Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While this looks like a fine starting pitching matchup at first glance, a deeper look leads me to believe we could be in for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Phillies are actually coming off a low-scoring series against the Dodgers despite the fact that weather conditions certainly favored the hitters with heat, high humidity and the wind blowing out. That remains the case on Friday. Tyler Mahle has been pitching well for the Reds lately. However, here he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest after working seven innings last time out. He's allowed just three home runs in 65 2/3 innings of work on the road this season but 15 in 58 innings pitched at home. Tonight, I would anticipate Citizens Bank Park playing a lot more like Great American Ballpark than usual due to the weather conditions. Mahle has faced the Phillies twice previously, allowing five earned runs including three home runs in just six innings. The Reds bullpen has held up well lately but can it really be trusted? Cincinnati's relief corps enters this game sporting a 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 19 saves converted but 17 blown in night games this season. Zack Wheeler is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young contender but like Mahle, is in a bit of a tough spot here as he makes his third straight start on four days' rest. When you consider he's pitched at least into the eighth inning in each of his last two outings you can understand why his arm might not have quite as much life in it on Friday. We actually won with Wheeler in his last start as he tossed a complete game shutout against the Mets. Here, however, he'll face a Reds club that is heating up having scored 18 runs in their last two games and it's worth noting that Wheeler is by no means invincible as he had allowed seven earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his two previous starts before last Sunday's stellar outing. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been particularly sharp at home this season, recording a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In night games it has converted 17 saves while blowing 12. Take the over (9*). |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants just wrapped up a two-game sweep of the lowly D'Backs last night as they pounded away on an awful Arizona pitching staff. I expect they'll find the going a little tougher on Thursday as they face Rockies All-Star starter German Marquez. Meanwhile, the Rockies offense was non-existent in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Astros (they scored a grand total of one run). Expect more of the same against Giants improving young starter Logan Webb. Marquez got roughed up by the Giants in three starts earlier this season, but all three came before the second week of May, when the veteran right-hander was struggling mightily out of the gate. He's settled down since and enters this start sporting a 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 nighttime starts this season. Over his last two outings he's allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12 innings of work. Speaking to his consistency, he has worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. I like the fact that he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the second consecutive start here. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rockies bullpen that is always a disaster waiting to happen, having posted a collective ERA north of five and a WHIP hovering around 1.50. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's quietly been one of the best pitchers on the Giants elite staff this season. Like Marquez, Webb got off to a shaky start this season and had a couple of rough early outings against these same Rockies. However, since giving up six earned runs in a start against Colorado back on May 5th, Webb has allowed two earned runs or less in nine consecutive outings. He's been outstanding here at home this season, posting a stellar 1.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts with all six staying 'under' the total. He's lasted six innings in each of his last three starts and like Marquez, has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. While the Giants bullpen has held up well, it's certainly worth noting that they haven't had an off day since back on July 26th. I'm not interested in testing the waters with that relief corps here, so we'll instead play the first five innings only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Blue Jays doing most of the heavy lifting. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Jose Berrios will make his third start with his new team. He's been lights out in the first two, allowing just one earned run while striking out 13 in 12 innings of work. He seemed to figure out the Angels lineup pretty well the last time he faced them in July (as a member of the Twins), allowing just two unearned runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss. Note that Berrios has been at his best at night this season, recording a 2.26 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 20 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that has been pitching well lately, recording a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over their last seven games. They've converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his fourth start since July 19th and first in over a week so there are no real concerns of a tired arm here. Note that Ohtani has posted a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. While the Angels bullpen has struggled all season, the good news is Ohtani has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts so we may not need a great deal of help from the Los Angeles relief corps here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -154 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. While the Yankees wrapped up a series win in Kansas City yesterday the White Sox dropped a second straight game against the Twins. Here, I look for Chicago to rebound as it takes part in the 'Field of Dreams Game ' in Iowa. Andrew Heaney will get his third start as a member of the Yankees. The first two haven't gone particularly well as he's been tagged for eight earned runs including five home runs in 10 innings of work. Now he faces a White Sox lineup that loves hitting lefties and should be in a foul mood off yesterday's shutout loss. Note that Heaney has posted a 4.89 ERA in eight road starts this season with that number rising above five in nighttime outings. Given that he averages just a shade over five innings per start, the Yankees bullpen will undoubtedly be pressed into action. Keep in mind, the Yanks haven't had a day off since July 26th so we're talking about an overworked 'pen, a stark contrast to that of the White Sox, which I'll get to in a moment. Lance Lynn had his start pushed back a day for the White Sox. That's not a bad thing as he was going to have to pitch on four days' rest yesterday, a situation he's struggled in this season. Now he gets to pitch on full rest and does so away from home where he has posted a stellar 1.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts this season with the Sox winning seven of those games. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that I've been highlighting for weeks now has logged among the lowest total innings in all of baseball. This is a strong relief corps that should be in great shape down the stretch and I like their chances of taking care of the Yankees here. Take Chicago (5*). |
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08-12-21 | Tigers v. Orioles -136 | 6-4 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers have been playing better baseball lately and have taken the first two games in this series. They're still going nowhere though, as they sit well out of playoff contention. Here, they'll be looking forward to heading home for a six-game homestand and I look for them to fall short in their attempt at wrapping up a series sweep in Baltimore on Thursdsay. Matt Manning is most definitely the weakest link in the Tigers rotation. It doesn't get much worse than a 9.13 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in five road starts this season with the Tigers losing all five of those games. The jury is still out as to whether Manning is capable of being a big league starter as he's topped out at four strikeouts in nine starts this season, recording a disappointing 23:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 42 2/3 innings pitched. With Manning averaging just 4.5 innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers awful bullpen in this one. Detroit's 'pen has posted an ERA well north of five away from home this season and will likely be 'pitching from behind' in this one. John Means has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for the Orioles. He's been outstanding in daytime starts this season, posting a 2.51 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in eight outings. Over his last two trips to the hill he's allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings, posting an 11:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio along the way. That included a start against these same Tigers on July 31st as he gave up only one earned run over six innings in a 5-2 win. The less said about the Orioles bullpen the better but I do expect them to be pitching with a large enough lead that they shouldn't play a major factor in the outcome of this contest. Take Baltimore (5*). |
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08-11-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Last night's game between these two teams found its way 'over' the total thanks to extra innings. Tonight, I'm anticipating a more comfortable victory for 'over' backers. Spencer Howard gets the nod for Texas. He was the key piece coming back to the Rangers in the Kyle Gibson deal. While Howard has the potential to be a quality starter in the Rangers rotation for years to come, in the short-term he's likely to continue to struggle. Howard hasn't made it beyond the fourth inning in any of his eight starts this season. He made six starts during his rookie season a year ago and lasted five innings just once. That spells trouble as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and six blown entering last night's action. While they did eventually record a save in last night's game that was only after coughing up the lead in the ninth inning (the Mariners probably should have won the game in walk-off fashion as they loaded the bases with no outs) and then also giving up a run in the 10th. Tyler Anderson will counter for Seattle. While he's pitched reasonably well this season, I do think the Rangers can scratch together enough offense against him to help this one 'over' the total. Note that Anderson will be making his home debut for the Mariners after coming over prior to the trade deadline. The last time he pitched here at T-Mobile Park he was tagged for four earned runs in just four innings in a start last September. The Rangers have been a better offensive club against southpaws this season, averaging just shy of four runs per game. Take the over (7*). |
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08-11-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 10 | 10-0 | Push | 0 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the second game of yesterday's double-header between these two teams and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Interestingly, that game last night featured just one total run after five innings (in a seven-inning game) but still found its way 'over' the total of 8.5. Weather conditions are once again expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday night with the wind strongly blowing out to right-center field. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. He'll be starting on just four days' rest for the first time since April on Wednesday. Note that he's allowed a home run in each of his last two starts. That's after giving up a grand total of just two home runs in his previous 16 outings. I'll also point out that he has topped out at six strikeouts in his last three starts. That's the longest such streak of the season where he didn't record more than seven strikeouts. Behind Burnes is a Brewers bullpen that has hit the wall a little bit lately, posting a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven contests with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. He's been a train wreck lately, allowing 16 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of only 11 1/3 innings. He's given up at least one home run in seven straight starts and allowed a whopping three in his most recent outing. The Brewers will be getting their fourth look at Arrieta this season, having scored a whopping 28 runs in those previous three contests. The Cubs bullpen simply isn't the same unit is was a few weeks ago. Chicago's relief corps has posted a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with only one converted save over its last seven games. Take the over (9*). |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's put up or shut up time for the Red Sox. They lost the opener of this important three-game series against the team they're looking up at in the A.L. East standings. I expect them to answer back on Wednesday night. Josh Fleming will get the start for the Rays. It could be argued that he's been the weak link in the Rays rotation this season as they've only managed to go 5-5 in his 10 outings (that's telling considering they're 24 games over .500 overall). Fleming has made five road starts with the Rays winning only two of those games as he's posted a 6.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. While the Red Sox have struggled at times against left-handed pitching this season they've never had any trouble with Fleming, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits in just 9 1/3 innings. That's despite the fact that he's yet to make a start here at Fenway Park, where the weather conditions are expected to be favorable for the hitters again on Wednesday night. Nathan Eovaldi counters for Boston. He's been awful over his last two starts but both of those came on the road. He's been a different pitcher here at home where he's posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Sox winning seven of his 13 starts this season. Note that over his last four home outings he has allowed just two earned runs in 29 innings of work. Eovaldi was roughed up by the Rays in his last start against them less than two weeks ago but that was in St. Petersburg. The last time he faced them here in Boston he allowed just one earned run in seven innings in a 9-2 victory back in April. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox bullpen that coughed one up last night but has generally been solid in night games this season, recording a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 28 converted saves and only 10 blown. Boston's relief corps has converted 16 of 23 save opportunities at home this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Premier O/U Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in last night's series-opener but that was to be expected with Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola toeing the rubber. Here, we can anticipate a much different story to unfold. David Price will get the start for Los Angeles. After giving up two home runs in his most recent start (he's allowed two home runs in two of his last three outings) I won't be surprised if he gets caught trying to be a little 'too perfect' on Wednesday and the Phillies certainly have a lineup capable of punishing him for that. Note that Price has posted a 4.70 ERA over his last three outings and has topped out at four strikeouts in seven of his eight starts this season - clearly a shell of his former self. While he's pitched well in his career against Philadelphia, he hasn't faced the Phils since 2018. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest, noting the last time he did that he allowed three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 9-6 loss to the lowly Rockies. The Dodgers bullpen will likely get plenty of work with Price averaging just a shade over four innings per start on the road this season. That relief corps has struggled a bit on the road this season, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 10 blown (entering last night's action). Kyle Gibson will get his third start as a member of the Phillies and will pitch on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. While he's pitched well in his last two outings, those came against the Pirates and Mets. He'll be taking a step up in class here, noting that he was tagged for five earned runs including three home runs over just five innings in his last start against the Dodgers last August. Behind Gibson is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with 14 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Finally, I'll note that weather conditions are expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday (as if often the case this time of year in Philadelphia) with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-21 | White Sox -160 v. Twins | 0-1 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Expect the White Sox to bounce back after they saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last night. Impressive rookie Griffin Jax kept the Twins in the game long enough for them to rally for a 4-3 victory on Tuesday but here, they aren't likely to be so fortunate with another rookie, Bailey Ober, taking the ball. Ober will be facing the White Sox for the fifth time this season. He's pitched well in just one of his previous four outings against them. In the other three starts he's been tagged for 14 hits and 12 earned runs including six home runs in only 12 1/3 innings of work. With Ober averaging just 4.5 innings per start at home this season, the White Sox should see plenty of a Twins bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with only 12 saves converted and eight blown at home this season. We're talking about an overworked relief corps that hasn't had a day off in more than a week. Chicago will counter with Lance Lynn. The Sox have won five of his last six starts with the lone loss coming against these same Twins. Keep in mind, he did pitch well in that start against Minnesota and has generally owned the Twins this season, allowing only four earned runs in 24 innings of work. Lynn checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts this season with Chicago winning five of those games. Better still, he has posted a sparkling 1.38 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in nine daytime starts with Chicago winning six of those contests. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has recorded a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown in day games this season. Take Chicago (5*). |
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08-10-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -203 | 5-4 | Loss | -203 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being asked to pay a steep price to back the Mariners on Tuesday but I believe it could be even higher. It's crunch time for Seattle coming off a tough series in the Bronx and it can ill afford to drop games against the lowly Rangers this week if it wants to stay in the A.L. playoff picture. I like the M's to at the very least get this series off to a winning start on Tuesday. Kolby Allard will take the ball for the Rangers. The Rangers have won just once in his 12 starts this season. He checks in sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road. In two previous starts against the Mariners this season he's been tagged for eight earned runs, including three home runs, in just seven innings of work. Allard isn't likely to get much help from the Rangers bullpen either. They've posted a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just six saves converted and six blown on the road this season. Rookie Logan Gilbert will counter for Seattle. While his personal results have been mixed, the Mariners have gone 11-3 in his 14 starts and I like the fact that he's posted an impressive 1.10 WHIP on the season. He labored through 5 2/3 innings against the Rangers in Texas last week but the Mariners still managed to win that game 9-5. Here, he catches Texas having gone 30 games under .500 on the road, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 runs per game. Gilbert generally has a short leash so we could see plenty from the Mariners bullpen in this one and that's not a bad thing. Their relief corps has posted a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only seven blown here at home this season. Take Seattle (4*). |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros -168 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros will be happy to face a team other than the Minnesota Twins after a rocky four-game series from Thursday-Sunday. Following an off day on Monday, I look for Houston to get back on track as it welcomes the Rockies for the opener of a quick two-game set on Tuesday. Jon Gray will take the ball for Colorado. He's been a much better pitcher at home compared to on the road this season, noting that he has posted a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in nine outings away from home with the Rockies winning only two of those games. It's also worth mentioning that he'll be making his fourth start since July 25th as each of his last two starts were made on just four days' rest. He allowed eight hits in 6 2/3 innings last time out, his highest hit total allowed since back on May 17th. Gray did handle the Astros in his lone previous start against them this season but that came at home back in April, at a time when Houston was struggling at the plate having scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games. With Gray averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty of a bad Rockies bullpen that owns a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Jake Odorizzi will counter for Houston. He hasn't pitched well lately, there's no denying that. He's also faced a tough slate of starts lately, with three of his last four outings coming on the road against the White Sox, Mariners and Dodgers. In his last two home starts he's posted a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowed five earned runs without giving up a single home run in 10 2/3 innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Rockies for the first time in his career on Tuesday. Behind Odorizzi is a solid Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. That relief corps has been lights out lately, recording a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take Houston (6*). |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros had a tough time in a four-game series against the Twins from Thursday-Sunday, scoring only 16 runs in dropping three of four contests. Perhaps that letdown was to be expected after a tough road trip that took them through Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, during which they enjoyed plenty of offensive success. Following a much-needed off day on Monday, I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Rockies on Tuesday, helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Jon Gray will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He's quite simply been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in five of his nine outings. Here, he's in a bit of a tough spot as he makes his fourth start since July 25th. We saw some signs of wear in his most recent start as he was tagged for eight hits in six innings - his highest hit total allowed since May 17th. Gray has had previous success against the Astros but has never faced them here in Houston. Behind Gray is an awful Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Over their last seven games they've recorded an ERA north of six. Jake Odorizzi will look to right the ship as he takes the ball for the Astros. He allowed a whopping four home runs in his most recent start and has been tagged for eight long balls in total in his last four outings. The 'over' has cashed in four of his six home starts as he's recorded a 5.56 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While I do think he can turn things around to a certain extent in this start, it's highly unlikely that he'll shut the Rockies offense down completely. Despite Colorado's miserable road record this season, it has still managed to average north of three runs per game away from Coors Field and I believe that might be all we need from them to help this one 'over' the total. The Astros have a fine bullpen but I will point out that for whatever reason they've struggled in interleague play, posting a collective 6.05 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of only 44 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night (wind is expected to be blowing out to center field) I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Brewers and Cubs. Aaron Ashby will get his second start of the season for Milwaukee. His first came against Chicago as well and it didn't go swimmingly. Ashby was tagged for seven runs, four of them earned, and didn't manage to get out of the first inning. While it's tough to envision this start going any worse, it is certainly worth noting that the Cubs have been a better offensive club both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. While they're certainly not the same team they were pre-deadline, I still believe they're capable of a breakout offensive performance here and will certainly be eager to take their frustrations out on the Brewers pitching staff after facing a tough slate of starters in recent days. Behind Ashby is a Brewers bullpen that enters Tuesday's action sporting a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and three blown. They've only managed to convert 11-of-20 save opportunities on the road this season. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. After a strong start to the season he's wobbled a little lately, allowing 17 hits in 12 innings over his last two starts. Note that Mills has allowed a home run in each of his last three outings here at Wrigley Field and again, with ideal hitting conditions on Tuesday we could certainly see Mills fall victim to a long ball or two. The Brewers will be getting their fourth look at Mills going back to last August and the lone previous time they faced him this season, they chased him after four innings but not before he gave up a pair of earned runs including a home run, walked three and didn't strike out a single batter. The Cubs bullpen, like the Brewers, has struggled lately, recording a collective 5.60 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over its last seven games. While Chicago's relief corps has been solid at home this season, we're not talking about the same group that we were before the trade deadline. Take the over (8*). |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Padres yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they open a series against the Marlins on Monday night. Zach Thompson will take the ball for Miami. Unfortunately, he's in a tough spot here, making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest. The Marlins are winless in his four road starts this season, where he's averaged just a shade over four innings per start. That spells trouble for an overworked Marlins bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 29th. Note that Thompson has topped out at three strikeouts or less in three of his last four starts after posting six or more K's in four of his first five outings. Here, he'll be facing the Padres for the second time this season after suffering a 5-2 loss against them at home back on July 23rd. He lasted only five innings in that start, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out only three and walking one. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. We actually cashed a ticket fading him in his most recent start in Oakland. That was no fault of his, however, as he allowed only one earned run on two hits over six innings. Now Musgrove is back home where he owns a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season. He faced the Marlins once this season, allowing two earned runs over six innings, also matched up against Thompson in that 5-2 win back on July 23rd. Like the Marlins 'pen, the Padres bullpen has also been overworked this season. However, they've still managed to pitch well, recording a collective 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown here at home. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Reds 'over' yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they open a road trip in Cleveland on Monday. First, it's worth noting that the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center field in this one, ideal conditions for the bats at Progressive Field. Luis Castillo will take the ball for the Reds. While he has certainly turned things around with a terrific stretch of performances, this is by no means an ideal spot as he starts on just four days' rest for the third consecutive outing. While the Indians struggled against Castillo in their first look at him back in 2019, they've figured him out since, scoring seven earned runs in just nine innings against him since last season, including a 9-2 victory here in Cleveland back in May. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that really struggled in night games this season, posting a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 16 blown. Sam Hentges will get a spot start for the Indians. He's yet to find much success at the big league level and the jury is still out as to whether he's capable of rounding into a major league starter. In three home starts this season, the left-hander has recorded an ugly 9.31 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. That's despite tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings here in his big league debut back in mid-May. Hentges is averaging just under 3 2/3 innings per start and now faces a Reds club that has averaged a whopping seven runs per game over the last week. While the Indians bullpen has been solid this season, it has struggled in interleague play, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only three saves converted and four blown in 56 2/3 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Dodgers bounced back from a disappointing extra innings loss on Friday with a come-from-behind 5-3 victory last night. I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Sunday as they wrap up the series win in convincing fashion. Reid Detmers will get a second straight turn in the rotation for the Angels despite pitching poorly in his big league debut. Detmers was actually favored in that start, at home against the A's, but ultimately lost the game by a lopsided 8-3 score. He gave up six hits and six earned runs, including two home runs, while striking out only two and walking two over 4 1/3 innings. It's hard to envision him faring much better against an even tougher opponent here. While the Angels bullpen has pitched better lately, this is by no means an ideal spot as they've posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. To make matters worse, the Halos inexplicably haven't had a day off since way back on July 21st. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler. All he's done in 13 home starts this season is post a 2.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 0.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three daytime outings with the Dodgers winning all three of those games. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been effective at home this season, recording a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only nine blown (entering last night's action). Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Twins v. Astros -175 | 7-5 | Loss | -175 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. After inexplicably dropping the first two games in this series, the Astros cruised to a 4-0 victory last night. I expect them to keep that positive momentum building with another win on Sunday afternoon. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the visiting Twins. He's been awful on the road this season, recording a 5.95 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with the Twins losing eight of his 12 starts. Last time out he was tagged for five earned runs over five innings in Cincinnati but was bailed out by his offense against a bad Reds bullpen. He isn't likely to be so fortunate here. Behind Maeda is a weak Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP away from home this season. Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has to be feeling pretty good about himself after tossing 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers (on the road no less) last time out. Now he's back at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. Better still, he's posted a 2.85 ERA in seven daytime outings with the Astros winning four of those games. Houston's bullpen has been terrific lately and has been at its best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take Houston (6*). |
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08-08-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series all the way with the first three games totaling 11, 10 and 14 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Bryse Wilson will get a third straight turn in the rotation for the Pirates. He's held up alright over his last couple of outings, allowing only one earned run in eight innings. However, he's struck out only two while walking three so it's not as if he's really fooling anyone. In three daytime starts this season he owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP and faces a Reds club that has plated 46 runs over its last six games. With Wilson averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.03 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action) and hasn't had a day off since July 26th. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. He has struggled all season at Great American Ballpark, posting a 6.18 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. With Mahle averaging just a shade over five innings per start at home the Reds bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP here in Cincinnati (entering last night's action) should be pressed into action once again. Take the over (6*). |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies -162 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and with their ace on the hill on Sunday afternoon, I look for them to complete the sweep of the reeling Mets. New York has lost eight of its last 10 games overall but still sits just 1.5 games back of the division-leading Phillies entering Sunday's series-finale. So this is obviously not a time for the Phils to let their guard down despite having posted six straight victories. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. He's in an absolutely miserable spot here as he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. He has clearly hit the wall over the last month or so, allowing a whopping 20 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 15 innings. Worst of all, he's been tagged for seven home runs over his last three outings. It all adds up to trouble as he faces a red hot Phillies lineup that has already seen him twice this season. Behind Walker is a Mets bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 22nd and has struggled on the road all season, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He remains one of the most undervalued starters in baseball as far as I'm concerned. All he's done at home is post a 2.22 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with the Phillies winning eight of his 13 starts. Better still, he has posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in eight daytime outings with the Phillies winning six of those contests. The Phillies bullpen has had its share of issues this season but has held up well lately, recording four saves while blowing only one over their last eight games. Take Philadelphia (7*). |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians -133 | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Indians in the opener of this series last night and we'll come right back with them on Saturday as well. The Tigers will hand the ball to Tyler Anderson who is by no means a strong candidate to work deep into this ball game. He's yet to last beyond the fourth inning in any of his six starts this season. That spells trouble as the Detroit bullpen has not been good on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown. Eli Morgan gets the nod for Cleveland. He looked like a completely different pitcher last time out, lasting a career-high six innings, allowing just five hits and two earned runs while striking out nine and walking one against a quality Blue Jays lineup. Morgan has been consistent if nothing else, working at least five innings and allowing three earned runs or less in four straight starts. Behind Morgan is an Indians bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 10 saves converted and five blown at home this season. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -190 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. It was a tough roll of the dice with the Astros last night as they fell by a 5-4 score in extra innings, dropping their second straight game against the lowly Twins, at home no less. I do expect them to bounce back on Saturday. To say that Houston has had Twins starter Michael Pineda's number would be an understatement. The Astros last three games against the right-hander have gone their way by scores of 10-4, 11-0 and 14-3 as they plated 12 earned runs over 14 1/3 innings. Note that the Twins have won just two of Pineda's five road starts this season as he's posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's averaging less than five innings per start away from home which opens the door for plenty of work from a Minnesota bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season. Luis Garcia will get the start for Houston. He'll be happy to be back home after making his last two starts on the road (he struggled in starts in Seattle and San Francisco). Note that he's been a different pitcher here in Houston, recording a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Astros winning six of his nine outings. Behind Garcia is an Astros bullpen that tossed three hitless innings before dropping the game in extras last night. Houston relievers have posted a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action), converting 11 saves while blowing five. Take Houston (5*). |
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08-07-21 | White Sox -187 v. Cubs | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox over the Cubs at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox survived in extra innings yesterday after blowing a late 4-1 lead against the Cubs. Their bullpen did cough another one up but I still expect good things from this relief corps, which has logged some of the fewest innings in all of baseball. Carlos Rodon gets the start for the White Sox. While he has struggled in his last couple of outings, he has been terrific in general on the road this season, recording a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with the Sox winning six of his 10 starts. While his most recent start was made on just four days' rest, here he gets to take the ball on seven days' rest. Adbert Alzolay will counter for the Cubs. He has seemingly hit the wall, having allowed 17 earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 26 innings of work. Given he averages just five innings per start at home this season we should see plenty of a suddenly reeling Cubs bullpen that has been overworked lately and owns a collective ERA around seven over their last seven games. Take the White Sox (5*). |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'over' in Mariners starter Chris Flexen's most recent outing. He actually pitched well in that game, allowing only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Rays. Road success hasn't been the norm for Flexen this season, however, as he's posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts away from home. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 in his eight previous road starts. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has already coughed up the first two games in this series and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 13 blown away from home this season. With Flexen averaging just 5.6 innings per start on the road this season, we should see plenty of the M's relief corps today. Andrew Heaney will counter for New York. His Yankees debut did not go well at all as he was lit up for four home runs (all four were solo shots so the damage could have been worse) in just four innings of work against the Orioles. Now he makes a second straight start on just four days' rest and faces a familiar Mariners lineup (from his days with the Angels in the A.L. West) that has torched him for eight earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings this season. Heaney didn't issue a walk in his last start but command has been an issue for the left-hander. After giving up those four home runs last time out, look for him to try to be a little too perfect today and that could lead to plenty of Mariners base-runners. With the Yankees having not had a day off since July 26th, their bullpen comes in overworked. Keep in mind, this is a bullpen that has posted a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown at home (entering last night's action), with that ERA rising to 4.50 in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -190 | 4-3 | Loss | -190 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Dodgers over the Angels at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I feel we're being asked to lay a very reasonable price with the Dodgers in this one. The Angels are coming off a series in win Texas, including a 5-0 victory yesterday but I'm not convinced they'll be able to keep it rolling at Chavez Ravine on Friday night. Patrick Sandoval takes the ball for the Angels. He's pitched about as well as you could expect over his last four starts but the Angels still managed to win just one of those games. He comes off a start in which he issued six walks and while he hasn't allowed a single home run in his last two starts, it's worth noting that he's yet to go three consecutive starts without giving up a long ball this season. The Dodgers had little trouble against Sandoval in two games against him last season and I'm confident they can get to him here as well. David Price will counter for the Dodgers. He labored through his last two starts but as is often the case at this stage of his career, he'll have a short leash on Friday night. It's worth noting that he has posted a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in five home starts this season. The Dodgers bullpen got a much needed day off on Thursday and will have all hands on deck should it be called upon early in Friday's contest. The Dodgers are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, with Mookie Betts back healthy and Max Scherzer on board to bolster their starting rotation. Look for this confident bunch to take out their Los Angeles' rivals from Anaheim on Friday night. Take the Dodgers (5*). |
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08-06-21 | Twins v. Astros -189 | 5-4 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Astros were a no-show last night as they dropped a 5-3 decision to the Twins. Perhaps the letdown was to be expected as they were coming off a long road trip that included stops against the division-rival Mariners and two of baseball's best teams in the Giants and Dodgers. Here, I look for Houston to bounce back and while we're dealing with a high price, I believe it could be even higher. Bailey Ober will get the start for Minnesota. He's pitched reasonably well but isn't a strong candidate to work deep into the ball game, averaging just a shade over four innings per start on the road this season. That means we should see plenty of the Twins bullpen, which entered last night's action sporting a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. Worse still, they've recorded a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in night games this season. Zack Greinke will counter for Houston. He was awful in his most recent start, allowing a whopping four home runs in a loss to the Giants in San Francisco. He turned in a similarly poor performance earlier this season, giving up three home runs in a 7-2 loss against Detroit back in early April. He followed that up with one of his best outings of the season as he tossed eight shutout innings on the road against the Mariners. Greinke has posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 16 nighttime starts this season with the Astros winning 10 of those games. The Astros bullpen kept the Twins offense in check last night, entering that game with a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. Take Houston (5*). |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians did not enjoy a great road trip by any stretch of the imagination as they fell below the .500 mark with three consecutive losses in Toronto to close it out. I do look for them to get back in the win column on Friday, however, as they welcome the Detroit Tigers. Detroit just wrapped up a series win at home against the Red Sox yesterday, winning in blowout fashion in the series-finale. The Tigers will be hard-pressed to repeat that effort on Friday though as they hit the road where they check in 12 games under .500 on the season. Matt Manning will get another turn in the rotation for Detroit. He got lit up for nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the Tribe back in late June. While he's been marginally better since then, that's not saying much. Manning has topped out at four strikeouts while issuing multiple walks in five of eight big league starts. He checks in sporting an ugly 8.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four road starts with the Tigers losing all four of those games. Behind Manning is a Tigers bullpen that has not performed well on the road this season, recording a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown. Cal Quantrill will counter for Cleveland. He got off to a terrible start this season but has since righted the ship, allowing just three earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings of work. He's made seven home starts this season and has held up well, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Indians bullpen has been terrific at home this season, posting a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only five blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -150 v. Cubs | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox over the Cubs at 2:20 pm et on Friday. The White Sox ended their homestand with a thud, suffering back-to-back losses to the lowly Royals. They'll look to stop the bleeding as they make the short trip across town to face the Cubs on Friday afternoon. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the White Sox. He's allowed exactly seven earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Cubs but hasn't faced them in over two years and will obviously face a much different looking lineup here after the Cubs dealt away their core prior to the trade deadline. Lynn is having a tremendous season and owns a 2.39 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in seven road starts. He's in fine form right now, having issued a grand total of just two walks while striking out 17 over his last three outings, covering a span of 18 innings. The White Sox bullpen has a lot of upside right now as they entered last night's game having logged just 342 innings this season. They've been at their best on the road, recording a 3.80 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Kyle Hendricks will counter for the Cubs. He's coming off a terrific start against the Nationals but that start came on the road. He's been fairly inconsistent here at home, posting a 4.37 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at Wrigley Field. Note that he's topped out at four strikeouts in his last five starts overall. The wheels have come off for the Cubs bullpen lately and that certainly has something to do with departures prior to the trade deadline. They entered yesterday's game sporting an ugly 7.77 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the White Sox (6*). |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Thursday night in Chicago. Rookie Daniel Lynch gets the nod for the Royals. He's pitched reasonably well since returning to the big leagues in July but we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. He's recorded an ugly 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage this season, more than 7% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention his 30% line drive percentage - also around 7% north of the MLB average. The White Sox will be in bounce-back mode on Thursday and get their second look at Lynch this season after chasing him after scoring a whopping eight earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning back in early May. Behind Lynch is a Royals bullpen that has posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season. Veteran Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for the White Sox. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second straight start. The last time he did that he allowed six runs, three of them earned, and lasted only 2 2/3 innings against the Astros back in June. He enters this start having been blasted for six home runs over his last two outings, including three in a start against these same Royals last week. In nine starts against division opponents this season, Keuchel has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in seven of those games. The White Sox bullpen has logged just 342 innings this season so should be holding up well at this stage of the season. However, they've managed to convert just one save while blowing three in the last seven games alone and check in with a less than impressive 4.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. Take the over (7*). |
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08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Houston on Thursday night. The Twins were of course sellers prior to the trade deadline and are now left with a lineup that could probably fit in at triple-A ball. With that being said, they are coming off a high-scoring series against the Reds as they abused an awful Cincinnati bullpen. They're not likely to be so fortunate here, however, as the Astros 'pen has posted a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. It would certainly be understandable if the Astros lacked some focus at the plate in this one as they return home after a long road trip that included stops against the division rival Mariners in Seattle and two of the N.L.'s best teams in the Giants and Dodgers. Griffin Jax will take the ball for Minnesota. He was slated to start yesterday but that was pushed back a day allowing him to pitch on a full five days' rest here. Each of his first three big league starts have come on the road so he's battle-tested in a sense. After struggling in his first outing he's settled down to allow just two earned runs in nine innings over his last two starts. This will be just his fourth outing since July 3rd so his arm is fresh. I expect him to perhaps go deeper into this game than he has previously, having never gone more than five innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's faced the Twins twice during his career and has managed them well on both occasions, allowing just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. He'll be making his fourth straight start on at least five days' rest. While his command hasn't been there over his last couple of starts he's made up for it by allowing just four hits while striking out 10 in 11 innings of work. The Twins are a weaker offensive club both on the road and against left-handed pitching and I don't envision them inflicting much damage against Valdez here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Truth be told, the Blue Jays should have a good shot at toppling this total all on their own based on the way they're seeing the ball right now. They'll be facing Triston McKenzie for the first time on Thursday but I don't expect the right-hander to have any sort of advantage. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second time in his last three starts. He's been lit up for six home runs in 14 innings over his last three outings, allowing a whopping 17 hits and 13 earned runs along the way. He checks in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in eight away starts this season. Ross Stripling has held up well over his last couple of starts for Toronto but he's been anything but consistent this season. He enters this start having recorded a 6.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight nighttime starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Indians only managed to score one earned run off of him over five innings the last time they saw him back in May, but he had the advantage of pitching on 10 days' rest on that occasion. Here, he'll be making his third start since July 25th. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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08-05-21 | Red Sox -125 v. Tigers | 1-8 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Red Sox certainly haven't been playing their best baseball lately but I like the way this situation sets up for them on getaway day on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Boston will hand the ball to Martin Perez. While he's no Cy Young contender, he has been at his best in daytime starts this season, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with the Red Sox winning five of his seven outings. Perhaps better still, he has recorded a 3.40 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine road starts with the Sox winning five of those contests. Given the fact that Perez averages less than five innings per start this season he's likely to have a fairly short leash again here. That's not a big concern as the Red Sox bullpen has been solid on the road, posting a collective 3.77 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only eight blown (entering yesterday's action). Tarik Skubal has seemingly hit the wall for the Tigers as he's sailed past the 100-inning mark in just his second (and first full) big league season. Over his last two outings he has allowed nine earned runs and a whopping six home runs in just 10 2/3 innings of work. Note that Detroit has won just five of his 11 home starts this season. Skubal will be making his fourth start since July 20th with two of those outings coming on just four days' rest. Detroit's bullpen has struggled in day games all season, recording a collective 4.83 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 12 saves converted and eight blown. Take Boston (7*). |
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08-04-21 | Giants -172 v. Diamondbacks | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants fell to the lowly D'Backs last night but I believe Kevin Gausman is the right guy to have on the hill to get back in the win column on Wednesday. Gausman has actually struggled over his last few outings. Arizona would appear to be the perfect opponent to get back on track against, however, noting that the D'Backs haven't been able to figure the right-hander out since getting to him in his first career start against them back in 2018. In five starts against the Snakes since, Gausman has allowed a grand total of six earned runs on 19 hits over 32 innings of work. The Giants have won each of his last four starts against Arizona by a combined 28-9 margin. Note that Gausman's recent struggles have come at home. On the road he checks in with a sparkling 1.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with the Giants having won eight of his 12 starts. Behind Gausman is a San Francisco bullpen that has posted a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season. The Giants 'pen has converted 15 saves while blowing only seven against division opponents. Zac Gallen will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's coming off a fine outing against the Dodgers but now pitches on just four days' rest. The last time did that was on July 2nd, when he faced these same Giants and lasted only two innings in an 11-4 home loss. Arizona has won just once in Gallen's six home starts this season. The Giants will be seeing Gallen for the sixth time since the start of last season and have certainly had his number, scoring 11 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings in their last three looks at him. Even if the Giants somehow don't get to Gallen they should be able to tee off on a bad D'Backs bullpen that owns a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only nine saves converted and 10 blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (7*). |
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08-04-21 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one doesn't scream pitcher's duel with Matt Harvey taking on Jameson Taillon but I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in the Bronx nonetheless. Harvey has quietly turned things around, tossing 18 1/3 shutout innings over his last three starts. He hasn't issued a walk in his last two outings and hasn't given up a home runs since back on June 25th against Toronto - six starts ago. He's always had the Yankees number, most recently allowing just three earned runs on six hits over 12 innings against them since 2019, including one start this season resulting in a 4-2 Orioles victory. Jameson Taillon has posted a 3.26 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 11 home starts this season and enters this start in fine form having given up just one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 18 innings (you would have to go back four starts to find the last time he gave up a home run). We saw a slugfest in this same matchup last night with the Yankees bats finally waking up to score 13 runs. Keep in mind, they had scored four runs or less in 11 straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been a weaker offensive team both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. While both bullpens have been somewhat unreliable there's reason for optimism here noting that the O's relief corps has converted 13 saves while blowing only six on the road and the Yankees 'pen has posted 12 saves compared to only three blown against A.L. East opponents. Take the under (6*). |
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08-04-21 | Mariners v. Rays -153 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series with last night's setback coming in truly disappointing fashion as they actually outhit the Mariners but committed a couple of critical errors in the field to drop a 4-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back and salvage the series-finale on getaway day. Seattle will hand the ball to rookie Logan Gilbert. The Mariners have incredibly won each of Gilbert's last 11 outings but he has shown signs of tiring lately, allowing 15 hits and nine earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work over his last three outings. After facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi last night, the Rays will welcome the opportunity to take on the right-handed Gilbert on Wednesday, noting that they average 5.5 runs per game (0.5 runs per game above their season average) against righties this season. I've talked thorughout this series about the advantage the Rays should have in the later innings with the Mariners bullpen entering last night's action sporting a 4.90 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 14 saves converted but 12 blown on the road this season. By contrast, Tampa's 'pen has recorded a collective 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Josh Fleming gets the nod for the Rays in a starting role. He's been terrific at home this season, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts. Perhaps we'll finally see Tampa's offense wake up here, noting that it has produced a whopping 17 runs in Fleming's last two outings. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds -205 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Minnesota at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. |
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08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves have seen just three of their last nine games go 'over' the total and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in St. Louis. While Atlanta has hit better against left-handed pitching this season it has actually scored a grand total of just one run in its last two games against southpaw starters. Also note that it has already seen Cards newly-acquired left-hander Jon Lester twice this season and has managed to score just four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings with the 'under' cashing in both of those games. Lester enters this start on extended rest but will likely still have a short leash, noting that he averages less than five innings per start this season. The good news is that behind Lester is an improving Cardinals bullpen that comes off an off day on Monday and has posted a collective 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Max Fried gets the nod for Atlanta. He should benefit from facing a Cards club that averages just 3.6 runs per game against lefties this season. Fried already limited St. Louis to just one earned run over seven innings back in June. His road numbers aren't good this season but he enters this outing on a full five days' rest and has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three starts overall, with two of those coming on the road. Like the Cards 'pen, the Braves relief corps has been improving and checks in with a 4.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season, converting 13 saves while blowing only five. Take the under (10*). |
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08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Rays last night (but won with the first five innings 'over') as they fell behind early and could never recover in an eventual 8-2 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as they look to bounce back. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He has labored through his last four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in only 21 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season with the Mariners losing seven of those games. While he does average 5.9 innings per start on the road, he's lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last four outings. That spells trouble here as the Mariners bullpen entered last night's action with a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 14 saves converted and 12 blown on the road this season. Luis Patino will counter for Tampa Bay. He has to be feeling pretty good about himself after lasting a career-high six shutout innings in a 14-0 rout of the Yankees in his most recent start. Patino has made three home starts this season and has looked comfortable, posting a 0.71 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 12 2/3 innings of work. Patino isn't a strong candidate to work deep into the game again on Tuesday (he averages well below five innings per start this season) but that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been terrific here at home, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown this season. Finally, I think it's worth noting that the Rays rested two of their best players in last night's series-opener in Austin Meadows and Wander Franco. Meadows is 5-for-15 with three extra-base hits including two home runs and five RBI over his last four games while Franco has really been heating up, going 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits and four RBI over his last three contests. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays -153 | 8-2 | Loss | -153 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 7:10 pm et on Monday. This one sets up well for the Rays as they look to keep rolling on their current homestand. The Mariners will hand the ball to Chris Flexen on Monday. He's been a completely different pitcher on the road this season where he has posted a 5.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Given that he averages just 5.4 innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty from the Mariners bullpen, which has recorded a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 14 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). While I don't love the setup for Rays starter Michael Wacha in this one, i do expect him to have a short leash as usual and behind him is a tremendous Rays bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. On a positive note for Wacha, he has been terrific at Tropicana Field this season, posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with the Rays having won five of his six starts. Take Tampa Bay (5*). |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring start on Monday's showdown between the Mariners and Rays in St. Petersburg. Chris Flexen gets the start for Seattle. The wheels have come off for him over his last couple of starts as he's been tagged for nine earned runs on 15 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work. Note that he's recorded a grand total of only six strikeouts over his last three outings. He owns a 5.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in all seven of those contests. To make matters worse he faces a Rays club that he has faced once before, back in 2018, when he gave up five earned runs and exited after just three innings. Michael Wacha will counter for Tampa Bay. He's been terrific at home this season but I don't have a great deal of confidence in him as he pitches on just four days' rest here, and faces a Mariners club that has certainly had his number, facing him twice since 2019, including once already this season, scoring nine earned runs on 17 hits while drawing three walks and striking out only twice in just seven innings. It's worth noting that Wacha has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in just 14 1/3 innings when pitching on four days' rest this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid (for the most part) a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring weekend series' but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night in the Bronx. Baltimore will give the start to Jorge Lopez. He'll be facing the Yankees for the fifth time since the start of last season and he's had very minimal success against them. New York has scored 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings against Lopez this season. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last six starts, failing to last five innings in any of those outings. Andrew Heaney will get his first start since coming over to the Yankees prior to the trade deadline. This might be a tougher matchup than it appears as the Orioles enter this game hitting better against left-handed pitching and also overall in their last seven games. Heaney struggled at the best of times at home as a member of the Angels this season, posting a 5.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and now faces the pressure of pitching in the Bronx. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest for the first time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid factoring in a solid Yankees bullpen that has by no means been lately and owns a collective 3.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 12 converted saves and only three blown against division opponents this season. Take the first five innings over (7*). |
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08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Monday. The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep of the Royals as they made their triumphant return to Rogers Center in Toronto. Now I look for them to get off to a fine start against the Indians on Monday as well. Cleveland limps into this series off another series loss at the hands of the White Sox. Here, they'll hand the ball to Eli Morgan who gets another turn in the rotation despite his struggles. The Jays actually faced Morgan in his first big league start earlier this season, scoring six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Morgan hasn't been a whole lot better since, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last six starts, allowing at least three earned runs in each of those contests. He's allowed seven home runs in his last four starts alone. Toronto will counter with Robbie Ray. He's quietly anchored the Jays rotation this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 20 starts. Better still, he owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in six daytime outings. He'll have the benefit of facing the Indians for the first time in his career on Monday. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid the bullpens in this one. That's notable as I give the Indians a slight edge in that department. Take Toronto -0.5 runs first five innings (5*). |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Minnesota at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals stumbled last night, losing 8-1 against the Twins (we won with the 'over'). I expect them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Twins. He owns a 4.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in four road starts this season. Note that he's averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start away from home which is a concern given the Twins bullpen has posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. St. Louis will hand the ball to veteran Adam Wainwright. He's been locked in lately, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Wainwright has been rock solid at home, recording a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts with the Cards winning seven of those. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest in this one that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did, he allowed just one earned run over seven innings. The Cards bullpen has struggled at times this season but has shown positive signs lately, entering last night's game sporting a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over their last seven contests. They've converted 19 saves while blowing only three at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-31-21 | Rockies v. Padres -190 | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a fairly high price to back the Padres in this bounce-back spot on Saturday but I feel the line could be even higher. German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. He has generally struggled against the Padres over the course of his career, with a 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, however he did toss seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory here at Petco Park the last time he faced them on July 10th. With that being said, he brings poor form into this start, having allowed seven earned runs on 15 hits over just 12 1/3 innings in his last two outings and now will have to pitch on just four days' rest. The Rockies have won just two of his eight road starts this season. There's no question he could be carrying some disappointment as well having not been traded to a contending team prior to the trade deadline. Marquez averages six innings per start on the road this season and behind him is a Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just seven saves converted and eight blown away from home. Colorado hasn't enjoyed an off day since July 22nd. Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been pitching well but has also made three of his last four starts on the road. Here at home he owns a 2.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts this season with the Padres winning 10 of those. The last time he faced the Rockies at home he tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way. Note that Darvish will be pitching on a full five days' rest. The Padres bullpen has been overworked this season but did enjoy an off day earlier this week and has still held up well, recording a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown at home this season. Take San Diego (5*). |
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07-31-21 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting some offense as the Twins and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday night. Bailey Ober will get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He checks in sporting a 4.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the 'over' having cashed in three of his four road starts this season. Given he averages just over four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Twins bullpen that has posted a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown in night games this season. Jake Woodford will counter for the Cards. He's failed to make it through six innings in his first two starts, allowing 13 hits and four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings of work. Should he fail to work deep into the game again on Saturday we'll see plenty of a Cards 'pen that owns a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games this season. Take the over (7*). |
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07-31-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Anaheim on Saturday. Left-hander Cole Irvin will take the ball for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their fourth look at him already this season. They enjoyed plenty of success in their first two tries against him before getting shut out over seven innings against him a couple of weeks ago (we actually won with the A's in that game). Note that the Angels have been a better offensive team both at home and against left-handed starting pitching this season. Prior to getting shut out the last two nights, the Halos had scored 23 runs in their previous four contests. Irvin has generally been weaker in day games this season, recording a 4.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts. Behind Irvin is an uneven A's bullpen that has posted a collective 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Jaime Barria will counter for Los Angeles. He pitched well in his first start of the season last time out but going back further has generally struggled at the big league level. The A's didn't do much against him back in 2018 but then in 2019 scored five runs, four of them earned, in just four innings. Note that the A's have actually been a better offensive team on the road than at home this season. The real key to the A's success here could be the way they match up against the Angels bullpen. Los Angeles hasn't had a day off since July 21st and its 'pen has struggled all season, particularly in day games where it owns a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are tearing the cover off the ball right now - in fact, quite the opposite. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Friday's series-opener. Jean-Carlos Mejia will take the ball for the Indians. He has admittedly struggled this season - his numbers are downright ugly. However, he did match a season-high by going six innings in his most recent start and now gets the opportunity to face the White Sox for the first time in his career, and do so on a full five days' rest. Note that his last two starts have come against opponents he's been facing for the second time in less than a month. I'll also point out that Mejia has struck out 14 in his last two outings - showing some clear progress after recording just 14 strikeouts in his previous four starts combined. Mejia will likely have a short leash here though, noting that he averages less than four innings per start on the road this season. That's ok with us as the Indians bullpen has been solid, recording a 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown against division opponents this season. Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's been lights out at home this season, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 home starts, with the 'over' cashing in just one of those games. Going back over his last five outings, Lynn has given up just four earned runs in 28 innings of work. Behind Lynn is one of the freshest bullpens in baseball as the White Sox relief corps has logged just over 320 innings this season. Like the Indians, the White Sox 'pen has fared well against division opponents, posting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs against the A's but I look for a different story to unfold against the Rockies on Thursday - at least in the early stages of this one. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. The Padres will be seeing him for the third time this season and while they've had some previous success against him, he does come into this start pitching well, noting that he's allowed three earned runs or less in six straight starts. The 'under' has actually cashed in five of his six road outings this season. I'll also point out that the Padres offense has been slightly weaker both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid factoring in an awful Rockies bullpen that has struggled all season, particularly away from home. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He's been outstanding at home this season but did struggle in his most recent outing against the Rockies, which did come here in San Diego. Keep in mind, he was pitching on just four days' rest in that one. Here, he starts on a full five days' rest and should improve on his stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. Better still, Musgrove owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. The Rockies have of course been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels -200 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Angels continue to flirt with the .500 mark so all is not lost in this 2021 season. I like their chances of bouncing back from last night's blowout loss at the hands of the Rockies. Chi Chi Gonzalez will take the ball for the Rockies. While Colorado did win his last start against the Dodgers, here he'll be pitching on just four days' rest, noting that he has posted a 6.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with the Rockies winning just three of his nine road starts this season. Behind Gonzalez is a Colorado bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just seven saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Andrew Heaney will counter for the Angels. He's coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing just two earned runs over seven innings in Minnesota last time out. He'll have the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. Note that the Rockies have never really been able to figure Heaney out, scoring just seven earned runs off of him in 20 1/3 innings in three previous games against him. The Angels bullpen has converted 16 saves while blowing 10 in night games this season and has converted four of five save opportunities in Interleague play. Take Los Angeles (5*). |
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07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 11-4 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have been high-scoring but I look for Wednesday's series-finale to get off to a low-scoring start at the very least. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for Houston. He has struggled a bit in his last couple of outings but still owns a solid 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six road starts this season. He has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, not allowing a home run in five of his last six starts overall. Despite what we've seen in the first couple of games in this series, the Mariners have actually been a slightly weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid an Astros bullpen that owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 12 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season. Yusei Kikuchi will counter for the Mariners. He bounced back from a couple of shaky outings to strike out 12 while allowing just three earned runs over six innings last time out. Kikuchi has posted a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. He seemed to figure out the Astros in his last start against them in late April, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball. There's no real reason to knock a quality Mariners bullpen but I will point out that they have collectively posted a higher ERA in day games this season, currently sitting at 3.91. Take the first five innings under (7*). |
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07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've been picking on the D'Backs lately, fading them in consecutive games over the weekend but only managing to earn a 1-1 split. Here, I'll go back to the well again as we go against Arizona when it opens a series in Texas on Tuesday night. Of course the Rangers haven't won a game since July 9th but they've also played their last 10 on the road so it's not as if many wins were to be expected as they've generally been awful away from home. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the Snakes. He'll get a third straight turn in the rotation out of necessity only as he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his last two outings he's allowed 11 hits and six earned runs in just nine innings of work. With Widener unlikely to work deep into the game we should see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that has really struggled on the road this season, converting fewer saves than they've blown. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been at his best here at home this season, with one of the strongest home-road dichotomies we've seen from any starter in baseball. In his last two home outings he has allowed just six hits and three earned runs in 10 innings of work. While Dunning also isn't a strong candidate to last deep into the game, the Rangers bullpen has actually been terrific at home this season. While both of these teams are simply playing out the string in the dog days of Summer, I like the Rangers to secure the victory on Tuesday night. Take Texas (10*). |
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07-26-21 | Astros -163 v. Mariners | 8-11 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners just took three of four games from the A's but I look for them to get tripped up in their series-opener against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia gets the call for Houston. He's pitched well on the road this season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Here, he'll be starting on a full five days' rest after tossing six shutout innings against the Indians last time out. Garcia was a hard-luck loser against the Mariners earlier this season, allowing just one earned run over five innings in a 1-0 loss. The Astros bullpen is one of the freshest in baseball and checks in sporting a collective 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over their last seven games. Darren McCaughan will counter for Seattle. He just had an extended relief outing against Colorado five days ago. While he gave up just one earned run over five innings in that game, he didn't strike out a single batter. In 7 2/3 big league innings going back to Spring Training he's struck out only two hitters. The Mariners haven't had a day off since July 19th and their bullpen has been stretched having worked 31 innings over their last seven games. They've converted 15 saves while blowing 12 in night games this season. Take Houston (5*). |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins -159 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Twins are coming off a series loss against the Angels but the Tigers just got swept by the Royals so both teams are struggling entering Monday's series-opener in Minnesota. I like the Twins to get back on track here. Matt Manning will get another turn in the rotation despite his struggles. He has posted an ugly 8.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three road starts, with the Tigers losing all three of those games. That included a five-inning outing against these same Twins in which Manning allowed two earned runs on two hits while striking out only three and walking three. I look for Minnesota to improve on those numbers here. The Tigers bullpen has been dreadful on the road this season, posting a collective 6.47 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and eight blown. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Twins. He's been at his best here at home this season posting a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Tigers have never really been able to figure him out, going 3-6 all-time against him including four losses in their last five tries. Pineda is coming off a confidence-building start against the White Sox in which he gave up just one earned run on four hits over five innings. The Twins bullpen has only been forced to work 21 2/3 innings over the last seven games and has converted 12 saves while blowing seven here at home this season. Take Minnesota (6*). |
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07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Reds have reeled off three straight wins but I look for their brief winning streak to come to an end on Monday night in Chicago. Wade Miley will take the ball for Cincinnati. He'll be making his third start of the season against Chicago and while he's allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings it's not as if he's been dominant, giving up 15 hits while striking out only six. He also faced the Cubs once last season and didn't make it through the second inning, allowing five earned runs before exiting. Keep in mind, the Cubs have been a better offensive club both against left-handers and at home this season. The Reds bullpen has posted a collective 4.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Worse still, they've recorded a 5.61 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in night games. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He has righted the ship after a rocky start to the season, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has posted a respectable 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season with the Cubs winning six of his 10 starts. Behind Hendricks is an excellent Cubs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-25-21 | A's -124 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I like the A's to answer back and earn a split against the Mariners in Seattle on Sunday. Cole Irvin takes the ball for Oakland. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He's also been solid in daytime starts, recording a 3.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. While he did struggle in his lone previous start against the Mariners this season that was his second consecutive start pitching on just four days' rest. Here, he takes the hill on a full five days' rest. The A's bullpen has posted a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, better numbers than their 11:10 save conversion rate would indicate. Over their last seven games they've been terrific, recording a 2.04 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He's generally been awful at home, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Against division opponents he has recorded a 5.68 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with the Mariners dropping three of his four starts this season. The A's offense has been better both on the road and against left-handed pitching. I won't knock the Mariners bullpen as that relief corps has been solid this season. However, I will point to the fact that they've been overworked lately, working over 30 innings in the last seven games. Take Oakland (8*). |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants -169 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. While I don't like the 'avoid the sweep' angle when it comes to baseball and I know that the Giants will be an extremely popular play on Sunday afternoon, I believe the price is reasonable and we should see San Francisco avoid the sweep at the hands of the Pirates on Sunday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to J.T. Brubaker. The wheels have fallen off for the right-hander lately as he has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings over his last three starts. He hasn't performed well on the road this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with the Pirates losing eight of his nine starts. The Giants have yet to face Brubaker but considering they've been a better offensive club both at home and against right-handed pitching this season, I expect them to have a solid afternoon at the plate. Behind Brubaker is a Pirates bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.11 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Interestingly, they've managed to record just six saves while blowing seven in day games. Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. He has recorded a 3.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the Giants winning six of his nine home starts this season. Wood has faced the Pirates once this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 4-1 victory in Pittsburgh back in May. Note that the Buccos have been a worse offensive team both on the road and against left-handed pitching. The Giants bullpen has been roughed up a bit lately but still owns a collective 3.28 ERA and 1.1 WHIP at home this season with 18 saves converted and only four blown. Take San Francisco (6*). |
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07-25-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -160 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. Let's try this again shall we? We lost with the Cubs yesterday as they blew a 2-0 lead in an eventual 7-3 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday. Caleb Smith takes the ball for the D'Backs. While he's been solid at home (we actually won with him in his last start earlier this week) he's been awful on the road, posting a 9.64 ERA and 2.07 WHIP. Behind Smith is a weak Snakes bullpen that owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown on the road this season. Trevor Williams has also shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season, pitching far better here at Wrigley Field, recording a 3.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with the Cubs winning all five of his home starts. He'll be starting on just four days' of rest here but that's not a big concern considering he had been on the I.L. since May previously. The Cubs bullpen has generally been solid at home, posting a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown. Take Chicago (6*). |
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07-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -162 | 4-3 | Loss | -162 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston first five innings over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series and while I do like them to pick up a third win in a row on Saturday, I like the 'first five innings' play even better. Jameson Taillon will face the Red Sox for his second straight turn in the rotation. He pitched well against them last Sunday night, tossing 5 1/3 shutout innings. However, that was at home. He has posted an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven road starts, averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start. With the Red Sox getting their third look at Taillon this season, I look for them to have early success on Saturday, noting that they have a higher scoring average both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He struggled in his last start prior to the All-Star break but that was his second straight outing on just four days' rest. Here, he'll be pitching on six days' rest. While the Red Sox fell short 3-1 in Eovaldi's outing against the Yankees last week, he actually pitched well, giving up only one earned run on two hits over five innings. Eovaldi owns a 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 1.19 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six starts against A.L. East opponents this season. Take Boston first five innings (6*). |
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07-24-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -149 | 7-3 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Cubs opened this series with a blowout win yesterday afternoon and I look for them to pick up rare consecutive victories on Saturday afternoon. Merrill Kelly will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's been generally awful on the road this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 10 starts with Arizona losing 10 of those games. Chicago will be getting its second look at him in less than a week on Saturday after scoring four earned runs in eight innings against him last Friday. That was in Arizona though. The last time the Cubs faced Kelly here at Wrigley Field they scored three earned runs on six hits over 3 2/3 innings back in 2019. It's not as if the D'Backs have gotten better since then. They check into this game 11-38 on the road this season. With Kelly averaging just 5.4 innings per start on the road this season we're likely to see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen which has recorded a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown on the road this season. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. He's been sharp in two home starts this season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Cubs winning both of those games. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest here but I'm not overly concerned as he worked just four innings in his most recent start. In two previous starts on four days' rest this season he has allowed only three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Behind Mills is a Cubs bullpen that has posted a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three saves blown at home this season. Take Chicago (6*). |
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07-23-21 | Tigers +112 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
American League F5 Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Tigers are red hot right now and I like them to at least get off to a strong start against the Royals on Friday night in Kansas City. Former Royal Wily Peralta has been a pleasant surprise in the Tigers rotation this season. He checks in sporting a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four road starts. He came out of the All-Star break tossing seven shutout innings against the Twins last time out. With opponents hitting sub-.200 against him this season, I like his chances of keeping the Royals lukewarm bats at bay on Friday night. What I don't want is any part of the Tigers bullpen on the road, where they've posted a collective 6.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown this season. While their bullpen was forced to work extended innings in yesterday's 7-5 win over the Rangers, the Royals 'pen was idle. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He's generally been awful this season, failing to even last five innings in any of his last five starts. In four home outings he has recorded a 4.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that over his last four starts he has been tagged for a whopping 11 home runs in 17 innings of work. The Tigers have seen Bubic twice since last September, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits off of him over 9 2/3 innings. Take Detroit first five innings (10*). |
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07-23-21 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. |
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07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Braves got off to a fast start at the plate and cruised the rest of the way in last night's 7-2 victory. I look for the starting pitchers to dominate Friday's contest, in the early going at least. Max Fried will get the nod for Atlanta. After struggling in his first few starts against the Phillies back in 2019 he's been locked in over his last three going back to the start of last season. In those three outings he has allowed just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. Note that Fried comes into this start off a seven-inning shutout performance against the Rays last week. While his road numbers are poor this season, it's worth noting that in his last two road starts on five days' rest (as is the case here) he's given up just four earned runs in 11 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this season. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He is of course enjoying a career year and has been particularly sharp here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 11 starts. Not surprisingly, he's owned the Braves in two previous home starts this season, allowing only five hits while posting a ridiculous 22:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 shutout innings. The Phillies bullpen is another one we'll look to avoid, noting that they've posted a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home this season. Take the first five innings under (7*). |
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07-22-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -164 | 5-3 | Loss | -164 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have gone back and forth in this series with the Giants taking two of the first three games. Here, I look for the Dodgers to salvage a series split behind another strong outing from Walker Buehler. Anthony DeSclafani will get the call for the Giants. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm pretty high on DeSclafani. However, he's not in an ideal spot here, starting on just four days' rest against a Dodgers club that has absolutely owned him. There were some red flags in his most recent start as he struck out only four (his lowest K total since June 3rd) and also allowed two home runs, only the second time he had given up two or more long balls in a game this season but those two occurrences have come in his last four starts. The Dodgers will be getting their fourth look at DeSclafani this season having already scored 15 earned runs on 19 hits over just 12 1/3 innings. Los Angeles is 7-2 all-time against the right-hander. Walker Buehler will counter for the Dodgers. The Giants have never really been able to figure him out, most recently facing him three times already this season, managing just two earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. In fact, Los Angeles has won seven of Buehler's previous eight career starts against San Francisco. He checks in sporting a terrific 2.31 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 home starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. He's been at his absolute best against N.L. West opponents, recording a 1.64 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 10 starts. Behind Buehler is a Dodgers bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. While the Giants 'pen has posted solid overall numbers, I'm always concerned about their poor save conversion rate on the road. Entering last night's game they had converted 15 saves while blowing 12 away from home. Take Los Angeles (6*). |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams come in riding three-game 'over' streaks, with those streaks starting with an 'over' result last Sunday night that we experienced first hand (a true 'bad beat' for us with the 'under' as the game was 3-0 heading into the bottom of the seventh inning but went 'over' by half a run with a 9-1 final score). Here, I look for those 'over' streaks to come to an end as the scene shifts to Fenway Park. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for the Yankees. He's held his own on the mound lately but unfortunately has been given just seven runs to work with over his last five starts. Montgomery checks in sporting a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season with the 'under' cashing in seven of those games. This will be Boston's third look at Montgomery this season with minimal previous success having scored six earned runs in 12 innings against him. Behind Montgomery is a Yankees bullpen that has been at its best on the road this season, recording a collective 3.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only two blown. Tanner Houck returns to the big leagues to make just his third start of the season for the Red Sox. In his first two starts this season - which both came back in April - he allowed five earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. Note that he faced the Yankees last September and pitched well, giving up just one unearned run over six innings here at Fenway Park. Houck will likely have a short leash in this game and that's fine for our purposes as the Red Sox bullpen has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 13 saves converted and five blown here at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kyle Hendricks will make his fourth start against the Cardinals this season and sixth going back to the start of last season. The Cards have never really been able to figure the veteran right-hander out and I don't expect them to do so tonight either. In five previous games against Hendricks since last August, St. Louis has never managed to score more than three earned runs - held to two earned runs or less in each of their last four tries against him. Just before the All-Star break, Hendricks held the Cards to two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. Note that Hendricks checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. With Hendricks averaging over six innings per start on the road this season we might not need too much help from the Cubs bullpen but it's worth noting that they entered last night's action sporting a solid 3.37 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in night games this season with 11 converted saves and only four blown. Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He's been outstanding at home this season, recording a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts with the 'under' going 8-3 in those games. The Cubs will be seeing him for the third time since last September, having managed just two earned runs on seven hits off of him in their last two tries, covering a span of 14 1/3 innings. While Wainwright will be starting on just four days' rest that's not as big of a concern given he had a 10 days between starts previously thanks to the All-Star break. While the Cards bullpen has posted outstanding numbers across the board this season, they did enter last night's contest having converted an incredible 18 saves while blowing only one here at home this season. The Cubs offense busted out last night but prior to that had averaged just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins took the opener of this series but the White Sox have answered back with consecutive wins since and I look for them to take Wednesday's contest as well. Michael Pineda will make his second start since returning from the I.L. His first actually came against these same White Sox as we was tagged for 12 hits and five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-1 home loss on July 7th. Since last season, the Sox have seen Pineda three times, scoring 10 earned runs on 22 hits over 16 2/3 innings. Pineda recorded just 15 strikeouts in those three outings. Note that Pineda checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three road starts this season. Worse still, he has posted a 5.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in three nighttime starts. Behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 10 saves converted and six blown at night this season. Keep in mind, this is a Minnesota team that has gone 18-30 on the road this season. Chicago will counter with Dylan Cease. He labored through his last start against the Twins on July 5th but that was in Minnesota. He's been a completely different pitcher here at home, posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with the White Sox winning seven of his nine starts. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest but that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did it, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Tigers on June 6th, with that start also coming here at home. After struggling in his first two career starts against Minnesota, Cease has generally sorted it out, recording 26 strikeouts while posting a 3-1 team record in his last four outings against the Twins, covering a span of 21 innings. The White Sox bullpen has been outstanding in division games this season, posting a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only six blown. Their relief corps is among the freshest in baseball, having entered last night's action logging just 290 2/3 innings. For context, some other bullpens have already topped the 400-inning mark. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -161 | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals got the better of the Brewers in yesterday's series-opener but I like Milwaukee to answer back on Wednesday afternoon. Brad Keller gets the nod for the visiting Royals. He's been quite simply one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season, checking in with a 5.03 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in 10 road starts, with Kansas City losing six of those games. His ERA climbs to 5.94 to go along with a 1.85 WHIP in 10 daytime outings. This will be the Brewers third look at Keller since last season having had little trouble against him previously, scoring eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Behind Keller is a weak Royals bullpen that has posted a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only eight saves converted and six blown on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). Eric Lauer will start for the Brewers after getting moved back a day due to a fingernail issue. I don't expect him to be any worse for wear. Note that he's quietly been one of the Brewers best starters this season and particularly of late as he's recorded a 0.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his last three outings. In three daytime starts he has posted a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll have the advantage of facing the Royals for the first time, noting that they're been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 4.09 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only six blown (entering yesterday's action). Take Milwaukee (6*) |
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07-20-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Tigers offense exploded for 14 runs in last night's rout of the Rangers. Texas' scoring woes continued as it has now scored just two runs in four games since the All-Star break and has been shutout in three consecutive contests (two of those games were seven-inning affairs). Dane Dunning will get the start for the Rangers on Tuesday. He has admittedly struggled on the road this season but did head into the break on a positive note, having posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts, including a road start in Oakland that saw him toss four shutout innings. The break probably came at a good time for Dunning as he had made two of his last three starts on just four days' rest. Note that he has been at his best this season in nighttime starts, recording a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 outings. After struggling against the Tigers in his first start against them last August, he bounced back and allowed just one earned run on one hit over five innings against them in his last start before the break. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 5.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with only six converted saves and five blown (entering last night's action). Left-hander Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Dunning, he also made two of his last three starts before the break on just four days' rest so the extra days off came at a good time. Skubal has pitched reasonably well at home this season, recording a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine starts. He'll have the benefit of facing the Rangers for the first time in his career on Tuesday. With the Tigers bullpen entering last night's action having posted a collective 5.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season, we'll look to avoid that unit by playing the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's as they look to close out a quick two-game sweep of the Angels on Tuesday afternoon. Jose Suarez will get his third start of the season for the Angels as he takes a second consecutive turn in the rotation. After struggling mightily at the big league level the last two seasons, Suarez has been serviceable this year, but we're talking about a very small sample size. Most concerning to me is his 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through eight innings of work. The Angels pretty much know what they're going to get from Suarez here - likely 4-5 innings. That leaves the bulk of the game in the hands of a poor Angels bullpen that has posted a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown in day games this season. Last night the Los Angeles relief corps was charged with all four earned runs in just two innings of work in a 4-1 loss. Rookie James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on, checking in with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings. Note that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Here at home he owns an incredible 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four starts. In six daytime outings he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Here, he'll be making his second start against the Angels this season but I'm not overly concerned as he's fared reasonably well when facing the same team multiple times this season. Kaprielian is averaging an impressive 6.5 innings per start at home this season so perhaps we won't need a lot of help from the A's bullpen. However, it's certainly worth noting that the A's 'pen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 3.78 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Here at home, Oakland's relief corps has converted 14 saves while blowing only three. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-19-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We saw consecutive low-scoring games involving the A's over the weekend as they dropped a pair against the Indians. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Angels roll into Oakland to open this series. Shohei Ohtani will get the start for Los Angeles. After taking center stage during the All-Star festivities last week he played in all three games during the Angels weekend series against the Mariners. I simply question whether we'll see Ohtani at his best on the mound on Monday night. Note that he has posted an ugly 6.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in three of his five road starts this season. The A's have already seen Ohtani twice since the start of last season, scoring eight earned runs in just six innings against him. Behind Ohtani is a weak Angels bullpen that has posted a collective 4.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season. Note that the L.A. relief corps was just forced to work 9 1/3 innings over the course of its three-game series against the Mariners. Not including yesterday's game, the Angels 'pen has recorded a 5.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against A.L. West opponents this season. Cole Irvin will counter for the A's. The Angels have of course been a considerably better offensive club against left-handed pitching this season. In fact, in their last two games against left-handed starters they've put up a whopping 16 runs. Irvin has made eight starts against division opponents this season, recording a 6.80 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The Angels will be getting their third look at him this season having already scored eight earned runs on 15 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. The only other opponent Irvin has faced three times this season is the Astros and in his third outing against them he was tagged for five earned runs on eight hits over five innings. While the A's bullpen has been terrific at converting saves here at home this season it has still given up its share of runs, entering yesterday's game sporting a collective 4.25 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here at home. Against A.L. West opponents, the A's 'pen has posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take the over (7*). |
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07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The D'Backs snapped a four-game losing streak and avoided a sweep at the hands of the Cubs with a 6-4 victory here at home yesterday and I look for them to build off of that success and at least get Monday's game off to a positive start through five innings. Chase De Jong will take the ball for Pittsburgh. We now have a big enough sample size to have a good idea of what we'll get from him on the road, where he has posted a 6.16 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts this season. The D'Backs have never faced De Jong but it is worth noting that they average a higher runs per game average (compared to their overall season average) both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. We'll play the first five innings only as I do respect the Pirates bullpen (despite what we saw from them in yesterday's collapse against the Mets). Note that they've converted seven saves while blowing only two on the road this season and have converted nine without a single blown save in night games. Left-hander Caleb Smith will start for Arizona. Like De Jong against the D'Backs, Smith will be facing the Pirates for the first time in his career. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. Smith has run into some trouble in his last couple of starts (that's an understatement when you consider he was ripped for nine earned runs in a single inning of work against the Dodgers last time out), but has generally pitched well here at home, recording a 3.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts in the desert. We want no part of a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown here at home this season (entering yesterday's action), so we'll play the first five innings only. Take Arizona first five innings (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring, rain-shortened game between these two teams last night as the Yankees prevailed by a 3-1 score in six innings. While I'm not anticipating a true pitcher's duel here, I do think we'll see this contest stay 'under' the lofty total. Martin Perez has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox this season, particularly on the road where he has recorded a stellar 2.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven starts, with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. He does average less than five innings per start overall, but that number bumps up to 5 2/3 innings on the road. He'll likely have a short leash again here but that's fine as the Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only nine blown in night games this season. While the Yankees did have Perez's number earlier in this career, he has been serviceable against them lately, allowing just three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in his last three outings against them. Jameson Taillon didn't get his Yankees tenure off to a positive start this season but he has pitched better lately and has certainly been at his best here in the Bronx where he owns a 3.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Like Perez, he generally doesn't work deep into ball games, averaging just 4.9 innings per start but that number does boost to 5 1/3 innings here at home. Behind Taillon is a fresh Yankees bullpen that didn't have to work thanks to the rain (and Gerrit Cole) last night. The New York relief corps has posted a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only six blown in night games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-18-21 | Padres v. Nationals -104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Padres have gotten the better of the Nationals so far in this series (although we'll have to wait for the conclusion of last night's game prior to this one following the unfortunate events that halted proceedings on Saturday), but I expect the Nats to answer back with their ace Max Scherzer on the hill on Sunday afternoon. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the visiting Padres. He's been good, but certainly not great on the road this season where he owns a 3.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Worse still, he has posted a 4.79 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five daytime starts. While those WHIP numbers are admittedly impressive, he has seen his walks creep up lately, issuing 11 free passes over his last five starts. The Nats have certainly had Musgrove's number over the years, scoring 12 earned runs in 15 previous innings against him. Also note that Musgrove hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three outings and averages just a shade over five innings per start on the road this season. That last note is a concern as the Padres bullpen has been overworked this season - likely to eclipse the 400-inning mark here today. San Diego's relief corps has just 10 converted saves compared to six blown on the road this season. As I mentioned, Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He was lit up by the Padres on July 8th but I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly, noting that he had given up just six earned runs in his last six starts against them. Scherzer has posted a 1.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in eight home starts this season. Right on par, he has recorded a 1.94 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in seven daytime outings. The Washington bullpen has been serviceable here at home, recording a collective 4.27 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners got the better of the Angels in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') but I expect Los Angeles to answer back on Saturday. All-Star Yusei Kikuchi will get the nod for the Mariners. His overall numbers are terrific this season although it is worth noting that he has posted a less than impressive 4.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts with the Mariners losing six of those games. If there's one team that's had his number over the course of his career it's the Angels. In six career outings against them, including one this season, he's posted a 1-5 team record to go along with a 10.22 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. Of course, the Angels have been a significantly better offensive team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Alex Cobb will counter for Los Angeles. He has recorded a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP here at home this season with the Angels winning five of his six starts. While the Angels bullpen has been shaky, the good news is that Cobb averages a shade over six innings per start here at home. He'll be facing a Mariners team that still owns a losing record on the road this season, averaging just 4.3 runs per game. In two starts against Seattle here in 2021, Cobb has allowed just seven hits and five earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, winning the lone outing here at home which actually came against Kikuchi as well back on June 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Giants busted out for seven runs in last night's rout of the Cardinals. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday - at least in the early stages of this one. Anthony DeSclafani will take the ball for San Francisco. He labored through a couple of starts against the Cardinals last season but he's obviously been a different pitcher here in 2021. DeSclafani checks in sporting a 2.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 road starts this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-3-1 clip. Better still, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 14 nighttime outings. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has blown 11 saves on the road this season. The Cards will give left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim the nod. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven home starts this season. Kim really rounded into form prior to the All-Star break, recording a sparkling 0.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last three outings. I do think the extra couple of days off should serve as a positive, however, as he had made five consecutive starts on just four days' rest. Note that he'll be facing a Giants club that has been slightly weaker offensively on the road and considerably so against southpaw pitchers this season. They certainly didn't fare well against Kim earlier this month as they were shut out over seven innings. With Kim averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start at home, we'll likely see plenty from the Cardinals bullpen here, which we'll look to avoid by playing the first five innings only as St. Louis' relief corps has posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB on FOX F5 Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. While playing 'overs' can be tricky coming out of the All-Star break with rested starting pitchers and bullpens, I see this as an ideal spot to call for a relatively high-scoring affair. Chris Flexen will take ball for the Mariners. While he's posted impressive numbers overall this season, that's been due in large part to the fact that he's made 10 of his 16 starts at home. Things haven't gone nearly as smooth on the road, where he owns a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 31 innings of work. Here, the Angels will be getting their second look at Flexen in less than a week after he shut them down in Seattle on July 10th. In their lone previous game against Flexen, the Angels had more success, scoring three earned runs and chasing him from the game after just four innings in late April. With Flexen averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Mariners bullpen in this one. Like Flexen, the Mariners relief corps has also been much better at home than on the road, where it has recorded a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 converted saves and 10 blown this season. Los Angeles will counter with left-hander Andrew Heaney. He checks in with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the 'over' cashing at a 6-1-1 clip. The Mariners didn't do much against him in three tries last season but seemed to figure him out in his lone outing against them this year, scoring four earned runs including three home runs in only 3 1/3 innings. Note that Seattle has been a slightly better offensive club against left-handers and on the road this season. Like Flexen, Heaney doesn't tend to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. While the Angels bullpen was better in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, it still owns a less than impressive 4.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 11 converted saves and eight blown here at home this season. Worse still, that ERA rises to 5.21 to go along with a 1.45 WHIP against division opponents. Take the over (10*). |
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07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game in Chicago on Friday night as the Astros send Lance McCullers Jr. to the hill against Dylan Cease. McCullers checks in sporting a 2.94 ERA 1.43 WHIP in six road starts this season. The White Sox have never really been able to figure him out, seeing him five times previously and managing to score just eight earned runs in 30 1/3 innings. Note that Chicago has been slightly weaker offensively both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. Behind McCullers is a solid Astros bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. Here, they'll have all hands on deck coming out of the break and it's worth noting they've posted a stellar 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and only one blown. Dylan Cease got hit hard by the Astros earlier this season but that was in Houston. He's been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest here, that hasn't been a problem this season - at least at home, where he has done so on three previous occasions, allowing just one earned run over 18 2/3 innings of work. With Cease averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start at home we're likely going to need a significant contribution from the White Sox bullpen. That's fine as they've posted a collective 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown here at home this season and like the Astros have been better lately, recording a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-16-21 | Padres -131 v. Nationals | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego first five innings over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between New York and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price to back a Brewers club that has been a little uneven of late but I believe it's warranted. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Vladimir Gutierrez. He'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest and he'll be facing the Brewers for the third time this season. Milwaukee hasn't had a ton of success against him (it dropped both previous meetings) but there are certainly building blocks for success in place as it collected 10 hits, five walks and four earned runs over 13 innings in its two previous looks at the rookie right-hander. While Gutierrez was sharp in his first four big league starts, his last four haven't gone so swimmingly as he's allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits over 21 1/3 innings. That's not to mention his less than impressive 17:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch. Gutierrez averages just 5.5 innings per start this season, meaning we should see plenty of a Reds bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Cincinnati hasn't had an off day since June 23rd so we're talking about an overworked bullpen right now. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He owns a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the Brewers winning five of those games. Unlike Gutierrez, Peralta hasn't had to pitch on four days' rest since May 16th and won't do so here either. The Reds will be seeing Peralta for the fourth time this season but have never really figured him out, managing to score just five earned runs on 10 hits in 15 2/3 innings. The Brewers have come away victorious in five of Peralta's last six starts against Cincinnati. Behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, posting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night's action). Here at home they've converted 15 saves while blowing only six. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a very high posted total for a game not played at Coors Field but I believe it's warranted. Matt Moore gets the start for the Phillies. He's actually been solid in two starts since returning to the rotation in late June. Here, he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the first time this season, however. He'll also be facing a Red Sox club that has averaged seven runs per game in their last six games against left-handed starters. Behind Moore is a Phillies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in day games this season blowing eight saves while converting only four. Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's having a fine season but is in a bit of a tough spot today, making his third consecutive start on four days' rest. It's also worth noting that he has posted an inflated 5.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 10 home starts. We've seen him labor through his last three outings, allowing 21 hits in 14 1/3 innings of work. He's also topped out at three strikeouts in his last six starts. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid this season but if there's a spot they're vulnerable it's in day games as they've recorded a collective 4.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring contest to open this series last night as the Twins rallied for a 5-3 victory. While Minnesota 'should' pick up a second straight win over the Tigers here, I'm more confident playing the 'over'. Matt Manning gets another start in the Tigers rotation but it's certainly not due to his fine pitching. Quite the contrary, he has been awful in four big league starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs on 25 hits while striking out only six in 17 innings of work. In two road starts Manning has posted an 11.42 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with those two games totaling 12 and 18 runs. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for the second time this season after getting tagged for nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his first opportunity at Cleveland on June 28th. With Manning averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start we should see plenty of the Tigers bullpen in this one as well. They've posted a collective 5.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Detroit hasn't had an off day in over a week. Kenta Maeda will get the call for Minnesota. He rebounded to deliver one of his best starts of the season in Kansas City last time out. That doesn't change the fact that he's struggled for the most part this season. Even here at home while he has managed to record a respectable 3.29 ERA, his WHIP stands at 1.61. Like Manning, Maeda will be starting on four days' rest - doing so for just the third time since the start of last season. In those two previous starts on short rest, Maeda allowed eight runs, six of them earned, in 10 innings of work with the two games totaling 11 and 13 runs. While Maeda has had previous success against Detroit, they'll be seeing him for the fifth time in the last 11 months. Note that the Tigers are generally good for at least a few runs off of Maeda in six or so innings (he's given up 15 earned runs in 30 previous innings pitched against them) and that just might be all we need from them here to help this one 'over' the total. Behind Maeda is a Twins bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 28th and has been generally awful at home this season, recording a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Worse still, they've posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
American League Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Indians last night as they snapped their nine-game losing streak in thrilling fashion in a 7-4 walk-off victory to open this series against the Royals. It looked pretty bleak for the first seven innings but a couple of late three-run home runs ended up being the difference. I believe the Indians are set up incredibly well to keep building positive momentum on Friday night, even if the starting pitching matchup doesn't look all that favorable on paper. This one has the chance to really get away from the Royals as the game progresses. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. We've been picking on Keller lately, and for good reason. He's once again in an awful spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a ninth consecutive turn in the rotation. Give him credit for hanging in there for 6 1/3 innings against the Twins last time out but that was at home. He has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in nine road starts this season and hasn't been any better at night, recording a 6.92 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Considering Keller averages less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Triston McKenzie will make a spot start for the Indians on Friday. The less said about him the better, quite honestly. His numbers this season are awful - there's a reason he was banished from the rotation at the start of June. With that being said, he has inexplicably had the Royals number. In three career starts against them he has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking five in 16 innings of work. Unlike Keller, McKenzie has a fresh arm having not started since the second week of June. I like the contrarian angle of backing him here, knowing he'll likely be on a short leash. Behind McKenzie is a solid Indians bullpen that entered last night's action with a collective 2.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with nine converted saves and only one blown here at home this season. While they did blow a save opportunity last night, they entered that contest having converted 14 of 15 save chances in division games this season. Unlike the Royals, who have been playing every day for weeks, the Indians have been afforded three off days in the last two weeks (with a couple of seven-inning double-headers thrown in the mix). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. |
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07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Washington and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night. In fact, each of the first three games in this series have been high-scoring. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however, at least in the early stages of this contest. Max Scherzer will take the ball for Washington. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the first time since missing a turn in the rotation in mid-June. Note that short rest has fazed him as he has allowed just three earned runs in 17 innings over his last three trips to the hill. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight road starts this season. The Padres had some success against Mad Max early in his career but we're talking over a decade ago. In his last six starts against them he's locked them up, allowing only six earned runs in 42 2/3 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Nationals bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Padres will counter with their ace Yu Darvish. All he's done this season is record a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 11 home starts. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest but that's not a big concern as he hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning in any of his last four starts and hasn't pitched on short rest since June 3rd. Darvish has no recent history against the Nationals, which should give him an advantage here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Mariners to have the early edge against them on Thursday afternoon. Jordan Montgomery gets the nod for New York. The Mariners have actually hit 14 points higher and averaged 0.3 runs per game more against left-handed starters this season, posting a 16-12 record along the way. Montgomery hasn't been good on the road, where he owns a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In six daytime starts he has posted a 5.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday after laboring through 4 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the Mets. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only two blown on the road this season. Rookie Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's settled in a bit after a shaky start to his big league career. Gilbert has been at his absolute best in daytime starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four outings with the Mariners winning all four of those games. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Yankees for the first time and will be pitching on at least five days rest for the 10th straight time to open his career. Playing the first five innings should help us avoid a Mariners bullpen that while effective here at home this season has been overworked lately and just logged another four innings last night. Take Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped the first three games in this series but I look for them to get off to a positive start at the very least in Thursday's afternoon affair. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He'll be making his second straight start on a full five days' rest and checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. Better still, Urias has recorded a 3.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven daytime outings this season. While he got lit up in his lone previous start against the Marlins, that came over four years ago and has little bearing on today's matchup. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season. Sandy Alcantara will counter for Miami. His worst start of the season came against the Dodgers back on May 14th as he was chased after allowing eight earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings. He was pitching on four days' rest on that night, and he'll be doing the same here today. Note that he has labored through his last two outings, allowing 11 hits and six runs, four of them earned, while posting a 7:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 11 1/3 innings of work. Here, we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has been quietly efficient at home this season, recording a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Nationals v. Padres -170 | 15-5 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Washington at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres busted out of a 1-4 slide with a 7-4 victory last night and I look for them to build on that performance here. Washington will hand the ball to struggling left-hander Patrick Corbin. He's had a miserable season so far and doesn't figure to turn it around here. Corbin has posted a 6.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road this season with the Nats' winning just two of his seven starts. Behind Corbin is an overworked Washington bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and has posted a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Chris Paddack will start for the Padres. While he hasn't been great this season he has been at his best at night, recording a 4.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with the Padres winning six of his nine starts. He'll have the advantage of facing the Nationals for the first time in his career tonight. The Padres bullpen has been as good as it gets at home this season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Diego (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco over St. Louis at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to answer back and avoid the sweep on Wednesday night. Johan Oviedo gets the call for the Cardinals. He's been absolutely dreadful on the road this season, recording a 6.20 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts with the Cards winning only two of those games. Here, he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Over his last three outings he has allowed 19 hits and 10 earned runs to go along with an ugly 8:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 13 2/3 innings of work. Behind Oviedo is a Cards bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.52 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season with just eight saves converted compared to six blown. Left-hander Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. It's worth noting that the Cards have been a weaker team against southpaw pitchers this season, hitting a collective .222 and averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have had some success against Wood in the past, but have never faced him away from home and haven't had a look at him in nearly two years. Wood checks in with a 4.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, with the Giants winning five of his eight starts. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only three blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not easy to back the Cubs right now as they enter this game riding an 11-game losing streak. We just lost with them last night +1.5 runs but I won't hesitate to come back with the same play on Wednesday night. The Phillies will give the nod to their ace, Zack Wheeler on Wednesday night. I don't have much negative to say about Wheeler, who is having a career year. With that being said, he will be starting on just four days' rest for the third straight turn in the rotation after working at least seven innings in each of his last two starts. Despite his stellar overall numbers, the Phillies are still just 7-10 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line in his 17 outings this season. Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that hasn't been good on the road this season, posting a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. He has quietly pitched well in five starts this season, recording a 3.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a major concern given the Cubs bullpen has been their strong suit, posting a collective 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 13 converted saves and only three blown at home this season. Mills will have the advantage of facing the Phillies for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Braves -137 v. Pirates | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves are going to be a popular play on Wednesday afternoon but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. Drew Smyly will get the start for Atlanta. While there have been some shaky moments, he has generally exceeded expectations for the Braves so far this season and brings excellent form into this start having posted a sparkling 0.52 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, Smyly will face a Pirates club that averages just 3.3 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. With the Braves playing confidently behind Smyly, winners of each of their last five games with him on the hill, he's the ideal starter to serve as stopper after dropping the first two games in this series. William Crowe starts for Pittsburgh. The Braves have certainly had his number having faced him twice and scored seven earned runs including four home runs in just 7 1/3 innings against him going back to last September. Crowe owns a 5.66 ERA and 1.65 WHIP at home this season and averages only 4.1 innings per start here at PNC Park which might be a problem given the Pirates haven't had a day off since June 21st and their bullpen has already worked seven innings in the first two games of this series. Take Atlanta (9*). |
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07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the D'Backs most recent game - a 5-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as they open a series at home against the Rockies. Jon Gray will make his third start for the Rockies since returning from a stint on the I.L. He's held up well in his last two outings but I expect him to struggle here. Note that Gray has posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in four of those games. The D'Backs will be getting their fourth look at Gray already this season and sixth going back to last August. They've had some success against him, particularly here at home, where they most recent chased him after scoring five runs, four of them earned, over six innings in a 7-2 victory on April 30th. With Gray averaging less than five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Rockies awful bullpen which owns a 5.50 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has been pitching reasonably well of late but finds himself in a bit of a tough spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a fifth straight turn in the rotation. Kelly's overall numbers are fine this season but there's no question, the Rockies have had his number, already facing him twice this year and scoring eight earned runs on 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Kelly's last four starts against Colorado have resulted in 9, 14, 10 and 12 total runs. Behind Kelly is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.06 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with just four saves converted compared to five blown here at home this season. Worse still, against division opponents, the Arizona 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with three saves converted and eight blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-21 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the A's and Astros open their series in Houston on Tuesday night. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on Bassitt all season, even during a tough stretch to open the campaign. He brings excellent form into this start having posted a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on five days' rest. Bassitt has certainly held his own on the road, where he has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, with the 'under' cashing in five of his nine starts. While he hasn't been great in his career against the Astros, given his current form I think Bassitt can overcome his previous struggles against them here. The A's bullpen got a much-needed off day yesterday and checks in sporting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road this season. Interestingly, they've converted 15 saves while blowing just five in night games this season. Left-hander Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's currently one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. In three home starts he has recorded a sparkling 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, in five nighttime starts he has posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The A's got two looks at Valdez last season and never figured him out, managing just three earned runs in 14 innings. Like the A's, the Astros bullpen also enjoyed an off day on Monday. The Houston relief corps has been at their best against division opponents this season, posting a collective 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 126 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs are obviously reeling right now, having not won a game since June 24th. After getting blown out 13-3 in the opener of this series last night, I look for them to bounce back and at the very least take this one down to the wire on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. Like the rest of his team, he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 3-6 team record in nine starts. Note that he has lasted more than 5 1/3 innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That's concerning as the Phillies bullpen has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Despite last night's victory, the Phils are still 10 games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. While it's not saying much, he has been better at home this season than on the road, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He'll likely be on a short leash here after struggling in his last several starts but that's not a bad thing as the Cubs bullpen has recorded a terrific 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Note that Arrieta will be pitching on five days' rest here. The last four times he's done so he has allowed just seven earned runs in 21 innings of work. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 6-2 loss to the Twins yesterday as the scoring simply started too late. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night as the Royals open an Interleague series against the Reds. Vladimir Gutierrez will get the call for Cincinnati. He owns a 4.77 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest. Considering he has posted an ugly ERA north of eight to go along with an 1.89 WHIP over his last three outings there's reason for concern as he prepares to face the Royals here. Behind Gutierrez is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Also note that the Reds haven't had an off day since June 23rd. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his ninth consecutive start on four days' rest. Note that Minor has recorded a 5.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Over his last three trips to the hill he has posted an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has posted a collective 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at night this season, converting 10 saves to go along with seven blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Marlins are coming off a wild, high-scoring extra innings loss in Atlanta yesterday but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Walker Buehler will get the start for the Dodgers in Monday's series opener. He has struggled in two previous starts here in Miami but those came long enough ago that I'm willing to take a flyer here (his last start in Miami came in August of 2019). He didn't give up a single earned run in two other previous outings against the Marlins in Los Angeles. Back to this season though, Buehler has been outstanding on the road, posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, averaging just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season and will be pitching on five days' rest for the first time since June 19th when he gave up just two earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in Arizona. The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been as dominant on the road as it has been at home but has certainly pitched well so far on this trip, entering yesterday's game sporting a collective ERA of 0.40 and a 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. L.A.'s relief corps checks in with a 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in night games this season. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, he has posted a 2.20 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. I also like the fact that Rogers will be making his third straight start on at least five days' rest. The Miami bullpen has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season with eight converted saves and four blown. Take the under (10*). |