08-01-19 |
Aces v. Sparks UNDER 155 |
Top |
68-76 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (623) and the Los Angeles Sparks (624). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (14-6) has won three straight games after their easy 86-54 win over Dallas on Tuesday as an 11.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-8) has won four of their last five games as they return to the court for the first time after the All-Star break which concluded with their 78-66 win at Atlanta back on July 23rd as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Sparks to be a bit rusty with their nine-day layoff. They made 43.1% of their shots in their victory over the Dream which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last game. But Los Angeles has then played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. The Sparks have also seen the Under finish 34-16-1 in their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home when playing no more than their third game in ten days. Los Angeles has also played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Sparks return home here they have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total when favored by no more than 3 points. They will be understaffed tonight with guard Riquina Williams serving a ten-game suspension and guard Alana Beard doubtful with a hamstring injury. Las Vegas made 46.9% of their shots on Tuesday in their 32-point victory over the Wings which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. That nice shooting percentage was the product of a whopping 27 team assists in that game — but they have then played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after a game where they generated at least 24 assists as a team. More impressively, the Aces limited Dallas to just 28.6% shooting from the field. Head coach Bill Laimbeer has his team playing like his old Bad Boy Detroit Pistons teams as they lead the WNBA with a Defensive Rating of 88.9. Las Vegas has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than a 30% field goal percentage. The Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Las Vegas goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Aces have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. And while this is just their third game in the last ten days, Las Vegas has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when not playing more than their third game in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total — and this includes them playing six of their last seven games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* WNBA ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (623) and the Los Angeles Sparks (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-19 |
Wings v. Aces UNDER 150.5 |
Top |
54-86 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Wings (615) and the Las Vegas Aces (616). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-14) returns from the All-Star break having lost five straight games after their 70-66 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog back on July 20th. Las Vegas (13-6) returns to the court after their 79-62 win over Seattle last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wings have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Dallas has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days rest. The Wings go back on the road where they are a winless 0-10 this season. Dallas scores only 67.7 PPG away from home while making just 37.1% of their shots. The Wings have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference foes. Las Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Head coach Bill Laimbeer has his team playing like his old Bad Boy Detroit Pistons teams as they lead the WNBA with a Defensive Rating of 90.0. Las Vegas holds their visitors to hitting just 38.3% from the field when playing at home — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 36.8% shooting from the field. The Under is 9-4-1 in the Aces’ last 14 games at home. Las Vegas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. They will likely be without one of their top scorers in forward A’Ja Wilson who has missed their last two games with an ankle injury — last year’s Rookie of the Year is scoring 15.4 PPG this season.
FINAL TAKE: These are the two bottom teams in the WNBA when it comes to offense. Dallas is second-to-last with their 91.7 Offensive Rating while Las Vegas is last in the league with their 89.0 Offensive Rating. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* WNBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Wings (615) and the Las Vegas Aces (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 |
Top |
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston won the third game of this series on Saturday with their 9-5 victory. New York has lost the first three games of this series — and they have lost four of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have now surrendered 59 runs in their last seven games. The Over is now 23-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have seen the Over go 42-13-2 of their last 57 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 25-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to German who is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts (seventeen games) this season. The right-hander has done his best work at home in Yankee Stadium where he owns a 2.13 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 5.66 mark on the road with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine starts. The Over is 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 road games with German on the hill — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with German facing a team with a winning record. He faces a red hot Red Sox lineup that has scored 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .315 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 during that span. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers which includes them playing four of their last five games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.15. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Sale who is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster in left-field where he has a 4.26 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts as compared to his 3.78 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 10-4-2 in Boston’s last 16 home games with Sale on the mound. Sales faces a New York team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937 over that span. The Yankees have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and the Over is also 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-19 |
Tigers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (43-63) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series by a 10-2 score. Detroit (30-68) has lost their last three games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 24-9-3 in the Mariners’ last 36 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. Furthermore, the Over is 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 27-13-3 in the Mariners’ last 43 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Kikuchi who is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has seen his numbers decline significantly in the grind of his first MLB season after coming over from Japan — and he has not been able to adapt to the book that teams have quickly written about his stuff. Over his last ten starts, Kikuchi is 1-6 with a 7.85 ERA. He also sees his ERA rise to a 5.79 mark in his ten starts at home. The Over is 8-1-1 in Seattle’s last 10 home games with Kikuchi on the hill — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Kikuchi facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Tigers team that loves to face left-handed pitching. Detroit scores only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game this season with a .232 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .667 — but those hitting splits rise to a .259 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .774 against left-handed starting pitchers which translates into them scoring a healthy 5.4 Runs-Per-Game against those lefties. The Over is 12-4-1 in the Tigers’ last 17 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while Detroit has only scored four combined runs in their last three games, they have then played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. The Over is also 10-2-1 in the Tigers’ last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Norris who is 2-8 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts (twenty games). The left-hander comes off a rain-shortened start where he allowed only one run at home against Toronto — but Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when Norris is following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. Norris has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average at home — yet those numbers rise significantly to a 5.28 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in his ten starts (twelve games) on the road. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Norris on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle is swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .277 with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .791 over that span. The Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams when playing in Safeco Park. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-19 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 |
Top |
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. THE SITUATION: Boston (54-46) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-0 loss at Baltimore yesterday. Tampa Bay (57-45) snapped a five-game losing streak yesterday with their 4-2 win against the Chicago White Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox were shut out for the first time in eighty-one games — and they had bashed at least one home run in eleven straight games before yesterday. Boston has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Over is also 13-3-1 in Boston’s last 17 games when playing on artificial turf. And in their last 51 opening games to a new series, the Over is 34-15-2. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 11-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has pitched his best at home where he owns a 3.84 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 4.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. Rodriguez also has a 7.11 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field. The Red Sox have lady 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with Rodriguez on the hill. And while Rodriguez comes off a strong effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work at home against Toronto, Boston has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Rodriguez following up a Quality Start in his last effort. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Rodriguez pitching at night. Tampa Bay has seen the Over go 8-2-3 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 3-0-2 in the Rays’ last 5 opening games to a new series. They counter with Beeks who is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been used exclusively as a bulk inning pitcher out of the bullpen — but he will be making his first official start in this game tonight. I am not sure I buy into the “opener” craze that teams like Tampa Bay have embraced (while conceding the opener can mess with the opposing team’s starting lineup when a pitcher throwing with the other hand comes in to pitch in the 2nd inning). That said, there is a reason that the Rays’ coaching staff has been reluctant to have Beeks open games until now. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.65 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Because Beeks does not have much of a fastball, he needs all four of his pitches working to be effective. Beeks has not been as successful when pitching at home where he owns a 3.77 ERA along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 31 innings of work as opposed to his 1.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in 33 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a Red Sox lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to Tampa Bay back on June 9th. The Red Sox have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they scored only one run. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total when facing off in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-19 |
Rockies v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: New York (64-33) has won five straight games with their 11-5 victory over the Rockies yesterday. Colorado (46-52) has lost six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after a win by at least four runs — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Bronx Bombers last 9 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The New York bullpen is getting it done as of late after not surrendering an earned run again last night. The Yanks’ bullpen has a sparkling 0.43 ERA over their last five games with a 0.76 WHIP while giving up just one earned run over that span consisting of 21 innings of work. New York has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run — and they have played 40 of their last 58 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or better over their last five games. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The left-hander has allowed only five earned runs in three starts this month for a nifty 2.50 ERA. Paxton has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in nine starts. Paxton’s teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with him taking the mound in the month of July. He should fare well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .281 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .697. Colorado has played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing at least four straight games. The Rockies stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Colorado has played 22 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. And the Under is 28-11-3 in their last 42 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a bad outing in his last start against the Giants where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work at home. That start was at home in Coors Field where he is saddled with a 7.07 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 — but he has been much better at home where enjoys a 3.33 ERA along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in ten starts. The Under is 7-3-1 in Colorado’s last 11 road games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. The sabermetrics are encouraging for Marquez with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.63 moving forward. The Rockies have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with Marquez pitching after a loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Colorado bullpen has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over the last two days in the Bronx — but they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings in their last two games. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-19 |
Nationals v. Braves UNDER 10 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
101 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-40) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 victory over the Nationals. Washington (51-45) has now lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves were a small money-line underdog yesterday with Julio Teheran facing off against Patrick Corbin — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after delivering an upset victory as a home underdog. The Under is also now 6-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 9 games at home — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against NL East opponents. The Braves have also played 9 of their last 13 games in the month of July Under the Total. They give the ball to Soroka who is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in sixteen starts. The rookie phenom has given up more than two runs only four times in those sixteen starts. The right-hander’s formula for success has been to limit gopher balls which is a tantalizing quality in this current home run obsessed era of launch angles. Soroka has given up only four home runs this year for a microscopic 0.38 Home Runs Allowed per 9 inning rate. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Soroka facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total with him starting as the favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. He faces a Nationals team that has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss. The Nationals have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of July — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow NL East opponents. This is Washington’s seventh straight game on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games after playing their previous four games Under the Total. The Nationals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road overall. They counter with Sanchez who is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. The veteran right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in fourteen of those starts — and he is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts. The former Brave has a 3.00 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this year. And Sanchez has been a bit more effective on the road where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a .236 batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 3.76 ERA and .239 opponent’s batting average at home. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves lineup that has cooled off significantly this month — they are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .244 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 693 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Braves were interesting with Overs last month — but it is time to zig from that zag. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-19 |
Edmonton v. Montreal UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
10-20 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Eskimos (693) and the Montreal Alouettes (694). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (3-1) enters this game coming off a 33-6 win at British Columbia as a 3-point favorite back on July 11th. Montreal (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 36-19 win at Ottawa last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eskimos are playing the best defense in the CFL as they are holding their opponents to just 226.5 total YPG in their four games. They registered five sacks last week against the Lions while holding them to only 210 yards of offense in their win on the road in British Columbia last week. Edmonton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Eskimos limited BC to just 124 passing yards in that game as well — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 200 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Edmonton held Winnipeg in their building to just 273 yards of offense two weeks ago — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 YPG over their last two contests. But the Eskimos stay on the road for the third straight week which may mean trouble for their offense to continue to execute at a high level. Edmonton is leading the CFL by averaging 452.5 total YPG under their offseason free-agent acquisition in quarterback Trevor Harris. But that number drops to 396.5 total YPG in their two games on the road. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Eskimos last 8 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set at 52 or higher. Montreal has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 38 points in a victory over an East Division rival. Additionally, the Alouettes have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. After getting routed at home to Hamilton by a 41-10 score back on June 28th, the formula for Montreal’s success has been a commitment to run the football. Running back Willie Stanback rushed 22 times for 203 yards in their 36-29 revenge win at Hamilton the following week before gaining 100 yards on the ground on 18 carries in their upset win at Ottawa. This dedication to running the football has helped the Alouettes burn time off the clock while keeping their defense fresher — and that tends to be a formula for Unders. Montreal held the football for 34:55 minutes while generating 30 first downs two weeks ago against the Tiger-Cats before controlling the time of possession for 33:46 last week while earning 24 first downs — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they gained at least 22 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 32 minutes. And while the Alouettes have gained 467 and 474 yards in each of their last two games, they have then played 16 of the last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eskimos’ 32-25 win over Montreal back on June 14th in the opening regular-season game for both these teams. Expect the defenses to gain the upper hand in this rematch. 25* Canadian Football League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Eskimos (693) and the Montreal Alouettes (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
1-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (691) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (692). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (2-2) has suffered their second straight upset loss with their 36-19 loss at home to Montreal as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Winnipeg (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-21 win over Toronto as a 15-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks’ defense played well in the first half as they went into the locker room in a 9-9 deadlocked score — but four turnovers including three lost fumbles eventually were too much for this team to overcome. Ottawa has then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering a loss at home to a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss against an East Division rival as a favorite laying at least 6 points. And while the Redblacks have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after enduring at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Ottawa’s loss to the Alouettes finished above the 51.5 point Total — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Redblacks will be without their starting quarterback Dominique Davis for tonight’s game after he got banged up last week. Instead, Jonathan Jennings will make his first start for Ottawa this season since being signed as a free agent in the offseason. The Redblacks will be leaning on their defense with Jennings at QB despite surrendering 457.3 total YPG. Ottawa has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards per game in their last three contests. The Redblacks have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of July. Winnipeg has played 6 straight games at home Under the Total after a victory by at least 17 points — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Blue Bombers raced out to a 37-6 halftime lead over the Argonauts last week — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring at least 27 points in the first half of their last game. And while Winnipeg has covered all four games they have played this season, they have then played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Bombers lead the CFL by allowing only 365.0 total YPG — and they have limited their four opponents to just 19.7 PPG. I expect Ottawa to play Winnipeg tough — but they may not be able to score enough points with Jennings making his first start under center. The stronger play is with the Under. 25* CFL Friday Night Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (691) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Storm v. Lynx UNDER 147.5 |
Top |
90-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (627) and the Minnesota Lynx (628). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-8) has won two straight games after their 78-69 win over New York on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Minnesota (10-7) has won four of their last five games with their 75-62 victory over Phoenix as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Storm flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Liberty to just a 36.8% shooting percentage in that win. That defensive effort might be a good sign for the reigning WNBA champions who will likely need to lean heavily on their work rate of that end of the court given the injuries this team has sustained. Last year’s Most Valuable Player, Breanna Stewart, is out the season with a torn Achilles — and Sue Bird is also is still out with a bad knee who contributed last year with a 40.8% assist percentage along with a 44.8% shooting mark from behind the arc. Seattle is also now without Jewell Loyd who has been their second-leading scorer this season. The Storm still has Natasha Howard to sore points but she is also one of the best defenders in the league while being the second-best shot-blocker in the WNBA last season. The Under is 13-2-2 in Seattle’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win at home. The Under is also 8-1-1 in the Storm’s last 10 games after a point spread loss. Seattle now goes on the road where they only make 40.2% of their shots — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set at 140 or higher. Additionally, the Storm have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against fellow Western Conference rivals. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Lynx have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning at least three of their last four games. Minnesota made 42.7% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. That is well above their 41.6% shooting mark over their last five games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. The Lynx have all tightened things up on defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 38.0% shooting from the field. Minnesota has also been ravaged with injuries and absences this year. Rebekkah Johnson is still recovering from post-concussion symptoms from last August while All-Star Seimone Augustus is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Additionally, Jessica Shepard and Karima Christmas-Kelly are both out for the season with injuries — and Damiris Dantas has missed the last few games with a calf injury. All these missing players make the decision by forward Maya Moore to take a personal sabbatical this season even more challenging for this franchise that has won four of the last seven WNBA titles. They stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when laying no more than 6 points. And in their last 29 games against Western Conference rivals, the Lynx have played 21 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams back on June 4th where both teams scorched the nets in an 84-71 victory for Seattle. The Storm shot 59.3% from the field while making 7 of their 13 (53.8%) of their 3-point shots. Minnesota made 50.9% of their shots while nailing 8 of their 17 (47.1%) shots from downtown. Defense will be a priority for both teams in this rematch — and the Regression Gods have had this date (along with me) circled for weeks. 25* WNBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (627) and the Minnesota Lynx (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Rays v. Yankees UNDER 10 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. THE SITUATION: New York (60-33) has won two of their last three games with their 8-3 victory over the Rays in the second game of this series. Tampa Bay (56-41) had won three straight games before last night’s loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees clubbed two home runs en route to a six-run 8th inning to break open that game last night while ruining our Under that looked pretty good with the 3-2 score entering the bottom half of the 8th. New York had scored only 17 combined runs in their previous six games while not plating more than four runs in any of those games before last night. The Yankees bullpen did not surrender an earned run last night to help keep them in the game — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow at least one earned run. The Under is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to German who is 11-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen games). The right-hander went on the disabled list with a hip injury but is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since his return. German has been much better at home where he owns a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 4.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Yankees have played 6 straight games Under the Total with German pitching at home. Tampa Bay did not commit an error for the third straight game — they have committed only two errors in their last ten games. The Rays have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not committing an error for at least two straight games. Tampa Bay has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150. They counter with Chirinos who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nineteen appearances. The right-hander had been used as a bulk inning middle reliever — but his ability to throw strikes has elevated him to a regular starter in the Rays’ rotation. Chirinos is walking only 5.3% of the batters he faces which combined with Tampa Bay’s outstanding defense to help suppress base runners when he is on the mound. He has made nine straight starts for his team with a 3.04 ERA in those efforts. Chirinos has also been a bit better on the road where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in nine appearances as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Chirinos on the hill. He faces this cold Yankee lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .250 batting average along with a .321 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .769 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams after last night’s late Over result. Expect a return to a lower scoring game today. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Nigeria v. Tunisia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602) in the Third Place consolation match in the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W4-D0-L2) lost a heartbreaker in the final play of the fifth minute of extra time after 90 minutes when Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez scored on a spectacular free-kick just outside the box to hand the Nigerians a 2-1 loss. Tunisia (W1-D4-L1) also lost a tough one when they scored an own goal in the 100th minute of the match that was still nil-nil after 90 minutes in a 1-0 loss to Senegal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is difficult to assess if Nigeria will be deflated after surrendering the game-winning goal in the final moments of their match with Algeria or if they will rally around each other to bounce-back to take solace in a potential bronze trophy with a victory. Either way, the Super Eagles look poised to either score goals or surrender goals. This is not a side that typically plays low-scoring matches. In their three matches since suffering a surprising 2-0 loss to Madagascar in their final Group Stage match, Nigeria has scored six times. The Super Eagles are loaded with speed, talent, and power at the forward position. But this team also tends to make mistakes in their backline. They have allowed five goals in their last three matches. Nigeria’s last three matches have seen at least three combined goals. Tunisia has seen at least two combined goals in four of their six matches in this tournament. That final score in their loss to Senegal is a bit deceiving since both teams missed penalty kicks — the final score of that Semifinals match could have easily been a 2-1 result. The Eagles of Carthage have scored six times in this event while allowing just four goals with manager Alain Giresse content to grind out lower scoring matches. This tempo may now change in this consolation match. Tunisia competed in last summer’s World Cup where they scored five times in three Group Stage matches while surrendering a whopping eight goals.
FINAL TAKE: With the combination of tired legs, a lack of urgency on defense, and the desire to play more aggressively with less on the line, expect a higher scoring match. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-19 |
Liberty v. Storm UNDER 155 |
Top |
69-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Liberty (621) and the Seattle Storm (622). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) has lost two straight games after their 99-83 loss in Chicago on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak on Friday with their 95-81 win at home over Dallas laying 5.5-points as the favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liberty loss that game to Chicago primarily because of their lackluster effort on defense as they allowed the Sky to shoot 54.3% from the field. That was the worst defensive effort for New York this season. The Liberty have been playing better defense as of late — they have still held their last five opponents to just 41.8% shooting even after Friday’s performance. New York has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Liberty have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. Additionally, New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 14 games against Western Conference foes, the Liberty have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Seattle made 54.8% of their shots on Friday in their win which was the best shooting effort in their last sixteen contests. The Storm nailed 14 of their 23 shots from behind the arc for a red hot 54.8% 3-point shooting clip — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least nine 3-pointers in their last game. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. Additionally, the Under is 12-2-2 in the Storm’s last 16 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games when they are playing with one day of rest. And in their last 14 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, the Under is 9-4-1 for the Storm. Seattle remains without some of their scorers with Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird having not played this season given injuries — and their second-leading scorer this season in Jewell Loyd is also out with her ankle injury.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from an 84-83 upset victory by the Liberty in Seattle where they were 7.5-point underdogs. New York made 49.3% of their shots which was well above the 41.1% shooting percentage for the season. After the Storm’s shaky defensive effort on Friday, tightening things up on that end of the court will be a priority for head coach Dan Hughes’ team. 25* WNBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Liberty (621) and the Seattle Storm (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-19 |
Tunisia v. Senegal UNDER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794) in the Semifinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Tunisia (W1-D4-L0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament on Thursday with their 3-0 victory over Madagascar. Senegal (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the Semifinals the day before with their 1-0 victory over Benin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tunisia doubled their scoring output in this event with those three goals on Thursday. The Eagles of Carthage had scored only three combined goals in their previous four games before seeing that offensive explosion. Frankly, they were able to take advantage of an overmatched Madagascar side that had been the surprise of the tournament but whose bubble was ready to be burst after defeating a Nigeria side in the Group Stage that was resting key players before sneaking past an underperforming Congo DR team via Penalty Kicks in the Round of Sixteen. Tunisia had not seen more than two combined goals in their first four matches that all ended in draws. This is a team that is quite content to grind out a low scoring match led by an experienced group of defenders that competed in last summer’s World Cup. The Eagles of Carthage have surrendered only three goals in their five matches in this tournament. Senegal has conceded only once in their five tournament matches in what was a 1-0 loss to Algeria in the Group Stage. That contest between two sides that are now in the Semifinals may have been a precursor as to how this contest will play out. The Lions of Teranga probably have the best player left in this tournament (with Egypt’s Mo Salah eliminated) in Sadio Mane. Senegal is happy to play very cautiously with a defensive mindset with the confidence that the Liverpool star will find scoring opportunities in the counterattack. The Lions of Teranga have scored only seven times in their five matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low scoring match with the worst-case scenario likely being two combined goals scored in the first 90 minutes of regulation time. A 1-0 score — or even a nil-nil result after the first 90 minutes looks to be a more likely outcome. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-19 |
Tunisia v. Madagascar UNDER 2 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-131 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Madagascar (235789) and Tunisia (235790) in the Quarterfinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Madagascar (W2-D2-L0) reached the Quarterfinals on Sunday after defeating the Congo DR via Penalty Kicks by a 4-2 score after that match ended in a 2-2 deadlock after 120 minutes. Tunisia (W0-D4-L0) also advanced from the Round of 16 via Penalty Kicks by a 5-4 margin after their match with Ghana remained unresolved by a 1-1 score on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Madagascar has been the story of this tournament with the debutants pulling off upset wins over both the Congo DR and Nigeria in the Group Stage. Producing a clean sheet against the Super Eagles was impressive — and they also registered a shutout against Burundi. Madagascar has deployed a daring style of play in this tournament that has surprised their opponents — but they may tighten up now with the prospects of reaching the Semifinals. This remains a side that lacks difference makers so they may struggle to score as they did against lowly Burundi where they scored just once. They face a Tunisia side that is quite content to see this match resolved via penalty kicks. The Eagles of Carthage have not seen more than two combined goals scored in all four of their matches in this tournament. Tunisia has not produced a victory within 120 minutes of all four of their matches. They have scored only three goals in this event — but they have allowed only three goals as well. The Eagles of Carthage were close to registering a clean sheet on Monday before Ghana scored in the first minute of extra time of regulation to force an additional 30 minutes of play.
FINAL TAKE: Twelve of the seventeen combined goals scored in then matches these two teams have played in this tournament have come in the second half. With it being very possible that this match will remain scoreless going into the second half, expect a very low scoring result after the first 90 minutes. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Madagascar (235789) and Tunisia (235790). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
United States v. Mexico OVER 2 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) remained unbeaten in the 2019 Gold Cup after they defeated Jamaica in the Semifinals of this tournament by a 3-1 score. Mexico (W4-D1-L0) made it to the championship of this event when they defeated Haiti on Tuesday by a 1-0 score. This match is being played in Chicago’s Soldier Field.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The United States had not conceded a goal in this tournament before the Reggae Boyz broke that seal in the 69th minute of that match. Jamaica is a defensive-oriented team who had to push their aggressiveness after falling behind by a 2-0 score. The Stars and Stripes have played a group of teams in this tournament who tend to play back to defend which choosing their battles with counter attacks. This will be the most aggressive opponent they will have faced in this event against this Mexico team that likes to play on their front foot. Rookie manager Gregg Berhalter has this team playing more ambitiously as well by implementing a counter pressing attack. This is a formula for higher scoring matches when facing the more talented and offensively oriented teams in the world. The US backline was demonstrating some vulnerabilities in their friendlies in preparation for this tournament — especially in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela on June 9th. But what has been the most impressive development for this team has been the emerging chemistry between their two young stars Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie. Both players scored on Wednesday with Pulisi scoring the final two goals for the US in that match in their victory over Jamaica. They have combined to score five of the Stars and Stripes fifteen goals. They will likely be joined by veteran forward Jozy Altidore who started in the match against Jamaica after beginning this tournament on the bench. Altidore had 42 goals for the USMNT. Mexico has also scored fifteen goals in their five matches. Yet El Tri has scored only one goal in the first 90 minutes of their last two matches. Much of the reason for that is that Haiti and Costa Rica in the quarterfinals were content on playing lower scoring matches. Mexico allowed seven goals in their four World Cup matches last summer so they have shown themselves vulnerable to opponents that play aggressively.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this match — and I expect at least three combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes with both of these teams likely to push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-39) has won five of their last eight games after they defeated the Yankees in the third game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. New York (57-30) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the loss on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. They close out the first half of the regular season with the Over going a decisive 36-13-2 in their last 51 games on the road — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bronx Bombers have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when priced in the +125 to -125 price range. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games played in the day Over the Total. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-3 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has seen his productivity decline this year. His bases-on-balls are up — he is walking 9.9% of the batters he is facing as compared to his 6.5% walk rate last season. And his strikeouts are down — he is punching out 27.6% of the batters he has faced as compared to his elite 32.3% strikeout rate last season. Paxton has also struggled on the road where his ERA rise to a 5.12 mark along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in six starts. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Paxton on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen their bullpen blow saves in the last two games of this series — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after suffering two blown saves in a row. The Rays’ bullpen has a 6.82 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP over their last seven games. Tampa Bay has also played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after playing a fellow AL East rival in their last three games. And the Over is 7-1-2 in the Rays’ last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Morton who is 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics predict regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.51 and 3.22 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.94 mark. The Rays have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Morton facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Morton pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .892 over that span. The Over is 35-12-2 in New York’s last 49 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers overall. The Yankees have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing on the artificial turf featured at Tropicana Field. Despite the profile of these two starting pitchers, expect a higher scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. USA (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W6-D0-L0) reached the Finals of the Women’s World Cup with their 1-0 victory over Sweden on Wednesday. The United States (W6-D0-L0) advanced to this championship match on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory over England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: When Christen Press scored her header in the 10th minute of that match with England, it was the sixth straight time that the United States scored the opening goal in the first ten minutes of the match. Putting their opponents on the back foot changes the tempo of the match since the other team has to play more aggressively with their need to score to tie the match. Both teams have scored in all three of the Stars and Stripes matches in the Knockout Stage of this tournament. All three of those matches also saw at least three combined goals scored. The Americans have scored at least twice in all six of their matches in this tournament — and they are one goal away from tying the World Cup record of 25 goals in one event. The Netherlands had scored in eight of their previous ten matches in the second half before their match with Sweden needed extra time after the nil-nil score after 90 minutes. The Orange Lionesses have a powerful front-three attack with Lieke Martens, Shanice van de Sandeen, and Vivianne Miedema — and they also have a super sub at forward in Lineth Beerensteyn. Defense was considered the weak link for this team but they have been able to embrace defensive tactics in this tournament by always being the first to score and never trailing in any of their six matches.
FINAL TAKE: The Netherlands enter this match on a 257 minute shutout streak — but that dynamic changes if they find themselves trailing for the first time in this tournament. The Dutch scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches to win the 2017 Euro Championship. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 11 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. THE SITUATION: Boston (47-41) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-6 score. Detroit (28-55) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Porcello who is 5-7 with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander suffered through a terrible June where he had a 6.46 ERA. Over his last two starts which includes his disastrous 1/3 inning of work in London against the Yankees last Saturday, Porcello has a 15.71 ERA along with a 2.77 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. Perhaps the warning signs regarding regression for the 30-year old were in the second half of last season where he had an ERA of 4.54. Gopher balls have always been a problem for Porcello. He allowed 1.27 home runs per 9 innings last year — and this year he is allowing 1.24 homers per 9 innings. But while Porcello struck out 8.9 batters per 9 innings last year, that number has dropped to 7.28 strikeouts per 9 innings. Porcello struck out 23.5% of the batters he faced last year but that number has dropped to 18.3% this season. Porcello has also seen his walk rate rise from 5.9% of the batters he faced last year to 7.2% of the batters he has faced this season. Overall, his K%-BB% mark of 11.1% is his lowest in a Red Sox uniform and a far cry from his career high mark of 17.6% from last year. Porcello has particularly struggled on the road (and his disaster in London was officially listed as a home game) where he has a 5.15 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Porcello on the mound — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Porcello facing a team with a losing record. Porcello also struggles in day games where his ERA rises to a 6.23 mark along with a 1.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. He faces a Tigers team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games (as compared to their 3.6 Runs-Per-Game scoring average) along with an improved .257 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .718 over that span. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs this month — and the Over is also 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Zimmermann who is 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when pitching at home in Comerica Park where his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in four starts this season which included a long stint on the disabled list. Zimmermann does come off a nice performance where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work against Washington — but the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Zimmermann following up a Quality Start. Detroit has also played 17 of their last 24 day games Over the Total with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a red-hot Red Sox team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .338 batting average along with a .383 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .965 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-19 |
Senegal v. Uganda UNDER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750) in the Round of 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations. Senegal (2W-0D-1L) reached the Knockout Stage of the African Nations Cup with their 3-0 victory over Kenya on Monday. Uganda (1W-1D-1L) comes off a 2-0 loss to Egypt in their last Group Stage match on Sunday but still qualified as one of the sixteen teams in this tournament on the basis of accruing 4 points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Senegal has sixteen players from the group that was 1W-1D-1L in last summer’s World Cup. They are led by Sadio Mane who stars for Liverpool in the English Premier League — but this is a defensive-minded group. The Lions of Teranga have registered six clean sheets in their last eight matches. Their defensive efforts are led by 6’5 Kalidou Koulibaly who anchors their backline. Senegal has allowed only one goal in this tournament. But they had scored only two goals in their first two matches before scoring three times in their last match against an overmatched Kenya side. With their top goalkeeper, Eduard Mendy, out with an injury, the Lions of Teranga will probably play even more cautiously as to not risk overwhelming their backup keeper. They will not face an explosive offensive attack from this Uganda team that has scored only three times in this tournament. The Cranes have been left scoreless in four of their last eight matches overall. This is the second straight African Cup for Uganda — and this is the first time they have reached the Knockout Stage since 1978. But this group is a bit distracted with the players refusing to train on Wednesday as a protest for unpaid bonuses they earned when they defeated the Democratic Republic of Congo in their opening match of this tournament. The Cranes best player may be their goalkeeper, Denis Onyango, who is one of the best keepers in the continent. Uganda has allowed only three goals in their three Afcon matches.
FINAL TAKE: Uganda has seen two combined goals scored in all three of their Group Stage matches — and their previous three matches before this tournament did not produce more than two combined goals. Senegal has only had one of their matches see more than two combined goals in this tournament — and only one of their four prior matches in 2019 generated more than two combined goals. I suspect Uganda fails to score in this match with the very high probability that no more than two combined goals being scored — making a push (at 2.0) the likely worst-case scenario. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-19 |
Phillies v. Braves OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Atlanta (51-36) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 9-2 win over the Phillies. Philadelphia (45-41) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a victory by at least six runs — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Over is 14-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 20 games are scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have been an offensive juggernaut when playing at home in SunTrust Park where they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .840. The Over is 15-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Soroka who is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in six home starts as compared to his 1.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 4-1-1 in Soroka’s last 6 starts — and the Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a fellow NL East opponent. He faces a Phillies team that has seen the Over go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the first two games of this series have finished Under the Total, the Phillies have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They give the ball to Eflin who is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression — and this may be well underway already — with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.64 and 4.75 moving forward. Elfin had a 4.02 ERA in his last five starts in the month of June — and he has surrendered 19 base hits in his last two starts spanning only 11 innings. Eflin has not been as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.62 along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in nine starts. The Over is 3-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 road games with Eflin facing a team with a winning record — and Philly has played 11 of their last 14 Over the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range with Eflin on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 11-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Expect a high scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Mexico v. Haiti OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (3W-1D-0L) survived their Quarterfinals match with Costa Rica on Saturday by winning via a shootout by a 5-4 margin after that game ended with a 1-1 score after 120 minutes of play. Haiti (4W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals earlier on Sunday with their 3-2 upset win over Canada. This match will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Haiti has fully embraced the role of the Cardiac Kids in this tournament with three of their four victories occurring after initializing allowing the first goal in that game. Les Grenadiers rallied from 1-0 deficits to defeat both Bermuda and Costa Rica by 2-1 scores in the Group Stage. Those results gave this team confidence even when they went into halftime trailing by a 2-0 score to Canada in the Quarterfinals. Haiti kept to their game plan on relying on counter-attacks — and they scored three times in the second half to steal that match from the Canadians. With an average age of just over 24-years of age, this is the youngest team in this tournament. But they are also surging with confidence. They are unlikely to secure a clean sheet in this match. However, this Haiti team will keep on attacking even if they fall behind. They have scored nine times in their four matches despite having an average possession of the ball for just 38.1% of the time in these contests. Counter-attacking sides have often been the Achilles’ heel of the Mexican national team. El Tri has surrendered at least one goal in three of their four matches in this event. Their nervy Quarterfinals match with an angry Costa Rica side motivated to redeem themselves from blowing their 1-0 lead against Haiti was the first time in eight matches under new manager Tito Martino where they did not score at least three goals. Mexico has scored fourteen goals in this tournament. They did not lack for pressure against Costa Rica as they had 22 shots attempts in that match.
FINAL TAKE: With the quick turnaround for this Semifinals match, legs may be tired for both sides. That should help the offenses for each respective team. I expect to see both teams score in the first 90 minutes of this match with at least one of these teams scoring twice over that span. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Argentina v. Brazil UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). THE SITUATION: Argentina (2W-1D-1L) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America with their 2-0 win over Venezuela on Friday. Brazil (2W-2D-0L) joined them in the Semifinals later that day with their 0-0 draw with Paraguay which they survived by winning the shootout by a 4-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Argentina is a work in progress as their national program rebuilds from their disappointing World Cup last summer where they lost in the Round of 16 to France. Manager Lionel Scaloni has tried to have his team play more pragmatically since that tournament. La Albiceleste is playing better defense as this event moves forward as they have registered two straight clean sheets. But they have only scored five goals in their four matches despite having Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero on the pitch. They will be playing a Brazil team that has yet to concede a goal in this tournament. But the Selecao has struggled in three of their four matches which have resulted in their fans jeering them for underachieving. Brazil has not scored a goal in two of their four matches against Venezuela in their second Group Stage match and then against Paraguay last Friday night. This team has often played with nervous energy in front of their home fans as the host nation. They are a bit undermanned with Richarlison unavailable for them in the midfield as he deals with a case of the mumps. The Selecao did not score a goal against Paraguay despite having a man advantage on the pitch after a red card gave them an 11 to 10 man advantage in the 58th minute of that match. Yet Brazil could not muster even one goal with the man advantage for those remaining 32 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are searching for confidence right now. Argentina has never won an international title in the Messi era. After losing in the 2014 World Cup Finals to Germany, La Albiceleste has been a national program in decline. Brazil lost to the Germans by a 7-1 score in the Semifinals of that World Cup in the Estadio Mineiro that will host this match. Since that match, the Brazilian fans have had little patience for their team. This shapes up to be a low scoring match where neither team takes too many chances in the hopes that their talent will make the difference late in the match. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. THE SITUATION: Boston (44-40) returns stateside after getting swept in their two-game series in London against the Yankees where they followed up a 17-13 loss on Saturday with a 12-8 loss on Sunday. Toronto (32-53) has won three of their last four games with their 11-4 win over Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 10 runs in their last game to a fellow AL East rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 10 runs in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Red Sox bullpen surrendered ten runs on Sunday, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least four runs. The Over is also a decisive 41-16-2 in Boston’s last 59 games after an off day. They stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. They have also played 28 of their last 43 games when priced at -150 or higher. They give the ball to Price who is 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts — but those numbers climb to a 3.60 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 on the road. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at home against the White Sox, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .307 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .930 over that span — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays stay at home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. Toronto has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Thornton who is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective a home where his ERA rises to a 6.39 mark with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in seven starts. The Blue Jays have played 4 straight games Over the Total at home with Thornton on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home with Thornton facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .328 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .924 in those games. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between two teams when playing in Toronto. 20* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
USA (W) v. England (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (5W-0D-0L) defeated France by a 2-1 score on Friday in that Quarterfinals showdown. England (5-0-0) reached the Semifinals on Thursday when they defeated Norway by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England entered that match with Norway with two significant doubts on their backline with Steph Houghton dealing with an ankle injury and Millie Bright ill with a virus that spread through the team. Both central defenders ended up playing and played important roles in the clean sheet. With five days of rest and recuperation since that match, both defenders should be closer to full strength for this showdown. The Three Lionesses defense has been outstanding in this tournament as they have conceded only one goal in their opening match against Scotland. England is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right back in the world of women’s soccer. She will be assigned to slow down Megan Rapinoe in this match — and she will have an advantage of being very familiar with the pitch with this being played in Lyon where she plays professionally. The Three Lionesses have scored eleven goals in their five matches which is a healthy amount — but after scoring only five goals in their three Group Stage matches, this team may be prepared to grind out a low scoring match with the Americans. Team USA has been spectacular on defense in this tournament as they have also only surrendered two goals. A question mark for this group entering this event regarded how Crystal Dunn would play at left back since this put the attacker out of position in playing on the backline. Dunn has steadily improved and rewarded manager Jill Ellis’ choice to put her on the pitch in the Starting XI as she played her best game in this World Cup. The Stars and Stripes did not allow a shot on target in the first half by the French. And they held Les Bleus to only one goal despite allowing them to have possession for 61% of that match. On paper, the USA looks like an offensive juggernaut with its whopping 22 goals in this tournament. But after their 13-0 win over Thailand to begin this tournament, they have scored only nine goals in their last four matches which is much closer to England’s more modest scoring efficiency. This US team has become more defensive oriented when Ellis moved Julie Ertz from the backline to the middle as a holding midfielder.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the She Believes Cup back on March 2nd which resulted in a 2-2 draw. I expect this rematch with the stakes much higher to be a defensive struggle with both teams being careful to not allow their opponents to seize scoring chances. 25* Women’s World Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-39) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-6 loss in Cincinnati yesterday. Pittsburgh (39-43) has lost two in a row after their 2-1 loss in Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less in their last game. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when facing an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Alzolay who is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 8 2/3 innings of pitching this year after being called up from Triple-A. Obviously, we are dealing with a very small sample size — but there are some things to be worried about with the rookie. First, Alzolay has already issued six bases-on-balls in those 8 1/3 innings of work. Second, this will be his first time pitching in a hostile ballpark in his career at the major league level. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.30 and 5.44 based on his peripheral numbers — so I do not put much stock in his current ERA. Alzolay faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .298 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in the Pirates’ last 21 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 9-3-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games at home Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Pirates have only scored two runs in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in two straight contests. Pittsburgh returns home here the Over is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games. Additionally, the Pirates have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Williams who is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has struggled with a 6.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Pittsburgh has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Williams pitching at home. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The last meeting between these two teams ended with the Cubs pulling a 2-0 loss in Wrigley Field back on April 11th. The Pirates have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-19 |
Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (913) and the New York Mets (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-34) has won six of their last eight games after they won Game Two of this series last night by a 5-4 score. New York (37-47) has lost seven straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by one run over a fellow NL East rival. The Over is also 10-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 20 road games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5, the Braves have played 13 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Fried who is 9-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.50 mark along with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in eight starts (ten games). Atlanta has played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Fried comes off a good effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work in Chicago against the Cubs (but his troubling walk rate as of late continued as he issued five bases on balls) — and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games when Fried is looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York has played 16 of their last 24 games in the month of June Over the Total. The Mets have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored in the -100 to -150 price range — and this includes them playing nine of their last thirteen games at home Over the Total when favored up to the -150 price. New York has also played 34 of their last 50 games Over the Total when playing at night
|
06-30-19 |
Rangers v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-6 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Texas (46-37) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 5-2 loss to the Rays. Tampa Bay (47-36) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 15 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Texas bullpen has pitched only five combined innings in their last three games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not logged more than 5 combined innings in their last three contests. The Rangers have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total in the month of June. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. Jesse Chavez takes the mound with his 3-2 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 51 2/3 innings of work. The veteran right-hander is making his first start of the season because he has allowed only one earned run in his last 14 1/3 innings of work while striking out 14 batters and walking just one over that span. Working mostly in long relief this season, Chavez has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.37 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 26 1/3 innings of work as compared to his 4.26 ERA along with a .271 opponent’s batting average at home. Chavez’s teams have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when he is making a start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a slumping Rays’ team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .202 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 over that span. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Rays’ last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Rays’ last 9 games at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Snell who is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has really struggled as of late having not completed four complete innings in three straight starts. He is struggling with his curveball which has allowed hitters to sit on his fastball. But his velocity on his fastball is still good at 96 MPH and he has an effective changeup as a counter to it. His last two starts have been on the road against two of the best offenses in baseball against the Yankees and Twins — so maybe just returning home will help cure what ails him. Snell has gotten pounded on the road where he has a 6.48 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 — but he has been very good at home with a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.20 moving forward. Tampa Bay has played 21 of their last 35 games Under the Total with Snell on the hill after a win. He should find success against this Rangers team that is hitting only .228 against left-handed starting pitchers with a .307 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .693. Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Costa Rica v. Mexico OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Haiti last Monday. Mexico (3W-0D-0L) completed their three-game sweep in Group Stage play with their 3-2 victory over Martinique last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica will have an opportunity to redeem themselves from suffering an upset loss to an upstart Haiti side that rallied from a 1-0 halftime deficit to score twice in the second half. That comeback certainly raises questions about the quality of the Los Ticos backline. They also surrendered a goal to a weak Bermuda side in Group Stage play after earning a clean sheet against a disappointing Nicaragua team in their opening match. Costa Rica competed in last summer’s World Cup and gave up goals in all three of their Group Stage matches. Los Ticos should rebound with a strong effort in the role of the underdog with this opportunity to knock off Mexico who are the favorites to win this tournament. Costa Rica has scored seven times in their three games — and they have scored at least one goal in four of their last five matches in all competitions. Mexico showed some leakiness with their defense by surrendering two goals to a weak Martinique team. Issues on defense have already become an issue under new manager Tito Martino who came over after leading the Atlanta United to the MLS championship last year. The former Barcelona skipper has seen El Tri give up a goal in six of the seven matches he has coached for the national team. Mexico also gave up seven goals in their four matches in last summer’s World Cup where they also failed to register a clean sheet. There one shutout under Martino was in this tournament in their opening match against Cuba which was a team that saw their captain defect before the match started. But this El Tri group can score goals. They have a whopping thirteen goals in this event — and they have scored at least three goals in all seven matches under Martino (which have all been victories).
FINAL TAKE: This match has a 2-1 score (minimum) written all over it. Mexico will get their goals — and a feisty Costa Rica side should find the back of the net at least once. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11 |
Top |
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: New York (52-28) begins this series having won three straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contest — after their 8-7 victory over Toronto on Thursday. Boston (44-38) has lost three of their last five games after their 8-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. While the Red Sox are the technical home team who will bat last in this series, this game is being played on a neutral field at London Stadium in England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by just one run. New York has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in the Bronx Bombers’ last 51 games on the road. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the right-hander calls for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.96 moving forward. Tanaka has not been as effective away from Yankee Stadium as he owns a 3.89 ERA on the road in six starts as compared to his 2.84 ERA at home. And while Tanaka comes off a nice outing where he allowed only two runs in 6 innings of work against the Astros — but the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games when Tanaka is on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Over is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games with Tanaka facing the Red Sox. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitching. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .310 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .868 over that span. Additionally, the Over is 40-16-2 in Boston’s last 58 games after an off day — and the Over is 29-14-2 in their last 45 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total in contests with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games against fellow AL East opponents. They counter with Porcello who is 5-7 with a 4.52 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander either with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.89 and 5.02 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Porcello has struggled away from Fenway Park where he has a 5.15 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.11 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when pitching in Fenway. The Red Sox have played 3 of their last 4 games with Porcello pitching with the Total set at 11 or higher. He faces a powerful Yankee lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .935.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Expect a high scoring game between these two teams swinging hot bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. Italy (W) OVER 2.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Japan on Tuesday. Italy (3W-0D-1L) advanced to the Quarterfinals the same day with a 2-0 victory over China.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Netherlands scored in the 90th minute on a penalty kick conversion by Lieke Martens. But the Orange Lionesses were fortunate to survive that match with Japan controlling the pace of play for the last 20 minutes of the second half while blowing a number of good scoring opportunities. Japan had 12 shots in that match. The defense for the Netherlands appeared to be the weak link for this team when they began this tournament. While Stephanie van der Gragt is a strong and physical defender, the rest of the group in the backline is a young and inexperienced group that may not be as talented as some of the defenders in the Quarterfinals. The Dutch have surrendered a goal in three straight matches. And while they did enjoy a clean sheet against New Zealand to open this tournament, remember that the Kiwis were a defensive-oriented side that scored only three goals in their three Group Stage matches before being eliminated. The Netherlands route to reaching the Semifinals will likely require them scoring multiple goals — but they have the elite forward talent that can accomplish this task with Martens joined by Vivianne Miedema and Shanice van de Sandeen along with the 22-year old Lineth Beerensteyn who has found success coming off the bench. The Orange Lionesses have scored eight goals in this tournament. The Dutch also scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches in the 2017 Euro Championship — so high scoring games were the norm for them in winning that tournament. Italy has scored nine times in this event with multiple goals scored in three of their four matches. There was plenty of action in their match with China as Le Azzurre attempted 17 shots with the Chinese making 20 shot attempts. Italy pushes the pace of play in a free-flowing style. Both teams have scored at least one goal in six of their last nine matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this match to play out similar to the Netherlands’ contest with Japan where the match became level at 1-1 about midway before a team broke out to score a second goal. 25* Women’s World Cup FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
Chile v. Colombia OVER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). THE SITUATION: Colombia (3W-0D-0L) won all three of their Group Stage matches after they defeated Paraguay by a 1-0 score last Sunday. Chile (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Colombia has scored four goals in their three victories — and they have not surrendered a goal in their three Group Stage matches. But after registering a clean sheet against the mess that remains the current Argentina national team (despite having Lionel Messi), Los Cafeteros have not faced offensive juggernauts in Qatar and then Paraguay on Sunday. Paraguay generated 10 shots while controlling possession for 54% of that match — so it is not as if Colombia has been stifling on the defensive end of the pitch. Los Cafeteros play their two fullbacks high which makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Their backline is considered their biggest vulnerability. This team also has the reputation of folding versus elite teams — and they continued to enable that perception with losses last summer to Japan and then England in the Round of 16 of the World Cup. Colombia is winless in their last nine matches against a Chile team that is the two-time defending champions of the Copa America. I suspect that Los Cafeteros will surrender at least one goal — but they should also score at least once in this match. Colombia plays a direct style with a possession-based attack. They are led by one of the best-attacking midfielders in the world in James Rodriguez who was a breakout star for them in Brazil (this locale this summer) in the 2014 World Cup. He is complemented by a veteran attacker in Radamel Falcao. They will be challenged by a Chile side that showed grit and determination in their 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday. La Roja seems to be an aging team with Alexis Sanchez, Eduardo Vargas, and Arturo Vidal all past their primes. But this group controlled possession for 59% of their match against Uruguay before losing to an Edinson Cavani goal in the 82nd. Chile had a healthy 12 shots in that match. They have scored six times in this tournament as their loss on Monday was their first match in their last nine where they did not score at least one goal. La Roja’s defense takes a hit tonight with one of their leaders on their backline, Gary Medal, a doubt with an injury.
FINAL TAKE: Chile has scored and conceded at least one goal in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. I see both teams scoring in this match in what should be full of drama. Colombia wants to grab the torch from La Roja — but this proud Chile side will be very difficult to dethrone as the two-time reigning Copa America champions. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
USA (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Spain on Monday. France (4-0-0) made it to the Quarterfinals the day before with their 2-1 victory over Brazil that required the extra 30 minutes of time to resolve a 1-1 score after 90 minutes.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have potent offenses that tend to overwhelm lesser opponents. The question in handicapping this match is to discern whether or not the respective managers will continue to play aggressively or instead embrace more defensive tactics in this showdown that might very well determine the winner of this tournament. France manager Corinne Diacre tends to have her team play more cautiously when facing elite competition. A 1-0 win over Australia in April along with a 2-0 win over the Matildas last October and a 1-0 loss to Germany on February 28th of this year is evidence of this tactic. And after their opening 4-0 win over the Korea Republic, Les Bleus have scored only five combined goals (in 285 minutes of play). France managed only three shots on goal against Brazil on Sunday as their frontline struggled against the physical Brazilian backline. Les Bleus forwards and midfielders have too often appeared too scripted while lacking the cohesion of clicking together in more creative opportunities. That is not a good sign when facing an American team that has registered 18 clean sheets in their last 23 matches. Team USA saw their clean sheet streak of seven matches snapped on Monday against Spain. Perhaps not coincidentally, manager Jill Ellis did not start Lindsey Horan in that match out of fear that she would be whistled with a second yellow card which would suspend her for this showdown. Getting Horan back helps the US team on both ends of the pitch — but don’t underestimate her defensive capabilities particularly in tackling opposing players move the ball up the pitch. A key question for Ellis is what her starting midfield will be — particularly, whether or not she will start holding midfielder, Julie Ertz. I think she does as the Stars and Stripes improved significantly when Ertz was converted from the backline to the midfield to improve the defensive presence of this team — and it helps explain the clean sheet run the team is on. Questions have developed for the USWNT on offense after they managed only two shots on net against Spain. It is not a good sign that both their goals scored were from penalty kicks. Alex Morgan has been scoreless in her last three games as she seems to be slowed by nagging injuries. Megan Rapinoe is out of form on the pitch despite her two penalty kick goals on Monday. Spain provided a blueprint as to how to slow down the American attack: cut off the service to forwards, press the sometimes shaky US backline, and play rough with their attackers once they find a dangerous scoring position. With central defenders Wendie Renard and Griddle Mbock Bathy, Les Bleus have the prototype physical defenders that can make things difficult for the American attackers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times since March of 2017. The USA has scored only two goals in those three matches. This past success on defense will likely compel Diacre to have her team play cautiously with the advantage of playing this match on home soil in Paris. And I think Ellis will not have her squad push the agenda too hard precisely because this is a true road contest with the hopes that the skill and experience of her players will eventually make the difference. Expect no more than two combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes of this match. 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-19 |
United States v. Panama OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). THE SITUATION: The USMNT (2-0-0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals of the Gold Cup with their 6-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago last Saturday. Panama (2-0-0) joined them in the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 4-2 victory over Guyana on Saturday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The US Men’s National Team enjoyed their best effort under new manager Gregg Berhalter in this match which offered the team a small modicum of revenge against a Trinidad and Tobago team that eliminated them from qualifying for the 2018 World Cup back in November of 2017. Getting players like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie playing together for an extended period of time is certainly helping to build cohesion for this team. The offensive attack is looking up with the Stars and Stripes having scored ten goals in their two matches. And Berhalter deserves credit for his halftime adjustments considering that eight of these ten goals have been scored after halftime. Berhalter has installed a new system for the American national team that emphasizes possession along with counter pressing to retake control of the ball. This is an approach that can help produce blowout wins against overmatched foes (like Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana who were their first two opponents). The USA has generated a whopping 39 steals so far in this tournament. But defense remains an issue for this team despite them pony allowing 13 shots in their first two matches. Team USA struggled on defense in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela and a 1-0 loss to Jamaica in their last final two friendlies before this tournament. The Stars and Stripes lack quality center defenders — and Michael Bradley is their only midfielder with quality defensive skills (with Mckenzie who stars as a holding midfielder playing in Bundesliga being asked to play up on the pitch by Berhalter). Don’t be surprised if Panama finds plenty of scoring opportunities when they beat the American counter-press. Los Canaleros are also happy to counter-attack to regain possession as well — they have 34 steals in their first two matches in this tournament. Panama has scored six times in their two matches after taking 19 shots against Guyana with eight of them on target. The Red Wave are entering a new generation this year after seeing the retirement of longtime leaders in Blas Perez and Felipe Baloy. But this group will not be intimidated by playing the United States since they were actually in Russia last summer playing soccer in the World Cup while the Americans watched on television. Panama lost all three of their World Cup matches but they scored two goals while surrendering eleven goals with all three of their matches seeing at least three combined goals scored. Los Canaleros are 6W-4D-2L in their last twelve matches in the Gold Cup — and they have displayed prowess on the offensive side of the pitch in those matches by scoring 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 27th in a friendly where the United States won by a 3-0 score. First place in Group D is at stake with a match with Curacao in the Quarterfinals — and that is a more attractive opening match in the Knockout Stage than the loser’s match in the Quarterfinals with Jamaica. Both teams should be playing to win — expect a higher scoring match between two teams that push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (32-43) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks. Arizona (38-39) has lost five straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants played their fourth straight game Over the Total last night — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Fran’s last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have now played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL East opponents. Furthermore, the Giants have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 17 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, San Francisco has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. The former first-round pick picked up his first win in MLB on Monday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers — but he still has a troubling 6.75 ERA when pitching on the road. Beede has also struggled in night games where he has a 7.97 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. The rookie has an uninspiring 32:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least five runs. This team has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Godley who is 3-4 with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in fifteen appearances which include eleven starts. The right-hander has been clobbered when pitching at home in Chase Field where he has a 7.09 ERA in eight games which includes five starts. Godley also is saddled with a 7.33 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 in six starts (eleven appearances) at night. The seeds in Godley’s decline were evident last year where his Ground Ball rate declined by 6.5% while his walk rate of 4.09 Bases-on-Balls per 9 innings was over 1.0 Walk higher per 9 innings than in 2017. Godley will not pitch deep into this game — especially when considering that he had an ugly 9.20 ERA when going through the batting order for the third time last year. But the Arizona bullpen has struggled with a 7.22 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in their last seven games. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Godley facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total. Expect another higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Australia (W) v. Norway (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-144 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). THE SITUATION: Norway (2-0-1) finished with six points in Group Stage play with their 2-1 win over South Korea on Monday. Australia (2-0-1) also punched their ticket into the Knockout Stage with a decisive 4-1 victory over Jamaica on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Sam Kerr scored four times on Tuesday against the Reggae Girlz to propel the Matildas to eight goals scored in their three matches which is the second most for any team in this tournament. Australia is a high-scoring team with their pressing style under manager Ante Milicic. But this high-risk/high-reward approach makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks especially when considering that their backline has some deficiencies. The Matildas have surrendered five goals in their three Group State matches. This style also tends to enable wild contests. Australia blew a 1-0 lead in their opening match against Italy that resulted in a 2-1 loss — but their aggressive tactics were exactly what they needed against Brazil as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat them by a 3-2 score. With talents like Kerr and Caitlin Foord up top, it makes sense for the Matildas to deploy this approach. But in a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands and a 5-3 loss to the United States in the lead up to this tournament, this strategy has its vulnerabilities. This Norway team is very good despite being without their best player, Ada Hegerberg, who is boycotting participation with the national team given their unequal treatment of women’s athletics. The Grass Hoppers have scored five goals in this tournament which a 2-1 loss to the host nation, France, who are one of the top favorites to lift the championship trophy. Norway still has quality players — led by Caroline Graham Hansen who is expected to play this afternoon after suffering a knock in that match with South Korea this week. The Grass Hoppers scored 22 goals in their eight qualifying matches for this World Cup. As one of the traditional European powers that have won a World Cup back in 1995, they have a balanced and talented group of players who should find plenty of scoring opportunities in a counter-attack against the aggressive tactics of Australia. But I am concerned about their defense after allowing South Korea to attempt 22 shots against them on Tuesday.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year in the Algarve Cup with Australia pulling out a 4-3 shootout. While seven combined goals may be too much to expect in this contest, I do expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Curacao v. Honduras UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). THE SITUATION: Curacao (0-0-1) lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 1-0 loss to El Salvador on Monday. Honduras (0-0-1) also lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 3-2 loss to Jamaica on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at Houston’s BBVA Compass Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Curacao did not display much energy on the offensive end of the pitch against El Salvador. They managed only three shots in that contest as they never tested the Salvador goalkeeper, Henry Hernandez. This is just the second Gold Cup ever for this island colony of the Netherlands. This team failed to score a goal in their three Group Stage matches in the 2017 Gold Cup. But this team is not necessarily pushovers either with the majority of the roster playing in the professional leagues of the Netherlands. In their four matches in the CONCACAF Nations League Qualifiers, Curacao allowed only two goals while producing three clean sheets. Honduras has only scored four goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Los Catrachos did not score a goal in their four Gold Cup matches in 2017. But they only allowed five goals in those four matches which culminated in a narrow 1-0 loss in the Quarterfinals to Mexico. The three goals they allowed against Jamaica needs to be taken with some context as the Reggae Boyz were playing on their home pitch in Kington in National Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: Honduras was able to make the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Gold Cup with just one point given their draw with Canada which ended in a scoreless draw — so do not underestimate the value these teams put in a nil-nil result. With the Total set at 2.5, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group C Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-37) comes off a four-game sweep of the Brewers after their 8-7 victory on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (33-40) has won two of their last three games with their 8-7 win over Detroit on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games after an off day. The Padres have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after a win. And while the San Diego bullpen did not allow a run in their last game against the Brewers, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. The Padres stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived in the spacious confirms of Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.81 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in his six starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .855 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 14-4-2 in the Pirates’ last 20 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Over is 21-5-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Pirates have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Pittsburgh stays at home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen appearances) this year. The left-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has a 5.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in six starts. The Pirates have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Musgrove on the hill. He also faces a hot-hitting team right now with the Padres scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .331 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .961 in those games. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in mid-May with the Pirates winning the last three games on the road despite being the underdog. The Padres have played 23 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge after being upset as a home favorite in their last two games with their current opponent. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
Mystics v. Aces UNDER 166.5 |
Top |
95-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Mystics (647) and the Las Vegas Aces (648). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 81-52 blowout upset victory at Los Angeles as a 1.5-point underdog. Las Vegas (4-3) has won their last two games with their 80-75 victory at Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mystics won their game in LA on Tuesday based off the strength of their strong play on defense as they held the Sparks to just 28.8% shooting from the field. Washington stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Mystics have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Washington has scored at least 71 points in their last seven games after beginning the year by scoring only 69 points — and they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after scoring at least 70 points in four straight games. The Mystics have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Las Vegas has seen the Under go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Aces’ last 5 games after a point spread loss. Las Vegas won that game despite the Lynx making 42.6% from the field which was the Aces’ worst defensive effort in their last five games. Under former Detroit Pistons’ star Bill Laimbeer, this Las Vegas team has taken on a defense-first identity like his Bad Boys’ teams. They limit their visitors to just 34.2% shooting from the field on their home court which results in just 71.7 PPG. The extra days of rest should help the energy of this team on defense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Under is also 6-0-1 in the Aces’ last 7 games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the favorite. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Las Vegas has played 6 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total — and this includes these two teams playing five of their last six encounters Under the Total when playing in Las Vegas. Finally, these team trends are complemented by a historical WNBA angle that has been 72% effective since 1997. In games with the Total set at 140 or higher in the month of June, when the home team comes off a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as the favorite, these games then finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 72 situations where these conditions applied. 25* WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Mystics (647) and the Las Vegas Aces (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
USA (W) v. Sweden (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). THE SITUATION: The United States (2-0-0) has won their first two matches in this World Cup with their 3-0 win over Chile last Saturday. Sweden (2-0-0) also has six points with two victories in their first two games with their 5-1 win over Thailand on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be very tempting for bettors to take the Over after Team USA racked up thirteen goals in their opening victory against Thailand. This Stars and Stripes team is loaded with scoring talent — and their midfielders and fullbacks like to play up the pitch. But a draw is enough of a result for the USA to win first place in Group F which is their immediate goal. This US team also needs to build skill and cohesion in their backline with two converted attackers being inserted into those two fullback positions by manager Jill Ellis. This contest against a good Swedish team is an opportunity to work on technical tactics. This team has dominated both their opponents as they have surrounded only three combined shots with neither opponent controlling possession for more than 30% of the contest. Team USA has not allowed a goal in their last six matches. They will face a Sweden team that is very familiar with their schemes and tactics. This will be the fourth meeting between these two national teams in the last five major international tournaments. The Blue and Yellow were triumphant in the last meeting between these two teams where the Swedes pulled the big upset in the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Olympics. Sweden’s conservative tactics where they play with a high back-line on the pitch while searching for opportunities to counter-attack is the anti-American scheme given their Stars and Stripes typical aggressiveness. The Blagurt have veterans in their middle field and a defensive line who have played in many of those matches with the Americans. Sweden also has an elite goalkeeper in Hedvi Lindhal playing in perhaps her last World Cup at 36-years old. Sweden has scored seven times in this tournament which is a bit of an aberration for this team. They scored only four goals in their four matches in the 2017 Euro Championship which ended in a disappointing loss in the Quarterfinals to the Netherlands. They scored just five times in their four matches in the 2015 World Cup where they lost in the Round of 16. They entered this tournament with just four goals in their previous four matches. But they surrendered a mere one goal in those final four matches — and they gave up only two goals in their eight World Cup Qualifying matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a tactical contest — especially with the stakes relatively low since both teams have clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. In the last five meetings between these two sides since 2013, all five matches saw no more than two combined goals scored. It was a nil-nil draw when these two teams faced off in the Group Stage of the 2015 World Cup. 25* Women’s World Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
New Zealand (W) v. Cameroon (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
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At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). THE SITUATION: Cameroon (0-0-2) has lost their two World Cup contests after suffering a 3-1 setback to the Netherlands last Saturday. New Zealand (0-0-2) has also lost their first two matches in this tournament after their 2-0 loss to Canada on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cameroon has only scored one goal in their two matches after they lost to Canada by a 1-0 score. The Indomitable Lions are a team on the rise with 12 players back from the group that competed in the 2015 World Cup. This team’s defense can be shaky on the defensive end of the pitch — but allowing three goals to a potent Netherlands attack is not terribly surprising. Manager Alain Djeumfa has had his team embrace defensive tactics to compensate for this potential deficiency while banking on the counterattacking skills of speedy forwards like Gabrielle Onguene and Galla Enganamouit. But this approach has contributed to a toothless attack for the Indomitable Lions. They did not generate a shot on target in their opening match against Canada. And while their offensive activity improved against the Netherlands, they managed only 11 shots with just four on target. Controlling possession has been an issue as they had the ball for just 39% of their match with the Dutch after controlling possession in just 26% of their match against Canada. New Zealand may play on their front foot in this match like they often do when facing the inferior competition of the Oceania Football Confederation. The Football Ferns play solid defense on the grandest of international stages — and that should not go away in this contest. New Zealand has allowed only three goals against the Netherlands and Canada who enter this third match with two wins apiece. But the Kiwis have yet to score in this event. They did not manage a shot on target against Canada while managing just three shots on target against the Dutch. New Zealand has only generated seven total shots in their two matches. In the 2015 World Cup, the Football Ferns scored only twice in their three matches but only surrendered three goals. Cameroon made it to the Knockout Stage in 2015 on the strength of a 6-0 win over an overmatched Ecuador side — but it is their 1-0 loss to China in the Round of 16 that will likely be a harbinger as to how this match will be played out.
FINAL TAKE: One side earning a clean sheet in this match is pretty high when considering that New Zealand has seen at least one side go scoreless in nine of their last ten matches. Eight of the last ten matches played by the Kiwis have seen less than three combined goals scored. Both teams need a victory — and then help with goal differential — to advance to the Knockout Stage. However, since a draw helps neither side — I expect the first team to score in this match will then park the bus in back to do everything they can to preserve that lead. 25* World Cup Group E Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-19 |
White Sox v. Cubs UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (979) and the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (35-36) won the opening game of this series last night with their 3-1 victory. The White Sox have won four of their last six games while the Cubs (39-33) has lost four of their last five contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And while the White Sox have not committed an error in three straight games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after not committing an error in two straight contests. This team has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 46-21-3 in their last 70 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Giolito who is 10-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 in thirteen starts. The young phenom has allowed only one earned run over his last three starts for a minuscule 0.43 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP over 21 innings. The right-hander has been particularly effective on the road where he owns a 1.48 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156 in six starts. The White Sox have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with Giolito on the hill — and this includes them playing their last 4 road games Under the Total with him on the hill. The White Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Giolito looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a low .223 batting average along with a .270 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635.
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06-18-19 |
Australia (W) v. Jamaica (W) OVER 4.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). THE SITUATION: Australia (1-0-1) earned their three points last Thursday with a 3-2 victory over Brazil. Jamaica (0-0-2) lost their second straight match in the World Cup by losing to Italy by a 5-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia found themselves in dire straits as they trailed the Brazilians by a 2-0 score — and that came after suffering a 2-1 upset loss to Italy in their opening match. But the Matildas scored a late goal in extra time of the first half to get on the board and they completed their three-goal rally by scoring twice in the second half to stun the Selecao. That comeback victory should trigger confidence in this Australian team that limped into the World Cup with two straight losses. Expectations have never been higher for this Matildas team that has reached the Quarterfinals in the last three World Cups as well as the 2016 Olympics. This is probably the best roster this national team has ever assembled. But a 5-3 loss to the USA on May 3rd followed by a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands on June 1st left some questions on the table for this group. Australia is loaded with scoring firepower led by their 25-year old captain, Sam Kerr, who is one of the best goal scorers in the world. New manager Ante Milicic (who took over amidst scandal from the previous dirtbag manager of the Matildas) implemented a high-risk/high-reward pressing system a la the schemes used by Liverpool and Manchester City in the English Premier League. The goal is to create more scoring opportunities to take better advantage of their elite talent of Kerr and other players like forward Caitlin Foord. It worked for a bit against the US as those tactics created a 2-1 lead in that April friendly match. But the risk of pushing forward on the attack with left and right backs, Steph Catley and Ellie Carpenter, jetting up the pitch to support their scoring opportunities is that they become very vulnerable to counter attacks. Team USA burned them by rallying to score three goals to win that match before the Dutch scored three more goals against them in that last friendly. Australia has scored and conceded four goals in their first two World Cup matches. With three points and tied with Brazil for second place in Group C play, goal differential may play a critical role as a tie-breaker. That means that the Matildas are highly likely to keep their foot on the proverbial accelerator in this match as they look to pile on the goals. But this strategy risks them conceding goals to the Reggae Girlz. Frankly, this Jamaica team is happy to be competing at this event after seeing their program dormant from 2008 to 2014. The daughter of Bob Marley, Cedella Marley, infused the national team with money to jumpstart the women’s team who then qualified for this World Cup with their third place finish in last year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifier. The Reggae Girlz are young and inexperienced with seven of their players under the age of 22. But they are fast and happy to take their chances on the counter-attack. They have conceded eight goals in their two matches — but they have dynamic goal scorers led by Khadijah “Bunny” Shaw. The former Tennessee Volunteer has 31 goals in 23 caps for the national team and is an imposing presence on the pitch with her 5’11 frame. Jamaica had scored nine goals in their last four friendlies before this tournament — but they also allowed seven goals in those four matches.
FINAL TAKE: Australia should win this match easily as they press to score as many goals as they can to help their positioning. Winning Group C remains possible if Brazil defeats an undefeated Italian team — but they will need to plenty of goals to seize the goal differential tie-breaker. Jamaica is leaky on their back end — but I will not be surprised if they leave this match relatively happy by scoring their first ever goal in World Cup competition. 25* Women’s World Cup Group C Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-19 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
3-12 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
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At 7:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: New York (34-37) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Atlanta (42-30) has won nine of their last ten games after they crushed Philadelphia yesterday by a 15-1 score on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 games after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta’s bullpen has pitched 9 1/3 combined innings over their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged in at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Braves’ last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish on the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.93 and 3.59 moving forward. Soroka opened the season with an unsustainable low Batting Average for the Balls he Allowed Into Play (BABIP) and Home Run to Fly Ball rate — and the that he is still leaving 77.6% of the runners left on base when retiring the side is well above the league average. But the right-hander has seen the Regression Gods already visit him a few times this month as he has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts while striking out only 14 batters in 19 2/3 innings of work. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.03 mark along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts as compared to his filthy 1.11 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .154 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total in night games. They counter with Wheeler who is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 5.48 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in seven starts. The Over is 7-3-2 in the Mets’ last 12 road games with Wheeler on the mound. The Over is also 6-0-2 in New York’s last 8 games with Wheeler pitching on five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 9.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .342 batting average along with a .402 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.056 over that span. Atlanta is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have scored at least nine runs twelve times this season. They face a pitcher in Wheeler who has already surrendered 13 home runs this season. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-19 |
Nicaragua v. Costa Rica UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-101 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (0-0-0) the first CONCACAF Gold Cup match ever to be played on their home soil. Los Ticos finished 0-1-2 in their three Group Stage matches in last summer’s World Cup. Costa Rica reached the Semifinals of the 2017 Gold Cup before losing to the USMNT. Nicaragua (0-0-0) plays in their first international tournament sine that 2017 Gold Cup where they lost all three of their matches in Group Stage play.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica is one of the favorites to win this year’s tournament — and they are the dominant team in Group B. Los Ticos are led by an MLS-heavy defensive group that is quality tacticians on the international stage. The 6’5 defender, Kendall Watson, is key to their success with his size providing La Sele an aerial defensive presence as well as a strong tackler. Costa Rica allowed five goals in their three World Cup matches last year — but they were in a challenging group led by the powerful Brazil side along with two upstarts in Switzerland and Serbia. The problem for this team last summer was the lacking of a scoring punch as they scored only two goals (against the Swiss) after suffering two clean sheets in their first two matches. Gustavo Matosas is the new manager this year — but they are just 1-0-3 in the four friendlies under his leadership. They have scored only one goal in those four matches in a win against the defensive-minded Jamaican side. This side lacks creativity on the offensive end of the pitch right now. Getting too cute now would be a disaster for Los Ticos against an overmatched Nicaraguan side — especially when playing at home. Expect a conservative game plan where veterans like Joel Campbell or Bryan Ruiz should eventually get Costa Rica on the scoreboard. Nicaragua is unlikely to threaten with many scoring opportunities. The Pinoleros privilege defensive tactics with the hope that their captain, Juan Barrera, can find scoring opportunities in the counter-attack. Nicaragua has scored only one goal in their six matches ever played in Gold Cup competitions. And in the twelve previous meetings between these two nations, the Pinoleros have scored only eight times. All three of their matches in the 2017 Gold Cup did not see more than three combined goals scored. In their last five matches, Nicaragua has scored only four times with two of those goals occurring in a 2-2 draw with Bolivia back on March 3rd in a friendly.
FINAL TAKE: Costa Rica will not have their veteran superstar goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, this summer with his status with Real Madrid up in the air. Los Ticos did not have Navas in the 2017 Gold Cup either but that did not slow this side down against North American competition. A clean sheet is highly likely for Costa Rica tonight — but they are not likely to score more than two goals (and certainly not three goals which would Push the most common Total of 3). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-15-19 |
Mariners v. A's OVER 9 |
Top |
2-11 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
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At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Seattle (30-43) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-2 score over Oakland (35-35) in Oakland Alameda County Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is also 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Over is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 games — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in Seattle’s last 15 road games against teams with a losing record. And while the A’s are 18-14 at home this year, the Mariners have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the month of June — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AL West foes. They will be using an opening tonight with Bautista taking the hill with his 5.40 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Bautista had a 12.46 ERA with a 3.00 WHIP in 4 1/3 innings of work last season. Let’s put it this way: although Bautista has appeared in only eight games in his major league career since debuting last year, he has allowed at least one run in six of those contests. So when Wade LeBlanc enters this game in the second inning, there is a good chance that the A’s will already have runs on the board. The left-hander has a 3-2 record this year with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in six starts/eight appearances this season. LeBlanc was not quite as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.24 WHIP with a .255 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 1.12 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average at home. LeBlanc has struggled under the lights this year with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in three starts/four appearances at night. Bautista and then LeBlanc will be facing an A’s team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Seattle bullpen will not offer much support either was LeBlanc is pulled. The Mariners’ pen has a 6.32 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP on the road — and they have a 7.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in their last seven games. Oakland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The A’s have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AL West foes. They counter with Montas who is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The 26-year old is enjoying a breakout season — but the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.55 respectively moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Montas pitching with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. Montas last pitched on June 9th — and Oakland has played 7 straight games Over the Total when he is starting with five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Mariners lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .265 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .850 over that span. The Over is also 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 contests Over the Total. Expect another higher scoring game between these two clubs. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-12-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 47 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). THE SITUATION: Boston (64-32-9) forced a climactic seventh game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Sunday with their 5-1 victory over St. Louis (60-38-9). The Bruins return home to TD Garden for the decisive final game of this series and the 2018-19 NHL season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston got outstanding play once again from goalie Tuukka Rask who stopped 28 of the 29 shots he faced while keeping his team competitive in the first period when the Blues enjoyed two Power Play chances. Rask entered this series with a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage in this postseason — and while some regression was expected, he still sports a strong .924 save percentage in the first six games of this series while allowing only 13 goals in those contests. This is Rask’s sixth career Game Seven start in the playoffs along with his second Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Finals — so the moment should not be too big for him. Rask is being helped by outstanding play from the Bruins’ top two defensive pairings who have thwarted 17 of the 18 Power Play chances St. Louis has had in this series. Expect continued outstanding defensive play from this Bruins team that has played 29 of their last 47 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in five days. Boston snapped a two-game losing streak to win Game Six — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three contests. And while the Bruins scored five goals on Sunday (with one being an empty netter), they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing at home after finding the back of the net at least five times in their last game. St. Louis has played 27 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. The Bruins entered the third period with just a one-goal lead before exploding for four goals to force this seventh game. The Blues have played a decisive 32 of their last 52 games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period in their last game. Goalie Jordan Binnington surrendered four goals in Game Six — but he still has a nice .925 save percentage by allowing only seven goals in the last three games of this series even after Sunday. Binnington has been consistently outstanding when attempting to lead his team after a loss this season. In his nine starts after a Blues lost in this postseason, Binnington has responded with a 1.86 GAA along with a .941 save percentage while allowing just sixteen goals in those nine contests. This playoff success continued his strong play after losses in the regular season where Binnington posted a .935 save percentage while surrounding only 10 goals in the six games he started after a loss. Wednesday’s Game Seven will be St. Louis’ fifth game in the last fourteen days — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when playing no more than five games in the last fourteen days. Additionally, the Blues have played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 14 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four goals. With this being a Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Finals, the referees will be a bit more conservative in calling penalties as they will be reticent to have their calls play a critical role — this is especially true after the controversial no-call on a Blues’ trip in the third period of Game Five of this series that played a significant role in St. Louis winning that game. And don’t forget the controversy the league offices felt with San Jose’s three-goal comeback in Game Seven of their series with Vegas stemming from a controversial five-minute major penalty called in that game. Lastly, seventh games tend to see both teams play a bit more cautiously as they hope to not put their opponent on the Power Play. While three of the games in this series have gone Over the Total, two of those final scores came from late empty net goals (which are rarer than they have appeared in this series). Outside the third period on Sunday and the first periods of the first three games of this series, this has been a very low scoring series. Look for this final game to follow those trends. 25* NHL Playoffs Game Seven A-List O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-12-19 |
Norway (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). THE SITUATION: Norway (1-0-0) won their opening match of the 2019 Women’s World Cup with a dominant 3-0 victory over Nigeria on Saturday. France (1-0-0) began this tournament as the host nation last Friday with a 4-0 victory over South Korea.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With both sides securing sizable victories in their opening match, the significance of this match lightens a bit since advancement to the Round of 16 Knockout Stage should be in pretty good shape. Given that, both teams may play a bit more cautiously since a big loss hurts their goal differential which could become an issue if they either team would not secure at least the one point with a draw in their final Group Stage match. France is more a reserved side than the group that lost in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 World Cup in Canada. Roster turnover explains most of that with a previous generation of goal scorers retiring. Les Blues are one of the top favorites to win this event not only because they are the host nation but because their national squad is dominated by the French professional club in Lyon that is — by far — the best women’s professional team in the world. But Lyon’s best attackers play for other national teams. However, the core group of the French defense are Lyon starters in Wendie Renard, Griddle MBock Bathy, and Amel Majri along with their keeper, Sarah Bouhaddi. National teams that have a cluster of starters who play together on their national team gives them an edge in cohesion — so this should be a very tight defensive group this summer. Renard scored twice in their win over South Korea — but don’t expect a defender to score goals on a regular basis for this team. France tends to play lower scoring matches against the better teams in the world. Their last loss was in a friendly to Germany by a 1-0 score back on February 28th. They defeated Australia by a 2-0 score on October 5th while also beating 1-0 win over Canada on April 9th. Les Bleus did lose to Team USA by a 3-1 score on January 9th in a friendly — but that match may have sent a message to manager Corinne Diacre. Even playing on their home soil, the French probably cannot get into a shootout with the Americans. On the heels of the Stars and Stripes 13-0 win over Thailand yesterday, this may be a match where Diacre wants her side to focus on defensive tactics and counter-attacks. In their 2015 World Cup run where they lost on the Quarterfinals to England via Penalty Kicks after a 1-1 score in extra time, France had their clean sheets and three of their five matches result on less than three combined goals (after squashes against Mexico and South Korea). Norway manager Martin Sjogren has already indicated that she will have her side play more cautiously in this contest as they look to neutralize a French attack and look to score on counters. The Grasshoppers are without their best attacker — and probably the best female player in the world — in Ada Hegerberg — who is boycotting her participation with her national team that continues to treat women’s soccer with second class status as compared to their middling men’s side. Norway had three goals against a Nigeria team that is shaky on defense — but that final goal was an Own Goal by the African Cup champs. Norway remains a solid team without Hegerberg who can still make a deep run in the Knockout Stage if they develop confidence and cohesion. They also have cohesion in their backline with Chelsea teammates Maren Mjelde and Maria Thorisdottir — and they are joined by a potential superstar in Graham Hansen who has something to prove after a knee injury kept her out of the 2015 World Cup. Even a 1-0 loss to Les Bleus could be a psychological victory for the Grasshoppers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have not seen more than two combined goals scored in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Expect a low scoring match — especially given the situation they have given the early events of this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-11-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. THE SITUATION: Toronto (23-42) begins this series having lost four straight games after their 8-2 loss on Sunday to Arizona. Baltimore (20-45) has lost four of their last five games with their 4-0 loss in Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling after getting shutout once and plating only four runners in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They generated only one base-hit in their sixteen at-bats with Runners In Scoring Position over those three games — and they are hitting just .161 over their last 112 at-bats with RISP. Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 9 to 9.5. The Blue Jays have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Thornton who is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The rookie is striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and he is averaging a robust 9.8 batters per 9 innings of work. Walks have been his biggest weakness — but the right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in six starts as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Thornton on the hill. Thornton should pitch well against this Orioles lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .217 over that span with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have played five straight games where neither team scored more than four runs — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where neither team scored more than four runs. Baltimore returns home to Charm City where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Orioles have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Means who is 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHP in ten starts (fourteen appearances). The right-hander has maintained a 2.77 ERA in his last ten appearances since April 14th. The left-hander has been remarkably consistent as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his ten starts including his last six starts. Means has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.53 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts (seven appearances) as compared to his 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Orioles have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Means on the mound — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Means pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over that span with a .214 batting average, .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 35-15-1 in their last 51 meetings — and this includes the Under going 14-6-1 in the last 21 contests between these AL East rivals when playing in Camden Yards. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-10-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-105 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 47 m |
Show
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At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). THE SITUATION: Toronto (73-31) took a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Friday with their 105-92 upset victory over the Warriors. The Raptors host Game Five as they look to lift the NBA championship trophy with Golden State (70-32) looking to extend this series to a sixth game back home in the Oracle Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while Toronto has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Toronto’s outstanding defense has been their calling card this postseason. They have held their playoff opponents to just 42.0% shooting from the field — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 42.8% shooting. The Raptors won Game Four despite making just 41.9% of their shots from the field in a shooting effort that I expected to see from them in Game Three where instead they shot a surprising 52.4% from the field. Now with the opportunity to close out this series and win the championship on their home court, I expect this Toronto team to be a bit nervy with their shooting. The Raptors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in playoff games where they have the opportunity to close out the series. Golden State has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing elimination in the playoffs. The Warriors should play tough on the defensive end of the court with their season on the line. This is a team that usually plays better on defense when on the road — they have held their home hosts to just 43.8% shooting this season which is a few notches below the 44.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year overall. Golden State has seen the Under go 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Warriors suffered upset losses in their last two games at home as a favorite in this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two in a row— and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upsets in a row. The team may decide to play Kevin Durant with it being an elimination game. While they certainly need his offensive skills after making only 44.2% of their shots over their last five games, it remains a question how effective he will be if not at 100% and rusty from all the time he has been away from the court. And don’t underestimate Durant’s importance on the defensive end of the court as he offers the Warriors a big body to potentially slow down Kawhi Leonard. If Durant plays, the Golden State offense tends to slow down in pace as well with him looking to generate one-on-one scoring chances. The other big update for this Warriors team was the surprise return of Kevon Looney who had previously been declared out for the remainder of this playoff series by the team. One of the reasons we had the Over in Game Four was that Looney’s absence likely ensured more playing time for Boogie Cousins who is helpful on offense but a liability on defense. Looney’s ability to take the court helps the Golden State defense while limiting their offensive capabilities in lieu of Cousins. Regardless of whether or not Durant plays, this Warriors team has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as a road dog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-05-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
123-109 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
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At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). THE SITUATION: Golden State (70-30) evened this series at 1-1 on Sunday with their 109-104 upset win at Toronto (71-31). The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State vastly improved their efficiency in their half-court offense after scoring just 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the half court in Game One of this series. The Warriors improved that mark to a 1.068 PPP rate in the half court in Game Two which was the most efficient mark that the Raptors have allowed in these playoffs. Regression is likely for this Golden State team — especially with all the injuries they are dealing with tonight. Klay Thompson claims that he will play tonight — but head coach Steve Kerr will not play him if he is experiencing pain with the pulled hamstring he suffered on Sunday. While Thompson’s ability to launch jump shots should not be affected by this injury, his movement will be — so he may have difficulty getting open if and when he does play tonight. Kevin Durant is still not ready to play in this series — and the Warriors lost Kevon Looney to a season-ending cartilage fracture injury on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins played surprisingly well in Game Two but he is still not at 100% as he recovers from his torn quad — and he is still working back into game shape after missing over a month of play. Even Andre Iguodala is not at 100% as he is dealing with a sprained calf of his own. Golden State’s most reliable offensive threat remains Stephen Curry — but when the Raptors deployed the gimmick box-and-one defense in the late moments of the fourth quarter, the Warriors’ offense stalled to a near halt. While the Warriors will adjust to that gimmick defense, the reason why it worked is that Golden State simply lacks reliable scoring threats with all these injuries they have endured. Bettors who had the closing over/under number of 212.5 still cashed their Over tickets that looked like locks midway through the final quarter even with the ugly scoring drought suffered by both teams — and the Warriors have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. Now the Warriors finally return to the Oracle Center for the first time since May 16th after playing their last four games on the road. Golden State has played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last four games on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Toronto should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Warriors to make 46.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Toronto has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Raptors also experienced problems on the offensive end of the court with them shooting just 37.2% of their shots from the field. Kawhi Leonard has seen his offensive productivity steadily decline as the postseason moves on. Leonard has been nursing a leg injury of his own and he seems to be tiring. He only had seven isolation plays on offense with a mere four post-up plays with his energy appearing to be limited. Now Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in five of shier last six games — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Raptors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Expect a lower scoring game tonight. 25* NBA Wednesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-03-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-134 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
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At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (7) and the St. Louis Blues (8). THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30-9) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Saturday with their 7-2 victory on the road against the Blues. St. Louis looks to even this series at 2-2 on their home ice before traveling to Boston for Game Five on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues should play a more disciplined defensive game after falling behind by a 4-0 score early in the second period when Boston scored on a Power Play that was carried over from the first period. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Blues have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. Goalie Jordan Binnington allowed five goals in that game before being pulled — but he has been very reliable when attempting to bounce-back from a loss. In his six starts after a loss in the regular season, Binnington stopped 141 of the 151 shots he faced for a .935 save percentage. In his eight starts in the playoffs this postseason after a loss, Binnington has stopped 194 of the 207 shots he has faced for a .935 save percentage along with 1.84 Goals-Against-Average. The Blues stay at home where they have played 40 of their last 64 home games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. St. Louis has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when a money-line favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. And in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Blues have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least six goals in their last contest. The Bruins have held their last five opponents to just 1.6 Goals-Per-Game after their goaltender, Tuukka Rask, stopped 27 of the 29 shots he faced. Rask has a nice .919 save percentage in this series. Moving forward, Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Bruins stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series. After Game Three was a high-scoring affair, expect the fourth game of this series to be lower-scoring. The last two games have seen plenty of scoring in the first period. Expect the play in the first period of this game to be very cautious. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (7) and the St. Louis Blues (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 212.5 |
Top |
109-104 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). THE SITUATION: Toronto (71-30) won the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 118-109 victory as a 2-point favorite. The Raptors have now won and covered the point spread in five straight games. Golden State (69-30) had their six-game winning streak snapped in that game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors shot just 43.6% from the field on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-seven games. Golden State has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games on the road — and the Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, Golden State has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Moving forward, the Warriors have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second game of a playoff series. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 second games of a playoff series Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 21 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 25 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the game finished Over the Total 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 contests Over the Total — and they have also played five straight games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (58-36-9) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 3-2 victory in overtime over Boston (62-30-9). The Blues return home to the Enterprise Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The first period of Game Two saw both teams score goals before that game became a defensive slugfest for the next two periods. The Blues limited the Bruins to just 23 shots in that game which included an extra 3:21 minutes of overtime. St. Louis has only allowed 1.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Under is 14-6-2 in their last 22 games when playing an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Under is also a decisive 44-21-4 in their last 69 games when playing with two days of rest — and this includes them playing twenty of their last twenty-nine games at home Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blues have won four of their last five games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a home favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. The Blues have also played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when a playoff series is tied. Boston has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous game in overtime. Furthermore, the Bruins have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Boston has also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. The Bruins have also held their last five opponents to only 1.6 Goals-Per-Game. They now go back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. And in their last 14 games when playing with two days of rest, the Under is 9-4-1.
FINAL TAKE: With the series tied at 1-1, expect another low scoring game between these two teams. With the Total set at just 5, the oddsmakers are daring bettors to take the Over. Don’t take the bait. 25* NHL NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-19 |
Angels v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-29) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-3 score. Seattle (24-35) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Angels have played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. He will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked with a 5.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over their last seven games. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing the Mariners — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing this team in Seattle. Skaggs faces a Mariners team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 29-14-1 in the Mariners’ last 44 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 16 games at home — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Leake who is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.44 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .300 in four starts at T-Mobile Park as opposed to his 1.36 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Leake had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with Leake facing the Angels. Leake will be supported by a tired bullpen that has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over their last two games. The Mariners have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings over their last two games. This bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP when pitching at home. The Angels are scoring a robust 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820 over that span. Additionally, LA has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-19 |
Indians v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-29) ha won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 10-4 score. Cleveland (28-27) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. Cleveland has now played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts. The Under is a decisive 45-11-7 in the Indians’ last 63 road games with Bauer on the hill. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games in Chicago facing the White Sox. Bauer will be supported by an elite Indians’ bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA on the road with a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season while posting a .249 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .694 in those games. Chicago has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-7-1 in the White Sox’s last 23 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least six runs over an AL Central rival. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 Games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total after scoring at least 8 runs in their last contest. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Covey who is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in five starts and seven appearances this season. The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home where he sees is ERA and WHIP plummet to 2.61 and 1.16 marks — and his opponents are hitting just .189 when he pitching at home in Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has played 5 straight games Under the Total with Covey pitching on four days of rest between starts — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Covey making the start against the Indians. Covey’s bullpen enters this game with a 2.37 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in night games this season. Cleveland is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668. The Indians have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With Bauer struggling this month and bettors not giving much respect to Covey, the Total has been set in the 10 range for this contest. Bauer has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts — but all those efforts were at home where he has a history of not always being as effective. Bauer has still amassed 88 strikeouts in 76 innings of work — and he is facing a White Sox team that strikes out 30% of the time against elite starting pitchers like Bauer with similar profiles. Covey is not a strikeout pitcher and gets into trouble when issuing too many bases-on-balls — but the ground ball pitcher has better control when pitching at home. 10s or higher is too high for this matchup especially with two of the weaker lineups in the league. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5 |
Top |
109-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
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At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Golden State (69-29) has won six straight games after they completed their four-game sweep over Portland by defeating them on the road by a 119-117 score as a 2.5-point favorite back on May 20th. Toronto (70-30) has won four straight games after rallying from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee by a 4-2 margin with their 100-94 victory as a 1.5-point road favorite last Saturday. The Raptors host the opening two games of this series. Kevin Durant has been ruled out for this game — but the news I have been waiting for was the confirmation by the Warriors that DeMarcus Cousins will be considered active for tonight’s opening game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the big break before the start of the NBA Finals, looking at team trends is helpful to assess how these two teams will respond to the extended time off. Golden State has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total when playing with at least three of rest. Toronto has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contest. Additionally, the Raptors have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after a straight-up victory. Toronto has covered the point spread in their last four games — and not only have they played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests but they have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They held the Bucks to just 40% shooting on Saturday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games as their defensive wall against Giannis Antetokounmpo further frustrated that Milwaukee offense. But they will have to hope the chalkboard clean regarding their defensive schemes against this potent Warriors attack. The Raptors face a dilemma on defense as they want to have Danny Green get significant minutes to take advantage of his size in defending Stephen Curry who will torch smaller defenders like Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet — but Green is slow in switching off pick-and-rolls and he cannot be a liability with his outside shooting. Green has a great pedigree of nailing 3s in the NBA Finals given his time with San Antonio — but his cold shooting continues, he will have to be benched for VanVleet who has been on fire with his 3-point shooting but is a defensive liability. Furthermore, Toronto has played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range which includes them playing five of their last seven games at home Over the Total in that point spread range. Golden State plays at a quicker pace without Durant on the court as they can replace quick ball movement with his one-on-one isolation skills that does drain time off the shot-clock. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 road games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 115 points. Golden State shot just 46.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. The Warriors have not been as sharp on defense as teams of the past in this postseason as they are allowing the 9th most Points-Per-Possession in these playoffs. They certainly miss Durant’s defensive capabilities — and he would have been the primary ball defender on Kawhi Leonard. Moving forward, Golden State stays on the road for the third straight game where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 5 contests. The Warriors have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Additionally, Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games in the NBA Finals Over the Total. And with Cousins likely to play tonight, that puts the icing on the cake for this Over play (and the 25* rating) since the big man fills a hole on offense with his post-up and shooting skills while representing a liability on the defensive end of the court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the Raptors pulling the upset in the last meeting back on December 12th where they won by a 113-93 score on the road as an 8-point underdog. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total including four straight Overs when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). THE SITUATION: Boston (69-29-9) won the opening game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Monday with their 4-2 victory over St. Louis (57-36-9). The Bruins host the second game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues took a 2-0 lead in this game as they were able to successfully take advantage of the rust that Boston endured after not playing for eleven days after sweeping Carolina in four games. St. Louis either started playing safe or they were concerned about the speed of the Bruins’ forwards — but, either way, their defensemen offered too much space which gave too much room for the Boston offensive players to maneuver at will. St. Louis thrives when playing physical — look for head coach Craig Berube to get his team back to engaging in this style of play tonight which should include playing tighter against the Bruins’ forwards. The Blues allowed two goals in the third period on Monday — and they have played 31 of their last 50 games Under the Total on the road after surrendering at least two goals in the third period of their last game. St. Louis has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least two goals. Rookie goalie Jordan Binnington did not play bad — he was peppered with 37 shots in Game One while he stopped 34 of them (with the last Boston goat being an empty-netter). Binnington has been outstanding when he is between the pipes after a Blues loss. In the regular season, Binnington stopped 141 of the 151 shots he faces in six games following a St. Louis loss for a sparkling .395 save percentage. And after the Blues’ seven losses in this postseason, Binnington has stopped 194 of the 207 shots he has faced for a .937 save percentage. As it is, St. Louis has allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games — and they can take stock in the fact they stopped four of the five Power Play chances by the Bruins. The Blues may also see the return of one of their top-four defensemen in Vince Dunn who has missed the last four games with a facial injury after getting struck by a puck. Dunn has taken part in the team’s last three practices with the last two without the need of a protective visor. But St. Louis may have bigger problems on the offensive end of the ice after they generated only 12 shots in the final two periods of Game One. The Blues have seen the Under go 26-11-2 in their last 39 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 20-8-3 in their last 31 games against teams that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. This team scores only 2.8 Goals-Per-Game when playing away from home. Additionally, the Under is 34-13-3 in St. Louis’ last 50 road games as a big underdog priced in the +151 to +200 range. The Blues have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series. Boston has played 15 of their last 22 games after a win at home where they scored at least four goals. The Bruins have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. Goalie Tuukka Rask showed the outstanding form in the second half of that game that he has displayed this postseason as he entered this series with a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage. Boston has allowed only 1.9 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have given up just 1.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two goals — and they have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by at least two goals. 25* NHL NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-19 |
Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (26-29) has won three of their last four games after winning the third game of this series last night by an 11-6 score. Pittsburgh (26-27) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. The Reds host this Getaway Game this afternoon to close out this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And the Over is now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They give the ball to Brault who will serve as the opener this afternoon with his 1-1 record along with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. The left-hander has been even less effective on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with 2.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .353 in 12 innings — and he has an 11.88 ERA with a 2.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .378 during the day this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 road games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Reds lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .340 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .988 over that span. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Cincy’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates’ bullpen will be called on to log in plenty of innings after Brault this afternoon — but that group has an ERA of 5.85 over their last seven games with a WHIP of 1.67. Cincinnati has played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Reds have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-2- with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP on the road. Tony Disco had a 5.02 ERA at home in the Great American Ballpark last year as competed to his more modest 4.78 ERA when on the road. The Over is 4-0-2 in Cincinnati’s last 6 home games with DeSclafani on the hill — and the Reds have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with him facing the Pirates. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.58 ERA over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is also swinging hot bats as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams in this afternoon Getaway Game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-28-19 |
Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-18) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-5 score over New York (26-27).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets bullpen surrendered seven runs in their last loss yesterday on Memorial Day. New York has then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Mets have played 18 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bearish on the left-handed knuckleballer with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 4.00 moving forward. Matz has been very good at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 — but those numbers rise to a 6.10 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Matz had a 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home but a 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 road games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. The Over is also 9-2-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games when Matz is pitching on four days rest. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .306 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898 over that span. Los Angeles is also scoring a healthy 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .277 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .837. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers banged out 17 hits yesterday — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after producing at least 17 hits in their last game. They counter with Hill who is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP project a rise in his ERA to 3.28 and 3.29 respectively based on his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in two starts. Last year, Hill had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 at home with all those numbers improving to a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .193 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with Hill pitching on the road. And while Hill comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay, the Over is 16-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average, .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .822 in those games. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 7 of their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles Over the Total. Expect another high-scoring game. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-27-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (1) and the Boston Bruins (2). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (57-35-9) reached the Stanley Cup Finals by defeating San Jose in six games with their 5-1 victory at home last Tuesday. Boston (61-29-9) has won seven games in a row after they completed their four-game sweep of Carolina that they concluded on the road back on May 16th by a 4-0 score. The Bruins host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston is getting outstanding goaltending from a former Vezina Trophy winner in Tuukka Rask who has a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage in these playoffs. Over his last seven games, Rask has a 1.29 GAA along with a .961 save percentage. Boston has allowed only five combined goals over their last five games while never allowing more than two goals over that span. Rask has two shutouts in these last five games. The Bruins have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in four straight games. Boston looks to get their veteran leader Zdeno Chara back tonight after he missed the last game of the series with the Hurricanes with an injury. He will help a Bruins’ Power Play Kill Unit that has been 86.3% effective in the postseason. Moving forward, Boston has played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning at least six straight games in a row. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Bruins’ last 5 games in the Stanley Cup Finals. Boston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams that scored at least five goals in their last game. St. Louis has seen the Under go 20-7-3 in their last 30 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. The Blues have won three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. They preceded their Game Six victory over the Sharks with a 5-0 shutout win against them in Game Five of that series. St. Louis has played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after winning two straight games by at least two goals — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two straight games by at least three goals. The Blues have only allowed two combined goals over their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing one goal or less in three straight games. They are also getting outstanding goaltending with Jordan Binnington owning a 2.31 GAA along with a .914 save percentage in these playoffs. Binnington also owns a 0.67 GAA with a .974 save percentage over his last three starts. He has been helped by a blue-line that has not allowed a goal in 11 of their last 13 Power Play Kills (84.6%). St. Louis has played 24 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while the Blues’ have played only five games over the last fourteen days, they have then played12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing just their fifth game in fourteen days.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 15 of their last 23 opening games to a new series Under the Total. The Bruins have seen the Under go 15-6-5 in their last 26 playoff games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Expect a lower-scoring game tonight with both teams dealing with the rust of six and eleven days off since last taking the ice against hostile competition. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (1) and the Boston Bruins (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-19 |
Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) has won seven straight games in a row after sweeping yesterday’s double-header — winning Game One by a 7-3 score before winning the nightcap by a 6-5 score. Kansas City (17-34) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Yankees have now seen the Over go 33-11-3 in their last 47 games on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 10 straight games Over the Total on the road as a favorite priced at -125 or higher. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.91 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road either as he has a 1.69 ERA with a .177 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.45 ERA with a .193 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where German had a 5.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers rising to a 5.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games on the road with German on the hill. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched 14 innings over their last three games, New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Royals’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has seen the Over go 21-10-3 in their last 34 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-3 in the Royals’ last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Duffy who is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home as well where he owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in three starts as compared to his 2.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average of .239 on the road. Duffy struggled at home last year as well where he was saddled with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 3.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Duffy on the hill. And while he comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Angels, KC has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when Duffy is pitching after an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces the Bronx Bombers’ offensive juggernaut that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with .301 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .951 over that span. The Yankees are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-0-1 in New York’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-21-19 |
Sharks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (25) and the St. Louis Blues (26). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (56-35-9) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Sunday with their 5-0 victory over San Jose (56-36-7). The Blues return home tonight as they attempt to close out this series to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Sharks are big money-line underdogs given the injury status of Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, and Joe Pavelski. Reports this afternoon indicate Karlsson and Hertl did not make the trip to St. Louis with Pavelski still being a game-time decision (and, hence, I am comfortable making my call on this game with that updated information).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Jose has scored only one goal in the last two games since their controversial hand pass helped Karlsson score the winning goal in overtime in the third game of this series. The Sharks were still in a close game on Sunday midway through the second period before Hertl took a big hit that was not called for a penalty. Instead, Hertl was unable to return for the third period and joined both Pavelski and Karlsson in suffering game-ending injuries. Don’t read much into the final score where the Sharks allowed five goals as San Jose committed 32 minutes of penalties in the final 20 minutes of that game that was likely lost. The Sharks will be without at least two important pieces on offense with Karlsson and Hertl out. San Jose can only grind out a low-scoring game tonight. But don’t count them out — goaltender Martin Jones owns a sensational .943 save percentage in the four elimination games he has played this season which includes two overtime periods as he has stopped the 149 of the 158 shots he has faced which is a pretty large sample size. The Sharks have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. San Jose has also played 14 of their last 20 sixth games of a playoff series Under the Total. Additionally, the Sharks have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three goals. They have also played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than one goal in two straight games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in San Jose’s last five games on the road. St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a shutout victory — and they have played 6 of their last 8 Under the Total after allowing no more than one goal in two straight games. Additionally, not only have the Blues played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a shutout win on the road but they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least two goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three goals. Much of St. Louis’ success has come from not giving the Sharks’ too many chances with a man-advantage. The Blues have committed only 12 minor penalties in this series — and that has helped them allow only two Power Play goals in this series. The Under is 18-6-2 in St. Louis’ last 26 home games when a favorite priced in the -151 to -200 range — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 playoff games priced in the -151 to -200 range.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least four goals. The Sharks can win this game — but they need to focus most of their energies on stopping the Blues’ from scoring and make this a tight game in the third period where their experience gives them an edge. 25* NHL Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (25) and the St. Louis Blues (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-19 |
Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday. we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (18-26) has won three of the last four games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. Chicago (26-16) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Over go 15-7-1 in their last 23 third games of a series. The Over is a decisive 30-14-3 in their last 47 games at home — and the Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 36 of their last 57 home games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Hellickson who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 8.04 and 1.79 marks — and his opponents are hitting .299 when he is pitching in Washington. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Hellickson had a 4.50 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average when he was pitching on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games with Hellickson on the hill — and Washington has played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Hellickson pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .274 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Cubs have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road with the number set in that 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Hendricks who is 3-4 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not nearly as encouraging as those frontline numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 3.86 respectively moving forward. And while the right-hander has been outstanding at home in Wrigley Field where he has a 0.62 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.91 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .330 on the road in four starts.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-19 |
Bucks v. Raptors OVER 219.5 |
Top |
112-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Toronto Raptors (550). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (70-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 125-103 victory as a 6-point favorite over Toronto (66-30). The Raptors host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. This Bucks team has won and covered the point spread in six straight games. Milwaukee has then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight contests. The Bucks have dominated the boards in this series as they have out-rebounded Toronto by 15 and 14 boards in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has then played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last two foes by at least 10 rebounds. The Bucks have also held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting from the field — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after their last five opponents shot no better than 42% over that span. Now after playing their last three games on their home court, Milwaukee goes back on the road where they are scoring 116.8 PPG on 47% shooting from the field. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing their last three games at home. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight contests, the Raptors have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after they have failed to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Toronto shot just 42.5% from the field on Friday — but they return home where they are scoring 113.8 PPG while making 47.4% of their shot attempts. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing three of these last four situations Over the Total when playing on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has lost their last three encounters with the Bucks — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. The Raptors have also played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Toronto Raptors (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 |
Top |
103-125 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (69-23) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 108-100 victory over Toronto (66-29). The Bucks host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks won this game despite shooting just 39.8% from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. The seven-day break they experienced after defeating the Celtics in five games resulted in some cold shooters for this Milwaukee team. The Bucks made only 11 of their 44 shots from behind the arc for a 25% shooting clip which was well below their 35.8% percentage when playing at home. Milwaukee scores a robust 119.0 PPG when playing at home given their up-tempo pace and their 47.8% field goal percentage. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Milwaukee should be primed for a better shooting effort tonight as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Bucks have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row (as they have after dropping Game One of their series with Boston. Milwaukee has also played 4 straight second games of a playoff series Over the Total. And while the Bucks have not allowed their last three opponents shoot better than 37.8% from the floor, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 42% of their shots in three straight games. Toronto entered the fourth quarter of Game One with 83 points but only Kyrie Lowery managed to score a field goal in those final 12 minutes of play with Kawhi Leonard showing signs of fatigue by missing all three of his field goal attempts during that span. The Raptors shot just 37% from the field which was the lowest shooting effort in their last six games. Toronto has played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 range — and this includes them playing five of these last eight situations Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total when an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 6 playoff games in the second game of the series, Toronto played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors have played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. And while Toronto has lost the last two games between these two teams, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when looking to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-19 |
Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the Carolina Hurricanes (16). THE SITUATION: Boston (60-29-9) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory on the road at Carolina (54-35-7). The Hurricanes look to stave off elimination tonight as they host Game Four tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Carolina has scored only five goals in the first three games of this series. Much of this can be blamed on their struggling Power Play as the Hurricanes have failed to score in eleven straight opportunities with the man-advantage in this series. Overall, Carolina has scored only 5 Power Play goals in their 50 opportunities for a 10% success rate in this postseason. But the Hurricanes are also facing a red hot goaltender in Tuukka Rask. The Bruins have won six straight games with Rask sporting a 1.50 Goals-Against-Average over that span while stopping 196 of the 205 shots he has faced in those six games for a sensational .956 save percentage. Carolina came out on fire on Tuesday as they peppered Rask with 20 shots. But after Rask stopped every one of those shot attempts, this Hurricanes team look frustrated as they fell behind then by a 2-0 score before narrowing that game to a one-goal deficit before finally losing that game. Carolina probably took from that game that they cannot expect to win high scoring games with this Bruins team — so they will likely be looking to eke out a low-scoring game. The Hurricanes have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal on their home ice. Carolina has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after losing at least three in a row. And while this is the Hurricanes’ fifth game in the last fourteen days, they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. Carolina will likely stick with Curtis McElhinney between the pipes after he stopped 29 of the 31 shots he faced on Tuesday. The Hurricanes are allowing only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game when playing at home. Boston is allowing only 2.1 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have given up just 1.6 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games. The Bruins have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one goal. Boston has also played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two goals in their last game. And while the Bruins have won six straight games in a row, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total when playing at least two straight games away from home. The Bruins have also played 15 of their last 23 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. And in their last 26 games in the playoffs when favored priced in the -110 to -150 price range, the Under is 15-6-5.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least one goal. The Hurricanes have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the Carolina Hurricanes (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-19 |
Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
94-116 |
Win
|
101 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (533) and the Golden State Warriors (534). THE SITUATION: Portland (61-33) advanced to the Western Conference Finals on Sunday with their 100-96 upset victory in Denver as a 5.5-point underdog. Golden State (65-29) reached the Western Conference Finals two days earlier on Friday when they upset Houston on the road by a 118-113 sore as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors stepped up without Kevin Durant on Friday as they made 49.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this team will miss Durant’s scoring ability as he will likely miss the first few games of this series. Stephen Curry was outstanding in the second half by scoring 33 points — but he did not score in a first half where Golden State got surprising scoring contributions from their reserves. Curry and Klay Thompson have been inconsistent in these playoffs. This team is making only 46.4% of their shots over their last five games which is far below their 49.0% field goal percentage for the season. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Golden State has also played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Warriors return home where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Additionally, Golden State has played 5 straight games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors are making 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc — and Portland has played 41 of their last 68 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 36% from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers have stepped up their play on the defensive end of the court. They held the Nuggets to just 37.1% shooting on Sunday after limiting them to a 38.4% field goal percentage in Game Six of that series. Portland has held their last five opponents to a 42.9% field goal percentage which is a few clicks better than their 45.3% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. But the Blazers are making only 42.4% of their shots over their last five games which is a bit below their 46.4% field goal percentage for the year. Portland will also likely be without their super sub, Rodney Hood, who has been downgraded to being doubtful given the knee injury he suffered in Sunday’s game. The Trail Blazers have also played 12 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is Golden State’s fourth game in the last ten days — and in games involving teams who have won five or six of their last seven games and is now playing just their fourth game (or less) in the last ten days, these games finished Under the Total in 435 of the last 764 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (533) and the Golden State Warriors (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-19 |
Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (7) and the San Jose Sharks (8). THE SITUATION: San Jose (55-33-7) won the opening game of this series on Saturday with their 6-3 victory over St. Louis (53-34-9). The Sharks host the second game of this series Monday night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Jose has been an offensive juggernaut on their home ice. They are scoring 3.7 Goals-Per-Game at home and they are back at full strength with their leading scorer, Joe Pavelski, back on the ice after he missed the first six games of last round’s series with Colorado. Most of those games’ Totals were set at 6 despite Pavelski still recovering from the head injury he suffered in the third period of their Game Seven with Vegas in the opening round of the playoffs — so grabbing a 5.5 is a nice opportunity for this situation. The Sharks have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. This is San Jose’s third straight game at home after they disposed of the Avalanche in seven games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Sharks have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total. Additionally, San Jose has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. And in their last 4 games in the Western Conference Finals, the Sharks have played all 4 of these games Over the Total. St. Louis has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. The Blues stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. And in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog, the Over is 3-0-1.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose is going to score their share of goals on home ice at the SAP Center. With the Blues needing to win this game to avoid an undesirable 0-2 deficit when they return to St. Louis to play Games Three and Four, look for them to be very aggressive in trying to score goals. 25* NHL Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (7) and the San Jose Sharks (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-19 |
Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (24-18) has lost two straight games after their 4-1 loss in Chicago last night against the Cubs. Philadelphia (23-16) has won two straight games with their 6-1 victory in Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 11 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Nola who is 3-0 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season given his 3.77 ERA in five starts. Nola had a 2.34 ERA at home last year. After a slow start, Nola has looked like the pitcher who concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three starts. Over his last four starts, Nola has a 2.25 ERA while striking out 26 batters in 24 innings of work over that span. The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Nola pitching as a favorite priced at least at -150. The Under is also 18-5-2 in Philadelphia’s last 25 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. He faces a Brewers team that is hitting just .218 on the road with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 — and their slugger, Ryan Braun, is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss. The Brewers gave up more than three runs for the first time in nine games last night — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. And while Milwaukee’s bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings over their last three games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after their pen combined to throw at least 13 innings in their last three games. The Brewers stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 27 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The counter with Peralta who is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in six games. After Peralta was used after an opener in his last outing against Washington where he allowed only three hits and no runs in 5 innings of work, manager Craig Counsell will have him start in the first inning tonight. He has been better on the road where he has a 0.97 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Peralta pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. The Under is 15-5-1 in the Phillies’ last 21 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 17games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting only .225 over their last seven games with a .312 On-Batting Average and an OPS of .638 over that span. Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Monday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-19 |
Hurricanes v. Bruins OVER 5.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
115 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (5) and the Boston Bruins (6). THE SITUATION: Boston (58-29-9) won the first game of this series on Thursday with their 5-2 victory over Carolina (54-33-7). The Bruins host the second game of this series this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston entered the third period of that game trailing by a 2-1 score before scoring three times to win that game easily. The Bruins have scored at least three goals in four straight games — and they have totaled 16 goals scored in those four contests. They should keep it up this afternoon as they are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game on their home ice. This team is getting it down with their Power Play after scoring twice with a man-advantage in Game One of this series. Boston has scored 12 Power Play goals in these playoffs in their 40 opportunities with the man-advantage for a 30% success rate that is tops of all teams in the playoffs. The Bruins have won four straight games after winning their six-game series at Columbus by a 3-0 score. Boston has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning two straight games by at least two goals — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least three goals. The Bruins have also played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 5 playoff games when favored in the -151 to -200 price range, the Over is 4-0-1. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss by at least three goals. The Hurricanes have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Carolina should get their offense cranking in this important game for them to steal since they do not want to return to Charlotte with a 2-0 deficit. They are scoring 3.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. However, they are also allowing 2.9 Goals-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Hurricanes have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. Additionally, Carolina has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least three goals. Furthermore, the Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams — and this includes four straight Overs when playing in Boston. 25* NHL Third Round NBC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (5) and the Boston Bruins (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
118-113 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Houston Rockets (520). THE SITUATION: Golden State (59-33) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 104-99 victory at home over Houston (59-33) as a 6-point underdog. This series moves back to the Rockets’ Toyota Center tonight for Game Six with Houston looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The calf injury that Kevin Durant suffered in the second half of this game that will keep him out the rest of this series is the most important intangible in handicapping this game. The Warriors will be looking to re-invent their Splash Brothers offense of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson circa the 2015-16 season before they signed Kevin Durant as a free agent. I do expect Golden State to attempt to play at a faster pace as their offense has tended to slow down to adapt to Durant’s isolation game in the half-court. But that all said, I do not expect the efficiency of the Warriors offense to significantly improve — especially without the luxury of having Durant that head coach Steve Kerr describes as the ultimate weapon. For starters, neither Curry nor Thompson are not in great form. Thomson’s series high is 27 points while he has only connected on thirteen shots from behind the arc in all five games. Curry has reached 30 points just once in this series while not nailing more than five 3-pointers in a game in this series while he seems to be slowed by a hyperextended left finger along with a right ankle issue. Furthermore, those pre-Durant Golden State teams had a better set of complementary offensive pieces (such as Harrison Barnes and a more productive Draymond Green on offense) than this current group that began the season banking on big contributions from DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets have been doing a great job of defending Curry and Thompson in this series. Chris Paul remains a strong on-the-ball defender but what this Houston team has after him is a slew of guards with size whose length can mess with the Splash Brothers: James Harden is 6’5, Eric Gordon is 6’4, Austin Rivers is 6’4, Iman Shumpert is 6’5, Gerard Green is 6’7, and P.J. Tucker is 6’6. What head coach Mike D’Antoni chooses to do with Tucker will be particularly interesting since he has been relieved of being the primary defender on Durant for the Rockets. Frankly, Houston also has three more years of experience under their belts defending the Splash Brothers’ offense that a number of teams have copy-catted as they embraced up-tempo offensive systems that emphasize launching tons of 3s. And this Rockets team has steadily improved in their defensive play due to some important reconfigurations of their roster along with the continued work of their defensive guru in assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik. Houston boasted the second best Defensive Rating in the NBA over the last fifteen games of the regular season — and they have held their opponents in the playoffs to just 43.3% shooting from the field which has resulted in a -5.2 drop in points they are allowing per game from the 113.3 PPG they gave up in the regular season. Golden State typically plays harder on defense when they are away from home as well — they hold their home hosts to just 43.7% shooting as compared to the 44.4% overall mark this year. The Under is 10-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Golden State has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Warriors’ last 27 games when playing with one day of rest. The Under is 18-5-2 in Houston’s last 26 games when playing with just one day of rest. Houston has also seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Rockets have only reached their 117.7 PPG scoring average once in this series with it being evident that Chris Paul is not the same offensive player that he once was. Paul is making only 45% of his midrange jump shots in these playoffs — and the 58% shooting inside feet of the basket is a few notches below the 61% mark he enjoyed in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Houston returns home where the Under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when looking to stave off elimination in a playoff series. They will dedicate their defensive energies in stopping Curry and Thompson to dare the Warriors to rely on their secondary scorers. The Under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams when playing in Houston. 25* NBA Second Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Houston Rockets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-19 |
Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
109 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (27) and the San Jose Sharks (28). THE SITUATION: Colorado (45-34-14) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 4-3 victory in overtime at home against San Jose (53-33-7). The Sharks host Game Seven in their SAP Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by just one goal. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least four goals — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least three goals. The Under is also 11-3-2 overall in the Avalanche’s last 16 games after a victory — and the Under is 13-4-2 in Colorado’s last 19 games when playing with one day of rest. The Avalanche’s offense has slowed down in this series as they have scored just 2.8 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contest as compared to their 3.2 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. Now Colorado goes back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Avalanche have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. Colorado has also played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. San Jose has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. The Sharks offense has also slowed down as this series has moved forward as they are scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games as opposed to their 3.5 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. San Jose has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total bouncing back from an overtime loss.
FINAL TAKE: Two of the last three games in this series have seen just three combined goals scored. Look for this to be another lower scoring game. 25* NHL Second Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (27) and the San Jose Sharks (28). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-19 |
Stars v. Blues UNDER 5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (23) and the St. Louis Blues (24). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (52-33-9) forced a climactic seventh game of this series on Sunday with their 4-1 win on the road at Dallas (50-37-7). This series returns to St. Louis tonight with the Blues hosting Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars should tighten things up on defense after surrendering four goals on Sunday. They are still giving up only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs. Dallas has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three goals. Furthermore, the Stars have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least two goals. Dallas has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after conceding at least four goals in their last game. The Stars goalie, Ben Bishop, left Game Six after taking a slap shot in his collarbone. He will be good to go to play tonight and should bounce-back after surrendering four goals on Sunday. Bishop entered Game Six with a 2.13 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage in the playoffs. Bishop has been the best goaltender in the NHL this season as he carried Dallas in the second half of the season with a 1.15 GAA along with a .962 save percentage. Bishop also has Game Seven experience as he has pitched two shutouts in his previous two Game Seven opportunities in his career. He has helped the Stars be sensational when playing undermanned in these playoffs. Dallas has successfully thwarted 33 of the 35 Power Play they have faced in this postseason for a .942 Power Play Kill rate. He will need to be outstanding tonight since the Stars score only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game when on the road. The Under is 17-6-5 in Dallas’ last 28 games on the road. The Under is also 11-3-3 in the Stars’ last 17 games as an underdog priced in the +110 +150 price range. St. Louis has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least two goals. The Blues have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game — and the Under is 18-7-3 in their last 28 games when facing an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last contest. Their rookie goaltender, Jordan Bennington, stepped up on Sunday by stopping 22 of the 23 shots he faced. Bennington was spectacular in the second half of the season with a 1.90 GAA with a .928 save percentage in twenty-three regular season starts after the All-Star Break. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as a home favorite. The Blues have also played 13 of their last 20 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least two goals — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams when playing in St. Louis. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (23) and the St. Louis Blues (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-19 |
Barcelona FC v. Liverpool OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). THE S|TUATION: Barcelona won the first leg of the two-leg Champions League Semifinals with a 3-0 win over Liverpool last Wednesday. The second-leg match moves to Liverpool’s home field at Anfield Stadium. The Reds must at least three goals to stay alive to advance to the Finals. A 3-0 Liverpool victory in regulation time forces two fifteen minute extra periods — and if things are still tied after that, then the match (and Champions League Finalist) will be decided by a shootout. With the first tie-breaker being goals scored on the road, Barcelona advances to the Finals even with a 4-1 loss since their one goal scored on the road is more than Liverpool’s zero goals scored last week. Liverpool advances to the Finals with a victory by at least four goals in regulation time.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Liverpool needs to score at least three goals to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. The problem for manager Jurgen Klopp is that he will be without two of his top strikers. Roberto Firmino has been dealing with a groin injury — and while he was a substitute in last Wednesday’s first-leg, he did not play in the Reds English Premier League match over the weekend. He does not fit to play this afternoon. Mohamed Salah also will be out this afternoon after receiving a knock in their Saturday match against Newcastle United which has him in the concussion protocol. Liverpool will push forward — they still have a prolific goal scorer in Sadio Mane while also possessing a group of talented defensemen who are comfortable playing up on the pitch to score goals. Look for Klopp to deploy the high-press system he relied on last season. This approach creates scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but it also leaves his defense vulnerable when these tactics fail. Klopp dialed back this approach this season to make the Reds more defensive in their tactics — but this situation calls for uber-aggressiveness. Barcelona is a pragmatic side this season — but they will not be resting on their laurels in this contest. Manager Ernesto Valverde has indicated he wants his team playing aggressively as well — if and when they score, it forces Liverpool to have to score five goals to win this match given the tie-breaker situation. Furthermore, with the Catalans featuring Lionel Messi on the pitch, he is capable of scoring from anywhere at any time.
FINAL TAKE: It is very difficult to expect the Reds to generate a clean sheet against Messi and this Barcelona side. I do think an aggressive Liverpool scores at least twice in this rematch (even without Salah and Firmino). 25* Champions League Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-06-19 |
Bucks v. Celtics OVER 219 |
Top |
113-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (66-23) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 123-116 upset win at Boston (54-35) as a 2-point underdog. The Celtics host the fourth game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road after a win by at least 20 points. Milwaukee has also played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bucks have played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against a team with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Boston has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. And while Boston has lost the last two games in this series, they have then played 8 straight home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three contests. Additionally, the Celtics have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. And in their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, Boston has played 7 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 18-7-1 in their last 26 games when playing in Boston. The Celtics have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* NBA Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-05-19 |
Blues v. Stars OVER 5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (5) and the Dallas Stars (6). THE SITUATION: Dallas (50-36-7) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Friday with their 2-1 victory at St. Louis (51-33-9). The Stars return home to attempt to close out this series on their home ice.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues will be playing with desperation this afternoon with their season hanging in the balance. St. Louis averages 3.0 Goals-Per-Game this season but they have managed only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. The Blues need to get their Power Play going as they have only scored twice in their sixteen opportunities with the man advantage against the Stars in this series. They should be scoring more than that 12.3% clip considering that they scored five goals in their nineteen chances on the Power Play in their opening round series against Winnipeg for a 26.3% clip. St. Louis has seen a regression in their rookie goaltender, Jordan Binnington, in these playoffs. After posting a 1.90 Goals-Against-Average with a .928 save percentage in his last twenty-three regular season starts after the All-Star Break, Binnington has 2.73 GAA along with a .908 save percentage in these playoffs. The Blues have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing their last two games against a Central Division rival. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. St. Louis has also played 4 straight games Over the Total with the number set at 5 or less. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing their last three games against divisional foes — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against Central Division opponents. The Stars have found their offense as they have scored 3.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Dallas has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 5 or less. And the Over is 8-2-3 in the Stars’ last 13 games when favored in the -110 t0 -150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: This is been a higher scoring series with only Game Five seeing less than five combined goals scored and three of these contests seeing at least six combined goals were scored. 25* NHL Second Round NBC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (5) and the Dallas Stars (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-04-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 221 |
Top |
121-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (589) and the Houston Rockets (590). THE SITUATION: Golden State (63-27) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 115-109 victory over Houston (57-32) as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rockets host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contests. They return home where the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games — and they have also played 5 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Rockets’ have more than an 0-2 deficit to be concerned about after James Harden got his eyes raked on Tuesday. While Harden will play, he indicates that he is still feeling the effects of that injury. Houston made 46.8% of their shots in Game Two which was actually the best field goal percentage in their last five games. The Rockets have been thriving in the last quarter of the regular season by significantly ramping up their play on the defensive end of the court. Over the last fifteen games of the regular season, Houston had the fourth best Defensive Rating in the NBA. In these playoffs, the Rockets are allowing only 101.1 PPG along with a 42.3% field goal percentage which is far below the 108.5 PPG they are allowing for the season along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.3%. In their last five playoff games, Houston is holding their opponents to just 100.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting from the field. The Rockets have played a decisive 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Golden State is not often the underdog — the two-time defending NBA champions usually tighten things up on the defensive end of the court when their victory is not a foregone conclusion (in their minds). The Warriors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when they were the underdog — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The 46.8% shooting percentage that Houston executed on Tuesday was the highest field goal percentage that the Warriors had allowed in their last three games. When playing on the road, Golden State holds its home hosts to just a 43.6% field goal percentage.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. And despite the high Totals that typically are associated with these two high scoring teams, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Second Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (589) and the Houston Rockets (590). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-04-19 |
Liverpool v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (28-7-1) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 5-0 victory at home over Huddersfield in their last EPL match last Friday. Newcastle United (11-9-6) comes off a 1-1 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion in their last match last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These are precarious times for Liverpool as they followed up their match with Huddersfield with the first leg of their Champions League Semifinals showdown with Barcelona which ended in a 3-0 loss. The Reds host the second leg of that contest midweek — so manager Jurgen Klopp will be keeping one eye with that impending rematch with his need to conserve the energy of his key players. Klopp does not need a blowout victory. However, Liverpool absolutely must generate the three points with a victory in this match to keep up their championship aspirations in the EPL as they are one point behind Manchester City. Things could get nervy for this team to register a goal. Before facing the bottom-feeder team in the league in Huddersfield who are already mathematically eliminated from not being relegated, the Reds had scored more than two goals just twice in their last five EPL matches. Liverpool’s offensive proficiency has been particularly slowed down when they are playing on the road away from Anfield. In their last nine EPL matches on the road, the Reds have scored more than two goals only once. Liverpool has still enjoyed great success because they have developed into an outstanding defensive team under Klopp. The acquisition of defenseman Virgil Van Dijk in last year’s winter transfer window has certainly played a huge role in their defensive transformation as he perhaps been the Most Valuable Player in the EPL. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest number in the league. Liverpool has allowed only ten goals in their 18 EPL matches on the road. And in their thirteen road games against the non-Big Six EPL sides, the Reds have surrendered a mere 5 goals. But also keep in mind that Liverpool has scored only 26 goals in those thirteen matches for flat 2.0 Goals-Per-Game average. Newcastle is a difficult opponent who plays a compact system that can be difficult to penetrate. The Magpies are happy to grind out low-scoring matches where they find scoring opportunities in cautious counter-attacking moments. Newcastle is in good form right now — they are 2-1-0 in their last three matches where they have allowed only two goals. In their last six matches on their home field at St. James Park, the Magpies have allowed only five goals — and they have conceded just 22 goals in their eighteen home matches this season. Newcastle has scored 22 goals in those eighteen home matches as well. Digging deeper, the Magpies have scored only nine goals in their eleven matches against one of the Big Six teams in the EPL — and they have conceded only nine goals in their five home matches against one of those Top Six EPL sides this season.
FINAL TAKE: Newcastle usually plays Liverpool tough — they have only lost once in their last seven home matches against the Reds. Liverpool will be cautious in this contest and will be very content with a 1-0 victory. While the Magpies are not likely to score a goal, the Reds are not likely to find the back of the net more than twice. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-19 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215 |
Top |
137-140 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (587) and the Portland Trail Blazers (588). THE SITUATION: Portland (58-31) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 97-90 upset victory over Denver (59-32) as a 4-point underdog. The Trail Blazers host the third and fourth of games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers in the opening game of this series by nailing 40.4% of their 3-pointers en route to a 50.6% shooting percentage for that game. It was a much different story in Game Two as they made only 6 of their 29 shots from behind the arc for a dismal 20.7% shooting percentage from 3-point land. Their 34.7% field goal percentage in that game was their lowest mark of the entire season. Denver has played 25 of their last 43 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nuggets have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, Denver goes back on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. The Nuggets score 107.4 PPG on the road — and they allowed 110.1 PPG in those contests. Denver has played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Portland has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory over a fellow Northwest Division rival — and this includes them play those last four situations Over the Total. The Over is also 21-8-2 in the Trail Blazers’ last 31 games when playing with one day of rest. Now Portland returns home where they are scoring 117.8 PPG on 47.7% shooting from the field. The Blazers pulled off their upset on Wednesday despite making only 42.4% of their shots. The Nuggets’ 34.7% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in Portland’s last 79 games. The Blazers allow their visitors to shoot 45% from the field which generates 109.3 PPG. The Over is 16-4-1 in Portland’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Blazers have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games played in Portland Over the Total. 25* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (587) and the Portland Trail Blazers (588). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-03-19 |
Bucks v. Celtics OVER 219 |
Top |
123-116 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (585) and the Boston Celtics (586). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (65-23) evened this series at 1-1 on Tuesday with their 123-102 victory over the Celtics. Boston (54-34) hosts Games Three and Four of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. They now go on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Celtics shot just 39.5% from the field on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last five games. They return home where they are making 47% of their shots en route to 113.0 PPG. Boston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 38 of their last 57 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. Lastly, the Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these two teams in Boston. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (585) and the Boston Celtics (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-19 |
Raptors v. 76ers OVER 216.5 |
Top |
95-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (581) and the Philadelphia 76ers (582). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-33) evened this series at 1-1 on Monday with their 94-89 upset victory at Toronto (63-26) as a 7.5-point underdog. The 76ers return home to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games after a victory by 6 points or less. The 76ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games over the Total when playing with two days of rest — and that extra day of rest should help Joel Embiid be ready to play this game as he deals with knee injuries. Philadelphia held the Raptors to just a 36.3% shooting percentage on Monday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 41 games. But the Sixers also shot just 39.5% from the field in that low-scoring game. Now Philly returns home where they are scoring 118.6 PPG on the strength of 48.5% shooting from the field. The 76ers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Toronto’s 36.3% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last 53 games. They also missed 27 shots from behind the arc on Monday — they should improve significantly on that resulting 27% mark from 3-point land tonight considering that they are making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Raptors are averaging 113.2 PPG when playing on the road. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Toronto has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, in Toronto’s last 18 games overall in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Raptors have played 13 of these games Over the Total. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Playoff Semifinals, Toronto has played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings in Toronto Over the Total. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (581) and the Philadelphia 76ers (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-01-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
Top |
97-90 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (577) and the Denver Nuggets (578). THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 121-113 victory over Portland (57-31). The Nuggets host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The silver lining for the Trail Blazers in Game One was that Enes Kanter was able to play despite a shoulder injury that had him questionable. Kanter played 33 minutes which allowed him to score 26 points while making 11 of his 14 shots. He is more of an offensive threat than Jusuf Nurkic who is out the season with an ankle injury. The problem for the Blazers with Kanter absorbing Nurkic’s minutes is that he is a liability on the defensive end of the court. Denver’s Nikola Jokic exploited him by scoring 37 points on 11 of 18 shooting while pulling down 9 rebounds. Kanter’s presence on both ends of the court has generated higher scoring games — and bettors have yet to catch up. Portland has played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Blazers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Over is 21-7-2 in Portland’s last 30 games when playing with one day of rest. And while this the Blazers just second game in the last seven days after they dismissed Oklahoma City in five games, they have played 4 straight games when playing their second game in seven days. Portland has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow Northwest Division opponents. Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against Northwest Division foes. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Nuggets increase their offensive proficiency when playing at home — they are scoring 113.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting from the field at the Pepsi Center as compared to their 110.4 PPG scoring overall on 46.6% shooting this season. Denver has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing in Denver. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (577) and the Denver Nuggets (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-19 |
Rockets v. Warriors OVER 220.5 |
Top |
109-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (573) and the Golden State Warriors (574). THE SITUATION: Golden State (62-27) won the opening game of this series on Sunday with their 104-100 victory over Houston (57-31). The Warriors host the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State smoked this Rockets team who had been playing good defense by making 50.7% of their shots on Sunday. The Warriors have a 49.2% field goal percentage at home in the Oracle Center which has translated into 118.2 PPG. Over their last five games, Golden State is making 50% of their shots — and they are shooting 50.3% from the field so far in these playoffs. This shapes up to be a high-scoring game as the Warriors have played 8 of their last 9 second games to a new playoff series Over the Total. Golden State has also played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series — and this includes them playing three of these last four games Over the Total when leading in that playoff series. Houston should shoot better than the 41.9% field goal percentage they endured in the opening game of this series. The Rockets have played four straight games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing four straight games Under the Total. Houston averages 110.2 PPG when playing on the road. The Rockets have also been out-rebounded by 13, 14, and 14 boards in each of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded in their last three games by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. Houston has also played 14 of their last 21 second games in a new playoff series Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen their last three games finish Under the Total — but the first game these two teams played in 2019 was in the Oracle Center where the Rockets won by a 135-134 score. After Game One finished Under the Total by more than 20 points, look for this game to finish Over the Total. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (573) and the Golden State Warriors (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 215 |
Top |
113-121 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). THE SITUATION: Portland (57-30) takes the court again for the first time since last Tuesday after they disposed of Oklahoma City in five games with their 118-115 win as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver (58-31) defeated San Antonio on Sunday by a 90-86 score as a 6.5-point favorite to win that series in seven games. The Nuggets host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and the Over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Portland launched 96 shots in that game after attempting 90 shots in Game Four of that series. The Blazers have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Portland now goes back on the road where they are scoring 111.0 PPG while also allowing 111.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The Nuggets shot just 39.8% from the field in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. Denver survived because they limited the Spurs to shooting only 36.5% which was the best defensive effort in their last sixteen games. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Denver stays at home where they are scoring 113.0 PPG this season on 48.2% shooting from the field — and they are making 48.3% of their shots in the playoffs. The Nuggets have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 encounters Over the Total when playing in Denver. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-19 |
Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6 |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (53) and the San Jose Sharks (54). THE SITUATION: San Jose (51-30-7) won the opening game of this series on Friday with their 5-2 victory over Colorado (42-32-14). The Sharks host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Jose has played 13 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after a win by at least two goals. The Sharks have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two goals in their last game. San Jose is scoring 3.7 Goals-Per-Game on their home ice this season — and they have generated ten goals over their last two games. The Sharks have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in two straight games. But this San Jose team is also allowing 2.9 Goals-Per-Game at home this season with their tendency to have their offensive-minded defensemen, Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson, play aggressively up the ice. In the playoffs, the Sharks are allowing 3.4 Goals-Per-Game. The Sharks stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. San Jose has also played 5 straight games Over the Total in the playoffs as the favorite. Colorado has played 31 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. The Avalanche had won four straight games in their series with Calgary before dropping Game One of this series — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. This is Colorado’s fifth game over the last fourteen days — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing no more than five games in the last fourteen days.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost their last five meetings with the Sharks — and they have played 37 of their last 57 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge. The Over is also 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in San Jose. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (53) and the San Jose Sharks (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 222.5 |
Top |
95-108 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Philadelphia 76ers (553) and the Toronto Raptors (554). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-32) has won four straight games after they disposed of Brooklyn in five games culminating in a 122-100 victory at home on Tuesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Toronto (62-35) has won four straight games as well after taking care of Orlando in five games after their 115-96 victory at home over the Magic on Tuesday as an 11-point favorite. The Raptors host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 76ers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a victory by at least 20 points over a fellow Atlantic Division rival — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning their last two games against divisional foes. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. The Sixers held the Nets to just 38.7% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last twenty games. Philadelphia did not let Brooklyn shoot better than 41.1% from the field in the last three games of that series — but they have then played a decisive 46 of their last 72 games Over the Total after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Furthermore, the Sixers controlled the boards in their series against the Nets as they out-rebounded them by at least 7 rebounds per game in all five games of that series. Philly has then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last five opponents by at least 5.0 RPG. Moving forward, the 76ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Toronto has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Raptors have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Toronto has also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Raptors also played very good defense in their opening series as well — they have not allowed their last seven opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. But Toronto has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after not allowing at least three straight opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 meetings Over the Total — and this includes them playing 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. Expect these team trends to continue tonight in this opening game of this Eastern Conference Semifinals series. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Philadelphia 76ers (553) and the Toronto Raptors (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-19 |
Stars v. Blues OVER 5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
115 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (41) and the St. Louis Blues (42). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (50-30-9) won the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 3-2 victory over Dallas (47-35-9). The Blues host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: St. Louis has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a win over a fellow Central Division rival — and they have also played six straight games at home Over the Total after a victory over a divisional foe. Furthermore, the Blues have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a win on their home ice. Additionally, St. Louis has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow victory by just one goal. The Blues have played three straight games that concluded with 3-2 scores which makes taking the Over seem like a safe investment with a Push being the worst case scenario. St. Louis has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by just one goal. The Blues score 3.2 Goals-Per-Game on home ice this season — but they are also allowing 3.0 Goals-Per-Game at home. In defeating Winnipeg in six games last round, St, Louis converted on 5 of their 19 Power Play opportunities which translated into an impressive 26.3% success rate. Dallas has seen at least five combined goals scored in four of their last five games. While the Stars have been an Under machine for much of the season, they have quietly players 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the month of April. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 5. Over their last five games, the Stars are scoring 3.2 Goals-Per-Game. When playing on the road, Dallas allows 2.6 Goals-Per-Game. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-7 in the Stars’ last 16 playoff games as a money-line underfoot priced in the +110 to +150 range. The Over is also 3-0-4 in the Stars’ last 7 games in the Western Conference Playoff Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set at 5, the worst case scenario is likely another 3-2 final score — but I do think both teams find the back of the net three times (or perhaps this game ends with a 4-2 score). 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (41) and the St. Louis Blues (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (5) and the San Jose Sharks (6). THE SITUATION: Colorado (42-31-14) takes the ice again after winning four straight games to dispatch of Calgary in five games with their 5-1 win on the road last Friday. San Jose (50-30-7) has won three straight games after surviving their seven-game series with Vegas on Sunday with their 5-4 victory in overtime. The Sharks host the first two games of this seven-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sharks rallied from being down 3-1 in that series with the Golden Knights to eke out the last two games in that series in overtime. San Jose has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after going to overtime in their last two contests — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by just one goal against a Pacific Division rival. The Sharks have also played 71 of their last 111 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least four goals. Remember, that Game Seven was looking like another shutout in that series for goalie Marc-Andre Fleury before that controversial call on Vegas when Joe Pavelski was double-hit and fell to the ice where his head started bleeding. Replays strongly suggest that the second hit from Paul Stastny was an inadvertent bump — but the five-minute major that was called on the Golden Knights resulted in a five-minute power play where the Sharks scored four times with the man-advantage to jumpstart their offense. Perhaps the most important development during that series was the improved play of goalie Martin Jones. After allowing 13 goals on 80 shots for a rough .838 save percentage in the first four games of that series, he stopped 122 of the next 129 shots he faced for a sparkling .946 save percentage in those three elimination games which included over two full periods of overtime hockey. San Jose was converting on only 4 of their 29 (13.8%) of their Power Play chances in that series before that miraculous five-minute Power Play on Sunday. But the ripple effect from that game will be felt tonight with Pavelski being declared out for Game One as he recovers from that head injury. Not only will the Sharks miss his 38 goals in the regular season, but head coach Peter DeBoer moved him to the second-line help provide his team more depth. Colorado has seen the Under go 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. The Avalanche has also scored at least three goals in four straight games — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. Colorado has a dynamic first line of forwards led by Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. But what the Sharks got better at in their series with Vegas was contain their elite line of Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Statsny which they checked with the defensive pairing of Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Brent Burns — and DeBoer has final choice regarding what players to put on the ice as the home team so he can ensure that top pair will combat MacKinnon and company. After losing by a 5-0 score in Game Four, the Sharks allowed only seven goals in the remaining three games in that series which went around 220 minutes of ice time when accounting for overtimes. What was underappreciated about the Avalanche in the first round was their strong defensive play against the Flames as they allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in those five games while not allowing more than two goals in those last four games. They stay on the road where the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in Colorado’s last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on home ice.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 6th where San Jose won at home by a 5-2 margin. The Avalanche have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least three goals. 25* NHL Bailout Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (5) and the San Jose Sharks (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Rockies v. Braves UNDER 9 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: Colorado (11-14) enters this series having won eight of their last ten games with their 9-1 victory over Washington on Wednesday. Atlanta (12-11) has lost two of their last three games after a 4-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after an off day. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 22-6-3 in their last 31 games. They give the ball to Senzatela who is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in two starts this season — and he has pitched at least 6 innings in both those starts. The 24-year old right-hander was 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP last season — but he was more effective away from Coors Field where he saw his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.01 and 1.11 marks while posting an impressive .220 opponent’s batting average. In his one start on the road this year, Senzatela allowed only 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work at San Diego. Colorado has played 8 straight road games Under the Total with Senzatela on the hill. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. Now the Braves return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Fried who has been outstanding so far this season with a 3-0 record along with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in four starts. Two of those starts were at home where he sported a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where the left-hander had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 15 innings at home as compared to his 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 18 2/3 innings on the road. I pay close attention to sample sizes — but I feel comfortable with Fried’s career 2.80 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 34 2/3 innings of work when pitching at his Sun Trust Field in Atlanta. Fried faces a Rockies team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .199 batting average along with a .242 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 this year. The Under is 40-19-2 in Colorado’s last 61 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-7-2 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies are looking to avenge a 7-1 loss at home as a small money-line favorite against the Braves back on April 9th. Colorado has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. Lastly, these two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Atlanta Under the Total. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (7) and the New York Islanders (8). THE SITUATION: Carolina (50-32-7) has won four of their last five games after defeating the Capitals in Washington on Wednesday with their 4-3 win in overtime in the climactic seventh game of that series. New York (52-27-7) has won their last six games after completing their seven-game sweep of the Penguins with their 3-1 win in Pittsburgh back on April 16th. The Islanders host this game in the Barclays Center to begin this seven-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Carolina has also won 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals against a Metropolitan Division rival in their last game. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after playing a game on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Carolina is getting outstanding goaltending from Petr Mrazek who had a 1.83 Goals-Against-Average with a .938 save percentage after the All-Star Break during the regular season. The Hurricanes held the Capitals to just 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over the last five games in that series. Carolina has also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total when playing Metropolitan Division rivals. And while the Hurricanes have played three straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. New York has only allowed one goal in each of their last three games. Goalie Robin Lehner enjoys a 2.05 Goals-Against-Average with a .929 save percentage when playing at home this season. Over their last five games, the Islanders allowed only 1.2 Goals-Per-Game. Moving forward, the Under is 34-16-2 in New York’s last 52 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. But the Isles will likely be rusty in their offensive execution after not being in a real game in ten days. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. New York has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Islanders led the NHL by allowing only 196 goals this season — and the Hurricanes were not far behind as they finished tied for sixth in fewest goals allowed. While I suspect some of the games in this series to finish Over the Total, look for both these teams to be cautious in this opener. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (7) and the New York Islanders (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Huddersfield Town v. Liverpool UNDER 4 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (3-5-27) limps into this match coming off a 2-1 loss to Watford last Saturday. Liverpool (27-7-1) comes off a 2-1 win at Cardiff City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Huddersfield is not likely to score a goal in this match. The Terriers have scored the fewest goals in the league at 20 — and that number drops to just 11 goals in their 17 matches on the road. Even worse, Huddersfield has scored only three times in their 10 matches against one of the Big Six franchises this season. The Terriers are cemented to be relegated to the Champions League — so this match is all about pride. Don’t be surprised if they park the proverbial bus in their back end to limit the Reds damage. On the plus side, the 29 goals they have surrendered against Big Six competition in ten matches results in less than 3.0 Goals Allowed per match. Yet this remains a side that has not scored a goal in seven of their last English Premier League matches on the road. And while they have allowed 69 goals this season with 39 of these goals being on the road — the Expected Goals metric indicates that they should have allowed just 60.78 goals overall this season along with only 32.00 goals allowed when playing on the road. Liverpool needs every point possible in their fight for first place with Manchester City. But the Reds will be without their top forward in Roberto Firminho who meager Jurgen Klopp has announced will not play today because of a muscle injury. While Liverpool is still loaded with goal scorers led by midfielders Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, the absence of Firminho hurts their cohesion up top. As it is, the Reds have not scored more than three goals in five straight EPL matches. But Liverpool has held their last two EPL opponents scoreless. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest mark in the league. In twelve home matches against the non-Big Six sides this season, Liverpool has scored a solid but not overwhelming 36 goals — while allowing just 7 goals in those matches.
FINAL TAKE: This match looks destined to be 3-0. The Reds should average their three goals in these situations — but it will be very difficult for Huddersfield to find the back of the net once. With the Total set at 4.0, we have a reasonable cushion. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-19 |
Stars v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). THE SITUATION: Dallas (47-34-7) won the last three games of their opening round series to defeat Nashville in six games with their 2-1 victory in overtime on Monday. St. Louis (49-30-9) won their last two games in their series with Winnipeg to also dispatch of them in six games with their 3-2 victory last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 31-13-7 in the Stars’ last 51 games after a victory — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win over a Central Division rival. Dallas has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one goal — and the Under is 19-5-6 in their last 30 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Stars were the second best defensive team in the NHL during the regular season where they allowed just 2.44 Goals-Per-Game. Goalie Ben Bishop enjoyed a 1.15 Goals-Against-Average with a .962 save percentage in his fifteen regular season starts after the All-Star Break. Dallas allowed only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games. But this team also scores only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game when playing on the road with only their top forward line being a reliable source of goals. The Under is 17-6-4 in the Stars’ last 27 games on the road — and the Under is 13-4-4 in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 10-2-2 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. St. Louis has played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. They are led by a red hot goaltender that spearheaded their strong second half of the season in rookie Jordan Bennington who enjoyed a 1.90 GAA with a .928 save percentage in the twenty-three regular season starts after the All-Star Break. The Blues have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when priced as a favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. The Under is also 20-8-2 in St. Louis’ last 30 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas was a perfect 15 of 15 with their Power Play kills in the opening round of the playoffs — and the Blues were solid by allowing only three goals in fourteen Power Plays for the Jets. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Expect this opening game to continue this low-scoring tempo. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-19 |
Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total run in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). THE SITUATION: Columbus (51-31-4) takes the ice with this first time since April 16th after they completed an improbable 4-0 sweep over Tampa Bay that concluded with a 7-3 victory back on April 16th. Boston (53-27-9) pulled out a seven-game series on Tuesday when they defeated Toronto by a 5-1 score. The Bruins host the opening two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jackets will likely be a bit rusty having not played in twelve days. Their head coach, John Tortorella, is a veteran who has led a previous team to a Stanley Cup championship and he will likely continue to rely on his team playing very physical to set the tone on defense. As it is, the Under is 25-11-4 in Columbus’ last 40 games after a victory — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games after a win at home by a test four goals. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-2 in the Blue Jackets’ last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against a team that did not allow more than two goals in their last contest. The team is getting great goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky who stopped 109 of his 117 shots against the Lightning for a stellar .936 save percentage in that series. Columbus is the hottest team in the NHL right now as they have only lost once since March 24th — and the play of their goaltender has played a big role in their surge. Since the All-Star Break, Bobrovsky has a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average along with a .924 save percentage. The Blue Jackets have allowed only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Now they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. The Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have also played 7 straight home games Under the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Furthermore, the Bruins have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win over an Atlantic Division rival. Boston will be happy to grind out a heavy-hitting lower scoring game with the Blue Jackets — they finished tied for third in the regular season by allowing only 2.59 Goals-Per-Game. Their goalie, Tuukka Rask, stopped 32 of the 33 shots he faced against the Maple Leafs to lead his team to that Game Seven victory. Rask entered these playoffs with a career 2.25 GAA along with a .924 save percentage in 65 games. Additionally, the Under is 13-4-5 in Boston’s last 22 games in the playoffs as a favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Columbus’ only loss since Match 24th was a 6-2 loss at home to the Bruins back on April 2nd as a -140 money-line favorite. The Blue Jackets have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss — and they have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. Boston has won the last two meetings between these two teams — and Columbus has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Columbus Blue Jackets (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
129-121 |
Loss |
-101 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (515) and the Golden State Warriors (516). THE SITUATION: Golden State (60-26) took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 113-105 victory over the Clippers (49-37). The Warriors look to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Warriors took 13 fewer free throws on Monday after attempting 16 fewer free throws than the Clippers in Game Three — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after attempting at least ten fewer free throws than their opponent in two straight games. Now Golden State returns home to the Oracle Center where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total. And in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court, Los Angeles has played 16 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home their opponent. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (515) and the Golden State Warriors (516). Best luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-19 |
Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
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At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (503) and the Portland Trail Blazers (504). THE SITUATION: Portland (56-30) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their 111-98 upset victory in Oklahoma City against the Thunder (50-36). The Trail Blazers return home with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Oklahoma City offense has stalled in their three losses where they have failed to score even 100 points. Paul George is showing signs of being less than 100% with injuries to both his shoulders. He is making only 37% of his shots in this series while shooting just 30.8% from behind the arc — he is simply not close to his outstanding form in February prior to the All-Star Break when he was making a case to being the league’s Most Valuable Player. Russell Westbrook is also struggling as he is making only 36.3% of his shots in this series while shooting only 30.4% from behind the arc. The Thunder have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in OKC’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Thunder have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 74 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Under is 50-23-1. Portland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games after a win over a Northwest Division rival. The Trail Blazers have also played 5 of their last games Under the Total after a point spread win. Portland certainly deserves much of the credit for the strong defense they are playing in this series. The Blazers have held the Thunder to just 41.3% shooting percentage from the field along with a low 30.8% mark from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA First Round Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (503) and the Portland Trail Blazers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-19 |
Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 215 |
Top |
91-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
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At 10:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (575) and the Utah Jazz (576). THE SITUATION: Houston (50-35) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday night with their 104-101 upset win in Utah (50-35) as a 2-point underdog. The Jazz host Game Four looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a pulling off an upset victory — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games after a victory by 6 points or less. That game finished below the 214.5 point Total — and Houston has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Rockets are playing their best defense of the season. They have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting percentage. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after holding their last five opponents to no higher than a 42% field goal percentage. Now the Rockets go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Houston has played an incredible 36 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing eleven of their last fourteen games Under the Total in that situation. Additionally, the Rockets have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to close out a playoff series. Utah has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Over their last five games, this team is shooting only 43.3% from the field. The Jazz stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Round One Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (575) and the Utah Jazz (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-19 |
Predators v. Stars UNDER 5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
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At 8:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (85) and the Dallas Stars (86). THE SITUATION: Dallas (46-34-7) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Saturday with their victory at Nashville (49-32-6). The Stars have the opportunity to close out this series tonight back on their home ice.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas is getting it done with their defense as they ave allowed only eleven goals in the first five games of this series. The Stars not only play a cautious style of play but they are also getting outstanding goaltending from Ben Bishop. The veteran had a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average during the regular season with a .934 save percentage — and those numbers improved to a 1.90 GAA with a .937 save percentage when playing at home. The Under is 30-14-7 in Dallas’ last 51 games after a win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a win. Furthermore, the Stars have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road where they scored at least four goals. Additionally, Dallas has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Now the Stars return home where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 13-3-1 in their last 17 home games when priced as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range. Nashville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have also played ten of their last fifteen games Under the Total after a loss at home to a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Under is 22-7-5 in the Predators’ last 34 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games against opponents who scored at least five goals in their last contest. This team has to tighten things up on defense after allowing ten goals in their last two games. Nashville has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in two straight games. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Additionally, the Preds have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: Nashville has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road where are attempting to avenge two straight losses by at least two goals. 25* NHL First Round CNBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (85) and the Dallas Stars (86). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-21-19 |
Braves v. Indians OVER 8 |
Top |
11-5 |
Win
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101 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (10-10) snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday by defeating Cleveland (12-8) by an 8-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win. The Atlanta bullpen has been busy as of late as they have pitched 15 combined innings over their last three games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after pitching at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. They send out Fried who is 2-0 with an 0.92 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP so far this season. While those numbers look great, the fact that the left-hander is striking out only 5.5 batters per 9 innings of work is of concern. Both his SIERA and xFIP project significant regression with those numbers projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 3.80 moving forward. Fried was more effective at home last year where he had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.287 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 — but those numbers rose to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 when pitching on the road. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Over is 22-7-2 in the Braves’ last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Fried faces an Indians team that scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Cleveland (12-8) has played 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play Over the Total. The Indians’ bullpen has been roughed up as of late after they blew the save yesterday by surrendering 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland’s pen has an 8.25 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has a 6.50 ERA or worse over their last five contests. They counter with Bieber who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP so far this season. But his SIERA and xFIP project a decline in those numbers as they project an ERA of 3.78 and 3.99 respectively moving forward. Bieber was not as effective when pitching at home last year where he had a 5.88 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 as compared to his 3.56 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 when on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bieber on the bump after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Cleveland has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They face a hot Braves lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games with a .261 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .353 and an OPS of .819. Atlanta also scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-3-4 in the Indians’ last 22 home games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. The sample size regarding the number of starts a pitcher has made with his team is an important factor before I feel comfortable investing in April baseball action. With both these pitchers with their same team from last year — and with both with a growing set of 2019 data that says they are overachieving relative to their frontline ERA and WHIP numbers — let’s attack this early season opportunity. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-20-19 |
Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 217 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Detroit Pistons (562). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (62-22) took a commanding 2-0 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 120-99 victory over Detroit (41-43) as a 15.5-point favorite. The Pistons host Games Three and Four tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Detroit has not been able to put up much of a fight without their best offensive option in Blake Griffin who is likely to miss the third game in this series. The Pistons made only 37.4% of their shots on Wednesday. Over their last five games, Detroit is scoring only 99.2 PPG while shooting 39.9% from the field as opposed to their 106.7 PPG scoring average for the season on 43.8% shooting. The Pistons have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a double-digit loss. Detroit was also not competitive in the first game of this series which they lost by a 121-86 score. The Pistons have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits — and this includes them playing their last six games Under the Total after losing their last two games on the road by at least 10 points. Detroit should play better on defense back at home tonight after allowing the Bucks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Pistons hold their guests to just 46.0% shooting — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in Detroit’s last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. Now the Bucks go on the road where they have played 48 of their last 77 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Milwaukee has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range overall. And in their last 16 games against fellow Central Division opponents, the Bucks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Detroit Pistons (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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