09-12-15 |
San Diego State +14 v. California |
Top |
7-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 24 m |
Show
|
357 San Diego State at California Rocky Long is one of our favorite college football coaches. While others will avoid uncomfortable questions Long seems to relish them. At the Mountain West Conference media day he told us the only way a team from his conference would ever get into the National Championship Playoff would be if its expanded to eight teams. He rolled his eyes when he talked of the Power Five Conferences letting a team from outside in the four team playoff. After last weeks game against San Diego he said his team didn’t show anything, playing vanilla the whole game. Cal is just 3-10 SU & ATS at home under Sonny Dykes in his two years in Berkeley. He has another outstanding offense but his defense the last two years permitted 39.8 and 45.9 points per game. Not enamored laying double digits with a defense that can’t tackle. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
09-12-15 |
Notre Dame v. Virginia +11.5 |
|
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 3 m |
Show
|
354 Notre Dame at Virginia Can’t go wrong going against a very public team after an outstanding performance the prior week. And while it’s clear the Irish have a talented and deep squad, much of its success last week was because Texas was simply terrible. The scheduling spot is a tough one as well, as the Irish played a traditional powerhouse in Texas and must face the Georgia Tech option next week. The depth for Notre Dame is already being tested as the team is down to its third string running back. Mike London isn’t very popular among many pundits we like like him just fine. He’s a dangerous underdog and we have made good money backing Virginia with him at the helm. Notre Dame is not a good road favorite, in fact, not a good chalk regardless of location. We expect this one to be a one score outcome. PLAY VIRGINIA
|
09-12-15 |
Kansas State -16.5 v. Texas-San Antonio |
|
30-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
327 Kansas State at Texas San Antonio Despite a 34-0 win last week over South Dakota, the Wildcats only won the yardage battle by 69. That did not please coach Snyder and we see him getting these kids fired up during practice this week. QB Ertz was knocked out of the game last week, but our contacts told us there wasn’t really a number one quarterback coming out of camp. So we get the pointspread advantage of a backup quarterback without it really being much of a drop off. This is a familiar site for Kansas State as it played in the Alamo Bowl here at the end of last season. While the Roadrunners looked good last week they faced what we consider a weak Arizona defense who lost its All-American Scooby Wright early in the game. Without Wright the defense played wrong all afternoon. (You see what we did there?) This team went from being the most veteran in college football a year ago with 20 returning starters to the youngest this season with just 5 returners. Overreaction to Texas San Antonio as the Wildcats dominate. PLAY KANSAS STATE
|
09-12-15 |
Bowling Green +7.5 v. Maryland |
Top |
48-27 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 54 m |
Show
|
369 Bowling Green at Maryland The Falcons got better as the season went on a year ago and we feel the peak has yet to be reached. Looking to play as fast as possible the Falcons tired a bit as the game went along last week at Tennessee. Keep in mind the Bowling Green depth is nowhere near that of an SEC squad. While Maryland looked good last week we’re not buying the Terrapins laying this type of price. Maryland is a team that can’t be trusted as the squad still doesn’t have enough quality depth. Playing a team like Bowling Green can easily exploit that weakness. Don’t look for the Falcons to fade in this one as it goes down to the wire. PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
09-05-15 |
Mississippi State v. Southern Miss +21 |
Top |
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
80 h 11 m |
Show
|
204 Mississippi State at Southern Miss Two teams heading in opposite directions yet the betting line hasn’t caught up to the changes. Southern Miss had an excellent program not too long ago but fell on hard times. Now we look for SM to continue the better play from a year ago. The Golden Eagles bring back 15 starters as well as three transfers from the power five conferences. Overall 9 of 10 offensive linemen return along with much better depth all around, including the quarterback position. It’s the third year of coach Todd Monken’s system which should be a big plus. Mississippi State was once the top rated team in the nation last year but consistently faded as the season unfolded. Excellent QB Prescott returns along with a talented offense, but this defense has many question marks. It wore down as the season unfolded and the true depth of this team is a mystery. Manny Diaz is back as defensive coordinator after leaving Louisiana Tech. He will get the best of these players as the season unfolds but we’re not sold at this point. A lack of depth in the front seven tells us that the Golden Eagles can keep the chains moving.PLAY SOUTHERN MISS
|
09-05-15 |
Old Dominion v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 65.5 |
|
38-34 |
Loss |
-106 |
136 h 32 m |
Show
|
162 Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan The Monarchs will be playing more of a ball control offense this season after the graduation of the All-Conference Center and QB Taylor Heinicke who was a four year starter. Old Dominion will have a new quarterback who has never taken a snap at this level. In fact, the two players looking for snaps were a 2 star recruit by rivals and a non-recruit. The defense has given up more points per game than the prior season in four straight years but the team couldn’t get a set lineup last year because of injuries. So with more depth this season we expect the Monarchs to turn that around. Eastern Michigan’s defense improved by 4.3 points per game last year despite playing at Florida, at Michigan State and facing top tier offenses in the MAC away from Rynearson Stadium. This is a team with 8 defensive starters returning which is more than any season since 2009. Our contacts have been impressed by the strides this defense has made in the off-season and with the Monarchs breaking in a new signal caller we expect the Eagles to hold them in check. The last two years Eastern Michigan averaged 15.2 and 18.8 points per game. This is not a quality offense at this time despite the excitement of QB Reginald Bell. Just 5 returning starters and six straight years of averaging less than 22 points per game. The defense will keep the Eagles close but the offense may not have the talent to produce victories.PLAY UNDER
|
09-03-15 |
TCU v. Minnesota +14.5 |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
78 h 44 m |
Show
|
142 TCU at Minnesota Since I do a lot of betting on Games of the Year releases months before the season starts, I have found that fading the expected dominant teams adds to my great success. It also includes early season match ups, especially week one. For an example look at how everyone thought of Florida State a year ago. There was nowhere to go but down. The same is true of Ohio State and TCU this season. Keep in mind Ohio State was a 12 1/2 point favorite in Minnesota last year and won by a touchdown. Now we have TCU laying more than that against a better Golden Gophers squad. TCU was the luckiest team in college football last year with turnovers at +6.3 points per game. The starters last year were very fortunate with injuries losing only eight combined games across the entire season. The team also led the country in field position advantage at +9.9, far surpassing the rest of the NCAA. The team lost its longtime defensive coordinator and tons of talent to the NFL from that side of the ball. Only 1 of the top 7 tacklers return. This is the best team yet for Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. With a terrific secondary that matches up very well with the Horned Frogs. Minnesota also competes well with the TCU special teams, and not many other units across the country can say that. Playing a team with the fast tempo of TCU right now is the ideal time of year to do so. Lots of time to prepare the players as opposed to the middle of the season. Minnesota is a well balanced team that can give this overrated Horned Frogs squad all it can handle. The 23 point loss at TCU last year was by far the biggest loss margin on the season, so Minnesota has this game circled. Keep in mind Minnesota only lost to Ohio State by 7 and by 10 at Wisconsin last year. The Gophers are on an 8-1 ATS run as a double digit dogs. PLAY MINNESOTA
|
02-01-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots |
Top |
24-28 |
Loss |
-100 |
195 h 33 m |
Show
|
102 New England & Seattle As sports bettors people tend to remember what they saw last. In this case it was a Seattle team that trailed for almost the entire game and a New England squad who dominated the Colts. Going into the weekend the NFL futures had the NFC favored by 2 1/2 to 3 over the AFC. With Seattle and New England expected to win it made sense. Green Bay would have been a bigger favorite over Indy if each of the dogs won, but not many were expecting that result to happen. So after the third quarter the books started leaking out feelers with low limits on a possible Super Bowl matchup of the Seahawks and the Patriots, who were up big over the Colts. Most put the Seahawks as a 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 point favorite. Similar to what the NFC over AFC bet would have been before the weekend. But most of the early money came in on the Patriots, and according to some bookmakers in town it wasn’t sharp money. It was fans who were in town for the games who wanted to get down before leaving for the weekend. Keep in mind that it doesn’t take much money to move a number early in the week, especially when not on a key number. So when you hear the media talk about the huge influx of cash on the Patriots, you can come to your own better informed conclusions.
Currently 76% of the bets in the big game have come in on the Patriots. Yet the overall money bet on the game is much closer to even. That means the bigger bets are on the Seahawks while the smaller bets are favoring the Patriots. Which gets right back to our original thoughts on what the public remembers most is what they saw last. Keep in mind the Patriots have absolutely owned Andrew Luck since he was drafted by the Colts. So a big win from New England didn’t come as a surprise. In fact, the Patriots were our only play last week as we felt the team had value after struggling with Baltimore. A team that has always played the Patriots very well. So New England who almost and probably should have lost to Baltimore the week before is now all of a sudden a public darling from taking advantage of a good matchup. The Seahawks on the other hand struggled against a Green Bay team that in most power ratings were ranked third in the league coming into the game. A team led by the MVP but clearly not 100%. There isn’t anyone out there that would rank the Colts on the same level as New England, Green Bay or Seattle. Getting to the game itself lets look at a few numbers. Seattle played the third toughest schedule in the league, New England the 11th. When taking on the Top 5 power ranked teams this year Seattle was 3-0 and the Patriots 2-1. Against the weakest ten teams in the NFL New England was 5-0 and Seattle 2-0. So the Patriots padded its record playing a much weaker schedule than the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is his career is 10-0 against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. He already beat Tom Brady in his rookie season. Teams entering the Super Bowl with the top ranked scoring defense in the NFL are 9-1 in the big game. Teams coming off scoring 40 or more in the playoffs are terrible pointspread propositions in the following game. That includes a big scoring output in the conference finals. In our mind Seattle is the better team who played the tougher schedule. The situation screams Seahawks after the way it played last week. The situation is very similar to a year ago when the Broncos looked invincible and took a ton of opening money against these same Seahawks. We will be on the repeat champion Seattle squad. PLAY SEATTLE
|
01-18-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6.5 |
|
7-45 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 9 m |
Show
|
304 Indianapolis at New England We used the Broncos last week against the Colts and it was clear early on that we had the wrong side. Manning was obviously not himself in that game, and it turned out his injury was much more severe than what was originally suggested. In our eyes the Denver players were beaten before they took the field. They had practiced with the injured quarterback and knew coming into the game that Manning wasn’t the same. While the Denver defense had improved the offense didn’t have the same zip without a healthy signal caller. Because of that we weren’t as impressed by the Indy performance as a lot of people. New England has dominated Andrew Luck in all three meetings since he was drafted in Indianapolis. The Pats have beaten the Colts by margins of 25, 21 and 22 points. In the earlier meeting this season the Colts won the turnover battle and still didn’t come close to making it a game. Indy is a domed team playing outside in likely very cold conditions. In the NFL the team that wins the turnover battle likely wins and covers the game. In nine home games this season the Pats had not lost the turnover battle eight times. In the only game it did, the turnover didn’t come into play, as New England pounded Miami 41-13. This is the 4th road game in 5 weeks for the Colts. Just too big a task for Indy to go into New England and be competitive. PLAY NEW ENGLAND
|
01-12-15 |
Ohio State +7 v. Oregon |
|
42-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
277 Ohio State & Oregon This game has been broken down and dissected all week throughout the media and fandom. Therefore we won’t bore you with details. Simply put the Buckeyes in our eyes have a sizable big game experience edge at head coach. A coach who has excelled in big games and in the role of an underdog. Ohio State is the more physical team and likely to slow down the Ducks by having success on the ground. Getting close to a touchdown here is an overlay for two teams that we feel are far closer to equal at this point of the season.PLAY OHIO STATE
|
01-10-15 |
Baltimore Ravens +7 v. New England Patriots |
|
31-35 |
Win
|
100 |
77 h 20 m |
Show
|
111 Baltimore at New England In past years we were chomping at the bit to bet against Joe Flacco on the road. His home/road dichotomy was enormous. But that hasn’t been the case this year, especially as of late. Under the coaching of Kubiak, Flacco has become a weapon away from home. He has picked it up in playoff action posting a 13 to 0 TD to INT ratio his last five playoff games. While the Ravens do have some concerns in the defensive backfield, the offense should be able to move the ball well against this Patriot defense. Baltimore is in a familiar position of playing on the road in the playoffs, and the Ravens have excelled in that regard. Especially when playing in New England.The Patriots are where they expected to be before the season, with home field advantage in the playoffs. But New England got to play a weak divisional schedule as every team other than Buffalo was down this season. Miami looked good early but faltered late, and the Jets were just horrible. The Patriots have the edge with the extra week to prepare, and we all know about the coaching staff. But New England hasn’t been a money maker in the playoffs as of late and the Ravens have an excellent sideline mentor of their own.PLAY BALTIMORE Opinion Carolina/Seattle Under
|
01-03-15 |
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 v. Carolina Panthers |
|
16-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
105 Arizona at Carolina Nobody is giving Arizona a shot in this game as the line has steadily risen since hitting the board. True, this isn’t the same Cardinals team with a third string quarterback, but we still don’t trust a Carolina squad who ended the season playing patsies. Teams who enter the playoffs having lost its previous two games have been a consistent money maker. And its a given that the Cardinals are the better coached team. While Carolina has played better down the stretch we still can’t see there being much differential between these two clubs. Arizona played the tougher schedule which is a good indicator of success in this round. We are willing to back the Cards here to take this one to the wire with a good chance of an outright victory. PLAY ARIZONA Opinion Baltimore
|
01-01-15 |
Wisconsin v. Auburn -6 |
|
34-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
215 h 55 m |
Show
|
256 Wisconsin & Auburn at Tampa Normally we would jump all over a good team who was embarrassed last time out, as Wisconsin was by Ohio State. But since that game the coach has left and we have serious concerns about the lack of team speed on this Badgers team. That was one reason why this club struggled so badly against the Buckeyes. Teams that spread the field have given Wisconsin fits. And it must be mentioned that the Badgers have one of the worst bowl records in the nation. Auburn started the season strong and scuffled down the stretch, exactly the type of team we like to back in bowl season. This team has a ton of talent and has something to prove after being in the national title mix. This number is cheap in a Big 10/SEC matchup. PLAY AUBURN
|
12-30-14 |
Notre Dame +7.5 v. LSU |
|
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
170 h 5 m |
Show
|
243 Notre Dame & LSU at Nashville A nice bowl money maker over the years is playing on teams who struggled down the stretch. And Notre Dame certainly qualifies after starting the year strong and falling apart in the second half of the season. That gives us a focused team in this contest along with nice line value as bettors tend to remember what they have seen recently. And recently the Irish have underperformed. LSU is a young team that has gotten better week by week. Which is why this line is a bit inflated in our eyes. While it’s true this isn’t the same team as it was early on, it’s still a young team with many key players going bowling for the very first time. We will back the more veteran Irish in a game we are sure they have the higher focus. PLAY NOTRE DAME
|
12-29-14 |
Texas +6.5 v. Arkansas |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
155 h 31 m |
Show
|
241 Texas & Arkansas at Houston With the total sitting in the 45 range, points become very valuable in this contest. Both teams improved as the season went on and are now about where we projected both to be at the beginning of the season. While next year looks bright for both these clubs there is still one game to play. We really like the job Strong did for the Longhorns as he cleaned house early and often. After a slow start to the season this team started buying into his system. With both teams having excellent defenses we prefer the team who can throw the ball as Arkansas is a bit one-dimensional offensively. In a low scoring slugfest we will take the points with what we consider an equal team playing in its home state. PLAY TEXAS
|
12-29-14 |
Clemson v. Oklahoma -3.5 |
|
40-6 |
Loss |
-105 |
151 h 12 m |
Show
|
240 Clemson & Oklahoma in Orlando Handicapping Clemson is very simple. With Watson this is a dynamic offense that can move the ball on anyone. With Stout this is a team that struggles to move the ball and can be beaten by anyone. The defense is outstanding but you can only do so much when the offense continues to put you in poor field position. The drop off at quarterback is about the largest in college football. Oklahoma looked like one of the best teams in the nation early on but struggled down the stretch. But with the QB returning, and the poor run giving us great line value we love the favorite here. The Sooners were embarrassed by its play against Oklahoma State and can’t wait to get back on the field here. Everything we have read supports a very positive effort from Oklahoma. Motivation is key and Clemson can’t be overly excited here with Watson electing surgery now as opposed to waiting till the season ends. Clemson got their big victory over South Carolina, time to enjoy Mickey Mouse and company. PLAY OKLAHOMA
|
12-27-14 |
Miami (Fla) v. South Carolina +3.5 |
|
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
117 h 14 m |
Show
|
232 Miami Florida & South Carolina in Shreveport Miami has taken early money in this matchup which isn’t much of a surprise as the Hurricanes have taken money most of the season. While Miami is a talented team it has continued to underperform when stepping up in class. Constant double digit losses can only mean the talent level on this team is higher in expectations than reality. South Carolina has played the tougher schedule and has four losses of a touchdown or less. This is a team that remains competitive in far more games than the Hurricanes. It’s also a rare occasion when a team from the SEC is installed as an underdog in a bowl game. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA
|
12-24-14 |
Fresno State +2.5 v. Rice |
|
6-30 |
Loss |
-102 |
55 h 18 m |
Show
|
219 Fresno State & Rice in Honolulu First island bowl game in a while for Rice who will obviously enjoy the surroundings more than Fresno State, who has played in this bowl before and makes trips here every other year. The Bulldogs have slight edges in offense and defense and a substantial advantage in special teams as it’s an Owl weakness. Fresno State is also an underdog who has played the stronger strength of schedule. Fresno was embarrassed in the post season a year ago. This is the team that has more to prove in the contest. PLAY FRESNO STATE
|
12-21-14 |
Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +7 |
|
24-26 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 50 m |
Show
|
126 Buffalo at Oakland Congrats to the Bills who have shut down the Packers and Broncos the last two weeks, holding both All-Star quarterbacks without a passing touchdown. Now Buffalo faces off with a rookie quarterback on a team likely playing out the string. In addition Buffalo has to travel across country and plays at New England next weekend. Oakland is not a good football team obviously but we should see a good effort here in its final home game. The Raiders have some quality young players to build upon and there is talk of Harbaugh crossing over the bridge. With a trip to Denver on deck we can see the Raiders being in this one throughout. PLAY OAKLAND
|
12-21-14 |
Atlanta Falcons +6 v. New Orleans Saints |
|
30-14 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 37 m |
Show
|
113 Atlanta at New Orleans This is a do or die game for both these squads as the loser will likely sit on the playoff sidelines with just one week to go. Although many feel all three divisional contenders should have its season end after 16 games. The Falcons are not a good road team but the dome should help this offense as well as the likely return of the teams top receiver. The New Orleans four game home losing streak has brought to an end a terrific home field advantage for the Saints. This is no longer an intimidating place to play as it’s clear that the Saints are not a good football team regardless of where it plays. We aren’t buying a New Orleans team who beat up on a Chicago team that has clearly thrown in the towel. A short preparation week cannot help the situation. PLAY ATLANTA
|
12-21-14 |
New England Patriots v. NY Jets +11 |
|
17-16 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 30 m |
Show
|
116 New England at NY Jets It’s tough to make a case against the Patriots at this time of season as New England has been dominant over the years in December. But off the Dolphins and with Buffalo on deck this could be a weak spot in the schedule for the Patriots. New York on the other hand has played well against the Patriots and this is their Super Bowl. It’s almost a done deal that Ryan will be gone at the end of the season and from all accounts his players adore him. That’s all we need to know in taking a double digit divisional home underdog, which traditionally is a fine money maker. PLAY NEW YORK JETS
|
12-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins |
Top |
35-37 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 46 m |
Show
|
107 Minnesota at Miami The Vikings are on a nice pointspread run that isn’t being publicized because the outright wins haven’t come with the same regularity. This is a team that is still playing hard despite a less than stellar record. The future is looking brighter for Minnesota as it looks as if Teddy Bridgewater may be the answer under center. The Dolphins started the year out strong but have faded miserably. The coaching change looks like a formality and what was once a likely playoff team is now playing out the string. Miami has been beaten up in the running game as of late and we expect more of the same on Sunday. No way the host should be a touchdown favorite here despite the back to back road games for the visitor. PLAY MINNESOTA
|
12-20-14 |
Utah -2.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
45-10 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 54 m |
Show
|
205 Utah at Colorado State A bit surprised by the line movement on this one as the head coach-less Rams have been taking money, knocking this line down to 3 in the process. Colorado State gets to play in Las Vegas every other year and the holiday travel of this game could be a chore for Rams backers. Playing in the Mountain West Conference also means Colorado State played the weaker of the two schedules.Utah on the other hand has sold out its allotment of tickets as the Top 20 ranked basketball team is also playing in Vegas this weekend. That adds to the excitement for the Utes faithful. While Colorado State throws the ball well it rarely sees the pressure Utah will bring defensively. Utah has always traveled well to this location in past years as part of the Mountain West and we expect them to have a solid advantage in the stands. We know Utah is excited to be here, not so sure with a Colorado State team with a coach that left for Florida.PLAY UTAH
|
12-14-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 |
|
13-41 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 52 m |
Show
|
316 Miami at New England The Dolphin defense is collapsing under the weight of opponent running attacks. Both Denver and the Jets ran the ball down the Dolphins throats and we see more of the same here from New England. The Miami offense hasn’t been nearly as successful as of late as they themselves have had a hard time moving the football on the ground. Miami has had defensive success against Tom Brady by not having to blitz him. The Dolphins have been able to pressure him all day with a normal pass rush. His career numbers against Miami pale in comparison to every other team he has faced. The New England coaching staff knows that, so look for a heavy dose of the running game. More runs keep the clock ticking and keeps this game well under the posted total. PLAY UNDER
|
12-14-14 |
Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts -6.5 |
Top |
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
66 h 20 m |
Show
|
312 Houston at Indianapolis The Texans are coming in off Tennessee and Jacksonville, two of the worst teams in the NFL. Houston has struggled against Indy dropping 4 of 5 SU & ATS since Luck became the Indy signal caller. The Texans will likely be without its top receiver Johnson who is coming off a concussion which means the questionable Indy defense can stack the box to slow down the Houston running attack, thus putting Fitzpatrick as the onus of the offense. Indy has been a terrific team after a non-covering affair. The Colts have also been automatic in divisional games cashing 11 straight. This team has also been dynamite at home since drafting Luck out of Stanford. Houston just doesn’t match up with Indy as you have to outscore the Colts in order to beat them. Indy is at its best at home in the dome. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS
|
12-07-14 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles -109 |
Top |
24-14 |
Loss |
-109 |
54 h 41 m |
Show
|
176 Seattle at Philadelphia We’re not buying into the new and improved Seattle Seahawks. After struggling with mediocracy for most of the season, back to back wins by Seattle has them firmly back into Super Bowl contention. Seattle has gone 2-1 the past three weeks with a loss to Kansas City and wins against Arizona and San Francisco. What do all three of those teams have in common? They are all teams that are fading fast. It’s not just Seattle that looked good against those clubs. Hell, Oakland had its only win of the season against Kansas City two weeks ago. Arizona is well down without Carson Palmer and the 49ers have been nothing more than an average team all season. Philadelphia continues to be underrated in the betting marketplace. The defense was very weak early on and has improved as the season has unfolded. The coaching edge and the home field are in the Eagles favor and yet this line still remains under three. These type of bargains rarely appear in the NFL and we are stepping out with a sizable play. PLAY PHILADELPHIA
|
12-07-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. Detroit Lions |
|
17-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
50 h 28 m |
Show
|
163 Tampa Bay at Detroit There are many terrible teams in the NFL this year, and most of the time the Bucs are included in that group based on its season to date record. Including Tampa with the rest of the dregs would be downright wrong. This is a team that despite not tasting victory on a regular basis is in virtually every game played. While the offense does have problems, the defense has gotten better and better every game. Tampa is at its best as a road underdog and Lovie Smith knows this Detroit team well having faced them twice a year when coaching the Bears. Detroit is a really good defense that peaked early in the season. They should have a good game against this limited Tampa scoring unit. But Detroit simply isn’t explosive enough to distance itself from this Bucs defensive unit. We look for a low scoring affair with double digits being too large a spread to pass up. PLAY TAMPA BAY
|
12-06-14 |
Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4.5 |
Top |
0-59 |
Win
|
100 |
55 h 27 m |
Show
|
128 Wisconsin at Ohio State The Badgers for the most part are a one dimensional team with a terrific running attack. The featured rusher twisted his ankle late in the game last week which could be a problem here for Gordan and the Badgers. Regardless of who is running the football for Wisconsin the Buckeyes know defensive priority number one. Ohio State is down to its third quarterback of the season but Jones was battling neck and neck with Barrett before the season started. He doesn’t have the legs of the previous two signal callers but he does have a strong arm. Urban Meyer has been a major money maker for bettors over the years and now he has the opportunity to win as an underdog. When nobody gives Meyer a shot that’s exactly when we want to back him. Ort numbers say the line change of 7 points because of the QB situation is about 3 points too high. We will gladly take Ohio State as an underdog in this contest. PLAY OHIO STATE
|
12-06-14 |
Louisiana Tech +11 v. Marshall |
|
23-26 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 23 m |
Show
|
121 La Tech at Marshall In was clear that Marshall looked past Western Kentucky last week and the Thundering Herd paid for it in a major way losing in overtime as a huge favorite. Marshall fell behind early and laid it all on the line to try to save its undefeated season and a chance to play in a major bowl. That dream crushing loss is sure to be evident here against a team on the rise in Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have quietly become a very good football team again this year and a real money maker for its backers. This team has the firepower to match the Herd here and a defense that is improving by the week. We are catching a quality tram here against a Marshall squad who hasn’t played a complete game in quite a long time. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH
|
12-05-14 |
Arizona +15 v. Oregon |
|
13-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 34 m |
Show
|
107 Arizona & Oregon at Santa Clara To knock off heavily favored Oregon last year was an accomplishment, to do so again this year brings validity. The Wildcats and Rich Rodriguez match up extremely well with Oregon as Rich Rod’s knowledge of this system has been a major key. He implemented this style of play back when he roamed the sidelines at West Virginia, and because of that he’s able to defense it. Arizona will come into this game with as much confidence as a two touchdown underdog can possibly have, while Oregon must be a bit skittish against the only team who have been able to beat them as of late. PLAY ARIZONA
|
11-30-14 |
Arizona Cardinals -1.5 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
18-29 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
469 Arizona at Atlanta Cheap number to lay here with the far better squad. Arizona finds ways to win while the Falcons find ways to lose. Looking at stats it’s hard to see how the Cardinals have amassed such a strong record. But that’s why we can find value on them at less than a field goal. Arizona doesn’t dazzle. They don’t have a high flying offense like a Green Bay or New England. What this team does do is play quality defense and not turn the ball over. The exact opposite of the Atlanta Falcons.Matt Ryan and company do not take care of the football and the defense has allowed season highs to more than one team this year. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 4-7 on the season, with all four wins coming against divisional opponents. The same division that has co-leaders of the Falcons and Saints at three games under 500. Arizona is 3-2 on the road with the losses coming at the two Super Bowl participants from last year. PLAY ARIZONA
|
11-29-14 |
Michigan State -13.5 v. Penn State |
Top |
34-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
399 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartans have been dominant ever since losing to Ohio State. The defense has stepped up and the offense gets better every week. This is a good matchup for the visitor as Penn State has had trouble protecting the quarterback all season. This line is similar to the one when Ohio State visited Happy Valley. But the major differences are Michigan State has a more experienced quarterback that can take advantage of a Penn State defense that hasn’t faced many quality scoring units this season. This game is in the afternoon while the Buckeye game was a rare night contest. That was a major edge for the Nittany Lions that won’t be repeated here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
11-29-14 |
Syracuse v. Boston College -11.5 |
|
7-28 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
348 Syracuse at Boston College The Orangemen have a laundry list of injuries for this game. The head coach said it’s the most beat up team he has seen in his 24 years of coaching. A 3rd or 4th string player is starting at QB and MLB, two of the most important positions on a football team. The offense has really struggled as of late and will be in for a long day against this Boston College stop unit. BC on the other hand has the power running game to wear out a thin Syracuse defense. The constant pounding should really open up big holes in the second half of the game. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE
|
11-28-14 |
Northern Illinois +8 v. Western Michigan |
Top |
31-21 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 33 m |
Show
|
319 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan Experience counts and that’s a big edge for the Huskies players and coaches. Northern Illinois has dominated this league the past number of seasons, playing and winning big games on a consistent basis. After a slow start to the season as expected, the Huskies are right back where they normally are, playing a huge game late in the season.Western Michigan has been a big money maker for backers this season with some spots showing the Broncos undefeated against the spread. While on the surface that would be a terrific thing based on the past, but just the opposite when looking towards the future. Everyone who has been riding the Western Michigan money machine will be back for more here, which will and has pumped up this line. That gives a pointspread advantage to the much more experienced team. The Broncos had a great recruiting class this year and the future looks extremely bright. But this team just doesn’t have the experience to play in this type of game against a club who expected to be here where the season started. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS
|
11-27-14 |
Chicago Bears +7 v. Detroit Lions |
|
17-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 55 m |
Show
|
305 Chicago at Detroit Can’t trust the Lions here laying a full touchdown considering the current state of the team. The defense which was terrific early on is starting to regress. Injuries to key personnel has limited the once mighty pass rush, as was witnessed last week as New England threw the ball with impunity. On offense the Lions have been stagnant for most of the season as the coaching staff has pulled back the reigns on a mistake prone signal caller.Chicago has supreme offensive talent that just hasn’t lived up to the hype. The QB is very mistake prone, but with the Lions inability to get to the quarterback lately should give the Bears offense a spark. Chicago has improved defensively after the back to back 50 point implosions. With Megatron clearly not the same player because of injuries we can’t see the Lions taking advantage. We see this game coming down to one possession which gives us a nice edge with the dog.PLAY CHICAGO
|
11-22-14 |
New Mexico v. Colorado State OVER 66.5 |
|
20-58 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
163 New Mexico at Colorado State When it comes to Lobo games our first instinct is to take a look at the Over. New Mexico has an outstanding running attack that averages 6.3 yards per carry. The problem with the Lobos is that they are equally bad at stopping the run allowing 6.0 ypr. When facing defenses rated at #90 or worse the Lobos have scored 24, 38, 31 and 31 points. The Rams have third third best offense New Mexico has faced this year. In the other two games against Top 60 offenses they permitted 58 and 60 points. Colorado State is coming in off a bye which should prepare them a bit better for this option attack, it also doesn’t hurt to have another option team with Air Force on deck. But the Rams allow 4.5 ypr on the season despite facing a slew of bad running football teams. When facing defenses ranked 80 or worse Colorado State has scored 42, 31, 45, 38 and 49 points. Last year these two clubs combined for 108 points. We are looking at a repeat in that point range. PLAY OVER
|
11-22-14 |
Rutgers v. Michigan State -22 |
|
3-45 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 28 m |
Show
|
134 Rutgers at Michigan State The beat up Rutgers defense was able to survive against a weak passing one dimensional Indiana team. But that won’t be repeated here against Michigan State still trying to take out some frustrations off that Ohio State loss. The Spartans cannot only pound the rock with success but have a passing game to extend the margin. Rutgers is wearing out in its first year in the physical Big 10 Conference and we expect that to continue here. When facing a defense not ranked in the Top 50 in the nation, Michigan State has scored 73, 56, 45 and 56 points. Not only do we feel the Spartans will cover this number, they have a decent chance of taking this total over just by themselves. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE PLAY OVER
|
11-22-14 |
Rutgers v. Michigan State OVER 56.5 |
|
3-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 27 m |
Show
|
134 Rutgers at Michigan State The beat up Rutgers defense was able to survive against a weak passing one dimensional Indiana team. But that won’t be repeated here against Michigan State still trying to take out some frustrations off that Ohio State loss. The Spartans cannot only pound the rock with success but have a passing game to extend the margin. Rutgers is wearing out in its first year in the physical Big 10 Conference and we expect that to continue here. When facing a defense not ranked in the Top 50 in the nation, Michigan State has scored 73, 56, 45 and 56 points. Not only do we feel the Spartans will cover this number, they have a decent chance of taking this total over just by themselves. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE PLAY OVER
|
11-21-14 |
UTEP v. Rice OVER 51.5 |
|
13-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 10 m |
Show
|
117 UTEP at Rice The Miners have moved the ball at will against the majority of opposition this year, putting up 26 points or better against all but one opponent. In fact, only two games all season stayed under the current line on this contest. In those two games the opposition was Southern Miss and UTSA, two of the weakest offensive units in college football. Rice has been able to put points on the board when not stepping up in class against the likes of Marshall, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. In games against similar talented defenses as UTEP only once all season have the Owls not reached 28 points in a contest. The last five meetings in this series has resulted in point totals of 52, 57, 78, 68 and 59 points. In our opinion this number is cheap.PLAY OVER
|
11-17-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +7 |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
476 Pittsburgh at Tennessee The Steelers have been extremely inconsistent this season which is what you would expect from a mediocre football team. The advantage for the Steelers is it plays in a division with other middle of the road squads. The Pittsburgh defense is downright bad but it’s been masked by virtually an entire schedule of weak scoring units. Outside of the division Pittsburgh has played Carolina, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Houston and the NY Jets. The only quality offense faced was Indianapolis and the Colts scored 34 points against this Steeler defense. Tennessee doesn’t rate highly offensively either but what they do have is a coach who is well aware of this team. He was passed over when the club hired Mike Tomlin. This is also the Super Bowl game for the Titans, playing on MNF and not playing in the postseason. Home dogs aren’t what they used to be in Monday Night Football games but we feel this one has some serious bite.PLAY TENNESSEE
|
11-16-14 |
New England Patriots +3 v. Indianapolis Colts |
Top |
42-20 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 46 m |
Show
|
473 New England at IndianapolisIn what is sure to be a high scoring game we will take the veteran signal caller to do what is necessary to gain the victory. The last five games the Patriots are averaging more than 40 points per game, as the return of Gronkowski has taken this offense to another level. The amazing part of the recent offensive success is that it has come at the expense of very good defenses. The Bears are the only weak stop unit New England has faced as of yet and tonights opponent isn’t known for its defense. This is also the first game all season in a dome for New England as all the offensive damage has been done outdoors. Indy will put up points as they always do but when a defensive stop needs to be made we trust the Pats to get it done.PLAY NEW ENGLAND
|
11-15-14 |
Utah v. Stanford UNDER 43 |
Top |
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 48 m |
Show
|
356 Utah at Stanford The Utes had held every opponent faced to 28 points or less this season until that debacle last week against Oregon. We all know how that turned out after we all thought Utah had a 14-0 lead over the Ducks. Stanford has one of the weaker offensive games in which Utah has faced this year. Coming off an embarrassing performance we expect this defense to step up against a manageable foe. Stanford when facing offenses not ranked in the Top 30 have permitted zero to Army, 20 to Washington, 17 against Washington State and 14 against Oregon State. When facing a Top 30 defense Stanford has managed just 10 against USC, 20 vs Washington, 14 vs Notre Dame and 16 against Oregon. Coming off a bye after allowing a whopping 45 points to Oregon we know the defense will be primed for a bounce back. PLAY UNDER
|
11-15-14 |
Rice v. Marshall -21 |
Top |
14-41 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 60 m |
Show
|
376 Rice at Marshall The Rice Owls have been a nice story this season, but the fairy tail ends on Saturday. In looking over the Owls schedule one thing stands out, the lack of offense against somewhat quality defenses. When facing Top 75 defenses Rice has scored 17 against Notre Dame, 17 vs Texas San Antonio and 10 vs Texas A&M. That’s it. This team has feasted on bad defensive teams and Marshall will be the second best stop unit Rice has faced this year. When facing Top 75 offenses Rice has permitted 48, 38 and 45 points in the three games against somewhat quality scoring units. Marshall as we know is an elite offense despite having faced an equally poor schedule. Marshall is averaging 48 points per game, having scored 35 or more against every single opponent. The Thundering Herd also has a huge edge in special teams as the Owls are among the worst in the country in the third phase of the game. Add it all up and Marshall wins in a complete mismatch. PLAY MARSHALL
|
11-15-14 |
Temple v. Penn State UNDER 39 |
|
13-30 |
Loss |
-104 |
25 h 0 m |
Show
|
324 Temple at Penn State If you are looking for offense this is going to be a long and boring contest. Penn State played one terrible defensive team this year, Massachusetts. In that game the Nittany Lions scored 48 points. In every other game this season Penn State has averaged less than 17 points per game. While the Penn State offense is horrible the defense has been outstanding. When facing what we consider to be a Top 50 defense the Owls have scored 10 vs Houston, 14 against Central Florida and 13 vs Memphis. This Penn State stop unit is a step above each of those. PLAY UNDER
|
11-14-14 |
Tulsa v. Central Florida OVER 55 |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
32 h 26 m |
Show
|
317 Tulsa at Central Florida We believe too much emphasis on this total is attributed to early season Central Florida opposition. The Knights started the year against Penn State, Missouri, Houston and BYU. All teams that play pretty good defense. That has contributed majorly to the poor Central Florida offensive numbers. Since that time we have seen total points scored of 33, 48 and 66 against questionable offensive teams of Connecticut, Tulane and Temple. Now we get the best of both worlds with a weak Tulsa defense but an offense that can put up some points.In Tulsa’s two games against very good defenses 59 and 60 points were scored. But here is the real kicker. Against bad offensive teams Tulsa games have ended up with 69, 71, 59, 68 and 66 points. So even poor offensive teams can have success against this Golden Hurricane stop unit. This is a stand alone game on Friday night so you know the total is going to rise. Let’s get this one out now as obviously the Florida weather won’t be a factor.PLAY OVER
|
11-13-14 |
East Carolina v. Cincinnati OVER 68 |
Top |
46-54 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
311 East Carolina at Cincinnati These two teams have plenty in common when it comes to playing quality offenses, a plethora of points will be scored. Because of the general weakness of the offenses faced with these schedules the true offensive prowess of these clubs has been a bit overlooked. Against what is considered Top 50 Offensive squads these two clubs have combined for point totals of 56 and 111 for East Carolina and 92, 78 and 89 for Cincinnati. With neither of these teams ranking in the top half of defensive rankings we can look for an old fashioned shootout in this televised contest. PLAY OVER
|
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois OVER 58.5 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
303 Toledo at Northern Illinois Huge game in the division as Toledo stands 5-0 and the surging Huskies 4-1. While Northern Illinois has had great success in this conference over the last few years and Toledo has taken money virtually every week, we will look in another direction with our selection. Both teams have dynamic offenses with both able to wear out a defense with its ground game. Neither stop unit has been overly impressive this season and can be exploited. While we normally look for a conservative game plan in such a key matchup, we feel both coaches know the best way to success is relying on strong offenses. We expect this one to be a shootout.PLAY OVER
|
11-09-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 |
|
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 6 m |
Show
|
254 Miami at Detroit The Dolphins were very impressive last week in dominating the slumping San Diego Chargers. But road dogs off a shutout win at home are only 8-15 ATS according to Northcoast Sports. The Miami running game which has been so good this year should find the going tough against an excellent Detroit defensive front. The last three games the Dolphins have a +9 turnover margin, which is sure to level off. Detroit gets back two key offensive cogs on Sunday so the offense will be night and day more productive than what we have seen the last few weeks without Megatron. Off a bye we can look for a strong effort from the host who should have a sizable special teams edge. PLAY DETROIT
|
11-09-14 |
Tennessee Titans +10 v. Baltimore Ravens |
|
7-21 |
Loss |
-115 |
43 h 1 m |
Show
|
259 Tennessee at Baltimore This is the Ravens tenth straight game coming in off key divisional contests against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the two biggest rivals on the schedule. Now they take on the lowly Titans before a much needed bye next week. But are the Ravens healthy enough to lay this type of number. This is a team desperately hurting in the defensive backfield, and have permitted over 300 yards three times already this season. Tennessee has dropped 6 of 7 games heading into the bye last week. You know this squad was working hard the last two weeks trying to break out of these doldrums. Zack Mettenberger put up some impressive numbers in his NFL debut going 27 of 41 with 299 passing yards against the Texans. Now with an extra week to prepare we look for the fresher Titans to give the banged up Ravens all it can handle. PLAY TENNESSEE
|
11-08-14 |
Florida v. Vanderbilt +14.5 |
Top |
34-10 |
Loss |
-106 |
32 h 21 m |
Show
|
136 Florida at Vanderbilt Nice spot to go against the Gators here off big upset win over Georgia last week. That victory could go a long way in saving the head coaches job, but we’re not buying into a Gator turnaround. This is still a team who has serious offensive flaws and is in a spot to take the Commodores lightly. Many times when handicapping sports your first impressions are hard to ignore. Take Vanderbilt for instance. This is a team that fell off a cliff after the coaching change and looked as disorganized as possible in the early going. But teams tend to improve the second half of the season with new coaching staffs and become a nice play on squad getting inflated numbers. That’s exactly what we have here as we can see a different Commodore team than early in the year. Let’s take advantage and grab the home dog who has played hard all season. PLAY VANDERBILT
|
11-08-14 |
Louisiana Monroe +4.5 v. Appalachian State |
|
29-31 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 33 m |
Show
|
131 UL Monroe at Appalachian State In our opinion this line is an overreaction to App State’s success the last two weeks against Troy and Georgia State, two teams who have thrown in the towel on the season. Keep in mind the Hilltoppers have lost to the likes of Southern Miss and Liberty this year. While Appalachian State has a solid running game it’s the Warhawks who own the better defense. App State is just 2-2 straight up at home and this line has been over adjusted off of beating up two weak opponents. The Warhawks stood toe to toe with Texas A&M last week and are not getting the credit they deserve. An outright win would not be a surprise. PLAY UL MONROE
|
11-08-14 |
Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 68 |
|
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
|
159 Texas A&M at Auburn The Tigers have permitted 21, 38 and 35 points to similar rated offenses as the Aggies. In turn Auburn has scored 45, 59, 45 and 42 points against similarly rated defenses. The Tigers have a huge edge along the offensive line here which should keep the markers moving. A&M QB Kyle Allen was highly recruited and laid a complete egg last week against UL Monroe. But we expect a much better offensive game from the Aggies here. Texas A&M is averaging 26 points per game against the best four defenses it faced, while Auburn has the best offense Texas A&M has played this year. Lot’s of scoring and neither coach is shy about running up a score. PLAY OVER
|
11-07-14 |
Memphis v. Temple UNDER 52.5 |
|
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 11 m |
Show
|
114 Memphis at Temple This is one of the three weakest offenses the Tigers will have faced this season along with Middle Tennessee and SMU. Memphis held those two opponents to a combined 27 points. With Temple coming off its first win over a ranked foe in 16 years the Owls won’t be able to count on a +5 turnover advantage to get on the scoreboard. Temple does play solid defense and we expect the Owls to be stout this week against a Memphis squad who has feasted on the weak defenses of Middle Tennessee, Cincinnati, SMU and Tulsa this year. Both teams stop the run well and we believe this total is in part shaped by recent questionable results. PLAY UNDER
|
11-03-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 |
|
40-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
474 Indianapolis at NY Giants Must win game for the Giants who entered the bye week off back to back losses to division foes Dallas & Philadelphia. The extra week of preparation should do wonders as Manning and company continue to master this new offense. In the Coughlin era the Giants are 3-0 on Monday Night Football winning by an average margin of 15 points per game. With Seattle, San Francisco and Dallas on deck, the Giants cannot afford to drop this home game if New York has any intention of postseason play.Indy on the other hand has an extremely easy slate of games to end the season. After a bye next week the Colts have the likes of Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Washington and Tennessee on tap. With New England and Dallas likely being the toughest games remaining, the Colts don’t have the same urgency as the host. PLAY NY GIANTS
|
11-02-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
17-22 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
455 Tampa Bat at Cleveland Can’t trust the Browns in this role of high priced home favorite. Cleveland got away with it against the Raiders but Oakland was the likely right side loser. The Browns need a victory badly to remain in the divisional hunt which would likely mean a very conservative game plan to avoid turnovers. Tampa Bay hasn’t been a bet on team by any means but the talent level of these two programs isn’t that wide. PLAY TAMPA BAY
|
11-01-14 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -11 |
Top |
14-48 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 28 m |
Show
|
368 Oklahoma State at Kansas StateNow that the line has gone down a bit it’s time to jump in with one of our favorite money makers, Bill Snyder and the Kansas State Wildcats. K State is our long shot pick to make it into the Final Four as they currently sit at #9 at the moment. This is a team with a stout defense and an offense that’s dynamic but stays under the national radar. With the playoff structure in view it wouldn’t surprise us if any of the top 20 teams tack on an extra score to impress the pollsters.Oklahoma State is known as a high flying offensive squad but once the starting QB went down this team imploded. A major drop off at the quarterback position has made this team ordinary at best. The Cowboys have scored just one offensive touchdown in the last ten quarters and the going will be tough on Saturday against this stop unit. The number looks to be at least six points too low.PLAY KANSAS STATE
|
11-01-14 |
East Carolina -7 v. Temple |
Top |
10-20 |
Loss |
-116 |
66 h 29 m |
Show
|
315 East Carolina at Temple Nowhere to go but up in regards to this line movement. Pirates looked as though it went through the motions in front of a national audience on Thursday in a 31-21 victory over Connecticut. But that was a rare national stage for a bad UConn team and it left it all on the playing field. East Carolina on the other hand has higher expectations. After being criticized in the press for not distancing themselves we don’t expect East Carolina to take any prisoners here.Temple is a team fading fast and the betting public has been slow to react. The Owls were absolutely steamrolled last week against Central Florida and the first half stats were about as dominant as you will ever see for a 6 point favorite. Temple started the year fine but since that time has regressed. Early games against Vanderbilt, Navy, Connecticut and Tulsa don’t look nearly as strong now as all those teams have disappointed. PLAY EAST CAROLINA
|
10-31-14 |
Cincinnati -4 v. Tulane |
|
38-14 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 51 m |
Show
|
309 Cincinnati at Tulane The line on this game has come up short in our opinion as QB Kiel was injured again last time out for the Bearcats. While he has been impressive in his first year here backup Munchie Leqaux has plenty of starting experience and he looks to be 100% healthy. The Bearcats are off SMU & USF the past two weeks so it hasn’t been worn down by the opposition, while the team has a bye on deck. The Green Wave is coming in off a bye, but after a strong 7-6 season a year ago this program looks to have regressed to it’s pre 2013 state of 2 to 4 wins per season. While the Mean Green rarely get the ESPN cameras, the low attendance here limits any type of home field advantage. We expected this line to be 7-8 points and because of the Cincinnati quarterback situation we are getting a nice bargain with the clearly better team. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
10-30-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +3 |
|
28-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
302 New Orleans at Carolina We are well aware on the Panthers problems on the offensive line but this Saints defense is not one to put fear into the opposition. It’s the same old defense from DC Ryan we have seen his entire career. It’s amazing that Buddy Ryan’s sons have lasted this long in the league because neither have ever been considered even average at what they do. The Saints were out gained on Monday night in a contest they simply had to have. In our opinion nothing has changed from that game to make New Orleans the favorite here. The announcers even talked about the Saint coaching staff uncovering flaws of the Green Bay defense they felt they could exploit. That they did, but in our opinion it’s not a buy sign on the Saints going forward. It was one opponent, at home, in a must win situation. New Orleans is a horrible team on the road and they are traveling on a very short week. It’s bad enough to play Sunday and again on Thursday, but the Saints had to play the Sunday Night Football game. And because of the importance of that game you know New Orleans was preparing 100% for the Packers. While these two teams know each other well it still gives the advantage to the home standing Panthers who don’t need to worry about travel. PLAY CAROLINA
|
10-30-14 |
Troy +26 v. Georgia Southern |
|
10-42 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
303 Troy at Georgia Southern While it’s clear that the host should be able to run all day on the visitor, the opening line of 20 1/2 is closer to what the true number on this game should be. As we write this we are now seeing lines as high as 27 as the run happy host has taken all the early money. But while the Eagles have been big money makers for backers this year, this team is starting to be overpriced. Sports betting is not only betting teams but betting numbers, and this pendulum is about to swing the other way. Troy is down to the last four games under coach Larry Blakeney who has been in this program for 24 years. We firmly believe these kids will lay it all on the line for him the remainder of the season. While the Trojans don’t have the talent of the Eagles, the overinflated line keeps us easily in this contest. PLAY TROY
|
10-26-14 |
Oakland Raiders +7 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
13-23 |
Loss |
-120 |
41 h 5 m |
Show
|
273 Oakland at Cleveland The Raiders are playing competitive football but they just can’t get over the hump. With Jacksonville getting its first win last week Oakland is now the only winless team in the league. That should bring extra motivation for the visitor who has played pretty well the last few years in the eastern time zone. Cleveland had a major letdown last week after knocking off the hated Steelers. The offense was nonexistent and a major reason in our opinion was the loss of the starting center from the previous week. Cleveland doesn’t have All-Star skill position talent so we can’t see the Browns distancing themselves here. PLAY OAKLAND
|
10-26-14 |
Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans +3 |
|
30-16 |
Loss |
-100 |
38 h 53 m |
Show
|
266 Houston at Tennessee Tough bounce back here for the Texans who completely fell apart Monday night at Pittsburgh. The Steelers continued to prove they are just a shell of their former selves, while the Texans continue to find ways to lose for the second straight year. Going on the road in a short week is not the magic elixir for the Texans. Zack Mettenberger gets the call at quarterback for the Titans and the line quickly adjusted with possible 3 1/2’s on the way. But really is this a drop off at all? Mettenburger was a highly thought of signal caller before the draft and the Titans made a great pick in our opinion getting him in the sixth round. And what are the alternatives for Tennessee. A constantly injured mediocre Jack Locker or a career fringe player in Charlie Whitehurst. We will take a shot here with a home dog that isn’t far away in talent from the Texans at this point. PLAY TENNESSEE
|
10-26-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 51 m |
Show
|
268 Baltimore at Cincinnati Coming into the season the line on this game would be Cincinnati -3. With Baltimore at 5-3 and Cincinnati at 3-2-1 this is a must win game for the Bengals who are once again unedited at home this year. Cincinnati plays far better in this building and we all know Joe Flacco isn’t the same QB on the road. People who make money in the stock market buy low and sell high. That is a great analogy for this contest. The Ravens have looked great as of late while the Bengals have looked terrible. That gives us a nice edge with the home dog who has taken next to no money thus far from the public. As we know if everyone is on one side you want to take the other. This is the NFL after all. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
10-26-14 |
Detroit Lions -3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons |
|
22-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
34 h 25 m |
Show
|
251 Detroit & Atlanta in London Detroit has a huge edge in the trenches, especially when Atlanta has the ball. The Falcons simply cannot protect Matt Ryan and this could be a nightmare game for him. Atlanta is dead last in the league defending the pass, Detroit even without Calvin Johnson can take advantage. The Lions have only hurt themselves with missed field goals this season which is a huge anomaly. The Falcons are in a major free fall and this team is much worse when playing away from home. While we don’t have a play on the total keep in mind these London games over the years have easily surpassed the posted total. Maybe Detroit points over is an additional thought. PLAY DETROIT
|
10-25-14 |
Ohio State v. Penn State +14 |
|
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
56 h 30 m |
Show
|
196 Ohio State at Penn StatePenn State has had two byes in the past three weeks. That’s a huge advantage for a first year coach in the program in James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 13 points per game at home. Holding their three opponents to 10, 17 and 4 points below their season scoring averages. Penn State allows just 61 rushing yards a game which is Ohio State’s strength. They have been on the road just once in the past six weeks. Ohio State hasn’t been tested since the Virginia Tech loss. Not a single team Ohio State has played is having a good year. Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent St, Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers have all underperformed. We really don’t know how good this Ohio State team is and it’s much better at home than on the road. PLAY PENN STATE
|
10-25-14 |
Ole Miss -3 v. LSU |
|
7-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
128 h 41 m |
Show
|
171 Mississippi at LSU Our stats say the Rebels are the best team in the country and this team has proven that letdowns aren't an obstacle. LSU had a great game against Kentucky but overall have been a disappointment. We fully expect the visitor to win this one by a touchdown. PLAY MISSISSIPPI
|
10-25-14 |
Temple v. Central Florida -7 |
|
14-34 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 33 m |
Show
|
136 Temple at Central FloridaBoth teams stand at 4-2 on the season but the Knights have faced the much tougher schedule. In fact, Temple last faced one of the ten easiest schedules in the country. Only Houston has a real chance of gong bowling out of the six teams the Owls have played and the Cougars beat Temple 31-10 last week. Central Florida is very tough against the run which puts the onus on QB PJ Walker for the Owls who was just 27 for 60 the past two games. The Knights by the way beat Houston on the road 17-12. Cheap number for a team on the rise.PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA
|
10-25-14 |
West Virginia +2.5 v. Oklahoma State |
|
34-10 |
Win
|
100 |
124 h 49 m |
Show
|
191 West Virginia at Oklahoma StateNormally we would look to back a team off an embarrassing performance and fade a team off a big win. But when the clear better team is getting points we will buck traditional handicapping. The Mountaineers are legit and the Cowboys just aren’t up to previous editions. West Virginia has the better quickness as Oklahoma State has major problems on both sides of the ball.PLAY WEST VIRGINIA
|
10-25-14 |
Kent State v. Miami (OH) -6 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
120 h 27 m |
Show
|
156 Kent State at Miami OhioThe Golden Flashes took advantage of an Army team that does not travel well in gaining the victory last week at home. Kent has had a very trying year after losing key players in the off season and the tragic death of the starting center. The win was great for the players but it isn’t any type of buy sign on this club.Miami is playing better and better each week and we see clear improvement from this football team. This is a chance for the Redhawks to beat up on a team they have advantages against. The number is cheap.PLAY MIAMI OHIO
|
10-25-14 |
Memphis v. SMU UNDER 49.5 |
|
48-10 |
Loss |
-102 |
48 h 42 m |
Show
|
162 Memphis at SMUThe Tigers just finished its toughest part of the schedule and now finishes the year with a bunch of weak opponents. After facing SMU the Tigers tangle with the likes of Tulsa, Temple, Tulane, South Florida and Connecticut. At 3-3 on the season Memphis is virtually assured of making a bowl game. Which makes us leery of the Tigers running up the score here. This club knows running between the tackles will but points on the board and in doing so the clock keeps running. Why put Paxton Lynch in jeopardy? SMU on the other hand has scored six points or less in all but one game this season. With a bye on deck the very thin Mustangs will likely want this one to end as soon as possible to get to the week off and recuperate. SMU has been pounded by pass first mentality teams all year and the Tigers rush the ball on average 48 times per game. Look for the Tigers to have a real shot at a shootout here which gives us a comfortable play on the under.PLAY UNDER
|
10-23-14 |
Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49 |
|
30-6 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 21 m |
Show
|
108 Miami Florida at Virginia Tech Huge game in ACC Coastal action as both squads sit at 1-2 at the moment. That likely means a more conservative game plan from both squads. Virginia Tech hasn’t lived up to offensive promise this year after Michael Brewer looked like an upgrade at the quarterback position. Defensively the Hokies are stout holding talented offenses like East Carolina and North Carolina to 28 and 17 points. Only East Carolina and Georgia Tech have managed more than 21 against Virginia Tech and we doubt a freshman signal caller will have great success in this one. Miami has padded their offensive stats against bad defensive teams such as Florida A&M, Arkansas State and Cincinnati. The best defense they faced this season was Louisville and the Hurricanes only managed 13 points in that contest. We expect a low scoring affair with the loser likely out of the divisional race.PLAY UNDER
|
10-19-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams |
Top |
26-28 |
Loss |
-108 |
23 h 43 m |
Show
|
459 Seattle at St Louis Sometimes the obvious play is the right play and we feel that is the case in this contest. Despite last week’s result the Seahawks remain the team to beat in the NFC this year. Off an embarrassing performance in which the team was dominated, we expect a huge bounce back from Seattle. We like to play on teams off a bad loss when facing a team they know they can beat, that’s the case this week. Seattle s 16-2 SU against the Rams. Seattle has been a money maker on the road even though its home field edge is well known. St Louis can’t stop the run and only has one sack on the season. That means Seattle should be able to do anything it wants offensively in this contest. Rookie QB Davis has looked good at times but he had zero time to set last week against the 49ers. We see more of the same here with an even better stop unit. PLAY SEATTLE
|
10-18-14 |
Clemson -4.5 v. Boston College |
|
17-13 |
Loss |
-109 |
45 h 42 m |
Show
|
375 Clemson at Boston College Our top play last week was the Tigers and despite posting a combined 3 points on two separate first and goal opportunities we still had a chance for the cover. Despite having our stud starting QB go down early the Tigers fought hard and gained the victory. Now with Watson sidelined for 4-6 weeks the money is flowing in on the Eagles. But as is often the case the line has moved too far away from the injured players team which presents us a nice opportunity to get our money back on the Tigers. Boston College beat NC State on the road last week in a very advantageous scheduling situation. While the Eagles were off a bye the Wolf Pack had just played Clemson and Florida State in back to back weeks. The obvious strength of this BC team is the running attack but Clemson only permits 3.0 yards per attempt on the ground. The last five games the Tigers have surrendered 1.4, 3.2, 2.8, 0.5 and 0.3 yards per carry. Boston College could be in real trouble if the ground game fails as the Eagles largest passing game on the season has been 173 yards. PLAY CLEMSON
|
10-18-14 |
New Mexico v. Air Force -10 |
|
31-35 |
Loss |
-100 |
45 h 42 m |
Show
|
344 New Mexico at Air Force Rare revenge game for the Flyboys here as Air Force has won 8 of 10 in this series but lost last year at home 45-37. Both teams are off bad performances but in a battle of option attacks we will back the team doing it longer in Air Force. The Falcon defense is much superior against the run, by a huge 3.0 yards per carry margin. Only Texas San Antonio and New Mexico State failed to run for at least 6.0 yards per carry against the Lobos. Air Force had strung together three straight wins over the likes of Boise State and Navy before a -3 turnover game cost them dearly against Utah State a week ago. New Mexico has won the turnover battle by a whopping eight the last four games and still the Lobos split the contests. Air Force has a big edge on the offensive line and should run the ball all day against this very questionable stop unit. PLAY AIR FORCE
|
10-18-14 |
Eastern Michigan +14.5 v. UMass |
|
14-36 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 15 m |
Show
|
333 Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts This has to be one of the least popular match ups on the entire 2014 college football betting board. But we don’t need to anticipate watching this game to cash a ticket. Both teams are off rare wins last week as both the Eagles and the Minutemen won its first FBS game of the season. Eastern Michigan made a change at quarterback and it sparked the squad over a Buffalo team who looked lost after the opening quarter. The Eagles have had three games when it lost the turnover battle by 5, 5 and 4. In the other three games Eastern was very competitive losing by a combined one point. UMass doesn’t have a defense that puts pressure on the quarterback with just 6 sacks through 7 games. Therefore we expect the Eagles to battle this squad toe to toe for the vast majority of the game. The Minutemen have a very small home field advantage playing in a nearly empty Gillette Stadium. The campus is too far removed to have hardly any student support. While UMass can put points on the board against about anybody, keep in mind it has allowed 30 points or more against all but one opponent. That being a very bad Kent State team last week. Massachusetts is the better team but not by the market number of over two touchdowns. The best role for UMass is as an underdog, not a sizable favorite. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN
|
10-18-14 |
Akron -3 v. Ohio |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-102 |
44 h 13 m |
Show
|
319 Akron at Ohio U Don’t look now but the Zips are 8-3 its last 11 games as coach Bowden is pointing this team in a positive direction. Akron is looking to avenge an embarrassing 43-3 loss to these Bobcats a season ago. The Zips currently own the top defense in the Mid-American Conference. QB Pohl has been listed as out for this contest but the drop off at QB isn’t nearly as drastic as the line would have you believe. We had Akron favored by 9 with Pohl and he is not a 6 point player. Very few quarterbacks are at this level, especially in a conference like the MAC which is down this year. This overreaction in the marketplace gives us a nice price on the far better team.Ohio U is also playing with a backup signal caller as the Bobcats are very thin at many positions. Akron owns the better defense, better overall talent and 40 point home loss revenge. We expect a double digit victory.PLAY AKRON
|
10-12-14 |
Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 |
|
37-37 |
Loss |
-101 |
48 h 34 m |
Show
|
264 Carolina at Cincinnati The Panthers were a play against team in the season win markets as a regression was predicted by many. But to its credit Carolina has been able to pull out some games it probably should have lost. The defense is no where near as strong as a year ago and because of injuries at QB and RB the Panthers have become a one dimensional team offensively. The Bengals were a perfect 3-0 heading into the bye and played as if it looked past the declining Patriots. That’s a major lesson learned for this squad looking to get over the playoff hump. Now off an embarrassing performance we fully expect the Bengals to rebound in a big way. With AJ Green declared out we now have to lay less than a touchdown with a team that has been a win and cover machine at home. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
10-12-14 |
Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 31 m |
Show
|
260 Green Bay at Miami Not sure we are willing to buy into the theory that the pack is back. Green Bay has faced off against some poor defenses as of late. In three road games this season the Packers have been out gained by 143, 130 and 138 yards. With Carolina and New Orleans on deck the Packers have bigger conference fish to fry on the horizon. Miami is coming off a bye after manhandling the Raiders in London. The Dolphins should be able to run all over this Green Bay defense which has been weak against the run, allowing 4.6 ypr while the Dolphins rush for 5.0 ypr. Nice value here on the non-public home dog. PLAY MIAMI
|
10-12-14 |
New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 |
|
37-22 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 30 m |
Show
|
266 New England at Buffalo Overreactions happen all the time in the NFL and the Patriots are a prime example. After getting pounded by the Chiefs the media attacked New England and even stated that Tom Brady was basically done. As expected New England played with pride last week and bounced back in a big way. But despite playing the weakest schedule in the league and owning a +6 turnover margin the Patriots are only 3-2 on the season. The way to beat the Patriots is to stop the run, which Buffalo does very well, and put pressure on Tom Brady. The Bills rank 3rd in the league in sacks. In games in which Brady has been sacked 3 or more times this year the Pats have been outscored 74-34. Buffalo averages three sacks per game. With veteran Orton at the controls he is less likely to make the key mistake that could cost the Bills the game. PLAY BUFFALO
|
10-11-14 |
Air Force +7 v. Utah State |
|
16-34 |
Loss |
-106 |
85 h 28 m |
Show
|
189 Air Force at Utah State Huge wins for both programs last week as Air Force has gotten a leg up for the Commander in Chief Trophy with a solid win over Navy. Utah State on the other hand won for the first time in 18 visits to Provo, as the Aggies hadn’t won there since 1978. While both teams are primed for a letdown we put our faith in the military men to overcome the distraction over the mormon men. It’s a special trip for the Air Force players as the team is not chartering a flight as normal, but will be strapping in to an actual Air Force plane many of these players will actually be flying in the coming years. Utah State in knocking off BYU won against the highest ranked team in Aggies history. They also did so in front of a national television audience. While a major reason for the victory was the devastating injury to the BYU signal caller, the Aggies had a solid lead before Hill left the game. Last year Utah State scored 31 unanswered points to win going away in this contest. We are sure the Flyboys fully remember that collapse. In this battle of possible letdown squads we will take the generous points with the Falcons.PLAY AIR FORCE
|
10-11-14 |
Toledo v. Iowa State -2.5 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
91 h 46 m |
Show
|
164 Toledo at Iowa State Money has consistently come in on the Rockets and Toledo continues to disappoint backers. The linemakers correctly set the opening number this week and once again a group pounded the Rockets. This group either has unlimited resources or has no clue about what they are doing. Likely a combination of both. Toledo had to go to overtime last week against Western Michigan and we always like to fade teams off an overtime victory. Toledo is currently undefeated in the MAC and this game has no bearing on a conference championship.Iowa State on the other hand needs every win possible in an attempt to become bowl eligible. The Cyclones have played the second toughest schedule in the nation with the five opponents posting a 22-3 record with two of the losses to Florida State and Auburn. With a 1-4 record and games against Oklahoma and TCU on the remaining schedule Iowa State needs this win like blood. Paul Rhodes is at his best in the home favorite role and the Cyclones can take advantage of a smaller Rockets squad.PLAY IOWA STATE
|
10-11-14 |
Louisville v. Clemson -11.5 |
Top |
17-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
118 h 6 m |
Show
|
174 Louisville at Clemson Even though we fully expect QB Will Gardner and WR DeVante Parker to return for this game, we feel the line is a bit short with the Tigers. Both players are returning from injury so we can’t expect either to be 100% if they do play. And there is always a chance that either or both could miss the game because of lingering problems. Coach Petrino talked about the scoring unit in his weekly presser and he referred to having a limited offense. Both inexperience at the quarterback position and lack of protection in the offensive line. Neither is a positive when taking on one of the best defensive fronts in college football. Clemson off a shutout of NC State will be primed for another shutdown performance.Under QB DeShaun Watson the Tigers have been dynamic offensively. He has a cannon for an arm and the pro scouts must be salivating with his ability. He put up 266 passing yards off the bench against Florida State and led his team to a combined 91 points in two starts against North Carolina and NC State. To put up 50 points the week after losing the heartbreaker to the Seminoles tells us all about the talent of this Clemson offense. We expect this line to climb so get in now with the Tigers.PLAY CLEMSON
|
10-05-14 |
NY Jets v. San Diego Chargers -6.5 |
Top |
0-31 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 40 m |
Show
|
474 NY Jets at San Diego The Jets have a solid defensive front but the secondary has major problems. That’s not a good sign considering the Chargers don't rely on running the football. San Diego throws downfield and uses the short passing game to make up for a lack of a running attack. That bodes well in this one by taking away the best part of this Jets team.Huge edge in coaching and quarterbacks here and the Jets coast to coast travel adds to the New York problems. The Jets continue to find ways to lose games while the Chargers are looking like a real contender here. Very surprised this game is lined less than a touchdown.PLAY SAN DIEGO
|
10-04-14 |
Nebraska v. Michigan State -7 |
|
22-27 |
Loss |
-111 |
82 h 30 m |
Show
|
410 Nebraska at Michigan State Early money came in on the underdog here but we can’t see a reason why. The Huskers have only one victory against a decent Miami team while padding the schedule with the likes of Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Fresno State and Illinois. Nebraska had a huge edge in talent in every game except Miami which recruits on par with the Cornhuskers. RB Ameer Abdullah is a stud, no doubt about it but this will be by far the toughest defense he has faced. And speaking of defense the Nebraska numbers look far better than they actually are. They faced a freshman QB in a tough road environment against Miami, and Illinois was without its starter last week. The QB’s for the first three opponents are not exactly highly thought of. Michigan State has played a similar schedule but did travel to Eugene to face the speed of the Oregon Ducks. Those who remember that game are well aware of the Spartans leading that game well into the second half before succumbing to Oregon 46-27. But keep in mind one of the nations top four teams only out gained the Spartans by 25 total yards. It was a -2 in the turnover margin that helps the Ducks pull away late. That game against Oregon on the road was more telling about this Michigan State team than anything Nebraska has accomplished. While Nebraska has won 2 of the last 3 meetings we believe the Spartans have another huge edge in coaching in this contest. Michigan State was burned by 5.7 yards per rush in last years game which was 2.6 ypr higher than in any other regular season game. We expect Mark Dantonio and his staff to address that critical flaw from a season ago. This number is cheap and likely to rise. Get this one in now as we buck the initial line move.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
10-04-14 |
UMass v. Miami (OH) -3.5 |
|
41-42 |
Loss |
-105 |
52 h 9 m |
Show
|
348 Massachusetts at Miami Ohio Tough scheduling spot here for the Minutemen who started the season playing four teams from the power five conferences, and then hosting Bowling Green in the first true home game in Amherst since 2011. Despite having 3 of those 5 games at home and facing likely conference bottom tier squads, the Minutemen have still been out gained by 120 yards per game. While the offense has improved the defense has yielded 30, 41, 34, 48 and 47 points this season.Miami has dropped 21 straight games heading into this contest. But it’s clear the Redhawks are an improved club. It has played 3 of 5 games on the road and have only been out gained by 69 yards per contest. In a game priced in this range special teams could be a key and Miami has a large edge in that regard as UMass has one of the worst ST units in college football. Redhawks get the monkey off its back with a 10 point victory.PLAY MIAMI OHIO
|
10-02-14 |
Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Florida International |
|
10-38 |
Loss |
-109 |
55 h 37 m |
Show
|
303 Florida Atlantic at Florida International Florida Atlantic stands at just 2-3 on the season but this is a club that faced the likes of Nebraska and Alabama. QB Jaquez Johnson is a talented signal caller who could very well be the best player on the field. That’s a big advantage against the freshman quarterback of FIU. In last years contest the Owl defense held the Panthers to just 1.3 yards per carry. If that plays out again the Panthers will be forced to throw the ball which is a sizable advantage for the visitor. FIU hasn’t run the ball effectively all year. The host is coming off an improbable win over UAB as the Panthers had a 6-0 turnover advantage. In the first five games of the season FIU has a +10 turnover advantage. The biggest seasonal advantage in turnovers for this team in the last seven seasons was +5 in 2011. After going 1-11 last year the Panthers look improved but critics are still concerned about the sideline work of Ron Turner who has never tasted success. This offense is extremely weak and can’t count on the big plays or the special teams success it used last Saturday against UAB.PLAY FLORIDA ATLANTIC
|
09-28-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 16 m |
Show
|
263 Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh NFL handicapping 101 says to play on a team after a terrible performance and fade a squad off a great game. That’s even magnified when one of the teams played on national television. Tampa Bay gave up 56 points last week to the Falcons after allowing just 20 and 19 the first two games of the season. The quarterback injury isn’t a huge concern as Glennon has started many times in this backfield. Pittsburgh put up 37 on Carolina who had no offensive answer with major injuries to the running attack. Those RB & QB injuries made the Panthers one dimensional which played into the Steelers hands. Pittsburgh suffered some major defensive injuries in that game and Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been overly successful when healthy in the early going. PLAY TAMPA BAY
|
09-27-14 |
Oregon State v. USC -9 |
|
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 33 m |
Show
|
170 Oregon State at USC Trojans laying what we consider to be a cheap number after having last week off after the embarrassing loss at Boston College. As bad as Arizona State looked Thursday night the Sun Devil revenge angle shouldn’t be a factor for the game next week.Oregon State takes a major step up this week after tangling with Portland State, Hawaii and San Diego state. The Beavers have lost 22 straight visits to Southern Cal and it takes on a USC squad primed for a rebound. Easier time on deck as Oregon State travels to Colorado in seven days.PLAY USC
|
09-27-14 |
Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) |
Top |
10-22 |
Loss |
-109 |
102 h 56 m |
Show
|
179 Duke at Miami Florida First real test of the season for the Blue Devils who step up in class after facing Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. But this is a team that has now won 12 of 13 games heading into this contest with just two losses by more than 3 points in the last 1 1/3 seasons. Duke has a running attack that can find success against the Hurricanes who have shown an inability to stop the run. Last year Duke amassed 358 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per carry against this stop unit. The Blue Devils beat Miami 48-30 as a home underdog and not much has changed with these two programs.Miami had success against weaklings like Florida A&M and Arkansas State, but this team struggled when stepping up in class against the likes of Louisville and Nebraska. Miami has a great deal of talent on defense but this club just doesn’t play well as a team defensively. So while Miami has revenge on its mind it’s the Blue Devils who have the equal to superior team.PLAY DUKE
|
09-27-14 |
Central Michigan +15 v. Toledo |
|
28-42 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 21 m |
Show
|
137 Central Michigan at Toledo The Chippewas haven’t impressed on the scoreboard much in the early going with a 2-2 record. But the offense should be greatly improved this week with the reinstatement of RB Rawls and the probable return of WR Davis. This team has been very inconsistent offensively but the defense has been up to the task. Money has consistently flowed with the Rockets this year in the early going and those Toledo bettors have been disappointed. Big money against Missouri was wasted and last week against Ball State the same thing occurred. Once again the line on this game was bet up off the opener and we still don’t understand why. While the offense is strong the defense remains very poor. It’s tough to lay points with a club that never has a safe lead because of a sieve of a defense. This game with be decided by a single score. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
09-27-14 |
Northwestern v. Penn State -10 |
|
29-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
67 h 34 m |
Show
|
136 Northwestern at Penn State With a victory last week over Western Illinois the Wildcats are now on a 2-9 run with victories over an FCS squad and Illinois. This is a team with no downfield passing game and a hobbled quarterback with ankle problems. There are also rumblings of discontent in Pat Fitzgerald’s locker room. Penn State has beaten the Wildcats six straight times by a 15 point average margin. Last week the Nittany Lions crushed UMass and word out of State College before that game was a lack of interest. To dominate like they did without a fully focused effort was impressive. Now heading into a bye next week we don’t expect any lethargic play from the host here. PLAY PENN STATE
|
09-21-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Carolina Panthers -3 |
|
37-19 |
Loss |
-113 |
34 h 56 m |
Show
|
478 Pittsburgh at Carolina The Steelers for years have been a team that had a solid defense and didn’t make mistakes in special teams play. That’s no longer the case as Pittsburgh looks to be on the decline. Despite playing two of the worst offensive teams in the NFL in Baltimore and Cleveland, the Steelers permitted 27 and 26 points. The run defense is ranked 29th in the league. The last six quarters of play Pittsburgh has been simply dominated. The offense is a middle of the pack group and we have serious concerns about this once proud franchise. Carolina was expected to slip this year as the under took heavy action in the season win futures. But the Panthers continue to overachieve with a solid 2-0 start allowing just 21 combined points. While Carolina isn’t one of the better offensive teams the defense is outstanding. The Panthers sit at +6 in turnovers after two games so some regression is expected. But this Pittsburgh defense doesn’t look like the opportunistic teams of the past. PLAY CAROLINA
|
09-21-14 |
Houston Texans -119 v. NY Giants |
Top |
17-30 |
Loss |
-119 |
48 h 34 m |
Show
|
457 Houston at NY Giants The Texans are not in the best travel situation by playing an early game on the east coast after being in Oakland last week. But that’s not a huge concern for a team that had the kind of season Houston had last year. The Texans started 2-0 and the wheels came out from under them. Now they once again sit at 2-0 so this game should bring a larger than average focus.The Giants just stink right now. The new offense hasn’t been picked up well by Manning and the team looks to be going through the motions. Arizona played the late Monday Night Football game and had to travel to the east coast for an early start last week. An hour before game time the starting quarterback was ruled out. Yet the Cardinals still won. That tells you how bad this New York team is right now. The Giants went 4-0 in the preseason but it was the deep backups who won the games in the second half. The starters struggled just as they have in this regular season.PLAY HOUSTON
|
09-20-14 |
Oklahoma -7 v. West Virginia |
Top |
45-33 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 10 m |
Show
|
389 Oklahoma at West Virginia We talked last week about Bob Stoops and his hatred of the SEC. That was part of the reason for our opinion on the Sooners. This week he talked about making a statement against West Virginia because they hung in tough against SEC entrant Alabama. Oklahoma is a legit national title contender who will look to make a statement here against an improved Mountaineer club. Keep in mind last year West Virginia held the Sooners to just 16 points in a 16-7 Oklahoma victory. That 16 points was the smallest Oklahoma home point total since scoring 19 against Kansas State and 13 against Notre Dame in the 2012 season. Both those clubs were ranked in the Top 15 when the Sooners faced them. What did Oklahoma do against those clubs last year? 2-0 straight up and ATS covering the number by 25 1/2 combined points. West Virginia is an improved club under Dana Holgerson but keep in mind since his arrival the team won 10, 7 and 4 games heading into 2014. Overall you can grade his work in Morgantown as unsatisfactory. West Virginia is just 2-3 ATS as a home dog in his tenure and after opening in the 12 point range this line has been pounded down to 7. That’s just too much of an adjustment as we step in with a cheap number on the Sooners.PLAY OKLAHOMA
|
09-20-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Arkansas OVER 65 |
|
14-52 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 52 m |
Show
|
381 Northern Illinois at Arkansas The Huskies have won 17 straight on the road including a ten point victory last week in Las Vegas. Now this club faces a major defensive challenge against a huge Arkansas offensive line. MAC teams as a whole are smaller in the trenches and the Razorbacks are bigger than the majority of NFL offensive lines. That means plenty of running plays for the hogs against what will be a tired Northern Illinois defense in the second half. That could be especially true after playing in the desert heat last Saturday.While the defense is sure to struggle the Huskies can put points on the board. This is a talented offense that likes to get up and down the field as fast as possible. With a winning pedigree you know there will be a never say die attitude with the Huskies.PLAY OVER
|
09-20-14 |
Bowling Green +27 v. Wisconsin |
|
17-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 22 m |
Show
|
325 Bowling Green at Wisconsin This line has moved the wrong way in our opinion as the Badgers have taken way too much money along the way. It’s now time to jump in with the underdog at a nice bargain price. BG has a new coaching staff that installed new schemes on both sides of the ball. The team struggled early on in picking up the changes and it showed on the scoreboard right out of the gate. But now with more experience we feel it’s a great time to back the Falcons against what could very well be another overrated Big Ten squad.Wisconsin has the ability to run the ball at will here on Saturday and we expect the Badgers to put up a good number of points. It’s the Wisconsin defense that can be exploited by a Bowling Green offense which will have them on their heels all afternoon. BG tries to go as fast as possible and that’s not the preferred pace for the Badgers. That leaves Wisconsin vulnerable as the game progresses and keeps our dog in play throughout.PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
09-18-14 |
Auburn -8.5 v. Kansas State |
|
20-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 14 m |
Show
|
303 Auburn at Kansas State The Tigers lost just a single road game last year in a 14 point spread covering loss at LSU. This is a team that has impressed over the last nine games with outright wins over Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama and Missouri. Gus Malzahn is an offensive genius and the fast pace of this Auburn offense will have Kansas State on its heals all game.Playing in Manhattan in a Thursday night atmosphere is never an easy thing to do. But as much as we love and respect coach Snyder this team just doesn’t have the horses to compete for the entire game. After an 11 win season in 2012 the Wildcats dropped to 8-5 a year ago. With just 11 returning starters this team doesn’t look equipped to trade points with the Tigers. Speed kills and the visitor owns the edge in bunches.PLAY AUBURN
|
09-14-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 v. Washington Redskins |
|
10-41 |
Loss |
-109 |
20 h 42 m |
Show
|
255 Jacksonville at Washington Over the last ten regular season games played between these two squads it’s clear that the wrong team is favored here. Not only do the Jaguars have a much better record, but the future is clearly higher for the Florida squad. Jacksonville even in times in which the team lacked competitive talent, always gave a full effort. The same cannot be said of the team from the nation’s capital. The Jaguars have a large edge in special teams here that isn’t being factored into the line. The kicker and the special teams as a whole have the ability to decide this game that likely comes down to the wire. Washington has one of the weakest home field edges in the league while Jacksonville is better on the road than at home. PLAY JACKSONVILLE
|
09-14-14 |
New England Patriots v. Minnesota Vikings +6 |
|
30-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 32 m |
Show
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262 New England at Minnesota The Patriots off a loss have been money in the bank with Brady & Belichick at the helm. But we’re not so sure this team has the skill position players to continue that dominance. Let’s face it Tom Brady is no longer a spring chicken, and while he is a certain Hall of Famer his skills may be in a steep decline. Minnesota is an up and coming team that is being trading highly in the betting markets. This is a club that won’t be under the radar for much longer, especially if it performs as we expect this Sunday. The line before the Adrian Peterson suspension was New England -3. Now we are seeing the Patriots favored by 6 points. While the Peterson hole is a factor, moving off the key number of 3, past the key number of 4, and settling at the key number of 6 is just too much of an adjustment. Keep in mind without Peterson last year the Vikings won both games beating Philadelphia and Detroit, covering by a combined 27 points. PLAY MINNESOTA
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09-14-14 |
Arizona Cardinals +1 v. NY Giants |
Top |
25-14 |
Win
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100 |
120 h 25 m |
Show
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259 Arizona at NY Giants Short week for both these squads but the Cardinals new offense showed some signs in the second half against the Chargers. The same cannot be said of the Giants. New York was facing a very young secondary and yet could not exploit the Lions by throwing downfield. Without that ability it’s hard to see Eli Manning and company having any success here. The Giants refuse to open the field and that running game won’t have success against this Arizona front seven. We expect the visitor to go off the favorite in this game so we are releasing this one early.PLAY ARIZONA
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