Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Pittsburgh (11-2) has had this date circled since the league office put out the schedule as they are looking to avenge last year’s 36-17 loss in New England in the AFC Championship Game. But the timing for their opportunity for revenge could not be worse. For starters, the Steelers have gutted through two very difficult games against AFC North rivals. After the their very physical game against the Bengals two weeks ago, Pittsburgh rallied from an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to eke out a 39-38 victory over Baltimore. Recovering from this stretch is difficult enough. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last fifteen games after facing their arch rival in the Ravens, Pittsburgh has lost eight of these games straight-up. The mental and physical toll of those two games will be difficult to sustain now — especially with all the pressure this team feels to step up for this game given the words of head coach Mike Tomlin over the last few weeks. A big emotional letdown may happen for this team. While they have won eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning eight of their last ten games. Furthermore, this Steelers’ defense is far from at full strength. The season-ending injury to Ryan Shazier takes away their best defender of short and intermediate routes that this Patriots team absolutely thrives in with tight end Rob Gronkowski leading the way. In the seven quarters this team has played since losing Shazier in the Bengals game, Pittsburgh has allowed 48 points and 654 yards. Even worse, the Steelers have allowed their opponent to score a touchdown in all six of their Red Zone appearances since that Shazier injury — as opposed to not allowing a TD in thirteen of their previous twenty-five Red Zone defensive situations. Pittsburgh is also missing cornerback Joe Haden with his broken fibula who was their best cover man in their secondary. Over their last three games without Haden, the Steelers defense has allowed 28.7 PPG along with 357.7 total YPG. Haden is listed as questionable for this game but is not likely to be close to 100% even if takes the field which will leave the Pittsburgh pass defense still vulnerable after Joe Flacco torched them for 269 yards and a 7.69 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Pittsburgh has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.09 and 6.77 Yards-Per-Play without Haden and Shazier (for all but one quarter) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing each of their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. On offense, Big Ben Roethlisberger did complete 44 of 66 passes for 506 yards against the Ravens last week — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have not covered the point spread in their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) plus (or minus) the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Kansas City (7-6) was once the toast of the league early in the season when they rattled off five straight victories — and we were bearish on them then. But now most bettors have jumped off the ole bandwagon as they have lost six of their last eight games while also only covering the point spread twice over those last eight contests. But that is an overreaction as well — and this Chiefs team should be very feisty in this rare situation where they are a home underdog. To make things even saltier for this Kansas City team, they are underdogs at home to a Chargers team that they have defeated seven straight times. I like what I saw with this Kansas City team last week where they defeated the Raiders by a 26-15 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage helped the Chiefs get back to their winning ways — perhaps the entire team responded to the message head coach Andy Reid sent when he suspended starting cornerback Marcus Peters for losing control the previous week when he tossed an official’s penalty flag into the crowd. Rookie Kareem Hunt broke out of his slump by rushing the ball 25 times for 116 yards while adding another 22 yards in the air. The Chiefs rushed for 165 yards against the Raiders which helped them control the clock for 36:40 minutes — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. KC held Oakland to just 70 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chiefs ave covered the point spread in 5 straight games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 9 games against AFC West opponents, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 8 times. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank. TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank. |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (303) and the Detroit Lions (304). Detroit (7-6) enters this game coming off their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay last week in a pick ‘em game. QB Matthew Stafford was outstanding in that contest as he completed 36 of 44 passes for 381 yards — but the Lions have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But despite that nice offensive effort, Detroit is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games. One of the concerns for the Lions is their inability to run the football as they rank last in the league by averaging only 76.3 rushing YPG. Over their last four games, Detroit has not rushed for more than 78 yards — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in four straight games. On the other side of the football, the Lions allowed 267 passing yards to the Bucs in that victory — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts UNDER 40.5 | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Indianapolis Colts (302). Denver (4-9) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 23-0 shutout win over the Jets as a 1-point home underdog. The Broncos held the Jets to just 100 yards of offense. Denver has been a disaster on offense as they have not been able to develop a quarterback between Trevor Siemian, Payton Lynch and Brock Osweiler — but the Broncos defense remains outstanding. Despite little help on offense in staying off the field, the Denver defense remains number one in the league by holding their opponents to just 280.5 total YPG — and they rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense (191.1 passing YPG) and 4th in the league in rushing defense (89.5 rushing YPG). The Broncos held the Jets to just 41 passing yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Denver has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Denver has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 28 games as the favorite, the Broncos have played 19 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (133) and the Miami Dolphins (134). New England (10-2) enters this game coming off their 23-3 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The Patriots have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England generated 435 yards of offense in that contest with the Bills — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski in this game which takes away Tom Brady’s security blanket. Brady’s numbers are markedly better with Gronkowski on the field. In his career, Brady completes 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 8.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt with a 5.29:1 touchdown to interception ration and a QB Rating of 79. But in games without Gronkowski, Brady sees those numbers drop to a 62% completion percentage with a 7.0 YPA mark and a 2.95:1 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 63. Furthermore, South Beach has not been Brady’s favorite place to play as the Patriots are scoring just 23.8 PPG in his fifteen starts in Miami while Brady has gotten sacked 32 times while throwing 13 interceptions. New England has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, New England has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +6 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 44-20 win over Detroit last Sunday. This Ravens team is playing with confidence behind an outstanding defense and an improving offense that is finding themselves after being ravaged with injuries to start the season. Joe Flacco completed 23 of 36 passes against the Lions for 269 yards with two TD passes to lead the offense for 370 total yards. Baltimore is then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens defense has allowed only 400 yards only once this season — and that was their game in London with those unique travel situations. Baltimore will be playing their revenge on their minds after losing by a 26-9 score at home to the Steelers back on October 1st. Flacco has won two of his last three starts in Pittsburgh while leading his team to score 80 combined points in that contest. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC North opponents. The Ravens are also 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS. |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). There will be plenty of emotion in the Meadowlands this afternoon as the proverbial Prodigal Son in Eli Manning returns to the starting lineup in a stadium that will be full of Eli jerseys in the wake of the firing of Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo along with their general manager Jerry Reese. New York (2-10) has played two straight games on the road — as well as three of their last four contests. That long game at home was an upset win over the Chiefs. I look for this team to play inspired football under this situation — especially for interim head coach Steve Spagnola who represents Big Blue as the defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl Championship with Manning under center. This also is an opportunity for this team to play spoiler against the Cowboys while avenging a 19-3 loss in Dallas back on September 10th. The Giants look to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Oakland last week as a 10-point underdog. New York rushed for only 65 yards in that game after managing just 84 rushing yards in Washington the week before. But the Giants are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 tams after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Additionally, New York scored only 7 points in the first half of their game with the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the underdog. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Atlanta (7-5) faces a must-win situation as they find themselves outside the NFC Playoff picture after their 14-9 upset loss as a 2-point favorite to Minnesota on Sunday. But this Falcons team also had a 7-5 record at this point last season — and they, of course, went on to play in the Super Bowl. A tough strength of schedule has contributed to their disappointing results so far relative to their sky-high expectations. Atlanta has four NFC South opponents remaining to close out their schedule — so they still likely control their own destiny. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against fellow NFC South foes. Furthermore, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of these games. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) and the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Cincinnati (5-6) exploded for 30 points last week with their 30-16 victory over the winless Bengals as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bengals generated 405 yards of offense which was far above their league-bottom 274.3 total YPG average this season. Cincinnati is scoring only 18.1 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. One of the league’s worst offensive lines is the biggest culprit for these problems on offense and helps to explain why they are 26th in the NFL with the pass (198.6 passing YPG) and last in the league with the run (75.6 rushing YPG). The Bengals have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight up victory. The Cincinnati defense has been solid this season — despite being on the field too much given their anemic offense. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL by allowing just 19.5 PPG. Cincy did give up 361 yards last week — but they have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Bengals have played 12 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (377) and the Seattle Seahawks (378). Philadelphia (10-1) has won nine straight games with their 31-3 win over Chicago last week. The Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders right now — they generated 420 yards of offense against an underrated Bears defense. Philadelphia has then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four of their last five road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total in the month of December. And in their last 11 games played on field turf, Philadelphia has played 9 of these games Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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12-03-17 | Colts +10 v. Jaguars | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (363) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (364). Indianapolis (3-8) looks to avenge a 27-0 shutout loss at home to these Jaguars back on October 22nd. The Colts have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns to their opponent. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns against their opponents. Furthermore, the Colts have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where they failed to score more than 9 points — and this includes covering their last three games in that situation. Indianapolis has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 20-16 loss to Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog. The Colts have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in a decisive 32 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Indy goes back on the road — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 47 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Dallas (5-6) has fallen on hard times after Ezekiel Elliott began serving his six-game suspension as they ave lost three straight games after their 28-6 loss to the Chargers last Thursday on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ offense has been a complete disaster as they have scored only a combined 22 points while failing to reach double-digits in all three of those games. Given that, it might be very tempting to take the Under — but this is a good situation to take the contrarian play with the Over. I do expect the Dallas’ offense behind QB Dak Prescott to be much better with a full week of practice under their belts. Remember, the Elliott injury came at the very worst time in terms of the schedule with the Cowboys playing three games over an twelve day period. They simply did not have much time to address the problems with the offense after that Falcons game with the Giants coming to town just four days later. Furthermore, left tackle Tyron Smith has had a full week to getting healthier after the Dallas offense spent the entire first-half in their game last Thursday avoiding running the ball to his side. But even if the Cowboys’ offense remains limited without Elliott, the defense presents another set of problems for this team. The Dallas defense has surrendered 92 combined points over their last three games. At home this season, the Cowboys are allowing 25.8 PPG along with 368.0 total YPG. Additionally, Dallas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and linebacker Sean Lee has been declared out for this game once again this week. |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 39 | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (275) and the Baltimore Ravens (276). Baltimore (5-5) pitched their third shutout of the season — and second in their last three games — with their 23-0 win at Green Bay last Sunday. The strong Ravens’ defense has facilitated the Total being set at a low number below 40 (as of this writing) — so lets attack that Over. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. And while this Baltimore offense looks anemic with their 21.3 PPG scoring mark which is 18th in the league, they are getting better on that side of the ball as they get healthier after suffering from a barrage of injuries. In their last three games, the Ravens are scoring 27.7 PPG while still not getting very aggressive with their play-calling with their two of those games being blowout shutouts. Their close game in their last three games was a 23-20 loss at Tennessee in a game where Joe Flacco aired the football out 53 times for 268 passing yards. Those are Over numbers. Moving forward, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. |
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11-26-17 | Packers +14 v. Steelers | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). These are too many points to pass up in this situation — even with Aaron Rodgers not playing for the Packers. Pittsburgh (8-2) finally demonstrated the vast potential that many pundits feel they possess back on November 16th when they crushed the Colts by a 40-17 score as 7-point favorites. Yet they only outgained Indianapolis by 27 yards. It was a +4 net turnover margin that helped the Steelers dominate that game. But Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when installed as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of November. |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (270) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (269). Jacksonville (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 19-7 win in Cleveland last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread victory. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Defense has been leading the way for this team — they held the Browns to only 184 yards of offense. But the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents. 25* NFL Game of the Month with Arizona plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |