Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-24 | Arkansas v. Missouri -4.5 | 91-84 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Missouri minus the points over Arkansas at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Missouri got off to a 7-2 start this season and gave Kansas all it could handle in Lawrence on December 9th. Unfortunately that loss to the Jayhawks kicked off a 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS slide. This is as good of a chance as any to end its seven-game losing streak as Mizzou hosts Arkansas on Wednesday. The Razorbacks are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS over their last seven contests. They did lose by 'only' six points at home against Kentucky on Saturday but that had more to do with the Wildcats having an off shooting day than anything else. While KenPom does have Arkansas ranking considerably higher than Missouri in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, I would flip those rankings based on recent results. Arkansas has allowed nine of its last 10 opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts. Of the Hogs last 12 opponents, 10 have knocked down 25 or more field goals with three of their last seven foes connecting on more than 30. While Missouri hasn't been all that explosive offensively, it has been fairly consistent, knocking down at least 23 field goals in 18 of 20 games this season. Arkansas has been held to 20 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four games alone. On the flip side, Missouri has held six of its last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Arkansas is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 lined road games and 7-12 ATS in its last 19 contests following a home loss in which it scored less than 60 points, as is the case here. Missouri is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 65 points or less in consecutive games. Take Missouri (8*). |
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01-30-24 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -1.5 | 73-53 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas State got blasted on the road against Houston on Saturday as it was stymied by the Cougars elite defense, knocking down just 19-of-47 field goals in a 74-52 loss. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Tuesday as they return home to face Oklahoma. Kansas State has lost two games in a row SU and three straight ATS. Note that it is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons (this marks the first time it has lost three straight games ATS over that stretch). The Wildcats are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest. Oklahoma is coming off consecutive losses and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to knock down 26 or more field goals. In stark contrast, Kansas State has held seven of its last eight foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. KenPom has the Wildcats ranked just seven spots above the Sooners in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency but I believe that's a little light. Offensively, Oklahoma is superior but certainly not by all that wide of a margin and home court is the great equalizer here. Note that the Sooners are just 9-14 ATS in their last 23 games as a road underdog. They haven't proven to be a great bounce-back team, going 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a home loss in-conference. Take Kansas State (8*). |
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01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-24 | Houston v. Texas +5.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas plus the points over Houston at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams had much different outcomes on Saturday as Houston rolled to a 74-52 home win over Kansas State while Texas fell by a score of 84-72 at Big 12 newcomer BYU. I expect this in-state showdown to go down to the wire on Monday and will grab all the points I can get with the Longhorns. Note that Houston is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 contests following a win by 20 points or more against a conference foe. Texas may not rank as highly as Houston in terms of offensive efficiency this season but there's no denying it has been ultra-consistent. The Longhorns have knocked down at least 24 field goals in all 20 games. They'll obviously be tested by Houston's incredible defense on Monday. By nature, Houston has a tendency to shorten proceedings as it checks in ranked 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). That generally favors the underdog. Note that Texas can play some defense too, noting it has held five straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent. They're also 8-6 ATS in their last 14 contests after giving up 80 points or more in their previous game. Take Texas (8*). |
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01-28-24 | Marist v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kentucky v. Arkansas OVER 164 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday. Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kansas State v. Houston UNDER 128.5 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-26-24 | Ohio +3.5 v. Kent State | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Kent State at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Bobcats as they look to bounce back following a home loss to Akron last time out. Kent State is fresh off a minor upset win at Bowling Green earlier this week but checks in having lost consecutive games at home. Note that the Golden Flashes have won four straight meetings in this series. That's worth mentioning as they haven't won five in a row against the Bobcats since 2009-11. The last time they managed to win four straight games in this series was back in 2014-16 and they went on to lose the next two meetings. While Ohio doesn't rate out all that highly in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season it has played better in that regard lately. The Bobcats have held four straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Kent State on the other hand has given up 28 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests. Offensively, the two teams have been almost mirror images however you could argue that Ohio has been the more consistent team lately in that regard, connecting on 26 or more field goals in six of its last seven games (Kent State made good on 21, 32, 21 and 31 field goals over its last four contests). Ohio is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games following a road loss against a conference opponent. The Bobcats are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests after being held to 60 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, Kent State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games following a road win in which it scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. The Golden Flashes are also just 1-5 ATS following an ATS victory this season. Take Ohio (10*). |
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01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 152 | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mount St. Mary's and Quinnipiac at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday. Mount St. Mary's ran into a red hot Niagara squad on Sunday, falling by a score of 82-71. Note that the Mountaineers have seen the 'under' go 10-2 in their last 12 games following an upset loss. Mount St. Mary's has allowed just one of its 18 opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals this season. While that's a reasonably high number of field goals to use as a benchmark, it works in the context of this game with the total set in the low-150's at the time of writing. Quinnipiac has reeled off five straight victories going 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch. It actually doesn't run all that efficient of an offense but thrives on pushing the pace, something I'm not sure it will be able to do as much as it would like on Thursday (Mount St. Mary's has held opponents to just 57 field goal attempts per game on the road this season). Much of the Bobcats success has come as a result of a rather soft schedule, noting they've faced only the 358th most difficult schedule (out of 362 Division-I teams) in the country according to KenPom. The 'under' is 9-4 in Quinnipiac's last 13 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the Bobcats last eight contests when coming off a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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01-24-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 134.5 | 67-78 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Iowa State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Wednesday. Kansas State ranks 261st in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, while also checking in sporting the 21st best defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency). The Wildcats have held an incredible five of their last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. The Cyclones are a good but certainly not great offensive team. They did knock down 29-of-62 field goal attempts in an upset win at TCU last time out but that represented a high-water mark over their last five contests. They've connected on 27 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. On the flip side, Iowa State has been even better than Kansas State defensively, ranking an impressive third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. It has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the opposition has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down against the Cylones, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in six of the last eight games against them. Kansas State doesn't figure to push all that hard in that department, attempting 54 or fewer field goals in four straight and six of its last seven games heading in. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in the Wildcats last 12 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is an identical 8-4 in Iowa State's last 12 contests following consecutive 'over' results and 12-7 in its last 19 games following an upset victory. Take the under (8*). |
