This rivalry always brings energy. TCU leads the all-time series 59–54–7. For this season, both Baylor and TCU come in at 4-2. The betting market has TCU as a 3-point favorite, and the over/under is in the 65.5 range (66.5 in some books).

What supports the “over” case is that both offenses have shown they can put up points, and both defenses have vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game offensively, though their defense gives up 29.7 points per game. TCU’s offense is averaging about 35.3 PPG, while their defense concedes around 24.7 PPG. That suggests both sides are capable of putting up moderate output, making a high-scoring game plausible.

Baylor’s quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been one of their consistent weapons. In their recent win vs. Kansas State, he threw for 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Baylor’s passing offense is a key part of their identity and their ability to stretch defenses. On the ground, Bryson Washington has chipped in, but Baylor’s strength leans toward getting chunk plays through the air. Also, Baylor’s defense tends to struggle in stopping big plays in the pass game — that opens the door for TCU to hit quick strikes.

On TCU’s side, quarterback Josh Hoover is capable of pushing tempo and making big throws. Baylor’s defensive metrics in pass defense are among the weaker spots, making them susceptible to explosive gains. Also, Baylor ranks low in run-defense metrics (for example, in defensive EPA per rush), so if TCU leans on a balanced attack, they could get enough yardage on the ground to force Baylor’s defense to stay honest.

Another angle: Baylor has a strong track record in “overs” recently. The total has gone over in 12 of Baylor’s last 16 games. And in Big 12 play, Baylor’s games often produce more points than expected. 

Given the matchup, I see Baylor and TCU trading blows. Each team has the ability to drive into the red zone and find ways to score, especially if there are defensive breakdowns or big plays allowed. 

Jim's Play: 385. Baylor/TCU OVER 

Even though the the Mariners come into this game 3 having a 2-1 series lead, they may feel urgency here tonight.  They lost Game 3 in a rout, giving up five home runs, and they’ll be motivated to respond at home. Toronto’s offense showed it’s dangerous in big bursts, so the Mariners can’t afford to be passive. Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor remain threats - they’ll need to get “on” early and force the Jays’ pitchers to work deep into their counts.

On the mound, Seattle is expected to send out Luis Castillo, a reliable arm in big spots. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, who brings experience and a track record of stepping up in October. But if Castillo allows a couple of base runners or Scherzer has command issues, we could see a quick trip to the bullpen for both sides. And in playoff games, that often loosens things up - more matchups, more chances for runs.

Defensively and bullpen-wise, neither side is flawless. Seattle’s relievers have shown they can be beat, especially under pressure. The Jays’ bullpen isn’t infallible either. If one inning opens up, this game has the potential to snowball into a high-scoring affair. Given the stakes - both teams needing to swing - I expect both clubs will push hard offensively and not sit back.

I'll take the Mariners and the OVER tonight. 

Jim's Play: 955. Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 

Thursday night features a Week 6 NFL showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals that has all the makings of an overperforming divisional game. 

The offenses of these two clubs have been trending in the right direction heading into the game. Aaron Rodgers has hit a groove for the Steelers by utilizing timing routes with shallow reads to extend plays. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth have established themselves as dynamic red-zone threats and Pittsburgh’s offensive line has managed to give Rodgers enough time to do his thing. The Bengals’ offense, on the other hand, has begun to come around for Joe Flacco. He and Ja’Marr Chase are developing rapport in the passing game and Cincinnati has also opened up the playbook to take more deep shots in the passing game after they were a non-factor to start the year.

The defenses of these two squads have not looked great. Pittsburgh’s secondary has not been great at defending the big play and Cincinnati has one of the worst red-zone stop rates in the league. A big-play passing game from either of these offenses combined with a lack of top-tier playmaking in the secondary from the other means there should be multiple scoring drives from each side. Early points on both sides’ opening possessions should set the tone for the over to hit as well.

The total is in the mid-40s and both of these teams have the offense and big-play ability to drive the score over that. Neither defense looks like it will be the kind to force a low-scoring affair and Rodgers and Flacco are both capable of stretching defenses vertically. This game is far more likely to go back-and-forth rather than being a slugfest. 

Seattle, coming off a 2–0 series lead, carries significant offensive momentum into Game 3. In Game 2, they pummeled the Jays for 10 runs, highlighted by another clutch homer from Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor and Julio Rodríguez flexing some power. The M’s bats are feeling it right now, and particularly in high-leverage situations. Seattle’s lineup is also just a volume one: They’re gonna barrel the ball, and put stress on Toronto’s arms to stay solid.

Toronto is capable of helping facilitate a shootout as well. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been among their most consistent bats in the postseason, and the Jays’ offense as a whole is one of the stronger ones in the American League. Not only do they slug, they have the patience to manufacture rallies when necessary, particularly if they find a pitcher struggling with his command.

The pitching matchup also slants this game towards the Over on total runs. Toronto will start Shane Bieber, who was strong in the regular season, but in the playoffs has had some consistency issues. Seattle will counter with George Kirby, who has been solid as a starter this year, but he’s no stopper. If either of these starters coughs up a couple early runs or gets taken out early, that will put stress on the bullpen. That’s often where games unlock. 

You also need to account for the fact that, in a playoff setting, teams are going to swing aggressively early to set a tone. Defensive miscues or bullpen mismatch arms tend to also come into play when under duress. Both of these offenses can strike, and both of these staffs have some question marks, so I’d expect this one to be more open than tight.

Jim's Play: 953. Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 

Buffalo arrives on a strong 4-1 record, but that came to an abrupt end last week as the Bills were stunned at home by the New England Patriots. The Bills’ defense is without a couple of key players right now, safety Damar Hamlin and defensive tackle T.J. Sanders are on IR and linebacker Matt Milano is also out. That hurts them in depth both in the secondary and up front, especially when it comes to trying to slow down dual threats.  Buffalo ranks 9th in defense, 2nd in rush but 29th in pass. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen is a dangerous player both with his arm and his legs; he will try to push the Falcons’ discipline.

But Atlanta does have a few things going for it. First, the Falcons’ pass defense has quietly been one of the better units in the league this season.  The Falcons have the top ranked defense in the NFL, 16th in rush and 1st in pass (135 yards per game). They may have more trouble with Buffalo’s tight ends (Dalton Kincaid, in particular), but if they force contested throws or push the Bills off schedule, that could limit the scoring. On offense, rookie Bijan Robinson gives Atlanta a versatile runner who can push what could be a somewhat depleted Buffalo run defense.  And with the Bills already ranked 29th in rush defense it could be a big day for Robinson. The Falcons also get an extra week of preparation thanks to their bye, which should help their game plan and recovery. 

The line is around Bills -4.5 in many places. Not a ton of breathing room there. If Atlanta can establish a balanced attack - lean on Robinson, make enough plays through the air, and force some Buffalo turnovers - they don’t need to win this outright to cover. If Josh Allen is pressured or forced into mistakes, Buffalo could also be capped in how much they can cover for.

All of that said, I like the Falcons to keep this one within a field goal, potentially even flip the script late with a shot at the straight-up win against a poor Bills rush defense. 

Jim's Play: 276. OVER

Cincinnati heads into Lambeau Field reeling. They’re 2–3, riding a three-game losing streak, and just this week traded for Joe Flacco and made him their starting quarterback. The move signals desperation,  their offense has lacked rhythm, and they’ve turned the ball over at key moments. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t been much help either, giving up a lot of yards and points in recent weeks.

Green Bay, by contrast, enters 2-1-1 and is coming off a bye. Jordan Love has shown flashes of growth, and the Packers’ offense has a nice balance,  they can move the ball through the air and on the ground,  which puts pressure on Cincinnati to match pace. Even missing Christian Watson hurts their receiving corps, but they still have enough weapons to stress defenses.

Given how weak Cincinnati’s defense has looked and how much the new Flacco-led offense may lean on passing (trying to play catch-up), I expect this game to open up. Green Bay will likely score efficiently, and Cincinnati should push back enough to force Green Bay to stay aggressive.  If both teams hit on explosive plays, this could exceed expectations.

Jim's Play: 271. Bengals/Packers OVER

The LA Chargers make the long East Coast trip to face the Miami Dolphins here on Sunday.   The total for this contest is 43.5, and it’s a low number for a reason. Both sides are coming into this game with incentive to think this will be grind-it-out rather than smash-it-out.

On offense, the Chargers’ line is in tatters. If they can’t protect Herbert, they’ll probably run more, and their run game is probably worse than your typical Chargers team as well, after losing Omarion Hampton to IR earlier in the week. The run/pass balance gets all screwed up in predictable ways. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense is very streaky. They have been unable to put together multi-drive scoring drives, although this has partly been due to their D. But again, this has seemed to be more an issue of precision and talent rather than pure talent. When both offenses are capable of inexplicable stretches of potency that change the whole tenor of the game, it makes it more of a concern for either team to crack the whip in this game. Add that to the fact that neither line is particularly strong, and you could easily see a game that plays like a drag with long drives for the most part, more missed opportunities for each side to do much of anything, and limited explosiveness from either offense. In fact, I think Miami’s D is good enough to force a fair number of those three and outs if they play to form, and at least from a Chargers perspective, they’re not leaving much room for me to see this game “exploding.”

I look for this game to go under the total here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 263. Chargers / Dolphins UNDER

The Colts’ attack has been one of the sharper units through 2025. They’ve been especially crisp on early downs, building into big chains and making defenses have to remain honest. (The Colts are the No. 1 team in first and second down success rate.) Plus, there’s a balance on play-calling: a passing game that can stretch the field plus enough rushing ability to keep defenses off balance. The offensive line has been sturdy, giving the QB a clean pocket more often than not.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have been middling on offense. They haven’t been explosive in the yardage game and are facing an uncertainty at quarterback: Kyler Murray is questionable with a foot injury, and the team is activating backup options. Also, James Conner will miss the rest of the season (after surgery), which further depletes the Cardinals’ depth at running back. Defensively, Arizona has had stretches of resistance, but the Colts’ ability to mix tempo and play types may pressure the secondary and linebacking corps.

Considering the Colts have a short passing game that can score in bunches and the Cardinals will likely be forced into high-risk, high-reward plays to stay in the game, this feels like it’s a shootout in the making. If Arizona is forced into passing situations, this opens up opportunities for big plays and turnovers. Furthermore, the question marks at QB for Arizona could lead to more aggressive play-calling, which tends to lead to more offense but can backfire.

Jim's Play: 255. Cardinals/Colts OVER

This feels like one of those games where the “how” might matter more than the “who.” The Cowboys come in at 2-2-1, while Carolina is 2-3. Dallas is favored by about 3 points, and the total is hovering around 49.5.

Dallas’ offense has been rolling, Dak Prescott is efficient, spreading the ball around, and Javonte Williams is doing damage on the ground. The Panthers, meanwhile, showed a glimpse of what they can do when their run game is humming: Rico Dowdle exploded for 206 yards last week, handing them a big boost. That performance also gives them momentum and confidence heading into this tilt, especially against a Dallas defense that’s had major issues.

Carolina’s defensive numbers have been shaky, particularly against the pass. They rank among the worst units in yardage allowed. If Dallas can keep their balance and avoid going one-dimensional, I expect they’ll be able to pick apart the Panthers’ back end. On the other side, if Carolina leans heavy on Dowdle and keeps the chains moving, they might make a game of it.

Something else to watch: penalties and turnovers. Dallas has had bouts of sloppiness in that regard, and Carolina plays with more discipline in that area. If Dallas lets that seep into this game, it could bite them.

Jim's Play: 261. Cowboys/Panthers OVER 

Notre Dame’s starter is C.J. Carr, a freshman who’s shown flashes in limited action. Through his appearances, he’s thrown for 221 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He also adds some mobility, though his rushing contributions have been modest so far. (In his first start vs. Miami, he completed 19 of 30 passes for 221 yards and 2 scores.)

For NC State, C.J. Bailey is under center. So far in 2025, Bailey has produced 1,323 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He’s been a steady presence in the pocket, spreading the ball around and managing pressure well.

Because both QBs can stretch the field and their offenses have enough firepower, I expect this one to be open. Notre Dame will try to take advantage of NC State’s secondary, while NC State will push tempo and challenge coverages. Defenses on both sides have shown vulnerabilities, and with two capable offenses, this game has the ingredients to push over.

Jim's Play: 195. Notre Dame / NC State OVER 

Both teams have struggled to find consistent offensive rhythm this season, which sets up a defensive-minded game. UCLA comes in averaging around 344 total yards per game, split between roughly 190 passing yards and 150 rushing yards. The Bruins have relied heavily on their ground game but have lacked explosive plays through the air. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has shown flashes of efficiency, but the offense tends to stall on third downs and in the red zone. Defensively, UCLA has held opponents to under 21 points per game, with a front seven that’s been solid against the run.

Michigan State hasn’t fared much better offensively, averaging just over 20 points per game. Quarterback Aidan Chiles, a young dual-threat transfer from Oregon State, has accounted for over 1,000 total yards and nine touchdowns but has faced frequent pressure behind an inconsistent offensive line. The Spartans’ defense, however, has quietly improved, ranking among the top half of the Big Ten in yards allowed and limiting opponents to about 330 yards per game.

Both teams rely on ball control and defensive stops, and neither offense is built to play catch-up. Expect long possessions, heavy rushing attacks, and a low number of explosive plays. Unless one side breaks a big special teams play or forces multiple turnovers, points should be hard to come by.

Jim's Play: 147. UCLA/Michigan State UNDER 

Philadelphia enters at 4-1, sitting atop the NFC East. The Eagles have been reliable in scoring, they average 25.7 points per game, ranking 8th in the league in that category. Their defense has been solid too, allowing about 21.0 points per game. On offense, they’re running a balanced scheme, though their aerial attack has struggled at times, they average just 146.7 passing yards per game, placing them near the bottom in that metric. Meanwhile, their rushing attack is more middle of the pack, at 122.0 yards per game with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley carrying the load of rushing. Their offense tends to be methodical, favoring sustained drives over rapid scoring bursts.

New York has had a rough start. The Giants are 1-3, placing them 4th in the NFC East. They’ve scored just 73 points total (about 18.3 per game, which ranks 28th in the league) while conceding 101 points (25.3 per game).  Jaxson Dart took over at QB last week and after a nifty start to the game, the offense sputtered for the remaining three quarters with Dart turning the ball over three times. They should get  RB Tyrone Tracy back this week in the backfield  after he missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury.  This will share the backfield workload and give them more options on offense.   Offensively, they’ve lacked consistency, especially in the passing game where protection and execution have faltered under pressure. Defensively, they’ve been vulnerable against the run and have struggled to get off the field on third downs.

When you put it all together, this game feels like it’s tipped toward a slower pace. The Eagles prefer to control tempo, chew up clock, and force opponents to keep pace. The Giants simply don’t have the offense to match shot for shot, especially under pressure. Also, with the short week, I expect fewer explosive plays and more conservative play-calling from both sides.

Jim's Play: 105. Eagles/Giants UNDER 

Cristopher Sanchez will start for Philadelphia after the Phillies staved off elmination with a dominant game 3 blowout of the Dodgers, 8-2. Kyle Schwarber powered a pair of home runs to lead the Phillies.  They need to win again here on Thursday and will turn to one of their most consistent starters all season and closed out the regular season at 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA, 212 strikeouts in 202 innings and a WHIP of 1.06. He’s very good at limiting walks, plus he has strikeout stuff, so he has the potential to be dangerous in a postseason game.

Tyler Glasnow will try to clinch the NLDS for the Dodgers as he takes the mound. The southpaw is coming off a stint on the injured list and is just now getting going again. He’s recorded a 4-3 record with a 3.19 ERA, 106 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.10 through 90.1 innings in 2025. Glasnow has the stuff to be dominant when he’s right, but the rust after a layoff may make him prone to early trouble. Glasnow also had a stint out of the bullpen in game one to help keep the Dodgers in the lead in that game. 

Offensively, these lineups have some punch. The Dodgers have the hitting profile of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and others who can capitalize on mistakes. The Phillies have some pop of their own in Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and other bats that can put together hits and manufacture big innings. 

As we saw in game three, even with dominant starters on the hill these teams have firepower up and down the line up to put up big runs.  I have to stick with the OVER here in game four. 

Jim's Play: 915. Phillies/Dodgers OVER 

The LA Dodgers took game one  and two at Philly to put this series on the edge of elmination as they return to Chavez Ravine here tonight for this game three. 

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto was simply elite during the regular season, posting a 12-8 record with a 2.49 ERA while striking out more than 200 batters. The former Japanese League MVP has elite command on all four of his pitches, mixing in a hammer of a splitter that he uses to keep hitters off-balance. Despite his sterling season, Yamamoto has been prone to the long-ball at times when he loses command of his fastball, which could be a recipe for disaster against a Phillies lineup that can punish mistakes.

Philadelphia is looking to Aaron Nola to turn around their rotation’s uneven regular season. Nola went 5-10 with a 6.01 ERA in 2022, but his extensive postseason experience and an ability to pitch deep into games when his curveball is working have the Phillies hoping he can stop the bleeding. Of course, Nola’s command has been erratic at times during his career, which should keep the Dodgers’ bats dangerous late.

There is no shortage of power in this series, with both lineups capable of lengthy hot streaks. Los Angeles was nearly as relentless at the plate as it was on the mound, with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman leading the way in an order that ranked near the top of the league in both home runs and on-base percentage. Philadelphia can match the Dodgers on the power front with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto,  all of whom have the potential to alter the complexion of a game with one swing. Both bullpens have been taxed to this point in this series, so they will likely need more innings than they would like in this one, creating an opportunity for both teams to pad the score.

A lineup featuring some of the biggest names in the game is too much to keep in check for either of these teams, so expect both lineups to come through at some point. Nola has a history of leaving a lot of runners on base, but the same is true of Yamamoto and the inconsistent control of his fastball can create some big innings. The Dodgers will take this one, but both teams should have their share of scoring chances.

Jim's Play: 911. Phillies/Dodgers OVER 7.5 

Kansas City sits at 2-2 on the year and is looking to get back on track after a bit of a slow start on offense. Patrick Mahomes is already at nearly 1,000 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception on the year, and when this offense is firing on all cylinders it can put up a ton of points. The Chiefs are averaging over 30 points in their two wins on the season and their quick-strike ability with Travis Kelce and wideout Xavier Worthy make them a threat on every drive. Defensively the Chiefs have not been able to slow down high powered passing attacks and given up multiple big plays through the air over the last few weeks.

Jacksonville is sitting at 3-1 this season, as Trevor Lawrence has continued to play well and lead an offensive attack that is extremely balanced. Lawrence is at 850+ yards with five touchdowns on the year, and with Travis Etienne running well they have maintained solid balance on offense. The offensive line has been good so far and allowed Lawrence to have time to push the ball downfield to Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk. Jacksonville’s tempo can also work well to keep up with teams including Kansas City when it clicks.

The two offenses line up well to take advantage of their respective defenses, as the Chiefs’ secondary have been prone to big plays and Jacksonville’s defense can be opportunistic but has also been vulnerable to playmakers at the quarterback position. Both teams can put up points in bunches and this has all the makings of a shootout under the lights on Monday night.

Look for multiple scoring drives, a few quick strikes, and both quarterbacks to eclipse 250 yards through the air. My pick: Over. 

Jim's Play: 485. Chiefs / Jaguars OVER 

Buffalo enters this game riding a wave of offensive success. The Bills are averaging just over 450 yards per game and rank in the top ten in terms of total offense. Josh Allen has been effective in the passing game spreading the ball to his playmakers, while running back James Cook has kept things balanced on the ground. Buffalo is averaging 34 points per game and their efficiency on third down has enabled them to both drive for long stretches as well as get red zone production when they need it.

New England has also been better offensively than many anticipated. The Patriots are averaging in the 23 to 25 point range and have found a good mix of the run game with play-action passing. New England’s defense has remained stout against the run as they have given up under 80 yards per game, but they have struggled at times to defend the big play through the air, something that could open up against Allen and Buffalo’s deep threat weapons.

Typically, when these two teams play there is a rise in scoring. Buffalo’s offensive tempo has often forced opponents to open up the playbook and New England’s ability to sustain drives on third down will enable them to chime in on the scoreboard. The playmakers on both sides of this ball have the ability to create explosive plays and scoring opportunities on short fields.

With both teams likely capable of pushing past the 30 point threshold, this game has all the potential to be a high-scoring affair.

Jim's Play: 483. Patriots / Bills OVER

The Blue Jays took game one of this best of five series in Toronto, with a blowout win, 10-1. Alejajdro Kirk had a pair of home runs to pace the Jays while Vlad Guerro Jr added another.  Game two here on Sunday will have the Yankees starting Max Fried, while Toronto has Chase Yesavage on the mound. This matchup is enticing because of the opposing starters’ styles on the mound,  it’s a battle of a lefty vs. a righty that will probably see some early runs and action. Fried had a 12-6 record with a 3.41 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 176 innings on the year. The veteran southpaw has big-game experience but has been pretty up and down recently, giving up nine runs over his last 15 innings. Lineups are hitting over .280 off him over that same span. Fried will need to command his curveball against a Blue Jays team that swings at pitches up in the zone and has a lot of right-handed batters who have struggled against left-handed pitching in the past.

Toronto is going with rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage for its first start of the postseason. The 22-year-old ha 1-0  record and 3.21 ERA, with 16 strikeouts. 

Both teams have the ability to hit, and both starting pitchers have question marks. Fried has had some issues when pitching on the road in recent starts, and inexperience could hurt Yesavage and lead to the Yankees scoring early. New York finished the regular season among the league leaders in home runs, and Toronto’s offense was in the top five in OPS at home. The bullpens have also both been overworked in recent weeks, so that sets up a game where both teams can score.

With two hittable starters, deep lineups, and the pressure of a playoff game likely leading to both teams’ pitchers not having much of a leash, this one has all the makings of a slugfest. My pick is to play the over on this game in Toronto.

Jim's Play: 941. Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 

Tampa Bay has had an offense that’s played at a higher level than I expected. Baker Mayfield has already passed the 900-yard mark and has eight touchdowns. The passing game has worked at all levels with some quick game and some vertical shots. Rachaad White has made strides in the run game to open up the offense and sell play action. And the Buccaneers have been good on offense after the catch to turn short passes into chunk plays to move the chains and get into scoring position.

Seattle has also proven it can keep up with a gun-slinging offense. Sam Darnold has also passed the 900-yard mark, and he’s also at five passing touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III is keeping the Seahawks from being one-dimensional on offense. Seattle’s offense is averaging almost 30 points and more than 330 yards per game. Darnold has been good at spreading the ball around to Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba when he’s had time in the pocket. It leaves Seattle with a variety of weapons to score.

Defensively, both these teams have struggled to slow down opposing offenses, too. Tampa Bay’s secondary has allowed some explosive plays in its last few games. Seattle hasn’t been much better as its defense has shown an inability to slow down big plays and mobile quarterbacks. When you have two offenses that can score quickly and two defenses that don’t look particularly stout, you have a game that sets up to be very back and forth with early scores.

Mayfield and Darnold should both have good games throwing downfield. The tempo of the game should also support the over. My pick: expect a lot of offense here,  it goes over.

Jim's Play: 477. Buccaneers/Seahawks OVER

Head coach John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens have to make a huge adjustment this Sunday. Quarterback Lamar Jackson was placed on injured reserve, which means the team is on pace to have a tough time scoring points.  Jackson’s playmaking ability will be tough to replicate. The Ravens have been pedestrian in the passing game and are averaging just 205 passing yards per game. Running back Derrick Henry is excellent, but he can’t completely replace the damage that Jackson could cause on the ground.  Call me a cynic, but Jackson not being on the field means Baltimore is leaning into dink-and-dunk passing, running the ball frequently, and likely playing low-scoring games. Look, I think Houston has been just as bad on offense. It just hasn’t been as visible.   

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has dealt with a patchwork offensive line and has taken way too many sacks. The Texans are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league and are averaging about 13 points per game. Houston has not converted third downs nearly enough, which limits explosive scoring drives and forces it to play on the back foot. Houston has a better defense than we’re used to seeing, and that will help with the under for sure.

The two teams are better against the spread because they don’t normally give their offenses as many chances in games. Baltimore has a top-five defense, which means Houston will be on its heels a majority of the game. The Texans also have a stout front seven, so one-dimensional Baltimore should fare well. When you mix in the nature of these teams and the need for both to rely on conservative play-calling and strong defense, you get a game that is a lower-scoring matchup where field position is more important. I will take the under here. 

Jim's Play: 473. Texans/Ravens UNDER 

Las Vegas is an offensive juggernaut, led by the sheer will of A’ja Wilson. The team is capable of completely burying opponents in their own runoff and in those games, they don’t typically play to the lofty average of 83 points per game that they are currently at.

There are a few trends to back this up, though. First, the Aces themselves are responsible for giving up almost 82 points per game (94.2 per 100 possessions, the defense is actually slightly below average). There are going to be stretches in this game when neither team can find their offense and this playoff-style game is expected to play tighter and less permissive of easy baskets than the one we saw in the regular season.

Phoenix is absolutely capable of a shooting war, as their scoring output in a given game is almost identical, currently at just under 83 points per game. Their offensive prowess, though, has not been their main contribution this year. It is the combination of balance and a top-tier defense that will allow the Mercury to pull this off.

Phoenix is only allowing opponents to score 80 points per game this year. To keep the game in the half court and on their terms, Alyssa Thomas, and her almost nightly triple-double efficiency, is going to be more important than ever. In the half court, Phoenix looks to let it be physical rather than high-scoring, and an Aces team that probably plans to grind through non-stop pick-and-roll with Wilson in the post are more than happy to oblige.

Phoenix and Las Vegas are both rosters with at least one star who can put them on their back and win them a game, but that is typically only when the other team is at full strength as well. We are talking about two of the most competitive teams in the league, with elite defenses when they play at this level. Efficiency plummets, possessions become longer, and it is almost inevitable that the total will hit a wall at some point.

The best way to facilitate this approach is by pulling out every defensive stop on both ends and getting this game as far away from a 20-second shot clock offense as possible. Phoenix wants to dictate tempo with Thomas in the post and taking it in half-court sets and the Aces are likely to give Wilson a head start on offense by feeding her at the elbow. If the defenses step up and neither team can live through constant pick-and-roll, we could have an unexpected outcome.

Jim's Play: 611. Mercury/Aces UNDER 

Westnern Kentucky (WKU) comes in at 4-1, 2-0 in Conference USA,  already their best start in recent memory. Offensively, they’re rolling with quarterback Maverick McIvor at the helm. McIvor currently ranks first in FBS with 1,474 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. WKU runs an Air Raid scheme that facilitates volume and forces defenses to keep up with pace and tempo. Delaware is 3-1, 1-0 in conference play. For a program that is transitioning from FCS to FBS in 2025, they’ve been a surprise in many people’s eyes. Delaware’s quarterback Nick Minicucci has showed dual-threat capability and has been able to contribute through the air and on the ground. The ground game has flourished and been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Hens.

Defensively, the matchup becomes more intriguing. WKU operates out of a base 3–3–5 scheme in an attempt to stay flexible and prevent big plays. The Hilltoppers have been able to stifle explosive throws, and have made offenses earn their yards. Delaware is a work in progress with FBS speed, and will likely be tested by the WKU passing volume. The Hilltoppers have more practice in chucking it at all levels, and if Delaware is uncovered or has a miscommunication, WKU can make a big play. Ultimately, in this game, I think home field favors Delaware and the crowd will provide some electricity for them. But the experience of WKU, the depth at receiver and the offensive identity will win the day. If McIvor can find a rhythm, it can become a second-half runaway. This game should have plenty of offense tonight. I'm taking the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 307. Western Kentucky / Delaware OVER 

This is a game that projects more of a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair than a high-scoring one. The 49ers are a banged-up team right now. Brock Purdy’s out with a toe injury and Mac Jones will be making his first start at quarterback for San Francisco. The 49ers will also be without receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings along with tight end George Kittle, who is still on IR. All three are very effective weapons for the 49ers and they will sorely be missed in their ability to make big plays or just move the chains on long drives. San Francisco has also had a non-existent run game on several occasions this year, where they have had a hard time finding open field.

Los Angeles is a solid defensive team early in the season. They put pressure on the quarterback and do a good job of avoiding chunk plays. Quarterbacks can have success against the Rams through the air, but their front seven can often force teams into three-and-outs or short drives early in games, something that plays into a lower total.

I just do not see much offensive firepower from the 49ers with the injuries they have in their passing game and a capable, bend-but-don’t-break Rams defense, so I do not see this game getting out of hand in either direction, especially early on. My pick is under. 

Jim's Play: 301. 49ers/Rams UNDER

Chicago has the home field advantage in the winner-take-all matchup. They went 92-70 during the regular season and split the season series with San Diego, 3-3. Chicago’s second-half rotation has had a better run prevention profile, posting a 3.48 ERA to San Diego’s 4.28, so they have a slight edge on the side where pitching makes a difference. The Cubs also had the home field advantage in this Wild Card matchup.

The Padres will send veteran right-hander Yu Darvish to the mound. Darvish went 12-8 during the regular season with a 3.64 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 184 innings. He still has the ability to miss bats and rise to the occasion, but at 39, his consistency has wavered, especially against patient lineups that can run up his pitch count. On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who turned in one of his steadier campaigns, finishing 11-9 with a 3.81 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 171 innings. Taillon doesn’t dominate with overpowering stuff, but his command and ability to limit damage have been keys to his success.

Chicago should have enough offense to take it either way. Between the homer power and patient approaches, the Cubs showed in Game 1 that they can beat San Diego’s staff even if they have a good day. The Padres also have offense that can come alive in a hurry, with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez all dangerous at the plate. But the Padres’ offense disappeared in Game 2, getting shut out 3-0 against Cubs pitchers and relievers.

On the pitching side, the Chicago arms on the roster give them a chance. The Padres bullpen is deep and has been dominant recently with guys like Mason Miller pitching as good as any reliever in the league, but San Diego has also shown weaknesses in this postseason. 

With both teams being able to swing for the fences with a win-or-go-home situation, I like a bit more offense than Game 2 saw. Chicago has the matchup advantages, crowd and a track record of punching back when they go down early.  I'll take the OVER here in game three. 

Jim's Play: Take: 911. Padres/Cubs OVER 

Los Angeles comes into this matchup as the stronger regular-season team. They finished 93-69, winning the NL West and entering as one of the favorites in the postseason. Cincinnati, on the other hand, clinched the Wild Card with an 83-79 record on the final day of the regular season. Though they lost to the Brewers, the Mets also lost which let the Reds back into their Wildcard slot - their first playoff berth in a full season since 2013. 

The Dodgers are expected to start Blake Snell in Game 1, while the Reds will counter with Hunter Greene. Snell has shown the ability to keep runs in check in big games, especially by missing barrels and limiting traffic in the deep innings. Snell looked great down the stretch along with the rest of the Dodgers' starting staff.  Greene is electric and has strikeout upside, but in the postseason setting, his margin for error shrinks. The matchup of arms is a strong foundation to believe early scoring will be limited.

Offensively, the Reds have been middling. They rank about 11th in total runs scored (4.6 runs per game) and have hit 109 home runs this season, which is modest power. In head-to-head games, the Dodgers have had the upper hand, they took the season series 5-1. Also, in recent matchups, Los Angeles’ hitters have shown they can get on base and manufacture runs with consistency, while the Reds often rely on bursts rather than sustained rallies.

Defensively and bullpen-wise, the Dodgers have the deeper relief corps. If the starters exit early or start showing fatigue, L.A. has more reliable arms to bridge to late innings. Cincinnati’s bullpen is solid, but in a short series, the pressure intensifies and leverage situations increase.

Given all that, a strong Dodgers starter, modest offense from Cincinnati, favorable bullpen matchups, and the Dodgers’ edge in season series, the game has a low scoring feel. I expect both starters to manage their lineups well, fewer big innings, and the game to stay under the total across nine innings.

Jim's Play: 947. Reds/Dodgers UNDER 

At 2-1, Cincinnati has shown spurts on offense but also done some self-sabotage on defense. They’ve had 205 total plays so far, and we’re at about 1,079 total yards in three games, averaging 5.3 yards per play. Points allowed has been an issue for the Bengals, at 91 total and 30.3 per game. Cincinnati’s offense has been surprisingly balanced considering their quarterback situation, and they have some playmakers in the passing game even if they’re working some new wrinkles. The Bengals have the 25 ranked defense, allowing 351 yards per game. 

Denver is 1-2 but can claim a couple of close losses. They average 302 total yards per game and have some depth in their rushing attack that can make defenses pay, as they have 129 rushing yards per game to rank in the upper half of the league. The passing game is still finding its way to an efficient output at 173 passing yards per game. Bo Nix has been decently efficient in spots, while J.K. Dobbins does his damage on the ground to keep plays alive. Dobbins ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing (5th in the AFC). 

The reason I lean towards the over here is both offenses can push the pace and both defenses still have holes. Cincinnati has given up a ton of points and haven’t found a way to make stops consistently, which means Denver doesn’t need to be perfect to get into the end zone. Denver’s passing game hasn’t been great enough to put points on the board with a significant margin, but they have shown flashes, and they do have a good run game. Also, when either of these teams have played, the defenses can fold at times and open the door to a larger point total, and momentum swings also give the impression that this game could have some big swings.

This is the kind of game that has the potential to be a track meet between offenses. I’m taking the over. 

Jim's Play: 279. Bengals/Broncos OVER 

On Sunday, two offenses in their infancy will clash in what figures to be a shootout. Chicago has been inconsistent through three weeks but their offense has the ability to move the ball with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams (715 passing yards in 3 games) and playmakers like D’Andre Swift (149 rushing yards) in the backfield. Swift has been inconsistent as well but Chicago has been able to move the ball (1,161 total yards) and average more than 20 points per game. Chicago’s defense has been a big problem, allowing 93 points (31 per game) which is in the bottom three in the league. Their injury luck hasn’t been the best, with cornerback Jaylon Johnson and lineman Kiran Amegadije both listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.

Las Vegas is 1-2 as well but they’ve been a much more efficient offense, putting up 1,053 yards to Chicago’s 1,161. Geno Smith has been the steady veteran passer, throwing for 831 yards while Ashton Jeanty has been a threat to balance the ground attack (144 rushing yards). The pass catchers have also emerged with Jakobi Meyers at 228 yards and Tre Tucker finally making his mark last week with 145 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Raiders have playmakers on defense like Maxx Crosby but they’ve also had issues against the pass and that’s allowed opponents to stay in games.

There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball in this one and both defenses have been generous with yards and points. The elements for a shootout in the desert are present. Chicago has an offense that can make chunk plays while Las Vegas has the explosiveness to get into the end zone quickly through the air. If the Bears defense is as porous as it has been and the Raiders can use their young weapons to score, there should be more than enough chances to cash the over on this line.

Jim's Play: 271. Bears/Raiders OVER (NFL  Total of the Month)

This Jacksonville-San Francisco matchup has some potential to be a low-scoring game. The 2-1 Jaguars have some balance; they average about 356 yards per game total, with 141.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them among the better rushing attacks in the league. Their offense also doesn’t force you to throw the ball every single drive. You can methodically move the ball downfield in the Jaguars’ offense. (Jacksonville has also been somewhat fortunate to turn the ball over at times, which obviously kills drives.)

On the other side, San Francisco is much more pass-oriented. They average 361 yards per game, but 89.7 of those are on the ground. That imbalance suggests they’ll be more likely to try and move the ball via the pass, with an emphasis on controlling tempo and the clock in the passing game. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, while injuries and offensive line play have limited their ability to generate ground production. At the same time, San Francisco’s defense has shown it can win in the trenches, especially against the run. Even without Nick Bosa for the year, this defense will still test San Francisco’s passing attack, and they have shown some good fundamentals.

With Jacksonville’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit tempo, as well as San Francisco’s struggles to run the ball effectively, I expect to see more stalled drives and fewer explosive plays, with the defenses keeping the ball under control. Throw in some weather and game-management issues at the end of the game, and this one has the look of an under.

Jim's Play: 267. Jags/49ers UNDER 

Indianapolis comes into this game riding high on a 3-0 start to the season. The Colts are first in the NFL in total offense, averaging just under 418.7 yards per game and 34.3 points per game. They are also first in the league with rushing, gaining just under 153 yards per game on the ground. Daniel Jones has completed over 66% of his passes and the Colts’ defense has only given up a total of 56 points, just under 18.7 per game.

Los Angeles Rams are 2-1 on the year but have shown they can move the ball on offense as well. The Rams are averaging just under 363.7 yards per game on offense and have 1965 yards combined in the air and on the ground so far on the year. Matthew Stafford has 739 yards through the air on the year and Kyren Williams has 226 yards rushing on the ground. On defense, the Rams have given up a total of 61 points so far this year, an average of just under 20.3 points per game.

On paper, this has the potential to be a shootout between these two teams. The Colts can score quickly, and the Rams have enough offense to put points on the board in return. It doesn’t appear that either team has the defense to shut down their opponent for 60 minutes at a time either. This is a matchup between two high-powered offenses, so I like this one to go over the total.

Jim's Play: 269. Colts/Rams OVER 

I have a lean to the under in this one. Los Angeles is on a roll. Herbert is putting up efficient numbers in the passing game, already with 860 yards through three games. The Chargers are getting the job done on third down often enough to keep their drives alive, and they have a league-average rushing attack that picks up about 92 yards per game on the ground. That helps Los Angeles control the clock and keep a balanced attack. Defensively, the Chargers have also kept their opponent out of rhythm in stretches.

Meanwhile, the Giants are 0-3 and not been able to get much going on offense. Wilson has completed only about 59 percent of his passes for 778 yards so far. 

The Giants are benching Wilson and bringing in their rookie Jaxson Dart. They don’t have much of a running game (71 yards per game), so the Giants can’t afford to play keep-away and have to rely on long drives. They’re getting some work done on defense, but have also given up 83 points (27.7 ppg). They’ve done that in spurts, however, and I don’t think the Chargers offense will put them on their heels and give up many big plays. So with two offenses that lack big-play threats right now (particularly the Giants), and with the Giants offense having shown an inability to finish drives, I don’t see this game as a shootout. My play under the total.  With Dart starting you know the Giants are not going to put to much on his shoulders. They will go to a shorter passing attack and running the ball. The Under looks like the play here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 265. Chargers/Giants UNDER 

These two meet for the Kuter Trophy, a trophy given to the winner of a renewed rivalry Air Force leads 14-8-1. The matchup itself projects to be an up tempo, attack friendly game. Air Force has looked explosive on offense, averaging around 38.7 points per game in spite of a shaky defense. They have generated just over 1,385 yards in three games and their offense as a whole is averaging 6.32 yards per play. Hawaii’s opponents, meanwhile, have averaged nearly 37 points per contest against the Falcons, which is an indicator games tend to be a little loose and high scoring.

Hawaii comes in at 3-2 and has shown some inconsistency but their offensive profile screams volatility. Their average yardage figures are middling but their passing leaders Luke Weaver and Pofele Ashlock both have strong potential to put up large chunks of yardage in short order. Their defense is middle of the pack in points allowed, meaning they will be vulnerable if opposing offenses get in a groove.

What points toward the over is Air Force’s defense struggling to defend the big play, especially in the run game, which opens avenues for Hawaii to score in bursts. Turnovers have been an issue on both sides of the ball, which gives extra possessions that have a tendency to lead to inflated scoring. If Air Force plays to its offense early and Hawaii does the same in response this becomes a back and forth contest. In a game with shaky defenses and playmakers on both sides the over looks like the right call.

Jim's Play: 149. Hawaii/Air Force OVER 

The series moves to Indiana tied 1-1 with the Aces winning Game 2 in a blowout (90-68). The Fever stole one on the road in Game 1 behind a 34-point outburst from Kelsey Mitchell, but the Aces responded with a 25-point game from A’ja Wilson and a more efficient overall attack in Game 2. Las Vegas came out with one of their best games of the playoffs: Wilson went 10 of 18 with five steals, NaLyssa Smith scored 18 on 7/9 shooting, and the supporting cast (Jackie Young, Jewell Loyd, Chelsea Gray) all did damage. Indiana’s offense never found its groove. 

The Aces are built for high scoring games. Wilson is the engine, but Vegas is at their best when secondary players are able to get going when Wilson draws attention. Indiana has the firepower to force the Aces to defend even if they’re missing players: Mitchell, Odyssey Sims, and Lexie Hull (if she’s healthy enough to go) will all punish defenses for being stagnant and they’ll try to push the pace, get out in transition and force Vegas to turn the ball over. With both teams having tossed and absorbed more than enough buckets in this series, it’s wide open.

Vegas will be looking to shut down Indiana’s shooters, make them earn their points and throw cold ones at them. But Indiana can catch fire, especially in stretches, and Wilson can’t be hedged if the Aces are going at it. In short: I see more back-and-forth scoring in this game than a grind-it-out defensive slugfest. I’ll take the total over for Game 3 in Indianapolis and expect both teams to serve up a menu of fast breaks, open threes, and runs as they battle for momentum.

Jim's Play: 617. Aces/Fever OVER  

Coming down to the wire in the Mets postseason chances. Despite their horrib recent run, they still cling to that final Wild Card slot, one game ahead of both the Reds and Diamondbacks. So every game is a must win at this point for the Mets. 

Nolan McLean is on the mound for New York. He’s been impressive in his brief MLB career to date: in 7 starts, he has a 4-1 record, 1.27 ERA, 46 K’s, and 1.01 WHIP. (He’s struck guys out, commanded the zone, has good swing-and-miss, and hasn’t given up many big innings.) 

For Chicago, Shota Imanaga has a track record of experience. He’s 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA, 114 strikeouts, and a 0.96 WHIP in 139 innings this season. He has excellent control, and surrenders few free passes. In his last few weeks he’s been steady and has limited big innings.

Put those two together and it’s a good recipe for a low-scoring, close game. McLean’s emergence and Imanaga’s stability suggests that few innings of runaway scoring are expected. Mix in late season bullpen-management, game situation awareness, and the likelihood that both sides will likely prefer to trust their arms more than a relentless tempo and the total is unlikely to be breached.

I look for a low scoring game and will be on the UNDER here tonight. 

Jim's Play: 907. Mets/Cubs UNDER

Both the Cardinals (76-80) and Giants (77-79) find themselves in similar boats, scrapping for relevance down the stretch, hoping to affect the NL Wild Card picture even though neither is a lock. The Giants are three games back in the Wildcard race and the Cardinals are four games back. Because of that urgency, neither team is going to play it too conservatively. Expect both lineups to swing freely and try to capitalize on every opportunity. These kinds of games often produce more scoring than you'd think, especially with pitching matchups that have some cracks to exploit.

The probable pitchers are Michael McGreevy for St. Louis (7-3, 4.08 ERA) and Justin Verlander for San Francisco (3-10, 3.75 ERA). McGreevy has been decent, though he’s been hit hard at times and tends to give up his share of baserunners and long balls—enough that strong offenses like the Giants can make him pay. Verlander, on the other hand, despite his losing record, still has the veteran stuff, he can command off-speed pitches and use his experience to keep hitters off balance. With McGreevy’s tendency to allow runs early and Verlander’s ability to surrender damage under pressure, the environment is right for a game with multiple scoring innings.

Offensively, both teams have hitters capable of big moments. St. Louis has Nolan Arenado back, and their offense has at least shown flashes of life; the Giants, for all their recent struggles, have weapons in the middle of their order that can turn a mistake pitch into a run. Add in bullpen vulnerabilities on both sides, and there’s decent chance of late-inning fireworks or breakdowns that lead to rally scoring.

All told, I expect this to be a game that creeps up on you, early scoring, some tight frames, but enough offensive bursts to push past the total. 

Jim's Play: 955. Cardinals/Giants OVER 

Milwaukee (95-61) has already locked up the NL Central and is angling for a better seed at home; San Diego (85-71) is still in the playoff hunt and obviously has a need for big late-season wins. The Padres trail the Dodgers by three-games in the NL West but hold a 5-game lead for the 2nd NL Wildcard spot.  Both clubs will come into this one with dangerous offenses and strong postseason ambitions. It’s a recipe for a low-scoring game, but probably not. Both sides should swing early and often to give themselves a chance. Starting pitching has to be the strength of both clubs, but it’s unlikely that this will be a one- or two-run game.

The pitchers are themselves some of the better arms in the game, in terms of balancing whiffs with pitchability to avoid baserunners: Freddy Peralta (Brewers) is 17-6 with a 2.65 ERA in about 195 strikeouts over 169.2 innings; Nick Pivetta (Padres) is 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA and a similarly strong strikeout total. So both starters have been very good this year, but their underlying numbers also show they can be victimized if they make a mistake, especially by lineups that can do damage to pitchers with power and plate discipline, like Milwaukee and San Diego.

A few factors line up to give offense a chance to win this game: San Diego’s lineup has had productive runs lately without many of their usual regulars, and the Padres’ bullpen is very good but it’s not infallible after starters struggle. Milwaukee bats like Christian Yelich and others have also shown they have the skill to punish even quality pitches when they make a mistake. Against that, Peralta is more likely than Pivetta to pitch into the late innings, so more late-game offense from both sides that will boost the total is a possibility.

It’s because of all these factors, stakes, good offensive clubs, two starters who are good enough to pitch into the later innings but leaky enough that offenses will have chances to score, that I’ll take the over on this one.

Jim's Play: 953. Brewers/Padres OVER 

The Lions and Ravens both enter this game at 1-1, each coming off impressive Week 2 wins. Detroit destroyed the Bears 52-21, showing they can put up big numbers, while Baltimore tore through Cleveland 41-17. Those outputs suggest both offenses are working well and capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Baltimore, especially with Lamar Jackson healthy, tends to gamble in primetime, and Detroit’s Jared Goff has been sharp, spreading the ball and producing big plays. With both quarterbacks having confidence and weapons around them, this points toward a game with multiple scoring drives rather than a defensive slog.

There are factors that push toward a higher scoring game. Baltimore’s defense is dealing with injuries: defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike is ruled out, as are linebackers like Kyle Van Noy. That weakens their ability to generate interior push and contain both the run and quick screens or slants. Detroit’s offense showed in Week 2 that when given space and time, they’ll exploit mismatches in coverage. Meanwhile the Lions have some injured defensive pieces too, but less so than the Ravens in terms of impact defenders. The injury gap, especially on Baltimore’s front, could open lanes for Detroit’s run game and play action.

Given how both clubs have performed so far, including big yardage totals and point outputs, the high over/under number feels reachable. Big plays, turnovers, and perhaps even a few defensive lapses can all contribute to pushing the total past the line.

I expect this to be a lively primetime clash, with back-and-forth scoring.

Jim's Play: 479. Lions/Ravens OVER

The Braves (73-83) are hot on a run of eight wins in a row and looking to keep up their offence at home while the Nationals (64-92) have floundered in their losses all year but shown some recent fight. Atlanta is a team cranking up on the hits and runs in recent games, particularly against Washington,  and we see a 9-4 series sweep in their last outing to bang out 16 hits in the game. The bats are getting rolling and for Washington, while they may be beaten often during the season, there is motivation to pile up runs here to climb out of last place in their division. We can take that as a recipe for a game that may tend towards more offence than a pitchers’ duel.

Atlanta on the mound is led by Chris Sale (5-5, 2.35 ERA) who has been outstanding this year in a bounce-back season. He has an average of better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings and has held in check walks and big innings. That said, his recent start against Washington is exactly the type of outing we can take here in a key spot, Sale cruised for eight scoreless innings while only allowing three hits. Washington counters with MacKenzie Gore (5-14, 4.00 ERA). Gore has strikeout stuff but he’s also had a lot of hard contact off him and has surrendered a number of runs in expected innings. He has an elevated walk rate which tends to produce traffic and scoring chances against strong lineups like Atlanta has. Gore has enough ability on a good day that he can surprise here, but his odds against a team in the Braves’ form are longer than ideal.

Sale has the potential to play tight early in the game, and the Braves might do that. However, I think Washington has enough bats to get runs in and Atlanta has an embarrassment of power bats (Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., etc.) capable of manufacturing runs in bunches. Sale has the potential to make a start last deep enough to not have Washington risk falling too far behind, while Washington is also a team that might attack early to try and get a jump on Sale and gain confidence. It’s reasonable to expect runs on both sides, which with some bullpen help late in the game means the total has room to go over.

Jim's Play: 951. Nationals/Braves OVER 

Chicago comes into this game with a 0-2 record and has already given up 73 points and nearly 700 yards of total offense in their last five quarters. The Bears’ defense is clearly shorthanded (injuries in the secondary and at linebacker have left them looking thin) and their pass rush has been a bit hit or miss so far. The Cowboys are also 1-1 but have shown they have the ability to put up a bunch of points in a hurry when their playmakers are making plays, and they are very much playmaker-dependent in the passing game. Dallas is averaging right around 30.0 points scored and 30.5 points allowed per game in this early season going, so most of their games are already playing out as shootouts. The Bears, by contrast, just have not found a lot of offensive flow yet. But when a team is put in a position where their opponent is just chucking the ball downfield against a depleted Chicago secondary, it usually has to abandon the conservative and just try to match those scores.

On paper, the total for this game is sitting around 50.5 points and for good reason. The Cowboys are going to have to try to do damage with their big playmakers, as there will be a lot of separation on the outside for those receivers against a thin secondary, and the Bears will be forced to make drives to keep pace in a game where it’s likely they will get scored on in bunches, giving offenses a lot of chances to move the ball. Add in special teams and turnover-generated swings (i.e. short fields and quick scores), and it’s not crazy to expect the fireworks on both sides to outpace the possibility of a grindy, slog-fest.

Overall, I like the Over on this one. Both teams are likely going to score on multiple drives, there are probably going to be some big plays, and the overall ability to rack up points in bunches should hit north of 50.5. 

Jim's Play: 473. Cowboys/Bears OVER 

Green Bay Packers 2-0 come into today's contest. Packers look the part so far, with offense and defense rolling to an early lead. The Packers have momentum but are dealing with injuries to key pass-catchers: wide receiver Jayden Reed is on IR after double surgery, and tight end Tucker Kraft suffered an injury in practice but is still expected to play. These absences hurt their passing attack, taking away explosive playmakers. The Browns are searching for their identity on offense as they come into today's game 0-2. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been throwing interceptions and looked anything but mobile (or safe) under pressure. But that also makes Cleveland more reliant on their run game, and trying to control the clock to keep Green Bay from getting into offensive bursts. Cleveland’s run game has shown flashes with rookie Quinshon Judkins, and these are games where the grind-it-out, ball-control approach usually wins over a shoot-out.

Green Bay will work harder for yards on offense, and without Reed and a depleted passing game, their offense may not be quite as explosive. Plus, Cleveland’s front, led by Myles Garrett, is a good defense against the pass when it comes to throwing off timing and making life tough on quarterbacks. In fact, the Browns have the top rated defense thus far. They should also keep Green Bay predictable in many situations, bunching the field together, and keeping scoring to a minimum.

Cleveland’s defense allows the fewest yards per attempt, ranking high in stopping the run, and playing disciplined coverage with few explosive plays given up. They kept Baltimore star Derrek Henry to under 30 yards rushing. And if Cleveland doesn’t have the formula to win, they may be able to at least slow the game down.

Add it all up and it’s a recipe for expecting a low-scoring game. If Cleveland can stay within reach and not get blown out, they cover. If both defenses play like they have so far, the total should be hard to reach.

Jim's Play: Take: 458. Packers/Browns UNDER

Week 3 is chock full of good early-season matchups, but the Sunday clash between the Los Angeles Rams and defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles has the feel of a must-see game. Both teams are 2-0, and both look like good bets to be in the postseason mix at season’s end. Los Angeles has made a big statement with its balanced attack, scoring in explosive ways on offense and playing stout and resilient on defense. The Eagles are a run-heavy team built around star rusher Saquon Barkley, and are looking to control the game on the ground.

Injury-wise, Philadelphia has the advantage in this matchup. The Rams will be without guard Steve Avila and defensive end Braden Fiske, but all of their offensive weapons are available, including Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua. The Eagles will welcome back tight end Dallas Goedert from the IR, but continue to be without rookie RB Will Shipley, and are potentially thin at the QB position. The rosters for both teams are very solid. However, Philadelphia has been vulnerable in its defensive backfield this season, and with Stafford’s ability to attack downfield and the supporting cast of weapons that he can throw to, the Rams are well equipped to take advantage of that weakness.

The line has the Eagles as a slight favorite, by approximately 3.5 points. The Rams should be able to keep this game close, though, with their big-play potential. Their ability to hit explosive plays in the passing game on the perimeter and attack vertically will be crucial in stretching the Eagles’ defense, and puts them in a great position to cover the spread, and even to pull the outright upset. 

As for the total, currently sitting at about 44.5, the under is the more attractive side of the bet. This could be a game where both teams establish their long, methodical drives, rather than putting up a lot of points in short order. If the Eagles are able to execute their run-heavy game plan and the Rams are able to mix some of their explosive potential with some sustained, low-risk possessions, this could be a lower-scoring affair.

The play here is for the Rams to cover the spread and the total to go under, in a likely close and physical contest between two playoff-bound teams.

Jim's Play: 461. Rams/Eagles UNDER 

The Steelers and Patriots will meet in Week 3 with both teams at 1–1, and all signs point to an explosive, high-scoring game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed 30+ points in both of their first two games, and their normally stingy defense has been prone to lapses to start the year. The Patriots have come on under a new identity with the Belichick era over. Their offense is more aggressive and more willing to push the ball downfield in the passing game. The new approach has led to more points, but it’s also put more pressure on their young, injury-prone secondary to keep up with explosive players downfield.

Pittsburgh still relies heavily on their playmakers in the passing game, and while their rushing attack has been underwhelming, the Steelers’ deep ball ability has forced defenses to play from behind and turn games into shootouts. New England’s offense is still predicated on ball control and balance, and the Patriots’ running game can set up play-action and quick passes as a result. However, without Bill Belichick and his defense-first approach dictating their game plan, the Patriots are also more than willing to trade touchdowns if they have to, and that makes the Over a viable play.

Oddsmakers have the line set at around 44.5 points, and based on how both of these defenses have played through two weeks, the number is not at all unreasonable. Pittsburgh’s defensive struggles on explosive plays in particular combined with New England’s up-tempo, aggressive attack makes the total very achievable.

Jim's Play: 463. Steelers/Patriots OVER 

Michigan (2-1) visits an undefeated Nebraska (3-0) for their Big Ten opener, and this one has the makings of a defensive struggle. Both teams come in with strong defensive resumes so far: Michigan is allowing under 15 points per game and Nebraska has also yet to give up many big scores. Nebraska’s defense has particularly impressed in limiting opponents’ aerial attacks and creating havoc in the back end. Michigan, meanwhile, hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game either, and their run-defense has held up well against various styles of attacks.

On offense, Nebraska is more explosive through the air, led by quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is completing a high percentage of his passes and has multiple receiving weapons. Michigan leans more on balance, with their rushing game led by Justice Haynes doing most of the heavy lifting. But even so, neither team has looked like a high-scoring juggernaut yet; Nebraska spreads the field but has had some drives stall inside the opponent’s 30, and Michigan tends to grind out yards without letting go of tempo too early.

With both defenses so far looking disciplined, and offenses still working out some kinks or running into resistance, the total (around 45.5-47.5 depending on sportsbook) looks ambitious. Given Nebraska’s home crowd, there will be moments of noise and pressure, especially for Michigan’s freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, that tends to hamper offensive flow, especially in tight Big Ten contests.

I expect a lower-scoring game that stays under the total.

Jim's Play: 367. Michigan/Nebraska UNDER 

Week 3 features a Bills team that enters at 2-0 and flying high while the Dolphins will look to get on the board for the first time in 2025 as they enter at 0-2. Buffalo has been solid on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen spearheading an offense that has found success in the running game and through the air with a vertical passing attack. Miami has the weapons to be explosive on offense despite the slow start, especially if Tua Tagovailoa can pick apart the Bills secondary with targets such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It won’t be easy against a Bills team that knows a divisional loss won’t be acceptable on Thursday, but Miami has the offensive firepower to keep pace and attack quickly. Add both teams have playmakers that can take over games and it’s clear the line will move in the points department.

Miami will be shorthanded on defense with several starters out and a host of players questionable. That won’t deter Allen, who will look to take shots downfield against mismatched coverage while spreading the ball around to his playmakers. Buffalo’s defense will also be without some important pieces with injuries up front and in the secondary. If Miami can keep Tagovailoa upright long enough, the Dolphins should be able to move the ball and make big plays of their own. The game should have a quick pace as the offenses look to jump out early and then put points on the board, forcing the opposing team to play catch up.

Thursday’s divisional showdown should have some urgency, which makes it hard to believe either side will slow things down for long. This will be a fast-paced game full of big plays from the quarterbacks on both sides of the ball, making OVER the play here.

Jim's Play: 301. Dolphins/Bills OVER 

Two teams looking for answers will square off in a Week 2 Monday night contest when the Houston Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Texans are aiming for redemption after a disappointing Week 1 loss, while the Bucs are coming in at 1-0 but have a couple of question marks on offense that could disrupt their production in this primetime matchup.

Houston is still going to be a little thin on offense, with Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios both out at wide receiver, and starting center Jake Andrews is also not going to be on the field, so that puts extra pressure on Nico Collins and the rest of the skill group. With the offensive line shuffling some around up front, the top priority for that unit will be to try to give C.J. Stroud some time against a Buccaneers defense that has a front seven that can get after quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. on the shelf and as a result, Mike Evans will be the clear primary option for Baker Mayfield’s passes, so it will be interesting to see if the defense will double him or play him one-on-one in coverage. Tristan Wirfs will not be protecting Mayfield’s blind side, as he is officially out, and some of the other names on the line are questionable to go, so this could be a critical issue in the battle of the trenches and if things break down against the Texans’ front, it may force Tampa Bay to lean on the ground game more or use short passes to move the chains.

Defensively, both sides will be looking to create big plays off of turnover opportunities and Houston will be in Mayfield’s face looking to force a mistake, while the Buccaneers will have to move the chains against a stout run defense and try to limit big plays from a Houston group that will be a little thin in the secondary and without Andrews at center.

This game looks to be on the lower scoring side with the offenses struggling right now. 

Jim's Play: 278. Bucs/Texans UNDER 

Game 1 of this series is shaping up to be a battle between two quality offenses. The Seattle Storm are a 7-seed with some grit and depth at the guard position, while the Las Vegas Aces went 16-0 down the stretch and feature one of the league’s most potent scorers in A’ja Wilson. The total on this game opened at 170, and my pick is for the game to go over.

Seattle is led by Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins and a number of other offensive options including Dominique Malonga and Satou Sabally off the bench. The Storm don’t have the deepest roster but have flashed some scoring punch when their guards create and get space in the paint.

Las Vegas comes in as a 2-seed with confidence at an all-time high. Wilson is in the MVP conversation after posting averages of 23.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. But she’s not the only one capable of scoring: the Aces have shooters and playmakers like Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd. Vegas is also not afraid to hoist threes: in their final game of the regular season they set a team record for 3-pointers. I expect this Aces team to play fast and to the finish in the playoffs as they’ve proven themselves capable of blowing opponents out.

Jim's Play: 629. Storm/Aces OVER

Los Angeles Rams enter the matchup with starting guards Steve Avila (doubtful) and Kevin Dotson (questionable/not at full health) on the injury report while Tennessee will be without rookie tackle J.C. Latham. The issues for both offenses start up front, as the Titans also have to break in rookie quarterback Cam Ward, which will take time.

Stafford still makes the Rams offense the better unit, but both he and Ward are bound to have some inconsistent days behind shaky lines against Titans defense that has enough talent to bring pressure at times.

There may not be too many big plays in the passing game and Ward will have to learn on the fly to find a rhythm, but a Rams defense that is stout enough to force quick throws will give the Titans signal-caller very little time to do so, also keeping drives from extending. Both the Rams and Titans also showed inefficiencies and inconsistency in their opening games. The Rams won in large part thanks to their defense and their efficiency, while the Titans offense couldn’t sustain any momentum. Rarely were there explosive plays from either team, and without those, teams will struggle to manufacture long drives in this one.

Expect this to be a physical game focused on ball control and field position where defenses and special teams will have a lot of impact. There will be punts aplenty and many more stalled drives in this one than fans might be used to, as both defenses will try to bend and not break. 

Jim's Play: 260. Rams/Titans UNDER 

The San Francisco 49ers suffered a couple of early injuries during their opener against the Seattle Seahawks but still walked away with a hard-fought victory. The Niners have to be concerned with starting quarterback Brock Purdy, who left the game with an injured toe and shoulder, tight end George Kittle is on injured reserve after a hamstring injury, and both Trent Williams and Jauan Jennings are questionable for Sunday. Mac Jones will start in Purdy’s place and will open up the offense a bit more for Christian McCaffrey and the run game while also utilizing shorter high-percentage throws to gain positive yardage on third downs.

The Saints started off Week 2 with a disappointing 20-13 loss against the Cardinals. The Saints were able to move the ball and did create opportunities within the red zone but just couldn’t finish. On defense, the Saints were the issues because they were giving up chunk plays after chunk plays, mainly on the ground. Moving the ball will be the name of the game for New Orleans in order to help out a Saints defense that has some major concerns against the run.

San Francisco is going to be in their base set more often than not, and they are going to use McCaffrey on early downs in order to dictate the tempo and help ease the pressure on Mac Jones. But for as much as San Francisco wants to run the ball, the Saints will be more than content to force Mac Jones into obvious passing downs. In order for New Orleans to have a chance to pull off the upset, they need to get their offense on track early and limit the game-changing penalties and negative plays.

Both offenses will be hard pressed to find the end zone here on Sunday. I'm taking the game to go under the total. 

Jim's Play: Take: 267. 49ers/Saints UNDER 

The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams clash Sunday, September 7, 2025, in a season opener that shapes up more like a defensive struggle than a shootout. Oddsmakers opened the total in the low-to-mid 40s, and for good reason. Both teams come in with questions on offense and check pluses on the defensive side of the ball that point directly toward the Under.

The injury report for Houston is lengthy. Running back Joe Mixon is out at least the first four games, and wideout Christian Kirk (hamstring) will also miss time. That takes away big-play weapons and leaves the Texans with unproven options on offense. Without consistent balance, the Texans will likely lean on the conservative side of the playbook against a Rams front built to pressure the quarterback.

Los Angeles appears ready to take a wait-and-see approach behind Matthew Stafford, but with the veteran’s recent back issues, look for the Rams to lean on short passing and the clock. Their defense should be able to contain Houston’s patchwork attack and dictate a slower pace of play.

If you’re looking for a trend in this game, look no further than both offenses being heavily limited and each defense being well-positioned to control the game’s tempo. The total has real value on the Under, and a score somewhere in the low to mid 30's seems reasonable. 

Jim's Play: 477. Texans/Rams UNDER 

The Steelers open the season on the road against the Jets and kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Pittsburgh has added a pair of offensive weapons this offseason with veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wideout D.K. Metcalf. While the big plays and ceiling of the group are sky-high, the timing and productivity for the offense may take a few weeks to come around. The team had the 25th-ranked defense by EPA last season, and it has already upgraded that group in free agency with Landon Collins and Daylon Mack. Additionally, while the rushing attack could be one of the best in the league, expect Pittsburgh to rely on it early in the season as they get their new quarterback up to speed.

New York, after losing Rodgers to the Steelers this offseason, now has a new quarterback of its own in Justin Fields. But again, given the questions along the offensive line and a new system still getting up to speed, expect more dink-and-dunk than boom in the early goings. The Jets’ defense should continue to be the strength of the team, and at home for the opener, expect that unit to keep New York in games even if they don’t explode on offense like many expect this year.

With two conservative defenses and a lot of question marks on both offensive lines, the recipe is in place for a methodical, low-scoring game. Long drives, conservative game plans and key stops in the red zone should keep points off the board throughout.

Jim's Play: 455. Steelers/Jets UNDER

The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals kick off their 2025 seasons with an AFC North rivalry game on Sunday, Sept. 7 at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. Game time is 1 p.m. ET, the Bengals are 5.5-point favorites and the total is 47.5 points.

A classic AFC North rivalry, Browns-Bengals has rarely been a game with elite offense. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a major upgrade in Cincinnati over the recent past, but the Bengals have lacked explosiveness in Week 1 under coach Zac Taylor. The history between these two teams is one of stout defenses and running the ball. I don’t see any reason why 2025 won’t follow the same pattern.

Quarterback Joe Flacco will make his starting debut for Cleveland, and the Browns are as close to a known quantity as any team in the league this season. Kevin Stefanski’s offense is built on ball control and efficiency - both positive factors when you consider this under looks to be inflated by the goal of projecting the new offenses in this game. The defenses should be able to limit turnovers and big-play ability, making for a slow start to the season.

Neither team is really built for high-scoring games. Cleveland averaged under 15 points per game last season and 4 of their final 5 games of 2024 were under the total. Cincinnati will score, but that divisional game, early-season rust, and a ball-control style from Cleveland could set the stage for a much lower-scoring affair than the number suggests.

I'm taking the UNDER here on Sunday as I epxect the defenses to dominate in this rivalry.

Jim's Play: 463. Bengals/Browns UNDER 

Week 2 of the 2025 college football season features an intriguing early-season nonconference meeting between James Madison and Louisville. The game kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, September 5 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, and both teams will look to get off to a fast start in the month of September.

The Dukes are back for their third full season playing at the FBS level and after two impressive years in which they overachieved, James Madison will look to take the next step by becoming a consistent winner in the Sun Belt. The return of a veteran quarterback along with an offensive line that is completely intact will allow the Dukes to slow the game down, run the ball effectively, control possession and avoid giving Louisville’s offense short fields.

