Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-08-21 | Yankees -111 v. Twins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees are reeling off a series sweep at the hands of the rival Red Sox over the weekend but I expect them to get back on track on Tuesday night in Minnesota. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He's struggled on the road this season, posting an ERA approaching six, yet the Yanks have still managed to win three of his five road outings. Perhaps that has something to do with their tremendous bullpen. With Montgomery averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Yankees bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.60 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season, converting nine saves while blowing only one. On a positive note regarding Montgomery he has posted a 2.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven nighttime starts this season. He'll be facing a Twins club that has gone just 7-13 and averaged 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Michael Pineda gets the call for Minnesota. He kept the ball in the park for the first time in six starts last time out but still allowed five earned runs and was chased after just three innings, recording only one strikeout along the way. Much of his success has come in the daytime this season as he has recorded an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of just two nighttime starts. My biggest concern is that Pineda averages just 5 1/3 innings and the Twins bullpen has struggled, posting a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at night this season. The Minnesota 'pen has converted only six saves while blowing five here at home. Take New York (9*). |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners have quietly started hitting lately, scoring five runs or more in five of their last seven games entering Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. They'll have a good opportunity to keep it rolling at the plate as they faced Tigers struggling starter Matt Boyd on Tuesday. Boyd has posted an 8.59 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does still own solid numbers here at home, the Tigers have actually only managed to win two of his six starts at Comerica Park. With Boyd averaging less than five innings per start over his last three outings that means we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season. Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Mariners - his second since returning from the injured list. He didn't really get stretched too far in his first start back, allowing just one earned run in four innings against the A's last week. Now he's had six days off since that outing and should be able to work a little deeper into this contest. Gonzales' overall numbers are skewed by a couple of bad starts to open the campaign. He checks in having allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 22 innings of work. While the Mariners bullpen hasn't been great this season, I'm not convinced the light-hitting Tigers can take advantage. Seattle relievers have posted a collective 4.65 ERA at night this season but a positive correction should be in order as they've actually recorded a solid 1.28 WHIP under the lights. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -175 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams appear headed in opposite directions right now with the Rockies having won four of their last six games while the Marlins have dropped nine of their last 10 overall. I'll take a flyer on the Fish here, however, as they're set up well against a Colorado club that has gone a miserable 4-22 on the road this season. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies. He has struggled in three road starts this season, posting a 7.14 ERA and 2.03 WHIP with the Rockies losing all three of those outings. With Senzatela averaging less than four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of the Rockies bullpen, which has recorded a 4.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while blowing three saves and converting only two this season. We played the 'over' in Pablo Lopez's last start, cashing that ticket with relative ease as he struggled on the road against the Blue Jays. Lopez has shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season. Here at home he has posted an incredible 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and we're not talking about a very small sample size as he's made six starts here, spanning 36 2/3 innings. With Lopez averaging over six innings per start at home we might not need a whole lot of help from the Marlins bullpen but it's worth noting that they've posted a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP here at home this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night but I like the Yankees to answer back on Saturday in the Bronx. Eduardo Rodriguez will get the call for Boston. He's been downright awful on the road this season, posting a 6.42 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has recorded a dreadful 9.88 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. Behind Rodriguez is a Red Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season, with that WHIP climbing to 2.02 over their last seven games entering last night's action. Jameson Taillon will counter for New York. He hasn't been particularly sharp this season but has been at his best here at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home (entering last night's contest). In night games, Yankees relievers have been even better, with a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Take New York (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays at a short price with their ace on the hill on Friday night as they look to take the first step in avenging a series loss in Houston suffered earlier this season. Toronto is of course seeing the ball exceptionally well right now, hitting .302 as a team over its last seven games. Here it will face veteran right-hander Zack Greinke, who has admittedly been at his best on the road this season where he owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five starts this season. However, the Jays will be getting their second look at him in less than a month and did have plenty of success the last time they faced him on May 9th, knocking him out of the game after four innings after he gave up four earned runs on nine hits. Greinke will also be making his second straight start on just four days of rest. Note that working behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has posted a 4.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season, blowing seven saves compared to only four converted. Hyun-Jin ryu gets the start for the Jays. He's struggled a bit in his last two starts but should bounce back nicely here. He owns a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five night starts this season. While I say he's struggled in his last couple of outings, that's relatively speaking. He's actually still posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two trips to the hill. Oddly enough, Ryu will be making his first career start against the Astros. The Toronto bullpen has been phenomenal of late, posting a collective 1.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work over their last seven games. While their home numbers leave a lot to be desired, it's worth noting that the Jays shifted to Sahlen Field in Buffalo for their home games earlier this week. In two games here, they've allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings. I mentioned the Astros won a series against Toronto at home earlier this season. Note that Houston checks in just 11-12 on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Mariners v. Angels -145 | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. The Angels return home after finishing their road trip on a positive note with three wins in their final four games, including an 8-1 rout of the Giants two nights ago. Meanwhile, the Mariners hit the road after a disappointing series loss at home against the A's, dropping their last two contests. Note that Seattle is 11-15 on the road this season where it averages only 3.8 runs per game. At first glance this may look like an opportunity to bust out offensively as Angels starter Griffin Canning owns poor overall numbers this season. However, a closer look shows that he has pitched well in four of his last five starts and has been terrific in four nighttime outings this season, recording a 2.82 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with the Angels winning three of those games. The less said about the Angels bullpen the better as they've struggled for the most part this season but I do think Canning can work fairly deep into this game as he has gone at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. He's been terrible in four road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP with the Mariners winning just one of those games. At night he owns a 5.62 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Note that the Angels are averaging an impressive 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Like the Angels 'pen, the Mariners relief corps has also struggled, posting a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over their last seven games entering yesterday's contest. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -199 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox had their series finale in Cleveland rained out yesterday, preventing them the opportunity to go for a 2-2 series split. I do look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses here as they open a series with the suddenly surging Tigers. Detroit has won five of its last seven games overall. Despite a 10-run explosion against the Brewers last time out, the Tigers are still averaging just 4.6 runs per game over their last seven contests, however. Casey Mize will get the start for Detroit on Thursday. While he's been solid this season, it's interesting to note that he owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in five starts against division opponents with the Tigers winning just two of those games. That includes a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. Note that Chicago will be getting its fourth look at Mize since last August and it has had some success against him, scoring eight earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. While the Tigers bullpen has been terrific lately, it still owns a 6.22 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season where it has recorded just five saves compared to four blown saves. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tremendous start this season having gone 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He's certainly comfortable pitching here in Chicago where he has gone 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 0.50 ERA and 0.39 WHIP over the last seven games and owns a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Giants are rolling right now and remain one of the most undervalued teams in baseball. While a letdown looks like it could be in order off a huge series sweep of the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles, I don't see it in this spot. The Angels are coming off consecutive wins of their own over a division rival in Oakland. That only salvaged a four-game series split with the A's - a series in which they scored a grand total of only nine runs. L.A. checks in just 11-15 on the road this season where it averages less than four runs per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco has posted a solid 14-7 home record, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash here with Dylan Bundy facing Johnny Cueto. I will point out, however, that Cueto has been at his best at home and in daytime starts this season, recording a 3.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP here in San Fran while posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in daytime outings. After a strong start to the season, the wheels have come off for Bundy as he has been tagged for 17 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts. The Angels have lost six of his last eight starts overall. Where the Giants own a big advantage here is in the bullpen and that's notable as both Bundy and Cueto average just a shade over five innings per start this season. Note that the Giants 'pen has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Rays v. Yankees -102 | 3-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I realize that the Yankees don't inspire a lot of confidence right now but I'm willing to back them at a discounted price as they look to bounce back from a surprising series sweep in Detroit. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. While his overall numbers are poor, he's actually been pretty sharp here at home where he has posted a 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 26 innings of work this season. He also owns a solid 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in daytime starts. The Rays hit him hard in a start earlier this month but that came in St. Petersburg (we won with the Rays in that game). Rich Hill will counter for Tampa Bay. Here, the Yanks will be getting their third look at the veteran left-hander this season. He struck out a season-high 13 and worked eight innings last time out but the Rays still came up short in a 2-1 loss to the Royals. Note that Hill owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. While he did work deep into the game in his last start, he actually averages just north of five innings per start this season. Behind Hill is a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road this season. In contrast, the Yankees 'pen has posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Take New York (9*). |
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05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Angels got the better of the A's in yesterday's ball game, securing a 4-0 victory to avoid a potential four-game sweep in this series. I look for Oakland to answer back with a win of its own on Sunday afternoon. Down-trodden Jose Quintana will take the ball for Los Angeles. To say that he has struggled this season would be an understatement. With a 7.93 ERA and 1.92 WHIP you have to wonder how many more starts the Angels can afford to give the veteran right-hander. Things have been even worse for Quintana on the road, where he owns a gaudy 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, albeit with a relatively small sample size of three starts spanning just 9 1/3 innings. But that's part of the concern here; Quintana is averaging less than four innings per start this season. That opens the door for an Angels bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season. Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The A's have dropped each of his last four starts although it's worth noting that three of those losses came by a single run. Irvin's overall numbers aren't great this season but most of his struggles have come against the Astros (in three starts against them he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. Note that Irvin has held his own in five daytime starts, recording a solid 1.21 WHIP. The A's bullpen hasn't been great lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a 4.50 ERA over their last seven games but that doesn't tell the whole story as they actually recorded a terrific 1.06 WHIP over that stretch. Oakland's 'pen was sharp yesterday, tossing 3 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball. Take Oakland (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -133 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers got past the Yankees in extra innings last night but I look for the Bronx Bombers to answer back with a victory of their own on Saturday afternoon. Deivi Garcia will take the ball for the Yanks. He's made just one spot start this season and allowed two earned runs over four innings in a 4-2 loss to the Orioles (back on April 26th). So you can understand why the Yankees are such a short favorite against the lowly Tigers here. However, I believe Garcia will have a short leash again in this one and behind him is a terrific Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 2.69 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the road this season. Note that the Tigers check in 14-22 against right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Spencer Turnbull gets the start for the Tigers. He's obviously been terrific on the whole this season, including a no-hitter in Seattle two starts back. With that being said, the Yanks will be getting their second look at Turnbull this month after knocking him around for four earned runs over five innings back on May 1st. Turnbull managed only one strikeout in that start so he wasn't really fooling anyone. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers 'pen that has held up well lately but owns a 5.35 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 79 innings pitched in the daytime this season. Take New York (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Padres -120 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins in this series after dropping Monday's opener and I look for them to wrap up the four-game set with another victory on Thursday afternoon. Ryan Weathers takes the ball for San Diego. He's not going to work deep into the game but that's just fine as the Padres bullpen has been lights out. They entered last night's contest having posted a collective 0.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss four shutout innings in a 2-1 extra innings victory. For Weathers' part, he has made two road starts, not allowing a single earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Brewers don't hit left-handers well, having gone 3-6 while averaging just 2.8 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Padres will be getting their second look at Brewers starter Adrian Houser this season. He owns an inflated 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four home starts this season with the Brewers winning just one of those. Also note that he averages less than five innings per start here at home which spells trouble as the Brewers bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 7.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take San Diego (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Cubs -134 v. Pirates | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Cubs to complete the sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh on Thursday afternoon. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for Chicago. After a tough start to the season he's seemingly righted the ship over his last several outings, allowing exactly one earned run in three of his last four starts. His last two starts have come on the road where he gave up just two earned runs in 14 2/3 innings of work, lowering his road ERA to 4.42 and his WHIP to 1.47 this season. Working behind Hendricks is a Cubs bullpen that has been lights out lately. They entered last night's game having posted a 0.00 ERA (yes, you read that right) and 0.81 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to shut the Pirates out over three scoreless frames in last night's 4-1 victory. In a bit of an odd scheduling quirk, the Cubs will be getting their fourth look at Pirates left-handed starter Tyler Anderson on Thursday afternoon. Note that they've gone 11-3, hitting .288 as a team and averaging over six runs per game against southpaw starters this season. Anderson owns an ugly 7.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last three outings. He's averaging 5 2/3 innings per start this season, which opens the door for a Pirates bullpen that has been dreadful lately, posting a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over their last seven games entering last night's contest. They were extended last night thanks to a very brief outing from starter Will Crowe, allowing one earned run over 7 2/3 innings. Take Chicago (9*). |
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05-27-21 | Phillies v. Marlins -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Philadelphia at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. The Marlins rallied to defeat the Phillies by a 4-2 score last night, continuing a terrific run that has seen them win six of their last eight games overall. I believe they have a bigger advantage than the books are giving them credit for in Thursday's series-finale. Spencer Howard will get his second start of the season for Philadelphia. He struggled as expected in his first, lasting just three innings in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Red Sox last weekend. Howard has now made seven big league starts and has yet to work beyond the fifth inning in any of them. That spells trouble here as the Phillies bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 5.96 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to blow last night's game allowing three earned runs with a 2-1 lead in the eighth inning. Note that the Marlins will be getting their second look at Howard after knocking him around for three earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in a game played last September. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. He's been lights out here at home this season, posting a 0.61 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in five starts. The Marlins have only managed to win two of those five games, but those two victories came in his last two home outings. Behind Lopez is a solid Marlins bullpen that entered last night's game having posted a 3.33 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven contests and would toss five shutout innings in last night's victory. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Orioles v. Twins -185 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins continue to 'make up for lost time' after a miserable start to the season, now having reeled off three straight wins and five victories in their last six games after last night's 7-4 triumph. We won with them last night and we'll go right back to the well in this early start on Wednesday. Jorge Lopez will take the ball for Baltimore. He's been absolutely dreadful in two daytime outings this season, posting a 10.12 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The fact that he averages just 4 1/3 innings per start is very concerning considering the O's bullpen has been a train wreck lately. Baltimore relievers entered last night's action having recorded a collective 10.17 ERA and 2.22 WHIP over their last seven games and gave up a couple of key runs late in last night's game as well. Michael Pineda will counter for Minnesota. He's quietly been pitching well all season for the Twins, but particularly here at home where he owns a 2.86 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. The Orioles haven't seen him since the 2017 season. Behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that has been outstanding lately, entering last night's game sporting a 3.00 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over their last seven games and allowed just one earned run in 3 1/3 innings in Tuesday's win. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Orioles v. Twins -196 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins are doing their best to make up for lost time right now, winners of four of their last five games but still a long way from getting back into contention. I do like their chances of staying hot on Tuesday against the reeling Orioles. Baltimore has lost seven straight games. The O's bullpen was a strength earlier in the season but the wheels have come off lately with their relievers posting a collective 10.17 ERA and 2.22 WHIP over their last seven games. With tonight's starter Dean Kremer averaging just over four innings per start the O's woeful 'pen should be forced into extended duty again. Jose Berrios isn't off to a banner start for the Twins but despite his 5.48 ERA and 1.30 WHIP here at home, Minnesota has still managed to win three of his four outings at Target Field. Interestingly, most of Berrios' struggles have come in the daytime. In three night starts he has posted a sparkling 1.62 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. Berrios has certainly had the O's number over the course of his career, going 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against them. Take Minnesota (9*). |
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05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
MLB on ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing weekend series' with the Cardinals dropping two of three games against the rival Cubs and the White Sox getting swept by the Yankees in the Bronx. Here, I look for the White Sox to bounce back at home as they once again look to tee off on a left-handed starting pitcher. Chicago's success against southpaw starters has been well-documented. It checks in 9-3 against lefties this season, averaging a whopping 8.0 runs per game and hitting just shy of .300 as a team. Cards starter Kwang-Hyun Kim has given up just one earned run in five consecutive starts but he's generally labored through those outings, most recently lasting just 3 1/3 innings in a start against the Padres last Sunday. Now that opposing teams have a little more tape on Kim, we've seen them have some success. To say that the Cards bullpen has been struggling would be an understatement. Note that Kim has posted a 3.86 ERA and an inflated 1.46 WHIP in three road starts this season, averaging less than four innings per start. That's concerning as behind Kim is a Cards bullpen that has recorded a 7.46 ERA and 2.01 WHIP over their last seven contests. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a terrific start, having posted a 1.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through seven starts. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Rockies v. Mets -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions with the Rockies coming off a sweep of the D'Backs and the Mets off a losing series against the Marlins. However, most of Colorado's success this season has come at home. The Rockies check in a miserable 2-17 on the road and don't figure to improve on that awful mark here. Austin Gomber was the main piece coming Colorado's way in the Nolan Arenado deal but so far he has disappointed. Gomber has posted an ugly 6.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season with Colorado dropping five of his six outings away from Coors Field. He did pitch well in this last two starts with both of those coming against the Padres. Every other opponent he has faced this season has seemingly had his number though. Note that Gomber averages just five innings per start which spells trouble for the Rockies as their bullpen has been awful, posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the season. David Peterson will counter for New York. The Mets have won two of his three home starts so far this season where he has recorded a 3.95 ERA and an impressive 1.02 WHIP. Like Gomber, he has also struggled to work deep into ball games but the key difference is, the Mets 'pen has been terrific, posting a 3.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with those numbers getting much better at home, where they're recorded a 1.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings. Take New York (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Royals have finally been able to regain their footing, winning five of their last eight games overall and have an opportunity to grab a second straight series win here on Sunday against the Tigers. They'll be getting their third look at Tigers starter Casey Mize already this season and they've had some success against him, scoring eight earned runs off of him in just 10 2/3 innings. Mize hasn't been fooling many Royals hitters, having posted a 5:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. Meanwhile, Royals lefty Kris Bubic gets another start after impressing against the Brewers earlier this week, allowing just one hit over six shutout innings. The Royals have now won three of his last four starts going back to last season. Both bullpens have been solid over the last week or so, but it's the Royals relief corps that has been better over the first couple of months of the season, posting a 3.48 ERA in daytime games compared to Detroit's 5.40 mark (entering yesterday's action). Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -162 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Twins took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night but I look for the Indians to bounce back behind their ace, Shane Bieber on Saturday. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been an absolute train wreck this season and checks in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road where the Twins have won just one of his five starts. The Indians will be getting their fourth look at him since last August and most recently tagged him for five earned runs over 5 2/3 innings back on April 27th. As I mentioned, Shane Bieber gets the nod for Cleveland. He's coming off a subpar performance in Seattle last time out but should bounce back here at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season with the Indians winning each of his last two outings here. Cleveland is 8-2 in his 10 career starts against Minnesota but will be looking for some revenge here after the Twins beat them 3-1 at home against Bieber last September. Not only do the Indians have the decisive edge in terms of the starters, they also have a considerable edge in the bullpen where they own one of the best relief corps in baseball so far this season. Indians relievers have posted a collective 2.57 ERA (entering last night's action) this season while the Twins have posted an ERA right around six on the road. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Orioles v. Nationals -152 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Jon Lester doesn't instill much confidence with most bettors at this stage of his career but he's actually pitched pretty well in three home starts this season, recording a 2.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP and he draws a favorable matchup against the struggling Orioles here. Baltimore has lost four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. O's starter Bruce Zimmermann continues to struggle at the big league level. He's allowed 10 earned runs over his last three starts, spanning just 13 innings of work. He owns a 5.28 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road with the O's dropping two of this three starts. Behind Zimmermann is an O's bullpen that started the year strong but has now posted an ERA north of six over their last seven games. By contrast, the Nats' 'pen has posted a 2.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in day games this season. Take Washington (9*). |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies -147 | 11-3 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox rallied for a wild 8-7 victory over the Blue Jays last night to secure their second straight series win. I look for them to stumble here, however, as they head to Philadelphia to face a Phillies club that will be seeing red after consecutive losses against the Marlins including a 6-0 setback last night. Philadelphia has the right starter on the mound to turn things around tonight as Aaron Nola has posted a perfect 4-0 team record in four home starts this season, recording a 1.40 ERA and 0.90 WHIP along the way. He'll be happy to get back home after going winless in his last two starts, but those came on the road. Note that Nola also has a solid track record against the Red Sox having given up just four earned runs in 22 career innings pitched against them. Martin Perez will counter for the Red Sox. The Phillies just saw him late last September, scoring four earned runs on five hits and six walks over five innings in a 6-5 win right here in Philadelphia. Despite his 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road, the Red Sox have only managed to win one of Perez's three road starts and that came against the lowly Twins back in the second week of April. Further supporting the Phillies here is their bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a stellar 2.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over their last seven games. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Giants v. Reds -132 | 19-4 | Loss | -132 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. The Giants have taken the first three games of this series, getting superb pitching from their starters and just enough offense to get by. While I'm not a big fan of backing teams looking to 'avoid the sweep', I do like the way this one sets up for the Reds. Keep in mind, San Francisco's last three victories have just been enough to move it one game over .500 on the road this season. Meanwhile, last night's loss dropped the Reds back to the .500 mark here at home. On a positive note, Cincinnati is averaging north of six runs per game here at home this season. Johnny Cueto gets the start for the Giants on Thursday. He has labored through his last two outings - both resulting in Giants losses at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh. In those two starts he was tagged for seven earned runs on 16 hits in just 7 1/3 innings of work. Cueto is averaging just over five innings per start this season which opens the door for a bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 5.17 ERA on the road this season. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. The Reds have won each of his last four starts. He's winless in three career outings against the Giants but has never faced them here at home. While Mahle's overall numbers are solid this season, I am expecting some positive regression in one key area. Mahle recorded a 3.0% home run percentage in 47 2/3 innings last season but that number has bumped up to 4.0% this year. His 35.5% fly ball rate is the culprit but I certainly expect him to get that number down, noting that he owns a career 26.0% fly ball rate. Working behind Mahle is a Reds bullpen that has struggled overall this season but has certainly shown signs of turning it around, entering last night's action having posted a collective 2.48 ERA over their last seven games. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners were no-hit by Spencer Turnbull last night and unfortunately we were along for the ride as we backed them in a 5-0 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, however, as Seattle hands the ball to highly-touted prospect Logan Gilbert for his second big league start. Gilbert was shaky in his debut against Cleveland last week, laboring through four innings in a 4-2 loss. Nerves were certainly a factor as Gilbert gave up a pair of home runs and also threw two wild pitches in that brief outing. There were positives to take away, however, as he struck out five and didn't issue a single walk. The fact that he 'only' allowed four runs was actually somewhat encouraging considering he didn't induce a single ground ball in the start. Gilbert draws a very manageable opponent here. While the Tigers have taken the first two games in this series they're still just 7-14 on the road this season and 11-19 against right-handed starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal and his winless record will get the start for Detroit on Tuesday. He checks in sporting an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in three road starts this season. The Tigers have lost all six of his starts here in 2021 and he's only managed to last an average of 4 2/3 innings. That opens the door for the possibility that we'll see extended work from a weak Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 6.13 ERA this season including a 7.46 mark on the road. By contrast, the Mariners 'pen entered last night's action having recorded a 3.09 ERA here at home. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners suffered a not-so-surprising letdown last night as they couldn't keep the positive momentum building after a series win over the Indians that was capped by a victory against Shane Bieber on Sunday. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to post their fifth win in their last six tries at home against Detroit. Spencer Turnbull will get the start for the Tigers. He pitched well in his most recent start but that was at home against a Royals club that was mired in a deep hitting slump. The Tigers have won two of Turnbull's five starts this season but both came at home with the other coming against the lowly Pirates. In two road outings, Turnbull has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. In his lone previous start against the Mariners back in 2009, Seattle prevailed by a 7-2 score in Detroit. While the Tigers bullpen has shown some improvement lately, this is still a group capable of blowing up on any given night, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.19 ERA this season. Justin Dunn will counter for the Mariners. His command issues continue to be a problem, with a walk rate north of 15%, however his stuff is good enough to fool most big league hitters, as evidenced by his .181 opponents batting average (that's on par with his career opponents BA). The Mariners have managed to win each of Dunn's two home starts this season. While he did labor through his last start, that came on the road as a +225 underdog against the Dodgers. I look for Dunn to bounce back here noting that the Tigers check in 10-19 against right-handed starters this season. The Mariners bullpen has generally been solid this season, particularly here at home where it entered last night's game with a collective 3.09 ERA. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Nationals secured a series win with a 3-0 shutout victory in Arizona yesterday. I look for them to get tripped up in the opener of a four-game series in Chicago on Monday, however. Jon Lester gets the nod for Washington. While he has posted a 2.25 ERA through three starts this season, I certainly don't believe that is sustainable. Lester has posted a 24.5% fly ball rate yet has inexplicably yet to allow a home run in 16 innings of work. Note that he has posted a home run rate 3.2% or higher in each of the last four seasons. Nearing the end of his career, Lester's strikeout rate continues to decline while his walk rate is on the way up. He has already handed out seven walks in 16 innings this season. Adbert Alzolay will counter for Chicago. Unlike Lester, Alzolay is just getting started. While the fact he has allowed four home runs in his last three starts is concerning, there are also positives to be taken away as he has held opposing hitters to a collective .184 batting average and recorded a 29.3% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate - all three marks considerably better than the MLB average. With their bullpen holding up well in the early going this season and the Cubs having posted an 8-3 record against left-handed starters, I'm willing to pay the reasonably lofty price to back them in this spot. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Cubs -125 v. Tigers | 8-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers had won four games in a row entering this series but fell in the opener last night by a 4-2 score and I look for them to suffer another loss on Saturday afternoon. Chicago will hand the ball to Trevor Williams who is off to a rather uneven start this season but has certainly shown glimpses of promise, allowing two earned runs or less in five of his first seven outings. He hasn't shown the ability to work deep into ball games but that's not as big of a concern when you consider the Cubs bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective ERA around 1.50 over their last seven games. On the flip side, the Tigers 'pen has recorded an ERA north of six this season. Tigers starter Jose Urena had a stretch of four straight starts working exactly seven innings but that wasn't a sustainable trend and to no one's surprise he was chased after just 4 1/3 innings last time out against Minnesota. The Cubs offense has been slumbering on this current road trip but certainly has the potential to bust out on any given day. Having allowed 19 hits and issued six walks over his last three starts spanning 18 1/3 innings, I believe the Cubs can get to Urena here and ultimately get into that weak Detroit bullpen to break this game open. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Royals -144 v. Tigers | 2-4 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's time for the Royals to bring an end to their ugly losing streak. They fell just short last night, rallying from a 7-0 eighth inning deficit to lose 8-7 in walk-off fashion. A poor start from Brady Singer cost them in that game but I expect a much better showing from Danny Duffy, their number one starter almost by default, here on Wednesday. Duffy has posted a perfect 3-0 team record in three road starts this season, including a 4-0 victory over these same Tigers. He tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball in that contest and the Royals will call on him for a similar performance here. Note that Kansas City has gone 46-24 with Duffy on the hill as a favorite priced at -150 or lower over the course of his career, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 27-69 as a home underdog over the last two-plus seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 runs. Note that they check in 2-7 against left-handed starters this season, hitting a woeful .192 as a team while averaging just 2.3 runs per game. I don't have a whole lot to say about Tigers starter Casey Mize. He's off to an up and down start to the season and while he has pitched well over his last couple of starts, his 7.27 ERA in two home starts (spanning 8 2/3 innings) is a concern. The Royals chased him before the end of the fifth inning, scoring six runs off of him in a lopsided victory back on April 23rd. While the Kansas City bullpen is a concern, the Tigers 'pen has been even worse, as we saw in last night's late collapse. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Mariners +210 v. Dodgers | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers continue to struggle following another series loss over the weekend and I don't believe they're a gimme in this Interleague series-opener against the Mariners on Tuesday night. Yusei Kikuchi enters this start pitching well for Seattle, having worked seven innings in three of his last four starts, allowing only three earned runs on six hits over 14 innings in his last two outings. The Mariners are 2-1 when he takes the ball on the road this season, where he has recorded a 3.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a rough rookie campaign, we've seen Kikuchi settle down since the start of last season, holding opposing hitters to a collective .238 batting average last year and a .212 mark so far in 2021. Kikuchi has always induced ground balls at a solid rate, and checks in having recorded a 53.4% ground ball percentage this season - more than 10% higher than the MLB average. Walker Buehler will take the ball for Los Angeles. As well as he has pitched, the Dodgers are just 3-3 in his six starts, including 1-2 here at home. Interestingly, Buehler has posted a 45.6% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season. His walks are down but as he attacks more of the zone, it seems that opposing hitters are having a little more success getting good wood on the ball. Note that he posted an incredible .178 opponents batting average last season but that average is up to .234 this season. If the Mariners can chase Buehler here, they can get to a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled for the most part this season, recording a 4.10 ERA with that number rising to 5.84 over their last seven games. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. |
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05-11-21 | Cubs +168 v. Indians | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians have been playing well lately, reeling off six wins in their last seven games but they were also just no-hit by Wade Miley two games back and following a couple of perhaps ill-timed off days, I'm willing to fade them here, even with ace Shane Bieber taking the ball. Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay is by no means a household name, but he enters this start pitching well, having allowed just four earned runs on seven hits over 11 innings in his last two outings - both resulting in Cubs victories. Alzolay has now held opposing hitters to a collective .192 batting average over the course of his big league career. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages this season and now checks in sporting a K% nearly 7% higher than the MLB average for his career. After posting a walk percentage right around 15% in limited action in each of the last two seasons, he's dropped that number to 7.0% here in 2021. There's not much negative I can say about Indians ace Shane Bieber. He's off to another fine start this season, but Cleveland certainly isn't invincible when he takes the ball, noting they lost his last home start by a 2-1 score against the Yankees despite the fact he gave up just two runs over seven frames. Note also that the Indians are just 6-12 when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Rangers +129 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We won with the Rangers in Kyle Gibson's last start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they look to stay hot in San Francisco. Gibson is off to an incredible start and I believe this is another matchup he can handle on Monday night. He's always been a ground ball pitcher and has recorded a 52.2% ground ball percentage this season - more than 8% higher than the MLB average. He hasn't posted a fly ball percentage higher than 18.4% since his rookie season in 2013 and has held true to that so far this year with a 15.7% mark, nearly 7% lower than the MLB average. The Giants had their hot streak at the plate stopped by the Padres pitching staff in yesterday's 11-1 loss. Here, they'll try to keep pace with a Rangers club that has posted an incredible 11-4 record against left-handed starters this season. Alex Wood is the southpaw that will take the ball for San Francisco on Monday. Like Gibson, he's off to a fine start here in 2021 but I do believe that regression is coming and he draws a tough matchup here. After allowing opposing hitters to bat a collective .291 in 2019 and .304 in 2020, they've hit just .163 against him this season. That's not a sustainable trend. Keep in mind, this is a guy pitching for his third team in as many years. The Giants took a flyer on him this season, paying him $3M to earn a spot in the rotation. I'm simply willing to bet we see some of that regression to the mean starting on Monday against Texas. Take Texas (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Reds v. Pirates +127 | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Cincinnati at 6:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the Pirates in an underdog role yesterday as they avoided the sweep in Chicago. Here, we'll back them again as they return home and look to avenge an early season series sweep at the hands of the Reds. Cincinnati dropped below .500 on the season with Saturday's loss in Cleveland, one night after Wade Miley tossed a no-hitter. Here, the Reds will turn to Tyler Mahle, who is off to a terrific start this season. While Mahle has pitched well, the Reds really aren't hitting right now and have one of the weakest bullpens in the majors having posted a collective 5.77 ERA. Mitch Keller has gotten off to an uneven start for the Pirates this season but was terrific in his most recent outing, tossing 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball in a 2-1 victory in San Diego. In Keller's lone previous start at home against the Reds he gave up just one earned run over six innings in a 3-2 Pirates victory. In fact, the Buccos check in 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Reds here at PNC Park. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Pirates +155 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 155 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Pirates as they look to salvage the finale of this series in Chicago. Tyler Anderson has been an undervalued commodity for the Buccos so far this season. He owns a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and his advanced stats are even better. Anderson has been better than the MLB average in terms of both hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats while limiting opposing hitters to a collective .225 batting average. He's improved on his strikeout and walk rate and has posted a solid 2.2% home run percentage. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tough start this season having recorded a 37.4% ground ball percentage - well south of his career average in that department. He has also had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, posting an 8.0% home run percentage and a .315 opponents batting average. The Pirates have been right there with the Cubs in the first two games of this series, losing both games by 3-2 scores. Look for them to get over the hump on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Diamondbacks +275 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the slumping D'Backs here as they look to avoid a second consecutive sweep on the road. The Mets are massive favorites here with Jacob DeGrom taking the ball but it's worth noting that they've managed to win just five of his last 11 starts going back to last August. There's nothing negative I can say about New York's ace but for whatever reason we rarely see the Mets offense show up when he takes the hill. Riley Smith will be tasked with keeping the D'Backs in this one. He has more than held his own through his first 40 1/3 big league innings, recording a 34.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of walk percentage while also posting a terrific 1.8% home run percentage. I'm confident Smith can at least give his slumping club a shot in this one and we'll look for the Mets offense to let DeGrom down once again. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Dodgers v. Angels +131 | 14-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers are a mess right now, losers of 10 of their last 12 games and while they appear to be in good position to snap their current four-game skid behind Clayton Kershaw on Saturday, I'm not sure it will play out that way on the field. The Angels snapped a losing skid of their own last night, winning for the first time in six games. Tonight they'll turn to Dylan Bundy, who is quickly becoming one of the top arms on their staff. Bundy was quietly terrific last season, finishing top-nine in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off this season, recording a 26.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .224 batting average after posting a stellar .208 opponents batting average last season. Kershaw is off to a fine start as well but has been given three runs or less of support in four of his last five starts. The Angels have gone 2-5 against left-handed starters this season but there's been some bad luck involved in that as they actually average slightly more runs per game (4.7) against southpaw starters than against righties. Take the Angels (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays +135 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 135 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. After getting drummed in the opener of this series last night I look for the Blue Jays to respond with a victory of their own on Saturday. Steven Matz has been solid for the Jays in the early going this season, checking in with a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a .238 opponents batting average. He'll be up against Astros starter Cristian Javier, who owns an eye-popping 1.75 ERA and 0.90 WHIP but has also posted a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 37.3% fly ball percentage. After recording a lofty 5.1% home run percentage during his rookie campaign last year he's brought that number down to 1.0% so far this season but I'm expecting some regression to the mean in that department. Note that the Jays check in 16-8 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 10 runs or more over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-07-21 | White Sox v. Royals +143 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Royals will be happy to face a team other than the Indians after getting swept in a four-game series. On Friday they'll hand the ball to Brad Keller, who has struggled in the early going this season, but has still managed to alternate team wins and losses in his six starts to date. Note that the Royals are 10-2 all-time with Keller starting at home against A.L. Central opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 runs. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon owns a career 3-4 team record in seven starts against the Royals. He's off to a tremendous start this season, including of course a no-hitter. I do think some regression is coming, however, noting that the has recorded a 41.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 28.3% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than the MLB average. The Kansas City bullpen is a concern here but it's not as if the White Sox 'pen has been much better. In fact, Chicago has already posted seven blown saves compared to the Royals five. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Nationals +170 v. Yankees | 11-4 | Win | 170 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees are coming off an emotional series win over the Astros that ended on a sour note with a loss yesterday afternoon. I believe New York is overvalued here again on Friday, especially considering the Nationals are coming in off a home series sweep at the hands of the Braves. Most won't give the Nats' a chance here but I believe they have a good shot at stealing a victory in the Bronx. Note that Washington is a profitable 35-33 as a road underdog over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nats' on Friday. He's certainly off to an uneven start this season but there is some reason for optimism as he worked seven innings and allowed just two earned runs last time out. We're starting to see his ground ball rate creep back up toward his stellar career 48.2% ground ball percentage. I do think we'll continue to see some positive regression to the mean for the veteran left-hander and here he'll face a Yankees team that is just 4-4 and averaging 4.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Jameson Taillon hasn't pitched particularly well for the Yanks, recording a 31.7% ground ball percentage and a 35.0% fly ball percentage - a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium. New York has won just twice in his five starts this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies jumped ahead 5-0 in the first inning last night and held on for a 5-4 victory in a game they probably shouldn't have won. That was Philadelphia's third straight win to open this series but I like the Brewers to salvage the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will be responsible for trying to turn the tide for the Brew Crew here and he should be up to the challenge against a Phillies club he's faced three times over the course of his career, giving up just one earned run on three hits over 18 innings of work. Of course, Woodruff has been terrific this season and checks in sporting an 18-4 team record in the first half of the season over the last two seasons, with the Brewers outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. By contrast, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 10-22 team record in the first half over the course of his career, with his teams outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. While the Brewers have a slight edge in terms of starters here, they also own a more considerable edge in the bullpen, even if it hasn't gone their way in this series to date. Entering last night's action, the Milwaukee bullpen had posted a 3.00 ERA over the last seven games. By contrast, the Phillies 'pen entered last night's contest having recorded a collective 5.09 ERA over its last seven games. While it did get the job done last night, it wasn't without major difficulty as the Brewers threatened virtually every inning. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Toronto at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two matchups in this series and I like them to prevail in the third as well on Wednesday night. Robbie Ray will take the ball for Toronto. He's been reasonably solid in the early going this season, seemingly figuring out the control issues that plagued him last year. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has been credited with helping Ray find the strike zone, working all four of Ray's starts this season. However, now Kirk is on the 10-day I.L. Note that Ray has recorded a less than impressive 47.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. He has also seen his home run percentage creep up to 4.4% - 1.4% higher than the MLB average. Oakland will counter with Chris Bassitt on Wednesday, as he looks to string together a fifth straight team victory. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt and we won with the 'under' in his most recent outing. Bassitt has recorded a 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season - both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a 45.8% ground ball percentage which would match a career-best in that department. Working behind Bassitt is an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a sub-1.80 ERA over the last seven games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
National League Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Brewers as they look to get back at the Phillies after dropping the first two games in the series. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been terrific, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through six appearances, five starts this season. It gets better as Peralta has recorded a stellar 27.5% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 12% better than the MLB average. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average last season he's been even better in early returns here in 2021, recording a .146 opponents batting average. Working behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that while not great overall this season, did enter last night's action having posted a collective 3.00 ERA over their last seven games. It's been a different story for the Phillies as their 'pen has posted a collective ERA north of five (entering last night's action). Chase Anderson will get the start for them on Wednesday. As I've noted before this season, he's pitching for his fourth different team since breaking in with the D'Backs in 2014. He hasn't fared particularly well this season as his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up while he's recorded a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage, a 29.9% line drive percentage and a 28.4% fly ball percentage. Here, he'll face a Brewers lineup that is getting healthier with Lorenzo Cain returning to a starting role two nights ago before pinch-hitting in last night's contest. While Milwaukee has lost the first two games in this series it is still a solid 9-6 on the road this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds -123 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox shook off a losing series against the Indians and delivered a 9-0 knockout of the Reds last night, taking full advantage of ineffective Cincinnati starter Jeff Hoffman. The Reds were certainly ripe for a letdown in that game after a thrilling 13-12 extra innings victory over the Cubs in their previous game. Here, I look for Cincinnati to bounce back in an early afternoon start on getaway day. Dallas Keuchel gets the start for Chicago on Wednesday. He turned back the clock and finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but hasn't been able to regain that magic so far in 2021, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through his first six starts, spanning 31 innings of work. Keuchel's strikeouts are down and his walks are up and he's recorded a hard-hit ball percentage of 40.6% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He's worked more than five innings just twice in his six starts which could spell trouble as the White Sox bullpen has posted a collective ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray is still rounding into form after missing time due to injury. Last time out he racked up a season-high 11 strikeouts so it certainly appears that he's getting there. Note that Gray has posted an uncharacteristically-high home run percentage of 4.7% (his career mark is less than half of that) but has also recorded a solid 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage. We can anticipate continued positive regression from Gray, who is just one season removed from finishing top-seven in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now make the start for Cleveland. The play stands as originally posted on Kansas City. With a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats and a walk percentage north of 11%. The Indians took the first game of this series last night, their second straight victory, but I look for the Royals to answer back on Tuesday night. Sam Hentges will take the ball for the Indians. He was considered a top-20 prospect for the Indians last season but the jury is still out as to whether he's a viable option in the rotation. He was never able to prove himself in the minors, struggling mightily in Double-A ball two seasons ago prior to the Covid shutdown. Out of the bullpen this season he has labored through 5 2/3 innings of work, allowing eight hits, including three home runs. While we're talking about a small sample size, the big left-hander has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Despite his 57.9% ground ball percentage, he has posted a .320 opponents' batting average. Veteran Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He's off to a very average start to the season but that's about par for the course for the left-hander. Minor has faced the Indians twice during his career with both of those starts coming in 2019. In those two starts he allowed just 10 hits and one earned run over 15 innings, including a start here in Kansas City where he outdueled Shane Bieber in a 4-2 victory. Minor has generally fared better in the first half of the season compared to the second half, with his teams outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game in his last 21 first half starts. Note that the Indians are just 5-7 and hitting a collective .184 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats have gone silent in the first two games of this series and they draw an even tougher matchup against Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff on Saturday night. With that being said, I like them to bounce back and avoid a third straight loss at the hands of the Brew Crew behind another strong performance from Dustin May. May had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work. May is rounding into a terrific ground ball pitcher, after recording a 53.4% ground ball percentage last season he's improved that number to 56.3% so far this year. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .188 batting average while recording an incredible 37.2% strikeout percentage. While the Brewers have won the first two games in this series, like the Dodgers, they're also struggling at the plate right now, still missing two of their best hitters in Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Brandon Woodruff has actually faced the Cubs in three of his first five starts this season and he's absolutely owned them. There is reason to believe that the Dodgers can scratch together some offense against him here, however. Los Angeles actually faced Woodruff once last October and chased him before the end of the sixth inning, scoring three runs on five hits. Woodruff has posted a 40.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season, with both numbers checking in just north of the MLB average. His walks have crept up compared to last year with a 7.4% walk percentage but the fact that he has yet to give up a single home run has certainly helped his cause. Note that he posted a 3.1% home run percentage last season, falling right around the MLB average. Interestingly, the Dodgers have gone 29-11 the last 40 times they've faced a starting pitcher that has gone undefeated through five or more starts, as is the case with Woodruff, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers aren't hitting right now and that has a lot to do with the players that currently aren't in their lineup including Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. They're in tough on Thursday night as they prepare to face Trevor Bauer and send out spot starter Eric Lauer. Lauer should get hit hard in this one as he makes his first appearance of the 2021 season. The former Padres castoff got in very limited work with the Brewers last season and didn't fare well, posting an ERA north of 13 and a 2.36 WHIP in just 11 innings of work. He's been hit hard over the course of his three-year big league career, to the tune of a 41.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. He's not a ground ball pitcher by any means, with a career ground ball percentage 5% lower than the MLB average. Opposing batters hit a collective .347 off of him in limited action last season and I'm confident we'll see the Dodgers tee off tonight as well after finally waking up late in yesterday's eventual rout of the Reds. Trevor Bauer isn't off to a positive dominant start with his new club but he's certainly been good, and draws an undermanned Brewers lineup as I mentioned. Last year's N.L. Cy Young Award winner has held opposing hitters to a collective .135 batting average here in 2021 after posting a .159 opponents' batting average last season. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up and while he's recorded a relatively high fly ball percentage and home run percentage I would expect that to balance out in due time. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals saw their five-game winning streak come to an end in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates last night. I look for them to start a new streak on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Mike Minor against Mitch Keller. It's easy to forget that Minor is just one season removed from finishing eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting in an All-Star campaign with the Rangers in 2019. He was effective last year as well, splitting time with the Rangers and Royals and he's off to a fine start here in 2021. Minor has recorded a better than MLB average 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while holding opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average through four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. It's been a completely different story for Pirates starter Mitch Keller. He had a miserable spring and hasn't been any better here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of seven and a 1.78 WHIP through four starts, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Opposing hitters have teed off on Keller to the tune of a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.1 mph exit velocity with his line drive and fly ball percentages both sitting near 30% - considerably worse than the MLB average. For his career, opposing hitters are batting a collective .297 against Keller, 48 points north of the MLB average. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants have exceeded expectations so far this season, off to a 15-8 start following last night's 12-0 rout of the Rockies. Many expected Colorado to be one of baseball's worst teams and that's held true so far as they check in 8-14 on the campaign. Interestingly, the Rockies had won five of their last seven games prior to last night's setback but all seven of those games were played at home, where they've been a much different team. Chi Chi Gonzalez will get a spot start for the Rockies here. He's been alright in four appearances so far this season but certainly not dominant by any means. That's pretty much par for the course over his big league career. Gonzalez has yet to allow a home run this season but noting he has recorded a 4.0% and 3.3% home run percentage over the last two seasons with the Rockies, we can anticipate some regression to the mean in that department. Also note that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is north of 11.0% for the third straight season, albeit with a small sample size. Aaron Sanchez gets his fifth start of the season for the Giants. He's looking to make a comeback to respectability after a cup of coffee with the Astros last season. So far, so good as Sanchez has posted a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. He's gotten back to what made him so successful early in his career with the Blue Jays, keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing lots of ground balls. Sanchez has recorded a 61.0% ground ball percentage and 15.3% fly ball percentage so far this season, a perfect recipe for pitching in San Francisco. His strikeout rate is down slightly but his walk rate is down significantly as he seems to have improved his command and should be able to continue to pitch well against a Rockies club that hits a miserable .195 on the road this season. Note that Colorado checks in 4-21 the last 25 times its been on the road revenging a loss where it scored a run or less over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Giants are 23-10 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, averaging 5.4 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs in that spot. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Reds +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have now lost six games in a row following yesterday's 2-0 setback (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'll back them on Sunday, however, as they send Luis Castillo to the hill against Jack Flaherty. Castillo had a fine spring but hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of six and a 1.66 WHIP. A closer look does give reason for encouragement, however, as he's recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both better than the MLB average. He's always been a ground ball pitcher and this year has been no different as he's posted a 47.4% ground ball percentage and 16.7% fly ball percentage. While his strikeouts are down, so are his walks. We can anticipate some positive regression to the mean going forward noting that opponents have hit a collective .317 against him this season but just .225 over the course of his career. While the Cardinals have had a few offensive explosions this season, they check in having scored five runs or less in seven of their last nine games overall. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He had a shaky spring and is off to an uneven start to the regular season as well. He was helped out by his team's offense last time out, as the Cards put up 12 runs in a win over the Nationals. Flaherty has recorded a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage an an exit velocity nearing 91 mph of opposing bats. His fly ball percentage of 30.5% is nearly 8% higher than the MLB average. The Reds have essentially managed to win around one out of every three games here in St. Louis over the last three seasons and I look for that to hold true here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Angels +113 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the Angels yesterday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Thursday as they head to Houston to face the reeling Astros. Houston has lost three games in a row and nine of its last 10 overall entering this series with the Angels. Cristian Javier will take the ball on Thursday. Through 8 2/3 innings of work this season he has recorded a 47.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't appear he's going to be a ground ball pitcher at the big league level, having recorded a 29.3% ground ball percentage during his rookie campaign last year and 28.6% so far this season. Concerning is his 38.1% fly ball percentage through his first 8 2/3 innings pitched this season. Alex Cobb will counter for the Angels. They're paying him $15M this season so there's obviously some pressure to perform as he comes over from the Orioles. Cobb owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through his first two starts this season but there are reasons for encouragement as he has recorded a 55.2% ground ball percentage and a 10.3% fly ball percentage. He catches the Astros returning without a day off after playing at altitude in Denver. Of course, Houston has had plenty of Covid-related issues and is just now getting its lineup back to full strength. I'll take a shot with the Angels to steal the opener of this series on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians -103 | 6-3 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over New York at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm higher on Indians starter Aaron Civale than most. He's certainly overshadowed in the Indians rotation, understandably so with an ace like Shane Bieber in the number one slot. Civale has quietly impressed throughout his big league career and is off to another fine start here in 2021. Through 20 2/3 innings of work he has recorded a stellar 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while posting a 47.1% ground ball percentage. Through the early stages of his MLB career, Civale has been considerably above average in terms of walk percentage and home run percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .242 batting average. The Yankees will counter with Domingo German in Thursday's series-opener. Unlike Civale, German is not off to a positive start this season. He's lasted only seven innings through two starts, allowing 12 hits and seven earned runs. He's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park throughout his career and early on this season that has held true. For his career, German has recorded a 4.7% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. Worse still, he's posted a 51.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Opposing hitters are seeing German extremely well right now and the Indians have shown signs of life at the dish over the last couple of games, scoring 11 runs. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Chalk Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're paying a bit of a tariff to back the Padres here on Wednesday as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Brewers but I believe the price could be even higher. Adrian Houser will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has a tough act to follow after Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes absolutely dominated the Padres lineup over the last two nights. Houser had a rough spring but has been serviceable through two starts during the regular season. He's relied on a very high ground ball rate through three starts but there is some reason for concern as he's recorded a 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage and opponents have hit a collecting .288 off of him (after they hit .285 against him last season). That's not to mention the fact his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. The Padres are expected to have both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado back in the lineup on Wednesday after they were rested on Tuesday. Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres after quietly finishing fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season. Lamet faces a Brewers lineup that is still without two of its best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Lamet's numbers certainly won't pop off the page, but he did improve year-over-year in terms of strikeout percentage, home run percentage and walk percentage last season. For his career, Lamet has limited opposing hitters to a collective .202 batting average. This is a fine matchup for Lamet to ease his way into the 2021 campaign, noting the Brewers entered last night's action hitting just .206 against right-handed starters this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Angels after they evened the series at one game apiece with a victory last night. We were set to back Angels starter Jose Quintana before last Saturday's game against the Twins got postponed due to Covid protocols involving Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the veteran Quintana looks to shake off a rough start to the season. Keep in mind, Quintana has a lot to prove this year as he takes a $2.5M paycut with the Angels after being cut loose by the Cubs. He had a terrific spring but has posted a ridiculous 16.20 ERA and 3.40 WHIP through two regular season outings. While he has recorded a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage, the exit velocity off opposing bats is a better than MLB average 85.0 mph. He has also posted an excellent 55.6% ground ball percentage (we are talking about a small sample size here). Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Texas. He's been riding the coattails of his All-Star season in 2018 when he finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. The fact is, that's really been his only impressive campaign at the big league level. He's 0-3 through three starts this season, recording a 47.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity while also posting poor 27.3% and 31.8% line drive and fly ball percentages, respectively, both north of the MLB average. Take out that one outlier season in 2018 and his numbers across the board are actually quite awful. Here, he faces an Angels lineup that entered last night's action hitting a collective .261 against right-handed starting pitching. Note that with last night's loss, Texas is now a miserable 15-45 in its last 60 road games against A.L. West opponents. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers -181 v. Mariners | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a terrific bounce-back spot for the Dodgers off a rare two-game losing streak. Note that they've gone 39-11 the last 50 times they've come off two losses in their last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game on average in that situation. They'll send Julio Urias to the hill for this one. He had a fantastic spring but is off to a fairly mediocre start to the regular season. On a positive note, Urias has limited opposing hitters to a 30.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity. His strikeouts are down slightly but so are his walks. While he has given up three home runs in just 18 2/3 innings I'm not all that concerned by that as we should see some positive regression to the mean given he has posted a career 2.0% home run percentage (compared to the MLB average of 3.3%). Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He had a miserable spring and has picked up right where he left off here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of eight. Gonzalez has been hit hard to the tune of a 45.1% hard-hit ball percentage (the MLB average is 38.7%) and an exit velocity off opposing bats of 92.0 mph (MLB average is 88.5 mph). While I certainly expect him to turn things around at some point, this isn't an ideal matchup against a dangerous Dodgers lineup that is poised for a breakout following a couple of off days at the plate. Despite a poor batting average, Los Angeles has averaged 5.6 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Shane Bieber has pitched well through his first three starts this season but only has a 1-1 record to show for it. He'll be asked to once again serve as the stopper for the Indians on Sunday afternoon after they dropped the first two games in this series against in-state rival Cincinnati. I'll get behind Bieber here, noting that for as well as he's pitched in the early going this season, there's still room for improvement. He has recorded an uncharacteristic 9.5% walk percentage, well north of his career average in that category. I certainly look for him to settle down going forward and having posted a team record of 3-0 in three career starts against the Reds, with a 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, I'm confident he can shine in this matchup. Wade Miley has posted some gawdy advanced stats for the Reds, in a very limited early season sample size, and while I do expect him to hold his own again here today, I do expect the Indians bats to scratch out enough offense to support Bieber. We can certainly anticipate some mild regression from Miley today when you consider he has posted a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage - and again, Cleveland shouldn't need a whole lot of offense as long as Bieber holds up his end of the bargain, as he should. Despite dropping the first two games in this series, the Indians have still managed to split the last six matchups between these two teams in Cincinnati. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Pirates took the first game of this series in blowout fashion last night (we won with the 'under'). I like the Brewers to get one back on Saturday as they go up against Buccos journeyman starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill is quite simply barely hanging on at the big league level - now pitching for his ninth different team since 2014. Things haven't been going particularly well for the veteran right-hander. He earned himself a $1M contract with the Pirates this year thanks to serviceable work with the Giants last year, in a very limited sample size. Through two starts with the Pirates, Cahill has posted an 8.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. It gets worse. He has recorded a 53.8% hard-hit ball percentage, 91.2 mpg exit velocity and a 34.6% fly ball percentage - all considerably worse than the MLB average. Cahill was once a true ground ball pitcher but after posting a ground ball percentage well north of 50% every year from 2015 to 2018 he hasn't come close to touching that number since. His strikeout rate has managed to improve the last couple of years but his home run percentage has also ballooned. With opponents teeing off to the tune of a .324 batting average against him in limited work this season, I look for the Brewers bats to come alive on Saturday. Milwaukee will counter with a veteran starter of its own in Brett Anderson. Unlike Cahill, he has settled in during his twilight years at the big league level. Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage throughout his career, including through two starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .243 against him through 10 innings of work here in 2021. While the Pirates have been playing better baseball lately, they're still likely to bring up the rear in the N.L. Central this season. Look for the Brewers to respond following last night's lopsided defeat. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -153 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Detroit at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This spot sets up nicely for the A's as they return home following an encouraging 4-1 road trip to host a Tigers club that is in for a letdown off a surprising series sweep in Houston. Detroit certainly got behind manager A.J. Hinch in his return to Houston, delivering three straight wins by a combined 20-8 margin. I still don't think the Tigers are actually as good as their 6-6 record would indicate, though, and expect them to fall short in Thursday's series-opener in Oakland. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for the Tigers. He has labored through his first two starts this season, failing to make it through the sixth inning in either of them. After recording a 40.5% fly ball percentage in 32 big league innings last year he's right on course again through two starts in 2021, posting a 41.4% fly ball percentage. While we are talking about a fairly small sample size, he has now posted a 6.9% home run percentage during his big league career, more than twice the MLB average in that category. After a shaky season debut, Sean Manaea settled in and delivered a clutch performance in Houston last week, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-2 A's victory. While he's certainly had some ups and downs, the A's have never given up on Manaea since he broke into the bigs in 2016 and I do feel he can be a solid contributor near the top of their rotation this year. Note that Manaea has been better than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage, ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage in the early going this season. Opponents are hitting .286 against him through two starts but I would certainly expect some positive regression to the mean in that department as Manaea has limited opposing hitters to a .248 batting average over the course of his career. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs evened this series at a game apiece with last night's 3-2 win. I look for the Brewers to get it right back on Wednesday, however, as they send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Jake Arrieta. Burnes is part of Milwaukee's underrated 1-2 punch at the top of its rotation that also includes Brandon Woodruff, who was sharp again last night. Burnes was terrific in the spring and he's been effective through two regular season starts as well, allowing only two hits and one earned run while posting a ridiculous 20:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings of work. Note that opponents have now hit just .227 off of Burnes over his 3+ year big league career and he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories we look at, considerably so in some including strikeout percentage where he is 31.9% compared to the 22.8% MLB average. He has posted an incredible 26.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.9% ground ball percentage through two starts - again owning numbers considerably better than the MLB average in both categories during his career. Jake Arrieta gets the nod for the Cubs. Unlike that of Burnes, Arrieta's career is winding down and the numbers show it. While he does check in 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA through two starts this season there is reason for concern. He has yet to allow a home run this season but has recorded a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and an ugly 36.8% fly ball percentage. In other words, it's only a matter of time before Arrieta starts giving up the long ball. Note that he's been worse than the league average in each of the last four seasons in terms of home run percentage. That's not to mention the fact that Arrieta's strikeout percentage hasn't been higher than 19.1% in five years. The MLB average for that category is 20.7%. Finally, opponents have hit .283 and .298 against him over the last two seasons, respectively and are hitting .283 off of him again this year. Starting pitchers aren't everything when it comes to baseball handicapping, but in this case, I feel the Brewers have enough of an edge to warrant a play. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up for the A's, who got off to a slow start this season but are enjoying some good vibes after securing their first series victory with two consecutive wins in Houston over the weekend. The D'Backs are also coming off an impressive series win over the Reds thanks to a perfect weekend. I simply feel that Oakland has considerably more upside and I like the way the pitching matchup sets up on Monday. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. He hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for this season, going winless with an ERA north of five through his first two outings. However, this is a guy that finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and is certainly capable of bouncing back against the D'Backs on Monday. Note that Bassitt has allowed two home runs in just 11 1/3 innings of work this season but has proven capable of keeping the ball in the park during his MLB career. He gave up just 0.9 home runs per nine innings last season. There are a number of areas where we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to Bassitt this season, and speaking of regression, I do feel some of that is in order when it comes to the D'Backs offense, which just scored 20 runs in a three-game series against the Reds. Madison Bumgarner will get the nod for Arizona. He continues to wind down what has been a tremendous career, but not on a positive note. Through two starts this season he has recorded an ugly 54.8% hard-hit ball percentage and a staggering 43.8% line drive percentage - nearly double the MLB average in the latter category. Note that the A's have gone 46-18 in their last 64 games against left-handed starting pitching, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 runs per game in the process. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -155 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have already assured themselves of a series victory over the Phillies by taking the first two games in this series but you can be sure they want to complete the sweep on Sunday night after getting swept themselves in a three-game series in Philadelphia last weekend. We've finally seen signs of life from the Braves slumping 2-through-4 hitters in this series with Freddie Freeman homering in each of the last two games, Ozzie Albies collecting an extra-base hit in consecutive games and Marcell Ozuna chipping in with a couple of hits and a walk. Tonight, Atlanta will be facing Phillies starter Matt Moore. He labored through his first start of the season, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while allowing four hits, four walks and two earned runs. Note that Moore struggled mightily in his last two full big league seasons in 2017 and 2018 (he pitched only 10 innings in 2019 and didn't pitch at all in 2020), allowing opponents to hit .283 and .305, respectively, while recording ugly hard-hit ball percentages of 44.9% and 48.3% not to mention line drive and fly ball percentages both north of the MLB average. The Braves are counting on veteran left-hander Drew Smyly to be a part of their rotation this season, paying him $11 million. He was solid in his season debut, giving up just two earned runs on four hits over six innings while striking out eight. While I'm not all that high on Smyly in the long-term picture, there's no denying that he's held his own in limited work going back to the start of last season. Given he had a terrific spring and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, I'm willing to take a flyer on him here in this key early season division matchup with the Phillies. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Mariners v. Twins -170 | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Seattle at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This is a solid spot to back the Twins noting that they've gone an impressive 14-2 the last 16 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscoring opponents by a wide 2.6-run margin on average. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a negative momentum fade having gone 33-72, outscored by 1.9 runs per game on average after losing four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Note also that the Twins have outscored opponents by 2.3 runs per game on average the last 15 times they've come off a game where they've given up two runs or less, as is the case here. Look for Minnesota's red hot start to the season to continue here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -104 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly a tough team to trust right now on the heels of four straight losses including a wild, 10-8 setback against the D'Backs last night. They'll hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela tonight after he was lit up for seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his season debut. Senzatela took a step forward last season, going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, cutting down on his walks considerably - a theme that continued in the spring this year. On a positive note he did issue only one walk in his season debut and also posted a 29.4% hard-hit ball percentage. His opposing starter tonight, Madison Bumgarner, also got hit hard in his first start of the season, which is pretty much par for the course based on what we've seen from him over the last couple of seasons. Bumgarner was well above the MLB average in home run percentage and walk percentage last season. He has posted a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40% in each of the last two seasons and last week against the Padres that number reached 53.8%. By contrast, the MLB average in that category is 38.7%. Rockies starter Senzatela owns a 24-11 team record in 35 career starts at Coors Field with Colorado outscoring the opposition by 0.8 runs per game. Take Colorado (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Twins -143 v. Tigers | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off winning series' to open the season but I like the Twins to keep the positive momentum building on Monday afternoon at Comerica Park. Matt Shoemaker will make his first start for Minnesota. He got lit up in one exhibition start but was solid in three others and didn't issue a single walk over 12 1/3 innings of work, striking out eight batters along the way. In start contrast, Twins starter Jose Urena didn't miss many bats at all during the exhibition schedule, striking out just five batters and issuing nine walks in 14 innings pitched. While Urena will be making his first start with the Tigers, his career team record of 16-37 leaves a lot to be desired. After consecutive strong showings at the plate to start the season, we saw some regression from the Tigers yesterday as they managed only two hits in a blowout loss to the Indians. Look for the Twins to hand them a second straight loss on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -166 | 7-3 | Loss | -166 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Texas at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Royals yesterday and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them again on Sunday. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Rangers have been awful in the role of road underdog, now 5-23 in their last 28 opportunities, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 runs. Jordan Lyles doesn't figure to turn things around for them today, noting that he owns an awful 15-43 team record when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175 over the course of his career. The Royals have plated a whopping 25 runs through two games and while I'm not anticipating another offensive explosion on Sunday, I do expect Kansas City to do enough damage at the plate to secure a third straight victory. Take Kansas City (9*). |
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04-03-21 | Braves -107 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. It seems like the majority of bettors were all over the Braves in their season-opener against the Phillies and it didn't go particularly well as Atlanta fell behind early and ultimately fell in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. I do look for the Braves to bounce back on Saturday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Zack Wheeler. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has come off a one-run loss, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game in that situation. Better still, the Braves are 19-3 the last 22 times they've come off a game where they were held to two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 3.8 runs on average in that spot. While Charlie Morton's career numbers against the Phillies are ugly, he has only faced them twice since 2011 and has been reasonably effective in those two starts, giving up just three earned runs while posting a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings of work. He posted a perfect 2-0 team record in those two starts. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler does own a career winning record against Atlanta (6-5) but has generally labored through those starts, recording a 3.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He has posted a 2-4 team record in six starts against the Braves over the last two seasons, recording more than four strikeouts in only two of those six outings. The Braves were forced to use five bullpen arms in Thursday's opener but that's not a major concern following the off day on Friday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Rangers v. Royals -150 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Texas at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The Royals fell behind early but rallied to win a wild one by a 14-10 score on Opening Day. I look for them to make it two in a row over the Rangers on Saturday. Note that Texas is a miserable 5-22 in its last 27 games as a road underdog, outscored by 2.2 runs per game on average. Worse still, the Rangers are 2-15 when priced between +125 and +175, as is the case at the time of writing today, outscored by an average of 2.6 runs in that spot. Kohei Arihara will be making his big league debut for the Rangers on Saturday afternoon. He held up ok in four exhibition starts during Spring Training but was certainly nothing special, allowing 14 hits and two home runs while striking out only 11 in 14 innings of work. The Royals pose a stiff challenge with an improved lineup as evidenced by Thursday's offensive explosion. Kansas City starter Mike Minor shouldn't count on that same level of offensive support here, but he shouldn't need it. Minor had an up and down 2020 campaign but is a quality veteran starter that should give his team 5-6 solid innings of work on Saturday. During Spring Training, Minor settled down to work five effective innings against the Rockies in his final exhibition start, allowing just one earned run while striking out an exhibition-high six batters. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Astros drummed the A's 8-1 in last night's season-opener but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night in Oakland. Cristian Javier will take the ball for Houston. He got in limited work during a Covid-shortened 2020 season, facing the A's twice. He didn't last beyond the fifth inning in either of those starts, allowing seven earned runs (and four home run) in just eight innings of work. Javier worked just three scoreless innings during Spring Training, allowing one hit and posting a 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Oakland. The A's went a perfect 3-0 in his three starts against the Astros last season. He was very effective in two regular season starts against Houston, allowing just four earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. However, he got lit up in a postseason start versus the Astros, chased from that game after just 4 1/3 innings. I'm willing to chalk up that poor performance to nerves and certainly anticipate a better performance from him here as he looks to help the A's earn their first win of the season. Last night's blowout loss should be easy for the A's to flush from their memory as there are going to be nights like that over the course of a long 162-game season. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Indians -181 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -181 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This may appear to be a bit of a steep price in favor of the Indians but not when you consider how dominant defending A.L. Cy Young winner Shane Bieber has been in recent years. Cleveland yielded the A.L. Central crown to the Twins last year but should be right back in contention here in 2021. Bieber already appears to be in midseason form, wrapping up Spring Training by allowing just eight hits and one earned run while striking out 15 and walking only three in his final two starts, spanning 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Indians have outscored opponents by 1.3 runs per game when Bieber starts on the road with a total set between 7 and 8.5 over the course of his career. The Tigers have won just 22 of 84 games as a home underdog over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.7 runs per game in that situation. Thursday's starter Matt Boyd is coming off a rough 2020 campaign. He was given the nod here on Opening Day due to his willingness to work on improving during the offseason and his general work ethic according to Tigers new manager A.J. Hinch. Note that Boyd owns a career 4.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Indians. Take Cleveland (9*). |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took back control of this series with a relatively easy 6-2 victory last night. I expect them to take full reins with another win on Saturday as they send Julio Urias to the hill against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. Urias has been sharp both as a starter and out of the bullpen and I expect him to be comfortable making this start on Saturday night as well. In four postseason appearances he has allowed just one earned run on seven hits in 16 innings of work. Meanwhile, Yarbrough hasn't been as sharp in the playoffs as he was during the regular season, albeit in limited work. Yarbrough has allowed 11 hits, three walks and three home runs in 10 2/3 innings here in the postseason. The Dodgers are a confident bunch right now. We won with the Rays in their lone victory in this series but here I believe L.A. is the play, and in fact the price could be even higher than it is. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:09 pm et on Tuesday. There are those that feel Clayton Kershaw is no longer the Dodgers ace with Walker Buehler taking over that bill here in 2020. I think we see a strong performance from Kershaw in the opener of the World Series on Tuesday night, however. I also expect the Dodgers bats to come up big against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. We saw Glasnow's walks per nine innings rise considerably compared to a year ago during the regular season and that trend has continued here in the postseason as he has issued eight walks while also allowing six home runs in 19 1/3 innings of work. I'm confident the Dodgers can make Glasnow pay for his command issues. While I do expect this to be a long series, I feel Los Angeles could be priced even higher than it is here in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is by all accounts the Dodgers last stand as they try to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the NLCS on Wednesday night. Los Angeles certainly showed plenty of fight late in last night's game - a tough 8-7 loss - and I look some carry-over from that performance here. If there's a Braves starter they can get to it's Kyle Wright, who takes the ball today. Wright pitched well in a spot start against the Marlins last round but he'll face a tougher challenge here. Note that he lasted at least six innings in just four of eight regular season starts and was tagged for at least four earned runs in three of those outings. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing just four hits and no earned runs while fanning 11 and walking just one in eight innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +182 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami over Atlanta at 2:08 pm et on Tuesday. I will gladly take the value being offered with the underdog Marlins on Tuesday afternoon. Miami has been undervalued all season. The Marlins certainly enter the NLDS with a real 'no one believes in us' vibe if there is such a thing. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami in Game 1. He was masterful in his Wild Card round start against the Cubs and has now worked at least six innings in six straight starts going back to the regular season. You would have to go back to August 30th to find the last time Alcantara gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta. He was on point in his Wild Card round start against the Reds but let's face it, Cincinnati just didn't bring its bats to that series. Note that prior to that start, Fried hadn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Marlins he worked just an inning and gave up three hits and two earned runs on September 23rd. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 7:08 pm et on Thursday. The Padres fell short in the opener of this series yesterday - a game that marked their long-awaited return to the MLB postseason. Perhaps it should have been expected that they would experience some nerves and that certainly appeared to be the case early on as they fell behind by four runs before they even had a chance to bat. Over the game's final eight innings the Padres played the Cards even and I expect them to get over the hump and even up this series with a victory on Thursday. Zach Davies was terrific during the regular season, posting a career-high 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings while also issuing his lowest walks per nine innings since the 2016 campaign. His 1.07 WHIP was also a career-low, as was his 2.73 ERA. While we are talking about a relatively small sample size, those numbers are still worth noting. Cards starter Adam Wainwright held up pretty well as he winds down a long, storied big league career. With that being said, he posted his lowest strikeouts per nine innings in three years and also matched a career-high for home runs allowed per nine innings. It's been somewhat of a 'Cinderella' season for the Padres and I don't expect it to end today. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -183 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 5 pm et on Tuesday. If the Jays are going to steal a game in this series it's going to be with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, not Matt Shoemaker. The Jays made the interesting choice to name Shoemaker their Game 1 starter. I suppose it doesn't really matter all that much in a three-game series but I would have thought they would want to put their best foot forward in the series-opener. Shoemaker enjoyed a fine bounce-back season but he'll have a tough time keeping the A.L.-leading Rays at bay in this one. Rays starter Blake Snell enjoyed another fine season, recording at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings for a third straight campaign while giving up fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to a year ago. I believe Tampa Bay should be laying an even steeper price here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -112 v. A's | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Oakland at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I think the betting marketplace has got it right installing the White Sox as a favorite here. This is likely the biggest pitching edge the Sox will have in this series as they send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Jesus Luzardo. In a short three-game series, they obviously need to make the most of it. Chicago beat up on left-handed starting pitching all season (14-0 vs. LH starters) and I look for more of the same against Luzardo here. Look for the Pale Hose to gain the upper hand in the opener. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -146 | 7-1 | Loss | -146 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Indians on Friday night as they host an Interleague matchup with the Brewers. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for Milwaukee. He was one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball last season but has settled down considerably this season, posting quite solid numbers. With that being said, his command hasn't been great as he has issued just shy of five walks per nine innings. He's giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, way down from last year's 3.1. That's the type of stat that tends to regress to the mean a little bit as the season goes on. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. His strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. Keep in mind, he battled command issues over a three-start stretch earlier but has settled down over his last couple of outings. He'll benefit from facing a Brewers club that ranks T26th in runs per game and 29th in team batting average. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Giants v. Rockies -127 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be a little hesitant to back the Rockies in a favored role following last night's 23-5 beatdown at the hands of the Giants. I do look for Colorado to respond here with Kyle Freeland on the mound. Freeland continues his comeback tour following a disastrous 2019 campaign. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly but more importantly, his walks per nine innings have dropped considerably and he's giving up far fewer home runs. Logan Webb will counter for the Giants. He's made just 15 big league starts, eight last year and seven this year so we don't have a lot to go on. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly this season, his walks have ballooned from 3.2 to 3.8 and he's been somewhat lucky, giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. That could change here at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Wednesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | 16-2 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Reds as they aim to bounce-back from last night's 7-5 loss at the hands of the Cardinals. Cincinnati will turn to its ace, Sonny Gray. He's been outstanding so far this season, improving on what was an All-Star campaign a year ago. Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all down. St. Louis' seven-run outburst last night was not a common occurrence as they entered action ranked T26 in runs per game. Look for Gray to keep their bats at bay on Tuesday. Kwang Hyun Kim starts for St. Louis. He has been very effective in his last two starts but still isn't missing many bats, recording just 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.2 walks. We're talking about a very small sample size at the big league level with Kim. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Cardinals as they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds on Monday. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He quietly won 16 games for the Cardinals last season and finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He's also allowing two fewer hits per nine innings. Meanwhile, Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has struggled. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down from 9.0 a year ago to 5.7 this season. His walks per nine innings have crept up from 2.6 last season to 3.6 this year. Neither of these offenses have excelled so far this season but I believe we'll see the Cards enjoy a solid night at the dish on Monday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-26-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -168 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price with the Cardinals on Wednesday night, but the price could be even higher in my opinion. Jakob Junis will make his return to the Royals rotation after dealing with a back injury. He wasn't good last season and he's been even worse here in 2020. While we are dealing with a small sample size (he's pitched just nine innings), Junis has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop considerably while his walks, hits and home runs allowed have all gone up compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson has posted an ERA north of six, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he's been burned by the long ball, allowing 2.7 home runs per nine innings. Note that he's never allowed more than 1.8 home runs per nine innings in a season previously, and that number was posted way back in 2012. Hudson's strikeouts per nine innings are way up over a year ago while he's also allowing few hits per nine innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +109 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Rockies starter German Marquez is pitching as poorly as he has at any point over the course of his big league career right now. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up considerably compared to last season. With that being said he has allowed a career-low 0.7 home runs per nine innings thus far. I do expect some regression in that department moving forward. Alex Young quietly put together a terrific rookie campaign for the D'Backs last season. Through nine appearances and two starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down. He allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings a year ago but that number has doubled here in 2020. I do look for Young to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, noting that while the Rockies are an excellent hitting team, they entered last night ranking T15th in the majors in home runs. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-25-20 | A's -156 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After a rough start to the season, A's starter Sean Manaea has turned things around in his last two outings, allowing just three earned runs while posting a 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings of work. His strikeouts per nine innings are down compared to last year but so are his walks. He's allowing north of 11 hits per nine innings but I expect him to improve on that average as the season goes on, noting he has never given up more than 9.5 runs per nine innings in a season over the course of his career. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas on Tuesday. His strikeouts are down considerably compared to the last two seasons while his walks are up slightly. All in all, what you see is what you get when it comes to Gibson. He's virtually a career .500 starter with an ERA well north of four and a 1.41 WHIP. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -175 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the chalk to back the Cardinals behind their ace Jack Flaherty on Monday night. Because Flaherty started the season injured, he hasn't been talked about much. Since returning he's made two starts, working 8 2/3 innings and giving up just three earned runs while posting a 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Remember, he was fourth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last year and an impressive 13th in MLB MVP award voting. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He has yet to allow an earned run in 17 2/3 innings of work this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his walks. He has yet to give up a home run and is allowing just 4.1 hits per nine innings but those stats aren't sustainable. By comparison, he gave up 8.4 hits per nine innings last season, recording a 4.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +107 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't feel the Blue Jays have any business being favored in this game and can certainly see the line moving before first pitch on Wednesday afternoon Tanner Roark will take the ball for Toronto. Roark is pitching for his fourth different team since the start of 2018, which is telling. He hasn't pitched particularly well with any of those teams and is off to another tough start this season. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are way up (6.8 per nine innings). He allowed a career-high 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season and has matched that number so far this season. Tommy Milone will counter for Baltimore. He was on the wrong end of a 15-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start. However, he has actually been fairly effective this season, with his strikeouts per nine innings up and his walks down. He has also finally been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 0.5 home runs per nine innings - a career-low even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Rockies starter German Marquez has proven time and time again that he can tame opposing bats at hitter-friendly Coors Field and I look for him to do it again on Saturday night against the Rangers. Marquez is off to a fine start this season, even if he was unable to guide the Rockies to a win against the Mariners in his last start. His numbers are very comparable to the last two seasons, in which he has posted an impressive 26-16 record with an ERA hovering around four - not half bad for pitching the majority of his games at Coors Field. Note that Marquez has posted an ERA just north of two while also cutting his hits and home runs allowed per nine innings down considerably over a year ago. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has struggled with his new club and perhaps we should have seen that coming. His numbers have generally gotten worse over the back half of his career since he made his debut back in 2013. The Twins cut him loose after he posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last season. So far this year his walks per nine innings are up while his strikeouts are down not to mention he's allowing more hits and home runs. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +120 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an encouraging series win over the Rockies at Coors Field and I look for them to build on that showing in Friday's series-opener against the Padres. San Diego starter Dinelson Lamet is off to an incredible start this season and will be facing Arizona for the third time already. I simply feel some regression is in order, noting that he posted a 4.57 ERA in his rookie campaign in 2017 before recording a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts last year. He's been doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park through four starts this season, allowing just 0.4 home runs per nine innings. I'm just not convinced we'll see that continue. Merrill Kelly is off to a fine start for the D'Backs this season as well. He was a workhorse in his rookie campaign last year, making 32 starts while posting a 4.42 ERA. While his strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly, his walks are also down significantly as he's issued 0.5 free passes per nine innings through his first three outings this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Nationals +119 v. Mets | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the Nationals at a generous price on Thursday afternoon in New York. The Nats will be looking to bounce back from last night's 11-6 loss to the Mets and I believe they're in good position to do so. Austin Voth will take the ball for Washington. While he was worked just five innings in both of his previous starts this season, he has pitched well, allowing just two earned runs on six hits over 10 innings. Keep in mind, he made eight starts and nine appearances last season and was effective, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are down in limited work this season, so are his walks. Rookie David Peterson will counter for New York. He'll be making his fourth start and like Voth, he has also pitched reasonably well. The one difference is that Peterson has struggled with his command, issuing over three walks per nine innings and posting a 1.32 WHIP. With the Nats offense showing signs of life thanks in large part to Juan Soto heating up in the middle of the order, I look for them to do some damage at the plate today. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-12-20 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox bounced back from a series-opening loss with a blowout victory here in the Motor City last night and I expect to see them build on that performance in a quick turn-around spot on Wednesday afternoon. The Tigers had a huge series in Pittsburgh over the weekend, plating a whopping 30 runs over the course of a three-game sweep. While Detroit is off to a fine start this season, we're still talking about a small sample size and in the long-run, I believe the White Sox will prove to be the better of these A.L. Central rivals. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago on Wednesday. After struggling in his season debut, Cease has pitched well over his last two starts, allowing just seven hits and two earned runs over 11 innings. This is more of a play against Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, however. I guess you could say he had a career year last season but that's not saying much as he went 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 32 starts. In that campaign he saw his walks per nine innings drop while his strikeouts per nine innings went up significantly. Here so far in 2020 we've seen a reversal of that and not surprisingly his numbers bear it out with a 9.20 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rockies on Tuesday night. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen has done nothing but impress since making his big league debut last season but I believe he's in for a rough night here. Note that while Gallen's strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly early on this season, so are his walks. While his 2.81 ERA is terrific, he has already been tagged for three home runs through 16 innings of work. Enter Coors Field on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He endured a disastrous 2019 campaign but let's not write him off just yet. Keep in mind, just two years ago Freeland posted a stellar 2.85 ERA in 33 big league starts. So far this season he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings. He's seen his walk totals drop under three per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Nationals v. Mets +135 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets got absolutely thrashed by the Nationals last night but I look for them to bounce back here at Citi Field on Tuesday. Max Scherzer returns from a hamstring injury for the Nats'. I'm simply not buying what the Nats' ace is selling so far this season as his walk totals are way up and he has generally looked quite ordinary through three starts. Meanwhile, Mets journeyman starter Rick Porcello tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run, against the Nats' last week and I'm confident we'll see a solid effort from him again here. The oddsmakers are giving Scherzer too much runway with this inflated price. Take New York (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The A's are off to an incredible 9-4 start this season, pacing the A.L. West. Meanwhile, Houston continues to scuff its heels, sitting at 6-6. The Astros will obviously be looking to put some pressure on the A's over the course of this weekend series but I like Oakland in the opener on Friday night. Zack Greinke will take the ball for Houston. He pitched well last time out after struggling in his season debut. Note that he's worked just nine innings through two starts, allowing seven hits and five earned runs. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He has posted a 0.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through two starts this season. Bassitt has actually been quite consistent at the big league level, most recently going 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last season. In three seasons where he has made at least 11 appearances he has posted a 3.81 ERA or better. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -127 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Look for the Braves to get back at the Blue Jays after suffering a tough 2-1 loss last night. Atlanta simply ran into an elite pitcher who was at the top of his game on Wednesday night with Hyun-Jin Ryu tossing a gem. They face another tough starter tonight, but an unproven one in rookie Nate Pearson. He impressed in his big league debut against the Nationals last week but I anticipate some regression here in his second start. Touki Toussaint hasn't had a great deal of success at the big league level since debuting in 2018 but the Braves are in tough with an injury-riddled starting rotation and need him to step up and help fill the void here. I'm high enough on the Braves bats that I believe they can get it done against a struggling Jays offense here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure it matters who the Braves go up against right now, they're red hot at the dish and capable of scoring runs in bunches. They're expected to face Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on Wednesday - a stiff challenge to be sure - but I think they'll be up for it and we're being offered a discounted price to back them. Sean Newcomb has been inconsistent so far this season but faces a Jays lineup that hasn't really been able to get loose this season - with last weekend's postponed games in Philadelphia certainly not helping matters. Look for the Braves to stay hot on Wednesday night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Padres are off to an incredible start to the season thanks to an explosive offense but I am anticipating some regression moving forward. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for San Diego on Saturday. Now in his third big league season, he has settled in as a middle of the road starter and certainly showed more of that in his season debut last week, lasting only 3 2/3 innings against the D'Backs. Kyle Freeland is off to a fine start for the Rockies after giving up just two earned runs in six frames against the Rangers last week. He was awful for the Rockies last season but has proven he can succeed at this level, going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018. I'm willing to take a flyer on him, not to mention the Rockies bats, here on Saturday night as they bounce back from a tough loss last night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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07-31-20 | Indians v. Twins +107 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 107 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Look for the Twins to bounce back following last night's shutout loss against the Indians. Minnesota ran into a red hot pitcher in Indians ace Shane Bieber last night and while it faces another stiff challenge against Mike Clevinger on Friday, I am confident we'll see the Twins gain a little more traction at the dish. Minnesota is off to a fine start this season, having won four of its first six contests. While we're only dealing with a small sample size, the Twins do check in ranking fourth in the league in runs scored and T6 in runs allowed. Randy Dobnak will get the nod for the Twins on Friday. He was effective over four innings in his season debut against the White Sox last week, allowing just one earned run. While the Indians are winning, they're not doing a lot of damage offensively and I look for that to catch up to them here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers inexplicably managed only a 2-2 split against projected bottom-feeders, the Giants, to start the season. Now they head to Houston for a seemingly tougher series against the defending A.L. champion Astros but I look for Los Angeles to get the series off to a winning start on Tuesday night. The jury is still out as to whether Astros starter Framber Valdez belongs in a big league rotation. He struggled mightily last year and is essentially only starting here as a stop-gap with ace Justin Verlander sidelined. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler is a bonafide star in the making for the Dodgers, making his first start of the season on Tuesday. He improved on both his strikeouts per nine innings and walks per nine innings last season, ultimately posting a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in an All-Star campaign. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Blue Jays v. Nationals -126 | 5-1 | Loss | -126 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot for the Nationals coming off last night's game of wasted opportunities in a 4-1 loss to the Blue Jays. Toronto is off to a reasonably solid start this season but key injuries are already piling up with closer Ken Giles and sophomore hitting machine Bo Bichette among those sidelined. Washington hasn't gotten off to the start it would have hoped but that had a lot to do with starting the season with a tough series against the Yankees. Here, the Nationals will hand the ball to Austin Voth. After struggling in limited work in 2018, Voth settled in nicely last season, making eight starts and posting a 3.30 ERA and posting a 44:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43 2/3 innings of work. Note that he didn't need to throw more than 96 pitches in any of those outings. Veteran Tanner Roark will make his Blue Jays debut on Tuesday night. The Jays will be the fourth team he has pitched for since 2018. There's a reason for that. Roark has struggled across a number of recent seasons, essentially going back to 2017. He hasn't posted an ERA lower than 4.24 in a season since then. Prior to that he had recorded sub-3.00 ERA's in three of his first four big league seasons. Unlike last night, look for the Nats to cash in on their opportunities against the Jays on Tuesday as they snap a two-game skid. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Braves v. Rays -148 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves are coming off a breakout performance at the plate last night in New York but I look for the Rays to keep them at bay in St. Petersburg on Monday. Atlanta will hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz, who is coming off a strong Summer Camp. Keep in mind, he has posted just one sub-4.24 ERA season over the course of his six-year big league career. That came in a true outlier season in 2018. Last year, Foltynewicz posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Here, he faces a Rays lineup that showed signs of busting out while notching back-to-back wins over the Jays over the weekend. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow on Monday. He has made 23 starts since joining the Rays two seasons ago, allowing just 82 hits in 116 1/3 innings of work. Last season he was limited due to injury but posted a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 60 2/3 innings. I look for him to rise to the challenge of facing a loaded Braves lineup on Monday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Blue Jays v. Nationals -124 | 4-1 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket fading the Jays on Saturday and while they probably deserved a better fate than a 6-5 extra innings loss yesterday, the fact is they enter Monday's series-opener in Washington sporting a 1-2 record - identical to that of the Nationals. I look for Washington to get the better of Toronto here. Trent Thornton will take the ball for Toronto. He was something of a workhorse for the Jays during his rookie season last year, but wasn't overly successful posting a 4.84 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. I feel that there's a considerable drop-off following Hyun-Jin Ryu at the top of the Jays rotation. That hasn't really been evident yet this season but here I look for the Nats' to take advantage of that fact. Keep in mind, Toronto lost closer Ken Giles to an apparent injury in yesterday's game. Veteran Anibal Sanchez will counter for Washington. He is coming off a solid 2019 campaign that saw him go 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. By all accounts he pitched well in both Spring Training and Summer Camp and I'm confident he'll give the Nats a strong outing in his 2020 debut on Monday night. The Jays had one big inning yesterday but have generally had a tough time getting going through their first three games this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-25-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -137 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 3:10 pm et on Saturday. There's plenty of excitement around the Blue Jays and that certainly wasn't dampened following an impressive 6-4 victory on opening night in St. Petersburg. I do look for the Rays to get back at the Jays on Saturday afternoon, however, as they send Ryan Yarbrough to the mound against Matt Shoemaker. Yarbrough started last season as a bit of an experiment, with the Rays sending relievers to the hill in 'opening' roles, although he ultimately stretched it out and made more conventional starts as the season went on. Yarbrough performed reasonably well, with an ERA just over four and a WHIP under 1.00. Perhaps most encouraging was the fact that he brought his walks per nine innings total down from 3.1 in 2018 to 1.3 in 2019. Shoemaker is coming off three straight injury-shortened seasons. Last year he managed to make only five starts, pitching very well in those outings, before bowing out. Because of his injury-plagued nature it's a little difficult to get a good read on Shoemaker, made even more difficult so by the strange circumstances around the 2020 campaign. I do feel there's a considerable drop-off from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who pitched last night, to Shoemaker here at the top of the Jays rotation and I look for the Rays to take advantage on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |