After winning with the Over in the first game of this series, I came back and cashed the Under in yesterday's contest. Today, I'll go back to the Over for the Pirates & Reds. Give Pittsburgh some credit for bouncing back Saturday after enduring such a crushing defeat the previous night. They enter today's series finale with a one game advantage over Cincinnati, which would give them the homefield edge in this likely National League Wild Card matchup. I think both offenses will be able to produce Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Reds Offense - Before scoring only two runs last night, Cincinnati had gone Over in five of their last six games, scoring six or more runs in four consecutive games (28 total). Thus, I feel this total is too low.

2. Jeff Locke - Over his last 10 starts, the Pirates starter is 1-4 with a 5.90 ERA. In his last start, he allowed four runs in just five innings.

3. X-Factor - Reds starter Bronson Arroyo has seen the Over cash in 10 of his last 13 starts when working on 5 or 6 days rest. He is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA his last four starts against Pittsburgh. He has a 4.56 ERA his last four starts overall.

Selection: This is an Over play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I won with these teams going Over last night, but today I'll switch courses and take the Under. Pittsburgh has to be heartbroken following Friday's 6-5 loss. They led 5-2 entering in the ninth only for their very strong bullpen to uncharacteristically blow a game for the second time in three days. They have now fallen into a second place tie with the Reds, who have a much better run differential for the year than the Pirates (+115 to +48) and I think will end up hosting the Wild Card game. Tonight's pitching matchup is stronger on paper than Friday's.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pirates' Lack of Hitting - They may have scored five runs in defeat last night, but Pittsburgh's inability to consistently produce at the plate is troublesome. Looking at the eight teams "we know" are going to be in the playoffs (basically discounting the AL Wild Cards), the Pirates have scored, by far, the fewest runs at only 599 for the season. That's an average of just 3.9/game. They are batting only .216 as a team the last seven games.

2. Pitching Matchup - The Reds send out Homer Bailey, who has had the Pirates number throughout his career. In 14 starts, he is 8-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.106 WHIP with two shutouts. One of those came in his last visit to PNC Park when he threw a no-hitter almost one year ago to the date. Bailey comes in off four straight quality starts where he's allowed just five earned runs in 28+ innings. He'll be opposed by AJ Burnett, whose recent numbers aren't as strong, but that's because two of them were on the road. He's a much stronger pitcher at home where his ERA is 2.35 and his WHIP is 1.068 in 13 starts. That includes a 1.52 ERA his last four. Burnett has seen the Under go 13-2 in his home starts if the total is 7 runs or less!

3. X-Factor - The Pirates are 13-3 Under off a division loss as a home favorite.

Selection: This is an Under play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I'm taking the Over Friday night as Pittsburgh and Cincinnati open up a critical three-game set. As you probably know, these teams are neck and neck right now in the National League Central, separated by only one game and looking up at first place St. Louis. The Pirates are only one game back while the Reds are two. If the playoffs started today, this would be the NL Wild Card matchup. While Pittsburgh has had its share of offensive issues lately, they broke loose yesterday for 10 runs and I feel that even with Francisco Liriano pitching, this total is too low.



Here are my keys to the game:



1. Pirates Yesterday - After scoring just nine runs total the previous five games, Pittsburgh topped that in nine innings yesterday, jumping all over San Diego early and winning 10-1. I'm proud to say that I was on the Bucs there. They had 14 hits for the game.



2. Liriano vs. Reds - While Francisco Liriano has had
a marvelous comeback season, he has struggled against the Reds, going 0-3 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. The last time he faced them was one of his worst starts of the year as he gave up five runs in just 4 1/3 innings and issued four walks. He has also been slowing down lately as his ERA over his last three starts overall is 6.00.



3. X-Factor - The Reds are averaging 5.9 runs over the last seven games, which is nearly enough to send this one Over the total by themselves.



Selection - This is an Over play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I like the Over in the battle of the National League Central's two bottom feeders, Milwaukee and the Cubs, Monday night. This division will almost assuredly be sending three teams to the playoffs. These are the other two. This seems like a pretty low total for two clubs that have given up plenty of runs this season. Only three teams in the National League have surrendered more runs this season than the Brewers have. Tonight's starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching Matchup - Both of Monday's starters come in with 15 losses on the year. That's tied for the league lead. For the Cubs, Edwin Jackson had a 6.48 ERA his first three starts against the Brewers this year. That was before he allowed just one run over eight innings his last time facing them, at home. But consider he has a 4.96 ERA on the road. For Milwaukee, Wily Peralta has a 5.08 ERA at Miller Park. He's allowed a total of 11 runs his last 2 starts against the Cubs.

2. Trend - The Over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Peralta's home starts this year if the money line is +125 to -125.

3. X-Factor - Milwaukee is 62-38 Over as a home favorite the last two seasons.

Selection: This is an Over play on Chicago-Milwaukee (10*).

I also like the Over today between the A's and Twins. Oakland absolutely hammered Minnesota yesterday, 18-3, which was a nice way to rebound from a loss in Tuesday's series opener. With Texas getting swept at home by Pittsburgh, the Athletics now have a three-game cushion in the American League West. Meanwhile, Minnesota is showing few signs of life. One of the few things we do have to work with here however is that they have gone Over in seven of their last nine games. Based on what happened yesterday, and the fact that the Twins have Scott Diamond pitching, I see this one going Over the total.

Here are my keys to the game.

1. Yesterday - Oakland scored 18 runs and had 22 hits yesterday, both season highs. Every A's starter had at least one hit, one run scored and one RBI. They scored 10 runs alone in the fourth inning. They finished the game with 11 extra base hits, eight of them doubles. It was also a season high in runs and hits allowed for Minnesota.

2. Scott Diamond - This will be the first start for Diamond since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester. While he looked good at the minor league level, his big league starts have not gone well with a 5.52 ERA in 20 starts. He'd allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last five starts before being demoted. At home, his ERA is 6.50 in 10 starts.

3. X-Factor - A's starter AJ Griffin is no stranger to run support as he's gotten a total of 16 runs while winning each of his last three starts.

Selection: This is an Over play on Oakland-Minnesota (10*).

The Nationals and Phillies combined for 15 runs yesterday (9-6 Washington win), easily sending the game Over the total. I see another high-scoring affair between the teams taking place tonight. Neither starter's recent numbers inspire much confidence here. For Philadelphia's Roy Halladay, it has been a lost season due to injury and when he has pitched, things have not gone his way. Washington's Jordan Zimmerman started the year well, but is not nearly as effective on the road. The Nats offense comes in averaging 5.0 runs its last seven games while batting nearly .300.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Zimmerman on the road - In 11 starts this season away from home, Zimmerman has an ERA of 4.03. Three starts ago, he was hit hard by the Cubs, as he allowed eight runs in just five innings. That was the third time this season he's allowed at least six runs in six innings or less on the road. He is just 2-5 in eight career starts vs. the Phillies with a 4.37 ERA. That includes a 1-3 TSR here in Philadelphia. The Over is 8-2 in Zimmerman's last 10 September starts.

2. Halladay's Struggles - Needless to say, it has been the worst season of Halladay's career. The former Cy Young winner has a 7.94 ERA in nine starts, and just allowed five runs in five innings his last outing. Fortunately, the offense was able to bail him out, rallying from the early five run deficit to win 6-5. The Over has cashed in eight of Halladay's nine starts this season, including all five at home. Going back to last year, the Over is 7-0 when he is an underdog on the money line and he's also 13-2 Over against division opponents.

3. X-Factor - Washington is 21-10 Over the last two seasons after scoring 9 or more runs their previous game.

Selection: The play is Over Washington-Philadelphia (10*).

full game analysis will be posted shortly

I'll take the Over here as Oakland and Detroit open up a four-game set in the Motor City. Any time the Tigers play at home, the game has a good chance of going Over. Or anywhere for that matter. Case in point, they scored 11 runs yesterday, seven of them coming in the top half of the ninth to put the game away against the Mets. Oakland gave up 10 runs yesterday in a loss to Baltimore that dropped them to 2.5 games back of Texas in the American League West. Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. With Anibal Sanchez pitching, the money line is too high to take Detroit, so I'll just bank on the offense coming through and sending this one Over the total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Tigers Offense - This is a low total considering what Detroit is capable of at the plate. Here at Comerica Park, they average 5.3 runs per game with a team batting average approaching .300. Lately, they have been even more potent, averaging 6.1 runs over the last seven games with a .341 team BA. They have scored at least six runs in six of the last eight games. No team has scored more runs in all of baseball this season (662). They are also #1 in team batting average and on base percentage (.347). They are #2 in slugging percentage (.440).

2. AJ Griffin - At first glance, tonight's starter for the A's has some decent numbers. But he has been experiencing some major control issues lately as he has walked a total of 15 batters his last three starts. His WHIP is 1.740 during that time. Griffin has also had a problem all year keeping the ball in the park. He's allowed a frightening total of 30 long balls in his 26 starts this season, 17 of those coming on the road. That is the most home runs allowed of any pitcher in baseball and obviously a major problem when facing a team like the Tigers.

3. X-Factor - The Tigers are a perfect 2-0 Over this season following a game where they had 17 or more hits. They had 18 yesterday and have 33 the last two games. They have recorded at least 11 hits in seven of the last eight games.

Selection: The play is Over Oakland-Detroit (10*).

I had the Angels and won yesterday. Today, I'll take the Under as they wrap up a three-game set with the last place Houston Astros. Yesterday's game featured a lot more scoring than we're likely to see here as we have a strong starting pitching matchup of Brett Oberholtzer and Jason Vargas, both of whom are lefties. Neither club has put up impressive numbers vs. southpaws in 2013 and as a result, I see this one staying Under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Oberholtzer - It's been a very strong start to his big league career. So far, in three starts, he's allowed only two runs in 20 2/3 innings. Both runs came in his last start as the team lost 2-1 to Texas at home as Oberholtzer was on the wrong end of a no-hit bid from the Rangers' Yu Darvish. I'd definitely take a similar result this time out. Oberholtzer has not allowed a run in either of his two road starts, lasting seven innings both times.

2. Vargas - Things did not go well for him in his last start, but that was at Yankees Stadium. At home, Vargas has been much better with a 3.13 ERA and 1.207 WHIP. Tuesday was also Vargas' first start since since having a blot clot removed, which caused him to miss all of July.

3. X-Factor - Both teams typically do not score much against lefties. The Astros are 10-20 vs. southpaws, averaging just 3.1 runs per game. The Angels are just 12-20, averaging just 4.0 runs per game.

Selection: The play is on Under Houston-LA Angels (10*).

I'm taking the Over in Game One of today's doubleheader between Kansas City and Detroit. Last night, the Tigers took the opener, 4-1, in this critical AL Central series. They now have an 8.5 game lead over the Royals in the division and a 6.5 game lead over the Indians. There has been a pitching change here for Kansas City as they've flip-flopped the Game 1 and Game 2 starters and it will now be Danny Duffy going in Game 1 against Justin Verlander. Regardless, I still like the Over to cash this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching Change - Obviously, the Royals chances of winning Game 1 decrease with the move from James Shields (will now pitch Game 2) to Duffy. In his first start of 2013, Duffy allowed a pair of runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings back on August 7th. In four career starts against the Tigers, he is 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA. The Tigers are 14-6 Over at home when facing a left-handed starter this season.

2. Verlander - This has been far from Verlander's best season. He typically dominates the Royals, but in his lone start against them this year, he allowed six runs (five earned) in a 6-5 loss, going only 5 2/3 innings. In his last start, Verlander allowed four runs in a loss to the Yankees. That was the 8th time this season that the former Cy Young winner has allowed that many runs in a start and the sixth time since June 18th. As a result, the Over is 16-8 in all of Verlander's starts, including 7-3 at home.

3. X-Factor - Not only does Detroit average 5.5 runs/game at home, but they are 28-18 Over in day games as well.

Selection: The play is Over (Game 1) Kansas City-Detroit (10*).

I'll take the Over tonight as AL West rivals Houston and Oakland open up a three-game set. I cashed on both of these teams games Monday. The A's won 5-1 in Toronto while I cashed both side and total for the Astros as they lost 2-1 at home to Texas. It was the second straight game Houston scored only one run and they had only one hit off Rangers starter Yu Darvish to boot. Tonight, they will face Bartolo Colon as a huge underdog (1-11 this season vs. the A's), but with a low number I see this game going Over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Houston Pitching - No other team in baseball can approach the hideousness of the Astros pitching staff. Whether its the starters or the bullpen, it's all around bad. They are allowing an average of 5.3 runs per game this season, including 6.3 per game the last seven games. Tonight, it's Jordan Lyles, who has a terrible 11.17 ERA his last four starts. Last Tuesday, he allowed eight runs in just 4 2/3 innings as the team lost 15-10 to Boston!

2. Head to Head History - Oakland is 16-2 all-time vs. Houston, including an 11-1 mark in 2013 where they have averaged 6.7 runs/game and hit 18 home runs. The Over is 8-4 in those games.

3. X-Factor - Bartolo Colon is having a great season, but did not pitch well last time out, allowing five runs in just 2 2/3 innings at Cincinnati. As a home favorite of -250 to -330 in his career, the Over is 12-2 in Colon starts.

Selection: The play is Over Houston-Oakland (10*).

This has been a completely one-sided series thus far with the red-hot Rangers dominating the ice-cold Astros. Basically, the only thing these clubs have in common is that both reside in the Lone Star State. Texas has totally wiped the floor with Houston all season, going 10-2 against their new division rival, including an 8-1 record here at Minute Maid Park. With Yu Darvish pitching today, that domination should continue. At the same time, Houston's Brett Oberholtzer has been somewhat of a revelation for a Houston pitching staff that has generally been a disaster all year long. He should keep this game low-scoring as the Rangers have been a big Under team all season anyway.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Darvish - With Darvish on the hill, Texas superiority over Houston is only intensified. He comes in with an 11-5 record and a 2.72 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 23 starts. Lately, he's been even better with a 1.80 ERA his last three starts, including back to back wins. He threw seven innings his last outing, giving up only three wins in a road win over the Angels. This will be Darvish's fourth start against Houston this season. The first two went very well before he struggled last month. But I see no issues this time around. His ERA in four career starts vs. Houston is 3.03.

2. Oberholtzer - His first two career major league starts have gone very well with Houston winning (in shutout fashion!) both times. Both starts have seen him toss seven scoreless innings and he's allowed only seven hits total! His last start came against a very potent Boston lineup here at home.

3. X-Factor - As I mentioned, Texas has been a big Under team all season. They are 69-43 Under in all games this season, including a 17-5 mark if they allowed one run or less in their last game. They won yesterday 6-1.

Selection: The play is Under Texas-Houston (10*).

So far, I've taken the Indians in every game of this series. I'm 3-0 as the Tribe has won late every time, twice in walk-off fashion. For Thursday's finale though, I'm going with the Under. I just don't know how much more magic Cleveland can have in its bag of tricks. Although, given how hot they've been and how bad the White Sox are, it's quite likely the home team wins again here. But I feel that with a pitching matchup of Chris Sale vs. Justin Masterson (both staff aces), the Under is the most likely scenario this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Sale - His last start basically summed up his entire season. Despite throwing a complete game where he allowed just one run, Sale lost, as the team failed to provide him with any runs. Of course, a 1-0 final would be just lovely here. Overall, the Under is 12-5 in Sale's 19 starts this season (2 pushes) as the left-hander has a 2.69 ERA and 1.015 WHIP. Even more encouraging for today is that the Under is 14-3 in Sale's starts if he allowed one earned run or less his previous outing.

2. Masterson - He has a 3.42 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 22 starts this season, but has been even better lately. This includes his last start, which like Sale was also a 1-0 final. Against Texas, Masterson allowed no runs over 7 2/3 innings (only five hits), dropping his ERA over his last three starts to 1.27. Against the White Sox this season, he's been even sharper. He's 3-0 with a pair of complete game shutouts. Overall, he's allowed just two earned runs in 25 innings. The Under has cashed in all three starts.

3. X-Factor - "This just in," the White Sox hitting is still lousy. They continue to rank dead last in the American League in runs scored at 3.7 per game. Going into last night, they'd been averaging just 2.6 runs over their last seven contests. Perhaps most telling of all though is the fact the offense has failed to score a single run for Sale in three of his past five starts!

Selection: The play is on Under White Sox-Cleveland (10*).

Tampa Bay and Boston quickly renew acquaintences on Monday, if only for a day. These teams just played three games here at Fenway last week with the Rays taking two of the games. This is a make-up date from last Thursday's rainout. Given the way most Rays games have gone lately, save for yesterday, I think the Under is the natural way to look for Monday. Six of Tampa Bay's last eight games have gone Under. The same is also true for Boston, who shut out Baltimore 5-0 Sunday (a win for me!). With a battle of lefties in this series opener, runs should be at a premium.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. David Price - Rays pitching has been phenomenal the last 25 games with an ERA just above 2.00 and opponents barely batting .200. Though the team lost yesterday, they are still 21-4 during that stretch, pulling within one-half game of the Red Sox for 1st place in the AL East. Price has certainly done his part to contribute, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA in five starts since being activated from the DL. Last week saw Price toss a five-hitter here in Fenway, holding Boston to just one run in a complete game victory. His 1.96 career ERA in Boston (nine starts) is the lowest among all active pitchers that have gone at least 20 innings here.

2. Felix Doubront - The Red Sox own lefty should be more than able to hold his own tonight. Though he was on the losing end of that 5-1 decision to Price last week (game did go Under!), in his previous six starts Doubront was 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA, allowing two earned runs or less each time out. All three times he's started this season against Tampa Bay, the Under has cashed.

3. X-Factor - The Under has cashed all nine times these teams have met this season in Boston. The last seven meetings overall have all seen eight or less total runs scored. Going back three seasons, the Under is on a 20-7 run when the Rays and Red Sox meet in Boston.

Selection: The play is on Under Tampa Bay-Boston (10*).

I'll take the Over Saturday afternoon between Minnesota and Seattle. The Twins should be thrilled to have earned a split in the first two games of this four-game set as they had to face Hisashi Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez, perhaps the best 1-2 combo in any rotation in baseball. They were fortunate to defeat Hernandez yesterday as they were two outs away from being shutout, but got a RBI single from Trevor Plouffe in the top of the ninth to send the game to extra innings (would go on to win 3-2 in 13 innings). With Iwakuma and King Felix now out of the way though, I expect plenty more runs, from both sides, today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Aaron Harang - To say there is a drop off in the Mariners rotation from Hernandez and Iwakuma would be putting it mildly. Granted, the entire rotation has pitched well recently, but Harang still has an ERA north of 5.00 for the season. Two starts ago, he allowed seven runs in just five innings. The Over is 11-5 in his 16 starts this year, including a 7-3 mark here at Safeco Field. The Over is 8-2 his last 10 home starts as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

2. Sam Deduno - Like Harang, Deduno has pitched well lately, but his overall numbers are still subpar. His ERA on the road is 4.25 and that's after winning his last two starts away from home while giving up just three runs in 14 innings of work. Despite the back to back victories from Deduno, he has experienced control issues. He had five walks last start after issuing three his previous time out.

3. X-Factor - Seattle's offense was averaging over six runs per game during an eight-game win streak. They scored eight runs in the series opener here. After being held in check last night, chances are that they "break loose" again tonight.

Selection: The play is on Over Minnesota-Seattle (10*).

full game analysis will be posted soon

Full game analysis will be posted shortly.

I like the Under in this afternoon's game between the Mets and Giants. This is a quick turnaround for the two teams after the Mets won 10-6, a game that ended after 1 PM ET. Monday's series opener didn't end until nearly 1 PM LOCAL time and went 16 innings. Though both games so far in this series have gone Over, consider that Monday's total was only set at 6.5 runs and both teams were held scoreless from the 8th through 15th innings. The difference yesterday was an 8th inning grand slam by the Mets' Marlon Byrd. Much lower scoring game today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Giants Offense - The poor Giants. The six runs they scored yesterday were their most in a game since June 14th and they still lost. They have now lost 13 of 15 games overall and scored three runs or less 11 times during that streak. Over the last seven games, they are averaging just 2.6 runs per game while batting .202 as a team. Yesterday was only the fourth time in the last 22 games that San Francisco scored at least four runs in a game. The team is a perfect 9-0 Under the last three seasons following a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs.

2. Zach Wheeler - The Mets prized prospect has a 2.76 ERA so far on the road, in three starts. He allowed only one run in his last start, much better than what we'd seen from him in the previous two starts. Of course, he tossed six scoreless innings in his big league debut.

3. X-Factor - Though the Giants' Matt Cain was roughed up badly his last start, he had posted a 1.82 ERA his previous five. Cain was 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA last year and has found plenty of success in the past against the Mets, posting a 2.01 ERA his last five starts against them.

Selection: The play is Under Mets-San Francisco (10*).

I like the Over tonight as the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays open a four-game set. Looking at the last week or so, these are clearly two teams headed in opposite directions. The Twins have really gotten beaten up, dropping seven of their last eight. Tampa Bay has won eight of nine. You might think this one would be easy pickings for the Rays, but I think having Roberto Hernandez on the mound will allow the visitors to stay in the game, which should be high-scoring for both sides.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Tampa Bay Hitting - During this 8-1 run, the Rays are batting .290 as a team while averaging a strong 5.4 runs per game. They didn't need much offense to sweep the White Sox over the weekend, but should be in for a big day at the plate tonight against Minnesota's Sam Deduno, who carries a 4.84 ERA in four road starts this year. Deduno has never previously faced Tampa Bay.

2. Hernandez - He started the lone game the Rays lost over the last nine contests and he is 0-4 his last four starts overall. The team has given him very little run support during that time, but that shouldn't be an issue tonight. In 16 starts this year, Hernandez has a 4.95 ERA, so he should give up some runs as well, resulting in a high-scoring game tonight at Tropicana Field.

3. X-Factor - The Over is 26-18 at Tropicana Field this season, including 5-2 in Hernandez's starts.

Selection: The play is Over Minnesota-Tampa Bay (10*).

full game analysis will be posted soon