Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert. Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game. The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5. While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday. We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2. Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points. While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener. Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season. The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Thanks to Game 1 finishing north of 230 points we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the series-opener, a move that I'm not convinced is warranted. The Clippers allowed the Suns to shoot better than 55% from the field in Game 1. Perhaps that wasn't all that surprising considering how little time they had to prepare for the Suns surging offense (which had a different look than they're used to with Chris Paul sidelined). Here, we can bank on the Clippers responding favorably from a defensive standpoint noting that on five previous occasions where they've come off a game where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 55% from the field they've given up just 103.6 points per contest. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 the last 50 times the Clippers have played as a road underdog, as is the case here. The Suns are known for their offense led by Devin Booker (who recorded a triple-double in Game 1) and Chris Paul (who as I mentioned remains sidelined). However, they're actually a quality defensive team, allowing just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. There's no question that Kawhi Leonard's absence makes the Clippers a weaker defensive team but it hurts them offensively as well. The Suns didn't do a great job of defending Paul George in Game 1 but just like Los Angeles, Phoenix should make the necessary defensive adjustments here. Noting that this will now be the fifth meeting between these two teams this season with only Game 1 finding its way 'over' the total we're dealing with for Game 2, familiarity has a tendency to lend itself to tighter, lower-scoring contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night. For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season. Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season. Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 207 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday. |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring game (by today's NBA standards) in the opener of this series on Sunday as the Suns cruised to a 99-90 victory. I certainly expect to see the Lakers punch back on Tuesday night but Phoenix isn't going to roll over and has proven to be an incredibly efficient offensive team here at home this season, averaging 116.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Suns coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 225.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 13-4 with the Suns coming off four or more straight victories over the last two seasons with an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. As for the Lakers, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 49-26 clip the last 75 times they've played on the road off a loss against a division opponent. Look for an answer from Lebron and A.D. off an off day on Sunday but the Suns should do their part to help this one 'over' the total as well. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams just met last Saturday with Milwaukee cruising to a 122-108 victory. That game stayed 'under' the total but this time around we're dealing with a considerably lower number. I believe it will prove too low. The Bucks can pretty much put up 120 points per game here at home in their sleep. They check in ranked seventh in the league in floor percentage here at home and third in possessions per game. Milwaukee also ranks third in the NBA in total rebounding percentage here at home - a big advantage over a Heat squad that ranks 19th in rebound rate on the road - which should allow it to push the pace here. I do believe Miami can afford itself some extra scoring opportunities in transition here as well given it ranks seventh in the league in steals per defensive play on the road and Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in turnovers per possession at home. The 'under' cashed in three of five games in last year's playoff series although I would take that with a grain of salt as those contests were played in unique circumstances in the bubble in Orlando. While the 'under' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings this year - all three games actually went 'over' the number we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen the defense ramp up during the NBA Play-In Tournament and I expect that to continue on Friday night as the Grizzlies face the Warriors for the fourth time this season - this time with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. All three previous matchups have gone 'under' the total. In fact, eight of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three season have gone 'under'. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams more locked in defensively right now. The Grizzlies have held six of their last seven opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse. On the flip side, however, Memphis has shot 44.4% or worse from the field itself in each of its last three contests. The Warriors have been even better than the Grizzlies defensively, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents to 46.5% shooting or worse. Memphis has seen the 'under' cash in seven of its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is an incredible 13-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 208.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Warriors have come off a road loss by three points or less, as is the case here, with those contests reaching an average total of just 213.1 points. With everything to play for on Friday night, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met in Manhattan earlier this month they combined to score just 185 points in a double-digit Mavericks victory. I'm not anticipating a whole lot more offense in this one but we've only seen a minor adjustment to the total with the previous matchup seeing a closing total of 212.5. The Knicks actually check in off consecutive 'over' results. Here, we find the 'under' has gone 10-1 when they come off consecutive games in which they scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 210.1 total points. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-6 with the Knicks coming off an outright underdog victory (New York won as a 2.5-point underdog in New Orleans last time out) over the last two seasons with that situation producing just 207.3 total points on average. Note that the Knicks are allowing just 102.3 points per game when playing with same-season revenge this season, as is the case here as noted above. For their part, the Mavs have posted a 10-15 o/u record at home this season where they've inexplicably scored fewer points per game compared to on the road. While Luka Doncic's last-second heroics were the story, the Mavs got back in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies thanks to some tough defensive play, limiting Memphis to 47.2% shooting. Only two of Dallas' last 16 opponents have shot better than 50% from the field and the Knicks don't figure to approach that number as they average just 103.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11 clip. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in the Warriors rout of the undermanned Thunder last night but I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play here, as I don't expect another peak offensive effort from Golden State in this, the second installment of a five-game road trip. Note that while it has been overshadowed by its recent offensive outbursts, the Warriors are playing some excellent defensive basketball right now, having held their last four opponents to 110 points or less and 48.3% or worse shooting (that qualifies as solid defensive basketball in today's NBA). The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back nights this season with that situation producing just 211.1 total points on average. The 'under' is also 9-1 after the Warriors win three of their last four games ATS this season with that situation producing 215 total points on average. The Cavs have scored less than 110 points in back-to-back games and have plenty of what I would call 'possession killers' in their lineup right now. They've shot 48.7% or worse from the field in three straight games and are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league this season. With this being the Warriors third game in the last four nights (in three different cities), I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Thunder's most recent game - a 117-93 home loss to the 76ers on Saturday. That 'under' result snapped a somewhat improbable three-game 'over' streak for Oklahoma City. I say improbable as the Thunder have been absolutely decimated by injuries and simply don't have the personnel in place to compete in track meets right now. I feel that this game sets up similarly to Utah's relatively low-scoring blowout win over the Cavaliers here in Salt Lake City back on March 29th. We won with the 'under' on that night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Utah should be in a foul mood tonight after letting one slip away against the Wizards last night. After scoring 42 first quarter points the Jazz might have got caught already checking the game off in the win column as the Wizards rallied and ultimately snapped Utah's long home winning streak. Of course, the Jazz are more than capable of bouncing right back tonight, and I expect it to come on the strength of a strong defensive effort after allowing the Wiz to shoot better than 52% from the field last night. Note that Utah allows just 104 points per game on 43.4% shooting at home this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been ripped for 129 points or more in four of their last six games overall but as I noted on Saturday, we should see them at least play with some pride moving forward. They shot 50% from the field in Saturday's loss - the first time they reached that mark since way back on March 14th. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Note that the 'under' has gone 42-22 in Oklahoma City's last 64 games as a road underdog with those contests totaling an average of just 216.8 points. The Thunder have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 110.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting. Note that the Jazz have allowed just 103.8 points per game this season when playing their third consecutive game at home. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Utah. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Bulls v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Grizzlies track meet loss against the Pacers last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Memphis was baited into a frenetic pace against Indiana last night and simply couldn't keep up in an eventual 132-125 loss. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Monday as both the Bulls and Grizzlies check in off losses, and in back-to-back spots. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 when the Grizzlies play at home after losing two of their last three games this season with those contests totaling just 213.1 points on average. We've also seen the 'under' go 26-10 the last 36 times Memphis has given up 120 points or more in a game, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 220.8 points. For the Bulls, this will be their 10th game in the last 17 nights, in 10 different cities! They still managed to shoot better than 51% from the field in last night's loss in Minnesota but I expect them to have a tough time matching that mark tonight. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 46.6% shooting at home this season and 46.9% or worse shooting in six of their last eight games overall. Off last night's poor defensive effort against the Pacers, I expect them to make a bit of a statement here. For the Bulls, they'll simply be looking to keep within arm's reach as they attempt to steal one at the end of a long road trip. Note that each of the last two meetings in this series in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |