Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We successfully faded the Broncos last week as they lost outright as a short home favorite against the Colts. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Denver hits the road for a critical matchup against the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Bolts come off consecutive road wins over Houston and Cleveland but neither performance was all that impressive. While loaded with talent, the Chargers defense has been anything but dominant this season. They've been torched for more than 6.0 yards per rush while only three other teams have given up more touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. I believe that opens the door for a Broncos offense that has had a few extra days to perhaps sort out its issues following that embarrassing performance against the Colts. There's no question Denver has the personnel in place to perform much better than it has offensively, particularly at the wide receiver position. Defensively, the Broncos have been stout, particularly against the pass. While the Chargers could probably gain plenty of traction running the football in this one, the temptation always seems strong to put the game in the hands of QB Justin Herbert rather than leaning to heavily on their ground attack. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles has allowed 31.9 points per game while being outscored by an average margin of 2.7 points when coming off consecutive games in which it scored 25+ points, as is the case here. As poorly as things have gone for the Broncos at times, they've still allowed just 18.3 points per game and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points going back to the start of last season. Take Denver (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Bucs -9.5 v. Steelers | 18-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Bucs in last week's game as they left the back door wide open after building a three-touchdown lead against the Falcons. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate here as Tampa Bay is well-positioned to blow the doors off a reeling Steelers squad. There was some optimism in Pittsburgh entering the season but that has been all but dashed following a 1-4 start. Missing a host of key players on defense, the Steelers just don't have the personnel in place to slow Tom Brady and the Bucs steadily-improving offense here. After clearly taking its foot off the gas in the second half against Atlanta last week, and nearly paying the price, I look for Tampa to lay the hammer down here. Defensively, the Bucs are also in a smash spot against a Steelers offense that is quickly turning the page over to the future with QB Kenny Pickett starting at quarterback and rookie RB Jaylen Warren starting to usurp Najee Harris in the backfield. Pickett hasn't shown any sort of rapport with his receiving corps, perhaps with the exception of fellow rookie WR George Pickens. I don't think the absence of TE Pat Freiermuth can be overlooked here either as he's a big part of what the Steelers like to do in the red zone, not to mention a key blocker, noting that Pittsburgh's pass and run blocking is among the worst in the entire NFL. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins OVER 45 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings 27-22 win over the Bears last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the Dolphins this week. As I noted in last week's analysis, Minnesota is a team built for high-scoring affairs. We're starting to see the offense come around under the new coaching staff, consistently scoring in the high-20's in three consecutive weeks. This is another fine matchup, particularly for the Vikings passing game with Dolphins top CB Xavien Howard dealing with groin injuries on both sides and his running-mate Byron Jones still sidelined. Minnesota's offensive line has been a work-in-progress but it allowed just one sack against the Bears last Sunday and if given time in the pocket, Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson should feast on Miami's banged-up secondary on Sunday. On the flip side, rookie QB Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins. The fact that head coach Mike McDaniel is willing to turn to Thompson is telling as all indications are that veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater likely could have played. I think McDaniel knows Thompson gives the Fins a better chance of pushing the football down the field against a very beatable Vikings secondary. Miami's dynamic WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been relatively quiet in recent weeks but this sets up as a smash spot, should they be able to shake off their nagging injuries. There's nothing imposing about the Vikes defense as it is highly-susceptible to the deep pass (it allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt) and hasn't been able to stop the run with any consistency (yielding 4.4 yards per rush). Last week was the first time Minnesota held an opposing team under 100 rushing yards but that's only because the Bears were trailing much of the game and didn't stay committed to running the football as a result. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 21-5 the last 26 times the Vikings have played on the road following a home win in which they didn't cover the spread and 10-1 in their last 11 games following an ATS loss of any kind. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times Miami has come off an ATS defeat, which is also the situation here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*). |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I think it's reasonable to question whether the Rams offense is broken at this point. Largely due to injuries on the offensive line but also as a result of lukewarm play-calling from Sean McVay, the Rams looked punchless and very much like a one-tricky pony - that trick being Cooper Kupp - in Monday's lopsided defeat at the hands of the 49ers. QB Matt Stafford hasn't looked right all season and is always on the verge of injury facing relentless pressure due to his makeshift o-line's ineffectiveness. Note that even on Monday, when Stafford attempted 48 passes (completing 32 of them) he still threw for only 200 yards. Defensively, the Rams are also dealing with a number of injuries and while they may get some players back this week, the prospect of everyone being back at full strength isn't all that high playing on a short week. Los Angeles' poor tackling was evident all night long against the 49ers on Monday. Only San Francisco's conservative play-calling (with its own o-line injury issues) helped keep things from getting completely out of hand. The Cowboys roll into this showdown on the heels of three straight wins. QB Cooper Rush isn't being asked to do too much but he's been serviceable as an NFL starter, leading Dallas to four victories and not a single defeat going back to last season. Dallas regained the services of WR Michael Gallup last week and he quickly got on the scoreboard with a touchdown. The Cowboys receiving corps is starting to come a little more into focus with CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown (who has been better than expected) and Gallup. Dallas is now 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. It's worth noting that the Rams have gone a miserable 25-43 ATS in their last 68 home games with the total set between 42.5 and 45 points. The projected low-scoring nature of this game favors grabbing the points with the underdog Cowboys. Take Dallas (8*). |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 51 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers picked up a statement win against the division-rival and defending Super Bowl champion Rams on Monday Night Football but I look for them to get all they can handle against the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday. This is a tough spot at the best of times as the Niners hit the road on a short week to face a Panthers squad that's fresh off a home loss against the Cardinals last Sunday. While the Panthers are 1-3 to start the campaign, they've been competitive in all four games with two of their three losses coming by three points or less. With RB Christian McCaffrey (who I'll admit has been quiet so far this season) and a capable defense led by a terrific pass rush, I suspect Carolina will rarely be blown out this season. There's certainly a path for the Panthers to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and let their defense take care of the rest. In what projects to be a low-scoring affair (the total sits in the high-30's at the time of writing), I'm comfortable grabbing the points, noting that the Panthers check in a long-term 60-39 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The 49ers not only lost Trent Williams to injury but his backup, Connor McKivitz, who had been filling in admirably, is now out until December as well. I expect to see the Niners continue to focus on running the football and getting the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo's hand quickly when they do elect to throw it. Again, that leads to the potential of long, clock-churning drives that help our cause with the points in our back pocket here. Here, we'll note that the 49ers are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on the road after allowing fewer than 10 points in their previous game and 22-39 ATS in their last 61 contests away from home off a victory by 14 points or more, which is also the situation here. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 80 h 54 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Colts two weeks ago as they pulled off a stunning upset of the Chiefs at home. They couldn't follow it up with another victory last Sunday as they fell by a 24-17 score at home against the division-rival Titans. Note that Indianapolis was seemingly driving for the game-tying touchdown deep in Tennessee territory midway through the fourth quarter before a Jonathan Taylor fumble. Taylor is of course now injured and questionable to play on a short week. I'm not overly concerned with his potential absence as this Colts offense works just fine with Nyheim Hines in the backfield, who is more of a dual-threat back. Here, we'll note that the Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS. The pressure is mounting in Denver as the Broncos are now 2-2 on the season off a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders were the first team to really run at this Broncos defensive front and they racked up 212 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos have been a mess. It's getting to the point where you have to wonder whether Russell Wilson (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett for that matter) are the right fit running this offense. The Colts couldn't stop Derrick Henry last Sunday but that's nothing new. They did shut down the Titans passing game for the most part, allowing only 116 yards on 17-of-21 pass completions. Most are quick to write off Colts QB Matt Ryan who I'll admit appears 'washed' through the first four games of the season. I do think there's more to this team than just Ryan, however, and I'm confident head coach Frank Reich can scheme up a solid bounce-back performance from his team here. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have seen all three of their games stay 'under' the total this season and I expect more of the same on Monday night. A lot of what San Francisco wanted to do offensively went out the window when QB Trey Lance went down to a season-ending injury in Week 2 against Seattle (we won with the Niners in that game). Jimmy Garoppolo is more than capable of running an NFL offense - and the Niners offense in particular - but I don't think we're going to see many blowup spots from this unit. This is obviously a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that knows Garoppolo's tendencies and gives up little against the run. Compounding matters for San Francisco is the absence of all-world tackle Trent Williams after he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday night. I'm higher on his backup, Colton McKivitz, than most but the absence of Williams is only part of the problem as the San Francisco o-line continues to deal with issues on the interior, issues that the Rams standout defensive line can exploit. TE George Kittle has been a virtual non-factor this season and that's unlikely to change as he's needed in pass protection far too often. On the flip side, the Rams offense looks broken. Yes, there was a strong first half against the Falcons two weeks ago but outside of that this unit has had a miserable time coming up with big plays, whether on the ground or through the air. Here, L.A. will likely be banging its head against the wall trying to run on a Niners defense that yields just 2.9 yards per rush this season. Last week against a bad Arizona defense, the Rams were gifted excellent starting position (on the Cardinals 35-yard line) on their first drive but needed nine plays to eventually settle for a field goal. They were again handed excellent field position on their next drive and did convert a Cooper Kupp touchdown but from there it was three-and-out, field goal, three-and-out and three-and-out on their next four drives. Speaking of Kupp, he has owned the Niners recently, however it's worth noting that even in a game where he racked up 140+ receiving yards and two touchdowns in last January's NFC Championship, the Rams still only managed to score 20 points. While I do expect both offenses to move up and down the field in this one, I question how many drives they'll end with 7's rather than 3's. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 5-2 in the 49ers last seven games off a road loss and better still, the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Are we sure that Brian Hoyer is that much of a downgrade over Mac Jones at quarterback for the Patriots? Hoyer knows the offense and likely won't be asked to do too much anyway in this game. The Patriots have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL and will look to pound away against a vulnerable Packers defense that has yielded north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Green Bay checks in off consecutive wins both SU and ATS, taking advantage of two inept offenses (albeit for different reasons) in the Bears and Buccaneers. On paper, this looks like a similar matchup against the Pats but I'm not ready to write off New England just yet. Last week was a poor matchup for the Pats against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens but I expect them to fare much better defensively against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who will likely look to go run-heavy in this matchup. It all leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives, effectively shortening this game and favorite the underdog Pats. Take New England (8*). |
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10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills employed the right strategy with an undermanned defense in the Miami heat last Sunday, churning out long offensive drives that effectively shortened the game. The problem was, they couldn't finish their drives with 7's on the board and it ultimately cost them in a stunning defeat. Here, I look for Buffalo to bounce back with a big win over the Ravens, who are off a considerable victory of their own in New England last Sunday. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been running wild but I'm confident the Bills can contain him - at least on the ground - in this one. Man-to-man defense just doesn't work against the dual-threat Jackson. Buffalo will likely stick to zone here and force Lamar to beat it through the air. Offensively, the Bills should feast on a banged-up Ravens defense. Josh Allen is highly unlikely to turn in two 'bad' games in a row - and I use that term loosely. Let's not forget that the Ravens made Patriots sophomore QB Mac Jones look good last week. Allen should go off in this spot and I look for the Bills to 'get right', noting that Buffalo has gone 28-14 ATS the last 42 times it has played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in the Colts upset win over the Chiefs last Sunday but did win with Indy plus the points. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play as Indy stays at home to host the division-rival Titans, who check in off their first win of the season. This is a blow-up spot for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor against a Titans defense that gives up a whopping 6.1 yards per rush this season. Everyone is down on Colts QB Matt Ryan, who I'll admit looks a little washed at this point of his career. With that being said, Michael Pittman Jr. is back healthy and Ryan does have a 300+ yard passing game under his best this season (back in Week 1 against Houston). I'm willing to bet against the Titans defense here. On the flip side, the Titans offense couldn't have looked any worse against Buffalo two weeks ago. That was very much game script related, however, as they dug a massive hole and had to throw their gameplan out the window. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Titans use RB Derrick Henry effectively against a Colts defense that will once again be without LB Shaquille Leonard. Credit the Colts defense for stepping up against the Chiefs last week but the Titans can score on this unit, as we saw in last year's wild 34-31 victory on this field. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3 | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Miami at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bengals as they return home on a short week off their first win of the season and catch the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa coming off their biggest win in years over the division-rival and Super Bowl favorite Bills. Buffalo employed a curious offensive gameplan against Miami on Sunday, clearly looking to churn out long drives on offense in an effort to keep their severely undermanned defense (particularly in the secondary) off the field for as long as possible. It worked to some extent as Miami was only able to run 39 plays (compared to Buffalo's 90). However, it also seemed as if the Bills shot themselves in the foot time and time again electing to go with short-gainers and struggling to finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I expect the Bengals to attack the Dolphins vulnerable defense relentlessly. Arguably Miami's top defensive player, CB Xavien Howard, continues to nurse a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy workload, primarily against Bills WR Stefon Diggs, last Sunday doesn't help matters. Miami hasn't been particularly stout against the run or the pass - even the Bills were able to gain 115 yards on 23 rush attempts against them on Sunday. As I mentioned, Cincinnati picked up its first win of the season in blowout fashion against the Jets on Sunday. Perhaps most importantly, the offensive line held up for Joe Burrow and since turning the football over five times in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati has now committed just one turnover over the last two games. On the flip side, the Dolphins have forced only one turnover in the last two games after taking the football away from the Patriots three times in Week 1. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 8-23 ATS the last 31 times it has come off an outright underdog win against a division opponent, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after losing two of their last three contests, which is the situation here. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Dolphins 21-19 upset win over the Bills on Sunday after cashing with the same play in their thrilling come-from-behind shootout win over the Ravens the week previous. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play for a third consecutive week. Buffalo not-so-mysteriously employed a 'keep-away' strategy against the Dolphins on Sunday, clearly doing so in an effort to protect their severely undermanned defense, particularly in the secondary. The Bills effectively shortened the game, churning out long drives and eating plenty of clock but it ultimately worked to their detriment as they couldn't finish drives with touchdowns, not often enough at least. Here, I expect the Bengals to go on the attack early and often on offense, noting that they've already attempted 53, 36 and 36 passes in their first three games, with the latter tally coming in Sunday's lopsided win over the Jets - a game where you would have assumed game script would have led to the opposite gameplan. With Joe Mixon banged-up, I'm not convinced we'll see the Bengals go run-heavy here. We finally saw their much-maligned offensive line start to come together in Sunday's win and I'm confident we'll see further progression here. The Dolphins secondary is ripe for the picking in my opinion, especially with CB Xavien Howard still nursing a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy dose of Bills WR Stefon Diggs on Sunday. As for the Miami offense, whether Tua Tagovailoa can go or not (he's dealing with head/back injuries - shrouded in a cloud of mystery as of Monday), I'm confident we'll see Mike McDaniel employ an aggressive gameplan, knowing his team will likely need to score more than the 21 points it put up on Sunday in order to stay undefeated for another week. The Bengals couldn't have faced a weaker slate of opposing quarterbacks through three weeks, going up against Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco. Still, they allowed 674 passing yards on just 68 completions. We already know the Dolphins can play fast and put up points playing from behind after their massive Week 2 comeback against the Ravens. That's the projected game script here as well as they check in as a road underdog against the Bengals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 in the Bengals last eight games when coming off a double-digit victory and a modest 11-9 in the Dolphins last 20 games following an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Just over a week ago, few gave the Cowboys a shot at upsetting the Bengals with Dak Prescott sidelined and a banged-up offensive line tasked with the challenge of keeping backup QB Cooper Rush upright. What did Dallas do? It went out and delivered a victory over the Bengals - Rush's second high-profile win in Prescott's absence after defeating the Vikings on the road in a Sunday night game last October. Here, I believe Dallas can employ a similar gameplan to what we saw last Sunday against Cincinnati, but it will be dealing with an offense with far fewer weapons. By all accounts, New York has used smoke and mirrors to open the season 2-0, rallying in the fourth quarter for a win in Tennessee in Week 1 and scoring only 19 points in a field goal victory over the Panthers in last Sunday's home opener. RB Saquon Barkley has been the engine on offense as QB Daniel Jones has a limited amount of talent to work with at the wide receiver and tight end positions. The Cowboys being a divisional opponent know exactly what to expect from Barkley. They bottled up a pretty good Bengals ground attack to the tune of just 89 rushing yards on 25 carries last week. On the flip side, the Giants have been losing the battle in the trenches, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush this season. Note that Dallas has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins over NFC East opponents, outscoring those opponents by an average margin of 22.2 points. The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average along the way. The Giants, meanwhile, have been outscored by 5.8 points on average in their last 10 games following a win. Take Dallas (10*). |
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09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons enter this game 0-2 but have been competitive in both games, perhaps illustrating a tide-turning of sorts for this down-trodden franchise. After losing, but covering the spread, in a loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday, they'll be determined to earn a split on this road trip with this winnable date with the Seahawks. Seattle probably experienced the high point of its entire season back in Week 1 when it upset Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Night Football. We successfully faded the Seahawks last Sunday as they didn't even put up a fight in a lopsided loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. This is a mouth-watering matchup for the Falcons offense, which is looking for a breakout performance after running against two top-level defensive teams in the Saints and Rams over the last two weeks. The Seahawks are vulnerable all over the field on defense and that should open the door for a big afternoon for standout rookie WR Drake London and dare I say TE Kyle Pitts, who has been disappointing fantasy owners everywhere but carries a strong 'it's only a matter of time' narrative. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Seattle offense. Vulnerable at the back-end, Atlanta catches a break by facing Seahawks QB Geno Smith who simply hasn't shown the ability to throw his receivers open deep. I can't help but feel Pete Carroll will go back a run-first philosophy here after a far more pass-centric offensive gameplan than most expected through two weeks. I also can't help but feel it won't work as the Falcons have actually been stingy against the run despite game-script that would have indicated otherwise in Weeks 1 and 2. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's two meetings between these teams were relatively low-scoring, lopsided affairs in favor of the Bills. While Buffalo has looked incredible through the first two weeks of the season, I do expect it to get its first test here with Miami coming in brimming with confidence following last week's come-from-behind victory in Baltimore. We won with the 'over' in both of these teams' games last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Buffalo knows how to play only one way on offense and that's fast. The Bills are well-positioned to pace this affair as well with WR Gabriel Davis likely to return and Stefon Diggs coming off an explosive performance against the Titans and likely to eat against Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard, who is nursing a groin injury. The Bills have injury concerns of their own on defense. Already down Tre'Davious White, they've got several key cogs banged-up and questionable to play this Sunday (although I do expect all of them to suit up, they won't be 100% healthy) in Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Jordan Phillips. Last week we saw Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel scheme up another masterful offensive gameplan to exploit the Ravens defensive weaknesses at the back-end (due to injury as well). He should be comfortable teeing up Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill again in this one given the state of the Bills defense playing on a short week. Miami's ground game has been an afterthought through two weeks and it should remain that way here given the Bills stout nature defending the run (although the possible absence of Phillips would downgrade that run defense). I'll resist the temptation to go the contrarian route and stick with the 'over' with these two teams for one more week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*). |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Vikings blew out the perennial NFC North front-running Packers last week while the Eagles held on for a three-point victory over the Lions in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. While many are high on the Vikings and believe they can contend for an NFC North title this season, I'm not of that same opinion. Yes, I like some of the pieces they have in place, namely RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson but this is a team that has its share of flaws, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Eagles mean business this year - that was evident when they went out and got WR A.J. Brown and even CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson just prior to start of the season. QB Jalen Hurts has already shown tremendous chemistry with Brown. I'm also anticipating a jump in production in second-year wideout DeVonta Smith this year. Then you have underrated RB Miles Sanders running behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Needless to say, the Eagles offense should be a handful for the Vikings on Monday. While Justin Jefferson is an elite, arguably unstoppable wide receiver, the Eagles do have plenty of bodies to throw at him. With veteran Adam Thielen on the decline, Jefferson is going to continue to get considerable attention from opposing defenses. I'm not convinced the Vikings are well-suited to play from behind, which I expect them to be doing for much of Monday's contest. Note that the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points the last 68 times they've played at home after scoring 30+ points in a game, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-19-22 | Titans v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Buffalo at 7:15 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Bills season-opening blowout win over the Rams in Week 1. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as we're dealing with a lower posted total, albeit against a weaker offensive opponent than they saw last week (the Titans can't perform much worse offensively than the Rams did in the opener). I can't help but feel that the Bills are bound to get involved in some shootouts until they get healthier on defense. Already without CB Tre'Davious White they'll be missing DT Ed Oliver and possibly DT Tim Settle as well on Monday with the latter two opening the door for a big game for Titans RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill may not appear to have many weapons at his disposal on paper but I liked what I saw from rookie WR Treylon Burks last week and guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods are capable wideouts as well. There's little I need to say that hasn't already been said about the Bills offense. They're one of the elite units in the league and will catch the Titans missing a couple of key cogs defensively with CB Kristian Fulton and DT Da'Shawn Hand forced to miss time. The Bills do have their own injury concern on offense with WR Gabriel Davis listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice. Even if he can't go, I still expect the Bills to go off against a very beatable Titans defense. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 with the Bills coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.6 points in that situation. The 'over' has also cashed in nine of Buffalo's last 11 games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Packers go from a nightmarish opening week matchup with the Vikings in Minnesota to a favorable home date with the rebuilding Bears on Sunday night in Week 2. I'm confident we'll see Green Bay right the ship with a convincing win on Sunday night. Take Chicago's opening week victory over the 49ers in torrential rain and awful field conditions with a grain of salt. Yes, the Bears deserve credit for staging the upset but weather was the great equalizer. Here, Chicago won't be so fortunate. Green Bay is expected to have RT Elgton Jenkins and possibly WR Allen Lazard back for this game - both were obviously sorely missed in Minnesota last week. This is a dream bounce-back spot for the Packers dynamic backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon as they run right at what projects as a much weaker Bears defensive front than we've seen in recent seasons. It's the Packers defense that has me most confident about this matchup as they should feast on a woeful Bears offensive line that was effectively hidden by last week's poor weather conditions. Especially as Chicago projects to be playing from behind for much of this game, Green Bay's defense should be able to pin back its ears and tee off on Justin Fields for four quarters. Take Green Bay (8*). |
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09-18-22 | Falcons v. Rams -10 | 27-31 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rams couldn't have looked any worse in their season-opening blowout loss at the hands of the Bills. Now they've had a long week to prepare for a much more favorable matchup against the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta was ultra-competitive but fell just short in its opener against the division-rival Saints last Sunday. It seems that the Falcons still haven't figured out a way to consistently utilize TE Kyle Pitts to his full potential. Until they do, I consider them a fade as they have few other offensive pieces capable of keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night. Yes, jack-of-all-trades RB Cordarelle Patterson had another productive performance last Sunday but it was all for not in a loss. I expect QB Marcus Mariota to be under duress all afternoon long on Sunday and that should lead to plenty of mistakes and potentially turnovers. The Rams offense is far better than it showed against the Bills smothering zone scheme in Week 1. There's talk that QB Matt Stafford isn't 100% healthy but that had little to do with the ugly performance against the Bills. I'm confident we'll see Stafford and the Rams explosive offensive bounce back here. Note that the Saints got highly-productive performances from their WR duo of Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas against the Falcons defense last Sunday in Atlanta and I expect more of the same from the Rams WR combination of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the 49ers as they return home following last week's ugly loss in Chicago to host the Seahawks, playing on a short week following Monday's emotionally-thrilling but draining win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Seattle victory on Monday had more to do with Denver miscues than anything else. Credit the Seahawks to getting off to a strong start in that game, jumping ahead 7-0 on their first drive and never really looking back from there. This game figures to feature a much different game script as the 49ers should be able to impose their will on both sides of the football. Trey Lance critics have been out in full force this week. It's unfair really as few quarterbacks would have been able to find much success in last Sunday's miserable weather (and field) conditions in Chicago. I anticipate Lance looking much more comfortable back at home this Sunday and with a strong performance should stave off calls for Jimmy G for at least one more week. We're always looking to fade teams off emotional highs early in the season and that's certainly the case with the Seahawks - a team that likely experienced their 'Super Bowl' on Monday night. Expect Geno Smith to be brought back to Earth by the 49ers vaunted defensive front at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon, noting that the 49ers are 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.8 points in that situation. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. If you've followed my plays in recent years, you know that I like to pick my spots with 'over' plays in Baltimore, where the Ravens carry a reputation as a defensive juggernaut but simply haven't been that team for quite some time. Here, we can anticipate the Dolphins attacking a banged-up Ravens secondary relentlessly, with first-year head coach Mike McDaniel seemingly bent on playing to his offense's strengths and feeding the electric WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Not to be outdone, I expect the Ravens to continue to attack downfield with a severely limited backfield that may or may not get J.K. Dobbins back on the field this week. The Patriots actually marched up and down the field on the Dolphins defense last Sunday but simply couldn't capitalize with touchdowns. The Ravens are better-suited to finish off drives with points thanks to Lamar Jackson's dual threat ability. This one has sneaky shootout potential in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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09-18-22 | Panthers +2.5 v. Giants | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can’t help but feel the wrong team is favored in this game as the 0-1 Panthers head to the Meadowlands to challenge the 1-0 Giants. Carolina fell on a last-second field goal at home against the Browns last Sunday. I actually felt QB Baker Mayfield performed better than expected in his debut with his new team. RB Christian McCaffrey was a non-factor but that changes this week as I expect him to eat in the short passing game. The Giants were already depth-shy in the secondary and will be forced to go without their number two corner Aaron Robinson this week. Like McCaffrey, I expect WR D.J. Moore to have a big bounce-back performance here. Saquon Barkley absolutely went off for the G-Men in last week’s win in Tennessee, virtually willing them to victory. I still don’t believe Daniel Jones is the answer at quarterback and as much as head coach Brian Daboll would like to limit his quarterback’s impact on the game, I look for the Panthers defense to feast on Jones this week. Take Carolina (8*). |
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09-18-22 | Colts v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Colts are in tough due to injuries on Sunday afternoon as they'll be without Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr., among others. This was already going to be a tough spot for Indianapolis as it comes off a highly-disappointing tie on the road against Houston last Sunday. The Jags didn't look great in a season-opening loss in Washington but I do think we'll see gradual improvement from them on both sides of the football under new head coach Doug Pederson. Here, in their home opener there's reason for optimism as they face a depleted Colts squad that is ripe for the picking in Week 2. Already severely limited with his supporting cast, the absence of Pittman looms large over the Colts offense led by Matt Ryan. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is capable of shouldering even more of the load but you can be sure the Jags will be stacking the box to bottle him up. Taylor is a much better running back playing from ahead than behind (as are most backs) and I expect that to be evident on Sunday afternoon. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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09-18-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. With T.J. Watt sidelined and Najee Harris severely banged-up the Steelers just don't have a lot of redeeming qualities as they return home off last Sunday's stunning upset win over the defending AFC champion Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the Steelers for gutting out a win in that overtime game but let's face it, the result was gift-wrapped by the Bengals, who looked completely out of sorts on both sides of the football. Here, the Steelers have the benefit of returning home but do so against a Patriots squad that has a foul taste in its mouth off last Sunday's divisional road loss in Miami. Whiel the Pats offense certainly has plenty of warts, I don't think it is as bad as it is being made out to be. Xavien Howard blanketed Devante Parker in last Sunday's game and Mac Jones struggled to find consistent options to pass to and the ground game wasn't able to thrive trailing for much of the contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Patriots defense and ground attack comes up big against a Steelers squad that quite simply doesn't match up well on either side of the football. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still a mess and I have little faith in QB Mitchell Trubisky holding down the starting job for more than the first few games this season. Defensively, T.J. Watt is the Steelers engine and his absence can't be understated. The Pittsburgh secondary came up big last Sunday but that had a lot to do with Watt pressuring Joe Burrow into ill-advised throws. Both of these teams probably deserve to be 1-1 through two weeks and I'm confident that's how it will play out. Take New England (10*). |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
AFC West total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a division game on a short week at this early stage of the season, I'm not anticipating a lot of first half offensive fireworks between the Chargers and Chiefs on Thursday night. Note that this same matchup produced just 17 and 24 points in the first half in two meetings last year. The Chargers have seen six of their last seven September games stay 'under' the total in the first half and the 'under' is 9-4 in the first half in all Chargers games where the first half total has been set at 25 points or more going back to 2020. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have appeared in two Thursday night games over the last two seasons and both got off to low-scoring starts with the 'under' cashing in the first half. In the long-term picture, the 'under' is 35-19 in the first half in the Chiefs last 54 games played in the first month of the season. I'm not convinced the Kansas City offense is going to be quite as explosive as we saw in last week's rout of the Cardinals, noting that Arizona's blitz-happy nature on defense really opened things up for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Chargers can stay home a little more and still generate pressure with the likes of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the outside. On the flip side, the Chargers always seem to generate a ton of early season hype before fizzling late. I don't expect them to roll into Arrowhead and lay waste to a good Chiefs defense - at least not early in Thursday's contest. Take the first half under (10*). |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks OVER 44 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Few believe the Seahawks will be able to mount any sort of offense against the Broncos vaunted defense on Monday night, certainly not with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm. While I don't envision Seattle staging an upset victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the reasonably priced total. First, let's talk about the Broncos. Denver's offense figures to be much improved with QB Russell Wilson representing a massive upgrade over Drew Lock, who is now the Seahawks backup QB. Wilson has a full compliment of weapons at his disposal to star the season with among the best 1-2 tandems both in the backfield and at the wide receiver position. On the flip side, the Broncos are a little banged-up on defense and could be vulnerable against the run in particular. That plays into the hands of what the Seahawks want to do and that's pound the football. Note that while most consider Geno Smith dust at this stage of his career, he did make three starts last season and showed a good rapport with WR DK Metcalf in particular, hooking up with him for 251 yards and four scores. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers UNDER 42 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the lowest posted totals on the Week 1 NFL board and it's warranted in my opinion. Cleveland's offense is likely going to be severely limited until QB Deshaun Watson can make his debut following an 11-game suspension. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be a serviceable backup QB but this is a far-from-ideal matchup as he sees his first true game action with his new team against what I consider to be an underrated Panthers defense. Carolina's pass rush should be able to camp out in the Browns backfield, should Cleveland elect to throw the ball often. The more likely game script from the Browns will involve plenty of running with the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That's just fine as it helps keep the clock moving. Carolina will have a revenge-minded Baker Mayfield under center as he was named the starting quarterback in August. I'm not counting on a whole lot of splash plays from the Panthers aerial attack. It's basically a one-man show when it comes to the Carolina receiving corps with D.J. Moore likely to see the bulk of the targets but also the majority of the attention from Browns elite cornerback Denzel Ward. Christian McCaffrey is the x-factor for the Panthers offense and all indications are that he's healthy entering the 2022 campaign. Expect the Browns to funnel their defense to Carolina's elite dual-threat running back and should the Panthers elect to keep the ball on the ground or employ a short pass-centric attack, that only helps to keep the clock moving and effectively shortens this game. Take the under (8*). |
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09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games on the Week 1 board. While we're dealing with a reasonably high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Philadelphia is well-positioned to smash in this spot offensively. The Lions are an intriguing sleeper pick in the NFC North this season but that optimism has a lot more to do with their offense than their defense. That defense might just be awful and certainly doesn't get better after losing pass rusher Romeo Okwara to the PUP list. Philadelphia's offense should take flight in Jalen Hurts' second year as the starting QB. He'll be given plenty of help with an improved cast of receivers led by one of the best in the game in A.J. Brown. Perhaps what isn't getting enough attention is the strength of the Eagles offensive line, which should help give Hurts the opportunity to put up monster numbers this season. RB Miles Sanders and WR Devonta Smith are two keys at the skill positions that aren't being talked about enough in this offense either and set up well to go off in this particular matchup. Defensively, the Eagles are stout at the back-end but appear average at best up front and in the middle of the field. That plays right into the hands of a Lions offense that has two gamebreakers in RB De'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown that are adept at attacking the middle of the football field. With Swift back healthy he's in for a monster season, operating behind an underrated Lions offensive line. I'm higher on QB Jared Goff than some, feeling that he's an excellent fit in this offense. We certainly saw him build terrific chemistry with St. Brown down the stretch last year (he had few other options to throw to at the time) and I'm confident that duo will pick up right where they left off here. While I like the Eagles to win this game, the Lions will undoubtedly be a 'tough out' playing in front of a rare packed house at Ford Field. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-22 | Colts -7 v. Texans | Top | 20-20 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
AFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've actually seen this line float down to the key number of -7 since opening. Last year, the Texans were a popular fade in Week 1 as they hosted the Jaguars. What did Houston do? It blew the doors off of its hapless opponent, crushing Jacksonville bettors in the process (myself included). It's a much different story this year. The general consensus is that the arrow is pointing up in Houston with seemingly only positive news coming out of camp and the preseason. I see this as a tough opening week matchup for the Texans, however, as they host the Colts and their new-look offense run by veteran QB Matt Ryan. I say new-look but it should be more of the same for Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor once again the focal point. He absolutely ripped through the Texans in two meetings last season, gaining over 300 yards on 47 carries while also finding the end zone four times. That's not to say the Colts can't beat the Texans through the air as well. Houston's weakness on defense should lie in the secondary, where it used an early draft pick on CB Derek Stingley. While the Colts passing game doesn't look all that imposing at first glance, guys like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Mo Alie-Cox have splash potential here. Houston's offense is going to be better this year, I'm confident of that as QB Davis Mills settles into his first full season as starter. This isn't the game where we see it though, at least not in my opinion, as the Colts defense put the clamps on Mills last year and should have little trouble doing so again here. Note that key run-stopper Shaquille Leonard was a full participant in Colts practice on Wednesday. While the Indianapolis defense does leave a lot to be desired at the back-end, its zone scheme works in its favor against a limited Texans receiving corps headlined by Brandin Cooks. There will be spots where we can successfully back Houston in an underdog role, likely sooner rather than later, but not this week. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams OVER 52 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. For the second straight year, the NFL has scheduled a potential shootout in the Thursday night opener as the Bills head to Los Angeles to challenge the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Buffalo loses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants head coaching job but I expect the train to keep rolling with Ken Dorsey, who has been working with the offense and Josh Allen in particular for the last three seasons, taking over the play-calling reins. Not much should change as far as the Bills offensive gameplan. They want to play fast and put the ball in the hands of their playmakers, led by WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, who many have pegged for a breakout season given Buffalo's offseason departures at the position. I like the addition of second-round draft pick, RB James Cook, who should add another element to the Bills short passing game. While the Rams are thought of as an elite defensive team, they actually proved vulnerable against the better passing attacks they faced last year, with little help in the secondary around standout corner Jalen Ramsey. The Rams offense catches a break with the Bills missing their top corner in Tre'Davious White. Rams WR Cooper Kupp presents a mismatch for most opposing defenses and the Bills are no different. While Buffalo's offense continues to get better with each passing year, its defense doesn't get better by losing White to the PUP list. Keep an eye on Rams offseason acquisition, WR Allen Robinson, who has to be ecstatic to get out of Chicago and into this ultra-efficient offense led by QB Matt Stafford. While not always flashy, the Rams offense is capable of keeping pace with the Bills in this passing-friendly environment indoors at SoFi Stadium on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. |
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02-06-22 | AFC v. NFC OVER 62.5 | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the AFC and NFC at 3 pm et on Saturday. I rarely get involved in the Pro Bowl as there doesn't tend to be any sort of edge to be found. This year I'm willing to make an exception, however. The NFL regularly adjusts the rules for the Pro Bowl and this year is no different. Those rule adjustments are generally made to favor the offenses and improve player safety, while also speeding the game up to provide a more entertaining 'All-Star Game' experience for the fans. Among the changes include forcing the defenses to use a 4-3 alignment for the entire game, limiting the number of defensive backs on the field. That certainly serves to open things up for the aerial attacks and creates a number of mismatches for the tight ends in particular as they often end up matched up against linebackers with little coverage ability. There is of course no blitzing allowed, serving to provide mostly clean pockets for the quarterbacks all afternoon long. We'll also see a two-minute warning in each quarter along with a change of possession at the end of each quarter, forcing the teams to employ an aggressive offensive gameplan at the end of each quarter, much like we're accustomed to seeing at the end of the first half. In another interesting quirk, the goalposts are just 14-feed wide rather than the standard 18-feet, six inches. While that leads to more difficult field goals for the kickers, it also lends itself to more aggressive play-calling, perhaps leading to more sevens on the board rather than threes. Some of these changes were made perhaps to improve the appeal of the game after a string of three consecutive dull, low-scoring games from 2017 through 2019. Last year's Pro Bowl was cancelled due to Covid-19 but the last time we saw some of these rules in place in the 2020 edition, a total of 71 points were scored in an relatively entertaining affair. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers limitations with a banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo running the offense are real. If not for that late comeback against these same Rams in Week 18 we would be talking about a team that scored 23 points or less in five straight games heading into this one. I'm not convinced we'll suddenly see them bust out in this, the third matchup between these familiar NFC West foes this season. The Rams offense had little trouble (other than turnovers) carving up the Bucs defense last Sunday. I think we see a different story unfold here, however. While Matt Stafford has been terrific through the first two playoff games, he hasn't really faced a whole lot of resistance. Here, I'm confident he will against a Niners defense that isn't going to turn blitz-happy the way the Bucs defense did last week, which opened the door for Stafford to find open receivers all game long. Note that the Rams have scored 30+ points in consecutive games for only the second time this season. The last time that happened, they followed it up with a low-scoring 20-10 home win over Seattle the next week. For San Francisco, with an ailing Garoppolo going up against a fierce Rams pass rush, not to mention Trent Williams battling a possible high-ankle sprain, this one will need to be 'managed' just as we saw in the last six quarters of action (since Jimmy G. suffered the shoulder injury in the second quarter against Dallas). The fact that we're working with a fairly low posted total (by today's NFL standards) is the only thing that has me limiting my bet somewhat here. Take the under (8*). |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. Everyone seems to be buying what the Rams are selling following last Sunday's big win over the Bucs in Tampa. I'm just not convinced we'll see Sean McVay exercise his own demons against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers on Sunday. First of all, home field advantage is seemingly once again being factored in here, even though we're more than likely to see more red and gold than blue and yellow in the crowd at So-Fi Stadium on Sunday. Not that it matters anyway as the 49ers walked into rather severe conditions in ice cold, snowy Green Bay last Saturday and came away victorious even after things looked extremely dire late. That's what I like about this 49ers squad - they don't quit. There's no question the Niners are limited here with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries. He's not the only one banged-up as Trent Williams is questionable to play at all due to an ankle injury although I can't see him sitting this one out. They've been game-planning around those limitations for weeks now, and I believe they're more than comfortable operating as such here as well. I quite simply have more faith in the Niners than I do in the Rams right now, noting that they're on an incredible 4-0 SU run in an underdog role - a streak that started with a win over the Rams on Monday Night Football back in mid-November. The fact that we're able to grab north of a field goal is an added bonus. Take San Francisco (7*). |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Playoffs First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday,. The Chiefs have now seen the first half 'over' cash in five straight games. I believe that streak comes to an end on Sunday. The stakes are obviously sky-high in this one as Kansas City looks to advance to a third consecutive Super Bowl while the Bengals look to get there well ahead of schedule in the Joe Burrow era. There's been a pretty solid pattern developing with Bengals first half totals away from home. Cincinnati has scored just 9.6 points on average in the first half on the road this season - north of three points fewer than their overall first half scoring average. While the Chiefs don't figure to generate the same level of pressure on Burrow that the Titans did last week, Kansas City still boasts a capable defense that has excelled in the first half at home this season, giving up just 9.1 points on average. The Bengals defense wasn't pushed all that hard by the Titans last Saturday but it will be here. With that being said, this is a capable defense that I believe can hold up well, at least in the early stages of this game. I certainly don't expect to see the Bengals serve as a 'swinging gate' the way they did in their regular season meeting with the Chiefs, when they gave up a whopping 28 first half points. Keep in mind, after making halftime adjustments, they held the Chiefs vaunted offense to just three points in the entire second half, so we do know they're capable. I'm not convinced that either team wants to get involved in the type of shootout we saw in Cincinnati. Both offenses are certainly capable but effectively shortening this game might be the best course of action for both squads given the talent on the opposing sideline. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in the first half over the last three seasons with the Chiefs having gained an average of over 450 total yards per contest over their last three games, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average first half total of just 24.1 points. Take the first half under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 130 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. This game obviously has the makings of an instant classic. I believe we're getting the Chiefs at a discount here after Buffalo got the monkey off its back with a blowout win here at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season. The Bills offense was unstoppable on that night but the Chiefs defense was playing awful football at the time, having opened the season allowing 29, 36, 30 and 30 points in their first four games. While the schedule has certainly played a role, Kansas City enters this contest having given up 21 points or less in nine of 13 games since that loss to the Bills. Buffalo played a near perfect game, particularly on offense, against the division rival Patriots last Saturday. I don't expect it to come close to matching that level of efficiency here. Most are looking at this game as a 'changing of the guard' in the AFC but I don't believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are done yet. They obviously have unfinished business of their own after a poor showing against Tom Brady and the Bucs in last year's Super Bowl. I have a lot of respect for the Bills so there's really not much I can say to knock them here. Simply put, I feel the line is too short with not enough respect being given to a complete Chiefs squad that has a real home field advantage, particularly at this time of year, at Arrowhead Stadium. Take Kansas City (9*). |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 130 h 17 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been involved in a pair of high-scoring shootouts going back to last year's playoffs so it's not surprising that we're dealing with a total in the mid-50's in advance of Sunday's Divisional Round showdown in Kansas City. I believe that total will prove too high. Both defenses are for the most part healthy entering this clash (with the exception of Tre'Davious White for the Bills who has been sidelined for quite some time). While the offenses generally get all of the press, the two defenses are elite. The Bills check in allowing just 17.5 points per game on the road this season. The Chiefs give up 17.9 points per game at home. While the Chiefs have supreme confidence in their ability to go back-and-forth with any offense in the league, there is some reason for caution here after Buffalo rolled up well over 400 yards and hung 38 points on them here at Arrowhead Stadium back in October. I think it would be foolish to expect a similar performance from the Buffalo offense here, however. The Chiefs defense was a mess going into that matchup, having allowed 29, 36, 30 and 30 points over their first four games of the season. Since then, Kansas City has allowed 21 points or less in nine of 13 games and that 21-point performance came by way of a defensive score from the Steelers last Sunday. The Bills defense has had a giant chip on its shoulder ever since getting run over by the Patriots ground game in that memorable Monday night affair back in early December. They've given up just 77 points over their last five games. I have a lot of respect for both offenses and they'll undoubtedly find some success in this game. But we're talking about an extremely high total here - too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Sunday. I'm a strong believer that the 'revenge' angle means something when it comes to Tom Brady. While it's true that some teams will get the better of Brady at times, he generally gets the last laugh when the games matter the most. Case in point, the Saints have defeated the Bucs four times going back to the start of last season. However, when the chips were down in the NFL Divisional Round last year, Brady guided the Bucs to a win in what turned out to be Drew Brees' final NFL game, at the Superdome no less. I make that point because here Brady will be facing the Rams for the third time since joining the Bucs at the start of last season. The Rams have got the better of Brady and the Bucs on both previous occasions including a fairly dominant 34-24 victory back in Week 3 this season. We all know about the Bucs injury issues. They're missing a number of key contributors, particularly on the offensive side of the football. They suffered more injuries in last Sunday's win over the Eagles with both Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs, two integral parts of the offensive line, going down and questionable to play against the Rams. Regardless, I like Brady and the Bucs chances of rising to the occasion and living to fight at least one more game in these playoffs. The Rams lopsided win over the Cardinals on Monday night is fresh in the minds of most bettors and they're certainly being given considerable respect with this line sitting at the standard three points for home field advantage. I haven't been sold on the Rams all season and I'm not about to change course here. I have the ultimate confidence in the Bucs defense stepping up and rattling Matt Stafford in this one. The Rams have a track record of failing to deliver when the chips are down under Sean McVay and I expect nothing different here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -106 | 126 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The 49ers will undoubtedly be a popular play not only against the spread but on the moneyline in this game as well. After all, the Niners have been a trendy Super Bowl pick since earning their way into the playoffs with an upset win in Los Angeles in Week 18 - a game they trailed 17-0 but rallied to win in overtime. We won with the Niners in last Sunday's 'upset' victory in Dallas but I'm not interested in going back to the well here. The Packers have fallen out of favor with bettors a little bit after dropping the cash in three of their last four games. I like the fact they draw a familiar opponent here, having faced the Niners three times since the start of 2020, including a wild 30-28 win in Santa Clara back in late September. While the Niners suffered a couple of key injuries to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner in last Sunday's win in Dallas (it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to play on Saturday), the Packers have been getting healthier and may have standout CB Jaire Alexander (among others) back for this game. Here, we'll note that the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. The 49ers find themselves in a poor situation here, noting that winning teams that are on the road catching between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off consecutive SU road victories, when facing a winning opponent, have gone a miserable 7-28 ATS and have been outscored by an average margin of 13.0 points the last 35 times that situation has come up. Take Green Bay (8*). |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | 19-16 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure I'm in the minority in saying that the Titans are probably one of the weaker one-seeds in the AFC in recent years. They benefited from a very manageable schedule over the second half of the regular season, with a number of close calls along the way that could have really gone either way. With that being said, they catch a break here hosting a Bengals squad that managed to walk away victorious thanks to a goal-line stand at the end of the fourth quarter against the Raiders, but lost a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football in that game. That's a little-talked about aspect of grabbing the one-seed and the bye that goes along with it. It not only gives a team much-needed rest but it also eliminates the potential of losing key players to injury during the Wild Card round. Here, the Bengals will be without Larry Ogunjobi and could also be missing Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels. Even if one of the latter two can't go it would be a major blow. Of course, the Titans will have RB Derrick Henry back in the fold giving them a massive boost. The Titans have had their share of playoff disappointment in recent years, but I look for them to prevail on Saturday and we'll lock in the line early to take advantage of what is likely to look like a discounted price later in the week. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted with a relatively low-scoring game in the Bengals playoff debut last Saturday. Cincinnati has had a tendency to ease off the gas offensively in games where it hasn't needed to trade scores and we certainly saw that against the Raiders. With that being said, there was nothing I saw from the Bengals offense in that game that gave me pause looking ahead to playing the 'over' in this matchup. Cincinnati was able to move the football up and down the field with little resistance against the Raiders and I like the way it matches up against the Titans as well. Tennessee faced an extremely soft stretch of defensive opponents over the second half of the season. Look at their lineup of opponents going back to Week 10; New Orleans, Houston, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco (in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo injured his thumb), Miami and Houston again. Not surprisingly, the Titans defense posted some solid numbers over that stretch while their offense was able to tread water and do just enough to earn the number-one seed. Now the Titans defense will certainly be tested, but I also think their offense will be more than up to the challenge, noting that they're expected to get RB Derrick Henry back on the field while the Bengals lost a number of key defensive cogs to injury in last week's win, with Larry Ogunjobi already ruled out and Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels' status still up in the air. These two teams actually matched up last season and combined to score 51 points in a Bengals win in Cincinnati. That game saw a closing total of 49 points. Remember, earlier this season the Titans regularly saw totals posted in the 50's - in six of their first nine games, in fact. This total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-16-22 | Steelers +13 v. Chiefs | 21-42 | Loss | -119 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. No team is carrying a stronger 'no one believes in us' vibe heading into the NFL Playoffs than the Pittsburgh Steelers. And rightfully so. Very few do believe in them as they face a seemingly insurmountable task in Kansas City on Sunday. After all, the Chiefs already beet the Steelers by a 36-10 score back on Boxing Day. However, that actually sets Pittsburgh up well in this one (stay with me here). The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 points in that situation. That 26-point loss to Kansas City was one of only three losses by 14 points or more this season. While I'm not about to compare this Steelers team to the Ravens eventual Super Bowl winning squad back in 2013, there's no question there are some similar vibes being given off with this being Big Ben's last ride (you may remember the Ravens rallied around Ray Lewis after he announced he would be retiring at the end of their 2013 playoff run). I actually like the way Roethlisberger's approach seemed to evolve in the latter stages of the regular season, almost as if the pressure was off. I don't think the Steelers enter this game feeling much pressure given that no one is giving them a chance of winning. It's not as if the Chiefs have been the picture of consistency - just 8-9 ATS overall this season including a 4-5 ATS mark at home. Take Pittsburgh (9*). |
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01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-17 | Win | 102 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
NFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys couldn't have drawn a worse matchup in the Wild Card round. The 49ers are playing exceptionally well on both sides of the football right now with their lone blemish a 20-17 Thursday night loss in Tennessee where QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a thumb injury during the game. The Niners will arguably have the best two offensive players on the field in this game in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle (I realize there are some Cowboys that would take exception to that). While their offense has really taken off lately, I've been more impressed by their defense, which has held its last four opponents to no more than 236 passing yards despite facing 30+ pass attempts in each of those games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Niners allowed 100 yards rushing and it happened only once over their last 10 contests. The Cowboys are certainly a formidable opponent but not invincible, noting they have lost there of their last five games here at Jerry World. Their offense routinely put up 30+ points in the first two months of the season but reached that mark just twice over their last six games, with those performances coming against a severely depleted Washington squad and an Eagles team that rested the majority of its starters last Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys are just 1-8 ATS when the line sits between +3 and -3 over the last two seasons and they haven't been particularly close in those games, losing by an average margin of 11.0 points. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
AFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. What does home field advantage really mean in this matchup? The road team took both regular season meetings, and in rather convincing fashion. On a freezing cold Saturday night in Buffalo, I'm more than comfortable grabbing more than a field goal with a Bill Bellichick-coached Patriots team coming off an ugly loss last Sunday in Miami. The Bills snuck in the front door for a win and cover against the lowly Jets last Sunday (we won with Buffalo in that game). Few teams have been more 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' than the Bills this season. Losses against the Steelers, Jaguars and Colts certainly come to mind. And then there was the 14-10 home loss against these same Patriots in a game where they were quite simply bullied into submission. Buffalo did exact its revenge in a 33-21 win in New England in Week 16. Even in that contest, though, the Bills allowed 149 rushing yards on 27 attempts. It's easy to forget that the Patriots were thought to be the AFC's best team - perhaps on a collision course with Tom Brady and the Bucs in the Super Bowl - after that Monday night victory in Buffalo back in early December. There's no question they've fallen out of favor since then and last Sunday's 33-24 loss in Miami with an AFC East title hanging in the balance only amplified the doubters. Here, we'll note that the Patriots are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.1 points on average in that spot and 50-29 ATS the last 79 times they've played on the road off a loss. The Bills, meanwhile, are 8-20 ATS the last 28 times they've come off four straight wins, as is the case here, and 15-32 ATS the last 47 times they've come off a home win against a division opponent, which is also the situation here. Take New England (10*). |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. The Raiders are in a classic fade spot here, coming off an outright underdog victory at home against a division rival, not to mention playing on a short week, on the road no less. With that being said, I believe they match up well with the Bengals, especially given this will be their second shot at Cincinnati this season after turning in a poor effort at home back in November. That game was played in the midst of Las Vegas' 1-5 slide. Now we get the Raiders coming off four straight wins, and still carrying that 'us against the world' mentality that has seemingly helped so many underdog teams in the NFL Playoffs over the years. The Bengals celebrated the AFC North division title like they won the Super Bowl two weeks ago. They of course laid down in last week's season finale on the road against the Browns (and rightfully so with nothing to play for). I think that might bite them a little here as they had been playing so well prior to that game. For the Raiders, they've essentially been playing playoff football for weeks, desperately trying to sneak into the postseason, which they did thanks to last Sunday's overtime thriller against the Chargers. I also like the fact that Las Vegas has its key pieces (relatively) healthy for this one with RB Josh Jacobs playing some of the best football of his young career and TE Darren Waller having returned with a two-catch but nine-target performance last Sunday. Both players find themselves in favorable matchups against the Bengals dare-I-say overrated defense here. It's been an eternity since the Bengals last won a playoff game. Maybe they get that giant monkey off of their back here, but I'm not convinced a win will come easy and will grab the points accordingly. Take Las Vegas (9*). |
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01-09-22 | Jets v. Bills -16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch in Buffalo. The Jets have inexplicably scored 24+ points in three straight games but only have one win to show for it. I suspect that run comes to an end here, however, noting that Buffalo has allowed only 49 points in its last three games combined, holding those three opponents to a combined 45-of-93 (48.4%) passing for just 432 yards. On the flip side, we've seen the Bills running game somewhat surprisingly step to the forefront, rumbling for 173, 119, 114 and 233 yards over their last three games. With an AFC East title hanging in the balance (Buffalo would also need a Patriots loss to the Dolphins) I don't expect the Bills to take their foot off the gas in this one. Given what an uneven regular season it has been for Buffalo, I suspect they want to head into the playoffs with a sharp performance on both sides of the football here (I realize that goes without saying). Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Texans last week, deservedly so as they went far too conservative in an eventual 16-point loss in San Francisco. With Houston simply playing out the string and the Titans looking to potentially wrap up the AFC's number-one seed and a first-round bye, I look for Tennessee to win this one going away. The Titans won't have RB Derrick Henry back for this game. That actually works in our favor from a pointspread perspective. I don't believe Henry's heroics will be needed to secure a lopsided win here. We've seen the Titans take flight over the last six quarters of football - clearly this is a team peaking at the right time. They certainly won't want to lose any of that momentum on Sunday. The only reason the Texans were even somewhat competitive in last week's loss in San Francisco was because the Niners had to turn to rookie QB Trey Lance, with somewhat of a limited offensive gameplan, early on at least. As that game evolved, Lance and the Niners offense were able to get whatever they wanted and I would anticipate a similar scenario unfolding in favor of the Titans explosive offense here. Take Tennessee (9*). |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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01-03-22 | Browns -1 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
MNF First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Maybe Big Ben has some magic left in his final home start at Heinz Field. I'm willing to bet it's the Browns that come out aggressively and take a lead into halftime on Monday night, however. Prior to last week against Green Bay, the Browns hadn't dropped the cash in the first half in consecutive games all season. So here, they enter riding their only first half losing streak of the season. It's been a different story for the Steelers, who have now failed to cover the first half pointspread in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch they've been outscored 124-29. That's no fluke. Pittsburgh averages only 9.4 points on 5.2 yards per play in the first half at home this season. By contrast, the Browns average 14.1 points on 6.3 yards per play in the first half on the road. After losing the first meeting of the season by a 15-10 score at home - a game in which they were never able to get anything going offensively - I look for Cleveland to go on the attack early in this one, pounding away on the Steelers weak run defense that has allowed an ugly 4.8 yards per rush this season. Take Cleveland first half (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Texans +13 v. 49ers | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A strange thing has happened as the Texans have reeled off consecutive wins and have actually played .500 football over their last six games. While they're a significant underdog on Sunday in Santa Clara, I believe they can hang tough. I like the fact that Houston has gone on the offensive lately, with QB Davis Mills actually playing well and displaying a solid rapport with his receiving corps. The Texans have attempted 106 passes over the last three games alone. Now they get Brandin Cooks back from Covid protocol which should only help their cause against what I consider to be a beatable 49ers defense. San Francisco had been rolling along offensively before running into a desperate Titans squad last Thursday. The Niners lost Jimmy Garroppolo in that game, however, meaning they'll turn to rookie Trey Lance in this one. While 49ers fans are high on Lance, and for good reason, at this early stage of his career I believe his starting presence should warrant a downgrade when it comes to the Niners offense, especially their two top playmakers in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. I'm not entirely sure what sort of gameplan head coach Kyle Shanahan will cook up in this one but I do feel it's a stretch to expect the Niners to win this one by two touchdowns or more. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games earlier this week but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. The Bears will likely turn to Nick Foles at quarterback as Justin Fields deals with an ankle injury. Given what we've seen from Fields it's hard to envision much of a downgrade. If anything Foles may be able to do a better job of pushing the football down the field. It's not as if the Bears are bereft of playmakers on offense. RB David Montgomery is in line to go off against a weak Seattle run defense here. The Seahawks got some good news as WR Tyler Lockett sounds like he'll be able to play. Chicago's defense continues to play on without a number of key contributors and doesn't figure to offer much resistance here. Robert Quinn and the Bears pass rush is certainly a concern but I think the Seahawks can stay balanced and find some success regardless, noting that they scored 30 points in their lone home game over their last four contests. Take the over (9*). |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | 22-16 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Indianapolis at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. With the Colts dealing with considerable Covid issues I can certainly see them punting this one, especially with games against the Raiders and Jaguars on deck. I liked the situation prior, but now that we have a little more clarity I see this as an ideal spot to back Arizona as a short favorite at home as it looks to bounce back from last week's dismal performance against the Lions. It's not difficult to come back from that type of poor performance as we saw from the Cards last week, particularly at home. Take Arizona (10*). |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Cleveland at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not going to get caught overthinking this one. The Browns are missing so many key contributors and let's face it, they weren't playing all that well to begin with. Yes, Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are among those players expected back from Covid protocols. No I don't think they have any sort of advantage against a Packers defense that should be in a foul mood after giving up 30 points against the Ravens last Sunday. Offensively, there's little reason to expect anything other than Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense running roughshod over the Browns overrated defense. Cleveland held up well against the Raiders on Monday but that had more to do with the limited nature and cautious, conservative approach by the Las Vegas offense than anything else in my opinion. The Browns don't get better with defensive anchor Myles Garrett dealing with a nagging groin injury and playing on a very short week. They also lose key safety John Johnson. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here, Seattle is going to relish playing the spoiler role down the stretch. The Seahawks could have folded the tent but instead they’re playing well off consecutive wins and I don’t expect them to roll over against the division rival Rams, in a revenge spot no less. On the flip side, the Rams are making up for lost time in a sense as well and should tee off on a very beatable Seahawks defense here - just as they did in the season’s first meeting. The loser gets to 21-24 points in this one and that should cash our ticket with ease. Take the over (8*). |
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12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles -6.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I’m not going to overthink this one. The Washington Football Team made things a lot closer than they probably should have been in last week’s home loss to the Cowboys. Now, likely missing a number of key cogs against the Eagles, on the road no less, I look for them to struggle mightily to stay competitive. Philadelphia is as healthy as you could hope for in the midst of this Omicron wave. And the Eagles obviously still have everything to play for at this point. Only Dallas miscues on offense kept the Football Team from getting embarrassed last Sunday. I can’t see them benefitting from the same against the Eagles though. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games with the lone loss coming in a clear letdown spot against the Giants on the road. They also put up 30+ points in those three wins and should be able to approach that number again here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While the Bears are ravaged by Covid-related absences I'm willing to take a flyer on them grabbing nearly a full touchdown at home against what I consider to be an untrustworthy Vikings squad. Minnesota's most lopsided road win this season came by only seven points against the Chargers last month. The Vikes defense remains extremely vulnerable and it's obvious that the Bears offense is on an uptick right now, having scored 22 and 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Packers - two very difficult matchups - over the last two weeks. Rookie QB Justin Fields is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers and I expect to see further progression against a very beatable Vikings secondary here. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by a grand total of just 14 points with the Bears winning two of those games outright. Take Chicago (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Cleveland at 5 pm et on Monday. Even with all of the uncertainly around Covid-related absences leading up to this game, I believe the potential is there for a relatively high-scoring affair. That's definitely a contrarian take when you consider the Raiders have been held to 16 or less points in five of their last six games. With that being said I like the way this one sets up for a couple of skill players in particular, those being WR Hunter Renfrow and RB Josh Jacobs. Renfrow should feast on an undermanned Browns secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 69% of their passes over their last eight games. Things don't figure to get better in that regard with a number of key cogs in the Cleveland pass defense sidelined for this one. Meanwhile, the Cleveland run defense has been average at best this season and we have seen Jacobs find the end zone in two of the last three games. On the flip side, the Browns QB situation remains clouded with Nick Mullens the most likely candidate to play in this one. I'm not sure it matters all that much as this one should be all about RB Nick Chubb who figures to go off against a weak Raiders run defense that allows 125 rush yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush this season. Vegas' pass defense checks in having allowed a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt over its last three games and has been particularly soft against opposing tight ends this season. While the Browns are unlikely to have TE Austin Hooper for this game, that is a position where they do boast considerable depth. Take the over (8*). |
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12-19-21 | Bengals v. Broncos UNDER 45 | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos saw their six-game 'under' streak come to an end in last Sunday's 38-10 rout of the Lions. That outcome had everything to do with Detroit's inability to control the game (or the football). I expect a different story to unfold here. I generally like playing Bengals 'overs' in games where they're projected to be playing from behind. I'm not convinced that's the case here. QB Joe Burrow leads what at times looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the league. At others, he's relegated to game-manager and I can see that being the case here against a Broncos defense that has held up well against the pass and the run. On the flip side, the Bengals defense has held six straight opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing and the Broncos don't figure to test that streak here, noting that they've thrown for 250 yards or less in seven consecutive games. Cincinnati has also held four straight opponents to 100 yards rushing or less. Note that on two previous occasions where they scored 28 points or more in a game this season, the Broncos proceeded to score 13 and 9 points the next week. Take the under (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 42.5 | 13-19 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Steelers loss in Minnesota last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Let's face it, the Steelers defense is horrible. Yes, they'll get T.J. Watt and Joe Haden back this week but as far as I'm concerned this unit is broken. While the Titans are still injury-depleted on offense, I'm confident enough in their aggressive play-calling and in QB Ryan Tannehill that they can continue to expose the Steelers shoddy defense here. On the flip side, the Titans defense hasn't been particularly good as a whole this season either. With that being said that unit is coming off a shutout performance last week. That came against the lowly Jaguars, however, in what turned out to be head coach Urban Meyer's swan-song. The Steelers offense has quietly been putting points on the board and should find some success in this desperation spot at home. We're being given a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between the Chiefs and Chargers on Thursday night and will grab the points accordingly with Los Angeles in an underdog role. The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent this season. One thing that has been consistent about Los Angeles since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback last season is its ability to play the Chiefs tough, however. I expect nothing different here. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling right now. They've won six straight games, including four in a row ATS. Keep in mind, five of those games were played at Arrowhead. The only road win over that stretch came against a reeling Raiders squad. The Chargers are banged-up for this one but will get WR Keenan Allen back and it sounds like RB Austin Ekeler is more likely to play than not. The Chiefs are missing some key cogs as well, including DT Chris Jones. Here, we'll note that Kansas City has averaged just 18.7 points and outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 0.9 points the last six times it has played on the road after a victory by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points the last 25 times they've played at home with a posted total of 49.5 points or higher. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm not anticipating any sort of old-school defensive struggle between these two NFC North rivals on Sunday night in Green Bay. When these two teams met in Chicago earlier this season they combined to score only 38 points. The Bears defense has fallen apart since then, though. They've given up 29 points or more in four of six games since that 24-14 loss to Green Bay. The story is more about who's not on the field than who is when it comes to Chicago's injury-ravaged defense. While the Bears did allow 'only' 33 points against Arizona last Sunday, the damage could have been much worse were it not for the Cards simply easing QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back into game action after missing extended time due to injury. The Bears have quietly been slinging the football all over the field in recent weeks and should employ a similar gameplan as they'll likely be playing from behind for much of the night on Sunday. Note that they've attempted 34, 39 and 41 passes in their last three contests. You would have to go back to Halloween to find the last time they ran the football 30+ times in a game. The last time these two teams met at Lambeau Field they combined to score 66 points last season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans OVER 40.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, I do believe this relatively low posted total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks offense has made some progress with QB Russell Wilson seemingly getting more comfortable as he continues to recover from his finger injury. Last Sunday Wilson took a step in the right direction, throwing for just shy of 300 yards in a win over the 49ers. You can see that the big plays are there, Wilson simply needs to do a better job of putting the football in the right location. He should have little trouble doing so against a Texans defense that has no semblance of a pass rush and has been thrown all over by any opposing offense with a pulse this season. Rookie QB Davis Mills gets his second stint as the Texans starter under center in place of an ineffective Tyrod Taylor. The Texans would be wise to attack the Seahawks defense through the air in this one as Seattle is now without safety Jamal Adams while corner Quandre Diggs is banged up and questionable to play on Sunday as well. You can certainly envision a scenario where the Seahawks defense suffers a letdown here following a two-game stretch that saw it play on Monday Night Football and then at home against the division-rival 49ers. In two previous indoor games this season the Seahawks allowed a combined 46 points and 789 total yards at Indy and Minnesota. The Texans may appear to pose little offensive threat on paper but the Seahawks haven't exactly been a trustworthy squad this season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I don't agree with the move at all as this total has dropped a few points since opening. The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league in its current form and even with the Steelers boasting a QB that's well past his prime in Ben Roethlisberger and play-calling that leaves a lot to be desired at times, I'm willing to bet on skill players like WR Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and RB Najee Harris in this matchup. Minnesota has allowed a whopping 94 points over its last three games. Pittsburgh's defense carries a 'brand name' reputation but certainly hasn't performed up to par for much of the campaign, due to injuries and otherwise. The big news here is that the Vikes offense will be without RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen - a big reason for the downward shift in the total. That being said, I like the depth the Vikes possess on offense. RB Alexander Mattison is a Dalvin Cook clone while WR K.J. Osborn is capable of picking up some of the slack in Thielen's absence. The Steelers will undoubtedly have their hands full with Vikes WR Justin Jefferson, who should have another monster performance here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers continued their frustrating trend of alternating good and bad performances offensively in an ugly 28-13 loss in Denver last Sunday. As has been the case all season long, I expect them to bounce back offensively in this favorable matchup in Cincinnati on Sunday. After scoring 20 or less points this season, Los Angeles has put up 30, 24 and 41 points in its next game. Here, it faces a Bengals squad in line for a bit of a letdown after holding their last two opponents to a grand total of just 23 points. Keep in mind, in their two previous games they had been torched for 75 points. On the flip side, the Bengals are well-positioned to build off of last week's 41-point explosion against the Steelers as the Chargers check in having allowed 42, 34, 27, 24, 27, 37 and 28 points over their last six contests. Yes, Los Angeles is capable of stopping the pass, but the Bengals are just fine with pounding the football in Joe Mixon, who has quietly led one of the best ground attacks in football, averaging 4.5 yards per rush over their last three games. Unlike the last couple of games where the Bengals have been able to take their foot off the gas and throw the football only 29 and 25 times, I do expect the game script to require Joe Burrow to sling it around a little more here, also favoring the 'over'. Take the over (9*). |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: Will downgrade this to a 7* play with Alvin Kamara officially ruled out. I can really see this game going a couple of different ways - either the Cowboys take their frustrations out on the reeling Saints and ultimately run up the score, or New Orleans rides the emotion of playing a second straight primetime home game after last week's debacle against Buffalo, with it's do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara back on the field to an upset victory. Either way, I believe we're set up well for a high-scoring affair. We've seen this total come down a bit since opening. That's largely due to the uncertainty around who will start at quarterback for the Saints and who will be healthy enough to take the field for the Cowboys offense. We're likely going to see Taysom Hill take over under center for the Saints. There's only one reason for that move, and that's to give the offense a spark after four consecutive losses. It's easy to forget that even with a struggling Trevor Siemian at quarterback for the majority of the action, the Saints had put up over 20 points in three consecutive games prior to last Thursday's blowout defeat. As I mentioned, the Saints are also likely to get RB Alvin Kamara back on the field for this one. I don't need to tell you that he's the heart-and-soul of this offense with Drew Brees having retired and Michael Thomas sidelined due to injury. Speaking of players getting back on the field, the Cowboys should have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back for this one. Even without that dynamic duo, Dallas still scored 33 points in last week's overtime loss to the Raiders. As long as the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore aggressively calling plays on offense, there's reason to believe they can light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense, while stout at times, has sagged lately, largely due to shouldering so much of the load over the course of the season. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed opponents to connect on better than 72% of their passes. The last two meetings in this series have been extremely low-scoring, totaling just 23 and 22 points. That's only serving to give us additional value with the 'over' in this one. Take the over (7*). |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings huge win over the Packers last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Minnesota's offense has taken flight ever since that embarrassing performance at home against the Cowboys on Halloween Night. Over their last three games, the Vikes have scored a whopping 92 points. While the 49ers have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined I don't see this as an all-that-imposing matchup for the Minnesota offense. Vikes WR Justin Jefferson is absolutely abusing opposing secondaries and the 49ers pass defense doesn't match up particularly well. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has quietly come around, scoring 30 or more points in three of their last four contests. A healthy TE George Kittle has certainly made a big difference. Here, the Niners catch an undermanned Vikings defense that showed plenty of holes in last week's narrow victory over the Packers. Whether the Niners choose to attack the Vikes on the ground or through the air they should be able to find considerable success. Take the over (9*). |
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11-28-21 | Chargers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. With a banged-up offense that could be without its top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, I'm expecting the Cowboys to methodically move the football with long, clock-churning drives on offense while leaning on their defense to take care of the rest in what I feel projects as a relatively low-scoring game in Big D on Thursday afternoon. The Raiders are just looking to sustain a drive or two at this point. They've been held to just 16, 14 and 13 points over their last three games and this doesn't figure to be an ideal 'get right' spot against a Cowboys team coming off an ugly loss in Kansas City on Sunday. The wheels have quite simply come off for the Raiders offense as teams have counter-punched their renewed commitment to play action under coordinator Greg Olson. In the last two games combined, Las Vegas has only managed to muster 32 rush attempts and 62 pass attempts and both of those games were played at home where you would assume it would be able to control the tempo of the game a little better. The Cowboys defense quietly continues to dominate. Over their last six games they've allowed a miserly 111-of-188 (59%) passing. Over their last five contests they haven't allowed a single opponent to throw for more than 244 yards. Only the Broncos were really able to make much headway on the ground, and as you know that game was a bit of an anomaly as the Cowboys inexplicably fell by a 30-16 score. Take the under (9*). |