Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-14-22 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
9* Under Padres/Rockies (3:10 ET): We saw a combined 16 runs and 29 hits from these teams yesterday, but that was after the first two games of the series both stayed Under. The Rockies, as per usual, on average have the highest scoring home games in the league. But that average is still only 11.3 runs per game. I’m a little surprised what’s happened to the Padres in this series. I took them (and won) on Monday as they avenged a prior sweep by Colorado, but since then it’s been back to back losses. Look for the scoring to drop in this afternoon’s series finale as we’ve got an all-lefty starting pitching matchup here. Blake Snell may have a lousy won-loss record for San Diego (1-8), but he is coming off two straight impressive outings where he allowed just one run both times and struck out 23 batters in just 11 innings. Furthermore, Snell has pitched relatively well in two starts against the Rockies this year and most importantly both games saw 11 or fewer total runs scored. In eight of Snell’s nine starts this year, there have been fewer than 11 runs scored. In seven of those games, the Padres have scored three runs or less. The Padres’ bullpen has also been pretty solid of late, ranking seventh in team ERA since June 1st. Colorado will send Kyle Freeland out to the hill today. Freeland is off a rough outing in Arizona, but had a strong June with four quality starts. He also beat the Padres twice last month, allowing just six runs in 13 IP. Even with the “benefit” of Coors Field, I don’t see these two lineups coming close to matching yesterday’s output. San Diego came into yday’s game averaging only 2.9 runs over the last week while Colorado wasn’t much better (3.7) and was batting just .209 over that same stretch. These two pitchers are better than you think and neither lineup is all that good. 9* Under Padres/Rockies |
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07-13-22 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
9* Under Tigers/Royals (2:10 ET): After being swept in Monday’s doubleheader, the Tigers bounced back with a 7-5 win last night, which was good for me as I gave them out. For this afternoon’s finale, we turn to the total as Tarik Skubal goes for the visitors and Brady Singer for the home team. We know the Tigers probably won’t score many runs here. Despite yesterday’s offensive output, they are 29th (second to last) in most major offensive categories, including runs scored. Going into yesterday, they were averaging only 2.7 rpg on the road for the season. Detroit definitely had some help in getting to seven runs yesterday. Kansas City committed four errors, three of those coming in the seventh when the Tigers would go on to score four times. Don’t look for the Royals to be so generous in the field again here. As for Singer, he’s got a solid 1.041 WHIP at home. He also beat the Tigers earlier this month, allowing just two runs in 4 ⅔ IP. Last time out, Singer went seven innings and allowed only three runs. So he’s in good form. Again, facing the Tigers lineup is pretty much a “dream scenario” for any pitcher. On the other side, Skubal is also coming off a quality start as he held the White Sox to two runs over six innings. Skubal has pretty decent numbers on the road (3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP). Back in May, this is a pitcher who had an 18-inning scoreless streak and didn’t allow any runs in four of five outings. There were a couple of rough starts in June and he did allow five runs when he faced KC earlier this month. But the Royals are in last place for a reason; they average just 3.5 rpg here at home. Look for this to be a low-scoring, daytime affair. 9* Under Tigers/Royals |
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07-11-22 | Pirates v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
9* Under Pirates/Marlins (6:40 ET): This will be the first time these teams meet in 2022. Miami, an underrated team, is coming off a 2-0 win Sunday over the Mets to earn a split of that series and move within two games of .500. With Sandy Alcantara on the bump, I had the Marlins yesterday as my NL East Game of the Month. The team has a positive run differential. The same cannot be said for Pittsburgh (-129), who continues to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball despite just taking two of three from first place Milwaukee over the weekend. I do not expect many runs to be scored in Monday’s game. Take the Under. Miami’s Trevor Rogers was second in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, but it now can be argued that he’s going through a bit of a “sophomore slump.” Rogers has made it through a full six innings just once in 16 starts this year. But recently there have been signs of a turnaround as he’s allowed 3 ER in each of his L3 starts. Tonight he’ll be facing a Pirates lineup that is near the bottom of the league at 3.4 runs per game on the road with a .214 batting average. Rogers allowed only four hits and had five strikeouts last night, encouraging skipper Don Mattingly. The Under is 17-6-5 in Pittsburgh’s L28 road games vs. a southpaw starter. Since June 1st, they are bottom four overall in both batting average and slugging. Mitch Keller is going for the Bucs here. His last start was a disaster with the team losing 16-0 to the Yankees. But he’s not facing the Yankees this time. It should be noted that Keller allowed only four of those runs against the Yanks. Last month, Keller allowed 3 ER or less in four of five starts. Miami’s lineup has not exactly been hitting the cover off the ball as they’ve averaged only 2.6 runs over the L7 games with a .213 average. Both of these teams have seen eight or fewer totals runs scored in six of the last eight games. 9* Under Pirates/Marlins |
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07-09-22 | Michael Johnson v. Jamie Mullarkey UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Michael Johnson/Jamie Mullarkey (9:10 ET): This fight is the opener on the main card, in the Lightweight Division (155 lbs) and scheduled for three rounds. I do not see it making it to the scorecards. Playing the Under, we need the fight to end prior to the midway point of round three. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if things didn’t even make it to the third round. Johnson comes in with a 20-13 career record, including 12-13 in the UFC. It’s very rare to find a fighter with that many fights under his belt, have losing record and they’re still in the promotion. That said, Johnson is in off a win (by second round knockout) over Alan Patrick back in May. That ended a four-fight losing streak, two of which saw him stopped. There were a lot of decisions early in his career, but 7 of Johnson’s last 11 trips inside the Octagon have NOT rendered the judge’s to make a decision. Then you have Mullarkey, who is 14-5 overall, but just 2-3 in the UFC. His last three fights have ended in the first or second round. There just aren’t many decisions (only 3) on his career resume. Mullarkey was stopped just 46 seconds into the second round in his last fight, by Jalin Turner back in March. He typically eats a LOT of punishment, which isn’t great going into a fight with a heavy hitter the likes of Johnson. Then again, Johnson tends to start allowing a lot of takedowns as the fight wears on, which isn’t good (for him) either. 8* Under Johnson/Mullarkey (2.5 rounds) |
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07-09-22 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
9* Over Tigers/White Sox (2:10 ET): So I also like the Over in this game. Yes, Detroit is last in the league in runs scored on the road and overall. But it’s undeniable that they’ve been a lot better at the plate lately, scoring seven or more runs in three of the last four games. I had the Under in the series opener (which won!), but that’s the only game during the current six-game win streak where the Tigers did NOT score at least four runs. Also, while Cueto has pitched quite well of late, it’s probably going to take a healthy number of runs for the White Sox to win this game. At home, they are allowing a stunning average of 5.8 rpg, which is the MOST in all of baseball, even more than what the Rockies allow at Coors Field. We’re still a half-run below the key number of 9.0 with this total and I think there’s value on the Over. Both teams are averaging more than 5.4 rpg over the last week. Look for the home team to win a high-scoring ballgame on Saturday. 9* Over Tigers/White Sox |
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07-07-22 | Giants v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! |
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07-07-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
9* Under Tigers/White Sox (8:10 ET): Both teams are coming off wins yesterday afternoon. The White Sox escaped with a 9-8 victory over the Twins in extra innings (good for me!) while the Tigers actually completed a four-game sweep of the Guardians with an 8-2 victory. That was also good for me as I had the Over in that Cleveland-Detroit game. This one promises to feature a lot fewer runs with Dylan Cease pitching for Chicago and the Tigers now being the road team. Make sure you’re on the Under for this series opener of AL Central foes. Cease has been one of the American League’s top pitchers this season and is showing zero signs of letting up. The team has won each of the last four times he has started and over the last seven, Cease has a 0.46 ERA, having allowed only TWO runs during that entire stretch (in 39 ⅓ IP!). Here he faces a Tigers lineup that is dead last in MLB in scoring and that average dips even further when they’re on the road (2.7 runs per game). The Tigers are batting just .217 away from home, so don’t look for the same kind of scoring we saw from them in the Cleveland series. Cease is also 10-0 with a 1.91 ERA vs. Detroit in 11 career starts. The White Sox have given up a lot of runs at home this season (5.8 rpg), but as I mentioned in yday’s analysis, that number HAS to start coming down. With Cease on the mound, it is likely the home team wins this one, which should mean no bottom of the ninth and that’s always a benefit when playing the Under. That being said, Detroit’s Beau Brieske is off a quality outing and has seen five of his last six starts stay Under. So don’t look for the White Sox to do much scoring tonight either. 9* Under Tigers/White Sox |
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07-06-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
8* Over Guardians/Tigers (1:10 ET): This has been a terrible series thus far for Cleveland, who not only got swept in a doubleheader on Monday, but then also lost 11-4 last night. That was my lone loss on Tuesday’s card (had the Guardians) as the Tigers have now won three in a row for just the third time all season. I’m not about to back them considering how they’ve overperformed their run differential this season. Being outscored by 89 runs, Detroit has a win expectancy of 28 games right now, but they are instead 33-47. But while I can’t back either side in this spot, I do like the total. Going back to last season, Tigers’ starter Michael Pineda has seen the Under hit in eight consecutive outings. I believe that streak ends today. Pineda’s individual numbers aren’t all that great, so you wouldn’t expect him to be someone with a perfect Under mark. His exit velocity is quite poor and there are several other advanced metrics which suggest regression is forthcoming for Mr. Pineda, who also gave up a pair of home runs in his last start. Cleveland had 11 hits in yesterday’s game and seems poised to break out of its slump at the plate here after going just 2 for 8 with RISP and leaving nine men on base Tuesday. Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians today. He has good-looking career marks vs. the Tigers, who also happen to be the lowest scoring team in the big leagues. This is why the Guardians still have the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers, despite losing three times to the Tigers in the last two days. But I expect Bieber to give up a few runs this afternoon. Like Pineda, Bieber has not pitched as well as some raw numbers might suggest. The Tigers do average more runs per game at home than on the road. In fact, it’s almost a full run per game difference. Look for this to be a surprisingly high-scoring affair. 8* Over Guardians/Tigers |
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07-05-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Giants/D’backs (9:40 ET): The Giants, who finished the regular season with the best record in baseball in 2021, have really been stumbling of late. They’ve lost 11 of 14 and five in a row to fall out of Wild Card position in the National League. I’m not totally shocked by the regression, given that they had zero chance of matching LY’s historically profitable campaign (+45.8 units!). While I’m not confident enough to take the Giants today, one bit of good news for them is that I don’t think there’s any chance that Arizona scores eight runs again like they did yesterday. Take the Under in this NL West matchup. The Diamondbacks are hitting a collective .218 this season, so yesterday’s outbreak at the plate was definitely rare. Now it was the fifth time in seven games they scored at least seven runs, but note that three of those were played at Coors Field in Denver. I think regression at the plate is coming even as the D’backs are set to face Alex Wood, who has struggled a bit recently. But Wood did allow just three runs in his last start (which ended up a 3-2 loss) and he is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 24 previous appearances vs. Arizona. Meanwhile, the Giants aren’t doing much hitting at all lately. The team batting average over the last seven games is just .195 and they’re averaging less than three runs per game. Now, a matchup with Tyler Gilbert seems tantalizing, but consider all of Gilbert’s previous starts have come on the road. We’ve got two lefties here, in a division matchup, and that’s a situation that historically lends itself to an Under. This total seems too high. 10* Under Giants/D’backs |
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07-05-22 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
8* Over Mariners/Padres (4:10 ET): The Mariners showed up ready to rock on Monday, surprising me with an 8-2 win here in San Diego, who was a heavy favorite at home. After today, this brief series will be over. It’s certainly tempting to try with the Padres again as they look to avenge yesterday’s loss, but it’s also hard to overlook the fact they are just 2-7 over the last nine games. I think taking the Over is the “safer bet” here as both of Tuesday’s starters are likely to regress as the season moves forward. No pitching staff has a lower ERA than the Mariners’ 2.81 over the L37 games. Logan Gilbert, who is on the mound today, has certainly played a role in that with a top seven ERA in the American League, not to mention he’s holding opponents to a .227 batting average and has a 1.12 WHIP. But there are signs of regression such as a 4.09 xERA and a relatively high hard hit rate. San Diego hits righties a lot better than they do lefties and I think this is actually a pretty favorable matchup for a lineup that’s been underperforming of late. The Over is 5-0 the past five times the Padres have faced the Mariners. Mike Clevinger is still undefeated this year for the Padres. The team has gone 6-0 when he starts and his ERA & WHIP are even lower than Gilbert’s. But I also see regression forthcoming for Clevinger as he doesn’t strike out a ton of batter and there’s been only one time (his last start) where he made it through six innings. The Mariners’ lineup is really good at drawing walks, so they should get plenty of runners on base against Clevinger here. Once upon a time, we would have to be concerned about the M’s losing the DH from the lineup in this matchup. That’s not the case anymore. 8* Over Mariners/Padres |
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07-02-22 | Uriah Hall v. Andre Muniz OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Hall/Muniz (7:00 ET): This middleweight (185 lbs) is scheduled for three rounds and takes place on the early prelims, which you can watch (for free) on ESPN. Uriah Hall comes in with a 17-10 overall record and is 10-8 in the UFC. Andre Muniz has a much more impressive record at 22-4 overall and is 4-0 in the UFC. My best bet for tonight is on this fight making it past the halfway point of the second round. Hall has obviously been around for a while. But this will be his first fight in 11 months. We last saw him on July 31st of last year, losing a unanimous decision to Sean Strickland in what was a five-round affair (it was the main event of that show). That ended a four-fight win streak for Hall, which included some big names. Hall has not been stopped since a 2018 loss to Paulo Costa and the only time in his last six fights that things didn’t progress past the midway point of Round 2 was when Chris Weidman suffered that gruesome, freak leg injury. Muniz, despite the better record, is still below Hall in the MW rankings, so this is a big step up in class. Going back to his pre-UFC days, Muniz has won eight straight fights. Three of his four career losses were more than eight years ago. Now his L3 wins here in the UFC have all been first round stoppages, but as already touched on, this is going to be a tougher test. Muniz’s first UFC win was by decision. This one may not make it all the way to the scorecards, but it will go longer than expected. 10* Over Hall/Muniz |
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07-02-22 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
9* Under Angels/Astros (4:10 ET): This division matchup saw the home team (Houston) come out ahead on Friday, 8-1, in a rather lopsided affair. The Angels, now 13.5 games back of the ‘Stros in the AL West, will look to even up the series on Saturday with Patrick Sandoval on the mound. Sandoval has been the team’s most reliable starter outside of Shohei Ohtani with a 2.63 ERA for the year and he’s allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. But the problem for the Halos is that they have now gone seven straight games without scoring more than four runs. I like taking Unders in divisional battles and that certainly looks like the right play here. Houston’s lineup hadn’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball recently; they’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last seven games. There was a bit of “cluster luck” yesterday with a six-run third inning, something I certainly don’t think we’ll see be repeated today. When Sandoval faced the Astros back in April, all he allowed was an unearned run in four innings of work. Also, the Under is 7-3-2 in Sandoval’s starts this season and none of the last three have seen more than eight totals runs scored. Houston came into this series having hit a collective .223 over the last week. While I think they’ll certainly do a better job with run suppression this afternoon, the problem for the Angels here is obviously going to be at the plate. It doesn’t help that Astros’ pitching has been downright filthy of late. Cristian Javier struck out 14 Angels last night. It was the sixth time in seven games that the Astros allowed one or zero runs! Look for Jose Urquidy to keep the trend going as he has a 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts, all quality outings. His last time out, the only hit Urquidy allowed in 7 IP was a solo home run. That was against the Yankees. In fact, he just held two of the three highest scoring teams in baseball (Yankees & Mets) to two runs and five hits in 13 IP. 9* Under Angels/Astros |
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06-26-22 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
9* Under Dodgers/Braves (7:05 ET): This rematch of last year’s NLCS has seen each team win a game thus far. The Dodgers took Friday’s series opener 4-1 while the Braves bounced back with a 5-3 victory last night. Don’t expect many runs to be scored in tonight’s rematch (on ESPN). That’s because the Dodgers will send out Tony Gonsolin, who is 9-0 (10-3 TSR) with a 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s a major reason why the team leads the National League in run prevention this season (just 2.9 rpg allowed on the road). Now LA’s offense hasn’t done all that much so far in the series, scoring just seven runs in two games. Tonight they’ll face Spencer Strider, who has pitched much better than his 5.40 ERA would seem to indicate. Over his L3 starts, Strider has a 0.999 WHIP. He struggled his last time out, giving up six runs (on six hits) in just 3 ⅔ innings. But prior to that subpar outing, Strider turned in a three-start stretch where he allowed just three runs over 15 ⅓ IP. He had an 11-strikeout game vs. Washington on 6/15. The Braves have of course had a ridiculous June, going 18-4 overall this month. Last night marked the 14th time in those 22 games that they allowed three runs or less. Yet they’ve still allowed 70 more runs than the Dodgers have this season, which just goes to show how stingy the NL West leaders are. The Dodgers are still the class of the Senior Circuit in my view (#2 in the overall power rankings behind the Yankees). They allow, by far, the fewest number of runs per game on the road. Both bullpens are solid. 9* Under Dodgers/Braves |
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06-26-22 | Neil Magny v. Shavkat Rakhmonov OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
7* Over Magny/Rakhmonov (11:50 ET): Second from the top (co-main) on this weekend’s UFC card is a welterweight (170 lbs) bout between veteran Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Magny has been around for awhile, coming into the UFC back in 2012 off “The Ultimate Fighter.” He’s 26-8 overall in his career, including 19-7 in the UFC. Rakhmonov is a rising prospect in the division with a 15-0 overall record after three straight wins to begin his UFC career. I’m betting that this fight goes longer than expected. Magny is actually tied (with Georges St. Pierre) for the most wins EVER as a UFC Welterweight. He brings in a two-fight win streak, having most recently defeated Max Griffin back in March via split decision. While Magny has won five of his last six fights overall, he hasn’t finished any opponent since Craig White back in May of 2018. Each of his last six fights have gone the distance, including a five-rounder. The only time he’s been stopped in the L5 years came in the fourth round. With an 80-inch reach, Magny can stay out of his opponents’ range and he’s got great striking defense. Rakhmonov also has a long reach (77”) and this is a step up in class for him compared to his previous competition. He’s a huge favorite though as none of his 15 professional fights have gone the distance and only one made it out of the second round. However, it is telling that Rakhmonov has never scored multiple takedowns in the same round. While this is mostly because his opponents don’t get up after being hit, Magny won’t be falling into that situation, at least not early on. It would not surprise me at all to see Rakhmonov be taken the distance here for the first time ever. I think it ends up as his longest fight regardless and will play accordingly. 7* Over Magny/Rakhmonov |
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06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
