20* Vikings/49ers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2

I’m big on the Minnesota Vikings this season and believe they’ll be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. Mike Zimmer did a fine job in all aspects in his first season last year in turning this into a competitive football team. It was a young team last year, but now it’s loaded with young veterans and a plethora of talent to give the Packers a run for their money in the NFC North.

Zimmer was the architect of many strong Cincinnati defenses over the past few years. Well, it took him just one season to make drastic improvements in Minnesota. He took a defense that gave up 30 points per game in 2013 to an 8.6-point improvement and only 21.4 points per game in 2014. The Vikings finished a very respectable 14th in total defense. This stop unit is only going to be better in 2015 with some key additions in the draft (CB Trae Waynes, LB Eric Kendricks) and in free agency (CB Terrence Newman).

But the real reason to be excited about this team is getting Adrian Peterson back for a full season. He missed all but one game last year, yet the Vikings still went 7-9. Teddy Bridgewater took over the starting QB role midseason and managed to lead the Vikings to a 5-4 finish in his final nine games. Again, that’s impressive when you consider Peterson was not around for it.

Bridgewater finished the season with 2,919 passing yards while completing 64.4 percent of his passes and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. He also rushed for 209 yards and a score. Now offensive coordinator Norv Turner has provided Bridgewater with the deep threat he was missing last year. Mike Wallace comes over from Miami after scoring 10 touchdowns for the Dolphins last year. He’ll be paired with Charles Johnson, who was one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. A healthy Kyle Rudolph at tight end now gives this offense almost zero weaknesses.

The 49ers are an absolute mess. It has been well documented this offseason, but it’s the truth. The loss of a winning head coach like Jim Harbaugh is devastating enough, but the personnel losses are even bigger. Gone are Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, Patrick Willis, Michael Crabtree, Chris Borland, Perrish Cox and Aldon Smith. One of their key free-agent acquisitions was Darnell Dockett, but he was released prior to the season due to poor performance.

San Francisco will still have a respectable defense despite all of these losses on that side of the ball, but the offense is the main issue. Colin Kaepernick should have never been given a big contract. He has no accuracy in the passing game, and he did not look comfortable in the preseason. He took too many sacks behind a poor offensive line. The receiving corps is too slow, and with Gore gone, the running game is a question mark even with the emergence of Carlos Hyde. There just isn’t must to like about this San Francisco offense that managed a mere 19.1 points per game last year.

Simply put, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Vikings are certainly a team on the rise that had Super Bowl aspirations as soon as this year, while the 49ers are in full-blown rebuilding mode. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 over the past two seasons. This basically shows that when they’re up against an elite defensive team like Minnesota, they don’t have the offense to perform well.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants are going to come into the 2015 season highly motivated after failing to make the playoffs five of the past six years. I like the direction that the front office has gone in rebuilding the offensive and defensive lines in recent years to get stronger up front. I believe that is going to start to pay off this year.

The Giants couldn’t have had any worse luck than they did last year. They were ravaged by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL. With a little better luck in the health department this year, the Giants are good enough to get back into NFC East title contention.

New York’s offense made huge strides last season in the second year of Bob McAdoo’s system. They ranked 10th in total offense and 7th in passing offense. Eli Manning had one of his best seasons ever, throwing for 4,410 yards and 30 touchdowns while setting a career high with a 63.1 completion percentage. This offense really hit its stride once Odell Beckham Jr. took over.

The Giants scored 28, 24, 36, 24, 37 and 26 points over their final six games for an average of 29.2 points per game. Beckham had 60 receptions for 842 yards and nine touchdowns over that six-game stretch. He may be the best receiver in the NFL already. Now they added Shane Vereen for another weapon out of the backfield. Vereen had 52 receptions in New England last year.

The defense must improve after giving up 25.0 points per game last season. So they brought in coordinator Steve Spaguolo, who was here in 2007 and 2008 and was the architect of the stop unit that beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 42. They added Alabama safety Landon Collins in the second round, and he’ll start right away. Middle linebacker Jon Beason is finally healthy after missing 40 games over the past four seasons.

When corners Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara were on the field at the same time, they played very well together last year. But Amukamara missed half the season with a torn bicep. Getting him back healthy will be a huge boost to this defense because he’s already one of the better corners in the league.

The Cowboys come into the season overvalued off their surprising 12-4 season last year that came out of nowhere. That is being reflected in this line right off the start with the Cowboys as 6-point favorites. Their offense won’t be as good without DeMarco Murray, and their defense only ranked 19th last year and still lacks talent.

Dallas has three starters out on defense for the opener as well. Defensive end Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain will both miss the first four games due to suspension. Their best corner in Orlando Scandrick suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp. Brandon Carr has not lived up to the massive contract he signed in the offseason, and former first-round pick Morris Claiborne has been a bust up to this point. They did use a first-round pick on UConn corner Byron Jones, but he’s not going to be a star from Day 1. The Giants are simply in much better shape at the CB positions, and that’s key because this is going to be a very pass-heavy game.

Finally, the Giants are going to be highly motivated to put an end to a 4-game losing streak to the Cowboys. Three of those four losses came by 5 points or less, and four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or fewer. That fact alone shows you that there is value in backing the Giants as 6-point dogs here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Bengals/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3

I was very impressed with what I saw out of the Oakland Raiders in the preseason. Their defense was dominant, especially in a Week 3 game against the Arizona Cardinals where they were all over Carson Palmer throughout the first half.  The Cardinals could do nothing offensively against this defense.

The Raiders are clearly a team on the rise as they have gotten rid of their salary cap issues that have hurt them in the past, and now they are stocked with young, cheap talent in most areas.  I look for the Raiders to really surprise some teams this year behind the improvement of Derek Carr in his second season.

They added some very solid players this offseason, spending their cap money wisely on center Rodney Hudson, MLB Curtis Lofton, DE Dan Williams and WR Michael Crabtree, among others.  They also drafted the top wideout in Amari Cooper with their first pick, and he and Crabtree will be far and away better receivers than what Carr had to work with last year.  The Raiders have really emphasized strong offensive and defensive lines in their rebuilding project, too, and should be much stronger at the point of attack now.

While the Raiders won three of their final six games last year and should build off of that, this play is more about how down I am on Cincinnati than anything.  The Bengals went 10-5-1 last year despite getting outgained by an average of 11.3 yards per game on the season.  That is almost impossible to do.  They ranked 15th in total offense and 22nd in total defense.

The slip the defense made last year was very noticeable.  They lost defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer last offseason as he became the head coach of the Vikings.  This once-dominant defense under Zimmer now became soft.  Plus, this if a very old defense that isn't going to be any better this year.  The Bengals did almost nothing to address their needs on defense, only adding guys like Michael Johnson and A.J. Hawk, who are no more than replacement-level starters in this league.  They used their first three picks of the draft on offense, which was a mistake.

The defense had a league-low 20 sacks last year and won't be able to get pressure on Carr and the improved offensive line in Oakland.  Andy Dalton is not a very good quarterback, and his weapons outside of A.J. Green are sub-par to say the least.  The Bengals do have a strong offensive line and running game, but I look for the Raiders to load the box to stop it.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between these teams.  The Raiders have won four of the past six meetings overall.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings as well.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3

These are two very similar teams who have strong defenses and questions on offense.  The thing is I believe the Jets to have the better defense and much fewer questions on offense.  I look for the Jets to roll the Browns at home in the season opener for both teams Sunday.

Head coach Todd Bowles worked magic as the defensive coordinator in Arizona the past couple years.  He got the most out of the talent on hand, which was less talent than what he'll have to work with in New York.  The Jets could legitimately have the league's best defense this season.

They ranked 6th in the NFL in total defense last year.  Now they have added former Jets Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, giving them arguably the best CB tandem in the NFL.  They already had a strong front seven with their only weaknesses in the secondary.  Now this defense no longer has any weaknesses.

I think the Jets will actually be better offensively this season than most give them credit for.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a steadying hand at QB, and it was actually a blessing in disguise that Geno Smith suffered a broken jaw in training camp, because he's not nearly as good as Fitzpatrick.  I like the weapons at his disposal as well with the addition of Brandon Marshall to go along with Eric Decker.  The rushing attack should be strong with Chris Ivory leading the way behind a solid offensive line.  Ivory rushed for 820 yards on only 198 carries last year.

The Jets should find plenty of success on the ground in this one against a Cleveland defense that ranked 23rd overall and 31st against the run.  They also ranked just 27th in sacks (31) last season.  The Browns do have a very strong secondary, but even with Joe Haden, it's not as good as the secondary the Jets have to offer this season.

The biggest reason for this pick is that I do not think the Browns will be able to do anything offensively.  They still have arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL with Josh McCown starting.  He was terrible in Tampa Bay last year and he even had two stud receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.  Now, McCown will be throwing to guys like Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins.  If the Panthers don't have the worst receivers in the NFL, than the Browns certainly do.  They are also unsettled at running back.

The Jets are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Browns, most recently winning 24-13 at home as 2.5-point favorites in 2013.  I foresee a similar outcome in this meeting.  The Browns are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 1.  The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC opponents.  New York could surprise some people this year.  Take the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -3

The Miami Dolphins are a team on the rise.  After back-to-back 8-8 seasons, they are ready to break through and make the playoffs in 2015.  They have all the pieces in place to give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East this year.

The Dolphins put up their best offensive yardage ranking (14th) since 2008 and their best points ranking (11th) since 2001, which are the last two years the Dolphins made the playoffs.  Ryan Tannehill is one of the most underrated young starters in the game, and now he enters the second year of Bill Lazor's offense.  This is going to be one of the best offenses in the league as Tannehill has a plethora of weapons around him with the additions of Jordan Cameron, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills to go along with Jarvis Landry.

The defense is another reason to be excited about the Dolphins.  They finished 12th in the league in total defense last year and will be dominant this season.  That's because they have added the top free agent on the marked in Ndamukong Suh.  He was the catalyst behind Detroit's top-ranked defense last season.  This will be one of the most dominant defensive lines in the league as Suh joins Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.

Washington is a mess right now off a 4-12 season.  Robert Griffin III has essentially been shown the door, and the turnover-prone Kirk Cousins is taking his place.  The offensive line can't protect him as the trio of Griffin III, Cousins and Colt McCoy were sacked 58 times last year.  This offensive line hasn't gotten much better in the offseason, so look for Suh and company to be in Cousin's hip pocket all day long.

The Redskins won't be much better defensively, either.  They ranked 30th in scoring defense last year at 27.4 points per game allowed.  They did make some nice moves this offseason in adding guys like Terrance Knighton, but they have a long way to go before being among the better defenses in the NFL.  This is still one of the league's worst stop units.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 335 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Washington is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 September home games.  Take the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +3

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team to look out for in 2015.  They enter Year 3 under Gus Bradley and have stockpiled a bunch of young talent while rebuilding over the last two years.  Now that young talent is going to pay off in 2015 with a much more competitive team.

Blake Bortles got comfortable with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in his rookie season last year while getting his feet wet.  By all indications, Bortles looks like the franchise QB that the Jaguars were hoping for.  Look for him to take a gigantic leap in Year 2.  There is a lot of positive vibes coming out of the locker room with this team as several members have stated that they are going to surprise some people this year, and I agree.

Bradley is a very good defensive mind who now has the right pieces in place to fit his system.  The Jaguars improved by leaps and bounds defensively last season, especially when it came to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  They finished 6th in the league in sacks.  The return of their leader on defense in Paul Posluszny from injury will make them much stronger against the run this season.  He missed nine games last year with a torn chest.

While I do think the Jaguars will be improved, the biggest reason for this play is that I think Carolina is going to be absolutely horrid this season.  The Panthers won the NFC South last year with a 7-8-1 record, and they did so after opening the season 3-8-1.  So they simply finished strong the last four weeks of the season while everyone else in this pathetic division faltered.

The Panthers did little to improve their team this offseason and lost more than they gained.  The offense is in really bad shape as Cam Newton has the worst group of receivers in the league after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the preseason.  Benjamin had 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie last year and is a massive loss.

That leaves Ted Ginn Jr. who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the past five season, and Corey Brown as the starters.  Brown had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season.  It's clear to me that Jacksonville is going to be able to load the box and stop the running game, because the Panthers aren't threats in the passing game at all this year.

Yes, Carolina has a solid defense, but this stop unit is overrated in my book because of the attention that Luke Keuchly gets.  Even with him, the Panthers still allowed 23.4 points per game last season.  That's not the kind of number that would go with 'elite defense' like many like to peg the Panthers as being.  They still have holes in a lot of places, especially in the secondary where the Jaguars should be able to take advantage.

Jacksonville is going to come out with something to prove in the opener.  I look for Bortles and company to have a big day through the air against a poor Carolina secondary.  I also look for their defense to shut down the one-dimensional Panthers do to their lack of weapons outside.  Jacksonville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 Week 1 games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +6.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions in 2015.  The San Jose State Spartans are clearly a team on the rise that is undervalued, while the Air Force Falcons are primed to decline and are overvalued right now.  That creates the perfect storm to back an SJSU team that I fully expect to win outright Saturday.

San Jose State has had some very poor luck in Ron Carragher's first two seasons.  The Spartans did go 6-6 in 2013, but were not selected to a bowl game.  They slipped to 3-9 last year despite finishing with the third-best yardage differential (+82.8 yards/game) of all Mountain West teams.  They outgained all opponents by 42 yards per game on the season.  But they were -12 in turnovers and had poor offensive (20.4) and defensive (12.1) yards per point.

With 16 returning starters this season, the Carragher has by far his best team yet.  That was evident in the opener as San Jose State crushed New Hampshire 43-13.  Sure, New Hampshire is an FCS team, but it entered the 2015 season as the No. 7 FCS team in the country.  What did Vegas think of New Hampshire?  Well, SJSU was only a 6-point favorite, yet it won by 30 points.

Believe it or not, that 30-point win actually should have been bigger.  The Spartans outgained New Hampshire 707-186, or by 521 total yards.  That's right, the Spartans racked up 707 yards of total offense.  This was an offense that brought back a whopping 10 returning starters from last year, so it was going to be good, but nobody expected it to be this good.  Before long the secret will be out and there won't be as much value in backing SJSU, but for right now, this team is completely flying under the radar.

Air Force was the most improved team in the country last year, going from 2-10 in 2013 to 10-3 in 2014.  But the Falcons had 16 starters back last season after having just 10 back the year before, so they were bounce-back candidates.  They certainly weren't as good as their 10-3 record would indicate, though.  They were actually outgained by 20.1 yards per game in Mountain West play in spite of their 5-3 record.

Now the Falcons return just 11 starters this season. They lose QB Kale Pearson, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season and actually gave the Falcons a threat of a passing game, which is something they rarely have running the triple-option.  They only have four starters back on defense from a unit that had nine starters back last year and gave up 395 yards per game.  This is going to be one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  To compare, SJSU only gave up 357 yards per game last season

Air Force also beat an FCS opponent in Morgan State 63-7 last week.  But Morgan State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country as the Falcons were 32.5-point favorites in that game.  The Falcons also used a special teams touchdown and a defensive TD to pad the score.  I'm not saying the Falcons won't be decent again, but I really believe the Spartans are the better team in this one.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 2-9 ATS in a home game when the total is 56.5 to 63 as the coach of Air Force.  His teams rarely have the firepower to keep up in shootouts, which is what this game is expected to be.  San Jose State is 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games after scoring 37 or more points in its previous game.  The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Air Force is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 conference games.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Western Michigan -4.5

I am very high on the Western Michigan Broncos this season and believe they are the best team in the MAC.  Head coach PJ Fleck went just 1-11 in his first season in Kalamazoo, but then guided the Broncos to one of the best turnarounds in the country with an 8-5 record in 2014.

The blew a 21-10 halftime lead to Northern Illinois, otherwise they would have gone on to win the MAC Championship.  They are even stronger in 2015 with 16 returning starters.  This is easily the most talented team in the MAC.  They return QB Zach Terrell, who completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,443 yards with a 26-to-10 TD/INT ratio.

Leading rusher Jarvion Franklin (1,551 yards, 24 TD) and all of the top receivers are back, including Corey Davis (78 receptions, 1,408 yards, 15 TD) and Daniel Braverman (86, 997, 6 TD).  The defense is going to be even better this year with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 24.9 points per game last year.

I was very impressed with WMU in the opener.  It only lost 24-37 at home to Michigan State, which is considered a national title contender.  It was only outgained by 69 total yards against the Spartans.  The defense limited senior QB Connor Cook to 15-of-31 passing, and they held their own against the run.  Terrell went wild on a very good Spartans' defense, completing 33-of-50 passes for 365 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  That effort proved to me that my lofty expectations for this team are warranted.

Georgia Southern caught everyone by surprise last year en route to a 9-3 season that included a perfect 8-0 record in the Sun Belt and a conference championship.  It won't have that luxury again now that teams have game tape on them to go off of after last season was their first as a member of the FBS.

The Eagles do have a respectable 13 returning starters back, but their most important returning starter is suspender.  QB Kevin Ellison, who was the leader of this team last year and their most important player, has been suspended for the first two games of the season.  Ellison threw for 1,001 yards and five touchdowns against three interceptions last year, but rushed for 1,096 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per game.

This offense clearly missed Ellison in the opener.  Georgia Southern was destroyed 44-0 at West Virginia as 16-point underdogs.  The Eagles were outgained 544-224 for the game, or by 320 total yards.  Backup QB Favian Upshaw went just 2-of-13 passing for 29 yards with a whopping four interceptions in the loss.  It's clear to me after that performance that Georgia Southern is nothing without Ellison, and that's it's defense is not going to be able to hold up against this high-powered WMU offense.

Plays against any team (GA SOUTHERN) - poor passing team from last season - averaged 150 or less passing yards/game, with 8 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on of 3.5 to 10 points (W MICHIGAN) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  WMU is 9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Western Michigan Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK Eastern Michigan +13.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan off three straight 2-10 seasons.  That's understandable, but this team is going to make some real progress in the second year under Chris Creighton in 2015.  He welcomes back 13 starters this season, and after the Eagles went just 2-10 ATS last year, they are going to be showing a lot of value this season early and often.

That was the case against Old Dominion in the opener as the Eagles were 6.5-point underdogs and covered the spread, losing by a final of 34-38.  That was a solid Old Dominion team that had gone 6-6 the previous season with impressive wins over Louisiana Tech and Rice.  The Eagles arguably should have beaten the Monarchs, too.

They outgained Old Dominion 444-413 for the game, but only lost due to a -3 turnover differential.  They also had QB Reginald Ball get hurt after they were tied going into the 4th quarter.  Ball is questionable to return this week, but head Creighton is optimistic, and even if Ball cannot go then he is very confident in backup Brogan Roback.

“Brogan (Roback) is prepared and he’s taken nearly as many reps all of fall camp as Reggie has,” Creighton said of his sophomore backup. “We have two quality quarterbacks.”  Bell went 12-of-18 passing for 117 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, while Roback was 10-of-17 for 71 yards with in interception while filling in for him.

While I do believe the Eagles are vastly improved this season, the biggest reason for this play is that I do not believe Wyoming should be getting this much love from oddsmakers.  The Cowboys went just 4-8 in Craig Bohl's first season last year despite having 16 returning starters.  Now they have only nine returning starters in 2015 and are pretty much rebuilding, while Eastern Michigan is past that rebuilding phase.

Wyoming showed its rebuilding ways in its 13-24 home loss to FCS foe North Dakota despite being 18-point favorites in the opener.  It was dominated in all phases of the game, which is a bad sign when you consider North Dakota isn't even among the top 30 FCS teams in the country.  North Dakota outgained Wyoming 429-330 for the game, or by 99 total yards.  The Cowboys could only managed 2.2 yards per rush with 41 yards on 19 carries.  Conversely, they gave up 276 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry to North Dakota.

Just like Eastern Michigan, Wyoming QB Cameron Coffman is questionable to play and will likely be a game-time decision.  That's big because Coffman threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns against North Dakota in a losing effort.  Coffman is a former Indiana transfer who actually finished second in passing yards per game in the Big Ten back in 2012.  Even if by chance Coffman plays and Ball does not, I still like EMU to cover this spread with ease.

Plays against favorites (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against a home team (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 44-11 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in its last game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +13

I actually have UMass picked to win the MAC East division this season, that's how highly I think of them despite going 5-31 over the past three seasons.  Head coach Mark Whipple was here from '98-'03 and took over a 2-9 team and led them to the IAA National Championship in his first season.

Whipple inherited a 1-11 team last year and took the Minutemen to 3-9, but this had to be one of the best 9-loss teams in the country.  The Minutemen had 5 losses by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 3 to both Colorado and Vanderbilt, by 5 to Bowling Green after leading in the 4th quarter, blew a 41-14 lead against Miami to lose by 1, and gave up a touchdown with 34 seconds left to lose to Toledo by 7.

Now the Minutemen return 19 starters and will be under the radar from the get-go.  That includes QB Blake Frohnapfel, maybe the most underrated QB in the entire country.  How important is Frohnapfel to this team?  Well, the Minutemen have outgained MAC opponents by 108 yards per game with him, and they've been outgained by 197 yards per game without him.

Frohnapfel threw for 3,345 yards and 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions over the team's first 10 starts last year.  The offense is going to be explosive again after averaging 421 yards per game last season with 10 starters back.  But look for huge improvements on defense with nine starters back from a unit that gave up 448 yards per game last season with only five starts back.  The Minutemen have a very nice set of LB's and DB's in particular.

I really thought Colorado had a chance to make some progress this year, but it's clear after a 28-20 loss at Hawaii in the opener that the Buffaloes are still hurting.  They turned the ball over three times and QB Sefo Liufau went just 23-of-40 passing for 158 yards with an interception.  That is not a very good Hawaii team, and one that has lost at least nine games each of the past three seasons.

UMass gave Colorado a run for its money last year.  It only lost 38-41 at home as 17.5-point underdogs.  Frohnapfel threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns with one pick in the loss.  I believe the Minutemen will be hungry for revenge in the rematch exactly one year later.  This spread has simply been set way too high due to the 19 starters the Minutemen have returning from that 3-point defeat to the Buffaloes.

The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games.  UMass is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.  Colorado has just 10 wins over the past four seasons and enters this contest on a 9-game losing streak.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Connecticut -7

The UConn Huskies are a team that is flying under the radar entering 2015.  They went just 2-10 in head coach Bob Diaco's first season last year.  But they had just 12 returning starters, and now that number jumps to 14 with 52 lettermen returning and only 13 letter winners lost.  I fully expect the Huskies to be improved in the second season under Diaco.

They are off to a promising start.  Despite facing an FCS opponent in Villanova, the Huskies were actually 7-point underdogs in their opener.  Well, when you consider Villanova is the No. 2 ranked FCS team in the country, it's easy to see why.  That's why the Huskies' 20-15 win over Villanova wasn't your usual blah FCS win.

Connecticut is going to have a very good defense this season, just as it did last year when it gave up a respectable 379 yards per game.  But now eight starters are back on this side of the ball, and this will be the backbone of the team.  The Huskies played well defensively, giving up just 303 total yards to Villanova in the opener.  It help them to 3.2 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass.

UConn is going to be much better offensively this season behind sophomore Bryant Shirreffs, a former NC State transfer.  He's off to a great start by completing 12 of 20 passes for 202 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against Villanova.  He threw a 27-yard TD pass to Akeel Newsome with 4:53 remaining to put the game out of reach.  The Huskies led 20-9 at that point before a touchdown in garbage time by Villanova with 1:54 left.

Army is coming off a 4-8 season last year despite having 14 returning starters.  It now has just 10 returning starters in 2015, while losing each of its top three rushers on offense, including QB Angle Santiago.  The defense gave up 32.9 points and 431 yards per game last season and has just five starters back and will be awful again.

That was evident in Army's 35-37 home loss to Fordham last week.  Fordham is another FCS opponent, but it was only ranked No. 21 in the FCS rankings and nowhere near as good as Villanova.  The Black Knights were expected to roll as 13.5-point favorites, but it simply did not happen.  They were actually outgained by 56 yards in the game and gave up 445 yards to Fordham.  I believe that effort will be a sign of things to come for Army in 2015, especially this week given the situation.

UConn will be motivated for revenge in this one.  It lost to Army 21-35 last year on the road, but now it gets the Black Knights at home in the rematch.  That was far from the 14-point game that it appeared to be as the Huskies were only outgained 353-365 for the game.  UConn was actually going in for the game-tying score when Army intercepted a pass and returned it 99 yards for a TD with only 28 seconds remaining.

Army is 0-10 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  UConn is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off an upset win as an underdog.  The Black Knights are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  Take UConn Saturday.

20* Utah State/Utah ESPN 2 Rivalry Play on Utah -11.5

The Utah Utes are coming off their best season since joining the Pac-12.  They went 9-4 last year and finished with a winning record within the Pac-12 for the first time.  Sure, they were fortunate to win a lot of close games, but this is a team that can compete in the stacked South division.

With 14 starters and 61 lettermen back, this is Kyle Whittingham's best team that he has had at Utah yet.  I liked what I saw from the Utes in their opener against Michigan as they led 24-10 before giving up a garbage touchdown with only 54 seconds to play for a 24-17 victory.  That was a Michigan team that will prove to be vastly improved this year as the season goes on, and when we look back, I believe that win over the Wolverines will be even more impressive than it is today.

I certainly was not impressed with Utah State in its opener.  It only beat Southern Utah 12-9 despite being 31-point favorites.  It actually needed an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown with 4:54 left to play to overcome a 9-5 deficit.  I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team not only Friday, but as the season progresses.

The Aggies only managed 250 total yards on Southern Utah.  Chuckie Keeton clearly isn't what he used to be as injuries have really taken their toll on him throughout his career.  Keeton went just 16-of-33 passing for 110 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for only seven yards on six carries.

Utah State is missing some key players in this one.  Starting WR Brandon Swindall is questionable with a hamstring injury, and starting LG Tyshon Mosley is expected to miss this game due to suspension.  But the biggest loss is WR Hunter Sharp, who was by far their best receiver last year.  He had 66 receptions for 939 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and he has been suspended for this game.  Utah checks in very healthy.

Keep in mind that Utah beat a very good Mountain West team in Colorado State 45-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl last year.  That's a Colorado State team that went 10-3 and was certainly better than Utah State.  I would even argue that the Rams were nearly as good as Boise State last year, and the Utes beat them by 35.

Utah is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Utah State.  Eight of its last nine wins in the series have come by 16 points or more.  The Utes are 38-17-2 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games, including 8-0 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last four September games.  Bet Utah Friday.

20* Steelers/Patriots 2015 NFL Season Opener on Pittsburgh +7

There’s no doubt that Tom Brady is worth a few points. But four? That seems a little high to me. New England was only a 3-point favorite over Pittsburgh when it was assumed that Brady would be serving a four-game suspension to start the season. But now that Brady won his appeal and will play, oddsmakers have moved this line to New England -7. The value is now with the Steelers in this one in my opinion.

I always look to fade teams off a Super Bowl victory early in the season. They tend to not come back as motivated the following year, and their training camp is much more laid back than most other teams. When you’re on top of the world, it’s even harder to get back there because of overconfidence and always having a target on your back each week.

While New England will no doubt be good again this year, remember, it started just 2-2 last season as well. I don’t expect the Patriots to be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate, especially with all of the distractions from ‘Deflategate’. They haven’t had many game reps with Tom Brady in the preseason, and the ones they had weren’t very productive.

In his first two games of the preseason, four of his five drives were three-and-outs, while completing just 3-of-9 passes. He was even worse against the Panthers, throwing a pair of interceptions in Game 3. With Brady under center, they didn’t score a touchdown until his 12th possession of the preseason. Of course, it is just the preseason, but I really do expect this offense to be a little bit out of sync to open the year.

There’s no doubt the Steelers have concerns of their own offensively. Running back Le’Veon Bell will miss the first two games due to suspension, WR Martavis Bryant will miss the first four games due to suspension, and center Maurkice Pouncey won’t be able to return from an ankle injury until at least Week 12.

While concerning, this is still a Pittsburgh offense that ranked second in the NFL at 411.1 yards per game last season. I still expect it to find plenty of success against this New England defense. The Patriots certainly got worse on this side of the ball in the offseason by parting ways with CB Darrelle Revis, CB Brandon Browner, CB Kyle Arrington and DT Vince Wilfork. I would rate their secondary below-average now, and I expect Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown to have big games.

The Steelers will be energized defensively as they have gotten younger this offseason, letting go of Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jason Worilds. They have been using early draft picks on defense each of the past few seasons, and first-round pick Bud Dupree should be a factor from the start. They also get back a healthy Ryan Shazier at linebacker this year, who was a first-round pick last season. In fact, the Steelers could be starting four former first-round picks at linebacker this season. This youthful defense is the wild card, but I believe they start making progress this year after a couple of down years in a row defensively.

Pittsburgh is grabbing the headlines because of its injuries and suspensions, but New England has some sneaky important injuries and suspensions of its own.  Starting running back LeGarrette Blount is out due to suspension.  No. 2 receiver Brandon LaFell is out with a foot injury.  Starting center Bryan Stork is doubtful with a concussion, so the Patriots are also without their center, just like the Steelers are.  No. 1 receiver Julian Edelmen is expected to play, though he's nursing an ankle injury.  I just don't believe the Patriots will have the firepower offensively out of the gate to win this game by more than a touchdown to beat us.  Bet the Steelers Thursday.

15* LA Tech/WKU Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Louisiana Tech was easily the second-best team in Conference USA last season.  It won the West division and went on to face Marshall in the Championship Game, losing that contest by a final of 23-26 as 7-point underdogs.  That was a Marshall team that went 13-1 last year and rarely played any close games.

Now the Bulldogs return 13 starters this season and are clearly a threat to win Conference USA again.  They do lose QB Cody Sokol, but they brought in former No. 1 QB recruit in the country in Jeff Driskel, a Florida transfer.  This is Driskel's senior season and his last chance to shine, so he's going to be committed to this team.  Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's going from facing very tough SEC competition to Conference USA competition, which is like night and day.

