Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-16 | Maryland v. Indiana -5 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
142 Maryland at Indiana This is just the second Big 10 road game of the season for the Terrapins. The first being a 38-14 loss at Penn State. Last year the only road conference win for Maryland was the season finale at Rutgers. Indiana has taken a great deal of money in the betting marketplace the last couple weeks in losses to Northwestern and Nebraska. The line movements were incorrect then, but in our opinion now is the time to back the host. Indiana has played a 6 point tougher schedule than Maryland and is sitting at a bargain price. The Hoosiers won at Maryland last year and we expect a double digit victory here. PLAY INDIANA |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest -5.5 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
132 Army at Wake Forest The Black Knights gained a lot of attention in knocking off Temple 28-13 as a 13 1/2 point underdog to start the season. But since then Army is 2-3 vs FBS competition with the only wins coming against Rice & UTEP. In fact, This team has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire FBS. How about facing North Texas, Duke, Buffalo, UTEP and Rice the past five FBS games. This team has dropped three straight ATS by a combined margin of 53 points. Army is an overrated squad right now in the betting markets. Wake Forest has beaten Army each of the last four seasons and has already faced an option team in Tulane in the season opener. The Demon Deacons are off a bye and have cashed 4 of 5 games heading into this clash. The last two games Wake held Florida State and Syracuse to a combined 26 points. This line is cheap based on the perceived improvement from Army. Keep in mind there is a huge strength of schedule edge here for the host as Wake Forest has played a 14 point tougher schedule than the Black Knights. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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10-29-16 | Duke v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
176 Duke at Georgia Tech Duke has won the last two meetings against the Yellow Jackets, but dropped ten straight before that. Duke is 2-4 SU on the season against FBS competition and have lost the yards per play battle in every single contest. That includes games against the likes of Virginia and Army. Many will talk about the effort against Louisville last time out for the Blue Devils. A 24-14 loss. But keep in mind the Cardinals outgunned Duke 7.7 to 4.0 in yards per play. Georgia Tech has a 3.3 explosive play per game advantage over Duke, and that is despite playing a tougher schedule. We get to take advantage of a weak team here, and the line is very cheap. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida -6.5 | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 53 m | Show | |
114 Navy at South Florida The Midshipmen have been a bit lucky scheduling wise as of late. After upsetting Houston the game at East Carolina was cancelled because of the hurricane flooding. That avoided a letdown situation. The team took advantage of the extra week off by beating Memphis on Saturday. Now with a possible lookahead to Notre Dame next week we have Navy taking to the road to face South Florida. Not only are the Bulls coming off an embarrassing 16 point loss at Temple, this team is playing with revenge for a 29-17 loss last year at Navy. Willie Taggart was stressing physicality in practice this week and we expect a supreme effort from the host. Quinton Flowers left the Temple game because of injury but he’s 100% this week according to the coaching staff. With a bye on deck for the host this game is a must win for USF. The Bulls have a 1.6 explosive plays per game advantage here despite having played a 2 1/2 point tougher schedule. This line is very cheap. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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10-27-16 | Akron v. Buffalo +17.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 46 m | Show | |
106 Akron at Buffalo Strong spot play here for the Bulls who are off a road trip to Northern Illinois and play on the road again next week at Ohio. The Buffalo offense has picked up the pace a bit as of late producing 229 and 199 offensive first half yards the past two games. The problem was a -4 turnover disadvantage in the first half last week against Northern Illinois. This Buffalo offense isn’t built to come from behind so the second half showing last week was a forgone conclusion. Akron on the other hand win play three games in a 12 day span. It beat Ball State on the road last week in a furious second half comeback. Next Wednesday the Zips host MAC powerhouse Toledo. In the meantime Akron heads to the road to play the lowly Bulls. This is easily the least important game for the Zips, but the most important in this three game stretch for the Bulls. Finally we have the advantage of line value. Last week Akron was a 3 1/2 point underdog at Ball State. Basically meaning the two teams are rated the same if you use a 3 point home field advantage. Just two weeks ago Buffalo was an 11 point home dog to Ball State, now the line as we write this is at 17 1/2. So in just a week or so Akron is being rated 6 1/2 points higher than Ball State. Woodson is back at QB for the Zips but the weather should play to the Bulls. The game is supposed to be played in the rain with winds from 10-20 mph. That should slow down the passing attack of Akron, leading to Buffalo making this a game. By the way, the Bulls have beaten Akron four straight times in UB Stadium. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-23-16 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 34-26 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 49 m | Show | |
466 Indianapolis at Tennessee Second of back to back road games for the Colts, coming off a no rest week against Chicago after playing in London. It’s the first time a team elected to play the game after traveling overseas and it could play a major factor here. Indy simply isn’t nearly as good as it has been since Andrew Luck took over. While it sits at 3-3 on the season, none of the wins came by more than six points. In fact, using yards per play Indianapolis has only won that battle once all season. Both meetings with the Titans last year were close, with Indy winning by margins of 2 and 3 points. The Titans get over the hump here. At 3-3 on the season this team has a real chance at reaching the playoffs for the first time in a long while. in yards per play Tennessee is 4-1-1 on the season. While the Colts have been traveling extensively, the Titans are home for the second of three straight games. Great spot for the host as Tennessee keeps the momentum going. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-23-16 | Raiders v. Jaguars -115 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
464 Oakland at Jacksonville Raiders enter this game at 4-2 on the season but have lost the cards per play battle in every single contest. The reason for the Oakland success has been a plus 5 turnover margin. While this team is a perfect 3-0 on the road, all victories came by a single point. This has been a very fortunate team in which we can take advantage. The Jags are 2-3 on the season but have won the yards per play battle in four of those five games. While the Raiders are +5 in TO’s the Jaguars are -5. That pretty much is the differential in records between these two. Jacksonville was right in there against Green Bay and Baltimore, with a very little amount of luck this team could be 4-1. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-22-16 | Wyoming v. Nevada +4.5 | 42-34 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
374 Wyoming at Nevada This game all comes down to buying low and selling high. Wyoming which has a huge home/road dichotomy, is off a satisfying home underdog win over Air Force followed by a bye. After beating Colorado State and Air Force you know this team is riding high and mighty with the week off. Nevada on the other hand has dropped 3 of 4 including a loss last week at lowly San Jose State. In that game the Wolf Pack held a 4.6 to 3.9 yards per play edge but were -2 in turnovers. Now with its own bye on deck it’s extremely important for Brian Polian and his crew to turn this season around. Before the season this line would have been around Nevada -12. So you can see how much perception of these two programs have changed. We look for the host to right the ship here and gain the outright victory. PLAY NEVADA |
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10-22-16 | Georgia Southern v. New Mexico State +14 | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
396 Georgia Southern at New Mexico State The Eagles are 2-3 SU vs FBS competition on the season and 1-4 ATS. It has been out gained in yards per play in 4 of 5 games. Yet for some reason Georgia Southern has been installed as a double digit road favorite. It’s also the fourth straight road game for the Eagles and third straight since its bye week. The Eagles also have to play on Thursday hosting Appalachian State in a revenge matchup. Needless to say this is a terrible spot for the visitor. New Mexico State is just 2-4 SU vs FBS competition but did beat another ground oriented attack in in-state rival New Mexico. Coming off an embarrassing 55-23 loss at Idaho after a bye, you can be assured Doug Martin and his crew will be fired up for this home battle. The Aggies are undefeated in Aggie Memorial Stadium this year and have double revenge against this opponent. When looking at explosive plays the Aggies are +0.5 per game while the Eagles are -2.0 on the season. Georgia Southern just doesn’t have the breakout backs it has had in prior seasons. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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10-22-16 | UTEP +9.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 70 h 30 m | Show | |
383 UTEP at UTSA The Miners went into the bye week having lost five straight games to the likes of Texas, Army and Louisiana Tech. UTEP is 5-2 ATS as of late coming off a bye and we expect Sean Kugler to have his teams full attention here. Especially considering that it has double revenge against this UTSA squad. The Roadrunners have taken a lot of money lately as Frank Wilson and his crew look to be on the upswing. But keep in mind despite victories the last two weeks the wins came against Southern Miss and Rice, two of the most disappointing teams in college football. UTSA still has problems protecting the quarterback and putting pressure on opposing signal callers. The Roadrunners are now -17 in sacks against FBS competition this season. This team doesn’t have the line play to lay this type of number. PLAY UTEP |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion +13.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -106 | 69 h 23 m | Show |
385 Old Dominion at Western Kentucky We’ve been very impressed by the job Bobby Wilder has done with the Monarchs. Three straight victories with the only FBS losses coming at Appalachian State at North Carolina State. With an extra week to prepare we look for Old Dominion to avenge two straight losses to the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the number in five straight games but it’s gone unnoticed because of a 3-3 straight up record. But this team could come in here a bit suggest after going to the wire against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt and Miami Ohio. All games decided by seven points or less including two contests involving a total of three overtimes. Now it’s homecoming week with the team knowing it has dispatched the Monarchs by 17 and 15 points the previous two years. When looking at explosive plays the visitor has the edge at +1.2 per game as opposed to a -0.5 for the host. This one is decided very late. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-22-16 | Purdue +24 v. Nebraska | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
329 Purdue at Nebraska Nice spot here for the Boilermakers who relieved head coach Darrell Hazell of his duties after a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. Hazel took over for Danny Hope before the 2013 season. In Hopes tenure the Boilermakers won 5, 4, 7 and 6 games. Under Hazell the team won 1, 3, 2 and have struggled against this season. But all is not lost in West Lafayette as this team has the talent to be competitive in this league. Especially in this spot against a Nebraska team that it has covered against the last two meetings. While the Cornhuskers are surely looking to avenge a 55-47 loss at Purdue last year, the scheduling spot is extremely rough. After a nip and tuck victory at Indiana a week ago the team has Wisconsin and Ohio State road games on deck. The Huskers have home loss revenge against the Badgers and Ohio State is the best team on its schedule. While the Huskers are undefeated straight up on the season, it’s just 4-2 in yards per play on the year. The Huskers have also gotten off to slow starts this season with its biggest halftime lead being 10 points hosting Wyoming. If the same thing happens here we can see the Purdue players gaining confidence which is what you can’t have with a favorite in this price range. PLAY PURDUE |
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10-22-16 | Ohio v. Kent State +3.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 43 m | Show |
362 Ohio at Kent State The Bobcats are 3-3 SU on the season against FBS competition with a turnover margin advantage of plus 9. As we know turnovers for the most part are random and therefore the Bobcats have been very fortunate. In fact, last week was the first time Ohio U lost the turnover battle and in turn lost the game outright to Eastern Michigan. This team is rated higher by the gambling community than anyone who has watched this team play. Kent State is 1-4 SU on the season but has covered 3 of 5 games against the FBS. The offense obviously struggled against Penn State and Alabama but has averaged over 28 ppg against league opponents. That’s far better than the 9.1 ppg the Golden Flashes averaged a year ago. Speaking of a year ago, Kent State is looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout at the hands of this Bobcat team in Athens. With this being just the second home game against FBS opposition we can see the team fired up to exact some revenge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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10-22-16 | Central Florida v. Connecticut +3.5 | 24-16 | Loss | -103 | 63 h 53 m | Show | |
360 Central Florida at Connecticut The Knights sure have been taking a lot of money lately. While we love the job Scott Frost has done in Orlando, we still feel too much credit is being given to this young team. Last week we went against them with Temple and were fortunate to cover, but we still have the Huskies favored here. Connecticut has beaten the Knights by 27 and 8 points the past two seasons, covering the spread by a combined 47 points. While the Knights are far better than a year ago, this was a 9-4 team in 2014. Simply put there hasn’t been nearly enough improvement in this Knights team to close the huge gap between these two the last couple meetings. Connecticut isn’t pretty as the offense is pedestrian, but this defense has been solid. Just 2-4 on the season vs FBS competition this team remains under the radar. The Huskies are 6-3 SU at home the past two years with the loses coming to Navy, South Florida and a Syracuse team that just upset Virginia Tech. The Knights aren’t in that category as of yet. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-16-16 | Rams v. Lions -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
264 Los Angeles at Detroit The Rams and Giants travel to London next week. Teams that have that trip on deck have been a terrible pointspread proposition. In fact, Los Angeles in taking off from Detroit instead of returning back home. Football teams are a regimented group. Doing things exactly the same every day of the week during the season. A travel situation like this is sure to mess up your weekly flow of energy. The Rams haven’t spent two weeks at home the entire season up to this point and won’t until back to back home games hosting San Francisco and Arizona to end the regular season. The Rams have lost the yards per play stat in every game played this season. Unlike the visitor the Lions are home for the second of three straight weeks. Detroit is 8–3-2 ATS under Jim Caldwell as a home favorite. The Rams will get the full attention on the Lions here in a great scheduling spot for the host. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-15-16 | Temple +4 v. Central Florida | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Connecticut +20 v. South Florida | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina +7 v. Miami (Fla) | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
139 North Carolina at Miami Florida Last week the Tar Heels played in a quagmire with Hurricane Matthew blowing into town. For a team that passes as much as North Carolina the hurricane made them quite one dimensional. Now we see an overreaction in the line as the betting public has written off this club. The same team who won outright at Florida State just two weeks ago. The same Florida State team who just beat this Miami squad in Miami. The Hurricanes finally played a decent team last week and lost at home. Before that Miami had faced Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State and Georgia Tech. North Carolina has faced the likes of Georgia, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Mark Richt is doing a fine job in Coral Gables but this team isn’t yet to the level to lay a touchdown against a team of North Carolina’s stature. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-15-16 | Ball State v. Buffalo +10.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 6 m | Show |
122 Ball State at Buffalo The Cardinals are 2-3 straight up against FBS competition and haven’t been favored by double digits in ten games. The last time the Cardinals were such a big favorite it lost outright to Georgia State, failing to cover the spread by 25 points. When we break down explosive plays we find the host having the better numbers than this high priced road favorite. Buffalo is 1-3 vs FBS competition and are off back to back blowouts to Kent State and Boston College. But this line movement is too extreme as Kent State was favored by just 3 points last week. We only rate Ball State three points better than the Golden Flashes. So we are getting an additional four points here with a fired up home dog looking to make amends. An outright upset wouldn’t surprise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-15-16 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Ohio | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ohio U Been very impressed with the job Craig Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan this season. Since 2009 this team had been 15-69 and the laughingstock of the MAC. But this year his Eagles have been very competitive with a 3-2 SU record against FBS competition. What’s been especially good is that transpired despite a -4 turnover disadvantage. The last four games when looking at yards per play the Eagles have held their own. +1.9 ypp against Charlotte, +1.5 vs Wyoming, +1.2 against Bowling Green and were only outgunned by 20 point favorite Toledo by 0.2 yards per play. Ohio U is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS vs FBS opposition. But keep in mind that this team has a turnover advantage of +10 and a sack advantage of +17 on the year. Teams that dominate those two stats should be much more successful. Coming off unimpressive victories over Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we can clearly see the sell sign on the Bobcats. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-15-16 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Georgia | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
179 Vanderbilt at Georgia Second straight road game for the Commodores who are off a 20-13 loss at Kentucky. But teams who fail to cover in the first game of a back to back are an excellent play the following week. We saw this earlier in the season as the Commodores won outright at Western Kentucky after failing at Georgia Tech. That makes Vandy 5-0 ATS in that situation the last five years. Despite dropping game at Kentucky and Florida the past two weeks the Commodores beat both teams in yards per play. Georgia enters this game 3-2 SU against FBS members. Beating North Carolina by 9, Missouri by a single point and South Carolina by 14 when running back the onside kick at games end last week. We just haven’t seen enough out of this Georgia team to lay this type of number. Our explosive play chart rates Vandy much higher than the Bulldogs. Tough to lay this big of number without long touchdowns. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7 v. BYU | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 36 h 33 m | Show | |
111 Mississippi State at BYU The Bulldogs are off a complete embarrassment last week at the hands of Auburn. That came after a bye week which really makes it bad for coach Dan Mullen. So we expect a major rebound from a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years. The last three seasons State is 10-4 ATS off a straight up loss. BYU on the other hand played five straight nail biter games decided by a field goal or less, and are off a 31-14 upset victory at Michigan State. With a Thursday night game against rival Boise State on deck, we can see the Cougars not being 100% focused here. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
456 New England at Cleveland The day has finally arrived when Tom Brady returns to the field and leads the Patriots to the Super Bowl. While that does have a nice ring to it, chances are he will be a bit rusty coming out of the gate. He hasn’t been able to attend team functions during this suspension, so no doubt he will be a bit behind where he normally would be. And that will be especially true in the first half on Sunday. Cleveland has played much better than its record especially in the first half where the Browns have actually outscored the opposition. Cleveland has the ground game to shorten this contest which makes the QB edge for New England slightly less than normal. This is just the second home game of the season for Cleveland and we expect the Browns to be a feisty bunch on Sunday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
462 Philadelphia at Detroit The Eagles had the legitimizer game right before the week off as they crushed the Steelers 34-3. You know this team is living high on the hog the past two weeks savoring its success. But turnovers have been a big part of that 3-0 record with a +6 turnover margin. Now the team takes to the road to play a Detroit team coming off three straight losses. The Lions are 11-6 straight up at home as of late with just three of those losses coming by more than a field goal. While Philly is fat and happy this is a must win situation for the host. We expect the Lions to get it done as the Eagles come in overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | Top | 70-21 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
386 Washington at Oregon Coming into this season we were already aware of how good this Washington team would be, along with the expected drop-off of the Ducks. Yet all three of our power ratings made Oregon a 1 1/2 point favorite in this game. So what has happened this season to make this game 11 points higher? Virtually nothing other than a nationally televised blowout win over Stanford. A Cardinal team that had just beaten USC and UCLA the previous two weeks before taking on the Huskies on a short week. We take nothing away from this Washington team but keep in mind it had to go to overtime to beat Arizona the prior week. Oregon enters this game on a three game losing streak, dropping contests to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State, three bowl worthy opponents. Over the last 10+ years the Ducks are 61-10 straight up in Autzen Stadium. Oregon enters this contest knowing it has beaten the Huskies 12 straight games, yet is installed as a sizable home underdog. This team has been a home dog just twice in this last decade plus. Winning both games outright and covering the spread by a whopping combined margin of 74 1/2 points! PLAY OREGON |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
321 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan It’s a huge matchup of series history against current form. Northern Illinois has beaten Western Michigan seven straight times with the closest outcome being by 7 points. Western Michigan on the other hand have beaten the likes of Northwestern, Illinois and Central Michigan. PJ Fleck is a highly sought after coach who will likely be offered the Purdue job at years end. But this is not a very good spot for the Broncos. Last weeks blowout of Central Michigan was the legitimizer win for this program. After winning eight games each of the last two years the Broncos are now on the edge of the Top 25, and are talked about being a possible undefeated squad. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves Western Michigan fans, keep in mind you are +9 in turnover margin against FBS competition. In fact, the Broncos haven’t turned the ball over all season. That type of luck isn’t likely to continue as this team, coming into this season, were -4 in turnovers in the first three years of the PJ Fleck era. Northern Illinois is 1-4 on the season but a perfect 1-0 in MAC action. Losses at Wyoming in altitude, along with defeats at South Florida and San Diego State are excusable. Both those teams are Top 30 worthy. This is a veteran team with 58 lettermen returning along with a starting quarterback who transferred in from Western Michigan. That knowledge of the system can only help the Huskies. While Western is the clearly better team in the public eye, Northern Illinois knows how to beat this team. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-08-16 | Purdue +10.5 v. Illinois | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show | |
345 Purdue at Illinois Before the season we lined this game at Illinois by a touchdown, the line is now more than three points higher. Why? Because Purdue can’t hold onto the football. In the three FBS games the Boilermakers are -8 in turnover margin. You would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Purdue program with that type of turnover luck. The years prior to and afterward they had a +11 and +12 turnover margin. What we are trying to explain is there is a great deal of luck when predicting turnover margin, and we expect some regression. Purdue has major revenge with the Illini from a 48-14 home loss a year ago. Before you make the case that this team has a lot of revenge situations lately, let me explain. The prior meetings in this series were decided by 11, 4, 3 and 7 points. With Purdue winning 3 of those 4 games and the lone loss coming by four points. Against FBS competition Illinois has scored 23 against North Carolina, 10 against Western Michigan and 16 against Nebraska. That’s just over 16 points per game without playing any elite defenses. Tough to lay double digits in a close series when you can’t put a lot of points on the board. PLAY PURDUE |
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10-08-16 | Texas State +10.5 v. Georgia State | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 42 m | Show | |
363 Texas State at Georgia State The Bobcats have won 2 of the 3 meetings against the Panthers, yet they have been installed as a sizable underdog. This is a team that has already faced the likes of Arkansas and Houston and beat Ohio U on the road. Everett Withers has this team believing in itself and after facing an FCS club last week will be well prepared to avenge that 41-19 home loss a year ago as a favorite. Since becoming at FBS program in 2011 the Panthers have produced a 6-26 straight up record at home. How many games has this team won in this building by double digits? Just twice against South Alabama and Troy, with the largest victory being 14 points. So you are asking a very poor home team with a minimal home field advantage to do something it rarely does, win by margin. Georgia State has played four games this season, scoring 21, 14, 17 and 3 points. That’s an average of just over 11 points per game. Very close to the current line in this contest. Tough to lay doubles when you yourself can’t put points on the board. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State +1.5 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 34 m | Show | |
328 Maryland at Penn State The Terrapins are getting a lot of love right now with the line moving them to the favorite in this game. But while we like what DJ Durkin has done with this team, the excitement for this program doesn’t match the talent. The Terrapins have played Howard, Florida International, Central Florida and Purdue. The best of the bunch is a UCF team that also has a new coach and is going through a system change. While Maryland was able to beat the Knights 30-24 it was helped along by a +4 turnover advantage. The other teams have not been impressive in any way this season. Now Maryland is expect to beat Penn State outright in Happy Valley. Penn State is far more tested with games against Pittsburgh, Temple, Michigan and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions won 2 of those 4 contests with only the loss at Michigan being non-competitive. Penn State as a program isn’t where it used to be, but it’s still further along than Maryland. Before the season started we made Penn State a two touchdown favorite here, there has not been a 14 point change between these two programs thus far. PLAY PENN STATE |
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10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -104 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
316 Boise State at New Mexico Many will look towards the revenge angle in this one as Boise State was shocked 31-24 last year, losing as a 31 point favorite. But a quick look at history shows that the Broncos have a terrible time against the option. When going against Air Force and New Mexico the past five years Boise State is 6-3 straight up but 0-9 ATS. In fact those spread losses have been by margins of 18, 38, 8, 27, 9, 1.5, 22.5, 3.5 and 18. That’s over 16 points per game against the spread. The Broncos played Utah State last week so it has no extra time to practice for the option. Bob Davie has done a tremendous job here in Albuquerque since taking over the program in 2012. After consecutive single win seasons from 2009 thru 2011 this club has posted win totals of 4, 3, 4 and 7 the past four seasons. That may not sound overly impressive to most, but people in the know are well aware of his coaching ability. An outright upset here would really not be out of the realm of possibility. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
312 Clemson at Boston College Obvious letdown spot here for the Tigers off that huge victory over Louisville on national television and it doesn’t help that next week they host NC State for homecoming. This Clemson offense isn’t nearly as potent as a year ago and this will be the best defense these Tigers have faced this season. Keep in mind the last three seasons Clemson has won by margins of 17, 4 and 10 points while averaging just 25 points per contest. It’s hard to lay 17 in a game in which you have only been able to score 25. This Clemson team only has 3 more explosive plays than they have allowed on the season. That includes games against Troy, South Carolina State and Georgia Tech. Boston College is not a potent offense but it has averaged just short of 15 ppg the last three meetings. It’s the third straight home game for the Eagles which have a bye on deck. The last time BC has been a double digit home dog was in 2014 against #9 USC, the Eagles won that game outright 37-31. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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10-06-16 | Temple +9.5 v. Memphis | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 6 m | Show | |
305 Temple at Memphis Surprised by the high line here as Temple has been an excellent 10-4 ATS when installed as a road underdog. The Owls have had its way against the Tigers winning by 19 last year in a 21 1/2 point cover. Cashing by 4 1/2 the previous year, and winning by 20 in 2013 in a 28 point cover. Temple is a team that doesn’t make mistakes and has won 13 of its last 19 games straight up. Memphis looked great against the likes of SE Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green. But the team stepped up in class against Ole Miss last week and lost by 20. The offensive line continues to struggle as the QB was under pressure all game. Memphis won 10 and 9 games the last two years under Justin Fuente and Paxton Lynch, but despite the early blowouts this team isn’t nearly as good. If the Tigers couldn’t cover against Temple with those two, we can’t see them distancing themselves from the Owls here. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +8.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
302 Georgia Southern at Arkansas State Money continues to pour in on Georgia Southern but is that really sharp money? Sure the Eagles have the better record and the stats show them to be the superior team, but take a look at the schedules. Georgia Southern has played Savannah State, South Alabama, Louisiana Monroe and Western Michigan. When stepping up in class to play the Broncos this team lost by 18 and had a -4 turnover disadvantage. Arkansas State on the other hand faced Toledo, Auburn, Utah State and Central Arkansas. The FCS loss to Central Arkansas is a major reason why this line is high, but teams off a loss to a lower division squad are teams we want to back the following game. The Red Wolves have won 7 games or better each of the last five years. In that time frame they have been home dogs just three times. With this being the first conference game for the Red Wolves the team can still reach the goal of winning the Sun Belt Conference. It’s a new season for Arkansas State and a nationally televised game in Jonesboro is just the ticket to get this bad taste out of the players mouths. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -3 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
276 Kansas City at Pittsburgh We like to not only power rate teams based on total game performances, but also first half play which is a truer indication of team strength. In the first half Kansas City is being outscored 37-23 with a +1 turnover advantage. The Chiefs have been outgunned by 2.4, 0.9 and 0.8 yards per play in the first half. This is a squad that overall has lost the sack battle by two in each game, despite the fact that the Chiefs don’t throw the ball downfield. Pittsburgh is off an embarrassing lost to instate rival Philadelphia. The weakness in the Steeler defense is throws of 15 or more yards in the air. Kansas City simply doesn’t throw the ball long as its a dink and dunk passing game. We look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a strong home field and win this by double digits. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3.5 | 27-7 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
268 Denver at Tampa Bay Now that the line has risen above a field goal its time to step in with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a home underdog. This team is in a must win situation and this contest is much more important to the host. At 1-2 on the season and a trip to Carolina on deck Tampa cannot afford to lose this contest. Turnovers have hurt the Bucs thus far and are a concern here against this aggressive Denver defense, but they have outgunned 2 of 3 opponents in yards per play. Denver is a perfect 3-0 on the season and go on the road for the second straight week. With a nice lead in the division we can see Denver underperforming here. Keep in mind the Broncos are playing a non-conference affair which is the lowest priority games on the NFL schedule. This line is saying that the Broncos are a 6 point better team on a neutral field. That’s a bit much, especially considering the situation for the host. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 46 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 24 m | Show | |
253 Cleveland at Washington Nothing wrong with this Browns offense regardless of who is behind center. Against pretty good defenses in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Miami the Browns have produced 5.8, 6.6 and 5.8 yards per play. The problem has been a Browns defense which has yielded 29, 25 and 30 points the first three weeks. Like Cleveland the Washington offense remains fine with 7.0, 6.6 and 5.9 ypp in the first three games. The problems are a sieve of a defense permitting 38, 27 and 27 points. Right now this Cleveland offense is under the radar based on past history and the turnover at quarterback. We use that to our advantage in this likely high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
264 Tennessee at Houston We’ve waited all week as the public has gotten involved in this one pushing the line way below where it should have been. This game should have been lined around a touchdown but with the news of JJ Watt possibly being lost for the season the line has dropped roughly 3 points. In his prime Watt was worth about 1 1/2 points to the spread. He has been injured all year with a back problem and the analytics show he has been a below average NFL player this season. So we get a 3 point line movement on a team that should be even better just by not having the injured player on the field. Houston is off an embarrassing 27-0 shutout loss on national television last Thursday. The Texans have two full days to prepare and it has owned the Titans as of late. Winning by margins of 28, 14, 24 and 14 points the last two seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS as a divisional road dog under Mike Mularkey. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-01-16 | Oregon v. Washington State +2.5 | Top | 33-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
216 Oregon at Washington State This Oregon program is on the decline under Mark Helfrich. His teams performed well in 2013 and 2014 with the Chip Kelly recruits. But last year the Ducks broke a streak of 7 straight seasons of double digit victories with a 9-4 record including losing its bowl game. The last two weeks the Ducks lost to both Nebraska and Colorado despite winning the turnover battle in each game, which is hard to do. Washington State and Mike Leach has played Oregon tough over the years. The last five games the Cougars have covered by margins of 23 1/2, 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2 and 20 points. Last year Washington State won in straight up fashion in Eugene. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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10-01-16 | Memphis v. Ole Miss -14.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
116 Memphis at Mississippi The Tigers have been impressive thus far with dominate wins over SE M and Bowling Green. But the first win came against an FCS team and the Jayhawks and Falcons are two of the weaker teams in the FBS this season. That said, Mike Norvell has inherited a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years with Justin Fuente at the helm and Paxton Lynch behind center. Mississippi has had this game circled after losing at Memphis last year 37-24 as a 10 1/2 point road favorite. While Memphis has played a very weak schedule Ole Miss has taken on the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Florida State. Under Hugh Freeze the Rebels are 14-7-1 when installed as home favorites and the team has a bye week on deck. We look for an inspired effort from the host as the step up in defenses faced for Memphis will be too much to overcome. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-01-16 | Akron v. Kent State +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
154 Akron at Kent State Tough to lay points on the road in a rivalry game when your defense is allowing 577.7 yards per game the last three contests. Akron hasn’t beaten the Golden Flashes in regulation the past five times here. The only victory was a double overtime 30-27 win here in 2008. In three games against FBS competition the Zips have permitted 45, 38 and 54 points. No way this team should be a touchdown favorite. Due to injuries the Golden Flashes are down to its third string quarterback, but like the Cleveland Browns last week the drop-off is virtually nonexistent. Kent is coming off a physical Alabama game last week but the two previous contests were vs FCS squads. Kent is also playing with shutout revenge for a 20-0 defeat last year at Akron. In two FBS games Kent has played at Penn State and Alabama, the drop-off in defensive faced is huge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-30-16 | Toledo v. BYU -3.5 | 53-55 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 21 m | Show | |
108 Toledo at BYU We made this line before the season as BYU -7 1/2, and can’t figure out why it’s moved over a field goal. Toledo is a team we really like in the MAC but they have yet to be tested. Wins against Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State isn’t enough to prepare you for BYU off a rare home loss in altitude. The Rockets rarely travel west of the Mississippi and haven’t done well in that regard the past 20 years. BYU has already faced Arizona, Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, they are very well tested. The UCLA game was the only contest played at home this season. With Michigan State on deck the Cougars need a satisfying win and we believe they get it. While Toledo has the speed edge the Cougars have a huge edge in the trenches. PLAY BYU |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
487 Chicago at Dallas The injury to Jay Cutler is a positive as Brian Hoyer is equal or better than the troubled Bears starter. In fact, his teammates have never been a fan of Cutler so we should see an added focus for Hoyer. Dallas has been a very poor team at home posting a 1-8 straight up mark at the Jerry Dome. Underdogs in Cowboys games have been golden the past few seasons as points seem to be at a premium. Dallas is a public team, and after the terrible Monday Night Football performances from the Bears, value is on Chicago. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-25-16 | Browns +10 v. Dolphins | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
469 Cleveland at Miami Nobody wants any part of the Browns right now and there is even talk of Cleveland going winless. But keep in mind the Browns had a better yards per play average in both games against Philadelphia and Baltimore. The drop-off at quarterback from RGIII and McCown to Kessler is out eyes is very minimal. We’ve already seen rookie QBs have success the past couple years, and we see no reason why Kessler can’t keep the Browns competitive. Miami has one of the weakest home field advantages in the NFL, and how many times do you see an 0-2 team laying this type of number? This goes down to the wire. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-25-16 | Vikings +7 v. Panthers | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
476 Minnesota at Carolina Carolina struggled offensively the last two games against Denver, and we rate this Minnesota team just as strongly defensively. Minnesota has been on quite the pointspread run as the winning has continued into the 2016 season. Despite the loss of their top running back who is out a few games at the minimum, we are fine with the other Minnesota runners. Bradford has been solid as a replacement at quarterback and we just don’t see a lot of difference in our power ratings between these two teams. A touchdown is just too much to lay into this Minnesota defense. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +9 v. Baylor | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
349 Oklahoma State at Baylor The Cowboys have been tested with back to back games against Central Michigan and Pittsburgh. This is a team that is on a 6-3 run as road dogs and well remembers last years meeting hosting the Bears. Oklahoma State was ranked #4 in the country and were knocked off by Baylor 45-35 at home. That led to a three game losing streak to end the season after such a promising start. This game has been circled by the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has won six straight outright on the road including wins at Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. Unlike the Cowboys Baylor has cruised this season against some of the worst teams in college football. Wins over Northwestern State, SMU and Rice doesn’t prepare you for Big 12 play. While the Baylor defense has been fine the offense produced just 5.2 yards per play against SMU and 6.6 vs Rice. The big play ability in past seasons doesn’t seem to be there this season in Waco. Too many points to give a Cowboys team that has revenge on its mind. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-24-16 | Florida +6.5 v. Tennessee | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
383 Florida at Tennessee It’s not often that a team has lost 11 straight in a series is installed as a touchdown favorite. Especially since the Volunteers have majorly underperformed this year while this weeks opposition has been outstanding. In three games this season Tennessee has lost the yards per play battle 4.4 to 4.3 against Appalachian State, and 5.3 to 4.9 against Virginia Tech. Last week the team did outperform Ohio 5.9 to 4.2 but only won by 9 as a 27 1/2 point favorite. While this is the first road game of the season for Florida, last year under Jim McElwain the Gators went 3-1 SU on the road with the only loss being by 7 at #6 LSU. Florida is down to its second string QB this week but Appleby had plenty of experience at Purdue before transferring. The best unit on the field is the Florida defense which is already +15 sacks on the season. A major advantage this week against a Tennessee offensive line which has struggled. We look for the Gators to extend this winning streak to 12 with an outright win in Knoxville. PLAY FLORIDA |
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09-24-16 | Miami (OH) +17 v. Cincinnati | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 19 m | Show |
375 Miami Ohio at Cincinnati Terrible scheduling situation for the host who played Houston on National Television last week and have major revenge against South Florida on deck. USF led Cincy 51-3 at halftime in what would become an embarrassing 65-27 loss. The Bearcats have dominated this one way rivalry series winning ten straight. We can’t see them getting up to play this lesser MAC team. Miami on the other hand is much improved this year and has already faced the likes of Iowa and Western Kentucky, two spread covering contests. While conference action starts next week as the Redhawks host Ohio, this game has more meaning to the players. A win over their close rival would build major confidence heading into MAC action. Under Chuck Martin Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog and they have enough talent to take this one to the wire. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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09-24-16 | Iowa -12.5 v. Rutgers | 14-7 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 59 m | Show | |
325 Iowa at Rutgers The Hawkeyes lost as a two touchdown favorite last week to an excellent FCS team in North Dakota State. But we expect a big bounce back here from Kirk Ferentz and his crew. Iowa is 24–13-1 ATS off a straight up loss the past nine years. The Hawkeyes have also been a terrific road favorite cashing ten straight in that role. Iowa has been an outstanding 12-3 straight up on the road the past 3+ years and Rutgers doesn’t have much of a home field advantage. Iowa is a physical team that can dominate this thin Rutgers squad as the game goes on. Rutgers has played two FBS teams thus far losing the yards per play stat by 2.9 to Washington and by 0.2 to New Mexico at home last week. A Lobos team who prefers to run the football as opposed to beating you through the air. The Scarlet Knights are on a 1-7 straight up run in conference play with the lone victory coming against Indiana by 3 points. With only Northwestern on deck there is absolutely no lookahead for the Hawkeyes who have beaten the Wildcats by 30 and 41 points the past two years. PLAY IOWA |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
310 USC at Utah The Trojans continue to struggle against physical teams as they have now lost eight straight games to Stanford. Utah and Stanford are the two most physical teams in the conference and USC must play them back to back on a short week. The Trojans haven’t been a good road underdog over the years posting a 3-7 spread mark the last five years. USC has failed to cover in Utah since the Utes joined the PAC 12. QB Sam Darnold is making his first start for the Trojans, he is the more mobile signal caller which is needed against this relentless pass rush of Utah. In two FBS games the Utes have a +9 margin in sacks as this team was all over the offenses of BYU and San Jose State. Holding those teams to just 18 points per game. This contest has special meaning for the Utes as these two squared off last year with Utah ranked #3 at the time. That loss at USC set the tone for a total collapse by this squad as Utah dropped 3 of 6 to end the regular season. We know Kyle Whittingham will remind his team of that situation. Big coaching edge here for Utah as the Utes gain revenge against a struggling Trojan squad. PLAY UTAH |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 81 h 4 m | Show |
290 Philadelphia at ChicagoFirst road start for rookie Carson Wentz who was fortunate to play the weak Cleveland defense opening week. We have the Eagles as one of the four worst teams in the NFL and it will be proven out on Monday Night.The Bears were right in that game last week until late, and we feel this team is being underrated. Already off a loss and with this being a very winnable game we will back the host here. Chicago is a much better team and the current line is very short.PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams +6.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 50 m | Show | |
280 Seattle at Los AngelesWith Wilson injuring his ankle last week we have a nice overlay here on the home dog. The Seattle offensive line is really struggling right now and its major success has been the mobility of the QB. Without him at full health this offense isn’t nearly where it was last year.First regular season home game for the Rams who are off an embarrassing performance Monday Night. Coach Fisher and his team matches up very well with the Seahawks winning 3 of the last 4 meetings. This line is too high to not take the home dog.PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
268 Baltimore at Cleveland Major overreaction here as the Browns likely will be a better offense with McCown behind center. This team has the receivers to stretch the field and keep this team competitive. We simply can’t trust Joe Flacco in the role of sizable road favorite here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-17-16 | Texas State +31 v. Arkansas | 3-42 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 17 m | Show | |
161 Texas State at Arkansas The Bobcats of Texas State really impressed us opening week as we had them plus the points vs Ohio U. This team showed a fight we had not seen out of the Bobcats in previous seasons. Everett Withers has a solid background of coaching success in the FCS, FBS and the NFL. He has brought a new energy to this program and we expect his former success to translate well here. Off an upset victory and a bye week these kids are excited to continue this renewed season. Arkansas is off the overtime win at TCU with Texas A&M revenge on deck next week in the Jerry Dome. The Razorbacks have dropped four straight to the Aggies so you know that game has been circled. But while Arkansas is 2-0 on the season the stats tell a different story. The Razorbacks were outgained in yards per play against Louisiana Tech 5.1 to 4.1 and against vs TCU 6.2 to 5.5. While its true the Razorbacks like to run the football, those numbers are still alarming. Especially for a favorite in this point range in a clear sandwich spot on the Razorback schedule. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-17-16 | Navy -5.5 v. Tulane | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
199 Navy at Tulane Last week QB Worth got his first start after Tago Smith was lost to injury in the opener against Fordham. Worth moved the club pretty well in his first action and should continue to improve with more time on the field. The Midshipmen have been very good on the road with six straight seasons of positive ATS marks. Navy beat Tulane last year 31-14 as a 23 1/2 point favorite. Tulane has gotten off to a great start with Willie Fritz with wins over Wake Forest and Southern. But keep in mind weather was a factor against the Demon Deacons and Southern is an FCS entrant. This is still a program that entered the year off 9 losing seasons the past 10, with a combined 34-88 record. Fritz has changed the offense to a spread option here after coming over from Georgia Southern, but these players weren’t recruited for this type of offense. Considering that Navy is years ahead of Tulane in running this offense you have to expect the Midshipmen to have a sizable advantage. PLAY NAVY |
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09-17-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Charlotte +3 | 37-19 | Loss | -104 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
112 Eastern Michigan at Charlotte The Eagles are 8-60 over the last decade plus when playing on the road. Currently winning just one of the last 21 contests away from Ypsilanti. The last four seasons the Eagles have posted a combined 7-41 overall record heading into 2016. Suspended QB Brogan Roback is coming back this week which is a major reason why money has come in on Eastern Michigan. The same starting QB who led them to a 1-11 record last year. Against Missouri the Eagles were outgunned 8.3 to 5.0 yards per play. We are not buying in on any improvements in this program. Charlotte was blown out by Louisville opening night in front of the entire nation. The 49ers then took care of FCS entrant Elon. But this is an improved team under Brad Lambert in his fourth year here. It’s already on a similar level as this Eagles team. We would much rather trust the fired up home team to get the job done here. Wrong team favored. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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09-17-16 | South Florida v. Syracuse +14.5 | 45-20 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
150 South Florida at Syracuse Don’t read too much into that South Florida blowout of Northern Illinois last week. The Huskies were coming off an overtime contest in the altitude of Wyoming and then had to travel down to the heat and humidity of Tampa. In addition the Huskies lost its starting quarterback to injury in that contest. USF beat Syracuse at home last year by 21 points and have a huge instate game against Florida State on deck. Last Friday Syracuse hosted Louisville on prime time television. While the final verdict got out of hand we like the job Dino Babers is doing here. The line on that game jumped to Louisville -17 which is in the same ballpark as this contest with South Florida. But while the Bulls are a very good team there is no way this squad is in the same category as Florida State, Louisville and Clemson. With the major lookahead for South Florida the Orangemen will take this one to the wire. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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09-17-16 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +11.5 | 48-43 | Win | 100 | 68 h 21 m | Show | |
194 Alabama at Mississippi The Crimson Tide’s stock couldn’t be higher going in to this double revenge situation at Mississippi. As in the stock market you want to buy low and sell high and we are looking to sell on this Alabama team. Don’t take this the wrong way, this is an excellent team but this line is way out of whack based on recent meetings. Alabama gave 6 1/2 to Ole Miss last year at home while laying just 4 1/2 two years ago on this field. Alabama lost those games outright by a combined 23 points against the spread. Mississippi was just catching 4 1/2 on a neutral field against Florida State. A team we rank right behind Alabama in our power ratings. So if that opening game would have been played at home the Rebels would have been getting roughly 1 point against Florida State. Simply put there is no way in hell that the Crimson Tide is 10 points better than Florida State. This line is completely out of whack and we will side with an excellent Huge Freeze in a home underdog role. 5-2 ATS in that situation at Mississippi. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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09-17-16 | Akron +17.5 v. Marshall | Top | 65-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 23 m | Show |
165 Akron at Marshall Classic overreaction here as the Zips were heavily bet last week only to be blown out at Wisconsin. The line went from +25 to +21 1/2 at close and the Zips were never in the game. But Terry Bowden and the Zips are always a dangerous road dog and because of last week this line is highly inflated. Akron has won 6 of its last 7 games dating back to last year. Bowden always brings in high quality transfers, so despite bringing back only 7 starters this year the team has talent. As opposed to the Zips, Marshall has played just one game this year, a blowout of Morgan State. The team has back to back huge recruiting rivalry games on deck against Louisville and Pittsburgh. Because of last week’s results this line is at least 4 points higher than it should be, the lookahead for the Thundering Herd adds to our advantage. PLAY AKRON |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7 | Top | 40-16 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 54 m | Show |
104 Houston at Cincinnati The Cougars shocked Oklahoma in the opener 33-23 and made a major jump up in the standings. Last week without injured QB Greg Ward the team beat Lamar in a non-covering victory. While we agree this is talented team, there is no way this team should be a touchdown favorite here. First off in the win vs Oklahoma the Sooners won the yards per play battle 6.0 to 5.0. This is a team traveling on a short week to play on ESPN against a divisional rival. The last three years Houston won at home by 3, lost at Cincinnati by 7 and lost at home to Cincinnati by 7. The Cougars were a combined 29-11 the last three years but just 1-2 vs the Bearcats. Cincinnati dominated a Big 10 team on the road last week winning by 18 over Purdue. In the last decade this team is 8-2 ATS as a home dog, winning outright the past two occurrences. This is the biggest game of the season for the host. The fans will be primed and we expect this game to come down to the wire. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-11-16 | Lions v. Colts OVER 50 | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
475 Detroit at Indianapolis Jim Bob Cooter. Not only do we love saying his name the Lions offense took off once he was able to take control after the bye week last season. The Lions averaged 26.1 ppg with Cooter and company calling the plays. With the loss of Calvin Johnson this offense is being dismissed. We feel there will be more value by spreading the ball around. The offensive line looks better but the defense still has concerns. Indy struggled in the preseason and everyone is worried about an offense that looks to be declining. We don’t buy it as the preseason has very little in common with the regular season. While the team did drop from 28.6 ppg to 20.8 keep in mind Luck only played in seven games. With both teams being domed squads and this being a non-conference affair, we look for a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
463 San Diego at Kansas City While we are well aware that the Chargers scored 3, 3 and 7 the last three meetings with the Chiefs, this team is coming in severely underrated this season. The last two years the Chargers ranked 31st and 27th in games lost to injury. The team was just 3-9 in one score games. San Diego finished negatively in turnover margin and sack margin. All this adds up to a solid regression candidate in San Diego. Covering the last decade as a divisional road underdog the Chargers are 10-2-1 against the spread. This is by far the best role for the Chargers. Kansas City rarely throws the ball downfield, ranking last in the NFL a year ago in throwing the ball 15 yards or greater. That really hurts this team in stretching the field. As opposed to the Chargers, Kansas City finished with positive numbers in turnovers and sacks. It was also 5-3 in one score games. We will take the points in this divisional battle. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
467 Chicago at Houston We love to go against public perception in the opening week and in this contest we attack it on two fronts. First off we have heard nothing but poor reviews for this Bears team this season. Keep in mind the Bears offense faced the 2nd toughest ranking of defenses last year. The team has finished 28th and 27th in the league in games lost to injury the past two seasons. Those negative expectations help us here as the pointspread doesn’t relate to the true levels of these programs. Houston made a terrible money call in signing the questionable Brock Osweiler to a $72 million deal. He struggles passing the ball long and is exactly the same type of quarterback the Texans have had the past few seasons. Spending all that money on a mediocre QB leaves the rest of the team without depth. Houston had positive ratios in turnovers and sacks last year. But keep in mind that the first two seasons in Houston Bill O’Brien’s teams went just 9-7 and 9-7. This despite playing in the weakest division in the league. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-10-16 | Virginia +24.5 v. Oregon | 26-44 | Win | 100 | 82 h 44 m | Show | |
361 Virginia at Oregon Don’t give up on the Cavaliers after just one game. The Richmond Spiders are a very good FCS program. It was the first game in the Bronco Mendenhall tenure and the future continues to look bright. Mendenhall raved about the new QB who put up excellent stats. A big problem for the Cavaliers was lost fumbles including two by Taquan Mizzell who went through the entire training camp without taking hits. The coach admitted that the lack of pad on pad work contributed to the fumbles. He also pointed out that he would be simplifying the defense this week as he gave his young team too much to worry about in the opener. Keep in mind that Mendenhall has always been an excellent underdog from his days at BYU. His teams performed very well on the road and especially good stepping up in class vs non-conference opposition. He will have his team especially ready here after the general public has lost interest. We expect the Ducks to continue to step back this season. The team only won 9 games a year ago after seven straight years of double digit victories. The Oregon fan base is feeling the same as the team didn’t sell out last weeks contest breaking a long sellout record. While the offense should be potent again the defense allowed 37.5 ppg a year ago. Virginia can move the football against this squad as we expect both teams to exchange scores. Too many points to lay with a program on the decline. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-54 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
329 Akron at Wisconsin You couldn’t ask for a better spot for Akron to take on the Badgers. Not only was Wisconsin looking to avenge a season opening loss to LSU from two years ago. But the game was a historic contest played in Lambeau Field. Even before the game was actual played you could see the excitement in the faces of the Wisconsin players who would step on this historic field to play a football game. After pulling the upset the players celebrated as if winning the national championship. Now with Akron and Georgia State on deck before the Big 10 season gets underway, do we really expect the Badgers to show the same type of emotion? Akron was the top MAC school last year against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season. Even when stepping up in class against Oklahoma the team managed just 3.0 ypc, Pittsburgh was more of the same at 2.8 ypc. Terry Bowden always brings in a lot of transfers which is why this team is always so goo on the lines. We expect the Zips to give the Badgers all it cab handle on Saturday. PLAY AKRON |
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09-10-16 | Central Michigan +21 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 113 h 32 m | Show |
327 Central Michigan at Oklahoma State The Chippewas are going to make us money this year and our first chance to cash is on Saturday. The John Bonamego era started last year with a 7-6 mark and he brings back 16 returning starters after just 9 a season ago. While this isn’t the best team in the MAC it’s the most balanced as the Chips are solid on both sides of the ball and has a possible NFL QB in Cooper Rush behind center. This team is 6-1 as a road dog the last two years and covered by 12 1/2 points last year hosting these Cowboys in the opener. The 24 points Oklahoma scored in last years meeting was just a point more than the 23 it scored against Oklahoma last year, a season low for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State crushed SE Louisiana last week but turnovers were the key. The Cowboys average starting field position was its 46 yard line. Oklahoma State has lost 3 of its last 4 games played including the Sugar Bowl loss to Mississippi. This team doesn’t deserve to be a 3 touchdown favorite here against a solid Central Michigan squad. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
303 Louisville at Syracuse Last year the Cardinals allowed 28.8 ppg when playing away from home. Offensively the Cards are explosive with Lamar Jackson behind center. A dual threat QB with loads of talent. Before Dino Babers and his high octane offense moved to Syracuse, he was the head man at Bowling Green. He runs a fast paced offense with as many plays as possible. The faster the better. Before he came to BG the Falcons games averaged 53.7 ppg. In his two years at BG the Falcons games averaged 63.5 and 71.1. He wants to play the same way with the Orangemen. Last year Bowling Green at home had final scores of 72, 86, 69, 100 and 85. We expect this to be a fast paced shootout. PLAY OVER |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
452 Carolina at Denver While the Panthers are still a terrific team the offensive damage they did was against the weakest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL. This team has some concerns after losing Josh Norman in the offseason. This was a team that was 7-1 in one score games last year, we anticipate some regression. The Panthers were also +20 in turnover margin, another regression probability. The team struggled against this defense a year ago and we look for more of the same. Everyone is talking about the big drop-off at quarterback for the Broncos. But last year the team ranked 25th in the NFL in passing efficiency and were unable to throw the ball downfield. As opposed to the Panthers Denver lost the turnover battle by 4 last season. We think the Broncos can surprise this year and we take the points opening night. PLAY DENVER |
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09-03-16 | Texas State +21 v. Ohio | 56-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
173 Texas State at Ohio U The Bobcats are guaranteed to win this one, and lose also as both teams come into this encounter with the same nickname. That’s just about all that will be in common here as Texas State has a new coaching staff with Everett Withers taking over. The team only has 10 returning starters but that may not be a bad thing considering the 3-9 record from a year ago. The offense is expected to be varied in a high tempo set. Ohio doesn’t really have anything to go on regarding this Texas State offense, which is a good thing. Ohio was very lucky to go 8-5 a year ago and enter this season a bit overrated in our numbers. This is a team that has only beaten two quality teams combined the past two seasons, Marshall and Northern Illinois. The Bobcats from Ohio are a middling MAC squad that shouldn’t lay this type of number to any FBS squad. Last year this team was even on yards per pass on the season while being beaten on yards per rush 5.0 to 4.3. That doesn’t add up to an 8-5 team or a squad deserving of laying three touchdowns. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-03-16 | Hawaii +40 v. Michigan | 3-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
155 Hawaii at Michigan So much has been made of the Hawaii travel schedule going from Australia to Hawaii and then to Michigan. The truth of the matter is the Warriors are well used to long travel trips as they average 8 to 9 hours in flight weekly. In fact, all the talk of the negative travel situation gives us added value. When it comes down to the game, Hawaii has a solid edge as it has a game under its belt, while Michigan still isn’t announcing its starting quarterback. Harbaugh has already said up to 13 freshmen may see the field this year, with this being a great chance to add to its experienced depth. Hawaii DC Kevin Lempa was on the same staff at Boston College as Michigan DC Don Brown. Therefore the Warriors will we well aware of the defense it will face. The Wolverines hype adds to this huge number as we will back Hawaii in a game in which we have a full five points of value. PLAY HAWAII |
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09-03-16 | Boise State v. UL-Lafayette +20 | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
204 Boise State at UL Lafayette The Broncos enter this team with high hopes in the third year with Bryan Harsin in charge. While the team does have 13 returning starters a full 50% of this roster has never taken a snap for the Broncos. The team is talented but depth could be a big problem as the season unfolds. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ are coming in off a poor season, winning just 4 games after four straight 9-4 campaigns. The ULL defense was the problem last year allowing the most points in nearly a decade. But this is a team who is 21-7 straight up at home in the Mark Hudspeth era. The heat and humidity is going to play a huge factor in this game as well as the early start time. Boise State is used to playing at night in cooler weather, that’s the exact opposite of what they will see here. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ have the personnel to trade scores with the Broncos. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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09-02-16 | Army v. Temple -14.5 | 28-13 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
148 Army at Temple Not buying the line move here as we are not as impressed with Army coming into the season as others are. Keep in mind this team was 2-10 last year in the second season of the Jeff Monken era. The two victories came against Bucknell and Eastern Michigan, one of the five worst FBS squads year in and year out. Army just doesn’t have an offense than can move the ball in this matchup. Just 244 yards per game and 22.1 ppg last year for the Black Knights who played a very easy schedule. Temple has gone from 2 wins to 6 and 10 in the three years with Matt Rhule at the helm. This team enters the season off back to back losses to Houston in the AAC Title and Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. You can bet this squad is chomping at the bit to get that taste out of their mouths. Temple has beaten Army six straight times by 21 ppg on average. Covering the past three meetings by 19, 34 1/2 and 15 points. This line is cheap. PLAY TEMPLE |
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09-01-16 | Oregon State +13 v. Minnesota | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
143 Oregon State at Minnesota Gary Anderson is heading into his second season in Corvallis. He managed a 2-10 record the opening season with only 9 returning starters. This year he is up to 13 returners. The offense dropped off 6.7 ppg from the previous season while the defense regressed 5.4 ppg. We look for supreme regression in those numbers this season. Anderson was 2-0 vs Minnesota as coach of Wisconsin, so he knows this program well. Minnesota is getting quite a bit of hype coming off a 6-7 season. But keep in mind the Golden Gophers won only three games at TCF Bank Stadium a year ago. Beating a poor Illinois team by 9, and two MAC teams in Kent State and Ohio by 3 point margins. We like the Gophers this year but this price range is currently our of its league. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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09-01-16 | South Carolina +4.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
141 South Carolina at Vanderbilt Because of off field concerns Steve Spurrier lost interest in the game the last few years on his tenure. In comes a hungry Will Muschamp to pick up the pieces and bring this program back to previous levels. After seven straight winning seasons the Gamecocks managed a 3-9 record a year ago. We expect a rebound season from South Carolina despite only 9 returning starters.To go from beating Vanderbilt 7 straight games by double figures to now being a dog is just a huge overreaction in our eyes. Vanderbilt has won just 7 total games in the last two years under Derek Mason. The team is 4-7 straight up at home vs FBS programs, with two of those victories coming against Old Dominion and Massachusetts. Under Mason the Commodores have averaged 15.2 and 17.2 points. Hard to lay over a field goal with teams that can’t score. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
314 Arizona at Carolina |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
314 Arizona at Carolina |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | 18-20 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
311 New England at Denver |
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01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins -105 | Top | 35-18 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
108 Green Bay at Washington Something is wrong with Aaron Rodgers as he hasn’t been nearly as effective this year. Part of the reason could be the absence of his top receiver, and another problem has been protection from the offensive line. But while both are factors the truth is Rodgers simply hasn’t played well this season, and we feel an injury may be the problem. He was simply outstanding a year ago and this type of drop off rarely occurs in a still somewhat young player. Washington is simply the better team right now. Cousins has been the biggest reason as his advanced stats have him as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He played great at home and struggled on the road early. But that hasn’t been the problem down the stretch. He’s turned into a very valuable signal caller that still gets little credit. Take the names off the jerseys in this contest and just go by the stats and the host would be a 3 point favorite. We’ll back the Redskins here on Sunday.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
106 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati According to the acclaimed Gold Sheet home underdogs in the playoffs are 13-5-2. These two both won on the oppositions field, the latter game being the contest Pittsburgh knocked Andy Dalton out of the game. Cincinnati is 20-5-1 straight up at home and now has quick turnaround revenge against a team that severely hurt its chances of reaching the Super Bowl by knocking out its quarterback.This is the third straight road game for Pittsburgh and 4th in the last 5 weeks. Big Ben only owns a 24-18 touchdown to interception ratio on the season. Interceptions have been a major problem as of late. The Steelers are likely down to its 3rd and 4th straight running backs in this contest. This line has been over adjusted with AJ McCarron behind center for the Bengals.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
326 Minnesota at Green BayThis game sets up as a low scoring divisional battle, with the winner clinching the division and the loser gaining the wild card. Therefore we expect both squads to play conservatively on offense as turnovers could play a major factor. Green Bay is sure to stack the box and limit the success of Peterson. But the Vikings haven’t shown the ability to throw the ball effectively. And they continue to hand the ball off in poor running situations.Green Bay will be hampered by a banged up offensive line which will put Rodgers in jeopardy. We expect Green Bay to feature the run which will keep pressure off the quarterback. Both these teams know each other very well, so its unlikely we see a margin on either side.PLAY UNDER |
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01-03-16 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Cardinals | 36-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
331 Seattle at ArizonaSeattle lost the previous meeting and is playing with revenge which should be enough motivation against a divisional rival. If the Seahawks lose here, they would enter the playoffs off back to back losses, and need to win out on the playoff road to reach the Super Bowl. Not the type of negative momentum this team wants. Seattle has won and covered 4 of 5 visits to Arizona. So it’s not like this club lacks confidence. The defense has allowed only 3 TD in the last 4 games.Arizona improves its seeding with a win here and a loss by Carolina. The problem is the Panthers are 11 point home favorites over Tampa Bay. Both squads have clinched the playoffs which could mean resting of players. But with an extra week of rest its more important for Seattle to play a complete game here.PLAY SEATTLE |
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01-03-16 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 51 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
323 Philadelphia at NY Giants With the Eagles firing its coach and the future wide open, we expect to see an exciting brand of football on Sunday. Teams that are out of the playoff hunt have the tendency to play free and easy on offense. A time to pad the stats for the offseason. While its tough to get fired up defensively just playing out the string. The Giants have their own decisions to make regarding the coaching staff. So they too could create some offensive fireworks. Both teams have the talent to put up points, and the defenses haven’t exactly been trustworthy.PLAY OVER |
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01-02-16 | Penn State +6.5 v. Georgia | 17-24 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Taxslayer Bowl 273 Penn State & Georgia in JacksonvilleThe Nittany Lions won a neutral site game against Maryland by a single point but lost every true road game it played this season. But they did play the leagues elite in those road losses. Penn State’s head man is very familiar with the SEC having coaching Vanderbilt before coming to Happy Valley. The Nittany Lion program has been down the past few years, so you know this squad will be excited to be here. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4.5 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Orange Bowl262 Oklahoma & Clemson in MiamiThe Sooners have bowl game revenge here but this line has gotten out of hand. The only undefeated team in the country and long time #1 squad is now getting way too many points here. A steady flow of money has come in on Oklahoma but we’re not so sure it’s smart money. Keep in mind the Sooners took advantage of the worst defensive teams in college football. Big 12 teams are currently 1-3 straight up this bowl season with more to come in the lesser bowls after January 1st. Clemson has simply done what has been asked of them, beat the teams on its schedule. Florida State and Notre Dame wins are more impressive than any the Sooners have beaten. Oklahoma has been fortunate to face second string signal callers in key games. Oklahoma enters as the hotter team but all momentum is lost when both teams have such a long time frame between games.PLAY CLEMSON |
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12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Belk Bowl
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12-28-15 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
132 Cincinnati at Denver The Broncos haven’t scored in the second half of its last three contests, which isn’t as big of concern since the Bengals are without its top signal caller. Brock Osweiler has a shoulder issue but will play. But he’s struggled throwing the ball downfield and this doesn’t help matters. That said he is backed by the best defense in the league. |
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12-28-15 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Navy | 28-44 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Military Bowl |
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12-27-15 | Rams +12.5 v. Seahawks | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
127 St Louis at SeattleSeattle is the hottest team in the league right now winning and covering five straight. Wilson has a 19-0 TD to INT ratio in those five games. If you treat sports betting like the stock market you want to bet on teams that you can buy cheap, and sell those that have peaked. The Seahawks are peaking right now. Seattle has lost it’s top two running backs after losing Graham at TE. This is a team that is not healthy offensively right now as WR Baldwin is also questionable. |
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12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
110 Carolina at Atlanta Back to back road games for the Panthers after the total collapse last week against the Giants. Focus has to be a question after beating the Falcons 38-0 just two weeks ago. All the talk last week was that if Carolina wins it’s a cakewalk with Atlanta and Tampa Bay remaining. The Panthers may rest players for the playoffs which gives Atlanta an open back door cover if Carolina has a lead. |
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12-26-15 | Southern Miss v. Washington -8.5 | Top | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 265 h 8 m | Show |
Heart of Dallas Bowl
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12-26-15 | Connecticut +5 v. Marshall | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
St Petersburg Bowl |
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12-22-15 | Toledo v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 32-17 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Boca Raton Bowl
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12-20-15 | Cardinals v. Eagles OVER 51 | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
317 Arizona at Philadelphia The Cardinals love to throw the ball deep and have a nice advantage here against a weak Eagles secondary. The Cards are a good offensive fit against this underperforming defense which has been on the field for more time per game than any other in the league.Bradford has been the only Philly signal caller with any success this season. He’s especially good against the blitz, something the Cardinals do more than just about anyone. Therefore we can see both sides moving the ball well here and putting up plenty of points. PLAY OVER |
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12-19-15 | Jets -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
303 NY Jets at Dallas The line has surpassed the key number of 3 but we still find plenty of value here with the Jets. Fitzpatrick has been on fire as of late with a 9-0 td to int ratio with quarterback ratings of over 100 three straight weeks. With the Jets secondary getting healthier we find the going tough for the Cowboys passing game which has been feeble without Romo. The Jets defend the run well and should stack the box and make Cassell beat them through the air. Not a likely positive result for the Cowboys offense. Dallas has had a next to nothing home field advantage in the Jerry Dome, and this year has been no exception.PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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12-13-15 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 50 | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
105 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati We look for this one to be a shootout. It’s an extremely important game for the Steelers who lost to the Bengals in the earlier meeting this season. While Cincinnati is fighting it out with Denver and New England for playoff positioning, the Steelers need this game to increase wildcard chances. If you break down the games that Big Ben started and finished as opposed to games he didn’t its been night and day as far as the offense is concerned. In games he plays all the way through, the Steelers are twice as efficient offensively. While we can’t guarantee he won’t be hurt again this week, we expect his success to continue.Cincinnati has been terrific all season especially offensively. Andy Dalton could very well be the best QB in the league this season. A lot of that has to do with his excellent receiving corps, and lengthy time in the pocket. No lead is safe here as touchdowns will be plentiful.PLAY OVER |
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12-13-15 | 49ers v. Browns OVER 41 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
111 San Francisco at ClevelandThe 49ers have played Arizona and traveled to Seattle and Chicago the past three weeks, three quality defensive teams. In those games Blane Gabbert is 65 for 102 for 778 yards with a 3 to 1 TD to INT Ratio. The 49ers are last in the league in scoring and yardage, but have improved under Gabbert and its gone unnoticed by the public.The Browns have permitted 37, 33, 30, 31 and 34 points in the last five games. The last four games have come against divisional rivals who know how to defend them. Non-Conference games are higher scoring that conference tilts, especially divisional games. Bad teams with nothing to play for play free and easy at the end of the season. We saw it last week with Jacksonville and Tennessee. We see it this week with the Niners and Browns.PLAY OVER |
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12-13-15 | Titans +7.5 v. Jets | 8-30 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
123 Tennessee at NY JetsWe’re not buying into the Jets at this inflated number. Sure the game means more to New York as it looks to solidify a wildcard spot. But we just don’t trust these Jets laying points. The spot is a terrible one coming off a late come from behind overtime win over cross-town rival the NY Giants. With Dallas on deck Saturday as well as games with Buffalo and New England on deck, this is a flat spot in the schedule for the Jets.Tennessee has won 2 of the last 3 meetings in the series, and this team is getting better by the week. The Titans were a strong wise guy play in the season over/unders, and now those expectations are shining through. Ryan Fitzpatrick played for Tennessee in 2013 so the Titans know very well his strengths and weaknesses. We expect this one to go down to the wire.PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-06-15 | 49ers +7 v. Bears | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
351 San Francisco at Chicago Well aware that the Niners have been much better at home than on the road but it’s a small sample size we look to reverse. Chicago DC Vic Fangio was fired by the 49ers after last season so there is a bit of extra motivation from the Chicago coaching staff. Blane Gabbert has played well for the 49ers especially when compared to the previous signal caller. Anquan Bolden returned for San Francisco last week and the team threw the ball well with a go-to receiver.This is the first game the Bears have been favored in all season and its by a large margin. Chicago is 3-1 the last 4 games but beat Green Bay, St Louis and San Diego. Three teams that have really struggled down the stretch. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-06-15 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 43 | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
351 San Francisco at ChicagoThe 49er offense is much better under Blane Gabbert as he has moved the ball well against defenses much better than the one he faces here. The team should find the running lanes a little easier than the ones the team faced against the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two weeks. Chicago in kind will find some spots against a 49er defense that has really struggled on the road. Very surprised to see a total this low involving the Bears who don’t have a dominant defense.PLAY OVER |
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12-05-15 | Air Force v. San Diego State -6.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 43 m | Show | |
328 Air Force at San Diego State |
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12-05-15 | West Virginia -5.5 v. Kansas State | 23-24 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
313 West Virginia at Kansas State |