15* Packers/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +7

The Packers picked up a huge 22-21 win over Atlanta last week to keep their playoff hopes alive. They remain just a half-game back of the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears for first place in the NFC North, so they are very much still in this thing. That was a win they desperately needed, and one that they can build off of. Matt Flynn has played well in place of Aaron Rodgers, and he should be looking forward to the opportunity of facing this soft Dallas defense Sunday.

The Cowboys are reeling off a 28-45 loss to Chicago on ESPN

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Packers/Cowboys OVER 48

The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL, and playing in perfect conditions in the dome at Cowboys Stadium, I fully expect both offenses to light up the scoreboard.

The Cowboys give up 26.8 points and 426.8 yards per game to rank last in the league in total defense. They should never have gotten rid of Rex Ryan, but once again injuries have decimated them on this side of the football.

Green Bay hasn't been much better, giving up 25.1 points and 369.4 yards per game to rank 21st in the league in total defense. The Packers have been at their worst on this side of the ball on the road, yielding 30.5 pints and 381 yards per game away from home.

Both offenses have played well this season. Dallas ranks 3rd in the league in scoring offense at 27.5 points per game. It is putting up 34.0 points per game at home this season. Green Bay ranks 12th in scoring offense (24.3 points/game) and 5th in total offense (394.5 yards/game).

The OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' last six games overall. Five of those six games have seen 50 or more combined points, and all four games that were played in a dome went OVER the total. Green Bay has combined with two of its last three opponents for 50 or more points.

This has been a very high-scoring series in year's past. The OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings overall. The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in offense-friendly Dallas dating back to 1993. Six of those nine meetings have seen 50 or more combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -2.5

The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. Once again, they are not getting the respect they deserve as only a 2.5-point road favorite at Tennessee in Week 15 Sunday.

The Cardinals have gone 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-24 as a 3.5-point dog at Philadelphia, which might be the only team that is playing better football than the Cardinals right now. Four of Arizona's five wins during this stretch have come by 13 points or more.

While Arizona has a lot to play for as it trails San Francisco and Carolina by one game for the final Wild Card spot, Tennessee has nothing to play for. The Titans have lost four of their last five games overall, including a 28-51 setback at Denver last week. They now have no chance to make the playoffs. It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after last week's beat down knowing there's no reason to.

Arizona has one of the best stop units in the league. It is giving up just 19.8 points and 311.7 yards per game to rank 5th in the league in total defense. Tennessee will have a hard time doing much of anything offensively. The Titans rank 20th in the league in total offense at 328.7 yards per game.

While the defense has been dynamite for the Cardinals, the offense has been equally as important to the turnaround this season. Carson Palmer has completed a league-high 70.4 percent of his passes for an average of 326.0 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions over the past four weeks. He has two dynamic receivers in Michael Floyd (57 receptions, 899 yards, 4 TD) and Larry Fitzgerald (67, 774, 10 TD), who have both benefited from Palmer signing with the team.

The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse this season. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Arizona. Take the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the entire league. They have won five straight while going 4-1 against the spread in the process with their only non-cover coming in a 24-21 home win over Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite. That victory has proven to be a pretty impressive one considering how well the Cardinals have been playing of late. The Eagles also have wins over playoff contenders in Green Bay (27-13) and Detroit (34-20) during this stretch.

Chip Kelly

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Redskins +7

The Redskins could not be viewed any worse in the eyes of the betting public right now. After five straight non-covers, oddsmakers have really had to adjust the power ranking on this team. It is at an all-time low dating back to the beginning of last season, so there will be some value with this team going forward. After getting embarrassed by Kansas City last week, I look for the Redskins to come back and show tremendous pride this week and to lay it all on the line.

Atlanta has to be pretty demoralized after losing two of its last three games by a combined five points. It

20* Army/Navy Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Army +13

There

20* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +10.5

The Chargers are right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, but they really cannot afford to lose another game if they want to make it into the playoffs. They trail both Baltimore and Miami by just one game for the 6th and final seed in the AFC. They

20* Cowboys/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +1.5

The Bears are essentially in a must-win situation Monday as they trail the Detroit Lions by two games for first place in the NFC North. That

20* Panthers/Saints NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans -3

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the New Orleans Saints as a favorite by a field goal or less at home. I'm going to take full advantage and back the Saints Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers with first place in the NFC South on the line.

The reason this line has been set so low is a combination of the Saints looking horrible at Seattle on Monday Night Football, and the Panthers coming in on an eight-game winning streak. These two factors have created some excellent line value for us, and we'll take advantage.

The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009. They are 8-1 ATS in home games following one or more consecutive losses over the past three seasons. Payton is 15-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans.

Simply put, New Orleans does not lose at home. It is a perfect 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread at home this season, outscoring opponents 33.2 to 15.8, or by an average of 17.4 points per game. Their only non-cover came in a 23-20 win over the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Saints outgianed the 49ers 387-196 for the game.

New Orleans is a ridiculous 17-4 ATS as a home favorite over the past three seasons, winning by an average of 16.8 points per game in this spot. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games overall. Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -6

The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the league over the past five weeks. They have gone 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread during this stretch to put themselves right in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race. They have been dominant in their last five contests, outgaining all five of their opponents by 43 or more yards. Their only loss during this stretch came at Philadelphia by a final of 21-24 last week.

While the Cardinals have a realistic shot to make the playoffs, the Rams really do not. They have lost four of their last six games coming in to drop to 5-7 on the season. They needed to make their stand last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 13-23 loss at San Francisco. The reason that loss was so huge is because the 49ers are the team they are trailing for the 6th and final seed in the NFC. St. Louis trails San Francisco by three games, but that

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -2.5

This is a statement game for the San Francisco 49ers. They were embarrassed by a final of 29-3 at Seattle in their first meeting this season for their second straight blowout at the hands of the Seahawks on the road. It's revenge time for the 49ers.

San Francisco simply needs this win more. It is barely hanging on to the 6th seed in the NFC and needs to come close to winning out to make the playoffs. It also needs the win for a shot of confidence, proving to itself that it can beat a good team.

Seattle is in a huge letdown spot here off its biggest win of the season. It blew out the New Orleans Saints on ESPN's Monday Night Football by a final of 34-7 to all but wrap up home-field advantage in the playoffs. Having already beaten the Saints (9-3) and Panthers (9-3), the Seahawks (11-1) now hold a three-game lead over both teams since they own the tiebreaker.

Seattle can afford to lose two more games this season and still get the No. 1 seed. Plus, coming off a Monday Night game, the Seahawks will now have one fewer day to prepare for San Francisco. They are outscoring opponents by 10.0 points per game less on the road than they are at home this year.

"Any time you play a team and you lose, the next time you face them is definitely a statement game," San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis said. "Not just for us, but for anybody."

San Francisco is a perfect 9-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the past three seasons. Seattle is 5-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 or more points since 1992. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. San Francisco is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games overall, and 19-8-1 ATS in its last 28 home games. Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the best teams in the AFC in 2013. Their numbers really show their dominance as well. They are putting up 24.3 points and 363.7 yards per game to rank 12th in the league in total offense. They are giving up just 18.0 points and 314.8 yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total defense. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by roughly 49 yards per game, which is the sign of a dominant team.

While Cincinnati has been every bit as good as its record, Indianapolis has been a complete fraud. The Colts have managed to go 8-4 this season despite getting outgained by roughly 34 yards per game on the season. They really miss Reggie Wayne, and they simply have been fortunate to win their share of close games to this point. Indianapolis ranks 20th in the league in total offense at 333.5 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 367.2 yards per contest.

Home-field advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between Cincinnati and Indianapolis. In fact, the home team has won four straight meetings all by six points or more. Dating back further, the home team has won seven of the past eight meetings with all seven of those wins coming by six points or more as well. The Bengals are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.4 points per game.

Andrew Luck is being asked to do too much. Any time you take a dome team like the Colts and move them outside, you have to be concerned. Luck has thrown 18 touchdowns against 14 interceptions outdoors in his career. Away from Indianapolis, Luck has thrown 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He has only played in one game where it was less than 40 degrees out, and he completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Luck is much better in warmer weather dating back to his time at Stanford.

Darrius Heyward-Bey hasn't been able to fill in for Wayne as he continues to have problems with the drops. Rookie left guard Hugh Thornton and tackle Jeffrey Linkenbach II are both questionable to play Sunday. The Colts were already without guard Donald Thomas for the season, so they are clearly banged up along the offensive line.

The strength of the Bengals' defense is their front seven, and I look for them to dominate the point of attack in this one. The Bengals only allowed San Diego into the red zone once in 11 drives last week, forcing a fumble. They won 17-10 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo Bills +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting too much respect from the books as a field goal favorite over the Buffalo Bills Sunday. The Bucs have won three of their last four games overall, but had a couple of those games handed to them. Their true colors showed in a 6-27 loss at Carolina last week.

The Bucs' win over the Dolphins was legit, but their wins over the Falcons and Lions were not. Tampa was +8 in turnover differential against the Lions and Falcons combined. They were outgained by Detroit 229-391 and should have never won that game. They weren't as fortunate against the Panthers, getting outgained 204-426 in their 21-point loss last week.

Now, the momentum that Tampa Bay had built up has come to a complete halt, yet they are still getting respect from the books. Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league that has a losing record. They are much better than their 4-8 mark would indicate, but seven of their eight losses have come after blown leads in the game.

Tampa Bay is only putting up 295.2 yards per game to rank 31st in the league in total offense. It is getting outgained by an average of 57.5 yards per game, so it is every bit as bad as its 3-9 record would indicate. Buffalo is only getting outgained by 16.9 yards per game, which is very impressive when you consider that it has played a quarterback carousel all season.

However, E.J. Manuel is finally healthy and ready to lead this team to a big finish. Manuel has thrown for 1,595 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 120 yards and a score. He has clearly been their best quarterback. C.J. Spiller (656 yards, 2 TD) and Fred Jackson (633 yards, 7 TD) form a great 1-2 punch in the backfield, and they lead the league's fourth-best rushing attack at 139.2 yards per game.

The Bucs have allowed 104 or more rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. That includes 198 yards to Seattle, 152 to Atlanta and 163 to Carolina. Clearly, the Bills have an excellent chance to move the ball on the ground in this one to take some of the pressure off of Manuel. Another key fact is that the Bills are still alive for the playoffs, while the Bucs are not. So, you can expect Buffalo to fight until the finish line.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after scoring 14 points or less last game are 82-46 (64.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tampa Bay is 0-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (winning percentage of 25% to 40%) over the last three seasons. It is losing by an average of 17.1 points per game in this spot.

The Bucs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 December games. Buffalo is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. Tampa Bay is 12-28-1 ATS in its last 41 home games. Roll with the Bills Sunday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -3

The South Alabama Jaguars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They should be a much heavier favorite Saturday at home against the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns. However, this team continues to get disrespected by the books, while the Rajin' Cajuns continue to get too much respect.

The situation really favors South Alabama in this one. It will be playing to become bowl eligible and to pick up its all-important 6th win of the season. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette has already wrapped up the Sun Belt Title due to its head-to-head victory over Arkansas State. Plus, it has already been decided that Lafayette will play in the New Orleans Bowl against Tulane, so its fate is already decided. The Rajin' Cajuns will have a hard time being motivated for this game given the situation.

Lafayette really hasn't been playing well for weeks. It has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall heading in. It beat New Mexico State (49-35) as a 32.5-point favorite, beat Troy (41-36) as a 14-point favorite, beat Georgia State (35-21) as a 20.5-point favorite, and lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe (28-31) as an 18-point favorite.

South Alabama has saved its best football of the season for laste. It is coming off back-to-back blowout victories with a 36-14 home win over Louisiana-Monroe as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 38-17 win at Georgia State as an 8-point favorite. The Jaguars outgained the Warhawks 424-274 in their home win, and outgained the Panthers 522-345 in their road victory. Those two wins have put them in position to become bowl eligible Saturday with another victory.

Even if Lafayette was fully healthy, I believe this line would be off. However, the Rajin' Cajuns are expected to be without starting quarterback Terrance Broadway Saturday, who is listed as doubtful with a wrist injury. That would be a huge loss considering Broadway is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 2,276 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 421 yards and eight scores. Without his dual-threat ability, the Rajin' Cajuns will be much easier to defend.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. These four trends combine for a 20-2 system backing the Jaguars. Bet South Alabama Saturday.

15* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 Championship ANNIHILATOR on Arizona State -3

The Arizona State Sun Devils have put together a tremendous run to make the Pac-12 Title Game and to host it as well. They have won seven straight games coming in, which includes road wins at Utah and UCLA, and blowout home wins over the likes of Washington (53-24), Oregon State (30-17) and Arizona (58-21). When you compare common opponents, it

15* Oklahoma/Oky State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10

This is a rivalry game, and Oklahoma would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma State

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Rice +6.5

The public perception of Marshall right now is at an all-time high, while the public perception of Rice is certainly wavering. That

15* Bowling Green/Northern Illinois MAC Championship No-Brainer on Bowling Green +5

The Bowling Green Falcons could be the toughest team that Northern Illinois has faced all season. This is a team that could easily be 11-1 right now if not for losses to Toledo and Mississippi State by a combined four points. This team is the real deal and playing its best football of the season coming in. It has gone 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in its last four games overall, which is what it took to get a trip to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit.

Not only have the Falcons been winning, they

15* Texans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3

The Texans might be the best 2-10 team in the history of the NFL. If you looked at all of their statistics and not their record, you would think that this is a playoff team. The Texans rank 3rd in the league in total defense at 303.9 yards per game allowed, and 10th in total offense at 365.2 yards per game gained. The problem is that the Texans have lost seven games by a touchdown or less, so they simply haven

20* Louisville/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +3.5

The Bearcats have saved their best football of the season for last. They have won six straight games coming in with four of those victories coming by double-digits. They now still have a shot to win the American Athletic with some help from SMU this weekend, which would put them in a BCS Bowl. No matter what Louisville does, it won

25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6

The Saints are well-rested coming into this one. They played last Thursday in a hard-fought win at Atlanta, which is a big division rival and a solid win no matter how poor the Falcons have been this season. Getting that extra rest negates most of the advantage that the Seahawks would have had coming off their bye week. I believe the rest factor is probably a non-issue because of this.

New Orleans is playing its best football of the season heading into this contest. It is coming off three straight victories, including home wins over both the Dallas Cowboys (49-17) and San Francisco 49ers (23-20). Sure, the Saints do have two road losses, but they essentially gave both of those games away in setbacks against New England (27-30) and New York (20-26). The Patriots scored the game-winner with five seconds left, while the Jets managed to win despite getting outgained 407-338 for the game.

Looking at the numbers, it

15* Rams/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis +9

The Rams have fought back to put themselves in position to pull within one game of the 49ers for the 6th and final wild card spot in the NFC. You know they will be laying it all on the field Sunday with their season essentially on the line in this one. That

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

If the season were to end today, the Tennessee Titans would be in the playoffs. They clearly have a lot to play for the rest of the way, and would love nothing more than to pull within one game of Indianapolis for first place in the AFC South. That

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets Money Line (-121)

The Jets will certainly be motivated for a win Sunday following back-to-back blowout road losses where they simply gave the games away by committing a combined seven turnovers. The good news is that the Jets are still tied for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC, so they still have a ton to play for. Even better news is the fact that they will be returning home, which is where they have clearly played their best football of the season.

Indeed, New York is 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this season. It has beaten some very good teams at home, too. The Jets beat the New England Patriots by a final of 30-27 at MetLife Stadium back on October 20. They also knocked off the New Orleans Saints at home by a final of 26-20 on November 3. With how well they have played at home, getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly be a gift from oddsmakers.

Both teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but there

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

The Jaguars are playing their best football of the season of late. They have also played their best football on the road this year. They are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread in their last two road games, beating Tennessee (29-27) as an 11.5-point underdog, while also topping Houston (13-6) outright as a 10.5-point dog. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, and as a result their lines have been inflated.

Asking the Browns to lay a touchdown to any team is asking a lot. That

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5

This is a great spot to fade the Carolina Panthers. They overcame a double-digit deficit last week in a big letdown spot against the Dolphins to win by a final of 20-16. If they would have lost that game, they would have come back focused.

Now, I fully expect them to have a mental lapse this week considering they have their biggest game of the season on deck next week against the New Orleans Saints. They will be overlooking the Buccaneers in this one, allowing Tampa to not only stay within the spread, but likely win this game outright.

Overlooking the Bucs has been a trend for every team they have faced over the past three weeks. They have rolled off three straight victories over the Dolphins (22-19), Falcons (41-28) and Lions (24-21). However, their solid play started a week before this winning streak started in a 24-27 overtime loss at Seattle as a 16-point underdog.

Tampa Bay might be the most underrated team in the league right now. Its 0-8 start was an absolute fluke as it found a way to lose several close games, including setbacks against the Jets (17-18), Saints (14-16) and Cardinals (10-13). Five of its eight losses this season have come by 8 points or less.

The biggest reason for the Bucs turnaround has been the play of quarterback Mike Glennon, who is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. In his last six starts, Glennon has thrown nine touchdowns against only one interception. His only poor start came back in his first start of the season in Week 4 against the Cardinals.

Carolina only averages 317.9 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total offense. It relies heavily on its running game, which ranks 9th in the league at 126.3 yards per game. Well, the Bucs have the perfect antidote, boasting a run defense that ranks 9th in the league at 101.6 yards per game. The key to slowing down the Panthers is stopping their running game, and the Bucs have the personnel to do it, especially with the likely return of linebacker Mason Foster (shoulder) this week.

Having already beaten the Bucs earlier this season in their first meeting, and with the Saints on deck, it's only human nature for the Panthers to not bring their full focus to the field Sunday. This team was way undervalued midseason due to a slow start, but after seven straight victories, the Panthers are now overrated, and that is reflected in this line. We'll take advantage.

The Buccaneers are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games following a win. Tampa Bay is 6-1 against the number in its last seven games vs. at team with a winning record, time and time again stepping up its game when playing what is perceived to be a superior team. The Buccaneers are also 19-7 against the number in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa Bay is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 road games overall. Take the Buccaneers Sunday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -3

The USC Trojans have been revived under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. They have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread with Oregeron at the helm with their only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. They have beaten some very good teams along the way, topping Arizona (38-31), Utah (19-3) and Stanford (20-17) at home, while also going on the road and knocking off Oregon State (31-14). No team in the country wants to play this team right now.

While the Trojans come into this game with a ton of momentum, the Bruins will be in a tough state of mind following their 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last week. That game was essentially for the Pac-12 South Title, and I foresee UCLA suffering a hangover this week because of it. I also expect that USC will be motivated to avenge last year

15* Notre Dame/Stanford Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +16

This is an awfully big number for a rivalry game like this one. That

15* Penn State/Wisconsin ESPN No-Brainer on Penn State +24.5

The Wisconsin Badgers were undervalued all season up to this point. As a result, they have gone 9-1-1 against the spread in their 11 games this season. The betting public has jumped all over this team because of it, and now their numbers have been inflated over the past two weeks.

Wisconsin was overvalued as a 15.5-point favorite at Minnesota last week, winning by a final of 20-7 to miss the cover. Now, it is certainly overvalued again as a 24.5-point favorite against a quality Penn State team that will give it a run for its money.

Remember, Penn State was only a 15-point underdog at Ohio State on October 26. Now, oddsmakers are giving the Nittany Lions nearly 10 more points against Wisconsin, which lost to Ohio State. That fact alone shows you how there is a ton of value in backing the Nittany Lions in this game Saturday.

The key to stopping Wisconsin is stopping its running game. The 11 opponents that Penn State has faced this season average 179 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. The Nittany Lions have held those 11 opponents to well below their season average, yielding just 146 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. That shows you that Penn State is solid against the run.

Last year, Penn State beat Wisconsin by a final of 24-21 as a 1-point home favorite. It held the Badgers to just 158 rushing yards on 43 carries in the win, giving up a mere 3.7 yards per carry in the win. I don't believe there is that much difference between these teams from last year to this year, so there's no way the Badgers should be laying 24.5 points in the rematch.

Plays on road underdogs (PENN ST) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-9 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. They have not lost two straight games this season, bouncing back from each of their first four losses with a victory in their next game. Take Penn State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +3

The Syracuse Orange have plenty of reason to be motivated for a win at home Saturday. First, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Secondly, this is Senior Day, so they want to send their seniors out with a victory in their final home game.

Boston College is one of the most overrated teams in the country, and it should not be favored here. It is 7-4 on the season but nowhere near as good as its record. The Eagles rank 89th in the country in total offense at 370.4 yards per game, and 76th in total defense at 417.1 yards per game. As you can see, they are getting outgained by roughly 47 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team with a losing record than one that is 7-4.

The biggest strength of Boston College is its running game, which averaged 221 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. The biggest strength of the Syracuse defense is its ability to stop the run. The Orange rank 27th in the country against the run, giving up just 133.5 yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.

Syracuse is 3-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents 29.8 to 16.6, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. Boston College is just 2-3 on the road this year, getting outscored 21.6 to 30.6, or by an average of 9.0 points per game. Its only wins came at Maryland (29-26) as a 2-point favorite and at New Mexico State (48-34) as a 25-point favorite.

The Orange are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21 home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston College is 2-9 against the number in its last 11 road games. Syracuse is 7-2-1 against the number in its last 10 home games. Roll with Syracuse Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +9

The Temple Owls are vastly underrated due to their 1-10 record right now. I have no doubt this is much better than a 1-10 team, and they have proven it in the second half of the season by playing several very good teams close.

Since a 33-14 home win over Army on October 14, the Owls have lost each of their last four games by 10 points or fewer. They fell on the road to SMU (49-59) as a 14-point dog and at Rutgers (20-23) as an 11.5-point dog. They also lost at home to UCF (36-39) as a 17.5-point dog, and against UConn (21-28) as a 6-point favorite. They obviously should not have lost to the Huskies, outgaining them 372-235 for the game, but their three turnovers gave that game away.

The reason for the improvement of this team has been quarterback P.J. Walker, who has been an absolute playmaker for this offense since being inserted into the starting role against Louisville. Walker has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,756 yards with 16 touchdowns against seven interceptions, while also rushing for 273 yards and three scores. His dual-threat ability adds a dimension to this offense that it did not have before. The Owls are 6-1 ATS with Walker as their starter.

Memphis has no business being more than a touchdown favorite here. While it has some solid performances against good teams like Temple does, the fact of the matter is that its only three wins this season have come against Arkansas State, Tennessee-Martin and South Florida. Off a heartbreaking loss to Louisville last week by a touchdown, the Tigers could easily suffer a hangover effect this week, which was similar to what Temple suffered last week in a loss to UConn after falling to UCF by a field goal the previous week.

Temple is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games following two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts. The Owls are 7-1 against the number as an underdog this season. Memphis is 5-11 against the spread in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Temple Saturday.

15* South Florida/UCF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +27

The Central Florida Knights are way overvalued right now due to their 9-1 start. The betting public has been all over them of late, which has inflated this number. At 2-8 on the season, the South Florida Bulls come into this game undervalued. I look for this to be a much closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating Friday night.

While South Florida has lost four straight coming in, I've seen enough from this team against quality competition to know that the Bulls can hang tough in this one. They beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home despite being a 10.5-point underdog. They also went on the road and only lost 23-35 at Houston, throwing for 311 yards in the loss. That's the same Houston team that nearly beat UCF, losing 14-19 on the road.

South Florida has really turned up its pressure defensively the past two weeks, limiting Memphis to just 242 total yards, and SMU to a mere 280 total yards. The Bulls rank 29th in the country in total defense at 355.8 yards per game allowed. UCF will have a hard time scoring 27 points, let alone winning by 27.

The Knights have played in several close games this year and are really fortunate to be 9-1 right now. Six of their 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, but they've gone 5-1 in those contests. That includes victories over lowly Memphis (24-17) and Temple (39-36). If Memphis (3-7) and Temple (1-10) can compete with UCF, then South Florida can, too.

Plays on a road team (S FLORIDA) - after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. UCF is 0-6 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the past two seasons. The Knights are 2-10 against the number off a home win over the last three years. Roll with South Florida Friday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -7.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are fighting for a BCS bowl. Not only do they need to continue to win, but they need to do so impressively. A blowout road victory against a quality San Jose State team would certainly help their cause. Winning by big margins has been no problem for the Bulldogs all season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 19.8 points per game on the season. They have been at their best on the road, outscoring foes by 24.3 points per game away from home.

Fresno State boasts an offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 575.6 total yards per game, including 46.8 points per game. Quarterback Derek Carr deserves serious Heisman Trophy consideration. The senior is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,948 yards with 39 touchdowns against four interceptions. Carr and company should have their way with a San Jose State stop unit that is giving up 33.5 points and 442.3 yards per game to rank 98th in the country in total defense.

San Jose State has certainly taken a step back from last season. They are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to become bowl eligible, losing each of their last three games while going 0-3 against the spread in the process. That includes home losses to San Diego State (30-34) and Navy (52-58), as well as a blowout road loss at Nevada (16-38). That setback against Nevada was the fourth blowout loss suffered by the Trojans this season. They were also beaten by Stanford (13-34), Minnesota (24-43) and Utah State (12-40).

Fresno State is 15-2 straight up in its last 17 meetings with San Jose State. Plays against any team (SAN JOSE ST)

15* Miami/Pittsburgh ABC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3

The Pittsburgh Panthers have played their best football of the season over the past three weeks coming in. They have picked up a home win over Notre Dame (28-21) as well as a road win at Syracuse (17-16). They did lose to North Carolina (27-34), but few teams in the country are playing as well as the Tar Heels right now. This is a team that will be really motivated to put an end to Miami

20* Steelers/Ravens Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on Pittsburgh +3

The Steelers are playing their best football of the season over the past three weeks to get right back into the thick if the playoff race in the AFC. They have won three straight and five of their last seven games overall to get to 5-6 on the season and tied with several teams for the 6th and final Wild Card spot in the conference.

All three of their wins during this streak have come by double-digits with home victories over Buffalo (23-10) and Detroit (37-27), as well as a road win at Cleveland (27-11). The Steelers are playing mistake-free football now unlike they were at the beginning of the year, turning the ball over just once int heir last three contests.

Ben Roethlisberger has really stepped of his game of late. The veteran has thrown for an average of 297.0 yards per game with 11 touchdowns against three interceptions in his last four games overall. Antonio Brown is one of the top receivers in the game, catching 80 balls for 1,044 yards and six touchdowns.

While the Steelers have been very impressive offensively of late, the Ravens have taken a big step back on that side of the ball this year. They rank 29th in the league in total offense at 308.8 yards per game. They

15* Raiders/Cowboys Mid-Afternoon FEAST on Oakland +9

Believe it or not, the Raiders are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They only trail the Tennessee Titans (5-6) by one game for the sixth seed. Sure, they will probably have to almost win out to make it, but they aren

15* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +7

There

15* WMU/NIU MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +36.5

The betting public has been all over Northern Illinois this season, especially over the last several weeks. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-10 Western Michigan squad. When oddsmakers realize this, they are forced to set a number higher than it should be to try and get even money on both sides. There

20* 49ers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +6

The Redskins put together a big run at the end of last season by winning their final seven games to capture the NFC East Title. With the division as wide open as ever, they still have to feel like they have a shot with another big finish in 2013. They only trail the Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 games for first place within the division.

Washington has fallen victim to a pretty tough schedule thus far as six of its first 10 games have been on the road. It is 2-2 at home with its only losses coming to the Eagles and Lions by a combined 13 points. It has played well in its last two home games, beating both Chicago (45-41) and San Diego (30-24). San Francisco

15* Colts/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -3

The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point favorite over the Indianapolis Colts, who are one of the most overrated teams in the league. I'll take advantage and back Arizona at home as it rolls to a blowout victory over the Colts.

The Cardinals come in playing their best football of the season. They have won three straight overall with home victories over the Falcons (27-13) and Texans (27-24), along with a road victory over the Jaguars (27-14). Carson Palmer threw for over 400 yards last week and appears to be hitting his stride as the offense tries to keep up with the excellent play of the defense.

Arizona is giving up just 21.2 points and 324.9 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. This stop unit has really dug its teeth in during their 3-game winning streak. The Cardinals have held their last three opponents to 45.0 yards per game on the ground and 267.0 yards per game overall.

It's easy to see that Indianapolis is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It ranks 13th in the league in total offense at 349.9 yards per game, and 24th in total defense at 365.0 yards per game. As you can see, it is getting outgained by 15.1 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that would be 4-6 right now rather than 7-3. However, the Colts have simply been fortunate in close games for a second straight year.

After going 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, the Colts have gone 5-1 in such games this season. The good news is that I don't believe this game will be close at all as the Cardinals win going away. That being said, there's no question that these records in close games come close to evening out over time, and the Colts aren't going to continue being this fortunate for long. That's especially the case now that they are without leading receiver Reggie Wayne for the rest of the season, and the offense hasn't been nearly as effective without him.

Arizona is 4-1 at home this season. The Cardinals are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game. Arizona is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season over the past three seasons. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5

The Buccaneers have showed a ton of pride over the past couple of weeks by beating Miami (22-19) and Atlanta (41-28) at home. They have shown that they are not going to pack it in, and would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler going forward. There

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -1

The St. Louis Rams are a gritty team that will not give an inch under Jeff Fisher. They are coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 38-8 victory at Indianapolis to get back to 4-6 on the season. This team still believes there is a shot to make the playoffs with a big finish, and they won't give in until they are eliminated. Now, the Rams have had two full weeks to prepare for Chicago as they are coming off their bye week.

This is a team that has been playing well for a while now, going 3-3 in their last six games overall. Even in their three losses they played solid football. The Rams actually outgained the Panthers 317-282 in a 15-30 road loss. They outgained the Seahawks 339-135 in a 9-14 home loss in a game they obviously should have won. They were even in yards against the Titans 363-363 in a 21-28 home loss as well.

St. Louis has stayed relatively healthy outside of quarterback Sam Bradford, but backup Kellen Clemens has played very well in his place. Defensively, the Rams are very healthy. Chicago is also on to its backup quarterback in Josh McCown, which hasn't been much of a step down from starter Jay Cutler, either. However, the Bears have been ravaged by injuries defensively. Starters Lance Briggs (shoulder), Charles Tillman (triceps), Henry Melton (knee) and D.J. Williams (chest) are all out. Stephen Paea (toe) is doubtful as well.

The interior of Chicago's defense has been extremely vulnerable due to these injuries. Indeed, the Bears have given up an average 174, 145, 199, and 209 rushing yards in their last four games, respectively. They rank 31st in the league against the run, giving up 133.9 yards per game, and have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight and four of five.

St. Louis running back Zac Stacy will be in line for a big day on the ground. The Rams have rushed for 140, 160 and 200 yards in their last three games, respectively, with Stacy doing most of the work over that stretch. Stacy has rushed for 323 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games overall. I look for St. Louis to control the game with its rushing attack, while its underrated defense keeps McCown and company in check.

Plays on favorites (ST LOUIS) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Bears are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win. St. Louis is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a .500 road record or better. Roll with the Rams Sunday.

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +5

It

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +5

The Miami Dolphins (5-5) are still very much alive for the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. They beat San Diego 20-16 at home last week to keep themselves in a good position with only six games to go. I look for them to not only cover against Carolina Sunday at home, but to likely win this game outright as well.

Carolina is in a massive letdown spot. It is coming off two nail-biting wins over the 49ers (10-9) and Patriots (24-20). The Panthers are feeling very good about themselves after those two wins against quality teams, but their about to be knocked off their pedestals against a motivated Miami squad. Plus, that game against New England was on Monday Night Football last week, so the Panthers will be working on one less day of rest than the Dolphins.

Miami has played in so many close games this season, and that fact alone shows that there is some value here with the Dolphins as a home underdog. Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less, while four of their five wins have come by 4 points or fewer. That means that seven of their 10 games thus far have been decided by 4 points or less.

The Dolphins are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. They are winning in this spot 24.2 to 11.0, or by an average of 13.2 points per game. This has clearly been a resilient bunch over the past three seasons when times have been tough, especially when playing at home. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games overall, and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Missouri/Ole Miss ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3

Ole Miss is still one of the best teams in the country despite suffering three losses this season. Two of those losses have come on the road against Alabama and Auburn, which are arguably the two best teams in the SEC. The other came at home against Texas A&M by a field goal, which is probably the third-best team in the conference. The Rebels proved they could beat an SEC power by knocking off LSU 27-24, which was the start of a four-game winning streak heading into this one.

It

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5

The Volunteers come in on two weeks of rest having last played on November 9 and in need of a victory. They have to win their final two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky to become bowl eligible, and it

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +32

The betting public wants nothing to do with 1-10 California. As a result, I believe this line is way out of whack and inflated. This is the final game of the season for the Golden Bears, and their last chance to redeem themselves. I fully expect them to put their best foot forward Saturday because of it.

Stanford is going to be in a terrible state of mind coming into this one. It just lost at USC last week after a big win over Oregon in its previous game. That loss to the Trojans likely cost Stanford the Pac-12 Title, and they know it. I look for the Cardinal to suffer a bit of a hangover effect because of it.

The Cardinal are not an explosive offensive team. It's going to take a lot of points for them to cover this big number, and I just don't believe they have it in them. Stanford is only scoring 30.4 points and averaging 384.2 yards per game to rank 84th in the country in total offense. They are a running team who does not up the tempo offensively, which favors getting big points when going against them.

California has only beaten beaten by more than 32 points twice this season. One was a 16-55 loss to Oregon, which is a team with an explosive offense that can cover these big spreads consistently. The other was a 28-62 loss to USC. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Trojans scored three special teams touchdowns. Take those away, and it's a 41-28 game.

Stanford only has one win by more than 21 points this season. That was a 55-17 win over Washington State. This isn't a team known for blowing out the opposition simply because of the style of football it plays. In fact, the Cardinal have only scored more than 34 points twice all season.

Cal has found a running game in recent weeks to compliment its dynamic passing attack. The Bears rushed for 195 yards on USC, and 197 yards on Colorado. They rank 11th in the country in passing offense at 333.4 yards per game. Stanford's biggest weakness is a pass defense that ranks 96th in the country at 253.9 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 63.7% of their passes against Stanford.

Plays on road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Stanford is 6-20 against the spread in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bet California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -1.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions want revenge from two very close defeats to the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the past two seasons. I believe they get it at home this Saturday, where they have been dominant all season long.

Nebraska beat Penn State 17-14 on the road in 2011. Then, after blowing a 20-6 halftime lead, the Nittany Lions would lost 23-32 at Nebraska in 2012. They certainly have had this game circled on their calendars after those two defeats, and there's no question they will be the more motivated team Saturday because of it.

The Cornhuskers will be in a fragile state of mind heading into this one. They just lost at home to Michigan State by a final of 28-41 in a game that was pretty much for the Big Ten Legends Division Title. They will have a hard time bouncing back from that kind of a loss, and I look for them to suffer a hangover because of it.

Nebraska's strength is its rushing attack, which averages 240 yards per game. Penn State has been stout against the run this season, giving up just 144 yards per game and 3.9 per carry. I look for the Nittany Lions to hold up against the run, which will be the key to winning this contest.

Penn State boasts one of the more underrated offenses in the country. It is putting up 29.3 points and 434.6 yards per game this season, including 37.0 points and 478.8 yards per game at home where it is 5-1 on the season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.2 points per game at home this year.

Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg has been solid, completing 59% of his passes for 2,399 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Bill Belton has rushed for 796 yards and five touchdowns, while Zach Zwinak has added 725 yards and 12 scores.

Nebraska has played a quarterback carousel all season, playing three different quarterbacks at times this year. It has not allowed the Huskers to get into any kind of rhythm offensively. Whoever has been under center of late has turned the ball over a ton. The Huskers have committed 16 turnovers in their last five games overall for an average of 3.2 per game.

The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Cornhuskers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Nebraska is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Penn State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State +24

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-10 team like Georgia State. This forces oddsmakers to set inflated spreads this late in the season, and there's no question in my mind that this line has been inflated Saturday as the Panthers take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Georgia State is nowhere near as bad as its record would indicate. As a result, there has been a ton of value on this team all season. In fact, Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, which means that it has been playing teams much tougher than it was expected to.

Since losing 3-45 at No. 1 Alabama, the Panthers have been playing their best football of the season. They only lost 28-35 as a 15-point home dog to Troy. The lost at Texas State 17-24 as a 16-point dog, and they also covered as a 19-point dog in a 28-44 home loss to Western Kentucky, and as a 20.5-point dog in a 21-35 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette.

To compare, Arkansas State only beat Troy 41-34 at home as a 6-point favorite. Arkansas State also lost to Louisiana-Lafayette 7-23 at home. It was outgained 168-470 by the Rajin' Cajuns in that defeat. The Red Wolves simply aren't the same team they were the past two years when they won back-to-back Sun Belt Titles. However, they continue to get treated like it by oddsmakers.

Indeed, Georgia State has played its best football of late. It was only outgained 410-444 in that loss to Western Kentucky two weeks ago. Quarterback Ronnie Bell threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Last week, the Panthers were only outgained 481-482 by Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Again, Bell threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns.

Bell should continue to have success against an Arkansas State defense that is simply not very good. The Red Wolves have allowed 417.8 total yards per game this season, which is very poor when you consider that the 10 opponents that they have faced only average 389 yards per game on the season.

Also, offensively, the Red Wolves are averaging a solid 431 yards per game. However, their 10 opponents combine to give up an average of 445 yards per game, so that 431-yard number is not very impressive at all. I would argue that with those numbers, the Red Wolves are below average on both sides of the football.

Georgia State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games this season. Arkansas state is 0-9 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Panthers. Take Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +22.5

New Mexico State is one of the most undervalued teams in all of college football right now in terms of the point spread due to its 1-9 record on the season. Oddsmakers have been forced to set their spreads to high in recent weeks, and they've done so again this week. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-9 team, which is the cause for the inflation. We'll take advantage Saturday.

The Aggies have played their best football of the season of late. They are coming off back-to-back losses, but were very competitive against quality opponents in the process. They lost 35-49 at LA Lafayette on November 2 as a 32.5-point underdog. They lost 34-48 at home against Boston College on November 9 as a 25-point dog. Now, they have had two weeks of rest to get ready for Florida Atlantic since that loss to the Eagles and to build off of their solid play during the bye week.

New Mexico State actually led LA-Lafayette 28-7 in that game before eventually losing by 14. It also outgained the Rajin' Cajuns 450-440 for the game. Andrew McDonald threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Against Boston College, it was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter. The Aggies would lose by 14 despite outgaining the Eagles 558-555 for the game. McDonald had another solid performance, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns in the loss.

I would certainly argue that Boston College and Louisiana-Lafayette are both better teams than Florida Atlantic, and you would be crazy if you thought otherwise. That's why the Owls have no business being a 22.5-point favorite in this game against an improved Aggies squad that is coming off two weeks of rest.

The reason FAU is getting so much love here is that it is coming off back-to-back blowout victories over Tulane and Southern Miss. I believe Tulane is one of the most overrated teams in college football, while Southern Miss is the worst team in the FBS, period. Those blowout wins were not impressive at all, but because they happened, the Owls are getting a lot of respect from the books here.

Florida Atlantic is only scoring 24.1 points and putting up 354.9 yards per game this season to rank 104th in the country in total offense. It takes a good offense to cover a big number like this, and the Owls are simply lacking one. New Mexico State comes in having posted 449, 450 and 558 total yards in its last three games overall, so it certainly has the offense to keep this game competitive. I also like some of the comments from head coach Doug Martin heading into this one as well.

"I love the mentality of our team and our players," Martin said. "They're fighting, they've got great character. Not many teams with one win play as hard as we do. Especially against Boston College and the talent level that team had. A lot of people have been appreciative of that. I think in those terms, we've certainly turned corner, as far as the mentality of the football team."

"It's going to be a great task. A challenge we're certainly looking forward too," Martin said of Saturday's contest. "To be able to win out for us would be a great momentum change, momentum shift for us going into recruiting. We're excited about the game."

Plays on road underdogs (NEW MEXICO ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS since 1992. FAU is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points per game since 1992. The Owls are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after committing one or less turnovers in their previous game. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5

The Wildcats clearly are nowhere near as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, I would argue that this team is every bit as good as the one that won double-digit games last season. The only difference has been their record in close games, which has simply been atrocious. Five of their six losses have come by 10 points or less.

That 10-point loss to Ohio State was a 3-point game before the Buckeyes scored a garbage touchdown on special teams on the final play of the game, falling on a fumble in the end zone. Northwestern also lost by 8 points to Michigan last week, only because it went into triple overtime and the Wolverines got the 2-point conversion.

The other three close losses came to Minnesota (17-20), Iowa (10-17) and Nebraska (24-27) on a hail mary on the game's final play. The Wildcats easily could have won all five of those games, realistically only getting blown out once this season. That was on the road against Wisconsin, which was understandable because they were just coming off their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State the previous week.

With a chance to make a bowl game if they win their next two games, the Wildcats should be plenty motivated to put an end to this misery and get a win Saturday. Plus, teams who are coming off a multiple-overtime loss are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their next game in 2013. While many will be expecting Northwestern to fold, I'm not one of them. Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best head coaches in the country and he's an excellent motivator. He will have his troops ready to go at home Saturday.

Michigan State is coming off its biggest win of the season at Nebraska, and knowing that it can afford to lose one game and still win the Legends Division, it may have a hard time getting motivated to play Saturday. The Spartans could lose this game and still beat Minnesota at home next week to win the Legends Division. The Wildcats cannot lose or they won

20* Navy/San Jose State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +3

The Midshipmen clearly want revenge from their two losses to the Trojans over the past two seasons. Last year, in their 12-0 loss, they didn

15* CFB Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on UNLV +3

The UNLV Rebels are extremely motivated to get to their first bowl game since 2000. They are clearly improved this year with a 5-5 record coming into this one. After suffering losses to San Jose State (24-34) and Utah State (24-28) over their past two games, the Rebels are certainly feeling a sense of urgency to get that all-important sixth victory. They don

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +10

While the Falcons are almost certainly out of the playoff hunt, they

20* NIU/Toledo MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Toledo +3

The Toledo Rockets will be out for revenge after narrow losses to Northern Illinois each of the past two seasons. They fell 63-60 at home against the Huskies in 2011, and lost 24-31 on the road last year. They have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. After taking care of business up to this point, the Rockets now control their own destiny in the MAC West. If they win out, they will win the division and play in the MAC Title game. They certainly will not be lacking any motivation because of it.

Toledo was very impressive in a 51-41 win over Buffalo last week. This was a 38-0 game early into the third quarter with the outcome basically decided. The Rockets packed it in from there, and allowed the Bulls to rack up a ton of points in garbage time to make the final score appear closer than it really was. Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns in the win, while Kareem Hunt added 186 rushing yards and a score.

This is a Toledo offense that is putting up 35.0 points and 456.1 yards per game against a very tough schedule this season. Its only losses have come on the road to the likes of Florida, Missouri and Ball State, and it hung tough in all three contests. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this year, outscoring opponents by 17.8 points per game. Their strength defensively is a run defense that is giving up 160 yards per game on just 3.8 per carry. The key to a win will be stopping Jordan Lynch and NIU

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio +24.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is 0-10 on the season. That

20* Patriots/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England +3

Give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a team, and the Patriots are almost certainly going to be ready for everything Carolina has to offer. That will be the case Monday as the Patriots come off a bye following their most dominant performance of the season. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 at home last time out on November 3 behind a whopping 610 yards of total offense.

That

20* Chiefs/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City +8

Coming off their bye week, the Chiefs have had two full weeks to prepare for Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. That will be a huge advantage heading into this divisional showdown with first place in the AFC West on the line. That's especially the case when you consider that Andy Reid is 13-1 straight up off a bye as a head coach.

Adding to Denver's disadvantage is the fact that Peyton Manning is banged up. He was noticeably limping at the end of their 28-20 win at San Diego last week, and it

20* 49ers/Saints Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -3

The Saints have been simply unstoppable at home this season. They are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread inside the Superdome with their smallest margin of victory coming by six points. They are scoring 35.2 points and giving up 15.0 points at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game. They certainly will be wanting revenge on the 49ers, who have beaten them each of the past two seasons.

Looking at the numbers, it

15* NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore Ravens +3

The Baltimore Ravens have simply been unlucky in close games this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-5 record to this point. They have lost four times by six or fewer points, including three times by a field goal or less. Only twice in their nine games this year have they been beaten by more than a field goal. That trend right there shows you that there is some nice value in snagging the Ravens at +3 in this contest.

Baltimore kept its playoff and division title hopes alive last week with a huge 20-17 victory over Cincinnati. It led 17-0 and nearly blew the game as the Bengals tied it on a hail mary with no time left to force overtime. However, the Ravens would get the winning field goal in the extra session, and that

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5

The Cleveland Browns have been one of the most improved teams in the league in 2013. Despite going through three different quarterbacks, they have a chance to pull within a half-game of Cincinnati for first place in the AFC North with a win Sunday.

Jason Campbell has played very well as a starter in his last two games. He threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-23 loss at Kansas City. Campbell threw for 262 yards and three scores in a 24-18 home win over Baltimore last time out on November 3.

As you can see, the Browns are coming off their bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for the Bengals. That will be a huge advantage heading into this one.

After already beating Cincinnati 17-6 at home on September 29 in their first meeting of the season, they

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Washington Redskins +4.5

This is clearly a must-win game for Washington, which cannot afford another loss if it wants to win back-to-back NFC East Titles. The good news is that the NFC East is down this season, with both Dallas and Philadelphia tied for first place with .500 records.

This is where Washington made its run last season, winning each of its final seven games after starting with an identical 3-6 record to finish 10-6. Having that memory in the back of their minds will serve the Redskins well going forward.

Washington will have a big edge in rest heading into this one. It last played on Thursday, November 7, losing 27-34 at Minnesota despite dominating that football game. In fact, the Redskins outgained the Vikings 433-307 but found a way to lose.

Offense certainly hasn

15* Wyoming/Boise State ESPN 2 BAILOUT on Wyoming +24

The Boise State Broncos are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. They should not be a 23-point favorite over Wyoming. Down their starting quarterback, and certainly down from their level of play from year's past, the Broncos are way overvalued in this one.

This line is an overreaction from Boise State's 42-30 win at Colorado State last time out, coupled with Wyoming's 10-48 loss to Fresno State last game. The Broncos were actually outgained 437-626 by Colorado State, further showing that their defense is nowhere near as dominant as it has been in year's past.

Boise State is allowing 25.2 points and 437.7 yards per game this season to rank 95th in the country in total defense. It will have a hard time containing an explosive Wyoming offense that is averaging 33.6 points and 491.6 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total offense. Wyoming's ability to move the football and put points on the board will allow it to stay within this 23-point spread.

Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith is quietly having a monster season in the Mountain West. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,508 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 441 yards and three scores. Running back Shaun Wick is also having a big year, rushing for 823 yards and nine touchdowns on 6.5 per carry.

The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They have gone 3-1 against the spread in road games in 2013. They lost at Nebraska 34-37 as a 31-point underdog to open the season. They won at Air Force 56-23 as a 4-point favorite, and they only lost 44-51 at San Jose State as a 10.5-point underdog. Those three results right there show that Wyoming travels well.

Furthermore, Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is a sensational 17-4 against the spread as a road underdog as the coach of Wyoming. Wyoming is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games overall. Meanwhile, Chris Peterson is 0-6 against the number in home games after having won four or five of their last six games as the coach of Boise State. Peterson is also 0-6 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that average at least 200 rushing yards per game as the coach of Boise State.

The Broncos are 1-12 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Boise State is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. These last five trends combined for a 38-2 system backing the Cowboys. Take Wyoming Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +14

Off two straight losses to Stanford and USC, the Beavers will be hungry for a victory Saturday. That

15* Alabama/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Mississippi State +25.5

This is a huge letdown spot for Alabama. It is coming off arguably its biggest win of the season last Saturday in a 38-17 home victory over LSU. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was tied 17-17 in the third quarter before the Crimson Tide pulled away in the fourth.

It would be pretty easy for the Crimson Tide to overlook Mississippi State enough to fail to win by 26-plus points, which is what it would take to cover. We only have to look back to last year to find how Alabama responds after the LSU game. It beat LSU 21-17 on the road in 2012, then came back home the next week and lost to Texsa A&M 24-29 despite being a 13-point favorite.

There

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +28

Texas Tech comes way undervalued due to its three-game losing streak. A closer look at the skid shows that the Red Raiders really had a chance to win all three games despite the final margins. They lost 30-38 at Oklahoma despite amassing 460 total yards. They committed three turnovers in that contest, which really put them in a hole that they just couldn

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

Vanderbilt is in a huge letdown spot Saturday. It is coming off a 34-17 win at Florida last Saturday to put an end to a 22-game losing streak to the Gators. It's going to be very hard for them to come back emotionally to get ready for face a 2-7 Kentucky team that the Commodores will certainly be overlooking.

A closer look into the box score against Florida shows that Vanderbilt was very lucky to win, and that there's no way in hell it should have scored 34 points. In fact, the Commodores were outgained 183-344 by the Gators, which would normally equate to a blowout win in Florida's favor. But the Gators turned the ball over four times and gave the Commodores several easy scores.

Backup quarterback Patton Robinette only completed 6 of 12 passes for 57 yards against the Gators, so obviously he wasn't asked to do too much as Florida gave that game away. He'll have to do much more against Kentucky this week if the Commodores are going to win, let alone cover. Starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels remains doubtful with a knee injury. Robinette is only completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 421 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions on the season.

Kentucky is highly motivated to pick up its first SEC win of the season. It has played its best football on the road this year, only losing at South Carolina 28-35 despite being a 22-point underdog, and at Mississippi State 22-28 as a 12-point dog. If it can stay within a touchdown of both of those teams, then it certainly can stay within 13 of Vanderbilt Saturday.

Last week's game against Missouri was much closer than the final score would indicate. But because the Wildcats were blown out 17-48, and the Commodores are coming off a win at Florida, this line has been inflated due to public perception. The Wildcats were only outgained 369-426 by the Tigers last week in what was a 35-17 game entering the 4th quarter. Quarterback Jalen Whitlow was solid, completing 17 of 27 passes for 225 yards in the loss. It's nice to have him back and healthy again.

The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its last game. The Commodores are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Washington/UCLA ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +3

Looking at the numbers, it

20* Colts/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +3

This is a huge game for Tennessee, which trails Indianapolis by two games for the AFC South lead. If it wants any chance to make the playoffs, it simply has to have this game Thursday. That

15* GA Tech/Clemson ACC Thursday No-Brainer on Clemson -10.5

The Clemson Tigers have rebounded nicely from their lone loss of the season to Florida State. They have bounced back with back-to-back blowout road victories over Maryland (40-27) and Virginia (59-10). They are still playing for a shot at a BCS game, and if they win out, they

20* Ball State/NIU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7.5

The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the country in 2013. They have opened 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread with their only loss coming on the road against a quality North Texas team by seven points. They have been dominant in victory, too, as seven of their nine wins have come by 18 points or more. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.3 points per game. They have played their best football on the road, going 4-1 against the spread while winning by 16.8 points per game.

Ball State is putting up 39.9 points and 475.7 yards per game to rank 25th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Keith Wenning is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 3,164 yards with 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Willie Snead has caught 74 balls for 1,175 yards and 12 scores. Jahwan Edwards has rushed for 749 yards and 12 touchdowns. The defense, which is only giving up 23.6 points per game, leads the country by forcing 26 turnovers on the season.

Sure, Northern Illinois has won four straight in this series, but Ball State has hung tough. The last time these teams met at Northern Illinois, Ball State lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 38-41. Last year, the Huskies won 35-23 at Ball State, but a closer look into the box score shows that the Cardinals probably should have won that game. They outgained the Huskies 563-509, and Wenning threw for 434 yards in the loss. Ball State held a 23-21 lead with under five minutes remaining before the Huskies tacked on two touchdowns in the closing minutes to pull away. Revenge is certainly on the Cardinals

20* Buffalo/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5

The Buffalo Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. After losing very tough road games to Ohio State and Baylor to open the season, which both remain unbeaten this year, the Bulls have responded by winning seven straight. In fact, their last six wins have come via blowout. They have beaten each of their last six opponents by 20 or more points, including last week

20* Dolphins/Bucs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3

There

15* Cowboys/Saints NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans -6

After losing at New York despite dominating the game last week, the New Orleans Saints are going to return home pissed off and ready to go Sunday night. They outgained the Jets 407-338 for the game, but lost Darren Sproles on the team's first drive, which made them much more easy to deal with. However, Sproles will return this week and will give this soft Dallas defense fits.

New Orleans is putting up 27.0 points and 397.4 yards per game this season to rank 7th in the league in total offense. I've been even more impressed with the new stop unit under the guidance of defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan. The stop unit is giving up just 18.2 points and 333.1 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total defense. Ryan wants revenge on the Cowboys, who made him the scapegoat and canned him after last season.

When you look at Dallas' numbers, it's easy to see that it is way overrated due to its 5-4 record. Three of those wins have come against teams from the NFC East, which is the worst division in football. The Cowboys rank 17th in the league in total offense at 342.6 yards per game, and a woeful 31st in total defense at 419.2 yards per game allowed. Their defense will get shredding by this high-powered New Orleans offense Sunday night.

The Saints simply do not lose at home. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in home games this season, outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game. New Orleans is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games overall. The Saints are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons. They are winning by an average of 19.2 points per game in this spot. Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Panthers/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +6.5

Quietly, the Carolina Panthers have been one of the best teams in the entire league in 2013. They have gotten to 5-3 on the season thanks to winning five of their last six games via blowout. Their five victories have been against the Giants (38-0), Vikings (35-10), Rams (30-15), Bucs (31-13) and Falcons (34-10). That's complete domination folks.

Carolina continues to get no respect from the books this week as a 6-point underdog at San Francisco. They're saying that the 49ers are three points better on a neutral field, and I'm not buying it. I believe these teams are very evenly-matched and that this game will go right down to the wire with the winner likely winning by a field goal.

In my opinion, the Panthers have the best defense in the league right up there with the Chiefs. They are giving up just 13.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 299.9 yards per game allowed. The reason they have an advantage in this game particularly is because of their ability to stop the run.

San Francisco relies heavily on its running game, ranking 1st in the league in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game. The 49ers have the worst passing offense in the league, ranking 32nd at 189.9 yards per game through the air. So, the key to stopping San Francisco is stopping its running game. Carolina has the perfect antidote, ranking 2nd in the league against the run at 79.1 yards per game and 3.7 per carry.

During the team's four-game winning streak, Cam Newton is completing 72.3 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns, two picks and a 109.8 rating along with three rushing touchdowns. Carolina is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Ron Rivera is 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Carolina. Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* Lions/Bears NFC North No-Brainer on Detroit PK

This is a very favorable spot for Detroit and a very tough one for Chicago. Despite the fact that both teams are 5-3 heading into this game with first place in the NFC North on the line, I believe the Lions have a decisive advantage going into it.

Detroit is coming off its bye week, giving it two full weeks to prepare for Chicago. Meanwhile, the Bears will be on short rest after their huge Monday Night Football win over the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. That gives a huge edge in rest and preparation to the Lions, while also setting the Bears up for a letdown spot off a win over their biggest rivals.

The Lions beat the Bears 40-32 at home in their first meeting this season. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Lions led 40-16 with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. Jay Cutler threw three interceptions in the loss, while Reggie Bush rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown in the win.

Chicago has all kinds of injury concerns heading into this one. Its defense is very soft due to the losses of LB Lance Briggs, LB D.J. Williams, DT Henry Melton, DT Nate Collins and DT Jay Ratliff. Cutler is expected to return from a groin injury, but he may be coming back too soon as Josh McCown played well in his place. Bush should have another monster game on the ground against a Chicago defense that has allowed a combined 408 rushing yards in its last two games.

The Bears are 12-33 ATS in their last 45 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play. Chicago is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bears. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Roll with the Lions Sunday.

15* Bengals/Ravens AFC North Rivalry Play on Baltimore +1

This is essentially a must-win for the Baltimore Ravens. At 3-5 on the season, they trail the Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) by 2.5 games for first place in the AFC North. They simply cannot afford to lose this game if they want any chance of winning the division, and as a result, I expect their best effort of the season at home Sunday.

Due to injuries, the Cincinnati Bengals are not going to be as strong the rest of the way as they were in the first half of the season. That was evident in a 20-22 loss at Miami last week as the defense was shredded for 157 rushing yards by the Dolphins. It's no coincidence that the Dolphins were able to have so much success on the ground considering the injuries the Bengals are dealing with.

Cincinnati has lost its rock in the middle in defensive tackle Geno Atkins (knee) for the season in the loss to Miami. Atkins, who had a team-best six sacks and a career-high 12 1/2 in 2012, joins cornerback Leon Hall (Achilles), safety Taylor Mays (shoulder) and defensive end Robert Geathers (elbow) on injured reserve.

Middle linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee, concussion) and offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth (knee) didn't play last week and both were held out of practice Wednesday. Maualuga is doubtful Sunday, while Whitworth is expected to play. Linebacker Michael Boely is doubtful, while running back Giovani Bernard is expected to return despite sitting out late in the Miami game due to a rib injury.

Baltimore has fell victim to a tough schedule more than anything. It has played five road games compared to only three home games. It is 2-1 at home with its only loss coming to the Green Bay Packers by a final of 17-19. Cincinnati is just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the road this year. The Ravens have been on the wrong end of several close calls, losing their last three by a combined 11 points. Cincinnati has lost in each of its last three visits to Baltimore and was blown out 44-13 in its latest one Sept. 10, 2012.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the past seven meetings. The Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

The Steelers have clearly been much better than their record would indicate this season. They are almost dead even in yards gained and yards allowed this year, averaging 341.9 yards per game on offense and giving up 341.2 yards per game on defense. That is more of a sign of a team that would be 4-4 right now rather than one that is 2-6, but the Steelers are -11 in turnover differential, which has been the difference.

The Bills, on the other hand, are about as bad as their 3-6 record would indicate. They are averaging 344.7 yards per game offensively, while giving up 362.1 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by 17.4 yards per game. They are yielding 26.2 points per game to rank 24th in the league in scoring defense. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to New Orleans (17-35) and Kansas City (13-23).

Pittsburgh has absolutely dominated this series with Buffalo. In fact, the Steelers are 8-1 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings in this series. All eight of their wins have come by three points or more, including six by 13 or more. At home as only a 2.5-point favorite, there

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +13

After going 0-8 straight up and 1-7 against the spread through the first half of their season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be showing a ton of value in the second half. Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is going to keep fading Jacksonville, and that is going to force them to set the numbers a lot higher than they should be. I'm going to take advantage, starting this week.

If the Jaguars were going to win their first game of the season, this would be the perfect situation for it. They are coming off their bye week, getting two full weeks to prepare for division rival Tennessee, so this is a game where they should be in a great state of mind coming in. Meanwhile, the Titans have a game against the division-leading Indianapolis Colts on deck, which makes this a lookahead spot for them.

At 4-4, Tennessee is clearly one of the most overrated teams in the league. It is averaging just 318.0 yards per game to rank 24th in the league in total offense. It is giving up 340.4 yards per game, getting outgained by 22.4 yards per game on the season. This team does not deserve to be laying double-digit points against any team in the league, even the Jaguars.

Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-8 (81.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This trend just goes to show how backing these teams that are perceived as 'awful' can really pay dividends for bettors. I expect it to pay off this weekend. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on St. Louis Rams +10

You have to give the Rams a lot of credit for the way they have fought the last couple of weeks. They fell 9-14 to Seattle as a 13-point underdog, but really dominated that game and should have won. They outgained the Seahawks 339-135 for the game. They also played a very good game last week, falling 21-28 to the Tennessee Titans in a very evenly-matched game that saw both teams gain exactly 363 yards.

A new-found running game has taken a lot of pressure off of St. Louis quarterback Kellen Clemens, who has played pretty well all things considered. The Rams rushed for 200 yards against Seattle and 160 more against Tennessee. Zac Stacy has been one of the best running backs in the league over the past couple of weeks. He has 475 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season while averaging an impressive 4.6 yards per carry.

Indianapolis has been soft against the run this season. It ranks 26th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 124.9 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It gave up 171 yards to Oakland, 218 yards to Seattle, 147 to San Diego and 143 to Houston. Considering the Colts are actually getting outgained by 26.3 yards per game on the season, they clearly aren

25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55

Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven

25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55

Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Monroe -3

Arkansas State continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point road underdog to Louisiana-Monroe. Somehow, this team is getting treated like the back-to-back Sun Belt champion it was the past two years, and not the woeful 4-4 team it is in 2013.

Arkansas State's four wins have come against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Troy, Idaho and South Alabama. As you can see, it does not have a good win on its schedule yet. It even struggled to beat Troy (41-34) at home and South Alabama (17-16) on the road. It is just 1-3 on the road this season with blowout losses to Memphis (7-31), Missouri (19-41) and Auburn (9-38). It also fell 7-23 at home to Louisiana-Lafayette while gaining just 168 total yards in the defeat.

Louisiana-Monroe has turned around its season, and now at 3-1 in Sun Belt play, it has a legitimate shot to win the conference this year. But due to the slow start, which was aided by an injury to starting quarterback Kolton Browning, this team is now underrated. The Warhawks have reeled off three straight victories to get back on track, including the last two thanks to the healthy return of their star quarterback.

Browning threw for 224 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-10 win over Georgia State on October 26. He came back five days later and threw for 354 yards and five touchdowns, while also rushing for another score in a 49-37 win at Troy on October 31. That brings me to my next point, which is that the Warhawks have had two extra days to prepare for Arkansas State, which last played on November 2 against South Alabama.

Monroe has had this game circled on their calendars all offseason. They have lost three straight to Arkansas State, including a 45-23 road loss last season. But that Arkansas State team had the best quarterback in Sun Belt history in Ryan Aplin, who had 10,758 career passing yards and ton of rushing yards to go with it. New quarterback Adam Kennedy has thrown just seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season, which is a far cry from what Aplin put up year after year.

Plays against road underdogs (ARKANSAS ST) - off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Better yet, plays on home favorites (LA MONROE) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1992. Also, the home team has won seven of the past eight meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

20* VA Tech/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +7

The Virginia Tech Hokies really have a legitimate chance to win the Coastal Division with a victory Saturday. They would have victories against both Miami and Georgia Tech, which are their two closest contenders. That

20* Miss State/Texas A&M CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +19.5

There

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17

You have to give the Cal Golden Bears a lot of credit for the way they continue to fight. They have covered the spread in each of their last two games and are clearly starting to show value against the spread due to their poor start this season. They covered as a 28-point underdog at Washington in a 17-41 loss. They followed that up with their best performance of the season, which was a 28-33 home loss to Arizona as a 14.5-point underdog last weekend.

I really like what I

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky -5.5

There's no question in my mind that Western Kentucky is the superior team in this game against Army. That will show on the football field as the Hiltoppers roll to a blowout road victory to become bowl eligible with their sixth win of the season.

Western Kentucky has been dominant on both sides of the football. It is scoring 30.8 points and averaging 476.6 yards per game to rank 26th in the country in total offense. It is giving up just 361.9 yards per game to rank 29th in total defense. This team is even better than its 5-4 record would indicate.

Sure, losses to LA Lafayette and Troy are concerning but a closer look shows that they really should have won both of those games. The Hilltoppers outgained Lafayette 471-344 for the game, but were -3 in turnover differential. They also outgained Troy 532-397. So, as you can see, they dominated both of those games in every area but the scoreboard.

Army is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to two of the worst teams in college football in Temple (14-33) and Air Force (28-42). Its only wins this season have come against three terrible teams in Morgan State (28-12), LA Tech (35-16) and Eastern Michigan (50-25). That's the same Morgan State team that Western Kentucky beat (58-17).

The Hilltoppers beat Navy 19-7 on September 28, so they have some nice experience against the triple-option offense. They held the Midshipmen to just 183 total yards in the win. Navy is a much better football team than Army, and its runs the triple-option much more effectively.

Western Kentucky is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Black Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Army is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* Air Force/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico -3

While the New Mexico Lobos have just two wins this season, they have been much more competitive than they were in years

20* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon -10

The Ducks have certainly made a case for being the best team in all of college football. They have won every game this season by 21 or more points en route to their 8-0 start. That includes a 45-24 win at Washington, which is the same team should have won at Stanford, losing 28-31 despite outgaining the Cardinal by 210 total yards.

Oregon is putting up 55.6 points and 632.1 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota is the Heisman Trophy front runner to this point thanks to his 2,281 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions, as well as his 511 rushing yards and nine scores. The defense hasn

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins -1 (-125)

Despite the fact that they are just 3-5, the Redskins are still very much alive in the NFC East race. After a huge overtime win against San Diego this past Sunday, they trail the Dallas Cowboys by just 1.5 games for the division lead. They finished the second half last year on a seven-game winning streak, and that will give them the confidence to do something special to close out the 2013 campaign, too.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has nothing to play for even though we

15* Troy/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +14

The Troy Trojans have a big edge in rest heading into this one. They last played on Thursday, October 31, while Louisiana-Lafayette last played on Saturday, November 2. That gives them a full two days extra to prepare for this contest, which is huge considering this is a short week for the Rajin

20* CMU/Ball State MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +21

The Chippewas are playing their best football of the season of late. Prior to their loss to Northern Illinois on October 19 last time out, they had won two straight road games over Miami Ohio (21-9) and Ohio (26-23). That win over the Bobcats was quite impressive considering they were a 20-point underdog but managed 432 total yards in the win.

Having last played on October 19, Central Michigan now has had more than two full weeks to prepare for Ball State. They have had an extra week to prepare than the Cardinals, who last played on October 26.

With a game against fellow MAC West leader Northern Illinois on deck next Wednesday, this is a huge letdown spot for Ball State. That game will almost certainly decide the MAC West winner, so it doesn

20* Ohio/Buffalo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -3.5

The Buffalo Bulls have been one of the most improved teams in the country this season. As a result, they have also been one of the most underrated. After opening the season with losses against Ohio State and Baylor, who each remain undefeated, the Bulls have reeled off six straight victories while going 5-1 against the spread in the process.

In its last five games, Buffalo has been absolutely destroying opponents. In fact, it has won five straight games by 20 or more points. It beat Connecticut (41-12), Eastern Michigan (42-14) and UMass (32-3) at home, while also winning at Western Michigan (33-0) and Kent State (41-21) on the road.

Ohio was absolutely blown 7-49 at Louisville in its only true road test this season. Its other two road games came at Akron and at Eastern Michigan, which were both wins. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 22.2 points per game.

The Bulls clearly want revenge from last season

20* Bears/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -10

Green Bay is once again showing that it is the deepest team in the league just as it did when it won the Super Bowl a few years back. Despite the losses of Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, James Jones and Jermichael Finley, the Packers have won four straight with three of those victories coming by 13 or more points. The other was a solid 19-17 road victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens.

The Packers have simply owned the Bears, winning six straight in this series while going 5-1 against the spread in the process. They have won five straight meetings with the Bears at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 in his career against Chicago and has completed 69.6 percent of his passes while throwing 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in the last four matchups.

Chicago will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler and middle linebacker Lance Briggs Monday. These losses really stack the deck against the Bears. The Packers have won 11 straight home games when you include playoffs while allowing an average of 14.7 points per game in the process. In their last five home games, the Packers have yielded only three field goals and no touchdowns in the first half. After giving up 45 points and 499 total yards to the Redskins last time out, the Bears will be in for a long day against this high-powered Green Bay offense.

What has made Green Bay's offense so dynamic this year is a new-found running game, which makes opposing defenses try and defend the entire field. The Packers have rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, including 180-plus in three of them. After giving up 209 rushing yards against the Redskins, the Bears are clearly soft through the middle of their defense due to injuries along the D-line and at linebacker.

The Bears are 0-7 against the spread versus good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game over the last two seasons. Green Bay is 35-16-2 against the spread in its last 53 home games overall. The Packers are 8-1 against the number in their last nine games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The Bears are 2-14 against the spread in their last 14 vs. NFC opponents. Green Bay is 26-9 against the number in its last 35 vs. NFC North foes. Bet Green Bay Monday.

20* Colts/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +2.5

Sure, the record says that the Houston Texans are just 2-5 on the season, but a closer look into the numbers shows that they are much better than their record would indicate. They rank 1st in the league in total defense at 267.7 yards per game allowed, and 8th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game. Their net yards gained versus their opponents of 113.4 yards per game is the best mark in the entire league. There could be a ton of value in backing this team going forward due to their poor overall record, and I believe that is certainly the case Sunday night.

Compare that to the Colts (5-2), who are actually getting outgained by 6.0 yards per game on the season, and we have a fraud here. Now, Indianapolis has lost leading receiver Reggie Wayne to a season-ending knee injury in the win over the Broncos last time out. His loss cannot be overstated as he has been one of the most productive receivers in league history. Andrew Luck has taken a particular liking to Wayne, especially in key third-down situations. Without him, this offense isn

20* Steelers/Patriots AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7

Sure, the Steelers are just 2-5 on the season, but when you look at the numbers it

15* Eagles/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +3

The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly the worst home team in the league. They just cannot seem to perform well in front of the boo birds, losing a ridiculous 10 straight home games. They also clearly enjoy getting away from Philadelphia and all the negativity that comes with it.

Indeed, the Eagles are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on the road this season, which is where all three of their victories have come. They have wins at Washington (33-27), New York Giants (36-21) and Tampa Bay (31-20). Their only loss came at Denver (20-52) in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Eagles were only outgained 450-472 in that game, but they gave up two non-offensive touchdowns. Plus, everyone is getting blown out by Denver.

Oakland is one of the most overrated teams in the league. It was gift-wrapped wins by the Chargers and Steelers in two of its last three games with those teams combining for seven turnovers. The Raiders are going to get exploited this week simply because this is a terrible match up for them.

The Raiders rely heavily on the run, averaging 139 rushing yards per game compared to just 175 passing. Well, Philadelphia's strength defensively is against the run and its weakness is against the pass. The Eagles are only allowing 100 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry compared to 302 passing yards per game. Terrelle Pryor won't be able to exploit Philadelphia's weakness because he's a terrible passer.

I love that Nick Foles is getting the start this week as he has clearly been the most impressive of the three Philadelphia quarterbacks. Foles has appeared in five games, two as a starter, and has completed 52 of 90 passes for 622 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He shined against Tampa Bay on Oct. 13, going 22 of 31 for 296 yards with three touchdowns. He can also hand the ball off to LeSean McCoy, who leads the NFL with 733 yards rushing.

Amazingly, Philadelphia is just one game out of first place in the NFC East. So despite the struggles in recent weeks, it still has a ton to play for. Meanwhile, Oakland has no chance to catch Kansas City and Denver in the AFC West. It also has very small hope at getting a wild card spot in the AFC. So, from a mental perspective, I like Philadelphia's side better heading into this one.

Oakland is 3-14 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992. The Raiders are 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. The Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win. Oakland is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a S.U. win. Take the Eagles Sunday.

Note: While I recommend buying the Eagles to +3 if you have the option, I'd still play them at a lesser number.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +4

With the new collective bargaining agreement, NFL teams don't hit in practice during the bye week. Players look at it as a bit of a vacation these days. It's kind of like a normal person's Friday before a vacation. How productive are you going to be on that Friday?

I believe the comparison is very real with NFL players. In fact, teams going into a bye week fail to cover the spread in roughly 59% of games over the past two seasons. This spot is especially tough for Kansas City given that it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Denver. It will be overlooking the Bills and looking ahead to the Bye Week and Denver.

I love what I've seen from Buffalo this season. Even in losing efforts, this team continues to battle. This team is 3-5 on the season, but three of those losses came by a touchdown or less, and the other were closer games than the final score would indicate in losses at Cleveland (24-37) and New Orleans (17-35).

I really like what I've seen from Buffalo at home. It has wins over an improved Carolina team and the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. Its only losses have come to New England (21-23) on a last-second field goal as a 10-point dog, and to Cincinnati (24-27) in overtime as a 5.5-point dog. As you can see, the Bills have been extremely competitive at home.

The Chiefs are clearly overvalued due to their 8-0 start, and that has started to show the past two weeks with unimpressive home wins against Houston (17-16) as a 7-point favorite and Cleveland (17-23) as a 7-point favorite. Alex Smith has just two touchdown passes and two interceptions over the last four weeks, and he just cannot deliver in the red zone as time and time again the Chiefs have to settle for field goals.

Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in November games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Kansas City is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following two consecutive home wins. The Chiefs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.

Buffalo is 8-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two years. The Bills are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. loss and 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Bills. Roll with Buffalo Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -7

I believe the oddsmakers have set the line in the Carolina/Atlanta game at 7.5 begging bettors to take the hook on the Falcons. I'm going to see right through it and back the better team in this one as I fully expect the Panthers to roll to victory.

It's no fluke that Atlanta is 2-5 right now. It remains without its two starting wide receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones, and you just cannot replace that kind of production. The injuries on defense are getting overlooked, too. The Falcons are without DE Kroy Biermann and LB Sean Weatherspoon, who are not only two of their best players, but leaders on the stop unit as well. Adding insult to injury is that LB Stephen Nicholas is doubtful Sunday.

Offensively, Atlanta hasn't been able to run the ball, which just puts Matt Ryan under even more pressure than he already is without White and Jones. Atlanta has rushed for 58, 64, 18 and 27 yards in its last four games, respectively. Steven Jackson returned from injury last week, but it didn't matter as he was held to six years on 11 carries. The offensive line is beat up too, and it lost some key cogs from last year.

Defensively, Atlanta is giving up 26.3 points and 363.7 yards per game. There's no question that the Panthers, who are allowing just 13.7 points and 301.4 yards per game, have a huge edge on this side of the ball. Also, the Panthers average 129 rushing yards per game, and they'll be able to move the football against an Atlanta defense that is surrenering 4.6 yards per carry this season. The Falcons have given up 111-plus yards on the ground in four straight games, including 201 last week to Arizona, which isn't known for its running game like Carolina is.

Carolina is not only winning of late, it is absolutely dominating. It has won four of its last five games with the wins coming against New York (38-0), Minnesota (35-10), St. Louis (30-15) and Tampa Bay (31-13). While none of those teams are elite, the Falcons are literally as bad as all of them right now with the injuries they are going through. This is a broken football team, ladies and gents, and there's no quick fix.

Cam Newton is playing the best football of his career. Newton has a 77.3 completion percentage and a 130.3 passer rating during the three-game winning streak - both best in the NFL over the past three weeks - while throwing for 667 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. The Panthers get an extra three days of rest heading into this one after last Thursday's win over Tampa Bay, only further improving their chances to cover.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Carolina is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers beat last year's 13-3 Atlanta team 30-20 at home on December 9 behind 195 rushing yards and 280 passing yards. I expect an even bigger blowout this time around. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

Note: While I recommend buying the Panthers to -7 if you have the option, I'd still play them at -7.5 or -8.

15* UTEP/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Saturday Night BAILOUT on UTEP +47.5

The Texas A&M Aggies aren't going to be interested at all this week. The 1-6 UTEP Miners come to town as the Aggies step outside SEC play. Teams from power conferences that face a non-conference game late in the season always tend to overlook that opponent when it's a team the caliber of UTEP.

Texas A&M will be much more interested in its final three games of the season, which will be against Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri with perhaps a BCS bowl on the line. It has no interest in beating UTEP by 50 Saturday, which is why I fully expect it to call off the dogs late.

Sure, there's no question I expect this to be a blowout, but asking the Aggies to win by more than six touchdowns is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider how soft their defense has been all season, which will allow UTEP plenty of opportunities to score points in the second half to keep the final score within the number.

Indeed, Texas A&M is giving up 32.6 points and 473.7 yards per game to rank a woeful 108th in the country in total defense. UTEP has actually been a pretty solid offensive team, averaging 407.4 yards per game to rank a respectable 69th in total offense, which is right in the middle of the pack.

In fact, the Miners rank 26th in the country in rushing, averaging 211.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are terrible against the run, giving up 210.1 yards per game to rank 104th in rushing defense. Even if they're down big, they're still going to stick to the run because it's what they do. And they should continue to move it effectively once Texas A&M packs it in at halftime.

UTEP is 17-6 ATS in it last 23 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60-75%. Simply put, this line is too big for a disinterested Aggies team to cover. Roll with UTEP Saturday.