Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-15-11 | Kent State +11 v. Saint Marys CA | Top | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
559/560 Kent State at St Mary's
This line really surprised us as it's not clear that the conferences have this big of a discrepancy. It was clear that both of these teams were in the top two in their respective leagues with an equal chance of going to the Big Dance. Both lost to the eventual conference champion, with Kent State doing so in overtime. The Golden Flashes are clearly playing the better ball having won 11 of their last 15 games. They have won 4 of the last 5 games away from home. Kent was 8-5 ATS on the road this season. St Mary's lost 4 of their last 7 games including home losses to Gonzaga and Utah State, the only good teams they faced as of late. St Mary's posted a mediocre 6-7 spread record at home. The Gaels really thought they had done enough to secure an at large bid from the NCAA. When that didn't happen they were devastated. We can't see how they can rebound and beat a team like Kent State by this type of number, especially the way they have played as of late. PLAY KENT STATE |
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03-12-11 | Sacramento Kings +10 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Sacramento at New Orleans
The Kings have been a tough opponent for the Hornets this season with all three meetings being decided by 6 points or less. Sacramento beat New Orleans 102-96 in the last meeting. The Kings have dropped five straight games but gave San Antonio all they could handle last night. This is a team still playing hard despite having a shortage of healthy talent. This is a definite flat spot for the Hornets who just played Chicago and Dallas and have Denver, Phoenix and Boston on deck. They are off a satisfying 93-92 victory over the Mavericks but have dropped 4 of their last 6 games here in straight up fashion. Chris Paul is likely to return to action tonight for the host who will likely be a bit overconfident against this scrappy underdog. If you've followed the Hornets all season you are well aware of their tendency to get up for big games but somehow fall asleep against teams they should coast by. We expect that to be the case once again on Saturday. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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03-11-11 | Illinois v. Michigan +3 | Top | 55-60 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
821/822 Illinois & Michigan at Indianapolis
Despite identical 19-12 records these two teams are going in opposite directions, especially when you consider how they have fared as of late away from home. Illinois has dropped 5 of their last 6 on the road with the lone victory coming against a fast fading Minnesota club. The Illini even lost at Indiana in a game they were favored by 4 points. Michigan is playing much better ball on the road which is a key in these neutral site games. The Wolverines have won 4 of 6 straight up on the highway with the two outright losses resulting in spread covers. One of those defeats came at Illinois in a 54-52 nail bitter. In that game Illinois outshot the Wolverines both from the field and the three point line and also won the rebounding battle 38-32, yet Michigan easily covered the spread. That shows us that Michigan did all the little things to keep them in the game. We expect Michigan to shoot much better this time around and win this one outright. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-08-11 | Butler v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3 | Top | 59-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
591/591 Butler at Wisconsin Milwaukee
While Butler has the marquee name it's been UWM who has owned this rivalry as of late. UWM has won both meetings this year in impressive fashion by margins of 6 on the road and 24 points at home. They have now covered 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and they enter play tonight just as hot at the Bulldogs. Butler has won 8 straight games but they have posted a cover only 4 of those times. UWM on the other hand has won 10 of their last 11 with 9 pointspread covers. In the two wins over Butler this year they held the Bulldogs to under 40% shooting both games while surpassing 54% themselves each time. While the Bulldogs have the better record on the season and the far more name recognition, Wisconsin Milwaukee is every bit as good as Butler but the line just doesn't show it. PLAY WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE |
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03-04-11 | Chicago Bulls +2 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Chicago at Orlando
The Bulls are now 14-9 straight up and 15-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. While they are playing their fourth straight of a five game road trip none of the games are in a back to back situation. The Bulls have held 7 of the last 9 opponents to under 100 points and for a rare occasion have a full arsenal of healthy bodies available. Orlando has been an up and down team all season. In fact, we saw last night exactly what the Magic faithful have seen all season. Orlando trailed Miami by 24 points in the third quarter only to come all the way back for the victory. That took a lot out of this team especially considering they were taking on the Heat in a nationally televised contest. Unlike the Bulls, Orlando hasn't stepped up very often against the better teams in the league. They are just 11-14 straight up and 9-15 ATS against winning squads. Chicago is the better team here and they are rested. Look for a Bulls outright victory. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-02-11 | Utah +9.5 v. Colorado St | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
787/788 Utah at Colorado State
The Utes have been down this year but they have been playing much better ball as of late. They have won three straight games heading into tonight's match-up including an outright win at New Mexico as a 15 point underdog. Prior to the current streak they gave BYU a good game on the road easily covering the 20 point spread. This is a team playing their best ball of the season and peaking at the right time with the conference tourney right around the corner. Just two weeks ago Colorado State was right in the thick of things for the Big Dance. But they have fallen on hard times losing to UNLV, BYU and Air Force. The loss to the Falcons by 17 points tells us all we need to know about the heart of this team. Now they face Utah before ending the season at San Diego State. The only way the Rams get the invite is by winning the conference tournament. Therefore they have nothing to play for the next two games and they are not a team we want any part of laying points. Utah is playing with confidence now while Colorado State is playing out the string. The Utes are 18-9 straight up in this series and they are playing with home loss revenge tonight. PLAY UTAH |
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03-01-11 | Dallas Mavericks -1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Dallas at Philadelphia
It's amazing to us that the Mavericks continue to be overlooked when talking about title contenders this season. We hear all about the Celtics, Heat, Bulls, Lakers and Spurs with never a mention of Dallas. Hell, the Knicks have gotten more publicity than the Mavericks. But Dallas enters play tonight at 43-16 on the season including 41-9 with Dirk Nowitski in the starting lineup. This is a team that has won 16 of their last 17 games with the only loss coming by a single point in the second game of a back to back in Denver. Philadelphia is making a playoff run in the East but they will really be stepping up in class on Tuesday. The Sixers just played the likes of Cleveland, Detroit and Washington, possibly the three worst teams in the league right now. They get Minnesota and Golden State the next two games. Dallas is 19-8 ATS on the season against teams with winning records, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season. The Mavericks lost to the Sixers last year in this building, they won't take them for granted here. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-27-11 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Philadelphia at Cleveland
The Sixers have just beaten up on two weak teams at home in Washington and Detroit and are expecting much of the same today in Cleveland. But we expect the road to me a much tougher place for Philadelphia on Sunday. Cleveland has won 3 of their last 5 games in straight up fashion including wins over soon to be playoff teams the Lakers and Knicks. The Cavs still have problems defending but this is now a team that has shown an ability to put points on the board. Cleveland has surpassed the century mark each of the last five games including 115 and 119 the last two times out. Recently traded Mo Williams was a boost for this offense but his defensive problems hurt this team more than helping. Now as coach Scott brings in more of his type of players the 11-47 Cavs are going to have plenty of value. Philadelphia has won three straight games in impressive fashion with a home showdown with Dallas on the horizon. The last time they faced Cleveland they won by 20 points shooting 51.9% from the field. We see an overconfident Sixers team just happy to get out of "The Q" with a victory. Too many points for a Cleveland team that is just starting to believe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-26-11 | Wyoming +17 v. UNLV | Top | 77-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
673/674 Wyoming at UNLV
The Cowboys have had a long season including having their quality coach fired because of their poor play. They end the year against the top three teams in the conference UNLV, BYU and San Diego State. They lost at home to the Rebels by 9 points although they did stay under the number. But this is a team that hasn't thrown in the towel having won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss being a respectable showing. We are willing to take the generous points here against what figures to be a disinterested favorite. UNLV just beat Colorado State and New Mexico, the later in overtime. Those two wins virtually assured the Rebels of an at large bid to the big dance. This is a team that has not been a good home favorite when taking on weak opposition. This season they are 3-10 ATS at home and over the last 14 years UNLV is just 17-29 ATS laying large numbers at the Thomas & Mack. It's Senior Night and the Rebels have four players leaving the program including two who rarely see action. That means the game will feature rotations that rarely see the light of day even in practice. Considering that UNLV had just two days off since the New Mexico overtime victory we highly doubt these rotations received any work this week in practice. The goal for UNLV has been to make the Big Dance and victories over Wyoming and Utah to end the season won't change that. With the Rebels hosting the conference tournament once again the best chance to add to their resume would be to beat San Diego State or BYU, two teams they are 0-4 against this season. Look for the coaching staff to clear the bench as the Cowboys stay well within this sizable number. PLAY WYOMING |
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02-25-11 | New Orleans Hornets v. Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 | Top | 95-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
New Orleans at Minnesota
The Hornets have dropped 6 of their last 7 road games in straight up fashion. They have lost both meetings with Minnesota this year by margins of 12 and 15 points. New Orleans is in the midst of a schedule that sees them playing in a different city for 15 straight games. Yet they are not only expected to win here but do so by a margin. Minnesota has dropped six straight games as the offense has had a real tough time as of late. But now they face an equally poor scoring unit as the Hornets have gone five straight games under the century mark and 9 of the last 10. New Orleans will likely be without David West tonight while Emeka Okafor tries to return to the lineup after missing the past ten games. That leaves a disjointed team who hasn't played together with this lineup in a very long time. Tough to look sharp on the road without one of your premier scorers. In a low scoring affair we look for Minnesota to stay within this number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-23-11 | Air Force +2 v. Wyoming | Top | 61-63 | Push | 0 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
801/802 Air Force at Wyoming
Major step down in class for the Falcons here after facing BYU, UNLV and San Diego State the last three times out. Until running into that terrible threesome they had covered 5 of their previous 6 games. Air Force has had little problem with the Cowboys the last two meetings winning by 21 and 19 points. Off three straight defeats the Flyboys will be ready to take out some frustrations tonight. Wyoming has dropped 9 of their last 10 games in straight up fashion and they come into tonight's game as a banged up bunch. As many as four players will not be fully healthy tonight after losing three players earlier for the season. This isn't a team with enough depth to play off those absences and it's likely to take a toll the remainder of the season. Air Force has won 4 of 5 road games in straight up fashion when not playing the top four teams in the league. Wyoming is far from that as we're somewhat surprised by them being the favorite here. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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02-19-11 | UNLV v. Colorado St | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
571/572 UNLV at Colorado State
The Rebels are down this year and it's taking the betting public a long time to realize what we knew a month ago. Going against the Rebels has been our meal ticket as of late and we will continue to go against this overrated squad. Simply put UNLV doesn't have enough offensive talent to stretch the court with outside shooting. They also don't have their traditional athletic advantage that they have possessed for the last 20 years. The other teams in the conference are recruiting just as well if not better than UNLV. The Rebels are winless in conference against the top teams in the Mountain West. They are 0-2 against San Diego State, 0-2 against BYU and they were blown out of their own gym against these Rams. UNLV lost those five games by a total of 53 points with none of the losses by less than six points. Colorado State has won 7 of their last 9 games with the losses coming to San Diego State and BYU by a total of 11 points. This team is the far superior club right now as they are playing with extreme confidence while the Rebels question every move they make. In order to win on the road you must be physically stronger than the opposition and have a superior shooting night. We simply can't see the Rebels having either of those advantages here. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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02-19-11 | Vanderbilt v. Auburn +11 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
541/542 Vanderbilt at Auburn
The Commodores are playing very well right now having won four straight games but they are a much better play at home than on the road. In conference play Vandy has lost outright at South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida. The road wins have come by 7 at Mississippi State and 8 at Georgia. Off four big wins with a key in-state revenger on deck against Tennessee we can see the Volunteers taking this Auburn team for granted. After all they beat the Tigers by 8 and 7 points the last two years. The Tigers are off an embarrassing 31 point loss at Mississippi. They have been competitive at home with conference losses by 13, 10, 5 and 7 points. The last time they played on this court they upset Mississippi State. There is also extra motivation because of the poisoning of the on campus trees. Because of that we can expect a little extra motivation and pride from the home crowd and the players. PLAY AUBURN |
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02-16-11 | Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks -11 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Sacramento at Dallas
The Kings are off an embarrassing 30 point loss at Oklahoma City last night but we don't expect a rebound of sorts for Sacramento tonight. They are playing their 4th game in 5 nights with the All-Star break on deck. Sacramento has dropped 6 of their last 7 games and teams without playoff aspirations have a tendency to mail it in right before the break. With a 13-39 record on the season this isn't a team we would expect to go out with a bang at this point. Unlike the Kings the Mavs have plenty to play for. They are a veteran team that has a great chance for a high seed in the playoffs. With the Lakers obviously taking a step back the Western Conference is wide open this season. Dallas has had the last three days off before facing the Kings and Suns before the break. The Mavericks struggled with Sacramento in the first two meetings this year with a pair of two point road wins. That means Dallas won't take Sacramento lightly tonight. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-16-11 | Colorado St -3.5 v. Texas Christian | Top | 69-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
769/770 Colorado State at TCU
The Rams have been a very pleasant surprise this season with an actual shot at playing in the Big Dance. They enter this game at 17-7 on the year and with the steady decline of UNLV they have become one of the Top 4 teams in the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State has been especially impressive on the road where they are 6-2 straight up with wins at Wyoming, Utah and UNLV the last three games away from home. This is a team on a mission right now and they are well rested having played just once in the last ten days. TCU started the season with high expectations but they have fallen completely apart. Injuries to key players and others simply leaving the team has left this squad as a shell of their former selves. TCU has dropped 12 of the last 13 games with a home win over lowly Wyoming being the only positive. The last three games at home they have been beaten by a struggling UNLV squad by 15 along with losses to Air Force and Utah, two of the lesser teams in this conference. Colorado State simply has more to play for and they are the best team the Horned Frogs have played here in the last five weeks. Colorado State shot over 60% in the first meeting between these two and another big shooting night would not surprise. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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02-15-11 | Charlotte Bobcats +9.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Charlotte at Chicago
Many will expect Charlotte to suffer a letdown here after knocking off the Lakers last night at home. But this isn't the Lakers team of old as it's obvious to anyone who has watched this team play that they are not the favorite to raise the trophy again this season. So a victory over Los Angeles doesn't have the same significance as it had in the past. The Bobcats are playing great ball having covered 4 of the last 5 games including outright wins over the Lakers, Hawks and Celtics, all teams that will have high seeds come playoff time. They have matched up very well with Chicago this year winning both meetings outright as 7 1/2 and 3 point underdogs. Chicago is home for their first game from an extended road trip which is always a bad pointspread proposition. They also have a statement game with San Antonio up next on Thursday night. Charlotte was just 6 for 34 from the 3 point line in the two wins earlier this season against the Bulls. If they can win those game with that type of shooting from long range it's obvious that the spread here is simply too high for the Bulls to cover consistently. We'll gladly takes the points with the confident visitor. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-13-11 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207 | Top | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Washington at Cleveland
The Wizards haven't won a road game all season while the Cavaliers just broke a record tying losing streak. What do these two teams have in common? They are young and play little defense. The Wizards allow over 103 points a game while Cleveland permits more than 105 per contest. In 8 of the last 9 road games for Washington they have permitted at least 100 points. This is a team that doesn't help defensively and that's especially true away from home. The Cavaliers have very little presence inside with a young JJ Hickson being the only real defensive threat and he suffers from foul trouble on many occassions. Guards are able to penetrate to the lane on the Cavs with little physical reaction. Baron Davis did as he pleased on Friday and it left the rest of the Clipper team wide open for uncontested jumpers. Cleveland has permitted 11 straight opponents to reach 99 points or more with 7 of those 11 reaching 110 points or better. Mo Williams returned to action on Friday and he is the only Cleveland player that has the ability to drive to the basket and pull up for a long range three. His ability to stretch the defense will allow the other Cleveland players to have open shots. But his return comes at a price as he's not a good defender and the young point guards of the league can have a big game at his expense. Look for a fast paced game with plenty of open shots as this game sails over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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02-12-11 | San Diego St +1 v. UNLV | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
635/636 San Diego St at UNLV
The Aztecs have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series as they are one of the few teams on the schedule of UNLV that matches them in athleticism. UNLV isn't a good shooting team anyway which makes this match-up a bad one for the Rebels. UNLV needs to get in the open court to get clean looks at the basket and the Aztecs are so long and lean that simply doesn't happen. The last two meetings saw the Rebels fail to reach 50 points as they shot 36.1% and 32.7% from the floor. San Diego State has shown some chinks in the armor as of late but that has come against teams with a solid perimeter game like BYU. UNLV simply doesn't have that ability to shoot well from the outside. Therefore San Diego State can use their huge edge in rebounding to take advantage of a smaller Rebel squad. The last four meetings have seen a 9 rebound or more advantage for the Aztecs which is huge in a projected low scoring game. We look for San Diego State to once again stuff a questionable UNLV offense in another low scoring affair. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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02-10-11 | Dallas Mavericks +3 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Dallas at Denver
It's clear that the Mavericks are the better squad here so we're kind of surprised by the current line. Sure the number is shaded towards Dallas but it's not nearly enough of an adjustment when you take into account how these two teams are playing. Dallas is seven games better in the standings even though they played quite some time without their best player, although Carmelo was absent for a while for the Nuggets. So even if you call that a wash Dallas has proven themselves to be the better team when both squads are healthy. Dallas has won 10 straight games entering tonight including victories over Atlanta, New York and Boston. The latter two teams on the road. Denver on the other hand has dropped 5 of 7 including losses to New Jersey, Golden State and a struggling Utah squad. Both teams are off road games last night so the normal home court advantage for the Nuggets is lessoned. Dallas has won 3 of the last 5 meetings including 2 of 3 straight up in Denver. Dallas is 16-8 SU when playing a team with a winning record while Denver is just 9-13 SU when doing the same. We expect money to come in on the Mavericks by game time as it's clearly the right side here. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-09-11 | Chicago Bulls +1 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 91-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Chicago at Utah
The Bulls have dropped two straight games at Golden State and Portland with Utah and New Orleans remaining on this road trip. They haven't had great success against the Jazz as of late but this Utah team pales in comparison to previous versions. The Bulls had gone 13 straight games holding the opposition under the century mark until the two recent defeats. With a day off we expect Chicago to put the clamps down on this inconsistent Jazz scoring unit. Utah is on a current 4-9 streak with the only quality win coming against Denver. Sacramento, Charlotte and Minnesota were the only other victories. The Jazz have traditionally been strong at home but they have dropped 3 of the last 5 games played here in straight up fashion. Chicago has been at their best when facing high scoring teams and we expect that defense to be the key tonight. Look for Chicago to come out of Utah with an outright victory. PLAY CHICAGO |
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02-09-11 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +7 | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
779/780 Wisconsin at Iowa
Flat spot in the schedule for the Badgers who just beat Purdue and Michigan State at home and hosts #1 Ohio State on Saturday. That's their three most talented rivals in a four game stretch and it's well known that Wisconsin is a much better team at home than on the road. We simply can't see the Badgers being overly excited for this game based on the schedule and knowing the last time they faced the Hawkeyes they came away with a 27 point home victory. Iowa isn't one of the elite teams in the Big 10 Conference but they have been very competitive when playing at home. They beat Michigan State and Indiana the last two games on this court and actually have a two game winning streak overall, after taking care of Indiana on the road last time out. Iowa played Ohio State within 5 points here a couple weeks ago and they have enough talent to take Wisconsin to the wire here. PLAY IOWA |
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02-05-11 | UNLV v. Brigham Young -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
577/578 UNLV at BYU
The Rebels have dropped four straight against the spread as they continue to have trouble putting the ball in the basket. UNLV is a very athletic team but they don't have a great deal of offensive talent. They get next to nothing from the so called big men in the lineup and the remainder of the team is built around perimeter players who aren't skilled at outside shooting. Willis for the most part is the only talented scorer that can take the ball to the basket and he has been less than 100% all season. BYU dominated the Rebels in Las Vegas earlier and we see a repeat performance here. UNLV simply didn't have anyone able to guard Jimmer Fredette as he was able to take over the game from an offensive perspective. Because of weak outside shooting UNLV didn't have a player that could challenge Fredette on the defensive end of the court. BYU is nearly unbeatable at home and they already took care of a similar styled and more talented San Diego State team here. This line is simply too short as the Cougars sweep the season series. PLAY BYU |
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02-04-11 | Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Dallas at Boston
The Mavericks are one of those NBA teams that is just as strong on foreign courts as their own. Now 14-7 67% straight up on the road and that includes the games Big Dirk missed because of injury. Dallas is 17-4 straight up against the East and they have enough talent to take the Celtics to the wire tonight. After all they have beaten the Celtics 8 of the last 13 meetings and they enter play tonight on a solid five games winning streak after pounding the Knicks in New York 113-97. They do play tomorrow night at Charlotte but this could very well be a statement game for the Mavericks. This is the first game back for Boston after a West Coast trip which saw them capture 3 of 4 against the likes of the Blazers, Kings, Lakers and Suns. After upsetting Los Angeles the Celts survived a letdown spot at Sacramento. But now back home the spot isn't as favorable with a quality opponent in wait. Revenge is on the minds of the host as they dropped a two point decision at Dallas in the first week of the season. But we have learned since then that the Mavericks are a force in the league as defensively they are far superior to previous editions. Talent wise there is not that big of gap between these two squads. We take the points with Dallas tonight. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-02-11 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -2 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Houston at Utah
The Rockets are off a tough overtime loss to the Lakers last night and now must travel to the altitude of Utah to take on a very hungry Jazz squad. The Rockets have been in a brutal stretch of games playing the rejuvenated Clippers, Mavericks, Spurs and Lakers in the last week. That's enough to take the air out of any team, especially considering the extra five minutes of action last night. Utah has been in a funk the last couple weeks but they have shown signs of a turnaround. The Jazz have won 2 of the last 3 games and they are looking much tougher on the defensive end of the court. Utah has dominated the Rockets in this building winning 32 of the last 39 meetings in straight up fashion. With the line being so low tonight a straight up win very likely rewards the ATS backers. Okur, Kirilenko and Williams are doubtful tonight but there is a chance they can make a return to action. Even with the major injuries the Jazz have felt this month they are still 5-2 straight up at home. Keep in mind Utah won outright at Houston just three weeks ago, so they match up pretty well with the Rockets. PLAY UTAH |
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02-02-11 | Marquette +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
739/740 Marquette at Villanova
Somewhat surprised by the line in this game as these two have been involved in some real battles as of late. Each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points or less. Both regular season games last year came down to the last possession as these two squads couldn't be any more even in their encounters. Sure we have a situational edge for the Wildcats who are off back to back upset losses, but this will be a very tough matchup for the favorite. Villanova has been nothing special off a conference loss posting a 7-7 spread mark the past three seasons. Marquette has cashed 3 of the last 4 times at Villanova and they have posted an excellent 9-3 spread mark against winning teams. The Golden Eagles have long been a play on team when on the road posting an 18-9 spread mark the past three seasons. Off three straight outright losses on the road as of late there is just as much motivation for the visitor as the host. This number is just too high considering the situation and the history between these two clubs. PLAY MARQUETTE |
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01-31-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Miami Heat -17.5 | Top | 90-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Cleveland at Miami
Motivation is probably the biggest handicapping factor in NBA basketball, that and analyzing the traveling situation. We all remember the first meeting of the season when LeBron returned to Cleveland only to see the Heat whip the Cavs in front of a national audience 118-90. At that time Cleveland looked to be a borderline playoff team while the Heat as expected got off to a slow start to the season. By the time these two met again it was clear that that first game was a turning point for both squads. Miami beat Cleveland in that game 101-95 as the Cavaliers had huge motivation. Now six weeks later it's clear that Miami is a force while Cleveland clearly has the worst team in the league. Where as the Cavs had something to prove in the previous two meetings they know this game will not be a competitive contest. LeBron himself has said he wants to take it to his old team every chance he gets because of his hatred towards the Cleveland owner. After winning by just six points the last time these two teams got together we can see James and company showing no mercy here. Cleveland just lost to Boston by 17 and Orlando by 16 when it was clear neither of those teams had any interest in running up the score, that won't be the case tonight. Cleveland has a somewhat winnable game hosting Indiana on deck while Miami doesn't play again until Thursday at Orlando. This one will get ugly in a hurry. PLAY MIAMI |
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01-29-11 | Butler v. Valparaiso +2.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
543/544 Butler at Valparaiso
It's now very clear that this Butler squad is just a shell of the team that shocked the nation in making it to last years National Championship Game. They enter here at 14-7 on the season and just 6-5 straight up on the road. The Bulldogs have lost 2 of their last 3 games including an 86-80 home loss last time out to Wisconsin Milwaukee as a whopping 14 point favorite. Butler is just 2-4 ATS the last three seasons off a conference loss. Valparaiso has dropped 9 straight games to Butler so this is a huge game for the host. That fact may have been the reason for their home loss to Wisconsin Green Bay in their last outing. Valpo is 18-11 ATS here the last three seasons and they took Butler to the wire a season ago on this court. This team is well rested and focused. In fact, with 5 or 6 days of rest Valparaiso has posted an 11-0 spread record the past three seasons. Now 15-6 ATS off a conference loss we look for a very focused host tonight to end the long Butler dominance. PLAY VALPARAISO |
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01-27-11 | Miami Heat v. New York Knicks OVER 209 | Top | 88-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Miami at New York
We all know how the Knicks want to play, fast and furious. With a coach who is known for wanting to put the ball up in a hurry we can see the Knicks trying to out run the short handed Heat tonight. After all Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the league in half court stops and New York is at it's best when out in the open court. With Chris Bosh out of the lineup the Heat are going with a smaller cast. LeBron will move to power forward which adds more pure shooters to the lineup. That means more of a running attitude for the Heat. James has historically dominated at the Garden as the visiting player with the highest career scoring average. Both times he has faced New York this year he has produced triple doubles. Both teams know they will be at their best in the open court and Miami has had many high scoring games against the more running Western Conference. Out of all the teams in the East the Knicks more represent the Western Conference style than anyone, since the coach came from the Phoenix Suns. Look for a fast paced game with scoring easily surpassing the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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01-26-11 | San Diego St v. Brigham Young -5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
793/794 San Diego State at BYU
While we love this Steve Fisher coached team from San Diego they have never had any success playing in this venue. BYU is 11-2 straight up hosting the Aztecs and despite the length and athleticism of San Diego State they have no answer for the perimeter game of the Cougars. The last two times BYU faced the Aztecs they shot 46.7% and 42.9% from behind the arc. That expands the San Diego State defense and limits their real strength, rebounding the basketball. BYU won both meetings between these two last year and 4 of 5 the last two seasons. BYU is a perfect 9-0 straight up on this court and while they have fallen asleep here against lesser competition, that win not be the case tonight. San Diego State considers themselves to be an underrated squad in the national rankings, but the truth of the matter is that based on this line the linesmaker knows BYU is every bit as good as the Aztecs. Series history and home court edge are keys as BYU puts themselves on the national radar with an impressive home victory over the Top 4 rated Aztecs. PLAY BYU |
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01-24-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New Jersey Nets -8.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Cleveland at New Jersey
Cleveland is in the midst of playing ten road games in a 13 game stretch. Other than one set of back to back home games Cleveland has been a traveling circus. The Cavaliers are a terrible team that is even worse on the road. Injuries to key players have made this lineup variable each and every night. Because of that players do not have defined roles which makes backing Cleveland a rarity. Keep in mind that the majority of these players have won consistently before this year, in fact, the Cavaliers posted the best record in the NBA the last two seasons. With a thorough house cleaning sure to follow this season what type of motivation do these players have. New Jersey has lost five straight games to Cleveland including two games very early in November. This is a motivated team that has something to prove. It's also a team that now knows their roles and what is expected of them since the owner nixed the Carmelo Anthony trade. It's telling that since the announcement New Jersey has played much more inspired ball. The Nets beat Utah and Detroit each by double digits and took Dallas to the wire in a one point defeat. As opposed to the Cleveland travel situation New Jersey has been home since the 18th. It's rare that we will lay this type of number with a team like New Jersey, but this is a team on the way up while Cleveland is the worst team in the league with nothing to play for. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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01-22-11 | Boston Celtics v. Washington Wizards +7 | Top | 83-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Boston at Washington
The Celtics are traveling today to face the Wizards off an easy 110-86 win over Utah in Boston. We want no part of Boston here off a comfortable win and now installed as a road favorite. The Celtics are just 3-11 of a double digit victory to go along with a 3-7 spread mark playing without rest. Considering that Boston pounded the Wizards by 31 points in their only meeting this year, we simply can't see the Celtics being motivated here. Washington also played last night losing in embarrassing fashion on this court to the Suns 109-91. They had won their previous four home games in straight up fashion. With a very rough schedule on deck the Wizards could be in for a long losing streak with a loss tonight. We expect an all out effort from the more motivated host. Winning and covering on the road is not the easiest thing to do when unrested, especially with a veteran cast like the Celtics. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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01-21-11 | Sacramento Kings v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Sacramento at Golden State
The Kings are in a horrendous scheduling stretch where they are playing 7 of their last 8 games on the road. The Kings are just 3-15 straight up on the road this year and they have really struggled to match Golden State on the scoreboard as of late. The last three meetings have seen Sacramento shooting 39.0%, 42.2% and 38.0% against the Warriors. In the only meeting this season the Kings lost at home to Golden State by 8 points. While the Kings have been on an extended tour as of late the Warriors are enjoying a taste of home cooking. They are in the midst of 11 of 12 games played in the friendly confines of Oakland. Although friendly and Oakland are rarely spoke of in the same sentence it's a huge edge tonight for the Warriors. Golden State has won 5 of their last 7 games with the only losses coming against the Red Hot Clippers and the World Champion Lakers. This is a team staying under the radar right now but we expect to make a major run in the second half of the season. This is a cheap number for the much better team in a great scheduling situation. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |