Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - The extra rest here will serve both teams well. Not only did they have some time off between the conference finals and these NBA Finals, they now also have 2 full off days between Game 1 and Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Also, after this, the teams will have 2 more full off days before Game 3 as the series then shifts east. The point is that the players are rested and they know they have more rest coming. As a result, there will be no holding back on Sunday evening and I expect plenty of big scoring runs. The Cavaliers are 39-18 to the over when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more and that includes 17-8 this season. Now, of course, I know Game 1 included OT but, keep in mind, it went over the total before overtime. Also, it is hard to be impressed with the Cavaliers defense when one considers that the Warriors did hit over 50% from the field for the game, scored 17 points in OT (just 5 minutes), and scored at least 27 points in 3 of the 4 quarters in the game. Of course LeBron James is going to get his points and the Warriors showed in Game 1 they're not going to stop him. In fact, the Cavs scored at least 26 points in 3 of the 4 quarters. The point is that if a "normal" quarter is at least 27-26 (53 points) you can see why I like the over in this match-up. Adding to the value is that neither team shot as well as they normally do from three point land in Game 1. Look for better outside shooting in Game 2 and the Cavaliers will once again be very determined after falling just short in Game 1. That said, I expect this game to still be close enough late to encourage late fouls and plenty of "scramble points" at the end should we need them. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +13 v. Warriors | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Of course this game is televised on ABC so that is where the play title comes from but truly the hope is that this cover is indeed as "Easy as ABC" tonight. The fact is that the Warriors barely got by a Rockets team sans Chris Paul in the final two games of the series and that also short horrific from three point land. Of course Houston relies heavily on the 3-ball so the nearly unbelievably poor shooting from downtown was ultimately the nail in the coffin for the Rockets. Now, after winning by only 9 at Houston in Game 7 despite the Rockets being without Paul and unable to "throw the ball in the ocean" (their shooting was so OFF!), the Warriors are as high as a 13 point favorite against a Cavaliers team that is starting to believe they can pull off the unthinkable. Keep in mind, Boston is VERY well-coached and yet the Cavaliers still managed to get past the Celtics in Boston in Game 7 with a valiant effort by LeBron James and Company. The Warriors, in the Rockets series, certainly haven't looked as invincible as they have in the past and the Cavs are well aware of the fact that they are being given absolutely "no chance" in this series. Highly motivated and well rested, LeBron and his eager teammates are absolutely going to hang around in this game one and put up a big challenge to the Warriors. Simply put, I just don't see this game being decided by more than single digits. Cavs are 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and the Warriors are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - I will not be surprised if Chris Paul plays tonight and if he is also very effective. However, even if he doesn't, one should not forget that the Rockets (sans Paul) led the Warriors by double digits at the half on Saturday and that game was at Golden State. Yes they got blown out in the second half but Houston certainly garnered some confidence from that first half performance and now they get Game 7 at home. The Rockets are 41-9 SU at home this season and 21-6 SU when playing with revenge and 15-3 SU when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Houston offense has certainly struggled for long stretches on the road in these playoffs but the Rockets have averaged 112 points per game in their last 7 home games and I expect a huge performance tonight. The Warriors are a long-term 6-10 SU when tied in a playoff series and that includes 2-3 SU and ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In other words they are far from "automatic" in a spot like this and the fact is that these points are very generous. The Warriors have covered only 22 of their last 60 versus teams with a winning record! Golden State is 9-16 (36%) ATS their last 25 road games. I am expecting the upset here but am grabbing the points because if the Rockets do fall short it is likely to be by just a bucket or two. They are not going down without a fight here whether Paul plays or not. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Well aware of the fact that the Celtics are 10-0 at home in the post-season. Also well aware of the fact that the Cavaliers are without Kevin Love for this game. However, after he went out in Game 6 (head injury), the Cavs were "off and running" thanks in large part to LeBron James. The fact is I simply can not play against him in a Game 7. While it is true that one man does not make a team, he is also a leader for this Cavaliers team and the fact is that his team has a 5-0 record in his last 5 Game 7's. The last loss was all the way back in 2008 and, ironically, that defeat came at the hands of the Celtics. However, this is LeBron's 15th season and that game was 10 years ago! James has matured, of course, a ton since then and I look for his team record in Game 7 match-ups to make it 6 in a row on Sunday night! I know venue has had a lot do with it but lets also not forget that the Celtics have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series. It is hard to believe that with coaching adjustments at half-time (Brad Stevens is a fantastic coach) and with Love being out of the game, the Celtics still couldn't close this out in Game 6. Boston has had so many chances to really truly take a stranglehold on this series (after being up 2-0) and they just never did it. Now they pay the ultimate price for that in my opinion. It is VERY rare for a 7-game series to go 7 games and have the home team win every single game and I look for this one to avoid that rare exception in the record books too. Remember James and Company won Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2016 at Golden State! I am calling for the upset but will grab the points being offered! 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - The way I see it the Cavs had their chance in this series and blew it in Game 5. Cleveland had all the momentum after winning big in Games 3 and 4 at home but then went and laid an egg on the road Wednesday. Knowing that Game 7 would also be on the road and that Boston is a perfect 10-0 at home in the post-season, this is in the back of the minds of the Cavaliers whether they admit to it or not. The fact is that the Celtics now have the Cavs on the ropes and if Cleveland does somehow pull this one out I expect it to be a very tight win. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout wins in Games 3 and 4 of this series and finishing off the Raptors in Game 4 in a rout, the Cavaliers 6 prior home wins had all come by a margin of 6 points or less! In fact they are known this season for just squeaking by in games. That is why the Cavaliers are 23-49 ATS as a favorite this season and 16-33 ATS in home games! Boston is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The last 5 times the Cavs were off of a double digit loss they've actually gone only 3-2 SU. In other words, even bouncing back for a SU win here is not a given and also 2 of those 3 SU wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 7 points off of a double digit loss would have resulted in a 1-4 ATS record for the Cavs since April 1st. I am grabbing the big dog value with the Celtics in this one as finally we see a road team cover in this series! 10* BOSTON |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Tuesday's game saw the total close at 227.5 in a number of shops with some even as high as a 228. Of course after the dismal shooting effort in Game 4, the markets have had to adjust but a double digit adjustment is something not normally seen. In other words, it is not the odds makers doing this as much as it is the markets. The odds makers opened up Tuesday's total at 224 and this Game 5 total at 220. That is a difference of only 4 points. But the markets hammered the over in Game 4 and got crushed and now they're hammering the under in Game 5 and I suspect they will get crushed again. This morning's total (as low as 218.5) is nearly 10 points below where we were before tip-off in Game 4. The value is too much to ignore because you know that two fantastic shooting teams are going to find their rhythm again after each of them was held below 40% from the field in Tuesday's game. This season there were only 3 times that the Warriors were on the road following a game in which they were held below 100 points. The average point total of the next game in those 3 occurrences was 232 points! Also, when on the road this season following a game in which they allowed less than 100 points, Golden State went 8-2 to the over on the season! There has only been 1 under in the Rockets last 6 home games and that was Game 3 of this series which totaled 225 points. In other words, given the low number on tonight's total that also would have resulted in an over. The Rockets are averaging 114.2 points per game in their last 6 home games and the Warriors should match them bucket for bucket as you can tell by the spread on this game being a pick'em. In my opinion the best value (and it is strong value) is the over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-23-18 | Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics didn't just lose Game 3 in Cleveland, they got crushed. Boston followed that up with a better effort in Game 4 but they still were down by double digits nearly the entire game. The points is that the Cavaliers didn't just beat them, they destroyed them. As much as I respect the coaching of Brad Stevens, the head man for Boston can only do so much and the veteran edge the Cavs roster has is paying dividends as this series has gone on. The fact that the Cavaliers didn't just win but won huge in Cleveland means they now have all the momentum plus a ton of confidence as this series goes back to Boston for Game 5. Keep in mind, Boston has gone 9-0 on their home floor in the post-season but this game is priced this way for a reason and it is certainly no mistake. Look for the Cavs to get the upset win Wednesday and take a stranglehold on this series. LeBron James is back in the zone and what people don't realize is their hot shooting has been there since before this series started. It is not as if the Cavs are just getting "lucky" with their shots. They've been on fire dating back to the Raptors series. Yes they had one very poor shooting effort (Game 1 of this series) but in their other 6 games the past 3 weeks they've hit a combined 52.2% from the field. That is NOT one game, that is a combined average for SIX games! That is HOT shooting that Boston only wishes they could achieve. The Celtics have been held under 44.8% in 5 of their last 6 games. Big difference here and the Cavs have the best player on the floor, the momentum, the experience edge, and the confidence factor. The Cavaliers are a long-term 17-6 SU their last 23 games versus the Celtics and that includes 8-4 SU and ATS their last 12 in Boston. Yes, the Celtics took it to them in Game 1 here but the Cavs were up 7 points at the half in Game 2 on this floor. With the way the tide has turned in this series, look for LeBron and Company to again jump on the Celtics early with a big first half in Boston and, this time, they hang on for the win over a dejected Celtics team that is now (though they wouldn't admit it) doubting themselves. 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-22-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 224 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors Andre Iguodala is listed as doubtful for this game. He is a starter and he is important come playoff time because he is a very solid player on the defensive end. That said, this should help lead to a high-scoring match-up in Game 4. You know the Rockets are going to bounce back after scoring just 85 points in Game 3. However, the Warriors offensive production is unlikely to be slowed down on their home floor where they have averaged 121 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 9-2 in Houston's Tuesday games this season and the Rockets are a long-term 5-2 to the over after they were held to 85 points or less in their prior game. Golden State is 22-13 to the over when leading in a playoff series. Also, the Warriors are a long-term 13-4 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Factor all this in with the banged up knee plaguing Iguodala and you have the right "recipe" for an absolute shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Celtics games have now recorded 3 straight unders. The over is 5-1 this season when Boston enters a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. Celtics coach Brad Stevens, one of the best in the business, is making some adjustments here and I expect it to result in a lot more offense. Boston scored just 86 points and got blasted in Game 3 as they lost by a margin of 30 points. The over is 8-3 this season when the Celtics are off of a game they lost by a double digit margin. The over is a long-term 17-11 when the Cavaliers enter a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. The total on this game is currently 206.5 as of early morning on game day. The last 13 times that Cleveland has been off of a win by a double digit margin, their next game has totaled 207 points or more 11 of 13 times! In other words, look for the Cavs offense to stay red hot here (particularly since they are at home but also look for Stevens to make some adjustments to get his teams offensive production right back up where it should be. Keep in mind the Cavaliers had allowed an average of 107 points per game before Saturday's blowout win and, on the season, the Cavs allowed 109 points per game. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - You know the Warriors will be out for blood here after a 22 point loss in Game 2 on Wednesday. However, look for Golden State to respond with offense, not defense. The fact is that the Warriors over should go to 6-3 the last 9 times they've played a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Fresh legs for Golden State coupled with being on their home floor coupled with being off of a blowout loss all equates to a run and gun affair here. You know the Rockets will play with plenty of confidence after knocking off the Warriors by 22 points at home. That is going to lead to a shootout here. Houston has averaged 113 points per game in their last 9 games. The Warriors have averaged 119 points per game in their last 3 home games. Golden State's most recent home game stayed under the total but the Warriors entered that game with a record of 7-1 to the over in their 8 prior home games. The Rockets are 7-3 to the over in their past 10 games. Game 3 went over the total despite the Warriors shooting only 30% from three point land and you know another performance like that is highly unlikely. That said, this one should easily crush the posted O/U Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Tremendous value here as everyone expects the Cavaliers to bounce back since they are at home and they have dug an 0-2 hole in this series. There are many problems with that theory however. First off, this is LeBron James weakest supporting cast in his tenure with the Cavs. Secondly, the Cavaliers best shot for a blowout home win would be to get hot from the outside and start draining shot after shot. The long layoff in this series won't help in that regard. These teams haven't played since Tuesday and Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS with those same parameters this season! The issue for the Cavs is that generally when they are shooting cold (and certainly the Celtics are tough defensively) they stay cold. The Cavaliers this season are an ugly 1-6 ATS when they enter a game having been held under 100 points in each of their 2 prior games. In other words, don't look for the Cavs to start suddenly draining all kinds of shots in this game. In fact, with their loss in Game 2 (scored 94) after scoring just 83 in Game 1, Cleveland is now 4-17 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held under 100 points! Should the Cavs find a way to get a home win and crawl back into this series don't be surprised if it is a non-covering win. Cleveland is only 8-6 SU in their last 14 games and 6 of those 8 wins have come by a margin of 4 points or less! Look for the Cavaliers to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest. 10* BOSTON |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +100 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets Money Line (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Rockets haven't lost back to back games in 4 months! You have to go all the way back to early January to find the last time Houston was defeated in consecutive games. Yes I know this is the Warriors but you can bank on the Rockets making some solid adjustments here. While Golden State is still going to "get theirs" in this one, I certainly don't expect the Warriors to again connect on 62% of their shots inside from the 3-point arc. Look for the Rockets to improve on their perfect mark in this situation - 9-0 SU the L9 times they were off of a loss. That is another reason I am suggesting the money line here as it is offering great line value and you don't necessarily have to lay the 1 or 1.5 points (as of early game day morning). Just grab the money line and look for the Rockets to even up this series at home! Golden State, dating back to early March, is 0-4 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've entered a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - You know that LeBron James and Company are going to respond here but they have had issues on defense all season long and are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to their defensive efficiency rating. With that said, look for this one to surprise many and be a shootout. The Cavaliers are 11-5 to the over in Tuesday games game this season. Cleveland is also 24-14 to the over when playing with revenge. After a loss by a double digit margin, the Cavs are 32-19 to the over. The Celtics are 18-10 to the over this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. That is because it is hard to keep up defensive intensity when a team is off of an easy blowout win. Also, the over is 19-10 Boston's last 29 versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, versus teams that average 106 points or more, the Celtics are on a 24-12 run to the over. Before game 1 stayed under the total, Cleveland was on a 5-1 run to the over their prior 6 games and had been shooting the ball very well. Also, prior to that Game 1 under, the Celtics had gone 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games. After a rare OFF night for the Cavaliers in the offensive end, look for things to return to "normal" Tuesday in Game Two. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-09-18 | 76ers +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - Most all of you have likely heard the expression "let sleeping dogs lie". It is an old saying that essentially means this: avoid interfering in a situation that is currently causing no problems but might do so as a result of such interference. Here is the problem with the Celtics and what they did in Game 4 at Philly. Certainly entering the game the 76ers were dogs and Boston would have been better off not doing anything to provoke them. Instead the game became quite "testy" and at one point Philly native Marcus Morris (Celtics player) flashed a 3-0 signal with his hands to remind the Sixers what the series score was. Needless to say that is like twisting a stick into the belly of a sleeping dog. Philly head coach Brett Brown made a great move by starting TJ McConnell in Game 4 and he had a career game for the 76ers as it paid off huge for Philly. Lets not forget the Celtics are extremely well coached but still would be a much better team if they had Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the floor. The more talented team in this series (with those two guys missing for Boston) is Philadelphia. They are plenty alive and awake now and remember they lost Game 3 in OT and also the Game 2 loss at Boston was a narrow one. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA but the Sixers are well aware that they just need one win here to send this series back to Philly with a chance to tie it up. They are rejuvenated and ironically one of the few times in the NHL in which a team won a series after being down 3-0 was when the Philadelphia (Flyers) rallied against the Boston (Bruins) in 2010. Boston had the home ice edge there just like the Celtics do in this series. This Sixers team is absolutely rejuvenated and revitalized after the Game 4 win and they carry extra motivation after some of what went on in Game 4 on the court. I also like the fact that at one point the line on this game was 76ers -1.5 but the markets are loving the Celtics here and now it is Boston that is much as a -1.5 point favorite as of early game day morning. I love fading line moves like this and look for Boston to drop to 5-8 SU the last 13 times they've been leading in a playoff series as the Sixers improve to 24-11 SU the last 35 times they were off of a win by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 10:35 ET - New Orleans was held to just 92 points Sunday as they endured a horrific shooting performance versus the Warriors. The Pelicans are 12-5 to the over the last 17 times they've been held to 102 points or less. Also, the Game 4 loss was just the 4th time this season that New Orleans has been held to 39.5% or less from the field. The game after each of the first 3 occurrences went over the total all 3 times! Look for the record in this situation to improve to a perfect 4-0 this season. However, the issue for the Pelicans is the fact that they won't be able to stop the Warriors potent attack. Golden State is at home and wants to close this out tonight and avoid a trip back to New Orleans. As a result, look for the Warriors to push the pace here as they attempt to push the Pelicans right out of the post-season! The over is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 home games. Also, after a loss by 10 points or more New Orleans is 12-5 to the over this season plus the over is 27-14 in Pelicans games in which they are playing with revenge. The over is 21-12 when the Warriors are leading in a playoff series and they'll keep their foot on the gas for all 48 minutes of this one at home. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Most will be looking for the Cavaliers, up 3-0 in this series, to close it out on their home floor Monday. However, even if Cleveland does that, it would not be too surprising if the Cavs fall short of the cover. After all, with Game 3's non-covering win, the Cavaliers are now 20-49 ATS as a favorite this season and also 13-33 ATS in home games! The loss for the Raptors marked the first time this season that they've lost 3 straight games. That is certainly noteworthy as Toronto is 5-2 ATS in recent seasons when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS (100% PERFECT) this season when they are an underdog of 4 or more points. As of very early game day morning, Toronto is catching a half-dozen points here and this is offering great value with the hungry underdog. The Raptors, with their cover Saturday, are now 6-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. I expect Toronto to gut out a win and stay alive in this series. However, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 4 points or less. 6 of Cleveland's 7 playoff wins in this post-season have come by 4 points or less. 10* TORONTO |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 209 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz were held to just 92 points on their home floor in the Game 3 loss. Utah is a perfect 6-0 to the over they last 6 times they were off of a game where they scored 96 points or less. The Jazz should respond here and they might even get an extra boost with the return of guard Ricky Rubio. When trailing in a playoff series, Utah has gone 4-2 to the over. Also, the over is a perfect 9-0 in Sunday games for the Jazz this season! Houston is 4-1 to the over in this post-season when they are leading in a playoff series. The Rockets started slow in this post-season but they've now averaged 114.4 points per game their last 5 games. Houston is a 5-point favorite in this match-up. If the game hits right near the line and the Rockets hit their recent scoring average, you're talking about a 114-109 type game. That covers this total by double digits and that is exactly what I am looking for here. Houston likely to shoot even better from three point land as the Rockets rarely have 3 straight sub-par games from beyond the arc. The Jazz fight back hard in hopes of evening this series up. The result is plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - This line doesn't make sense which is precisely why I am backing the dog here. The Cavs just finished up winning both games at Toronto including demolishing the Raptors in convincing fashion in Game 2 and yet now they are at home and opened up as only a 3.5 point favorite. Of course markets jumped all over that and have driven the line all the way up to as high as a 5 as of early game day morning. Going contrarian as per usual I am on the other side of this move. The Cavaliers only turned the ball over a total of 8 times in the first two games. This is ridiculous and will change. The Cavs averaged 14 turnovers per game in their prior 8 games before averaging just 4 turnovers per game their last 2. As for the Raptors they had forced an average of 13 turnovers per game in their 4 games previous to allowing an average of only 4 in the last two games versus the Cavs. Also, Cleveland is not going to shoot 59.5% from the field again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2. It didn't matter what they were throwing up Thursday night it was going in. That is helping to lead to value here for the hungry Raptors. Toronto is 14-4 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite this season and they also are 16-5 SU after allowing 115 points or more. The Cavaliers are just 20-47 ATS as a favorite and only 13-31 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland also is 2-10 ATS in Saturday games this season. More of the same here. 10* TORONTO |
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05-04-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +4.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #516 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - 3-point shooting comes and goes. The Rockets were the hot team in Game 1 and the Jazz were the hot team in Game 2 from beyond the arc. However, lets talk about what is going on inside the arc so far in this series. Houston has made 48 of 108 shots from 2-point land for a 44% shooting percentage while Utah has made a ridiculous 59 of 105 shots from inside the arc for a stellar 56% shooting percentage. You can tell who is getting the higher percentage shots / better looks at the basket so far in this series. Also, the Jazz have a shot 59.6% from the free throw line so far in this series. That is unusual and certainly won't continue based on their full season mark of 77.9% from the charity stripe. The Rockets defense has been subpar and they are 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that when Houston is not playing good defense and games are flying over the total, they generally don't cover spreads either! Also, the Rockets are a long-term 6-11 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series. Utah is 3-1 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series and they'll ride the momentum of the big Game 2 win plus returning to their home floor tonight. Note that the Jazz are 16-6 SU after scoring 115 points or more in a game this season and also 19-5 SU in their last 24 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UTAH |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics won Game 1 and that is perfect for setting up insane value here. Don't be surprised if that is the only game that Boston wins in this series. The scene will shift to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after tonight's game and I just don't see the Celtics winning again here. Did the 76ers perhaps come in overconfident Monday? One thing is for certainly Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown will have his team ready to go here and Boston is NOT going to make 17 of 36 three pointers again! Keep in mind, the Celtics outscored the Sixers by 36 points from three point land! If the teams were just "even" from beyond the arc, Philadelphia wins Game 1 by a 20 point margin! The 76ers dominated the boards in Game 1 and also did a better job of getting to the free throw line as they had very nearly twice as many attempts as Boston. Additionally, from inside the arc, Philly made 30 shots while the Celtics made only 24. There is an old saying about "live by the three die by the three" and the fact is that Boston only won Game 1 because of 3-point shooting and that is certainly not expected to continue here. In their 5 prior games, the Celtics were held to 34.6% or less in all 5 games! Boston is also banged up and the Sixers certainly hold the "health edge" here. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the 76ers went 12-4 ATS this season while the Celtics went 6-8 SU. Look for Boston to drop to 3-7 SU the last 10 times they have held a lead in a playoff series. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - There are some statistical outliers from Game 1 of this series that make this a fantastic spot to grab the big dog. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 1 by only 14 points even though the Rockets hit a ridiculous 17 of 32 from three point land and Utah made only 13 of 22 free throws! Yes, Houston is known for their 3-point shooting but they hit only 36.2% on the season. The Jazz actually hit 36.5% of their threes on the season! As for that unusual free throw shooting, Utah made 77% of their shots from the charity stripe on the season. The point is that, given normal shooting of free throws and three pointers, the JAZZ would have WON Game 1 by 8 points! That's right, Utah would have made 1 more three and 4 more free throws while the Rockets would have made 5 less threes. The result is a 22 point swing from a 14 point win for Houston to a win for Utah by a margin of 8 points. The beauty here is we don't need the Jazz to win, we just need them to cover and, as you can see, Game 1 had some crazy shooting results and yet the Rockets still barely covered! I am all over the value with big dog Utah in Game 2. The Jazz are 18-5 SU their last 23 game against team that average 106 points or more per game and they are also 10-6 SU/ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Rockets are 5-10 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Certainly the extra time off sometimes effects the shooting stroke of Houston's outside shooters. 10* UTAH |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Steph Curry is expected back for tonight's game. Of course this has resulted in a jump in this line. However, will he be 100%? Will he be ready to step right in without disrupting the current flow of the Warriors? The fact is that he has hardly played in the past two months. Will there be an adjustment phase for both Curry and for Golden State in terms of working him back into the mix? I absolutely believe so and there is excellent value with a hungry Pelicans team off of an embarrassing loss in Game 1 and catching huge points in Game 2. Keep in mind Golden State was just "making everything" in the first half of that Game 1 victory and that got New Orleans into a big hole early. That will not be the case tonight and you're going to see the Pelicans playing with plenty of resolve and determination after the embarrassment of Game 1's result. Keep in mind, New Orleans entered this series on a 9-0 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. The Pelicans have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 10 games. New Orleans is 7-4 ATS (and 8-3 SU) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, the Pelicans are 28-16 ATS in road games this season. The Warriors are only 6-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is on an 8-20 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they are over-priced here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 207.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:05 ET - Sixers head coach Brett Brown spent many years on the Spurs coaching staff and learned plenty from San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich. That said, Brown knows exactly what to do in this spot. He has a very talented Philadelphia team that can put up a ton of points in a hurry and they are well-rested with fresh legs here as they have not played since Monday! Brown knows he is catching a weary Celtics team that just finished battling a 7-game series with the Bucks that wrapped up on Saturday. The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days while Boston will be playing their 6th game in 11 days! You can plainly see which team is going to be fresher here and coach Brown is smart enough to have his team "run and gun" here. That could stake Philly to an early lead which helps take the crowd out of it but it also will allow the fresh legs of the 76ers to wear down a Celtics team coming off of that grueling battle with the Bucks. The Boston over is 11-3 their last 14 games. Also, the Celtics are 21-9 to the over their last 30 games when they face a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Look for the Philadelphia over to go to 4-1 this season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz are without point guard Ricky Rubio and the line has really jumped on this game as a result. Utah is approaching being a dog by a dozen points here. Keep in mind, they lost Rubio to a strained hamstring very early in their series clinching win over Oklahoma City Friday. In other words, they played just fine without him. Sure Rubio contributes in a lot of ways but it certainly hadn't been his shooting in the Thunder series. He was in an awful slump and the time out with the hamstring injury may not be such a bad thing for Rubio (to get back on track) or for the Jazz as they'll compensate well for his absence here. Utah has multiple ways to modify their lineup sans Rubio and they'll be just fine here so I am glad to contrarian and grab the extra value here as everyone jumps on the Rockets at home. Houston struggled to find their rhythm on offense for long stretches in their series with the Timberwolves. They did not shoot the ball particularly well until the Game 5 victory. Now the Rockets will have to contend with a much tougher defense than what Minnesota presented. The Jazz use their defense to take down better offensive teams. That is why Utah is on an 18-4 SU run (16-6 ATS) versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Rockets are just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. Also, when Houston enters a game on a totals streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 2-6 ATS this season. Look for the Jazz defense to be the difference maker here. 10* UTAH |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Stephen Curry is likely coming back for the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. That has caused this line to jump up to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that he is unlikely to be 100% right out of the gate and his shooting is also unlikely to be as sharp as usually. Keep in mind, Curry has hardly seen any game action since very early March. Golden State is hosting a red hot Pelicans team that also has added confidence from winning on this very floor in early April. That victory is part of the red hot 9-0 SU/ATS run that the Pelicans are bringing into this game. It is no fluke either as New Orleans is 9-3 SU/ATS their last 12 road games! When a team is that hot and winning like that away from home, they are a force to be reckoned with and I like the added line value here of this one now approaching double digits! The Pelicans are 13-7 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games and that long-term stretch dates all the way back to the All Star break. The Pelicans are shooting 52.8% from the field in their last 7 games. Golden State has been held under 44.7% from the field in 2 straight and 3 of their last 6 games. The Pelicans are geared up for the upset here and if they do fall short I expect the generous points offered here to prove to be more than enough. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - With all the games in this series staying under the closing number, the downward trend on the posted totals in these games has continued. With tonight's game also being a possible elimination game for the Pacers, we are being given additional line value with the low posted total on this one. I expect Indiana to come out with a ton of energy and to also sustain it. The Pacers have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series so clearly the grinder style of games is not suiting them. They need to take advantage of getting quick points in transition and push the tempo a little bit and try to change things up here in Game 6. Indiana has shot better on the road than at home in this series and, of course, that is the inverse of what you would expect. Don't look for that trend to continue here. Look for a shootout tonight with plenty of threes as well as quick points in transition. The Cavaliers wrapped up the regular season with an O/U mark of 6-3 in road games and Game 4 of this series in Indiana did go over the total for all but later bettors (closed at 206). As for the Pacers, they averaged 106.4 points per game at home this season and I have a strong feeling about what is coming tonight in terms of tempo and that should lead to an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - This line was as high as a -5.5 and is now down to a 4.5 (with reduced juice too) as of early game day morning. I like the value we're seeing here with the Bucks on their home floor considering they had 89 shots from the field (compared to just 69 for the Celtics) in the 5-point loss at Boston on Tuesday. Prior to that game Milwaukee was hitting over 52% in this series so the likelihood of a bounce back (particularly since they are back home) is quite high. The Bucks are 33-17 SU as a favorite this season and I like them to cover the small number in the process of another SU win here. At home, Milwaukee will be the better shooting team tonight and the Celtics may struggle a bit as they feel the pressure of trying to close it out and avoid a winner takes all Game 7. Keep in mind there is some history with this as Boston is only 3-5 SU when leading in a playoff series in recent seasons. They've haven't played well in this situation but they truly have been getting a number of fortunate covers. This is why the Celtics have such a strong ATS record and are becoming a public favorite...they've been getting the cash. But tonight the public will be burned on this one because the Bucks roll at home. Remember 87 to 69 field goal attempts in Game 5 on the road at Boston. You know what is coming tonight from the hungry Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-25-18 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 9:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total was a 219. The markets have pounced on it and have pounded it down to as low as a 215.5 as of early game day morning. I'll gladly grab the additional line value here. The Wolves are down 3-1 in this series so they have no option but to pull off a huge upset here if they want to stay alive in this post-season. That said, there is great value with the over here because the Rockets are going to push the pace and look to close out big at home. The first two games in this series were played in Houston and both stayed under the total. However, the Rockets shot uncharacteristically poor from 3-point land in those two games. They've gotten hotter since then as they've shot better from beyond the arc in the last two games, both played in Minnesota. That said, I look for them to be even hotter still in Game 5 as they're back on their home floor and have found their shooting stroke again. The Timberwolves have hit 40% of their threes in this series and I look for this one to turn into a run and gun affair. We're simply getting value here because the first two games in Houston stayed under the total. Given this elimination setting and the Rockets game plan to run the Wolves out of the playoffs by running them right of the arena, this will be a shootout tonight. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 when the Rockets are leading in a playoff series. Minnesota is 9-4 to the over when they are off of a loss by double digits. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 211 | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - The Game 4 win for the Sixers was the 3rd time in 4 games in this series that one of the teams attempted at least 94 shots from the field. However, the game did stay under but the point is that we're getting line value here with this total as a result. The way the pacing has gone in this series 3 of the 4 should have gone over but instead it is a 2-2 split. With Miami having their backs against the wall, down 3-1 in this series, I look for them to be especially aggressive on the offensive end in this one. They know the Sixers are going to "get theirs" in terms of points but the Heat have scored at least 102 in each game in this series and have, in fact, averaged 106.5 points per game. Considering the spread on this game is double digits and yet Miami should end up in the 102 to 107 range in points, this total is definitely a little low as you can see! In terms of technical support, the over is 10-4 in Miami's last 14 road games and 10-5 in 76ers games this season when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. Fresh legs and plenty of run and gun as the Sixers want to end this at home while the Heat will be firing away to try to stay alive and send it back to Miami. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets will be in bounce back mod here after getting destroyed in Game 3. Keep in mind, even though Houston won Game 1 it was far too close of a call and they responded in Game 2 and won by a margin of 20 points. The Rockets are 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS) versus Northwest Division opposition this season. Houston is also 17-6 SU when playing with revenge this season. That said, I also like my chances of a SU win equating to an ATS win as 11 of the Timberwolves last 13 losses have come by 8 or more points. Minnesota is also an ugly 18-34 ATS (including 9-16 ATS this season) when off of a game where they scored 115 or more points. Minnesota is also just 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off of a game where they shot 40% or better from three point land. The Wolves 15 of 27 shooting performance from beyond the arc certainly had a lot to do with their Game 3 win but they are not known as a 3 point shooting team and averaged only 8 per game so far this season. In other words, that 1-7 ATS stat makes perfect sense because Minny usually comes right back down to earth after a rare standout shooting performance like that. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - With a drop down to a 203.5 this morning, this total is now down double digits from where it was earlier in this series. This is a classic case of the books having to over-react due to market perception forcing an over-correction. Yes all 3 games of this series have stayed under the total but let us not get carried away here! The Celtics scored 57 in the first half of Friday's game. The Pacers scored 52 points in the 2nd half of that Game 3 match-up. The Cavs also scored 58 in the first half of Game 2 while the Pacers scored 51 points in the 2nd half of that match-up. The key here is Cleveland is now desperate for a win as they are on the road and down 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers best success in this series has come when they're pushing the pace. The Cavs have led by double digits at halftime in each of the past two games. Today I look for Cleveland to push hard for a full 48 minutes. While I do respect the Pacers defense this is still an Indiana team that allowed 104 points per game this season. Of course the Cavaliers struggles defensively were well-documented this season and they've allowed nearly 110 points per game on the season. There is simply exceptional value with the drop in this total because you know with the importance of this game, big difference between a 3-1 series and a 2-2, neither team is going to lie down late no matter the score. So a good tempo here with late fouling and big threes also a distinct possibility to add points. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves OVER 214 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #721 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets @ 7:35 ET - Ladies and gentlemen, this total opened up at a 213 and is now as high as a 214.5 despite the fact that both games in this series have easily stayed under the total AND the Rockets are on an 11-2 run to the under. So what does that tell you? Some sharp money is on the over here folks. This is a contrarian play. Most will be enticed to the under but the over is the way to go. Yes, the Timberwolves are on a 5-1 run to the under also but, after struggling with their shot at Houston, look for them to shoot much better at home in Minnesota. Also, the Rockets are making just 29% of their three pointers so far in this series but that is not going to continue. Houston is too strong of a shooting team and they will hit their stride again. The Rockets actually hit 38 of 82 (46.3%) of their three pointers in their two games at Minnesota in the regular season and they'll get it rolling again tonight. The Wolves have averaged 114 points per game in their last 4 home games versus the Rockets and the over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings there. The Timberwolves are 8-4 to the over this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards OVER 218 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 102 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - There really is no reason to expect the high-scoring ways of this series to come to a stop just yet. The Wizards average nearly 4 points more at home compared to on the road while the Raptors average under 2 points less on the road compared to at home. Also, the Toronto defense does allow about 4 points more when on the road this season while the Washington defense shows an average only about 2 points better when at home compared to on the road. The Wizards simply are not known as a team that wins with defense. In fact, in their last 15 home wins they've allowed an average of 105.4 points per game. Again, they win with offense and this is a desperate Washington team in search of a win to get back into this series but they simply can not stop the Raptors. Toronto has scored an average of 116.3 points per game in their last 4 games versus the Wizards. The Raptors have shot the ball very well overall in their last 5 games and have averaged 114.6 points per game during this stretch. The Wizards are 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games. Toronto is a long-term 23-16 when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Raptors also are 9-5 to the over this season when they are an underdog. Washington is 27-16 to the over when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, only 4 of 12 games have stayed under when the Wizards are off of a loss by a double digit margin. In other words, the Wizards respond to ugly defeats with offense not defense and that is what I expect to see again on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-19-18 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 216 | Top | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:05 ET - During the regular season an average game for the Blazers or the Pelicans sees about 42 free throw attempts. However, in the last 3 meetings between these teams, including the first two of this post-season, the teams have averaged a total of only 25 free throw attempts. This certainly has had an impact on each of those 3 meetings staying under the total and I look for it to change tonight. Down 0-2 in the series and having lost both games on their home floor, Portland needs to come out very aggressive and attack the basket. This leads to more trips to the free throw line. The fact is that the Blazers have averaged 98 field goal attempts in their last 3 games against the Pelicans so the pacing has certainly been there for an over. Tonight we'll finally see the pace correlate properly to a higher scoring game. New Orleans has shot the ball very well their last 7 games and that is why they've scored 111 points or more in 6 of those 7 games. Look for the Pelicans to stay hot here but the desperate Blazers will answer them bucket for bucket as this game goes on. The over is a long-term 81-42 in Pelicans home games and that includes 28-13 this season! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - Paul George hit 8 of 11 three pointers in Game 1 for the Thunder. Many of those were contested. Sometimes guys go off in a game and that is what happened Sunday. Even with that ridiculous shooting performance by George in Game 1, Oklahoma City still only won the game by single digits. Look for this one to be either a Jazz upset or a loss by a single possession because Utah is going to shoot better than they did from three point land in Game 1. Odds favor that as well as the fact that George is certainly unlikely to again hit 73% of his threes. Coming into this series I felt the Jazz offer great value and I still feel that way despite the ATS loss in Game 1. Utah has allowed 99 points or less in 16 of their last 21 games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 109 points per game in their last 9 games. Despite the Sunday result, the Jazz are still 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Oklahoma City is still just 6-11 SU (and 3-14 ATS!) in games against divisional opponents this season. 10* UTAH |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - Certainly I won't hesitate to come right back with the Bucks for Game 2 of this series after a true brutally bad beat on Milwaukee in Game 1. Undoubtedly the Bucks were the right side in Game 1 as we all saw. The game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-pointer for the Bucks with a tenth of a second left on the clock. Of course everyone with a Bucks ticket had at least 3.5, many had 4, and some even had 4.5 to the plus side with Milwaukee. The fact that the Bucks outscored the Celtics by a dozen points in the final 3 quarters of that game says a lot about the adjustments there were able to make. I also like the fact that they barely lost Game 1 despite 10 more fouls than Boston and despite the fact that the Celtics shot above their season averages from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Boston also had the added benefit of nobody totaling more than 4 fouls. The Bucks had two starters foul out and another starter ended up with 5 fouls. Those things effect players mentally. Look for staying out of foul trouble in Game 2 to result in an even better effort from the Bucks and, keep in mind, they pushed the Celtics to the brink in Game 1. If Boston had Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving on the floor this would be a different story but, without Irving particularly (I know Hayward was lost immediately this season), the fact is that the Celtics were very fortunate to win Game 1. They won't be so fortunate tonight against the hungry and determined Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - While both teams shot exceptionally well from 3-point land in Game 1, that certainly is unlikely to continue in Game 2. So lets take a closer look at the stats that do matter. The Sixers had 17 more field goal attempts in the game. Why? Because they won the rebounding battle by 10 caroms, had 5 more steals which helped lead to a turnover edge of 7, and had 10 more points in the paint. The point is that Philadelphia did the things that win playoff basketball games and I don't see any reason for that not to continue in Game 2. The 76ers had 5 guys score at least 17 points, the Heat only had one big scorer as Olynyk had 26 points. Keep in mind, it also certainly doesn't hurt that Philly has won 17 straight games. Their confidence is sky high and this is huge for a young team. Also, about that "young" team, 4 of the Sixers 7 players who logged the most minutes in Game 1 are 30 or older. That's right, the majority of the core playing rotation in that first game was comprised of guys who are at least 30 and the 76ers top two scorers in the game, Belinelli and Redick are 32 and 33, respectively. This team is a little more balanced with veteran leadership than what casual followers realize. That said, I'll gladly take the Sixers again at home in Game 2 as they are laying a small number despite the fact they are on their own court and going for 18 wins in a row. I'll take it! Lay the points with the red hot Sixers! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-15-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:35 ET - A line that had been as low as a -3 on the Thunder is now all the way up to as high as a 4.5 in some spots as of Sunday morning. I like the value with the underdog Jazz. Oklahoma City was only 16-26 ATS in the regular season in games against teams with a winning record. Utah finished up the regular season on a 13-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder also were a horrific 2-14 ATS in games against divisional opponents this season. While Oklahoma City has the more prolific offensive production, I love defensive-minded dogs and certainly the Jazz are the better team on that end of the floor. Oftentimes good defense trumps offensive powerhouses and, that is especially true in crunch time like the playoffs or latter stages of the regular season. Sure enough, Utah is 14-2 SU (and 13-3 ATS) in their last 16 games against teams that average 106 or more points per game. The Jazz are 18-7 ATS in Sunday games including 6-1 ATS this season. Before a loss in their regular season finale, the Jazz were on a 17-3 SU run and the 3 losses were by 3, 4, and 5 points. Hence the value with the points in a game today where the road dog certainly has a great shot at the outright upset. The Thunder have covered just ONCE in their last SEVEN home games! 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:35 ET - The Pelicans are rolling into the post-season with 5 straight wins both SU and ATS. New Orleans has averaged 121.2 points per game during this 5-game winning streak. The Pelicans also have been dialing up some defense as they've allowed 103 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Trail Blazers have been at the other end of the spectrum with a 1-4 SU run their last 5 games. Portland is only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games versus the Pelicans and one of those 2 wins came by just 4 points. The Blazers also are just 5-10 SU in their last 15 playoff games. New Orleans is simply "feeling it" right now and playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the ball very well. There are only 4 teams in the NBA that had more road wins than the Pelicans (24) this season. Those are the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, and Raptors. Needless to say that is pretty elite company and the point is that this team can travel and win and I like getting the points here in Game 1 as they ride their momentum right into this post-season match-up. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 213 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:05 ET - The winner of this game goes to the post-season. The loser is out. As a result of those high stakes as well as Denver's ultra low scoring win over Portland Monday, there has been a dramatic over-reaction with this total. The very first O/U that popped up on this one was a 220. Now, as of Tuesday evening, the total is all the way down to a 213. This is offering incredible line value for the over. Keep in mind, the loser is out. There is no tomorrow for this season. That said, I look at this game from a different viewpoint. Late game big scoring pushes are going to be huge. There will be fouling for the team that is trailing. They will be jacking up threes. Even if still down 10 with a minute to go there is likely to still be fouling (hence free throws) and then corresponding quick threes jacked up. Again, because there is no tomorrow. With all that said, I like the fact that both of these teams are plenty capable of going on quick scoring runs and I expect this game to have plenty of dramatics throughout. The Nuggets are averaging 110 points per game this season and the Timberwolves are averaging 111.4 points per game at home this season. Both teams allow at least 107.3 points per game as their season average. The Nuggets have hit 37% of their threes this season. Minnesota hit 36% of their threes at home this season but also allowed 36.6% three-pointers! You can see why there are likely to be some big shots and big scoring runs in this one. The over is 26-14 this season in Denver's games versus teams with a winning record. The over is 16-7 in the Timberwolves last 23 games versus teams with a winning record. Sure there will be intensity in this game but guys will be knocking down threes too and also looking to get quick points in transition rather than let their opponent get set on defense first. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-10-18 | 76ers -9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are wrapping up their season here and would love to finish up with a home win. However, Atlanta has the worst record in the Eastern Conference. Yes they are off of back to back wins but they are 0-3 ATS this season when off of back to back wins. Also, they now face a very "interested" opponent compared to the last two they faced. The Sixers would like to get the 3 seed in the East and they are in the drivers seat for that but they must keep winning. They need a win at Atlanta tonight and then home against the Bucks tomorrow night. In other words, they are very focused and on a mission and they also are encouraged by the fact that Joel Embiid very well could be back in time for the post-season. More good news for an already thriving franchise. Another key variable to this game, because depth is also important in late season games, is that the Sixers have two players in their rotation now that were dumped by the Hawks during this season. Don't be surprised if they come up with some big plays in this game tonight. The 76ers have won 14 straight and they've covered 10 of their last 12. The Sixers are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games versus opponents that averaged 106 or more points per game. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and their hot shooting the last two games is an aberration that won't continue and has provided some extra value here. Sixers in a road rout! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +4 | Top | 115-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Monday 10* NBA Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET - The Thunder still need to win to clinch a spot in the post-season. The Heat are already in. However, Miami doesn't want to go into the post-season playing bad basketball and they enter this game off of a 24 point loss at New York as a sizable road favorite! Note that Miami is 27-12 ATS (including 8-3 ATS this season) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Their SU record in those 11 games this season is 10-1. As for the Thunder, they enter this game off of an upset win at Houston. Prior to upsetting the Rockets, Oklahoma City had lost 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-6 SU (and 1-7 ATS) this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. With this line climbing all the way to a -4 on the Thunder (after opening up at a pick'em) I love the value here with the home dog. The Heat are not going to lay down at home in this one. They don't want to be playing poorly heading into the playoffs and they will respond after the abysmal performance at New York. 10* MIAMI HEAT |
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04-08-18 | Pistons -5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-130 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 3:35 ET - The Pistons can still finish with a .500 mark this season if they win out and they're really not showing any signs of quitting on the season even though they've been eliminated from post-season contention. As for Grizzlies, the story is much different. Memphis has won only 3 games since late January! With that said, the odds of a Detroit win here are pretty high! As for the cover, note that only 5 of the Grizzlies last 25 losses have come by less than 6 points! The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and are a much healthier team than the Grizzlies whom are missing a number of players and now just trying to wrap up on a disastrous season and look forward to next season. Look for Pistons to improve to 20-10 their last 30 non-conference games while Memphis drops to 3-27 SU (and 9-21 ATS) their last 30 games against Eastern Conference foes. 10* DETROIT |
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04-07-18 | Nuggets -123 v. Clippers | Top | 134-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:35 ET - Mathematically the Clippers are still alive in the playoff race but a loss today finishes them off. The fact is that their most recent win versus the Spurs saw them play very poor early and they were lucky to eventually pull that one out. They then win and got demolished at Utah (and were never in it) in a must-win game versus the Jazz. Also, prior to the win versus San Antonio, the Clippers had lost 2 straight. They're just not playing very good basketball right now. As for the Nuggets, they are red hot and have won 4 straight games. Also, they're right in the thick of the race for a final playoff spot and there is a much different attitude among the Nuggets right now compared to the Clippers. Denver also is playing this game with double revenge as they've lost both games with the Clippers this season. Payback time here. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 8-4 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Clippers drop to 8-16 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 10* DENVER |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have won 12 games in a row. They also have covered 10 in a row. The Cavaliers are in a back to back situation and had to use a lot of energy to come up with the late win versus the Wizards last night. This game has become even more important because of the battle for the #3 seed. If the Sixers win out (3 more games after this) they get the #3 seed. The key with the #3 seed is that the 2nd round match-up (should that team advance) would face the winner of the #2/#7 series rather than a #4 seed facing the winner of the #1/#8 series. Why is that so important? Because the #1 seed is Toronto (whom everyone wants to avoid) while the #2 seed, Boston, is further weakened by the loss of Kyrie Irving for the season. Philadelphia has proven extremely tough to beat at home as they've won 20 of 21 games played on their home floor since the calendar turned to 2018. The big difference between these teams is the 76ers play much better defense than the Cavaliers. With Cleveland also having tired legs in the 2nd game of a back to back, look for Philly to prevail here. The Cavs are 8-14 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 or more this season and also a long-term 11-18 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Keep in mind, not only did the Sixers win on the Cavs floor recently, Philly was blasted by 22 at home by LeBron and Company much earlier this season. Time for payback here. The 76'ers are 25-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Look for the Sixers overall 10-0 ATS streak to make it 11 in a row with another win and cover here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers OVER 210.5 | Top | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 213.5 and is now down to a 210.5 as of early gameday morning. Of course everyone is looking at the match-up last week between these two teams in Golden State and the fact that it totaled only 173 points. Folks, it is never that easy. The fact is that the result from last week is merely serving to give us exceptional line value here and I won't hesitate to step in. The Pacers were on a 3-1 run to the over before their game at Denver stayed just under the total Tuesday. Also, Indiana has shot at least 48.1% in each of their last 5 games and that includes the loss to the Nuggets. As for the Warriors, they are starting to heat up again and have averaged 111.8 points per game their last four games. They have shot at least 49.4% from the field in all 4 of those games. Golden State is off of an upset win at Oklahoma City and the Warriors are 5-2 to the over the last 7 times they were off of an outright win as an underdog. The fact that both of these teams have been trending under of late has greatly impacted market perception right now. The fact is they both come into this game shooting the ball very well and this is a late season non-conference match-up that should see plenty of offensive fireworks. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-04-18 | Heat -8 v. Hawks | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks gave a valiant effort last night at Miami and very nearly got the upset win that would have prevented their division rivals from clinching a playoff spot. That said, it may seem like after losing by just a single possession on the road last night that Atlanta would definitely be the play now as a sizable dog at home. However, the Hawks not only gave a huge effort last night, they did it short-handed. Atlanta is not going to have much left in the tank tonight after, for the most part, playing a 6-man rotation yesterday. The Hawks had 6 guys who each played at least 33 minutes. Miami made full utilization of 9 guys last night as all 9 who played logged at least 20 minutes. Atlanta is simply a wounded team right now and the Heat will take advantage tonight. Miami still is seeking to improve their playoff seeding as right now they could finish as high as 6th or as low as 8th so they certainly won't lay down tonight. Look for the Heat to take advantage of tired Hawks as Atlanta plays their 3rd game in 4 nights while Miami had two days off before yesterday's win. The Heat non-covering win last night was just their 5th ATS loss in 15 divisional games this season! The Hawks are 1-12 SU (and 2-11 ATS) when they enter a game on a steak of 3 or more consecutive unders. 10* MIAMI |
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04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers and Pistons are two of the hottest teams in the league. However, both teams are also without key big men in the paint. This is going to allow both teams to attack the basket and, with the confidence of long winning streaks in tow, each team comes into this game with plenty of confidence on the offensive end. The 76ers have won 11 straight games and have averaged 116.8 points per game during this streak. The Pistons have won 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 and they've averaged 109 points per game during this strong 8-game stretch. The point is that we could easily see this game reach the 226 range if these teams just play like the have been. With some missing pieces in the paint, I definitely expect this one to get into that range as the interior defense for each team has been weakened. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-03-18 | Pacers v. Nuggets OVER 214 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #719 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers @ 9:05 ET - The over is 22-6 in the Nuggets last 28 games yet this total drifted down some this morning. Of course that is because the Pacers have a much different reputation than that of the Nuggets. However, with Denver being at home I do expect they will control the tempo and they'll force the Pacers to keep pace! Additionally, Indiana has shot at least 48% from the field in 4 straight games but has struggled at times on the defensive end. The Pacers have allowed 47.7% or more from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 3-1 in Indiana's last 4 games. Also, the last 7 times that the Pacers have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games, they over has gone 5-2. Look for more of the same here as Denver is 7-2 to the over this season against Central Division opponents. Also, the Nuggets are 25-11 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season! 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Monday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9:20 ET - After both favorites covered in the Final Four, don't be surprised if there is a lot of support for the underdog in this one. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the favorite here. Lets not forget Michigan's path to get here. They beat low seeded teams (Montana and Loyola), only beat Houston because the Cougars couldn't make free throws late, did blowout Texas A & M but barely got by a Florida State team that (for this season at least) has a photo of its likeness next to the word inconsistent in the dictionary. In all seriousness though, the Wolverines have not been nearly as impressive as the Wildcats have. I have said it before and I'll say it again, Villanova is a team on a mission ever since, after winning it all in 2016, they were bounced early from the tourney by Wisconsin last year. The Wildcats haven't been just beating teams, they've been dominating them. How many people felt good about Michigan winning the game yesterday (against an 11 seed!) when they were down 7 at the half? Or still down 5 past the midway point of the 2nd half? Give the Wolverines credit for the comeback win (and a cover that did burn me as I had the Ramblers) but Villanova is not Loyola and this one will likely be close for awhile (Michigan is strong defensively) but the Wildcats will ultimately pull away in convincing fashion. Villanova has not only won 10 straight games, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. Also, the Wildcats last 9 wins have all come by double digit margins. Look for this to be another one. 10* VILLANOVA |
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04-01-18 | Pacers v. Clippers OVER 215.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - When these teams met in Indiana a week ago, the Clippers shot 55% and yet they lost and the game stayed under the total. This is helping to give us solid line value with this total because the Pacers are off of another unique result too. Indiana is off of a win at Sacramento Thursday despite allowing 53.8% from the field. As you can see, the Pacers defense hasn't exactly been on point of late! The Clippers are on an under streak but there is a reason this total is as high as it is. It is more than just some "strange results" recently, it is also that the Clips are now back home where the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games as hosts. LA is still alive in the playoff race and the Pacers are still chasing the Cavaliers for the top spot in the Central Division. With that said there will be no let up from either team and a tight game late could also lead to some free throws and "scramble points" helping our cause. The Clippers have averaged 115.7 points per game in their last 7 home games. The Pacers have scored 106 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games and the Clippers are going to push the pace in this one as they seek revenge for last week's loss. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
THE College Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #814 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Kansas just beat Duke in overtime. That was a huge win and it took OT to get it. Now, of course, the Jayhawks have had ample time to hit reset and get ready for Villanova but the Wildcats have been the much more impressive team. Keep in mind Kansas has allowed about 44% from the field in their last 3 games. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have allowed 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and Villanova has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 37% from the field. The Wildcats defense is simply fantastic and, on offense they have 6 key cogs in the rotation that all handle the ball very well and can score well which creates a match-up nightmare for the opposition. Having already faced the two toughest defenses (including uniqueness of Mountaineers) of the Big 12 (Texas Tech and West Virginia), Villanova is more than ready to take on the Jayhawks. Jay Wright is a helluva strong coach and this team has been on a mission ever since winning it all in 2016 but then getting bounced early by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. Villanova will not be denied and we're getting great line value here with the low number on this one. The Wildcats are a long-term 39-2 SU when they enter off of a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. They are locked in on D right now and most all of their wins have come by at least a half dozen points this season. In other words, you can be very comfortable laying this! All 7 of the Jayhawks losses this season came by at least 5 points. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Saturday 10* Top Play Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:05 ET - The other match-up in the Final Four has a #1 seed matched up with another #1 seed and the line is the same as this line. Do you see my point? Here we have a #3 seed Michigan facing a #11 seed Loyola and we have the exact same line. So this is basically an invitation from the betting markets to take the much higher seed and lay a very small line. I am not buying it! The fact is that the odds makers (always very sharp and on top of their game) realize that this Loyola team is damn good and playing their best, most cohesive basketball of the season right now. The fact is that the odds makers had to put the line like this because they know they're going to have to keep the Michigan line low to balance the sharp money that will come in on the Ramblers. They fact is that Loyola has proven they can play with some top quality teams and if Michigan does defeat them I expect it to be by a single possession. Loyala has simply gone toe to toe with everyone they've faced. Michigan's record looks great but they haven't shot well in 2 of their last 3 games and also haven't shot well from beyond the arc in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tourney games. The Ramblers make a high percentage because they take quality shots and create good looks and high percentage chances. Loyola faced a tougher road to get this point and they've truly proven themselves. Michigan beat Houston by a single point and only because the Cougars didn't make free throws. The Wolverines beat the Aggies because of torrid hot shooting. But in their other game they faced Montana (much lower competition) and Florida State (a fragile, inconsistent team all season). This Ramblers team is anything but fragile or inconsistent! I'll gladly take the points and an outright upset will not surprise me in the least. 10* LOYOLA-CHICAGO |
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03-31-18 | Pistons v. Knicks OVER 211 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #803 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons @ 5:05 ET - The last time the Knicks were in action they combined with the Sixers to give me one of the worst "Bad Beats" I'll likely have this entire calendar year in any sport. The teams combined for 130 points at halftime and yet the game (a big play for me) did not go over the total. It was a horrific beat and, suffice to say, I had my eyes out for when I could get some payback involving New York. Now the Knicks host a Pistons team that, though not officially eliminated, knows that the odds of a playoff berth are basically somewhere between minuscule and nothing. In other words, this is a late season match-up of two non-playoff teams and that means defense goes out the window. Look for for a free-flowing offensive showcase. The Knicks are 7-3 to the over this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Also, New York is 6-2 to the over in Saturday games. The Pistons are 7-2 to the over this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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03-30-18 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 126-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Nuggets still fighting hard for a playoff spot. I know Denver enters off of back to back losses but they faced two of the hottest teams in the East - Philly and Toronto. Prior to those defeats the Nuggets had won back to back games and they enter this one on a 3-1 ATS run. Denver also has a rest edge here as they've been off since Tuesday while the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back to back as they will be coming into this one off of a game at San Antonio Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing this game with revenge but they are 9-22 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-13 ATS in divisional games this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 in divisional games this season. Combined edges of 43-15 (74%) favoring the road dog in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago +9 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Northern Colorado Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears are at home for this one but they are still over-priced in my opinion. Many will look at Illinois-Chicago's travel situation and Northern Colorado's hot ATS streak and they'll be all over the Bears here. I am going contrarian and grabbing the points with the hungry road dog in this Championship Game. The Flames have played a tougher schedule on the season and Illinois-Chicago has defended very well this season. UIC also have shut down the 3-ball very well in their last two games and this is what Northern Colorado has been relying on to achieve their blowout wins. The Bears aren't going to hit 17 of 30 threes in this one like they did against Sam Houston State Wednesday. Also, Northern Colorado has allowed 79.5 points per game their last 4 games. Teams can get spoiled when winning with offense. Subconsciously there is a tendency to let up on defense when things are going so well on the offensive end. This will prove to be the undoing of the Bears because they now face a Flames team that has allowed 61 points or less (and 33.3% or less from the field) in 2 of their last 3 games. From a technical aspect, I like the fact that UIC is 20-8 ATS in recent seasons (including 7-2 ATS and SU) this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for the Flames defense to be the difference here. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, Northern Colorado is on an 11-16 ATS run including 2-4 ATS in recent seasons. The Bears are over-priced here. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-29-18 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 210 | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - With the Bulls having shot so poorly in many recent games I know I am going against the grain here. However, that is all part of being a contrarian and this is an excellent situation. The Heat are off of a huge win versus Cleveland where they held the Cavs to just 79 points. That is certainly noteworthy as Miami is 12-5 to the over (including 4-1 this season) when off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Also, as the Heat have been pushing hard to secure a playoff spot, they have been trending over. Prior to the low-scoring match-up with the Cavaliers, the over was 16-6 in Miami's 22 previous games. As for the Bulls, they were 5-1 to the over in their 6 games prior to getting obliterated by Houston and scoring only 86 points. As you would expect, Chicago struggles to stop quality teams and that has played a key role in the over going 25-13 in Bulls games versus teams with a winning record this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah OVER 134 | Top | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #711 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - 3 of the Nittany Lions 4 NIT games have gone under the total. However, a big win at Marquette thanks to hot shooting followed up by continued hot shooting here at MSG on Tuesday is what has Penn State in the NIT Championship. As a result, I feel we're getting great line value here because the results are similar for Utah. The Utes have stayed under the total in 3 of their 4 NIT games but they have shot the ball very well in their last 5 games. I just don't see Penn State as wanting this game to slow down too much. Couple that with Utah having shot 50% from the field in their last 5 games and you have the makings of an easy over here. The Utes, though they shot well overall, did not shoot the 3-ball well Tuesday versus Western Kentucky and that has led to value here. Utah is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a game where they were held under 32.2% from 3 point land. The over is 13-7 in Penn State's last 20 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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03-28-18 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Look for this to be a very entertaining game with a ton of points scored. The Knicks Trey Burke looks like and, at least for the last 4 games, plays like his idol Allen Iverson. That said, off of a 42 point performance (with 12 assists) at Charlotte Monday, look for another huge game from Burke here as he's certainly excited about playing in Philly. This is his first visit to the City of Brotherly Love since he took on an increased role with the Knicks after the All Star break. The Sixers are red hot again and have won 7 straight games. They certainly are excited about Markelle Fultz being back on the floor finally and he had 10 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds in just 14 minutes in the 76ers big win over Denver Monday. Philadelphia is averaging 118 points per game during their current 7-game winning streak and the way the Knicks have been scoring since the All-Star break (and coinciding with Burke's increased role) sets the stage for an easy over here. The Knicks have scored at least 104 in 11 of their last 16 games while the Sixers have allowed 105.4 in their last 5 home games. This one should get well into the 220s based on that as Philly opened up as a 14 point favorite and both of these teams are really feeling it right now in terms of execution on offense! The over is 3-0 this season in Knicks road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The over is 13-6 when the 76ers enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Liberty Flames @ 7 ET - Even though UIC is without leading scorer Dikembe Dixson, they've been without him for both games of this tournament already and are adjusting just fine by going guard-heavier with their lineup. The fact is that Dixson wasn't a high percentage shooter and Illinois-Chicago has clearly picked up the slack. Yes, Liberty is home for this game but I feel they are getting far too much respect here. The line has gone from Liberty -5 to as high as a -6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that UIC played a tougher schedule than Liberty and Illinois-Chicago is also a solid team defensively just like Liberty is. In fact, UIC is allowing only 32.8% from three point land while Liberty has allowed 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. With that said, I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the big points. UIC is a long-term 46-26 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games and that includes 5-1 ATS (and SU) this season. Liberty is a long-term 3-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They're now going from facing a Central Michigan defense that played very little defense to facing a UIC team that is absolutely going to challenge their shots here. That said, Liberty is facing a much tougher test here and is over-priced. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-27-18 | Spurs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #762 Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of 3 straight losses and that is certainly worthy of note here as Washington has not lost 4 straight games this entire season! The Wizards are a long-term 9-3 SU (and 10-2 ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Washington also is playing this game with quadruple revenge as they've lost 4 straight versus the Spurs. This includes a loss last week at San Antonio where the Wizards gave up a big 3rd quarter run. Washington is 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and I expect them to get revenge here. The Spurs are 14-23 SU on the road this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 away from San Antonio. 10* WASHINGTON |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #777 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Utah Utes @ 7 ET - This line, as of early gameday morning, has the Hilltoppers as a very small favorite. As a result, you can play the money line in the -120 range on this one and that is what I am recommending here. The Utes are the bigger name school and will attract some attention here as a small dog as a result. However, this Hilltoppers team is extremely talented and playing extremely well. As a result, we're getting fantastic line value in this one with the ability to just take Western Kentucky to win. The Hilltoppers have been ultra impressive on both ends of the floor. They are off of a 92-84 win at Oklahoma State and are 12-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They've shot the ball very well in the NIT and have averaged 83.3 points on 54% shooting from the field. Also, Western Kentucky has allowed 38.9% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah is on a long-term 4-8 ATS run in tournament semi-final games and, in recent seasons the Utes have compiled a 6-10 ATS run in games played on a neutral court. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #742 Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 10 ET - Both teams faced a relatively easy path to reach this Championship Series of the CBI. However, don't be fooled by all the big points that North Texas has been putting up. They're facing a much tougher defensive test here. San Francisco played the tougher strength of schedule as their conference includes quality teams like San Diego and BYU and very strong teams like St Mary's and Gonzaga. I feel these tests during the season will help the Dons in terms of being ready to take down the Mean Green here. At home, San Francisco went 15-6 SU this season and that makes me very comfortable laying the short number here with the Dons. The Mean Green went just 6-11 SU in games away from home this season. 11 of their 17 losses this season came by 5 points or more. Also, long-term North Texas is 8-33 SU in road games and an incredibly poor 9-40 SU versus teams with a winning record. Look for the Dons to defend home court in Game 1 of this best of 3 series. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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03-26-18 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 222 | Top | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #733 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Though it is not official yet, even though the Hornets have won 3 straight games, Charlotte is effectively eliminated from the post-season race and they know it. That said, I like to look at the over in late-season match-ups like this that are between two teams that are not going to the post-season. These types of late season ho-hum games tend to lead to plenty of offense and very little defense as there is certainly not a lot of incentive to get stops on the defensive end. That said, I like the fact that this total already has dropped from it's earliest number of 224 down to a 222 and I would not be surprised if it drops even further. With their upset win at Washington yesterday, New York has scored more than 100 in 7 of their last 9 games. The rarity about yesterday's win was that the Knicks didn't allow triple digits. In fact, NY entered that game having allowed 108 points or more in 15 of their last 18 games. Not much defense in those numbers! The over is 8-4 this season when New York is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, when off of an outright upset win as an underdog, the Knicks are 10-5 to the over this season! The over is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 home games and they've averaged scoring 118.7 points per game their last 10 at home! 