Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Angels after they evened the series at one game apiece with a victory last night. We were set to back Angels starter Jose Quintana before last Saturday's game against the Twins got postponed due to Covid protocols involving Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the veteran Quintana looks to shake off a rough start to the season. Keep in mind, Quintana has a lot to prove this year as he takes a $2.5M paycut with the Angels after being cut loose by the Cubs. He had a terrific spring but has posted a ridiculous 16.20 ERA and 3.40 WHIP through two regular season outings. While he has recorded a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage, the exit velocity off opposing bats is a better than MLB average 85.0 mph. He has also posted an excellent 55.6% ground ball percentage (we are talking about a small sample size here). Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Texas. He's been riding the coattails of his All-Star season in 2018 when he finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. The fact is, that's really been his only impressive campaign at the big league level. He's 0-3 through three starts this season, recording a 47.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity while also posting poor 27.3% and 31.8% line drive and fly ball percentages, respectively, both north of the MLB average. Take out that one outlier season in 2018 and his numbers across the board are actually quite awful. Here, he faces an Angels lineup that entered last night's action hitting a collective .261 against right-handed starting pitching. Note that with last night's loss, Texas is now a miserable 15-45 in its last 60 road games against A.L. West opponents. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The opener of this series between the Blue Jays and Red Sox features two underrated starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the ball for Toronto. He's a bonafide ace but I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are paying him $20M per season for a reason and he's off to another fine start here in 2021. Remember, Ryu finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 19th in N.L. MVP voting two years ago and then finished third in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 13th in A.L. MVP voting last season. While we're talking about a very small sample size, Ryu is trending toward a career-best in terms of exit velocity off opposing bats, line drive percentage and ground ball percentage. For his career, Ryu is better than the MLB averages in virtually all of the key advanced stats we like to look at it, considerably so when it comes to many. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Just two years ago, he finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Rodriguez is off to a fine start here in 2021, recording a 30.0% strikeout percentage and 2.5% walk percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a terrific 29.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win over the White Sox but prior to that had been held to four runs or less in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have scored five runs or less in five straight games and a grand total of two runs in their last two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers -181 v. Mariners | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a terrific bounce-back spot for the Dodgers off a rare two-game losing streak. Note that they've gone 39-11 the last 50 times they've come off two losses in their last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game on average in that situation. They'll send Julio Urias to the hill for this one. He had a fantastic spring but is off to a fairly mediocre start to the regular season. On a positive note, Urias has limited opposing hitters to a 30.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity. His strikeouts are down slightly but so are his walks. While he has given up three home runs in just 18 2/3 innings I'm not all that concerned by that as we should see some positive regression to the mean given he has posted a career 2.0% home run percentage (compared to the MLB average of 3.3%). Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He had a miserable spring and has picked up right where he left off here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of eight. Gonzalez has been hit hard to the tune of a 45.1% hard-hit ball percentage (the MLB average is 38.7%) and an exit velocity off opposing bats of 92.0 mph (MLB average is 88.5 mph). While I certainly expect him to turn things around at some point, this isn't an ideal matchup against a dangerous Dodgers lineup that is poised for a breakout following a couple of off days at the plate. Despite a poor batting average, Los Angeles has averaged 5.6 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We have an excellent pitching matchup to open this series on Monday night in San Diego with the Brewers handing the ball to their ace Brandon Woodruff against Joe Musgrove of the Padres. We've been singing Woodruff's praises in the early going this season, cashing with the 'under' in his outing against the Cubs in Chicago two starts back and with the Brewers in a blowout win over those same Cubs last week. Woodruff owns sparkling numbers across the board but that's really nothing new as he's done nothing but impress since breaking into the big leagues in 2017. Woodruff held opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average in 73 2/3 innings of work last season and has limited opponents to an even better .169 batting average this season. While his hard-hit ball percentage has crept up a bit in the early going this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a greater rate than the MLB average while he's also been considerably better than the average in strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage (in fact, he's yet to allow a single home run this season). Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 starts under the lights with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He of course is just two starts removed from a no-hitter against the Rangers. While he not surprisingly regressed in his next outing he still owns terrific overall numbers this season. Musgrove has held opposing hitters to a ridiculously low .109 batting average and .154 babip. While we can certainly anticipate some regression in those departments moving forward, he does draw another favorable matchup against a Brewers lineup that is missing key cogs including Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Musgrove recorded a stellar 33.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season and he's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, recording a 35.9% hard-hit ball percentage. He's also posted a terrific 57.5% ground ball percentage - well north of the MLB average - building off his success in that department last season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. When we last saw the Angels they were busting out of a two-game slide, scoring 10 runs in a rout of the Twins on Friday night. Covid protocols derailed the rest of that series, however, but they return to the field to host the division-rival Rangers on Monday night. Texas has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games and will send Kohei Arihara to the mound on Monday. He had a fine spring and has held up well through three regular season starts as well, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Arihara isn't going to miss many bats, with a 12.3% strikeout percentage so far but he also won't hand out a lot of free passes, recording a miniscule 1.8% walk percentage in his first 14 2/3 big league innings. Opponents have hit .255 against Arihara but he's allowed just a single home run to date. We're higher on Angels starter Dylan Bundy than most. He quietly got his career back on track with a solid 2020 campaign, his first with the Angels, that saw him finish ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, limiting opposing hitters to a .211 batting average while posting above-average numbers in both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Bundy has also been better than the MLB average in both hard-hit ball percentage (32.0%), exit velocity off opposing bats (87.0 mph) and line drive percentage (18.0%). Now he faces a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .212 against right-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 49-26 with an average total of just 8.2 runs when Texas plays with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. I can't help but think White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is thinking Cy Young or bust this season after finishing top-seven in award voting in each of the last two seasons. He's off to a tremendous start through three outings this season with his strikeout percentage up and his walk percentage and home run percentage down compared to a still-stellar 2020 campaign. Opponents hit just .184 against him last season and they're batting a paltry .143 against him this season. We've also seen Giolito record a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage, well south of the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with the moneyline price set between +125 and -125 as is likely to be the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 6.7 runs. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's an underrated big league starter in my opinion and is certainly off to a solid start this season. Eovaldi has recorded a very impressive 31.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 63.8% ground ball percentage ranks near the top of the majors. While his walks are up through three starts, that doesn't mean a whole lot when you consider he posted a stellar 3.5% walk percentage in 2020. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series on Friday night before things settled down considerably in last night's 1-0 Astros victory (we won with the 'under' in that game). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday afternoon as the Astros send Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Nick Margevicius. Odorizzi was of course a big offseason acquisition for the Astros as they're paying him $9M to be a big part of their rotation this season. He's off to a slow start but we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean moving forward given some of the gawdy advanced stats he has posted. Odorizzi has recorded a 61.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 15.4% ground ball percentage and a 38.5% fly ball percentage, all far worse than the MLB average. Note that the Mariners entered last night's game hitting just .243 against right-handed starters and certainly didn't help their cause in that department against Zack Greinke. Nick Margevicius was serviceable for the Mariners last season, his first with the club after starting his career with the Padres. Like Odorizzi, he's off to a bit of a tough start here in 2021 but should benefit from facing a depleted Astros lineup missing the likes of Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. It is encouraging to see that Margevicius' strikeouts are up while his walks are down compared to last year, even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The A's have had their way with the Tigers in this series and while that should continue on Sunday afternoon, I believe there's value backing the 'under' as Detroit starter Matt Boyd is deserving of respect in the midst of a strong start to the season. Boyd's offseason work was well-publicized entering the 2021 campaign and so far all of that work has paid dividends as he's been terrific through three starts, posting solid numbers across the board in the majority of the key advanced stat categories we look at. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Boyd's walks are down while he's recorded a stellar 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph opponents exit velocity, not to mention a 19.0% fly ball percentage. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I've been higher than most on A's starter Chris Bassitt, who is admittedly off to a slow start to the season after finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting a year ago. We did see signs of Bassitt turning things around as we cashed with him against the D'Backs in his last start. His walks and home runs allowed are up while his strikeouts are down but he has held opponents to a .246 batting average and has posted respectable numbers in terms of hard-hit ball, ground ball and fly ball percentages. Against a light-hitting Tigers club that is without veteran Miguel Cabrera, look for further progression from Bassitt today. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams settled in extra innings yesterday. There's little reason to expect anything other than another pitcher's duel on Sunday as the Indians look to snap their skid with ace Shane Bieber on the mound while the Reds turn to veteran Wade Miley. Bieber is off to a fine start this season but there's still room for improvement after he won the A.L. Cy Young Award last year and finished fourth in A.L. MVP voting. I say there's room for improvement as Bieber has recorded a 9.5% walk percentage - well north of his career average of 5.3%. Elsewhere across the board, Bieber has been terrific as usual and with the Indians bats yet to wake up this season so he knows he needs to keep the Reds at bay in order to salvage a game in this series. Wade Miley, like Lance Lynn who we talked about earlier this week, seems to have discovered the fountain of youth. He's off to a tremendous start this season, holding opposing hitters to .108 hitting while recording a 25.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 83.3 mpg exit velocity. Miley has always been a ground ball pitcher and he's taken that to a new level in the early going this season, posting a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage. While those are gawdy numbers, they're not all that out of the ordinary as Miley has done an excellent job of keeping opposing hitters off balance in the twilight of his career. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Shane Bieber has pitched well through his first three starts this season but only has a 1-1 record to show for it. He'll be asked to once again serve as the stopper for the Indians on Sunday afternoon after they dropped the first two games in this series against in-state rival Cincinnati. I'll get behind Bieber here, noting that for as well as he's pitched in the early going this season, there's still room for improvement. He has recorded an uncharacteristic 9.5% walk percentage, well north of his career average in that category. I certainly look for him to settle down going forward and having posted a team record of 3-0 in three career starts against the Reds, with a 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, I'm confident he can shine in this matchup. Wade Miley has posted some gawdy advanced stats for the Reds, in a very limited early season sample size, and while I do expect him to hold his own again here today, I do expect the Indians bats to scratch out enough offense to support Bieber. We can certainly anticipate some mild regression from Miley today when you consider he has posted a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage - and again, Cleveland shouldn't need a whole lot of offense as long as Bieber holds up his end of the bargain, as he should. Despite dropping the first two games in this series, the Indians have still managed to split the last six matchups between these two teams in Cincinnati. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Pirates took the first game of this series in blowout fashion last night (we won with the 'under'). I like the Brewers to get one back on Saturday as they go up against Buccos journeyman starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill is quite simply barely hanging on at the big league level - now pitching for his ninth different team since 2014. Things haven't been going particularly well for the veteran right-hander. He earned himself a $1M contract with the Pirates this year thanks to serviceable work with the Giants last year, in a very limited sample size. Through two starts with the Pirates, Cahill has posted an 8.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. It gets worse. He has recorded a 53.8% hard-hit ball percentage, 91.2 mpg exit velocity and a 34.6% fly ball percentage - all considerably worse than the MLB average. Cahill was once a true ground ball pitcher but after posting a ground ball percentage well north of 50% every year from 2015 to 2018 he hasn't come close to touching that number since. His strikeout rate has managed to improve the last couple of years but his home run percentage has also ballooned. With opponents teeing off to the tune of a .324 batting average against him in limited work this season, I look for the Brewers bats to come alive on Saturday. Milwaukee will counter with a veteran starter of its own in Brett Anderson. Unlike Cahill, he has settled in during his twilight years at the big league level. Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage throughout his career, including through two starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .243 against him through 10 innings of work here in 2021. While the Pirates have been playing better baseball lately, they're still likely to bring up the rear in the N.L. Central this season. Look for the Brewers to respond following last night's lopsided defeat. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 11-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers will send their ace (yes he's overtaken Clayton Kershaw in that role in my opinion) Walker Buehler to the mound against the Padres and rookie starter Ryan Weathers on Friday night. Buehler is off to a predictably solid start this season allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter in 12 innings of work. The best is yet to come as far as I'm concerned, however. Interestingly, Buehler's strikeout percentage is down considerably through two starts while he has also recorded an inflated 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage. We'll call for some positive regression to the mean here against a Padres club making the long trip back home from Pittsburgh. The Padres are expected to have Fernando Tatis back in the lineup on Friday night and while he will provide an emotional boost, it's not as if he was red hot at the dish prior to getting hurt. As I mentioned, San Diego will hand the ball to rookie Ryan Weathers, who will be making his first big league start. He's held his own at every level previously, and has already got his feet wet at the big league level this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings in relief duty - even recording a pair of saves along the way. While we're dealing with a fairly small sample size, the Dodgers have hit just .233 as a team against left-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 with the Padres coming off a win by four runs or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.4 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. J.T. Brubaker and Adrian Houser certainly aren't household names but I do expect them to do their part to keep this one 'under' the total on Friday night in Milwaukee. Brubaker has already been tagged for four home runs in just 15 innings of work this season after allowing only six long balls in 47 1/3 innings a year ago. I would certainly expect to see some positive regression to the mean in that department moving forward, noting that Brubaker is generally a ground ball pitcher with a better than MLB average ground ball percentage over his short career (47.5% compared to 42.8%). Brubaker has recorded an impressive 32.7% hard-hit ball percentage during his brief career and is trending right around that number in two starts this season (32.0%). Also note opposing hitters' exit velocity of just 86.6 mph - again better than the MLB average in that category. Adrian Houser has kept the ball in the park through two starts, allowing just one home run in 10 innings but he's had issues with his command, handing out six walks. After recording 8.0% and 8.5% walk percentages over the last two seasons, respectively, I do expect him to settle down. Like Brubaker, Houser does an excellent job of inducing ground balls with a career 55.7% ground ball percentage which balloons to an impressive 71.4% this season. Neither team has been tearing the cover off the baseball in the early going this season and with the Pirates coming off a high-scoring affair yesterday against San Diego, I believe we're being afforded a very generous total in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Giants took a chance on former Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani this season, paying him $6M to slide into their rotation. Through his first two starts with his new club, he hasn't disappointed, allowing just one earned run over 11 innings of work. The fact is, DeSclafani had one bad season with the Reds, that coming last year. While we're talking about a small sample size, his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks per nine innings are down considerably compared to last season. Note that for his career, DeSclafani has posted a 6.7% walk percentage, 1.5% lower than the MLB average. Through two outings this season he has recorded a 59.4% ground ball percentage which is certainly encouraging after he was sub-40% in that category a year ago. Daniel Castano will make his first start of the season for the Marlins. He struggled with his command during a brief stint with the big club last year, issuing 11 walks compared to just 12 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. We did see considerable improvement during Spring Training, however, as Castano posted a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings of work. While that certainly doesn't always equate to success during the regular season, I'm willing to take a flyer on him as he faces a Giants club that has hit just .196 against left-handed starting pitching so far this season. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Giants coming off a win this season, with those games totaling an average of just 4.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -153 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Detroit at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This spot sets up nicely for the A's as they return home following an encouraging 4-1 road trip to host a Tigers club that is in for a letdown off a surprising series sweep in Houston. Detroit certainly got behind manager A.J. Hinch in his return to Houston, delivering three straight wins by a combined 20-8 margin. I still don't think the Tigers are actually as good as their 6-6 record would indicate, though, and expect them to fall short in Thursday's series-opener in Oakland. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for the Tigers. He has labored through his first two starts this season, failing to make it through the sixth inning in either of them. After recording a 40.5% fly ball percentage in 32 big league innings last year he's right on course again through two starts in 2021, posting a 41.4% fly ball percentage. While we are talking about a fairly small sample size, he has now posted a 6.9% home run percentage during his big league career, more than twice the MLB average in that category. After a shaky season debut, Sean Manaea settled in and delivered a clutch performance in Houston last week, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-2 A's victory. While he's certainly had some ups and downs, the A's have never given up on Manaea since he broke into the bigs in 2016 and I do feel he can be a solid contributor near the top of their rotation this year. Note that Manaea has been better than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage, ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage in the early going this season. Opponents are hitting .286 against him through two starts but I would certainly expect some positive regression to the mean in that department as Manaea has limited opposing hitters to a .248 batting average over the course of his career. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen seen superb pitching in this series so far with Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito dueling two nights ago before Carlos Rodon threw his no-hitter last night. We have another fine pitching matchup here on Thursday as Aaron Civale goes for the Indians against veteran Lance Lynn for the White Sox. Civale has quietly put together two outstanding starts to open the season, allowing just five hits and four earned runs over 14 2/3 innings of work. He's always been a solid ground ball pitcher and that has held true this season. The fact that he has limited opposing hitters to a paltry 83.8 mpg exit velocity and a 12.1% line drive percentage is certainly encouraging. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn seems to have discovered the fountain of youth as he only seems to get better with age. While we're still dealing with a very small sample size, his strikeouts are up while his walks are down. Lynn has limited opponents to a 34.3% hard-hit ball percentage and has yet to allow a home run in 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 in Lynn's last 19 starts on five or more days' rest, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen nothing but low-scoring games between these two teams so far this week, although yesterday's double-bill was obviously of the seven-inning variety. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Red Sox send Garrett Richards to the hill against Michael Pineda of the Twins. Richards has been cut loose by two teams over the last three years so perhaps it's no surprise that he's struggled with the Red Sox as well. Through two starts he has allowed a .323 opponents batting average, a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage (not to mention a 92.4 mpg exit velocity off the bat) and 32% fly ball percentage. He's been above the MLB average in terms of home run percentage in each of the last three seasons and so far this season he's been tagged for two long balls in just seven innings of work. While the Twins are slumping at the plate right now, Richards might be just what they need to get back on track. Pineda owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through two starts this season but I certainly don't expect him to continue to post those stellar numbers. He has actually been one of the most hittable starters in baseball since a terrific two-year stretch at the start of his career. So far this season he has recorded an ugly 51.6% hard-hit ball percentage and now runs into a hot Red Sox lineup that has contributed to a nine-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in this matchup last night but I like the way it sets up again on Wednesday as the Braves try to put an end to their three-game slide. Nick Neidert will take the ball for Miami. After turning in a fine spring, he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his regular season debut, issuing five walks but giving up just one earned run on three hits. The Braves offense is obviously among the best in baseball when it's hot. While we did see Atlanta do some damage last night, scoring eight runs on 11 hits, that was in a game that got out of hand early on. Tonight, I look for Neidert to keep the Braves bats at bay long enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is off to another fine start having posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through two starts this season. It's easy to tell when Morton is on top of his game as he draws ground balls at a high rate. So far this season he has posted a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a ridiculously low 3.4% fly ball percentage. His 27.6% hard-hit ball percentage is terrific as well, along with his 87 mpg average exit velocity. Morton won't rack up a ton of strikeouts at this stage of his career but he also won't hand out many free passes of yield many easy at-bats. While the Marlins exploded for 14 runs last night they had plated just 13 runs in their previous six games combined. Remember, they scored 12 runs in a win over Tampa Bay back on April 3rd but managed just one run in their next game on that occasion. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw the Giants long eight-game 'under' streak come to an end in last night's 7-6 victory over the Reds. Now I look for them to post a second straight 'over' result as they wrap up their series with the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Mahle will take the ball for Cincinnati. He got in very limited work during Cincinnati's exhibition schedule in March and didn't fare well. He's held his own through two regular season starts but there is still some reason for concern entering Wednesday's outing. Note that we're dealing with small sample sizes when talking about Mahle's opponents' batting average going back to the start of last season. In 2020, opponents hit just .198 off Mahle while they've hit a poor .129 against him through two starts here in 2021. However, he allowed three home runs in 5 2/3 innings of work during Spring Training and has already posted a 5.4% home run percentage this season. Note that he's been worse than the MLB average in that department over the course of his career (4.0%). Mahle has also posted an ugly 16.2% walk percentage this season - again, a category where he's worse than the MLB average over the course of his 4+ year MLB career. With the Giants showing signs of life at the dish last night I think we'll see some carry-over effect against Mahle today. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. He's generally been on the decline since a stellar 2016 campaign that saw him make the All-Star Game and finish sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 26th in N.L. MVP voting. While Cueto's ERA and WHIP are stellar through two starts, he has actually recorded a poor 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 33.3% line drive percentage, which in my opinion means he's been a bit lucky to this point. Note that Cueto has yet to give up a home run through two starts after having posted home run percentages of 3.3% or higher in each of the last four seasons (the MLB average is 2.8%). I certainly wouldn't expect his 25.9% strikeout percentage to continue having recorded a high of 20.2% over his last three seasons. Note that we've now seen seven of the last nine meetings in this series go 'over' the total following last night's 13-run outburst. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs evened this series at a game apiece with last night's 3-2 win. I look for the Brewers to get it right back on Wednesday, however, as they send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Jake Arrieta. Burnes is part of Milwaukee's underrated 1-2 punch at the top of its rotation that also includes Brandon Woodruff, who was sharp again last night. Burnes was terrific in the spring and he's been effective through two regular season starts as well, allowing only two hits and one earned run while posting a ridiculous 20:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings of work. Note that opponents have now hit just .227 off of Burnes over his 3+ year big league career and he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories we look at, considerably so in some including strikeout percentage where he is 31.9% compared to the 22.8% MLB average. He has posted an incredible 26.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.9% ground ball percentage through two starts - again owning numbers considerably better than the MLB average in both categories during his career. Jake Arrieta gets the nod for the Cubs. Unlike that of Burnes, Arrieta's career is winding down and the numbers show it. While he does check in 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA through two starts this season there is reason for concern. He has yet to allow a home run this season but has recorded a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and an ugly 36.8% fly ball percentage. In other words, it's only a matter of time before Arrieta starts giving up the long ball. Note that he's been worse than the league average in each of the last four seasons in terms of home run percentage. That's not to mention the fact that Arrieta's strikeout percentage hasn't been higher than 19.1% in five years. The MLB average for that category is 20.7%. Finally, opponents have hit .283 and .298 against him over the last two seasons, respectively and are hitting .283 off of him again this year. Starting pitchers aren't everything when it comes to baseball handicapping, but in this case, I feel the Brewers have enough of an edge to warrant a play. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels plated 10 runs in last night's rout of the Royals, marking the fifth time in their last seven games they've put up seven or more runs. It's worth noting that they average just 4.5 runs per game in their last 18 contests when priced as a short favorite of -150 or less. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals. Kansas City has never given up on Duffy despite the fact that he's been a very average starter for them since breaking into the bigs back in 2011. They're paying him $15.5 million this season and he's off to a fine start having tossed six shutout innings to earn a victory in his 2021 debut last week. In seven career starts against the Angels, Duffy has posted a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the 'under' going 4-2-1. While the Halos have been piling up plenty of runs this season they've yet to post three consecutive 'over' results. The last time they came off back-to-back 'overs' they were involved in a game that totaled just six runs against the Astros, with Dylan Bundy on the mound for that one as well. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of last week's stellar pitcher's duel between Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Woodruff at Wrigley Field (we won with the 'under' in that game). Neither pitcher gets enough credit. Hendricks has kept opposing hitters off balance throughout his career, finishing top-10 in N.L. Cy Young Award voting on two different occasions (including ninth last year), not to mention seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2014. He owns a career hard-hit ball percentage a full five percentage points lower than the MLB average and has recorded a stunning 19.2% in that department through two starts this year. We already know Hendricks is a ground ball pitcher and so far this season he's posted a miniscule 7.7% fly ball rate. Of course, we'll see some regression to the mean but he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories throughout his career. Brandon Woodruff is a star in the making at the top of the Brewers rotation. He's been dominant through two starts this season, picking up right where he left off last year. Like Hendricks, Woodruff is above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .230 batting average over the course of his 4+ year big league career. The 'under' has gone 5-2 in his seven career starts against the Cubs as he's recorded a 3.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Brewers offense has been imposing lately, resulting in three consecutive 'overs' entering this game. I expect a different story to unfold tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins rallied for a 5-3 extra innings victory to open this series in Atlanta last night, compounding the Braves sluggish start to the season. While we saw signs of life over the weekend, the Braves still aren't hitting with much consistency and I believe that helps set us up well with the 'under' on Tuesday night. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been quietly consistent over the course of his 3+ year big league career, getting marginally better with each passing season. Lopez improved in both strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings last season, recording a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Through two starts this season, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings, he's been better than the MLB average in most key advanced stat categories. Opposing hitters are batting just .132 against him. Of course, we can anticipate some regression moving forward but we don't need him to be perfect to help keep this one 'under' the total on Tuesday. That's largely due to the fact that I'm anticipating a strong performance from Braves starter Max Fried. Like the rest of his team, Fried is off to a tough start this season, recording a 9.00 ERA and 2.43 WHIP through two starts, spanning just seven innings of work. Keep in mind, Fried finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 18th in N.L. MVP voting last season and had a terrific spring, posting a 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP in 13 innings pitched. We can certainly anticipate him turning things around sooner rather than later. Note that the Marlins have scored three runs or less in eight of nine games this season (excluding extra innings). Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up for the A's, who got off to a slow start this season but are enjoying some good vibes after securing their first series victory with two consecutive wins in Houston over the weekend. The D'Backs are also coming off an impressive series win over the Reds thanks to a perfect weekend. I simply feel that Oakland has considerably more upside and I like the way the pitching matchup sets up on Monday. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. He hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for this season, going winless with an ERA north of five through his first two outings. However, this is a guy that finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and is certainly capable of bouncing back against the D'Backs on Monday. Note that Bassitt has allowed two home runs in just 11 1/3 innings of work this season but has proven capable of keeping the ball in the park during his MLB career. He gave up just 0.9 home runs per nine innings last season. There are a number of areas where we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to Bassitt this season, and speaking of regression, I do feel some of that is in order when it comes to the D'Backs offense, which just scored 20 runs in a three-game series against the Reds. Madison Bumgarner will get the nod for Arizona. He continues to wind down what has been a tremendous career, but not on a positive note. Through two starts this season he has recorded an ugly 54.8% hard-hit ball percentage and a staggering 43.8% line drive percentage - nearly double the MLB average in the latter category. Note that the A's have gone 46-18 in their last 64 games against left-handed starting pitching, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 runs per game in the process. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Angels are still licking their wounds following Saturday's 15-1 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays (we lost with the 'under' in that game). I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Here, Bundy will face a Royals club that is coming off an extra innings victory over the White Sox yesterday but has been held to four runs or less in five straight games since exploding out of the gates against a bad Rangers pitching staff to open the season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He finished eighth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was roughed up in his 2021 debut against the Rangers but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Note that Singer posted excellent numbers across the board during his rookie campaign. While he was chased early from his first start this season he still managed to record impressive 10% line drive and fly ball percentages, not to mention a 70% ground ball percentage after excelling in those three categories last year as well. While the Angels do possess a potent lineup, I do feel they're in for some regression at the dish and we saw signs of that as they struggled to get to Blue Jays starter Steven Matz on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. The Nationals have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games overall which is perhaps not all that surprising considering they're coming off a series against the pitching-strong Dodgers over the weekend. There is reason for optimism that we'll see the Nats' lineup break out sooner rather than later though. Victor Robles enters this series riding a three-game hitting streak. Trea Turner was 4-for-8 at the dish over the last two games. Juan Soto is Juan Soto and was 4-for-8 including two home runs in the first two games against the Dodgers prior to yesterday's 0-for-4 day. Ryan Zimmerman was also 4-for-8 in the first two against L.A. before running into Clayton Kershaw yesterday. You get the picture. There is concern for the Nats' here though as starter Erick Fedde has yet to really figure things out at the big league level. Since breaking into the majors back in 2017, opposing hitters have batted a collective .283 against him. That's not to mention his career 43.6% hard-hit ball percentage - well north of the MLB average. In his 2021 debut last week opposing hitters posted a 91.9 mph exit velocity, certainly a concern as he prepares to face a dangerous Cardinals lineup that will be in a foul mood off consecutive losses against the Brewers over the weekend. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He has got in limited work over the last couple of seasons. He was good but not great in his season debut against a light-hitting Marlins club. Note that Gant has posted worse than MLB average hard-hit ball and line drive percentages over the course of his career. He's always had issues with his command, with a career 11.6% walk percentage and while the Nats' have been struggling at bit at the plate, they're more than capable of punishing Gant for his mistakes tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -155 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have already assured themselves of a series victory over the Phillies by taking the first two games in this series but you can be sure they want to complete the sweep on Sunday night after getting swept themselves in a three-game series in Philadelphia last weekend. We've finally seen signs of life from the Braves slumping 2-through-4 hitters in this series with Freddie Freeman homering in each of the last two games, Ozzie Albies collecting an extra-base hit in consecutive games and Marcell Ozuna chipping in with a couple of hits and a walk. Tonight, Atlanta will be facing Phillies starter Matt Moore. He labored through his first start of the season, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while allowing four hits, four walks and two earned runs. Note that Moore struggled mightily in his last two full big league seasons in 2017 and 2018 (he pitched only 10 innings in 2019 and didn't pitch at all in 2020), allowing opponents to hit .283 and .305, respectively, while recording ugly hard-hit ball percentages of 44.9% and 48.3% not to mention line drive and fly ball percentages both north of the MLB average. The Braves are counting on veteran left-hander Drew Smyly to be a part of their rotation this season, paying him $11 million. He was solid in his season debut, giving up just two earned runs on four hits over six innings while striking out eight. While I'm not all that high on Smyly in the long-term picture, there's no denying that he's held his own in limited work going back to the start of last season. Given he had a terrific spring and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, I'm willing to take a flyer on him here in this key early season division matchup with the Phillies. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Indians bats woke up and delivered an 11-run performance in last night's blowout win. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance on Sunday, however. Keep in mind, prior to last night's game, the Indians had scored just eight runs combined over their last three games. Tigers starter Jose Urena didn't fare well in his season debut last week as he got lit up by the Twins at Comerica Park. There's a reason the Marlins stuck it out for six seasons with Urena and why the Tigers are paying him north of $3 million dollars here in 2021. This is a matchup he can handle against a very average Indians lineup. Logan Allen was effective over five innings in his first outing of the season for the Indians. He'll be facing a Tigers club that boasts one of the weakest offenses in baseball, having topped out at six runs this season, scoring four runs or less in six of eight contests to date. Both bullpens should have virtually all hands on deck after last night's lopsided game. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-7 | Win | 103 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates smashed the Cubs last night but I'm anticipating a more tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. Trevor Williams will face his former team for the Cubs. He was sharp in his debut with the Cubbies, allowing just two earned runs over six innings against a good Brewers offense. He's certainly comfortable pitching here at PNC Park and faces a Pirates offense that ranks as one of the league's worst, even after last night's breakout performance. JT Brubaker will counter for Pittsburgh. He labored a bit through his first start but still gave up just one earned run through four innings of work. Like the Pirates, the Cubs offense has sputtered out of the gates and in this rubber match on Sunday afternoon, I suspect runs will be difficult to come by once again. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a bit of an overreaction in the betting marketplace to the Blue Jays playing their home games in hitter-friendly Dunedin this season with the totals being set at 10 or higher in all three games in this series so far. The Blue Jays still aren't hitting so if they're going to snap their four-game skid on Saturday night, they're likely going to need to get some solid pitching from their staff, led by newly-acquired Steven Matz. Matz pitched well in his season debut, picking up where he left off after a solid spring. Note that the 'under' has gone 36-17 when Matz takes the ball off a team loss over the course of his career with those games producing an average total of 7.7 runs. I would expect some regression from the Angels offense here after it scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Veteran starter Jose Quintana takes the ball for Los Angeles, noting that the 'under' has gone 75-44 when he starts following a team win over the course of his career with those contests totaling an average of just 8.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Mariners v. Twins -170 | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Seattle at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This is a solid spot to back the Twins noting that they've gone an impressive 14-2 the last 16 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscoring opponents by a wide 2.6-run margin on average. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a negative momentum fade having gone 33-72, outscored by 1.9 runs per game on average after losing four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Note also that the Twins have outscored opponents by 2.3 runs per game on average the last 15 times they've come off a game where they've given up two runs or less, as is the case here. Look for Minnesota's red hot start to the season to continue here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 9 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a slugfest between these two teams in yesterday's series-opener as the Rays fell behind early but rallied for a convincing 10-5 victory. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in this quick turnaround spot on Saturday afternoon as both teams send starting pitchers with a lot to prove to the mound in Domingo German for the Yankees and Chris Archer for the Rays. German lasted just three innings in his regular season debut against Toronto last week - his first big league start since 2019. We should see him get stretched out a little more here and while the Rays offense looks pretty imposing after yesterday's 10-run outburst, they've actually been quite inconsistent so far this season, scoring two runs or less in three of their first seven contests. Chris Archer was once considered an ace but injuries have taken their toll and he's back at it for the first time since 2019 as well here in 2021. Archer did pitch two innings in relief against the Marlins last week, and got hit hard. I would anticipate a solid bounce-back effort here on Saturday, however, as he makes his first big league start since August of 2019. The Yankees have topped out at seven runs this season and have been held to five runs or less in five of their first seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of a Phillies 4-0 victory last weekend and I'm anticipating another low-scoring contest on Friday night in Atlanta. Zack Wheeler will once again take the ball for the Phillies. He finished 12th in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2021. Wheeler allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings against the Braves last week, striking out 10 along the way. He is above average in nearly all of the key advanced pitching stat categories, most notably allowing a 2.2% home run percentage and a 34% hard-hit ball percentage over the course of his career, both considerably better than the MLB averages. The same goes for Braves starter Charlie Morton. That's even more impressive when you consider how poorly he performed early in his career. Morton owns a career 35.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 52.7% ground ball percentage and a staggering 18.9% fly ball percentage. He has recorded a strikeout percentage of at least 24.7% in each of the last five seasons, much higher than the MLB average of 20.2%. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Phillies come off three or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.5 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Friday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive wins to grab a series win over the D'Backs at Coors Field. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as they head to San Francisco to face the Giants. Austin Gomber will take the ball for the Rockies. He got in limited work with the Cardinals last season, pitching just 29 innings but faring well, limiting opposing hitters to a .190 batting average while recording an impressive 0.8% home run percentage and a 17.3% fly ball percentage, both considerably better than average when compared to the rest of MLB - but again, we're talking about a very small sample size. After issuing a whopping seven walks over just three innings in his regular season debut with Colorado last week, there is reason for concern here. Note that he also recorded a scary 57.1% fly ball percentage in his 2021 debut. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. While he allowed just three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in his season debut there was some reason for concern as he posted a 50% hard-hit ball percentage, also giving up six hits and three walks along the way. Note that Cueto is on the decline, having posted his two highest base-on-ball percentages of his entire career over the last two seasons while also seeing his home run percentage creep up considerably over that same stretch. He also posted a 42.9% line drive percentage in his first start this year, so opposing hitters were certainly making good contact. The 'over' has gone 30-13 when Cueto takes the hill at home with the total set at 8.0 or 8.5, with those games averaging 9.6 total runs. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 when the Giants come off a five-game stretch in which they batted .200 or worse as a team over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 10.4 runs on average. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 4:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Brewers 4-2 extra innings victory over the Cubs yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. The Brewers will send another of their promising young arms to the mound for the opener of this series. Corbin Burnes quietly finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and turned in an exceptional spring prior to dominating a solid Twins lineup in his season debut last week. Burnes checks in above average in virtually all of the key advanced pitching stat categories and as I said, he was positively dominant in his first start of the season, not allowing a single line drive and recording an exceptional 66.7% ground ball percentage. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He might be catching the Brewers at the right time as they're by no means tearing the cover off the ball right now. Were it not for two long balls from Lorenzo Cain yesterday they might have been held off the scoreboard entirely against Chicago. Wainwright is coming off a 2020 campaign in which he improved on his hits allowed per nine innings and walks per nine innings considerably. While he was ripped for six earned runs and didn't last three innings against the red hot Reds bats in his season debut, he actually posted a respectable 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.1% ground ball percentage. He's been here before starting the Cardinals home opener and I expect him to pitch well enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Note that the 'under' is 28-11 in Wainwright's 39 career home starts when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, with those games totaling just 6.9 total runs on average. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Brewers last three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -104 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly a tough team to trust right now on the heels of four straight losses including a wild, 10-8 setback against the D'Backs last night. They'll hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela tonight after he was lit up for seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his season debut. Senzatela took a step forward last season, going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, cutting down on his walks considerably - a theme that continued in the spring this year. On a positive note he did issue only one walk in his season debut and also posted a 29.4% hard-hit ball percentage. His opposing starter tonight, Madison Bumgarner, also got hit hard in his first start of the season, which is pretty much par for the course based on what we've seen from him over the last couple of seasons. Bumgarner was well above the MLB average in home run percentage and walk percentage last season. He has posted a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40% in each of the last two seasons and last week against the Padres that number reached 53.8%. By contrast, the MLB average in that category is 38.7%. Rockies starter Senzatela owns a 24-11 team record in 35 career starts at Coors Field with Colorado outscoring the opposition by 0.8 runs per game. Take Colorado (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. Both of today's starters are coming off uncharacteristically poor season debuts last week but I'm confident we'll see both get on track here today at Wrigley Field. Brandon Woodruff lasted only four innings in his first start against the Twins, struggling with his command throughout. Keep in mind, he's gotten better with each passing season and last year posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Through his four-year big league career he's been above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories and I'm confident he'll bounce back against a Cubs lineup that has yet to really get going this season. Kyle Hendricks finished ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even though he lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut, it's not as if he was hit hard. In that outing he posted a 22.2% hard-hit ball percentage, an 11.1% line drive percentage and an impressive 77.8% ground ball percentage. Like the Cubs, the Brewers are still struggling to score runs with consistency this season. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Woodruff's last seven starts against opponents that own winning record, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. The 'under' is also 16-5 in the Brewers last 21 road games against right-handed starters, with those contests totaling just 6.9 runs on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this short two-game set in Oakland last night as the Dodgers offense jumped ahead early and tacked on more offense late to push the game 'over' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as the A's look to earn some quick 'revenge' while Dodgers former ace (and now number-two guy behind Walker Buehler) Clayton Kershaw tries to bounce-back from a brutal Opening Day start in Colorado. Kershaw certainly wasn't at his best against the Rockies last time out, missing very few bats over the course of 5 2/3 laborous innings. Kershaw has been here before, though, with doubters coming out of the woodwork in droves. I'm confident we'll see him respond with a strong performance tonight - it helps that he's facing an A's club that hasn't hit well at all during an 0-5 slide to open the season. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He quietly finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. Bassitt has seen his walks per nine innings decrease in each of the last three seasons, not to mention the fact he's given up less than 1.0 home run per nine innings in two of those three campaigns. He worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 of 11 regular season starts last season and while he wasn't at his best in his first start this season, he still managed to give the A's 5 1/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs against a red hot Astros offense. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a miserable start this season after getting swept in a four-game series against the division-rival Astros. While I'm not ready to take a flyer on them just yet, I do expect them to do a better job of keeping the Dodgers offense at bay than they did against Houston and will back the 'under' in the opener of this mini two-game set on Monday night. Dustin May will take the ball for the Dodgers. He finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting last season and appeared to be rounding into form as the Dodgers exhibition schedule drew to a close, allowing just five earned runs in 19 innings of work while striking out 17 over his final three Spring Training outings, covering a span of 14 innings. Frankie Montas took a step back for the A's in 2020 after consistently pitching well in 2018 and 2019. On a positive note, he did see his strikeouts per nine innings rare increase for the second straight season to a career-high 10.2. He quite simply gave up too many hits, home runs and walks but I'm willing to chalk it up as an anomaly during what was certainly a strange Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The A's just aren't hitting right now and while the Dodgers have scored plenty, they're coming off a four-game series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Expect a different story to unfold in Oakland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Twins -143 v. Tigers | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off winning series' to open the season but I like the Twins to keep the positive momentum building on Monday afternoon at Comerica Park. Matt Shoemaker will make his first start for Minnesota. He got lit up in one exhibition start but was solid in three others and didn't issue a single walk over 12 1/3 innings of work, striking out eight batters along the way. In start contrast, Twins starter Jose Urena didn't miss many bats at all during the exhibition schedule, striking out just five batters and issuing nine walks in 14 innings pitched. While Urena will be making his first start with the Tigers, his career team record of 16-37 leaves a lot to be desired. After consecutive strong showings at the plate to start the season, we saw some regression from the Tigers yesterday as they managed only two hits in a blowout loss to the Indians. Look for the Twins to hand them a second straight loss on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -166 | 7-3 | Loss | -166 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Texas at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Royals yesterday and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them again on Sunday. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Rangers have been awful in the role of road underdog, now 5-23 in their last 28 opportunities, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 runs. Jordan Lyles doesn't figure to turn things around for them today, noting that he owns an awful 15-43 team record when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175 over the course of his career. The Royals have plated a whopping 25 runs through two games and while I'm not anticipating another offensive explosion on Sunday, I do expect Kansas City to do enough damage at the plate to secure a third straight victory. Take Kansas City (9*). |
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04-04-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games between these two N.L. Central clubs to open the season but I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high to keep that 'over' streak alive. Note that the Reds have averaged just 3.9 runs per game in 81 day games over the last 2+ seasons. They also average just 3.9 runs per game off a win over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-6 after the Cardinals are involved in a game that totals 15 runs or more over the last three seasons with those contests totaling just 7.2 runs on average. Keep in mind, the 'under' remains 15-12 in the last 27 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have somewhat surprisingly dropped the first two games of this series, only generating two runs on an improbable Pablo Sandoval pinch-hit home run on Thursday. While Atlanta is loaded with talent up and down its order, I'm not sure it can just flip a switch and start hitting. Zach Eflin will aim to shut down the Braves again on Sunday and he's certainly capable of doing it having given up just four hits and four earned runs against them in 12 1/3 innings of work last season. I do have confidence in Braves sophomore starter Ian Anderson on Sunday afternoon. Lost in the fact that the Braves bats have been silent is that the Phillies haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball either. Anderson gained plenty of big game experience in last year's postseason and should treat this as an equally important game with Atlanta off to an 0-2 start. Take the under (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Braves -107 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. It seems like the majority of bettors were all over the Braves in their season-opener against the Phillies and it didn't go particularly well as Atlanta fell behind early and ultimately fell in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. I do look for the Braves to bounce back on Saturday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Zack Wheeler. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has come off a one-run loss, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game in that situation. Better still, the Braves are 19-3 the last 22 times they've come off a game where they were held to two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 3.8 runs on average in that spot. While Charlie Morton's career numbers against the Phillies are ugly, he has only faced them twice since 2011 and has been reasonably effective in those two starts, giving up just three earned runs while posting a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings of work. He posted a perfect 2-0 team record in those two starts. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler does own a career winning record against Atlanta (6-5) but has generally labored through those starts, recording a 3.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He has posted a 2-4 team record in six starts against the Braves over the last two seasons, recording more than four strikeouts in only two of those six outings. The Braves were forced to use five bullpen arms in Thursday's opener but that's not a major concern following the off day on Friday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Rangers v. Royals -150 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Texas at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The Royals fell behind early but rallied to win a wild one by a 14-10 score on Opening Day. I look for them to make it two in a row over the Rangers on Saturday. Note that Texas is a miserable 5-22 in its last 27 games as a road underdog, outscored by 2.2 runs per game on average. Worse still, the Rangers are 2-15 when priced between +125 and +175, as is the case at the time of writing today, outscored by an average of 2.6 runs in that spot. Kohei Arihara will be making his big league debut for the Rangers on Saturday afternoon. He held up ok in four exhibition starts during Spring Training but was certainly nothing special, allowing 14 hits and two home runs while striking out only 11 in 14 innings of work. The Royals pose a stiff challenge with an improved lineup as evidenced by Thursday's offensive explosion. Kansas City starter Mike Minor shouldn't count on that same level of offensive support here, but he shouldn't need it. Minor had an up and down 2020 campaign but is a quality veteran starter that should give his team 5-6 solid innings of work on Saturday. During Spring Training, Minor settled down to work five effective innings against the Rockies in his final exhibition start, allowing just one earned run while striking out an exhibition-high six batters. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams in yesterday's season-opener as the Padres rallied from a big deficit to defeat the D'Backs 8-7. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Friday, however. Merrill Kelly will get the start for Arizona. He had a promising 2020 season cut short due to injury last year but all indications are that his velocity is back where it needs to be following thoracic outlet surgery last August. In two starts against the Padres last season, Kelly allowed just one earned run on nine hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. Both of those games stayed 'under' the total with just five and six runs. Kelly was worked at least six innings in five of seven career starts against San Diego. Padres prized offseason acquisition Blake Snell will get his first start with his new team on Friday. He looked good in Spring Training, working his way up to five innings pitched in his final exhibition start, allowing just one hit and no earned runs while striking out six and walking only one in that outing. All told, he allowed just five hits over 14 1/3 scoreless frames in March. I'm actually higher on the D'Backs offense than some but after plating seven runs yesterday, I look for some regression here tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Astros drummed the A's 8-1 in last night's season-opener but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night in Oakland. Cristian Javier will take the ball for Houston. He got in limited work during a Covid-shortened 2020 season, facing the A's twice. He didn't last beyond the fifth inning in either of those starts, allowing seven earned runs (and four home run) in just eight innings of work. Javier worked just three scoreless innings during Spring Training, allowing one hit and posting a 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Oakland. The A's went a perfect 3-0 in his three starts against the Astros last season. He was very effective in two regular season starts against Houston, allowing just four earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. However, he got lit up in a postseason start versus the Astros, chased from that game after just 4 1/3 innings. I'm willing to chalk up that poor performance to nerves and certainly anticipate a better performance from him here as he looks to help the A's earn their first win of the season. Last night's blowout loss should be easy for the A's to flush from their memory as there are going to be nights like that over the course of a long 162-game season. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Indians -181 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -181 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This may appear to be a bit of a steep price in favor of the Indians but not when you consider how dominant defending A.L. Cy Young winner Shane Bieber has been in recent years. Cleveland yielded the A.L. Central crown to the Twins last year but should be right back in contention here in 2021. Bieber already appears to be in midseason form, wrapping up Spring Training by allowing just eight hits and one earned run while striking out 15 and walking only three in his final two starts, spanning 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Indians have outscored opponents by 1.3 runs per game when Bieber starts on the road with a total set between 7 and 8.5 over the course of his career. The Tigers have won just 22 of 84 games as a home underdog over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.7 runs per game in that situation. Thursday's starter Matt Boyd is coming off a rough 2020 campaign. He was given the nod here on Opening Day due to his willingness to work on improving during the offseason and his general work ethic according to Tigers new manager A.J. Hinch. Note that Boyd owns a career 4.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Indians. Take Cleveland (9*). |
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10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with the same total we saw in Game 5 despite what I would consider to be a considerably weaker pitching matchup on Tuesday night. Blake Snell is a former Cy Young award winner and certainly a capable starter but the fact is, save for a dominant effort against the Blue Jays way back in the Wild Card play-in series, he has struggled. Snell has given up 12 walks and five home runs in four starts going back to the ALDS, covering a span of just 18 2/3 innings. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles and manager Dave Roberts has indicated he'll be stretched out a little bit in this one. Like Snell, he has struggled here in the postseason, allowing seven walks and three home runs in 7 2/3 innings. Both bullpens have given up their share of big hits in this series and throughout the playoffs. I'm confident playing the 'over' in this potential World Series clincher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Sunday. 11, 10, 8 and 15. Those are the total runs we've seen scored in the first four games of this series. I'll stick with the trend and play the 'over' again on Sunday night as the Dodgers and Rays get their second looks at Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw, respectively. Both bullpens are obviously weary at this point of the series, with this being the fifth game in six nights, an unlikely World Series scenario in these COVID times. Both offenses have come up big when they've had to throughout this series and there's little reason to expect anything different on Sunday. Maybe in Game 6 we'll see the total get bumped up, but for now we're dealing with a very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took back control of this series with a relatively easy 6-2 victory last night. I expect them to take full reins with another win on Saturday as they send Julio Urias to the hill against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. Urias has been sharp both as a starter and out of the bullpen and I expect him to be comfortable making this start on Saturday night as well. In four postseason appearances he has allowed just one earned run on seven hits in 16 innings of work. Meanwhile, Yarbrough hasn't been as sharp in the playoffs as he was during the regular season, albeit in limited work. Yarbrough has allowed 11 hits, three walks and three home runs in 10 2/3 innings here in the postseason. The Dodgers are a confident bunch right now. We won with the Rays in their lone victory in this series but here I believe L.A. is the play, and in fact the price could be even higher than it is. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as we see a true pitcher's duel in the making on Friday. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Rays against Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. Morton is a proven postseason performer and has certainly lived up to his billing here in these playoffs, allowing just one earned run in 15 2/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Buehler has been rock solid as well, giving up only two earned runs in 15 innings since the start of the NLDS. Both bullpens are fresh after a night off and I see this as a first team to three wins type of contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers offense staying hot in an 8-3 rout. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 2 in what should set up as a 'bullpen game' for both clubs. The Rays are hoping that lefty Blake Snell can keep the Dodgers bats at bay but the fact is he's struggled for much of the postseason and isn't likely to work deep into this ball game (Rays manager Kevin Cash elected to leave Tyler Glasnow in the game for 112 pitches last night to conserve his bullpen for this one). While the Rays 'pen has been terrific overall this season, it struggled in Games 4 through 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, but he's only likely to work a few innings. Even if the Rays can't get to him, I do believe they'll be able to do some damage against a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled apart from Julio Urias. After getting through a shaky first inning, Clayton Kershaw was able to keep the Rays bats off balance over the next five frames last night. I look for a different story to unfold tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:09 pm et on Tuesday. There are those that feel Clayton Kershaw is no longer the Dodgers ace with Walker Buehler taking over that bill here in 2020. I think we see a strong performance from Kershaw in the opener of the World Series on Tuesday night, however. I also expect the Dodgers bats to come up big against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. We saw Glasnow's walks per nine innings rise considerably compared to a year ago during the regular season and that trend has continued here in the postseason as he has issued eight walks while also allowing six home runs in 19 1/3 innings of work. I'm confident the Dodgers can make Glasnow pay for his command issues. While I do expect this to be a long series, I feel Los Angeles could be priced even higher than it is here in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is by all accounts the Dodgers last stand as they try to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the NLCS on Wednesday night. Los Angeles certainly showed plenty of fight late in last night's game - a tough 8-7 loss - and I look some carry-over from that performance here. If there's a Braves starter they can get to it's Kyle Wright, who takes the ball today. Wright pitched well in a spot start against the Marlins last round but he'll face a tougher challenge here. Note that he lasted at least six innings in just four of eight regular season starts and was tagged for at least four earned runs in three of those outings. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing just four hits and no earned runs while fanning 11 and walking just one in eight innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a lot of talk of 'juiced balls' thanks to a high-scoring start to the MLB Division Series'. I'm not buying it and expect a return to 'normal' as the Yankees and Rays play their third game in as many days on Wednesday. This series has obviously featured a ton of runs on the strength of plenty of long balls. I look for things to settle down in this one as two veteran starters take the hill in Masahiro Tanaka and Charlie Morton. Morton didn't get a start in the brief Wild Card round so he'll be eager to take the ball here. Keep in mind, this will be his ninth career playoff start having posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Tanaka will be making his tenth career playoff start having recorded an even better 2.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP (despite an ugly start against Cleveland last week). Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +182 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami over Atlanta at 2:08 pm et on Tuesday. I will gladly take the value being offered with the underdog Marlins on Tuesday afternoon. Miami has been undervalued all season. The Marlins certainly enter the NLDS with a real 'no one believes in us' vibe if there is such a thing. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami in Game 1. He was masterful in his Wild Card round start against the Cubs and has now worked at least six innings in six straight starts going back to the regular season. You would have to go back to August 30th to find the last time Alcantara gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta. He was on point in his Wild Card round start against the Reds but let's face it, Cincinnati just didn't bring its bats to that series. Note that prior to that start, Fried hadn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Marlins he worked just an inning and gave up three hits and two earned runs on September 23rd. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Oakland at 4:07 pm et on Monday. Neither of these teams hit the ball well during the Wild Card round and I'm anticipating some carry-over following an extended layoff heading into the ALDS. Lance McCullers Jr. has made a successful comeback this season and is a proven playoff performer having posted a career 2.53 ERA in the postseason. I like his chances of holding down an average A's offense here. Meanwhile, Oakland starter Chris Bassitt continues to exceed expectations after turning in a critically important strong outing for the A's against the White Sox last week. In a favored role here I'm confident Bassitt will turn in another sharp performance. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Diego at 7:08 pm et on Friday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series with a grand total of 31 runs scored and the amazing thing is, were it not for some absent clutch hitting from the Padres in Game 1, that total could be much higher. Here, I expect more of the same as we should see the two overworked bullpens log plenty of innings in this third and deciding game. The Padres seem to still be uncertain of who will start this game but Mike Clevinger's name has been tossed around as he looks to return from an elbow injury. Jack Flaherty will start for the Cardinals. He simply hasn't lived up to expectations following a stellar 2019 campaign. While Petco Park has always been known as a pitcher's park, the Padres have certainly turned that idea on its head here in 2020. Look for the scoring barrage to continue on Friday evening. Take the over (10*). |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 7:08 pm et on Thursday. The Padres fell short in the opener of this series yesterday - a game that marked their long-awaited return to the MLB postseason. Perhaps it should have been expected that they would experience some nerves and that certainly appeared to be the case early on as they fell behind by four runs before they even had a chance to bat. Over the game's final eight innings the Padres played the Cards even and I expect them to get over the hump and even up this series with a victory on Thursday. Zach Davies was terrific during the regular season, posting a career-high 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings while also issuing his lowest walks per nine innings since the 2016 campaign. His 1.07 WHIP was also a career-low, as was his 2.73 ERA. While we are talking about a relatively small sample size, those numbers are still worth noting. Cards starter Adam Wainwright held up pretty well as he winds down a long, storied big league career. With that being said, he posted his lowest strikeouts per nine innings in three years and also matched a career-high for home runs allowed per nine innings. It's been somewhat of a 'Cinderella' season for the Padres and I don't expect it to end today. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The opener of this series totaled 15 runs last night with the Yankees bats ambushing one of the best starters in baseball in Shane Bieber. Here, I look for a much lower-scoring affair as two veteran starters take the mound in a critical Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka was an All-Star for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 last year and actually improved on his numbers here in 2020. Tanaka posted more strikeouts per nine innings, fewer walks and fewer hits (all stats per nine innings). I look for him to keep an average Indians offense at bay on Wednesday night. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He recorded his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career during the regular season while also cutting his home runs allowed (per nine innings) virtually in half compared to last year. That's not to mention the fact he allowed his fewest hits per nine innings since the 2014 season. The Indians bullpen was solid down the stretch, recording a 3.59 ERA over the final two weeks of the regular season and while the Yankees 'pen wasn't nearly as good, I'm confident it can hold up against the Cleveland bats. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-20 | Reds +1.5 v. Braves | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:08 pm et on Wednesday. The Reds closed out the regular season on a red hot 11-3 run and I look for them to keep it going in the opener of their Wild Card series against the Braves in Atlanta. I'll grab the insurance run with Cincinnati here as the price warrants such a decision. Trevor Bauer will take the ball for the Reds. He has enjoyed a career year, even if we are talking about a relatively small sample size. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings were up and his walks were down compared to his previous best season in 2018 in which he was an All-Star and finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young voting and 22nd in A.L. MVP voting. No other starter gave up fewer hits per nine innings this season. Braves starter Max Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season but worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in his final seven starts. It's easy to forget that Fried went 17-6 last season. This year he struck out fewer batters per nine innings compared to last year while walking more. Note that he gave up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, by far a career low number. However, in his final outing he gave up a pair of home runs in just a single inning. Take Cincinnati +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -183 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 5 pm et on Tuesday. If the Jays are going to steal a game in this series it's going to be with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, not Matt Shoemaker. The Jays made the interesting choice to name Shoemaker their Game 1 starter. I suppose it doesn't really matter all that much in a three-game series but I would have thought they would want to put their best foot forward in the series-opener. Shoemaker enjoyed a fine bounce-back season but he'll have a tough time keeping the A.L.-leading Rays at bay in this one. Rays starter Blake Snell enjoyed another fine season, recording at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings for a third straight campaign while giving up fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to a year ago. I believe Tampa Bay should be laying an even steeper price here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -112 v. A's | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Oakland at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I think the betting marketplace has got it right installing the White Sox as a favorite here. This is likely the biggest pitching edge the Sox will have in this series as they send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Jesus Luzardo. In a short three-game series, they obviously need to make the most of it. Chicago beat up on left-handed starting pitching all season (14-0 vs. LH starters) and I look for more of the same against Luzardo here. Look for the Pale Hose to gain the upper hand in the opener. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-16-20 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers entered last night's action ranked 29th in baseball in runs per game and team batting average but I think they can get to Lance McCullers Jr. in this contest. McCullers has battled injury once again and has struggled most of the way with his strikeouts per nine innings way down compared to his career average. He's also allowing one home run per nine innings for the first time in his career (his previous career-high was 0.8). Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has been a mess. His strikeouts are way down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-20 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll play the 'over' as the A's and Rockies wrap up their series at Coors Field on Wednesday. Mike Fiers has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop while his walks have gone up compared to his 15-win campaign a year ago. Things obviously won't get any easier here in the thin air of Denver as the Rockies entered last night's action ranked T12th in the majors in runs per game and ninth in team batting average. Rockies starter German Marquez has struggled with command all season, with his walks per nine innings rising from 1.8 last year to 2.8 this year. His strikeouts per nine innings have dropped from 9.1 to 8.3. He's part of the reason why the Rockies rank T28th in runs allowed per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-20 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 3-18 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Miller Park on Tuesday night. Jack Flaherty takes the ball for the Cardinals. While his numbers are slightly off those he posted a year ago keep in mind we're dealing with a small sample size after he missed time due to injury in August. Also consider that he is also coming off a season in which he finished fourth in N.L. Cy Young voting and 13th in N.L. MVP voting. He led the N.L. in fewest hits allowed per nine innings last year and he's just slightly off that same pace this season (6.5 compared to 6.2). Brewers veteran starter Brett Anderson has held his own on the mound this season. He enjoyed a nice bounce-back season a year ago and has built on that success here in 2020. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He has given up more hits and home runs per nine frames compared to a year ago but here he should benefit from facing a Cards club that entered last night's action ranked T21st in hits per game and 28th in home runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Windy City on Monday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He was extremely consistent over the last three seasons but has struggled a bit here in 2020. Berrios' strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. He's handing out 4.2 free passes per nine innings compared to just 2.3 last season. Here, he'll face a White Sox lineup that's poised to take advantage of any and all mistakes as they rank 4th in the majors in runs per game and second in team batting average. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He has dropped both his ERA and WHIP compared to his rookie season a year ago but that's not saying much as he struggled mightily in 14 outings in 2019. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are still up around four per nine innings and he's still getting tagged for just shy of two home runs per nine frames. The Twins rank T17th in runs per game but sit in the top half of baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Baltimore at 7:35 pm et on Monday. This is a high total but it's up there for a reason. Touki Toussaint will take the ball for the Braves. He has struggled throughout his MLB career and for the most part has been pitching out of the bullpen this year. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up, his walks are sitting at a brutal 5.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up over two home runs per nine frames which doesn't bode well as he heads to Baltimore. While the O's have had a tough time lately and rank T17th in runs per game, they still sit in the top 10 in team batting average and slugging percentage. Look for them to get to Toussaint tonight. No teams scores more runs per game than the Braves and they should be able to tee off on O's starter Jorge Lopez. The Royals castoff has posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 24 innings of work this season which is pretty much par for the course. He's starting out of necessity here and I don't expect him to fare well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-20 | Angels v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks on Friday night at Coors Field. Griffin Canning takes the ball for the Angels. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably while his walks are up compared to last season and that's saying something as he isn't coming off a banner campaign. He's also allowing more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Rockies starter German Marquez has also struggled. Like Canning, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. While he has been able to tame Coors Field in the past, that simply hasn't been the case this year. With these two teams ranking top 12 in the majors in runs per game, look for a high-scoring affair on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. Everything lines up for a high-scoring affair between the Dodgers and D'Backs on Thursday night. Dustin May takes the ball for Los Angeles. While he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, his peripheral numbers aren't nearly as sharp. May's strikeouts per nine innings have dropped by over two since last season while his walks are up by nearly one. He's also giving up more than twice as many home runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Madison Bumgarner has endured a nightmarish season so far. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are way up. He's allowing a whopping 3.8 home runs per nine innings. Now he faces a Dodgers club that entered last night's play ranked second in the majors in runs per game. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Wednesday night. The Rockies will hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela who is enjoying a career year, albeit in a Covid-shortened season. In his three previous big league campaigns he has always issued at least three walks per nine innings but he has cut that number all the way to 1.3 this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly compared to a year ago while his hits and home runs allowed are down. Zach Davies will counter for San Diego. Like Senzatela, he has also improved on his numbers from a year ago. Most notably, Davies' strikeouts per nine innings have climbed from 5.7 last season to 7.8 here in 2020. While the Padres are more known for their offense this season, it's worth noting that they also rank T9 in team ERA. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-20 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in this same pitching matchup last week - a game that totaled 13 runs. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Adrian Houser once again takes the ball for the Brewers. While he didn't give up a home run for the first time in five starts, he still allowed nine hits and five earned runs over five innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down compared to last season while his walks are basically on par, which isn't saying much. He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings. Spencer Turnbull counters for Detroit. I noted in my analysis last week that he was due for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed as he had yet to give one up this season. Well he finally allowed a long ball in that most recent start and continues to struggle with his command, issuing a ridiculous six walks per nine innings. While the Brewers have struggled offensively this season look for them to once again take advantage of a Tigers pitching staff that has posted an ERA north of five this season, ranking 28th in the majors. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Rockies plus the insurance run on Friday night in Los Angeles. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for Colorado. He has quietly gotten off to a fine start this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his walks are way down, all the way to 1.5 per nine innings compared to 4.1 a year ago. His home runs and hits allowed have also dropped. Dodgers starter Dustin May has posted a solid ERA and WHIP but a deeper look shows that he has regressed slightly. His strikeouts per nine innings are down from 8.3 a year ago to 5.9 this season. His walks have jumped from 1.3 to 2.3. He's also allowing 1.0 home runs per nine innings compared to 0.5 last season. Entering last night's action the Rockies had crept into T10th in runs per game and T7th in team batting average. I look for them to hang around in this one. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -146 | 7-1 | Loss | -146 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Indians on Friday night as they host an Interleague matchup with the Brewers. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for Milwaukee. He was one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball last season but has settled down considerably this season, posting quite solid numbers. With that being said, his command hasn't been great as he has issued just shy of five walks per nine innings. He's giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, way down from last year's 3.1. That's the type of stat that tends to regress to the mean a little bit as the season goes on. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. His strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. Keep in mind, he battled command issues over a three-start stretch earlier but has settled down over his last couple of outings. He'll benefit from facing a Brewers club that ranks T26th in runs per game and 29th in team batting average. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This is an awfully tough matchup for the D'Backs as they run into a red hot Clayton Kershaw while sending a struggling Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver made his big league debut in 2016 but has pitched just one full season since, that coming in 2018 when he went 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up this season but so are his walks, hits and home runs allowed. The fact is, Weaver has struggled here in 2020 and there's little reason to expect him to turn things around against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is quietly off to a terrific start this season with a 1.80 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season while his walks are down. Keep in mind he was an All-Star once again last year and finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young voting so the fact that he has improved on his numbers says something. I'll lay the extra run to get a more reasonably price with the Dodgers here. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Giants v. Rockies -127 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be a little hesitant to back the Rockies in a favored role following last night's 23-5 beatdown at the hands of the Giants. I do look for Colorado to respond here with Kyle Freeland on the mound. Freeland continues his comeback tour following a disastrous 2019 campaign. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly but more importantly, his walks per nine innings have dropped considerably and he's giving up far fewer home runs. Logan Webb will counter for the Giants. He's made just 15 big league starts, eight last year and seven this year so we don't have a lot to go on. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly this season, his walks have ballooned from 3.2 to 3.8 and he's been somewhat lucky, giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. That could change here at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Wednesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers entered last night's action tied for first in the majors in runs per game but rather than back them at a steep price on Tuesday night, we'll instead play the 'over' as I'm confident the D'Backs will be able to pitch in with some offense as well. Alex Young will take the ball for the D'Backs. We've actually been fairly high on Young this season but he's shown signs of regression in recent starts. He has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing four home runs in just 13 1/3 innings over that stretch. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his hits allowed and his walks have started to creep up as well. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all up compared to last year. He has worked beyond the fourth inning just once in his last four starts. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | 16-2 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Reds as they aim to bounce-back from last night's 7-5 loss at the hands of the Cardinals. Cincinnati will turn to its ace, Sonny Gray. He's been outstanding so far this season, improving on what was an All-Star campaign a year ago. Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all down. St. Louis' seven-run outburst last night was not a common occurrence as they entered action ranked T26 in runs per game. Look for Gray to keep their bats at bay on Tuesday. Kwang Hyun Kim starts for St. Louis. He has been very effective in his last two starts but still isn't missing many bats, recording just 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.2 walks. We're talking about a very small sample size at the big league level with Kim. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Cardinals as they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds on Monday. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He quietly won 16 games for the Cardinals last season and finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He's also allowing two fewer hits per nine innings. Meanwhile, Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has struggled. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down from 9.0 a year ago to 5.7 this season. His walks per nine innings have crept up from 2.6 last season to 3.6 this year. Neither of these offenses have excelled so far this season but I believe we'll see the Cards enjoy a solid night at the dish on Monday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-28-20 | Pirates +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Pirates with an insurance run on Friday night in Milwaukee. Pirates starter Derek Holland is obviously on the down side of his career but it is worth noting that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down compared to last year. He is giving up a considerably higher home run rate but that should diminish with a larger sample size. Brewers starter Corbin Burnes is averaging over 12 strikeouts per nine innings but his walks have crept up to 5.5 per nine innings compared to 3.7 a year ago. Note that the Brewers rank a miserable 29th in the majors in runs per game and an identical 29th in team batting average. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-26-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -168 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price with the Cardinals on Wednesday night, but the price could be even higher in my opinion. Jakob Junis will make his return to the Royals rotation after dealing with a back injury. He wasn't good last season and he's been even worse here in 2020. While we are dealing with a small sample size (he's pitched just nine innings), Junis has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop considerably while his walks, hits and home runs allowed have all gone up compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson has posted an ERA north of six, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he's been burned by the long ball, allowing 2.7 home runs per nine innings. Note that he's never allowed more than 1.8 home runs per nine innings in a season previously, and that number was posted way back in 2012. Hudson's strikeouts per nine innings are way up over a year ago while he's also allowing few hits per nine innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Wednesday night as the A's and Rangers continue their series in Texas. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was a 15-game winner a year ago. With that being said, W-L records rarely tell the whole story when it comes to MLB starting pitchers. There's a reason he wasn't in the running for the A.L. Cy Young. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down to a career-low 4.1. His walks are on par with a year ago (2.6 per nine innings - not a favorable number). He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. The Rangers may soon have to face the fact that Kolby Allard isn't cut out to be a big league starter. He owns a career 6.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up so far this season, so are his walks, home runs and hits allowed. The A's are capable of teeing off on Allard on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +109 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Rockies starter German Marquez is pitching as poorly as he has at any point over the course of his big league career right now. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up considerably compared to last season. With that being said he has allowed a career-low 0.7 home runs per nine innings thus far. I do expect some regression in that department moving forward. Alex Young quietly put together a terrific rookie campaign for the D'Backs last season. Through nine appearances and two starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down. He allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings a year ago but that number has doubled here in 2020. I do look for Young to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, noting that while the Rockies are an excellent hitting team, they entered last night ranking T15th in the majors in home runs. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-25-20 | A's -156 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After a rough start to the season, A's starter Sean Manaea has turned things around in his last two outings, allowing just three earned runs while posting a 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings of work. His strikeouts per nine innings are down compared to last year but so are his walks. He's allowing north of 11 hits per nine innings but I expect him to improve on that average as the season goes on, noting he has never given up more than 9.5 runs per nine innings in a season over the course of his career. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas on Tuesday. His strikeouts are down considerably compared to the last two seasons while his walks are up slightly. All in all, what you see is what you get when it comes to Gibson. He's virtually a career .500 starter with an ERA well north of four and a 1.41 WHIP. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -175 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the chalk to back the Cardinals behind their ace Jack Flaherty on Monday night. Because Flaherty started the season injured, he hasn't been talked about much. Since returning he's made two starts, working 8 2/3 innings and giving up just three earned runs while posting a 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Remember, he was fourth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last year and an impressive 13th in MLB MVP award voting. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He has yet to allow an earned run in 17 2/3 innings of work this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his walks. He has yet to give up a home run and is allowing just 4.1 hits per nine innings but those stats aren't sustainable. By comparison, he gave up 8.4 hits per nine innings last season, recording a 4.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' as the Red Sox and Orioles wrap up their series at Camden Yards on Sunday afternoon. Zack Godley will take the ball for the Red Sox. He is pitching for his third team since the start of last season, and for good reason. Godley continues to struggle, having posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down slightly but he's still giving up far too many hits and home runs. In fact, Godley is giving up a career-high 2.5 home runs per nine innings this season. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Baltimore. His strikeouts per nine innings are up, as are his walks and he's giving up a whopping 10.8 hits per nine innings, matching last year's average. There's little reason to believe that LeBlanc will be able to keep the Red Sox bats at bay on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in D'Backs starter Zac Gallen's most recent outing but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as he faces the Giants on Saturday night. Gallen has been sharp to open the season and there's honestly not a lot bad I can say about him right now. But the fact is, he's facing a surging Giants offense that has climbed to 12th in the majors in runs per game and a tie for eighth in team batting average. They also rank 12th in home runs and Gallen has now allowed a home run in all five starts this season. Tyler Anderson continues to struggle for the Giants. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably from a year ago while his walks per nine innings sit at a disappointing 4.8 - the same number he posted last year. While his home runs allowed per nine innings are down that's only because he went from making most of his starts at Coors Field with the Rockies to a more pitcher-friendly park here in San Fran. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night as we have an underrated pitching matchup between Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy. It may come as a surprise that Odorizzi was a 15-game winner a year ago, earning a spot in the A.L. All-Star team. He's had a bit of tough luck so far this season, giving up far more home runs than usual but his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down compared to his career year in 2019. He handled the Royals in a seven-inning double-header game last week and should find some success again here. Duffy has been a middle of the road pitcher over the course of his career but has shown signs of breaking out so far this season. His strikeouts have climbed to a career-high 10.4 per nine innings while his walks are a respectable 2.6 per nine innings. He has also given up a career-best 5.9 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are coming off a wild double-header sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays yesterday, which included blowing a 7-0 lead in Game 2. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as we have an excellent pitching matchup between Aaron Nola and Max Fried. Nola is having a career-year (even though it's early). His strikeouts per nine innings are way up, hitting 12.6 while his walks are down to a career low 1.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up fewer home runs and just north of four hits per nine innings. After struggling with his command in his first two big league seasons, Max Fried has seemingly got it under control since last year. Through five starts this season he has posted an impressive 1.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly while his walks are up a shade, but he has yet to allow a home run in 29 innings and is giving up just 5.3 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -141 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. It's not easy to go against the A's these days but in this spot, I'm willing to take a flyer on the D'Backs with an insurance run. Alex Young will get the nod for Arizona. He has made eight appearances this season but only one start after 15 of his 17 appearances last year were starts. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down considerably. Last season, Young recorded a solid 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 12 hits per nine innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to his injury-shortened 2019 season. While the D'Backs aren't known as a prolific offensive club they did enter last night's action ranked tied for ninth in runs per game and tied for seventh in batting average (MLB ranks). Take Arizona +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' on Thursday as the Reds and Cardinals match up in what has the potential to be a pitcher's duel. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season, building off what was a terrific 2019 campaign. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star and finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting last season. So far this year, Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up significantly while his walks are down. He's also allowing a career-low hits per nine innings. While we're certainly dealing with a small sample size, Cards veteran starter Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start as well. His strikeouts are down to 6.5 per nine innings but he's done an excellent job of limiting good contact, having yet to give up a home run and a career-low 4.1 hits per nine innings. Note that the Reds entered last night's action sitting tied for 19th in runs per game and 25th in team batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll go the contrarian route once again and back the 'under' as the Astros and Rockies shift their series to Coors Field on Wednesday night. Framber Valdez will take the ball for Houston. He's off to a terrific start in his third big league season. Valdez has seen his strikeouts per nine innings go up while his walks per nine innings have dropped significantly. He's also giving up fewer hits and home runs. Meanwhile, Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani has pitched well in limited action so far this season, allowing just two hits and one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start, a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last week. While the Astros did enter yesterday's action ranking tied for eighth in baseball in runs per game, they were just 17th in batting average and 22nd in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +107 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't feel the Blue Jays have any business being favored in this game and can certainly see the line moving before first pitch on Wednesday afternoon Tanner Roark will take the ball for Toronto. Roark is pitching for his fourth different team since the start of 2018, which is telling. He hasn't pitched particularly well with any of those teams and is off to another tough start this season. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are way up (6.8 per nine innings). He allowed a career-high 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season and has matched that number so far this season. Tommy Milone will counter for Baltimore. He was on the wrong end of a 15-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start. However, he has actually been fairly effective this season, with his strikeouts per nine innings up and his walks down. He has also finally been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 0.5 home runs per nine innings - a career-low even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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08-18-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' as the A's and D'Backs do battle in a late afternoon affair on Tuesday. Frankie Montas will take the ball for Oakland. While he has posted a 1.57 ERA through four starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to the last two seasons. He's yet to give up a single home run but that's obviously not a sustainable trend. Luke Weaver will counter for Arizona. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 14 hits per nine innings, not to mention a ridiculous 4.6 home runs. While Weaver's strikeouts are up, so are his walks issued. Needless to say he's going to face a tough challenge in the hot hitting A's on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |