Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Mississippi State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Most bettors will likely back Mississippi State by default at virtually a pk'em price in this one as it comes from a power conference in the SEC while Louisiana Tech is out of the far less respected C-USA. I like the Bulldogs' (La. Tech) chances of staging the minor upset, however, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season and match up well here. It's worth noting that Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive eighth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 11th in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. While Mississippi State has the better offense, I do think that Louisiana Tech, which comes in having scored 70+ points in six of its last seven games, can hang. Note that Mississippi State ranks just 161st in the country in steals per possession and conversely, ranks a miserable 319th in turnovers per possession on offense. With Mississippi State ranking 248th in the country in possessions per game, it isn't going to overwhelm Louisiana Tech with its pace here either. Louisiana State checks in as a positive momentum play having gone 10-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is just 1-9 ATS following a close victory by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.1 points per game in that spot. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Oregon State at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. We won one of our big ticket plays backing Oregon State in its win over Oklahoma State last round but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Beavers here as they go up against Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are by no means a 'Cinderella' team. They've turned in a tremendous season so far, winning 26 of 30 games, leaning on their wealth of talent and experience to reach the Sweet 16, even if few gave them a chance against Illinois last Sunday. This is a team that is certainly comfortable being in the 'favorite' role, having been the front-runner in the Missouri Valley Conference for much of the season. If any team is going to suffer a letdown here, it's not going to be the Ramblers off the upset win over one-seed Illinois, instead I feel that Oregon State might have a tough time getting its emotions running as high as it did against 'name' programs like Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Beavers are undoubtedly deserving of respect as they've gotten hot at the right time, parlaying a Pac-12 Tournament championship run into two victories here in the NCAA Tournament. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a team that entered the tourney ranked 274th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 190th in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention its dreadful 298th ranking in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Like Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 316th in the country in possessions per game. But the Ramblers do it much better, entering the tournament ranked 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and 25th in floor percentage. By contrast, the Beavers sat outside of the top-100 in both of those categories. The Pac-12 is being given plenty of respect now with four teams reaching the Sweet 16. However, noting that Loyola-Chicago has gone 10-3 ATS when playing away from home off three or more consecutive wins this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.1 points on average, while also going 15-4 ATS off a double-digit victory, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game in that situation, I'll gladly back the Ramblers laying a relatively short number here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over LSU at 1:45 pm et on Saturday. LSU enjoyed a tremendous run in the SEC Tournament, reaching the final before falling by a single point against Alabama. The Tigers were largely inconsistent away from their home floor over the course of the season, however, going 7-7 SU and ATS while allowing north of 78 points per game. St. Bonaventure is an experienced team built for postseason success and we certainly saw that play out in the Atlantic-10 Tournament as the Bonnies defeated VCU to bring home the championship. I'm confident in the Bonnies ability to run their offense in this matchup, noting that LSU ranks 199th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 226th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. The Tigers also rank a miserable 258th in block percentage. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure ranks ninth in opponents floor percentage and 54th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Bonnies also check in a very respectable 60th in extra scoring chances per game - by contrast, LSU is 154th in that department. As we saw in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers thrive in an up-tempo environment but I don't think the Bonnies will be interested in trading baskets on Saturday. Note that St. Bonaventure ranks 329th in the country in possessions per game and I'm confident it can use that slow pace to its advantage here. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Texas Tech at 1:45 pm et on Friday. In what has the potential to be a very low-scoring game, I'll grab all the points I can get with Utah State on Friday afternoon. The Aggies, of course, fell in the Mountain West Tournament championship against a terrific San Diego State team by double-digits in front of a national audience on CBS last Saturday. With that result fresh in the minds of a lot of bettors, I can understand Texas Tech being installed as a considerable favorite here. With that being said, the Aggies have been a 'tough out' all season long and I expect that to hold true here today. While Texas Tech ranks highly in most offensive categories, including just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency and the top-20 in floor percentage, it will be up against a very capable Aggies defense that ranks an impressive second in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 15th in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's certainly worth noting that Utah State ranks third in the country in total rebounding percentage compared to Texas Tech, which checks in 97th. The Aggies possess an active defense that ranks 13th in block percentage as well and sit 29th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Both teams are comfortable playing at a relatively slow pace - again in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring, with both teams capable of knocking down their free throws, I look for this one going down to the wire. Take Utah State (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Drake at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. All of the analytics seemingly point to Drake in this First Four matchup on Thursday night so it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs have flipped over to the favorite role. After a subpar showing in the AAC Tournament, however, I like the way this game sets up for Wichita State. Drake got off to a red hot start this season but injuries ultimately took their toll and the Bulldogs were never really able to regain that magic late, ultimately falling in the MVC Championship Game against Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs absolutely tore through their non-conference schedule but it was littered with beatable teams. Their season-opening win at Kansas State may have looked somewhat impressive at the time but the Wildcats turned out to be a Big 12 doormat. Meanwhile, Wichita State hung tough in key non-conference games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, going 1-1-1 ATS. The Shockers also split a pair of matchups with eventual AAC champion Houston, going 2-0 ATS in the process. So many bettors were burned by Wichita State in its upset loss in the AAC Tournament semi-finals. We actually cashed a ticket fading them in the quarter-final round against South Florida last Friday (but lost with them on the ML against Cincinnati in the semis). Even with Drake getting healthier in time for this game (ShanQuan Hemphill is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since February), I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Illinois has absolutely lit it up through two games at this tournament, scoring 90 and 82 points in wins over Rutgers and Iowa. It faces a much tougher defensive challenge on Sunday, however, in the form of a streaking Ohio State squad. The Buckeyes limited a terrific Michigan team to 67 points on 35% shooting yesterday, and the Wolverines only got to that number thanks to a desperate late scoring flurry. While Illinois obviously poses a stiff test, the Buckeyes did hold the Illini to 73 points despite allowing them to shoot 52% from the field in a losing effort just last weekend. I certainly don't anticipate Illinois shooting better than 50% today with a Big Ten Championship on the line. Illinois gave up 71 points in yesterday's win but that was the first time it allowed north of 70 points since February 23rd against Michigan State. Don't count on Ohio State shooting better than 50% from three-point range again today. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -7.5 | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Georgetown at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. While Georgetown has been a terrific story in the Big East Tournament I expect its magic to run out on Saturday as it runs into a streaking Creighton squad. We've picked our spots wisely with Creighton lately, fading them in their 12-point loss at Villanova on March 3rd and then backing them in last Saturday's 20-point rout of Butler. Credit the Blue Jays for winning a rare low-scoring contest by a 59-56 score against Connecticut yesterday. Here, I look for the Jays offense to once again get rolling and ultimately overwhelm the Hoyas. Georgetown has drew a somewhat favorable schedule this week, first facing an average Marquette squad before upsetting an undermanned Villanova team and then beating Seton Hall in what was virtually a toss-up game. This is a much tougher matchup for Georgetown, noting that it split a pair of meetings with Creighton this season but dropping a 15-point decision the last time they met. Take Creighton (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and San Diego State at 6 pm et on Saturday. This has all the makings of one of Saturday's most entertaining games but that certainly doesn't mean we should expect a track meet. Both teams are capable of playing lock down defense although San Diego State is coming off an uncharacteristically high-scoring affair in last night's 77-70 win over Nevada. I expect a return to 'normal' here on Saturday. Utah State had little trouble getting past a good Colorado State team last night, allowing just 50 points in a double-digit victory. The Aggies check in eighth in the country in defensive rating. For their part, the Aztecs rank 11th in defensive rating. When these two teams met back on January 16th they combined to score 123 points. This feels like it could be a 'first to 60 wins' type of game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Iowa v. Illinois -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Iowa has generally been a 'public' team all season so perhaps it's not surprising that we're dealing with such a short pointspread here on Saturday. Few teams in the country are playing as well as Illinois right now, howver, and I look for the Illini to take care of business and advance to the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. While Iowa was involved in a hard-fought battle against Wisconsin last night (we won with the 'under'), Illinois had a glorified scrimmage against Rutgers, winning by 22 points. Despite barely breaking a sweat, the Illini still managed to score 90 points, which speaks to just how well they're playing right now. The lone regular season matchup between these two teams was decided by five points with Illinois prevailing. I look for the Illini to improve on that winning margin here today. Take Illinois (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Cincinnati v. Wichita State -170 | 60-59 | Loss | -170 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State (moneyline) over Cincinnati at 3 pm et on Saturday. Short on time so I'll keep my analysis short for this one. The Shockers are the better team and they should take advantage of a Cincinnati squad that 'upset' SMU yesterday with the Mustangs coming off a one month layoff due to Covid. Shockers were nearly upset by South Florida yesterday (and we won with the Bulls) but here I expect them to turn in a much more complete performance. Take Wichita State (moneyline) 10*. |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan -6 | 68-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Ohio State at 1 pm et on Saturday. It took them a while to get going but once they did, Michigan had little trouble brushing aside Maryland in yesterday's 13-point quarter-final victory. While the Wolverines will face a tougher challenge in Ohio State on Saturday, I expect them to be up for it. The Buckeyes built a big early lead but couldn't hold it in the second half and ultimately needed overtime to get past Purdue yesterday. It has certainly been an uneven stretch for Ohio State as it has won just twice in its last six games overall. I simply feel there's a class difference in this matchup that isn't being properly reflected in the line. After a relatively close matchup in the regular season (Michigan won 92-87) look for the Wolverines to post a convincing victory on Saturday. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Nevada at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Aztecs at a bit of a discount here thanks to Nevada's upset win over Boise State yesterday combined with San Diego State's narrow escape against Wyoming. Keep in mind, the Aztecs were favored by double-digits in both regular season matchups with Nevada. Both games were close but I look for the Wolf Pack to run out of gas and ultimately for the Aztecs to pull away for a convincing victory tonight. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country and that's what it takes to win a tough conference tournament like the Mountain West. Note that the Aztecs allow just 59.6 points per game away from home this season. Compare that with Nevada, which gives up north of 72 ppg away from home. San Diego State is a terrific positive momentum play here, noting that it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.7 points off consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Hammering down further, the Aztecs are 13-5 ATS and outscore opponents by 13.3 points per game when playing away from home following three or more wins in a row over the last two seasons. Nevada hasn't fared particularly well in revenge situations, allowing 79.8 points per game when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Wichita State at 12 noon et on Friday. While it does check in as the one-seed and has already defeated South Florida twice this season, I think Wichita State is going to play a near perfect game to cover this lofty pointspread. I'm just not convinced we'll see that peak level of performance from the Shockers here. I like the fact that South Florida doesn't need to rely on jacking up threes to stay competitive in a game like this with the Bulls ranking in the top-third in the country in percentage of points from two-pointers this season at north of 52%. I also like that the Bulls have a significant advantage on the glass, ranking an impressive 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (they also check in a respectable 110th in defensive rebounding percentage). Wichita State isn't going to overwhelm South Florida with pressure defense either, noting that it ranks 274th in the country in steals per possession. USF shot miserably in both regular season meetings with Wichita State yet still managed to take one of those games down to the wire losing by only five points. Expect another competitive affair today. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. I have no problem laying the points with Colorado here as it looks to avenge a stunning nine-point loss suffered as a nine-point favorite at Cal back on February 13th. Cal staged another upset last night, blowout Stanford out of the water as an 8.5-point underdog. I don't expect history to repeat itself here, however. Note that Cal has been outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Colorado has outscored opponents by an average margin of 14.1 points as a favorite this season, including a 29-point rout of Cal back on January 14th. The Buffaloes clearly looked past the Bears in their most recent meeting but I don't expect to see them get caught flat-footed again here. Take Colorado (10*). |
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03-11-21 | UNLV v. Utah State -10 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over UNLV at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Aggies in what amounts to a road game against UNLV in Mountain West quarter-final action on Thursday night. Note that the Aggies have gone 8-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, winning those games by a whopping 26.9 points per game. In fact, over the last two seasons, Utah State has outscored opponents by 23 ppg as a double-digit favorite so it is certainly comfortable in this situation. UNLV posted a 28-point rout of Air Force yesterday but prior to that had gone 3-10 ATS over its last 10 games. The Aggies will undoubtedly have their guard up after only managing to split two games against UNLV during the regular season with the loss coming in a bit of a hangover spot following a tough home loss against Colorado State. Take Utah State (10*). |
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03-11-21 | Mississippi State +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Thursday. This looks like a case of undervalued vs. overvalued as Mississippi State has posted a winning ATS record this season while Kentucky checks in seven games below .500 from an ATS perspective. Yes, the Wildcats have owned this series over the years, but if there was ever a time for the Bulldogs to get a win in this series, this would be it. We actually won with Kentucky in its most recent game - a rout of South Carolina this past Saturday. That came at home. Away from home, the Wildcats have gone 4-9 this season, outscored by right around two points per game. Note that Kentucky has gone 0-7 ATS after an ATS win this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State checks in 9-1 ATS coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive margin of 12.8 points on average in that situation. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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03-11-21 | Ball State v. Toledo -8 | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toledo minus the points over Ball State at 11 am et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Toledo in this MAC Tournament matchup as the Rockets and Cardinals play each other for a second straight game. Toledo took the regular season finale between these two teams by 19 points last week, avenging a stunning 81-67 loss as a nine-point favorite on the road earlier this season. Note that Toledo averaged 84.8 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 12 points in conference play this season. The Rockets have been a solid positive momentum play having gone 12-5 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.9 points coming off an ATS win this season. Meanwhile, Ball State suffered a significant drop-off in offensive production away from home during the regular season, averaging just 69.7 points per game. Toledo, on the other hand, held its own, averaging 79.9 ppg away from home. Revenge hasn't really worked in the Cardinals favor in recent years as they've gone 2-10 ATS, outscored by an average margin of 7.7 points when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Take Toledo (10*). |
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03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming -11.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over San Jose State at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I suspect most bettors may shy away from a middling 13-10 Wyoming squad laying double-digits in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament on Wednesday afternoon. We won't hesitate to back the Cowboys, however, as they should be able to take their frustrations out on an awful San Jose State squad. The Spartans have just five wins to their credit this season. Two of those victories came against non-Division I opponents. The other three came against 5-19 Air Force (two wins) and 6-15 New Mexico. This will be their first matchup with Wyoming this season with the Cowboys having won 13 of the last 14 matchups. Credit Wyoming for hanging in there against a tough Mountain West schedule this season, winning the games it should and even staging a few upsets along the way (it posted outright underdog wins against Fresno State, Nevada and UNLV). Note that San Jose State was outscored by a whopping 20.4 points per game away from home during the regular season. Wyoming was far more respectable in that regard, outscored by just 3.7 points per game. In an underdog role, San Jose State has been outscored by 17.9 points per game this season. The Spartans have been an excellent negative momentum fade having gone 7-17 ATS, outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points when playing away from home following two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, as is the case here. This is probably the only winnable game for Wyoming in this tournament, and I expect the Cowboys to take full advantage. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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03-10-21 | CS Sacramento v. Northern Colorado -2 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Colorado minus the points over Sacramento State at 11 am et on Wednesday. I'll lay the short number with Northern Colorado in this early start matchup in Idaho on Wednesday. Both teams are coming off close games last time out with Sacramento State upsetting Montana State 74-73 as a three-point underdog and Northern Colorado falling 60-59 as a 10-point underdog at Weber State. While there's not a lot separating these two teams from an overall record perspective, I do feel that Northern Colorado is the superior squad. The Bears have been a terrific bounce-back team, particularly away from home. They've gone 9-1 ATS when playing away from home off of one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points in that situation. On the flip side, they've averaged 75 points per game and outscored opponents by 9.1 points on average after posting two ATS wins in their last three games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Sacramento State has been outscored by an average margin of 7.8 points when playing away from home after posting one or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Take Northern Colorado (10*). |
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03-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over Wake Forest at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a ticket fading Wake Forest in its most recent game - a double-digit home loss against Georgia Tech last Friday night. The Demon Deacons have all but packed up the tent for the 2020-21 season, losers of six straight games both SU and ATS. Note that Wake Forest has won just once in 10 tries away from its home court this season, outscored by an average margin of 12.3 points. This is a revenge spot after Notre Dame took the regular season meeting by 21 points but Wake hasn't been anything special in that situation, outscored by an average margin of 6.6 points when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Irish managed to pull up their socks and bring an end to their four-game losing streak with a very impressive 10-point victory over a quality Florida State squad on Saturday. That was the type of victory that should produce a positive carry-over effect here. While the Irish went 4-9 on the road during the regular season, they were actually outscored by an average margin of only 2.2 points, winning the majority of the games they should (some in blowout fashion) while losing those where they stepped up in class. This game certainly qualifies as the former and I'm confident we'll see the Irish prevail by a convincing margin. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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03-09-21 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -3 | 79-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Miami at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers in this matchup of two teams coming off disappointing ACC campaigns. Miami did end its regular season on a positive note with an 80-76 win over Boston College. Of course, the fact that the Canes needed everything they had in the tank just two in that game over a bottom-feeding Eagles squad wasn't all that encouraging. Note that Miami has lost 13 of 15 games, outscored by an average margin of 9.6 points per game when coming off a conference win over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh ran up against a very tough conference schedule from the start of February on and while it went 2-6 SU it did hold its own against the number, going 4-3-1 ATS. The Panthers will have the best player on the floor in this matchup in Justin Champagnie, who finished as the runner-up for ACC Player of the Year. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Oakland | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Oakland at 9:30 pm et on Monday. Given the discrepancy between these two teams overall records, with North Kentucky owning a considerable edge in that regard, it may be a little odd to see the Norse priced near a pk'em in this matchup. I can understand the logic behind it, however, with this game being played on a neutral court and Northern Kentucky having posted a losing record away from home, not to mention the fact that Oakland has been scoring at will lately, putting up 80+ points in five straight and seven of its last nine games overall. With that being said, I like the way this Horizon League Tournament semi-final matchup sets up for the Norse. NKU has outscored opponents by 5.3 points per game on average after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons. The Norse have also fared well as a positive momentum play coming off a win by six points or less in their last game, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Oakland has been outscored by nearly 10 points per game in an underdog role this season. When coming off an ATS win, the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in their next contest. While this has been a series that has featured plenty of close games, Northern Kentucky has managed to win four of the last five meetings over the last three seasons. Take Northern Kentucky (10*). |
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03-08-21 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -17.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Monday. This number may seem fairly high based on the heated rivalry these two teams have been a part of over the years but that rivalry has cooled recently with Gonzaga evolving into an elite National Championship contender and St. Mary's taking a step back. Gonzaga swept the regular season series between these two teams with relative ease, but did only manage to go 1-1 ATS, helping to keep the number in check here. Note that the Zags actually enter this game off back-to-back ATS losses. That's not really a bad thing as the Bulldogs have averaged 90.9 points per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 23.3 points when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. They've also been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 90.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 21.4 points after scoring 85+ points in two straight games over the last two seasons. St. Mary's is a long-term loser in an underdog role, going 91-124 ATS and has been outscored by 15.6 points on average when revenging two straight double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-07-21 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Drake at 2 pm et on Sunday. I think the fact that Drake scored 71 points in yesterday's thrilling victory over Missouri State, not to mention the fact that it beat Loyola-Chicago 51-50 the last time these two teams met last month is giving Bulldogs backers a big of a false sense of security catching a seemingly generous helping of points in this one. Keep in mind, prior to that one-point win over the Ramblers the Bulldogs had been routed by 27 points against Loyola-Chicago the previous day. A letdown was certainly in order for Loyola as it may have taken a second win for granted against the Bulldogs. Drake isn't the same team it was earlier in the season, not without two of its best players in Roman Penn and ShanQuan Hemphill. Of course those two absences have been factored into this line but worth noting nonetheless. While Drake certainly needs this win a little more to reach the NCAA Tournament, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. Loyola-Chicago has been locked in for weeks, months even as it has its sights set on a MVC Championship and potentially a deep NCAA Tournament run. Note that the Ramblers are an excellent positive momentum play here, having gone 7-1 ATS after an ATS win as a double-digit favorite this season, outscoring the opposition by a wide 17.9-point margin on average. They've got an excellent track record as a favorite this season, going 15-7 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.9 points in those games. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Butler at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won by fading Creighton in its most recent game but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Blue Jays as they return home for their regular season finale against Butler. The Blue Jays will have revenge on their minds after suffering a narrow loss on the road against Butler earlier this season. It's not as if Creighton needs any extra motivation here after it played worse than the final score indicated in Wednesday's loss at Villanova. That brought an end to a winless two-game road trip for the Blue Jays after they had fallen against Xavier as well. Home cooking should serve them well as they've gone 10-3 in the host role, outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points per game. Note that they're 12-3 ATS when returning home off a game as a road underdog over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just under 18 points in that situation. Butler checks in a woeful 1-9 on the road this season where it has been outscored by around nine points per game. Take Creighton (10*). |
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03-06-21 | Illinois v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
CBB TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Illinois at 4 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to make the case for Illinois as the better team in this matchup, especially when you consider current form. The Illini are coming off three straight wins, including back-to-back of the outright underdog variety on the road against Wisconsin and Michigan. The win at Michigan was as dominant as they come as the Illini jumped out to a big early lead and never looked back in a 23-point rout, and it came in front of a national audience. Ohio State checks in down-trodden off three straight losses but two of those could have gone either way and all three came against tough opponents in Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. Here, the Buckeyes have an opportunity to regain their footing with a win over an elite opponent on their home floor to wrap up the regular season and I look for them to do just that. Note that Ohio State is still 10-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by more than 10 points per game. They already have a feather in their cap in this particular matchup, having defeated Illinois by six points on the road back in mid-January. Interestingly, Illinois has gone 0-6 ATS when revenging an upset loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 9.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide margin of 15.3 points on average. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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03-06-21 | Indiana State +10 v. Loyola-Chicago | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana State plus the points over Loyola-Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Indiana State on Saturday as it looks to give Loyola-Chicago all it can handle in its MVC Tournament semi-final matchup. The Sycamores got off to a slow start this season but that had a lot to do with a front-loaded conference schedule that saw them face Drake, Missouri State and Loyola-Chicago each twice before the second week of January was over. Indiana State did manage to split its two-game set against Loyola-Chicago, winning the first game by five before dropping the second by 10. Here, I simply feel that the Ramblers will have a tough time extending the margin in a game where possessions will likely be at a minimum (ISU ranks 309th and Loyola ranks 340th in the nation in team possessions per game this season). The Ramblers opponent yesterday, Southern Illinois, wasn't able to knock down enough shots to stay within arm's reach (the Salukis shot 40% from the field and made just 4-of-18 three-point attempts). I do think that the Sycamores can do a better job here today, even after a subpar shooting effort that still resulted in a double-digit win over Evansville yesterday. Take Indiana State (9*). |
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03-06-21 | Georgetown v. Connecticut -9.5 | 82-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Georgetown at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll keep things simple here and fade Georgetown coming off an outright upset win over Xavier at home on Tuesday night. The Hoyas have been frustratingly inconsistent this season going 9-11 overall, including a 2-5 road record. Connecticut is a solid positive momentum play here coming off three straight double-digit victories but not good enough to suddenly become complacent in this winnable home game to wrap up the regular season. Note that the Huskies current three-game winning streak began with a 13-point win over Georgetown. Note that the SU winner has gone a perfect 15-0 ATS in UConn's last 15 games. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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03-05-21 | Colorado State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Wolf Pack on Friday night as they look to end Colorado State's five-game winning streak and also halt their own losing skid at two games following consecutive losses at Utah State. Colorado State checks in 17-4 on the season but really what have the Rams done lately? Since the start of February they've gone 5-0 with a number of cancellations thrown in the mix. Those five wins came against 6-15 New Mexico, 5-19 Air Force and 12-10 Wyoming (the two victories over Wyoming came by a combined 11 points as both games could have gone either way). Nevada is coming off three straight two-game sets against the likes of UNLV, Boise State and aforementioned Utah State. The Wolf Pack certainly held their own over that stretch, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. Here, Nevada looks to improve to 7-0 ATS over the last three seasons after allowing 75 points or more in its last two games. The last six times that situation has come up the Wolf Pack have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.7 points. Nevada has taken the last two meetings between these two teams on this floor and I look for it to make it three straight here on Friday night. Take Nevada (10*). |
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03-05-21 | Monmouth -5 v. Rider | 65-62 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Monmouth minus the points over Rider at 4 pm et on Friday. Monmouth needed overtime to get past Rider in the first game of this back-to-back set but I believe the potential is there for the Hawks to run the Broncs out of the gym on Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, Monmouth ranks an impressive 13th in the nation in pace rating this season. The Hawks haven't necessarily been able to convert that up-tempo play into a ton of offensive success as they shoot just 42.9% as a team, but that's still better than the Broncs 42.5% and Rider checks in ranked T198th in terms of pace rating. I also like the Hawks active defense as they rank 36th in the country in steals per game. By contrast, Rider sits 298th in that category. The Broncs rode an uncharacteristically strong three-point shooting game in keeping close with the Hawks yesterday, nearly doubling their season average in terms of threes made per game. Should their outside shooting cool off today they're ripe for a blowout in my opinion. Take Monmouth (10*). |
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03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Texas gained plenty of early season notoriety by getting off to an incredible 10-1 start, including road wins over Kansas and West Virginia. Since then, however, the Longhorns have gone just 2-2 on the road, with the two victories coming against bad Kansas State and Iowa State teams. Oklahoma also got off to a tremendous start this season, only falling on hard times recently, dropping its last three games. That skid started with an embarrassing loss at Kansas State before suffering consecutive setbacks against rival Oklahoma State. The Sooners certainly realize the importance of getting it right here in their regular season finale and know they're going to get Texas' best punch after upsetting the Longhorns by a single point on the road earlier this season. Keep in mind, Oklahoma is 10-2 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by over 15 points per game. After scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games this season, the Sooners have outscored opponents by an average margin of 12.3 points in their next game. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4.5 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Creighton at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Creighton as a home underdog the last time these two teams met but I won't hesitate to go the other way as the Blue Jays and Wildcats renew hostilities on Wednesday night. Creighton ran into a roadblock over the weekend, suffering an eight-point loss at Xavier. That brought an end to its four-game winning streak. Villanova is just 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and coming off a stunning double-digit loss on the road against Butler. That leads me to believe we'll see a peak performance here as it looks to rebound before closing out the regular season with a stop in Providence. Note that the Wildcats have outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.5 points at home seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-03-21 | NC State v. Notre Dame -2 | 80-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over N.C. State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Irish as they look to snap their three-game losing streak and also bring an end to N.C. State's four-game winning streak on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, each of Notre Dame's last three losses came on the road. Note that N.C. State has been outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points as a road underdog of six points or less this season. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has outscored opponents by an average of 5.3 points when coming off at least two losses in a row over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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03-03-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse -2.5 | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse minus the points over Clemson at 5 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Orange as a positive momentum play here as they look to build on Monday's two-point win over North Carolina. I like the matchup here, even with Clemson coming in hot off five straight wins. Note that the Tigers are a miserable 2-13 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of eight points in that situation. Syracuse is an outstanding 12-1 straight-up at home this season and we're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread as it looks to improve to 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Clemson at the Carrier Dome. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Michigan State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The Hoosiers picked a bad time to go ice cold, dropping each of their last three games heading into Tuesday night's showdown in East Lansing. I don't expect them to go away quietly, however, and believe they can win this game outright, but will certainly grab the points of insurance. Michigan State had won three games in a row before dropping an 18-point decision at Maryland last time out. Note that the Spartans went to Indiana and defeated the Hoosiers by seven points back on February 20th, but that was their first win in four tries in this series. I simply feel that Michigan State is being asked to lay too many points here given the cracks it has shown defensively down the stretch, and going up against what will be a highly-motivated Indiana squad. Take Indiana (10*). |
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03-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Virginia OVER 124 | Top | 51-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Virginia at 6 pm et on Monday. There's no question, Virginia is more known for its defensive prowess than its offensive exploits, but the fact is the Cavaliers enter Monday's game riding a three-game 'over' streak and the 'over' has cashed at a 7-3-1 clip when they play at home this season. Miami has lost five games in a row and should throw everything it has at the Cavaliers in this spot. Note that the Hurricanes haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since back on January 19th and 24th. Since then, the 'over' has gone 5-3 in their last eight games. Also note that the 'over' is 16-6 when Virginia plays at home off an upset loss against a conference opponent, with those games reaching an average total of more than 138 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-21 | Louisville v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke minus the points over Louisville at 6 pm et on Saturday. It seems like it's going to take quite an effort to take down the Blue Devils right now as they've won four games in a row both SU and ATS, completely turning their season around following an awful start. Louisville continues to play an uneven brand of basketball, having gone 3-4 SU and ATS over its last seven games. The Cardinals are coming off a double-digit win over Notre Dame last time out, but that was at home. They're just 3-4 on the road, where they've been outscored by more than eight points per game. Note that while Duke is a woeful 7-16 ATS after scoring 80+ points in its last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, it has still managed to win those games by more than eight points on average. We're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Duke (10*). |
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02-26-21 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3 | Top | 58-43 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
CBB False Favorite Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Indiana State at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for Valpo as it comes in battle-tested off three straight games decided by three points or less. The fact it went 1-2 in those three contests should help keep its motivation level high for this one as it hosts Indiana State. Valpo is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series but dropped a double-digit decision against the Sycamores the last time they matched up last February. Here we find the Crusaders 11-3 when having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly two points in that situation. They're also an incredible 70-36 ATS when coming off a road loss, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.8 points. Indiana State has certainly been rolling along but might have a tough time keeping the positive momentum building here having not played in the last nine days. Take Valparaiso (10*). |
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02-24-21 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +11.5 | Top | 88-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Florida State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up well for Miami against an unsuspecting Florida State squad that's coming off three straight wins and already defeated the Hurricanes by 20+ points earlier this season. Miami hasn't been able to recapture that lightning in a bottle it found in a home win over Duke back on February 1st. The Canes followed up that win with relatively close losses against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame before getting their doors blown off by Georgia Tech last time out. I expect them to bounce back in a sense here, noting that they've gone 16-6 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by around two points per game. Miami is also a long-term ATS winner at 29-15 ATS when coming off three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, Florida State is 35-54 ATS in road games following three straight wins and has been outscored in those games by 0.6 points on average. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-22-21 | Syracuse +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
CBB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. The majority of bettors will likely be on the Blue Devils in this game but we'll go the other way and back the Orange as they look to halt Duke's three-game winning streak. The Orange don't have a good track record on the road this season by any means but they've also faced a very tough slate of opponents. Everyone was down on the Blue Devils after they suffered three straight losses to Miami, North Carolina and Notre Dame earlier this month but since then they've reeled off three straight wins over N.C. State, Wake Forest and Virginia. The win over Virginia came by a single point on Saturday and I think that puts them in a letdown situation here. Syracuse has won three straight games, scoring 70+ points on each occasion. Note that Duke is just 2-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Blue Devils are also 7-17 ATS following two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons. This is the game the Orange have no trouble at all getting up for, on a Monday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium in front of an ESPN audience. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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02-21-21 | South Florida +1.5 v. Temple | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida has no business being the underdog in this matchup on the road against Temple on Sunday afternoon. The Bulls will certainly get up for this game on the heels of three consecutive losses with the most recent coming in blowout fashion on the road against in-state rival UCF. Temple has just four wins in 13 games this season and has lost five in a row with the last four coming by a combined 14 points. Those results were somewhat flattering for an Owls team that just isn't very good. Note that Temple ranks T295th in the country in offensive rating and T207th in defensive rating this season. USF hasn't been much better but the Bulls will be good enough to secure the much-needed road win on Sunday afternoon. Take South Florida (10*). |
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02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -15 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Vanderbilt at 1 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon as it draws a favorable matchup against Vandy on its home floor. The Crimson Tide remain an underrated Top 10 team as far as I'm concerned. They roll into this game on the heels of a rout of Georgia. Meanwhile, Vandy is coming off a narrow four-point home loss against rival Kentucky on Wednesday night. That came after a somewhat surprising 21-point blowout victory over Mississippi State last Saturday. I simply expect the Commodores to get outmatched here, much like they did in 20-point losses at Davidson and Tennessee earlier this season. Take Alabama (10*). |
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02-19-21 | Oakland v. Wisc-Milwaukee -1 | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee minus the points over Oakland at 6 pm et on Friday. Bettors are obviously not very high on Wisconsin-Milwaukee right now as it checks in having dropped four games in a row. I like the Panthers chances of getting back in the win column on Friday, however, as they face a terrible defensive opponent in Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies snapped their three-game losing skid with a win at Robert Morris last time out but have now allowed five of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. They're giving up nearly 84 points per game away from home this season. Note that while the Panthers have lost four games in a row SU they did manage to cover the spread in consecutive losses at Wright State last weekend. They've gone 58-28 ATS following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent and also check in 133-97 ATS after covering the number in two of their last three games. I'm willing to take a flyer on a team that is happy to be home having played just two games on this floor since mid-January. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10*). |
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02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Youngstown State minus the points over IUPUI at 5 pm et on Friday. IUPUI caught Illinois-Chicago in a favorable back-to-back spot last weekend and absolutely knocked it out of the park, winning both games by a combined 27-point margin. While the Jaguars have certainly been playing well, I believe they're in a tough spot here on the road against a surging Youngstown State squad that has owned this series on Friday. Youngstown State has taken 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series including each of the last six ATS. The Penguins roll into this game off five straight wins. They've been terrific since the middle of January. Even in their four losses since January 16th they've been right there, losing each of those contests by seven points or less. Note that IUPUI hasn't fared well off outright upset wins over the last three seasons, going 3-11 ATS, losing those games by an average margin of nearly nine points. The Jaguars are a long-term loser when going on the road following two or more consecutive victories, posting an 8-23 ATS mark in that situation. They're also a woeful 13-29 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in their most recent game, as is the case here. Take Youngstown State (10*). |
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02-18-21 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -6.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on Santa Clara minus the points over San Diego at 9 pm et on Thursday. San Diego has just two road wins this season and those came against 3-13 Cal Poly and 6-13 Portland. Now the Toreros are in a tough spot having not played since January 28th due to Covid protocols. Meanwhile, Santa Clara will be eager to get right back on the floor after suffering a narrow three-point home loss against 10-6 Loyola Marymount on Tuesday night. Prior to that game the Broncos had been dealing with Covid issues of their own, off since January 23rd. Perhaps the low-grade performance was to be expected in their first game back. These two teams actually met back on January 21st in San Diego with Santa Clara pulling out a six-point win despite shooting just 38% from the field and 62% from the free throw line. Look for a sharper effort from the Broncos here. Take Santa Clara (10*). |
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02-17-21 | South Carolina +11.5 v. Tennessee | 73-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Tennessee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the Gamecocks catching all of those points on the road against the Vols on Wednesday night. South Carolina has lost three games in a row but only one of those losses came in blowout fashion. Note that the last time the Gamecocks lost three games in a row they followed it up with a 24-point rout of Georgia. South Carolina is a long-term winner as a double-digit road underdog, having gone 45-26 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, Tennessee checks in 3-9 ATS in SEC play this season and is a miserable 10-21 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just over four points in that situation. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after they split a pair of matchups last season, with those two games decided by a grand total of three points. Take South Carolina (10*). |
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02-17-21 | Duke v. Wake Forest +6 | 84-60 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest plus the points over Duke at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark fading Duke on the road against N.C. State on Saturday as the Blue Devils got off to a hot start and never looked back in a convincing victory. Wake Forest is coming off a 92-85 loss on the road against Florida State but there was no shame in that defeat as the Seminoles are an elite team that just manhandled Virginia on Monday night. The Demon Deacons will certainly be happy to be back home after three straight games on the road, noting they've won their last two contests here at home. There's no longer any sort of intimidation factor at play when it comes to the Blue Devils, who are mired in a disappointing campaign. Look for Wake to put up a fight here. Take Wake Forest (10*). |
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02-17-21 | Drake v. Northern Iowa +6 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Drake at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Northern Iowa as it looks to earn some revenge in short order after suffering a 21-point blowout defeat on the road against Drake one week ago tonight. Northern Iowa is mired in a disappointing season overall but has held its own here at home where it has gone 6-4 straight-up. The Panthers are coming off a confidence-boosting 14-point win over Valpo last time out and catch Drake in a favorable spot here, with the Bulldogs coming off a tough 1-1 split against Loyola-Chicago over the weekend. Drake got off to a tremendous start this season but has cooled off lately, going 3-4 ATS over its last seven games, including two SU victories where it failed to cover the spread. This isn't a difficult game for Northern Iowa to get up for and it generally rises to the occasion in this matchup at home, where it has taken the last two meetings and owns a 19-3 SU record against Drake in the last 22 matchups on this floor. In what has the potential to be a game played in the 60's, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Panthers. Take Northern Iowa (10*). |
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02-16-21 | Florida +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Florida plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. With the Gators coming off an upset loss at home against South Carolina and Arkansas off an upset win of its own at Missouri, I can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from installing Florida as an underdog in this matchup. That doesn't mean I agree with the logic, however. Note that Arkansas is a miserable 23-44 ATS after an outright underdog win and also 5-14 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Florida, meanwhile, has gone 17-7 ATS after dropping the cash in two of its last three games over the last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Florida has won three straight meetings with Arkansas and is 25-7 against the Razorbacks in the last 32 matchups. Take Florida (10*). |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State -1.5 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is an easy game for the Seminoles to get up for as they host the most recent national champs in Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off a 60-48 win over North Carolina on Saturday night but will face a much tougher challenge here. There's no intimidation factor at play with Florida State having taken two of the last three meetings in this series. Note that Virginia is 1-9 ATS off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons. Florida State is 11-3 ATS at home against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Take Florida State (10*). |
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02-14-21 | Indiana State v. Evansville +3 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Indiana State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I won't hesitate to fade Indiana State as a road favorite here noting that the Sycamores only road wins this season have come against 5-14 Illinois State and 6-13 Northern Iowa. Indiana State had its seven-game winning streak snapped in a 70-67 loss at Northern Iowa last Sunday. I can't help but think the Sycamores would have liked to get right back on the floor rather than wait a week before this game. Note that Indiana State is 0-7 ATS when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15 points in those games. Meanwhile, Evansville has reeled off four straight ATS wins and checks in as a solid momentum play having gone 8-2 ATS following an ATS victory this season. The Purple Aces are one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams, ranking 18th in made three-pointers per game and T48th in three-point percentage. That sets them up well as Indiana State is 9-25 ATS in road games against opponents that average eight or more made threes per game, outscored by nearly 12 points per contest in that situation. Take Evansville (10*). |
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02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Month. My selection is on Hofstra plus the points over James Madison at 2 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a quick revenge spot for Hofstra after suffering a narrow 93-89 loss against the Dukes yesterday. Keep in mind, Hofstra has a number of quality wins away from home this season, including over 10-5 Monmouth and 10-4 Richmond. Despite yesterday's loss, the Pride are still 4-2 in their last six meetings with James Madison. They've gone an impressive 24-11 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in a game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone 5-12 ATS in the same situation over the last three seasons. The Dukes have now grabbed the cash in six straight games following yesterday's win but should be in tough on Sunday, noting that Hofstra hasn't dropped the cash in consecutive games since an extended ATS losing streak in the first couple of weeks of January. Take Hofstra (10*). |
