Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-25-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -137 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 3:10 pm et on Saturday. There's plenty of excitement around the Blue Jays and that certainly wasn't dampened following an impressive 6-4 victory on opening night in St. Petersburg. I do look for the Rays to get back at the Jays on Saturday afternoon, however, as they send Ryan Yarbrough to the mound against Matt Shoemaker. Yarbrough started last season as a bit of an experiment, with the Rays sending relievers to the hill in 'opening' roles, although he ultimately stretched it out and made more conventional starts as the season went on. Yarbrough performed reasonably well, with an ERA just over four and a WHIP under 1.00. Perhaps most encouraging was the fact that he brought his walks per nine innings total down from 3.1 in 2018 to 1.3 in 2019. Shoemaker is coming off three straight injury-shortened seasons. Last year he managed to make only five starts, pitching very well in those outings, before bowing out. Because of his injury-plagued nature it's a little difficult to get a good read on Shoemaker, made even more difficult so by the strange circumstances around the 2020 campaign. I do feel there's a considerable drop-off from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who pitched last night, to Shoemaker here at the top of the Jays rotation and I look for the Rays to take advantage on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-24-20 | Angels v. A's -130 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 86 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Andrew Heaney gets the nod for the Angels. He's your prototypical middle of the road big league starter. If anything he's regressed since turning in a somewhat impressive rookie campaign back in 2015. He made 18 starts last season and finished with an ERA just a shade under five at 4.91. His strikeouts per nine innings were up, but so were his walks. Here, he faces an A's club that has to like the setup of this truncated MLB season, where anything can and probably will happen. Heaney went up against the A's twice last season, pitching well against them late in the year after an awful performance against them in June. Frankie Montas has quietly settled in over the last two seasons, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP two years ago before a tremendous 16-start run last year, recording a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings were up significantly over the year previous while his walks were slightly down. Everything points to Montas continuing his upswing here in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The Angels always get some love from bettors thanks to the presence of Mike Trout in the order but outside of his all-world talent, there's not a lot to get excited about. I like the short price being offered with an optimistic A's club here in the opener. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Rangers v. White Sox -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox are surging right now and I believe they're being undervalued considerably on Saturday night against Texas. Kolby Allard will take the ball for the Rangers. This will be his fourth consecutive start and he has labored through his first three, giving up 14 hits and 11 earned runs while walking eight in 15 innings of work. He has yet to work a full six innings. Veteran Ivan Nova will counter for Chicago. He has recorded wins in each of his last three starts. Nova's ERA sat around six at the end of June but he has steadily improved since, with that number now at 4.47. You would have to go back seven starts to find the last time he gave up more than two earned runs in an outing. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers didn't exactly take care of business to open this homestand, dropping two of three games against the Reds. They did, however, salvage the finale of that series and I look for them to notch another victory on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago travels from San Francisco, where it dropped two of three games as well. The Cubs are a miserable 19-29 on the road this season. Kyle Hendricks is a losing pitcher on a winning team, having gone 7-8 with a 3.41 ERA this season. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Note that Chicago is giving Hendricks just north of two runs per game when he takes the ball on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Milwaukee. He returned from a 'dead arm' to throw four somewhat effective innings against Arizona last time out. In 10 1/3 innings pitched at Miller Park this season he has recorded a terrific 0.87 WHIP. Also note that Gonzalez turned in one of his best outings of the season against the Cubs, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball back in May. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this series, with their pitching really letting them down, allowing 20 runs in those two losses. I believe the price is reasonable to back the Brewers to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin started the season a perfect 2-0 but has gone a miserable 1-10 since. He got rocked in his last start in Arizona but has actually pitched well here at home recently, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts at Miller Park, covering a span of 10 innings. Lucas Sims will counter for the Reds. He has posted solid numbers this season but we're talking about a very small sample size as he has worked just 9 2/3 innings. The Brewers do continue to perform well offensively, having plated 54 runs over their last eight games, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. Motivation will be high for the Rays to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Red Sox at home on Wednesday afternoon. I like their chances to do just that with Charlie Morton on the hill. Morton has quietly put together an 11-3 record and ever since his ERA dipped below 3.00 back on April 27th against these same Red Sox, it has never surpassed that number again, currently standing at 2.61. Red Sox starter David Price has been solid as well, although his numbers don't match those of Morton. I do get the sense that Price is going through a bit of a lull, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. Last time out he gave up six earned runs in a loss in Baltimore. The Rays entered this game with a two-game edge over the Red Sox but that has disappeared. Look for them to salvage the final game of the series on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're laying a reasonable number with the Brewers here, largely due to the solid numbers Tanner Roark has posted for the Reds this season. With that being said, we faded Roark in his last start and were rewarded with a 7-4 Cardinals win, even though he did hold his own for five innings before the bullpen coughed it up. Roark has now been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last five starts, giving up a grand total of nine dingers over that stretch. Kyle Davies will counter for Milwaukee. He brings excellent form to the table, having allowed just two earned runs on 17 hits over 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts. Davies didn't fare well the last time he faced the Reds back in May but did keep them at bay in his first start against them, and the Brew Crew have still managed to win both of this starts versus Cincinnati this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox -110 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The White Sox aren't being given much respect by the oddsmakers here and it's largely due to the presence of Ivan Nova on the mound. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. With that being said, despite his ERA north of seven, the Sox have still managed to go an even 4-4 when he takes the ball at home this season. It's also worth noting that Nova has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last nine outings. Trevor Richards is an 11-game loser for the Marlins and you would have to go back five starts to find the last time he worked into the sixth inning. The Marlins last victory with Richards on the hill came way back on June 2nd in San Diego. Chicago did lose yesterday's series finale against the Rays, but still managed to win that series. Meanwhile, the Marlins have to travel all the way from Los Angeles where they were swept by the Dodgers. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Twins as they look to build off the momentum from yesterday's win, which salvaged a four-game split against the A's. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He has shown a pretty strong home-road dichotomy, posting an ERA well north of five on the road. The Twins are one of the best teams in baseball and can obviously score with anyone, even the Yankees. Fresh off yesterday's eight-run outburst I do look for them to get to Sabathia here. Martin Perez has cooled somewhat following his red hot start to the season but he checks in having worked at least six innings in three straight starts and will be looking to earn his ninth victory of the season. It's worth noting that the Twins actually lead the league in slugging, OPS and home runs and sit second in team batting average. The Yankees rank no higher than fourth in any of those categories. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Marlins +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I can't ignore the value being offered with the underdog Marlins here as they catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot. While Miami is 22 games under .500 on the season, it has actually gone a respectable 26-27 over its last 53 games. The Marlins are coming off a series with over the Padres while the Dodgers return home after a roller-coaster series in Philadelphia that saw a total of 57 runs scored. Marlins starter Zac Gallen has had an up and down start to his big league career but comes in off five days' rest and has fared alright in two previous road starts, allowing three earned runs while posting an 8:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over seven innings of work (the Marlins split those two games winning in St. Louis but losing in Washington). Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for Los Angeles. He has obviously been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and checks in sporting a perfect 9-0 team record here at Dodger Stadium. Ryu owns a 2-1 team record in three career starts against the Marlins, however he hasn't faced them since 2017 and prior to that his other two outings against them came way back in 2013. I simply feel the Dodgers could be in for a bit of a letdown off back-to-back series' three time zones away in Boston and Philadelphia and the price doesn't properly reflect probability in this particular situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 7-10 | Win | 120 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Milwaukee at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Brewers took the opening game of this series last night, cooling off the D'Backs previously red hot bats in the process. I do look for Arizona to bounce back on Friday, however, as they look to tee off on Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin. The Brewers have won just five times in 17 games with Chacin on the hill this season. He has posted a 6.38 ERA on the road and to make matters worse, the Brew Crew have given him just over two runs per start to work with on the highway. D'Backs starter Taylor Clarke hasn't impressed by any means. In fact, he also owns an ERA north of six at home. With that being said, Arizona has managed to go just one game under .500 in his nine starts this season and the Snakes are giving him an incredible seven runs of support to work with per start. Milwaukee has won three games in a row but remains five games under .500 on the road this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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07-18-19 | A's +127 v. Twins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Despite his 9-3 record and 3.61 ERA bettors aren't buying into A's journeyman starter Mike Fiers. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month or so, allowing a grand total of four earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 33 innings of work. His road numbers aren't great but he certainly hasn't struggled away from home recently, working at least six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last four road outings. In his last start here in Minnesota, the A's won by a 6-2 score last August. Kyle Gibson will counter for the Twins. He's had an up and down season and checks in on a downward trend, having allowed 13 earned runs on 24 hits over his last five starts, covering a span of just 22 innings. The A's can obviously slug with the best of them and I'm confident they'll be able to get to Gibson tonight. This is a classic case of two clubs heading in opposite directions and I look for the A's to stay red hot, at least in the opener of this series. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-18-19 | Cardinals +113 v. Reds | 7-4 | Win | 113 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel the wrong team is favored in this matchup as the Cardinals look to build off a series win over the Pirates when they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He has quietly put together an 8-4 record this season with the Cardinals winning nine of his last 10 starts overall. He has worked at least six innings in nine of his last 11 trips to the hill. Tanner Roark will counter for the Reds. They've won just three of his nine home starts this season. Most concerning is the fact that Roark has allowed eight home runs in his last four outings, even if his most recent came at Coors Field. Both pitchers have fared well against tonight's opponent so not much to look at from that standpoint. I simply feel that the Cardinals have a little more upside and are being undervalued due to their losing road record this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -120 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Pittsburgh at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. I like the bounce back spot for the Cardinals this afternoon as they send Daniel Ponce de Leon to the hill against Chris Archer. Ponce de Leon has worked 17 2/3 innings at home this season, posting a sparkling 1.02 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. He was a hard luck loser last time out as he lasted into the seventh inning giving up just one earned run on three hits but the Cards fell by a 4-2 score against the D'Backs. Pirates starter Chris Archer has pitched a little better lately but as a whole has been a train wreck on the road this season where he is winless in seven starts, posting an ERA well north of seven. The Pirates have won just four of his 10 daytime starts this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |