Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-03-23 | San Jose State v. Boise State -10 | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Jose State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We'll lay the points with the Broncos as they look to bounce back from consecutive losses (both came on the road) when they host San Jose State on Tuesday. Boise State has lost only four game this season and three of those came away from home. Here in Boise, the Broncos check in 5-1 on the campaign, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 20.4 points. San Jose State rolls in off six straight ATS victories, including three in a row straight-up. All records aren't created equal in college hoops, however, as we note that the Spartans have faced the 194th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Boise State checks in having gone against the 103rd toughest slate of opponents. The Broncos closed as a 22-point favorite in this same matchup last season. While they failed to cover that lofty pointspread, they still won by a comfortable 16-point margin. Take Boise State (8*). |
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01-03-23 | Virginia -5 v. Pittsburgh | 65-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Pittsburgh at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark fading Pittsburgh in its most recent game as it staged a furious second half rally in an eventual upset win over North Carolina. The Panthers have now reeled off nine consecutive ATS wins but I look for that streak to end here against Virginia. The Cavaliers snapped their seven-game ATS skid with an 18-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. Note that Virginia has faced the 54th most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and has certainly held its own going 10-2 SU, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.2 points along the way. Pitt, meanwhile, has faced the country's 140th toughest schedule and while its 7-1 home record is impressive, it is perhaps less so when you consider the victory over North Carolina was the first of note, with it falling by 25 points in its lone previous step-up game at home against West Virginia back in November. Take Virginia (8*). |
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01-03-23 | LSU v. Kentucky -9 | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over LSU at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kentucky enters this contest riding an inexplicable 0-7 ATS skid but the Wildcats are favored by a considerable margin for good reason as they host LSU. The Tigers check in off an outright underdog win at Arkansas, snapping a three-game ATS losing streak of their own. Note that LSU has faced the 328th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Kentucky hasn't exactly faced a grueling slate, it has gone against the 169th toughest set of opponents. Here, we'll note that Kentucky has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.2 points when playing at home after losing consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Kentucky (8*). |
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01-03-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Buffalo as it looks to rebound after suffering losses in three of its last four games. There's really no shame in that slide as the three losses came against Tulane, West Virginia and Michigan State with none of those contests coming at home. Even against Tulane the Bulls were seven-point underdogs. All told, Buffalo has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Ohio has gone against the 196th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Ohio is just 2-5 on the road while Buffalo checks in 4-1 on its home floor. This is undoubtedly a game the Bulls have had circled since dropping last year's matchup against the Bobcats by an ugly 74-53 score as a 2.5-point home favorite. In fact, Ohio has taken the last two meetings between these MAC schools but that's its longest win streak in this series since winning seven in a row over the Bulls from 2011 to 2014. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on St. John's plus the points over Marquette at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Storm got off to a hot start this season but check into this matchup on the heels of three straight losses both SU and ATS. Shooting woes have cost them lately but I look for them to get that straightened out against Marquette on Tuesday. While the Golden Eagles have been terrific this season and check in off consecutive victories, including an outright underdog win at Villanova last time out, it's worth noting that they're still just an even 3-3 on the road (they've suffered only four losses the entire season so that's notable). Meanwhile, St. John's is 8-1 at home and will be eager to erase the memory of an 84-79 loss to Xavier the last time it took the floor here on December 28th. Note that the Red Storm are 20-8 ATS when playing at home after losing six or seven of their last eight games ATS going all the way back to 1997, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points in that spot. Take St. John's (10*). |
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01-02-23 | Rutgers v. Purdue -7 | Top | 65-64 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Rutgers at 7 pm et on Monday. The Boilermakers have been absolutely burning bettors for over a month now, going 0-6-1 ATS over their last seven contests going all the way back to November 30th. I expect that slump to end here, however, as they host seemingly red hot Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS but streaks aren't all created equal. Note that Rutgers has faced the 249th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. That's in stark contrast to Purdue, which has gone against the 128th most difficult slate of opponents. Both teams are coming off consecutive glorified scrimmages against overmatched opponents. Here, I can't help but feel Rutgers is in for a 'shock to its system' after getting off 67 and 75 field goal attempts in its last two games and now facing a Purdue squad that allows just 56 FG attempts per contest here at home this season. Take Purdue (10*). |
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01-01-23 | USC v. Washington State -1 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over USC at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with Washington State in an underdog role on Friday as they fell just a point short of pulling the upset against UCLA. I won't hesitate to come right back with them on Sunday as they stay at home to host USC, which rides a seven-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak, including a double-digit win at Washington on Friday. We'll note again that the Cougars have faced the 20th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. USC has gone against the 128th toughest slate of opponents. Look for Washington State to snap its three-game skid on Sunday. Take Washington State (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Idaho State | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Colorado over Idaho State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Bears as they look to snap their three-game SU and two-game ATS losing streaks on Saturday. Idaho State checks in off consecutive ATS wins, including a 26-point rout of Northern Arizona last time out. Keep in mind, it has faced the 275th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Northern Colorado has gone against the 57th toughest slate of opponents. This is a true 'get right' spot for the Bears but isn't being priced like it at all. Take Northern Colorado (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Long Beach State -2 | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Long Beach State minus the points over Cal-Riverside at 6 pm et on Saturday. We'll back Long Beach State to bounce back here off a tough two-point loss against Cal-San Diego last time out - its second straight ATS defeat. Riverside enters off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS and has faced the slightly tougher schedule this season according to KenPom (seven places higher than LBSU). However, the 49ers have done a considerably better job defensively, allowing just one more made field goal per game on six additional attempts on average. LBSU has also been better offensively, getting off three more field goal attempts per game and making good on all three. Take Long Beach State (8*). |
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12-31-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming +3.5 | Top | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over New Mexico at 4 pm et on Saturday. Wyoming has more than just held its own against New Mexico in recent years, taking three of four meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2020-21 season. Here, the Cowboys will look to hand the Lobos their first loss of the season, and I'm confident they'll do just that on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Note that Wyoming enters this game off three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. None of those games were played at home, where the Cowboys have reeled off consecutive wins (both SU and ATS), scoring more than 90 points on each occasion. New Mexico is a perfect 13-0 SU on the campaign and rides a three-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. However, the Lobos have only faced the 264th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. For comparison's sake, Wyoming has faced the 185th toughest slate of opponents. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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12-31-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota State -4 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over St. Thomas at 3 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded St. Thomas two nights ago as it dropped the cash for the first time in five games in a loss at South Dakota. Here, we'll fade the overvalued side again as it stays on the road to face South Dakota State. Note that St. Thomas checks in having faced the 338th toughest schedule in the nation this season. There's no comparison between these two teams in that regard as South Dakota State has gone against the 21st most difficult slate of opponents this season. You would have to go back five lined games, all the way to December 3rd, to find the last time South Dakota State covered the spread. That changes here. Take South Dakota State (8*). |
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12-31-22 | North Carolina-Asheville v. Winthrop -1.5 | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winthrop minus the points over UNC-Asheville at 2 pm et on Saturday. These two teams check in with opposite records on the campaign but not all records are created equal in college hoops with a large discrepancy in strength of schedule often in place. That's the case here as Asheville has faced the 255th toughest schedule in the country on its way to a 9-5 record while Winthrop has gone 5-9 facing the country's 75th most difficult slate of opponents. Winthrop enters this game riding a four-game losing streak but all four of those setbacks came on the road. Here, it catches UNC-Asheville in a prime letdown spot off a four-point home win (as a -1.5-point favorite) against Radford. We'll lay the short number with the Eagles. Take Winthrop (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Longwood v. Campbell +2 | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Campbell plus the points over Longwood at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade Longwood as it hits the road on the heels of three consecutive ATS victories on Saturday. Note that it has faced the 327th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. Campbell on the other hand has gone against the 262nd most difficult slate of opponents and is in a prime bounce-back spot here off three consecutive losses (two in a row ATS), returning home following an outright loss as a short road favorite at Presbyterian (it lost that game by only four points). Campbell's last two opponents have shot the lights out but that's unlikely here as Longwood as knocked down less than 43% of its field goal attempts in four of its last five games. Take Campbell (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota -2.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota minus the points over Western Illinois at 2 pm et on Saturday. We won with South Dakota two nights ago as it rolled to a win over St. Thomas. Here, I believe it faces another overvalued side in Western Illinois, which has faced the 307th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, South Dakota has gone against the 132nd most difficult slate of opponents. The victory and cover over St. Thomas was South Dakota's first victory, SU or ATS, in its last five contests. I expect it to use that win as a jumping-off point here. Western Illinois checks in off consecutive ATS victories but lost by seven points at South Dakota State two nights back. Look for South Dakota to improve to a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series on Saturday. Take South Dakota (8*). |
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12-30-22 | UCLA v. Washington State +8.5 | Top | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over UCLA at 11 pm et on Friday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Washington State in this Pac-12 matchup as the Cougars look to snap their two-game skid - which represents their longest losing streak of the season. Washington State has fallen out of favor with bettors on the heels of three consecutive ATS losses, but I simply feel they're catching too many points here. UCLA has won eight straight games, including three in a row ATS heading in. The Bruins current three-game ATS win streak includes victories over Maryland and Kentucky but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued here. Note that while UCLA has faced a tough schedule - 69th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom - Washington State has gone against the 38th toughest. Take Washington State (10*). |
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12-30-22 | Coppin State +26 v. Rutgers | 57-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Rutgers at 8 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this is the easy layup most are projecting for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have delivered consecutive ATS wins and that's notable as they've yet to reel off three straight ATS wins at any point this season. Coppin State comes off consecutive ATS losses - also marking its longest such streak of the season. Here, we'll note that Coppin State has faced the 49th most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Rutgers has gone against the 212th toughest slate. Take Coppin State (8*). |
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12-30-22 | North Carolina -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Pittsburgh at 12 noon et on Friday. The Pitt Panthers enter this game riding an incredible eight-game ATS winning streak but I expect it to end here against the mighty Tar Heels of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have faced the much tougher schedule this season - 14th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Panthers have faced the 199th toughest schedule. North Carolina failed to deliver the cash last time out but just missed in a four-point victory (as a 5.5-point favorite) against Michigan. I expect a more straight-forward result on Friday. Take North Carolina (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2 | 50-46 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 8 pm et on Thursday. This is a 'shock to the system' spot for Florida Atlantic as it hits the road for the first time since December 4th, riding a 10-game winning streak (9-0 ATS) and facing one of the best defensive teams in the country in North Texas. The Mean Green Eagles are hot as well, winners of five straight games and two in a row ATS. You would have to go all the way back to November 13th - UNT's first game of the season - to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on 20 or more field goals. Also note that North Texas has faced the far tougher schedule according to KenPom - 146th compared to 285th - in this matchup. The Owls winning streak grinds to a halt here. Take North Texas (8*). |
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12-29-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota +1.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over St. Thomas at 8 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for South Dakota as it enters off a stunningly-poor offensive effort against UMKC. USD has now dropped four games in a row both SU and ATS after opening the campaign with five victories in its first eight contests. St. Thomas on the other hand rolls in riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. It won its most recent road game by a 76-70 score at Idaho State. Here, we'll note that St. Thomas has yet to register consecutive road victories this season. Meanwhile, South Dakota has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in its last nine home games when coming off an upset loss, as is the case here. Take South Dakota (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Providence v. Butler -1.5 | 72-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over Providence at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. While Providence is the hotter team right now, there's actually only two games separating these two teams this season, despite the fact that Butler has faced the far more difficult schedule (according to KenPom). While Providence has faced the 294th most difficult schedule so far, Butler checks in having gone against the 40th toughest slate. Here, we'll fade the Friars as they come off a 103-point effort against Marquette - their fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory. Butler is in a prime bounce-back spot at home after losing its last two games, with both of those defeats coming in blowout fashion. Take Butler (8*). |
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12-28-22 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 131 | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duquesne and Dayton at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think Dayton is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here after holding Wyoming and Alcorn State to fewer than 50 points in consecutive games. Duquesne has displayed a solid floor when it comes to point totals this season, scoring 66 points or more in 11 of 13 games to date. With both teams having faced similar schedules in terms of difficulty according to KenPom, you could argue that Duquesne has been the better offensive team. Defensively, the Dukes leave a lot to be desired, however, allowing three more made field goals on one less field goal attempt per game compared to the Flyers. Dayton is favored by nearly double-digits for a reason here but I do think Duquesne can at least bait it into a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Jacksonville in its most recent game but I think it's in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as it travels to face Notre Dame which is in a 'sling-shot' situation after a tough three-game stretch that saw it face Marquette, Georgia and Florida State. With that being said, I don't think we see the Irish run away and hide in this one. Note that Jacksonville has impressively gone 7-3 despite facing the 32nd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Irish are actually allowing five more made field goals on only two additional shot attempts per game this season in comparison with the Dolphins. The two teams are virtually mirror images of one another offensive, from a statistical standpoint at least, in the early going this season. I expect both to find some success here and we're dealing with a reasonably low total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-22 | Bellarmine v. Evansville OVER 127.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Bellarmine and Evansville at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I simply feel this total will prove too low as these two teams look to bounce back from losses suffered last time out. Bellarmine has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season - 10th most difficult according to KenPom - yet still checks in a respectable 105th in the country in offensive rating. I expect it to bring a barrage of threes against a vulnerable Evansville defense here (the Purple Aces rank 276th in the nation in terms of defensive rating). Bellarmine has played at a slow pace so far this season but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition they have gone against. The Purple Aces are a short underdog for a reason here, but do have something to build on after scoring 72 and 69 points, knocking down 18 threes along the way, in their last two games. I do think they can at least keep pace here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair as they look to go into the holiday break (they won't play again until the 29th) on a positive note. Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Jacksonville -6.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 12:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Jacksonville on Tuesday as I'm higher than most on the Dolphins (noting that they've faced the 14th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom). Today's opponent, Louisiana-Monroe, picked up its fourth win of the season against Lamar last time out. Keep in mind, Lamar is a 4-8 squad as well, one that has yet to post a win over a Division-I opponent. The Warhawks previous three victories this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, Central Baptist and Champion Christian College. Jacksonville has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games entering this one but one of those contests came against a solid 9-3 N.C.-Wilmington team and the other was a nine-point victory (missing the cover by only a bucket) over Charleston Southern. You'd be hard-pressed to find an area of the game where the Dolphins don't own an edge in this matchup - perhaps shot blocking is the lone exception. I'll lay the points. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Weber State v. Utah State -15.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. We'll lay the points with the Aggies here as they look to continue their red hot start to the season against Weber State. While Weber State has faced the tougher schedule so far this season according to KenPom, the difference is negligible with the Wildcats going against the 116th most difficult slate and Utah State checking in at 126th. With that in mind, Utah State has posted vastly superior numbers at both ends of the floor. The Aggies have made good on nine more field goals per game compared to Weber State, on exactly nine more attempts per contest. They've hit five more three-pointers per game on only four additional attempts from beyond the arc by comparison. It's a similar story at the other end of the floor with Utah State allowing one less made field goal per game, on six additional shot attempts per contest. From the outside, both teams have allowed eight made threes per game but Utah State has done so on two more attempts allowed. With Weber State coming off a stunning 74-45 win as a 5.5-point underdog at Cal-Poly, we'll fade the Wildcats in this letdown spot. Take Utah State (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Quinnipiac -3.5 v. St. Peter's | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have faced difficult schedules with Quinnipiac checking in having gone against the 342nd toughest slate of games according to KenPom and St. Peter's having faced the 357th most difficult. With that being said, Quinnipiac has certainly handled its business a little better, going 9-2 compared to the Peacocks 5-5 mark. The visitors have made good on three more field goals per game compared to the home side, despite getting off one less attempt per contest. From beyond the arc, Quinnipiac has knocked down one more three per game on one less attempt as well. Defensively, these two sides are difficult to compare but Quinnipiac has yielded four more made field goals per game, albeit on 10 additional attempts from the field on average. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Belmont v. Chattanooga -5 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chattanooga minus the points over Belmont at 2 pm et on Sunday. The difference in strength of schedule between these two teams this season is not insignificant with Chattanooga having faced the 154th toughest according to KenPom and Belmont checking in having gone against the 234th most difficult. With that in mind, Chattanooga has still managed to post better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on one more field goal per game despite averaging one less attempt compared to Belmont. Chattanooga has also allowed two fewer field goal makes to the opposition despite those foes getting off five more attempts per game compared to Belmont. It's been virtually a wash from beyond the arc, although Chattanooga would appear to have a slight edge defensively in that department as well, yielding just one additional made three per game on five more attempts by comparison. Take Chattanooga (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grambling State +18 v. Virginia Tech | 48-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grambling plus the points over Virginia Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. I don't think this will be the beatdown most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Blacksburg. Grambling State has actually faced the slightly tougher schedule compared to ACC opponent Virginia Tech this season (203rd toughest compared to 206th according to KenPom). In spite of that, Grambling's numbers hold up reasonably well here. Virginia Tech has been the better team offensively, but from a defensive standpoint, the Hokies have allowed five more field goal attempts per game with the opposition making good on all five of those in comparison to Grambling. Grambling has given up the same number of made three-pointers per contest as Virginia Tech, but on three additional attempts from beyond the arc per game. While Grambling has knocked down three fewer threes itself per game, that's on eight fewer attempts compared to the Hokies. Take Grambling (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Miami-OH v. Bellarmine -6.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bellarmine minus the points over Miami-Ohio at 4 pm et on Saturday. Bellarmine has quietly faced the fourth toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Miami-Ohio hasn't exactly faced a cupcake-laden sked, it ranks 178th in the country in that department. In spite of that, Bellarmine has arguably posted the better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on just one less field goal per game compared to Miami-Ohio, despite getting off an average of six fewer attempts per contest. It has also knocked down an identical nine three-pointers per game despite hoisting up two fewer attempts from beyond the arc. Defensively, Miami-Ohio yields seven more made field goals per contest (on nine additional attempts). Bellarmine allows one less made three-pointer per game despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts from outside. You get the idea. Take Bellarmine (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State minus the points over Texas State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Sam Houston State has quietly faced the 31st toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas State checks in having faced the 253rd most difficult schedule. In spite of that, SHSU has posted better numbers at both ends of the floor. SHSU has made good on six more field goals per game on just nine additional attempts per contest compared to Texas State. Defensively, the visitors have allowed five fewer made field goals per game on only two fewer attempts per contest. It's a similar story from beyond the arc with SHSU knocking down three more three-pointers per game on seven additional attempts and holding the opposition to just one more made three per contest on six additional attempts from outside. Take Sam Houston State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Bowling Green | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee-Martin plus the points over Bowling Green at 2 pm et on Saturday. There's little separating these two teams in terms of strength of schedule to this point with Tennessee-Martin checking in having faced the 257th toughest schedule according to KenPom and Bowling Green having gone against the 283rd most difficult slate of games. With the former coming in on an extended ATS slide I believe the pendulum has swung far enough to back it in this spot. Note that Tennessee-Martin knocks down four more field goals per game compared to Bowling Green this season, on only one additional attempt on average. It also makes good on two more three-pointers per contest one one more three-point attempt per game compared to BGSU. It's a similar story defensively, with both sides allowing 27 made field goals per game but Tennessee-Martin doing so on four more attempts per contest allowed. I expect this one to go down to the wire and will grab all the points I can get with the visitors. Take Tennessee-Martin (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Providence v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Providence at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with Seton Hall here as it looks to best Providence in a matchup of two teams riding identical three-game winning streaks. Only one game separates these two teams this season with Providence checking in with the slightly better overall record. All records aren't created equal, however, at least not in college basketball. Providence has faced the 349th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Seton Hall checks in having gone against the 61st most difficult schedule. Providence does own the better offensive numbers this season but Seton Hall can hold its own, and then some, defensively having allowed four fewer made field goals per game (on four fewer attempts per contest on average) compared to the Friars. Opponents are knocking down two fewer three-pointers per contest against Seton Hall despite hoisting up an identical 19 three-point attempts per game compared to Providence. I mentioned that the Friars have been superior offensively but not necessarily from beyond the arc, where both teams check in having made good on 6-of-19 threes per game. Take Seton Hall (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Murray State minus the points over Austin Peay at 8 pm et on Friday. It hasn't been a banner start to the season for Murray State and that was clear in its most recent game as it struggled to get past Chicago State as a double-digit favorite, ultimately winning that game by a single point. I do like the way the matchup favors the Racers on Friday, however, as they host Austin Peay. While the latter has faced the 205th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, Murray State has faced the 153rd most difficult. That's notable as the Racers have advantages at both ends of the floor in spite of it. Murray State has gotten off one less field goal attempt per game this season but has actually made good on one additional shot per contest compared to Austin Peay. At the defensive end of the floor it's really no contest as Murray State has allowed one more made field goal per game in comparison with Austin Peay, but on 10 more attempts per contest. In a similar vein, Murray State's opponents have knocked down one more three-point attempt per game compared to Austin Peay, but on seven additional attempts on average. We'll confidently lay the points with a Racers squad that took both meetings last season by double-digit margins. Take Murray State (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Santa Clara | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Santa Clara at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Anteaters of Cal-Irvine have faced the 58th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom (Santa Clara checks in at 157th) yet have all but matched the Broncos numbers to date. In fact, UC-Irvine averages four more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to Santa Clara. It also knocks down an identical eight three-pointers per contest despite getting off six fewer attempts per game from beyond the arc. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor. Santa Clara gives up seven more field goal attempts per game compared to UC-Irvine, with opponents making good on five of those extra seven shots. On four more three-point attempts yielded per game, the Broncos allow a per game average of three additional makes from beyond the arc. Add in the fact that UC-Irvine has seen its opponents knock down a likely unsustainable 71% of their free throw attempts, and I like the Anteaters chances of staging a minor upset here. Take Cal-Irvine (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Bowling Green v. Norfolk State -4.5 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State minus the points over Bowling Green at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Norfolk State as it looks to pick up a second victory over Bowling Green in as many years following last year's 90-84 road triumph. According to KenPom, Norfolk State has faced the 19th toughest schedule in the nation this season. Bowling Green on the other hand checks in having gone against the 297th toughest. In spite of that, the Falcons have made good on two fewer field goals per game compared to Norfolk State, on six more attempts. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor where Bowling Green has allowed three more made field goals on only one additional attempt compared to Norfolk State. The Falcons have recorded two of their three highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests and perhaps that is holding plenty of water with this line. I simply feel that Norfolk State is the superior team at both ends of the floor and will once again frustrate Bowling Green after keeping the Falcons on the perimeter for much of last year's contest between the two teams (BGSU hoisted up 40 three-point attempts, making only 12 in that game). Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Stetson +15 v. College of Charleston | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stetson plus the points over Charleston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I realize that this is a 'revenge game' for Charleston after it went on the road and lost by eight points as a 5.5-point favorite against Stetson in last year's meeting between the two teams. I also realize that Charleston is off to a terrific 10-1 start to the season while Stetson checks in at 5-3. Still, I'll happily grab the generous helping of points with the underdog side here as I like the way it matches up. Note that Stetson has quietly faced the 72nd toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Charleston checks in having gone against the 107th most difficult schedule. With that said, Stetson has made good on one more field goal per game (one one less attempt) compared to Charleston while also allowing two fewer made field goals on just one less attempt. Stetson has also knocked down 10 three-pointers per game - an identical average to that of Charleston, however Stetson has done it on three fewer attempts per contest. I just don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as is seemingly being indicated by the lofty pointspread. Take Stetson (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Queens NC +3.5 v. East Tennessee State | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Queens plus the points over East Tennessee State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Noting that East Tennessee State hasn't really faced anyone of substance this season (345th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom) and still limps into this contest having lost five of its last seven games SU and all six from an ATS perspective in lined contests over that stretch, I'm not sure it has any business laying points here. Queens has done nothing but impress, going 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 ATS in lined games this season. It checks in having knocked down two more field goals per game compared to East Tennessee State, while getting off only one additional attempt per contest. It also allows only two more made field goals per game despite yielding nine more attempts than ETSU. It goes on from there - Queens makes good on nine three-pointers per game compared to six for ETSU, with the former only attempting four additional shots from beyond the arc. You get the idea. We'll grab the points here. Take Queens-Charlotte (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Coastal Carolina +4.5 v. South Dakota | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Dakota at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take a flyer on Coastal Carolina here in this rematch of a meeting on November 26th - the Chanticleers won that game by seven points as a four-point home favorite. I've yet to see anything indicating that South Dakota is worthy of the 'favorite' tag here. Yes, South Dakota has faced the more difficult schedule this season but it has also gone a woeful 2-7 ATS in lined contests. Note that Coastal Carolina is getting off five more field goal attempts per game, and has made good on all five, averaging 29 made field goals per contest compared to South Dakota's 24. CCU has also held opponents to just 24 made field goals per game, that's three fewer than South Dakota has given up, despite CCU yielding three more FG attempts per contest. South Dakota does have a slight edge in terms of three-point shooting, but CCU has defended the perimeter reasonably well, allowing just eight makes on 25 attempts per game (South Dakota allows the same number of made threes on two fewer attempts). Take Coastal Carolina (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Alabama at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is being indicated by the pointspread. Alabama has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom but Memphis isn't far behind at 40th. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down one more field goal per game compared to Alabama despite attempting four fewer shots per contest. While 'Bama has made good on four more three-pointers per game, that's only because it has gotten off 13 more attempts compared to Memphis. Defensively, I have the two teams as a virtual wash with the Crimson Tide in slightly poorer form having allowed their last four opponents to make good on 26, 38, 26 and 25 field goals. We can anticipate a high-scoring environment here with neither side looking to slow the pace of the opposition in recent games. Given that, I expect the Tigers offensive prowess to keep them in the game from start to finish as they look to upset the revenge-minded Crimson Tide (Memphis took last year's matchup 92-78). Take Memphis (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Green Bay v. St. Thomas -12 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas minus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands in this one as St. Thomas catches Green Bay coming off an outright upset as a 6.5-point underdog against UMKC last time out. While Green Bay has struggled to eclipse 23 made field goals on most nights (that's its high-water mark in that department this season), St. Thomas has been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor. St. Thomas averages seven more made field goals per game compared to Green Bay on just six more attempts. It has also been considerably sharper defensively, yielding two fewer made field goals despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts per contest compared to Green Bay. There's no real discrepancy here in terms of strength of schedule as KenPom rates Green Bay as having faced the 229th toughest schedule in the country with St. Thomas checking in at 223rd. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Stonehill +13 v. Boston College | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stonehill plus the points over Boston College at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer on Stonehill on Tuesday as it looks to make life miserable for the already-cantankerous Boston College Eagles, a team that has lost four consecutive games. Despite the two teams facing a similar strength of schedule to this point this season (Boston College ranks 165th and Stonehill checks in 178th according to KenPom), we've seen them post similar numbers at both ends of the floor. Stonehill has actually knocked down one more field goal per game on two fewer attempts, while allowing three additional made fields goals per contest, but on five extra attempts. Stonehill is getting off four more three-point attempts per game compared to Boston College, and impressively knocking down all four of those extra shot attempts from beyond the arc. While B.C. will obviously be desperate to end its slide, Stonehill should come to play as well off a double-digit loss as a four-point underdog against Rider last time out. I'll grab all the points I can get with a team that has proven it can go on the road and win outright in an underdog role, having done so at Army and at Binghamton (I realize beating an ACC team on the road is a different story but here we're catching a generous helping of points). Take Stonehill (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Longwood -8 v. St Francis NY | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Longwood minus the points over St. Francis-NY at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll bite with Longwood as a road favorite here, noting that it has faced the tougher schedule (marginally according to KenPom) and rates out considerably stronger at both ends of the floor despite the near indentical records the two teams have posted this season. Longwood handled St. Francis-NY by nine points the last time these two teams met back in 2019. The only reason St. Francis was remotely competitive in that game was because it shot just shy of 51% from the field. Here, we'll note that Longwood is averaging six more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to St. Francis this season. At the other end of the floor, Longwood is allowing one less made field goal despite yielding one additional shot attempt per contest. Longwood has also made the most of its opportunities from three-point range, getting off two more shots per game from beyond the arc compared to St. Francis, making good on both of those attempts. Look for Longwood to pull away for the convincing win this afternoon. Take Longwood (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State OVER 139.5 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring slugfest last year as Arizona State pulled off a stunner by a score of 58-57. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of pace here, noting that the high-flying Blue Jays were limited to only 54 field goal attempts in that defeat last year. Their low-water mark in that department this season is 53 but that came in a game where they scored 90 points in a win over Arkansas. I think the question here is whether the Sun Devils can get theirs offensively and I'm confident they can given the way Creighton's opponents have been stuffing the boxscore. The Blue Jays check in having yielded 30 or more made field goals in four of their last five games. Creighton is certainly in line for some positive regression offensively here. After knocking down 31+ field goals in four of its first six games this season it has been held to 27 or fewer made field goals in four straight contests. While Arizona State has been locked in defensively, I think it's in for a 'shock to the system' here against Creighton's shooting barrage. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton -3.5 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. Creighton already had plenty of reason to circle this game on its schedule after Arizona State stunned the Blue Jays 58-57 as a seven-point underdog in last year's matchup between the two teams. Here, we find the Blue Jays riding an unexpected four-game losing streak while the Sun Devils have exceeded expectations by winning nine of their first 10 games. It all leads to a convincing Creighton victory in my opinion. The Sun Devils aren't likely to contain the Blue Jays offense the way they did in last year's matchup, limiting Creighton to just 54 field goal attempts in that previous meeting. Creighton is shooting an average of 29-for-62 this season and should provide Arizona State with a 'shock to its system' after the Sun Devils were favored by five points or more in four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are an impressive 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games following consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 5.7 points on average in that situation. Take Creighton (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Yale -5.5 v. Fairfield | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale minus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Monday. On the heels of its first losing streak this season, Yale will undoubtedly be locked in on its MAAC opponent tonight. There's no shame in the Bulldogs last two losses as they came against Butler and Kentucky, both on the road, and they managed to split those contests from an ATS perspective. Here, they'll face Fairfield riding its first winning streak of the season (two games). Despite facing the tougher schedule (according to KenPom), Yale has made good on nine more field goals (on eight more attempts) per game compared to Fairfield while also limiting opponents to three fewer made field goals (on just one more attempt) per contest this season. The Bulldogs are yielding the same number of made three-pointers (six) per game on two additional attempts. Fairfield has managed to stay competitive largely due to its ability to get to the free throw line (21 attempts per game), however Yale has limited its opponents to just 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Off consecutive losses, I think we see a disciplined performance from the Bulldogs here as they stretch out the margin for a comfortable victory. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 149 | 60-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Friday. Off a stretch that saw it face Purdue, Xavier and Baylor in succession perhaps Gonzaga can be excused for an less-than-inspiring performance against Kent State last time out. Off consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a much stronger offensive showing from the Bulldogs on Friday. Washington's opponents have shot a woeful 39.3% from the field this season. Some of that has to do with strong defensive play from the Huskies but part of it is simply related to luck. With that said, Washington has still allowed five of its last seven opponents to make good on 24 or more field goals. The Huskies have shown no ability, or interest to dictate their opponents' pace and I'm confident Gonzaga can take full advantage of that on Friday. For their part, the Bulldogs allowed 64 and 66 points in their last two games, despite those two opponents shooting sub-40% from the field. While Washington's offensive ceiling isn't all that high, its floor is at a solid level, noting that the Huskies have made good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last eight contests, held to a low-water mark of 62 points on the season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-08-22 | St. Thomas +7.5 v. Montana State | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas plus the points over Montana State at 9 pm et on Thursday. While Montana State has faced the considerably tougher schedule this season, St. Thomas has had a couple of true step-up games (against Creighton and Utah) as well and I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the pointspread indicates. St. Thomas averages three more made field goals per contest on the same number as attempts per game as Montana State this season. It has made good on four more three-pointers per game on just four additional attempts. At the other end of the floor, St. Thomas has allowed the same number of made field goals on two additional attempts per game compared to Montana State. Both teams have seen their opponents make good on better than 72% of their free throw attempts, certainly not a sustainable trend. I realize this is fairly rudimentary handicapping but I think it works in this spot and with Montana State coming off consecutive ATS wins, matching its longest such streak of the season, I like the fade of the home side here. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. Colorado has faced the 25th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and while this matchup with Colorado State looks daunting when you consider the Rams have scored 80+ points in three straight and five of nine games this season, it's important to note that CSU has faced a cupcake schedule (311th toughest in the nation according to KenPom) and is certainly in line for some regression from the field having shot just shy of 50% on the campaign. Colorado has actually allowed just two more made field goals per game (25) compared to Colorado State this season. The Buffaloes have had to play keep-up much of the way, knocking down 26 field goals per contest (that's two fewer than CSU on average, on four more attempts per game). Both of these teams have seen the opposition make good on better than 70% of their free throw attempts - not a sustainable average in my opinion. This has generally been a series played in the 120's and 130's, although the two teams haven't met since the 2019-20 season. I believe this total will prove too high on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Brown v. Rhode Island UNDER 131 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brown and Rhode Island at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Brown should have Rhode Island's undivided attention for this game as the Bears come off four straight wins, shooting 52% or better from the field in their last two contests. Keep in mind, the Rams are coming off an 88-74 loss to Providence in which the Friars shot a blistering 54% from the field. There have essentially been three games where Rhode Island's opponents have shot the lights out this season, that most recent affair against Providence being one of them. Apart from that, the Rams have been tough defensively and I do think this is a matchup they can handle. Both teams sit around the middle of the pack in terms of tempo with Rhode Island checking in 184th and Brown just behind at 187th. Playing at home, I do think we see the Rams dictate the pace here and they certainly won't want to let Brown get out and run after getting boat-raced by Providence last time out (the Friars got off 63 field goal attempts in that game - only the second time Rhode Island allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 56 FG attempts this season). Take the under (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Cornell v. Miami-FL -15.5 | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Wednesday CBB Free play. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Cornell at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always on the lookout for 'shock to the system' type of situations and that's precisely what we have here as Cornell puts its seven-game winning streak on the line against Miami. The Big Red check in 7-1 on the season but they've faced a cupcake schedule (333rd in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom). Cornell has been shooting the lights out with little need to slow things down and make life difficult for opposing offenses. That should come back to bite it here as Miami clamps down defensively while also making the most of its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor. Take Miami. |
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12-06-22 | Yale +6.5 v. Butler | 61-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Butler at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel these two teams are mirror images of one another with the potential for the case to be made for Yale to be the slightly superior team at both ends of the floor, yet here we are catching more than a handful of points with the visiting Bulldogs. Yale does come off a win but non-cover against Stony Brook last time out but there's not much to complain about as it had previously a perfect six-for-six covering in line games this season. Butler comes off consecutive games shooting better than 50% from the field but should be held in check by a Yale defense that has allowed an average of just 19 made field goals on 55 attempts this season. By contrast, Butler has yielded seven more made field goals on only four additional attempts per game this season. While I realize Butler has faced the tougher schedule, I'm not convinced the lofty pointspread is warranted here. Additionally, Butler has made good on just shy of 74% of its free throw attempts this season, not a sustainable percentage in my opinion, while also sending its opponents to the line only 11 times per contest, also unsustainable. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Campbell and East Carolina at 7 pm et on Friday. East Carolina checks into this game off back-to-back losses, held under 70 points in both contests after opening the season by scoring 75+ points in six straight games. Pirates opponents have been 'filling it up' so far this season, with six of eight foes having made good on 26 or more field goals, six of eight opponents have also scored more than 70 points. We will give the Pirates due respect in this bounce-back spot, however, confident that they can at least keep up with the Campbell Tigers in the role of short home favorite. Campbell successfully rebounded from its worst offensive showing of the season by exploding for 87 points last time out against Stetson. While Stetson's break-neck pace had a lot to do with that high-scoring result, it's not as if East Carolina will be looking to slow it down either. The problem is, the Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down the same number of field goals per game (24) as ECU despite six fewer attempts while making good on just one less three-pointer per contest, also on eight fewer attempts. Both of these teams get to the free throw line with consistency as Campbell averages 22 FT attempts per contest and ECU checks in averaging 23. The last time these two squads met in 2019 they combined to score 146 points. While the personnel has obviously changed, I'm anticipating a similar result here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-22-22 | UMKC v. Indiana State -9.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana State minus the points over UMKC at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri-Kansas City pulled off a stunner against Toledo yesterday, winning by double-digits as a 17.5-point underdog. Toledo actually got off 16 more field goal attempts than UMKC in that contest, but couldn't make the most of its opportunities, shooting worse than 40% from the field. Speaking of poor shooting, Indiana State had an uncharacteristically-bad shooting performance against East Carolina yesterday, yet still defeated East Carolina 79-75. The experienced Sycamores have done a tremendous job of frustrating the opposition this season, allowing 20, 25, 27 and 22 made field goals while forcing at least 15 turnovers in fall four contests. Not surprisingly, they check in a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the lone pointspread defeat coming in yesterday's narrow victory over ECU. UMKC is allowing far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, yielding its first six opponents 60, 57, 64, 62, 58 and 66 field goal attempts - that despite two of those games coming against little-known schools in Lincoln (Missouri) and Calvary. Take Indiana State (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Mercer v. Florida State -5.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Mercer at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Florida State is off to an 0-4 start both SU and ATS, experiencing some of the growing pains you might come to expect from a team returning just one starter. With that being said, I like the way this one sets up for the Seminoles as they catch Murray State coming off a home win and cover against Winthrop on Saturday. Mercer has shot 50% or better from the field in all four games to date this season but I'm willing to bet it won't keep that up. While Florida State has yet to find its shooting stroke, it had played fairly tough defense, limiting its first four opponents to 42.2% shooting. Noting that FSU is 22-10 ATS the last 32 times it has played at home off three or more consecutive losses, we'll confidently back the 'Noles here. Take Florida State (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Providence and Miami at 4 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been made to look very good offensively over the last couple of games but that's had everything to do with the level of competition they've faced. Here, we'll note that neither team has allowed an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts through three games this season. We've also seen some good discipline out of both teams defensively, with Providence yielding just 10 free throw attempts per game and Miami checking in allowing 13. In what projects as a tightly-contested affair with Miami favored by just a couple of points, I'll back the 'under' in Uncasville on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's no question which way I'm going with the total in this early season showdown between the Spartans and Wildcats. The 'under' has combined to go 3-1 in these two teams' first four games this season and there's little reason to anticipate a reversal of that trend here. Kentucky has been 'filling it up' through two games, knocking down 34 and 28 field goals in blowout wins over Howard and Duquesne - both at Rupp Arena no less. It isn't likely to enjoy the same type of success here, however, noting that Michigan State just got done holding Gonzaga to only 23 made field goals in a tough 64-63 loss on Friday. Speaking of that game, the Spartans could only muster 21 made field goals against the Zags and now deal with a Kentucky defense that limited its first two opponents to just 43-of-133 shooting, despite the lopsided nature of those two aforementioned contests. Noting that the 'under' is a long-term 110-79 with Michigan State playing on a neutral court and 13-2 the last 15 times Kentucky has come off a double-digit home victory, as is the case here, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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11-14-22 | Delaware State v. Villanova -36 | 50-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Delaware State at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Villanova has gone 0-2 ATS to open the season including an outright loss against Temple last time out. I expect the Wildcats to 'get right' on Monday, however, as they host Delaware State. The Hornets own an identical 1-1 record to that of Villanova but all records aren't created equal. The Hornets opened their season with a 95-57 blowout loss at Virginia Tech before evening their record with a 104-67 win over, wait for it, Immaculata. Delaware State not surprisingly shot the lights out in that most recent contest but concerning was the fact that it allowed its virtually unknown opponent to make good on 21-of-43 field goal attempts. Take Villanova (8*). |
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11-12-22 | UMass Lowell v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass-Lowell and Rutgers at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with UMass-Lowell crushing Columbia 89-62 and Rutgers rolling to an 88-50 rout of Sacred Heart (we won with the Scarlet Knights in that game). Note that Rutgers got off 'only' 60 field goal attempts in Thursday's win after hoisting up 72 in its season-opener against a defense-less Columbia squad. The Scarlet Knights have absolutely manhandled their first two opponents defensively, limiting them to 47 and 53 field goal attempts. UMass-Lowell has thrived from beyond the arc through two games, averaging 10 made three-pointers per contest. Rutgers, however, has limited its first two opponents to a grand total of six made threes. Like Rutgers, UMass-Lowell has also played with some defensive intensity in the early going this season, yielding just 18 and 19 made field goals to its first two opponents. After turning the basketball over 21 times last time out and facing a Rutgers defense that has forced 50 turnovers through two games, I can't help but think UMass-Lowell's number one priority in this one will simply be hanging on to the basketball, ultimately leading to plenty of shot clock-draining possessions. Take the under (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Southern v. Arizona -27 | 78-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Southern at 9 pm et on Friday. With this game totalled in the 150's, I expect Arizona to make things very uncomfortable for Southern in a fast-paced environment in Tucson on Friday. The Wildcats erupted for 117 points in their season-opening win over Nicholls State, despite turning the basketball over 24 times in that contest. Incredibly, Arizona missed only 15 field goal attempts in the entire game. Southern is coming off a SU loss but ATS cover against UNLV, falling by a score of 66-56. Southern made good on just 19 field goals in that game and now faces a much tougher challenge against the Wildcats. Take Arizona (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Oklahoma -28 | 58-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 8 pm et on Friday. Arkansas-Pine Bluff went into Fort Worth and gave TCU the scare of all scares in its season-opener, losing by a single point as a 35.5-point (!) underdog. Meanwhile, Oklahoma lost outright as a 16.5-point favorite at home against a good Sam Houston State squad. I have no trouble getting behind the Sooners in this bounce-back spot, noting that Pine Bluff is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when priced as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points, as is the case here. Pine Bluff is in for a major letdown after scoring 87 points (it needed 82 field goal attempts and 25 forced turnovers to get there) against Champion Baptist last time out. While the Sooners did lose their opener, they actually held Sam Houston State to 21-of-64 shooting from the field. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Alabama State v. USC -24.5 | 58-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Alabama State at 11 pm et on Thursday. USC took it on the chin in its season-opener, falling in a stunner against Florida-Gulf Coast (it lost by 13 points as an 18.5-point favorite). That should get the Trojans attention as they prepare to bounce back against a much more manageable opponent in Alabama State on Thursday night. Alabama State lost by a whopping 41 points in its season-opener against UAB on Monday. While the Hornets did get off 76 field goal attempts in that game, few were of the high quality variety as they ultimately knocked down only 24 of them in a losing effort. Lost in USC's upset loss against FGCU was the fact that it held the Eagles to 24-of-64 shooting. Sloppy play was the story as the Trojans turned the basketball over 15 times. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from USC on Thursday as it gets out and runs after being limited to only 52 field goal attempts against a stingy FGCU defense on Monday. This is as good as it gets in terms of 'get right' spots in the first week of the season. Take USC (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Sacred Heart v. Rutgers -20.5 | 50-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Sacred Heart at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams last met a little under two years ago with Rutgers winning by 23 points despite making just one three-pointer and knocking down just 5-of-15 free throw attempts. Obviously both teams have undergone considerable personnel changes since then but I don't anticipate a much different result with Sacred Heart in a letdown spot off a win and cover over Hartford and Rutgers appearing to be in midseason form in a 75-35 dismantling of Columbia in its season-opener. The Scarlet Knights turned the Lions over a whopping 25 times in that lopsided victory. Sacred Heart likes to play up-tempo, most recently affording Hartford 61 field goal attempts in its season-opening victory. That plays right into the hands of the Scarlet Knights, who made good on 31-of-72 field goal attempts against Columbia. Rutgers can certainly make Sacred Heart uncomfortable here with a smothering defense that limited Columbia to only 47 FG attempts last time out. Take Rutgers (8*). |
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11-08-22 | Mercer +1 v. East Carolina | 75-77 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mercer over East Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. East Carolina does come out of the larger conference but as the line indicates, I don't think it is the better team in this matchup, at least not at this early stage of the season. The Pirates are in a bit of a transition year, with a new head coach and a number of new faces in the lineup. East Carolina loses its top three scorers from last season and while the cupboard is by no means bare, I do think it's going to take some time for this squad to come together. The Bears on the other hand, return three of five starters from last season and I expect them to use this game as a launching point as they build toward a showdown against Florida State in Tallahassee later this month. Note that Mercer has been comfortable playing in this pointspread range, going 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games where the line was set between +3 and -3. In the same pointspread range, ECU has gone just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Pirates home court advantage has been virtually non-existent, at least from an ATS perspective, as they've gone just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 lined home games. Take Mercer (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Hofstra v. Princeton OVER 151 | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hofstra and Princeton at 7:30 pm et on Monday. These two teams met last season with Hofstra prevailing by a score of 81-77. That was a game that saw just 21 made three-pointers and only 15 free throw attempts. Both teams have some talent to replace this season - Princeton in particular with three starters from last year's team having moved on. The cupboard is by no means bare, however. Hofstra adds Tyler Thomas from Sacred Heart, where he averaged over 19 points per game last season and could challenge Aaron Estrada for CAA Player of the Year - an award won by Estrada in 2021-22. While we're dealing with a higher posted total in this matchup than we saw in last year's meeting, I don't believe it will prove to be high enough. Note that the 'over' is 25-10 in Hofstra's last 35 games as a road underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 153.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-2 in Princeton's last 12 non-conference tilts, also averaging a total of 153.4 points in those contests. Take the over (8*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Kansas at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with our big play on the 'over' in North Carolina's thrilling 81-77 win over Duke in the Final Four on Saturday. Kansas also saw its rout of Villanova sail 'over' the total. I believe both results are setting us up with an inflated total on Monday, keeping in mind both teams entered the Final Four on the heels of consecutive 'under' results. We can't anticipate Kansas to go off from three-point range again on Monday the way it did on Saturday. The Jayhawks made good on 13-of-24 attempts from beyond the arc in that contest but average just 6-of-18 from three-point range away from home this season. We also can't count on North Carolina to get to the free throw line 24 times the way it did against Duke (Kansas yields opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season). The Jayhawks have done a tremendous job defensively, allowing 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games overall with the 'under' cashing in five of those nine games. It's worth noting that this is the highest posted total we've seen in any of Kansas' last 10 contests, by a considerable margin (the next highest was 145.5). While both teams are certainly capable of 'filling it up' the fact is neither has topped 29 made field goals in any of their last four games, respectively. In fact, the Tar Heels have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in regulation time in four consecutive games. Kansas has made good on 29 field goals in consecutive games after being held to just 27 and 22 against Creighton and Providence. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between these rivals this season with the previous two both sailing 'over' the total we're working with on Saturday. Given the way both teams have played leading up to and in this tournament, barring one of both sides going ice cold shooting the ball, I see no other way to go but the 'over' again here in their much-anticipated Final Four showdown. We missed with the 'over' in the Tar Heels most recent game - a 69-49 rout of an overmatched St. Peter's squad last Sunday. The Peacocks actually got off 60 field goal attempts in that game but knocked down only 18 of them in the blowout loss. North Carolina has now yielded its opponents 73, 81 (OT game against Baylor), 62 and 60 FG attempts in four games in this tournament. Prior to its Elite Eight matchup, UNC had allowed 25+ made field goals in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have made good on 25+ field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While not all of their recent opponents have shot well, the Blue Devils have essentially been a 'swinging door' defensively, allowing 62+ field goal attempts in eight consecutive games. Seven of their last eight opponents have knocked down 26+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-1-1 over that stretch. Of course, from an offensive standpoint, few are doing it better than the Blue Devils right now as they've made good on 30, 32, 28 and 29 field goals in their first four games in this tournament. Duke has scored 78+ points in nine of its last 10 games overall. Its lone 'under' result over that stretch came in a game where its opening round opponents in this tourney, Cal-State Fullerton, shot a woeful 24-of-64 from the field. With UNC allowing 65 field goal attempts per game away from home this season, not to mention eight made threes per contest, I believe the door is open for Duke to set the pace on Saturday. Meanwhile, we haven't seen UNC's best offensively over the last couple of games but we know its capable of keeping up here, noting that it scored a whopping 95 points in a stunning victory in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor back on March 5th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 126.5 | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Fresno State and Coastal Carolina at 6 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in the semi-finals of this tournament but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Thursday's final. The pace was actually there for 'over' results in both semi-final contests. Fresno State did its part, knocking down 50% of its field goal attempts to put up 67 points but its opponent, Southern Utah, couldn't hit anything, making good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts in a 19-point loss. Part of that obviously had to do with Fresno State's defense, but sometimes the shots simply aren't falling as well. The fact that Southern Utah was able to get off 66 attempts encourages me to play the 'over' here as I certainly don't expect Coastal Carolina to shoot as poorly. The Chanticleers check in having made good on 27, 21, 23, 28, 24, 22, 25, 33 and 28 field goals (you get the picture - consistency is what we're looking for) over their last nine games with the 'over' going 5-3-1 over that stretch. Coastal Carolina allowed South Alabama to get off 66 FG attempts in the semis. Five of the Chanticleers last seven opponents have hoisted up 58+ FG attempts with four of those teams scoring at least 68 points. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Bonaventure and Xavier at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Xavier's most recent game - a 75-73 NIT quarter-final victory over Vanderbilt. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Musketeers take on St. Bonaventure in NIT semi-final action on Tuesday. Xavier continues to allow the opposition to get off plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60, 65, 64, 60, 64 and 59 field goal attempts over its last six games. St. Bonaventure figures to take advantage of those opportunities, noting that it has knocked down 30, 24, 29, 27 and 20 field goals over its last five games with the outlier being a defensive slugfest against one of the slowest-paced and defensively-elite teams in the country in Virginia last time out. The Bonnies have generally done a nice job of limiting their opponents opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 FG attempts in 12 straight games heading into this one. However, they'll have their hands full with Xavier. The Musketeers check in having made good on 35, 33, 24, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five contests, most recently thriving in the second half of their win over Vandy. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Xavier was held to fewer than 72 points. In a game where I expect the pace to tick up a bit, I'm confident both offenses can continue to thrive and this total will quite simply prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Third Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Utah and Fresno State at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State has looked like a different team in this tournament, making good on 28 and 27 field goals while scoring 80+ points in both games. Perhaps getting out of the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference was just what the doctor ordered. Here, the Bulldogs draw another vulnerable defensive opponent in Southern Utah. The Jaguars have consistently allowed between 23-28 made field goals per contest over the last month. On the flip side, Southern Utah has been scoring with the best of them, knocking down 27, 28, 25, 28, 32 and 29 field goals over its last six contests. Fresno State played lights out defensive basketball earlier in the season but that hasn't really been the case lately. The Bulldogs have yielded 26, 20, 26 and 23 made field goals over their last four games, despite a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate the Jaguars forcing the issue a little more than Fresno's recent opponents, noting that they've averaged 27-for-61 shooting away from home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and North Carolina at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' (barely) in St. Peter's upset win over Purdue on Friday. That game just about got to the posted total but ultimately fell just short, largely due to the pace simply not being there. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. North Carolina continues to push the pace at every opportunity, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Of course, the Tar Heels continue to make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, they're also affording their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, allowing 73, 81 and 62 FG attempts through their first three tournament games. Their last four opponents have made good on 25, 26, 28 and 28 field goals with all four of those opponents scoring at least 63 points. While St. Peter's certainly isn't known for its offense, it has scored 64+ points in five of its last six contests. That's despite playing at a very slow pace. Defensively, the Peacocks are terrific, but we have seen Kentucky and Purdue at least find some success, and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full with a Tar Heels offense that is peaking at the right time. Take the over (9*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Thursday's Arkansas-Gonzaga game wasn't a typical one for the Razorbacks. They average 60 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and had gotten off 57 or fewer in four straight games prior to that contest. Yet they ended up hoisting up 72 field goal attempts, making good only only 29 of them, in that stunning upset victory. On the flip side, they also allowed the Zags to get off 64 FG attempts - well north of the 57 FG attempts they yield on average away from home this season. It's not the way Hogs head coach Eric Musselman wants this game to play out on Saturday against the red hot Blue Devils, I'm sure of that. Duke has shot better than 51% in each of its first three games in this tournament. Interestingly, it has actually attempted 58 or fewer field goals in all three contests. I'm not expecting anything to come easy for the Blue Devils on offense here. Note that Arkansas has held six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. With that being said, there is seemingly a 'ceiling' for the Arkansas offense. Even with 70+ FG attempts against Gonzaga it still managed to make good on just 29 field goals. Prior to that it had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. The Hogs have of course made their living at the free throw line this season but it is worth mentioning that the Blue Devils send opponents to the charity stripe just 12 times per game. With the Blue Devils coming off consecutive 'over' results (we cashed with the 'over' in both games), I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 131.5 | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Miami at 9:55 pm et on Friday. The 'under' has cashed in both the first and second round for both of these teams in this tournament. In fact, the last 'over' result for Miami came in a game where we were on that side of the total in an 80-76 loss to Duke in the ACC tournament. I'll go back to the well here, noting that this is the lowest total we've seen in a game involving the Hurricanes in this tournament, by a considerable margin. Miami isn't likely to allow Iowa State to dictate the (slow) pace the way it did in its first two tournament games against LSU and Wisconsin. The Hurricanes have consistently been getting (and making) their shots for weeks now. They check in having knocked down 27+ field goals in 12 of their last 13 games. The lone outlier came in the opener of this tournament against USC - a contest that got off to an incredibly slow start before both teams heated up in the second half (we just missed with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, Miami is certainly fortunate that Auburn wasn't able to hit anything in its second round matchup, as it did yield the Tigers a whopping 69 field goal attempts. The Canes can't count on the Cyclones shooting as poorly as they did in their first two tourney games (they made just 20 field goals in each contest - shooting sub-36% in both games). Note that entering this tournament, Iowa State had allowed 28, 25, 22, 26, 20, 21, 25, 20, 23, 26 and 28 made field goals over its last 11 games (I know you get the picture but sometimes seeing the numbers visually is better). None of those numbers are earth-shattering, but my point is, the Cyclones haven't been completely locking opponents down defensively. I am confident Iowa State can contribute enough offensively to help this total along, noting that Miami ranks 121st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom. The Canes check in having allowed opponents to make good on 26-of-56 field goal attempts per game including eight made threes per contest away from home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and Purdue at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen this total drop since opening as it seems bettors have little faith in St. Peter's to keep it rolling against Purdue. The Peacocks have certainly impressed through two tournament games, scoring 85 points in a win over Kentucky (aided by overtime - they scored 71 points in regulation time) and then 70 points in a double-digit victory over Murray State. Even though the game against Kentucky went to overtime, the Peacocks still made good on 27-of-54 field goal attempts in regulation time. Here, they're likely to be afforded a whole lot more scoring opportunities, noting that Purdue has yielded 61, 60, 59, 69, 61, 63 and 68 field goal attempts over its last seven games. The Boilermakers allow an average of 61 FG attempts per game away from home this season. Not only that, but the opposition has knocked down an average of nine three-pointers per game against the Boilers away from their home gym. My point is, there's going to be a path for the Peacocks to score a reasonable number of points and keep this game competitive - which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Of course, little needs to be said about the Purdue offense. The Boilers currently rank first in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While St. Peter's has been terrific defensively, coming from the MAAC it's no surprise that its slate of opponents ranks 185th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a considerable step up in class, noting that the Peacocks allowed Kentucky to make good on 26-of-61 field goal attempts in the opening round of this tournament (again, aided by overtime). Earlier in the season, St. Peter's faced a couple of opponents in the same vein as Purdue, with those contests totalling 161 points against St. John's and 156 points against Providence - another team that's still dancing in this tournament. I mentioned that Purdue has yielded plenty of FG attempts on a game-by-game basis but it has also allowed 26+ made field goals in seven of its last nine games. Both teams have shown the ability to get to the free throw line with St. Peter's averaging 20 field goal attempts per game while also sending opponents to the line 22 times per contest. Purdue averages 22 trips to the charity stripe per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona OVER 145 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Arizona at 9:59 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest total in a game involving