Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-15-18 | LSU v. Auburn -9.5 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 38 m | Show | |
Auburn -9.5 3.3% play I like Auburn a lot in this game against LSU. LSU’s offensive line is going to have real difficult time protecting their QB in this game, and they will have trouble scoring points. LSU in week 2 had a 31-0 victory over SE Louisiana, but only put up 335 total yards. In week 1 against Miami they scored 33 points, but only had 296 total yards. Auburn’s defense is better than Miami and this is a true road game for LSU. They will be held to under 250 yards in this game. Auburn’s offense should score 20+ points here. They have a veteran QB in Jarret Stidham. This is a team that put up 420 yards of offense against Washington, but struggled settling for FG’s. They got some confidence in week 2 against Alabama State that will carry over to this game as they scored 63 points and had 567 total yards. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Boise State v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 46 h 24 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State -2.5 2.2% play @ 3:30pm ET Boise State is a popular dog this week that I'd look to fade. Oklahoma State is a very well coached team under Mike Gundy and he has done a far better job recruiting here compared to Bryan Harsin at Boise State. On average over the last 4 years Oklahoma State has had a recruiting class that is 29 places ahead of Boise State.Oklahoma State is not often a short favorite at home. Since 2008 when they are less than a TD favorite at home they are 9-3-1 ATS. When they are facing a non-conference opponent since 1985 they are 37-18-1 ATS as a home favorite and when that spread is under 10 points they are 15-2 ATS. The Big 12 has also dominated the Mountain West going 13-2 since 2010 while outscoring the Mountain West by 18 points per game. That includes Boise State losing as a favorite to Baylor 31-12 in a bowl game. The 2 wins came from TCU & Utah who are now playing in power 5 conferences. Boise State is just getting a lot of hype while there is this thought that Oklahoma State is rebuilding. Oklahoma State has a senior at QB in Taylor Cornelius and a senior at RB in Justice Hill who can take it to the house on any play. Boise State looked great against the likes of Troy and Uconn, but they are about to see a top 10 passing offense. Boise State has been a good dog cover on the road, but they really have not been scheduling these type of games the last few years facing only Virginia, Washington State & Oregon State the last two years who are from the worst of the Power 5 Conferences. This is a team that lost to Virginia as a 13 point favorite. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Notre Dame | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 46 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt +13.5 2.2% @ 2:30PM ET I missed out on the 14.5 earlier in the week, but I think there is still a good amount of line value here with Vanderbilt who sports the better QB in this match-up. Vanderbilt also looks much improved on defense while Notre Dame is really struggling on the offensive line and Brandon Wimbush is simply not a very good throwing QB. Notre Dame offensive line is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in their first two games. Notre Dame lost 2 OL’s to the NFL and they also lost their OL coach. Last week at home they struggled against a MAC team in Ball State who runs a 3-4 defense. Vanderbilt also runs a 3-4 defense and has better talent than Ball State. Notre Dame just not a very good team when they can’t run the ball. Since 2016 season they are just 3-9 straight up when they don’t rush for more than 4.5 yards per carry. I mentioned Vanderbilt had the better QB, and they do with Kyle Shurmur. Schurmur is not afraid of playing on the road and he was great last year with a 16 TD to 2 INT ratio in road games at MTSU, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee. As long as Vanderbilt doesn’t lose the TO margin I see them in position to pull the upset. Vanderbilt’s defense is playing a more aggressive style and has forced 6 TO’s through 2 games and Brandon Wimbush has 1 TD and 4 INT thus far. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +17.5 | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 88 h 50 m | Show | |
Iowa State +17.5 3.3% play A lot of people are going to be jumping on Oklahoma this week. They have looked dominant in their first two weeks of the season, and there is the "revenge" angle that the media is going to hype up from last year when Iowa State went into Oklahoma and shocked the world. There is just too much value here on Iowa State, a team I can actually see pulling the upset again. They have a very underrated home field advantage, and we are getting value here, because they lost 13-3 to Iowa, but that game was much closer. Matt Campbell has done a fantastic job here and is 11-6-1 ATS as a dog at Iowa State and dating back to his Toledo days in 2012 he is a combined 21-11-1 ATS as an underdog and 7-2 ATS as a double digit dog. He has not lost by more than 10 points since 2016 when he took Iowa State over. This Iowa State defense is legit and has proven they can stop the run. I'm not sold on Kyler Murray to go into a hostile environment for the first time and dominate and that's what he's going to have to do against Iowa State to cover this spread. I also am looking to still fade the AP Preseason Top 10. Doing so over the first 3 weeks results in a 56% ATS history over the last 6 years combined. |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +33.5 v. Georgia | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 15 m | Show | |
MTSU +33 3.3% PLAY @ 12PM ET This is far too many points for Georgia to be laying against a very good C-USA team in Middle Tennessee with 17 returning starters and an experienced QB. The reason is Georgia looked fantastic last week against South Carolina on the road, and Middle Tennessee has already lost to an SEC opponent of lesser quality in Vanderbilt 35-7. That was a very misleading final as MTSU was only -52 yards in that game, and they always struggle playing their instate rival. Georgia is getting Alabama respect here and I don’t know that it really is deserving. Let’s take a look at Georgia against non-p5 opponents. This year they ran just 60 plays in a 45-0 win over Austin Peay. Last year they defeated App State by a score of 31-10 and ran only 64 plays. Last year against Samford they won 42-14 and only ran 69 plays. IN 2016 they beat Nichols St 26-24 at home, and 35-21 over Lafayette. On the other hand Middle Tennessee covered as +35 in 2015 at Alabama, +7 at Missouri in 2016 winning outright, +10 last year at Syracuse winning outright. They have had their struggles against Vanderbilt, but have played well against other P5 opponents. Georgia also moved this game up to a noon kickoff because of the hurricane so it will be an easier road environment for MTSU and Georgia is going to want this game to be over quickly with a road game at Missouri on deck. |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +6.5 2.2% play Everyone is on Boston College here and Wake Forest is getting absolutely no respect in my opinion. This game has been moved up because of the incoming hurricane and weather conditions won't be ideal with the winds. This typically favors a run first team like Boston College, but I think Wake Forest is prepared and has a better shot of stopping the run than does Boston College. Let's take a look at the facts. Wake Forest's weakness on defense is vs. the pass, and so I like this match-up against BC who has run the ball 70% of the time this year. AJ Dillon is no doubt a great back so far, but the hype is just too much if you ask me. Wake's run defense was impressive last year holding opponents to 3.47 yards per carry at home, 4.31 in conference play while BC was 4.95 ypc ont he road and 4.46 ypc allowed in conference play. BC just got done giving up a ton of yards vs. Holy Cross on the ground, and I expect Wake to have more success running the ball than most people think. In last year's game at Boston College it was Wake Forest who out gained Boston College on the ground 158 to 142. Both team's return their offensive line which are the strengths of the team and I just feel like Wake Forest will keep this game close. |
|||||||
09-08-18 | San Jose State +34 v. Washington State | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 104 h 33 m | Show | |
Freddy gave out Oklahoma -20.5 as his free play in week 1 and it was an easy winner moving him to 31-9 ATS over his last 40 Free College Football Picks! Join Freddy for all of his week 2 premium plays! San Jose State +34 1.1% Play The Spartans will head on the road to play at Washington State. I think we are getting 6 points of line value here as Washington State went on the road and shocked Wyoming with a big margin of victory. I know a lot of sharps that were all over Wyoming, and I would have played Washington State. This week is the week you would definitely look to fade them. Washington State in early season games vs. non-power 5 have not done well going 1-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in the first 3 weeks of the season including 2 losses against FCS opponents in 2015 & 2016. San Jose State with 14 returning starters have 2 extra days of preparation for this game having played last Thursday losing to FCS foe UC Davis. |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
Michigan State -6 2.2% Play The game of the year line on this game is 10 points, but last week Arizona State looked great against UTSA, a team many were picking to pull the upset as the cruised to a 49-7 victory. Michigan St meanwhile was in a dogfight against Utah State on their home field winning by just 7 points. I'm not really worried about that Mark Dantonio will have his boys ready to play after an extra day of rest & prep for Arizona State. Michigan State still dominated in stopping the run, and Arizona State is going to be a team that leans on the running game under Herman Edwards. They ran the ball 35 times and threw it just 24 times in week 1 and I expect a similar run first game plan which just doesn't stack up against the Spartans. I think we are getting the better team in X's and O's from the better conference, and the better coach. Worth noting is 1st year head coaches in the power 5 do not do well as underdogs going 72-97 ATS since 2012. The Big Ten has dominated the PAC 12 the last two years going 4-0 SU & ATS last bowl season. Their only 2 losses came when Nebraska lost on the road at Oregon by only 7 points, and Rutgers lost but covered the spread against Washington. Michigan State also has nothing to look ahead to as they'll be on a bye after this week. |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Kentucky +14 v. Florida | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 55 m | Show | |
Kentucky +14 2.2% play Kentucky had 3 defensive players turn the NFL down to return for their senior season. The idea? They want to win this game and leave their mark on this program. They nearly did it last year holding a 24-14 lead in the final minutes before losing 28-27 in heartbreaking fashion. Florida is getting far too much respect here in the number after defeating an FCS foes last week in Charleston Southern who went 6-5 last year. Meanwhile, Kentucky actually had a very impressive victory over Central Michigan despite the 35-20 final. Kentucky did not actually cover the spread due to 4 turnovers. Their defense dominated and the rushing game looked better than ever.Florida and Kentucky have their guys back in the trenches. The trenches definitely go to Florida who outgained Kentucky on the ground by 63 yards last season. However, Florida is breaking in a new defense switching to the 3-4 which could create some issues for them in the early going. Kentucky breaks in a new QB in the #1 JUCO transfer Terry Wilson who is extremely mobile. I expect Kentucky to have more success running the ball and they should be able to do a better job defending the run. Kentucky have been close in 3 of the last 4 years against Florida. This is the most experienced Kentucky team that Mark Stoops has had and his defense should be better this season as they have improved the last two years. Florida cracked the top 25, after their offense showed off against an FCS Foe, and I think it's extremely misleading. Florida still does not have a QB. Felipe Franks really does not fit the mold of what Dan Mullen wants to do and I don't anticipate them putting up a ton of points in this one. Expect Kentucky to be right back in the thick of things for the 4th time in the last 5 years. Maybe they can finally break the 31 game losing streak. |
|||||||
09-08-18 | UMass +2.5 v. Georgia Southern | 13-34 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
Umass +2.5 3.3% PLAY We backed Umass last week against Boston College and they were pretty much out of the game by the end of the first quarter. I do like what i’m hearing from head coach Whipple and the defensive players who want to rebound. I think they will here against Georgia Southern who is back to running the triple option. Most of what hurt Umass last week was through the air, and they should be able to put up 30+ points in this matchup. This was a matchup they led 48-17 in the first half last year. I see we are getting roughly 9 points of line value based on Umass getting dominated by a BC team that is much improved this year. Umass has done very well on the road in the past and return 9 starters on offense including QB Andrew Ford which is why I backed them at +18 last week. Last year they hung and had chances to win at Tennessee as a +28 dog, and they were in the game against a very good Miss State team as +33 dogs. Remember this is now their 3rd game and they have been battle tested along with one easy game. This is is a coin flip game for them, and I expect they will have a lot of things to apply from games 1 and 2 to this week’s game plan to come up with a win. |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10 | 41-17 | Loss | -106 | 66 h 3 m | Show | |
South Carolina +10 2.2% play I talked about South Carolina a good amount in my pre-season podcast and they are a live dog here in week 2 in my opinion. For one their offense is much improved and they have the talent to score on a Georgia defense that has lost some talent. I think they will be able to take advantage of that and put up some points here to stay within striking distance. Georgia also falls under my strategy of fading the AP Top 10. I’m excited to see what the offense dials up and I think Deebo Samuel will have a big game at WR. Georgia lost their 2 best offensive players in Chubb & MIchael and their leadership will be missed. Defensively they lost their best defensive player in Roquan Smith. This is a young Georgia team and it’s their first road game of the season against South CArolina who has a very good home field advantage. Georgia’s road games in SEC play last year were very easy with trips to Tennessee, VAnderbilt, and then Auburn (they got crushed 17-40). |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Georgia Tech -3 v. South Florida | 38-49 | Loss | -118 | 62 h 20 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech -3.5 2.2% play Georgia Tech is under the radar after a losing season. They return 8 starters on offense, and their defense got a big upgrade in their defensive coordinator Nate Woody. Ga Tech already pitched their first shutout in game 1 defeating and dominating Alcorn State of FCS. Alcorn State was picked by many to win their conference so it was an impressive victory by the final of 41-0. Georgia Tech also has a senior QB running the offense which is always a big deal for Georgia Tech. Meanwhile USF only has 11 returning starters losing their best QB ever in Quinton Flowers, and their top 2 RB’s and top WR. They also lost their top 3 tacklers and the front 7 on defense lost a ton of talent. That does not bode well for defending the triple option. ACC has done well the last two years facing the American going 4-1, and Georgia Tech is 2-0 all time facing the AAC. The last time South Florida’s defense faced the triple option they faced Navy and gave up 45 points. |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Nevada +8.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck. Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but held onto a 14-7 halftime lead. Overall MIddle Tennessee had 7 trips into VAnderbilt territory and came away with an amazing 0 points. Don’t expect Nevada to fall into the same situation. Vanderbilt should be down this year with just 5 returning on defense and 12 overall. Nevada held their own in a meaningful game a year ago at Northwestern losing 21-30 and I expect they will be in this game with a chance to win it in the end. |
|||||||
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | 24-3 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Florida State -7 2.2% Play Florida State embarks on a new era under Head Coach Willie Taggart. Taggart will bring a new offense that is focused on speed, and more plays. One would think this may be very challenging at the start of a season and it might take Florida State a little to really get in gear with this offense, but the system is meant to be simple and easy to run. Deondre Francois is the perfect guy to run it and he has a ton of experience around him with 8 returning starters on the offense. He's got some really good receivers led by Nyqwan Murray, and Cam Akers at RB is a star in the making. While Florida State's biggest question mark on offense is the new spread up-tempo attack, Virginia Tech has bigger questions. The talent and experience is at least there for Florida State, but with Virginia Tech they have sophomore Joshua Jackson in his second year surrounded by a young supporting cast. Virginia Tech's defense, is in rebuilding mode, and Jackson really did not perform on the road last year in ACC play where he had 2 passing TD's in 4 games to 4 INT's. That came against the likes of BC, Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia. Those 4 teams all had good passing defenses, but Florida State is right in the mix ranking 14th last year and could be better this year. The Virginia Tech offense scored 23, 10, 22, and 10 points in those games and we could see a similar point total tonight around the 16.25 point average, which would lead to a Florida State cover. Florida State's offense is going to play faster so a spread of 7 points is more like 4 or 4.5 and Taggart has proven in the past that his system is simplistic. Oregon put up 77 points in their first game running it last year, and they really didn't have the right QB to run it. I do expect to see some rust early from Francois, but his teammates around him will pick him up and he'll feed off the energy of the Florida State crowd. |
|||||||
09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 20 m | Show | |
Navy -10 3.3% play Navy is coming off a rare poor year and losing year ATS and I expect them to bounce back with their deepest QB group ever. Navy following a losing record ATS under Ken Niumatalolo are 26-13 ATS and following a 5-8 ATS year I expect they will get back to a 9 or 10 win season while contending in the AAC. This is a tough road game traveling all the way to Hawaii, but Hawaii played last week and made the trip to and from Colorado, and have not been good at home going 4-18-1 ATS. I always felt playing Hawaii early in the season was the way to go, but they already spoiled that in week 0 with an outright upset of Colorado State as a 17 point dog, and now we are getting 4 points of value. Ken Niumatalolo also was the QB here and is very aware of the challenges traveling to play Hawaii and the distractions. You really have to be disciplined and there are not many more disciplined teams than a service academy like Navy. I expect them to be ready and they will give this Hawaii defense who lost 6 of their top 9 tacklers last season and did not face a triple option team in 2017. I just don't see them being able to stop Navy having not seen the triple option in 2 years so I expect Navy to put up their usual 40+ points in week 1. |
|||||||
09-01-18 | Michigan +1.5 v. Notre Dame | 17-24 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 50 m | Show | |
Michigan +1.5 3.3% play There has been a lot of talk about Michigan and how they do in step up games, but when you look at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly they may even be worse. JIm Harbough is getting beat up in the press, and this is the type of game he absolutely needs and I think he gets with his most experienced roster yet with 17 returning starters and transfer Shea Patterson. The loss of Tarik Black is a big one at WR, but they can overcome that with a star QB in Patterson. Michigan’s defense is arguably the best in the country, and return 9 starters with Don Brown’s system and the defense played better than expected a year ago. Now without Amazon following them around I feel like this is a breakout year for the Wolverines and watch out for Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich to make some noise on the defense in this game against a one dimensional Notre Dame team.
