Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I look for both of these offenses to slow-play this game from start to finish. When the Patriots have been at their best this season, we've seen their offense churn out long, clock-eating drives with QB Cam Newton enjoying plenty of success on the ground. I'm just not convinced they can finish many drives with 7's on the board against an elite Rams defense. Meanwhile, there's little reason to have much faith in Rams QB Jared Goff right now, even off a much-needed victory in Arizona last week. Goff was terrific in that game, throwing for 351 yards but he needed 47 pass attempts to get there. I don't expect to see him come close to approaching that number on Thursday. Los Angeles will respect New England's defense and employ a ball and clock control offense here - at least that's my expectation. Look for this total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Baltimore at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's becoming less and less difficult to play NFL 'unders' as this unique Covid-tinged 2020 season goes on. Here, I'll go 'under' the total as the injury-riddled Cowboys - shells of their former selves - travel to Baltimore to face a disjointed Ravens squad due to injuries and otherwise. Dallas has very little going for it right now. Its offensive line is missing a number of key cogs and unlikely to do a good job of protecting veteran QB Andy Dalton or opening up holes for struggling RB Ezekiel Elliott on Tuesday night. On the flip side, the Ravens offense just hasn't worked with any consistency this year - a far cry from the unit that terrorized the league with a unique run-first attack last season. QB Lamar Jackson is expected to be back under center but he'll be operating with a less than healthy supporting cast. The tight end is generally a focal point in the Ravens passing game but their down to ineffective third-string journeyman Luke Willson now. The good news is, Baltimore is expected to have its full compliment of running backs on the field. Expect a concentration on moving the football by land as they eat clock and ultimately shorten this 'win and move on' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team v. Steelers -6.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Monday. We played the 'under' in the Steelers odd Wednesday afternoon matchup with a depleted Ravens squad last week but will shift gears and back the Black and Gold on Monday, as they host a suddenly-surging Washington Football Team. There's no question the Steelers are dealing with some key absences with edge rusher Bud Dupree the latest key cog to go down to injury or otherwise. RB James Conner is also expected to miss this game after a positive Covid test. With all of that being said, I like the matchup here. Pittsburgh is playing on a short week but does have the benefit of staying home. Washington has won three of its last five games overall but I think it's important to consider the way its schedule has played out this season. It opened 1-5, including a number of blowout losses against superior opponents including Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and Los Angeles (Rams). Since October 25th, the Football Team has faced the Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Bengals and Cowboys again, going 3-2 as mentioned earlier. While I do like some of the pieces Washington has in place, most notably WR Terry McLaurin and RB Antonio Gibson, not to mention a terrific defense. Here, however, I expect it to fall behind early, which would take it away from its preferred gameplan, which involves keeping QB Alex Smith in a game manager role. I look for the Steelers to force Washington to take to the air in this contest, which should severely hamper the Football Team's prospects of staying competitive in this game. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 50.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -109 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Chiefs should ultimately have their way with the weary, injury-plagued Broncos on Sunday night - just as they did in their earlier matchup this season. Denver limps into this contest off a beatdown at the hands of the Saints last Sunday. Of course, the Broncos didn't have a hope of competing in that game with little-used wide receiver Kendall Hinton starting at quarterback. Here, they'll get QB Drew Lock back on the field and while he will likely struggle to take care of the football against an aggressive Chiefs defense, I do have some faith in him to orchestrate some scoring drives once this contest gets out of hand. It's not as if Kansas City possesses a shut down defensive unit - they're been vulnerable against the pass this season, struggling in particular against the tight end position and Denver has a sneaky-good one in Noah Fant. Likewise, Kansas City has had a tough time defending the run, allowing just north of 4.5 yards per rush. I don't need to say a lot about the Chiefs explosive offense. What you see is what you get as QB Patrick Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career. The Chiefs should have little trouble exposing an injury-ravaged Broncos defense that gives up over 4.8 yards per rush and has been tagged for four touchdowns to WR Tyreek Hill alone over the last three matchups between these AFC West foes. As an added bonus, we can likely anticipate some short fields for the Chiefs offense thanks to their opportunistic defense taking advantage of a mistake-prone Drew Lock. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Giants +11 v. Seahawks | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants as they head to the Pacific Northwest to challenge the surging Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. This line shifted once news came out that Giants QB Daniel Jones would miss this game, with journeyman Colt McCoy starting in his place. While my hopes aren't high for McCoy in this tough matchup, the G-Men have become a run-first operation anyway and I'm confident their defense can hold up well enough to keep the Seahawks within reach on Sunday. Seattle's offense has been doing just enough to win in recent weeks - no longer looking like the explosive unit we saw earlier in the season. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against a Giants defense that has been playing some of its best football and has proven to be an opportunistic group, as evidenced by last week's game-clinching fumble recovery in the final minute against Cincinnati. We've got the Giants going from nearly touchdown favorites a week ago to double-digit underdogs this week - with their playoff hopes still alive. Take New York (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's not easy betting NFL 'unders' these days but we won with the 'under' in the Seahawks most recent game - Monday's 23-17 win in Philadelphia and Seattle has actually seen its last three games stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Seahawks host the Giants. New York will be without QB Daniel Jones in this game, which means we should see an increased focus on running the football and churning out long drives in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field (and protect mistake-prone veteran QB Colt McCoy). I'm high on the Giants defense and believe they're capable of rising to the occasion again here, especially given Seattle's recent shift to a more conservative gameplan after Russell Wilson's early November struggles. The Seahawks have been doing just enough on offense to win games in recent weeks, and letting their defense take care of the rest - a defense that has certainly been playing some of its best football of the season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings -10 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Vikings as they draw a favorable matchup against the lowly Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville's defense wasn't good to begin with and now they're dealing with a number of key injuries. With no semblance of a pass rush whatsoever, I look for Vikes QB Kirk Cousins to carve them up on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Jacksonville got shredded for over seven yards per rush by the Browns and their run-first offense last Sunday. We can count on more of the same here as Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook will be salivating at thought of this matchup. Jags QB Mike Glennon did a nice job of nearly leading them all the way back against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not convinced he can do enough to keep them within the number here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-02-20 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. This is obviously one of the more unique scheduling situations we've seen in NFL history and I'm anticipating a bit of a disjointed affair from both sides. The Ravens are obviously decimated with injuries and Covid-related absences. Robert Griffin III will get the start at quarterback and I expect him to serve as little more than a game manager in this one. With the Steelers struggling to slow down opposing ground games in recent weeks, I do believe Baltimore can have some success running the football, but that might only lead to long, clock-churning drives rather than 7's on the board. On the flip side, the Steelers always seem to have a tendency to play down to the level of their opposition and this is a division rivalry game after all. I'm not convinced we'll see the Pittsburgh offense operating at peak efficiency. Even with RB James Conner sidelined, I think we'll see the Steelers make a concerted effort to pound the football and ultimately shorten this game. It really is a 'win and move on' type of situation for Mike Tomlin's squad as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game (those type of affairs are virtually non-existent in today's NFL) I do believe the total will prove to be too high. Seattle's offense has taken a step back in the last couple of games and while this does look like a favorable matchup at first glance, a deeper looks shows the Eagles have proven capable of limiting the big play potential of opposing wide receivers while also playing tough run defense, giving up just 3.4 yards per rush. I believe we'll see Seahawks QB Russell Wilson orchestrate plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game. Note that Seattle was the best 'over' bet in the league earlier in the season but has now seen its last two games stay 'under' the total. Philadelphia's offense continues to be hampered by injuries on the offensive line and a largely ineffective QB in Carson Wentz. The Eagles will trot out their eighth different offensive line combination in 11 games on Monday night. Head coach Doug Pederson has also alluded to the fact that rookie backup QB Jalen Hurts could see more playing time and I'm not sure that's a positive for an offense that is trying to find some continuity. Note that the Seahawks pass rush has stepped up in recent weeks, recording 16 sacks in their last four games. Wentz has certainly been prone to drive-stalling plays (no quarterback has taken more sacks this season) and I believe we could see more of that tonight, with Philadelphia moving the football but not finishing drives with 7's on the board. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Rams last game - a 27-24 win over Tampa Bay on Monday night. That was somewhat of an uncharacteristic breakout performance from the Los Angeles offense, but with the Bucs defense suddenly slumping, perhaps it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Here, the Rams go up against a familiar divisional foe in the 49ers and while San Francisco continues to play without a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, that unit has still managed to hold its own, allowing just over 3.5 yards per rush and limiting the big play potential of opposing offenses. Meanwhile, the Niners offense is a shell of its former self with a number of key players sidelined due to Covid or otherwise. We may see the Niners make some headway on the ground in this one but that actually plays into our favor as we could see them grind out some clock-churning drives, but perhaps not be able to finish many of those drives with 7's on the board. You'd be hard-pressed to find a defense that minimizes the impact of opposing wide receivers more than the Rams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | Cardinals v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we're dealing with a reasonable total here only due to the Patriots inability to push last week's game in Houston 'over' the total - a game where we lost a big play on the 'over'. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as many of the same ideas apply. The Patriots have done nothing to slow opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks, with virtually no pass rush and growing holes in their secondary. That should open the door for Cards dual-threat QB Kyler Murray who is coming off a much needed bye week to heal up his injured shoulder. The Pats went a little too conservative in last week's eventual loss to the Texans but I believe we'll see them open things up a little more back at home against the Cards. Arizona is dealing with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football, most notably missing former Pats standout DL Chandler Jones. Even if the Pats elect to lean on their ground attack, they should have little trouble dicing up a Cards defense that got torched on the ground by the Seahawks the last time we saw them in action. We don't need a true shootout to cash this ticket but we might just get one anyway. Take the over (10*). |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals OVER 44 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Giants offense (now that's something we don't say very often) as they return from their bye week to face a Bengals defense that has been blown up time and time again this season. Only three teams have recorded fewer sacks and five fewer quarterback hits than Cincinnati this season which should really open things up for promising but mistake-prone Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. While the G-Men by no means boast an elite ground attack they should have little trouble running wild against a Bengals defense that allows well over five yards per rush this season. Of course, few are expecting much from the Cincinnati offense now that super rookie Joe Burrow is sidelined for the year. With that being said, I believe the Bengals have a bit of upside here as they catch New York in a possible letdown or even lookahead spot now that Burrow is out. Word is that Brandon Allen will get the call-up from the practice squad to start this game. I prefer Allen over backup Ryan Finley, noting that Allen did see some game action with the Broncos last year and has some history with Bengals head coach Zac Taylor from their days together with the Rams. It's not as if Allen is devoid of any weapons as WR Tyler Boyd remains a home run threat at any given time. One thing I don't think we'll see is Cincinnati go on long, clock-churning drives in this game, which plays into our hands with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. We frustratingly missed the mark with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game - a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O'Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay - the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between two NFC squads that believe they're Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Bucs. Los Angeles has regained its defensive swagger here in 2020. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt and the Rams have also been tough on opposing ground attacks, giving up just a shade over four yards per rush. While the Bucs exploded offensively last week (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), that was against a below average Panthers defense. Here, Tom Brady's number one job will be taking care of the football and keeping the Bucs offense on schedule with long, methodical drives down the field. On the flip side, the Rams offense draws a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that is still among the league's best, even after that poor showing in front of a national audience against the Saints two weeks ago. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't fared well when under pressure throughout his career, and he should be under duress for much of this contest with Tampa Bay entering the week second in the NFL in sacks. I mentioned the Rams run defense earlier - the Bucs have been even better in that regard, giving up a measly three yards per rush. I just don't believe anything will come easy for these two offenses on Monday night and we're working with a reasonably high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts UNDER 51.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Indianapolis at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll continue to look for spots to play Colts 'unders' and this looks like another favorable situation on Sunday afternoon against the Packers. Green Bay faces an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the second-fewest touchdown passes in the league this season. While QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed a career year by many accounts, this is undoubtedly a difficult matchup and I look for Green Bay to lean heavily on its ground attack against a Colts defense that gives up over 4.3 yards per rush. On the flip side, I'm not all that high on the Colts offense, even with QB Philip Rivers enjoying a renaissance of sorts in Indianapolis. The Packers have a very opportunistic secondary led by Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, perhaps forcing Rivers into more of a game manager role in this one. You can certainly run on the Packers defense, but we've only seen the Colts ground attack truly shine in fits and starts this season with rookie Jonathan Taylor somewhat of a disappointment. This is an intriguing non-conference showdown but don't count on an offensive showcase. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars OVER 46 | 27-3 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has the potential to get 'over' the total regardless the way it plays out on the field. The Steelers draw an extremely favorable matchup, particularly on the offensive side of the football where Ben Roethlisberger should feast against a Jags defense that simply doesn't generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. While the Pittsburgh ground game has been average at best this season it draws a Jags defense that lacks the ability to consistently slow opposing running backs. Look for a big game from RB James Conner and co., especially once the Steelers are able to build an inevitable lead in this contest. As good as the Steelers have been on defense this season, there are some soft spots for the Jags to take advantage of. Most notably, they've allowed north of 5.2 yards per rush over the last three weeks, which opens the door for Jags RB James Robinson who has enjoyed a breakout season. We've seen Jags rookie QB Jake Luton 'go for it' on a number of big play attempts over the last two weeks, building a solid rapport with WR D.J. Chark. I'm confident we see the Jags do just enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total (by today's standards). Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as a shootout in Houston as the suddenly rejuvenated Patriots challenge the Texans. Houston's defense has been virtually non-existent this season, against both the pass and the run. The Texans aren't generating any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as Pats dual-threat QB Cam Newton looks healthy again and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Incredibly, Houston is allowing north of 5.5 yards per rush which should really open things up for New England offense, which is admittedly a little undermanned. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has looked like a different unit since moving on from head coach Bill O'Brien. And speaking of defenses that don't get after opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall into that category as well. Even statuesque QB Joe Flacco was able to absolutely torch the Pats two weeks ago. There's little reason to expect anything different here. Also like the Texans, the Pats have struggled to contain opposing ground attacks, giving up 4.6 yards per rush on the season. All in all, both offenses are set up well inside ideal conditions at NRG Stadium and I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers -10 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen the Steelers play down to the level of their competition time and time again over the years, and although they check in undefeated here in 2020, that has held true this season - most recently in a narrow victory over Dallas two weeks ago. Here, Pittsburgh draws an extremely favorable matchup against a very green Jaguars squad that is coming off back-to-back tight losses to the Texans and Packers. After narrowly missing out on upset wins in those games, I look for the dam to break, so to speak on Sunday afternoon. Note that Jacksonville is a shell of its former self on the defensive side of the football where it is generating little to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jags are giving up big play after big play to opposing offenses and that should continue against a steadily-improving Steelers offense here. Once Pittsburgh is able to build a sizable lead there's little reason to believe Jacksonville can come up with enough touchdown drives to stay within arm's reach. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect precisely that type of contest to unfold as the Cardinals and Seahawks renew acquaintances on Thursday night. Arizona is of course coming off a thrilling last-second come-from-behind, hail mary-fueled win over the Bills last Sunday. There's little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from the Cardinals offense against an undermanned, struggling Seahawks defense that simply hasn't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all this season. With that being said, we can also expect a big, bounce-back performance from the Seahawks offense as they once again match up well against a beaten up Cards defense on Thursday. Arizona is missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, particularly up front. QB Russell Wilson has been under heavy duress for much of the last two games but gets a terrific 'get-right' matchup here. It sounds like Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett will be good to go despite nursing an injury on a short week, obviously helping Wilson's cause against a Cards defense that has yet to prove it can cover the slot. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -147 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle (moneyline) over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. As this price continues to drop, the Seahawks are now a shoo-in for my Thursday card but rather than lay points given their defensive inefficiencies which always keep the back-door open, I'll back them on the moneyline. The Cardinals are in a clear letdown spot coming off that thrilling last-second victory over Buffalo last week. You might remember the Cards also snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Seahawks earlier this month, putting Seattle in a clear revenge spot at home here on Thursday night. I mentioned the Seahawks defensive struggles, but lost in the Cards recent success has been their inability to slow down any opposing offense. Of course, injuries have played a big role as Arizona is missing a number of key cogs up front - most notably edge rusher Chandler Jones. Last week a road-weary Seahawks squad wasn't able to match the Rams intensity, ultimately falling in a second straight disappointing contest for their backers. Here, I look for the Seahawks to ramp back up for a big division game, and ultimately prevail in spite of Cards QB Kyler Murray's efforts. Take Seattle moneyline (10*). |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not difficult to fade the Vikings in this spot as they lay points on the road following consecutive victories. I can't help but put the Vikes in the 'paper tiger' category and here they'll head to Chicago to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated Bears squad. Note that Chicago has proven to be the kryptonite for Vikes standout RB Dalvin Cook in recent years. Perhaps equally as notable, the Bears have been able to keep WR Adam Thielen at bay in recent meetings as well. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is one of the league's weakest units, due to injuries and otherwise. While the Bears by no means possess an elite offensive squad, they might just enjoy a breakout performance against Minnesota here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these AFC West rivals in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Broncos loss in Atlanta last Sunday and there's little reason to go any other way this week as they take on the surging Raiders. Broncos QB Drew Lock didn't exactly flourish in last week's favorable matchup with the Falcons but he did eventually get the offensive moving and put points on the board and I look for him to build off of that performance here. The Raiders aren't applying any pressure on opposing quarterbacks - a contrast to the pressure Lock has been under in recent weeks. Given a clean pocket I'm confident Lock can continue to build on his solid rapport with his young receiving corps, most notable Jerry Jeudy, who is looking like a star in the making. Also note that Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per rush which should open things up even more for this Denver offense. I have no concerns at all about the Raiders offense thriving against the Broncos injury-plagued defense. Denver hasn't been particularly tough against the run or the pass and the Raiders are quietly ascending to elite-level status on offense. Look for TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in particular to feast in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of Thursday night's losing play on the Colts-Titans 'under', it's not easy playing an NFL 'under' these days. With that being said, we'll go back to the well here as the Eagles and Giants set up as a low-scoring NFC East affair. I'm much higher on the Giants defense than most. They catch a fairly reasonable matchup here, even with the Eagles getting healthier off their bye week, welcoming back a number of key cogs on the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense is set up exceptionally well to cause plenty of headaches for Giants QB Daniel Jones. Both defenses has been stout against the run but I don't believe that will prevent either offensive coordinator from drawing up plenty of run plays, ultimately banging their heads against the wall in that regard. That should lead to plenty of clock-churning drives, supporting our play on the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Tom Brady and the Bucs following last Sunday night's shellacking at the hands of the Saints. It doesn't take much to empty an NFL team's bandwagon, particularly from a betting perspective, and that lopsided loss certainly fit the bill. We already won with the Bucs laying points against the Panthers once this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this one. Note that the Panthers defense has had a miserable time trying to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks - truly a shell of this unit's former self. Look for Brady to stay upright for the majority of this game, and ultimately pick apart a very beatable Panthers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers once again lost do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey to injury - this time a shoulder - in last week's hard-fought loss in Kansas City. Now it will be up to backup Mike Davis to again shoulder the load, but the prospects of him finding much success against a Bucs run defense that allows under three yards per rush is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has only shown flashes of brilliance this season, not playing at a high level on nearly a consistent enough basis to keep Carolina in contention in the NFC South. He'll be under duress for much of this contest and even when he is given time, expect the Bucs secondary to offer blanket coverage on the Panthers average receiving corps. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It has become very difficult to play the 'under' in today's NFL with scoring up across the league and the majority of games finding their way 'over' the total. With that being said, we won with the 'under' in the Colts most recent game - last Sunday's loss to the Ravens, and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday night in Tennessee. The Colts may have come up short against Baltimore, but they once again performed well defensively, keeping elite playmaker Lamar Jackson at bay for much of that contest. Their zone defense has done a tremendous job of limiting big plays from opposing offenses, and I expect that to be the case again here. Keep in mind, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has cooled following a red hot start to the season, topping out at two touchdown passes in three straight games. While Tennessee does boast arguably the league's best running back in Derrick Henry, he'll be going up against an elite Colts run defense that gives up just north of three yards per rush this season. On the flip side, the Indianapolis offense is average at best, with QB Philip Rivers more of a game manager than a gunslinger at this stage of his career, even though he has fit the latter bill more often than not in recent weeks. Here in a tough divisional road game, I'm not anticipating Rivers slinging the football all over the field. Look for the Colts to instead elect to run the football early and often against a Titans defense that hasn't proven it can slow opposing ground attacks. Look for plenty of long, clock churning drives in this one, helping keep the final score 'under' the relatively high posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the Patriots head to the Meadowlands to face the hapless Jets on Monday night. New England's offense has been laboring, largely due to QB Cam Newton's shakiness since returning to the field following his COVID diagnosis last month. The good news is, Newton is line for a big bounce-back performance here. The Jets defense has been virtually non-existent, having traded away most of its key pieces as the team continues to 'tank for Trevor', or at least that seems to be the case. We've seen the Pats ground game start to gain some traction and in this particular matchup they should feast against a putrid Jets front. So the question is whether New York can find enough offensive success to help this one 'over' the total. I believe it can. The Patriots defense has held up ok but is expected to be without its best player in CB Stephon Gilmore once again. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting healthier on offense with Sam Darnold's favorite target, WR Jamison Crowder, expected to return. Keep in mind, he had racked up over 100 receiving yards in three of four games before going down to injury earlier in the season. Things could potentially open up a bit for the New York offense here considering the Pats are giving up just shy of five yards per rush. While there's little reason to anticipate an offensive explosion from the Jets, we really don't need such a performance given this relatively low posted total. Even last week in a much tougher situation on the road against the Chiefs, New York did manage to orchestrate three first half scoring drives. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Colts blowout win in Detroit last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they return home to host the Ravens. Baltimore hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut that we saw a year ago, with teams doing a better job of containing QB Lamar Jackson's big-play ability. Here, Jackson draws a tough matchup against a Colts defense that has virtually eliminated opposing QB's ability to run the football. I'm not high enough on the Ravens pass-catching corps to call for a breakout performance against a quality Indy pass defense here either. With that being said, I wouldn't count on another huge offensive showing from the Colts offense. QB Philip Rivers has looked more like an elite quarterback than a game-manager in recent weeks, but should regress back into the latter role against a tough Ravens defense that obviously has a sour taste in its mouth following last week's loss to the Steelers. Few teams have gotten much done on the ground against Baltimore and I fully expect the Colts to join that group as well. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential - as do most games played at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. The Broncos roared back from a big fourth quarter deficit to stun the Chargers on a last-second touchdown last Sunday and QB Drew Lock and co. find themselves in another favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. No other team gives up more big plays (plays of 20+ yards) through the air than Atlanta. We've seen the Broncos offense involve into a more pass-heavy attack with the emergence of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and TE Noah Fant. I don't expect Denver to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football a whole lot against a Falcons defense that has actually proven to be stout against the run, giving up under four yards per rush. On the flip side, the Falcons should go back to airing it out after a subpar performance in that regard in last week's victory in Carolina. While WR Calvin Ridley is sidelined, Julio Jones is more than capable of shouldering the load. It's also worth noting that the door is open for Todd Gurley to go off against a Broncos defense that has allowed well north of five yards per rush over the last couple of games, with key injuries on the defensive side of the football playing a role in that regression. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 50 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams totaled just 44 points in a Texans blowout win back on October 11th but I believe the potential is there for this one to be considerably higher-scoring. While the Jags will be without QB Gardner Minshew in this game, installing Jake Luton under center, I'm not sure it really matters. It's not as if Minshew was lighting the league on fire before he suffered a thumb injury. RB James Robinson has become the clear focal point of the Jags offense and he should enjoy plenty of success both on the ground (Houston is allowing a whopping 5.6 yards per rush this season) and in the short passing game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense is in line for a big breakout performance coming off their bye week, facing an undermanned Jags defense that has struggled all season long. QB DeShaun Watson has looked like a new man since the firing of head coach Bill O'Brien and should continue to thrive here against a Jags defense that doesn't apply any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The trade deadline passed earlier this week without Houston moving WR Will Fuller and that should be music to the ears of Watson. Even RB David Johnson, who has been a virtual non-factor for the Texans this season, could have a big day against a Jags defense that has been getting torched by opposing backs in recent weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has been dropping since word broke that the 49ers would be without a number of key cogs on the offensive side of the football due to COVID-19 protocols. Of course, San Francisco was already going to be missing many other players due to injuries, including QB Jimmy Garroppolo, TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel - the list goes on and on. I actually feel the total has shifted too low. The Packers offense should absolutely feast in this contest, even as that unit deals with key injuries of its own including one to RB Aaron Jones who I believe is unlikely to play again this week. QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed plenty of success this season and should pick apart an injury-ravaged 49ers defense that has shown no semblance of a pass rush here in 2020. On the flip side, the Packers defense is nothing special and has been repeatedly torched by opposing running games. The 49ers are depleted at the running back position, but should still be able to gain some traction against what is quite simply one of the league's worst run defenses. Look for RB Jerick McKinnon to step up in the absence of San Francisco's household names out of the backfield. Likewise, Niners QB Nick Mullens always seems to play with a chip on his shoulder and provided he can stay away from CB Jaire Alexander, he should be able to move the football and ultimately put points on the board for his squad. This may not be a true shootout, but I do expect it to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This week has featured a pair of primetime NFL stinkers with the Falcons outlasting the Panthers in a dull affair on Thursday and the Eagles pulling away from the Cowboys in a football horror show last night. Call me crazy, but I think we may see an entertaining affair between the Bucs and Giants on Monday night. Tampa is in a bit of a tough scheduling spot here, traveling back across the country after posting back-to-back wins over the Packers and Raiders. The Bucs have a big divisional showdown with the Saints on tap this coming Sunday so maybe they park the bus if they build a lead in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants have had an extended week of practice since falling by a single point in Philadelphia a week ago Thursday. New York has very little upside at this time but I will point to a couple of positives. The Giants run defense has been stout and they certainly don't face an intimidating opponent in that sense here. They've also gotten healthier in their receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd back in the mix to compliment Darius Slayton, who has enjoyed a career year so far. The betting majority should be all over the Bucs in this one but we'll go the other way and grab the points with a G-Men squad that has rarely gotten blown out over the course of its 1-6 start. Take New York (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a fairly obvious play but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. We should see the Eagles defense absolutely feast on an overmatched Cowboys offense here. There's little reason to expect any sort of surprise breakout performance from rookie QB Ben DiNucci - the Cowboys true third-string option under center. He should be under duress against a fierce Eagles pass rush all night long, setting up the potential for plenty of short fields for the Philadelphia offense. For at least this week, we should see the Eagles offense take flight. We saw positive signs in last week's come-from-behind victory over the Giants (we missed with Philly in that game). Now with an extended week of practice, look for them to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys stop-unit. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure where all the points are going to come from in this game. Yes, the Colts should be able to move the football on the ground against a weak Lions run defense but can QB Philip Rivers move the ball consistently through the air? I envision a lot of long, clock-churning drives from the Colts here. Meanwhile, the Indy defense should feast on an average Lions offense. The Colts are giving up less than 3.5 yards per rush this season and are expected to get LB Darius Leonard back to boost their mid-level pass defense. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it as the Titans head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. After their comeback fell just short against the Steelers last Sunday (we won with Pittsburgh in that game), the Titans should explode against an awful Bengals defense here. Cincinnati isn't doing anything to slow opposing running games which opens the door for a big day from Titans RB Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, they're not applying nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable. Likewise, Tennessee can't seem to get to the quarterback, which should spell trouble as it lined up against a steadily-improving and confident rookie QB Joe Burrow. The Bengals by no means possess an elite offense, but they are running a ton of plays and should be able to expose a bad Titans defense here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49 | 25-17 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'm shocked that we're able to play a total south of 50 points in this Thursday night divisional showdown. Perhaps I shouldn't be. After all, these two teams combined to score just 39 points in their meeting earlier this season, and that took place in the friendly dome confines of Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as neither defense brings any sort of confidence to the table and certainly doesn't match up well with the opposing offense. We've seen Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater really settle into his offense over the last several weeks and now he gets a smash spot against a Falcons defense that doesn't get after the quarterback and is only average in virtually every department. On the flip side, the Falcons offense should be able to 'let it fly' against an undermanned, struggling Panthers defense. Last Sunday in New Orleans, the Panthers got shredded by an inconsistent Drew Brees, allowing a 118.4 QB rating and sacking him just once. Falcons QB Matt Ryan should thrive in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This will be pegged as a defensive showdown between two upper-echelon NFC teams with the Bears checking in at 5-1 and the Rams 4-2. I see this as a bit of a flat spot for Chicago coming off back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Panthers. I simply feel the Bears may be in line for a stinker has as the matchup doesn't set up favorably. The Rams are certainly comfortable playing here at So-Fi Stadium where they've gone a perfect 2-0 and allowed just 26 points in the process. The Bears defense has certainly been stout, but not quite so dominant on the road where they've allowed over 21 points per game. That number shoots up to 24.5 points per contest in domes, where they weren't nearly as stingy in Detroit and Atlanta earlier this season. Simply put, Chicago is a team built for a outdoor environment in my opinion, on both sides of the football. I'm not expecting any sort of resurgence from Bears QB Nick Foles against a fierce Rams defense. He has by all accounts struggled since taking over the reins from an ineffective Mitchell Trubisky. The Rams have shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey to blanket Chicago's lone true offensive star in WR Allen Robinson. While Los Angeles does give up plenty of yardage on the ground, I'm not convinced Bears RB David Montgomery can hit paydirt here as he has just one touchdown to his credit this season. Rams QB Jared Goff once again won't be asked to do a whole lot, but he'll do enough to get the Rams the win and cover. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I continue to believe that the Raiders victory in Kansas City two weeks ago will ultimately prove to be the high point of their season. This is a nightmarish matchup for Vegas with a possible COVID outbreak moving the game from primetime to the late afternoon window. Note that the Raiders will be welcoming a Bucs squad that seems to be getting better (on both sides of the football) with each passing week. Tampa Bay now has an elite-level defense and should feast on a Raiders offense led by mistake-prone and tentative QB Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense is set to explode against a weak, undermanned Raiders defense. This game has blowout potential despite the relatively short pointspread. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bills -10 v. Jets | 18-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's absolutely no reason to jump off the Jets fade bus at this point as the Bills find themselves in fantastic bounce-back position against punchless Gang Green on Sunday afternoon. We've seen Buffalo's worst over the last two weeks, even if it did hang tough against the Chiefs this past Monday night. Here, we should see the Bills offense absolutely shred a Jets defense that has essentially checked out on the season. On the flip side, the Buffalo defense takes a huge step down in class after facing two of the NFL's best offenses in the Titans and Chiefs. New York's offense is going nowhere with QB Joe Flacco at the helm. While I actually like the matchup for the Jets running game against the Bills, that won't be enough to keep them within arm's reach for four quarters. This could very well be the spot where the Bills do pin back their ears and stiffen up against the run and if that happens this is an absolute rout. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Packers in this clear bounce-back spot against the Texans on Sunday. Green Bay absolutely laid an egg last Sunday afternoon in Tampa, falling in blowout fashion against the Bucs. Of course, they were facing one of the league's best defenses in that game. Here, they'll be going up against one of the worst. The Texans are giving up nearly six yards per rush on the ground and haven't been much better against opposing passing games. Expect Aaron Rodgers and co. to have a field day at NRG Stadium. Meanwhile, the Houston offense had plenty of success last week in Tennessee (we won with the 'over' in that game) but should find the sledding a little tougher here as the Packers have actually been tough on opposing quarterbacks. The Texans had a bit of upside following the Bill O'Brien firing, but that's gone now. I like the Packers to cover the short number. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Few teams are having as much fun as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who check in a perfect 5-0 on the season, matching the record of the team they'll face on Sunday - the Tennessee Titans. I'll give the Steelers the nod here as they match up well against Tennessee in a number of areas. First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better run defense than that of the Steelers. If any team can at least slow down the beast that is Titans RB Derrick Henry, it's the Steelers. Take away Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill obviously becomes far less effective. LT Taylor Lewan will certainly be a key absence on the Titans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Titans defense, while carrying a very positive reputation, has struggled for much of the campaign. Tennessee has been particularly weak against the run, giving up over five yards per rush and five touchdowns to enemy backs. That absolutely opens the door for a steadily-evolving Pittsburgh offense that has quietly been excelling across the board. Both of these teams are legitimate AFC title contenders, but the Steelers get the edge here as we approach the midway point of the regular season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 5 pm et on Monday. The reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. I don't believe the Bills defense, which was severely overrated early in the season, can keep the Chiefs at bay for four quarters on Monday night, nor do I believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to avoid the mistakes that will ultimately result in a lopsided Chiefs victory. Kansas City suffered a clear letdown last Sunday as it wasn't sharp in any facet of the game in a loss to the Raiders. That one stung. Now the Chiefs have had extra time to stew on that loss and I look for them to come up big on Monday in Buffalo. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine since their lower-scoring than expected season-opener against the Rams in Los Angeles and there's little reason to jump off the train here. The Giants offense has obviously struggled in the absence of RB Saquon Barkley but there's some reason for optimism as they face an absolutely putrid Cowboys offense on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should feast on a Giants defense that has yet to face an offense like that of Dallas this season. This Cowboys offense is on a record-setting pace and the G-Men will be hard-pressed to come up with answers. With that being said, the 'Boys are single-digit favorites (at the time of writing) for a reason and we could see a competitive game here. That lends itself to a high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for the Cardinals, who have largely been a disappointment to this point. With the Jets getting torched for over 4.5 yards per rush look for the Cards to go back to basics offensively and lean on their ground attack here. That should serve to open things up for QB Kyler Murray, whose best days almost certainly lie ahead of him following a tough start to the season. The Jets have literally zero upside at this point and this could very well be Adam Gase's final game as head coach. If they weren't able to keep up with the Brett Rypien-led Broncos last Thursday night, they're unlikely to stick with Kliff Kingsbury's Cards here. With veteran statue QB Joe Flacco taking over under center, Arizona will have no excuses for not containing a below average Jets offense. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the suddenly red hot Panthers roll into town to face the Falcons. Carolina should continue to thrive offensively against a Falcons defense that proven stout against the run but simply can't stop the pass - which has essentially been par for the course in recent years. The Panthers boast an underrated stable of wide receivers led by Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and should dominate an injury-riddled Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is also dealing with some injuries but is expected to have WR Calvin Ridley on the field on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers haven't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all so Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have a much easier time than we saw in Monday's ugly loss to the Packers. There's a big difference between facing the Pack at Lambeau Field and hosting the Panthers in the Dome. Even Todd Gurley and the Falcons backfield could have a day on Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Bucs wild, high-scoring win over the Chargers last Sunday but did manage to cash the 'under' in the Bears blowout loss to the Colts. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as these two 3-1 teams do battle. Playing on a short week the Bucs are in tough with a number of key cogs banged up on offense. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have both shown some good chemistry with Tom Brady in the early going but now both are sidelined. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's backfield continues to deal with a number of injuries as well. Of course they'll be up against an above average Bears defense, on the road no less, on a short week. I have very little faith in the Nick Foles-led Bears offense right now and if you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm high on the Bucs defense. Note that Tampa Bay is giving up just 2.4 yards per rush this season and that really hamstrings a struggling Bears offense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's really no one all that imposing on the Chicago offense. This has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Green Bay at 8:50 pm et on Monday. This is the being pegged as an explosive shootout by the oddsmakers and I tend to agree. The Falcons have to be in desperation mode at this point and they do draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Packers defense. The strength of Atlanta is obviously in its offense and while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are questionable to play I would bank on one, if not both of the Falcons offense stars suiting up. It may not even matter as Atlanta should find success moving the football on the ground as well with Green Bay having allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Packers offense is red hot entering this matchup and should face little resistance from a non-existent Falcons defense. Note that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has absolutely eviscerated the Falcons lately, passing for over 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last four games against them. He loses WR Allen Lazard but should have superstar Davante Adams back on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While scoring is up across the league through the first three weeks of the season, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. The Colts should continue to pound away on the ground behind standout rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers has been relegated to 'game manager' status in the latter stages of his career and he should be firmly planted in that role against a solid Bears defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense will turn to QB Nick Foles after he rallied the team to a come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Don't count on another sharp performance from Foles here as he faces an above average but perhaps still underrated Colts defense. We won with the 'over' in the Bears victory over the Falcons last week, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs defense remains an underrated unit, perhaps overshadowed by the team's star-laden offense. Note that the Bucs run defense is allowing under three yards per rush this season. Here, I look for the Tampa Bay defense to dominate a struggling Chargers offense led by rookie QB Justin Herbert. Los Angeles' 2020 campaign pretty much got derailed before it started due to a number of key injuries on both sides of the football. Coming off a discouraging home loss to the Panthers last week there's little reason to anticipate a big bounce-back performance, particularly from the Chargers offense, here. Look for the Bucs to continue to pound away long, clock churning drives on their way to a third straight victory, helping cash 'under' tickets in the process. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings narrow 31-30 home loss to the Titans last week and I'll go right back to the well with the same play as Minnesota travels to face the reeling Texans on Sunday afternoon. This is another prime blow-up spot for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook as he faces a Houston defense that has been shredded for nearly six yards per rush this season. Even QB Kirk Cousins is set up for success given the Texans complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. On the flip side, the Texans finally catch a scheduling break here after a tough three-game slate to open the season (Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers). The Vikings defense is a shell of its former self due to injuries and offseason departures. Like the Houston defense, Minnesota hasn't been able to get to opposing quarterbacks and figures to struggle against big-time playmaker QB DeShaun Watson in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Ravens -13 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Ravens, who obviously have a bad taste in their mouths following Monday's dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs. Washington has been competitive in two of its three games this season, even winning one of them (we cashed with Washington in its Week 1 win over Philadelphia), but there have been some major red flags raised over the last two weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins is looking less and less like the answer for this offense, although he hasn't had much help from his supporting cast outside of WR Terry McLaurin. Here, he faces an elite Baltimore defense that is far better than it showed against Kansas City's 'next-level' offense on Monday night. The Ravens offense is in position to roll against a suddenly injury-plagued Washington defense that lost Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young last Sunday. Note that Washington has allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through three games this season. Its secondary is arguably its weakest point and I'm confident Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will take full advantage of that leaky back-end in this one. With their next game coming at home against the winless Bengals next week, there's no reason for the Ravens to look past Washington. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets +1 | 37-28 | Loss | -113 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll plug my nose and back the Jets in this Thursday night stinker. The Broncos carried some optimism into training camp back in August but let's face it, injuries have completely derailed their season. While this is a winnable game, I'm not convinced Denver has the personnel to do it. Note that Broncos quarterbacks have gotten absolutely crushed through three games - sacked a combined 13 times. Now they turn to inexperienced Brett Rypien, who doesn't figure to fare much better behind a leaky offensive line. Meanwhile, the Broncos injury-ravaged defense has done little to slow opposing quarterbacks, allowing a 68% completion percentage and forcing just one interception compared to seven touchdowns. With WR Jamison Crowder expected back on the field, I do look for Jets QB Sam Darnold to make a last stand, so to speak, and perhaps save his head coach Adam Gase's job (for one week anyway). Take New York (10*). |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -170 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore (moneyline) over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not often I release plays on the moneyline, but here I believe it is warranted. I actually expect this price to become more favorable as kickoff approaches on Monday as we should see some money come in on the underdog Chiefs - a rare opportunity to back Kansas City at a plus-money return. I'll go the other way as I'm confident the Ravens will 'hold serve' in this their third meeting with the Chiefs over the last 2+ seasons. The Chiefs took the two previous matchups but both of those were played in Kansas City. The two victories came by a combined eight points. Note that the Ravens managed to score 52 points in those two losses and arguably have an even more cohesive offensive unit here in 2020. There's not a lot to say that hasn't already been said when it comes to the Chiefs offense. They're the defending Super Bowl champions for a reason. However, this will obviously be their toughest test of the young season to date as they face an absolutely loaded Ravens defense. In fact, you could argue that Baltimore's defense has been built to beat the likes of Kansas City. Here, I look for that 'D' to come up with enough big plays to ultimately hold off Patrick Mahomes and the mighty Chiefs. Take Baltimore moneyline (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Broncos for making things interesting against the Steelers last Sunday. In fact, Denver checks into this one sporting a perfect 2-0 ATS record. I don't expect the Broncos to make it three straight ATS victories here, however, as this is a nightmarish matchup, even at home. The Bucs got on track with a sloppy but generally lopsided win over the Panthers last Sunday. I do expect them to sharpen things up on both sides of the football, but particularly on offense as the season progresses. This is a true smash spot for their offense against a Broncos defense that has simply been decimated by injuries. Offensively, Denver is forced to turn to Jeff Driskel in a starting role after Drew Lock went down last week. Not only that but Driskel won't have elite WR Courtland Sutton to work with as he's injured as well. There's just little reason to have any optimism that the Broncos can sustain drives or consistently put points on the board, particularly against an underrated Bucs defense that has done a nice job of handling the Saints and Panthers through two games. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Jets v. Colts -11 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Colts on Sunday as they welcome the hapless Jets to Indy. Despite facing an injury-decimated 49ers squad, the Jets still went out and embarrassed themselves last Sunday, thankfully without their fans in the stadium. Now they draw a more unfavorable matchup as they travel to face a Colts squad that 'got right' in last week's rout of the Vikings. The Indy defense should absolutely feast on an undermanned Jets offense here. The Colts enter this game ranking third in the NFL in sacks with seven and should take advantage of a Jets o-line that is missing its anchor, C Connor McGovern. With the Jets giving up five yards per rush this season they're unlikely to slow the quickly-ascending rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers isn't much more than a game-manager at this stage of his career, although I will point out that his numbers would look a little better were it not for a key T.Y. Hilton drop that would have resulted in a long touchdown last week. Here, look for the Colts to take care of the football on offense, capitalize on a number of short fields afforded by their defense and win in convincing fashion. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -4.5 | 23-23 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bengals in each of the last two weeks but were certainly fortunate to do so last week as Joe Burrow led his team on a late backdoor-clinching touchdown drive in Cleveland. There are obviously going to be some growing pains in Cincy, despite all of Burrow's upside. Here, I look for the Bengals to get blown out by what will be an extremely motivated 0-2 Eagles squad. Philadelphia has drawn a pair of tough matchups to open the campaign considering its injury-ravaged offensive line. Not surprisingly, QB Carson Wentz has taken a beating. The good news here is that the Bengals don't have much of a pass rush, having recorded just two sacks through their first two games. Look for Wentz to enjoy a solid 'get right' performance here while RB Miles Sanders takes care of the rest after shaking off the rust last Sunday. I'll gladly take the discount being offered to back the superior team in this matchup. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns UNDER 45 | 20-34 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns are going to have to show me a little more consistency before I start believing in their offense. They exploded against the Bengals last week but that shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Cincinnati boasts one of the league's weakest defenses and the game was played on a short week. Here, Cleveland will face a Washington defense that can get after the quarterback. The Washington offense got stuck in the mud last Sunday in Arizona, only managing a couple of late touchdown scores (and failed two-point conversions that cost us our 'over' ticket). The jury is still out on QB Dwayne Haskins. We did see Washington's offense put up some points in Week 1 but that was only thanks to their defense setting them up with short field after short field in the second half. I don't believe we'll see the Washington pass rush obliterate a solid Cleveland offensive line the way it did Philadelphia in that contest. Look for Baker Mayfield to take a backseat to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this one as the Browns control the game flow and ultimately churn away the clock in a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. When you think Titans and Vikings the first thing that comes to mind might not be 'shootout' but I believe that's precisely what we're in for on Sunday afternoon. It's desperation time for the Vikings after suffering back-to-back beatdowns at the hands of the Packers and Colts. The good news is this matchup could play right into their struggling offense's hands - or more specifically the legs of RB Dalvin Cook. The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in the early going this season, allowing a whopping 5.15 yards per rush to enemy backs. Here, we can expect them to have their hands full stopping Cook, while also missing some key cogs in their secondary, improving the chances of WR Adam Thielen going off. On the flip side, the injury-plagued Vikings defense isn't likely to slow an underrated Titans offense. Without DE Danielle Hunter the Vikes haven't shown any semblance of a pass rush and a clean pocket should serve Ryan Tannehill well in this one. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry should find plenty of room to run against a Vikes front that will be without LB Anthony Barr. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48 | 31-13 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a relatively high total for a reason in this one. I'm anticipating an entertaining Thursday night affair between the lowly Dolphins and Jaguars. Miami catches its most favorable matchup of the season to date after facing the Patriots and Bills in its first two contests. The Jaguars were assumed to be 'tanking' this season having ushered out virtually all of their defensive talent. I still consider Jacksonville to have one of the league's worst defenses, even if it has held up fairly well through two games. Keep in mind, the Jags have drawn the Colts and Titans - two very average offensive teams - in their first two games. They get a below average offense in the Dolphins on Thursday, but I actually feel Miami has some upside here - at least offensively. I don't expect Miami to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football against a Jags defense that has proven to be capable of stopping the run. Instead look for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to sling the football all over the field against a very beatable Jacksonville secondary. Of course, Jags QB Gardner Minshew isn't one to back down from a challenge. Look for him to rise to the occasion in this primetime affair as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The two previous primetime games this week have both sailed 'over' the total. This is probably the game that most believed would have the most shootout potential of the three primetime affairs. I'm actually anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. The Saints should be able to take away the Raiders offensive strength in this one and that's RB Josh Jacobs. New Orleans was able to stymie Tampa's ground attack a week ago while the Raiders torched a bottom-tier Panthers run defense. Here the Saints should be able to flip the script on Las Vegas. While the Raiders defense is average at best and would generally have its hands full with the likes of the Saints, here I actually feel they can find some success. New Orleans certainly didn't appear to be in midseason form offensively last Sunday and now has to deal with the absence of all-world WR Michael Thomas. While RB Alvin Kamara should get his in this one, I don't see this as a true smash spot for the Saints offense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Ravens -7 v. Texans | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Ravens last Sunday as they annihilated the overmatched Browns. After Cleveland showed some life on Thursday night, that win looks all the more impressive. Now Baltimore heads to Houston to face a Texans squad that I feel could turn out to be a punching bag this season. It's only a matter of time before Bill O'Brien's time is up in H-Town and this game should accelerate that clock. The Ravens run-oriented attack should absolutely feast on a Texans defense that was torched for 168 yards by the Chiefs backfield last week. Meanwhile, the Houston secondary is in shambles and should have no answers for the Ravens capable wide receiving corps. QB Deshaun Watson has to be wondering what his future holds in Houston following the departure of WR DeAndre Hopkins. While Will Fuller can serve as a Hopkins clone in some ways, he's obviously injury-prone and can't carry the passing game all on his own. The Ravens are positively loaded on the defensive side of the football and already proved they could contain Watson in last year's meeting. There's little reason to expect anything different this time around as it should only be a matter of time before Baltimore stretches out the margin. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 48 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. While I do expect both offenses to have some success moving the football in this game, I also expect plenty of stalled drives, or drives resulting in field goals rather than touchdowns. The real key here is the Chargers offense and whether they can stay on the field long enough to keep Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes off of it. I believe they can. We saw last week that this Chargers offense will be a little different than the one we saw with Phillip Rivers at the helm. I do believe QB Tyrod Taylor can get out and run a little bit on this Chiefs defense, and I also like the Chargers stable of running backs led by Austin Ekeler and rookie Joshua Kelley. The problem for L.A. might be finishing drives with the Chiefs owning a considerable advantage in terms of their pass rush, and the potential of bull-rushing the Chargers o-line which will be missing its anchor, center Mike Pouncey. Look for the L.A. defense, even without a couple of key cogs, to do just enough to contain Mahomes and company to help keep this one 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 51 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. First off, it's worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 18-1-1 ATS in the Chiefs last 20 regular season games. Here, I certainly expect to see the Chiefs prevail and with that being said, I'm confident they can cover the somewhat lofty number. While the Chargers have shown the ability to contain Patrick Mahomes in previous meetings, I'm not sure they're going to have any answers for the Chiefs ground game led by super rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I'm also not convinced Los Angeles will be able to finish enough drives with 7's on the board against a still-underrated Chiefs defense that's strength lies in its pass rush. Keep in mind, the Chargers will be without their o-line anchor in center Mike Pouncey for this one. That opens the door for the Chiefs front seven to get into the backfield with consistency in this one. The Chargers are in a state of change offensively going from immobile QB Phillip Rivers to the agile Tyrod Taylor. As we saw last Sunday, this is a unit that will likely go through some growing pains in the early going and I don't see this as an ideal matchup for them to move to 2-0 on the campaign. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals OVER 46.5 | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a sneaky shootout in the late window of games on Sunday afternoon. We had a close eye on Washington last Sunday, cashing both the side and total in its upset win over Philadelphia. Here, I look for Washington find some continued success offensively with WR Terry McLaurin in line for a 2020 breakout game matched up against Patrick Peterson. While RB Antonio Gibson didn't get off to the start that most had hoped for, he should play a role against a beatable Cardinals run defense here. The Washington pass rush absolutely feasted on the Eagles decimated offensive line last Sunday. Here, I look for QB Kyler Murray to take advantage of Washington's aggressiveness in the pass rush to get out of the pocket and find his targets downfield if need be. WR DeAndre Hopkins showed tremendous chemistry with Murray in the opener and the duo should build on that performance here. Meanwhile, I consider the Cards to have one of the most underrated RB combos in the league in Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. Look for them to find plenty of open field in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Broncos v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the 'under', even with the low posted total in this one on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are playing on a short week following a unique training camp that included no preseason games. The Broncos are a lower-tier offensive team to begin with and are dealing with a number of key injuries, including those to key players WR Courtland Sutton and RB Philip Lindsay. I look for them to employ a rather conservative offense against an aggressive Steelers defense here. While the Broncos defense isn't what it once was, missing a number of key players from recent squads, it can still play well, as we saw this past Monday night against the Titans. In that contest, the Broncos held up well against one of the league's toughest running backs in Derrick Henry, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. The Steelers offense has a lot of upside with a healthy Big Ben under center, but it may not have to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters in a projected one-sided affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. We successfully faded New York in Monday's blowout loss to the Steelers but this is a fine bounce-back spot. Look for RB Saquon Barkley in particular to feast on what appears to be a bottom-tier Bears run defense. Chicago gave up 150+ total yards against the Lions below average stable of running backs last Sunday. After turning in the worst performance of his career to date, Barkley should be the focal point of the G-Men offense here. Credit Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears for rallying from a big fourth quarter deficit in Detroit last week but that had more to do with the Lions ineptitude than anything else. I look for Trubisky to struggle, even in a favorable matchup against a very average Giants defense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's nothing all that imposing about the Bears offense. Take New York (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Bills -5.5 v. Dolphins | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Dolphins certainly have bright days ahead, it's going to continue to be a slog here in the early going this season. Miami made a new-look Patriots squad look awfully good last Sunday. I expect more of the same against a superior Bills team this week. Buffalo should absolutely have its way with a very beatable Dolphins defense. QB Josh Allen should absolutely be able to replicate Pats QB Cam Newton's performance against Miami as he possesses similar tools. Note that Miami gave up a whopping 217 rushing yards in last week's loss. It's only a matter of time before the Fins turn to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, with the whispers getting a whole lot louder following vet Ryan Fitzpatrick's three-interception performance last Sunday. Buffalo boasts a truly elite defense and should have little trouble containing a banged-up Dolphins offense here. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1 | 37-19 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. We successfully faded the Eagles in last Sunday's loss in Washington but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they return home to host the Rams this week. Philadelphia is expected to get some key cogs back on the field this week in the form of pass rush specialists Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham and right tackle Lane Johnson. If all three can play, that would be a huge boost to a team that is desperate for a strong bounce-back performance. RB Miles Sanders' absence was certainly felt in last Sunday's loss as well and all indications are he'll be back to full strength and on the field this week. I don't have a lot of faith in Rams QB Jared Goff, even after last week's strong showing against the Cowboys. This is a tougher matchup as Goff has traditionally struggled away from home. Despite their myriad of injuries, the Eagles still managed to hold the Washington Football Team to just north of two yards per rush in last week's loss. If the Rams can't get their ground game going here, I expect Goff to have a long afternoon. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no question we're dealing with a high posted total in this one but it's high for a reason. I'm expecting a shootout. The Falcons draw a favorable matchup here, at least as far as their offense goes. The Cowboys only gave up 20 points in last week's loss to the Rams but the damage could have been much worse. Dallas is now even more undermanned after losing elite LB Leighton Vander Esch. Their secondary is a weak point, one that the Falcons should be able to take full advantage of. Even against a tough Seahawks pass defense last week, Falcons WR Julio Jones came up with 150+ yards receiving. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was under duress for much of the game against the Rams last week. We should see a different story unfold here, however, as the Falcons pass rush. While Atlanta has been tough against the run in recent years, it has had little success stopping the pass or containing opposing quarterbacks that can scramble. That plays right into the hands of Prescott and the up-tempo Cowboys offense, which should feast in its home-opener. After a relatively quiet opening week, look for the ultra-talented Dallas receiving corps to put up big numbers here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -8 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers blew an excellent opportunity to earn a much-needed opening week win last Sunday against the Raiders (given their tough early season schedule they could be staring down an awful start). Here, I look for them to get blown out at the hands of a hungry Bucs squad. Tampa Bay fell short in last week's showdown with the Saints, largely due to the inept play of its offense. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about the Bucs underrated defense, which held the Saints to just 6.4 yards per play last Sunday, picking up right where it left off following a red hot finish to last season. The Panthers offense obviously revolves around RB Christian McCaffrey but there's reason to believe he could be held in check here after Tampa Bay completely shut him down in both meetings last season. The Bucs offense looked out of sync in Tom Brady's debut last Sunday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot, however, as the Panthers own one of the league's weakest defenses. The Raiders torched the Panthers for 34 points last Sunday. You know your defense has a problem when you're giving up nearly double-digit yards per play against QB Derek Carr. While Bucs WR Chris Godwin could miss this game after entering concussion protocol mid-week, this is very much a receiving corps by committee and I expect Tampa's wealth of pass-catchers to pick up the slack in his possible absence. I don't need to tell you that Tom Brady's motivation level will be sky-high (it always is) after getting somewhat called out by head coach Bruce Arians. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I can understand why the Browns are being favored by nearly a touchdown in this game - after all, this is a huge motivational spot for them coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Ravens (we won with Baltimore in that game) in the national spotlight against a division opponent they 'should' handle. I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot as the Bengals showed me enough in a difficult matchup to support them for a second consecutive week. Give Bengals QB Joe Burrow a lot of credit for hanging in there against a very tough Chargers defense last Sunday. Highlights obviously included his touchdown run and his near game-tying (or winning) drive at the end of the fourth quarter. There was plenty to build off of following that performance and I'm confident we'll see him find more success against the Browns here. I also look for a big bounce-back performance from RB Joe Mixon who was relatively ineffective and even lost a fumble (his first since 2016). The Browns are a mess, and have been since the start of last season. While I do like their ground attack and feel they can have considerable success running the football against the Bengals non-existent run defense, I'm not sure QB Baker Mayfield has the composure to avoid a couple of costly mistakes that ultimately keeps this game within arm's reach for the Bengals. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Titans -3 v. Broncos | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Denver at 10:10 pm et on Monday. This game has blowout potential with the Broncos ill-equipped to handle the Titans underrated offense or claw their way back into contention should they fall behind early. Of course, Denver suffered a major blow with the season-ending ankle injury to Von Miller last week. The Broncos were already going to be undermanned defensively before Miller went down due to a number of defections on that side of the football during the offseason. Expect RB Derrick Henry to have a field day against the Broncos once-vaunted 'D'. Offensively, the Broncos have a new coordinator, not to mention an inexperienced quarterback who will be making just his sixth career NFL start - and he'll be doing so potentially without his top target in WR Courtland Sutton. While I do like the upside of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, Hamler is dealing with an injury and Jeudy didn't exactly receive rave reviews during training camp. Maybe the Broncos will elect to go run-heavy but I suspect they'll only be banging their heads against the wall versus a stout Titans defense. Tennessee should be able to pin back its ears and get after QB Drew Lock all night long. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New York at 7:15 pm et on Monday. This really is a tough opening week matchup for the Giants as they try to turn the page on what has been a tough era of G-Men football. The Steelers are reloaded for another run with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. All indications are that his arm is back at full strength as he looks to get the Pittsburgh offense back on track following a tumultuous 2019 campaign. Roethlisberger should feast on a Giants pass defense that was absolutely horrendous last season and doesn't figure to improve here in 2020. Even if Big Ben doesn't dominate, the Steelers should enjoy plenty of success on the ground against a New York defense that gave up just shy of 150 rush yards per game last season. There were signs of life in the Giants offense with rookie Daniel Jones at the helm last season. Of course, it helps that he has RB Saquon Barkley in the backfield but I question how much running room he'll find against the teeth of the Steelers defense. Meanwhile, the G-Men boast a below average group of wide receivers that won't instill much fear at all in the Steelers secondary. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | 17-20 | Loss | -116 | 83 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While I do lean to the Cowboys minus the points as well, I feel the 'over' is the better way to go in this Sunday night NFC showdown in Los Angeles. The Cowboys offense is well-positioned to get off to a tremendous start in this favorable matchup with the Rams. While Los Angeles has been considered an elite defensive team at times in recent years and boasts plenty of star power with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, it will need to replace a number of key cogs from last year's team and also has to adjust to a new system under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Cowboys offense is obviously loaded with elite talent at all the skill positions. Defensively, the Cowboys pass rush could wreak havoc against an overmatched Rams offensive line. But even if QB Jared Goff is given a little bit of time in the pocket he should have no trouble exposing what I consider to be one of the league's weaker secondaries. Even without fans, at home in a brand new stadium I don't see the Rams getting embarrassed in this one, and neither team will shy away from a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 48 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This total has been on the rise since opening, and rightfully so in my opinion. Arizona's offense is poised to take off here in year two of Kyler Murray's tenure as starting QB. The Cardinals made arguably the biggest offseason splash by acquiring WR DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans and I expect him to have a positive impact right out of the gates, even after dealing with injury issues this summer. Speaking of injuries, the 49ers defense was also forced to deal with some key ones during training camp. I'm not sure we'll see San Fran's defense firing on all cylinders here in Week 1. With issues on their offensive line, don't count on the 49ers ground game to obliterate the Cardinals defensive front on Sunday. With that being said, that might just force QB Jimmy Garoppolo to take a few more shots down the field. Keep in mind, he completed better than 75% of his passes for eight touchdowns in two meetings with the Cardinals a year ago and Arizona isn't likely to take a big step forward defensively this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm more than happy to grab the points with an underrated Bengals team hosting an overrated Chargers squad on Sunday afternoon. I'm not sure the Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers have any business traveling across the country and being favored in this matchup. With issues on their offensive line and an unproven ground attack (Austin Ekeler is a terrific RB but more of a pass-catcher than runner), I believe they'll have trouble chewing up clock and ultimately putting this game to bed. It remains to be seen how effective Bengals QB Joe Burrow can be in his NFL debut against a tough defense but I'm confident he can do just enough (and not make the critical game-changing mistakes) to lead the Bengals to victory. I don't believe the Chargers bring any sort of intimidation factor to the table here, especially after losing one of their best defensive players in SS Derwin James to injury. The Chargers are still absolutely loaded with talent on defense but in today's NFL, that's rarely enough. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think it's a pretty good bet that few recreational players will want any part of the Washington Football Team on Sunday afternoon. After all, it was a truly tumultuous offseason in the nation's capital. With that being said, I believe this game is far closer to a pk'em than the oddsmakers are suggesting. Philadelphia isn't exactly on solid ground entering the new season. QB Carson Wentz was banged up throughout training camp and has major pass protection issues with two key cogs on the offensive line (Andre Dillard and Brandon Brooks) lost to injuries. It sets up a bit of a nightmarish situation against Washington's vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, I'm higher on Washington QB Dwayne Haskins than some. I believe he and last year's breakout star WR Terry McLaurin can do plenty of damage right out of the gate this season, particularly against the Eagles beatable secondary. Philadelphia's defense isn't nearly as fearsome with the likes of Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham out of the mix. Take Washington (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure the Ravens are getting quite enough credit for their regular season performance a year ago, or hype entering the new season (thanks in large part to the love-in for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs). Baltimore has the potential to be even better this year after shoring up its run defense and making some savvy additions on offense during the offseason. The Browns underwent a coaching overhaul following a disappointing 2019 campaign but I'm not sure it's going to result in immediate positive returns. This is quite simply an awful opening week matchup against a loaded Super Bowl contender that carries a big chip on its shoulder following last January's early playoff exit. The Browns are dealing with a number of injuries and absences on the defensive side of the football which should have QB Lamar Jackson licking his chops entering this contest. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the Week 1 board, as evidenced by the total sitting in the high-30's at the time of writing. Many have high hopes for the Bills offense with QB Josh Allen expected to take a step forward along with the addition of WR Stefon Diggs. The jury is still out on whether the Bills offense can be explosive through. I do expect them to orchestrate plenty of long drives against a relatively soft Jets defense here in Week 1. With that being said, I also believe New York can chew up some clock of its own with conservative play-calling against a Buffalo defense that can be dominant, but also yields to the short game in an effort to prevent big plays downfield. That's essentially why the Bills set up well as an 'under' team right out of the gates this season. With few gamebreakers on offense, Jets QB Sam Darnold will be forced into a game manager role on Sunday and that bodes well for the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Raiders and Panthers do battle in Carolina on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offense should absolutely feast on a Panthers defense that is missing a ton of talent from a year ago. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense had a tough enough time with all of that talent on hand last season. Now it has the potential to be the weakest defense in the entire league. The Raiders may not have an elite offense - the presence of QB Derek Carr virtually ensures that - but this is simply too good of a matchup not to succeed. Meanwhile, the Panthers will turn the page on the Cam Newton era with Teddy Bridgewater taking over under center. You can be sure he'll be motivated to perform now that he's finally grabbed a starting job. He has enough talent around him, including all world RB Christian McCaffrey, to get off to a strong start against a very beatable Raiders defense. Gone from Las Vegas are Prince Amukamara and Damarious Randall and while they did struggle at times, their experience will be missed in a new-look secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting this to be one of the uglier games on the Week 1 slate, but I'm not so easily convinced. I actually believe we'll see some offensive fireworks as these two familiar NFC East foes square off in Washington. Philadelphia is going to have to play fast on offense in an effort to circumvent its own offensive line issues against Washington's tremendous pass rush. The good news for the Eagles is that Washington's defensive back-end is average at best and I believe the opportunity will be there for Philadelphia's underrated pass-catching corps to come up with some big plays downfield. On the flip side, I'm higher on the Washington offense than most. QB Dwayne Haskins is poised to take a step forward after showing plenty of improvement down the stretch last year. While its WR corps isn't deep, it has a bonafide gamebreaker in Terry McLaurin. And don't sleep on RB Antonio Gibson making something out of nothing in the backfield. The Eagles may be known for their tough defense but they take a hit this year with a number of key cogs no longer in uniform, including Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two sudden AFC rivals in the last year, with the previous two resulting in wild, high-scoring affairs with the Texans winning the regular season matchup 31-24 and the Chiefs prevailing when it really mattered in the AFC Divisional Round, 51-31. There's little reason to expect anything other than another shootout as this unique 2020 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night. Yes, the Texans lost all-world WR DeAndre Hopkins, but the cupboard is by no means bare as they brought in the likes of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb to solidify the receiving corps. We can certainly expect Will Fuller to take a big step forward in Hopkins' absence, and this is a matchup he can feast on a Chiefs secondary that will be missing CB Bashaud Breeland - keeping in mind, this unit struggled at the best of times last season. Kansas City will also be without NT Mike Pennel, which should help open things up for the Texans ground attack which has been re-tooled with the addition of RB David Johnson. We know what we're going to get with the Chiefs electric offense. All of the key pieces are back and the addition of rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire could potentially make this unit even stronger. The Texans weren't able to get to opposing quarterbacks with any consistency last season and did little to help their own cause in the offseason. Look for QB Pat Mahomes to come out all guns blazing here as he feasts on a Texans secondary that is missing a key cog in CB Gareon Conley. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:25 pm et on Sunday February 2nd. Last year’s expected Super Bowl shootout between the Patriots and Rams fizzled but I expect a different story to unfold this year as the upstart 49ers take on the Chiefs in Miami. The hype surrounding the 49ers defense continues to build as this game approaches. Yes, the Niners have an elite defense across the board but I believe their aggressive nature (not necessarily in terms of their blitz packages, or lack thereof) may end up costing them in this particular matchup. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has re-emerged as a true running threat now that he has healed from multiple in-season injuries he suffered. That’s to say nothing of his ability to get the ball to his electric pass-catching corps. As good as the Niners are on defense, they’re unquestionably going to have their hands full on Sunday evening. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense really came into its own down the stretch and came up big when the chips were down in two playoff games – out of necessity mind you, after digging themselves early deficits in both of those contests. I’m just not sure the Niners are getting nearly enough credit for the creativity and explosiveness of their offense, which does match up well with the Chiefs defense here. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t filled up the stat sheet in these playoffs, but he hasn’t had to. Playing with big leads for much of those two wins over the Vikings and Packers, Garoppolo was limited to ‘game manager’ duty. Here, we should see him pressed into action and I’m confident he can orchestrate some big plays downfield with his highly-underrated group of pass-catchers. Last year’s dud notwithstanding, the Super Bowl has delivered many exciting, high-scoring affairs in recent years and I’m anticipating another instant classic on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 226 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over San Francisco at 6:30 pm et on Sunday February 2nd. I'm holding futures tickets on the Chiefs so this is really a no-brainer for me. There's nothing I've seen in the playoffs that has swayed me from the fact that Kansas City is destined to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy on February 2nd. Yes, San Francisco has impressed and is without a doubt the 'it team' entering this contest - a true upstart that has reached this point far quicker than most expected under the guidance of head coach Kyle Shanahan. I'll give the Niners all the credit in the world for getting here, but let's not get too excited by playoff home wins over extremely flawed Vikings and Packers squads that simply didn't show up in Santa Clara. There's no question, the Niners will get the Chiefs best effort here. Kansas City has been steadily building to this point, with its defense showing up when it matters most and QB Patrick Mahomes taking his game to a completely other level in the postseason. Everything has broke right for the Chiefs in the playoffs with the Ravens getting upset by the Titans, even though I do believe Kansas City would have went into Baltimore and won regardless. Give me the Chiefs at a very discounted number here. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-19-20 | Packers +8 v. 49ers | 20-37 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over San Francisco at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. Few are giving the Packers much of a chance here but I will. Green Bay got routed by San Francisco in its regular season meeting but I expect a much stronger performance from the Packers here. I find it a big surprising that the 49ers are actually laying more points in this matchup - a tougher one in my opinion - than they were against the Vikings last week. The Seahawks were a popular pick last week and the Packers managed to outlast them. Don't be surprised if we see a similar story unfold here as QB Aaron Rodgers writes another chapter in his storied career with a big performance against the Niners. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Even after the Chiefs were involved in an 82-point game against Houston last week, I don't believe the oddsmakers have set the total high enough in this weekend's showdown with upstart Tennessee. RB Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans against a Chiefs defense you can certainly run on, particularly if run-stuffing DT Chris Jones can't go, as expected to be the case. But I don't believe nearly enough people are giving QB Ryan Tannehill any shot at keeping up with Pat Mahomes should this turn into a shootout. I'm actually confidence that Tannehill, who has been one of the league's most efficient passers down the stretch this season, can consistently move the football through the air, and come up with a handful of explosive plays should the Chiefs elect to sell out to slow down Henry. On the flip side, Tennessee doesn't generate nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to give it any hope that it can contain Mahomes in this one. As we saw in last week's game, albeit against an inferior defense, this Chiefs offense is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. If the Titans come into this game thinking they can turn it into a slugfest, I think they will be sorely mistaken. I'm anticipating a shootout, just as we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Green Bay at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Seahawks in this one as I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these familiar NFC foes. Seattle checked all the boxes in last week's mild upset win in Philadelphia and should be well-positioned to continue its march toward the Super Bowl on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. RB Marshawn Lynch is only going to get stronger and more comfortable in the Seahawks offense with each passing week. QB Russell Wilson hit a bit of a slump late in the regular season but certainly showed signs of turning things around against the Eagles last week. The Packers earned a first round bye but I'm honestly not sure how good this team actually is. I do like their pass rush and WR DaVante Adams is obviously a beast, but outside of that the jury is out. Can QB Aaron Rodgers regain past form? That remains to be seen. I would rather have my money on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Sunday. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Houston caught an extremely favorable draw last week as it hosted the Bills and ultimately needed everything in its bag of tricks to pull out an overtime victory. Now the Texans have to travel to face the rested Chiefs, who will have revenge on their minds after suffering a somewhat shocking loss against Houston right here at Arrowhead earlier this season. The Chiefs are a different team now than they were then. First of all, they have a defense. Second, Patrick Mahomes is healthy and has his full compliment of weapons at his disposal. The Texans defense doesn't match up well at all with the Chiefs multi-dimensional offensive attack. On the flip side, I fully expect to see Kansas City do a good job of keeping Texans QB DeShaun Watson in the pocket. Unlike the Titans, who came out and stunned the Ravens early in last night's game, the Texans offense will have a tough time getting off the ground here. This one has blowout potential. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens -9.5 | 28-12 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Tennessee at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I'll gladly lay the points with the Ravens on Saturday night as they begin what they hope will be a Super Bowl run against the Titans in Baltimore. This is an ideal spot to fade the Titans as the betting public is high on them following their stunning upset over the might Patriots in Foxborough last Saturday. I don't believe Tennessee is as good as it looked in that victory over New England. Let's face it, the Pats were a mess down the stretch and nothing changed at all in the Wild Card round. Here, the Titans will face a much tougher challenge, playing on the road for a third consecutive week off back-to-back victories in 'must-win' games. The Ravens weaknesses are few and far between. I don't need to tell you that QB Lamar Jackson is in line for another huge performance on Saturday night. I do think we'll see the Ravens defense move to the forefront after this game as well as they should absolutely dominate Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. RB Derrick Henry will get his but it won't be enough to keep the Titans within arm's reach of the AFC's number one seed. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. 49ers | 10-27 | Loss | -102 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Vikings in last week's stunning upset of the Saints in New Orleans and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they head to the west coast to face the 49ers. I'm not sure we saw Minnesota's best game at the Superdome last Sunday but it still managed to pull out an overtime win. The overriding narrative here is that the 49ers defense will manhandle the Vikings Kirk Cousins-led offense. I'm just not convinced that will be the case. Yes, the Vikes haven't been as good on the road, and certainly not outdoors. But I believe this is a team with a big chip on their shoulder and that underdog mentality will serve them well again here. The 49ers have enjoyed a terrific season but are largely green when it comes to the postseason. I don't consider Levi's Stadium to be an intimidating venue for the opposition by any means. Give me all the points I can get with the Vikes here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up perfectly as we're dealing with a relatively low total based on all four games last week staying 'under' the total and the fact that the 49ers reputation as a 'defense first' team preceeds them. That's not to mention the notion that the Vikings offense can only go as far as QB Kirk Cousins takes them and the belief that he's in line for a bad game after holding his own in New Orleans last week. I believe the potential is there for a shootout in Santa Clara as the Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers offense doesn't get nearly enough respect. This is one of the most creative offenses in the NFL today and with extra time to prepare I fully expect Kyle Shanahan's squad to pull out all the stops against a very beatable Vikings defense on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are riding high after playing a near-perfect road game in New Orleans last Sunday. I'm not a Kirk Cousins doubter. I'm confident we'll see him turn in another strong performance here with all of his weapons likely at his disposal with WR Adam Thielen expected to be good to go. The common narrative is that the 49ers defense is healthy now and poised to dominate the Vikings, but I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +1 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks are clearly in desperation mode having signed RBs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin prior to last week's narrow loss to the 49ers. While QB Russell Wilson always instills some level of confidence, the rest of the team does not. Seattle is banged-up on both sides of the football and now has to travel across the country to face an Eagles squad that has been surging despite all of their own injuries. Philadelphia's 'next man up' philosophy is nothing new. You of course will remember QB Nick Foles taking over for Carson Wentz and leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory just two years ago. We've seen guys like Boston Scott, Dallas Goedert and Greg Ward step up in a big way in recent weeks, and we should see more of the same here. The Eagles depleted secondary is certainly a concern but I'm not convinced the Seahawks offense can take advantage as Philadelphia's pass rush remains a strength and should have Wilson under duress all afternoon long. They'll be hard-pressed to advance beyond next weekend but I do look for the Eagles to secure a hard-fought victory here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +8 v. Saints | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. No one is giving the Vikings much of a chance in this game but I actually expect a competitive affair. I'm confident Minnesota can move the football on this inconsistent Saints defense with its full compliment of offensive pieces rested and ready to go following what amounted to a bye in Week 17 with its playoff positioning already decided. On the flip side, I don't see this as an ideal situation for Saints QB Drew Brees - an early start afternoon matchup at the Superdome. I've never been all that high on Vikes QB Kirk Cousins but the stats don't like and he has always performed better in a dome setting, as is the case here. I'm not convinced the Saints will ever pull away in this contest, so I'll grab all the points I can get with the Vikings. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a shootout waiting to happen as far as I'm concerned and I fully expected to see the total set well into the 50's so we're getting value playing 'over' the current number. The Vikings will likely be in comeback mode for much of the afternoon on Sunday but that should serve their offense well, with QB Kirk Cousins comfortable slinging it around in a dome setting and WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen set to take advantage of a beatable Saints pass defense. While New Orleans has held up well against the run this season, it will undoubtedly have its hands full with a now-healthy Dalvin Cook, who should be a workhorse for the Vikes on Sunday. I don't think Minnesota has much hope of slowing the Saints surging offense, which didn't take its foot off the gas one bit in Week 17. That performance should serve New Orleans well as it rolls into this eruption spot against the Vikings. RB Alvin Kamara re-emerged as a threat both on the ground and in the passing game down the stretch and he should see plenty of usage in this matchup as well. The Vikes don't have anyone that can cover WR Michael Thomas, who is well-positioned to turn in the best performance of any receiver on Wild Card Weekend. Take the over (10*). |