11-28-20 |
Kansas State +6.5 v. Baylor |
|
31-32 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama |
|
13-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Pittsburgh v. Clemson -22.5 |
|
17-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-20 |
Georgia Southern +2.5 v. Georgia State |
|
24-30 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-20 |
Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina |
|
31-17 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-20 |
Nebraska +14 v. Iowa |
|
20-26 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-20 |
Iowa State v. Texas +1 |
|
23-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7 |
|
13-41 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Tennessee v. Auburn -10.5 |
|
17-30 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 |
|
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-20 |
Indiana v. Ohio State -20.5 |
|
35-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
37 h 6 m |
Show
|
OHio State -20.5 2.2% play
|
11-18-20 |
Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 |
|
45-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
11-15-20 |
California v. UCLA +4 |
|
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
Northwestern v. Purdue +3.5 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-126 |
25 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
Fresno State v. Utah State +10 |
|
35-16 |
Loss |
-101 |
23 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
TCU +3 v. West Virginia |
|
6-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-20 |
Penn State v. Nebraska +3.5 |
|
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
11-13-20 |
Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 |
|
35-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Clemson -5.5 v. Notre Dame |
|
40-47 |
Loss |
-109 |
29 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Texas A&M v. South Carolina +10 |
|
48-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
28 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Baylor v. Iowa State -13.5 |
|
31-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
28 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Florida v. Georgia -3 |
Top |
44-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
25 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 |
|
7-49 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Michigan -3.5 v. Indiana |
|
21-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-20 |
Nebraska +4 v. Northwestern |
|
13-21 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
11-06-20 |
San Jose State +10 v. San Diego State |
|
28-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
San Diego State v. Utah State +8.5 |
|
38-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
Ohio State -10 v. Penn State |
|
38-25 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
Boise State v. Air Force +14 |
|
49-30 |
Loss |
-107 |
27 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State |
|
41-34 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
TCU -2.5 v. Baylor |
|
33-23 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
10-30-20 |
Hawaii v. Wyoming -1 |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 45 m |
Show
|
Wyoming -1 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
10-29-20 |
South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -3 |
|
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Michigan -3 v. Minnesota |
|
49-24 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Iowa State +3 v. Oklahoma State |
|
21-24 |
Push |
0 |
24 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Auburn -3.5 v. Ole Miss |
|
35-28 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Temple +13.5 v. Memphis |
|
29-41 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
10-23-20 |
UL-Lafayette -3 v. UAB |
|
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Boston College v. Virginia Tech -11.5 |
|
14-40 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 |
Top |
28-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 36 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Central Florida -3 v. Memphis |
|
49-50 |
Loss |
-105 |
39 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Louisville +17 v. Notre Dame |
|
7-12 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL |
|
19-31 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 32 m |
Show
|
Pitt +14 buy half point 4% pal y
|
10-16-20 |
BYU v. Houston +5.5 |
|
43-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 |
|
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Tennessee v. Georgia -12.5 |
|
21-44 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Duke v. Syracuse +2 |
|
38-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Virginia Tech +4.5 v. North Carolina |
|
45-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 53 m |
Show
|
Virginia Tech +4.5 2.2% play
|
10-10-20 |
Oklahoma v. Texas +3 |
|
53-45 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
Texas +3 2.2% play I will take the more experienced QB who is less likely to make big mistakes in this game. Oklahoma is not nearly as dynamic as years past, and starting a red shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler, who has been great number wise, but he really does not have a lot of help around him. From his offensive line, running game, or defense. What happens is he presses late, and tries to do it all when the game is on the line. It leads to costly turnovers. Texas is desparate for a win here, and Tom Herman knows it. Herman has been a great coach as a dog throughout his career, and now that this has ticked up to +3, with 80% of the $ on Oklahom from one source, I'm a buyer on Texas.
|
10-09-20 |
Louisville -4.5 v. Georgia Tech |
|
27-46 |
Loss |
-111 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
LOuisville -4.5 2.2% play
|
10-08-20 |
Tulane v. Houston -6.5 |
|
31-49 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
10-03-20 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State +7.5 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 24 m |
Show
|
Iowa State +7.5 1.1% fre ePLay
|
10-03-20 |
Arkansas +17 v. Mississippi State |
|
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 23 m |
Show
|
Arkansas +17 3.3% play Miss State is not only in a major let down spot after upsetting last years National Championship LSU as a 14 point dog, but that leads to a very inflated line in the early season going, that I just don’t agree with. 75% of the tickets are being placed on Miss State based on what they saw a week ago, and the final score in the Arkansas/Georgia game. Both teams here are breaking in new head coaches, and Mike Leach has made his statement on the 2020 season, but it shouldn’t be a complete shock when you consider LSU lost both of their coordinators, 15 players to the NFL, multiple opt outs, and their coordinators brought in completely different systems in a shortened off season. Arkansas was impressive for a bit against an incredibly good Georgia team. I really like what this Arkansas team did by bringing in Sam Pittman who brough over OC Kendal Briles form FSU, and Barry Odom as their DC (formerly Missouri). Arkansas has veteran players on both sides of the ball including Florida transfer Feleipe Franks. Worth noting is there have been just 7 teams in the SEC who won as a 14 point dog in the last 10 years, and those teams are just 1-6 SU & ATS the following week.
|
10-03-20 |
Missouri +13 v. Tennessee |
|
12-35 |
Loss |
-109 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
10-02-20 |
Louisiana Tech +24 v. BYU |
|
14-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
09-26-20 |
Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 |
|
31-27 |
Push |
0 |
28 h 44 m |
Show
|
South Carolian +4 3.3% play
|
09-26-20 |
Kansas State v. Oklahoma -27.5 |
|
38-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
09-26-20 |
Florida -13.5 v. Ole Miss |
|
51-35 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
09-26-20 |
Kentucky +7.5 v. Auburn |
|
13-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
09-25-20 |
Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA |
|
35-37 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
09-19-20 |
Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5 |
|
49-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 59 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech +7.5 2.2% play Normally you'd want ot fade a team after a double digit upset on the road, but here we have a unique situation with Georgia Tech returning home, and is over a TD under dog against a non-power 5 team. I think it certainly catches their attention, and I believe they played better than the final score indicated against Florida State. Meanwhile, you have UCF who has not played a game yet. Jeff Sims will get to start at home here, and the freshmen QB was really impressive throwing for 277 yards, and adding 64 rushing yards. He seems like a real leader, and I expect him to keep his team in the game. On UCF's sideline they lose some talent on defense, but bring back the majority of their starters including QB Dillon Gabriel, but their offensiveline is very inexperienced, and we saw Geoff Collins have his defense ready against a FSU offensive line a week ago. I think we could see more of that here. As I mentioned last week when we picked Georgia Tech to cover, 2nd year head coaches in the Power 5 are 55% ATS as a dog. Georgia Tech also the slowest team in the nation last year and they should opt to do that here going up against UCF who wants to go fast.
|
09-12-20 |
Georgia Tech +13 v. Florida State |
|
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
09-12-20 |
Arkansas State +13 v. Kansas State |
|
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
Arkansas State +13 2.2% Play This line opened up at +10 and has steamed to +13, and I'm going to fade that 3 point line move and come in on the dog. If you fade steam moves of 2+ points in week 1 over the last 3 years, you would go 58% ATS, 69-50! We are getting line value in the number. Also, Kanasas State's 0 spring practices, breaking in a completely new offensive line, and their strategy to hold onto the ball and slow the game down (124th in plays per game last year), should lead to a shortened game, making the 13 points more valuable. The total has also dropped 4 points from 58.5 now down to 54.5. Arkansas State played last week, they also had 11 spring practices, and covered against a much better Memphis team a week ago. They were driving to cut the game to 6 points at the end of the game, but covered the spread despite having 3 turnovers. Bonner/Hatcher combo at QB has worked so far and Blake Anderson seems totally focused on this season, and I could see a potential upset here if Arkansas State can win the turnover battle and get off the field on some third downs.
|
09-07-20 |
BYU v. Navy +1.5 |
|
55-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
09-05-20 |
Arkansas State +18.5 v. Memphis |
|
24-37 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
Arkansas State +18.5 2.2% play
|
09-05-20 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 |
|
0-42 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 21 m |
Show
|
Army -3.5 2.2% play There is line value with an open at 5.5 dropping to 3.5. I always like to fade line movement in the early season, as there are many unknowns, and when you fade that line movement you actually get line value. Middle Tennessee was supposed to play Duke in week 1, and then possibly Troy, but they found out just 3 weeks ago that they will face Army. Now 3 weeks to prepare for the option seems like a long time, but this group and this coaching staff has not seen the triple option since 2013. Middle Tennessee gave up 200+ rushing yards 12 times over the last two years and went 3-9 during that span. They also were 0-6 on the road last year, and their QB Aster O'hara who had a good year last year had a QB rating 40 points lower on the road than at home. He also has to operate as his top two RB just opted out for the 2020 season. Army likely won't have any guys opting out or quitting on their brothers, and it's a huge advantage in my opinion for them to be home in this uncertain times. Jeff Monken is a guy I typically like to back when he's a dog, but as a small favorite against a team that hasn't seen the option, and has question marks on their defense, I think we are getting value here as Army should be able to control the game.
|
01-13-20 |
Clemson +6.5 v. LSU |
Top |
25-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
Clemson +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
01-04-20 |
Tulane v. Southern Miss +8 |
|
30-13 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
Southern Miss +8 3.3% pla y
|
01-02-20 |
Tennessee -3.5 v. Indiana |
|
23-22 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
Tennessee -3.5 2.2% play You may be able to get a better # live. Tennessee's deep threat WR is suspended for the first half so if this is a game early you may be able to get a better # live or at the half. No guarantee on that though, which is why I'm taking it now. Tennessee's average recruiting class is 12 over the last 3 years compared to Indiana's 44th ranking. Indiana has had an impressive season with 8 wins their most in some time, but it is smoke and mirrors. Outside the Penn State game where I believe they caught Penn State at the perfect time following their first loss of the season this team really did not impress me. This is a team that lost to a bad Michigan State team, and only averaged 23.8 poitns per game against top 50 defenses. Here they face a top 50 defense that played even better down the stretch. Indiana was 1-4 vs. TOP 50 Defenses beating only Northwestern who they played at home, and were +3 TO's, and Northwestern was one of the worst teams in the P5 this year if not the worst. Tennessee has always showed up in bowl season, and have dominated bigger and better teams from the Big Ten beating Nebraska in 2017 by 14, beating Northwestern by 39, and Iowa by 17 in 2015. On paper it appears that Indiana has a very good defense, but they rank 69th in passing explosive defense, while Tenn ranks 6th. Their 54th ypp defensive rank comes against an average offensive rank of 81st, and they faced many of those teams with backup or even third string QB's, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern among those. I think Indiana will have issues with the physicality and speed of Tennessee in this game, and they are highly motivated under Jeremy Pruitt to show it off, and build into the 2020 season.
|
01-02-20 |
Boston College +8 v. Cincinnati |
Top |
6-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
Boston College +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD Just 25% of the money coming in on BC, because they are without their head coach, and AJ Dillon also not playing. Dillon's backup David BAiley, is a brusing RB at 240lbs, that the team is excited for. Bailey actually had more yards per carry than Dillon and still rushed for 816 yards. He will be key in this game where the weather is going to play a factor. Expect some wind and rain here, and with both teams running the ball over 60%, handicapping the running game is very critical. Jeff Hafley, the new BC coach will also be in attendance, which is always a good thing for the players who play in a game like this. They typically want to impress their new HC. Boston College has been able to run the ball against everyone but Clemson and Notre Dame, who have superior talent to Cinci. They faced six top 50 rush defenses and they averaged 226 yards per carry. While Cincinnati ranks 27th in ypc, they rank 47th in rushing success defense, and a lot of their success was at home where they allowed 2.66 ypc, 4.52 ypc on the road. They faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses like Boston College and allowed 195.8 yards per game and 4.74 ypc which is about 90th in the country. They went 2-3 in those games, and in their two wins they actually were fortunate as they forced 9 TO's. BC doesn't turn the ball over with just 11 on the year. I think this will be a close game, because BC will have success running the ball. Cinci is also a very good rushing offense with a mobile QB, and BC's defensive weakness is in the secondary, which also makes this a good matchup for BC. They rank 33rd in rushing success, defense. They don't rank well from YPC perspective, but that's because they are prone to giving up explosive runs, which Cinci really is not built on. This will be a close game, I don't see BC losing by more than a TD unless they turn it over and with 11 on the year, while Cinci has turned it over 20 times I don't expect they will lose the TO margin. They also are top 10 in fewest penalty yards per game while Cinci ranks 129th. I wouldn't be shocked to see BC pull the upset in front of their new HC.
|
01-01-20 |
Baylor v. Georgia -4 |
|
14-26 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-20 |
Minnesota v. Auburn -7 |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-19 |
Texas +7.5 v. Utah |
|
38-10 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-19 |
Georgia State v. Wyoming -7 |
|
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-19 |
Kentucky +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
37-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
Kentucky +3 -120 buy 1/2 3% play
|
12-30-19 |
Illinois v. California -5.5 |
|
20-35 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
Cal -6 2.2% play Personally I think Cal is the play here, with Illinois getting over 60% of the tickets and money at the moment, because the mentality of Big 10 > PAC 12. PAC 12 actually was 3-0 SU & ATS vs. the Big 10 this year before Iowa clobbered USC in their bowl game. The PAC 12 5-3 SU & ATS vs. other P5 schools while Big Ten went 2-7 ATS. This game is being played in Santa Clara, CA where Cal will certainly have a crowd edge. Offensively both teams are run first teams that want to protect the ball, but Illinois likes to play with pace ranking 23rd in the country while Cal ranks 90th, and I think that could come back to bite them in this game against Cal's defense. Cal needs to run the ball, and I have reason to believe they can. Illinois has allowed 8 of their 12 opponents to run for 150+ yards this season, and when Cal can do that they average 27 points per game and are 4-0 with wins by 13, 10, 14, and 1 over Washington on the road. When Chase Garbers has been in the lineup for Cal this team exceeds expectations with +18 yards per game vs. what opponents typically give up and they are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Illinois offense ranks 115th in ypp, and they have been outagained by 90 yards per game. They convert just 33% on third down, and rank 92nd in ypc going up against the 20th ranked team. On paper it seems like both of these defenses are even, but Cal ranks 41st in YPP allowed and that comes having faced an average ypp offense ranking 46.7. Compare that with Illinois who ranks 57th, against an average opponent offense ranking 78.25. Illinois played Connecticut, Akron, and Eastern Michigan in their non-conference slate compared to Cal who faced Ole Miss on the road, an SEC team. Illinois defense has been fortunate at times with the turnovers, but Cal has turned the ball over just 9 times all year long, and they have only lost 4 fumbles. I don't think Illinois can rely on winning the TO battle here, and when they don't they are 0-3.
|
12-28-19 |
Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 |
|
29-23 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 4 m |
Show
|
Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2
|
12-28-19 |
Oklahoma v. LSU -13 |
|
28-63 |
Win
|
100 |
344 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
12-28-19 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame |
Top |
9-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
37 h 53 m |
Show
|
Iowa State +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
12-27-19 |
Washington State v. Air Force -2.5 |
|
21-31 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
12-27-19 |
Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest |
|
27-21 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
Michigan STate -3.5 3.3% play
|
12-26-19 |
Miami-FL -6 v. Louisiana Tech |
Top |
0-14 |
Loss |
-104 |
50 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
12-23-19 |
Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida |
|
25-48 |
Loss |
-109 |
66 h 31 m |
Show
|
Marshall +17.5 2.2% play I get why this spread is so high. The oddsmakers are questioning how many points Marshall can score here, and I could see why, but I think Marshall’s defense will keep them in the game, and UCF has been known this season to give up some points after they get big leads. Marshall does have the ingredients to give UCF some issues, as they have a top defensive unit. They are strong vs. the run ranking 35th, and they also have the 18th ranked pass rush, which could allow them to force UCF’s QB into some mistakes in this game. UCF only played two top 30 run defenses and lost both against Pitt, and Cincinnati. In their wins UCF rushes for 5.69 ypc, and their losses they average just 3.10. Again that’s not a huge reason why I’m backing Marshall. I’m backing Marshall, because Doc Holliday cares. He’s 6-0 SU & ATS in bowl games. Marshall also recruits the state of Florida heavily, making this a monster game going against a Florida team in Florida. In fact Marshall has 31 players who are from the state of Florida, and they beat both Florida teams this year. Since 2013 they are 14-3 SU against Florida teams or in games played in the state of Florida including 3-0 in bowl games. UCF’s offense also relies heavily on explosive plays. They are not overly efficient in the red zone, and Marshall is top 40 in explosive plays allowed.
|
12-21-19 |
Washington -3 v. Boise State |
|
38-7 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 33 m |
Show
|
Washington -3 -115 5.5% NCAAF POD This line dropped tonight, and I think it may be a setup for buy back. I don’t expect it to get to 2.5 or anything so I’m fine paying the extra 5% to grab -3 now. It’s not often that you have a P5 team with more motivation, but that is exactly what we have here. Washington at 7-5, did not have a great year, but they played extremely well when they were supposed to. They had double digit leads in the second half against Oregon and Utah, beat USC by 10, and crushed a BYU team that Boise lost to. This will be Chris Peterson’s last game as a head coach, and there are no distractions as they have named the DC Jeremy Lake as the replacement. Even more motivating is the fact that Washington faced Peterson’s former team Boise. Boise State, on the other hand at 12-1 does not want to be back in Vegas. Their head coach has already made several statements about the MWC needing to do a better job marketing itself so it can get better bowls, and he did interview for several P5 jobs. He’s also going to be calling the plays as OC Zak Hill took the same job at Arizona State. When we look at the X’s and O’s you can look at the common opponent BYU, but I look at the fact that Boise has not faced many top defenses. They faced one team in the top 50 in pass defense, and that was Wyoming who held them to 20 points on their own field. Wyoming lost that game because they have no offensive balance, which is not a problem Washington has. Wyoming’s great defensive #’s have also come against an average offense ranking 91st in YPP, while Washington’s have come against an average YPP offense ranking 46th. Their 31st pass defense has come against an average passing offense ranking 46th so this team is battle tested. The only other time Boise faced a defense similar to Washington was Marshall, and again Marshall had a far trip to play on a short week and held Boise to 14 points at home in their own building. I think Boise and this conference is overrated, and the #’s back it up when you look at the fact that the Mountain West went 7-11 ATS vs. other G5 conferences and were -3.7 mov ATS, which was the biggest gap of the G5 conferences. Meanwhile the PAC12 which gets a lot of shit was actually very good this year they went 5-3 ATS vs. P5, and they also went 10-7 ATS vs. G5. Washington will be playing this game without their LT, and TE, but they have depth, and their young defense which has played so well will have the extra time to prepare which can only help them. We saw signs of Washington being that top tier team in the PAC12 several times, and Jacob Eason looks the part with a big arm, and Washington the better team in TO margin, and special teams in this match up. They have the motivation, and the better coach, and they have faced a far superior schedule, with a blowout against Boise State’s only loss on the schedule.
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12-21-19 |
Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3 |
|
11-48 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
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SMU -3 2.2% PLAY / Under 70 2.2% play We all know the headlines of Lane Kiffin leaving for Ole Miss, and the defensive coordinator takes over the coaching duties here, which I feel can only hurt this FAU offense, which helps with the under bet. They also have scored 3 less points per game when facing a defense that is top 50 in stopping the run, which SMU is, and SMU also capable of getting after the QB ranking top 10 in sack%. The weather is also not going to be great for either team's offense as there is going ot be rain, sustained 16mph winds iwth gusts in the 20's, and we have a high total of 70. SMU, also playing a top defense here, and I expect with the weather they will have to lean more on their running game, and FAU has been good all year long in the red zone allowing just 52% TD's, and with their defensive coordinator taking over for this game I expect the defense to be the side of the ball that tries to win this game. They rank top 50 in YPP allowed,a nd rank 38th in QB Rating. The side of SMU is hard to ignore considering AAC conference went 6-0 SU and ATS with an average MOV victory ATS! of 22.5 points. Sonny Dykes also 2-1 ATS in bowl games, and the home field advantage for FAU is not an advantage. The crowd did not show up to the conference championship, and I think this has a team like FAU less motivated playing a bowl game in their own stadium can't be very excited. FAU also relies heavily on winning the TO battle. +20 in wins and even in losses, and SMU has just 6 TO's lost on the road.
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12-20-19 |
Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte |
|
31-9 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 5 m |
Show
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Buffalo -6.5 2.2% play Buffalo back to a bowl game for the second year in a row with unfinished business. They’ll play in the Bahamas against Charlotte making their first bowl appearance after a great and surprising year. The wind will be a huge factor in this game with 20+ mph winds expected with 30mph gusts, but both of these teams prefer to keep it on the ground anyway rushing the ball 60%+ of the time, so it comes down to which team can run the ball better. Buffalo is my pick, because they have the defense ranking 7th in run defense against an average opponent ranking 69th in ypc offense, they also rank 2nd in the nation in fewest 10+ yard runs allowed, while Charlotte comes into the game ranking 108th in ypc allowed, and 107th in 10+ yard plays allowed. Buffalo is very strong in the trenches, and I think they’ll wear down Charlotte by the end of the game, as they are capable of staying on the field for long stretches, and Charlotte’s defense has shown issues getting off the field allowing 43.17% third down conversions by opponent despite facing an average 3rd down offense ranking 37.56. Buffalo meanwhile has one of the best third down defenses allowing 32.45% against an offense that ranks 38.13%. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 1 team to run for more than 4 ypc, and Charlotte is 0-3 when they are held under 4 ypc. Charlotte has allowed 10 of their 12 opponents to rush for more than 4 ypc. This clearly translates over to the red zone where Buffalo has held opponents to 51% TD percentage while, Charlotte gives up 66%. Another edge to Buffalo here. Charlotte does have a better passing game, but this is where I think the weather actually helps Buffalo more. Buffalo’s pass defense which is good is helped by a great pass rush ranking 7th in sack %. Charlotte will likely be in plenty of third and longs, and I like the chances of this Buffalo pass rush forcing some turnovers. Charlotte played 5 top defenses, and were -5 TO in thos games throwing 8 INT’s, and they went 1-4 in those games. Western Kentucky game really seems similar to me as Western Kentucky’s offense doesn’t look good from a statistical profile, and I would argue Buffalo is better, because they have two 1,000 yard rushers, and a QB that is 6-1 ATS since taking over. Western Kentucky beat Charlotte 30-14, and Buffalo’s run defense is better. Buffalo also takes care of the ball. They were negative TO Margin in only 2 games this season. Special teams is probably cost Buffalo at least a couple games, but here they don’t have a huge disadvantage. Buffalo ranks 130th in special teams efficiency, but they face a team that ranks 125th. Worth noting that C-USA went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the MAC in the regular season, and the MAC has been bad in bowl play going just 22-43-4 ATS since 2005, but these are trends that are out there, and the oddsmakers are still making Buffalo a favorite here.
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12-14-19 |
Army +10.5 v. Navy |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
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Army +10.5 3.3% play First of all I want to start by saying this is one of my favorite games of the year. It's one of the few you can say and clearly see when watching that every snap matters to both teams, and every single player is giving it max effort. Army had a very dissapointed season, but this game means much more to them than any bowl game they were going to be playing in. Army could not win the close games like they did last year, but they still only got beat by more than 10 points just one time, which was their last game against Hawaii, game they were -2 TO's, and 1-4 on 4th down, while also having to play multiple QB's. Kelvin Hopkins, is the key to this Army offense, and he will play today, and that's great news for this offense. Army has not lost to Navy since Hopkins has been here. Army's offensive/defensive #'s are very similar to last year they ranked a combined 61.5 in YPP offense and defense agaisnt a combined average opponent rank 80.55. This year they faced a tougher schedule with an average opponent rank 72.45 for YPP offense and defense while their average was 69.5. So we are dealing with the same Army team on offense, and defense. Navy has dramatically improved their offense, but while Army has faced a tougher schedule than last year Navy has faced an easier schedule and in their step up game against Notre Dame they did not show up, while Army stepped up and nearly beat a Michigan team that crushed Notre Dame. Turnovers were a big reason why that all happened, and they will likely be a key in this game here today. I favor Army as they have been great at winning the TO margin or not losing it since Jeff Monken came aboard. Their last 6 games vs. Air Force or Navy they have been +1, +4, +1, 0, 0, -1, -1 in TO margin. This season they are even in fumbles gained and fumbles lost, while Navy is -4. Army will need to win the TO battle again to have a shot at winning this game. Army has better ratings in power success rate on offense and defense ranking 13th, and 45th, while Navy ranks 74th and 125th! Army also ranks #1 in stuff rate offensive line, while Navy ranks 45. However, on defense it's Navy ranking 41st, and Army ranking 101st. Stuff rate is just % of carries stopped at or before the line of scrimmage which is a key ingredient to stopping triple option. Army's offense doesn't allow many defenses to do this and that helps them stay ahead of the chains, but their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, but they know how to stop Navy's offense, as they were right in the game against Air Force. Army against Air Force came down to Army's inability to convert on 4th down. They were 1-3 on 4th down in the close loss, and that's expected when they had to play the game with Hopkins. In the 3 game winning streak Army is 4-6 on 4th down against Navy. Navy did beat Air Force and their statistical profile appears much better compared to Army's game, but Army was on the road while Navy played at home. This spread is a 17.5 point move from last year, and I don't think Navy is 17.5 points better than last year. Where is Navy's big impressive win? They beat Tulane, SMU, and Air Force. These games have been close the last 5 years, and I don't see Jeff Monken, a coach I really respect letting his team lose by double digits.
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12-07-19 |
Georgia +7.5 v. LSU |
|
10-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 39 m |
Show
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Georgia +7 5.5% NCAAF POD This is not a popular play, which makes me feel even more comfortable playing. We really are buying low on Georgia and selling high on LSU. I'm aware of the injuries, and player suspension from Pickens for the first half, but all of that has been incorporated into this line. When I look at the matchup I really don't see a huge disparity in these two teams. Really the difference is LSU's top 5 offense has faced a weak schedule of defenses ranking on average 69th, and Georgia's top 5 defense has faced a weak schedule of offenses ranking on average 75th in YPP. Georgia's offense ranks 33rd, while LSU's defense ranks 28th. Those are the weaknesses of this team, but Georgia faced an average defense ranking 50th, compared to LSU's defense facing an average offense ranking 65th. Georgia has gotten it done all year in a conservative old school style, that just is not sexy to the typical bettor. LSU's schedule has been fairly easy. Even their tough games were not as tough given the situation. They hosted Auburn and Florida. Florida played Auburn the week before and had several defensive injuries. They faced Texas A&M at home and A&M was playing in back to back road games having faced Georgia the week before. They faced Alabama off a bye, and Alabama had a bye too, but this Alabama defense was just awful, and LSU again faced Alabama with a rusty Tua coming off an injury and it showed early in that game as Alabama turned it over twice. LSU really did not have a tough road game all year and their home away splits are mind boggling. Their red zone offense which scored TD's on 91% of their attempts in the red zone has just a 59% TD% in 5 road games. Georgia's red zone defense is exceptional 38% TD's allowed. Defensively LSU has struggled 50% at home, but 71% on the road. Their run defense has been particularly alarming allowing 4.96 ypc on the road comapred to 2.66 at home. They allowed a QB Rating 46 points higher on the road vs. home. Jake Fromm, still had a great season despite having to face on average a pass defense ranking 45th. He has his hands full here again against a talented LSU secondary, but he plays behind the #1 offensive line in the country. He has good group of RB's, and he makes good decisions. Threw 0 INT's in 11 of the 12 games. He had 1 bad game against South Carolina in questionable weather. I think Georgia will be able to put up points, and move the ball on LSU's defense, and they'll have an excellent game plan. This is arguably the worst spot for LSU all season facing a team that had an easy game the week before. Not having to leave their home state. At the end of the day Georgia has been here before. They're playing in their home state, 3rd year in a row in the SEC Championship. They held Alabama 10 points under their season total a year ago, and Auburn 27 points under their season total. They have a QB playing his third SEC Championship game, and Georgia turned the ball over zero times the last two years. In 5 games this year against top defenses they have a grand total of 1 TO lost. LSU on the other hand has 2+ TO's in 4 of their 12 games and they have turned it over in 8 of their 12 games. I think Georgia gets one, and that might be the way they win this game. I think Georgia will have a shot to win this game, which means you'd see Ohio State vs. LSU, and Georgia vs. Clemson in the college football playoff, which is the way it should be.
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12-07-19 |
Cincinnati +9.5 v. Memphis |
|
24-29 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 52 m |
Show
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Cinci +10 @ -120 buy 1/2 2.4% play / Cinci +295 1% play The situation coming into this game is the fact that these two teams played each other just last week at the same location. THat only favors Cincinnati who didn’t need to win the game, but I came away impressed either way. Teams since 2005 have played each other in back to back weeks just 3 times, and the dog has gone 3-0 ATS. Memphis has all the pressure having lost in the Championship game the last two years, and they’ll have the Cotton Bowl game on the line. Everyone loves this Memphis team, but I can’t figure it out they did not have to face UCF, and in their non-conference schedule they did not face a team that has a winning record in Ole Miss, South Alabama, FCS opponent and LaMonroe and Ole Miss at the time was not as good as they were to close the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati played UCF, and beat them which was something Memphis could not do in recent years. They also played 3 of 4 bowl teams in their non-conference schedule and faced the #1 team in the country in Ohio State, and they faced another team playing in their conference championship, and Marshall who almost got into their conference championship. In last week’s game Cincinnati has to be pretty confident considering they got down 17-3 after the first quarter and outscored Memphis 21-17 the rest of the way. They gave up a kickoff return TD to start the game, which was really strange considering they have the 15th ranked special teams efficiency unit. They also turned the ball over 3 times in the game, which they hadn’t done all year and they played with a backup QB making his first start. They’ll get their starter Ridder back in the game, but at least they know they can go to Bell who has the bigger arm as he played better after the first quarter. Cincinnati has a very balanced team, they are good on offense, but recency bias will say otherwise. Their defense which has faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses including Memphis allowed 28ppg in those games, and when you take Ohio State out, since they really are on another level they have allowed an impressive 23.75 ppg, and when we factor out the kickoff return TD they gave up to Memphis that number against top 30 rushing offenses drops to 22ppg. Memphis offensively has shown struggles against top defenses. They have 8 turnovers in 4 games against top 40 yards per play, which Cinci ranks. Against top 50 run defenses they average 33.2ppg, which is 8.3 points below their season average. That # drops to 32.3 when they face teams with a top 50 rushing and pass defense, but when you take away their kickoff returns the offense is only responsible for 27.67 points per game. Memphis defense does have vulnerabilities, and that comes against the run. Last week they gave up 180+ yards on the ground. Now they have done well giving up just 24.8ppg against top 50 rushing offenses, but Cinci gets to add their QB Ridder back into the mix, which makes the rushing offense that did so well last week more challenging to prepare for. I think Cinci has more success, and they’ll score into the 20’s again.
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12-07-19 |
Baylor +9.5 v. Oklahoma |
|
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 47 m |
Show
|
Baylor +9.5 3.3% play Really nothing has changed my opinion if anything I am more confident in Baylor when I played them over Oklahoma a few weeks back as a POD as they nearly upset Oklahoma. You can read that full write up here - https://freddywills.com/pick/7303/oklahoma-vs-baylor-4-4-ncaaf-pod-guaranteed-or-back-192-147-116-784-l-339-ncaaf-4-bankrol.html Obviously this game is on a neutral field, and we have a 4 point move, and you'll hear a lot of guys that focus on only the #'s tell you that you have to play Oklahoma. I played Oklahoma last week, and felt lucky to get a cover. This team is just not the dominant team they have been in recent years, and I really hope they don't wiggle their way into the Championship game. I think Baylor can play with revenge, and confidence. They literally should have beaten Oklahoma, but their offense had several mistakes in the second half including dropped passes, a fumble after a long run, and they just couldn't get off the field on third down allowing Oklahoma to stay on the field the entire second half. This is a new game, and I'm really impressed with how Baylor turned around the next week to completely dominate Texas at home winning 24-10, and then Kansas, a team that nearly upset Iowa State the week before. I think Baylor is still playing with a ton of confidence while Oklahom seems like they are not playing with as much confidence turning into a run first team, and maybe that's better for Jalen Hurts, but they are going up against a top 25 defense that can stop the run and pass. They play cover 3, and can get pressure with their front without blitzing. I'm aware that Cee Dee Lamb didn't play in that game, but he really hasn't been himself since with 2 receptions, and 4 receptions. For Oklahoma to win it took them going 12-18 on third down, Jalen Hurts threw a season high 4 passing TD's, and they ran the ball 52 times for 4.38 ypc, but didn't get a rushing TD. Baylor will have a counter in this game, and Jalen Hurts is going to make multiple mistakes that could cost Oklahoma the game. I would not be shocked to see Baylor win this game at all. In fact I put a small amount on Baylor to win the National Championship at 160 to 1 this week. They would be the only 1 loss team to avenge their loss and if they do I think they get in.
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12-06-19 |
Oregon +6.5 v. Utah |
|
37-15 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 53 m |
Show
|
Oregon +7 -125 4.5% play / Oregon +210 1% play I was hoping for a +7 to come up, but I don't think we see it at all. So I'll buy this to +7 and 2 of the 3 books I use has this at -125. **Situation Utah wins and many think they go to the CFP PLayoff. I’m not as sure about that. Oregon wins and they go to the Rose Bowl, so motivation is not going to be a problem for either side. If anything I give the edge to Oregon who really can play this game pressure free, and Utah has all of the pressure in the world on them. Utah 8-0 ATS their last 8 games chasing the spread each week for the playoff committee. If you want to back them you are going to pay a premium. 66% of the best and 63% of the money are on Utah. *Weather Expecting a lot of rain, and 12-15mph wind with 20-27mph gusts. Many are going to tell you that it favors Utah style of play, but I would argue that Oregon has a QB that can play better in that type of weather. Justhin Herbert grew up in Oregon, Tyler Huntley in Florida. It rains about 60 more days a year in Eugene Oregon vs. Salt Lake City, and they get about 30 more inches of rain. Oregon also runs the ball more than they pass and people forget about that, and they have the better offensive line which we will talk about later. The total has dropped 6 points, but the spread has only gone up in favor of the dog. Every half point matters more when you get a 6-7 point drop in the total due to weather. *This Year vs. Last Year These two teams met last year. Utah beat Oregon at home as a 5.5 point favorite by 7, and they did it without Tyler Huntley or Zach Moss. They were the luckier team recovering 2 of the 3 fumbles in the game otherwise the game was very much even and Justin Herbert played well completing 20-33 for 288 and 3 TD’s. He does fine against man coverage. Oregon’s team actually improved more agaisnt the same schedule as last year. They improved from 59th in ypp offense to 16th, against a slightly weaker schedule than last year, but their defense jumped from 46th to 9th against a tougher schedule. Utah on the other hand has faced a significantly lesser schedule to this point compared to last year’s team, and I think that’s why their statistical profile looks great, but I don’t see that much has changed. For instance, last year Utah ranked 75th in YPP, but they faced on average a defense ranking 46th in ypp. This year they rank 11th, a massive jump, but it has come against an average 83rd ypp defense. Defensively, it’s another dominant unit ranking 7th in YPP allowed against a decent schedule of offenses averaging 65th, compared to last year’s squad that ranked 19th against an average 57th unit. To me both teams obviously improved, but Oregon improved more, but Utah did not have their starting QB/RB in last year’s game and still won. So I would expect not much of a change in the line, because Oregon has improved more. The only difference is they scheduled Auburn and lost. A slip up at Arizona State, while Utah slipped up at USC. I think Oregon just lost later in the season, and people remember that more. Utah lost at USC, to USC’s 4th string QB. Matchups First lets start by Oregon and Utah have 8 common opponents. Utah has done better +25ppg, vs. +16ppg for Oregon. They are +214ypg vs. +84ypg, but Utah has a better home field advantage in the elevation so some of their stats are going to naturally look better. What I care about was their common road games against quality opponents @USC and @Washington. Oregon went 2-0, and Utah went 1-1. Utah could have gone 0-2, they really should have lost the Washington game, and the same with Oregon at WAshington. They were both almost identical in each game in total yardage, and rushing/passing differential. Utah’s passing game has been efficient, they only throw it 35% of the time and they rank 6th in QB rating, and that’s largely thanks to the fact that they faced an easy schedule opponent defenses ranked 86th on average. They faced 1 top 50 passing defense, but that unit did not have a top pass rush or top rushing defense. In this game Oregon brings top pass defense ranking 5th, a top pass rush ranking 25th, and a run defense ranking 19th. Utah’s passing game is not explosive at all as good as Tyler Huntley has been he has not been tested this year, and he lost his favorite target on third down in Covey for the season. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but it might show up here, because. Utah’s rushing attack ranking 44th is good behind Zach Moss, but not great. That has come against an average run defense ranking 73rd. Once again this is not an explosive rushing offense, and to win a game against a very balanced team you will need explosive plays. Utah has just 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards on the season. Oregon has allowed just 8 all season long which is good for Top 10. Oregon’s passing game which ranks 9th like Utah has faced a very weak schedule average opponent averaging 80th in opponent QB Rating. They ranked 45th last year against an average defense ranking 70th, so they have actually improved, and Herbert had a great game last year against Utah on the road as I mentioned earlier. Utah’s pass defense is legit ranking 8th, but they have struggled at times this year. Both the USC and Washington games come to mind where they gave up over 300 yards passing 7 TD and 3 INT’s. Herbert is better than both of those QB’s and he also takes care of the ball more. I think Utah could have some issues here. Oregon’s rushing offense is actually better than Utah’s. While they don’t run as much they are still efficient ranking 38th, and it comes against an average defense ranking 65th. They play behind a very experienced offensive line, and it shows. They were able to punch in 2 rushing TD’s in the Auburn game earlier this year on a neutral field which is really impressive given what that Auburn defensive line has accomplished this year. X-factors Predict the TO margin, and win the game. I think Oregon will take better care although both teams are in the Top 10 in TO margin. Utah usually wins by margin due to TO’s by that defense, and they can’t rely on that this game. Oregon has lost 11 all year and in their biggest games against USC, Auburn, and Washington on the road they had just 2 TO’s lost. Special Teams is something you can’t ignore, and normally you would just automaitcally assume UTah has the better special teams. Some of their #’s are going to be better because they play in elevation. Overall they rank 70th in special teams efficiency, while Oregon ranks 42nd. The small things win these games for Utah and Kyle Whittingham, but he can’t say that for this game, as Oregon seems to be doing the little things better than Utah. 8.63% havoc rate allowed against an opponent average havoc rate of 15.04% compared to Utah who comes in at 10.67%, and an average opponent rank of 14.54% another reason why I like Oregon here.
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11-30-19 |
California +1 v. UCLA |
|
28-18 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
11-30-19 |
Oklahoma -13 v. Oklahoma State |
|
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
11-30-19 |
Texas A&M +18 v. LSU |
|
7-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
11-30-19 |
Alabama -3.5 v. Auburn |
|
45-48 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
Alabama -3 buy 1/2 3% play
|
11-29-19 |
Washington State v. Washington -7 |
|
13-31 |
Win
|
100 |
77 h 49 m |
Show
|
Washington -7 3.3% play Washington knows this offense well, and should win this game. I think we are getting some value with Washington since they are off an inexcusable loss to Colorado that I simply can’t explain. Washington’s offense disappeared, and they were flat out of the bye. We saw this against Stanford, earlier in the year where they were a 2 TD favorite on the road and lost the game. The y came back the next week and beat Arizona as a TD favorite. I expect the same here as Washington has beaten Washington State by 13, 27, 28,35, 18, 10 over the last few years. This defense just knows how to defend the Air Raid. They saw it earlier in the year when they hosted USC who they beat by 14 and held to a season low 14 points. USC’s next lowest point total was against Oregon where they scored 24 points. Washington takes care of business here.
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11-29-19 |
Boise State -13.5 v. Colorado State |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
Boise State -14 1.1% Free Play (61-39 +$21,773 L 100 All Sports Free Picks) Boise State has every reason to win with margin, and we saw that take place in their last game against Utah State. Meanwhile Colorado State, at home here does not worry me. We saw them give no effort against Wyoming, and they have no shot at a bowl game. I think Boise wants to show they deserve consideration for a New Years Day Bowl, and the only way to do it is to win here with margin. They'll be the more focused team the day after Thanksgiving.
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11-29-19 |
Iowa v. Nebraska +5 |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
Nebraska +4.5 2.2% play / Nebraska +185 1.1% play This is a massive game for Nebraska and Scott Frost to get to 6 wins and become bowl eligible. They are doing what they did last year and playing well down the stretch. They outgained Wisconsin in their last home game in a misleading loss, and the defense held Wisconsin to 2TD's in 5 red zone trips, which I thought was a major improvement on what they had been doing earlier in the year, and their offense with Adrian Martinez back rushed for 273 yards in that game. They backed it up with a dominating performance at Maryland last week, which doesn't say much, but it does show that they are capable of being on the same level of the other teams that have stomped on Maryland this year. Iowa really what do they have to play for here? This was a 3 point game last year in Iowa and Nebraska could have won that game. Statistically speaking last year's Iowa team was better on defense than this year's version. They ranked 6th in ypp against a tougher offensive schedule. This year they rank 21st. Their run defense was stronger, and their ability to get to the QB was stronger. I think Adrian Martinez could have a good game, and I think they should win, because they have taken care of the ball. In their first 5 games of the season they had 14 turnovers, but over the last 6 games they have lost just 5 turnovers. The defense has also played better this year vs. last year. Iowa doesn't typically blow out teams, and they have been outgained by 150+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games. They beat Illinois at home last wee by 9, but didn't cover the spread despite being +2 in TO margin, which only happens 23% of the time.
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11-29-19 |
Kent State +4.5 v. Eastern Michigan |
|
34-26 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
Kent State +4 2.2% play Kent State has the hot hand right now, and I don't believe Eastern Michigan should be more than a field goal favorite here. Eastern Michigan needs to wint he TO battle to win by more than 4 points here and even the game. They are +8 in their wins, and -3 in their losses, and Kent State just does not turn the ball over. They have 10 TO's lost all year, and 4 came against dominant defenses in Miami Ohio and Arizona State. Eastern Michigan's defense is down this year ranking 93rd in yards per play allowed. Kent State's offense has enough balance to keep them guessing here. Kent State's biggest weakness is their pas sprotection, but Eastern Michigan can't take advantage as they rank 92nd in sack %. Kent State has averaged 34.5 points per game against teams who can't get to the QB. On the flip side Eastern Michigan is alla bout their passing game. One thing Kent State can do is get to the QB ranking 33rd in sack %. Eastern MIchigan vs. top 60 pass rushing units are only averaging 23 points per game. They also have worse offensive #'s in conference play. They are -5.5% on third down offense/defense, while Kent is +11%. They are -12 TD% in the red zone in conference play compared to Kent who is -9%. Their QB play/defense is also worse in conference play. I think this will be a tight game as both teams need a win to get to bowl eligibility. While Eastern Michigan alreayd has 6 wins there is no definite way they are getting in as there should be too many teams wiht 6 wins this year. Kent with a win I think is in with how well they have played to end the year. I'll gow ith the more balanced offense, and the team that I feel will take care of the ball more. We mentioned Kent State's ability to take care of the ball, Eastern Michigan's need to win the TO margin to win a game. Eastern Michigan has only forced 3 TO's in their 4 home games. I think both teams take care of the ball here, and this is a pretty even game so to be getting 4 points we have a bargain.
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11-23-19 |
San Diego State +3 v. Hawaii |
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11-14 |
Push |
0 |
47 h 49 m |
Show
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San Diego STate +3 4% play
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