Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-28-15 | Alabama v. Auburn +14.5 | 29-13 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 30 m | Show | |
Auburn +14.5 2.2* play I’ll take War Eagle in this game they have nothing to lose in this game. Gus Malzahn one of the genius offensive guys in football has given Alabama headaches in years past. Alabama can dominate the trenches on paper, but Auburn seems to be playing its best football right now. They have rushed for over 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games, and have held 4 straight opponents under 200 yards. I look for that improvement, and their run defense against Georgia despite a losing effort was really impressive. This team has been really close in a lot of games, and I wouldn’t be surprised for them to hold this game close. For one thing both of these offenses are one dimensional, and I don’t see a lot of points unless they go up tempo at points, but overall I think Auburn will be in striking distance. The line is huge based on Alabama’s dominance on the road this season, and Auburn’s inconsistent play, but I think that just gives us tremendous value. |
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11-28-15 | Clemson v. South Carolina +17.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 62 h 10 m | Show |
South Carolina +17.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Never underestimate a team in a rivalry game. We will see what the Gamecocks have left in 2015, this is their bowl game. Clemson should already be looking at North Carolina, as South Carolina just lost to Citadel, but before that they beat Vanderbil 19-10,and lost to Texas A&M, Florida and Tennessee by a combined 20 points. They have to cover 17.5 in their own building, and I think they can give Clemson quite the scare here. I think South Carolina can put up some points here, and last week meant absolutely nothing to them, but it probably gave us a few more points to work with if nothing else. I’m probably biased towards the SEC, but the ACC is far weaker, and South Carolina faced teams like LSU, Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Tennessee meanwhile Clemson got games in the same category against Notre Dame, and Florida State. South Carolina at home has had a very good defense, they have allowed just 3 passing TD’s to 8 interceptions. They held North Carolina’s high flying offense in check. North Carolina is fairly similar and they held Marqise Williams to 9 yards rushing, and 1 TD and 3 interceptions. Clemson has also struggled on the road quite a bit winning by just 3 at Louisville, giving up 41 to NC State, losing by 10 to Syracuse, and most are expect an epic blowout, but Clemson really does not need that to enhance their resume they just need to simply win their final 2 games. This is an in state rivalry game and we have seen South Carolina step up and play competitive games against good competition before. I don’t quite see the value on the money line at +575 FRIDAY'S TEASER BONUS PLAY Boise State -1.5 Teaser 5.5* MAX PLAY This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense. San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season. Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008. What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry. The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesn’t turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily. San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference. San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on. I don’t see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, it’s not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 let’s take advantage of these factors and take Boise State. Nebraska +8 Teaser I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset. A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa. First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose. They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so it’s hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesn’t give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape. Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasn’t been challenged. They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa. Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff. Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game. I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins. If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game. Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff. |
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11-27-15 | Navy -3.5 v. Houston | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Navy -3.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD Granted we would have been getting better line value here with Navy if Houston had won last week against Houston. I understand Greg Ward didn’t really play, and he should be healthy for this game, but he’s just not 100% and I would play Navy even with a 100% Ward. I trust a disciplined Navy defense over Houston who hasn’t faced anyone any day of the week. The red flags have definitely popped up over the last 3 weeks with Houston winning by 3, 1, and losing by 3 this past week. They have definitely been lucky in their wins, and have relied largely on forcing turnovers which won’t cut it against Navy who has just 6 turnovers on the year. The blueprint has been shown on how to beat Houston, and I don’t think Houston’s defense which is extremely misleading has enough time to prepare for a triple option attack, arguably one of the best triple action attacks we have seen in years led by Keenan Reynolds. Reynolds leads this team, and Navy is ranked 6th in yards per carry. Both Uconn and Memphis ran the ball 43, and 54 times against Houston with decent success and they are ranked 84th and 106th. Houston has not allowed a team to rush for over 4 yards per carry, but… Fact, Houston has faced an average rushing offense ranked 91st and just 2 team sin top 50 at 43 and 48. Navy should be able to control this game like they have in every game this year besides Notre Dame. Navy has the better defense here with less to prepare for on the short week. I respect Houston’s head coach Tom Herman, but he’s gotten by this season with an easy schedule. Houston’s rushing offense has shown issues in their last 2 days and I don’t think they can just flip the switch vs. Navy, an extremely disciplined team that knows how to stop the run ranking 31st in the country. Houston has rushed for 96, and 110 the last 2 weeks showing more vulnerabilities that a team like Navy can easily take advantage of. Looking at the conference stats between these two. Navy has the advantage in rushing offense, and slight edge in rushing defense based on strength of schedule which is ranked 31st compared to Houston at 112th. Passing offense efficiency of 162 in conference play with no turnovers to Houston at 136 with 5 turnovers. Passing defense Houston edge, but again SOS comes into play and they don’t even have that big of an advantage 133 to 128. Navy penalized exactly 3 less times per game in conference play at 2.9. Navy converting on third downs 61% compared to Houston at 48.21%, Again advantage Houston slightly on 3rd down defense 39.29% compared to 42.5% but they are worse at home. Red Zone offense edge to Navy at 77% TD’s on 35 attempts in conference play, 72.7% for Houston on 33 attempts. Houston’s red zone defense has been an issue at times and has allowed 70% conversions to Navy’s 65%. 4th down’s could be the biggest difference in this game, Houston has stopped them, but hasn’t faced a team that attempts and converts like Navy with 90% success rate. Houston is 3-10, and Navy has held opponents to 31% conversions on 4th downs. I think the type of preparation you have to do for a Navy game is washed out by the fact that Houston has home field advantage. We saw Houston go into Memphis and win 45-20, we saw Memphis nearly beat Houston 2 weeks ago. Navy knows what is at stake, and these players can put their signature on this program’s history. I don’t see them losing this game without turning the ball over 2 times and they just don’t do that. |
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11-26-15 | Texas Tech v. Texas -1.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -101 | 44 h 8 m | Show | |
Texas -1 -105 3.5* play I like the Longhorns here, and would like them even larger if they were healthier at RB, but I don’t think it matters against Texas Tech. Texas has had a good rushing attack all season with Heard at QB throwing defenses off, and Texas Tech is among one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. Texas has more to play for, and I think these players step up to keep their bowl hopes alive with Baylor on deck. Texas has shown abilities to score a lot of points this season against bad defenses, and they have played much better at home. In reality I don’t like either coach here, but Kingsbury has not shown me anything than an ability to run his mouth. He’s 0-3 from last year off extra rest, he typically has an easier schedule, and he’s lost in convincing fashion the last two years against Texas and that’s because Texas has been able to run the ball with consistency. Texas becomes a hard team to beat if you put them in that situation, and they have 5.48 yards per carry at home this season, and have rushed for 5.78 in their wins vs. 4.25 in their loses. I don’t know that Tech has that ability to stop Texas offense with extra prep time. I really doubt it and I have more faith in Texas defense to stop Tech’s offense for a couple of reasons. Texas has played better defense overall and has hold conference opponents to 3.87 yards per carry. They also possess something that most Big 12 teams don’t, a pass rush ranking top 10. Only Oklahoma can claim that. Actually a good pass rush is what Texas Tech struggles against going just 2-6 straight up in the Kingsbury era. Some other things popped out to me when looking at this match up other than the fact that the general public is so far down on Texas right now. Texas has actually played better at home, better in conference play. Tech’s offense and defense have played worse, their red zone defense and 3rd down defense in conference play and on the road are very concerning, they turn the ball over too much, their special teams is 51 points worse than Texas from an efficiency perspective, and they are penalized 1.5x more per conference game. BOISE -1.5 / NEBRASKA +8 5.5* TEASER OF THE WEEK |
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11-24-15 | Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Ball State +23 3.3* play I really like Ball State here tonight back at home, after not covering the spread 2 weeks in a row. They've given up 48 and 54 points on the road the last two weeks, so the perception is and should be bad defense, against better offense, but Bowling Green has absolutely nothing to play for here. Bowling Green is already in the MAC Championship and have a history of laying down when they don't have much to play for. I think it's more important for them to rest their players than to beat Ball State. Ball State has room for optimism too, this is a much better team at home, they also have a lot to look forward to with their QB Riley Neal, who even played well at Ohio last week in the losing effort. It's this team's last home game, and I could easily see Ball State sticking around late in this one. |
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11-21-15 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State | 45-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State pk 2.2* play / Under 78 3.3* play Mike Gundy is a terrific coach, and definitely the better coach in this match up. Oklahoma State enjoys one of the best home field advantages in all of football going 26-5 since 2011 here, and even better 23-1 when they are favored, which some books have Oklahoma State favored, and in those 24 games they have out performed the spread by an average of 6 points. Baylor has been notorious for their easy schedules early, and have gone 6-14 straight up in their last 20 November road games. They scored just 17 points here in 2013 coming in with an undefeated record at the time. The offense has not clicked under Stidham despite his great stats and the rushing offense has been halted in the last two games now that they are playing defenses with a pulse. Stidham not 100% for this game (back), but will likely play, and has his hands full against an Oklahoma State team that is allowing 3.3 ypc on the ground, has 15 interceptions, and a top 10 pass rush. Oklahoma, a team with a top 10 pass rush gave Baylor all sorts of issues as Stidham was constantly under pressure. Look for Emanuel Ogbah to help force a turnover that could change the game. I think the total is a bit high here as well considering those facts, and the game is calling for 22mph winds, which typically impacts the defenses, I may by back on the over if this line moves down to 71 or 72, and the weather clears up a bit, but at this number I really like the under to hit, and I like Oklahoma State who are 13-3 SU & ATS in their last 16 meetings with Baylor, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall in the month of November. There is a bit of value here with Oklahoma State after they struggled against Iowa State last week which was to be expected. Iowa State is a well-coached team under Paul Rhoads, like a poor man’s Bill Snyder. |
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11-21-15 | Northwestern +10 v. Wisconsin | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 40 h 60 m | Show | |
Northwestern +10 2.2* play The total in this game is 40, and we get 10 points to work with a dominant defense against an offense that has not been very good at all. Typically Wisconsin can run the ball with the best of teams, but they are one of the worst, and they haven’t played a lot of good run defenses. I don’t see anything changing that at this point in the season as this team has just two 200+ yard rushing games and those came against Hawaii and Rutgers. Wisconsin has played just two teams in the top 25 in defense and scored 17, and 6 points, Northwestern is ranked 9th in yards per play allowed. These two teams look like a mirror of each other. Both predicated on their defense, and running the ball, and ironically Northwestern has run the ball better 4.03 YPC in conference play vs. better defenses – they have faced 5 top 25 defenses, Wisconsin just 1 in conference play. Wisconsin has averaged just 3.56 ypc in conference play. Both pass defenses are excellent allowing 5 passing TD’s on the season, so scoring is going to be at a premium here. It will be a little windy as well so I give the edge to Northwestern here with a mobile QB. Joel Stave has not played well vs. this defense throwing 5 interceptions, and he’s faced 3 top 35 passing defenses this year and has not played well 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s in 3 games. Northwestern 7th in passing defense for opposing QB rating. Granted Northwestern hasn’t really faced any QB’s that can bomb it away, but Stave struggled vs. Rutgers (117th passing defense), and Maryland (83rd). Northwestern also has an edge in special teams with Soloman Vault. I get that Wisconsin is off a bye here and has a very good defense, but Northwestern is well coached by Fitzgerald. They come off a 3 turnover game last week, and have bounced back twice with 0 turnovers in their next game. I give them a lot of credit here, and I think they’ll be competitive |
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11-21-15 | USC +4.5 v. Oregon | Top | 28-48 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
USC +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD This is a worse match up for Oregon on Saturday, because USC is better at limiting big plays than Stanford is ranking 22nd. Oregon who relies on the run also struggles to win games against top 30 run defenses which USC is from a YPC perspective. Oregon lost to Utah, lost to Michigan State, and only beat Washington by 6, but USC far more capable on offense than Washington is that’s for sure, and last I looked this Oregon defense is still pretty awful, and USC has a much more balanced offense than Stanford does. Oregon also coming into this game off 4 straight covers and Vegas has not been close. Oregon has covered the spread by 10.5, 12.5, 8.5, and 8.5. USC coming off back to back loses ATS of 14 and 11, so Vegas definitely adjusted this line, but on paper USC should win this game from a statistical perspective. USC has the edge here in other situational scenarios given that they have an extra day to prepare, Oregon off a huge emotional win, and in reality they got lucky. They knock Stanford out of the playoff discussion, and I think that was satisfying enough. It’s a long shot for them to compete for the division, while USC is in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship. This game means much more to USC. Oregon’s defense was pretty bad last game, and was lucky with forcing 3 turnovers, 2 of which came on bad center to QB exchanges while Stanford was looking to score. That rarely happens, and even when it does the offense typically recovers, but Oregon got extremely lucky and now we are benefiting with this line. USC simply does not turn the ball over, only 9 on the year. I’m a bit concerned about the injuries USC has on defense, but I think they should be able to do whatever they want on defense, Oregon is going to have to score on longer methodical drives than they are comfortable with, and that typically results in mistakes from this team. Give me the points with USC losing a lot of public backers the past few weeks. 3 weeks ago USC would have been favored, and this team has played extremely well on the road, and probably should have beaten Notre Dame. I’ll ignore their crummy performance against Colorado last week. |
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11-21-15 | Illinois +5 v. Minnesota | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 49 m | Show | |
ILLINOIS +5 3.3* play These two teams are very similar, poor on offense, ranked similarly on defense, and they have faced similar strength of schedules although Illinois has played a bit better in my opinion. I believe this line should be more like 3 points, but recent bias has this line higher, because Minnesota has been extremely competitive in their last 3 games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa arguably the 3 best Big 10 teams. I just do not trust their ability to get up for this game, along with the fact that Minnesota is extremely banged up right now, the defensive line, the offensive line, the secondary all have so many question marks going into this game. If you are a casual fan you would make a few assumptions about this game including the fact that Minnesota can run the ball, Minnesota has the better defense, and Illinois is below average on defense, but that’s actually not true and it favors Illinois in this match up, because they have the better defense, they have the better running game, and Minnesota has struggled to run the ball ranking 102nd in the nation. In fact Illinois is ranked 9th overall in defense, 41st in rush and 12th in pass in S&P ratings. Minnesota has been forced to pass so much this year and they’ve done okay, but just 12 passing TD’s on 334 attempts. This team struggles big time when they get to the red zone, and they’ll face a relentless front 7 out of Illinois that is hungry to get to a bowl game. Looking at other stats in this game you have to really like Illinois who have the edge in third down defense, red zone offense, red zone defense by a wide margin, turnover margin by 7, penalties, special teams, and tackle for a loss margin. Again they are coming off a 28-3 loss to Ohio State, and not getting much credit, but I think we are about to see Ohio State turn it into high gear, and they had JT Barrett on his heals the entire game. I truly expect Illinois to actually win this game on the road. I don’t know that Minnesota can get up for a team like Illinois after playing 4 marquee games in a row. TEASER OF THE WEEK - 4.4* PLAY - DUKE +8.5 / KANSAS STATE PK DUKE +8.5 TEASER The value is definitely here on Duke after losing ATS in their last 3 games by 13, 29, and 15.5, and they now get a match up I believe they can handle, and they made a big change kicking three guys off the team which should be a difference maker. Virginia on the other hand now 3-7, can’t get to a bowl, but have covered 4 games in a row, and they have Virginia Tech next week who they have lost to 11 times. Mike London definitely not motivated here in my opinion, but will be looking towards that game. The coaching edge here with David Cutcliffe is enormous in my opinion, and I think Duke gets back to Duke football. Virginia’s defense is not very good particularly against the run, and I think Dukes rushing offense will get some nice runs to control this game. To beat Duke big you have to be able to stop the pass, and pass the ball, and that’s not Virginia’s game at all. Yes Matt Johns can put up yards, but he’s been a turnover machine with 15 interceptions this Virginia team has a -9 turnover margin on the season. Their pass defense has allowed a 156 QB rating which is good news to whomever plays QB for Duke. They missed Thomas Sirk last week, and I think he will play in this game. Duke enjoys the advantage in 3rd down offense, and defense, and has +15 trips inside the red zone to Virginia’s -13 trips. They have a significant edge I special teams, and are +32 in tackles for loss. Everyone is so low on Duke right now and it’s the exact time I like to jump in and back a team. I like them in a teaser considering in Virginia’s 3 wins they have only won by 6 and no more. KANSAS ST PK TEASER Along with Duke I will be teasing Kansas State to just win the game. I feel we have great value here given the fact that Kansas State is still alive for a bowl game at 3-6 with 3 games left, including games against Kansas, and West Virginia who they will close out the season against at home. Iowa State at 3-7 now, and is in a huge hang over spot after having undefeated Oklahoma State on the ropes. Iowa State’s defense is just not very good, and it’s exactly what Kansas State needs to break their 6 game losing streak. They are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and this is just the 4th time they have been favored they have won every other game. Kansas State is 21-4 in their history against Iowa State, and I believe Bill Snyder is the better coach, and will have his team ready. He’s already admitted that he has each player searching, and looking over his 16 goals, and I just think that’s Snyder being a great coach, being able to get the best out of every athlete. He hasn’t had the talent that he has had in years past yet he’s still had this team fighting in games against TCU and Baylor. I look for this team to fight to get to 5 wins with a shot at a 6th against West Virginia, but it starts this week. |
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11-21-15 | Rutgers -4.5 v. Army | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show | |
Rutgers -4.5 2.2* play 12pm I like Rutgers here as a road favorite this team is geared up and pumped up to be playing the triple option according to Kyle Flood. Rutgers is 12-2 since 2001 vs. triple option teams, and this defense has played better vs. the run than last year when they allowed 5.53 ypc on the season, but they were able to hold Navy, a much more polished version of this offense to a season low 171 yards, and they did not have an extra week of practice. The value is on Rutgers in my opinion this team is not as bad as they have looked losing their last 4 in a row SU & ATS, losing ATS by 9.5, 9, 30, and 21. I think they bounce back with a win ATS here. Rutgers gets a break here in the defense they face, and when they are not playing a top tier defense this offense can hum a little bit. Army ranked 128th in pass defense, 68th in run defense, and the last 4 games Rutgers has faced 4 teams in the top 22 in run defense, and 3 of the 4 were ranked top 5 in pass defense, yes you got that right they faced the best pass defense, 3rd, and 5th all in their last 4 games. I’m not surprised this offense has sputtered, but they have put up big numbers when going up against a pass defense like Army. If Rutgers is able to score like I think they will they won’t have an issue covering this number. Army is not going to try to kick field goals, and Rutgers is very good out of conference play on third downs. I think they will defense the triple option well, as Kyle Flood, a very good coach has challenged his team stating “this is one of the great challenges in all college football.” They did a great job last year under DC Joe Rossi, and over their last 14 where they have gone 12-2 they have held triple option offenses 46.4 yards below their season average. Army not nearly as polished as the Navy teams Rutgers has faced, and I think Rutgers hold them well under their season average of 254. When Army is held under that average they are 0-5 losing games by an average of 13.8 points. We have two things working for us in this match up, Rutgers ability to defend this triple option, and Army’s defense giving Rutgers an ability to score that they haven’t had lately. I’m all over this one. |
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11-20-15 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. South Florida | 27-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Cincinnati -1.5 3.3* play I'm going to take the Bearcats here in this situation tonight going on the road to face a South Florida team coming off their biggest win in many many years defeating the ranked Temple team and they did so in easy fashion. I had South Florida in a teaser last week and it easily cashed, but on a short week I think the Bearcats will be more ready to win this game. First of all South Florida has placed 3 top 50 offenses (Cincinnati is the best) from a yards per play perspective and has gone 0-3 against them. This is a major hang over game for South Florida, and Cincinnati clearly playing with an edge right now. They were the pre season favorite, and really if they don't turn the ball over 11 times in their 3 conference losses against Houston, Memphis, and Temple we would be having a different conversation as Cincinnati out gained Houston by 162, Temple by 261, and Memphis by 182, but lost all 3 games! South Florida is ranked 82nd in takeaways and I expect the Bearcats to take care of the ball. Nobody has stopped this offense all season and I don't see South Florida stopping it either. However, South Florida can run the ball with Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers and it's not like Cincinnati's defense has played well, it hasn't. I do see Marlon Mack on a short week with 48 carries in his last two games and I really have to wonder if he may get gassed in this game. Cinci, comes into this game with more healthy players, and really is a team that is more capable of playing well on a short week. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the value here is on the Bearcats when you consider how South Florida has covered the spread with ease the last two weeks 23.5, and 10.5. |
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11-18-15 | Central Michigan v. Kent State +8.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Kent State +8.5 2.2* play I look for Kent State to play a bit of spoiler here. There will be 20-25mph winds which definitely favors the defense for Kent State who does not allow any deep passes. Central Michigan is strictly a passing team they have had major issues running it and will again tonight. If the wind plays a major factor like I think it will this will be going under the already low total of 40 points, and 8.5 points with a very good defense is a place I want my money. I think Kent State will force some turnovers here to set themselves up in good field position as Central Michgian is -4 on the road. Good value on this line, and I expect this game to be an ugly one. |
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11-17-15 | Ball State +9 v. Ohio | 31-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Ball State +9 3.3* play Ohio is a below average team every way you look at it. This is a team that lost to Western Michigan by just as much as Ball State did, but on paper we are looking at a 6-4 team at home vs. a 3-7 team on the road. Ball State has some extra rest here which was not the case in their last game where they had just 4 days to prepare before going on the road to face Western Michigan. I don't know how they do that to these kids, and the result was Ball State missed covering the spread by 32 points. Ohio hosted the same situation last week when Kent State had to go on the road with 4 days of preparation and the result was a 21 point cover by Ohio as they won 27-0. Definitely a good spot to take Ball State with some line value for those reasons alone, but there is more. Ball State is out of the MAC West which has gone 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS against the MAC East. Take out Eastern Michigan who is 0-3 SU&ATS and you have a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS. These are not just short term trends these trends go back previous years as well. The recruiting in the MAC West is superior to what teams see out of the MAC East. While Ohio does not necessarily fit that assumption we still feel better in backing Ball State here. Ohio is an average team, and Derrius Vick is having a nice season, but he's not blowing anyone away. 10 TD to 6 INT's, a 134 QB rating, but a 113 in conference play which is a pretty significant drop. He's got just 5 TD to 8 interceptions in conference plays. He's not elite enough to take advantage of Ball State's biggest weakness which is the pass defense. Vick also has -173 rushing yards and just under 400 rushing yards with a less than 2 yards per carry. Not impressive at all. I actually like Ball State's QB a bit better. Riley Neal has 13 TD's to 3 INT's and nearly 400 yards rushing with more than a 4 yard per carry average. Ohio also worse on special teams, and are penalized 7.6 times per game compared with Ball State at 3.8. Ball State RB's have not fumbled the ball once this year just 1 of 9 FBS teams who can claim that. This team seems to be well coached, and I like the extra rest and other situations. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset considering Ohio is already in a bowl game, and has Northern Illinois next week. |
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11-14-15 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -2.5 | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
Baylor -2.5 4.4* play Let’s not get carried away with this Oklahoma team who lost to Texas, the one and only top 50 defense they have played all year. Oklahoma will be facing their stiffest task, and the only reason we have such a low spread for Baylor is the fact that Oklahoma has been covering everything Vegas has thrown at them including a 39 point spread that they covered by 16 points. They have covered their last 4 ATS by a margin of 25.25 points. Baylor comes into this game with a freshmen QB playing in just his second game, and they lost their last 2 games ATS by 13.25 points after the spread. Baylor also struggled with Kansas State last week while Oklahoma blew them out 55-0, but Oklahoma got Kansas State at the right time. Kansas State just nearly upset TCU and gave their all in that game. Kansas State got Baylor during the week, at home with their freshmen QB making his first start on the road. Actually Jarrett Stidham played exceptionally well and showed a lot of poise considering his running game did not help him out. He had a nice day completing 23/33 passes for 419 yards and 3 TD’s. Just like this is the best defense he’s going to face, this is the best offense that Oklahoma is going to face, it’s also the best defense Oklahoma is going to face. Oklahoma has put up 52+ points in each of their last 4 games, but the schedule is a joke facing the following ranked defenses from a yards per play perspective, 103, 119, 127, and 116. This is why nobody can give the Big 12 any credit and I have even been on this conference for a while because of this. Baylor however is one of the exceptions, and their defense is full of next level talent. I just think they get bored out there, but they are well aware of the implications on this game and I believe they are poised to play their best game against Oklahoma who has faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in defense and that was Texas ranked 46th in yards per play allowed and we all know how that turned out. Baylor is ranked 36th. Game of the year line before the season was 13 in favor of Baylor, and opened at 7. We are getting tremendous value here and Baylor has played Oklahoma well on defense the last few years. They haven’t been a favorite of less than a TD at home in over 3 years, and are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 despite that fact. Looking for Baylor to come away with a big impressive performance. |
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11-14-15 | BYU v. Missouri +6.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 25 m | Show |
Missouri +6.5 5.5* POD / Missouri +220 1* play Last week I played on the Tigers at home against Miss State, and it didn’t look bad at the half 14-13, but they went on to struggle in the second half, couldn’t get off the field, but there was a positive that came out of the game. The running game was excellent rushing for 200+ yards, and Missouri is 10-4-1 ATS following a performance like that in their last 15. They are also 18-7 ATS following an ATS loss, they are 2-7 ATS on the season. We could not be getting more value at the right time. I also think this team will play inspired football considering they were getting ready to boycott this game, because of the racial injustice on their campus. The President was fired and Missouri will have all their players and I think it’s pretty ironic they go up against BYU that is well known for their anti-gay policy in Prov which is part of their school code. I don’t even know if any of the players know about that, but if Gary Pinkel is smart he brings it up. Either way this team is going to be happy and inspired to get back on the field and not take anything for granted. They also need wins here to get back to a bowl game. BYU on the other hand has issues on their offensive line and a couple of guys are questionable. That’s a big problem against Missouri who is 14th in pass rush, BYU 81st in protecting their QB. They are even worse on the road and this game will be played at the Chiefs football stadium Arrowhead. Still a home game for Missouri that I expect them to win with their running game. BYU is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the road 3.9 overall similar to Miss State. BYU’s offense not nearly as good as Miss State, and they have an inexperienced QB that Missouri can force turnovers with. I may play the money line here as well, but I really like the Tigers in this match up. |
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11-14-15 | Kentucky +3.5 v. Vanderbilt | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
Kentucky +3.5 3.3* play I really like Kentucky in this spot not only are we getting value, because they haven’t been close to covering any of their last 5 games with the exception of Auburn, a game they should have covered and won, but they are coming off one of their worst performances, losing 27-3 to Georgia last week. Kentucky did not have their best offensive player in that game in Boom Williams which to me is a huge deal. He’s probably for this week and if he plays and they give him 15+ carries Kentucky will win this game. Boom Williams is the best SEC RB that nobody has heard of. He’s definitely the best RB that Vanderbilt has faced since week 2 when they faced Nick Chubb and allowed Georgia to run wild for 281 yards. Vanderbilt’s run defense has quietly been average allowing 4.38 yards per carry in conference play. Kentucky has to be smart here with their offense due to the struggles of Patrick Towles and with Williams back, and a bowl game on the line I think they will do just that. Vanderbilt on the other hand is in a brutal stretch 5 of their last 6 games on the road including 3 of the last 4 without a bye week. This is a tough tough spot coming off an emotional loss down at Florida a game they nearly had pulled the great upset. I’m expecting a close game because Vanderbilt does have a very good defense, but Kentucky’s defense has played well too, and Vanderbilt’s offense is arguably the worst in the nation. Vanderbilt is very much like Missouri, and Kentucky handled Missouri pretty well. Vanderbilt has huge issues in the kicking game and is the worst red zone offense in the country with 38% TD percentage 28% in conference play and 61% scoring percentage. Compare that with Kentucky’s 89%. Kentucky also plays good defense in the red zone allowing just 51% TD’s in conference play. Kentucky has also struggled with turnovers, but wouldn’t you know it Vanderbilt has out done them turning the ball over 5 more times. I just think this is a perfect value spot for Kentucky who has more to play for with Charlotte on deck there is a good chance they go to bowl game with a win here. USF +8.5 TEASER w/ FLORIDA GATORS -1.5 4.4* PLAY Two top 50 defenses meet on Saturday night, this is a huge game for South Florida who wants to announce they are back to being a solid team. This team has definitely flown under the radar and can pull within 1 game with a win here in their AAC division. At this point Temple is over rated in my opinion we were lucky to cover the spread in the Notre Dame game, and their 19 forced turnovers have really saved them in spots like the Cinci game. This is a difficult trip playing at night as well, and I expect a very tight game as South Florida has only 11 turnovers on the season. South Florida also very efficient on offense with the running game ranking 21st, and a passing game that can beat you when they want. Quinton Flowers has done a great job, he’s a mobile QB, something that Temple has had issues with and Marlon Mack is arguably the best RB in this conference. Temple has not played well on the road -36 yards per game, South Florida +137 per game and recent common opponent on the road of East Carolina shoed South Florida at +222 yards, and Temple at -56. Getting over a TD I really like this team when you tease them. Florida Gators -1.5 I really like the Gators in this spot. They really need another impressive win to get back on the college football playoff comitee’s radar and South Carolina has been playing better so this is a perfect spot for them to do so. This line has already moved 3 points in our favor from 10.5 down to 7.5 and I’m going to move it 6 more. The value is already there with Florida failing to look impressive against Vanderbilt last week, but a lot of teams have failed vs. Vanderbilt who has a really good defense. South Carolina does not have a good defense ranking 107th vs. the run, and 81st vs. the pass in S&P ratings. The last 3 opponents for Florida on the road were balanced to very good defenses. 30/1, 113/17 (Kentucky), and 19/7 (LSU). South Carolina has allowed every opponent to run for 150+ yards, and 5 to rush for over 200. That sets things up for Florida to have a very good game here offensively and they should not lose with everything in front of them. Last week was a good game for them to wake up and I will remind everyone that in that game they were a bit flat coming off their best performance of the year against Georgia, in their biggest rivalry game. I have a lot faith and trust in Jim McElwain and I just don’t think this South Carolina team can match the intensity that Florida will bring in this game. Florida has every edge overall, and in conference play from third down offense, defense to red zone offense and defense and TO margin. They are even significant advantages I would say and Florida has had a tougher overall schedule. South Carolina has been playing better of late, but that’s just giving us value here. |
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11-14-15 | Utah State v. Air Force +1.5 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show | |
Air Force +1.5 4.4* play Utah State lost last week to New Mexico. New Mexico is ranked 93rd in stopping the run and held Utah State to 78 yards on 37 carries. That is a major red flag as Utah State needs to run the ball to win averaging 5.32 yards per carry in their wins and just 3.13 in losses. The problem is this team has struggled on the road 3.50 yards per carry and rank 96th in adjusted rushing yard stats. They face an Air Force run defense that is very good actually this Air Force defense overall is very good, but 34th in adjusted run defense which is the key here. Air Force went on the road against Michigan State and held them under 2 yards per carry. I think they are capable of holding Utah State in check here. Air Force has held every opponent under 160 yards rushing with the exception of Navy (loss 33-11), and Utah State when held under 160 yards are 0-4 on the season. Make it 0-5 in my opinion. Air Force running game as typically struggled against Utah State, but there are a lot of red flags that this Utah State’s run defense is not as good. They have allowed 11 rushing TD’s in their last 4 games alone (Air Force run defense has allowed 9 all season). Utah State’s run defense has allowed 2 games of 270+ yards rushing in their last 3 games overall and both against a 59th ranked defense and 48th. Air Force 2nd in the nation in running the ball and are definitely more capable at home with a 5.5 yard per carry average. They have in the past struggled against this defense, but I think playing at home and the fact that Utah State is allowing 75% conversions of TD’s in the red zone in conference play 71% overall is a huge factor. Utah State is also -5 TO margin on the road, Air Force is +5. Air Force also strong advantages on 3rd down offense and defense, and in the red zone as we mentioned. They are also being penalized nearly 3 times less than Utah State, and special teams efficiency is about even with Utah State ranking 37th and Air Force coming in at 42nd. I would expect the home field advantage to give Air Force the advantage there as well. Take Air Force to win this weekend. |
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11-14-15 | Georgia +2 v. Auburn | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 57 m | Show | |
Georgia +2 3.3* Auburn is off a huge win over Texas A&M last week on the road. I’m not surprised at all that they went on the road as a 7 point dog and win outright by 16 points covering the spread by 23 and I think a huge adjustment in this week’s line has already been made. This was a good match up for Auburn as A&M was 115th vs. the run, and for Auburn to have success right now they have to run the ball, but stopping the run and running the ball this week will not be an advantage they enjoy. That goes to Georgia who actually has the better and more balanced defense, and the running game that is much better. I took a look at what each team did overall and in conference and Georgia is ranked 12th running the ball in the country averaging 5.6 yards per carry, 5.18 in conference play, they go up against the Auburn run defense that ranks 70th in yards per carry defense and also has given up 19 TD’s 13 in 6 conference games. This could be a huge game for Georgia who struggled with their running game for a while after the Chubb game (2 games), but have been able to coach around it implementing the wild cat with Sony Michael. Georgia has out gained the opposing run defense average in 6 of their 8 games and sometimes doubling it. We saw Auburn’s defense hold opponents under in 6 of 8 games, but not in dominating fashion and LSU ran all over them. For Auburn who runs the ball 65% of the time they need to run the ball averaging over a yard per carry more in their wins than their losses. The problem is they are only averaging 4.10 yards per carry on the season and have been worse of late and just 3.98 in conference play. Auburn’s rushing offense has faced an average 53rd ranked defense, and Saturday they face the 30th ranked defense. Auburn has ran for more yards per carry vs. the opposing run defense just 3 out of their 8 games while Georgia’s defense has held opposing rushing offenses under their season average in 7 of 8 games. In adjusted run defense according to football outsiders Georgia ranks 25th while Auburn ranks 76th. Auburn ranks 57th in adjusted rushing offense, but Georgia comes in at 7th. Georgia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games I think this line has some value and their defense certainly played better last week holding Kentucky to 180 yards and 3 points. Auburn’s defense played well but still allowed 300+ yards and were lucky to get 3 interceptions. Auburn’s third down defense not very good and they were lucky they allowed just 10 points as A&M converted 10 of 16 third downs. I am worried about Georgia’s turnovers, but if they play a clean game like they are capable of they should win this game by a TD or more USF +8.5 TEASER w/ FLORIDA GATORS -1.5 4.4* PLAY Two top 50 defenses meet on Saturday night, this is a huge game for South Florida who wants to announce they are back to being a solid team. This team has definitely flown under the radar and can pull within 1 game with a win here in their AAC division. At this point Temple is over rated in my opinion we were lucky to cover the spread in the Notre Dame game, and their 19 forced turnovers have really saved them in spots like the Cinci game. This is a difficult trip playing at night as well, and I expect a very tight game as South Florida has only 11 turnovers on the season. South Florida also very efficient on offense with the running game ranking 21st, and a passing game that can beat you when they want. Quinton Flowers has done a great job, he’s a mobile QB, something that Temple has had issues with and Marlon Mack is arguably the best RB in this conference. Temple has not played well on the road -36 yards per game, South Florida +137 per game and recent common opponent on the road of East Carolina shoed South Florida at +222 yards, and Temple at -56. Getting over a TD I really like this team when you tease them. Florida Gators -1.5 I really like the Gators in this spot. They really need another impressive win to get back on the college football playoff comitee’s radar and South Carolina has been playing better so this is a perfect spot for them to do so. This line has already moved 3 points in our favor from 10.5 down to 7.5 and I’m going to move it 6 more. The value is already there with Florida failing to look impressive against Vanderbilt last week, but a lot of teams have failed vs. Vanderbilt who has a really good defense. South Carolina does not have a good defense ranking 107th vs. the run, and 81st vs. the pass in S&P ratings. The last 3 opponents for Florida on the road were balanced to very good defenses. 30/1, 113/17 (Kentucky), and 19/7 (LSU). South Carolina has allowed every opponent to run for 150+ yards, and 5 to rush for over 200. That sets things up for Florida to have a very good game here offensively and they should not lose with everything in front of them. Last week was a good game for them to wake up and I will remind everyone that in that game they were a bit flat coming off their best performance of the year against Georgia, in their biggest rivalry game. I have a lot faith and trust in Jim McElwain and I just don’t think this South Carolina team can match the intensity that Florida will bring in this game. Florida has every edge overall, and in conference play from third down offense, defense to red zone offense and defense and TO margin. They are even significant advantages I would say and Florida has had a tougher overall schedule. South Carolina has been playing better of late, but that’s just giving us value here. |
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11-11-15 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 | 41-27 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
[b]Western Mich +3 4.3* NCAAF POD[/b] I'm going to take Western Michigan here, as the value is just too high on Bowling Green. I would argue the wrong team is favored here. I do not think Bowling Green on a neutral field is a 6 point favorite, and the MAC West division teams are always better than the MAC East. With that said Western Michigan has had the stronger schedule. I also thinkg Bowling Green 4-0 ATS their last 4 games are due with an inflated line. I faded them last week and lost, but the final score of 62-24 was not even close to telling the full story. Bowling Green has now made Vegas look like fools as they have been off by 12.5, 36.5, and 35, and 17.5. I know we are getting value here with Western Michigan and I think they just win the game here tonight. Western Michigan is the more balanced offense and arguably the most balanced offense that Bowling Green has faced year to date. They also in my opinion have the better defense. Just look at what they did against Ohio on the road vs. what Bowling Green did against Ohio last week at home giving up over 500 yards. Western Michigan has some serious talent at WR in Daniel Braverman who I don't think Bowling Green will have an answer for. Western Michigan is also 17th in the nation at running the ball, and they have just 3 turnovers in their last 6 games. They will control the clock tonight and not make mistakes which will be the key to winning this game. Ohio possessed the ball for 37 minutes last week and 299 yards rushing, but lost the game. I expect Western Michigan to do a better job in this one. No disrespect to Matt Johnson or Bowling Green, but I just like Western Michigan a bit more. The biggest key here for me that made this a POD on the money line. Western Michigan penalized just 5 times per game while Bowling Green sits at 9.2 per game. Western Michigan is ranked 29th in special teams efficiency and Bowling Green is ranked 113th. The little things will decide the game, and I think this spread should have been a pk or small favors for Western Michigan. I'll take this value every time. |
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11-10-15 | Toledo v. Central Michigan +4.5 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +4 3.3* play We have a few things working for us in this match up between a couple of MAC teams still in contention for the MAC West title. Central Michigan is home and an under dog over a key number of 3. They have faced a very challenging schedule early in non-conference play with Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and Syracuse. Toledo ranks 115th having faced and beat Arkansas early, but gave up 500+ yards in doing so. Central Michigan has a few extra days to prepare for this game while Toledo is in a look ahead spot coming off a crushing loss to Northern Illinois. Toledo will get Bowling Green next week, and it's a look ahead because they have taken care of the Chippewas with 5 straight wins, and none of those have been close. Toledo does not know what it's like to lose to this team, but they may find out tonight. Really both these teams are one dimensional on offense, but I think the home team benefits the most form this. Central Michigan is good with their passing game led by QB Cooper Rush who is arguably the most under rated QB in the nation ranking 26th in QB rating. Toledo is one of the best teams running the ball and have done so successfully even in their loss against Northern Illinois last week, but Phillip Ely really is not a good QB. He's inaccurate and has 5 interceptions over the last two weeks. When looking at which defense will step up it's clear that Central Michigan has faced a lot more quality running teams than Toledo has faced passing teams. Toledo has faced just 2 teams inside the top 85 in passer rating and both are more well known for their running game in Northern Illinois and Arkansas. Cooper Rush has a ton of options at his disposal, and will be at home where his offensive line has done a better job protecting. This is just Toledo's third road game, they have a 1.42 sack % on the road, and I think they'll have issues tonight. I do expect this game to be close, but.. Central Michigan is a tough team to beat, and I still think Toledo is getting too much credit from the odds makers. Toledo is very heavily penalized 8.4 per game, 10.7 on the road compared to 6.6 for the Chippewas, and they are -2 TO margin on the road, -3 in conference play compared with +5 at home, +4 conference for the Chippewas. The Chippewas also very good on third down holding opponents to 32%, and in the red zone holding opponents to 51% TD's, 38% at home, 37.5% in conference play and have already beaten Northern Illinois. The key is whether or not they can get Toledo into passing down situations, and I believe they can they rank 51st vs. the run, 2.8 ypc allowed over their last 3 games so they are getting better, and have allowed 3.36 at home this year. The schedule does not indicate the type of running teams they have faced, but Syracuse, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Northern Illinois all good running teams. |
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11-07-15 | California v. Oregon -3.5 | 28-44 | Win | 102 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oregon -3.5 +100 3* play Oregon is simply a different team with Vernon Adams in there at QB. The last two road games for Cal has given up 70 points to teams that don't have as good of offense as Oregon has or is capable of. We have seen Oregon's offense kick it into high gear since Adams has returned. Adams in back to back road wins has 6 TD 's and 1 INT, coming back home will typically mean good things! Cal was home last week against USC and played extremely well with USC in a difficult spot, but again they could not win. We actually gave Cal out as a play last week and got a push at +6, but I think they are in big trouble here on the road against Oregon. The 13 turnovers in conference play won't help them either, take the Ducks. |
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11-07-15 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +6 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Nebraska +4 2.2* play Listen Nebraska is not nearly as bad as they have looked, Michigan State coming off the bye week, but haven't played well on the road. I like Nebraska as a shocking upset here today. This is essentially the Cornhuskers playoff game sure they get Iowa at the end of the season, but this is the game Nebraska wants and needs if they are going to get back to a bowl game they have to win out. |
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11-07-15 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +12 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Maryland +11.5 5.5* play I like the value we are getting here with the Terrapins who have been playing great football since firing their head coach. Maryland also has faced the #1 toughest schedule compared to Wisconsin at 82. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country as well and have -9 TO’s in their last 2 games otherwise they could have taken down Iowa or Penn State. Maryland has had a tough schedule as well facing Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State , Michigan, Bowling Green and West Virginia, but this is home coming week they still have a shot at a bowl game and Wisconsin comes in over hyped off a huge win against Rutgers. Wisconsin also not very good at forcing turnovers 13 on the season, just 6 interceptions which should give Maryland a shot here. Ironically Wisconsin is not the better running team in this game as Maryland is ranked 36th in yards per carry compared to Wisconsin who is ranked 63rd. Maryland has rushed for 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games against some very good defenses in Penn State (30th run defense), Iowa (7th run defense), Ohio State (33rd run defense). The dual threat QB with Perry Hills should give Wisconsin some issues on the road seeing as though they are allowing 5.62 yards per carry on the road, and the last time they faced something close to a dual threat QB in Nebraska they gave up 5.30 yards per carry. So I expect Maryland to stay in this game, their pass defense is better than stats have shown as they have given up big games to Bowling Green (3rd in QB rating), West Virginia, Ohio State (29th QB rating), Penn State (48th). Other than those games this team has been very good against the pass, and their run defense is very under rated allowing 2.8 ypc in their last 3 games, and 3.32 in conference eplay. Of course we know that Wisconsin wants to run the ball, and many would suspect they are back after their performance a week ago with Corey Clement returning to action with 115 yards on 11 carries. However, Rutgers 105th in rushing YPC, and they allow over 6 on the road Wisconsin had just 5.5. Otherwise this rushing offense has not been good just 2 TD’s in 3 road games, and a 3.42 ypc average, 3.69 in conference play. Take the Terrapins here with good value. |
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11-07-15 | Cincinnati +8.5 v. Houston | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 40 h 39 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +8.5 4.4* play I love the Bearcats in this spot, they were supposed to be the favorites in this conference yet they come into this game at 5-3 and have had to overcome adversity in multiple scenarios this year which have made them a better team. I really think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, and hungry for a chance to get back into this race. You could argue they have played 3 or 4 teams that are better than Houston. They played Memphis, Temple, Miami, and BYU losing 3 of the 4. Their game against Temple they absolutely should have won as they were +262 yards in that game, but turned the ball over 5 times which is a big key in this game. If the Bearcats can be no more than -1 TO in this game there is no way they don’t cover the spread in my opinion. They will have a shot to win this game. They are -9 on the season, Houston +15 biggest thing that separates these two teams, but Cincinnati has cleaned it up with only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. Strength of schedule means a lot here. Houston has played Louisville and that’s about it. Louisville with a nice defense, but absolutely no offense. There is a lot to like about this match up when you consider the hype Houston is getting, and the fact that they most certainly are looking past a 5-3 team and towards the showdown with Memphis next week. Houston has the 123rd toughest schedule, and I don’t think I would call it tough. Here are the defenses Houston has faced since Louisville, 127, 113, 119, 87, 117, 40 (Vanderbilt 4 TO’s, no offense). I’m not saying the Bearcats have a good defense, but they have a better offense than any of these teams, and they are great on third down allowing 24% conversions, they are also great in the red zone and have improved on defense as the season has gone along. Cinci is tested too holding Memphis and BYU on the road to 5-22 on third downs. I also think this line is inflated the last 3 games Houston has gotten into the rankings by covering the spread and then some. Their last 3 games have a MOV ATS of 23, 28, and 14 that is sure to get you too much credit the following week. I mentioned Cinci’s offense which is ranked 9th in yards per play. Here is a look at the offenses Houston has faced 108, 84, 38 (absolutely no defense), 95 (allowed 28 points), 120, 122, 117. This team relies on pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers ranked #1 in both. Cinci is 38th in protecting their QB, but probably better with Kiel in there, since he missed a few games Hayden Moore. Moore much less experienced took 11 sacks in 159 passing attempts compared to Kiel who took 3 in 162. |
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11-07-15 | TCU v. Oklahoma State +5 | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 40 h 33 m | Show | |
Oklahoma St +4.5 3.3* play Both teams come into this game undefeated, both teams have had weak schedules with similar results. The only difference is the fact that TCU is coming off two big victories and Oklahoma Stat gave up 53 points at Texas Tech, and TCU bias before the season. Those are the reasons TCU is favored, but I can tell you the defenses this team has faced have been awful ranking 96th in total yards allowed, 97, 84, 103, 127, 121, and 25th (Minnesota – 23 points). Oklahoma State ranks 41st and is very good at home against the pass and the run. They also possess a top ranked pass rush ranking 4th in sack %, and have forced 19 turnovers. TCU will struggle in this game, and I see Boykin making a couple of mistakes. They haven’t faced a single pass rush like this, and Oklahoma State has been known to pull upsets in Stillwater. I also like the fact that the Cowboys are ranked 14th in special teams efficiency and are better in tackles for loss, and in turnover margin as well as penalties per game. The little things make the difference. I still feel like too much stock is been given into last week. Oklahoma State gave up 53 to Texas Tech on the road while TCU gave up 52. There is plenty to like about both defenses, but home field advantage is on the side of the Cowboys. Remember in 2013 they beat #13 Baylor 49-17 here as a 7.5 point underdog. **TEASER - BAMA -0.5 AT HOME, FLORIDA ST +17 ON THE ROAD ANALYSIS BELOW Alabama -0.5 Teaser I like Alabama at home here for various reasons. First of all when Alabama loses they lose due to the opposing QB play. The last 6 times this team has been beaten they have given up 17 TD’s and just 2 interceptions. LSU runs the ball 70% of the time which falls right into what Alabama wants to do. Alabama is #3 in stopping the run, and they are at home here. They have held each team under their season average with the exception of Georgia who had 1 carry for 83 yards which have tipped the numbers and that game was on the road and in garbage time. The other thing I like about Alabama is they have faced a far tougher schedule and this is just LSU’s third road game and they struggled in both their other two against Miss State early in the season, a team replacing a ton of guys on both sides of the ball, and Syracuse (enough said). LSU has faced 1 top 50 offense in SEC play, meanwhile Alabama has faced 5 who rank in the top 50 in yards per play. LSU has only faced 2 defenses ranked in the top 50 in yards per play allowed, Alabama has faced 4. Alabama should be able to hold u for all 4 quarters, while I don’t trust LSU who rank 34th overall in adjusted defense, but 114th in the third quarter 47th in the 4th. Florida State +17 Teaser I love teasing these primetime games, because the lines are definitely sharp with Vegas taking so much action. In both cases I believe we are getting value. Clemson is everyone’s favorite team right now and while I have huge respect for them this conference still goes through Florida State. Florida State is getting healthy at the right time, and I think they will have plenty of options in the running game. On the flip side Florida State’s defense will keep them in this game. This is the most complete and balanced team Clemson has faced all year long with the exception of maybe Notre Dame, who should have beaten Clemson in reality in their own building. I believe Florida State’s defense is a bit better than Notre Dame while the offense is a bit behind, but very comparable. Florida State has just 2 turnovers all year, and I see no reason for that changing while Clemson has 14 including 1 in every single game. |
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11-07-15 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State -2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
[b]MTSU -2.5 4.4* PLAY[/b] The Blue Raiders sit at 3-5, and need this win to stay alive in the bowl hunt. They face a 7-1 Marshall team, but are favorites. Public backing Marshall of course, but I like Middle Tennessee we backed them 2 weeks ago, and lost, but that was on the road while now they have extra rest, Marshall dosn't and they will be at home where they have only lost to Vanderbilt, but should have won. This is a balanced offense and the best that Marshall has faced all year. Look at their schedule Marshall has not faced a singl offense as good as Middle Tennessee. I expect the extra time, and the fact that Marshall hasn't played anyone to play huge dividends for the Blue Raiders. |
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11-07-15 | Duke +7.5 v. North Carolina | 31-66 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
DUKE +7.5 3.3** I really like Duke here with revenge on their mind from last year’s home beating 45-20 to North Carolina who had 593 yards of offense in that game. That game was still closer than the final score, and Duke’s defense is much improved this year as is North Carolina’s, but I think Duke’s defense is the real deal. Duke ranks 6th in yards per play, and this is by far the best defense that North Carolina has faced, and I also think the strengths of each defense gives Duke the advantage, because North Carolina is 70th vs. the run and this is very good for Duke, because when they have faced teams ranked 61st or worse vs. the run they average 37.4 ppg and that has happened 5 times this season. Duke, also much more balanced ranking 8th in run defense, and 17th in pass defense. North Carolina, does have 2 extra days to prepare, and I’m definitely factoring that in here, but this is a big rivalry game, Duke’s players are saying everything right the week after the refs cost them a win against Miami. In reality that game did not matter is what they said this is the game that matters and the winner is likely to go on to face Clemson in the ACC Championship game. I also like the advantage in the passing game for Duke. Marqise Williams definitely prone to the interception with 7 on the year and he will be forced into some situations where everyone will know he’s passing which is not good. It will be interesting to see how the Tar Heels adjust when they are not able to run the ball. They’ve only faced 1 team in the top 60 in run defense. UNC also scores with big plays, Duke one of the best in limiting big plays ranking 16th in isoPPP+. North Carolina is getting a lot of credit here from the oddsmakers and I’m not buying it. The improved defense is the main reason why and Gene Chizik definitely deserves some credit, but the red flag is there in their run defense, and not to mention the last 4 opponents are ranked 111th, 119th, 92nd, and 90th in yards per play. Duke by no means is great on offense, but they have already played in games against good defenses and prevailed. They also get a UNC run defense that’s not very good and that should help them greatly. Other key stats in this game like 3rd downs and red zone are a wash, but where Duke has an advantage are in penalties per game, they have a major advantage on special teams ranking 2nd in the nation in special teams efficiency. They are +34 in tackles for loss, they have 27 more tackles for loss than North Carolina who is +4 in tackles for loss which just goes to show you that this Duke team is for real on defense. They are also +10 in sacks while UNC is +1. |
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11-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Missouri +8 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Missouri +8 5.5* NCAAF POD The perception on the Missouri Tigers could not be any lower at the moment. They scored 3, 6, and 3 points in their last 3 SEC games, but those were all against top 40 defenses and arguably 3 of the top 5 defenses in the SEC in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Florida. With that said Miss State still has a very good defense ranking 32nd in total yards allowed, but they haven't exactly had the toughest schedule. The perception is that this team is as good as last year, but that simply is not true. I also like the fact that Missouri is coming off the bye week which allows them to come up with a few schemes that should help the offense as we all know they need it. Miss State really does not need to scheme as they feel good about themselves putting up 40+ points in each of their last 3 games. Miss State is about to face the best defense they have faced all year. The 40+ points in their last 3 is way inflated. They have played Kentucky ranked in 90th in defense, Louisiana Tech and Troy. Missouri is ranked 3rd in yards per play allowed, and they'll be at home. MIss State struggled in their other 3 games vs. SEC opponents who also had bad defenses (exception LSU), putting up 17 against Auburn and Texas A&M. We have an extremely low total here with Vegas expecting a low scoring game, and giving 8 points to the dog with the better defense I'll jump on board every time. Miss |
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11-04-15 | Ohio +20 v. Bowling Green | 24-62 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Ohio +20.5 3.3* play I really like the line value we are getting here on the Bobcats, a well coached team. First of all they come off two loses ATS where they were not even close to covering. The odds makers were off by 27 and 38.5 points where Ohio missed covering the spread. To avoid this they have inflated this number against Bowling Green, because they are coming off 3 straight covers and in their last 2 have covered the spread by 35 and 36 points. Ohio was not as bad as they looked in their last road game against Buffalo losing 41-17 as a road favorite. They were -4 in the turnover margin game, which rarely happens as they are still +5 on the season. Ohio can throw the football, and I feel it's a good match up against Bowling Green who is 113th vs. the pass. Vick should have a very nice game here against Bowling Green's pass defense. Ohio is top 50 in completion % and passing yards and I feel they will be able to put up enough points to cover this large spread. Bowling Green also can throw the ball, but that matches right up against Ohio's strength on defense which is its pass defense. Bowling Green will go up against Ohio's pass defense which has allowed 6 passing TD's all year with 9 interceptions. They have not allowed over 300 yards passing to any QB's all year and while I think Matt Johnson will throw over 300 yards he will not look great doing so. Johnson has been sacked already 24 times this year and goes up against Ohio's 19th ranked pass defense, this may be the best pass defense he has faced, and this is a team that's not all that balanced as their rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired. Bowling Green also the more penalized team here with 9.3 per game which is a lot, but what also concerns me is the fact that they are 114th in special teams efficiency while Ohio comes in at 60th, and committing just 5.8 penalties per conference game. Bowling Green also goes up against a top 40 third down defense for just the 3rd time all year and they lost the other two. Ohio allowing 32% conversions, and it has trickled over to their red zone defense which has allowed 42% TD conversions in the red zone and 35% in conference play. A lot to like about Ohio catching 21 points here. |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +7 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
Northern Illinois +7 4.4* NCAAF POD All three of Northern Illinois losses have been on the road, but they haven't played necessarily bad in those games and if for nothing less it gives us value in what is their biggest game of the year going up against Toledo who is 7-0 SU & ATS. Vegas has to inflate these numbers, because of what this team has done, and to be honest their schedule is not nearly as challenging as Northern Illinois who had to face Ohio State nearly upset them, and Boston College, one of the best defenses in the nation on the road. Northern Illinois covered both of those spreads. Meanwhile Toledo faced Arkansas and really got a ton of credit for that win, but Arkansas should have won that game. I don't know many teams with 500 yards of total offense who score 12 points, but that's what happened to Arkansas as they out gained Toledo by 200. Same thing against Iowa state which is very unimpressive of Toledo who actually got to host this game. They were out gained by nearly 200 yards again and somehow they won. Northern Illinois had two non-conference games as true road games Toledo did not. Perception is definitely off on this Toledo team in my opinion as they continue to get a lot of hype because they are still undefeated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change tonight. Northern Illinois has been here before 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, and have extra time to prepare for Toledo who is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 with extra prep time. Both teams need to run the ball to be successful, and Kareem Hunt is a very good RB for Toledo, but he's just not the same guy with those injuries. Northern Illinois has the better RB here with Joel Bouagnon and Jordan Huff. Their run defense has also been better ranking 29th in the nation and the only time they allowed more than 4 yards per carry was against Ohio State on the road. Ohio State actually only had 162 yards rushing in the game, which is a season low for them. Toledo's run defense has a lot of red flags they are allowing 4.17 yards per carry in conference play. A conference schedule that has not featured anyone worth talking about as their 4 opponents have a combined 8-26 record. They just got done allowing 400 total rushing yards in their last 2 games alone to Eastern Michigan and Umass who is 114th in the nation in rushing yards. Toledo's passing game is also a bit shaky here with 5 interceptions in 4 conference games and Northern Illinois has a secondary featuring Shawn Lurry who leads the nation in interceptions. Overall, it's a pretty even match up between passing offenses, but Northern Illinois seems to be a better team with just 5.8 penalties per game making 3rd downs certainly easier, and Toledo comes in with an amazing 9.8 penalties per game. That's coaching, and I know Matt Campbell is getting a ton of praise, but you are not going to win this game with that type of a performance. Both teams are good in the red zone on defense, and it will be huge to see which offense can convert better. On the season Northern Illinois has been a bit better at 80% while Toledo comes in at 63%. Overall no significant edge, and we get a TD to play with in a game where both defenses are holding opposing teams to under 50% in the red zone for TD%. I like my chances in this one with an inflated line it's hard for any team to move to 8-0 ATS, and I'm guessing Toledo won't be able to do it tonight in what should be a low scoring game. |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Temple +11 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 33 m | Show |
Temple +11 5.5* NCAAF POD I think it’s pretty clear that every time Notre Dame steps on the field they are going to have an inflated point spread, and I think that’s definitely clear against Temple here. There is no doubt that Notre Dame has some momentum coming in, but they haven’t faced a defense like this all year with the exception of Clemson, a game on the road that they lost, but could have won. The problem in that game is they started the game sluggish, and they have been notorious to getting off to slow starts. The problem is they can’t afford that here against Temple who has very good coaching behind Matt Rhule. This Temple team has outscored opponents 137 to 29 in the second half this year and there is no better sign of a good coach. Temple also should be able to move the ball enough to cover this spread with Jahad Thomas having already proved against Penn State that he can run the ball against top defenses. Thomas had 135 yards against a Penn State run defense ranked much higher in run defense than Notre Dame who ranks 85th in yardage and 90th in yards per carry. Although those numbers are skewed a bit having faced Georgia Tech and Navy they gave up 590 yards to USC in their own building and were lucky to win by forcing 4 turnovers. Temple is not going to turn the ball over, and I would actually bet that Temple wins the turnover margin. Notre Dame has the tendency to turn the ball over with 20 in their last 9 games dating back to last season. Temple has one of the best front 7 havoc rates in the country and at home they are sacking QB’s on 14% of their drop backs while Notre Dame is 84th at protecting their QB. I expect Notre Dame to keep it on the ground for most of the game and that really favors us covering the spread here. It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has not held an opponent other than Texas under 20 points all season, and Temple’s defense has been dynamite on third downs and in red zone defense. Notre Dame on the road is converting just 18% of the time on third down which is a major concern in this game. I really see Temple coming out strong in this one and coaching will keep them in this one late. |
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10-31-15 | Georgia v. Florida -2 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
Florida Gators -2 -105 3.3* play This game will decide the SEC East on neutral field. This is a huge game and once again it’s time to fade Georgia’s head coach Mark Richt. Florida will have the field advantage playing in Jacksonville, and I expect them to play their best game yet. This is a game they dominated last year without the better head coach, and their QB Treon Harris only completed 3 passes in that game, but Florida still won 38-20. Georgia will be without Nick Chubb, and we have seen the running game far less explosive without him as they only averaged 3 yards per carry at home against Missouri. Their QB just simply can’t be trusted especially against a big time defense like this. I expect Florida to win the battle of the defenses, and Jim McElwain to get a signature victory. Both times Georgia had to step up and play a defense of this caliber they were unable to do so losing against both Alabama and Tennessee with just 27 total first downs. |
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10-31-15 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia +6 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
Virginia +6 2.2* play This would be a larger play in any other scenario featuring any other coach. I’m not a big fan of Mike London at all, but it’s hard not to play this value here with Virginia who is much better than their schedule indicates. Virginia has had a very challenging schedule this year, and Georgia Tech is coming off a very emotional win against Florida State on a blogged field goal returned for a TD. I expect them to come out flat which could mean good things for Virginia. There really is not a talent gap at all between these two teams so I expect the game to be close until the end. Georgia Tech’s defense on the road has not been good and neither has their offense. While they have faced 3 of the best defenses in the country on the road this year I do expect Virginia’s front 7 to play well as they have improved each in every year vs. this triple option under Mike London which is actually pretty surprising. Georgia Tech is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry in conference play, and 5.33 on the road and I expect Virginia to be able to get that part of their game going which will be huge. I also think Matt Johns can have success against this defense that is ranked 118th in havoc rate. Johns had 4 interceptions in the second half of last week’s game against North Carolina, but Virginia still only lost by 13 points. Johns should be able to take care of the ball against Georgia Tech, and If he does I see no reason why this team won’t be in the game until the end. This was a team after all that nearly upset Notre Dame and probably should have. They play excellent defense at home – 28% conversions allowed on third down and 43% TD% in the red zone. Georgia Tech has not been able to convert on third down 19% on the road and 30% in conference play. I like Georgia Tech here to have a shot to pull off the upset. It won’t save London’s job, but this is a perfect scenario against a team in a serious hang over situation. |
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10-31-15 | Ole Miss v. Auburn +7.5 | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
Auburn +7.5 4.4* play There are many red flags regarding this Ole Miss team and I just think Auburn is improving with each week. They are coming off a tough loss, but being back at home should help that, and Ole Miss is off a big win at home in dominating fashion and this line is definitely a bit inflated because of that along with the “revenge factor” that everyone is talking about after Ole Miss lost last year 35-31 in dramatic fashion to Auburn. I feel like I am backing the more balanced offense here. Ole Miss is a completely different team on the road running the ball with 2.26 yards per carry, and they have struggled against some bad overall defenses like Memphis. Auburn is getting better on defense and held Miss State, a better rushing offense to 2yards less per carry than their season average. Auburn is also getting Carl Lawson back at DE for this game so the pass defense will definitely benefit as well. I mentioned red flags, and it’s surrounding the QB play Chad Kelly. First of all he’s got a QB rating of 129 in SEC play, and 185 outside. To put it into perspective Auburn’s QB have a 125 QB rating in SEC play and have had 3 of their 4 games on the road. Auburn also suffered last week from a ton of drops otherwise they really could have dominated Arkansas. 7 drop passes does not help a QB, and it typically is something that is easily corrected. The other red flag is the fact that Ole Miss offense is converting just 31% of third downs on the road, and 33% in conference play. Compare that with Auburn who is converting 46% at home and 44% in conference play, but since they made the QB switch they are now converting 54% of the time, because they are a pass and run threat and Ole Miss defense on the road has not been nearly as good allowing 55% in 3 road games. This has trickled over to the red zone where they are only converting 41% of their trips into TD’s in SEC play, and they are allowing 93% in conference play. That’s a huge stat considering Auburn does not give up big plays. I have backed this Auburn a lot this year and have been wrong a lot, but I have watched nearly all of their games and the value right now is really high, because they haven’t been winning games, but I have noticed them playing a lot better. Ole Miss is a team that also turns the ball over quite a bit 19 on the season and Auburn has just 1 turnover in their last 4 games overall and they are only penalized 4 times per game. They also enjoy a significant edge in special teams ranking 7th in special teams efficiency while Ole Miss comes in at 74th. |
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10-30-15 | East Carolina v. Connecticut +6.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Connecticut +7 buy hook 3.5* play I'm going to take Uconn, they looked bad on the road again, but this is a team that has not had a lot of opporutnity to play equal talent at home and tonight is the night I think is a must win for this team at 3-5. They still have goals and a chance at a bowl game, and I have liked what I have seen from the offense and Bryant Shireffs has played extremely well at QB. They were able to move the ball against South Florida at home with over 500 yards of offense and East Carolina has a very similar defense. East Carolina does not have the running game that South Florida has which is what killed Uconn in that game against the Bulls. I also think this is a tough situation for EAst Carolina. I don't see how they are up for this game. They led at the half against Temple and completely were out coached in the second half losing 24-14. I think that takes it's toll, because they are not going to get into the mix in the AAC and I see a hang over spot here tonight. Uconn and East Carolina also have two common opponents in BYU and Navy. Uconn was outscored by 14.5 points per game while East Carolina was outscored 15.5 points per game. I give Uconn an excellent chance to win this game. |
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10-29-15 | Buffalo v. Miami (OH) +7.5 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Miami OH +7.5 3.3* play Certainly not a game to get too excited about with what is on the card tonight, but I just do not see an edge in any of the other games. This game provides tremendous value in my opinion it's one of the few games Miami OH will be able to have a chance at wining. They have had a very difficult schedule and have been on the road for 4 of the last 5 weeks, and when you are a bad team that's just bad news. Buffalo on the other hand has been at home for the most part and have shown they really struggle on the road. Buffalo beat Ohio last week 41-17 and it's completely misleading as they had 2 interceptions for TD's. I excpect this to be a close game and I wouldn't back a team on the road by more than a tD that is converting 27% of their third downs, allowing 54% in conference play. Has a red zone offense TD% of 33% in conference play, and a red zone defense of 73% overall. Their offense rushes for less than 4 yards, and allows more than 4 and their QB play is nothing great. They are also penalized nearly 10 times a game on the road. I think the Red Hawks realize this is one of the few chances to win a conference game and will rise up. |
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10-24-15 | Texas A&M +6 v. Ole Miss | 3-23 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +5.5 3.3* play Both teams come off losses last week, but Ole Miss flat out lost to Memphis while A&M really beat themselves with 3 pick sixes which really inflated the final score thus creating some value with the line this week. A&M actually had 15 tackles for loss against Alabama last week, and had 4 total turnovers compared with Ole Miss who beat Alabama on the road by forcing 5 turnovers. Funny A&M still better TO margin in conference play. This is a good match up vs. A&M, because their weakness is in run defense and Ole Miss is really struggling to run the ball this year and only averaging 2.96 yards per carry in conference play. A&M strength on offense is passing the ball, and Ole Miss weakness on defense is in pass defense, and they are just 70th in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile Ole Miss offensive strength is in their passing game, but the strength of A&M is their pass defense, and they are ranked #1 in in adjusted sack rate and passing down sack rate. Ole Miss does get their best offensive lineman back for this game in Laremy Tunsil, but he has not played in a while and this is a hell of a game to return at LT. I actually think he could hurt them in this game with holding penalties. I think Kyle Allen rebounds, and I think he actually has the better supporting cast with Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones. Tra Carson out of the backfield is also a weapon, but in a close game it’s match ups and A&M has been very good against the pass and in the red zone allowing just 41% TD%. Take out the 4 turnovers against Alabama and the Aggies have just 6 turnovers. I expect a very close game and Ole Miss actually is more turnover prone so I like the 5.5 points. |
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10-24-15 | Middle Tennessee State +7.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 16-45 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
Middle Tenn +7.5 2.2* I see some great value in this line given the fact that Louisiana Tech has the 104th strength of schedule while Middle Tennessee who has been pretty banged up through some of these games and is getting healthier has the 58th ranked strength of schedule. Statistically it appears Louisiana Tech has an edge, but there are a few things I like about the Middle Tennessee much more. First I think they have the better QB in Brent Stockstill who leads an up tempo attack and has several weapons including Richie James and Ed Batties who will be a great challenge for the LA Tech pass defense allowing a 158 QB rating in conference play. Probably the biggest reason I like the Middle Tenn is their ability in the red zone and shows they have the better QB. They are 75% in the red zone this year in TD% and their defense is allowing 57% meanwhile LA Tech who has an easier schedule 55% TD % in the red zone, 53% in conference play and has allowed an 80% TD % at home this year. |
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10-24-15 | Central Michigan v. Ball State +8 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Ball State +7.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD There is tremendous value in this line as Central Michigan comes in with a 7-0 ATS record following a 44 point margin of victory ATS in their last game. Meanwhile Ball State comes in off an 0-3 ATS run with a 26 point margin of loss ATS in their last game. This line has been adjusted accordingly and I think we have a lot of value on the home dog. Many people look at the trenches to see which team is better and that’s really where a game starts. Looking at it from that perspective Ball State has the advantage in adjusted line yards on offense ranking 100th vs. 120th, but very very good in power success rate while defensively they come in at 97th compared to Central Michigan’s 108th. Central Michigan has a very under rated QB, and I have cashed in on this team multiple times backing Cooper Rush and company, but they are 0-4 on the road, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the MAC West. Ball State has shown signs of success this year and played both Northern Illinois and Toledo tough. Central Michigan’s offense is extremely one dimensional and I think they will have plenty of success but the defense is in for a long day. I think Ball State will be able to put up some points here as they will be able to run and throw the ball. First of all CMU allowing 5.24 yards per carry on the road, and their passing defense has been terrible allowing 9.8 yards per pass and a 182 QB rating on the road. Enter Riley Neal, Ball State’s freshmen QB who has been very good with 10 TD’s to 2 interceptions, and even better in conference play with consistent play against 2 top defenses in Toledo ranked 15th, and Northern Illinois ranked 34th. Chippewas rank 115th in QB rating on the road and 71st overall. In this game I think home field advantage is worth a lot and I think it will be very close. |
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10-23-15 | Utah State v. San Diego State +5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
San Diego State +5 -105 5.5* NCAAF POD These teams are like looking into a mirror yet we get the home dog on national TV with 5 points to spare. Rocky Long is probably one of the most under rated coaches in college football and this team has gotten better and better with each passing week. Utah State is exceptional on defense, but lets be honest this line is inflated for their blow out win against Boise State last week where they were able to force 8 turnovers. In fact the only games this team has won by more than 5 points have been games where they are +3, +2, and +7 in turnover margin. San Diego State just does not turn the ball over and their QB Maxwell Smith has not thrown an interception in 5 games. Both teams like to run first, and rely on their defenses to stop the run on the other side. Both defenses are top 10 in run defenses and there is no significant advantage although San Diego State has the better running back in D.J. Pumphrey who is very very good and only getting better with 424 yards in his last 3 games. San Diego State’s offensive line is starting to gel after breaking in 3 new OL, but they also got their best player back last week in guard Darrell Greene who was suspended for the first 6 games. Rocky Long has his players more motivated than they would have been for this game after seeing Utah State beat Boise State. Both teams are undefeated in conference play and are favored now to win their division. Rocky Long is 18-7-1 ATS in his last 26 conference games, and they should have the overall advantage in special teams. They also are far better in red zone defense as Utah State has allowed an alarming 68% TD% success rate. |
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10-23-15 | Memphis v. Tulsa +10.5 | 66-42 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Tulsa +10.5 3.3* play Tulsa is prime for an upset of Memphis, as this team is a top 10 offensive juggernaut and very similar to Bowling Green whom Memphis struggled with on the road earlier this season. Justin Fuente already asking coaches how he can get his players to focus for their next game after they upset Ole Miss at home with the biggest win in their school history. Fuente sasked Mack Brown and Gary Paterson how to deal with distractions and admitted this. He also said his players were singing and dancing in the locker room. These are kids I’m not surprised with that said there is a lot of talk about a 12-0 season already and nothing is given in this league. Tulsa is a very under rated team that actually has a better pass defense than Memphis who is ranked 97th to Tulsa’s 90th. Tulsa actually more respectable at home allowing a 117 QB rating. Tulsa is 0-2 in conference play and very hungry to get a win here. Their first two opponents were very good in Houston and East Carolina who they faced on the road. Both considerably better than Memphis is against the pass. Actually when Tulsa hosted Houston it was a reasonably tight game that Tulsa should have been closer than a 14 point loss. Greg Ward killed them rushing for 200 yards from the QB spot and Memphis does not really have that weapon in Paxton Lynch. Tulsa’s offense should get balance, because Memphis besides the Ole Miss game has not been able to stop the run allowing over 4 yards per carry on the road including 4+ yards per carry to Kansas who is ranked 126th in rushing yardage. A balanced offense should provide a ton of opportunities for Tulsa to cover this game. I also see Memphis coming out flat in this game considering they have fell behind by 10 or more in 4 of their 6 games. I definitely think Tulsa has a shot to win this game, but if I can grab Memphis at pk during live betting it will provide a great opportunity for a free wager to win double which is what I’ll be looking at if Tulsa can get up by 10 or more. |
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10-20-15 | UL-Lafayette +8.5 v. Arkansas State | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette +8.5 3.3* play The value here is on the Rajin Cajuns in this one getting 8.5 points, and I just do not see a ton of distance between these two teams. Lafayette has to travel, but it's not a short week for them as they haven't played since the 10th and have an extra 3 days of preparation. Both teams rely on running the ball to win games, and the Rajin Cajuns have the better running game behind Elijah Mcguire who is very under rated and went for nearly 300 yards in last year's match up. I really like their offensive line that ranks 11th in the country in sack %, and 22nd in rushing yards per carry. I think they hold a huge edge in that department and it's a big key to winning success on the road. Arkansas State's offensive line is ranked 88th in yards per carry and 110th in protecting their QB. Of course Arkansas State's defense also looks better to this point, rushing defense especially, but looking at the adjusted run defensive numbers Arkansas State can't stop the run either ranking 90th. They gave up 172 yards on only 29 carries to Idaho who was ranked 102nd in rushing offense, they also gave up 179 to an FCS team. True, they held Missouri intact, but the Tigers have been dreadful on offense this year against everyone and rank 115th in rushing offense. Lafayette's defense has struggled, but they are better in the red zone at least and Arkansas State really lacks the explosive play that will get them up big in this game in my opinion. Arkansas State ranks 116th in explosiveness and 123rd in passing down success (2nd and 8 or longer , 3rd and 5 or longer). Lafayette ranks 55th, and I really like what we have seen here from Jalen Nixon who is taking better care of the ball and is also a rushing threat. Arkansas State got their guy back and we were lucky to cover the spread behind Fredi Knighten in last Tuesday's game their win 49-31 over South Alabama was very misleading and I think we could see an upset here tonight. |
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10-17-15 | USC +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 8 m | Show |
Take USC +7 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD I love these type of situations. USC has a great situational play without Sarkisan. I think the level of concentration with this team will increase dramatically. I think the Trojans will rebound nicely as they tend to rebound well after a loss. The perception is this team has given up, but I just don’t see it there is too much talent, and the extra preparation time and motivation from these coaches to prove themselves are all reasons to love USC. Not to mention teams following a game against Navy tend to not cover the spread. It’s a tough game to bounce back after with the way Navy blocks. I’ll give you one great example – Ohio State played Navy to open the season and lost the next week hosting Virginia Tech. Notre Dame themselves are 2-5 in games played the week after Navy. Last year they lost by 22 as a 3 point dog after Navy, and in previous years they lost to Pitt as a 4.5 point favorite, beat Purdue but only by 3 as a 14 point favorite, beat Wake Forest by 7 but as a 13.5 point favorite, lost to Tulsa as a 9.5 point favorite in 2010, lost at Pitt by 5 as a 5.5 point underdog so they covered that spread by a ½ point. In 2008 they lost to Syracuse following Navy as a 19.5 point underdog. In 2007 they lost to Air Force following Navy by 18 points. In fact they are just 1-9 ATS the last 10 seasons following the Navy match up. |
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10-17-15 | Florida +7.5 v. LSU | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 38 m | Show | |
Florida Gators +7.5 3.3* play I like the Gators in this spot even without Grier in their at QB , as they have a capable QB in Treon Harris who has looked better at times than Grier. Harris should be used the right way by this coaching staff that I have a lot of faith in. McElwain took Garrett Grayson and improved his abilities sending him into the NFL from Colorado State which reminds me of what Urban Meyer did when he coached in the lower tier programs. He gets the best out of his players, Greg McElroy, and A.J. McCarron come to mind. Two other guys who had no business going to the NFL, but were drafted for what they did with McElwain helping them. For Florida this is a revenge game and I’m giving them a shot to win. First of all they lost by 3 last year with terrible QB play and 3 turnovers which is quite the accomplishment. LSU’s defense this year also not as dominating as I think we all figured it would be as they have given up 20+ points to every opponent except Miss State (19). Florida can win if they get to 20 or at least cover this spread. LSU’s defense ranks 63rd in the front 7 in havoc rate compared to Florida’s 15th ranked and 6th overall when you add in their secondary. At the end of the day Florida can take more chances against this running game than most people because of the secondary they have. I see Fournette getting his yards, but when they get into the red zone it’s going to be awfully difficult to score. Meanwhile I think Florida’s offense has a few things that LSU will be caught off guard by with Harris and I think as long as they don’t get killed in the TO margin department they should have a chance to win late. Florida just 5 turnovers lost on the year and +8 overall. |
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10-17-15 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +4 | 41-23 | Loss | -102 | 44 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +4 3.3* SEC Showdown I said a few weeks back that Georgia was a great match up for this Alabama team, because their offensive strength was running the ball, and they could not pass against this defense. To beat Alabama you have to be able to pass the ball. Sure Ole Miss benefited from a bunch of turnovers, but if you can get a lead against Alabama you start forcing them outside their comfort zone and A&M’s defense is dramatically improved from last year and rank 11th in havoc rate overall. Over the last 4 seasons (including this year), Alabama has lost 6 games, and in each one it’s been the same thing. Opposing QB’s have great games. In their loss to Ole Miss they gave up a 171 QB rating, and in their wins just 85. In 2014 it was 162, and 117, 2013 it was 140 and 112, and in 2013 it was 163 (Texas A&M), and 107 in Alabama’s wins. It’s true Alabama can dominate the line of scrimmage but the last 4 seasons or so the way to beat them has been through the air as their secondary has not been nearly as good. This is a good match up for Texas A&M, not only are they improved on defense, at home, underdog, coming off a bye, but they have the advantage against the secondary. The Aggies are littered with 5 start receivers and it has paid dividends as Christina Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are going to be tough match ups for the Tide. Kyle Allen has been every bit as good if not better than Chad Kelly who beat Alabama on the road and posted a 171 QB rating, and the Aggies have a much better running game to compliment along with an X-factor with Kyler Murray who can also run the ball or throw. I’d also like to add that Alabama has only faced one team this year that is currently ranked. Yes Georgia deserves to be ranked and in reality that score was just not as bad as it looked. I’m very confident that the Aggies are going to give Alabama issues and put them in uncomfortable situations where they will be forced to come back and win by throwing the ball. |
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10-17-15 | South Florida v. Connecticut -2.5 | 28-20 | Loss | -104 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Connecticut -2.5 2.2* play Both South Florida and Uconn are off impressive wins this past week with South Florida being in more impressive fashion, but looking at this match up I like the Huskies to prevail. First of all we can not ignore this South Florida rushing offense which has really looked sharp in every single game. Marlon Mack and this offense runs the ball 63% of the time and Uconn has not done a great job of stopping the run, but I think those stats are a bit misleading for Uconn. First of all Uconn faced 2 triple option teams, and then they also faced BYU on the road and an SEC team. They have had the more challenging schedule for sure. Uconn’s pass defense is very good which will allow them to put their guys on an island and throw more guys against the run. In years past this has been a very good run defense, and I believe their recent struggles are a bit misleading. I think they will be aided this week facing a team that will struggle to pass the ball. Quintin Flowers QB rating on the road is 90. He played poorly at Maryland, a team ranked 101st in opposing QB rating. Uconn’s secondary is one of the best in the AAC and ranks 33rd overall. For Uconn’s offense they rely on Bryan Shirreffs to win them most games as they have a 171 QB rating in wins and a 113 in losses. Lucky for him South Florida has really struggled in pass defense this year. They will get their share of tackles for loss or sacks, but overall they rank 97th in opposing QB rating. Maryland has arguably the worse class of QB’s and South Florida’s defense made them look very good. Overall expect a very close game to the end. I think the home field advantage is worth a lot here in this match up and I like UConn’s ability to keep South Florida out of the red zone and to play better vs. the run than they have in previous weeks. |
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10-15-15 | UCLA +7 v. Stanford | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
UCLA +7 5.5* NCAAF POD – UCLA +215 1* PLAY UCLA’s struggles against Stanford in recent history are well documented (1-6 ATS in their last 7), but this is a different team. This is probably the best UCLA team that Stanford has faced, and for Stanford people are forgetting that this team replaced their entire defense and I know they have looked good of late, and their wins against USC and Arizona are impressive, but this is their biggest challenge. I’m not even that impressed now with their win against USC considering their situation now with Sarkisan and their loss against Northwestern looks even worse now after what Northwestern did at Michigan. Jim Mora is a very good coach and this team has played exceptionally well on the road, 5-0 last year 2-0 on neutral fields. This team is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a bye week, and the value is there considering vegas was off by nearly 30 points in their last match up against Arizona State. Listen Arizona State is good, they had a bad game against USC, and they pose a different challenge than Stanford. With Stanford what you see is what you get and it’s not overly difficult to prepare for. I see UCLA’s offense really doing well in this game as they are truly balanced and pose a different challenge to this Stanford defense that in my opinion is getting a little too much credit. When I say Stanford is predictable that’s not always easy to stop, but in their wins this year they have a QB rating of 204 and 88 in their loss. That follows the trends from previous years in 2014 it was 167, to 113, and in 2013 it was 163 to 113. This team needs Kevin Hogan to play well, and he honestly faces a tough task here on Thurdsay night even at home against the Bruins. UCLA has an interception in every game, and is top 25 in opponent yards per attempt and completion %. UCLA has been excellent in the red zone allowing only 38.89% TD’s, and on third down 36% both are better than Stanford’s defensive stats. This just is not the same Stanford defense and they have actually allowed more sacks, and tackles for loss and have only forced 3 TO’s. |
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10-15-15 | Auburn v. Kentucky +2.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Kentucky +115 3* play Nobody is giving Kentucky enough credit. I sure as hell gave Auburn way more credit with my bank roll this season, and I’m not just jumping off them, because believe me I wanted to on the surface back Auburn. You’d think you would have value with Auburn, but they have not proved that they have improved at all and now Malzahn is going back to Jeremy Johnson at QB on the road in what will be a great environment. Kentucky plays so much better at home and I just can’t see Auburn pulling this one out. Even in Auburn’s last game at home against San Jose State they won 35-21, but they had 4 turnovers and were -64 yards in the game. So after looking better against Miss State, but losing they looked bad again but were fortunate to beat a San Jose State, a team that is just not as good as in years past. Auburn will be able to run the ball in this game just fine, and Kentucky won’t care they actually give up more rushing yards per carry in losses than they do in wins dating back to last year, and they are fine with that as they are able to avoid the big plays, and Auburn has not been explosive this year ranking 74th in that category. The keys to Kentucky absolutely reside on the offensive side of the ball although they do have the advantage defensively. In wins they are able to run and pass, but more importantly run the ball. Boom Williams is a stud and arguably the best known secret in the SEC. Auburn is 115th in run defense and has allowed all of their opponents more rushing yards per carry than their averages with the exception of Miss State, and that was at home. Boom Williams should have a big day and I see Patrick Towles making some big plays in this game as well. Towles should have time as Auburn is 106th in sack % and 103rd in havoc rate which should cut down the turnover numbers as well for Towles which is a big key. At the end of the day Auburn has more talent level, and Malzahn has been able to coach around that, but we are finding out that he just does not have the QB play that he has had in the past and that’s probably the biggest key to his offense. Kentucky is very good at home and holds the advantages in the red zone, 3rd down, and special teams. Kentucky could have beaten Florida, and I don’t see any signature wins for Auburn that are really that impressive or even games where they have played a full game. |
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10-13-15 | Arkansas State -4.5 v. South Alabama | 49-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Arkansas State -4.5 3.3* play Arkansas State, with their back up QB dominated Idaho last week, a pretty good offense that put up 35 points on Arkansas State, but a bit misleading as Arkansas State had a 521 to 338 yard advantage in this one, but did throw a pick 6 which made the game a little closer. I typically lean towards the home dog on these mid week games, but this is a situation that Arkansas clearly has more experience with. Arkansas State also has a lot of experience at the Jaguars Stadium that hosts the Godaddy bowl each of the last 4 seasons. Much to learn about Sun Belt teams, but Arkansas State has clearly had the more challenging schedule facing USC, Missouri, and Toledo. About South Alabama – A lot of players came over from UAB when they decided to end their program so there are still a lot of question marks about how good they can be this year. The hype is on their defense they just won on the road against Troy as a TD under dog holding the to 18 points, but Troy has struggled offensively all year. Troy only averaging 20.6 points to begin with and has struggled with an offensive identity starting the year with an up-tempo offense and then dialing back the pace when they realized they couldn’t run it. That was a pretty significant win for South Alabama according to their head coach - It was a festive atmosphere at Troy's Veterans Memorial Stadium in the first "Battle for the Belt." Jones said it was everything an in-state, in-conference rivalry should be. I’m not saying this team can’t get up after a big game, but it’s much more difficult as they take some time off and have the most consistent Sun Belt team coming in. So far South Alabama has been very content with their performance and I like Arkansas State’s chances. Defensively South Alabama ranks near the bottom in adjusted statistics, 114th overall, 107 vs. the run, 97 vs. the pass and it’s a bad sign with Fredi Knighten returning for this game. Arkansas State has been playing without their best player Fredi Knighten who returns for this game. Knighten suffered an injury in their game against Missouri in a 27-20 loss. Knighten is probably the best QB in the Sun Belt accounted for 35 total TD’s a year ago and is a real dual threat running and passing the ball in this offense. This is a huge boost for this offense along with Michael Gordon at RB who should benefit greatly who is already averaging 6.50 yards per carry. Knighten was outstanding in conference play with nearly 8 yards per pass attempt with 16 TD’s to 6 interceptions while completing 62.3% of his passes. He’s got his running game, and receiving weapons back this year and 3 of the 5 on along the offensive line. Defensively this team is very very strong up front and returns mostly their entire defensive line that was ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate. The biggest key is getting off the field on third down. Arkansas State has done a decent job getting off the field allowing 37.84% on third down conversions following 35% a year ago in conference play. Offensively the Red Wolves have improved compared with last year at just under 40%, but Knighten and this running game definitely better than last year will be a handful for South Alabama which allows 42% on third down while converting at just 34.67%. In the red zone, this is where this game changes, because the Jaguars really struggle without a lot of options down here they are only converting 35% of their opportunities into TD’s. Defensively they have been even worse allowing 16 TD’s in 18 attempts for 88.89%. Arkansas State has had a lot more success 67% TD’s in the red zone on offense while their defense comes in at 70% which I expect them to improve throughout the season. Turnovers have killed Arkansas State and probably giving us some value in this line. They can not turn the ball over and have 12 turnovers in their 3 road games. The good news is they are playing a beatable defense and can do whatever they want in the running game so I don’t expect turnovers to be an issue and South Alabama also has had the same issues of turning the ball over. I also give the special teams edge to Arkansas State who clearly have the better punter and return game while South Alabama’s kicker may keep them in the game I think South Alabama will be scoring 3 points while Arkansas State is scoring 7. |
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10-10-15 | Florida v. Missouri +6 | 21-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Missouri +6 3.3* play Waiting for the public money to com in this morning and drive this price up to a key number and we will grab this at 6 points and back Missouri and their defense. This is a lot of points for a home dog with a defense of Missouri's caliber. This is absolutely an over reaction in the line from Florida's win a week ago. I did predict and play Florida last week, but I just don't see how they can come out with the same amount of energy as they did a week ago facing a top 5 team in their own building. Missouri also has been getting healthier and are starting a new QB which is actually a good thing, because Matty Mauk only seemed to hurt this team. I expect a very low scoring game and the fact that we have 6 points to work with for the home team with a 37.5 point total makes me feel really good. Florida State -1 / Utah -1.5 4.4* Teaser of the week |
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10-10-15 | Oregon State +10.5 v. Arizona | 7-44 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 3 m | Show | |
Oregon St +10.5 2.2* Oregon State is off a bye, and I like what I saw from them early in games this season. With the bye, I see this team coming in fresh and a lot stronger with a lot of preparation for Arizona. I believe this game should be close throughout, because Arizona has really struggled vs. the run and they will face a QB in Seth Collins who has really been impressive to go along with Storm Woods. I truly thought they played better against Stanford than Arizona did and I believe Gary Andersen is a bit of a better coach. His defense is improving and have held opponents to 27.45% on third down. They have also been very good against the pass which is a huge key in beating Arizona. In 2014 – Arizona had a 146 QB rating in wins, and a 96 QB rating in losses, and the same is true this year with a 158 QB rating in wins and a 100 QB rating in losses. Oregon State has the capability of slowing this offense down enough, but even if they are able to move the ball they have been better on third down and I actually think Oregon State will be able to move the ball. Oregon State’s offense is under rated and Arizona has given up 10 rushing TD’s in their last 2 games alone and have yet to face an offense with a running QB as an added dynamic and that’s what Seth Collins brings with this game. Arizona also has really struggled in pass defense, they also have allowed 47.5% conversions on third downs and double the red zone attempts compared to Oregon State’s red zone defense. Oregon State’s offense has faced 2 of the top defenses in Stanford and Oregon State which should help with preparation. This is a young team with a good coach that will continue to improve throughout the year. |
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10-10-15 | Georgia -3 v. Tennessee | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 49 m | Show | |
Georgia -3 -105 4* play Both teams lost at home last week, and it’s a question of who can bounce back? My money is on Georgia this week as they have a significant edge in the coaching department as the Bulldogs are 9-1 following a loss over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee also played much poorer against Arkansas despite the score than Georgia did against Alabama. Georgia really beat themselves early and were unable to stick to their game plan. They held Alabama to 379 yards, but it was their 4 turnovers, and the fact that they gave up 2 TD on a block punt, and an interception for a TD that made the final score look far worse than it really was. When you consider that they were still able to run the ball for over 5 yards per carry and hold Alabama under 5 it sets them up well against Tennessee this week. It’s the perfect opportunity for this team to get away. Tennessee is really missing 2 of their guys they lost up front earlier this season and they just allowed 275 yards rushing to a one dimensional Arkansas team. Actually Arkansas has been decent with the pass, and about even to Georgia’s ability, but have struggled running the ball. The game against Tennessee was their best game and the rushing defenses they faced prior were 82, 116, 5th, and 111 so that tells you all you need to know about where Tennessee is this week. Georgia is much better running the ball with more than 200 yards on less carries and more rushing TD’s than Arkansas. Georgia’s defense is also much better than Arkansas who held Tennessee to under 400 yards. Tennessee has not shown an ability to win unless they get their offense going and I don’t see that as a possibility this week against an angry Georgia team that has bounced back well after losses under Mark Richt and I trust him much more over Butch Jones who has not proven a damn thing. Can’t win close games, and can’t get a signature win. This is another opportunity for him to do so and I’m not confident he can. |
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10-10-15 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Michigan | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 32 m | Show | |
Northwestern +7.5 3.3* This line truly says a lot about what the oddsmakers think about Michigan in the early going, but I think they are just a bit over hyped at this point and I believe there is no way they are not looking ahead to Michigan State. The total is down to 34.5 and we have over a TD to work with and that makes me very confident in a match up between two teams that are nearly identical in a lot of ways. For Northwestern there is still a perception that they will start to trip up when the Big 10 conference starts like they have in the past, but this is Pat Fitzgerald’s best defense, a defense he’s been building for years. We saw glimpses of it last year when they had several big road wins including at Notre Dame and at Penn State. In the past it was Northwestern leaning on the offense that was not able to get them the wins they wanted in conference play. I said it last week when we backed the Wildcats, they continue to get no respect. I even said in my analysis last week that they would not give up a TD against Minnesota as they shut them out. Now each team has a below average QB and will be going up against a top tier passing defense. I give the edge slightly to Northwestern here as their pass defense has been a bit better and Thorson has done a better job taking care of the football and is also more mobile giving his offense more of a shot with his legs. Thorson had a nice long rushing TD against Stanford earlier in the year, another strong defense and Michigan showed they had issues containing Travis Wilson who had 52 rushing yards on 12 carries when they hosted Michigan to open the season. Actually you can really look at those two match ups of Utah vs. Michigan, and Northwestern vs. Stanford, because it’s Big 10 vs. Pac 12 and all 4 play a very similar style of football. Northwestern was just as impressive if not more impressive in their game against Stanford especially vs. the run. Speaking of the run both teams will run the ball 60% of the time in this game, and while Michigan does have the edge in rushing offense and rushing defense I don’t think it’s as big as the numbers indicate. Northwestern has faced 3 top 50 rushing defenses and have rushed for a higher average in 2 of them, while Michigan has only faced 1 top 50 rushing defense and was held 1.5 yards below what Utah’s run defense average was which makes you believe Northwestern’s rushing game is better than numbers would indicate, but they have played the stronger defenses with Duke, Stanford on the schedule all in the top 50. On the flip side their defense has also faced 2 top 50 rushing offenses while Michigan only faced 1. Still I give small edge in the running game to Michigan and it makes sense why they are favored. In the end it’s going to be the small things, penalties, special teams, and other key spot play in the red zone and on third downs. In reality it’s again all pretty much even. Northwestern has been absolutely dominant on third down and in red zone defense allowing 20% on third down and 10% TD% while Michigan’s offense has been a bit better in red zone conversions and just as nasty on third down but is allowing 67% TD%. Northwestern is +4 in turnover margin while Michigan is -2, and they are being penalized almost 2 fewer per game. Both kickers are slightly above average and have gone 2-4 on field goals 40+ yards. Northwestern has been very good in the return game with a punt and kick off return for TD. This game with the low total and not even a significant coaching advantage along with the fact that Michigan players can’t help themselves but look forward to the Michigan State show down are all reasons why you can’t sleep on Northwestern and at this price it’s hard not to take them as they will have a shot at winning the game barring a ton of turnovers. |
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10-10-15 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan +7.5 | 47-21 | Loss | -106 | 38 h 18 m | Show | |
Eastern Mich +7.5 -106 5.5* pod; EMU +250 1* I love Eastern Michigan in this spot, they are one of the most improved MAC teams and have proven that they can score against pretty much anyone at this point so I’m not too worried that they face Akron one of the better defenses in the MAC, because after all this is a MAC West team vs. a MAC East, and I am very confident that Eastern Michigan may even pull this upset here at home. Akron won 31-6 at home last year in this meeting, but even Terry Bowden admitted that the improvement from Eastern Michigan is pretty drastic and Eastern Michigan turned the ball over 4 times in that match up. Both teams want to run the ball first and Eastern Michigan can do it better while Akron can stop it it better, but Akron has only faced 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense and gave up 41 points while Eastern Michigan is 24th in yards per carry behind Darius Jackson who even scored a TD against LSU on the road last week. I mentioned Eastern Michgian has been able to move the ball on all of their opponents and rank 31st in yards per play compared with Akron’s offense that ranks 119th. You may think Akron will be able to run the ball and control the clock, but 7.5 points is still too many given the fact that Eastern Mich is at least good in one department on defense and that’s pass defense where they have been excellent. Their run defense looks worse than it is having faced 4 teams in the top 51 in yards per carry. Akron not very good at running the ball ranking 105th with 3.4 yards per carry. Special teams plays a critical game in what should be a low scoring game, vegas has this at 53. Eastern Michigan has a major advantage here. Their place kicker is 3-4 beyond 40 yards including a 52 yard make, and their punter Austin Barnes is among the best in the country ranking 22nd in yardage and has 18 punts inside the 20 yard line. Akron’s kicker is 6-9 and has missed a field goal from 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49. As you guessed Eastern Michigan’s offense also has the advantage on third downs (they were 45% at LSU), red zone offense 76% TD% (3-3 at LSU), compared with Akron’s 40.9%. Akron is probably looking ahead to their game with Bowling Green the next week which is critical to their success in the Mac East so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them lose this game. |
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10-10-15 | Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
CMU +7 2.2* PLAY Central Mich comes off a big win against Northern Illinois, a team that nearly beat Ohio State while Western Michigan is off a bye having lost big to Ohio State. I don’t see how home field advantage, and a bye week would be this much of an advantage for Western Michigan team that has not played any better than the Chippewas that I can see. I will take the 4 point line move and back Central Michigan as these are two very similar teams with similar results against similar power 5 conference teams including Michigan State who Central Michigan played just as good against on the road while Western Michigan opened the season against them at home. Both teams like to pass first as they have trouble running the ball. You could argue that whomever is able to run the ball should be able to win. It’s really a coin flip, because Central Michigan has not been able to run on anyone, and Western Michigan has not been able to stop anyone. Although Central Michigan’s running game looked better at Michigan State and has been pretty consistent the entire season. I also like Jahray Hayes taking over for Spalding as he has more breakaway speed. I believe both QB’s are pretty even, and both pass defenses are pretty even with Central Michigan probably having played better so far and better against their common opponent so small edge here to the Chippewas and I love what their QB Cooper Rush has been able to do his offensive line protects him better than Terrell, and they also have a better pass rush. With all of these factors we took a look at third down defense and special teams as being the deciding factor and Central Michigan has a very big advantage especially in the kicking game when you look at the stats from 30+ yards out the Western Michigan kicker is just not capable and is even shaky at time on extra points. |
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10-09-15 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -3 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Marshall -3 2.2* Friday Night Action Marshall has some depth despite some injury issues and I really think there is value in taking them by a field goal. First off this is a team that is not as offensively talented as last year, but they are still able to move the ball on the ground which is exactly what Southern Miss biggest weakness is ranking 124th in run defense from a YPC perspective. Now I have been high on Southern Miss and have backed them twice already to win, but now they just don't have the same value and since this line has dropped 4 points I"m going to take Marshall. Marshall's defense will actually bet the difference in my opinion. This unit is stout one of the best pass defensive units allowing |
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10-03-15 | Ole Miss v. Florida +7.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
Florida +7.5 -105 3.3* play Automatically many are going to assume value here on Ole Miss seeing that they went into Alabama and won by around this number of points. People also assume Ole Miss is better than Tennessee who was leading the Gators 27-14 last week. However, I think this is more about match ups and this is not a good one for Ole Miss. Ole Miss has a ton of questions along their offensive line not sure who is going to sit out or play with TUnsil out indefinitely and RG Justin Bell stated as being out as well. Already 59th at protecting their QB they go up against Florida who is 3rd in sack %, and 6th havoc rate as they have 35 tackles for loss with 22.7% of plays resulting in TFL, Interception, fumble or pass breakup. Ole Miss was extremely lucky to beat Alabama on the road. They were outgained, but they were lucky Alabama gave the ball up 5 times. Alabama showed weaknesses in this Ole Miss defense that Florida can exploit with a mind like Jim McElwain, who already has this offense much improved. There are red flags for Ole Miss and I mentioned they would have issues with VAnderbilts under rated defense. Alabama’s weakness on defense is in their secondary and QB Chad Kelly took advantage. Ole Miss is not a really strong running team with their strength being their receivers. Florida has arguably the best secondary in the game. Ole Miss converted just 28% on third down at Alabama and their defense allowed 55%, they also allowed Alabama to score TD’s on 5 of their 6 trips inside the red zone. Like I said a lot of red flags. Florida’s offense has been a bit better, and I think they could move the ball if they are smart. Ole Miss is 124th at getting to the QB, and Will Grier has been pretty good behind an offensive line that is protecting him pretty well. He’s been able to complete 62.6% of his passes and 7.3 yards per attempt which is way better than what they have done in years past. I’m not looking at what these teams did up to this point, but rather the situation and match up and I think Florida could actually pull this one off in an ugly low scoring game. |
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10-03-15 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo +8 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 40 h 33 m | Show | |
Buffalo +8 4.4* play Matt Johnson leads the nation in passing yards and Bowling Green is a very exciting team to watch and bet on and they have already beaten 2 Big 10 teams. Buffalo came into the season with an experienced offense, and the defense was supposed to be behind, but it’s been the other way around until last week when the offense was +108 yards with 487 against Nevada, but turned the ball over 3 times and lost the game to our benefit as we bet on Nevada on the money line. The biggest key in this game is can Buffalo run the ball. They have arguably one of the best running backs in conference play in Anthone Taylor and this unit had 5 yards per carry on the road against Bowling Green this year. Now BG has continued to approve vs. the run, but their pass defense is the main concern here and Buffalo has the potential to be very balanced with Joe Licata. I expect Licata to have a very big game. Licata is going to be #1 passer on Buffalo’s all time list and he’s completing 65% of his passes and that includes 68.6% against Penn State. Bowling Green 107th in completion % allowed and has a very bad passing defense. Balanced offense are very difficult to stop on the road, and Bowling Green has already shown their share of struggles. For Bowling Green, they get their toughest match up of the season in my opinion as far as the defense they are facing. Bowling Green loves to pass the ball ranking 6th with a 60.43% passing play percentage. It’s just a bad match up here, because Buffalo has been stout against the pass. Buffalo will face it’s stiffest test, but they have been so dominant I find it hard that Matt Johnson will dominate like he has all season long. The Bulls are 11th in opponent completion %, 24th in yards/attempt, and 17th in opposing QB rating. Buffalo has held all opponents to 40% or less on third downs, where they should have more success in this game. Bowling Green has had a lot of penalty issues too having at least 10 in all 4 games that could haunt them in this game. The last thing I have to mention is special teams where Buffalo also has an edge. Bowling Green’s kicker is not much better than Purdue’s he’s 3-7 on the season and they have given up punt return TD and their coverage has not been very good. Buffalo definitely an edge here and they have a punt return TD themselves. Special teams is crucial when we get into these games, and I love the home dog in this spot. The meetings between these two teams have been extremely close over the past few years and I see no reason why this won’t be different. It’s just an inflated line for Bowling Green this early |
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10-03-15 | Florida International +3 v. UMass | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 2 m | Show | |
FIU +3 4.4* play This is some great value with FIU despite being on the road which they haven’t had an issue playing well on the road. Umass just comes back from a beating in South Bend and it’s going to take a bit of time to get over that. I know a lot of their more experienced players were looking forward to that and I think it will be difficult to get up for this game. Both of these teams will pass to win the game at over 60% passing play % FIU is better on both sides of the ball on offense and defense by a pretty wide margin. It’s not as if they haven’t played anyone they have faced UCF, Indiana, and LA Tech all on the road. This team is used to playing on the road by now, and one more road game shouldn’t be that difficult especially a winnable one like this. FIU should have plenty of time to throw with their offensive line ranking 14th in pass protection while Umass is 108th in getting to the QB. The other advantage they have here is 3rd downs one of the bigger keys in a football game. FIU is converting 50% of the time and allowing 33% compared with Umass 28% and allowing 53%. FIU’s defense has held both Indiana and LA Tech under 40% success rate and have held both teams on the road under their season average for points. Umass only averages 21 points and I don’t see how FIU won’t put that up on a Umass team that is 115th in yards per play allowed. Alabama +8.5/TX A&M -0.5 4.4* teaser of the week Too much value here with the teaser and Alabama with Georgia running the ball 64% of the time and Alabama’s front 7 being the strength of this team holding opponents to 2.0 yards per play. The fact that they lost by 6 to Ole Miss after turning the ball over 5 times just shows you this team is very good. I think they win outright, but still a lot questions from their QB so I can’t back them on the road to win, but I do see a tight game here making the 8.5 points a very comfortable bet. Texas A&M will host Miss State, a very over rated team in my opinion. I don’t think Miss State can keep up with this offense, and I don’t think they have played particularly well. They also come off a huge victory Auburn that was very misleading. They couldn’t run the ball just 2.7 ypc and Auburn has looked very very bad vs. the run and were outgained overall. They were lucky that Auburn was very bad in the red zone going 0-4 for TD’s. They should have lost that game yet they won, and I just don’t see how they can win in a talented SEC division on the road in back to back weeks. A&M also has revenge on their mind after Kenny Hill threw 3 INT”s in the road loss last year. |
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10-03-15 | Louisville +4.5 v. NC State | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show | |
Louisville +4.5 3.3* play Too much value here with Louisville you can argue that all 3 of Louisville losses were against opponents that are better than NC State or would at least be favored. You could also argue that Louisville could have won all of those games and we would be looking at a different situation here. NC State steps up big time in competition against a hungry Louisville team that wants their first win in conference play. NC State has faced 86, 101, 103, and 144th ranked teams. Louisville’s defense is legit and I think they can run the ball against NC State ranking 3rd in run defense, but has faced 1 team inside the top 100 in rushing ypc and that would be Troy who is in the 90’s and averaged more than a yard better than their average. In the end you won’t find a stat for NC State you won’t like given their competition, but Louisville has a lot to like about them. I especially like their red zone defense to start the season which makes this spread extremely attractive. |
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10-03-15 | Houston v. Tulsa +7 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Tulsa +7 5.5* POD & Tulsa +230 1* BONUS Tulsa has to be licking their chops here against Houston. Coming off a bye week and after a great performance vs. Oklahoma Tulsa gets to host a team as a 7 point under dog that is getting a lot of credit already for their win on the road against Louisville. Both these teams are breaking in 2 new impressive coaches from big programs with Tom Herman form Ohio State on the Houston side and Phil Montgomery on the Tulsa side. Tulsa’s offense worked on the road against Oklahoma. Now he gets a bye week to improve the defense against another top tier offense coming in from Houston. Montgomery has already proved he can improve this team and he’s got more returning starters than Houston. Houston is far more predictable running the ball 65% of the time while Tulsa has been more balanced at 56%. Houston will face the best offense they have seen all year. Yes, they have been very good vs. the run, but they haven’t faced a team that can pass the ball and run the ball. Louisville’s offense has been struggling all year and they haven’t faced anyone else to note. Dane Evans at QB should keep the sticks moving and Zack Langer is a powerful back in the red zone where Houston is allowing 70% TD’s. Actually Tulsa’s defense has been better on third down than Houston and their offense has also succeeded more on third downs. I actually think Tulsa has a solid shot at pulling the upset. |
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10-03-15 | Minnesota v. Northwestern -3.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show | |
[b]Northwestern -3.5 3.3* play [/b] I like the Wild Cats quite a bit here. They’re 4-0, and the story goes… Northwestern can’t win in October. Since 2010 this team is 21-3 in August/September, but 6-14 in October. The difference is they beat Duke and Stanford this time around. Both Duke and Stanford beat arguably the best teams in their conference in USC & Georgia Tech since. I said this in my write up of week 1 when I backed the Wildcats over Stanford, this is Pat Fitzgerald’s best defense. A defense ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 25th in yards per play. Minnesota’s offense has struggled against defenses ranked 89th, 84th, and 63rd. They faced Kent State who is ranked 13th, but gave up 52 points to Illinois and 36 to Marshall. Minnesota scored just 10 against them. I predict that Minnesota won’t even get a TD in this game as Northwestern is holding opponents to 10% RZ TD%, and 18% on third downs. Minnesota really does not have that RB like they did a year ago in David Cobb and Minnesota has been forced to throw the ball 47% of the time. Northwestern is running the ball 67% of the time which is smart for them with a young QB, but they will have to throw at certain points in this game if they are going to win. The good news is they are converting over 50% of their third downs and Minnesota is 99th in getting pressure on the QB and are playing without 75% of their secondary who have key injuries. The injuries are a huge concern for Minnesota and something I just do not think they can overcome. Northwestern has a chip on their shoulder they have lost these games in the past, even last year they had 120 more yards than Minnesota but lost. This is a home game and Pat Fitzgerald’s defense should dominate and they should win and cover this spread as they also have the better overall special teams in my opinion. |
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10-02-15 | Memphis v. South Florida +8 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
South Florida +7.5 3.3* play South Florida looks to be the same as the past few years after losing to Maryland, who has been everyone's punching bag to start the year. Meanwhile Memphis is cashing machine on the over as well as ATS. I actually think this is a very difficult situation for them here tonight. Memphis now goes back on the road where they just don't play defense ranking 106th in yard per play having to face South Florida who has 5 extra days of preparation, and a lot of motivation. Memphis is getting a lot of respect here and I'm not buying them at this kind of chalk with this type of defense. Memphis also has Ole Miss up next, and they get them at home. I don't see how they won't be more excited about that game. For South Florida this is Willie Taggart's best team yet, and I think Marlon Mack can have a great game along with their QB Quentin Flowers. Really any offense has played well against Memphis and I see no reason for that to change. South Florida's defense though is much better than the last two teams Memphis has faced in Bowling Green and Cinci. They rank 26th in havoc rate, and 8th in the front 7 while DE Eric Lee and tackles Senat & Hector could have some key plays that force turnovers that change this game. |
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10-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +7 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +7 -115 3.5* play I'm going to take the Bearcats in this game in what should be another action packed Thursday night battle. A few interesting story lines here with the Bearcats starting their back up QB, who broke the school record a week ago for passing yards and he did it in 3 quarters. Hayden Moore will be just fine and has many weapons that can beat Miami's defense. Meanwhile Miami is undefeated and coming off a bye, but has Florida State up next. I believe Cincinnati will struggle on defense here for sure, but I believe they will get Miami into enough 3rd down scenarios to win this game. Avoid giving up the big plays and the Bearcats win this game outright. If I lose this game ATS it's because Miami has big play after big play which is obviously quite possible. Miami has been actually pretty dreadful when they get into 3rd down scenarios converting around 25% with none of their 3 games going over 30% success. Cinci stopped them on 3 of 10 last year, but still lost. However, 5 of the 6 TD's for Miami last year are no longer on the team or hurt. This game is also at on the road for Miami which tends to make a pretty significant difference. The same third down issues have carried over to the red zone where Miami has had issues getting TD's, and again that's where Cincinnati can and will win this game. The perception on Cincinnati is they are a bad 2-2 team, but they could easily be 2-0. They have to avoid the turnovers that have plagued them and I think Hayden Moore could be the answer as Gunner Kiel threw 5 interceptions when he played. The Bearcats have won 27 conescutive non conference games at Nippert Stadium and Moore and the offense will go up against a Miami secondary that will be without 2 safeties for the first half because of targeting. Miami allowed 50% in their only road game on third down and that was to Florida Atlantic who played without their star dual threat QB. Bottom line neither team can put pressure on the QB and the offenses should be the stories. I think 3 reasons to like this play. 1. we are getting a TD to work with (shop around), 2. we have the home field advantage, and 3.) There is no way that Miami players have not been looking ahead to Florida State during their bye week. If you want to add a few other reasons Al Golden is not the best coach here he has not done well after bye weeks and Miami is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. |
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09-26-15 | USC v. Arizona State +5.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 27 m | Show | |
Arizona State +5.5 3.3* play This seems like a trap game here after USC lost to Stanford at home they are still 6 point favorites on the road. I really think it says a lot about what Arizona State thinks about USC, but I’m not buying into it. I think Arizona State has a lot to look forward to this year, and they haven’t played great the last few weeks. You could argue they are saving it for this game as it is their most important game of the year. Arizona State was not supposed to be good last year in a rebuilding year but pulled off 10 wins, and this year they return 16 starters. Todd Graham is getting the most out of his players and it seems like the opposite for Steve Sarkisian. Every time there is a big game he seems to lose, and despite the enormous amount of talent on this Trojans team I just think value is with the home team who will have a shot at pulling off the upset. |
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09-26-15 | Utah +12.5 v. Oregon | 62-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show | |
Utah +12.5 2.75** play It’s hard not to take Utah here, because what wins or covers on the road is defense and a good running game and Utah has both. They also have a huge edge on special teams and coaching. Kyle Whittingham is a very good coach and Mark Helfrich has to prove that he is this year without Mariotta, and being in his 3rd year with mostly the guys he’s recruited, and it hasn’t been a good start. There are a lot of red flags for Helfrich in my opinion who has 12 guys returning. This team was also extremely lucky last year with +23 TO’s which obviously is hard to repeat. Oregon is 67th in yards per play allowed and they haven’t played anyone besides Michigan State, they are also 67th in run defense to Utah’s 34th. Even more important is the fact that they have allowed teams 80% TD% success in the red zone on 15 attempts. Whether it’s in garbage time or not and if Oregon plays well they will leave the back door cover open, but I don’t think it comes to that. Devontae Booker will have a good enough game, and whether it’s Travis Wilson or Kendal Thompson it shouldn’t matter. Utah has the edge with their kickers Andy Phillips and Tom Hacket and were 5-1 on the road last year beating UCLA, Michigan, Stanford, and only lost to Arizona State by 3. |
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09-26-15 | UCLA -3 v. Arizona | 56-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
UCLA -3 -105 3.3* PLAY I rarely will take a road favorite in a situation like this, but my algorithms love UCLA in this situation and I do too. First of all it says a lot about what the oddsmakers think of UCLA to make them favorites of 4.5 points, and now we are getting some value her eon UCLA despite some injuries to key players. UCLA is a very deep team and one player does not make or break this team. They are far more talented than Arizona who has not been able to beat Jim Mora at UCLA. UCLA has beaten Arizona the last 3 years, but they will not be taking them lightly that’s for sure seeing as Arizona was the Pac 12 South champion a year ago. The key for Saturday night’s game is UCLA staying dedicated to running the ball with Paul Perkins. I believe they will do that behind their offensive line that’s playing as good as any. Perkins is averaging 7.40 ypc on the season while they have only given up 1 sack. QB Josh Rosen has definitely come back down to earth, but I think that only benefits them here. Arizona can’t get to the QB, and yes they will have a 3-3-5 defense that might confuse him, but I expect him to be a bit humbled by this point in the season. Coming off a 3 INT game I think he plays a lot more conservative which will only help UCLA win this game on the road. UCLA were big favorites last week against Arizona and were down 20-10 late, but came back and won which also has to say a lot about this team, but this game is much more important to them than last week, and I expect them to come out and play one of their best games. Arizona meanwhile returns just 12 starters, and has had issues that have been hidden in their 3-0 start. For one they had far too many troubles with UTSA out of Conference USA. Funny thing about the Road Runners is they were the least experienced team in the nation. They returned 20 starters the previous year, but lost 31 lettermen. UTSA lost 32-42 at Arizona, then went on to play 2 other power 5 conference teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State and lose 17-99. UTSA’s offense played the best by far against Arizona on the road and I expect UCLA to do whatever they want in this spot behind their offensive line while their defense dominated Arizona last year will again be able to make enough spots for them to win by a TD or more. |
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09-26-15 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -3 | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 19 m | Show | |
Auburn -3 +100 2* play This is all about line value here, and we never should have played Auburn last week, but finally they are making the switch at QB that they needed to. Sean White will take over, and they’ll face a Miss State that lost to LSU at home the week before by a much different score, but were equally dominated. Auburn has been running the ball fine they just need a little balance with the threat of the pass game which I think they will have this week. Malzahn said, “"Sean White is a guy that has gotten a lot of reps," said Malzahn. "He's responded very well in practice and very well in scrimmages. I feel like he needs a shot right now, and we've got a lot of confidence in him." "He's a guy that can flat-out throw it and he can run it to. He's got that little air of confidence that quarterbacks have." |
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09-26-15 | Arkansas State +7 v. Toledo | 7-37 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +7 3.3* play I really like the value here we are getting with Arkansas State, and I wish I jumped on them earlier in the week as my algorithims had them as a strong lean. Toledo could easily be 0-2, but they beat power 5 conference teams in back to back weeks, and are sitting probably 3-4 points higher than they should be. Despite winning against Arkansas and Iowas State who are probably 2 of the worst teams in their respective conferences, Toledo was out gained significantly in both (-197 Arkansas, -172 Iowa State). Arkansas State have played their share of power 5 conference schools in USC, and Missouri two teams I feel are much better than Arkansas and Iowa State, but they lost both and were only out gained by 71, and 108 which is pretty impressive. This is well coached Arkansas State team we took them at home a few weeks ago against Missouri and it cashed and we are going to back them again here on the road against a defense they will have much more success against. |
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09-26-15 | Bowling Green v. Purdue +5.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
Purdue +5.5 5.5* POD; Purdue +180 1* bonus The public is loving Bowling Green, a high scoring machine that already went on the road to beat a Big Ten team in Maryland. First of all Maryland is not technically a Big 10 team until they do something having just entered the league. The public perception about both of these teams is completely off and now the line has moved 8 points since opening with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite. I’m sold at this point Purdue wins this game outright if they play smart. We backed Purdue the first Sunday of the season and thought we had a cashed ticket against Marshall, but it was an absolute collapse in the 4th quarter of a game that started with a pick 6 and ended with an interception as Purdue’s QB Appleby had 4 interceptions. Purdue is making a change though and it comes at the right time against a paltry Bowling Green defense that has nobody worth mentioning. This is a great opportunity for David Blough to come in and look good at QB. Bowling Green can’t get pressure, and they are terrible vs. the run. They are also coming off a pretty tough loss at home against Memphis that may be tough to get over here. Purdue is a team that has a head coach in his 3rd year (I love these situations), with 15 returning starters. They haven’t looked good yet, but watching the Marshall game I know this team is improved. They improved drastically last year, and this year they returned the entire offensive line with 80+ starts. I expect big days from both of their running backs Markell Jones who has 7.16 ypc and D.J. Knox who is a tough runner. Purdue is also pretty good in key situations on defense which should help. They have held opponents to 31.82% on third down while Bowling Green is just 37% at converting (I bet you thought it was better), and they held opponents to 53% TD % while Bowling Green (converting at 53%). Defensively Bowling Green allowing 70% in the red zone on the road this year and 67% overall. They are also not a very disciplined team with nearly 11 penalties a game ranking them 123rd in the country. They have been opportunistic on defense which gave them the game against Maryland, but in three games only have forced 4 turnovers. However, they are a MAC team.. The MAC is looking pretty good these days as Northern Illinois nearly beat Ohio State, and Toledo took down Arkansas both on the road. However, the MAC West is far superior to the MAC East. Ironically Purdue just 1-2 vs. the MAC have only played teams from the West. MAC East on the road vs. Big Ten the last 2 years are 1-11 with the 1 win being Bowling Green at Maryland with +3 turnovers. Purdue is much better than Maryland in my opinion who only returned 10 starters, and were -99.3 yards per game in the conference a year ago. |