9* Over Orioles/White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox have won six of nine, but just can’t seem to get above .500. They lost yesterday, 9-5 to the Blue Jays, ending what was a high-scoring series (all three games went Over). Chicago took the first two games of that series to get back to .500. But mind you, their YTD run differential (now -41) says they are lucky to even be “sniffing” .500. Their opponents this weekend, Baltimore, are a team everyone expected to finish in last place (again) in the AL East and that is where they currently reside. The underachieving White Sox probably feel pretty good about their chances in this game, but I think the better bet is on the total. The Orioles have seen three straight games stay Under the total. They just exchanged a pair of shutouts in the last series, which was against Washington, another last place ballclub. Wednesday, it was the O’s turn to blank the Nats as they won 7-0. Over the L5 games, Baltimore pitching has allowed three runs or less four times. There have been two shutouts and another game where they won 2-1. One of the shutouts was started by Dean Kremer, who gets the baseball again tonight. It was last Friday that Kremer tossed six shutout innings against the Rays. In three starts this year, he now has a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. But I don’t see Kremer holding down this White Sox offense, which has begun to round into form. Over the L10 games, Chicago has scored five or more runs eight times. They had 41 hits in the three games vs. Toronto. But on the flip side, the White Sox do allow 5.9 runs per game at home, the most in all of baseball. I’m not buying Johnny Cueto, who gets the starting nod Thursday and has a 2.63 ERA. Cueto hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 for a full season since 2018 and he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. He has an 8.00 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore, who easily could have scored more than seven runs yesterday (as the game was shortened to six innings because of rain). 9* Over Orioles/White Sox |
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06-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under Cubs/Pirates (12:35 ET): These are two of the worst teams in baseball and all three games in the series have been blowouts. Pittsburgh won the first two, 12-1 and 7-1, while the Cubs struck back yesterday for a 14-5 victory. Perhaps the Cubs winning on Wednesday should have been expected considering Pittsburgh found itself on a season-high three-game win streak. Them scoring five runs last night was also a bit misleading as they put four “meaningless” ones on the board in the bottom of the ninth and finished the game with just five hits. The Cubs also scored four times in the ninth. I think we’ll see a much lower-scoring game Thursday afternoon in the series finale. Justin Steele will start this one for the Cubbies. He has a 1.89 ERA in his L3 starts. While Steele’s numbers on the road aren’t all that great, it’s a small sample size with only four of his 13 starts this year coming away from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. Steele also has had just one “bad” start in 2022 (where he gave up seven runs to Cincinnati). Other than that, he’s not allowed more than 3 ER in ANY start. Over those last three starts, he’s limited the Cardinals, Padres and Braves to just five total runs in 19 IP. Surely then, he can handle a Pirates’ lineup which comes into today 28th in baseball (third worst) in runs per game. Steele should limit the amount of runs scored by the home team, but what kind of support should he expect? Probably not much. While the Cubs scored 14 runs yesterday, they did so on 13 hits and got a grand slam. Previous to yesterday’s win, the Cubs had scored one run or less in four of five games. They’ll face Jose Quintana on Thursday. Quintana has a solid 3.18 ERA in eight home starts this year. The home run has been a problem for Quintana in the L2 starts (allowed five of them), but that seems like an aberration given the fact he had allowed just TWO HR’s prior to that all season. This will be his third time facing the Cubs in 2022; he’s allowed just three runs in 10 innings so far. 10* Under Cubs/Pirates |
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06-21-22 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Dodgers/Reds (6:40 ET): Back in April, the Dodgers swept a four-game series with the Reds, outscoring them 26-7 at Chavez Ravine. That was during Cincy’s horrific 3-22 start to the season. Since then, they’ve stabilized a bit, basically playing .500 ball. But they’re still last in the NL Central (23-43) and deserved underdogs in this matchup as LA comes in with (by far) the best run differential in the National League (+114). But the big difference compared to the last time these teams met is that this series will be contested at Great American Ballpark. The Reds will also have Tyler Mahle on the bump Tuesday and he’s pitched rather well of late. Over his last three starts, Mahle has turned in a 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He hasn’t received a decision in that stretch, but did just throw nine innings of three-hit ball (with 12 strikeouts!) his last time out, vs. Arizona. According to STATS, it marked the first time since 1900 that a starting pitcher threw nine scoreless innings on the road with 12+ strikeouts and did NOT get the win. Mahle did throw a career-high 119 pitches vs. the D’backs, but that 5-3 final was obviously quite misleading as all eight runs scored in the game came after the ninth (game went 12 innings). Over the last eight games, the Dodgers have been held to four or fewer runs SEVEN times. So they’ll need a strong effort on the mound as well. Fortunately, they’re giving the baseball to Tony Gonsolin on Tuesday. Not only is Gonsolin 8-0 in his 12 starts this season, he has a 1.42 ERA and 0.821 WHIP. His last three starts have been downright filthy with a 0.49 ERA and 0.546 WHIP. Gonsolin has not allowed more than three runs in any start this year and that includes four shutout innings vs. Cincinnati in the series back in April. He’s gone at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Should be a good old fashioned pitchers duel in this one. 10* Under Dodgers/Reds |
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06-18-22 | Tim Means v. Kevin Holland UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Means/Holland (8:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division (170 lbs). It pits Kevin Holland, a heavy favorite, who is 22-7 overall and 9-4 in the UFC against journeyman Tim Means, whose record is 32-12-1 overall and 14-9 in the UFC. The fight takes place on the main card, third from the top. I do not expect it to go the distance. Certainly, the “safe” bet here would be to take Holland, however the current odds certainly make that difficult. That said, he’s probably going to win this fight inside the distance. Moving down a weight class (Holland is a former MW) seems like a smart career trajectory. Holland’s debut at 170 lbs saw him defeat Alex Oliveira via TKO, just 39 seconds into the second round. His career finish rate now sits at 82% with five of his last six wins coming via stoppage. A massive size edge here (Means is a former lightweight) is a significant advantage for Holland. The thing is, Means does come in on a three-fight win streak and is willing to engage in a wild brawl. That’s why I’m more apt to bet the Under here as opposed to Holland to win, or Holland to win inside the distance. Means’ three-fight win streak has all been by decisions, but prior to that he had four straight fights end via stoppage (three in the first round), win or lose. I just can’t see this fight going the distance, so betting Under 2.5 rounds is the play. To be clear, the fight must end by the midway point of the third round to cash. I think it will. 10* Under Means/Holland. |
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06-17-22 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
9* Over Brewers/Reds (6:40 ET): These NL Central rivals have faced off six times this season. All six games have gone Over the total. Four of those games have seen at least 15 total runs scored, all of them have seen at least nine scored. The Brew Crew arrives in the Queen City in poor form, having dropped 10 of 12. While they’ve been shutout in four of those games, I expect they’ll find success offensively here against the suspect pitching of the Reds, which has allowed the fourth most runs in all of MLB this season. The Over is 18-11 at Great American Ballpark this year with an average of 11.7 rpg scored. After an absolutely horrific 3-22 start to the year, the Reds have stabilized and played better than .500 ball over the last month. There are actually seven teams with worse run differentials and Cincy is now poised to climb out of the NL Central cellar (tied with the Cubs) and they’re only two games back of third place (albeit a terrible division). But while Friday’s starter Hunter Greene is coming off B2B solid outings, he still has a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Greene faced Milwaukee twice in May and one of those starts saw him allow FIVE home runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. As you already know, both starts ended up going Over the total. The Reds’ bullpen also stinks and the Brewers have 22 hits in the L2 games. Milwaukee counters with southpaw Eric Lauer, who has struggled as of late. The team has lost each of his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over the total. During that time, Lauer has an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.80. The Reds are scoring 6.0 rpg at home this season, which is 1st in all of baseball, even ahead of the Rockies at Coors Field. Lifetime, Lauer is 1-4 with a 4.25 ERA against the Reds, which includes 0-2 (4.20 ERA) in three starts last season. Surprisingly, he has not started any of the six previous head to head meetings in ‘22. 9* Over Brewers/Reds |
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06-17-22 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
9* Over Braves/Cubs (2:20 ET): Talk about a couple teams heading in different directions. Winners of 14 straight, the Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now and are coming off an off-day. Now it should be pointed out that the defending World Series Champs have taken advantage of an easy schedule, which has seen them face Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, Pittsburgh & Washington this month. But give them credit for winning all of those games. The Cubs have lost their last 10 games after being swept here at home by San Diego to start the week. They’ve allowed a total of 90 runs during the losing streak! Unless the wind today at Wrigley is blowing in at some record level, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this series opener. I’ve already given you an inkling at the current state of Cubs’ pitching. Today’s starter Keegan Thompson has a 6.26 ERA and 1.609 WHIP this season and the last time he pitched, the Cubs ended up losing 18-4 to the Yankees. The start before that saw Thompson surrender seven runs (in just three innings) to Baltimore. Here he faces a Braves lineup that has scored 101 runs during its current win streak and averaged 7.0 per game the L7 days. The road team could conceivably send this one Over by themselves. But they probably won’t “have” to, considering who they have pitching. While the Cubs’ Thompson has seen his L3 starts all go Over, Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has seen 11 of 12 starts this year go Over the total, including nine straight! Morton has a 5.67 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 2022 and those numbers both get worse on the road. Morton has surrendered exactly four runs in four straight starts, never lasting more than six innings. The Cubs’ lineup has been surprisingly decent against right-handed pitching and Over is the only way to play this daytime matchup. 9* Over Braves/Cubs |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 209.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): This is the lowest O/U line of the series yet and furthermore it’s also the lowest O/U line for any Warriors’ game this postseason. Furthermore, there were only five regular season games involving the Dubs with an O/U line of 210.5 or lower. Three of those five went Over. Game 5 saw the teams combine to shoot a horrendous 20 of 72 from three-point range (27%) while Golden State going an uncharacteristic 9 for 40 and Steph Curry going 0 for 9. The Celtics also missed 10 free throws and shot just 41.3% overall from the field. Yet there were still 198 total points scored. You have to presume that we’re going to see better shooting tonight. Therefore, Over looks like the smart play when it comes to the total. Golden State, Curry especially, will be better from three-point range, for sure. Game 5 was the first time in Curry’s career that he failed to make a single three in a playoff game. Since coming into the league, he’s shot 46% from beyond the arc and averaged 4.4 makes per game, coming off a game where he failed to make a three. The last time he failed to make three threes in a game was Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. He responded by hitting six in the 1Q of Game 1 in this series. It wasn’t just Curry. The four Warriors’ starters not named “Klay Thompson” went a combined 0 for 19 from behind the arc in Game 5. That will not happen again. Similarly, I can’t see Boston being held under 100 points for a third consecutive contest. That’s happened only once to them all season and it was back in November. The last three times they’ve been off B2B losses, they’ve averaged 114.3 PPG. Here at home in Game 3, they scored 116. Golden State isn’t nearly as stout defensively on the road as they are at home. They give up six more points per game on the road compared to the Chase Center. 8* Over Warriors/Celtics |
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06-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (3:05 ET): Let’s try with the Under again on this AL East matchup. It may not have worked out for us back on Tuesday, but I think this is a great spot to try again as the Orioles are coming off back to back games where they scored six runs, which is a rarity. For the year, they are averaging only 3.9 rpg on the road and they have a team batting average of .229 in all games. While these teams have been an exception to the rule, usually it’s a good idea to play Unders in division games. With Toronto being such a solid favorite, it’s likely that they’ll win and that’s (hopefully) three less outs we have to worry about. Now the Blue Jays did lose that game on Tuesday, 6-5. Then they blew a 5-0 lead yesterday, before battling back to win 7-6 in 10 innings. But the odds of them winning today, inside of nine innings seems strong. They’ve got Kevin Gausman starting. He used to pitch for Baltimore and was their top draft choice in 2012. His six seasons with the Orioles went OK, but when you look at the individual record, remember that he was pitching for a bad team. Gausman’s first year in Toronto has (predictably) been a lot better (although his TSR is only 7-5) and he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.189 WHIP. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start this season. At the plate, Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball during a 15-5 run. But the “x-factor” in this game is Orioles’ starting pitcher Tyler Wells, who has a 2.81 ERA and 0.875 WHIP his last three starts. Like Gausman, Wells has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Both are coming off quality starts here. With the teams being “due” for an Under, let’s play accordingly as the Orioles are set to regress (at the plate), but Wells should keep Toronto in check. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays |
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06-15-22 | White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
9* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET): The White Sox string of Overs (five in a row) ended yesterday when they defeated Detroit 5-1. Still badly “in the hole” when it comes to run differential (-48), they’ll try and move within a game of .500 today as they look to finish off the sweep. But, because of said run differential, and the fact the inconsistent Vince Velasquez is on the bump, I’m not about to back Chicago. But I also can’t back the Tigers knowing they are - by far - the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. What aids the Tigers’ cause in this daytime matchup is the fact they have Alex Faedo starting. Faedo brings a 2.92 ERA into Wednesday and has arguably been the team’s most consistent starter. He’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in any of his seven outings, although he’s also yet to pitch after the sixth inning. But that’s okay because the Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good this season, posting a 3.00 ERA. Yes, the White Sox have scored 5+ runs in six straight games, but they also average just 3.9 on the road for the year. Detroit wishes it averaged 3.9 runs per game. They are last in the league at 2.8 and trail the second worst team by half a run per game.They are 29th (second worst) in OBP and dead last in slugging. So don’t expect many runs from the home team today. They’ve scored no more than three in five of the last six contests. I did mention earlier that Velasquez has been inconsistent for Chicago, but he’s capable of handling a lineup that struck out 14 times yesterday and went 0 for 8 with RISP. 9* Under White Sox/Tigers |
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06-15-22 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
8* Over Marlins/Phillies (7:05 ET): Both the Marlins and the Phillies have been hot as of late, but neither has been able to make up much ground in the NL East where the Mets continue to pace the division and the defending World Series Champion Braves have won 13 in a row. We’ve got ourselves a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon as the Phillies took Monday’s opener 3-2, but the Marlins bounced back with an 11-9 win yesterday. The teams are now a combined 19-7 in June (Phils 10-2, Marlins 9-5), so I’m laying off the side here. But I think that the total provides plenty of value in this daytime matchup. Miami was originally going to start Pablo Lopez in this spot, but he’s dealing with a wrist injury, so it looks like Daniel Castano will instead get the nod Wednesday. This is a significant downgrade for Don Mattingly on the mound. Lopez ranks third in the NL and eighth overall in ERA while Castano was just recalled from the minors earlier in the week. Castano will have to deal with a Phillies lineup that has scored 6+ runs in 8 of its 12 games this month. As a team, the Phillies are batting .300 over the last week. The Over is 16-5 in their last 21 games and a perfect 6-0 in game three of a series. The Phillies may have only lost twice in their L12 games, but both losses saw them surrender 11+ runs. We saw their bullpen implode in last night’s game, giving up seven runs over the final three innings, including four in the ninth. Getting the start today will be Kyle Gibson, who has a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts and 4.40 for the season. Gibson allowed four runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced the Marlins back in April. Five of his last six starts have seen at least nine total runs scored and three of the last four meetings between these teams have seen at least 13 runs scored. Expect more scoring this afternoon (from both clubs). 8* Over Marlins/Phillies |
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06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): These teams did go Over the total yesterday, but that was all Toronto, who put up 11 runs in a commanding victory. I was cool with that as the Blue Jays -1.5 (run line) was my top MLB play of the day. I know that I touted the offense in yday’s analysis and all that I said certainly rang true. The Jays are now 14-4 their last 18 games and have scored six or more runs in all but one of those wins. Yes, we have two starters that look shaky here. But I’m going with the Under today as I don’t think Toronto will score as many runs as they did Monday. Baltimore is not much of a threat to put a “crooked number” on the board. Over the last seven games, Blue Jays’ pitching has allowed fewer than two runs per game. They have three shutouts and two other games where they allowed just a single run. Opponents are batting just .191 and have scored 13 runs total, eight of those coming in one game by KC. Yusei Kikuchi will start Tuesday’s game for Toronto. He was the starter in that game where the Royals scored eight runs and lasted only two-thirds of an inning. But look at May when Kikuchi allowed 2 ER or less in all five starts. Baltimore is only putting up 3.7 runs per game on the road. They’ve had five or fewer hits in five of the last nine games overall. Meanwhile, it’s up to Jordan Lyles to try and slow down this Toronto offense. Recent numbers don’t look good for Lyles and, incredibly, the Blue Jays have scored 10 or more runs in six of their last seven games vs. the Orioles, going back to last season. But I think Lyles will surprise in this spot. He had a solid start to 2022, even beating the Yankees by holding them to just one run, and he’s given up 3 ER or less in 7 of his 12 starts. The Blue Jays probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth either, so that’s three less outs to worry about. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays |
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06-12-22 | A's v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
8* Over A’s/Guardians (11:35 AM ET): A couple streaks came to an end yesterday as the A’s beat the Guardians 10-5. First off, it was Oakland’s first win over Cleveland this year in six tries. Secondly, the A’s also snapped what had been a 10-game losing streak overall. They are in rough shape so far, last in the AL West, and with a 21-40 record they seem likely to stay there. Cleveland is trying to catch Minnesota in the Central (four games back) and having a comparable run differential (to the Twins) seems like a sign that this particular race will tighten. But I’m focused on the total in this early Sunday matchup. The Over is 6-2-1 in all Oakland games this month. Only twice has their pitching staff surrendered fewer than five runs. In this series, two of the three games have gone Over and we’ve seen an average of 10.7 runs per game scored. Yesterday was obviously the highest of the bunch as the A’s exploded for 10 runs to snap their long losing streak. Now, for most of that game, it appeared that the A’s were heading to another loss. They trailed 5-2 entering the seventh, but got to the Cleveland bullpen and I’m projecting there to be a “carryover” type effect for Sunday. The Over has hit five of the last six times the A’s have played a fourth game in a series. Cleveland will start Cal Quantrill in this game. He has decent numbers, but is likely to regress moving forward according to a number of advanced metrics (such as xwOBA, xBA and xSLG). There have been a total of 20 runs scored in Quantrill’s previous two outings. Oakland is going with Cole Irvin, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.348 WHIP on the road this season. Some of the same advanced metrics also predict Irvin is likely to continue to struggle moving forward, and the A’s bullpen has been one of the worst in all of baseball this season. The Over is 4-1-1 in Cleveland’s last six home games vs. a lefty starter. 8* Over A’s/Guardians |
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06-11-22 | Pirates v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Pirates/Braves (4:10 ET): These teams continue to trend in opposite directions as the Braves have now won nine in a row while the Pirates have dropped four in a row. Atlanta has needed to stay hot as division rival Philadelphia has won eight in a row and the battle for second in the NL East is really starting to heat up. As for the Pirates, I have them rated as one of the worst teams in all of baseball right now with a -83 run differential. It seems quite fortunate that they are ahead of both the Cubs and Reds in the NL Central. Looking ahead, the rest of this series should go Atlanta’s way. But the money line is obviously too high to play the Braves on Saturday, and I’m a little “gun-shy” about forecasting a win by more than one run. So let’s look at the total. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in six consecutive games and didn’t cross the plate until the eighth inning yesterday. So this should be a solid outing from the Braves’ Charlie Morton, who aims to keep the string of solid Braves’ pitching performances alive. Six times in the nine game win streak, Atlanta has allowed two runs or less. Morton has struggled a bit recently (allowing 4 ER in three consecutive starts), but also has much better numbers at home this year. Pittsburgh is going with Zach Thompson and he will at least give the team a “fighting chance” on Sunday. That’s because Thompson has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts. He threw five shutout innings against Arizona on Sunday and got the win as the Pirates eventually prevailed 3-0. But one of Thompson’s big issues is that he doesn’t get much run support as the team has failed to score more than three runs in 8 of his 10 starts overall. The good news though is Atlanta is curiously only averaging 3.5 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. Look for another low-scoring ballgame at Truist Park today. 10* Under Pirates/Braves |
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06-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over D’backs/Phillies (7:05 ET): This weekend finds the surging Phillies hosting a D’backs team that’s bounced back in recent days. The Phillies have won seven in a row and swept two series since dumping former manager Joe Girardi. They just went to Milwaukee and beat the Brewers three times, which is not easy to do. As for Arizona, they were on a four-game losing streak before beating Cincinnati 7-0 on Wednesday. Then the D’backs won again Thursday afternoon, 5-4, in come from behind fashion. At least eight runs have been scored in 14 of Philly’s last 16 games while the same holds true in 16 of Arizona’s past 24 games. I’m on the Over here. The Phils have scored six or more runs themselves in all but one of the games during their current win streak. They should continue to find success at the plate here vs. Zac Gallen, who has struggled a bit as of late with a 5.29 ERA and 1.529 his L3 starts. Now most of that is one bad start against the Royals on 5/24, but he has still allowed 10 runs and 19 hits over his last 17 IP. Gallen is off his 1st loss (to Pittsburgh!) and behind him is one of baseball’s worst bullpen. Arizona relievers have combined for a 5.83 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season. Kyle Gibson will toe the rubber here for the home team. He too has an ERA north of 5.00 over his L3 starts (5.65) with a WHIP of 1.396. Lasting only 3 ⅓ innings, Gibson gave up five runs his last time out, a game the Phillies were very fortunate to win (came back from 6-2 deficit to win 9-7 in extra innings). Four of Gibson’s last five starts have seen at least nine total runs scored. The last time Arizona came to Philly (last August), the Phillies scored seven runs in all four games. They’ve averaged 7.0 rpg during this win streak and the Over has hit six straight times when the team is a home favorite. 10* Over D’backs/Phillies |
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06-09-22 | Dodgers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Dodgers/White Sox (2:10 ET): This series has seen each team win a game in low-scoring fashion. It was the White Sox in a 4-0 shutout on Tuesday, followed by a 4-1 Dodgers’ win last night. Given the pitching matchup on tap this afternoon, and the scarcity of runs we’ve seen in those L2 games, I think a third straight Under is in the cards here. There have been eight or fewer runs scored in 7 of the Dodgers’ last 11 games. For the White Sox, there have been eight or fewer runs scored in 13 of the last 23 games. The Dodgers are only allowing 2.6 runs per game on the road, which is pretty incredible. Don’t look for them to give up very many today with Tyler Anderson starting. Anderson is 6-0 in his eight starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. On the road, his numbers are even better (1.52, 0.972) and his L3 starts (all wins) have seen him not give up a single run in 20 innings! He’s allowed only 13 hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Set aside a poor outing vs. Philadelphia on 5/12 (where Anderson allowed seven runs) and he’s given up just seven runs in seven starts! Dylan Cease will go for Chicago and he is capable of outdueling Anderson. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Anderson’s, due to having two subpar outings, but Cease has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his 11 starts. He hasn’t allowed any earned runs in his L2 starts (three unearned) and three of his last four. Should be noted that the Dodgers have topped four runs just twice in their last 11 games and only once in the last eight. 10* Under Dodgers/White Sox |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): As the series moves to Beantown, let’s stick with the Under (which was a winner for me in Game 2). As I expected, the Celtics could not match their level of three-point shooting from Game 1 (when they went 21 of 41 - 51%) as they dropped off, but only down to 40.5% (as they were 15 of 37). The key was they were only 15 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is only 34.8% (very bad). Outside of Jayson Tatum (who was the only Celtic NOT to shoot well in Game 1), the rest of the team went a combined 22 of 61 from the field and 9 of 28 from three-point range. Overall though, three-point shooting has been pretty good (from both teams) in the first two games. Golden State is north of 40 percent while Boston is north of 45 percent. I expect those percentages to drop. We are talking about arguably the two best defensive teams from the regular season. Boston was #1 in points per game allowed (GSW #3). Golden State was #1 in defensive efficiency (Bos #2). Here in the playoffs, the Celtics have been even stingier (101.6 PPG allowed) and off a loss they’ve allowed more than 102 just once in six tries. For the year, the Celtics are allowing just 101.7 PPG off a SU loss. The teams are now a combined 22-6 Under when playing on exactly two days rest, which (like Game 2) is the situation again here. Consider that even with 30 made threes in Game 2 (both teams were 15 of 37) and a 61 total pts in the 1Q, the teams still ended up combining for only 195 points in Game 2. We may very well see more than that here in Game 3. But still not enough to send this one Over. The Warriors had 33 points off turnovers in the win Sunday and that’s simply not going to happen again. Off a loss, Boston has decreased its number of turnovers every time in the playoffs. 10* Under Warriors/Celtics |
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06-07-22 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 7 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
9* Under Tigers/Pirates (7:05 ET): Two of the dregs of baseball meet over the next two days at PNC Park with the Pirates hosting the Tigers. Neither team is in last place, but both are in the bottom four in run differential (overall in MLB) and thus the respective futures look rather bleak on each end. The fact the Bucs are slight underdogs at home (on the ML) is something they should take as an insult, especially after winning five of their last six games. Detroit was shutout twice over the weekend by the Yankees, then lost 5-4 in 10 innings on Sunday. Still I couldn’t possibly back the Bucs. If you’re looking for positives, then check out this pitching matchup as Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers and Jose Quintana goes for the Pirates. I’m anticipating a low-scoring game here with Skubal coming in with a 1.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP (10 starts) and Quintana having a 2.32 ERA and 1.232 WHIP (10 starts). Skubal has really been lights out of late, allowing zero runs in four of his previous five outings. Last time out, he held Minnesota scoreless for seven innings and gave up just two hits. That makes it six different times this season that Skubal hasn’t allowed a run. Quintana has allowed 2 ER or less in eight straight starts! The two starting pitchers aren’t the only reason this total is so low. These are two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball as well. Detroit is averaging just 2.2 runs per game on the road while hitting .198! They’ve had seven straight games of single-digit hits. Pittsburgh isn’t much better with a .226 average on the year and they have the lowest average of runs scored per game in the entire National League. Even though the Pirates are coming off B2B wins, they still only managed five runs total in the two games. The Under is 12-5-3 in their last 20 games overall. 9* Under Tigers/Pirates |
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06-06-22 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jays/Royals (8:10 ET): Toronto has lost only twice over its last 11 games. Both setbacks came over the weekend, at home, against Minnesota. But one streak still alive is eight consecutive games going Over the total. The Jays’ offense has certainly come alive, scoring six or more runs in all but one of those eight contests. But the Twins were able to score eight runs yesterday and nine on Friday. There have been at least 10 total runs scored in each of the Jays’ L8 games and I think the streak continues here as they head to Kansas City to face the last place Royals. Take the Over. Things are NOT going well in KC as I’ve got this team rated dead last in the power ratings. They have the fewest wins (17) and worst run differential (-81) in all of baseball. After a rare win on Saturday (6-0 over Houston), the Royals immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling 7-4 to the Astros yesterday. That marked the 10th time in 13 games that KC pitching allowed seven or more runs. So this seems to be an ideal matchup for a Toronto lineup that is swinging the bats well. The Royals have allowed the most runs in the American League by a fairly wide margin. David Lynch is Monday’s starter for the home side.He’s off an outing where he allowed six runs in Cleveland and has a 8.31 ERA/2.154 WHIP his L3 starts. Tough to see him doing well in this spot and the Royals’ bullpen also happens to be very lousy. Toronto will counter with Ross Stripling, who figures to serve as more of an “opener” as he’s only getting the nod here due to the injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Stripling has made just five starts this year and lasted four innings in four of them. He has a 7.87 ERA on the road (1.50 WHIP) and let it be known the Royals should have scored more runs on Sunday, but left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Over Blue Jays/Royals |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Warriors (8:05 ET): Game 1 saw a dramatic turn of events in the fourth quarter where Boston outscored Golden State 40-16, turning a 12-point deficit into a 12-point win. The Celtics finished the game north of 50% from the field and would have been even better if not for an awful display from Jayson Tatum (who was 3 for 17). The team also shot a blistering 51.2% from three-point range (21 of 41), something I don’t think we’ll see again, at least not in Game 2. It was the Warriors that got off to the hot START in Game 1, specifically Steph Curry, who was 6 for 8 from three-point range in the first quarter alone! Again, don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that. Curry finished the game with 34 points, above his projection, but considering he had 21 points after 1Q, I think it’s fair to say the Celtics’ defense was able to slow him down. I’d also be a bit surprised if the Warriors hit 19 threes again, as a team, like they did in Game 1. I think you can all tell where I’m going with this pick. These were the two top teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Boston also led in scoring defense. The Celtics have given up fewer points per game in the playoffs (101.4) while the Warriors typically do a much better job defending at home (103.1 PPG allowed) vs. on the road (109.0). Even if Tatum improves (he likely will), the Celtics won’t be getting a combined 47 points again from Al Horford and Derrick White. Boston is 11-3 Under this season playing on exactly two days rest while Golden State is 9-3 Under in the same situation. 10* Under Celtics/Warriors |
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06-04-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
8* Over Twins/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): Minnesota came in and pulled off a surprising win last night, 9-3 as +210 underdogs. That ended Toronto’s eight-game win streak (which had been a season-high) and it was also the first time in six games where the Jays failed to score at least six runs. Out for revenge today, you’ve got to figure the home team will swing the bats well, but it turns out that I don’t have faith in EITHER starting pitcher Saturday afternoon. This promises to be another slugfest. Take the Over. The Twins, even though they dropped four of five in Detroit earlier this week, continue to lead the AL Central with a 31-23 record. They have some key pieces out of the lineup, but you wouldn’t have known watching yesterday as they broke out for nine runs and 12 hits. They roughed up Yusei Kikuchi and should also find success against Toronto’s starter for Saturday, Jose Berrios, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Berrios, who spent six seasons with Minnesota, has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Last time out, he made it only 2 ⅓ innings and gave up six runs. Toronto is on a six-game Over streak coming into today and, save for yesterday, you can credit their offense for that. They’ve averaged 6.9 runs per game over the last week. Dylan Bundy will start for the Twins and he figures to struggle. Bundy has an 0-5 TSR his L3 starts and has been particularly poor on the road, turning in a 7.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He’s allowed a homer in four of his last five outings. Neither bullpen is all that good in this matchup, by the way. 8* Over Twins/Blue Jays |
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06-03-22 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10* Over Tigers/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees appear to be in peak form again, winning seven of their last nine including a three-game sweep of the Angels to start the week. In that sweep, the Yanks’ pitching staff allowed just one run each game and only twice have they allowed more than three runs in a game during their 7-2 run. The team has to feel good about the trend continuing here as they’ll send Gerrit Cole out to face a Tigers’ lineup that is producing only 2.3 runs per game on the road this season. But with the home team sure to do most of the “heavy lifting,” I’m looking for a “surprise” Over in tonight’s series opener. The Yankees come into tonight averaging 4.6 runs per game, both at home and overall. They’ve scored the eighth most runs in all of MLB and figure to add plenty more to the total tonight facing Elvin Rodriguez, who will be making just his third career start (and fourth appearance) for the Tigers. In his first start, Rodriguez gave up a grand slam. His second outing, Sunday against the Guardians, went a lot smoother. But this is a far more talented lineup he’s facing today. Matt Carpenter has hit three home runs in the last week while Gleyber Torres homered again yesterday, giving him more this season than he had in all of 2021! If there’s ANY reason for Detroit to be optimistic here, it’s because of the fact NY played a doubleheader yesterday. That means a tired Yankees’ bullpen could be prone to giving up a few more runs than usual. Cole had his worst start of the season against the Tigers, lasting only 1 ⅔ innings on a cold night. He’s coming off B2B games with double digit strikeouts, but also allowed five runs in one of them. The Tigers, who surprisingly took four of five from Minnesota, are due for SOME offensive increase moving forward. The Over has hit in each of the Yankees last seven series openers. 10* Over Tigers/Yankees |
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06-02-22 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Nationals/Reds (6:40 ET): Things have stabilized in Cincinnati following a disastrous 3-22 start to the season. The team is actually 12-10 over its L22 games and the offense has been a real bright spot, now averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game at home this year. Only Colorado, which has the obvious benefit of Coors Field, scores more at home. But unfortunately for the Reds, their pitching still stinks. You’re talking about a staff that is allowing 5.7 rpg at home. Add it all up and Reds’ home games are now averaging an absurd 11.6 rpg! That makes this total (vs. a Washington team that also has bad pitching) too low. So the Nationals’ staff is one of two in all of baseball that gives up more runs per game than the Reds. (Colorado gives up the most). The team had gone Over in four straight games before yday’s 5-0 loss to the Mets, which was actually the second game in a row the Nats’ offense got blanked. Starting today will be Joan Adon, who has a 6.08 ERA and 1.669 WHIP in 10 starts, nine of which have seen Washington lose. Adon is off probably his best start (at home vs. Colorado), but can’t be trusted here against a Reds lineup that typically puts up a ton of runs at home and is batting a collective .280 its L7 games overall. Plus, the Washington bullpen stinks. Having been shutout in B2B games, there’s not much expectation for the Nationals’ offense today, but considering how many runs visiting teams have scored so far this season at Great American Ballpark, I look for the Nats to put more than a few on the board. The unproven Graham Ashcraft will get the starting nod here for the Reds. Ashcraft only has two starts under his belt and isn’t a big strikeout guy. Washington is 6th in the NL in OBP, respectable, and the Over is 14-3-2 in the Reds’ last 18 home games when they face a right-handed starter. 10* Over Nationals/Reds |
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06-01-22 | Royals v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
9* Under Royals/Guardians (1:10 ET): Kansas City’s pitching staff has now given up seven or more runs in eight of the last ten games, including both in the series. With numbers like that, it’s really no surprise that KC comes into Wednesday with the fewest number of wins (16) in all of MLB. I’ve got the Pirates rated lower, but that’s it. This afternoon, the Royals hope to avoid getting swept in Cleveland. I’m in no way confident that they will, but the better bet is that this AL Central matchup will be low-scoring. Despite the Royals’ recent pitching woes, I’m on the Under. The O/U line was higher for Monday’s series opener, so that game (7-3 Guardians’ win) went Under. But after yesterday’s 8-3 result, the Royals are now 10-2 Over their L12 games. Again, most of that has to do with the pitching, which has allowed more runs that anyone in the American League. The bullpen is coming off a horrible month, but I’m expecting a strong start here from Brad Keller, who has a 3.95 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year. He was shelled his last time out, but earlier in the season, Keller had his best start of ‘22 when he tossed six shutout innings vs. Cleveland (allowed just two hits). The Guardians counter with Konnor Pilkington, who hasn’t been exactly “dominant” in either of his two previous starts. Yet to make it through four innings, Pilkington will likely rely on his bullpen, which has been outstanding thus far. Another positive is that Pilkington is a lefty and KC is scoring only 3.7 runs per game when facing a southpaw starter. The Royals are also currently dealing with a lot of injuries to their lineup. Considering that, and the fact the KC pitching HAS to improve (can’t get any worse!), I’m looking for this to be a relatively low-scoring game. Keller has 1.71 ERA in eight career starts vs. Cleveland and a 1.88 ERA here at Progressive Field. 9* Under Royals/Guardians |
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05-30-22 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Giants/Phillies (4:10 ET): The Phillies continue to underperform as they were swept over the weekend by the Mets, leaving them six games below .500 despite still having a (slightly) positive run differential. The Phils have now dropped 8 of 11 overall and things get no easier this week with a visit from the Giants. I’ve said before that there is just no way the Giants will be as profitable as they were last year to bet on, and sure enough they’re down 3.3 units despite their winning overall record (25-21). The way I see this one going is lots of runs, from both clubs. Take the Over. The Giants are one of only three teams to be averaging 5.0 runs per game (Dodgers & Mets are the others). I like their chances today against Kyle Gibson, who has a 6.28 ERA and 1.743 WHIP his L3 starts. Gibson has been better since being roughed up for six runs by the Dodgers on 5/13, but he’s made it through six full innings just once in his last six starts. As we saw last night, the Phillies’ bullpen has been a problem this season, a reason six of their last seven games have gone Over the total. Only one of those games saw fewer than nine total runs scored. All three games vs. the Mets went Over. Phillies’ home games have been atypically low scoring thus far (7.4 rpg), but that should start to change. The Giants’ last seven games have been even higher scoring than the Phillies. There’s been an average of 12.1 rpg scored in SF contests over the last week and three times their pitching staff has given up 10+ runs during that stretch. Logan Webb is the starter Monday. Like Gibson, Webb struggles a bit more when facing lefties. The Over has hit in six of the Giants’ last seven series openers and seven straight vs. the NL East. It’s 13-5 their L18 games overall. 10* Over Giants/Phillies |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 196.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Heat (8:30 ET): Historically, Game 7’s tend to go Under. Since 2003, the Under has hit in nearly 65% of all Game 7s. Many were not expecting the Eastern Conference Finals to reach a Game 7. Not after the Celtics bludgeoned the Heat in Games 4 and 5 (both of those stayed Under), then were heading back home for Game 6. But Miami had other ideas, pulling the upset Friday, 111-103 as an eight-point underdog. This will be, predictably, the lowest O/U for any game of the series. I’m still going Under. Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season, giving up just 104.1 points per game. They’ve bested that average here in the postseason, allowing only 101.3, including just 96.8 in the last five games. They held Miami to just 82 and 80 points in Games 4 and 5 with the Heat starters combining to score a paltry 60 points (total!) in those two games. There was no way the Heat weren’t going to improve their shooting in Game 6 and Jimmy Butler was a man on a mission, scoring 47 points himself. I don’t see that happening again though. Nor do I see a combined 56 free throws being attempted in Game 7. That’s how many were attempted in Game 6 with 52 being made. Refs tend to “swallow their whistles” in Game 7s. Miami is also a defensive force, giving up only 100.4 PPG in the playoffs. Boston has hit its season average (111 PPG) only once in this series. This series has been higher-scoring than anticipated, but on Sunday night we’re going to get a real slugfest. Expect fewer possessions, more defensive intensity and less fouls called. 10* Under Celtics/Heat |
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05-26-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): This play may seem a bit “odd” at first, considering I just won with the Under (1st 5 innings) in yesterday’s game involving the Brewers. All three games vs. the Padres stayed Under as no more than five runs were scored in any of the contests (only three yday). Now the Brew Crew are matched up with the division rival Cardinals, who are tied with them for the fourth fewest runs allowed in the National League this season. Two solid starting pitchers have resulted in a low total being set for the series opener on Thursday. But I believe the value here is on the Over. It’s all about matchups. Eric Lauer is off to a solid start to the year for Milwaukee, but his numbers go up on the road and he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is red hot at the moment. St. Louis comes into tonight having scored an average of 6.6 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .296. They’d collected 10 or more hits in six straight games before losing to Toronto 8-1 on Tuesday. The Over is 3-0-1 the L4 times St. Louis has faced a left-handed starter. Lauer, a southpaw, has seen the Over hit in four of his seven starts so far and only one had less than seven total runs scored. He allowed 3 HRs the last time he made a start away from home. Lauer’s ERA in four career appearances vs. St. Louis is 7.90. Adam Wainwright goes here for the home team. The veteran also has nice numbers this year, but here he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that has been killing righties. The Brewers are scoring 5.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter. You’ve got to think that after the San Diego series, where they didn’t do much at the plate but still won two of three, the Brew Crew’s bats are ready to “break out.” Eight or more total runs have been scored in each of Wainwright’s last four starts and when he faced Milwaukee on April 14th, he gave up four runs in just 4 ⅓ innings. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals |
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05-26-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-20 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
9* Under Cubs/Reds (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on this series was Tuesday when I had the Cubs and they rolled to an easy 11-4 victory. The Northsiders also won Monday’s opener, but on Wednesday it was the Reds’ turn to get into the win column, 4-3, as the Cubs failed to score between the first and ninth innings. I expect this afternoon’s series finale to also be a low-scoring affair as the two starting pitchers, Justin Steele for the Cubs and Hunter Greene for the Reds, have a lot to offer. Greene has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts, one of which saw him pulled despite having a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He was just as sharp last Saturday against Toronto where he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings. There’s obviously not a ton to celebrate in the Queen City this season, but Greene is someone to keep an eye on, despite a misleading 1-7 team start record. His average velocity is 99 MPH and he has a strikeout rate of 27.9%. He’s better than his ERA suggests. The Cubs counter with Steele, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP over his L3 starts, even better than Greene. He also has a strikeout rate above 26 percent. The Reds’ lineup is quite lousy as they are hitting a collective .217. Also, they are 2-10 in games vs. left-handed starters. Steele is a southpaw. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid so far this season, ranking third in xFIP during the month of May. This being a day game, don’t go expecting many runs. 9* Under Cubs/Reds |
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05-24-22 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Dodgers, who are clearly the best team in baseball right now, are on fire at the plate. They’ve put up an average of nearly seven runs per game (themselves) over the last week and were 10-1 winners in Monday’s series opener here in the Nation’s Capital. Unsurprisingly, LA is a big moneyline favorite again tonight with Walker Buehler on the mound. I expect their string of high-scoring efforts to continue against former teammate Josiah Gray, but Buehler will likely give up some runs too and that makes the Over the right call in this one. Buehler’s strikeout rate is down this season and he has a 4.24 ERA/1.412 WHIP over his L3 starts. Now that’s mostly due to him giving up five runs in five innings to the Phillies, what ended up being a wild 12-10 game. But Buehler has gone just five innings in four of his last six starts, including three of the last four. On the surface, Washington’s offensive numbers at home look pretty bad (just 2.7 rpg!) but I’d look for them to improve, Juan Soto specifically as he currently is at a career-low in both batting average and OPS. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things around at the plate. The Nats have 36 hits in their L4 games, so the fact they’ve scored 1 run or less in three of them seems a bit unlucky to me. But you can count on the Dodgers to do most of the scoring in this game. They come in having scored a league-high 131 runs this month (6.2 per game) and the Nationals’ pitching staff happens to have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball. Gray, who was sent to Washington as part of the Max Scherzer trade, has a 6.43 ERA and 1.5571 WHIP at home and he’s allowed four or more runs in three of his eight starts overall. I like this total as we’re still below the key number of 9 and I expect just as many total runs scored as we saw yesterday. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): I thought for sure that I had the Under cashed in Game 3 of this series. With 48 seconds remaining, the Heat were up 100-94. The total was 208.5. Stranger things have certainly happened, but you don’t normally see 15+ points scored over the final 48 seconds. Well, Game 3 saw 18 as there were a couple technical fouls plus Boston kept making “garbage time” threes. The Over is now 3-0 in this series, which is not what most were expecting and going back to 2020, the teams are 8-0-1 Over when facing each other in the Conference Finals. Don’t you think it’s time for an Under? There’s a good chance Miami enters Game 4 shorthanded as six players (Lowry, Tucker, Herro, Strus, Vincent and Butler) are all listed as questionable. Though they won despite him leaving Game 3 early, Butler not playing would be significant as he’s been the unquestioned “go to guy” for the Heat at the offensive end in these playoffs. Butler is averaging nearly 30 PPG in the postseason. Bam Adebayo scored 31 in Game 3. Though he should again rack up some good stats, especially if multiple teammates are out, Adebayo isn’t likely to match his Game 3 scoring output as he scored only 16 in the first two games combined. I can’t see Jaylen Brown scoring 40 again for the Celtics either. His previous playoff high was 30. A big key in this series is that we’ve seen high-scoring first halves. The team with the lead at the half (Boston twice) has scored at least 62 points. I don’t anticipate that being the case in Game 4 as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and neither allows more than 53.2 per game in the 1H for the year. So look for the scoring to (finally) slow down as Boston is 12-6 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Under Heat/Celtics |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): The expectation was that the Eastern Conference Finals would be pretty low-scoring. After all, Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 PPG) during the regular season and has been even stingier in the playoffs (103.1 PPG allowed). Not to be overlooked is the fact the Under was 8-2-1 in Miami playoff games in Rounds 1 and 2 with them turning in the second best defensive efficiency rating during that time. The Heat have allowed an average of just 100.5 PPG in the postseason. That’s even after the first two games saw way more points scored than what was expected. With these two teams combining to go 14-0 Over in their L14 Conference Finals games, I think that it’s time to go “the other way” here in Game 3. Boston shot 51% in Game 2 and made 20 threes, numbers they probably can’t hope to match tonight. For a frame of reference, the Celtics shot 45.6% in Game 1 and made only 11 threes. Save for the third quarter of Game 1, they really have looked like the better team in this series. That dubious third quarter is the only quarter in the two games where the Celtics were outscored. (Teams were even in the third and fourth in Game 2). I just don’t think we’re going to see the same amount of scoring from Boston, especially in the first half, tonight. Miami shot just 29.4% from three-point range in the last game. They’ll likely improve from that, but not by enough to affect the total. I expect this game to be played at a slower pace. The Celtics have allowed 103 points or fewer in six of their last nine games. The Heat have allowed 103 or less in 7 of their last 10 games. I think for tonight, the winning team may only need 100. Miami has not allowed 100+ points in three straight games during these playoffs. This is the highest O/U line of the series. 10* Under Heat/Celtics |
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05-21-22 | Empoli v. Atalanta UNDER 4 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Empoli/Atalanta (2:45 ET): Atalanta enters the final matchday of their Serie A season in desperate need of a result. They are tied with Fiorentina (both at 59 points) but lose the tiebreaker based on head to head points. That means Atalanta must finish ahead of La Viola in order to qualify for the Europa Conference League, a spot that only opened up because the winners of the Coppa Italia (Inter) had already qualified for the Champions League, so the corresponding Europa League spot is then passed down to the sixth place finisher (clinched by Roma) on Friday. If Fiorentina loses to Juventus on Saturday, then a draw will suffice here for Atalanta. La Dea may not want to leave that to chance though. Still, I suspect this fixture will be lower scoring than the reverse, which saw Atalanta prevail 4-1. Empoli has endured a simply dreadful run of form lately, winning just ONCE in their last 21 matches! That run has seen them slip only to 14th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, which last year’s Serie B champs will gladly take as the only goal this season was to survive and remain in the Italian top flight. Last week, Empoli could only muster a 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Salernitana. Now Atalanta’s recent form hasn’t been so great either, which is why they are in this predicament. They’ve posted only two wins in their last 10 matches and those victories came against Spezia and Venezia, two bottom of the table sides, the latter having already been relegated. Atalanta couldn’t even get on the scoresheet last week vs. AC Milan, losing 2-0. Goal differential does not matter to La Dea here, all they need is one goal and then try to hold Empoli off for the three points. Not sure if Fiorentina will cooperate, but the task at hand seems rather easy for Atalanta this week. 10* Under Empoli/Atalanta |
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05-20-22 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
9* Over Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston easily won last night’s series opener, 5-1, their second straight game that finished with that exact score. They came out on the losing end against Boston on Wednesday, but this is a series that figures to continue to go the Astros’ way. After all, they are 40-19 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 14-2 their L16 home games vs. the Rangers. But I’m more interested in the total on tonight’s game as this should be a lot higher scoring compared to last night. You can watch on Apple TV! Houston’s pitching has obviously been outstanding this year, but Cristian Javier (Friday’s starter) doesn’t have much to do with that. In three starts, Javier has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He gave up seven runs in his last start, a game the Astros ended up losing 13-6 to the Nationals. While Javier only allowed two runs in five innings when he faced the Rangers back in April, and has consistently fared well against them in the past, the Rangers’ left-handed heavy lineup should consistently make contact and hit the ball hard off Javier tonight. Texas had scored 6+ runs in four straight games coming into this series. Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games and averaged 6.0 rpg in its last seven contests. Now Martin Perez gets the baseball here for the Rangers and not only has he been sharp recently (2-0, 0.84 ERA L5 starts), his 2.84 career ERA vs. Houston (15 starts) is his lowest versus any opponent. But I’ll call for some regression here as I’m not sure I see Perez going 6+ innings a sixth straight time. Note that both teams have seen their L7 games average more than 10 runs. 9* Over Rangers/Astros |
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05-19-22 | Burnley v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa (3:00 ET): So this one is huge for Burnley as they try and escape the drop zone (bottom three) in the Premier League. All it would take is a draw to draw level with Leeds United at 35 points and Burnley would be way ahead on goal differential, thus avoiding relegation to the Championship. But with one more matchday to go after this (Sunday) where they will face a resurgent Newcastle United, a win would be quite nice for the Clarets. Problem is, even against what is probably going to be an unmotivated Aston Villa club, I can’t really trust them on the road. Burnley turned in a game effort last weekend against Tottenham Hotspur, a top four side trying to play its way into next season’s Champions League. But they came up short, 1-0, the lone goal being a Harry Kane penalty in first half stoppage time. It marked the fifth time in the last seven matches that the Clarets scored 1 or 0 goals and they haven’t scored more than two in any fixture since a 3-2 win over Everton back on April 6th. Prior to that win, the Clarets had been blanked in four consecutive matches. So you can see why they are in the position they are in. Only last place Norwich City has scored fewer times than Burnley this season in EPL action. Aston Villa no longer needs to worry about the threat of relegation, but they have suffered 18 defeats this campaign, which is two more than Burnley has and tied for fourth most in the entire English top flight. Villa is coming off a tough 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace (where I again had the Under) and both goals scored came in the final half hour. Villa gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. It was less than two weeks ago they beat Burnley 3-1, but I can’t see Villa scoring three times again here and Burnley’s lone goal in that reverse came in stoppage time. 9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa |
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05-19-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
9* Under White Sox/Royals (2:10 ET): So we’ve got two starting pitchers with pretty ugly numbers in this series finale, but the way the previous four games have gone, I’m not expecting many runs here. Not only have the White Sox only scored a grand total of 11 runs so far against KC pitching, there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 16 of their last 20 games with the Under going 14-5-1. Chicago has scored only six runs total its last three games and is facing an opponent that averages only 2.6 rpg at home. Take the Under in this divisional matchup. The Under is 12-6-1 in Royals’ home games this season, including 3-0-1 in this series. There have been eight total runs scored in two of the four games and just three total in the other two. As alluded to above, I think we’re getting an inflated number here because of the two starting pitchers, neither of whom have very good numbers on the season. But Kansas City’s Carlos Hernandez is 3-0 all-time vs. Chicago with a 2.70 ERA. Hernandez has been rocked in B2B starts, but note the last one was at Coors Field. His final three starts of April all saw him allow 3 ER or less. The White Sox are hitting only .218 in games where they face a left-handed starter. Vince Velaquez was originally going to start yesterday’s game for Chicago, but he was bumped back (in favor of Lucas Giolito) and I think the extra day of rest will work in his favor. As mentioned earlier, Kansas City has simply not been scoring much at home. Only Oakland has averaged fewer runs at home this season. Velasquez, like Hernandez, did get rocked his last time out. But that came against the Yankees. In the two starts prior, Velasquez had allowed a total of only one run in 10 ⅔ innings. He allowed more HRs (3) last time out than he did in his previous five starts combined (2). A bounce back is in order today. 9* Under White Sox/Royals |
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05-19-22 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 8 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
9* Under Yankees/Orioles (12:35 ET): Baltimore hopes to avoid what would be a four-game sweep here, at home, but that’s easier said than done as they’re up against a Yankees team that is 23-4 its last 27 games and off to one of the best starts in franchise history. Not only have the Orioles lost six straight times to the Yankees, they’ve also lost six in a row overall. Yesterday’s game, a 3-2 Yanks’ win, was the lowest scoring of this series and I figure we’re in store for another one like that here as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound Thursday afternoon. Take the Under. This will be the third time this season that NY’s Jordan Montgomery is facing Baltimore. Montgomery may not have a win against the O’s, or any one else for that matter, but he does have a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP, so he’s probably “due.” The two starts vs. Baltimore have seen Montgomery yield just two runs and seven hits in 10 ⅔ IP. Both games stayed Under. Incredibly, all seven of Montgomery’s starts have stayed Under this year as he’s the one pitcher the Yanks can’t seem to score for. In six of the seven games, they’ve scored three runs or less. But the O’s should continue their struggles vs. lefties as the Yanks are allowing just 2.9 rpg in day games (opponents hitting .216). Bruce Zimmerman has inarguably been Baltimore’s best starter in 2022. He checks in with a 1.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and hopes the Yanks’ struggles to support Montgomery continue. They should as Zimmerman has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. Three times he hasn’t allowed ANY earned runs and two of those were against the Yankees! Save for Aaron Judge, most of the NY lineup hasn’t had much success against Zimmerman, or lefties in general, at least as of late. The Under is now 25-11-2 in all Orioles’ games this season, which includes 13-1-1 when they are up against a LH starter. This promises to be a good ol’ fashioned pitchers’ duel. 9* Under Yankees/Orioles |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* Under Mavs/Warriors (9:00 ET): Dallas stunned the basketball world with its 33-point Game 7 victory at Phoenix Sunday night. They allowed just 27 first half points and 50 through three quarters! So while this team has been notably better at home on the defensive end, it would be foolish to discount what they can do on the road. Golden State is also a team that’s underrated defensively. They allow only 103.1 PPG at home (2nd lowest, only trailing Dallas) and also finished the regular season #1 in defensive efficiency. Something else that must be considered when handicapping this series is that Dallas plays at an incredibly slow pace (last in tempo during the regular season). I’m on the Under in Game 1. Over its last five games vs. Memphis, the Warriors only averaged 109.8 points and that was with the 142-point explosion in Game 3. Dallas will easily be the best defensive team that the Warriors have faced this postseason as the Nuggets and Grizzlies ended up 15th and 12th in scoring defense. The Mavs allowed just 96.2 PPG the L5 games and 101.9 for the entire playoffs. This despite facing the team that tied for the regular season lead in offensive efficiency (Utah) and a top five scoring offense (Phoenix). Back to tempo, Dallas is playing even slower than they did in the regular season. Obviously, they’re going to look to slow these games vs. the Warriors to a “snail’s pace.” While I expect the Dallas defense to shine tonight, do not look for the team to shoot 56.8% from the field again as it did in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. In three of its last four home games, Golden State has allowed fewer than 100 points. Luka Doncic is coming off a monster series (32.6 PPG), but I do not expect him to find that same kind of success here vs. the Warriors. Two of the four regular season matchups between these teams were low-scoring (208 or less pts scored) while the other two were high-scoring (228+). I expect something along the lines of the former. 10* Under Mavs/Warriors |
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05-18-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over D’backs/Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers hit a bit of a “rough patch” there “for a second,” at one point losing four in a row and five of six. But they’ve clearly recovered, spurred on by a late rally against the Phillies on Sunday (I was on Dodger Blue that day) and now they’ve taken three straight from the division rival D’backs. They go for the series sweep this afternoon with Walker Buehler on the mound and there’s probably little doubt in anyone’s mind as to which side will win this matinee. But I don’t think there’s much value in backing LA in this spot, even on the run line. Instead, let’s turn to the total. Los Angeles is my #1 rated team in all of baseball right now as they are +81 in run differential. Only one other team is above +50 and that’s the Yankees (+74). No team has scored more runs this season than have the Dodgers (198) and over the L7 games they’ve averaged a whopping 7.0 runs. At home, they are averaging 5.9 rpg for the season. So the D’backs starter, Zach Davies, figures to find himself in the “deep water” here, especially with a 5.12 FIP on the road. Davies has actually pitched pretty well in 2022, but has not gone longer than five innings in any of his three road outings. All three games in this series have gone Over. In yesterday’s doubleheader, Arizona jumped out to leads of 3-0 and 2-0, but was obviously unable to hold either time. Still them scoring nine runs Tuesday is a positive sign for this play as is their ability to score on the Dodgers’ starters. Buehler is notoriously tough, but does have a 4.35 ERA and 1.645 WHIP at home through four starts. Those numbers coupled with a Dodgers’ bullpen that has been subpar of late lead me to believe the road team is going to score some runs here as well. Over the L7 games, the Dodgers are allowing an average of 6.6 runs! 10* Over D’backs/Dodgers |
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05-17-22 | Reds v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Reds/Guardians (6:10 ET): I’m a little surprised that this O/U isn’t higher. These are two of the top four Over teams in baseball over the first month with the Reds being #1. The reason for Cincy being so far in front of the rest of the pack in the Over department is pretty clear. Their horrendous pitching staff is giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game, most in all of MLB. As a result, they’ve gone Over 64.7% of the time. No other team has gone Over more than 58.8% of its games. Cleveland is 4th (57.6%), more due to its offense, which has produced the third most runs in the American League. But also only one AL team has allowed more runs per game. With the Reds and then the Tigers coming to town over the next week, the Guardians would seem to have an excellent opportunity to move up the standings. They’re 16-17 right now, 3.5 games back of the Twins, but also are one of only five AL teams to currently have a positive YTD run differential. But despite the (seemingly) favorable matchup today, expect Cleveland to give up some runs. Starter Zach Plesac has a 4.68 ERA and has shown little signs of improvement, turning in a 8.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three outings. It did not take long for this season to be a disaster for the Reds. They have the worst record & run differential. The unthinkable happened on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and lost 1-0! Maybe that’s why we’re getting such good value with this number. Connor Overton has been one of the Reds’ better starters, but he’s also gotten to face Pittsburgh in two of his three starts. Overton had four walks and just one strikeout his last time out, which is concerning. These teams played two games in Cincinnati earlier this year. Cleveland won both and there were 15 and 10 total runs scored. Look for another slugfest tonight. 10* Over Reds/Guardians |
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05-16-22 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
9* Under Nationals/Marlins (6:40 ET): The ML odds have shot up for this series opener, which I suppose makes sense given the Nationals’ general ineptitude (12-24 record) and the fact they’ve already been swept once by the Marlins this season. But the only other time Miami was this large of a ML favorite in 2022, they lost. Plus the Fish aren’t exactly flashing fine form at the moment. They’ve dropped 11 of 14 overall here in May. What I’ve got my eyes on here is the total, which is also on the move. Washington road games have averaged 11.3 runs so far this season. That’s easily the most in all of baseball. There were three games in Colorado, in case you were wondering. What’s unique about the average is that the Nats are scoring the most runs per game in all of MLB, away from home. They are also giving up the fourth most. It’s unsustainable, at least to this degree. Over the team’s last four games, all of which were at home, they scored 1 run or less three times. I think we’re about to see that meager offense start to “travel.” Sandy Alcantara is off a very sharp outing where he held Arizona to just one run on two hits over 7 IP. That game did end up going Over, but it was an 11-3 Miami win and they scored eight of those runs in the top of the ninth (I had Miami!). Alcantara also held Washington to just one run over six innings back on 4/29. Overall, he’s allowed 2 ER or less in all but one start this season. The Marlins’ offense has largely been “feast or famine” this year and has scored three times or less in 7 of the last 10 games. That’s good news for Washington starter Aaron Sanchez, who had a 0.93 ERA in two starts vs. Miami last year. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 205.5 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Mavs/Suns (8:00 ET): I hit the Over in Game 1, but this is a series that has seen the Under take over - cashing each of the last four games. Two of those four games I’ve hit the Under, three of the games saw fewer than 200 total points scored. This will be the lowest O/U line of the series in Game 7, not surprising based on the trajectory of the series as well as the well-known trend about betting totals in Game 7’s of the NBA Playoffs. Since ‘03, Game 7 Unders have hit 63% of the time, helped by a typically slower tempo and the referees “swallowing their whistles.” I’m following the historical trend on this one. Phoenix is hoping another trend plays out in this Game 7. Home teams have performed very well historically in Game 7s, going 109-33 straight up, including 9-1 when favored by six or more (as the Suns are right now, as of press time). Plus, the home team has gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series so far. But it is difficult to look past the fact that the Suns had the lowest Round 1 net efficiency rating of any team that advanced and they are only outscoring Dallas by less than a point per game since Game 3. So I’ve got no interest in laying the points here. Especially since the Suns’ shooting has come back “down to Earth” (just 39.7% in Game 6). The Suns are 12-3 Under playing with exactly two days of rest this season. They are also 12-4 Under off a SU loss as a favorite, 10-2 Under off a double digit loss and 8-1 Under after being held below 100 points the previous game. So there’s even more trends. Dallas may not be as stout defensively on the road as they are at home, but they also won’t make 16 threes again like they did in Game 6. The Mavs not only played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season; they’ve also played at the slowest pace in the playoffs, of any team that advanced to the second round. 10* Under Mavs/Suns |
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05-15-22 | Mariners v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
10* Over Mariners/Mets (1:40 ET): The Mets haven’t lost a series all year and will look to extend their streak to 10-0-1 here on Sunday. (They split a four-game series with Atlanta earlier this month, but that’s the only of their 10 previous series they didn’t win). Now they almost blew having an opportunity to win this series with Seattle as Saturday saw the Mets blow a four-run lead in the latter innings. But third-string catcher Patrick Mazeika won it in the bottom of the seventh with a tiebreaker home run. The Mets now have the best record in the National League (23-12) and are second in the overall standings, trailing only the Yankees. Seattle won the first game of this series, 2-1 on Friday. They were huge +215 ML underdogs, facing Max Scherzer. But sloppy play in the field (three errors) cost them yesterday plus they left the bases loaded in the first inning. The Mariners, who I expected to regress here in 2022, have now dropped 13 of their last 17 games. They’ll send Robbie Ray to the bump today and he has struggled so far, producing a 4.22 ERA. Ray did have a season-high 10 K’s his last start, but before that, strikeouts were down and walks were up compared to last season. Ray also has a 1.473 WHIP on the road. The Mets, now 11-1 after a loss this season, counter with Carlos Carrasco. His numbers, especially at home (0.87 ERA, 0.822 WHIP), have been very good. But don't be surprised if he struggles a bit here. Carrasco also doesn’t have great strikeout numbers and he was rocked earlier this year by St. Louis. He has followed that up with B2B quality starts, including eight shutout innings vs. Atlanta. But I expect Carrasco’s numbers to go up and this looks like a really low total to jump on. The Over is 15-3 in the Mariners’ last 18 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Mariners/Mets |
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05-15-22 | Crystal Palace v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa (9:00 AM ET): Out of contention for the European places, but safe from relegation, it’s going to be a mid-table finish for both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa this Premier League season. I’d argue Crystal Palace is due to possibly move up a few spots, into the Top 10, before the season is complete as the Eagles actually boast the 7th highest xPts (expected points) total in the league right now. They have never finished higher than 10th in the English top flight (currently 11th w/ 44 points), so that is something to keep them motivated these last three fixtures. Aston Villa is just one point back of CP entering matchday 36, but they do have an inferior GD and the gap is much wider on xPts. But like CP, Villa has shown decent form down the stretch. We played them +1.5 earlier in the week against Liverpool and thanks to an early goal (3rd minute!), they were able to cash in what ended up being a 2-1 loss to one of the two best Premier League sides. Giving up the equalizer so quickly (sixth minute) was not ideal, but the game-winner for Liverpool didn’t come until the 65th minute. Note that in their previous three matches, Villa had conceded a total of just one goal, that coming in stoppage time vs. Burnley (when Villa was already ahead 3-0). Similarly, Crystal Palace has been stingy of late. They’ve conceded just two goals in the last four matches and they won for us (1-0 over Watford) last week. That makes it three in a row w/o a loss for the Eagles. I am expecting a low-scoring encounter on Sunday, not as free-wheeling as you might expect between two mid-table sides at this stage of the campaign. Both are hungry for that top half finish, so we won’t be seeing many goals at Villa Park. Palace is actually third from the bottom in xG (expected goals) on their travels this season. Four of the last five meetings have seen one - or both - sides fail to hit the scoresheet. 9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa |
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05-14-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
9* Under Blue Rays/Rays (6:10 ET): I think we’ve got a great value on the total in today’s Blue Jays-Rays matchup. Both teams are staring up at the Yankees in the AL East and figure to do so the rest of the way. Right now, not just the AL East, but the entire American League seems wide open as only five teams have positive run differentials and only six have winning records. Interestingly, these are two of the six, but neither has a positive run differential. Despite what, on paper, looks to be an “ugly” starting pitching matchup, I say to look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated here. It was 5-2 in the Rays’ favor last night. That was an Over though based on the closing number of 6.5. Six of Toronto’s last seven games have gone Over, even though they are batting a collective .216 during that stretch. The Rays have been even weaker at the plate over that stretch, hitting .212. Tampa Bay has seen three of its last four games go Over, but that includes giving up a ton of runs in two games vs. the Angels, who they are no longer facing. This being a divisional matchup, there’s more familiarity between the two clubs and that typically leads to lower-scoring games. It’s been pretty rare to see a total of 8.0 or higher for either of these two teams recently. Now a big reason for the inflated total is the two starting pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu was not good in either of his first two starts, giving up 11 runs in 7 ⅓ innings. But he hasn’t pitched in a month (was dealing with forearm inflammation). I’m looking for a far better outing here as Ryu has a 2.70 ERA in four previous trips to the mound vs. TB. Ryan Yarbrough had a bad first start of 2022 for the Rays, but then tossed five shutout innings vs. Seattle in his second (and most recent) start. He is 8-2 (with a 3.23 ERA) all-time vs. Toronto. The Under is 8-1-3 the L11 meetings between these two, including 7-1-1 here at Tropicana Field. 9* Under Blue Jays/Rays |
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05-14-22 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Tigers/Orioles (4:10 ET): These are two of the perennial “also-rans” in the American League, but the Orioles aren’t half-bad in 2022. Well, they’re still 14-19 overall and did just lose last night 4-2 to the Tigers. But we’re talking about a ballclub that has been the worst in baseball over the last several seasons, losing 108+ games each of the L3 years that there have been 162 games played. Right now, it is Detroit that owns the worst record in the AL (10-23) even after Friday’s victory. I expect more runs to be scored in Saturday’s matinee. While the starting pitching matchup seems decent, from both teams' perspective, neither team is shy about giving up runs. Baltimore allows 5.2 runs per game on the road, so that alone makes this total seem VERY low. Detroit is not exactly a force offensively, but they do score more at home than they do on the road. They will face Bruce Zimmerman, who has been much improved for the O’s this season, with a 1.78 ERA and 1.121 WHIP. But I’m not at all convinced that will continue. Baltimore’s bullpen is also not very good. The Tigers turn to Michael Pineda as their Saturday starter. Like Zimmerman, Pineda is off to a better than expected start with a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. All four of his starts have gone Under, but in two of them he received literally no run support (as in the Tigers were shutout). I don’t see that being the case here and Pineda did have a starter earlier this year where he allowed three home runs. 10* Over Tigers/Orioles |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 217.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well, Game 5 DID go Over (as I predicted), just not in the manner that I thought it might. My thought was that it would be Golden State responding from a Game 4 performance where it shot just 40% overall and 24.3% from three-point range. Memphis was also due for a little three-point improvement itself (they shot 25.7% in Game 4). What actually happened though was the Grizzlies exploding for 134 points in a one-sided beatdown! Thus the series heads back to Golden State, with the Grizz still trailing three games to two. The Warriors are big favorites to close things out tonight at home, but I think the better play here is the Under. For the record, the Warriors DID improve their shooting in Game 5. They made five more threes than they did in Game 4, but wound up attempting their fewest number of shots in any game in the series (80) and had just 13 FT attempts (made 9). Other than their own offensive explosion (142 points) in Game 3, the Dubs have now been held to 101 pts or less in three of the last four games. So Memphis has done an excellent job defensively in this series. We’ve also yet to see B2B Overs. I don’t see the Grizzlies making 43.9% from behind the arc again as they did in Game 5. Of course, they are still without Ja Morant. Even though the team is 21-6 SU when Morant sits this season, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect big points from them here. They won’t be at home tonight as they were in Game 5. Golden State is allowing just 103.2 PPG at home, second fewest in the league. Memphis had seven players finish in double figures Weds night, but none had more than 21. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors have been off a loss. With this being the lowest O/U of the series, the Over will be tempting to some. But not me. 10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors |
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05-13-22 | Guardians v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
9* Over Guardians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland is dealing with a COVID outbreak and won’t have skipper Terry Francona on the bench Friday, nor most of the coaching staff. Pitching coach Carl Willis will manage the team this weekend. I was set to fade the Guardians on Wednesday when their game was postponed. That was due to the fact Aaron Civale was going to start. Civale will instead start tonight’s series opener vs. the Twins, who have been struggling at the plate including two shutout losses in their last three games. But Civale’s numbers indicate this is a spot where Minnesota can get back on track - at least offensively. Civale has a 9.45 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. All five of his starts have gone Over with the opposition combining to score 38 runs. That’s an average of more than 7.0 per game. Lately, things have gotten even worse for Civale as he has an 11.37 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in his L3 starts. Most of his struggles have been on the road where he has a 12.20 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in three outings. Yes, the Twins did only muster three totals runs in their last series and I cashed an Under bet on them yesterday. But they are no longer facing the Astros’ pitching staff. Cleveland is bottom six right now in runs allowed per game. But the surprising thing about the Guardians is that they are tied for fifth for most runs scored per game. Them and the woeful Reds, who have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball, are the only two teams to have seen 60% or more of their games go Over the total thus far. Here the Guardians’ lineup will face Sonny Gray, whose numbers look okay until you realize he’s only pitched 10 ⅓ innings. His walk rate is a concern and I expect him to struggle this evening. That will be a problem for the Twins as their bullpen is taxed right now. 9* Over Guardians/Twins |
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05-13-22 | Brewers v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Brewers/Marlins (6:40 ET): We have two tremendous starting pitchers on the mound for this series opener between the Brewers and Marlins. The Brewers’ Corbin Burnes has seen five of his six starts stay Under the total (one push), due in no small part to the fact he is sporting a 1.86 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. For the Marlins, they’ve got Pablo Lopez, who has a 1.25 ERA and 0.889 WHIP. So, in other words, do not expect either team to come close to putting up the same number of runs they scored in their last game. Milwaukee just got done facing Cincinnati, which should have been an easy series, but instead they dropped two of three games in the Queen City. Shockingly, the Brewers’ staff allowed 28 runs in those three games including 14 in a wild loss on Wednesday. Normally, when you score 11 times against the Reds, that should be an automatic win. But alas, it was not for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. Note that while Miami also scored 11 runs on Weds (and I cashed them in a ML victory), eight of those came in the top of the ninth. Prior to that inning, the Marlins were on pace to score three runs or less for the sixth time in seven games. Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season, in case you forgot. It would certainly appear as if he’s going to be in contention for that award again in 2022. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts while never allowing more than 2 ER. And there have been six or fewer total runs scored in four of those five contests. The Marlins have five regulars in their everyday lineup hitting under .220. Doesn’t sound optimal when facing Burnes. But Miami’s saving grace here could be Lopez, whose ERA is the lowest right now in the NL He’s allowed no runs in four of his last five starts and just went eight innings his last time out. The Brewers will be without DH McCutchen. 10* Under Brewers/Marlins |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/76ers (7:05 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the 76ers, who are facing elimination after being blown out of the water Tuesday in Miami. They lost 120-85, shooting only 36.5% overall and 28.1% from three-point range. I made a terrible call taking the Sixers plus the points in that game, but will look to atone for it here by playing the Under. Yes, you should obviously expect Philadelphia to shoot better than it did in Game 5. But the road team has shot poorly in all five games in this series, so look for Miami to regress from its 53.6% shooting (13 of 33 from three) in the last game. In Games 3 and 4 here in Philadelphia, the Heat went a combined 14 of 65 from three-point range. That’s 21.5%. One of the games saw them finish with only 79 points as a team. Other than Jimmy Butler, no Miami player has been a factor offensively here in the city of Brotherly Love. Butler’s teammates combined to go just 25 of 62 (40%) in Game 4. In Game 3, they totaled only 46 points! Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again tonight. Miami’s defense, as expected, has been outstanding in this series. For the playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 98.2 PPG and the Under is 7-2. They’ve held the Sixers below 100 points in three of the five games, including twice since Joel Embiid has returned. Aside from Game 4, James Harden has been subpar, scoring 20 pts or less in the other four games. Philly has now been held below 100 in four of its last seven games. While it’s never happened in consecutive games, tonight may break that pattern. 10* Under Heat/76ers |
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05-12-22 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
9* Under Astros/Twins (3:10 ET): Houston is blistering hot right now, having won its last eight games. Now there’s a small chance that win streak could be over by the time this game gets underway. That’s due to the fact that yday’s game here in Minnesota was suspended (in the 4th inning) due to rain. Now it’s more likely that the Astros will be on a nine-game win streak when we get to the first pitch here as they are up 5-1 in the suspended game. Regardless of the result of the resumed game today, I like the Under here as the ‘Stros have allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games and 13 of the last 14! There’s a good chance that streak extends another game as well, considering the Twins have only one run on the board in the game that will be completed beforehand. Starting the “second” game for Houston will be Luis Garcia, who has certainly contributed to his team’s amazing pitching run by delivering B2B quality starts. Last time out, Garcia allowed only two runs (one unearned) and two hits over seven innings. He has a 1.80 ERA on the road and will be facing a Twins’ lineup that is still without Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton only returned yesterday (from a hip injury) and was 0 for 2 with a strikeout. Truly incredible is that the Houston pitching staff has posted four shutouts in the last eight games and has given up only eight runs total! So Minnesota is going to need a strong outing here and I think they get it from Josh Winder, who has yet to allow an earned run. A rookie that the Astros have never seen before, Winder’s first two career starts have seen him allow only five hits in 12 IP. Minnesota is only allowing 2.8 rpg at home thus far and opponents are batting just .200. It’s not like Houston has been scoring a ton during its win streak; only once have they topped five runs and they’ve scored three or less in 6 of their L10 games. Look for a low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Astros/Twins |
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05-12-22 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
9* Over Mets/Nationals (1:05 ET): After going Under each of their L3 head to head meetings, the Mets & Nationals finally combined to go Over last night. The final score was 8-3 (Nats won) and interestingly enough all 11 runs were scored in the first two innings. We may not get that kind of explosive start at the plate this afternoon, but there are two struggling starters on the mound and by the end of the game, I expect the Over to hit again. Taijuan Walker is the Mets starter and he comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. What is crazy is that all three starts have come against the Phillies! Walker was really roughed up his last time out, allowing seven runs (six earned) in just four innings of work. He allowed two home runs as well. Walker had previously allowed no runs this year, but those first two starts vs. the Phillies had spanned only seven innings. I know the Washington lineup had struggled at home so far, but yesterday was a positive sign and they are hitting righties well in the month of May. Walker has a 5.24 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Nats. The Mets’ bullpen is taxed after heavy usage yesterday (starter Megill lasted only 1 ⅓ innings. The Mets need a win today to avoid what would be their first series loss of 2022. Yesterday’s defeat marked just the third time they lost a game by 5+ runs. The offense should do better here against Joan Adon, who has really struggled in his six starts this year. Adon has a 6.99 ERA and 1.659 WHIP this season and he’s 0-3 w/ a 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 starts. The Mets had their chances to score after the 1st inning yday, but went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Adon’s 1st start of 2022 came against the Mets and he allowed four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 9* Over Mets/Nationals |
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (9:30 ET): So Grizzlies’ star point guard Ja Morant has a bone bruise and a playoff return is looking unlikely. That’s basically a “death knell” for a Memphis team already facing elimination Weds night. Without Morant, the Grizz turned in a “game” effort in Game 4 @ Golden State, but came up three points shy (101-98) and are now facing a 3-1 series deficit. The Warriors were probably already the better team (been favored in every game) even with a healthy Morant available. Certainly, the expectation will be for the Dubs to close things out here. But I think the better play is the Over. You may recall that I last played the Over in this series back in Game 1. It hit rather easily, going Over despite the number being bet up several points. Oddsmakers set the O/U line way too low for that series opener and the public made them pay. But they evidently learned their lesson as the O/U line opened 227.5 for Game 2. Two of the last three games have stayed Under, including Game 4 (when I had the Under). I didn’t think the oddsmakers adjusted enough for Morant’s absence in Game 4, but now it seems as if we’ve got an overcorrection as this will be the lowest O/U for any game in the series. The last game stayed way Under (by 23 points) as both teams struggled from three-point range. It was a combined 18 of 72 (25%). From the start, it was obvious the game was going to stay Under. Only 79 total points were scored in the 1H and 131 through three quarters. Given Golden State shot 63.1% overall in the previous game and 53% from three-point range, it was obvious they would regress Monday, but along those same lines, we should see vast improvement for Game 5. Memphis is due to shoot the ball better as well as I don’t expect them to go down without a fight, at home. 10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well this series has certainly taken a nasty turn, with hard fouls and injuries defining the last two games. In Game 2, it was the Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks’ hard foul on the Warriors’ Gary Payton II (out indefinitely) taking two players out of the Game 3 proceedings (Brooks was suspended). Brooks will return for Game 4, but unfortunately for Memphis, Ja Morant is now questionable after the Warriors’ Jordan Poole appeared to grab his knee, re-injuring it. Whether or not Morant ends up playing on Monday, I like the Under here. Certainly, Golden State will not be replicating its Game 3 shooting, which had them at a blistering 63.1% overall and 53.1% from three-point range. If you recall from my Game 3 analysis, I called for the Warriors to regain their shooting touch after they shot a poor 42.1% overall in the Game 2 loss, which included 7 of 38 from three, a franchise record for futility. But even I, as someone holding a ticket on the Dubs minus the points in Game 3, did not expect what we ended up getting. The team finished with 142 points and made 17 threes. Their overall and “true” shooting percentage for the game were both the second highest in NBA Playoff history. According to his head coach Taylor Jenkins, there’s “probably a really good chance” that Morant doesn’t play in Game 4. That would obviously be a significant loss for Memphis offensively. Morant was Top 10 in points per game in the regular season and was also leading the league in assists per game here in the playoffs. Even if he does somehow manage to play, Morant clearly will not be the same. With the Grizzlies likely without their best player (and one of the top scorers in the league) and the Warriors’ shooting certain to regress, I think the Under is a pretty easy call here in Game 4. These were two of the top four teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season (GSW #1) and the Dubs allow only 103.4 PPG at home. 8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Bucks (7:30 ET): My NBA Playoff record has been pretty good thus far, but admittedly it would be even better if not for some stubbornness when it comes to choosing the Over in this particular series. It’s been flawed logic (to this point) waiting for the “roulette wheel to come up red” as all seven Bucks’ games this postseason have stayed Under. Oddsmakers have been scrambling to adjust as we’ve gone from a closing O/U line of 230.5 for Game 1 of the first round series (vs. Chicago) to a closing O/U line of 212 for the last game of this series. With every game, the O/U line has dropped. My thought process, flawed as it has been, is that we’re getting value with the O/U line decreasing so much. As a reminder, Milwaukee led the Eastern Conference in scoring (115.5 PPG) during the regular season. But it has been their incredible DEFENSIVE efficiency rating (96.1) that has carried them throughout the playoffs. Consider that the #2 team (Miami) has a postseason defensive efficiency rating of 103.0. Boston isn’t too shabby defensively in its own right, ranking third in postseason defensive efficiency rating and second in the regular season. But, interestingly enough, this is the first time in the series we’ve seen a clear influx of early money coming in on the Over. That’s easy to understand. Whereas Boston shot horribly in Game 1 (33.3% overall) and Milwaukee shot horribly in Game 2 (3 of 18 from three-point range), BOTH teams were bad from the floor in Game 3. The Celtics were back down to 36.8% overall while the Bucks weren’t much better (at 40.4%). The teams combined to shoot 18 of 67 (26.8%) from behind the arc. I expect improvement across the board in the shooting department - from both teams - here in Game 4. Scoring has jumped in every game, from 190 in Game 1 to 195 in Game 2 to 204 in Game 3. Another jump comes here and we FINALLY cash that elusive Over ticket on Milwaukee. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks |
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05-08-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 215 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Mavericks (3:30 ET): Phoenix probably cannot continue to shoot as well from three-point range as they have so far in this series (45.6%), especially considering they are up against a Dallas team that only allows 101.3 PPG at home this season. Sure enough, the Mavs held the Suns to only 94 points in Game 3, picking up their first win of the series. I’m expecting another strong effort from the home team at the defensive end of the floor today, considering the most points they’ve allowed in any of their four home playoff games so far is 104. Yet the Mavs have scored 103 or less themselves in more than half of their own postseason games. It’s just 210.2 total PPG scored in Mavs’ playoff games. They held Utah, who was tied for the most efficient offense in the regular season, below 100 PPG. Phoenix shot the lights out in Games 1 & 2 (particularly Gm 2), but then here in Dallas, the Mavs returned to their stingy ways. The Suns were still 13 of 28 from three-point range, but made far less shots overall compared to the first two games. I should also point out how, in the regular season, Dallas played at the slowest tempo in the league. Game 3 was Phoenix’s lowest-scoring effort of the season, but something else that deserves to be pointed out is how they are 7-1 Under this season after being held below 100 points in the previous game. It’s not just three-point regression that should be in store for the Suns. They are shooting 52.6% overall in the playoffs, up from 48.8% for the season. The Under is 30-14 in all Dallas’ home games this season. 10* Under Suns/Mavericks |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Bucks (3:30 ET): This series heads back to Milwaukee with the teams tied 1-1. Both picked up their respective wins in fairly dominant fashion. The Bucks rolled in Game 1, 101-89, snapping a 9-game ATS losing streak to the Celtics. As expected both teams shot better overall in Game 2 (46.6% for Milwaukee, 47.5% for Boston), but the Bucks were doomed by going 3 of 18 from three-point range (16.7%). Boston made more threes (20) than Milwaukee even attempted and the incredible +51 point edge the Celtics enjoyed from beyond the arc essentially guaranteed victory. The final score was 109-86. The Under is now 7-0 in Milwaukee playoff games. Oddsmakers continue to drop the total, which was 230.5 for Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Chicago), if you can believe that. We’re now down to 212.5 (as of press time). Barring some kind of massive wave of Over money on this game (which I do not anticipate), this will be the eighth straight Bucks’ game where the O/U line is lower than the previous one. Considering they were the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, I feel the Over is now inevitable. I know I’ve been saying that for awhile now, but this is poised to be the lowest O/U line for any Bucks’ game since before X-Mas! Bucks’ games still average 225.6 points this season, even with the run of postseason Unders. Celtics’ games average 215.9, so this number is below that. I know both teams are capable of playing great defense, but there is simply no way Milwaukee isn’t going to see a dramatic increase in three-point shooting from Game 2, similar to what we saw with Boston in Game 2 after they shot a woeful 33.3% overall in Game 1. The Celtics have made 38 three-pointers in the first two games. The teams will have had three days off between games when they take the court Saturday. Boston games have averaged 226 PPG in that situation this year while Milwaukee games have averaged 221.1. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks |
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05-05-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians (6:10 ET): Only Cincinnati (with its horrible pitching) has seen more games go Over this season than has Cleveland, who split a doubleheader here at home with San Diego yesterday. Both games were decided by one run, the first being a 5-4 loss while second being a 6-5 come from behind win. It’s not a great spot for the Guardians here as they face an immediate turnaround with the Blue Jays coming to town. But the starting pitcher Toronto is sending out, Jose Berrios, has one of the more fortunate 5-0 team start records in recent memory as his ERA and WHIP are 4.13 and 1.583. Honestly, if it weren’t for the situation of being off a doubleheader and having Aaron Civale starting tonight, I would have considered Cleveland at plus money in this series opener. But Civale has been horrific to this point with a 10.68 ERA and 1.954 WHIP after four outings. It’s actually rather shocking that the team has won twice with him on the mound. One of those was last time out, 9-8 over Oakland. For the second straight start, Civale gave up six runs in four innings or less. He has yet to pitch longer than four innings in any start and opponents are batting a blistering .349 against him. With the expectation that both starting pitchers are going to struggle in this matchup, I’m taking the Over. Not surprisingly, all four Civale starts this season have gone Over. Berrios’ numbers are somewhat skewed by his first start (lasted only one-third of an inning and gave up four runs), but he’s very lucky to have the 5-0 TSR and certainly should have allowed more runs to this point. Toronto was thought to have one of the better offenses coming into 2022, but surprisingly Cleveland is scoring more than them so far. The Over is 4-0 the L4 Guardians’ home games where they have been the ‘dog. 8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians |
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05-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Reds/Brewers (1:40 ET): The Cincinnati Reds are setting baseball back to the 1890s. Last night’s horrific 18-4 defeat (at the hands of Milwaukee) leaves them at 3-21 on the year with a -82 run differential. They’ve lost eight straight and 19 of 20. This is the unquestioned worst team in all of baseball this year. Unfortunately for the Reds, Thursday afternoon has them again facing the Brewers, who have been cleaning up against the dregs of the NL Central as of late. But I look for today’s game to be a lot lower scoring than yesterday and most recent Reds’ games. Take the Under here. If you’ve been paying any attention to baseball this season, then you know there were an abundance of Unders early on. Only two teams have gone Over in more than 55% of their games and leading the charge is Cincinnati at 14-9-1. Seven of their last eight games have seen nine or more total runs scored. But I think this one is going to be different. Part of that is the Reds are dead last in the National League at 3.1 runs per game. They are even worse on the road where they are scoring just 2.7 rpg with a collective .186 average. Figuring that Milwaukee wins again here, they will only have to come up to bat eight times in this game. Cincinnati’s woeful offensive numbers figure not to get any better after today as they’ll be facing Adrian Houser, who is one of several Milwaukee starters off to a strong start in 2022. Houser has been especially dominant in his two previous home starts (0.77 ERA, 1.028 WHIP), allowing just one run in 11 ⅔ IP. Brewers’ pitching has allowed only 14 runs to score over the L7 games. Now while the Brew Crew offense did explode for 18 runs last night, such a performance is obviously atypical, especially from them. The team is still hitting only .228 on the year. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene is a bit better than his numbers show. 10* Under Reds/Brewers |
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05-05-22 | Angels v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 8-0 | Push | 0 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): I had thought the Halos were going to come in and take Tuesday’s series opener, but as it turns out, that assessment was a “day early.” After losing 4-0 on Tuesday, Los Angeles bounced back with a 10-5 win last night. But the number of runs scored in Wednesday’s game was a little bit misleading. The Angels got 10 runs off just eight hits and the game went to extra innings. It was 4-4 at the end of nine, but the visitors quickly put things to bed with two HRs in the 10th. Let’s not forget LA had been shutout in three of its previous four games. I like the Under this afternoon. A major reason I like the Under here is the starting pitching matchup. Shohei Ohtani will go for the Angels, and aside from one bad start (when I faded him 4/14 vs. Texas), he’s been great. You’re talking a 30-5 KW ratio and he’s allowed just two runs and six hits total in his L2 starts. Ohtani was especially dominant when he last started on the road, holding Houston to just one hit over six scoreless innings. He also had 12 strikeouts that day. Ohtani wasn’t quite as dominant last week vs. Cleveland, but still allowed only two runs and five hits. Here he should have little trouble with a Boston lineup that is scoring just 3.3 rpg vs. right-handed starters. Prior to two of their last three games going Over (I cashed the Over in a 9-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday), the Red Sox had seen the Under go 10-1-1 over a 12-game stretch. They will send veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the bump today. Hill can’t be counted on to go very long, but he has tossed four scoreless in each of his L2 outings. Last time out, he allowed just one hit and didn’t walk anyone either. Hill has allowed only two home runs this season and he’s not being hit particularly hard. The Boston bullpen is solid, which is key as well. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times the Angels scored 5+ runs their previous game. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
8* Over 76ers/Heat (7:35 ET): Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here. Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. Both teams figure to improve from distance tonight as they shoot 36.5% and 37.6% from behind the arc, respectively. Miami was in fact the league’s best three-point shooting team, percentage-wise in the regular season. Philadelphia was seventh. Going a combined 15 of 70 from deep is highly uncharacteristic for these two teams. For the Heat, who are still missing Kyle Lowry, I expect Jimmy Butler to play better than he did in Game 1 where he finished with only 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting. He typically follows a subpar game with a good one. Tyler Herro stepped in Game 1 for Miami, outscoring Philly’s bench by himself. With Lowry still out, Herro figures to continue to put up nice numbers. Speaking of the Philly bench, they’ve got to be better than 1 of 12 from three-point range. Yes, six straight Heat games have gone Under, but this looks to be the fourth one in a row where the oddsmakers have dropped the total. Given the likelihood of improved shooting (from both sides) in this game, the value is on the Over. 8* Over 76ers/Heat |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:00 ET): Think we’ll see better shooting here than we did in Game 1? Boston was a paltry 33.3% from the field in their series opening loss, scoring just 89 points despite making 18 threes. Their three-point shooting was actually quite decent, 36% to be exact, but somehow (at home) the C’s were 10 of 34 inside the arc on Sunday. That’s truly incredible. I know that Milwaukee has really stepped it up defensively in the postseason, but there’s just no way we don’t get improved shooting (and more points) from the home team in Game 2. The Bucks only shot 41.1% overall in Game 1 and they should improve in that regard as well tonight. All six Bucks’ playoff games have now gone Under. Oddsmakers are chasing as Game 1 of the Bucks-Bulls’ first round series had a closing total of 230.5. Now the O/U line for this game opened 15.5 points lower. Milwaukee was the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, which is something else to consider. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple double in Game 1 (24-13-12) while Jrue Holiday stepped it up with 25 points and nine rebounds. Even without Khris Middleton, I expect the Bucks to score more than they did in Game 1. Especially if Boston is w/o Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (questionable). On the Celtics side, you’ve got to expect Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will improve upon their collective 10 of 31 shooting from Game 1. For the season, that duo combined to average 48.2 PPG. The theme of this play is very much “improvement,” in case you couldn’t tell. Boston averaged 113.5 PPG in Round 1. Milwaukee scored at least 110 in each of its last four first round games. I’ll close by repeating something I said in the Game 1 analysis: the four regular season meetings between these teams all saw at least 220 total points scored. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Mavs/Suns (10:00 ET): The Mavs-Jazz series was pretty low-scoring with the two teams combining for just 203.7 points per game. But now Luka Doncic is ready to play a full series for the Mavs and they will be facing a Phoenix team that was top five in both scoring and offensive efficiency during the regular season. For the Suns, Devin Booker returned earlier than expected and they were able to close out the Pelicans in Game 6, scoring a series high 115 points. Only one time in the first round did the Suns fail to score 110. Their season average at home is 115.2 and if they hit that tonight, this looks like an easy Over. Now Dallas did just do a great job defensively against Utah, who also was one of the top offensive teams in the regular season. But the Suns aren’t as inept as the Jazz. They’ve got Chris Paul, who had a monster first round with 22.3 points and 11.3 assists per game. Note that in the close out game vs. New Orleans, Booker scored only 13 points and came off the bench. He’s now had several days off to further get over his hamstring issue and will almost certainly give the team more than he did in that last game. The Suns are also 20-8 Over following a SU win. Look for Dallas to attempt a lot of threes in this series as they had the highest 3pt rate in the first round and connected at 37%. Doncic, the NBA’s third leading scorer, played in only one of the three regular season meetings vs. Phoenix (Mavs lost all of them). That one time he played, the Mavs were up nine in the 4Q and that was with Doncic shooting just 9 of 23 for the game. All three regular season meetings also took place before the Mavs traded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. While he had a relatively poor first round series, Dinwiddie can easily exceed his 15.3 PPG average vs. Utah here. That would mean Jalen Brunson would not have to match his 27.8 PPG 1st round average. Bottom line there’s a lot of scoring options for both teams. 10* Over Mavs/Suns |
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05-02-22 | Brentford v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
8* Over Brentford/Manchester United (3:00 ET): I don’t think there’s any denying that Brentford is in much better form right now compared to their counterparts in Old Trafford. The Bees have picked up points in six of the last seven fixtures, winning five of them. They played to a goalless draw with Tottenham last week, but don’t let this side’s current position in the table (14th) fool you. Brentford is actually sixth in the league in expected points (xPts), ahead of Manchester United! It seems reasonable to expect the Bees to continue their unbeaten streak in Monday’s fixture, but I’m instead looking at the Over here. Manchester United has not won since it was announced Erik ten Hag would replace interim boss Ralph Rangnick this summer. The Red Devils lost 3-1 to Arsenal last weekend and followed that with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea midweek, thanks to the heroics of Cristiano Ronaldo. But United now faces the prospect of missing Europe altogether next season after failing to win six of their last seven fixtures. The lone win came against last place Norwich City. They currently sit sixth in the table. They’ll probably end up in the Europa or Europa Conference League, but that is far from settled now. This is Man U’s final home game, so I can’t see them rolling over. They beat Brentford 3-1 in the reverse fixture, although the Bees finished ahead on expected goals. I know the 0-0 draw with Tottenham may not inspire a lot of confidence in Brentford’s scoring ability, but they have been at 1.32 xG or better in seven straight matches. Plus Man U’s defense has gotten pretty bad down the stretch.and they are now in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. But the one shining light for United is they have scored eight goals in their last four home matches. Look for this one to sneak Over. 8* Over Brentford/Manchester United |
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05-01-22 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
9* Under Phillies/Mets (7:05 ET): There’s been a scarcity of runs in this series with the Phillies getting no-hit on Friday, but then also winning 4-1 on Saturday. That latter result was great for me as I had the road team as my 10* Game of the Month, the capper on a stupendous month overall. Now I look to start May by playing the total and I don’t know how you can’t look to the Under here. Max Scherzer is going tonight for the Mets and he’s not only 3-0 in his four starts (4-0 TSR), but has a 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. At home this season, the Mets are allowing just 2.4 runs per game and a .161 batting average. Scherzer is coming off back to back dominant performances where he went seven innings (both times) and allowed just one run on three hits combined. He had 20 strikeouts as well. Those were wins over the Giants and Cardinals. Scherzer has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this year and the lone HR surrendered came in his first start. It’s difficult for me to see the Phillies, who have collected just 10 hits over the L3 games, doing much against Scherzer as he has not lost in his last 23 starts! In 25 career starts vs. the Phillies, Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.989 WHIP. He has 201 strikeouts in 158 ⅓ innings. Like the Phils, the Mets have scored a total of just four runs in this series. While last night’s result was disappointing for them, especially coming off the no-hitter Friday, there’s no need to sweat as the Mets still have the highest win percentage in the National League. Tonight, they are facing Zach Eflin, who has somewhat struggled so far, but he was much better his last time out when he gave up just one run on two hits against Colorado. Eflin’s road numbers are skewed by the fact he also faced the Rockies at Coors Field. Eflin had another start this year where he didn’t allow any runs in four innings of work. Look for this to be a pitchers’ duel on Sunday night. 9* Under Phillies/Mets |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 219.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (3:30 ET): Memphis’ series vs. Minnesota was lower scoring than anticipated with four of the six games going Under. But there was still an average of 223.9 points per game scored between the two teams. Quite frankly, I thought the Grizzlies were a bit fortunate to advance - at least in six games - as they trailed by double digits (in the fourth quarter!) in three of their four wins. Now they are set to face a Golden State team that is looking like it should be considered the favorite to come out of the West. The Warriors averaged 118 PPG in eliminating the Nuggets in five games. I like Game 1 of this series to go Over the total. These were the two highest scoring teams in the first round, combining to average 232.7 PPG. Golden State shot 51.5% overall from the field and 42.2% from three-point range. I think the fact Memphis gave up only 109 PPG to Minnesota was a bit fortunate as the T’wolves would constantly fall apart late. Over the L5 games of the series, the T’wolves would average less than 21 PPG in the 4Q. The Warriors simply will not melt down like that. Go ahead and throw out that 28-point loss the Dubs had here in Memphis back in March. Curry, Thompson and Green all didn’t play. With its “death lineup” now in full force, Golden State is as strong as it has been all year. No player has hit more threes in the playoffs so far than has Memphis’ Desmond Bane (27). While Golden State has an excellent defensive efficiency rating, it should be pointed out that they allowed 113 and 126 points in the two road games vs. Denver. Only Game 5 of that series stayed Under. This would be the lowest total for either team so far in the playoffs. The Over is 11-1 in Memphis’ last 12 playoff games as an underdog. We’re going to see a lot of three-point attempts in this series. Golden State was third in 3PA during the regular seasons while Memphis averaged 34.5 3PA per game vs. the Warriors in the four reg season matchups. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies |
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05-01-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
8* Over Red Sox/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore snapped its losing streak (five straight) last night with a 2-1 win in 10 innings. They scored the game winning run on a throwing error, capping a comeback after being held hitless for the first six innings. The O’s didn’t score until the eighth while the Red Sox didn’t score after the first! There’s been very little offense in the series as the Red Sox won Friday’s opener by a score of 3-1. The Under is now 10-1-1 in Boston’s L12 games and 5-0 the L5 times they’ve faced Baltimore. But because of the starting pitching matchup, I’m on the Over today. Let’s start with Nick Pivetta, who Boston will send to the mound. The right-handed has an 0-4 team start record to this point and he deserves it, considering an 8.26 ERA and 1.958 WHIP. It’s been three straight starts where Pivetta failed to last five innings and Red Sox opponents ended up scoring 6+ runs in all three contests. Last time out, Pivetta surrendered only a pair of runs (on three hits) in 4 ⅔ innings. But his control issues continued with four walks, upping his season total to 13. Going back to last season, Pivetta is 0-6 over his L12 starts with a 6.61 ERA. I think even Baltimore’s lineup can get to him. The Baltimore bats better wake up here, because with Jordan Lyles pitching, the O’s figure to give up some runs themselves. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, not as bad as Pivetta, but he’s also notorious for allowing home runs. Last season saw Lyles lead the American League with 38 HRs allowed. He gave up three in his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Yankees, and it certainly doesn’t help that Lyles has a 6.10 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. The last two games may inspire little confidence in the two lineups, but today’s starting pitching matchup all but ensures we’ll be seeing a slugfest. 8* Red Sox/Orioles |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 217 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Bucks/Celtics (1:00 ET): This series pits the reigning NBA Champs (Milwaukee) against the team I feel is the favorite to come out of the East this year (Boston). By virtue of finishing second in the conference standings, the Celtics have the home court advantage. They made quick work of Brooklyn in Round 1, shockingly sweeping the Nets in what was expected to be a competitive series. As for the Bucks, they were widely expected to eliminate the Bulls and did so in five games. The two teams are obviously now anticipating a much more competitive series here in the conference semifinals. All five games in the Bucks-Bulls series stayed Under the total. The series started with a Game 1 total of 230.5 and steadily declined down to 217.5 for Game 5. Milwaukee held Chicago to 95.2 PPG on 40.4% shooting, but they won’t be able to do that against Boston, who averaged 113.5 PPG on 49.1% shooting in the first round. The Bucks averaged 109.8 PPG on 47.1% shooting. That PPG average was below what they averaged for the season (115.2), which led the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a higher scoring series. These teams met four times in the regular season. All four games saw at least 220 total points scored. The last two meetings had O/U lines of 231.5 and 227.5. Yes, scoring does go down in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting a solid value on the Game 1 total. Only one of the four Celtics-Nets games had less than 221 total points scored. Milwaukee scored 110 or more in each of the last four games vs. Chicago. I think that it’s quite reasonable to expect both teams to score 110 in this game. They combine to average 227 PPG for the year. The Over is 8-1 the L9 meetings, only one of which had a lower O/U line than what we are presented with here. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics |
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04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* Under Padres/Pirates (6:35 ET): San Diego is coming off a series in Cincinnati where all three games managed to go Over the total. The Padres averaged a healthy eight runs per game versus the Reds and the favorable schedule continues this weekend with a visit to Pittsburgh. I think you can probably make a case that the Pirates and Reds are the two worst teams in MLB right now (Nationals are pretty bad as well). Playing in the tough NL West (Dodgers & Giants both off to strong starts), San Diego needs to continue to rack up victories at the expense of the league’s bottom feeders. But I think the better value tonight is on the Under. Yu Darvish will get the starting nod for the Padres here and he’s been outstanding in three of his four starts. There was the one outlier against the Giants that we’ll pretend never happened, but the other three starts have seen Darvish allow a total of just five hits in 18 ⅔ IP and only one run to score. His last two starts came against the Dodgers and Braves, both of whom obviously field stronger lineups than the Pirates, who have scored only three runs in their last two games. In six of the L10 games, Pittsburgh has been held to two runs or fewer. They are hitting .199 over the L7 games. The question now becomes - can Pittsburgh pitching keep San Diego hitting in check? Well, I think the Padres are due to regress a bit at the plate, considering they are bottom five in the NL in both expected batting average and expected slugging. The task falls on Zach Thompson, who has admittedly not been good in his L2 starts, but he was charged with five unearned runs his last time out. His ERA of 10.80 is obviously only going to get better. San Diego is only hitting .229 the L7 games, so it’s been lucky to average 5.0 rpg over the same stretch. 8* Under Padres/Pirates |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 214 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Under Suns/Pelicans (7:30 ET): Still without Devin Booker, top seed Phoenix looks to close out New Orleans on Thursday. The Suns got a career playoff-high 31 points from Mikal Bridges in the Game 5 victory, which snapped a three-game run for the Over in the series. The final score was 112-97 and obviously had as much to do with what the Suns accomplished at the defensive end. They held CJ McCollum, the Pelicans’ leading scorer, to just 7 of 22 shooting. With Bridges highly unlikely to match his production from Tuesday, look for Game 6 to stay Under as well. Chris Paul also had a nice bounce back in Game 5, scoring 22 points and dishing out 11 assists. Only Magic Johnson and LeBron James have more 20-10 (points-assists) games in NBA playoff history than Paul’s 31. But he had just four points the last time the teams played in New Orleans and the team finished with just 103. Phoenix was quite dreadful from three-point range in the two games here, making only 11 of 53 attempts. They really miss Booker in that regard. Now there are reports that Booker may return tonight. But I wouldn’t expect him to be a dominant player in his first game back. With Paul and Bridges also likely to regress, that means less points than usual from Phoenix, who is 7-3 Under its L10 games. New Orleans might be slightly better on offense than they were in Game 5, but I’m also not expecting them to get to the free throw line as much. The L2 games have seen them get 77 attempts. 8* Under Suns/Pelicans |
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04-27-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Bucks (7:30 ET): Of all the first round series, East or West, this is the one where I was most confident in who the winner would be. Defending champion Milwaukee came in as huge favorites and though they dropped Game 2 here at home (114-110), they made short work of the Bulls in Chicago, winning the two games by a combined 54 points. That was even without Khris Middleton, who remains out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury in Game 2. The odds are high that the Bucks finish this series Wednesday night at home and honestly I’m a little leery of laying this many points. But I do see value on the Game 5 total. The previous four games have all stayed Under. But we’re now a long way from the Game 1 total, which closed at 230.5. While Chicago has been held to 95 points or less in each of its three losses, I do see them scoring more here with the season hanging in the balance. Game 4 just barely stayed Under and that was with the Bulls shooting just 38.9% overall and 9 of 36 from behind the arc. DeRozan, Vucevic & LaVine were a combined 3 of 17 from downtown. I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to improve upon those percentages here tonight. They are 13-5 Over this season after being held to 100 or less this season. But the Bulls’ problem is going to be on the defensive end. Milwaukee has scored 110 or more in three straight, but Game 4 marked the first time they exceeded their season average of 115.2 PPG (which led the Eastern Conference). They’ve made 46 threes over the L3 games and shot 51% from long range in Game 4. Alex Caruso left the last game with a concussion and is questionable for Game 5. Back in the regular season, we saw how bad the Bulls were defensively when both Caruso and Lonzo Ball (season over) were out. The Bucks are 20-8 Over L28 as home favorites. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks |
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04-26-22 | Real Madrid v. Manchester City OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
analysis 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): In the first semifinal of this year’s Champions League, we’ve got the team that will win La Liga (Real Madrid) against the current leaders of the Premier League (Manchester City). It should be a good one. In the quarterfinals, Man City ousted last year’s La Liga Champions (Atletico Madrid), needing just a single goal to do so. It will certainly take more than that to defeat this year’s top team from the Spanish flight as Real Madrid comes in having delivered thrilling come from behind victories over PSG and Chelsea here in the knockout stage. Man City is undefeated here at the Etihad in Champions League play, going all the way back to September of 2018. So the EPL leaders will be confident heading into this first leg. However, they were not all that impressive against Atletico and had to survive a second half onslaught in the second leg just to advance. The good news is that the Citizens have scored 13 goals in their five home matches so far in this tournament. I’m expecting a lot more offense from them than what we saw in the quarterfinals. In three fixtures since, they’ve found the back of the net a total of 10 times, including a 5-1 win over Watford this past weekend. Real Madrid had to come from behind in the second leg vs. PSG to advance out of the Round of 16, then survived an early Chelsea barrage in the second leg of the quarterfinals. Los Blancos were down on aggregate in both ties and honestly are probably lucky to be here. However, with the exception of the 4-0 thumping they took from Barcelona, Real has scored multiple goals in every match since the start of March. They put three on the board last Wednesday vs. Osasuna and should have had more, but missed a pair of penalties. Man City’s backline is dealing with multiple absences heading into this one and Real’s Karim Benzema has seven goals in the last four UCL matches. 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City |
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04-25-22 | Leeds United v. Crystal Palace OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace (3:00 ET): Crystal Palace has been held without a goal in each of its last two fixtures, one of those in the FA Cup (2-0 semifinal loss to Chelsea) and then a 1-0 loss to Newcastle here in the Premier League last week. The Eagles ought to be a lot higher in the EPL table; at least based on their YTD goal differential being better than the five teams directly ahead of them and the fact they are ninth in xPts (expected points). While I’m not confident enough in CP to bet them to win today, I do certainly anticipate they’ll break their scoreless streak in this fixture. Leeds United is still fighting to fend off relegation, though another win and you’ve got to think they’re probably safe for next season. Unlike Crystal Palace (+2 GD), Leeds has not been particularly impressive in several underlying metrics (they have the EPL’s third worst GD), so I can’t say that they’re unfortunate to be in the position they are currently in. Fighting for survival has brought improved form, however. The Whites are unbeaten in their last four competitions and just put three goals on the board last week in a clean sheet victory over hapless Watford. They’ve scored nine goals in the four-match unbeaten run, scoring 2+ in three of the fixtures. Crystal Palace is definitely a stronger side here at Selhurst Park where they haven’t conceded a single goal in the L3 matches. They’ve also scored 25 goals in their 16 matches here this season. The Eagles are the strongest attacking team that Leeds will have faced in some time. Expect goals here as Leeds’ so- called “defensive improvement” has a lot to do with whom they’ve faced recently, namely four of the other bottom seven sides, including the bottom two. 10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace |
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04-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Burnley OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Wolves/Burnley (9:00 AM ET): In all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, there isn’t a side that has been more fortunate when it comes to conceding goals this season than Wolverhampton. The Wolves have conceded only 28 times, fourth fewest in the Premier League. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 44.36, which would rank 10th. To put that kind of overachieving in its proper perspective, there are only two other sides in the “Big 4” to have a positive difference of more than nine between their xGA and actual goals allowed. (Those would be Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld of the Bundesliga). The Wolves are still chasing down a spot in the Europa Conference League. They are three points behind West Ham, but have a match in hand as a result of last week’s fixture vs. Man City getting postponed (because Man City was competing in the FA Cup). A 1-0 loss to Newcastle did the Wolves no favors two weeks ago. But before that, they’d found the back of the net twice against both Aston Villa and Leeds United. Though Burnley isn’t even close to having the worst defensive record in the EPL, you’ve got to like Wolverhampton’s chances of getting on the scoresheet in this one as Burnley had conceded a goal in eight straight matches prior to last week’s 2-0 clean sheet over Southampton. That win inched Burnley closer to safety as they desperately try to escape the relegation zone. They’ll enter Sunday 18th in the table, one point behind Everton, who must face Liverpool today. So an opportunity is there for the Clarets to move up. Given what I said earlier about Wolverhampton, I expect Burnley will get on the scoresheet here. Feeling that both sides will score in this fixture makes the Over an obvious call. 10* Over Wolves/Burnley |
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04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Mavs/Jazz (4:30 ET): With the potential for Luka Doncic’s return on Saturday, I’m surprised this total isn’t higher. Both Games 2 and 3 went Over the total, the latter by a significant margin (36.5 points!) Now Utah shot 56.5% in Game 3 (and still lost!), a clip we probably can’t expect them to match this afternoon. But I do expect the host Jazz to be more efficient from three-point range where they were just 9 of 28 on Thursday. This is a team that averages 15 made threes per game at home where they average 116.8 PPG. Not only is Utah the league’s third highest scoring home team, don’t forget they finished the regular season tied for the league lead (with Atlanta) in offensive efficiency. I had Dallas plus the points in Game 3 and the cover was never really in doubt as they raced out to a 68-51 halftime lead. Once again, Jalen Brunson led the way, this time with 31 points. That followed a career-high 41 points in Game 2. He’s averaging 32 PPG for the series, clearly filling the void left by Doncic’s absence. While I don’t think the Mavs will score 126 again, even if Doncic returns, hitting their season average of 108.1 PPG is certainly realistic and probably all that we need. The Mavs are 6-2 Over their last 8 games. Utah is on a 16-5 Over run in playoff action the last three seasons, including 12-3 in the first round. They are 3-0 to the Over when trailing in a series. Today is certainly shaping up to be a “must-win” for the Jazz as a loss means they head back to Dallas down three games to one. Things were looking up when they temporarily “stole” home court advantage by winning Game 1, but B2B outright losses have changed things in a hurry. Jazz home games have averaged 224.2 points this season. So, once again, I say this number looks low. Both teams had a 40-point quarter on Thursday. 10* Over Mavs/Jazz |
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04-22-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Pelicans (9:30 ET): Both of last year’s NBA Finalists (Bucks & Suns) have had a trying 48 hours, not only losing Game 2 of their respective series, but also losing a key player in the process. For Phoenix, that key player is Devin Booker, who has a “Grade 1” hamstring injury. Booker leads his team with 26.8 points per game, so to say his injury is significant is no understatement. Now the Suns may very well have enough talent on hand to still get by the 8th seeded Pelicans, but expect Game 3 of this series to be low-scoring, along the lines of Game 1. Take the Under here. Game 2 was a wild affair with New Orleans coming from behind to win 125-114 as 9.5-point underdogs. Now Phoenix was behind, by three points, when Booker left the game. But considering Booker poured in 31 points himself in the first half, then the Suns could only manage 53 as a team in the entire second half, his absence was absolutely felt. Honestly, the bigger issue for the top seed may have been their transition defense. "That was probably, for us, the worst we have ever looked in transition since I have been here," coach Monty Williams said. "For that to happen in a playoff game was a bit unsettling for everybody. Now I do not expect New Orleans to shoot 54.8% from the field again like they did in Game 2. They were also 17 of 30 from three-point range, an absurd 56.7%. There’s no way they are matching those numbers tonight, even though the game is at home. Brandon Ingram was 13 of 21 shooting overall. He was perfect on threes and finished with 37-11-9. Can’t see him replicating that. Then you have the fact the Suns can’t possibly replace Booker’s production as he hit seven threes in the first half alone Wednesday. The Suns are 8-1 Under following a double digit loss this season. 10* Under Suns/Pelicans |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
9* Under Bucks/Bulls (8:30 ET): This is my first foray into this series, which has taken a bit of a dramatic turn in the last 48 hours. Of all the first round series in the Eastern Conference, this was the one where projecting a winner seemed to be the most obvious (and that was reaffirmed by the odds), however, not only did Milwaukee lose Game 2 at home Weds night (114-110 as a 10-point favorite), but they are now going to be without Khris Middleton for at least two weeks, which is a huge loss. Both games in Milwaukee did stay Under and now things move to Chicago. I think the Under is likely to hit again. Middleton is the Bucks’ second leading scorer this season (20.1 PPG), obviously trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. He had averaged just 14.5 points in the first two games of this series, but is obviously going to be missed moving forward. Middleton wasn’t the only Bucks player to leave Game 2 with an injury; Bobby Portis had to exit with an eye injury, though it’s expected he will play tonight. So far, the Bucks have averaged just 101.5 PPG in this series (on 43.1% shooting), well below their regular season average. It doesn’t help that they are only shooting 65% from the free throw line. Chicago’s “big three” of DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine combined to shoot 21 of 71 (29.6%) in Game 1, but then rebounded to 33 of 62 (53.2%) in Game 2, led by DeRozan’s 41 points. Expect them to finish somewhere “in the middle” for Game 3. I can’t see the Bulls scoring 63 points in the first half again, like they did Wednesday. Nor do I see them shooting 48% from three-point range again. All season long, Bulls’ division games have been lower scoring than non-division games, averaging just 208 PPG. The Under is 14-4 in division games. Before the Game 2 win, they’d faced Milwaukee five times (lost all five) and averaged just 98.4 PPG. 9* Under Bucks/Bulls |
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04-20-22 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 228 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Nets/Celtics (7:05 ET): It was a Game 1 thriller on Sunday as the Celtics, after blowing a double digit lead, got the 115-114 win on a Jayson Tatum layup as time expired. As exciting as that finish was, I was a little “down in the dumps” due to the fact I was holding an Under ticket, which was a loser at 224.5. Oddsmakers have bumped the number up for Game 2 though and I’m seeing lots of value on the same bet (Under) as this is a Boston team that ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense during the regular season. I do not believe Brooklyn is going to shoot 53.8% again like they did in Game 1. Kyrie Irving seemingly could not miss down the stretch for the Nets as he ended up with 39 points on 12/20 shooting from the field and 9/9 from the free throw line. Kevin Durant had “only” 23 points as he shot 9/24 overall, including 1 of 5 from three-point range. Certainly, the combo of Irving and Durant is capable of producing 60+ points every night. But only two other Nets finished Game 1 in double figures and both were reserves (Claxton and Dragic). Meanwhile, four Boston starters (led by Tatum’s 31) scored 20 or more points, but the rest of the team combined for a paltry 21 points. I’m well aware that the Over is now 5-0 in the season series between the Nets & Celtics. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record” (from previous analysis), the playoffs are most certainly a “different animal.” There’s a good chance this could close as the highest O/U line of any of the six times the teams have met and three of the previous five closed with an O/U line of 217 pts or lower. I think that the Celtics are also due for some offensive regression (they’ve averaged 127.2 pts their L5 games) and the Under is 9-3 this season when they play with exactly two days rest. Game 2 will be lower scoring than Game 1. 10* Under Nets/Celtics |
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04-20-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Manchester City UNDER 3 | Top | 0-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Well, for the first time in a LONG time, Man City is NOT atop the Premier League table. Liverpool’s 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United put the Reds (I had ‘em) in first place by a single point. But now the Citizens have their opportunity to regain first place as they welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Etihad Stadium on Wednesday. They are desperate to end a three-match winless streak across all competitions, but keep in mind that Brighton has been a “tough out” all season and comes in having beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham (two top five teams) the L2 weeks. The schedule seems to be taking its toll on Pep Guardiola’s side as he reported that Man City staff had to treat 71 injuries in the last week! Over the L10 days, the Citizens have had to face Liverpool twice, drawing them in league play (2-2) and then losing 3-2 in the FA Cup semifinals. In between, they played to a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid, which allowed them to advance to the Champions League semis. All is not lost though as a Premier League/Champions League double would be quite the accomplishment. Facing a Brighton club that has scored a total of just three goals in its last five matches should make things easier on the back end. It’s been four years since Brighton won three straight on the bounce in Premier League action and their win streak is likely to end here. They’ve lost eight of their last nine fixtures with Man City, including 4-1 in the reverse earlier this season. But I look for the rematch to be a low-scoring, cagey affair as Man City can still claim to have conceded the fewest number of goals (20) this Premier League season while Brighton has only found the back of the net 29 times, third fewest, ahead of only Burnley and Norwich City. 8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City |
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04-19-22 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 218 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Heat (7:35 ET): I went with the Over in Game 1 of this series, which did not hit due to Atlanta only scoring 91 points on 38.7% shooting. The team was just 10 of 36 on three-pointers with Trae Young’s 0 for 7 sticking out like a sore thumb. You may recall Young having similar struggles (1 for 7 on 3PA) in the play-in game vs. Charlotte, only to bounce back the next game (vs. Cleveland) and score 38 points. He’s only 5 for 25 from behind the arc in the L3 games, so I’m sensing Young regaining his “touch” tonight and for the Hawks to come closer to their season average of 113.8 points per game. This was the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season! Miami didn’t really have much trouble making shots in Game 1 as they finished at 52.4% overall, including 18 of 38 from three-point range. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, this Heat team has a variety of scoring options and on Sunday, it turned out to be Duncan Robinson leading the way as he went 8 of 9 from three-point range for a team-high 27 points. Robinson probably won’t be repeating that performance tonight, but the good news is the Heat have enough options to fill the void left by Robinson regression. Also, Atlanta is not a good defensive team; they are 26th in efficiency, which is the lowest ranking of any of the 16 playoff teams. I’m very surprised to see that the Hawks have gone Under nine straight times as underdogs. Look for that trend to end here though as they’ll easily top their Game 1 point total while very likely still giving up a similar number. Miami has shot better than 50% from the field in five of its last six games, never scoring fewer than 111 points in that stretch. Young’s point total (8) from Game 1 marked a season-low. It was just the sixth time that he scored 15 pts or less this season. He’s averaged 31.2 PPG after the previous five times. 10* Over Hawks/Heat |
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04-18-22 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Raptors/76ers (7:30 ET): It wasn’t Joel Embiid or James Harden leading the way for the 76ers in Game 1. It was Tyrese Maxey, who had 38 points in a breakout performance. Now Maxey didn’t do it all himself as it was a huge offensive night with four players scoring 19+ and the team finishing with 131 points on 51.2% shooting, including 16 of 32 from three-point range. I can’t imagine we’ll see that kind of shooting again from Philadelphia, who is overdue for some offensive regression after averaging 125.4 points over their last five games (5-0 Over). The Sixers also made 29 free throws in Game 1, which is more than usual. Meanwhile, Game 1 was a largely miserable experience for Toronto, who are now likely to be without Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young for Game 2. Now the team did shoot 48.8% on Saturday and went 12 of 30 from behind the arc. That’s better than average for the Raptors. Trent, dealing with a non-COVID illness, was 2 for 11 in Game 1. Barnes and Young’s absences will be felt, however. Clearly though, if the Raptors are to have any chances of evening up this series, it has to come on the defensive end. Game 1 was just the third time all season that they allowed 130+ points. I’m looking for worse all-around shooting in Game 2 - from both teams. The last two times they have played, three-point shooting has been through the roof. That just can’t continue. Toronto’s only chance here is to slow the game down. Both teams ranked in the bottom six in tempo during the regular season. They also both ranked just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ previous six road games (before Game 1) had all stayed Under and the Under is also 5-2 the last seven times that they have been off a loss. During the regular season, the teams combined to average 36 made free throws per game. They made 48 in Game 1. 10* Under Raptors/76ers |
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04-17-22 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Nets/Celtics (3:30 ET): Unders certainly “ruled the day” in the NBA’s “Play-In Tournament,” cashing in all six games. Here we’ve got a matchup of division foes, Brooklyn and Boston, who very well could be considered the top two favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. The Nets are the seven seed, far lower than expected, but any team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving must be considered dangerous. They easily extinguished Cleveland in the play-in round, jumping out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter and winning 115-108. But they did not cover the spread. Boston ended up with the best net efficiency and point differential among Eastern Conference teams at the end of the regular season. They are the highest rated team, in my own power rankings, in the East heading into the postseason. They ended up #2 overall in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG allowed). Now this team was a bit of a scoring juggernaut down the stretch, averaging 129.8 points over its final five regular season games and going Over in 9 of the last 11. But I can’t see that continuing now that it’s playoff-time. We’ve seen similar trends so far with the play-in teams that ended the regular season in high scoring fashion. Over the last seven games, the only time Brooklyn went Over was the regular season finale against an Indiana team that is quite poor defensively. They are 36-19 Under this season when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. I just can’t see the Nets shooting as well here as they have in their last two games (64.2% vs. IND and 53.6% vs. CLE). The Celtics are allowing a 43.5 FG% for the year. Yes, I know all four regular season meetings did go Over the total. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record,” the playoffs are a different animal. 10* Under Nets/Celtics |
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04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 91-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
8* Over Hawks/Heat (1:00 ET): Overs made a bit of a “comeback” in the NBA playoffs on Saturday, cashing in three of the four games. That was after the first seven playoff games all stayed Under. I expect the Over “comeback” to continue in this game as division rivals Atlanta & Miami open their best of seven series. The Hawks had to win two “do or die” games just to get to this point, 132-103 over Charlotte (at home) and then 107-101 at Cleveland. I cashed the Under on both of those games. But with a lower total on this game, I’m expecting a different result. Despite an off-shooting night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range, Atlanta still put together a huge offensive performance against Charlotte. Of course, that was at home. Collectively, they didn’t shoot very well from three against Cleveland, making only 9 of 31 attempts. But this time Young rescued them with a 38-point performance. I obviously expect better three-point shooting Sunday from the Hawks. This is a high-scoring team (114.1 PPG) that is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency! I just can’t see them going Under for a ninth straight time as underdogs. Miami is the top seed in the East, boasting tremendous depth and a variety of scorers. They led the NBA in three-point shooting during the regular season (37.9%) and in four games vs. Atlanta this season, the Heat shot better than 50% overall. The Hawks aren’t a very good defensive team (they allow 112.8 PPG on the road) and after holding Charlotte/Cleveland to an average of 102 PPG, I think there’s some natural regression at that end of the floor. Four of the Heat’s last five regular season games went Over. 8* Over Hawks/Heat |
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04-16-22 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
9* Under Raptors/76ers (6:05 ET): Taking the full advantage of both Chicago & Cleveland falling apart down the stretch, Toronto moved up into fifth place in the East and will now face a Philadelphia team they were victorious against three times in four regular season meetings. The Raptors have lost only four times since March 7th and one of those came in the utterly meaningless regular season finale. Let it be known the Raptors beat the 76ers in both meetings after the latter acquired James Harden. So the team from “North of the Border” certainly seems like a “live dog” in Game 1. But I’m not sure they’re going to score a ton of points on Saturday. Philadelphia's last four regular season games all went Over, one of them being a 119-114 loss in Toronto. The total here is lower, somewhat curiously, but I seriously doubt we’ll see the teams shoot as well from three-point range here as they did in that last matchup when they combined to make nearly 50 percent from behind the arc. Two of the Sixers’ last four games saw them top 130 points, but both of those were against the horrendous Pacers. It’s playoff time, and even with Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are due for a bit of a scoring decline. Both teams rank just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency and are bottom six in pace. That combo leads me to believe that Game 1 will be lower scoring than expected. Both teams scored less this season when matched up with division opponents. The last time they met here in Philly, which was less than a month ago, the final score was 93-88. Harden has averaged just 15.0 PPG against the Raptors as a member of the Sixers. Toronto is 19-7 Under its L26 road games. 9* Under Raptors/76ers |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 216 | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
8* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:05 ET): I hit side and total when the Clippers lost 109-104 in Minnesota on Tuesday. The Under was never really in doubt as the O/U line closed at 231. The Clippers thought they were on their way to the playoffs when they were up 10 in the fourth quarter and Karl Anthony-Towns fouled out. But it was not to be as they finished with just 20 points in the 4Q. As I said in the previous writeup, they were due for an “off-night” offensively after closing the regular season with five straight wins where they averaged 128 PPG. I think that carries over to tonight. New Orleans was able to run away from San Antonio early and hold on for a 113-103 win Wednesday. That was my only loss in the play-in round as I took the Spurs plus the points. That play had more to do with what I thought was an underrated Spurs’ side. Tip your cap to the Pelicans for their performance, but I don’t think the team’s three leading scorers (McCollum, Ingram, Valanciunas) will be as efficient as they were in the last game when they combined to shoot 32 of 56 from the field (57.1%) and score 81 points. Note the rest of the team scored just 32 points. On the road, role players contribute less and the Under is 26-15 in Pelicans’ away games this season. The Under has cashed in four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams, both of whom surprisingly ranked OUTSIDE the top 10 in the Western Conference in points per game. Looking back to the regular season, the two games here in Los Angeles were higher scoring than the two in New Orleans, but the Clips were only able to top 104 pts against the Pelicans once and that was a relatively meaningless affair late in the year. The Pelicans will NOT shoot 54% again (like they did vs. SA) as the Clips have held their L5 opponents to 40.7% shooting and 100.8 PPG. 8* Under Pelicans/Clippers |
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04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 223.5 | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Home teams won each of the first four play-in games, but bettors sure don’t seem to like Cleveland’s chances here. That’s probably because, in addition to a poor finish to the regular season, the Cavaliers fell into an early 20-point hole against the Nets (by the end of the first quarter) and never really recovered on Tuesday. But they did cover the spread in that game (only road team to cover this week) and they have an added day of preparation here, plus the home court edge. There’s also the possibility that All-Star Jarrett Allen returns, which would be significant for the Cavs. Atlanta blew out Charlotte 132-103 in their first play-in matchup, but unlike Cleveland, the Hawks have to win twice to make the playoffs. The Hawks scored 132 despite an off-night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range. That has to be terrifying for a Cleveland team that let Young, who averaged 32.5 PPG in the four regular season meetings. But while Young’s overall shooting is bound to improve (compared to Wednesday), I don’t think you can expect the Hawks’ supporting cast to shoot as well as they did Wednesday now that they’re on the road. Atlanta is not a particularly good road team (16-25 SU) and sees its scoring average dip to 111.2 PPG. They go from facing a Hornets team that was dead last in the East in scoring defense to a Cleveland team that is top five in the NBA in scoring defense. The Under is 25-15-1 in Cavs’ home games this season with them allowing just 103.7 PPG. Allen’s return (he is questionable) would be huge at the defensive end. Home teams aren’t the only thing that have been perfect so far in the play-in round; Unders are 4-0 as well. Atlanta did a good job defensively Weds against a Charlotte team that is 4th in the league in scoring. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks UNDER 236 | Top | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
9* Under Hornets/Hawks (7:05 ET): A win here does not guarantee either the Hornets or Hawks a playoff opportunity, rather the winner will head to Cleveland Friday for a game to determine the East’s 8-seed. Charlotte is back in the play-in tournament for a second straight year. Last year, they lost in this 9-10 game, 144-117 to Indiana, ending their season. For Atlanta, being here is a drop from last year when they entered the playoffs as a 5-seed and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a VERY high total for two teams familiar with one another and I’m playing the Under. Hornets’ games - on average - are the highest scoring in the entire NBA. They average 230.2 PPG, but even that wouldn’t be enough to go Over this number. During the regular season, the Hornets went Over 41 times and Under 41 times. But when facing a team with a winning record (Atlanta is 43-39 SU), the Under is 27-13. I don’t expect Charlotte to shoot as well as they did over the L5 regular season games (53.5%) nor do I believe they’ll allow Atlanta to shoot 50.9%, which was the FG% allowed by the Hornets to those same L5 opponents. Three of the four regular season meetings between the Hawks & Hornets stayed Under, including the most recent one (a 116-106 Charlotte win). Only once did these Southeast Division rivals combine for more than 222 points in the regular season. Similar to Charlotte, Atlanta is 12-2 Under its last 14 games vs. teams with winning records. Do the Hawks score a lot at home? Yes. But their home games still only average 228.4 PPG. In the playoffs, scoring goes down. 9* Under Hornets/Hawks |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves UNDER 230.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
8* Under Clippers/T’wolves (9:30 ET): Getting this game at home is big for Minnesota, but also for the Under. T’wolves’ games are simply far lower scoring at home than on the road. While their road games average a somewhat stunning 236.6 points per game, at home that number drops down to 221.8. Most of that scoring decline can be traced to the team’s improved play at the defensive end. They allow just 108.4 PPG at home, nearly 10 PPG less than what they allow on the road. They also allow 5.0 PPG less. So I’m going with the Under Tuesday. The Clippers have seen a huge uptick in their scoring over the last five games, all of which they won. They’ve averaged 128 PPG during the win streak, which began with a stunning 153-point effort against the Bucks. Shockingly, that was a game where both teams rested star players. Most of the Clippers’ games down the stretch lacked “playoff intensity” as the opponent was either a non-contender (Sacramento, OKC) or had nothing to play for (Phoenix). If this O/U line holds, it will be just the second time all season that a Clippers’ game closes with a 230+ point total. So I think there’s value in the Under. Bottom line: the Clippers are due for an “off-night” at the offensive end and I’ve already gone through the huge difference in scoring between Minnesota home and road games. The T’wolves last five opponents have combined to shoot 53.4%, but that’s not going to hold here as they allow a FG% of just 43.7% at home for the year. Keep an eye on the status of PG Russell (illness), obviously. 8* Under Clippers/T’wolves |