Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-13-22 | Pirates v. Marlins -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. This will be a popular play on Wednesday but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong one. The Pirates are suddenly hot, winners of four games in a row. They’ll be in tough on Wednesday though as they send JT Brubaker to the mound against Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. Brubaker’s 3.91 FIP isn’t awful but his 1.47 WHIP does leave a lot to be desired. Opponents have lit up the right-hander for 5.28 runs per nine innings this season. Lopez is having a fine campaign, having recorded a 3.60 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. He allows 2.2 fewer hits and 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Brubaker. Lopez has limited opponents to just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Note also that the Marlins should have the edge in the later innings, with their bullpen having posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season (entering last night’s action). The Pirates ‘pen has held up alright in this series, it did enter last night’s contest having posted a 7.17 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Miami (10*). |
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07-13-22 | Brewers v. Twins -122 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Minnesota over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the Twins on Wednesday as they send Joe Ryan to the hill against Aaron Ashby of the Brewers. Ryan has posted a fairly pedestrian 3.86 FIP but a terrific 1.09 WHIP while giving up just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven games. Aaron Ashby has had an up-and-down campaign for the Brewers. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and gives up 1.6 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings compared to Ryan. Opponents have reached Ashby for north of 5.0 runs per nine frames. Meanwhile, the Brewers bullpen has recorded a 4.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night’s game). Take Minnesota. Sean delivered the cash AGAIN in MLB action last night and he's back to extend his RED HOT 76-52 MLB run with another 10* TOP RATED big ticket release on Wednesday; grab a long-term picks pass today and don't miss a single winner from Murph! |
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07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | 0-13 | Win | 105 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Arizona at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll go back to the well fading D’Backs starter Dallas Keuchel on Tuesday in San Francisco. Keuchel was cut loose by the White Sox for good reason and checks into Tuesday’s start sporting a 5.19 FIP and 1.95 WHIP while allowing a ridiculous 8.75 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants figure to take advantage as they’re 16-10 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7). Logan Webb has endured a bit of an up-and-down campaign for the Giants but there have undoubtedly been more ups than downs as he checks in with a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 in Webb’s previous three career starts against the D’Backs, winning all three of those contests by at least two runs. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 6.62 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-12-22 | Tigers +115 v. Royals | 7-5 | Win | 115 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll gladly fade Royals starter Kris Bubic on Tuesday as the Tigers get their third look at the right-hander this season. Bubic checks in with an ugly 5.75 FIP and 1.87 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.4 runs per nine innings this season. It doesn’t get any better for the Royals in the later innings in this one either. Kansas City’s ‘pen owns a 6.39 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday’s action). The Tigers will hand the ball to rookie Beau Brieske. He’s struggled at times, as most rookie starters do, but in general has held up well for the Tigers, posting a 5.14 FIP but a 1.22 WHIP. He allows 3.12 fewer runs, 2.8 fewer hits and 3.0 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Bubic. The Tigers ‘pen entered this series sporting a terrific 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. They also entered the series having converted 11 saves while blowing only four on the road this season, recording a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP along the way. Take Detroit (9*). |
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07-12-22 | Dodgers -135 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. While both of Tuesday’s starting pitchers are unproven and neither boasts all that large of a body of work this season, I’ll give the considerable edge to Mitch White of the Dodgers. White doesn’t generally work deep into ball games but he has been effective when he’s been on the hill, recording a 3.73 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing 3.83 runs per nine innings. His counterpart, rookie Matthew Liberatore, has struggled for the most part, logging a 5.13 FIP and 1.74 WHIP while giving up 4.74 runs per nine innings. Liberatore checks in allowing 3.6 more hits, 1.7 more walks and 0.7 more home runs per nine innings compared to White. While the Cardinals bullpen has been lights out lately, the Dodgers have been more consistent in that department this season and for their part, have posted a collective 3.04 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-12-22 | Brewers v. Twins -130 | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota first five innings over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tough spot for the Brewers as they look to rebound off consecutive losses against the lowly Pirates on the weekend. Jason Alexander will get the start for Milwaukee. He continues to labor through his rookie campaign having posted a 4.66 FIP and 1.72 WHIP while allowing 5.75 runs per nine innings. Behind Alexander is a Brewers bullpen that has struggled lately, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games, however it has been terrific on the road this season, recording 23 saves while blowing only six while recording a 3.40 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, so we’ll look to avoid the potential late innings mismatch and play the first five innings only here (note that the Twins ‘pen has recorded just 11 saves while blowing eight at Target Field this season). Minnesota will give the start to Josh Winder. The rookie has impressed for the most part, logging a 4.09 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while limiting opponents to just under 3.6 runs per nine innings. Take Minnesota first five innings (8*). |
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07-12-22 | Mets v. Braves -148 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over New York at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. While last night’s series opener between these two teams featured a matchup of two aces, Tuesday’s starting pitching matchup is more of a mismatch as the Mets send David Peterson to the hill against Spencer Strider of the Braves. Peterson has had an up-and-down campaign to be sure. He checks in sporting a 4.01 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. Braves rookie Strider has been a breakout star, recording a ridiculous 1.82 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while yielding just shy of 2.9 runs per nine frames. With the two bullpens a virtual wash, I’ll give the edge to Strider, not to mention the Braves bats in this one. Note that Atlanta has gone 21-9 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in those contests. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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07-11-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. F5 Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair as two back-of-the-rotation starters take the ball in rookie Adrian Martinez of the A's and Spencer Howard of the Rangers. With that being said, we'll play the 'first five innings' only in this one as I do respect both bullpens, especially given their current form (A's 2.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP L7 games and Rangers 2.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP L7 games - both entering yesterday's action). Adrian Martinez has made three starts for the A's this season. He's been getting progressively worse it seems as his FIP has risen to 5.90 and his WHIP to 1.40. Perhaps most concerning is the fact that he's been tagged for 2.4 home runs per nine innings, despite not allowing a single long ball in his first big league start. The Mariners and Blue Jays have knocked him around for four home runs over his last two outings and I look for the Rangers to add to that total here. All told, Martinez checks in yielding 6.0 runs per nine innings. Although I do realize we're dealing with a small sample size of just 15 innings, Martinez previously recorded a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP at AAA Las Vegas this season, logging 64 innings. Spencer Howard has worked only 10 2/3 innings for the Rangers this year. With that being said, the numbers aren't good. He checks in with an 8.92 FIP and 1.88 WHIP. While we are likely to see some positive regression to the mean, keep in mind he logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings split between Philadelphia and Texas last season. For his career he's allowed just shy of 8.0 runs per nine innings in 101 innings of work. While the A's certainly aren't tearing the cover off the ball, they have proven to be a better offensive team on the road than at home this season, averaging 3.8 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 3.2 runs per contest). Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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07-11-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Mets send Max Scherzer to the hill for his second start since returning from injury. He was lights out in his first, tossing six innings of two-hit shutout ball while striking out 11 without issuing a single walk. That was against the Reds. He'll obviously be facing a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Scherzer checks in with a 2.62 FIP and 0.88 WHIP this season, allowing just 2.43 runs per nine innings. He might be facing the Braves at the right time. They mustered only four runs for the second straight game on Sunday, and needed 12 innings to get there, against the lowly Nationals no less. They've been held to four runs or less in four of their last five contests. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta on Monday. If you follow my plays regularly you know how high I am on the Braves ace. He's capable of matching Scherzer pitch-for-pitch having recorded a 2.50 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while yielding only 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets plated 10 runs in last Thursday's series-opener against the Marlins but proceeded to score a grand total of just seven runs over the next three games, going 1-2 along the way. Both bullpens are better than average in my opinion, with the Mets checking in with a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the road this season and the Braves sporting a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP at home (entering yesterday's action). Take the under (8*). |
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07-11-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Monday. This has been a very low-scoring series with just 10 runs scored through the first three games. I expect more of the same on Monday as we have a fine starting pitching matchup between Aaron Nola of the Phillies and Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals. Nola owns a 2.91 FIP and 0.93 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Nola is a Phillies bullpen that has been terrific lately, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. Miles Mikolas is having a terrific year for the Cards as well. He has posted a 3.65 FIP and 0.99 WHIP, giving up just over 3.0 runs per nine frames. The St. Louis bullpen owns a sparkling 0.76 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a trio of high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold in Sunday night's series finale. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Yankees. He checks in sporting a 3.40 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing only 3.63 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday night, Nick Pivetta, is coming off a rocky outing last time out but still sports a 3.64 FIP and 1.16 WHIP this season while yielding less than 3.7 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have performed well lately with the Yankees relief corps having posted a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games and the Red Sox 'pen checking in with a 2.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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07-10-22 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Sunday's board as the Marlins send Sandy Alcantara to the hill against Taijuan Walker of the Mets. Alcantara is having a Cy Young Award-caliber campaign, having posted a 2.85 FIP and 0.91 WHIP while yielding only 2.34 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday, Taijuan Walker, has impressed as well, posting a 3.09 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.0 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately, with the Marlins posting a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games and the Mets recording a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-10-22 | Rays -140 v. Reds | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. After blowing a 3-0 eighth inning lead in an eventual 5-4 extra innings loss yesterday - their second straight defeat in this series - I look for the Rays to salvage Sunday's series finale before heading back home. Shane Baz will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He's now pitched 38 innings in his big league career, recording a 3.44 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while allowing just 2.61 runs per nine innings. It's been a bit more of a struggle for Reds rookie Nick Lodolo. He's worked 19 1/3 innings this season, recording a 4.03 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.2 runs per nine frames. While the Rays don't hold a massive edge in the later innings with their bullpen struggling a bit lately, I do think they have enough of an advantage early to pay off for us on Sunday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-09-22 | Rays -147 v. Reds | 4-5 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. You would have to go back six starts to find the last time the Reds posted a win in a game that rookie Hunter Greene started and that came against the lowly D’Backs. I expect Greene to be in tough again on Saturday as he brings his 5.67 FIP and 1.35 WHIP into this outing. Even if Greene does find some success, the Reds bullpen behind him has been awful at home the season, recording a collective 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while converting just four saves and blowing four (entering last night’s action). Rays starter Drew Rasmussen makes his return from a hamstring injury. Not a lot is likely to be asked of him on Saturday and that’s fine as the Rays bullpen has posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. For his part, Rasmussen has recorded a 3.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. Last season, Rasmussen delivered a terrific 2.86 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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07-09-22 | Guardians -124 v. Royals | Top | 13-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. While Cleveland has been struggling lately I do expect it to find its way into the win column on Saturday as it sends Triston McKenzie to the hill against rookie Jon Heasley of the Royals. McKenzie is a bit of an enigma as he’s posted an inflated 4.58 FIP but an impressive 0.99 WHIP. I do like the fact that he allows more than a run less per nine innings compared to Heasley, not to mention 1.7 fewer hits and 2.3 fewer walks. Heasley has recorded a 5.30 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and has yielded just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. The Guardians will be getting their second look at him this season after delivering a 7-3 win back on May 30th. McKenzie has faced the Royals six times over the course of his career, posting a terrific 2.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with the Guardians winning four of those games. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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07-09-22 | Rays v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The opener of this series featured a terrific pitching matchup but Saturday’s contest will feature two back of the rotation starters in Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and rookie Hunter Greene of the Reds. Rasmussen checks in with a 3.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, yielding right around 3.9 runs per nine innings. In other words, he’s likely to give up some runs, even against the lowly Reds (to their credit they do average 5.0 runs per game at home this season). We’ve been picking on the rookie Greene for much of the season and for good reason as he’s generally been awful, recording a 5.67 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while giving up 6.13 runs per nine innings. Behind Greene is a Reds bullpen that owns a 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while blowing six saves and converting only four at home this season (entering last night’s action). Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-22 | Twins v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 7-9 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Devin Smeltzer has done nothing but impress for the Twins this season. While his 4.90 FIP leaves a lot to be desired, his 1.03 WHIP and 3.2 runs allowed per nine innings tell a different story. He's worked at least six innings and allowed a grand total of just four earned runs over his last three outings. Behind Smeltzer is a terrific Twins bullpen that has posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the Rangers 'pen has recorded a sparkling 2.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over that same stretch. Texas starter Martin Perez has 'turned back the clock' and is having a fantastic campaign. He checks in sporting a 2.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing less than 2.8 runs per nine innings this season. Take the under (9*). |
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07-09-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday afternoon. Rookie Garrett Hill will get his second start for the Tigers after tossing six impressive innings of one-run ball in his big league debut against the Guardians. Prior to the call-up, Hill had posted an ERA north of four but a respectable WHIP of 1.22 at the AAA level. He'll look to take advantage of a disappointing White Sox offense that has produced just 4.1 runs per game at home this season. Behind Hill is an underrated Tigers bullpen that owns a 2.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road this season. Johnny Cueto will counter for Chicago. He didn't have his best stuff last time out but still held the Twins to only two earned runs over six innings. He checks in allowing just 3.45 runs per nine innings this season and has been terrific in three previous daytime outings, recording a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The White Sox bullpen has been up-and-down but let's keep things in perspective here as the Tigers, while scoring seven runs last night, still average only 2.8 runs per game on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back 11 starts to find the last time Padres left-hander Blake Snell guided his team to a victory. You would also have to go back to September of 2020 to find the last time the Padres won consecutive games in a series against the division-rival Giants. I expect both streaks to remain intact on Friday. San Francisco 'opener' Sam Long has been somewhat of a good luck charm on the road. In his four career road starts, the Giants have gone a perfect 4-0. Long checks in with solid numbers this season, having recorded a 3.93 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing only 2.37 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Snell. He owns a 3.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding 5.58 runs per nine innings. Walks continue to be a big issue. He's handing out north of five free passes per nine innings. I expect the Giants to take advantage on Friday. While the San Francisco bullpen has struggled lately, the Padres 'pen hasn't been all that reliable either, posting an ERA north of 5.00 over the last seven games. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as the Tigers pulled out a narrow 2-1 victory. I'm expecting a much different story to unfold on Friday as Detroit sends Tarik Skubal to the mound against Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Skubal's overall numbers this season are solid. He's posted a 3.09 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. However, the wheels have come off recently as he's allowed 23 earned runs over his last five starts, spanning just 23 1/3 innings of work. The White Sox don't figure to be the team he turns it around against as he owns a career 6.95 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in five starts against them. He lasted just four innings, allowing four earned runs, in a 10-1 loss to Chicago the only previous time he faced it this season. His counterpart Lucas Giolito has pitched better of late, but still owns a disappointing 4.52 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings this season. Nothing seems to come easy for him against the Tigers, noting that you would have to go back eight starts to find the last time Giolito guided the White Sox to a win by 2+ runs in this series. While both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately, they're getting into 'overworked' territory having not had a day off since June 30th. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-22 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates were involved in a pair of low-scoring affairs against the Reds in yesterday's double-header in Cincinnati. I expect a different story to unfold as they open a divisional series in Milwaukee on Friday. J.T. Brubaker will get the call for the visiting Pirates. He checks in sporting a 3.92 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. An even bigger concern than Brubaker is the recent performance of the Buccos bullpen. Pittsburgh's relief corps has posted a collective 9.70 ERA and 2.08 WHIP over the last seven games and things won't get any easier following yesterday's double-header. Left-hander Aaron Ashby will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has recorded similarly pedestrian numbers to those of Brubaker with a 3.87 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 5.22 runs per nine innings. While not to the same degree of the Pirates' the Brewers 'pen has posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I really feel this is a game where the Braves can 'name their score' against a down-trodden Nationals pitching staff. With that being said, I don't have a lot of faith in Atlanta starter Charlie Morton, who has had an up-and-down campaign as a 38-year old. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings of one-hit ball but I question whether he can duplicate that performance as he makes his second consecutive start on just four days' rest (the only other time he did that this season he allowed four earned runs including two home runs in six innings at home against the light-hitting Pirates). Erick Fedde gets the start for Washington. He's having another very Erick Fedde-like season having posted a 4.33 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. Fedde averages only 5.0 innings per start and that's concerning as the Nats' bullpen has been extraordinarily bad on the road this season, recording a collective 6.22 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Speaking of bullpens, the Braves 'pen has posted a terrific 2.35 ERA over its last seven contests but a 1.48 WHIP over that stretch tells a different story. The Nats' bats were relatively quiet in a series in Philadelphia but they still perform considerably better on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Take the over (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Yankees -142 v. Red Sox | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This is a really difficult bounce-back spot for the suddenly reeling Red Sox as they face a pitching mismatch with the Yankees sending Nestor Cortes Jr. to the hill against rookie Connor Seabold. Cortes has been dominant at times this season, recording a 3.35 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding only 2.54 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Seabold, albeit with a small sample size of only two starts and 8 2/3 innings, as he's posted a 6.45 FIP and 2.08 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.31 runs per nine frames. The later innings should belong to the visitors in this one as well as the Yankees bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox 'pen has been effective lately as well but is reaching 'overworked' territory having logged 31 2/3 innings over the last seven games, without an off day since June 30th (the Yankees were off on Monday). Take New York (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Angels v. Orioles -137 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Orioles have reeled off five straight wins and I look for them to keep it going on Friday night against the fading Angels. We actually have a bit of a pitching mismatch on our hands here, even if Angels starter Reid Detmers is the one that has a no-hitter to his credit this season. He hasn't been able to regain that magic since, posting a 5.34 FIP on the season while allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Walks (3.3 per nine innings) and home runs (1.7 per nine innings) continue to be an issue for the left-hander. Note that the Orioles actually own a winning record against southpaw starters this season. Tyler Wells has been terrific over his last four starts, allowing just three earned runs in 22 innings of work. He checks in sporting a 4.08 FIP and 1.00 WHIP this season while allowing just 3.09 runs per nine innings. While the O's don't have a massive bullpen advantage, I do give them the slight edge in that department noting that they've posted a 2.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Rays -156 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Rays ace Shane McClanahan entered his start on June 3rd against the White Sox sporting a terrific 2.10 ERA. He's actually managed to lower that ERA in each and every start since (five starts to be exact), all the way to 1.74. Needless to say, I like his chances against the lowly Reds on Friday. His counterpart will be Luis Castillo. While he's having a fine season in his own right, he's coming off consecutive strong performances and now has to make a second straight start on just four days' rest. I just don't like his chances of stringing together a third consecutive lights out effort against a tough Rays lineup that got in a bit of a groove in Boston earlier this week. That's not to mention the Reds awful bullpen behind Castillo, which has recorded a collective 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This game will feature one of the best starting pitching matchups on Thursday’s board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Webb didn’t have his best stuff in his most recent outing against the White Sox but still hung in there for six innings, yielding three earned runs on six hits and just one walk. For the season, Webb has put up rock solid numbers with a 2.98 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing 3.5 runs per nine innings. Of course, Padres starter Joe Musgrove has firmly planted himself in the N.L. Cy Young Award conversation. He did allow three earned runs in his most recent start but that was over seven innings (while striking out 10) against a terrific Dodgers lineup. Musgrove checks in sporting a 3.10 FIP and 0.95 WHIP and has allowed only 2.64 runs per nine innings this season. We’ll play the first five innings only in this one simply due to the Giants bullpen being in terrible form having posted a 7.24 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I think the quiet nature of the Rockies bats over the course of a three-game series in Los Angeles may have lulled 'under' bettors into a false sense of security entering the opener of this four-game set in Arizona. We just saw this same starting pitching matchup between Austin Gomber and Dallas Keuchel last week and the rest was an 11-7 Rockies victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here. While the Rockies bats have been slumbering, this should be an ideal breakout spot noting they're actually a .500 team against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game (that's 0.9 rpg higher than their season average). Keuchel has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.75 FIP and 2.11 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work split between Chicago (White Sox) and Arizona. Opponents have torched the veteran left-hander to the tune of 9.58 runs per nine innings. Austin Gomber hasn't been much better for the Rockies, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens offer little support in this case as the Colorado 'pen has posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs relief corps owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers are flying high off a stunning four-game sweep of the Guardians. I do think they'll be hard-pressed to keep it going as a sizable underdog against the White Sox but rather than lay the big price with the White Sox here, we'll go with the 'under' in what I believe projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair. If Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears, Dylan Cease most certainly owns the Detroit Tigers. Cease has made 11 career starts against the Tigers with the White Sox winning 10 of those games and the right-hander posting a sparkling 1.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He brings excellent form into this outing having allowed only two earned runs over his last seven starts. For the season, Cease has posted a 2.73 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing just shy of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Detroit will counter with rookie Beau Brieske. He's had an up-and-down campaign to be sure. With that said, he was finally able to start on a full five days' rest last time out and it showed as he matched a season-high going six innings while allowing just three earned runs against the Royals. Prior to that, Brieske's last three outings had come on just four days' rest. Brieske's overall numbers this year aren't good but we have seen flashes of brilliance (he allowed one earned run in five innings against the Dodgers, two earned runs in six innings against the Yankees and no earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays). Behind Brieske is a Tigers bullpen that has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.30 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take the under (7*). |
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07-07-22 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -0.5 runs first five innings over St. Louis at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. This is without question a starting pitching mismatch between two rookies that have been going in completely opposite trajectories this season. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has pitched reasonably well in a pair of home starts but the road has been a completely different story. Overall, he checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.79 WHIP. He's giving up too many hits (11.3 per nine innings), home runs (1.7) and certainly walks (4.8) and not missing nearly enough bats to make up for it (7.8 K's per nine innings). All told, opponents have lit up Liberatore for 5.66 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider, meanwhile, has quietly put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers in his rookie campaign with the Braves, posting an elite 2.00 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding just under 3.2 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in messing with the bullpen matchup here (as good as Strider has been, he averages just 5.0 innings per start), as the Braves 'pen hasn't been as reliable as the Cards' relief corps, which checks in with a 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Take Atlanta -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are coming off a late offensive explosion in last night's 16-0 rout of the Pirates while the Red Sox just dropped consecutive games against the Rays. Here, I'll go the contrarian route and grab the insurance run with Boston as it opens this four-game series at Fenway Park. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for New York. He's been pitching well, which is to be expected. It's been a mixed bag for Cole recently in Boston, however, as he's made four starts here since the start of last season and has been tagged for a whopping seven home runs. The long ball has been an issue for Cole again this season as he has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings, including three in his last two starts. If you were to compare numbers between tonight's two starting pitchers you might be surprised that the Red Sox are such an underdog here. While Cole checks in with a 3.42 FIP and 1.01 WHIP and allows right around 3.0 runs per nine innings, Red Sox rookie starter Josh Winckowski has posted a 2.96 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 3.46 runs per nine innings. We're obviously talking about a smaller sample size when it comes to the rookie but I've been impressed by the way he's hung in there and given the Red Sox some quality outings. I mentioned Cole's issues with home runs, Winckowski has been the polar opposite, allowing just one big fly in 26 innings of work this season, despite four of his five starts coming at Fenway Park and Wrigley Field (two hitter-friendly parks). The Yankees bullpen is without question elite - perhaps the best in baseball - but the Red Sox relief corps has battled here at home this season as well, recording a collective 3.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering last night's action). Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals will inexplicably give Joan Adon another turn in the starting rotation on Thursday, his first outing since coincidentally facing the same Phillies back on June 17th. That start didn’t go all that well for Adon as he was tagged for four earned runs on seven hits over five innings. The right-hander enters Thursday’s start sporting an ugly 5.26 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.27 runs per nine innings this season. Phillies starter Bailey Falter hasn’t been much better, albeit with a smaller sample size. He has recorded a 5.99 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding 6.0 runs per game in 24 innings of work this season. Like Adon, Falter will be making his second start this season against Thursday’s opponent having allowed three earned runs on five hits including two home runs back in June. The presence of the Phillies red hot bullpen is the only thing that would give us some pause with this play, but I think that unit’s recent effectiveness is somewhat negated by the Nats’ awful relief corps which has posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We should see runs aplenty in Game 1 of Thursday's day-night double-header featuring the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ballpark. We won with the 'over' in the Buccos 16-0 rout at the hands of the Yankees last night while also successfully fading the Reds in their 8-3 extra innings loss against the Mets. Here, we'll focus on the total as we have two starting pitchers on downward trajectories and quite simply two of the worst bullpens in baseball ready to take the field. Roansy Contreras got off to a fine start for the Pirates this season but the bloom is suddenly off the rose as he's seen his FIP rise to 5.09 and his WHIP to 1.46 while allowing 4.7 runs per nine innings on the campaign. With the Reds getting their second look at the rookie right-hander this season there's little reason for optimism heading into this start. Mike Minor will get another turn in the Reds rotation. He actually held up well in his most recent start, allowing just two earned runs over six frames against Atlanta but Cincinnati still gave up nine runs in a blowout loss. Overall, Minor has been generally awful this season, recording a 7.34 FIP and 1.48 WHIP while yielding just north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. I mentioned the two bullpens - Pittsburgh's relief corps checks in sporting a 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games (and that's before last night's drubbing against the Yankees) while the Reds 'pen has posted an 8.44 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to giving up six runs in the 9th and 10th innings against the Mets last night). Take the over (9*). |
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07-06-22 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros offense has been on fire lately but let's keep in mind this is a team that averages just 4.5 runs per game at home this season. As they look to post a ninth consecutive victory on Wednesday, I believe some regression at the plate could be in order. Royals starter Brad Keller will be tasked with cooling Houston off. He's actually been better than I anticipated this season, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. While those numbers aren't impressive by any means, Keller has been at his best lately, recording a 2.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over his last three outings. The Royals bullpen behind Keller owns an ugly ERA north of 5.00 over the last seven games but that doesn't tell the whole story as they've also posted a collective 1.16 WHIP over that stretch. Houston will hand the ball to Cristian Javier, who is quietly putting together an A.L. Cy Young-contending campaign. Javier has posted a sparkling 2.57 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while allowing just 2.58 runs per nine innings. Should the Houston bullpen be called upon here, we'll note that they've recorded a 0.88 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a well-pitched game from both sides on Wednesday as the Cardinals send Miles Mikolas to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Mikolas is having another fine season, recording a 3.49 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing just under 3.0 runs per nine innings. Perhaps even more impressive is the bullpen behind him - particularly of late - as the Cards relief corps' has posted a collective 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. While Mikolas has pitched well, Braves ace Max Fried has been even better. He checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while giving up only 2.75 runs per nine innings. The Braves bullpen hasn't been lights out lately but might not be asked to do too much here given the fact that Fried averages 6 1/3 innings per start this season. Take the under (9*). |
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07-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. How many more opportunities will we get to fade Nationals starter Josiah Gray? The Nats' were a home favorite in his most recent start against the Marlins and he missed the mark again, yielding six earned runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings. Gray had admittedly been pitching well over a five-start stretch previously but that success wasn't sustainable. He checks in sporting a 4.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing north of 4.3 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Gray is an awful Nats' bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games and that's actually an improvement over their season numbers on the road (6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola. He's often the forgotten arm in a solid Phillies starting rotation but he continues to pitch effectively. Nola owns a 2.94 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.21 runs per nine innings. The Philadelphia bullpen remains in terrific form, having posted a sparkling 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Yankees v. Pirates OVER 9 | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Yankees last three games and also in consecutive games involving the Pirates. I look for a reversal of that trend on Wednesday as New York sends Luis Severino to the mound against Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Severino hasn't pitched poorly by any means but he hasn't been lights out either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 3.65 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings. Both his home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are up in comparison to his career averages, keeping in mind this would be his first full season since 2018. Mitch Keller has been as advertised for the Buccos this season, recording a 4.04 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while giving up just under 5.3 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates bullpen owns an ugly 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games, leaving the door open for late runs in this one. Rather than lay the -1.5 runs at an inflated price with the Yankees, we'll go the totals route here. Take the over (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Cincinnati a 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Mets last night as they couldn't muster any offense in Max Scherzer's return to the rotation, losing that game by a 1-0 score in walk-off fashion. They'll bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a rejuvenated David Peterson. The fact that New York is sending a left-handed starter to the hill is notable as the Reds have gone a woeful 7-16 against southpaws this season, including six consecutive losses heading into this one. Peterson has righted the ship after a rocky start to his campaign, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.20 thanks to consecutive strong outings. While Peterson has yielded an ugly 3.4 walks per nine innings this season he hasn't handed out a single free pass over his last two starts. Graham Ashcraft will counter for Cincinnati. The books seems to be out on the rookie right-hander as he has struggled mightily over his last several outings (save for a solid performance against the reeling Giants). He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.24 WHIP on the season, allowing north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. While the Reds bullpen held up well last night, that doesn't change the fact that they've recorded an awful 8.44 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over their last seven games. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the same stretch. Take New York (10*). |
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07-06-22 | Angels -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Marlins last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Angels, on the run-line, on Wednesday. Los Angeles is struggling right now having lost four games in a row. After getting blown out in the first two of those four losses they've been close in the last two, dropping two and one-run decisions. Here, I expect them to finally get over the hump with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 2.68 runs per nine innings. He's been lights out over his last few starts in particular, not allowing a single earned run over those three outings. It's been a much different story for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He has posted a 4.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.0 runs per nine frames this season. While the Marlins do have the advantage in the later innings given their bullpen's recent form, I'm not convinced that's enough to make the difference here. Noting that all but one of the Angels 16 road wins this season have come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Halos on Wednesday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-06-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The two bullpens stepped in and saved the day for 'under' bettors in this matchup last night. The A's have now seen the 'under' go 4-0-1 over their last five games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Jose Berrios will get the start for the struggling Blue Jays. He's not having a good season - not by any stretch of the imagination. Berrios owns a 5.17 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and has been tagged for north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Wednesday, A's starter James Kaprielian, has arguably been even worse. He checks in sporting a 5.75 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. While the two bullpens bring solid recent form into this contest, I'm not anticipating them delivering another clean sheet on Wednesday afternoon. Take the over (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're talking about a smaller sample size innings-wise, there's really no comparison between Dodgers starter Mitch White and German Marquez of the Rockies. White has posted a 3.84 FIP and 1.19 WHIP this season and has had a bit of hard luck in allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. He's allowing 2.5 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 0.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to the veteran Marquez this season. Marquez sports a 4.98 FIP and 1.54 WHIP and yields north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. The bullpen comparison is no contest either as the Rockies relief corps has posted a collective 5.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road while the Dodgers 'pen owns a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Blue Jays -180 v. A's | 3-5 | Loss | -180 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer with Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays on Tuesday, betting that Kikuchi's turnaround in his most recent start wasn't a fluke and perhaps the beginning of a positive stretch for the left-hander. Kikuchi allowed just one earned run over six innings in that victory over the Rays last time out. He should be happy to face a former divisional rival that he's had some success against in the A's on Tuesday, noting that Oakland checks in a woeful 9-18 while averaging just 3.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. A's spot starter Adrian Martinez had a nice outing against the light-hitting Tigers earlier in the campaign but his second start didn't go nearly as well as the Mariners reached him for seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings last time out. After getting baffled by left-hander Cole Irvin last night, look for the Blue Jays bats to wake up against the righty Martinez here. While the A's bullpen has been terrific lately, it still sports an ugly 5.12 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with four saves converted and six blown at home this season. The Jays 'pen has recorded a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. Take Toronto (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two N.L. Central rivals yesterday as the Brewers walked it off in a 5-2 extra innings victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the hitters should have plenty of success in this one. Cubs veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks has had an up-and-down season, perhaps with more downs than ups. He owns a 4.75 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Jason Alexander. He's arguably been slightly worse than Hendricks, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up 4.7 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens have been serviceable lately but are showing some signs of wear with neither team enjoying an off day since June 27th. The two 'pens have worked 32 and 28 2/3 innings, respectively, over the last seven games with the Cubs relief corps having posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over that stretch and the Brewers checking in with a 3.45 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Mets -190 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The fact that we're able to back the Mets at better than a -200 price point (at the time of writing) represents value in my opinion as they welcome Mad Max Scherzer back to the hill against the lowly Reds. We won with New York last night and I see no reason not to go right back to the well here. Scherzer, prior to getting hurt, had posted a terrific 2.95 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.72 runs per nine innings. There's little reason for the Mets to rush their ace back so I'm confident he's good to go here. Of course, behind Scherzer is a solid Mets bullpen that has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. That's in stark contrast to the Reds 'pen, which owns a ridiculous 9.94 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over the same stretch and has blown five saves while converting only four at home this season. Rookie Nick Lodolo will counter Scherzer on Tuesday. He's only seen limited action so far but has not surprisingly struggled, posting a 4.61 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine frames. Take New York (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly the Cardinals best opportunity to steal a win in this series as from here the starting pitching matchups only get tougher with the Braves sending Max Fried and impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill the next two days. On Tuesday, St. Louis will hand the ball to Andre Pallante. He's been quietly effective at the back-end of its rotation, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing only 2.1 runs per nine innings this season. I like the fact that he's shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. Behind Pallante is a Cardinals bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 2.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Ian Anderson will get the start for Atlanta. He's battled command issues all season, recording a 4.58 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three Anderson starts to find the last time the Braves won a game with the right-hander on the mound. Atlanta's relief corps entered last night's contest with a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention three blown saves (to go along with three converted) over its previous seven contests. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Angels v. Marlins -135 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins enter this short two-game set against the Angels on a roll, having reeled off five straight victories - a streak that started with a come-from-behind win in St. Louis in which tonight's starter, Sandy Alcantara, tossed a complete game. The Angels have lost three consecutive games and will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard on Tuesday. He's certainly pitched well but I believe the Halos have stretched him a little thin, leaving him in for 7+ innings in each of his last two outings. Syndergaard owns a 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season while allowing 4.13 runs per nine innings. While those are solid numbers, they don't match up with Alcantara. The Marlins ace has recorded Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, with a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while giving up only 2.5 runs per nine innings. It's a similar story as far as the two bullpens go as the Marlins are in better form, having posted a collective 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with four saves converted and one blown over their last seven games. The Angels 'pen has been overworked, called upon to log 30 innings over the last seven contests while recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take Miami (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Mariners v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup as the Mariners and Padres wrap up their brief two-game interleague series on Tuesday afternoon in San Diego. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's been terrific in his second big league season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 2.95 runs per nine innings. While the Mariners bullpen did cough up a couple of meaningless runs in the ninth inning yesterday, that unit has performed exceptionally well lately, recording a collective 2.21 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over the last seven games (prior to yesterday's contest). Padres starter Mike Clevinger is back in the bigs after missing the entire 2021 campaign due to injury and he seemingly hasn't missed a beat. He checks in with a 3.35 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, giving up just 3.1 runs per nine innings this season. That's all the more impressive when you consider he stumbled in his first two outings. Over his last four starts, Clevinger has allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings of work. While the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, its long-term track record gives me confidence, particularly here at home. Entering yesterday's game, the Pads' relief corps had recorded a collective 3.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams are coming off very different results on Sunday as the Twins failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles, falling by a 3-1 score at home, while the White Sox wrapped up an impressive sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, delivering a 13-4 victory. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as these two A.L. Central rivals square off in Chicago. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's had an up-and-down season to be sure but does bring solid form into this start having allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. Bundy checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the season but what I like about him is the fact that he doesn't walk a ton of batters, yielding just 1.8 walks per nine innings. White Sox starter Johnny Cueto is having a fine season, recording a 4.15 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just 3.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has posted the second best FIP in baseball over the last week, checking in with a 2.22 mark. For their part, Twins relievers have recorded a terrific 3.18 FIP over the same stretch, 11th best in the majors for that time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Mets have a significant advantage in a number of different departments in this game with starting pitching at the forefront. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. He's been in excellent form, checking in with a 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts. Of course that's nothing new as Walker owns a 3.09 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing just 2.85 runs per nine innings on the season. His counterpart on Monday will be Hunter Greene. His rookie season hasn't gone swimmingly as he's recorded a 5.53 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, yielding north of 5.8 runs per nine frames. The Reds bullpen behind Greene doesn't instill much confidence as that group entered yesterday's action having posted a 10.08 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. At home this season, Cincinnati has recorded only four saves while blowing four as well. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen entered yesterday's play sporting a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games, recording three saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take New York (9*). |
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07-04-22 | Giants -175 v. Diamondbacks | 3-8 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Giants yesterday as they dropped their third straight game against the White Sox, in blowout fashion no less. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Monday as they hit the road to face the division rival D'Backs in Arizona. San Francisco has a considerable starting pitching advantage in this one with Carlos Rodon going against Madison Bumgarner of the D'Backs. Rodon has been terrific this season - Cy Young-caliber even - recording a 2.29 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while allowing only 2.72 runs per nine innings. Bumgarner, meanwhile, owns a 4.70 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has been tagged for north of 4.4 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup isn't any better for the Snakes. Their relief corps' entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants 'pen had posted a 1.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the same stretch. Take San Francisco (9*). |
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07-04-22 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 1:35 pm et on Monday. Most are expecting plenty of offensive fireworks on the Fourth of July at Fenway Park but I look for a different story to unfold as these two A.L. East rivals do battle. We have a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup here with the Rays sending Jalen Beeks to the hill against Michael Wacha of the Red Sox. Beeks has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work this season, yielding only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Former Ray Michael Wacha has been more than serviceable for the Red Sox, recording a 3.97 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, giving up 2.94 runs per nine frames. The Rays just finished beating up on the Blue Jays pitching staff but I don't expect them to do the same against Boston. Given the total we're being offered in the first five innings, I don't feel we need to mess with the bullpens in this contest. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-04-22 | Rangers v. Orioles -103 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore first five innings over Texas at 1:05 pm et on Monday. Orioles starter Dean Kremer has done nothing but impress since laboring through his first start against the Guardians this season, allowing just one earned run over his last four outings, spanning 23 2/3 innings of work. Kremer checks in with an impressive 3.08 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 28 innings this season, allowing only 1.61 runs per nine innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas on Monday. He's had a number of quality outings spoiled by a lack of run support and while that could very well turn out to be the issue again here, we'll note that Dunning's overall numbers aren't great. He has recorded a 4.03 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, giving up just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in the bullpen matchup here as the O's relief corps has seemingly hit a wall lately while the Rangers 'pen has thrived. Instead we'll back the O's in the first five innings as they look to build on the momentum gained from yesterday's victory in Minnesota. Take Baltimore first five innings (8*). |
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07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. St. Louis saw its three-game 'under' streak come to an end in a wild 7-6 victory over Philadelphia yesterday. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Adam Wainwright will take the ball for the Cardinals. He's having a 'turn back the clock' type of season, posting a 3.37 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, yielding less than 3.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be Zack Wheeler. He's labored through his last couple of outings but his overall numbers are still terrific as he's recorded a 2.53 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 3.33 runs per nine innings. While the Cardinals bullpen has inexplicably blown four saves over the last week it has still posted solid numbers, a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last seven contests. The Phillies 'pen checks in sporting a 0.99 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-03-22 | White Sox v. Giants -105 | 13-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito continues to labor through what has been a trying campaign so far as he checks into Sunday's start sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. With the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup given recent form, I'm comfortable fading Giolito at nearly a pk'em price. John Brebbia is expected to get the start for the Giants, likely in an 'opener' role. Brebbia has pitched well this season, recording a 2.04 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work. In fact, he's quietly been effective over the course of his big league career, with a 3.29 FIP and 1.16 WHIP across five seasons, working 226 2/3 innings. Take San Francisco (9*). |
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07-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have not surprisingly been high-scoring but we have the best starting pitching matchup of the series on Sunday as the D'Backs send Zac Gallen to the hill against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. I look for this one to get off to a much lower-scoring start at least. Gallen owns a 3.75 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.67 runs per nine innings. He's coming off a poor performance in his most recent start but that was in a tough situation as he was facing the Padres for a second straight outing (in the span of less than a week). He's held the Rockies to two earned runs or less in seven of his eight career starts against them, including no runs over seven innings in his lone previous start against them this season. Chad Kuhl is quietly enjoying a terrific campaign in his first year with the Rockies. He's thrived at hitter-friendly Coors Field, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts. Kuhl checks in with a 3.95 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, yielding 3.72 runs per nine innings. In his most recent start he tossed a complete game shutout against the Dodgers (we won with the 'under' in that game). Rather than deal with two subpar bullpens in this matchup, we'll stick with the first five innings 'under' only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-02-22 | Red Sox -140 v. Cubs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cubs got the better of the Red Sox yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Josh Winckowski will take the ball for Boston on Saturday. While he’s only worked 20 innings at the big league level, he has impressed, posting a 3.38 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. He’s giving up only 3.6 runs per nine innings. Alec Mills will counter for the Cubs on Saturday. He has recorded 8.27 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging more than 10 runs per nine innings off of him this season (small sample size, I know). Look for Boston to get back at Chicago here. Take Boston (10*). |
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07-02-22 | Braves -167 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Braves on the run-line last night and I like them again in this one as they send rookie Spencer Strider to the hill against Tyler Mahle of the Reds. Strider continues to impress in his rookie campaign, posting a 2.20 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while yielding only 3.35 runs per nine innings. Mahle has labored through the season, recording a 3.38 FIP and 1.27 WHIP, giving up north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The real issue for the Reds is their bullpen, which has struggled mightily, posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). The Braves ‘pen has recorded a collective 2.48 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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07-02-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the advantage the Angels have with Saturday’s starting pitching matchup as they send Patrick Sandoval to the hill against Jose Urquidy. Sandoval has been quietly impressive, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Urquidy has disappointed, posting a 4.83 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while yielding 4.6 runs per nine frames. Note that the Los Angeles bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). The Astros ‘pen is in poor form right now, recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Interleague First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep at home against the Astros but I look for them to rebound on Friday, at least early on, against the Rangers. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. He's had command issues this season and checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of 5.5 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Mets starter Chris Bassitt should be happy to face the Rangers - an old A.L. West division rival from his days with the Oakland A's. Bassitt owns a 3.93 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's pitched well lately, allowing only six earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Rangers relief corps has admittedly been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over its last seven games. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. We went against the Braves last night and were rewarded with a 14-4 Phillies victory in the finale of that divisional series. Here, Atlanta will travel to Cincinnati to face the lowly Reds and I look for them to get their frustrations out. Max Fried continues to rate as one of the best pitchers in baseball, checking in with a 2.58 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.86 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be journeyman Mike Minor. He's having a miserable campaign, recording a 7.96 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of around 25 innings. Opponents have reached Minor for north of 7.7 runs per nine innings. The Braves should have the advantage in the later innings as well as Cincinnati's bullpen has been downright awful lately, posting a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. The Reds have converted only four saves while blowing four at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-30-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres snapped their three-game skid yesterday in Arizona and I look for them to at the very least take the Dodgers down to the wire on Thursday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's coming off a rocky outing against the Phillies but that doesn't change the fact that he's firmly planted himself in the N.L. Cy Young award conversation this season, posting a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. Despite the Padres recent struggles as a whole, their bullpen has held up well, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Mitch White will counter for Los Angeles. He's certainly been serviceable at the back-end of the Dodgers rotation this season but his numbers don't compare to Musgrove's. White owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.15 WHIP and gives up north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. I'm most concerned with his home run and walk totals as he's been tagged for 1.2 home runs and 3.0 walks per nine innings. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been terrific although it's worth noting that it has blown five saves (while converting 11) at home this season. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-30-22 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Thursday. The Braves have gotten the better of the Phillies so far in this series. While I did expect Philadelphia to earn a victory in the opener of the series (and they probably should have were it not for a ton of missed scoring opportunities), I felt the Braves were deserving favorites last night with an underrated Kyle Wright on the mound against Ranger Suarez. Here, I believe the Phillies are rightful favorites as they send an underrated arm of their own to the mound in Aaron Nola. Nola has posted a sparkling 2.82 FIP and 0.90 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 3.1 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Ian Anderson, who owns a 4.45 FIP and 1.45 WHIP, yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's action, the Braves bullpen had posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps had recorded a 2.57 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-29-22 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. This might be the best starting pitching matchup on the entire MLB board on Wednesday as the White Sox send Michael Kopech to the hill against Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Kopech hasn’t had his best stuff over his last two starts, allowing seven earned runs in 11 innings in consecutive losses against the Astros and Orioles. His overall numbers remain solid, however, as Kopech has posted a 3.62 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing less than 2.9 runs per nine innings. Ohtani has been even better for the Angels, quietly putting together another fine campaign having recorded a 2.76 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding an identical 2.9 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bullpen has been a little uneven lately, it might not be asked to do much here as Ohtani averages over six innings per start at home this season, lasting at least six fames in seven of his last eight outings. Chicago’s ‘pen has been better on the road than at home this season, posting a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Take the under (8*). |
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06-29-22 | Dodgers -184 v. Rockies | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. As is often the case, the Rockies appear to be outmatched in terms of the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Julio Urias will get the start for the visiting Dodgers. While he hasn’t necessarily been his dominant self, he has still held up reasonably well for Los Angeles this season, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while limiting the damage to just 3.3 runs per nine innings. Those numbers are vastly superior to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, German Marquez. The Rockies veteran right-hander has recorded a 4.85 FIP and 1.50 WHIP, giving up more than 10 hits and three walks per nine innings, leading to a whopping 6.25 runs allowed per nine frames. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers here as well as their bullpen entered last night’s game sporting a 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Rockies ‘pen had posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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06-29-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. This N.L. Central showdown has all the makings of a slugfest at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Rookie Hunter Greene will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds, despite his recent struggles. Keep in mind, this will be his second start against the Cubs this season after allowing five earned runs on seven hits, including three home runs, in just five innings of work back in late May (the Reds won that game 20-5). Greene owns an ugly 5.70 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding 2.6 home runs per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Behind Green is a Reds bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 7.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. He’s had an up-and-down season but there have been more downs than ups recently as he has lasted a full six innings just twice in his last seven outings. For the season, Steele has recorded a 3.59 FIP and 1.45 WHIP with his hits (9.0) and walks (4.0) allowed per nine innings certainly a concern. Opponents have reached Steele for an average of 5.29 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up reasonably well lately but has been anything but lights out at Wrigley Field this season, posting a collective 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only four saves converted and six blown (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). |
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06-29-22 | Marlins -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami first five innings over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. I’ll back the Marlins in the first five innings only on Wednesday as they send Sandy Alcantara to the mound against Andre Pallante of the Cardinals. Alcantara wasn’t at his best in his most recent start but still battled his way through seven innings against the Mets, ultimately foiled by a pair of home runs in the 5-3 setback. Keep in mind, he had given up just one home run in his previous nine outings so it’s not as if we’re seeing an emerging trend in that regard. Alcantara enters Wednesday’s start sporting a fantastic 3.03 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.45 runs per nine innings in over 100 innings of work. Pallante started on four days’ rest for the first time in his young career last time out and pitched reasonably well in a 3-0 home loss to the Cubs (he lasted six innings). I question how he’ll hold up making a second consecutive start on short rest here, however. Pallante has recorded a pedestrian 4.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP yet has somehow given up only 2.03 runs per nine innings. As good as the Cards defense is, I don’t believe that’s sustainable. We’ll aim to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Cards have been in much better recent form in that regard and the Marlins have blown eight saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take Miami first five innings (10*). |
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06-29-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup lined up on Tuesday in Toronto. Canadian Nick Pivetta will start in his home country for the Red Sox and he’ll do so in fine form, having posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season. He has allowed only 3.25 runs per nine innings. Pivetta has struggled in two previous outings against the Blue Jays this season but those came back in April when he was struggling. He’s pitched far better since and I look for him to minimize the damage against a tough Blue Jays lineup on Wednesday. Alek Monoah will counter for Toronto. He’s having a tremendous sophomore campaign, recording a 3.04 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up only 2.36 runs per nine innings. The Jays struggling bullpen is certainly a concern but Manoah has shown the ability to consistently work deep into ball games, particularly here at home where he averages just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start, having made seven starts at Rogers Centre this season. Take the under (9*). |
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06-29-22 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox let Orioles spot starter Austin Voth off the hook in some sense in his most recent outing. I don’t expect the Mariners to be as forgiving on Wednesday afternoon. Voth has worked 27 2/3 innings this season but I’ve seen enough to come to the conclusion that he’s not long for the O’s rotation. Voth has posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.92 WHIP, giving up north of 8.1 runs per nine innings in limited duty this season. Chris Flexen will counter for the Mariners. He has recorded a 4.64 FIP and 1.42 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.3 runs per nine innings. Flexen continues to walk over 3.0 hitters per nine innings, while also yielding just under 10.0 hits. I expect the O’s to have plenty of scoring opportunities on Wednesday afternoon and I’m confident they can take advantage given how scrappy and productive they’ve been in recent weeks. We actually won with the ‘under’ in last night’s game - a 2-0 Mariners victory that didn’t see a run until the eighth inning - but I expect a much different story to unfold, at least early on, in Wednesday’s series finale. I have too much respect for two of the hottest bullpens in baseball right now so I’ll play the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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06-29-22 | Pirates v. Nationals -124 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates and Nationals will conclude their three-game series with a matinee affair in Washington on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Mitch Keller. He has never really been able to find his way at the big league level and is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing north of 4.9 runs per nine innings. To put it simply, he’s allowing far too many hits and walks, 9.1 and 3.7 per nine innings, respectively. Of course the Pirates bullpen isn’t likely to do much behind Keller here, noting it entered last night’s game sporting an ugly 6.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last seven games (prior to last night's game). Paolo Espino will get the nod for the Nationals. We won with Washington in Espino’s most recent start as he once again pitched effectively in an eventual 2-1 win over the Rangers last Friday. Espino has lowered his FIP to 3.60 and WHIP to 1.11 and is giving up only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. We’re not talking about all that small of a sample size either as Espino has worked over 40 innings. The Nationals bullpen has been serviceable lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over its last seven contests (entering last night's game), converting four saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘under’ in Orioles starter Dean Kremer’s most recent outing as he helped his team to a 4-0 victory over the White Sox in Chicago. Here, we’ll grab the insurance run with Kremer and the O’s as they look to get the better of Robbie Ray and the Mariners. Kremer owns an impressive 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, spanning 21 innings of work this season (small sample size, I know). Kremer should be pleased to be making a start in Seattle after he turned in one of his best outings of the season here last season, allowing just one earned run over six innings of two-hit ball in a 5-3 victory. Of course, it’s rarely a bad idea grabbing an insurance run with the O’s as they almost always have the advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered this series sporting a 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Baltimore’s relief corps has posted a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only one blown on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Robbie Ray has been good but certainly not great in his first season with the Mariners. He checks in with a 4.18 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, allowing just under 4.2 runs per nine innings. The M’s have won just two of Ray’s last 12 starts by 2+ runs. While the Seattle bullpen entered this series with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home the season it has converted only three saves while blowing four (again, entering last night’s action) here in the Pacific Northwest. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-28-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as the Orioles bats came alive against Mariners rookie starter George Kirby in a 9-2 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday, however, as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound against reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray for Seattle. Kremer has shown considerable improvement this season, even if we are talking about just 21 innings of work. He checks in sporting a 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing only 2.14 runs per nine innings. At the minor league level, Kremer has worked nine shutout innings of two-hit ball this season, recording an impressive 18:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of course the real star of the show for the Orioles has been their bullpen, which has posted a collective 1.23 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Robbie Ray will be looking to help his team snap out of a mini two-game skid. He owns an inflated 4.19 FIP but a more respectable 1.18 WHIP on the campaign. Over his last three outings he has posted a sparkling 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with two of those three contests totalling three runs or less. The Mariners bullpen has had a tough time nailing down saves at home this season with four blown compared to only three converted but does check in with a 0.81 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Tigers v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last time out but I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday’s series-opener in San Francisco. Tarik Skubal will get the start for Detroit. He’s been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal season for the Tigers. Skubal checks in with a 2.67 FIP and a 1.13 WHIP. While the fact that he’s allowed just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings is a bit of a concern, he should benefit from facing a Giants club that has scored three runs or less in seven of its last 11 contests. Behind Skubal is a sneaky-good Tigers bullpen that has posted a terrific 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road this season. Carlos Rodon barely broke a sweat in tossing seven innings of one-run ball against a tough Braves lineup last time out. He has posted a masterful 2.34 FIP and 1.09 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.81 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen has been somewhat disappointing this season but has shown signs of improvement lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over its last seven games. Facing a Tigers club that averages only 2.7 runs per game on the road this season should be music to the Giants relief corps’ ears. As should working behind Rodon as he has gone at least six innings in three consecutive starts. Take the under (8*). |
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06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Angels in the first five innings in last night's eventual 4-3 win in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the White Sox on Tuesday, however. Johnny Cueto has 'turned back the clock' for Chicago so far this season, posting a 3.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing less than 3.4 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen continues to hold up well on the road this season, recording a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Rookie Chase Silseth will counter for Los Angeles. Things haven't gone swimmingly in his first four big league starts as he has posted a 6.44 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. The Angels bullpen has been better this year than it was last season but that's not saying much. Note that the L.A. relief corps has only managed to convert 12 saves compared to eight blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I can’t help but feel Clayton Kershaw has become an undervalued commodity at this stage of his storied career (you might not know it by the moneyline in this game but I believe it could be even higher). We successfully backed Kershaw in his most recent start against the Reds and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as he takes the ball at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday. Kershaw settled in nicely in his second start since returning from the I.L., holding Cincinnati to one earned run over six innings, and brings a 2.44 FIP and 0.91 WHIP into this contest. Opponents have reached Kershaw for just 2.0 runs per nine innings this season. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He owns a pedestrian 4.14 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. Freeland has allowed 2.9 more hits and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Making the majority of his starts at Coors Field certainly factors in but Freeland has given up just under 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Of course, Los Angeles should have the edge in the later innings in this one as well with a bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies ‘pen entered this series having recorded a 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Braves v. Phillies -113 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies lost Bryce Harper to a broken thumb but did take three of four games from the Padres in San Diego. Now they return home to host the division-rival Braves who are fresh off an emotionally-charged series against former teammate Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers (they lost two out of three games). Atlanta is dealing with injury issues of its own with Ozzie Albies recently sidelined and Ronald Acuna Jr. dealing with a nagging foot injury. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Braves on Tuesday. He’s been pitching well lately but it’s worth noting that his last three starts have come against the Pirates, Cubs and Giants. He has actually struggled on the road this season, recording a 5.64 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Overall this season, Morton has posted a 4.19 FIP and 1.28 WHIP, allowing just shy of five runs per nine innings. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that has posted a 4.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over its last seven games, most recently coughing up a late lead against the Dodgers on Sunday. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. We backed the Phillies in his most recent start as they came up short by a 4-2 score against Texas. Wheeler didn’t have his best stuff on that afternoon but his overall numbers don’t lie. Wheeler owns a sparkling 2.27 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings on the season. The Phillies bullpen turned things around on its most recent road trip, checking in with a 3.33 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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06-28-22 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap in the Bronx on Tuesday as the A’s send Frankie Montas to the hill against rookie J.P. Sears for the Yankees. Montas has endured a couple of rocky stretches this season but his overall numbers have levelled out as he’s posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 89 2/3 innings of work. He’s averaging a full six innings per start which certainly isn’t commonplace in today’s MLB. While the A’s bullpen has generally been a disappointment this season, the hope is that we won’t have to see too much of it on Tuesday and I will point out that it has held up better on the road than at home, recording a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP entering last night’s action. Sears has made just three appearances with the big club in the Bronx, including one start. In seven innings of work he’s yet to allow an earned run. His minor league numbers at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre jump off the page as he’s posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.74 WHIP to go along with a 50:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39 1/3 innings of work. He has given up just 2.75 runs per nine innings at the AAA level. Sears can pitch confidently here knowing that the A’s hit just north of .200 as a team against left-handed starters this season, averaging only 3.2 runs per game along the way. Behind Sears is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Yanks’ relief corps enters tonight’s game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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06-27-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly know their way around low-scoring games with the Orioles entering Monday's matchup off seven consecutive 'under' results and the Mariners checking in sporting a 3-11-1 o/u mark over their last 15 contests. I expect a similar story to unfold on Monday. Tyler Wells will take the ball for the Orioles. It's easy to forget that he posted a terrific 3.63 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 57 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year. While he got off to a bit of a slow start this season he's since rounded into form, lowering his FIP to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.10. Opponents are averaging just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings against him. Mariners rookie George Kirby will be Wells' counterpart on Monday. He has recorded a 3.76 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while yielding under 3.9 runs per nine innings during his rookie season. It gets better. This matchup pits two of the league's best bullpens based on current form. The O's 'pen has posted a collective 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven games and has converted 12 saves while blowing just one on the road this season. Seattle has arguably been even better in that department lately, recording a 0.44 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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06-27-22 | White Sox v. Angels -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Chicago at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the White Sox yesterday as they salvaged the finale of their four-game series against the Orioles but just barely as they prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll go back to fading Chicago, at least in the first five innings, as it heads to Anaheim to open a series against the Angels. Los Angeles also won yesterday, avoiding a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Mariners. On Monday, Los Angeles will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard. While he's had an up-and-down first season in Anaheim, he has posted a 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. I liked the way he battled in his most recent start, working into the eighth inning for the second time in his last five outings. Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito. He simply hasn't been able to regain previous form this season, recording a 5.08 FIP and 1.56 WHIP. Opponents have lit him up for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. It seems that something just isn't right with the right-hander as he's been tagged for 15 earned runs in his last two starts alone. I don't see any considerable advantage for the Angels in the later innings in this one - in fact, the White Sox bullpen has been a bright spot, posting a collective 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. The Angels have converted 11 saves while blowing eight at home. We'll back the Halos in the first five innings only here. Take Los Angeles first five innings (8*). |
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06-27-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies had their three-game 'under' streak snapped in a 6-3 loss in Minnesota yesterday. Still, it's worth noting that since scoring eight runs in the first game of their road trip last week, they've been held to a grand total of 10 runs over their last five contests. All three games in the Dodgers weekend series in Atlanta stayed 'under the total, even with last night's game going to extra innings. Los Angeles is of course still missing Mookie Betts after he suffered a rib injury last week. While tonight's starting pitching matchup won't grab headlines, I feel it's a good one. Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is having a terrific season, recording a 3.29 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff last time out against Cincinnati but still gave up just three earned runs over five innings. Anderson checks in sporting a 3.13 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six road starts this season. Colorado will counter with Chad Kuhl. While his numbers certainly don't jump off the page, he's actually having a career year by most accounts. Kuhl has posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding 4.21 runs per nine innings. He's actually settled in nicely at hitter-friendly Coors Field, recording a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings of work. While the Rockies bullpen has been shaky lately, it has generally pitched better here at home, sporting a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only four blown. The Dodgers 'pen has of course been lights out for much of the season. It entered last night's action with a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over its last seven contests and has blown just one save (compared to seven converted) on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-22 | Rangers -135 v. Royals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers just dropped two of three games at home against the Nationals. Not good. They're still 5-4 over their last nine games and have a favorable starting pitching matchup in Monday's series-opener against the Royals in Kansas City. I hesitate to say that Rangers starter Martin Perez has 'turned back the clock' this season as he's pitching better than he has at any point previously in his career. Perez checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.62 FIP and 1.13 WHIP, allowing only 2.47 runs per nine innings. He already tamed the Royals once this season, yielding just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings back in early May. You would have to go back four starts against Kansas City to find the last time Perez didn't pitch his team to victory (back in 2019). Royals starter Kris Bubic is coming off back-to-back solid outings including arguably his best start of the season last time out against the Angels (he allowed two earned runs over six innings). His overall numbers don't lie, however, as he's posted a 5.36 FIP and 1.79 WHIP this season. Opponents have reached Bubic for north of 7.4 runs per nine innings. Of course, there's little reason to trust the Royals bullpen as it has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home this season. The Rangers 'pen has actually held up well, recording a 3.09 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.22 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road, where it has converted nine saves while blowing four. Take Texas (8*). |
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06-27-22 | Pirates v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Pirates are coming off a frustrating series sweep at the hands of the Rays in St. Petersburg as they were close in all three games but ultimately couldn't finish the job. A big reason for that is their fading bullpen. Pittsburgh's relief corps enters Monday's game having posted a collective 5.61 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. That doesn't bode well as Miguel Yajure will get a spot start for the Buccos in the opener of this series in Washington. He owns a career 7.00 FIP and 1.67 WHIP in 32 1/3 career innings at the big league level. So far this season, Yajure has pitched only 10 1/3 innings and it hasn't been pretty as he's been tagged for 13 earned runs on 16 hits and six walks. Washington will hand the ball to Erick Fedde. He's been his usual inconsistent self this season, recording a 4.25 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Fedde tossed six shutout innings against Baltimore in his most recent start but that came on the road. Here at home, he owns a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts. The Pirates will be getting their second look at him this season. Behind Fedde is a Nationals bullpen that has been pedestrian at best lately, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over its last seven games. Pirates hitters ran into some incredibly tough pitching against the Rays and should be more than happy to move on to Washington where the Nats allow 5.4 runs per game. Take the over (9*). |
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06-26-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -195 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The White Sox have looked awful in the first three games of this series - there's no question about that. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday as they send their best starter to the hill in Dylan Cease against Jordan Lyles of the Orioles. Cease has quietly put together a terrific campaign so far, recording a 2.59 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing just under 3.9 runs per nine innings. In fact, he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last five starts. While the White Sox bullpen has struggled for the most part this season, it has actually shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games entering yesterday's action (it tossed 2+ innings of shutout ball in yesterday's loss). Jordan Lyles has looked very 'Jordan Lyles-like' for the Orioles this season, posting a 4.31 FIP and 1.50 WHIP and giving up just shy of 5.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox saw him last September and lit him up for five earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings in a 7-2 victory. Take Chicago (6*). |
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06-26-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates have certainly been snake-bitten in this series, dropping consecutive games by a single run, one coming in extra innings and the other in walk-off fashion in a game they led 5-3 in the eighth inning yesterday. Here, I don't anticipate the game being as close as the Rays send their ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against rookie Roansy Contreras of the Buccos. McClanahan has firmly planted himself in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation this season, posting a 2.74 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.35 runs per nine innings. The Rays have dropped his last two starts with each of those coming against the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees. Prior to that they had won each of McClanahan's last seven trips to the hill. Contreras is having a fine season by rookie standards. However, I will point out that he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season and in the previous two outings he gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings of work. Contreras checks in with a 4.11 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, again those are solid numbers, but don't really compare to McClanahan's. Also note that the Rays should continue to have a big advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season. The Pirates 'pen has really struggled, entering yesterday's game with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over its last seven games (and proceeded to cough up the two-run lead in yesterday's loss). Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-26-22 | Astros v. Yankees -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Houston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees could just as easily have dropped all three games in this series as they've only managed to salvage the opener in come-from-behind walk-off fashion. I do look for them to close out the series on a positive note on Sunday. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. He checks in sporting a pedestrian 4.75 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, allowing north of 11.0 walks and just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Yankees starter Nestor Cortes Jr. He has posted a 3.32 FIP and 0.96 WHIP, allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings. Cortes has yielded 4.8 fewer hits per nine innings compared to Urquidy. As I've mentioned previously in this series, the bullpens are virtually a wash with both relief corps' pitching effectively. Here, I look for the Yankees bats against Urquidy to prove to be the difference. Take New York (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds got the better of the struggling Giants in the opener of this series last night, taking advantage of a starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie Graham Ashcraft turning in another fine outing. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as San Francisco hands the ball to its ace Logan Webb against Reds struggling veteran right-hander Mike Minor. Webb went through a bit of a rough patch earlier this season but has once again righted the ship and checks in with a 3.05 FIP and 1.16 WHIP, allowing only 3.36 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He faced the Reds once last season, tossing six shutout innings in an eventual 6-3 Giants victory here at Oracle Park. As I mentioned, Reds starter Mike Minor has had a rough go since joining the rotation. He's recorded an ugly 7.33 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in four starts covering 20 2/3 innings of work. Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered last night's game with a collective 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night by a 6-3 score. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest on Saturday as Boston sends rookie Josh Winckowski to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Winckowski hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents so far, going up against the Orioles, A's and Tigers in his first three big league starts, with all three coming at home no less. With that being said, I like what I've seen from the rookie. He was a little shaky in his debut against the O's but since then has given up just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After issuing three walks in his first career start he's handed out only two free passes over his last two outings. While we're dealing with a small sample size, Winckowski checks in with a respectable 3.80 FIP and has allowed just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. It's not as if the Guardians have been tearing the cover off the ball either, scoring three runs or less in four of their last seven contests. Shane Bieber has rounded into form this season, posting a 2.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while giving up just 3.35 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a terrific Guardians bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action). The Red Sox 'pen has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road (also entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Mets -144 v. Marlins | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night and we'll get behind them on Saturday as they look to continue their recent dominance over the Marlins. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for New York. He's been good but not great this season. He deserved a better fate than a 6-2 loss against these same Marlins last week as he allowed just three earned runs on five hits while striking out nine and walking only two in 6 1/3 innings of work. For the season, Bassitt has posted a 3.80 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. His 4.17 runs allowed per nine innings is a little concerning but still a far cry from what his opponent today, Trevor Rogers, has given up. Rogers may not be long for the Marlins rotation if he continues to struggle. He's recorded an ugly 4.89 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season while yielding just shy of 6.3 runs per nine innings. Note that he's allowing 2.3 more hits and 1.8 more walks per nine innings compared to Bassitt. The Bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but we can confidently get behind the Mets with the expectation that they can build a considerable early lead. Take New York (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -151 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays got the better of the Brewers in last night's series opener, using a strong starting pitching edge to their advantage with Alek Manoah against Adrian Houser. Here, we should see a different story unfold as it's the Brewers that have the advantage on the mound with ace Corbin Burnes going up against a struggling Yusei Kikuchi. Burnes has had a few hiccups with his command in the early going this season but has generally straightened things out and owns a terrific 2.91 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging only 2.63 runs per nine innings against the right-hander. It's been a much different story for Kikuchi. The Blue Jays hoped he would provide some stability at the back of their rotation after coming over from the Mariners but that hasn't been the case. Kikuchi checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 6.0 walks and almost two home runs per nine innings with opponents averaging 5.43 runs off of him. Off last night's loss, the Brewers don't figure to be in a forgiving mood on Saturday. Note that Milwaukee should also have the edge in the later innings as its bullpen entered last night's game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Jays 'pen recorded a 7.29 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -175 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cardinals were shut out in last night's series-opener against the Cubs - their second consecutive loss. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they have the right pitcher on the mound in Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.84 runs per nine innings. In 10 career starts against Chicago, Mikolas has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Cubs defeated the Cards with Mikolas starting, back in July 2019. Interestingly, his counterpart on that night was Kyle Hendricks, who of course locked down the Cards in last night's shutout victory. Adrian Sampson will get a spot start for Chicago after an effective extended relief appearance. In limited big league work last year, Sampson posted a terrific 2.80 ERA but his 5.72 FIP told a much different story. Prior to getting called up this season, Sampson had recorded a pedestrian 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings pitched at AAA Iowa. The Cardinals bullpen has been among the best in baseball lately, posting a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the last seven games. The Cubs 'pen has been solid lately as well, but certainly hasn't been reliable on the road this season, recording a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -151 | 3-0 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are a mess right now and it's not just one area of the game they're struggling in. Chicago has dropped 14 of its last 17 games overall and might have hit rock-bottom in Pittsburgh this week, losing three out of four games, giving up a whopping 32 runs while committing 10 errors in the field. Things aren't likely to get any easier as they head to St. Louis to face a Cardinals club that managed a 2-2 split in Milwaukee earlier this week and checks in 8-6 over its last 14 games. Kyle Hendricks was once a steadying force in the Cubs rotation but not this season. He has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the Cubs bullpen behind Hendricks has held up well lately, it still owns a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Andre Pallante will get his fourth start of the season for the Cardinals. He's held up reasonably well overall this season, recording a 4.02 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. Interestingly, he's done a tremendous job of limiting damage, yielding just under 1.7 runs per nine innings. Having a tremendous defense behind him helps. I mentioned the Cubs woes in the field - on the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Cardinals committed an error. The St. Louis bullpen has posted a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with eight saves converted and only two blown at home this season and has been even better lately, recording a 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over its last seven games. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Rockies v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Colorado and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday but rather than play the full game 'over' the total, we'll look at the first five innings only as I really like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the hitters. German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. To say that he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez enters Friday's start sporting a 4.89 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. Opponents are laying waste to the veteran right-hander to the tune of 6.9 runs per nine innings. Of course, the Twins aren't in much better shape on the mound with Dylan Bundy getting the nod. He did turn in his best outing of the season last time out against Arizona. However, the full season numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 4.52 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing 5.3 runs per nine innings. Both teams enter this game having averaged 5+ runs per game over the last week. Expect early offense at Target Field on Friday. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -157 | 4-1 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 8:10 pm et on Friday. After a productive three-game series against the Blue Jays earlier in the week, the White Sox were blanked in the opener of this series with the Orioles last night. I look for them to get back on track on Friday, at least early on in this rematch with Baltimore. Austin Voth will get another spot start for the Orioles. He worked just 2 2/3 innings against the Rays last Sunday and not a lot will likely be asked of him here either. I do expect the White Sox bats to get to him, however, noting that Voth has posted an ugly 4.71 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings of work this season with opponents averaging a whopping 8.76 runs per nine innings against him. Note that while Voth managed to get through 2 2/3 innings relatively unscathed against the Rays last time out, things might have been different were the Rays not thrown at home on a play in the second inning. Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech. While he's had some command issues at times, he has still recorded a terrific 0.99 WHIP to go along with a 3.49 FIP. I mentioned the command issues as Kopech is yielding 4.0 walks per nine innings but he's managed to limit the damage (he allows just 2.7 runs per nine innings) thanks to holding opponents to just under 5.0 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as the O's do hold a significant advantage when it comes to the bullpens in this game (Baltimore's bullpen has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games while Chicago's relief corps' has posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the same stretch). Take Chicago first five innings (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nationals as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss in Baltimore (we won with the Orioles in that game) and start this three-game interleague set in Texas with a victory on Friday. The starting pitching matchup will feature Paolo Espino of the Nationals against Dane Dunning for the Rangers. While Dunning had a terrific campaign last year, he's struggled here in 2022. The right-hander enters Friday's start with a 4.00 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 4.5 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three home starts to find the last time he was on the hill for a Rangers win here in Texas. Espino will get another spot start for the Nats. While he's made only two starts, he has worked 35 1/3 innings this season, posting a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. Opponents have reached Espino for just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. While the Nationals bullpen has been awful on the road for the most part this season, it has shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games overall. The Rangers 'pen has converted only eight saves while blowing six here at home this season. As poorly as things have gone for Washington, it actually averages more runs per game on the road (4.4) than Texas does at home (4.2). Finally, I'll note that Texas checks in a woeful 14-23 in its last 37 games as a favorite, outscored by 0.9 runs on average along the way. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates have enjoyed an offensive surge lately, keyed by some top prospect call-ups. While they prevailed by an 8-7 score against the Cubs yesterday, they're just a day removed from a 14-5 loss. I believe the Rays have a significant starting pitching advantage here with Jeffrey Springs taking the ball against Mitch Keller for the Buccos. Springs checks in with a terrific 2.98 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.0 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Keller has managed to string together a number of quality starts but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. Note that he owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season, giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. While the Rays offense has been somewhat disappointing, particularly at home, the Pirates average just 3.2 runs per game on the road. Also note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has been shaky at best lately, recording a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over their last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as three early home runs ultimately resulted in a high-scoring affair (we did win with the Yankees in comeback fashion). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday, however, as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Justin Verlander of the Astros and Luis Severino of the Yankees. Verlander has come back strong this season, posting a 3.40 FIP and 0.89 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings. I like the bounce-back spot for him here after he struggled over 3 2/3 innings in a 7-0 loss to the White Sox last time out. Note that Verlander owns a 2.15 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven road outings this season. It's a similar story for Severino. He has recorded a 3.72 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.4 runs per nine innings. Like Verlander, he looks to bounce back from a shaky outing as he gave up five earned runs over five innings against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. Behind the two starters are two strong bullpens that, despite the Astros coughing up a late three-run lead last night, have performed well lately. Houston's 'pen still owns a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yanks relief corps' has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While we did back Ranger Suarez in his most recent start - a victory over the Washington Nationals last week - I won’t hesitate to switch gears and fade the right-hander as he takes the mound against the Padres on Thursday. Suarez hasn’t been able to regain the form that saw him excel in the Philadelphia rotation last year. He checks in sporting a 4.25 FIP and 1.51 WHIP with opponents averaging just a tick below 5.0 runs per nine innings against him. In stark contrast, Padres starter Joe Musgrove has firmly planted himself in the early N.L. Cy Young Award conversation, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging barely north of 2.0 runs per nine innings against him. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Padres pitching staff in this one as well as their bullpen has been excellent this season, particularly at home where they’ve posted a collective 3.04 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday’s action). The Phillies ‘pen remains a work-in-progress, recording a 4.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road this season. Take San Diego (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a better starting pitching matchup than perhaps it first appears on paper. Dean Kremer will make his third start of the season for Baltimore. He struggled during his time in the bigs last year but has shown improvement here in 2022, posting a 3.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in limited work (15 1/3 innings). Quietly, the O’s have had one of the better bullpens in baseball this season, having recorded a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for the White Sox. I hesitate to say that he’s ‘turned back the clock’ as he’s actually been getting it done for years’. Cueto owns a 3.64 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings pitched this season. Opponents have managed to plate less than 3.2 runs per nine innings off of him. The White Sox bullpen hasn’t been all that reliable this season but has shown signs of turning it around lately, entering yesterday’s contest sporting a collective 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over their previous seven games. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. When most think of this matchup they think about the explosive offenses. I’m anticipating a contest dominated by pitching in Thursday’s series-opener, however. Astros starter Framber Valdez is often overshadowed by Justin Verlander at the front of the rotation but Valdez has been every bit as good this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing just a shade north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He catches the Yankees returning home on no rest following consecutive road series’ against the division rival Blue Jays and Rays. Jameson Taillon continues to impress for the Yankees. He checks in with a 3.00 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. While he has allowed over eight hits per nine innings, he’s managed to keep opposing lineups in check by yielding just 1.1 walk and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been terrific this season and certainly of late with the Yanks ‘pen having posted a 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action) and the Astros relief corps’ having recorded a 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (9*). |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Yankees in thrilling come-from-behind fashion last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them as they return home to host the Houston Astros on Thursday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup between left-hander Framber Valdez of the Astros and righty Jameson Taillon of the Yankees in this series-opener. There's not a lot to separate the two starters this season but here we'll find reason to give the edge to Taillon. Note that he has posted a terrific 3.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season. While Valdez has had some issues with command at times, issuing north of 3.0 walks per nine innings, Taillon has been in complete control, allowing just 1.1 walk per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 runs per nine innings off of Taillon this season. Of course, the Yankees have been dominant at home (and just about everywhere else) this season, going 29-7 while averaging 5.0 runs per game in the Bronx. Their +145 run differential is more than 2X greater than all but the Dodgers (they're +124). While the Astros hold down the A.L. West Division lead by a comfortable margin, they've only outscored the opposition by 61 runs on the campaign. Take New York (10*). |
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06-23-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers haven’t been doing Clayton Kershaw any favors since he returned from the I.L., producing only three runs in his last two starts, both resulting in losses. Kershaw does continue to pitch well, having posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.85 WHIP this season. He’ll face a Reds team that had won just seven of 19 games against left-handed starters this season entering last night’s game against fellow lefty Tyler Anderson. Reds starter Hunter Greene is averaging just 5.0 innings per start this season which doesn’t bode well as the Cincinnati bullpen behind him has struggled, recording a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just four saves converted and four blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Greene himself has had a tough time as well, posting a 5.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He’s allowed 1.7 more home runs and 2.5 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Opponents are averaging 5.4 runs per nine innings against the rookie. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (9*). |