Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State v. Xavier OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
NIT First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between Cleveland State and Xavier in NIT action on Tuesday. Cleveland State made an unceremonious early exit in the Horizon League Tournament thanks to a poor shooting effort against Wright State. The Vikings still managed to knock down 25 field goals and score 67 points in that setback. Note that they've made good on 30+ field goals in four of their last eight games with the low-water mark being 21 over that stretch in what turned out to be a lwo-scoring, defensive affair against Oakland. Here, I'm confident we'll see Xavier push the pace, noting that it has gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games, eclipsing the 70 FG mark three times over that stretch. The Musketeers haven't just been pushing the pace, they've been knocking down their shots as well, making good on 33+ field goals in three of their last five games. While Cleveland State has held six straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals, that's had more to do with pace than anything else. The Vikings have been nothing special defensively away from home, where they've yielded 26-of-56 shooting and eight made threes per game. Not only that but they've sent opponents to the free throw line 22 times per game away from home this season. Xavier is certainly vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 34, 25, 33, 29, 28, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last seven contests. Even in the game where they only allowed 25 made FG's they still gave up 72 points in a loss to UConn. Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Missouri State v. Oklahoma OVER 138.5 | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Missouri State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri State is absolutely capable of 'filling it up', even against a Big 12 opponent in Oklahoma on Tuesday. It was an 'up' year for the Missouri Valley Conference as far as I'm concerned with no easy games to be had. The Bears thrived offensively, knocking down 26+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, including 29 or more in four of those contests. However, they did little to slow the opposition, a big reason for their early demise in the MVC Tournament. Missouri State checks in having allowed 33, 26, 24, 22 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests, with the two outliers coming against weaker Valpo and Evansville squads. Only one of the Bears last four opponents failed to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Not surprisingly, we've seen the 'over' cash in six of the Bears last seven games overall. Oklahoma got bogged down offensively in a couple of matchups against Texas Tech - one of the best defensive teams in the country - including in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Between those two games, the Sooners did make good on 22, 27, 28 and 26 field goals, despite the fact that they got off 54 or fewer FG attempts in all four of those contests. Here, I'm expecting the Sooners to get involved in a more up-tempo affair with the Bears. I say that as we did see Oklahoma yield 58+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and it comes in having allowed six of its last nine opponents to make good on 25+ field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton OVER 142.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Princeton at 12 noon et on Sunday. I think the betting markets are a little spooked when it comes to the total here after both of these teams produced 'under' results in yesterday's Ivy League semi-final matchups. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total that we saw in the two regular season meetings, keeping in mind both of those games got into the 150's. Yale didn't need to force the issue yesterday as Penn simply wasn't hitting its shots, making good on just 23-of-58 of its field goal attempts. The Bulldogs have generally been giving up a fairly consistent number of buckets though, yielding 26+ made field goals in five straight games prior to yesterday's contest. That's with a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate Princeton pushing the pace. The Tigers have certainly been 'filling it up' lately, and really all season long. The enter this game having made good on 29+ field goals in seven of their last nine games and have scored 74+ points in five straight contests. An issue, however, is Princeton's inability to slow down opposing offenses, allowing 28, 29, 31 and 32 made field goals over its last four games, yielding 63 or more FG attempts in three straight contests entering Sunday's Championship Game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter the Southland Conference Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season. I simply feel Corpus Christi has been the better all-around team all season and will prove it in this winner-take-all showdown on Saturday night. Note that the Islanders come into this game having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight games. They like to slow the pace, which doesn't suit Southeastern Louisiana all that well. Note that the Lions have made good on 26+ field goals in five straight games but they got off 60+ attempts in three of those five contests. Slow it down and I don't anticipate SE Louisiana enjoying nearly as much success here. On the flip side, the Lions have been lit up for 29+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Yes, they play at a faster pace so that is to be expected, but perhaps not to the level we've seen. Note that four of the Lions last five opponents got into the 30's in terms of made field goals. They're here thanks to New Orleans having an off night shooting the basketball on Friday, making good on just 25-of-62 attempts. Provided the Islanders can shoot for average on Saturday, as I expect them to do (they shoot 44.4% from the field this season), I'm confident they'll prevail. Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UABĀ OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana Tech and UAB at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game involving Louisiana Tech yesterday as the Bulldogs defeated North Texas 42-36 in one of the uglier college basketball games you'll ever see. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as the Bulldogs challenge the UAB Blazers in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that the two regular season matchups between these two teams totalled 159 and 161 points. They just faced one another last week and we saw a closing total of 147, so we're dealing with a major adjustment to that number here. I'm not sure it's warranted. Louisiana Tech's three previous opponents in this tournament simply haven't been able to knock down their shots, with only Marshall managing to hit more than 21 field goals (the Thundering Herd made 25 in a 77-67 loss). It's not as if the Bulldogs have been a dominant defensive team all season though, noting that they yield 25-of-59 shooting including 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from home this season. The Blazers offer a much different challenge compared to what the Bulldogs have faced so far in this tournament. UAB checks in having knocked down 32, 32, 27 and 31 field goals over its last four games, scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. I am confident that Louisiana Tech can be along for the ride here, however, noting that the Blazers have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 25, 22, 29, 23 and 32 made field goals over their last five contests (I realize the latter result involved three overtime periods against Middle Tennessee State yesterday). UAB generally likes to push the pace, averaging 62 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and I do believe that will open the door for the Bulldogs offense here, noting that they hit 53 field goals across the two regular season meetings, even reaching 76 points in the first matchup despite getting off only 52 attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Ivy League Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn and Yale at 2 pm et on Saturday. Penn enters this Ivy League semi-final matchup riding a five-game 'over' streak and I look for that to continue against Yale on Saturday. The Quakers were one of the worst defensive teams in the country down the stretch, allowing 28, 30, 30, 28 and 37 made field goals over their last five games. They can't help but continue to push the pace though, as they continue to 'pour it in', knocking down 28, 29, 33, 26 and 31 field goals over their last five games and enter this contest having scored 70+ points in nine straight games - a run that started with a 76-point performance against Yale. The Bulldogs took their share of lumps down the stretch, unable to consistently slow down the opposition, allowing three of their last five opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Their offensive numbers certainly don't pop off the page, but they did manage to make good on 24 or more field goals in five of their last six games, an encouraging sign given that they don't play at all that quick of a pace. Note that we have a potential floor to work with as far as these two offenses go, noting that Yale shot 23-of-59 from the field including just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two teams this season, yet that game still got to 144 total points. The next meeting was higher-scoring as Yale won by an 81-72 score. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. This one has all the makings of a track meet as Duke heads into this game riding a four-game 'over' streak while Miami has shot a blistering 50%+ from the field in five consecutive games. The Hurricanes are absolutely locked-in offensively right now, making good on 28+ field goals in eight straight games, albeit boosted by overtime yesterday against Boston College. On the flip side, the Canes aren't really slowing anyone down, allowing 28+ made field goals in three of their last four games and now run into a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Duke has knocked down 35, 32, 34 and 32 field goals over its last four games, scoring more than 80 points in all four contests. Like Miami, though, Duke has done little to slow opponents down, yielding 27+ made field goals in five of its last seven games. The Blue Devils last two opponents have gotten off 68 and 67 FG attempts. In the lone regular season matchup between these two teams Miami pulled off a stunning 76-74 upset win at Cameron Indoor. That game saw 150 total points despite the two teams hitting only 10 three-pointers (they average 15 per game combined this season) and combining for only 28 free throw attempts (they average 34 FT attempts per game combined). Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Creighton at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Providence narrowly escaped with a four-point win over Butler last night but I expect it to 'get right' and move on with a more convincing win over Creighton on Friday. The Friars are locked-in defensively right now, allowing just 18, 23 and 22 made field goals over their last three games. While Creighton obviously poses a challenge, I expect Providence to be up for it, noting that it held the Blue Jays to just 18 made field goals including only five from beyond the arc in a 72-51 win in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. Offensively, we saw the Friars get bogged down against a Butler team that can be very frustrating to play against last night, knocking down only 20 field goals on 54 attempts but it was still enough to get into the 60's and secure the win. Here, I think the Friars will prefer the pace the Blue Jays play at, noting that Creighton has allowed opponents to get off 64+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. The Blue Jays have yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Creighton's offense has been rather uneven lately, hitting just 18, 27, 21 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. I'm just not sure it will get enough opportunities to keep within arm's reach here, noting that Providence allows just 24 made field goals and only six from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. Take Providence (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 136 | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Michigan at 11:30 am et on Thursday. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams totalled 142 points and as a result we're dealing with a slightly higher posted total for this one. I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made, however. The Hoosiers haven't made life all that difficult on opposing offenses lately. Note that their opponents have made good on 26, 23, 27, 24 and 23 field goals over their last five games. At the face of it, those numbers don't look all bad. However, when you consider the Hoosiers yielded 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those five contests you see a different picture. Here, I do think Michigan will be able to push the pace a little bit. The Wolverines have had their own issues containing opposing offenses, giving up 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games. The only occasion where they didn't give up that number was last time out against Ohio State - a game in which the Buckeyes still shot a solid 24-of-50 from the field. On the flip side, the Michigan offense has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 27 or more field goals in five straight games while getting off 60 and 68 FG attempts in its last two contests, showing a keen interest in pushing the tempo as I mentioned. Indiana should be a willing participant in an up-and-down affair here though, noting that despite playing at a slower pace, the Hoosiers have knocked down 28, 30, 23 and 26 field goals over their last four games, scoring 74, 84, 63 and 67 points along the way. Take the over (9*). |
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03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 142.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oregon State and Oregon at 5:30 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that played worse defensively down the stretch than Oregon State. The Beavers check in having allowed a ridiculous 30+ made field goals in six of their last eight games. The last time they played in-state rival Oregon, they gave up 78 points on 31 made field goals despite the Ducks barely needing to break a sweat getting off just 56 field goal attempts. Here, I do think Oregon State can be along for the ride, however, noting that Oregon brings awful defensive form into this contest as well. The Ducks check in having yielded 31, 31, 25, 26, 27 and 32 made field goals over their last six games. That's despite four of their six opponents over that stretch hoisting up fewer than 60 FG attempts. While the first meeting between these two teams totalled 154 points back in early January, the aforementioned second matchup reached only 134 points. That was thanks to the Beavers hitting just 20-of-66 field goals including only five from beyond the arc. While the Beavers offense isn't going to wow anyone, that was arguably its worst performance of the season. They did ramp things up a bit down the stretch, knocking down at least 23 field goals in seven of their last nine games. Of course, we all remember Oregon State's incredible run to a Pac-12 championship last year. While that's probably not in the cards this year, I don't expect the Beavers to go down without a fight. Take the over (8*). |
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03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
WAC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Cal Baptist at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Marshall -3.5 v. Florida International | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Florida International at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Florida International picked the wrong time to go into a shooting slump, entering the C-USA Tournament on the heels of four consecutive losses, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Because of their late season woes, the Panthers draw a very capable, revenge-minded Marshall squad in their tournament opener on Tuesday. Marshall also enters the tourney on a losing skid, having dropped three in a row. I like the Thundering Herd's offense in this particular matchup, noting that FIU has allowed 31, 25 and 27 made field goals over its last three games, despite allowing 57 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those contests. Marshall will undoubtedly push the pace here (it averages 64 field goal attempts per game away from home this season) and if it is successful in doing so, I'm confident it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard against a vulnerable Panthers defense. FIU has made good on just 23, 22, 18 and 25 field goals over its last four contests. It shot well in both meetings against Marshall during the regular season, a big reason it was able to win both games. Keep in mind, those two contests could have gone either way with the Panthers prevailing by just four and one-point margins. There was really nothing special about either performance from FIU. Marshall is a favored for a reason here as it looks to finally put one over on FIU in the most important matchup of its season. Take Marshall (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. |
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03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Sunday. SMU won by nine points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Tulane certainly had its opportunities in that game as it got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts (compared to SMU's 52) but simply couldn't knock anything down, making good on just 24 of those 65 attempts, including only 7-of-19 from beyond the arc in the home defeat. Note that SMU shot the lights out from three-point range in that game, knocking down 15 threes and also made good on five more free throw attempts than Tulane, yet still only won by nine. You could argue that the Green Wave enter this rematch in better form offensively. Since February 5th, they've poured in 30, 20, 29, 29, 23, 18 and 28 made field goals. Even in the game where they only hit 18 they still only lost by five points at Temple. SMU continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Not only that but the Mustangs offense has sagged, making good on just 39-of-107 FG attempts over their last two games. While SMU will be taking a step down in class here, I expect Tulane to keep things interesting. Take Tulane (8*). |
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03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two SEC rivals totalled only 137 points this season. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to recent high-scoring results from both teams. I see a different story unfolding on Saturday, however. Note that LSU has held the opposition to an average of 19-for-54 shooting here at home this season. After falling short in a high-scoring game against Arkansas last time out, I'm not sure the Tigers want to get involved in a track meet against a more athletic Alabama squad here. The Crimson Tide's most recent game reached 158 points against Texas A&M but that was only thanks to both teams shooting the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. I don't expect the Tide to have such a difficult time containing an LSU offense that has topped out at 28 made field goals over its last four games and averages that exact number here at home this season. Keep in mind, in the first matchup between these two teams, LSU knocked down 10 three-pointers, well north of its season average, yet still only got to 67 points. Alabama benefited from 32 trips to the free throw line in that contest, a number I don't expect it to approach with the scene shifting to Baton Rouge for this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a 91-71 blowout win at USC on Tuesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats begin a two-game homestand to close out the regular season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 142 points. We're dealing with a slightly lower posted total this time around but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment was made. Stanford got off a whopping 70 field goal attempts in that game yet still only got to 57 points. Here, I don't expect the Cardinal to attempt nearly as many shots, noting that they've gotten off just 54, 58, 49 58, 54 and 51 FG attempts over their last six contests. On the flip side, Stanford has done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check lately, limiting its last five opponents to 70 points or less on 57 or fewer FG attempts. Arizona will obviously always be looking to push the pace, but I'm not convinced it will have to for a full 40 minutes here, noting it checks in as a nearly 20-point favorite at home. While the Wildcats offense gets all of the press, their defense deserves some credit as well as they've held opponents to just north of 62 points per game on a paltry 36% shooting at home this season. Stanford doesn't figure to pose much of a threat to those numbers as it averages just 22 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and South Florida at 9 pm et on Thursday. South Florida enters this game off four consecutive 'under' results while Memphis saw its most recent game stay 'under' the total despite scoring 80+ points in a rout of Wichita State. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair when the two teams meet up for their only regular season matchup on Thursday night. South Florida plays at an incredibly slow pace at home. For as poorly as things have gone for the Bulls at times this season, they have held opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 22-for-53 shooting on average here at home this season. The enter this game in fine form defensively, fresh off an upset win at Cincinnati, having held the opposition to just 20, 22, 16 and 19 made field goals over their last four games. Even with Memphis playing at a fairly fast pace lately, it has still managed to hold consecutive opponents to just 21 made field goals. Going back further, nine of the Tigers last 11 opponents have made good on 23 or fewer field goal attempts. Memphis itself has gotten off fewer than 60 FG attempts in four of its last five games. The only reason it was able to break 80 points last time out was because it shot the lights out (55% from the field). I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on George Washington minus the points over Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team struggling as badly as Duquense right now. The Dukes haven't won a game since January 8th and check into Wednesday's clash with George Washington having made a grand total of 79 field goals over their last four games, scoring 55 points or less in all four of those contests. On the flip side, they're not really offering up any defensive resistance, having allowed 29, 31, 29 and 27 made field goals over that stretch, despite none of those games being played at all that quick of a pace (those four opponents topped out at 59 field goal attempts). George Washington got bogged down by as superior George Mason squad on the road last time out but has been playing well in the longer-term picture, having gone 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. Credit the Colonials for limiting George Mason to just 21 made field goals in that 69-62 loss on Saturday. GWU has held three straight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. If it can do that here it should be able to win in a walk, noting that it yielded a whopping 76 FG attempts in its last matchup with Duquesne on February 16th but still gave up only 52 points in a 21-point win. Take George Washington (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington at 11 pm et on Monday. UCLA bounced back from a loss at Oregon to blast Oregon State by 39 points on Saturday. I look for the Bruins to build off of that incredible performance on Monday night in Washington. While UCLA isn't expected to have Johnny Juzang back for this game, that was certainly no obstacle on Saturday and I don't believe it will be tonight either. Washington is sagging defensively right now, having allowed 36, 30, 30, 27 and 24 made field goals, not to mention 60+ field goal attempts in nine straight games heading into Monday's contest. In stark contrast, UCLA has held each of its last seven opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts, allowing a grand total of only 96 made field goals over its last five games combined. Offensively, the Bruins are 'filling it up', knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last nine contests. This same matchup was no contest back on February 19th as the Bruins rolled to a 76-50 victory. Perhaps the Huskies can close the margin somewhat in this one, but not by enough to cover the very reasonable pointspread in my opinion. Take UCLA (6*). |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
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02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-22 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Texas' most recent game - a 61-55 loss at home against Texas Tech on Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Longhorns look to bounce back against another in-state rival in TCU. As I noted in Saturday's analysis, Texas has done an incredible job playing defense at home this season, allowing only 19 made field goals including only five made threes per game, also sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per contest. TCU doesn't figure to be a team that will easily break down the Longhorns defense. When these two teams met back on January 25th at TCU, the Horned Frogs scored only 50 points, knocking down just 18 field goals including only two shots from beyond the arc. Were it not for 21 trips to the free throw line, that could have been a truly embarrassing offensive performance (it was already bad enough considering TCU lost by a score of 73-50). Texas actually got off an uncharacteristically-high 65 field goal attempts in that contest, helping boost their scoring output. Consider the Longhorns average just 55 FG attempts per game, 54 per contest here at home. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-2 with Texas coming off an ATS loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 116.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-22-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Kansas | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Wildcats as they head to Allen Fieldhouse to challenge the rival Jayhawks on Tuesday night. Kansas State enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins but dropped a three-point decision at Oklahoma on Saturday, just staying inside the pointspread in the SU defeat. The Wildcats have shot sub-40% from the field in their last two games - one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. Note that they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive games shooting below 40% from the field this season. They allowed Oklahoma to shoot 51.9% from the field in Saturday's narrow loss. That's happened only twice previously this season and in their next game they've allowed opponents to shoot just 40-for-109 (36.7%) from the field. I realize they're facing a difficult challenge here against an elite Kansas squad. However, it is worth noting that the Jayhawks come into this game having scored 70+ points in six consecutive games. Prior to that stretch, Kansas had scored 70+ points in just four of its first seven Big 12 contests this season. Obviously, it would be an uphill battle for the Jayhawks to cover a pointspread as large as the one we're looking at tonight without scoring 70+ points. It's also notable that the Jayhawks have held three straight opponents to fewer than 70 points. They did so just once previously in Big 12 play this season and in their next game posted a close 78-75 win over tonight's opponent, Kansas State. The difference in that game was a 30-18 (21-11 made) free throw disparity in favor of the Jayhawks. I do have confidence that Kansas State can narrow that gap in tonight's game, while also keeping the game's pace in check, much like it did in the first meeting this season, helping ultimately keep the final score inside the number. Here, we'll note that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS after giving up 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 3.7 points on average in that spot. Take Kansas State (7*). |
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02-21-22 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 128 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville at 8 pm et on Monday. Eastern Illinois has been one of the best 'under' bets in the country this season, with 19 of its 26 lined games staying 'under' the total. Few teams play at a slower pace, as the Panthers rank 296th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). To compound matters, they rank a dreadful 357th in adjusted offensive efficiency. SIU-Edwardsville plays at a faster pace but doesn't fare much better offensively, ranking 327th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams have had a penchant for turning the basketball over. In fact, Edwardsville turned it over 19 times in the first meeting between these two teams this season yet Eastern Illinois still only managed to score 53 points despite all of those extra possessions. On the road, we've seen the Panthers average just 19 made field goals including an average of only six from beyond the arc. That's not to mention only eight made free throws per road game. In a game where SIU-Edwardsville figures to control proceedings and perhaps take the air out of the basketball with a sizable lead in the second half, I'm comfortable playing the 'under', even at a lower number than we saw in the first meeting this season (that game totalled only 119 points). Take the under (7*). |
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02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Liberty and Central Arkansas at 8 pm et on Monday. Central Arkansas checks into this game off three consecutive 'under' results but remains one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire country, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. A look at its home conference games shows totals of 181, 177, 167, 188, 154, 148 and 159 points. Liberty is coming off a tougher-than-expected 88-82 win over Stetson on Saturday. The Flames don't play at nearly the same break-neck pace as Central Arkansas but as we saw on Saturday, they're certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. That's thanks in large part to the fact that they knock down 11 three-pointers per game with not much of a drop-off in production at all on the road this season. Central Arkansas will certainly afford Liberty plenty of opportunities in this contest, noting that it yields 24 three-point attempts and 20 trips to the free throw line at home this season. It's worth noting that it has held three straight opponents to fewer than 80 points as it marks the first time that has happened all season. Don't count on the Bears accomplishing that feat for a fourth consecutive game on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-20-22 | Providence -3 v. Butler | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Butler at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Big East picture has certainly crystallized with teams like Providence, Villanova and UConn at the top and Butler, DePaul and Georgetown pulling up the rear. With Providence coming off a tough home loss to Villanova, I look for the Friars to take advantage of this bounce-back matchup against Butler on Sunday. The Friars already took the first meeting between these two teams this season but failed to cover the spread. Here, we're working with a more manageable spread, despite the fact that Butler has been an awful bet at home this season, going 4-9 ATS. While the Bulldogs are capable of staging an upset here at home, I'm confident the Friars will have their guard up off the loss to 'Nova - just their third defeat of the season. Take Providence (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Stetson v. Liberty -15 | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Stetson at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've had some success playing Stetson 'overs' this season but here I won't hesitate to switch gears and play the side, fading the road Hatters as they head to Liberty Arena to face the Flames. Liberty already defeated Stetson by 16 points on the road this season. It shot well in that contest but certainly didn't do anything special. In fact, Stetson ended up getting off three more three-point attempts and also got to the line 11 more times than Liberty in that contest. I'm confident we'll see the flip script in those two departments here. Liberty is coming off consecutive outright road losses as a favorite, dropping close games against Jacksonville and North Florida. It will be more than happy to take its frustrations out on Stetson here, noting that Liberty is 10-1 on its home floor this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 27 points per contest. Take Liberty (8*). |
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02-19-22 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Belmont -21.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville at 5 pm et on Saturday. Belmont enters this game on the heels of nine straight wins but has actually gone 0-5 ATS over its last five contests. Look for that latter streak to come to an end here. We certainly saw signs of the Bruins breaking out of their recent malaise last time out as they crushed Eastern Illinois by 24 points - still failing to cover as a monster 27-point favorite. The Bruins broke loose for 60+ field goal attempts in that game - knocking down an impressive 59% of them and now get to stay home to host an Edwardsville squad that has done nothing to slow opposing offenses away from home (or anywhere for that matter) this season. The last couple of meetings between these two teams have been a little closer than expected but keep in mind, we're just two and three meetings removed from Belmont wins by 32 and 52-point margins. Take Belmont (7*). |
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02-19-22 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -3 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Ball State at 5 pm et on Saturday. We faded Bowling Green last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided win by Miami-Ohio. That was on the road, where the Falcons have struggled all season. They do at least own a winning record at 8-5 here at home. They'll be looking to avenge a tough 81-80 loss on the road against Ball State back on New Year's Day. The two teams were virtual mirror images of one another on that day, with the exception being Ball State was able to knock down a few more of its shots. Here, we'll note that the Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. While Ball State was able to keep pace with Bowling Green at home, we should see a different story unfold here. Note that the Falcons average a blistering 87.2 points per game on their home floor. Ball State, meanwhile, has allowed opponents to shoot just shy of 47% from the field on the road, giving up north of 82 points per contest. With Ball State checking in a woeful 3-13 ATS when listed as a road underdog or 'pk going back to last season, we'll confidently back the hometown Falcons here. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State -12 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nicholls State minus the points over Houston Baptist at 4 pm et on Saturday. Houston Baptist enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins while Nicholls State has dropped the cash in four consecutive games. With that being said, Nicholls State continues to win, having recorded six straight victories. Houston Baptist has done a nice job masquerading as a quality offensive team lately, putting up 80+ points in three of its last four games but I expect that scoring run to grind to a halt here. Note that Nicholls State has held opponents to just under 67 points per game on sub-40% shooting here at home this season. It has done that while also playing at a blistering pace offensively, getting off an incredible 72 field goal attempts per game on its home floor, knocking down better than 50% of them. The first meeting between these two teams this season went Nicholls State's way by only 12 points, but the margin would have been much larger had it been able to knock down more than two of its 16 three-point attempts. Take Nicholls State (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 141 points back on February 1st. I don't think the Longhorns want any part of a similar type of contest here, noting that they allowed 77 points in that lopsided loss. Keep in mind, this is a Texas team that gives up just a shade over 50 points per game at home this season, on a ridiculously-low 49 field goal attempts. Texas Tech can play some defense too, as we saw in its impressive home win over Baylor earlier this week. The Red Raiders have held the opposition to 38% shooting on the road this season. This is without a doubt a low total, but it's actually higher than the closing number we saw in the first meeting between these two this season. With injury doubts for the Red Raiders (Kevin McCullar could miss again), I believe they'll be comfortable getting involved in a slugfest here. Expect an NCAA Tournament-like atmosphere for this one. Take the under (9*). |
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02-16-22 | Boise State v. Air Force +10.5 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Boise State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. When these two teams met back on January 18th in Boise, the Broncos prevailed by just six points. That was despite a wide 32-14 disparity in terms of free throw attempts in favor of the hometown Broncos, not to mention the fact that Air Force turned the basketball over a whopping 20 times. I would anticipate the Falcons improving in both of those areas with the scene shifting to Colorado Springs for Wednesday's rematch. Note that while the Falcons come into this game on the heels of five straight losses, Boise State has a streak of futility of its own having gone 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Off a home loss to Colorado State on Sunday, the Broncos will simply be looking to pick up a 'W' and move on against a stingy opponent in Air Force on Wednesday. Winning by margin is of little consequence but we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace down to a crawl and frustrating the opposition here at home this season, allowing an average of just 50 field goal attempts per contest. Also note that the Falcons are a solid 7-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. Take Air Force (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 137 | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 80+ point performances in winning efforts on Saturday. I don't expect either side to sniff out that number on Wednesday, however. Those respective 'over' results snapped two-game 'under' streaks for both teams. They also served to give us a bit of a higher total to work than we might have otherwise seen here considering the first meeting between the Bears and Red Raiders this season saw a closing total of just 135.5 in a game that totalled only 127 points. Texas Tech pulled off a stunning 65-62 upset victory in that one, thanks in large part to shooting just shy of 51% from the field. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here as Baylor has locked in defensively ever since that 83-59 loss in Kansas a week-and-a-half ago. Since then, the Bears have held Kansas State and Texas to 60 and 63 points, respectively, on a combined 41-of-115 (35.6%) shooting. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Texas Tech allowed more than 70 points. It has done a tremendous job on defense here at home this season, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-52 shooting on average while giving up just a shade over 58 points per game. In last year's meeting on this floor, Texas Tech held Baylor to just 68 points on 41.8% shooting but ultimately fell by a 68-60 score. Take the under (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Villanova v. Providence +4.5 | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence plus the points over Villanova at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Providence almost got caught looking past DePaul on its home floor on Saturday but ultimately prevailed by three points in overtime, never sniffing out an ATS cover in that contest. I think in some ways as a result of that sleepy performance, we know get to grab almost a handful of points with the Friars at home - where they're 14-0 this season - against Villanova. The Wildcats were involved in a tough game of their own on Saturday, outlasting Seton Hall by six points. Providence always seems to give Villanova trouble on this floor - even weaker Friars squads of years' past. Last season, Providence won by two points as a four-point home underdog. In 2019 and 2020 they lost by six and four points, respectively. In 2018, the Friars upset the Wildcats as a 9.5-point underdog. You get the picture. It's certainly worth noting that five of Villanova's six losses this season have come on the road, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.5 points per game. Providence checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS in an underdog role this season, actually managing to outscore opponents by 6.0 points on average in that situation. With super sixth-man Jared Bynum taking his game to another level over the last two games, leading the Friars in scoring on both contests, I like Providence's chances of keeping it rolling ahead of a return date against 'Nova on March 1st. Take Providence (6*). |
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02-15-22 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 163 | 112-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While there are times the oddsmakers can't set the total low enough (case in point our play on the Virginia-Virginia Tech 'under' last night - a sub-120 total), there are also situations where the number simply can't be set high enough. The latter is the case here in my opinion. We won a big play on a Buffalo 'over' last week - a game that reached 166 points despite its extremely lopsided nature against Eastern Michigan (Buffalo won 102-64). Here, I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair for the Bulls, but ultimately a game that will be equally, if not even higher scoring. Buffalo has taken its aggressiveness on offense to a whole new level lately, hoisting up 70+ field goal attempts in three of its last five games. The only two contests were it didn't get off 70+ shots came in lopsided affairs at Ohio (a 21-point loss) and at home against Central Michigan (a 20-point win). Bowling Green can run and gun with the best of them. In fact, only four other teams in the country rank higher in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). We successfully faded the Falcons in their most recent game as they fell by a 92-78 score at Miami-Ohio on Saturday. They've had no interest in trying to limit opponents scoring opportunities here at home, allowing 74.6 points per game on an average of 64 field goal attempts per contest. Offensively, the Falcons have been hard to handle here on their home floor, hoisting up a whopping 68 field goal attempts per game, resulting in north of 87 points per contest. These two teams met back in January in Buffalo - a game that totalled 187 points. We didn't see anything particularly out of the ordinary in that game, perhaps other than Buffalo getting to the free throw line 35 times (and making 33 of those). Even if we do temper expectations on that front, we still have plenty of wiggle room with this total sitting in the low-160's (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 143.5 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas at 9 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 137 points in a game where both teams played faster than usual. We're dealing with a slightly lower total for this one than we saw in that previous encounter but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. It's unlikely Kansas is going to shoot better than it has over its last four games, incredibly knocking down better than 51% of its field goal attempts in each of those four contests. Oklahoma State is fresh off a strong offensive showing of its own, scoring 81 points on 48% shooting but that came at the expense of West Virginia at home. Lost in that strong offensive performance was the fact that the Cowboys held the Mountaineers to just 31.7% shooting. That marks the second time in the last three games that Oklahoma State has held the opposition to sub-40% from the field. Note that the 'under' is on a long-term 24-15 run in this particular series. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 119.5 | 53-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Monday. At first glance, this looks like a pretty low total. In fact, it doesn't just look like a low total, it is. With that being said, it's warranted in my opinion. These two in-state rivals have met four times since the start of 2020 with those four games totalling 104, 109, 116 and 106 points with the latter result coming earlier this season. Both teams are rolling right now. The Cavaliers have won four in a row including a stunning upset win at Duke while the Hokies are winners of five straight games. The question will be which defense blinks first in this one as both are more than capable of stymieing the opposing offense. There have certainly been situations lately where the oddsmakers have gone a little too far in setting low totals in games involving these teams as Virginia has seen the 'over' cash in four of its last five games while Virginia Tech has posted a 6-2 o/u mark over its last eight. I don't expect that to be the case here as neither team gives an inch in this rivalry showdown. Take the under (7*). |
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02-13-22 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Sunday. Boise State is one of the stingiest home teams in the country, allowing just 53 field goal attempts per game (17 from beyond the arc) while sending opponents to the free throw line only 14 times per game. Yet here the Broncos are, coming off four consecutive 'over' results, with their last two games being played right here in Boise. I believe that has helped push this total a little too high. Colorado State isn't going to overwhelm anyone with its pace. In fact, the Rams play at an almost identical tempo to that of the Broncos. While they do average 73 points per game away from home, I don't see them coming close to that number against a Boise State defense that allows less than 60 points per game here at home. The Rams are fresh off a game that totalled just 115 points in a lopsided victory over Fresno State. They actually check in having shot 51% or better from the field in consecutive games but again, I don't see them approaching that level of success here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with Colorado State involved in a game with a total set between 130 and 139.5 points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Stony Brook v. Maine UNDER 139.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
CBB America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Maine at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 152 points but that's been far from the norm in this series with the last 10 matchups averaging a total of just 130 points. Stony Brook enters this game off a wild 87-85 win over UMass-Lowell - also not the norm for the Seawolves this season, noting that their previous three contests had all stayed 'under' the total. Stony Brook has had a bit of a difficult time controlling opponents' tempo on the road but shouldn't have such trouble here against a Maine squad that doesn't tend to get out and run here at home, averaging 56 field goal attempts per game (20 from three-point range) and gets to the free throw line an average of just 14 times per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Dartmouth v. Princeton OVER 139.5 | 40-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Princeton at 4 pm et on Saturday. Dartmouth has a tendency to yield to whatever tempo its opponent chooses to set, as we saw in the previous meeting between these two teams this season - a game that Princeton won by an 84-80 score. In this case, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers continue to push the pace, just as they have in their last four games, hoisting up 67, 64, 65 and 68 field goal attempts. Dartmouth got off 62 field goal attempts but couldn't make the most of them in a 62-60 loss at Brown last time out. Note that the Big Green have scored fairly consistently on the Ivy League road this season, racking up 71, 68, 76, 69 and 60 points in five conference road tilts. Princeton hasn't been held to fewer than 72 points since way back on November 24th at Monmouth. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor here at home this season, shooting better than 50% from the field and knocking down 11-of-28 three-point attempts per contest. With Dartmouth playing its fourth straight game away from home, it will need to push the pace itself in order to keep up. The good news is, the Big Green have actually shot better from beyond the arc on the road this season, knocking down an average of 10 triples per game. Take the over (9*). |
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02-12-22 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -1 | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio minus the points over Bowling Green at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect Miami-Ohio to have opportunities abound in this one as it looks to post a second straight win after snapping a five-game losing streak with a win over Western Michigan last time out. Bowling Green has managed to go just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season as it has had no luck at all trying to contain opposing offenses. The Falcons check in allowing 62 field goal attempts per game, 28 of those from three-point range and 22 free throw attempts on the road this season. Not surprisingly it all adds up to giving up just shy of 81 points per game away from home. While the Redhawks have struggled as a whole lately, and certainly from an ATS perspective, they do continue to do a good job of buttoning up opposing offenses here at home. By contrast, they allow just 57 field goal attempts and give up only 15 trips to the free throw line here on their home floor. Bowling Green took the first meeting between these two teams by an 87-83 score at home in early January. The only real difference in that one was that the Falcons had a 23-9 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, knocking down 12 more of those freebies than the Redhawks. Miami-Ohio got off a whopping 44 three-point attempts in that game, making good on 15 of them. Look for the Redhawks to get their revenge at home on Saturday. Take Miami-Ohio (9*). |
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02-12-22 | Sacred Heart -1.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
CBB NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacred Heart minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 1 pm et on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse Division I college basketball team than Fairleigh Dickinson this season. KenPom ranks them ahead of only eight other teams in the country and I think even that is a fairly forgiving ranking. The Knights lone victory since the start of January came against another awful NEC squad in Central Connecticut State. Sacred Heart certainly doesn't bring much 'wow factor' either but it has at least been playing competitive basketball in-conference. Just one week ago it pulled out a hard-fought overtime win on the road against St. Francis-Brooklyn and just two nights prior to that took LUI-Brooklyn down to the wire in a 79-75 road loss. These two teams just met back on January 15th with Sacred Heart prevailing by a score of 77-71. FDU lost that game by six points despite getting off a whopping 70 field goal attempts compared to Sacred Heart's 56. The Knights also won the turnover battle by a 14-11 margin in that game. I don't expect them to repeat either of those feats on Saturday as I look for Sacred Heart to dictate the tempo and ultimately pick up a win to gain some ground in the NEC (it enters Saturday's action just a half-game out of fifth place while FDU sits in last place). Take Sacred Heart (10*). |
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02-10-22 | Hofstra v. Drexel -1 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on Drexel minus the points over Hofstra at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been polar opposites in the luck department this season and as a result Hofstra checks in with the better overall record and a one-game edge in the Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, Hofstra ranks 106th in the country in luck rating - a metric developed by KenPom - while Drexel checks in 291st. With that being said, both teams come in off consecutive wins. I believe Drexel is better positioned to keep it going on Thursday, however, as it looks to avenge an earlier three-point loss at Hofstra back on January 17th. Note that the Dragons are 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.7 points on average. Better still, they're 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 4.6 points in that spot. Note that Hofstra gets to the free throw line five fewer times per game on the road than Drexel does at home, while also averaging one less made three-pointer per contest on two more attempts. Off consecutive emotional wins at home (one came in overtime against James Madison and the other by two points against UNC-Wilmington), I look for Hofstra to come up short on the road on Thursday. Take Drexel (10*). |
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02-09-22 | High Point v. Presbyterian UNDER 128 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between High Point and Presbyterian at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams are coming off very different results last time out as High Point outlasted UNC-Asheville by a 91-83 score in overtime while Presbyterian fell by a 74-69 score at Hampton. That most recent game was at home for High Point. It has struggled mightily on the road, winning just once in 10 tries. Presbyterian has proven to be a very frustrating team to play against, particularly on this floor, where it has held opponents to just 50 field goal attempts per game. For its part, High Point has had a tough time getting into any sort of rhythm on the road, getting off just 51 field goal attempts per contest. The Panthers also get to the free throw line five times less than their season average away from home. With all of that being said, High Point has also done a nice job of controlling the tempo on the road, giving up just 51 field goal attempts per game. In other words, I'm not expecting a free-flowing affair here. Presbyterian is actually coming off consecutive 'over' results - the first time we've seen that since December 6th and 12th. High Point's most recent game also found its way 'over' the total. We haven't seen consecutive games involving the Panthers go 'over' the total since December 29th and 31st with those two games coming against Michigan State and Kentucky (High Point allowed 81 and 92 points in those two games). Presbyterian has allowed just 57.7 points per game when playing at home off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-6 with High Point having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo OVER 148.5 | Top | 64-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
CBB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo enters this game off consecutive 'under' results. I expect that streak to be short-lived, however. No team has struggled more to control tempo (perhaps I should word that another way given the Bulls actually prefer to play at a fast pace), as Buffalo has allowed opponents to get off an incredible 68 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Not surprisingly, Bulls home games have averaged north of 149 points per contest. Eastern Michigan doesn't operate at a blazing fast pace but it has picked it up after a couple of dismal campaigns, averaging just over 71 points per game this season. The Eagles are going to have to keep pace with the Bulls if they want to snap their current three-game skid on Tuesday. Note that Eastern Michigan has been held to 71 points or less in three straight games but this is a team that has scored 90+ points on three previous occasions this season and an arguably worse Eagles squad did manage to score 77 points (in a game that totalled 169) points in last year's meeting here in Buffalo. As I mentioned, the Bulls are coming off consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Keep in mind, the first of those two games came against one of the MAC's better teams in Ohio and the other against one of the conference's worst squads in Central Michigan. I look for a big bust-out performance from the Buffalo offense, noting that it averages just shy of 80 points per game at home this season, where it averages 28 three-point attempts per game (two more than its season average) and gets to the free throw line an average of 22 times per contest (four above its season average). EMU has allowed 80+ points in four of its last five games and has given up 90 or more points on three previous occasions this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with Eastern Michigan coming off consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 150.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 145 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. Wilmington and Hofstra at 5 pm et on Monday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams in as many weeks after Wilmington prevailed by a 78-72 score at home on January 29th. The Seahawks are the surprising leaders in the CAA right now with head coach Takayo Siddle squeezing every last drop out of the talent he has at hand. As expected, Wilmington is playing fast and comes into this game off a 92-point explosion against William and Mary last time out. Of course, going up-tempo plays right into the hands of Hofstra, which checks in ranked 112th in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). Aaron Estrada has absolutely gone off for the Pride, most recently pouring in 35 points in Saturday's overtime win over James Madison. The Pride have scored 70+ points in six of their last seven games and come into this one on the heels of three straight 'over' results. Note that in that first meeting with Wilmington, the Pride knocked down only three of 18 three-point attempts. Considering they shoot 10-of-28 from beyond the arc here at home, I would expect a vast improvement over that performance here. Note that the Seahawks have held just one conference opponent to fewer than 70 points on the road this season, that being a highly-disappointing Northeastern squad in a game that still found its way 'over' the total. The 'over' has cashed in five of Wilmington's last seven games overall. Note that the second meeting between these two teams has been higher scoring than the first in each of the last three years in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-22 | Washington v. Stanford -4.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 4 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this spot sets up for Stanford as it comes off a disappointing home loss against Washington State and hosts a Washington squad fresh off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an upset win at Cal last time out. Note that the Huskies have gone winless in two previous tries coming off a road win this season, failing to cover the spread in both of those games as well. Meanwhile, Stanford is a solid 88-63 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. The Cardinal improve on their terrific 9-2 home record here. Take Stanford (8*). |
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02-06-22 | Akron v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Akron at 4 pm et on Sunday. It's certainly been a rough ride for the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio lately as they've lost four games in a row SU and nine straight ATS entering Sunday's rematch with Akron (the Zips took Friday's meeting by a 66-55 score at home). Note that Akron has closed as a road favorite just once previously this season, winning that game by just four points as a 12.5-point favorite against Central Michigan. Despite their recent struggles, the Redhawks are still a winning team at home this season at 6-5 SU. The Zips, meanwhile, are 4-5 SU and ATS on the road. The Redhawks actually got off seven more field goal attempts than the Zips on Friday but Akron ultimately held a 17-7 edge in terms of free throw attempts and shot 50% from the field in the win. Take Miami-Ohio (7*). |
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02-06-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee +10.5 v. Cleveland State | 71-84 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Cleveland State at 3 pm et on Sunday. Milwaukee enters this game on the heels of four straight losses, both SU and ATS, with all four of those setbacks coming by double-digit margins. Keep in mind, their previous season-high in terms of consecutive double-digit losses was three. The schedule obviously plays a role and here Milwaukee plays its fourth consecutive Horizon League road game. Needless to say, the Panthers will have no trouble getting up for Cleveland State - one of the best teams in the conference. Here, we'll note that the Vikings are a miserable 1-7 ATS after winning two of their last three games ATS this season, as is the case here. They're also 4-14 ATS when coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, also the situation here after their blowout win over Wisconsin-Green Bay on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8*). |
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02-06-22 | Marist +4.5 v. St. Peter's | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marist plus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. The Marist Red Foxes check into this game off four consecutive losses, both SU and ATS but I'm confident we'll see them give St. Peter's a serious run on Sunday afternoon. The Peacocks easily dispatched Quinnipiac here at home on Friday - their fourth straight ATS victory. Here, they'll have their hands full with a Marist squad that has gone 15-6 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons while St. Peter's owns a woeful 34-53 ATS mark when playing consecutive home games. While Marist dropped the first meeting between these two teams in late January, it hasn't lost consecutive matchups with St. Peter's since 2019-20. Take Marist (9*). |
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02-06-22 | Green Bay +10 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 55-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Green Bay plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 2 pm et on Sunday. Wisconsin-Green Bay enters this game off four consecutive losses - all on the road - but I expect it to hang tough in Fort Wayne on Sunday afternoon, noting that it has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Green Bay 'only' lost by 16 points against a superior Cleveland State squad on the road last time out, despite allowing the Vikings to shoot a blistering 63.5% from the field. It won't be difficult for Green Bay to get up for this one but I think it will be for Fort Wayne, which checks in off a double-digit home win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (8*). |
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02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown plus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Sunday. Providence has now won six consecutive games, including an upset victory at St. John's last time out. Since defeating Georgetown by eight points (but failing to cover) on January 20th, the Friars have been involved in four straight highly-contested games against Butler, Xavier, Marquette and St. John's. It's going to be very difficult for Ed Cooley's team to avoid a letdown here. Meanwhile, the Hoyas haven't won a game since December 15th against Howard. They do check in 3-2-1 ATS over their last six games though and catch the Friars laying points on the road for the first time this season. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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02-05-22 | Western Illinois v. UMKC | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on UMKC minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Western Illinois' most recent game - a stunning upset win on the road against Oral Roberts on Thursday. Here, I suspect it will be in tough trying to replicate that performance against a surging UMKC squad on Saturday night. Western Illinois has had no ability whatsoever to control the tempo, or at least keep it in check on the road this season. Nor has it had any interest in doing so. That spells trouble here, though, as it faces a UMKC team that is just as comfortable playing an up-tempo game at home, where it averages just shy of 79 points per game on north of 47% shooting. UMKC enters this game having won five of its last six overall, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. That includes an eight-point victory at Western Illinois earlier this week. The Roos won that game despite a 10-point disparity in favor of the Leathernecks at the free throw line. While Western Illinois would love go get some quick revenge here, it will be in tough as the Roos have done a tremendous job of controlling the tempo of opponents here at home, allowing only 49 field goal attempts per contest. Add in the letdown factor with the Leathernecks having shot well above their season average in that most recent game against Oral Roberts and I like the value being offered with UMKC at a virtual pk'em price here. Take UMKC (8*). |
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02-05-22 | UNLV v. Utah State UNDER 139 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Utah State at 6 pm et on Saturday. Utah State got off an uncharacteristically-high 67 field goal attempts in its most recent game - a 78-62 rout of lowly San Jose State on Thursday. Off that 'over' result, we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday, noting that the 'under' has cashed on both occasions that situation has come up in conference play involving the Aggies this season. Utah State enters this game having scored 70+ points in four straight games. While UNLV isn't known for its defense, it has actually held opponents to a slightly slower pace on the road compared to at home this season, giving up fewer field goal and free throw attempts per game. The Rebels don't play at a particularly fast pace themselves, checking in 181st in the nation in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). They've gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in four of nine Mountain West games this season but scored more than 55 points in just two of those contests, with those coming against two of the conference's weakest teams in New Mexico and San Jose State. Utah State has not surprisingly done a terrific job of defending here at home this season, holding opponents to just 18 three-point attempts per game (five below their season average allowed) and 15 free throw attempts per contest. Note that the 'under' is 15-6 with Utah State coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 132.5 points. Take the under (9*). |
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02-05-22 | Sacred Heart v. St Francis NY OVER 142.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacred Heart and St. Francis (NY) at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a rematch of a game between these two teams on January 27th. St. Francis took that meeting by a 71-66 score in a game that stayed 'under' the closing total. As a result we're dealing with a slightly lower total here, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. That game was played at a relatively slow pace with both teams hoisting up sub-60 field goal attempts and a combined 26 trips to the free throw line. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacred Heart hasn't had a hope of slowing down opponents on the road, particularly of late. It has yielded 62, 69, 63 and 65 field goal attempts in four road games since New Year's Eve and while St. Francis (NY) doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, it does play considerably faster at home and I expect it to be afforded plenty of good looks in this one. Note that opponents are shooting a ridiculous 49.3% against Sacred Heart in its road games this season, where it allows just shy of 80 points per game. I do think that Sacred Heart can stay competitive in this one, however. It shot a miserable 5-of-16 from beyond the arc in that first meeting this season but that could be considered an anomaly as the Pioneers average nine made threes per game on the season, with that average holding steady on the road. Noting that St. Francis sends opponents to the free throw line 19 times per game on average, I would also anticipate Sacred Heart improving on its 10 free throw attempts in the first matchup. When these two teams last played on this floor last February they combined to score 170 points in a wild 88-82 Sacred Heart victory. That was the back half of a two-game set with the front-end resulting in 164 total points. Noting that both teams bring plenty of returning experience to the table, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-22 | Princeton v. Cornell OVER 157.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Princeton and Cornell at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season stayed comfortably 'under' the total as Princeton prevailed by a 72-70 score at home. There were some notable takeaways from that game. Cornell got all the looks it wanted but simply couldn't knock down enough shots, noting that it shot 43% from the field on 62 attempts. It's worth mentioning that the Big Red were playing their second game in as many days on that occasion. Here, we'll see a rested Big Red bunch having not played since last Sunday (in typical Ivy League scheduling). As further illustration to how many points Cornell left on the table in that first meeting, it made just 9-of-26 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line an uncharacteristically-low nine times (but did make nine of those freebies). The Big Red check in an impressive seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will certainly look to dictate the pace against a very beatable Princeton defense here. On the flip side, the Tigers should be more than happy to be along for the ride in a potential track meet, noting that they've scored 70+ points in 13 consecutive games. This isn't the same fundamentally-sound Princeton defense we've been accustomed to seeing, however, as it has allowed 80, 76, 81, 73 and 80 points in five road games this season. The fact that the Tigers baited a slow Dartmouth squad (334th in adjusted tempo) into a game that totalled 164 points in their most recent road game is telling. Princeton is more than capable of shooting the lights out and I suspect it will be even more set on pushing the pace after Cornell was seemingly the more aggressive offensive side in the last meeting. It's worth noting that the Tigers were without sharp-shooter Jaelin Llewellyn in the first meeting, which certainly hampered their offense. He knocked down six threes in Princeton's most recent game - an 80-74 loss to Yale last Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | UCLA v. Arizona OVER 146.5 | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a closing total north of 150 points in the first matchup between these two teams last week. That game ultimately fizzled with just 134 points as UCLA rolled to a double-digit victory. The Wildcats followed up that loss with another unimpressive offensive showing, albeit in a double-digit win of their own over Arizona State, scoring just 67 points on 32% shooting. Keep in mind, Arizona still ranks second in the nation in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Wildcats offense in this one. UCLA hasn't posted monster offensive numbers away from home, but that's had a lot to do with the opposition they've faced. The Bruins simply haven't had to ramp it up offensively in order to secure road victories. Again, I expect a different story to unfold here. While the Bruins defense has been terrific, it also checks in 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Here, we'll note that Arizona has averaged 82.1 points per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totalling an average of 148.2 points (16-game sample size). The fact that Arizona shot just 30% on a whopping 75 field goal attempts in the last meeting indicates plenty of points were left on the table in that one. Also note that the game featured a grand total of just 16 free throw attempts. Noting that last year's meeting in Tucson totalled 157 points, I'm quite comfortable playing the 'over' in this rematch. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts OVER 161.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
CBB Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either of these teams to pump the breaks one bit in this rematch of a wild 87-86 Oral Roberts victory in January. We're talking about two teams that rank well inside the nation's top-50 in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) with neither boasting a great deal of defensive prowess. Western Illinois scored 'only' 75 points in a disappointing home loss against UMKC last time out. The Leathernecks left plenty of points on the table in that game as they turned the ball over 15 times and shot just 44% from the field. That marked the second time in their last four games that they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 56% from the field. Oral Roberts is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 100 and 89 points in wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Denver. While Western Illinois will pose a more difficult challenge, the Golden Eagles should be up for it. They average an incredible 87.7 points per game at home this season. That's on the strength of 13-of-31 shooting from beyond the arc. You could argue that Western Illinois was fortunate to only lose by a single point in the first meeting between these two teams this season as ORU knocked down just nine three-pointers in the game. Speaking of that contest, Western Illinois shot a woeful 40% from the field but isn't likely to shy away from pushing the pace again here, noting that it did get plenty of good looks on 64 field goal attempts, not to mention 30 free throws in that narrow loss. While this total has been adjusted by a couple of points, I don't believe it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Binghamton v. Stony Brook OVER 141 | 77-61 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Binghamton and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw 145 total points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, a game that was closer than expected with Stony Brook going on the road and winning by a 74-71 score. Stony Brook left a ton of points on the table in that game as it shot a miserable 34% from the field, knocking down only five three-pointers. Binghamton essentially bailed the Seawolves out, sending them to the free throw line a whopping 34 times. I'm confident we'll see Stony Brook stay aggressively offensively and this time around, absolutely go off against a Binghamton squad that generally doesn't play a lick of defense, ranking 268th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). Note that Stony Brook ranks 114th in the country in adjusted tempo and should relish the opportunity to get loose after facing a tough three-game stretch that included matchups against Albany, Vermont and New Hampshire. The Seawolves are averaging just shy of 75 points per game, getting off 63 field goal attempts per contest here at home this season. On the flip side, I do think Binghamton can be along for the ride offensively here. It's certainly worth noting that the oddsmakers are anticipating another reasonably competitive affair with the spread holding steady in single-digits. Stony Brook, while one of the America East's elite teams, ranks 291st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Binghamton averages over 72 points per game the last six times it plays on the road off a conference loss, as is the case here. It should be able to get off plenty of scoring opportunities here against a Stony Brook squad that despite forcing an average of 14 turnovers per game here at home, still gives up 60 field goal attempts per contest on average. Take the over (8*). |
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02-02-22 | Hartford v. New Hampshire -4.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
CBB America East Game of the Year. My selection is on New Hampshire minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These teams may be heading in opposite directions from an ATS perspective, with Hartford having gone 5-1 ATS over its last six games and New Hampshire managing just one ATS victory in its last seven, but I look for the Wildcats to right the ship and deliver a convincing victory on Wednesday. This is a rematch from a game played in Hartford back on January 19th. The Hawks prevailed by double-digits in that game, turning in a near-perfect offensive performance, shooting better than 52% from the field while turning the ball over just six times. Since then, Hartford has only managed to split its last four games but does come into this one off a 12-point victory at lowly Maine - its second consecutive win. New Hampshire has been alternating wins and losses over its last nine games and checks in off a seven-point home loss but that came against one of America East's elite teams in Stony Brook. Consecutive games against Hartford and Maryland-Baltimore County will give the Wildcats a chance to gain some traction in the conference before a return date against Stony Brook next week. They've certainly had this home game against the Hawks circled since that earlier loss in Hartford. UNH didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, shooting a miserable 37% from the field. The shots simply weren't falling but I expect a different story to unfold here in New Hampshire on Wednesday. Credit the Wildcats for managing to shoot just shy of 47% in that most recent loss to Stony Brook. It undoubtedly catches Hartford in a letdown spot here after the Hawks shot a blistering 60% from the field against a weak Maine squad last time out. Take New Hampshire (10*). |
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02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's OVER 146 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Providence and St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I expected this total to get bet up considerably in the morning hours on Tuesday but that simply hasn't been the case. Noting that the first meeting totalled 156 points earlier this season - with a load of points left on the table - I'm comfortable playing the 'over' in Tuesday's rematch. The Friars are coming off consecutive 'under' results while the Red Storm have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total. That serves to give us some value with the 'over' on Tuesday. Note that St. John's still ranks top-four in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Red Storm will certainly look to run the Friars out of the gym in this one with Providence playing on just one day of rest after successfully avenging an earlier loss against Marquette. In that first matchup between these two teams this season St. John's shot just north of 41% from the field, including 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. It also missed nine of 17 free throw attempts. The Friars hung 83 points on the board despite shooting just 3-of-16 from three-point range. Note that the Red Storm are allowing an average of nine made threes per game here at home this season, not to mention the fact they send opponents to the free throw line an average of 20 times per contest (Providence gets to the charity stripe 21 times per game and shoots better than 73% from there). Take the over (9*). |
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02-01-22 | Boston College v. Virginia -8.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College at 6 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a tough road loss at Notre Dame on Saturday. They've now alternated wins and losses over their last eight games and I expect them to successfully bounce back once again here as they host Boston College on Tuesday. The Eagles delivered a double-digit win over Pitt on Sunday. I simply don't feel Boston College's ceiling in terms of offensive production is high enough to pose much of a challenge against the Cavaliers defense here. The Eagles generally play at Virginia's preferred pace. Boston College has actually relied quite heavily on getting to the free throw line for offensive production this season, averaging 18 attempts per game. Virginia has been stingy in that department, however, particularly here at home where they play tough defense but do so with plenty of discipline, sending opponents to the free throw line just nine times per contest. Virginia certainly isn't known for its offense but it does come into this game having shot better than 45% in three of its last four games, scoring 63 points or more in all four games. I'm expecting the Cavaliers to get well into the 60's again in this one and that will prove to be enough for the win and cover. Take Virginia (10*). |
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01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most in this Mountain West matchup on Monday night as San Diego State looks to bounce back from a disappointing lopsided loss at Utah State. That game was played last Wednesday night so the Aztecs have had five days to chew on it and I expect them to come out with plenty of fire as a result on Monday. Whether that fire leads to offensive success is up for debate but I'm confident the Aztecs will put their best foot forward defensively. Note that off its four previous losses this season, San Diego State allowed just 63, 47, 56 and 55 points in its next game with the 'under' going a profitable 3-1. The only game that didn't stay 'under' the total still reached just 135 points. Given how well New Mexico has been playing (7-1-1 ATS over its last nine games) I don't expect it to let San Diego State run up the score here. The Lobos are by no means an elite defensive team, but they're a confident bunch right now and I do feel they can handle San Diego State's very manageable pace. Note that the Aztecs average just a shade over 67 points per game at home this season and 70.8 points per game when coming off a loss. The Aztecs did score 80 points on 52% shooting in a win over UNLV in their most recent home game, but they're also just two games removed from an ugly 37-point on 28% shooting performance against Boise State on this same floor. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 with San Diego State priced as a home favorite of between -12.5 and -15 points over the last three seasons with those games totalling an average of just 125.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-31-22 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State OVER 156 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Washington and Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. If Eastern Washington wants to snap out of its two-game mini slide, it's going to have to keep up with one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Weber State on Monday. The Wildcats enter this game as hot as any team in the country shooting the basketball, knocking down 55%, 52%, 50% and 58% of their FG attempts while scoring 95, 92, 85 and 79 points over their last four games. While they 'only' got to 79 in their most recent contest that was only due to the lopsided nature of their win over Sacramento State. I do expect Eastern Washington to pose more of a challenge here. The Eagles opened their current road trip with an 89-point explosion at Idaho State but then got bogged down in a pair of games against Montana State and Montana. After shooting sub-39% in consecutive contests I look for the Eagles to get back on track here. They can run with the best of them, ranking 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo. Take the over (9*). |
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01-30-22 | New Orleans +1.5 v. McNeese State | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over McNeese State at 6 pm et on Sunday. This is a big revenge spot for New Orleans after it suffered a strange 92-82 loss to McNeese State back on January 6th - a game in which UNO knocked down just one three-pointer and one that saw a whopping 88 combined free throw attempts from the two teams. Since then, New Orleans has reeled off seven straight wins while McNeese State 3-4 SU and 2-4 ATS in lined contests. It's also worth noting that New Orleans turned the basketball over 18 times compared to McNeese State's 13 in that earlier meeting. On the season, UNO averages two fewer turnovers per contest. New Orleans has consistently drummed this McNeese State defense, putting up 82, 99 and 82 points in the last three meetings, winning two of those games. Simply put, too much weight is being placed on that earlier matchup between these two. Look for New Orleans' talent and experience to win out in this one. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Atlantic Sun Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Kentucky and Stetson at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of upside playing this one 'over' the total with the number sitting in the high-130's. We'll certainly see a contrast in styles here as Eastern Kentucky ranks top-25 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Stetson sits well north of 300th in that category. With that being said, Stetson is just two games removed from a 91-point performance in a narrow two-point home loss against Florida-Gulf Coast. There's reason to believe we'll see Stetson push the pace a little more than usual here after it was held to just 47 points on 28% shooting last time out against Bellarmine. Despite its break-neck place, Eastern Kentucky hasn't posted an 'over' result since the first week of December. Keep in mind, it has regularly seen totals posted in the 150's and 160's. We're dealing with a much lower total here. Stetson has high hopes this season after appearing in the CBI Tournament last April and returning a wealth of talent. Rob Perry being sidelined hasn't helped its cause but in theory there is plenty of depth - particularly at the guard position - to make up for his absence. Regardless, I believe the Hatters will be afforded plenty of good looks against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Kentucky squad here as both teams do their part in helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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01-29-22 | West Virginia +8.5 v. Arkansas | 68-77 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Arkansas at 2 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up for the Mountaineers as they look to snap a four-game skid. They should be happy to get out of the Big 12 for a game at least, even though they catch Arkansas off five consecutive victories. Give West Virginia credit for its 13-6 overall record as it has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom). Here, we'll note that these two teams average an identical number of made threes per game despite West Virginia attempting two fewer per contest. The Mountaineers also send opponents to the free throw line three fewer times per game and force three more turnovers per contest. (despite playing at a slower pace). I simply don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the oddsmakers would lead you to believe. Take West Virginia (9*). |