Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 10:15 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams present more questions than answers on offense with the Broncos turning to veteran QB Joe Flacco and the Raiders moving on from the short-lived Antonio Brown-era on Monday night. One thing we know for sure is that both Flacco and Raiders QB Derek Carr struggle to push the football down the field with any efficiency. Expect Carr in particular to be under pressure all night long against the Broncos vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, the Broncos will simply ask Flacco to be a 'game manager' and let their rushing attack do most of the heavy lifting. Denver isn't a good enough team to suffer a letdown defensively, even against an undermanned offensive opponent. Meanwhile, Oakland has had plenty of success against Denver here at home over the years and will still carry some confidence. In a competitive early season division game, I'll stick with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints OVER 52 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really expected to see this total skyrocket in advance of Monday's showdown between the Texans and Saints but that hasn't been the case. I'm willing to take the matchup at face value, however, and certainly anticipate a high-scoring affair on Monday night. It's worth noting that the Saints defensive will be missing two key linemen in Mario Edwards and Sheldon Rankins due to injuries. I do have plenty of respect for the Saints secondary but they're beatable and I'm confident the Texans have the personnel to find some mismatches. On the flip side, I don't think the Texans defense has a hope of stopping or even slowing down the Saints offense. QB Drew Brees may be on the down side of his career but he always seems to get off to a strong start in September and this is the perfect matchup for him to really find success distributing the football against a simply overmatched Texans defense. Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann Mathieu were just two key offseason losses for the Texans. Look for the Saints to move the football at will in this game while the Texans thrive in comeback mode, forcing a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This really is the start of a new era for the Pittsburgh Steelers with both RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown join new teams in the offseason. It's a fresh start for the franchise as far as I'm concerned and while they've certainly struggled here in New England over the years, I am confident they can give the Patriots all they can handle to open the 2019 season. With WR JuJu Smith-Schuster being shadowed by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore I expect the Steelers offense to center around RB James Conner in this game. He was used sparingly in the preseason but looked even stronger than he did during his breakout campaign in the absence of Bell last year. The Patriots certainly aren't immune to slow starts (remember they lost their home opener against the Chiefs following their Super Bowl win two years ago). I'm high on the Steelers defense entering this season and look for them to give Tom Brady some headaches on Sunday night. It's worth noting that New England's usually rock solid offensive line has suffered a couple of key losses and will have its work cut out for it trying to keep the Steelers vaunted pass rush at bay. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys -7 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm confident that the Cowboys will absolutely go off offensively against what projects to be a bad Giants defense on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Dallas defense will get to tee off on Giants QB Eli Manning - quite possibly for the last time as rookie Daniel Jones is ready to take over the starting job at a moment's notice. Giants fans may hold out hope that Saquon Barkley can keep them competitive in this Week 1 NFC East showdown but should the G-Men fall behind early, he'll undoubtedly be relegated to pass catching duty against the Cowboys zone. I'm generally not all that high on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense but I'm certainly willing to make an exception here. Prescott should be given all the time he wants to operate with the Giants pass rush a non-factor (especially after losing Olivier Vernon in the offseason). Zeke may be back but you can count on rookie preseason standout Tony Pollard getting some action here as well, and I'm confident both Cowboys backs will produce and ultimately put this one away with time to spare. Take Dallas (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers UNDER 45 | 24-30 | Loss | -112 | 76 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indianapolis and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a matchup of two offenses that had the potential to be great before being derailed by the retirement of Colts QB Andrew Luck and holdout of Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. What could have been an opening week shootout now looks a lot more like a defensive struggle and I don’t believe the oddsmakers have properly accounted for that with this total. I’ve heard plenty of praise for Colts QB Jacoby Brissett but let’s face it, he’s not a true NFL starter. I do like the fact that the Colts return all five starters to their offensive line which should at least help them hold onto the football for extended stretches on Sunday afternoon, but that clock-churning really only helps our play on the ‘under’ as I don’t see them punching it into the end zone consistently. The Colts defense remains an underrated unit. Their ‘bend but don’t break’ style should once again serve them well (and ‘under’ bettors as well). This is a defense that returns 10 of 11 starters from a year ago, not to mention the key addition of pass-rushing specialist Justin Houston. While I do like the Chargers aerial attack, this isn’t a great matchup against the Colts solid secondary. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up as one of the lowest-scoring games on the board this week. The Titans offense has the potential to be bad, real bad. One of the only things it really has going for it is RB Derrick Henry and let’s face it, he has been injury-plagued and inconsistent over the course of his career. Tennessee’s wide receiving corps is one of the worst in the league and QB Marcus Mariota will be staring down at one of the best defenses in football on Sunday in the Dawg Pound. With all of that said, Tennessee might be able to hang tough in this game thanks to its own stellar defense. The Browns have received so much hype for their talent at the skill positions on offense, but what about their terrible offensive line, which reared its ugly head in the preseason? If they can’t keep Baker Mayfield upright it could be a long afternoon in Cleveland. This has all the makings of a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | 40-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This matchup resulted in a 30-14 win for the Chiefs last season but there’s reason to believe this year’s encounter will be much higher-scoring. The Chiefs are going to have a tough time repeating the level of offensive production they reached last year but there’s little reason to expect them to take much of a step back either. This is a terrific opening week matchup against a Jaguars defense that lost a number of key pieces from last year’s team. QB Patrick Mahomes should once again have a field day. On the flip side, the Jags offense can only get better following the departure of QB Blake Bortles. Nick Foles has done nothing but exceed expectations over the course of his career and he gets a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that was generally awful last season and doesn’t figure to get much better here in 2019. Expect Foles and WR Dede Westbrook to do a number on the Chiefs secondary while RB Leonard Fournette – by all accounts fully healthy entering the season – paces the offensive charge against a Chiefs defense that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last season. This total is one of the highest on the board for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’ve seen a considerable adjustment to the spread in this game since opening but I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. The Dolphins may not plan on ‘tanking’ (according to rookie head coach Brian Flores) but you wouldn’t know it by the fire sale they’ve employed in recent weeks. This is a team largely void of top-level talent at all skill positions on offense and supported by a defense that just isn’t going to be very good. Meanwhile, the Ravens ceiling is extremely high this year with a number of key players on both sides of the football set up well for breakout seasons. This is the perfect matchup for Baltimore to tee things up as QB Lamar Jackson and the offense should have little trouble controlling proceedings and ultimately putting this game away in the second half. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Redskins v. Eagles -10 | 27-32 | Loss | -104 | 72 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles defense should absolutely feast on an overmatched Redskins offense on Sunday afternoon. It’s hard to figure the logic behind starting Case Keenum under center given his recent track record, and the lack of talented offensive weapons around him. The Redskins are very much ‘hoping for the best’ until rookie Dwayne Haskins can take over the starting job. This is a nightmarish matchup for an extremely weak Washington offensive line as perhaps no team can bring the heat on opposing quarterbacks like the Eagles defensive front. Eagles QB Carson Wentz is set up to get off to a terrific start here. While the Redskins have a couple of studs in the secondary, they can’t cover everyone and I certainly anticipate Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson having big games on Sunday afternoon. It’s highly likely that the Eagles defense will be setting their offense up with short fields all day long, and I’m confident we’ll see Wentz take full advantage. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2 v. Rams | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of respect for the Rams. I don't believe the missed pass interference call in that win over the Saints tarnishes their appearance in the Super Bowl one bit. But here's the thing - motivation has probably never been higher for the Patriots and Brady and Belichick in particular. I simply don't see this New England squad losing back-to-back Super Bowls, plain and simple. I will say that if the Rams had a healthy Cooper Kupp I may actually be leaning their way here. His absence means that much. RB C.J. Anderson has stolen some of Todd Gurley's thunder for the Rams but I don't expect Belichick's approach to waver one bit - he'll key on Gurley in this one and force Anderson and ultimately QB Jared Goff to beat them. I do expect Goff to play well in this game and the fast track in Atlanta does favor the Rams and their incredible team speed. With that being said, the Patriots come in with a big chip on their shoulder, whether self-manufactured or not, and I look for them to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy once again. Take New England (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | 37-31 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Chiefs last weekend and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as they host the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Home field means a lot in this matchup. We saw the Chiefs fall just short in a Sunday nighter in Foxborough earlier this season. I give Kansas City credit for sticking around in a hostile environment on that night. Not a lot went right for the Chiefs at times in that game, but they ultimately came just a hair short of pulling off the upset. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Kansas City gets New England at Arrowhead Stadium where it owns one of the strongest home field advantages in football. The Chiefs have been a completely different team here at home, particularly on the defensive side of the football. After manhandling the Colts surging offense last week, I believe they're in excellent position to contain Tom Brady and company this Sunday. On the flip side, the Chiefs can score on anyone and while the Patriots defense is playing well and has certainly been an opportunistic bunch, I'm confident in Kansas City's ability to mix things up through the air and on the ground and ultimately hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Sunday. The Patriots absolutely annihilated the Chargers last week but won't be spotted a big early lead again here. The Chiefs get their revenge and advance to the Super Bowl. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -119 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Saints last week as they escaped with a narrow win over the Eagles. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Orleans this time around as they try to defeat the Rams for the second time this season, and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly a decade. Give the Rams credit as they made the red hot Cowboys look rather punchless in last week's dominant victory at home. But now they face a much tougher challenge as they travel to New Orleans, where the Saints own an incredible home field advantage. We didn't see the Saints bring their 'A' game offensively last week, but their defense more than made up for it with a particularly strong finish, keyed by a critical interception in the game's final minute. While the Saints run defense has been terrific this season, I do think the Rams will make some gains on the ground in this one. With that being said, I believe this game comes down to whether Rams QB Jared Goff can get it done against the Saints secondary, or at least keep pace with the legend on the other side in Drew Brees. I don't see it happening. The Saints offense has another gear that I expect to see it reach this Sunday. Unlike last week when their performance was a little disjointed, I look for New Orleans to come out strong and ultimately pull away for a win and cover to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Eagles +8.5 v. Saints | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles got blown out of the water the last time they faced the Saints right here in New Orleans back on November 18th. However, much like last year, these Eagles are looking a lot different in January. QB Nick Foles has stepped in and relished the underdog role once again this year and I really do feel he’s a guy the entire team rallies around and they believe they can win with him under center. I liked some of the wrinkles the Eagles added to the offensive playbook against the Bears and it’s not as if they’re taking a step up in class, at least as far as the defense they’re facing goes, here in New Orleans. Playing against that vaunted Bears defense on the road was no easy task and the Eagles found a way to do just enough to secure a victory. The Saints are certainly tough to beat here at the Superdome but we don’t actually need the Eagles to win outright to cash this ticket. Keep in mind, during the regular season we saw the Buccaneers win outright and the Browns, Rams and Steelers all give the Saints serious scares here in New Orleans. If we know one thing about the Eagles, they’re not going to back down from a challenge and I’m confident they’ll find a way to hang around in this ball game. There are key matchups the Philadelphia offense can exploit against a good but not great Saints defense, enough so that they can stick around should this turn into a shootout. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Eagles win over the Bears last Sunday and also missed with the ‘over’ the last time Philadelphia played here in New Orleans back on November 18th. With that being said, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as this one sets up as a shootout at the Superdome. The Eagles should come in believing they can score in this game after going up against one of the best defenses in football last week in Chicago. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Philadelphia offense as it hits the fast track in New Orleans. I liked some of the changes we saw the Eagles make offensively against the Bears, bringing WR Golden Tate back into the picture, and I do feel Tate can have an even bigger game against a vulnerable Saints pass defense in the slot. It’s also worth noting that WR Alshon Jeffery matches up particularly well with whoever he lines up against on this Saints defense. On the flip side, we’ve got the Saints at home – we know they’re going to put points on the board. I give the Eagles undermanned defense a lot of credit as they have done an excellent job instilling a ‘next man up’ philosophy following a number of key injuries in their secondary. However, there’s a big difference between facing the Bears and young QB Mitch Trubisky and going up against one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Drew Brees and a loaded Saints offense. I don’t believe the books have set this number high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and New England at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total in this game but I’m anticipating a bit of a slugfest. The Chargers offense is somewhat limited with RB Melvin Gordon dealing with a myriad of injuries. Give him credit for sticking it out and turning in a solid performance against the Ravens last week but it’s really difficult to gauge just how much he has left in the tank for this one. I have felt all season that the Patriots possess an underrated defense that is capable of rising to the occasion when it needs to. This is certainly one of those spots where the Pats are going to need a peak performance from their defense as I’m really not sure how much success Tom Brady and company will have on offense against a talented and creative Chargers defense. Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley pushed all the right buttons in last week’s dominant performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run-first offense. The Chargers will face a much different challenge here but I do expect them to show up and play well again. Note that the Patriots scored 27 points or less in six of their final nine regular season games and they eclipsed that number against the likes of the Packers, Dolphins and Jets so it’s tough to envision them getting back to that level here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | 22-30 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ve been a bit slower than most to come around on the Cowboys and did cash a ticket with the Seahawks (barely) in Dallas last Saturday night. With that being said, I see this as a fine matchup for Dallas and actually believe it is capable of pulling off the outright upset. The Rams look like the classic case of a team peaking too early. They closed out the regular season with just two wins in their last four games, and those victories came against the Cardinals and 49ers. As far as I’m concerned, this is a team that peaked in that classic Monday night shootout victory over the Chiefs back in mid-November. Playing last week might have actually been best for the Rams as it would have given them an opportunity to keep building. Instead they go from a standing start against a surging Cowboys squad that believes it can beat anyone right now. Dallas’ offense runs through RB Ezekiel Elliott and I’m confident he’s in for a big game against this beatable Rams defense. I really like what the Cowboys have going for them with Elliott consistently moving the chains and a tremendous defense that doesn’t give up many easy yards. The Rams have had time to add plenty of wrinkles to their offense and we’ll undoubtedly see that on Saturday night but I’m confident in Dallas’ ability to take some punches but remain on its feet. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Colts in last week’s blowout win in Houston but I won’t hesitate to go the other way and back the Chiefs as they kick off what they hope will be a Super Bowl run on Saturday afternoon. First of all, we know that Kansas City owns one of the strongest home field advantages in football playing at Arrowhead Stadium. For the Colts this will be their third consecutive road game in as many weeks while the Chiefs enjoyed a much-needed off week to open the playoffs. I’ve been high on Indianapolis for much of the season but there’s no question it benefited from a favorable schedule and here takes a big step up in class against a hungry, talented and highly-motivated Chiefs squad. Note that the Chiefs have been a far better defensive team at home, where they hold the opposition to around 18 points per game compared to north of 30 ppg on the road. The Colts offense is good but not great. That unit has certainly been buoyed by the schedule they’ve faced. The same goes for the Colts defense, which runs into a true juggernaut here. I’m confident we’ll see the Chiefs march up and down the field all afternoon long on Saturday. There were concerns after the Kareem Hunt suspension and subsequent release but as we’ve seen across the league in recent years, running back has become somewhat of a ‘plug-and-play’ position and I like what I’ve seen from a rejuvenated Damien Williams in the backfield. Maybe the Colts keep up in a track meet but I’m more confident in the Chiefs getting enough stops on defense as the game progresses to secure a comfortable victory. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 41.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and Chicago at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. I would imagine the books will see plenty of support for the ‘under’ leading up to this matchup but I feel the total will prove too low. The common line of thinking is that a late afternoon January game at Soldier Field will be a defensive slugfest but the matchups indicate otherwise. The Eagles are injury-ravaged in their secondary and really up against it facing a versatile Bears offense that can beat you in a lot of different ways. Chicago is guided by one of the best offensive minds in football in head coach Matt Nagy and I’m confident he’ll have an excellent gameplan laid out for beating this undermanned Philadelphia defense. What the Eagles do have going for them is a gutsy QB in Nick Foles who despite playing hurt, should find a way to put some points on the board in this game with a number of weapons at his disposal. The Bears certainly possess an elite defense but they’re facing an Eagles offense that still has most of the key pieces from last year’s Super Bowl run and I don’t think we’ll see Philadelphia go away quietly. We don’t need a shootout to cash this ticket and that certainly plays into our favor. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this matchup as they catch the Chargers in a favorable matchup, playing an early afternoon game on the east coast on Sunday. The Ravens have already proven they can beat the Chargers, and they did so on the road no less, back before Christmas. Baltimore simply isn’t the same team it was earlier in the season. Since installing QB Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have gone run-heavy, in fact they’ve been the most run-heavy team in the league, playing keep-away against every opponent they’ve faced. I expect nothing different here, and I like the fact that they’re facing a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked too early this season, perhaps doing so on that Thursday night win in Kansas City in early December. I have a lot of confidence in the Ravens ability on both sides of the football, with their defense putting together an incredible body of work over the course of the entire season. Their ability to step up and finish off a surging Browns offense on the final season-saving drive last Sunday afternoon was tremendous. Look for them to build off of that performance here. Maybe I would have more confidence in Los Angeles were it not for all of the injuries do-it-all RB Melvin Gordon has dealt with. This is quite simply a beaten up Chargers offense right now, and one I can’t see walking into Baltimore and stealing a win on Sunday. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Seahawks as they have an excellent shot at ‘upsetting’ the Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys inexplicably showed up and played their starters most of the way on the road against the Giants last week (save for RB Ezekiel Elliott) and ultimately pulled out a victory on a miraculous Cole Beasley touchdown pass in the game’s final minute. Now they face a much tougher challenge and do so with a lot of pressure on them to win. Seattle is essentially playing with house money at this point. The Seahawks have exceeded all expectations after cleaning house and getting off to a sluggish start to the season. I love the evolution we’ve seen from the Seahawks offense over the course of the season with RB Chris Carson taking on a feature role. That should serve them well as they go against a Cowboys run defense that is good but not great, and showed signs of wearing down during the stretch run. Unlike the other west coast team on Wild Card Weekend (Chargers), the Seahawks benefit from getting a primetime game, and only have to travel two time zones east at that. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts +2 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The Colts are arguably the league’s hottest team entering the playoffs and after winning with them last Sunday night in Tennessee, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they travel to face the Texans on Wild Card Saturday. The argument can certainly be made that the Colts are the healthier team entering this matchup and I really like the advantage they have with their passing game against a Texans pass defense that looks a lot better on paper than it does on the field. Houston really benefited from a favorable schedule as far as facing elite passing offenses goes. Here, it will face an uphill climb against a red hot Andrew Luck, who has done a tremendous job spreading the football around in this Colts offense. Defensively, the Colts quietly had one of the better units in the league over the course of the regular season, and this is a group that really came together down the stretch. The Texans are capable of putting some points on the board this game, but I believe they will be playing from behind much of the way, and I’m not convinced that they can make enough clutch plays down the stretch to secure a win. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up as a high-scoring playoff showdown between two familiar division opponents. I don’t believe the Texans pass defense can do much to slow a red hot Colts aerial attack led by QB Andrew Luck. Buoyed by a relatively weak schedule, the Houston pass ‘D’ is a ‘paper tiger’ as far as I’m concerned. Look for the Colts to move the football at will through the air in the friendly confines of Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I do fully expect this to be a competitive affair, and if we project the Colts to move the football and put plenty of points on the board, the Texans are going to have to as well. Houston obviously does have offensive weapons, namely dual-threat QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts defense has been good, but ultimately got here thanks to facing a rather limited Titans offense led by backup QB Blaine Gabbert last Sunday night. They will be taking a step up in class in this one. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams during the regular season, and I expect nothing different here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. A classic 'win and you're in' scenario sets up here as the Colts and Titans play to decide who marches on to the postseason. I have no problem backing the Colts as a road favorite here as they catch a banged-up Titans squad that has gone about as far as RB Derrick Henry has carried them down the stretch. Keep in mind, the Colts have been stout against the run lately, giving up just north of 3.2 yards per rush over their last seven contests. This game should fall in the hands of Andrew Luck and the Colts offense and with a balanced approach, I believe they can thrive against a Titans defense that is certainly stout, but will be missing one of its key cogs in DT Jurrell Casey. Save for an egg laid in Jacksonville earlier this month, the Colts have been the hottest team in football for the last two-plus months. I believe they're a playoff team and look for them to put a stamp on it in Tennessee on Sunday night. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Raiders Christmas Eve win over the Broncos, and came close to backing Oakland in that game as well. I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Raiders as they close out the regular season on the road at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon, however. The Chiefs have fallen on some tough times down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games heading into this one. Keep in mind, their losses came on the road against the Rams and Seahawks and at home against the Chargers so there was really no shame in any of those defeats. In that mix was also a narrow road win over the Raiders. The relatively close nature of that contest should help keep their guard up on Sunday afternoon. Not as if they need any extra motivation as they're playing for the number one seed in the AFC and could incredibly fall as many as four spots if things don't go their way this week. With the Raiders in a clear letdown spot, and heading into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe the oddsmakers have this one right. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants -5.5 | 36-35 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. At the tail-end of a long, frustrating season, we should see the Giants go all out to end their campaign on a high note and perhaps give their faithful something to smile about heading into 2019. The gameplan should feature a ton of Saquon Barkley and he should have a field day against a Cowboys squad that has absolutely nothing to play for here. Jerry Jones has said that his 'Boys will be putting their best foot forward here, but I don't see it happening. Expect Dak, Zeke and others to see a series or two of action at most. Take New York (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Lions v. Packers -7.5 | 31-0 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Not that we needed any further evidence that the Packers are intent on ending this season on a positive note, but we got it last Sunday in New Jersey as they rallied back late and defeated the Jets in overtime. Now they get another prime opportunity to build on those positive vibes as they return home to face the division-rival Lions. Detroit has won just twice over its last nine games and hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since mid-November. Even against a very beatable Packers defense, I don't expect the Lions offense to get much done this week either. Having lost three straight meetings in this series, look for the Packers to go all out for the 'W' on Sunday afternoon. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Bills a couple of weeks ago as they won but failed to cover at home against the Lions. I expect a stronger offensive performance this time around as QB Josh Allen should have a field day against this Miami defense. The Bills defense has quietly been one of the most consistent units in the NFL this season. While we're dealing with a slightly higher number than I would like, I do think we'll see Buffalo control proceedings in this one as Miami peaked in that wild win over the Patriots three weeks ago but has gone in the tank since, going 0-2 ATS, losing those games by a combined 58-24 score. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can be sure there will be a lot of bettors looking for action eager to play the 'over' in this, the lone game on the board on Christmas Eve. I can't help but feel the total has been shaded a little high. Note that the Raiders have been involved in a string of relatively high-scoring affairs with the 'over' going 3-1-1 in their last five contests. I'm not sure that's sustainable, however, noting that the Oakland offense is rather punchless. While the Raiders defense has been bad as well, I don't believe the Broncos are well-suited to take advantage. With RB Philip Lindsay struggling over the last couple of games, the Denver offense hasn't been able to gain any headway. An injury to WR Emmanuel Sanders - QB Case Keenum's favorite target - hasn't helped. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series and none of those games have really come all that close to going 'over'. That includes earlier this season, when the Broncos beat the Raiders 20-19 with a field goal in the closing seconds. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's really nothing to fear when it comes to the Rams offense right now. Injuries have taken their toll with WR Cooper Kupp sidelined and RB Todd Gurley banged-up to say the least. We've seen a severely limited Sean McVay offense in the last couple of games and things don't figure to get much easier as they hit the road to face a Cardinals squad eager to play the spoiler role on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Arizona offense continues to struggle. Now they go up against a highly-motivated Rams defense that has gotten better with the return of CB Aqib Talib. Note that the Rams shut out the Cardinals earlier this season and have allowed just 16 points in taking each of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles OVER 46 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are really an 'over' bettors' dream at this stage of the season. Their defense is completely decimated in the secondary and they've had no luck at all slowing down mobile opposing quarterbacks. Their offense is pass-first and appears rejuvenated with Nick Foles back under center, not to mention the fact that they've got their issues sorted when it comes to recently-acquired WR Golden Tate, who is not a fit in this offense. Tate has seen limited action in the last two weeks, to the benefit of the Eagles passing game. The Texans scored 29 points in a win over the Jets last Saturday and have now scored more than 20 points in five straight games. QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the Eagles struggling secondary on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent spot to back the 'over' as the Giants aim to bounce back from a truly ugly showing at a rain-soaked Meadowlands last Sunday. Look for RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram to pace the charge for the Giants offense, which has certainly been handicapped by an ineffective Eli Manning this season. The Colts offense didn't have to do a whole lot at home against the Cowboys last week as they cruised to a 23-0 victory. QB Andrew Luck will likely have to dial it up a little more in this one, and should have plenty of success against a very limited Giants defense that has been getting ripped on a regular basis this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 42 | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at StubHub Center on Saturday night. The Ravens offense has had some success since going with Lamar Jackson under center but this is a tough matchup, traveling across the country to face a banged-up but still strong Chargers defense. The strength of the Los Angeles defense lies in its secondary right now. The Chargers should be able to cheat a little bit in this one and force Jackson to beat them through the air, something he hasn't done particularly well since taking over the starting job. Los Angeles staged an incredible fourth quarter comeback in Kansas City last week but QB Philip Rivers should find the going tough against a tough Ravens defense on Saturday. WR Keenan Allen may be able to play but it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. The same goes for RB Melvin Gordon. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. After getting off to a sluggish start, we saw the Saints ultimately pull away for a two touchdown victory over the Bucs on the road last week. Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five games in a row and look like they've all but quit on the season. I do think we'll see Carolina show up in this game, however. Keep in mind, five of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by five points or less. I'm not entirely convinced that the Saints didn't peak too early this season. This will be the first of two meetings between these two NFC South rivals in the final three weeks of the season and I'm confident we'll see the Panthers hang tough. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Steelers to avoid a fourth straight loss as they host the Patriots on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh fell just short in Oakland last Sunday and now finds itself in danger of coughing up the AFC North division lead. New England is in bounce-back mode off an insane last-second loss in Miami last week. The Pats are limping along right now, having gone just 2-2 SU and ATS over their last four games. The Steelers are generally at their best in these Sunday late afternoon home games and I'm confident their offense will come up big in this matchup. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a big bounce-back spot for the Vikings who quite simply haven't looked good in recent weeks but still remain in playoff position in the NFC. The Dolphins are in a big-time letdown spot here after that thrilling wing and a prayer win over the Patriots last Sunday. Miami hasn't traveled particularly well and will run into a highly-motivated opponent here. I still feel the Dolphins are pretenders, even after hanging with, and ultimately beating a true Super Bowl contender last week. If the Vikes don't show up this week they might as well fold up the tent. I'm confident they do come to play. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions travel across the country after beating the Cardinals in Arizona last Sunday. Detroit is still a bottom-feeder as far as I'm concerned, and while the Bills haven't been any better, they do have some upside here at home in December, coming off a narrow loss to the Jets last week. Look for the Buffalo defense to come up big in this one against a punchless Lions offense. We're being asked to lay a short number with the team in the much better spot. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 | 29-22 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Saturday afternoon. The Texans have generally been good for around 20 points or less on the road this season, outside of a shootout victory over the Colts in Indianapolis, but that came back in late September. The Jets are coming off an unexpectedly high-scoring affair in Buffalo last Sunday, winning by a 27-23 score. That was their highest scoring output since putting up 42 points against the aforementioned Colts back in mid-October. New York has been outgained by over 120 total yards in four consecutive games. The last meeting between these two teams came back in 2015 and it resulted in only 41 total points. I don't expect to see much different of a story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs on Thursday night as they host the surging Chargers with an AFC West division title potentially hanging in the balance. Kansas City is dealing with some key injuries, including one to star WR Tyreek Hill. It sounds like Hill will play on Thursday night although it remains to be seen how effective he can be on a short week. Regardless, I still expect to see the Chiefs offense roll against a banged up Chargers defense. This is actually a fine spot for the Chiefs ground game, even if they are undermanned in that department. Los Angeles has won three games in a row but didn't make things easy on itself in last week's home game against the lowly Bengals. The fact that the Chargers have allowed 51 points in their last two contests is alarming to be sure as they prepare to face one of the league's best offenses in a hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have won nine straight games in this series straight-up and four in a row ATS. Despite sputtering a little bit lately, Kansas City has still outgained each of its last five opponents in terms of total yardage and comes in battle-tested off last week's overtime win over Baltimore. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe we're dealing with a very reasonable total in this matchup, largely due to how inept the Vikings offense looked in last week's ugly 10-point effort in New England. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here as the Seahawks have certainly been beatable on defense this season, regardless whether they've been at home or on the road. Key here may be the fact that Seattle is giving up nearly six yards per rush in recent weeks, and goes up against a highly-motivated RB in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are beat up defensively and will go up against a Seahawks offense that seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is poised for a big performance against a struggling Vikings defense in the slot. Meanwhile, RB Chris Carson has given Seattle some real consistency in the backfield. Minnesota has been tough against the run but I think the Seahawks will be creative enough with Carson and Rashaad Penny running the football to make some headway. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Bengals v. Chargers -14 | 21-26 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon as they host the lowly Bengals. Los Angeles is coming off a thrilling, come-from-behind win in Pittsburgh last Sunday night but I don’t anticipate any sort of letdown here. The Chargers need to keep it rolling here as they close the season with tough matchups against the Chiefs and Broncos on the road, sandwiched around a home date with the Ravens. The Chiefs are in sight atop the AFC West, but Los Angeles needs to take care of business here. The big key in this one should be the Chargers defense. They didn’t perform well in the first half against the Steelers but I liked the way they adjusted at halftime and essentially shut down an explosive Pittsburgh offense in the second half. This is a group that has been bolstered by the return of Joey Bosa and they catch a favorable matchup here against a Bengals offense that is missing QB Andy Dalton and likely WR A.J. Green as well. While Bengals RB Joe Mixon does draw a fine matchup here, if Cincinnati falls behind early, as I expect it will, he simply won’t get enough opportunities. We’re being asked to lay a steep number here, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Jets v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s hard to believe we’re laying points with the Bills at this stage of the season but this is a fine matchup for Buffalo, at home against a listless Jets squad that has a lame duck head coach in Todd Bowles and a makeshift roster due to a number of key injuries. The Jets have lost six games in a row, scoring more than 17 points only once over that stretch, and that came against the Titans last week. It’s worth noting that New York didn’t score an offensive touchdown in that game and was outscored 20-6 in the second half. Expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Bills suffered a 21-17 loss at Miami but easily could have won were it not for a Charles Clay drop in the end zone late in the fourth quarter. There were definitely some positives to take away from that game as QB Josh Allen threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for an incredible 135 yards. There are no concerns at all around the Bills defense as they’ve given up just 52 points over their last three games, going 2-1 in the process. We’re being asked to lay a reasonable number here given Buffalo has already defeated New York 41-10, on the road no less, back on November 11th. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -4 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers mercifully ended the Mike McCarthy era after last week’s demoralizing home loss to the lowly Cardinals. Now I look for them to play with an edge with QB Aaron Rodgers essentially the play-caller on offense. This is Rodgers’ team for the rest of the season anyway and I expect him to perform well against a very beatable Falcons defense. Atlanta is in free-fall mode right now, having dropped four straight games, scoring fewer than 20 points in all four contests. The Falcons haven’t traveled well this season, going 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, with a number of blowout losses in the mix. Their lone road win came against the Redskins. The Packers may no longer have much to play for, but I’m confident we’ll see them show up for their home faithful at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps last week’s no-show had something to do with suffering back-to-back tight, emotional losses to the Seahawks and Vikings, both on the road, over the previous two weeks. Expect a bounce-back here. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wins last Sunday, albeit in much different fashions. The Jaguars completely stymied the Colts in a 6-0 victory while the Titans rallied from a big deficit to get past the Jets 26-22. The Titans have now suffered three straight ATS losses. They haven't lost more than three games in a row ATS since back in 2015-16. Note that they went 3-13 straight-up that season. While this Tennessee squad has had its issues, it's not nearly as bad as that 2015 edition. Prior to last week's win over the Colts, the Jags had gone 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS over their last seven games. QB Cody Kessler made his first start of the season against Indianapolis and completed 18-of-24 passes but for only 150 yards and not a single touchdown. He benefited from playing from ahead in that game. I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate this time around and should the Jags fall behind, I expect to see some mistakes from Kessler against a strong Titans defense. That really should be the difference in this game - the Titans defense. They've been getting torched by the run in recent weeks and the Jags will get RB Leonard Fournette back on Thursday. With that being said, I believe the Titans will benefit from facing a one-dimensional Jags offense. Tennessee's offense has sputtered for much of the campaign and while I'm not sure it will get much going on the ground against an elite Jags run defense, I do believe QB Marcus Mariota can find some success through the air against what I consider to be an overrated Jags pass defense. The Titans have taken three straight meetings ATS in this series. They have the better SU and ATS record this season and they certainly have more to play for on Thursday night. I'll lay the points. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. This should be a matchup for the Redskins offense to take advantage of with the Eagles defense completely injury-ravaged in the secondary. However, Washington's offensive line is also severely short-handed due to injuries and I'm not convinced that QB Colt McCoy will have enough room or time to find his targets downfield and expose the Eagles weakness in the secondary. On the flip side, we should see Philadelphia show a renewed commitment to their ground game with RB Josh Adams coming off a tremendous second half performance against the Giants last week. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' cashing in four of the last five meetings. That only serves to give us a relatively high total to work with in this key December divisional matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It wasn't pretty, but the Eagles got just what they needed last week, rallying to defeat the Giants at home to stay alive in the NFC East race. Now they get another slam dunk divisional matchup at home against the undermanned Redskins and I look for them to take full advantage. I really liked what I saw from Philadephia in the second half of last week's game as RB Josh Adams took over and showed everyone that the Eagles can still run the football. That means a lot as QB Carson Wentz simply hasn't lived up to expectations after a tremendous, albeit injury-shortened 2017 season. Wentz has all sorts of weapons at his disposal, and here on Monday night, I believe those weapons will be on display against a middle of the road Redskins defense. Washington's pass defense has gotten worse as the season has gone on and I don't see a big resurgence here. Offensively, the 'Skins are in tough with QB Colt McCoy at the helm. He made a couple of big plays but also made some big mistakes against the Cowboys last week. Even an extended week of practice isn't going to make much of a difference for McCoy, playing behind a shaky, beat up offensive line. This would be a matchup for the 'Skins passing game to take full advantage of with the Eagles secondary missing a number of key cogs, but I'm not sure McCoy will have any time or room to make those big plays. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks -10 | Top | 16-43 | Win | 105 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Seattle has worked its way back into playoff contention but needs to take full advantage of this slam dunk matchup on Sunday at home against San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off arguably their worst performance of the season, dropping a 27-9 decision at Tampa Bay. Things certainly won't get any easier here as they travel back across the country to face a highly-motivated Seahawks squad. Seattle's offense has really turned things around after looking punchless earlier in the season. RB Chris Carson has given them a lot of versatility while QB Russell Wilson appears to be healthy again, showing a lot more mobility than we saw in the early stages of the season. WR Tyler Lockett is playing some of the best football of his young career while Doug Baldwin continues to work his way back to full health as well. As long as the Seahawks don't completely overlook the Niners they should roll by two touchdowns plus in this one. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Ravens v. Falcons | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens have seemingly turned things around with Lamar Jackson at the helm, delivering back-to-back victories, but both of those came at home against the reeling Bengals and Raiders. Last week marked Baltimore's first ATS win in its last five games and that only came thanks to a late fourth quarter defensive score. The Falcons have lost three games in a row following three consecutive victories. They're not in contention but continue to battle, coming off a hard-fought but ultimately fruitless 31-17 loss at New Orleans on Thanksgiving Night. They've had extra time to prepare for this game and should be comfortable facing a mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson given they face Cam Newton twice a season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a lower scoring game than most expected last week at home against Pittsburgh but it’s not as if the Steelers didn’t move the football all afternoon long. The common line of thinking here is that the Denver defense will be able to manhandle the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals offense but I’m not so easily convinced. Driskel has actually had quite a bit of experience running the Cincinnati offense in the preseason and attempted 29 passes in relief of Andy Dalton last Sunday against Cleveland. I like the fact that Driskel got his feet wet with a touchdown pass to WR Tyler Boyd last week and expect him to build off of that 17-29, 155 pass yards performance against a beatable Broncos secondary. Driskel is expected to have WR A.J. Green at his disposal for this one as well. The Denver offense has been hit-or-miss for the most part this season but lately we have at least seen some consistency as the Broncos have scored 20, 45, 23, 17, 23 and 24 points over their last six games with the outlier coming in a pre-bye week game against the Texans. Here, the Broncos will go up against an awful Bengals defense that simply isn’t stopping anyone right now. Look for RB Philip Lindsay and WR Emmanuel Sanders to go off in this game. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the unappealing matchup between two 5-6 teams. I believe we will see more offensive fireworks than most anticipate. Take the over (10*). |
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11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It was just a few weeks ago that most had completely written off the Cowboys and were calling for head coach Jason Garrett to be fired. Since then, Dallas has reeled off three straight wins to get back above the .500 mark and into the thick of the NFC East race. With that being said, the Cowboys are by no means in the same class as the Saints, and I'm confident we'll see New Orleans impose its will on Thursday night. Last week, Dallas benefited from a leaky Redskins pass defense, with Amari Cooper scoring touchdowns from 40 and 90 yards out. Don't count on a repeat performance here as the Saints defense has been seriously underrated this season. Of course, New Orleans' defensive strength is against the run, which should serve it well as it faces Ezekiel Elliott on Thursday night. Dallas' defense is no pushover either but I do think Drew Brees can pick the Cowboys apart over the middle with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Keep in mind, Dallas is still missing LB Sean Lee who is a big-time difference maker on this defense. Just two weeks back, the Cowboys weren't able to find the end zone until the fourth quarter in an eventual 22-19 win in Atlanta. I simply feel their offense has been too inconsistent to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Titans here in a division game that I believe will be tightly-contested all the way. Tennessee was in a really tough hangover spot last week, going on the road to face a red hot Colts squad fresh off a stunning blowout victory over the Patriots at home the previous week. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Titans came out flat and ultimately got blown out. Now they face a critical matchup with the Texans, sitting two games back of Houston in the AFC South standings. I'm confident we'll see Mike Vrabel's squad come to play in this one. The Texans are red hot, fresh off seven straight victories. However, they've certainly shown a tendency to get involved in close games, with four of those seven wins coming by a field goal or less. The only two truly lopsided victories over that stretch came against two weak opponents in the Jaguars and Dolphins. In those seven wins, the Texans outgained only one opponent by more than 57 total yards (the Cowboys back on October 7th - a game they won by a field goal in overtime). Keep in mind, the Titans were just a one-point underdog in Indianapolis last week. I'm not convinced they should be catching more than a field goal here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Patriots -10 v. Jets | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Patriots have been sitting back during their bye week, listening to everyone sign the praises of the seemingly unquestioned three best teams in the league, the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. Coming off an ugly road loss to the Titans, the Pats have all but fallen out of that conversation and that should be motivation enough to get them on track with a big performance in New Jersey on Sunday. The Jets are mired in another lost season and now likely going without QB Sam Darnold for the second straight game. They have a lame duck head coach in Todd Bowles, who surprisingly wasn’t let go during the bye week but more than likely will be at the end of the season. I’m not convinced the players are ready to ‘leave it all on the field’ in an effort to save his job either. New York is simply undermanned and overmatched by a rested and motivated Patriots squad that should face little resistance in laying the hammer down in this one. Take New England (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Raiders v. Ravens -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark going against the Raiders last Sunday in Arizona but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, this time backing the Ravens in Baltimore. Oakland is not a good football team. This is not a good matchup. The Raiders defense is slow, plain and simple. Now they have to travel for an early start on the east coast, and face arguably the fastest starting quarterback in the NFL in Lamar Jackson. We saw clear evidence of what the Ravens want to do with Jackson under center, and that’s run the football. At this point of the season, it’s pretty clear that the offense isn’t really that well-suited to the injured Joe Flacco. I do feel that Jackson can continue to give them a bit of a boost. Defensively, the Ravens should be fine against a Raiders offense that showed some signs of life last Sunday but still isn’t very good. Note that in that victory over Arizona, QB Derek Carr threw for less than 200 yards and the Raiders top rusher was Jalen Richard with only 61 yards on the ground. Their top receiver had 50 yards. I could go on but the fact is, the Raiders are a bottom-feeder, and they’re a big underdog for a reason on Sunday in Baltimore. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in Seattle’s win over Green Bay last Thursday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson looks as healthy as he has been all season and has now thrown for over 400 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Add in the fact that RB Chris Carson has been productive in four of his last six games and this is an offense with a lot of upside right now. The Panthers benefited from facing a predictable Lions offense last week but still fell by a 20-19 score. There should be a sense of urgency as they return home this week off of back-to-back road losses. I’m still high on the Carolina offense, which has certainly had its share of big games this season. We can count on a big bounce-back effort here against a beatable Seahawks defense that just isn’t what it once was, particularly in the secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Much was made of the Saints 'running up the score' against the defending champion Eagles last Sunday afternoon. I don't believe they'll have the opportunity to do so against the division-rival Falcons on Thursday night, however. Atlanta isn't a player in the NFC South race but is still focused on a possible run to the playoffs. Coming off two of its worst efforts of the season, it won't be hard to get up for this matchup on Thursday night. Keep in mind, going back to the start of the 2014 season, the largest margin of victory in this series was 16 points. That came in a Falcons win as a six-point underdog here in New Orleans four years ago. The next biggest margin of victory was 13 points - another Falcons win here in New Orleans back in September of 2016. Atlanta has actually gone 5-4 SU in the last nine meetings in the series. The underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups between the Falcons and Saints. Atlanta has at the very least gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks. I'm confident we'll see the Falcons do a better job of keeping the seemingly unstoppable Saints offense in check than the Eagles did last Sunday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. If we lose this play, so be it. I'm just not sure where the offense is going to come from with the Bears missing their emerging young quarterback and the Lions without their top rusher and one of their top two wide receivers, not to mention their starting right guard. Chicago is playing on an extremely short week after outlasting the Vikings on Sunday night. It has barely practiced in advance of this game and I can't imagine QB Chase Daniel will have the full offensive playbook at his disposal. Of course, the Bears defense is one of the few dominant defenses left in the NFL today. They'll have a major advantage against an undermanned Lions offense that is missing RB Kerryon Johnson, who is coming off one of the best efforts of his young career, and played a major part in the first meeting between these two teams this season. On the other side, we've seen the Lions defense improve, particularly against the run, since adding Snacks Harrison. While their secondary is missing some key cogs, I'm not sure the Bears will be able to take full advantage without Trubisky. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams UNDER 63.5 | 51-54 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'm going to take the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this showdown between the Chiefs and Rams on Monday night. The move from Mexico City to Los Angeles didn't have any effect on this total, despite the fact it would have set up even better for the 'over' in the high altitude of Mexico, where the defenses would have likely worn down in a hurry. The Chiefs defense in particular has actually performed well lately, allowing just 10, 23, 21 and 14 points during their current four-game winning streak. They'll obviously be taking a big step up in class here but I do feel they can hold up well. The Rams defense hasn't come close to living up to expectations but do benefit from catching the Chiefs at home at least. We certainly don't need a defensive slugfest to cash this ticket. A shootout and an 'under' result could actually correlate with the exceptionally high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45 | 20-25 | Push | 0 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars will be playing their first true home game since way back in Week 7. They do draw the red hot Steelers in a favorable spot here, with Pittsburgh playing on the road in an early start game, where QB Ben Roethlisberger has typically struggled. I do see this as a solid bounce-back matchup for the Jaguars defense, which hasn't come close to living up to expectations this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has quietly turned things around following a disastrous start to the season. The Steelers have to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing the Jags undermanned and overmatched offensive line. While RB Leonard Fournette did provide the Jags a spark in his return last week, I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to make up for QB Blake Bortles shortcomings on Sunday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Seattle on Thursday night as the Seahawks host the Packers in an intriguing NFC matchup. The Seahawks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Los Angeles last Sunday, ultimately falling by a 36-31 score against the Rams. Seattle's defense is undermanned, missing LB K.J. Wright once again. The Seahawks have been getting torched on the ground lately and this one sets up as another unfavorable matchup against an improving Packers running game. Green Bay RB Aaron Jones is gaining close to seven yards per carry and should have little trouble carving up the Seahawks vulnerable run defense here. That opens things up for QB Aaron Rodgers to perhaps finally turn in the big performance many have been waiting for. I have full confidence in the Seahawks offense going up against a banged-up Packers defense. Green Bay is already missing a number of key cogs and LB Blake Martinez is questionable as well playing on a short week on a bad ankle. The matchup sets up well for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. I'm confident we'll see him take a lot of shots downfield with WRs Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in this one. It's also worth noting that like the Seahawks, the Packers are vulnerable against the run, giving up just shy of five yards per rush over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We saw the 49ers post an 'under' result in primetime last week, rolling to a blowout victory over the hapless Raiders. Meanwhile, everyone is down on the Giants offense with struggling QB Eli Manning at the helm. With that being said, I believe we're in for a rather entertaining affair on Monday night as the Niners host the Giants in Santa Clara. As long as the G-Men have the likes of RB Saquon Barkley, WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepherd and TE Even Engram, they have a shot. The 49ers defense is banged up and hasn't been good against the pass at the best of times this season so I'm confident we'll see New York find some offensive success. Meanwhile, the San Francisco offense looked rejuvenated with QB Nick Mullens at the helm and I expect to see some carry-over from last week's performance. Like the Giants, the 49ers do still have talent at the skill positions on offense with RB Matt Breida, WR Marquise Goodwin and TE George Kittle. The Giants defense is undermanned, particularly in the secondary which opens the door for another solid performance from Mullens. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -7 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Eagles. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 7-1 ATS in the Eagles eight games to date this season. That means the SU winner is now an incredible 84-8 ATS in their last 92 contests by my count. Once again here, I don’t believe the spread will come into play. The Eagles motivational level should be high coming off their bye week as a win would put them a full two games ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East standings while a loss would pull the two teams even. Dallas is a mess right now, playing on a short week and fresh off a two-touchdown loss at home against the Titans on Monday night, with a lame duck head coach in Jason Garrett to boot. This is a spot where we should see the Eagles offense take flight (no pun intended) with the Cowboys once again forced to go without LB Sean Lee. We’ve seen glimpses of brilliance from the Philadelphia offense this season but nothing sustained. However, here they’ll have another weapon at their disposal in WR Golden Tate and a fully healthy QB Carson Wentz off the bye week. Even without any semblance of a running game, the Eagles aerial attack should be able to do plenty of damage against a downtrodden Cowboys defense that has quite simply been asked to do too much on a regular basis this season. On the flip side, the Eagles defense has been terrific against the run which leaves Dallas in an awfully tough spot. Even with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, the Cowboys offense is still very one-dimensional and I’m confident we’ll see the Eagles force QB Dak Prescott into at least a couple of key mistakes on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Packers for hanging around for a while against the Patriots in Foxborough last Sunday night but in the end they simply didn’t have the horses to keep up with Tom Brady and company. We should see a completely different story unfold this week, however, as the Pack welcome the Dolphins to Lambeau Field. While the Packers did suffer a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football last Sunday night, there’s little reason to expect those losses to have much of an impact here as the Dolphins offense is bottom of the barrel. Miami QB Brock Osweiler seems to be getting worse with each passing week which should surprise no one. I prefer to focus on the Packers offense in this one, as they should enjoy a tremendous bounce-back performance. Miami doesn’t generate any sort of pass rush and given a clean pocket, I’m confident we’ll see QB Aaron Rodgers pick apart the Dolphins secondary all afternoon long. While Green Bay has dealt with some key injuries at the wide receiver position this season, it has also seen its young players step up in a big way. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been the biggest benefactor of increased playing time and should benefit from WR DaVante Adams drawing away ‘Fins CB Xavien Howard’s coverage on Sunday afternoon. Tight ends have been blazing the ‘Fins defense and the Packers have one of the best in the business in Jimmy Graham. While his production has certainly dropped off in recent years, he is still capable of coming up with a big game and I believe we’ll see that here. We’re being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the Packers, but it’s warranted in my opinion. The Dolphins winning record is a mirage as far as I’m concerned. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs OVER 49.5 | 14-26 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. This isn’t one of the highest totals on the board this week but it absolutely should be as I believe it has shootout potential. The Cardinals are coming off their bye week but prior to that we saw new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich take over play-calling duties and show some glimmers of hope for this struggling group. Rookie QB Josh Rosen certainly has potential and that potential can be reached an awful lot sooner by better incorporating RB David Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald in the offense. Even though Arizona scored only 15 points in a loss to the 49ers last time out, Rosen actually threw for over 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns with Fitzgerald hauling in eight catches for over 100 yards and a score. The Cards offense obviously draws a favorable matchup here as the Chiefs have struggled on defense for much of the season, even if they have shown positive signs of late. To be honest, I’m not sure we’ll need all that much from the Arizona offense to get ‘over’ this reasonable total but we may get it anyway. No opponent has truly been able to slow down the vaunted Chiefs offense and I don’t expect anything to change on Sunday afternoon. RB Kareem Hunt should have an absolute field day against Arizona’s dreadful run defense while QB Patrick Mahomes will have little trouble carving up a secondary that faces considerable drop-off after Patrick Peterson. Even if WR Sammy Watkins can’t go in this one, forcing even more attention than usual WR Tyreek Hill’s way, the Chiefs simply have too many offensive weapons for the Cardinals defense to contend with. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
NFL TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night. I expected to see a considerably higher number but perhaps the Steelers relatively low-scoring result last Sunday in Baltimore has helped keep it in check. We won with the 'under' in Pittsburgh's victory over the Ravens and also leaned hard to the 'over' in the Panthers rout of the Bucs. This is a favorable spot for both offenses on Thursday night and I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with touchdowns not field goals in order to secure a victory. This has the makings of a shootout. The Panthers offense was good, but perhaps not great against a weak Bucs defense last Sunday afternoon. RB Christian McCaffrey has taken his game to another level this season, which has had a lot to do with the outstanding run blocking by the Panthers offensive line. QB Cam Newton didn't have a banner game against the Bucs, but still put up solid numbers, and left some points on the field. He should be able to run wild against a Steelers defense that has had a tough time containing mobile quarterbacks this season. I also expect Newton and WR Devin Funchess, not to mention TE Greg Olsen to have a field day against this beatable Steelers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is not all that imposing and faces a Pittsburgh offense that has been gaining steam lately, and really did a nice job of getting WR Antonio Brown going last Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has enjoyed plenty of time in the pocket this season with the Steelers o-line doing a tremendous job protecting him, particularly of late. Big Ben should have all the time in the world to pick apart an average Panthers pass defense on Thursday night. The last time these two teams met they got into the 50's - that was back when the Panthers didn't have the explosive ground game they do now. Expect another shootout on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on the board this week but it's warranted in my opinion. The Saints expected shootout with the Vikings fizzled last Sunday night as New Orleans jumped out in front and was able to control the game from there. Here, I'm anticipating more of a true back-and-forth shootout as both offenses are capable of scoring at will, and both will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with 7's on the board in order to secure a victory. The fact that we get this matchup in ideal conditions at the Superdome only adds to my confidence in the 'over'. The Rams will likely have WR Cooper Kupp back on the field and he should make an immediate impact against a beatable Saints pass defense. With all of the tools at his disposal, I'm confident Rams head coach Sean McVay will draw up a gameplan to scorch this up-and-down Saints defense. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense hasn't exactly lived up to expectations this season and the New Orleans offense continues to round into form, leading to a mismatch here. Saints WR Michael Thomas should have a field day, as should RB Alvin Kamara. I'm just not convinced either defense will have any answers on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFL AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon as the Ravens and Steelers do battle for the second time this season. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the first matchup and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this spot. The Steelers just aren’t the same offensive team on the road, particularly in these early start games. The Ravens defense didn’t perform well last week in Carolina but should bounce back against a familiar opponent here at home. This is still one of the best defenses in the league and they’ll certainly be up for this matchup against an explosive Steelers offense. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Pittsburgh’s defense play better lately, essentially dating back to that last meeting with the Ravens on September 30th. Since then, Pittsburgh has allowed 17, 21 and 18 points during its three-game winning streak. The Ravens offense has been good, but certainly not great on a consistent basis, having been held to 27 points or less in seven straight games since exploding for 47 points in their opener against the Bills. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Atlanta and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total here considering both of these defenses come in playing relatively well. The Falcons are loaded with weapons on offense but they will face a tough test here as the Redskins are arguably playing their best defensive football of the season right now. That has had something to do with the schedule they’ve faced, although their current three-game winning streak did begin with a stellar defensive performance in a 23-17 win over the Panthers. Since getting torched by the Saints in New Orleans on Drew Brees’ record-setting night back on October 8th, they’ve really tightened things up. Getting the Falcons outdoors, away from the ideal conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is a key for Washington. On the other side of the football, the Falcons defense has played better the last couple of games and now comes off the bye week. Atlanta welcomed Grady Jarrett back last time out, and his presence will be key against the Redskins run-first offensive attack. With RB Chris Thompson banged-up, the ‘Skins aren’t able to fully employ their preferred short passing game, which would ordinarily be a massive advantage against a Falcons defense that is willing to concede passes to running backs. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | 3-34 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland plus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Raiders in a game they should win outright. There aren't a lot of redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams. This truly is an ugly Thursday night matchup. With that being said, I do feel that the Raiders offer some considerable value in this spot. Most have written off Jon Gruden's Raiders as a laughingstock at this point, and perhaps rightfully so. But Oakland does have some upside this week. With RB Marshawn Lynch sidelined due to injury and WR Amari Cooper having been dealt to Dallas, we saw the Raiders turn in one of their best offensive performances of the season last Sunday against Indianapolis, albeit in a losing effort. Lynch's absence makes way for veteran RB Doug Martin, who gained over five yards per rush last Sunday, while WRs Brandon LaFell and Seth Roberts both reached the end zone. That was not a favorable matchup against the Colts, but this is, as the 49ers check in dealing with a number of key injuries, particularly on the defensive side of the football. I am confident we'll see 49ers QB C.J. Beathard start this game but he's not close to 100% healthy and it seems now that opponents have some film on him, they've had little trouble keeping him in check. Over the last two games, the Niners have scored a grand total of just 25 points. RB Matt Breida played last week but didn't look healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain and averaged just 2.6 yards per rush against the Cardinals. Ordinarily this would be a smash spot for the 49ers offense as the Raiders defense leaves a lot to be desired, but right now, I don't believe San Francisco is healthy enough to take full advantage. Take Oakland (10*). |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 45 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Orchard Park on Monday night. The Patriots have been involved in back-to-back wild, high-scoring affairs but I don't believe they'll need nearly as much offense to secure a fifth straight win on Monday. It's certainly worth noting that the Pats have scored at least 38 points in four straight games heading into this one. While the Bills aren't thought of as much, the fact is they do possess a pretty solid defense, despite being on the field an awful lot this season. Their weakness is against the run but I'm not sure the Patriots have the ground game to take full advantage - especially with RB Sony Michel likely sidelined for this one. While New England is known for its offense, the Pats defense has come up big when called upon as well. You have to think the Bills will take a conservative approach with veteran Derek Anderson under center. That actually plays into the hands of a Pats defense that is hungry after giving up a ton of points in the last two weeks, albeit against two good offensive teams in the Chiefs and Bears. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pats last three games. We haven't seen four straight 'over' results involving New England since the first four games last season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Packers. Green Bay is coming off its bye week and the week off should only serve to further improve the health of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has certainly looked good in his last two games. The Rams caught the 49ers in a flat spot last Sunday afternoon but won't be so fortunate against a Green Bay squad that continues to try to make up ground following a relatively poor start to the season. Los Angeles' defense simply hasn't been as good as advertised this season and while the Packers continue to deal with some injuries at the wide receiver position, their young depth has really stepped up lately and should continue to do so here. This is a particularly favorable matchup for WR Davante Adams and TE Jimmy Graham. Both should come up big and help keep the Packers in this game from start to finish. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It seems that most are quick to downgrade the Raiders offense after dealing away WR Amari Cooper. The fact is, Coopers has underachieved in a big way this season and I actually feel his departure may serve to give this offense a bit of a jumpstart. This is certainly a 'get right' matchup against a weak and undermanned Colts defense. On the flip side, the Colts continue to bomb away with no running game to speak of. I certainly anticipate Andrew Luck having a field day against a very weak Raiders pass defense and non-existent pass rush. We're dealing with a high total for a reason in this one, yet most bettors aren't expecting much from either offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent ‘get right’ matchup for the Bears following last week’s sloppy performance at home against the Patriots. It’s one thing to struggle to keep up in a shootout with the Patriots but another matter entirely to stumble against the Jets. I don’t envision the Bears falling into that trap here. New York is hitting the road for the first time since dropping a 31-12 loss at Jacksonville back on September 30th. Since then, the Jets have won two of their last three games but that had more to do with favorable matchups than anything else. Not surprisingly, we saw New York get crushed 37-17 in a tough matchup at home against the Vikings last week. The Jets are currently dealing with a cluster of injuries in their secondary and now face a Bears offense that while inconsistent, can certainly bomb away when a favorable matchup presents itself. Perhaps ‘bomb away’ is the wrong term as QB Mitchell Trubisky seems to fare better in the short passing game. With that being said, Chicago has a wealth of offensive weapons and they should be on full display on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. I don’t believe the Jets will be able to keep within arm’s reach for four quarters. Take Chicago (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has blowout written all over it as far as I’m concerned. While the Steelers cruise into this home date off their bye week, the Browns are fresh off an overtime loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. There were concerns all over the place for Cleveland last week. Its offense couldn’t sustain many drives against a hapless Bucs defense while the defense simply couldn’t come up with big plays when it needed to. Now the Browns stay on the road and face what will be a highly-motivated Steelers squad after Pittsburgh dominated most of the way but ultimately had to settle for a tie in Cleveland back in Week 1. We’ve seen glimpses of the Steelers offensive potential this season but I look for it all to come together in this matchup. This is a prime matchup for RB James Conner in particular, who continues to prove his worth starting in place of holdout Le’Veon Bell. There’s really no need to over-analyze this one – it’s a true statement spot for the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the highest totals on this week's NFL board but it's warranted in my opinion. Both teams are dealing with cluster injuries on the defensive side of the football. The Bucs were already without Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry and will now have to go on without Kwon Alexander as well. Meanwhile, the Bucs are missing a number of key cogs, with Vontaze Burfict the latest to go down. Both offenses are poised to take full advantage on Sunday afternoon. We saw 'under' results from both teams last Sunday but that's of little consequence here. The Bucs were able to march the football up and down the field against a better Cleveland defense than the one they'll face here. The Bengals couldn't get out of an early hole against the Chiefs, which completely changed their offensive gameplan. They should be more comfortable back at home against arguably the league's worst defense in the Bucs. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Jacksonville at 9:30 am et on Sunday. These two teams enter this London matchup with identical 3-4 records but I feel that the Eagles are in a far better place right now and in good position to win this one going away. The Jaguars are reeling. There are questions whether QB Blake Bortles is really the right guy to lead the offense while the defense hasn’t come close to living up to expectations in recent weeks. Was last season a fluke? I’m not ready to make that judgement just yet, but I do feel the Jags find themselves in a really difficult spot traveling across the pond to face the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a truly disappointing fall-from-ahead loss against the Panthers, at home no less. With that being said, QB Carson Wentz is coming off a spectacular performance and we should see some carry-over from that effort here. Since getting WR Alshon Jeffery back the Eagles offense has had a more dynamic look and I believe they’ll give Jacksonville plenty of problems on Sunday. Defensively, the Eagles are down a couple of key cogs but depth is not something they’re lacking on that side of the football. They employ a ‘next man up’ philosophy, much like the Patriots, and draw a favorable matchup in a struggling Jags offense here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Dolphins have surprisingly been involved in back-to-back high-scoring 'over' results, which comes on the heels of consecutive 'under' outcomes. I'm not anticipating a lot of offense in Thursday night's game as Miami will need to lean heavily on its defense to stay competitive with cluster injuries at the wide receiver position on offense. The Texans have done an excellent job of taking away opposing running games this season and should be able to do the same against Miami, forcing QB Brock Osweiler to beat them through the air, something I'm not sure he's capable of with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills ruled out due to injuries. The Miami defense is certainly beatable but the Texans haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, having put up 20 points or less in three straight games. They've scored 22 points or less in six of seven games this season. Texans QB DeShaun Watson has been serviceable this season but lacks the mobility we've been accustomed to seeing from him due to a myriad of injuries. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 58 | 10-45 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. These lofty totals have become much more commonplace in NFL action this season after a number of years where we would see totals top out at 54 points or so. In this case, I believe the high posted total is warranted as this matchup sets up as a shootout. The Chiefs are of course rolling on offense right now and unlikely to be slowed down by a Bengals defense that hasn't done much to stop opposing running or passing games this season. Even with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict, the Bengals are still giving up just shy of five yards per rush. Meanwhile, they've been getting shredded on a weekly basis by opposing passing games. The Bengals offense remains somewhat underrated with QB Andy Dalton enjoying a renaissance year under center. RB Joe Mixon returned to the field last week and should contribute after being a virtual non-factor against the Steelers last week. We won with the 'under' in last week's game against the Steelers, as we anticipated more of a physical, defensive tone between two defensive rivals. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
NFL NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Rams last game – a relatively low-scoring win in Denver last week. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Los Angeles will certainly be taking a step down in class against a 49ers defense that did nothing to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the somewhat limited Packers offense on Monday night. In fact, the Niners have had a tough time slowing down anyone this season. The good news is, the San Francisco offense continues to evolve with C.J. Beathard under center. He certainly looked comfortable running the offense in Green Bay on Monday night and while he faces a slightly tougher test here, the fact is the Rams defense has been below average, and will be playing on the road for the third straight game. With RB Matt Breida, TE George Kittle and WR Marquise Goodwin, the Niners have more than their share of offensive weapons. Meanwhile, the Rams will be without WR Cooper Kupp but shouldn’t miss a beat offensively. QB Jared Goff is coming off a subpar performance last Sunday but should bounce back in a big way here. And of course RB Todd Gurley should run wild as he’s done virtually every week this season. This is a high posted total but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears OVER 48 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I believe there’s strong potential for a back-and-forth shootout in this game as both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last Sunday. The Patriots offense continues to round into form. They’re fresh off a 43-point effort against the hapless Chiefs defense last Sunday night so they’ll definitely be facing a tougher challenge here. With that being said, I believe they’re in good position to keep building against a Bears defense that got completely worn down in the Miami heat last Sunday afternoon. It’s worth noting that Khalil Mack is questionable for the Bears as he deals with an ankle injury. I really like the emergence of RB Sony Michel in the Patriots offense, not to mention the way WR Julian Edelman has worked his way back into the fold. We should only see the Pats offense continue to improve from here. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has also been evolving nicely with QB Mitchell Trubisky settling in and doing an excellent job of spreading the football around to his multitude of weapons. Over his last two games, Trubisky has thrown for well over 600 yards and nine touchdowns (mind you much of that success came against the lowly Bucs defense two games back). In this particular matchup, Chicago should find success with their short passing game. Note that the Patriots have given up at least 24 points in four of six games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Vikings find themselves in a terrific spot to explode offensively. The Jets haven’t been able to generate a pass rush, nor have they don’t a consistently good job defending the pass. That leaves them in a very difficult position trying to slow down a Vikings offense that save for its pass protection has been truly electric this season. The question is whether the Jets can do enough offensively to help this total along. The good news is they do come in with plenty of confidence following back-to-back big offensive showings against the Broncos and Colts. They’ll face a tougher test here, but should be able to turn some drives into points, noting that the Vikings did lose one of their most underrated defenders in cornerback Mike Hughes to a torn ACL last week. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 52 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect anything other than a shootout in this Sunday afternoon matchup in Tampa. The Browns offense has the potential to go off, just as virtually every opponent of the dreadful Bucs defense has this season. Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith was fired earlier this week but it’s tough to envision much changing here. It’s worth noting that the Tampa Bay defense is without two of its best defenders in DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry. Browns QB Baker Mayfield should have plenty of time and room to operate and has just enough talent at the WR and TE position to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. We saw the Bucs offense thrive, as expected, in Atlanta last Sunday (we won with the ‘over’) and while it certainly draws a tougher matchup here, I’m still anticipating plenty of scoring drives, noting that the Browns defense suffered a big drop-off in performance in their last road game, a wild 45-42 loss in Oakland. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Cardinals on Thursday night as they host the reeling Broncos. Arizona has certainly shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. Two games back, the Cardinals posted a 28-18 victory over an improving 49ers squad in San Francisco. Just last Sunday they battled the Vikings hard for 60 minutes, ultimately falling by 10 points, on the road no less. Now they return home and draw a favorable matchup against a Denver squad that can’t get out of its own way right now. The Broncos have lost four straight games, allowing at least 23 points in each of those losses. Meanwhile, their offense continues to lag, having scored 20 points or less in four of their last five contests. QB Case Keenum doesn’t look like the right fit for the offense, with some Broncos faithful calling for Chad Kelly to take over. Outside of WR Emmanuel Sanders I don’t see any of the Broncos having much of an edge against a still-capable Cardinals defense. On the flip side, Arizona RB David Johnson should face little resistance against a Broncos defense that has had no success at all stopping the run in recent weeks. Denver’s once-feared ‘no fly zone’ defense is no more. Chris Harris is essentially the lone bright spot in the Broncos secondary. While the Cardinals by no means have an elite WR corps, especially with veteran Larry Fitzgerald playing at well below 100% healthy, they’re still capable of stretching the field and exposing the Broncos secondary. Look for WR Christian Kirk to continue to build on his solid rapport with rookie QB Josh Rosen, helping pace the offense in what I believe will be a win for the Cardinals. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Lambeau Field on Monday night. Most have already written off the 49ers given all of their injuries, including the big one to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week's home loss to the lowly Cardinals certainly did nothing to change that narrative. While I'm not high enough on the 'Niners to suggest grabbing the points with them here on Monday, I do expect them to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. QB C.J. Beathard has actually performed admirably in a backup role here since the start of last season. Last week we saw him turn in a 300+ yard passing day, even with a number of his offensive weapons sidelined. What I like about Beathard is his ability to extend plays with his mobility. Note that he has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the eight games he's gotten into since the start of last year. The emergence of TE George Kittle has given the 49ers offense a different look this season and he should prove to be a handful for the Packers struggling defense on Monday. Even though he's still nursing a number of injuries, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to bomb away and that's not going to change on Monday night. With the return of RB Aaron Jones the Packers do possess a more versatile offense than they did earlier this season, with three capable running backs to lean on. Like the 49ers, the Pack are also dealing with some key injuries on offense and at wide receiver in particular. I'm not really sure it matters all that much here though. Rodgers should be able to turn in one of his best stat lines of the season against a very beatable 49ers defense that hasn't had any success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks or slowing down vertical aerial attacks. Look for a big night from Packers TE Jimmy Graham. It's also worth noting that the 'Niners are giving up well north of four yards per rush this season. This may not evolve into a true shootout, but I do believe the posted total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a rematch of last year’s season-opener – a game the Chiefs won in blowout fashion right here in Foxborough. I expect a much different story to unfold this time around as the Patriots look to gain an ounce of revenge against Andy Reid’s undefeated squad. I like the way this one sets up for the Pats as they come off an extended week following their Thursday night win over the Colts. We’ve seen their offense evolve and improve over the early stages of the season and I’m confident we’ll see their best effort of the campaign to date on Sunday night against a very beatable Chiefs defense. New England welcomed WR Julian Edelman back to the field last week and he should continue to see his role increase as the weeks go on. In this game I actually expect to see the Patriots backfield take center stage with RBs James White and Sony Michel going off against a porous Chiefs defense. We have seen some chinks in the Chiefs offensive armor over the last couple of games, with the Broncos and Jaguars at least laying out somewhat of a blueprint as to how to slow down this juggernaut. This certainly has all the makings of a shootout, but in the end I like the Patriots to make a couple more big plays down the stretch and pull away for a win and cover. Take New England (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘under’ in the Ravens overtime loss to the Browns last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play this week as Baltimore stays on the road to face the Titans. This Baltimore defense continues to improve and welcomed back cornerback Jimmy Smith last week – a true gamechanger for this unit. I’m confident in Baltimore’s ability to limit a below average Titans offense here. Tennessee has topped out at 26 points this season, but that came two weeks ago against a depleted Eagles defense that has struggled in the early going. The good news is, the Titans do possess a terrific defense that is capable of containing a Ravens offense that has really only been able to bust out against bottom-tier defenses this season. We’ve seen Baltimore make headway against the likes of Buffalo, Denver and Pittsburgh. However, in its other two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland it managed to score a grand total of 32 points. Note that when these two teams met last season, the Titans prevailed by a 23-20 score. I believe both defenses are better this year and anticipate a lower-scoring affair as a result. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Colts v. Jets OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. The Colts defense has fallen back to Earth following a surprisingly strong start to the season. They check into this one having allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games and while things should get a little easier here, the Jets are coming off their best offensive showing of the season last week and could build off of that performance in this favorable matchup at home. QB Sam Darnold has shown plenty of positives in his rookie campaign and should be brimming with confidence after hitting a number of big plays against the Broncos once-feared pass defense last week. We saw WR Robby Anderson re-emerge in last week’s contest and I look for some carry-over from that performance as he continues to build chemistry with Darnold. On the flip side, the Colts offense has shown some progression with QB Andrew Luck getting back in rhythm with the offense. He did well to keep his team in the game against the Patriots last week. The Colts have been bombing away, so to speak, and I anticipate more of the same here this Sunday as Indianapolis could be playing from behind once again. The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. While the Colts are still missing WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle, they showed last week that they can still consistently move the football down the field with their short passing game. It’s that short game that should give the Jets some trouble on Sunday afternoon. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here due to the reputations these two teams carry as AFC also-rans. I see the game playing out differently. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 48 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s not easy to call for a shootout in a game involving the Raiders these days. They were absolutely manhandled by the Chargers last Sunday but do find themselves in a favorable spot here facing a Seahawks defense that is by no means a feared unit anymore. After giving RB Marshawn Lynch very little work in last week’s blowout loss, I do expect Oakland to go back to Lynch in this matchup against his former team and that should bode well for the Raiders offensive production. As for the Seahawks, I expect their offense to go off against a weak Raiders defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run, allowing over five yards per rush, nor has it been able to defend the deep ball, which plays right into the hands of this Seattle aerial attack. The Seahawks are of course back at full strength in their passing game with WR Doug Baldwin back on the field. He was virtually a non-factor in last week’s narrow loss to the Rams but should play a much bigger role this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game has quietly emerged as a serious threat to opposing defenses and I’m confident we’ll see Chris Carson and Mike Davis run wild in this contest. This is a reasonably high posted total for a ‘London game’ but I do believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’m confident we’ll see the Seahawks take care of business as they head across the pond to face the lowly Raiders on Sunday. Oakland showed signs of life in a come-from-behind win over the Browns two weeks ago but couldn’t follow it up last Sunday, falling in blowout fashion against the Chargers. Don’t count on a big bounce-back performance here as I see this as a terrible matchup for the Raiders defense against the Seahawks emerging offense. Seattle QB Russell Wilson still isn’t at full strength, showing little scrambling ability, at least compared to what we’ve seen from him in years’ past. But the good news is, his arm is fine, as he continues to march the offense up and down the field. We saw the Seattle passing game give the Rams big problems last week and there’s little reason to expect anything different against Oakland. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game should have little trouble carving up a Raiders run defense that allows over five yards per rush this season. Seattle no longer has an elite defense, but I do think it will make just enough plays to contribute to a win and cover on Sunday afternoon in London. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the game that will likely have fantasy owners scrambling to pick up Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay will turn to Winston on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta and he draws an extremely favorable matchup in his first start back. I may sound like a broken record playing Falcons ‘overs’ seemingly every week but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Atlanta defense remains depleted and faces another opponent that won’t hesitate to go vertical on them all afternoon long. With little semblance of a running game, the Bucs will likely bomb away and find success doing so. On the flip side, the Falcons offense is coming off a bit of a stinker last week in Pittsburgh. They were able to move the football but ultimately couldn’t put points on the board, but should rebound against a Bucs defense that has shown absolutely zero ability to slow down opposing passing games. Tampa Bay’s main focus is on stopping the run, and it has done a good job of limiting opposing backs. However, the Bucs secondary is bottom of the barrel and will certainly have its hands full against the Falcons loaded receiving corps. We’re dealing with a very high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 52.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting a shootout between these two high-scoring division rivals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati but these AFC North slugfests rarely play out that way (the most recent meeting between these two teams went 23-20 in favor of the Steelers) and I anticipate more of the same this week. The Steelers were in an absolutely beautiful spot last week, hosting a depleted Falcons defense, at home no less. Not surprisingly, they had their way with Atlanta offensively (we won with the Steelers and the over) but should face a considerably tougher challenge on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off a strong defensive showing last week, absolutely shutting the Dolphins down after digging an early hole, allowing the offense to rally before notching a late defensive score. I look for some carry-over from that second half performance here. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense has gotten stronger, particularly against the run, with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict. Pittsburgh’s defense had been getting torched repeatedly prior to last week’s bounce-back performance against the Falcons. That effort should bode well for this group as it prepares to face a somewhat underrated Bengals offense on Sunday afternoon. Both teams may very well get into the 20’s in this contest, but I believe the lofty posted total will simply prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 64 h 52 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota’s offense has taken off since that embarrassing no-show at home against the Bills three weeks ago. Since then we’ve seen the Vikes march up and down the field against both the Rams and Eagles, managing to earn a 1-1 split. Now they return home to host a Cardinals squad that is coming off its first victory of the season, but that came against a weak 49ers squad last Sunday. Here, Arizona will face a much tougher challenge, staying on the road and heading two time zones east for an early start in Minnesota. The Vikings defense hasn’t been great this season but did turn in a fairly strong showing in Philadelphia last week and gets a favorable matchup here. If there’s one thing the Vikes have continued to do well it’s stop the run and that should serve them well as they prepare to face Cards RB David Johnson, who has shown some signs of life since QB Josh Rosen took over the offense. I don’t see how Arizona keeps within arm’s reach for four quarters without a passing game to speak of. Look for another big game from Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins as the Vikes roll at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Giants last second loss at Carolina last Sunday while missing the mark with the 'over' in the Eagles home loss to the Vikings. I'll stay the course and call for the 'over' again as this matchup has shootout potential on Thursday night. The Eagles offense didn't look particularly sharp last Sunday against Minnesota but it may have been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time as the Vikes were bent on revenge after falling in last year's NFC Championship Game and were coming off an extended week following a tough Thursday night loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, in which their defense got lit up. Here the Eagles will draw a Giants defense that hasn't had any answers for opposing offenses this season due to injuries and otherwise. The G-Men will get Olivier Vernon back this week but all indications are that he'll be on a limited snap count. In the last eight meetings in this series, the Giants have allowed 27, 34, 27, 35, 23, 24, 27 and 34 points. As for the Giants offense, we've seen them turning things around lately, scoring at least 27 points in two of their last three games. The Eagles defense is injury-ravaged and has had its hands full with Eli Manning and co. at the best of times in recent years. I've been one of Manning's biggest critics but there's no denying we saw plenty of positives in last week's shootout loss to the Panthers. It does seem as if the G-Men are finally figuring out ways to move the football with all of that star power on offense. With Rodney McLeod sidelined and now his replacement Corey Graham on the shelf as well, Philadelphia is in a tough spot trying to defend the pass. Regardless who falls behind in this game there's certainly 'bomb away' potential against these defenses. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at the Superdome on Monday night. The Redskins have given up yardage in big chunks on the ground this season but that's by design as they're willing to give up rushing yards and focus on stopping the pass. That should actually serve them well against the explosive Saints offense on Monday night. Note that New Orleans will get RB Mark Ingram back from suspension on Monday which could certainly lead to the Saints being a little more run-oriented. The Saints defense has finally shown some signs of life after a miserable start to the season. They were tough on the Giants last week, on the road no less, and keep in mind, New York scored 30+ points yesterday in Carolina. Here, the Saints draw a manageable matchup as the Redskins offense isn't going to scare anyone. QB Alex Smith has yet to get completely in sync with the offense and Washington has proven rather one-dimensional over its last couple of games (after Adrian Peterson turned back the clock in Week 1 against Arizona). I simply feel that we'll see plenty of long, clock-eating drives in this contest. I'm not convinced that the lofty total is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Texans finally notched a victory last week but it didn't come easy as they outlasted the Colts by a 37-34 score in overtime. Now they return home in a favored role against the Cowboys - another team that has struggled in the early going this season. I'll grab the points with Dallas in this spot as I simply feel the 'Boys have a little more upside right now. Houston's secondary has been decimated by injuries going all the way back to the summer. The latest to go down was cornerback Aaron Colvin, leaving a gaping hole should the Cowboys choose to exploit it. Of course, there are questions whether Dallas is capable of taking advantage of such a weakness. I actually feel this game will be more about QB Dak Prescott utilizing RB Ezekiel Elliott in the passing game. We can expect the Cowboys to employ a clock-chewing gameplan on offense while leaving the rest to their underrated defense which gets back DL David Irving from suspension this week. Without LB Sean Lee the Cowboys are certainly vulnerable against the run, but do the Texans have the personnel in place to take advantage? I'm not so sure. Meanwhile, the Dallas secondary has been tough and simply doesn't give up big plays. That is key as the 'Boys try to contain a Texans offense that relies on those big plays through the air to WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller (not to mention Keke Coutee who made a big splash in his debut last week). Take Dallas (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps the fact that both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring games last week, certainly higher-scoring than expected, is resulting in us dealing with a rather lofty posted total in advance of this Sunday night showdown. Whatever the case, I'll back the 'under' as I don't have a great deal of faith in either offense right now. The Cowboys will do their best to churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense again this week, centring around RB Ezekiel Elliott. While I do believe the Texans have their weaknesses defensively, most of those lie in the secondary where they are ravaged by injuries. Their run defense has actually been stout, giving up just 3.6 yards per rush this season. And the question remains whether the Cowboys are capable of exposing any secondary, no matter how depleted, with their often lifeless passing game. The Dallas defense doesn't get nearly enough credit, mainly because it's been overshadowed by the issues on offense. Even without LB Sean Lee, the 'Boys still possess a solid defense across the board and one that will only get better with the return of DL David Irving from suspension this week. Lee's absence is mainly felt against the run but the Texans backfield is average at best. It's through the air where the Cowboys will need to be on their toes defending but I like the way their secondary matches up against the Texans strong wide receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The last time these two teams met in 2014 we saw only 37 total points. That has little bearing on the outcome of this week's game but I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. We've actually won with the 'over' in each of the Rams last two contests and there's absolutely no reason to switch gears here. It seems impossible, but the Rams offense is actually getting better with each passing week. It feels like ages ago that we saw them sputter in the early going against the Raiders in Week 1. Now they look like a fine-tuned machine and with an extra few days to prepare for this matchup against a depleted Seahawks defense I fully expect a big performance across the board. There are concerns worth noting on the Rams defense, however. Cornerback Aqib Talib remains sidelined and while fellow corner Marcus Peters has managed to stay on the field he hasn't looked healthy and has subsequently gotten burned on a number of occasions over the last couple of weeks. Los Angeles should be able to score at will against the Earl Thomas-less Seattle defense but I don't believe it will be the only team putting points on the board on Sunday afternoon. Seattle did welcome back WR Doug Baldwin last week and in his absence Tyler Lockett carved out a nice role in this offense as well. Likely playing from behind most of the day, I expect the Seahawks to all but abandon their running game and more passing certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |