Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs -136 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -136 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Despite his recent struggles, I think this is the right spot to bring potential trade deadline piece Drew Smyly back to the starting rotation for the Cubs. He hasn't pitched since July 8th when he was rocked by the Yankees in the Bronx - his third straight poor outing. Still, we know the veteran left-hander is capable of much better and he should be happy to be facing the Nationals on Monday - a team he held to one earned run over seven innings in a 5-1 victory against earlier this season. In fact, for his career, Smyly owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in seven previous outings against Washington. It's a much different story for Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore against the Cubs. He checks in sporting a career 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, albeit in just two previous starts against Chicago. The Cubs have feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, going 16-11 while averaging 5.6 runs per game. While Gore has managed to lower his walks and increase his strikeouts per nine innings compared to his rookie campaign last year, he's giving up far too many hits (9.2 per nine innings) and home runs (1.4 per nine innings). The Nationals bullpen has been a mess all season, compiling a 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and things don't figure to get better with Hunter Harvey, who had grabbed the closer's role converting nine saves, expected to hit the I.L. with a forearm injury. Cubs closer Adbert Alzolay was pressed into action yesterday in a non-save situation and didn't fare particularly well but that appearance was by design to get him loose after an idle stretch. I'm confident he can bounce back if called into the game on Monday. While the Cubs 'pen hasn't pitched particularly well lately, it is still well-positioned to succeed having logged only 21 2/3 innings collectively over the last seven games. At home this season, Chicago relievers have combined to post a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Rays have now lost seven straight games including the first two contests in this series. I do expect them to finally snap their skid on Sunday as they send Zach Eflin to the hill against Bryce Elder of the Braves. Eflin has been terrific this season, logging a 3.09 FIP and 0.98 WHIP to go along with a 9-4 record - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers. He should be happy to be facing the Braves - an opponent he saw plenty of during his days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East. Note that Eflin owns a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 career outings against Atlanta. Bryce Elder is having an outstanding season for the Braves as well. With that being said, I do think there has been some reason for concern (I use that term loosely) noting that he has issued eight walks over his last three starts and is coming off an outing in which he struck out only one batter over 6 2/3 innings against the Guardians. The Rays offense has been completely out of sorts but we do know what their lineup is capable of, noting they still average 5.4 runs per game this season. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While the Braves relief corps has been more effective lately, it is worth noting that the Rays were able to keep most of their key relievers idle thanks to Saturday's lopsided result. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-06-23 | Cubs v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Cubs have taken the last two games in this series after dropping the opener on Monday. I look for Milwaukee to answer back in Thursday's series finale. Marcus Stroman will get the start for Chicago. We've seen some regression from the right-hander after a red hot start to the campaign as he has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits over his last two outings spanning just nine innings of work. That's to be expected. Stroman has allowed only 6.7 hits per nine innings this season. He hasn't held opposing batters to fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings since way back in his sophomore season in 2015 and that was an injury-shortened one (he worked only 27 innings). He has admittedly shut the door on the Brewers in three starts against them since the start of last season but here he'll be starting on short rest (four days) and even if he does pitch well there's no guarantee the Cubs up-and-down bullpen can close it out. Note that normally reliable setup man Mark Leiter Jr. has allowed four earned runs in his last two appearances and closer Adbert Alzolay has pitched in each of the last two games and may not be available as a result on Thursday. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He figures to be in line for some positive regression, noting that he has given up 8.1 hits per nine innings - his highest total since the 2019 campaign. The Brewers have actually lost Peralta's last two starts. They haven't lost three Peralta starts in a row since last August. We've seen encouraging signs out of the right-hander lately as he has yielded four hits or less in four straight starts and struck out at least eight batters in three of his last five trips to the hill. That comes on the heels of a stretch that saw him strike out five batters or fewer in five consecutive outings. The Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering last night's contest sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games but has been reliable for the most part this season, converting 25 saves while blowing only 10. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 12-11 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Houston at 2:05 pm et on Monday. The Astros have taken two of the first three games of this series but I look for the Rangers to earn a split in Monday's series-finale. Cristian Javier will get the start for Houston. He hasn't seemed quite right lately as he checks in having allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch he struck out just six batters in 17 2/3 innings of work. We've certainly seen some regression from Javier this season as he enters sporting a 4.10 FIP after logging a sparkling 3.16 FIP last year. Note that Javier is also allowing a career-high 8.0 walks per nine innings after yielding an unsustainable 6.0 or less over each of his first three big league seasons. Finally I'll note that Javier will be starting on just four days' rest on Monday. Martin Perez will counter for Texas. He'll make his second straight start on full rest after holding the Tigers to just two earned runs on four hits over six innings in an 8-3 Rangers victory last week. Perez hasn't necessarily enjoyed a banner year to this point, posting a 4.86 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts. Those numbers have a lot to do with a rocky start to the season, however. He enters this outing having held six of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or less, working at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Astros do hold a slight edge in terms of the bullpens but the Rangers do come in in fairly good shape having entered yesterday's game having logged only 18 2/3 relief innings over the last seven games and 12 fewer innings than the Astros relief corps on the season. Take Texas (8*). |
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06-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as both the Diamondbacks and Angels are coming off consecutive losses. I like Los Angeles to bounce back as it hands the ball to Griffin Canning against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Henry has inexplicably posted a perfect 6-0 team record over his last six starts. I say inexplicably because he still owns a lofty 5.44 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. The D'Backs bats have been bailing him out but I believe they'll be hard-pressed to do so on Friday. Note that Henry's poor overall numbers this season have been virtually on par with the ones he posted during his rookie campaign last year (5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings pitched). Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has been good but certainly not great this season. Arizona's relief corps enters this series sporting a collective 4.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Griffin Canning got off to a bit of a shaky start this season but perhaps that was to be expected after he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to a back injury. Canning has certainly rounded into form lately, pitching as well as he has at any point during his big league career, allowing just nine earned runs in 36 innings of work over his last six starts to lower his FIP to 4.53 and his WHIP to 1.16. The Angels have handled Canning the right way this season, allowing him to pitch on full rest (five days or more) in all 12 starts. While Los Angeles' bullpen has suffered some regression lately, it still owns a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season with 28 saves converted and only 13 blown (entering yesterday's action). Closer Carlos Estevez has been kept idle over the last two games so he should be good to go on Friday if needed. He has racked up 20 saves already this season while posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 33 innings. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-28-23 | White Sox +108 v. Angels | 11-5 | Win | 108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox have dropped the first two games in this series as their bats have gone silent against the Angels pitching staff. I do think they're set up well to avoid a third straight loss on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Lucas Giolito against Jaime Barria of the Angels. Giolito is enjoying a bit of a renaissance season after a down year in 2022. His hits and walks allowed were up considerably last year and as a result his WHIP hovered around 1.44. This year, he's lowered that WHIP to 1.20 with his FIP sitting at 4.19. Giolito certainly brings solid form into this outing as he has allowed just four earned runs in 24 innings of work over his last four starts. He should be pleased to be facing the Angels as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight career outings against them. Behind Giolito is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a respectable 3.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. The Angels relief corps, meanwhile, has posted a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the same stretch and used two of its key bullpen arms in Jacob Webb and closer Carlos Estevez in each of the first two games in this series. As I mentioned, Jaime Barria will get his fifth spot start of the season for the Angels. He has fared reasonably well with a 3.69 FIP and 1.06 WHIP across 16 outings spanning 46 1/3 innings this season. In fact, the Angels have won all four of his starts this season. I'm not convinced some of his numbers are sustainable, however, as he has allowed just 6.8 hits and 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Note that over the course of his big league career, Barria has yielded 8.5 hits and 1.4 home runs per nine innings. This will be his second start against the White Sox this season and while the Halos won his first by a 12-3 score, Barria wasn't exactly dominant, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out six over five innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Something has to give as the red hot Braves and Reds match up in Cincinnati on Friday. Atlanta has reeled off eight straight wins following yesterday's extra innings victory in Philadelphia. Cincinnati is riding an 11-game winning streak after a sweep of the lowly Rockies. Here, I look for the Braves to continue their winning ways as they hand the ball to impressive rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver against Luke Weaver of the Reds. Atlanta appears to have another good one in Smith-Shawver. He has made two big league starts this season, posting a lofty 4.47 FIP but an impressive 0.98 WHIP. That FIP is a little inflated after he gave up a pair of home runs in an 8-3 win over the Rockies last time out. Note that Smith-Shawver had allowed just one home run in 33 innings of work at the minor league level earlier this season. In those minor league outings he posted a sparkling 1.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It's been a much different story for Luke Weaver. He checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 57 innings this season. On Friday, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) after getting lit up for 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings against the Astros last time out. Great American Ballpark hasn't been a good fit as he has logged a 7.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts covering a span of 26 innings here this season. While the two bullpens are virtually a wash, it's worth noting that the Reds relief corps is approaching 300 combined innings pitched this season. That's nearly 30 innings more than that of the Braves. Atlanta has the benefit of having had two of the last four days off due to a rain out earlier this week. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-22-23 | Mariners +105 v. Yankees | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series, successfully bouncing back following a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox last weekend. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Thursday as they send Bryan Woo to the mound against Domingo German. Woo is anything but a household name but has impressed in three big league starts this season, posting a 3.68 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Last time out he struck out a career-high nine batters over just 5 2/3 innings in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. Note that Woo got the call-up after logging a 2.05 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 44 innings pitched at the Double-A level earlier this season. While pitching at Yankees Stadium can be daunting for an unseasoned starter, I do think Woo has had enough time to get the nerves out (note that he was tagged for six earned runs in just two innings in Texas in his 'Welcome to the Show' moment earlier this month). Behind Woo is a Mariners bullpen that continues to pitch well. Seattle's relief corps has combined to post a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Domingo German has had an up-and-down campaign to this point. While he has managed to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP, his 4.64 FIP tells a much different story. That low WHIP has a lot to do with good fortune as he's allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings. Note that German has never allowed fewer than 7.9 hits per nine innings in a full big league season. The Yankees prevailed by a 10-4 score in German's lone previous start against Seattle this year, that coming back on May 29th. Keep in mind, the Mariners did plate four earned runs on seven hits while walking three times and striking out on only four occasions over 6 1/3 innings. New York's bullpen has been somewhat overworked this season - certainly in comparison with that of the Mariners (the Yankees have logged just shy of 37 more bullpen innings this season). Yankee relievers have combined to post a 5.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven contests. Here at home they've converted only nine saves while blowing seven. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers took the opener of this brief two-game series by a 2-0 score behind another solid outing from Clayton Kershaw last night. I expect the Angels to bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani against Michael Grove of the Dodgers. Grove has posted terrific numbers at the minor league level over the last couple of seasons. It hasn't translated to success in the bigs, however. Last season, Grove logged a 5.16 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings of work with the Dodgers. So far this year, he has pitched 30 innings with the big club, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.60 WHIP. Of the 137 batters he has faced, 49 have managed to reach base. Behind Grove is a Dodgers bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season with those numbers ballooning to 7.37 and 1.48, respectively, over the last seven games. Shohei Ohtani hasn't been able to match the Cy Young Award-caliber numbers he posted last season but has still been effective this season, logging a 4.07 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. His command hasn't quite been there with his walks issued up considerably over last year. With that being said, he has limited two of his last three opponents to just a single walk (working six innings in both of those contests). He'll have the advantage of facing the Dodgers for the first time on Wednesday. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Angels bullpen has impressed, recording a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 12 blown. They've also logged just 20 innings over the last seven games, leaving them in good position on Wednesday. Take the Angels (8*). |
