Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-21 | Andrei Arlovski v. Chase Sherman OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Arlovski/Sherman (11:15 ET): Andre Arlovski, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, is about to step inside the Octagon for a 35th time. That’s the most ever for a heavyweight. He’s 19-14-1 for the promotion and 30-20 all-time. He will face Chase Sherman Saturday. Sherman is 15-6 in his MMA career, including 3-5 for the UFC. This fight is scheduled for three rounds and I believe is likely to head to the cards. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. Arlovski was NOT the originally scheduled opponent for Sherman here. He stepped in as a late replacement when Parker Porter was forced to withdraw (undisclosed reasons) earlier this month. Arlovski is coming off a second round loss to Tom Aspinall in February when he was choked out. But prior to that, he’d won three of four fights, all three wins coming via decision. His game plan here will likely be slow-paced striking to hopefully earn another judge’s decision. While Sherman does not have the best UFC record, he does come into this fight riding a four-fight win streak. All four wins have come via TKO. Three of those wins occurred outside the UFC, but he made a successful return to the promotion last May when he defeated Isaac Villanueva in the second round. The vast majority of Sherman’s fights have not gone to the cards, but this is a tricky matchup against a veteran he was not originally preparing to fight. 10* Over Arlovski/Sherman |
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04-17-21 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Giants/Marlins (6:10 ET): Miami kicked off this series with a 4-1 win Friday. That’s far fewer total runs than what we saw in their previous series (against Atlanta) where the four games averaged 13.5 rpg. The Marlins won three of them, including two in extra innings. The offense has been far less spectacular at home this season, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they begin to “break out.” Same for the Giants, who are now 10-1 Under their L11 games. Nine of those 11 games have seen five or fewer totals runs scored. Seems unsustainable? Starting today for the Marlins will be Sandy Alcantara. The Under is 3-0 in his 2021 starts and 7-1 his last eight starts going back to the end of last season. So again, I’m really “bucking” the trends here. But let it be known that Alcantara has allowed three runs each of his last two starts and he had a season-high three walks his last time out. He’s also long overdue for some run support after the Marlins have scored just seven total runs in his three starts this year. The Giants’ offense is near the bottom of the league right now with just 3.4 runs per game. They had even less than that last night as there were only three hits outside of Mike Yastrzemski’sdouble and triple. But I think they’ll get going tonight. As for starter Aaron Sanchez, it’s been a long road back to relevancy. After missing all of 2020 and a 5.89 ERA in ‘19, I’m not sold on his start to this season, which has seen him give up just three runs in 10 IP. These teams are DUE for an Over. This is a low number. It’s that simple. 10* Over Giants/Marlins |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG. Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of. While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks |
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04-14-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Rockies/Dodgers (10:05 ET): Colorado, who has gone Under in each of its last six games, was shut out 7-0 last night by Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers. It was the Rockies’ second straight shutout loss as they were also blanked 4-0 by the Giants on Monday. They’ve now lost four in a row, all on the road, and scored a grand total of four runs in those games. While I can’t say “I like their chances” tonight in LA, I do think they’ll be able to put at least a few runs on the board and that should be enough to send this Over. The Dodgers have won four in a row and three of those have come via shutout! As anticipated, this is looking like a dominant ballclub as they’re now 9-2 on the season and one of those losses came Opening Day in Colorado. Last night matched their biggest margin of victory of the season as Bauer allowed only one hit over seven innings. The offense leads MLB in team batting average (.285) and is putting up nearly six runs per game. Dustin May will start tonight’s game for the Dodgers, who look to move to 5-0 at home. May threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball in his first start, which was at Oakland. Yet that game ended up being a 10-3 final (in the Dodgers’ favor). Jon Gray, who starts for the Rockies tonight, took a no-hitter into the 7th inning his last time out. But he has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers, especially here at Chavez Ravine where he’s 1-5 w/ a 6.84 ERA in six career starts. 10* Over Rockies/Dodgers |
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04-14-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5 | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This is a pretty important game for these teams, both of which are looking to move up the Western Conference standings and avoid the play-in scenario for this year’s playoffs. Remember that a team has to finish 6th (or better) to avoid the play-in. I give both of these teams a good shot at moving past Portland (who currently occupies 6th place), Dallas moreso. But the Mavericks come into tonight as losers of two straight while Memphis is off a 101-90 win over Chicago. The Under is 7-1 in Dallas’ past eight games. They scored only 95 points in a home loss to Philadelphia on Monday where they shot only 42.2% from the field. They were just 9 of 36 from three-point range. This team’s offensive efficiency is way down compared to last season when they led the league in that department. Currently, they are 10th in offensive efficiency. On the bright side, they did defeat Memphis 102-92 in the season’s first meeting as they held the Grizzlies to 6 of 31 shooting from three-point range. Going back to last year, the Grizz have averaged just 94 points the L2 times they have faced the Mavs. Their defense had been poor in recent losses to the Knicks and Pacers, however one of those games (Knicks) did go to OT. The defense improved tremendously vs. Chicago Monday night as they allowed 41.9% shooting including 5 of 31 from three-point range. The Under is 33-11 in Memphis’ last 44 home games including 5-0 the L5 when they are the dog. 8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies |
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04-14-21 | Magic v. Bulls UNDER 220.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Orlando has really sunk into the abyss as they’re on a six-game losing streak which has seen them get beat by double digits five times and by 20+ points three times. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, there are major issues defensively as this six-game skid has seen them allow an average of 123.7 points per game. But for purposes of this play, be more focused on the fact that they’ve failed to crack 100 themselves three different times during the same stretch. That includes both of the last two games. Chicago is just trying to get into the playoffs. They currently occupy the last spot for the Play-In Tournament as they are in 10th place, 1.5 games ahead of a Toronto team that I happen to think is better than they are. Despite bolstering their rotation at the trade deadline, the Bulls have failed to “pick up the pace” and come into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak. They’ve lost 9 of 12 overall. Now the majority of those losses have come on the road. This is the first of three straight winnable home games on the upcoming schedule, but the problem is they are only 10-16 SU at home this season. The Bulls are also coming off a loss in which they failed to score 100 points. They shot 5 of 31 from three-point range in a 101-90 setback at Memphis Monday night. While they figure to shoot better than that here, they only average 109.7 PPG at home. Of course, that might be enough as Orlando averages just 102.2 PPG on the road (29th in the league). These teams played earlier in the season and it was 118-92 in Orlando and that was with the Bulls (who won) shooting better than 50% (including 15 of 30 from 3-pt range). They won’t shoot that well here. 10* Under Magic/Bulls |
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04-12-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
8* Under Nuggets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Thanks to a disastrous fourth quarter (in which they scored only EIGHT points), the Nuggets saw their eight-game win streak come to an end Sunday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Denver actually led by eight going into the 4th, but then things completely fell apart as Boston scored 40 of the game’s final 48 points. The Nuggets finished with a 36.4 FG% including 8 of 34 from three-point range as they played for the fourth straight time w/o PG Jamal Murray (who is listed as questionable for tonight). We know Golden State is going to be short-handed coming into this game as they are without Kelly Oubre Jr and James Wiseman, their third and fourth leading scorers. This puts even more pressure on Steph Curry, who has scored 32+ in each of the L6 games, but the Warriors are just 3-3 SU in that stretch. The Dubs are only 21st in offensive efficiency, a far cry from their “heyday,” so if they are to “get it done” here, it’ll have to be via the defensive end (they are 8th in efficiency there). Two short-handed teams, one playing in the second night of a back to back, seems like a recipe for an Under to me. Denver’s offensive efficiency drops noticeably without Murray in the lineup. They won’t have a quarter as bad as the fourth yesterday, but the Under is 6-1 in the Nuggets’ last seven road games. Golden State has little offensive firepower beyond Curry and probably won’t match the 53.8% shooting we saw from them when they defeated the inept Rockets on Saturday. 8* Under Nuggets/Warriors |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Nationals/Cardinals (7:45 ET): Still reeling from a COVID-19 outbreak, the short-handed Nationals have dropped five in a row while being shutout in three of the last four losses. It should be mentioned that two of those shutouts were against the Dodgers, who have tremendous pitching staff. In the three games where they were NOT blanked this season, the Nats put up at least five runs. So there have been some games where the offense has done just fine, despite the missing players. St. Louis just gave up nine runs both Saturday and Sunday. That was after allowing just four runs total the previous four games. But the first series of the year saw them hit hard as they allowed 27 runs in three games to the Reds. So, outside of Miami, everyone is getting to the Cards’ pitching thus far. Through nine games, the bullpen has actually worked more innings than the starting rotation, which is not a good sign. Starting today for the Cards will be John Gant, who allowed only an unearned run when he faced the Marlins last Tuesday. That was his 1st start since 2018. While he allowed only the one run, he did walk three batters and needed 82 pitches to record 12 outs. My view is that the Washington hitters will break out of their slump today against Gant. But starting Erick Fedde is a problem for the Nationals as he allowed six runs in 1 ⅔ innings his first time out. 10* Over Nationals/Cardinals |
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04-11-21 | Heat v. Blazers OVER 221.5 | Top | 107-98 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland’s game last night (w/ Detroit), a 118-103 win, was the fourth Under for the team in its last five games. But the Blazers remain a very suspect team defensively (29th in number of points per possession allowed) and here they are matched up with a Miami team that’s gone Over in each of its last four games. Granted, not all of those Heat totals were very high. But neither in this one, especially if you look at it from Portland’s perspective. Number is too low. Go Over tonight. Miami has won five of six to move into the middle of the playoff pack in the Eastern Conference. Right now they are in 6th place, just one-half game behind Charlotte and Atlanta, who are tied for fourth. So this is an important game. When they hosted Portland last month, the Heat lost by a score of 125-122. That game saw them shoot 56% from the field and still LOSE. The teams combined to go 36 of 80 from three-point range, which they probably won’t do again. But remember we don’t need the game to be nearly that high-scoring to still cash this Over ticket. Portland is 6th in the Western Conference, but at 10 games above .500 they have a much better record than the Heat. Enes Kanter set a record with 30 rebounds in last night’s win, a nice “step up” performance with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined (Nurkic is expected to play tonight). But maybe the real key was holding the Pistons to 9 of 26 shooting from behind the arc, a percentage the Heat should easily eclipse tonight. With the Over 12-5 when Portland is in the second night of a back to back, this number just looks too low. 8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers |
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04-11-21 | Pelicans v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): We’ve seen some uncharacteristic results from both of these teams lately. Cleveland, who is very bad, actually pulled off B2B wins earlier this week, beating both San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road. Most shocking of all is how they did. The team that is dead last in the league in points per game (103.9) put up 125 and 129 in those two victories. Of course, they then proceeded to return to their losing ways last night, falling here at home to Toronto by a score of 135-115. So it’s now four straight Overs for the Cavs, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them the previous five games, all of which went Under. During that five-game stretch, they never topped 101 points and averaged only 90.8 PPG. As I stated earlier, this is the lowest scoring team in the league. So after beating their season average in points scored in three straight games, expect them to have an “off-shooting night” Sunday when they host the Pelicans, who held their previous opponent to only 94 points. That kind of defense was a bit of a radical departure for New Orleans. After all, they’d just given up 139 (to Brooklyn) the game before that. But by holding the 76ers to 94 in a much-needed win, the Pelicans are now “sniffing” the play-in spots for the Western Conference playoffs. They’ve topped 111 just once in the last five games though and my guess is they’ll keep the Cavs in check tonight. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Under is 11-5 this season for Cleveland when the total is 220 or higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers |
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04-10-21 | Nina Ansaroff v. Mackenzie Dern OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-10-21 | John Makdessi v. Ignacio Bahamondes OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes (2:10 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs) between John Makdessi (17-7 overall, 10-7 in UFC) and Ignacio Bahamondes, who is 11-3 overall and making his UFC debut. The fight takes place on the prelims and can be viewed on ESPN. I like for it to (likely) go to the scorecards, or at least get past the midway point of Round 3. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. Makdessi has been in the UFC for just over a decade. He’s been used sparingly since 2016, but it is during that time he’s experienced his most success. He was actually on a nice 4-1 run before losing (by decision) to Francisco Trinaldo in March of last year. That was Makdessi’s fourth consecutive fight to go to the judge’s, so you can see why I like the Over here. (He won the previous three, for the record). Overall, 10 of his last 14 fights have gone to the cards. Bahamondes is coming off a win in Dana White’s Contenders Series, a 2nd round KO of Edson Gomez back in December. Before that, he’d been involved in three consecutive decisions, two wins and one loss. I don’t think Makdessi is likely to take Bahamondes down, thus this fight is likely to be mostly standing. While that’s a little scary for betting the Over, I think much of the fight will be Makdessi respecting Bahamondes’ range (he’s 6’3”, which is tall for a lightweight), so there won’t be a ton of enthralling exchanges. 7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes |
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04-09-21 | Wolves v. Celtics OVER 228.5 | Top | 136-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over T’wolves/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston has gone Under in each of its last seven games. However, a matchup with the team with the worst record in the NBA should result in them putting up a big number Friday. I believe it’s critical to note who the Celtics have faced recently. Their last game was against the Knicks, who have the league’s top scoring defense. Before that, it was the Sixers, who are #2 in defensive efficiency. So it’s not a surprise those games were low-scoring. This will be a much different story. Minnesota is off a 141-137 loss to Indiana, which is the exact opposite of “low-scoring.” It was not an overtime game either. Making matters more embarrassing for the T’wolves’ defensive effort is the fact the Pacers were short-handed, down FOUR starters including All-Star Domantas Sabonis. The Pacers’ bench scored 69 points in the game. They had 77 overall, a season-high, in the first half and opened up a 22-point lead. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised seeing as the T’wolves allow the third most points per game in the league? The last three Celtics-T’wolves encounters have all gone Over. The most recent was over a year ago and Boston won 127-117. Though their last two games were both low-scoring efforts, the Celtics did score 118 and 116 when they faced Houston and Charlotte the two games prior. I expect them to be in that range, if not higher, tonight. Boston isn’t exactly great defensively either as they allow just over 110 PPG. The Over is 8-3 in Minnesota’s L11 road games. 10* Over T’wolves/Celtics |
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04-08-21 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 204.5 | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): This rematch from last year’s NBA Finals certainly lacks the luster of the six-game series in October or even the meeting the teams had back in late February. That’s owed to the fact LeBron James is M.I.A. as is Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The defending champs are actually 4-5 SU since James got hurt, which isn’t bad, but they’ve fallen into fifth place in the Western Conference. Miami enters this game in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, but with a much worse straight up record than the Lakers (Heat are 26-25, Lakers 32-19) The Heat have actually given up more points than they have scored this season. Things had been trending in a positive direction though. At least before they lost to Memphis 124-112 as 6.5-point favorites Tuesday night. Before that loss, the Heat had won four straight games while allowing only 96.25 PPG. They let the Grizzlies shoot 54.8%, offsetting their own 53.7% shooting. I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of shooting percentages in tonight’s game. Yes, this total is quite low. But it ought to be given how the Lakers’ season has gone. Tuesday’s 110-101 win over Toronto was only the second LA game to go Over since LeBron got hurt. The Lakers are 33-17 Under in all games this season, including 17-2 when facing a team that has a winning record (note: Toronto has a losing record). The problem (for the Lakers) is the fact they have the second lowest offensive efficiency in the league without James. 8* Under Lakers/Heat |
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04-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
8* Under D’backs/Rockies (3:10 ET): I tried with the Under here on Tuesday and caught a terrible break as the Rockies tied the game in the bottom of the ninth and then eight total runs were scored in extra innings. Last night was all about the Rockies ending a four-game losing streak with an 8-0 shutout. I’ll go back to the Under today as the only Arizona game to go Over in the L5 was the aforementioned series opener here. Thursday starter Merrill Kelly is 6-0 Under his L6 starts. The D’backs had scored just five runs before Tuesday’s game went into extra innings. That’s their highest producing nine-inning effort since the season opener, which they lost 8-7 at San Diego. Since that time, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer four times and shut out twice. As a team, they are batting only .216. CF Ketel Marte left yday’s game with an injury, so that’s one less hitter Rockies starter Jon Gray has to worry about. In his first start of 2021, Gray looked sharp as he held the Dodgers to one run on four hits in 5 IP. Kelly did not have a particularly effective first outing as he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs. Still, that game - a 4-2 D’backs loss - stayed Under the total. While Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs per game so far, they’re hitting a collective .228. So in the absence of better hitting, I expect the run production to start to decrease. Rockies’ hitters have struck out 20 times in this series and 16 runs on 19 hits seems like a bit of good fortune to me. Arizona is 26-8 Under after scoring two runs or less. 8* Under D’backs/Rockies |
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04-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
9* Under D’backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): This is the series opener. Betting the Under at Coors Field is typically not the “safest play,” but it’s early in the season and the respective hitters of both these teams are not exactly hitting the cover off the ball. Arizona’s first series of the year saw them go 1-3 vs. San Diego as they avoided a sweep with a 3-1 on Sunday. Colorado is also 1-3, but their win came on Opening Day. Even facing the Dodgers here at Coors, the last two games stayed Under the total. Arizona lost 8-7 on Opening Day and since then has done little scoring. They have just five runs the last three games, all of which stayed Under. The D’backs split 10 games with the Rockies last year, but did take three of the three here in Denver. They scored 32 runs in that series (Over was 3-0), but don’t look for anything of the sort here as Rockies starter German Marquez only gave up one run to the Dodgers in his first start (6 IP). There were control issues for Marquez, but that feels like an aberration. Luke Weaver will make his first 2021 start today for the Diamondbacks. He did not have a good 2020, so Coors Field may not seem like an ideal place for a turnaround. But the Rockies have managed only 11 hits their last two games combined. If four games vs. the Dodgers produced an average of “only” 11.7 rpg, then it stands to reason we should expect fewer here. The Under is 8-3-2 the L13 games played at Coors Field. 9* Under D’backs/Rockies |
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04-06-21 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 220 | Top | 119-134 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Pistons/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I had the Over in last night’s Pistons game, which was in Oklahoma City. They scored a shocking 132 points (new season-high), which was a sharp departure from their previous game when they lost by 44 at home to the Knicks. Now keep in mind that Oklahoma City is terrible. I don’t expect the Pistons to shoot 51.6% from the floor again when they face Denver tonight. In that loss to the Knicks, Detroit scored only 81 points (a season-low!). The good news for the Pistons is that they’ve covered all three times they’ve been an underdog of at least 12.5 points this season. The bad news is they are 0-3 SU in those games. Denver is not a team you want to be facing right now as the Nuggets have won five in a row and moved past the depleted Lakers into fourth place in the Western Conference. During this five game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 101.6 PPG. A head-scratching loss to Toronto, the Nuggets’ only defeat over the L7 games, is also the only time during that stretch they’ve surrendered more than 109 points to their opponents. The fact that Denver plays at the second slowest pace in the league also helps our Under cause tonight. The Nuggets have shot better than 50% during the 5-game win streak, but that’s difficult to maintain. Detroit did hold OKC to 5 of 27 shooting from three-point range last night. 10* Under Pistons/Nuggets |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga (9:20 ET): Baylor and Gonzaga were widely considered the two best teams in College Basketball all season long. So I’m glad we’ve got them matched up in Monday’s National Title Game. Unbeaten Gonzaga is the one who very nearly failed to “hold up their end of the bargain” as they needed overtime to defeat 11-seed UCLA in a game for the ages. Baylor had a much easier time Saturday as they blew out Houston 78-59, a game I’d rather not hear about again. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Baylor will be willing to play at Gonzaga’s preferred tempo. The Zags are 7th in the country in adjusted tempo and they lead the country in scoring at 91.6 PPG. However, they haven’t been able to hit that number in regulation in any of the L4 games. They shot 59.6% against Creighton and 58.7% against UCLA, percentages they won’t be able to match here against a longer and more athletic opponent. Baylor has held four of its five Tournament opponents to 63 points or less. That’s a very unrealistic number for this matchup, but they did hold Arkansas (who also likes to play fast) to 72 in the Elite Eight. This is a high total, even for Gonzaga, and certainly for a National Title Game. It should also be noted that Gonzaga held its first four Tournament opponents to 71 points or less. They are actually quite underrated defensively (8th in the country in efficiency). Baylor won’t shoot 52.7% from the field in this game like they did against Houston. This game may not stay Under by a lot, but I don’t see both teams scoring 80+ and that is likely what would be needed for an Over. 10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga |
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04-05-21 | Pistons v. Thunder OVER 212.5 | Top | 132-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Pistons/Thunder (7:05 ET): Two teams coming off 40+ point losses on Saturday. OKC took its worst loss in franchise history (133-85) at the hands of Portland while Detroit suffered its worst loss in 27 years (125-81) and that was at home to the Knicks. There’s nothing positive I can say about either team right now and when it’s “bad vs. bad,” typically you don’t see a lot of defense being played. On the bright side, both teams are definitely going to score more points tonight than they did on Saturday. Take the Over. The Thunder have lost five of six and their two losses to open April were by a combined 85 points. Not only did they just let Portland score 133, but Phoenix had just torched them for 140 (on 60.0% shooting) the night before. Three of the last four games have seen OKC surrender at least 127 points. While I can’t guarantee the defense will be THAT bad again tonight, I can say with virtual certainty that the Thunder should see a dramatic increase in their own scoring, compared to Saturday. They are averaging 107.1 PPG at home this season. Detroit has lost six of eight and remains in last place in the Eastern Conference. Losing by 44 at home is obviously inexcusable, but I will point out the Knicks do lead the league in scoring defense. OKC is at the opposite end of spectrum. The last three times the Pistons have been held below 100 points, they’ve come back to score 116, 111 and 118 in their next game. I see a similar number for them tonight. This number is lower than the average number of total points per game for both teams this season. 10* Over Pistons/Thunder |
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04-05-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10* Over Royals/Indians (4:10 ET): This is the home opener for the team with the lowest payroll in MLB, Cleveland. The Indians began the 2021 season by losing the first two games at Detroit. They picked up their first win Sunday, 9-3. Kansas City’s first series was just the opposite. They took the first two games before losing yday. All three games with Texas went Over. The Royals scored 28 runs in three games, but also gave up 21. I see today’s game continuing the streak of Overs. The Indians are likely to struggle to score runs in 2021. But they busted loose for nine yday. Most of them (eight) came over the final four innings. Today they’ll face Danny Duffy, a southpaw that they’ve seen many times before. Duffy posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 11 starts last season. Only one of the 11 was a quality start as he rarely pitched a full six innings. Ironically, he pitched well against Cleveland twice. But the Over is 3-0-1 the last four times Duffy has started a series opener. The Over is also 5-0 L5 times he’s faced a team with a losing record. Starting here for Cleveland will be Logan Allen, who had an excellent Spring and is down 35 lbs. This is his first regular season start in over a year and half. It’s a tough matchup for him, facing a lineup that scored 25 runs in its first two games of the season. The Royals did strikeout 14 times Sunday and fell behind by 4+ for the third consecutive game. I think that will lead to them being MUCH more aggressive at the plate in this game, at least early on. 10* Over Royals/Indians |
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04-04-21 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over White Sox/Angels (8:37 ET): Twice the Angels have rallied to beat the White Sox. They got two runs in the bottom of the eighth in Thursday’s opener (won 4-3), then scored three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-3 last night. In between, they lost the middle game 12-8. While things may not get that high scoring tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, I am expecting the Over to cash. We’ve seen a total of 35 runs scored in the three games thus far with teams also combining for 51 hits. The “attraction” for this game is that Angels’ starter Shohei Ohtani will also be coming up to bat. Not only that, he’ll be hitting second in the lineup. This is the first time Ohtani has ever started and hit in the same MLB game. He also played yesterday, going 1 for 4 at the plate. I’m curious as to how this will affect his pitching Sunday night. He was not particularly good (on the mound) in Spring Training as he posted a 12.19 ERA in 10 ⅓ IP. He’ll have to deal with the red hot Yermin Mercedes, who is 8 for 9 at the plate this season for Chicago. Having led going into the 8th inning in every game this season, the White Sox have to be “kicking themselves” for only being 1-2. The offense, averaging 6.0 rpg, has obviously been fine. But I’m not looking for much here from starter Dylan Cease, who had a 4.01 ERA in 12 starts last year. In two prior starts vs. the Angels, Cease’s ERA is 6.48. The Over is 7-4 in his L11 starts. The Over is also 7-2 in the White Sox last nine games here in Anaheim, so I look for this to sneak Over the key number of 9. 10* Over White Sox/Angels |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Lakers/Clippers (3:30 ET): We all know about the Lakers’ current plight. But playing without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, things actually haven’t been THAT bad as the team’s record is 3-5 SU since the James ankle injury. They did win 114-94 in Sacramento Friday night. It’s actually the Clippers that come in off B2B losses (one to Orlando!) and in both games they were held below 100 points. I look for this Sunday matinee to be lower-scoring than expected and thus Under is the call here. The Clippers can be an absolutely maddening team. Before the B2B losses, both of which were here at home, they’d won six in a row. Defense hasn’t really been a problem for them. Over the L10 games they’ve held every opponent to 112 points or less, including 105 or less eight times. But the Clips shot 41% against both the Magic & Nuggets and that’s a big reason why they lost those two games. Rajon Rondo is set to debut this afternoon, but I don’t think that will be much of a boon offensively. The Clippers never led against Denver Thursday night, losing 101-94. They let the Nuggets shoot 52% from three-point range, something I don’t think will happen here with the Lakers. The Lakers haven’t shot better than 48% (overall) in any game since James got hurt. Six times they’ve been held below 44%. But, like the Clippers, their play at the defensive end has been admirable. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and even without James & Davis, they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 94 points or less. Eight of their last nine games have gone Under, including five straight. The Under is 16-2 this season when the Lakers face a team with a winning record. 10* Under Lakers/Clippers |
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04-03-21 | Bucks v. Kings UNDER 239 | Top | 129-128 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Bucks/Kings (10:05 ET): Both teams are in the second night of a back to back, but that’s where the similarities end. Milwaukee was a 127-109 winner in Portland last night while Sacramento lost 115-94 here at home to the Lakers. For the Bucks, last night was their second straight win after suffering three straight losses. For the Kings, last night was a second straight loss after a five-game win streak. The Bucks have shot well each of the last two games. They were 53.2% from the field against the Lakers on Wednesday, then 54.4% against the Blazers last night. A third straight game with that high of a field goal percentage seems unlikely, even though they are facing the Kings, who are not good defensively. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18 on two-point attempts last night and scored 47 points. No way he repeats that performance. I do think the Bucks can maintain their recent defensive efforts though. They held the Lakers to a 40.2 FG% and Portland to 36.4. Sacramento has shot 42.4% each of the L2 games. Their two best players - De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield - combined to go 1 for 13 from three-point range last night as the team was held under 100 points for just the second time this season. While you can argue a bit of an offensive bounce back is in order, this O/U line is really high and these teams are “due” for an Under after all of their 16 meetings have gone Over! The Bucks are 5-1 Under playing in the second night of a back to back as well. 10* Under Bucks/Kings |
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04-03-21 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Twins/Brewers (7:10 ET): These teams combined for 11 runs on Opening Day, but let’s not look past the fact that the game went to extra innings after Milwaukee scored three in the bottom half of the ninth. New Twins closer Alex Colome had an auspicious debut to say the least. After the teams had an off-day, I am looking for fewer runs to be scored here on Saturday night as we’ve got two solid starters on the mound and the bullpen issue probably won’t be repeated. Though they were well-positioned to win Thursday, the Twins did strike out 17 times. I expect them to struggle to make contact here against Corbin Burnes, who finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting last season for Milwaukee. Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 2020 and never allowed more than 3 ER in any of his nine starts. He allowed 1 ER in seven of the nine! There were three starts where he finished with at least 10 strikeouts, so Burnes has to like what he saw Thursday. The Under was 3-0 his L3 starts of 2020. Starting opposite Burnes will be Jose Berrios, an All-Star in both 2018 and ‘19 for Minnesota. Though 2020 was perceived as a “step back” for the right-hander, his fastball was regularly hitting 97.5 MPH in Spring Training, so he seems poised to regain the form we saw the previous two seasons. Manager Rocco Baldelli said “Jose is in a fantastic spot physically.” The Under was 8-4-1 in all Berrios’ starts LY and he only gave up eight home runs. For Milwaukee, Burnes allowed only ONE HR in nine outings! 10* Under Twins/Brewers |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Houston/Baylor (5:14 ET): We had the Over in Baylor’s 81-72 win over Arkansas in the Elite 8. That play cashed as it ended up being - rather easily - the Bears’ highest scoring game of the Tournament. That shouldn’t be a surprise, not because I had the Over, but rather due to the pace Arkansas plays at. The Razorbacks were a top 20 team nationally in adjusted tempo, a far cry from Baylor’s previous two opponents. Like the dispatched Wisconsin and Villanova, Houston plays at one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the country. Thus I’m pivoting to the Under for this Final Four matchup. It’s not just Houston’s tempo that has me on the Under here. The Cougars are #2 in the country in scoring defense (57.6 PPG allowed) and #1 in opposing FG% (37.3). The fact they’ve advanced despite not scoring more than 67 points in any of the L3 games should tell you all you need to know about their defense. In four Tournament games, the Cougars have allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. The most points they’ve given up in any of the four games is 61. The Under is 3-0 the L3 games. Baylor is 7-2 Over its L9 games, however they allowed just 55, 63 and 51 points in the three games prior to facing Arkansas. They scored 46 points in the 1H of the Arkansas game, which is a lot, and also shot 53.3% for the game from three-point range. Don’t see them matching those kinds of numbers on Saturday, even if they are #1 in the country from three-point range. Houston is allowing just 28.3% shooting from behind the arc this season. Baylor can take solace in the fact Houston shot just 32.3% against Oregon State. Three of the Bears’ four Tourney opponents have shot worse than 28% from distance. 8* Under Houston/Baylor |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Heat (8:05 ET): Coming out of the All-Star Break, Miami was as hot as any team in the league. They won their final seven games in February and a dominating performance against Cleveland on March 16th (113-98) was their 12th win in 13 games. But then they went into a tailspin, losing six in a row and failing to cover the spread in all six games. It should be noted four of those six losses were by four points or less. They’ve seemingly now “righted the ship” by winning two straight, both in low-scoring fashion, including 92-87 last night at Indiana which was my 10* Game of the Week. Tonight the Heat return home to face Golden State. The Warriors thankfully have Steph Curry back in their lineup and he led the way with 32 points in Monday’s 116-102 win over Chicago. Curry had missed the team’s previous five games and they’d lost four in a row without him. The Dubs currently sit ninth in the Western Conference standings with a two-game gap between them and 8th place. Realistically, it’s looking like they can finish no higher than 7th. In the weaker East, Miami can finish as high as 4th, even though they have a very similar record (to Golden State). Miami has been held to 85 pts or less more than anybody this season and is coming off B2B sub-100 point games. But I believe they rediscover their offense tonight. Victor Oladipo is set to debut and that will help. Not once has the Heat had a three-game stretch where they failed to top 105 points this season. The Over is 39-18-1 the L58 home games vs. a team with a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. Golden State’s road record is 9-15 SU/ATS. The Warriors average 112.7 PPG for the season and when these teams met in late February, the final score was 120-112 (GS won). That was right before Miami went on to win 12 of its next 13. 10* Over Warriors/Heat |
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03-30-21 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 222.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): These have been two of my favorite teams to watch this season, so I’m pretty excited about the matchup. Atlanta is 6th in the East with a .500 SU record, but I look for them to finish higher than their current standing by season’s end. Right now, they are in the middle of an eight-game road trip. You may recall that I had the Over in their last game, which cashed and ended up being a 126-102 loss in Denver. That dropped them to 2-3 on the trip, but they easily could have won the other two games they lost. Phoenix is a surprising second in the West, ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They are 3.5 games behind first place Utah after winning two straight in low-scoring fashion. Wins over Toronto (104-100) and Charlotte (101-97) made it a successful trip of their own out East (won three of four). The game vs. Charlotte on Sunday afternoon was really low-scoring when you consider it went to overtime. At the end of regulation, things were knotted at 90 apiece. But I’ll chalk that up to the usual “Sunday afternoon hangover” so many teams seem to experience in those early games. The Suns shot only 35.4% against the Hornets on Sunday and I look for them to easily improve upon that number tonight. Atlanta has let its last two opponents shoot north of 50%. For the year, Phoenix averages 115.3 PPG on 49.2% shooting at home. They are #8 in offensive efficiency. Atlanta is 13-3 Over following a DD loss and their L3 games with a total south of 232.5 have all gone Over. 10* Over Hawks/Suns |
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03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under UCLA/Michigan (9:57 ET): UCLA is now the lone double-digit seed (they are an 11) in the Tournament. They’ve had to win FOUR games just to get here as they were in the “First Four.” The Bruins are the first “First Four” team to reach the Elite 8 since the famous 2011 VCU team that made it all the way to the Final Four for Shaka Smart. Give them their due, but two of UCLA’s wins have come in overtime, one of those the “First Four” game (vs. Michigan State) where they trailed most of the way. They got a weak 6-seed (BYU) and then a 14-seed (Abilene Christian) in the Round of 32. However, there was nothing “phony” at all about the way Mick Cronin’s team defeated 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. Yes, the game went to OT, but the Bruins did lead most of the way. I think what is interesting is the fact the game would have stayed Under if not for OT. There were only 130 total points scored in regulation before a very high scoring extra five minutes. None of UCLA’s last three games have eclipsed the 135-point mark in regulation. Michigan, a top 10 team nationally in defensive efficiency, holds teams to 65.6 PPG on 39.3% shooting for the season. After struggling some against LSU in the Round of 32, Michigan looked very impressive in a blowout win (76-58) over Florida State in the Sweet 16. They are 8-1 Under this season following a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Under has also gone 6-1 in their games with a total of 130 to 139.5 and is 8-2 the L10 times they’ve played with one or zero days’ rest. With UCLA playing at a bottom 20 pace (# of possessions per game) in the country, I see this ending up being a relatively low-scoring game. The Wolverines are without their second leading scorer and made only three 3-pointers vs. FSU. 10* Under UCLA/Michigan |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor OVER 147.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Arkansas/Baylor (9:57 ET): Both of these teams average more than 80 points per game and are off poor shooting efforts from three-point range. For Baylor, that’s quite atypical. The Bears lead the country in making 40.8% of their attempts from behind the arc. They were just 3 of 19 in the 62-51 win over Villanova. That was their lowest scoring game of the year (by total points) and the second fewest points scored by them in any game. When they scored a season-low 58 at Kansas on 2/27, they came back the next game and scored 94. It’s a similar deal with Arkansas, who averages 81.7 PPG but is off a game where they were just 1 of 9 from three-point range. The 72-70 win over Oral Roberts marked the fourth time in five games the Razorbacks were held below their season average in points per game. So they are due for a breakout effort at the offensive end of the floor. This is a pretty low total by Arkansas’ standards and Baylor is 6-2 Over its L8 games. A team that leads the country in three-point shooting coming off a game where they shot 3 of 19 is a classic bounce back opportunity. Further improving the likelihood of Baylor scoring plenty of points tonight is the fact Arkansas was lucky to hold Oral Roberts to 8 of 31 shooting from 3-point range on Saturday. For the season, the Razorbacks have let their opponents hit 39.1% from behind the arc when away from Fayetteville. Also of note is the fact Arkansas plays at a MUCH faster tempo (17th) than either of Baylor’s previous two opponents (329 and 336). Baylor held Villanova to 3 of 17 shooting from 3-point range, a percentage the Razorbacks should easily eclipse. 8* Over Arkansas/Baylor |
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03-29-21 | Kings v. Spurs UNDER 228 | Top | 132-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Spurs (8:35 ET): I chose the Spurs on Saturday and they rolled to a 120-104 win against the new-look Bulls. That snapped a four-game losing skid for Greg Popovich’s team, who is now 7th in the Western Conference with a 23-20 SU record. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that is on a surprising four-game win streak (matches a season-high). It should be pointed out here that the last time the Kings won four in a row, they proceeded to lose their next nine games (also went 0-9 ATS). This particular four-game win streak has seen the Kings beat lowly Cleveland twice and also wounded Golden State. So let’s not go making playoff reservations just yet, although the Kings are now just one game back of the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. Surprisingly, it has been an improvement on the defensive end that has spurred on Sacramento recently. They’ve allowed 108 points or less in three of the last four games. While two of those were against Cleveland, the other time was vs. Atlanta. But I like this game to go Under primarily because I don’t see the Kings matching their red-hot shooting from the last two games. They connected at a ridiculous 59.6% clip against Golden State last Thursday, then were over 50% against vs. Cleveland on Saturday. San Antonio, save for one bad game vs. the Clippers, has been pretty solid defensively as of late. They’ve held six of the last eight opponents to 110 points or less and the Under is 10-1 the L11 times they’ve hosted a team with a losing road record. Sacramento, who is on a 7-0 Under run when playing with exactly one day of rest, is 9-13 SU on the road. 10* Under Kings/Spurs |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon/USC (9:45 ET): The last time an Oregon game went Under was February 22nd. The opponent was USC. The Ducks again run into their Pac 12 rival here in the Sweet 16 after going Over in eight consecutive contests. They caught a huge break last weekend as their 1st round opponent (VCU) had to withdraw due to COVID-19 protocols. Taking full advantage of the “bye,” the Ducks blitzed Iowa 95-80 in a dominant second round victory. But as we’ve seen before, scoring on USC won’t be as easy. The Trojans put the clamps down defensively on both Drake and Kansas last weekend. They held them both to ridiculously low shooting percentages (29.4 and 29.0 respectively) and allowed only 107 points total. Dominating efforts at the defensive end are something we’ve seen throughout the year from Andy Enfield’s team. USC opponents have shot just 38.7% for the season and Oregon was held 40.4% overall despite going 7 of 17 from three-point range. The Ducks scored only 22 first half points in that game. Now Oregon has lost only once since that time and they’ve shot better than 55% from the field in four of their last five games, which is somewhat preposterous. Given USC’s defensive resume, I’m expecting the Ducks to “cool off” considerably on Sunday night. Nor do I expect USC to match its ridiculously hot shooting from the last game as they made an incredible 57.1% against Kansas. These teams know each other well and that familiarity should lead to a relatively low-scoring contest. Oregon’s Over streak is “due” to end and USC is 8-3 Under following a win by 20+ points. 8* Under Oregon/USC |
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03-28-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 102-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two teams looking to move up the standings in their respective conferences meet Sunday in what should be a good one. Atlanta is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since making a coaching change at the beginning of the month and for my money is the fourth best team in the East. Denver has won 10 of its last 13 games (8-5 ATS) to move closer to the injury-riddled Lakers for fourth place in the West. Both sides are coming off wins in their last time out. Atlanta was a 124-108 winner at Golden State. That was - by far - their highest scoring effort so far on this current road trip, which is now half over. When all is said and done, it will be an eight-game trip. The first four games were all played in California and saw the Hawks go 2-2 SU. They probably feel that record should be better as they blew a huge lead and lost to the Clippers, then fell by two at Sacramento. I do not see them matching their 54.8% shooting we saw vs. Golden State, but the number of PPG allowed in the L5 games (104.8) is likely to start going up as well. When these teams met in Atlanta last month, it was a 123-115 Hawks win where the Over cashed pretty easily. The total is several points LOWER for the rematch, which seems odd. Denver has scored at least 110 points in six of its last seven games and is averaging 116.2 at home for the year. The Over is 27-18 in all Nuggets’ games this season. They attempted only seven free throws in the win over New Orleans on Friday and still scored 113 points. 10* Over Hawks/Nuggets |
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03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 157.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga (2:15 ET): Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. They are #1 in the country in scoring at 92.1 PPG and what’s scary is that they still scored 87 on OU despite shooting below 50% (49.1) for the first time in nearly two months. Creighton had a close call in Round 1 (beat UCSB 63-62) before easily ousting Ohio in Round 2 (72-58). I saw Clark Kellogg on CBS say that the Bluejays were “due” to break out of their scoring slump and I concurred, a big reason why I took them against Ohio. Ironically, it was their defense that led the way in that win as the Bobcats shot just 31.8% overall and couldn’t make any outside shots. While Creighton is allowing just 60 PPG in the Tourney thus far, that’s not really indicative of “who they are” and I do expect them to struggle defensively in this matchup. Assuming Gonzaga can come close to its season average of 92.1 PPG, we would only need around 70 points from Creighton to send this one Over the total. Considering the Bluejays come in averaging 76.3 PPG on the year, I think they can do it. Kellogg was right; this is a team that typically shoots better than what we’ve seen so far in the Tourney. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as Gonzaga is 39-16 Over its L55 games. 10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga |
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03-27-21 | Modestas Bukauskas v. Michal Oleksiejczuk UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 59 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk (8:10 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs) and will take place on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN. Modestas Bukauskas comes in with an 11-3 career mark, including 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his last time out, suffering a first round KO at the hands of Jimmy Crute. Michal Oleksiejczuk is 14-4 overall and 2-2 in the UFC. He too suffered a first round defeat at the hands of Crute in his last fight! I’m looking for another “quick one” from these two fighters and will take the Under 2.5 rounds. Despite being on a two-fight losing skid, Oleksiejczuk is the favorite here. Not only did he lose to Crute 13 months ago, but he was beaten by Ovince St. Preux back in September 2019. That fight saw him stopped 2:14 into Round 2 via a shoulder choke. You’d have to go back almost two years to find the last time Oleksiejczuk had his hand raised in the Octagon. That was a 44 second knockout. Six of his last eight fights have ended in the first round, including three of the four in the UFC. Only three of his 18 career fights have gone to the scorecards. Bakauskas lost to Crute in October, so his layoff has not been as lengthy. That loss snapped a seven-fight win streak and five of those wins came in the first round. In fact, 9 of Bakauskas’ last 11 fights have not made it to the second round. Given the respective resumes here, I don’t see how you can expect this fight to go very long, let alone make it to the halfway point of the third round. 8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk |
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03-26-21 | Blazers v. Magic UNDER 220 | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Magic (8:05 ET): Portland was a 125-122 winner last night in Miami, snapping a two-game losing skid. They are now tied for 5th in the Western Conference, though they’ve been outscored on the year, which gives them a significantly worse point differential than the top five. Really, it’s quite head-scratching how this team is currently eight games above .500. They aren’t very sound defensively, two of their top three players missed significant time and they’ve suffered the most 20+ point losses in the league. But here we are. Orlando is near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and considering their activity at yesterday’s trade deadline, they won’t be moving up anytime soon. They traded three of their top players away and that’s why they are such big underdogs tonight. We likely won’t be seeing any repeat of the Magic’s last performance, a 112-111 win here at home over Phoenix as 9.5-point dogs. Without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, this team will struggle to score. Those are three double digit scorers and they accounted for more than 50% of the team’s points against the Suns. Portland could get Jusuf Nurkic back tonight. CJ McCollum has already returned. They traded for Norman Powell at the deadline. But what we won’t see tonight is a repeat of last night’s three-point shooting display where the Blazers made 20 attempts from behind the arc. That’s the big key here. When these teams met last month in Portland, the final score was 106-97 and that was with the Blazers making 18 3PA. Orlando had failed to reach 100 in five of its previous six games before beating the Suns. They are 29th overall in scoring. 10* Under Blazers/Magic |
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03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET): These are two teams that have both fallen on “hard times” recently. Charlotte just lost presumed Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball (likely for the remainder of the season), which is a massive blow to a team that had been overachieving. Houston had just lost 20 in a row before beating Toronto 117-99 on Monday. Victor Oladipo is likely to be moved in the coming days as the Rockets have no chance of making the playoffs and are heading for a rebuild, post-James Harden. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, even lower-scoring than the 119-94 game they played last month. Charlotte won that game, as a 1.5-point home dog, back on February 8th. After a high-scoring first half (64-60), things slowed down rather dramatically in the second. Houston did not shoot well (40.7%) overall while the Hornets did, particularly from three-point range (19 of 41). Ball made a career-high seven threes in that game (finished with 24-7-10), but he’s obviously not going to do that again tonight. Yes, the Hornets did win their first game without Ball, beating San Antonio Monday night. But they did so in 100-97 fashion. Charlotte is 6-1 Under its L7 games and has failed to top 105 points in any of the last four. Keep in mind all but one of those games were WITH Ball in the lineup. Both teams won on Monday because of their respective efforts at the defensive end (held opponents under 100 pts) and they know that’s the path to victory moving forward. Houston is only averaging 104.6 PPG at home where the Under is now 15-5 for the season. The Under is also 5-1 this season for the Rockets when they are coming off a DD win. I just don’t think either of these teams are very good offensively right now. 10* Under Hornets/Rockets |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Colorado/Florida State (7:45 ET): So we’ve got two teams coming off very efficient wins where they were red-hot from the field. Colorado and Florida State very much won in “different ways,” but I don’t think there’s any denying that neither will be able to match the respective shooting we saw in those first round victories. Colorado made 16 three-pointers as they absolutely annihilated Georgetown 96-73. Florida State didn’t make a single three (0 for 9) in its 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro, but was 64% from inside the arc. Colorado was up 24 at halftime vs. Georgetown and saw that lead balloon to 32 in the second half. They shot 60.7% overall from the field, including a ridiculous 16 of 25 from 3-point range. No way they are matching those kinds of numbers here as FSU opponents are shooting less than 40% from the field for the season. The Buffaloes are 6-2 Under this season following a game where they scored 80+ and they are also 21-8 Under the L29 games with just one day of rest. They are 17-5 Under L22 as underdogs. Florida State is still 16-7 Over in all games this season, even though the first round win stayed Under. But here they are up against a team that gives up just 63.6 PPG and ranks top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency. I’m sure the Seminoles will make a three (or several!) tonight, but they won’t be matching that shooting from 2-point range they had on Saturday. 8* Under Colorado/Florida State |
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03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 245 | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Nets (7:05 ET): I don’t think you can find a matchup more likely to produce a ton of points than this one right here. Now obviously, that means the total is going to be high. But Brooklyn leads the league in scoring at 120.4 points per game. Washington gives up the most points at 120.2 PPG. So you have to figure the Nets will score a ton tonight. The Wizards should follow suit as they have hit at least 119 in each of their last four contests. Take the Over. The Nets are 14-2 SU their L16 games, but coming off a shocking 121-113 loss to Orlando, a game where they came in as 11-point favorites. While they finished below their season average in PPG, the main culprit for the defeat was the fact they let Orlando sink 21 three-pointers. It was also the second straight game a Brooklyn opponent shot 51.2% from the field. I won’t be surprised to see the defensive issues persist tonight, but there is a reason this team has been so successful and that’s the offensive end of the floor. I expect James Harden will have a bounce back game after struggling vs. the Magic (just 4 of 15 shooting). Washington has given up at least 120 points in six straight games. Brooklyn’s last three games have all gone Over. So did both previous meetings this year vs. the Wizards and surprisingly enough, both were Washington victories. The second was an insane 149-146 final and there was no overtime. The first was a 123-122 final. 10* Over Wizards/Nets |
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03-18-21 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 229 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over T’Wolves/Suns (10:05 ET): We all remember how the entire sports world was put on lockdown a little over a year ago. Since resuming, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the best teams in the entire NBA. They won all eight games in the bubble and while they were still denied a playoff berth, that hasn’t stopped them from starting this season 26-12. Truly one of the ascendent teams in this league, the Suns are only 2.5 games back of the Jazz for the top spot in the Western Conference as they have won 18 of their past 22 games. They are off a commanding 122-99 win over Memphis back on Monday. Minnesota operates at the opposite end of the spectrum. They have the fewest number of wins in the NBA (9) and have been the loser in 11 of their last 13 contests. Tuesday saw them go down 137-121 at the hands of the Lakers, who were playing the second night of a back to back. Thus the T’wolves were again denied B2B wins, something they have not done since starting the season 2-0! Since that time, they are just 7-31 SU overall. This is the first of two straight games for them here in Phoenix. The last time these teams played was Feb 28. That was a relatively low-scoring game with the Suns winning 118-99 (as a 10-pt favorite). Neither team shot well from 3-point range and it was a bad overall shooting night from Minnesota. Given that the T’wolves just allowed 137 points in their last game, I expect Phoenix to score plenty tonight. They’ve scored 120 or more in 8 of the last 12 games. Minnesota’s L5 games have averaged 241.4 points as they’ve topped 120 three times themselves while also giving up that many three times. They’ve allowed 135+ twice. The Over is 6-1 for them this season after a game where they allowed 130+ points. 10* Over T’Wolves/Suns |
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03-17-21 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Bucks/Sixers (7:05 ET): There are three elite teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference this season and these are definitely two of them (Brooklyn being the other). Milwaukee has finished first in the East each of the L2 seasons (no NBA Finals appearances though) and has the best YTD point differential. But it’s Philadelphia leading the way so far this year with a 28-12 SU record and they’ve won six in a row. Not to be outdone, the Bucks come into tonight riding a four-game win streak. Something will have to give. Philly’s recent shooting spree was “due” to cool off and sure enough it did last night. While they still managed to beat the Knicks, they did so in low-scoring fashion, 99-96 as seven-point favorites. They had to come from behind to win and did so by holding the Knicks to just 14 points in the fourth quarter. The previous five games had seen the Sixers shoot a blistering 54.2% from the field, which couldn’t possibly be sustained and sure enough they shot just 41.1% last night, including 11 of 32 from three-point range. Milwaukee has scored 125+ in each of its last three games, but two of those were against Washington, who plays little to no defense. The Bucks shot 55.3% from the field in their last game, so they are due to “cool off” as well. The Sixers are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and 4-1 Under this season when the total is 230 points or higher. This should be a hard fought game that stays Under a VERY high total. 8* Under Bucks/Sixers |
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03-16-21 | Atalanta v. Real Madrid OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Atalanta/Real Madrid (4:00 ET): Real Madrid is in the driver’s seat going into the second leg of this Round of 16 matchup in the Champions League. They won the first leg 1-0 away and did so without a number of key players on the pitch. The lone goal occurred in the 86th minute. So now Atalanta will need to win while scoring at least twice here in Madrid. That’s not that improbable of a scenario when you think about it, but the need for goal scoring will also leave the Serie A side open to attack. I feel the best course of action Tuesday is to play the Over. Real Madrid, surprisingly, haven’t fared all that well in the Champions League, winning just five of their last 11 in this competition. But they have done quite well against Italian sides, winning three in a row in this year’s UCL. On the domestic front, they are currently third in La Liga, maybe not where they want but they are in a good position to make it back to the UCL next season. Key to their recent success is the fact they’ve conceded no more than one goal in each of the last nine fixtures. That run will be put to the test here by Atalanta, who can score goals with the best of any European side. La Dea have the second most goals (63) this season in Serie A and just tallied three over the week against Spezia. This opponent will obviously be more difficult to crack, but - like I mentioned earlier - the need for goal scoring here will leave them open to attack. This should be higher scoring than the reverse fixture with a 2-1 outcome (either way) quite likely. 10* Over Atalanta/Real Madrid |
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03-15-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 227 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Mavericks (9:05 ET): Following a terrible 135-115 loss last night in New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard called the Clippers’ lack of consistency “very concerning.” He’s right. The team trailed by as many as 33 last night and is now only fourth in the Western Conference standings. They’ve dropped four of their last five games with the only win coming at home vs. Golden State. All four losses have come on the road - where they’ll be again tonight - and two were to sub-.500 teams. Speaking of inconsistent, it will be Dallas hosting the Clippers tonight. The Mavs have been on a recent uptick, winning five of their last six games, but are still only in 8th place. I expect better from them after an underachieving 2019-20 campaign. Saturday’s 116-103 win in Denver was definitely a step in the right direction, especially coming on the heels of a disappointing loss at Oklahoma City in the previous game. If there is one bright spot for the Clippers here, it’s the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in the second night of back to back. But who could forget the last time they faced Dallas? They were down 50 points at halftime, which was a shot-clock era record, and suffered the worst defeat in franchise history (124-73). Obviously, they are going to score more tonight. But with a suspect defense (Pelicans shot 65.4% last night) and Patrick Beverley still M.I.A (and maybe Serge Ibaka too), the Clips will give up their fair share here as well. I see this game easily going Over the total as the Over has hit in each of the L4 Clippers’ games plus Dallas is 4-0 Over the L4 times it has been off a double digit win. 10* Over Clippers/Mavericks |
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03-13-21 | Ryan Spann v. Misha Cirkunov UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Spann/Cirkunov (9:50 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) battle, scheduled for three rounds on the main card. It is the co-main event. Do not expect this one to last very long, let alone go to the scorecards. The expectation for a finish is VERY strong here as the fight is currently listed at -425 to finish “inside the distance.” I believe it will end sooner than halfway point of Round 2. Take the Under 1.5 rounds. Misha Cirkunov is 15-5 in his career, 6-3 in UFC. All nine UFC fights have ended inside the distance, five of the six wins coming via submission. All three times he’s lost, he’s been TKO’d. Incredibly, the Under has hit in 13 of his previous 14 fights including each of the last six. None of those last six fights have made it out of the first round. In fact, only five of his 20 career fights have made it to Round 2. Three of those five instances took place prior to 2012. Ryan Spann is 18-6 overall, including 4-1 in UFC. He’s coming off a first round knockout loss to Johnny Walker back in September. But when Spann wins, it also tends to be in short order. All but one of his 15 career finishes have come prior to the halfway mark of Round 2. Nine of his last 11 fights have ended in Round 1. Spann will almost certainly be looking for the knockout here, but his takedown defense isn’t great and if this fight goes down to the mat, it’s likely to be Cirkunov winning in short order via submission. 10* Under Spann/Cirkunov |
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03-12-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 | Top | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon State/Oregon (8:30 ET): Oregon State’s impressive ATS run continued yesterday as they knocked out UCLA 83-79 in Pac 12 quarterfinal action. It was the Beavers’ 14th cover in the last 17 games. Here they’ll face one of the teams they failed to cover against, top-seed Oregon, who beat them 80-67 in the regular season finale at Corvallis. Note that OSU did take the season’s first meeting, 75-64 in Eugene, but that came at a time when the Ducks were playing very short-handed. Oregon had no problems yesterday as they blew out Arizona State 91-73 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils were playing their second game in as many as days (I won w/ them on Weds). Oregon was insanely hot from the field in the second half, scoring 56 points while not missing consecutive shots for almost a 15-minute stretch! The Ducks wound up shooting 59% for the game, including 10 of 18 from three-point range, the type of clip that will be awfully hard to duplicate here against their rivals. That said, the Ducks did shoot 57.4% overall and 65.2% in the regular season finale. You’ve got to think Oregon’s shooting HAS to cool down though as they are above 58% the L3 games and the Over is 6-0 L6 games. Couple that with the fact Oregon State’s final score yday was a byproduct of OT and I think you’ve got a great situation to play the Under here. The Beavers were down 16 in the 2H against UCLA before storming back with a shocking rally. Both teams are now playing w/o rest, so that’s a perfect time for them to “cool off” from the field. OSU was only averaging 63.4 PPG away from home this season going into yesterday. 8* Under Oregon State/Oregon |
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03-11-21 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 137 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Over Kansas State/Baylor (2:30 ET): Last night couldn’t have gone better for Kansas State as they routed TCU 71-50 in 1st round Big 12 Tournament action. The Wildcats were 3.5-point underdogs going into that contest, so the margin of victory was definitely surprising. They used two big second half runs - 16-0 and 21-2 - to break the game open. What shouldn’t have been all that surprising is that the game stayed Under. It was the fifth time in their last six games that KSU held its opponent under 60 points and seventh straight Under for them. But the task is about to get a lot more difficult. Considering how many points Baylor scored against Kansas State in the two regular season matchups, the odds of the Wildcats’ Under streak continuing here seem slim. Both times Baylor scored 100+ as they won those games by an average of 39.5 PPG. The Bears are the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, having lost only one game all year and that was to Kansas in the second game back from a long COVID-19 layoff. In the three games since, the Bears have averaged 87.7 PPG and topped 80 in every contest. Baylor is 8-1 Over its last 9 games overall and the Over is also 8-1 in the last nine head to head meetings between these two teams. Both of this year’s regular season games obviously flew Over and while the Bears may not score 100 again today, we probably won’t need them to. They average 85.3 PPG for the year, so all we’re looking at from Kansas State is about 60, which seems rather doable. 8* Over Kansas State/Baylor |
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03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming OVER 150.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
8* Over San Jose State/Wyoming (2:00 ET): This is pretty much the opposite of my three successful Under wagers the past two days. We’ve got two BAD defensive teams, one of which (San Jose State) stayed Under in each of its final six regular season contests. But let’s not sugarcoat things. The Spartans are an absolutely awful basketball team. They are giving up 82.2 PPG away from home for the season. Not to be outdone, Wyoming allows 76.7 PPG away from home. Expect this 1st round tournament game in the Mountain West to go Over the total. San Jose State somehow did not finish last in the MWC this year. They did go 3-13 SU in conference play, but both Air Force and New Mexico each found ways to be worse. In my opinion (and according to my power ratings), San Jose State was the worst team in the MWC this season. Regardless, all you need to know is that the bottom of the MWC is really bad. There is a significant gap between those bottom three teams and everyone else, so Wyoming has every right to be a sizable favorite here. Still, I’d never lay double digits with the Cowboys due to the fact they are not good defensively. Opponents shot better than 50% against them for the SEASON in conference play! Wyoming did close the regular season on a 4-0 ATS run, but two of those wins were against New Mexico. Seeing as the Cowboys average 75.6 PPG for the year, they should have no issue scoring today and even better is the fact they average 83.1 PPG when favored. These teams did not play in the regular season, but I think SJSU is capable of delivering one of its highest scoring games to date. Due to three cancellations, they haven’t played since February 21st. They’ll have to score as they rank 338th nationally in PPG allowed. Wyoming shot 55.1% on Saturday in its win over UNLV. 8* Over San Jose St/Wyoming |
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03-09-21 | Boston College v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Boston College/Duke (4:30 ET): So the ACC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday and in a rare sight we’ve got Duke playing in the Opening Round. This was most definitely a “down year” in Durham as the Blue Devils went just 11-11 SU and ended their regular season on a three-game losing streak. They most definitely need to win this tourney, or at least get to the final, to have any chance of making the “Big Dance” this weekend. One would think they would prevail today, but Boston College did upset Notre Dame not that long ago. Because of the “must-win” belief and the fact Duke is still one of the most “public” sides in all of College Hoops, the line is a little bit inflated here. Still, I really have zero interest in endorsing a BC side that has won just two games since X-Mas. Some of the losses have been close, like Friday’s 80-76 loss at Miami. But Miami is depleted and then you have losses like the one the Eagles were handed last Wednesday by Florida State (94-63). This is a matchup where I’m focused on the total. Duke has gone Over in six straight. But before UNC routed them on Saturday, the previous two losses both came in OT. They allowed just 64 and 65 points in regulation in those two contests. In many ways, handicapping this matchup reminds me of yday’s two successful Under wagers. You’ve got a team on a long Over run, but some of that is due to multiple OT games. When these teams met in the regular season, the score ended up 83-82 (Duke won), but BC shot the ball extremely well (56% overall including 9 of 16 from three), a performance they won’t be repeating today. The Eagles have lost two of their top three scorers since that loss to Duke. This will likely end up closing as the highest O/U line for either team all season. Duke is 20-8 Under in neutral site games when the total is 150 to 154.5. 8* Under Boston College/Duke |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland UNDER 148.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime (one of which, Cleveland State-IPFW, went to TRIPLE OT!) and the one that did end in regulation was decided by a single point. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. Northern Kentucky was the lone Horizon League team to win its quarter final game in regulation. It did so by beating Detroit 70-69 as a 1.5-point dog. The Norse seem to be peaking at the right time as that win was their 9th in the last 11 games and they are 4-0 ATS L4. It was impressive that they held Detroit to only 69 points considering the Titans shot 51% from the field, including 13 of 31 from behind the arc. The game stayed Under. Oakland’s 87-83 OT win over Youngstown State in the quarterfinals obviously went Over. That’s now eight straight Overs for the Golden Grizzlies, who are 21-6 Over on the year. But this is not a great shooting team (40.4 FG% away from home). These teams did NOT meet in the regular season and while both meetings LY did go Over those O/U lines were significantly lower than the one we’ve got here. I think the value is on the Under tonight. 10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland |
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03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State UNDER 141 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State (6:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime with one (Cleveland State-IPFW) going to TRIPLE OT. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. The first semi features two of the most fortunate teams in all of America, Cleveland State and Milwaukee. Cleveland State is the regular season champion of the Horizon League, but perhaps THE luckiest team in the country. Their luck rating is #1 at KenPom. The Vikings have six wins by four points or less this season. During a 17-4 SU, very few of their wins HAVEN’T been close. In that same vein, Milwaukee is now 3-0 SU in OT games this season. One of those OT wins was against Cleveland State on 1/23, a game they trailed by 13 with 1:59 remaining. The quarterfinal win against #2 seed Wright State was perhaps even more improbable seeing as the Panthers were down 24 with 6:26 left. Obviously, both teams’ quarterfinal games ended up high-scoring due to overtime. Milwaukee has now seen its last nine games all go Over and Cleveland State is 7-2-1 Under its L10. But I think the total for tonight is too high, especially when you compare it to the O/U lines from the two regular season matchups (131.5, 135). The first game ended up 64-53 in CSU’s favor. Milwaukee shot very poorly in both games and hasn’t been above 50% in any game since early January. 8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State |
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03-08-21 | Alavés v. Betis UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Alaves/Real Betis (3:00 ET): Real Betis has climbed its way up the La Liga table and is now in a position (6th) where they can at least start thinking about Europa League qualification (need to finish in the top 5). They are still a full nine points back of the top four, so Champions League qualification may be a “pipe dream.” Truthfully, I’m stunned to see this side so high in the table given that they’ve got 10 losses and a YTD goal differential of -5. In my opinion, several clubs below them are actually stronger. Alaves is not stronger. In poor form, they’ve dropped three straight here in La Liga and sit 19th in the table, meaning the threat of relegation is very real at this point. They are tied with Eibar (18th), but behind on goal differential. A win Monday would actually get them into safety as they’d leapfrog two teams. But picking this side to win, even against an overachieving club like Betis, seems far-fetched right now. They have not scored more than one goal in 12 consecutive matches. With just one goal scored during the current three-match losing skid, Alaves is tied for the fewest number of goals in the league this season. Real Betis is hardly a “scoring machine” either. They’ve netted only 33 goals from 25 matches, putting them firmly in the middle of La Liga in that regard. They are coming off B2B 1-0 victories over Getafe and Cadiz, two bad teams, and that very well could be the final score again Monday. It was the score in the reverse fixture back in September. 10* Under Alaves/Real Betis |
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03-06-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Carlos Ulberg OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg (7:40 ET): This is a fight, scheduled for three rounds, at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). I am taking the Over 1.5 rounds. Kennedy Nzechukwu is 7-1 in his career, but only 1-1 in UFC as he lost his debut to Paul Craig back in 2019. But he bounced back in August of that year with a decision victory over Darko Stosic. Both of his UFC fights so far have made it to the third round and it will be interesting to see how he does here coming off such a long layoff. Carlo Ulberg is undefeated in his MMA career, but has only three fights under his belt and this is his official UFC debut. A byproduct of Dana White’s Contender Series, he won his opportunity by beating Bruno Oliveira in just 2:02 via 1st round KO back in November. It has certainly been a “strange” pro career for Mr. Ulberg as his first two fights came in 2011 and 2018. So this is easily the shortest amount of time between fights for him while it's the longest gap for Nzechukwu. Nzechukwu was not known as the most aggressive fighter prior to the layoff, so it will be interesting to see if that changes. My guess is that it won’t, especially with this being his first appearance inside the Octagon in over 18 months. He’ll have the size advantage here, but look for Ulberg to somewhat neutralize that with his array of leg kicks. This fight should definitely make it past the halfway point of Round 2 and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it went to a decision. 8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns OVER 224.5 | Top | 98-120 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Suns (10:05 ET): Golden State has now lost two in a row. They usually come up big in this spot and by “usually,” I actually mean “always” as they’ve yet to lose three games in a row at any point this season. Ironically, these B2B defeats came on the heels of the Dubs’ first three-game WIN streak of the season. They fell last night in Portland 108-106. That they weren’t able to score more points against a bad defensive team like the Blazers has to be viewed as terribly disappointing. Building off last year’s perfect run in the NBA “bubble” the Suns are definitely a team you want to pay attention to in the Western Conference. Winners of 15 of their last 18 games, including the last three, they are now in second place ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They just beat the Lakers 114-104 on Tuesday. It was the third straight game and fifth time in the last six that they held the opposition to 104 or lower. That’s really impressive, but six of their last eight games (including vs. the Lakers) have still gone Over. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times these teams have met. The most recent meeting took place in late January and saw Phoenix win 114-93. Golden State had a dreadful shooting night there, but I expect better from them tonight as they are still quite capable of a big night, like when they made over 60% against Charlotte last week. Outside of Steph Curry, no one stepped up last night. Expect a player or two to step up here and Phoenix is shooting 50% its L5 games. 8* Over Warriors/Suns |
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03-04-21 | Heat v. Pelicans OVER 227 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
8* Over Heat/Pelicans (8:35 ET): I realize that Miami sometimes can be a low-scoring team (finished with just 80 points Tuesday vs. Atlanta), but New Orleans’ games almost always end up being high-scoring and that’s how I think this one will end up. The Pelicans have seen 11 of their last 12 games stay Under the total. The exception was a 117-114 loss to San Antonio where the O/U line was 232. That is the only time in the last seven games NO failed to score at least 120 points. Miami has been held to 85 points or less six different times this year, which is the most in the entire league. But the 80 they scored Tuesday marked a new season-low as they couldn’t hit “water from a boat” early on, especially from behind the arc. They missed 13 of their first 15 three-point attempts and were never really in the game. You’ve gotta expect better shooting tonight, even if Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler sit. It helps that they are facing a Pelicans team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and lets teams hit nearly 40% from 3-pt range. New Orleans is also coming off a loss, theirs by a score of 128-124 to Chicago. The fact the Pelicans have scored 120 or more in seven of their last nine games, but gone only 4-5 SU should tell you all you need to know about their defensive capabilities. Not surprisingly, they have the highest Over percentage in the league. The Heat are 5-1 Over following a double digit loss at home. 8* Over Heat/Pelicans |
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03-03-21 | Hawks v. Magic OVER 223.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Magic/Hawks (8:05 ET): In their first game under interim coach Nate McMillan, Atlanta picked up a much needed victory last night in Miami. It didn’t take many points to do so (just 94) as the Heat were held under 85 points for a NBA-high sixth time this season (they finished with just 80). Truthfully, it didn’t take long to figure out what the final result would be. Miami opened the game by missing 13 of its first 15 three-point attempts and never really recovered. The 80 points scored were a season-low for them. Coming off a game like that, it may seem a little strange that I’m liking the Hawks to go Over the total tonight. But I think the number of points allowed last night had less to do with Atlanta’s defense and more with it being just an “off-night” for the Heat. For the season, the Hawks are still allowing 112.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. They are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. Last night was the fewest points allowed by Atlanta in a game all season. It’s a given they’ll allow many more tonight. At the same time, I expect the Hawks own shooting to improve as well. Trae Young has been struggling recently. It’s the first time he’s gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 20 at least once. He has just 50 points in the three games. But facing a team that just gave up 130 points in its last game should change all that. Orlando has actually allowed 124+ points in three straight, so they are really struggling at that end of the floor right now. The Over is 11-5 the L16 times in Atlanta has been in a back to back. 10* Over Hawks/Magic |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Lakers (10:05 ET): Should be a good game here. The Suns are most definitely “hot” and a “team on the rise” (see what I did there?) in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 14-3 SU since Jan 28 and have established themselves as a top four team (in the West). They’ve held four of their last five opponents to 100 points or less, the lone exception being a wild loss at home to Charlotte last Wednesday. They’ve since won at both Chicago (106-97) and Minnesota (118-99). The challenge will obviously be greater here as the Suns face the defending NBA Champion Lakers. However, things haven’t been all that great in LA recently. There was a four-game losing streak that culminated with a beatdown at the hands of the Jazz. Clearly, LeBron James misses the injured Anthony Davis. But like what we’ve seen from Phoenix of late, the Lakers quickly got back to playing defense. They come into tonight having won two in a row as they held Portland to 93 and Golden State to 91 points. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (by a pretty comfortable margin) and allow just 105.6 PPG. Five of their last six games have seen either they or the opponent held below 100. The one exception was an overtime loss to the Wizards, whose games are almost always high-scoring. Phoenix also happens to be in the top six in defensive efficiency and they are also second to last in tempo, meaning their games - on average - feature the second fewest number of possessions in the league. Fewer possessions = less scoring. The L4 meetings here in LA have all stayed Under. 10* Under Suns/Lakers |
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03-01-21 | Massachusetts v. St. Louis OVER 144.5 | Top | 57-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over UMass/Saint Louis (6:00 ET): It’s been a really challenging regular season for both of these teams, even by 2020-21 standards. For UMass, the season did not even get underway until December 11th and they’ve only gotten 12 games in. Still, the Minutemen are set to finish with a winning record for the first time in six years. Saint Louis was once considered a Top 25 team, but a LONG pause in its season (played only one game in January) really seems to have set them back. No longer are the Billikens a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and they need a strong finish, not just here, but in the A-10 Tourney as well. Something else these teams have in common is lots of Unders. Saint Louis has gone Under in its last seven games while UMass is 5-0 Under its last five. The Minutemen are off a 75-69 loss at Richmond where they never led and shot just 25.9% from three-point range. It was only their second loss in the last seven games though. Saint Louis won on Friday, ironically against Richmond, 72-67 as they not only shot exceptionally well (54.5% from 3-pt range), but also played great defense (held Richmond to 24 first half points). Despite the recent rash of Unders from both teams, I see this one sneaking Over the total. UMass has five double digit scorers and is averaging 76.8 points per game. Saint Louis averages 78.9 PPG at home. The Billikens may not shoot the ball as well here as they did in their last game, but the Minutemen should see improved shooting from their performance against Richmond. Saint Louis is also a beast on the boards and should get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight. The Over is 6-0 in UMass’ last six Monday games. 10* Over UMass/Saint Louis |
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02-27-21 | Nikita Krylov v. Magomed Ankalaev OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev (10:15 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) bout scheduled for three rounds on the main card. While we may not get to the scorecards here, I do think this fight will make it at least halfway to the distance as the 27-7 Krylov takes on the 14-1 Ankalaev. Go with the Over 1.5 rounds. Magomed Ankalaev suffered a shocking defeat in his UFC debut when he submitted with just one second left in the fight against Paul Craig. Since then (March ‘18), he’s been on a roll, winning five in a row with four finishes, three of them coming in the first round. Ankalaev’s 2020 was odd as he fought Ion Cutelaba twice. The first fight ended in just 38 seconds due to some questionable officiating. The second did go a bit longer, but still ended in Round 1. Still, I expect Ankalaev to have a tougher time here. Krylov also had a misleading UFC debut when he gassed badly late in the fight and lost Soa Palelei. That was all the way back in 2013. After dropping two of his first three UFC fights, Krylov finally started to gain “momentum” by winning 9 of his next 10, all by stoppage. But he’s slowed down a bit the L2+ years, splitting his last four fights (2-2 record) and the last two have gone to decision. Krylov is not easy to finish though and it will take time for Ankalaev, if he is able to do it at all. Krylov’s best bet here is to try and wear down his opponent over the course of three rounds. 10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev |
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02-27-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 225.5 | Top | 126-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for OKC here. They beat Atlanta last night, 118-109. It was an odd game that saw both teams wearing very similar color jerseys at first. The Thunder made a “wardrobe change” at halftime and it seemed to work, although it was the first half that saw them shoot 60% from the field. I highly doubt we’ll see that kind of shooting again from them and not just because they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency and 27th in points per game. Their four games previous to last night all stayed Under the total. So will this one. Denver has had its own issues lately, though not wardrobe related. They’ve lost four of six to fall back into eighth place in the Western Conference. That’s still a whole heck of a lot better than where Oklahoma City is at (12th), but the Nuggets were in the Conference Finals last season and expect to finish high. Ironically, I think they’re better than their record this year, something I did NOT believe to be the case each of the L2 seasons. These teams just met two weeks ago and the final score was 97-95 with Denver winning at home. They combined to miss 52 of 72 three-point attempts. A little known fact with the Nuggets is that they play at the third slowest tempo in the league, so there are a fewer number of possessions in their games and thus fewer chances to score. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have defended well, allowing an average of just 103 PPG. Three of Denver’s last four games would have stayed Under tonight’s total as would have seven of the last nine Thunder games. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder |
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02-27-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina UNDER 152.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Florida State/North Carolina (4:00 ET): Florida State’s reputation precedes itself here as the total is very high for this matchup with North Carolina. That’s due in large part to the Seminoles’ incredible run of Overs, which now stands at 11 straight games, a streak which dates all the way back to late December. Not to be outdone, UNC has been a “boon” for Over bettors as well. The Over is 3-0 their L3 and 8-3 their L11. When these teams met last month in Tallahassee, the ‘Noles won 82-75. However, it is notable that the O/U line in that first meeting was “only” 143.5. That’s a double digit difference compared to today’s O/U line. Obviously, an increase had to be expected. But I think the oddsmakers have gone a bit “overboard” on this one, possibly trying to “suck the public in.” This will be the highest O/U line for any FSU game this season while North Carolina has had only one higher and that was back in early December vs. Iowa, one of the highest scoring teams in the country that also isn’t great defensively. Florida State’s scoring average predictably dips on the road, so I don’t see them matching some of their recent point totals. They’ve only played five road games all season! Two of them marked their lowest scoring games of the year, a 77-67 loss at Clemson and a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina just got torched by Marquette, but that was after holding its three previous opponents all to 62 points or less. The Tar Heels are 12-5 Under following a game where they allowed 80+ points. 10* Under Florida State/North Carolina |
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02-26-21 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 222 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers are really reeling right now as Anthony Davis is hurt and they’ve lost four in a row. It was pretty clear watching Wednesday’s 114-89 loss to the Jazz that LeBron James is being forced to shoulder too much of the load and is overextended right now. Wednesday was also the third time in the last four games that the Lakers failed to score 100 points. That’s just terrible. On the bright side, the team has still managed to retain the top spot in the defensive efficiency ratings. Portland is also on a losing streak (three games) and dealing with injuries. They’ve been without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for a while now. At first, they were making due. But it now seems as if the injuries to two of the team’s three best players are starting to catch up. A bad sign for the Blazers is that they have already suffered six 20+ point losses this season. Another is that they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency rating. However, it was a close loss to Denver Tuesday night (111-106) and the game stayed Under. That’s the way I see this one going as well. Just too many injuries on both sides. The Lakers are probably getting Dennis Schroeder back, but by their own admission, the rotation is a mess right now. Portland actually held Denver to 42.6% shooting, a good sign. The Lakers are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss and 9-1 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. The Blazers are 18-13 SU on the year. 10* Under Blazers/Lakers |
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02-21-21 | Valparaiso v. Southern Illinois OVER 130.5 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Valparaiso/So Illinois (5:00 ET): Valpo came through for me in a big way earlier in the week, easily covering a massive 20.5-point spread against a very good Loyola Chicago team. The ATS result was never in doubt as the Crusaders allowed just 54 points in the game and held the Ramblers to 38.5% shooting. They actually led outright at the half. Still though, this is a team that hasn’t had much reason to celebrate recently as they’ve lost six of their last eight games to fall way off the pace in the Missouri Valley. Southern Illinois isn’t doing any better than Valpo this season. While the Salukis did manage to go 6-0 against the non-conference schedule, they didn’t really have any quality wins (Butler?) and are just 4-10 SU in conference play. They’ve failed to score even 60 points in any of the last four games, one of which they did manage to win (against last place Illinois State). It was another ugly shooting night earlier this week when SIU lost here in Carbondale to Missouri State by a score of 68-53. Despite all the low point totals posted by these two teams recently, I’m “holding my nose” and taking the Over in this one. When the total is 133 points or lower, Southern Illinois is 5-1 Over this season. The 53 points scored on Wednesday matched a season-low, set in the first game vs. Missouri State. For the year, the Salukis are averaging 68.5 PPG at home. The last time Valparaiso was held to 52 points and faced a different opponent the next time out, they went for 70 and that too was on the road (at N Iowa). 10* Over Valparaiso/Southern Illinois |
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02-20-21 | Derrick Lewis v. Curtis Blaydes OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
6* Over Lewis/Blaydes (10:15 ET): If not for Francis Ngannou, we’d likely be discussing Curtis Blaydes in a very different manner. The #2 ranked heavyweight in the UFC is 0-2 vs. Ngannou, but 14-0 in his career vs. everybody else with 10 TKOs. Blaydes is a massive favorite here to beat #4 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis, who comes in with a 24-7 career record, including 15-5 in the UFC. Being that it’s the main event, this fight is scheduled for five rounds. I think it easily goes Over 1.5. Lewis is on a three-fight win streak coming into Saturday. Two of those were by decision, but he did score a second round TKO over Alexey Oleynik back in August. While only six of Lewis’ 31 fights have gone to the scorecards, he hasn’t had one end in Round 1 since 2016. Only three of the previous 12 have stayed Under 1.5 rounds. Lewis’ only shot at pulling the upset here is probably landing one big punch in the late rounds as he’s not a very active striker. Only twice in his UFC career has he landed 50+ significant strikes in a fight. Blaydes will try to end things early here, but I think Lewis is going to be able to hold on for a while. Blaydes hasn’t fought since June - a decision victory over Alexander Volkoff - as he tested positive for COVID in November, thus delaying this fight. But even though he took down Volkoff 14 different times in that fight, demonstrating his incredible wrestling ability, an inability to finish was apparent. Yes, he did knock out Junior Dos Santos 13 months ago, but I don’t see that happening here. 6* Over Lewis/Blaydes |
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02-20-21 | Aleksei Oliynyk v. Chris Daukaus UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 17 m | Show |
7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus (9:00 ET): This is a battle of heavyweights who are 12 years apart in age. Chris Daukaus, who is 2-0 in the UFC and 10-3 in his career, is the young upstart and should be a 2:1 favorite by the time he steps into the cage Saturday night. His opponent is the 43-year old Alexey Oleynik, who is 8-5 in the UFC and 59-14-1 overall in what has been a busy career. This is a fight I don’t see going very long and thus I’m on the Under 1.5 rounds. Daukaus will almost certainly be looking for a knockout Saturday night. That’s how each of his last seven victories have come, including both here in the UFC, which have not made it out of the first round. After stopping Parker Porter last August, it only took 45 seconds for Daukaus to finish Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira in October. The issue for Daukaus is that he does not score the quick knockout, he hits the proverbial “wall” quickly. That could be a major issue against the submission specialist Oleynik. Oleynik fought a total of four times in 2018-19 and all four fights ended in the first round. Two were wins and two were losses. He fought three times in 2020 and the last time we saw him, he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis (who co-headlines this card) just 21 seconds into the second round. Just like Daukaus would seem susceptible to gassing and being submitted, Oleynik seems vulnerable to a quick knockout loss here. Only one of Daukaus’ previous eight fights have made it past the halfway point of the second round. 7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus |
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02-19-21 | Oakland v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 153.5 | Top | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee (6:00 ET): You would be correct for saying it feels like “we’ve been here before” with Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies started their season with a rash of Overs before we took them (and cashed) Under in a game against Detroit on December 26th. That game stayed Under despite going to OT. Oakland has largely remained an “Over team” this season and is now on its longest Over streak (5 straight games) since I played that Under two months ago. It’s time to go Under again on Friday. Milwaukee will also be entering this game on a 5-game Over streak. The last four have all been losses. The Panthers had the tough assignment of facing Wright State on the road last weekend and gave up 92 points in both games. The final scores were nearly identical as Milwaukee scored 81 and 82 in the two games. Two things killed the Panthers in the second game with Wright State. They sent the Raiders to the FT line 26 times (WSU went 24-26) and allowed them to hit 10 of 19 3PA. Truthfully, things were not much better in either department in the first game of the weekend. But Milwaukee isn’t facing Wright State tonight, they’re facing Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies don’t shoot the ball very well (41.3% overall) despite going Over all the time. The issue (for both teams) all year has been poor defense. But this looks like it will certainly close as the highest O/U line all year for Milwaukee and it’ll be right up there with the highest for Oakland, who is only 4-4 Over when the number is 150.0 or higher. 8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee |
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02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings UNDER 224 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Kings (10:05 ET): The Heat have lost three in a row. The Kings have lost four in a row. So something is going to have to give in the lone NBA matchup NOT being televised on TNT Thursday night. Placing the Heat at a disadvantage is the fact they played last night at Golden State where they lost 120-112 in overtime. But the Kings certainly weren’t as good as their record BEFORE going 0-4 SU/ATS L4 games (all at home). They have the third worst point differential in the Western Conference. It was 105-105 at the end of regulation last night for the Heat, a score that sends a “shiver” down my spine. That’s because it was the same exact score for Chicago-Indiana Monday night when overtime similarly ruined an Under play I had. The fact that last night’s game stayed Under by double digits in regulation absolutely should be accounted for here. I know the Kings are bad defensively, but Miami has failed to score more than 105 pts in regulation in four of its last five games. They are 27th in the league in scoring. Sacramento’s last three games have all gone Over the total as they’ve allowed 123, 124 and 136 points. Again, I know they are bad defensively. But this could be as favorable a matchup as they’ve gotten in a while at that end of the floor. When these teams met three weeks ago, it was a 105-104 final (Miami win) and neither team shot all that poorly. I don’t see why we should expect in excess of 15 more points scored the second time around. The Heat are 7-3 Under in non-conference games. 10* Under Heat/Kings |
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02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 231.5 | Top | 126-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Over Blazers/Pelicans (9:05 ET): The Blazers have moved into a fourth-place tie (w/ Phoenix) in the Western Conference standings. They won their fifth in a row last night, beating Oklahoma City 115-104. Damian Lillard led the way with 31 points, 12 of those coming in the fourth quarter. That Portland has continued to win in the face of two key injuries (McCollum, Nurkic) is pretty impressive, but let’s see how they do here in the second night of a back to back. They are 5-0 ATS during the 5-game win streak. New Orleans is just outside the top 10 in the West right now, although they have scored more points than they’ve allowed. That’s thanks to an impressive 144-113 win in Memphis last night, the fifth straight Pelicans game to go Over the total. These games aren’t just “sneaking” over either; they’re FLYING over. There have been three separate times in the five games that NO has scored at least 130 points. They even lost one of them! They’ve allowed 123 or more points three times as well. Seeing as Portland is 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, this has all the makings of another high-scoring Pelicans’ game. The teams haven’t met in roughly a year, but the last two times produced combined point totals of 243 and 255. Both were Pelicans’ victories as they averaged 133 PPG. They shot 61% last night, including 19 of 38 from three. The previous three games saw them ALLOW an alarming shooting percentage of more than 55%. The Over is 11-3 in games where the Pelicans are favored. 10* Over Blazers/Pelicans |
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02-17-21 | DePaul v. Seton Hall OVER 138.5 | Top | 52-60 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has gone Under in 10 straight games. The most recent was their lowest scoring yet, a 57-47 home loss to Providence. The Blue Demons are really struggling to shoot the ball right now as they have a field goal percentage well below 40% the L4 games. That number has GOT to improve. Tonight they are at Seton Hall, a team they scored 68 against earlier in the season while shooting 41.7%. That game was actually early in DePaul’s Under streak, but it’s certainly worth noting that the total for the rematch is 10 points lower. Meanwhile, Seton Hall will be going for a fourth straight win tonight. They beat Marquette 57-51 here at home on Sunday, So both teams are coming off REALLY low-scoring games. Seton Hall shot just 37% vs. Marquette, but was at 52% when they beat DePaul last month. The Pirates have an excellent shot at winning out, which would greatly improve their NCAA Tournament chances, presuming they don’t “flame out” in the Big East Tourney. I know there’s not much recent evidence to support it, but I do see this game going Over the total. DePaul could be missing two of its top scorers, but this is a REALLY low total and Seton Hall scored 80 points two games ago. DePaul gives up 76.5 PPG on the road, which is key, and if Seton Hall can get to 80 tonight (very doable), then we’re in good shape. The first meeting would have gone Over this total. A 10-point shift in the O/U line is A LOT. 8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall |
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02-16-21 | Nets v. Suns OVER 230 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Nets/Suns (10:35 ET): This should be a fun one from Phoenix Tuesday night on TNT. The Suns are most definitely a “team on the rise” (see what I did there) in the Western Conference as they are currently 4th in the standings. Their ascension really began last August in the bubble when they won every game. That may not have been enough to make the playoffs last season, but I’d bank on there being postseason basketball in the desert in 2021, which would be the 1st time that's happened in 11 years. Brooklyn is a team that believes it can win a NBA Championship. They’ve won three straight while also covering the spread against Indiana, Golden State and Sacramento. However, even with that win streak, the Nets are still only 17-12 SU and third in the Eastern Conference. This West Coast trip has definitely gotten off to a high-scoring start as the team has topped 130 points in both wins. The Nets now lead the league in scoring (121.4 PPG), but defense is an issue as only the Wizards and Kings allow more points per game. They just faced the Kings last night and a total of 261 total points were scored! So it shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the Nets are one of the league’s top Over teams. They have the second highest Over percentage for the season (21-8) and only three of their previous 23 games have stayed Under. Not to be outdone, Phoenix is shooting a blistering 51.6% its last five games and has won six straight. While three of those wins have required no more than 109 points, it’s a MUCH different matchup tonight and even with Kevin Durant not playing, this game is likely to go Over. 10* Over Nets/Suns |
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02-15-21 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 228 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:05 ET): Indiana had a big fourth quarter (41 points) Saturday night and wound up picking up a road win in Atlanta. They outscored the Hawks 27-7 down the stretch en route to a final score of 125-113. Meanwhile, Chicago is off a loss to the Clippers (125-106 as 7-point underdogs) where they couldn’t come close to the shooting from their previous game (made franchise record 25 three-pointers in a 129-116 win over New Orleans on Wednesday). Let’s talk about what to expect here. Prior to winning in Atlanta, the Pacers’ previous four games had all gone Under. In two of the games, both losses, they were held under 100 points. So what we saw Saturday, especially in the fourth quarter, is NOT something you should expect here tonight. The Pacers have now won two straight, but before that had lost six of seven. The one win was high scoring (134-116 against Memphis), but they immediately came back “down to Earth” in the next game and scored just 110. That’s what I expect to transpire tonight. Chicago hasn’t beaten Indiana in awhile. They’ve lost the last TEN meetings, a streak which goes all the way back to the start of 2018. The last four times these division rivals have met, the game has gone Over. This includes a 125-106 Indiana win the day after X-Mas. But, as already alluded to, I anticipate this game being lower-scoring. The Pacers shot almost 56% from the field in that last meeting, which won’t happen again. Nor will the Bulls make 41% from three-point range again. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers |
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02-13-21 | Anthony Hernandez v. Rodolfo Vieira UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Hernandez/Vieira (9:40 ET): This is a fight in the middleweight division (185 lbs), scheduled for three rounds. Vieira is a prohibitive favorite here (nearly -400 on the money line as of this writing) and for good reason as he comes in with a 7-0 career record, including 2-0 in the UFC. Hernandez is 7-2 in his career, but just 1-2 in the UFC. Oddsmakers expect this bout to be over in pretty short order and I agree. I’ll take the Under 1.5 rounds here, meaning there will be a winner before the halfway point of Round 2. Vieria has an impressive background in Brazilian ju-jitsu and a solid submission game. He has finished all seven opponents he’s faced, six of them by submission, and five of the seven fights have ended in the first round. Only one has made it to the third round. It was an arm-triangle choke that got the win in both UFC fights, first against Oskar Piechota in August of ‘19, then against Saparbek Safarov in March of last year. My only concern about him is that he did absorb some punishment from Safarov and isn’t particularly great when on his feet. Keeping this fight standing is probably the only viable path Hernandez has to victory here. The problem is he is often TOO aggressive and is likely to be taken down with ease. Once that happens, it’s over. I see Vieira getting Hernandez down and finishing this one early, but the beauty of taking the Under is that if Hernandez gets a “lucky punch,” it’s just as good. None of Hernandez’s three UFC fights have made it to the third round and he was TKO’d in just 39 seconds (by Kevin Holland) his last time out. Seven of his 10 career fights have ended in Round 1. 8* Under Hernandez/Vieira |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns OVER 225.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
10* Over 76ers/Suns (3:05 ET): Phoenix comes into this game on a 4-game win streak. All four wins were at home and they’ve covered the spread every time out. The most impressive of the four victories came Wednesday when the Suns erased a 16-point deficit and beat Milwaukee 125-124. There is no doubt that this is an ascendent team in the Western Conference, after last year’s incredible performance in the “bubble” and current 4th place standing. No one will want to face them in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is the first place team in the Eastern Conference as they own an 18-8 SU record. But they did just drop a game in Portland the other night, as 5.5-point favorites, 118-114. I’d previously taken them in Sacramento (that was my 10* Game of the Week) and they came from behind in the 4th quarter there to win 119-111. The Sixers’ only two losses in the L8 games both came against Portland (weird) and over the L7 they’ve managed to score at least 114 points six times, which is their season average. This total looks a little low to me. The last four times the teams have played, the Over has hit. There have been more than 230 total pts scored in each of the teams’ last two games. The Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight games following a SU win. The Over is also 13-6 in the Sixers’ L19 games, including 5-2 on the road. 10* Over 76ers/Suns |
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02-13-21 | Western Carolina v. Furman OVER 147.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
9* Over Western Carolina/Furman (2:00 ET): Both of these sides have gone Under in six straight games. Those respective six-game streaks include one head to head matchup, which Furman won 75-69 back on January 30th. Since then, the Paladins have actually dropped two of three and Wednesday saw them score a season-low 58 points in a loss to UNC Greensboro where they shot just 31.6% from the field. Look for them to rediscover the “shooting touch” though as today they are back at home where they are averaging 86.1 PPG! Western Carolina is at the bottom of the SoCon standings, but ironically the Catamounts are off a win here. They defeated VMI 74-72 in what was the team’s best single-game defensive effort in awhile. Still though, they’ve allowed 70 or more points in 15 of the last 16 games and are giving up 77.7 PPG for the season. On the road, that number jumps to 81.8 PPG. On the bright side, Western Carolina is averaging MORE points per game on the road (77.2) than at home. In the first meeting, the total closed at 154. It’s several points lower here, opening up some real value. This looks like it will end up as the lowest O/U line for a Western Carolina game in some time, perhaps as far back as December 30th. Their games are averaging 153.9 PPG this season while Furman games average 148.3. The Paladins shoot a blistering 52.3% from the field at home as well. I fully expect them to score 80+ today and if that happens, it should make for an easy Over. 9* Over Western Carolina/Furman |
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02-12-21 | Bucks v. Jazz OVER 232.5 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Bucks/Jazz (9:05 ET): It’s a shame this game ISN’T on ESPN Friday night as we’ve got the team with the best record in the league (Utah) facing the team I feel is still the best in the Eastern Conference (Milwaukee). The Jazz have won 16 of their last 17 games and are very much “for real” as they possess the NBA’s best net efficiency rating. Their record shouldn’t be that surprising, considering the fact they’ve been favored in all but two of their 25 games this season. Now Milwaukee can claim to have the league’s point differential. They’ve outscored the opposition by nearly 10 PPG this season. That tells me they are very likely to eventually overtake the Sixers for the top spot in the East as I firmly believe scoring differential to be a strong indicator of future outcomes. The Bucks are off a loss though, 125-124 at Phoenix Wednesday, a game in which they blew a 16-point lead. This will mark the first time all season that they have been an underdog. We’ve got two of the top four efficient offenses meeting here on Friday night, so expect plenty of points. The Bucks have scored 123 or more points in six consecutive games and no, there’s been no overtime during that stretch. Of course, they are averaging 121.4 PPG for the season. Utah’s defense has been really good, especially at home, but containing the Bucks can prove problematic. The Jazz have scored at least 112 in seven of their last eight games. When the teams met in Milwaukee last month, it was a 131-118 Jazz victory and the shooting (on both sides) wasn’t all that great. The Bucks are 4-0 Over on the road when the total is 230 or higher. 10* Over Bucks/Jazz |
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02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 223 | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Raptors/Celtics (7:35 ET): Toronto put 137 points on the board last night. It was their fifth consecutive game topping 120 and 7th in a row to go Over the total. But they were also facing the Wizards, who are as inept defensively as any team in this league. Tonight, on no rest, the Raptors must head into Boston. The Celtics should force this into being a lower-scoring game as they are allowing the second fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Conference right now. I’m going Under here. Boston enters this game off a loss as they were beaten 122-108 by the red hot Jazz Tuesday night. That was the end of a disappointing 2-3 “West Coast” swing for the Celtics as they had no answers down the stretch. Utah, who has the best record in the league, ended the game on a 14-4 run. It was the most points given up by the Celtics in any game since 1/22 and just the fifth time all season that they allowed 120 or more. The good news (for us) is that the Under has gone 16-5-1 in Celtics’ games when the team is coming off a road trip of at least 7 days. This looks to be one of the highest O/U lines for any Celtics game this season. Previous to this, only three of their home games have had a total of 220 or higher. That makes sense given Toronto’s recent offensive numbers, but the Raptors aren’t going to make 19 three-pointers again as they did last night. They’ve faced some BAD defensive teams lately, which partly explains the rash of Overs we’ve seen from their games. It ends here. 10* Under Raptors/Celtics |
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02-10-21 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Mavs (7:35 ET): I cashed the Over when these teams met last week in Atlanta. At the time, Dallas was on a six-game losing streak and totally desperate for a win. They’ve now won three of their last four and every one of those games have gone Over the total. Since beating the Hawks 122-116, the Mavs split a pair of games with Golden State and then defeated Minnesota 127-122 Monday night. They’ve averaged 124.75 points these L4 games and have scored at least 116 in all of them. Atlanta also is off a win. They had previously lost three in a row with two sub-100 point games before cruising to a high-scoring, 132-121 win over Toronto on Saturday. The three days off before this rematch were always “on the books;” this was not a case of COVID-19 postponing any games. The only previous time the Hawks played with this much rest was on 1/15 at Utah and that game did not go well as they lost 116-92. I am expecting a lot more points here from two teams that both topped 125 in their last games. The Hawks shot 50% from the floor in last week’s meeting, but that wasn’t enough to overcome 27 points from Luka Doncic and a 69-point second half from the Mavericks, who made 23 of 25 free throws. The teams also combined to make 27 three-pointers. Atlanta has been more of an “Under team” this year, especially on the road, but just shot a blistering 56.8% from the field in their last game. Dallas has not only scored 116+ in each of the L4 games, they’ve also given up at least 116 in all four. 10* Over Hawks/Mavs |
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02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 139.5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech (9:00 ET): When these teams met on January 25th, they combined for 175 total points in an 88-87 WVU win. When I say “that’s a little bit shocking,” I’m definitely not referring to the fact the Mountaineers were able to pull out a win in Morgantown. No, it was shocking that they combined for that many points. Texas Tech is always considered one of the premier defensive teams in the entire country and this season has been no different as they are allowing just 61.7 points per game. Here at home, that number drops down to 56.5. So I expect this sequel to feature a lot less scoring than the “original.” In that first meeting, WVU shot a blistering 57.7% overall from the field, including 12 of 19 on three-pointers. Again, that just doesn’t happen when you’re facing Texas Tech. It’s not like WVU is a great shooting team. They make only 42.9% for the year. The 12 made threes were way more than their season average of 7.3 per game. With the change in home court advantage, expect different results this time as TT is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.9% from behind the arc in Lubbock. West Virginia had another hot shooting game Saturday as they beat Kansas 91-79. That was their fourth straight game to go Over the total, a streak which began with the win over Texas Tech. But I remain adamant that the Mountaineers were cool off here. The Red Raiders also shot 50% from three-point range in their last game, but that was against a lousy Kansas State squad. They’ve had a couple sub-36.0% shooting efforts recently. It takes some “chutzpah” to expect 40 less points this time around, but I’ll do it. 8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show |
8* Under Chiefs/Bucs (6:30 ET): So when these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 961 yards and all nine scoring drives went for at least 64 yards. Both offenses averaged 7.5 yards per play. Yet they finished with only 51 total points. That’s still a lot, but wasn’t enough to go Over a total of 59.0. While the stakes are much higher the second time around, the total is lower. But it’s still the second highest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The only one larger was four years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons. That game would have stayed Under had it not been for the Pats rallying from a 28-3 deficit to force overtime. Since ‘95, no SB w/ an OU line of 54.0 or higher has gone Over in regulation (5-0 Under). This game is being played in the Buccaneers’ home stadium. That doesn’t mean as much as it would in a “normal” year, but it’s worth noting the Bucs averaged fewer points per game at home than they did on the road this season. Those eight games averaged 52.4 PPG. Chiefs’ road games averaged more total points than their home games (54.6 PPG), but that’s still just below the O/U line here. Going back to the regular season matchup (which was here in Tampa), the Chiefs scored 17 first quarter points and Tyreke Hill had 13 catches for 269 yards. None of that will happen again. The Bucs are #1 in the league against the run and their defense really dominated the Packers up front in the NFC Championship Game. Like Green Bay, Kansas City is dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Obviously, everyone is going to expect a shootout on Sunday and will want to bet the Over, but like last year I’m going Under. The last two Super Bowls have gone Under. The Under is 22-9 since 2015 in Tom Brady starts where the total was 50+. 8* Under Chiefs/Bucs |
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02-07-21 | Wizards v. Hornets OVER 235 | Top | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Hornets (1:05 ET): Washington has now been back on the court for eight games since their two-week hiatus due to COVID-19. They’ve won only twice, both times by just three points. One of those wins I was on. It was the wild 149-146 win over Brooklyn last Sunday. While the Wizards easily covered (+9), it was a game they probably should have lost. The only other win came Wednesday, again as nine-point underdogs, 103-100 over Miami. The Wiz subsequently lost to the Heat 122-95 on Friday. Charlotte has been better than I’d anticipated so far as they’re a respectable 10-13 SU. They’ve been an underdog in 17 of the 23 games. They’re coming in off B2B losses, both here at home, as they faced Philadelphia and Utah. Those were a couple tough opponents, so you can’t really be surprised at the end results. Still, you have to be concerned any time a team gives up 138 points like the Hornets did Friday against the Jazz. It was their fourth consecutive game to go Over the total. For Washington, Bradley Beal opened the last game by missing his first 13 shots. Needless to say, I don’t think we’ll see that again. Beal leads the league in scoring at 33.3 PPG. The Hornets’ last five opponents have averaged 117.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting. You should also expect the Wizards to give up plenty of points here as well. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Charlotte has topped 120 in three of its last four games and is 4th in the conference in fast break points. Washington is #1 in the league in pace. 10* Over Wizards/Hornets |
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans UNDER 227.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans (9:05 ET): It was a razor-thin win with the Under (half-point!) on the Pelicans’ matchup with the Pacers last night, but I’m coming right back with the same bet again Saturday as they turn around and host the Grizzlies. As discussed in yday’s analysis, New Orleans had been going Over a lot recently; 8 of 9 games prior to last night. Friday also marked the first time in 15 games that the Pelicans won without scoring 123 or more points. Look for their play on the defensive end to continue to improve here. Memphis opened February with a dominating 133-102 win in San Antonio. It was their seventh consecutive win at the time. But now they’ve dropped two in a row, 134-116 at Indiana and 115-103 at home vs. Houston. The hideous defensive effort against the Pacers came on the second night of a back to back. But there was no such excuse for the loss to the Rockets, which surprised me. I should point out that the Grizzlies' games are averaging “just” 219.1 PPG this season, which is comfortably below the total here. This will be just the second back to back for the Pelicans so far this season. The first was last Saturday and did not go well as they gave up 126 in a 14-point loss to the Rockets. Expect a better defensive effort this time around though. Despite allowing the Pacers to hit 20 of 42 three-point attempts, the Pelicans only allowed 113 points, which isn’t all that bad. Six of the last seven meetings with Memphis have stayed Under. I also don’t think the Pelicans are going to shoot as well as they have the last two games (around 52%). When the Grizzlies won those seven straight games, they were allowing an average of just 104.3 PPG. Look for them to get back to playing defense as well. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans |
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02-05-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
8* Under Pelicans/Pacers (7:05 ET): The Pelicans come into this game off a 123-101 win against Phoenix. That was arguably their best effort in weeks. It was just the fourth win in the last 14 games and what’s interesting there is they’ve scored 123 or more in all four victories. They are 0-10 when not hitting that benchmark. Tonight they’ve got to like their chances against an Indiana team that just gave up 130 on Wednesday, but that was to Milwaukee. I don’t see New Orleans getting to 123 points tonight. The Pacers are just 4-6 SU their last 10 games after the blowout loss to the Bucks 48 hours ago. What’s so disappointing is not just that they trailed by as many as 40 points in Milwaukee, but they were coming off a 134-point effort against a previously red hot Memphis team the night prior. It was the worst defensive effort of the season vs. the Bucks, in terms of points allowed in the first half and a game. They also let Milwaukee hit 21 three-pointers, the most EVER by a Pacers’ opponent. You’ve got to bank on the idea that Indiana will come out and play better defense tonight. Obviously, both teams have been going Over a lot recently. Indiana in three straight games, New Orleans in 8 of its last 9. As a result, the O/U line tonight is much higher than it was when these teams played last month (216). That game went Over, but only did so because of overtime. The Under is 20-8 for Indiana coming off a game where they allowed 125+ points. Their games have averaged 226.1 PPG this season, which is just under where this number is. Pelicans’ games are at 223.5. I think we’re heading for a surprisingly “low-scoring game” here. 8* Under Pelicans/Pacers |
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02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks OVER 223.5 | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): I have to say that I’m a bit shocked to see Dallas on a six-game losing streak. Coming into the season, this is a team I expected to battle for a top four spot in the Western Conference. Instead, they are languishing closer to the bottom of the standings with an 8-12 SU record and a lot of “finger-pointing.” Just a few days ago, PG Luka Doncic went on record and said it was “looking like we didn’t care.” The Mavs better start caring or the rest of the West will leave them behind. Over in the Eastern Conference, Atlanta is a pretty nice story as they’ve climbed their way into the top six and look like one of the most improved teams in the entire league this season. They did come up short here at home against the Lakers Monday night, losing 107-99, but certainly no one is going to fault them for losing to LeBron and company. While “only” .500 on the season (10-10 SU), the Hawks have a positive point differential and efficiency rating, so they are “going places.” Most of these losses for Dallas have been close with the most recent (109-108 vs. Phoenix) being decided on a Devin Booker jumper with 1.5 seconds remaining. I still have faith that they’ll eventually turn things around. As for this game, look for both them and the Hawks to increase their scoring from the respective last games. The Mavs led the NBA in offensive efficiency last season, yet have not broken 110 in four consecutive games. Atlanta has been an “Under team” as well, but has seen an uptick in the L5 games. They are 12-2 to the Over L14 games as a home dog. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks |
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02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets UNDER 243.5 | Top | 120-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): With three of the top stars in the game (Durant, Irving, Harden), it certainly appears as if Brooklyn is going to test how far the oddsmakers are willing to go when it comes to setting O/U lines. Saturday vs. Washington, the number was 244, as high an O/U line as you’ll see. Still, the game went Over by more than 50 points as the Nets actually lost to the Wizards 149-147! I was happy with the result having taken the Wizards +7. Now I’m going to be even more daring. The Over is 15-1 in Brooklyn’s last 16 games. That’s pretty incredible, especially when you consider how high the O/U lines have been. Saturday’s was the highest yet. I suppose we’ll continue to see numbers north of 240, but to me this number is just too large. The Clippers are a lot better than the Wizards in all aspects of the game, but especially when it comes to playing defense. They allow just 106.7 PPG. Another key is tempo. The Clips play at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning only one team (New York) averages fewer possessions per game. Now the Clippers just faced the Knicks and the game ended up being a 129-115 final. So much for pace there. But the total was just 210, a far cry from what it is here. There’s a chance this will go off as the highest O/U line of the season to date in the entire NBA and that’s even with the number being bet down a few points since it opened. Nets’ games do average 239.9 total PPG this season, but that’s still below this number. Clippers’ games average “just” 221.2. The Under is 2-0 this season in Clippers’ games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Under Clippers/Nets |
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01-29-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Spurs (8:35 ET): Denver is looking to complete a perfect road trip tonight in San Antonio. They’ve won their last five games overall, covering the spread every time. This win streak has the Nuggets a solid 4th in the Western Conference standings, one game ahead of the 5th place Spurs, who are off a 110-106 win over Boston that took place here at home on Wednesday night. That was the Spurs’ second straight win and 8th in the last 12 games. Should be a competitive game tonight in the Alamo. Denver has a very efficient offense, ranking 4th in the league in points per possession. They have to be efficient because they are actually bottom four in pace (# of possessions per game). It was pretty easy Wednesday night against a Heat team that has been hit hard by COVID-19. The Nuggets enjoyed their largest halftime lead of the season (25 points) and held Miami to just 82 pts for the game. While known more as an “offensive team,” the Nuggets have held three of their last four opponents under 42% shooting for the game. With some of the recent Overs, note two of the games went to overtime. San Antonio probably isn’t going to shoot 56.1% from the field again like they did Wednesday against Boston. That they shot that well and still ended up with “only” 110 points is a little telling about the kind of game the Spurs wish to play. There was a stretch vs. Boston (end of 1st half) where they made 10 consecutive shots, including two layups in the last four seconds before halftime. Again, don’t see that happening again. Nor do I see the Spurs turning it over as much as they did (19 times) vs. the Celtics. Look for this to be a game with few possessions and solid defense. 10* Under Nuggets/Spurs |
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01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 213 | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Jazz (9:05 ET): The Knicks, on average, have produced the LOWEST scoring games in the league this season. The good news is that they are allowing the fewest number of points per game in the league at 103.6. The bad news is their own scoring average of 101.9 is also - by far - a league low. That combined game scoring average of 205.5 is a full 7.6 PPG lower than the next lowest team (Cleveland). I guess it shouldn’t be surprising then that the Under is 12-6 in all Knicks games this season. Utah has won eight in a row, the longest win streak that the league has seen so far in 2020-21. The Jazz have also covered the spread in all eight wins, so this is a team playing very well right now. They’ve clearly established themselves as the third best team in the West, behind only the two hailing from LA. In the last two games, they’ve scored 129 and 127 points. All but one of those eight consecutive victories have come by double digits. Shockingly, the Knicks are the last team to defeat Utah, having done so on January 6th at MSG by a score of 112-100. They were eight-point home dogs. Despite the score of the first meeting and the Knicks in general, I see tonight’s game “sneaking Over” the total. Utah is at home where they are averaging a very solid 114.6 PPG. They only shot 44% for the game on Jan 6 and missed 30 of 44 three-point attempts. That won’t happen again here. It is worth mentioning that despite only losing by three on Saturday to Portland, the Knicks trailed by as many as 25. They also trailed Utah by 18 before coming back to win. This is a really low total and while it matches the total # of points scored in the first meeting, it’s difficult to imagine there won’t be more points scored this time around. 10* Over Knicks/Jazz |
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01-25-21 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 217.5 | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Sixers/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played on Saturday and it was Philadelphia picking up a 114-110 win here in the Motor City. They did not cover the spread (were -8.5), yet will certainly take the SU win as it improved their overall record to 12-5 (#1 in the East). The Sixers have won three straight as well as five of the last six. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ve got the Pistons, who are a league-worst 3-13 SU. That’s not a shock (were projected to finish last in the East prior to the start of the year) and they’ve now lost their last four games. Things were a bit higher-scoring than expected on Saturday as the teams combined to take 68 free throws and the Pistons made 14 three-pointers. Both numbers are certainly atypical. On average, these teams combine to average just 49 FT’s per game. The Pistons do actually average 13 three-point makes per game, but it was the percentage (42.8%) that was high on Saturday. Detroit comes into tonight shooting just 40.2% from the field (on all attempts) at home. Philly has a top three defensive efficiency rating in the league, so they shouldn’t have much difficulty slowing down a Pistons team that is averaging only 105.6 PPG at home. Detroit was widely expected to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season and that’s “bearing fruit.” They have an effective field goal percentage below 50% on the year, one of only three teams that can say that. Meanwhile, the Sixers average only 105.7 PPG on the road, so this shapes up to be a low-scoring game. Joel Embiid, who had 33 points Saturday, is listed as questionable to play. 8* Under Sixers/Pistons |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -103 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here. I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers |
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01-24-21 | Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 110 h 36 m | Show |
7* Under Poirier/McGregor (11:59 ET): Conor McGregor is unsurprisingly a big favorite here and the ML price figures to get even steeper by the time these two fighters hit the cage. I’ve heard many respected MMA minds talking about how there is no way Dustin Poirier should be this big of an underdog and they do have a point. But who am I to doubt McGregor? This lightweight (155 lbs) fight is scheduled for five rounds, but I don’t see any way this thing gets close to going the distance. I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. The first time these two fought was over six years ago and McGregor ended things with a first round TKO in just 106 seconds. The expectation now is that Poirier is going to be a much “tougher out” as McGregor has tasted defeat twice since that win, losing to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. We faded him in the Nurmagomedov fight, but he has since bounced back a 40 second knockout of Donald Cerrone almost exactly one year ago. There have been only three times in his career that a McGregor fight has made it to the third round: the loss to Nurmagomedov, the win in the rematch with Nate Diaz and a decision over Max Holloway back in 2013. I think it would be foolish to expect this fight to go long, let alone the distance. Poirier is 10-2 (w/ one NC) since his loss to McGregor to improve to 26-6 in his career (18-5 in UFC). My guess is that if he is able to “shock the world” and win here, it would be by early knockout, not grinding out a decision. Both fighters are going to come out looking to strike. The threat of a McGregor knockout is always very real, but Poirier’s striking has improved since the first fight, so there’s always a chance he gets “lucky.” But I’ve seen too many of these McGregor fights not to expect a first round stoppage. 7* Under Poirier/McGregor |
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01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Warriors/Jazz (9:05 ET): Right now, Utah clearly looks like the best Western Conference team outside the city of Los Angeles. They’ve won seven in a row and furthermore covered the number in all seven wins. Five of those games have seen them shoot 50% or better from the field and that’s in addition to posting a top five defensive efficiency rating for the season. Prior to a 129-118 win against New Orleans Thursday night, they’d held five consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Golden State has obviously improved after last year’s injury-riddled disaster, but they may never again ascend to the championship heights of the five seasons before that. A 119-104 loss to the Knicks on Thursday leaves the Warriors at 8-7 SU and in ninth place in the West. That was a disappointing loss Thursday considering the Dubs were off a very impressive effort the night prior when they defeated San Antonio 121-99 as a 1-point home favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week! The Dubs simply aren’t the same explosive offensive team we became accustomed to seeing under Steve Kerr. They are in the bottom third of offensive efficiency and shooting just 42.7% on the road this season. They connected at only 38.4% vs. the Knicks and that was at home. I mentioned Utah’s recent hot shooting at the top, but the good news for Golden State is that they haven’t let any opponent shoot 50% from the field since December 27th. The Under is 10-4 this season in Warriors’ games and 2-0 in Jazz’ games when the total is 220.0 or higher. 10* Under Warriors/Jazz |
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01-23-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 124 | Top | 50-61 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss (3:30 ET): I think we’ve hit a tipping point here where these teams are set to go Over the total. To be clear, the Aggies and Rebels have combined to go 21-4 Under this season while consistently producing low-scoring games. But this is the lowest O/U line to date (for either side) as oddsmakers were forced to react. It will be just the second game for A&M with a total lower than 130 points and the first for Ole Miss. Look for this one to “sneak Over” a very low total. While A&M comes into this game Saturday on a 9-game Under streak, several of those would have actually gone Over this O/U line. Four to be exact and it’s worth noting that only one of them has seen fewer than 122 total points scored, so that’s close. After losing 68-52 to Missouri last Saturday, the Aggies had their game vs. Vanderbilt postponed Tuesday. So they may not be as sharp defensively here. Ole Miss held rival Miss State to just 46 points Tuesday, but before that they’d allowed over 70 in three consecutive contests. Their own scoring has dipped in SEC play, however, they are still averaging 71.2 PPG on the year and getting to that number today would almost ensure this game going Over. As I said earlier, this is the lowest O/U line either team has seen this season and in the case of the Rebels, only the last one was close. 9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss |
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01-18-21 | Newcastle United v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal (3:00 ET): After winning four in a row across all competitions, Arsenal had to settle for a scoreless draw with Crystal Palace on Thursday, leaving the Gunners 11th in the Premier League table. On the bright side, it was a fourth consecutive clean sheet, a pretty remarkable run for a side that was struggling in the early part of the campaign. While it’s still going to take a lot to catch those at the top of the table, a full three points should be expected here as they face a Newcastle United club they recently down in FA Cup action. Newcastle suffered a humiliating defeat its last time out, 1-0 against previously winless Sheffield United. That loss came on the back of the 2-0 loss to Arsenal in the FA Cup. Not only are they winless in their last six across all competitions, Newcastle has been kept clean in four of their last five matches. This has prompted manager Steve Bruce to consider a change in strategy and you may now see only four back on defense, rather than five. While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Newcastle sits 15th in the table. I expect them to be a lot more aggressive here. The aggressive nature is still unlikely to translate into victory, but I expect the Magpies to at least get on the scoresheet. The flip side of the aggressive approach is that they may open themselves up for more Arsenal scoring. The Gunners have won five straight over the Magpies, keeping them clean in the last four. That’s a streak I can’t see continuing. A 2-1 Arsenal win is the most likely outcome here and I’ll take the Over. 10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings UNDER 227 | Top | 128-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Pelicans/Kings (9:05 ET): Sacramento’s defense has been so bad that it almost has “no choice” but to improve. The Kings are dead last in the league in a variety of defensive categories and as a result are just 5-8 SU on the year. They have allowed 122 or more points in seven straight games and the last two they gave up 132 and 138. That makes tonight’s play on the Under quite the “contrarian” call, but I’ve got reason to believe the new defensive system that HC Luke Walton is implementing will start to take hold. New Orleans is not a great offensive team. They are averaging just 105.9 PPG for the season, which is 28th (third worst) in the league. On Friday, they were held under 100 points for the fourth time this season despite shooting better than 60% in the 1st half. Now they were facing the Lakers, who are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Kings in terms of defense. But still, scoring 37 points in a half is really bad (which is what the Pelicans did in the 2H vs. LA). They are 5-1 Under on the road so far this season. That game vs. the Lakers stayed Under the total as did the Pelicans’ first five games of the season. In between that, they went Over in five straight. But tonight will mark the highest O/U line for them since the third game of the season. Sacramento has been facing some very good offensive teams of late, which is why the Over is 6-1 their L7 games. But they’re not facing a good offensive team here. Also, the Kings have scored 100 or less in two of their last four games. New Orleans can hold them to a low number too as they rank in the upper half of the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Bucs/Saints (6:40 ET): The two regular season meetings between these teams produced 57 and 41 points. New Orleans won both handily, 34-23 and 38-3. The amount of scoring that took place in the first meeting (which was all the way back in Week 1) was a bit misleading when you consider the Saints got a defensive TD (pick-six) and two other scoring drives began inside the 35-yard line following TB turnovers.That’s why I took the Under in the rematch on November 8th, which cashed easily. The O/U line isn’t much different here and while the final score may not end up as lopsided, the number of total points will be similar. Going into that second meeting, New Orleans had a 7-0 Over record on the season. Since then, they’ve gone Under in 7 of 10 games including last week’s 21-9 Wild Card win against Chicago. The only TD the Saints allowed came on the final play of the game, a “garbage time” score if there ever was one. They held the Bears to just 239 total yards. While the Bucs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Bears, note that two of the Bucs’ three lowest yardage games this season came against the Saints. They averaged just 252 YPG in the two losses. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, New Orleans is top five in total and scoring defense this year. But Tampa Bay has a good defense too. In fact, they are #1 in the league at stopping the run, which comes in handy when facing Alvin Kamara. While they won easily, it’s not like the Saints’ offense was moving up and down the field last week. They’ve been held below 300 total yards four different times this season and three of those were with Drew Brees starting under center. One of them was in Week 1. The Saints’ last four playoff games have all gone Under. These teams are obviously familiar with one another and I expect a relatively low-scoring third meeting. 8* Under Bucs/Saints |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs |
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01-16-21 | Li Jingliang v. Santiago Ponzinibbio OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 220 h 38 m | Show |
6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li (4:00 ET): This is a fight at 170lbs (welterweight), scheduled for three rounds and it will take place on the main card on ABC. I see it making it well into the second round, if not to the scorecards. All we need is to hit the halfway mark of Round 2 to cash this bet. I think we get there. Santiago Ponzinibbio is coming off a long layoff, for a litany of reasons. Injuries, a life-threatening staph infection and COVID-19 make this the first time he’ll be stepping back in the cage since November 2018. That’s over two years ago. My guess is we’re going to see a bit of an apprehensive start from him. Ponzinibbio is a veteran with a 27-3 career record and he’s won his last seven fights. So I don’t see him making many mistakes either. Three of his last five fights have gone to decision and one of the two that didn’t was a five-round fight that ended in fourth. Jingliang Li comes in at 17-6 and could be a sneaky underdog here. But he too is known for slow starts to his fights. The first Chinese UFC fighter, Li has been a little inconsistent through his time with the promotion. He’s coming off a decision loss to Neil Magny (who Ponzinibbio beat his last time out) in March. So he too has not fought since the pandemic. Not to beat a dead horse, but I just get a feeling this fight is gonna get off to a slow start. Three of Li’s last five fights have gone to decision as well. 6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li |
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01-15-21 | Hawks v. Jazz OVER 224 | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Jazz (9:05 ET): After having their previous game postponed, Atlanta finally takes the court again Friday night as they’ll travel to face Utah. Last we saw the Hawks was Monday when they snapped a four-game losing streak by defeating the Sixers 112-94. Early on, the Hawks were REALLY flying high as they got off to a 4-1 SU/ATS start to the season. But then they crashed back down with the aforementioned four-game slide - two of the losses vs. Charlotte - and all as favorites. They should be more comfortable in the underdog role tonight as they are 3-0 ATS this season when getting points. Utah dominated Cleveland its last time out, winning by 30 (117-87) on the road. It was the second straight game where the Jazz held their opponent under 90 points and won. They beat Detroit 96-86 on Sunday. Such defensive efforts shouldn’t have been that surprising as the Pistons and Cavs are two of the worst offensive teams this league has to offer. Before the season, the Pistons were thought to be the worst offensive team in the league. It turns out that’s Cleveland, who is currently last in offensive efficiency by a mile. So it should be a much tougher chore at the defensive end tonight for Utah. The Hawks have averaged 121.2 points in five road games so far. While that number is skewed by a 141-point game vs. Brooklyn, look for the Hawks to hang a pretty big number here. They’ve gone Under in six straight, but many of those O/U lines were much larger than this one. They are 15-3 Over vs. Northwest Division teams. Utah also had its last game cancelled, so both teams come in fresh and ready to run. This should turn into a bit of a shootout w/ the Over being 35-17 the L52 times Atlanta has been an underdog. 10* Over Hawks/Jazz |
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01-15-21 | Mavs v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Mavs/Bucks (7:35 ET): These teams have “taken turns” leading the league in offensive efficiency the past two seasons (Bucks in 2018-19, Mavs in 2019-20) with the Bucks back on top so far this season. But I’m anticipating this Friday night ESPN matchup to be a bit more low-scoring than you might think. I just won with the Under on Milwaukee’s last game, a 110-101 win over the Pistons. They’ve now gone Under in three straight, allowing an average of just 96.7 PPG during that time. Dallas is tied with the Lakers for #1 in defensive efficiency while the Bucks aren’t far behind at #4 in that department. The Mavs come into tonight on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, which has seen them defeat Houston, Denver, Orlando and Charlotte. In each of the last two games, they’ve held the opposition below 100 points and both those games stayed Under. The Under is 7-3 in all Mavs’ games this season, which have averaged “only” 213.8 PPG or well below the O/U for tonight’s matchup. On Wednesday, they held Charlotte to only 93 points on 38% shooting, including 10 of 38 from three-point range. Milwaukee once again looks like the best team in the league as they have the best point differential and net efficiency rating. Winners of six of their last seven, the Bucks are right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, a place we all thought they’d be. They get a break here in that Dallas is a bit short-handed right now. Having held their previous five opponents to 42.8% shooting, it’s not as if the Bucks really need much of a break. Dallas is 5-2 Under its last seven tries as an underdog and I happen to think this O/U has been set too high. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks |
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01-14-21 | California v. Colorado UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-89 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under California/Colorado (2:00 ET): Cal has gone Over in seven straight games, but this afternoon they are running into an opponent that I feel is among the most underrated teams in the country, that being Colorado. The Buffs scored for us on Monday, beating Utah 65-58 as a 2.5-pt favorite, though they did have to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit to do so. This is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home where they are allowing just 55.3 points per game thus far. You’ll want to be on the Under here. California won its first Pac 12 game of the season Saturday by defeating struggling Washington 84-78. That was the Bears’ highest scoring effort since an 87-56 blowout of CS Northridge back on 12/19. Between those two 80+ point games, Cal was held to 70 or less four straight times. I should also bring up the fact that playing on the road should lead to an obvious decrease in offensive production. The Bears have played five “true” road games thus far and the most they’ve scored in any of them was 69. Four times they were held to 64 or less. Colorado is 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they’ve certainly “got the goods” to slow down Cal today. I really can’t believe this team isn’t ranked as my power ratings comfortably have them in the Top 20. It appears as if they are getting Cal at the perfect time as two of the Bears’ key players - Matt Bradley and Kuany Kuany - have been battling injuries and both missed the last game. Bradley is the team’s leading scorer, so if he misses a third straight game, it would be a huge loss. This game was supposed to be played last night, but got bumped back due to COVID protocols. The early afternoon start time may lead to a “sleepy start” for both teams. 8* Under California/Colorado |
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01-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 130.5 | Top | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Texas A&M/Mississippi State (9:00 ET): Texas A&M really struggles offensively and as a result their last seven games have ALL stayed Under the total. To end a streak such as that, sometimes all it takes is the “right opponent.” In this instance, that’s what we’ve got with Mississippi State, a team that has put up 80+ points in six of its last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored no less than 73 in any of those eight games, so I see them “helping” A&M to its first Over in more than a month. As you might have guessed, Over has been the way to go with Miss State as that’s how six of their last nine games have ended up and for some it might be seven of nine. (The 78-63 win over Missouri last week fell very close to the number). On Saturday, the Bulldogs were involved in quite the high-scoring affair as they beat Vanderbilt 84-81. They shot over 60% (31 of 51) in that win and completely overwhelmed the Commodores in the paint, outscoring them there 42-18. What’s truly remarkable about the Bulldogs putting up 84 points in that game is the fact they made only four three-pointers. They attempted only seven! But the negative is that they did allow Vandy to make 15 shots from behind the arc. As good as they’ve been offensively, MSU has allowed 73+ points in three of its last four contests. Saturday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 80! So A&M has a shot to get its offense going here. Their three point shooting, below 30% for the season, is certainly due to get better. Of course that won’t matter if the Aggies play defense like they did vs. Tennessee, who they allowed to shoot 58.7% from the floor. This number is way too low for a game involving a team like Miss St. 10* Over Texas A&M/Miss State |
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01-13-21 | Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 227 | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Bucks/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just met twice last week (both games in Milwaukee) and as you might have guessed, the Bucks won both times. The scores were remarkably similar, 125-115 and 130-115, and that had the Over also going 2 for 2. Now they face off in the Motor City where the Pistons will hope for a better result. It’s highly unlikely that the underdog can prevail here, but their best chance is to keep things a lot more low-scoring. I do think that’s going to happen, for a variety of reasons. Since sweeping the Pistons last week, the Bucks have gone on to win two of their last three games. After losing to Utah (gave up 131 points!), they’ve bounced back to defeat both Cleveland (allowed just 90 points) and Orlando (allowed just 99 points). The Under hit in both wins and again, that’s what I see happening in this one as they are taking on another opponent that is apt to struggle at the offensive end. The Pistons are 26th in the league in offensive efficiency and prior to the season were projected to be LAST in that department. Now keeping the Bucks’ offense (#1 in efficiency) is going to be the key to this play. The Bucks are averaging 121.9 PPG so far, but that’s going to be difficult to maintain. Tonight marks the first time they’ve had to play consecutive road games since the start of the New Year. Hopefully, that can have a small (negative) impact on their production. But the bottom line here is that in it’s last two games, Detroit has scored just 86 and 93 points in regulation. With injuries at the PG position, they shot just 33% vs. Utah on Sunday. The Under is 4-1 in the Pistons’ last five home games. 8* Under Bucks/Pistons |
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01-12-21 | Manchester United v. Burnley OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Manchester United/Burnley (3:15 ET): Amidst much hype, Manchester United has surged to the top of the Premier League table. They are currently level at 33 points with Liverpool and enter Tuesday knowing that all it will take is a point (draw) to pull ahead of the reigning EPL champs (at least temporarily) before next week’s huge showdown in Anfield. Of course, Man U will want the full three (points) here at Burnley as they look to continue their spectacular form that has seen them win 8 of their last 10 Premier League matches. One would have to go all the way back to December of 2012 to find the last time Man U has been atop the table past matchweek 17. Burnley will be trying to play spoiler here. They too are in decent form, having won three of four in Premier League play. But those three wins have come against the Wolves, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United, all bottom of the table teams. The big issue this season for Burnley - and why they are still in 16th position - is that they have tallied only nine goals in 15 matches. That’s the second fewest in the EPL, only one ahead of relegation-bound Sheffield United. Though they were on the pitch Saturday in FA Cup action, Burnley is relatively fresh here as their last scheduled EPL encounter (Jan 3 vs. Fulham) was postponed (COVID). I do think we’re going to see them get on the scoresheet Tuesday. It’s almost been comical how low-scoring their matches have been thus far with just 29 total goals scored. The next fewest is Fulham with 36. Yes, some of it is due to Burnley having only played 15 matches, but they are long overdue for a “high-scoring affair''. United has scored 2+ goals in six of their last eight EPL matches, so they are the perfect “dance partner.” This one goes Over. 8* Over Manchester United/Burnley |