Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -125 | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
The Royals are 9-0 on the ML when their starter Danny Duffy starts as a home favorite when he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start and the Royals won.DUFFY is 8-2 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)CLEVELAND is 7-15 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 3 seasons. Duffys last two starts vs the Indians were shutout wins . Rinse and repeat. Play on the Royals to win |
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05-06-21 | Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 6.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP2-0, 1.80 ERA, 40 SO)has delivered five consecutive quality starts, the sort of stability that's crucial for a team fighting so many injury issues. He's allowed only one earned run in 18 career innings against the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler(RHP2-2, 3.49 ERA, 41 SO) suffered from some bad defense in a long first inning Saturday against the Mets, but he recovered and did not allow another for six more innings. Wheeler is 1-1 with a 2.90 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers. Look for both these strong hurlers to long and strong today and for this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Brewers starter WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.3 rpg scored.
The Brewers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 when Brandon Woodruff starts when the bullpen allowed more runs than he did in his last start. Play UNDER |
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05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -121 | 9-4 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
After losing 6 straight to the Jays the As have come back and won the last two meetings and Im betting the third in a row comes today behind the arm of Bassist. Chris Bassitt (RHP 2-2, 3.93 ERA, 36 SO) is racking up strikeouts at a high rate, recording at least eight punch-outs in each of his last three starts.The Blue Jays are 0-16 SU since May 04, 2019 in not the first game of a series as a road dog after they allowed 6 or fewer hits. OAKLAND is 9-1 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. OAKLAND is 15-3 against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons. Play on the As to win |
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05-05-21 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 242 | 134-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Washingtons offense remains consistent and explosive and there have been few to any regressions after big offensive outputs like the one they just had against Indiana winning a 151-141 slugfest. The Wizards rank 1st in pace 4th in ppg offense and 29th in ppg defense, Needless to say their style of hoops bases its successes and failures on run and gun basketball with a no prisoners attitude on display and nothing will change here tonight vs a Bucks team that can put a bucketload full of points on the board as well, via a offense that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the NBA , behind the 3rd ranked pace and 21st ranked ppg. defense . After playing last night, the Bucks will be on tired legs, so Washington will push with extreme prejudice, which Im betting leads to an all out back and forth tilt that will see very little defense played. First team to 130 points wins. WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.2 ppg going on the score board. Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this total .Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-0 in Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-05-21 | Grizzlies -3 v. Wolves | 139-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis has struggled of late, losing 4 of their L/5 while Minnesota with Towns back int he lineup are playing much better winning 5 of their L/6. However despite of the divergence in fortunes recently the Grizzlies matchup well vs the Wolves, according to my power rankings and deserve respect here as short favs. Minnesota ranks 26th in the league SRS -6,71 , while Memphis is ranked 13th in SRS, with a +0.96 mark. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. MEMPHIS is 11-3 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 20-9 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Grizzlies to cover |
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05-05-21 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 227.5 | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Atlanta ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency while the Phoenix Suns rank 7th in offensive efficiency and from a head to head stand point Im betting on that efficiency and lack of it on the Hawks part will lead us over the total in this contest. ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 238.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 8-0 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 233.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average 232.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 84-54 OVER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 56-35 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +115 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Minnesota beat the Vegas 6-5 a couple of nights ago here and are viable underdogs to cash two in a row vs the Golden Knights. Note: Wild are 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Wild enter this game in top form and are 9-2 in their last 11 overall and deserve respect here as home underdogs. MINNESOTA is 10-3 ATS in home games against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game this season. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS after allowing 3 goals or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NHL Road teams against the money line (VEGAS) - revenging 4 or more losses versus opponent in last 2 years, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 5-45 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate. Golden Knights are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Play on Minnesota Wild to win |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
The Nationals went into their bullpen yesterday and will be a little wiped today leaving them susceptible to being beaten up on offensively by the Braves. The Nationals are 11-0 OVER L/11 when Erick Fedde starts after they used 5+ pitchers yesterday. Atlantas starter FRIED is 14-4 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored.WASHINGTON is 17-6 OVER against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Play on the OVER |
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05-05-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Dbacks starter Luke Weaver(RHP1-2, 4.91 ERA, 23 SO) was not sharp in his last start against the Rockies, as he allowed three runs over four innings in a no-decision. Over his past three starts, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA and Im betting he will be cannon fodder again today vs a under rated and sometimes explosive Miami batting order. Meanwhile, Miami starter Pablo Lopez despite of some good numbers, does not matchup well vs a Arizona batting order that is averaging 5.4 rpg, and has show spark of late putting 21 runs on the board in their L/3 tilts. Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. MIAMI is 93-69 OVER in night games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 9.3 rpg scored. Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. |
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05-05-21 | Orioles +111 v. Mariners | 6-0 | Win | 111 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
John Means (LHP 3-0, 1.70 ERA, 38 SO) was dominant once again in his last outing, beating the A's with seven innings of two-run ball. The lefty ace owns a 1.70 ERA across 6 starts this season and is a value proposition at this price. Mariners are 13-27 in their last 40 games vs. a left-handed starter.Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record./ BALTIMORE is 10-5 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. Play on Baltimore Orioles on the ml |
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05-04-21 | Raptors v. Clippers -9 | 100-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
LA has taken a breather from their heavy schedule of late with a few days off and will be fresh and ready to get back on track after suffering 3 straight losses. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game against quality opposition, which makes them susceptible to exhaustion as this tilt progresses. LA CLIPPERS are 10-0 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with the ppg dif clicking in at just over 22 ppg. The Raptors are 0-10-1 ATS L/11 coming off a win where they scored 15+ points more expected. ( that happened vs the Lakers) Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Golden State played last night against this same Pelicans side and beat them 123-108. Both sides looked motivated, but some exhaustion issues were evident. Im betting both these sides, will once again have a hard time finding their legs here in this late season battle and the combined score will end up on the lower side of the offered total. Golden State has gone under in 6 of their L/8 while New Orleans has gone under in 5 of their L/6. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 56-29 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. |
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05-04-21 | Nets v. Bucks -116 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Bucks have proved they can stand tall against sides like Brooklyn and Im betting they can handle them here again tonight. Note: The Bucks are 21-10 SU at home and this is where they play their best hoops. MILWAUKEE is 31-16 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 11-28-1 ATS in the last 40 meetings. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-11 L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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05-04-21 | White Sox -102 v. Reds | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Pale Hose starter Cease threw his first complete game and shutout Thursday vs. Detroit and has momentum entering this game. The White Sox are 13-0 on the ML L/13 since the 2005 season as a road favorite off a home loss where they never led. White Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. CINCINNATI is 3-10 against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 3 seasons. Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 home games. Play on the White Sox to win |
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05-04-21 | Islanders v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
The Islanders blew a 2-1 lead going into the third period last time out, and lost 4-2 to the lowly Buffalo Sabres. Isles HC Barry Trotz was furious after that effort, and tonight Im betting on a bounce back effort that will center around the Isles top tier D, that will be in preparation mode for the play offs.
Play UNDER |
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05-04-21 | Braves v. Nationals +118 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Nationals starter Joe Ross(RHP2-1, 4.64 ERA, 18 SO)Ross threw six innings of one-run ball against the Mets in his last outing on April 24 and he gets my support here today.
WASHINGTON is 16-3 against the money line rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 13-24 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. NBA underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, with a rested bullpen - threw 2 innings or less in each of the last 2 games are 27-12 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - poor team, outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 49-16 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play on Washington to win |
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05-04-21 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Phillies starter Aaron Nola(RHP2-1, 3.11 ERA, 39 SO) has loved to face the Brewers in his career going 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee. Im betting he notches another W, here or at least contributes his team getting a victory in this spot play. Note:The Phillies are 12-0 on the ML when Aaron Nola starts as a home -140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.Brewers are 6-16 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play on Philadelphia to win |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays +110 v. A's | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Blue Jays starter Steven Matz(LHP4-1, 4.00 ERA, 27 SO) is coming off his first rough outing of the season, but opened the year 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA prior to that. Look for the lefty to bounce back after an excellent month of April, as he should be fresh after throwing just 80 pitches last time out and he gets my support here in this spot play as an underdog. note: Matz in 3 road starts owns a 2.60 ERA and a 3-0 record. Meanwhile, As starter Frankie Montas(RHP)2-2, 6.20 ERA, 25 SO is struggling entering this game a is evident by going 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA over his last two starts. This will be his first career start against Toronto. Toronto is 13-2 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 3 seasons.TORONTO is 25-11 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Blue Jays to win |
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05-03-21 | Knicks +3.5 v. Grizzlies | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
NYK is the real deal and continue to prove it during a 12-1 SU ATS L/13 run. Meanwhile, Memphis has lost 3 of his L/4 tilts and despite of being viable side, they are not currently in top form and are 14-17 L/31 at home this season and wobbly favorites. NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 23-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Knicks are 17-0 ATS /15-2 SU after allowing at least 50 points in the paint last game. the two losses came by 2 and 3 points. Play on NY Knicks to cover |
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05-03-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +115 | 5-6 | Win | 115 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 5-0-1 all-time against the Golden Knights at Xcel Energy Center with the lone loss coming in a shootout on Oct. 6, 2018.The Wild, who went 3-0 against the Golden Knights during Vegas' Stanley Cup finalist season in 2017-18, also have won the last four meetings with Vegas this season, including a sweep of their two games in Las Vegas on April 1 and 3. Rinse and repeat on a value line. Minnesota is 16-2-1 in its last 19 games as hosts. Play on the Minnesota Wild |
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05-03-21 | Mets v. Cardinals -119 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Cards starter Adam Wainwright(RHP0-3, 4.08 ERA, 32 SO)Despite being put on the COVID IL, Wainwright is set to start against the Mets to begin a seven-game homestand. Wainwright is winless in five starts this season, sporting an 0-3 record and a 4.08 ERA. However, he deserves better than those numbers suggest and gets my support here today. The Cardinals are 8-0 on the ML when Adam Wainwright starts when he went 8 or more innings in his last start and the Cardinals lost. NY METS are 7-22 against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts are 52-91 L/24 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate. Play on the Cards to win
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05-03-21 | Warriors +2 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are off three straight road games with the last a grueling OT affair vs the Wolves. Now in a physical and emotional letdown state the Pelicans will have their hands full with a Golden State side that needs wins badly. NEW ORLEANS is 6-14 ATS as a home favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 33-13 L/46 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season . NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 7-31 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 30-6 SU/ 30-5-1 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover |
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05-03-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Wizards | 141-154 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Indiana were clipped 132-124, as 7-point home dogs the last time these two sides met in late March. Now in revenge mode I expect the Pacers to be motivated and to play a strong competitive game. Note: The Wizards are 1-12-2 ATS at home in this series when the Pacers are out looking to get even while the Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SUATS L/5 in this series when in revenge mode for a 7 or more point defeat. NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are just 46-102 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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05-03-21 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 210 | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 9 of their L/11 overall and with nothing left to play for should play looser and just look to pad stats. 'Im betting on Detroit also opening up in the same fashion and for this tilt to eclipse the total. Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as an underdog. Over is 21-10-1 in Pistons last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. ORLANDO is 10-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 8-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 233.2 ppg scored. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. Play OVER |
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05-03-21 | Stars v. Panthers -140 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas Stars, who end the season with seven straight road games have not done well in the first two losing-- both by shutouts and in their current form are fade material. DALLAS is 6-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Stars are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.Stars are 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog. Stars are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. FLORIDA is 9-0 against the money line after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games this season.Panthers are 8-1 in their last 9 home games. Play on Florida to win |
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05-02-21 | 76ers -6 v. Spurs | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Im not a big proponent of laying points with a road side, but their are matchup instances where I feel comfortable enough to do so and this is one of those situations. It must be noted that San Antonio comes home after a grueling hard fought 4 game road trip that concluded with a 143-140 loss to the Celtics in Boston and now exhausted with this being their 8th game in 14 days and in a emotional letdown situation are susceptible to down effort. SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is i15-31 ATS after a combined score of 245 points or more. SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games this season. SAN ANTONIO is 4-12 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more. are 26-1 with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 ppg. NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-11 ATS L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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05-02-21 | Knicks v. Rockets UNDER 217.5 | 122-97 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
With nothing left to play for Im betting the Rockets will run here with wreck-less abandon but the Knicks will not allow this game to be wide open and will be out to control the pace. The Knicks own both the top ppg defense and the slowest pace in the league and Im betting their will to make this a grinding affair will outwill the Rockets need to rack up stats. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total. NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 195.5 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a terrible team (25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Blazers -1 v. Celtics | 129-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a big game for both sides, but my power rankings suggest the Blazers matchup well here. The Blazers lost by 1 point the last time these teams played, but with redemption as an added motivational factor the Blazers are the right side. Note: PORTLAND is 26-13 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 26-1 L/24 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Portland Blazers to win |
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05-02-21 | Rockies +131 v. Diamondbacks | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez(RHP1-0, 3.60 ERA, 12 SO)In three starts, González has posted a 3.00 ERA with his pitch-to-contact, ground-ball style. In his only previous career start at Chase Field on Aug. 19, 2019, González allowed two runs over six innings in a no-decision and gets my support here today vs the Dbacks on a value ML. Meanwhile, Merril Kelly faced the Rockies earlier this year and allowed six earned runs in six innings at Coors Field and according to my power rankings does not matchup well against them. ARIZONA is 0-9 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 5-22 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Diamondbacks are 11-24 in their last 35 vs. National League West.Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Diamondbacks are 7-19 in their last 26 during game 4 of a series. MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ARIZONA) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 43-64 L/24 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado to win |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks -1.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Today I waited to see if Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo would play and he is listed as probable. The last time these top tier teams played the Nets took a closely contested 125-123 victory , but that was with Harden in the lineup. I know the pundits love the Nets, but their biggest weakness remains their defense that allows struggle 117.2 points per 100 possessions and Im betting they are vulnerable in this spot. Meanwhile, The Bucks own a w a +5.9 point differential per 100 possessions, 5th best in the league and are top 10 defense that deserves respect especially here at home. Note: Nets: 1-5 away against Central division sides. Bucks: 6-0 as conference home favs vs .600 or better opponents. NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 54-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 243.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Both sides can score, that is an obvious point. However, this tilt Im betting will be a hard fought physical play off affair as both sides look to send a pre play off message to each other. BROOKLYN is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 207 ppg. MILWAUKEE is 17-5 UNDER in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Indians v. White Sox -158 | 5-0 | Loss | -158 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Indians starter Zach Plesac(RHP1-3, 5.81 ERA, 18 SO)For the third time in his last four starts, Plesac will face the White Sox. And in each of his first two outings against Chicago, he permitted six runs on seven hits and Im betting he will actually regress here vs a side that is now very accustomed with his stuff. Note: Plesac in 2 road starts has recorded a ugly 10.79 ERA. The White Sox are 28-0 L/28 on the ML as a -125 or greater favorite after they scored in at most two separate innings last game. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 18-71 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA of 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 6-33 L/24 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate. Play on White Sox to win |
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05-02-21 | Royals v. Twins -193 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Royals starter Brad Keller(RHP2-2, 9.00 ERA, 13 SO) pushed through back-to-back walks in the first inning against the Tigers on Monday to log six frames for his deepest start of the year. He worked around eight hits for two runs and struck out two, needing 103 pitches in the win. He enters this game exhausted which is not a good omen for him to lower his ugly 9.00 ERA. The Royals are 0-13 L/13 on the ML as a road dog coming off a road game in which they won by 5+ runs. MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 12-45 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play on the Minnesota Twins to win |
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05-02-21 | Astros -123 v. Rays | 4-5 | Loss | -123 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Astros starter Cristian Javier(RHP3-0, 0.87 ERA, 26 SO) enters the game on a 17-inning scoreless streak, which has spanned three starts. He threw five scoreless innings April 8 and April 22, and threw a career-high seven scoreless, with two hits, on Tuesday against the Mariners. Solid hurler deserves respect and the ability to go deep makes the Astros a solid wagering opportunity. Rays starter HILL is 0-6 against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)The Astros are 10-0 L/10 on the ML when Cristian Javier starts after he averaged more than 3.9 pitches per batter in his last start. Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Play on Houston to win |
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05-02-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Cards starter MARTINEZ is 13-3 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings in his career. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Wil Crowe (RHP)0-0, 3.86 ERA, 5 SO has been effective in preventing runs. He allowed four hits and two walks, but only one run in his last start and Im betting will do his part here in helping the combined score of todays game remaining on the low side of the total. The Cards took out the Pirates yesterday by a 12-5 count and in the past this has signaled what has been a low scoring affair in the followup. ST LOUIS is 11-0 UNDER after scoring 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves +4 | 140-136 | Push | 0 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
When Karl Anthony Towns is in the Minnesota Wolves lineup this Wolves team seem to find cohesion and chemistry and must not be underestimated. I know the Wolves beat the Pelicans the last time they met 135-105, and now the visiting side is looking for revenge, but unfortunately the matchup stats from the last clash tells me a comparatively different story. Like Mick Jagger said in his iconic song, You don't always get what you want. Advantage Minnesota. NEW ORLEANS is 12-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Play on the Minnesota Wolves |
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05-01-21 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 208 | 124-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total should be closer to 212 which gives us more than a 1 possession advantage on this total to the over. MIAMI is 10-0 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-5 OVER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games 36-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-01-21 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Golden State is no longer a team that can just beat up on opponents behind an explosive offense as they only rank 21st in offensive rating and as a result their defense has had to ramp itself up as is evident in ranking 9th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, they now go against a Rockets side that rank 27th in offensive rating. I know both sides like to run at a faster pace their efficiencies and deficiencies dictate uneven proficiency from a offensive standpoint giving us value with an under wager on this offered totals number. The Rockets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a home dog coming off a home win with a combined average of 207.4 ppg. HOUSTON is 21-11 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Pistons +7.5 v. Hornets | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Pistons were dealing with some fatigue issues recently but now with a couple of days rest Im betting they are ready to compete again, especially against an inconsistent side like Charlotte who according to my projections does not deserve to be this big a favorite. Note: The Pistons also have the added incentive and motivation to get revenge for 105-102 loss to the Hornets on March 11. DETROIT is 21-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. DETROIT is 14-2 ATS off a home loss this season.( The Pistons lost last time out and have proven to be a big bounce back side to back when that happens) Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. NBA Road teams (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 114-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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05-01-21 | Rangers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
The Islanders will look to clinch their third straight trip to the playoffs Saturday, when they host the New York Rangers in the finale of a home-and-home series in Uniondale, N.Y. As usual it will be Barry Trotz play off style defensive game plan that takes center stage which offers value for an under wager. NY RANGERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. NY RANGERS are 5-0 UNDER off a home loss by 2 goals or more this season. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (NY RANGERS) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the 2nd half of the season are 85-39 L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Red Sox -178 v. Rangers | 6-8 | Loss | -178 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Red Sox starting southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)(4-0, 3.52 ERA, 26 SO )has been the rotation's most consistent arm, having gone at least five innings in each of his four starts, reaching seven in his last outing vs. the Mariners. In four career starts vs. Texas, Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA. He gets my support again in this spot. RODRIGUEZ is 17-1 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Red Sox are 11-0 on the ML when Eduardo Rodriguez starts on the road after he pitched a quality start in his last start. BOSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings are 11-52 L/24 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (BOSTON) - starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, ice cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 5 games are 72-23 L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Bosox to win |
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05-01-21 | Cardinals -131 v. Pirates | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Jack Flaherty (RHP4-0, 3.18 ERA, 27 SO)The ace of the Cardinals' staff is in top form of late , with a 4-0 record, a 1.50 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .475 over his past four outings. Flaherty went 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Pirates last season, with 17 strikeouts against two walks and gets my support in this spot play. FLAHERTY is 6-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.895. ST LOUIS is 9-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. Cardinals are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Pittsburgh. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ST LOUIS) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games of 101-38 L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on St.Louis Cardinals to win |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Chicago's starting pitchers have a 9.55 ERA and have allowed 34 hits, including nine home runs, as the club has gone 1-4 to start a seven-game trip. Jake Arrieta allowed seven runs and three homers over 3 1/3 innings Friday and now Davies who owns a ugly 12.15 ERA in his L/4 starts looks to be cannon fodder vs a Reds team that has averaged 7.8 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile Reds starter Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) has lasted more than five innings just once in five starts, and opponents are batting .311 in his three home starts. With a Reds bullpen that owns a nasty 6.49 ERA at home Im betting that even an inconsistent Cubs offence will have a positive output in this spot. This Im betting leads to a combined score that eclipses this total.CHICAGO CUBS are 12-2 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games.Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -169 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Indians starter Triston McKenzie (RHP 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 23 SO) is winless in three starts this season as he's trying to find his command of the strike zone. The 23-year-old has allowed 14 walks and struck out 23 hitters in 16 2/3 innings this season. McKenzie has given up four home runs, with two coming in his last start against the Yankees and is fade material in his current form. Meanwhile, Pale Hose starter Lance Lynn (RHP 1-1, 0.92 ERA, 27 SO)has been sidelined retroactive to April 17 with a right trapezius strain. But after the White Sox have taken their time with his recovery early in the season, he figures to be back in this series vs. Cleveland.The White Sox are 27-0 L/27 on the ML as a -125 or greater favorite after they scored in at most two separate innings last game. CHI WHITE SOX are 38-15 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. LARUSSA is 65-27 against the money line in home games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game in all games he has managed since 1997. MLB team (CHI WHITE SOX) - good AL offensive team (5.1 or better runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or worse ), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the White sox to win |
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05-01-21 | Royals +125 v. Twins | 11-3 | Win | 125 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Danny Duffy(LHP3-1, 0.39 ERA, 27 SO)has been a model of consistency this season. He's coming off another scoreless outing -- his third in four starts this year -- when he struck out eight with no walks in five innings against the Tigers on Sunday and gets my support here in this spot play vs the Twins who have proven very inconsistent offensively this season averaging just .247 BA vs Leftys this season and 3.6 rpg. Meanwhile, Twins tarter Matt Shoemaker(RHP)1-2, 5.49 ERA, 14 SO will make his fifth start of the season in hopes of evening his record. Shoemaker has taken the loss in his last two starts, as he's allowed a combined seven earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also recorded two strikeouts and issued five walks in those outings and his velocity is a problem marker. Here against a Royals side averaging 5.2 rpg vs righties the Twins are in trouble.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Twins are 0-8 L/8 on the ML coming off a home game in which they held a multiple-run lead which was the case yesterday. MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or worse ) against a top level starting pitcher (ERA 3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 47-74 L/24 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas city to win |
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04-30-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Suns | 100-121 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
We have two top tier sides ready to do battle here tonight in Phoenix . However, one team stands out in this matchup as being superior and also being very motivated with double revenge on board and that side is the Utah Jazz who own the leagues best scoring margin at +9.5 PPG and 2nd best in DFG percentage. Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Utah Jazz own the leagues best SRS mark at 9.46 while the Phoenix Suns rank 4th at 5.77. Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 58-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-30-21 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Logan Webb(RHP1-1, 4.03 ERA, 24 SO)enjoyed his best start of the season against the Marlins on Sunday, when he tossed seven scoreless innings and matched a career high with eight strikeouts. He has a 1.80 ERA in three career games against San Diego. Meanwhile, Padres ace, Yu Darvish(RHP2-1, 2.27 ERA, 37 SO)The Padres traded for Yu Darvish to be their ace. And he's looked the part. Darvish has allowed only one run in each of his past four starts, and he has lasted at least six innings in all four, giving up a total of just 11 hits in that span.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-30-21 | Royals v. Twins -140 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Michael Pineda(RHP1-1, 2.42 ERA, 22 SO) is looking to bounce back from his shortest outing this season, in which he went 4 1/3 innings and allowed four earned runs against the Pirates. Despite the rough outing, Pineda has been one of Minnesota's best starters this season. His 2.42 ERA and .193 opposing batting average rank second in the Twins' rotation and his overall form givers me the confidence to back him here today. PINEDA is 11-1 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Twins are 19-0 L/19 on the ML as a -140 or greater favorite after a 5+ run win as a road favorite last game. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.50 or less ) (AL), cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games are 4-36 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. Play on the Minnesota Twins to win |
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04-30-21 | Blazers -1 v. Nets | 128-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
With Irving out, the Blazers Im betting have an edge in this contest. The Nets are also on tired legs after playing last night and have not been good bets in back to back affairs. Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-5 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to win |
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04-30-21 | Spurs v. Celtics OVER 219.5 | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest. The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers. SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. BOSTON is 21-9 OVER after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-29-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -149 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Antonio Senzatela(RHP1-3, 5.76 ERA, 15 SO) held the D-backs to four hits in eight scoreless innings on April 7, but he is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA in nine career games at Chase Field and after recently showing control issues is fade material in this spot.The Rockies are 0-10 on the ML when Antonio Senzatela starts as a road dog when their bullpen gave up runs in each of their last two games.Rockies are 8-23 in their last 31 vs. National League West. Play on the Dbacks to win |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder +9 | 109-95 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
The Pelicans enter this game having lost 6 of their L/8 and are a hard fought 114-112 loss vs the Denver Nuggets last time out and could easily be susceptible to a emotional letdown scenario. NEW ORLEANS is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 25-58 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Thunder took a 111-110 win las time these teams met this season) Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-29-21 | Raptors +3 v. Nuggets | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
The Raptors according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Nuggets, and earlier this season gave them a good beating. I know the Nuggets are out looking for revenge, but they are on tired legs and off a grueling affair vs the Pelicans last time out pulling off a 114-112 win and susceptible to a letdown scenario. DENVER is 4-12 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season . Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231 | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -134 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
White Sox starter Cease has nine career wins, with a 5-0 record vs. Detroit and gets my support here again today. DETROIT is 0-13 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - after a game without an extra base hit are 47-3 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less are 7-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago White Sox to win |
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04-29-21 | Warriors v. Wolves +6 | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in a groove and have won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 and in their current form must be respected as home underdogs vs an over hyped Golden State brand. GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 21-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Warriors are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 Thursday games. Warriors have failed to cover 6 of L/8 at Minnesota. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 7-29 L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers +188 | 1-2 | Win | 188 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A. Brewers Im betting bounce back after yesterdays loss. Note: Milwaukee are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss. MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 45-95 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A. LAs starter Trevor Bauer Over his last three games, Bauer is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. Opponents hit .138 off Bauer in those three games. Both these starters will help keep this game on the low side of the total. MILWAUKEE is 30-12 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons.
Play on UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Nets v. Pacers UNDER 240 | 130-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note: Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Detroit seems to be able to deal with the Canes well, and that was evident in recent back to back wins in this series. I know the Canes have revenge on board, but you don't always get what you want.Red Wings are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Carolina. CAROLINA is 0-5 ATS in home games against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp in the 2nd half of the year over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Red Wings to cover +1.5 |
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04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
EDMONTON is 7-15 ATS in home games against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. |
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04-28-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | 101-109 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Suns come home off an exhausting 5 game road trip and will time to get acclimated to home cooking again, and are at a disadvantage vs a Clipper side that would love to send a message to their upstart conference rivals. Note: Suns: 2-13 L/15 home after 5 or more road games. LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants -147 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants starter Alex Wood(LHP)2-0, 0.75 ERA, 11 SOWood has given up only one run on four hits over 12 innings in his first two starts of the year, both of which came against the Marlins and has momentum on his side going into this matchup. The Rockies are 0-10 L/10 on the ML when their starter German Marquez starts on the road when they won as an home favorite in his last start. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Marquez who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Giants to win |
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04-28-21 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 213 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-4 OVER in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored. MIAMI is 23-9 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 215 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario for an over wager to cash . My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total. Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite. CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. Borrego is 15-2 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics -6 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight. Boston is off three straight losses and will be primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side that smashed them 125-104 a couple of days ago. BOSTON is 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 115-65 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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04-28-21 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 210 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Red Sox +225 v. Mets | 1-0 | Win | 225 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
BoSox starter Nick Pivetta(RHP2-0, 3.48 ERA, 18 SO)The righty had a solid last outing vs. Seattle on Thursday, giving up two runs on one hit and striking out four in six innings and my support here on a bloated runline offering. BOSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. DEGROM is 10-14 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Mets top tier starter DEGROM is 10-14 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DeGrom has never beaten the Red Sox in 3 career starts. Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog.Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 road games. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Red Sox are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York. .MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (NY METS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Red Sox to win |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -201 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw(LHP)3-2, 2.56 ERA, 31 SOAfter allowing five runs on Opening Day against the Rockies, Kershaw is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four starts and gets my support here today . KERSHAW is 80-28 against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record) The Reds are 0-16 on the ML coming off a game as a road dog where they scored first, then trailed and came back to win. Play on the Dodgers to win |
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04-28-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -118 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
The Twins are 0-12 UNDER L/12 past the first game of a series as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks with none of the games eclipsing this total. Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 5-2-2 in Twins last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 21-9-2 in Twins last 32 games following a loss.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 13-6-2 in Twins last 21 during game 3 of a series. Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 47-22-3 in Indians last 72 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 58-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. |
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04-27-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +149 | 1-5 | Win | 149 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Padres starter C.Paddack has been shaky, allowing 14 runs across 18 innings, and is fade material in his current form. KELLY the Dbacks starter is 7-0 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Diamondbacks are 10-0 L/10 on the ML in the first game of a series with rest after they allowed 6 or fewer hits last game. ARIZONA is 10-2 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 19-4 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. Play on Arizona to win |
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04-27-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 104 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
KELLY the Dbacks starter is 13-3 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Padres are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite after they had a comeback win last game. ARIZONA is 12-3 UNDER vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 45-15 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Wolves -1.5 v. Rockets | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Both sides may not inspire bettors but according to my projections the Wolves are the better side, and have been competitive lately with their star Towns back in the lineup winning 3 of their L/5 and showing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the rockets have lost 14 of their L/16 overall and rarely look like their doing anything but going through the motions. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last 3 season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( as a home underdog of 6 points or less this seasonHOUSTON is 7-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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04-27-21 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 235 | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
This number stood out to me from an eye test, and then my projections verified my initial observation . Value to the under. HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better this season. HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 225 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - off a home win against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 26-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Carlos Martinez ( RHP 0-4, 6.00 ERA, 13 SO) is prone to inconsistent starts and according to pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up badly vs the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phillies starter EFLIN is 18-6 OVER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)The Cardinals are 9-0 OVER L/9 when Carlos Martinez starts at home when they lost in his last start.EFLIN is 11-1 OVER in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) which was the case last time out with a combined average of 11.6 rpg. Play OVER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Raptors may not be a championship quality team anymore but they still are well coached and have the ability to slow explosive sides the Nets down . After playing last night the Raptors are on tired legs so they wont be in any shape to run and gun here, and with the Nets off a hard fought run and gun win vs the Suns last time out, I expect they will be in a letdown situation , which will also contribute to a lower combined score than anticipated. TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors +6 | 116-103 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Nets are off a big win, against the Suns, last time out , and will now be in a letdown situation vs the Raptors tonight . Meanwhile, the Raptors despite of still not being a championship side are still a capable side, and have been playing better lately and deserve respect as hosts here. Note: Toronto is 5-0 SU L/5 as hosts in this series.TORONTO is 18-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Play on the Raptors to cover |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 214.5 | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Boston is off a loss last time out and will have little mercy here vs the Thunder tonight. That will have the thunder operating and catchup zone all night which will help this combined score go over the total. The Celtics are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 coming off a road loss where they had at least 30% of their points on threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. BOSTON is 14-4 OVER in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER off a road loss this season. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 54-29 OVER L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |
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04-27-21 | Bucks v. Hornets +9 | 114-104 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Charlotte seems to know how to deal with the Bucks and and have beaten twice this season already and despite of the Bucks being in revenge mode are not viable favs here considering they are barely a .500 team on the road dating back to last season, as they are 17-17 away from home and 11-23 ATS L/24 as visitors. CHARLOTTE is 4-0 SU/ against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 11-0 ATS L/11 10-1 SU off a win as a home dog in which they had 6+ double digit scorers. Borrego is 13-3 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game as the coach of CHARLOTTE. Budenholzer is 17-31 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts as the coach of MILWAUKEE. MILWAUKEE is 2-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 68-105 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Hornets to cover |
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04-27-21 | Islanders -103 v. Capitals | 0-1 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
The Isles have lost 2 straight to the Capitals and are now desperate to get back into the win column. With the added incentive of revenge Im betting on the Isles to get back on track here behind what has become a veteran lineup. NY ISLANDERS are 16-6 ATS revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons. NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 ATS after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals this season. NHL favorite against the money line (NY ISLANDERS) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more, good team, winning 60-70% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season are 32-5 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on the Islanders to win |
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04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -180 | 5-3 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Dodgers starter Julio Urias(LHP3-0, 2.81 ERA, 26 SO) struck out a career-high 11 over seven innings vs. the Mariners in his last start start. The left-hander has not lost a decision since Aug. 9, 2019, against the D-backs. Risne and repeat again today. The Reds are 0-9 L/9 on the ML when Tyler Mahle starts as a road dog when they lost in his last start. CINCINNATI is 0-6 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. LA DODGERS are 61-18 against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts is 67-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dodgers to win |
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04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants -163 | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Anthony DeSclafani(RHP1-0, 2.14 ERA, 21 SO ) gave up three runs over four innings in his last start against the Phillies on Wednesday, which was interrupted by a rain delay. He is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA over four career starts against the Rockies. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 against the money line rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 3 seasons. MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, well rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 3 games are 35-6 for a 86% conversion rate. |
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04-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -4 | 96-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis has been a cover machine and they have played quite well of late, but this is a bad spot for them here in the thin air of the mile high city as they play their 7th straight road game and are on now exhausted and on tired legs and very suceptiable to a down effort. |
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04-26-21 | Clippers -3.5 v. Pelicans | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
The Clippers still have a chance for top seed in the West and Im betting they will be primed to play down the stretch and especially here tonight in revenge mode vs the pesky Pelicans who defeated them 135-113 back in mid march . Note the Clippers this season when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 10 or more points, 5-0 SUATS the last five opportunities and Im betting the 6th straight comes tonight in the Bayou. The explosive Clippers are also 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS away taking on losing sides , including 3-0 SUATS mark when playing with a redemption on their minds. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. are 127-78 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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04-26-21 | Mariners +155 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Justus Sheffield(LHP1-1, 4.86 ERA, 16 SO)has faced the Astros just once in his career, but was impressive in that outing, holding Houston to one earned run across six innings with four strikeouts last season. He gets the nod here on a value ML offering. Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. Mariners are 11-1 in their last 12 games following a loss which was the case last time out. The Mariners are 9-0 L/9 on the ML after they drew 0-1 walks last game. The Mariners were a dog in all 9 games.
MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 99-48 L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. Play on Seattle to win |
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04-26-21 | Panthers v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
The Panthers' Chris Driedger, who made 16 saves on Saturday for his 13th win of 2020-21, has stopped 45 of 46 shots and posted a shutout in two starts against the Predators this season. Nashville's Juuse Saros has 17 wins this season, including one in three starts against Florida (2.66 goals-against average. Im betting on both these goalies to help keep this tilt on the low side of the number. Under is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 road games. Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings. NASHVILLE is 16-4 UNDER in home games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. NASHVILLE is 21-8 UNDER in home games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or better of shots against over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 7-1 UNDER in road games after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (FLORIDA) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the second half of the season are 124-67 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-26-21 | Suns -130 v. Knicks | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
The Knicks have been red hot, winning 8 straight, but tonight Im betting their run comes to an end vs what my rankings suggest is the superior side. The Knicks rank 13th in the league from a SRS perspective with a 1,73 mark, while the Suns rank 4th with a 5.53 which is a huge divergence based on this data. Note: SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Suns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New York.Suns are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. PHOENIX is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season PHOENIX is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 9-31 L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 46-101 L/24 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 20-85 L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phoenix Suns to win/cover |
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04-26-21 | Lakers v. Magic +10 | 114-103 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
The Lakers style of play bases its success or failures on their ability to play a top tier brand of defense, but against good ball handling sides like Orlando that type of hoops does not really give value to being a DD favorite as they the Lakers. Note: NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - good ball handling team - committing 14 or less turnovers/game, after 2 straight games committing 7+ less turnovers than opponents are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.LA LAKERS are 17-35 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 2-10 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. Play on the Orlando Magic to cover |
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04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves -180 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Atlantas Charlie Morton(RHP1-1, 3.91 ERA, 27 SO) has felt good about his curveball in both of his previous two starts. The veteran will be pitching with an extra day of rest. He limited the Yankees to one run over six innings on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Zach Davies(RHP)(1-2, 8.80 ERA, 10 SO)Davies has a 12.10 ERA in his past three starts (9 2/3 innings), which includes allowing four runs in four innings to the Braves on April 16. He gave up two runs in four innings vs. the Brewers in his last start on Wednesday and is fade material in his current form. CHICAGO CUBS are 4-11 against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The Cubs are 0-14 L/14 on the ML as a road dog of at least +140 after they were shutout last game. Play on the Braves to win |
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04-26-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
As starter Sean Manaea(LHP2-1, 3.04 ERA, 22 SO) has been dominant over his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA, including a shutout of the Twins his last time out and Im betting that momentum carries on into this tilt, and will be a contributing factor in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. MANAEA is 22-8 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) Under is 6-0 in Athletics last 6 on astroturf.Under is 7-1-2 in Athletics last 10 vs. American League East. Under is 9-3-1 in Rays last 13 vs. American League West. Play UNDER |
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04-26-21 | Twins -120 v. Indians | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Twins starter Zach Plesac (RHP1-3, 6.75 ERA, 14 SO) has gotten off to a tough start, taking the loss in three of his first four outings. Although he has issued only two walks and struck out 14 in 18 2/3 innings, opposing hitters are batting .299 against him and is fade material in its current form. Meanwhile, Twins starting hurler Jose Berrios (RHP2-2, 3.00 ERA, 30 SO)leads the Twins' pitching staff with 30 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. He took a tough-luck loss against the A's in his last outing due to a lack of run support despite allowing one run in five innings and get my support in this spot play. CLEVELAND is 5-17 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. MLB team (CLEVELAND) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings are 4-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Any team (CLEVELAND) - starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on Minnesota Twins to win |
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04-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Royals Brad Keller(RHP1-2, 12.00 ERA, 9 SO) will look to turn around his season after making it through 1 2/3 innings in Tuesday's loss to the Rays. Keller wasn't hit hard, but ran into unlucky plays and walked three. He was tagged for five runs on three hits and his second loss of the season. Meanwhile, Spencer Turnbull despite of being off a good start is winless in six career starts against the Royals, and according to my projections does not matchup well against this opponent. OVER
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04-25-21 | Kings +8.5 v. Warriors | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Two playoff hopefuls dealing with the ramifications of COVID protocols meet Sunday night when the Sacramento Kings visit the Golden State Warriors for a matchup of Western Conference playoff significance. These sides , both looking for a post season, placings will be primed to play hard, but according to my own numbers this line is bloated considering how rested the Kings are and how important this game is. Kings: 6-1 with /3+ days rest . the Warriors are 1-5 as division home favs of 9 points or less. SACRAMENTO is 27-11 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 9-1 ATS in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Milwaukee since March 1 of last season, is just 17-16 SU and 11-22 ATS away. The last time they were visitors was 10 days ago where they did win and cash vs the Hawks, 120- 109. That may have been an aberration as the Bucks are just 9-16 ATS away in non- division games, and 4-12 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Now with revenge on board it must be noted that the Hawks are 6-1 ATS at home with same-season double-digit loss revenge when out look for redemption from two straight losses vs the same side which is the case here tonight. Also the Bucks are just 1-10 ATS off consecutive home games with no rest going against a foe seeking same-season double revenge (exact). MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons McMillan is 30-12 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game in all games he has coached since 1996. NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more are 69-36 ATS L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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04-25-21 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 233 | 119-128 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
The Suns last time out, looked fatigued from the quick turnaround after playing Philadelphia, were also outr-ebounded 48-38 by the Celtics in 99-86 loss. Im betting that exhaustion will continue permeate today and that they will be more interested in slowing this game down vs the fast paced Nets , to remain competitive which Im betting directly effects the combined score. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Brooklyn. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 93-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for 71% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-25-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Comparing both star4ting pitchers and their bullpens vs the opposing offenses has me recommending we take an under stance here in this spot play. Under is 5-2-1 in Reds last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a win. Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis. CINCINNATI is 23-8 UNDER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 3 seasons. MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-25-21 | Rangers v. White Sox -179 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Michael Kopech(RHP1-0, 1.69 ERA, 17 SO)Kopech will get his second start of the 2021 season during Sunday's series finale against the Rangers. Kopech takes the place of Lucas Giolito, who was pushed back following a cut to the top of his middle finger. This hurler is one of the most under rated hurlers in the majors according to my power rankings and matches up well vs the Rangers batting order. The White Sox are 24-0 L/24 on the ML as a -125+ favorite after they scored in no more than two separate innings last game. MLB underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (TEXAS) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games are 9-61 L/24 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the White Sox to win |
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04-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Rays +106 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
Luis Patino(RHP0-0, -.-- ERA, 0 SO)The headliner of the Rays' return from the Padres for Blake Snell, Patiño will make his second Major League start in his Rays debut against the Jays. He's stretched out to pitch at least four innings. Lefty Josh Fleming will also pitch for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Ryu the Jays starter despite of remaining a top tier pitcher has seen his velocity decrease recently , which might be a troubling scenario that signals some other issues. The Blue Jays are 0-16 L/16 on the ML past the first game of a series as a road dog after they allowed 6 or fewer hits last game. TAMPA BAY is 16-4 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 24-9 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. are 44-94 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to win |
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04-25-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox -189 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
Nick Margevicius(LHP0-1, 5.40 ERA, 11 SO)is slated to pitch on turn after exiting his last outing early with left arm fatigue. His last start came on one day’s fewer rest than he’s been accustomed to in the six-man rotation. This will be his first career start against the Red Sox and is fafe material vs a batting order that matches up well against him. Note :The Red Sox are 23-0 L/23 on the ML when Bosox starter Eduardo Rodriguez starts as a favorite of more than -180.MLB underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SEATTLE) - with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less are 25-108 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
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04-24-21 | Wolves +11.5 v. Jazz | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The T-Wolves suffered a frustrating last-second 128-125 loss at Sacramento on Wednesday. Towns scored 26 but missed a shot in the final seconds and despite of a not so flattering overall record are playing much more competitive hoops of late and have the ability to hang tough today vs a Utah side that Im sure is over looking them and playing with star Donovan Mitchell;. Note: Jazz are just 1-7 ATS L/8 as 10+ ppg fav vs division at home. Meanwhile, the Wolves are 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in a division road game. Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Utah.Timberwolves are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or more on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 69-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |