Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-21 | Phillies -120 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies got blasted by the Marlins last night but I look for them to bounce back with their most consistent starter (recently anyway) in Ranger Suarez taking the ball against Trevor Rogers (who makes his first start since July) on Saturday. Note that Philadelphia is 13-4 after allowing nine runs or more in a game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. They're 20-8 after suffering a loss by four runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 0-8 after giving up four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs on those eight previous occasions. Take Philadelphia (9*). |
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09-03-21 | White Sox -114 v. Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Royals would certainly appear to have the edge given the two starting pitcher's current form entering Friday's series-opener. However, a closer look indicates the White Sox are well-positioned to keep winning off three consecutive victories. Kansas City is in an awful negative momentum situation here having gone 0-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, outscored by a whopping 3.9 runs on average in that situation. The Royals are just 7-24 when coming off three or more consecutive losses this season, outscored by 3.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a reliable favorite, having gone 94-47, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs when priced at -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Should this line climb a bit, they would be in a situation where they've gone 52-24 when priced between -125 and -175 over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per contest on average in that spot. Take Chicago (9*). |
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09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Milwaukee at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants haven't exactly been at their best lately but with arguably the most underrated starter in baseball taking the mound for them in Logan Webb on Thursday afternoon, I look for them to get past Eric Lauer and the Brewers. First let's deal with Lauer. The Giants haven't seen him since 2019 when they faced the left-hander three times, clearly figuring him out over the last two of those games, scoring nine earned runs including three home runs in just 12 innings. Lauer hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. While he's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, his command has been lacking lately as he's issued five walks in nine innings over his last two starts. The Brewers bullpen has been outstanding this season, with one exception. Milwaukee's relief corps has posted a less than impressive 4.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 12 blown in day games. As I mentioned, Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, particularly here at home where he has posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Giants winning all eight of his previous starts. Webb will be looking to exact a little revenge here. He pitched well, allowing only one earned run on three hits over six innings in Milwaukee back on August 6th but the Giants ultimately dropped that contest by a 2-1 score. Note that Webb brings fantastic form to the table having recorded a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings. The Giants bullpen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 2.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -142 | 5-4 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We were all set to fade the Cardinals last night before the game was postponed. We'll certainly do so again here in the first game of Wednesday's double-header as the starting pitching matchup is even more favorable for the Reds with Wade Miley going up against Miles Mikolas. Miley has been the picture of consistency. Back on July 9th he sported a 2.80 ERA. Fast forward nine starts and his ERA sits at 2.74. He brings excellent form to the table here having posted a 0.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last three outings - all Reds victories. Mikolas, meanwhile, makes just his fourth start after not starting a game since 2019 due to injury. He's held up alright but keep in mind, his first three outings this season have come against the lowly Cubs and Pirates (twice). Last time out he was actually on the losing end of an 11-7 game, allowing eight hits and three earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh. Take Cincinnati (6*). |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. |
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08-30-21 | Padres -165 v. Diamondbacks | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres got a much-needed day off on Sunday. Meanwhile, the D'Backs dropped their third straight game against the Phillies and haven't had an off day since August 16th. That leaves a bad Snakes bullpen in dire straights having already posted an awful 5.38 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. First, they'll have to face Padres starter Chris Paddack, who returns from a stint on the I.L. He's been quietly terrific on the road this season, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the Padres winning seven of his 10 starts. Before he got hurt, San Diego had won six of his last eight outings overall so perhaps he can step in and turn the tide for its fading playoff hopes here. Tyler Gilbert tossed a stunning no-hitter in his big league debut against these same Padres three starts back. He hasn't been able to follow that performance up, however, allowing six earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings. I look for San Diego to exact a little revenge in this one. Take San Diego (9*). |
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08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -179 | 3-1 | Loss | -179 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We followed Jon Lester's last start closely as we had an 'over' ticket in hand as the Cards hosted the Tigers. Detroit had little trouble putting runners on base but simply couldn't get the clutch hits it needed to truly get to Lester in that one. It doesn't change the fact that he's been awful this season. Lester checks in sporting a 6.15 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in eight road starts with his teams winning just three of those games. While the Cards are coming off a series win over the Pirates, they're essentially going nowhere while the Reds continue to battle for a playoff spot. Tonight's Cincinnati starter, Luis Castillo, is a big reason why the Reds are still in the race. He checks in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last three outings. The last time he faced St. Louis he guided the Reds to a 5-3 win back on July 25th, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. Even if the Reds bats fail to get to Lester on Monday, they'll have a good chance against a Cards 'pen that blew its ninth save on the road yesterday and owns a collective 1.49 WHIP away from home this season. Take Cincinnati (9*). |
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08-28-21 | Nationals v. Mets -206 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Mets are essentially out of the playoff race thanks to their current slump, I think we'll see them show some pride with Marcus Stroman on the hill on Saturday as they snap their four-game skid here at home against the lowly Nationals. Stroman was on the hill for the Mets last win, that coming against one of the best teams in baseball, the Dodgers, in Los Angeles last Sunday. Despite his team's struggles, Stroman continues to pitch well and I expect more of the same on Saturday. He owns a terrific 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings with New York winning two of those games, including a 4-1 victory over Washington. Sean Nolin meanwhile has made two starts for the Nats and neither was good as he was tagged for seven earned runs on 14 hits in just seven innings of work. Expect the Mets bats to wake up and get to him early and often in this one. Take New York (5*). |
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08-28-21 | Brewers -144 v. Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Brewers bats have been silent over the last two games, leading to rare consecutive losses for the previously red hot club. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Adrian Houser and his 8-2 team record in 10 previous road starts. Houser has done everything the Brewers have asked of him, posting a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, guiding his team to 14 wins in 20 starts. You would have to go back five starts to May 21st to find the last time Milwaukee lost a Houser road outing. Meanwhile, Twins starter Charlie Barnes continues to struggle. He has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in just shy of 19 innings this season with those numbers rising to 8.36 and 1.79 over his last three outings. Telling is the fact that he has topped out at three strikeouts while posting fewer than that in three of his four big league starts. Behind Barnes is a Twins bullpen that has generally been awful this season and entered last night's game with a collective 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (5*). |
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08-28-21 | Royals v. Mariners -148 | 4-2 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series in excruciating fashion but I look for them to bounce back on Saturday afternoon as they look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Rookie Daniel Lynch will get the start for Kansas City. He has had some positive starts but all told has posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, not to mention a 44.5% hard-hit ball percentage and .282 opponents batting average. Tyler Anderson has pitched well for the Mariners since coming over prior to the trade deadline. In his lone start here at T-Mobile Park he allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. Look for him to step up here as the Mariners earn a much-needed victory. Take Seattle (5*). |
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08-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -225 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are reeling right now but as much as they've struggled to find wins lately, they're still in the N.L. playoff race. Thanks to playing in a weak N.L. East, they're looking up at just one team and that's the Atlanta Braves. They currently sit five games back of the division lead but with the Braves getting ready for a tough series against the red hot Giants this weekend, the opportunity is there to gain some ground. But they need to start winning. I think it happens on Friday night. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the D'Backs. We won with the 'over' in his most recent start. Note that the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time in as many weeks. They fell short by a 3-2 score the last time they faced him on August 27th. That was in Arizona. Note that the D'Backs are a miserable 17-49 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of nearly two runs. Widener has struggled at night for whatever reason, posting a 5.21 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight starts. The D'Backs have won just three of those eight contests. Despite Arizona finding a bit of success lately, its bullpen remains unreliable. Snakes relievers entered last night's game sporting a 7.23 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over their last seven contests and proceeded to almost cough up an 8-2 ninth inning lead last night as well (they held on for an 8-7 victory). Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He has been terrific at home this season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. While his ERA north of five in 15 nighttime starts leaves a lot to be desired, his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.22. Note that Nola should bring some confidence into this start after coming just one out short of a complete game against the Padres in his last outing, striking out 11 while issuing just two walks and giving up two earned runs on two hits. Nola has the benefit of having not faced the D'Backs since 2017 so a lot of their hitters have never seen him pitch. The Phillies bullpen has been uneven all season but has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only nine here at home. Their numbers are of course far superior to those of the D'Backs. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
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08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. No one wants any part of the Padres in this spot but we do. Last night's game was pressure-packed. The 16-inning thriller left the Padres with yet another loss. Now I think that pressure is off. With their Wild Card lead having disappeared, no one is expecting San Diego to recover. However, the opportunity is still there and I expect it to salvage the finale of this series with the Dodgers on Thursday. It's rare that we can back Yu Darvish in an underdog role but that's the case here. He's back on the mound following a stint on the I.L. as he was dealing with back issues. That was clearly evident in his most recent start as he struggled against the lowly D'Backs. I don't believe Darvish would be back unless he felt he was ready and expect him to step in and perform well against the Dodgers, just as he has in three previous starts against them this season (3 ER allowed in 20 IP). The Padres could certainly use this game as a potential turning point, noting that Darvish has posted an 11-3 team record in 14 home starts this season Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter Max Scherzer has been lit up by the Padres twice already this season, allowing 11 ER in 10 2/3 IP. His teams are just 6-6 all-time in his 12 career outings against San Diego including a 2-2 mark in his four starts against the Pads' since 2019. Scherzer has yet to lose in four starts since joining the Dodgers but I think it comes here. Note that San Diego is still 44-28 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per contest. L.A. has won 15 of its last 17 games - its best stretch of the season. I'll go the contrarian route here. Take San Diego (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Royals v. Astros -217 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals stayed hot, notching their fourth straight win in convincing fashion in the opener of this series in Houston last night. Look for the Astros to answer back on Tuesday as they avoid dropping their third game in a row in the midst of a playoff race. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. After making his last five starts at home, he'll head back out on the road where he has posted a 5.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight starts this season, with the Royals winning just two of those games. Note that Singer enters this start sporting a disastrous 10.21 ERA and 2.43 WHIP over his last three outings. The Royals bullpen has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, recording a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's action. They haven't had an off day since August 12th and were forced to log another four innings last night with starter Daniel Lynch lasting only five frames. Luis Garcia will counter for the Astros. He's by no means a household name but he's pitched exceptionally well for Houston - particularly here at home where he owns a 1.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 10 starts with the Astros winning seven of those games. Houston has done a great job of supporting Garcia, plating a whopping 38 runs over his last six starts. Despite last night's loss, the Astros are still 14 games over .500 at home this season where they outscore opponents by well north of 1.0 run per game. After dropping three of four games in Kansas City last week, they can't afford to let another series slip away against the lowly Royals. Take Houston (5*). |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped three games in a row after losing the opener of this brief two-game series by a 5-3 score last night. Expect them to bounce back on Tuesday afternoon. Chris Flexen will get the call for the Mariners. While the M's are 7-3 in his 10 road outings this season, he hasn't pitched particularly well, recording a 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. After a stretch that saw him give up just one home run in five starts, he's now allowed at least one long ball in four of his last five trips to the hill. The A's will be getting their third look at Flexen this season having had plenty of previous success, scoring seven earned runs on 13 hits while walking three times and striking out only four in 11 1/3 innings of work. Of course, Oakland has gotten even stronger offensively since the trade deadline which is notable as Flexen hasn't faced the A's since July 22nd. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a whopping 16 blown saves. Cole Irvin issued a season-high four walks while matching a season-low with only one strikeout in his most recent start. Still, he managed to work six innings in an eventual 5-4 win over a playoff-bound White Sox club, on the road no less. Now he's back home where he owns a solid 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. Note that the A's haven't dropped an Irvin home start since back on May 30th against the Angels. They've reeled off five straight wins with Irvin on the hill here at the Coliseum since. Speaking of pitching at home, the A's bullpen entered last night's action having converted 16 saves while blowing only five here at home this season. Currently on the outside looking in (by a game) in the A.L. Wild Card hunt and with their division title hopes fading, look for the A's to earn a much-needed victory on Tuesday afternoon. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Toronto first five innings at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The White Sox didn't have a banner weekend in St. Petersburg, dropping two of three games against the Rays. I do expect them to get off to a strong start at the very least against the struggling Blue Jays on Monday. Lance Lynn will take the ball for Chicago. He's having another terrific season and checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts. While he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Monday that's not a major concern as he's worked just nine innings combined in his last two starts. Lynn didn't get a victory in his lone previous start against Toronto this season but did pitch well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings, striking out nine along the way. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a White Sox bullpen that hasn't had a day off in a week-and-a-half. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He labored through just three innings while allowing six earned runs in his most recent start. He'll be dealing with quite a bit of pressure in this start as the Blue Jays desperately need a strong outing to get back on track and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I expect the White Sox to take advantage of facing Manoah for the second time this season. While he was on the mound for a 6-2 Jays win in Chicago back in early June, it's not as if he was dominant, striking out only four while allowing four hits and two walks over five innings. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres -157 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. If the Padres are to have any hope of staying in the playoff race, they need to start winning games. It really is as simple as that. After suffering a tough 4-3 loss to the Phillies last night, I look for them to get back in the win column here. Aaron Nola has been the weak link in the Phillies rotation. They've lost six of his last nine starts and he has posted a 5.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with a 5-8 team record on the road this season. Entering last night's game the Phillies bullpen had converted 14 saves but blown 11 on the road this season. Joe Musgrove turned in one of his worst outings of the season against the lowly D'Backs last time out. Look for him to make amends back at home where he owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 7-5 team record in 12 starts this season. The Padres bullpen entered last night's action sporting a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take San Diego (7*). |
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08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants took the opener of this series by a 7-5 score last night and I expect them to notch a second straight win over the Mets on Tuesday. While the Mets are still technically in the N.L. playoff hunt, they're facing an uphill battle. With their next nine games coming against either the Giants and Dodgers they likely won't remain in the playoff picture for long. Marcus Stroman takes the ball for New York on Tuesday. While he's pitched well, my concern is that he has lasted at least six innings in just one of his last 10 starts. That's not likely to change here as he pitches on just four days' rest. That leaves plenty of work for a tired Mets bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now for the Giants. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts. Unlike Stroman, he has shown the ability to work deep into games, working six innings in each of his last four starts and six of his last 10 overall. The Giants are a perfect 7-0 when Webb takes the ball at home this season, where he has recorded a stellar 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Behind Webb is a San Francisco bullpen that has converted 24 saves while blowing only six at home this season, combining to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP. Take San Francisco (7*). |
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08-17-21 | Astros -192 v. Royals | 1-3 | Loss | -192 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Astros last night in a disappointing one-run loss but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Tuesday. Despite the loss, the Astros held on to their 2.5-game advantage atop the A.L. West as the second-place A's lost as well. Houston will give the nod to Framber Valdez on Tuesday. He'll be pitching on full rest for a sixth straight turn in the rotation and we've seen signs of encouragement lately. In his most recent outing he struck out eight - his highest total since his third start of the season. Valdez checks in sporting a 3.03 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with the Astros having won four of his six road starts. Behind Valdez is an Astros bullpen that had been performing well prior to last night's shaky performance. It's worth noting that Houston left its better arms in the 'pen in that 7-6 loss. Rookie Daniel Lynch will counter for Kansas City. While the Royals have won his last two starts, he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his most recent start he allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees. In four home starts this season he has posted a 7.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. The Kansas City bullpen has posted a collective 4.25 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 13 saves converted and eight blown at home this season (entering last night's action). Take Houston (5*). |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds throttled the Cubs in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') as they continue to put pressure on the Padres (who lost last night) in the N.L. Wild Card race. I look for Cincinnati to continue its winning ways against the reeling Cubs on Tuesday. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for Chicago. He can't feel great about the team that's left around him although it's not as if he's been doing himself any favors with his recent performance either. Hendricks was lit up for nine earned runs on 11 hits over just four innings in a 17-4 loss to the Brewers last time out. Now he starts in Cincinnati where the Cubs have lost his last four starts. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Cubs bullpen is in absolute shambles right now. They entered last night's game sporting an 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games and then proceeded to give up a whopping 11 earned runs in four innings. Cincinnati will counter for Vladimir Gutierrez. After a shaky stretch in the middle of the season, Gutierrez has once again turned things around, allowing only five earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 1/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the Reds won each of those four games (by a combined 37-11 margin). Gutierrez has faced the Cubs twice this season (both times prior to Chicago's sell-off at the trade deadline) and given up just three earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Reds bullpen certainly hasn't been great this season but does come into this one in relatively good shape having only had to work a combined 26 innings over their last eight games. Arguably their worst reliever, Heath Hembree, labored through 2/3 of an inning last night, allowing five earned runs so he likely won't be available tonight (that's not a bad thing). Take Cincinnati (7*). |
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants -180 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Mets are still technically in the N.L. playoff hunt but with just five wins in their last 17 games and now looking up at two teams in the N.L. East and even further back in the N.L. Wild Card picture, it's highly unlikely we'll see them playing in October. Look for the Giants to add to their misery on Monday. Rich Hill will take the ball for New York. You have to go all the way back to June to find the last time he lasted beyond the fifth inning. He's topped out at four strikeouts in his last five outings. Here, he'll be facing a Giants team that sits 22 games over .500 at home this season, where they average five runs per game. Behind Hill is a Mets bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown. Kevin Gausman has recorded a 3.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the Giants winning six of those games. While his recent results have been a little uneven, his stuff has still been there as he's struck out at least eight in two of his last three starts and in his last two outings, allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings with no home runs given up. The Giants bullpen entered yesterday's game sporting a collective 3.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 22 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (5*). |
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08-16-21 | Padres -126 v. Rockies | 5-6 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres looked awful to start their series in Arizona, dropping three straight games. That all changed yesterday though as Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the lineup and San Diego rolled to an 8-2 victory on the strength of two Tatis home runs. They can't afford to let their foot off the gas here though as their grip on an N.L. Wild Card spot remains loose. The Rockies are of course just playing out the string at this point. They managed to win just one game on their six-game road trip to Houston and San Francisco. Yes, they've been a much better team at home this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to outslug the Padres in this one. Ryan Weathers gets the start for San Diego. He's been awful lately and it all started with an ugly performance against these same Rockies on July 30th. Starting on the road might just be the best thing for him at this point, noting that he has posted a stellar 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work away from home this season. He'll have a short leash as usual on Monday. With this very short price, I think bettors are putting a little too much stock in the struggling Weathers starting. He could very well only make a cameo appearance should things not go his way early in this one. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. He owns a miserable 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts against N.L. West opponents this season including one outing against the Padres in which he was tagged for four earned runs in five innings. With weather conditions favoring the hitters on Monday night at what is already a hitter-friendly ballpark, I expect Senzatela to struggle against a Padres lineup that is downright scary with Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the mix. Of course, even if Senzatela comes up with a solid outing there's little reason to have faith in the Rockies bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this season. Take San Diego (5*). |
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08-16-21 | Astros -148 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros dropped the series finale against the Angels yesterday but that was after winning the first two games. Look for them to bounce back on Monday as they look to solidify their grip on the A.L. West Division lead. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for Houston. While he owns an ugly ERA north of five on the road this season, his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.19. After a rough stretch, he bounced back in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits over five shutout innings against the Rockies. Behind Odorizzi is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Carlos Hernandez will counter for Kansas City. The left-hander has pitched well lately, allowing only two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts. Let's not get too excited though. He has topped out at four strikeouts in three of his last four outings. He's still averaging less than five innings per start which means we'll likely see plenty of the Royals bullpen, which owns a 4.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 13 saves converted and eight blown at home this season. Take Houston (6*). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over New York at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. A letdown wasn't all that surprising after the White Sox beat the Yankees in thrilling fashion in the 'Field of Dreams' game on Thursday. New York got the better of Chicago last night but I look for the White Sox to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He's pitched well in five starts this season, however he has allowed three home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 2/3 innings and will pitch on just four days' rest on Sunday. The White Sox are obviously a tough opponent, noting they entered yesterday's action 19 games over .500 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game. Note that the Yankees bullpen entered last night's game having logged a whopping 34 innings over their last seven games and then proceeded to work another five in a 10-inning affair. While the New York relief corps has held up well, this is not an ideal spot. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He's coming off a stellar eight-inning performance against the Twins, allowing just one earned run. Here, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest. He owns a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. A stark contrast to the Yankees bullpen, the White Sox 'pen has worked among the fewest innings in baseball this season, a total of 369 entering last night's action. They've been at their best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Padres -200 v. Diamondbacks | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. With the Reds breathing down their neck in the N.L. Wild Card race the Padres can ill afford to drop a third straight game to the lowly D'Backs on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will get the nod for San Diego. He's been the Padres most reliable starter lately, allowing two earned runs or less while working at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Over his last three outings he's struck out 23 while walking only five. The last two times Musgrove has faced the D'Backs he's tossed 13 innings of four-hit shutout ball. Behind Musgrove is a Padres bullpen that has fared well against division opponents, entering last night's action sporting a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only six blown. Rookie left-hander Tyler Gilbert will start for the D'Backs. He's worked out of the bullpen over the last few weeks and I wouldn't expect him to last deep into this game on Saturday. Of course, the Arizona bullpen has been awful this season, recording a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only nine saves converted and 11 blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Diego (5*). |
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08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We liked the Astros (understandably) earlier this week at home against the Rockies, cashing with them once in their two-game sweep. Here, I look for them to keep the positive momentum building as they continue to try to fend off the A's atop the A.L. West. Zack Greinke will get the nod for Houston on Friday. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Astros winning seven of his 10 starts. He's faced the Angels twice already this season, allowing just four earned runs in 14 innings with Houston winning both of those games. Behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has already had two days off this week and brings excellent form into this series having recorded a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games. Patrick Sandoval will counter for Los Angeles. He has quietly pitched well this season but has been a little weaker at home, where he has posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the Angels losing four of his seven starts. Since turning in his best outing of the season on July 24th in Minnesota, Sandoval has made two starts, allowing 11 hits and a whopping eight walks in just 10 2/3 innings. The Astros last saw the left-hander last August, tagging him for five earned runs on seven hits over just 2 2/3 innings in an 11-4 rout. The Angels bullpen has pitched better lately but is still an unreliable group, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Note that they'll be playing their fifth game in the last four days on Friday. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -154 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. While the Yankees wrapped up a series win in Kansas City yesterday the White Sox dropped a second straight game against the Twins. Here, I look for Chicago to rebound as it takes part in the 'Field of Dreams Game ' in Iowa. Andrew Heaney will get his third start as a member of the Yankees. The first two haven't gone particularly well as he's been tagged for eight earned runs including five home runs in 10 innings of work. Now he faces a White Sox lineup that loves hitting lefties and should be in a foul mood off yesterday's shutout loss. Note that Heaney has posted a 4.89 ERA in eight road starts this season with that number rising above five in nighttime outings. Given that he averages just a shade over five innings per start, the Yankees bullpen will undoubtedly be pressed into action. Keep in mind, the Yanks haven't had a day off since July 26th so we're talking about an overworked 'pen, a stark contrast to that of the White Sox, which I'll get to in a moment. Lance Lynn had his start pushed back a day for the White Sox. That's not a bad thing as he was going to have to pitch on four days' rest yesterday, a situation he's struggled in this season. Now he gets to pitch on full rest and does so away from home where he has posted a stellar 1.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts this season with the Sox winning seven of those games. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that I've been highlighting for weeks now has logged among the lowest total innings in all of baseball. This is a strong relief corps that should be in great shape down the stretch and I like their chances of taking care of the Yankees here. Take Chicago (5*). |
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08-12-21 | Tigers v. Orioles -136 | 6-4 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers have been playing better baseball lately and have taken the first two games in this series. They're still going nowhere though, as they sit well out of playoff contention. Here, they'll be looking forward to heading home for a six-game homestand and I look for them to fall short in their attempt at wrapping up a series sweep in Baltimore on Thursdsay. Matt Manning is most definitely the weakest link in the Tigers rotation. It doesn't get much worse than a 9.13 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in five road starts this season with the Tigers losing all five of those games. The jury is still out as to whether Manning is capable of being a big league starter as he's topped out at four strikeouts in nine starts this season, recording a disappointing 23:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 42 2/3 innings pitched. With Manning averaging just 4.5 innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers awful bullpen in this one. Detroit's 'pen has posted an ERA well north of five away from home this season and will likely be 'pitching from behind' in this one. John Means has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for the Orioles. He's been outstanding in daytime starts this season, posting a 2.51 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in eight outings. Over his last two trips to the hill he's allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings, posting an 11:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio along the way. That included a start against these same Tigers on July 31st as he gave up only one earned run over six innings in a 5-2 win. The less said about the Orioles bullpen the better but I do expect them to be pitching with a large enough lead that they shouldn't play a major factor in the outcome of this contest. Take Baltimore (5*). |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's put up or shut up time for the Red Sox. They lost the opener of this important three-game series against the team they're looking up at in the A.L. East standings. I expect them to answer back on Wednesday night. Josh Fleming will get the start for the Rays. It could be argued that he's been the weak link in the Rays rotation this season as they've only managed to go 5-5 in his 10 outings (that's telling considering they're 24 games over .500 overall). Fleming has made five road starts with the Rays winning only two of those games as he's posted a 6.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. While the Red Sox have struggled at times against left-handed pitching this season they've never had any trouble with Fleming, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits in just 9 1/3 innings. That's despite the fact that he's yet to make a start here at Fenway Park, where the weather conditions are expected to be favorable for the hitters again on Wednesday night. Nathan Eovaldi counters for Boston. He's been awful over his last two starts but both of those came on the road. He's been a different pitcher here at home where he's posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Sox winning seven of his 13 starts this season. Note that over his last four home outings he has allowed just two earned runs in 29 innings of work. Eovaldi was roughed up by the Rays in his last start against them less than two weeks ago but that was in St. Petersburg. The last time he faced them here in Boston he allowed just one earned run in seven innings in a 9-2 victory back in April. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox bullpen that coughed one up last night but has generally been solid in night games this season, recording a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 28 converted saves and only 10 blown. Boston's relief corps has converted 16 of 23 save opportunities at home this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-11-21 | White Sox -160 v. Twins | 0-1 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Expect the White Sox to bounce back after they saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last night. Impressive rookie Griffin Jax kept the Twins in the game long enough for them to rally for a 4-3 victory on Tuesday but here, they aren't likely to be so fortunate with another rookie, Bailey Ober, taking the ball. Ober will be facing the White Sox for the fifth time this season. He's pitched well in just one of his previous four outings against them. In the other three starts he's been tagged for 14 hits and 12 earned runs including six home runs in only 12 1/3 innings of work. With Ober averaging just 4.5 innings per start at home this season, the White Sox should see plenty of a Twins bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with only 12 saves converted and eight blown at home this season. We're talking about an overworked relief corps that hasn't had a day off in more than a week. Chicago will counter with Lance Lynn. The Sox have won five of his last six starts with the lone loss coming against these same Twins. Keep in mind, he did pitch well in that start against Minnesota and has generally owned the Twins this season, allowing only four earned runs in 24 innings of work. Lynn checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts this season with Chicago winning five of those games. Better still, he has posted a sparkling 1.38 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in nine daytime starts with Chicago winning six of those contests. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has recorded a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown in day games this season. Take Chicago (5*). |
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08-10-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -203 | 5-4 | Loss | -203 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being asked to pay a steep price to back the Mariners on Tuesday but I believe it could be even higher. It's crunch time for Seattle coming off a tough series in the Bronx and it can ill afford to drop games against the lowly Rangers this week if it wants to stay in the A.L. playoff picture. I like the M's to at the very least get this series off to a winning start on Tuesday. Kolby Allard will take the ball for the Rangers. The Rangers have won just once in his 12 starts this season. He checks in sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road. In two previous starts against the Mariners this season he's been tagged for eight earned runs, including three home runs, in just seven innings of work. Allard isn't likely to get much help from the Rangers bullpen either. They've posted a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just six saves converted and six blown on the road this season. Rookie Logan Gilbert will counter for Seattle. While his personal results have been mixed, the Mariners have gone 11-3 in his 14 starts and I like the fact that he's posted an impressive 1.10 WHIP on the season. He labored through 5 2/3 innings against the Rangers in Texas last week but the Mariners still managed to win that game 9-5. Here, he catches Texas having gone 30 games under .500 on the road, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 runs per game. Gilbert generally has a short leash so we could see plenty from the Mariners bullpen in this one and that's not a bad thing. Their relief corps has posted a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only seven blown here at home this season. Take Seattle (4*). |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros -168 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros will be happy to face a team other than the Minnesota Twins after a rocky four-game series from Thursday-Sunday. Following an off day on Monday, I look for Houston to get back on track as it welcomes the Rockies for the opener of a quick two-game set on Tuesday. Jon Gray will take the ball for Colorado. He's been a much better pitcher at home compared to on the road this season, noting that he has posted a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in nine outings away from home with the Rockies winning only two of those games. It's also worth mentioning that he'll be making his fourth start since July 25th as each of his last two starts were made on just four days' rest. He allowed eight hits in 6 2/3 innings last time out, his highest hit total allowed since back on May 17th. Gray did handle the Astros in his lone previous start against them this season but that came at home back in April, at a time when Houston was struggling at the plate having scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games. With Gray averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty of a bad Rockies bullpen that owns a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Jake Odorizzi will counter for Houston. He hasn't pitched well lately, there's no denying that. He's also faced a tough slate of starts lately, with three of his last four outings coming on the road against the White Sox, Mariners and Dodgers. In his last two home starts he's posted a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowed five earned runs without giving up a single home run in 10 2/3 innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Rockies for the first time in his career on Tuesday. Behind Odorizzi is a solid Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. That relief corps has been lights out lately, recording a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take Houston (6*). |
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08-08-21 | Twins v. Astros -175 | 7-5 | Loss | -175 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. After inexplicably dropping the first two games in this series, the Astros cruised to a 4-0 victory last night. I expect them to keep that positive momentum building with another win on Sunday afternoon. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the visiting Twins. He's been awful on the road this season, recording a 5.95 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with the Twins losing eight of his 12 starts. Last time out he was tagged for five earned runs over five innings in Cincinnati but was bailed out by his offense against a bad Reds bullpen. He isn't likely to be so fortunate here. Behind Maeda is a weak Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP away from home this season. Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has to be feeling pretty good about himself after tossing 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers (on the road no less) last time out. Now he's back at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. Better still, he's posted a 2.85 ERA in seven daytime outings with the Astros winning four of those games. Houston's bullpen has been terrific lately and has been at its best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take Houston (6*). |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies -162 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and with their ace on the hill on Sunday afternoon, I look for them to complete the sweep of the reeling Mets. New York has lost eight of its last 10 games overall but still sits just 1.5 games back of the division-leading Phillies entering Sunday's series-finale. So this is obviously not a time for the Phils to let their guard down despite having posted six straight victories. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. He's in an absolutely miserable spot here as he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. He has clearly hit the wall over the last month or so, allowing a whopping 20 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 15 innings. Worst of all, he's been tagged for seven home runs over his last three outings. It all adds up to trouble as he faces a red hot Phillies lineup that has already seen him twice this season. Behind Walker is a Mets bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 22nd and has struggled on the road all season, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He remains one of the most undervalued starters in baseball as far as I'm concerned. All he's done at home is post a 2.22 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with the Phillies winning eight of his 13 starts. Better still, he has posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in eight daytime outings with the Phillies winning six of those contests. The Phillies bullpen has had its share of issues this season but has held up well lately, recording four saves while blowing only one over their last eight games. Take Philadelphia (7*). |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians -133 | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Indians in the opener of this series last night and we'll come right back with them on Saturday as well. The Tigers will hand the ball to Tyler Anderson who is by no means a strong candidate to work deep into this ball game. He's yet to last beyond the fourth inning in any of his six starts this season. That spells trouble as the Detroit bullpen has not been good on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown. Eli Morgan gets the nod for Cleveland. He looked like a completely different pitcher last time out, lasting a career-high six innings, allowing just five hits and two earned runs while striking out nine and walking one against a quality Blue Jays lineup. Morgan has been consistent if nothing else, working at least five innings and allowing three earned runs or less in four straight starts. Behind Morgan is an Indians bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 10 saves converted and five blown at home this season. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -190 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. It was a tough roll of the dice with the Astros last night as they fell by a 5-4 score in extra innings, dropping their second straight game against the lowly Twins, at home no less. I do expect them to bounce back on Saturday. To say that Houston has had Twins starter Michael Pineda's number would be an understatement. The Astros last three games against the right-hander have gone their way by scores of 10-4, 11-0 and 14-3 as they plated 12 earned runs over 14 1/3 innings. Note that the Twins have won just two of Pineda's five road starts this season as he's posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's averaging less than five innings per start away from home which opens the door for plenty of work from a Minnesota bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season. Luis Garcia will get the start for Houston. He'll be happy to be back home after making his last two starts on the road (he struggled in starts in Seattle and San Francisco). Note that he's been a different pitcher here in Houston, recording a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Astros winning six of his nine outings. Behind Garcia is an Astros bullpen that tossed three hitless innings before dropping the game in extras last night. Houston relievers have posted a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action), converting 11 saves while blowing five. Take Houston (5*). |
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08-07-21 | White Sox -187 v. Cubs | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox over the Cubs at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox survived in extra innings yesterday after blowing a late 4-1 lead against the Cubs. Their bullpen did cough another one up but I still expect good things from this relief corps, which has logged some of the fewest innings in all of baseball. Carlos Rodon gets the start for the White Sox. While he has struggled in his last couple of outings, he has been terrific in general on the road this season, recording a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with the Sox winning six of his 10 starts. While his most recent start was made on just four days' rest, here he gets to take the ball on seven days' rest. Adbert Alzolay will counter for the Cubs. He has seemingly hit the wall, having allowed 17 earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 26 innings of work. Given he averages just five innings per start at home this season we should see plenty of a suddenly reeling Cubs bullpen that has been overworked lately and owns a collective ERA around seven over their last seven games. Take the White Sox (5*). |
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08-06-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -190 | 4-3 | Loss | -190 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Dodgers over the Angels at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I feel we're being asked to lay a very reasonable price with the Dodgers in this one. The Angels are coming off a series in win Texas, including a 5-0 victory yesterday but I'm not convinced they'll be able to keep it rolling at Chavez Ravine on Friday night. Patrick Sandoval takes the ball for the Angels. He's pitched about as well as you could expect over his last four starts but the Angels still managed to win just one of those games. He comes off a start in which he issued six walks and while he hasn't allowed a single home run in his last two starts, it's worth noting that he's yet to go three consecutive starts without giving up a long ball this season. The Dodgers had little trouble against Sandoval in two games against him last season and I'm confident they can get to him here as well. David Price will counter for the Dodgers. He labored through his last two starts but as is often the case at this stage of his career, he'll have a short leash on Friday night. It's worth noting that he has posted a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in five home starts this season. The Dodgers bullpen got a much needed day off on Thursday and will have all hands on deck should it be called upon early in Friday's contest. The Dodgers are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, with Mookie Betts back healthy and Max Scherzer on board to bolster their starting rotation. Look for this confident bunch to take out their Los Angeles' rivals from Anaheim on Friday night. Take the Dodgers (5*). |
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08-06-21 | Twins v. Astros -189 | 5-4 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Astros were a no-show last night as they dropped a 5-3 decision to the Twins. Perhaps the letdown was to be expected as they were coming off a long road trip that included stops against the division-rival Mariners and two of baseball's best teams in the Giants and Dodgers. Here, I look for Houston to bounce back and while we're dealing with a high price, I believe it could be even higher. Bailey Ober will get the start for Minnesota. He's pitched reasonably well but isn't a strong candidate to work deep into the ball game, averaging just a shade over four innings per start on the road this season. That means we should see plenty of the Twins bullpen, which entered last night's action sporting a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. Worse still, they've recorded a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in night games this season. Zack Greinke will counter for Houston. He was awful in his most recent start, allowing a whopping four home runs in a loss to the Giants in San Francisco. He turned in a similarly poor performance earlier this season, giving up three home runs in a 7-2 loss against Detroit back in early April. He followed that up with one of his best outings of the season as he tossed eight shutout innings on the road against the Mariners. Greinke has posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 16 nighttime starts this season with the Astros winning 10 of those games. The Astros bullpen kept the Twins offense in check last night, entering that game with a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. Take Houston (5*). |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians did not enjoy a great road trip by any stretch of the imagination as they fell below the .500 mark with three consecutive losses in Toronto to close it out. I do look for them to get back in the win column on Friday, however, as they welcome the Detroit Tigers. Detroit just wrapped up a series win at home against the Red Sox yesterday, winning in blowout fashion in the series-finale. The Tigers will be hard-pressed to repeat that effort on Friday though as they hit the road where they check in 12 games under .500 on the season. Matt Manning will get another turn in the rotation for Detroit. He got lit up for nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the Tribe back in late June. While he's been marginally better since then, that's not saying much. Manning has topped out at four strikeouts while issuing multiple walks in five of eight big league starts. He checks in sporting an ugly 8.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four road starts with the Tigers losing all four of those games. Behind Manning is a Tigers bullpen that has not performed well on the road this season, recording a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown. Cal Quantrill will counter for Cleveland. He got off to a terrible start this season but has since righted the ship, allowing just three earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings of work. He's made seven home starts this season and has held up well, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Indians bullpen has been terrific at home this season, posting a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only five blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -150 v. Cubs | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox over the Cubs at 2:20 pm et on Friday. The White Sox ended their homestand with a thud, suffering back-to-back losses to the lowly Royals. They'll look to stop the bleeding as they make the short trip across town to face the Cubs on Friday afternoon. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the White Sox. He's allowed exactly seven earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Cubs but hasn't faced them in over two years and will obviously face a much different looking lineup here after the Cubs dealt away their core prior to the trade deadline. Lynn is having a tremendous season and owns a 2.39 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in seven road starts. He's in fine form right now, having issued a grand total of just two walks while striking out 17 over his last three outings, covering a span of 18 innings. The White Sox bullpen has a lot of upside right now as they entered last night's game having logged just 342 innings this season. They've been at their best on the road, recording a 3.80 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Kyle Hendricks will counter for the Cubs. He's coming off a terrific start against the Nationals but that start came on the road. He's been fairly inconsistent here at home, posting a 4.37 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at Wrigley Field. Note that he's topped out at four strikeouts in his last five starts overall. The wheels have come off for the Cubs bullpen lately and that certainly has something to do with departures prior to the trade deadline. They entered yesterday's game sporting an ugly 7.77 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the White Sox (6*). |
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08-05-21 | Red Sox -125 v. Tigers | 1-8 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Red Sox certainly haven't been playing their best baseball lately but I like the way this situation sets up for them on getaway day on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Boston will hand the ball to Martin Perez. While he's no Cy Young contender, he has been at his best in daytime starts this season, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with the Red Sox winning five of his seven outings. Perhaps better still, he has recorded a 3.40 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine road starts with the Sox winning five of those contests. Given the fact that Perez averages less than five innings per start this season he's likely to have a fairly short leash again here. That's not a big concern as the Red Sox bullpen has been solid on the road, posting a collective 3.77 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only eight blown (entering yesterday's action). Tarik Skubal has seemingly hit the wall for the Tigers as he's sailed past the 100-inning mark in just his second (and first full) big league season. Over his last two outings he has allowed nine earned runs and a whopping six home runs in just 10 2/3 innings of work. Note that Detroit has won just five of his 11 home starts this season. Skubal will be making his fourth start since July 20th with two of those outings coming on just four days' rest. Detroit's bullpen has struggled in day games all season, recording a collective 4.83 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 12 saves converted and eight blown. Take Boston (7*). |
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08-04-21 | Giants -172 v. Diamondbacks | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants fell to the lowly D'Backs last night but I believe Kevin Gausman is the right guy to have on the hill to get back in the win column on Wednesday. Gausman has actually struggled over his last few outings. Arizona would appear to be the perfect opponent to get back on track against, however, noting that the D'Backs haven't been able to figure the right-hander out since getting to him in his first career start against them back in 2018. In five starts against the Snakes since, Gausman has allowed a grand total of six earned runs on 19 hits over 32 innings of work. The Giants have won each of his last four starts against Arizona by a combined 28-9 margin. Note that Gausman's recent struggles have come at home. On the road he checks in with a sparkling 1.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with the Giants having won eight of his 12 starts. Behind Gausman is a San Francisco bullpen that has posted a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season. The Giants 'pen has converted 15 saves while blowing only seven against division opponents. Zac Gallen will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's coming off a fine outing against the Dodgers but now pitches on just four days' rest. The last time did that was on July 2nd, when he faced these same Giants and lasted only two innings in an 11-4 home loss. Arizona has won just once in Gallen's six home starts this season. The Giants will be seeing Gallen for the sixth time since the start of last season and have certainly had his number, scoring 11 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings in their last three looks at him. Even if the Giants somehow don't get to Gallen they should be able to tee off on a bad D'Backs bullpen that owns a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only nine saves converted and 10 blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (7*). |
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08-04-21 | Mariners v. Rays -153 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series with last night's setback coming in truly disappointing fashion as they actually outhit the Mariners but committed a couple of critical errors in the field to drop a 4-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back and salvage the series-finale on getaway day. Seattle will hand the ball to rookie Logan Gilbert. The Mariners have incredibly won each of Gilbert's last 11 outings but he has shown signs of tiring lately, allowing 15 hits and nine earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work over his last three outings. After facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi last night, the Rays will welcome the opportunity to take on the right-handed Gilbert on Wednesday, noting that they average 5.5 runs per game (0.5 runs per game above their season average) against righties this season. I've talked thorughout this series about the advantage the Rays should have in the later innings with the Mariners bullpen entering last night's action sporting a 4.90 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 14 saves converted but 12 blown on the road this season. By contrast, Tampa's 'pen has recorded a collective 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Josh Fleming gets the nod for the Rays in a starting role. He's been terrific at home this season, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts. Perhaps we'll finally see Tampa's offense wake up here, noting that it has produced a whopping 17 runs in Fleming's last two outings. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds -205 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Minnesota at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. |
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08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Rays last night (but won with the first five innings 'over') as they fell behind early and could never recover in an eventual 8-2 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as they look to bounce back. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He has labored through his last four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in only 21 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season with the Mariners losing seven of those games. While he does average 5.9 innings per start on the road, he's lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last four outings. That spells trouble here as the Mariners bullpen entered last night's action with a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 14 saves converted and 12 blown on the road this season. Luis Patino will counter for Tampa Bay. He has to be feeling pretty good about himself after lasting a career-high six shutout innings in a 14-0 rout of the Yankees in his most recent start. Patino has made three home starts this season and has looked comfortable, posting a 0.71 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 12 2/3 innings of work. Patino isn't a strong candidate to work deep into the game again on Tuesday (he averages well below five innings per start this season) but that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been terrific here at home, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown this season. Finally, I think it's worth noting that the Rays rested two of their best players in last night's series-opener in Austin Meadows and Wander Franco. Meadows is 5-for-15 with three extra-base hits including two home runs and five RBI over his last four games while Franco has really been heating up, going 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits and four RBI over his last three contests. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays -153 | 8-2 | Loss | -153 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 7:10 pm et on Monday. This one sets up well for the Rays as they look to keep rolling on their current homestand. The Mariners will hand the ball to Chris Flexen on Monday. He's been a completely different pitcher on the road this season where he has posted a 5.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Given that he averages just 5.4 innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty from the Mariners bullpen, which has recorded a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 14 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). While I don't love the setup for Rays starter Michael Wacha in this one, i do expect him to have a short leash as usual and behind him is a tremendous Rays bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. On a positive note for Wacha, he has been terrific at Tropicana Field this season, posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with the Rays having won five of his six starts. Take Tampa Bay (5*). |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Minnesota at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals stumbled last night, losing 8-1 against the Twins (we won with the 'over'). I expect them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Twins. He owns a 4.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in four road starts this season. Note that he's averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start away from home which is a concern given the Twins bullpen has posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. St. Louis will hand the ball to veteran Adam Wainwright. He's been locked in lately, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Wainwright has been rock solid at home, recording a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts with the Cards winning seven of those. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest in this one that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did, he allowed just one earned run over seven innings. The Cards bullpen has struggled at times this season but has shown positive signs lately, entering last night's game sporting a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over their last seven contests. They've converted 19 saves while blowing only three at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-31-21 | Rockies v. Padres -190 | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a fairly high price to back the Padres in this bounce-back spot on Saturday but I feel the line could be even higher. German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. He has generally struggled against the Padres over the course of his career, with a 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, however he did toss seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory here at Petco Park the last time he faced them on July 10th. With that being said, he brings poor form into this start, having allowed seven earned runs on 15 hits over just 12 1/3 innings in his last two outings and now will have to pitch on just four days' rest. The Rockies have won just two of his eight road starts this season. There's no question he could be carrying some disappointment as well having not been traded to a contending team prior to the trade deadline. Marquez averages six innings per start on the road this season and behind him is a Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just seven saves converted and eight blown away from home. Colorado hasn't enjoyed an off day since July 22nd. Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been pitching well but has also made three of his last four starts on the road. Here at home he owns a 2.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts this season with the Padres winning 10 of those. The last time he faced the Rockies at home he tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way. Note that Darvish will be pitching on a full five days' rest. The Padres bullpen has been overworked this season but did enjoy an off day earlier this week and has still held up well, recording a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown at home this season. Take San Diego (5*). |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels -200 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Angels continue to flirt with the .500 mark so all is not lost in this 2021 season. I like their chances of bouncing back from last night's blowout loss at the hands of the Rockies. Chi Chi Gonzalez will take the ball for the Rockies. While Colorado did win his last start against the Dodgers, here he'll be pitching on just four days' rest, noting that he has posted a 6.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with the Rockies winning just three of his nine road starts this season. Behind Gonzalez is a Colorado bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just seven saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Andrew Heaney will counter for the Angels. He's coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing just two earned runs over seven innings in Minnesota last time out. He'll have the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. Note that the Rockies have never really been able to figure Heaney out, scoring just seven earned runs off of him in 20 1/3 innings in three previous games against him. The Angels bullpen has converted 16 saves while blowing 10 in night games this season and has converted four of five save opportunities in Interleague play. Take Los Angeles (5*). |
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07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've been picking on the D'Backs lately, fading them in consecutive games over the weekend but only managing to earn a 1-1 split. Here, I'll go back to the well again as we go against Arizona when it opens a series in Texas on Tuesday night. Of course the Rangers haven't won a game since July 9th but they've also played their last 10 on the road so it's not as if many wins were to be expected as they've generally been awful away from home. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the Snakes. He'll get a third straight turn in the rotation out of necessity only as he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his last two outings he's allowed 11 hits and six earned runs in just nine innings of work. With Widener unlikely to work deep into the game we should see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that has really struggled on the road this season, converting fewer saves than they've blown. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been at his best here at home this season, with one of the strongest home-road dichotomies we've seen from any starter in baseball. In his last two home outings he has allowed just six hits and three earned runs in 10 innings of work. While Dunning also isn't a strong candidate to last deep into the game, the Rangers bullpen has actually been terrific at home this season. While both of these teams are simply playing out the string in the dog days of Summer, I like the Rangers to secure the victory on Tuesday night. Take Texas (10*). |
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07-26-21 | Astros -163 v. Mariners | 8-11 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners just took three of four games from the A's but I look for them to get tripped up in their series-opener against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia gets the call for Houston. He's pitched well on the road this season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Here, he'll be starting on a full five days' rest after tossing six shutout innings against the Indians last time out. Garcia was a hard-luck loser against the Mariners earlier this season, allowing just one earned run over five innings in a 1-0 loss. The Astros bullpen is one of the freshest in baseball and checks in sporting a collective 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over their last seven games. Darren McCaughan will counter for Seattle. He just had an extended relief outing against Colorado five days ago. While he gave up just one earned run over five innings in that game, he didn't strike out a single batter. In 7 2/3 big league innings going back to Spring Training he's struck out only two hitters. The Mariners haven't had a day off since July 19th and their bullpen has been stretched having worked 31 innings over their last seven games. They've converted 15 saves while blowing 12 in night games this season. Take Houston (5*). |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins -159 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Twins are coming off a series loss against the Angels but the Tigers just got swept by the Royals so both teams are struggling entering Monday's series-opener in Minnesota. I like the Twins to get back on track here. Matt Manning will get another turn in the rotation despite his struggles. He has posted an ugly 8.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three road starts, with the Tigers losing all three of those games. That included a five-inning outing against these same Twins in which Manning allowed two earned runs on two hits while striking out only three and walking three. I look for Minnesota to improve on those numbers here. The Tigers bullpen has been dreadful on the road this season, posting a collective 6.47 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and eight blown. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Twins. He's been at his best here at home this season posting a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Tigers have never really been able to figure him out, going 3-6 all-time against him including four losses in their last five tries. Pineda is coming off a confidence-building start against the White Sox in which he gave up just one earned run on four hits over five innings. The Twins bullpen has only been forced to work 21 2/3 innings over the last seven games and has converted 12 saves while blowing seven here at home this season. Take Minnesota (6*). |
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07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Reds have reeled off three straight wins but I look for their brief winning streak to come to an end on Monday night in Chicago. Wade Miley will take the ball for Cincinnati. He'll be making his third start of the season against Chicago and while he's allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings it's not as if he's been dominant, giving up 15 hits while striking out only six. He also faced the Cubs once last season and didn't make it through the second inning, allowing five earned runs before exiting. Keep in mind, the Cubs have been a better offensive club both against left-handers and at home this season. The Reds bullpen has posted a collective 4.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Worse still, they've recorded a 5.61 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in night games. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He has righted the ship after a rocky start to the season, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has posted a respectable 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season with the Cubs winning six of his 10 starts. Behind Hendricks is an excellent Cubs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-25-21 | A's -124 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I like the A's to answer back and earn a split against the Mariners in Seattle on Sunday. Cole Irvin takes the ball for Oakland. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He's also been solid in daytime starts, recording a 3.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. While he did struggle in his lone previous start against the Mariners this season that was his second consecutive start pitching on just four days' rest. Here, he takes the hill on a full five days' rest. The A's bullpen has posted a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, better numbers than their 11:10 save conversion rate would indicate. Over their last seven games they've been terrific, recording a 2.04 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He's generally been awful at home, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Against division opponents he has recorded a 5.68 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with the Mariners dropping three of his four starts this season. The A's offense has been better both on the road and against left-handed pitching. I won't knock the Mariners bullpen as that relief corps has been solid this season. However, I will point to the fact that they've been overworked lately, working over 30 innings in the last seven games. Take Oakland (8*). |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants -169 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. While I don't like the 'avoid the sweep' angle when it comes to baseball and I know that the Giants will be an extremely popular play on Sunday afternoon, I believe the price is reasonable and we should see San Francisco avoid the sweep at the hands of the Pirates on Sunday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to J.T. Brubaker. The wheels have fallen off for the right-hander lately as he has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings over his last three starts. He hasn't performed well on the road this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with the Pirates losing eight of his nine starts. The Giants have yet to face Brubaker but considering they've been a better offensive club both at home and against right-handed pitching this season, I expect them to have a solid afternoon at the plate. Behind Brubaker is a Pirates bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.11 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Interestingly, they've managed to record just six saves while blowing seven in day games. Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. He has recorded a 3.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the Giants winning six of his nine home starts this season. Wood has faced the Pirates once this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 4-1 victory in Pittsburgh back in May. Note that the Buccos have been a worse offensive team both on the road and against left-handed pitching. The Giants bullpen has been roughed up a bit lately but still owns a collective 3.28 ERA and 1.1 WHIP at home this season with 18 saves converted and only four blown. Take San Francisco (6*). |
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07-25-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -160 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. Let's try this again shall we? We lost with the Cubs yesterday as they blew a 2-0 lead in an eventual 7-3 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday. Caleb Smith takes the ball for the D'Backs. While he's been solid at home (we actually won with him in his last start earlier this week) he's been awful on the road, posting a 9.64 ERA and 2.07 WHIP. Behind Smith is a weak Snakes bullpen that owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown on the road this season. Trevor Williams has also shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season, pitching far better here at Wrigley Field, recording a 3.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with the Cubs winning all five of his home starts. He'll be starting on just four days' of rest here but that's not a big concern considering he had been on the I.L. since May previously. The Cubs bullpen has generally been solid at home, posting a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown. Take Chicago (6*). |
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07-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -162 | 4-3 | Loss | -162 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston first five innings over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series and while I do like them to pick up a third win in a row on Saturday, I like the 'first five innings' play even better. Jameson Taillon will face the Red Sox for his second straight turn in the rotation. He pitched well against them last Sunday night, tossing 5 1/3 shutout innings. However, that was at home. He has posted an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven road starts, averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start. With the Red Sox getting their third look at Taillon this season, I look for them to have early success on Saturday, noting that they have a higher scoring average both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He struggled in his last start prior to the All-Star break but that was his second straight outing on just four days' rest. Here, he'll be pitching on six days' rest. While the Red Sox fell short 3-1 in Eovaldi's outing against the Yankees last week, he actually pitched well, giving up only one earned run on two hits over five innings. Eovaldi owns a 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 1.19 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six starts against A.L. East opponents this season. Take Boston first five innings (6*). |
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07-24-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -149 | 7-3 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Cubs opened this series with a blowout win yesterday afternoon and I look for them to pick up rare consecutive victories on Saturday afternoon. Merrill Kelly will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's been generally awful on the road this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 10 starts with Arizona losing 10 of those games. Chicago will be getting its second look at him in less than a week on Saturday after scoring four earned runs in eight innings against him last Friday. That was in Arizona though. The last time the Cubs faced Kelly here at Wrigley Field they scored three earned runs on six hits over 3 2/3 innings back in 2019. It's not as if the D'Backs have gotten better since then. They check into this game 11-38 on the road this season. With Kelly averaging just 5.4 innings per start on the road this season we're likely to see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen which has recorded a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown on the road this season. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. He's been sharp in two home starts this season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Cubs winning both of those games. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest here but I'm not overly concerned as he worked just four innings in his most recent start. In two previous starts on four days' rest this season he has allowed only three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Behind Mills is a Cubs bullpen that has posted a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three saves blown at home this season. Take Chicago (6*). |
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07-23-21 | Tigers +112 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
American League F5 Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Tigers are red hot right now and I like them to at least get off to a strong start against the Royals on Friday night in Kansas City. Former Royal Wily Peralta has been a pleasant surprise in the Tigers rotation this season. He checks in sporting a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four road starts. He came out of the All-Star break tossing seven shutout innings against the Twins last time out. With opponents hitting sub-.200 against him this season, I like his chances of keeping the Royals lukewarm bats at bay on Friday night. What I don't want is any part of the Tigers bullpen on the road, where they've posted a collective 6.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown this season. While their bullpen was forced to work extended innings in yesterday's 7-5 win over the Rangers, the Royals 'pen was idle. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He's generally been awful this season, failing to even last five innings in any of his last five starts. In four home outings he has recorded a 4.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that over his last four starts he has been tagged for a whopping 11 home runs in 17 innings of work. The Tigers have seen Bubic twice since last September, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits off of him over 9 2/3 innings. Take Detroit first five innings (10*). |
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07-22-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -164 | 5-3 | Loss | -164 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have gone back and forth in this series with the Giants taking two of the first three games. Here, I look for the Dodgers to salvage a series split behind another strong outing from Walker Buehler. Anthony DeSclafani will get the call for the Giants. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm pretty high on DeSclafani. However, he's not in an ideal spot here, starting on just four days' rest against a Dodgers club that has absolutely owned him. There were some red flags in his most recent start as he struck out only four (his lowest K total since June 3rd) and also allowed two home runs, only the second time he had given up two or more long balls in a game this season but those two occurrences have come in his last four starts. The Dodgers will be getting their fourth look at DeSclafani this season having already scored 15 earned runs on 19 hits over just 12 1/3 innings. Los Angeles is 7-2 all-time against the right-hander. Walker Buehler will counter for the Dodgers. The Giants have never really been able to figure him out, most recently facing him three times already this season, managing just two earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. In fact, Los Angeles has won seven of Buehler's previous eight career starts against San Francisco. He checks in sporting a terrific 2.31 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 home starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. He's been at his absolute best against N.L. West opponents, recording a 1.64 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 10 starts. Behind Buehler is a Dodgers bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. While the Giants 'pen has posted solid overall numbers, I'm always concerned about their poor save conversion rate on the road. Entering last night's game they had converted 15 saves while blowing 12 away from home. Take Los Angeles (6*). |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins took the opener of this series but the White Sox have answered back with consecutive wins since and I look for them to take Wednesday's contest as well. Michael Pineda will make his second start since returning from the I.L. His first actually came against these same White Sox as we was tagged for 12 hits and five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-1 home loss on July 7th. Since last season, the Sox have seen Pineda three times, scoring 10 earned runs on 22 hits over 16 2/3 innings. Pineda recorded just 15 strikeouts in those three outings. Note that Pineda checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three road starts this season. Worse still, he has posted a 5.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in three nighttime starts. Behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 10 saves converted and six blown at night this season. Keep in mind, this is a Minnesota team that has gone 18-30 on the road this season. Chicago will counter with Dylan Cease. He labored through his last start against the Twins on July 5th but that was in Minnesota. He's been a completely different pitcher here at home, posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with the White Sox winning seven of his nine starts. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest but that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did it, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Tigers on June 6th, with that start also coming here at home. After struggling in his first two career starts against Minnesota, Cease has generally sorted it out, recording 26 strikeouts while posting a 3-1 team record in his last four outings against the Twins, covering a span of 21 innings. The White Sox bullpen has been outstanding in division games this season, posting a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only six blown. Their relief corps is among the freshest in baseball, having entered last night's action logging just 290 2/3 innings. For context, some other bullpens have already topped the 400-inning mark. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -161 | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals got the better of the Brewers in yesterday's series-opener but I like Milwaukee to answer back on Wednesday afternoon. Brad Keller gets the nod for the visiting Royals. He's been quite simply one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season, checking in with a 5.03 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in 10 road starts, with Kansas City losing six of those games. His ERA climbs to 5.94 to go along with a 1.85 WHIP in 10 daytime outings. This will be the Brewers third look at Keller since last season having had little trouble against him previously, scoring eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Behind Keller is a weak Royals bullpen that has posted a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only eight saves converted and six blown on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). Eric Lauer will start for the Brewers after getting moved back a day due to a fingernail issue. I don't expect him to be any worse for wear. Note that he's quietly been one of the Brewers best starters this season and particularly of late as he's recorded a 0.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his last three outings. In three daytime starts he has posted a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll have the advantage of facing the Royals for the first time, noting that they're been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 4.09 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only six blown (entering yesterday's action). Take Milwaukee (6*) |
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07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's as they look to close out a quick two-game sweep of the Angels on Tuesday afternoon. Jose Suarez will get his third start of the season for the Angels as he takes a second consecutive turn in the rotation. After struggling mightily at the big league level the last two seasons, Suarez has been serviceable this year, but we're talking about a very small sample size. Most concerning to me is his 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through eight innings of work. The Angels pretty much know what they're going to get from Suarez here - likely 4-5 innings. That leaves the bulk of the game in the hands of a poor Angels bullpen that has posted a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown in day games this season. Last night the Los Angeles relief corps was charged with all four earned runs in just two innings of work in a 4-1 loss. Rookie James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on, checking in with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings. Note that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Here at home he owns an incredible 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four starts. In six daytime outings he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Here, he'll be making his second start against the Angels this season but I'm not overly concerned as he's fared reasonably well when facing the same team multiple times this season. Kaprielian is averaging an impressive 6.5 innings per start at home this season so perhaps we won't need a lot of help from the A's bullpen. However, it's certainly worth noting that the A's 'pen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 3.78 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Here at home, Oakland's relief corps has converted 14 saves while blowing only three. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The D'Backs snapped a four-game losing streak and avoided a sweep at the hands of the Cubs with a 6-4 victory here at home yesterday and I look for them to build off of that success and at least get Monday's game off to a positive start through five innings. Chase De Jong will take the ball for Pittsburgh. We now have a big enough sample size to have a good idea of what we'll get from him on the road, where he has posted a 6.16 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts this season. The D'Backs have never faced De Jong but it is worth noting that they average a higher runs per game average (compared to their overall season average) both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. We'll play the first five innings only as I do respect the Pirates bullpen (despite what we saw from them in yesterday's collapse against the Mets). Note that they've converted seven saves while blowing only two on the road this season and have converted nine without a single blown save in night games. Left-hander Caleb Smith will start for Arizona. Like De Jong against the D'Backs, Smith will be facing the Pirates for the first time in his career. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. Smith has run into some trouble in his last couple of starts (that's an understatement when you consider he was ripped for nine earned runs in a single inning of work against the Dodgers last time out), but has generally pitched well here at home, recording a 3.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts in the desert. We want no part of a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown here at home this season (entering yesterday's action), so we'll play the first five innings only. Take Arizona first five innings (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Padres v. Nationals -104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Padres have gotten the better of the Nationals so far in this series (although we'll have to wait for the conclusion of last night's game prior to this one following the unfortunate events that halted proceedings on Saturday), but I expect the Nats to answer back with their ace Max Scherzer on the hill on Sunday afternoon. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the visiting Padres. He's been good, but certainly not great on the road this season where he owns a 3.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Worse still, he has posted a 4.79 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five daytime starts. While those WHIP numbers are admittedly impressive, he has seen his walks creep up lately, issuing 11 free passes over his last five starts. The Nats have certainly had Musgrove's number over the years, scoring 12 earned runs in 15 previous innings against him. Also note that Musgrove hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three outings and averages just a shade over five innings per start on the road this season. That last note is a concern as the Padres bullpen has been overworked this season - likely to eclipse the 400-inning mark here today. San Diego's relief corps has just 10 converted saves compared to six blown on the road this season. As I mentioned, Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He was lit up by the Padres on July 8th but I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly, noting that he had given up just six earned runs in his last six starts against them. Scherzer has posted a 1.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in eight home starts this season. Right on par, he has recorded a 1.94 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in seven daytime outings. The Washington bullpen has been serviceable here at home, recording a collective 4.27 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners got the better of the Angels in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') but I expect Los Angeles to answer back on Saturday. All-Star Yusei Kikuchi will get the nod for the Mariners. His overall numbers are terrific this season although it is worth noting that he has posted a less than impressive 4.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts with the Mariners losing six of those games. If there's one team that's had his number over the course of his career it's the Angels. In six career outings against them, including one this season, he's posted a 1-5 team record to go along with a 10.22 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. Of course, the Angels have been a significantly better offensive team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Alex Cobb will counter for Los Angeles. He has recorded a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP here at home this season with the Angels winning five of his six starts. While the Angels bullpen has been shaky, the good news is that Cobb averages a shade over six innings per start here at home. He'll be facing a Mariners team that still owns a losing record on the road this season, averaging just 4.3 runs per game. In two starts against Seattle here in 2021, Cobb has allowed just seven hits and five earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, winning the lone outing here at home which actually came against Kikuchi as well back on June 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-16-21 | Padres -131 v. Nationals | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego first five innings over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price to back a Brewers club that has been a little uneven of late but I believe it's warranted. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Vladimir Gutierrez. He'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest and he'll be facing the Brewers for the third time this season. Milwaukee hasn't had a ton of success against him (it dropped both previous meetings) but there are certainly building blocks for success in place as it collected 10 hits, five walks and four earned runs over 13 innings in its two previous looks at the rookie right-hander. While Gutierrez was sharp in his first four big league starts, his last four haven't gone so swimmingly as he's allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits over 21 1/3 innings. That's not to mention his less than impressive 17:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch. Gutierrez averages just 5.5 innings per start this season, meaning we should see plenty of a Reds bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Cincinnati hasn't had an off day since June 23rd so we're talking about an overworked bullpen right now. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He owns a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the Brewers winning five of those games. Unlike Gutierrez, Peralta hasn't had to pitch on four days' rest since May 16th and won't do so here either. The Reds will be seeing Peralta for the fourth time this season but have never really figured him out, managing to score just five earned runs on 10 hits in 15 2/3 innings. The Brewers have come away victorious in five of Peralta's last six starts against Cincinnati. Behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, posting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night's action). Here at home they've converted 15 saves while blowing only six. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
American League Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Indians last night as they snapped their nine-game losing streak in thrilling fashion in a 7-4 walk-off victory to open this series against the Royals. It looked pretty bleak for the first seven innings but a couple of late three-run home runs ended up being the difference. I believe the Indians are set up incredibly well to keep building positive momentum on Friday night, even if the starting pitching matchup doesn't look all that favorable on paper. This one has the chance to really get away from the Royals as the game progresses. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. We've been picking on Keller lately, and for good reason. He's once again in an awful spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a ninth consecutive turn in the rotation. Give him credit for hanging in there for 6 1/3 innings against the Twins last time out but that was at home. He has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in nine road starts this season and hasn't been any better at night, recording a 6.92 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Considering Keller averages less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Triston McKenzie will make a spot start for the Indians on Friday. The less said about him the better, quite honestly. His numbers this season are awful - there's a reason he was banished from the rotation at the start of June. With that being said, he has inexplicably had the Royals number. In three career starts against them he has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking five in 16 innings of work. Unlike Keller, McKenzie has a fresh arm having not started since the second week of June. I like the contrarian angle of backing him here, knowing he'll likely be on a short leash. Behind McKenzie is a solid Indians bullpen that entered last night's action with a collective 2.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with nine converted saves and only one blown here at home this season. While they did blow a save opportunity last night, they entered that contest having converted 14 of 15 save chances in division games this season. Unlike the Royals, who have been playing every day for weeks, the Indians have been afforded three off days in the last two weeks (with a couple of seven-inning double-headers thrown in the mix). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped the first three games in this series but I look for them to get off to a positive start at the very least in Thursday's afternoon affair. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He'll be making his second straight start on a full five days' rest and checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. Better still, Urias has recorded a 3.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven daytime outings this season. While he got lit up in his lone previous start against the Marlins, that came over four years ago and has little bearing on today's matchup. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season. Sandy Alcantara will counter for Miami. His worst start of the season came against the Dodgers back on May 14th as he was chased after allowing eight earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings. He was pitching on four days' rest on that night, and he'll be doing the same here today. Note that he has labored through his last two outings, allowing 11 hits and six runs, four of them earned, while posting a 7:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 11 1/3 innings of work. Here, we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has been quietly efficient at home this season, recording a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Nationals v. Padres -170 | 15-5 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Washington at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres busted out of a 1-4 slide with a 7-4 victory last night and I look for them to build on that performance here. Washington will hand the ball to struggling left-hander Patrick Corbin. He's had a miserable season so far and doesn't figure to turn it around here. Corbin has posted a 6.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road this season with the Nats' winning just two of his seven starts. Behind Corbin is an overworked Washington bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and has posted a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Chris Paddack will start for the Padres. While he hasn't been great this season he has been at his best at night, recording a 4.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with the Padres winning six of his nine starts. He'll have the advantage of facing the Nationals for the first time in his career tonight. The Padres bullpen has been as good as it gets at home this season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Diego (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco over St. Louis at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to answer back and avoid the sweep on Wednesday night. Johan Oviedo gets the call for the Cardinals. He's been absolutely dreadful on the road this season, recording a 6.20 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts with the Cards winning only two of those games. Here, he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Over his last three outings he has allowed 19 hits and 10 earned runs to go along with an ugly 8:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 13 2/3 innings of work. Behind Oviedo is a Cards bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.52 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season with just eight saves converted compared to six blown. Left-hander Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. It's worth noting that the Cards have been a weaker team against southpaw pitchers this season, hitting a collective .222 and averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have had some success against Wood in the past, but have never faced him away from home and haven't had a look at him in nearly two years. Wood checks in with a 4.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, with the Giants winning five of his eight starts. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only three blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Braves -137 v. Pirates | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves are going to be a popular play on Wednesday afternoon but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. Drew Smyly will get the start for Atlanta. While there have been some shaky moments, he has generally exceeded expectations for the Braves so far this season and brings excellent form into this start having posted a sparkling 0.52 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, Smyly will face a Pirates club that averages just 3.3 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. With the Braves playing confidently behind Smyly, winners of each of their last five games with him on the hill, he's the ideal starter to serve as stopper after dropping the first two games in this series. William Crowe starts for Pittsburgh. The Braves have certainly had his number having faced him twice and scored seven earned runs including four home runs in just 7 1/3 innings against him going back to last September. Crowe owns a 5.66 ERA and 1.65 WHIP at home this season and averages only 4.1 innings per start here at PNC Park which might be a problem given the Pirates haven't had a day off since June 21st and their bullpen has already worked seven innings in the first two games of this series. Take Atlanta (9*). |
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07-05-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | 5-3 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco 'first five innings' over St. Louis at 6:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the Giants 5-2 win in Arizona last night. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Giants on the first five innings moneyline as they return home to host the Cardinals. Kwang-Hyun Kim will get the nod for the Cards. He's in a bit of a tough spot here as he makes his fourth consecutive start on four days' rest. He hasn't been missing many bats lately, recording an 8:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing 13 hits in 13 1/3 innings of work over his last three outings. Kim checks in sporting a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in six road starts this season. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid a Cards bullpen that has actually been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while converting 10 saves and blowing only two. The Giants will turn to their ace Kevin Gausman to build off last night's solid outing from Anthony DeSclafani. Gausman has been lights out here at home this season, posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in five starts. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 1.41 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in eight daytime starts this season. On top of that, Gausman will be making his third consecutive start on five days' rest. While Gausman has struggled in a couple of previous starts against the Cardinals, they have little bearing on this contest as he's faced them just once since 2014 and that outing came over four years ago in 2017. Take San Francisco first five innings (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Orioles v. Angels -170 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Baltimore at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Orioles are coming off a surprising sweep of the Astros in Houston but prior to that they had only won once in their last nine games so it's not as if continued success is expected here in Anaheim. We'll fade the O's but in the first five innings only on Friday night. Left-hander Keegan Akin gets another turn in the rotation for the O's. He's been hit hard, recording an 8.68 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in four road starts. There's little reason to anticipate a turnaround here with the Angels a much better offensive club at home, and also against southpaw pitching (they average 5.7 runs per game against LH pitching). Griffin Canning will counter for Los Angeles. While his overall numbers aren't great, he has been respectable at night, posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in seven starts with the Angels winning four of those games. Note that Canning enters this start on six days' rest. The last time he did that he gave up just two earned runs over five innings in Oakland on June 16th. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid an Angels bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only eight saves converted compared to six blown here at home this season. With Canning averaging less than five innings per start my concern is that we would likely see plenty of that poor Halos bullpen. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Giants -143 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -143 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. The Giants could certainly be in for a letdown after a two-game series against the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles but that sort of situation isn't nearly as prevalent in MLB action. Mired in a rare three-game losing streak, I look for San Francisco to break out of its slump on Thursday. Johnny Cueto will take the ball for the Giants. He brings reasonably solid form to the table having posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last three starts. He has struggled on the road this season but has pitched better at night, recording a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five starts with the Giants winning four of those. Cueto has certainly held his own against the D'Backs over the course of his career. In fact, his teams have won six of his last seven starts against them with the lone loss coming in a game where Cueto tossed seven shutout innings. Behind Cueto is a Giants bullpen that has posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He'll be making his fourth straight start on four days' rest. While he has pitched well lately, it's worth noting that he has recorded a 4.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at night this season with Arizona winning just five of his 13 starts. With Kelly averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start we'll likely see plenty from a D'Backs bullpen that owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown at home this season. Kelly will be making his third start against the Giants this season. In their last look at him, the Giants scored four earned runs and chased Kelly after just three innings on June 16th. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's -174 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the A's last night and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again in Thursday's series finale against the Rangers. Dane Dunning gets the nod for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, posting a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with the Rangers losing all seven of his starts to date. He hasn't been much better in day games, recording a 5.14 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in five outings. With Dunning averaging less than five innings per start this season we're likely to see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has struggled on the road, entering last night's action sporting a 5.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with just six saves converted and four blown. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the A's winning eight of those. He brings excellent form into this start having recorded a 2.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his last three outings. The Rangers have never really been able to figure Manaea out as he has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them going back to August of 2017. While the A's bullpen's overall numbers haven't been all that great this season they have been slightly better in day games and do check in having converted 12 saves while blowing only two here at home (entering last night's action). Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's -191 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. While we're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the A's here, I believe it could be even higher. This one sets up well for Oakland as it looks to take the middle game of this three-game set. Kolby Allard will take the ball for Texas. He's pitched well in five starts this season but there's no question the A's have him figured out. Oakland has faced Allard three times since last August, scoring 11 earned runs on 14 hits while walking six times and striking out only eight in 12 1/3 innings. The A's just faced Allard on June 24th and he didn't miss many bats in that one, allowing eight hits and striking out only one over six innings. Behind Allard is a Texas bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP (entering last night's action) with just five saves converted and four blown. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He was a Cy Young contender during last year's Covid-shortened season and while he's not going to find himself in that category again this year, he has certainly pitched well, recording a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven home starts. He brings excellent form into this outing having given up two earned runs or less in four straight starts and will be pitching on five days' rest on Wednesday. Unlike Allard against the A's, Bassitt has held his own against the Rangers, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings against them going back to last September. While the A's bullpen doesn't own terrific numbers across the board, they do know how to close out a game, having converted 12 saves compared to just two blown here at home this season (entering last night's action). Take Oakland (9*). |
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06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -205 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games in this series and I look for them to complete the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Riley Smith will take the ball for the D'Backs. He'll be making his first start since the middle of May after laboring through his first five outings this season. Smith owns a 7.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP and averages just 4.4 innings per start. That spells trouble here as the D'Backs bullpen has been awful, sporting a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with just three saves converted and eight blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for St. Louis. While I'm not particularly high on him right now he has held his own here at home this season, recording a 3.54 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with the Cards coming away victorious in four of his six starts. The St. Louis bullpen entered last night's game having converted 14 saves with just one blown at home this season, posting a collective 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP along the way. Take St. Louis (9*). |
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06-26-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -143 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Pittsburgh at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. We missed a big play on the Cardinals last night as they fell just short in a 5-4 setback against the Pirates - their second straight loss to open this series. I will go back to the well here, however, as the Cards are set up well to bounce back and bring an end to their five-game losing skid. J.T. Brubaker will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He's been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, posting a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with the Pirates losing six of his seven starts. He's averaging right around 5.5 innings per start on the season which means we should see plenty of the Pittsburgh bullpen, which has posted a collective 5.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). The Pirates 'pen has just three converted saves and four blown in day games this season. Note that the Cards will be seeing Brubaker for the third time this season and they've had previous success against him, scoring eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Adam Wainwright has 'turned back the clock' for the Cardinals this season and has been particularly sharp at home where he has posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Cards going 5-4 in his nine outings. He brings excellent form having recorded a 2.25 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his last three trips to the hill. Behind Wainwright is a Cards bullpen that owns a 13:1 converted save rate here at home this season and has posted a collective 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in day games. The Pirates haven't been able to figure out Wainwright lately, facing him three times since August of 2019 and scoring just three earned runs in 19 innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent bounce-back spot for the Cardinals coming off last night's lopsided loss in the series-opener. William Crowe will take the ball for the Pirates. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 6.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts with the Buccos losing three of those games. Worse still, he owns a 10.57 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in four nighttime starts, with Pittsburgh going 1-3 in those contests. The only two times during his young career where an opponent has seen him twice, he's allowed a whopping nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in the second start. The Cardinals get that opportunity here after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 3-0 victory against Crowe and the Pirates back on May 2nd. Behind Crowe is a Pirates bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 5.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (entering last night's action). They haven't been any better at night either, recording a 4.83 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While the Pirates relief corps has done a nice job of converting save opportunities I don't expect them to be in position to do so tonight. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for the Cardinals. He doesn't tend to work deep into games but does own a 2.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five home starts this season with the Cards winning four of those games. At night he has recorded a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six outings. This will be Kim's first start against Pittsburgh this season after allowing four earned runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Pirates last year. Note that the Pirates are just 4-12 against left-handed starters this season, averaging only 3.1 runs per game. The Cardinals bullpen has posted a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action) but those pedestrian numbers are ok as they've converted an incredible 13 of 14 save opportunities here in St. Louis. Against division opponents they're 9-for-10 on save opportunities. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox -188 | 9-3 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox salvaged the finale of a three-game series in Pittsburgh and now return home to open a series with the Mariners on Friday. I like their chances of starting this series on a winning note. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. As well as he has pitched this season, the Mariners are still just 6-7 in his 13 starts. While he's pitched seven innings in each of his last two outings, he actually averages just a shade under six innings per start on the road this season. That leaves the door open for a Mariners bullpen that has posted a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. Of course, it's worth noting that the White Sox have an incredible track record against left-handed starting pitching, having already gone 18-6 against southpaw starters this season. Carlos Rodon is high on the list of A.L. Cy Young contenders, checking in with a 1.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five home starts with the White Sox winning three of those games. He brings excellent form into this start having allowed just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. Mariners hitters have never really been able to figure him out, managing just four earned runs in 24 innings in his four career starts against them, with the Sox winning all four of those games. The White Sox bullpen has been solid here at home this season, posting a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and after struggling a bit in the last week, comes in off a much needed off day yesterday. Take Chicago (9*). |
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06-25-21 | Nationals v. Marlins -144 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Nationals got the better of the Marlins in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Jon Lester will take the ball for the visiting Nationals. He owns a 4.29 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in three road starts this season. The bigger issue is the fact that he averages just five innings per start on the season. That opens the door for an extended night for a Nationals bullpen that hasn't been good on the road this season, posting a collective 4.95 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. He's been lights out here at home this season, recording a 1.89 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, averaging six innings per start. Still, the Fish are just 3-5 in his eight home outings. That's interesting as their bullpen has actually been solid here in Miami, recording a collective 3.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All of that being said, I expect that team record in Lopez starts here at home to even out as long as he continues to pitch well. Take Miami (9*). |
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06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees -179 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Kansas City at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. While we're being asked to pay a heavy tariff to back the Yankees in Thursday's series-finale against the Royals, I believe the price is warranted. Brad Keller will get the nod for the Royals. Kansas City has lost each of his last three starts by a combined 23-5 score. He checks in sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in eight daytime starts this season. The Yankees have faced him once previously, back in the 2018 season, recording a 10-5 victory and chasing him after scoring four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Jameson Taillon will counter for New York. He owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight home starts this season and tossed seven shutout innings in his lone previous career start against the Royals back in 2018. I like the fact that he'll be pitching on five days' rest for the third straight start here. This game could very well come down to the bullpens and in that department I'll give the Yankees the edge as they've recorded a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with six converted saves and only two blown in day games this season. Take New York (9*). |
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06-21-21 | Dodgers v. Padres -124 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. |
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06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams 'avoided the sweep' with narrow victories on Sunday, it's the Cubs that are better-positioned to keep the positive momentum building here at home on Monday night. Cleveland was red hot before dropping two of three games against the lowly Pirates in Pittsburgh. Keep in mind, the Indians have been a weaker team on the road compared to at home, checking in just two games above .500 in the visitors' role this season. Similarly, the Cubs have been much better here at Wrigley Field, where they're an impressive 25-12 on the season. With all of that being said, perhaps it's not surprising that the Indians swept a short two-game series with the Cubs in Cleveland back in May. Aaron Civale will take the ball for the Indians on Monday. He's pitched poorly in three of his last four starts and now finds himself in a difficult situation, starting on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. We're bound to see some regression when it comes to Civale's incredible 10-2 team record in 12 starts this season. And it should come sooner rather than later given the fact that he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 25 innings of work over his last four starts. Behind Civale is a good Indians bullpen, but one that has been better at home than on the road. The Cleveland 'pen entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.99 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Adbert Alzolay will counter for Chicago. Unlike Civale, he won't be dealing with a potentially 'tired arm' here as he hasn't started a game since June 7th due to a blister issue. Alzolay was in a similarly poor situation to Civale in his most recent outing, pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that he struggled in that start against the Padres (who were seeing him for the second time in five days), allowing four earned runs in just three innings. Alzolay has been sharp here at home this season, guiding the Cubs to a 4-2 record in six previous starts while posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has been as good as it gets here at home this season, recording a 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday's action). Expect them to shut the door on any potential comeback attempts by the Indians here tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. After a wild 6-5 contest in favor of the Mariners on Thursday (we lost with the Rays in that walk-off defeat) we saw the M's prevail again by a 5-1 score last night. Here, I look for a well-pitched game from the Rays as they try to get one back in Seattle. Left-hander Josh Fleming returns to the Rays rotation to make the start on Saturday - his first since getting roughed up in Texas back on June 4th. In five starts this season, Fleming has been solid, having posted a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in three of those five contests. He has averaged just shy of six innings per start in three nighttime outings, recording a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Also note that his hard-hit ball percentage hovers right around 35% this season, considerably better than the MLB average. Behind Fleming is a Rays bullpen that did blow Thursday's game but has generally been sharp this season, posting a collective 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 13 converted save opportunities compared to only five blown on the road. Over their last seven games, Rays relievers have combined to record a minuscule 0.60 ERA and 0.57 WHIP. Logan Gilbert will get the nod for the Mariners. He's admittedly been much better over his last three starts after a shaky beginning to his big league career. Interestingly, he's pitched much better in his second start against an opponent than he has in his first. Here, he'll be facing the Rays for the first time. Note that Gilbert will be facing a Rays lineup that has been much better against right-handers this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game against RH starting pitching. Perhaps most concerning is Gilbert's 48.8% hard-hit ball percentage, not to mention his line drive and fly ball percentages which both sit at 30% or higher. All three numbers are considerably worse than the MLB averages. The Mariners bullpen working behind Gilbert has been fairly solid this season but has struggled a bit in night games, recording a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with eight blown saves compared to nine converted. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-19-21 | White Sox v. Astros -121 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Astros last night and I won't hesitate to come back with them again on Saturday. Lance Lynn gets the nod for the visiting White Sox. I'm not going to knock Lynn for anything he's done this season - he's off to a phenomenal start. However, if there's one team that has his number, it's the Astros. They'll be getting their third look at him since last season, having scored a whopping 15 earned runs in just 11 2/3 innings in their last two games against him. Working behind Lynn is a good White Sox bullpen, but one that has been overworked lately, especially when you consider Chicago hasn't had an off day since June 7th. Note that the White Sox 'pen has converted 10 saves but has blown nine in night games this season. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. Much has been made of the White Sox success against left-handed pitching. However, they're averaging a fairly pedestrian 4.5 runs per game in their last eight contests against southpaw starters and they're facing a good one in Framber Valdez on Saturday. Valdez has been terrific since coming off the I.L., recording a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in four starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. He'll have the advantage of having never faced the White Sox here. The Astros bullpen entered last night's game sporting a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with seven converted saves and only three blown here at home this season. Take Houston (9*). |
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06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Astros cruised to a 10-2 win in the opener of this four-game series last night and have now won four games in a row and 12 of their last 16 overall. I look for them to keep rolling on Friday. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He's been terrific this season, there's no denying that. However, here he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start after going seven innings in his last outing against the Tigers. He'll also be facing an Astros lineup that has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, hitting .270 as a team and averaging 5.6 runs per game against southpaw starters. Behind Rodon is a somewhat overworked White Sox bullpen given the team hasn't had a day off since back on June 7th. Luis Garcia will counter for Houston. He has quietly been one of the Astros most effective starters this season and has been outstanding here at home where he owns a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. Houston's bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted. Unlike the White Sox, who have been playing every day for nearly two weeks straight, the Astros were just off on Monday. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Mets had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Cubs last night while the Nationals enter this series off of four straight victories. I look for Washington to keep its winning streak intact for at least one more night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for New York. He's been awful in five road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four nighttime starts. Averaging just 3 2/3 innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Mets bullpen in this one. While New York's relief corps has posted fine overall numbers this season, it has struggled on the road having recorded a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with eight blown saves to go along with nine converted. Speaking of bullpens, it's certainly worth noting that the Mets haven't had an off day in over a week while the Nats' were idle yesterday. Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals. His numbers aren't great by any means, far from it in fact. However, he has pitched well over his last few starts, recording a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while working at least five innings in all three of those outings. Behind him is a terrific Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season, converting eight save opportunities while blowing only three. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Rays -165 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rays just dropped consecutive games in Chicago, losing the series in the process against the White Sox. I look for them to bounce back here on Thursday as they head to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Mariners. Left-hander Rich Hill will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He checks in sporting a 2.89 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six road starts this season with the Rays winning four of those games. Note that the Mariners average just 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Hill isn't likely to work deep into this contest, noting he averages just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road this season. That's just fine as the Rays bullpen, while somewhat overworked lately, has been terrific this season posting a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown on the road. They haven't blown a single save over their last seven contests, recording a sparkling 1.08 ERA and 0.57 WHIP along the way. Justin Dunn will counter for Seattle. He's been solid here at home this season, albeit with a rather small sample size of just 21 1/3 innings. Note that Dunn has recorded a 4.28 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in seven nighttime starts. Like Hill, Dunn is unlikely to work deep into this game. That leaves a Mariners bullpen that has posted a collective 4.03 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with just one converted save (and another blown) over the last seven games. At night this season, the M's 'pen has blown eight saves compared to nine converted. Note that the Rays have been a much better offensive team on the road this season, where they average an impressive 5.8 runs per contest. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back the home side here, but I believe it could be even higher. We cashed our free play on the Giants last night as they rallied from an early deficit to win a wild, high-scoring affair. I'm not expecting that same type of game to play out on Thursday but I'm confident the end result will be the same. Zac Gallen is expected to get the nod for the D'Backs as he makes his return from the I.L. His early season results were mixed, much like the early stages of his big league career. Note that he faced the Giants three times last season and in the third game we saw San Francisco finally figure him out, scoring four earned runs over just five innings. Gallen wasn't able to work deep into ball games with any consistency when he was healthy earlier this season and that spells trouble here as he'll likely not be extended too much, meaning we'll see plenty of an awful D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season, recording just three saves compared to eight blown. Kevin Gausman will start for the Giants. He remains one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball this season. There's a reason the Giants rewarded him with a substantial contract prior to this season. He's been lights out here at home this season, posting a 2.33 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in four starts. Better still, he has recorded a 1.25 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in six daytime starts with the Giants winning five of those games. The D'Backs have faced Gausman four times since the start of the 2019 season and have yet to figure him out, managing just four earned runs in 24 innings. With Gausman averaging 6 2/3 innings per start at home this season we may not need much help from the San Francisco defense. However, I will point out that the Giants 'pen has been outstanding this season, recording a collective 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 13 converted saves compared to just two blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Angels are red hot on the heels of consecutive three-game sweeps of the D'Backs and Royals, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. However, the A's are rolling as well, fresh off three straight wins over the Royals and riding a 9-2 run over their last 11 games. I like the home side to keep it going on Monday night. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. The wheels have come off for him a little bit lately as he's failed to last at least six innings in five straight starts and checks in sporting a 6.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. The A's have seemingly figured him out over their last couple of games against him, scoring six earned runs on 12 hits in only eight innings. With Bundy averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average bullpen in this one as well. Los Angeles' 'pen has posted a collective 4.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with nine saves and seven blown in night games this season. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. After a tough start to the season he's rounded into form, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts here at home with the A's winning seven of those. Going back over his last four starts, Manaea has allowed just two earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. With Manaea averaging north of six innings per start here at home this season, the A's bullpen isn't a major concern, but they have been solid, particularly at home where they've recorded a somewhat lofty 4.31 ERA but a respectable 1.29 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only two blown. While the Angels have hit left-handed starting pitching well this season, they haven't done much against Manaea, managing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two games against him this season. The A's bats have finally woken up lately, scoring 31 runs in their last six games, with Matt Chapman in particular getting on a bit of a heater at the dish over the last few games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals -180 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Miami at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals return home licking their wounds following a series sweep at the hands of the rival Cubs. I like their chances of getting back on track here as they open a series with the Marlins, who check in 13-22 while averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Braxton Garrett will get his second start of the season for Miami. He wasn't great in his season debut, lasting just four innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits while striking out only three and walking three. Garrett has now made three big league starts and has yet to last more than five innings in any of them. That opens the door for a Marlins bullpen that has posted a 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season, blowing eight save opportunities while converting only six. Adam Wainwright will counter for the Cardinals. He's enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, particularly at home where he has recorded a stellar 2.62 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts. He's averaging just under seven innings per start here at home. Behind him is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP at home this season - not all that impressive by any means, however, that same 'pen has converted 12 saves compared to just one blown here in St. Louis. Take St. Louis (9*). |
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06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox got past the Tigers in extra innings last night and I look for them to add to Detroit's misery on Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago. While he has struggled on the road this season, he's had no such issues against the Tigers over the course of his career. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 7-0 in his seven previous starts against them. Detroit has already had two looks at Cease this season and four since the start of last year. However, if the Tigers haven't figured him out by now, they're likely not going to do so. Behind Cease is an average White Sox bullpen, but one that has excelled against A.L. Central opponents, posting a collective 3.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 91 innings this season (entering last night's action). Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. This will be Chicago's third look at Urena this season. After struggling against him in their first go-round, we saw the White Sox bust out last Sunday, scoring three earned runs on six hits over five innings. With Urena averaging between four and five innings per start at home this season we're likely to see plenty of the Tigers bullpen, which has struggled here, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.39 WHIP (entering last night's game). Interestingly, the Tigers 'pen has blown six saves while converting only five in day games this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -110 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Red Sox to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Astros on Thursday night at Fenway Park. While this pitching matchup certainly doesn't appear to favor Boston as Houston sends Zach Greinke to the hill against Eduardo Rodriguez. Greinke has been terrific this season but he's also been spotted plenty of run support. While he's coming off a complete game victory over the Blue Jays in Buffalo last week, he's still averaging just over 6 1/3 innings per start this season which does leave the door open for an Astros bullpen that while solid lately, still owns a 4.39 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with only six converted saves compared to seven blown on the road this season. As mentioned, Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. He wasn't good against the Astros last week but did bounce back with a solid outing in a 7-3 road victory over the Yankees on Saturday. Note that Rodriguez has pitched considerably better at home than on the road this season and that most recent start against the Astros came in Houston. Here at Fenway Park, he owns a 4.26 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with the Sox winning two of his three starts. Behind Rodriguez is a terrific Boston bullpen that has posted a collective 3.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with nine converted saves compared to only four blown here at home this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -134 | 8-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well for the Red Sox as they look to bounce back following last night's 7-1 loss in the series-opener. They'll be facing Astros starter Jake Odorizzi for the second time this season after they defeated him by a 5-1 score last week (we won with the Red Sox first five innings in that contest). Odorizzi hasn't fared well since joining the Astros rotation, posting a 7.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in five starts. He's averaging only 3 1/3 innings per start which spells trouble as the Astros bullpen has posted a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season where they've converted just five of 12 save opportunities. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's been good but not great overall this season but has been particularly sharp in nighttime starts, recording a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four outings. It's encouraging that he has worked just shy of six innings per start and we're fine supporting the Red Sox bullpen here, noting that they've posted a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP here at Fenway Park, making good on nine of 13 save opportunities. Note that over the last seven games, the Boston 'pen has recorded a sparkling 1.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This price seems awfully short given the way the pitching matchup sets up on Wednesday night in St. Petersburg. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals. The wheels have fallen off for him a bit this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 7.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five starts, with the Nationals winning only one of those games. He averages just a shade over five innings per start this season and you would have to go back five outings to find the last time he made it through the sixth inning. That spells trouble as the Nats' bullpen hasn't been good, recording a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. Entering last night's game, Washington's relief corps had posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with a pair of blown save opportunities over their last seven games. Rookie Shane McClanahan will counter for Tampa Bay. He's made three home starts, recording a 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been outstanding. Tampa relievers have posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this season, making good on seven of nine save opportunities. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent weeks and I look for them to post another victory on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -210 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the A's in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Wednesday afternoon. Matt Peacock will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's been good but certainly not great in four previous starts this season and now pitches on just four days' rest for the second straight start. Note that with Peacock averaging only five innings per start on the road we'll likely see plenty of an Arizona bullpen that has recorded a 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season, converting just three of 10 save opportunities along the way. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. The A's have gone 6-1 in his seven home starts this season where he owns a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Note that Manaea checks in sporting a sparkling 0.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three outings and starts on six days' rest today. Behind Manaea is an A's 'pen that has posted a collective 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with nine converted saves and just one blown save opportunity here at home this season. Take Oakland (9*). |