Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-23-22 | Guardians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* OVER (BOB) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end in the opener of this three-game series. The Guardians are off a 4-2 loss to the Tigers, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA for the Guardians this year, but he's 0-2 with a ballooned 6.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab. He's 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. Garcia took a step back in his last outing though, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 4 innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Two teams in dire need of a victory here. Two starters who are on the decline. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports |
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05-22-22 | Warriors +3 v. Mavs | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10* WARRIORS (U OF THE U) Dallas is on the ropes. Luka Doncic is likely the best player on the floor in this series, but Golden State's offensive depth is just too much for the Mavericks to handle. Andrew Wiggins is out for the Warriors tonight, but it's just "next man up" mentality. Dallas threw its best possible punch at Golden State, and still came up short. I predict another tight battle here and I think it'll come down to the wire, literally the last team touching the ball is going to win type deal. And in a scenario like that, I'll gladly grab the points; the play is the Warriors! AAA Sports |
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05-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) So far the Battle of Alberta has been a competitive, high-scoring series. Calgary won Game 1 by a score of 9-6, before the Oilers bounced back with a 5-3 win in Game 2. The value has now shifted the other way as far as the total is concerned though in my opinion, as note that the Flames have in fact seen the total go "under" in 7 of their last 9 in trying to revenge a 2 goals or greater home loss against an opponent. The Flames had one of the best defenese in the league during the regular season, and I expect a return to form here on the road in this all-important Game 3 matchup. Yes, the first 2 games have flown well "over" the number, but Game 3 has all the makings of a classic "goaltenders battle." The play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-22-22 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The first 3 games of this 4 game series have all flown well "over" the number, but on Sunday in the finale we can expect a classic "duel" finally. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but each is desperate for a victory here today. I really like Logan Gilbert here for Seattle and I think he'll settle the M's down here. He's 4-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 51 K's. Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi, who is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA. The totals on these games keep creeping higher and higher, and today's is now just too large. We'll go the other way here on the total in the fourth game, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (ASSASSIN) The Celtics looked a lot better with Marcus Smart and Al Horford in the line-up in Game 2, and I believe that with the series shifting to Boston, that the home side will build on that performance with another big win and cover and in Game 3. The Heat finished as No. 1 in the East, but there's no question that they were better at home than on the road (24-17 away.) Boston's tough defensive play, combined with the strong play of Jayson Tatum will be just TOO much for this now struggling HEat team to handle on Saturday night; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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05-21-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -172 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* BLUES PUCKLINE (RED DRAGON) I'll argue that St. Louis has definitely been the better team in thi series. The Blues fell in OT in Game 1, but then in Game 2 they laid the hammer down with the 4-1 victory. Now back home, St. Louis is getting very little respect from the oddsmakers here. We can take advantage of that, but we'll lay the price here for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket. Great value overall on this line, considering the situation. Yes, the Avs dominated in the regular season, but now that the playoffs are here they're struggling defensively. Look for that to continue on Saturday night; the play is St. Louis on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER (IL TOY) Toronto has now seen the total go "under" the number in 6 straight after yesterday's tight 2-1 home win over the Reds. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game here finally on Saturday (it's interesting to note that the Jays though have seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 10 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. The Reds have seen the total go "over" in 6 of their last 8 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 1 or less runs in. Alek Manoah is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA for the Jays. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Hunter Greene though is just 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA for the Reds. Look for these starters to get chased early and for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (BLOOD-BATH) Game 1 was evenly matched at half time, but then Golden State pulled away in the second. I expect a full four-quarter effort from the Mavericks tonight though. Dallas had an uncharacteristically horrible shooting night from several players, and I don't expect that to happen twice. The Mavericks now have to make adjustments after the 112-87 Game 1 loss, but they've done well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 90 or less points in. Much like the Heat's victory in Game 1 of their series with Boston, I'm expecting a letdown here from Golden State as well in Game 2. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but this one comes down to the wire; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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05-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* RANGERS PUCKLINE (BOB) I'm laying the price here for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket. Game 1 was very tight, and it easily could have gone either way. Carolina was fortunate to come out on top in OT, getting a late third-period goal to force the extra time. We can expect an identical sort of game to play out here as well. Carolina has some goaltending issues now as well, with Frederik Anderson still missing games due to injury. The Rangers are still 35-17 in their last 52 in this series and I think they bounce-back here; that said, let's lay the price for the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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05-20-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* REDS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Both teams are struggling at the plate. I think this opening matchup is much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I like Luis Castillo here for the REds starting. He 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA, but he's faced Toronto 7 times in his career and has gone 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA. The Jays only average 3.68 RPG, so here's a perfect opponent for Castillo to get untracked against. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and who has never faced Cincinnati. I say this one gets decided late, or even in extras; because of that, let's grab the Reds on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (RED DRAGON) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and while that selection came up short, I believe that the visiting side will bounce back and, at the very least, take this contest right down to the wire. Boston lost 118-107 in Game 1, but it's done well in this spot for bettors, as it's 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Marcus Smart and Al Horford both could play after missing Game 1, which would shift this line even further towards a "pick em." Miami started off the first half slow, then came out like gang-busters in the second half of Game 1. Look for Boston's defense to respond and answer the bell here in this important contest. And while I do absolutely feel an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Boston! AAA Sports |
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05-19-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Rangers fly in under the radar here. They're off a 3-game sweep of the Angels, which featured a dramatic walk off win on Wednesday. The Astros come in with little momentum after going just 1-2 in Boston. Texas plays with revenge here after losing 3 of 4 at home to the Astros at the start of the season. But this Rangers line-up is raking now, led by Corey Seager with 8 home runs. Glenn Otto is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA for the Rangers. He was lit up at Boston in his last start, but I think he settles down here. Framber Valdez is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA for the Astrros. Texas comes in with confidence. It's seeing the ball well. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-19-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* PANTHERS (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Tampa in Game 1, but I'll be laying the price with confidence here in Game 2, as I expect the Panthers to risk life and limb to ensure they don't get into an 0-2 hole. Tampa's been anything but consistent throughout these playoffs, susceptible to big stretches of futility. I say the Bolts are happy with having already earned a split. The Panthers looked a bit slow out of the gate in Game 1, but we can expect Florida to be the aggressor from the outset in this one. Finally, note that the Panthers are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 1 or less goals in. The play is FLORIDA! AAA Sports |
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05-18-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -175 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
10* OILERS PUCKLINE (2ND RND. PL GOY) Both of these inter-provincial teams needed seven games to advance to the second round. Each looked great at times, and very ordinary in others in their opening round. The Oilers were down 3-2 in their series to the Kings, but they won the final 2 games and I think they carry that momentum over here. Calgary clinched its series with a 3-2 win in Game 7 at home over the Stars. These teams have been very equal on both ends of the ice during the playoffs, but note that Calgary is just 1-4 in its last 5 conference semi-finals contests, while Edmonton is 7-3 in its last 10 road games. This one is going to come down to the wire, or even go into sudden death OT; I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket! AAA Sports |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 214.5 | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) If this opening game was in Dallas, I'd lean to the "under" likely. The Mavericks are off a big upset series victory over the Suns, and I think they carry that momentum over here. Golden State will try to take advantage of a tired Mavericks team that just had to play seven games by picking up the pace from the opening tip off, and continuing that pressure until the final horn. I think the defensive intensity will pick up in this series as it goes, but Game 1 definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. Finally, note that Golden State has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -4.5 to -7.5 points range. This number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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05-18-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Tigers won the first game of this series by a score of 3-2, beore Tampa responded in yesterday's 8-1 victory. For the finale, I'm expecting a much tighter game. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for the Tigers, and he just threw 6.2 shutout innings in a win over Baltimore in his last outing. The home side counters with Drew Rasmussen, who also comes in off a gem, holding the Jays to just one run over 5.2 innings of work. These pitchers are evenly matched. As stated off the top, all signs point to this contest perhaps even going into extra innings; beause of that, let's lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket! AAA Sports |
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05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (GOW) The Boston Celtics will be without the services of Marcus Smart for Game 1, but I still think they'll find a way to win this game. The quick turnaround is going to work in Boston's favor today after its Game 7 win over the Bucks. The Heat on the other hand come out flat here in my estimation after eliminating the 76ers in just six games. Boston went 2-1 in this matchup during the regular season. Jayson Tatum is a matchup issue. Kyle Lowry being out for Miami is big here at this point of the Playoffs. I expect Boston to draw first blood in the ECF! AAA Sports |
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05-17-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 0-3 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
8* MARINERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Toronto took Game 1 of this series last night by a score of 6-2, but I expect a much tighter affair here on Tuesday. Both teams are in need of a win here, but in a contest that I think'll be decided late or in extra innings, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The bottom line here is, I think Logan Gilbert is the correct call in this starting pitching matchup over Jose Berrios. Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA, while Berrios is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA. The M's have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one; the play is Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-17-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
6* LIGHTNING PUCKLINE (SPECIAL) This'll be an exciting series. Yes, the Bolts just had to go 7 games with Leafs, but I expect them to carry over that momentum here and to catch the Panthers a little flat-footed. Florida has a small advantage in the rest department, but not by much. Experience at this point of the playoffs is key. Honestly, I think the Lightning have a legitimate shot at taking Game 1 outright. However, at this decent mid-sized price, I'm going to gladly lay it for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket; the play is Tampa on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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05-16-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOW) The Angels just took 3 of 4 from the A's over the weekend, while the Rangers dropped 2 of 3 to Boston. Texas was blown out in the first 2, but then bounced back with a blowout win of its own on Sunday. LA took 3 of 4 in early April, so the Rangers are out for revenge this week. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the visitors, an dhe owns a 2.45 ERA over 5 starts. He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who owns a 5.51 ERA. Texas has actually done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last 9 after scoring 10 or more runs in its previous game. This one will be decided late, or even in extras, so I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Rangers on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-16-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-6 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (RL BOB) The Mariners are 16-19 and the Blue Jays are 18-17. Toronto is off a series loss in Tampa, and fell 3-0 on Sunday. The M's took 2 of threa the Mets over the weekend. Chris Flexen is just 1-5, despite a decent 4.24 ERA for the Mariners this year. Overall the Mariners have posted a decent 3.74 collective ERA. The Jays return home after a poor 2-7 road trip. Yusei Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA for the Jays. I believe these starters are a "wash." In a scenario like that, and in a contest that I expect to be decided late (or perhaps even in extra innings), let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Seattle on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-16-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The lowly Baltimore Orioles won't be lacking for motivation today after 3 straight losses to Detroit over the weekend. The Yanks come in complacent after winning 7 of their la 10, including a 5-1 win at the White Sox yesterday. Luis Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA over 6 starts for New York, while Kyle Bradish is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA over 4 starts for the Orioles. Baltimore though has done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in its last 9 at home. Conversely, the Evil Empire has gone just 4-6 ATS in its last 10 overall. Look for Baltimore to jump on on this complacent Yanks side and to possibly even win outright; the play is the Orioles on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-15-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (ASSASSIN) This has been a back-and-forth series, and I'm expecting a very tight affair here in Game 7. Every game in this series has been won by the home team, while also going 6-0 ATS. I say this lop-sided trend ends this evening. The Mavericks role players are going to step up here. The Mavs relentless defensive attack will be in full effect from the opening tip, until the final horn. Phoenix lacks that killer instinct, and while the Suns may well indeed go on to win this contest, expect it to be a real "nail-biter!" The play is Dallas! AAA Sports |
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05-15-22 | Giants v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* CARDINALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) San Fran won the opener 8-2 and then St. Louis won 4-0 yesterday. I expect a much tighter game here in the finale, and that's why I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Carlos Rodon is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA for the Giants, but I expect regression to kick in sooner, rather than later. The Cards counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and who I like here in friendly confines. Note as well that St. Louis is actually 8-3 in its last 11 off a shutout home victory. For all the reasons listed above, the play is St. Louis on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-15-22 | Penguins +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
6* PENGUINS PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) I play underdogs. I play totals. I play favorites. In a game that I think'll be decided in the final moments, or perhaps even in extra periods, I'm going to lay the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket. Sidney Crosby is listed as questionable, but whether he plays or not, these teams are very evenly matched. Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge 2 straight losses against an opponent, and while the Pens may fall, I expect this one to be a tight battle until the end; the play Pittsburgh on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) After 2 straight really high-scoring games to open this series, I'm expecting much more of a "duel" here on Saturday. Philadelphia has inexplicably taken the first 2 games, winning 9-7 and 12-10. The Dodgers have actually seen the total go "under" in 8 of their last 10 in trying to avenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. Ranger Suarez is 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA for the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Julio Urias, who is 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA. The numbers/trends point to a lower-scoring affair, and all signs point to a classic "duel" as well. This number is indeed a tad high now, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-14-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
10* KINGS PUCKLINE (BOB) An unprecedented 3 Game 7's being played tonight, including this one between the Kings and Oilers. Edmonton rallied to force a pivotal Game 7 in this series in LA. This has been a back-and-forth series and I expect Game 7 to be the most competitive so far. Edmonton's weakness is on the defensive end, and that's where Jonathan Quick and the Kings have the clear advantage. They say defense wins championships. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, my strongest NHL play of the night will be to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket! AAA Sports |
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05-14-22 | Yankees v. White Sox +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
8* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The White Sox had won 7 of 8 before dropping the first 2 of this series. They fell 15-7 in the first game and 10-4 yesterday. I expect a much tighter affair here. Jordan Montgomery is 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA for the Yanks. He's been solid. Dallas Keuchel is 2-3 with a 6.86 ERA for the White Sox. He's uncharacteristically struggled so far. Let's not overreact to either starters' performance to this point though. Note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge B2B losses to an opponent. To say this is a "revenge" game as well would be an understatement, as the Yanks have won 8 of the L9 in this series. I say this one comes down to the wire; grab the ChiSox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-13-22 | Flames v. Stars +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 38 h 27 m | Show | |
8* STARS PUCKLINE (SPECIAL) I play underdogs. I play totals. I also play favorites. Wagering on sports is about finding value, whether it's an underdog, a total or a favorite. Here I expect a highly competitive affair, one that'll likely be decided late, or even in extras. Because of that, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket. Neither offense has looked great in this series. Dallas though is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Look for a tight, competitive affair; the play is Dallas on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (GOM) The NBA would love to see a Game 7 here. I believe it's going to happen. That said, my recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. The Celtics lost 110-107 in Game 5, but I expect this series to move to a pivotal Game 7. Giannis Antetokounmpo was great with 40 points, while Jayson Tatum scored 34 in a losing cause for the C's. These teams have alternated wins/losses since the series started. Note though that the Bucks are a poor 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite, while the Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog. Boston's superior defense in this critical game will prove to be the difference tonight; buckle up for a Game 7, the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports |
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05-13-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline last night and did not need the extra 1.5 runs. This game on Friday between the Mariners and Mets may follow suit, but once again the value here with getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Max Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Mets, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Mariners. The Mets are 9-0-1 in series this year, but regression is imminent at some point. Both starters are coming off losses. I think they're more evenly matched than what this large line is suggesting though. This one gets decided late or even in extras, so let's grab the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-12-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLILES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Philadelphia won 4-2 at Seattle yesterday, taking 2 of 3 from the Mariners, I believe the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling here. The Dodgers just lost 2 of 3 to the Pirates, including yesterday's 5-3 setback. These pitchers are a "wash" in my mind essentially. The Phillies see Zach Wheeler toe the slab, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson. Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA, while Anderson is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA. In fact, regression appears to be in order for Anderson in my estimation. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Phillies on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Scoring may be down in MLB and the NBA, but scoring is UP in the NHL Playoffs. That said, I expect Tampa to really clamp down defensively here as they try to avoid elimination. The Leafs are on the cusp of finally winning a playoff series after their 4-3 win in Game 5. Tampa though has seen the total go "under" the number in 8 of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Game 1 went "under" the number, but the last 4 have all flown "over." But with the home side buckling down defensively like I expect here, the value has now finally swung the other way as far as the total is concerned; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER (RED DRAGON) So far the "home floor advantage" has proven critical in this series. The Heat have won and covered in all three home games while the 76ers will be hoping they can pull off the same thing tonight as well with a victory here in Game 6. These teams have been following a familiar pattern with their totals as well, flip-flopping "overs" with "under" since Game 1. Off a lower-scoring battle in Game 5, we're expecting this pattern to continue here in a higher-scoring affair. The 76ers have to be the aggressor. Philadelphia can't take any lead for granted and it'll just have to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Also note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in 8 of its last 11 in trying to revenge a 20 points or greater SU/ATS loss against an opponent; this number is low, the play is the OVER! AAA Sports |
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +3 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 38 h 57 m | Show |
10* GRIZZLIES (ASSASSIN) No Ja? No problem! The Grizzlies have done exceptionally well without their superstar in the line-up and with their backs against the wall, I expect their best collective effort tonight. Many will be pulling the trigger on GS here, thinking that without Morant, Memphis will struggle. But I think it'll be GS that struggles to put away this desperate home side. Memphis held the lead in the last game until the fourth quarter. Don't expect that to happen again here. Also note that Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. In a contest that I see being decided in the final moments, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Memphis! AAA Sports |
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05-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES (IL RL GOY) The bottom line here is, I believe that the over-achieving Miles Mikolas is poised for some regression here after his sparkling start for the Cardinals. The Orioles have been decent, especially on the mound. They're 4th in the AL East currently. Spencer Watkins gets the nod to start things off for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 3.22 ERA over 5 starts this season, posting 10 K's and 10 walks. Mikolas is 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA over 6 games, with 28 K's and 7 walks. Interestinly though, the Cards are just 1-6 in their last 7 vs. the AL East. Watkins has been at his best on the road with a 2.70 ERA and in a contest that I believe could even go to extra innings, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the exrta 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -129 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
10* RANGERS (DESTRUCTION) The Rangers have their backs against the wall. They were favored to win this series, but they've uncharacteristically struggled on both ends of the ice. Now down 3-1, I expect New York to extend this series at least one more game. The Pens took Game 4 by a score f 7-2, but note that the Rangers are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last 8 in trying to revenge a 5 goals or greater loss to an opponent. The Pens are still also just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Igor Shesterkin is an amazing talent and I look for the Rangers' netminder to bounce back here; the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports |
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05-10-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10* KINGS PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN) This has been a wild series so far. The Kings won Game 1 by a sore of 4-3. The Oilers then Game 2 by a score of 6-0 and Game 3 by a score of 8-2. The Kings then bounced back and took Game 4 by a score of 4-0. Very unpredictable. The Oilers average 3.48 GPG, which ranks 7th, but they're Achilles heel has been their play on the defensive end where they allow 3.06 GPG. The Kings average 2.87 and allow just 2.83. They say defense wins championships. We're seeing this right now in both the NHL and in the NBA as being true in the playoffs. I think Game 5 will be the most competitive so far, so in a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket; the play is the Kings on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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05-10-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (RED DRAGON) The Mavericks were a Top 5 defense in the regular season, and they've been fantastic so far in this series against the favored Suns as they enter off B2B victories, including a 111-101 win in Game 4. So far home floor advantage has proved critical in this series, but I'll say it's more about Dallas making adjustments after going down 0-2. Those adjustments and success will continue here in Game 3, and I'll argue that it has nothing to do with the venue, but more about the overall approach Dallas is employing now. If you're wagering on this game, you know the cast of characters and the strengths and weaknesses. The momentum as turned and this Dallas team is going to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. While I do think an outright win is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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05-10-22 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* UNDER (DESTRUCTION) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games leading into this one, but we can expect that direction to change tonight finally. Milwaukee has seen the total go "over" in 6 of its last 7 (including in yesterday's 10-5 defeat here.) The Brewers have lost 3 straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in 6 of their last 8 after three or more losses in a row. Cincinnati enters having seen the total go "over" in 8 straight. Let's not overreact to these starters early numbers. The home side goes with Hunter Greene, who is 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA. He gave up 5 home runs to the Brewers last Thursday. Greene is the Reds' top rookie prospect and I expect him to settle down here in the rematch. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, who is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA so far this season. Peralta has to be feeling confident today though, as he's 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 15 career games vs. Cincinnati. All signs point to a lower-scoring "under" between these teams finally on Tuesday! AAA Sports |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
10* GRIZZLIES (ASSASSIN) Why is this line so large suddenly? Because Grizzlies' star Ja Morant is injured. Memphis was going to get destroyed in Game 3 whether Morant went down or not though. It was a bad game overall for Memphis. The Grizzlies have always done really well without their star in the line-up though and I expect them to rally here and use the "next man up" mentality. The good news that's flying under the radar though for Memphis is that Dillon Brooks will be back after serving a 1-game suspension. The Warriors are in the drivers seat again in this series, but I expect a much more competitive affair in Game 4. Note that Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS loss of 20 or more points. I say Golden State wins, but the determined Grizzlies comfortably cover with the large spread they've been afforded; the play is Memphis! AAA Sports |
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05-09-22 | Flames v. Stars +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -195 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
8* STARS PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra periods, I'm going to lay the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket. The Stars have looked great over the L2 games, winning 4-2 last time out. The Flames were great during the regular season, but they're a much better home team overall. Both teams have great goaltending and defense, so that area's a "wash." The difference here though is that Dallas is 6-2 in its last 8 as a home dog in the +130 to +155 range. Lay the price, the play is the Stars on the puckline! AAA Sports |
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05-09-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (GOW) Cleveland has won 7 of its last 8. It just took 3 of 4 from Toronto. The Guardians fly in under the radar here as well. The White Sox have won 5 in a row. They just finished sweeping the Red Sox, all tight games, including yesterday's 3-2 victory. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA for the Guardians, while Michael Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.17 ERA for the White Sox. Two good pitchers. Let's not overreact to their numbers at this point of the season, and instead classify them as a "wash." Chicago is overpriced here if that's the case. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* PHILADELPHIA (ASSASSIN) The 76ers are clearly a "different" team with Joel Embiid in the line-up. With a chance to tie up this series, I look for Philadelphia's big man to help key his team to another win at home. Jimmy Butler had 33 points in Game 3 for the Heat, but this 76ers team does indeed look much better at home, especially on the defensive end. The rest of the Heat struggled to shoot, and I expect that to be the case again here. Miami took full advantage in Game's 1 and 2, but now the shoe is on the other foot. Embiid is once again listed as questionable, but with that first awkward game out of the way, we can expect the MVP candidate to be much stronger here in Game 4 all around. Look for the 76ers to dial up the pressure even more and lay these short points with confidence! AAA Sports |
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05-08-22 | Maple Leafs +110 v. Lightning | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* LEAFS (BOB) These are two really good teams. Two teams filled with talent and experience. Their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win today. The Lightning are in rebound mode here after a 5-2 loss in Game 3. Revenge? It works in some cases, but not here in my opinion. The Leafs (the players, coaches, the organization and its fan base), our without question the "hungrier" dog in this fight. The Leafs haven't won a playoff series in decades. Toronto will be risking life and limb again today and I think that's going to be the difference-maker. Tampa has depth and skill, but I say it's drive to win is now faltering. Expect Toronto's determination to win the day; the play is the Leafs! AAA Sports |
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05-08-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* NATIONALS RUNLINE (BOB) Washington managed the 7-3 win here yesterday. I think the home side is overvalued here as well on Sunday, and I expect some regression here finally as well from Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA so far this season for LA, but I expect his sparkling numbers to take a hit today. At the very least, I expect Erick Fedde to match Sandoval inning for inning. Fedde is 2-2 with 22 K's and 10 walks over 25 frames of work. He's also 3-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his career against the Junior Circuit. This one will be decided late or in extra innings, the play is the visitors on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-07-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -158 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Seattle won't be lacking for motivation here after losing 9 of its last 10. That includes both games to open this series. First they lost 4-3, then 8-7 last night. The M's allowed 3 runs in the top of the 9th and scored just 1 themselves to lose by 1 run again. While I do think an outright is possible here, I'm going to lay what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in our back pocket. The Rays come in on the other end of the spectrum, primed for a letdown after 5 straight wins. Drew Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA for the Rays, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA for the Mariners. These starters are essentially a "wash" in my eyes. In what should be another competitive affair, let's look for the desperate Mariners to find a way to deliver on the runline option tonight! AAA Sports |
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05-07-22 | Avalanche v. Predators +1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -130 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
10* PREDATORS PUCKLINE (BOB) Down 0-2, the Predators will throw their "best shot" at Colorado today. Much like the Bruins did last night in their Game 3 win at home against Carolina, I expect a completely different effort here from Nashville with the shift in venue. Note as well that the Predators are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge a one goal road loss against an opponent. Game 1 was a blowout, and quite frankly, Game 2 could have easily gone in Nashville's favor with a lucky bounce. Expect the Predators to once again keep Game 3 very competitive and because of that, the play here is to grab the home side on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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05-07-22 | Celtics +3 v. Bucks | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (RED DRAGON) This series is all tied up. Milwaukee won Game 1 in a blowout, and Boston returned the favor in Game 2. With the shift in venue though, I'm expecting a much tighter battle tonight. Khris Middleton is out indefinitely for the Bucks, and that's going to have an effect over the long-term. The Celtics have the league's top defender and Jason Tatum is a handful. The C's defended Giannis well in Game 2 and I'm expecting a similar effort here as well. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Boston! AAA Sports |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I think that'll change today with these two "stud" starters facing off in Arizona. The D-Backs had yesterday off, while the Rockies enter off a high-scoring 9-7 win at home over Washington. But as I mentioned off the start, I expect these two starters to steal most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The Rockies go with Chad Kuhl, who is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA. Merrill Kelly is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA this season for the Diamondbacks. Interestingly, each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but to that I say: that was then, and this is now! These two starters enter on top form and I expect that to help in driving this O/U number "under" the total once it's all said and done; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 210.5 | Top | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
10* OVER (RED DRAGON) Joel Embiid is probably out again for this game for Philadelphia, but if the supporting cast doesn't stand up in Game 3 and make some sort of noise, then this series is going to be over quick, fast and in a hurry. Tyrese Maxey did look phenomenal in the Game 2 loss for Philly finishing with 34 points. James Harden will be leaned on here to produce though as he's averaged only 18 PPG through the first 2 games. Note though that Philly has also seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 11 in trying to revenge a 15 points or greater road loss against an opponent. And for the Heat, they can smell the blood in the water. Even if Embiid does return, the big man will be far from 100% healthy. Miami's done well defensively over the first 2 games, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair with the shift in venue. This number is just a little too low; the play is hte over! AAA Sports |
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05-06-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* BRUINS (1ST RND. GOY) Just a plain old "common sense" play here with this one. The Bruins will be risking life and limb today to try and avoid the 0-3 hole. Carolina was great on the road this year, but even better at home. The Bruins are also 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. But, the Bruins have now lost 5 straight to Carolina after dropping all 3 regular season contests as well. Yes, Carolina will likely go on to win this series, but we can now expect Boston's best effor this evening. And in my estimation, that'll be more than enough to finally notch a victory; the play is the Bruins! AAA Sports |
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05-05-22 | Stars v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) Calgary opened up this series with a tight 1-0 victory, but we're expecting a much higher-scoring contest in the second game. Note that the Stars have seen the total go OVER the number in 7 of their last 9 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss against an opponet. Including their final 2 regular season games, the Flames have now seen the total go "under" the number in 3 straight, which is significant to note here, as Calgary has seen the total go OVER in 10 of its last 13 after playing to 3 or more straight UNDERS in a row. The stats/trends and overall situation all point to a much faster-paced and wide-open affair in Game 2; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat -8 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
10* HEAT (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia looked lost without Joel Embiid in its opener vs. Miami and I have a hard time seeing the 76ers doing much better in Game 2. In fact, it was the Heat that really started off slowly in Game 1, but then they found their footing and confidently closed out with the 106-92 victory. I'm expecting an even more loip-sided destruction in Game 2. There's zero chemistry between James Harden and the rest of his teammates, while Jimmy Butler and Miami are poised for a much bigger and more dominating effort in Game 2. Miami won't be taking it easy. It's going to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they try and break the 76ers' collective will. I just can't see the visitors doing anything on either end of the court without Embiid in the line-up; so lay the points! AAA Sports |
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05-03-22 | Stars +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10* STARS PUCKLINE (1ST RND. GOY) Dallas won the first meeting with the Flames by a score of 4-3 in OVERTIME, which was in Calgary, but then the Stars dropped the other 2 matchups. Dallas has 4 players that each have at least 24 goals, led by Jason Robertson. Jake Oettinger finished 30-15-1 with a 2.52 GAA and I think he'll be an "X" factor for sure tonight in our success. The Flames are led by Johnny Gaudreau, who had 40 goals this year. Jacob Markstrom finished 37-15-9 with a 2.22 GAA for the Flames. This one will be a tight, competitive battle, so let's grab the visitors on the puckline option! AAA Sports |
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05-03-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra innings, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Giants hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA, while the Dodgers counter with Julio Urias, who is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA. The Giants won 10 of 19 games in the season series last year and 6 of 10 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers ended San Fran's season in a 5-game NL Division series, so it's payback time tonight. I like Rodon to, at the very least, match Urias inning for inning. Because of that, the play here today is the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (DESTRUCTION) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I expect the home side to risk life and limb here to try and even up this series. Clearly, the last thing that Boston wants to do is head to Milwaukee in an 0-2 hole. The Bucks have been playing really well without star Khris Middleton since he went down with injury vs. the Bulls in the first game, but at some point they're going to have a small mental letdown in these playoffs, and I expect that moment to be this evening. "Rest" did lead to "rust" for Jayson Tatum and company after their 4 game sweep of the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee needed an extra game to take care of Chicago, and the Bucks just shot much more efficiently overall. Look for Boston to bounce back here in this super important Game 2 though, and for Milwaukee to be happy with the split that it's already earned; lay the points, the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 215.5 | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) I'm expecting a hard-fought battle in the opener of this series, but a very defensive one overall. Both teams advanced by taking out their opponents in 6 games in the first round. Dallas was without Luka Doncic for 3 games vs. Utah, but the Mavs still won in 6. Dallas only averaged 108 PPG during the regular season, but was Top 3 on the defensive end. If the Mavericks are going to win this series, they'll need another huge performance from Doncic of course, but they'll also have to do what they do best, and that's slow things down and clamp down defensively with plenty of half and full court pressure throughout. Phoenix averaged 114.8 PPG, but in three games vs. the Mavs this year, the Suns played well defensively, going 3-0 by winning 105-98, 112-104 and 109-101. This is going to be a slower-paced defensive affair; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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05-02-22 | Rays v. A's +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (GOM) Tampa Bay lost 2 of 3 to the Twins over the weekend and it's now scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 9 games. Oakland fans can empathize, as the A's are looking to rebound from 3 straight losses to the Guardians. They've now lost 6 of their last 8. Oakland took 3 of 4 from Tampa from April 11-14 and I expect the home side to find a way to deliver in the opener here as well. Tampa goes with Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He's off the best start of his career, going 6 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a win over the Mariners. Regression is now imminent after that gem in my opinion. The A's see Daulton Jefferies, who is 1-3 with 3.26 ERA, toe the slab. He gave up 5 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Giants on Tuesday. I look for him to settle down here at home, where he posted a 2.90 ERA last year. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra's let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Oakland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-02-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER (RED DRAGON) I think the opener of this series will be a very defensive one. Boston averages 3.09 GPG, which ranks just 15th. It's been better on the defensive end though, allowing only 2.66 GPG, which ranks 4th. Carolina averages 3.38 GPG, which ranks 9th, while conceding 2.44, which ranks 1st. Defense wins championships. That's true in all North American sports. These teams have the goaltending and defense to make a serious run at the cup. These teams are rested and ready for battle. Expect that to translate into an ultra-competitive and overall defensive affair in Game 1 of this series; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
10* GRIZZLIES (ASSASSIN) Two teams which had more difficulty than they likely expected in the first round, have advanced to the second round. Each looked great at times, and showed vulnerability in others. The Grizzlies aren't getting enough respect on their own floor is the bottom line for me here though. Golden State has been off since Wednesday. The Warriors went just 1-3 against the Grizzlies in the regular season. The quick turnaround works in the Grizzlies favor in my opinion. Look for Ja Morant to strike first over Stephen Curry and company; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports |
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05-01-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (BEST OF BEST) Chicago comes in desperate for a win, as it's dropped 8 of its last 10. That includes both games to open up this series, falling 11-1 and 9-1. I'm expecting a much better effort here from the Cubs on Sunday. Milwaukee enters complacent after 5 straight wins. Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA for the Brewers. Regression is imminent in my estimation though. Marcus Stroman is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA so far for Chicago. I say that Stroman settles down here and gets back on track with his best effort of the season. Brewers' star Christian Yellich said it best himself after yesterday's win: "The thing about baseball is you have to keep grinding, keep putting in the work and keep trying to get better." Expect that logic to pay dividends for the visiting side today though. That said, let's grab the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-01-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Toronto took the first game by a score of 2-1. I had the Astros on the runline in that one. Houston then responded with an 11-7 victory yesterday. I think the Astros are the sharp wager again here, but once again I'll recommend to play on the runline option. Houston goes with Framber Valdez, who is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, while Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA. Guasman faced the Astros once last year and allowed 3 earned runs and 6 hits with 2 walks over 4 1/3's frames of work and in 4 career outings against them he's just 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Valdez is just 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in 2 career starts against Toronto. These pitchers are a "wash." Look for Houston's strong bullpen and hitting line-up to put it in another position to win this game outright; that said, the official play is to grab the Astros on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-30-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Chicago looks to bounce back after yesterday's humbling 11-1 defeat. Note that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge an 8 runs or greater road loss against an opponent though. Milwaukee on the other hand is interestingly just 2-6 in its last 8 after a 10 runs or greater victory in its last outing. Chicago sends lefty Justin Steele to the hill, and he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA. Lauer though is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 career outings against the Cubs, which includes 3 starts. I like the hungrier visiting side here, but for this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Chicagao on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-30-22 | Braves v. Rangers +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Bryce Elder is 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA for the Braves. He'll have hundreds of friends and family members in the stands today watching the Texas native. Dane Dunning is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers and he'll look to play spoiler on the rookie. Elder had a decent debut, but in 2 starts since he's struggled big time, not getting past the 5th inning, walking 11 and striking out 7 over a cominbed 9 innings of work. Dunning makes his 5th start of the year and he's held his opposition to 3 or fewer runs in each of those outings. Look for Dunning to go deeper than his counterpart and for the Rangers to make this one exciting; grab Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-30-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Houston's offense got back on track in a big way in yesterday's 11-7 victory. I think it can keep the foot on the gas here. But for this reasonable mid-sized price, I think we're getting unreal value on the visitors on the runline option. Luis Garcia is 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA with 14 K's over 12 innings for Houston. Garcia coughted up 5 runs off 5 hits with 6 K's over 6 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision vs. the Jays on Sunday. He's 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 career outings vs. Toronto though. The home side counters with the erratic Jose Berrios, who is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA this season, but who is a sub-par 3-3 with a 5.46 ERA in six career starts vs. Houston. I think an outright victory is possible, but in the end let's take on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* WOLVES (ASSASSIN) This has been a back-and-forth series. With their backs against the wall though, and especially because their playing at home, I look for the Wolves to dig deep here and to extend this series to a decisive Game 7. Clearly with a line like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are pretty evenly matched. And they are. But Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games as an underdog in the +0.5 to +3.5 points range. Both teams are healthy and their strengths and weaknesses are well known. I think the "home floor" advantage proves to be the difference-maker tonight, so buckle up and get ready for our first Game 7 of the Playoffs; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports |
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04-29-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Madison Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 1.00 ERA for Arizona, while Adam Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Cards. Arizona sneaks in under the radar here after winning 3 of its last 5. Bumgarner gave up just 1 run over 5 innings in his last outing. In his last start Wainwright was shelled for 4 runs off 8 hits over 5 innings. Recent form is a factor that's being overlooked here and we're going to take advantage. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-29-22 | Mariners v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In a game that I believe will be decided late, or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Mariners hand the ball to Matt Brash, who is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA. He's a rookie with 3 career appearances and who has yet to pitch past the 5th inning. The home side counters with Elieser Hernandez, who is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA. He's never faced Seattle. I like Hernandez here though, who has a 6.05 ERA on the road, but a 3.60 ERA at home. The Marlins are riding a 5 game win streak, while the M's have lost 2 in a row. Great value here getting the extra run-and-a-half; the play is Miami on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
8* PELCIANS (SPECIAL) This has been a back and forth series. The Suns are still without Devin Booker and while the managed a victory in Game 5, I believe the Pelicans will answer here on their home floor. The stats back our hypothesis as well, as note that New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. I say home floor DOES matter in Game 6; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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04-28-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* 76ers (ASSASSIN) I say Philadelphia and Doc Rivers finally get the "monkey" off their backs. Rivers has been involved with three different teams that have blown a 3-1 series lead. Philadelphia itself has just had issues with Toronto over the last five years and would love nothing more than to end this series here and now. I say that James Harden plays his best game of this series and I expect Philadelphia to run away with this one early, and never take the foot off the gas pedal. Toronto's never say die attitude runs out of gas tonight. Note as well that the 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge B2B SU/ATS losses against an opponent. Lay the points, the play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -142 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* JAYS (SPECIAL) This is a 4 game series, and after taking the first two, the Jays fell 7-1 yesterday. Note though that Toronto is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent that held it to one or fewer runs. Garrett Whitlock is 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA for the Red Sox, while Alex Mahoah is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA for the Jays. Manoah gets the nod at home here for sure. Whitlocks numbers are unsustainable and major regression is in order here. Considering the above info, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) These teams were really good defensively in the regular season, so it's a bit of a surprise that all four games so far have flown "over" the posted number. For a number of different reasons though, I think this Game 5 total is now a bit too high. Denver managed the 126-121 win as a 4.5-point underdog in Game 4 to keep its hopes alive. The Nuggets have a recent history of coming back in series when down 3-1 and after watching the Raptors win on the road last night to force a Game 6, Nikola Jokic and company will be confident here that they can do the same. To do that though, they'll have to play tight defense and once again run their offense through their reigning MVP. Golden State has actually seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* OVER Astros/Rangers. While the first two games of this series have fallen "under" the number, all signs point to the "grudge match" being a much higher-scoring contest. Texas won 6-2 in the first game, while Houston bounced back in yesterday's 5-1 victory. Texas has now seen the total go "under" in four straight, which is significant to note in our case as the Rangers have seen the total go "over" in 9 of their last 12 after playing to 3 or more straight "overs" in a row. Christian Javier is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Astros (has made 3 relief appearances.) The Rangers see Glen Otto toe the slabe and he's 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. These early sparkling numbers are unrealistic and unsustainable. Look for the regression to be swift for each. Considering all of the above information, this number is a little low in my opinion, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL on the UNDER Red Sox/Jays. These teams have played to a couple higher-scoring games to open this series, but I expect a lower-scoring "duel" here on Wednesday. The Red Sox go with Michael Wacha, and he's 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA so far this season. He'll be opposed by the Jays' Ross Stripling, who is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA. Boston has also seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge B2B losses against an opponent. This number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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04-26-22 | Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* WOLVES (ASSASSIN) So far, this has been a competitive series. These have been fun and exciting and competitive games. I don't think anything will change for Game 5 either between these deadlocked clubs. Minnesota won the last game by a score of 119-118. Over the first three games, Wolves' big man Karl Anthony Towns had been shut down, but he finally exploded for 33 points and 14 boards in Game 4. I expect him to build off that performance. With even more attention being put onto the big man, the Wolves' depth comes into play here as a considerable strength. Minnesota could have won Game 3 as well, but had an epic collapse in the fourth-quarter. For all intents and purposes, the Wolves could have been up 3-1 at this point. In what I expect to be another back-and-forth affair, I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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04-26-22 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (BOB) Chicago has lost 7 in a row. I say that streak ends in emphatic fashion this evening. Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as KC has lost 4 in a row. The Royals just got swept by the Mariners over the weekend. They hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, and he's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over 2 starts. He went a disastrous 1-2 with a 16.20 ERA over three appearances vs. the White Sox last year. The bullpen has a collective 4.11 ERA and they average just 3.1 RPG. The White Sox have been swept by the Twins and Guardians. I like Dallas Keuchel here though at home in this important game. He's 1-1 with 15.00 ERA so far this year (gave up 8 runs in his last start.) I think the veteran settles down here though. Chicago is also 4-0 in its last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Look for the White Sox to not only win this game, but to do so big a significant margin; the play is Chicago on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-26-22 | Padres v. Reds OVER 8 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) Two teams in need of a victory collide on Tuesday night and I'm expecting some runs to come across the plate. The Padres are 10-7 overall and out to snap a 2-game road losing streak. The Reds are 3-13. San Diego is off a 10-2 loss to the Angels, while the Reds are off a confidence-building 4-1 win over St. Louis. Joe Musgrove has been sharp for SD in the early going by going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA, but I think regression is finally in store here. Reds' starter Reiver Sanmartin has struggled to open the season though, going 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA. The Reds are just 1-9 the L10 in this series, so they'll be motivated to snap that trend. The Reds allow 5.40 RPG at home and the Padres have averaged 5.33 RPG in their last 3 vs. Cincinnati. Expect these high-scoring trends to continue on Tuesday night; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-25-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Dodgers have won 3 of their last 4. The Diamondbacks have lost 2 of their last 3 games. Arizona has yet to win a series yet this year, so they'll be hoping to catch the Dodgers a bit complacent here in the opener. And with Merrill Kelly on the hill for them tonight, I say that the D-Backs have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. The Dodgers are doing great. Their stats confirm that they're among the best in almost every facet, but betting on baseball is not only about betting on strong or weak stats, it's about picking and choosing great "spots" and "situations." This is a great spot bet on the runline for a number of reasons. I think LA is primed for letdown, while clearly Arizona is desperate to get a win streak going. These pitehrs are evenly matched too. I think Kelly can match Walker Buehler inning for inning. Buehler is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA. He gave up 3 runs and 8 hits over 5 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Braves in his last outing. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA for Arizona, who has given up just 1 run over 3 starts spanning 15 1/3's innings of work. I think this is a great spot and situation overall to pull the trigger on the hungry D-Back on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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04-25-22 | Jazz +3 v. Mavs | 77-102 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
8* PLAY on the Jazz (SPECIAL) Jordan Clarkson dropped in 25 points for the Jazz off the bench in Game 4 and he helped seal the deal for Utah in its 100-99 victory. In another contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Both teams have struggled at times in this series, but Utah's defense has held up. It ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense during the regular season. Dallas only shot 43% in Game 4. On the season the Mavs only rank 24th in averaging 108 PPG. Luka Doncic has returned, but his health is still a bit of a question mark. As I stated earlier, this one is coming down to the wire; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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04-25-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (ASSASSIN) I say the Nets are cooked. I say Kevin Durant won't answer here. I say Jason Tatum is underrated and overlooked. With a chance to put the final nail in the coffin of what will be considered one of the biggest busts of all time, I believe the Celtics go in for the "Death Blow" this evening. The Nets have been terrible in all facets, especially considering they turn the ball over 16 times per game. Brooklyn has also been allowing an average of 112.7 points per game to Boston. Boston has the defense to slow down Durant and I say Tatum has another huge outing as well. Clearly, the outright win is the prediction, but grab as many points as you can as well with Boston! AAA Sports |
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04-24-22 | Brewers +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* BREWERS RUNLINE (RED DRAGON) Ultimately, I think we're getting great value with the Brewers on the runline option here. This is a very reasonable mid-sized price to have to lay to have an extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. Milwaukee hands the ball to Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA, while the home side sees Aaron Nola toe the slab. If this was four years go, Nola would be a -250 favorite. Now he enters with a 1-2. 5.52 ERA record. Milwaukee has won five of six, including yesterday's contest 5-3 and while an outright victory obviously isn't out of the realm of possibility today either, the play is Milwaukee on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-24-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) I think these starters are great, but the overall situation will lead to this total eclipsing the posted number by the latter frames. The Dodgers see Clayton Kershaw toe the slab and he's 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Sean Manea gets the call for the home side and he's 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA. These teams have been struggling to score, and these starters have opened up the season well. Those facts though have the public convinced that this will once again be a "pitchers duel." This perception though has driven this O/U line a little lower than I think it normally would be, and the value has now definitely swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. A great situtaional value play on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) This has been a high-scoring series. If the Nuggets have any hopes of salvaging at least a single game in this series, they're going to have to throw a proverbial monkey-wrench into this Golden State offensive rythym. The Nuggets have actually seen the total go "under" in 9 of their last 12 after 3 or more SU/ATS losses in a row as well. Golden State is now favored to win the Championship, but I think a small mental lapse is in the cards. Much like the 76ers last night in Toronto. Nikola Jokic isn't going down without a fight either. And clearly the Nuggets will be running their offense through their All Star tonight. For all the reasons listed above, I say this number is now too high; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +3 | Top | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
10* WOLVES (FIRST RND. GOY) This has been an interesting series. And what I personally find interesting about it is that Memphis has somehow figured out a way to slow down Wolves' big man Karl Anthony Towns. He's also struggled a bit at times. That said, I simply can't see this struggling trend of futility lasting much longer. Minnesota had a huge lead in Game 3 and then it inexplicably came up short. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, but as good as Memphis has looked over its last two games, it's still very inexperienced. This is uncharted territory, coming from behind in the playoffs on the road to take a series lead. I say that Towns and company bounce back here and take a page out of their "Game 1 playbook." Clearly the outright is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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04-23-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (BOB) I think Syndergaard is overvalued here. LA is 8-5, while Baltimore is 4-9, but I believe these starting pithers are more evenly matched than what this huge line is suggesting. Spencer Watkins is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Orioles, while Noah Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA for the Angels. Yes, the Orioles have struggled to plate runs this season, but off yesterday's 5-3 victory, I say the visiting side builds momentum off that performance. Let's lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pockets; the play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-23-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) LA is coming off a 6-1 win last night, but I expect a classic "slug-fest" on Saturday night. The Dodgers have won ten of their first 13 games. Freddie Freeman is hitting .346. Mookie Betts hit a two run shot last night. Tyler Andreson has been decent for LA, allowing 2 runs off 4 hits with 8 K's so far this season. San Diego won't be lacking for motivation obviously. It's actually seen the total go 7-2 to the over in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 1 run or less. Yu Darvish counters for the home side, he's put up on horrible start, and one great one. Off a gem against the Braves, will this pattern continue? I say yes. This number is now a bit TOO low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | Top | 111-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
10* BULLS (RED DRAGON) What do you base your selections on? I have different ways of handicapping the regular season than I do in the Playoffs. Being successful in the playoffs is about making adjustments from game-to-game. That's true for handicappers as well. With Khris Middleton out, the Bucks are simply not the same team. Chicago has already gotten the home floor advantage after splitting out in Milwaukee and I expect the Bulls to push the pace here from start to finish. We could break down all the stats and look at every indidivual player matchup, but for me it's as simple as Middleton being out for the Bucks. And while I obviously think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is CHICAGO! AAA Sports |
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04-22-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Cardinals are 7-4 and the Reds are 2-11. The Reds only managed 5 hits in a 6-0 loss at the Padres on Wednesday, but Cinncy has seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 10 after a shutout road loss. St. Louis is off a 5-0 road loss at Miami, after taking the first 2 games. The Cards though have seen the total go "over" the number in 6 of their last 8 off a shutout road loss. The Reds hand the ball to rookie Hunter Greene, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA (allowed 3 homers in 10 1/3's innings so far), while the Cards go with Steve Matz, who is 1-1 with a 7.26 ERA after getting shelled for 7 runs over his first 8 2/3's innings of work. Considering all of the above information, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-22-22 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Cardinals are 7-4 and the Reds are 2-11. The Reds only managed 5 hits in a 6-0 loss at the Padres on Wednesday, but Cinncy has seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 10 after a shutout road loss. St. Louis is off a 5-0 road loss at Miami, after taking the first 2 games. The Cards though have seen the total go "over" the number in 6 of their last 8 off a shutout road loss. The Reds hand the ball to rookie Hunter Greene, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA (allowed 3 homers in 10 1/3's innings so far), while the Cards go with Steve Matz, who is 1-1 with a 7.26 ERA after getting shelled for 7 runs over his first 8 2/3's innings of work. Considering all of the above information, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
10* NUGGETS (RED DRAGON) With their backs against the wall, I like the Nuggets to bounce back here at home. Denver plays better at home and it's also 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge 2 straight SU/ATS losses against an opponent. Golden State is now favored to win the Championship over Phoenix, but we'll see how well the Warriors fare on the road in this difficult venue. During the regular season Denver was No. 8 in scoring with 113 PPG. It's been an ugly start for the Nuggets to this series, but we can expect their best effort and another huge game from Nikola Jokic in the process; while the outright is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The first 2 games of this series have been low-scoring, but I'm expecting some fireworks here tonight finally. The Cardinals have taken both games, winning 5-1 and 2-0 (that's important for us to note here though, as Miami has seen the total go "over" in 7 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) Each starting pitcher has gotten out to a decent start to the 2022 season, but regression is in store for both in my estimation. St. Louis goes with Jordan Hicks, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, working a total of 4 innings between 2 games. Pablo Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA. He most recently blanked the Phillies over 5.1 innings in his most recent outing. I'll not read too much into either of these pitchers' early numbers. The value has now finally swung the other way; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | White Sox v. Guardians +134 | 3-6 | Win | 134 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
8* GUARDIANS (SPECIAL) Cleveland took both games of yesterday's double-header and I believe that it's going to post a series sweep here today. The Guardians are undervalued again here by the oddsmakers. Dylan Cease is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA for the White Sox, while Zach Plesac is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA for the Guardians. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The Guardians have ground to make up and getting them at "plus money" in such an evenly matched game, we'll follow the value here and grab the home side in what I believe will be another convincing victory; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOTAL ASSASSIN) What do you base your picks on? Do you break down every single individual matchup, look at every stat possible? I do that for some games, but other times I absolutely feel that a simpler approach is the best way to handicap a contest. I thought Game 1 would be a competitive game, but not such a lower-scoring defensive one in the Bucks' 93-86 victory. Several players struggled (uncharacteristically), including Chicago's DeMar DeRozan, who went just 6-of-25 from the floor in Game 1. Expect a much more efficient game here as Chicago pushes the pace from start to finish; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER (AL TOTAL BOB) New York has been trading wins and losses over its last 8 games. It'll have to plate some runs here today if it want to avoid that patten, as the Yanks took the first game of this series by a score of 4-2 yesterday. The Yanks have seen the total go "under" in 5 straight, which is important for us to note here, as they've seen the total go "over" 6 of their last 8 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. Detroit's seen the total go "under" in 4 straight. It's lost 2 straight. Luis Severino has been great for New York, he enters with a 1-0, 2.25 ERA. Regression seems imminent at some point though. And Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to find his footing for his new team, he enters with an 0-1, 5.87 ERA and 1.83 WHIP for the Tigers. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-20-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Orioles are hungry to snap a 2-game slide. Baltimore has played better in "day" games this year, going 2-3 with wins over the Yanks and Brewers. They're just 1-5 in night contests. The A's are 3-3 in day games. The A's hand the ball to Daulton Jeffries, who is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA, while the Orioles counter with Jordan Lyles, who is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA. Lyles is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 3 road starts vs. Oakland and I think he can easily match Jeffries inning for inning today. And in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued underdog. In this case though, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-19-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
8* BRAVES RUNLINE (8*) I think the defending champs are well worth the price of admission to grab the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. They've lost 2 straight, so they'll be eager to reverse their fortunes here in Chavez Ravine. Max Fried is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA for Atlanta, while Walker Buehler is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Let's not read too much into either pitchers early numbers. All stats, both good and bad, have to be taken with a small grain of salt over the first month. I say Fried settles down here. The Dodgers have won 6 straight, but I think they'll have their hands full today with this determined home side; the play is ATL on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +10 v. Suns | Top | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
10* PELICANS (ASSASSIN) While my play on the Pels came up short in Game 1, I absolutely expect them to bounce back here and to keep this one tight up until the final moments. New Orleans fell 110-99 in Game 1, but note that it's 7-3 ATS in its last 10 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or less points in. Clearly, Phoenix is the better team in every regard, but I don't think it deserves to be a double-digit favorite in Game 2. We'll look for the Pelicans to give their best shot and while that will almost assuredly not be good enough to pull off the outright upset, it'll be more than enough to pull off the comfortable cover; the play is New Orleans! AAA Sports |
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04-19-22 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOP) The Yanks Gerrit Cole is vastly overrated. He's 0-0 with a 5.59 ERA. He most recently allowed 3 runs over 5 innings in a no-decision to Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 2 home runs off him. He's had plenty of success against the Tigers throughout his career, but I say that that was then, and this is now. The Yanks won't be lacking for motivation today after dropping 2 of 3 at Baltimore. They lost 5-0 on Sunday (note that New York though has seen the total go "over" the number in 9 of its last 13 after a shutout loss in its previous outing) and then had yesterday off. "We've got to find a way to get on the board and support our pitching," manager Aaron Boone assessed. The Tigers haven't played since Saturday, but Tyler Alexander is going to have his hands full as well against this determined visiting side. He most recently allowed 3 runs over 5 innings vs. Boston. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera needs just 5 more hits to reach the 3,000 mark, and while he may not achieve that tonight, he has a big opportunity to do that during this series. When you add it all up, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10* NUGGETS (GOW) The Warriors got the better of Denver by a score of 123-107 in Game 1, but I think that the Nuggets will, at the very least, keep Game 2 close enough to comfortably cover with the larger spread that they've been afforded tonight. Jordan Poole had 30 points for the Warriors in Game 1, going 5 of 7 from range. Suffice it to say, I don't expect lightning to "strike twice" for Poole and the Warriors this evening. Nikola Jokic was a force in Game 1 for Denver, finishing with 25 points and I expect him to have an even bigger impact this evening. Denver shot terrible from 3-point range as well in Game 1, finishing 31.5%, well below their nomral 35% clip. Again, we can expect things to "normalize" in that department for Denver this evening as well. I say the Nuggets throw their best shot they have; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports |