Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday. UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points. Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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01-07-24 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Cardinals v. Eagles -12 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | 33-19 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Seahawks low-scoring victory over the Eagles on Monday Night Football still fresh in the minds of most bettors, we're working with a relatively low total in Sunday's matchup in Tennessee. The Seahawks will turn back to Geno Smith at quarterback for this contest. There's reason to believe Seattle's offense can thrive with a run-first mindset against a Titans defense that quite simply has no answers against the run right now, allowing 158 and 148 rushing yards in their last two games. Keeping the Titans defense honest with Kenneth Walker at the ground attack should serve to open things up for a red hot D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks passing game. Speaking of turning back to veteran quarterbacks, the Titans will go back to Ryan Tannehill under center on Sunday. Much like the Seahawks against the Titans defense, Tennessee's ground game should roll against a very beatable Seattle run defense. Tennessee also catches a break with Seattle missing standout rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Titans last 63 home games after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 21-10 in Seattle's last 31 games following an upset win at home. Take the over (8*). |
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12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 59 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +3 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 82 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Rams nearly let the Commanders off the hook in Sunday's 28-20 win. They did hold on for the cover - their fourth straight ATS victory. Speaking of winning streaks, the Saints enter this game 'fat and happy' off consecutive blowout home wins over the Panthers and Giants. New York inexplicably elected to abandon its ground game against New Orleans' charmin-soft run defense and ultimately paid the price. I'm confident we'll see the Rams display a more balanced offensive attack here and wear down the New Orleans defense. There's little reason to have much faith in the Saints offense. They've run for 100+ yards just twice in their last six games and have topped 250 passing yards only once over that stretch (in a nine-point loss in Atlanta). Note that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series with none of those eight victories coming by fewer than six points. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Bills | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is undoubtedly a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendars since the start of the season - a long-awaited rematch with the Bills after dropping a 26-15 decision at home against Buffalo back in 2019. That most recent meeting between these two teams four years ago also featured the quarterback matchup of Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for 355 yards in a losing effort on that day. He's been MVP-worthy this season and while Dallas is likely to stumble at some point, I don't see it coming here. Buffalo is fresh off a massive road win over the Chiefs last Sunday. I expect the Bills success to be short-lived, however, noting they haven't strung together consecutive wins since a three-game winning streak from September 17th to October 1st. Note that Buffalo is a long-term 57-90 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in its last three games, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills OVER 49 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams delivered 'under' results last Sunday with the Bills upsetting the Chiefs on the road and the Cowboys laying waste to the Eagles at home. No offense is hotter than that of Dallas and QB Dak Prescott in particular. Ordinarily the Bills would pose a stiff defensive test but right now they're far too banged-up, missing key contributors at all three levels. Unless this game gets out of hand and the Cowboys take their foot off the gas, they should be able to get whatever they want on offense on Sunday. Buffalo's offense has been largely disappointing this season and while this is by no means a layup against a fierce Cowboys defense, I do think the Bills can find some success as they continue to build under the guidance of new coordinator Joe Brady. Brady has taken a different approach to the offense than we saw from Ken Dorsey. QB Josh Allen has been running more (effectively) and that's likely to continue against the Cowboys on Sunday. There's certainly a path for the Bills to stay competitive in this must-win game at home and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. It's worth noting that the Cowboys haven't posted consecutive 'under' results all season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Browns | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I generally anticipate games getting tighter and tighter at this time of year in Cleveland, where the December weather can be unpredictable and the Browns tend to go conservative in nature on offense. The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three games in a row ATS and an impressive 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine contests. That's in stark contrast to the Browns, who have dropped two of their last three games both SU and ATS and narrowly avoided coughing up a back-door cover against the Jags (in a game where Jacksonville didn't bring anything close to its 'A' game) last Sunday. Cleveland has inexplicably thrown the ball 89 times in the last two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I'm confident fading Flacco and the Browns offense here as the veteran QB is likely to be under duress all afternoon long against a much-improved Bears pass rush. Take Chicago (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-17-23 | Giants +5.5 v. Saints | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +6 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Vikings v. Raiders +3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -13.5 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | 6-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -6 | 21-18 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Packers | 19-27 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Packers caught the Lions flat-footed on Thanksgiving Day. It almost seemed as if Detroit thought Green Bay would simply roll over but that was far from the case. Here, I expect the Chiefs to be business-like in their approach once again, noting they're a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against non-conference opponents. As expected we heard plenty of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' whispers following their 21-17 home loss to the Eagles on MNF a couple of weeks ago. After a sluggish start in Las Vegas last Sunday, Kansas City eventually rolled to a two-touchdown victory. I expect plenty of carry-over from that flawless second half performance on Sunday night in Green Bay. This is another 'get right' spot against a Packers squad that just isn't as good as it looked in posting consecutive wins over the last two weeks. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4.5 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm not ready to write off the Browns just yet. Yes, they're coming off a disheartening loss to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday in a game that completely got away from them. I fully expect them to bounce back this week as they stay on the road to face the Rams, who are in a fairly obvious letdown spot off consecutive wins, including a blowout victory in Arizona last week. Are the Rams as good as they looked against the Cardinals? Probably not. Are the Browns as bad as they appeared against the Broncos? Certainly not. Keep in mind, prior to that loss in Denver, Cleveland had reeled off three consecutive wins SU and four in a row ATS. Yes, the Browns offense remains extremely limited but I think their defense can do a lot of the heavy lifting on Sunday, ultimately creating enough splash plays to give their offense some short fields to work with. Note that the Rams are a woeful 3-10 in their last 13 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against NFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-03-23 | Cardinals +7 v. Steelers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm just not ready to buy in to the Steelers being installed as considerable favorites against any opponent, let alone a Cardinals squad that's fresh off an embarrassing 37-14 rout at the hands of the division rival Rams last week. Arizona has now dropped back-to-back games but is still 3-2 ATS over its last five contests. The Steelers picked up a massive come-from-behind win in Cincinnati last Sunday but let's not start planning the parade just yet. That came against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. Note that Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when priced as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.6 points in that situation. I think the pacific time zone team playing an early game in the east angle is overblown and will grab all the points I can get with the Cards on Sunday. Take Arizona (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's all systems go for the Texans with breakout wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown expected to play on Sunday in this critical home matchup against the Broncos. We know what the Houston offense is capable of and it should push the Broncos defense much harder than either of their last two opponents did in the banged-up Vikings and Browns (both of those games were played in Denver). On the flip side, Denver's offense is no longer the plodding, methodical unit taking what it can get. The Broncos have reeled off five straight wins, scoring 24 or more points in three of their last four contests. Finally with at true RB1 in Javonte Williams and a rejuvenated WR duo in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos can give the Texans defense some problems in this game. Note that the 'over' is 29-14 in the Texans last 43 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 58 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, but those came against three of football's worst teams in the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. While the Seahawks are reeling off back-to-back losses, they're still 6-5 on the season and I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle on Thursday night. Seattle ran into an incredibly difficult matchup last week, playing with a number of key contributors banged-up on a short week against the red hot 49ers. I do think the extra couple of days off will help the Seahawks here. Note that Dallas is a long-term 17-38 ATS when coming off five or six ATS wins in its last seven games, as is the case here. It is also 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 28 points or more and 14-28 ATS in its last 42 contests following a home victory by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a long-term 59-35 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 43-22 ATS in their last 65 games after scoring 17 points or less in back-to-back games. Regardless what has separated these two NFC foes over the years, the Seahawks have stayed competitive. You would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2011, to find the last time Dallas defeated Seattle by more than seven points. The underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in this series. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Raiders | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. With whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs' swirling following Monday's loss to the Eagles - their second defeat in their last three games - we'll confidently back Kansas City to rebound against the division rival Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs ran into an elite opponent on Monday and paid the price for their mistakes in a 21-17 defeat. Yes, Kansas City's offense has sputtered but I see this as a 'get right' spot against the Raiders on Sunday. The Chiefs should be happy to see the black and silver on the other side of the field as they've scored 40, 32, 35, 41, 48, 30 and 31 points in the last seven meetings in this series. Las Vegas has performed admirably for rookie head coach Antonio Pierce but I'm also not sure that they've taken any opponent's best punch. They're likely to get just that here as Kansas City aims to rebound. Note that the Raiders are a woeful 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans +2 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jaguars rarely beat the Texans. They did blow out an awful Houston team last January but that marked their only victory in the last 11 meetings in this series. Earlier this season, the Texans went into Jacksonville and pounded the Jags 37-17. I see little reason why this ascending Texans squad can't deliver another win on Sunday. Despite failing to cover the spread in last week's 21-16 win over the Cardinals, I came away impressed by Houston once again. The Texans were in a prime letdown spot in that contest, fresh off a big upset win over the Bengals in Cincinnati the week previous. If it weren't for them shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers deep in Cardinals territory that result would have been far more lopsided. Jacksonville predictably rebounded from an embarrassing 34-3 rout at the hands of the 49ers the week previous by shredding the reeling Titans last Sunday. Note that the Jags are a long-term 10-27 ATS when coming off a game in which they outgained the opposition by 150 or more total yards, as is the case here. Take Houston (8*). |
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11-26-23 | Steelers -1 v. Bengals | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers dropped a heart-breaker in Cleveland last week and proceeded to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada in a move that was a long-time coming in the eyes of most. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to take full advantage of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad that enters this game reeling off back-to-back losses. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati by most accounts. It started the campaign with consecutive losses (and went 0-3-1 ATS in its first four games) with Joe Burrow hobbled with a calf injury. There was a brief resurgence once Burrow got healthy but now he's out for the season, leaving undrafted backup QB Jake Browning to run the offense. That spells trouble against a ferocious Steelers defense that has proven it can win games all on its own this season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator but won't put too much on the offense in this particular game as it is well-positioned to win ugly. Notably, the Steelers have owned this series in Cincinnati over the years and even when they've fielded weaker teams, they've still managed to split the last four meetings in this stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The 49ers are coming off consecutive 'under' results, a curious outcome considering they've gotten as healthy as they've been all season on offense over that stretch with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel among those returning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are fresh off a very low-scoring affair against the Rams as they dropped a 17-16 decision in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday with a higher-scoring result than most are expecting. The Niners should feast on a Seahawks defense that has been relatively soft against the run and in the middle of the field. Yes, Seattle boasts a tremendous cornerback duo in Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon but that hasn't stopped opponents from attacking it relentlessly through the air. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense is admittedly banged up. QB Geno Smith is expected to play but is certainly at risk of sitting at some point due to his shoulder injury. As strange as it sounds, I like Seattle's offense with backup QB Drew Lock at the helm - especially as an 'over' bettor as his presence generally leads to plenty of 'splash' plays, often to his team's detriment. Seahawks home games have been considerably higher-scoring (47.2 points per game) than their road affairs (39.6 ppg) this season and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | Commanders +12.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. The Cowboys enter this Thanksgiving Day divisional matchup with the Commanders riding a season-long two-game SU and ATS winning streak - that's right, season-long. As well as Dallas has played, consistency hasn't really been its calling card. The same goes for Washington and QB Sam Howell in particular. Howell is coming off a dreadful performance against the lowly Giants last Sunday, at home no less. The Commanders were upstaged by New York third-string QB Tommy DeVito, turning the football over a whopping six times in a 31-19 defeat. I do look for Washington to bounce back with a much sharper performance here, noting that it is a long-term 35-19 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of just 2.3 points in that situation. The Cowboys are a woeful 16-38 ATS in their last 54 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here, outscoring foes by only 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +3 v. Chiefs | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is a rematch of last February's Super Bowl - a game where the Eagles were favored but ultimately fell by a score of 38-35. Revenge is of course a factor on Monday, but it's not really what this play is all about. I simply feel the Eagles are the superior team and suspect we'll be hearing whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' throughout the week before they almost certainly 'get right' with a two-game road jaunt to Las Vegas and Green Bay. The bye week came at the right time for the Eagles as it gave QB Jalen Hurts a chance to rest his ailing knee. The Philadelphia defense also comes out of the bye arguably as healthy as it has been all season. The Eagles have been a curious study on defense this year as they've dared teams to beat them through the air, all but stamping out opposing ground games entirely. Here, the Chiefs will likely get their yardage through the air but I question how many drives they can end with 7's rather than 3's. It's worth noting that Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown just 17 touchdown passes through nine games this season - a far cry from the 41 he amassed last season. While Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's post-bye week success has been well-documented, I expect his spectacular record in that situation to be put to the test here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The revenge-minded Seahawks will look to clean things up after a shaky but victorious performance at home against the Commanders last week. You may remember the Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle back in Week 1. They're unlikely to catch Seattle flat-footed again here, however. The Rams have appeared in complete disarray during their current three-game SU and ATS slide and I'm not convinced their bye week will help them out in any way. The Seahawks would be well-advised to take advantage of this winnable matchup as their schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher with their next four games coming at home against the 49ers (on Thanksgiving), at the Cowboys, at the 49ers and at home against the Eagles. Take Seattle (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Cowboys v. Panthers +11 | 33-10 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. As difficult as it is to do, we'll fade the Cowboys off their 49-point explosion against the hapless Giants last week. The Panthers have just one victory both SU and ATS this season, that coming on October 29th against the upstart Texans. Note that while they're 1-3 at home this season, only one of those losses came by more than eight points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys check in 2-3 SU on the road this season with their lone win by more than three points coming way back in their Week 1 rout of the Giants. Note that Dallas is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. The Panthers are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games after scoring 17 points or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the setup for the underdog Cardinals here as they look rejuvenated with QB Kyler Murray back at the helm and catch the Texans in a massive letdown spot off last Sunday's stunning road win in Cincinnati. Arizona has proven to be a 'tough out' under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon this season and last week's offensive breakout led by Murray and fast-emerging TE Trey McBride has it brimming with confidence heading into this 'spoiler' spot against the upstart Texans. Houston has been involved in three straight barn-burners - all decided by three points or less. While this team may never' hit the wall in their first season under the guidance of head coach DeMeco Ryans, I do think they get tripped up at some point during this three-game homestand, noting they've yet to notch more than two victories in a row this season. Arizona checks in 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of seven points or less while Houston is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 contests following an upset victory. Take Arizona (10*). |
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11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -2 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since the Steelers stunned them in a 26-22 victory in Pittsburgh on September 18th. The Steelers gained only 255 total yards in that game but turnovers were the story. The Browns have now lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury but I don't expect them to fold the tent as a result. Everything is still in front of Cleveland after last week's upset win in Baltimore as it sits at 6-3 on the season in a crowded AFC North. This is a key spot with a sneaky-difficult two-game road jaunt to Denver and Los Angeles (vs. the Rams) on deck. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-16-23 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel the Bengals got caught overlooking the upstart Texans last Sunday, as many other teams have, or almost have this season. That loss snapped Cincinnati's four-game winning streak and put it in tough position here as it needs a win to avoid following three wins behind Baltimore in the AFC North standings. I do think the Bengals are one of those teams where the 'revenge' angle matters. We saw it in play to a certain extent a few weeks ago as Cincinnati went on the road and defeated San Francisco (after dropping a heartbreaker against the Niners at home in Joe Burrow's rookie season two years ago). Here, the Bengals will be looking to avenge an earlier 27-24 home loss against the Ravens, when Joe Burrow clearly wasn't right dealing with a calf injury earlier in the campaign. Baltimore also got caught overlooking its opponent last Sunday as it dropped a last-second decision against the division-rival Browns. While I don't believe the Ravens are as bad as they looked in the second half of that game, I also don't think they're as invincible as they appeared during their recent four-game winning streak. Home team has meant plenty in this series with the hosts winning four of the last five matchups. With that being said, you would have to go back three meetings here in Baltimore to find the last time the Ravens defeated the Bengals by more than two points. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bills have now dropped the cash in five straight games after last week's 24-18 setback in Cincinnati. While their offense bogged down in that game, their banged-up defense actually held up well against an elite offense. If there's one thing the Broncos have done well lately it's run the football but Buffalo has actually done a tremendous job of snuffing out opposing ground attacks over its last three contests, yielding just 3.6 yards per rush. Denver, on the other hand, has been torched on the ground, allowing a ridiculous 6.1 yards per rush on the road this season. If the Bills can get their ground game going early on Monday, it could be lights out in a hurry as Josh Allen draws a smash spot against the Broncos 'one-trick pony' pass defense here. Buffalo desperately needs to take advantage of this two-game homestand that also includes a date with the Jets next week before a brutal stretch that includes road games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Chargers and a home contest against the Cowboys. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I generally look to fade the Commanders off a win at the best of times but here we have their opponent in a smash spot as well as the Seahawks return home following a lifeless performance in Baltimore last week. Washington has relied heavily on dual-threat QB Sam Howell to keep its offense afloat without a ground game to speak of this season. That spells trouble in situations such as this, however, where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind. Seattle has struggled to lift the lid off its offense in recent weeks after showing so much promise early in the campaign (it scored exactly 37 points in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina in September). This looks like a potential breakout spot against a Washington squad that has already allowed 30+ points on five different occasions this season and certainly didn't get any better defensively but cutting ties with pass-rush specialists Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Note that Washington is averaging a woeful 14.5 points per game the last six times it has come off an upset win on the road, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-12-23 | Lions -3 v. Chargers | 41-38 | Push | 0 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers have taken full advantage of back-to-back favorable primetime matchups against the Bears and Jets but now take a big step up in class as they host the rested Lions on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is coming off its bye week which gave it the opportunity to get healthy on offense with RB David Montgomery, LG Jonah Jackson and C Frank Ragnow set to return. That's positive news for QB Jared Goff, especially when you consider Montgomery can not only produce yards on the ground and through the air but is also one of the league's best blocking backs. The Chargers offense is predicated on balance which doesn't bode particularly well here with the Lions allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season. Only one of Detroit's eight opponents has managed to rush for 100 or more yards this season. With eight of the Lions last nine games coming indoors, they're well-positioned to take flight and I think it all starts with this road tilt on Sunday. Take Detroit (8*). |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers come out of their bye week and look to snap a three-game losing streak in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. With WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams set to return it should be all systems go for the 49ers offense. Note that San Francisco turned the football over three times in each of its last two games with a number of potential scoring drives going awry as a result. The Niners still scored 17 points in each of those two contests and should be able to improve on that production here. Jacksonville has scored 20 or more points in five straight games and I don't expect it to go away quietly on Sunday. You can be sure QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't forgotten a stinker of a performance at home against the Niners during his rookie season in 2021. That was back when Jacksonville was guided by head coach Urban Meyer and Lawrence's weapons included the likes of RB James Robinson and WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. The fact that the Jags even scored 10 points on that day was admirable. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll take my chances grabbing the points with the Jets in what projects as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night in New Jersey. Note that these two teams were involved in a high-scoring shootout the last time they met in 2020. On that day, the Jets nearly staged a massive upset (as 10-point underdogs) on the road, with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, despite Chargers QB Justin Herbert completing 37-of-49 passes for 347 yards (Los Angeles won by only six points). We've already seen the Jets employ smart strategies in similarly tough home matchups this season, holding the likes of Buffalo and Philadelphia to just 16 and 14 points in a pair of upset victories. Jets QB Zach Wilson is likely to be under duress all night long but I have confidence in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson's ability to come up with enough big plays to keep the Chargers defense honest. Los Angeles hasn't been able to find a consistent ground attack this season, making it unlikely it will be able to 'take the air out of the football' should it build a lead in this contest. The Jets have done a tremendous job of stamping out opposing passing games, allowing 268 passing yards or less in all seven games to date. Take New York (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys seem to generally have a small margin for error when they step up in class for games such as this one, particularly on the road. They turned in a near-perfect performance at home against the Rams last Sunday, particularly on the defensive side of the football, yet still only forced one turnover. The 'well has run dry' so to speak in that department as they've failed to force more than a single turnover in any of their last three games - something I do think they'll need to do in order to reach the win column on Sunday. While something like turnovers isn't really predictable, I do think we can count on the Eagles to put a supreme focus on taking care of the football on Sunday after they coughed it up a whopping eight times over the last three games (they still won two of those three contests). The Cowboys check in a woeful 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after recording a home win by 21 points or more. Worse still, they're a long-term 16-37 ATS after delivering five or six ATS wins in their last seven games, which is also the situation here (5-2 ATS this season). The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.1 points. Meanwhile, the home team has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the lone road cover over that stretch coming by way of Dallas in a regular season finale where it was favored by 6.5 points in 2022 (Gardner Minshew started that game for Philadelphia). Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. These two offenses balled out last Sunday as the Cowboys exploded for 43 points in a rout of the Rams while the Eagles rallied to secure a 38-31 road win over the Commanders. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of offensive production on Sunday as Dallas heads to Philadelphia. The Cowboys lived in the Rams backfield last Sunday, ultimately leading to plenty of mistakes and short fields for the offense. It's unlikely they'll enjoy the same level of success against an elite Eagles offensive line here. Philadelphia got away from its ground game last week but that was almost entirely game-script dependent as it trailed much of the way, ultimately running the football just 22 times. It was a similar story a few weeks ago against the Jets in New York. Here, I look for a far more run-centric approach from the Eagles in a game where they've been installed as a home favorite. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games where the line was posted between +3 and -3, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 50-20 in the Eagles last 70 games after their previous contest totalled 60 or more points and 17-6 in their last 23 home games after a win by seven points or less against a divisional foe, with both of those situations in play here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks v. Ravens UNDER 44 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll call for a Ravens letdown offensively after they scored 30+ points in each of their last two games. With that said, I'm not convinced the Seahawks are set up favorably here either as they come off last Sunday's thrilling come-from-behind win over the Browns. Seattle's offense appeared to be cleared for takeoff out of the gates this season but save for some flashes of brilliance (ie. the game-winning drive last Sunday), hasn't really lived up to expectations. Since scoring 37 points against Carolina on September 24th - its second straight game scoring 30+ points - Seattle has been held to 24, 13, 20 and 24 points over its last four games. The Seahawks lone tough defensive opponent over that stretch was Cincinnati and they were held to just 13 points in that contest. Both teams want to run the football consistently and I think this game stays tight enough all the way that they'll stick with pounding the rock - an 'under' bettor's best friend. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 in the Ravens last 19 games as a favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 home contests. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 50 | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Kansas City at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Chiefs have seen the 'under' cash in four straight games entering Sunday's much-anticipated clash with the Dolphins in Germany. I look for a different story to unfold as this game has shootout potential. Miami did welcome back Jalen Ramsey, earlier than expected, from a knee injury last week, bolstering their defense. I still consider the Dolphins defense to be beatable and am confident we'll see the Chiefs rebound offensively following last Sunday's dismal showing in Denver. The Broncos defense has proven to have Kansas City's number in two meetings this season. The last time Miami lined up against Kansas City back in 2020 it was tagged for 33 points in a six-point home defeat. The Fins aren't likely to shy away from a shootout here. There's optimism that Terron Armstead could return to strengthen their offensive line. Even if he can't go, I look for Miami's offense to put forth a better showing than we saw in its most recent spotlight game against Philadelphia two weeks ago. The Chiefs defense has held up incredibly well this season, but has shown signs of sagging a bit lately, yielding 115, 139 and 153 rushing yards over its last three games. If the Fins can get their ground attack rolling downhill the sky's the limit for their passing game on Sunday as the Chiefs simply don't have the personnel to match up against the duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill (spoiler alert: No team does). Take the over (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way the Bengals set up in this game as they look to avenge a 2021 home loss against the 49ers. With that being said, I have plenty of respect for the oddsmakers and believe the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown for a reason on Sunday afternoon. So that leaves us well-positioned for points on the board as the Bengals check in healthy off their bye week and the 49ers appear in better shape back at home with QB Brock Purdy having shaken off the possible concussion he suffered on Monday against Minnesota. Speaking of injuries, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey looked no worse for wear on Monday and he'll be up against a Cincinnati defense that has been Charmin-soft against the run this season, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. San Francisco would be well-suited to employ a quick-strike offensive gameplan with Trent Williams likely to sit once again. Getting the ball out quickly will be paramount for Brock Purdy but keep in mind, the Bengals defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary, capable of leading to splash plays that either put points directly on the scoreboard or lead to short fields for a very capable Cincinnati offense. I think this is a game Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had circled. As I mentioned, the last time these two teams met in 2021, Burrow threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-23 home loss against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers squad. Of note, Deebo Samuel ran the football eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown in that game but was rendered ineffective in the passing game. Samuel won't play on Sunday but McCaffrey can certainly fill the void out of the backfield. The duo of George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk went off for 19 (yes 19!) catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns in that 2021 meeting. Take the over (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -3.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Really tough spot for the Browns here after they 'left it all on the field' in last week's wild, high-scoring win in Indianapolis. The Seahawks had what amounted to a scrimmage at home against the Cardinals and should be no worse for wear entering this game. In fact, Seattle is expected to be stronger with WR D.K. Metcalf likely to return. The Browns lost key backup RB Jerome Ford last week so it's the Kareem Hunt show this Sunday. That's not to mention the fact that QB P.J. Walker with his pop-gun arm will remain under center against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary. Take Seattle (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers got bogged down offensively in a bad weather game (against a very good defense) in Cleveland last Sunday ending their streak of five straight games scoring 30 or more points to open the season. I expect them to pick right back up on Monday as they draw a mouth-watering matchup under the Bank of America Stadium roof in Minnesota. The Vikings only hope on defense is that their blitz-happy nature can force 49ers QB Brock Purdy into a couple of crucial mistakes but I'm more confident in Purdy's ability to pick apart a very beatable Vikes secondary. Even without all-world WR Justin Jefferson, I do think the Minnesota offense can test an extremely stout 49ers defense. Rookie WR Jordan Addison flashed in the absence of JJ last Sunday in Chicago. The Vikes offense got off to a strong start in that contest before slowing down in the second half. While most have given up on RB Alexander Mattison, I think he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Note that he contributed a touchdown run in Minnesota's wild 34-26 loss in San Francisco the last time these two teams met in November of 2021. The Vikes manufactured 26 points in that contest despite Jefferson being held out of the end zone. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Minnesota priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of 61.2 points. Even if we downgrade the Vikes offense with Jefferson sidelined, they still figure to approach the 20-point mark. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles bandwagon was effectively cleared following last Sunday's upset loss against the Jets. Here, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia bounce back against the red hot Dolphins. Miami looks unstoppable on offense but its defense remains vulnerable. The Fins were fortunate to face two punch-drunk offenses in the Giants and Panthers over the last two weeks. They'll face a much different animal this week as the Eagles return home in a foul mood after being perplexed by the Jets defense last Sunday. Philadelphia still has an elite offense while its defense can hold serve just enough to ultimately extend the margin against Miami. Note that the Eagles are 45-24 ATS in their last 69 home games after losing two of their last three contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions are rolling off four straight wins but I look for that streak to grind to a halt on Sunday in Baltimore. Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery for this game and that's a key development as he's one of the best blocking backs in football in addition to his production on the ground. Head coach Dan Campbell has indicated that rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will have a full workload but I expect him to struggle in multiple facets here. Detroit has had a difficult time defending opposing tight ends which sets this up as a smash spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Note that the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Lions are a woeful 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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10-22-23 | Raiders v. Bears +3 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants +3 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*). |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the contrarian in me would love to back the 'over' with the Saints riding a six-game 'under' streak to start the season, I don't see where the points are going to come from on Thursday night in New Orleans. While it may be lost on the average fan or bettor, the Saints have major issues on their offensive line with a number of players either injured or downright ineffective. The Jaguars boast a pass rush that's capable of taking advantage of the Saints o-line woes and I think that leads to New Orleans employing a rather conservative offensive gameplan on Thursday night. We can expect plenty of dump-off passes from QB Derek Carr to RB Alvin Kamara against a Jags defense that concedes such plays regularly. While the Saints wide receivers do have a favorable matchup against a Jags secondary that has been leaky at the best of times and will be missing key CB Tyson Campbell, I'm not convinced Carr will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage. On the flip side, the Jags will either trot out QB Trevor Lawrence on a short week on a gimpy knee or backup C.J. Beathard who has barely seen an NFL field over the last few seasons. Either way, expect Doug Pederson to employ a similarly conservative gameplan to that of the Saints. RB Travis Etienne will likely be force-fed in this game but whether that leads to anything other than modest gains remains to be seen as the Saints defense has yielded just 3.5 yards per rush this season and has yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone. The Jags were involved in a game that totalled 57 points last week but that actually sets us up nicely here as the 'under' is 11-3 the last 14 times they've come off a game that totalled 50+ points, resulting in just 39.7 total points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Dallas has yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total this season and I don't think we'll see that change on Monday night. Last week's debacle against the 49ers can't be pinned on the Cowboys defense. Dallas turned the football over four times in that contest. If you're going to give a team as good as the Niners that many extra possessions, they're going to take advantage and they did scoring 42 points. Here, I look for a much cleaner performance from the Cowboys offense while the defense bounces back as well. While Dallas has proven to be pass-happy with Mike McCarthy calling the plays, it has still topped out at just 253 passing yards in a game this season. I look for the Chargers to employ a balanced offensive attack with RB Austin Ekeler back at full strength. The loss of WR Mike Williams to a season-ending injury hurts against a defense like the Cowboys. Keenan Allen remains an elite wide receiver but not necessarily a field-stretcher like Williams is. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 27-13 with the Cowboys coming off a road loss by two touchdowns or more while the 'under' has gone 60-39 in the Chargers last 99 home games that have seen a total set at 45.5 or higher. Take the under (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Eagles -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's not being priced like it but I believe this game has shootout potential as Seattle comes out of its bye week with a date with the Bengals in Cincinnati. This matchup sets up favorably for the Seahawks offense as Cincinnati checks in allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush on the season. I always think of Seattle as a run-first team under Pete Carroll and sophomore RB Kenneth Walker is quietly having a terrific season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the Seahawks aren't comfortable taking to the air. There's reason to believe QB Geno Smith will be more comfortable in the pocket this week with a trio of starting offensive linemen set to return. When given time, there's no reason the Seahawks offense shouldn't be able to take the lid off the Bengals pass defense will field-stretchers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Locket and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has yet to have a breakout performance. There's little reason to worry about the Bengals offense after they feasted on the Cardinals in Arizona last week. QB Joe Burrow appears to have put his nagging calf injury behind him and Seattle always seems to be vulnerable on defense, regardless the personnel it sends to the field. When the Bengals offense is right, it is one of the most dynamic in the entire NFL. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings season is obviously swirling down the drain following another loss last Sunday, not to mention the fact that all-world WR Justin Jefferson will miss a considerable number of weeks due to injury. With that being said, Minnesota is in a smash spot against the Bears on Sunday and should finally be able to get rolling offensively. Thought to be one of the best 'over' bets on a weekly basis out of the gates this season, you would have to go back to Week 2 to find the last time a game involving the Vikes found its way 'over' the total. That should change here. The Bears defense has already given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns through five games this season. Chicago's secondary has been ravaged by injuries and even without Jefferson, Minnesota's passing game remains dynamic with rookie WR Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and TE T.J. Hockenson in line to eat on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, it's all systems go for Bears QB Justin Fields after he got going against the Commanders last week. Minnesota has managed to pick off just one pass all season in contrast with eight passing touchdowns allowed. That's about par for the course given the Vikes personnel deficits in pass defense. I can't imagine Chicago bothering to bang its head against the wall running the ball in this game, instead electing to attack Minnesota's burnable secondary through the air. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Chiefs are well-positioned to feast on a matador-like Broncos defense on Thursday night. With that being said, we've seen Kansas City play down to the competition in these primetime games in recent years and it's not as if the Chiefs offense has been humming, scoring 27 points or less in four of five games this season and now playing on a short week with TE Travis Kelce banged-up (but likely to play). As for the Denver offense, it figures to get stuck in the mud against a Chiefs defense that has quietly gone about its business, holding all five opponents to 21 points or less this season. There's absolutely nothing appealing about this matchup as far as the Broncos offense goes with the Kansas City defense all but eliminating opponents' big play potential and Denver unable to stretch the field, no matter the opponent. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 15-3 with the Broncos coming off three or more consecutive games in which they allowed 25+ points. The 'under' is also a long-term 42-22 with the Chiefs installed as a home favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. There's a lot the Raiders can do offensively to stay competitive in this football game. RB Josh Jacobs is well-positioned to go off against a Packers defense that has barely laid a hand on opposing running backs this season. While Jimmy Garoppolo's return leads to many downgrading the Raiders offense, I'm not as down on him as most. The Packers secondary is still banged-up with CB Jaire Alexander labelled with a questionable tag, even with the team being idle since a week ago Thursday. LB De'Vondre Campbell's absence can't be understated either. Meanwhile, it's back to all systems go for the Packers offense with RB Aaron Jones likely to return and WR Christian Watson unlikely to be as limited as he was in his return against the Lions. The Raiders vaunted pass rush hasn't been getting home nearly enough so far this season and their secondary is low-rate at best. This sets up as a favorable spot for Packers QB Jordan Love to show off his skills after a miserable performance against Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-19 with the Packers coming off a home loss and 18-7 with the Raiders playing at home off a loss by a touchdown or less against a divisional opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 45.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys are expected to get some reinforcements back on their offensive line in time for Sunday's showdown with the 49ers in Santa Clara. As strange as it sounds, I believe that works in our favor with the 'under' as it should allow Dallas to at least possess the football for longer stretches, chewing up plenty of clock and effectively shortening this game. Given how efficient the Niners offense has been since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback late last season, the less they have the football the better as far as the Cowboys are concerned. Dallas will likely be banging its head against the wall for much of the night trying to run the football as the Niners defense has proven to be a brick wall in that regard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aerial attack has been lukewarm. QB Dak Prescott has attempted 25, 38, 40 and 36 passes in four games this season yet has topped out at just 253 passing yards. On the flip side, this is a likely regression spot for the 49ers offense against an elite Cowboys defense. Dallas did get to see this Purdy-run offense in action in the playoffs last January, limiting it to 19 points and 312 total yards, albeit in a losing effort. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a classic overreaction to last Sunday's results in my opinion as this total has climbed a number of points since opening. The Jets offense went from lifeless to inspired thanks to a stunningly sharp performance from QB Zach Wilson against the mighty Chiefs last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos hung 34 points on the lowly Bears in a massive come-from-behind victory in the Windy City. I'm taking both of those results with a grain of salt, however, as I believe the jury is still out as to how efficient or explosive these two offenses can be. The Jets aren't going to win many games pinning their hopes on an offense that has been of the pop-gun variety at best so far this season. I wouldn't anticipate them opening up the playbook too wide for Wilson in a hostile environment against an opportunistic Broncos defense on Sunday. On the flip side, Denver's furious rally last week came against a hapless Bears defense. I expect the Broncos to go back to a rather conservative offensive gameplan against an elite Jets defense. Note that these two teams just met here in Denver last October with New York prevailing in a 16-9 slugfest. Two years ago on this same field, the Broncos pitched a shutout in a 26-point rout. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 24-11 with the Jets playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses with that situation producing an average total of just 36.3 points. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 with Denver coming off three straight games in which it allowed 25 or more points, as is the case here, leading to just 38.3 total points on average in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Panthers +10 v. Lions | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers check into this road tilt sporting an 0-4 record with QB Bryce Young struggling in his rookie campaign. I think Carolina's offense can get going a little bit in favorable conditions indoors in Detroit on Sunday while we'll gladly fade the Lions coming off consecutive double-digit victories. The Packers didn't look ready for the Lions at all in last week's matchup and Detroit ultimately rolled to a 14-point victory. While Detroit is now 3-1 on the season, it's worth noting that it has gone a long-term 22-42 ATS when coming off three victories in its last four games, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. The Panthers on the other hand have been outscored by a minuscule average margin of 0.8 points the last 66 times they've come off three ATS defeats in their last four contests, as is the case here. These two teams just met last Christmas Eve with the Panthers prevailing by a decisive 37-23 margin. For whatever reason, Carolina seems to match up well with Detroit, taking three of four matchups since 2017 with its lone loss over that stretch coming by a single point here in the Motor City in 2018. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 39 | 34-0 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I understand the logic behind the low posted total in this matchup between two lukewarm (at best) offenses. With that said, I think we're in for a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Patriots are severely depleted due to injuries on the defensive side of the football. We're talking about a who's who of Pats defenders that will be forced to miss Sunday's contest including DE Matt Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez. That opens the door for a tentative Saints offense to enjoy a breakout performance here. The question becomes whether the Patriots offense can hold up its end of the bargain. Counting on point production from this unit has been dicey at best this season but I do think coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss in Dallas last week we will see the Patriots provide an answer offensively back at home. There's enough talent on this New England offense to produce more than the 55 points it has put up through four games (combined). The Saints defense has looked elite but let's pump the brakes a bit here, noting they've still allowed at least 15 points in all four games and haven't exactly faced a slate of offensive juggernauts, going up against Tennessee and Tampa Bay at home and Carolina and Green Bay on the road. In nine all-time meetings in this particular series we've seen a scoring floor of 41 points and a ceiling of 57. That's good enough for me as this one finds its way 'over' the total. Take the over (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Titans -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on a Thursday night last season, the result was a predictable snoozefest that went Washington's way by a score of 12-7. While few are expecting much entertainment from this Thursday's rematch, I actually think we could be in for some offensive fireworks. Both teams thrived offensively last Sunday with both falling a field goal short, albeit in much different fashion. The Bears coughed up a three-touchdown lead in an eventual 34-31 loss to the Broncos, at home no less. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave the mighty Eagles all they could handle on the road in a 31-28 overtime defeat. Chicago's offense sputtered in this matchup last year but should confidently attack a leaky Commanders back-end on Thursday with QB Justin Fields coming off a confidence-building performance against Denver. While the Bears offensive line has been downright offensive so far this season, help is on the way in the form of left guard Teven Jenkins, who is expected to return from a calf injury. Washington has been wildly inconsistent on offense. That's quite simply what you're going to get with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback. I do think we'll see the Commanders get whatever they want on the ground in this game with the underrated RB duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson poised to go off against a Charmin-soft Bears defensive front. Likely to have plenty of time to operate in the pocket, Howell figures to take his shots against an injury-depleted Bears secondary as well. Chicago is allowing a ridiculous 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with the Bears playing on the road off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons, as is the situation here, with that spot producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks -1 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -14 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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10-01-23 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +2 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday. The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are off to solid 2-1 starts to the season. That was expected of the Lions, even if their path to get there has been a little surprising. Few gave the Packers much of a chance as they began the post-Aaron Rodgers era. However, Green Bay has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and I think that will prove to be the case again on Thursday. The Packers find themselves in a rare 'triple revenge' spot in this series having dropped the last three matchups going back to early 2022. They actually did a tremendous job of containing a terrific Lions offense in last season's two meetings, allowing a grand total of 35 points and holding WR Amon-Ra St-Brown to just 104 scoreless yards. While most consider Jordan Love a considerable downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, he won't have too high of expectations thrown his way after Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes and four interceptions against Detroit last season. Love is expected to get some help this week with the return of RB Aaron Jones and the season debut of WR Christian Watson. I expect both to make an impact. Defensively, the Packers have some work to do at the back-end, especially if Jaire Alexander is forced to miss his second straight game. The good news is, the Lions offense hasn't been quite the same on the road, with Jared Goff looking like a completely different quarterback away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Green Bay pass rush specialist Rashan Gary has looked like a man on a mission after last year's devastating ACL injury and is a true game-wrecker on the line. Here, we'll note that the Lions are a long-term 12-30 ATS when priced as a road favorite of less than a touchdown, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Packers are a long-term 108-79 when playing at home on six days or less rest, outscoring the opposition by 8.2 points on average and a terrific 11-2 ATS in an underdog role over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals -1.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Everyone is ready to write off the Bengals following an ugly 0-2 start and now with QB Joe Burrow likely to miss Monday's showdown with the Rams. I actually think this is an excellent opportunity for Cincinnati to silence its critics and get its season turned around against a very beatable opponent. The Rams have been cooked by opposing ground attacks through the first two games this season, allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush. The Bengals are well-positioned to attack Los Angeles on the ground with RB Joe Mixon, especially if Burrow can't suit up. Backup QB Jake Browning has flashed at times in the preseason, particularly with his mobility. The Rams have Aaron Donald on defense much not much else. While WR Puka Nacua has stole the show through two games, I don't think we're seeing much more than the ghost of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Expect the Bengals to make a statement. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Buccaneers have displayed a rock solid offensive floor in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up 45, 27, 28 and 31 points in four meetings going back to 2015 including two since 2021. No, Tampa Bay doesn't have Tom Brady running the show anymore, but I do think it can find success with Baker Mayfield working against what looks to be a pass-funnel Eagles defense so far this season. Injuries to Avante Maddox and Nakobe Dean have certainly played a role in Philadelphia's early-season deficiencies on the defensive side of the football. On the flip side, this is a double-revenge spot for the Eagles after dropping each of its last two matchups against the Bucs. Note that Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 25.7 points per game when coming off consecutive contests in which it gave up 17 points or less over the last three seasons (six-game sample size), leading to an average total of 49.5 points in that situation. The Eagles offense has yet to really hit its stride through two games but still managed to put up a total of 59 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys -13 v. Cardinals | 16-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute walk for the Cowboys as they look to build off of consecutive blowout wins over the Giants and Jets with another lopsided victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. Dallas did lose standout CB Trevon Diggs to a season-ending ACL earlier this week but that's of little consequence in this particular matchup. The Cowboys figure to do whatever they want offensively in this game against a depleted Cardinals defense that folded the tent in the second half against the Giants lukewarm offense last Sunday. Meanwhile, even without Diggs, the Dallas defense figures to make life miserable for the Arizona offense here. The Cowboys have absolutely stymied opposing ground attacks in the early going this season and that should leave Cards QB Joshua Dobbs on an island for much of the afternoon on Sunday. This a 'name your score' type of game for Dallas and the end result shouldn't be pretty for Arizona. Take Dallas (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Bears +13 v. Chiefs | 10-41 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs 'got right' with a win on the road against Jacksonville last week. Here, most are expecting them to run away and hide against the lowly Bears but I think we're in for a more competitive affair than anticipated. Chicago has so many issues right now, not only on the field but when it comes to the coaching staff as well. QB Justin Fields called out his coaches earlier this week and then an FBI raid led to the resignation of defensive coordinator Alan Williams. With all of that being said, I think getting on the field will be a welcome distraction on Sunday afternoon. I actually have high hopes for Bears QB Justin Fields in this matchup. The Chiefs defense got a big boost from the return of DT Chris Jones last week. That same emotional spark won't be there this week. Jones still figures to disrupt the Bears offensive gameplan but I do think that Fields has the mobility to be a little more elusive than Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was last Sunday. Offensively, I still think the Chiefs are a bit in disarray. TE Travis Kelce returned last week and he figures to play a prominent role in the offense this week. The Bears know what's coming, however, and I do think they can do enough to slow the Kansas City attack on Sunday. Note that Chicago has held AFC West opponents to just 17 points on average in their last 33 matchups, outscored by an average margin of only 0.2 points along the way. Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Panthers +5 v. Seahawks | 27-37 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Long a house of horrors for opposing teams, the Seahawks are in a bit of a nightmare spot of their own on Sunday, primed for a letdown off last week's 'upset' victory in Detroit. Carolina is off to an unsurprising 0-2 start and now travels on a short week after dropping a three-point decision at home against the Saints on Monday. Bryce Young won't play this week. That means the offense is left in the capable (?) hands of veteran QB Andy Dalton. I like the matchup for the Panthers offense here as they take on a depleted Seahawks defense that will be without a number of key contributors in the secondary. Seattle's defense isn't all that good at the best of times so without multiple key pieces it figures to be in tough. I actually feel Panthers RB Miles Sanders could be the x-factor here against a Seahawks defense that has proven vulnerable through the first two games of the season. Seattle is dealing with a cluster of injuries to its offensive line while QB Geno Smith has looked very much like a guy that is shouldering the weight of the offense thanks to an ineffective backfield. With DK Metcalf and Will Dissly banged-up there's just not a whole lot to get excited about with this Seahawks offense. Take Carolina (8*). |