Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-08-20 | Predators v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under Predators/Oilers (7:05 ET): The St. Louis Blues lead the Western Conference with 72 points. Behind the Stanley Cup Champs, 11 teams (7 of whom will make the playoffs) are separated by just eight points. These are two of them. Nashville has been pretty good on the road this year (15-9-3) and that has them fourth in the Central Division and one point back of the last Wild Card spot. Edmonton is safer (for now) as they are 3rd in the Pacific, but a 6-3 loss here at home to San Jose Thursday was not a “good look.” Most Edmonton games of late have been pretty high-scoring. The exception would be a shutout loss to Arizona (3-0) that took place earlier in the week. Other than that, every game the team has been involved in since Jan 6th has seen at least six total goals scored. Oddsmakers have taken notice by posting a high total for tonight’s game. When the Oilers hosted Nashville last month, it was a 4-2 final in their favor. That was an Under (O/U line was 6.5), the 5th time in the last 6 meetings these two have gone Under. The Predators have gone Under in three straight, none of those games seeing more than five total goals scored. So something will have to give Saturday. Over its L10 games, Nashville has scored three or fewer goals seven times. So that, combined with the history vs. Edmonton, leads me to the Under. The last three visits to Edmonton have all gone Under. The Oilers are 16-10 Under this year vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Under Predators/Oilers |
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02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Blazers/Jazz (10:35 ET): For more than a month, Utah was the hottest team in basketball. From 12/11 through 1/25, they won 19 of 21 games to get as high as second place in the Western Conference. But all of a sudden, things have taken a sharp turn with them losing five straight while also going 0-5 ATS. Tonight they host a team that has ironically swung in the other direction. Portland is 5-1 SU/ATS its last six games to get within four games of .500 and 2.5 games of the 8th and final playoff spot. The Blazers played last night and won 125-117 at home vs. San Antonio. A 40-point 4Q is what propelled them to victory as Damian Lillard had another great individual performance and the team shot 53.3% overall including 18 of 37 from three-point range. They got to 125 pts despite taking only 12 free throw attempts. It was the 4th straight Blazers that went Over the total and I should also point out that it was the eighth time in their L10 games surrendering at least 117 points. Last time on the road, they gave up 127 at Denver. These teams just met Saturday in Portland w/ the Blazers coming out on top by a score of 124-107. Four days later the Jazz played in Denver (one day after Portland did) and they lost 98-95. After some poor shooting efforts, I look for the Jazz to pick it up offensively tonight at home where they average 111 PPG on 48% shooting. Wednesday was the first time they were held below 100 points since December 9th. Whether they win or lose, a bounce back offensively is all but inevitable here. 10* Over Blazers/Jazz |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under 49ers/Chiefs (6:30 ET): Before the start of the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they’ve gone from 4-12 to 15-3 SU and are in the Super Bowl for a seventh time in franchise history. The last time, under Jim Harbaugh and with Colin Kaepernick at QB, is the only one they’ve lost. That was against Baltimore, seven years ago, and they were never “in the money” as 4-point favorites (lost 34-31). While even I ended up being surprised over just how much the 49ers improved, make no mistake about it, this was the best team in the NFC all year long. Kansas City did not finish with the best record in the AFC (Baltimore did), but here they are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It’s the first Super Bowl for HC Andy Reid since losing to the Patriots when he was with the Eagles. This team is probably better than any Eagles team he coached. The Chiefs are not only on an 8-game SU winning streak coming into the biggest game of the year, they have gone 8-0 ATS in those games as well. One of the biggest reasons for that is an improved defense. While we really haven’t seen that in either of the two playoff games, KC has allowed an average of just 13.7 PPG during the eight-game win streak. Believe it or not, this is likely to close as one of the highest O/U lines for any Chiefs game this season. Early in the season, there were two games with 55-point totals. This will certainly close as the highest O/U line for any Niners game this year. SF games average 49.1 PPG. KC games average 50.0 on the dot. We know the 49ers can play defense as they rank #2 in yards allowed. Both of these defenses are top 10 in scoring. The Under is 7-2-1 in the 10 Super Bowls w/ totals of 50+ pts, including last year’s 13-3 game. Based on the two Conference Championship Games, the public will be on the Over in this game. I’ll take the Under. 10* Under 49ers/Chiefs |
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02-02-20 | Blue Jackets v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Canadiens (2:05 ET): Columbus had been surging as they went into the All-Star Break on a six-game win streak that included THREE shutouts. But in their first game since the Break, they lost 2-1 to Buffalo yesterday. The game went to overtime and obviously didn’t feature much offense as the two teams combined for just 47 shots. With all the shutouts, Columbus games have generally been low-scoring of late as yesterday marked their seventh Under in the last eight games. Montreal has also been going Under with regularity of late. Their 4-0 shutout of Florida on Saturday made it a 7-1-1 Under run as they’ve allowed 1 or 0 goals five different times during that stretch. Yesterday’s blanking of the Panthers was quite impressive considering Florida came in on a six-game win streak where they’d tallied 4+ goals in every win. But it was also the third time in the last five games in which the Habs scored 4 or more times. They are averaging 3.6 goals per game during that stretch. Something worth monitoring here is the goalie situation seeing as this is the second game of a back to back for both times. Columbus has indicated they are again going with Elvis Merzlikins, but note he has a losing record in road starts as his save percentage dips to .907. For Montreal, Carey Price has given up seven goals in the two previous meetings with the Blue Jackets this season. The Canadiens’ PK was able to go 6 for 6 yday, which seems a little fortunate. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Canadiens |
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02-01-20 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 218.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): This is the primetime game on ABC as we get two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams squaring off. Boston is in a third place tie with Miami right now, but interestingly enough only two teams in the entire league (Bucks, Lakers) can claim to having a better YTD point differential than the Celtics. Getting this game at home is pretty huge for them (Boston) as Philly is only 9-16 SU on the road, compared to 22-2 SU at home. The 76ers are currently 6th in the East, two games back of the Celtics. Boston has won five of its last six games (also 5-1 ATS) including two straight. In the five wins, they’ve allowed no more than 107 points. The one loss saw them concede 123 to the Pelicans, but that was on the road and the game still stayed Under. That’s part of a 5-game Under streak the Celtics carry into tonight. Boston is top five in the league in defensive efficiency and I expect them to hold the Sixers offense, which is averaging just 106.1 PPG on the road, in check tonight. But the Celtics may have a problem on the offensive end here as Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee injury. That same knee caused him to miss a game in January and Walker scored only 13 points (5 of 13 shooting) in Thursday’s win over Golden State. Enes Kanter may also be out because of a hip injury. The 76ers have really had the Celtics’ number as they look to make it a 4-0 season sweep tonight. In the previous three matchups, they’ve held Boston to an average of just 100 PPG. The Sixers are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, but only 19th in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Sixers/Celtics |
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01-30-20 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 227.5 | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We’ve got two bad teams here, each desperate for a win. Charlotte did win its last game (Tuesday vs. NY), but had lost eight in a row prior to that come from behind effort. Washington, meanwhile, has given up an ungodly 303 total points its last two games combined and neither of those went to overtime! Something has to give here as the Hornets’ last four games have all stayed Under while the Wizards last four games have all gone Over. I think Washington’s trend is the more likely to continue. It is becoming difficult to explain just how awful the Wizards are defensively. Last in the league in efficiency and points allowed (121.3 per game), they have allowed 134 or more points in four of their last six contests. What makes Tuesday’s 151-131 loss in Milwaukee all the more humiliating is that the Bucks played without Giannis Antetokounmpo, yet still managed to shoot 56.6% from the field including 19 of 36 on three-point attempts. The Wizards allowed 88 points in the first half alone! Charlotte is the league’s lowest scoring team (103.1 PPG), but it would be foolish to think they are incapable of “going off” against the defensively inept Wizards. They’ve averaged 116 points in two prior meetings with them this season. The lone game here in D.C. was a 125-118 final (in favor of the Wizards) as both teams shot better than 50% and combined to make 28 three-pointers. This is about as low a total as you’re going to get on a Washington game these days, so play accordingly. 10* Over Hornets/Wizards |
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01-28-20 | Pelicans v. Cavs OVER 233 | Top | 125-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): After losing the first two games with Zion Williamson on the court, New Orleans finally broke through with a win on Sunday, beating the Celtics 123-108 in a game they (meaning the Pelicans) were actually favored to win. After that performance, the Pelicans have to like their chances going up against a Cleveland side that is one of the league’s worst and will be playing the second night of a back to back. One thing for certain is that the potential for a LOT of scoring is present. The Cavaliers did pick up a rare victory last night, winning 115-100 in Detroit. They closed as 6.5-point underdogs and Kevin Love scored all 20 of his points in the first half. It was Cleveland’s first win in over two weeks and snapped a seven-game losing streak. The game also went Over, the third straight Cavs’ game to do so. The Over is now 11-3 for this team in the month of January, which really isn’t all that surprising considering they have posted the league’s second worst defensive efficiency rating. Only Washington is worse. New Orleans has also been going Over quite a bit this month with a 10-3 Over mark. This is a team that can score and Williamson only makes them stronger at that end of the floor. But the Pelicans’ problem remains defense as they actually give up more points per game (117.4) than Cleveland. They are 28th overall in PPG allowed (only Atlanta & Washington worse). With that distinction + Cleveland’s own defensive inefficiencies, look for a ton of scoring tonight. New Orleans is 7-1 Over off a DD win. 10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers |
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01-27-20 | Spurs v. Bulls OVER 217 | Top | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Over Spurs/Bulls (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for San Antonio, who lost yesterday to Toronto 110-106 as a 3.5-point home dog. It was the Spurs’ second straight home defeat by exactly four points (also lost 110-106 to Phoenix on Friday) and now they’ve got to fly to Chicago to face a Bulls team that’s off a 118-106 victory at Cleveland Saturday night. But I’d be in no rush to bet the Bulls in this situation as they haven’t posted B2B wins in over a month. The Spurs have not missed the playoffs since the year before they drafted Tim Duncan. That’s quite the streak and year in, year out, you always expected this to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. That has NOT been the case this year, however. The Spurs have slipped to 23rd in defensive efficiency and are also giving up 115.8 PPG on the road. More than anything, that’s what’s turned this into a fringe playoff team. They are 26-17 Over in all games this season including 13-7 on the road. Chicago has had trouble stringing together two straight competent offensive efforts, but they should hopefully exploit the fact that San Antonio is letting opponents connect on almost 38% of three-point attempts on the road. It was a nice game offensively vs. the Cavaliers Saturday as the Bulls shot 51% from the field. The only problem was they also let Cleveland shoot 50% overall, which included 13 of 30 from three-point range. The Bulls are a sub-.500 team (18-30 SU) and the Spurs are 15-5 Over this season vs. such opponents. 10* Over Spurs/Bulls |
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01-26-20 | Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 234 | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Grizzlies (6:05 ET): These teams have already met three times this season and the Under has cashed every time. But there were 219, 223 and 235 total pts scored in those games. The problem was that - as the scoring increased - so did the O/U line. This is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in the O/U line from the previous meeting and I feel like we should take advantage. Memphis has become quite the high scoring team this year, averaging 115.1 PPG. But they are actually giving up more than they score (116.7 at home), so high-scoring games are nothing new for them. Take the Over in this one. Phoenix, who I rate as a better team that Memphis, is hopeful that the trend continues of the road team winning in this series. It’s happened in all three previous meetings this year and the last four overall. On Friday, the Suns traveled to San Antonio and picked up a key 103-99 win over the Spurs, pulling them a bit closer to the #8 spot in the Western Conference, a spot currently occupied by Memphis. Despite the low-scoring nature of the last game, the Suns are averaging 112.8 PPG while allowing 113.7 PPG. The Over is 9-6 in Phoenix’ games this season when the total is 230+ points. They are 19-13 Over vs. teams averaging at least 106 points per game. The Grizzlies just scored 125 in Detroit Friday night, one game after being held below 100 (by Boston) for the first time since December 4th. Not only that, the Grizz have actually scored 110+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. In terms of pace (# of possessions per game), both of these teams are in the top 10 in the league. 10* Over Suns/Grizzlies |
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01-26-20 | Fordham v. St. Louis UNDER 119.5 | Top | 39-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
10* Under Fordham/St. Louis (3:00 ET): Perhaps they were still reeling from their near upset of Dayton the previous Friday (lost in OT), but St. Louis lost to Davidson on Wednesday 71-59. Granted, the Billikens were 2.5 pt underdogs for that one, but they were certainly hoping for a better result after taking one of the top teams in the country to overtime. They’ll look to bounce back at home Sunday and it’s a spot where they should do well as they host A-10 lightweight Fordham. Fordham is coming off a win here, 59-54 over George Washington on Wednesday. But that was on the heels of a five-game losing streak. The Rams had actually dropped 9 out of their last 10, the only win coming against Coppin State. What doesn’t bode well for them today (or most others for that matter) is that they only average 59.6 points per game. St. Louis is a strong defensive outfit, giving up only 65.8 PPG. That said, I’m not about to lay this many points with a team that couldn’t break 60 points in its last game. Fordham actually plays great defense, giving up only 60.9 PPG. This has all the makings of an ugly slugfest where it could be the first team to 60 wins. Fordham has been held under 63 points in seven straight games, averaging only 56.2 their L5. Both teams here hold opponents under 41% shooting for the year. 10* Under Fordham/St. Louis |
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01-25-20 | Lakers v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | Top | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Lakers/Sixers (8:35 ET): For the second week in a row, the Lakers are featured on ABC in primetime. They can only hope this game goes as well as last week when they downed the Rockets 124-115 in Houston. But that was the start of a five-game road trip. Tonight is the end of the trip and they’re in Philly where the host Sixers are a very strong 20-2 SU. So I can’t advise laying points in this spot. But I do see the Lakers going Over for the eighth time in their last nine games. Philadelphia is 6-2 Under its last eight games and has even been held below 100 pts four different times during that stretch. But the key there is all four times were on the road. At home, the Sixers are up to 111.4 PPG on the year. This is not the most efficient offensive team in the league, far from it, but they are 5-1 Over when coming off a double digit loss. They lost by 12 in Toronto Wednesday night due in large part to shooting only 38% from the floor. At home, against a tired defense, you can look for them to shoot a heck of a lot better.. The Lakers just put up 128 points Thursday night in a win over Brooklyn. They shot 50% from the floor as they won for a 12th time in the last 14 games. Seeing as LeBron and company average 114.6 PPG on the road, I don’t envision them having much difficulty scoring tonight. The Lakers actually average slightly more PPG on the road than at home. Philadelphia put up 46 three-point attempts in their last game, a clear sign that’s going to be a big part of their arsenal moving forward. 10* Over Lakers/Sixers |
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01-25-20 | Florida International v. Charlotte UNDER 142 | Top | 49-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Florida International/Charlotte (4:00 ET): Charlotte’s results when it comes to the O/U have been very “streaky.” At one point, they’d gone Under in six straight games. But now the 49ers are on a four-game Over run. Key to the latest streak is that three of the four games were on the road. This is a team that plays much better defense here at home where it allows just 57.5 PPG. Neither of the last two games were that high scoring, it was just that the totals for both were exceptionally low. Meanwhile, there’s no denying how most FIU games go. This is a high-scoring team, one that averages 81.1 PPG (14th in the country) and even 77.4 on the road. They also give up 76.6 PPG away from home. Yet the Panthers’ OU record for the year is actually 10-7 to the Under, due in large part to consistently high totals. The last three games, all wins, have seen FIU score 93, 83 and 83 points. They didn’t even shoot that well in two of the games. This one will largely come down to which team can dictate the pace. FIU is 14th in adjusted tempo while Charlotte is 280th. Ultimately, I think this game is going to be played at Charlotte’s pace. Again, this is a pretty high total for them. Conversely, it’s pretty low by FIU standards. But note the Under is 4-1 in Panthers’ games where the O/U line is between 140 and 149.5. They are also 7-2 Under after scoring 80+ pts in their previous game. The Under is 7-3 in Charlotte home games. 8* Under Florida International/Charlotte |
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01-24-20 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219 | Top | 116-103 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Bucks/Hornets (3:05 ET): Charlotte is not good at all, but I feel Milwaukee can “carry them” to an Over here in Paris, France. The location is the reason for the early start time, obviously and I don’t expect that either team “packed its defense.” Of course, the Bucks lead the league in scoring at 119.4 PPG and should have little difficulty scoring on a Hornets team that they already hung 137 on in a win earlier this season. The Bucks are strong defensively as well, but could “slip up” a bit in the unfamiliar environment. Now I realize there weren’t any defensive issues for Milwaukee in either of its last two games. They held both Brooklyn and Chicago under 100 points in a pair of victories, extending the team’s win streak to seven games and overall run to 12-1 since X-Mas. Compared to recent games, this is a really low total for the Bucks, who rarely see O/U lines below 220 pts these days. The total for that 1st meeting with the Hornets was 226 and went Over, so it’s a little surprising to see the number this low, even in Paris. In that first meeting, the Bucks blitzed the Hornets with 56.5% shooting en route to 137 points. It was one of the most efficient offensive performances all year from the best team in the league. Charlotte is trending in a very different direction lately as they have lost seven in a row and failed to hit 100 in the L2 losses. But I’ll call for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight. Milwaukee has gone Over in four straight games vs. sub-.500 opponents while the Over is 17-7 for Charlotte when they’re off a DD loss at home (lost 106-83 to Orlando on Sunday). 10* Over Bucks/Hornets |
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01-23-20 | Utah Valley v. CS Bakersfield UNDER 136.5 | Top | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Utah Valley State/CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Utah Valley comes in at 8-12 SU on the year and just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-70 win over UT Rio Grand Valley last Saturday. But the Wolverines failed to cover (were -4.5) so the ATS losing skid is still alive at four straight games. Tonight they head to Cal State Bakersfield to take on a team that’s returning home after B2B road wins against the bottom of the Big West. I am envisioning this to be an ugly, low-scoring game. So CS-Bakersfield’s two road wins came against Missouri-KC and Chicago State. The latter is probably the worst team in the entire country, so read little into the fact that the Roadrunners were able to shoot 51% from the floor in that game. It was actually their highest shooting percentage vs. a D-I opponent all season. While you may look at CS-Bakersfield’s scoring average at home this year (78.5 PPG) and be weary over playing the Under, take note that scoring average is greatly inflated by three wins over non-DI opponents. They’ve scored more than 75 pts vs. just one D-I foe this year and that was the second game of the season. Utah Valley has gone Under in four straight games, due in large part to some dreadful efforts at the offensive end. Prior to the win last Saturday, they had scored 56, 50 and 63 pts in their previous three contests. The Wolverines shoot a poor percentage (30.2) for the year from three-point range, so they’re not much of a threat there. Even in victory, they were just 5 of 21 from behind the arc Saturday. 10* Under Utah Valley State/CS Bakersfield |
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01-22-20 | Rutgers v. Iowa UNDER 138 | Top | 80-85 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Rutgers/Iowa (9:00 ET): Rutgers’ games have been going Under for quite awhile now. The last seven, a streak which goes all the way back to December 14th, have all stayed Under. But more important to the Scarlet Knights right now is that they’ve covered nine straight games, a streak which stretches back to December 9th. They’ve lost only one game during that time - by three at Illinois on Jan 11 - and have to be feeling pretty good about their chances of surviving the Big 10 gauntlet heading into Iowa City tonight. Iowa has won its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The Hawkeyes are now nationally ranked (#19 in both polls) and that’s pretty close to where I have them in my own power rankings (#18). They just hung 90 points on Michigan last Friday, but repeating that kind of offensive effort here against a team that ranks #7 nationally (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency seems unlikely. In its last nine games, the most points Rutgers has allowed is 65. They’ve held six opponents below 60 points. For the year, they allow just 58.7 PPG, which matches their efficiency ranking (#7 in the country). Obviously, Iowa is a better offensive team than most of the teams that Rutgers has faced. But Under is the call here. 10* Under Rutgers/Iowa |
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01-22-20 | Wizards v. Heat OVER 227 | Top | 129-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Over Heat/Wizards (7:35 ET): On average, Wizards’ games are the highest scoring of any team’s in the league. You’re looking at an average of 234.1 points per game. That’s obviously very high. What is - by far - the most interesting thing about this team is that their dramatic split between offensive and defensive efficiency. While they’ve recently gotten less efficient on the offensive end, it is their defensive efficiency - or rather lack of it - that’s really killing them. They are also dead last in the league in points allowed. Miami is coming off an overtime win against Sacramento. That improved their home record to a league-best 19-1. I played accordingly in a recent home and home with the Spurs, taking them at home and fading on the road. I won both times. This spread is a little high, but what’s notable is how the Heat’s scoring average jumps here at home to 115.7 PPG. They only average 108.0 PPG on the road. That’s actually a pretty sizable split. Regardless if home or away, the Over is 26-16-1 in all Heat games this season. So a home matchup against the worst defensive team in the league seems poised to go Over. The Wizards allowing a shocking 122.2 PPG on the road. Opponents shoot nearly 50% from the field! These teams have met twice already this season with the home team winning both games. Another key is the Wizards are 13-4 Over in games vs. .500 or better foes. Look for this to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Heat/Wizards |
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01-21-20 | Wake Forest v. Clemson UNDER 136.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Wake Forest/Clemson (8:00 ET): A couple of 9-8 teams fighting to stay relevant in the ACC meet Tuesday in Death Valley. Wake Forest is off a big 80-62 home win over Boston College on Sunday, which ended a three-game losing skid. But it’s a quick turnaround for the Demon Deacons as tonight they hit the road and face a Clemson team that just had a three-game win streak snapped with a 60-54 loss at NC State on Saturday. The Tigers still covered that game (were +7), so they are 4-0 ATS the last four games. It’s not the pointspread I’m concerned with tonight, however. Wake Forest also comes in having gone Over in eight consecutive contests. But some of those Overs have been by the “skin of the teeth” for Danny Manning’s squad. In fact, five of the eight games have gone Over by no more than four points. The Demon Deacons scored 80 points Sunday against B.C. but won’t come close to that number tonight as they are averaging just 68.7 PPG outside of Winston-Salem. Their last road game saw them get held to just 59 points by Duke. Clemson is ranked 33rd in the country in defensive efficiency, a strong rating. This is a team that beat both North Carolina and Duke three days apart earlier this month. Saturday’s loss to NC State was a revenge game for the Wolfpack after the Tigers had beaten them here at home on January 4th. The 60-54 loss in Raleigh snapped Clemson’s own four-game Over streak. They hold teams to just 39.7% shooting here at home and WF is shooting that exact same percentage on the road. 10* Under Wake Forest/Clemson |
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01-20-20 | Red Wings v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 109 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Colorado has come on strong these last two games, beating San Jose 4-0 and St. Louis 5-3. That pair of victories now has them in second place in the Central Division w/ 60 pts, eight back of the first place Blues. They’ve got the Western Conference’s best goal differential (+33), so it would certainly appear as if this club is going to have a productive second half of the season. With 173 goals scored in 48 games, the Avs are the West’s highest scoring team. Detroit is the worst team in all of hockey. They are in last place in the Atlantic with just 28 points. To put that number in its proper perspective, every other team in the league has at least 41 points. The Red Wings also have a -85 YTD goal differential. To put that number in proper perspective, the next worst goal differential in the league is -47. So things are looking rather bleak in the Motor City right now. The team’s biggest issue is that they have given up the most goals in the league. So an Avs team that’s among the league leaders in scoring certainly looks to be a poor matchup. While the Red Wings are also last in the league in goals scored, we can count on Colorado doing most of the heavy lifting here anyway. The Avalanche have scored nine goals in the last two games alone. They average 3.8 goals per game on the season while Detroit gives up 4.2 on the road. Getting four or five goals here from the Avs is a very strong possibility, so the hope is that the Red Wings can get at least two. The Over is 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight home games. 10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche |
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01-19-20 | California v. UCLA OVER 131 | Top | 40-50 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Cal/UCLA (8:00 ET): Neither team is playing well and both are off less than stellar offensive efforts. California put just 56 points on the board Thursday night at USC in what ended up being a humiliating 32 point defeat. UCLA could manage only 59 points in a 15-point loss at Stanford Wednesday. The two 8-9 teams meet Sunday night in Pauley Pavillion, both desperate for a win. UCLA is 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven games (0-3 SU/ATS L3) while Cal is 3-7 SU/ATS its L10. The struggles you’ve seen from both of these teams are not limited to the offensive end of the floor. Cal let USC shoot 50% from the field as it remained winless on the road this year. A big reason for that winless record is that they give up 75.7 PPG away from Berkeley. They don’t exactly shoot well either, but going against UCLA should help. The Bruins have given up at least 74 points in six of their last seven games. UCLA’s last two opponents have both shot better than 50%. I expect this to turn into a pretty high scoring game. Cal is 164th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCLA is an atrocious 233rd. UCLA is 7-4 Over as a favorite this year while Cal is 4-1 Over after being held to 60 points or less in its last game. 10* Over Cal/UCLA |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68. But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week. But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers |
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01-17-20 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 89-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Bulls/Sixers (7:05 ET): Chicago picked up a win it really “needed” to have on Wednesday, beating Washington 115-106 as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Bulls are now 15-27 SU on the year but by no means out of playoff contention, despite losing 7 of the last 10 games. They are just four back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. But they are banged up right now with multiple players injured including Otto Porter and Wendell Carter Jr. Friday looks like a tough assignment at Philadelphia, who is 19-2 SU at home. The Sixers have one of the sharpest home vs. road splits in the league right now. They are only 7-14 SU away from home and that’s why they’re not any higher in the Eastern Conference standings. They did beat Brooklyn here at home Wednesday night, 117-106 as a 7-point favorite. Joel Embiid remains out indefinitely, so they are short-handed right now as well. Before the win over the Nets (where they shot 51.1%), the Sixers had lost six of eight (all six losses on the road) and had even been held under 100 points four times. Philly, as you might expect, is a lot better defensively when at home. They give up just 102.1 PPG here, which is one of the better averages in the league. Some of that is certainly due to Embiid, but even without their All Star center, they still just held the Nets (with Kyrie) to 106 pts. Three of the Sixers last four opponents have not shot well. At the same time, they are 9-5 Under after scoring 115+ points. This O/U line exceeds what both teams’ games are averaging for the season. 10* Under Bulls/Sixers |
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01-15-20 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 136 | Top | 78-81 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Kentucky/South Carolina (6:30 ET): Kentucky, still my pick to win the SEC, seemed to have the faithful in Lexington in a bit worried when they lost back to back games to Utah and Ohio State right before the New Year. But John Calipari’s Wildcats have responded with four straight wins where their scoring has been remarkably consistent (between 71 and 78 points) and all four wins have been by at least eight points. They’ve moved up to #10 in the polls and tonight take on a South Carolina team trending in a very different direction. The Gamecocks have lost three straight games coming into tonight. This streak started with a humiliating upset here in Columbia as they lost 63-56 as a 22.5-point favorite to Stetson. Since then, it’s an 0-2 start in the SEC with losses to Florida and at Tennessee. They covered Saturday in Knoxville, losing by only one point, but could only manage 55 points. There have been a number of games this season when South Carolina’s offense seemingly “failed to show up.” They’ve shot just 35.5% in SEC play. It’s highly unlikely that the Gamecocks figure it out offensively in this game. Kentucky is strong defensively as they allow only 62.5 points/game. In the only meeting last year, they held South Carolina to 48 points. But the key here will be that UK’s own offense won’t be up to par. This is a rare “true” road game for the Wildcats, just their second all year. Four of South Carolina’s last five opponents have failed to exceed 63 points and for the year, opponents are shooting just 37.9%! Sounds like an Under to me! 10* Under Kentucky/South Carolina |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Seahawks/Packers (6:40 ET): All four Wild Card games were low-scoring and stayed Under the total. But the final Divisional Round matchup of the weekend figures to see some “fireworks” as arguably the two most overachieving teams in the NFL collide at Lambeau Field. Seattle, who beat Philadelphia 17-9 last weekend, is now 12-5 straight up. But they have just one win all year by more than eight points. Green Bay went 13-3 SU in the regular season, thus earning a bye, but they only outscored their opponents by 63 points and were 7-1 SU in one-score games. So I won’t dare make a play on the side here. But the total and how it’s been bet has caught my eye. While the win in Philly was ugly, Seattle did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last Sunday. That’s a strong average and I’m not sure the Packers defense is much better than the Eagles. Some traditional measures, like points allowed, might make it seem like they are. But Green Bay gave up more yards on a per play and per game basis. It’s been awhile since the Packers defense faced a QB anywhere near as dynamic as Russell Wilson. The Packers’ ended the regular season on a 7-1 Under run including 4-0 L4. But again, the offenses they went against were not the best. The only three playoff teams they faced that weren’t Minnesota all scored at least 24 points on them. And one of the Minnesota games saw the Vikings gain over 7.0 YPP. The other they were without RB Dalvin Cook. Seattle’s defense isn’t that great either (allows 375 YPG, 6.1 YPP) and will be facing Aaron Rodgers, not Josh McCown. Rodgers has had a “down” year, but I look for him to play well here. 10* Over Seahawks/Packers |
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01-12-20 | Spurs v. Raptors UNDER 221 | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Spurs/Raptors (6:05 ET): San Antonio had been playing a lot better of late, including big wins over both Milwaukee and Boston. But the key word in that last sentence is “had.” Friday’s loss in Memphis saw Greg Popovich’s team give up 134 points. This is simply not the same strong defensive team we’re used to seeing under Popovich as they let the Grizzlies shoot 52% for the game. But considering they held Milwaukee and Boston below 42%, the Spurs are still capable of playing some good defense. The Spurs are 13-4 Over their last 17 games including 4-0 the L4. But we know they can’t possibly be any worse at the defensive end than they were in Memphis. In the same vein, Toronto’s last game should not have gone Over, but they went to OT in Charlotte and that resulted in a 112-110 final score. The Raptors will take the win, but Under bettors had to be salty about losing a game that was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. Toronto has now held its last seven opponents to 102 pts or less in regulation, so they aren’t having the kind of defensive issues the Spurs have been experiencing of late. The big story coming into tonight’s game is that there is a chance that some of Toronto’s injured starters could be returning. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell were all injured in a December 18th win over Detroit. Those absences obviously haven’t hurt the Raptors defensively. Of the trio, Powell is the most likely to return tonight. He’s the least important on the offensive end. Even if Gasol or Siakam is able to play here, I wouldn’t expect a ton of points. Toronto doesn’t give up many points and San Antonio is “due” for a low-scoring game. 10* Under Spurs/Raptors |
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01-10-20 | Hornets v. Jazz UNDER 213 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Jazz (9:05 ET): Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the entire league, meaning their games average the fewest number of possessions. Theoretically, that should make them an “Under team,” but lately that has NOT been the case with their last four games all going Over the total. But tonight’s trip to Utah should put an end to that streak as the Jazz are a really solid defensive team, especially when they are playing at home. Take the Under. Early on in the season, Utah looked like a disappointment. Not anymore. They’ve gone 12-1 SU since December 11th and are a perfect 7-0 since X-Mas. This was a team I felt was primed to finish in the top four in the Western Conference this year (along with the Lakers, Clippers and Rockets). Other than a wild 128-126 win over defensively inept New Orleans on Monday, the Jazz have held each of their previous five opponents to 104 pts or less. Three of them were held below 100. Charlotte’s last game (vs Toronto) should not have gone Over, but did because of overtime. That was a 100-100 game at the end of regulation, which would make it three times in the last five games they’ve failed to top 104 points in regulation. So much for being an “Over team.” Advanced metrics hate this Hornets team as they’ve been outscored by one of the five largest margins in the league this year. They only average 104.6 PPG on the road. 10* Under Hornets/Jazz |
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01-07-20 | Knicks v. Lakers UNDER 221 | Top | 87-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Knicks/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Knicks have started their four game road trip with a couple of high-scoring losses. They went down 120-112 in Phoenix and then 135-132 to the Clippers. While losing certainly isn't irregular for this moribund franchise, scoring lots of points certainly is. Despite what's gone down in the L2 games, they are still 27th in PPG and 26th in offensive efficiency. After they shot a stunning 57.1% from the floor (and still lost!) Sunday, expect a sharp decline in offense tonight as they play the red hot Lakers. Take the Under. The Lakers have won five in a row, but many of those games have been "too close for comfort." They led big leads slip away against both Phoenix and New Orleans, then needed a 4Q rally to defeat struggling Detroit Sunday night. They're still 20-0 SU vs. teams with losing records, but I think they'd like to be winning a lot more comfortably. One positive takeaway from the win over Detroit is that they had 20 blocked shots (eight coming from Anthony Davis), a sign they are playing good defense. The Lakers only allow 103.6 PPG, so again I think it's going to be a long night offensively for the Knicks. In two of the last four games, LA has held its opponent below 100 points. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a high total for both teams as the Lakers are 12-6 Under and the Knicks 8-4 Under when the total is 220 or higher. The Knicks are 9-5 Under this season after allowing 115+ pts and 6-2 Under the L3 seasons after allowing 130+ pts. 10* Under Knicks/Lakers |