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-25-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - Portland is off of rare back to back losses at home. The Trail Blazers had been one of the hottest teams in the league and I look for them to bounce right back here. Portland is a PERFECT 5-0 SU their L5 games away from home. Overall, in their last 18 games, the Trail Blazers have lost ATS only 3 times! In their match-ups with the Thunder this season they are a PERFECT 3-0 SU and ATS. Oklahoma City enters this game quite hot also but if you look closely at what they've done, the Thunder just don't win against playoff level teams very often at all. A big part of the reason they've been on a hot streak is because of facing a weak schedule. Most all of their wins have come against teams that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today. In fact, the Thunder are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff position or just one game out (Denver). The point is that Oklahoma City has struggled when facing better teams and they're certainly facing one of those today. It is also noteworthy that the Thunder are just 9-21 ATS when playing with revenge this season and also an ugly 2-12 ATS in divisional games. Look for the Blazers to win outright for the 6th time in their last 6 road games and for the 4th time in their last 4 meetings with OKC. Grab the points but you shouldn't need them. 10* PORTLAND |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas OVER 155 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This total may seem to be on the high side but, keep in mind, these are two of the most potent offenses in college basketball today. The fact that Duke is off of a game where they scored only 69 points and didn't shoot well simply helps to add even more value here. The Blue Devils faced the tough frustrating defense of Syracuse but, in their prior games Duke had scored 87 points or more in 3 of 4 games and they shot extremely well from the field overall and from 3-point land in all 3 of those game! The Jayhawks have averaged 81 points per game in their last 6 games and they have consistently shot the ball very well over their last 10 games. It is no wonder why the over has gone 7-3 in those 10 games as Kansas is playing their best basketball of the season on the offensive end and playing with a ton of confidence. The Jayhawks are averaging 81.4 points per game and the Blue Devils 84.4 points per game on the season. Ton of offense expected here as both teams believe they can outdo each other on the offensive end and you may be surprised to see a very fast pace to this game but that is what I am expecting based on the game management expected from these coaches for this match-up. This is going to be a back and forth shootout. The over is 10-2 this season in Blue Devils games versus non-ACC foes. The over is 6-2 this season when the Jayhawks are playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas |
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03-24-18 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 210.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons, though of course they wouldn't admit it, are coming to terms with the fact that they're not going to make the post-season. They're just too far back now. After a loss to the Rockets, Detroit has lost 11 of its last 15 games. I know the Pistons have some good recent stats on defense but I look for this to be a run and gun shootout on Saturday evening in Detroit. This is a match-up of two teams not going to the post-season and the Bulls quit playing defense a long time ago. Chicago has allowed 117.3 points per game their last 7 games. Detroit needs a breakout game on offense after a frustrating game at Houston. Of course facing the weak Bulls is going to allow the Pistons to enjoy a huge electric game on the offensive end. Chicago is off of a home loss to Milwaukee that went over the total and the over is 9-4 this season when the Bulls are off of a divisional game. The Bulls have averaged 107.7 points per game on offense their last 7 games and you can see why I am looking for a 120 to 108 type game here which, of course, equates to an early over. This will appear to be a bit of a contrarian play given the Pistons recent numbers on defense but you can see, per the above, why I am expecting an entirely different mindset for this one. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State -113 | Top | 78-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #514 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (-) vs Loyola (IL) Ramblers @ 6:05 ET - The Ramblers continue to be the story of the tournament but I just don't see that continuing here. Kansas State has allowed just 53.3 ppg in the tourney and their defense has limited the opposition to less than 34% from the field. Loyola is still alive in the tourney thanks to both strong shooting and clutch shooting. But the way the Wildcats are "locked in" on the defensive end right now, I just don't see the Ramblers as being able to maintain their unlikely run that has seen them hit better than 50% from the field in the tournament. Keep in mind, Loyola is allowing 46% from the field in the tourney so the Wildcats hold the D edge here based on current level of play and Kansas State certainly holds an edge in terms of strength of schedule they faced this season. With Loyola playing the role of "Cinderella Story" in this tournament, we're getting line value with the Wildcats and I won't hesitate to step in as the money line is available at a nearly "pick'em price" on K-State in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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03-23-18 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #859 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors and Nets just met early last week in Brooklyn and the game barely stayed under the total. In the Nets other 10 games dating back to their final game of February, the over is 7-3. As for the Raptors, they played very solid defense late in their win at Orlando Tuesday but they then suffered a tough beat at Cleveland Wednesday as they let that one get away from them late. Toronto may not have a lot of defensive intensity left after trying desperately to hang on in that revenge game at Cleveland (they just can't see to win there) and, keep in mind, this is the Raptors 6th game in 9 days! Toronto has allowed 52.7% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. As for the Nets defense, they've allowed 110.4 points per game on the season. Brooklyn is 6-3 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Raptors are 6-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. This big total is absolutely justified and there won't be much D in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #872 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:25 ET - The Wildcats beat Alabama by 23 points despite hitting only 39.7% from the field. That certainly says a lot about just how good this Villanova team is. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 8-2 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games the past 3 tourneys combined. West Virginia has won and covered both their games so far in the tourney but they faced an Ohio Valley team and a Conference USA team. This is certainly a much stiffer challenge here and, keep in mind, the Mountaineers were only 9-9 SU their last 18 games prior to the Big Dance. As for Nova, they faced an SEC team Sunday and that is at least a tougher challenge than what West Virginia has faced so far. Also, the Mountaineers are 5-10 SU their last 15 as an underdog and 30 of the Wildcats 32 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 points or more. As you can, odds truly favoring a win for Nova by 7 or more and that gets us the cash here! We'll take it! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #818 Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:35 ET - The Aggies played the perfect game versus North Carolina and now the public is so enamored with Texas A & M that the line on Michigan in this game is being driven down from as high as a -4 to where it is now seems headed for a -2. Sure the Aggies looked great but everything was falling in for them and coming up roses while the Tar Heels couldn't buy a bucket. It was just one of those nights but now everyone over-reacts and you know where the value is now. Keep in mind, the Aggies beat a Providence team in round one that is certainly a good team but not great. Now A & M faces a Michigan team that has won 11 straight games and has allowed less than 35% from the field so far in this tourney. The Wolverines had a very tough shooting effort in their tight win over Houston in the 2nd round but Michigan had previously shot 44% or better in 8 straight games! Keep in mind, the Aggies (prior to getting hot in the first two games of this tourney) were held under 39.4% from the field in 3 straight games. I am not sold on this Aggies team but the world is and that has created value that is truly off the charts here with a Wolverines team that was seeded #3 with good reason! Big value here. 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -7.5 v. Magic | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are in a back to back spot here but they got up huge last night versus Memphis and were able to rest up for tonight's game at Orlando. Also, the Sixers first two back to backs this season have seen them win both and average 115 points per game. The Magic just don't have the offense to keep up here. Orlando has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The Magic were held to 88 points or less in 5 of those 7 defeats. To put that in proper perspective, Philly has been held to 88 points or less just once this entire season. In fact, the 76ers have scored 98 points or more in 12 straight games. That's why odds are high that another Philly victory by a double digit margin is on tap here. The Sixers have won both meetings with the Magic this season by double digits and the average margin of those games was 15 points. Another rout here. Orlando 4-10 SU and ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 10-4 SU and ATS versus Southeast Division opponents this season. Philly is 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-21-18 | Nuggets -9 v. Bulls | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #761 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday this line was as high as double digits but as of early this morning it has settled in at -9 in most spots. Of course the majority are looking at this game and find it hard to justify laying this big of a spread on the road but, trust me, the odds makers knew what they were doing setting this line this high. This one has road rout written all over it. Denver is fighting for their playoff lives but off of back to back losses and that is why they will take out their frustration on a Bulls team that has nothing to play for at this point in the season. Also, helping our cause here is the fact that Chicago is quite banged up right now. Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 meetings with the Bulls but only won by a single point in their non-covering win over the Bulls at home earlier this season. Chicago shot unusually well in that game and that won't happen again here. The Bulls have been held 45.1% or less from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. After the epic multiple-overtime loss at Miami Monday, Denver is fired up about responding huge here at Chicago. The Nuggets are a long-term 20-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Bulls have lost 10 of their last 14 games and the Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 wins. In other words, odds favor a big win and cover for the road fave in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 8 ET - Even though the Cowboys had a shot at the cover versus Stanford Wednesday, they certainly were fortunate to even have that end-game opportunity as they were unimpressive again. For the 4th straight game Oklahoma State was held under 41% from the field. I look for the cold shooting to catch up with them here because Western Kentucky comes into this game red hot. The Hilltoppers have shot better than 53.5% in each of their two games in this tournament and it is not like they played push-overs. Western Kentucky faced Boston College and USC. Also, prior to allowing 46.8% from the field against the Trojans, the Hilltoppers had held each of their 3 prior opponents to 38.5% or less from the field. Western Kentucky allowed just 59.3 points per game in those 3 contests. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and also are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Oklahoma State has gone 0-3 ATS this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 214 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #651 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Who would play defense in this one and why? The Raptors certainly have bigger fish to fry and the Magic are just playing out the string on the season. Orlando is off of a very ugly game versus Boston Friday which is helping to give line value here as that one fell well short of the total. The fact is that, prior to that game, the Magic had allowed an average of 112.7 points per game in their 3 prior games. Also, in their 5 prior home games, Orlando had averaged 113 points per game. These teams just met 3 weeks ago and the total opened up at a 220. With this one opening up a half-dozen points short of that, I'll gladly step in. The Raptors have allowed 54.2% from the field in their last two games and defense is unlikely to be a priority here with a huge game at Cleveland on deck for tomorrow night. The over is 8-4 this season when Toronto is off of an upset loss as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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03-20-18 | Penn State +2.5 v. Marquette | Top | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes Marquette has home court edge but there is a reason they opened at nearly a pick'em in this game. Now that the line is all the way up to a 2.5 as of early gameday morning it is "go time" with this one. The big edge the Nittany Lions have here is on the defensive end. Additionally, Penn State is loaded with confidence because they've notched a number of significant victories away from home this season. PSU just got a big win at Notre Dame here in the NIT and, previous to this, the Nittany Lions defeated Ohio State 3 times this season (including on a neutral floor and in Columbus) and they also lost at Purdue by just 3 points! Penn State has proven multiple times that they can raise their level away from home against top quality competition. The Golden Eagles shoot the 3-ball well but so too do the Nittany Lions. The key is on the defensive end where Penn State has allowed less than 30.9% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 6 games. By comparison, Marquette has given up 35% or more from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! On the season the Golden Eagles are allowing a dozen points more per game than PSU is. The Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in tournament games and 7-2 ATS their last 9 games versus teams that averaged 77 points or more per game. Marquette is 6-12 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. 10* PENN STATE |
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03-19-18 | Grizzlies v. Nets OVER 211.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #611 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:35 ET - I successfully used the over in Brooklyn when the Nets hosted the Mavericks Saturday and this is a very similar situation. You have two non-conference foes matched up and both teams playoff aspirations are long gone. Simply put this is the perfect type of match-up that lacks in intensity and that almost always features loosely played defense and up-tempo offense throughout. The fact that both the Grizzlies and Nets are off of wins also helps in this regard as that further lessens the likelihood of any intense defense being played here. The over is 15-5 the last 20 times these teams have met in New York. Also, Brooklyn enters this game having gone 6-3 to the over in their last 9 games. They've allowed 117.2 points per game in those 9 contests. The Grizzlies, prior to a very rare win Saturday, had allowed 115.3 points per game in their 3 prior games. When Memphis enters a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home, the over has gone 19-8. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-19-18 | Stanford v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 7 ET - This is a #2 vs #3 match-up in the NIT and the line may seem high given the small difference in seeding between these teams. However, don't be fooled, the Cowboys should absolutely win this game by double digits. Oklahoma State shot very poorly versus Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round but still won that game by double digits. Given that the Cowboys are again at home and off of a rare poor shooting performance, I expect a big game from Oklahoma State on the offensive end. As for the other end of the floor, the Cowboys have been playing much better than the Cardinal. OSU has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 41.7% or less from the field. Stanford, on the other hand, has allowed 44.7% or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Cardinal have allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cowboys have given up 68 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Oklahoma State has covered 6 of their last 7 games. Stanford is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 true road games. The Cardinal are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s and they get the job done again here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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03-18-18 | Florida State +6 v. Xavier | Top | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 8:40 ET - Here we go again. The odds makers, in the eyes of the public and therefore the betting markets, don't know what they're doing. After all, why would they make #1 seed Xavier only a 4 point favorite over the #9 seed Florida State? Guys I have said it many times before and I'll say it again. The odds makers are sharp. They know what they're doing. That doesn't mean that a method like this works all the time (because crazy things do happen in games from time to time as we all know) but the point is that this method does work quite often. That method is being contrarian and, of course, everyone has pounded on the #1 seed Musketeers here and driven this line all the way up to a 6 as of gameday morning. I'll gladly grab the other side and take the generous points. The Seminoles have more than enough to make up for the potential absence of Terance Mann and played Friday's game looking like the team they were early this season. Remember the Noles were 12-2 in early January after a win over North Carolina. This is a talented team that is very dangerous when they raise their game to another level and they proved that to be true again with their dominating effort versus Missouri in round one. Xavier is just 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and FSU is a long-term 6-1 ATS as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points AND all 6 of those wins were OUTRIGHT wins! Another potential upset here but at least a cover the way I handicap this one! 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-18-18 | Clemson v. Auburn -119 | Top | 84-53 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Marquee Mauling - Rickenbach CBB Game #724 Sunday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:10 ET - With this money line available at -120 as of early Sunday morning I would certainly recommend playing the money line for those of you that have access to it. Auburn went 21-6 SU this season versus teams with a winning record. Clemson went only 6-8 SU their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that poor stretch for Clemson relates closely to the time period that Donte Grantham has been out. The forward was lost for the season with an ACL injury and Clemson was a different team when he was on the floor. Auburn is on a 5-game ATS losing streak but there is no spread to be concerned with here with this line at virtually a pick'em. That said, I look for Auburn to improve to 14-1 SU this season in non-conference games. 10* AUBURN |
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03-18-18 | Thunder v. Raptors OVER 217 | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 1:05 ET - The Raptors and Thunder have gone over the total in each of their last 4 meetings. Overall, Toronto is 20-8 to the over in their last 28 games against Northwest Division opponents. Keep in mind, the Raptors aren't going to play as intense of defense against non-conference opponents as they would against a division rival. The same holds true for Oklahoma City and I look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Thunder games versus Atlantic Division rivals this season. The over is 5-2 in OKC's last 7 road games. Toronto is 20-2 SU in their last 22 games and their dynamic offense has led the way. The Raptors have averaged 115.5 points per game in those contests. They are a 6.5 point favorite here. If they just hit their recent average and the odds makers are right about the spread in this one, you're talking about a game hitting 225 points. That said, we have plenty of value here for a top play and that is what I am going with. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-17-18 | Florida +2 v. Texas Tech | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 8:40 ET - The Gators had some slip-ups this season but when they come to play they can play with anybody. That said, their performance against St Bonaventure in Round 1 showed me they're ready to go here in the Big Dance. Keep in mind, Florida beat Cincinnati, Kentucky, and Texas A & M in the regular season plus also beat Gonzaga by 6 and lost to Duke by just 3 points! Texas Tech's 10 point win over Stephen F Austin is the perfect example of a deceiving final score as the Lumberjacks were really in that game most of the way against the Red Raiders. It was the 8th straight Texas Tech game where the Red Raiders did not cover and I expect this one to make it 9 in a row. Keep in mind, TT entered that game on a 2-5 SU run and that included losses to West Virginia twice and Kansas as well. The point is that the Red Raiders have had trouble against the top teams in the nation and they're in trouble again here in my opinion. Texas Tech is on a 5-13 ATS run against teams with a winning record! The Gators are a long-term 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus Big 12 opponents and also an overall 12-4 ATS in games on a neutral court with a line between pick'em and +3. They get the job done again here! 10* FLORIDA |
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03-17-18 | Mavs v. Nets OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - This is the ideal type of late season match-up and scheduling situation that I look for when it comes to finding what should be an easy over. Non-conference match-up, two teams eliminated from playoff contention already, and both teams in a back to back spot. The fact each of these teams were in action last night means tired legs on defense which means less effort trying to close out on shooters or make the switch on screens, etc. The fact that neither team has playoff pressure means plenty of free-flowing offense in this one. Both teams scored very well last night and I expect more of the same here. Brooklyn has gone over the total each of the last two times they've hosted the Mavericks and the Nets game at Dallas earlier this season also went over the total. There should be very little defense in this game! 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #527 Saturday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7:10 ET - The #1 seed Jayhawks are laying a very small number against the #8 seed Pirates. Of course you know what that means for a contrarian guy like me. When something looks "off" or "too easy" you know where I'll be more often than not...on the other side! Many will be lining up to lay a very small number with a top-seeded Kansas team but I believe the odds makers were very sharp in the way they set this line because Seton Hall is built well for an upset here. If the Pirates do fall short look for it to be by just a single possession (3 points or less). Seton Hall is loaded with upper classmen, is solid both in the frontcourt and backcourt, and they are hungry after first round exits from the tourney each of the past two seasons. Now, after getting past NC State in the first game, look for the Pirates to make some noise in this tourney. The Jayhawks have been hot but Seton Hall is on a 6-0 ATS run. Also, Kansas only got 4 points from their bench in the win over Penn Thursday. The Quakers hung around with the Jayhawks until midway through the 2nd half. The Pirates can do more than just "hang around" here and the thin bench of Kansas could do them in here especially with 7-footer Udoka Azubuike still dealing with a knee injury for the Jayhawks. The Pirates are a long-term 26-11 ATS as an underdog and Kansas is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they've held an opponent to 66 points or less. They held Pennsylvania to 60 points Thursday. 10* SETON HALL |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse +4.5 v. TCU | Top | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #875 Friday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 9:40 ET - TCU started the season 12-0 and then wrapped up the season going 9-11. The Horned Frogs numbers on offense are impressive but they leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end. Facing Syracuse is going to be a problem as the Orange play a unique style that is tough to prepare for when you're not use to seeing it. This games has a low total posted on it because the odds makers are expecting Syracuse to dictate the tempo. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that TCU is an ugly 4-7 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range. Also, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Horned Frogs have gone 2-6 ATS and all 6 of those losses were upset defeats which is what I am expecting here. It actually helps that the Orange had the play-in game on Wednesday and they certainly impressed in their ability to slow down a high-powered Arizona State offense. Syracuse should do the same thing to TCU here. The Orange will take advantage of a Horned Frogs team that will struggle with its shooting after the long layoff. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS (including 4-0 ATS in recent seasons) when they are a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points. TCU went 1-4 SU this season when held to 68 points or less in a game and the Orange allowed 68 points or less in 22 of their 34 games this season. 10* SYRACUSE |
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03-16-18 | Nets v. 76ers -8 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #804 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for Philadelphia, there is no shortage of motivation here and clearly the 76ers are the better team of course. This is the first time that the Sixers are hosting the Nets since Brooklyn thoroughly embarrassed them in a 141-118 loss last April. Philly owes it to their home fans to get payback for that one here and, of course, the Sixers need every win they can get right now as they battle for playoff positioning. The line on this one opened up at 11.5 but is all the way down to an 8.5 as of early Friday morning. Of course that has added to the value here and the Sixers are 20-10 ATS at home this season and 8-3 ATS their last 11 games versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Brooklyn is 1-11 SU (and 4-8 ATS) in divisional games this season and the 76ers avenge last season's embarrassing home loss and, though this is a back to back spot, they still crush the Nets. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-16-18 | Kansas State +1 v. Creighton | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Friday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 6:50 ET - Creighton's overall numbers on the season look impressive but they rely heavily on outside shooting and that has not traveled well for them this season. The Bluejays are strong at home but on the road they've knocked down a more modest 34.8% of their threes while allowing 39.1% three-point shooting to their opponents. Creighton averages 77.2 ppg on the road while allowing 82.3 ppg away from home! While most all teams have a home/road dichotomy the Bluejays is at the far end of the spectrum and I will take advantage by backing Kansas State here. The Wildcats were no match for Kansas in the Big 12 tournament but, prior to that, the Cats had held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 67 points or less. That holds significance here as the Bluejays (prior to a tight loss in the Big East tournament) had allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Creighton is 2-8 ATS their last 10 lined games. The Wildcats were 5-3 ATS their last 8 games away from home prior to the ugly loss to the Jayhawks. The Cats are 4-0 SU the last 4 times they've played with 5 or 6 days of rest between games while the Bluejays are just 2-2 SU as their shooting tends to go cold after a layoff. Also, Creighton is on an ugly 3-9 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Going contrarian here. Give me the lower seed! 10* KANSAS STATE |