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09-26-15 | Georgia Tech v. Duke +7.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show | |
Duke +7.5 2.2* play Both teams are off emotional losses from last week, but I think Duke survives them better being at home. Georgia Tech actually lost a bigger game at Notre Dame and the TD loss was much worse as they scored twice in the final minutes. Georgia Tech’s head coach Paul Johnson already called this Duke defense the best he’s seen in 8 years of coaching against them, and while they haven’t played anyone with this good of a defense they have slowly been improving the last few years and are very good against the pass holding opposing QB’s to 48% and the run ranking 19th. The bigger story here is Georgia Tech is likely without some key players in A-back Qua Searcy, and their top receiver Mike Summers. This could lead to QB Justin Thomas trying to make too much happen himself. To me Duke is not that much worse in talent than Georgia Tech, and they are an extremely disciplined team. Both teams are going to like to run the ball more shortening the game, and Duke is just too good in the red zone on defense and on third downs for me to bet against them. I see extreme value in backing Duke this week as they are +10 TFL, +6 sacks, and only get penalized 6 times a game to go along with that they are holding opponents to 18% conversions on third down and haven’t allowed a red zone TD. This one should be a fun one to watch with defense and very low scoring. |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +14 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Oregon State +14 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD I am jumping on Oregon State here, I think this is a tough game for Stanford after they went on the road and beat USC a week ago. I wouldn't typically select a Stanford team as having a hangover, but they could be without Kevin Hogan, but even with Kevin Hogan or a not 100% Kevin Hogan this is far too many points. First of all the oddsmakers set the total at 44 so this is a pretty large spread we are looking at here. I'm going with the large home dog with Gary Anderson coaching up this defense that is really under rated, while we have already seen Stanford's offense look awful in the past. I just don't think you can count on a consistent offense from Stanford week in and week out and I'm still not sold on David Shaw as a coach. The one thing I know is Gary Anderson is going to get the most out of his defense, and they have shown it already in 2015. I also like the fact that Seth Collins, Oregon State's QB is more mobile than Northwestern's QB Thorson. Collins has already rushed for nearly 300 yards on 44 carries. I would not be shocked to see Oregon State pull off the upset, but I think it may be too early in the Gary Anderson era for that. |
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09-24-15 | Cincinnati +10 v. Memphis | Top | 46-53 | Win | 100 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
Cincinnati +10 4.4* NCAAF POD Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis. I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week. Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week. Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's. Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing. Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs. For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now. They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards. The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%. I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters. In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success. This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%. A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year. Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game. Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game. |
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09-19-15 | Utah v. Fresno State +14 | 45-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Fresno State +14 2.2* play I really like Fresno in this game. First of all they did not play nearly as bad as the final score indicated last week against Ole Miss, but any time you give up 70 points you are going to be huge under dogs the next week. This is a buy low situation for me, because I think Fresno State will be an improved team under Tim DeRuyter who is a very good coach. Fresno tough team at home going 18-2 there under DeRuyter. Utah meanwhile comes into this game off high expectations, and everyone is high on this team being ranked in the top 25. However, this is a team that just does not have a very good offense, and they are without a DE and their starting QB for this game. Devonte Booker is their best player at RB, and I just don't see Utah being able to win this game by more than a TD on Booker's back. I expect Booker who had 31 carries last week to get less action with Oregon up next. Utah definitely a tough situational spot after playing a huge game last week against their instate rival of Utah State with a look ahead of Oregon. Utah did win this game 59-27 at home last year, but they are a much better team at home, and were only 13 point favorites in a down year for Fresno. I think Utah's offense is worse than last year, and I believe Fresno actually improves on their record from last year. Don't be surprised to see a very tight match up in the second half here. |
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09-19-15 | California v. Texas +6.5 | Top | 45-44 | Win | 101 | 44 h 2 m | Show |
Texas +6.5 +101 5.5* NCAAF POD Texas was a 9.5 point favorite in this game a month ago, and perception has definitely left us with great value. Even in Texas win last week they looked terrible, but had a 42-14 lead late which was lost leaving bettors upset with the final 42-28 score. So now we have 2 teams coming in this is our classic buy low, sell high. California bettors are extremely happy covering ATS by a margin of 2 TD’s in both of their games, and now they are an incredible 7 point favorite on the road against Texas! We are already hearing the Charlie Strong should be fired cries, but I actually think Texas is in better shape and I really like their opportunity to pull the upset at home. I’ll take the better defense + nearly a TD every single time at home. Finally Tyrone Swoops seems to be gone and Jerred Heard has taken over after looking very very good against Rice with nearly 100 yards rushing and 130 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 interceptions. Finally Texas might have a balanced offense and they face a Cal team with plenty of issues still on defense especially in the secondary. San Diego State was able to have success against Cal and actually had the advantage in time of possession and I see Texas being able to do the same thing in this game with their offensive line and talented running backs. Cal’s offense has looked great, but a red flag is their inability to convert on third downs at just 36%. This team lost 2 offensive linemen, and they go up against a Texas defense that has a strength in the secondary although it hasn’t showed yet. Texas was also 10th in sack % on defense last year while Cal was 95th in protecting their QB. Goff did not play well against the top pass rush units in the PAC 12 a year ago. There were 4 total teams in the top 25 in pass rush out of the Pac 12 and he avoided 2 of them, and faced 2 at home, but threw just 1 passing TD and had 4 interceptions (Washington/Stanford). Texas is not there yet, but I think the confidence at home and the chip on their shoulder for being a 7 point dog to Cal will bring out the best. |
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09-19-15 | Southern Miss +3 v. Texas State | 56-50 | Win | 100 | 43 h 26 m | Show | |
Southern Miss + 3 3.3* play I like the Golden Eagles in this one, it really reminds me of the Tulsa pick from last week where we had them +4 going on the road against New Mexico coming away with an easy win. We have Southern Miss who are in Todd Monkens third year with 15 returning starters including the QB and all 5 offensive lineman. This team has some solid transfers from Big 12 teams on defense and it has already shown to improve the defense and I really think that could be the difference. Texas State also has a high flying offense so far, but they played much worse vs. a power 5 conference against Florida State they were -300+ yards, while Southern Miss held their own only -29 yards against Miss State. Southern Miss is a program with a winning pedigree, 19 straight winning seasons before the last 3 years, and now this is a key game in determining whether they get back to a bowl game. Texas State has not been in the FBS very long and they beat Southern Miss 2 years ago on the road with a lot of help. They were -200 yards in that game, but were lucky enough to have 6 turnovers. I expect a different outcome here on Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | NC State v. Old Dominion +18.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 23 m | Show | |
Old Dominion +18.5 3.3* play I can’t help but play this game here as the match up and situation really favors Old Dominion. First of all they have already sold out their 20,000 seat stadium as they host a power 5 conference team for the first time and it’s NC State who had 9 wins a year ago. NC State has one of the easiest schedules this year so I feel like most people just are not up to date with where this team is and that’s giving us plenty of value to play this game at this number. Old Dominion lost on the road by 12 last year, but played right with NC State until giving up two 4th quarter TD’s that changes the game. This is a different season for Old Dominion they lost their talented QB, and top WR, but return all 5 along the offensive line along with their talented RB Ray Lawry who is leading the nation in rushing. This team was able to run on the road last year against NC State as Lawry had 3 rushing TD’s and we have already seen some red flags with NC State early allowing Troy one of the worst teams in the country to average nearly 5 yards per carry in week 1 and were only +145 yards at home. NC State has issues in the trenches that won’t allow them to dominate against a team that does not get nearly the top tier recruits as they do. I’m expecting a big day from Lawry as this offense is now running it 50 times a game as opposed to 30 last year. Bobby Wilder is a very good head coach and seems to get the best out of his players so I’ll take the points especially since this team has started 0-2 ATS, we are certainly catching a bit of line value. |
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09-19-15 | Auburn +7 v. LSU | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 6 m | Show | |
Auburn +7 3.3* play Auburn’s stock has taken a complete 180 in 2 weeks and after nearly losing to an FCS foe Jacksonville State we have a good amount of value going into LSU. A few things here, Jeremy Johnson is not as good as we thought, but he can only improve. I expect Gus Malzahn to really put him in a better position to be successful this week on the road against a very challenging LSU defense. I actually like that this game will be played at 3:30 instead of at night. LSU, has their all world RB in Fournette, but they aren’t getting anything from their QB play from Brandon Harris. I think it’s a huge issue going into this game and I feel Will Muschamp should be able to put together a game plan to stop a one dimensional offense to stay within a TD. Auburn returns 8 starters from last year on defense, and they held Fournette in check then. I think he has a big game, but I believe Auburn will be able to win the battle in the red zone which will keep them in this game. |
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09-19-15 | Central Michigan +7.5 v. Syracuse | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +7.5 -105 3.3* play Too much value in this line despite a lopsided match up a year ago as Syracuse won 40-3, but a lot has changed as the Orange return only 10 starters with almost everyone on their defense having to be replaced. The MAC has looked extremely good early this season and Central Michigan return their starting QB Cooper Rush who led this offense last year ranking 16th in QB rating and 50th in passing yards per game a year ago which does not look good for the Syarcuse defensive backfield that is extremely green. Syracuse gave up 373 passing yards to an anemic Wake Forest team a week ago. Syracuse could also be looking ahead here to hosting LSU next week while Central Michigan also has a big road game they know they need to win these type of games. CMU was very respectable against an Oklahoma State team in week 1 that returned 16 returnign starters and actually outgained them through 3 quarters with a lead in the third. Syracuse only returns 10 guys, and already lost their QB. Syracuse has also had major issues in the red zone which have dated back to last season. They were just 40% in red zone TD% a year ago and were 0-3 vs. Wake Forest last week. Central Michigan is much stronger vs. the run returning everyone of note on their defensive line which is where they had struggles a year ago. Overall I see a better performance from the Chippewas. You have to also consider they were just coming off a big road win at Purdue before hosting Syracuse and I expect them to really push Syracuse who has looked better in the box score than they actually are. |
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09-19-15 | Wake Forest v. Army +6 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 37 h 39 m | Show | |
Army +6 -108 2.2* play Wake Forest returns 14 starters, but only 6 are seniors, their lowest total since 1944. These two teams have met 3 times in the last 3 years and Army is home for the 2nd time overall. Total yards in the series goes to Army who is +7, but is 0-3. Wake Forest certainly has an under rated defense, but they have not been able to keep this triple option in tack over the years, and they struggled with Syracuse who also lacks a passing threat. Coming into this season Wake Forest’s offensive line was supposed to be much improved, but I’m doubting it already. There was not a worse offensive line in the country a year ago as they allowed 48 sacks, and only rushed for 40 yards per game (1.3 ypc). This year they have already been sacked 7 times and their QB has thrown 3 interceptions. Army now 0-2, is in a must win situation, and I think Jeff Monken is a very good coach. I don’t see the improvement early with Wake Forest and for that reason I can only expect a back and forth game. Army needs win on third down and if they do they win this game. It will be tight and I’ll take the home dog every time in this situation. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +6 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman. This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1. Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week. Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs. They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway. This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one. Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet. Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino. Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter. Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster. Given who they have played there are some really big red flags. Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc. Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense. Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL. The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition. We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches. Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone. Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball. For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well! |
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09-12-15 | UCLA -30 v. UNLV | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
UCLA -30 3.3* PLAY This is almost a blind play for me as it falls under my formula’s 16-3 ATS record system. This is Jim Mora’s most talented team, and he hasn’t played a team this bad in his tenure at UCLA since maybe perhaps New Mexico State in 2013 (59-13 W). UCLA brings back 18 starters, and the biggest question mark was the QB, and that got answered the first week of the season. 5 star QB Josh Rosen looked every bit of the hype as he completed 80% of his passes with 3 TD and 0 INT’s against a very good defense in Virginia. Virginia was ranked 25th in yards per play allowed last season under 5yds per play, and Rosen and company put up 7. Virginia’s secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of the unit and again they really struggled against Rosen and now all of a sudden UCLA is a very scary team. UNLV is in for a long season, and I think we get value with this line, because they had a pretty good showing against Northern Illinois, a big name program out of the MAC, but this team still returns just 10 starters from a year ago and feature a head coach from the high school ranks with no head coaching experience. This is a team that was much better last year that lost by 45 to Arizona. This is almost a blind play for me as it falls under my formula’s 16-3 ATS record system. This is Jim Mora’s most talented team, and he hasn’t played a team this bad in his tenure at UCLA since maybe perhaps New Mexico State in 2013 (59-13 W). UCLA brings back 18 starters, and the biggest question mark was the QB, and that got answered the first week of the season. 5 star QB Josh Rosen looked every bit of the hype as he completed 80% of his passes with 3 TD and 0 INT’s against a very good defense in Virginia. Virginia was ranked 25th in yards per play allowed last season under 5yds per play, and Rosen and company put up 7. Virginia’s secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of the unit and again they really struggled against Rosen and now all of a sudden UCLA is a very scary team. UNLV is in for a long season, and I think we get value with this line, because they had a pretty good showing against Northern Illinois, a big name program out of the MAC, but this team still returns just 10 starters from a year ago and feature a head coach from the high school ranks with no head coaching experience. This is a team that was much better last year that lost by 45 to Arizona. |
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09-12-15 | Temple v. Cincinnati -6.5 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 23 m | Show | |
Cincinnati -6.5 1.1* Play w/ Teaser Bonus Indiana -1.5 / Cincinnati -0.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week I love this teaser we have two teams going on the road after they had huge wins against in state rivals. Hangover effect along with line value based on perception after their big wins. Indiana -1.5 – I like this bet, because we fall into a buy low and sell high approach with Indiana almost losing to an FCS team allowing 47 points while FIU won on the road against an in state rival in UCF as a 17 point dog. I think it’s a lot to ask FIU to travel all the way up here and get a win. Their defense looked great, but Central Florida’s offense is among the worst and Indiana has weapons and a balanced offense with Nate Sudfeld returning along with the RB transfer in Jordan Howard who rushed for 1600 yards last year for UAB. The loss of Tevin Coleman won’t hurt as much and I think Indiana will improve vs. the run. FIU has a very young QB and no wide receivers so I expect Indiana to be able to win this game with offense behind their HC Kevin Wilson. Cincinnati -0.5 – Temple comes off their biggest win in team history. There is no way they don’t have some type of hang over in this game against the Bearcats who are favored to win the AAC. Cinci also features 5 star QB in Gunner Kiel, and he’s behind a much better offensive line and system. HE returns 76 starts on the offensive line that allowed just 18 sacks last year (1 to Temple), and 45 tackles for loss. To put it in perspective Penn State allowed 44 sacks, and 99 TFL a year ago. The Bearcats always have an above average defense and at home they are very stingy in the red zone. They return everyone in their secondary that gave PJ Walker issues last year and I don’t see Walker being able to do enough to win this game on the road after last week. Temple’s offensive line also had issues with Penn State allowing 15 tackles for loss last week, and they will have issues running the ball and certainly throwing it. At the end of the day even if this is a close game like many think Cinci is by far the more efficient team in |
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09-12-15 | Tulsa +4 v. New Mexico | 40-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 55 m | Show | |
Tulsa +4 3.3* Play I will take a flyer on Tulsa, a team I really see as making dramatic improvements in 2015 with 16 returning starters and a very exciting offense under Phillip Montgomery, the former Baylor OC. He gets his entire offensive line back, and returns a QB and the top WR’s on the team. This was an offense that was 93rd in the country in yards per play and they will be a top 50 team on offense at least. That’s a major improvement. It showed in week 1 that this offense can and will be dangerous and traveling across the country to face New Mexico won’t be an issue. New Mexico will try to slow the game down with their run first approach which will probably gain over 300 yards, but this is a team that really could not get first downs last year just 29.5% at home a year ago, and they only got into the red zone 30 times overall. Tulsa got there last year without Montgomery 46 times and 6 times in their first game alone. Tulsa actually has the better offense here and should be able to come up with the key stops on defense against a very predictable offense in New Mexico. Tulsa does have talent on defense, and I think they will make enough key stops to win this game outright |
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09-12-15 | Missouri v. Arkansas State +10.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 57 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +10.5 2.2* play This team has 15 returning starters to go along with that they have an athletic dual threat QB that can defeat an SEC defense in Freddie Knighten along with a very good DL. They are used to going on the road to face opponents out of the power 5 conference, but finally they get to host one, and it should be an electric environment as Arkansas State also did multi million dollar renovations to their stadium. This is a very odd spread from a public perception after Arkansas State lost to USC 6-55 on the road, but a closer look and they were only -100 yards, but had 4 turnovers. Freddie Knighten is a very good QB, and has rebounded quite well over the course of his career and I expect him to play one of his best games yet in a night game at home. This has the potential of an upset and one of the best games in Arkansas State’s history, but it will take them winning the turnover battle against Missouri. |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
Colorado State +5 5.5* NCAAF POD Colorado State did lose a lot in the offseason. They lost their QB to the NFL, their head coach to Florida, and their top 2 tacklers on defense, but they do return 15 starters. They hire Georgia’s OC Mike Bobo, and return arguably the best WR in the nation in Rashard Higgins along with 4 of the top 5 receivers from last season. This was a very very good home team last year which I expect to continue, and they will host Minnesota in a game they had to have circled before the season. This is a tough spot for Minnesota going on the road and into altitude after facing TCU, a preseason favorite and nearly upsetting them. Minnesota returns just 12 starters and they lost their best receiving option and runner in David Cobb who had 1629 yards last year. Jerry Kill is a very good coach, but on the road this team seems to be not as good. I really like what Colorado State did with their coaching staff and I think the defense will improve with the addition of Tyson Somers and a senior laden defense that should be able to defend against a one dimensional offense like Minnesota. Colorado State was very good at home on defense in stopping teams on third down (37%) and in the red zone (60% TD’s), and Minnesota just was not the same with a QB rating that went down 18 points on the road, and a rushing attack that also went down by more than 1 yard per carry. This is a nice value play for us here on Colorado State who will start the game in a no huddle and keep Minnesota off guard this entire game. I expect them to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset. |
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09-12-15 | Kansas State v. Texas-San Antonio +17 | 30-3 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 6 m | Show | |
UTSA +17.5 2.2* Early Bird Shocker Larry Coker is an excellent coach, but his opponent Bill Snyder is even better. However, this is a very challenging spot for Kansas State who return just 12 starters, and Snyder only picked up 1 JUCO transfer in the off season when he is used to picking up 4. To make matters worse Kansas State lost their starting QB, and best defensive player Safety Dante Barnett. UTSA also lost a ton of players, but they refilled the positions nicely with transfers and it seems to be already paying dividends as they nearly shocked Arizona on the road 32-42. They even outgained Arizona significantly and this offense definitely has the ability and athleticism to give Kansas State some fits. On the flip side Kansas State’s offense is very methodical and will try to slow this game down which makes 17 points a ton of points. It’s hard not to over react to UTSA’s impressive showing in week 1. I wish I got this at 21, but I still feel it’s a strong play as UTSA will have 40,000 fans cheering them on at home. Not very typical of a Conference USA program. |
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09-11-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Florida Atlantic +19 | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic +19 3.3* We saw a similar story last Friday with Michigan State going to Western Michigan as a 17-18 point favorite. In state game, and big opportunity for the non-major to get some exposure with the major program possibly looking ahead to their next game (Oregon). Miami is not nearly as well coached, and are looking ahead to Nebraska whom they lost to a year ago. Florida Atlantic has enough fire power on offense behind a veteran and efficient QB in Jacquez Johnson to give Miami a scare. Johnson had a 167.7 QB rating in 2014 at home with 12 TD to just 1 INT. Miami only brings back 11 starters, and loses 3 guys on the offensive line. This team was 1-4 on the road last year, and they will be playing in front of a sold out crowd as FAU will host a power 5 team for the first time ever. Can the unthinkable happen? Probably not, but FAU should be set up to play their best game of the year. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14.5 | 42-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech +14.5 3.3* play Shop around, and grab 14.5 if you can. Ohio State comes in with more hype than any team in the country, along with the "revenge" factor on many bettors' minds. I just do not see a 14 point spread here as something Ohio State will cover on the road in hostile environment on national TV. There are several reasons why one would like Ohio State in this game, I mean they return 14 starters and are completely loaded at each level on both offense and defense, but suspensions hurt them for this game, and so does the fact that they are returning champions. I also don't really see this as a revenge game considering Ohio State went on to win the national championship and this game happened back in week 2 of 2014. Virginia Tech should be pumped up for this game and they return 16 starters. A defense that held the Ohio State offense to just 327 yards in their own building. Ohio State's offensive line is much improved, but Virginia Tech was breaking in a lot of 1st time starters and they will have the deepest defensive line in the country with the additional of Maddy coming back after missing the 2014 season. Both teams have the weakness of run defense, but I'll give the edge to Virginia Tech there considering they are at home. Ohio State lost their 2nd and 3rd best ends, and Joey Bosa will miss this game. Ohio State was 89th in power success rate and 77th at stuff rate in run defense and Virginia Tech has 2 under rated running backs in JC Coleman and Marshawn Williams. In the end this is a close game. I may hedge my bet a little with live in game betting if I can get Ohio State under a TD, because Virginia Tech should get out to an early lead. Although Tech is 18-1 in their last 19 home openers. |
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09-06-15 | Purdue +7.5 v. Marshall | 31-41 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Purdue +7.5 3.3* I will take Purdue here in their third year under Darrell Hazell I think they will be involved in some close games against teams with equal talent. They do not have a bigger game next week so to get their season going this is the game they need to win. In 2013 this team was terrible, but there were noticeable differences in 2014 as this team improved to -241 ypg in conference play to -93 and were involved in many close games against Big Ten foe. I'm most excited about this offensive line that returns everyone and improved from 104th adjusted line yards in 2013 to 47th. They should be even better this year and I expect them to be able to run to set up the pass here today on the road against a vulnerable Marshall run defense which was mediocre last year. Purdue's defense also improved last year from 83rd in 2013 to 53rd, they are young and play very good fundamentally and should be a bend but don't break type defense. I think Marshall may have troubles in the red zone considering they break in a new QB. Marshall loses their 4 year starting QB in Cato, an 1100 yard WR and 11 other starters. They will still be very good and have a ton of talent at the skill position. I expect them to turn to Devon Johnson early at RB and that should lean to a lower scoring game. Keep in mind Marshall did not play a power 5 school last year at all, and their stock is still sky high off their season a year ago. I just think Purdue has a ton to improve, and their stock is heading in that direction, but hidden in the Big Ten. Nobody seems to see Purdue's improving, and the public perception is "same old Purdue," but I think this team is coming into the right situation today and will have a shot at the upset. |
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09-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Southern Miss +21.5 | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Southern Miss +21.5 4.4* NCAAF POD If there was ever a shot for Southern Miss to prove that they are turning this program around it's tonight. Dan Mullen, HC of Miss State is already crying about the game start, and that defenitely trickles down to the players. I believe Mullen is possibly the worst coach in the SEC, and I picked Miss State to finish last in the talented SEC West. Miss State returns just 7 overall starters, but it feels like more, because they have the face of their program in Dak Prescott returning, but this team really struggled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games, and I don't know that they can just hit that switch in game 1 in an instate road game with so many new guys filling in at new positions. Southern Miss on the other hand is definitely on the rise. Todd Monkens 3rd year should pay dividends and people forget that this program had 19 straight winning seasons before their 4-32 record over the last 3 years. Southern Miss has 15 guys returning, including their QB and all 5 of their offensive linemen. This team should be much improved and I actually like their rebuilt defense which is filled in with transfers, but solid ones. To start the season they will have two 300lb linemen in Quincy Russel and Andrew Bolton transfers from Texas and Kansas. I also think Dak Prescott will be surprised if he tries to attack Southern Miss backfield which is under rated. Miss State also has LSU up next, and can't be taking this team seriously. We saw similar results last night with a better version of in state match ups between Michigan State and Western Michigan. We are getting a worse power 5 school, and more points to work with and I love our chances here. Western Michigan lost by just 13 and were driving late to pull within a score. |
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09-05-15 | Old Dominion v. Eastern Michigan +5 | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Eastern Mich + 5 3.3* play Call me crazy, but i like Eastern Michigan to pull the upset even here. This is not an easy game for Old Dominion to just walk into and walk out with a win. First of all Old Dominion lost the face of their program in Taylor Heinickie, the do all QB and replace him with a red shirt freshmen in Shuler. Shuler will be find in the end, but has to make his debut on the road on grey truf, and against Eastern Michigan's LB's who in my opinion are the best in the MAC. They even have the intimidating names of good LB's in Great Ibe, Anthony Zappone, and Hunter Matt. For Eastern Michigan this is a chance to get the season going in the right direction and I believe Chris Creighton is an excellent coach and he now has an experience QB in Reggie Bell, who can beat you with his feet and through the air. Old Dominion has to replace 4 guys in their front 7 on defense and were not good on defense to begin with last year. I expect Eastern Mich to be able to stay in this game and have a chance to win it late. In last year's game on the road at Old Dominion they were down just 10-3 in the 4th before allowing a punt return for a TD. They also fumbled it 5 times int hat game, and were -18 in turnover margin. The Philsteele laws say that a team wit double digit negative TO margin improves the next year 79% of the time dating back to 1991. They have all the signs of that happening. Eastern Mich has depth issues and special teams issues for sure, but Old Dominion's special teams have not been great either 127th last year, and I don't see Eastern Michigan's depth issues being a factor in week 1. Old Dominion also is looking ahead to week 2 when they face Norfolk State at home, whose campus is 5 miles away. I think there is an excellent chance Eastern Mich can steal this game or at least cover the spread. |
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09-05-15 | Stanford v. Northwestern +12 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show | |
Northwestern +12 3.3* Early Bird Special This is a very early start for a west coast team coming to play with a lot of question marks after losing 9 starters on defense. Northwestern has had back to back dissapointing seasons, but there were some good moments last year like when they beat NOtre Dame and Washington. They will have a 4star QB in Clayton Thorson starting and he'll hand it off to returning RB Justin Jackson. They are 7-1 in their last 8 home openers. Their defense was very good last year and will be even better and more athletic this year. They have All Big-10 candidates at each level including DE Dean Lowry, LB - Anthony Walker, and CB NIck Van House. Fitzgerald is a defensive guy and he has his best defense yet. Stanford comes in and their offense will be better, but I don't see them beating a defense like this by double digits. Kevin Hogan has been around forever, but has yet to prove he can win on the road. Last year Stanford QB's had a 167 QB rating in wins and 113 in losses, and their QB rating on the road was 30 points lower than at home. The run defense also started to slip on the road last year and now having to replace 9 guys is just too much to ask. They may very well win this game, but two teams that love to play in close battles. I'm going to back the team with a good defense getting double digits at home every time. Stanford also last year was a team that could not finish teams down the stretch like they were able to in previous years. Stanford ranked top 40 in adjusted offense in the first two quarters of a game, but in the bottom 40 in the last 2 quarters of the game. |
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09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +7 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Hawaii +7.5 4.4* POD Both of these teams head into the 2015 season with high hopes for improving and there are a lot of things to like about each for achieving that goal, but I think Hawaii really needs this game more, and Colorado's defense could have a hard time in this game. Hawaii brings in USC transfer QB Max Wittek to take over an offense that returns 2 of their top receivers in Pedroza and Kemp and they bring in an offensive coordinator for the first time under Norm Chow. Chow must really be a control freak, but he's on the hot seat and knows he had to do this. Don Bailey comes over and he will feature an uptempo attack that he ran at FCS Idaho State. Bailey brought Idaho State out of nowhere and they ranked 1st in passing offense and 2nd in total offense among FCS teams. This offense will undoubtedly improve and they'll face Colorado whose ranked 116th, 110th, and 124th the last 3 years in yards per play allowed. Hawaii was actually better than their record indicated last year with 4 net closes losses of 10 points. They lost to open last year to Washington out of the PAC 12 by 1 point, and they'll face a Colorado team that is not as good as the Washington team was. Colorado does have a very good QB, and WR tandem, but they showed an inability to close games last year and quickly ran out of options. Hawaii's defense should be exciting in the back 7, and the DL will again have depth issues, but this is game 1 and this team really needs a win when you consider they have road games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise following this game. |
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09-03-15 | Michigan +5 v. Utah | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 27 m | Show |
Michigan +5 5.5* NCAAF POD I love the value we are getting with Michigan here on the road against Utah and I'm going to go ahead and make it an official max play. First of all these two teams have a lot more in common then you'd think. Strong defenses that will rely on the running game to win a game. Both will play in a lot of close games and I can't imagine Michigan not being within a field goal here. Utah's offense took some big hits in terms of playmakers and they go up against a very experienced Michigan defense. I expect it to be a very low scoring game. Utah's strength of a pass rush should not play a part on Thursday night I just don't see Iowa transfer Jake Rudock being asked to do a ton other than not turning the ball over. Michigan was -16 in turnover margin last year and are among the teams that have a great chance at improving. Since 1991 teams with -10 or more TO margin 79% improved or stayed the same. The additiona of Jake Rudock from Iowa - 16TD / 5 INT will almost certainly guarantee that. Utah also did not have the home field advantage it previously had losing to Washington State and Oregon last year and beating USC by 3. Utah has a bigger game the following week against in state rival Utah State. For Michigan this is a bigger game and Jim Harbaugh's coming out party. It's rare that you will get a team like Michigan with an elite defense as a 5 point under dog on the road to open the season against a team whose offense returns just 6 starters and ranked 98th in yards per play on offense. Bottom line... Michigan's defense is stronger - top 10 run defense home and away, they both have similar offenses with QB's that did not turn the ball over last year, and both can stop the run, but I believe Michigan is just a bit better on defense, and running the ball, and the coaching has improved significantly with a team that has always had more talent. Jim Harbough in his past has taken a bit of time improving his teams, but his last two stops in college were San Diego taking them 7-4, and then 22-2 after, STanford was 16-40 before Harbough got there then went 9-15 and 20-6. However, Harbough never got this much talent right away and I think the results should be truly amazing with a ton of close games because of this defense. |
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09-03-15 | Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt | 14-12 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 0 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt pk 3.3* ODDSMAKER ERROR Well I'm jumping on Vandy on opening night, and I expect I'll be in the minority, but that's okay. I'm about winning money and I see value in this line ans so do my formulas. Derek Mason is coming into his second year at Vandy, and his schedule is extremely tough. This may actually be one of the winnable games on the schedule. Vanderbilt has serious questions on offense, but this is a very nice game to open up to as Western Kentucky was 119th in yards per play allowed. You won't find a team on Vanderbilt's schedule last year that was as bad. Vanderbilt will get 18 starters back from last year including 93 career starts along the offensive line. When this team was able to run the ball they put up points in 2014, and I expect that will be the focus here on Thursday which they should be able to do with Ralph Webb returning after a quality year and the fact that WKU allowed 5.35 ypc on the road and they allowed a 163 QB rating. I look for Vanderbilt to keep the ball away from the Hilltoppers explosive and talented offense led by Brandon Doughty. Speaking of Doughty, there has been a lot of hype from his season a year ago and he has the majority of everyone back, but I see this offensive line having some issues on Thursday night after losing their best lineman to graduation. I also think we have value considering Doughty is getting a lot of press, and this is a very similar match up that Vanderbilt had last year with Old Dominion and a senior QB Taylor Heincke. Vanderbilt won that game comfortably, and are 16-3 in their last 4 years in non-conference games. |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State +7 bovada 5.5* MAX POD / Ohio State +185 2* bonus Oregon and Ohio State are very similar teams in statistical breakdowns. I think both of their scores are a bit misleading from the semifinals. Both were +110 or more yards over their opponent, but as we all know now Ohio State did it against a better opponent than Oregon. We are still catching a TD dog at many books here and I'm even going to play Ohio State on the money line for a 2* bonus. The Big Ten has gotten crap all season long and then it looked worse when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech. However, this bowl season the Big Ten has some pretty singificant wins on their resume including Michigan State over Baylor, Rutgers over UNC in blowout fashion, Penn State over BC, Wisconsin beat Auburn and Nebraska hung with USC and lost by 3. I watched the entire Oregon vs Florida State game 2 times this week after watching it live and Florida State really moved the ball up and down the field and had over 500 yards of offense. I see no reason why Ohio State can not do the same thing. People keep doubting Cardale Jones, but Urban Meyer has always had a top QB and he's prove that he puts them in a system or scenarios that have a long history of success. Jones did not seem to be phased one bit in the game against mighty Alabama while if you go back and watch the first half of the Oregon game, Marcus Mariotta really took a while to get going and in the first half he really was not off to a great start. This Florida State team flat out gave up after Cook fumbled the ball twice and from there it was just a domino effect. Cook was having a great game as well, but after he was benched the Florida State offense really did not have the same impact. Ezekial Elliot is not going to fumble multiple times and Urban Meyer will be sure as hell they don't turn the ball over 5 times or allow 35 points off turnovers. I still think if you had Oregon play Florida State again I would take the points again because this was a ball game until the shit hit the fan with the turnovers. A few things here - Ohio State is a much better defense ranking 11th in yards per play allowed compared to Florida State ranking 66th and even Oregon at 53. Now Oregon does have the better offense, but I can see Ohio State controlling this game on the ground. And no it's not because I think Oregon is "soft." I hope to hell we don't have to hear that brought up all game again. In the end I'm taking the far better coach with the far better track record as a TD dog. I'll also take them on the money line and hedge in live game if we need to. |
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01-04-15 | Toledo v. Arkansas State +4 | 63-44 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Arkansas State +3.5 4.4* POD I like Arkansas State here you really can't bet a MAC team as a favorite right now as they have gone 1-3 in Bowl games in a year the conference has been way down. Sure Toledo has fire power, but overall they did it against a little bit of an easier schedule. I'm impressed with what Arkansas State did earlier in their schedule when they were fresh in stopping the run against 3 good teams in Tennessee, Miami, and Utah State. Their offense even ran the ball for 100+ yards on Utah State in their win which is tough to do. When you look at it Arkansas State is a balanced offense they can run and they can throw behind the arm of Fredi Knighten who is also a running QB to go along with home run hitting RB Mike Gordon. I don't know that Toledo has faced an offense this balanced all year. When Arkansas State has faced a passing defense this bad they have put up points, 52, 40, 44, and 68 and while Toledo will have their points too I think Arkansas State will have a better time converting and keeping drives going. Arkansas State's defense has allowed 34% conversions compared to Toledo's 44% and 60% out of conference. Arkansas State also has forced 27 turnovers while Toledo has only had 12 and 8 of their 11 opponents have had a higher QB rating than their season average. The good passing teams had exceptional games against this defense and Knighten is very good and has not given the ball up too much. Arkansas State is also in a familiar bowl making their 4th appearance in the GoDaddy Bowl so this should be a piece of cake for them having defeated 2 MAC teams the last 2 years. The Sun Belt has also won their other two bowl games with Georgia Southern and UL Lafayette. |
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01-03-15 | East Carolina +7 v. Florida | 20-28 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
East Carolina +248 2.5* play I'm just going to take the Pirates on the money line here. They are a more complete and cohesive unit that is getting downgraded here because they lost to Central Florida on a hail mary. It was just poor coaching and clock management otherwise we would be looking at an East Carolina team that would be a 4 or 5 point under dog, but instead we get them at a TD. I just don't see Florida's motivation here to win this game either. Florida may even be using this game as a tryout for some players while East Carolina's senior laden group is going to try to win another big game over a big time program. East Carolina already went on the road out of conference play and gave South Carolina all they had early in the season and they defeated Virginia Tech along with North Carolina out of the ACC. This is a team with a lot of offensive fire power and a defense that can come up big in key spots as well. |
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01-02-15 | Iowa v. Tennessee -3 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
[b]Tennessee -2.5 -120 4.5* play [/b] I like the Vols here in this spot. I don't put a tremendous weight on strength of schedule, but this match up goes over exactly that, because we simply can not ignore the differences here. First off I mentioned in many of my write ups yesterday that the Big Ten is not as bad as people were saying and they went 3-1 yesterday and were under dogs in all 4 games. The 3 wins were the top 3 Big Ten teams and I do think the rest of the Big Ten is just not that good. Iowa for instance had the 80th ranked strength of schedule and who did they beat? Only 2 bowl teams and one was Pitt, the youngest team in the country early in the year and the other was Illinois who might have been the worst bowl team. Tennessee on the other hand had to play Ole Miss and Alabama from the SEC West, and they played Oklahoma in non-conference play which was good for the 11th toughest schedule. This is an extremely under rated defense that is going to give Iowa a ton of issues. I think the extra practice time is going to benefit Tennessee the most who has more talent that have progressed throughout the year. Butch Jones is also a solid coach that is starting to build this team the way he was hired to do so. The biggest thing I have uncovered from looking at this game is that Tennessee should be able to run and stop the run which is the biggest key to the game. Tennessee 4.08 ypc in their wins and 2.51 ypc in their losses. Now this is where their SOS comes into play having faced 7 top 50 run stopping units 6 of those 7 were actually top 30 and they went 1-6 against them. Now they'll face Iowa who is ranked 72nd vs. the run. Iowa typically known for their run defense but this year it was their pass defense and I think Tennessee will get some easy third downs to pick up here. I think it also helps to have Dobbs, a running QB and the fact they are going up against a weaker run defense for a change. On the flip side Iowa 4.41 ypc in wins and 3.13 in losses while Tennessee is 52nd vs. the run and that won't impress you they did face 7 top 50 rushing units this year with their schedule while Iowa's 87th ranked rushing until face just 2 teams ranked in the top 75 in rushing defense. Yet they still were only able to average 3.9 ypc and they lost to both who were capable of stopping the run. That typically made Iowa turn to the pass 54% of the time which is not like them. Tennessee also has a very good secondary that has more interceptions than TD's allowed. Their front also is ranked 9th in sack %. Iowa was -5 in turnover margin and I see the ingredients for them to lose that battle again here today. |