Notre Dame is one dimensional until proven otherwise. They lose their top RB, WR, and 2 offensive lineman to the NFL, and Wimbush returns, but has not impressed in camp following a season he completed less than 50% of his passes. Notre Dame went 0-3 when they could not rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry. 2.72 in losses, 7.19 in wins and that will be the key here as they lost to teams ranking 32nd, 20th, and 78th against the run a year ago. Michigan fully healthy should shut this unit down in my opinion. Notre Dame is also basically a dog here when they are ranked higher in the polls is very puzzling. As I spoke in the off-season fading the ap top 10 pre-season teams in their first 3 games gets you a 56% ATS mark since 2013. Taking out last year’s anomaly it’s actually 60% winners. Notre Dame also off a 8-5 ATS season has failed to follow that up with a winning season under Kelly going 14-24 ATS the following year, 5-9 ATS as a home favorite, and just 8-22 ATS vs. power 5 opponents. The only thing that is helping Notre Dame here is that they are at home, but under Kelly they have actually lost at home 5 times in the last two years alone and to teams like Duke, and Navy so you are not talking about top tier teams. |
|||||||
09-01-18 | Appalachian State +24.5 v. Penn State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
App State +24 2.2% play You will be paying a premium to back Penn State who is #10 in the pre-season polls but will be taking a step back offensively and defensively this year. Penn State returns just 10 starters and I know they have their starting QB back, but they lose their offensive coordinator who changed everything for this program the last two years where they went 19-8 ATS mainly because of the offense. James Franklin was on the hot seat before that going 10-16 ATS. App State is a tough team that plays will in these big games. They lost by only 21 at Georgia last year, a team that played for the National Championship, and nearly beat Tennessee who was ranked in the top 10 in 2016, losing by just 7 points on the road. There are a lot of things to like including Penn State looking ahead ot a big in-state road game at Pitt in week #2. With inexperienced offensive coordinator calling the plays I don’t expect to see the ultra aggressive offensive style of pay. |
|||||||
09-01-18 | UMass +18 v. Boston College | 21-55 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 4 m | Show | |
Umass +18 3.3% play I like Umass here who played last week and scored 63 points. They have a ton of talent on offense led by seniors including QB Andrew Ford. They have gone 5-1 ATS vs. power 5 schools the last two seasons and nearly won outright last year in SEC country against the likes of Tennessee and Miss State. They have had all offseason to think about the possibilities of defeating an in-state big brother like Boston College who got a ton of hype in the offseason. So much hyp that their season win total rose from 5.5 to 7 points. They’ll have to contend with a Umass team that is 8-2 ATS the last two seasons as an away dog who will be playing with a ton of confidence following last week’s game. Boston College was a run first team in 2017 and I don’t expect much to change in 2018 as they ran the ball 62% of the time. That keeps the clock ticking and gives us a good chance of covering the 18 with Umass who has a good offense and the potential of pulling an upset. |
|||||||
08-31-18 | Syracuse -5 v. Western Michigan | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Syracuse -5 2.2% play I really like for Syracuse to make a statement in this game against Western Michigan. I think we are getting a bit of line value from previous season when Western Michigan competed with the big boys. Syracuse is also an under rated team this year. People forget they knocked off Clemson and went 4-8 with the #2 toughest schedule in the country while dealing with tons of injuries including their QB Dungey who is back in this game playing behind an experienced offensive line. The offense returns 8 starters, and it will be Dino Baber's best offense in his third year here. I actually think they will have a lot of success running and throwing the ball this year. They'll be going up against Western Michigan's defense which is predicted to take a step back this year. They lost their star CB and all 3 of their starting linebackers. Syracuse also has Wagner on deck while Western Michigan has Michigan so you tell me who has focused on this game more in the off season. Syracuse really can't afford to lose this game and need to get off to a good start for a change. I think Syracuse should win here by double digits. The MAC has not done well against ACC going 3-25 since 2010 being outscored by 17.8 points per game. Since 2015 it's gotten worse they have gone 0-12 and have been outscored by 26.1 points per game. This is an unusual situation where the game means more to the Power 5 school than it does to the MAC school. |
|||||||
08-30-18 | Northwestern +2 v. Purdue | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Northwestern +2 2.2% play I'm taking the Wildcats as the most experienced team here with a veteran and future NFL QB in Clayton Thorson who should be back after suffering an ACL injury in the bowl game last year. I also peaked at the total given that Purdue's offense will be improved and the defense will take a major step back, but Pat Fitzgerald's teams typically stay under the total early in the season and that line has moved almost 4 points. Northwestern has been a profitable play as a road dog going 10-3 ATS since 2014 season and I think they have the more complete team here. Northwestern's defense returns 7 starters and have ranked in the top 30 in run defense in each of the last 3 years. Northwestern's secondary is experienced after suffering injuries in 2017 and that should help them particularly in the red zone. Purdue does need to run the ball to set up the pass as they were +1 yards per carry and 10 rushing TD's to 2 in wins vs. losses last year. Purdue may be able to pass the ball and score some points, but without balance I don't see them really being able to score TD's. Purdue had 398 yards passing against Northwestern last year and only scored 13 points to put thing into perspective. I really do like Jeff Brohm as a head coach, and in year 2, power 5 head coaches have success, but mostly as under dogs. I'll fade Brohm here as Purdue is getting too much respect and hype based off last year's results when Brohm even admitted he inherited quite a good team in 2017. This year will likely be a step back. |
|||||||
08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Wake Forest -6 3.3% play I think we are getting some line value here with Wake Forest at Tulane. I know a lot of folks are high on Tulane with year #3 of Willie Fritz system, but I think they are still a year away. Their defense returned only 5 guys while losing 3 on the defensive line. Wake Forest offense which has broken school records the last two years and started sophomores on their offensive line 2015 returns all 5 of their guys along the offensive line. Wake Forest starting QB Kendall Hinton is suspended for this game, but I really think Wake Forest is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage. Their offense should put up enough points while Tulane which runs the option should be able to move the ball a bit here as well. However, Wake Forest is used to seeing the option. They faced Tulane last year, and they have regularly faced Georgia Tech and/or Army each season. Dave Clawson is a very under rated head coach and what he has done at Wake Forest has been truly impressive. I look to go against the popular dog play here and take Wake Forest to open the season after extra time to prepare for the option and win big. |
|||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
Georgia +4 5.5% POD I give a small edge in coaching to Alabama with Nick Saban having an 11-0 record 9-2 ATS vs. former assistants, but note that he was on average a 17 point favorite in those games. No coach ever spent more than 5 years with Saban while Kirby Smart spent the last 8 years up until 2015. Georgia's offensive coordinator Jim Chaney I have over Jeremy Pruitt who takes over Tennessee after this game. Chaney spent years with NFL teams and in the SEC, but more importantly brought his offensive line coach Sam Pittman. Pittman knows how to run the ball and get his line to block. Just ask Arkansas and Brett Bielema how they did after Pittman left. Special Teams is about even as both teams have special kickers and neither team has a punt or kick return for a TD. Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship hit a 55 yarder before the half which changed momentum int he game against Oklahoma. They also blocked a kick to win the game, but Alabama has been known to win games with special teams in this type of game. Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense is a big key. Alabama got healthy, but lost another linebacker in their game against Clemson. Alabama has not been as dominant vs. good rushing teams as they have in the past shutting down just 1 of the 5 top 45 rushing offenses they faced. On average allowing 139 yards per game in those 5 games and 7 TD's. Meanwhile Georgia's rushing attack has faced 6 top 45 run defenses and only 1 team in a road game at Auburn shut them down, but their coaching staff made adjustments and they rushed for over 200 in the SEC Championship. Georgia's Jake Fromm is the key here as they can make all the throws that Jarret Stidham did when Auburn beat Alabama with their balance attack. For a true freshman he's been extremely impressive and even getting the confidence of coaches to change the play at the line of scrimmage. If you want to beat Alabama you better have a QB and Georgia certainly does. You can get more info on the Georgia offense vs. Alabama defense in this week's podcast where I gave Georgia in overall slight advantage. Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense is another advantage in my opinion for Georgia. On paper Georgia ranked 32nd in stopping the run, but they faced 7 teams in the top 25 in rushing offense. They faced some weird ones too with Georgia Tech's triple option, Oklahoma's #1 offense and RPO spread offense, along with facing Auburn's offense twice. They shut down 4 of the 8 rushing offenses in the top 45 that they faced. Their run defense is much better than it looked a week ago and a big reason why we have them as dogs. Alabama doesn't have a 1,000 yard rusher this year. Meanwhile they still ranked #10 in rushing offense from a ypc perspective and #15 in QB Rating. We saw Clemson really shut down Alabama's offense and we saw Auburn do the same thing in the Iron Bowl. This Georgia defense is really similar in a lot of ways and can do the same thing. Alabama's Jalen Hurts has faced a weaker schedule having faced on average a 66.8 run defense. Georgia has the #6 pass defense to go along with that, and we have seen Hurts struggle to get much going. He's faced 6 top 50 passing defenses. He eclipsed 200 yards 1x, and was held under 121 passing yards 3 times. He ranked 96th in sack % because he'd rather take a sack than throw an interception. I see Georgia getting after him here they held Brandon Wimbush a mobile QB from Notre Dame to 1 yard on 16 carries. Georgia may not have as impressive numbers here or there, but they have gotten better as the season progressed especially on offense. They are coming off a game where they made a major come back, and have a ton of confidence in offense and now they get to face a one dimensional offense. Alabama certainly has the receivers, but Georgia is going to make Hurts beat them and his numbers despite not turning the ball over against the top 50 passing defenses he's faced have not been impressive. Either I think this game comes down to a field goal these two teams really are even, but Georgia is the more complete team with balance on offense and they have faced a tougher schedule. |
|||||||
01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Alabama -3 4.4% play As a Clemson fan I hate making this play. I think they are really disrepsected being an under dog here, but I think a deeper look at the match-up and it's rightfully so. Not only did Clemson get in a tough situation with the location of this bowl game being in New Orleans which is a major advantage to Alabama, but they have to go up against a highly motivated Alabama team that was almost left out of this playoff that lost to Clemson in last year's national championship. Nick Saban 10-2 in revenge games. Although I don't buy into the revenge angle a lot these days I think it certainly applies here. Clemson, was lucky to win last year's bowl game, and lucky to cover the year before. It took their best two performances of the year offensively in those games and it was Deshaun Watson show. Mike Williams, at WR also was a key aspect of the win last year and they just don't have that guy they can throw it up to down the field. Kelly Bryant has been fantastic, but he's not as much of a thrower as Watson. Look out for Hunter Renfrow to be taken out of this game as he killed Alabama the last two years. Clemson played exceptional in their step up games against Auburn, Louisville, Virginia Tech, and Miami, but 3 of the 4 teams that have played so far lost their bowl games. Virginia lost by 10, Miami lost by 10, and Louisville lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite over an SEC team. Last year it was evident that the ACC was ahead of the SEC. While I still think that's the case front top to bottom. I think the top tier SEC schools are a bit better than the top ACC schools. These two faced two common opponents in Florida State & Auburn. When you look at it Alabama faced them at the worse times. They faced Auburn on the road completely healthy while Alabama was missing 3 starting LB's. They faced Florida State in week 2 when they were ranked #2 in the country and still had their QB. Clemson faced Florida State at home with a freshman QB, and their season goals already lost. They faced Auburn on what I believe was neutral turf and before Auburn really found their offensive identity. Yes, Clemson defense statistically was as good as Alabama, with a better pass rush and slightly more exploitable in run defense. I just don't see it being a good match-up for Clemson here against Alabama and their very good rushing offense which ranked #1 this year. Brett Venables also had issues stopping Alabama's offense the last two years with two different coordinators as Alabama scored 45 and 31 points. Alabama with more than 2 weeks to prepare has been very good offensively since 2012 in 11 games they averaged 35 points per game. These were all games against P5 opponents either in the playoff game or first game of the season. Alabama the last three years played Florida State, Wisconsin and USC to open the year. The health of Alabama, the extra time to prepare, no Deshaun Watson, location favoring Alabama, the revenge factor are all reasons why I like Alabama to come away with the win and cover. |
|||||||
01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | 26-19 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 42 m | Show | |
Michigan -7.5 -1.05 This game reminds me a lot of Michigan's bowl game 2 years ago against a Florida team that had a very bad offense and good defense. Michigan defeated them 41-7 in that bowl game. I think the extra time off helps Michigan more than it does South Carolina, and I think Michigan is looking to make a statement. Brandon Peters will start at QB which makes a world of difference as he is more mobile and has a better arm. He is also trying to make a statement that this is his team and that incoming transfer Shea Patterson is not just going to take over. I think it starts with Michigan's defense that should dominate allowing for the offense to be on the field a ton. Michigan's defense has been dominant and is #3 in the country. South Carolina lacks any difference makers on offense after they lost Deebo Samuel vs. Kentucky for the season. They faced two similar top 10 defenses in their last 4 games of the season and put up 10 points against Georgia, and 10 points against Clemson. Michigan is the same type of defense with extra time to prepare against a South Carolina team that fired their offensive coordinator. We have seen how teams have done playing without their coordinators this bowl season. I think we are getting line value here as South Carolina were out gained on the season by 35 yards per game, but managed to go 8-4. They went 0-4 against teams that were able to run the ball which is exactly what I think Michigan can do in this game. With Peters at QB Michigan's running game was as good as it was all year rushing for over 230 yards per game and 12 TD's in 4 games. They were even moving the ball on Wisconsin on the road early in that game before Peters was knocked out with a concussion. When Peters took over it was evident the difference between the two and the offense. South Carolina does have the #37 run defense, but they have faced an average opponent ranking 70.1 in rushing yards per carry in their wins while their losses have come against #48.5. Michigan is #50 having faced a very challenging schedule of 5 TOP 25 run defenses. South Carolina not in that boat and when Michigan did not face a top 25 run defense they won on average by 18.5 points per game. |
|||||||
12-29-17 | USC +8 v. Ohio State | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
USC / Ohio State Over 64.5 3.3% PLAY / USC +8 2.2% PLAY Both teams rank in the top 15 in explosive plays and both offensive strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses. USC gave up 49 and 35 points the two times they faced a good running team who also had a good running QB. Ohio State has averaged 53 points per game when they don't face a top 50 run defense. Ohio State has faced 4 passing teams ranked in the top 50 in QB rating and gave up on average 36.6 points per game, but it could have been more especially against Oklahoma. Ohio State shut out in their bowl game last year, but scored 44, 42, 42, and 35 in their previous 4 post season games, and USC scored 52 and gave up 49 in last year's Rose Bowl against Big Ten Penn State. On the spread side this is just too much value to pass up with the Trojans against Ohio State. This line is inflated based on what Ohio State did last year in their bowl game, and based on Urban Meyer's success of going 10-3 SU& ATS in bowl games. I understand the line and many people will point to USC's thrashing against Notre Dame who run a similar one dimensional run first offense, but USC was crippled along the defensive line with injuries. They had 20 guys who missed the game with injuries. They got healthier down the stretch and even managed to hold Stanford's rushing to 151 yards in the PAC 12 Championship. It's easier to scheme and game plan against the run and make a QB beat you. For USC's offense they have that QB that will play at the next level and he can carry this team to win the game or even a back door cover. Ohio State has faced 4 top 50 passing teams and they are 2-2 losing by 31 and 15 points. Allowing an average of 36 points per game. Their two wins came against Wisconsin by 6 and Penn State by 1. If Sam Darnold doesn't turn the ball over they should stay in this game. Darnold 17-4 TD/INT ratio down the stretch. Bake Mayfield shredded this secondary and they won at Ohio State by 15, but it could have been a lot worse. The other thing to point out is how bad Ohio State's special teams has been especially in the kickoff return defense and USC has dynamic players back there and rank #8 in KO return efficiency. |
|||||||
12-29-17 | NC State v. Arizona State +7 | 52-31 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Arizona State +7 3.3% play We have a unique situation with a coach being fired and sticking around for the bowl game to coach while the new coach is out recruiting. Originally I thought that might be a nightmare of a situation, but the more I am reading the more I am understanding that Todd Graham is respected around this program. He has recruited all of these players who are a tight nit group and want to send their coach out with a win. I think it also helps that Graham has not had to worry about recruiting the last few weeks like most of these bowl coaches. This game is being played in Texas and typically the PAC12 enjoys a big crowd edge against the ACC. They have dominated the ACC since 2010 going 18-2 which really surprises me. As many of you know I have been high on the ACC even calling them the best conference dating back to last year. I don't think they are the best this year, and I think there are some opportunities to fade teams out of the ACC in this bowl season. Looking at what these two teams bring to the table you have to like Arizona State as over a TD under dog. They have faced the better schedule and even have gone 5-2-1 ATS as a dog with 4 outright upsets this year. They beat teams like Oregon, Washington, Utah and Arizona while NC State beat Louisville, BC And Marshall not much to show for an 8-4 season that could have been much better. Todd Graham has also been good in bowl games. In terms of the match-up we have Arizona State's #29 passing attack facing the #43 passing defense, but they are without Bradley Chubb seen working on speed drills in practice while the rest of the team took their normal reps. As I expect he is now listed as doubtful for this game. Chubb is a monster and a one man wrecking crew, but they'll be without him and that is bad news for NC State's defense whose weakness is the green secondary. Ranking #43 is great, but they faced many teams without a pulse at QB. An average opponent ranking #73. Arizona State's offense did that against some very good defenses as well ranking on average 58.9. Just in their wins they have proven they could beat good defenses, Oregon, Washington, Utah to name a few. I look for receiver N'Keal Harry & Kyle Williams to have a big days. NC State, I have bet on a few times this year and I think like many folks we had higher hopes for them. They have a ton of talent, but they just beat themselves. THey are one of the worst special teams units in the country at #104 while Arizona State is #32. Their FG kicker is 9-19 on field goals and Arizona State's red zone offense and defense have an edge here. You'd also expect Arizona State to have some turnovers, but they have lost only 11 all season which is the lowest since Graham has been here. I was tempted to take this game on the money line, but NC State does have talent here with Finley at QB and Hines & Samuels. I can see a field goal game going either way. |
|||||||
12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
Wake Forest -3 5.5% POD This game is being played at BOA in Charlotte which gives Wake Forest a home field advantage. I also think there is a lot of value here with Wake Forest who had better results and faced a tougher schedule. On average they ranked #41.2 facing an average opponent ranking #56.1, while Texas A&m ranked #71 facing an average opponent ranking #59.7. A&M went 1-4 against 5 bowl teams while Wake Forest went 4-5 against 9 bowl teams. The ACC also has gone 2-1 SU & ATS in bowl play so far compared to a weak showing for the SEC at 0-1 with Missouri losing to Big 12 Texas as favorites. Even dating back to last year it has been evident that the ACC is better than the SEC. Another edge besides strength of schedule is the fact that Texas A&M has an inexperienced guy calling the shots in Jeff Banks. Banks is the special teams coach as Kevin Sumlin was let go and Jimbo Fisher took over. This has not worked out well thus far in bowl games. Banks special teams unit was a strength of this team ranking #40, but I think that has everything to do with the talents of Christian Kirk. For Wake Forest, Dave Clawson has won everywhere he's gone. He came in and fixed the biggest issue for Wake Forest was their size on the offensive line and has turned this offense around starting in 2015 when he started 4 freshman on the OL. This year this year they allowed 19 fewer sacks and averaged a yard more per carry and QB John Wolford also saw the benefit as he tossed 25 TD's and 6 INT's for the #12 ranked QB rating in the nation. That rating is legit too as Wake Forest faced off against a ton of top passing defenses with an average rank of #43.1. Wake Forest goes up against Texas A&M's #83 pass defense. Wake Forest faced three teams not in the top 50 in pass defense and they scored 43.3 points per game. A&M's pass defense is a bit misleading I'll admit at #83 hailing from the tough SEC, but the SEC was down this year. A&M faced 5 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they went 1-4. They beat an Ole Miss team that was starting a backup QB after Shea Patterson was lost for the season. In those 4 games they allowed 36.6 points per game. A&M has a nice pass rush, but Wake Forest was only sacked 17 times on the year. A&M's offense was hit or miss this year, and they'll struggle in my opinion facing the #25 passing defense. Wake Forest plays an aggressive style and even their run defense is better than the stats state as they faced an average rushing rank of #40.4. A&M ranks 83rd in rushing ypc after facing an average rushing defense 68.2, again the SEC is over rated! A&M generally took care of the ball with only 16 TO's and have a +4 margin, but they had 8 TO's in 3 games which were the only 3 times they faced a top 25 pass defense which Wake Forest is. Wake Forest however +7 in TO margin only turned it over 11 times and 5 of those came in games against top 30 pass defenses. They only turned the ball over 1 time in road games at Clemson and Notre Dame which is extremely impressive. |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Michigan State -1.5 v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Michigan State -1.5 5.5% POD This Michigan State team has a huge chip on their shoulder as they feel slighted for not being picked for the New Year's Day Outback Bowl. instead their rival who they beat, Michigan was chosen. I think they will give it their best to win and dominate this game and I think they can over a Washington team that has plenty of holes. First of all we need to bring up Washington State's game last year against Minnesota team that had 10 guys suspended or more yet they were unable to win losing 12-17. The previous two years they played in 3 point games against Rutgers so Washington has struggled in the Leach era against the Big Ten. Leach is actually only 4-8 ATS in bowl games and goes up against Dantonio who is a very good coach and will have his team ready for this game. Aside from the motivation I like the match-up here for Michigan State who rank #10 in pass defense and won't have to worry much about a rushing offense as Washington State ranks 129th in the nation in rushing offense. Luke Falk, QB at Washington State will have his hands full here against a press man to man coverage. He'll also be missing his top 2 WR for this game. For MIchigan State's offense it's all about QB Brian Lewerke. I think Lewerke was a bit banged up at the end of the year, but he is a guy who threw for over 885 yards in two games against very good defenses in Northwestern #26th in YPP allowed and Penn State 22nd in YPP allowed. He really only had one bad game against Ohio State on the road in a very bad spot. I would not be surprised to see Michigan State come out throwing against Washington State who will be without their best defensive player in Hercules Maat'fa for the first half for a suspension. They can then use their size late to wear down Washington State's smaller defensive front. Washington State #58 in rushing ypc defense. Michigan State's 3 losses came against very good run defenses ranking #19 on average. When they can run the ball they typically win and Washington showed it in the Apple Cup that Washington State struggles against a well coached physical style opponent. There are other factors I like here as Washington State has the #115 special teams and have turned the ball over 29 times this season. I thought Washington State's defense carried them this year and should keep this game close, but Falk will have some mistakes and they will continue to struggle in these type of match-ups. |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State -5.5 3.3% play This is a bit of a square play for me, but I have said all along that I thought the Big 12 was a bit better than the ACC from top to bottom. This to me is a bad match-up for Virginia Tech. Oklahoma State is a balanced offense that probably would have better numbers had their offensive line not been banged up in the middle of the season. Virginia Tech leans on their defense more than the offense, but they only topped 24 points once all season against a power 5 opponent. I don't see how that would get it done against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State outgained their power 5 opponents by 156.3 yards per game and 8 went to bowl games. Virginia Tech outgained their p5 opponents by 29.8 yards per game while 6 are in bowl games. Both teams faced a similar strength of schedule. Virginia Tech faced around a 72.1 opponent while Oklahoma State faced 73. Virginia Tech ranked on average 44.8th in the country in key stats, while Oklahoma State ranked 29.3. Both teams beat up on the weaker teams, but a key look in at who they lost to reveals Oklahoma State is the play for me. Virginia Techs' #13 passing defense only faced 1 top 60 passing offense in West Virginia. West Virginia threw all over Va Tech and outgained them by 123 yards, but lost the game. Mainly, because they turned the ball over and they ranked 100th against the run and 75th running the ball. Oklahoma State ranks #3 in passing, #38 in rushing ypc, and their run defense ranks 17th. They are a more complete football team, and in Virginia Tech's games against top 50 rushing teams they went 1-3 on the year. Those 4 opponents did not have a passing attack even remotely close ranking 61st, 114, 116, and 71st. Oklahoma State lost 3 games and each one came against a top 50 offense. Virginia Tech ranked #84 in yards per play offense. Their QB Josh Jackson is the key, but Oklahoma State has had success against mobile QB's this year holding Kenny Hill to just 15 yards. Jackson has to be able to run the ball for them to stay in this game, and I just don't see it happening. Lastly against common opponents Oklahoma State outgained Pitt & West Virginia in 2 road games by a total of 439 yards while Virginia Tech at home and neutral field were outgained by 114 yards. Virginia Tech's losses came by 14, 18 and 6 points to Georgia Tech. Last year in Fuente's first year they lost 4 games by 21, 14, 10, and 7. So in 7 loses for Fuente they have lost on average by 12.8 points per game and I can see a similar result here with Oklahoma State winning by 10-14 points. |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Virginia -1 v. Navy | 7-49 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Virginia -1 4.4% play I really like this match-up for Virginia in their first bowl appearance in 6 years. If this wasn’t being played on Navy’s home field this might be a max POD. Nonetheless, Virginia is about 150 miles away and should still have plenty of fans in the stands to balance it out a bit. The ACC went 3-0 vs. the AAC this year outscoring them by 30 points. Wake Forest (ACC) also beat Temple (AAC) as double digit dogs last year in the Military Bowl. Navy has had an uncharacteristic year and they lost again to Army to end the year. You always expect the service academies to play well in the bowl games in terms of effort, but I think Virginia just may want this a little more. I also will make the statement again having TV cameras around your program constantly is not a good thing. Navy had Showtime following them around and I don’t think it was a coincidence that it was their worst season in some time. Virginia has the defense to stop the option and there is no threat of a pass game with this Navy team. Whether it’s Malcolm Perry who can’t throw past 10 yards or Zach Abey who locks into one guy the Virginia defense knows they have to stop the option. Bronco Mendenhall has always been great at defending the option 8-2 SU & ATS dating back to his days at BYU. They also beat Georgia Tech this year as dogs and held them to 220 rushing yards 78 came on 1 run, while Georgia Tech had to pass a season high 24 times. Only two teams held Georgia Tech to less running yards, Clemson & Georgia, both playing in the college football playoff. LB Micah Kiser will be the difference he had 18 tackles in the game against Georgia Tech. Quin Blanding at S is another NFL future player along Chris Peace at LB this defense has the experience and knowledge to shut Navy down enough to win this game. Navy’s defense is going to have issues here. Their secondary ranks 120 th in opposing QB rating. Virginia’s Kurt Benkert has thrown 17 TD’s and 4 INT’s in wins and 8/6 in losses. He’s had a tough schedule facing 5 Top 30 passing defenses this |
|||||||
12-27-17 | Southern Miss +15 v. Florida State | 13-42 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Southern Miss +15 2.2% How can Florida State be a 17 point favorite right now with that offense, an interim coach, and a thinning roster playing without their best defensive player Derwin James. Many will point to their last game against LA Monroe to end the season as they won 42-10, but LA Monroe ranked 128th in YPP defense while Southern Miss ranks #31. Let’s also talk about Conference USA who is 4-4 in the bowl games this year. They are 1-4 on the year against ACC, but their weaker teams faced off. Their 2 bowl teams MTSU & Marshall went 1-1. Marshall lost to NC State by 17 points. Southern Miss is better than Marshall, and NC State is better than Florida State having beaten them at Florida State. Hard to gauge if Florida State is going to be interested. I have no doubt they like the interim coach Odell Haggins, and the players will want to look good for Taggart, but how much effort is this coaching staff really putting in right now against Southern Miss who is much more excited to be here and should have the crowd edge here. The keys to the game are whether or not Southern Miss can stop the run. Florida State’s offensive line has not been very good and Southern Miss had 94 tackles for loss this year. They rank #30 against the run and have beaten 5 teams with better rushing averages than Florida State. Southern Miss also shut down the two power 5 teams they faced in the running game holding both Tennessee and Kentucky to under 3 yards per carry. I think they can have similar success in this game. For Southern Miss offense they rely heavily on big plays and the steady running game of veteran Ito Smith. Florida State is definitely vulnerable against big plays especially without Derwin James as we saw last year. I think FSU will stop Ito Smith, but could allow some TD’s on big plays that will allow Southern Miss to stay in this game. Overall Florida State’s wins have come against very poor opponents with an overall average ranking of 75.7 when I average their ratings for (YPP O, YPP D, Rush YPC O&D, QB Rating O&D), and their losses came against an average 37.6. Southern Miss is a balanced team ranking 38.8 and has strengths in the right areas to contend in what I figure would be a low scoring game. |
|||||||
12-26-17 | Utah -6.5 v. West Virginia | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah -6.5 2.2% play Even though we are playing a premium to back Utah and Kyle Whittingham who is 10-1 in bowl games I am fine doing so. Mainly, because it's just a bad match-up for West Virginia who is playing without their QB Will Grier. There is a big drop off in my opinion with Chris Chugunov. They will also be playing without two offensive line man and RB Justin Crawford who rushed for 1,061 yards this season. The fact that Utah is also strong against the pass ranking #28 in opposing QB rating is a big deal. They are strong along the defensive line, and right now that is West Virginia's weakness heading into the bowl game. In fact in their 5 losses they faced an average pass defense ranked 53.6 while in their wins they faced an average pass defense ranked 108.5. Utah should be able to score points and with a high total of 57 it makes me like the 6.5 even more. Utah's offense is a bit under the radar as they haven't been healthy much of the season. When they have Tyler Huntley at QB and Darren Carrington at WR they are a different team. Both will play in this game. Utah also has a fantastic shot at running for over 150 yards where they average 40 points per game this year in 5 games they achieved that. Honestly, they probably would have more if Huntley was healthy more this year. The only time they did not eclipse 30 points was in a road game at USC where they lost 27-28 by going for 2. West Virginia's run defense is the big weakness. They have given up 170 or more yards in 8 out of 11 games. You bet Whittingham will take advantage of that weakness and Zack Moss can have a big day. Speaking of weaknesses. West Virginia #109 in special teams going up against Utah who ranks #12. |
|||||||
12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Off to a very bad start this week. Last night we lost the starting QB from FIU on the first series, and UAB looks like hot garbage, but confident a hot streak is on the horizon. San Diego State -6.5 3.3% play As you are all aware I'm a big Army supporter, and had them the last two years on the money line as max plays over Navy. This is just a bad match-up for Army in my opinion. This is by far the most complete team they will have faced outside of Ohio State of course. Rashaad Penny will play at RB for San Diego State, and he is a dynamic player. When we look across the board San Diego State is top 50 in YPP offense, defense, rushing ypc offense and defense, and QB rating offense and defense. They come in top 30 for 4 of those 6 categories. Compare that with Army who is in the top 100 in ypp offense and rushing ypc. San Diego State even has the edge in special teams and TO margin. We know Army has to run the ball to win games. They'll go up against a San Diego State defense ranked 22nd against the run. They are also used to seeing the option each year facing Air Force, and Rocky Long for years has had a lot of success defending the option. To beat San Diego State you must have a QB, in their two losses they faced an average opponent QB rating of 39, Army ranks 130. You also must have a good defense particularly against the run. Army ranks 102nd in ypp defense, and 108th vs. the run. Army can defend the option but against a pro style offense like this with the threat of the QB and speed they will struggle and give up some points like they did against North Texas in their 49-42 loss to close the year before the Army/Navy game. In San Diego State's 2 losses vs. Fresno & Boise State they both had very good defenses ranking 13th and 25th in yards per play allowed and 15th and 34th vs. the run. San Diego State also struggled and should have lost against Northern Illinois earlier in the year who also had a top defense. |
|||||||
12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 42 h 57 m | Show |
Central Michigan +3.5 5.5% POD This game is at elevation in Idaho which favors Wyoming who is used to playing in it, but in a match-up like this where the defenses should dominate I don't anticipate elevation playing too big of a factor, but we could have snow. The winds won't be too crazy so I don't anticipate the offenses being impacted too much. When we look at Wyoming they are getting too much credit here being favored. Josh Allen, the QB many NFL teams are interested in will be playing and I think that has a lot to do with the 3-3.5 point move, but I don't' agree with it. If you are a top 5 NFL QB draft pick you make the players around you better. Allen really has not done that, and part of it is how bad his offensive line has been ranking 124th in adjusted line yards. He's gotten no help from the running game either ranking 121st in ypc, while his QB rating is good for 104th. Central Michigan on the other hand has been in this role all year long. Favored in just 4 games they were able to win 8 and one could argue they were the best team out of the MAC. CMU has beaten up on poor offenses. Their 8 wins have come against an average offensive opponent ranking 109th in YPP and again Wyoming comes into this game ranking 124th so it fits what they have done all year. Their 4 losses have come against an average offense ranking 45.3 and as I mentioned that just isn't Wyoming. It's not as if Wyoming's offense has struggled because of strength of schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranking 75.4. Their wins have come against the bad defenses with an average rank of 103rd while their losses have come against an average defense ranking 42.2. Well, Central Michigan ranks 22nd in yards per play defense. When looking at Wyoming we know they have a very good defense. Ranking 12th in yards per play allowed while facing an average offense ranking 75.6. I looked deeper at what type of teams they struggled against. It was against teams with good QB play. Shane Morris from CMU is a good QB as the Chippewas ranked 54th in QB rating against an average opponent of 66.2 on defense which is a strong schedule. Wyoming against top 60 passing offenses went 1-4, and their 1 win came against a team that was not good defensively ranking 107th in yards per play defense. Central Michigan ranks 22nd. Meanwhile Central Michigan only went 2-3 against top 60 passing defenses. However their 3 losses came against teams who could move the ball ranking 54th, 20th, and 6th in yards per play, Wyoming ranks 124th. This recent line move offers tremendous value. I don't often like taking a team after finishing the season strong heading into a bowl with the long time off they lose their momentum. However, I like what I have seen many times form Central Michigan. I think they are the better team, and I could argue they faced a stronger schedule. They have won in situations against similar Wyoming teams more often than Wyoming has won against Central Michigan teams. |
|||||||
12-22-17 | UAB +7.5 v. Ohio | 6-41 | Loss | -135 | 41 h 10 m | Show | |
UAB +220 4% PLAY The Sun Belt the last two years has gone 4-0 against the MAC. Frank Solich in bowl games for Ohio has not done a good job going 2-8 dating back to his days at Nebraska. They have actually lost their last two years in bowl games against the Sun Belt, but are 7 point favorites here? UAB’s Bill Clark has done an amazing job for a team that wasn’t around the last two years and was up for coach of the year honors. The idea that UAB faced a weaker schedule doesn’t mean a lot to me here. UAB played up to their competition while Ohio seemed to play down. When looking at the average opponent rank in their wins they stepped up their play against their better opponents. For example they faced an average YPP defense of 75.1. Their wins came against an average 64.3 and their losses vs. 94. For Ohio the opposite was true. They faced an average opponent defense ranking 71.7. Their wins were against teams that didn’t play defense with an average rank of 81. Their losses came against defenses ranking 55.5 on average. UAB plays defense ranking 48th in YPP and that was better than Ohio’s 57th rank. The big key is the running games and running defense as both teams will run the ball 60% +. On paper Ohio has the edge as they rank they are 10th in rushing yards per carry, and 28th in rushing yards per carry defense. However, they went up against an average opponent ranking 80.6 in defense and 86.7 in offense. Compare that with UAB who ranked 50th in rushing yards per carry against an average defense ranking 71.5, and their defense ranked 81st, but they faced an average opponent ranked 66.3. Again they stepped up their play when they faced better rushing teams with a 3-0 record against teams in the top 50 in rushing ypc. Their wins came against an average opponent ranking 60.9 and their losses came against a 75.8. UAB also has the edge in adjusted line yards on the OL & DL coming in at 35 to 60, and 44 to 79. UAB also better in TO margin, but are not as good in special teams. Special teams would be the only reason I see them not winning this game. |
|||||||
12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
FIU +7 4.4% PLAY This game takes place in St. Petersburg, FL which is much closer for the FIU athletes. This game will be in a dome, and I think that favor FIU's offense here. I also like the coaching edge with Butch Davis 5-2 in bowl games, with Geoff Collins coaching in his first. I looked in depth at what both teams can do on the line of scrimmage and running the ball. FIU wants to run the ball and they rank 56th in yards per carry. They'll be going up against a Temple defense that has not been good against the run ranking 83rd, but some of that has to do with strength of schedule as they have faced an average opponent rush defense ranking 45th. However, FIU does have balance with the QB so it's not like Temple can sell out to stop the run. FIU faced 4 TOP 50 rushing defenses and they beat 2 of them. Looking at Temples ability to run the ball and it gets worse for Temple who ranks 88th in ypc, and that was against an average opponent run defense ranking 78th. They lost to 3 teams who did not rank in the top 70 in run defense much like FIU who comes in ranking 93rd, but had a tough schedule facing an average opponent offense ranking 56th. FIU went 5-1 against teams ranking 75th or worse against the run. Overall I give the edge running the ball in this game to FIU and it makes sense when we compare the offensive lines in this game. Temple ranks 118th in adjusted line yards, while FIU ranks 56th. Let's look at the passing attacks. As you may know Temple got a ton of credit down the stretch as they switched their QB to Frank Nutile and he did play better than Logan Marchi, but still turned the ball over 7 times. Marchi also went against passing defense ranked 103, 120, 111, 45 (loss), and 127. So I would believe most QB's could put up decent and probably better numbers than he did in those 5 games. Overall Temples passing offense still on the season ranked 82nd in QB rating and they faced an average opponent ranking 81st in QB rating defense. Not really impressed with Temples' offense at all. FIU meanwhile has a senior QB in Alex McGough who had a very good year and this offense had a QB rating ranked #29 in the nation and faced a tougher schedule facing opponent defenses ranking #65. Temple does have a clear edge in pass defense, but they only rank #65 and against teams ranked in the top 50 passing the ball they actually went 2-4 on the season. FIU, very bad against the pass, but they did have a tough schedule with an average opponent ranking #67. Temple may be able to move the ball in the air in this one, but I would expect FIU to force some turnovers. Slight edge to FIU here as well. I remind you that FIU is a dog. Mainly because of Temple's success down the stretch and their alleged strength of schedule. However, they turn the ball over far too much to be laying 7 points in FIU's home state. They have no edge in special teams ranking #22 to FIU's #21. They don't have a coaching edge, and their offense which would have to score a lot of points to cover this spread really is not good at throwing or running the ball. FIU's defense in my opinion is a bit under rated ranking #92 in yards per play, but an average opponent rank of #67. When facing an opponent offense ranking 60th or worse they went 6-1. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee +3.5 5.5% POD Since 2014, Conference USA is 15-5 against the Sun Belt and 4-2 this year. Their 2 losses came with their 2 worst teams Charlotte & UTEP facing two bowl teams from the Sun Belt. The 4 wins all by a TD or more. Middle Tennessee is a dog, because they only won 6 games, and Arkansas State is that sexy team with the sexy QB in Justice Hansen. However, the Blue Raiders were picked to win C-USA by many and in game 2 they went into Syracuse and won. The same place Clemson lost on the road later in the season. Also worth noting is Middle Tennessee played 6 bowl teams with 3 power 5 opponents. Arkansas State only had 2 opponents that are in bowls and played FCS and 1 power 5 opponent being Nebraska who did not get to a bowl game. Middle Tennessee lost their QB in after week 2 and the season really turned for the worse. They were already without their starting RB, Terrelle West to start the year. Both are healthy for the bowl game and when Stockstill is playing this offense ranks 36 points per game and without just 19.5. This is a very balanced offense with West back healthy he had 170 rushing yards in their last game and they have an extra week to prepare for this game vs. what Arkansas State has. Before we get to Middle Tennessee State's defense let's take a look at Arkansas State. This offense was amazing this year and Justice Hansen who threw for 3,630 yards 34 TD's and 15 interceptions. A closer look though reveals the defenses they have faced have been trash. An average opponent ranking 93.5 in yards per play allowed. Hansen has gone up against some of the worst passing defenses in the nation. 8 out of his 10 opponents were 91st or worse in pass defense. He faced Troy 65th, and lost and beat New Mexico State who ranked 52nd. MTSU faced 6 passing offenses in the top 60. MTSU ranked 20th in yards per play allowed with their defense really picking things up this year. In years past it was really their weakness that kept them from bowl wins. This year they had no choice but to play defense with Stockstill gone for most of the season. Middle Tennessee is also 12th in yards per completion which could cause some issues for Arkansas State's passing game while the run defense has been solid all year allowing just 5.61 yards per carry. Arkansas State's defense probably has seen one offense better and that was SMU who put 44 points up on them. There are a lot of ways MTSU can win this game. Arkansas State has no business being a favorite when they have turned the ball over 18 times in 6 road games this year. They are also averaging nearly 2 more penalties per game than Middle Tennessee ranking 125th in the nation. The one big strength their defense has that I can not deny is Ja'von Rolland-Jones who has 13 sacks in 11 games. However, MTSU typically under Stockstill gets rid of the ball fast he took just 14 sacks a year ago. This year the offensive line ranks 17th in sack rate on passing downs. I think Middle Tennessee comes into this game with a bit of a chip on their shoulder having not won a bowl game since 2009. Their leader Stockstill can lead them to a bowl game now that he's back and that's exactly what I'll predict. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 47 m | Show | |
Oregon -7 3.3% Play In my podcast I had mentioned there would be value on Oregon because Jim Leavitt their defensive coordinator was staying. There are still rumors that he may go to Florida State, but for now at least it seems like he's coaching for this game and that's a big deal as he dramatically improved this defense making them a top 30 unit with 5 yards per play allowed. Last year they allowed 6.4 which would have put them 115th in the nation to put things in perspective. Boise State's offense is not what it once was and they have been juggling QB's which I never like. Aside from some early big scoring games they have struggled against top 50 defenses scoring just 27ppg compared to 39.2 against non-top 50. They also scored 17 in back to back games against Fresno State. Fresno State a very balanced defense against the run and pass much like Oregon who is also top 50 in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per rush. I'm expecting a similar output from Boise State's offense who could be missing their best player in RB Alex Mattison who is questionable for this game. Oregon's offense has had its ups and downs this year and are likely without RB Royce Freeman here. Freeman is going to sit out to rest for the NFL draft. I never agree with that, but I say they are better off and have plenty of talent behind Freeman to fill in the gap. Justin Herbert, the QB will play in this game and if you have watched Oregon this year they are just a different offense with him in there. With Herbert the offense averaged 52 points per game and without only 15ppg. I paid dearly for backing Oregon a couple times without Herbert. Boise State is very good on paper just like they always are, but in reality they haven't faced any balanced offenses. Colorado State would be close and they put up 52 points on Boise State. Virginia had the QB bomb away for 42 points, and they gave up 47 to Washington State and their backup QB with a one dimensional attack. I would lean toward the over if I caught it early, but don't be surprised to see Boise State's offense really struggle here. If I caught wind of Leavitt definitely leaving then I would like the over a lot more. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 162 h 24 m | Show | |
North Texas +215 2% play Seth Littrell and his coaching staff a bit less distractions and are probably more excited to be here with a chance at a 10th win which would tie their program record. Troy had many bigger games this year including their win against LSU on the road, but the biggest win of the year came on the road against Arkansas State to share the Sun Belt Championship. Arkansas State had owned them previously and Troy finally got over that hump. I'm not saying Troy won't want to win this game, but of the two I have to think North Texas is a bit more excited here. We saw and bet against North Texas in the C-USA Championship, but it was because of the match-up. Against Florida Atlantic whose main strength is the running game they were in a tough spot. North Texas defense is not good against the run especially not good running games. This is a winnable match-up for them as Troy's offense ranks 85th in rushing yards per game. Troy's defense is also very strong ranking #27 overall in yards allowed, but their one weakness is against the pass ranking #69. North Texas sports a balanced offense that ranked 19th in total yards, but their strength is behind their QB Mason Fine. Troy's defense is also a bit misleading as they have only faced 4 teams inside the top 100 in yards per play. Boise State, New Mexico State, LSU, and Arkansas State. Every other team they had faced was ranked 115th or worse. North Texas ranks #34 with their balanced offense. North Texas also comes from the better conference. Conference USA is 15-5 the last 4 years against the Sun Belt and have covered 2 of the 3 bowl games they have matched up in during that time. North Texas a relatively big dog where we typically see CUSA a larger favorite. I think there is very good value here in the dog and I like them to pull the upset. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -10 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Clemson -10 2.2% play Clemson is a fully balanced team in playoff mode right now and I don’t think Miami who is probably low on confidence after their game against Pitt is ready for this step up game. This is the best offense, and the best defense that Miami has played all year and certainly the best team. Miami has only faced two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play. Toledo put 30 points on them really early in the season and Notre Dame I think we realized was over rated and one dimensional. Clemson is not one dimensional despite what the media may say. They can absolutely move the ball on the ground or the air and have a mobile QB. Miami’s 10th ranked defense might get exposed a bit here. Defensively, Miami’s inexperienced offense has not faced a team like Clemson. They have had issues blocking up front and it showed against Pitt who has the #81 ranked yards per play defense. Clemson #2 at getting to the QB in sack rate, and Miami again has not faced a top 30 pass rush all year, but Miami ranks 69th in protecting their QB and they have been worse of late. This is also a coaching mismatch let’s be honest. We have Miami OC Thomas Brown going up against Clemson Brent Venables. This is also a game of experience. Clemson has been in this game many times before and in the last two years have played in a ton of big games. Miami, it’s their first time in the ACC Championship game and while they played well in their step up games, those games were at home. Clemson in step up games won and covered the spread with ease. At ranked South Carolina last week, against Auburn in week 2, @ Louisville a ranked team at the time, and Virginia Tech another road game. Clemson won and covered each step up game and I don’t care about paying a premium to play them in this spot as I expect a cover and double digit victory. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Fresno State +9.5 v. Boise State | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
Fresno State +9 3.3% play These two teams just met last week and while it was evident Boise did not show up to play in the loss I don't think this hurts Fresno State one bit. I think it gives Fresno State a bit of confidence. They had beaten Boise State by 1 point in 2013, but had lose every other game dating back to 2007. I think that gives them confidence and looking at all the numbers they actually have the better defense. I love taking the better defense getting over a TD in a championship game. So both teams passed the ball more times than they ran the ball last week. That went against their season averages of running the ball more during the regular season. Boise runs the ball 53% of the time while Fresno comes in at 55%, but last week Boise decided to run it 46% of the time, and Fresno 45%. I expect them to both try to run the ball again early in this one which favors Fresno State. Fresno State ranks 64th in ypc compared to Boise State who ranks 80th. Fresno also faced the tougher schedule facing an average opponent ranking 57th compare to Boise opponents at 60.75. Fresno also had wins over run defenses ranking 20, 31, 27, and 18th. Run defense favors Boise State who ranks 18th, compared to Fresno at 36th, but it's closer than that with Fresno facing an average opponent rushing offense ranking 54.9 compared to Boise's 64.5. At the end of the day I think both these teams will struggle to run the ball and there is no edge giving one team the opportunity to run away with this game. I think these teams are very much even and we are getting 9 points to play with. I've heard sharps mention Boise -9 based on last week's -7 spread on the road as line value as they should be -13 this week. I disagree. I think Vegas set that line knowing these teams were going to have a vanilla game plan. When you look at recent common opponents between these two teams Vegas values Boise State at about 4 points better add on the 3 for home field advantage and this line should be around 7 points. However, Boise State at home under Bryan Harsin has not been very good. Especially with his recruits in there as they have gone 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. They covered their last two as big favorites at home, but against just awful defenses in Nevada and Air Force. As a 15.5 point favorite against Wyoming who has a good defense they failed to cover. So we saw a similar situation last year with Wyoming facing San Diego State 2 weeks prior to the championship game and we saw a 4 point swing. Wyoming out gained San Diego State in both games. They won the regular season match-up 34-33, and lost the championship game 27-24. Both games were close and I expect the same thing here with Fresno and Boise State. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | South Alabama +10 v. New Mexico State | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 43 h 60 m | Show | |
South Alabama +300 2% play This is a live dog here with South Alabama’s head coach Joey Jones hanging it up after this game. He’s 52-49 as the only head coach for South Alabama. I think his players will give it their all and they have already upset the best two teams in the conference in Arkansas State & Troy. They did it with their defense holding them under 100 yards rushing. New Mexico State only averages 3.8 yards per carry and have been held under 100 yards 6 times this season. South Alabama also forced turnovers +8 in those two games. New Mexico State’s Tyler Rogers has 15 interceptions on the year. South Alabama is a team that in 2016 with just 6 wins had a lot of bad losses, but somehow were able to beat Miss State on the road 21-20, and San Diego State. South Alabama also has an extra week to prepare and again I don’t think it is a meaningless game for them as I expect them to try to ruin New Mexico State’s hopes of going bowling with a win here. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -7 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 65 h 11 m | Show | |
Oklahoma -1 / Georgia +8.5 4.4% Teaser (Over 56% ATS Career on NCAAF Teasers) Oklahoma - I actually took Oklahoma a while back at +1200 to win the national championship, but I have great respect for TCU’s head coach Gary Paterson, and that is why I’m using Oklahoma in a teaser even though I like them to win this game 10-14 points. I don’t see anyway Kenny Hill and TCU will be able to beat Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma here. I bet Oklahoma in the first match-up as a POD you can find that analysis here. In that game I mentioned TCU’s defense had actually struggled vs. good offenses stating, TCU facing top 50 offenses (20, 3, 14th, 1) they gave up an average 500.75 yards per game and 32.25 points per game in those 4 match-ups. Oklahoma scored 38 in the first half and cruised after having the big lead. TCU obviously very good at adjustments and shut Oklahoma out in the second half, but again I don’t think Oklahoma was really showing their full offense in the second half. I also think Oklahoma was humbled the week they had to bench Baker Mayfield for a few snaps last week, and the offense has only gotten better with the emergence of RB Rodney Anderson who is a threat at RB 151 yards 2 TD’s in the first match-up and out of the backfield as a receiver, 5 receptions for 139 in the first match-up. Look for TCU to take him away, but as we know Oklahoma has many weapons. For TCU Kenny Hill has to show me something here, and he looked good against Baylor at home last week after missing the Texas Tech game, but Baylor doesn’t play defense at all ranking 115th in yards per play allowed. I still think Oklahoma’s defense doesn’t get enough credit. They will have the chance to make adjustments too and I think it’s easier for Oklahoma’s defense to make adjustments on TCU than TCU on Oklahoma, because TCU’s offense is not as dynamic. Unless Kenny Hill is going to come out throwing the ball 40+ times I don’t see them catching Oklahoma off guard in this one. I like the value of this game with a teaser as I see Oklahoma having issues at times in this game, but at the end of the day they’ll win. Georgia – Do not be prisoner of the moment with Auburn knocking off two teams in 3 weeks who were ranked #1 with Georgia being one of them. That was a huge emotional victory a week ago for Auburn where they really had to give it their all and are more banged up for this game. It’s also important to note that Auburn will now be on the road. I know it is a neutral site, but it will be played in Atlanta. Georgia in the first match-up climbed to a 4 point favorite and I took Auburn in that match-up so I am flipping sides here a little, but I like the value we are getting. If this game took place on a neutral field just 3 weeks ago the spread would be -5 or even -6 Georgia. Now we are working with nearly 8 points of line value + our 6 on the teaser gives us a full 2 TD’s of line value. Now that’s not to say Georgia is the better team, but I think they will be in a dog fight (no pun intended) Georgia actually looked good in the first quarter in this game easily going down the field and scoring a TD to take a 7-0 lead. I think their offense will look good here and Jake Fromm is fully capable of having a better game now that he knows what to look for from this Auburn defense. An Auburn defense that just allowed 211 yards rushing to Alabama. I think Georgia should also have confidence with a balanced attack here. It won’t be as difficult to run on Auburn when they are not in Auburn’s home building. Now Georgia actually did a good job holding Auburn’s running game intact for the most part they only scored 1 rushing TD, but Kerryon Johnson was just that good rushing for 167 yards on 32 carries. However, Johnson is banged up and I am sure he will go, but how long before he injures his shoulder again in this game? The drop off at RB is significant in my opinion. Next, we have Jared Stidham his home and away splits are interesting. He has a 175 QB Rating at home and a 137 on the road which is still good, but Georgia is one of the best passing defenses in the nation. Georgia actually had 6 QB hurries and 2 sacks in the first game. We know Auburn’s pass blocking has improved throughout the season, but it’s still something you have to factor into this game. Georgia’s front 7 havoc rate ranks 37th compared to Auburn at 74. At the end of the day I think these two teams are pretty even. The game should be a pk, but it’s not because of recent Auburn wins, I’ll look to fade them and hope Georgia can pull the upset as I am holding a +1800 ticket for them to win the national championship. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Memphis +7.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 55-62 | Win | 100 | 94 h 15 m | Show |
Memphis +7.5 5.5% POD / Memphis +250 1% We have two very similar teams meeting again in Florida for the AAC Championship game. These two met back in week 3 and it was a UCF win 40-13. Central Florida opened as a 2.5 point favorite in that game and climbed to 5.5 at close. We really did not know much about that team, and Memphis did not either. Fast Forward and neither of these teams have lost a game since and it's an interesting rematch between the two, but we are getting 4.5 - 5 points of line value, because on a neutral field these two teams are as evenly matches as possible. Both head coaches are looking to better jobs next year most likely, and they are backed by two very good balanced offenses while both defenses really leave a lot to be desired. Central Florida 96th vs. the pass, Memphis is 98th, and on paper we should have a high scoring game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower scoring game here. In the first match-up Memphis pretty much played as bad as you can with 4 turnovers. It was their first road game of the season and it really looked like it. The turnovers were pretty bad there was a fumble in the red zone that took away at least 3 points off the scoreboard. Shortly after Central Florida had a 95 yard TD run recapping momentum and taking a huge 16-7 lead at the time. Later in the second quarter Riley Fergusson threw an interception that was tipped as Memphis was driving which was returned 35 yards and later UCF scored a TD making it 23-7. At that point the balanced offense that Memphis does possess was sort of out the window. In the third Fergusson threw another interception as Memphis was driving. This one was just a bad throw, but probably took another 3-7 points off the board for the Tigers. The third interception came after a huge 3rd and 12 where the receiver dropped a wide open catch. On 4th down Fergusson forced a ball that was dropped again by his receiver and picked off setting UCF up in their own territory leading to another TD. All in all there were also 3 fumbles in this game which UCF recovered each and every one. Simply luck if you ask me. I expect this game to be tight much like UCF's last game. UCF was actually lucky to beat USF who out gained them by 120 yards and won on a 95 yard kickoff return for a TD. In reality UCF's defense has not looked as dominant down the stretch they have been worse in run offense and defense as the months have progressed yet they have been helped by a very easy schedule. Their 3rd down play which really won them the game in the first match up as they converted 10-18 and allowed just 4-12 and 1-4 on 4th down has been a struggle lately. They are converting just 38% over their last 4 games and have allowed 40% conversion over their last 4 games. Memphis defense has gotten better throughout the season allowing 52% conversions in September, 44% in October, and then 32% in November. It was just a bad game for Memphis they match-up pretty well in this game and definitely have the ability to win this game. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Notre Dame -2 v. Stanford | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Notre Dame -2 4.4% POD This game actually has a lot of implications. Stanford is hoping to win and get into the PAC 12 Championship game if Washington can beat Washington State. Notre Dame is looking for a 10th win to play in the New Years 6 which is entirely possible. When you look at Notre Dame they have played extremely well and their only two loses have come at the hands of Miami and Georgia. For Notre Dame, they have struggled this year when they have faced top 25 defenses. Their loss against Georgia was against the countries #8 defense, they struggled against Michigan State #17, but got a big win. They struggled at Miami #12. Now they face Stanford who is #70 in yards per play allowed, and actually 89th vs. the run. This is not your prototypical Stanford defense. Even Cal last week ran all over Stanford nearly pulling the upset. Cal has the #126 ranked yards per carry rushing offense and they averaged 5.54 ypc on the road at Stanford. Notre Dame is #2 in the nation and is the best rushing offense that Stanford has faced all year by far. For Notre Dame they are arguably facing the worst running defense they have faced all year. Notre Dame's defense is another key here. I don't think Bryce Love is healthy and we have seen Cal, and Oregon State be competitive with Stanford. Oregon State without Love, and Cal was able to take Love out of the game. Notre Dame clearly has the capability and talent to take one player out of this game and I think they'll be able to do that, and I won't be surprised if Love gets banged up again in this game. Lastly, I'm not a big supporter of the PAC 12. I think it's a weak conference and has even fallen below the Big 12. While Notre Dame is Independent they tend to play a lot of ACC and Big Ten opponents. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
Washington State +10.5 3.3% Play
Meanwhile Washington was lucky to get by Utah at home as a 17.5 point favorite. A Utah team that was playing without some of their best players. Washington's defense gave up 30 points in back to back games. Washington State's offense is completely one dimensional, but I expect they can score enough to keep them in this game. Washington State under Mike Leach as a road dog in the Pac 12 is 14-7 ATS. You would think they would be at a disadvantage on the offensive and defensive line, but in adjusted yard rankings Washington State is better than Washington in both categories. As much as I mentioned Washington State being better this year. It also a fact that Washington is not as good as last year. They are averaging .5 yards less per play. Jake Browning has 18 TD's and 5 interceptions, but last year he had a 43/9 ratio and now he goes up against a Washington State defense that thrives on getting to the QB. Washington State's defense is allowing a 104 QB rating. A year ago they allowed 138 and 12 more passing TD's. Washington State must force turnovers and win the turnover battle if they'll win this game, but I see no reason why they should get beat by double digits. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Alabama v. Auburn +5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Auburn +5 3.3% play / Auburn +175 1% play Auburn has a far superior strength of schedule here playing at Clemson, at LSU, they also got Georgia at home from the East who they dominated. Alabama really can't claim a quality win other than Miss State on the road whom they should have lost to. Miss State just lost last night as a 15 point favorite to Ole Miss. Auburn much more impressive in their game over Ole Miss. Auburn also against the two teams Alabama struggled against (Texas A&M & Miss State), both games decided by one possession. Alabama won 58-43 combined. Meanwhile Auburn won 97-37. I think Auburn's defense here is getting a bit disrespected and Alabama really has not faced a team this balanced in the sense that they can play defense at a top 10 level and they can play offense at a top 10 level. Maybe LSU was close ranking 38th in yards per play offensively and 23rd defensively, but Auburn is #20 and #5. LSU also faced Alabama on the road (24-10 loss). LSU is also a run first team and they don't get as much out of their QB. Auburn is ranked #6 in QB rating behind Jared Stidham who has 16 passing TD's and 4 INT's. Let's not forget Auburn is home here and when they have a good team they normally win this game. Especially when they are at home. I think Alabama is a misleading team this year I don't think they are as good as their stats say. |
|||||||
11-24-17 | California +7 v. UCLA | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
California +7 4.4% POD / California +235 1% This game is a very important for both teams with a 6th win and a bowl game on the line. However, I feel it's much more important to the Cal team who have a first year head coach who has transitioned the program to a completely different style of football. The extra practice would be a huge benefit. On the other side you have UCLA, with Josh Rosen who likely will be a top 10 draft pick playing after their head coach was fired. Does Rosen want to risk an injury? Does he even want to get to a bowl game? I have far more questions on the UCLA side than Cal. Even if UCLA comes to play I like what I have seen from this Cal team in this role this season. Wilcox has a very good defensive mind, and I think they are able to take Rosen out of this game a bit. I read an article about how Cal is awful against the pass. Really? They have faced 3 future NFL QB's this year. Ole MIss, Shea Patterson, Washington State's Luke Falk, and USC's Sam Darnold. They won 2 of those 3 games as an under dog and held the trio of NFL QB's to 4 passing TD's and 8 interceptions. Now they'll be facing Josh Rosen, who I admit is the best of the bunch, but I don't see him having the mindset to beat a Cal team who will be full invested in a win. Now, you also have an advantage with Cal's under rated running team. Patrick Laird has really come on to be a force. They ran for 155 yards at Stanford last week and while Stanford has not had the best defense this year they are still much better than UCLA who ranks 119th in the country vs. the run. This sets up well for Cal to not only stay in the game, but pull the upset as I think they will. |
|||||||
11-24-17 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Florida International | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 5 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky -2.5 2.2% play Whoever can pass the ball better in this game will win the game. Again, I am going with the road team as the more focused team the day after a holiday. Western Kentucky, who I have been down on all year has continued to get better. I have been impressed with their defense especially, and I can see them really dominating this game. Mike White started this season slow, but he has put up monster numbers with 3,471 passing yards 22 TD's and 7 INT's. He's really starting to connect with his receivers and in their wins this year he has a 17 TD / 3 INT ratio with a 157 QB rating. In their losses they have a 123 QB rating. They key is to pass the ball here for them since they are so bad running it. Good news is that they go against a defense that's not very good. Florida International can't get to the QB, and they rank 105th in opposing QB rating. In their losses they have allowed a 191 QB rating. Overall they have allowed 17 passing TD's to just 6 interceptions. I think Western Kentucky can play this game pretty comfortably. Offensively I don't think FIU can keep up. Alex McGough is a solid QB, but 13 TD and 7 INT's is not going to get it done against Western Kentucky's #12th ranked passing defense. I played Middle Tennessee last week and they were able to move the ball against Western Kentucky, but that offense is far superior than FIU. I really think Western Kentucky have turned the corner from their early season struggles which was to be expected after losing Jeff Brohm to Purdue and hiring a new coaching staff that had no coaching experience. |
|||||||
11-24-17 | Northern Illinois -3 v. Central Michigan | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 29 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois -3 3.3% Play Northern Illinois will be playing this game with fire as they can get to the MAC Championship game with a win, and a Toledo loss. Toledo will be playing 30 minutes earlier so the game will be going on at the same time. I expect head coach Carey will try to avoid letting his players know what's going on in the game between Toledo and Western Michigan. For Central Michigan this game really means nothing other than jumping Northern Illinois in the standings. Northern Illinois also lost this game last year and would like to have revenge. I really like how this game matches up here. For one the road team actually has an advantage being on the road the day after a holiday they should be more focused. The other thing is Central Michigan's strength is passing the ball and stopping the pass. They are ranked 98th vs. the run. Northern Illinois is actually a top pass defense 38th in opposing QB rating and 6th in sack %. Central Michigan relies heavily on the pass, and the 3 times they have faced a good pass defense ranking in the top 10 they scored 10, 8, and 14 points losing all three games by 17, 20, and 20 points. Here they just have to lose by 4 or more. Expect Northern Illinois pass rush led by Sutton Smith (13 sacks) to really be the reason Northern Illinois can come out of here with a double digit victory. In addition to that edge Northern Illinois has a balanced offense. They can run and throw the ball. So even though Central Michigan is poor against the run, they can't sell out against it because Northern Illinois is fully capable of passing the ball. The other thing to note here is 15mph winds. Less than ideal for a pass happy Central Michigan. I believe Northern Illinois will be better int he red zone. I don't expect a super high scoring game, but Northern Illinois should walk away with a big win. |
|||||||
11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -14.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Miss State -14 -120 buy 1/2 - 2.5% Play I get that this is Ole Miss bowl game, but I think they are a very flawed team. It's obvious that their head coach Matt Luke is not coming back, and that this team is in a tough situation following a game against Texas A&M where they finally played a bit tougher competition. Now this is an even bigger step up playing their hatred rival, but Miss State is poised to play their best game as well and I like the match-ups in this one. Miss State also fighting for a win here and a win in their bowl game to get to 10 wins. Their only losses were against Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia so they have had a pretty challenging schedule. Ole Miss is ranked 119th vs. the run in terms of rushing yards per carry allowed. Now they have faced 3 teams in the top 31 and have given up 40, 44, and 66 points in losses. Miss State is ranked #24 running the ball and also have a mobile QB. The last time they faced a mobile QB it was Alabama and they gave up 66 points as Jalen Hurts ran wild for 101 yards on only 10 carries. So that is strength vs. weakness which favors MIss State who has also won big against the average to good teams. With the exception of Arkansas last week. That actually gives us some value and if you can't get -14 at -120 odds I think you are still safe. Against Arkansas they got off to a horrific start down 14-0 after a fumble return for a TD and they won 28-21. However, that was on the road and off a tough game against Alabama that they let slip away. Here they are in a much better spot in my opinion to win and win big. Ole Miss is a one dimensional offense that really hasn't faced a lot of top passing defenses. Their back up Jordan Ta'amu has looked good, but it started to show last game against a good defense. A&M ranked 66th vs. the pass and can also get to the QB. A&M shut them out in the second half and that was in their own building. Miss State has the #33 passer rating defense and is top 10 at getting to the QB. They are even better on defense at home and this is a night game as well where Miss State is even better. I think they'll be focused to get out to a good start considering how they left their last game. This is a completely different challenge for the Ole Miss QB and Ole Miss is already -8 TO margin. I expect Miss State to get out to a fast start which should create an issue with Ole Miss motivation. If we get to the half and they are down don't expect much effort from this team late. I can see Miss State scoring in the 40's and holding Ole Miss in the 20's. Don't fall into the trap of taking the dog in this rivalry game. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | California +16 v. Stanford | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show | |
California +16 3.3% play Cal has been in this game the last two years losing by 13 and 14 points. I think they are a better team this year especially since they brought in a new coach in Wilcox who has created a very good defense and a more balanced offense. What if I told you Cal had the better defense from a yards per play perspective? You would be shocked, but that's exactly the case here as Cal is ranked 59th and Stanford is ranked 67th. Cal has an extra week to prepare against a one dimensional offense in Stanford. I could actually see Cal winning this game especially since they need a win to get to a bowl. Stanford is off a huge win over Washington, but still need to win this game to get to the PAC 12 Championship. They do have Notre Dame on deck which makes this interesting. Either way Cal's defense is playing better allowing 14 points per game and 86 yards per game under what they allowed last year. An extra week to prepare for Bryce Love and I see Cal giving Stanford some issues here. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt +9.5 | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt +280 2% play You may have remembered Vanderbilt needing 2 wins in their final 2 games to get to a bowl last year. They beat Ole Miss as 9.5 point dogs 38-17, and beat Tennessee 45-34 as a 7 point dog. This year they need the same thing and it starts this week against Missouri, and on the road against Tennessee. Two winnable games. Here they'll host red hot Missouri. At some point this hot streak for Missouri has to end. They have been covering the spread by outrageous numbers of 25 points, 27.5, 26.5, and 33 points against the spread just over the last 4 weeks. That has led to Missouri getting a ton of credit from the bookmakers. This situation hey are in is a bit different than the last 4 weeks when they faced Idaho, Uconn, and two SEC teams at home who fired their HC's this year. Now Missouri goes on the road to face a capable Vanderbilt team. I realize they got smoked a week ago against Kentucky, but -4 TO's will do that. Kentucky actually only outgained Vanderbilt by 59 yards so this game was a lot closer than it seemed. There are a few big differnces in this match up. For one it's a road SEC game, and secondly Vanderbilt is not under fire like Tennessee & Florida was. They also have a capable QB in Kyle Schurmur who has passed 21 TD's and 7 INT's. Missouri just faced 105 and 117th ranked passing programs and they did so at home. Missouri actually ranks 69th in QB rating, but before their last 3 games it was actually a lot worse. They have benefited from the schedule of late that's for sure. Vanderbilt should be able to move the ball through the air in this game. Missouri is -6 TO margin, and Vanderbilt will be extra concentrated on taking care of the ball after being -4. I expect them to take care of the ball Drew Lock is known for turning the ball over |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Purdue +8 v. Iowa | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 43 h 56 m | Show |
Purdue +8 5.5% POD / Purdue +250 1% play Iowa just came off two gigantic games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. I don't know how they get up for this game to be honest and Purdue matches up well. Purdue also wants and needs this game more as they are 4-6 and need to win out to get into a bowl game. Jeff Brohm has Purdue competitive in just every game and I don't see any reason to believe that won't be the case here. I really don't think the line is right for this one. Iowa is -84 yards per game in conference play, but they have that big win against OHio State that nobody will forget. Purdue is just -2 yards per game in conference play and have a very good run defense. Iowa when held under 135 yards average only 13.25 points per game. I really think this Purdue team can keep Iowa's rushing totals in that area. There will be 19 mph winds and it'll be 40 degrees in this one making the running game that much more important so let's take a look at how these two match-up. Surprisingly Purdue has the better rushing offense and rushing defense. Purdue averaging 4.4 ypc and 4.34 in conference play they have the #11 offensive line in adjusted line yards. Iowa just 3.68 ypc and 3.58 in conference play ranking #74 on the offensive line. Defensively Purdue allowing just 3.71 ypc and 3.58 ypc in conference play while Iowa allowing 4.35 ypc and 4.44 in conference play. Purdue ranks #1 in adjusted line yards on the defensive side of the ball given their strength of schedule while Iowa ranks 108th. Iowa has faced an average rushing offense ranked 74th while Purdue has faced an average rushing offense ranked 48th. On the flip side Iowa has faced a stronger rushing defense average at #32 compared to Purdue at #55. At the end of the day these teams are both well coached, and this game means more to Iowa and we are getting over a TD against two teams where the game should be shortened. I wouldn't be shocked if Purdue pulls the upset here. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Fresno State -2.5 v. Wyoming | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show | |
Fresno State -2.5 3.3% Play Wyoming has covered 7 games in a row and are winning games based on their defense and ability to force turnovers. They are ranked #1 in the country in TO margin with +17. They have been fortunate because they haven’t faced many teams that have a good TO margin ratio. The teams that were above average in takeaways were also giving the ball away. Half of their opponents were ranked 100 or worse in either takeaways or giveaways. Boise State was the only team with a good TO margin ratio at +8 and Boise won 24-14. Fresno comes into this game at +8 and ranked 17th in the nation having turned the ball over only 9 times. Fresno State needs to win this game to get to the conference championship. A win and they are in with the tie breaker over San Diego State. Fresno has Boise on deck so I doubt they want to leave it to that game especially when they are facing a Wyoming team that’s ranked 124th in yards per play. They have played some bad defenses along the way as well and can’t seem to get anything going despite having an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. Allen is actually questionable for this game along with Fresno’s starting QB Marcus McMaryion. However, both of these teams run the ball 55% of the time anyway, and the weather looks to be less than ideal for passing with 18 mph winds. With that said let’s look at the running games and running defenses of each team. First of all the strength of schedule is in favor of Fresno State. They faced an average run defense ranking 58.8, while Wyoming has faced a run defense ranking on average 68.3. Fresno clearly the better running game in the top 50 in the nation and averaging 4.76 ypc, and 4.91 in conference play compared to Wyoming who is ranked 123rd nationally. Wyoming averaging 3.09 ypc and 3.38 in conference play. Run defense, Fresno State has faced an average rushing offense ranked 44.7 while Wyoming has faced 63.6. With that said Fresno despite facing the stronger schedule has better numbers against the run. Fresno allowing 3.64 ypc, just 3.45 ypc in conference play with just 3 rushing TD’s allowed in conference play. Wyoming’s defense 3.66 ypc on the season, and 3.72 ypc in conference play while allowing 7 rushing TD’s in conference play. Fresno needs this win, they don’t turn the ball over and it could be argued that they have the better defense. While that may not show up statistically they have by far faced a stronger schedule as we have outlined which typically messes with stats a bit. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Michigan +7.5 v. Wisconsin | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 63 h 20 m | Show | |
Michigan +7.5 4.4% Play I don't want to get caught up in the strength of schedule here, but there is a difference in strength of schedules, and I think Michigan actually matches up well here against Wisconsin. Last year it was a 14-7 victory for Michigan, and this team is not looking ahead to Ohio State. Jim Harbough needs a big win like this, and I think his team at this point is a bit under rated given their rank. They lose a fluke game against Michigan State, a game that they lost by 4 points, but had a -5 TO margin ratio. If you are -5 TO's you expect to lose b y much more in my opinion. For Wisconsin they just don't have the offense in my opinion to outscore and cover a large spread against a top 5 defense. Wisconsin just lost their best WR for the season in Sephus, and their QB Hornibrook has thrown 12 interceptions and is really average with below average arm strength. Their Heisman hopeful Johnathan Taylor actually has 6 fumbles on the year. Wisconin has faced just 1 team in the top 65 in yards per play offense and that was Florida Atlantic before they were a dominant offense back in week 2. Michigan ranks 71st, but they have played a slew of top 50 defenses. Michigan's offense is actually playing with confidence right now and over their last 3 games have averaged 6.7 yards per play which would actually put them 11th in the country. While, Wisconsin actually ranks 26th overall with 6.2, but over their last 3 games they are averaging 5.2 which would actually put them 90th. Brandon Peters has taken over at QB and has looked far better than O'Korn and Speight, but when you look at Michigan is really a mirror image of what Wisconsin is and likes to do. Both teams run the ball 60% of the time, and are supported by below average QB's, and lean on their defense to pick up the win. Both defenses are top 5, and Wisconsin has faced some good defenses, but nothing to this caliber. They have been able to wear defenses and offensive lines down this season, but I just don't see it happening here. Actually when looking at offensive and defensive line adjusted yards Michigan ranks 11th and 10th on the DL & OL while Wisconsin comes in 43rd, and 20th. Michigan also has a major advantage in both areas in power success rate. That's a huge advantage here as it's supposed to also be windy. Michigan's QB Peters has the better arm, he has the better athletes and so far he's taken care of the ball as well. Neither team protects their QB well. Michigan ranks #1 in getting to the QB in the nation while Wisconsin is right there so again another area where these two teams are very much even. At the end of the day it's a lot of pressure for Wisconsin that I think they can handle, but this is just too many points. JIm Harbough has lost 8 games since coming to Michigan. 6 of the 8 games were by 7 or less points. Wisconsin really not a team that blows you out unless they are getting turnovers which they have been able to secure the last two games forcing Indiana & Iowa into late game turnovers. Michigan has only turned the ball over 14 times this year with only 5 on the road. They have played 5 games since their game against Michigan State where they turned the ball over 5 times. In their last 5 games they have turned the ball over a total of 2 times. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Central Florida v. Temple +14 | 45-19 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
Temple +14 3.3% play / Temple +447 1% play Temple needs this game big time if they are going to go to a bowl game with 5 wins and they have an extra day to prepare. Central Florida is undefeated and playing with a ton of pressure. Not only do they have a bit of a look ahead with South Florida next week waiting for them, but their head coach Scott Frost is being rumored for the Florida head coaching jobs and others. We have seen this before before Justin Fuente and Tom Herman the last two years took on bigger jobs at Virginia Tech and Texas their team were big favorites and lost outright. Temple is playing their best football right now and it's the offense that is playing well over the last 3 games 6.6 yards per play which would put them top 20. It's no surprise that happened when they went to Frank Nutile at QB who is playing well and the run game also benefited with two 200+ rushing yard games out of their last 3. Defensively they are the best defense that Central Florida has faced all year. UCF has not faced a top 60 defense all year. Temple is a defense that can get to the QB they currently rank 15th in sack rate and are even better at home. That's something that QB that Central Florida could struggle with here. They have faced just one team in the top 50 in sack rate (SMU) and they forced UCF into 3 TO's. Central Florida +11 on the season relies on winning the turnover margin to win games. Their defense has shown holes in their last two games, and in their last two road games the offense only put up 31 points in each. Who did they face in those road games? The 112th, and 118th ranked defense form a yards per play allowed perspective. Temple comes in ranking 56th. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 5 m | Show | |
Texas +3.5 3.3% play Texas has major defensive strengths in this one something West Virginia has struggled against. They have done well vs. the run and the pass. Texas weaknesses right now are the injuries they have had to withstand, but let's be honest they need to win to get to a bowl game. This is another opportunity for Tom Herman to beat a ranked opponent as well and we know Herman's success against ranked foes, and as a dog. The good thing is I think we see more of Sam Ehlinger finally. I gambled and thought he'd play against TCU, but he didn't and I paid for it. He got a drive against Kansas, and I feel like it will only be a matter of time before he gets in this game and makes a difference. Texas defense though is the major reason I'm backing them here. They have held both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to season lows in points. West Virginia's offense as unstoppable as they have looked are beatable. In their last two games they were actually shutout in the 2nd half. That's a major red flag, and I think there is a major coaching advantage on the Texas sidelines. This Texas team is desperate for a big win as well. As well as they have played in games they were under dogs their fans and boosters expect wins. Texas is 5th in the nation in points allowed in the second half so if they can get out to a fast start I can see them winning this game outright. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | UL-Monroe +37 v. Auburn | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 39 h 54 m | Show | |
LA Monroe +37 3.3% play This is the ultimate sandwich game for Auburn who just got done defeating #1 Georgia, and then they have Alabama on deck for the Iron Bowl and a chance at the SEC Championship game. I don't see them taking this game very serious and we have seen Auburn relax against weaker talent. They came off a game against Clemson at the beginning of the year and beat Mercer 24-10. They are also 0-3 ATS in their last 3 the week before Alabama. They are also 2-10 ATS when laying 20+ points. For Monroe they cans core points. They put up 52 points on App State their last time out. App State is a good defense. To put it in perspective App State gave up 221 yards on 44 carries and 3 rushing TD's to Georgia. Monroe had 213 yards on 38 carries and 3 TD's. Monroe also has just 11 TO's on the year and they will run the ball 55% of the time. Auburn will run it 68% of the time at home. This game should tick tick tick and 37 points is a bargain! Oh, and Monroe has an extra week to prepare for this one. |
|||||||
11-17-17 | Middle Tennessee State -3 v. Western Kentucky | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
MTSU -3 -105 2.5% PLAY I like the Blue Raiders in this spot as Western Kentucky is struggling to get that win to get to a bowl game. It's no coincidence that they are 0-3 in their last 3 by running into a couple of quality teams that can pass the ball. All year they had faced just 1 team in the top 120 in passing QB rating. They faced 120, 85, 122, 123, 127, and 129. Sure their pass defense was going to look prolific and still is ranked 12th. It then faced 46, 61, 69 and got particularly exposed in the Vanderbilt game and again they will get exposed here tonight. Middle Tennessee got Brent Stockstill back and this is his third game back so the rust is off. This is a balanced offense much more balanced than Western Kentucky. They protect and get to the QB better as well. With Stockstill they are a top 25 passing offense. Western Kentucky's pass defense is ranked 125th in sack rate. Giving Stockstill time is not a good thing as he should pick this defense apart on his way to scoring 30+. For Western Kentucky, they average less than 3 yards per carry. They go up against a defense that can certainly stop the run. Middle Tennessee also ranks 47th in opposing QB rating. Western Kentcuky will get some yards in this one, but at the end of the day they can not protect their QB. White has been sacked 32 times this year and they rank 79th in sack % on drop backs. Middle Tennessee should be able to force them into some long third downs that they won't be able to convert. Middle Tennessee lost this 100 mile rivalry game by 1 point last year and 30 the year before. They want this one and I think they have the better overall team and coaching staff. |
|||||||
11-15-17 | Toledo -17 v. Bowling Green | 66-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Toledo -17 2.2% play Toledo will bounce back here on the road against an awful Bowling Green team. Toledo gave up 38 points on the road against Ohio last week in a meaningless game for them. They win out and they return to the MAC Championship game which I believe they will. For Bowling Green they have gone 2-8 to this point and have lost big against the conference best teams, 31 to Northern Illinois, 18 to Ohio both games at home. This team has not played well at home at all. Their road games have been a completely different story. Toledo’s defense is the key here, because we know the offense will score against a Bowling Green defense that’s the worst in the MAC. I expect they will play much better. There have only been a couple of teams that scored more than 21 points on Toledo before last game, and all of them had mobile QB’s. Tulsa, Miami, Nevada, and Ohio all have mobile QB’s. Bowling Green does not have a mobile QB. Line value – we are certainly getting line value here at 17 points, because of how Toledo looked in one game against Ohio. Toledo has held conference opponents to 16 points per game before the Ohio game. Bowling Green is averaging just 23.6 on the season and I think Toledo will have a good game plan to win this one easily even without their RB Terry Swanson. Logan Woodside and Swanson’s backup should have a field day against this offense that is allowing 5.55 ypc in conference play, 5.61 at home along with a 141 QB rating. Bowling Green has faced only 1 team inside the top 60 in QB rating and that was in their last game against Buffalo. They allowed Buffalo to pass for 406 yards 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Buffalo was ranked #35. Toledo comes into this game ranked #4. Toledo should also win the turnover battle here. They have only lost it 3 times this season, and have 9 total turnovers on the season compared with Bowling Green’s 23. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Wyoming v. Air Force -3 | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
Air Force -3 2.2% Play Air Force is a short favorite based on their 21-0 loss against Army last week, and Wyoming's upset of Colorado State at home. Wyoming has been playing lights out defensively this year, but their one glaring weakness is against the run where they rank 76th in yards allowed. Wyoming's offense is just flat out atrocious and if they are not getting turnovers they are not scoring points. Josh Allen at QB who was supposed to be heading to the NFL may need another year after he ranks 104th in passing yards per game with the 126th rushing yardage offense. He's completing just 55% of his passes and his rushing offense is averaging just 2.55 ypc on the road. Air Force just ran into an Army team that knows how to defend their offense. Wyoming's defense has been better against the pass and has forced a ton of turnovers, but typically these triple option teams don't give it up. I look for Air Force a team that has gone 5-3 since 2008 when following a loss to Army or Navy. Those 3 losses came against the likes of San Diego State (2x) and TCU. Wyoming definitely not in that conversation. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | 8-41 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 24 m | Show | |
Notre Dame -3 3.3% Play I think the Irish are well prepared for this game against Miami. Notre Dame has by far faced the tougher schedule. They have the 13th ranked offense from a yards per play perspective and have faced an average defense ranking 44th. They did struggle against Georgia, but Georgia was stout against the pass and run. Miami definitely seems to have some holes as we will talk about here having given up 200 yards rushing in 3 straight games. They faced 78th, 12th, and 93rd ranked rushing offenses and gave up 200+ in each game. Notre Dame ranks #1, and I know they don't rank highly passing the ball, but Winbush is definitely a threat in the passing game. I was thoroughly impressed when he faced NC State who you could argue has a better defense than Notre Dame. Miami's defense has faced just 1 team in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they gave up 30 points. That was Toledo a team from the MAC. Overall they have faced an average opponent ranking 79th. Compare that with Notre Dame having faced an average opponent ranking 61st. Notre Dame has played well against the two top 20 offenses they have faced giving up just 20 points to Georgia, and 14 to USC who I realize was banged up in that game. Miami's offense could struggle here facing the #23rd ranked defense form a yards per play. Rozier just threw 3 interceptions against Virginia Tech who is over rated in their own right. Notre Dame's defense has faced 4 good QB's from Wake Forest, Michigan State, Georgia, and NC State. They've allowed 6 TD's and 4 interceptions. They are +12 in TO margin and have advantages in the red zone, special teams, offensive and defensive line. I like Miami, and I like Mark Richt and the job he's doing there, but I think it's a bad match-up for them, and I think Notre Dame may just be this good. It's a short price based on what Miami did to an over rated Virginia Tech team that got crushed by Clemson and crushed in the stat sheet against West Virginia. Notre Dame's resume is much more impressive. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 72 h 23 m | Show | |
Oklahoma -6.5 4.4% Play I am backing this team for a second week in a row. All this talk about Oklahoma not having a defense has given us some line value as the line has moved 1.5 points. I actually think this is a good match-up for them facing TCU whose strength is running the ball now passing the ball. Kenny Hill's confidence is really not there right now in my opinion and where Oklahoma has been vulnerable has been against the pass. Hill's last 2 games 301 total passing yards 0 TD's and 2 INT's along with a fumble in the red zone. Oklahoma's defense has allowed 3.4 yards per carry at home, and I seem to remember them defeating Ohio State on the road, another team with a good defense, great running game and questionable QB play. Offensively, Oklahoma is the best in the nation and I don't think it's close. They can run and pass the ball, and Baker Mayfield gets his team motivated like no other college football player. Now, TCU is a step up in class defensively, but I do believe TCU's defense can be scored on. When we look at TCU has only faced three top 50 offenses, 20, 3rd, and 14th. In those 3 games they gave up an average 490 yards (which would put them 124th in the nation), and 30.3 points per game (putting them 84th in the nation). Oklahoma #1 offense, and at home for this game where TCU played 2 of those 3 games at home and 2 of those 3 games they were out gained including by 102 yards against West Virginia. I get that both of these teams lost to Iowa State, but I'd point out the fact that Iowa State really came out of nowhere to beat Oklahoma, at least TCU could have a game plan against Iowa State's replacement QB Kempt. At the end of the day this team is aware that they need to win, and their defense needs to play better. I also don't see them letting up at all offensively making this 6.5 point spread seem really good. I just don't think Kenny Hill can match Baker Mayfield here, and I expect Oklahoma's run defense to show up. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Tennessee +12.5 v. Missouri | 17-50 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Tennessee +12 2.2% play |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Old Dominion +9.5 v. Florida International | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
Old Dominion +295 2% Play First of all Old Dominion's bowl hopes are still alive at 3-6 and after their 6-0 win last week according to head coach Wilders the energy in the locker room has changed. The key here is whether or not they can run and stop the run. That has been the key to victory for them this year In wins they have been allowing just 3.17 ypc with only 2 TD's. While in their losses they gave up 4.81 ypc and 21 TD's. Now Old Dominion faces an FIU team that does not run teh ball very well as they are averaging just 3.81 ypc in conference and allowing 4.78. I think Old Dominion could have some success here and pull out the victory behind the running game of Ray Lawry who had 194 yards and 3 TD's last year. The weather is also not supposed to be great 17 mph winds with moderate rain which will favor what Old Dominion wants to do in this game. FIU already has 6 wins, and won't want this game as much with Florida Atlantic on deck that game is much more important. FIU is really not a good offensive team when you take away their two 30+ point games they are only averaging 16.8 ppg. I mentioned their struggles to run the ball, their QB Alex McGough has 9TD's to 7 INT's. FIU has also covered the spread by 2+ TD's in 3 of their last 4 weeks which means you are paying a premium to play them. Old Dominion +9.5 is a good play, but I think they win this game outright as they are well coached. They don't commit a lot of penalties and they have the better special teams. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Washington State v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 33-25 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
Utah +1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD I believe Utah is floating under the radar from their 4 game losing streak earlier in the year. We backed them last week, and they really seem to find their grove in the second half. Now that their QB Tyler Huntley has been back a full 3 games and they have an extra day to prepare for this game I think they will be in good shape. Utah's offense can do some really good things and Washington State's defense has really struggled on the road of late, and against mobile QB's this year. Huntley just put up 93 yards rushing in his last game, and he's an accurate passer to go along with a weapons in the backfield in Moss, and Darren Carrington at WR who will be back for this game. Washington State typically struggles with physical teams, and they are not used to playing in this environment where Kyle Whittingham typically upsets a ranked team each and every year. In Utah's 5 losses they allowed 5.80 ypc and in their wins 2.96 ypc. Washington State does not have the ability to run and balance their offense this year it's been all in the passing game which is a bad match-up for them because Utah is ranked #24 vs. the pass. Washington State's running game is ranked 126th and is averaging just 2.3 ypc on the road. The extra day of prep will allow this Utah defense to scheme to put Washington State in some third and long situations which typically does not bode well for them. They have turned the ball over 23 times this year and I could see a few more in this game. Utah should also have the edge in special teams where they rank #17 to Washington State's 106th ranking. Add it all up and I like how Utah looks to finish the year and they also need the wins to get into a bowl game. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Michigan -16.5 v. Maryland | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 68 h 42 m | Show | |
Michigan -16.5 2.2% play Maryland could be down to their 4th string QB here, but even if they aren't they have really struggled offensively against good defenses. They are ranked 115th in passing yards, and 56th rushing. However, when they don't rush for 150 yards they have averaged only 14.5 points. They lost those 4 games by an average of 29.25 points per game. Here they face the #1 passing defense, and #7 rushing defense. I'm not sure if they will score more than 3-9 points here against this Michigan defense. Michigan's offense has a lot to be excited for with the infusion of QB Brandon Peters they have now also started to run the ball with back to back weeks of over 300 yards. Michigan has scored 30+ points 4 times this year and in everyone it was against a bad run defense. Maryland ranks 86th and fits the bill here for a bad run defense which will allow Michigan to grind their way through a low scoring, but dominating game. I look for a ton of big plays late in the game when Michigan wears this defense down. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Duke -2.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 52 m | Show | |
Duke -2.5 3.3% play Duke with an extra week to prepare always plays the option well. Army is off a huge win over Air Force 21-0 where they did not have to attempt a pass. Army really only cares about their last game of the season now when they face Navy having already accepted their bowl invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth. Duke is used to defending the triple option as they play Georgia Tech yearly. They held Army, a talented offense last year to just 6 points and 3 points in 2015. Since Jim Knowles took over as defensive coordinator, Duke is 9-3 ATS vs. Army/Navy/Georgia Tech, all three run the triple option. This year’s Duke defense is better than last year’s against the run. Only two opponents have ran for more than 4 yards per carry on Duke this year, but they find themselves coming off 5 straight losses. This is a big game for them with Georgia Tech and Wake Forest on deck they’ll need 2 wins in their last 3 games. I trust David Cutcliffe will have a great plan off the bye especially offensively where they have scored 2TD’s more than their season average off the bye. It’s worth noting that Army is ranked 115th in yards per play allowed. Duke has faced 4 top 35 defenses over their 5 game losing streak. |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Appalachian State -17.5 2.2% play I believe there is value in this line with an angry Appalachian State team heading home after two straight losses. App State got their star running back, back last game as he ran for 114 yards on 21 carries. When he’s healthy and averages over 5 yards per carry this team has scored 54, 45, and 45 points. He had 8.4 yards per carry against Georgia Southern last year, and GS is allowing 6.5 yards per carry in their road games this year. Taylor Lamb at QB has also been excellent this year with 19 TD’s and 5 INT’s. I expect them to score 40+ points in this game. Georgia Southern, 0-8 on the season and traveling on short rest having played just 5 days ago losing to instate rival Georgia State. This is App State’s biggest rivalry game and they have held Georgia Southern to 10 and 13 points the last two years. Georgia Southern has had issues in the red zone and scoring points as they have converted just 42% into TD’s while App State’s defense has been dominant holding opponents to 48% and an even better 43% against conference foes. The one match-up that looks good on paper for Georgia Southern is the running game as App State has struggled a bit compared to recent years, but Georgia Southern has no ability to pass the ball or protect their QB ranking 119th in pass protection. This running offense that has gotten worse each of the last three years is averaging just 3.84 ypc. 2015 they were averaging over 6 ypc, last year 4.44 when App State held them to just 65 yards rushing. App State’s defense should be motivated here against their rival to have a complete game. Georgia Southern has nothing to play for and their interim coach already knows he’s likely not to be the guy. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas +235 3% play TCU’s bubble got burst last week as they lost an ugly game at Iowa State 14-7 without scoring an offensive TD. TCU’s QB Kenny Hill turned the ball over twice inside Iowa State’s 10 yard line and his confidence has to be shaken. Last year he had a bad game at Kansas of all places throwing 1 TD and 3 INT’s in a 1 point victory. TCU then went 2-4 the rest of the way as he threw just 3 TD’s and had 5 INT’s over the last 6 games. TCU could certainly turn to the running game, but that goes right into the strength of this Texas defense that is allowing 3.09 ypc on the season 2.23 ypc on the road. Texas is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year, but they did not taste a victory in any of those games, but they did come close. They took USC to OT but lost by 3, they had a 4th quarter lead against Oklahoma that they lost, and then they lost by 3 against Oklahoma State where I felt Sam Ehlinger was clearly playing injured with a concussion. Ironically, Ehlinger sits out in a meaningless game against Baylor, but is probable this week. Tom Herman is 14-0 ATS and 11-3 straight up as a dog dating back to 2012 when he was an offensive coordinator with Ohio State. He’s said countless times this season that a win over a ranked team would define whether or not this season was successful. Here is the only opportunity left for the regular season and I feel like they get it here. In reality Texas has faced a tougher schedule having played USC and Oklahoma. TCU’s toughest opponents were Iowa State and Oklahoma State. I thought Texas played better in both those match-ups against those common opponents, especially defensively. Really excited to see what Sam Ehlinger has this week. He did not have a good game against Oklahoma State although we cashed that ticket and I compared him to Tim Tebow. I think the concussion like symptoms had a lot to do with it. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Iowa State v. West Virginia -3 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
West Virginia -3 -1.05 4.4% play Iowa State going on the road after 4 weeks in a row of covering the spread by 14+ points. It’s rare that you see a top 15 team going on the road facing a team that is not ranked and they are under dogs, but we have that here with Iowa State and for good reason. Iowa State is one dimensional offensively and have struggled to get the running game going all year long ranking 108th in ypc. Their offense really consists of targeting the big guys they have on the outside, but West Virginia’s secondary actually has some size and match-up well here in my opinion. West Virginia offensively I think we know they are an elite passing attack. Their three losses were against teams that were 9th, 13th, and 34th against the pass. Iowa State is 65th in passing yards allowed. All three of those teams had offenses ranked in the top 50 in yards per play. Iowa State comes in ranked #65 in yards per play offense. In 2 of those 3 games West Virginia actually outplayed their opponents. They outgained TCU by 102 yards, and they outgained Virginia Tech by 123. Iowa State is not a sexy team. They do it with bend but don’t break defense, and they do it by turning the ball over. They should have lost that game last week, but TCU turned the ball over twice inside the 10. That match-up was actually a better match-up for Iowa State than this week. The weakness of Iowa State’s defense is the passing defense and Will Grier should be able to carve them up. West Virginia has outgained Iowa State in each of the last three years by 114.3 yards per game and they have won those games by 30, 24, and 13. Iowa State is no longer sneaking up on teams, and they have clearly been adjusted. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | South Florida v. Connecticut +24 | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
Uconn +24 2.2% play / Uconn +1420 0.25% South Florida’s bubble got burst last week and I have been saying for weeks they were a vulnerable team. This is the third week in a row we are fading South Florida and why not we are 2-0 ATS in doing so. This is a team that is not nearly as good as last year offensively where they are one dimensional. South Florida’s defense has played well and carried this team, but they haven’t faced any offenses that are any good. This will actually be their toughest challenge against Uconn this week. South Florida hasn’t faced a top 50 passing offense. Uconn ranks 23rd in passing yards and 24th in passer rating. Bryan Shirreffs also takes care of the ball as he has 13 TD’s 4 INT’s he’s completing 65% of his passes and has the ability to stretch the field with 9.1 yards per attempt. South Florida has faced an average passing offense ranked 91st. They faced Houston a week ago who ranked 54th and they lost the game. Now Houston has a far superior defense compared to Uconn, but I think Uconn’s defense may surprise them a bit here. Keep in mind Uconn has faced some really good offenses this year and their last three losses were against offenses that could run and pass and ranked 12th, 13th, and 14th in the nation in yards per play. South Florida ranks 43rd and is a one man show in Quinton Flowers. I may be wrong, but I see this team coming out a little flat after losing their first game of the year in bad fashion. South Florida had the hopes of a New Year’s day Bowl and now that’s probably gone. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Florida +3 v. Missouri | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
Florida +140 3% play Missouri is a different team against non-power 5 opponents. Over the past two years they have averaged 63 points per game against non-power 5 opponents. Then they play a power 5 team and only average 20 points per game. Drew Lock, the Missouri QB playing with a ton of confidence right know but he’s going to face off against a Florida team that will be defensive minded with their defensive coach taking over in Randy Shannon. I like backing a team in situations like this we have already seen what it has done for Oregon State in back to back easy covers. UTEP, Georgia Southern also got rid of their coaches this year and covered the spread in their first week. Despite what you hear the sky is not actually falling for Florida Gators and they should be just fine. Missouri also part of my elusive list of covering the spread by 14+ points in back to back weeks. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Wisconsin v. Indiana +14 | 45-17 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
Indiana +14 3.3% play +420 1% play There is value in this line because Indiana lost at Maryland last week. Indiana actually outgained Maryland 483-345 and had 35 first downs to 18. The good news is Indiana’s defense was only on the field for 18 plays which is the key to upsetting Wisconsin this week which I do feel like they have a shot. Indiana has been close a few times this season. Even their game against Ohio State to open the year was 21-20 late in the third quarter before Ohio State took over and they did it with 2 big plays. Wisconsin is not a big play offense, and are also used to playing in tight games. Indiana might be without their QB Peyton Ramsey, but Wisconsin also could be without their best offensive player in Johnathan Taylor at RB. Indiana has a senior QB to fall back in on Richard Lagow who passed for 410 yards against Ohio State. Wisconsin plays a similar defense with the man to man and I think if Lagow is out there it will be a benefit for the offense. Indiana definitely has a guy on offense that can take the game over in Simmie Cobbs at WR. ON the flip side Wisconsin has not faced a single unit in the top 70 in passing offense. Indiana is not ranked in the top 70 either, but I think they are capable of playing better than their ranking with Lagow in their especially for the passing game. Wisconsin is going up against a very under rated run defense here. Indiana is ranked 35th in the nation, but this unit keeps them in games. They held Penn State to a season low 39 yards on the road to put it into perspective. Wisconsin is 19th running the ball, but they have faced just two top 50 running defenses. Those games they won by 9 and 8 points respectively, but both at home. This game on the road and really reminds me of Northwestern vs. Wisconsin. The difference in that game was an INT returned for a TD, and a safety. Indiana has a lot of similarities to Northwestern defensively especially and are a bit better on the offensive line from a blocking perspective. It helps that Indiana is in a bit of desperation mode here needing 3 wins in their final 4 games. Tom Allen is a very good coach and in each of the two games this year they that they lost by more than 14 points they were misleading finals. Against Ohio State we mentioned, and Penn State only outgained this team by 18 yards. Wisconsin has the added pressure of being ranked #4 in the AP poll, but out of the college football playoff picture. Just think this is a one possession game. Indiana will have a shot to pull the upset like they have against Michigan State, and Michigan. |
|||||||
11-03-17 | UCLA v. Utah -6.5 | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show | |
Utah -6.5 3.3% play Utah has to get back on track after four straight losses. They actually lost ATS by 30 and 23 points and Vegas has had to make an adjustment. Actually teams that have not covered the spread in back to back weeks by 14+ points (2TD’s) have gone 8-2 ATS that third week. This team is much better than they have played of late after nearly beating Stanford and USC they have had a tough go of it losing big ATS so let’s take a look at those two games and why we like Utah here. Against Arizona State, they finally got their QB Tyler Huntley back, but Huntley had 4 INT’s in that game 1 that went back for a TD, and Utah allowed 205 yards on the ground. Their next game at Oregon was no better as they allowed 347 yards on the ground, but Huntley showed signs throwing for 293 yards 2 TD’s and 0 INT”s which is impressive against a very good Oregon defense ranking 32nd in yards per play allowed. UCLA ranks 108th by the way. They also struggled going 1-4 on 4th down in that game. Now they come back home and the rust has been shaken off their QB and I think they are poised for a blowout and their best game. Utah is a far better coached team going up against a defense that ranks among the worst in the nation against the run allowing 6.05 yards per carry, 6.75 on the road and 23 rushing TD’s. They have lost all 4 road games by an average 16.5 points per game. On the flip side Utah’s pass defense is their strength which is a good match up against UCLA. Josh Rosen has not played well against top 50 pass defenses with only 6 TD’s and 6 INT’s in those games. UCLA has the 75th ranked rushing offense and likely will abandon it anyway very early in this game. Right now Utah seems to be weak against the run, but UCLA won’t even try to attack it. Utah needs a win at home desperately. They will likely be dogs in 2 of their next 3 games so they’ll need a big time victory and UCLA is sure to serve it up to them here on Friday night. |
|||||||
11-02-17 | Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Toledo | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Northern Illinois +8.5 5.5% POD Northern Illinois has faced 5 top 76 teams compared to Toledo’s 2. They both fared similarly against Eastern Michigan at home, and overall I would say these two teams are about even with their strengths and weaknesses. I’d say the biggest advantage in this game is Northern Illinois rushing offense against Toledo’s rushing defense which ranks 104th. Northern Illinois has been able to run the ball much better since Freshman QB Marcus Childers has taken over and he’s only getting better. Childers just had a good game passing the ball as well against Eastern Michigan who ranked #32 vs. the pass. The advantage that Toledo has in this game is certainly with their special teams that ranks 7th compared to Northern Illinois at 116. However, Carey is a good coach and I think he’ll be looking hard at that this week. Northern Illinois is not as skilled on offense as Toledo who can run and pass the ball, but their defense and rushing offense should control this game. Northern Illinois defense ranks #6 vs. the run and they have faced an average opponent ranking 87th. However, against Boston College, Nebraska and San Diego State they only allowed 293 yards and 2.23 ypc. They actually played up to their competition and I expect them to step up against Toledo. Now there is no question neither one of those teams has a Logan Woodside at QB – 19TD/2INT’s on the season so let’s look at that. Woodside has actually gotten the majority of those stats against defenses ranking 127, 126, 77th, 119 – 16 TD/ 2INT. Against passing defenses in the same caliber as Northern Illinois (13, 32, 15), Northern Illinois ranks #22. He completing 60.7% of his passes 240 yards per game, 3 total TD’s 0 INT’s. Northern Illinois can actually get to the QB much like Miami as they rank 19th in the country in sack %. I expect Woodside to put up a lot of yards like he has against quality defenses, but struggle in the red zone. It’s worth noting he just lost his top target Cody Thompson in the last game for the season and this offense has only scored TD’s 50% of the time in the red zone. Northern Illinois defense is allowing only 33% TD percentage in the red zone. Compare it with Northern Illinois 58% on offense, and Toledo’s alarming 80.95% TD’s allowed in the red zone. Northern Illinois is also top 25 in big plays allowed. The only reason Toledo is favored here is because their only loss is against Miami, but they were blown out in that game. Miami has played a lot of close games this year so that loss is a little more alarming. Northern Illinois dominated their game on the road against San Diego State doubling them in yardage, but lost the game. They lost by 3 to open the season against Boston College and are a play or two away from being undefeated and if that were the case we would have a +3 spread here. Bottom line I think the coaching advantage is on Northern Illinois side. Candle has done a great job with Toledo, but it’s been against a weak schedule. Northern Illinois has actually dominated this match-up. They lost by 7 last year in a down year, but had won 6 straight previously. This will be a close game and come down to the wire with Northern Illinois having a chance to pull the outright upset! The weather also favors Northern Illinois as it’s supposed to have a chance of rain and 10-15mph winds. Northern Illinois has the more mobile QB, and the better defense here getting 8.5 points is a bargain when you consider bad weather wind+rain will lead to lower scores. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -14 | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 45 h 30 m | Show | |
