Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Florida State -7

The Florida State Seminoles have played a brutal schedule with their last five games coming against Florida, UNLV, Colorado, Georgia and UNC.  They gave the Tar Heels all they could handle on the road last time out, and now they have had a week off to get ready to face South Florida.  This is a big step down in class for the Seminoles, and I look for them to take advantage.

South Florida is 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming at home over South Carolina State and Northern Iowa.  They were upset twice at home, losing to Central Michigan by 5 as 17-point favorites and to Maine by 11 as 8.5-point favorites.  They lost their two road games and failed to cover in both as well, losing by 19 at Hofstra as 5.5-point dogs and by 10 at UMass as 7-point dogs.

While Florida State has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, South Florida has faced the 272nd-ranked schedule.  I think that difference in SOS is a big reason the Seminoles will roll in this matchup with one of the worst teams they have faced this season.

These teams have a common opponent in Central Michigan.  While South Florida was upset by 5 at home by Central Michigan, Florida State rolled by 27 over the Chippewas at home.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

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20* Pacers/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 241.5

It's no surprise that both semifinal games of the In-Season Tournament went UNDER the total.  These teams are actually playing defense in these win-or-go-home games.  It also helps that there's $500,000 on the line to each player on the winning team.

More defense will be played tonight in the championship game between the Pacers and Lakers with both teams desperate to win this tournament and collect that money.  I've been backing Pacers overs all season, but now is the time to take a Pacers under.

The Lakers rank 7th in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating this season.  They are the type of team that will slow it down to play at the pace they are comfortable with and not let Indiana dictate what they do.  The Lakers have held the Pelicans to 89 points, the Suns to 103 and the Rockets to 97 in their last three games coming in, all three going well UNDER the total.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Indiana) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60-75) are 51-13 (79.7%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* UCLA/Villanova FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 127.5

Both Villanova and UCLA are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Villanova ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted defense.  UCLA ranks 341st in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted defense.  

The UNDER is 6-1 in all UCLA games this season.  Now they could be without G Sebastian Mack (14.7 PPG), who left their last game with a toe injury and is questionable to play in this one.

Villanova is 5-5 UNDER but would be 7-3 UNDER if not for overtime.  Now the Wildcats are in real trouble offensively without their best player in Justin Moore (13.3 PPG), who suffered a knee injury in the OT loss to Kansas State last time out.  He won't be available today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Indiana/Auburn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Hoosiers have been impressive this season.  They are 7-1 with their only loss coming against defending national champion Connecticut.  They have been very impressive in their last three games beating Harvard by 13 as 7-point favorites on a neutral, topping Maryland by 12 as 2-point home favorites and upsetting Michigan 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs.

Auburn is 5-2 this season but none of the five wins were that impressive as they came against overmatched competition.  They also lost 69-64 at Appalachian State as a 7.5-point favorite and have been favored all seven games, so they have been overvalued.  They lost 88-82 to Baylor on a neutral in the opener.

This one will be played on a neutral as well.  Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games away from home following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Bruce Pearl is 4-12 ATS after forcing the last opponent to commit 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* St. Mary's/Colorado State CBSSN ANNIHILATOR on St. Mary's +5.5

A lot was expected of St. Mary's coming into the season.  But after a slow start with some mixed results against a brutal schedule that ranks 40th in the country, I think the time is now to 'buy low' on the Gaels.  They have a chance to get a signature win here against a Colorado State team that is overvalued after a 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.

We saw Colorado State fail to live up to expectations last game, only beating Denver 90-80 as 20.5-pint favorites.  They have been through the gauntlet with Creighton, Colorado and Washington in their three games prior.  They won't have much left in the tank for St. Mary's, especially since they are missing two of their best players.

Colordado State is without Jalen Lake (7.7 PPG) and Josiah Strong (8.5 PPG), who both got injured recently and aren't expected to return until January.  The Rams will be short-handed until then, and now is a good time to fade them especially since they are getting a lot of hype with their unbeaten record.

Colorado State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 home games following three or more consecutive overs.  The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after forcing 11 or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games.  St. Mary's is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  Bet St. Mary's Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +10

UC-Irvine is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 6-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They pulled the 70-60 upset as 12.5-point dogs at USC.  They did lose by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs and by 10 at Utah State as 6.5-point dogs, so they have been through the gauntlet.  They have faced the 25th-toughest schedule in the entire country and won't be phased by San Diego State.

The Aztecs came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  San Diego State is 7-2 SU but 2-6 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  They were upset by Grand Canyon last time out.  They have no business being double-digit favorites here.

UC-Irvine is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Anteaters are 35-12 ATS in their last 47 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Grand Canyon +5.5

Grand Canyon is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Antelopes are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  They beat San Diego State and San Francisco already this season.  And now they will give Liberty all they can handle.

Liberty is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers from what they did against some soft competition.  When they stepped up in class they lost 83-58 to Florida Atlantic and didn't look like they belonged at all.  They followed that up with a 76-67 upset loss to Charleston.

Liberty is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games with a total set of 140 to 149.9 points.  Grand Canyon is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bryce Drew is 16-7 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Antelopes.  Drew is 9-2 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game as their head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They have six home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

This won't be a home game but it might as well be played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  They take on an Arkansas team that just hasn't fare well at all away from home.  The Razorbacks are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season.  They only beat Stanford by 3 as 6.5-point favorites, were upset by 5 by Memphis and were crushed by 15 by North Carolina.  The Razorbacks are getting too much respect for their recent upset home win over Duke.

Arkansas is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Razorbacks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. explosive offensive teams scoring 84 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.