Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-13-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. With Notre Dame coming off three straight relatively high-scoring games and Pitt fresh off a wild, high-scoring overtime win over Syracuse last Saturday (we won with the ‘over’ in that game), we’re dealing with a rather high posted total in advance of this matchup in South Bend on Saturday. I believe the total will prove too high. After getting off to a rough start defensively last week, Pitt did settle down, keeping Syracuse out of the end zone from six minutes remaining in the first quarter until nearly midway through the third quarter. On the flip side, however, the Panthers scored a touchdown with just under six minutes left in the first quarter but then the offense didn’t reach the end zone again until the first minute of the third quarter. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers kept the Orange out of the end zone for the entire fourth quarter and overtime. Notre Dame delivered a 45-23 knockout blow at Virginia Tech last Saturday night. I will point out that the Irish scored a touchdown six minutes into the game but then didn’t put another offensive touchdown on the board until three minutes into the third quarter. They gave up just one touchdown in the second quarter and then didn’t allow another until the game was all but out of hand over halfway through the fourth quarter. The last meeting between these two programs was a shootout but that was back in 2015. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Troy v. Liberty OVER 63.5 | 16-22 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Troy and Liberty at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lynchburg on Saturday afternoon. We settled for a push with the ‘under’ in Troy’s most recent game – a 37-20 win over Georgia State last Thursday night. There’s no denying the Trojans offensive ability as they scored at will both early and late in that victory over the Panthers. Now they draw a matchup with a Liberty squad that is quite simply built for shootouts. Its last two games have reached 95 and 90 total points against New Mexico and New Mexico State. It will obviously be facing a tougher defensive test against the Trojans, but I still feel Liberty will be up for the challenge. Note that it got off to a sluggish start last week, which was perhaps to be expected after scoring 52 points in an upset win the week earlier. Once the Flames got rolling in the second half they managed to find the end zone on four different occasions. I don’t believe Troy will shy away from another shootout here. It seems that the Trojans are getting better offensively with each passing week. While they’ve scored a whopping 82 points in notching back-to-back home wins over the last two weeks, they also scored 35 points (all coming in the first half) in their last road game against Louisiana-Monroe. With Liberty possessing one of the nation’s worst defenses, this has all the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and Georgia Tech at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. Duke steamrolled Georgia Tech by a 43-20 score in last year’s meeting. The Blue Devils find themselves in an underdog role in the same matchup this Saturday, despite their 4-1 overall record. Rather than focus on the side, I’ll call for a lower-scoring game than the betting marketplace is anticipating. Unlike past editions of the Blue Devils, this year’s squad can play some defense. They’ve allowed 14 points or less in three of five games so far, but are coming off a 31-14 setback at home against Virginia Tech last time out. They’ve had an extra week to regroup following that loss and I fully expect them to rebound with a strong effort here. It seemed in that game against the Hokies, the Blue Devils hung tough early, limiting Virginia Tech to just a single field goal in the first quarter before grabbing a lead and letting down their guard. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw Duke go on the road against a good Baylor offense and hold the Bears scoreless for the entire first half and gave up just one offensive touchdown through the first three quarters. The Blue Devils familiarity with the Yellow Jackets’ option-based offense will certainly help their cause here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Georgia Tech’s last game – a wild 66-31 shootout victory over Louisville last Friday night. The Yellow Jackets have now scored 60+ points in back-to-back games but I don’t see them coming close to reaching that level of offensive production here. Remember, the Jackets were held to just 40 points combined in back-to-back losses to Pitt and Clemson earlier this season. They took full advantage of a Louisville squad that simply didn’t show up last week – something they won’t be afforded against what will be a hungry Blue Devils team in a bounce-back spot here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt UNDER 50.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Florida and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tricky spot for Florida, on the heels of four straight victories, including a big 27-19 win over rival LSU last Saturday, it hits the road to face a Vanderbilt squad that will be eager to bounce back from a poor showing at Georgia last week. The Gators haven’t given up much defensively this season. Even in their lone loss at Kentucky they allowed just one first half touchdown and with the game hanging in the balance held the Wildcats scoreless from four minutes left in the third quarter until allowing a defensive fumble return for a touchdown on the game’s final play. Last week against LSU, Florida gave up a touchdown in the game’s first four minutes but then didn’t allow the Tigers to sniff the end zone again until a few minutes into the fourth quarter. Now they face a limited Vandy offense that didn’t score a touchdown until two seconds remaining in the game at Georgia last week, at which point the Bulldogs defense wasn’t really all that interested. Even two games back at home against FCS squad Tennessee State, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter. I do expect the Commodores defense to show up for this one, however. They actually hung tough with the Bulldogs for much of the first half last week, only suffering a lapse on a 75-yard touchdown catch early in the first quarter before getting sloppy again on Georgia’s final drive of the opening half. We did cash an ‘under’ ticket in the Commodores 22-17 loss at Notre Dame back in early September. I can’t help but feel that this situation sets up similarly. Vandy will be overmatched talent-wise, but might just catch the Gators lacking a real ‘killer instinct’, which would play into our hands with an ‘under’ ticket in hand as far as I’m concerned. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAF Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in San Diego on Friday night. This hasn’t exactly been a low-scoring series in recent years but I expect to see a different story unfold this time around. Air Force is coming off a dominant 35-7 win over Navy. It is worth noting that the Falcons didn’t find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter in that game. Even in a wild 42-32 loss at Utah State two games back, Air Force scored two second quarter touchdowns but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. Earlier this season against Florida Atlanta (we won with AFA and the ‘under’ in that game) the Falcons didn’t score a touchdown until there were less than three minutes remaining in the first half. You get the picture. Now the Falcons go on the road to face a stout San Diego State defense that is coming off its most impressive performance of the season, defeating Boise State by a 19-13 score last Saturday, on the road no less. Over the course of its current four-game winning streak, San Diego State has given up a grand total of just 68 points. With that being said, the Aztecs offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut. They’ve yet to score more than 28 points in a game this season. Of note, in a 28-14 win over FCS squad Sacramento State earlier this season, the Aztecs scored a touchdown with a little under six minutes left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the game’s final four minutes. Two games back at home against Eastern Michigan, the Aztecs managed only two touchdowns, both coming in the second quarter. In other words, both of these squads are prone to extended touchdown droughts. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, I believe it is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas Tech and TCU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This one will be billed as a shootout but I’m not convinced that’s how the story will unfold on Thursday night in Fort Worth. Texas Tech is coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against West Virginia back on September 29th. With a posted total in the mid-70s for that one, it certainly had all the makings of a shootout and played out precisely that way. I will point out, however, after giving up four first quarter touchdowns the Red Raiders did hold the Mountaineers to just one offensive touchdown the rest of the way. Offensively, Texas Tech could only muster one first half touchdown of its own. Two games back the Red Raiders posted an impressive 42-17 win at Oklahoma State, allowing just two first half touchdowns before shutting out the Cowboys the rest of the way. I certainly would not expect TCU to get involved in many shootouts of its own this season. There was a 40-28 loss to Ohio State back on September 15th (we missed with the ‘under’ in that game) but that contest included two defensive scores by the Buckeyes. The next week, the Horned Frogs were completely manhandled by Texas (we won with the ‘under’ in that game) and last time out they had to settle for a narrow 17-14 win over Iowa State at home on September 29th. Keep in mind, last year’s matchup between these two teams totaled only 30 points as the Horned Frogs won in a walk, 27-3. Both teams enter this game rested and ready and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Utah v. Stanford UNDER 46 | 40-21 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Utah and Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. This is certainly a low posted total by college football standards but I do believe it is warranted. Note that these two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair last year as Stanford pulled out a 23-20 victory. I believe this year’s matchup has a chance to be even lower-scoring. Utah knows it needs to tighten things up if it’s going to avoid a third consecutive loss. We saw a wild first half between the Utes and Washington State last Saturday, with both teams scoring three touchdowns. However, Utah didn’t find the end zone again after scoring a TD with six minutes remaining in the first half. On the flip side, the Utes gave up just one touchdown to the Cougars after nine minutes remaining in the second quarter, and that came on an 89-yard pass completion, something that you don’t see very often against this stout defense. Over the Utes previous two games they scored a grand total of just 24 points and seven of those came as a result of a defensive touchdown. Even in Utah’s 41-10 blowout win over FCS squad Weber State to open the season, it took a while before the offense got going. Stanford got lit up for 38 points at Notre Dame last Saturday night so it will also be looking to put forth a much sharper defensive effort here. Perhaps there was a bit of a hangover effect in play after the Cardinal were involved in a wild, come-from-behind 38-31 overtime win at Oregon the week previous. Much like the Utes, I believe the Cardinal are far more comfortable grinding things out in a defensive affair given their personnel. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Vanderbilt v. Georgia UNDER 55 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m not expecting much from the Vandy offense on Saturday night in Athens. At the same time, the Bulldogs are coming off five straight blowout victories to open the season, in which their offense hasn’t really been tested. I do expect to see the Commodores at least offer some form of resistance on Saturday night. Even last week, when Vandy put up 31 points in a win over FCS squad Tennessee State, it still only scored one first half touchdown and was buoyed by three ‘big play’ touchdowns in the second half – the type of plays that simply won’t happen against this Georgia defense. Prior to that, Vandy had put up just 31 points in its last two games combined. There were a couple of offensive outbursts to open the season as the Commodores defeated Middle Tennessee State and Nevada in blowout fashion. However, those performances were certainly matchup-based. As far as the Georgia offense goes, it is worth noting that two weeks ago, it didn’t score an offensive touchdown in the entire first half against a weak defensive opponent in Missouri. Last Saturday, the Bulldogs scored only three touchdowns before adding two more in the game’s final four minutes. In other words, it’s not as if the ‘Dawgs have been an absolute offensive juggernaut in recent weeks. Last year, this matchup produced 59 points as Georgia rolled to a 45-14 victory. I expect the Commodores to do a slightly better job containing the Bulldogs this time around which lends itself to a lower-scoring contest. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Arizona State v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona State and Colorado at 4 pm et on Saturday. Arizona State is coming off a high-scoring win over reeling Oregon State last Saturday but will be in tough following that performance up in Boulder this week. Note that in the Sun Devils two previous road games this season they managed to score only 41 points combined in losses to San Diego State and Washington. Against San Diego State, Arizona State scored a touchdown with around eight minutes left in the second quarter and then didn’t find the end zone again until the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. The next week at Washington, the Sun Devils put a touchdown on the board three minutes into the contest but then didn’t score another TD until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. In other words, this is an offense that can settle into some lulls. Colorado is off to a perfect 4-0 start and has certainly held up well defensively, save for a poor showing at Nebraska. Although even in that game, the Buffaloes gave up just one big play touchdown in the second half after allowing three TDs in the first 30 minutes. They manhandled UCLA last week, allowing a touchdown halfway through the first quarter but then keeping the Bruins out of the end zone for the remainder of the game. These two teams were involved in a wild 41-30 affair in favor of Arizona State last November. Don’t count on a repeat performance here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 65 | Top | 26-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indiana and Ohio State at 4 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Ohio State’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as the Buckeyes host Indiana. The Hoosiers are off to a solid 4-1 start to the season but let’s face it, their schedule hasn’t toughened up yet. In their lone true test they suffered a 35-21 home loss against Michigan State. They check in 2-0 on the road, where they have scored 62 points, but they managed only 24 points in last week’s victory against a bad Rutgers squad. In that game, they did manage to score three touchdowns, but all three came in the game’s first 21 minutes. The good news is, the Indiana defense can hold up better than it did last year against the Buckeyes. Note that in its toughest test so far, it held Michigan State to only one offensive touchdown before the final 20 seconds of the first half and only three offensive touchdowns in total in that contest – one coming on a 75-yard run to close out the game with just over three minutes remaining. Ohio State’s offense certainly wasn’t great last Saturday night but that had a lot to do with the environment it was playing in. There’s no question the Buckeyes will have an easier time getting loose in this one but I’m still not sure this is a true offensive juggernaut and we could see a bit of a hangover here off the thrilling 27-26 victory at Penn State. In this matchup, Ohio State will simply be looking to pick up a ‘W’ and move on and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh OVER 58 | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Syracuse and Pittsburgh at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Syracuse’s narrow loss at Clemson last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Orange travel to face the Pitt Panthers this week. Prior to getting stymied by an elite Clemson defense last week, the Orange were absolutely rolling along offensively. They should have little trouble picking right back up against a weak Panthers defense here. Note that Syracuse scored three touchdowns before the game was even 12 minutes old two weeks ago against Connecticut. In the Orange’s lone road trip so far this season they lit up the scoreboard for 55 points against Western Michigan – again scoring three first quarter touchdowns. With that being said, Pitt does find itself in a solid bounce-back spot offensively here. Last Saturday the Panthers ran into a very tough matchup and scored only 14 points at Central Florida. Keep in mind just two weeks back they scored four first half touchdowns en route to a wild 38-35 loss at North Carolina. Syracuse held up well defensively against Clemson last week but could be a little worn down heading into this matchup. Should the Orange build a lead I do feel that the Panthers will be able to keep the pressure on by bombing away on offense. Note that even against a very limited UConn offense two weeks ago the Orange still allowed three touchdowns. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas OVER 61 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oklahoma at 12 pm et on Saturday. This matchup wasn’t as high-scoring as anticipated last season as Oklahoma pulled out a 29-24 victory. I expect a different story to unfold this time around as the Sooners are absolutely rolling offensively but also somewhat vulnerable defensively. That should help lead to a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Texas’ offense certainly didn’t perform at a high level in last week’s narrow 19-14 win at Kansas State but I’m willing to give the Longhorns a mulligan for that one. Note that they had scored at least 28 points in each of their previous four games this season. Even against a tough TCU defense two weeks ago, we saw Texas seal the deal with three touchdowns over the game’s final 16 minutes. Oklahoma rolled to another blowout win last week against Baylor, but still allowed 33 points. Should the Sooners get ahead, the Longhorns should have little trouble bombing away on this defense. The Bears put up three second half touchdowns against the Sooners last week. Game flow dictated a relatively low-scoring affair involving the Sooners against Army two weeks ago. Outside of that, virtually all of their games have evolved into shootouts, with Oklahoma scoring at will. While I do have respect for the Longhorns defense, I feel they’ve caught some favorable matchups this season. Here, they run into a Sooners offense that is operating at an extremely high level. Expect a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville UNDER 57.5 | 66-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Louisville at 7 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Georgia Tech's rout of Bowling Green last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Yellow Jackets hit the road to face struggling Louisville on Friday night. The Yellow Jackets absolutely dominated an overmatched Bowling Green defense last Saturday but aren't likely to enjoy anywhere close to the same level of success against the Cardinals. Louisville is allowing just north of four yards per rush this season and held Florida State to next to nothing on the ground in last Saturday's 28-24 loss. The Cards' undoing in that game was a couple of big plays through the air but they won't have to deal with much of an aerial attack at all against the Jackets. On the flip side, the Georgia Tech defense hasn't been all that consistent, but I will point to its game against Clemson two weeks ago, a game in which it didn't allow an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter. The Jackets defense ultimately got worn down and couldn't hold up in that contest but won't face the same type of test against a limited Louisville offense here. The Cardinals actually scored three quick first half touchdowns against Florida State last Saturday but couldn't find the end zone again the rest of the way and were held off the scoreboard entirely in the fourth quarter. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 68 | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. We've already cashed 'under' tickets in games involving both of these teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play again on Thursday night. Tulsa has actually seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. We won with the 'under' in the Golden Hurricane's most recent contest - a 31-17 loss at Temple. It's worth noting that while they did allow 30+ points in that one, they actually didn't give up an offensive score to the Owls until the second quarter. Tempe was buoyed by a pair of defensive touchdowns in that game. The only other time Tulsa traveled this season it held Texas to 28 points, albeit in a losing effort. The Golden Hurricane defense will be facing its toughest test of the season here, but at least it comes in fresh, having just not played since September 20th. Houston also enters this game off its bye week. The Cougars offense has been every bit as good and maybe even better than advertised this season. Save for a wild game against Texas Tech, their defense has been serviceable as well, and draws a favorable matchup against a limited Tulsa offense here. Note that Houston hasn't scored more than 38 points in this matchup since back in 2011 (the two teams have met five times since). I believe they'll have to get well north of that number to threaten this total on Thursday night. It's worth mentioning that the Cougars are without RB Terence Williams, who had run for 142 yards on 25 carries, good for 5.7 yards per rush, before getting injured. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 AAC contests. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 57 | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
NCAAF Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Troy at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in games involving both of these teams earlier this season but I still believe it's the right play on Thursday night as they match up at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Georgia State has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last two road games against Troy but last year managed only 10 points against the Trojans, at home no less, and I believe this is one of the weaker Panthers offenses we've seen in recent years. Don't count on a repeat performance after Georgia State put up 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday. Prior to that the Panthers had scored just 68 points through their first four games combined. Since allowing 59 points in a weeknight matchup with Memphis back on September 14th, Georgia State has shown some improvement on the defensive side of the football. The very next week the Panthers didn't give up a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Western Michigan. Last Saturday they shut out Louisiana Monroe over the final two quarters and nine minutes of football. Troy has absolutely tightened things up defensively since getting trounced by Boise State in its season-opener. The Trojans offense has been rolling along as well but might have to rein it in a bit playing on a short week here. Note that Troy has scored just 21, 31 and 34 points in its last three matchups against Georgia State. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 70 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve split a pair of ‘under’ plays involving Ohio State over the last weeks but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While this showdown certainly has shootout potential, I simply feel that the total has been set too high, largely as a result of last year’s wild 39-38 affair in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense didn’t give Tulane anything last Saturday, in what was potentially a nightmare sandwich spot in between games against TCU and Penn State. Keep in mind, a week earlier Ohio State held up well enough to earn a 40-28 win over TCU, not allowing a single point in the fourth quarter of what was a fairly tight game at the time. Offensively, there’s no question the Buckeyes are a juggernaut but they will face a tough test on Saturday night in Happy Valley. Penn State knows it will need to be sharper defensively than it was last week, when it gave up a pair of first half touchdowns against Illinois. For their part, the Nittany Lions didn’t really explode offensively until they had worn down the Illini in the fourth quarter. Penn State’s offense has been incredible, but like the Buckeyes, will be facing their toughest test of the season to date by a longshot here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Texas’ big win over TCU last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Longhorns hit the road to face Kansas State this week. I thought the Longhorns did a tremendous job moving the football against a good Horned Frogs defense last Saturday. They were able to come up with big plays when they needed to and have now strung together four pretty impressive offensive results through four games, scoring 29, 28, 37 and 31 points. While their defense has certainly contributed as well, I will give plenty of credit to this emerging offense and I’m confident they can keep things rolling against a Wildcats squad that has had a tough time defending against anyone with a pulse this season. Kansas State gave up five touchdowns through the first three quarters against West Virginia last Saturday. In a previous step-up game against Mississippi State two weeks earlier it hung tough for a quarter before allowing a pair of back-breaking second quarter touchdowns. Offensively the Wildcats have had a tough time as well but will look for a spark with QB Alex Delton taking over the reins against the Longhorns. I like the fact that they’re catching Texas in a clear letdown spot off back-to-back high profile wins over USC and TCU. Let’s also keep in mind that we saw a shootout between these two teams last year with Texas prevailing by a 40-34 score. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Bowling Green v. Georgia Tech UNDER 65.5 | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in two straight and three of Bowling Green's four games overall this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. It's certainly worth noting that in the Falcons last game against Miami-Ohio last week, we saw only 34 total points through the first three quarters. Despite a wild 27-point fourth quarter, the game still stayed 'under' the number we're working with this week. The Falcons certainly haven't been great defensively this season but I feel they catch a less than daunting matchup, albeit against a Power Five opponent on Saturday afternoon. Georgia Tech has put up only 40 points over its last two games after scoring a whopping 79 points in its first two contests. Of course, the matchups have dictated the Yellow Jackets offensively struggles, although failing to reach the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter against a relatively weak Pitt defines two weeks ago was concerning to be sure. While this should be a layup for Georgia Tech, I'm just not sure we're going to see them go off offensively. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets defines should 'get right' in this matchup. The Falcons will probably look like they're going in slow motion after going up against Clemson last Saturday. It will likely take a shootout to get 'over' this lofty total - I'm not sure we'll see one develop on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Syracuse v. Clemson UNDER 66 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a shootout between these two squads in Death Valley on Saturday afternoon. I'm not sure we'll see both teams contribute enough to get 'over' the inflated total, however. Syracuse has been rolling offensively, but has also had the benefit of playing each of its last three games on the fast track at the Carrier Dome. Even in a shocking upset win over the Tigers at home last season, the Orange still scored 'only' 27 points. The last time they played in this stadium they were shutout in a blowout loss back in 2016. Clemson is on point defensively right now, having allowed just 61 points through four games. It's not as if the Tigers have been facing all cupcake opponents either, with two road games against Texas A&M and Georgia Tech. While the Tigers offense can be electric, I do still feel the Orange defense is slightly underrated entering this one. When they needed to step up against Florida State two weeks ago, they did so in a big way, allowing just seven points in a blowout victory. I don't expect to see the Syracuse defense completely wilt under the pressure on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 60 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at AT&T Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The last time these two teams met last September we saw a wild game with Arkansas prevailing by a 50-43 score. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that Arkansas has scored a grand total of just 47 points over its last three games after putting up 55 points against FCS squad Eastern Illinois in its season-opener. While last week’s beatdown at the hands of Auburn was somewhat expected, there’s really no excuse for putting up only 17 points against North Texas, at home no less, the week previous. In that game, we didn’t see the ‘Hogs reach the end zone until the second quarter and not again until the final minute of the fourth quarter, when UNT was in full prevent defense mode. Defensively, I will give Arkansas credit for giving up just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters against Auburn last week. Special teams have been a bit of an issue for the ‘Hogs but that’s not really something we can account for when handicapping the total here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Texas A&M’s blowout loss at Alabama last Saturday, but it’s not as if the total was torched in that contest and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that prior to that, the Aggies had allowed only 45 points combined through their first three games. Even in a tough matchup against Clemson, the Aggies gave up just two first half touchdowns and nothing at all in the fourth quarter of what turned out to be a nail-biter. Offensively, I’ll point out that A&M only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half against Louisiana-Monroe two games back, with that game ultimately turning on a late first half blocked field goal for a touchdown. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between UCLA and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Boulder on Friday night. The UCLA offense has had a tough time getting things going in its first year under the guidance of Chip Kelly, scoring a grand total of just 52 points through three games. This does have the feel of a ‘clean slate’ game, however, as the Bruins head out on the road for their first Pac-12 game of the season. And they’ll be facing a Colorado defense that probably isn’t quite as good as the stats may indicate, as it has faced a weak Colorado State offense and an FCS opponent in New Hampshire in two of its first three games this season. In the Buffaloes other game, they allowed well over 500 total yards of offense in a wild 33-28 victory over Nebraska. The good news for Colorado is that its offense has been better than anticipated and I don’t believe the UCLA defense will offer a great deal of resistance on Friday night. Colorado scored three offensive touchdowns in the first half against UNH last Saturday and it was a breakout performance by RB Travon McMillian as he ran for 162 yards on only 15 carries. Of course, the offense evolves around experienced QB Steven Montez. He didn’t have to do much against UNH last time out, but in his first two games, threw for 689 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. He should have a field day against a very beatable UCLA defense that is still finding its way in the early going and just allowed five offensive touchdowns in a blowout loss against Fresno State, at home no less. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 67 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 83 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Memphis and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in New Orleans on Friday night. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s blowout loss at Ohio State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well in this spot. Yes, the Green Wave got absolutely torched defensively against the Buckeyes but that was to be expected. Keep in mind, in their previous game, also on the road, they limited UAB to just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters. They held up well in their previous contest as well, albeit against FCS squad Nicholls State, not allowing a touchdown until the final 30 seconds of the first half en route to a 42-17 win. And of course in their season-opener they limited a pretty good Wake Forest offense to only 17 points in regulation time. While Memphis is certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, most of the Tigers damage has been done at home this season. In their lone road tilt, they scored just one first half touchdown in an eventual 22-21 win over Navy (I will point out that weather conditions were not favorable in that contest). Memphis’ other three games have all resulted in blowout victories, and it has scored 66, 59 and 52 points. Perhaps we see a bit of a letdown from the offense here as it hits the road for the first time since September 8th to face a 1-3 Tulane squad that certainly doesn’t draw a great deal of motivation. The Green Wave offense is not good this year and Memphis will certainly be focusing on playing better defensively after giving up 35 points against South Alabama last week. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL OVER 55.5 | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC matchup on Thursday night. North Carolina got off to a shaky start offensively this season but has been getting sharper with each passing week. Last Saturday, the Tar Heels pulled out a wild 38-35 victory over Pitt - their first win of the season. I look for them to build on that performance here, even against a quality Miami squad that has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a real stinker against LSU. Since getting off to a sluggish start against the Tigers, the Miami offense has exploded, scoring 171 points over its last 13 quarters of football. I don't expect the Tar Heels to offer all that much resistance here. Last week, North Carolina allowed four first half touchdowns against Pittsburgh. The last two meetings in this series have been low-scoring, totaling just 33 and 43 points. Keep in mind, this is the earliest matchup between these two teams since way back in 2008. It's worth noting that contest did play 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | UNLV v. Arkansas State OVER 66.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between UNLV and Arkansas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. This may not be a traditional shootout as I anticipate both teams ripping off their biggest gains on the ground, but I’m expecting a high-scoring result just the same. UNLV comes in with plenty of positive momentum following back-to-back blowout wins over UTEP and FCS squad Prairie View A&M. In those two games, the Runnin’ Rebels scored a whopping 98 points, thanks in large part to an explosive rushing attack. In each of the last two games, UNLV has had two players run for more than 100 yards and there’s a good chance we’ll see a similar story unfold on Saturday night in Jonesboro. Arkansas State has been involved in three very different games to open the season, and like UNLV has managed to win two of them. The Red Wolves opened the campaign with a rout of Southeast Missouri State before getting their doors blown off at Alabama and finally outlasting Tulsa in a bit of a slugfest last week. A return home should get the Red Wolves offense humming again, noting that QB Justice Hansen threw for six touchdowns in their lone previous contest here. Even against Alabama, Arkansas State was able to get its ground game rolling a little bit and it should have little trouble doing so against a porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have yet to show they can slow anyone down running the football and that should open things up for a wild, back-and-forth affair on Saturday night. We’re dealing with a high posted total for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Troy v. UL-Monroe UNDER 60.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and Louisiana-Monroe at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a high posted total in this Sun Belt matchup on Saturday night in Monroe and I believe it will prove too high. Troy was involved in a slugfest at Nebraska last week. Of course, that low-scoring affair had a lot to do with the Cornhuskers missing their starting quarterback. Still, I’ll give credit to the Trojans defense for keeping Nebraska out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and not allowing it to get there again until shifting into prevent defense in the game’s final three minutes. Since getting absolutely torched by Boise State in its season-opener, Troy has been able to gain some confidence on the defensive side of the football leading up to this Sun Belt opener. Offensively, it’s tough to know what to make of the Trojans as their lone explosion came at home against FCS squad Florida A&M. I do believe that Louisiana-Monroe can hold up better than it did in last year’s meeting, when it allowed a whopping 51 points. While the Warhawks ultimately lost in blowout fashion on the road against Texas A&M last week, they did hold their own for a while, allowing only two offensive touchdowns in the first half. That game may have turned on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Aggies in the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous, Louisiana-Monroe went on the road and kept Southern Miss out of the end zone for the entire second half in a 21-20 victory. The Warhawks only managed two offensive touchdowns themselves in that one, adding another touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone. This game may have shootout potential but I believe the familiarity between these two squads, along with the fact that both are coming off physical matchups last week, will lead to a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Lexington on Saturday night. This is a showdown between two undefeated SEC squads and sets up as a potential slugfest as far as I’m concerned. It’s certainly not being priced that way as far as the total goes, however. While Mississippi State’s offense has grabbed all of the attention, it’s been the Bulldogs defense that I’ve been most impressed by. Through three games they’ve allowed a grand total of just 26 points and have yet to give up more than 10 points in a game. Last week’s rout of Louisiana-Lafayette may have looked like and played out like a cupcake matchup, but the Ragin’ Cajuns had scored 49 points in their season-opener and Sun Belt squads never shy away from dialing up their offense in non-conference matchups. The Bulldogs allowed an early first quarter field goal but then held the Ragin’ Cajuns scoreless until more than midway through the fourth quarter in that one. In a tougher test on the road against Kansas State, Mississippi State didn’t allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. Kentucky has given up just 46 points through three games and has seemingly gotten stronger defensively with each passing game. The Wildcats were certainly impressive in their lone true test so far this season, allowing only 16 points on the road against Florida two weeks ago. They held the Gators out of the end zone until midway through the second quarter in that contest. The Kentucky offense scored an early touchdown against Murray State last week but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the final two minutes of the first half. I believe both defenses can keep the opposing offenses at bay for stretches in this Saturday night showdown. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 47.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a relatively low posted total in this game but that number is warranted in my opinion. We missed the mark with the 'under' in TCU's 40-28 loss to Ohio State last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. That game really got away from the Horned Frogs as a result of a couple of defensive scores by the Buckeyes, something we can never truly account for in our handicapping. Here, I look for the Horned Frogs defense to hold up well against a Texas offense that is good but certainly not great. Last week, the Longhorns delivered a 37-14 win over USC although it's worth noting they didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter in that game and were ultimately buoyed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in the third quarter. That game saw a scoreless fourth quarter. Note that these two programs met last November and TCU delivered a low-scoring 24-7 victory. This one may not stay in the 30's but I do believe it will stay 'under' the total that we're being offered. To put it simply, this is a matchup between two of the Big 12's best defenses. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 62 | 23-45 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Alabama at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M had little trouble bouncing back from a narrow loss to Clemson one week earlier, as it hammered Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 last Saturday. Now things get a whole lot tougher once again as the Aggies head out on the SEC road to face Alabama. Note that despite scoring 48 points in last week’s rout, the Aggies actually only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half (they scored another on a blocked field goal return). Their ground game ultimately wore out the Warhawks in the second half and they added a couple of late scores to pad their lead, but it’s unlikely we’ll see the Crimson Tide wilt as this game progresses. Alabama has yet to be tested this season, rolling to blowout wins over Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss. I do believe the Tide offense will face some resistance in this one. Remember, the Aggies did manage to limit an outstanding Clemson offense to only two first half touchdowns two weeks ago, and held the Tigers to just 17-of-27 through the air for less than 300 passing yards. Last year’s meeting between these two programs reached only 46 total points. We’re dealing with a much higher total this time around and I believe it will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Tulane v. Ohio State UNDER 69 | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Ohio State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure where all of the points are going to come from in this game. Ohio State is coming off a huge 40-28 win over TCU last week and could suffer a bit of a hangover as it returns home to host a cupcake matchup with Tulane. I'm not convinced we'll see the Buckeyes keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in a game that should get out of hand in a hurry. Meanwhile, Tulane scored 42 points in its lone victory over FCS squad Nicholls State but just 41 points in its two other games combined, both losses against Wake Forest and UAB. I have a hard time envisioning the Green Wave scoring more than 14 points in this matchup. If that's the case, Ohio State would have to approach the 60-point mark to eclipse this posted total. I simply feel that this total has gotten out of hand. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 55 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams approached the 60-point mark but I expect a much different story to play out on Saturday afternoon. Louisville’s offense isn’t the same in the wake of QB Lamar Jackson’s departure to the NFL. The Cardinals are 2-1 to start the season and that was to be expected given the opened up with Alabama before hosting Indiana State and Western Kentucky. While their poor offensive showing against Indiana State could be blamed largely on bad weather, there was really no excuse for scoring only 20 points, albeit in a win, against Western Kentucky last week. The Cardinals didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter in that game. While they did give up a pair of first half scores, the Cards defense did toughen up the rest of the way and knows it will have to be even better against a quality opponent in Virginia this week. After manhandling Richmond and allowing only 20 points in a losing effort on the road against Indiana, the Cavaliers were put back on their heels a little bit at home against Ohio last week. That one turned into a shootout early on and we saw Virginia struggling to hang on defensively at times. We have seen this Cavs defense play well for extended stretches this season, however, and a date with the struggling Cardinals offense should benefit them here at home on Saturday. This may not turn out to be a defensive slugfest but I believe asking for nearly seven touchdowns to be scored is a bit much. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri OVER 64.5 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a shootout as the Bulldogs and Tigers renew acquaintances in an early matchup on Saturday afternoon. Georgia has scored 40+ points in all three games so far this season but will be facing its toughest test to date against undefeated Missouri. I think the bigger concern for the Bulldogs will be slowing down a Mizzou offense that has put up an impressive 131 points through three games. Even last week, as the Tigers hit the road for the first time this season, they absolutely lit it up, hanging 27 points on Purdue in the first half alone on the strength of three offensive touchdowns. Doing that against a defense as good as the Bulldogs is another matter entirely, but it is worth noting that they managed to score 28 points against Georgia in last year’s meeting. I like the way the Missouri passing offense sets up against the Bulldogs and I expect to see it bomb away for four quarters on Saturday afternoon. Keeping in mind that Mizzou allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first half against Purdue last week and Georgia hung six touchdowns, including five on offense, against Middle Tennessee State, I don’t believe the ‘Dawgs will have much trouble shredding the Tigers on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC UNDER 53 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and USC at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Friday night. The 'over' has gone a combined 4-2 in games involving these two Pac-12 squads so far this season. Washington State really shook loose offensively last week, scoring 59 points in a blowout win over Eastern Washington but that was to be expected. After facing Wyoming, San Jose State and aforementioned Eastern Washington this will obviously be the Cougars toughest test to date. While the Washington State defense can be vulnerable at times, it's not as if the USC offense has been rolling. The Trojans managed only two touchdowns last Saturday night against Texas. The week previous USC traveled to face Stanford and could only muster a field goal. Even against UNLV, the Trojans didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half. While the Trojans did allow 37 points in Saturday's loss to the Longhorns, it gave up just one touchdown in the first half, and Texas returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown in the third quarter. The 'under' has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series and while we're dealing with a relatively low total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 58 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night. Tulsa has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a win over FCS squad Central Arkansas. Even in that 38-27 win over Central Arkansas, the Golden Hurricane were only at 24 points until a couple of late fourth quarter scores put the game away. In their second game against Texas they didn't find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Then last week against Arkansas State, Tulsa scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't hit paydirt again until the fourth quarter. We won with the 'under' in Temple's surprising blowout win at Maryland last Saturday. That game got to 49 total points but it's worth noting that it featured three defensive or special teams touchdowns. Prior to that, the Owls had started the season 0-2 and in their last game didn't score a touchdown until the final play of the first half against a middle of the road Buffalo defense. In the Owls season-opener against FCS squad Villanova they didn't find the end zone until past midway through the third quarter. With all of that said, their defense has held up pretty well and I would expect more of the same on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU UNDER 60 | 40-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and TCU at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this big early season showdown between the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs on Saturday night. Ohio State has faced no resistance in its first two games, rolling to home wins over Oregon State and Rutgers. But now the Buckeyes head to a neutral site (AT&T Stadium in Arlington) to face a much tougher opponent in TCU. The Horned Frogs have given up just 19 points through their first two games this season, albeit against two weak opponents in Southern and SMU. Last week, TCU got caught flat-footed on SMU’s opening drive and gave up a 51-yard touchdown run. But that was basically it as it tightened things up and didn’t let the Mustangs find the end zone again. Similarly, the Horned Frogs allowed a 55-yard touchdown pass against Southern in its opener. Look for TCU to really guard against giving up those big TD plays against an elite Ohio State offense this week. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter against an awful SMU defense last Friday night. They had two defensive and special teams touchdowns in that contest, something you certainly can’t bank on seeing against a fundamentally-sound Ohio State squad. Most are calling for a shootout here, I’m just not sure we’ll see it play out that way on the field. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 58 | Top | 42-25 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Mexico and New Mexico State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two rivals last season with New Mexico State prevailing by a 30-28 score. I believe it will be a struggle to get to that total in this year’s meeting, however. New Mexico opened the season with a wild 62-30 win over Incarnate Word, a cupcake matchup to open the season that the Lobos took full advantage of. They actually held their own last week as well, despite facing one of the best teams in the country in Wisconsin on the road. I like the way the Lobos held up defensively in that one early on, not giving up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half. The question is whether New Mexico will suffer from any lingering effects after facing a big, physical football team like Wisconsin. The good news is the Lobos will be going up against a New Mexico State offense that is still trying to find its way even as it plays its fourth game of the season on Saturday. Because of a first-year starter at quarterback and issues on the offensive line, the Aggies have really had to scale back the offense and I can’t see them really opening things up, or finding a great deal of success against a familiar opponent in New Mexico this week. The Lobos did gain a bit of traction running the football in a blowout loss to Utah State last Saturday and will aim to control the football and the clock again here. Defensively, the Aggies are dealing with some key injuries but on a positive note, didn’t give up an offensive touchdown against Utah State until the final six minutes of the first half last week. After facing Minnesota and Utah State on the road in back-to-back weeks, I’m sure the Aggies will be happy to be back home and facing a rival opponent. In what should be a tightly-contested affair I’ll back the ‘under’. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Houston v. Texas Tech OVER 69 | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Texas Tech at 4:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Houston’s rout of Arizona last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ this week as the Cougars hit the road to face Texas Tech. Houston has now scored exactly 45 points in each of its first two games but let’s face it, those numbers could have easily been higher. In their opener, the Cougars were very slow out of the gates, possibly thinking the game would be a gimme against an overmatched Rice squad. However, they were able to really turn it on in the second half, scoring four unanswered touchdowns to put the game away. We saw plenty of carry-over from that second half performance last week against Arizona as Houston scored three first quarter touchdowns and never looked back in a 45-18 victory. Here, I think the Cougars know they’re going to be in for a shootout and they certainly have the personnel in place to hang around for four quarters. Texas Tech didn’t look good in a season-opening 47-27 loss to Ole Miss with an early special teams touchdown really demoralizing the team. The Red Raiders certainly ‘got right’ last week though, scoring six first half touchdowns en route to a 77-0 rout of Lamar. Texas Tech can do it all on offense and should be able to do what Arizona couldn’t do last week and take advantage of an average Houston defense. This total has been kept in check perhaps because it’s early in the season and both teams still have a lot to prove. I can’t see this one playing out any other way than a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | South Florida v. Illinois UNDER 59 | 25-19 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between South Florida and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Champaign on Saturday afternoon. South Florida is coming off a wild 49-38 victory over Georgia Tech last week. That game essentially turned on a pair of kick return touchdowns for the Bulls in the opening quarter. It’s worth noting that USF scored only one offensive touchdown in the first half of that game. It’s also notable that the Bulls didn’t give up a single score from the four-minute mark of the first quarter until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. Keep in mind, USF posted a 34-14 win over Elon in its season-opener and didn’t give up a touchdown until the final two minutes of the third quarter in that one. It will obviously face a tougher test here, although I don’t believe the Illinois offense is all that intimidating. The Illini are off to a 2-0 start, winning back-to-back home games against Kent State and Western Illinois. I will point out that they didn’t score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the second half against Kent State and not until more than midway through the second quarter against Western Illinois. Should they get off to another slow start here I’m not sure they’ll be able to suddenly flip the switch against a more capable opponent in USF. Defensively the Illini have been ‘good enough’ so far this season but will certainly realize the importance of toughening up after the Bulls hung a crooked number on Georgia Tech last week. Simply put, I believe this number has been set too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 52 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 42 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Vanderbilt’s win over Nevada last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Commodores hit the road to face the Irish in South Bend this week. Vandy has put up a whopping 76 points in posting back-to-back wins to open the campaign. However, this will be its toughest test to date by far, facing a Notre Dame defense that has near NFL-level talent at a number of key positions. I will point out that despite putting up 41 points last Saturday, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown or points of any kind until nearly three minutes into the second quarter. The Commodores got rolling from there, but that was largely due to an inept Nevada offense that turned the football over four times. Similarly in Week 1, Vandy scored just one offensive touchdown before getting its second midway through the third quarter. Notre Dame is still working out the kinks in its own offense, having scored 24 points in each of its first two victories over Michigan and Ball State. The Irish defense has certainly made up for any offensive inefficiencies, allowing only 33 points through two games. Last week against Ball State, the Irish didn’t allow a touchdown until three minutes into the fourth quarter. Perhaps even more notable, Notre Dame didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter, essentially playing prevent defense at that point, against Michigan back in Week 1. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 55 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I’m not anticipating a true defensive slugfest between these two storied programs on Saturday afternoon, I do think we’ll see enough long, extended drives to keep this one ‘under’ the inflated total. Georgia Tech has split its first two games and those two contests couldn’t have played out much differently. After the Yellow Jackets cruised to a 41-0 victory over Alcorn State in their opener they got absolutely ripped in a 49-38 loss at South Florida last Saturday. It’s imperative that the Yellow Jackets get their defense right in this contest before facing Clemson next week and I believe this is a favorable matchup for them to do just that. Keep in mind, Georgia Tech gave up a pair of kick return touchdowns in the first quarter against South Florida last week, which really turned that game on its head early on. Pitt has also split its first two games, defeating Albany by a 33-7 score before getting blown out by Penn State 51-6 last week. The Panthers aren’t as bad defensively as that final scoreline would seem to indicate. Note that they did hold the Nittany Lions to only one touchdown before giving up a second in the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was a 14-6 game at halftime before things got out of hand in the second half, turned by a Penn State punt return for a touchdown late in the third quarter. After that score, the Panthers wilted. I’m not expecting this game to ever get into blowout territory for either side and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Temple v. Maryland UNDER 55 | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this early kickoff matchup on Saturday afternoon. Temple is coming off a fairly high-scoring affair against Buffalo last week, falling by a 36-29 score. Keep in mind, that was a 12-7 game at halftime before a wild second half and fourth quarter in particular. The Owls didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final play of the first half, and that was against a middle of the road to below average Buffalo defense. The Temple defense didn’t hold up particularly well in that game but did limit the Bulls passing attack to just 26 completions on 45 attempts for 275 yards. Maryland is coming off back-to-back wins to open the campaign (we won with the Terps in Week 1 against Texas). Last week the Terps ran roughshod over Bowling Green, cruising to a 45-14 victory. I will point out, however that the Terps didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final three minutes of the first half. On the flip side, Maryland held BGSU to only 143 passing yards and the Falcons leading rusher had just 44 yards on the ground. The Terps didn’t give up a single score in the second half of that game. This is a relatively high total but it’s unwarranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | 22-59 | Loss | -112 | 81 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Memphis at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in this Friday night matchup in Memphis. Georgia State has split its first two games, winning a close one over Kennesaw State and losing in blowout fashion against N.C. State. Note that the Panthers didn't score their first touchdown (or points) of the game until the final minute of the first half against Kennesaw State. They got off to a much faster start against N.C. State, scoring on their first drive but then didn't find the end zone again. The bottom line is I expect Georgia State to have a tough time putting points on the board against the Tigers. On the flip side, Memphis absolutely throttled Mercer by a 66-14 score in its season-opener before falling 22-21 on the road against Navy in a physical contest last week. The Tigers offense has looked outstanding at times but got a little bogged down against the Midshipmen. Here, they'll simply be looking to bounce back from that setback, not necessarily aiming for style points. Off that battle against Navy, we could see a bit of a hangover effect in a game the Tigers should win with ease. I do like the fact that Georgia State allowed N.C. State to reach the end zone only three times in the first three quarters last week, and three of the Wolfpack's four touchdowns in the game were from two yards or less out. In other words, the Panthers did do a good job of limiting the long touchdown strikes, which they'll certainly need to protect against here in Memphis (Tigers RB Henderson had two big touchdown runs in the third quarter against Navy). I simply feel both teams will need to contribute to get this one over the lofty total, and I'm not convinced we see that here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 51 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE START TIME: NCAAF ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Wake Forest at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC showdown on Thursday night. The 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings in this series but I believe that has been factored into this total. Boston College has gotten off to an incredible start having scored 117 points in rolling to back-to-back home wins over UMass and Holy Cross. Now the Eagles will face their first true test of the season on the road against conference opponent Wake Forest. In short, I expect the BC offense to keep rolling. Note that the Eagles have scored an incredible 82 points in the first half of their first two games this season. The difference is here on Thursday they likely won't be able to take their foot off the gas in the second half, and that certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Wake Forest followed up a rather ho-hum 23-17 win over Tulane in its season-opener before scoring 51 points in a rout of Towson last Saturday. The Deacons did whatever they wanted on the ground against the Tigers in that one. They'll face more resistance here, but I still expect them to put some points on the board. Note that even in that ugly victory over Tulane, QB Sam Hartman threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The problem was a pair of key interceptions. He'll certainly need to do a better job of taking care of the football in this one, but I do believe he's capable of doing so in this step-up game. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford UNDER 55.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between USC and Stanford at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. While most folks would love to see a shootout between the Trojans and Cardinal in primetime on Saturday I’m not expect it to play out that way. USC may have overlooked UNLV a little in its home opener last week, as it was involved in a first half slugfest, in which it only managed one touchdown and four field goals. The Trojans didn’t score in the third quarter of that game but then exploded for 24 fourth quarter points, after they had pummeled the Rebels into submission. I don’t believe they’ll be able to wear down the Cardinal in the same way on Saturday afternoon. Similarly, Stanford only managed one first half touchdown against San Diego State last week. The Cardinal then put up a pair of third quarter touchdowns, but again, they’ll be facing a tougher challenge in the Trojans this week. I did like what I saw from the Stanford defense and feel they can carry over some of that positive momentum into this showdown. USC got torched by the UNLV ground game last Saturday but there’s no question that was a focus of emphasis during practice this week. I simply feel there are a lot of similarities between these two football teams, and that we’re in for a tightly-contested affair on Saturday night at The Farm. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65.5 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and Florida Atlantic at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Boca Raton on Saturday afternoon. A couple of things heading into this matchup on Saturday afternoon; first the Air Force offense probably isn’t quite as good as it looked in last week’s 38-0 rout of FCS squad Stony Brook. Second, the Florida Atlantic defense probably isn’t as bad as it looked in last week’s 63-14 blowout loss against Oklahoma. I’m not counting on many explosive plays in this intriguing, under the radar affair on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons will undoubtedly be looking to chew some clock and stay within arm’s reach for four quarters while Florida Atlantic will simply be looking for a bounce-back victory – style points really don’t matter at this point, even if this is a Lane Kiffin-led football team. We’re dealing with an inflated total as I simply don’t believe we’ll see both offenses show up and fire on all cylinders in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Kansas v. Central Michigan UNDER 49.5 | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Kansas and Central Michigan at 3 pm et on Saturday. I was initially leaning to a play on Central Michigan minus the points in this game but I think the line has moved into unplayable territory with the Chippewas. Kansas’ road woes are well-documented to be sure and I certainly feel that is now factored into this line. The Jayhawks are coming off an overtime loss, at home, against FCS squad Nicholls State last week. That game was a bit of a slugfest with just 40 total points in regulation time. The Kansas offense will remain fairly one-dimensional with RB Khalil Herbert carrying much of the load. QB Peyton Bender showed flashes of brilliance, but those were few and far between as he completed just 19-of-35 passes. Things won’t get easier against a Central Michigan squad that hung tough against Kentucky, on the road no less, last week. The Chips forced four turnovers in that game but their offense was stagnant (albeit against a good defense). Note that their 20-point performance was helped along by a defensive touchdown. QB Tony Poljan will be a work-in-progress and I don’t expect big things from him against a Power 5 conference opponent on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Nevada v. Vanderbilt UNDER 62 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Nevada and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this play sets up on Saturday. Nevada is coming off a 72-19 rout of FCS squad Portland State. The Wolf Pack absolutely exploded over the second and third quarters of that contest but what else was to be expected? After all, they were four-touchdown favorites entering that game with a total set in the 70’s. Here, Nevada will face a much stiffer challenge. And it’s certainly worth noting that the Wolf Pack were actually held out of the end zone offensively until the second quarter last week (they did return an interception for a touchdown in the first quarter). Also worth mentioning is the fact that they added a punt return touchdown and three of their offensive touchdowns went for 47 yards or more. I certainly don’t expect Vanderbilt to give the Wolf Pack so much open field on Saturday. Vandy put up a 35-7 win over Middle Tennessee State last week – an impressive win to be sure as MTSU is a quality opponent (Vandy was favored by only three points). Much like Nevada, the Commodores were also buoyed by a defensive touchdown last week. Note that their offense put up just 14 points through the first three quarters against MTSU. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Arizona v. Houston UNDER 72 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll go the contrarian route on Saturday afternoon as Arizona heads to Houston for an early start non-conference showdown. Most are expecting a high-scoring affair but I expect a different story to unfold. Keep in mind, these two teams met last September in Arizona and totaled just 35 points in a three-point Cougars victory. Arizona is in a bit of a tough spot here, coming off an unexpected home loss to BYU to open the season last week. The Wildcats scored only 23 points in that loss, with 13 of those coming in the fourth quarter. They didn't manage to put any points on the board in the first or third quarters in that contest. Their first touchdown didn't come until the final minute of the first half. While the Arizona offense will undoubtedly improve as the season goes on, I don't see a big bounce-back performance from that unit here. Houston rolled to a 45-27 victory over Rice last week but it's worth noting that the Cougars didn't put a touchdown on the board until midway through the second quarter, and that was against a weak Owls defense. I do feel that QB D'Eriq King's three-touchdown (through the air - he added one on the ground) day had more to do with taking what Rice gave him than anything else. I expect him to face a tougher challenge against a Wildcats defense that did hold its own against BYU last week. The early start doesn't hurt our cause here as this game will kick off just after 11 am local time. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and SMU at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last week, albeit with much different outcomes as TCU rolled past Southern and SMU had its doors blown off by North Texas. It is worth noting that TCU was a 49.5-point favorite against Southern and it did take the Horned Frogs half a quarter to find the end zone. QB Shawn Robinson has taken over the reins and certainly played well, but I don't believe we'll see this offense firing on all cylinders for at least a couple of weeks. SMU didn't get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter against a very beatable North Texas defense last week. On a positive note, the Mustangs did allow only one offensive touchdown in the entire first half against the Mean Green Eagles. They were facing a seasoned veteran QB in Mason Fine in that contest, noting that he threw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. The Mustangs will actually be taking a step down in class in some sense as far as quarterbacks go against Robinson. Last year's matchup between these two teams ended up reaching 92 total points. However, it's worth noting that the last three matchups on this field have totaled 56 points or less with the most recent totaling only 36 points in 2016. There's no rush to play this total as we'll likely see it climb by at least a couple of points before kickoff on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Florida State at 8 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in this early season ACC showdown. I'm not sure where all of the offense is going to come from. Yes, Florida State ended last season on an offensive tear, having scored at least 38 points in each of its final four games. Keep in mind, it was favored by at least 13 points in three of those contests. The Seminoles should face a tougher challenge from the Virginia Tech defense here. Meanwhile, the Hokies had a really tough time getting anything going offensively a year ago. In stark contrast to the 'Noles, Virginia Tech scored just 107 points total over its last six games. This weekend has been all about the 'overs' but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 47 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Notre Dame at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Everyone would love to see a shootout between these two storied programs in primetime to kick off the college football season on Saturday but I believe we're in for more of a defensive slugfest. Both defenses are loaded with returning talent and should be well ahead of the offenses at this early stage of the season. We're talking near NFL-level talent on both defenses, while both offenses have plenty of question marks and holes to fill due to injuries and otherwise. The game itself looks like nothing more than a toss-up to me as it will simply come down to which team can make the big play late to seal a victory. Rather than sweat the pointspread, I'll go with the 'under' and call for two elite defenses to play like it on Saturday night in South Bend. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 57 | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Colorado State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Colorado State blew Hawaii out of the water in a 51-21 victory last year but I'm not expecting a similar story to unfold here in the 2018 opener for both teams. Both the Rainbow Warriors and Rams have undergone considerable changes since last year, perhaps nowhere more glaring than at the QB position. I certainly don't expect to see either team bombing away on Saturday night. Hawaii is switching to a run-and-shoot offense this year and there will undoubtedly be growing pains with new faces virtually across the board at all the skill positions on offense. Meanwhile, Colorado State will need to fill the void left by WR Michael Gallup, who has moved onto the Dallas Cowboys. K.J. Carta-Samuels is the Rams new quarterback, having transferred from Washington, where he saw limited action. While I do believe that he can have success in this offense, I'm not sure we'll see this offense running at full capacity right out of the gate. Both teams struggled defensively a year ago, but both are optimistic that they can improve in that department here in 2018. Colorado State in particular saw its defense progress considerably during camp and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over of that here on Saturday night. While we're dealing with a considerably lower total than we saw in last year's meeting, the move is certainly warranted. Keep an eye on the number as it could bump up prior to kickoff on Saturday as the betting public seems to have eyes on a potential shootout. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 45 | 26-23 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and Georgia at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We saw a real contrast in styles in last week's semi-final matchups as Georgia was involved in a wild 54-48 overtime win over Oklahoma while Alabama dominated defensively in a 24-6 rout of Clemson. I'm not anticipating a shootout in the national championship game on Monday as these two SEC foes should be involved in a tightly-contested affair from start to finish. Save for a 56-point outburst against FCS squad Mercer, Alabama hasn't really been all that explosive offensively, scoring 31 points or less in its four other games over the last two months. Georgia is a better defensive team than it showed in last week's victory over the Sooners. On the flip side, I'm confident the Crimson Tide defense can hold its own against another terrific offense here. While Georgia freshman QB Jake Fromm has been outstanding this season, you have to give the edge to the Tide defense in this particular matchup. We're dealing with a low total, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Ohio State at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Friday night's Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes are the favorite in this matchup, and rightfully so. However, I don't expect the Trojans to roll over in this one. USC comes into this game having won five straight, scoring at least 28 points in all five of those contests. They'll be up against it here as the Buckeyes possess a tremendous defense, but not an impenetrable one. Meanwhile, USC's defense hasn't impressed me at all, and as long as Ohio State brings the right mindset into this game, and I believe it will, it should have little trouble marching up and down the field. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 33 points, but that has little relevance here as that game took place back in 2009. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU UNDER 49 | 37-39 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Thursday's Alamo Bowl between Stanford and TCU. We have two quality defenses going head-to-head here and neither offense really closed out the regular season firing on all cylinders. I can't help but think the defenses will remain ahead of the offenses as they prepare to go toe-to-toe on Thursday night. A key here will be the Horned Frogs run defense, which has held the opposition to only 2.9 yards per rush this season. If they can keep the Cardinal ground game in check they should be in the driver's seat in this one. With that being said, I'm confident the Stanford defense will hold its own against a wildly inconsistent Horned Frogs offense. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Boston College at 5:15 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in the Pinstripe Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Iowa closed out the regular season with a 56-point outburst against Nebraska but now following a full month off, I look for the Hawkeyes to return to form so to speak. Keep in mind, this is a team that had been held to 17 points or less in four of its previous five games prior to that rout of Nebraska. Like Iowa, Boston College also closed out the regular season on a high note offensively, scoring 81 points in its final two contests. But the Eagles were also prone to offensive droughts over the course of the season. I'm not convinced the winning side eclipses the 20-point mark in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke OVER 47 | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 45 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Northern Illinois at 5:15 pm et on Tuesday. We have the perfect conditions for a shootout between the Blue Devils and Huskies on Tuesday afternoon. Duke has been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season, posting a 3-9 o/u mark. I like the fact that Blue Devils closed out the regular season with back-to-back wins, scoring 43 and 31 points in the process. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois was rolling offensively for much of the latter part of the regular season, but struggled in its finale against Central Michigan, on the road in less than ideal conditions. I expect to see the Huskies bounce back here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in five of their last six games overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming OVER 45 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Wyoming at 4 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Boise on Friday afternoon. I simply feel the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Wyoming didn't necessarily put its best foot forward offensively during the regular season. The Cowboys stunk on that side of the football for much of the campaign. That was in spite of the Cowboys having a potential number one overall NFL draft pick in QB Josh Allen. Allen missed the team's final two contests, but is expected to return here, and could make amends so to speak, perhaps improving his stock with a strong performance against the Chippewas. Central Michigan closed out the regular season on a high note, riding a five-game winning streak, scoring points in bunches along the way. While the layoff won't help their cause here, I do expect them to find some success moving the football and putting points on the board against Wyoming. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International UNDER 57.5 | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Florida International at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Thursday's Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg. Temple finished the regular season on a high note, securing three wins in its final four games, scoring at least 34 points in each of those wins. However, they haven't played a game since November 25th so any of that positive momentum has essentially been wiped out. Likewise, Florida International scored a whopping 104 points in its final two regular season games. In fact, the 'over' went a perfect 4-0 in the Panthers final four contests. That only serves to give us a more favorable total here, however. I don't feel that the quarterback play on either side warrants much confidence here. We're dealing with a lofty total and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-19-17 | Akron v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65 | 3-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's Boca Raton Bowl. Neither team has had much trouble scoring this season but that has provided us with a lofty total to work with here. Akron's defense has been extremely opportunistic with 19 interceptions and four touchdowns on the season. Florida Atlantic is certainly well aware of the Zips knack for creating turnovers, however, and Lane Kiffin has had plenty of time to drive that point home to his players. The Owls rely heavily on sophomore RB Devin Singletary, who racked up nearly 1,800 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground this season. You can be sure Akron has watched plenty of game film of Singletary leading up to this one and will do everything it can to at least slow him down. I believe we'll see plenty of long drives in this one, ultimately chewing enough clock to keep the final score 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Oregon v. Boise State OVER 61 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Boise State and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It seemed like Oregon got its groove back in its final two regular season games, putting up a whopping 117 points in blowout wins over Arizona and Oregon State. Mind you, both of those victories came in Autzen, but with a relatively short layoff I’m confident the Ducks can pick up right where they left off against an admittedly tough Boise State squad on Saturday in Las Vegas. Boise State was involved in a defensive slugfest against Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference championship game two weeks ago. That wasn’t all that surprising as the two teams had just gone head-to-head the previous week. Here, we have a matchup between two teams that are not nearly as familiar with one another. Prior to those two games against the Bulldogs, the Broncos had scored 41, 41, 59 and 44 points over a four-game stretch – all victories. In fact, they had reeled off seven consecutive wins. I’m anticipating a spirited, high-scoring affair between two teams that may be disappointed to be playing in a pre-Christmas Bowl game, but that will put on a show nonetheless. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-16-17 | North Texas v. Troy UNDER 62.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and North Texas at 1 pm et on Saturday. I think the main reason we’re looking at such a high total in this matchup between two former Sun Belt Conference rivals is the fact that it will be played on the ‘fast track’ at the Superdome in New Orleans. While that should play a factor in handicapping this matchup, it’s not the real story. We have a matchup between two coaching staffs that are very familiar with one another. Perhaps the offensive standout in the game is North Texas QB Mason Fine and the Trojans are certainly familiar with him, having recruited him hard prior to him electing to join the Mean Green Eagles. Troy quietly put together one of the best defensive campaigns of any team in college football and shouldn’t flinch in this matchup. Meanwhile, North Texas will be highly motivated after getting routed by Florida Atlantic in its conference title game. The pointspread is relatively low for a reason. I believe we’ll see a competitive affair between these two squads in a game that stays ‘under’ the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-09-17 | Army v. Navy UNDER 46 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Year after year, we play the 'under' in the Army-Navy game and year after year, we cash our ticket. Nothing changes here in 2017. Snow is in the forecast for Philadelphia on Saturday. Were we talking about two passing teams I might hesitate to back the 'under', but in a run-dominated affair, I'm confident weather won't help the offenses one bit. After giving up no more than 28 points in any game during a six-game winning streak, the Black Knights were torched for 52 at North Texas last time out. Expect a bounce-back performance against a familiar foe here. Meanwhile, Navy had a few tough outings defensively, but closed out the regular season giving up just 24 points against Notre Dame and Houston, on the road no less. The clock will be moving all afternoon long, and I look for a couple of key red zone turnovers to ultimately help keep this one 'under' the posted total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON OVER 46 | 3-38 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Clemson at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Saturday's ACC Championship Game. The oddsmakers are in a tough spot here and have moved the total down from its opener, largely due to the 'Canes poor showing at Pitt on Black Friday. Miami scored only 14 points against a vulnerable defense in that game. I do expect the 'Canes to bounce back in a big way here. After all, this is a team that had produced 85 points in two games previous to that setback at Pitt. Clemson has given up just 27 points over its last three games. But I believe the real story is the Tigers offense, which has put up 126 points over its last three contests. The 'over' has gone 2-1-1 in the Tigers last four games but that's no match for the 'Canes 2-9 o/u record this season. I simply feel that we're in for a higher scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for in this showdown. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida UNDER 81 | Top | 55-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Championship Saturday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Central Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. These two teams have combined to post a 15-7 o/u record this season but as we've learned year after year, Championship Saturday is a different animal in college football. Both of these offenses are outstanding - among the best in the nation. But they've also beat up on mostly terrible defensive units from the AAC over the course of the season. Here, I look for both teams to bring their 'A' game defensively, and even if both units are vulnerable, I believe they're capable of stepping up in this winner take all affair. Note that Memphis hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in this series since 2008. Since then, the 'under' has gone 4-1-1 in six meetings. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Boston College v. Syracuse UNDER 58 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston College and Syracuse at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. Boston College has certainly proved itself defensively during its current 4-1 run, and in particular over its last four contests. Over that stretch, the Eagles have allowed just 46 points combined. Meanwhile, Syracuse is simply playing out the string thanks to an untimely four-game losing streak (which came on the heels of a huge upset win over Clemson). The wheels have come off for the Orange defense over their last two games, giving up a combined 120 points. I do expect to see them play with some pride on Saturday at the Carrier Dome, however, as they offer some resistance against a middle of the road Boston College offense. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati OVER 57.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Connecticut and Cincinnati at 12 pm et on Saturday. It certainly appears that both of these three-win teams have checked out defensively and I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as a result. Connecticut has lost four games in a row, allowing 52, 37, 49 and 39 points along the way. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has dropped back-to-back games, giving up 35 and 48 points in the process. I do expect the offenses to show up on this occasion as both teams will be taking the field for the final time this season. The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-9 snoozefest in favor of UConn last year. Expect a different story to unfold this time around. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Georgia Tech v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia Tech and Duke at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams totaled 73 points and I believe we’re dealing with an overreaction to the step back both squads have taken this year, particularly on the offensive side of the football. I’m confident we’ll see a high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Durham. Both teams will certainly have ample motivation. Georgia Tech needs one more victory to become Bowl eligible while Duke will need to win its final two regular season games to accomplish that feat. The Yellow Jackets stunned Virginia Tech by a 28-22 score last week but haven’t won back-to-back games since September. While their offense hasn’t been all that consistent, it has certainly come up with big performances over the course of the season and I believe Duke is vulnerable against their option attack here. The Blue Devils have lost six straight games since opening the campaign with four wins in a row. Their offense, or lack thereof, has been the main culprit. However, as I mentioned, with Georgia Tech coming off a big victory last week, they could suffer a big of a defensive letdown here and open the door for a breakout performance from the Duke offense. I believe this total has been set at least a few points too low. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Rice v. Old Dominion OVER 53 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
CFB C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Rice and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I fully expect to see an entertaining shootout between these two losing football teams on Saturday afternoon. Maybe shootout isn’t the appropriate word as I’m not sure either offense will rely on its passing attack to put points on the board in bunches. Instead I look for both ground games to run wild. After pitching a shutout against Charlotte, ODU was torched for 30 points by Florida International last week, but still managed to win the game by eight points on the strength of a big day from RB Ray Lawry. The ODU defense has been lit up more often than not this season, and while Rice is by no means an offensive juggernaut, I do expect the Owls to find some success after scoring 34 points in a losing effort last week. RB Nahshon Ellerbe ran for 153 yards and four scores in that game. I’m confident the losing side can get well into the 20’s in this contest, and that should put us in excellent shape with an ‘over’ ticket in hand. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 51 | 28-44 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Virginia and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday. I expect Virginia to take a more conservative approach after suffering a 38-21 loss at the hands of Louisville last week. The Cavaliers are well aware of how opportunistic the Miami defense is, and I don’t believe we’ll see them try to sling it all over the field. After a terrific start, Virginia has now lost three of its last four games, but has already gained Bowl eligibility. Save for a 40-point performance against Georgia Tech, its offense has been stuck in the mud for the last month or so. Meanwhile, the Canes are fresh off a 41-8 dismantling of Notre Dame last Saturday. They’ll simply be looking for a clean victory here to improve to a perfect 10-0 on the season. Keep in mind, last week marked the first time since September 29th the Canes eclipsed the 28-point mark. While ‘style points’ would be welcomed, I’m not sure the Canes get those in this particular matchup. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 76.5 | Top | 35-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona and USC at 10:45 pm et on Saturday. I’m not anticipating the type of shootout the oddsmakers are calling for in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Yes, this sets up as a fantastic matchup between two nationally ranked Pac-12 foes, both with offenses that can put points on the board in a hurry. However, I’m confident the Trojans athletes on the defensive side of the football will give the Wildcats offense some trouble, and that sets the tone for this contest in my opinion. Arizona will stick around as this is a confident bunch that certainly doesn’t want to throw away all it has accomplished already this season, having gone 4-1 in Pac-12 play. But I don’t believe the Wildcats will be successful in turning this into a track meet (or maybe they’d prefer to take their chances in a lower-scoring affair). Either way, I don’t think the winning side sniffs out 40. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 47 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not anticipating a defensive slugfest between these two in-state rivals on Wednesday night. Central Michigan allowed just nine points in a rout of Ball State a week-and-a-half ago but should have a much tougher time containing a Western Michigan offense that averages close to five yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed only 31 points combined over their last two games. Keep in mind, just three games back they were torched for 68 points in a wild overtime victory over Buffalo (that game totaled 62 points in regulation time). Remember, earlier this season, Western Michigan was also involved in a game totaling 80 points against USC. The 'over' is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series although last year's matchup did stay 'under' the number. While I'm not calling for a shootout here, I do believe these two teams will finish enough drives with 7's on the board to send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida OVER 43.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The thinking here is that Florida will turn this game into a slugfest. I’m not so easily convinced that will be the case, however. The Georgia Bulldogs have evolved into an offensive juggernaut this season and I don’t see them getting derailed by the Gators. Florida has been involved in back-to-back low-scoring affairs, totaling just 69 points combined over its last two contests. Keep in mind, this is a team that put up 92 points during a three-game winning streak in the latter half of September though. Georgia looked nearly invincible defensively earlier in the season but does check into this game having allowed 42 points against Vandy and Missouri over its last two contests. We’re dealing with a low total in this matchup, too low in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Akron and Toledo at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the Glass Bowl on Saturday afternoon. Akron is coming off back-to-back strong defensive performances, giving up just 16 points combined in victories over Ball State and Western Michigan. I look for the Zips to struggle to contain the Rockets offense on Saturday, however. Akron can certainly put points on the board itself, even if it has been inconsistent in that regard this season. I see this as a favorable spot for the Zips offense to get rolling again after getting bottled up for much of the game against Western Michigan last week. The only blip on the Rockets schedule so far was a 52-30 road loss against Miami. Like Akron, Toledo has put forth a couple of solid defensive showings lately, giving up just 25 points combined in wins over Eastern and Central Michigan. But again, I’m not sure that’s sustainable. Last year’s meeting between these two teams totaled 65 points. I believe the potential is there for this one to eclipse that number. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion OVER 47 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Friday. I don't think the oddsmakers or the betting public are expecting much out of Old Dominion in this game, particularly on the offense side of the football. Quite the contrary, I expect the Monarchs to put some points on the board, the question is whether they can slow the Hilltoppers enough to keep this game within arm's reach. We won't worry about that, instead backing the 'over' and counting on a relatively high-scoring affair. Keep in mind, these two teams combined to score 83 points in last year's meeting. In fact, the 'over' has gone a perfect 3-0 in this series over the last three years, with each total being set in the 60's or 70's. I'm not convinced the big downward shift in the number is warranted. The Monarchs got RB Ray Lawry back last week and he made a minimal impact. Expect them to get their offense back in gear this Friday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Army OVER 47 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years. The Eagles and Black Knights have met three times since 2012, with those three games totaling 86, 75 and 94 points. With that being said, the 'under' has cashed in each of Eastern Michigan's last eight games going back to last season. However, the Eagles have faced a number of defensive-minded squads so far this year. While Army can get involved in its share of slugfests, that hasn't been the case lately, as the Black Knights have scored 35 and 49 points in their last two games, with the 'over' cashing in both of those contests. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 56 | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Clemson and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams have combined to record a 9-3 'under' mark so far this season but I'm going to go the other way and back the 'over' at the Carrier Dome on Friday night. Clemson hasn't really exploded offensively since hanging 47 points on Louisville a month ago. But this looks like a fine spot for the Tigers to get rolling offensively. Syracuse has only managed to hold two opposing offenses at bay this season, and those were Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan. The Orange will be facing a much different level of competition here. I do have some confidence in the Orange offense putting points on the board here. We've seen Syracuse step up in similar weeknight matchups over the years and here they catch the Tigers off three consecutive stellar defensive efforts, allowing 7, 17 and 14 points over their last three games. I believe we're in for a bit of a shootout on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting off to a hot start offensively this season, North Carolina has cooled off considerably over the last two games and I’m not sure we’ll see the Tar Heels pick themselves up off the mat against an elite opponent in Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon. A more likely ‘get right’ matchup will come next week as UNC hosts Virginia. Notre Dame hasn’t faced any resistance over the last three weeks, scoring 49, 38 and 52 points in reeling off three consecutive victories. While the Tar Heels certainly aren’t known for their defensive ability I do expect them to show up in that regard here. They had very little success against the Georgia Tech option offense last Saturday but should bounce back against an Irish offense that could be in for a letdown. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 72 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Storrs on Friday night. The thinking here is that UConn is capable of trading points with Memphis, I'm just not sure that's how this will play out on the field. Yes, the Tigers defense has looked terrible so far this season. But the schedule-makers haven't done them any favors. I do see this as a favorable matchup against a good but not great Huskies offense. Meanwhile, UConn checks in 1-3 on the season and gave up a season-high 49 points in last week's loss at SMU. Expect a stronger performance from the Huskies defense this time around. The last meeting between these two teams three years ago totaled only 51 points. This total is inflated in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State UNDER 66.5 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and N.C. State at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Raleigh on Thursday night. Both of these teams are capable of stopping the run and that's key. The Cardinals have held the opposition to 3.1 yards per rush so far this season while the Wolfpack have been even better in that regard, allowing just 2.9 ypr. Note that the 'under' has cashed in N.C. State's last two games after the 'over' had cashed in its first three contests. As for Louisville, the 'over' has gone 3-1 in its last four games, but that only helps to keep this total in a lofty range on Thursday night. The Cardinals reputation precedes them with Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson under center. They'll get their points in this one, but not enough to topple the total in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 51 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Clemson and Virginia Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Blacksburg on Saturday night. Both of these teams are off to perfect 4-0 starts and both have enjoyed plenty of success offensively. Here, I’m anticipating a bruising battle, however. Lost in the Tigers perfect start is the fact that they’ve given up a grand total of 37 points, with 21 of those coming in an impressive blowout win on the road against Louisville. This won’t be the Tigers toughest test of the young season as far as I’m concerned and I’m confident they’ll hold up well against a good but not great Hokies offense. Virginia Tech, like Clemson, has done a terrific job defensively, allowing only 41 points through four games, highlighted by two shutouts along the way. This will without question be their toughest challenge of the young season and while playing at home helps, I certainly don’t expect to see the Hokies light up the scoreboard against an excellent Clemson defense. The last matchup between these two teams was a 42-35 shootout in favor of Clemson in last year’s ACC Championship Game. I’m not expecting a similarly high-scoring affair this time around. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. USC had no trouble getting past Washington State in last year's meeting, rolling to a 44-17 victory. That was the second consecutive 'under' result in this series, but I expect a different story to unfold as they meet on Friday night in Pullman. We've kept a close eye on the Cougars this season, and so far, it certainly seems as if their defense has taken a step back, as expected. That doesn't bode particularly well as they prepare to face a Trojans offense that can put points on the board in a hurry. The good news for Washington State is, it has a veteran QB in Luke Falk that after a brief hiccup early in the season, has settled in to throw for just shy of 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception. We're dealing with a high total in this one, but it's warranted in my opinion. I'm anticipating a shootout on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 60 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s rout of Old Dominion last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here as the Tar Heels welcome the Blue Devils to Chapel Hill. Duke is off to a somewhat surprising 3-0 start to the season and while the Blue Devils offense has been terrific, it has been the defense that has impressed me the most. Through three games, Duke has allowed a grand total of only 44 points. Yes, there was a gimme against North Carolina Central in the mix but over the last two weeks, the Blue Devils have held both Northwestern and Baylor in check. Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced a pretty tough early season slate, hosting Cal and Louisville before defeating Old Dominion on the road last week. The Tar Heels know they’ll need to be better defensively in order to take down the Blue Devils and I believe they will be. Offensively, they’ve been better than expected but face a tough challenge here. Most are anticipating a shootout but I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California OVER 71.5 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
CFB ESPN O/U Bailout. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Ole Miss and Cal at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Berkeley on Saturday night. This one is being pegged a shootout, and rightfully so. Ole Miss probably isn’t quite as good as it has looked through two games but there’s no denying that the Rebels possess an offense that is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. Against a Cal squad that won’t shy away from a track meet, I expect Ole Miss to continue to thrive offensively. The Bears have scored 68 points in winning back-to-back games to open the season, including a quality road win against North Carolina two weeks ago. It’s the Bears running game that really exploded against Weber State last week, and I’m confident they’ll be able to move the chains on the ground against a middle of the road Rebels defense as well. Despite facing two lower-tier opponents in South Alabama and Tennesee-Martin to start the season, the Rebels have still allowed 50 points, albeit in two winning efforts. They know that they’ll need to end most drives with seven points on the board if they want to stick around in this game. Likewise for Cal. In a matchup of two teams that need to make the most of their non-conference schedules, I’m anticipating an entertaining, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 65.5 | 23-52 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oregon State and Washington State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. It usually takes two to topple a total this high, and I’m not sure we see both offenses turn in stellar performances on Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Oregon State has already allowed 138 points through three games this season so its focus will undoubtedly be on responding on that side of the football this week. Offensively, the Beavers remain a work in progress and I wouldn’t count on much progress against a solid Cougars defense this Saturday. Washington State gave up 44 points in last week’s thrilling triple-overtime win over Boise State. Keep in mind, the Cougars actually held Boise State to just 17 points through three quarters in that game. The Broncos were buoyed by a fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. While Washington State is missing some defensive talent from last year’s squad, it still has the pieces in place to perform well this season, and this is a bit of a statement game to move to 3-0. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-17 | North Carolina v. Old Dominion UNDER 55 | 53-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Old Dominion at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed tickets in games involving both of these teams last week, successfully fading the Tar Heels against Louisville while backing the Monarchs in their ugly win over UMass. Here, I won’t hesitate to switch gears and set sights on the total, which I feel has been set a shade too high. North Carolina has lost a lot of talent from last year’s offense. However, the Tar Heels haven’t seemed to miss a beat, scoring 65 points, albeit in back-to-back losses to Cal and Louisville – both at home. Now as UNC hits the road for the first time, I’m not sure we’ll see them be quite as productive offensively against an Old Dominion defense that is better than advertised. The Monarchs have become known for their offensive prowess in recent years, however, they’ve also dealt with some turnover on that side of the football, and so far this season it has been their defense that has shone. They’ll certainly take this matchup as a challenge, and a good measuring stick here only three games into the season. I’m anticipating a hard-fought affair that sneaks ‘under’ the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple OVER 52 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Temple at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at the Linc on Friday night. We cashed a ticket fading UMass last week, and also cashed with the 'over' in the Minutemen's season opener against Hawaii. In other words, I think we have a pretty good handle on where this team is at right now. I certainly feel that UMass is a better offensive team than it showed in last week's ugly 17-7 home loss to Old Dominion. Note that the Minutemen had scored 63 points in their first two games. With TE Adam Breneman and WR Andy Isabella, not to mention RB Marquis Young, who scored four touchdowns in the first two games, UMass has a solid nucleus on offense. It's just a matter of them finishing drives. I believe they'll be able to do that against a Temple defense that lost a lot of talent from last year's team. The Owls have been held to 16 points in each of their first two games going 1-1. They ran into a tough FCS opponent in Villanova last week but will take a step down in class against the Minutemen. Keep in mind, this is a UMass team that gave up 38 points against both Hawaii and Coastal Carolina. Last week's opponent, ODU was missing its top offensive player in RB Ray Lawry. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Boise State has reeled off three consecutive 'under' results going back to last season while the Cougars have posted an 0-2-1 o/u mark over their last three contests dating back to 2016. Washington State is still thought of as an offensive powerhouse rather than a defensive stalwart but the fact is, the Cougars can bring it on the defensive side of the football, particularly here at home. They opened the 2017 campaign with a shutout performance against Montana State. They'll obviously be facing a much tougher challenge here but after barely breaking a sweat last week, I believe they'll be up to the task. Boise State had its way with Troy in its season opener, prevailing by a 24-13 score. Note that the Broncos managed only 12 points in a blowout loss in their Bowl game against Baylor last year. We've seen the Broncos have a tough time keeping it rolling offensively when stepping up in class in recent years and I believe that will prove to be the case here as well. Boise State may not be an elite defensive squad but it is serviceable to be sure. Note that it hasn't allowed more than 31 points in a game since November 2015. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-09-17 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 46.5 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Only one of the last four meetings in this series has totaled north of 45 points and that came in a rare Bowl matchup two years ago. These early September showdowns have been more or less owned by the defenses, and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Utah thrived offensively in Pac-12 play last season and its season culminated with a 26-24 Bowl win over Indiana. But the Utes are ushering in some new faces on offense, with sophomore Tyler Huntley taking over under center after throwing just seven passes last season. They'll be up against a formidable BYU defense that saw its play overshadowed by a no-show from the offense against LSU last week (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'm not sure we'll see the Cougars offense accomplish much more in this one. QB Tanner Mangum is certainly no Taysom Hill, as we've seen through two games in which BYU has scored a grand total of 20 points. Mangum is capable of playing better, as we saw during the 2015-16 season, but doesn't have a wealth of talent around him. I expect the Utes defense to hold its own against the Cougars here. Familiarity lends itself to a low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-09-17 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State OVER 64 | 14-33 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Penn State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Penn State looked the part of a national title contender last week, albeit against a weak opponent in Akron. The Nittany Lions scored at will, jumping ahead 35-0 before halftime and the defense took care of the rest. They were able to take their foot off the gas in the second half of that game, but still moved the football with ease. I don’t expect them to face much resistance from the Pitt defense this week, but I also don’t believe this will be a cakewalk. Pitt didn’t put its best foot forward last week, but still managed to come away with an overtime win over a good FCS squad in Youngstown State. The Panthers never really got rolling offensively in that game, but now that QB Max Browne has a game under his belt running the offense, I expect him to be better. While there has been plenty of turnover from last year’s veteran squad, Browne still has plenty of talent to work with at wide receiver. Pitt is accustomed to getting involved in shootouts after a wild 2016 campaign and while the Panthers won’t be able to stay within arm’s length of the Nittany Lions here, I do believe they can make things somewhat interesting, which lends itself to a play on the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-17 | Oklahoma State v. South Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. The Cowboys appeared to be in midseason form in last week's 59-24 season opening rout of Tulsa. I'm not sure their offense will enjoy the same success as they hit the road this week, however, noting that they put up a whopping 38 points in the first half of last week's game. I expect South Alabama to take advantage of a rare primetime showcase against a big conference opponent and at least offer some resistance with a defense that boasts some experience and talent. After getting railroaded by Ole Miss last week, the Jaguars should respond favorably here. In order to get a total in this point range, it generally takes two offenses to produce at a high level. I'm just not sure the Jaguars will be able to get anything going against a physical Cowboys defense that is used to playing against elite offensive talent. After allowing 17 points in the second quarter last week against Tulsa, I expect Oklahoma State to keep its guard up here and not suffer much of a letdown defensively. That helps keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech OVER 55 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams will be ushering in new starting quarterbacks to open the 2017 campaign I'm not expecting either offense to miss a beat. Note that the Vols posted a 9-4 o/u mark last season. Dual-threat QB Josh Dobbs has moved on to the NFL but in what should be a run-heavy offensive attack, I'm not all that concerned with a new face under center. The same goes for the Yellow Jackets as they rely heavily on their run game in an option-based attack. A key here is the strength of both offensive lines, helping ease any growing pains under center. On the fast track in Atlanta, I'm looking for both teams to score points in bunches. We're dealing with a high posted total for a reason here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and LSU at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. College football games in domed stadiums always seem to draw in plenty of 'over' bettors. On the 'fast track' the common line of thinking is that the offenses will ultimately take over. I'm not sure that will be the case in this matchup between two excellent defensive squads, however. No Taysom Hill. No Jamaal Williams. Of course, that's not the entire story for BYU heading into this season, but it's a strong narrative for sure. Last week we saw the Cougars defeat FCS squad Portland State by a 20-6 score. QB Tanner Mangum completed only 16-of-27 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown. Note that BYU was held scoreless for the entire third quarter in that game and managed only a pair of field goals in the second half. Things certainly won't get any easier against LSU. On the flip side, I do expect BYU to hold its own defensively against the Tigers. LSU had a few offensive explosions last season, but more commonly we saw it struggle to string together fruitful offensive drives, particularly in the early stages of the season. I don't believe we'll see the Tigers come out firing on all cylinders here. Yes, the Cougars will be stepping up in class, but they've proved before they can hang with the big boys. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 66 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 8 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'under' cash in eight of the last nine meetings in this rivalry and I look for that trend to continue on Friday night. Colorado State was involved in a wild 58-27 victory over Oregon State last week but don't count on it facing such little resistance against the rival Buffaloes here. Yes, Colorado loses the bulk of its talent from last year's defense but this is a well-coached squad that has enjoyed success recently, and I'm confident it still rises to the occasion defensively, even against a Colorado State squad that already has a game under its belt. Colorado has been an 'under' squad over the last couple of years, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Note that in the Rams 58-point outburst last week, they were handed five turnovers by the Oregon State offense. I'm confident we'll see the Buffs' take a more careful approach with the football. This could turn out to be a shootout but given how high the posted total is, I'm not sure it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana UNDER 58 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Indiana at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Thursday night. Indiana has had a nightmarish time trying to slow down the Buckeyes over the years but I believe the time is right for the Hoosiers to at least keep things interesting in the 2017 season opener, and it all starts with keeping the Ohio State offense at bay. Last year's Hoosiers squad was a little different. They didn't get involved in as many wild shootouts and that served them well as they reached a Bowl game and nearly took down a good Utah squad, ultimately falling by a 26-24 score. Indiana returns nine starters on defense this year and I believe it is well-positioned to at least get a few more stops than it did in last year's 38-17 drubbing at the hands of the Buckeyes. Of course, Ohio State is one of the strongest teams not only in the Big Ten, but in the nation. It should only be a matter of time before the Buckeyes impose their will on the Hoosiers, especially on the defensive side of the football. We did see Ohio State's offense stagnate at times last year and I believe we see a similar story unfold as the season begins on Thursday. Last year's matchup totaled 55 points - the second straight 'under' result in this series. We're dealing with a slightly lower total as a result, but I believe the move is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass OVER 62 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and UMass at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks between the Rainbow Warriors and Minutemen in Saturday's season opener. That's not a real stretch as these two teams combined to score 86 points in last year's meeting in Hawaii - a game the Warriors won by a 46-40 score. Both teams return plenty of talent on offense. While both also return pieces from last year's defenses, I'm not so sure that's a good thing. Yes, Hawaii managed to win a Bowl game last year, but still gave up 35 points against Middle Tennessee in the process. UMass couldn't stop anyone, allowing 52, 51 and 46 points over its final three contests. To put it simply, this has the makings of a shootout and we're dealing with a reasonable total as far as I'm concerned. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State UNDER 60 | 52-49 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Penn State at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the Rose Bowl. Simply put, I believe this total is inflated based on Penn State's high-scoring results during the regular season, combined with the way USC closed out the regular campaign. USC put up big numbers offensively this season, but that was at the expense of a relatively weak Pac-12 field as far as I'm concerned. Meanwhile, Penn State surprisingly lit up the scoreboard on a weekly basis, but I can't help but think back to the Nittany Lions narrow 24-21 win over Ohio State earlier in the campaign. I expect this one to play out similarly. Both teams are known for their offense, but the two defenses also came up big time and time again over the course of the season. We're dealing with a lofty total here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson UNDER 59 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Clemson at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in this college football playoff semi-final matchup. This is the highest total in a game involving Ohio State since early October. I don't believe it's warranted. Of course, Clemson comes into this one riding a four-game 'over' streak. That certainly plays a factor in this lofty total. Both teams are capable of scoring points in bunches but both defenses are also talented and capable of stepping up in this all-or-nothing affair. Note that the Tigers 4-0 'over' run only brings them to 7-6 on the season in terms of an o/u record. The Buckeyes on the other hand have posted a 6-6 o/u mark. As long as the winner stays in the low-30s in this one we should be in good shape to cash our ticket. That's a solid proposition in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Alabama at 3 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in the first of two college football playoff semi-final matchups on Saturday. Last year, Alabama rolled to a 38-0 shutout victory over Michigan State. I don't expect the Crimson Tide to pitch another shutout this time around, however. The issue for Washington is that it played in a Pac-12 conference that didn't exactly enjoy a banner year, and still gave up its share of points. It will certainly be in tough against an Alabama squad that can score touchdowns on both sides of the football. On the flip side, the Crimson Tide are 'only' favored by two touchdowns. The oddsmakers believe that the Huskies have a puncher's chance of keeping up in this game. One thing is for sure, Washington can't win this game if it turns into a defensive slugfest. I'm expecting plenty of offense. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-30-16 | North Carolina v. Stanford UNDER 54 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and North Carolina at 2 pm et on Friday. The big news leading up to this one was the decision by Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey to sit out. Often times, we'll see teams rally around absences in Bowl games but I'm not convinced that's how this one will play out. Stanford does possess a quality defense and as a result of that, the Cardinal posted a 5-7 o/u record over the course of the regular season. Note that North Carolina posted a 4-8 o/u mark. The Tar Heels didn't have the same explosive offense we've seen in years' past, at least not as the season went on. The 'under' cashed in seven of their last eight contests. We're dealing with a reasonably high total here, but that's largely due to Stanford's 3-0 'over' streak heading in. With Christian McCaffrey out, this is a different game - likely a competitive one, but I don't believe it goes 'over' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Pinstripe Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Pitt didn't have much luck stopping the opposition during the regular season but the oddsmakers are giving the Panthers a puncher's chance in this one. I don't expect to see all that different of a story unfold, however. Northwestern turned in a few strong defensive showings, but there was more bad than good over the course of the season. I certainly don't anticipate seeing the Wildcats slowing a Panthers offense that can score points in a hurry. The 'over' went 11-1 in all games involving the Panthers this season. Look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |