes on what could be considered the weakest team in the league. As an example of just how bad this Pistons team is look no further than when they play a rested squad. Detroit is 1-7 ATS vs a rested team with the lone cover coming by 1/2 point. They have yet to beat a rested team straight up with the closest margin of victory being 8 points. This is a bad team that hasn't surpassed 98 points in any game. This is a very cheap line for the visitor. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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01-18-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 178.5 | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis at New Orleans
These two just met on Saturday when the Grizzlies pounded the Hornets 108-99, easily surpassing the posted total of 175. But Memphis pushes the pace at home as witnessed by their 6-1 trend to the overs in home games. On the road Memphis has stayed under the posted total in all five contests, by margins of 11, 6, 20 1/2, 19 1/2 and 16 points. New Orleans isn't a dynamic offensive team, they need to win with defense. Which is why 5 of 7 home games have stayed under the posted total including four straight. The 108 points they allowed on Saturday to the Grizzlies was by far the most points they have permitted all season. We look for New Orleans to set the pace here as this game stays well below the posted total. When the Hornets and their opponent are both rested the under has come in 4 of 5 contests. PLAY UNDER |
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01-17-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Houston Rockets UNDER 191 | Top | 80-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Detroit at Houston
Pistons have been road underdogs six times this season with 5 of 6 staying under the posted total. In addition 5 of their 6 road games overall have stayed under this posted number of 191 1/2 as of this writing. Those scores were 170, 181, 169, 160 and 179. Detroit just doesn't have the offensive firepower to trade points, especially in the underdog role. Overall 12 of 17 games as underdogs have gone under. Houston has stayed under the posted total in all five of their home games, by margins of 7 1/2, 13 1/2, 8 1/2, 8 and 2 points in regulation. Off a 220 point shootout yesterday at Washington we look for the Houston defense to keep this number down on Tuesday. In six games in which the Rockets played unrested 5 of the 6 contests stayed under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-14-12 | Air Force +10 v. Boise State | Top | 74-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
625 Air Force at Boise State
We think we have a sizable advantage in the line here with an altitude team that won't be at a disadvantage playing in Boise. Colorado Springs is a high altitude city so the Falcons are well versed in knowing how to prepare in these types of venues. Look no further than the last two times they traveled to New Mexico to take on the Lobos. Last year as a 13 point dog they lost a close 66-61 contest, in the previous season catching 21 they lost by only 3 in a 59-56 defeat. While the Falcons have only played in two true road games this season they took the money at both Drake and Gonzaga, cashing by a combined 11 points. Boise State will have a large home court advantage this year in most of their games against Mountain West opponents in their first year in the conference, but this isn't one of those games. The Air Force style of play is tough to defend when you don't see it very often, so the visitor has an added advantage. Just check out how the Falcons have done out of conference vs inside conference action. The line is giving Boise a substantial edge for this court, but keep in mind they were a combined 9-17 ATS the last two years in Taco Bell Arena coming into this season. We look for this game to go down to the wire. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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01-04-12 | Xavier -2.5 v. La Salle | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
741 Xavier at LaSalle
Now that the Musketeers are back to normal strength after the suspensions we look for a coming out party for the vastly more talented team. After playing three games shorthanded in Hawaii it was clear they would struggle their first game back on the mainland against Gonzaga. Now that they have had a game to recover from the trip we look for a strong effort on Wednesday. Xavier beat LaSalle by 38 last year and won by six the last time they played in this building two years ago. LaSalle has added some defense this season at the cost of a high intensity offensive game. But they have played virtually nobody in non-conference action coming off games against Hartford, Boston U, Central Connecticut State, Delaware, Army and Towson. LaSalle entered the season 3-14 ATS the last four seasons as home dogs. PLAY XAVIER |
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01-03-12 | Cornell +8.5 v. Maryland Terrapins | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
557 Cornell at Maryland
The Big Red enter this game having dropped three straight as they play their fifth straight game on the road. They have been battle tested after playing at St Bonaventure, Illinois, Penn state and Bucknell. The last three being spread covering losses by 4, 7 and 3 points. With 4 returning starters the Big Red have a history of cashing in the road dog role. Maryland enters on a six game winning streak but they faced a schedule of weak competition. Samford, Albany, Radford, Florida International and Mt St Mary's. The only quality win on their schedule was over Notre Dame. Maryland was 3-7 ATS in the home favorite role last year and they have yet to impress us. Look for this game to go down to the wire. PLAY CORNELL |
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12-28-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -4 | Top | 90-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
714 LA Clippers at San Antonio
The Clippers have had a very advantageous schedule this season. They played their two exhibition games against the Lakers with a new coach and system. They opened up regular season play with Golden State, a team with a coach who has never been in that position at any level. Now they must face a veteran team with one of the greatest coaches in NBA history. Sure the Clippers are an improved club but they are simply not going to gel overnight. Look how long it took the Heat to come together last season. The Clippers are a public team right now and the Spurs are judged as an old club by public perception. San Antonio has brought youth to the team in key positions which will help them survive this rough schedule. But that won't really come into affect for another week or so as they start the season with an easy group of games. The Spurs have been together for years and they are a healthy bunch to start the season. This team is under the radar right now and this line is a bargain. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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12-27-11 | Pittsburgh -1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
543 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
Big game for the Panthers who were upset by Wagner at home in their prior game. Over the last 10 years Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS on the road after a straight up defeat. They also have revenge against the Irish as they lost 56-51 last year as a double digit home favorite. The Panthers are a perfect 2-0 ATS in true road games this year with wins at Penn by 20 and Tennessee by 5. The Irish are off to a sluggish start this season. They have failed to show anything when stepping up in class losing to the likes of Indiana by 11, Gonzaga by 20, Georgia by 4 and Missouri by 29. They even lost to Maryland by 7 in a major rebuilding year for the Terrapins. Pittsburgh has the far better talent and they will be the better motivated team here. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-26-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 82-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Memphis at San Antonio
Big revenge game here for the Spurs who carried the best record in the west into their first round matchup with the Grizzlies. Memphis upset San Antonio in the playoffs but the drafting of Leonard from San Diego State looks to be the right player to slow down this talented Memphis offense. The home teams won every regular season battle between these two last year and we expect San Antonio to come out of the gate on a mission this year. The Spurs have tomorrow off before taking on the Clippers so player minutes won't be compromised. Teams who make a giant leap in a season tend to regress the following year, Memphis could be a bit overrated to start the season. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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12-20-11 | Arkansas-Little Rock +14 v. Illinois State | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
559 Arkansas Little Rock at Illinois State
Trojans have fared pretty well on the road this year and are off a competitive 71-68 loss at Louisiana Tech. They beat Illinois State last year at home 63-54 and they are once again playing quality defense under Steve Shields. They do have a conference game on deck but it's not until the 29th so there is no lookahead here. The Redbirds are off a blowout 68-36 win over Norfolk State with a key Missouri Valley Conference game on deck hosting Northern Iowa. They were swept last year in that series losing two very close games. While they would love to avenge the ALR loss from a year ago they have far more important games on deck. By our power ratings the revenge factor has added two full points to this number and we just don't feel that it's the correct adjustment. Look for the Redbirds to win but we don't feel comfortable laying this inflated number with a team that was 3-10 ATS as a home favorite a season ago and lost outright to NC Wilmington here as a 12 point favorite just 17 days ago. PLAY ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK |
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06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Dallas at Miami
Regardless of the outcome this has been one hell of a series. These teams match up so closely that no lead is safe. With Miami having their backs to the wall and Dallas proclaiming that they are treating this game as if it's a Game 7, we have to expect a very low scoring defensive battle. Overall 4 of the first 5 games in this series have stayed under the posted total, and traditionally defense continues to get stronger as a series evolves. The free throw shooting has been outstanding with both teams reaching at least 70% shooting in every game. That means that unless the refs all of a sudden start calling more fouls any extra points will not be coming from the foul line. Up until last game neither team ever sniffed 50% shooting from the field and both teams talked about their poor defensive performances after the previous game. We expect points to be hard to come by as this game stays well below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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06-02-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -4.5 | Top | 95-93 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Dallas at Miami
We used Miami in the series opener and we see no reason to get off the Heat train. Miami is undefeated at home in the playoffs and they have covered every home game in the past three rounds. We would look for no letup from a Heat team put together for the sole purpose of winning a championship. Miami was outshot from the free throw line in the opening game by a sizable margin, something unexpected the way Miami drives to the basket. Still Dallas couldn't find a way to cover the number. Now with Nowitzki with an injured left hand we can't see Dallas evening this series. Miami has all the athleticism and we talked earlier about the match-up advantages of James over anyone on the Dallas squad. Look for Miami to win by a margin tonight and force Dallas to hold serve at home. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-31-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -4.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Dallas at Miami
The Heat have covered all five games at home the past two playoff rounds and we expect them to get off to a solid start here. They are by far the better defensive team and they own significant match-up advantages against the Mavericks. While Miami will likely struggle to guard Nowitski the Mavericks will have major problems matching up with James. Miami has the ability to play James defensively against every position but the five. He shut down the reigning MVP in the previous round in key defensive situations. Dallas reaching this position in the finals wasn't a bit of a surprise to us, as the Mavericks were the best team out west with a healthy Dirk. But now they run into a bad match-up scenario which will give a distinct advantage to the host in the early going. Look for the Heat to clamp down the defense and win the opening game by a solid margin. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -6.5 | Top | 96-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Oklahoma City at Dallas
There are numerous reasons why the Dallas Mavericks will close out the series tonight with the Oklahoma Thunder. But the biggest reason was in the reactions to the total collapse by the Thunder in the last game. The players sitting on the bench had blank stares with no emotions. In the post game interviews it was clear that Durant and Westbrook had no answer for what just happened. Sure they said the right things about the series being over but you could see it in their mannerisms that they were done. The last two games at home Oklahoma City outrebounded Dallas by a combined margin of 118-88, and they took more trips to the free throw line. Yet they were beaten both times on their own home court. Now the Thunder must win three straight over Dallas including two on the road. That's simply not going to happen. The veteran Mavericks have been to the promised land too many times and come up short to not put away the Thunder early, and get some rest before facing the Heat in the Championship. Put a lid on this one as the Mavericks blow away the Thunder tonight. PLAY DALLAS |
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05-23-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Dallas at Oklahoma City
Must win game for the Thunder after falling down 2-1 with 2 of 3 remaining games being played in Dallas. Oklahoma City couldn't hit the side of a barn last time out including shooting 1 of 17 from behind the arc. What we do like about the Thunder in this series is their ability to get to the foul line. They have consistently shot more free throws in every match-up this season. We still think Dallas wins this series but they have a bit of a comfort level heading into game four. These teams are very close talent wise and yet the Thunder are being underpriced in our opinion here. Oklahoma City knows a home loss here would virtually end their season and this team is just too talented to go down that way. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-18-11 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181.5 | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
3* Miami at Chicago
The talking heads have been saying that the Heat need to play at a faster pace in game two to have success, but that's the same thing they have said about Miami all year. The truth of the matter is that Miami is best at the defensive end of the court and we expect the Heat to bounce back after a poor defensive performance. It's not easy to get transition baskets when you constantly are out rebounded, therefore it would be foolish for Miami to pick up the pace. Chicago knows that they are the best defensive team in the league and we can't see them changing their style. Look for a low scoring game with very physical play. PLAY UNDER |
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05-09-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 133-123 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Oklahoma City at Memphis
The Grizzlies are now 5-2 straight up against the Thunder this season so their play in this series has not been a fluke. Memphis is undefeated at home winning by margins of 5, 6 and 8 points against the Thunder this season. It's clear that Memphis has faced the two teams in San Antonio and Oklahoma City that they match up well against, and we consider the line in tonight's game to be rather cheap. Memphis is 35-16 ATS on the year when facing a team with a winning record. They have really come into their own in the second half of the year and are playing with great confidence. The only game in this series that Oklahoma State won the Thunder was on fire from the field hitting 52.8% overall and a whopping 57.1% from long range. We can't expect that to happen on the opposition's home court. Memphis held a lot of pointspread value against the Spurs throughout that series and they once again are undervalued here. Look for Memphis to take a commanding series lead tonight as they put the doubters to rest. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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05-06-11 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 92-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
LA Lakers at Dallas
Champions come to play when their backs are against the wall, and we feel the Lakers will win this game outright. Sure Los Angeles hasn't looked good the first two games of this series, but the Lakers have looked bad for extended stretches this year. Just when everyone is about to write them off they go on a long run and shut everyone up. Los Angeles has been a better road team than home team all season. We expect the Lakers to step up big time tonight as they were favored in Dallas in both regular season meetings. Now they are installed as an underdog and you know Phil Jackson will play that for all it's worth. We've been big believers in the Mavericks all season. Making more money on Dallas than any other team. That said, you can't help but think the Mavericks are feeling pretty good about the situation. They were hoping to get a split in LA and they won both games in impressive fashion. The Lakers have brought another dynasty to Los Angeles and this team will not go down in this fashion. Dallas may still win the series but Kobe and company will not be defeated in an embarrassing manner. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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04-29-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
San Antonio at Memphis
It's becoming crystal clear that this isn't the same Spurs team as earlier in the season. San Antonio surprised the league with more of an open court style early in the year, and they looked like the team to beat until roughly one month ago. But when the NBA playoff futures were released it was clear from a linesmaker's perspective the Spurs would be an afterthought in the postseason. That's been the case thus far as San Antonio needed to go to overtime last game in order to extend their series with Memphis. But after tonight Tony Parker and company will have a long needed vacation. Memphis has covered every game of this series except last time out in a seven point overtime loss while catching 6 1/2 points. It's clear that the betting public has been slow to recognize the clear personnel advantages by the Grizzlies in this series. Memphis has outshot the Spurs from the field in 6 of the last 7 meetings and despite having the bigger named players San Antonio hasn't had preferential treatment from the refs, as neither team is dominating from the foul line. Memphis has had a rebounding edge of 4-2-1 in the last seven games and it's clear that their youth has made a big difference. The Grizzlies are the hungrier squad and they have posted a better overall record that the Spurs the last part of the season. Memphis' rise continues tonight as they eliminate an aging Spurs squad. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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04-24-11 | Boston Celtics -3.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Boston at New York
The Celtics have now won the last seven meetings between these squads as they look to sweep the series today in New York. With Miami also up 3-0 in their series it's imperative that Boston closes out New York here. Teams playing at home and down 3-0 in the first round are very bad pointspread squads. Boston is a veteran team which has had to deal with major injuries all season. They need the rest a four game sweep would provide. New York hasn't shown much heart all season and now Billups is doubtful and Stoudemire is less than 100%. Boston has had little problem winning in this building the past three visits. Offensively Boston matches up extremely well with the Knicks and New York simply doesn't have the defensive presence to slow them down. Look for Boston to bring out the broom today. PLAY BOSTON |
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04-21-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers +5 | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Chicago at Indiana
The Pacers have matched up very well with the Bulls in the first two games of this series cashing both meetings. Indiana has outshot Chicago the last three meetings holding the Bulls to less than 44% shooting each game. The Pacers have won 2 of the last 3 games played in Indianapolis and Chicago hasn't looked nearly as dominating in this series as most suggested. Chicago had a free throw advantage of 22 after the first two games played at home but that won't be the case tonight in a different venue. Indiana has proven that they can compete with Chicago and tonight they get their own home cooking. PLAY INDIANA |
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04-19-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 183.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
Atlanta at Orlando
The Magic pride themselves on their defense and Dwight Howard is always a leading vote getter for the defensive MVP Award. Atlanta lit up the Magic for 103 points on 51.4% shooting from the field in game one. In the four previous meetings this season the Hawks scored 85, 91, 80 and 85 points. In the previous seven games from the 2009-2010 season Atlanta produced 84, 75, 98, 71, 86, 86 and 81 points. So you can see that the Hawks far exceeded their average offensive output in the opening game victory. Compared to the previous meetings from this season Orlando also shot far better than projected. The Magic were successful on 45.3% of their field goals compared to 41.6%, 35.2%, 37.8% and 43.0% in the other four meetings this season. The total in the opening game was 181 and as we write this the line has gone up 2 1/2 points from that number for game two. We can't see the entire pace of the series changing after just one high scoring game. We expect both teams to perform much better defensively here. PLAY UNDER |
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04-17-11 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 85-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
New York at Boston - The Celtics swept the season series but the Knicks played well down the stretch. Boston is by far the better defensive team but the big three may be on their last legs. That said we expect Boston to come out strong in the opening game as they have something to prove to the rest of the league. They have clearly the more playoff experienced roster as the most postseason players from New York came over in the Denver deal.
Boston lacks a lot of depth right now but with the added time outs in the playoffs the Celtic starters can play extended minutes. This was also a team that struggled without rest all season and that won't be the case in the postseason. PLAY BOSTON |
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04-11-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings +5.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Oklahoma City at Sacramento
We've been waiting for this situation for quite some time as it's clear that the City of Sacramento are about to lose the Kings. Therefore we expect a great atmosphere these last two home games as the city sends off their only major league team with huge support. The players continue to give their all as witnessed by the straight up road win at Golden State last night. Oklahoma City is also playing the second game of a back to back situation after visiting the Lakers in LA last night. The Thunder outscored the Lakers by 16 in the fourth quarter to secure the victory. They finish off the regular season at home on Wednesday. Off an emotional win over the defending champions we can't expect a superior effort here from the visitor. Look for Sacramento to take this one to the wire. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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04-08-11 | Washington Wizards +12.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Washington at Boston
With the Celtics loss last night to the Bulls it's become more important to rest their best players down the stretch. At just 4-13 ATS on the second game of a back to back situation, and with possible playoff foe Miami on deck, we look for Boston to go through the motions here. Washington shocked the Celtics 85-83 the last time these two met and the Wizards have cashed 5 of their last 7 games over the last two weeks. Like Cleveland and Sacramento the Wizards are not going into the offseason without a fight. With a high line Washington can easily stay within this number. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-02-11 | Kentucky v. Connecticut +2.5 | Top | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
Kentucky & Connecticut at Houston
UConn beat the Wildcats earlier this year in non-conference play 84-67 as the Huskies shot lights out from the field. While we don't expect that type of repeat shooting performance we side with Connecticut again in the rematch. If you're a believer in destiny you have to think this is UConn's tournament to lose. They played in arguably the toughest conference in the country and have been as impressive as anyone in this tournament. A lesser team would have folded after their exhausting run through the Big East Tournament. But every time they are counted out they rise to the occasion once more. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS on the season in non-conference affairs. Kentucky is the better shooting team of these two squads but they didn't match up well in the first meeting and we see a repeat of that problem. We expected this game to come out as an even matchup and we're someone surprised by the Kentucky favoritism. Maybe it's because the Wildcats are a public team that the linesmakers expect to take money, or maybe once again the public isn't giving the Huskies enough credit. Either way we will gladly take the inflated price in a game we expect to be decided late. Connecticut played in the better conference and they have been the more impressive team in the Big Dance. They don't deserve to be the underdog here. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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04-01-11 | Miami Heat v. Minnesota Timberwolves +11 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Miami at Minnesota
Nice spot to go against the Heat who are in the midst of as easy a schedule as you could ask for in the NBA. After facing Cleveland and Washington on the road Miami plays at Minnesota and New Jersey. The Heat are coming off a 16 point win over the Wizards and they beat Minnesota by 32 points in their only meeting this season. There is no type of motivation for Miami tonight yet they are expected to win by double digits. Minnesota on the other hand have dropped eight straight games and they won't be intimidated by the Heat here. Minnesota is off games against Dallas, Oklahoma City, Boston and Chicago. It's telling that Chicago, the hottest team in the league, only laid 9 1/2 points here and Miami is expected to win by more. The Heat are playing short handed right now and are looking to just stay healthy before the playoffs arrive. We can't see them being motivated to run up the score here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-27-11 | Kentucky v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Kentucky & North Carolina at Newark
We really expected North Carolina to come favored here. After all they played the tougher schedule coming from the stronger league, and the Tar Heels have won 17 of 19 games with the two losses coming to #1 seeded Duke. They defend the three well which is the Wildcat's strength and they own a large advantage on the glass. North Carolina is also off an easy game against Marquette while Kentucky was in a 40 minute battle with #1 seeded Ohio State. The Wildcats are a solid team but they are a young squad coming off their biggest win of their careers. Kentucky returned just one starter this year after missing the Big Dance a year ago. Kentucky lost at North Carolina 75-73 in early December when the Tar Heels were still struggling with rotations. Since that game North Carolina lost to Duke twice, Texas and Georgia Tech. They beat everyone else on the schedule and we believe they are the better team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-26-11 | New Jersey Nets +10 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 87-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
New Jersey at Atlanta
The Nets are obviously not a very good team but they continue to play hard for the coaching staff. Last night they went on the road to Orlando and brought home the cash in a 10 point defeat to the Magic. An Orlando team that is much better than the Hawk team they will face tonight. Atlanta has regressed the second half of the season dropping 12 of their last 18 games. They are playing uninspired ball since they are locked into their playoff seed with no way to move up for home court advantage. This is not the type of team you want to lay double digits with. New Jersey has beaten Atlanta 2 of the first 3 meetings this year as this is a team they have a great amount of confidence against. While this is the second of a back to back situation for New Jersey the Hawks must play again tomorrow, so they are likely to rest the starters if they have a lead. More reason to back the double digit underdog Nets. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-25-11 | Richmond +11 v. Kansas | Top | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
881/882 Richmond and Kansas at San Antonio
As much as we like this Kansas team they are simply laying too many points to a quality underdog here. Keep in mind that not only has Richmond looked impressive in this tournament but they beat VCU by 12 earlier this year and won at Purdue 65-54. Considering that VCU is still alive as of this writing and Purdue was a #3 seed, those are solid accomplishments. Richmond is a good 3 point shooting team which is what you want out of an underdog, and they are 39-21 ATS the past three seasons against winning teams. So they get up for big games and this is likely the biggest game any of these kids will ever play. Kansas has the rebounding edge but they are not at the top of their game right now. Kansas has dropped 5 of their last 8 games ATS and if it wasn't for a big run in the second half against Illinois they wouldn't have covered that game. The Jayhawks are 5-8-1 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA Tournament. They are bullies against lesser competition but often falter when stepping up in class. Kansas has a history of entering this tournament with NCAA Title hopes only to fall far earlier than expected. While we feel they will get the outright win here we expect the outcome to be much closer than the betting public has set the line. PLAY RICHMOND |
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03-24-11 | Arizona +8.5 v. Duke | Top | 93-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
811/812 Arizona & Duke at Anaheim
This is the highest spread game on Thursday and we don't agree with the betting public. Last week Duke used a very favorable location to knock off Hampton and Michigan. Now they must travel to the opposite coast to face a PAC 10 team that doesn't get nearly the national publicity as the ACC member. Duke has four losses on the season, all coming on the road. This is a team that rarely travels west of the Mississippi and is in a region that is very anti-Blue Devils. So to not only expect Duke to win but to do so by a sizable margin would be a mistake. Especially when you consider that the Blue Devils are about as public a team as there is in college basketball. Arizona is a solid team that can more than hold their own here in Anaheim. They faced the tougher road to get here with wins over Memphis and Texas. The victory over the Longhorns was especially impressive considering that they blew a sizable lead and still were able to come back for the victory. While Duke is 32-4 straight up on the season they are just 13-14 ATS when playing a winning team. Arizona on the other hand is a solid 14-10 ATS in that role. The Wildcats are a good shooting 3 point team which makes them a dangerous dog here. They also hold their own on the glass which also is a good statistic for an underdog. Unlike the last round where the Blue Devils had a location edge look for Arizona to get a fair shake from the officials. PLAY ARIZONA |
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03-23-11 | Atlanta Hawks +7 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Atlanta at Philadelphia
The Hawks should be in a foul mood tonight after being pummeled last night hosting the Bulls 114-81. Chicago is playing terrific ball right now and Atlanta ran into a buzz saw. The Hawks have had a very favorable schedule as of late playing 10 of their last 11 games at home. So just because this is the second game of a back to back situation doesn't mean the Atlanta players are fatigued. The Hawks also have embarrassing revenge with the Sixers after losing by 34 points at home in their last meeting. Philadelphia completely dominated a lethargic Atlanta team that was outrebounded by 20 on their home court. This game should have special meeting for the visitor. Philadelphia is playing their first game back home off a West Coast road trip. The Sixers have lost 3 of 5 as of late despite playing the likes of the Kings, Clippers, Bucks and Jazz. Because of their earlier improved play Philadelphia is now being overpriced in the betting marketplace. Atlanta has won 2 of the 3 meetings this year with the lone loss coming in embarrassing fashion. Off a non-competitive game last night we expect the best out of the Hawks tonight. PLAY ATLANTA |
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03-21-11 | Rhode Island +5 v. Central Florida | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
623/624 Rhode Island at Central Florida
We've been down on Conference USA most of the season and it's paid off pretty well. The lone entrant into the Big Dance, Memphis, was eliminated in the first round. Atlantic 10 entrants Temple and Richmond actually performed very well in winning 3 of 4 games with the lone loss coming in double overtime to a #2 seed. Central Florida started the year on fire but they have been treading water since. The Knights are only 4-9 ATS at home with a 14-4 straight up record in this building. Rhode Island is a solid 7-7 straight up on the road with a 7-6 spread mark. They are playing quality ball down the stretch winning and covering 4 of 7. The Rams played the tougher schedule and are a bit better team in our power ratings. With home court value lessoned at this time of year this line opened at least two points higher than we expected. PLAY RHODE ISLAND |
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03-20-11 | Illinois v. Kansas -8 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 101 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
733/734 Illinois & Kansas at Tulsa
Somewhat surprised by this line as we had projected a spread3* of 10-12 with UNLV as the opposition, and the Rebels were favored by 2 over Illinois. The Big 10 has been an underrated conference in this tourney, but the lower tier teams have already been knocked out with Penn State and Michigan State tasting defeat. Illinois is closer to those two squads than the Purdues and Ohio States of the conference. Illinois was most impressive early on with wins over North Carolina, Gonzaga and Wisconsin but they faded late in the season. The Illini faced two other Big 12 schools this year losing at Texas by 6 and Missouri by 11. Illinois played their best game in a long while against UNLV but it must be noted that they dropped four straight games against Big Dance opponents before beating the Rebels. We feel that Kansas is the best team in the country with their only losses coming against Texas and Kansas State. They were 10-2 straight up against Big Dance participants including outright road wins at Arizona and Michigan, two teams still alive at this writing. Our power ratings clearly side with Kansas here and the location should also benefit the Jayhawks. Off what they consider a poor performance we'll back the better team at a cheap number. PLAY KANSAS |
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03-19-11 | UCLA v. Florida -5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
515/516 UCLA & Florida at Tampa Bay
This is a very tough draw for the Bruins who had to fly across the entire nation in order to compete on the opposite coast. That travel scenario seemed to catch up to UCLA in the second half on Thursday as they blew a huge lead over Michigan State. The Spartans didn't have the talent to come all the way back but they did expose this Bruins team for what they are, a good squad but not of the caliber of Florida. UCLA was just 4-7 straight up this year against teams invited to the Big Dance. They are 0-5 straight up on the road against Big Dance entrants. While this isn't a true home game for the Gators, the proximity of the site clearly favors Florida. The crowd will be even more lopsided Saturday as the Michigan State and Santa Barbara faithful sell their remaining tickets to the well traveling Gator partisan crowd. As opposed to UCLA the Gators are 11-3 straight up against Big Dance entrants. The only losses coming to Kentucky twice and Ohio State. UCLA didn't have the chance to rest their starters as much as they would have liked because Michigan State refused to roll over and die. That along with the poor traveling situation makes them very vulnerable once again today. Look for Florida to pull away in the second half for a comfortable victory. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-18-11 | Denver Nuggets +6 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Denver at Orlando
Like Dallas earlier in the season the betting public has been slow to realize just how good this new fangled Nuggets team really is. Denver has won 10 of their last 12 games with the losses coming by 1 point at Portland at 6 points at the Clippers. The Nuggets have Miami on deck tomorrow so the Magic will get their full attention in what likely is a more winnable game. Denver has an 11-1 spread record during this streak and have proven themselves to be a better team without Carmelo Anthony. Orlando is playing their first game back at home after a five game western road trip where they went 3-2. This is a team that is fading fast having won just 3 of their last 7 games overall. When stepping up in class the Magic lost to the Lakers on the road and Portland and Chicago at home. After this game Orlando heads out of town again the next two games. This is a team that made a big move earlier in the season but the sustained improvement hasn't come. Their best player is very likely to play elsewhere next season and the window is closing quickly for an NBA Championship. The Magic continue to be priced as an elite team in the east but that fact is no longer the case. We are getting the better team plus the points here, an automatic play. PLAY DENVER |
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03-18-11 | Akron v. Notre Dame -14 | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
841/842 Akron & Notre Dame at Chicago
Being a 1985 Akron University graduate I follow this team closer than just about anyone. With that said this team is extremely fortunate to be in the tourney. While the Zips have won 11 of their last 13 games they received every advantage possible from the officials in the MAC Championship Game against Kent State. That overtime victory over their biggest rival has to leave this team a bit drained emotionally. Having to face a second seeding Irish team in their own backyard will be just too much to handle. Here's a quick question for you. How many Big Dance qualifying teams did the Zips beat this year? ZERO. The only team they faced that made it to the Big Dance was Temple and the Owls pounded Akron 82-47. The Zips simply don't have the inside game offensively to give the Irish and problems. They are a perimeter shooting team that won't have any advantages in this matchup. As opposed to the Zips the Fighting Irish played 20 games against teams who are in the Big Dance. Outside of Big East play they took on the likes of Georgia and Kentucky from the SEC, Gonzaga and Wisconsin. This is a team that has a chip on their shoulder about not receiving a top seed and they have been an excellent bully posting a 13-6 spread record this season when favored. The MAC has been fodder for the power conferences yearly here in the Big Dance and the Zips will not be an exception to the rule. While we are proud of how this team played down the stretch they are in way over their heads against this type of opponent. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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03-18-11 | Tennessee v. Michigan +2 | Top | 45-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
831/832 Tennessee & Michigan at Charlotte
Michigan is a 2 point underdog pretty much across the board as we write this and we can't for the life of us figure out why they are the underdog. Michigan has cashed 12 of their last 13 games with the only straight up losses coming at Ohio State by 9, at Illinois by 2, hosting Wisconsin by 1 and against Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament by 7. This is a team that played with Syracuse in a 53-50 loss, and Gave Kansas all they could handle in a 67-60 defeat. All but one of these losses have come to teams seeded in the Top 4 in the Big Dance. Sure Michigan isn't at that level but they are surely as good if not better than Tennessee. The Volunteers lost to the likes of USC, the College of Charleston and Oakland in non-conference action. They also struggled in beating Belmont twice by margins of 9 and 1 point. When stepping up in class out of SEC play they did beat Pittsburgh by 7 but lost to Connecticut by 11. In fact when they faced Top 4 seeded teams in this tournament the Volunteers could only beat Pittsburgh while losing to Florida by 6, by 1 and by 11. They also lost to Kentucky by 12 and 6 in addition to the Connecticut defeat. The Big 10 gets a bad rap in the national media but they are a far better conference this year that the SEC. That Big 10 prejudice is at work here. Besides Michigan has proven themselves to be a dangerous underdog going 12-4 ATS this year and 30-14 ATS in that role the past three seasons. Tennessee on the other hand is 7-15 ATS when favored this year and 29-41 ATS in that role the past three seasons. Michigan is playing the much better ball right now and they come out of Charlotte with a victory on Friday. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-17-11 | UNC Asheville v. Pittsburgh -18 | Top | 51-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
719/720 NC Asheville & Pittsburgh at Washington D.C.
Big South entrant UNC Asheville had to go to overtime to knock off Sun Belt entrant Arkansas Little Rock just two days ago. Now they must face the number one seed in the Southeast with very little preparation time. Small market teams have never fared well in this tournament, especially when they couldn't dominate their own conference. This isn't a situation like Butler last year who ran through the Horizon Conference from opening to closing bell. This is a Bulldogs team that has posted 20 wins against a schedule featuring Belmont Abbey, Virginia Intermont, Montreat and King College. They entered the conference tournament having dropped 3 of 7 games. When stepping up in class against stronger disinterested foes the Bulldogs lost by 11 at North Carolina, by 15 at Georgetown, and by 47 at Ohio State. The Bulldogs returned four starters so they had most of their rotation set while the Hoyas and Tar Heels were still setting up their own rotations. Dominant teams who fall early in their conference tournaments are clubs we want to back against an undermanned foe. Keep in mind that Pitt lost to Connecticut by just two points in the Big East Tournament. One of only five losses on the season. The five teams the Panthers lost to were Tennessee, Notre Dame, St Johns, Louisville and Connecticut ,all teams receiving bids to the Big Dance. Three of those losses were by 3 points or less. With a chip on their shoulder after losing on the 10th the Panthers have been wanting to get the monkey off their back for a full week now. The last two years Pitt is 13-6-1 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-2-1 ATS off a straight up defeat. Top ranked teams traditionally win in the first round by much more than what we have to lay here. Look for Pittsburgh to come out with some fire on Thursday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-16-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Cleveland at Sacramento
The Cavaliers are a well rested team having last played on Sunday. In fact, they have played just once in the last six days. Cleveland has gone on the road just twice in the last 13 games. Not only are they extremely well rested but are off back to back embarrassing 20 point defeats. Because Cleveland has fallen so far so fast they may have the smallest home court advantage in the league. After leading the NBA in wins the past two seasons the Cleveland faithful had grown entitled and they haven't been very vocal this season. Which is why the Cavaliers are much better plays on the road where they catch extra points. The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries this year and have had to go through an adjustment period each time. Now with a very favorable schedule and plenty of practice time this team will know their roles much better after the injury to Jamison. Cleveland has played just four road games over the past six weeks covering three times, they are catching too many points from a weak Sacramento squad. The Kings are playing their fourth game in six days. Like Cleveland the local fans have become disenchanted. Not only because of their poor play but because it's almost certain the team owners will look to move the club in the offseason. Sacramento has dropped 7 of 9 straight up at home and they have won only once in the last 19 games overall by more than this spread. That victory came in their last outing against Golden State in a 129-119 victory. The Kings play very shoddy defense allowing 106 points or more in seven straight games. They are just 3-7 ATS on the season in the role of a favorite. Sacramento is just 6-18 straight up this year playing a team with a losing record. They simply do not deserve to be a favorite of this size. Bad teams are very thankful for a victory and are satisfied with the outright win. To expect the Kings to win here by a margin would be a big mistake. PLAY CLEVELAND |