Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-08-20 | Flyers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the under between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the under in the Flyers last game and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with same play here. Carter Hart should be back between the pipes for Philadelphia and I’m confident he’ll turn in another stellar performance. In fact, this game features two of the world’s absolute best goaltenders in Hart and Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the number one overall seed (and a date with the Canadiens) hanging in the balance look for a tightly-contested affair on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Montreal at 4:08 pm et on Friday. With Montreal coming off a stunning come-from-behind 4-3 victory in Game 3 of this series I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair on Friday afternoon. We have the heavily favored Penguins facing elimination in this one which alone should help tighten things up on their end. Meanwhile, the Habs have received all-world goaltending from Carey Price in this series, even if Game 3 wasn't his best performance. I fully expect that to continue here as the Habs look to close things out. Look for the winner to score three or less in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a pitching duel in this matchup last night as the Brewers prevailed by a 1-0 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Josh Lindblom will take the ball for Milwaukee. He labored through this first start this season and I expect more of the same here. Note that he has made more than a single start in a season only once in his career, that coming back in 2013 when he made five starts for the Rangers, ultimately posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight appearances that year. Gio Gonzalez will counter for the White Sox. He's coming off a fine outing but there's no question he's on the downside of his career arc, managing only 23 starts since 2018 due to injuries and otherwise. He has yet to last through the fourth inning in two starts so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Capitals v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 4:08 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel that this total will prove too high as the Caps and Flyers continue round robin action in Toronto. Washington is coming off a hard-fought loss against the Lightning in their opener. I look for them to tighten things up here after digging an early 2-0 hole that they had a tough time recovering from in that one. Brian Elliott is expected to start in goal for the Flyers over Carter Hart in a bit of a surprise move. I do expect the Flyers to react accordingly and play this one a little closer to the vest. Hart has moved into elite status in the NHL while Elliott is certainly on the downside of his career but you have to think he'll be motivated off Hart's 34-save performance last time out. What this boils down to is I don't think we'll see the same level of offensive output from the Flyers after potting four goals against Boston. Take the under (10*). |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and New Orleans at 6:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the Grizzlies narrow loss to the Spurs yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as they match up against the struggling Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans is off to an 0-2 start so it will certainly be highly motivated to break out of its funk on Monday evening. This appears to be an ideal matchup for the Pelicans to do just that as they should be able to get out and run against a weary Grizzlies squad playing on no rest. Meanwhile, the Grizz have had two highly contrasted games so far with a high-scoring track meet against the Blazers followed by yesterday's relatively tight affair against the Spurs. Here, I'm confident we'll see them get loose and find some offensive success against a Pelicans that has struggled defensively all season long. Take the over (10*). |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between San Antonio and Memphis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Travel day today. Full analysis will return on Monday. |
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08-02-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under‘ between Cleveland and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full analysis will return on Monday. |
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07-31-20 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 218.5 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Friday. We saw both games stay 'under' the total in yesterday's double-header but I expect a different story to unfold as the Celtics and Bucks match up on day two of the NBA restart. Despite yesterday's results, I still believe we'll see some high-scoring affairs in the early going here at Disney as the teams have had more than enough time to get back into shape and acclimated with their surroundings. The Celtics and Bucks are two of the league's most dynamic offensive tams and I'm comfortable playing the 'over' at what I consider to be a low number. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-20 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 216 | 101-103 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 9 pm et on Thursday. Questions around Anthony Davis' health and absent members of the Clippers have pushed this total lower, but I believe it will prove too low as the oddsmakers shade the totals lower in general due to the uncertainty around the style of play in the Disney restart. I'm actually anticipating something resembling 'normal' NBA basketball as we get going here in Orlando. The players have had enough time to settle in to 'bubble life' and get acclimated back with the game of basketball during exhibition affairs. I don't need to tell you that both of these teams are capable of pushing the tempo and hanging crooked numbers on the scoreboard. This is the lowest total we've seen the oddsmakers put out there in a matchup between these L.A. rivals this season and I believe we should take advantage. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:07 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Shane Bieber's season debut against the Royals last week - a no sweat ticket from start to finish - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Bieber remains one of the most underrated and undervalued starters in baseball as far as I'm concerned. He picked up right where he left off following a tremendous 2019 campaign, tossing six shutout innings while striking out 14 last Friday night against the Royals. Jose Berrios didn't get off to the start he had hoped for, as he was rocked by the White Sox in his season debut. I do expect a better showing from the right-hander here as he returns home to the friendly confines of Target Field. Since a shaky rookie campaign in 2016, Berrios has been terrific at the big league level - last season posting a 3.68 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in over 200 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 221 | 106-104 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and New Orleans at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. While more than a little rust is to be expected as the NBA returns following a four-month hiatus, I do feel that these teams have had more than enough time to get acclimated with their surroundings at Disney Wide World of Sports and I believe we'll see something that closely resembles 'normal' NBA play on Thursday. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this particular matchup this season, noting that all three regular season affairs went 'over' the total. The Pelicans got good news with the return of Zion Williamson this week and by all accounts he'll be good to go for Thursday's opener. I'll take a shot with the 'over' as I anticipate a relatively loose affair to get things started in Orlando. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game between the D'Backs and Rangers on Wednesday afternoon as two veteran starters go head-to-head at Globe Life Park. Madison Bumgarner will take the ball for the Giants. Despite posting the highest ERA of his career, Bumgarner matched his career-high in games started and exceeded his career-high in strikeouts per nine innings while also recording a career-low in walks per nine innings last season. He didn't get off to the start he hoped for with the D'Backs in his 2020 debut, allowing three earned runs while striking out only four and walking three in 5 2/3 innings of work last week. Look for a solid bounce-back performance from the veteran left-hander here. Lance Lynn will counter for the Rangers. Despite pitching for three different teams over the last three seasons he has seemingly gotten better with each passing year. He actually finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young voting last season, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while recording a career-high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In his 2020 debut he tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the Rockies last week. Take the under (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the 'under' in this matchup on Tuesday night, after we saw a whopping 19 runs cross home plate in last night's series opener. Kyle Wright has struggled in 11 career big league appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons but I expect to see him settle down after locking down the fifth spot in the Atlanta rotation with Cole Hamels still on the shelf. Wright rounded into form during Summer Camp and draws a reasonable matchup here catching the Rays off a big performance last night. Yonny Chirinos will counter for the Rays. He was late joining the Rays after testing positive for Covid-19 but by all accounts he's back to full health now. Chirinos is starting his third big league season after pitching well in both 2018 and 2019. Last season he allowed just 112 hits and posted a 114:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 133 1/3 innings of work. The Braves have been quite inconsistent at the plate in the early going this season with young slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. in particular struggling out of the gate. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Sunday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Kendall Graveman wowed the Mariners staff during Summer Camp and I look for him to hold his own against the mighty Astros in this matchup. A fresh start with a new team might be just what the doctor ordered for Graveman after he struggled in limited work with the A's last season. Note that he has seen his strikeout per nine innings increase over each of the last three seasons. Josh James served as a reliever for the Astros last season but is pressed into starting duty as the 2020 campaign gets underway. James is a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher that should find some success against a relatively inexperienced Mariners batting order. If James can figure out his command issues he could be a force at the back of the Astros rotation. Take the under (10*). |
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07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 14-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 7:08 pm et on Sunday. Neither offense has come roaring out of the gates, which is probably to be expected. I believe we're dealing with a slightly higher total than we should be in Sunday night's series finale. Sean Newcomb will make the start for the Braves. After making 49 starts in 2017 and 2018 only four of his 55 appearances last year were starts. He has managed to lower his walks per nine innings total in each of his first three seasons. He still puts too many runners on base in general but I do think he's catching the Mets at the right time as they continue to shake off the rust at the dish. Rick Porcello gets the nod for the Mets, making his team debut. Like Newcomb, he tends to put too many runners on base but continues to be serviceable in the latter stages of his lengthy big league career. While the Braves offense has a ton of upside, we haven't seen it through the first two days of the season and I'm confident the veteran Porcello can navigate this lineup on Sunday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night at Progressive Field. While I'm not particularly high on Royals starter Danny Duffy, there's no question he's a 'serviceable' left-handed big league starter, and capable of keeping the Indians bats at bay here in the 2020 opener. The Indians really didn't do a lot to improve their order during the offseason and as will likely be a theme here early on, I expect the pitchers to be slightly ahead of the hitters in this odd July start to the campaign. Note that Duffy lasted at least six innings in both starts against Cleveland last season. Shane Bieber is the Indians undisputed ace, and would be an ace on most big league staffs to be honest. While he's still relatively early in his career, Bieber remains one of the more underrated starters in the bigs as far as I'm concerned. Bieber incredibly enters this campaign having worked at least into the sixth inning in 20 consecutive starts - a streak I look for him to continue here against the Royals. Kansas City does have some upside at the dish but once again, I'll take the pitchers over the hitters here in late July. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-20 | AC Milan v. Sassuolo Calcio OVER 3.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between AC Milan and Sassuolo at 3:45 pm et on Tuesday. This is a terrific spot to play the 'over' with Sassuolo coming off an expected letdown in a 1-1 draw with Cagliari after a thrilling 3-3 draw against Juventus in the match previous. AC Milan has been scoring goals in bunches, managing 19 goals in six matches here in July. It hasn't lost a match since the Serie A restart back in June. I recommend playing 'over' 3.5 for a stronger return here. Take the over 3.5 goals (10*). |
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07-11-20 | New York v. Atlanta United OVER 3 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United at 8 pm et on Saturday. The MLS is Back Tournament has gotten off to a bit of a sloppy start but I'm anticipating an exciting, high-scoring affair between two of the league's best teams in New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United on Saturday night in Orlando. Atlanta was off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season prior to the Covid stoppage, scoring four goals in two matches. Meanwhile, New York had gone 1-0-1, also scoring four goals in the process. The last time these two squads met was last July, when they combined to score a whopping six goals in a wild 3-3 draw. We won't need that level of offensive production to cash our ticket on Saturday. Note that I'm personally playing this one over 3 goals to get the favorable plus-money return. Playing over 2 3/4 is also an option if you're looking for a little less risk but for grading purposes, we'll call it 3. Take the over 3 goals (10*). |
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07-10-20 | San Jose v. Seattle Sounders FC UNDER 3 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3 goals between San Jose and Seattle at 9 pm et on Friday. Most bettors will be quick to back the Seattle Sounders here but I'm not so easily convinced that this is a slam dunk for the perennial MLS Cup contenders. With that being said, I'm not going to back a San Jose squad that has finished no better than sixth place in the Western Conference in the last seven seasons. I do expect to see the Earthquakes do what they can to keep the Sounders offense at bay here and chances are we're not going to see a peak performance from Seattle in its first appearance back on the pitch in over four months. Remember, prior to the Covid stoppage the Sounders needed an injury time goal to get past Chicago 2-1 and a 79th minute penalty to earn a 1-1 draw against Columbus. San Jose can ill afford to turn in the type of loose performance that saw it settle for a 2-2 draw with Toronto and drop a 5-2 decision against Minnesota to open the campaign back in February/March if it's going to stay within arm's reach of Seattle. Take the under (10*). |
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07-10-20 | Deportivo Alaves v. Real Madrid UNDER 3 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3 goals between CD Alaves and Real Madrid at 4 pm et on Friday. Alaves has scored just one goal in seven matches since La Liga play resumed last month. It will obviously be hard pressed to strike against an elite Real Madrid squad that has gone a perfect 7-0 since play resumed. Real Madrid will simply be looking to take full advantage of its game in hand on Barcelona and extend its lead atop the La Liga table by four points with a victory here. It will be comfortable to walk away with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory, noting that it is coming off three consecutive 1-0 wins. Take the under 3 goals (10*). |
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07-08-20 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 3.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 3.5 goals between Sampdoria and Atalanta at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring Serie A affair on Wednesday. Sampdoria sits 14th in Serie A but has gained some confidence with back-to-back victories and hasn't been held scoreless in a match since back in late January. Atalanta has impressed all season long but checks in off back-to-back low-scoring affairs. In fact, it hasn't given up a single goal in its last two matches. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. Take the over 3.5 goals (10*). |
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07-02-20 | Napoli v. Atalanta OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ 3 goals between Napoli and Atalanta at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Atalanta has seen at least five total goals scored in six consecutive matches and I look for that streak to continue against Napoli on Thursday. Grab the over 3 while you can but I would also play this one at 3.5. Note that Napoli is fresh off a 3-1 victory and hasn’t suffered a loss since the second week of February. The most recent meeting between Atalanta and Napoli finished in a 2-2 draw last October and current form indicates we'll see a similar result here. Both squads are capable of scoring in bunches and I certainly look for that here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-01-20 | Norwich City v. Arsenal UNDER 3 | 0-4 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on 'under' 3 goals between Norwich City and Arsenal at 1 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a low-scoring contest between these two squads on Wednesday, in spite of their 2-2 result earlier this season. Arsenal comes in off back-to-back wins, scoring two goals in each contest. It hadn't put together back-to-back two-goal performances since January and its next match after that finished 0-0. Norwich City sits 20th in the EPL but is coming off a hard-fought 2-1 extra time loss against Manchester United in FA Cup action. While it did manage to find the back of the net in that match it hadn't scored a single goal in its previous three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-30-20 | Manchester United v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We're getting a favorable total to work with here, largely due to the expectation that Manchester United will be able to name its score, so to speak. Man U is rolling off back-to-back victories, scoring five goals in the process. I do expect Brighton & Hove to put up a fight on Tuesday, however, and ultimately help keep the final score in check and 'under' the posted total. Brighton checks in 15th in the EPL this season but has impressed since play has resumed, going 1-0-1 with a win over Arsenal and a draw with Leicester last time out. Despite losing the ball possession battle by a wide margin, it allowed just two shots on goal in the draw. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-20 | West Bromwich Albion v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between West Brom and Brentford at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in this match between the two highest scoring squads in the English Championship. Brentford wasted no time getting back to business last week as it rolled to a 2-0 victory over Fulham. Going back over its last three matches, Brentford has tallied an impressive nine goals. Things will be a little tougher against first place West Brom but it's worth noting that Brentford did have the edge in terms of ball possession and shots while also scoring once in the last meeting between the two squads. Brentford checks in as the highest scoring team in the English Championship this season. West Brom sits just two goals behind and is in good bounce-back position off a nil-nil draw against Birmingham City last Saturday. Look for a strong response from the first place Albion on Friday. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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06-25-20 | Manchester City v. Chelsea UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3 goals between Manchester City and Chelsea at 3:15 pm et on Thursday. While most are expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this marquee EPL showdown, I'm going to go the other way and support the 'under' on Thursday afternoon. Chelsea conceded a first half goal but surged ahead in the second half in a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa last time out. It will need to tighten things up further if its going to hold Manchester City in check on Thursday. Man City has come roaring back out of the gates since the restart earlier this month, recording 3-0 and 5-0 wins over Arsenal and Burnley, respectively. It will be stepping up in class here, in comparison with those two previous matches anyway, and I certainly don't expect to see it roll in that fashion. I do feel we'll get a winner in this match, but I believe that side tops out at two goals (at most). Shop around to find a '3' (or look for the Asian totals option). Take the under 3 goals (10*). |
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06-24-20 | Sheffield United v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 103 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the over 2.5 goals between Sheffield United and Manchester United at 1 pm et on Wednesday. I like the value being offered with the 'over' in this match on Wednesday. Man U is coming off a 1-1 draw against Tottenham last Friday as the Red Devils got bogged down and were ultimately fortunate to come away with a draw (even if the result could have been better were it not for a reversed penalty call late). Here, I look for Man U to get loose against Sheffield United, which is fresh off a disappointing 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Newcastle. I'm not willing to lay the big price here, so will instead look to the total as I look for both sides to find the scoresheet and ultimately push this one 'over' the reasonable number. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Magic have exploded for 132 and 126 points in posting consecutive wins in Minnesota and Houston but I believe they'll be in for a stiffer challenge in Memphis on Tuesday. Going back to February 26th, Orlando has actually scored 130+ points on two other occasions as well, but those performances came against the T'Wolves (again) and the Hawks - one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Memphis has been playing pretty solid defensive basketball lately, save for a poor performance in Dallas last Friday. Outside of that, the Grizz have allowed 104 points or less in five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 54-15 going all the way back to 1996 when the total has been set at 220 or higher and both teams are coming off blowout wins (by 15+ and 20+ points). This trend has cashed at a 14-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-20 | Coyotes v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames woke up in the third period and ultimately foiled our play on the Blue Jackets two nights ago, securing a 3-2 overtime win. Here, I anticipate a higher-scoring affair as Calgary welcomes the Coyotes on Friday night. Arizona is fresh off a 4-2 win over the Canucks two nights ago and riding high off back-to-back wins. The Yotes will be looking to avenge a 5-2 loss to the Flames in their most recent meeting back on December 10th. Look for both teams to find success offensively in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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03-06-20 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 246 | 112-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This has all the makings of a track meet, hence the extremely high posted total - although not exorbitant by today's standards. Both teams are coming off rare subpar offensive performances and that leads me to believe we'll see a big bounce-back here. Neither defense will offer anything in the way of resistance and I'm confident we'll see both offenses push the tempo from start to finish. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-20 | Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 246.5 | 139-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board but it's high for a reason. The Pelicans are a big favorite here but they're in a definite letdown spot off Sunday night's showdown with Lebron James and the Lakers. We can anticipate them letting their guard down defensively and the T'Wolves are certainly able to take advantage. On the flip side, Minnesota won't have any answers for the Pelicans steadily-improving offense led by mighty Zion. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-20 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 215 | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Raptors are in an obvious emotional letdown spot here, coming off that tough loss to the Bucks on Tuesday night and now facing the lowly Hornets. Note that the 'over' is 26-15 when the Hornets have played with double revenge over the last two seasons with those games averaging over 222 total points. The 'over' is 14-3 when the Raptors face opponents that get outscored by at least three points per game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just under 233 total points per game. Two previous meetings between these teams this season have totaled 228 and 222 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-20 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With both of these teams playing the second of back-to-back nights (and both coming off losses), I don't think either will be looking to get involved in a track meet here. Keep in mind, the 76ers are down a couple of bodies in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Philadelphia allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.6% from the field in last night's upset loss in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Knicks shot better than 50% but still managed only 101 points against a bad Hornets team in Charlotte. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Sixers focus on the defensive end of the floor, and they've been outstanding in that regard here at home, giving up just over 102 points per game while holding the opposition to 43.8% shooting. The Knicks have held six of their last seven opponents below 50% shooting, which is a step in the right direction given their struggles this season. Away from home they're limiting the opposition to 46.4% shooting this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-20 | Sabres v. Avalanche OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Colorado at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games last time out and Colorado has seen the 'under' cash in nine of its last 10 games overall. With that being said, I look for both offenses to bust out on Wednesday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-2 when the Avs return home off a road game this season, with those contests totaling an average of 8.2 goals. The Sabres are allowing four goals on average when hitting the road following a home win this season. The last 34 times the Avs have faced an opponent that averages at least 2.85 goals per game, those contests have totaled an average of 6.8 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-20 | Sharks v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Tuesday night as the reeling Sharks face the surging Flyers. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-5 when the Sharks come off a loss by two goals or more this season with those games totaling just 5.3 goals on average. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when the Flyers revenge a loss by four goals or more against an opponent with those contests reaching an average of only 4.1 total goals. This isn't a high-energy spot for either team with the Sharks wrapping up a four-game eastern road swing and the Flyers looking ahead to a home-and-home set with the division rival Rangers. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 134.5 | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas at 9 pm et on Monday. Kansas enters this game having shot better than 50% from the field in back-to-back games, including a huge win at Baylor in a revenge spot on Saturday. Note that Oklahoma State hasn't allowed an opponent to shoot 50% from the field since back on February 1st against Oklahoma. That stretch includes a game in which the Cowboys held the Jayhawks to 38.9% shooting, albeit in a 15-point loss (that game totaled only 115 points). Note that the 'under' has gone 79-49 when Kansas comes off back-to-back games shooting at least 50% from the field going all the way back to 1997. The 'under' is also 16-5 when Oklahoma State comes off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-20 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 241 | 137-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This total indicates the high potential for a track meet on Monday night, just as we saw the last time these two teams met back in January when they combined to score a whopping 282 points in Milwaukee. Note that the Wizards have posted a 9-1 o/u record after failing to cover the spread in consecutive games this season with those contests totaling an average of nearly 243 points. There's no reason to shy away from playing 'over' these high totals with the Wiz involved as the 'over' has gone 19-10 in their games where the total has been set at 230 points or higher, with those contests finishing with an average of just under 244 total points. The Bucks have come storming out of the All-Star break with back-to-back blowout wins over the Pistons and 76ers but I could certainly envision a bit of a letdown here, and that should open the door for a competitive, high-scoring affair in the nation's capital. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-20 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the surging Pelicans head to San Francisco to take on the reeling Warriors on Sunday evening. Most will be expecting a track meet here, especially with the Pelicans coming off a 128-115 win and the Warriors off a 135-105 loss in their respective first games following the All-Star break. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-9 when the Warriors face an opponent with a losing record this season, with those games averaging just 113 total points. The 'under' has also gone 13-4 when the Warriors have lost at least four straight losses this season, with those games averaging right around 118 total points - again far south of the total we're working with. New Orleans has seen the 'under' go 131-99 when on the road revenging a same season loss. The Pelicans have allowed just one of their last 11 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-20 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Minnesota at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Blues are coming off a five-goal outburst in a win in Dallas while the Wild just got done scoring nine goals in notching back-to-back victories in western Canada. I expect defense and goaltending to be the story of the day on Sunday, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 13-4 when the Blues are on the road coming off a win by at least three goals over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 4.9 goals. The 'under' has gone 8-1 in Wild home games after consecutive games where at least seven goals were scored over the last two seasons. Those nine games averaged a total of just 4.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-20 | World v. USA OVER 298 | 131-151 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between World and USA in the NBA All-Star Rising Stars Game at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Last year's Rising Stars Game reached 305 total points. I don't believe they've set this year's total high enough as this will be the ultimate track meet. Team USA is favored by around five points in this one, and rightfully so with an absolutely loaded roster led by Trae Young and Zion Williamson. I don't expect the World Team to back down, however, not with Luka Doncic leading the way. No need to overthink this one, this will be one of the highlights of All-Star Weekend, as it always is. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind this lofty total but I feel it will prove too high on Tuesday night at Capital One Arena. The Bulls have not been the same team offensively on the road this season, where they rank 23rd in the league in offensive rating. On the flip side, they check in a very respectable ninth in defensive rating away from home. While Washington is known for its up-tempo offense, the fact is it sits middle of the pack in offensive rating at home (15th in the NBA). Not surprisingly, the Wiz are near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories but can the Bulls really take advantage? It's not as if Chicago has been performing well offensively in recent games as it ranks 24th in the Association in offensive rating over its last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-20 | Heat v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers most recent home game - a high-scoring win over the Spurs. I expect a different type of contest to play out on Sunday, however, as Portland hosts the injury-plagued Heat. Only the Pistons have played at a slower pace than the Heat over their last five games and I expect that trend to continue here as Miami continues to play without Jimmy Butler among others. Note that Miami ranks 27th in the league in pace rating on the road this season as well. Portland sits in a tie for 13th in pace rating over its last five games and finds itself playing its third game in four nights here on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a defensive slugfest by any means, I do expect this one to stay 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-20 | Mavs v. Hornets OVER 216.5 | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Dallas' one-point loss in Washington last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Mavs continue their road trip in Charlotte. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Mavs rank tops in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. Here, they draw another favorable matchup against a Hornets squad that ranks 27th in the league in defensive rating at home this season - only the Cavs, Hawks and Wizards rank worse. While the Hornets rank last in the league in pace rating here at home, I do think they'll make a concerted effort to push the pace on Saturday night with the Mavs in a back-to-back spot, and still playing without Luka Doncic. In Doncic's absence, Dallas continues to struggle defensively, sitting 22nd in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-20 | Mavs v. Wizards OVER 234 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Even with the Mavs injury issues, I'll back the 'over' in Washington on Friday night. The Mavs sit 27th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games - only the Cavs, Bulls and Wizards have been worse over that same stretch. Not surprisingly, that coincides with the injury to Luka Doncic. Despite losing Doncic, the Mavs still sit 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests and should be able to find success regardless whether Kristaps Porzingis suits up after suffering a broken nose last time out. Note that the Mavs rank tops in the league in offensive rating on the road this season and it's really not all that close. The Wizards are fifth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. Only the Cavs are worse than the Wiz in defensive rating at home, again opening the door for an undermanned but still effective Mavs offense here. Expect a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers OVER 231.5 | Top | 117-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this key Western Conference showdown on Thursday night. The Spurs were a virtual no-show against the Lakers last time out (we won with Los Angeles in that game) but couldn't really be blamed as they were in a tough back-to-back spot after taking the Clippers down to the wire the previous night. Of course, the Blazers also got blown out in their last game, dropping a lopsided decision in Denver (we won with the Nuggets). Here, I expect both teams to show up and show out, offensively at least. Note that the Spurs rank ninth in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. The downside is they rank 26th in defensive rating away from home, with only the Hornets, Cavs, Hawks and Wizards - four of the league's worst teams - ranking worse. It's a similar story for the Blazers at home. They're fourth in offensive rating here in the Pacific Northwest but 27th in defensive rating with only the Pistons, Wizards and Cavs sitting below them - again, three of the league's weakest defensive teams. The last time these two teams met back in November they smashed this same posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 216 | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. You have to think the Jazz, who have been idle since Saturday, will be looking to push the pace at every opportunity against a Nuggets squad playing its third game in four days (in three different cities). With that being said, I don't think we'll see Denver back down in this showdown between the Northwest Division's top two teams, noting that the Nuggets managed to score 127 points despite barely breaking a sweat against the previously red hot Trail Blazers last night (we won with Denver in that game). The last meeting between these two teams took place just last week with the Nuggets prevailing by a 106-100 score at home. Expect a higher-scoring affair this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Hawks v. Wolves OVER 236.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I expect nothing less than a track meet between these 'defense-optional' teams on Wednesday night in Minnesota. The Hawks were already short-handed before getting involved in Tuesday's expansive four-team trade with the Rockets, Nuggets and T'Wolves. There's little doubt Minnesota will look to push the pace against Atlanta here as it looks to finally snap its long losing streak but I don't think we'll see the Hawks shy away from that at all. Note that Atlanta sits in the top half of the league in offensive rating over its last five games, despite three of those contests coming against the likes of Toronto, Boston and Dallas. The Raps and Celtics sit second and third respectively in terms of defensive rating over their last five games. Here, Atlanta should find the going much easier against a T'Wolves squad that ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating over that same stretch. The Hawks check in third in pace rating over their last five contests while the T'Wolves are top 10 in that category as well over the same time frame. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 216 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pacers continue to struggle defensively, as they sit 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They let the Mavs get whatever they wanted offensively on Monday night (despite missing Luka Doncic), falling for a second straight game at home. That makes this a nightmarish matchup against a surging Raptors squad that ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games while also sitting in the top half of the league in pace rating over that same stretch. With that being said, the Pacers are still a quality basketball team and it's only a matter of time before Victor Oladipo settles in and starts knocking down his shots after returning a couple of games back. Here, I do think they'll get baited into an up-tempo affair. It's worth noting that these two teams combined to score 235 points in their most recent meeting back on December 23rd. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-20 | Predators v. Jets OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Nashville and Winnipeg at 8:08 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are somewhat surprisingly sitting on the outside looking in as far as the Western Conference playoff picture goes. With that being said, neither is out of the running. The Preds sit four points back of the second Wild Card spot while the Jets are just three points back. With that in mind, I'm expecting both teams to come out flying on Tuesday night and I expect a much different story to unfold after Nashville skated to a 1-0 victory in their most recent meeting. The Jets should be high on confidence after scoring five goals against the defending champion Blues on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Preds will be eager to bounce back after getting shut out by the Knights last time out. Prior to that, Nashville had scored 10 goals in regulation time in its last two games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:25 pm et on Sunday February 2nd. Last year’s expected Super Bowl shootout between the Patriots and Rams fizzled but I expect a different story to unfold this year as the upstart 49ers take on the Chiefs in Miami. The hype surrounding the 49ers defense continues to build as this game approaches. Yes, the Niners have an elite defense across the board but I believe their aggressive nature (not necessarily in terms of their blitz packages, or lack thereof) may end up costing them in this particular matchup. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has re-emerged as a true running threat now that he has healed from multiple in-season injuries he suffered. That’s to say nothing of his ability to get the ball to his electric pass-catching corps. As good as the Niners are on defense, they’re unquestionably going to have their hands full on Sunday evening. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense really came into its own down the stretch and came up big when the chips were down in two playoff games – out of necessity mind you, after digging themselves early deficits in both of those contests. I’m just not sure the Niners are getting nearly enough credit for the creativity and explosiveness of their offense, which does match up well with the Chiefs defense here. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t filled up the stat sheet in these playoffs, but he hasn’t had to. Playing with big leads for much of those two wins over the Vikings and Packers, Garoppolo was limited to ‘game manager’ duty. Here, we should see him pressed into action and I’m confident he can orchestrate some big plays downfield with his highly-underrated group of pass-catchers. Last year’s dud notwithstanding, the Super Bowl has delivered many exciting, high-scoring affairs in recent years and I’m anticipating another instant classic on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-20 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 114-130 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with an extremely high total here when you consider the Raptors are locked in defensively right now, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Hawks are fresh off an emotional, predictably high-scoring win at home against the Wizards on Sunday but should find the going much tougher as they step up in class here on Tuesday night in Toronto. Despite that offensive explosion on Sunday, the Hawks still sit just 15th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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01-24-20 | Kings v. Bulls UNDER 219 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Kings carry a reputation as being an up-tempo offensive team but that simply hasn't been the case, certainly of late. Sacramento ranks 19th in the league in pace rating over its last five games and 20th in offensive rating. Chicago has been even worse, sitting 23rd in offensive rating over that same stretch. It is worth noting that the Kings rank dead last in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests but that's certainly been baked into this total, and I'm just not sure Chicago is capable of taking advantage tonight. For their part, the Bulls sit in the top nine in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Even after the Chiefs were involved in an 82-point game against Houston last week, I don't believe the oddsmakers have set the total high enough in this weekend's showdown with upstart Tennessee. RB Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans against a Chiefs defense you can certainly run on, particularly if run-stuffing DT Chris Jones can't go, as expected to be the case. But I don't believe nearly enough people are giving QB Ryan Tannehill any shot at keeping up with Pat Mahomes should this turn into a shootout. I'm actually confidence that Tannehill, who has been one of the league's most efficient passers down the stretch this season, can consistently move the football through the air, and come up with a handful of explosive plays should the Chiefs elect to sell out to slow down Henry. On the flip side, Tennessee doesn't generate nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to give it any hope that it can contain Mahomes in this one. As we saw in last week's game, albeit against an inferior defense, this Chiefs offense is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. If the Titans come into this game thinking they can turn it into a slugfest, I think they will be sorely mistaken. I'm anticipating a shootout, just as we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-15-20 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 211.5 | 119-118 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Staples Center on Wednesday night, noting that these two teams combined to score just 183 total points in their last meeting back in December. The Lakers are tops in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while the Magic aren't far behind sitting in third spot. On the flip side, the Lakers rank an impressive second in offensive rating over that same stretch but keep in mind, three of their last five contests came against three of the league's worst defensive teams in the Pistons, Wizards and Cavaliers. The Magic check in 17th in offensive rating over their last five games. Neither team has been really pushing the pace lately with the Lakers sitting 14th and the Magic 19th over their last five. Take the under (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up perfectly as we're dealing with a relatively low total based on all four games last week staying 'under' the total and the fact that the 49ers reputation as a 'defense first' team preceeds them. That's not to mention the notion that the Vikings offense can only go as far as QB Kirk Cousins takes them and the belief that he's in line for a bad game after holding his own in New Orleans last week. I believe the potential is there for a shootout in Santa Clara as the Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers offense doesn't get nearly enough respect. This is one of the most creative offenses in the NFL today and with extra time to prepare I fully expect Kyle Shanahan's squad to pull out all the stops against a very beatable Vikings defense on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are riding high after playing a near-perfect road game in New Orleans last Sunday. I'm not a Kirk Cousins doubter. I'm confident we'll see him turn in another strong performance here with all of his weapons likely at his disposal with WR Adam Thielen expected to be good to go. The common narrative is that the 49ers defense is healthy now and poised to dominate the Vikings, but I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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01-08-20 | Jets v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Leafs are coming off a high-scoring affair on Monday night against Edmonton, falling by a 6-4 score. I expect things to settle down on Wednesday, however, as Toronto hosts Winnipeg. The Jets are fresh off a 3-2 win in Montreal on Monday night. The Leafs and Jets just faced one another on January 2nd with Toronto winning by a 6-3 score. Each of their previous three meetings had totaled six goals or less, including two games here in Toronto totaling only four and five goals. While the Leafs do have a ton of offensive firepower, I don't think they want to get involved in another wild, high-scoring game here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' on Monday night as the Redhawks and Ragin' Cajuns meet at the tail-end of Bowl season. Both teams will obviously be well-rested and well-prepared for this one having been idle for over a month. Miami-Ohio does not have an explosive offense by any means and will be best suited to turn this into a slugfest. That may be easier said than done as the Ragin' Cajuns do possess a high-octane offense. With that being said, we've seen the Redhawks rise to the occasion a number of times this season and I'm confident they can do so again here. Louisiana-Lafayette thrived against a number of punchless defenses in the Sun Belt over the course of the season but should find the sledding a little tougher here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a shootout waiting to happen as far as I'm concerned and I fully expected to see the total set well into the 50's so we're getting value playing 'over' the current number. The Vikings will likely be in comeback mode for much of the afternoon on Sunday but that should serve their offense well, with QB Kirk Cousins comfortable slinging it around in a dome setting and WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen set to take advantage of a beatable Saints pass defense. While New Orleans has held up well against the run this season, it will undoubtedly have its hands full with a now-healthy Dalvin Cook, who should be a workhorse for the Vikes on Sunday. I don't think Minnesota has much hope of slowing the Saints surging offense, which didn't take its foot off the gas one bit in Week 17. That performance should serve New Orleans well as it rolls into this eruption spot against the Vikings. RB Alvin Kamara re-emerged as a threat both on the ground and in the passing game down the stretch and he should see plenty of usage in this matchup as well. The Vikes don't have anyone that can cover WR Michael Thomas, who is well-positioned to turn in the best performance of any receiver on Wild Card Weekend. Take the over (10*). |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and New England at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. This projects to be a low-scoring affair between the Titans and Patriots in Foxborough on Saturday night. We've actually won some money playing the 'over' in games involving the Titans this season but Mike Vrabel's squad is in a tough spot here. We know that Bill Bellichick will do everything he can to take away the Titans best offensive weapon, that being RB Derrick Henry. Of course, Tennessee also has emerging superstar WR A.J. Brown, but he should be handled by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore. Of course, New England's offense has seemingly gotten worse as the season has gone on. QB Tom Brady's elbow obviously isn't right, nor is WR Julian Edelman operating at 100%. I do think we'll see the Pats ground game and short passing game find some success in this matchup, but that should only lead to long, clock-churning scoring drives, helping our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' in the first of four NFL Wild Card matchups. I don't think anything is going to come easy for Texans QB DeShaun Watson in this game. The Bills defense has been vulnerable against the run at times, but I don't believe the Texans boast a strong enough ground game to really open up the offense here. The blueprint has already been laid out for slowing Watson - even the Bucs were able to keep him in check in a key late season matchup. On the flip side, the Bills offense doesn't have a particularly high ceiling. Even in games where Josh Allen has erupted, the Bills haven't always put up a boatload of points. I actually feel that both of these teams have a fairly low ceiling as far as point production goes in this contest, which obviously sets us up well with the 'under' as this total has crept up as the week has progressed. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati UNDER 55.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Cincinnati at 3 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than expected on Thursday afternoon. Boston College will be without elite NFL-ready RB A.J. Dillon in this one, severely hampering its offensive attack. Defensively, we saw the Eagles stiffen up down the stretch. Over their final three games they didn't allow a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Florida State, held Notre Dame out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half, and didn't allow a Pitt touchdown until the third quarter. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder has impressed over the course of his Bearcat career but didn't enjoy a banner season in 2019, particularly down the stretch. Whether due to injury or otherwise, Ridder threw multiple touchdown passes just once in his last six games. He also threw for more than 200 yards only once over that stretch. While I do respect the Cincinnati offense, I don't expect to see it go off in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-20 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 226.5 | 107-117 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' at Staples Center on Wednesday night as both the Suns and Lakers seek their third straight victories. Note that Phoenix checks in sixth in offensive rating over its last five games. The Lakers on the other hand, do sit in the top half of the league in that category (14th) over the same stretch. In terms of defensive rating, the Suns rank a miserable 28th over their last five contests while the Lakers haven't been much better, sitting 22nd. Both teams have been middle of the pack in terms of pushing the pace lately, but that doesn't concern me all that much as I think both can be drawn into an up-and-down affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn OVER 53 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Auburn at 1 pm et on Wednesday. This game has shootout potential as the upstart Golden Gophers challenge SEC stalwarts Auburn in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day. Minnesota actually put up some solid defensive numbers during the regular season but was certainly buoyed by a schedule that boasted few offensive juggernauts. There is plenty of reason to be confident in the Golden Gophers offense, however. QB Tanner Morgan threw for at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. While RB Rodney Smith cooled off down the stretch, there's no question the Gophers backfield is capable of busting out here. Auburn took on all comers during the regular season, culminating with a 48-45 win over Alabama on November 30th. QB Bo Nix had his ups and downs and didn't throw multiple touchdown passes in any of his last five games. I do think he can take advantage of a middle of the road Minnesota defense here, however. I've been high on Tigers RB JaTarvious Whitlow all season. He wasn't given a heavy workload but showed flashes of brilliance, most recently running for 114 yards on 16 carries against Alabama. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah OVER 54 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Utah at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth shootout between the Longhorns and Utes in the Alamo Bowl on Tuesday night. Even though Texas stumbled down the stretch, losing two of its last three games, QB Sam Ehlinger kept rolling along, throwing for over 800 yards and five touchdowns over that stretch. His exploits should be on full display once again here, even against a stellar Utah defense. The Utes won't back down from a shootout. They got caught flat-footed in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon (we won with the Ducks in that game) but should be well prepared and well-suited to go toe-to-toe with the Longhorns. QB Tyler Huntley had just two games where he didn't throw a touchdown pass this season. RB Zack Moss had only four games where he didn't run for over 100 yards and scored at least one touchdown in 10 of 12 games he appeared in. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has the makings of a track meet as the Nuggets visit the Rockets on New Year's Eve. Denver ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games while Houston not surprisingly has impressed in that regard as well, sitting in seventh. Meanwhile, the Rockets are just 20th in defensive rating while the Nuggets have fallen off in that department as well, sitting 19th over the same time frame. We'll see a contrast in styles here with the Rockets always looking to push the pace, and currently ranking ninth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Nuggets sit 25th. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-19 | Illinois v. California UNDER 44 | 20-35 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Illinois and California at 4 pm et on Monday. This is a defensive struggle waiting to happen as the Illini face the Golden Bears on Monday afternoon. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, it's warranted in my opinion. These two teams are essentially mirror images of one another with Cal owning the stronger defense statistically. Offensively, both teams were inconsistent over the course of the regular season. While Cal closed things out on a high note, Illinois managed to score just 20 points combined in its final two regular season contests. I'm not convinced we'll see either team open things up on Monday afternoon, knowing that this is a 'first to 20 wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii UNDER 64.5 | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Hawaii at 8 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met a year ago they got into the 70's but I believe we're going to see a lower-scoring affair this time around and we're dealing with a lofty total approaching the mid-60's. BYU QB Zach Wilson appeared in eight games this season and threw more than two touchdowns on only one occasion - that coming against a horrible UMass defense. Meanwhile, Hawaii QB Cole MacDonald is a legend in his own right but had a bit of a tough time once the schedule toughened up this season, failing to throw for 300+ yards since way back on October 20th while throwing more than a single touchdown pass only once over his last six games. BYU is the better defensive team in this matchup but I do think Hawaii can hold its own in that regard here as well, noting that in the Rainbow Warriors most recent game - the MWC Championship - they didn't allow a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half against Boise State. BYU held all 12 opponents to 27 points or less this season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The last time we saw the Vikings on the primetime stage they were involved in a shootout with the Seahawks in Seattle. They also lit up the Chargers for a whopping 39 points in last week's blowout victory. Those two results serve to give us a slightly inflated total here in my opinion. Minnesota is highly unlikely to match last week's production in this late season division game. On the flip side, while the Vikings defense has been inconsistent, I do think they can hold a mediocre Packers offense at bay on Monday night. Since the start of November, Green Bay has scored more than 24 points in a game only once, and that performance came at the hands of an awful Giants defense. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida OVER 59.5 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Marshall and Central Florida at 2:30 pm et on Monday. Central Florida didn't receive quite as much hype this season than it has in previous years but it was an offensive juggernaut nonetheless, ranking fourth in the nation in total yardage per game and sixth in points scored per game. The Knights are going to get theirs offensively in this matchup. Marshall's good run of defensive play down the stretch had everything to do with a weak slate of opponents. With that being said, the Thundering Herd are a perennial Bowl team - or at least they have been over the last decade. More often than not they're able to generate plenty of offense, scoring 30+ points in three of their last four Bowl appearances. I don't expect them to roll over in this daunting matchup and that should set us up for a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Hornets v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Boston at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this total sets up on Sunday evening. The Hornets are coming off another high-scoring affair last night against the Jazz, due in large part to a track meet of a first half before things settled down later in the game. Note that the Hornets surprisingly check in ranked fifth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Celtics are top-10 in the league in that department over that same stretch, sitting in ninth. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks a miserable 29th in offensive rating over its last five games - despite that big scoring night on Saturday. Serving our purposes well, the Celtics are 25th in pace rating while the Hornets are dead last in the league in the same category over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We are dealing with a high total in this matchup - one of the highest on the Week 16 board in fact - but I believe it's warranted. The Seahawks may be an elite team but they by no means possess an elite defense. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray should be afforded plenty of time to move the football, both through the air and on the ground. Off last week's confidence-building performance against the Browns this is another positive spot for the Arizona offense as a whole. Meanwhile, the Seahawks enjoyed a bounce-back performance of their own last week in Carolina and should see continued success against a very beatable Cards defense Unless the Seahawks completely overlook the Cards, which I don't see happening, they should be able to score at will throughout this game on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans OVER 50 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. The common line of thinking here is that the Saints offense is in for a rough afternoon in Tennessee, playing on a short week off Monday's blowout win over the Colts. I actually believe we're going to see a shootout here. The Titans are missing both of their starting cornerbacks, which spells trouble as they try to contain all-world WR Michael Thomas, who is coming off another stellar performance. The Saints defense is dealing with some key injurys as well, most notably Rankins and Davenport up front. Of course, the Titans offense has come around since QB Ryan Tannehill took over the reins. He's in for a fine bounce-back performance against a Saints defense that wasn't really tested in their Monday night win over the hapless Colts. UPDATE: Titans RB Derrick Henry is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury. Still confident in the over as I believe the Saints banged up defense can be run on and Tannehill can find success in potential catch-up mode. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-19 | UAB v. Appalachian State UNDER 48 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Appalachian State at 9 pm et on Saturday. My first look is usually to the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl as we've seen plenty of shootouts on the fast track of the Superdome over the years. However, in this case, I believe we'll see a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. UAB topped out at 38 points this season, and generally struggled offensively with some lackluster talent at the skill positions on offense. Keep in mind, the Blazers benefited from facing the likes of Akron, Rice and UTEP during the regular season - arguably three of the weakest teams in the nation. Here, they'll be facing a stiff challenge in Appalachian State. The Mountaineers could be forgiven for not being all that interested in this Bowl game. After all their head coach has bolted, and they just played in this same Bowl game a year ago, winning in a walk. Just not sure we're going to see a great deal of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Bucks v. Knicks OVER 227 | 123-102 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the chances of this one developing into a track meet as the Bucks travel to Manhattan to face the Knicks. Of course, New York got its doors blown off in last night's rout at the hands of the Heat in Miami. Still, the Knicks check in tops in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Who sits right behind them? The Bucks of course. On the flip side, we've seen Milwaukee lag a bit defensively of late, dropping from a perennial top three spot in defensive rating to 14th over its last five contests. The Knicks are defensive doormats, ranking 28th in defensive rating over their last five games. I'm confident we'll see the Bucks push the pace in this one. They're fifth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Florida International v. Arkansas State UNDER 60.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida International and Arkansas State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. This one will be pegged as a shootout and while it may develop into just that, I'm not sure it will eclipse the lofty posted total. I actually think the two defenses in this matchup can make the opposing offenses rather one-dimensional. I have a lot of respect for the Arkansas State offense led by QB Layne Hatcher but while he's capable of bombing away, they're also going to need to move the football on the ground, which could be a tall task with RB Marcel Murray nursing a bad ankle. Meanwhile, the FIU offense has been inconsistent at best, coming up big for stretches but not able to really sustain anything for much of the campaign. Arkansas State actually faced some explosive offenses in the Sun Belt Conference this season and will be better for it in this matchup with the Panthers. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 210 | 114-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Charlotte at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. This is a relatively low posted total but it's warranted in my opinion. Charlotte checks in sporting the league's second worst (relatively speaking) pace rating over its last five games. At the same time, it ranks an impressive fifth in the NBA in defensive rating over that stretch. Utah doesn't figure to break through as it sits in the bottom half in offensive rating over its last five contests. Like the Hornets, the Jazz have also been playing better defensive ball of late, checking in top 10 in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs OVER 50 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Saturday. I probably don't need to tell you that this is a shootout waiting to happen on Saturday afternoon in Tampa. The Texans were expected to get involved in a shootout in Tennessee last Sunday but that matchup fizzled somewhat, with Houston ultimately securing a much-needed 24-21 win. Here, I don't think there's any chance of the offenses wilting as both groups are in tremendous position to light it up all afternoon long. Of course, Tampa Bay is missing its top two wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but that only serves to give us a lower total to work with here. QB Jameis Winston will continue to bomb away on his march toward the pass yardage title for 2019. Meanwhile, the Bucs ground game has the potential to also go off against a Texans run defense that is really struggling, giving up north of 4.6 yards per rush. Tampa Bay should be able to effectively limit the Texans ground game but I have full confidence in DeShaun Watson to do enough through the air (and with his legs) to help get this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kent State and Utah State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Utah State should absolutely have its way with the Kent State defense in this game. As I've said on numerous occasions this season, I really do believe the Golden Flashes have one of the worst defenses in the country. With Aggies QB Jordan Love and RB Gerold Bright cleared to play, they should absolutely shred an overmatched Kent State defense. The pointspread does say a lot in this particular matchup, however. I think Utah State is a relatively short favorite for a reason. Kent State seemed to get stronger and more consistent offensively as the season went on, and it should find plenty of success against a beatable Utah State defense that has allowed 30+ points in four of its last six games. This total is high but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs UNDER 219 | 105-118 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Spurs continue to play up-tempo but their offense is lagging at the moment as they check in a dismal 29th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. The Nets haven't been much better, sitting 25th in that department over the same stretch. On the flip side, the Brooklyn defense has been sneaky-good lately as it rates third in the NBA in defensive rating over its last five contests. That puts it in excellent position to contain the Spurs aggressive offense in this matchup. Note that San Antonio has also turned things around defensively, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. It should be able to handle a Brooklyn squad that is missing Kyrie Irving and ranks smack in the middle of the Association in pace rating over its last five games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Jazz v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We're getting a relatively low total to work with here (at least by Hawks standards) largely due to Atlanta's recent struggles offensively. However, the pace is still absolutely there as the Hawks check in fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games, and here they catch a favorable matchup against a Jazz squad that isn't playing at the same level of defensive intensity as it was earlier this season. Note that Utah currently sits in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. On the flip side, the Jazz's offense has come on lately, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch and they should certainly be able to keep it rolling against one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 231.5 | 107-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see a track meet between these two 'defense optional' opponents on Wednesday night. The T'Wolves check in dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over their last five games and it's not really all that close. The Pelicans aren't much better in that regard, sitting 25th in the league in that category over the same stretch. While New Orleans continues to lag offensively in the absence of Zion Williamson, the T'Wolves have been lighting it up, sitting top-five in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. Both teams check in top-11 in the NBA in pace rating over that same time frame. This is a high posted total but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Hornets v. Cavs UNDER 213.5 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well as a relatively low-scoring affair by today's NBA standards. The Hornets are playing the second of back-to-back nights after pulling away for a win over the Kings at home last night. Even with that 110-point effort they still sit just 23rd in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. I don't really consider them a good defensive team by any means but the numbers support it lately as they're top-eight in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. Neither of these teams have been pushing the pace, both checking in bottom-seven in the league in pace rating over their last five contests. The Cavs are 17th in offensive rating over that time frame but remain one of the league's weakest offensive squads overall. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets UNDER 208 | 102-110 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but I believe the number is warranted. Keep in mind, both the Kings and Hornets check in bottom-four in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's not to mention the fact that Charlotte sits 24th in offensive rating over that same stretch. The Kings come in playing well, winners of four of their last five, but the Hornets have held their own defensively of late, ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating over their last five contests and should keep Sacramento in check relatively speaking. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-19 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 228 | 111-110 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a track meet in the desert on Monday night. The Blazers are coming off three straight games against relatively slow-paced opponents that find themselves in the bottom-seven of the league in pace rating over their last five games. Here, they'll go up against a Suns squad that ranks second in pace rating over that same stretch. Note that while the Blazers sit a disappointing 26th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, they sit in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that time frame. Look for a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair between these two Western Conference foes. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Who would have thought we'd see a game between these two AFC South rivals feature a total north of 50? This is a series that generally features totals in the low-40s. Keep in mind, this will be the first of two matchups between the Texans and Titans in the next three weeks. Both defenses are shells of their former selves, largely due to a number of key injuries. Texans QB DeShaun Watson should have a field day against the Titans suddenly leaky, injury-plagued secondary, even if WR Will Fuller can't go. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill has earned a new lease on his football life in Tennessee and is set up nicely to tear apart a struggling Texans defense. Of course, RB Derrick Henry, who was plagued by a hamstring injury last week but still put up gawdy numbers, should be able to run wild against a Houston defense that has been particularly bad in recent weeks. It all sets up for a back and forth shootout in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | 122-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' on Saturday night as the Heat look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Lakers. Keep in mind, Miami has been playing an awful lot of basketball lately, with three of its last six games needing overtime to decide. Note that the Heat and the Mavs sit bottom nine in pace rating over their last five games, with Miami playing particularly slow, ranking 28th in the league. Both teams have been performing well offensively with Dallas actually leading the league in offensive rating over its last five contests but I'm not sure that it will draw the Heat into a real high-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 40.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Another year, another Army-Navy 'under'. We've been in on virtually all of the 'unders' during the current streak in this series and there's no reason to jump ship here. Yes, Navy put up some gawdy offensive numbers this season but that was largely schedule-based. Army showed flashes of brilliance at times, but really struggled when stepping up in class, as is the case here. These two teams couldn't be any more familiar with one another and that familiarity leads to low-scoring results every year. If anything things are getting tighter, with each of the last five meetings totaling 38 points or less and all five of those games being decided by a touchdown or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-19 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 210.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these offenses got loose last time out and I expect to see some progression from those performances here as the Warriors and Jazz do battle in Utah. Keep in mind, the last five meetings in this series have all eclipsed the total we're dealing with here. There's little reason to believe the Warriors will be able to do anything to slow down a Jazz offense that averages close to 110 points per game at home. While Utah has held its own defensively this season it is still allowing north of 105 ppg on its home floor. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everyone seems to be assuming the Jets aren't going to be able to score much at all in this game but I'm not sure that will be the case at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night. The Ravens are allowing just shy of five yards per rush this season which opens the door for Jets RB Le'Veon Bell, who should have the backfield all to himself with Bilal Powell expected to miss. Meanwhile, the Ravens should score at will in this mismatch. The Jets defense is undermanned and quite simply banged up, likely missing both Jamal Adams and Quinnen Williams for this one. That opens the door for another monster performance from QB Lamar Jackson. Also look for a re-introduction to WR Hollywood Brown on Thursday night as the Ravens run up the score on the Jets. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-19 | Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 234 | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Milwaukee at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see a track meet between these two teams on Wednesday night. The Pelicans are coming off a lower-scoring game than expected against the Pistons Monday. I don't think they have any hope of slowing down the high-octane Bucks offense here. As much as they don't want to trade baskets with Milwaukee, they're going to have to if they want to keep this one even remotely competitive. Note that the last three times these two teams have met they've combined to score at least 238 points. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an unappealing Monday night matchup between two downtrodden NFC East squads. With that being said, I do think we'll see some offensive fireworks in this one. The Giants will trot out QB Eli Manning for what could be his last ride. While Manning does present a great deal of upside, I do think he can do some damage working with a strong group of receivers, not to mention a returning TE Evan Engram. Keep in mind, the Eagles secondary is bottom of the barrel as far as I'm concerned. On the flip side, this is a smash spot for Eagles QB Carson Wentz coming off a much-needed breakout against the lowly Dolphins last Sunday. Wentz's wide receiver corps is getting healthier and he has a two-headed monster to work with at TE in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Throw in dynamic rookie RB Miles Sanders and I'm confident we'll see the Philadelphia offense move the football and score at will against a weak Giants defense that doesn't generate any sort of pass rush. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-19 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Monday. This is a track meet waiting to happen as the Pistons travel to face the Pelicans on Monday night. Detroit checks in sporting the league's third best offensive rating over its last five games. That spells trouble for a New Orleans squad that sits 27th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. A positive for the Pelicans, however, is the fact that they continue to push the tempo, ranking top eight in pace rating over their last five contests. The Pistons are virtually in the middle of the pack in defensive rating over that stretch, sitting 16th in the Association. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 46 | 37-15 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a relatively low total but I believe it's warranted. Oregon hasn't been the offensive juggernaut we've been accustomed to seeing in previous years this season, even with top NFL QB prospect Justin Herbert at the helm of the offense. On the flip side, the Ducks defense has held its own - this isn't a team that got involved in a ton of track meets this season. Utah meanwhile closed out the regular season with some strong performances offensively, but the story is its elite defense, which I believe can handle this matchup with the Ducks. The Utes come in having allowed a grand total of 25 points over their last three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Coyotes v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes are riding high following another win last night in Philadelphia and I look for them to find continued offensive success against a Pens squad that is fresh off a low-scoring victory over the Blues on Wednesday. There's no reason to jump ship from the Pittsburgh 'over' train because of one result. The Pens didn't need to be great offensively against St. Louis as they played an air tight defensive game. Here, I believe they'll have their hands full with the upstart 'Yotes and that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair - even as we deal with a lower posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching a thrilling, high-scoring affair on Monday Night Football, look for completely the opposite on Thursday as the Cowboys and Bears do battle at Soldier Field. The Bears defense has sagged lately but I'm not convinced Dallas' disjointed offense can take full advantage. RB Ezekiel Elliott will get his but Dak Prescott may struggle in hostile territory on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky played fairly well on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit but figures to regress once again versus an aggressive Cowboys defense here. The Bears have become completely one-dimensional on offense and that doesn't serve them well against a better than advertised Dallas secondary coming off a poor showing against the Bills last week. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No surprise at all that we're dealing with a sky-high total between the high-flying, defense optional Rockets and the defending champion Raptors on Thursday night. I simply feel that we'll see the Raptors do a pretty good job of locking down the Houston offense, while I'm not certain that Toronto has the offensive ability to really expose the Rockets defensive inefficiencies, at least not given its current form. The Raps are coming off an extremely rare home loss against the Heat on Tuesday so you can be sure they'll be jacked up for this one. Expect a tighter affair than the total would seem to indicate. Take the under (10*). |
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12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz OVER 209 | 121-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game involving the Lakers last night as they came up with a big 105-96 road win in Denver. Here, I look for the offense to flow a little more freely as Los Angeles continues its road trip in Utah. The Jazz have been involved in their fair share of high-scoring games lately with the 'over' going 5-2 over their last seven contests. They should be in a foul mood coming off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and 76ers on the road and catch a favorable spot with the Lakers playing on no rest in altitude no less. The Lakers are shooting just shy of 49% from the field on the road this season and should find continued success at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-19 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 229.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're in for a track meet in Dallas on Wednesday night as the Mavs return home on no rest to host the T'Wolves. Dallas barely broke a sweat in rolling to a 118-97 win over the Pelicans last night but should face a stiffer challenge here. Minnesota comes in highly-motivated following a 115-107 home loss to the lowly Grizzlies. Keep in mind, the T'Wolves have actually been a better team on the road this season, where they've gone 7-2 straight-up. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-19 | Blues v. Penguins OVER 6 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Pittsburgh at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers really can't set the totals high enough in games involving the Penguins right now. After giving up 10 goals in consecutive road losses, including a 5-2 setback against these same Blues, I expect a positive response from the Pens on Wednesday. However, I have little confidence that they can keep the puck out of their own net against a Blues squad that has potted 16 goals over the course of their current four-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's little reason to have much faith in either of these offenses even though the 'over' has cashed in each of Western Michigan's last two games and six straight contests involving Northern Illinois. Keep in mind, Broncos QB Jon Wassink had thrown for under 200 yards in four straight games prior to last week's 322-yard, three-touchdown outburst against Ohio. On Senior Night, I do expect to see the Northern Illinois defense show up as the Huskies wrap up what has been a highly-disappointing campaign. NIU QB Marcus Childers has been ineffective since taking over for Ryan Bowers, who continues to recover from a concussion. Childers has thrown for more than 100 yards just once this season. While he is gaining 6.5 yards per rush, that's largely due to a relatively small sample size. In the last two seasons he averaged 3.3 and 2.7 yards per rush. Both offenses are capable of moving the football on the ground with terrific lead backs. That should only serve to keep the clock moving in this one, however, as Western Michigan looks to pick up a win and move on to postseason play. Take the under (10*). |