Clemson -14 2.2% play Clemson holds some value this week off a bye and Georgia Tech off a misleading 14 point win over Wake Forest, and another misleading loss to Miami who outgained Georgia Tech by 200 yards. This is the second week in a row that Georgia Tech will face a team off a bye, but this team on the road. Clemson has held Georgia Tech’s triple option to less than 100 yards each of the last two years while beating them by 19 points in each match-up. We are quickly learning that Syracuse is a good team as they took Miami to the wire they also gave LSU and NC State issues. Clemson lost at Syracuse and now has to feel pretty disrespected now #7 in the polls. With Kelly Bryant listed as probable and this line moving in our favor to a key number of 14 it’s worth a play here as Clemson gets back into the college football playoff discussion with a big win. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Houston +11 v. South Florida | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 32 m | Show | |
Houston +11 3.3% play Houston has extra time to prepare for this game as they played last Thursday night. They will be the best defense that South Florida has faced and it’s not even close. Yes Houston ranks 58th in yards per play but they faced 4 top 30 offenses and held them all to season lows before Texas Tech only scored 13 a week ago. They held Memphis in check for the first half and blew a 2nd half 17 point lead proving though that they can contend with any team in this conference. They have played a far tougher schedule and their win over Arizona earlier this year looks even better right now. South Florida scored 33, and 34 the last two weeks against 97th ranked defense and 119th ranked defense. I realize Tulane got a back door cover, but Tulane really missed on so many opportunities early in that game moving the ball for 405 yards and 6.29 yards per play. Also proving that the South Florida defense is vulnerable. South Florida’s defense has not faced anyone that can move the ball yet and while Houston is no juggernaut they can stay within this 11 points. As the season progresses the pressure is going to continue to weigh on South Florida and this is just one of those games where I’m taking the better defense. South Florida’s offensive line is ranked 104th in adjusted rank and now they go up against Ed Oliver who can single handily win this game for Houston who ranks 32nd on the defensive line. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | NC State +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 15 m | Show | |
NC State +7 3.3% play Both teams come in with 1 loss to SEC team. NC State lost despite doubling South Carolina in yardage while Notre Dame found a way to lose despite being +2 in TO Margin. To me both teams are pretty even with Notre Dame’s strength being their offensive line, and NC State’s strength being their defensive line. However, there is line value on the road team here with NC State off a bye along with Notre Dame’s fat and happy win over USC last week where everyone saw the game. Notre Dame relies heavily on running the ball and are averaging 317 yards per game 7.1 yards per carry. Winbush really hasn’t been a threat to throw the ball 116 QB rating 51.7% completion rate just 6 yards per attempt. That’s really NC State’s weakness here as they are ranked 14th in defending the run. Notre Dame has really inflated offensive numbers running the ball. Against Michigan State and Georgia they have just 200 yards rushing. They have really dominated the weaker opponents having faced rushing defenses ranked 101, 112, 80, 90, and 85th. Against tougher competition it’s been proven you can stop this rushing offense. NC State’s rushing defense hasn’t faced many good rushing offenses either outside of Louisville who is ranked #7 with a mobile QB in Lamar Jackson. They held Louisville to 116 yards rushing and I would say Jackson is a better passer than Winbush. I think there is more proof that NC State can stop the run than there is Notre Dame can run against really good defenses. Now Notre Dame also good at stopping the run ranking 25th, but again they have faced poor running offenses and last week they faced a banged up USC offense. This week NC State’s offense is not spectacular and rank 61st running the ball, but Ryan Finley their QB hasn’t turned the ball over. They faced running defenses ranked 29, 17, 44, 52, 50, and 99. Both defenses have been excellent in the red zone and turnover margin. I feel like strength of schedule is about even as well. AT the end of the day I think there is just too much line value. NC State has only turned the ball over 3 times all year. Michigan State is getting a lot of credit right now while NC State is off a bye and it weren’t for NC State’s poor special teams play where they rank 121st I’d be playing this as my POD. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | TCU -6 v. Iowa State | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -118 | 40 h 15 m | Show |
TCU -6.5 4.4% NCAAF POD I liked the Horned Frogs here who are probably an unpopular favorite this week. Iowa State has covered 3 straight weeks by 14+ points against the spread and are now ranked #25, but they are stepping up in class this week against TCU. TCU’s attention is on Iowa State who they know are a threat to their college football playoff spot. This team is well focused for this game and I think should hold Iowa State’s offense in check. Kyle Kempt the walk on QB for Iowa State has completed 70% of his passes 7TD’s and 1 INT, but has gone against the 97th, 129th, and 87th ranked pass defenses. Here he will face TCU who ranks #32 overall, but are also dominant vs. the run and are holding opponents to 47.6% completion percentage. That’s key here as Iowa State has been unable to run the ball consistently. TCU should have a good defensive game plan here. TCU has been very good on the road and I have to admit that Kenny Hill has been impressive in a balanced offense. Iowa State has also benefited from facing teams with poor special teams rankings. Oklahoma 123rd, Texas Tech 91st, and Kansas 110th. This week they face TCU who is ranked #2 in special teams. They also face off in a game where they don’t have the coaching edge. I really like Matt Campbell, but Gary Patterson is simply one of the best. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +3 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 37 h 3 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +3 2.2% Play Wake Forest had a 21-13 lead over Georgia Tech last week and ended up losing 38-24 in misleading fashion. I think they have an excellent shot at upsetting Louisville who is just off a big road victory at Florida State. They were lucky to be in that spot as Florida State fumbled with under 2 play while heading into the red zone. That gives us line value here. Wake Forest is definitely better on offense this year and Louisville’s defense is definitely worse. Wake is still strong on defense ranking 21st in yards per play allowed and are well coached under Dave Clawson. They have just 4 TO’s on the year they play good fundamental defense and limit their mistakes with penalties. In last year’s game they held a 12-3 lead at half time and a 12-10 lead in the 4th quarter before Lamar Jackson took over scoring the final 34 points in the 4th quarter to win 44-12. Earlier in the year they hosted Florida State had a late lead and were tied 19-19 in the 4th quarter before giving up a TD with less than 1 to play to lose by 7. They actually outgained Florida State by 100 yards in that game. I would have this as a premium play and maybe even calling for the upset if I felt confident Wake could close games out. Nonetheless it’s still a play I like here! |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Texas v. Baylor +9 | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 23 m | Show | |
Baylor +9 3.3% play This is exactly the type of game that Tom Herman would drop before facing another opponent in TCU on deck. Baylor has been close against Oklahoma and West Virginia two ranked opponents. Texas is giving Sam Ehlinger a week off and going with Shane Buechele, the starter from last year. I think Buechele’s confidence probably hurting here and Texas main goal is to defeat a team in contention. That’s what they would call a successful season. Right now I see Herman and this team in a major let down spot in an interesting sandwich game before their game against TCU. Baylor’s head coach Matt Rhule’s team is slowly getting better with each week. Holding West Virginia to 38 and scoring 36 was impressive. Only TCU and Virginia Tech’s defense held West Virginia to fewer points and yards. Baylor’s offense actually outgained West Virginia in the game and they get Texas this week who is not nearly as explosive. I would not be shocked to see Baylor pull the upset here as they are at home in an early game and looking for their first win. |
|||||||
10-27-17 | Florida State -3.5 v. Boston College | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 54 m | Show | |
Florida State -3 -1.20 as a 3.3% play. Boston College was on our sell high list for this week’s podcast BC has covered the spread by more than 14 points in back to back week’s and have been impressive in doing so against the likes of Louisville and Virginia. Boston College got their running game going rushing for 237 and 364 and that was the difference. Against Florida State they are going to have a tough time running the ball in my opinion. Florida State ranks similar to BC’s recent opponents against the run ranking 44th form a rushing yards per carry perspective. Louisville ranks 50th, and Virginia ranks 56th. From that perspective you would assume BC would be able to run the ball here, but I actually think they can’t. Florida State’s defense is really under rated and have played a tough schedule. I think they are a top 20 defense, and facing a one dimensional attack they should be able to shut this offense down. When looking at Boston College’s recent opponent run defenses we find out that Virginia played an average opponent ranking 92nd in rushing offense. When looking at Louisville they have played an average opponent rank of 72nd in rushing offense. Florida State has faced three top 30 rushing offenses with an overall 44th ranking. So I think Florida State’s defense can dominate in this game. Offensively is where Florida State has struggled and we have to bring it up. Florida State however is finally playing a poor defense. Boston College ranking 112th vs. the run. Obviously Florida State with an inexperienced QB in James Blackman who cost them their last game against Louisvile in the final minute needs to run the ball. Watch out for freshman Cam Akers in this one who will be getting the bulk of the carries. Florida State has faced very good run defenses so far ranking 1, 14, 41, 58, 55, 50. The 58th ranked run defense was Miami who is better than that ranking. Motivation is the last thing we want to look at. No doubts Florida State had higher hopes this year. They came in ranked #2 in the country, but the hurricane really threw their season off along with the injury to their QB Francois. They are playing a lot of young players now on offense, and it is pivotal that they get to a bowl game and get extra practice. Jimbo Fisher is a good coach and I think this is just the week it happens where they get a big win. I’m not concerned with the short week and travel they just have a big talent edge. Fisher typically will concentrate on running the ball more on the road which is what this team should have been doing all along. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Michigan +9.5 v. Penn State | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 12 m | Show |
Michigan +9.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Michigan is getting a lot of points in this one in my opinion and Harbough has only lost 7 games since he’s been at Michigan and they have been all close besides a loss to Ohio State, a team that went onto win the National Championship. Otherwise his losses have been by 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 7. Michigan can shut down Barkley in this game as they are the #5 run defense. We saw Indiana shut down Barkley recently holding this offense to 39 rushing yards. The same Indiana defense that just gave up 271 to Michigan. Actually, I think Michigan might have found confidence and a running game in that game a week ago with Kavan Higdon 25 rushes for 200 yards. That was against Indiana with the #22 defensive line, #48 in power success defense. Now Michigan although going on the road could have some success running the ball as they face Penn State who ranks 37th in defensive line, but an alarming 104th in power success defense. Look at the offenses Penn State has faced from a rushing ypc perspective – 116, 118, 108, 98, 103, and 100. They gave up 150+ yards 3 times. Nobody likes to run the power run game more than Harbough and that will allow him to keep this game close in my opinion. Penn State has also only faced one defense ranked in the top 50 in passing defense and that was Iowa. They nearly lost on the road against Iowa it took a beautiful, if not lucky pass by McSorley on the road to pull the 21-19 victory over Iowa. Iowa actually not one of those teams that Penn State faced with a good run defense. I’ve heard many say that if you like Michigan parlay it with the under, but this total is very low. I expect Michigan to have success on offense in their power running game while Penn State should have success in the passing game. McSorley is very under rated, and has good receivers and a TE target that Michigan has not seen yet. When it’s all said and done I feel it comes down to a field goal and Penn State will pull it off, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the other way. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | South Florida v. Tulane +12 | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 46 m | Show | |
Tulane +11.5 3.3% & ML +370 0.5% South Florida has to be peaking ahead to Houston at home next week and that’s a dangerous proposition when you are facing an option team on the road. South Florida has played the easiest schedule and their defense that is looking like a top 25 unit is not! South Florida has only faced one offense ranked in the top 100 in yards per play. Yet they are still allowing 17.2 points per game. Tulane is ranked 65th, and has a unique offense that has put up points this year. Let’s not forget the 62 they hung on Tulsa the week before last. I feel like we are getting excellent value with Tulane here off the loss as a double digit favorite. Meanwhile, South Florida beat Cinci 33-3, but Cinci turned the ball over twice in the red zone, and threw a pick six to end the half on an untimed play otherwise our pick of Cinci +24 last week would have been a winner. Remember, South Florida’s run defense last year was not very good allowing 4.48 yards per carry and their match up with Navy, a triple option they gave up 317 at home. The only game Tulane did not rush for 200 yards was against Navy where they had 191 and they nearly won that game. I see Tulane bouncing back and even having a shot to pull the upset here as South Florida looks ahead to Houston. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Oregon +6.5 v. UCLA | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
Oregon +220 2.5% DOG OF THE WEEK I have this game as a pk, but recent perception on Oregon who just had to go against two tough defenses with a new QB had them in two blowouts. Oregon’s offense right now needs to run the ball as Braxton Burmeister can not throw. Luckily UCLA is ranked 129th in rushing yards per carry allowed, and Oregon should be able to run the ball in this game. On the flip side UCLA has Washington next, but before they get to that game they face off against Oregon who has the best defense they have faced all year. Yes, you read that right as Oregon ranks 27th in yards per play allowed. The next closest opponent UCLA faced was 47th. Oregon should be able to create a bit of havoc here as they rank 20th in sack rate, and Josh Rosen is playing behind an offensive line that is ranked 106th in adjusted line yards. Not to mention UCLA also has a one dimensional offense. I’ll lean towards the coaching advantage on Oregon’s sideline on this one as Jim Leavitt is one of the best defensive minded coaches around and has shown great improvement in this defense in just one year. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Pittsburgh +8 v. Duke | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 11 m | Show | |
Pitt +8 2.2% PLAY I think there is some decent value here with Pitt this week who is in desperation mode having only won 2 games they need a win here in order to get on a run to get to a bowl. Their problem so far has been a tough schedule. Pitt’s offense ranks 98th, and they lost their QB Max Browne, but I don’t see that as a big loss, and they have faced several tough defenses on the year including 4 top 50 defenses with an overall opponent rank of average at 47.33. Compare that with Duke whose offense is ranked 115th in yards per play having faced 50th average opponent. I think both offenses are about even at this point. Now Pitt’s defense has been really disappointing ranking 122nd, but they have faced 4 top 32 programs while Duke who has a 42nd ranked defense has only faced 1 opponent in the top 80 in offense. The non-conference schedule is really the difference where Duke faced Northwestern and Baylor and Pitt played Penn State and Oklahoma State, two top 10 teams. Pitt finally faces a one dimensional offense and it’s actually the worst offense they have faced all year. Pitt wins this game if they can stop the run. Duke’s QB Daniel Jones has not played well throwing the ball with just 6TD’s and 5 INT’s while connecting on just 55.6% of his throws and 5.4 yds/attempt. Pitt’s offense won’t blow us away in this game, but they faced a Syracuse team on the road and only lost by 3. The same margin that Clemson lost by a week ago. I like the fact that Pitt has a great advantage in the red zone allowing just 56% TD’s while Duke struggles at 44% on offense. Duke also 63.64% TD percentage allowed while Pitt when they get into the red zone score a TD 68% of the time. Pitt also has the advantage on special teams ranking 22nd overall compared to 80th for Duke. Pitt also the least penalized team in this match up with just 3.4 per game compared to 5.3 for Duke. Pitt has struggled on the offensive line allowing 19 sacks, but Duke has also allowed 19. Both teams are + in TO margin. Overall I have a 3 point advantage on the spread I feel the tougher schedule and desperation on the Pitt side offers good value and I’m not concerned about the QB situation for Pitt. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 38 h 40 m | Show | |
Texas +7 –105 2.5% Play Surprisingly this hasn’t been a hangover spot for Texas following the Red River Rivalry. They have gone 18-1 SU and 14-4 ATS following their match-up with Oklahoma. Texas nearly won last week and it looks like they found a QB for the future in Sam Ehlinger who was impressive in that game really took it over and is tough as nails. Really reminds me of Tim Tebow. Now Tom Herman facing another ranked team and is a dog. This is the third time this year previously at USC and Oklahoma both games they had 4th quarter leads. Herman is 13-0 ATS as a dog since 2012 when he was an OC at Ohio State and he has 11 outright upsets. Now, I do see Oklahoma State being able to throw the ball in this one which is a reason why this is not a higher ranked play. However, I think Texas can keep Oklahoma State off the field with the play of Ehlinger and the running game. Oklahoma State has given up 200+ yards rushing three times this year. Oklahoma State to me has played a far weaker schedule when you look at it and Texas probably more prepared for this offense than any. Texas defense has already seen 2 NFL QB’s this year in Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. I think they will be able to force Mason Rudolph into a couple of mistakes that give them a chance to win. Texas has also faced a much tougher schedule. Even their loss against Maryland was when Maryland was healthy. They played Iowa State on the road better than any other team this year in the 17-7 win. Texas has gotten close to beating those teams as dogs this year, but both of those games were not in their own building. Here they will be able to finally possibly put a game away in the 4th quarter with that defense. |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +8.5 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Old Dominion +8 3.3% play / ODU +260 1% play Coaching mismatch here with Bobby Wilder over MIke Sandford who has to take his Western Kentucky on the road on a short week. That's not easy when you don't have a lot of experience. Western Kentucky won last week 45-14, but they beat arguably the worst team in college football in Charlotte. Charlotte's defensive line is ranked #130, and #129 in adjusted sack rate, and finally this Western Kentucky offensive line that ranks 130th had time to throw and the results were great. However, this week they go on the road to face Old Dominion who actually is ranked 10th in adjusted sack rate, and 2nd in sack rate on passing downs. This is really a bad match up for Western Kentucky and they have proven nothing to deserve to be more than a TD favorite on the road. Old Dominion also getting healthier with Ray Lawry at RB coming back last week. Western Kentucky's offense is a shell of what it was last year. They have struggled despite playing defenses ranked 114th, 93rd, 70th, 80th and 72nd. I expect Old Dominion, a well coached team to be in this one until the end. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -3 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
Houston -3 4.4% NCAAF POD Memphis ranked #25 and is a dog here this week. We have seen this before as Memphis will likely get much of the money leading up to kickoff. However, looking at the adjusted statistic ratings as well as the efficiency ratings combined has Houston as the #26 team, and Memphis as #57.. Yet the Oddsmakers are calling this a pk on a neutral field? Houston also has the benefit in this game of being at home having just played on Saturday while Memphis was in a tough match-up against Navy and pulled the upset. 1, it's not easy traveling on short rest in college football, 2, it's not easy playing the next week after the triple option, 3, it's not easy after getting a huge win like that game against Navy as Memphis is in a major letdown spot even though they are playing this game with a chance to get to the AAC Title game. Houston wants revenge for losing last year in this one and the only reason they are short favorites is the perception of the offenses. Memphis has a dynamic offense, but they have ran it up against bad defenses. Their adjusted efficiency offense is actually ranked #74, and they are stronger passing the ball. Their QB Riley Fergusson is not 100% and he goes up against Houston's defense that has already played 3 top 50 passing offenses and held Texas Tech & Arizona to season lows in points. They actually rank 14th in opposing QB rating and it's just not a good match-up for Memphis. Also worth noting that when Houston lost last year it was on the road and it came after an upset of Louisville who was ranked in the top 5 at the time. For Houston the key match up is going up against this Memphis defense which is actually better than the stats suggest. I'm not lost in that as they rank 34th in adjusted defense. However, their weakness comes against the run where they rank 93rd overall in rushing yards per carry. They rank 113th in power success rate defense. Houston should be able to play to their strengths which is a big key for them winning a game. Houston averages 4.93 ypc in their wins, and 3.28 ypc in their losses this year. last year they were also +1.24 ypc in their wins and the year before +1.69. It's no secret what their key to victory is and it seems like they should have enough success on Thursday night at home. Memphis has allowed 6.23 ypc in their two road games and they have allowed everyone to rush for more than 4.62 ypc with the exception of LA Monroe, and FCS foe Southern Illinois. Line value? We talk about this along with perception on our podcast and we certainly have it here with Houston losing to Tulsa 45-17 last week after Tulsa had lost 3 in a row. Houston was only out gained in that game by 12 yards, but turned the ball over far too many times. Tulsa was also desperate for a win after facing 3 option teams in a row. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +24.5 | 56-14 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 25 m | Show | |
Nebraska +24.5 3.3% Play Ohio State is not 12 points better than Wisconsin. Wisconsin was a 12.5 point favorite here a week ago although they did cover it this is a very inflated line based on recent bias as Ohio State has been on fire covering spreads. Ohio State has faced defenses ranked 88, 100, 108, 119 the last 4 weeks and the offense is clicking, but with their bye approaching next week before Penn State I’m not so sure they get a lead and get conservative in this game. Ohio State has been dominating of late by so much people forget how average they were in their first two games against good defenses. Nebraska has a good defense still especially at home under the lights. Nebraska has to feel like they owe their fans something here. They were blown out 62-3 last year against Ohio State and that probably has a lot to do with this line here, but they lost their QB early in that game and you could see the team give up. This is the biggest underdog role Nebraska has been at home in over 40 years. Before last week’s loss to Wisconsin, Nebraska had won 20 straight games under the lights at home and I think they can be competitive here. Ohio State’s offense is not nearly what it’s been of late. Remember the talks of JT. Barret being benched? Oh what facing 4 poor defenses will do. Nebraska is actually by far the best pass defense Ohio State has faced all year. Urban Meyer is no dummy he will keep the ball on the ground and use the recipe that Wisconsin did a week ago. Nebraska’s offense I think could do a little damage here. Ohio State’s weakness is in the secondary although you wouldn’t know it since they have not faced a team with a passing game since the Oklahoma game. Tanner Lee just came up with 271 yards and they are not afraid to chuck it down the field. I’d make this a higher rated play if I felt like Lee could be better with turning the ball over. I would even call for a possible upset if I knew Lee would take care of the ball, but that’s not the case. I expect a similar game to the Wisconsin game a week ago with Ohio State playing more conservative than they have in recent games as they go into their bye. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas +9 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 23 m | Show | |
Texas +9 3.3% Play The Red River Rivalry is a must win game for Oklahoma after they lost last week as 30+ point favorites. Under Bob Stoops they were 28-0 after a loss, but Lincoln Riley after going up to Ohio State and defeating them as a TD dog has struggled in back to back games now. Baylor hung in their game against Oklahoma and torched that pass defense, and then after Oklahoma had a bye they gave up another big day in the air to Iowa State who started their back up who had only attempted 2 passes and was a walk on as Oklahoma went down. Now many are going to rush to back Oklahoma, but I would say hold your horses.. No pun intended. Tom Herman vs. a ranked opponent and as a dog has been outstanding. Dating back to 2012 where he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State he’s been a dog 11 times and has gone 11-0 ATS winning outright 10 times. The only loss this year at USC by 3 points in OT as a 17 point underdog. Herman, beat this Oklahoma team last year with Houston as a double digit dog and he had his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him. Orlando is already improving this defense in a short period of time. They went on the road on a short week and held Iowa State to 256 yards, 4 yards per play on a Thursday night and just 7 points. The same Iowa State team that just put up 38 points at Oklahoma with 449 yards and 7.61 yards per play. No doubt about it here Oklahoma has the better defense, but it will be interesting to see as these teams are very familiar with each other in this rivalry. Todd Herman and his staff also familiar with Oklahoma from last year. I expect Oklahoma to struggle a bit here, and I expect Texas offense to start to catch up with the defense now that they have made the switch to Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger made a start at USC and threw for 298 yards against the #20 defense. He made the start last week against #29 ranked passing defense Kansas State and he had 380 yards passing and added 107 yards. Ehlinger made a couple of rookie mistakes vs. USC that cost them that win, but he’s definitely the better fit for this offense as he’s also mobile. He is now going up against Oklahoma ranked #89 vs. the pass and I expect Texas to score to put themselves in position to win. At the end of the day we still don’t know what Lincoln Riley is as a coach. The Ohio State win was impressive, but the last two weeks have not been. Especially when you consider you had a bye before Iowa State. Many times Herman has been a double digit dog and has pulled the outright upset. Texas has been close in previous years with far worse coaching wouldn’t be shocked to see it here. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Buffalo | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 8 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois -5.5 3.3% play I almost took Northern Illinois a week ago against Kent State, but the weather held me back as they were a big favorite. They nearly covered anyway, but the under was my play and it was an easy winner. Northern Illinois defense was on the field for just 60 plays compared to Buffalo’s defense for 99 plays in their 7 OT loss to Western Michigan. Teams playing the week after an OT game never a great play and we will be fading that with a team we have liked in back to back weeks. Northern Illinois thoroughly out played San Diego State #19 on the road, but turned the ball over countless times. This week they travel on the road again, but they are playing a very bad defense in Buffalo. Northern Illinois has shuffled QB’s and this week they have all 3 healthy. I expect to see a mix as last week they went to Childers in the rain to help the running game since he is more athletic. That is a sign of a good head coach that is not worried about hurting his player’s feelings by putting his guys in the best spot to win. Northern Illinois who is very much a run first team will go up against Buffalo who is ranked #118 in yards allowed on the ground and #86 in yards per carry. Western Michigan just wore them out last week allowing 376 yards on the ground. Northern Illinois should move the ball just fine here. After all this is a team that has played some tough defenses already and they had 429 yards on the road at San Diego State a top 30 defense in the country. Buffalo offensively looks like a beast after last weeks 68 points, but they scored just 31 in regulation and did not score in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Very inconsistent and Western Michigan is not very good on defense so far this year ranking #99. Buffalo has only played 1 team in the top 88 in yards per play allowed and they put up 7 points in that game against Minnesota ranked #27. Northern Illinois comes into this game ranked #3, and they are just as strong vs. the pass allowing 51% completions, 4.9 yards per attempt, they are top 10 in opposing QB rating, and 20th in sack rate. They have allowed just 4 TD’s and 9 interceptions and have been great in the red zone. Buffalo’s Drew Anderson just went against #90, and #93 passing defenses this and he struggled vs. #93. He came alive against a tired Western Michigan defense, but I don’t expect much for a backup QB against a top ranked defense that has dominated this series going 9-0 beating Buffalo by an average of 29 points. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Vanderbilt +3.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-57 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
Vanderbilt +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Vanderbilt just had a brutal stretch of games facing Alabama, Florida and Georgia and they were outrushed in those games 1,137 to 150. We know Vanderbilt is not as good on defense this year, but they have been better offensively. Getting beat up in the trenches the last three weeks they have actually stayed healthy. Now they face a team in Ole Miss who is averaging 2.88 yards per carry and has just 380 yards on the season eclipsing 100 just one time with 102 in game 1. Ole Miss defense has been awful against the run allowing 5.57 yards per carry and 160+ in each game including their game against FCS foe Tenn-Martin. Vanderbilt is desperate for a win here if they want to go bowling. Ole Miss really has nothing to play for with their self-bowl ban. They actually just played Alabama and Auburn, two top 10 teams, and now they face Vanderbilt at 3:30. Not that exciting if you ask me, but this is a game Vanderbilt won last year 38-17 at home as a 10 point dog. In that game they ran for 208 yards and 3 TD’s and I expect them to finally get back to running the football here after facing three top 25 run defenses and Florida on the road they’ll get to face Ole Miss ranking #122. With a working running game Kyle Schurmur who has been very good this year with 12 TD’s 1 INT should be even better as Vanderbilt cruises in this game. Ole Miss does have a flashy QB in Shea Patterson, but he’s thrown 6 interceptions in 5 games and Vanderbilt’s defense is far better vs. the pass than the run which is Ole Miss strength. Vanderbilt’s pass defense has only allowed 5 TD’s and 5 INT’s, and they are top 40 in nearly every passing defense stat. I just think this is a better matchup for Vanderbilt who comes into this game healthier than they probably thought they would be after a stretch of 3 brutal games. Now they face a team that if they come out strong should give up and allow Vanderbilt to cruise to an easy victory. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -3.5 | 35-46 | Win | 100 | 37 h 49 m | Show | |
West Virginia -3 -120 (-3.5 -105 everywhere) 4% play It’s not often you see an unranked team favored against a ranked team, but here we are. These two teams have a lot in common, but West Virginia has had the tougher schedule. Their two toughest games have been on the road and they lost both games by only 7 points having out played both opponents. Last week against TCU they held a +12 first down edge, and were +102 yards, but turned the ball over 2x and this was on the road. This was the same TCU team that went on the road and defeated Oklahoma State. Texas Tech faced Oklahoma State at home and they too only lost by 7 points, but they should have lost by 3 TD’s as they were outgained by 213 yards and allowed Oklahoma State’s offense in their territory in 10 of 12 drives. West Virginia has a very balanced offense as they are top 25 in running and passing and should have the same success. West Virginia’s offense went on the road to start the season and out played a good Virginia Tech team as they were +123 yards in the 7 point loss. They put up records on a Bud Foster defense. Now they finally get a home game against a good opponent and I think they can win this game by double digits. Statistically speaking these two are about the same and Texas Tech may even have the edges in several categories, but since West Virginia has played the tougher schedule and their two toughest games have been on the road I expect the defense which appears to be the weakness to have their best game against Texas Tech who is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Texas Tech has also been extremely fortunate this year at +9 TO margin. West Virginia takes care of the ball as well and they have been better in the red zone with a +21% advantage as far as TD% goes. We mentioned Texas Tech’s struggles allowing opponents to drive into their territory. While Texas Tech is -1%. Slight edge to West Virginia in the return game in special teams while neither team’s kicker is very good that gives an edge to West Virginia who is at home and has the better red zone defense. I also love the fact that West Virginia is penalized less. The only thing not making this a bigger play is the fact that West Virginia is off a tough loss and haven’t been able to win their close games. However, I think this won’t be close and expect a big win by the Mountaineers. This is a long way for Tech to travel. |
|||||||
10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +15 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show | |
California +15 3.3% Play It’s hard to come back and fade Washington State a third week in a row especially after I had Oregon as a POD against them, but I feel like I learned a lot watching that game. Now, Washington State is on their second road game in a row and they have now cracked the top 10. They will face another solid defense that is under rated. Oregon was very good on defense a week ago, but their offense just left them on the field too long. When I look at this match-up the key is going to be whether or not Cal can avoid Washington State getting off to a fast start. The two games Cal really were taken out of the game and not involved in a close game was against Washington and Oregon, two programs that start fast. When you look at Cal and the second half adjustments they make on defense you have to be impressed. Cal, held UNC to 13 points in the second half week 1, Ole Miss to 0 points, USC to 17 points (all in the 4th quarter), and then they held Washington to 14 points a week ago in the 2nd half. When you look at Washington State they are not the same offense as a year ago ranking 55th 5.6 yards per play. They get off to slow starts in most of their games. It was 13-10 last week at Oregon, and they trailed 10-7 after the first quarter. It was 17-17 vs. USC, but they trailed 7-3 after the first quarter. Vs. Boise it was 10-10 at the half and they actually trailed in the 4th quarter 31-10. Against Oregon State they were only up 7-2 after the first quarter. This is important so Cal’s offense doesn’t just abandon the running game like they did a week ago against Washington. Their offensive line is not the best and they struggled in that game on the road in a tough environment. I don’t see that happening here back at home where they will have their fans behind them. Remember Washington State last year averaged nearly a yard less on the road per play than at home. The sample size is not that large this year, but that offense certainly struggled last week against Oregon and I could see them having issues again this week against a Cal defense that just doesn’t give up even late in games when they are losing big. Cal’s defense has improved so far by more than 1.5 yards per play at this point in the season compared to last year and they are ranked 38th allowing 5.1 yards per play. That’s impressive given how they have struggled on offense and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field. This Cal defense held the best PAC12 teams in the conference well under their season averages. They held Washington 40 yards below their season average and 1.6 yards per play below their season average. They held USC 1.63 yards below their season average and 111.8 total yards below their season average. They were in a dog fight against USC, but happened to turn the ball over 6 times. They also caught USC the week before Washington State did and it was a much healthier USC team at the time. Let’s look at Cal vs. USC at home as they were +70 yards, they got into USC territory 6 out of 14 times, and they allowed USC to get into their territory 8 out of 14 times mostly due to the 6 turnovers they had. Washington State who was playing their 5th home game in a row got USC in their second road game in a row, but also traveling on short rest since it was a Friday game. A major advantage. IN that game we saw similar advantages although Washington State was +150 yards, and held USC to 5-14 and were +1 in TO margin. It was a much more banged up USC squad. At the end of the day this is a buy low sell high situation. I like the way California has played most of the year, but they are coming off rough back to back performances that make you think they are due to be blown out here again. Washington State comes in high off two huge wins and are now ranked #10, but I remind you they faced two teams that just had too many injuries to overcome. I underestimated Oregon’s loss at QB as some experts say it was worth north of a TD after watching that game I tend to agree. Cal’s defense will play well just like Oregon did, but they’ll put together some scoring drives and this game will be closer throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked if Cal got a chance to win it in the end.California +15 3.3% Play It’s hard to come back and fade Washington State a third week in a row especially after I had Oregon as a POD against them, but I feel like I learned a lot watching that game. Now, Washington State is on their second road game in a row and they have now cracked the top 10. They will face another solid defense that is under rated. Oregon was very good on defense a week ago, but their offense just left them on the field too long. When I look at this match-up the key is going to be whether or not Cal can avoid Washington State getting off to a fast start. The two games Cal really were taken out of the game and not involved in a close game was against Washington and Oregon, two programs that start fast. When you look at Cal and the second half adjustments they make on defense you have to be impressed. Cal, held UNC to 13 points in the second half week 1, Ole Miss to 0 points, USC to 17 points (all in the 4th quarter), and then they held Washington to 14 points a week ago in the 2nd half. When you look at Washington State they are not the same offense as a year ago ranking 55th 5.6 yards per play. They get off to slow starts in most of their games. It was 13-10 last week at Oregon, and they trailed 10-7 after the first quarter. It was 17-17 vs. USC, but they trailed 7-3 after the first quarter. Vs. Boise it was 10-10 at the half and they actually trailed in the 4th quarter 31-10. Against Oregon State they were only up 7-2 after the first quarter. This is important so Cal’s offense doesn’t just abandon the running game like they did a week ago against Washington. Their offensive line is not the best and they struggled in that game on the road in a tough environment. I don’t see that happening here back at home where they will have their fans behind them. Remember Washington State last year averaged nearly a yard less on the road per play than at home. The sample size is not that large this year, but that offense certainly struggled last week against Oregon and I could see them having issues again this week against a Cal defense that just doesn’t give up even late in games when they are losing big. Cal’s defense has improved so far by more than 1.5 yards per play at this point in the season compared to last year and they are ranked 38th allowing 5.1 yards per play. That’s impressive given how they have struggled on offense and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field. This Cal defense held the best PAC12 teams in the conference well under their season averages. They held Washington 40 yards below their season average and 1.6 yards per play below their season average. They held USC 1.63 yards below their season average and 111.8 total yards below their season average. They were in a dog fight against USC, but happened to turn the ball over 6 times. They also caught USC the week before Washington State did and it was a much healthier USC team at the time. Let’s look at Cal vs. USC at home as they were +70 yards, they got into USC territory 6 out of 14 times, and they allowed USC to get into their territory 8 out of 14 times mostly due to the 6 turnovers they had. Washington State who was playing their 5th home game in a row got USC in their second road game in a row, but also traveling on short rest since it was a Friday game. A major advantage. IN that game we saw similar advantages although Washington State was +150 yards, and held USC to 5-14 and were +1 in TO margin. It was a much more banged up USC squad. At the end of the day this is a buy low sell high situation. I like the way California has played most of the year, but they are coming off rough back to back performances that make you think they are due to be blown out here again. Washington State comes in high off two huge wins and are now ranked #10, but I remind you they faced two teams that just had too many injuries to overcome. I underestimated Oregon’s loss at QB as some experts say it was worth north of a TD after watching that game I tend to agree. Cal’s defense will play well just like Oregon did, but they’ll put together some scoring drives and this game will be closer throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked if Cal got a chance to win it in the end. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan -10 | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Michigan -10 2.2% play @7:30PM ET I think this is an upgrade at QB for Michigan with John O’Korn. With O’Korn they had 3 trips to the red zone 3 TD’s vs. a good Purdue team. With Wilton Speights they had 10 trips to the red zone and just 1 TD. O’Korn also offers a bit more mobility and accuracy as he’s completed 70% of his passes. Michigan State off two very physical games in Notre Dame & Iowa coming into this game facing Michigan who is off a bye. Michigan State has covered the last 10 in the series and were 25 point dogs at home last season which says they should be a 30 point favorite at home, but they come in as a 10 point favorite. There is just too much value here with Michigan in my opinion. Michigan State is a very one dimensional offense right now it’s QB Brian Lewerke or nothing. He’s looked good at home, but in the last two games against Notre Dame and Iowa ranking 33rd, and 47th in yards per play defense this offense scored just 35 total points. Now they head onto the road to face the #1 defense in the nation from a yards per play perspective and I think they struggle to score. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | LSU +2.5 v. Florida | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show | |
LSU +2.5 3.3 % Play @ 3:30pm ET LSU is coming off a puzzling loss to Troy at home last week, but in fairness they were without 4 starters in that game. Also worth noting is that Troy has 16 starters back from last year’s team. This is the same Troy team that went on the road and nearly defeated last year’s National Champion, Clemson. They lost that game 30-24, and they did that despite turning the ball over 3 times. I think that only helped this team going into LSU this year and LSU probably peaking ahead to this Florida game. Ed Orgeron is clearly capable of rallying the troops and motivating young athletes. The offense get’s their biggest weapon back in Derius Guice for this game which could create issues for Florida’s defense that has not been that great ranking 63rd in yards per play. This defense is not as good as in years past, and I think OC Matt Canada will be able to come up with a game plan to put this team in a position to win. So please run the ball Canada! Florida on the other hand has looked good offensively, but now they lose their top WR in Tyrie Cleveland who caught a 98 yard TD in last year’s 16-10 win. This offense was already one dimensional and will become very easy to script a game plan against. You might say trick plays would be in order for Florida, but their offensive line cannot hold up ranking 106th at protecting the QB while LSU is dangerous at getting to the QB and will only continue to get better as Arden Key gets back into shape. Florida’s offense this year has not done much if they are not connecting on big plays and without Cleveland they will have issues. They have gotten into the red zone just 9 times. In last year’s match up Florida was extremely fortunate to win and I think LSU wants to repay them this year. LSU out gained Florida by 152 yards, but had 2 TO’s. They scored just 10 points despite 5 trips into the red zone. This year they are converting 65% of their red zone trips into TD’s. Florida is extremely fortunate to have the record they have right now, and LSU is just hungry for a win over an SEC opponent and I think they’ll get it here. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Minnesota +4 v. Purdue | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
Minnesota +4 2.2% play – 3:30pm ET I believe we get great line value here with the Gophers following their loss as a double digit favorite last week at home to Maryland who just out played them in the trenches running the ball and stopping the run. I’m not so sure that will happen against them here again this week. The Gophers do have an advantage in the trenches. I think Minnesota can methodically hold onto the ball and control the clock in this one. Purdue has stopped the run, but they have not created enough negative plays to force Minnesota into third and longs. Minnesota defensively is strong up front and can push Purdue into a one dimensional offensive attack. Purdue already throwing the ball more because they have had issues running the ball and they could be without their leading rusher for this game. Purdue’s QB David Blough clearly not 100% dating back to the summer with shoulder injuries. He says he’s feeling good and he’ll get the start, but at some point he’s going to struggle. I see Brohm throwing a lot here considering Minnesota has all of a sudden come down with injuries on defense especially in the secondary where they will be tested. However, this team was thin in their bowl game against Washington State as huge under dogs and the secondary played great limiting Washington State and pulling the upset. Minnesota’s defense should still play well here and if they can get the early lead like I believe they can considering Purdue is without 2 starters for the first half in this game (targeting) then Purdue will be forced to pass in obvious situations. That’s never a good thing for David Blough who is very much prone to turning the ball over which could be the difference in this game. I also like the advantage we have with Minnesota’s kicker going 4-5 form 40-49 yards out while Purdue is using 2 kickers for a reason and have yet to connect on a FG longer than 38 yards. We get some good line value in this one because of Minnesota loss and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them bounce back with a victory here. |