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06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox have blasted the Twins in the first two games of this series as Minnesota's struggles continue having dropped five of its last six contests. I look for the Twins to finally answer back on Wednesday as they send Sonny Gray to the hill against Garrett Whitlock. Whitlock has posted solid overall numbers this season but certainly isn't immune to shaky outings. Note that he has given up at least four earned runs in three of his seven starts this season. He checks in having allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts but hasn't held more than two straight opponents to three earned runs or fewer since May of last year. Sonny Gray didn't have his best stuff last time out, lasting only four earned runs against the Tigers in an eventual 8-4 loss. He still owns a stellar 2.56 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 76 innings of work this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Gray gave up just one earned run over five innings in his lone start against Boston last season but the Twins lost that game by a 5-4 score. The two bullpens are a virtual wash in this matchup although it is worth noting that Minnesota entered last night's game having logged 28 2/3 innings fewer in relief this season, theoretically leaving that group fresher as we approach the final week of June. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -127 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over New York at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This should be an emotionally-charged contest on Tuesday in Houston as Justin Verlander returns to Minute Maid Park to face his former team. The Mets jumped all over Astros rookie Hunter Brown last night but I expect a different story to unfold against Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Valdez checks in sporting a sparkling 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 91 innings of work this season. He faced the Mets once last season, tossing eight shutout innings in a 9-1 victory in Queens. Verlander is having a very un-Verlander like season, posting a 4.43 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 45 innings. His hits, home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are way up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to his Cy Young Award-winning 2022 campaign. Whether he's 100% healthy or not is certainly up for debate. I do expect the slumping Astros to get to him on Tuesday. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I do like the fact that Houston's 'pen entered last night's game having logged a collective 24 innings fewer than New York's this season. Interestingly, the Astros relief corps entered this series with a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP along with five saves converted and only one blown in just north of 80 innings pitched in Interleague play this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-19-23 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Cubs failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles yesterday, snapping their five-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they hand the ball to Drew Smyly against Osvaldo Bido of the Pirates in a rematch of a meeting last week. Smyly doesn't own terrific career numbers against the Pirates but he should he pleased to be making this start in Pittsburgh. Note that he has faced the Pirates three times at PNC Park, allowing just four earned runs including only one home run in 16 innings. Smyly's numbers this season are in line with the ones he posted last year, logging a 4.33 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. I do think we'll see him pitch better than he did against the Pirates last week, when he yielded five earned runs over six innings. Osvaldo Bido gets the call for Pittsburgh out of necessity only. He actually held up well in his big league debut against the Cubs last week, allowing just one earned run over four innings. Note that he's been in the Pirates organization since 2017 so the fact that he's just now getting a chance in the Show is telling in my opinion. At the Triple-A level this season he had posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 55 1/3 innings of work. Only once previously has he recorded an ERA lower than four in a minor league campaign and that was back in 2019 when he pitched at the Single-A and A+ levels. The bullpens are virtually a was on the season but the Cubs relief corps has been marginally better over the last seven games (Pittsburgh's 'pen entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 9.85 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over that stretch). I do like the fact that Chicago didn't use two of its most effective relievers in Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay in yesterday's game. The Pirates are missing a key late inning arm in Jose Hernandez as he's currently on the I.L. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-17-23 | Guardians -123 v. Diamondbacks | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took the opener of this series last night as Zac Gallen turned in another fine pitching performance in an eventual 5-1 victory. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland hands the ball to its own ace, Shane Bieber, against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Bieber hasn't exactly posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season but has been solid nonetheless, logging a 3.82 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 87 2/3 innings of work. He was lights out over seven innings despite pitching on short rest (four days) in his most recent outing. Here, he'll be back on regular rest against a D'Backs team that he handled without much trouble last season, allowing two earned runs over six innings. Tommy Henry may not be long for a big league rotation given the results he's posted over the last season-plus. Henry sports a 5.62 FIP and 1.38 WHIP in 50 innings this season after posting a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings last year. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest on Saturday. The last time we saw him do that he was tagged for four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the lowly A's on May 16th. The Guardians hold a significant edge in terms of the bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. Arizona's 'pen entered Friday's action having recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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06-15-23 | Guardians +124 v. Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have won the first two games of this series and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now but I'm not necessarily ready to buy in. Logan Allen will get the start for the visiting Guardians as they look to avoid the sweep in this three-game interleague series. Allen didn't pitch particularly well but hung in there and lasted six innings against the Astros in an eventual 10-9 victory last time out. He has posted respectable numbers this season with a 3.43 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through nine starts spanning 51 2/3 innings. Ryan Weathers will counter for the Padres as they push Yu Darvish back a day to face the Rays on Friday. Weathers owns a 4.93 ERA on the campaign and probably hasn't even been as good as that lofty number, posting a 5.26 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. He's unlikely to work deep into this game as he pitches on just four days' rest (even though he did throw only 40+ pitches against the Rockies last time out). Note that the Padres bullpen enters this game sporting a collective 4.94 ERA And 1.31 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, San Diego has only converted five saves while blowing four. The Guardians on the other hand check in with a 1.82 bullpen ERA and 1.01 WHIP over their last seven games. Cleveland's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, logging a 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 23 saves converted and 13 blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Angels took two of three games from the Mariners over the weekend and certainly enter this series playing well. I think they're going to be outmatched on Monday, however, as they send Tyler Anderson to the hill against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Anderson has seen his FIP rise to 5.14 and his WHIP to 1.60 after allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings in his last two starts. He's allowing a whopping 10.0 hits and 4.4 walks per nine innings this season and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park (1.0 home runs allowed per nine innings) that's not enough to minimize the damage, especially when you're striking out only 5.9 batters per nine frames. The Angels bullpen has been terrific but is approaching 'overworked' territory in my opinion as their relief corps eclipses 240 innings on the season. Dane Dunning is coming off a couple of rough outings of his own, giving up an uncharacteristic three home runs in his most recent start. Still, he owns a solid 3.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts including six starts this season. While the Rangers bullpen has been up and down, it has logged a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings of work here at home. In stark contrast to the Angels 'pen, the Rangers relief corps has only been called into action for 192 1/3 innings on the campaign. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-11-23 | Cubs v. Giants -135 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs have taken a pair of low-scoring affairs to open this series but I look for the Giants to answer back on Sunday. Hayden Wesneski will get the start for Chicago. He's had an up-and-down start to the season but perhaps with more downs than ups, logging a 5.64 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. In his return to the starting rotation last time out he labored through 4 2/3 innings in an eventual 7-4 loss to the Angels in Anaheim. I'm generally high on the Cubs bullpen - at least a couple of their key relief arms anyway - but the numbers indicate otherwise as they've recorded a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). John Brebbia will get another spot start for the Giants. He's been effective in 27 appearances, including six starts this season, posting a 2.60 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Of course any time Brebbia starts, the Giants bullpen is key as he's unlikely to work deep into the contest. Note that San Francisco's relief corps has logged a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (8*). |
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06-09-23 | Cubs +105 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs haven't won a game since Marcus Stroman last took the ball last Sunday in San Diego. I look for the right-hander to help them snap their skid on Friday as they open a series in San Francisco. Stroman has been terrific so far this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.00 WHIP, allowing only 81-of-309 batters he has faced to reach base. His two outings against the Giants last season were a mixed bag but he did toss six shutout innings in his lone start here in San Francisco. The Cubs bullpen has struggled as a whole but does boast a few redeemable arms that should be in line to pitch on Friday. On a positive note, Chicago's 'pen has only been called into action for 18 2/3 innings over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Giants bullpen has been severely overworked, logging a collective 29 2/3 innings over the last seven games and 241 innings this season. Anthony DeSclafani will get the start for the Giants on Friday. While he does own solid overall numbers on the season, they've been on the rise lately as he has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 15 innings. The Giants have only managed to win two of his last six starts. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-07-23 | Mariners +104 v. Padres | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners are a team I want to bet on in the coming weeks while the Padres look like a solid fade moving forward. Here, we can back Seattle at an underdog price (at the time of writing) with a significant edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup. George Kirby will take the ball for the Mariners. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season, logging a 3.27 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He'll have the benefit of starting on six days' rest on Wednesday after shutting the Yankees down over eight shutout innings last week. Michael Wacha will counter for the Padres. He was brought back to Earth in his most recent start, lasting only 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. With a 3.72 FIP and 1.15 WHIP I do feel that Wacha is in line for some regression, noting that he hasn't posted a full-season FIP lower than 4.14 since 2017. A number of current Mariners hitters have enjoyed considerable success against Wacha as well, including Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France who are a combined 14-for-22 against the right-hander. The Padres bullpen has outpaced that of the Mariners lately but are entering 'overworked' territory, having not had a day off since May 29th. Seattle's 'pen still owns solid numbers on the season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, converting 15 saves while blowing only seven. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jays are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Mets in Queens over the weekend but I look for their run of success to come to an end on Monday as they return home to host the Astros. Houston checks in off a 2-1 loss against the Angels yesterday, failing to complete the four-game sweep of its division rival. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Astros bounce back against Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, who continues to grind through a miserable campaign. Manoah last pitched last Wednesday and showed no signs of turning things around, lasting only four innings in an eventual 4-2 defeat. Now Manoah will have to start on short rest (four days) having posted a lofty 6.27 FIP and 1.77 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. While the Jays 'pen behind Manoah has been terrific lately, I'm not sure it will be enough on this night. Brandon Bielak will get the start for the visiting Astros. He got shelled in his first couple of big league starts this season but has since settled down, allowing only 13 hits and six earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 17 1/3 innings. While Bielak certainly hasn't been as good as his 3.19 ERA indicates (he's posted a 5.15 FIP and 1.45 WHIP), I do think he can be effective against the up-and-down Blue Jays. While the Astros bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season with 16 saves converted and only five blown. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-04-23 | Cubs -104 v. Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. We've made a bit of a habit of fading Padres starter Ryan Weathers and we'll do the same here as the Cubs look to bounce back from last night's shutout loss in San Diego. Marcus Stroman has impressed for Chicago this season, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 73 innings of work. While the Cubs bullpen behind him has struggled lately, this is still a relief corps I do have some faith in and the majority of their key arms should be in line to work on Sunday. Weathers checks in with a 4.48 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The Padres did win his most recent start but that was really no thanks to Weathers as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against the Marlins. While the Padres bullpen has posted solid numbers overall, it has had a tough time closing out games, already blowing 10 saves this season. Here at home, San Diego has converted four saves while blowing four as well. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-03-23 | Yankees -122 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night but I look for New York to answer back on Saturday. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He's been roughed up in his last two outings but still owns terrific overall numbers this season with a 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. I can't help but feel the Dodgers bats are in for some regression after scoring six runs or more in six straight games heading into this contest. Los Angeles will counter with Michael Grove. He'll be making his fifth start this season and the results have been a mixed bag. Grove owns an ugly 8.44 ERA but has been better than that lofty number, sporting a 4.65 FIP. That's not saying he's pitched well, however, noting that he checks in with a 1.75 WHIP. As I noted in my analysis of last night's game, the bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup, however, the Yankees 'pen has been pitching far better recent, entering last night's contest with a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers 'pen recorded an ERA north of five over the same stretch. Take New York (8*). |
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06-02-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers dropped their most recent contest in Washington but I look for them to rebound in Friday's series-opener against the Yankees. New York will give the start to Luis Severino. He checks in sporting a sparkling 1.59 ERA in two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings. He hasn't been quite as sharp as that number indicates, however, as he has recorded a 3.73 FIP. In two minor league rehab outings, Severino logged a 4.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 2/3 innings. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be looking to bounce back after a string of rough outings but still owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 11 outings spanning 62 1/3 innings this season. He'll be making his second straight on a full five days' rest. The Yankees bullpen appears to have the edge although it is worth noting that the Dodgers bullpen has been significantly stronger at home than on the road, logging a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-02-23 | Mariners -113 v. Rangers | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enjoyed a day off yesterday but will be back at it for the start of this three-game divisional series on Friday. The Mariners will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He checks in sporting a 2.93 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season. Over his last two outings he's tossed 12 shutout innings, striking out 18 and walking only four along the way. Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA but I don't think he's been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 4.64 FIP in 10 starts, spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. There's no question Gray has been terrific over his last seven outings but I do think he's running out of real estate in his current five-start undefeated streak. Prior to that he owned a 1-11 team record over his last 12 outings. The two bullpens are virtually a wash, although it is worth noting that Texas has had a bit of a tough time closing out games this season, converting 10 saves but also blowing eight. Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over New York at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series in blowout fashion but I look for the Mariners to answer back on Wednesday. Clarke Schmidt has turned things around to a certain extent for the Yankees over the last couple of starts, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings of work. He still owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.60 WHIP on the season. Of the 229 batters he has faced, 82 have reached base. The Mariners will counter with George Kirby. He got shelled in his most recent outing. It happens to the best of pitchers. That doesn't change the fact that he has pitched well this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 71-of-254 batters to reach base. As a testament to how impressive he has been, Kirby has worked at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash but I'm confident the Mariners can pick themselves back up at the plate and snap their two-game skid, noting they've lost more than two games in a row only once since April 30th. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-28-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-26-23 | White Sox -136 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Tigers took the opener of this series by a 7-2 score last night - their second straight victory. Note that they've strung together more than two wins in a row only twice previously this season while the White Sox haven't dropped back-to-back games since a three-game skid from May 10th to 12th, quietly turning things around following an awful start. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the visiting White Sox on Friday. I have him pegged as a positive regression candidate as much like his team, we've seen him start to turn the corner over his last couple of outings. Lynn still owns a disappointing 4.71 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season but those numbers do indicate he's pitched better than his lofty 6.28 ERA. Note that the hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate, even by Lynn's standards, as he has given up 10.2 hits per nine innings this season, compared to his career average of 8.3. Lynn has also given up 1.9 home runs per nine innings compared to his career mark of 0.9 but most of the damage was done when he was struggling early in the campaign. He has given up just one home run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. Lynn should be pleased to see the Tigers as his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against them. Joey Wentz will counter for Detroit. He made seven starts at the big league level last year and pitched reasonably well. It's been a different story here in 2023, however, as the book may be out on the left-hander. He checks in sporting a 5.79 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through 38 2/3 innings of work. Wentz hasn't made it out of the third inning in either of his last two outings. While he will have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time, the same could have been said in his last start against the Washington Nationals and he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits over just two innings. Based on recent form, we can consider the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup. I do like the fact that White Sox relievers have only been called upon to work 23 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting three saves without blowing a single one over that stretch. Despite last night's defeat, the White Sox have had plenty of success here in the Motor City over the last 2+ seasons, going 12-7, outscoring the Tigers by an average margin of 6-4. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-24-23 | Padres v. Nationals +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night and have now strung together consecutive wins for the first time since May 3rd and 5th. I look for their success to be short-lived, however. Ryan Weathers will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. I don't believe he's been as good as his 3.42 ERA indicates, recording a 4.46 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work this season. The hits haven't been falling in against him but we're bound to see some regression in that department, noting that he has allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season but gives up 9.2 for his career. Of the 92 batters Weathers has faced, 28 have reached base, this coming after he allowed 10-of-30 batters he faced to reach base at the Triple-A level earlier this season. The Nationals saw Weathers in the 2021 season, chasing him after 5 1/3 innings but not before plating four earned runs including two home runs on seven hits (while striking out only twice). Trevor Williams will counter for Washington. He's given the Nationals about what they expected, logging a 4.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through nine starts spanning 44 1/3 innings of work. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season. Unlike his counterpart Weathers, Williams doesn't hand out many free passes, issuing just 2.0 walks per nine innings this season. While the Padres bullpen has pitched well lately, I'm willing to consider that department a virtual wash in this matchup at least when you consider the home/road splits of both relief corps'. The Nationals 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season while Padres relievers had recorded a 3.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. As I've said from the start of the season, I do think the Nats' are well-built for the ballpark they play their home games in, even if they are just 10-16 here this season. I like their chances of answering back against the Padres on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Orioles +135 v. Blue Jays | 6-2 | Win | 135 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays are struggling right now, fresh off dropping three of four games against the rival Yankees here at home. I'm not as easily convinced that they'll pick themselves up off the mat on Friday as some and will back the Orioles at a generous underdog price. While the Jays have the more high-profile offense on paper, it's the O's lineup that has worn opposing pitchers out this season. Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi knows all about that as he faced Baltimore three times last season, allowing 12 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. While Kikuchi owns a respectable 3.89 ERA this season he has logged a disappointing 5.46 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Behind Kikuchi is a banged-up Jays bullpen that is missing two of its key arms in Adam Cimber and Zach Pop. Baltimore will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson for Friday's series-opener. I'm not going to sugar-coat it, he hasn't been all that good this season, posting a 4.39 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. I do like the fact that he's managed to work at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He has probably deserved better than a three-start losing streak, noting that the O's haven't given him a single run of support over that stretch. The O's bullpen doesn't get enough credit. Their relief corps' has logged a collective 2.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Dodgers -143 v. Cardinals | 8-16 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers are a team that we want to bet on right now and Julio Urias is certainly a starting pitcher we're looking to support as well. Urias didn't get off to the best start this season and still owns a FIP just above four as he has been giving up home runs at a much higher rate than we're accustomed to seeing (1.7 per nine innings compared to his career mark of 1.0). However, he has strung together three straight solid outings, lowering his WHIP all the way to 1.07 and I believe he's well-positioned to keep the positive momentum building in St. Louis on Thursday. Urias' counterpart will be veteran Adam Wainwright. He struggled in a few minor league outings earlier this season, allowing 20-of-58 batters to reach base while recording an ERA north of six in 13 innings of work. Since re-joining the Cards he has logged a 5.10 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while allowing 17-of-45 batters he has faced to reach base. Now he faces a Dodgers club that is certainly comfortable facing him having gone up against him four times (winning three of those games) over the last two seasons (nine earned runs in 22 innings). The bullpens are virtually a wash and both teams were in action yesterday. I will point out that Los Angeles has converted 12 saves while blowing only four while St. Louis has just eight saves to its credit to go along with 10 blown. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series and they've done so convincingly by a 13-7 margin. I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Wednesday, even as they face New York ace Gerrit Cole. We've seen some cracks in Cole's armor lately as he has allowed 24 hits and 11 earned runs over his last four starts covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. While it hasn't necessarily affected him much in the past, he'll be making his fifth consecutive start on short rest (four days). The Yankees have managed to win Cole's last two starts against the Blue Jays, including a walk-off 3-2 victory in the Bronx back in April. The last time New York won consecutive Cole outings against Toronto (back in 2021) they dropped his next start against the Jays by a 5-1 score. Behind Cole is an effective but overworked Yankees bullpen that was forced into action early last night thanks to starter Domingo German's ejection. Note that New York hasn't had a day off since May 4th, complicating late-inning bullpen decisions. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt. After an up-and-down start to the season he has really settled in over his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run in 16 innings of work. In fact, since allowing 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis in his season debut, Bassitt has given up just 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his last seven starts, lasting at least six innings in six of those outings. The Toronto bullpen faltered late in last night's game but entered that contest sporting a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season. Closer Jordan Romano is well-rested having not pitched since Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-17-23 | Phillies -115 v. Giants | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken a pair of tightly-contested affairs to open this series and the Phillies have suddenly lost three games in a row following a five-game winning streak. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Wednesday as it sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Ross Stripling of the Giants. Walker has certainly had an inconsistent start to his 2023 campaign but has managed to string together consecutive solid outings entering this start, allowing just four earned runs on 10 hits and no walks while striking out nine over his last 12 innings of work. I like the fact that he has lasted at least six innings in four of his last six trips to the hill and will be working in front of a Phillies bullpen that has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. Despite the close game last night, Philadelphia kept most of its key relief arms idle after Zach Wheeler worked six frames. Ross Stripling will counter for San Francisco. He's bounced in and out of the starting rotation in the early going this season, making eight appearances overall. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.14 ERA would indicate, logging a 7.16 FIP and 1.59 WHIP with 47 of the 131 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Stripling has topped out at five innings in his four previous starts this season which doesn't bode well as the Giants bullpen has been a mess, sporting a collective 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 12 saves converted and seven blown on the campaign. Note that Giants closer Camilo Doval, one of the few bright spots in the San Francisco relief corps this season, worked the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -172 | 6-3 | Loss | -172 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night at Rogers Centre but I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Tuesday. Domingo German gets the start for the visiting Yankees. He'll be making his fifth straight start on short rest (four days) and it seems to be wearing on him as he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out only eight in 10 2/3 innings of work. While German's 0.96 WHIP is impressive, his 4.37 FIP tells a much different story. The fact that he's allowing just 5.6 hits per nine innings is really the only thing keeping his numbers in check but we can anticipate some regression in that department moving forward, noting that he has still allowed 7.8 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He posted otherworldly numbers last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2023, save for a couple of ugly outlier performances against the Astros and Red Sox. On the season, Gausman owns a 2.31 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing only 53-of-196 batters he has faced to reach base. Both bullpens have been reliable in the early going this season although I do think the Yankees are in tough in that department given they haven't had a day off since May 4th. The Jays 'pen has been particularly sharp at home this season, logging a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. Take Toronto (8*). |
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05-14-23 | Mariners -172 v. Tigers | 3-5 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners are suddenly rolling along, winners of eight of their last 11 games and they'll look to complete the series sweep in Detroit on Sunday. I like their chances with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Gilbert was a hard-luck loser in his last start as he allowed just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers. He's sporting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season having logged a 2.69 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts spanning 40 1/3 innings. In his lone outing against the Tigers last season, Gilbert tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win here in Detroit. Wentz has labored through seven starts for the Tigers this season having posted a 5.52 FIP and 1.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-144 batters he has faced to reach base. The left-hander will be in tough here, noting that the Mariners entered yesterday's action hitting 14 points higher against southpaw starting pitchers compared to their overall batting average, also putting up 4.8 runs per contest. In terms of the bullpens, the Mariners hold the edge in that department as well. They entered Saturday's affair sporting a collective 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. The Tigers 'pen has actually performed better than expected so far this season but still owns an ERA north of four and just nine saves compared to six blown. Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -142 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats were fairly lifeless against Padres starter Joe Musgrove last Sunday night but they still found a way to pull out a 5-2 victory in extra innings and their dominance over the Padres continued last night as they secured a 4-2 victory to open this series. Musgrove has been slow to regain his form since returning from injury. He logged 9 1/3 innings at the Single and Triple-A level earlier in April and allowed 15-of-43 batters he faced to reach base. Since re-joining the big club he has recorded a 6.22 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing 20 of the 60 batters he has faced to reach base, including four home runs. I believe it's advantage-Dodgers here as they get their second look at Musgrove in less than a week and face him for the sixth time since the start of last season (the Padres went 1-4 in his five previous outings). Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He should be happy to be facing the Padres for a second straight turn in the rotation, noting that he owns a career 7-1 record to go along with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them. You would have to go back nine starts to find the last time the Dodgers lost to the Padres with Urias on the mound. He hasn't gotten off to the start he probably hoped for this season but has settled in over his last couple of outings (save for a bad first inning against the Padres last time out), yielding just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. Urias currently owns a 4.13 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 54-of-185 batters he has faced to reach base. I expect some positive regression to the mean in terms of his home runs allowed as he has given up 1.6 long balls per nine innings, which would serve as the highest mark of his career (his previous career-high was 1.2 last season). Both bullpens entered the season with high expectations and haven't necessarily lived up to those. With that being said, both have settled down over the last week or so although the Padres continue to have a miserable time trying to close out games, blowing three saves while converting just one over the last seven games. They've already blown eight saves this season (while converting 13). The Dodgers 'pen has converted four saves without blowing a single one over the last seven games. In fact, they've blown only three saves all season (while converting 11). Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-12-23 | Astros -150 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox return home after dropping three of four games against the lowly Royals and I don't believe they're any better positioned to gt back in the win column as they host the Astros on Friday. Houston salvaged the final two games of its six-game west coast road trip to finish 3-3 on that jaunt. The Astros got a much-needed day off yesterday as their bullpen had been struggling over the last seven games but still owns a terrific 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only four blown on the campaign. That's in stark contrast to that of the White Sox. Chicago's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and proceeded to give up the game-winning run in the ninth inning against Kansas City. Note that the White Sox haven't had a day off since May 1st, further compounding their issues. Chicago will give Michael Kopech the start on Friday. He's arguably been even worse than his lofty 5.97 ERA indicates having posted a 7.53 FIP and 1.57 WHIP through seven starts spanning 37 2/3 innings. Of the 170 batters he has faced, 62 have reached base including a whopping 12 home runs allowed. J.P France will get his second big league start for the Astros. While he came out on the short end in a 7-5 road defeat against the Mariners in his debut, it wasn't his fault by any means as he gave up just three hits and one walk while striking out five over five shutout innings. Note that France earned the call-up after he posted a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season, allowing only 21-of-77 batters he faced to reach base. Take Houston (8*). |
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05-08-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -151 | 2-1 | Loss | -151 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense has exploded lately, scoring double-digit runs in four of their last six games. You still have to figure Mariners starter Logan Gilbert will be happy to see them on Monday, noting that he owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven career starts against them with the Mariners winning five of those games. Gilbert enters this start in excellent form as he has posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 36-of-135 batters he has faced to reach base. While the Rangers have been scoring runs in bunches it still might not be enough for tonight's starter Jon Gray. He enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts in 2022 but hasn't come close to recapturing that magic so far this season, logging a 6.22 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Of the 131 batters he has faced 45 have reached base including six home runs. Strikeouts have been an issue for the Mariners lineup but Gray hasn't been missing many bats, averaging just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Behind Gray is a Rangers bullpen that started strong this season but has fallen apart lately. Entering yesterday's game, the Texas relief corps had logged a collective 5.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, Rangers relievers have blown as many saves as they've converted (five). In stark contrast, the Mariners bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season with those numbers dropping to 1.54 and 1.11, respectively, over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series against the lowly Rockies but they're well-positioned to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon as they send veteran left-hander Wade Miley to the hill against Connor Seabold of the Rockies. Miley is having a fine campaign. While he's probably not pitching quite as well as his sparkling 1.86 ERA would indicate, he's still been incredibly effective, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through five starts spanning 29 innings of work. Only 30 of the 115 batters Miley has faced have managed to reach base. Meanwhile, Colorado will give Connor Seabold a turn in the rotation after he failed to cut it with the Red Sox (a fairly pitching-starved team right now). In 18 1/3 big league innings last year, Seabold was lit up to the tune of a 6.38 FIP and 2.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-98 batters to reach base. He's been a little better pitching out of the bullpen for Colorado so far this season but that's not saying much. Seabold still owns a 3.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP, allowing 25-of-65 batters to reach base. It rarely gets better for the Rockies as the game progresses, noting that their bullpen has logged a collective 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with four saves converted and three blown this season. Compare that to the Brewers 'pen, which has recorded a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting nine saves and blowing just four. It's also worth noting that Colorado's 'pen has been pressed into action for just shy of 20 innings more than that of Milwaukee. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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04-29-23 | Reds -144 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The A's early season slide continued last night as they dropped an 11-7 decision in the opener of this Interleague series. Cincinnati has quietly reeled off four straight wins and I don't expect it to break stride on Saturday afternoon at the Coliseum. Hunter Greene will take the ball for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball right now. He posted a respectable 4.37 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while logging 125 2/3 innings at the big league level last season and has been even better so far this year. Greene checks in sporting a 2.48 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through five starts, spanning 23 innings of work. After struggling a bit in his first two starts of the season, the right-hander has settled in, allowing only four earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only two over his last three outings covering a span of 15 innings. It's a much different story for A's starter Kyle Muller. He was of course a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta. I have to wonder if the book is out on the young left-hander as he has been lit up in each of his last three starts. Muller has logged a 5.33 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings so far in 2023. He has allowed 50 of the 119 batters he's faced to reach base. That's not good news as he prepares to face a Reds club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, hitting a collective .278 while averaging north of 6.0 runs per game. Behind Muller is an A's bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with those numbers only getting worse after last night's debacle. On the flip side, the Reds 'pen has impressed, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering this series but even better, a 1.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over the last seven games. Closing out games has been a bit of an issue, already with five blown saves on the campaign, but my thought here is that their lead will be big enough late to keep that wart hidden. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Guardians -135 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Guardians have been scuffing their heels lately and are coming off another losing series, this one at the hands of the lowly Rockies. With that being said, I like their chances of opening this series in Boston on a positive note on Friday. Shane Bieber will take the ball for Cleveland. He hasn't necessarily been dominant in his first five turns in the rotation this season, particularly over his last couple of outings, but he still owns a solid 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP and given his career-high FIP was 3.32 back in 2019, I expect some positive regression to the mean moving forward. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's arguably been worse than his 4.58 ERA would indicate, logging a 5.18 FIP and 1.37 WHIP through his first four outings. I've never felt he's a great fit for Fenway Park in Boston and so far this season he's given up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. While the Guardians bullpen has only been marginally better than the Red Sox 'pen, I would anticipate the numbers diverging as time goes on. We always like to support the Guardians when their elite bullpen is rested, as is the case here following an off day on Thursday. Note that Cleveland's relief corps has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen has held up well considering it has been overworked, already logging north of 100 innings on the season. We have seen some signs of regression lately though as Boston relievers have posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Mariners +105 v. Phillies | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll take a flyer on the Mariners after they dropped the middle game of this three-game series last night. George Kirby will take the ball for Seattle. He's arguably been better than his 3.57 ERA indicates this season, logging a 2.81 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while allowing only 26-of-92 batters he's faced to reach base. I like the fact that Kirby has worked at least six innings in three of four starts to date, perhaps taking some of the pressure off of a Mariners bullpen that has been terrific but also overworked having logged north of 90 innings, collectively. Also note that Kirby has started on full rest (5+ days) in each of his first four starts this season and will do so again here. Matt Strahm will counter for Philadelphia. He tossed nine shutout innings in his first two outings this season but has allowed six earned runs in eight innings since. The hits simply haven't been dropping in against the left-hander as he has recorded a BABIP south of .230 so far this season. I do expect the Mariners lineup to put pressure on him here, noting that they check in averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Phillies average 4.9 runs per contest at home and it's worth noting that they plated six runs last night. They've gone 1-5 after scoring six or more runs in a game this season, outscored by a combined margin of 49-17 in those contests. The Mariners bullpen does own marginally better overall numbers this season but Philadelphia's relief corps has admittedly been stronger over the last week. I'm willing to consider the bullpens a wash but even with that, I think the M's have enough of a starting pitching advantage and at the plate to support them at a reasonable price here. Take Seattle (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Cardinals +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We'll often look to fade MLB teams coming off emotional, come-from-behind victories like the one we saw from the Giants last night. San Francisco has now won a season-high four games in a row after having not strung together consecutive victories on a single occasion previously. The win streak has really come out of nowhere for a team that wasn't doing anything particularly well and I expect it to grind to a halt on Wednesday. Steven Matz will take the ball for the visiting Cardinals. I think some positive regression to the mean is in order when it comes to the left-hander as he has gone winless through his first four starts this season, posting a 4.87 FIP and 1.64 WHIP along the way. Keep in mind, in his first year with the Cardinals in 2022, Matz logged a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 15 appearances spanning 48 innings of work. In his last full big league season, Matz recorded a 3.79 FIP and 1.33 WHIP in 150 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2021. Matz command simply hasn't been there in the early going as he has issued north of 4.0 walks per nine innings. I do think he can and will settle down and it's worth noting that the Giants don't put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with runners on base, with just 12 stolen bases to date this season. Behind Matz is a Cards bullpen that has pitched well (despite last night's debacle), recording a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season. That's in stark contrast to the Giants bullpen, which has logged a collective 5.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for San Francisco on Wednesday. Perhaps the opposite of Matz, some negative regression to the mean can be expected when it comes to the veteran right-hander. He has posted a 2.91 FIP and 0.88 WHIP but comes off his worst outing of the season against the Mets last Friday. After pitching lights out in his first two starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits, including two home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-26-23 | Padres +100 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade Cubs starter Drew Smyly off his incredible brush with a Perfect Game in his most recent outing last Friday. Smyly has pitched exceptionally well over his last three starts and it has really come out of nowhere. Note that he'll be pitching on short rest (four days) here for the second straight outing, however, and I look for the Padres bats to come alive off last night's shutout defeat in the series-opener. Some regression is almost certainly in order when it comes to the veteran Smyly, noting that he has posted a 3.37 FIP and 0.91 WHIP so far this season after logging 5.11/1.37 and 4.23/1.19 splits over the last two campaigns. Michael Wacha will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been good over his last two outings but we know he's capable of giving the Padres some quality starts. After all, he had worked 12 innings and allowed just four earned runs on eight hits in his first two starts this season, including an outing in Atlanta where he tossed six shutout frames, striking out 10 along the way. Wacha owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.72 WHIP so far this season after logging a 4.14 FIP and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts spanning 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox last year. The good news here is that Wacha will be pitching on full rest (five days) for the fifth straight outing to open the campaign. While the Cubs bullpen has posted better numbers than that of the Padres so far this season there hasn't been a considerable gap. In fact, San Diego's relief corps has already converted eight saves while blowing just three while the Cubs have only two saves to their credit to go along with three blown. Take San Diego (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Padres v. Cubs -122 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs had a day off on Monday to digest dropping three of four games at home against the Dodgers from Thursday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the Padres are 'fat and happy' after taking three of four games from the division-rival Diamondbacks in Arizona. I don't like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Padres as they hand the ball to Blake Snell against Justin Steele. Snell hasn't been any better than his 6.00 ERA indicates this season as he has logged a 6.04 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. The left-hander has allowed 34-of-86 batters to reach base and figures to be under plenty of pressure against a Cubs lineup that has swiped 24 bases and averages 5.8 runs per game on the campaign. Steele was quietly effective in his 24 big league starts last season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. He's arguably been even better so far this season, recording a 3.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in four starts spanning 25 innings of work. Only 23 of the 95 batters he has faced have reached base and the Padres haven't been overly aggressive on the basepaths this season, swiping only nine bases to date. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that has logged a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Padres on the other hand have posted a collective 4.45 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Over their last seven games, Padres relievers have allowed 17 earned runs in just 23 1/3 innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-22-23 | White Sox v. Rays -179 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm willing to pay up to back the Rays in Game 2 of this series against the White Sox after they probably had no business winning last night's game (but did anyway). Chicago's bullpen continues to implode game-after-game. It entered this series sporting a collective 6.68 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and those numbers only got worse after last night's debacle. On a positive note for Chicago, Dylan Cease will get the start on Saturday. He's faced the Rays three times previously and has never lasted a full six innings. Cease enters this start sporting a sparkling 2.01 ERA this season but probably hasn't been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 3.34 FIP with 28-of-99 batters he has faced reaching base despite hits falling in at an unusually low rate. The Rays will of course put pressure on the best of pitchers and remain one of the healthiest lineups in baseball as we approach the end of April. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to its own ace, Shane McClanahan. He's been outstanding through his first four starts this season with the Rays winning all four of those games. McClanahan has posted a 2.43 FIP and 1.13 WHIP and has yet to give up a home run. Again, the bullpen matchup in this series is no contest, noting that Tampa Bay relievers entered last night's action with a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting three saves without blowing a single one. With the White Sox still sorely missing table-setter Tim Anderson at the top of their lineup, I look for the Rays to put another one past them on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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04-22-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Cubs | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers were a no-show yesterday after taking the opener of this four-game set on Thursday. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Dustin May against Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs. May is off to a terrific start this season but did get roughed up at the hands of the Mets last time out. The right-hander still owns a solid 3.80 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I like his chances of rebounding against a Cubs offense that isn’t as good as it showed in yesterday’s 13-0 rout. Note that only 23-of-92 batters May has faced have reached base this season. That’s in stark contrast to his counterpart Wesneski, who has allowed 23-of-61 batters aboard. Wesneski did silence the lowly A’s bats last time out but still owns an ERA and FIP north of six this season. While he does have terrific stuff, he’s not really fooling a lot of big league hitters right now with only 11 strikeouts in 13 innings of work this season. While the Cubs bullpen has been more effective than that of the Dodgers so far this season I do expect that script to flip as time goes on. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday’s defeat the Dodgers have their key relievers fresh for this contest. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-21-23 | Mets v. Giants -105 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Mets entered the week on a four-game winning streak and have stayed hot, first taking two of three games from the mighty Dodgers in Los Angeles and then defeating the down-trodden Giants 9-4 in last night's series-opener in San Francisco. I look for their streak to grind to a halt on Friday, however, as they send Joey Lucchesi to the mound for his first big league start since 2021 against Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The plan probably wasn't for Lucchesi to be dropped into the starting rotation so early this season but the Mets are desperate with Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco sidelined due to injuries and Max Scherzer now suspended for 10 games for using an illegal substance. Lucchesi will be making his first big league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has made three starts at the minor league level this season, recording an impressive 2.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, 18-of-64 batters he has faced have reached base and he was tagged for a pair of home runs in 15 2/3 innings of work so it's not as if he's been setting the Triple-A circuit on fire. It remains to be seen how deep he can work into a game and the Mets bullpen is a bit taxed at this point, having already logged 75 1/3 innings and not having had a day off since April 13th. DeSclafani has been sharp in his first three starts for the Giants this season. While he's bound to suffer some regression as he enters sporting a 1.42 ERA, his 2.34 FIP and 0.63 WHIP indicate he's pitching well without the help of smoke-and-mirrors. Only 12 of the 68 batters he has faced have reached base through his 19 innings of work this season. This will be a 'revenge game' of sorts for DeSclafani after he allowed five earned runs on nine hits over five innings against the Mets last April. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here as he was pitching on short rest (four days) in that previous outing against them and certainly wasn't in the same form he is now, noting that he battled injuries from that start on last year, ultimately making only two more trips to the hill (two months later) before being shut down for the season. Behind DeSclafani is a Giants bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season but does come in relatively fresh after Tristan Beck did yeoman's work last night, tossing 5 1/3 innings in relief of an ineffective Sean Manaea, just one day after getting called from the minors. On the flip side, the Mets were forced to use key reliever Drew Smith for the second straight game (and third in the last four) meaning he likely won't be available for Friday's game. Remember, New York is already without closer Edwin Diaz and Stephen Nogosek due to injuries. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Twins -124 v. Red Sox | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in extra innings last night but I look for the Twins to answer back on Wednesday. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He has posted terrific numbers through his first three starts this season and it hasn't had anything to do with smoke-and-mirrors. Ryan owns a 2.84 ERA and a 3.10 WHIP not to mention a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. Of the 70 batters he has faced, only 12 have reached base. Keep in mind, the right-hander posted a solid 3.99 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in his first full big league season last year. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, converting five saves and blowing only two. Red Sox starter Corey Kluber has labored through his first three starts this season and he's been every bit as bad as his 6.92 ERA indicates, logging a 6.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP in 13 innings of work. In stark contrast to Ryan, Kluber has allowed 19 of the 57 batters he has faced to reach base. The Red Sox bullpen has held up well but there's reason for concern as they've already logged a whopping 76 1/3 innings. Over the last seven games alone Red Sox relievers have worked 29 2/3 innings. Compare that to the Twins relief corps, which has been called into action for just 52 1/3 innings this season. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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04-19-23 | Guardians -137 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians have lost three games in a row including a double-header sweep at the hands of the Tigers yesterday. All three of those contests could have gone either way as they were all decided by a single run. I expect to see the Guardians offense wake up on Wednesday afternoon as they face Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers. Turnbull hasn't been as bad as his inflated 9.00 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.92 WHIP through 13 innings of work. The Tigers have been careful with him as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, the Guardians are a taxing opponent to face as they put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Here, they'll be facing Turnbull who has had a tendency to put a lot of runners on with 27 of the 63 batters he has faced reaching base so far this season. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that held up well in yesterday's double-header but entered the day sporting a collective 5.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with only two saves converted and three blown this season. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for the Guardians. He has posted similar numbers to those of Turnbull so far this season. He hasn't had as much of an issue with his command, however, and will be facing the weaker of the two lineups in this contest (note that the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters last night finished the game batting .189, .189 and .167, respectively). The hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate against Quantrill so far this season (12.1 hits allowed per nine innings) when you consider that he has only allowed more hits than innings pitched in one of his previous four big league seasons - that in his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2019). Quantrill has alternated good and bad outings against the Tigers over the course of his career but the Guardians have won his last two starts against them by a combined 18-4 score. Cleveland's bullpen entered yesterday's action with a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in tow and didn't end up using closer Emmanuel Clase, keeping him fresh in case he's called upon on Wednesday afternoon. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-18-23 | Mets v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets took the opener of this series by a score of 8-6 last night as the Dodgers fell below the .500 mark once again. I look for Los Angeles to answer back behind veteran starter Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Tylor Megill. While he owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA through his first three starts this season, his 4.64 FIP tells a different story. Megill isn't really fooling many hitters with a 1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 16 innings of work. Of the 65 batters he has faced, 19 have reached base. Note that Megill is headed into uncharted territory riding a five-game team win streak in his starts going back to last season. He's accomplished that feat once previously in his career with the Mets losing his next outing by a 9-2 score against the Braves, at home no less. Kershaw is off to a solid if not spectacular start this season having logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. His command has been there as he has recorded 8.5 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings. Note that Kershaw faced the Mets once last season and was effective, allowing just one earned run (on only one hit) while striking out six and walking three over five innings. The Dodgers have gone an incredible 15-3 in Kershaw's 18 career outings against New York but again, only last year's start was all that relevant as that was his first start against the Mets since 2019. The Mets bullpen has been terrific despite missing some key arms due to injury. However, I am concerned with the fact that their relief corps has already logged 62 1/3 innings. The Dodgers did save some of their key bullpen arms thanks to trailing by multiple runs over the game's final three innings last night. I certainly anticipate positive regression from the Los Angeles 'pen as it has uncharacteristically struggled so far this season, recording a collective 4.97 and 1.53 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-14-23 | Orioles -101 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. It seems that every year the White Sox carry high hopes into the season residing in a seemingly manageable American League Central but here we are a couple of weeks into the season and they're already four games back of first place looking up at both the Guardians and Twins. Coming off consecutive losses in Minnesota and missing table-setter Tim Anderson due to injury, I look for them to fall short again as they open this series with the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore just took three of four games from Oakland, scoring 29 runs in the process. I look for it to keep up its hot streak at the plate here against Chicago starter Mike Clevinger. He has posted a 3.68 FIP but an ugly 1.55 WHIP through two outings, allowing 18-of-49 batters he has faced to reach base. Inconsistency has been Clevinger's calling card throughout his big league career and I expect that to be a storyline thorughout this season as well. Behind Clevinger is a White Sox bullpen that has been among baseball's worst so far this season, recording a collective 7.01 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. That's in stark contrast to the O's relief corps' which has posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. I don't know that too much will be asked of Baltimore's 'pen in this one with Tyler Wells starting. He has posted a 4.30 FIP but an impressive 0.55 WHIP through two outings (one in long relief) spanning 11 innings so far this season. Only six of the 39 batters Wells has faced have managed to reach base. Across parts of three big league seasons, Wells has allowed just 7.1 hits, 1.4 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings, only lagging behind Clevinger in one of those departments (home runs allowed). Take Baltimore (8*). |
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04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Twins managed to pull out a series victory over the division-rival White Sox after dropping the opener earlier in the week and they did it thanks in large part to their pitching staff. Minnesota is playing with a fairly slim margin for error right now as it continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Twins could be without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Alex Kirillof and Jorge Polanco for this game with only Buxton and Correa even having an outside chance at starting. Not surprisingly, the Twinkies have plated just 11 runs over their last four games with some help from extra innings over that stretch. While I do like Minnesota starter Joe Ryan, I can't help but feel he'll be asked to do a little too much on Thursday. Note that he's made just one previous start against the Yankees, that coming last September in a 7-1 defeat here in the Bronx. Ryan has already allowed two home runs in as many starts this season despite those two outings coming in predominantly 'pitcher's parks' in Kansas City and Minnesota. While the Twins bullpen is outstanding, it did use two of its key late-inning arms in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in each of the last two days. The Yankees will hand the ball to impressive rookie start Jhony Brito. We won with the Yanks in his most recent start in Baltimore last Saturday. While he didn't have his best stuff in that contest, he still allowed just one earned run over five innings. Brito has posted a 2.70 FIP and 0.80 WHIP through two big league outings this season. Like the Twins, the Yankees have an elite bullpen that enters Thursday's action sporting a collective 1.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with four saves converted and only one blown. Take New York (8*). |
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04-12-23 | Mariners -104 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs have gotten the better of the Mariners in the first two games of this series but I think Seattle has the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide and end its three-game losing skid on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for the Mariners. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season in a similar situation last year as Gilbert took the ball in a matinee affair against the White Sox in Chicago and helped Seattle avoid the sweep with a terrific performance. I expect a similar outcome here. Gilbert had a fine Spring and he's picked up right where he left off in the regular season, recording a 3.01 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 10 innings of work. Behind Gilbert is a Mariners bullpen that got roughed up last night but has been solid in the early going this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Thanks to getting three innings from seldom-used Jose Rodriguez in mop-up duty the M's 'pen isn't in all that awful shape rest-wise entering Wednesday's matinee affair. Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Cubs. He's turned back the clock in a sense, following up an outstanding Spring with two fine outings to open the regular season (2.82 FIP and 0.92 WHIP). I can't help but feel regression is coming, however, noting that Stroman recorded a pedestrian 3.76 FIP and 1.15 WHIP last season. The Cubs have used key bullpen arm Mark Leiter Jr. in each of the last two nights so you have to figure he'll be unavailable on Wednesday. Chicago's bullpen entered last night's game having logged a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with one save converted and two blown on the campaign. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals have run into some tough pitching after a hot start to the season (offensively at least), recording single-digit hits in four of their last five games. In fact, they enter this game on a 1-6 slide but I look for them to turn things around on Tuesday. Cards starter Miles Mikolas is off to a rough start himself, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings so far this season. With that being said, things probably aren't as bad as his inflated 9.64 ERA would seem to indicate as he has actually posted a 2.86 FIP. Keep in mind, he had an outstanding Spring, not allowing a single earned run in three starts, covering a span of 12 innings. While Coors Field isn't exactly an ideal park to bounce back in, I'm confident Mikolas can pitch well enough to give his team a chance on Tuesday. St. Louis will get a chance to tee off on a left-hander for the first time since it delivered a 6-0 win over Eric Lauer and the Brewers on Saturday. The Cards check in 49-25, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs when facing left-handed starting pitching over the last 2+ seasons. St. Louis is also an incredible 46-19 in its last 65 games as a road favorite, outscoring the opposition by 1.9 runs on average along the way. Here, the Cards will face Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. He's off to an admittedly strong start - the polar opposite of Mikolas after Freeland endured a difficult Spring that saw him post an ERA approaching six and a 1.93 WHIP in 9 1/3 innings. I don't think we should get too excited about the fact that Freeland hasn't allowed an earned run through two starts as he has posted a less-than-impressive 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and his 3.16 FIP tells a different story compared to his flawless ERA. This will be the Cards third time seeing Freeland since the start of last season, connecting for nine earned runs on 17 hits over 10 1/3 innings over those two previous contests. The St. Louis bullpen is worth betting on in my opinion even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far (3.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings). The Rockies 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention the fact that it has already been overworked, logging north of 40 innings collectively. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-10-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers had a rough weekend in Arizona, dropping three straight games, allowing double-digit runs in the most recent two setbacks. They have the right guy on the mound to get them back on track on Monday in Julio Urias. He was good but not great in the Spring but has ramped up quickly in the regular season, recording a 1.65 FIP and 0.75 WHIP through two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Urias faced the Giants five times last season, allowing only three earned runs in 30 innings. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's been solid through two outings as well but his numbers certainly don't stand up to Urias', with a 3.40 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. The Dodgers should welcome the opportunity to face Webb after tagging him for 13 earned runs across four starts last season. While we've seen a couple of offensive breakouts from the Giants this season, I do think it's going to be a struggle for them to manufacture offense on most nights. We certainly saw that against the Royals over the weekend as they were barely able to salvage Sunday's series-finale with an eighth-inning rally. Here, they'll be in tough against a Dodgers bullpen that is in line for a bounce-back series, having logged a 4.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in a reasonable 32 2/3 innings. The Giants 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 30 frames so far this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-09-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +106 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series in lopsided fashion but I look for the Tigers to answer back and avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He was good, but certainly not great, during the Spring as he logged a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The wheels came off rather quickly in his regular season debut as he was tagged for seven earned runs in just four innings with 10 of 22 batters he faced reaching base. Crawford has yet to really show he can excel at the big league level after posting a 4.34 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in his rookie campaign last year. Matt Boyd had a terrific Spring and while he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his first regular season outing against the Astros, he did limit the damage giving up only two earned runs. Boyd showed promise in his last season with the Tigers in 2021 before an injury-shortened 2022 campaign with the Mariners saw him work just north of 13 innings. Boston's bullpen holds the edge based on early season numbers but has already been overworked, logging 36 2/3 innings through eight games. Take Detroit (8*). |
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04-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do expect Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios to pitch better than he did in his regular season debut against the Royals, I'm not convinced we'll see him out-duel a still-underrated Tyler Anderson on Saturday night in Anaheim. Berrios generally does bounce back from bad performances but this is still a tricky spot after the Angels tagged him for six earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings in this ballpark last May. Berrios didn't have a great Spring, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings. In stark contrast, Anderson posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 13 1/3 Spring innings and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season start, allowing only six of 24 batters to reach base over six shutout innings against Oakland. While I'll give the Blue Jays bullpen the slight edge, the gap isn't perhaps as wide as you might expect with the Angels relief corps having posted a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season. The Halos 'pen has also been asked to work just 23 innings through seven games which is certainly a positive. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-08-23 | Yankees -120 v. Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think we can buy low with rookie starter Jhony Brito and the Yankees on Saturday as they look to get back at the Orioles after dropping yesterday's series-opener by a 7-6 score. Brito was impressive during the Spring as he posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, allowing only 12-of-52 batters to reach base in 13 innings of work. He picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, yielding just two hits and no walks over five shutout innings against the Giants. Cole Irvin joined the Orioles by way of the A's in the offseason. He has proven very hittable over the course of his young career, allowing 9.5 hits per nine innings. That continued in the Spring as he was tagged for 10.5 hits per nine frames in 14 1/3 innings logged. His regular season debut didn't go so well either as he lasted only four innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits against the Red Sox. While the Yankees bullpen has posted the considerably better ERA, I do think the two relief corps' are more or less a wash so far this season. With that being said, I'm confident the Yankees can persevere in this bounce-back spot as they avoid losing consecutive games for the first time this season. Take New York (8*). |
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04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Friday. If the Twins are going to be true contenders in the American League this season, this is a good early 'measuring stick' series for them at home against the Astros. I like them to take the opener on Friday night with Sonny Gray taking the ball against Jose Urquidy. Gray hasn't received many accolades but he's pitched exceptionally well over the last few seasons in particular. Last year, Gray logged a 3.40 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He had a terrific Spring, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings and while his command wasn't necessarily there in his regular season debut he did battle through it to work five innings, allowing just three hits and no earned runs against the Royals. He'll obviously face a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Urquidy has been a bit of an enigma for the Astros. Last year he posted a less than impressive 4.60 FIP but a solid 1.17 WHIP and that's been about par for the course for him over his 4+ year big league career. Urquidy didn't have a great Spring and followed that up with a shaky first regular season outing, allowing seven hits and three earned runs including two home runs in only four innings against the White Sox. While the Astros bullpen has been solid in the early going this season, it has already been overworked, logging 28 1/3 innings. Contrast that with the Twins relief corps, which has been asked to work just 18 2/3 innings, recording a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-06-23 | Dodgers -144 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The D'Backs have hung tough through their first six games this season, managing to split a pair of road series' against tonight's opponent, the Dodgers, and the Padres. While I do think the Snakes can surprise in the N.L. West this season, I still feel there's a considerable gap between these two clubs and will back the Dodgers and starter Dustin May in a 'revenge' spot on Thursday. May was masterful in his season debut against these same D'Backs last weekend but was ultimately saddled with a no-decision in a 2-1 loss. After a terrific Spring, May picked up right where he left off, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against Arizona. Note that May has only gotten limited work in during the early stages of his big league career but when he's healthy, he's capable of big things, as he showed during his rookie campaign back in 2020 when he finished top-five in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Merrill Kelly will counter for the D'Backs. We saw an alarming trend emerge during his Spring starts as he issued four walks in only seven innings of work and that lack of command seems to have carried over to the regular season as well as he handed out four free passes in just 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers last weekend. Los Angeles has now seen Kelly a whopping six times since the start of last season. Last Friday marked the first time in any of those six games that Arizona actually managed to pick up a victory. Kelly has allowed 29 earned runs on 53 hits in his last 38 2/3 innings pitched against Los Angeles. Finally, I'll point out that the Snakes bullpen has recorded a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season while the Dodgers relief corps has posted a sparkling 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-06-23 | Giants +122 v. White Sox | 16-6 | Win | 122 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Alex Wood finally gets his first start of the season for the Giants on Thursday and I look for him to outduel White Sox veteran Lance Lynn. Wood had a fine Spring, posting a 3.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Last season, he recorded in inflated 5.10 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a solid 3.76 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Lynn labored to the tune of a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14 2/3 Spring innings and didn't pitch particularly well in his regular season debut either, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings but posting a 6.02 FIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a collective 7.97 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings of work this season. The Giants 'pen hasn't been lights out either, posting a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP but at least has the benefit of being relatively fresh, working just 16 1/3 innings to date. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night as the two starters duelled for five innings before things broke open in the second half of the game. Here, I look for the Marlins to answer back with Jesus Luzardo taking the ball against David Peterson of the Mets in a lefty-lefty matchup. Luzardo had a fine Spring, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 2/3 innings of work. I would put Luzardo in the undervalued category after he recorded a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in just north of 100 innings pitched last season. His counterpart, David Peterson, didn't give up a single earned run in the Spring but also pitched just 12 innings, issuing eight walks along the way. Peterson, like Luzardo, quietly had an impressive 2022 campaign, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. With that said, he allowed more hits, more walks and recorded fewer strikeouts per nine innings compared to Luzardo. Also note that the Marlins got to see him three times, seemingly getting better each time they faced him, culminating with a 6-3 win here at home in which they chased him from the game before the end of the fourth inning. The Mets saw Luzardo twice last season and he was more effective in his second outing against them, holding them to just two earned runs on four hits over six frames. The bullpens are pretty much a wash in my opinion and both had to work around three innings in yesterday's contest. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Phillies to extend this series to a seventh game with Zack Wheeler on the mound against Framber Valdez on Saturday. Philadelphia has yet to figure Valdez out in two previous looks at him but now they'll be seeing him for the third time in just over a month and I look for them to finally make the necessary adjustments and get to him on Saturday night in Houston. Speaking of adjustments, Wheeler will need to make his after he got rocked for four earned runs in just five innings in Game 2 of this series one week ago tonight. That was his first career outing against the Astros. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting that he had allowed a grand total of just six earned runs over his previous seven outings going back to September. Both bullpens have been lights out in this series and I expect more of the same here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +102 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Aaron Nola has not pitched well in his last two starts after turning in a pair of terrific outings to open the postseason. Just as I alluded to with Ranger Suarez last night, who had struggled mightily in his previous start against the Astros in early October, I look for Nola to make the necessary adjustments here and put his team on the brink of a World Series title. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He hasn't started since October 22nd when he held the Yankees to just one hit over 5 1/3 shutout innings. The Phillies aren't likely to be easy intimidated at the plate as I get the sense they feel they can hit anyone right now. We'll back them again here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +114 | 0-7 | Win | 114 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a shot with the Phillies on Tuesday as they return home after getting what they wanted in Houston, a 1-1 split in the first two games of this series. I like the fact that Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia here. He struggled in a start against the Astros back in early October but I expect him to make the necessary adjustments here, noting that he gave the Phils a terrific outing against the Padres last round, allowing one earned run over five innings. Philadelphia is 10-6 when Suarez starts in an underdog role this season. Meanwhile, the Astros are just 10-22 in Lance McCullers Jr.'s 32 career starts when priced between +125 and -125 as is the case here. Speaking of adjustments, the Phillies hitters will be looking to make the necessary adjustments as well after McCullers held them to one earned run over six innings back on October 3rd. That was in Houston. I expect a different story to unfold here in Philadelphia. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-15-22 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 3-8 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. After watching the raucous crowd supporting the Phillies yesterday, bettors may be a little hesitant to back the defending World Series champion Braves on Saturday, even as they face elimination. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back from yesterday's lopsided defeat, however, as they send veteran Charlie Morton to the hill against Noah Syndergaard of the Phillies. Morton struggled in his most recent start against Philadelphia back on September 25th, but the Braves still won that game, right here in the City of Brotherly Love, by a score of 8-7. I'm confident we'll see Morton make the necessary adjustments here and I don't expect him to come unglued the way rookie Spencer Strider did in the third inning yesterday. Syndergaard wasn't necessarily brought over to Philadelphia prior to the trade deadline with big starts like this in mind. He was acquired to give the team some additional depth in the starting rotation. It was always going to be guys like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that would be asked to do much of the heavy-lifting. Since joining the Phillies, Syndergaard has posted a 3.66 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, allowing a whopping 10.4 hits per nine innings. He's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, but I'm confident in Atlanta's ability to manufacture runs in this one, as it ultimately forces a fifth and deciding game in this series. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not a difficult decision to back the Braves against the red hot Phillies in Game 2 of this NLDS on Wednesday afternoon. Atlanta has one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball on the mound in 21-game winner Kyle Wright. While I'm not looking to make a habit of fading Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, I'll make an exception here. The Braves are 18-3 in their last 21 games after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. They're also 22-3 as a favorite with Wright starting this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays offense was non-existent against Mariners ace Luis Castillo yesterday, falling by a 4-0 score in a game that was never competitive. Here, I look for Toronto to answer back and salvage its season with a victory behind Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon. It may be surprising to some that Gausman actually led the league in FIP with a 2.38 this season. He did allow 3.71 runs per nine innings but that's still better than his counterpart on Saturday, Robbie Ray's 3.81 mark. Gausman didn't necessarily have his best stuff in his lone outing against Seattle this season, allowing two earned runs over five innings back in mid-May, but he does own a career 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in seven outings against the Mariners. Note that Ray checks in sporting a 4.17 FIP on the campaign. Note that Toronto has outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing at home off a loss this season (32-game sample size). The Blue Jays are also a long-term 309-263 (+55 net games) after scoring one run or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -125 | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays on Friday as they hand the ball to Alek Manoah for the opener of their Wild Card showdown against the Mariners. Manoah may be making his first postseason start but he has plenty of big game experience pitching for Toronto down the stretch. In that time, Manoah thrived, allowing just six earned runs over his final eight regular season starts, covering a span of 54 innings of work. Impressively, he lasted at least six innings in all eight of those outings. Mariners starter Luis Castillo didn't bring a wealth of big game experience to the team coming from the perennial bottom-feeding Reds. We saw Castillo wilt under the pressure down the stretch, allowing 13 earned runs over his final five regular season outings - a span of 27 2/3 innings. Castillo lasted at least six innings in only two of those five starts. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I'll give the Jays bats a considerable edge, noting that they averaged 6.0 runs per game over their final seven regular season contests while the Mariners put up just 4.9 rpg over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). |
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09-30-22 | Royals +121 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This will be our last chance to back Brady Singer this season and I like his chances of lifting the Royals out of their current slide. Singer checks in having posted a 0.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. Kansas City has incredibly won eight of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that the Royals did lose in a Singer start against these same Guardians earlier this month but I look for him to get his revenge here. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 21-13 in Singer's last 34 starts against A.L. Central opponents over the last two seasons. Aaron Civale will take the ball for Cleveland. He owns a 4.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Note that the Guardians have won just twice in his five career outings against Kansas City including an 11-1 defeat in his lone previous start against the Royals here at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams are playing some of their best baseball of the season down the stretch, not coincidentally as they deal with zero pressure having been out of the playoff race for months. Zack Greinke will get the start for the visiting Royals on Tuesday. He hasn't been awful this year, but he hasn't been good either. Greinke checks in with a 4.13 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over the last seven games. Detroit will counter with rookie Joey Wentz. He's been quietly impressive since returning to the bigs, lowering his FIP to 2.94 and his WHIP to 0.96 while yielding just 3.13 runs per nine innings in five starts this season. He actually faced the Royals on the road back on September 9th and didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings - the best start of his young career. Should Wentz falter, the Tigers bullpen behind him has been solid lately, logging a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games. The Detroit 'pen has blown only six saves at home this season while recording a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take Detroit (10*). |
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09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Rockies to answer back on Wednesday. Logan Webb carries a reputation as a front-of-the-rotation starter for San Francisco but he's looked anything but the part lately, lasting six innings or more only twice in his last six starts, failing to make it through the fifth inning in three of those outings. The Rockies have already seen him (and beat him) twice this season, scoring five earned runs on 11 hits in 12 2/3 innings. Note that Webb has recorded more than six strikeouts just once in eight career starts against Colorado. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's faced San Francisco once this season, holding it to three earned runs over six innings in a 5-3 win as a +225 underdog back on June 7th. For as poorly as the veteran right-hander has pitched at times this season, the Rockies bats do tend to come alive for him, noting that they've won nine of his 15 home outings here in 2022. Marquez actually brings his best form of the season into this start having lasted seven innings and allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. While the Giants are technically still alive in the N.L. Wild Card race, the reality is they're not going to make it as they sit 9.5 games back of the third and final spot. Despite losing the first two games in this series, the Rockies have been battling, going 7-5 over their last 12 contests. Take Colorado (10*). |
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09-14-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 3-5 | Win | 120 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I can't help but feel this is a 'throwaway game' for the Dodgers after taking the first two games of the series in lopsided fashion. They'll send rookie Michael Grove to the hill. He hasn't fared particularly well in 9 1/3 innings at the big league level this season but worse still, he allowed 2.4 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings at the highest minor league level he pitched at last season (Double-A) and we're not talking about a small sample size as he's logged 71 innings. This year he has logged a 3.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, still yielding 1.3 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings in time split between Double and Triple-A. Zach Davies has held his own in three previous starts against the Dodgers this season with the D'Backs splitting his two home outings against them. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price at hitter-friendly Coors Field but I look for him to bounce back here at home where he owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. Take Arizona (8*). |
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09-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +112 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 112 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers took the opener of this two-game set by an 8-4 score last night. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Wednesday. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. After topping out at six strikeouts in his previous five starts, he K'd 14 batters against the Giants last time out. You would have to go back six starts against the Cardinals to find the last time St. Louis picked up a win against Burnes. With that being said, I believe there's reason for optimism on Wednesday. Cards starter Adam Wainwright is one of the fiercest competitors in baseball so you can be sure his last two rocky outings haven't sat well with him. On a positive note, he's given up just one home run in his last nine starts and hasn't issued a walk in three of his last five outings. He checks in sporting a 2.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season. With a comfortable cushion atop the N.L. Central Division, the Cards may not have a lot to motivate them at the moment but I believe avoiding a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Brewers should do the trick on Wednesday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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09-12-22 | Braves -170 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Tough turnaround for the Giants here as they played a night game in Chicago last night (they won 4-2) and now have to return home to host the Braves on Monday. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after dropping consecutive games against the Mariners over the weekend. I like the Braves chances of rebounding here with impressive rookie Spencer Strider getting the start. Strider will be out for revenge after he turned in one of his worst performances of the season against the Giants back in June (six ER in 3 2/3 innings). He's been terrific lately, allowing a grand total of five earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 31 innings. In his last 20 innings of work he's struck out 32 batters. Alex Cobb will counter for San Francisco. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings and allowed three earned runs on seven hits against the Dodgers last time out. Facing the Dodgers and Braves in succession is obviously a tall order for any pitcher and I expect Cobb to struggle again here. While the Braves bullpen coughed one up against the Mariners yesterday, it entered that contest sporting a collective 1.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with only 13 saves converted and seven blown at home this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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09-12-22 | Rangers v. Marlins -118 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers salvaged the finale of their three-game series with the Blue Jays yesterday but I look for their winning ways to be short-lived as they head to Miami to face the Marlins in Game 1 of a day-night double-header on Monday. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. After getting a cup of coffee with the big club last season (he pitched just over 20 innings), he's struggled here in 2022, posting a 5.16 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing north of 5.1 runs per nine innings. He looks very much like a pitcher that might be running out of gas down the stretch, having failed to last more than five innings in any of his last three outings. Marlins starter Trevor Rogers has seemingly regained his form since returning from injury. He's given up just four earned runs in 12 innings, striking out 13 and walking only one, in two starts since returning to the rotation in late August. While the Rangers bullpen brings better recent form to the table, it's worth noting that they've converted just 14 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season. Look for Miami to bounce back from yesterday's beatdown at the hands of the Mets. Take Miami (8*). |
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09-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Tigers have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Royals to answer back on Sunday. Tyler Alexander takes the ball for Detroit. He checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing north of 5.7 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals have never faced him but going up against an opponent for the first time hasn't necessarily led to success for Alexander in the past and I don't believe it will here either. Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he owns a career 2.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine previous starts against Detroit. Singer owns a 3.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals should own an advantage in the later innings as well as their bullpen has posted a collective 2.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games while Detroit's relief corps checks in with a 5.62 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Orioles just dropped three of four games against the Blue Jays to fall 4.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Needless to say, they can ill afford another slip-up this weekend against the Red Sox. Fortunately for Baltimore, Boston is reeling as well, fresh off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays. The Red Sox will hand the ball to rookie Brayan Bello on Friday. He's coming off the best start of his young career, tossing six shutout innings against the Rangers. That start came at home. In two road outings, Bello has been tagged for eight earned runs on 12 hits in just eight innings. Austin Voth will counter for Baltimore. He's quietly enjoying a terrific season - the best of his young career - but he didn't have his best stuff last time out, yielding six hits and one earned run while lasting only 3 1/3 innings. While the two bullpens enter in similar recent form, the O's have without question had more success in that department this season, posting a collective 2.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while converting 18 saves and blowing only six here at home. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a smash spot for the Brewers after getting their lunch handed to them in the last two games in Colorado. Corbin Burnes is also in a big-time bounce-back spot after three consecutive poor outings. The Giants haven't figured him out yet this year as they've managed to scratch out just one earned run in 14 innings, striking out 21 times along the way. San Francisco's season continues to circle down the drain after another series loss in Los Angeles. The Giants look like they could be 'punting' this one, starting Scott Alexander who will likely play an 'opener' role here. Brewers bounce back. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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09-07-22 | Brewers -133 v. Rockies | 4-8 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always looking for spots where pitchers (and hitters) can make the necessary adjustments in particular matchups and this situation sets up nicely for the Brewers on both fronts. Eric Lauer struggled against the Rockies back on July 24th, yielding four earned runs on six hits and lasting only 4 1/3 innings. In two starts against them last year he gave up just three earned runs over 11 innings. Since that late-July outing, Lauer has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last seven trips to the hill. Meanwhile, the Brewers were held scoreless over seven innings against today's opposing starter, Kyle Freeland, back on July 25th. That was in Milwaukee. They'll catch him at Coors Field today, where he owns a 6.10 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. Both bullpens are in similar recent form but it's the Brewers relief corps that has been more reliable as a whole this season, entering last night's action with a 3.85 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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09-01-22 | Dodgers -140 v. Mets | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mets snapped their brief two-game skid with a victory behind another stellar outing from Jacob deGrom last night. Here, I look for the Dodgers answer back and secure the series win. Clayton Kershaw will make his first start since the first week of August for the Dodgers. Before hitting the shelf, Kershaw had posted a 2.72 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while allowing only 3.06 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he'll be facing a Mets team that averages just 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to their 4.7 rpg season scoring average. Los Angeles' bullpen has been terrific all season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm generally high on Bassitt. However, his numbers just don't match Kershaw's this season as he checks in with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. Also note that the Dodgers will be seeing him for the second time this year after knocking him around for four runs, three of them earned, over six innings back in June. In fact, in two games against Bassitt going back to last season the Dodgers have plated seven earned runs on 14 hits in 12 innings. There's not a lot negative I can say about the Mets bullpen as a whole this season, but it is worth noting that it entered last night's action with a 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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08-31-22 | Royals v. White Sox -187 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Royals in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the White Sox on Wednesday as they send veteran Lance Lynn to the mound against Kris Bubic of the Royals. Bubic has been a punching bag for us (and opposing hitters) all season long, recording a 4.80 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.25 runs per nine innings. He actually held up well against the White Sox back on August 10th. I'm confident the White Sox will get their revenge here, noting that Bubic has posted a 9.45 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in three starts since that outing. Lance Lynn has also had a tough time this season but he's marginally better than Bubic and has an excellent track record against the Royals. Note that Lynn owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while yielding 5.59 runs per nine innings this season. In his last three home starts against the Royals, including an outing earlier this month, he has allowed just three earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. The Kansas City bullpen has been a mess, posting a collective 7.40 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games. The White Sox 'pen hasn't been anything special, but like Lynn against Bubic, it is marginally better than the Royals relief corps and has converted 19 saves while blowing only nine at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). |
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08-29-22 | Phillies -174 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -174 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 5-0 loss to the Pirates yesterday. Meanwhile, the D'Backs wrapped up a three-game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago. Here, I look for both teams fortunes to turn once again. Philadelphia will hand the ball to left-hander Ranger Suarez. He's actually pitched better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 11 starts. He'll be out for revenge here after giving up two earned runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 13-1 rout at the hands of the D'Backs back in June. Note that Suarez owns a 3.68 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing 3.9 runs per nine innings on the campaign. Fellow left-hander Madison Bumgarner will get the start for the D'Backs. He checks in with a 4.65 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings this season. Bumgarner has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last month, allowing a whopping 24 earned runs across his last five starts, spanning just 28 2/3 innings. While the Phillies bullpen hasn't been lights out lately, it has been far better than that of the D'Backs. Arizona's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 10.54 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs 'pen has converted just 12 saves while blowing nine at home this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies bullpen has made good on 19 saves while blowing only eight away from home. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-28-22 | Braves v. Cardinals -120 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have split the first two games in this series and I look for the Cardinals to have the early advantage in Sunday's finale. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the visiting Braves. He owns a 4.20 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing a shade over 4.5 runs per nine innings this season. Odorizzi pitched one of his best games of the season last time out, allowing just one earned run over six innings but that came against the light-hitting Pirates. Across his previous two starts he had allowed seven earned runs in nine innings. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for the Cards. He's enjoying a terrific season having recorded a 3.62 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while yielding 3.17 runs per nine innings. He faced the Braves once last season, allowing only one earned run while striking out 11 in seven innings in a 9-1 victory. We'll back the Cards in the first five innings only in this one as the Braves should have the edge in terms of the bullpens, based on recent form (the St. Louis 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over the last seven games). Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). |
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08-28-22 | Giants +100 v. Twins | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Twins have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to salvage the finale on Sunday afternoon. Jakob Junis will take the ball for San Francisco. He's quietly having a fine campaign, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Giants bullpen that has been terrific lately, logging a 1.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Aaron Sanchez will get another turn in the Twins rotation. He's struggled this season, recording a 4.71 FIP and 1.69 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.59 runs per nine innings. The Twins bullpen hasn't been much better lately, sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take San Francisco (9*). |
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08-27-22 | Dodgers -190 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. It wasn't easy but the Dodgers ultimately hung 10 runs on the Marlins in an extra innings victory last night. I expect a more straightforward result on Saturday. Los Angeles will give Dustin May his second start since coming off the I.L. - his second straight outing against these same Marlins. May was terrific in his season debut, allowing just one hit while striking out nine and walking two in five shutout innings. Note that May was also sharp in six minor league rehab outings, posting a sparkling 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He should have the advantage of having a fresh arm down the stretch, unlike his counterpart on Saturday, Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. We've won plenty supporting Alcantara (or the 'under') in many of his starts this season but I won't hesitate to go the other way on Saturday. To say the Dodgers have had the Marlins ace's number would be an understatement. He's faced them four times in his career, allowing 23 earned runs in only 14 innings of work. That includes a 3 2/3 innings outing in which he was tagged for six earned runs last week in Los Angeles. The bullpen matchup favors the Dodgers as well as their relief corps has posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Marlins 'pen has recorded a collective 5.68 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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08-26-22 | Guardians -110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I wanted a piece of the Guardians yesterday in the opener of this series but that was before they opened as a favorite. I ultimately decided to lay off (thankfully) but won't do the same on Friday as they send their ace to the hill in Shane Bieber against Logan Gilbert of the Mariners. Bieber has quietly posted a 2.83 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while giving up 3.35 runs per nine innings this season. He didn’t fare particularly well in a pair of starts against the Mariners last year but has yet to face them here in 2022. Note that he has recorded a sparkling 1.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three outings. Logan Gilbert checks in with a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. He's now logged a career-high 143 1/3 innings this season which is more than he pitched in AAA and the majors combined during his rookie campaign last year. On the season, Gilbert has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 0.7 more hits, 0.4 more home runs and 0.6 more walks per nine innings compared to Bieber. While both bullpens have been terrific lately, the Guardians relief corps has been a little better. In fact, Cleveland's 'pen hasn't allowed a single earned run while recording a collective 0.76 WHIP over the last seven games. It has converted 21 saves whlie blowing only 10 on the road this season. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-25-22 | Blue Jays -162 v. Red Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. While this will be the Red Sox fifth look at Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman this season, they’ve yet to have much success and I’m not convinced anything will change on Thursday. Gausman owns a sparkling 2.05 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP while giving up less than 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. Behind him is a Blue Jays bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a collective 2.66 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. Kutter Crawford will counter for Boston. He’s had a rough rookie campaign so far, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. Note that the Jays will be seeing Crawford for the second time after scoring three earned runs in six innings against him in a 4-1 victory in July. The Red Sox bullpen behind Crawford continues to struggle. It has recorded a collective 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night’s action). Take Toronto (8*) |
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08-24-22 | Rangers -130 v. Rockies | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers have both the starting pitching and bullpen edge in this game and we’ll back them as a short favourite on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. Martin Perez has ‘turned back the clock’ for Texas this season - in fact, he’s having a career year. Perez checks in with a 3.39 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up only 3.22 runs per nine innings. He’ll be looking for revenge here after giving up three earned runs on seven hits over four innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Rockies back in April. The Rangers bullpen has been quietly effective lately, sporting a 2.92 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Journeyman right-hander Jose Urena gets another turn in the rotation for the Rockies. He’s had a tough time following a solid start to his Colorado stint, posting a 5.57 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.65 runs per nine innings. Behind Urena is a Rockies bullpen that checks in with a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven contests (also entering last night’s action). Take Texas (8*). |
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08-23-22 | Blue Jays -135 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jays have certainly had the Red Sox number this season, taking five of six previous meetings. I look for their series dominance to continue on Tuesday. Ross Stripling has been the unsung hero of the Blue Jays starting rotation this season, posting a 2.87 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.34 runs per nine innings. He hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in three previous outings against Boston this season, allowing five earned runs in 14 innings of work, but the Jays still won two of those three games including an 8-4 victory here at Fenway Park. Rookie Josh Winckowski will counter for Boston. He remains with the big club out of necessity only as he continues to struggle. Winckowski has recorded a 5.21 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.34 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup favors the Blue Jays here as well as their relief corps checks in sporting a collective 1.96 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 7.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-23-22 | White Sox -139 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. White Sox starter Dylan Cease didn't have his best stuff last time out but his team bailed him out in an eventual 4-3 win over the Astros. It was a different story for Orioles starter Austin Voth who tossed six shutout innings in Toronto before the Baltimore bullpen coughed it up in a 6-1 defeat. Here, we'll back Cease in the first five innings only as the White Sox bullpen continues to struggle. Note that Cease owns a stellar 2.87 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.76 runs per nine innings. Voth on the other hand has posted a 3.86 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. While Cease does allow 1.3 more walks per nine innings compared to Voth, he's made up for it by yielding 3.5 fewer hits and striking out 3.6 more batters per nine frames. Take Chicago first five innings (8*). |
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08-22-22 | Marlins -134 v. A's | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami first five innings over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. PLEASE NOTE: Edward Cabrera will start in place of Pablo Lopez for the Marlins. We'll stick with the play as this is more of a fade of Oller, albeit at a slightly lower rating. The Marlins just got swept in a three-game series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and have now dropped four games in a row overall. I do look for them to bounce back, at least early on, in Monday's game in Oakland. Miami will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez. He checks in sporting a 3.77 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while yielding 4.03 runs per nine innings. He'll be facing an A's club that while coming off a series win over the Mariners, still averages just 3.5 runs per game at home this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.97 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Oakland will give Adam Oller another turn in the rotation. He pitched exceptionally well last time out against Texas but the rest of his campaign hasn't gone nearly as smoothly. Oller owns a 6.36 FIP and 1.69 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work, yielding north of 7.1 runs per nine innings. Take Miami first five innings (8*). |
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08-22-22 | Mets -156 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -156 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on the Mets first five innings over the Yankees at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We'll back the Mets in the first five innings only on Monday as while they hold a significant starting pitching advantage, I'm not interested in involving their struggling bullpen, which entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.26 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games. Max Scherzer will get the start for the visiting Mets on Monday. He's having another terrific campaign, posting a 2.42 FIP and 0.93 WHIP while yielding just 2.31 runs per nine innings. Note that he has allowed 3.1 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 1.2 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with his counterpart in this one, Domingo German of the Yankees. German owns a 4.50 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season, giving up an average of 4.45 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mets have already seen him once, scoring two earned runs on five hits including one home run over 4 2/3 innings back on July 27th. Note that the Mets entered yesterday's action having posted a 54-26 record while averaging 5.0 runs per game (compared to their 4.8 rpg season scoring average) against right-handed starting pitching this season. Take the Mets first five innings (10*). |
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08-21-22 | Giants -125 v. Rockies | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Giants on Sunday as they send Jakob Junis to the mound against Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Junis is having a fine, albeit injury-plagued, season having posted a 3.61 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while holding opponents to 3.53 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen has turned things around after a rough stretch, posting a collective 2.29 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Colorado will hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, who has had a tough season, recording a 4.39 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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08-20-22 | Mets v. Phillies -157 | 8-2 | Loss | -157 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night but I look for the Phillies to answer right back in the opener of Saturday's double-header. Trevor Williams will return to the mound for the first time in over a month for the Mets. He owns a 4.01 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Mets bullpen has posted a 5.88 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the last seven games. Philadelphia will hand the ball to its ace Zack Wheeler. He was rocked for six earned runs by these same Mets in his most recent outing but I look for him to respond with a much better start here. Wheeler checks in with a 2.97 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding 3.19 runs per nine innings this season. The Phillies bullpen has recorded a collective 2.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-19-22 | Cardinals -168 v. Diamondbacks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Cardinals in this series-opener on Friday in Arizona. Miles Mikolas is having another solid campaign for the Cards, posting a 3.71 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while giving up only 3.68 runs per nine innings. The issue with St. Louis is its bullpen which has recorded a collective 6.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action. We’ll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. Rookie left-hander Tommy Henry will take the ball for Arizona. He’s now logged 17 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, recording a 5.13 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while yielding 4.15 runs per nine innings. The Cards are 17-9 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7 rpg). Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). |
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08-19-22 | Astros v. Braves -125 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Houston at 7:20 pm et on Friday. Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. looked good in his return from injury last time out, tossing six innings of two-hit, shutout ball. However, he had struggled at the minor league level working his way back and I think he’ll be in tough against the Braves on Friday. Note that the Houston bullpen has been awful lately, recording a collective 6.91 ERA and 2.16 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action. On the flip side, the Braves bullpen entered last night’s series-finale against the Mets sporting a collective 1.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests (and proceeded to toss another two scoreless frames). Atlanta will start Kyle Wright on Friday. He’s been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball this season as far as I’m concerned. Wright owns a 3.67 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding the opposition to 3.34 runs per nine innings. He’ll be facing the Astros for the first time in his career, as will be the case with McCullers Jr. against the Braves. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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08-19-22 | Royals v. Rays -195 | 3-2 | Loss | -195 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. As high as I’ve been on Royals starter Brady Singer lately, I’ll go with the Rays on Friday as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan. McClanahan hasn’t necessarily had his best stuff over his last few outings. With that being said, he still owns a 2.64 FIP and 0.87 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. His lone previous start against the Royals came last year as he tossed five shutout innings in a 7-2 Rays victory here in St. Petersburg. Behind McClanahan is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 22 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Singer has been terrific lately as I mentioned, lowering his FIP to 3.61 and his WHIP to 1.13. He’s giving up just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Rays will be seeing Brady Singer for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back on July 23rd (three hits, two runs - one of them earned - while striking out 12 times). That game was played in Kansas City. The big problem for the Royals is their bullpen, which has posted a collective 7.77 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games, entering this series, not to mention just 13 saves converted compared to 11 blown on the road this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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08-19-22 | Reds -114 v. Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for the Reds, early on at least, as they send Graham Ashcraft to the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates. Ashcraft hasn’t been dominant by any stretch but he does boast a solid 4.15 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine innings. That’s considerably better than his opponent on Friday, Wilson, who has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings this season. Also note that the Reds have already seen Bryse Wilson once this season and twice since the start of last year while Ashcraft will have the advantage of facing the Buccos for the first time. We’ll play the first five innings only as the Reds bullpen continues to struggle, particularly on the road where it owns a 5.07 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season. Take Cincinnati first five innings (10*). |
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08-18-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -135 | 9-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays got back on track with a 6-1 win over the Orioles yesterday while the Yankees snapped their losing streak in thrilling walk-off fashion in extra innings against the Rays. Here, I look for the Yanks to keep it going in the opener of this four-game series in the Bronx. Jose Berrios will get the call for the Blue Jays. He's been a big disappointment at the front of the Toronto rotation this year, posting a 5.07 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.61 runs per nine innings. This doesn't appear to be an ideal 'get right' spot for the right-hander as the Yankees have already seen him twice this season, knocking him around for eight earned runs on 11 hits over 10 1/3 innings. For his career, Berrios owns a 5.05 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts against New York. Frankie Montas continues to search for his first quality outing in Yankee pinstripes. I'm confident it's coming. For the season, Montas has recorded a 3.53 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while holding the opposition to 4.15 runs per nine innings. He's allowed 2.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Berrios. Note that Montas did face the Blue Jays once previously in his career, allowing three earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 victory as a member of the A's last season. The Yankees boast one of baseball's elite bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Jays 'pen has been solid lately as well, I believe we have enough of a starting pitching edge that the later innings 'wash' won't play a factor. Take New York (8*). |
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08-18-22 | Astros -124 v. White Sox | 21-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Astros got back at the White Sox with a 3-2 victory last night and I look for them to get off to another solid start in Thursday afternoon's series-finale. Luis Garcia gets the start for Houston. He's been good but certainly not great as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Astros this season, checking in with a 3.93 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing 4.41 runs per nine innings. I do like the fact that he enters this start on a full five days' rest - that matters as we near the later stages of the regular season. Chicago will hand the ball to Lucas Giolito who will be starting on just four days' rest after matching a season-high working seven innings in his most recent outing. It's been a trying campaign for the right-hander as he has posted a 4.10 FIP and 1.49 WHIP, yielding 5.24 runs per nine innings. Note that Giolito allows 2.5 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings this season compared to his counterpart on Thursday, Garcia. The Astros saw Giolito back in mid-June, chasing him after five innings but not before scoring eight earned runs. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 8.27 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over the last seven games and one that has been significantly worse on the road compared to at home this season. Take Houston first five innings (8*). |