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02-14-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 131.5 | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan and Wisconsin at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Wisconsin's last game - a double-digit win over Nebraska earlier this week. Now the value has swung the other way as I look for this one to find its way 'over' the total. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 when Wisconsin follows a double-digit win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 137.5 points. The 'over' is also 8-2 after a game in which the Badgers cover the spread this season with those contests reaching an average of 137.6 points. Michigan is averaging just shy of 80 points per game against opponents that average 71.3 ppg this season. After facing Penn State, Illinois and Nebraska over their last three games, the Badgers will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against the Michigan offense here. Meanwhile, the Wolverines haven't played since January 22nd and I can't imagine they bring peak defensive intensity in this one. Wisconsin is averaging just shy of 75 ppg at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-13-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 129.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia at 6 pm et on Saturday. This game will feature a contrast in styles but I expect Virginia to dictate the pace at home as usual, leading to a relatively low-scoring game. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in North Carolina's last seven games in the current o/u range, with those games totaling an average of just 117.3 points. Also note that Virginia has posted a 32-54 o/u mark when coming off a game as a road favorite, with those games averaging around 126 total points. While Virginia is certainly known for its defense and that has held true this season as it has given up just north of 59 points per game against opponents that average 73.5 ppg, North Carolina has also fared well defensively, giving up just over 70 ppg against opponents that average over 73 ppg. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Villanova v. Creighton +3 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Creighton plus the points over Villanova at 5 pm et on Saturday. With Villanova coming off a 32-point dismantling of Marquette on Wednesday. That marked the Wildcats second straight ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Here, they're obviously laying far fewer points but draw a tough matchup against Creighton. The Blue Jays have also won back-to-back games, including a 15-point win on the road against Georgetown earlier this week. Note that the Jays are 20-10 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. They're also 10-2 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in a game over their last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 11 points. There's no intimidation factor at play here as Creighton took the last meeting in the series by 15 points last February. While Villanova will obviously be looking for revenge here, that's always a better proposition playing at home. We'll grab the points but hopefully won't need them. Take Creighton (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Duke v. NC State +3.5 | 69-53 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday. Duke has yet to win a game this month, suffering three straight losses to fall under the .500 mark on the season. Note the Blue Devils have just one road win of note this season, that coming against 8-10 Notre Dame - the same Irish squad that Duke just lost to last time out. N.C. State is coming off a disappointing 77-68 home loss against Syracuse. That actually sets the Wolfpack up well in this one as they're 45-26 ATS the last 71 times they've followed an outright loss as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly five points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Duke is 5-16 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in their last game, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Arkansas v. Missouri -145 | 86-81 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Missouri (moneyline) over Arkansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We missed the early value with this one priced closer to a pk'em so will go with the moneyline rather than the spread here as the price still warrants such a play. We actually cashed a ticket fading Missouri in its last game - a blowout loss at Ole Miss earlier this week. That letdown was to be expected as the Tigers were coming off three straight home wins in SEC play. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers get back up for the Razorbacks. Arkansas will be looking for revenge after suffering a blowout loss at home against Missouri back in January. However, it's worth noting that the Hogs are a miserable 16-31 ATS on the road revenging a double-digit loss, losing those games by an average margin of nearly nine points. Arkansas is also a poor 2-9 ATS after winning ATS in four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons. Take Missouri moneyline (9*). |
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02-12-21 | Detroit v. Cleveland State -3 | 89-83 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland State minus the points over Detroit at 9 pm et on Friday. Detroit has held its own against some quality opponents from power conferences on the road this season but has little to show for it with an 8-8 overall record. Note that the Titans' only road victories have come against 4-11 Western Michigan, 8-15 Oakland and a pair of wins against 11-10 Youngstown State. Cleveland State has suffered just one loss at home this season, that coming in the second half of a back-to-back set against 7-8 Wisconsin-Milwaukee in January. The Vikings clearly got caught looking past the Panthers at halftime in that game after beating them by double-digits the previous night and building an 11-point lead entering the second half. Since then, Cleveland State has reeled off four straight wins to improve to 14-5 on the campaign. Detroit is in a poor situation here as it checks in 8-19 ATS on the road after covering the number in three or more consecutive games. Cleveland State is 8-1 ATS the last nine times it has been favored by six points or less at home over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland State (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions, not to mention the revenge angle in play. Georgia Tech has dropped four of its last six games while Clemson checks in winners of three of its last four. Of course, the last time these two teams met it was no contest as Georgia Tech rolled to a 83-65 win at home. That came during a three-game slide for Clemson - with all three games resulting in blowout defeats. We saw the Tigers break out of their shooting funk in a big way last time out as they shot better than 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Syracuse. Defensively, they've held three of their last four opponents to sub-39% shooting. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has cooled offensively and now faces a Clemson squad that allows just 62.6 points per game against opponents that average 72.4 ppg on the season. I expect the Tigers to own the glass in this contest, which should help them ultimately put this game away. Note that Clemson has been a strong momentum play in similar situations in recent years, having gone 13-3 ATS following a double-digit win over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Take Clemson (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas-San Antonio -4 | Top | 80-84 | Push | 0 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas-San Antonio minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Friday. Florida Atlantic had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 74-71 loss vs. Charlotte back on January 23rd. Why am I going back to a game played weeks ago, you ask? Because the Owls haven't played since due to Covid protocols. The extended layoff was probably the worst thing for FAU after it had been playing well. Note that the Owls only two road victories this season have come against 7-11 North Florida and 9-12 Florida International. UTSA has to be feeling pretty good about itself after scoring 87 and 90 points in consecutive wins at FIU last weekend. The Roadrunners have lost just one game at home this season and that came against a quality 10-6 North Texas squad back on January 8th. UTSA will be playing with double-revenge in this spot after dropping both meetings against FAU last season. Note that the Roadrunners are 18-5 ATS at home against C-USA foes over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of eight points per game. They're also a solid momentum play having gone a perfect 6-0 ATS after covering the number in at least two consecutive games over the last three seasons, winning those contests by an average margin of over 15 points. Take UTSA (10*). |
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02-11-21 | UCLA v. Washington State UNDER 129.5 | 73-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Washington State at 11 pm et on Thursday. This game features a matchup of two good defensive teams and I like the way the situation sets up for the 'under' with both coming off a loss. UCLA is allowing just north of 67 points per game this season against opponents that average over 72 points per game. Here, they'll face a subpar Cougars offense that puts up a shade under 68 ppg against opponents that give up almost 70 ppg. Note that the 'under' has gone 38-15 the last 53 times Washington State has lost five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a solid 48-24 in games involving Washington State where the total has settled at 129.5 or less (as is the case at the time of writing). This is a low total by both teams' standards this season but I believe it's warranted as the Bruins and Cougars look to tighten things up in an important Pac-12 matchup on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-21 | USC v. Washington OVER 145.5 | 69-54 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Washington at 10 pm et on Thursday. USC is coming off a dominating 66-48 win over UCLA but could certainly be in for a letdown against the lowly Washington Huskies on Thursday. Rather than grab the points with the Huskies, though, I'll play the 'over' as this sets up as a high-scoring affair. Note that the Trojans are averaging 75.7 points per game against opponents that give up just under 68 ppg. They should absolutely feast on a Washington defense that gives up nearly 79 ppg against opponents that allow an average just north of 73 ppg. Washington has posted a 10-2 o/u record when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. As bad as the Huskies overall record is, they have shot better than 50% from the field in four of their last eight games overall. Their only shot of making a game of this likely comes from pushing the pace. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-21 | Colorado v. Stanford +1.5 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Colorado at 7 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for Stanford as it hosts 15-5 Colorado on Thursday. The Buffaloes are coming off consecutive home wins over Arizona and Oregon State but those victories were to be expected as they were favored by seven and 13 points, respectively. That sets up Colorado poorly here as it is a miserable 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games following two or more straight home wins over the last three seasons. Going back much further the Buffs' are 62-88 ATS when going on the road off a straight-up home win. Stanford just delivered a two-game sweep of Cal and is well-positioned as a momentum play here at home, where the Cardinal have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS at home off a home conference win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13 points per game in that situation. On the flip side, they're also 19-9 ATS after dropping the cash in two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Colorado has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series but Stanford has held its own in recent years, splitting the last four matchups. Take Stanford (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 137 | Top | 61-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up ideally as the Badgers head to Nebraska off a disappointing 15-point loss at Illinois on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Wisconsin plays on the road off one or more losses over the last two years, with those games averaging a total of just 116.5 points. The 'under' is also 9-1 in the Badgers last 10 games following an ATS loss with those games reaching an average of just 118.7 points. Nebraska is one of the Big Ten's worst teams but should be up for this one after getting crushed in back-to-back road games last week. Note that while the Huskers are by no means a strong defensive team, they have held their last two opponents below 40% shooting. Also note that the first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 120 points with only 40 made field goals. The Huskers are a long-term 'under' play here at home, where they've posted a 90-127 o/u record over their last 217 lined contests. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Missouri at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the momentum play with Ole Miss in this one as they look to gain some traction off consecutive wins over Tennessee and Auburn. Note that the Rebels are 8-1 ATS off an outright underdog win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than five points per game in that situation. They're also a solid 29-17 ATS coming off an ATS win over that same stretch. Missouri is coming off an extended run of success in SEC play but it's worth mentioning that the Tigers have gone 6-15 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games and have been outscored by nearly five points per game in that situation. They're a long-term losing proposition on the road having gone 102-134 ATS in their last 236 lined games away from home. I can't help but think a letdown could be in order for 13-3 Missouri here. Take Ole Miss (10*). |
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02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Butler minus the points over St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. St. John's got the better of Butler earlier this season, rolling to a double-digit victory on its home floor back in January. Keep in mind, that sets up Butler nicely here noting that the Bulldogs have gone an incredible 8-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last two seasons. Also note that Butler is an impressive 23-10 ATS the last 33 times it has played after losing three of its last four games - as is the case here. The Red Storm are by no means a stout defensive team and it's worth mentioning that they're 13-29 ATS when following up a game where both teams scored 80+ points. With St. John's rolling off six consecutive wins, it is certain to get Butler's best shot here. I like the Bulldogs to clamp down defensively and build off their last game - a double-digit win over Depaul on Saturday. Take Butler (10*). |
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02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Tuesday. West Virginia caught Texas Tech flat-footed in the last meeting between these two teams back on January 25th. The Red Raiders entered that game off a tough home loss to Baylor - snapping a three-game winning streak in the process. Perhaps more importantly, Texas Tech was coming off an eight-day layoff while West Virginia had just got a nice tune-up two days earlier in a 22-point rout of Kansas State. Not surprisingly, the Mountaineers shot the lights out (57.7%) but still only managed to defeat Texas Tech by a single point, at home no less. Now West Virginia finds itself in a tough spot, noting that the Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS on the road when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, losing those games by around 11 points per contest. They're also just 56-83 ATS when playing on the road after winning three of their last four games. This time it's Texas Tech that's fresh off a nice tune-up win over Kansas State, having defeated the Wildcats 73-62 on Saturday. That marked the Red Raiders third straight win. Look for them to make it four in a row here in convincing fashion. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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01-05-21 | Toledo v. Kent State -120 | 84-82 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kent State (moneyline) over Toledo at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for Kent State as it looks to bounce back from a narrow four-point loss suffered against Akron on New Year's Day. The Golden Flashes have played only five games so far this season, posting a 3-2 mark. Their only other loss came against an elite opponent in Virginia - a game in which they easily covered the 20.5-point spread, losing by just seven points. Toledo is off to an 8-3 start and hasn't lost a game since December 9th at Michigan. However, the Rockets have faced just one winning opponent in five games since then. Note that Toledo ranks 315th in the nation in block percentage and 215th in steals per possession. I don't think we'll see the Rockets make life all that difficult on the Kent State offense here today. The Golden Flashes rank a respectable 77th in the country in effective field goal percentage entering this game. Take Kent State moneyline (10*). |
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01-02-21 | Creighton -4 v. Providence | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the 11th-ranked Blue Jays on Saturday as they travel to face Providence. Creighton's only two losses this season have come against Kansas and Marquette by a combined six points so the blemishes on its 7-2 overall record are minor to say the least. This game will feature a real contrast in styles with the Blue Jays preferring a more up-tempo game compared to the Friars slow-it-down mindset. Note that the Friars rank 224th in the country in possessions per game. By contrast, Creighton ranks 72nd in that category. I'm just not sure the Friars will have enough possessions to keep pace with Creighton here, noting that the Blue Jays rank 19th in effective field goal percentage while Providence sits 141st. Take Creighton (10*). |
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12-21-20 | Wofford v. Texas A&M OVER 133 | 52-70 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wofford and Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair in this intriguing early afternoon matchup on Monday. It's certainly worth noting that Texas A&M checks in 212th in the nation in three-point percentage allowed given that Wofford ranks second in percentage of points coming from three-pointers (51.4%). The Terriers sit an impressive third in the country in three-pointers made per game with over 12. I do think the Aggies can counteract the Terriers hot outside shooting as they rank top 100 in offensive efficiency and fifth in free throws made per offensive play. We should also see A&M get its transition game going as it ranks top 50 in steals per possession. Neither team has had a penchant for stuffing the opposition with Wofford and Texas A&M ranking 234th and 260th respectively in blocks per game. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-20 | BYU +7.5 v. San Diego State | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU plus the points over San Diego State at 5 pm et on Friday. The Cougars are catching too many points in this matchup as they look to hand San Diego State its first loss of the season. Note that the Aztecs rank 215th in the nation in points allowed per game from three-pointers while BYU ranks 66th in points scored per game from three-point range. I do think there's a path to victory for the Cougars in this one as they match up well with the Aztecs in terms of rebounding at both ends of the floor. As you would expect, San Diego State ranks a solid 83rd in the country in total rebounding percentage but BYU is just behind it sitting 87th. It's not as if the Cougars have faced a cupcake schedule either. Here in December they've gone 3-2 in games against USC, St. John's, Utah State, Boise State and Utah. The potential is there for this game to go right down to the wire. Take BYU (10*). |
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12-18-20 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 143 | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 2 pm et on Friday. We have somewhat of a contrast in styles in this matchup as Central Michigan checks in T35th in the country in pace rating while Western Michigan sits T270th. Of course, the Broncos ranking has more to do with the tough competition they've faced than anything else. We've yet to see them really get going offensively, but today's matchup should afford them a chance to do just that against a Central Michigan squad that ranks T211th in defensive efficiency and 224th in block percentage. Look for a free-flowing affair between these two MAC teams on Friday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-20 | Wagner v. Bryant OVER 153 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
CBB NEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wagner and Bryant at 4 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet in this Northeast Conference matchup between Wagner and Bryant on Wednesday afternoon. Wagner is off to a winless start after getting hammered 78-45 by Seton Hall in its season opener last Tuesday. The Seahawks shot a miserable 27% from the field in that contest, including 3-of-20 from beyond the arc. Impressively, they did manage to grab 11 offensive rebounds and outscored the Pirates 13-6 in second chance points. That was obviously little consolation in an otherwise dismal performance, however. Here, the Seahawks should rebound and at least get their offense on track against a Bryant squad that loves to push the pace. In fact, no teams in the country ranks higher than Bryant in terms of pace rating this season. The Bulldogs are shooting an impressive 48.4% overall and making just shy of 11 three-pointers per game. It's unlikely Wagner will be able to slow them down, but as the pointspread indicates, I do expect a competitive affair that ultimately topples the total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte v. Davidson OVER 130 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Davidson at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Charlotte is off to a disappointing 1-3 start this season and checks in as a double-digit underdog here. However, I do believe the 49ers can break through offensively against a beatable Davidson defense. Note that the Wildcats check in a miserable T256th in defensive rating and average just 3.4 steals per contest, good for a laughable 317th in the country. Also note that they've recorded just seven blocks in their last four games overall. Of course, we know Davidson can score. While its pace leaves something to be desired, it has more than made up for it by shooting better than 50% from the field while averaging just shy of 10 made three-pointers per game. There's reason to believe the Wildcats can keep that going against a very average 49ers defense. Charlotte has faced a very difficult schedule so far this season and it doesn't get easier here, but the 49ers should certainly improve on a 57-point effort last time out - a game in which they shot 39% from the field and were blocked 10 times. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-20 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 140.5 | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Maryland at 6 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' as the Scarlet Knights and Terrapins do battle in an intriguing early season Big Ten matchup on Monday evening. Rutgers is off to a flawless 4-0 start this season, earning itself a top 25 ranking. The Knights have quite simply shot the lights out in the early going this season but they'll run into arguably their toughest opponent of the season to date on Monday, noting that Maryland has limited each of its first five opponents to 45% or worse shooting. While the Terps are off to a positive 4-1 start to the campaign it hasn't come without some sloppiness. Note that they've posted double-digit turnovers in each of their last four games since opening the season with a near flawless rout of Old Dominion. Likewise, Rutgers has also recorded double-digit turnovers in all but its first game this season. I expect both teams to step up defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-20 | North Texas v. West Virginia OVER 138 | Top | 50-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between North Texas and West Virginia at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest between North Texas and West Virginia on Friday afternoon. The Mean Green Eagles are coming off consecutive losses against SEC opponents in Arkansas and Mississippi State. UNT ran into block parties against the Hogs and Bulldogs, blocked 15 times in those two contests. It's tough to get a real gauge on where the Eagles are at offensively given their only other game was played against Mississippi Valley State - a game they won by a 116-62 score. I do think they catch West Virginia in a bit of a letdown spot defensively with the Mountaineers coming off games against Gonzaga and Georgetown. I don't think we'll see WVU shy away from an up-tempo affair on Friday. The Mountaineers have scored at least 78 points in four of five games this season. The lone time they didn't came in the tail-end of a tough three-game in three-day stretch, and they still managed to get to 70 in that game against Western Kentucky. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Furman plus the points over Cincinnati at 5 pm et on Wednesday. We've already won once with Furman this season, albeit in a far easier matchup against USC Upstate (the Palladins were laying 18.5 points in that game and won by 28). Here, I'll grab the points with the Palladins as they hit the road to face Cincinnati. The Bearcats are off to a 1-1 start and certainly haven't rounded into form just yet. Through two games (an admittedly small sample size) they rank T224th in the nation in pace rating and T171st in field goal percentage. By contrast, Furman appears to be in midseason form having knocked down 52.5% of their shots. The Palladins also rank 28th in the country in rebounds per game and an impressive 17th in assists. Cincinnati would undoubtedly have more of an edge in this matchup after getting a few more games under its belt but right now, I believe the case can be made for Furman to continue its undefeated start to the season. Take Furman (10*). |
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12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -9 | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iona minus the points over Morgan State at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Iona as it takes on Morgan State on Tuesday afternoon. The Gaels have split a pair of games against Seton Hall and Hofstra this season. I like the way they've made it tough on the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, recording 12 blocks through two games. Iona certainly needs to do a better job of finishing offensive possessions and taking care of the basketball after yielding 19 steals through its first two contests, but we did see it show some improvement in that regard last time out. Morgan State is 1-1 on the season as well but it's lone victory came over little-known Lincoln (PA), and it came by just eight points in a game where the Bears gave up 90+ points. Through two contests, the Bears have notched just six blocks at the defensive end of the floor. After allowing Lincoln to shoot 50% from the field and get to the free throw line 30 times last time out I suspect they'll have their hands full with Iona here. Take Iona (10*). |
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12-07-20 | NC-Wilmington v. East Carolina OVER 138.5 | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C.-Wilmington and East Carolina at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll call for a relatively high-scoring affair in this one. UNCW is off to a 2-1 start although it lost by 22 points in its only true test against Western Carolina. We haven't seen a great deal of intensity or positive activity metrics from the Seahawks at the defensive end of the floor, and while they'll be facing an East Carolina squad that ranks as one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (keep in mind it's early so we're dealing with a very small sample size), I'm confident we'll see the Pirates thrive offensively in this matchup (noting they're double-digit favorites at the time of writing). East Carolina has only played as well as it has had to to notch victories through three games, facing a very easy schedule that has included matchups with winless squads Charlotte and Radford and little-known North Carolina Wesleyan. Like UNCW, East Carolina hasn't shown a high-level of defensive pressure or intensity, most recently recording just four blocks and four steals in a 66-50 rout of Radford. Expect some positive regression in terms of offensive production from both teams in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan OVER 136 | Top | 91-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Eastern Michigan at 7 pm et on Friday. Toledo is already four games into its 2020-21 campaign, having gone 2-2, scoring 70 or more points in three of those contests. The other end of the floor has been a mixed bag for the Rockets, however, noting that they've recorded just six blocks through four games and have benefited from some absolutely dreadful three-point shooting from their opposition. Obviously some of that has to do with Toledo's ability to guard the perimeter, but I generally expect some regression to the mean moving forward. Eastern Michigan has played just once, suffering an 83-67 loss to Michigan State last Wednesday. The Eagles approached the 70-point mark despite shooting just 4-of-21 from three-point range and making good on only 11 free throw attempts in that contest - and that was against a far better defensive team than they'll face on Friday. The last time these two teams met Toledo rolled to a 22-point victory and the game saw 136 total points. This time around, I'm expecting a more competitive affair and that should lend itself to a higher-scoring contest in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut +1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut over USC at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the upside with UConn in this matchup as it catches USC coming off a big early season win over BYU. The Huskies are off to a 2-0 start and have recorded 34 assists and 15 blocks. They've shot just 15-of-45 from three-point range but I certainly anticipate some positive regression in that regard moving forward. USC checks in shooting just 58% from the free throw line and averages fewer than three steals per contest while committing nearly 16 turnovers per game. The Huskies have been far more active defensively, noting the block total earlier and the fact that they're averaging eight steals per game. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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12-02-20 | Incarnate Word v. Wyoming -16 | 83-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over Incarnate Word at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a blowout in the making as Wyoming looks to bounce back from a tough two-point loss suffered at the hands of Texas Southern on Monday. This is the perfect 'get right' spot against Incarnate Word, which has split a pair of games this season with its lone win coming off little known Our Lady Lake - a team that lost its opener by 39 points against Rice. IW shot 27-of-41 from two-point range in that victory but was actually outscored 12-9 on second chance points and 21-8 on fast break points. While the Cardinals dominated the paint in that game, that isn't likely to continue here - noting that they were outrebounded 37-28 and outscored 42-26 in the paint in their first game against aforementioned Rice - a 15-point loss. Wyoming has shot well through two games, while also racking up 36 assists. The Cowboys have the talent to stretch out the margin, as evidenced in their season-opening 36-point rout of Mississippi Valley State. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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12-01-20 | South Dakota v. Nebraska OVER 150 | 69-76 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Nebraska at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between winless South Dakota and 2-1 Nebraska on Tuesday night. South Dakota may be winless through two games, but I'm not sure what else could have been expected in two tough season-opening matchups against Colorado and Drake - two teams that have gone undefeated through two games. The Coyotes three-point shooting has been abysmal so far (5-for-34). I do think they'll get more open looks in this contest, as they face a Nebraska squad that plays at a fairly quick tempo. Speaking of threes, Nebraska has been bombing away from long-range and enjoying some success in doing so. The Huskers are making just shy of 10 three-pointers per game, hoisting up an incredible 73 attemps in their last two games. This is an ideal matchup in that regard, noting that South Dakota has allowed the opposition to connect on better than 40% of their shots from long-range. I'll call for a wide-open affair between these two non-conference foes on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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12-01-20 | Cleveland State +9.5 v. Toledo | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland State plus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Cleveland State has yet to hit the floor this season while Toledo already has three games under its belt. The common line of thinking is probably that the Rockets have the decided advantage here, as evidenced by the lofty pointspread. I feel that the spread will prove too high, however. Note that Toledo held up well in its three-game in three days stretch to open the campaign thanks in large part to some terrific shooting from beyond the arc. While the Rockets shot a miserable 39% overall against Xavier last time out, they connected on 53% of their three-point attempts. I think it's worth noting that they've recorded a grand total of just six blocks through three contests. While that has had something to do with the fact that they've faced two tough opponents in Bradley and Xavier, sandwiched around a cakewalk against Oakland, I do look for Cleveland State to find plenty of room to operate in the paint in this one. The Vikings have unfortunately been perennial losers in recent years but I do believe the potential is there for some progress in 2020-21 thanks to plenty of returning talent. Toledo is ripe for a letdown here following that near-upset of Xavier. Take Cleveland State (10*). |
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11-30-20 | North Carolina v. UNLV OVER 151 | 78-51 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and UNLV at 7 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as North Carolina looks for its second straight win to open the season against UNLV on Monday night. The Tar Heels scored 79 points in their season-opener against Charleston, which was saying something considering they shot just 39% from the field, including 4-of-18 from beyond the arc. I expect them to find far more open looks against UNLV, which was torched for 91 points on 56% shooting in a stunning season-opening loss to Montana State as a double-digit favorite. The Runnin' Rebels were abused in the paint in that setback, outscored by a whopping 38-18 margin. If they're going to contend with the Tar Heels in this one, they'll need to get out and push the tempo after attempting just 55 shots in their first game. There were some positives for the Rebels in the loss, as they shot reasonably well from beyond the arc (44%) and the free throw line (81%). Take the over (10*). |
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11-30-20 | Texas v. Davidson OVER 136.5 | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Davidson at 12 noon et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in this early start matchup on Monday afternoon. Texas turned the ball over a whopping 17 times against Texas Rio Grande in its season-opener, yet still managed to put up 91 points. Also notable was the fact that the Longhorns missed 12 free throws in that contest. On the flip side, Rio Grande got to 55 points despite shooting a woeful 26% from the field and missing 11 free throws. Davidson will obviously offer a much stiffer test to the Longhorns. The Wildcats delivered an 82-73 win over High Point in their season debut. Davidson appeared to be in midseason form offensively in that game, shooting 52% from the field and 41% from three-point range. I certainly expect the Wildcats to give the Longhorns a run in this one, and that should serve us well with an 'over' ticket in hand. Take the over (10*). |