On the other hand, the Cardinals want to be a legitimate ACC contender this season and they return enough playmakers to be able to make it happen. Louisville’s main advantage lies on the outside, where they have both speed and the type of versatile quarterback who can create additional yardage with his feet. The defense will also play a key role in this matchup and how it’s able to contain a methodical and ball-control oriented James Madison offense that excels at execution on third downs will be paramount.

James Madison-Louisville will be a game of two different styles. The Cardinals will come out looking to establish their tempo, stretch the field and create explosive plays through the air while the Dukes will aim to grind out as many drives as possible and turn it into a four-quarter battle. If James Madison can avoid turnovers and run the ball early, the Cardinals won’t have the benefit of short fields and will be forced to sustain long, slow drives that could put the game within reach in the second half. But if Louisville’s offense clicks, its depth and talent advantage should tell.

I look to the Cardinals to be the team that dictates the early pace and with that take James Madison out of their ground and pound offense and force them more into the air which could lead to more turnovers.  I look for this game to go over the total. 

Jim's Play: 313. J.Madison/Louisville OVER 

The Cincinnati Bengals head to Landover, Maryland, for a Monday Night Football preseason matchup against the Washington Commanders on August 18, 2025. Both teams are looking to bounce back after opening preseason losses, and with national eyes on them, this game should offer an extended look at starters on both sides.

For Cincinnati, head coach Zac Taylor has hinted that Joe Burrow and the first-team offense will get more reps than usual, aiming to sharpen timing before the regular season. Rookie pass rusher Shemar Stewart has made headlines in camp with his energy and physicality, and he’ll look to translate that into game action. The Bengals are also evaluating depth at running back and wide receiver, where young talent is pushing for roster spots behind the established starters.

Washington enters this contest needing to clean things up after being outclassed in their preseason opener. The offensive line suffered a big blow when starter Lucas Niang was lost for the season, forcing quick adjustments. Rookie linebacker Kain Medrano showed flashes despite some early mistakes, and he could see more snaps as the Commanders test their defensive depth. Offensively, the quarterback rotation will again be in focus, as Washington continues to search for consistent execution.

With both teams likely to play startes extended time, I look for early scoring and this game to go over the Total. 

Jim's Play: 431. Bengals/commanders OVER   

TCU and North Carolina play on Monday, September 1, 2025, at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET. Bill Belichick makes his college coaching debut for the Tar Heels on Monday Night Football against a Sonny Dykes-led TCU team. The Horned Frogs return plenty of starters, especially on offense, while the Tar Heels are just one of four teams with fewer than 40 returning players. TCU opened as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under near 55.5.

Josh Hoover and most of the TCU starters from last year’s efficient offense are back, and that unit should be ready to pick up where it left off. Dykes is not a coach who overhauls his team from year to year, so we know the Frogs will be balanced on offense. TCU also returns a surprisingly good amount of production on defense, so this Horned Frog squad is not being completely discounted on that side of the ball either. On the other hand, the Tar Heels are a different story. UNC only has 38 returning players from last year and brings in about 70 newcomers to the roster, including transfer quarterback Gio Lopez from South Alabama. Belichick is a master defensive coordinator, but it will take time for this new staff to build a true identity with players that have no experience playing together. 

Belichick knows he can't get into a offensive shootout with TCU and he has been a master defensive planner. I look for Belichick to keep the scoring down in this game to give his club a shot at the win. 

Jim's Play: 233.TCU/North Carolina UNDER the Total 

Texas (No. 1) and Ohio State meet in Columbus on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025, in a game that likely feels like a CFP contest the moment the ball is kicked off. The Longhorns have superstar Arch Manning making his expected debut as a full-time starter. He’ll have confidence and poise in his first real game, a bevy of weapons to lean on, and some playmakers on the perimeter. It’ll be a sharp contrast to what the Buckeyes put on the field, but he’ll be breaking in a new group on the offensive line against one of the nation’s top five defensive fronts. Ohio State, meanwhile, will roll with true freshman Julian Sayin at quarterback, and the unit as a whole will have to match the Longhorns’ upside and depth in talent on defense. Sayin has multiple all-world level receivers at his disposal, including Jeremiah Smith, but the Buckeyes may play it conservative with a young quarterback learning on the fly.

The Buckeyes and Longhorns are both known for their high-octane offenses, but those scoring machines don’t feel quite as high-powered in this one. A rebuilt Texas O-line against a stout Ohio State defense sets the stage for long, slow drives. An unproven Buckeye line with a new-look offense won’t be ready to let it all hang out in a Week 1 debut, either. Those numbers have to be curbed, along with defensive plays and big momentum swings to keep the total on the low end.

A game that will live and die on execution, turnovers and field position. Manning is mature beyond his years and will be able to handle the moment better than a true freshman. Both defenses should be more than good enough to hold up their end of the bargain as well. I'll be on Texas AND the UNDER here on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 187. Texas / Ohio State UNDER 

Take: 165. UNLV/Sam Houston State OVER 61

The Rebels travel to Houston on Friday, August 29, 2025, for an entirely new matchup as Sam Houston State has not been on the schedule for UNLV in program history. After narrowly topping Idaho State 38-31 in the season opener, UNLV is coming in at 1-0 for the series opener, led by a dominant rushing performance from running back Jai’Den Thomas (147 yards and three touchdowns on only 10 carries). Quarterback Anthony Colandrea chipped in 195 passing yards and a touchdown to round out a balanced UNLV attack. New head coach Dan Mullen gets a true road test in his Rebels debut, as this is a nice matchup for a new system. The offense should be explosive at times, especially since UNLV’s line has the size and strength to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, but overall consistency on defense will be a key in the program’s transition.

Sam Houston State enters at 0-1 after a narrow loss to Western Kentucky, 41-24, where it allowed more than 500 yards of total offense. Quarterback Hunter Watson threw for 209 yards and ran for a score, and receiver Elijah Green was the team’s top target with 61 receiving yards. New head coach Phil Longo returns to the program for the second time and is running his well-known Air Raid scheme, but some roster turnover from his first tenure and continued defensive struggles in the opener could mean it’s a work in progress early this season.

Neither defense looking all that good after one game and with UNLV having lots of offensive weapons, this one look to fly over the posted total. 

Jim's Play: 165. UNLV/Sam HOuston State OVER 

Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays square off Tuesday, August 26, 2025, at Rogers Centre. Twins starter Bailey Ober has been hit hard this season, so the matchup naturally bodes for high totals to lean on. He has been tagged for a 5.05 ERA to go with a 1.32 WHIP and a .275 batting average against. Toronto brings a starter with more consistency but not much dominance to the mound with Chris Bassitt at 11-7 on the year with a 4.18 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. In any event, both guys have given up free baserunners this season and could easily see the scoreboard light up.

Opening this series was a high-scoring affair with Toronto cruising to a 10-4 win as a favorite. The first inning was the big one for the Blue Jays as they had a four-run frame and added another four-spot in the sixth. There was some scoring with Minnesota, thanks to homers from Matt Wallner, but the starting pitching of the Twins could not hold the Blue Jays bats in check. Look at the way both sides swung the bats in Game 1 and it’s clear to see this could be a series to trend towards high totals.

With inconsistency from Ober and a Toronto side likely to run into some contact from Bassitt, the stars align for scoring on both sides. With Toronto also bringing offensive flow into this night game, the best bet is on the game going over the total.

Jim's Play: 917. Twins/Blue Jays OVER

Stampeders meet in what shapes up to be a high-tempo CFL battle, and the play here looks to be on the OVER the total. Saskatchewan’s offense has been steadily improving, with their passing attack showing more consistency and their running game capable of moving the chains. At the same time, Calgary has been leaning on Jake Maier and a quick-strike aerial game that can put points up in bunches, especially at home.

Defensively, both teams have had trouble keeping opponents off the scoreboard, particularly in the second half of games. Saskatchewan’s secondary has been burned by explosive plays, while Calgary has struggled to contain strong ground attacks. With both defenses giving up yardage and red zone chances, the opportunities for points are there.

Given the quarterback play on both sides, the weapons at receiver, and the defensive vulnerabilities, this matchup has all the ingredients of a game where possessions end in points rather than punts. Expect a back-and-forth contest that pushes this one past the total.

Take: 707. Roughriders/Stampeders OVER

The Cincinnati Bengals head to Landover, Maryland, for a Monday Night Football preseason matchup against the Washington Commanders on August 18, 2025. Both teams are looking to bounce back after opening preseason losses, and with national eyes on them, this game should offer an extended look at starters on both sides.

For Cincinnati, head coach Zac Taylor has hinted that Joe Burrow and the first-team offense will get more reps than usual, aiming to sharpen timing before the regular season. Rookie pass rusher Shemar Stewart has made headlines in camp with his energy and physicality, and he’ll look to translate that into game action. The Bengals are also evaluating depth at running back and wide receiver, where young talent is pushing for roster spots behind the established starters.

Washington enters this contest needing to clean things up after being outclassed in their preseason opener. The offensive line suffered a big blow when starter Lucas Niang was lost for the season, forcing quick adjustments. Rookie linebacker Kain Medrano showed flashes despite some early mistakes, and he could see more snaps as the Commanders test their defensive depth. Offensively, the quarterback rotation will again be in focus, as Washington continues to search for consistent execution.

With both teams likely to play startes extended time, I look for early scoring and this game to go over the Total. 

Jim's Play: 431. Bengals/commanders OVER   

The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals close out their weekend series Sunday, August 17, at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams will be looking to make a statement heading into the final weeks of the regular season.

Chicago’s starter for the series finale is Davis Martin who is 4-9 with a 4.17 ERA. He’s been solid for the Sox, logging innings when called upon, and earlier this year he tossed six solid innings against the Royals, giving up two runs and striking out seven. He’ll need to locate his fastball and slider mix to keep the Royals in check, a lineup that has found ways to produce in this series.

Kansas City goes with Ryan Bergert. He’s been a nice surprise in the Royals rotation this year and over his past two starts he’s given up four earned runs over 11 1/3 innings, showing control and efficiency with his stuff. He is 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  If he can keep it up it will enable Kansas City to hand the ball over to their bullpen and close out the game of the win. 

Kansas City enters with some momentum in their favor. The Royals have won the first two games of the series, including Saturday’s 6-2 victory, and they have moved back above .500 as they continue to fight for a postseason spot. Chicago has been overmatched on the offensive side of the ball and will need Martin to post another quality start at the very least to keep the game within reach.

Factoring in Bergert’s recent performances and the Royals playing their best baseball of the year in front of the home crowd, Kansas City has the edge. The White Sox will have to rely on their pitching to be in games, but the Royals are a well-balanced attack and have played better baseball lately.  This game looks to be lower scoring as the Sox have been anemic with the bats and the both starters have decent ERAs and should keep the scoring low. 

Jim's Play: 965. White Sox/Royals UNDER

The Chicago White Sox (44-78) take on the Kansas City Royals (61-61) on Saturday, at Kauffman Stadium. Chicago has fared better than most expect against Kansas City this season. The White Sox currently lead the Royals in the season series 5-2, with two games remaining. Their final meeting of the season comes Saturday in a game that carries no playoff implications for the Royals.

Sean Burke gets the nod for Chicago on Saturday. He is 4-9 with a 4.26 ERA and 107 strikeouts in just over 114 innings. Burke has shown flashes of brilliance at times but has been inconsistent with his performances this year. He also left his last start with an early exit, which raises questions about his stamina.

The Royals will start Michael Lorenzen, who is 5-8 with a 4.61 ERA and 85 strikeouts in nearly 100 innings. Lorenzen has proven to be capable of going deep into games and having solid outings this year. His veteran presence should be a benefit for the Royals as well.

Kansas City is currently at 61-61 on the season and sits on the cusp of a Wild Card spot in the playoff race as they sit in 5th place, four games back. This game might be the last thing either team is focusing on at the moment. For the Royals, it is do-or-die time and they have a clear advantage over a White Sox team that has been hapless at the plate all year. Chicago is in the bottom third of the league in almost every offensive category. Chicago also finds itself near the bottom of the league in batting average and runs.

The Royals have the motivation factor on their side and the White Sox have been weak with the bat all season. Expect Kansas City to take this game on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: 913. Under the Total

The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros play the second game of their set here tonight after a high scoring affair on Monday which saw the Astros take the game 7-6. Boston starts Dustin May, who carries a 4.93 ERA and allowed 3 earned runs in just 3.2 innings in his first outing with the Red Sox after being traded from the Dodgers. He’s given up more than 2.5 earned runs in three of his last four starts. Houston counters with Spencer Arrighetti, who has a 7.43 ERA and has surrendered five earned runs in each of his last two outings. Boston has seen the total go over in a strong percentage of its road games as an underdog this season. Houston’s lineup, featuring multiple veteran bats with power and consistency, is capable of producing runs quickly, especially at home. Both starting pitchers have struggled to limit damage, often exiting early and exposing their bullpens. The combination of shaky starting arms, productive offenses, and hitter-friendly conditions makes this matchup a prime candidate for runs. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring contest. Expect both teams to take advantage of the starting pitching and keep the scoreboard active from the first inning on.

Jim's Play: 917. Red Sox / Astros OVER 

The NFL comes back Thursday, July 31, 2025, with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Both the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions will be taking the field to start the 2025 preseason, and there’s something to like about this matchup betting on the over.

Preseason games are naturally conservative early, but this one has the potential to be an even more open, high-scoring affair than most. Both teams will be breaking in new faces and seeing depth chart battles at key positions, especially when it comes to the backup quarterback. That group of rookies and second-stringers often gets extended run, and that can lead to looser defenses and more explosive plays in the second half.

On offense, new Chargers coordinator Kellen Moore will be looking to test his system with the young backups and show some tempo, even if Justin Herbert sits out for this one. Easton Stick and the rookie depth should air it out a bit against a Lions defense that is still sorting out the secondary in the early going. Detroit, on the other hand, brings in a deep backfield and a wealth of wideout talent behind the starters. The Lions have also shown a willingness in past preseasons to push the pace and stretch the field even without Jared Goff under center.

With ideal weather conditions in the forecast and both teams deep enough on offense to keep things moving after the first quarter, it’s easy to see both offenses finding the scoreboard as the backups settle in. In a game where defenses simplify coverage and tackling sharpness is often lacking early, the over is the best angle to take on Thursday night’s opener.

Jim's Play: 101, Chargers/Lions OVER 

The Brewers and Dodgers square off in the finale Sunday at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers pre-All Star funk continues here in the early 2nd half of the season. After dropping Friday's game, 0-2, they were banged around on Saturday as the Brewers scored in bunches and while the Dodgers bats came more alive they couldn't keep pace, dropping their second straight to Milwaukee and losing the season series to the Brewers. 

Today we get a matchup of two left-handed pitchers: Jose Quintana for the Brewers and Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. Quintana has an ERA of 3.28 and WHIP of 1.36 in 13 starts, including allowing only one run on two hits in six innings last time out against Los Angeles. Kershaw has a 3.38 ERA in 10 starts, including a 4.73 ERA at Dodger Stadium. 

Contact is a point in the over’s favor here: Kershaw and Quintana don’t strike out a lot of batters and both lineups are hitting above average with the Brewers at .740 OPS and seventh in the majors and the Dodgers at .772 OPS and first in the majors at home with about 5.3 runs per game. Contact-based pitchers with two above-average lineups is a prime recipe for surpassing the total. 

Digging into this season’s head-to-head numbers, we see more of the same: The Brewers took a series at Dodger Stadium earlier this month and the under only cashed once in the last ten contests. Both teams hit left-handed pitching at an equal level, with Brewers at-bats nearly matching the Dodgers in batting average and wOBA against their starter. If each team can get at-bats and traffic into scoring position, then both have the ability to score.

The Dodgers bullpen didn't fare well on Saturday as the Brewers lineup continues to punish LA pitching.  Kershaw is a future Hall-of-Famer, but he will find the going tough here on Sunday vs this potent Brewers lineup. 

Jim's Play: 957. Brewers/Dodgers OVER 8.5 (Total of the Week)

The Las Vegas Aces and Dallas Wings face off on Wednesday, July 16 in a game that should be a good candidate to stay under the total. The Aces are just under .500 on the season and have been more of a defensive team than an offensive one at times this season. A’ja Wilson remains their best player, but Las Vegas has played more in the half-court this season and not played with as much pace. They don’t push the ball often and will work through Wilson on the block and run the clock down to make quality shots rather than play fast. With a more plodding pace and a system that emphasizes ball control, it is not surprising that the Aces are not an extremely high-scoring team.

Dallas has been all over the place this season but has been better at home recently, where they have won their last four games. Even when Dallas has been playing well, they are not a team that wants to play at a high pace and will slow down the game after they establish a lead. Dallas will also go through long scoring droughts when they can’t get anything to fall because they have a small rotation and not a lot of players that can put the team on their back and score. On defense, they have been bad all year, but at home, they have been able to dictate tempo better.

In the first meeting of the season, the game went to 88–84 in a slower, grind-it-out type of game than the final score suggests. Both teams were in the half court a lot, and for most of the game, neither team had a field goal for minutes on end. With the total in the 170s, that is a high expectation for teams that want to play within their sets instead of playing an up-tempo game. If Wilson is able to dictate tempo and the Dallas team can’t get it going from three, this game is likely a landing spot for under. An 85–78 or 87–80 final is likely enough to stay under the number. The under is the way to go heading into Wednesday night.

Jim's Play: 613. Aces/Wings UNDER 170 

Indiana Fever at New York Liberty here on Wednesday evening as we get a game with the under chalked on it all over again. Indiana and New York are both straight-line teams throughout the whole season. The Fever and Liberty have both allowed right around 79 points per game all year. When the bulk of your damage is in the half-court, and the teams play such a slow tempo, it usually kills the total.

Indiana’s had some success of late with keeping things in the paint and contesting shots with NaLyssa Smith inside and some overall length in the frontcourt. They tend to play slow with or without Caitlin Clark in the game. They get there with spacing and half-court offense, and they play team defense more than they play in transition or try to run in possessions. New York has some of the best scorers in the game with Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, but their team has thrived on defense all year, too. The offense is a set, deliberate attack that runs through their two stars. The Liberty and Fever have the personnel to pack the paint, and it forces both teams to play in the half-court even more. They’ve both played at or near the bottom of the league in possessions, which makes it tough to hit the total.

Jonquel Jones will give New York a defender down low and a rebounder as well. Indiana will likely have trouble scoring second-chance points. The overall pace will be slow as well. The Fever and Liberty have played below the total in six of their last nine, and this one is also in the under chalk. It should be in the mid-160s, so 78–72 or 75–70 are much more likely outcomes than the last game. The under is the play here. 

Jim's Play: 611. Fever/Liberty UNDER 164 

Golden State and Seattle meet up again on Wednesday, and early betting trends are leaning heavily under. The Vikings have continued to play to their identity as a defense-first team. They are one of the league’s worst scoring offenses but also one of the best defenses by far, frequently keeping opponents to below 80 points. One of the ways they accomplish that feat is with one of the league’s slowest paces. This allows them to limit possessions and offensive opportunities for both teams and will aid in keeping this game in the 60s or low 70s. They deploy a disciplined, switch-heavy defense designed to force teams into contested shots late in the shot clock.

Seattle, for their part, has an abundance of individual offensive talent in Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike, and Gabby Williams. However, they have frequently lacked the chemistry to create a fluid offense that takes full advantage of their weapons. They have struggled to generate consistent efficiency in the half court, often settling for inefficient mid-range jumpers and failing to create good looks at three-point range or the free-throw line. Those issues have typically come to the forefront when they are unable to create easy transition buckets and will likely be an issue again against the well-organized Valkyries defense.

These two teams also played to a relatively low final score earlier in the season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a similar result. Both sides enjoy physical, grind-it-out styles, and neither has shown much offensive consistency to pull away. Seattle often sputters against teams that grind out possessions on the defensive end, and Golden State is content to control the tempo, so this matchup is ideal for staying under. 

Jim's Play: 609. Valkyries/Storm UNDER 156

Minnesota takes on Phoenix in an afternoon contest in the WNBA on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. 

Minnesota hasn’t been scoring freely at home, where they are 8-0 SU and ATS and the total has gone under in 5 of their last 7 at Target Center (and 5 of 7 against Phoenix for that matter). Phoenix has its moments offensively, but have also not been efficient on the road (especially against this particular Minnesota team, who is the only one they’ve beaten recently, in a 79–71 game that didn’t help the total).

You have two teams with strong defensive reputations: Minnesota yields ~75 points per game at home, while Phoenix gives up ~79.5 overall. Pace will not be a factor: this is two teams that want to control tempo, run their sets and limit transition opportunities. Minnesota is decent enough in the half-court to keep the offense at bay, as is Phoenix, who get a lot of their offense on their designed possessions anyway. When you couple this with the Mercury contesting 3-pointers and the Lynx defending the line very well, you get a perfect set-up for a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.

Two teams that control the pace of the game, two teams that are excellent at home/away defensively, two teams with a trend of unders in this matchup. It’s difficult to see this game coming away with a total much over 80 by either team. This looks like a 76–70 or 78–72 kind of game to me at the end of the day, where the under squeaks through.

Jim's Play: 607. Mercury/Lynx UNDER 158

The Indiana Fever earned some positive momentum ahead of Tuesday’s contest as they trounced the Dallas Wings in the previous game. Caitlin Clark recorded a double-double and Kelsey Mitchell led the team with 21 points. Indiana has been a high-scoring offense so far, as they have tallied an average of about 84 points per game while shooting well. However, this contest could be on the slower side.

The Connecticut Sun have been a bad team throughout the season. They showed a bit of a spark in their recent close loss to the Sparks. Bria Hartley and rookie Saniya Rivers provided offense, but the Sun have still had issues with turnovers and rebounding, which have hurt them. Their defense has also been vulnerable, and this might allow Indiana to get good shots, but they will probably be on a slower pace at home.

Although Indiana has participated in several high-scoring contests recently, this game could be on the slower side and more physical. Connecticut may be able to keep the game at a low number of possessions and remain competitive with solid half-court offense. With the number in the mid-160s, the under is an interesting angle if Indiana does not play with high tempo for all 40 minutes. Indiana should win, but the under is the way to play.

Jim's Play: 601. Fever/Sun UNDER 165.5

The Cardinals and Pirates square off Monday, June 30th, with Eric Fetty on the mound for St. Louis and Andrew Henny getting the start for Pittsburgh. On paper, this matchup features two capable starters, but the recent trends suggest a different kind of game might unfold, one where the bats take over. Fetty has shown decent control at times, but he’s also been vulnerable to crooked numbers, especially when he falls behind in counts. Pittsburgh’s lineup, led by Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, has enough pop to punish mistakes, and they’ve been more productive at home.

Andrew Henny has some upside but remains unproven over a full MLB workload. He’s had trouble navigating lineups more than once, and his pitch-to-contact approach could spell trouble against a St. Louis squad that’s shown signs of waking up offensively. The Cardinals, with Nolan Gorman and Paul Goldschmidt in the middle of the order, are capable of piling on runs in bunches, particularly if Henny struggles to put hitters away.

Neither bullpen has been especially reliable this season, which adds fuel to the fire. If this game turns into a battle of relievers by the sixth inning, expect plenty of scoring chances. With two starters who could run into trouble and offenses that are due for a breakout, this game leans toward going over the total, especially if one side breaks through early and forces the other into catch-up mode.

Jim's Play: 953. Cardinals/Pirates OVER

 I’ll be previewing the WNBA action with a focus on the LA Sparks and Indiana Fever, and why I see value in betting the over.

Indiana enters this game with some confidence after a big 94–86 victory over the Seattle Storm that broke up their two-game losing streak. The win was led by Aliyah Boston with 31 points and Kelsey Mitchell scoring 26 . Caitlin Clark hasn’t been sharp yet this year (1-for-23 from three, six points in the last game) but she continues to dish and feed off-ball players which should also equate to pace and points . The Fever score 84.0 ppg on the year, and are firmly in the green in terms of their scoring differential so they should provide a steady dose of offensive upside.

LA is a bad team that has also not won much this season, but they’ve still proven capable on offense and have kept it afloat—they score 81.3 points per game on the year and all four of their last games have gone over the total . The pace has been high in their recent games as well, but their defense has not kept up and that creates the perfect recipe for an up-tempo shootout. 

Let’s also not forget about these two’s historical betting patterns too: In the last nine games, six against LA have gone over and four of six of their home games have done the same (LA has won just one of five in Indy) . LA has also gone over in 10 of their last 12 games, so the historical numbers also lean towards the over. With both teams having the scoring ability to get this game over the total combined with playing style that is set up for a back-and-forth affair filled with fast transition buckets, offensive rebounds and lots of possessions, expect the Fever’s playmakers to set the pace and the Sparks’ lack of a way to slow it down to send this one up comfortably over the total. If you’re on the over, let’s make this your game plan.

Jim's Play: 605. Sparks/Fever OVER

Atlanta Dream come into tonight's contest at Dallas averaging nearly 88 points per game and is near the top of the league in both scoring and 3-point makes. The Dream have cleared 88 four times in their last five games and are clicking offensively in the modern offense under Karl Smesko. They are stretching the floor, causing headaches for lesser defenses, and those same defenses have struggled to contain Atlanta on the road where they continue to score.

Dallas is no slouch either. The Wings are scoring about 82 points per game, good for sixth-best in the WNBA, with rookies Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and NaLyssa Smith each contributing regularly. Bueckers is averaging just under 18 points a game and Ogunbowale dropped 27 on Sunday. Even with a few injuries to their frontcourt depth, this group has remained dangerous offensively.

The total has gone over in four of Dallas’s last five games and seven of Atlanta’s last eight — even in Dallas. What ties it all together is pace. Both teams are in the top half of the league in pace and shots taken, and neither looks like they’re slowing down. Atlanta’s attack continues to find openings against porous defenses, and Dallas’s youth and balance mean they’ll continue to push no matter the opponent or the spot.

Bottom line: with two scoring offenses on the upswing, a little defensive balance, and an over-heavy recent scoring history, the over is the play entering Tuesday night.

Jim's Play: 621. ATL Dream/Dal Wings OVER 

WNBAProp

Paige Bueckers OVER Pts + rebounds+assists

It all comes down to this, Game 7, on Sunday, June 22, 2025, in Oklahoma City as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for the NBA Championship. Both teams have shown why they belong here, but the Thunder enter as heavy favorites. OKC was the NBA’s top regular-season team (68-14), and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been nearly un-guardable, averaging over 30 points per game in the Finals and leading a home-court charge that includes eight playoff wins at Chesapeake Energy Arena this postseason. Yet Indiana has refused to fold, overcoming early deficits and clinching a lopsided Game-6 win (108-91) behind clutch play from Tyrese Haliburton and spark from T.J. McConnell.

Turning to the betting angle, Jim Feist, known for his sharp player-prop instincts, has pegged this as a high-scoring affair and is backing the “over” for the total points. With both teams playing up-tempo, trading baskets, and leaning on their star guards (SGA and Haliburton) along with efficient role players like Jalen Williams, Bennedict Mathurin, and Pascal Siakam, the projection makes sense. The over/under is set around 214 to 215 points, the highest for a Finals Game-7 ever.

Why Jim playing the over? First, history favors this outcome. Every team to force a Game-7 after winning Game-6 has gone on to win, and Game-7s tend to produce fireworks. Home teams typically prevail, but road dogs bring no fear-and Indiana plays its brand of fast-paced, passing-heavy basketball that pushes tempo. Both offenses thrive under pressure: OKC pours in points with SGA and Williams combining for 70-plus in Game 5, while Indiana’s bench and Haliburton’s playmaking have unlocked efficient scoring bursts.

Second, Game-7 intensity often flips defense to offense-teams push harder, pace quickens, shots come faster. Jim figures SGA’s knack for fouls, quick baskets, and Haliburton’s clutch shot-making (ask Game-1 or Game-3) will grease the scoring wheels.

Players like McConnell, Mathurin, and Siakam. who can explode offensively if left unchecked. add to the confidence in crossing 215. The big question: can the defenses clamp down, slow things down? That would be needed to hold things under the total. 

So, Jim Feist playing the over isn't a flier. it's a bet on two high-octane teams locked in at do-or-die levels, underpinned by star talent and explosive bench depth. Expect Game 7 to be a back-and-forth, full-throttle slugfest, with the over flashing green.

Enjoy the game, it’s gonna be one for the ages.

Jim's Play: 513. Pacers/Thunder OVER

Interleague action here on Wednesday as the Reds (37-35) host the Minnesota Twins (36-36). The Reds hold the edge in this one at 37-35, fresh off eight wins in their last 10. LHP Nick Lodolo (4-5, 3.76 ERA) starts for the Reds. He’s struck out 70 in 79 innings and is punching Ks at a career-best clip . Lodolo’s home ERA is worse, but his hard stuff and consistency make him tough to hit, and the Reds are riding high offensively, eighth in runs per game and led by Elly De La Cruz’s 16 homers and.850 OPS .

RHP Bailey Ober (4-3, 4.40 ERA) takes the hill for Minnesota. He’s been less effective at missing bats this year and is allowing 1.6 homers per nine . The Twins have struggled (9-11 in their last 11) and are teetering around .500 (36–36). They still have firepower in Byron Buxton and Ty France, who could easily change the game with a bomb or two .

The market and analytics point to an over-leaning game with a total set around 9 runs. With the favorable weather and Lodolo’s volatility at home (5.85 ERA in home starts), it’s likely this game is played in a more open style, with the bullpens a chance to turn it late .

The Reds come in hot with home-field advantage and a more potent offense, while the Twins hope Ober can keep them in the game and the bats wake up. Expect a tight, high-scoring affair where a key inning could swing it under the lights.

Jim's Play: 975. Twins/Reds OVER

The Connecticut Sun travels to Indianapolis to face the Indiana Fever on Tuesday, June 17 with indications for a high-scoring matchup that will likely exceed the total. Since Caitlin Clark returned to the Fever's lineup following her standout performance against New York she averages 90.8 points per game when she plays while Indiana scores 76.4 points per game without her. The offensive boost acts as the primary driving force behind increased expectations.

This season Connecticut has struggled defensively giving up 88.2 points each game while Indiana has allowed opponents to score an average of 77.6 points. The high scoring tendencies of both teams strengthen the case for an offensive explosion because Indiana has surpassed the total in four of its last six home contests and the Sun in four out of six games overall.

The two teams combined for 168 points in their previous matchup on May 30 surpassing the previous total of 158.5. The current trend together with Indiana's scoring drive and Connecticut's defensive weaknesses strongly suggests this game will exceed the projected 165 points. The combined offensive force of Clark with the Fever together with the Sun’s variable offensive strength leads to a full-speed game featuring both teams. Indiana surpassing the spread with ease indicates we'll see an exciting matchup with a high score in Indianapolis tonight.

JIm's Play: 615. Sun/Fever OVER 

Under Friday night lights at Camden Yards Baltimore hosts the Angels. Charlie Morton toes the rubber for Baltimore with a 2–7 record and a 6.59 ERA across 15 games. The Orioles depend heavily on bullpen support and pitching efficiency because he produces five quality starts while averaging just 3.7 innings per outing. Jack Kochanowicz takes the mound for the Angels entering this matchup with a record of 3-7 alongside a 5.61 earned run average. He has delivered four quality starts and averaged 5.2 innings but his road ERA stands at a troubling 6.06.

Baltimore is experiencing offensive production challenges but managed to secure victories in two out of three games during a recent series against Detroit. The Orioles will rely on power hitters Gunnar Henderson who has 77 homers and 39 stolen bases at a .268 batting average and Tyler O’Neill who recently hit his sixth Opening Day homer in a row for offensive firepower. The Angels respond with their experienced core which consists of Mike Trout, Nolan Schanuel, Taylor Ward, Jorge Soler and newly called-up Christian Moore.

Bullpens may swing the outcome. Baltimore holds the 26th spot in reliever ERA with 4.74 and Los Angeles follows close behind at 28th with a 5.54 ERA. The game will likely become volatile in the final innings when the starting pitcher is removed early from play.

Two bad starting pitchers and two bottom ranking bullpens. I'll be on the OVER here tonight. 

Jim's Play: 913. Angles/Orioles OVER 

Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis will host Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals between Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers with the series evenly matched at one game each. Oklahoma City Thunder turned the tables in Game 2 with a commanding 123-107 win after Indiana Pacers snatched Game 1 in a nail-biting finish. Oklahoma City MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads them to maintain resilience throughout the season with an 18-2 record regardless of losses. The Thunder's offensive production tends to decrease during away playoff games compared to home games and Indiana plans to take advantage of this pattern.

Indiana's quick offensive style and excellent three-point shooting were essential to their surprising Game 1 victory. Tyrese Haliburton must excel in playmaking because his skill in generating plays for teammates takes precedence over his own scoring reputation. Indiana receives a significant home-court advantage because they maintain strong playoff performances at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with a 6-2 record straight up and 5-3 against the spread. Indiana's role players who excel at shooting three-pointers need to improve their performance because their combined long-range shooting proved pivotal during Game 1. 

The Thunder will use their tough perimeter defense to prevent Indiana from succeeding with long-range shots and push them into difficult positions. The upcoming Game 3 outcome will depend on which team best executes their strategy while leveraging their home-court advantage after proving their adaptive skills in previous games. 

I look for the Pacers to get many more points here at home and the Thunder to keep pace. I'm taking the OVER here in game 3. 

Jim's Play: 505 Pacers/Thunder OVER 228

The Major League Baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field tonight features an exciting pitching showdown and represents a crucial contest for both teams to strengthen their positions. The Arizona Diamondbacks emerged victorious in an 8-4 extra-inning game against the Mariners after spectacularly bouncing back from a late-game deficit and securing the win with a walk-off grand slam. Arizona Diamondbacks gained a strong momentum boost after their emotional win following their three-game losing streak that lasted until Monday.

Logan Evans will take the mound for Seattle and brings a notable 3-1 win-loss record together with a 2.83 ERA. Evans has reliably delivered strong performances for Seattle through his exceptional run prevention skills. Despite having an impressive ERA, Logan Evans' FIP of 4.73 indicates he might have received some luck during the season while Arizona aims to target his pitching weaknesses.

Brandon Pfaadt will pitch for the Diamondbacks with a record of 7 wins and 4 losses but a higher Earned Run Average of 5.51. Pfaadt finds himself having difficulty at Chase Field with a 6.23 ERA while he has allowed 13 home runs during his 65.1 innings pitched this season. Seattle's Cal Raleigh's current MLB home run lead of 26 makes him a key threat to exploit Brandon Pfaadt's pitching vulnerabilities. The Mariners maintain a top-half standing in OPS and run production despite an inconsistent offense which should exploit Pfaadt's recent pattern of giving up substantial earned runs.

The bullpens might become key players in the game's outcome especially after the previous night resulted in extra innings. The Diamondbacks bullpen posts a 4.57 ERA which outpaces Seattle's 3.74 mark while closer Justin Martinez left Monday's game due to elbow tightness. The already struggling Arizona bullpen faces increased pressure due to their higher number of blown saves this season. Seattle's relief pitching staff looks better prepared thanks to key pitchers including Andrés Muñoz who remain well-rested. 

This contest looks to another high scoring affair. I'm taking the over here tonight.

Jim's Play: 979. Mariners/D’backs OVER 

On June 10th, 2025, the Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream will meet again for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup as they prepare for their third matchup of the season which fans eagerly await. The current series record stands at 1-1 after both matches displayed intense competition that highlights the equal level of play between these teams. The Fever won 81-76 against the Dream on May 23rd after the Dream achieved a narrow 91-90 victory over the Fever on May 21st which demonstrates their intense rivalry.

The Indiana Fever aims to continue their positive progression after breaking a losing streak with a strong victory against the Chicago Sky while Caitlin Clark was out injured though she might play in this matchup. DeWanna Bonner's offensive and defensive contributions demonstrate the Fever's roster depth and resilience. The team has maintained a strong offensive efficiency that places them at fourth position in the WNBA while their overall net rating stands impressively at +10.8. The Fever transformed their roster during the offseason by bringing in experienced leaders and defensive players to position themselves for a strong playoff run in 2025.

The Atlanta Dream began their 2025 season strongly with a 5-3 record. Dream head coach Karl Smesko implemented modern offensive strategies that prioritize shooting and spacing to create better playing opportunities for standout players Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray. The team fortified their frontcourt with Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones during the offseason which gave their struggling 2024 offense a significant boost. The Dream began their season with promise but their defense has proven slightly weaker than the Fever's by allowing 81.0 points per game while the Fever allows just 76.4 points per game. Both teams will compete intensely to improve their standing in the Commissioner's Cup while strengthening their positions within the WNBA hierarchy.

I look for a defensive battle here today. I'm taking the UNDER. 

Jim's Play: 621. Fever/Dream UNDER 160.5 

Take: 951. Marlins/Pirates OVER 8.5 

The Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates face off on Tuesday at PNC Park where their inconsistent starting pitchers will encounter contrasting team momentum. Mitch Keller pitches for the Pirates with a 1–8 record and a 4.13 ERA spanning 76 innings. Keller has recorded at least five innings across 11 consecutive starts together with nine quality starts and sustaining a 7.2 K/9 rate while opponents hit at .257 average. Miami will start Sandy Alcantara who has a 2–7 record and a high 7.89 ERA for this season. During his most recent start Alcantara performed well but it was against a weak Rockies team which suggests his performance might not hold up against the stronger Pirates offense. 

Pittsburgh enters riding momentum. Pittsburgh built a home winning streak of four games after defeating Miami 10–3 in the first match which contributed to their five wins in six games. Their home games have been marked by strong pitching stats with a 3.84 season ERA ranking them 15th in the majors together with an impressive 2.67 ERA across their six most recent matches

Miami has endured a severe performance downturn during away games while posting one of the lowest offensive rankings in the league with their .248 batting average and 26th place slugging percentage. 

Tuesday evening is expected to provide ideal conditions with clear skies and mid-70s temperatures while light left-center breezes will provide a slight advantage to power hitters.

This one looks to be high scoring with these startes on the hill and poor bullpens. I'll take the OVER here on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: Take: 951. Marlins/Pirates OVER 

6/08 05:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET 

NBA   (503) INDIANA PACERS  VS  (504) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

503. Pacers/Thunder OVER 227.5 (5 PT / 8 ET) 

Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder is set for Sunday, June 8, at 5:00 PM PDT at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 11-point favorites, with the over/under set at 227.5 points. 

In Game 1, the Pacers pulled off a remarkable comeback, overcoming a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 111–110. Tyrese Haliburton's game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds left capped the rally, marking Indiana's fifth postseason win after trailing by 15 or more points—an NBA record in the play-by-play era.  

Despite the Thunder's strong defense and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 38-point effort in Game 1, the Pacers' balanced offense and depth have been effective. Indiana leads the playoffs in assists (28.1), field goal percentage (49.7%), and three-point shooting (40.1%). Their ability to distribute scoring responsibilities among starters and bench players like Andrew Nembhard and Obi Toppin makes them a challenging opponent. 

Given both teams' offensive capabilities and the high-scoring nature of Game 1, betting on the over in Game 2 is my total play in this game.

Jim's Play: OVER the Total

The Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles open their three-game series on Friday, June 6, 2025, at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The game begins with first pitch at 7:05 PM PDT.

Currently standing at 25–36 in their season record the Orioles are on a six-game winning streak which involved sweeping the Seattle Mariners. The Orioles will start right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer against the Athletics. Kremer has a 5–5 win-loss record and posted a 4.70 ERA across 12 starts this season. During his latest appearance he managed six innings with one run scored while striking out seven against the Chicago White Sox. Batters against him have achieved a .278 average while he has given up 10 home runs this season.

The Athletics secured a decisive 14–3 victory over the Minnesota Twins which ended their four-game losing streak while improving their record to 24–40. Oakland will start a game with left-handed pitcher JP Sears on the mound. Sears holds a 4–5 record with a 5.05 earned run average across his 12 games started. During his latest game he pitched five innings while allowing two earned runs against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Cedric Mullins leads the Orioles' offensive efforts with 10 home runs and 31 RBIs while maintaining a .232 batting average. Tyler Soderstrom leads the Athletics' offense with his production of 14 home runs and 42 RBIs while batting at .257.

The Baltimore bullpen has demonstrated recent progress by achieving a 3.00 ERA during their past 10 games whereas Oakland's bullpen has experienced challenges with a 7.53 ERA over the same time frame.

Niether starter is all that good and the A's pen has been horrible. I'm taking the OVER in this game. 

Jim's Play: 973. Orioles/A’s OVER 11 

Angel Stadium will host a three-game series between the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels starting on Friday, June 6, 2025. The game will begin at 6:38 PM PDT.

Right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller will start for the Mariners who stand at 32 wins and 29 losses. Miller secured two wins and four losses while accumulating a 5.36 ERA across 43.2 innings pitched. Through this season, he has given up 26 earned runs and walked 22 batters while striking out 37 opposing players. On April 29, 2025, Miller pitched five innings against the Angels while keeping opponents scoreless and striking out six.

The Angels will respond by starting veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks. Across 59 innings Hendricks has a 2–6 record with a 5.34 ERA. The pitcher has surrendered 35 earned runs while issuing 18 walks and tallying 39 strikeouts. During Hendricks' recent start against the Mariners he gave up only one earned run in six innings and achieved seven strikeouts.

Cal Raleigh serves as the Mariners' offensive leader with a .268 batting average along with 24 home runs and 49 RBIs. Shortstop J.P. Crawford maintains a .283 batting average and accumulates five home runs with 22 RBI totals. Taylor Ward leads Angels' offense with 17 home runs and 42 RBIs while maintaining a batting average of .214. First baseman Nolan Schanuel delivers a .275 batting average along with 23 runs batted in.

The Mariners have secured more than 57% victories during their away games. The Angels have experienced difficulties in home games with a loss rate of 60%. I expect both teams to get tehir share of runs tonight. I'm taking the over in this one. 

Jim's Play: 971. Mariners/Angels OVER 9 

6/05 05:30 PM PT / 8:30 PM ET  

NBA   (501) INDIANA PACERS  VS  (502) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Take: 501. Pacers/Thunder OVER 230.5

Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals tips off Thursday night in Oklahoma City, where the top-seeded Thunder host the Indiana Pacers. The Thunder are heavy favorites, but the Pacers have been defying expectations all postseason. For bettors, this game presents an intriguing opportunity: Backing a big dog or favorite play or playing the over/under on the total points. 

The Thunder boast the league's best record at 68–14 and have dominated the playoffs with a 12–4 run. Led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 32.7 points per game during the regular season, Oklahoma City has been nearly unbeatable at home, going 8–1 in the playoffs with an average margin of victory of 21.3 points.  

However, the Pacers have been on a remarkable journey. After a 10–15 start to the season, they turned things around, finishing with a 50–32 record. Indiana's offense, orchestrated by Tyrese Haliburton and bolstered by Pascal Siakam, has been potent, leading the league in assist percentage and true shooting percentage. Their depth and resilience have been evident throughout the playoffs, culminating in a 125–108 victory over the Knicks to clinch their first Finals appearance since 2000.  

The over/under is set at around 230.5 points. Given both teams' offensive capabilities and recent trends, playing the over seems like a solid bet. The Pacers have consistently hit the over in their playoff games, and the Thunder's home games have been high-scoring affairs. 

In summary, I belieive the likelihood of a high-scoring game will be what we see here in games one. I'm taking the OVER the total in this one. 

Jim's Play: 501. Pacers/Thunder OVER 230.5

Tonight at 8:00 p.m. the Phoenix Mercury will battle the Minnesota Lynx at the Target Center in Minneapolis. ET. The Commissioner's Cup matchup brings together the undefeated Lynx (7-0) who host the Mercury (5-2) after their recent 74-71 defeat to Minnesota.

Minnesota keeps advancing their strong season performance through MVP candidate Napheesa Collier who produces an average of 26.8 points per game while making significant contributions on both offense and defense. Early in the season the Lynx have proven themselves formidable because they possess both strong offensive and defensive capabilities.

Phoenix enters a transitional season with Diana Taurasi retired and Brittney Griner having departed. The Mercury brought in crucial team members Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas as part of their roster restructure. Satou Sabally stands out as Phoenix's top scorer by averaging 21.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Thomas Natasha Mack and Kahleah Copper will miss tonight's game because of injuries.

Both teams should get plenty of points in this one tonight. I'll be on the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 629. Phx Mercury / Min Lynx OVER 

On June 1st, 2025 at the Chase Center in San Francisco the Minnesota Lynx will compete against the Golden State Valkyries. Both teams launch their 2025 WNBA Commissioner's Cup season with this game.

The Minnesota Lynx begin the game with a flawless 6-0 record demonstrating strong defensive capabilities alongside a well-rounded offensive approach. The team averages 84.2 points per game while permitting 76.3 points per game from opponents. Napheesa Collier's current status is questionable because of a knee issue and Kayla McBride's recent 20-point performance in a win against Phoenix Mercury have both been vital to their team's achievements.

The Valkyries who are playing their first season currently stand at a 2-3 record. Their recent performance demonstrated potential when they lost to the New York Liberty by just 82-77. Janelle Salaun who is playing her rookie season stands out with averages of 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. The team faces offensive challenges with a 73.8 points per game average and a three-point shooting percentage of 27.7%.

The Lynx have a great defense and the Valkaryies have struggled on offense. That will have me taking this game under the total. 

Jim's Play: 625. Lynx/Valkaryies UNDER 161.5

Saturday, May 31, 2025 will feature a crucial Game 6 between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis during the Eastern Conference Finals. The Indiana Pacers hold a 3-2 series lead while pursuing their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000 but must face the New York Knicks who need a Game 6 today and Game 7 victory at Madison Square Garden to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals. 

The Knicks secured a decisive 111-94 win during Game 5 with Jalen Brunson scoring 32 points while Karl-Anthony Towns added 24 points and 13 rebounds to their performance. Their performance played a key role in preventing elimination and restored momentum for New York. Throughout the series Brunson consistently displayed offensive dominance by averaging 33.0 points per game.

The Pacers showed weakness in Game 5 when they turned the ball over 20 times and couldn't stop the Knicks' strong attack. Despite his Game 4 triple-double performance Tyrese Haliburton recorded only eight points and six assists during Game 5. Despite the Game 5 setback, Haliburton remains confident about the team's ability to recover because of their demonstrated resilience and preparedness to face pressure situations.

The Pacers displayed exceptional home performance this season with a 29-11 record while scoring an average of 115 points across their two home games in this series. The Pacers aim to use their home-court advantage and fan support to finish the series.

The Knicks will need to keep their defensive intensity while reducing turnovers to prolong the series. The team needs to reduce turnovers through simplified play according to Coach Tom Thibodeau who emphasized that risky passes have been a consistent problem.

The knowledge of what's at stake ensures that Game 6 will be an intense matchup between both teams. The series outcome will depend on Brunson and Haliburton's performances combined with each team's execution of their strategies.

The Pacers are a high scoring team on their home court and that means the Knicks will need to keep up on Saturday. I'm taking the OVER here on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: Take: 555. Knicks/Pacers OVER 219.5

The Chicago Sky face the Dallas Wings once more on Saturday, May 31 at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas when the game tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Sky earned their season debut victory against the Wings with a narrow 97–92 win in Chicago before facing them again two days later.

Kamilla Cardoso led Chicago to victory in Thursday's game with 23 points and eight rebounds while Courtney Vandersloot provided nine assists. The Sky achieved victory with key contributions from their frontcourt duo Cardoso and Angel Reese who secured nine rebounds. The Sky must continue to uphold their defensive intensity to shut down Dallas's prolific offense.

Dallas's record stands at 1–5 and they face a major setback because rookie guard Paige Bueckers is sidelined in the WNBA's concussion protocol and will not play in the upcoming two games. Bueckers provided essential contributions to the team by averaging 14.7 points and delivering 6.7 assists along with 4.5 rebounds per game. The Wings' offense will now depend heavily on All-Star guard Arike Ogunbowale who had an impressive 37-point performance during Thursday's defeat because of Bueckers' absence. The Dallas Wings need Myisha Hines-Allen and DiJonai Carrington to elevate their performances while Bueckers is sidelined.

Huge loss for the Wings with Bueckers missing today's contest. And as such, I don't expect to see much offense from Dallas here. I'm taking this game UNDER.

Jim's Play: 617. Chi Sky / Dal Wings UNDER 173.5

Tonight's matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse between the Indiana Fever and the Connecticut Sun features both franchises seeking to improve their recent poor performances. Indiana goes into the match with two wins and three losses after losing back-to-back games including a tight defeat against the Washington Mystics with a score of 83-77 last Wednesday. The Fever must adapt to playing without Caitlin Clark because her left quadriceps strain has forced her to sit out. Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston have stepped up to fill the void with Mitchell averaging 17.0 points and Boston producing 16.8 points and 10.0 rebounds each game. Coming off the bench in their defeat to Washington, DeWanna Bonner who joined the team from the Sun scored 21 points.

The Sun currently stand winless at 0-5 following their 109-87 loss to the Dallas Wings. Connecticut ranks last in scoring with 71.8 points per game while allowing 88.2 points per game which puts them near the bottom in defense. Tina Charles leads the team with 17 points and 6.6 rebounds each game while Marina Mabrey contributes 14 points and 3.2 assists per match.

With Clark out for the Fever and the poor offense of the Sun, I look for this game to be lower scoring. I'll take the UNDER here tonight. 

Jim's Play: 609. Sun/Fever UNDER 157.5

Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves will take place at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. Standing at a 3-1 lead in the series, the Thunder need only one more win to reach the NBA Finals since their last appearance in 2012. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, with the game airing on ESPN.

After enduring a 42-point defeat in Game 3 Oklahoma City achieved a close 128-126 win in Game 4 which demonstrated the determination and skill of their youthful team members. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 40 points with 10 rebounds and nine assists to lead his team while Jalen Williams scored 34 points and Chet Holmgren added 21 points along with seven rebounds and three blocks.

To prolong the series Minnesota must receive extraordinary performances from their leading players while facing elimination. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle need to improve after scoring only 16 and five points respectively in Game 4. The Minnesota bench shined during their last match as Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo scored a total of 44 points together.

Oklahoma City holds an 8.5-point advantage while the total points projection stands at 220.5. Oklahoma City stands strong with their depth and defensive capabilities while benefiting from home-court advantage yet the Timberwolves have demonstrated their ability to perform well when facing challenges. I'm turning to the total here tonight as I look for this game to get over the posted number. 

Jim's Play: 549. T’Wolves/Thunder OVER 220.5

The Eastern Conference Finals will continue with Game 4 between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. 

Indiana Pacers hold a 2-1 advantage in the current seven-game series. The Pacers triumphed in Games 1 and 2 with a 138-135 victory followed by a 114-109 win. The Knicks managed to close the series gap by winning Game 3 with a score of 106-100.

The Knicks showed exceptional determination in Game 3 by turning around a 20-point disadvantage to achieve their inaugural postseason victory at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Since 1997 no team in the play-by-play era has managed three playoff victories from deficits of 20 points or more like the Knicks did in this game.

Karl-Anthony Towns scored 20 fourth-quarter points to make a key contribution to the comeback. However, a challenge persists: Whenever Jalen Brunson and Towns share time on the court together their defensive performance often results in negative outcomes.

The Pacers under Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam leadership look to recover from their Game 3 second-half breakdown. Indiana relies on Haliburton to lead their offensive efforts after he took personal responsibility for their defeat.

Indiana forward Aaron Nesmith remains undecided for Game 4 participation because of a right ankle injury he suffered during Game 3. Nesmith delivered his best game with a career peak of 30 points in Game 1 but has struggled to maintain that level of scoring in later matches.

The Knicks perform better defensively during road games which have a defensive rating of 110.1 compared to their home games with a rating of 114.6. Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart credit their achievements to the increased focus and team unity they build in challenging environments.

I once again look for the Knicks to flex their defensive muscles here on Tuesday. In a slower paced game I like the UNDER in this one. 

Jim's Play: 547. Knicks/Pacers UNDER 

First pitch for tonight's baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field will be at 7:40 PM ET. The Red Sox look to break their current three-game losing streak while Milwaukee looks to continue their winning streak by building momentum following their narrow 3-2 victory in Monday’s series opener.

Right-hander Cooper Criswell is scheduled to start for the Red Sox after posting a 10.38 ERA through 4.1 innings this season. Aaron Civale represents Milwaukee's response with a 9.00 ERA accumulated over seven innings during the 2025 season. Both pitchers are working to recover from their initial-season challenges which may lead to a high-scoring game between them.

Rafael Devers leads Boston's offense with a batting average of .288, along with scoring 12 home runs and 48 RBIs. The team's offensive performance remained erratic during Monday's defeat with only one hit from nine at-bats with runners in scoring position. Rookie catcher Carlos Narvaez stands out by maintaining his hitting streak at eight games while achieving a .414 batting average during that period.

Jackson Chourio ignited Milwaukee's start with his first career leadoff home run during Monday's game. Rhys Hoskins leads the Brewers in batting average with his .287 mark which strengthens their offensive lineup. Despite his general hitting difficulties Christian Yelich manages to maintain a nine-game hitting streak against the Red Sox.

This matchup becomes critical for both teams since they both stand near a .500 win-loss record as they move toward the halfway point of the season. The game's result depends on which bullpen performs better during the middle and late innings while both starting pitchers search for stability.

Jim's Free play: OVER the Total.

Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals will see the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compete tonight at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with the Pacers leading the series 2-0 based on their narrow wins in New York. 

The Pacers maintained their high offensive output from the regular season where they averaged 117.4 points per game into the postseason. The quick offensive approach led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam has proved dominant against their opponents. Indiana scored 138 points in Game 1 while their Game 2 performance resulted in 114 points with Siakam achieving a playoff career-best 39 points. The Pacers' top-tier ability to operate quickly on offense combined with their scoring proficiency makes betting on the over appealing.

The Knicks depend on Jalen Brunson who scored 43 points in the first game and 36 points in the second game. The Knicks maintained close scores in their games and showed effective offensive performance despite their defeat. The Knicks demonstrate strong performance in playoff road games with a 5-1 record showing they can succeed without playing at Madison Square Garden. The potential for high scoring from both teams together with past game totals of 138-135 and 114-109 makes betting on the over a sound decision.

Indiana's explosive offense combined with New York's scoring potential led by Brunson indicates that Game 3 will likely produce high total points. The over on 223.5 points emerges as a strong wager based on current trends and team performances.

Jim's Play: 543. Knicks/Pacers OVER

The Los Angeles Sparks and Chicago Sky will compete at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday night while both teams aim to overcome their initial poor performance this season. The Chicago team begins at an 0–2 record while Los Angeles holds a 1–3 standing. Point spreads show the Sparks as 4.5-point favorites but the more interesting betting option might be the total points line which stands at 159.5. The under looks like a smart choice because both teams struggle offensively.

The Chicago offense produces only 66 points per game while shooting poorly from the field at 32.4%, the lowest percentage in the league. Angel Reese has shown difficulty in her first two games by maintaining a shooting percentage of 23% and committing 10 turnovers. The Sky need to redefine their offensive strategy after losing essential scorers Kahleah Copper and Chennedy Carter during their roster changes. The new players Courtney Vandersloot and Ariel Atkins are in the process of adapting to their roles while rookie Hailey Van Lith learns to navigate the professional game.

The Sparks have improved their offensive performance but are still trying to find their game rhythm. Although they score an average of 79.5 points per game their performance remains erratic because forward Cameron Brink has been sidelined with an injury. Kelsey Plum scores 26.7 points per game to lead the team while Dearica Hamby adds 16.3 points and nine rebounds each game. The Sparks have faced challenges in discovering dependable scoring alternatives beyond their two leading scorers.

Past games between these two teams typically resulted in lower point totals. Ten out of their past 14 encounters saw totals fall below expectations and their most recent six games in Los Angeles concluded with totals that went under. The historical pattern and current scoring difficulties faced by both teams support the decision to bet the under on 159.5 points.

Jim's Play: 619. Chi Sky / LA Sparks UNDER 

The Michelob ULTRA Arena will be the site of tonight's game between the Las Vegas Aces and the Washington Mystics which starts at 10:00 p.m. ET. Two strong offenses will compete tonight in a game that points towards scoring above the estimated total of 167 points.

The Mystics (2–1) have demonstrated strong offensive performance by scoring an average of 86 points per game and maintaining shooting percentages of 46.6% from the field and 39.6% from three-point range. Brittney Sykes maintains the top position for the team by scoring an average of 26.3 points and making 5 assists per game which includes a standout 30-point effort during their recent defeat against the Golden State Valkyries. The rookie duo Kiki Iriafen along with Sonia Citron have made important contributions to their team with averages of 13.7 and 14.7 points per game respectively.

The Aces (1–1) recently achieved a commanding 87–62 win against the Connecticut Sun. The reigning MVP A'ja Wilson is producing an average of 26.5 points and 13 rebounds in each game. The win featured Jewell Loyd scoring 20 points which demonstrated the team's strong offensive lineup. The Las Vegas team has demonstrated strong scoring capabilities by averaging 82.5 points per game while delivering substantial offensive performances.

The combined offensive strengths and recent game performances make the over bet on total points a sound choice for this evening's matchup.

Jim’s Play: Over the Total.

The New York Knicks welcome the Indiana Pacers to Madison Square Garden for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight at 8:00 PM ET. The Pacers took a 1–0 series lead after defeating the Knicks 138–135 in overtime by surmounting a 14-point deficit with less than three minutes to go. The Pacers mounted their comeback thanks to Aaron Nesmith's six fourth-quarter three-point shots and Tyrese Haliburton's 31 points with 11 assists.

The Knicks look to bounce back from their Game 1 defeat behind Jalen Brunson's 45 points and Karl-Anthony Towns' 35 points with 12 rebounds. Head coach Tom Thibodeau stressed the importance of learning from late-game errors while maintaining constant focus during each game.

This postseason opponents have struggled to defend Indiana's quick offensive plays directed by Haliburton. The Pacers have shown exceptional execution when facing high-pressure situations throughout their playoff campaign.

I still believe these teams will look to slow the pace here tonight, especially by the Knicks who don’t want to get into another run and gun showdown like they did in game one.

Jim’s Play: Under the Total 

The Milwaukee Brewers play against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at PNC Park beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET. The matchup between the teams’ top pitchers predicts a tight scoring game expected to stay below seven runs.

Entering the game with a 5–3 win-loss record and a 2.59 earned run average, Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta prepares to pitch. He kept his earned run total to one run throughout five innings in his most recent game. Peralta demonstrates strong defensive performance by placing in the 86th percentile for hard-hit rate allowed during the current season.

Paul Skenes from Pittsburgh has a 3–5 record with a 2.44 earned run average. Skenes has demonstrated dominance as opponents have managed to hit only .190 off him. During his most recent appearance he pitched eight innings and gave up one earned run while striking out nine batters.

Both offenses have struggled this season. The Brewers maintain the 25th position in batting average at .230 while their slugging percentage stands at .354 for 28th in the league. The Pirates hold the lowest run position in the league while their batting average stands second to lowest at .219.

The matchup tonight should favor an under 7-run total prediction because both teams display strong starting pitching yet face challenges with underperforming offenses.

Jim’s Play: UNDER the Total (Full Game)

The Texas Rangers will play against the New York Yankees in the final game of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, May 22, 2025, with the first pitch at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Yankees won the first two games by clinching with a thrilling 4–3 walk-off on Wednesday night after Jasson Dominguez hit a ninth-inning home run.

Thursday's pitching matchup features two seasoned right-handers: Thursday's starting pitchers will feature Nathan Eovaldi representing the Rangers while Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees. Eovaldi enters the game with four wins and two losses along with a remarkable 1.61 ERA from 61.1 innings as proof of his skill in preventing opponent runs. Carlos Rodon has compiled a 5–3 win-loss record with a respectable 3.17 ERA through his season performances.

Aaron Judge leads the Yankees' powerful offense with his outstanding performance of a .402 average and totals of 16 home runs and 44 RBIs. Cody Bellinger made a major impact by hitting an important home run during the game on Wednesday. Jake Burger delivered two solo home runs last game while Sam Haggerty contributed with another homer as part of the Rangers' recent offensive output.

Each team wants to utilize their advantages during this final series match. The Yankees want to finish with a series victory and lengthen their winning run while the Rangers work to prevent a series defeat and build momentum during their road journey. 

With two strong pitchers on the hill I look for another low scoring contest here on Thursday. 

Jim’s Play :   907. Rangers/Yankees UNDER 7.5

The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks renew their storied rivalry tonight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Madison Square Garden, tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT. This marks the ninth playoff meeting between the two franchises, with the Pacers holding a 5–3 edge in prior series. The Knicks won two of the three regular-season matchups this year, including a commanding 123–98 victory in the opener. 

New York enters the series riding high after a decisive six-game triumph over the defending champion Boston Celtics. Jalen Brunson has been the engine of the Knicks' offense, averaging nearly 29 points and over seven assists per game in the postseason. Karl-Anthony Towns has provided a strong interior presence, averaging 19.8 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. The Knicks' supporting cast, including OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart, has contributed significantly, with Hart notably recording a triple-double in the series-clinching win over Boston.  

The Pacers arrive in New York after a convincing five-game series win over the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Tyrese Haliburton has been instrumental, averaging 19 points and nine assists per game, and delivering in clutch moments. Pascal Siakam brings championship experience and versatility, averaging 20.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Myles Turner adds a defensive anchor, contributing 16 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks per game.  

Tthe Pacers' depth and offensive versatility could pose significant challenges for the Knicks. The game is expected to be a physical battle, reminiscent of the intense matchups between these teams in the 1990s.  

With both teams aiming for their first NBA Finals appearance in over two decades, tonight's game sets the stage for what promises to be a thrilling series. 

Jim is taking the UNDER here in game one.  Maybe nerves, physicality of the game should contribute to a lower scoring game one. 

Jim’s Play: Under the Total. 

Tonight at Yankee Stadium the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees will play the second game of their three-game series starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees secured a 5–2 victory on Tuesday which extended their winning streak to nine out of their last 12 games and improved their standing to 28 wins and 19 losses. Texas needs to level the series and is relying on their top pitcher to do so.

The Rangers named Jacob deGrom their starting pitcher as he returns to New York where he previously won two Cy Young Awards during his time with the Mets. At 36 years old deGrom has modified his pitching approach by reducing his velocity to maintain his health while maintaining effectiveness with a 4–1 record and 53 strikeouts across 51 innings alongside a 2.29 ERA. Aaron Judge continues to lead the Yankees' dynamic lineup after hitting another home run Tuesday and achieving a .403 batting average with 16 home runs and 43 RBIs.

The left-handed pitcher Ryan Yarbrough who is making his third start this season represents the New York team against deGrom. Yarbrough has maintained a 1–0 record with a 3.70 ERA across 24.1 innings and demonstrated reliability whenever he has been needed. The Yankees' offense which leads the league with 5.78 runs per game will strive to give him strong backing.

We get two excellent starters here tonight. Plus the Rangers not hitting the ball and not scoring many runs either. That should lead to this game going under tonight. 

Jim’s Play:  967. Rangers/Yankees UNDER

5/20 03:40 PM PT / 6:40 PM ET 

MLB   (903) CINCINNATI REDS VS (904) PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Take : 903. Reds/Pirates UNDER 

The game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Tuesday should remain competitive and low scoring due to a strong pitching match-up.

The Reds will have Nick Martinez (2-4, 3.66 ERA) take the field as their starting pitcher. Martinez has shown consistent pitching by allowing only four home runs through 51.2 innings and maintaining control with just 11 walks. He demonstrated effective management of opposing lineups during games.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.02 ERA) who will face Nick Martinez on the mound. Bailey Falter delivered outstanding performances throughout May by surrendering only one run across 16.2 innings which translated to a 0.54 ERA for that month. Bailey Falter has found his rhythm as demonstrated by his recent game performances which show his ability to minimize early-game damage.

With 141 runs scored and a .217 team batting average the Pirates occupy the last place in MLB for offensive production. The team has allowed opponents to score four or fewer runs for 24 consecutive games. Although the Reds have shown improved play they frequently begin games slowly and depend on late-game comebacks for success.

Based on the current strong pitching performances and the Pirates’ offensive difficulties I will choose the under option for this matchup. The Pirates deliver excellent pitching but their offensive output will remain minimal during this low scoring game. 

Jim’s Play: 903. Reds/Pirates UNDER

The Minnesota Lynx and Los Angeles Sparks are set to face off on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Both teams enter the game with 1-0 records, making this early-season matchup a compelling test for two squads with contrasting trajectories. 

The Lynx, fresh off a 99-84 road win over the Dallas Wings, continue to build on the momentum from their 2024 WNBA Finals appearance. Napheesa Collier led the charge with 34 points, while Courtney Williams added 25 points and nine assists. Minnesota's offense was efficient, shooting over 50% from the field and recording 27 assists. Defensively, they held Dallas to 45% shooting and won the turnover battle.  

The Sparks, under new head coach Lynne Roberts, began their season with an 84-67 victory against the Golden State Valkyries. Kelsey Plum, acquired in a major offseason trade, scored 37 points in her debut, including 26 in the second half. Dearica Hamby and Rickea Jackson contributed 14 and 13 points, respectively. Los Angeles forced 22 turnovers and limited the Valkyries to 36% shooting.  

This game presents a contrast between the Lynx's established core and the Sparks' revamped roster. Minnesota's continuity and defensive prowess will be tested against Los Angeles' new offensive schemes and Plum's scoring ability. The matchup between Collier and Plum could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

I’ll take this game over after both teams scored in the 80’s in their first games. 

Jim’s Play: 615. Lynx/Sparks Over