Houston since way back on December 11th when it faced Alabama - a game that totalled 165 points. I believe it's warranted. While Arizona's offense will get most of the hype leading into this matchup, it's worth noting that Houston has made good on 25+ field goals in 13 of its last 16 games, eclipsing the 30 field goal mark in six of those games. Here, the Cougars will likely be involved a much faster-paced game than they're used to, but I don't think we'll see them shy away from an up-tempo affair. Arizona has yielded 62, 69, 69 and 74 field goal attempts over its last four games and 60+ FG attempts in 21 of their last 25 contests overall. Of course, as I alluded to, the Wildcats are capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard on any given night. They've racked up 26+ made field goals in eight straight games, reaching the 30 mark five times over that stretch. Yes, Houston is an elite defensive team. That being said, it hasn't faced many teams like Arizona this season. In fact, the Cougars rank 92nd in the country in terms of opponents' average adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Take the over (6*). |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke OVER 137 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and Duke at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Duke's most recent game - an 85-76 win over Michigan State in the round of 32 last Sunday. That game got into the 160's despite about a four-minute stretch in the first half where neither the Blue Devils or Spartans could hit a shot. Few teams are playing at the same level as Duke offensively right now, maybe Gonzaga and Arizona would fit in that category. The Blue Devils have made good on 35, 32, 34, 32, 29, 24, 30 and 32 field goals in their last eight games. However, at the other end of the floor they've yielded 64+ field goal attempts in six straight games. I realize Texas Tech doesn't play at a fast pace - far from it, in fact. But I do think the Red Raiders will have plenty of opportunity to get loose offensively in this one. Note that Texas Tech has managed to knock down 28, 21, 27, 36 and 21 field goals in its last five games so some consistency to rely on there. With that being said, the Red Raiders shot just 21-of-59 last time out against Notre Dame. Keep in mind, they've averaged right around 27 made field goals per game after being held to 21 or fewer made field goals in their previous game this season (nine-game sample size). The question here really becomes whether the Duke offense can keep rolling against an elite Texas Tech defense. I'm confident it can, noting that while Texas Tech yields just 21-of-55 shooting away from home this season, it has given up eight made threes per contest, an area where the Blue Devils can thrive. Also consider we're dealing with a reasonably low total here - the lowest in a Duke game since it faced Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game - a contest that totalled 149 points. Take the over (8*). |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vanderbilt and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the pace has certainly been there, Xavier has seen its first two NIT matchups stay 'under' the total. I look for that to change on Tuesday as they host Vanderbilt in quarter-final action. The Musketeers game against Florida on Sunday certainly looked on track to fly 'over' the total early but Florida settled into a scoring drought and never really recovered, ultimately making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in a 72-56 Xavier win. Now we're being offered the lowest total we've seen in Xavier's three NIT games and I believe it will prove too low. The Musketeers have yielded 60+ FG attempts in five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-4 clip over that stretch. We know Vandy is comfortable pushing the pace, noting that it has hoisted up 62+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. In the only game where it didn't it still managed to score in the 80's against Alabama. On the flip side, the Commodores have yielded 67, 61, 60 and 56 FG attempts themselves over their last four games. Opponents have generally been 'filling it up' against them, knocking down 24, 30, 27 and 26 field goals over those four contests with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 along the way. For its part, Xavier checks in having made good on 35, 33, 24 and 26 field goals over its last four games, scoring 72+ points in all four games. We don't need a track meet to cash this ticket but I do think we'll see a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | 79-83 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC Upstate and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. USC Upstate enters this contest off consecutive 'over' results while South Alabama saw its opening round matchup stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. The visiting Spartans stunned heavily-favored Appalachian State to get to this game. In that contest, they knocked down 30-of-66 field goals - two numbers I don't expect them to approach against an incredibly stingy South Alabama squad on Monday. Note that the Jaguars have held opponents to an average of 21-of-56 shooting at home this season, including just six made three-pointers per game. On the flip side, South Alabama managed to put up 70 points in a narrow win over Southeast Louisiana in its tournament opener. Of course, it needed 61 field goal attempts to get there, making good on 28 of them. Note that the Jaguars don't generally look to push the pace. Prior to their last game, you would have to go all the way back to January 6th to find the last time they hoisted up more than 58 FG attempts in a game. Meanwhile, USC Upstate has held three of its last five opponents to 54 or fewer FG attempts. The only two opponents to top that mark over that stretch only managed to make good on 24 and 20 of those attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 142.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Michigan State saw its NCAA Tournament opener sail 'over' the total while Duke had its six-game 'over' streak come to an end in its rout of Cal-State Fullerton. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring second round affair between the Spartans and Blue Devils. Both offenses can absolutely 'fill it up' with Michigan State having made good on 27+ field goals in six of its last eight games and Duke knocking down 29+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. On the flip side, neither defense has really shown the ability or interest in slowing the pace, with MSU allowing 61, 64, 60, 57 and 59 field goal attempts over its last five games and Duke yielding 64+ FG attempts in each of its last five contests. The opportunities to run this score up should certainly be there on Sunday, noting that the Spartans allow an average of 59 FG attempts per game away from home with the Blue Devils yielding an average of 62 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. The only thing keeping me from going to a higher rating is the fact that both teams are fairly disciplined and we're unlikely to see a parade to the free throw line at any point in this one. Take the over (9*). |
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03-20-22 | Florida v. Xavier OVER 144 | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Xavier at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Xavier's NIT opener against Cleveland State. We probably deserved a better fate as the pace was certainly there to get that one 'over' the total. Xavier continues to push the pace at every opportunity, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. The Musketeers simply had an off night shooting the ball against Cleveland State, noting that they made good on just 24-of-62 FG attempts. Keep in mind, prior to that, Xavier had knocked down 33 and 35 field goals over its last two contests. Here, it will face a Florida squad that has allowed 29, 27, 30, 28, 24 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has gone 5-1 over that stretch. Like Xavier, Florida continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. The Gators have made good on 25+ field goals in six straight games. Xavier has certainly allowed the opposition to 'fill it up' lately, yielding 27+ made field goals in seven of its last eight games. Take the over (9*). |
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03-19-22 | New Orleans v. Portland OVER 153.5 | 73-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams will be looking to get out and run in their Basketball Classic opener on Saturday night. New Orleans hoisted up 62+ field goals in four of their last five games heading into this tournament. The Privateers bowed out of the Southland Conference Tournament thanks to a brutal shooting performance against Southeast Louisiana. I certainly expect them to bounce back here, noting that they knocked down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Portland squad that allowed 27, 24, 36, 23 and 31 made field goals over its last five games, showing no ability or interest in controlling their opponents tempo down the stretch. The Pilots have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Offensively, we saw Portland round into form down the stretch, making good on 34, 29, 24, 35, 27 and 25 field goals over its last six contests. Here at home this season, the Pilots make an average of 27 field goals per game including eight from beyond the arc, while also getting to the free throw line 22 times per contest. New Orleans should offer little in the way of resistance, allowing 28, 30, 26, 31, 25 and 26 field goals over its last six games. Away from home this season, the Privateers have yielded 28-of-62 shooting on average, including eight made threes per game. Like Portland, New Orleans also lived at the free throw line for much of the season, particularly away from home where it averages 25 free throw attempts per game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence OVER 134 | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Richmond and Providence at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams saw their opening round games stay 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total here. Richmond has actually seen consecutive 'unders', even if the pace in yesterday's upset win over Iowa would have usually dictated an 'over' result. The Spiders were certainly fortunate to catch Iowa on an off day shooting-wise, perhaps suffering from a letdown following its Big Ten Tournament championship run. The Hawkeyes got off 66 field goal attempts against Richmond but could only knock down 24 of them. It was a similar story in the A-10 Tournament final as Davidson shot 19-of-51 against the Spiders. Here, I'm anticipating a better shooting performance from Providence. The Friars had a poor day shooting the basketball yesterday as well, not all that surprising as teams adjust to playing in new venues in the tournament's opening weekend. Providence did hoist up 61 FG attempts but made good on just 24 of them. Note that prior to that, the Friars had seen each of their last four games in which they attempted 60+ field goals go 'over' the total. Going back to February 15th, Providence has attempted 62, 60, 68, 59, 56, 54, 65 and 61 field goals so it has certainly been making an effort to push the tempo. Like the Spiders, the Friars benefited from yesterday's opponent - normally explosive South Dakota State - shooting a woeful 22-of-57 from the field. Providence has yielded plenty of scoring opportunities in recent games, allowing 79, 59, 57, 61, 57 and 57 FG attempts over its last six contests. It's certainly worth noting that yesterday's game against the Jackrabbits also featured just 21 free throw attempts. The Spiders and Friars combine to average 39 free throw attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Tennessee at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. Michigan enters this game off three consecutive 'over' results while Tennessee posted an 'over' result of its own in its tournament-opening blowout win over Longwood. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the two power programs match up in round two. Tennessee should be able to frustrate the Michigan offense here, noting that the Vols have limited three of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts. Over that stretch they've given up just 19, 22, 16 and 20 made field goals. On the season, Tennessee yields just 22 made field goals per game away from home including only six made threes per contest. While Michigan ended up scoring 75 points in its tournament-opening win over Colorado State, it only got there thanks to shooting the lights out. The Wolverines actually only managed to get off 48 FG attempts in that contest. It was a similar story for the Vols, as they attempted 55 field goals against Longwood, making good on 33 of them. That certainly hasn't been the norm for Tennessee, however, noting that it has made good on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Vols attempted 60+ field goals, and even in that contest they only managed to knock down 27. Take the under (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144 | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and UTEP at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this tournament off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Saturday afternoon. Western Illinois is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, particularly away from home where it averages a whopping 66 field goal attempts per game. That's a stark contrast to what UTEP is accustomed to facing. I also feel the Miners could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here given WIU averages 10 more three-point attempts per game than UTEP has faced this season. While I do consider the Miners to be a quality defensive team, they weren't at their best down the stretch, allowing 23+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, despite playing at a reasonably slow pace (only one of their opponents over that stretch got off 60+ FG attempts and that game against Old Dominion went 'over' the total by double-digits). Of course, WIU is one of the weaker defensive teams in the nation. It checks in having allowed seven of its last 10 opponents to make good on 30+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-4 over that stretch. UTEP actually rounded into form offensively down the stretch, knocking down 25, 29, 22, 28 and 24 field goals over its last five contests. Again, that's more impressive when you consider the slow pace the Miners generally play at (they attempted more than 57 field goals just once over that five-game stretch). I'm not convinced the opening round of 'The Basketball Classic' is the time and place for a defensive slugfest. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 149 | 93-86 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Baylor at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in North Carolina's first game of this tournament - a stunning rout of Marquette on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Tar Heels face a much tougher challenge in the form of the defending national champion Baylor Bears. Baylor has allowed 28 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games. The only opponent to reach that 28 mark was Iowa State and that game still totalled only 143 points. Note that Baylor checks in having held its last three opponents to just 59, 51 and 57 field goal attempts. North Carolina shot the lights out against Marquette, making good on 34-of-74 FG attempts. It went off from three-point range in particular but now goes up against a Bears squad that guards the perimeter fiercely, allowing only six made threes per contest away from home this season. The Bears knocked down 31-of-54 FG attempts in their NCAA Tournament opener against Norfolk State. Note that prior to that they had made good on 28 or fewer field goals in eight straight contests. For its part, North Carolina has allowed 27 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games overall and also sends opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game away from home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). |
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03-18-22 | Miami-FL v. USC OVER 139.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and USC at 3:10 pm et on Friday. While it met its demise at the hands of Duke in the ACC Tournament semi-final round, there's no denying Miami heads into this tournament playing well, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find another team performing as efficiently offensively heading in. Going back to February 12th, the Canes have knocked down 28+ made field goals in nine consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' cashed in six of those nine contests. On the flip side, Miami has allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Canes have shown no ability or interest in controlling their opponents' tempo and yielded 28+ made field goals in four of their last five contests. USC got bogged down a bit in the Pac-12 Tournament, seeing its two games stay 'under' the total. The Trojans have yielded 60+ FG attempts in eight of their last 10 games and unlike a lot of their opponents in the Pac-12, the Canes figure to take advantage here. USC wasn't able to get out and run as much as it would have liked to in its last few games but we know that it can, and Miami should afford it that opportunity here. Prior to a poor performance against a terrific UCLA defense, the Trojans had made good on 33, 26, 27, 25 and 25 field goals over their previous five contests. Take the over (9*). |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | 60-80 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Delaware and Villanova at 2:45 pm et on Friday. Delaware heads into this tournament on a five-game 'under' streak while Villanova has posted three consecutive 'under' results. I expect that trend to continue here. The Blue Hens may have ran the table in the CAA Tournament but you could argue that they limp into the NCAA Tournament from an offensive standpoint. You would have to go back to February 24th to find the last time they knocked down more than 26 field goals in a game. That was an outlier game that totalled a whopping 195 points against Charleston. All told, Delaware made good on 24 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight games. While the Blue Hens offense has lagged with the games getting tougher, their defensive has thrived. They check in having allowed 23 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. In fact, they've yielded fewer than 60 field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. Given the way Villanova plays, this one could very well have an 'old school basketball' kind of feel. The Wildcats have allowed 24, 26, 25, 20, 27, 22 and 19 made field goals over their last seven games, giving up 66 points or less in five of those contests. While Villanova can be an effective, efficient offensive team, it hasn't been lately, making good on 21, 23, 30, 20, 23 and 19 field goals over its last six games. It got off 57 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. I'm not convinced that Delaware is the team to really allow the Wildcats to open things up, nor do I think 'Nova is all that interested in that type of affair here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Vermont plus the points over Arkansas at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. There's obviously a lot of mental gymnastics that need to take place to figure out where teams from completely different conferences (and in turn level of opposition) stand as we head into the opening round matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Here, I do like Vermont's chances against what I consider to be an overrated Arkansas squad. The Catamounts absolutely laid waste to the opposition in the America East Conference down the stretch. Over their last eight games they've allowed more than 20 field goals in a game only three times (23 was the high-water mark over that stretch), limiting four of those opponents to 19 or less. I'm not sure their offense gets enough credit. They head into the NCAA Tournament having knocked down 28, 37, 26 and 37 field goals over their last four games, topping out at 63 attempts over that stretch. In other words, they're comfortable playing at a fast pace while also severely limiting their opponents scoring opportunities. Arkansas might just have peaked from mid-February into early-March, culminating with two near-perfect performances in victories over Kentucky and LSU. In three games since, we've seen the Razorbacks make good on just 23, 24 and 23 field goals. Meanwhile, they've been uneven defensively, allowing 30, 26, 23, 18 and 31 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't really shown all that much interest in controlling their opponents' tempo, yielding 61+ FG attempts in three of their last five games. While Arkansas will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper pick, I expect it to get all it can handle against an experienced and talented Vermont squad on Thursday. Take Vermont (9*). |
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03-17-22 | Marquette v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and North Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams lost out in their respective conference tournaments in games that stayed 'under' the total. In the case of North Carolina, it heads into the NCAA Tournament off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold as they meet up in the first round of the tournament on Thursday afternoon. Marquette has certainly endured an uneven season to this point but one thing we know is that the Golden Eagles can 'fill it up', having made good on 30, 35, 23, 32, 29 and 23 field goals over their last six games despite not all of those games being played at all that fast of a pace. Here, we are likely to see an up-tempo affair and I'm confident the Eagles can thrive in that type of environment. Of concern, however, is the fact that Marquette has been lit up for 28+ made field goals in four of its last five contests, with no ability whatsoever to dictate their opponents' tempo over that stretch, allowing Depaul and St. John's in particular to get off 67 and 70 field goal attempts, respectively. Put the Tar Heels into that sort of contest and they'll undoubtedly hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. North Carolina went down swinging in the ACC Tournament, attempting 60 field goals but simply not hitting nearly enough in its loss to Virginia Tech. Note that the Tar Heels have knocked down 29, 29, 33, 25 and 22 field goals over their last five contests. Over that stretch they attempted fewer than 60 field goals only once, getting up to 65+ in that department on three occasions. Outside of a very limited (offensively) Virginia squad, UNC's opponents have had little trouble scoring, knocking down 27, 25, 31, 34, 18 and 25 field goals over its last six games. Four of the Tar Heels last five opponents scored 72+ points with the lone outlier being Virginia, as I mentioned. These two teams actually have a bit of recent history having met last February in a game that totalled 153 points. That game as played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating here and it's also worth noting that the two teams combined to make just 14 three-pointers (they average 17 per game combined this season) and the Tar Heels shot a miserable 25-of-60 from the field. We've seen an adjustment to the total (that game saw a closing total of 145.5) but I'm not convinced it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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03-17-22 | Norfolk State +21.5 v. Baylor | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State plus the points over Baylor at 2 pm et on Thursday. Baylor has obviously played a lot of basketball since the start of last season, ultimately going all the way to take down last year's National Championship with a memorable NCAA Tournament run. To me, it seemed like the Bears wore down as the regular season went on this year. Note that they check into their first round NCAA Tourney matchup against Norfolk State having gone 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. To find the last time Baylor knocked down 30+ field goals in a game you would have to go all the way back to January 31st against West Virginia. Even in that game, the Bears only won by four points, failing to sniff out a cover of the 13-point spread. While the Bears are known for their defense, they were by no means a shut down unit in that regard down the stretch. They enter this tourney having allowed 26+ made field goals in five of their last seven contests. Also notable is the fact that they yielded plenty of scoring opportunities, giving up 62, 62, 70, 60, 59 and 51 FG attempts over their last six games. Norfolk State obviously represents a step down in class for the Bears. But let's not completely write off this Spartans squad. They showed the ability to get out and run when they needed to over the course of the season and check in after hitting 29, 31, 21, 26 and 24 field goals over their last five games. Even in the 21 and 24 FG performances they still put up 72+ points on both occasions (note that they attempted exactly 50 FG's in both of those games). Norfolk State was certainly locked-in defensively down the stretch, yielding 23 or fewer made field goals in each of their last six games, despite five of those opponents getting off 59+ FG attempts. I'm not convinced there's enough runway for the Bears to win this one in a true rout. Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers OVER 131 | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 60 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Rutgers at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. It might be easy to forget due to its early exit in the ACC Tournament but Notre Dame enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 7-0-1 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Rutgers was brought to an early demise in the Big Ten Tournament with an 'over' result against Iowa, snapping a four-game 'under' streak in the process. Notre Dame certainly 'filled it up' down the stretch, making good on 27+ field goals in six of its final eight games. Despite the pace not being there over the Irish's last two games, they still managed to knock down 27 field goals in each contest, putting up 78 and 80 points against Pitt and Virginia Tech. On the flip side, we've seen the Irish allow 36, 29, 26, 21, 28, 23 and 31 made field goals over their last seven games. The two outliers were 21 and 23 against two weak opponents in Georgia Tech and Pitt. Rutgers should pose a significantly tougher challenge here. The Scarlet Knights haven't posted eye-popping offensive numbers by any means, largely due to a relatively slow pace in most games. They still managed to make good on 27+ field goals in four of their last seven games and I do think this is a game where we see that pace pick up a bit (Notre Dame has yielded opponents 60+ field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games). Despite the slow tempo, Rutgers has allowed 26, 27, 23, 23, 18 and 26 made field goals over its last six games with the outlier coming in what amounted to a defensive slog against Penn State - an opponent that certainly attracts that type of contest. Neither team guards the perimeter all that well with Notre Dame allowing 8-of-20 shooting from three-point range away from home and Rutgers yielding 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from Piscataway. Take the over (10*). |