Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 227.5 | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-23 | Arizona State v. Nevada OVER 133.5 | Top | 98-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*). |
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03-14-23 | Nets v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | Top | 107-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met the Thunder secured a 112-102 road win back on January 15th. Keep in mind, the Nets were a much different team then with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Kevin Durant still on the shelf pre-trade. Brooklyn has certainly been re-energized since dealing away Kyrie and K.D. The Nets check into this contest on the heels of five straight ATS victories including consecutive 'over' results. While they got off only 84 field goal attempts against a good Nuggets defense on Sunday, they still managed to knock down 40+ field goals for the fourth straight game. It's worth noting that they haven't been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in consecutive games since late February. As much as head coach Jacque Vaughn would like his team to play tougher defense, I'm not sure they have the personnel in place to do so. Note that Brooklyn has allowed 44, 48 and 45 made field goals over its last three games (one of those games was aided by overtime) with all three of those opponents hoisting up 90+ FG attempts. The Thunder didn't have their best shooting performance on Sunday in San Antonio but still had enough to get by the lowly Spurs. The good news for our purposes was that the Thunder did continue to push the pace, getting off 95 FG attempts in the victory. They've hoisted up at least 87 FG attempts in seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13 contests. While we did see Oklahoma City hold its last two opponents to 34 and 33 made field goals, that was against the Pelicans and Spurs, respectively. It will be taking a step up in class against the fifth-in-the-East Nets on Tuesday. While the scoring wasn't necessarily there in that most recent matchup between these two teams, we did see each side get off 90 or more FG attempts. I think the pace will be there again on Tuesday and with both teams coming off an off day, their shooting legs should be firmly beneath them as well. Take the over (10*). |
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03-13-23 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 237.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a high-scoring 128-119 decision at home against the Kings on Saturday but still check in having held an incredible 10 straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've been red hot (no pun intended) shooting the ball themselves but will be in tough with Kevin Durant sidelined (given all the key pieces they dealt away to acquire him). The Warriors continue to scuff their heels offensively, shooting worse than 44% as a team in three of their last four games. Their most recent contest did end up touching the total, but only thanks to overtime against Milwaukee on Saturday. Here, we'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting, noting that the 'over' has cashed in all three meetings in this series this season but we haven't seen four straight matchups go 'over' the total since way back in 2008-09. The 'under' checks in 34-18 with Phoenix coming off a loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 218.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have gotten back to a slower pace yet do check in having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. Last time out, that had everything to do with the visiting Blazers quite simply shooting the lights out (they actually got off only 80 field goal attempts). Philadelphia has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight games. The Sixers have also limited the opposition to 86 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The Wizards have gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six games. The only time they surpassed that number they lost 117-111 to the Bucks - with that game still failing to surpass the total we're working with tonight. Off consecutive losses, I do think we see the Wiz play some defense here, noting that they've allowed more than 117 points just once in their last 11 contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-11-23 | Cornell v. Yale OVER 149 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday. These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 137.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Tulsa v. Wichita State OVER 139 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 133 | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday. Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-23 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse OVER 153 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday. This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
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03-07-23 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 232.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results - in fact, the Jazz have seen their last two games go 'over' the total while the Mavericks have posted three consecutive 'overs'. I expect those streaks to end here. After another tough loss - this one coming at the hands of the Suns on Sunday - the Mavs know they can't keep playing the way they have been, and by that I mean getting involved in repeated track meets. It's not the pace they're comfortable playing at and it just doesn't give them the best chance to win on most nights, despite the wealth of offensive talent they possess. Here, I think Dallas catches a bit of a break as Utah hasn't been on point offensively, topping out at 43 made field goals in seven straight games (it reached that number three times over that stretch). You have to figure the Jazz will be looking to tighten things up defensively here as well after allowing 130 and 129 points in consecutive losses in Oklahoma City. While the most recent meeting between these two teams in early February did snap a five-game 'under' streak in this series, it only got there thanks to 50 made free throws (the two teams average a combined 39 made free throws per game this season). Only once in the last 11 meetings have we seen either team knock down more than 41 field goals and that came in a contest that totalled only 203 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-23 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 147.5 | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-23 | Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 143.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-23 | Massachusetts v. Duquesne OVER 148.5 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 235.5 | Top | 105-123 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Warriors most recent game on Sunday as they defeated the T'Wolves by a 109-104 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, noting that the pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in that Sunday contest, and I'm confident Portland will do its part to help this total along. The Warriors have run into a bit of a shooting funk over their last few games but figure to get on track here, noting that Portland has allowed 45 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight games with the opposition knocking down at least 40 field goals in an incredible 22 straight contests. Golden State has seen each of its last two foes - the T'Wolves and Rockets - get off 90 or more field goal attempts, but fail to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, making good on just 38 and 36, respectively. Portland doesn't figure to have such trouble, noting that the Blazers have knocked down 42 or more field goals in five of their last six games, despite getting off 86 or fewer FG attempts in four of those contests. In fact, Portland has connected on 40 or more field goals in 12 of its last 14 games overall. Largely due to the Warriors recent low-scoring results (along with the fact that the likes of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain sidelined) we're not seeing much of an adjustment to this total since the last time these two teams met on February 8th. That's notable when you consider that game reached a whopping 247 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Florida v. Georgia OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 138.5 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*). |
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02-25-23 | Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 152.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 232.5 | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-23 | Fairfield v. Niagara OVER 124.5 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday. We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Washington State v. Stanford UNDER 135 | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*). |
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02-20-23 | Hawaii v. CS Bakersfield OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday. Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | Rider v. Quinnipiac OVER 140 | Top | 88-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-18-23 | Baylor v. Kansas OVER 148.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 130.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 156.5 | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. This total is about as high as you would expect in this matchup, noting that we saw a closing total of 154 in a game that totalled only 142 points in the most recent meeting between the two teams last season. While North Carolina is always going to be known for its offense, it can play some defense as well. The Tar Heels have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals while also limiting six of their last nine foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. North Carolina checks in ranked a respectable 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes are admittedly red hot offensively right now, having made good on more than 30 field goals in three of their last four games. However, their margin for error hasn't been all that large as they've gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in four of their last six games and 60 or less in eight of their last 10 contests overall. Miami hasn't played its best defensive basketball lately, yielding 28 or more made field goals in three of its last four games with Saturday's poor performance at that end of the floor against Louisville perhaps serving as a low-water mark (it allowed the Cardinals to knock down 33-of-57 field goal attempts). The Canes have managed to limit their opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, however, allowing just 51, 59, 54 and 57 FG attempts over their last four games. That type of discipline defensively would undoubtedly serve them well in an underdog role against the Tar Heels here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-23 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 137 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Colorado in its most recent game as it shot the lights out in the second half in an eventual blowout win over Stanford last Sunday. The Buffaloes aren't exactly known for their offense, noting they rank 141st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Prior to last Sunday's breakout performance, Colorado had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of its previous eight games. The going won't be easy on the road against a Utah squad that ranks a respectable 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Speaking of that metric, Colorado checks in 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes have limited six straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts with only three of those opponents getting north of 50. Utah, like Colorado, has been inconsistent offensively. It could only connect on 21-of-57 field goal attempts against a bad California defense last time out. The Utes have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games with 25 being their high-water mark over that stretch. Both meetings between these two teams last season were surprisingly high-scoring, getting into the 150's despite closing totals in the high-130's. I believe those results are helping play a factor in keeping this total a little higher than it should be on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 241.5 | Top | 138-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. While the number may look sizable at first glance, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against both the Thunder and Blazers lately. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 45 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Portland has seen three straight opponents knock down at least 46 field goals. The good news is, both offenses are humming as well. The Thunder have put up 120 points or more in four of their last seven games and have made good on 56, 44 and 49 field goals over their last three games. They're pushing the pace at every opportunity as well, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. It's a similar story for the Blazers. Apart from a brief lull against the Bucks earlier this week, they've knocked down 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While dealing away Josh Hart leaves a bit of a void offensively, that should only mean more shot attempts for the red hot Damian Lillard. You certainly don't get better defensively after dealing away a guy like Hart. You only have to go back two meetings in this series to see the last time Oklahoma City and Portland combined to put up more than 240 total points and four matchups to find the last time they got into the 260's. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Marist v. St. Peter's UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams saw just 118 points scored in a narrow St. Peter's road victory. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around than we saw in that mid-January matchup and it has a lot to do with the fact that both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. I expect those 'over' streaks to come to a halt on Friday. Marist has been pushing the pace a little more than we've been accustomed to seeing lately but that's been largely game-script dependent as it has often been playing from behind by considerable margins. Note that the Red Foxes check in ranked 336th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 278th in adjusted tempo despite only facing the 341st toughest slate of opponents this season (all according to KenPom). Things won't get any easier here noting that St. Peter's has been effective in severely limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 50 field goal attempts in an incredible seven straight games entering Friday's contest. Last time out, the Peacocks simply ran into a hot shooting Rider squad in an 81-62 loss. Prior to allowing the Broncs to knock down 26 field goals in that game, they had held six consecutive foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. It's been another story offensively as St. Peter's continues to struggle. It has topped out at 23 made field goals over its last six games and that came in a contest where it shot better than 52% from the field. The Peacocks rank a miserable 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo. Going back to that first meeting between these two teams this season, it reached only 118 total points despite the two teams combining to shoot 51 free throws (making 38). Note that on the season, these two squads average just 21-of-30 combined from the charity stripe. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State OVER 145 | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State at 11 pm et on Thursday. Santa Barbara plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation yet checks into this game on the heels of four straight 'over' results, including a stunning loss as a double-digit road favorite at Cal State-Fullerton last time out. It's an interesting contrast when it comes to the Gauchos as they play slow but are ultra-efficient offensively. Here, I expect them to get plenty of good looks against a Long Beach State squad that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the country, only ranking behind Alabama in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The 49ers enter this game off six straight wins, fortunate that a number of their recent opponents haven't been able to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities. Long Beach State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Last time out, it yielded a whopping 70 FG attempts against Cal-Irvine in a game that reached 181 total points. As I mentioned, the 49ers like to play fast offensively, hoisting up more than 70 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games overall. Cal-Santa Barbara has faced a slew of weaker Big West squads lately, favored by double-digits in four of its last five games. While the Gauchos are a top-100 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom), that has had something to do with the fact they've only faced the 305th most difficult schedule in the country. It's interesting to note that Santa Barbara has been held under 70 points in each of their last three games, matching their longest such streak of the season. A date with Long Beach State should provide ample opportunity to bounce back in what projects as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-23 | Florida v. Alabama OVER 147.5 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Alabama at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Despite playing at the fasted tempo in the country this season (according to KenPom), Alabama has posted just two 'over' results in its last 10 games. Each of the Crimson Tide's last two contests have stayed 'under' the total. That's helped set us up with a very reasonable total on Wednesday as the Tide host the Florida Gators. Florida checks in off a 72-67 loss at Kentucky on Saturday. Both of these teams tend to give up a ton of scoring opportunities with Florida having allowed at least 60 field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Alabama has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts to its opponents in 16 of its last 18 contests. While both squads rate out well in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (again according to KenPom), I believe the door is open for both offenses to go off on Wednesday. Florida has been held under 70 points in three straight games entering this contest - its longest such streak of the season. It did show some signs of life offensively last time out, knocking down 23 field goals in a tough spot at Kentucky. After facing a pair of down-trodden squads in Vandy and LSU over its last two games, I believe Alabama could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here, noting that prior to holding those two foes under 20 made field goals, the Crimson Tide had allowed seven of their previous eight opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Offensively, Alabama is elite. The Crimson Tide continue to 'fill it up', making good on at least 25 field goals in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games overall. The Gators were locked-in defensively earlier in the campaign but have since sagged in that regard, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down at least 22 field goals - a number Alabama is sure to eclipse with ease here. The pace will be there, whether this total proves high enough will depend on whether the two teams can make the most of their scoring opportunities. I'm confident they will, noting that last year's lone meeting reached 153 total points despite both teams shooting worse than 43% from the field. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-23 | Spurs v. Raptors OVER 234 | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. This one has the potential to get ugly fast for the Spurs. However, rather than lay the points with the Raptors, we'll play the 'over' in this spot as I am confident San Antonio can punch back for stretches in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team we've seen in the NBA in quite some time. They enter this game in their absolute worst form of the season having allowed six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals with five of those foes hitting 50 or more, including their most recent opponent, the Chicago Bulls. On the road this season, they're allowing a ridiculous average of 47 made field goals per game, leading to just north of 125 points per contest. The Raptors enter this game playing fast. They've hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of their last eight games. They've made good on 40 or more field goals in 11 straight contests. On the flip side, the Raptors have been doing a good job of slowing their opponents down. I'm just not sure they'll need to given the wealth of scoring opportunities they're likely to have at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Note that Toronto did hold an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals for the first time in six games on Sunday in Memphis. Of course, that was with the Grizzlies missing a number of key contributors including Ja Morant, not to mention the fact that Memphis got off just 78 field goal attempts in the game (they knocked down 38 of them). Should the pace tick up at all in this one, as I suspect it will, the potential is there for the Spurs to go off offensively. Despite San Antonio's lack of success from a win-loss perspective, it does enter this game having made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight contests and 27 of their last 30 games overall. Note that both of these teams are coming off an off day (two in the case of Toronto) and will also have the day off on Thursday. No reason for either to hold anything back in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh OVER 138.5 | Top | 57-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams fizzled this season as Pittsburgh rolled to a 75-54 road win on January 18th. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Louisville has shown some signs of life offensively of late, knocking down 25 or more field goals in three of its last four games. The Cardinals had their share of opportunities in that first meeting with Pitt but simply couldn't convert, making good on just 19 field goals. It's not as if Pitt is a defensive juggernaut. The Panthers have allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate last time out that North Carolina had an off night shooting, as the Tar Heels actually got off a whopping 66 field goal attempts, but could only hit 23 of them. Here, I'm just not convinced we see a peak performance from the Pitt defense against an opponent it has already manhandled this season. On the flip side, the Panthers figure to take advantage of an awful Louisville defense that has seemingly gotten even looser lately, allowing three straight opponents to get off more than 60 FG attempts. Pitt enters this contest having made good on 28, 26 and 25 field goals over its last three games and has hoisted up 55 or more FG attempts in seven of its last eight overall. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-23 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 142 | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 148 points back in December. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around as a result, but I believe it's warranted. Green Bay enters this contest off four straight 'under' results. The Phoenix have shot poorly over that stretch - in fact, they've been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four straight games, their longest such streak of the season. I do think the pace alone should get them over the hump here, however, noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee ranks 17th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Panthers have allowed 16 consecutive opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Their last game snapped a stretch of nine straight contests in which they allowed 62 or more field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the pitiful Phoenix made good on 23 field goals and scored 67 points in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers were fortunate to secure a 72-69 win over IUPUI last time out. They got off a whopping 69 FG attempts in that contest but could only hit 26 of them. I certainly anticipate them improving on that shooting percentage here, noting that Green Bay ranks a miserable 361st in the nation (that's third-to-last) in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 238.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. PLEASE NOTE: I released this play in the early morning hours when the total was in the high-230's. With the news of Jokic, Murray and Gordon possibly all sitting for the Nuggets, it has dropped considerably. I do still recommend the play at the current number, albeit with a lower confidence level. We just missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets rout of the Hawks last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Denver hits the road for a back-to-back spot at Minnesota on Sunday. Last night's game ended a streak of 11 straight games in which the Nuggets held opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The lopsided nature of that affair against Atlanta certainly contributed to Denver's relatively loose defensive play. 'Fat and happy' off three straight wins, scoring 122 or more points in all three contests, I'm not convinced we'll see a peak offensive performance from Denver again on Sunday. Minnesota will certainly be focused on tightening things up defensively after allowing Orlando to go off for 127 points in an 'upset' home loss on Friday. Prior to that contest, the Timberwolves had seen seven straight games stay 'under' the total and the 'under' remains 18-13 in their home games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-23 | Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 108-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Hawks are in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in the last four nights (in three different cities) as they continue their road trip in the high altitude of Denver on Saturday. Atlanta has been shooting the lights out, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five straight games. It also got off more than 90 field goal attempts in four of those five contests, however, a number I believe it will have a tough time approaching here. The Nuggets check in having held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They certainly haven't been at their best defensively during their current 3-0 'over' streak, allowing 46, 42 and 43 made field goals but again, I like the spot they catch the Hawks in here. While Atlanta is known for being extremely vulnerable defensively, the addition of Dejounte Murray has certainly helped its cause in that regard this season. The Hawks enter this contest having held eight of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. In the back half of their last six back-to-back situations, they've limited their foes to 89, 87, 83, 83, 86 and 83 FG attempts with the 'under' going 4-2 along the way (only one of those games went 'over' the total we're working with tonight). In the first meeting between these two teams this season both sides actually shot exceptionally well (Denver was 45-of-85 and Atlanta was 49-of-88) yet that game still totalled 'only' 226 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-23 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame OVER 148.5 | Top | 81-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Notre Dame at 1 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest has incredibly seen each of its last 12 games go 'over' the total and I expect that streak to last for at least one more game as the Demon Deacons head to South Bend to face the Irish on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame has actually posted six consecutive 'over' results itself. The Irish check in ranked a miserable 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Facing a Wake Forest squad that ranks 27th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 93rd in adjusted tempo, not to mention the fact it is coming off four straight losses, doesn't figure to help Notre Dame's cause here. The Irish don't play at a particularly fast pace, but I expect their hand to be forced on Saturday, likely playing from behind for a considerable portion of this contest as a home underdog. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time Notre Dame limited an opponent to fewer than 25 made field goals. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last five contests. It simply didn't make the most of its scoring opportunities last time out against Duke, shooting a miserable 24-of-64 from the field (but still scoring 73 points). I expect it to snap right back here. The Irish have put up more than 70 points in four straight home games though and could be catching the Demon Deacons defense at the right time. In fact, Wake has been a completely different defensive team compared to the first month of the season, yielding 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 14 games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-23 | Cornell v. Princeton OVER 157 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Princeton at 7 pm et on Friday. I've been waiting for this rematch since Cornell and Princeton combined to score 'only' 143 points in the first meeting of the season back on January 7th. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season last year with the 'over' in a game between the Big Red and Tigers with that contest totalling 171 points almost a year to the day, on February 4th, 2022. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that the first meeting this season was played in Cornell's home gym. That's notable as Princeton plays considerably faster here at home, where it averages two more field goal attempts per game compared to its season average while also giving up three additional FG attempts per contest (also compared to its season average). Cornell figures to take advantage as it is quietly on an incredible shooting run, having knocked down 31, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three contests. Unfortunately, the Big Red have also been very forgiving defensively, yielding 30, 28, 32 and 27 made field goals over their last four games. Princeton got off 62 field goal attempts last time out against Harvard, but could only knock down 26 of them. I certainly expect it to bounce back in that regard here. Like Cornell, Princeton has struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 24, 28, 21, 34 and 35 made field goals over its last five contests. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 232.5 | Top | 117-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. There's little chance we see the likes of Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins in this game and that leads to the total sitting in a very reasonable range. Remember, the last time the Warriors rested their stars, they still scored 120 points in an upset win over a good Cavs team in Cleveland earlier this month. There's a good chance we see the Nuggets offense absolutely go off in this one. Denver is in fine form offensively after knocking down 44 and 43 field goals over its last two games, scoring 119 and 122 points in the process. Keep in mind, those were relatively slow-paced affairs. Here, the Nuggets will face a Warriors squad that has allowed 101, 93 and 95 field goal attempts in regulation time over their last three games. Incredibly, nine straight Golden State opponents have knocked down at least 42 field goals in regulation time. You would have to go back 16 games, all the way to December 28th, to find the last time the Warriors held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. As I mentioned, Golden State is likely to give a number of its key contributors the night off, probably not the worst thing after Thompson and Curry combined to shoot 11-for-34 in last night's overtime loss in Minnesota (we won with the Timberwolves in that game). That game did manage to stay 'under' the total, which is notable as the Warriors haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 25th to 30th. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-23 | Texas Tech v. LSU OVER 132 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and LSU at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll go the contrarian route with this play as LSU checks in off a deplorable 14-made field goal performance in a 60-40 loss to Arkansas last time out while Texas Tech reaches Baton Rouge off consecutive 'under' results. I wouldn't categorize either of these defenses as elite, or anything remotely close. Yet the Red Raiders have held their last two opponents to just 20 and 19 made field goals. Keep in mind, they still lost both of those games by double-digits, allowing 68 and 76 points against Kansas State and West Virginia, respectively. After facing a very difficult slate of opponents in SEC play, the Tigers will likely be happy to face a Big 12 opponent in Texas Tech on Saturday. While LSU's offense has been a big part of the problem lately, it has also allowed its last four opponents to knock down 35, 26, 29 and 23 field goals. The pace has been there but Texas Tech just hasn't been able to make its shots lately, noting that it is just one game removed from hoisting up a whopping 71 field goal attempts against Kansas State. Here, I do expect the Red Raiders to put it together offensively and help this one sail 'over' the reasonably low total. Finally, I'll note that these two teams produced 147 total points (with a closing total of 143.5) the last time they met in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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01-25-23 | Louisville v. Boston College OVER 133.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Wednesday night in Chestnut Hill. Louisville is of course mired in a down season having lost 17 of 19 games overall and eight in a row entering Wednesday's contest. We had actually seen a bit of a spark from the Cardinals offensively for a stretch prior to getting held down by a pair of tough opponents in North Carolina and Pittsburgh in their last two games. I'm confident we'll see them do enough to help this total along on Wednesday, however, noting that Boston College has allowed five of its last eight opponents to get off 60 or more field goal attempts with the opposition knocking down 26 or more field goals in three of its last four contests. Offensively, the Eagles have been quietly 'filling it up', making good on 28, 26, 32, 21, 26 and 29 field goals over their last six games. Even in the low-water mark of 21 over that stretch, the Eagles still scored 63 points in a game that totalled 148 points against Wake Forest. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a low-scoring one, reaching only 121 total points. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total this time around, however, noting that last year's game saw a closing total of 138. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Wizards v. Mavs OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Mavericks offensively after they were held down by the Clippers last time out. In fact, Dallas is coming off consecutive low-scoring, slow-paced games against Miami and Los Angeles. I expect nothing of the sort here as the Mavs host the Wizards on Tuesday. Yes, Washington will be without Kristaps Porzingis and just dealt Rui Hachimura to the Lakers after he poured in 30 points last time out. I still anticipate the Wizards pushing the pace here, noting they've knocked down 42, 42 and 51 field goals over their last three games and have hoisted up 93 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Washington has had no success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, allowing nine of its last 10 opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time the Wiz held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. While Dallas held up well defensively in its last two games, it is still sorely missing the presence of Christian Wood on the inside and the blowout nature of those last two contests likely contributed to keeping the pace down. Note that prior to those two contests, the Mavs had allowed 44, 49, 43 and 49 made field goals over their last four games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-11 with the Wizards coming off two wins in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 with Dallas coming off a loss this season, leading to an average total of 231.0 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams enjoyed far different results on Saturday as Kansas was embarrassed in a 23-point home loss against TCU while Baylor eked out a 62-60 road win over Oklahoma. Noting that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with Kansas coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 75 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 132.3 points, we'll confidently back the 'under' in a series that has generally been lower-scoring than most have expected over the years. Baylor got off to an 0-3 start in conference play, marked by a couple of high-scoring defeats at the hands of TCU and Kansas State, at home no less. Since then, we've seen the Bears lock in defensively, allowing 23, 23, 27 and 26 made field goals and no more than 60 field goal attempts over their last four games. For Kansas, it is in a clear bounce-back spot here after getting lit up for 31 made field goals against TCU on Saturday. Poor defensive efforts don't pop up often when it comes to the Bill Self-coached Jayhawks and I'm confident we'll see them respond positively in that department on Monday. Prior to Saturday's game, Kansas had held an incredible 15 of its first 18 opponents this season to 25 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-19-23 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 135 | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona State at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in each of UCLA's last seven games but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday as the Bruins hit the road for the first time since New Year's Day to face Arizona State in Tempe. UCLA absolutely manhandled Utah and Colorado in its last two games, holding those two opponents to just 18 and 15 made field goals, respectively. It faces a much different challenge on the road here, however, noting that Arizona State has knocked down 25, 31, 29, 33 and 24 field goals since the return of Pac-12 play on New Year's Eve. With that being said, the Sun Devils are in bounce-back mode here in some sense after getting off only 49 field goal attempts in a bit of a sloppy affair against Oregon State last time out (they still scored 74 points in that contest). We know Arizona State will be looking to push the pace here, noting that it has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games. Defensively, the Sun Devils are likely to have their hands full here. They've allowed 27, 24, 25, and 24 made field goals over their last four games and have had little success (or interest) in slowing down their opponents' tempo this season. UCLA didn't shoot particularly well against Colorado last time out, knocking down only 38.1% of its attempts from the field. That's notable as the last two times it was held under 40% shooting in Pac-12 play, it responded by making good on exactly 29 field goals in its next contest. The Bruins are averaging 30 made field goals and 76.7 points per game this season with no considerable drop-off in production away from home, where they've hit 29 field goals per game (on one fewer attempt compared to their season average) while averaging 73.7 points per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 118 points last February, however prior to that each of the last 12 matchups in the series produced at least 143 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-18-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This is obviously a big game for both teams but it's desperation time for Oklahoma State as it comes off three consecutive Big 12 defeats. Of note for our purposes, the Cowboys have seen each of their last seven games go 'under' the total. Oklahoma State lacks a true go-to scorer and it shows as it has been held to 67, 67, 46, 57 and 58 points in Big 12 play. The Cowboys tried to push the pace in their last two games, getting off 66 and 60 field goal attempts but only managed to knock down 22 and 23 of those shots against Kansas State and Baylor, respectively. Here, they'll face a good Oklahoma defense that's coming off a bad game. The Sooners allowed West Virginia to make good on 31-of-55 field goals in their most recent contest, allowing 76 points in a narrow one-point victory. Note that prior to that, they had held four of their last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma has one of the more underrated offensive players in the country in former Nevada standout Grant Sherfield. It will be in tough here, however, noting that Oklahoma State has allowed an average of just 20 made field goals per contest at home this season and has held eight of its last 11 opponents to 21 or fewer in that department. The fact that the Cowboys allowed 74 points last time out is notable as they've given up 56, 51 and 49 points on three previous occasions after allowing more than 70 points in a game this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222 | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. While both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Monday, it's still been a bit of a grind offensively of late. Monday's game marked the first time in three contests the Wizards managed to knock down more than 38 field goals. Playing against the Warriors - a team that often plays at a break-neck pace - certainly helped their cause. All told, Washington has topped out at 42 field goals or less in six straight games, yet the 'over' has inexplicably gone 5-1 over that stretch. I do expect things to level out in that regard, at least in the short-term. The Knicks have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six consecutive games as well, and only got to that number thanks to overtime last time out against Toronto. New York has quietly been locked-in defensively, limiting seven of its last nine opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It held this same Washington squad to 36-of-92 shooting just last week. While last week's matchup did find its way 'over' the total, it didn't eclipse the number we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing). It's worth noting that we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since back in 2018 - that goes back a whopping 17 matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 147 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Clemson and Wake Forest at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two red hot ACC squads in Clemson and Wake Forest on Tuesday night. The Tigers are fresh off a 72-64 victory over Duke on Saturday - their seventh straight victory. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. While they've done a good job defensively as well, they've shown little ability (or interest) in slowing down their opponents' pace, allowing 63 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five games. That should open the door for a blazing hot Wake Forest offense that has made good on 28, 29, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Demon Deacons were held to fewer than 77 points. Like Clemson, Wake hasn't put much of a priority on slowing the opposition, yielding an average of 61 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Prior to Saturday's blowout win over struggling Boston College (in which it allowed just 22 made field goals), Wake had allowed eight straight opponents to knock down 26 or more field goals. Of course, this will be a rematch of a meeting between these two teams back in December. That was a strange affair as Clemson got off only 43 field goal attempts, making good on 22 of them, yet scored 77 points in a 20-point rout. Wake has rounded into form since then and I'm confident we'll see a much more competitive, entertaining affair this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Nets v. Spurs UNDER 235 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This Nets team is just not the same without Kevin Durant on the floor. I realize that's a major understatement and fairly obvious to even the most casual NBA observer. But it's worth noting as we work with a total in the mid-230's with the Nets having just come off a winless two-game homestand that saw them struggle mightily from an offensive standpoint, knocking down just 38 and 39 field goals while scoring 98 and 102 points. The Spurs are of course one of, not the league's worst defensive team. With that being said, I do think they're better than they've shown in their last three games, allowing 135, 144 and 132 points against three teams that love to push the pace in the Grizzlies, Warriors and Kings over that stretch. While the Nets offense has regressed without Durant, their defense has held strong, limiting four straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals heading into this contest. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in each of their last five games. When these teams last met in Brooklyn on January 2nd, it was no contest as the Nets rolled to a 139-103 victory. Keep in mind, Kevin Durant paced Brooklyn's offense on that night, recording a double-double with 25 points and 11 assists. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 130-106 with the Spurs playing at home off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Gregg Popovich. Interestingly, the 'under' is 26-12 with Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn's teams playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS as well. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-23 | Bradley v. Drake OVER 128.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bradley and Drake at 8 pm et on Saturday. This isn't the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament and as such I think we'll see a much looser, up-tempo game between these two conference powerhouses than what you would expect to see in March. We're talking about two of the best offensive teams in the MVC on paper. Bradley has certainly showed it over its last two games, scoring 88 and 91 points in wins over Valpo and Evansville. While the level of competition steps up here, I like the consistency Bradley has shown at the offensive end of the floor, making good on 27 or more field goals in six of its last seven games. Drake comes off of a pair of exceptional offensive performances as well, scoring 82 and 76 points in wins over Murray State and Illinois-Chicago. The most recent meeting between these two teams last February was a low-scoring affair but of note, we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2018-19. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-23 | Wisconsin v. Indiana OVER 135.5 | Top | 45-63 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Indiana at 1 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Wisconsin's last two games while Indiana has seen all three of its Big Ten contests sail 'over' the total, allowing 91, 84 and 85 points in the process. While the Badgers aren't exactly known for their offensive prowess, I do think they find the going much easier against the Hoosiers non-existent defense after facing Illinois and Michigan State in their last two games. On the flip side, it's desperation time for Indiana and at home in what is a stand-alone Big Ten matchup on Saturday afternoon, I do think we see it come to play. The Hoosiers offense hasn't necessarily been the problem, even if it is coming off a poor showing against Penn State last time out. Prior to that, Indiana had put up 89 and 83 points against Iowa and Northwestern, respectively. I think we see both teams approach or eclipse the 70-point mark in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-23 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 116-147 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams were just involved in a relatively high-scoring affair two nights ago as the 76ers rolled to a 123-111 win in Detroit. That's been the norm for the Sixers lately as they enter this game riding a four-game 'over' streak (which matches a season-high). With both teams playing their fifth game in five nights, I believe both would prefer a slower-paced affair in Tuesday's rematch. The Pistons quietly shot the lights out in Sunday's contest, knocking down 44-of-87 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate a repeat performance with the scene shifting to Philadelphia, noting the 76ers are allowing just 40 made field goals per game on average at home this season. In a similar vein, the Pistons are making good on just 39 field goals per contest on the road this season. Philadelphia knocked down 46-of-94 field goal attempts on Sunday. The 76ers have been pushing the pace lately, getting off 98, 92 and 94 FG attempts in their last three games. I just don't see that being a sustainable trend, noting that Philadelphia averages just 85 FG attempts per contest this season, with that number rising only slightly to 86 here at home. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-23 | VCU v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 137 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Loyola-Chicago at 7 pm et on Tuesday. VCU enters this showdown off three consecutive 'over' results while Loyola-Chicago has seen each of its last four contests go 'over' the total. I look for a reversal of those trends on Tuesday, however. Neither team has faced all that difficult of a schedule this season according to KenPom - both teams rank well north of 200th in the country in that department. VCU is knocking down an average of 23 field goals per game with that number dropping to 21 away from home. While Loyola-Chicago has made good on an impressive 29 field goals per contest here at home, that's had everything to do with the slate of opponents it has faced. The Ramblers have hosted Fairleigh-Dickinson, Central Arkansas, Depaul, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Albany and George Washington to date. You could certainly argue this will be their toughest defensive test to date on their home floor. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-23 | Dartmouth v. Yale OVER 129 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Yale at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night. Dartmouth limps into this game on the heels of six consecutive losses, not to mention six straight 'under' results. The Big Green have done little to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing an average of 61 field goal attempts per game on the season. That spells trouble as Yale likes to push the pace, having hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and gets a chance to show out here at home for the first time since November 30th (each of its last six games were played on the road). The Bulldogs check in off consecutive 'under' results. Note that both teams present a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the opposing defenses in this one as Dartmouth gets off an average of 26 three-point attempts per game while Yale hoists up 24 shots from beyond the arc per contest, with both teams having faced an average of only 19 attempts per game in that department. Last year's matchup between these two teams on Yale's home floor totalled 141 points, despite the two teams getting off just 53 (Dartmouth) and 50 (Yale) FG attempts. You would have to go back 10 meetings here at Yale - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time these two teams combined to score fewer than 130 points in a game against one another. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-23 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 229 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Pacers enter this game on the heels of three consecutive 'over' results - their longest such streak of the season to date. I don't believe tonight's opponent, the Toronto Raptors, will have any interest in getting involved in a track meet, noting that Indiana has shot the lights out over its last three games, putting up 129, 135 and 131 points in reeling off three straight victories. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back in November. Toronto dropped that game by double-digits, pushing the pace to its own detriment, shooting just 37-of-94 from the field. After snapping its two-game skid with defense last time out (Toronto limited Phoenix to 35-of-71 shooting), I'm expecting the Raps be selective at the offensive end of the floor, noting that they've hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. Having held the opposition to just 81 FG attempts on average on the road this season, Toronto's gameplan is fairly clear at this point. As I mentioned, the Pacers have been shooting the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring results though, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five contests. Given we've seen point totals of 218, 191, 211, 222 and 222 in five meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season, I believe tonight's total will once again prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 224.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Saturday. The Cavs have seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total while the Bulls enter riding a four-game 'over' streak. Note that both teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with Cleveland knocking down 50-of-96 field goal attempts and Chicago hitting 53-of-92. I'm certainly not anticipating a repeat performance from either team on Saturday. Despite its recent 'over' streak, Cleveland has held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It has allowed the opposition to knock down an average of only 39 field goals per contest on the road this season. Chicago yielded just 86 FG attempts in last night's double-digit win over the Pistons. It has now held five of its last six opponents to a reasonable 43 or fewer made field goals. The only previous matchup between these two teams this season reached 224 total points but it got there thanks to the Cavs exploding for 128. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Jacksonville in its most recent game but I think it's in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as it travels to face Notre Dame which is in a 'sling-shot' situation after a tough three-game stretch that saw it face Marquette, Georgia and Florida State. With that being said, I don't think we see the Irish run away and hide in this one. Note that Jacksonville has impressively gone 7-3 despite facing the 32nd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Irish are actually allowing five more made field goals on only two additional shot attempts per game this season in comparison with the Dolphins. The two teams are virtually mirror images of one another offensive, from a statistical standpoint at least, in the early going this season. I expect both to find some success here and we're dealing with a reasonably low total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 224 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers scored 117 points in an upset victory in Boston last time out but needed a whopping 98 field goal attempts to get there. It's highly unlikely they come close to approaching that level of production here as Miami has held five of its last seven opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts, including these same Pacers back on December 12th, in a game that totalled just 169 points. For their own part, the Heat aren't scoring with much consistency right now, knocking down 40 or more field goals just once in their last six contests. The Pacers have quietly held the opposition in check lately, yielding just 38, 39 and 39 made field goals over their last three games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night in Charlotte. The Hawks have gotten drilled in the first two games of their current road trip, allowing 128 and 135 points in lopsided defeats in Memphis and Orlando. You have to imagine they'll be looking to button things up defensively in this one, noting that they've actually allowed 120 points or more in four straight games heading in. The good news is, they've allowed just 91 and 116 points in their last two trips to Charlotte going back to last season with neither of those contests coming close to approaching the lofty total we're dealing with tonight. Charlotte is reeling as well having lost six consecutive games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 with the Hornets playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, 13-3 when playing at home off two straight losses over the last two seasons and 9-1 when at home following three consecutive defeats over the same stretch. Perhaps better still, the 'under' is 15-5 with Charlotte playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 214.5 points in that spot - a full 20 points below the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*). |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday. The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NBA First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Brooklyn and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect this series to get off to a high-scoring start on Sunday afternoon in Boston as the Nets and Celtics match up for the fifth time this season. We saw the Nets offense get in gear down the stretch, making good on 41+ field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their last four contests they knocked down 41, 43, 52 and 45 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to March 3rd to find the last time they didn't score 110+ points in a game. An issue, however, has been their loose play defensively. In their last two games they allowed the Pacers and Cavs to get off 104 and 92 field goal attempts. Seven of their last nine opponents made good on 40+ field goals. The Celtics are certainly well-positioned to take advantage. They've knocked down 43+ field goals in five straight games, eclipsing the 50 field goal mark in two of those contests. While you could argue their last couple of games didn't really matter, the C's did yield 97 and 102 field goal attempts to the opposition and I expect to see the Nets force the issue early in this one. We'll play the first half only as I have noticed a trend in Celtics playoff games where the defense picks up and the pace slows as the game progresses. Early on, I look for both sides to find plenty of scoring success here. Take the first half over (10*). |