Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-17-20 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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08-17-20 | Lightning -153 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay got a much needed win in Game 3. They had our endorsement and never trailed en route to their second 3-2 victory of the series. They outshot the Blue Jackets 2:1 (34-17) and concerning for Columbus is whether or not the team may have “run out of gas.” Coach John Tortorella seemed to think so based on his post-game comments. Remember that the Blue Jackets have already gone through a five-game qualification series as well as the 5OT marathon in Game 1. Up 2-1 in the series, the Lightning have confidence against the team that pulled off that shocking sweep in last year’s playoffs. They have outshot Columbus in every game so far. To that point, the Blue Jackets have been outshot in six of their eight games since the restart. They had only eight shots on goal over the last 50 minutes of Game 3. While they had Sunday off, that’s probably not enough to recharge. Undervalued because of what happened in last year’s playoffs, the Lightning win again and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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08-16-20 | Blues v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Blues have still not won a game since the restart. This is a far cry from last season’s run to the Stanley Cup when they caught fire in January and never looked back. When the season stopped, they did have the most points in the Western Conference. But by losing all three round robin games, they fell to the 4-seed for the playoffs. They’re now in an 0-2 hole to upstart Vancouver and tonight is about as “must win” as you can get from the St. Louis side of things. But not sure we can trust them in this spot given the lack of life we’ve seen so far. The Blues are averaging just 2.2 goals on 27.8 shots per game. Vancouver is averaging a similar number of shots per game (actually less, 27.2) but has somehow parlayed that into 3.5 goals per game. We don’t see St. Louis turning things around tonight (not at the offensive end at least) while Vancouver can keep up its current scoring clip. Blues are 6-1 Under on Sundays this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-16-20 | Dodgers -175 v. Angels | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers are clearly too much for the Angels and can finish off the sweep this afternoon. Last night’s game went 10 innings after the Dodgers tied it late. This one should go smoother behind Dustin May, who has twice gone off as a favorite of -200 or more, so this is a good price on him. The Dodgers, as was to be expected, have been very dominant this season. They’ve scored 55 more runs than they have allowed. No other team has a run diff of better than +33 and only two (Yankees, Twins) are better than +20. While the Dodgers have won four in a row, the Angels have lost three straight. Teheran is not well-suited to start in this spot, not just because of the 13.49 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, but also due to the fact he has never beaten the Dodgers in eight tries and has a 5.35 ERA against them. This is a very one-sided matchup as the Dodgers are already 7-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-16-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -130 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO So Texas pitching has had virtually zero problems adjusting to Coors Field this weekend. Friday saw starter Lance Lynn throw a complete game and it was just the eighth time in the history of this park that a team was held to two hits or fewer over a full nine-inning game. The Rockies did a bit better at the plate on Saturday, but still ended up wasting an early 2-0 lead and lost 6-4. The Rangers have won a season-high four straight, which is a bit perplexing to us as this has not been a good road team the last few seasons and they’re still -2.0 rpg outside of Arlington this year. The Rockies are 12-8 and have outscored teams by 19 runs this year while Texas is 10-9 but has been outscored by 11 runs. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep Sunday behind Jon Gray. Gray was hit hard his last time out, but should bounce back here as the Rangers are only hitting .217 for the year. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA (39.0 IP, 8 ER) in six career interleague starts at Coors Field, limiting American League batters to a .159 average. Allard has looked pretty good for Texas but has never pitched at Coors before. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-16-20 | Stipe Miocic v. Daniel Cormier OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 204 h 48 m | Show |
8* ON OVER 2.5 ROUNDS This is the rubber match for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World. Both have a TKO victory over the other. Miocic had the more recent of the two, thus he opened as the slight favorite here, though those odds have flipped as of press time. That fight took place almost one year ago to the day with Miocic regaining the very title he lost to Cormier back in July of ‘18 at UFC 226. Those are Stipe’s only two fights of the previous two years. Cormier has said he’s retiring, win or lose, after this fight although that’s something we’ve heard from him before. The first fight between the two saw Cormier end things in Round 1. The rematch went to the 4th round. Before losing the title back to Miocic, Cormier did have a successful title defense in November of 2018 against Derrick Lewis, which he won via rear-naked choke in Round 2. What’s amazing about the first two fights is neither has been able to execute more than one successful takedown. That being said, all we need here is the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2 and we think that’s going to happen. Two of Miocic’s last three fights made it to the “Championship Rounds.” Meanwhile, five of Cormier’s last eight have gotten to the point that would be a winning ticket here. 8* on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS AAA |
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08-15-20 | Junior Dos Santos v. Jair Rozenstruik -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 203 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ROZENSTRUIK This isn’t the heavyweight battle everyone’s coming to see Saturday at UFC 252 (that would be the title fight of Miocic vs. Cormier), but it’s our favorite call of the year inside the Octagon. Rozenstruik enjoyed a breakout 2019 campaign by finishing Junior Albini, Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski & Alistair Overeem, all by KO, two of which came in Round 1. The Overeem knockout came with just four seconds left in a fight Rozenstruik may have otherwise lost. Unfortunately, “lady luck” then caught up with him in a 20 second KO defeat to Francis Ngannou back in May. Still, Rozenstruik has proven all he needs is “one punch” and we believe one punch is all he’ll need to dispatch former champ Junior Dos Santos. Dos Santos has found a way to remain relevant within the division but is coming off back to back losses to top contenders. One of them was a Rd 1 KO at the hands of Ngannou. Prior to experiencing that same fate (see above) Rozenstruik was a perfect 10-0 in his career, all but one win coming via knockout. Dos Santos is just 6-6 his L12 fights and his best days are clearly behind him. Even worse is that he’s been TKO’d in the last five losses. This is Rozenstruik’s coming out party and another KO finish is what we’re expecting here. 10* on ROZENSTRUIK AAA |
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08-15-20 | Lightning -170 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay thought it finally had gained the upper hand against arch-nemesis Columbus after a FIVE overtime victory in Game 1. Technically, the had. The win put the Lightning up 1-0 in the series. But then they lost Game 2 by a score of 3-1. The Blue Jackets really neutralized the Lightning’s offense in that one, giving up just the one goal in the first period. Obviously, in the back of Tampa Bay’s head is what happened last year - a shocking first round sweep at the hands of Columbus. Because they won Game 1, it can’t be a repeat, but the goal here is not to get eliminated by the same team two years in a row. The Lightning shouldn’t hang their heads too much though; they outshot the Blue Jackets in Game 2, 37-22. Game 1 it was an 88-63 edge in that regard (remember, 5 OT’s). Since the restart, the pattern for Columbus has been win one, lose one (they have yet to win or lose consecutive games. Tampa Bay also hasn’t lost two in a row. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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08-15-20 | Nationals -180 v. Orioles | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -180 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON The Nationals wrapped up a busy Friday with a 15-3 win over the Orioles. Just prior to that, these two teams had to complete a suspended game from Sunday. Baltimore won that 6-2 as they were ahead 5-2 in the sixth when play was halted. Despite winning the second game in such convincing fashion, it was a pretty “bad” day for Washington. They lost Stephen Strasburg after just 16 pitches due to a nerve issue. Second baseman Starlin Castro broke his wrist. Despite these injuries, we still like the Nats to roll again here on Sunday. Baltimore has definitely overachieved to this point. No one expected this 11-8 start which included six straight wins before the 15-3 loss yesterday. This has been the worst team in baseball the last two years. Nationals starter Pat Corbin has been sharp in three outings so are (2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) while the Orioles send Wojciechowski out and he’s got a 5.40 ERA. Washington now averages over 7.0 runs/game on the road. Baltimore is averaging less than four per game at home. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 232.5 | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER If Portland wins Saturday, then they move on and face the Lakers in the 1st round. If Memphis wins, then there’s another game tomorrow and the Grizzlies have to win that one too (to earn their shot at the Lakers). Memphis should (theoretically) be the more motivated side Saturday, but they are short-handed (no Jaren Jackson) and quite frankly haven’t played very well in the bubble (2-6 straight up and against the spread). The Trail Blazers have gone 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS and that’s how they passed Memphis for the 8th seed. We’re passing on the side in this one, but like the total as we figure there continues to be plenty of scoring as long as Damian Lillard and the Blazers are involved. Portland’s last five games have AVERAGED more than 250 total points. Lillard has scored more than 150 himself in the last three, which is obviously insane. The team is also very bad defensively as it has allowed more than 130 points in back to back games. These teams played to a 140-135 final (won by Portland) in the first game after the restart. While there was overtime, it was still 124-124 at the end of regulation. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-14-20 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Washington can’t like the way this series started. A 4-2 loss to the Islanders in Game 1 saw them give up all four goals in the span of 13 minutes as their own early 2-0 lead quickly went away. The loss was also the third in four games for the Capitals since the restart. Their only win was the final round robin game (vs. Boston) which kept them out of the 4-seed. New York is 4-1 and getting some surprising scoring punch with four or more goals scored in three of the past four games. The Isles didn’t have much trouble with the overmatched Panthers in the qualification round. Here, as falling into the early two-goal deficit should tell you, they will face more firepower. Washington’s offense has really yet to get going here in Toronto, but we feel it's only a matter of time. They average 3.4 goals per game for the year. The Over is 5-2 the last seven times these division foes have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-14-20 | Pirates v. Reds -193 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CINCINNATI Going by units lost, the Reds (-7.1) have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball so far. With playoff expansion (8 teams per league) this season, many thought this would be Cincinnati’s year to return to the postseason. Right now they’re just 8-11 and just took an embarrassing 9-6 loss to Pittsburgh at home yesterday. They did try and make a game of it late, scoring runs in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings, but falling into an early 9-0 hole was simply too much to overcome. Fortunately for the cause, Pittsburgh is not a team you’d expect to win two in a row. In fact, that hasn’t happened yet as the Pirates record is a league-worst 4-13. Sonny Gray has three of the Reds eight wins this year and he’ll be on the mound Friday, looking to improve his already stellar numbers (2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Over his first three starts, Gray allowed just 2 runs in 28 innings. Chad Kuhl will start for the Pirates. He’s worked as a reliever as well. He was okay in the first start, giving up just one run. But he made it through only 4 innings and the Pirates lost that game 17-13. That was also the last time the Bucs were off a win. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-14-20 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 103-107 | Win | 102 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER There’s really nothing to play for here unless you consider Oklahoma City’s official seeding for the playoffs. That really doesn’t matter though as they’re going to play Houston in the 1st round and with home court advantage not a factor, being the 4 or 5 seed is of no real importance. The Clippers are the 2-seed in the West and locked into a first round matchup with the Mavericks. They are 4-3 in the bubble after a 124-111 win over Denver Wednesday night secured them the 2-seed. The Thunder are also 4-3 and off a win as their reserves rallied from a 22-point deficit to beat Miami two days ago. All stars are going to sit this finale out. Interesting that the Clippers past five games have all gone Over, averaging 238.4 points/game. This is a much different kind of game though with nothing on the line and starters not playing. The Clippers have also faced some of the worst defensive teams here in the bubble. Oklahoma City is generally pretty good defensively. At the same time, it has shot just 42.1% the L5 games. Under is 44-19-1 the L64 games the Thunder have been underdogs. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS St. Louis, who won the Stanley Cup last June and had the most points in the Western Conference at the time of the stoppage, has not won a game since March. They are 0-3-1 since the restart and this series with Vancouver got off to an auspicious start Wednesday. They were beaten 5-2. It was the Canucks 4th straight win and they’ve scored 17 goals. Certainly, it feels as if the Canucks have the momentum right now. But it would obviously be foolish to write off the Blues. The third period has been the problem thus far. The Cup Champs have been outscored 9-0 in the final 20 minutes of the previous four games. They have a +2 goal differential in the first two periods. In the round robin, they lost in the final second of regulation and another game in a shootout. The other saw them jump out to an early 2-0. In Game 1 vs. Vancouver, they had a 31-22 edge in shots on goal. Look for the Blues to reverse their late game woes in Game 2 and tie this series up. Play on ST LOUIS AAA |
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08-14-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers OVER 5 | Top | 5-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Game 1 went to overtime. While Philadelphia won 2-1, it was also a win for us as we had Montreal +1.5. The win not only put the Flyers up in this series but also kept them perfect since the restart. They’re 4-0 and have allowed one goal in every game. Montreal, a 12-seed that should feel fortunate to even be here, did eliminate a talented Pittsburgh team (that was at full strength) in just four games in the qualification round. Philly has been the hottest team in the league since January 8th and has won 13 of its last 14 games. We are looking for Game 2 to go Over the total. The teams came into this series having gone a combined 0 for 23 on the power play, since the restart. Both scored a goal with the man advantage in Game 1, a good sign. Yes, the Canadiens have Carey Price. But is his .945 save percentage in the bubble sustainable? Probably not! Flyers goalie Carter Hart has a .966 save percentage here in Toronto. That’s definitely not sustainable! The Over is 4-1 for Philly following the last five times they were held to two goals or less. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers need more innings like the 8th of last night’s game. They scored four times in that frame, putting the finishing touches on a much-needed 6-0 win over the divisional rival Padres. Los Angeles had lost to San Diego each of the previous two days, scoring just three runs total in the process. But despite this mini “slump,” Dodger Blue continues to rank among the NL leaders in runs scored this year. So does San Diego, which wasn’t as expected. The Padres couldn’t get much of anything going at the plate last night, however. Here they’ll go up against Julio Urias. Urias was going to start Wednesday, but got pushed back to today, giving him one extra day of rest. In three starts, Urias has given up only four runs. He’s also yet to allow a home run. Chris Paddack of San Diego has allowed four HR’s in his last three starts, which is a concern facing a Dodgers lineup that had homered in every game but two coming into the series. The Padres are giving up nearly 5.5 runs/game on the road. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-13-20 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 227 | Top | 127-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It was a disappointing run in the bubble for New Orleans. A team that was “supposed” to force its way into a play-in series instead was eliminated from contention rather quickly. Zion Williamson’s minutes have been limited and as a result the Pelicans are only 2-5 SU. Orlando has made the playoffs. They will be the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference and face Milwaukee in the 1st round. Their only goal for this game is to stay healthy. Three of their top four scorers sat out Tuesday’s 106-98 loss vs. Brooklyn and that will again be the case tonight. But don’t be surprised if those who do take the floor for the Magic “let it fly” in what should turn into a “up and down” game between backups. New Orleans won’t play Williamson or Brandon Ingram as well as several other starters. A problem all year for the Pelicans has been their horrible defense and that’s with their better players suiting up. Orlando is 11-3 Over its last 14 vs. teams that have a losing record. There is no reason to believe there will be any semblance of defense in this game. Play on OVER. AAA |
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08-13-20 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO +1.5 The Blackhawks did not have much of an answer for the Golden Knights in Game 1, losing 4-1, and they now face an uphill climb down 0-1 in the series. Vegas, who has yet to lose since the restart (4-0), has scored four or more goals in every game so far. But they trailed by multiple goals in each of the first two games and then needed overtime to best Colorado and earn the West’s #1 overall seed. We’ll call for Chicago to be more competitive here in Game 2, which is pretty close to a “must win” for them in a best of seven series. Note that the Blackhawks have gone 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a loss by three or more goals. That includes a Game 3 win against Edmonton in the qualification round. Play CHICAGO +1.5 AAA |
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08-13-20 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Nationals and Mets face off early Thursday afternoon in what will be the finale of a four-game series. Washington won the first two games, 16-4 and 2-1, but yesterday was New York’s turn to put some runs on the board as they took home an 11-6 ‘W.’ There were seven total runs scored in the first inning of last night’s game, three by the visitors and four more by the home team. We look for more of a “pitcher’s duel” today. The Nats numbers against lefties are BAD as they are hitting just .207 in games where they face a starter that’s a southpaw and averaging 1.9 runs/game. Here they are up against David Peterson whose three starts have been respectable to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. At the same time, the Mets offensive numbers are bad. They came into yesterday scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home. Austin Voth has two solid efforts under his belt for Washington as he’s allowed only three runs in 10 innings. Both starts stayed Under the total. In six of their last 11 games, the Nationals have scored three runs or fewer. Same for the Mets. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-13-20 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 229.5 | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Only pride will be on the line here as Boston looks to avoid injury and Washington looks to avoid going winless in the bubble. Admittedly, the Wizards had only a small chance of making the playoffs when they got the invite to Orlando. Not having Bradley Beal made those chances even smaller. They’ve gone 0-7 SU here, covering just one game and it was as a 10.5 point underdog in a 9-pont loss. Five of the Wizards losses have been by at least 11 points. The Celtics are locked into the 3-seed and what is looking like a favorable first round matchup with the 76ers. Do not expect their key contributors to play long, if they play much at all. Last time these teams played, the Wizards actually won a low-scoring 99-94 game. The time before that was 140-133 Boston, but that was with the Wiz getting 44 from Beal. Washington has shot very poorly during their time in the bubble and whomever the Celtics decide to trot out for this meaningless finale likely won’t be sharpshooters either. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flyers | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MONTREAL +1.5 Philadelphia is the hottest team in the league since January 8th. They’d won 9 of 10 going into the shutdown and then won all three round robin games to earn the Eastern Conference’s top seed. Drawing Montreal in the Round of 16 seems like a gift based on seeding, but the Flyers must be wary of Carey Price, the Canadiens’ outstanding goaltender. Price gives his team a chance to steal any game, something the Penguins found out the hard way in the qualification series. It only took four games for the Habs to eliminate the Pens, which is somewhat of a shocking result given Pittsburgh came into the series at full strength. But Price was the difference maker with a .947 save percentage. That’s the best save percentage for any goalie in the bubble. Montreal being a 12-seed is something that can be overlooked. Twice in the Pittsburgh series, we took the Habs +1.5. Both times they won. At the very least, look for Price to keep Game 1 within a one-goal margin. Play on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-12-20 | Orioles v. Phillies -164 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies keep finding ways to lose and last night’s 10-9 setback at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles may have taken the cake. Despite blowing an early 3-0 lead, Philly still found itself up a run heading into the ninth after a 3-run rally of their own in the bottom of the 8th. But then they gave up three runs in the top of the ninth. Still, they were able to tie it up by scoring two in the bottom half of the inning. But it just wasn’t meant to be as they gave up two in the 10th, then could only come up with one of their own. As frustrating a defeat as that defeat was, we think Philly overcomes it here as they send Eflin to the mound. Eflin didn’t allow any runs in his first start, which ended up being a 5-4 win against the Yankees. Baltimore goes with LeBlanc, whose three starts haven’t gone very well (6.91 ERA), especially the last one where he allowed six runs in 3 ⅓. The Orioles, projected to be the worst team in baseball by many, now have a winning record at 8-7. That isn’t going to last. They had a previous three-game win streak and promptly got shut out the next two games. Play on PHILADELPHIA |
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08-12-20 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 14-11 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Yesterday marked the first MLB game played in Buffalo in the last 105 years and things ended up turning out well for the “home team.” Toronto, playing its “home games” here due to COVID-19 concerns, was able to take the game in extra innings by a count of 5-4. It was the Marlins’ third straight loss following a 7-1 start. Obviously, Miami was going to start trending in a negative direction sooner rather than later and we think it will continue here on Wednesday as they wrap up this first series in upstate NY. Blue Jays starter Pearson has pitched better than his 0-2 TSR as he’s got a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both starts saw him last five innings and allow just two hits. The only three runs he’s allowed all came in the last outing due to some control issues. But Pearson also has 10 strikeouts in as many innings. Miami, whose roster is still thin because of COVID-19, sends Jordan Yamamoto to the mound. He allowed four runs in his only 2020 start. Again, the Marlins were due to start regressing and unfortunately for them that’s not going to end after three straight losses. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-12-20 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -170 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO They didn’t earn the West’s top seed. But Colorado is a team to watch. Not just in this series, which they figure to dominate. But throughout the entire playoffs as they are very capable of making a deep run. The Avalanche had the West’s #1 goal differential before the stoppage. Here in the Round of 16, they draw an Arizona team that’s off its first playoff series win in eight years. That came on the heels of their GM quitting right before entering the bubble. While the Coyotes may not have had much trouble dispatching Nashville in four games, the Avs are a whole different class of opponent. They had the possession advantage in all three round robin games, averaging 37.7 shots on goal while allowing only 28.3. Arizona’s Darcy Keumper was as good as expected against the Preds, but he faced 163 shots in the qualification round, which was more than any other goaltender. Once again, he figures to be under siege in this series. The only difference being that Colorado has more talented skaters than Nashville. Interesting that the ‘Yotes are just 9-20 the last 29 times playing on three or more days rest. Look for the Avs to roll in Game 1. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-12-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -127 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Boston had the most points in the league (100) when the season stopped in March. Three consecutive losses since the restart have them as the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference. It can be argued that’s unfair, but don’t expect any sympathy from the Carolina Hurricanes, who are thinking about revenge after being swept by the Bruins in last year’s Eastern Conference Final. A lot of momentum is with the ‘Canes right now after they won three straight games over the Rangers, the only sweep of the qualification round. But it would be foolish to discount the defending Eastern Conference Champs. Just go ahead and reread the first sentence of this analysis. There is also the question of “rust” for Carolina as they have not played a game in a full week. The Hurricanes have lost to the Bruins six straight times and have beaten them just once in 10 tries. This is a great “buy low” opportunity on the Bruins. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-11-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -172 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -172 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Padres switched starters on the Dodgers yesterday and it paid off as Luis Perdomo and five relievers held LA to just four hits in a 2-1 victory. It was one of the Dodgers’ weaker efforts at the plate so far this season. They went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position and failed to homer for the first time in 11 games. But it’s important to know they are averaging 5.0 runs/game, making them one of baseball’s highest scoring teams. Tonight they get to face Garrett Richards, who we were set to play against yesterday (before the pitching change) as he’s allowed four runs in consecutive starts. Los Angeles has won all three previous starts of Ross Stripling, who will go again tonight. The most recent was against Richards and the Padres last week. The Dodgers have a much better bullpen than the Padres. They are also 4-1 off a loss this season. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-11-20 | Nationals -139 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington jumped all over the hapless Mets on Monday and never looked back, eventually winning by a score of 16-4. After taking that kind of beating, it’s tough to like the Mets chances tonight as they have to face Max Scherzer. Though a sore hamstring caused him to exit his last start after just one inning, Scherzer looked really good in the start before that one. He threw 7 ⅓ scoreless innings against Toronto on 7/29. He had 21 strikeouts in his first two starts. The Mets are a disaster. Their bullpen is in shambles and you shouldn’t trust today’s starter Rick Porcello, who allowed 13 runs his first two starts. Now Porcello did bounce back with a strong effort against Scherzer and the Nationals last week. But we’ll go with the revenge angle and the better team Tuesday. Again, Scherzer lasted just one inning in that first go-around and it’s not because he was ineffective. The Mets have a bottom five run differential in all of baseball. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-11-20 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO For the first time in 135 years, the city of Buffalo will host a regular season Major League Baseball game. COVID-19 means the Blue Jays can’t play in Toronto so they chose (were forced to?) their Triple-A affiliate’s stadium to be the new home. The Jays are 5-8 coming into this “home opener” and will no doubt be happy to be here, even if it isn’t “really” home. They’ll host a team that’s had to endure its own coronavirus-related drama, Miami, who has managed to start 7-3. But the Marlins have lost two in a row as reality seems to be setting in for a team that wasn’t expected to be very competitive in 2020. Remember that four of the Marlins wins were against a terrible Baltimore team and that was after a long, quarantine-induced layoff. Their record is phony and the roster is thin. Elieser Hernandez didn’t allow a run when he faced Baltimore last week, but also only went 4 1/3 innings. We like what we saw out of Hyun-Jin Ryu in his last start for Toronto as he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-11-20 | Celtics v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 122-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With only a couple days left in the regular season, perhaps the biggest remaining storyline is who will get the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Memphis currently has the spot as they occupied it coming into the bubble. But things have not gone well here in Orlando where the Grizzlies record is just 1-5. A loss to Toronto on Sunday kept them from clinching a spot in the now guaranteed play-in series, which is set to begin Saturday. Memphis didn’t shoot the ball well against Toronto. The bench outscored the starters in the 1st half, the team was just 30% overall from the field in the 3rd quarter and finished the game at 33% (14-42) from three-point range. Off an OT win against the Magic, Boston is locked in as the 3-seed in the East. So they probably won’t have the same motivation as Memphis here. But with the Celtics having gone Over in five of their six games, what we can expect is a high-scoring game Tuesday. The Celtics have given up more than 115 points/game in the bubble and struggle to defend the interior. The Over is 18-3 the Grizzlies’ L21 games vs. teams with a winning record. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-10-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
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08-10-20 | Mariners v. Rangers -150 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Over the weekend we saw the Rangers sweep the Angels while the Mariners were very nearly swept (at home) by the Rockies. These two AL West sides start a series on Monday and it certainly appears that the home team has a distinct advantage. Over the first eight games in their new stadium, the Rangers have allowed just 22 runs to be scored. Seattle has given up 51 runs in eight road games, more than double what Texas has allowed at home. The pitching matchup for tonight seems likely to follow the script as Gibson has a 2.45 ERA for Texas while Dunn has a 6.43 ERA for Seattle. Making matters even worse for the road team is the fact the bullpen has a 6.03 road ERA. After playing the last 10 games all at home (and going just 3-7), hitting the road may very well be a tough transition for these young Mariners, who were held to three runs or fewer in half the games on the just completed homestand. Going back to last season, Seattle has lost seven of its last eight series openers. They are just 4-10 the last 14 games at Texas. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns -3 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 6* on PHOENIX The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-09-20 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs -146 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -146 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO It’s come down to one game for all the marbles between Columbus and Toronto. The winner moves on to the Round of 16 while the loser’s season is done. After the Blue Jackets stunned the Maple Leafs in Game 3, rallying back from a three-goal deficit to win 4-3 in overtime, the Leafs did the exact same thing in Game 4. Albeit their rally was much more dramatic with three goals being scored in the last four minutes of regulation. They tied it up with only 23 seconds left. That is a very tough loss to get over if you’re Columbus. They also gave up 53 shots on goal. Though there are no fans, playing on home ice should provide a theoretical boost to Toronto. Momentum is on their side. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-09-20 | Rockets -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-09-20 | Rockies -160 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado improved to a MLB-best 11-3 yesterday with a 5-0 win over Seattle. It was the Rockies second straight win here in the Pacific Northwest as they won Friday’s game by a count of 8-4. Given how each team’s season has started, it’s definitely a little surprising to still be able to get the Rockies at a somewhat affordable price. The Mariners are one of the worst teams in baseball so far at 5-11. No one has been outscored by more runs as they are -40 in that department. Tilting things even further in Colorado’s direction for Sunday is that German Marquez will be starting the game. Marquez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He’s allowed just four runs in 19 innings and has a win over Oakland. The Rockies are allowing just over two runs per game on the road. Seattle is averaging less than three runs per game at home. Justus Sheffield’s first two starts for the M’s haven’t gone well with the team losing by a combined 18 runs to Oakland and the Angels. The Mariners bullpen has been especially horrible. The Rockies should finish off the sweep in easy fashion today. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-09-20 | Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 222 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Every Raptors game so far has gone Under the total. The reigning NBA Champs would just as soon like to forget the last one though as they lost 122-100 to the Boston Celtics. That game stayed Under by half a point. It was the Raptors first loss since the restart as they’d opened 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over the Lakers, Miami and Orlando. They held all three of those teams to 103 points or less. We should see Toronto getting back to playing that caliber of defense on Sunday as they face a Memphis team that’s off a huge upset win and thus likely to experience some offensive regression in this spot. The Grizzlies stunned the Thunder 121-92 on Friday for their first win here in Orlando. Previously, they’d gone 0-4 SU/ATS. Worth noting Memphis will likely wind up being favored in only one of its eight games as they look to preserve their hold on the 8th seed in the Western Conference. We don’t really like their chances nor do we think they’ll come close to the 55% shooting we saw against the Thunder. Remember that Jaren Jackson is out and Ja Morant has been struggling with his shot. On the bright side, Toronto has shot better than 44% in only one of its four games so far. Of the last 45 times these teams have hooked up, 31 games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-08-20 | Maki Pitolo v. Darren Stewart -147 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STEWART Stewart is a former light heavyweight who has won his last two UFC fights. Early on during the pandemic, he took a “one-off” booking (March 20th) for the Cage Warriors promotion and suffered a somewhat shocking loss, via decision, to Bartosz Fabinski. After beating an elite wrestler like Deron Winn, the Fabinski loss was definitely a “head-scratcher” for Stewart. But back in the “Octagon,” we should see him get back to his winning ways. Stewart has been a much more patient fighter as a middleweight and that was the key to his back to back victories in the latter half of last year. Pitolo has some knockout power, but that’s about it and he’s a horrible defensive fighter. He has only two UFC fights under his belt, the first being a loss to Callan Potter. He rallied to knockout Charles Byrd two months ago, but this is a pretty quick turnaround for Pitoli to face a vastly superior fighter. Stewart grinding out another decision victory is the most likely outcome here, but do not be surprised if he finishes Pitolo early. Play on STEWART AAA |
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08-08-20 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -151 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -151 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO The Padres made a nice “recovery” Friday night by shutting out Arizona 3-0. It was a good spot for them after an off-day on Thursday. They’d previously lost four of five including two straight to the Dodgers, the last one coming in heartbreaking fashion as a runner was thrown out at the plate to end the game. The Padres are now 4-1 this year vs. the struggling Diamondbacks, who have the worst run differential so far in the National League. Arizona had picked up a couple surprise wins over Houston earlier in the week, but given their lack of hitting (2.8 runs/game on the road), it was only a matter of time before they cooled back down. Tonight they’ve got to face Chris Paddack, who has allowed just five runs across three starts so far. The first of those was six shutout innings vs. Arizona. The Diamondbacks go with Merrill Kelly, who took a no-hitter into the 7th inning against Texas on 7/28. But then he gave up two home runs to the Dodgers in a 3-0 loss last time out. The Padres homered three times (also solo shots) yesterday, so look out for the long ball. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-08-20 | Flyers v. Lightning -131 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -131 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY This game will determine who gets the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We’re still waiting on an official start time for the game, but that doesn’t impact the play at all. We’re backing the Lightning here as they look to be the 1-seed for the third year in a row. Going back to before the shutdown, Philadelphia was among the hottest teams in the league. They’d won 9 of 10 and came out and beat Boston and Washington by scores of 4-1 and 3-1. Tampa Bay has wins over those same two teams, both by 3-2 margins. A nice little edge here for the Lightning is that they last played on Wednesday while the Flyers last played Thursday. Another edge for the Lightning is that they have owned the Flyers the last couple seasons, taking seven in a row. TB has scored five or more goals in all but one of those seven wins. Still concerning to us is the fact the Flyers gave up more goals than they allowed this year when playing on the road. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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08-08-20 | Justin Jaynes v. Gavin Tucker -125 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TUCKER Big edge for Tucker here as Jaynes is facing a quick turnaround and a weight cut down to 145 pounds. Jaynes just made his UFC debut in June, knocking out Frank Camacho, but that fight was at lightweight (155 pounds). Jaynes has actually fought as heavy as 170 lbs (welterweight) previously, so cutting weight is nothing new. But fighting this light is and Jaynes has been pretty forthright in letting everyone know he wished this fight was taking place a couple of weeks later. Jaynes was a +250 underdog on the money line when he knocked out Camacho in 41 seconds. A second straight upset seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Tucker hasn’t fought in over a year. His last fight saw him bounce back from his only career defeat (11-1) when he choked out Seung Woo Choi. Tucker also had a 37-23 edge in significant strikes, a nice sign after the infamous beating he took at the hands of Rick Glenn at UFC 215. The edge goes to Tucker Saturday. Play on TUCKER AAA |
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08-07-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA -1.5 Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-07-20 | Angels -153 v. Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -153 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ANGELS So the Angels were a nice winner for us yesterday. They beat Seattle 6-1, making it a winning series (took two of three games), and are now 5-8 on a season that’s more than 20% complete (crazy!). With the top two spots in the division likely to go to Houston and Oakland, it really is important for the Angels to beat up on the Mariners and Rangers this year. What they just accomplished in Seattle was a nice start and now they get their chance against Texas, who is in a bad way at 3-8. The Rangers just got swept in Oakland and have lost five of their last six games. Friday starter Jordan Lyles was pretty bad in his first outing of 2020, giving up four runs in four innings with five walks. We’ll go with Griffin Canning in this one. The Angels starter had six strong innings vs. Houston last weekend where he allowed just one run and his team won 6-1 as a +140 dog. As we went over yesterday, the Angels lineup has been a lot better since Mike Trout returned. Play on LA Angels AAA |
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08-07-20 | Twins -170 v. Royals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Though they lost Thursday afternoon, the Twins have gotten off to a great start at 10-3. They very much looked well on their way to another victory yesterday, but the bullpen collapsed, allowing three runs in the last two innings. Still you’ve got to like their chances today facing the Royals, who despite a big 13-2 win yesterday are just 4-10 on the year. Going into yesterday, the Twins had won six in a row while the Royals had lost six in a row. Minnesota is not only one of the highest scoring teams in baseball (5.2 runs/game), their pitching staff has a 2.97 ERA, which is 2nd best among American League teams and 4th best overall. Devin Smeltzer starts for the first time in 2020 today, but it’ll be his third appearance for the Twins. Smeltzer’s best start last year was against the Royals, whom he held to just two singles across six frames. Jacob Junis will also be making his second start for KC. The first one resulted in a 9-2 loss to the White Sox. Junis has 4.28 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Minnesota should roll here. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-07-20 | Penguins -155 v. Canadiens | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -155 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITTSBURGH We’ve backed Montreal in both games that they won in this qualification series. But with their backs against the wall (facing elimination) today, we’ll go with the (still) favored Penguins. Pittsburgh was the 5-seed coming into the NHL’s restart, but has seen its power play really struggle in the series. After going 1 for 12 with the man advantage in the first two games, they did break through with a pair of power play goals Tuesday night. But shockingly, they could not hold a 3-1 lead, instead conceding three unanswered goals to lose 4-3. It is a little shocking to see the Canadiens in this position knowing that they were outscored in the regular season. Both teams have scored eight times in the series. Montreal not only had to fight back from a 2-goal deficit to take Game 3, they also needed OT to win Game 1. So Pittsburgh could have honestly swept the series. Despite how we’ve played the series so far, we know that the Penguins are the better team and they should improve to 9-3 the last 12 meetings with Montreal after tonight. This series is going to a deciding 5th game. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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08-06-20 | Angels -164 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the ANGELS The Angels lost to the Mariners 7-6 last night in what was a back and forth ball game. They’d previously won the series opener 5-3 but are still a disappointing 2-3 vs. Seattle in 2020 despite being priced as a decided favorite in all five games. We’ll back them with Bundy on the mound this afternoon as it’s been two quality starts so far for the former Baltimore Oriole. Bundy did take the “L” last time out, which was against Seattle, but he only allowed three runs on four hits. The Mariners had lost four in a row before yesterday’s win and this is a team that can’t really score runs on a consistent basis. The Angels are still 26-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 the past three seasons. Today is the first time they’ll have both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the batting order. Trout is having an excellent series so far with three home runs. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker has had one good start (Oakland) and one bad one (Houston) and we don’t think he’s consistent enough to trust here. The Angels are due to start playing better. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns +3 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-06-20 | Canucks v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This qualification series stands at one game apiece with Minnesota having won the first game 3-0 and Vancouver battling back to take Game 2 by a score of 4-3. Obviously, the big difference between the two games is how the Canucks’ skaters performed in the second game. We had Vancouver in Game 2 and noted the Canucks not only had more regular season points than the Wild, but also a better goal differential. They aren’t really being priced as the higher seed in this series though, which is a bit interesting. Vancouver is also dealing with injuries as Tyler Toffoli left Game 2 and forward Michael Ferland had to leave the bubble for medical treatment. Still, the reunited “Lotto Line” was the difference maker on Tuesday and I still expect the Canucks to be able to score in this one. The Wild have obviously scored three goals in both games so far. The Over is 15-5-1 in Vancouver’s last 21 games overall. The Over is also 5-2 the last seven times the Wild have played on exactly one day of rest. Each team gave up plenty of goals on the road this year, so expect this to continue to be a high-scoring series. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-05-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MONTREAL +1.5 We had Montreal +1.5 in Game 1, which they won straight up, and then in Game 2 it was only a 2-1 game with 10 seconds remaining when the Pens scored an empty net goal. So we’ll back the Habs again on the puck line here as it’s fairly clear that goalie Carey Price gives them a chance to win on any given night. Price has been under fire all throughout the two games, but has made 74 saves on 78 shots and proven himself to be up for the challenge. Historically speaking, the Penguins aren’t great in this spot, dropping six of their seven games as a playoff favorite (Game 2 was the only win). Also the underdog has won six of the last eight times these teams have played. The Canadiens won’t do any worse than a one-goal loss here as they’ve got the better goaltender, which means they’re always going to be in the game. Play on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-05-20 | Getafe CF v. Inter Milan -151 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INTER Though they’ve never fared particularly well against Spanish competition, Internazionale has to be considered the favorite here in this final Round of 16 matchup in the Europa League. Had this match taken place five months ago as originally intended (COVID-19), then certainly we would give Getafe a fighting chance. But the respective forms of the two sides since lockdown ended couldn’t be more different. Inter have lost just one of 14 matches since returning to the pitch and a strong finish (three straight wins) domestically landed them just one point back of nine-time Serie A champ Juventus. Inter actually sported a superior goal differential compared to Juventus and should feel very confident here facing an opponent that is winless in its last six competitions (4L 2D). Getafe wound up finishing in the middle of the La Liga table (8th) and what’s most worrisome about the recent form is they haven’t scored a single goal in five of those previous six matches! Should be an easy one for the favorite Wednesday. Play on INTERNAZIONALE AAA |
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08-04-20 | Wild v. Canucks +102 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER Must-win here for the Canucks, who are down 0-1 in the series. They were shut out in Game 1, 3-0, and saw little in the way of scoring chances against the Wild. However, we like their chances of bouncing back and taking Game 2. If you look at these other “qualification series,” the team that lost Game 1 has come back to go 3-1 SU in Game 2. Vancouver is the higher seed here, yet not really priced accordingly. Yes it’s a 7-10 matchup. However, the Canucks not only had more regular season points than the Wild, but also a better goal differential. The prospect of falling down 0-2 in a best of five series should have them plenty motivated tonight and it’s definitely worth noting that Minnesota is just 1-5 this season when coming off a shutout victory. Play on VANCOUVER AAA |
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08-04-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-04-20 | Rangers v. A's -150 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland had one big inning last night in Seattle and that proved to be more than enough as they crushed the Mariners 11-1. The A’s scored eight times in the fifth, all of those runs coming with two outs. They ended up sending 14 men to the plate in the one inning (most since a game in Sept ‘18) and could have scored even more as they ended up leaving the bases loaded. It was a welcome sight for A’s fans as the team hadn’t been hitting all that well so far in 2020. But the team has still managed to win three in a row and we expect the offensive resurgence to continue tonight against Lance Lynn and Texas. While Lynn has pitched well in his two 2020 starts, both were at home. He had a 2-1 record vs. Oakland last season, but his ERA in those starts was 5.56. Also, the Rangers have not yet been able to string together consecutive victories. They won Sunday, 9-5 against the Giants, but that was their only win of that series. Oakland was 13-6 vs. Texas in 2019. Tonight is also the starting debut for the much hyped Jesus Luzardo, who is the top pitching prospect in the A’s organization. Look for him to live up to the hype. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-03-20 | Giants v. Rockies -140 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO The Rockies are off to a fine 6-2 start. After a bit of a slow start at the plate, they’ve scored at least five runs in each of the last six games. Over the weekend, they took two of three from the Padres and are now in first place in the National League West. They’ve gotten quality starts the last two days as their starters shockingly lead MLB with a 2.00 ERA. On Monday they are hoping Chi Chi Gonzalez, who will be making his first start of 2020, keeps the trend going. He faces a Giants team that had been hitting the ball well prior to a 9-5 loss to Texas on Sunday. That snapped a two-game win streak for them. We still don’t trust San Francisco despite the respectable 5-5 start. Johnny Cueto wasn’t good against the Padres last week, lasting only 3 ⅔ while also giving up four runs, and we don’t expect him to pitch well at this tough venue Monday. The Rockies have won 56 of their last 76 games as a home favorite. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-03-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Dallas and Vegas will be the last teams from the Western Conference to restart the season. They are part of the round robin qualifying as they finished in the top four prior to lockdown. Vegas was leading the Pacific with 86 points while Dallas was third in the Pacific with 81 points. The Stars were also ice cold before the season got shut down as they were on a six-game losing streak. So they’re a bit lucky to have made this round robin format. Winner here will tie Colorado, who defeated St. Louis yesterday. While Dallas gave up the fewest number of goals among teams out West, they also had difficulty scoring. During that six-game skid, they were shut out twice and never scored more than three goals in any of the games. Vegas averages 3.15 goals/game. While they’ll miss playing at T-Mobile Arena, the Golden Knights are in good shape in the bubble at Edmonton as Robin Lehner will be in goal. Before shut down, Vegas had won 11 of 13 games overall and eight straight against foes with winning records. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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08-02-20 | Bucks v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-02-20 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs -148 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -148 | 129 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO It wasn’t a sure thing that Toronto would have made the playoffs under “normal circumstances.” But the Leafs were third in the Atlantic when play stopped and were three points clear of fourth place Florida. We imagine they would have gotten in. Columbus also had 81 points (same as Toronto) but was a more precarious fifth in the tougher Metropolitan Division. The Blue Jackets occupied what would have been the last Wild Card spot in the usual playoff format, though the Islanders were just one point back and had two games in hand. For this first game of the qualification round, the Leafs are favored (as they should be), which makes sense since the Eastern Conference “bubble” happens to be Toronto. But it’s more than just the venue. The Leafs scored 52 more goals than the Blue Jackets did. Both played 70 games. The flip side is Columbus gave up a lot fewer. But while the road team won both regular season meetings, the favorite remains on a 5-1 run in this head to head series. Toronto was actually a -153 favorite at Columbus early in the season. 10* on TORONTO AAA |
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08-02-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS This series finale sees the Dodgers looking for its third win in four games and they’ve got Clayton Kershaw starting for the first time in 2020. Saturday’s game wasn’t competitive as the Dodgers homered four times en route to an 11-2 victory. There were three big innings and note the fact that last year’s MVP Corey Bellinger wasn’t even in the lineup. Kershaw is 16-10 with a 2.84 ERA in 33 starts vs. Arizona. He’s backed by a bullpen that has posted outstanding numbers thus far. Overall, the Dodgers are giving up the third least runs per game in the league right now while scoring the fifth most. Add it up and they’ve got the best run differential in all of baseball. As for Arizona, well, they are struggling. They are scoring the third fewest runs per game in baseball while giving up the eighth most. We wouldn’t look for Merrill Kelly to reprise the effort he gave in his first start of 2020 as that came against a Texas team that’s struggled to hit. Speaking of struggling to hit, the Diamondbacks could only manage five singles Saturday. They have not had more than eight hits in any game to date. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-02-20 | Flyers v. Bruins -125 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON So the top four teams in each conference will be engaging in round robin style play, similar to a “Group Stage” in the World Cup, to determine the order of seeding (1-4) in the Round of 16. The Bruins had the most points in the league (100) when play stopped in March and what’s crazy is that they were 0-7 in shootouts, so they probably should have even more. We like them in this first game against Philadelphia. The Flyers were a hot team when lockdown hit. From January 8th on, they were tied with the Bruins for the best record in the league. But goalie Carter Hart is new to the playoffs. Boston’s Tuukka Rask had the best goals against average in the league at 2.12. The Flyers are unproven and we’re skeptical if they can regain the form of the two months that preceded lockdown. It was a shorter time frame of dominance compared to Boston’s season-long dominance. Remember that it was the Bruins that ended the Flyers’ win streak on March 10th with a 2-0 victory. 8* on BOSTON AAA |
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08-01-20 | Randy Brown v. Vicente Luque OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We look for this fight to go longer than expected and possibly all the way to the cards. Vicente Luque aka “The Silent Assassin” has won seven of his last eight fights. Four of the last five have hit the third round including each of the previous three. May’s win over Niko Price saw the doctor step in and call the fight with just over one minute remaining. Before that, Luque’s two previous fights both went to decision. A win here would be the biggest of Brown’s career. It would also be a third straight win overall. Interestingly, none of his nine UFC fights have ended in Round 1. All we’re looking for here is to get past the midpoint of Rd 2 and that’s something that seems likely. 10* on OVER AAA |
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08-01-20 | Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Giants are being rather coy with their starting pitching, often not naming the official starter until late in the day. Drew Smyly will end up getting the baseball on Saturday. He was okay in his first outing, only giving up a run in 3 ⅓ innings. Even more impressive is that the Giants won the game 3-1 as a +260 underdog against the Dodgers. What Smyly and the Giants are up against tonight isn’t nearly as formidable. Texas has scored 2 or fewer runs in all but one of its games. But don’t look for San Fran to score nine runs again as they did last night. They’ll face Jordan Lyles, who ended 2019 with an 8-0 TSR over his final eight starts. In addition, he threw two hitless innings of relief on Tuesday. 8* on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-20 | Pirates v. Cubs -154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CUBS The Cubs took care of business Friday night, beating the Pirates 6-3. The Cubs are now 5-2 on the young season while the Pirates are 2-5. We see no reason why things won’t go “according to script” this evening. Pittsburgh came into last night’s game hitting a MLB-low .171. Five of their seven hits came over the final two innings against what has admittedly been a shaky Cubs bullpen. Saturday starter Mitch Keller posted a 6.75 ERA in two starts vs. the Cubs last year. Despite winning his first start of 2020 (5-1 vs. St. Louis), Keller had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). Tyler Chatwood looked a lot better in his first start for the Cubs as he not only went six innings, but only gave up one run. He had eight strikeouts vs. just one walk. Though he’s never beaten the Pirates, Chatwood has 19 strikeouts in 28 innings against them. 10* CHICAGO AAA |
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08-01-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 105 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 Anything can happen in these best of five qualification series, including this one where Montreal meets Pittsburgh. We’re taking the Habs +1.5 on the puck line, meaning they can either win or lose by one goal and it’s still a winning bet. The one edge Montreal has in this series is in goal. Carey Price is better than whomever Pittsburgh goes with (either Tristan Jarry or Matt Murray). Jarry was having the better season, but Murray was more playoff tested. At the same time, Jarry seemed to be slumping before the season stopped as he was 0-4 and allowed 18 goals. Montreal played Pittsburgh three times this year, beat them once and another time took them to overtime. Also, after the All-Star Break, the Canadiens had the third most scoring chances in the league (per 60 mins) when at even strength. They are more than capable of “stealing” Game 1 on Saturday. 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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07-31-20 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Rockies started the season by taking two of three in Texas. They held the Rangers to a grand total of five runs in the three games and there was some chatter about whether or not that had something to do with the new ballpark in Arlington. But then the Rockies went to Oakland and won both games while allowing only four runs total. How much this pitching staff has actually improved remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. We’re likely about to see a dramatic turn as the team plays at home for the first time in 2020. Coors Field is a “whole different ball game” as the Rockies allowed 6.7 runs/game here in 2019. On the bright side, they also scored 6.2, which led all of baseball. Their opponent this weekend is San Diego, a team that has opened 5-2 and scored 44 runs (leads league in those seven games. We don’t expect the Padres to slow down a bit offensively in this series, Starters Jon Gray and Garrett Richards will not be able to contain the respective offenses here. 10* on OVER AAA |
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07-31-20 | White Sox -170 v. Royals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS We like the White Sox chances quite a bit here. Pitching hasn’t been great so far, but Dallas Keuchel was the exception to that rule when he kept the Twins to two runs in 5+ innings. The Twins are obviously one of the league’s premier offensive teams. The Royals are not. So Keuchel should turn in a second straight good start for his new team. Kansas City played yesterday in Detroit (they won 5-3) while Chicago had off. Only eight games into the season, the Royals are sending a second starter out to make his big league debut. Brad Singer was the first (pitched yesterday) and that went well. But again, that was versus the Tigers. Kansas City hasn’t played a home game yet, but it’s not like they’ve been very good at Kauffman Stadium the last two years. Their record here is 62-99. Look for Keuchel to lead a talented White Sox team to victory tonight. 8* on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-31-20 | Mets v. Braves -128 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA 40% of the NL East has been “put on ice” due to COVID-19 concerns, however the Braves and Mets have each played their full complement of games. Atlanta is 4-3 while outscoring the opposition by a total of nine runs. The Mets are 3-4 and have been outscored by six runs. This weekend will be the second go-around for the division rivals as last weekend saw Atlanta take two of three in Citi Field. The lone loss was Opening Day and by a score of 1-0. So the Braves easily could have swept. The final game of that series saw them clobber Rick Porcello on their way to a 14-1 win. They again get to face Porcello tonight. Porcello was tagged for seven runs in just two innings last Sunday night and while he might not be that bad again here, we’ve got little reason to believe he’ll be GOOD. He’s now allowed six or more runs nine times since the beginning of last season. Atlanta is 2-0 at home having beaten the Rays 7-4 and 2-1 the last two days. Sean Newcomb will again oppose Porcello just like last Sunday. Newcomb wasn’t great last time, but didn’t have to be. He is 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA in two previous home starts against them. Atlanta has been better so far and Porcello is not to be trusted. 8* on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-31-20 | Reds -145 v. Tigers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI This is the Reds chance at redemption after they shockingly dropped two of three to the Tigers last weekend. The series started out well enough with Cincy taking the first game 7-1. But the team wouldn’t win again until Wednesday when they beat the Cubs 12-7. The Reds are a team that came into the season with a lot of hype. The pitching staff did have 46 strikeouts in the three games vs. the Tigers. Even though this series is in Detroit, we like the Reds chances tonight. They had yesterday off due to a rainout while the Tigers played the Royals and lost 5-3. While the Reds made a pitching change today (originally was going to be Trevor Bauer), we’ve got no issue with Luis Castillo, who allowed just one run and struck out 11 Tigers last Saturday. Castillo was originally set to pitch yesterday before the rainout The Tigers were terrible last season, losing 110+ games. They are not to be trusted this year and this looks to be a really cheap price to go against a team that’s played seven straight days. Turnbull had four walks and lasted just five innings when he faced Bauer last weekend, so he was lucky to get a no-decision. No such luck this time against Castillo. 8* on CINCINNATI AAA |
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07-31-20 | Suns v. Wizards OVER 223.5 | Top | 125-112 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Wizards have just one goal over the next eight games. Finish within at least four games of either Brooklyn or Orlando and force a play-in scenario. Accomplishing that may be harder than it seems. They start 5.5 games back of the Magic and will be without their leading scorer Bradley Beal. Of the 22 teams invited to the bubble in Orlando, the Wizards are unequivocally the worst. They went 24-40 before the lockdown. Now Phoenix is in a similar boat to Washington as they are just 26-39 and face an even taller uphill climb to make the playoffs out West. Truthfully, neither of these teams come close to resembling a playoff-caliber club. What we expect Friday afternoon is a high-scoring affair between two teams that were defensively deficient all year. Though Washington is missing a lot of its offensive firepower, they are 2nd to last in defensive efficiency. Phoenix is gonna score plenty in this game, the question is can Washington? We believe so. In the last five games before lockdown, the Suns gave up an average of 121.4 points/game. These teams played one time during the year and it was a 140-132 final (won by Washington). This number has been bet way down, giving up some good value. 10* on OVER AAA |
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07-30-20 | Dodgers -143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS While it doesn’t make up for losing the 2017 World Series, it sure had to feel good for the Dodgers to take both games against Houston this week. Last night’s game went 13 innings, with LA winning 4-2. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball in our estimation and should continue to roll tonight in Arizona where they’ll face the division rival Diamondbacks. Arizona has yet to score more than four runs in any game. That’s a problem period, but especially when up against arguably the strongest lineup in MLB. Don’t expect things to change for the D’backs today against Ross Stripling. Stripling gave up one run in seven innings his first start, a 9-1 win over the Giants. While this is Arizona’s first home game, that’s not enough to overcome a much better ballclub. They’re going with Robbie Ray, who actually has good career numbers vs. LA but he didn’t look all that impressive last week. Ray lasted only 3 ⅔ innings and walked three batters in a game Arizona lost 5-1. 10* on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 223.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Jazz and Pelicans will be the first official game of the NBA’s restart, which takes place in the “bubble” of Orlando, FL. New Orleans seems to have been given a pretty manageable 8-game schedule, making it a possibility they could slip into the playoffs as an 8-seed in the West. Utah is in much better shape (they’re in 4th) and is just hoping for the best possible first round matchup. So much of tonight’s focus is on the Pelicans’ Zion Williamson tonight and whether or not he plays. As of this writing, he’s being called a “game-time decision.” While it would obviously hurt New Orleans if Williamson didn’t take the court, we think they will still find ways to score. Note that the Pelicans scored at least 120 points against the Jazz in all three meetings this year and none of those were with Williamson. Unfortunately, they also gave up an average of almost 130 points in those three contests, all of which went Over. New Orleans was allowing 117.0 points/game this year, which is the most of any team still playing. 10* on the OVER AAA |
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07-29-20 | Padres -165 v. Giants | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego is off to fast start as they are now 4-1 after beating San Francisco 5-3 on Tuesday. With Chad Paddack starting tonight’s game, it would seem likely that the Padres are going to move to 5-1. Paddack tossed six shutout innings last Friday and held the Diamondbacks to just four hits. The Padres won 7-2. Paddack got off to a hot start last year, posting 1.91 ERA in March & April. He also had a 2.65 ERA in three starts vs. SF across the entire 2019 season. The Giants weren’t going to be a good team this year regardless, but their curious management of the pitching staff all but ensures they’ll finish way off the pace in the NL West. Starters aren’t going beyond the 6th inning, which becomes an issue when your bullpen has an ERA of 4.15 already. Granted that’s just five games, but no one expects the Giants’ pen to be anything special this year. Same as last year, the Giants are awful offensively as they are batting just .217 as a team so far. Johnny Cueto starts tonight and he’s getting up there in years. He went just four innings in his first start. 8* on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-29-20 | Brewers -145 v. Pirates | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee seemed well on its way to a second straight win in Pittsburgh last night. They led 6-2 going into the bottom of the 7th, but then the “script was flipped” on them from the previous night when they rallied back from four runs down to win. The Pirates tied it up in the bottom of the seventh and then Adam Frazier’s two run blast in the 8th proved to be the difference maker. Both teams are 2-3 coming into tonight where the Brewers are again favored and for good reason. Both teams are going for their first series win and will turn to their respective Opening Day starters. But whereas Milwaukee has yet to lose two in a row, Pittsburgh hasn’t won two in a row this season. Woodruff seems like a solid bet for Milwaukee after he gave up just two runs in his first start. We have much more concern over Musgrove for Pittsburgh as he allowed a pair of home runs on Opening Day. Musgrove also has a 6.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Brewers. 8* on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-29-20 | Nationals -155 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON This series was originally set to take place in Toronto, but when COVID-19 made that an impossibility the series was moved to D.C. Homefield didn’t help the Nationals last night, who fell to 1-4 with a 5-1 loss. The Blue Jays scored three unearned runs Tuesday night, which was a big part of the difference. But tonight Washington has Max Scherzer starting and that should ensure the World Series champs get back on track. Obviously the current situation has to be a huge distraction for the Jays as they are still working on setting up a “permanent” home in Buffalo (where their “home games” will be played this year). Scherzer did struggle on Opening Night vs. the Yankees, though he did have 11 strikeouts. Expect him to settle down and pitch even better on Wednesday. In addition to having a 2.99 career ERA here at Nationals Park, Scherzer also boasts a 2.24 ERA in nine starts vs. Toronto. The fact that Toronto is the designated “home team” for the next two days obviously means next to nothing. Tonight’s starter Nate Pearson is a touted prospect, but won’t be enough to get the job done. 10* on WASHINGTON AAA |
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07-28-20 | Rockies v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rockies didn’t do a ton of scoring in Texas during the 1st series of the young season. In fact, all three games stayed Under as they managed just eight runs total. But the bigger story was their pitching, which held the Rangers to only five runs. As a result, Colorado won two of the three games. That was a new stadium the Rockies were playing in and it remains to be seen if they can keep up that level of pitching prowess as they move to Oakland Tuesday. The A’s posted a 3-0 shutout here yesterday, making it a 3-1 start for them. The A’s bullpen was really good against the Angels, but may not be able to keep that up vs. a NL team playing with a DH. Daniel Mengden had a 4.94 ERA at home last year and only one of the five starts was a quality one. Colorado starter Senzatela may have bigger problems as his ERA was 7.29 away from home in 2019. We “smell” an Over here as neither pitching staff is likely to perform as well as they did over the weekend. 10* on OVER AAA |
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07-28-20 | Dodgers -137 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS What many would consider a potential World Series matchup goes down Tuesday in Houston as the Astros host the Dodgers. It says a lot that the road team is favored so definitively in this spot. While the Dodgers shockingly split their four-game series with the Giants (lost the last two days), they are the consensus best team for 2020. Houston had quite the offseason with the franchise’s reputation forever tainted due to the cheating scandal. Despite this, they’ve opened 3-1. But that was against the Mariners. It’s a big jump in class for them here (as it is for the Dodgers). For Tuesday’s opener, the starting pitching matchup decidedly favors the Dodgers. They go with Walker Buehler who had 215 strikeouts in 182 innings last year. Buehler allowed 1 or 0 runs 16 times in 2019. For the Astros, Framber Valdez is someone with a 5.25 ERA in 13 starts. The Astros starting rotation is simply not as strong as it's been in past years and that’s an issue facing a Dodgers lineup that is as strong as any in the league. It won’t make up for the 2017 World Series, but LA wins here. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-28-20 | Brewers -155 v. Pirates | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee may very well have “broken” Pittsburgh’s spirit with a four-run rally in the ninth Monday. The road team would go on to win 6-5 in 11 innings and for a Pirates team that’s not very good, that result is likely to be a “backbreaker.” It was somewhat remarkable that the Pirates went into the 9th with a 5-1 lead as they’d collected only four hits the entire game. So maybe what happened late was a case of “just desserts.” Regardless of WHY it happened, the rally last night by the Brewers is likely to carry over to this game. The Pirates pitching staff is in rough shape as Derek Holland (8.10 ERA last year for the Giants) gets the start. The bullpen struggles were on full display last night as closer Keone Kela is out because of COVID-19 concerns. Josh Lindblom gets the start for the Brewers after spending the last two years pitching in Korea where he was that league’s best pitcher. Yesterday was the Bucs chance to “steal” one and they failed. Their offense has been unable to score more than five runs in any game so far. 10* on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-27-20 | Real Salt Lake v. San Jose +106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 106 | 75 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN JOSE Group stage is complete in the MLS is Back Tournament leaving 16 teams in a traditional tournament-style play to determine the 2020 Cup Champion. San Jose won Group B thanks to two wins and a draw. They kept two clean sheets in the Group Stage, one of them a scoreless draw against last year’s champ Seattle in the opener. Since then the Earthquakes have found the back of the net a total of six times, an impressive number for sure. In all three Group stage matches, the Quakes had more scoring opportunities than their opponents and they did an excellent job at dictating the play. Real Salt Lake is a “Wild Card” qualifier out of Group D, meaning they finished third. They were 1-1-1 and scored only two goals the entire Group stage. On the bright side, they only allowed two goals. But the loss of Albert Rusnak has clearly hurt them in terms of creating scoring opportunities. We’re a little shocked at this line and are backing SJ all the way! 10* on SAN JOSE AAA |
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07-27-20 | Royals v. Tigers -131 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DETROIT Taking Detroit, you ask? The Tigers put forth one of the more hideous seasons in recent memory last year, however, they are 2-1 so far in 2020. Furthermore, the team they took two of three from was the heavily hyped Reds and they did so on the road. Now the Tigers actually find themselves favored to win a game, something that was only the case 26 times in all of ‘19. The key is that they are facing the Royals at home. Kansas City is also a team you shouldn’t expect much from in this abbreviated 60-game season. They lost two of three at Cleveland in their first series and scored only five runs in the three games. Monday’s starter for the Royals will be Mike Montgomery and he allowed two home runs in his final exhibition outing, which isn’t a good sign. The Tigers are going with an opener for their home opener and it will be Michael Fulmer, who has not pitched in a major league game since 2018 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fulmer was AL Rookie of the Year back in 2016 though and it speaks volumes that he and the Tigers are favored in this spot. 10* DETROIT AAA |
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07-26-20 | Rockies v. Rangers -140 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TEXAS This is Corey Kluber’s debut outing for the Rangers and we anticipate it will go well. While the Rangers did lose yesterday, their first loss in their new home ballpark, it was a close affair (3-2) that saw them actually outhit the Rockies. There hasn’t been much offense so far in this series as Texas took the first game 1-0. Kluber keeping Colorado in check should not prove difficult as this is a lineup that hit just .230 on the road last season, which was the worst average in all of the majors. Kluber has something to prove here in his first start in almost 15 months. It was only a couple seasons ago that he was regarded among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland was pretty lousy last year as his 3-11 record will tell you. The Rockies have just nine hits so far. Texas stranded 12 runners in Saturday’s game including multiple in four consecutive innings. 8* on TEXAS AAA |
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07-26-20 | Pirates v. Cardinals -157 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -157 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST LOUIS We had the Cardinals yesterday (our Game of the Week!) and are going back to that well again Sunday. The Pirates aren’t going to be very good in Derek Shelton’s first season on the bench. Even with the DH, their lineup hasn’t managed much in the first two games. They had three hits yesterday and scored only one run. Remember that the Bucs are beginning 2020 with a somewhat depleted lineup. They’ve had little luck beating St. Louis these last couple seasons. They’re just 13-26 against the Redbirds since 2018 including 5-15 the last 20 games. Keller, their top pitching prospect, will start Sunday. St. Louis has never faced him but we expect another strong effort at the plate from the home team. Keller was just 1-5 with an ERA above 7.00 in 2019. He’s being opposed by Dakota Hudson, a pitcher that has won five straight starts against division opponents. Hudson also won 16 games last year. 8* ST LOUIS AAA |
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07-26-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -160 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON -1.5 Seattle is clearly no match for Houston as they’ve lost the first two games of the series by scores of 8-2 and 7-2. They are now a pathetic 1-19 against the Astros going back to last season. We cashed the Under in yesterday’s Astros romp. Here we will play the ‘Stros, but since that obviously comes at a high price we’re playing the run line of -1.5. We don’t see any reason why Houston shouldn’t win this game by at least two runs as they send Greinke to the hill Sunday. In 14 career appearances vs. Seattle, Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA. Believe it or not, he faced them just one time last year. But it was a dominant start which saw him give up just two hits in 8+ innings. Kikuchi would have to pitch out of his mind for the M’s to even have a chance today. That’s probably not going to happen seeing as he faces a lineup that has scored 15 times in two games. Kikuchi’s numbers were not good last season (5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) and he only had 12 quality starts in 32 tries. Easy money here. 8* HOUSTON -1.5 AAA |
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07-25-20 | Peter Sobotta v. Alex Oliveira -164 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 121 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 7* on OLIVEIRA These two Welterweights come to “Fight Island” at the crossroads of their respective careers. Oliveira had a poor 2019 by losing a couple decisions. “Cowboy” had actually lost three straight fights when he stepped back into the Octagon in March. But he won a split decision over Max Smith, seemingly giving him new life. The win over Smith improved his career record to 21-8-1, so take away that three-fight losing streak and it’s been a solid run. Sobotta has been far more embattled as he’s never really proven himself on this kind of stage. He was signed by the UFC mainly because he’s German and that was a country the company wanted to expand into. After turning in a decent effort in a loss to Leon Edwards in March of ‘18, Sobotta has been inactive due to injuries. Coming into this fight off a two-plus year layoff is difficult and a 17-6-1 career record against not that strong of competition is hardly inspiring either. We don’t see Sobotta as being strong enough to stay in this thing for 15 minutes. 7* on Oliveira AAA |
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07-25-20 | Jai Herbert v. Francisco Trinaldo -158 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TRINALDO We’re going with Trinaldo in this fight as it comes down to a massive edge in experience inside the Octagon compared to his opponent. Herbert is making his UFC debut Saturday night. Trinaldo has 22 fights for UFC. He’s coming off a win in March against Makdessi, which was the second straight victory for the Brazillian. Both were by decision by Trinaldo can certainly finish. He’s won 13 of his fights by either KO/TKO or submission. Meanwhile, he’s never been knocked out in his career and only three times has he ever submitted. Herbert last fought in October so there could be some “rust,” hardly an ideal scenario to be making your UFC debut. The likely result here is Trinaldo by decision but he very well could end the fight early. Either way, look for him to get his hand raised on “Fight Island” this Saturday. 8* on TRINALDO AAA |
