Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-28-22 | Braves v. Cardinals -120 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have split the first two games in this series and I look for the Cardinals to have the early advantage in Sunday's finale. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the visiting Braves. He owns a 4.20 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing a shade over 4.5 runs per nine innings this season. Odorizzi pitched one of his best games of the season last time out, allowing just one earned run over six innings but that came against the light-hitting Pirates. Across his previous two starts he had allowed seven earned runs in nine innings. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for the Cards. He's enjoying a terrific season having recorded a 3.62 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while yielding 3.17 runs per nine innings. He faced the Braves once last season, allowing only one earned run while striking out 11 in seven innings in a 9-1 victory. We'll back the Cards in the first five innings only in this one as the Braves should have the edge in terms of the bullpens, based on recent form (the St. Louis 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over the last seven games). Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Orioles v. Astros -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to answer back, at least early on in Sunday's series-finale. We'll back them in the first five innings only as they have a considerable starting pitching advantage but there's not much of a disparity between the two bullpens, so no real edge in the later innings. Austin Voth will get the start for Baltimore. He checks in having posted a 4.04 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's lasted six innings just once in his 11 starts this season. Houston will counter with its ace, Justin Verlander. He sports a 2.77 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.36 runs per nine innings. Verlander barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball against the Twins. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Giants +100 v. Twins | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Twins have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to salvage the finale on Sunday afternoon. Jakob Junis will take the ball for San Francisco. He's quietly having a fine campaign, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Giants bullpen that has been terrific lately, logging a 1.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Aaron Sanchez will get another turn in the Twins rotation. He's struggled this season, recording a 4.71 FIP and 1.69 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.59 runs per nine innings. The Twins bullpen hasn't been much better lately, sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take San Francisco (9*). |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays have been blanked in the first two games of this series bringing an end to what was a terrific run over the previous week. Here, I do look for Toronto to salvage the series-finale, and do so in convincing fashion. Tucker Davidson will get another turn in the rotation for the Angels. Things haven't gone particularly well for him this season as he sports a 5.63 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 6.23 runs per nine innings. He's not really fooling any opposing hitters, having topped out at three strikeouts in his six previous starts this season. Ross Stripling will counter for Toronto. He's been their most reliable starter this season, entering Sunday's start with a 2.80 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.22 runs per nine innings. The Jays have been bitten by the long ball in this series but Stripling has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. The bullpens are virtually a wash based on recent form. I feel Toronto has enough of a starting pitching edge to warrant backing them on the run-line here. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Oakland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in last night's game between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the full game 'over' on Saturday. Domingo German will take the ball for New York. He's coming off a solid outing against the Mets but his overall numbers this season aren't great as he's posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing 4.15 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Adam Oller of the A's. He checks in sporting a 6.44 FIP and 1.69 WHIP while yielding a whopping 6.86 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Oller is an A's bullpen that has struggled, particularly here at home where it has recorded a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing eight. The Yankees bullpen is obviously elite but has yielded seven earned runs over the last seven games, so not invincible lately. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Dodgers -190 v. Marlins | 1-2 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. It wasn't easy but the Dodgers ultimately hung 10 runs on the Marlins in an extra innings victory last night. I expect a more straightforward result on Saturday. Los Angeles will give Dustin May his second start since coming off the I.L. - his second straight outing against these same Marlins. May was terrific in his season debut, allowing just one hit while striking out nine and walking two in five shutout innings. Note that May was also sharp in six minor league rehab outings, posting a sparkling 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He should have the advantage of having a fresh arm down the stretch, unlike his counterpart on Saturday, Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. We've won plenty supporting Alcantara (or the 'under') in many of his starts this season but I won't hesitate to go the other way on Saturday. To say the Dodgers have had the Marlins ace's number would be an understatement. He's faced them four times in his career, allowing 23 earned runs in only 14 innings of work. That includes a 3 2/3 innings outing in which he was tagged for six earned runs last week in Los Angeles. The bullpen matchup favors the Dodgers as well as their relief corps has posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Marlins 'pen has recorded a collective 5.68 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Guardians -110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I wanted a piece of the Guardians yesterday in the opener of this series but that was before they opened as a favorite. I ultimately decided to lay off (thankfully) but won't do the same on Friday as they send their ace to the hill in Shane Bieber against Logan Gilbert of the Mariners. Bieber has quietly posted a 2.83 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while giving up 3.35 runs per nine innings this season. He didn’t fare particularly well in a pair of starts against the Mariners last year but has yet to face them here in 2022. Note that he has recorded a sparkling 1.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three outings. Logan Gilbert checks in with a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. He's now logged a career-high 143 1/3 innings this season which is more than he pitched in AAA and the majors combined during his rookie campaign last year. On the season, Gilbert has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 0.7 more hits, 0.4 more home runs and 0.6 more walks per nine innings compared to Bieber. While both bullpens have been terrific lately, the Guardians relief corps has been a little better. In fact, Cleveland's 'pen hasn't allowed a single earned run while recording a collective 0.76 WHIP over the last seven games. It has converted 21 saves whlie blowing only 10 on the road this season. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. After a slugfest in last night’s series-opener, I like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up to produce a low-scoring first five innings on Friday night in Oakland. Gerrit Cole will get the nod for the visiting Yankees. He’s having another terrific season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Cole last faced the A’s right here in Oakland last season, tossing six shutout innings. Former Yankee (he was a key piece coming over to the A’s in the Frankie Montas trade) JP Sears will start for Oakland. He’s done nothing but impress since joining Oakland and on the season owns a 3.39 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 1.93 runs per nine innings (small sample size of 37 1/3 innings, I know). By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid two bullpens that entered this series in only average recent form, relatively speaking. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets will once again have a significant edge on the mound on Friday as they send Chris Bassitt against Chad Kuhl, who makes his return from the I.L. for the Rockies. Bassitt enters with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. Over his last four starts, Bassitt has yielded only two earned runs in 26 innings of work. Behind Bassitt is a Mets bullpen that came into this series sporting a 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games. Kuhl gave up four walks and three hits over five innings (while striking out six) in a minor league rehab stint. In the bigs this season he has recorded a 5.22 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up 5.5 runs per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen continues to struggle, logging a 6.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering this series). Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I expect plenty of offense in this Pennsylvania showdown on Friday as the Pirates send Bryse Wilson to the mound against Bailey Falter of the Phillies. Wilson hasn’t been good this season. That may be oversimplifying things but facts are facts. Wilson checks in with a 5.24 FIP And 1.44 WHIP while allowing a whopping 6.55 runs per nine innings. He’s actually coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing three earned runs over seven innings against the Reds. I’m not counting on a repeat performance against a tougher opponent here. Falter has endured a rough rookie campaign, posting a 5.50 FIP and 1.29 WHIP, yielding 5.0 runs per nine innings. Like Wilson, Falter is also coming off one of his best outings of the season, holding the Mets to one earned run over six innings. He still owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four home starts. The bullpens might be an even bigger issue in this matchup. Pittsburgh’s relief corps has recorded a collective 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games. The Phillies ‘pen entered last night’s action sporting a collective 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-25-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a mismatch from all angles as the Mets send Jacob deGrom to the hill against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies. deGrom has had electric stuff since returning to the Mets starting rotation, posting a 0.63 FIP and 0.51 WHIP in four starts, spanning 23 1/3 innings of work. He’s giving up just north of 2.3 runs per nine innings. Behind deGrom is a Mets bullpen that has been in fine form recently, recording a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games. Feltner has had plenty of ups and downs for the Rockies this season, with more downs than ups. He sports a 4.79 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.2 runs per nine frames. The Rockies bullpen is among the worst in the league seemingly every year and 2022 has been no different. The Colorado relief corps checks in with a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering yesterday’s action. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-25-22 | Blue Jays -162 v. Red Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. While this will be the Red Sox fifth look at Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman this season, they’ve yet to have much success and I’m not convinced anything will change on Thursday. Gausman owns a sparkling 2.05 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP while giving up less than 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. Behind him is a Blue Jays bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a collective 2.66 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. Kutter Crawford will counter for Boston. He’s had a rough rookie campaign so far, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. Note that the Jays will be seeing Crawford for the second time after scoring three earned runs in six innings against him in a 4-1 victory in July. The Red Sox bullpen behind Crawford continues to struggle. It has recorded a collective 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night’s action). Take Toronto (8*) |
|||||||
08-25-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I’ll gladly back the Phillies laying the half-run in the first five innings only on Thursday as they send Aaron Nola to the mound against Justin Dunn of the Reds. Dunn has yet to figure it out at the big league level, recording an 8.52 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in limited action (13 1/3 innings) with the Reds this season. This is his fourth big league season after spending three years with the Mariners and his career FIP and WHIP are 5.94 and 1.40, respectively. It’s a different story for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who is often overshadowed by Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. Nola has posted a 2.76 FIP and 0.96 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.31 runs per nine innings. We’ll avoid backing the Phillies in the full game as their bullpen continues to struggle, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-24-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the ‘over’ thanks to a late scoring flurry last night but I like the chances of seeing a low-scoring start to Wednesday’s contest as we have two of the more underrated starters in baseball - this season at least - going head-to-head. Zac Gallen will get the start for Arizona. He has worked 21 1/3 scoreless innings over his last there starts, lowering his FIP to 3.26 and his WHIP to 0.97. Yielding just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings, he’s a fringe N.L. Cy Young Award candidate. The issue with the D’Backs is their bullpen, which owns an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching two over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Speaking of struggling bullpens, the Royals relief corps recorded a collective 4.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over that same stretch. You can understand why I’m looking to avoid those two ‘pens and play the first five innings ‘under’ only in this one. Brady Singer takes the ball for Kansas City. He owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while giving up 3.44 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals last three opponents with Singer on the mound have combined to score just four runs. He’ll have the advantage of facing the D’Backs for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series last night and I anticipate seeing more of the same on Wednesday. The Blue Jays beat up on Red Sox rookie starter Josh Winckowski last night and should be pleased to face another rookie hurler on Wednesday in Brayan Bello. Bello struggled mightily in three starts, including one against Toronto, before going on the shelf due to injury. In 17 big league innings pitched this season he's logged a 3.65 FIP and an ugly 2.29 WHIP, allowing a ridiculous 14.8 hits and 5.8 walks per nine innings (small sample size, I know). His only saving grace is that he hasn't allowed a home run. That should change tonight. Jose Berrios will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's not exactly having a banner year - far from it, in fact. He checks in with a 4.88 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while allowing 5.46 runs per nine innings. The Red Sox will have the advantage of seeing him for the third time this season. The Blue Jays bullpen has held up well lately but certainly hasn't been invincible on the road where it has converted 12 saves but blown nine. Meanwhile, the Red Sox relief corps has posted a 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
08-24-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I’m expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Spenser Watkins of the Orioles on Wednesday. Giolito is having a tough campaign all around, posting a 4.13 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while allowing 5.65 runs per nine innings. Save for his strikeout average of 10.2 per nine innings, Giolito has been awful across the board, allowing 10.4 hits, 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. I expect the O’s to take advantage on Wednesday. Watkins has only been marginally better than Giolito this season, recording a 4.34 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine frames. The White Sox couldn’t muster an earned run against him over five innings in their lone previous look at him this season back on June 25th but I’m confident they can get to him here. Entering last night’s action, the White Sox bullpen had posted a collective 7.30 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last seven games while the O’s relief corps checked in with a 4.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-24-22 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The early stages of this game should be no contest based on the Mariners starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie George Kirby taking the ball against veteran Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals. Kirby has posted a 3.38 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings for the Mariners this season. The reason we’ll back the Mariners in the first five innings only here is their considerable starting pitching advantage, whereas the Nats bullpen has been terrific lately and could hold its own late. Sanchez is having a brutal campaign, recording a 7.17 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding just under 6.7 runs per nine innings. He's allowing a whopping 2.8 home runs per nine innings. Take Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-24-22 | Rangers -130 v. Rockies | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers have both the starting pitching and bullpen edge in this game and we’ll back them as a short favourite on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. Martin Perez has ‘turned back the clock’ for Texas this season - in fact, he’s having a career year. Perez checks in with a 3.39 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up only 3.22 runs per nine innings. He’ll be looking for revenge here after giving up three earned runs on seven hits over four innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Rockies back in April. The Rangers bullpen has been quietly effective lately, sporting a 2.92 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Journeyman right-hander Jose Urena gets another turn in the rotation for the Rockies. He’s had a tough time following a solid start to his Colorado stint, posting a 5.57 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.65 runs per nine innings. Behind Urena is a Rockies bullpen that checks in with a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven contests (also entering last night’s action). Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
08-24-22 | Giants v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over San Francisco at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. This starting pitching matchup is closer to even than most bettors likely believe as the Giants hand the ball to Logan Webb against Matt Manning of the Tigers. With Detroit’s bullpen struggling, we’ll back it in the first five innings only here. Webb owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.43 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart, Matt Manning, checks in with a 3.74 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while giving up just 2.81 runs per nine innings, albeit with a smaller sample size. I will point out that Manning has posted a sub-3.00 ERA at the AAA level this season. Note that the Giants average just 4.3 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season (entering last night’s action) compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. He didn't have his best stuff against the Dodgers last week but Milwaukee still managed to pull out a 5-3 victory. I expect a better performance from Burnes here, noting that he has posted a 3.01 FIP and 0.94 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.72 runs per nine innings. He's been at his best on the road, where he sports a 1.94 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 11 starts. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He silenced the Brewers bats over seven innings last week in Milwaukee. Gonsolin owns a 1.53 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Overall, he has recorded a 3.34 FIP and 0.86 WHIP, giving up just under 2.2 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are in excellent current form with the Brewers relief corps entering this series having posted a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last seven games and the Dodgers 'pen recording a 1.12 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While this is a matchup of two teams going nowhere this season, I do expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks. Zach Davies will take the ball for the visiting D'Backs. He owns a 4.58 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while yielding 4.45 runs per nine innings. He's already faced the Royals once this season, giving up four earned runs and lasting only 3 2/3 innings back in May. The bigger problem for Arizona right now is its fading bullpen. The D'Backs 'pen checks in with an 8.55 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games. It has converted just 15 saves while blowing nine on the road this season. Jon Heasley will counter for the Royals. He was tagged for three earned runs over five innings in an outing against the D'Backs in May. For the season, Heasley owns an ugly 5.95 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while giving up 6.2 runs per nine innings. The Royals bullpen entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins inexplicably dropped three games in a row against the Rangers over the last three days and now face the unenviable task of heading to Houston to face Justin Verlander and the Astros on Tuesday. Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the visiting Twins. He was effective in his lone outing since joining Minnesota, that coming back on August 1st against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that in a minor league stint with the Twins AAA affiliate, St. Paul, Sanchez recorded an unimpressive 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, striking out just over 6.0 batters per nine innings. In the majors this year, Sanchez owns a 4.93 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.93 runs per nine innings. Verlander hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but he certainly wasn't awful, yielding six earned runs in 13 innings. Note that he'll be starting on six days' rest on Tuesday which should be beneficial considering he's logged 143 innings this season. Verlander owns a 2.88 FIP and 0.88 WHIP on the season, allowing just 2.45 runs per nine innings. We'll lay the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings only here as their bullpen has been awful lately, posting a collective 7.16 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen owns a 1.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Blue Jays -135 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jays have certainly had the Red Sox number this season, taking five of six previous meetings. I look for their series dominance to continue on Tuesday. Ross Stripling has been the unsung hero of the Blue Jays starting rotation this season, posting a 2.87 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.34 runs per nine innings. He hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in three previous outings against Boston this season, allowing five earned runs in 14 innings of work, but the Jays still won two of those three games including an 8-4 victory here at Fenway Park. Rookie Josh Winckowski will counter for Boston. He remains with the big club out of necessity only as he continues to struggle. Winckowski has recorded a 5.21 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.34 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup favors the Blue Jays here as well as their relief corps checks in sporting a collective 1.96 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 7.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they send their ace Max Fried to the hill against JT Brubaker of the Pirates. Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having posted a 2.49 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just 2.79 runs per nine innings. He can get a leg up on another leading Cy Young candidate in Max Scherzer after the Mets right-hander suffered a loss against the Yankees last night. Interestingly, Fried has opposed Brubaker twice before in his career, including earlier this season, with the Braves winning both of those games by a combined 10-2 margin. Brubaker checks in with a 3.67 FIP and 1.43 WHIP on the campaign. He has allowed just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that Brubaker gives up 1.5 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.9 more walks per nine innings compared to Fried this season. The bullpens are 'no contest' based on recent form as the Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games while the Pittsburgh relief corps has recorded a 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the same stretch, entering last night's action. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | White Sox -139 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. White Sox starter Dylan Cease didn't have his best stuff last time out but his team bailed him out in an eventual 4-3 win over the Astros. It was a different story for Orioles starter Austin Voth who tossed six shutout innings in Toronto before the Baltimore bullpen coughed it up in a 6-1 defeat. Here, we'll back Cease in the first five innings only as the White Sox bullpen continues to struggle. Note that Cease owns a stellar 2.87 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.76 runs per nine innings. Voth on the other hand has posted a 3.86 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. While Cease does allow 1.3 more walks per nine innings compared to Voth, he's made up for it by yielding 3.5 fewer hits and striking out 3.6 more batters per nine frames. Take Chicago first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We actually missed with the Phillies in this same starting pitching matchup last week in Cincinnati but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here, albeit backing Philadelphia laying a half-run in the first five innings only this time around. Nick Lodolo will look to build off of his seven shutout innings he tossed against the Phillies last time out. That start came at home. The road hasn't been so kind to the rookie left-hander as he checks in with an 8.48 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in three outings away from home this season. On the campaign, Lodolo owns a pedestrian 4.12 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 4.45 runs per nine innings. Ranger Suarez is having another fine season for the Phillies. He sports a 3.68 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 3.86 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds average 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg) and just 3.6 runs per game on the road, entering last night's action. We'll play the first five innings only as the Phillies bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 5.72 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Contrast that with the Reds 'pen which posted a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-22-22 | Marlins -134 v. A's | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami first five innings over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. PLEASE NOTE: Edward Cabrera will start in place of Pablo Lopez for the Marlins. We'll stick with the play as this is more of a fade of Oller, albeit at a slightly lower rating. The Marlins just got swept in a three-game series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and have now dropped four games in a row overall. I do look for them to bounce back, at least early on, in Monday's game in Oakland. Miami will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez. He checks in sporting a 3.77 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while yielding 4.03 runs per nine innings. He'll be facing an A's club that while coming off a series win over the Mariners, still averages just 3.5 runs per game at home this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.97 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Oakland will give Adam Oller another turn in the rotation. He pitched exceptionally well last time out against Texas but the rest of his campaign hasn't gone nearly as smoothly. Oller owns a 6.36 FIP and 1.69 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work, yielding north of 7.1 runs per nine innings. Take Miami first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-22-22 | Mets -156 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -156 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on the Mets first five innings over the Yankees at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We'll back the Mets in the first five innings only on Monday as while they hold a significant starting pitching advantage, I'm not interested in involving their struggling bullpen, which entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.26 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games. Max Scherzer will get the start for the visiting Mets on Monday. He's having another terrific campaign, posting a 2.42 FIP and 0.93 WHIP while yielding just 2.31 runs per nine innings. Note that he has allowed 3.1 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 1.2 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with his counterpart in this one, Domingo German of the Yankees. German owns a 4.50 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season, giving up an average of 4.45 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mets have already seen him once, scoring two earned runs on five hits including one home run over 4 2/3 innings back on July 27th. Note that the Mets entered yesterday's action having posted a 54-26 record while averaging 5.0 runs per game (compared to their 4.8 rpg season scoring average) against right-handed starting pitching this season. Take the Mets first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-21-22 | Giants -125 v. Rockies | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Giants on Sunday as they send Jakob Junis to the mound against Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Junis is having a fine, albeit injury-plagued, season having posted a 3.61 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while holding opponents to 3.53 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen has turned things around after a rough stretch, posting a collective 2.29 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Colorado will hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, who has had a tough season, recording a 4.39 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
08-21-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. This pitching matchup sets up perfectly as a high-scoring affair on Sunday at PNC Park. Mike Minor will take the ball for the visiting Reds. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.41 FIP and 1.61 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.85 runs per nine innings. His counterpart, Zach Thompson of the Pirates, hasn't been much better, recording a 5.34 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while giving up right around 6.0 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen has had much success this season, with the Reds recording a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road, entering yesterday's action, and the Pirates sporting a 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
08-20-22 | Astros v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the 'under' in the first five innings only in Atlanta on Saturday as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup between Cristian Javier of the Astros and Spencer Strider of the Braves. Javier has posted a 3.39 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing less than 3.0 runs per nine innings this season. The issue for the Astros has been their bullpen, which has struggled to the tune of a 6.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games but we'll aim to avoid that relief corps with this first five innings play. Rookie Spencer Strider is having a fantastic campaign having recorded a 1.98 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while giving up 3.23 runs per nine innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time in his career on Saturday (as will Javier against the Braves). Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-20-22 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays off last night's tough extra innings loss. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.8 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing the left-hander for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back in late July (two earned runs in seven innings). The Kansas City bullpen has posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven contests. Drew Rasmussen will counter for Tampa Bay. We won with the Rays in his most recent start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rasmussen owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings. The Rays bullpen, despite coughing up last night's game in extras, has posted a solid 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-20-22 | Mets v. Phillies -157 | 8-2 | Loss | -157 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night but I look for the Phillies to answer right back in the opener of Saturday's double-header. Trevor Williams will return to the mound for the first time in over a month for the Mets. He owns a 4.01 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Mets bullpen has posted a 5.88 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the last seven games. Philadelphia will hand the ball to its ace Zack Wheeler. He was rocked for six earned runs by these same Mets in his most recent outing but I look for him to respond with a much better start here. Wheeler checks in with a 2.97 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding 3.19 runs per nine innings this season. The Phillies bullpen has recorded a collective 2.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Mariners v. A's +1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -150 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We can make the case that the bullpens are a wash based on recent form and with that in mind, I’m comfortable backing the A’s with an insurance run as they open this divisional showdown against the Mariners on Friday. Marco Gonzales will get the nod for Seattle. He owns a 5.10 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. The A’s will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having racked up nine earned runs in 18 1/3 innings so far. Cole Irvin gets the start for the A’s. He’s turned it around lately, lowering his FIP to 3.91 and WHIP to 1.05 while yielding only 3.41 runs per nine innings. Interestingly, Irvin will be making his first start against the Mariners this season. He’s actually struggled in his career against Seattle but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, noting that he has posted a 1.66 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Cardinals -168 v. Diamondbacks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Cardinals in this series-opener on Friday in Arizona. Miles Mikolas is having another solid campaign for the Cards, posting a 3.71 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while giving up only 3.68 runs per nine innings. The issue with St. Louis is its bullpen which has recorded a collective 6.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action. We’ll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. Rookie left-hander Tommy Henry will take the ball for Arizona. He’s now logged 17 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, recording a 5.13 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while yielding 4.15 runs per nine innings. The Cards are 17-9 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7 rpg). Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Padres dropped the opener of this series 3-1 last night, turning in a lifeless performance in their first game back home off a road trip. We missed with San Diego on the run-line in that game but will come right back with it on Friday, laying the half-run in the first five innings only. San Diego's bullpen has been disappointing as a whole this season and after last night's game, the case can be made for the Nationals 'pen inexplicably being in better current form. Here, we'll get behind Padres starter Blake Snell who has turned things around, lowering his FIP to 2.85 and his WHIP to 1.27. Walks are always going to be an issue but Snell has done a good job of minimizing the damage by allowing just 0.7 home runs and striking out 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Nats have had a tough time against left-handed starting pitching this season, going 11-29 and averaging only 3.6 runs per game, compared to their season scoring average of 3.8 runs per contest. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. Unlike Snell, he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He sports a 4.80 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign. Also note that he gives up 2.7 more hits per nine innings compared to Snell. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Astros v. Braves -125 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Houston at 7:20 pm et on Friday. Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. looked good in his return from injury last time out, tossing six innings of two-hit, shutout ball. However, he had struggled at the minor league level working his way back and I think he’ll be in tough against the Braves on Friday. Note that the Houston bullpen has been awful lately, recording a collective 6.91 ERA and 2.16 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action. On the flip side, the Braves bullpen entered last night’s series-finale against the Mets sporting a collective 1.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests (and proceeded to toss another two scoreless frames). Atlanta will start Kyle Wright on Friday. He’s been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball this season as far as I’m concerned. Wright owns a 3.67 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding the opposition to 3.34 runs per nine innings. He’ll be facing the Astros for the first time in his career, as will be the case with McCullers Jr. against the Braves. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Royals v. Rays -195 | 3-2 | Loss | -195 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. As high as I’ve been on Royals starter Brady Singer lately, I’ll go with the Rays on Friday as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan. McClanahan hasn’t necessarily had his best stuff over his last few outings. With that being said, he still owns a 2.64 FIP and 0.87 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. His lone previous start against the Royals came last year as he tossed five shutout innings in a 7-2 Rays victory here in St. Petersburg. Behind McClanahan is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 22 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Singer has been terrific lately as I mentioned, lowering his FIP to 3.61 and his WHIP to 1.13. He’s giving up just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Rays will be seeing Brady Singer for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back on July 23rd (three hits, two runs - one of them earned - while striking out 12 times). That game was played in Kansas City. The big problem for the Royals is their bullpen, which has posted a collective 7.77 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games, entering this series, not to mention just 13 saves converted compared to 11 blown on the road this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Reds -114 v. Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for the Reds, early on at least, as they send Graham Ashcraft to the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates. Ashcraft hasn’t been dominant by any stretch but he does boast a solid 4.15 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine innings. That’s considerably better than his opponent on Friday, Wilson, who has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings this season. Also note that the Reds have already seen Bryse Wilson once this season and twice since the start of last year while Ashcraft will have the advantage of facing the Buccos for the first time. We’ll play the first five innings only as the Reds bullpen continues to struggle, particularly on the road where it owns a 5.07 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season. Take Cincinnati first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I like betting on good starting pitchers to bounce back from poor outings and that's precisely what we'll do with Padres starter Yu Darvish on Thursday. Darvish has actually been on the mound for losses in each of his last two starts with the most recent coming against the same Nationals club he'll face on Thursday. He certainly didn't have his best stuff against the Nats last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting he owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, posting a 2.17 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 10 starts. Washington will hand the ball to journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez on Thursday. He actually opposed Darvish in that 4-3 Nats victory last week. Let's not get too excited though as Sanchez still owns an ugly 7.48 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 7.5 runs per nine innings in 30 innings of work this season. The Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, recording a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing seven. The Padres 'pen has gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to be working its way out of it having entered yesterday's game with a collective 3.86 ERA over the last seven games before tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Marlins. Here at home this season, the San Diego 'pen owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 14 saves converted and seven blown. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. They really can't set this total low enough for the first five innings on Thursday as we have the best starting pitching matchup on the board with Jacob deGrom going for the Mets against Max Fried of the Braves. deGrom has returned in midseason form for New York after an extended layoff, posting a 0.72 FIP and 0.42 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work. He's held opponents to just 1.62 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). He didn't necessarily have his best stuff against the Braves on August 7th but still struck out 12 and gave up only two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. Note that for his career, deGrom owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts against the Braves. The Mets bullpen on the other hand, has struggled, recording a collective 5.53 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games so we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here. Max Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season for Atlanta, sporting a 2.45 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing only 2.8 runs per nine innings. He most recently faced the Mets on August 6th and gave up an uncharacteristic four runs, two of them earned, over six innings. He still owns a solid 3.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 14 career outings against New York. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -135 | 9-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays got back on track with a 6-1 win over the Orioles yesterday while the Yankees snapped their losing streak in thrilling walk-off fashion in extra innings against the Rays. Here, I look for the Yanks to keep it going in the opener of this four-game series in the Bronx. Jose Berrios will get the call for the Blue Jays. He's been a big disappointment at the front of the Toronto rotation this year, posting a 5.07 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.61 runs per nine innings. This doesn't appear to be an ideal 'get right' spot for the right-hander as the Yankees have already seen him twice this season, knocking him around for eight earned runs on 11 hits over 10 1/3 innings. For his career, Berrios owns a 5.05 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts against New York. Frankie Montas continues to search for his first quality outing in Yankee pinstripes. I'm confident it's coming. For the season, Montas has recorded a 3.53 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while holding the opposition to 4.15 runs per nine innings. He's allowed 2.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Berrios. Note that Montas did face the Blue Jays once previously in his career, allowing three earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 victory as a member of the A's last season. The Yankees boast one of baseball's elite bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Jays 'pen has been solid lately as well, I believe we have enough of a starting pitching edge that the later innings 'wash' won't play a factor. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Astros -124 v. White Sox | 21-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Astros got back at the White Sox with a 3-2 victory last night and I look for them to get off to another solid start in Thursday afternoon's series-finale. Luis Garcia gets the start for Houston. He's been good but certainly not great as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Astros this season, checking in with a 3.93 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing 4.41 runs per nine innings. I do like the fact that he enters this start on a full five days' rest - that matters as we near the later stages of the regular season. Chicago will hand the ball to Lucas Giolito who will be starting on just four days' rest after matching a season-high working seven innings in his most recent outing. It's been a trying campaign for the right-hander as he has posted a 4.10 FIP and 1.49 WHIP, yielding 5.24 runs per nine innings. Note that Giolito allows 2.5 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings this season compared to his counterpart on Thursday, Garcia. The Astros saw Giolito back in mid-June, chasing him after five innings but not before scoring eight earned runs. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 8.27 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over the last seven games and one that has been significantly worse on the road compared to at home this season. Take Houston first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Save for Tuesday's extra innings affair (even that game totalled only nine runs), this has been a low-scoring series. I anticipate more of the same in Thursday's series-finale. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Dodgers, apparently no worse for wear after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in an outing that was cut short against the Royals last weekend. The left-hander has been terrific for the Dodgers this season, posting a 2.18 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.61 runs per nine innings. Not a lot has been asked of Heaney as he generally works only 4-5 innings per start but that's fine for our purposes as the Dodgers bullpen behind him is terrific, having logged a 2.70 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Also keep in mind, the Brewers have struggled against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging only 3.6 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg). Corbin Burnes will counter for Milwaukee. He's having another fine campagn, recording a 3.05 FIP and 0.92 WHIP while yielding just 2.64 runs per nine innings. While Corbin has struggled in two previous outings against the Dodgers over the course of his career, both of those came in Los Angeles (with one of them coming all the way back in 2019) and he's yet to face them this season. Note that Burnes owns a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home this season and a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in daytime starts. The Brewers bullpen has actually been virtually on par with that of the Dodgers lately, sporting a collective 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-18-22 | A's v. Rangers -175 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas first five innings over Oakland at 2:05 pm et on Thursday. The A's have taken the last two games in this series (we won with Oakland +1.5 on Tuesday and the 'over' last night) but I look for the Rangers to answer back, at least early on in Thursday's series-finale. Zach Logue will get another turn in the rotation for the A's. He's struggled in his rookie campaign, posting a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while giving up just north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. To make matters worse, he'll be facing a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season (averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to its season scoring average of 4.4 rpg) and will be seeing him for the second time after tagging him for seven hits and four earned runs including two home runs in just 2 1/3 innings back in late May. Note that Logue hasn't just struggled at the big league level this season as he also recorded a 6.29 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 14 starts at AAA. He's in the A's rotation out of necessity only right now. Texas will counter with Dane Dunning. While he hasn't had as good of a season as he did last year, he's still been serviceable, recording a 4.10 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 4.35 runs per nine innings. He gives up 1.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with Logue this season. While Dunning didn't have his best stuff in his lone previous start against the A's this season, he still kept his team in the game, allowing just two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a start in Oakland back in late May. With the two bullpens virtually a wash in terms of recent form and overall away/home numbers this season, we'll look to isolate A's starter Logue and back the Rangers in the first five innings only in this one. Take Texas first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-17-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. While we’re dealing with small sample sizes to be sure, both of Wednesday’s starters, Adam Oller of the A’s and Cole Ragans of the Rangers have struggled mightily at times this season. I’m expecting plenty of offense as they match up on Wednesday evening. Oller owns a 6.86 FIP and 1.78 WHIP in 48 1/3 innings of work this season, yielding a whopping 7.82 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will be seeing him for the second time after scoring five earned runs, including two home runs, off of him over five innings back in late April. Ragans has only pitched 9 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, posting a 7.29 FIP and 1.71 WHIP while getting tagged for 5.79 runs per nine innings. Most concerning is the fact that Ragans has issued seven walks while striking out only four since joining the Rangers rotation earlier this month. While both bullpens have been solid lately, neither is strong enough to keep us off the full game ‘over’ in this one. Between the two teams, they’ve combined to blow 34 saves this season (entering last night’s action) so the potential is there for late runs on the board, should we need them. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Mets -142 v. Braves | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. Credit Braves’ recent acquisition Jake Odorizzi as he’s actually pitched reasonably well this season, splitting time between Houston and Atlanta. However, his numbers don’t hold a candle to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, Max Scherzer of the Mets. Scherzer checks in with a 2.40 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.1 runs per nine innings. He’s allowed 1.9 fewer hits and 1.3 fewer walks while striking out 4.2 more batters per nine innings in comparison with Odorizzi this season. He’s already baffled the Braves twice this season, allowing only one earned run while striking out 20 across 14 innings in two starts. We’ll play the first five innings only in this one as Atlanta does have an edge in terms of the two bullpens. The Braves relief corps entered last night’s action sporting a collective 1.73 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown over the last seven games. We’ll look to avoid that potential poor later innings matchup here. Take New York first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Red Sox v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair between the Red Sox and Pirates at PNC Park. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will take the ball for the Red Sox. He continues to labor through the 2022 campaign, sporting a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Hill is a disappointing Red Sox bullpen that entered last night’s series-opener having posted a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road it has converted only 13 saves while blowing 12, again prior to last night’s action. The Pirates will turn to Roansy Contreras on Wednesday. He’s had an up-and-down season, with more downs than ups. Contreras has posted a 4.89 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP, yielding 4.32 runs per nine innings. He’ll be making his first big league start since July 7th and hasn’t necessarily dominated at the minor league level, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at AAA and still struggling with his command, allowing 1.0 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings (he’s given up 1.6 home runs and 4.0 walks per nine innings in 12 MLB appearances this season). Like the Red Sox ‘pen, the Pirates relief corps has struggled, particularly of late as it has recorded a collective 6.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering last night’s action. For the season, the Buccos ‘pen owns a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto first five innings over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Phillies -162 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -162 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the visiting Phillies in the finale of this three-game series in Cincinnati on Wednesday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez, who is coming off one of his best outings of the season as he held the Mets to just one earned run over seven innings in a 2-1 victory in New York last week. Suarez has lowered his FIP to 3.81 and his WHIP to 1.32 and is allowing just north of 4.1 runs per nine innings. Behind Suarez is a Phillies bullpen that has been among the best in baseball lately, entering last night’s action with a sparkling 0.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Nick Lodolo will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds. He’s gone through plenty of growing pains here in 2022, posting a 4.42 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while yielding 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that Lodolo allows 1.8 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Suarez this season. The Reds bullpen has had a tough time all season, recording a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown here at home, entering last night’s action. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. This one falls just on the edge of our play range in terms of price. With that being said, a strong case can certainly be made for the D'Backs to be favored in this game and I think we're fortunate to have the opportunity to grab an insurance run (which we often like to have when backing Arizona - note that nine of its last 16 losses have come by a single run). Merill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs on Tuesday. He's actually been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for an extended stretch this season. Kelly sports a 3.16 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing just 3.08 runs per nine innings. The Giants will give the ball to Jake Junis. It's been a mixed bag for him since returning from injury last month. Junis owns a 3.63 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he allows 1.0 more hit and 0.5 more home runs per nine innings compared to Kelly. Entering last night's action, the D'Backs bullpen had recorded a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games while the Giants 'pen continued to struggled, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Tuesday's board as the Astros send Justin Verlander to the hill against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Verlander is having another incredible season, recording a 2.91 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while giving up only 2.38 runs per nine innings. He'll have a score to settle here after allowing seven runs, four of them earned, over just 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the White Sox this season back in June. Knowing the competitor that he is and given he's logged a 1.58 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 road outings this season, I'm expecting Verlander's best in this one. Dylan Cease is having a Cy Young Award-caliber year to be sure, checking in with a 2.75 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while yielding just 2.66 runs per nine innings. He's struggled against the Astros in the past but this will be his first shot at them this year and he has certainly been a different pitcher in 2022. Incredibly, you would have to go back 15 starts to find the last time Cease allowed more than a single earned run. The reason we're playing the first five innings only in this one should be obvious but it's worth noting that the two bullpens have struggled lately, with Houston's relief corps posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games and the White Sox 'pen recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Astros -118 v. White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We obviously don't want to make a habit of fading one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball in Dylan Cease of the White Sox, but in this case I'll make an exception as we're backing one of the best to every do it in Justin Verlander and an Astros team coming off a 4-2 loss in the opener of this series last night. We'll do so in the first five innings only as Houston's bullpen has been a mess lately, posting a collective 6.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games. Verlander has essentially had just two bad starts this season and one of them came against tonight's opponent, the White Sox back on June 18th. Needless to say he'll be eager to make amends here. Note that Verlander's other 'bad' outing this season came against the Mariners on May 27th. Since then, he's faced them three times and has generally made life miserable for them, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 26 in 21 1/2 innings (the Astros won all three games). Verlander checks in with a 2.91 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while allowing only 2.38 runs per nine innings this season. Cease has of course been lights out as well although he does give up 0.28 more runs and 2.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Verlander (I realize we're grasping at straws a bit when it comes to finding negatives in Cease's game). I'm confident the Astros can scratch together just enough offense against the White Sox right-hander early to hold the lead after five frames. Take Houston first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the bullpens virtually a wash in this matchup and the A's holding what I consider to be a significant starting pitching advantage, we'll back the visitors with an insurance run here. JP Sears was a key piece coming over to the A's from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade. He didn't disappoint in his A's debut last week, allowing just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings of work against the Angels. In 27 1/3 big league innings pitched this season, Sears has posted a 2.93 FIP and 0.81 WHIP while allowing just 2.3 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will send Kohei Arihara to the mound for his first start of the season. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at the AAA level this season and that's after recording an ugly 6.76 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.9 runs per nine innings with the Rangers last season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -154 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Braves in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mets on the run-line on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who will be out for revenge after giving up a whopping eight earned runs over just one inning against these same Braves two starts back. He bounced back nicely with a quality outing against the Reds last time out and I'm confident he can do a much better job against Atlanta this time around. Note that the last time he pitched here at Truist Park, he guided New York to a 3-1 victory last season. Walker enters this outing sporting a 3.61 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.51 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's contest, the Mets bullpen hadn't allowed a single earned run over its last seven games, posting a 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. New York's relief corps owns a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while converting 16 saves and blowing only six on the road this season (also entering last night's action). Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He checks in with a 4.14 FIP and 1.21 WHIP, allowing 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets will be getting their third look at Morton this season having already plated nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in their previous two games against him. Atlanta's bullpen has been terrific lately but has blown 11 saves (while converting 18) at home this season. Also note that the Braves relief corps has been a little more overworked than the Mets' lately, logging 27 1/3 innings over the last seven games, while New York's 'pen has been pressed into duty for less than 20 innings over the same stretch (entering this series). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Tigers v. Guardians OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Detroit and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in this same matchup (with the same two starting pitchers) last week in Detroit but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Rookie Garrett Hill got off to a fine start for the Tigers this season but has struggled lately with his FIP rising to 5.82 and his WHIP to 1.36. He checks in allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings and was fortunate to get himself out of trouble on numerous occasions over five innings of work against these same Guardians last time out. Interestingly, this will be Cleveland's third look at Hill this season (he's made only seven starts in total). The Guardians will counter with Zach Plesac. He sports a 4.27 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season and actually allows 0.9 more hits per nine innings compared to Hill. Opponents have reached Plesac for 4.94 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the fourth time this season. Their best effort against him came in his lone outing against them here in Cleveland back in July as he gave up five runs, two of them earned, over just 3 2/3 innings of work. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid a Guardians bullpen that is in excellent form having posted a collective 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). For its part, the Detroit 'pen has recorded a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season, also entering yesterday's double-header. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Cubs -155 v. Nationals | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen this price come down a bit since opening, likely due to some hesitancy from bettors with the Cubs having blown leads in losing their last two games. I'm confident they'll bounce back here, however. Justin Steele will get the start for Chicago. He pitched well in his most recent outing against these same Nationals last week, allowing two earned runs over six innings in an eventual 4-2 victory. Steele owns a solid 3.28 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing 4.51 runs per nine innings this season. That last number is somewhat concerning but it looks Cy Young-like compared to that of his opponent tonight, Patrick Corbin. Corbin continues to be sent out every five days out of necessity only. He sports a 4.96 FIP and 1.82 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.91 runs per nine innings this season. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he's logged 110 1/3 innings. Behind Corbin is a Nationals bullpen that held up alright last night but still owns a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last seven games. For its part, the Cubs 'pen has posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 6.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed just once in the Angels last six games. After missing with the 'over' in their series finale against the Twins yesterday (a 4-2 Los Angeles victory) we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Monday against Seattle. Newly-acquired Luis Castillo has been outstanding in two starts since joining the Mariners, allowing only three earned runs in 14 2/3 innings - even more impressive given those two starts came against the Yankees. For the season, Castillo owns a 3.17 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 2.98 runs per nine innings. Behind Castillo is a Mariners bullpen that entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 1.61 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted 17 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for the Angels on Monday. He's been even better than Castillo, posting a 2.45 FIP and 1.05 WHIP on the season. Opponents have reached Ohtani for just 2.84 runs per nine innings. Like the Mariners 'pen, the Angels relief corps has been outstanding lately, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). After giving up two runs in the first inning yesterday, Los Angeles tossed up eight consecutive shutout innings. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Dodgers -165 v. Brewers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers saw their long winning streak come to an end with a 3-0 blanking in Kansas City yesterday (we won with the first five innings 'under'). I look for them to get right back on track with a red hot Julio Urias taking the ball on Monday. You would have to go back 11 starts to find the last time the Dodgers dropped a game with Urias starting. They're also 5-1 in his six career outings against the Brewers. Milwaukee checks in just 17-18, averaging 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Of course, Urias has been terrific again this year, posting a 3.49 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. While his counterpart on Monday, Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, does own a superior FIP (2.40), he has given up 0.4 more hits, 1.1 more walks and 1.36 more runs per nine innings compared to Urias. Home runs allowed have been the issue for Urias this season but he hasn't allowed a single long ball over his last four starts. The Dodgers bullpen behind Urias has been rock solid away from home this season, recording a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing only two (entering yesterday's action). Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Mets v. Braves -138 | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta first five innings over New York at 7:20 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Braves in the first five innings in Monday's divisional showdown against the Mets, doing so as they have no considerable advantage with their bullpen in the later innings. I do think Atlanta has a significant edge early with standout rookie Spencer Strider taking the ball against veteran Carlos Carrasco of New York. Strider has posted a 1.97 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, yielding just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. He'll certainly be up for this start after he turned in one of his worst outings of the season against these same Mets last time out. That start came on the road. Here at home, Strider has been lights out, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts this season. Carrasco owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.28 WHIP on the campaign. Note that he has allowed 3.2 more hits and 0.4 more home runs per nine innings compared to Strider this season. The last time the Braves faced Carrasco here at home they reached him for five earned runs over five innings last October. Take Atlanta first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided defeats on Sunday. I look for both offenses to respond with favorable results on Monday, leading to a high-scoring affair in Toronto. While the Orioles stable of young arms has performed well this season, tonight's starter, Kyle Bradish, has struggled. He checks in sporting a 5.16 FIP and 1.62 WHIP while allowing just shy of 6.6 runs per nine innings. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he has logged more than 60 big league innings this season. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be seeing him for the third time this season and the second time in less than a week. They've fared well against him, scoring eight earned runs on 14 hits over 10 1/3 innings previously. While the O's bullpen has been solid for much of the season, it took a hit due to pre-trade deadline dealing and entered yesterday's action with a 4.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yusei Kikuchi experiment hasn't worked out in Toronto this season. He's struggled since joining the club from Seattle, recording a 5.87 FIP and 1.49 WHIP here in 2022. Opponents have reached the left-hander for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the O's have been slightly better offensively against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg. They've tagged Kikuchi for nine earned runs in nine innings in two previous looks at him this season. Meanwhile, the Jays 'pen has been overworked, entering yesterday's contest having logged 28 innings over the last seven games, sporting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Cubs -134 v. Nationals | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Cubs yesterday as they couldn't complete the four-game sweep of the Reds but I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Monday as they hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, who finds himself in a quick 'revenge' spot against the Nationals. Stroman's last start didn't go particularly well and it came against these same Nationals last week. He allowed four earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 loss. He's still having a fine season, having recorded a 3.98 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. His 4.54 runs per nine innings allowed does leave a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can navigate a Nationals lineup that has averaged just 3.8 runs per game this season (better than he did last time out anyway). Interestingly, Stroman has been much sharper away from home this season, posting a 2.26 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine outings. Josiah Gray will counter for Washington. He sports a 5.60 FIP and 1.30 WHIP while yielding just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Like Stroman, he has struggled pitching at home, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 10 starts at Nationals Park. The Washington bullpen behind Gray has been awful lately, and for much of the campaign. The Nats relief corps entered yesterday's contest with a 5.83 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Phillies -170 v. Reds | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up nicely as a bounce-back spot for the Phillies off consecutive losses against the Mets over the weekend. We've been betting against Reds starter Mike Minor all season long and we won't hesitate to do so again here. Minor has had a disastrous campaign as he nears the likely end of his big league career. He checks in with a 6.75 FIP and 1.57 WHIP, allowing north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the Phillies have wore out left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7 rpg). Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP at home this season, converting only seven saves while blowing eight. Noah Syndergaard will take the ball for the visiting Phillies. He's made two starts since joining the club prior to the trade deadline and both resulted in team victories. That's despite the fact that he didn't really have his best stuff in either outing. For the season, Syndergaard has posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing 4.15 runs per nine innings - obviously vastly superior numbers to those of Minor. The Phillies bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Philadelphia (9*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Padres v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Monday's board as the Padres send Joe Musgrove to the hill against Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. We'll look to avoid the inconsistent bullpens here and back the first five innings 'under' only. Musgrove labored through a four-start stretch before settling down to allow just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants last time out. On the season, he owns a 3.35 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. In Musgrove's lone previous outing against the Marlins this season he gave up just two earned runs on five hits while striking out eight and walking just one over seven frames back in early May. There's Sandy Alcantara and then there's everyone else when it comes to the Marlins pitching staff this year. He's been terrific, recording a 2.85 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just 2.39 runs per nine innings. With that being said, he'll be looking to avenge one of his worst starts of the season which came against the Padres in May. In that outing he allowed two earned runs on five hits and lasted just 4 2/3 innings. That game still totalled just five runs. The last time we saw Alcantara pitch here at home he tossed a complete game shutout against the Reds on August 3rd. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. While this series has gotten off to a low-scoring start I look for Sunday's series finale to provide plenty of offensive fireworks. Chris Archer gets the start for the Twins. He checks in with a 4.58 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings. Heading into last night's game, the Twins bullpen was in awful form, posting a collective 5.93 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Minnesota's relief corps has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight. Tucker Davidson will take the ball for the hometown Angels. He's struggled in limited work this season, recording a 5.60 FIP and 2.02 WHIP while giving up north of 7.9 runs per nine innings (small sample size of 19 1/3 innings, I know). Of course, the Los Angeles bullpen is rarely all that reliable, checking in with a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home this season, converting 15 saves and blowing eight. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring start to this A.L. West matchup on Sunday afternoon. Cole Irvin will take the ball for the visiting A's. He's quietly turned his season around, lowering his FIP to 3.84 and his WHIP to 1.03 while giving up just 3.21 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in supporting the A's bullpen here, however, as they've struggled mightily to keep runs off the board lately (5.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP L7 games entering last night's action). We'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. While his command hasn't always been there this season, he's still managed to record a solid 3.43 FIP and 1.05 WHIP, yielding just 3.14 runs per nine innings. In his lone career home start against the A's, Javier tossed five shutout innings in April 2021. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Dodgers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Dodgers on the run-line in each of the last two nights but I won't hesitate to go a different direction and back the first five innings 'under' as this interleague series wraps up on Sunday. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for the visiting Dodgers. He probably doesn't get the attention he deserves in a loaded Dodgers starting rotation. Anderson checks in with a 3.33 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart on Sunday will be Brady Singer. While he pitches for a bad team, he's held up well, recording a 3.66 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season. Singer is giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we want no part of a Royals bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a 7.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Cubs -130 v. Reds | 5-8 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The series sweep is set up on a tee for the Cubs on Sunday as they hand the ball to Keegan Thompson against Justin Dunn of the Reds. Thompson is quietly having a fine campaign for the Cubs, recording a 4.04 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing 3.91 runs per nine innings. Behind Thompson is a Chicago bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games. That relief corps hasn't been overworked either, logging just 23 2/3 innings over those previous seven contests. If you've followed my plays regularly over the last year-plus you know that we like to go against Reds starter (and former Mariner) Justin Dunn. He's only worked 4 2/3 innings at the big league level this season, posting a 6.98 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. Note that he struggled at the minor league level before getting the call-up, recording a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Reds bullpen has been awful at home this season, entering last night's contest with a 5.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, converting only seven saves while blowing eight. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Orioles v. Rays -152 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay first five innings over Baltimore at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. With no real advantage with the Rays bullpen over the Orioles' in the later innings in this one, we'll back Tampa Bay in the first five frames only as it sends Drew Rasmussen to the hill against Jordan Lyles of the O's. Lyles has been one of the weak links in an otherwise solid Baltimore starting rotation this season. He checks in with a 4.43 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 4.7 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having already reached him for 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Rasmussen is an undervalued commodity in the Rays rotation. He sports a 3.54 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.45 runs per nine innings. The Rays are a perfect 3-0 in his three previous starts against Baltimore as the right-hander has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in those three contests. Take Tampa Bay first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Twins snapped a three-game skid, taking the opener of this series with relative ease last night. I look for the Angels to give them all they can handle on Saturday, however. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's struggled lately and let's face it, he's struggled for the majority of his big league career. Bundy checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.30 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Also note that the Twins bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted just eight saves while also blowing eight on the road this season. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.54 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Twins are just 17-15 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game (compared to their 4.5 runs per game season scoring average). The Angels bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. With both bullpens entering this series in solid current form, we'll look to play 'over' the first five innings only in this one as the starting pitching matchup should favor the hitters. Marco Gonzales will get the start for the visiting Mariners. He checks in with a 5.12 FIP and 1.39 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The division-rival Rangers have already seen him four times this season and have had considerable success at the dish against him, plating 12 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Like the Rangers against Gonzales, the Mariners have seen plenty of Dunning this season. This will be their fourth game against the right-hander, having previously scored seven earned runs off of him in 16 innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens entering this series pitching well (SEA - 2.19 ERA/0.61 WHIP L7 games, TEX - 1.71 ERA/0.95 WHIP L7 games) so we'll only call for a high-scoring start to Saturday's contest. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Phillies v. Mets -184 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies took the opener of this series last night but I look for the Mets to answer back with their ace Jacob deGrom on the hill on Saturday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. He's having a terrific season in his own right but he's not on the same level as deGrom. Philadelphia has won just five of his 11 road starts this season. The Phillies bullpen, while solid lately, has posted a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). deGrom has made a triumphant return to the Mets rotation, posting a 1.25 FIP and 0.47 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. You would have to go back nine deGrom home starts to find the last time the Mets lost a game with him on the mound here at Citi Field. Included in that stretch was a victory over these same Phillies last June. While the Mets bullpen ultimately allowed the winning run in extra innings last night, it did enter that contest with a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home this season. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the Tigers in the first five innings on Saturday as I do feel they have an advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup. Matt Manning will get the start for Detroit. He's logged only 20 innings so far this season but has made the most of them, recording a 4.27 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing only 2.25 runs per nine innings. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rays but the Tigers bullpen couldn't hold up in an eventual loss. That's been the story a lot lately as the Detroit 'pen has been downright awful and we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here. Lucas Giolito has been high on our fade list all season long and we won't reverse course here. Giolito checks in with a 4.28 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing 5.25 runs per nine innings. The Tigers have already seen him twice this season, winning both of those games. They most recently plated five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against Giolito right here in Chicago back on July 8th. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lopsided result in favor of the Dodgers on Saturday in Kansas City as they send Andrew Heaney to the hill against Brad Keller of the Royals. Heaney has been solid since returning from injury, posting a 2.34 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.25 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Heaney is an elite Dodgers bullpen that brought terrific form into this series having recorded a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games. Brad Keller has endured another trying season for the Royals, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while giving up 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that the Dodgers are 53-21 and average 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. The Kansas City bullpen has struggled for much of the season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 10:15 pm et on Friday. As we still don’t trust the Giants bullpen, we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with All-Star Carlos Rodon taking the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates. Rodon enters Friday’s start sporting a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. He absolutely baffled the Pirates in a start against them earlier this season, tossing eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Bryse Wilson is one of the weakest links in the Pirates rotation and that’s saying something. He has recorded a 5.06 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season, yielding a whopping 6.82 runs per nine innings. There’s no real advantage for the Giants in the later innings of this one as their bullpen continues to under-achieve, having posted a collective 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention converting only 10 saves at home this season (four blown). Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-12-22 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:10 pm et on Friday. There’s quite simply no comparison between these two teams which lie at opposite ends of the A.L. West spectrum this season. The A’s will hand the ball to struggling rookie Adam Oller on Friday. He checks in with a 7.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP while allowing just north of 8.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be Luis Garcia of the Astros. While not an elite starter by any stretch, he’s been more than serviceable in the Astros starting rotation, posting a 4.03 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing 4.33 runs per nine innings this season. Houston’s bullpen has been lights out at home all season, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting 15 saves and blowing only five (entering yesterday’s action). Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Royals are coming off a stunning series sweep of the division rival White Sox, I expect Friday’s result to be much more straightforward as they host the Dodgers. Los Angeles will send All-Star Tony Gonsolin to the mound for the series opener. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.38 runs per nine innings. Behind Gonsolin is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games. The Royals will hand the ball to left-hander Daniel Lynch. He owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The Kansas City bullpen did its best to cough up yesterday’s game against the White Sox but ultimately held on to finish the series sweep. Note that the Royals ‘pen owned a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season, entering yesterday’s contest. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Phillies v. Mets -185 | 2-1 | Loss | -185 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We’ll back the Mets in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with Max Scherzer taking the ball against Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. Scherzer is obviously enjoying another Cy Young Award-worthy season having recorded a 2.45 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while giving up only 2.16 runs per nine innings. Note that Scherzer will be looking for revenge after giving up three earned runs on 10 hits over six innings the last time he faced the Phillies back on May 8th. Ranger Suarez is having a fine season but his numbers certainly don’t compare to those of Scherzer. He has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Scherzer this season. He’s also giving up nearly twice the runs at 4.31 per nine innings. The reason we’re playing the first five innings only here is that the Phillies bullpen has actually been better than the Mets’ over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. Take New York first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up exceptionally well for the Padres as they head to Washington to face the lowly Nationals on Friday. Mike Clevinger will take the ball for San Diego. He’s having a fine season having posted a 3.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 3.74 runs per nine innings. Behind Clevinger is a Padres bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Cory Abbott was awful in limited work for the Cubs last season and has been equally bad in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals this year. Abbott checks in with an 8.88 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing 5.68 runs per nine innings. The Nationals bullpen has struggled for much of the campaign and has certainly had a tough time lately, posting a collective 6.29 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -174 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. The fact that we're still able to back Merrill Kelly at a sub -200 price against an opponent like the Pirates tells me he's still being undervalued. Here, rather than support the D'Backs for the full game, we'll get behind them in the first five innings only as there's no real advantage with their bullpen in the later innings. JT Brubaker will get the call for the visiting Pirates. He owns a 3.77 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 5.23 runs per nine innings this season. Note that Arizona will be seeing him for the second time this season after tagging him for five earned runs in four innings back in early June. Brubaker has allowed 2.6 more hits, 0.4 more home runs and 1.0 more walks per nine innings in comparison with Kelly. The D'Backs emerging ace has recorded a 3.18 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while yielding only 2.99 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He's faced the Buccos twice in his career, allowing four earned runs over 12 innings of work. Take Arizona first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-11-22 | White Sox -170 v. Royals | 3-5 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the White Sox last night as they squandered a 3-1 lead in an eventual 8-3 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again on Thursday, however, as they send their ace Dylan Cease to the hill. Cease is obviously having a career year, having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing only 2.71 runs per nine innings. While the White Sox bullpen coughed up the game last night, it still owns a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road this season, converting 18 saves and blowing only seven. Veteran Zack Greinke will counter for the Royals. He continues to get knocked around having recorded a 4.42 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The Royals bullpen behind him owns a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I look for a different story to unfold in Thursday afternoon's series finale in Detroit. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He owns a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the third time this season after knocking him around for four earned runs on 12 hits over just 9 2/3 innings in their first two looks. Rookie Garrett Hill will counter for Detroit. He checks in with a 5.51 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.12 runs per nine frames. The Guardians have already seen Hill once and while they didn't fare all that well in that contest (just one earned run on two hits over six innings), I look for improvement here. The Guardians bullpen has been fine lately but the Tigers relief corps has been awful, posting a collective 7.66 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. It's not as if Cleveland's 'pen has been untouchable on the road as it has recorded a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Cardinals -145 v. Rockies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We were concerned about a potential letdown from the Cardinals last night but backed them anyway and paid the price as they had their doors blown off by the Rockies. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the visiting Cards again here. Jose Quintana will take the ball for St. Louis. He's enjoyed a terrific bounce-back season, posting a 3.27 FIP and 1.23 WHIP while allowing 3.63 runs per nine innings. Behind Quintana is a Cards bullpen that despite last night's poor performance still owns a 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.23 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just over 4.9 runs per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen behind him has struggled mightily of late, posting a 7.03 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | White Sox -130 v. Royals | 3-8 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll continue to fade Royals starter Kris Bubic as he takes the ball against Johnny Cueto of the White Sox on Wednesday. Cueto has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a solid 4.02 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up just under 3.10 runs per nine innings. Behind the veteran right-hander is a White Sox bullpen that is in excellent form, having posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road this season, the White Sox 'pen owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only seven blown. Bubic sports a 4.92 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing north of 5.8 runs per nine frames. Keep in mind, the White Sox average 0.3 runs per game above their season scoring average when facing left-handed starting pitching this season. The Royals bullpen has logged a 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season and a 3.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago (9*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros added to the Rangers misery with a 7-5 victory last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday. Texas will hand the ball to Glenn Otto. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Otto checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. He's given up 2.1 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 2.9 more walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on this night, Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander is having another terrific campaign, having posted a 2.98 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. He's an A.L. Cy Young Award candidate once again to be sure. Behind Verlander is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately and for much of the season, particularly at home. Over the last seven games, the Astros 'pen has recorded a collective 0.48 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Braves -138 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves got past the fading Red Sox last night and while I anticipate a similar result on Wednesday, rather than back them in the full game, we'll support them in the first five innings only here. Kyle Wright will take the ball for Atlanta. He's quietly having a terrific season, perhaps overshadowed by the exploits of Max Fried and standout rookie Spencer Strider. Wright checks in with a 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.4 runs per nine innings. He'll be looking for revenge here after giving up six earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings in a start against Boston back in May. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for that poor outing based on his impressive performance overall this season. My concern with the Braves is their bullpen but we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. The Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 5.18 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games. Boston will give Nick Pivetta the start in this one. He owns a 4.16 FIP and 1.33 WHIP this season, yielding just over 4.5 runs per nine innings. Thanks to his previous days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East, the Braves will be seeing Pivetta for the sixth time since the start of 2019. He's given up at least four earned runs in four of his previous five starts against them. Take Atlanta first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance run with the Marlins here, the fact that we're able to get the +1.5 at all is a steal in my opinion. The case can certainly be made for the Marlins to be favored in this matchup but I will grab that insurance run as they've had a knack for finding ways to lose games lately. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He is of course one of the top contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award this season having posted a 2.86 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just 2.27 runs per nine innings. After a shaky outing in Pittsburgh, Alcantara bounced back in a big way last time out, tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds (we won with the Marlins in that game). Noah Syndergaard will counter for the Phillies. He's having a fine season but certainly doesn't boast the same sort of numbers as Alcantara. The veteran right-hander sports a 3.85 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while giving up 4.24 runs per nine innings. Behind Syndergaard is a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Marlins 'pen has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Nationals v. Cubs -165 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals evened this series at a game apiece with a 6-5 victory last night at Wrigley Field but I look for the Cubs to answer right back on Wednesday. Josiah Gray will take the ball for Washington. He checks in with a 5.72 FIP and 1.31 WHIP this season while allowing just north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Behind Gray is an awful Nats bullpen that has posted a collective 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games and has been generally awful on the road this season (5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP). Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. The fact that he's a left-hander already gives him a leg up on the Nats, noting that they've gone a woeful 11-25 against southpaw starters this season. Steele enters this start with a 3.34 FIP and 1.41 WHIP having allowed just over 4.6 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has been a bright spot overall this season and checks in with a 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Angels -175 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The case could certainly be made for the Angels to be priced north of -200 in this contest and we may very well see the price get there by the time first pitch rolls around. Shohei Ohtani will get the start for the Angels. While he hasn't received the same amount of hype as he did a year ago when he did a little more with the bat, he's having another terrific campaign on the mound, posting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers - a 2.42 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP while allowing just 3.00 runs per nine innings. Behind Ohtani is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP away from home this season. James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's logged a disappointing 5.20 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while giving up north of 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. While the A's bullpen hasn't been bad lately, it certainly hasn't posted the same type of numbers as that of the Angels with a 4.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, Oakland relievers have combined to record a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and six blown. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Cardinals -160 v. Rockies | 5-16 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. While the Cardinals could certainly be ripe for a letdown off a sweep of the Yankees over the weekend, I believe their advantages on the mound are too strong to ignore in this particular matchup. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Mikolas is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Rockies will turn to Ryan Feltner, who continues to labor through the 2022 season. He sports a 4.51 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up 5.98 runs per nine innings. Perhaps even more problematic is the Rockies bullpen, which has logged an 8.15 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. While I realize the Reds don't have a wealth of starting pitching talent that's ready for the big league level right now, it's still hard to believe that they continue to trot out veteran left-hander Mike Minor every five days. To say that Minor has struggled this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.57 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. We can no longer blame it on a small sample size either as he's logged 11 starts covering a span of 56 2/3 innings. The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. He's pitched well lately, lowering his FIP to 3.44 and his WHIP to 1.28 and has given up just north of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Carrasco allows 1.0 fewer hits, 1.6 fewer walks and perhaps most importantly 1.6 fewer home runs per nine innings when compared to Minor this season. The reason we're laying the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only again tonight (we won with the same play last night) is the fact that their bullpen has been unsteady lately, recording a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds 'pen has posted a terrific 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring start to this N.L. East showdown on Tuesday as the Marlins send an underrated Braxton Garrett to the hill against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. Garrett enters Tuesday's start having lowered his FIP to 3.04 and his WHIP to 1.16, yielding just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings this season. He's struck out 11 batters twice in his last four starts, racking up 37 K's over his last four outings, covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. Wheeler has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the Phillies again this season, recording a 2.85 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing under 3.0 runs per nine innings. He's worked exactly seven innings and given up two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. The problem with playing the full game 'under' here isn't either starter, it's the bullpens. Miami's relief corps has already blown 13 saves away from home this season while Philadelphia's 'pen checks in with a 7.23 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Blue Jays -150 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up exceptionally well as a bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays after last night's 7-4 loss here at Camden Yards. Alek Manoah will take the ball for Toronto. He's having a fine sophomore campaign having posted a 3.42 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while yielding just 2.8 runs per nine innings. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, but last time out that was still enough to guide the Jays to a 9-3 victory in Minnesota. The last time Manoah faced the Orioles he tossed six shutout innings back on June 13th. Prior to that he gave up just one earned run over seven frames against them last October. Kyle Bradish will counter for Baltimore. While the O's have had many young arms rise to the occasion this season, Bradish hasn't been one of them. He owns an ugly 5.15 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.71 runs per nine innings. The Jays saw him in June and tagged him for five earned runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this game so we'll confidently back the Jays based on their considerable starting pitching advantage. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
08-08-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We have enough of a starting pitching advantage to support the D'Backs at an admittedly steep price point in the first five innings in Monday's series-opener against the Pirates. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Tyler Beede. He's logged 41 2/3 innings this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 4.36 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while giving up 4.1 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Monday, Zac Gallen, he has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings. Gallen is having a fine season having posted a 3.68 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.64 runs per nine innings. The only reason I hesitate to back the D'Backs for the full game here is the fact that the Pirates bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs meanwhile have converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-08-22 | Nationals v. Cubs -175 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll gladly back the Cubs at a sub -200 price in this matchup as they host the reeling Nationals on Monday. Anibal Sanchez's return to the Nationals rotation hasn't gone well as he checks in with a 7.02 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing a whopping 8.1 runs per nine innings, albeit with a small sample size of just 20 innings. Behind Sanchez is a Nats bullpen that has struggled away from home all season and sports a 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last seven contests. Cubs starter Keegan Thompson has been an underrated commodity all season in my opinion, relatively speaking at least. He enters Monday's start with a 3.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP, giving up an average of 4.06 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up well overall this season and checks in with a 3.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets are rolling right now and there's little reason to expect the Reds to serve as anything more than a speedbump on Monday. With that being said, New York's bullpen has struggled to the tune of an ERA north of 6.00 and a 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games and I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up so we'll back it in the first five innings only here. Cincinnati will give Justin Dunn his first big league start of the season. He's struggled at the minor league level here in 2022, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. Of course, he hasn't found much success at the big league level in his career either, most recently posting a 4.74 FIP and 1.31 WHIP with the Mariners last season. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings against Washington. On the season he has recorded a 3.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-07-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While these two teams are obviously loaded with offensive talent, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Sunday night’s series-finale in Los Angeles. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Padres. He’s looking to bounce back from a shaky outing against a Rockies team that has seemingly had his number in recent years. Note that Darvish still owns a terrific 3.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be left-hander Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers. Anderson should be pleased to be facing a Padres club that has had a tougher time producing runs against southpaw starters this season, averaging just 4.2 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.4 rpg (entering last night’s action). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.36 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while limiting opponents to just 3.04 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been outstanding lately with the Padres relief corps entering last night’s action with a 1.09 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven games and the Dodgers logging an even better 0.98 ERA and 0.54 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-07-22 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This has the makings of one of the best starting pitching matchups on Sunday’s board as the Braves send impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill against Jacob deGrom of the Mets. Strider has turned heads in his rookie campaign, posting a 1.97 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing only 3.0 runs per nine innings. He faced the Mets back in mid-July and allowed just one earned run over 4 2/3 innings in a 4-1 Braves victory. Jacob deGrom will be making his second start back from injury. He didn’t miss a beat in his first start back, allowing just one earned run on three hits while striking out six and not walking a batter in five innings against the Nationals. While he does face a tougher opponent here, I’m confident he’ll be up for the challenge. As I noted in my analysis of last night’s play on the ‘under’ in this matchup, both bullpens headed into the weekend in fine form. Even off yesterday’s double-header, I’m confident they’ll both hold up well on Sunday. Take the under. |
|||||||
08-07-22 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. I’m confident we’ll see the hitters feast on Sunday’s subpar starting pitchers as this series wraps on a high-scoring note in Texas. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is in the midst of a massively disappointing campaign having posted a 4.34 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the bullpen behind him has been terrific lately, I’m not convinced it will be enough to make up for Giolito’s shortcomings here. Meanwhile, Rangers right-hander Spencer Howard has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He owns a 6.90 FIP and 1.63 WHIP while giving up a whopping 7.08 runs per nine innings. The Texas bullpen hasn’t been much better lately, logging a collective 5.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). |