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01-24-24 | Mississippi State +4 v. Florida | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Florida at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Mississippi State checks in 0-2-1 ATS over its last three games but I look for it to break out of that slump as it travels to Gainesville to face the Gators on Wednesday. The Bulldogs are an underdog we like to back as they have the ability to consistently erase opponents' possessions and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that they've limited the opposition to 22-of-56 shooting on average on the road this season. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and that's notable as Florida is just 1-5 ATS when knocking down 27 or fewer field goals this season. The Gators check in off a double-digit win at Missouri last time out, successfully rebounding from a blowout loss in Tennessee four nights earlier. Florida has been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as it gets, particularly on defense as it has given up more than 30 made field goals in three of its last five contests. It has had no desire to slow the pace, certainly not at home where it has yielded an average of 65 field goal attempts per game to the opposition. Noting the Bulldogs have knocked down 25 or more field goals in six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall, I look for them to take full advantage here. The underdog has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 20-15 ATS in their last 35 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Meanwhile, the Gators are just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following a double-digit victory. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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01-23-24 | Boston College +5.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Like clockwork, Boston College has delivered five straight outright victories as an underdog in this series, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. While I'm not calling for an outright win on Tuesday, I do expect the Eagles to once again hang tough against the Hokies in Blacksburg. Note that Boston College has dropped the cash in four straight games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is fresh off an 84-78 upset win at N.C. State on Saturday. We have seen the Hokies offense sag at times since the beginning of ACC play, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Also note that Virginia Tech plays at a rather methodical pace, hoisting up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of its last 11 and 16 of 18 games overall this season. That leaves little margin for error when you're laying a considerable number of points as the Hokies are on Tuesday. On the flip side, we've seen Virginia Tech's opposition get some good looks, connecting on 30, 28, 28, 27, 25 and 26 field goals in its last six contests. Boston College has run into a bit of a shooting slump, knocking down only 21 and 19 field goals in its last two games. Note that prior to that, the Eagles had made good on an impressive 30 or more field goals in six of their previous eight contests. Defensively, we've actually seen some improvement from Boston College lately as it has limited three of its last four opponents to 25 of fewer made field goals. Note that the Eagles are 17-12 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss against a conference opponent. They're also 13-7 ATS in their last 20 contests after losing four games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 15-23 ATS in its last 38 games following an upset win away from home and 23-26 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Boston College (10*). |
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01-22-24 | Cincinnati v. Kansas -7 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Cincinnati at 9 pm et on Monday. Kansas was stunned as a double-digit road favorite against West Virginia on Saturday but I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back on as they return home to face Cincinnati on Monday. That loss to the Mountaineers doesn't change the fact that Kansas is an offensive juggernaut having knocked down 31, 32, 24, 29, 36 and 32 field goals over its last six games. The Jayhawks have held four straight opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. West Virginia quite simply shot the lights out against them on Saturday. It happens. Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 about as difficult as expected having dropped three of its last four games. Since the start of conference play, the Bearcats have been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in three of five games. Note that Cincinnati is just 33-40 ATS in its last 73 games following an upset loss in-conference, as is the case here. Kansas checks in a long-term 41-29 ATS off a road loss in Big 12 play. It's easy to think the sky is falling in Lawrence following a loss like the Jayhawks suffered on Saturday. That's simply not the case, however, as Kansas is 15-3 on the campaign despite facing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. Take Kansas (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Fairfield v. Manhattan +7.5 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Manhattan plus the points over Fairfield at 2 pm et on Sunday. While Fairfield is coming off a hard-fought nine-point home win over St. Peter's on Friday, Manhattan has been idle since last Sunday, when it suffered its eighth straight defeat. I look for the Jaspers to give the Stags all they can handle in this spot, noting Manhattan has gone 30-24 ATS in its last 54 games as an underdog and 25-22 ATS in its last 47 contests following a double-digit home loss. While Fairfield's offense has been humming it has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 30, 28, 26, 23, 34, 26 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Manhattan has employed a similar matador-like defense but it isn't the team laying all the points in this spot. Fairfield is 9-13 ATS in its last 22 games played on one day or less of rest and 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Additionally, the Stags are a long-term 22-29 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games. Also note that the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take Manhattan (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Georgia +12 v. Kentucky | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia plus the points over Kentucky at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm not buying what the betting marketplace is selling when it comes to Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off a rout of Mississippi State on Wednesday as they quite simply shot the lights out and also enjoyed a considerable advantage at the free throw line. Still, the Wildcats defense continues to struggle. Kentucky has allowed 26 or more made field goals in six straight games and 25 or more in 12 contests in a row. Georgia got off to a miserable start this season but has since turned things around, going 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS over its last 12 games. The Bulldogs have limited four of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. We'll confidently fade the Wildcats knowing they've gone 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games following a home win in which they scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. Georgia is 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests following an upset win, which is also the situation on Saturday. Take Georgia (8*). |
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01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-24 | Washington State +2.5 v. Stanford | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. I have little faith in Stanford's matador-like defense, noting that the Cardinal have allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games and have yielded 61 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in eight of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Washington State checks in having held 12 of its last 15 opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. The Cougars rank 54th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While Stanford's pace will certainly test Washington State, I don't think it's anything the Cougars haven't seen before. After all, they just upset Arizona (which ranks ninth in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom) last Saturday. Note that Washington State is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 games following a win in-conference as an underdog of six points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Stanford is just 1-5 ATS in its last six contests off consecutive victories in-conference. Take Washington State (8*). |
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01-17-24 | Mississippi State +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off narrow defeats in conference play with Mississippi State dropping an 82-74 decision at home against Alabama and Kentucky falling by a 97-92 score at Texas A&M. I don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as the line would seem to indicate. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, currently ranked inside the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Incredibly, they've held all 16 opponents they've faced to 28 or fewer made field goals this season with 12 of those knocking down 24 or less. Kentucky does play at a considerably faster pace than Mississippi State but there's no denying its opponents have been 'filling it up' as it has allowed 26 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. On the flip side, the Wildcats have regularly been connecting on 30+ field goals but they've also gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. Only six of Mississippi State's 16 opponents have hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts this season with a high water mark of only 64. This is a game the Bulldogs have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar having lost two straight meetings in this series. Note that while Kentucky has controlled this series for the most part, the games have been close with six straight matchups having been decided by eight points or less. Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off an upset loss as a favorite in-conference, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests after winning two of its last three games ATS. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade Washington off its win and cover against Arizona State on Thursday. UCLA had a much different result on that same night as it dropped a 90-44 decision at Utah. The Bruins have been a pretty big disappointment to this point of the season and the turnaround needs to start now. The good news is, they've won eight straight meetings in this series. Note that Washington is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. UCLA is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 contests after losing three of its last four games ATS and 3-1 ATS in its last four games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take UCLA (8*). |
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01-13-24 | California v. Oregon -8 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but think California is walking into a hornet's nest in Eugene on Saturday. The Golden Bears trailed big early but staged a furious rally in the second half to upset Colorado two nights ago in Berkeley. Now they have to hit the road to face a red hot Oregon squad that has won five straight and eight of its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. The Ducks have been idle since last Saturday's five-point win as an underdog at Washington State. Cal has been thriving offensively but here it runs into an Oregon squad that has held seven of its last eight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or less. Note that Cal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Oregon (10*). |
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01-12-24 | Manhattan v. Rider -10 | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rider minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the average better realizes just how bad Manhattan is this season. The Jaspers rank 342nd out of 362 Division-I teams according to KenPom. Their offense ranks 351st. Rider is still trying to get loose following a tough start to the season that was largely fuelled by a difficult schedule (the Broncs have faced the 95th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom). We saw positive strides from the Broncs last weekend as they took Quinnipiac down to the wire in a four-point road loss before outlasting Canisius in overtime back at home. Note that Manhattan is currently on a 1-5 ATS slide while the favorite has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Rider (8*). |
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01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). |
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01-11-24 | Michigan v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these Big Ten squads enter on a downturn with the Wolverines having dropped four in a row SU and five straight games ATS and the Terrapins fresh off three straight losses, including two in a row ATS. I think it's Maryland that's much better-positioned to rebound on Thursday. The Wolverines matador-like defense just isn't cutting it. Michigan has allowed a boatload of scoring opportunities on a seemingly every game basis and its opposition has made the most of those opportunities, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. The Terps offense went cold over the last couple of games but that was to be expected against the likes of Purdue and Minnesota. Here, taking a step down in class should benefit the Terps. Maryland does possess a defense as well, having held five straight opponents to fewer than 26 made field goals and an impressive eight straight foes to 26 or less. The home team has owned this series lately, taking five straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Maryland (10*). |
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01-10-24 | Colorado -5 v. California | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11 pm et on Wednesday. Colorado is coming off a disappointing trip through Arizona last weekend as it dropped games against the Wildcats and Sun Devils. I expect it to bounce back here, however, as it heads to Berkeley to take on the Bears who are in a prime letdown spot off an upset win over rival UCLA last Saturday. That win over the Bruins had more to do with UCLA having an off night than anything else. The Bruins couldn't get anything going, knocking down just 21-of-49 field goal attempts in the loss. The Bears offense remained sluggish and ranks 113th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Colorado sits 33rd in the country in that department. The Buffaloes are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games after giving up 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 lined home games. Take Colorado (8*). |
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01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Canisius v. Rider OVER 147 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-24 | California v. UCLA -6 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Saturday. UCLA is reeling right now having lost two straight and six of its last seven games overall. A home date against California should be just what it needs to right the ship, however. Note that the Bruins have taken 11 straight meetings against the Bears with eight of those wins coming by double-digit margins. Cal is off to an 0-3 start in Pac-12 play and has dropped the cash in five straight games overall. The Bears sit a middling 154th in KenPom's national rankings - 63 spots south of UCLA. The Bruins actually check in having held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. I believe their offensive woes can be fixed and it's worth noting that Cal has allowed opponents to stuff boxscores, allowing four of its last six foes to knock down more than 30 field goals. The Bears are just 9-12 ATS in their last 21 games following three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, UCLA is 22-16 ATS in its last 38 contests after being held to 55 points or less. Take UCLA (8*). |
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01-06-24 | Oregon State v. Washington -12.5 | Top | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Huskies are surprisingly at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings sporting an 0-3 record in early conference action. Keep in mind, this is a team that upset Gonzaga earlier this season and ranks just outside the top-50 in the country according to KenPom. Not only that but the Huskies are battle-tested having faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (also according to KenPom). They let Oregon off the hook two nights ago, jumping out in front by a wide margin early before settling for a halftime lead but then folding in the final 20 minutes. Of course, Oregon is no pushover. Here, Washington should benefit from facing an Oregon State squad that figures to eventually reside near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. The Beavers currently rank 159th in KenPom's national rankings and have only faced the 146th toughest slate of opponents. The home team has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Note that Oregon State is just 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Washington is an exceptional 18-5 ATS in its last 23 contests following a loss against a conference foe. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-05-24 | Niagara -1 v. Manhattan | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. The Purple Eagles are off to an 0-2 start in MAAC play but they draw a favorable matchup on the road against Manhattan on Friday. Note that Niagara is coming off an upset win at Buffalo last time out. It should be able to take advantage of a Jaspers squad that has seen the opposition 'fill it up' this season and particularly of late. Manhattan has given up 36, 34, 31, 25, 28, 29 and 26 made field goals over its last seven games. Even in the game where it allowed just 25 made field goals it still suffered a double-digit loss on the road against MAAC foe Marist. Niagara is 21-18 ATS in its last 39 road games as a favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Manhattan is just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 lined home contests. Take Niagara (10*). |
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01-04-24 | Oregon State v. Washington State -11 | 58-65 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Oregon State at 11 pm et on Thursday. This is a straightforward fade of Oregon State after it stunned USC by a score of 86-70 last Saturday. Meanwhile, Washington State should come out on fire after dropping both road tilts in Pac-12 play last weekend, at Utah and Colorado. That was certainly a tough two-game road trip but the Cougars would have liked to have at least stolen one. Note that Washington State still ranks 98 spots north of Oregon State according to KenPom this season, with both teams facing almost an identical level of opposition (in terms of strength of schedule). Note that Oregon State has gone 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit victory. Take Washington State (8*). |
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01-04-24 | Oregon v. Washington -3.5 | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Huskies will look to flip the script on the Ducks on Thursday after getting off to an 0-2 start in Pac-12 play with consecutive tight losses against two tough teams in Colorado and Utah, on the road no less, last weekend. Oregon outlasted USC and UCLA in a pair of tightly-contested matchups of its own last weekend to jump out to a perfect 2-0 start in conference play. Note that Washington still ranks five spots clear of Oregon in KenPom's national rankings. The Huskies are battle-tested to be sure having faced the 16th toughest schedule in the country so far this season. While the Ducks do have some quality wins on their resume, they've only gone up against the 110th most difficult slate of opponents. Take Washington (8*). |
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01-03-24 | Stanford v. UCLA -3.5 | 59-53 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Wednesday. UCLA returns home following an unsurprising 1-1 (2-0 ATS) trip through Oregon last weekend. Meanwhile, Stanford is in a prime letdown spot following a stunning blowout victory over Arizona last time out. The win actually snapped a two-game slide for the Cardinal, including a home loss against Arizona State in Pac-12 play. While Stanford's middling 6-6 start to the campaign is somewhat expected, UCLA can't feel good about its 6-7 mark - even if it did play well last weekend in Oregon. Of note, the Bruins have faced the 79th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (according to KenPom) while Stanford has gone against the 107th toughest slate of opponents. I expect UCLA to use this as a springboard game before hosting another winnable game against Cal on Saturday. Take UCLA (8*). |
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01-03-24 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Missouri State | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Missouri State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The Panthers have been working their way toward the return of conference play since dropping their first two Missouri Valley Conference matchups back in late November-early December. Since suffering an outright loss as a favorite at Evansville on December 2nd Northern Iowa has gone 4-1 SU and ATS. I don't expect any sort of letdown here, however. It's a different story for Missouri State, which is off to an impressive start to the campaign and most recently upset perennial NCAA Tournament team St. Mary's (CA), on the road no less, just before Christmas. Note that the road team has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this particular series, including a 69-66 Panthers victory on this floor last February. Northern Iowa checks in a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive ATS victories and 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road contests following back-to-back wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Missouri State is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games after winning two of its last three contests. Take Northern Iowa (8*). |
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12-31-23 | Washington State v. Colorado OVER 144.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado at 2 pm et on Sunday. As long as Washington State keeps playing at the pace it has, the points will come. The Cougars have hoisted up 64 or more field goals attempts in five of their last nine games and figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against Colorado on Sunday as well. The Buffaloes allowed Washington to get off 65 field goal attempts in Friday's narrow victory - the Huskies simply had an off shooting night. In that vein, the Buffaloes didn't shoot particularly well either but should rebound here. Washington State has gotten progressively worse defensively, most recently allowing Utah to connect on 29-of-61 field goal opportunities in Friday's 80-58 loss. Take the over (8*). |
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12-30-23 | USC -8 v. Oregon State | 70-86 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Oregon State at 10 pm et on Saturday. It took about a half but USC did eventually wake up and start playing Trojans basketball against Oregon on Thursday. Unfortunately for them it was too little too late as they dropped an 82-74 decision. I look for the Trojans to bounce back on Saturday as they stay in the Pacific Northwest to take on Oregon State. The Beavers got off to a strong start against UCLA on Thursday but couldn't keep it up in the second half, allowing a whopping 45 points against the Bruins in the game's final 20 minutes on their way to a 69-62 loss. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for Oregon State. Keep in mind, the Beavers hadn't really played all that tough of a schedule prior to the start of Pac-12 play, falling by margin in their only step-up games. I suspect it's going to take some time for Oregon State to settle into a rhythm and ultimately offer some line value here in Pac-12 play. Take USC (8*). |
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12-29-23 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 155 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-23 | USC v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. USC snapped a three-game losing streak with a 20-point rout of Alabama State last time out but it should find the going much tougher on Thursday as it opens Pac-12 play with a showdown against Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks rebounded from a 20-point beatdown at the hands of Syracuse by defeating Kent State 84-70 prior to the break. Oregon is now 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five contests. I like the Ducks chances of going off offensively in this one as USC's opponents have been stuffing the boxscores, knocking down 24 or more field goals in nine of 11 games to date. Oregon doesn't mind pushing the pace having hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in eight of its 11 contests so far this season. Take Oregon (10*). |
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12-20-23 | Jackson State v. Gonzaga -26 | 76-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Jackson State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Gonzaga is coming off a disappointing double-digit loss against an elite Connecticut squad last time out. As the Bulldogs return to the court on Wednesday, I can't help but feel its opponent Jackson State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Note that as of Tuesday, Jackson State ranks 255th out of 362 teams nationally according to KenPom. Gonzaga, despite the lopsided defeat against UConn, still checks in a respectable 18th. Note that the Bulldogs are 90-61 ATS in their last 151 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here. Jackson State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season having yet to play a home game. It has faced the 41st most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom and while it has hung tough for the most part, I think it's in a tough spot here given Gonzaga can empty the tank knowing it won't take the floor again until December 29th. Take Gonzaga (8*). |
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12-16-23 | Portland +10.5 v. Grand Canyon | 63-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Grand Canyon at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Weāll simply fade Grand Canyon as it comes off consecutive outright underdog victories and now lays double-digits against Portland on Saturday. Note that the last time we saw the Antelopes favored they failed to cover the spread at home against Texas-Arlington. Portland is no pushover at 6-5 on the season and fresh off a āget rightā road win over North Dakota. Take Portland (8*). |
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12-15-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +5.5 | Top | 76-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga plus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday. Needless to say, Gonzaga has had this rematch circled on its calendar after falling by an 82-54 score against Connecticut last March. The Bulldogs get this game in their own backyard at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and with an upset loss against in-state rival Washington last Saturday fresh in their minds, I look for them to make a statement here. While Connecticut does rank an impressive fourth in the country according to KenPom, it has also faced only the 321st most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). Gonzaga ranks 11th in the country, taking a hit following last week's defeat against Washington. Note that the Bulldogs have gone up against the 86th toughest slate of opponents this season. Gonzaga is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a home win but non-cover, as is the case here. UConn on the other hand is just 30-34 ATS in its last 64 contests following a victory by 30 or more points, which is also the situation on Friday. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Tenn-Martin v. NC State -19.5 | 67-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Tennessee-Martin at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Wolfpack have righted the ship with back-to-back wins (and covers) against Boston College and Maryland-Eastern Shore following a three-game ATS slide in late November. I look for the Wolfpack to continue their ascension leading up to a big showdown with Tennessee on Saturday. N.C. State has climbed to 70th in the KenPom national rankings on the strength of consecutive strong offensive showings. I expect the Wolfpack to lay waste to one of the worst defensive teams in the country on Tuesday, noting Tennessee-Martin ranks 321st in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that Tennessee-Martin is a long-term 44-73 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Michigan +4 v. Iowa | 90-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan plus the points over Iowa at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Wolverines are stacking up losses right now, fresh off three straight defeats including a stunner at home against Big Ten rival Indiana earlier this week. It's been a similar story for Iowa as it has dropped consecutive games and checks in 1-5 ATS over its last six contests. The difference is, while the Wolverines have at least been competitive in all but one of their five losses this season, the Hawkeyes have had their doors blown off on three occasions, including in each of their last two contests against Purdue and rival Iowa State. Iowa has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over Michigan since reeling off five consecutive wins over the Wolverines from 2014 to 2017. Note that Michigan is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 road games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here. Take Michigan (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Indiana v. Auburn -6 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Indiana at 2 pm et on Saturday. Indiana picked up a massive win on the road against Michigan last time out. I expect the Hoosiers to fall flat on Saturday, however, as they stay on the road to face SEC foe Auburn. The Tigers will be in a foul mood after dropping a 69-64 decision as 7.5-point favorites on the road against Appalachian State on Sunday. Prior to that, Auburn had reeled off five straight victories, including three ATS wins in its last four games. Indiana has delivered three consecutive ATS wins following an 0-4-1 ATS start. Note that this is only the third time this season the Hoosiers have been in an underdog role. I don't expect them to catch Auburn flat-footed the way they did against Michigan. Note that Indiana is a long-term 60-92 ATS in its last 152 road games following consecutive ATS victories. Take Auburn (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Pittsburgh -3.5 v. West Virginia | 80-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Pitt should be fuming off consecutive home losses against Missouri and Clemson. While those were two tough games, you have to imagine the Panthers figured they could at least earn a split (or better). That wasn't the case so now they hit the road looking to get back on track against West Virginia on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are in a bit of a reset year with no returning starters from last year's team. It's a much different story for Pitt, which has been slowly rebuilding under head coach Jeff Capel and last season went 24-12, eventually bowing out as an 11-seed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia is off to a 3-4 start in the first year of the post-Bob Huggins era under the guidance of new head coach Josh Eilert. After eking out a win over Bellarmine (by four points), the Mountaineers fell by six against St. John's last time out as their four-game homestand continued. This is a matchup the Panthers have likely had circled after dropping an ugly 81-56 decision at home against West Virginia last season. The Mountaineers were road favorites in that game but the shoe is on the other foot this time around and I expect to see a different result. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-05-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -7 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Indiana is probably feeling pretty good about itself following three straight wins, including an impressive double-digit win and cover at home against Maryland last Friday. I think the Hoosiers will get caught in a letdown on Tuesday, however, as they run into a Michigan squad desperate for a win off back-to-back losses against Texas Tech and Oregon. While the Wolverines are 1-4 over their last five games, only the loss to Long Beach State (a good team in its own right) was truly disappointing. The other four games over that stretch all saw closing lines of fewer than three points - in other words, they all could have gone either way. Looking at the positives, Michigan did score a whopping 83 points on the road against a good Oregon team last time out. KenPom still has the Wolverines ranked 20 spots higher than the Hoosiers at 49th in the country. With a tough road game against Iowa on deck, this is the spot for the Wolverines to turn it around. Note that Indiana is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 lined road games and a long-term 41-66 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Michigan, meanwhile, is a long-term 55-35 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less, which is also the situation here. Take Michigan (10*). |
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12-05-23 | George Mason v. Tennessee -15 | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over George Mason at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. George Mason is a good team but it is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in Knoxville on Tuesday. The Volunteers are coming off three straight losses including a disappointing 100-92 defeat on the road against North Carolina last Wednesday. Having had nearly a week off to stew on that poor performance, I look for a massive response from the Vols here. Remember, Tennessee was a perfect 4-0 at one point with quality wins over Wisconsin and Syracuse and a near-miss against Purdue. George Mason hasn't really played anyone yet and will be taking a big step up in class following Saturday's win on the road against Toledo. Note that Tennessee is a long-term 95-69 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS defeats, as is the case here. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Clemson at 2 pm et on Sunday. Clemson is ripe for a letdown on Sunday following its big upset win on the road against Alabama back on Tuesday. The Tigers took advantage of a struggling Crimson Tide defense in that contest but shouldn't be so fortunate on Sunday as they stay on the road to face a Pitt defense that ranks 46th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Panthers offense was a no-show against Missouri last time out, perhaps dealing with a letdown of their own following a blowout win over Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Pitt bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-02-23 | USC v. Gonzaga -3.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Gonzaga as it looks to show out in front of the Vegas crowd against USC on Saturday. The Bulldogs have actually dropped the cash in consecutive games but I like the bounce-back spot in that regard here. USC hasn't been anything special this season, splitting its step-up games against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Gonzaga is a true national title contender once again this season in my opinion but I don't think we've seen its best effort just yet. Note that the Bulldogs are 8-1 when coming off a home game in which they won SU but failed to cover ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 25.7 points in that situation. Take Gonzaga (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Washington +4.5 v. Colorado State | 81-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. It would be difficult for the Washington basketball team not to gain some inspiration from the Huskies football team, which won the final Pac-12 Championship with a thrilling upset victory over Oregon, right here in Las Vegas, last night. On Saturday, the Huskies will look to stage an upset of their own on the hardwood as they take on undefeated Colorado State in this neutral court affair. I like Washington's chances of overwhelming the Rams with its up-tempo style, currently ranked 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Huskies have plenty of room to grow as they currently sit 58th in the nation in terms of KenPom's overall rankings. Colorado State, off to a perfect start to the campaign as I mentioned, is likely in line for some regression, currently ranked a lofty 22nd in the country, also according to KenPom. Take Washington (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Boston College +2 v. Vanderbilt | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Vanderbilt at 9:15 pm et on Wednesday. This line doesn't add up as Boston College heads out on the road to face Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Eagles have actually faced the considerably more difficult schedule to this point this season - 157th toughest in the nation according to KenPom compared to Vandy's 298th ranking in that department. Yet Boston College has knocked down five more field goals per game (on the same number of additional field goal attempts) while holding the opposition to one less made field goal on one fewer attempt per contest. Take Boston College (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bradley minus the points over Murray State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I like Bradley as it heads out on the Missouri Valley Conference road to face Murray State on Wednesday. The Braves have faced the considerably tougher schedule this season according to KenPom - 122nd most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Racers have faced just the 259th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Bradley has connected on just two fewer field goals per game on five fewer field goal attempts while holding opponents to five fewer made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts allowed. Take Bradley (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over North Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Wednesday. It's early in the season but this is a big spot for the Volunteers as they check in off consecutive losses against Purdue and Kansas in Hawaii. Tennessee has had a full week off to stew on that most recent defeat at the hands of the Jayhawks and I like the way the Vols match up against the Tar Heels on Wednesday. North Carolina has pushed the pace and shot reasonably well, knocking down 28 or more field goals in five of six games so far this season. Here, they'll run into the nation's top-ranked team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in Tennessee. While the Vols have gone up against the 15th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season, the Tar Heels have faced the 127th. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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11-29-23 | American v. Harvard -8.5 | 75-80 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Harvard minus the points over American at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands here as Harvard hosts American U on Wednesday. American has faced only the 330th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom. Compare that with Harvard, which has gone up against the 87th toughest slate of opponents. Despite that, the Crimson have averaged two more made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts per game. On seven fewer three-point attempts per contest the Crimson have knocked down just two fewer three-point field goals. Defensively, Harvard has yielded two fewer made field goals per game on seven more field goal attempts per contest. The Crimson roll on Wednesday. Take Harvard (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Gardner-Webb -1.5 v. Queens NC | 80-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gardner-Webb minus the points over Queens at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Gardner-Webb has quietly faced the 11th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Queens has gone up against the 208th toughest slate of opponents. With that said, both teams check in sporting identical 3-4 records. All records aren't created equal though. Gardner-Webb has made good on two more field goals on one fewer field goal attempt per game than Queens while holding the opposition to seven fewer made field goals per contest. Queens has yielded those seven additional made field goals per game on only eight additional field goal attempts. Take Gardner-Webb (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Buffalo v. James Madison -21 | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This game has rout written all over it as James Madison hosts Buffalo on Wednesday. The Bulls have faced just the 258th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom yet they've gone a miserable 1-5 through six games. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone up against the 118th toughest slate of opponents and check in a perfect 6-0. The Dukes are averaging a whopping nine more made field goals per game compared to the Bulls, on just 11 additional field goal attempts per contest. Defensively, JMU has allowed four fewer made field goals per game on two additional attmepts. Take James Madison (8*). |
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11-29-23 | VMI +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on VMI plus the points over Navy at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the underdog Keydets as they face Navy on Wednesday. VMI checks in just 2-5 on the season but it has faced a fairly difficult schedule - the 110th toughest in the nation according to KenPom. Navy is 0-4 yet has faced only the 250th most difficult schedule by the same metrics. Note that the Keydets are averaging a whopping 10 more made field goals per game than the Midshipmen, despite getting off just six additional field goal attempts. From three-point range, VMI is knocking down two more shots while attempting just one more than Navy. It's a similar story defensively. VMI has held opponents to just 25 made field goals per game - just one more than Navy despite allowing nine additional field goal attempts per contest. VMI took this matchup by eight points as an 11-point home favorite last season. That 'revenge' angle is a big reason why Navy is installed as a considerable favorite at home on Wednesday. I believe the Midshipmen are laying too many points. Take VMI (10*). |
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11-28-23 | NC State +1.5 v. Ole Miss | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Ole Miss at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Even as they come off consecutive ATS losses including their first SU defeat of the season against BYU last time out, I'm high on this Wolfpack squad and like their chances of handing Ole Miss its first loss of the campaign on Tuesday. Ole Miss is off to a perfect 5-0 start to head coach Chris Beard's tenure yet it checks in winless ATS at 0-5. The Rebels rank 33rd in the country in luck rating according to KenPom, meaning they're undoubtedly not quite as good as their flawless record indicates. In fact, KenPom has the Rebels 73 spots behind N.C. State in the overall rankings. Home court does matter and this will be N.C. State's first true road game of the season. However, we'll note that Ole Miss is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a victory and 7-17 ATS in its last 24 lined home games when listed as a favorite. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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11-23-23 | NC State -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Vanderbilt at 10 pm et on Thursday. N.C. State hasn't really played anyone yet so it's tough to get a great gauge on just how good the Wolfpack are. I expect Kevin Keatts' crew to relish the opportunity to face a 'name' opponent from the SEC in Las Vegas on Thursday. Vanderbilt hasn't accomplished much since Jerry Stackhouse took over as head coach in 2019. While the Commodores enter this game off three straight victories, don't forget they opened their season with an outright loss as 16-point favorites against Presbyterian. Vandy's opponents have been stuffing the stat sheet as it has allowed 25, 24, 29 and 28 made field goals despite holding three of four opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Wolfpack appear to be in midseason form offensively, knocking down 29, 29 and 32 field goals in their first three contests. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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11-22-23 | Tennessee v. Kansas -1 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Tennessee at 2:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Volunteers gave the Boilermakers their best punch last night but ultimately fell just short. Now they have to get right back up for Bill Self's Jayhawks, who are likely to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by Marquette last night. I thought the Vols guards matched up better against the Boilers last night than they do against the Jayhawks here. Given they fell short in that contest, I have a tough time envisioning them handing Kansas its second straight upset defeat on Wednesday. Take Kansas (8*). |
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11-21-23 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Purdue at 8 pm et on Tuesday. In a game with a relatively low posted total where points should come at a premium, I'll gladly gran all the points I can get with the underdog Volunteers. Note that Tennessee checks in ranked number one in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Vols have the experienced guard play to ultimately wear out Matt Painter's Boilermakers, who are coming off a massive statement win over Gonzaga yesterday. Purdue didn't lose its first game last season until early January. I expect the Vols to give the Boilers a run here though, noting that Tennessee is 145-107 ATS in its last 252 games as an underdog. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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11-20-23 | Florida State v. UNLV +4 | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Florida State at 5:30 pm et on Monday. This game will be played in Daytona Beach, Florida, seemingly giving the in-state Seminoles over the Runnin' Rebels, who will be travelling across the country. That's been factored into the line, however, and I like UNLV to give Florida State all it can handle on Monday. The Rebels got off to a rough start to the campaign as they were upset by Southern University as 20-point favorites in their opener. Since the, they've bounced back by reeling off consecutive victories both SU and ATS. UNLV has posted consecutive winning seasons under head coach Kevin Kruger and they're poised for another positive campaign in 23-24. Florida State is coming off a disastrous 22-23 campaign, going 9-23. While they got off to a strong start against weak opposition this season, their first 'step up in class' game resulted in a 21-point rout at the hands of rival Florida. Safe to say the 'Noles aren't 'back' just yet and I look for them to stumble again on Monday. Take UNLV (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Cornell +3.5 v. George Mason | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cornell plus the points over George Mason at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. While George Mason is in what figures to be a rebuilding year under first-year head coach Tony Skinn, Cornell has its best team in a number of years following consecutive winning seasons under head coach Brian Earl. Both teams check into Wednesday's sneaky-good matchup with perfect records although Cornell does have an extra game under its belt. George Mason has yet to really be tested having faced the 306th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season. The Patriots will have a tough time adapting to the Big Red's fluid, up-tempo attack on Wednesday. Look for Cornell's offense to prove to be too much. Take Cornell (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Kentucky +6 v. Kansas | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Kansas at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas has looked every bit deserving of the number one seed so far this season but we're only two games in and blowout victories over N.C. Central and Manhattan, at home no less, were to be expected. Here, the Jayhawks will face their first real test against John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats and I look for them to have their hands full. The Wildcats are 2-0 but are coming off an ATS loss in a 20-point win over Texas A&M-Commerce. I saw all I needed to know that Kentucky's ceiling is sky-high this season in an 86-46 dismantling of a good New Mexico State team in its season-opener. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series and the 'revenge' angle has worked over the last several years with neither side managing consecutive wins since Kansas accomplished that feat in 16-17 into 17-18. Take Kentucky (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Duke v. Michigan State OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Michigan State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While I do like Duke to bounce back from Friday's home loss against Arizona, I don't think the oddsmakers have its backers any favors by installing them as two-possession favorites against Michigan State at the United Center on Tuesday. Michigan State enters with perhaps just as big of a chip on its shoulder after it dropped a stunning home-opening loss to James Madison (before bouncing back with a blowout victory over Southern Indiana). Regardless, I expect both teams to go flat out in an effort to re-establish themselves in the national rankings (the Blue Devils fell from second to ninth while the Spartans tumbled from fourth all the way to 18th). Note that Michigan State has allowed each of its first two opponents to get out and run with both hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Duke won't shy away from pushing the pace here as it has attempted 59 and 65 field goals through two contests. You only have to go back to the 2022 NCAA Tournament to find the last time these storied programs met and the result was an 85-76 Duke victory. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-23 | Texas Southern v. Arizona State -14.5 | 52-63 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas Southern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Southern stunned Arizona State as an 11-point home underdog in last year's matchup. I look for the Sun Devils to exact their revenge on Saturday afternoon in Tempe. Note that Arizona State opened the 23-24 campaign with a 71-56 loss against a good Mississippi State team. The Sun Devils showed plenty of rust offensively in that game as they knocked down only 17-of-53 field goal attempts. This matchup should provide Arizona State with ample opportunity to bounce back, noting that Texas Southern allowed New Mexico to connect on 30-of-67 field goal attempts in its season-opening 92-55 loss. Note that Texas Southern is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Arizona v. Duke OVER 153.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. While the betting majority will likely be on this play with us on Friday, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I simply feel this game will resemble a pro-style contest with the Wildcats and Blue Devils vying to remain perfect on the young campaign. Duke probably doesn't want to get involved in a track meet with Arizona but I'm not sure it will have a choice in the matter, even at home. The Wildcats will run, run and run some more and it's just too early in the season for the Blue Devils to truly have their wits about them defensively. On the flip side, Duke is favored for a reason in this contest and it will undoubtedly hold its own offensively against what projects to be an average Arizona defense (its first opponent of the season Morgan State turned the basketball over 25 times and made good on only 22 field goals yet still put up 59 points). Take the over (8*). |
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11-07-23 | Northern Iowa v. North Texas UNDER 129.5 | 77-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Iowa and North Texas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. No team played slower than North Texas last season as it ranked 363rd out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo but that was by design as it also finished 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency, riding that hard-nosed defensive style to a NIT championship. While Ross Hodge is the new head coach, nothing is likely to change as Hodge has been running the Mean Green Eagles defense for a number of years. All indications are that his players have bought in during practices and I don't anticipate North Texas missing a beat defensively out of the gate this season. Northern Iowa returns its top five scorers from last season under long-time head coach Ben Jacobson. The Panthers have been a middling bunch in terms of pace under Jacobson but there's been a renewed focus on playing good defensive basketball entering the 23-24 campaign. āWe were awful last year defensively,ā Jacobson said in late October. āWeāve spent a lot of time working (on that). So we have got a defensive team we can count on.ā I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UABĀ OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-23 | Arkansas v. Connecticut OVER 139.5 | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday. As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Miami-FL v. Indiana OVER 145 | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Indiana at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams saw their first round games stay 'under' the total and we won with the 'under' in Indiana's double-digit victory over Kent State. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Hoosiers take on Miami in the second round on Sunday. It's unlikely the Hurricanes will shoot as poorly as they did in their tournament opener. They knocked down only 17-of-56 field goal attempts in a come-from-behind win over Drake. They had a much larger margin for error against the Missouri Valley Conference champs than they will against Indiana on Sunday. Keep in mind, Miami does still rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and prior to Friday's contest had made good on 25 or more field goals in an incredible 13 straight games. Indiana certainly checks all the boxes defensively, but I'm not about to consider it elite in that department, sitting 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You would have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Hoosiers held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. On the clip side, Indiana is one of the hottest offensive teams in the tournament having made good on 31, 25, 28, 27, 31 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Miami isn't stopping anyone, ranking 114th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Prior to Friday's game, the Hurricanes had allowed 27 or more made field goals in eight straight contests. I realize that this court in Albany has been a nightmare for shooters as a whole but that didn't stop UConn and Iona from combining to score 150 points so I do believe a high-scoring result is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Marquette at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Marquette put on a shooting clinic in its double-digit win and cover against Vermont in the opening round. That marked its third straight ATS victory. Note that the Golden Eagles have reeled off four or more consecutive ATS wins on two previous occasions this season but to keep those streaks intact beyond three in a row they faced a pair of disappointing teams in Georgetown and Villanova. This time around they'll be up against Michigan State, which is essentially playing with 'house money', dancing on to the second round as a double-digit loss team but having faced the sixth most difficult schedule in the country this season (according to KenPom). In stark contrast, Marquette has faced the 42nd toughest slate of opponents this season, including 196th in non-conference play. Firmly planted in uncharted territory having won a season-high 10 consecutive games (its previous longest win streak was five), we'll fade the Golden Eagles here. Take Michigan State (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Auburn at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Regardless whether Houston star guard Marcus Sasser is able to play or how much he can contribute, I like the way this matchup sets up for the Cougars. Auburn exploded for 51 points in the second half in its opening round victory over Iowa. Keep in mind, that was just the Tigers fifth win since January 25th. They haven't posted consecutive victories since a five-game winning streak fro January 7th to 21st. I don't like the Auburn defense here, noting that it has allowed 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. The Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country but I look for the Tigers to do all they can to speed them up here and I think that actually may end up working against them. Houston certainly didn't show it in its tournament opener but it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard when necessary. Note that the Cougars have knocked down at least 25 field goals in six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in five straight games but that's by far their longest such streak of the season (prior to it they had been held under 70 in only six of 30 contests). With or without Sasser, I look for the Cougars to outpace the Tigers here. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Duke at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. Duke has reeled off five straight ATS victories including a blowout win over Oral Roberts in the opening round of this tournament on Thursday. Long pointspread win streaks aren't commonplace for teams as high-profile as the Blue Devils and I can't help but feel it's leaving them overvalued as a considerable favorite against Tennessee on Saturday. Note that prior to its current streak, the Blue Devils season-long ATS run had lasted only two games and that happened just once - way back in the first two games of the regular season. Here, I anticipate Duke getting stymied by a tremendous Tennessee defense that checks in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Vols actually sit 10 spots ahead of the Blue Devils in KenPom's overall rankings. While Duke has impressed, it is just one game removed from a sub-20 field goal performance against Virginia (in the ACC Championship Game). In stark contrast, the Vols have knocked down more than 20 field goals in 11 straight games - that despite playing at only the 276th fastest tempo in the country (again according to KenPom). In what projects as a low-scoring game, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Vols. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vanderbilt minus the points over Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Michigan in its NIT opener against Toledo but it faces a much more difficult challenge as it heads on the road to take on Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Commodores are a red hot 10-2 SU and ATS over their last 12 games and unlike the Wolverines, I think Vandy is content to be in the NIT, rather than feeling snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee. Michigan has struggled away from home all season, going 5-11 while being outscored by an average margin of 1.2 points on average. Meanwhile, Vandy is 13-5 in Nashville, outscoring the opposition by 4.8 points on average. With the Wolverines giving up far too many scoring opportunities (they've allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in five straight games) I look for the Commodores to roll here. Take Vanderbilt (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Kent State v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Indiana at 9:55 pm et on Friday. Kent State enters the NCAA Tournament sporting a 12-20 o/u record in lined games this season but was involved in consecutive high-scoring affairs in the MAC Tournament semi-final and championship rounds. I do think the Golden Flashes generally want to slow things down when faced with considerable odds, as is the case here against Indiana. Remember, during their non-conference slate they went up against Houston and Gonzaga, both on the road no less, and held them to just 50 and 55 field goal attempts respectively in a pair of ATS wins. Indiana checks in off a high-scoring contest as well, falling by a 77-73 score against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals. The Hoosiers scored 80 or more points in 13 of their first 21 games this season but have topped out at 79 points over their last 12 contests. Defensively, Indiana probably doesn't get enough credit. It has held 12 of its last 17 opponents to 24 made field goals or fewer. Kent State ranks 111th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, noting that it has only faced the 284th most difficult slate of opponents from a defensive efficiency standpoint (according to KenPom). I noted earlier that the 'over' has cashed in the Golden Flashes last two games. That matches their longest such streak of the season, with the 'under' having cashed in their next game on both previous occasions where they came off back-to-back 'overs'. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over TCU at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors will undoubtedly be down on Pac-12 teams after watching Arizona's stunning loss to Princeton yesterday (the Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament less than a week ago). With that being said, I'll grab all the points I can get with underdog Arizona State here. TCU peaked sometime around mid-January, perhaps more specifically on January 21st when it won by 23 points on the road against Kansas. At that time, the Horned Frogs had just four losses but they've gone on to suffer eight more since. Since a four-game slide in late January, Arizona State has gone 8-5 over its last 13 games, including upset wins over Stanford, Arizona and USC. While the Sun Devils are coming off an incredible 98-point performance against Nevada in their 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday, I've been more impressed by their defense. They've held five straight opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts entering Friday's contest. The Horned Frogs have knocked down more than 20 field goals in five straight games but they've done so on the strength of 59 or more FG attempts in four of those five contests. Defensively, you would have to go back 14 games, all the way to January 24th, to find the last time TCU limited an opponent to fewer than 24 made field goals. I expect this game to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday. I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Utah State -1.5 v. Missouri | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Missouri at 1:40 pm et on Thursday. I love the matchup for Utah State here as it draws what I consider to be an overrated SEC squad in Missouri that has certainly exceeded expectations this season but isn't well-suited to go on a deep tournament run in my opinion. Many watched the Tigers upset Tennessee last Friday but their SEC Tournament success was short-lived as they were outmatched by Alabama the next day. While Missouri has managed to get hot for stretches offensively, it has also been limited to 23 or fewer made field goals in four of its last eight games. My concern with Missouri lies at the defensive end of the floor where it ranks 179th in the nation in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and will have to deal with an experienced, multi-pronged Utah State offense that checks in 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite quietly having faced the 58th most difficult schedule. The Aggies fell just short in the Mountain West Championship Game against a terrific San Diego State squad but I'm confident they'll get right back up for this NCAA Tournament opening round matchup. With 7'1" Trevin Dorius in the middle not to mention the imposing duo of Taylor Funk and Sean Bairstow and the glue-guy that holds it all together in hometown boy Steven Ashworth, I believe this Aggies squad has the potential to make some noise this weekend, starting with Thursday's game. Take Utah State (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Furman v. Virginia UNDER 132 | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Furman and Virginia at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. While anything can obviously happen, I believe there's a good chance this game ends up being akin to watching paint dry, yet here we are being offered a total in the 130's. Furman does play at a reasonably fast pace, ranked 124th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Of course, the Paladins haven't had to play all that methodically having faced the 271st most difficult schedule in the nation. The open looks have been there for the most part throughout the campaign and Furman has taken full advantage. Here, however, they'll be taking a big step up in class against one of the best defensive teams in the nation in Virginia. If Furman is to have any shot at pulling the upset here (as many seem to feel it can), it will need to use its excellent ball movement and patience at the offensive end of the floor to break down the Cavaliers. On the flip side, few teams have been able to speed up Virginia this season, and Furman doesn't figure to be able to (or have any interest in) doing so on Thursday. The Cavaliers rank 360th out of 363 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season not to mention 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. We certainly saw them lock in during the ACC Tournament, holding all three of their opponents to exactly 19 made field goals. Only one of their last 10 opponents has managed to get off more than 53 field goal attempts and that was Clemson in a game that totalled only 121 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Arizona State v. Nevada OVER 133.5 | Top | 98-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*). |
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03-14-23 | Toledo v. Michigan -6 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Bettors seem eager to fade Michigan in its NIT opener, probably feeling that it will be disinterested after getting 'snubbed' by the NCAA Tournament committee. This Wolverines team wasn't likely to go deep in the NCAA Tournament anyway, and I think the players know that. A high ranking in the NIT does give the Wolverines and opportunity to keep playing and building for next season (keep in mind Michigan returned only one starter this season). I like the draw here in the opening matchup. Toledo doesn't play a lick of defense. The Rockets rank a woeful 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the 213th most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). Yes, Toledo can score, or it could against MAC foes anyway. The Rockets only faced the 199th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (and didn't go against a single opponent from the Power-5 conferences) so it's difficult to gauge how they'll fare in this step-up spot. On the heels of three straight losses, I think we see Michigan's best effort here as I'm willing to bet on head coach Juwan Howard's ability to get his players up for this NIT opener. Note that while Toledo has only lost seven games this season, each of those seven defeats came by at least seven points and five of them came by double-digit margins. Take Michigan (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4 | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's payback time as the Crimson Tide look to avenge last week's 67-61 loss at Texas A&M with much higher stakes in Sunday's SEC Championship Game. I'm not convinced the Aggies can afford themselves enough scoring opportunities to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that in last week's victory over the Tide, the Aggies actually knocked down only 18 field goals. The difference was their 28 trips to the free throw line (they made 27 of those attempts). Alabama had an off shooting day, including a woeful 7-of-36 from beyond the arc. Don't count on lightning striking twice here. While the Tide are known for their offensive prowess, their defense has been even better. In fact, Alabama checks in ranked third in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. That's not to mention the fact that they play at the country's fourth fastest tempo (also according to KenPom). Look for 'Bama to overwhelm Texas A&M in all facets on Sunday. Take Alabama (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Princeton v. Yale UNDER 140.5 | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Yale at 12 noon et on Sunday. It's not easy to speed up this Yale team. Cornell found that out yesterday as the Bulldogs slowed things down a number of times when the pace was getting frenetic and perhaps starting to favor the Big Red. While Yale ultimately scored 80 points in the win, that had more to do with Cornell's defensive inefficiency than anything else (not to mention the fact that Yale knocked down 10 threes - it averages only seven per game on the season). Yale ranks 232nd in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and I'm confident we'll see it employ a 'grind-it-out' style again on Sunday against Princeton, which is coming off a 77-70 win over Penn yesterday. The Tigers are a middle of the road team when it comes to pace. I do think it would be in their best interest to 'ugly it up' a little bit in this one after dropping both regular season meetings with Yale, allowing 87 and 93 points in the process. While both of those contests went 'over' the total, we haven't seen three straight meetings in this series go 'over' since 2017-18. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Grand Canyon v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Utah over Grand Canyon at 11:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams pulled off minor upsets in the semi-final round of the WAC Tournament yesterday. I'll back the revenge-minded Thunderbirds of Southern Utah on Saturday as they look to get back at the Antelopes after dropping an 83-78 decision in the two teams' last matchup just over a week ago. This game features a true contrast in styles as Southern Utah looks to push the pace at every opportunity, ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. By the same metric, Grand Canyon sits 291st. While that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Antelopes, they haven't really been able to impose their will on any of their opponents this month, save for perhaps lowly Utah Tech in a double-digit win on March 3rd. Since that defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, we've seen Southern Utah knock down 29, 27 and 30 field goals in notching three straight victories. Interestingly, it's not the Thunderbirds that have been more vulnerable defensively, despite playing at such a fast pace. The Antelopes actually rank a disappointing 210th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Southern Utah checks in 149th despite facing a marginally tougher schedule. I simply feel that last week's result between these two teams is weighing far too heavily given how little most have paid attention to the WAC in general this season. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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03-11-23 | Texas v. Kansas -1 | 76-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Texas at 6 pm et on Saturday. There's very little separating these two Big 12 rivals and it's fitting that they'll meet in Saturday's Conference Championship Game. In fact, there's less than a point between the two teams according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin metric with only one spot separating them in the overall rankings. I simply feel that the Jayhawks are the superior defensive team and the fact is they've faced the toughest schedule in the entire country this season (also according to KenPom). We actually won with Texas in this same matchup last Saturday as the Longhorns exacted their revenge for an earlier loss to Kansas this season. That game was played in Austin. This one takes place in Kansas City. I expect the Jayhawks to roll. Take Kansas (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 157.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Missouri and Alabama at 1 pm et on Saturday. Alabama enters this contest off consecutive 'under' results and I'm confident we'll see a third straight on Saturday as this total has simply been set too high. Missouri stunned Tennessee on a scorching-hot shooting performance yesterday, notching its fifth straight victory. While the Tigers offense impressed, I'm not sure they'll be interested in trading blows with the Crimson Tide here, noting that Alabama barely broke a sweat in an 85-64 win in the lone regular season meeting. Interestingly, Missouri has found a way to slow down the opposition lately, allowing 56 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight games entering Saturday's affair. Alabama had to lean on its own defense yesterday as its shooting touch just wasn't there against Mississippi State (the Tide knocked down 27-of-67 FG attempts). I'm anticipating a scrappier affair than most in this semi-final showdown on Saturday in Nashville. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Cornell v. Yale OVER 149 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday. These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 154.5 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Arizona at 11:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in one of the best games of the entire college basketball season on February 25th as Arizona State pulled off a stunning 89-88 upset win on a half-court, buzzer-beating heave. It's easy to forget that the first meeting of the season was a rather ho-hum 69-60 Arizona victory. It's notable that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this in-state rivalry go 'over' the total since way back in 2016-17. It may surprise you to find out that Arizona State actually ranks an impressive 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the nation's 44th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While the Sun Devils were unconscious from the field against Arizona on February 25th, we can chalk that up as an anomaly as they've made good on just 21, 19, 23 and 23 field goals in four games since (they connected on 36 in the upset win over the Wildcats). We certainly haven't seen Arizona's best defensive basketball lately as it has allowed 24, 36, 26, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. I do think it catches Arizona State at the right time, however, and it's not as if the Wildcats have been down bad defensively all season as they still rank 55th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (including the 80th toughest slate of non-conference opponents). Take the under (8*). |