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07-25-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER With no fans in attendance, the Astros don’t have to worry about being booed out of stadiums. Not that such a thing would have transpired yesterday. They were at home and beat the Seattle Mariners as expected, 8-2. The Astros went 18-1 against the Mariners this year so they’re expecting to sweep this first start of the season. Of course, they’ll be priced accordingly. So look at the total instead. Seattle has scored two or fewer runs 8 of the last 10 meetings with the ‘Stros. We can see that trend continuing here. Both runs yesterday came on solo home runs. On the other hand, Houston’s five-run inning that propelled them to victory last night likely won’t be replicated here. Lance McCullers will likely shut down the weak Mariners lineup while Seattle starter Taijuan Walker should pitch okay. Another issue for the Mariners last night was a sloppy defense. Assuming they clean up the fielding, the Astros won’t be getting as many chances at the plate.The Under is 13-5 the past 18 times when Seattle’s opponent scored 5 or more in its last game. 10* UNDER SEATTLE/HOUSTON AAA |
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07-25-20 | Marlins v. Phillies -168 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 7* on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia was one of the few favorites on the board that lost last night. We don’t see them losing again to the Marlins and thus are playing accordingly. A 1-1 game turned into a 5-1 Marlins’ advantage thanks to one big inning last night. However let us not forget how horrible Miami has been on the road these last few seasons (53-109 record!). Five Phillies hitters, including Bryce Harper, combined to go 0 for 19 at the plate last night. That won’t be happening again. There was some debate over whether Zach Wheeler would be able to make his scheduled start for the Phillies. He will and figures to pitch well considering his 7-3 career record vs. Miami that comes with a 1.91 ERA. Wheeler should also be inspired by the fact that his wife just gave birth (which is why there was some debate if he would make this start). Chris Smith pitched okay down the stretch last year for the Marlins, but we just don’t see this team winning two days in a row on the road. 7* on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-25-20 | Pirates v. Cardinals -150 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS While the NL Central is definitely “up for grabs,” the Pirates still figure to finish in last place this year. St. Louis had the Bucs number last year, taking 14 of 19 overall and they are 25-13 against them the last two years. They opened the 2020 season with a 5-4 win, never trailing in the process. Three Pittsburgh players testing positive for COVID-19 and two more being out for the season due to injuries doesn’t help the cause. St. Louis’ starter for Saturday (Wainwright) has faced the Pirates many times in his career. He faced them five times last year and the Cards won four of those games, the only loss coming by a score of 2-1. Wainwright also had much better numbers at Busch Stadium compared to the road in 2019. Trevor Williams starts for Pittsburgh. Last year he went 7-9 and finished with a 5.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Those are not good numbers, we don’t expect him to pitch well in this spot and you should definitely back the home team in this one. 10* on ST LOUIS AAA |
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07-24-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
PICK IS FOR TOMORROW'S GAME |
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07-24-20 | Pirates v. Cardinals -173 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
pick is for TOMORROW'S GAME |
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07-24-20 | Twins +105 v. White Sox | Top | 10-5 | Win | 105 | 97 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Seems to be a lot of fanfare surrounding the White Sox coming into the season. But we’re not yet ready to put them in the same class as the two top teams in the division. The Twins are the favorites to win the AL Central this year, as they should be, based on last year’s results. Minnesota was 13-6 vs. Chicago in 2019 and 12-7 head to head the season prior. Friday starter Lucas Giolito was strong for the White Sox last year, but he did have one terrible start against the Twins where he gave up four home runs and seven runs total. If that’s not rough enough, Minnesota’s offense should be even more productive this year. Josh Donaldson is now part of a lineup that set the single season home run mark a year ago. How about Jose Berrios? The Twins starter for Friday pitched quite well in 2019 including FOUR wins over the White Sox in five tries. The Twins are 37-15 their last 52 games as a road favorite, so watch the line. They are also 60-27 their last 87 division games. 10* on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-24-20 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO +1.5 Now that the playoff field has been expanded to 16 teams, Toronto certainly has a fighting chance. There’s a fairly clear delineation of “haves” and “have nots” within the American League. The Blue Jays were really the only team considered “in between.” Realistically they had little chance of making the playoffs under the normal format (five teams per league). Now with eight, they’ve got a shot. Also in the AL East, Tampa Bay has high hopes for 2020. They believe they can compete with the Yankees. There seems to be a lot of hype going around and thus we believe the Rays enter this first series of the year slightly overvalued. We’ll back Toronto at +1.5, using the run line. All Star outfield Austin Meadows, who last year led the team in both on base percentage and home runs against right-handed pitching, has the coronavirus. Lefty reliever Poche is also expected to miss the 2020 season. We like Ryu starting in Toronto. In case you forgot, he had the lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.32). He's a quality addition. Don’t let the current nomadic nature (no home stadium) of the Blue Jays fool you. They’re a great value Friday. 8* Toronto +1.5 AAA |
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07-18-20 | Jack Hermansson v. Kelvin Gastelum -120 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 275 h 49 m | Show |
This is a a 10* on GASTELLUM This is a middleweight bout (185 pounds) scheduled for this Saturday’s Fight Night 175 card in Abu Dhabi. It’s the semi-main (event), so it’s a big deal for both fighters, both of whom are coming off losses. Gastellum was actually 0-2 in 2019, losing a “Fight of the Year” caliber bout to current MW Champ Adesanya followed by a loss to Darren Till at UFC 244 in November. Both fights were decided by the judges with the Till fight resulting in a split verdict. Hermansson saw a four-fight win streak come to an end last September when he was TKO’d in the second round by Jared Cannonier. He was supposed to fight former 185 pound titleholder Chris Weidman on May 2nd, but that was scrapped due to COVID-19. This will mark the first time in his career that Gastellum comes in on a losing streak, so look for him to come out as the more aggressive fighter. He’s better on the ground than Hermansson. He’s also never been KO’d in his career, an impressive line on the resume. The back to back losses are of little concern considering the caliber of opponents that he was facing. 10* on GASTELLUM AAA |
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07-18-20 | Rafael Fiziev v. Marc Diakiese -150 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 274 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DIAKIESE A three-round bout at lightweight (155 pounds) goes down at UFC Fight Night 175 this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. We’re backing the favorite Diakiese, who comes in with a 14-3 record after defeating Lando Vannata last September by unanimous decision. Something that is crystal clear (upon review of the statistics) is that Diakiese’s takedown game is far better than Fiziev’s. Diakiese averages roughly 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes while Fiziev averages less than a single takedown (0.91) per fight. Fiziev is 7-1 after defeating Alex White last September, also a unanimous decision. But his issue remains taking far too much punishment. We believe Diakiese is going to be able to take Fiziev down with regularity here in this fight and that’s likely enough to earn him a victory on the scorecards. 8* on DIAKIESE AAA |
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07-15-20 | Jared Gordon -129 v. Chris Fishgold | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 201 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GORDON The UFC’s run at “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi continues with Fight Night 172 on Wednesday, July 15th. The entire fight card can be viewed on ESPN+ with this particular matchup taking place on the “main show.” It’s a featherweight bout (145 lbs), scheduled for three rounds, between Jared Gordon (15-4-1) and Chris Fishgold (18-3-1). Our money is on the former as despite a 3-3 record in his previous six fights, Gordon is someone known for landing lots of strikes. While he was KO’d in his last fight (November 2019 by Charles Oliveira), Fishgold is a far better matchup here for Gordon, who will have the striking advantage and has adequate takedown defense. Fishgold has dropped two of three fights since coming to the UFC and it’s thought his future with the promotion will be in jeopardy with yet another loss. Unlike Gordon, Fishgold prefers to take the fight to the ground. Unfortunately for him, we don’t see that happening here. The fact Fishgold has been stopped twice doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence on his end. 10* on GORDON AAA |
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07-13-20 | Houston Dynamo v. Los Angeles FC -137 | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -137 | 56 h 25 m | Show |
10* on LAFC The MLS season was just two weeks old when lockdown happened. Now the league is back with an interesting format that is similar to the World Cup. The 25-team league has been broken down into six four-team groups (FC Dallas not competing) with the top two from each (as well as the next four highest ranked teams) advancing to the knockout stage in what is being called the “MLS is Back” Tournament.The entire event takes place in Orlando. It’s round robin play within each group and here we’ve got a Group F matchup between LAFC and the Houston Dynamo. LAFC had a win and a draw to its credit prior to the lockdown while Houston had a draw and a loss. LAFC is considered the favorite to win this entire tournament even with star Carlos Vela staying home to be with his pregnant wife. They are coming off a record-setting 2019 in which they won the MLS’ “Supporters Shield” with 72 points. Now it's about redemption after last year’s playoff failure. We like them to open group play with a ‘W’ as Houston simply lacks the talent to compete with the top teams in MLS. The Dynamo have missed the playoffs in six of the last seven MLS seasons and are simply overmatched in this one. While it was four months ago, a 4-0 loss to Sporting KC in their last match was an ugly sign. 10* on LAFC. AAA |
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07-11-20 | Roman Bogatov v. Leonardo Santos -175 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 105 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SANTOS UFC 251 will be the first of four consecutive fight cards to emanate from “Fight Island” (in Abu Dhabi) in the month of July. For the pay per view event, we’ve decided to focus on an undercard bout that takes place at 155 pounds (lightweight). You will actually be able to watch this fight on ESPN as it is part of the prelims. It puts the undefeated Russian (Bogatov) against the veteran Santos. Despite the former’s perfect 10-0 career mark, he checks in as the decided underdog for this fight. That’s not all that surprising seeing as this will be his UFC debut and thus this fight is a tremendous step up in class from what Bogatov has dealt with in the past. Meanwhile this will be Santos’ 8th UFC fight and so far he’s gone 6-0-1. In fact, going back to 2010, Santos owns a 12-0-1 record in all fights with seven of the wins coming by either submission or knockout. Santos is a pure striker and will look to keep this fight standing while Bogatov is more of a submission expert and will want to get things to the ground. We believe Santos will avoid getting taken down. In his last fight, he outstruck his opponent 12-2 and ended it in only 2:17. It probably won’t be that quick this time around and he may not even be able to finish Bogatov. But look for Santos to get his hand raised. 8* on SANTOS AAA |