It also doesn't hurt that Driskel has all of his top playmakers back from last year.  Leading rusher Kenneth Dixon (1,299 yards, 22 TD) and each of his top three receivers in Trent Taylor (64 receptions, 834 yards, 9 TD), Carlos Henderson (29, 569, 4 TD) and Paul Turner (42, 514, 4 TD) are also back.  The Bulldogs return six starters and each of their top two tacklers on defense from a unit that gave up a respectable 24.7 PPG last year as well.

Driskel and company put on a show in their 62-15 rout of Southern in the opener.  They led 52-8 at halftime before calling off the dogs.  That was plenty of time for Driskel to complete 12-of-15 passes for 274 yards and four touchdowns.  It was also enough time for Kenneth Dixon to rack up 171 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on only 11 touches.  It's safe to say that this offense is going to be explosive again.

Western Kentucky does have 16 starters back from last year and is among the favorites to win Conference USA as well.  But I just do not trust this team, especially defensively, where they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game last season.  Plus, the Hilltoppers were not impressive at all in their opener against the worst team from the SEC in Vanderbilt.

Sure, they won the game 14-12 as 2-point favorites, but the box score indicates that the Hilltoppers were dominated.  They simply benefited from three costly Vanderbilt turnovers.  They were outgained 246-393, or by 147 total yards.  Their running game produced only 37 yards on 23 carries for an average of 1.6 per carry.  Brandon Doughty was held to 209 passing yards and one touchdown, which are terrible numbers for him.  The Commodores, not known for their offense, racked up 393 yards on this soft defense.  I just believe it's a sign of things to come for the Hilltoppers in this game.

Plus, Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky 59-10 last year in a game that was every bit the 49-point blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Hilltoppers 517-297 for the game.  They held Doughty to 14-of-35 passing for 134 yards and one touchdown with four interceptions.  Sokol threw for 335 yards and five touchdowns in the win.  It's clear that Holtz and company have the antidote for this WKU offense. 

Can the Hilltoppers improve by 49 points from one season to the next? It's highly unlikely.  LA Tech is 9-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last two seasons.  WKU is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +14

While I don’t expect the Buckeyes to overlook the Hokies again, I do believe Virginia Tech is fully capable of pulling off another upset. I am very high on the Hokies heading into 2015 because they return 16 starters and this will be one of Frank Beamer’s best teams yet. I predicted that they’d win the Coastal Division and make the ACC Championship Game this year coming into the season.

This is a Virginia Tech team that has won at least 10 games in eight straight seasons prior to failing to win more than eight each of the last three years. Beamer enters his 29th season in Blacksburg and desperately wants to get back to the top of the ACC, which has been a familiar spot for this program up until recently. With 58 lettermen back as well, this team has the depth and talent to do so.

The offense held the Hokies back last year, but it should be vastly improved in 2015 with eight starters back. Quarterback Michael Brewer is now a senior who will be more efficient in Year 2 of the system. He went 23-of-36 for 199 yards against the Buckeyes last season and will be able to lean on that performance to put together another solid one in the rematch. Each of the top three receivers from last year were freshmen, and all three are now sophomores and will have much better chemistry with Brewer.

But the reason Virginia Tech has a chance to pull the upset is its defense. It allowed 20.2 points and 344 yards per game last season and will be even stronger in 2015. That’s because eight starters return on this side of the ball. The entire defensive line returns intact and will be one of the best in the country. The secondary gave up just 199 yards per game and 47.7 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks last season, and now three starters are back, including future NFL star Kendall Fuller at corner.

Ohio State simply enters the 2015 season overvalued due to winning the National Championship. It will have a hard time living up to expectations now, and I believe if you went against the Buckeyes ATS in every game this season, you would come out on top. Some of the spreads they have set for their games are ridiculous, including this one. While there’s no denying that the Buckeyes have the easiest path to get to the four-team playoff because they play in the Big Ten, they just aren’t going to be as dominant as most think.

The Buckeyes will be missing some key players in this game. Defensive end Joey Bosa, H-Back Jalin Marshall, WR Corey Smith and H-Back Dontre Wilson are all suspended. Bosa is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, so his loss is huge. Marshall (30 receptions, 499 yards, 6 TD), Wilson (21, 300, 3 TD) and Smith (20, 255) are three of the team’s top four returning receivers as well. These losses are huge and will put the Buckeyes at a big disadvantage in the opener. Keep in mind that Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* Purdue/Marshall Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +7.5

This is the year that Purdue makes a big leap forward.  Darrell Hazell enters his 3rd season with the Boilermakers, and he's squarely on the hot seat after going 1-11 in his first season and 3-9 last year.  But all signs are pointing up for this team heading into 2015.

The Boilermakers actually made big improvements last year despite only improving by two wins.  They were outscored by 23.1 points per game in 2013, but just 7.9 points per game last year, making 15.2-point improvement.  Another big jump can be expected this year with a whopping 15 starters and 50 lettermen back and only 17 letter winners lost.  Coaches usually make their biggest jump in Year 3, and it will be no different for Hazell.

The offense improved by roughly 8 points and 62 yards per game from 2013 last year.  Another step forward should be taken with eight starters back on this side of the ball.  They return leading receiver Danny Anthrop, who had 616 receiving yards and four touchdowns despite missing the final three games last year.

The defense improved by 7.3 points and 44 yards per game from 2013 to 2014.  Again, another step forward can be expected with seven starters and four of their top five tacklers back.  There was concern about some injuries at linebacker, but all three returning starters at LB are expected to be ready to go against Marshall.

The Thundering Herd enter the 2015 season overvalued because of how well they did last season.  They went 13-1 last season, but the only relevant team they faced all year was Western Kentucky, and they lost that game.  Marshall's schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in every game and by double-digits 12 times.

After having 14 starters back last year, the Thundering Herd only have 11 starters returning in 2015.  They lose the school's all-time leading passer in Rakeem Cato (14,079 yards), which is the program's biggest loss since Randy Moss left for the NFL.  They also lose leading receiver Tommy Shulder (92 receptions, 1,138 yards, 9 TD), who had 55 more receptions than second place on the team.

The offense is sure to take a huge step back with those two losses, and the defense only have five starters back.  They lose their top two tacklers who each registered more than 100 tacklers last year.  They only have two returning starters among the front seven, so they are going to be much weaker up front defensively.

The value is clearly with the Big Ten team over the team from Conference USA in this one.  Most of the time, the Big Ten team would be favored in this situation.  But since Purdue only won four games the past two years combined, and Marshall won 13 games last year alone, the betting public is quick to jump on the Thundering Herd.  But these are two teams headed opposite directions entering 2015 folks.  The Boilermakers are on the rise, while the Thundering Herd are in rebuilding mode.  Bet Purdue Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Alabama ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -12

This one is pretty easy for me. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the supremely talented team, but I believe the questions surrounding the quarterback position have kept this line lower than it should be. When is the last time Alabama didn’t have good quarterback play? Not since Nick Saban has been here, and I’m sure whoever they go with will be more than good enough to lead them to a blowout win over the Badgers.

The questions for the Crimson Tide are on offense with just three returning starters and the loss of Amari Cooper, but the talent on this side of the ball is second to none. This is an offense that put up 36.9 points and 485 yards per game last season in the first year under coordinator Lane Kiffin. They will be explosive again with the new starters ready to step in and pick up where they left off.

But what really excites me about this Alabama team is the defense. It only gave up 18.4 points and 328 yards per game last year despite having only five starters back. Now, the Crimson Tide will have one of their best defenses of the Saban era with seven starters returning. Five of seven starters are back up front and will be prepared to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack. The Crimson Tide only gave up 102 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry last season.

This is a match-up tailor made for the Crimson Tide. The only offenses they have struggled with through the years are ones that spread you out and pass it all over the field. Wisconsin doesn’t have that ability. It has one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. Senior Joel Stave completed just 53.4 percent of his passes for 1,350 yards with a 9-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio last year. He is back as the starter, and the Crimson Tide aren’t going to have to worry about the Badgers' passing game one bit with Stave at the helm.

Yes, the Badgers always have an explosive running game and a great offensive line. That should be the case again even though they lose Melvin Gordon and three starters along the offensive line. I don’t expect them to be as dominant on the ground as they were last year with the losses, but they will be good. But Alabama stops the run as well as almost anyone, so again, it’s just a perfect match-up for the Crimson Tide.

I do believe Wisconsin will have a solid defense this year after giving up just 20.8 points and 294 yards per game last season. It will be tough to match those numbers with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top five tacklers, but this will be a good unit. I do not expect them to hold Alabama to less than 30 points, though, and getting to 30 points will be more than enough for the Crimson Tide to cover this 10.5-point spread. Their defense isn’t going to allow more than 14 points.

Wisconsin may be overvalued here due to beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl last year.  But that was an Auburn team that was disappointed to be playing in a lesser bowl after making the National Championship Game the year before.  A better indication of what type of team the Badgers were was in their 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  Alabama lost to Ohio State as well, but led 21-6 early and only lost 35-42 in the four-team playoff.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) who won 80% or more of their games last season, in non-conference games between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Alabama is simply on another level than Wisconsin with the way it has recruited over the last several years with the top classes in the country.  Wisconsin has talent, but it is adjusting to new systems under first-year head coach Paul Chryst.  Playing a team of Alabama's caliber is not a good way to break in new systems.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M -3

I am very high on the Texas A&M Aggies this season and believe they are primed for a run at the SEC West title. They come into this season undervalued because they have gone from 11, to 9 to 8 wins in Sumlin’s first three seasons. But last year was expected to be a down year because they lost Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans and a plethora of talent.

After having just 11 returning starters each of the last two seasons, the Aggies are now a more veteran bunch as they return 16 starters in 2015. They were forced to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now those players are a year older and ready to take that next step. After all, Sumlin continues to come away with one elite recruiting class after another. It’s going to pay off sooner rather than later.

The Aggies played a freshman QB in Kyle Allen last year, and two of their top four receivers were freshmen as well. All three return and this is going to be one of the best receiving corps in the country. The Aggies still managed 35.2 points and 455 yards per game last year despite their youth, and now they should have no problem returning to close to the 44 points per game they averaged when Manziel was running the show.

But what really has me excited about this team is the defense. The Aggies managed to lure former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis to oversee the play-calling duties. He steps into a great situation with eight returning starters on defense. This will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 28.1 points and 451 yards per game last year. Their best players was a freshman in Myles Garrett, who recorded 11.5 sacks and will be an even bigger beast as a sophomore.  He even played injured down the stretch last year, and teammates think so much of him that they have named him a captain.

I am certainly not down on the Arizona State Sun Devils this season with 16 returning starters as well, but I do believe they were very fortunate to win 10 games last year. They benefited from a +14 turnover differential, and despite going 6-3 in Pac-12 play, they were actually outgained by 15 yards per game against conference opponents last season.

I don’t expect their offense to be as good with the loss of QB Taylor Kelly and leading receiver Jaelen Strong (82 receptions, 1,165 yards, 10 TD). Their defense did not play all that well last season as they allowed 27.9 points and 417 yards per game. While they could be improved in that area, I don’t expect them to take as big of a leap forward as Texas A&M on this side of the ball. The Aggies have loads more talent defensively than the Sun Devils do when you look at the recruiting rankings.

Finally, Texas A&M will have a home-field advantage despite this game being played at a neutral site.  It's only about a 1.5-hour drive from College Station to Houston, which will be the site of this game.  Meanwhile, it's over 16 hours from Tempe, AZ to Houston.  It's safe to say that the Aggies will have a distinct advantage with the crowd.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Tennessee -21

I’m about as big on Tennessee this season as anyone. In fact, I have picked them to win the SEC East with a 10-2 record. The reason is pretty simple. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes, so the talent is going to deliver the goods with this team sooner rather than later.

We saw it at the end of last year. The Vols went 4-1 over their final five games once Josh Dobbs took over as their starting quarterback. They scored 45 or more points three times during that stretch, and finished it by averaging 33.0 points per game. Dobbs completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 469 yards and eight scores. His dual-threat ability really opened up this offense.

Now Dobbs is a junior and he’s among a loaded roster that returns 18 starters and some of the best talent in the entire SEC.  Jones was forced to play 23 true freshmen last season, and now those guys are all a year older.  With the way this team finished last season by making a bowl and blowing out Iowa in it, that's a definite positive sign of things to come.

The offense is only going to pick up where it left off last year with 10 returning starters.  After having no returning starters on the offensive line last year, the Vols now return four starters up front.  Each of their receivers who factored into the passing game last year are back, as is leading rusher Jalen Hurd (899 yards, 5 TD).

The defense will continue to build on the strides it made last year. The Vols only allowed 24.2 points per game last season with five starters back, and now they have eight starters back on defense and should come close to the 20 PPG range.  They are very excited about their defensive line, which returns sophomore DE Derek Barnett (72 tackles, 21.5 for loss, 10 sacks).  The linebacker corps returns senior SLB Curt Maggitt (11 sacks), giving the Vols two double-digit sack guys back from last year.

This is the perfect storm because I’m also down on Bowling Green. The Falcons won the MAC East title last year but took advantage of a very soft division. They wound up losing to Northern Illinois 51-17 in the MAC Title game, which is more indicative of the type of team this really was, rather than an eight-game winner.

The Falcons do return 10 starters on offense and should be fine there, but the defense is what concerns me. They gave up 33.5 points and 494 yards per game last season with only five starters back. Now they return five starters again and I don’t see the numbers improving. That’s because they lose each of their top four tacklers and arguably their best four players on this side of the football.

Bowling Green was overwhelmed in its two non-conference road games last season. It lost 31-59 at Western Kentucky and 17-68 at Wisconsin. I believe this 2015 Tennessee team is better than both of those squads, and it’s not really even close. I look for the Falcons to get blown out of the building in their first non-conference road game of 2015 as well.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -6.5

James Franklin had his work cut out for him in his first season at Penn State. He was coming off back-to-back improbable 9-4 campaigns at Vanderbilt, which is no small feat. He did have 12 returning starters to work with last year and reduced sanctions, but it was still a tall task to ask for him to win in his first season.  The Nittany Lions wound up finishing 7-6 after beating Boston College 31-30 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They took national champion Ohio State into double-overtime, which shows what they are capable of.

Things are looking up for Penn State entering 2015. It has 15 returning starters, went 2-6 in Big Ten play last year despite only getting outgained by 7.5 yards per game, and now it goes from having 64 scholarship players in 2014 to 83 in 2015. That will dramatically improve their depth at all positions.  It was amazing to see the Penn State faithful fill Beaver Stadium during the probation period over the last three years. Now, those fans should be rewarded with some solid football under Franklin going forward.

The offense is in line for massive improvement after averaging just 20.6 points per game last season.  QB Christian Hackenberg is among eight returning starters on offense.  While Hackenberg had a down season last year, most experts believe he will be the first QB taken in the 2016 NFL Draft. 

The reason he struggled so much was because of inexperience along the offensive line.  But after having just one O-line starter back last year, the Nittany Lions return four starters and add in two very highly touted linemen.  The skill positions are in good hands as well with leading rusher Akeel Lynch (678 yards, 4.6/carry, 4 TD) and each of their top two receivers back in DaeSean Hamilton (82 receptions, 899 yards, 2 TD) and Geno Lewis (55, 751, 2 TD).

Penn State had one of the best defenses in the nation last year.  It allowed just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game.  With seven starters and five of its top six tacklers back on defense, this is going to be one of the top stop units in the country again.

Temple should be improved this season, but not as much as Penn State.  The Owls went 6-6 last year and return 19 starters.  But they went 4-4 in American Athletic play despite getting outgained by 69.5 yards per game.  Their defense is going to be solid again with 10 starters back, but the offense just doesn't have that much talent.

The Owls only managed 23.1 points per game last season.  Quarterback PJ Walker is experienced with two years as a starter under his belt, but he regressed last year and was simply forced to do too much.  He won't have much luck against this Penn State defense, which again, is one of the best in the country.

Penn State is 31-0 in its last 31 meetings with Temple with its last loss coming in 1941.  It beat Temple 30-13 at home last year while outgaining the Owls 366-248 for the game.  The Nittany Lions rushed for 254 yards in a turnover fest that saw both QB's combine to throw six interceptions.  A similar result can be expected in the 2015 meeting with a 17-point road victory for the Nittany Lions just about right.

Franklin is 15-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The talent gap between these teams is just enormous, but the spread isn't reflecting that, providing us with some nice value by laying the small number on the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* Baylor/SMU ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 74

Last year, these teams played to a 45-0 game that was 29 points less than Friday’s posted total of 74. I can see a similar result, or something in the 52-17 range in favor of Baylor, which would still be UNDER the total. I simply believe that both teams are going to be better defensively this year.

The reason for Baylor fans to be excited is because this is going to be Art Briles’ best defense yet. While the offense gets all the hype, it’s the defense that has made the most strides in recent years. The Bears gave up 23.5 points and 360 yards per game in 2013, and 25.5 points and 382 yards per game in 2014. Now they return nine starters on defense, and I expect them to put up their best numbers of the Briles era in 2015.

The Bears have the best defensive line in the Big 12 with all four starters returning, led by athletic freak Shawn Oakman at defensive end, who earned 1st-team All-Big 12 honors last year. The linebacker corps does lose two starters, but the entire secondary returns intact. A strong defensive line and a strong secondary gives SMU little chance of being successful here.

I don’t expect Baylor to be as potent offensively this year. Yes, it does return nine starters on offense as well, but it loses QB Bryce Petty to the NFL. I’m not sold on Seth Russell as being anywhere near the passer that Petty was. Russell only completed 56.5 percent of his passes last year and did not impress me at all in the limited action he received in place of an injury Petty.

Simply put, SMU was horrible in all phases last year. It was especially poor on offense, putting up 11.1 points and 269 yards per game. It averaged just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. I do expect it to be better under the guidance of first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson before coming here. But make no mistake, this SMU offense is still going to be one of the worst in the FBS.

One key factor here with backing the UNDER is that a blowout will lead to a very low-scoring second half. The same thing happened last year with Baylor jumping out to a 31-0 lead at half before calling off the dogs in the 45-0 win.  I expect Baylor to take its foot off the gas late in this game as well.

SMU will be lucky to score 10-14 points in this one against this superior Baylor defense. The Bears will simply run out the clock in the 4th quarter and get away from the up-tempo attack that will have gotten them a big lead. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Utah 2015 CFB Season Opener on Michigan +5

Brady Hoke did not get the most out the talent he had on hand at Michigan.  The Wolverines went from 11 wins in his first season, to 8, 7 and 5 the next three years, which is simply unacceptable in Ann Arbor.  That's why they brought in Jim Harbaugh, which was the biggest offseason hire at any program.

Harbaugh had success as a quarterback here, and he's won everywhere he's gone as a head coach.  He went 29-6 at San Diego, 29-21 at Stanford, and 49-22-1 as the head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.  The guy is a proven winner who will get this program on the right track from Day 1.

Harbaugh steps into a great situation, too.  He inherits 15 returning starters and 50 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners.  Make no mistake about it, Harbaugh will get the most out of these talented players.

He has been known as an offensive guru, and he'll certainly improve an offense that put up just 20.9 points and 333 yards per game last year.  Eight starters are back on offense, and he adds in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who started 25 games for the Hawkeyes over two seasons.  It's not been announced whether Rudock or Shane Morris will start for competitive advantage reasons, but my best guess is Rudock.

To Hoke's credit, he did coach up the defense very well as the Wolverines allowed 22 or fewer points and 322 or fewer yards per game in three of his four seasons.  This is a stop unit that returns seven starters after allowing just 311 yards per game last season.  This will once again be one of the top defenses in the country because of the returning experience and talent on hand.

Utah comes into the season way overvalued.  The Utes went 9-4 last season and finished with a winning record in Pac-12 play for the first time as a member of the conference.  But they were actually outgained by 84.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play despite their 5-4 record, which was the worst yardage differential in the entire conference.  All five of their Pac-12 wins came by 6 points or less as well.

Michigan is going to be highly motivated following a 10-26 home loss to the Utes last season.  It actually outgained Utah 308-286 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential.  It committed four turnovers in the game, which was its Achilles heel all season last year as it finished -16 in turnover differential.  Harbaugh will demand that his quarterbacks take better care of the football, and the defense is sure to create more turnovers this year.

The biggest advantage for the Wolverines is that they have a bunch of new systems in place.  They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Drevno, a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, and a new special teams coordinator in John Baxter.  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham cannot use game film from last year to game plan for the Wolverines.  I love the element of surprise that Michigan will have coming into this one.  Plus, Michigan knows what Utah is going to do after playing the Utes last year.  Utah's systems have not changed.

"It's just a hodgepodge of five, six or seven places," Whittingham told The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "We form the best-guess scenario. And that's what an opener is anyway, a best-guess scenario, we never really know. Even when you [face] a returning staff, there's still changes that come in the offseason in different schematics. But when you have a new staff, anything really is in the realm of possibility. We think we have a general idea of what to expect. You try to expose your players to everything you think they might see in fall camp. Build a game plan to accommodate all the possibilities."

Whittingham is 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 47.5

With a full two weeks to prepare for one another, the advantage has to go to the defenses in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.  Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll are arguably the two best head coaches in the NFL today, and you can bet that they will leave no stone unturned.

These are also two of the best scoring defenses in the NFL.  The Patriots only give up 19.5 points per game this season, while the Seahawks are tops in the league in allowing just 16.3 points per game.  Both defenses get better as the game goes on, too.  The Seahawks and Patriots have allowed three second-half touchdowns in their past 16 games combined.

Seattle also ranks No. 1 in the league in total defense, giving up just 274.4 yards per game this season.  It has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games overall, and 7 or fewer points in five of those.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.

The Seahawks know that they aren't going to win a shootout with the Patriots, so look for them to give Marshawn Lynch a heavy dose of carries in this game to try and move the chains and keep New England's offense off the field.  The Seahawks rank 1st in the league in rushing and will ride both Lynch and Wilson's legs offensively, which will eat up clock and aid the UNDER as well.

New England knows that if it wants any chance of beating Seattle, it is going to have to run the football.  That's because the Seahawks rank 1st in the league against the pass, giving up just 187 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Seahawks because the Patriots rely heavily on the pass to move the ball.  They did show some versatility in running it 40 times for 177 yards against the Colts in the AFC Championship.

This will be the 6th Super Bowl that the Patriots will have played in during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.  Four of the five previously have been low-scoring despite New England coming in with one of the best offenses in the league in each.  They lost to the Giants 21-17 in the 2012 Super Bowl, lost to the Giants 17-14 in 2008, beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005, beat the Panthers 32-29 in 2004, and beat the Rams 20-17 in 2002. 

As you can see, four of their last five Super Bowls have seen 45 or fewer combined points, and three of those with 38 or fewer.  In 2007, New England scored 36.8 points per game during the regular season, then 14 points in the Super Bowl. In 2011, New England scored 32.1 points per game during the regular season, then 17 points in the Super Bowl.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Patriots last five Super Bowls.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bill Belichick is 25-11 to the UNDER In road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in all games he has coached since 1992.  Belichick is 22-8 to the UNDER versus good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots & Seahawks.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

15* Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle PK

Seattle (14-4) got off to a shaky 3-3 start this season. It kicked it into high gear thereafter, going 11-1 in its final 12 games to reach the Super Bowl. It has been really impressive down the stretch, going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with seven of those victories coming by double-digits.

The Seahawks have been an absolute cash cow at the pay window because of how they have been blowing out the opposition. They have won their last eight games by an average of 14.4 points per game. They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 17 points or fewer, including five of those to a touchdown or less. Four of the eight opponents didn’t even score a touchdown against Seattle.

As you may know, the Seahawks have the league’s top-ranked defense in scoring (16.3 points/game) and total (274.4 yards/game) defense. However, they also put up solid numbers on offense at 25.2 points and 375.4 yards per game. So, they are outgaining their opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.

Looking at statistics alone, there’s no question that the Seahawks are the superior team. The Patriots are only outgaining their opponents by an average of 29.0 yards per game. They are averaging 370.3 yards per game offensively and giving up 341.3 yards per game defensively. While both numbers are solid, they are nothing compared to what the Seahawks have done this year statistically, especially here of late.

New England has to be feeling a little guilty about its use of 11 deflated footballs in the AFC Championship Game. These Patriots players may already know that if they win the Super Bowl, it will be tainted to a degree. That’s a sick feeling coming into the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Seahawks must feel like they cannot lose after what they did to come back and beat Green Bay in the NFC Championship. From a mental perspective, the Seahawks have an edge there as well.

Speaking of that win over Green Bay, it was by far the worst game the Seahawks have played in quite some time, and they still found a way to win.  They committed five turnovers and tried to give the game away to the Packers, and they couldn't even take it.  There's no chance that the Seahawks are that sloppy with the football again in the Super Bowl. 

Look for Russell Wilson to learn from his mistakes, and for the Seahawks to not be so pass-happy in this game when they know they have a huge edge in running the football.  They rank 1st in the league in rushing (170 YPG, 5.2 YPC), and you'll see a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch and Wilson on the ground in this one.  Also, it's worth mentioning that Wilson is a perfect 10-0 in his career against opposing quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl.  He is a real gamer and doesn't get enough credit.

Seattle is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games overall. New England is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 playoff games. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. New England is 0-4 ATS in its last four Super Bowl appearances.  Take the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX Sunday.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

20* Colts/Pats AFC Championship No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7

There is going to be a lot made of the Patriots blowing out the Colts in their recent meetings leading up to this game.  They have won five straight meetings with the Colts, including their last three by 22, 21 and 35 points, respectively.  That includes a 42-20 road win over Indianapolis back on November 16th of this year.  Well, that was a 28-20 game with less than nine minutes remaining before the Patriots tacked on two late touchdowns to pull away.

These aren't the same Colts that have been pushovers against the Patriots in years' past.  They were very fortunate to make the playoffs the previous two years under Andrew Luck as they simply were fortunate in close games to overcome their lack of dominant statistics.  However, now they have the statistics to match their brilliant 13-5 record this year, and there's no denying that they belong in the AFC Championship.

Indeed, Indianapolis ranked 3rd in the league in yardage differential this season.  It outgained teams by an average of 63.9 yards per game this year.  Only the Seahawks and Broncos were better.  The Patriots, on the other hand, haven't been near as dominant as their 13-4 record would suggest.  They rank just 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game.

New England has shown the last three weeks that is is extremely vulnerable.  It has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It only won 17-16 at the New York Jets as 9.5-point favorites in Week 16.  It lost at home to Buffalo 9-17 despite being 4.5-point favorites in Week 17.  Then, last week, the Patriots needed to erase two 14-point deficits to come from behind to beat the Ravens 35-31 as 7-point home favorites.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, comes into this game playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won 27-10 at Tennessee in Week 17 as 7-point favorites in a game where it could have rested its starters, but elected not to to try and gain some momentum coming into the playoffs.  That has proven to be a great move by head coach Chuck Pagano.

The Colts have been mighty impressive in their two playoff games.  They beat the Bengals 26-10 at home as 3.5-points favorites, outgaining them 482-254 for the game, or by 228 total yards.  Then, last week, they went into Denver and came away with a 24-13 victory as 9.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Broncos 364-288 for the game, or by 76 total yards.

Indianapolis ranked 3rd in the league in total offense during the regular season, averaging 406.6 yards per game.  Andrew Luck is on the verge of becoming the best quarterback in the NFL.  He completed 61.7% of his passes for 4,761 yards with 40 touchdowns and 16 picks during the regular season.  Luck went 31 of 44 for 376 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, and then 27 of 43 for 265 yards with two touchdowns and two picks against the Broncos in the playoffs.

While Luck and the offense are the biggest reason the Colts are one of the best teams in the NFL, the improvement by the defense this season is a close second.  The Colts were a competent defense during the regular season, giving up just 342.7 yards per game to rank 11th in total defense.  They have been at their best here of late, giving up an average of 244.7 yards per game in their last three games overall. 

This stop unit is fully capable of slowing down the Patriots, who have only averaged 304.3 yards per game in their last three games.  What I really like about the Colts is their pass defense, which will be huge in this game against a Patriots team that only rushes for 102 yards per game but throws for 266.  Indianapolis has allowed a ridiculously-low 155.5 passing yards per game in its last six games overall.

Pagano is 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games as the coach of Indianapolis.  Bill Belichick is 2-9 ATS as a No. 1 seed in the playoffs as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in his last game as the coach of the Patriots.  New England is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 playoff games.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Championship Games.  Indianapolis is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC foes.  Take the Colts in the AFC Championship Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks continued their dominant play with a 31-17 win over the Carolina Panthers in the Divisional Round.  They have now gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by double-digits, and by an average of 15.6 points per game.  They are the best team in the National Football League, period.  That shows up in the numbers as well.

The Seahawks ranked 1st in the league in yardage differential during the regular season.  They outgained teams by a whopping 108.7 yards per game.  Their offense was better than it got credit for, ranking 9th in the NFL at 375.8 yards per game.  Their defense was once again the best in the NFL, giving up league lows of 15.9 points and 267.1 yards per game.  In fact, they were the only defense to allow less than 300 yards per game this season.

We're looking at what might be the best defense in NFL history.  The Seahawks have given up a total of 56 points in their last seven games overall for an average of just 8.0 points per game.  They have held five of those seven opponents to 7 points or fewer.  They have the best secondary in the NFL as well, one that gives up just 185.6 passing yards per game.

That's going to be huge against the Green Bay Packers, who rely heavily on throwing the football to move it on offense.  Well, Aaron Rodgers is playing with a torn calf muscle, and he was clearly hobbled against the Cowboys last week.  He only practiced one day in two weeks leading up to that game, and he didn't run until pregame warm-ups. 

Rodgers not having his mobility gives the Packers no chance of defeating the Seahawks this week, or even hanging with them.  Seattle has a much better pass rush than Dallas did.  Rodgers did put up good numbers against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys were one of the most overrated defenses in the league this season.  Seattle is not overrated as it has no weaknesses.

Green Bay has just been a mediocre road team this year.  It is 9-0 at home, but just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road where it is actually getting outscored by an average of 2.1 points per game.  All four of its road losses came by 8 points or more as well.  It lost at Seattle 16-36, at Detroit 7-19, at New Orleans 23-44, and at Buffalo 13-21.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Green Bay and Seattle in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 8-1 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  As stated before, Seattle won 36-16 at home over Green Bay in the season opener.  This was a complete mismatch as the Seahawks outgained the Packers 398-255 for the game, or by 133 total yards.  Rodgers went 23 of 33 passing for just 189 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss.

The Seahawks rushed for 207 yards in the win over the Packers and should have another big day on the ground in the rematch.  They rank 1st in the league in rushing by a wide margin, averaging 172.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which was 25.5 yards more than second place.  They also average a ridiculous 5.2 yards per carry against teams that only give up 4.2 per carry.

The Packers have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season.  They ranked 23rd against the run during the regular season, and they surrendered 145 yards on the ground to the Cowboys last week.  They give up an average of 121 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season against teams that average 112 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  Marshawn Lynch is licking his chops at another opportunity to face the Packers Sunday.

Seattle is currently on a 25-2 streak in its last 27 home games.  The Seahawks have gone 8-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game.  The 12th man is the real real, and Seattle knew how important it would be to get home-field advantage when it went on its huge run in winning 10 of its last 11 games overall.

I know it's a small factor, but it's also worth noting that the Seahawks have an extra day of rest heading into this game.  They played on Saturday against the Panthers, while the Packers played on Sunday against the Cowboys.  It's certainly an advantage for the Seahawks to get that extra day of rest, especially because they were able to watch the Packers play on Sunday to scout them an extra time.  Also, Rodgers getting one less day to heal is big as well.  He clearly won't be anywhere near 100% for this game.

Seattle is 13-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  Green Bay is 1-8 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 12.6 points per game in this spot.  The Seahawks are 10-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons. 

The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS off five or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  Seattle is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Championship Game No-Brainer on Ohio State +7

While Oregon may be the better team, I just cannot foresee it blowing out Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played their two best games of the year coming into this one as Urban Meyer has his team hitting on all cylinders. They proved that their 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship was no fluke. After outgaining the Badgers by 300 total yards, the Buckeyes really dominated the Crimson Tide in the first round of the four-team playoff.

Alabama did score a late touchdown to get within 42-35, but that was as close as it would get. Statistically, this was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Crimson Tide 537-407 for the game, or by 130 total yards. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries in the win. He now has 450 rushing yards in his last two games and is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and a touchdown with one pick against Alabama as well.

Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone a perfect 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread in its last nine games overall. While that is impressive, it has the betting public quick to back the Ducks again. I believe these teams are much more evenly matched than this 7-point spread would indicate. It should be closer to a pick ‘em in my eyes, which means there is value in backing the dog.

Yes, Oregon beat Florida State handily 59-20, but that game was far from the blowout that the score shows. The Ducks only outgained the Seminoles by 111 total yards in the win. That’s a good margin, but not one that would warrant a 39-point blowout. The Seminoles simply gave the game away in the second half by committing five turnovers with four lost fumbles and an interception.

Florida State racked up 528 total yards on this suspect Oregon defense. The Ducks can score at will, but they clearly have the worse defense in this one. They are allowing an average of 421.9 yards per game on the season. Ohio State only gives up 22.1 points and 333.4 yards per game against teams that average 28.3 points and 396 yards per game, so it has been pretty elite defensively. I look for the Buckeyes to be the team that comes up with the more stops in this one, which will lead to a cover and possibly an outright win.

Ohio State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 188 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Stopping the run will be key because both teams love to run it. Oregon averages 242 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State puts up 262 yards per game on the ground. Oregon gives up 156 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry against teams that average 162 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it has been just mediocre against the run.

I have really been impressed with Ohio State’s ability to stop the run here of late against some very good rushing teams. The Buckeyes have held Michigan, Wisconsin and Alabama to a combined 120.7 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They limited Melvin Gordon and the Badgers to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries, Michigan to 121 yards on 38 carries, and Alabama to 170 yards on 34 carries.

Urban Meyer is 21-5 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Meyer is 15-4 ATS versus excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in all games he has coached. Ohio State is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 vs. excellent rushing teams that average at least 230 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  For what it's worth, the Buckeyes are 8-0 all-time against the Ducks.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game Monday.

15* Cowboys/Packers NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +6

This is arguably the most anticipated game of the playoffs this weekend. These are two of the most popular teams in the NFL, and the league is certainly better when both the Cowboys and Packers are good at the same time. Also, the Packers are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, while the Cowboys are 8-0 on the road, so something has to give.

Obviously, the Cowboys going 8-0 on the road is probably the most impressive feat of the entire season in the NFL. They have played their best football away from home this year. They handed Seattle its only home loss of the season back on October 12th when they won 30-23 as 9.5-point underdogs. They won’t be intimidated by having to go into Green Bay to get a win Sunday, that’s for sure.

The Packers did go 8-0 at home this season, but five of those wins came against teams with losing records, and the other three were against New England, Philadelphia and Detroit. Both the Lions and Patriots were able to keep their games close as the Patriots lost by 5, while the Lions lost by 10. I believe the Cowboys are fully capable of keeping this game close as well, which will allow them to cover the 6-point spread.

Yes, Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers and one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it is being overvalued due to Rodgers’ play at home. The real key to this game is going to be defense. The Packers have not been the best defensive team in the league this year, and they have struggled against the run for most of the season. Remember, they were knocked out of the playoffs by the 49ers each of the last two seasons as San Francisco ran wild on them.

I believe that could be the case again in this game. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the league in rushing at 147.1 yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the superb play of DeMarco Murray and arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. A big reason why I took the Lions +7 last week was because they were elite against the run. They ranked No. 1 in the league in run defense at under 70 yards per game, so I expected them to slow down Murray, which is precisely what they did. They nearly pulled off the upset as a result.

Green Bay won’t be able to stop Murray. The Packers allowed 108 or more rushing yards in 12 of their 16 games this season. They rank 23rd in the league against the run, surrendering an average of 119.9 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. The Cowboys are going to be able to move the football at will on the ground, which will open things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Green Bay gives up 357.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Dallas has been superb against the run and will make Green Bay one-dimensional. The Cowboys have allowed 90 or fewer yards rushing in six of their last eight games overall. They have allowed an average of 61.0 rushing yards per game in their last five games to boot. Stopping Eddie Lacy will be key for them because Rodgers isn’t nearly as effective when he has no running game to support him.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Green Bay is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 7.0 or more yards per attempt. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days of rest this season. The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in their previous game. Jason Garrett is 20-9 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Dallas, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

25* NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +11

The Seattle Seahawks come into the playoffs overvalued due to going 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall. They now find themselves as double-digit favorites over the Carolina Panthers, which I simply believe is too much. I look for the Panthers to keep this game close from start to finish, just as they have in several recent meetings with the Seahawks.

Yes, it’s bad that a team with a losing record is allowed to make the playoffs. The Panthers even made it despite having a six-game losing streak at one point in the season. They looked lost for much of the year, but here of late, they have much more resembled the team that went 12-4 last year and earned a first-round bye.

Indeed, the Panthers have won five straight games coming in. That includes blowout road wins at New Orleans 41-10 and at Atlanta 34-3, which are no small feats. Even their 27-16 win over the Cardinals last week was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cardinals by 308 yards and held them to just 78 total yards for the entire game.

Carolina’s run of great play extends back even further. In fact, it has outgained each of its last seven opponents, including five of them by 105 or more total yards. The Panthers have outgained their last seven foes by a total of 977 total yards, or by an average of 139.6 yards per game. Now that’s domination that really shows this team is no pushover.

Cam Newton has returned healthy from injury and has helped the Panthers rush for at least 100 yards in 12 straight games. In fact, the Panthers have averaged 190.4 rushing yards per game in their last five games overall. Jonathan Stewart has spearheaded the rushing attack, averaging 104.8 yards per game himself over these five contests.

The improvement the Panthers have made defensively here of late has been the biggest difference, though. Carolina has allowed 17 or fewer points in five straight games while giving up an average of 11.8 points per game during this stretch. It has also given up just 233.5 yards per game in its last six games overall. These numbers are elite defensively, and they resemble the numbers this defense put up all of last season.

The teams that have given Seattle trouble are ones with a defense and a running game. Seattle is still good against the run, but its biggest strength is against the pass. Controlling the ball with the running game and stopping the Seahawks’ offense is something the Panthers have mastered in recent meetings with them.

The Seahawks have won four straight over the Panthers, but the last three have all gone right down to the wire in ugly, low-scoring defensive battles. The Seahawks won 16-12 in 2012, 12-7 in 2013, and 13-9 in 2014. As you can see, the Panthers held them to 16 or fewer points in all three meetings. I believe they can do that again with the way they are playing defensively, which means they only need a score or two to cover this massive 11-point spread.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Carolina is 11-3 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Panthers have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games. Stopping Marshawn Lynch and the running game will be huge in this one, too.  Bet the Panthers Saturday.

15* Ravens/Patriots AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +7

While the Baltimore Ravens entered the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, I don’t believe they are only the sixth-best team in the conference. They are right up there with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos as the top teams in the AFC. They belong in the final four of this conference, and they went out and proved that with a resounding 30-17 win at Pittsburgh last week.

I view the Patriots as only slightly a better team than the Ravens on a neutral field. So, give the Patriots 3-4 points for home-field advantage, and this line should be somewhere in the neighborhood of Patriots -4. I believe we are getting some value in backing the Ravens catching a full touchdown in this game as a result. I just can’t foresee New England winning this game by two scores or more.

The numbers would indicate that these teams are pretty much equals, though the Ravens actually have a slight edge. The Ravens rank 8th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 28.0 yards per game. The Patriots are only 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game. Statistically, the Patriots aren’t as dominant as their 12-4 record would indicate.

I actually believe New England could have a bit of rust coming into this game. It didn’t go all out against Buffalo in Week 17 as it rested several starters. So, it has essentially had three weeks off in between its last meaningful game and this one. The Patriots also earned the No. 1 seed back in 2012-13, only to get upset at home by the Ravens 28-13 as 8-point favorites in the Divisional Round.

When Baltimore won the Super Bowl two years ago, it had to go on the road for the final two games in the AFC as well. This is a team that doesn’t get phased by having to go on the road and win big games as they have been there, done that. Since joining the league in 2008, Joe Flacco’s 10 postseason wins are more than any other quarterback, including the combined win total for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (8). His win in Pittsburgh Saturday was his seventh on the road, which is two more than any other passer in NFL history.

Two of Flacco’s playoff road wins have come in his three career attempts in New England. The Ravens just have a knack for playing the Patriots tough. While New England sports a 5-3 record in its last eight meetings with Baltimore, only one of those five wins came by more than 6 points.  So, Baltimore has only lost once to New England by more than 6 points in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Yes, the Patriots did beat the Ravens 41-7 on the road last year, but that game was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Ravens actually outgained the Patriots 358-300 for the game, but gave it away by committing four turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. The Patriots scored three times in the final 2:05 of the game to pull away.

The Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games.  Baltimore is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five road playoff games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Baltimore.  Take the Ravens Saturday.

15* Lions/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Detroit +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys come into the playoffs way overvalued. They are obviously one of the better teams in the NFL, but asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is too much. That’s why I am siding with the Detroit Lions as underdogs in this one. Dallas is overvalued due to the way it finished the season, while Detroit is undervalued due to its finish.

I really look at these teams as pretty much equals. So, on a neutral field, the line should be set close to a pick ‘em. Give the Cowboys three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be closer to Dallas -3 or -4 at the most. The numbers would also indicate that these teams are equals. It’s just that the betting public loves to back the Cowboys when they are good, so you can get some value by going against them.

Obviously, the public is all over the Cowboys after their strong finish. They went a perfect 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall, making backers a ton of money. However, you have to consider that the Cowboys actually played better on the road than they did at home this year. They were 8-0 on the road compared to 4-4 at home.

Detroit won four of its final five games to finish strong as well, but its 20-30 loss to the Packers is what sticks out to the betting public the most coming into this game. Well, the Packers simply don’t lose at home as they went 8-0 at home this season. The Lions haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 1991 either, so I don’t look at that as a bad loss. That game was actually tied 14-14 in the second half before the Packers pulled away late.

When you look at the numbers, you could argue that the Lions are the better team. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 39.9 yards per game. The Cowboys are a very good team too, but they are 8th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game.

The Lions certainly have the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 17.6 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 300.9 yards per game. The Cowboys allow 22.0 points and 355.1 yards per game to rank 19th in total defense. The Lions allow 5.1 yards per play against teams that average 5.6 yards per play, while the Cowboys give up 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 5.7 yards per play. The YPP stat really tells a lot about how good a defense is.

The only reason the Cowboys haven’t put up worse numbers overall defensively is because their offense possesses the ball for nearly 33 minutes per game, while their defense only plays 27 minutes per contest. That’s because Dallas has a great rushing attack that averages 147 yards per game. Well, no team is better equipped to stop the run than the Lions. They rank 1st in the league in rushing defense, giving up just 69.3 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

There has been some huge news come out of Detroit as of this writing. Ndamukong Suh was originally suspended for this game after stepping on Aaron Rodgers. Well, he appealed that suspension and won, which means that he will play in this game. There’s no denying that Suh is one of the dirtiest players in the game, but he is also one of the best defensive tackles in the league. His presence on the field will be huge in stopping DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys.

Dallas is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. The Cowboys are 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight playoff games. The Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 January games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Take the Lions Sunday.

Note - If you have the option, I would recommend buying the Lions to +7.  As of this publishing, the Lions are at +6.5 and +7 in most places.  I didn't have the option of putting the pick in at +7, so I went with the +7.5 option at -125.  My actual bet is on the Lions +7 (-115).  I'd still recommend the Lions at +6.5 if you don't have the option to buy points.

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

15* ECU/Florida Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on East Carolina +7

The East Carolina Pirates are chomping at the bit at an opportunity to play a team from the SEC in the Birmingham Bowl and to prove that they are the real deal, just as they have against a few other Power 5 conference teams throughout the regular season. The Gators, meanwhile, are not happy to be here as they had much higher expectations coming into the year.

Due to underachieving for a second consecutive season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp was fired. The interim head coach will be defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will also be out of a job at season’s end. That’s because new head coach Jim McElwain has already hired Mississippi State’s Geoff Collins to replace Durkin as defensive coordinator next season. So, the Gators are really in a state of limbo here, and I don’t expect them to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to put away ECU by more than a touchdown.

The Gators face an East Carolina offense that can put up points in bunches. The Pirates rank 5th in the FBS with 532.8 yards per game and tied for 14th with an average of 37.2 points. Their passing game was second with 367.3 yards per game. They didn’t just put up these numbers against weak competition, either.

In three consecutive matchups against Power 5 conference programs South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, ECU averaged 581.3 yards and 40.3 points. It lost 33-23 at then-No. 21 South Carolina before a 28-21 win at then-No. 17 Virginia Tech and a 70-41 home blowout of North Carolina. Florida suffered a 23-20 overtime home loss to South Carolina on November 15 for the team’s only common opponent.

Shane Carden may be the most underrated quarterback in the entire country. He is completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,309 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, while also rushing for six scores on the season. The Pirates have three very good receivers in Justin Hardy (110 receptions, 1,334 yards, 9 TD), Cam Worthy (47, 886, 3 TD) and Isaiah Jones (75, 766, 5 TD) for Carden to get the ball to. Breon Allen (869 yards, 6.5/carry) and Chris Hairston (455 yards, 7.3/carry) are explosive in the running game as well.

Yes, the Gators have one of the better defenses in the country, but their offense is the reason why they aren’t going to put away the Pirates by a touchdown or more. Florida failed to crack 300 yards in five of 11 games this season. It ranked 11th in the SEC in total offense (370.2 yards/game), and its 12th-ranked passing attack (180.7 yards/game) never built any momentum in league play.

A big reason why the Pirates are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 163 yards per game this season is because they have actually been respectable defensively as well. They are giving up just 25.7 points per game and 369.7 yards per game this season. They did play the easier schedule than Florida, but what they did against those three Power 5 teams shows that they can play with anyone.

East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three years. They are coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. ECU is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

20* Iowa/Tennessee TaxSlayer Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) are extremely excited to be playing in this bowl game after going 5-7 each of the last three years and missing out. This will be their first bowl game since 2010, and they’ll be looking for their first win in a bowl since 2007. There’s no question that the Vols are going to be highly motivated because of it, and I look for them to get that elusive bowl win over Iowa this year.

Not many teams could benefit from bowl practice as much as this Tennessee squad. Head coach Butch Jones has put together two of the top recruiting classes in the country in his two years here, and this is still a very young team. In fact, the Vols had to break in five new starters along the offensive line, and four new starters along the defensive line this year. They did a tremendous job of getting to a bowl game with all of this youth.

What makes this bowl berth even more impressive is the fact that Tennessee played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Just playing in the SEC makes the schedule tough, but the Vols also had to play three more bowl teams out of conference. They beat Utah State 38-7 and Arkansas State 34-19, but lost at Oklahoma 10-34. They also drew two of the best teams from the SEC West in Alabama and Ole Miss.

To no surprise, this young Tennessee team got better as the season went on. In fact, it was sitting at 3-5 needing three wins in its final four games to get to a bowl, and that’s precisely what it did. The Vols beat South Carolina 45-42 on the road, Kentucky 50-16 at home, and Vanderbilt 24-17 on the road in the season finale to get in. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-29 to SEC East champ Missouri.

The Vols averaged 35 points per game over their final four games of the season. Their offense really took off once Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley at quarterback with five games to go. He even played well in a 20-34 home loss to Alabama, and then proceeded to step up his game the rest of the way. Dobbs finished the season completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 393 yards and six scores in just five games. It’s his dual-threat ability that has really helped out this offense.

Tennessee has also been very good on the other side of the football. It is giving up just 23.9 points, 359.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 30.1 points, 400 yards per game and 5.8 per play. So, the Vols are holding their opponents to 6.2 points, 40 yards and 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season. This is the sign of a really good defense and one that will be able to limit a weak Iowa offense.

The Hawkeyes had a schedule that was set up to make a run at the Big Ten West division title this season. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the Big Ten East, and they got to play both Maryland and Indiana from that division. They also got to host fellow West contenders Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Well, they managed to go just 4-4 within the Big Ten despite playing such a soft schedule.

Iowa went 1-4 against bowl teams this season, while Tennessee went 3-6 against bowl teams, which just shows you how much more difficult of a schedule the Volunteers played this year. Iowa lost to Nebraska (34-37) and Wisconsin (24-26) at home, while also falling at Minnesota (14-51) and at Maryland (31-38) on the road. Its only win over a bowl team was a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s six losses to bowl teams came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri. The Vols lost three of those six games by a combined 12 points.

Tennessee is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Vols are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games off two more more consecutive ATS losses. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Bet Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl Friday.

15* Ohio State/Alabama New Year's Day BAILOUT on Alabama -8.5

Alabama went through a gauntlet of a schedule this season to win the SEC in what is easily the best conference in the country. As a result, it is certainly battle-tested, and I would argue that it has played three to four teams this year that are better than Ohio State. Meanwhile, this will be by far the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced all season.

I personally do not believe the Buckeyes are one of the best four teams in the country. They simply benefited from playing a cake schedule, and Vegas seems to agree. There were 10 teams from the Big Ten that made bowl games this year, and all 10 of them are underdogs. That just goes to show you what Vegas thinks of the Big Ten this year. Ohio State may have won the conference, but that’s nothing compared to Alabama winning the SEC.

What has impressed me about Alabama the most this year is that it has had one of its best offenses in school history. It averages 37.1 points and 488.4 yards per game this season. Freshman Blake Sims has played like a seasoned veteran. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards and six scores.

If you look past Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, you find that its defense was not playing well at all in the four games previous. It had given up at least 24 points in four straight games, and an average of 28.3 points per game during this stretch. It has given up 24 or more points a whopping eight times this year in 13 games. There’s no question the Crimson Tide are going to have their way with this Ohio State defense.

I would argue that Alabama has the best defense in the country when you factor in strength of schedule. It ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game while ranking 11th in total defense at 312.1 yards per game. It is 2nd against the run at 88.4 yards per game and 2.8 per carry allowed. Alabama’s ability to stop the run is going to be the biggest reason as to why it wins and covers.

Ohio State relies very heavily on its rushing attack as it runs the ball 45 times per game for 261 yards compared to 27 pass attempts per game. It has to be an even more run-heavy team now that J.T. Barrett is out for this bowl game with an injury. Yes, backup Cardale Jones played well against Wisconsin, but he had the element of surprise with the Badgers. The Crimson Tide now have game tape on him and will certainly know what to expect. Jones won’t be nearly as effective against the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.

The Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Alabama is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games following three or more consecutive wins. The Crimson Tide are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Roll with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8

There are many that believe the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) are not one of the best four teams in the country. They have won so many close games this season, seven by six points or less in fact, so their argument does have some weight. However, this team has played a much tougher schedule than they did a year ago, and I’m not so sure that this team isn’t as good as the one that won the national title last year.

There is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win games. Florida State has now won a whopping 29 straight games dating back over the past three seasons. Now, the Seminoles find themselves in the role of the underdog for the first time in the last two years. They are getting no respect from the books in this game, and Jimbo Fisher will be using this as serious motivation for his players. While they may ultimately have their winning streak come to an end against the Ducks, I don’t believe it will be by 9 points or more, which is what it would take for Oregon to cover this ridiculous 8-point spread.

Oregon comes in way overvalued due to not only winning eight straight games, but also covering the spread in eight straight. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Ducks. This has forced oddsmakers to set the line for this game higher than it should be. It’s usually a wise move to fade the public, and that’s precisely what I’ll recommend doing in this game Thursday.

Florida State, on the other hand, actually comes in undervalued despite its perfect 13-0 record this year. That’s because it has gone just 3-10 ATS in all games. It simply created expectations for itself after winning the national title that it could not live up to this year. The Seminoles have been favored in every game they have played this year, and most of the time by too many points. That’s why there has been so much value in going against them up to this point. That fade value is now all gone, and it’s time to jump back on them.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense that puts up 34.8 points, 434.8 yards and 6.4 yards per play against opponents that allow just 25.3 points, 360 yards and 5.3 per play. So, they are scoring 10 points per game and averaging 75 yards per game more than their opponents allow on the season. Jameis Winston just finds a way to get it done when the game is in the balance, and my money is on him to do so on the biggest of stages again in this one.

Oregon has put up some gaudy numbers offensively this year. However, you have to factor in who they have played before you get too excited about this offense. They have played defenses that allow 31.7 points and 432 yards per game on the season. That is a much softer slate than what the Seminoles have been up against this year. I would only give the Ducks a slight edge on offense.

Defensively, the edge has to go to the Seminoles, who are giving up 23.0 points and 378.3 yards per game. Oregon allows 413.8 yards per game this season as its stop unit simply has not been that good. I believe one of the biggest reasons the Seminoles have a chance to win this game is their run defense, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry. Unlike most other teams the Ducks face, the Seminoles actually have the athleticism and speed defensively to match up with Oregon’s offense.

Florida State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in. The Seminoles are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. It has won six straight bowl games coming in and has not lost a bowl game by double-digits since 2003.  Bet Florida State in the Rose Bowl Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/Auburn Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -6.5

I was one of the biggest Auburn haters coming into the season that you will find. They were extremely fortunate to win the SEC and make it to the national title game last year as they won a ridiculous amount of close games along the way and got every break to go in their favor. Their season win total was set at 9.5 and it was one of my favorite ‘under’ bets coming into the year.

I wasn’t so sure I was going to cash that bet until the Tigers lost three of their final four games to close out the season. It was also very profitable to fade this team all year against the spread as they wound up with just a 4-8 ATS record. So, my instinct was correct on them being overvalued this season. However, I now am reversing roles and looking to back them as they are undervalued coming into the bowl game.

Indeed, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven. They have burned the betting public time and time again, and now the public wants nothing to do with them. When this happens, you can find a lot of value in backing these teams, and I believe that to be the case in this game. There’s no way Auburn should be laying less than a touchdown to Wisconsin.

For starters, the Tigers play in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West. Had they played in any other division in America, they would have probably won that division. There are no easy outs in the SEC West, and Auburn found that out the hard way, losing four games to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

I actually faded Auburn in the Alabama game thinking that the Tigers were going to get rolled. While the Crimson Tide did end up covering in an 11-point home win as 10-point favorites, I never felt like they deserved to cover as they trailed for most of the game. Auburn actually racked up 630 total yards on that Alabama defense, outgaining the Crimson Tide by 91 total yards in the game. It was that performance that makes me know that the Tigers are still a very good team and one of the best in the country.

Wisconsin beat up on a very easy schedule this season coming from the Big Ten, which is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. It managed to avoid BOTH Ohio State and Michigan State from the other division, and that fact alone made it the favorites to win its division. It wasn’t easy as the Badgers had to beat Minnesota 34-24 at home in the season finale to get into the championship game.

It was in that championship game that the Badgers’ true colors showed. They were outplayed in every phase of the game by Ohio State, losing that game 59-0 while getting outgained by 300 total yards. The Badgers managed just 258 yards and gave up 558 yards. I believe that Auburn is a better team than Ohio State, and while I don’t expect the Tigers to win this game by 59, I do expect them to win by a touchdown or more with relative ease.

Auburn was very good on both sides of the football this year. It put up 35.8 points, 489.6 yards per game and 6.7 per play against teams that only gave up 23.5 points, 371 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Tigers gave up 26.1 points, 389.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that averaged 31.4 points, 417 yards per game and 5.9 per play.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s numbers look good on paper, but when you factor in the strength of opponents played, they no longer look that great. They played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their 10 wins coming against the likes of Western Illinois, Bowling Green, South Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Not one of those teams is near the caliber of two of the three teams they lost to in LSU and Ohio State.  It also lost to Northwestern 14-20.

Auburn is 9-1 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in its last game over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 15.5 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their last game. They are winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Take Auburn in the Outback Bowl Thursday.

20* GA Tech/Mississippi State New Year's Eve No-Brainer on Mississippi State -6.5

I would be willing to argue that the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) are one of the top four teams in the country. Obviously, with two losses, they weren’t going to get into the four-team playoff over conference champions with one or fewer losses. However, finishing in second place in the toughest division in the country is no small feat. The Bulldogs had their chances to make the playoff after a 9-0 start, but they lost two of their final three games of the season.

I believe losing two of their final three games has the Bulldogs actually undervalued coming into this game. The betting public has simply forgotten about them. But when you look at those losses, you find that they are not bad at all. They only lost 20-25 at Alabama as 10-point underdogs, and 17-31 at Ole Miss as 2.5-point favorites. They actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 93 yards on the road, so that there shows that they can play with what everyone perceives as the best team in the country. Had either of those games against Alabama and Ole Miss been played in Starkville, they likely would have been different outcomes.

Mississippi State went 5-2 against bowl teams this season. It beat LSU (34-29) and South Alabama (35-3) on the road, while also topping Texas A&M (38-23), Auburn (38-23) and Arkansas (17-10) at home. This was obviously one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country, and I’d have to say that the Bulldogs handled themselves pretty well. They are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game because it seems like the national media has simply forgotten about them.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued. It has gone 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. It beat Georgia 30-24 on the road in the final week of the regular season. Well, the Bulldogs were deflated coming into that game after falling short of making the SEC Championship Game with Missouri’s win over Arkansas in the season finale. They also only lost 35-37 to Florida State after scoring a touchdown with only seconds remaining to make that score appear closer than it really was.

Mississippi State’s offense was nothing short of elite this season. It put up 37.2 points, 506.2 yards per game and 6.6 per play to rank 9th in the country in total offense. Its opposing defenses only gave up 27.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season. So, it outscored its opposing defenses’ season averages by 10 points per game, and outgained them by 108 yards per game. Georgia Tech’s defense allows 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 yards per play.

However, the reason I really love this matchup for the Bulldogs is their defense. They struggled against the pass this season, but they were elite against the run. The Bulldogs only allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. They give up 285 passing yards per game, but that’s not going to come into play here because Georgia Tech only averages 135 passing yards per game.

Plus, the Yellow Jackets are expected to be without leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (35 receptions, 715 yards, 7 TD), who accounted for roughly half of their receiving totals on the year. They average 334 rushing yards per game this season in their tripe-option. Well, give the Bulldogs over a month to prepare for it, and their dominant run defense will be up to the task.

Bowl games are a huge disadvantage for triple-option teams. Georgia Tech lost to another SEC team in Ole Miss 17-25 in the Music City Bowl last year. They were held to 298 total yards and gave up 477 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 179 yards in the loss. They only mustered 151 rushing yards on 49 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry against the Rebels last year.

The ACC has not shown very well in bowl games this postseason.  They are 3-5 in bowl games with their only wins coming from VA Tech over Cincinnati, NC State over UCF, and Clemson over Oklahoma.  Both Cincinnati and UCF play in the weak AAC, while Oklahoma did not show up against Clemson.  

What stands out to me is that the ACC is 0-2 against SEC teams as Miami lost to South Carolina 21-24, while Louisville was blown out by Georgia 37-14 last night.  Also, the SEC has been dominant in bowl games this year, going 4-1 up to this points.  This conference is just on another level than the rest, and that will be apparent in this game as well.

Dan Mullen is 11-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average at least 5.25 yards per carry as the coach of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  This trend just goes to show how much they struggle in bowl games because they run a triple-option, which is so easy to prepare for when you have extra time.  Bet Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +7.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the bowl season way undervalued. That’s because they completely fell apart down the stretch after having their national title hopes crushed in a 27-31 loss at Florida State following their 6-0 start. The referees overturned what would have been a game-winning touchdown for the Fighting Irish in the closing seconds, and this team never really recovered from that moment-on.

They went on to beat Navy in a close one 49-39, but then lost each of their final four games to close out the season. They lost 31-55 at Arizona State, 40-43 to Northwestern, 28-31 to Louisville and 14-49 to USC. Obviously, the betting public sees these results and will be quick to fade the Fighting Irish in the bowl game. That has created a ton of line value for us to back them catching a full touchdown, and more in some places, against LSU.

Without question, Notre Dame (7-5) is still one of the most talented teams in the country. It simply self-destructed down the stretch in committing 12 turnovers in its final four games. The collapse was somewhat predictable after that loss to Florida State. You can bet that veteran quarterback Everett Golson is going to take it upon himself to get this team back up off the mat and to put forth the kind of performance that his talent warrants in the bowl game.

Also, I love Brian Kelly as a head coach for a bowl, because he is one of the best motivators in the country. Kelly will be pulling out all the stops on his players to try and get them ready to put their best foot forward against LSU. This is one final chance for the Irish to erase the sour taste out of their mouths from the four-game losing streak to close out the season. If they don’t, these players know it’s going to be a long offseason.

I certainly have to question the motivation of these LSU players coming into this bowl game. They are used to playing in big-time bowl games year in and year out, and they certainly won’t be all that excited to be playing in the Music City Bowl because of it. This is a team that had won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons. Their No. 23 ranking is their lowest heading into the bowl season that I can remember since Les Miles took over.

LSU (8-4) did have a propensity of playing in close games against most of its top competition this season. It had six games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Those six include wins over Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17), as well as losses to Alabama (13-20) and Mississippi State (29-34).  So, the Tigers went a fortunate 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less.

The reason the Tigers play in so many close games is because they have a solid defense that can keep them in games, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers are putting up just 27.6 points, 383.4 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that allow 26.4 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play. You can tell from these numbers that the Tigers are no more than an average offense.

There’s no question that the Fighting Irish have a huge edge on that side of the ball. They are scoring 33.0 points per game, averaging 444.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 26.0 points, 379 yards and 5.3 per play. Aside from the turnovers, Golson has really had a fine season. He is completing 60.1% of his passes for 3,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also rushing for 280 yards and eight scores.

I’ll gladly back Golson over LSU sophomore Anthony Jennings in this one. The Tigers have struggled at the quarterback position all season, and I would argue that Jennings is a worse starter than Brandon Harris, who had completed 55.6% of his passes for 452 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings is only completing 48.8% of his passes for 1,460 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven picks. He is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt compared to Harris’ 10.0 per attempt. Also, Jennings has rushed for only 284 yards while averaging 2.8 per carry without a touchdown.

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games when playing against a good team that wins between 60% and 75% of its games. LSU is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Bet Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl Tuesday.

Note - The above is my original analysis. I am writing this note on the morning of December 30th.  I just wanted to let you know that I still recommend Notre Dame +7.5 even though there is news that has come out recently that Golson will split time with Malik Zaire at QB in the bowl game.  I believe Brian Kelly made these plans just to keep things competitive in practice during this long bowl break.  It will be better for the team in the long haul.  It also gives LSU a lot more to prepare for, which is good strategy  by Kelly.  I still expect Golson to play most of this game.

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

20* Bengals/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3.5

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this one. The Steelers have won three in a row, while the Bengals have won five of their last six. However, I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team and I look for them to put away the Bengals by four or more points Sunday night to get the cover.

Pittsburgh has really been on a mission this season. It was coming off two straight 8-8 campaigns where it fell short of the playoffs, but it has been determined to make the playoffs this year. Now that it has clinched a playoff spot, it wants more considering Cincinnati has taken over this division in recent years. This is the Steelers’ chance to prove that they are still the kings of the AFC North, and they get to do so at home, which is a huge advantage for them.

What Pittsburgh has done the last three weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. It has taken on three playoff contenders, and it has beaten them all by a touchdown or more. It started with a 42-21 win at Cincinnati on December 7th. The Steelers went on the road the next week and beat the Falcons 27-20. Then, last week, their No. 1 red zone defense came up huge as they limited the Chiefs to four field goals in a 20-12 home win.

Let’s take a look back at that 42-21 win by the Steelers over the Bengals. That game was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals by 135 total yards for the game. Their offense racked up 543 total yards in the win. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns.

That was one of many high-octane offensive performances from the Steelers this season. They are putting up 27.3 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 414.5 yards per game. Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 4,635 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bell has rushed for 1,341 yards and eight scores, while also catching 77 balls for 774 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bengals rely heavily on the run to move the football, averaging 135 rushing yards per game.  Well, the Steelers held them to just 86 yards on 21 carries in their first meeting of 2014.  The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 99.3 yards per game on the season, making this an excellent matchup for them.  Andy Dalton is going to have to try and beat them, and I don't believe he's capable of doing it.

While the Bengals have the better record than the Steelers at 10-4-1 compared to 10-5, there’s no question that when you look at the numbers, you find that the Steelers are the better team.  That will show up on the field again Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 60.9 yards per game. Cincinnati ranks just 20th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 11.5 yards per game.

Keep in mind that the Bengals will be working on a short week since they played the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 16. That’s another advantage the Steelers have coming into this one.  Also, Andy Dalton has been battling the flu all week and has missed practice time as a result.  The flu has also kept tight end Jermaine Gresham and defensive backs Terence Newman and Reggie Nelson out of practice.  All four guys are expected to play, but missing practice time on a short week like this is big, especially for Dalton.

Plays against road teams (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five years.

The Steelers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Rams +13

This is a massive number and if you are going to play this game, you certainly should be siding with the Rams and the 13 points. Yes, the Seahawks are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the No. 1 seed, but that’s also the reason they are laying so many points. Oddsmakers tend to overvalue teams with a lot to play for because the know the betting public tends to back these teams.

The St. Louis Rams would love nothing more than to pull off the upset and to end the Seahawks’ chances of getting home field. With the way they have been playing lately, they certainly are capable of hanging with the Seahawks. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall with wins over the Broncos, Raiders and Redskins. Two of their three losses came by 3 and 6 points to San Diego and Arizona, respectively.

Sure, they lost by 10 to the Giants last week, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game, which is why I was on the Giants +6.5 last week.  It was a hangover spot from their loss to Arizona the previous week, and it was a lookahead spot to this game against Seattle.  Plus, the Giants are playing great football right now having won three straight and having scored 24 or more points in five straight.  So, that 10-point loss is not as bad as it looks when you factor everything in.

Plus, the Rams have already proven they can hang with the Seahawks. They did just that back on October 19th as they pulled off the 28-26 upset at home despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Tre Mason rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to lead the way offensively. The defense held Marshawn Lynch to just 53 rushing yards on 18 carries in the win.

This St. Louis defense has been unreal here of late. It has not allowed a touchdown in three of its past four games overall. It beat Oakland 52-0 at home, Washington 24-0 on the road, and lost to Arizona 6-12 at home while limiting the Cardinals to just four field goals in the loss. I know last week’s performance against the Giants was not good defensively, but again, the Rams were looking ahead to this game.

Seattle is coming off a very gratifying win at Arizona last week by a final of 35-6. That game was for first place in the NFC West, and with the win, the Seahawks now control their own destiny. I know they still have a lot to play for this week, but the Seahawks are also in a potential letdown spot here after that big win over Arizona.

It’s going to be very hard for them to match the intensity they played with in that game, and also difficult to live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming in.  I really like fading teams who are on extended ATS win streaks because almost every time they are overvalued by oddsmakers once these streaks reach four, five games.  The betting public just cannot get enough of the Seahawks right now.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) – revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks are certainly overvalued due to their recent play and the perception that they’ll be out for revenge, and this trend just goes to show how profitable it has been to fade teams in this spot over the last 10 years.

St. Louis is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Rams are 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years. St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry. The Rams are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a double-digit loss. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 following a blowout win by 21 or more points against a division rival.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Eagles. They just had their playoff hopes crushed with a 24-27 upset loss at Washington last week as 7-point favorites. I don’t expect them to show up at all this week after coming to the realization that they won’t be playing in the postseason. However, the Eagles’ poor play extends back over the past three weeks as well, so it wasn’t just that loss to the Redskins that did them in.

Indeed, the Eagles have now lost three straight games coming in. They lost 14-24 at home to Seattle on December 7th in a game what was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. They were outgained by 301 total yards in that loss to the Seahawks. They also lost 27-38 at home to the Cowboys on December 14th and were outgained by 70 yards in that contest as well. Last week’s loss to the Redskins was just the icing on the cake for them.

New York, on the other hand, comes in playing its best football of the season. This is the second straight year that the Giants have finished strong following a slow start. Last year, they opened 0-6 and wound up finishing 7-9. They are doing the same this year as they have won three straight following a seven-game losing streak.

The Giants have outgained four of their last five opponents, and their solid play extends back six weeks. It started with back to back close losses to the 49ers (10-16) and Cowboys (28-31). They also lost to the Jaguars 24-25 on the road after blowing a 21-point lead in that game. They have turned those close losses into blowout victories each of the last three weeks.

The Giants won 36-7 at Tennessee on December 7th while outgaining the Titans by 195 total yards in the win. They topped Washington 24-13 at home on December 14th in another dominant defensive effort. The Giants then went into St. Louis as 6.5-point underdogs last week and came away with a 37-27 victory, outgaining the Rams by 127 total yards.

This New York offense has really hits its stride in the last five games and is hitting on all cylinders now in this new West Coast system. It has scored at least 24 points in five straight, averaging 29.8 points and 389.0 yards per game during this span. It culminated in the 37-point, 514-yard output against the Rams last week. Coming in, the Rams had not allowed a touchdown in three of their four previous games, so that was no small feat.

Odell Beckham Jr. is setting all kind of records for the numbers he has put up in just 11 games. He now has 79 receptions for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns. This guy just cannot be stopped as he has at least six receptions and at least 90 receiving yards in each of his last eight games, including 130-plus yards and a combined six touchdowns over the last three weeks. As a result, Eli Manning has now put up impressive numbers on the season. He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,981 yards and 29 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Philadelphia backers will point to the Eagles’ 27-0 shutout win over the Giants back on October 12th as a reason to back them again in the rematch. Well, not only do the Giants want some serious revenge from that loss, they certainly were not at full strength in that game. Victor Cruz got hurt in the early stages and the offense just couldn’t get going without him. The offense has found a way without Cruz now due to the emergence of Beckham and is hitting on all cylinders.

The Giants should have plenty of success offensively against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 24.9 points and 366.9 yards per game this season. The Eagles hare just 3-4 on the road this year, where they are giving up 36.9 points per game. The Giants are playing really well defensively right now, giving up just 15.7 points per game in their last three, and 306.0 yards per game in their last four.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) – revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (PHILADELPHIA) – off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1983.

New York is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Week 17 games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games. The wheels have fallen off of the Philadelphia bus, and they won’t be coming back on this week.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +5

The Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for, which is why this line is so small. In my opinion, they shouldn’t even be favored over the Bills given the situation. The Patriots have already clinched home-field advantage in the AFC after their win over the Jets last week. They also needed the Broncos to lose to the Bengals, which happened for them. Now, it would be foolish for Bill Belichick to risk the health of his starters as they look ahead toward the postseason.

With nothing on the line in terms of postseason positioning this week, Belichick said he'll "do whatever is best for the team" when it comes to resting some of his regulars. Reports have surfaced that tight end Rob Gronkowski could rest, and it's unclear if receiver Julian Edelman, offensive lineman Dan Connolly or running back LeGarrette Blount will play after each sat out last week with injuries.

"With the (first-round bye), you realize we're going to have a little time to rest up," quarterback Tom Brady said. "We just want to go out and play well and see if we can string together as many good plays as possible."  That sounds like a guy who knows he's only going to be in there for a series or two.

Even if Belichick plays his starters more than I’m expecting, I have no doubt that those players out there on the field could care less about winning this football game. These players are already looking ahead to who they are going to play in the postseason. Belichick will do his preaching about how it will be important to stay sharp, and he’s right, but it’s just so easy to not be sharp knowing that there’s no consequence if you aren’t.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has every reason to be motivated for a win Sunday despite the fact that it was eliminated from the playoffs last week. The Bills can do something that no other Buffalo team has done since 2004, which is finish a season with a winning record. They will also be out for revenge on the Patriots to try and end this six-game losing streak in the series, and a 13-game losing streak in Foxborough. There are so many positives this team could take away from a win Sunday as they look ahead to next season.

"The game means a lot to me. We're going to play the players that we feel give us the best chance to win," Head coach Doug Marrone said. "That's just the way that I'm wired and that's my responsibility to the team. We all have a responsibility to each other and I have to make those decisions each week."

This Buffalo defense is a big reason why I’ll recommend backing them Sunday. They rank 4th in the league in total defense at 315.7 yards per game, and 4th in scoring defense at 18.7 points per game. This stop unit has played at an elite level for most of the season. In two of their last three games, the Bills held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 0-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s no small feat, and it’s a sign that they can slow down this New England offense, too.

Kyle Orton continues to play well for this Buffalo offense. He has gone 6-5 as a starter this season and has been a huge reason for this team’s turnaround. Orton is completing 63.9% of his passes for 2,842 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. He has managed to get Sammy Watkins involved more than the quarterbacks before him. Watkins has 62 receptions for 925 yards and six scores this year, needing 75 more in this game to reach 1,000 as a rookie, which is mighty impressive.

Plays on any team (BUFFALO) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 64-32 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1983. Buffalo is 13-1 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 26.1 to 17.5 in this spot, or by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +6

I was on the Redskins last week in their 27-24 upset win over the Eagles. I’ll be on them again this week as they continue to show tremendous value as 6-point home underdogs to the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys are being overvalued here for a number of reasons, but mainly because they still could earn a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the playoffs if everything breaks their way.

I also look for the Cowboys to have a letdown this week even with a first-round bye at stake. That’s because they are simply happy to be in the postseason after going 8-8 each of the last three seasons and missing the playoffs. They had a chance in Week 17 to get in each of the last three years, but lost in the finale in all three. They obviously would rather have a first-round bye, but the Redskins aren’t just going to lay down for them.

Also, the Cowboys know deep down inside that their chances of getting a first-round bye are slim to none.  They either need both Seattle and Arizona to lose this week to get one.  Or, they need the Packers/Lions game to end in a tie.  Well, the Seahawks are 13-point favorites over the Rams and likely aren't going to lose.  Obviously, the chances of the Packers/Lions game ending in a tie are slim to none.  So, Dallas is essentially locked into the No. 3 seed, and would be wise to rest its starters given the chance knowing it will have to play next week.

Washington has been an excellent team to back against division opponents despite its struggles as a team in recent years. It always shows up to play the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants, and this year has been no exception. In fact, the Redskins are 2-1 against the Eagles and Cowboys this year, with their only loss coming by a final of 34-37 as 4-point road underdogs at Philadelphia back in Week 3.

The Redskins beat the Cowboys 20-17 (OT) on the road back on October 27th. They racked up 409 total yards on the Cowboys even with Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback in the win. They were 9-point underdogs in that game. Well, if you adjust for home-field advantage, they should only be 3-point underdogs in the rematch. Instead, they are 6-point dogs, which is giving up three full points of value while crossing the key numbers of 3, 4 and 6 along the way.

Another reason the Cowboys are overvalued in this game is because they are coming off a blowout win over the Colts last week by a final of 42-7. Well, while that 35-point win looks good, it really wasn’t that impressive when you consider the state of mind the Colts were in. The Colts had just clinched their division the previous week, and they had no shot of earning a first-round bye even if they won out. So, they didn’t show up, and they rested T.Y. Hilton in the loss. I knew they weren’t going to show up, which is why I was on the Cowboys last week.

If you simply looked at the numbers alone and not the records, you’ll find that the Redskins aren’t really that much worse of a team than the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas ranks 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 26.5 yards per game. Washington ranks 16th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 5.7 yards per game. The Redskins have the worst record of all the top 18 teams in yardage differential, and it’s not even close. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are aided in this category by outgaining the lifeless Colts by 148 total yards last week.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough in recent years. Indeed, the Redskins are 3-2 straight up in their last five meetings with the Cowboys, and a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dallas has only beaten Washington by more than 3 points once in the last nine meetings. The underdog has brought home the bacon at an alarming rate in this matchup throughout the years. The dog is 25-8 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

"In order to come out here our last game of the year and compete with Dallas and beat Dallas would mean a lot just to see where we are ending the season on two huge victories against two quality opponents and two archrivals," head coach Jay Gruden said.

Robert Griffin III is also out to prove that he is the future of the franchise at quarterback.  He did a fine job last week in completing 16 of 23 passes for 220 yards with one interception in the win over the Eagles.  Griffin III is still probably the best quarterback for this team, and I like the fact that he'll continue playing motivated football this week.  As will the rest of the Redskins, who simply do not like the Cowboys and will be trying to steal this win from them Sunday.

Plays against road favorites (DALLAS) – an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 9 points or less last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1993. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after covering the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Cowboys are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout win by 28 or more points. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

Both the Broncos and Bengals have a ton to play for right now, so I don’t think motivation will be an issue at all in this game. Denver wants to get at least a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the AFC, while Cincinnati is trying to fend off both Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North Title. So, with motivation being a non-issue, this one will come down to which team is better on the field. There’s no question in my mind that team is the Broncos, and the numbers show it's not even close.

Denver ranks 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 91.3 yards per game. Its offense has remained explosive this season in averaging 29.1 points and 400.7 yards per game. But, the biggest different for this team compared to last year is the defense. The Broncos are only allowing 21.6 points and 309.4 yards per game to rank 4th in the entire NFL in total defense.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. There’s no way they should be in first place in the division right now with the numbers they have put up. They rank 19th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 10.0 yards per game on the season despite their 9-4-1 record. They are one of only two teams in the NFL that ranks 19th or worse in yardage differential that currently has a winning record on the season. The Cardinals are the other, and they are also among the league’s most overrated.

Amazingly, Cincinnati has played just five teams with winning records this season. It is 2-3 in those five games with a couple wins over Baltimore by a combined 10 points. Its the losses that are troubling. The Bengals lost 27-0 to the Colts, 43-17 to the Patriots, and 42-21 to the Steelers. They are getting outscored by an average of 12.8 points per game in their five contests against teams with winning records this year. I believe the Broncos are the best team that they have faced yet.

This is a great matchup for the Broncos’ defense as well. The Bengals are a run-heavy team that averages 130 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Only one team in the league has been better at stopping the run than the Broncos. They rank 2nd in the league against the run in allowing just 71.6 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to less than 100 rushing yards, and nine of their last 11 to 74 or fewer on the ground.

Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 2-9 in prime-time games since 2011, the year Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback. That includes an 0-3 record in nationally televised postseason games, and a 2-6 mark in games played unopposed on Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights.  Dalton has just crumbled on the big stage, and he will again Monday night as he feels the pressure mounting.

Peyton Manning is 8-0 all-time against Cincinnati, including a 3-0 December record that’s highlighted by 10 touchdowns passes and no interceptions. The Broncos are 4-0 in night games this season, most recently winning in Kansas City 29-16.  Manning has proven he can handle the big stage and will put on another show Monday night.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last three seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Bengals have lost their last two home games each by 21 points in a 3-24 loss to the Browns and that 21-42 loss to the Steelers.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* Colts/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Under normal circumstances, I believe this 3.5-point spread would be about perfect for these two teams as I view them as equals. Tack on 3 to 3.5 points to the Cowboys for home-field advantage, and this would be the right line. However, these aren’t normal circumstances, and as a result there is a ton of value in backing the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites here.

Dallas is going to show up fully determined for a win Sunday. It still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot, and if it wins out, it will win the NFC East. It even has a chance for home-field advantage because if it wins out and gets some help, it will win the tiebreaker. That’s why I’m not worried at all about the Cowboys possibly having a letdown following their big win over the Eagles last week.

There is no way in hell you should back the Colts (10-4) with the state they’ll be in mentally. They just clinched the AFC South last week with a win over the Texans. So, they are guaranteed a first-round home game. They have no shot at getting a first-round bye because they trail the Broncos (11-3) and Patriots (11-3) each by one game, and they lost to both of those teams to lose out on the tiebreaker.

So, the Colts would need to win out and have either the Broncos or Patriots lose out to get a first-round bye. They know that the chances of either of those teams losing out are slim to none, so they really can’t improve their playoff positioning. I look for the Colts to come out very flat this week and to be looking at getting everyone healthy going into the playoffs.

T.Y. Hilton is the best playmaker the Colts have. Well, he injured his hamstring last week in the win over the Texans, and he is questionable to play this week. Hilton did not practice Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, which is an indication that he probably won't play.  Reggie Wayne (59 catches, 665 yards) was also held out of Friday's practice and is dealing with multiple elements.

My best guess is that the Colts rest Hilton given the position they’re in, which would be a huge loss for the offense. Hilton has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns this year, nearly double the receptions and yardage total of their second-leading receiver (Coby Fleener, 42 receptions, 682 yards) on the team. Without Hilton, Andrew Luck would be pretty lost.

With the Colts' pretty much stagnant playoff situation in mind, there is plenty of talk about Indianapolis resting injured players or veterans such as wide receiver Reggie Wayne.  "We've talked about a lot of guys," head coach Chuck Pagano said. "He's one of the guys that you could consider but we'll look at him, we'll look at guys that are on the injury list that are dealing with nagging injuries and if it's best for them and best for the team then we'll do obviously what's right in all those cases."

Yes, I realize that DeMarco Murray has a broken hand, but running backs play with broken hands all the time. Murray is listed as questionable, but I fully expect him to play as he has been cleared by doctors, and the decision is up to him. Even if for whatever reason he cannot go, then Joseph Randle is more than a capable backup who can shoulder the load. Also, Tony Romo and the Dallas passing game are good enough to win this game without much of a running game. But again, I expect Murray to play.

Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,188 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. The Cowboys are 10-2 in games that Romo has played the entire 60 minutes without injury. The offense should have their way with an Indianapolis defense that is giving up a whopping 29.2 points and 393.7 yards per game on the road this year.

Indianapolis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game in the season half of the season. Dallas is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 home games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. That includes ugly recent losses to the Steelers (34-51) on the road and the Patriots (20-42) at home.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6.5

The Rams are way overvalued right now because of their back-to-back shutout wins over both Oakland and Washington. They had covered four straight games and found themselves as 6-point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Well, they obviously came up short, losing 6-12 .

That loss to the Cardinals officially eliminated the Rams from the playoffs, and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  Now, they find themselves as 6.5-point chalk against an improving New York Giants team that I would argue is every bit as good as the Rams.  St. Louis just has no business laying this big of a number.

The Giants have played very well in each of their last five games. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 210 yards, outgaining them by an average of 42.0 yards per game. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (24-13) and Tennessee (36-7). They blew a 21-0 lead at Jacksonville to lose 24-25. They also played both Dallas (28-31) and San Francisco (10-16) tough as their three losses during this stretch have come by a combined 10 points.  They haven't been beaten by a touchdown or more in any of their last five games.

This New York offense has really started to heat up with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. It has put up 24 or more points in four straight games while averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch. Eli Manning now has decent numbers on the year as he’s competing 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,590 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Manning has thrown for at least 247 yards in four straight games with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio during this stretch.  Beckham has been the biggest reason for his resurgence.  He has 71 catches, including 46 in his last five games, and an NFL-high 62 targets over that span.  He has at least six receptions and 90 yards in each of his last seven games while totaling six touchdowns in his last four.

The defense is also playing its best football of the season here of late. The Giants are allowing just 15.3 points and 279.0 yards per game in their last three contests. They held the Jaguars to just 258 total yards, the Titans to 207 yards, and the Redskins to 372 yards. There’s just no way the Giants should be catching this many points when they are playing great on both sides of the football right now.

In my eyes, these teams are pretty much equals. That also shows up in the stats as the Giants rank 23rd in the league in yardage differential this season, while the Rams rank 24th. So, as equals, this line would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. Give the Rams three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be St. Louis -3. We are getting some real good value here on the Giants as 6.5-point dogs as there are a couple of key numbers between 3 and 6.5 that could work in our favor here.

This also could be a letdown spot for the Rams. They are coming off that tough loss to Arizona last week, and now with nothing to play for at 6-8, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at Seattle in hopes of spoiling the Seahawks’ bid to win the division. They likely won’t be as motivated for this game as they were against Arizona, or as they will be next week in Seattle. That could work against them here as well.

There has been some tension among some St. Louis players and coaches following that loss to Arizona, too.  The defeat caused finger-pointing in which tight end Jared Cook said afterward that the Rams were "outcoached" and "outplayed."  Cook would later go on to say that he regretted saying those words, but sometimes you just cannot take that back.

The Giants' pass rush has seen a big-time resurgence here in recent weeks.  They have produced 22 sacks in their last three games for a total of 41 on the season, which is the fourth-best mark in the NFL.  That's bad news for a Rams' offensive line that has been hurt by injuries and poor play.

Tackle Jake Long is out for the year with a knee injury. Left guard Rodger Saffold is at less than full strength with a nagging shoulder injury that will require offseason surgery. Injury-prone center Scott Wells is wearing a brace covering his left arm while right guard Davin Joseph is a journeyman.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS since 1983. The Giants are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game. The Rams are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Giants are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on turf. New York is 5-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with St. Louis dating back to 2001. Take the Giants Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +11

While everyone and their brother knows that Rex Ryan is likely out after this season, he has done a tremendous job of getting his players to show up every week. The perfect going away present for him would be to beat Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots one last time. Ryan has made no bones about the fact that he hates the Patriots and that they are their biggest rivals. The Jets always come to play against New England.

That was obviously the case in their first meeting of 2014. The Jets actually outplayed the Patriots as 9.5-point road underdogs and should have won, but came out on the losing end 25-27. They outgained the Patriots 423-323 for the game, or by 100 total yards. They did so behind a balanced attack offensively with 218 rushing yards and 205 passing yards. This has been a very closely contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 3 points or fewer. The home team has won four of the last five meetings as well.

New York can use its rushing attack to shorten the game and keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field, which has been a formula for success for Ryan in his time here against the Patriots. The Jets rank 2nd in the league in rushing this season at 147.1 yards per game. The Patriots haven’t exactly been that great against the run as they allow 4.1 yards per carry. New York, averaging 4.7 per carry, should have plenty of success on the ground in this one.

The Jets have been emphasizing the run even more here down the stretch with a ton of success.  They have averaged 186.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games overall.  They have also averaged 197.5 rushing yards per game in their last two meetings with the Patriots.  Prior to rushing for 218 yards in their first meeting this season, they had rushed for 177 yards in a 30-27 upset home win over the Patriots in their final meeting of 2013 as well.

The thing I really like about the Jets is that they continue to fight. While they have gone just 1-2 in their last three games, they had a chance to win all three. They only lost 13-16 at home to Miami as 6.5-point underdogs three weeks ago. They lost 24-30 in overtime to Minnesota as 4-point road underdogs two weeks ago. They were finally rewarded for their hard-nosed play with a 16-11 win at Tennessee last week. These players love Ryan, and they aren’t going to lay down for the Patriots, either.

The Patriots could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. This was already one of the biggest public teams in the NFL.  But after winning nine of their last 10 and covering the spread in five of their last six, the betting public is all over them even more right now. They were last week in a blowout win over the Dolphins, and they will be again this week against the Jets.

Oddsmakers realize this, forcing them to set the spread much higher than it should be. That’s indicated by the fact that the Patriots were only 9.5-point home favorites against the Jets the first time these teams played, and now they are 10-point road favorites. They should only be favored by roughly 3.5 points given the line of the first meeting when adjusting for home-field advantage.  I believe we are getting roughly 7 points of value on the Jets this week because of it.

Plays against road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. New England is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven December games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New England.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Oddsmakers are saying that these teams are essentially equals with this spread when you factor in three points for home-field advantage. I have little doubt that the Steelers are the better team, and that will show on the football field Sunday. There is a ton of value in backing them as only 3-point home favorites in this contest. The numbers certainly indicate that they are the superior squad.

Indeed, Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 68.5 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Seahawks and Colts rank ahead of the Steelers in this department, so they are in some elite company. Conversely, the Chiefs rank just 18th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained by 8.8 yards per game.

Pittsburgh simply lights up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. It is scoring 27.8 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense at 424.9 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,415 yards with 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Antonio Brown (115 receptions, 1,498 yards, 11 TD) and Le’Veon Bell (1,278 rushing yards, 765 receiving yards, 10 total TD) are both having monster seasons as well.

Kansas City, which ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game, simply is not going to be able to keep up. Alex Smith STILL has not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. As a result, its offense is way too predictable as the Steelers can focus in on stopping Jamaal Charles and the tight ends. Dick LeBeau will have the right game plan in place to make Smith try and beat them downfield, which he is incapable of doing.

This Pittsburgh defense hasn't been lights out by any means, but it has played better in recent weeks with a lot of guys finally getting healthy.  Also, it stops the run pretty well, giving up just 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 per game.  It has allowed a combined 183 rushing yards in its back-to-back wins over Cincinnati (42-21) and Atlanta (27-20).  It has given up less than 100 rushing yards in five of its last seven overall.  Stopping Kansas City's rushing attack will be the key for the Steelers defensively, and they are equipped to do it.

The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season where they are putting up 35.0 points and 460.2 yards per game. The Chiefs are just 3-4 on the road this year where they are scoring 20.3 points per game and averaging 333.3 yards per game. Kansas City just does not play all that well when it gets away from Arrowhead Stadium, while the Steelers have proven that their game travels everywhere with them.

Kansas City is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight up in its last four home meetings with Kansas City.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5

I am taking the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.  Unders went 13-3 in the NFL last week and have been a very profitable bet toward the end of the season as they usually are with the change in weather and the defenses having the advantage over the offenses with so much game film by now.  This is easily my favorite total in Week 16.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL, which is a reason I'm also on the Steelers this week, but it is not going to put up a huge number on this Chiefs' defense.  I look for the Steelers to win in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one somewhere in the neighborhood of a 24-14 game.

Pittsburgh does not have an elite defense this year, but it does stop the run well, which will be the key to stopping Kansas City.  The Steelers are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 rushing yards per game.  They have held the Bengals and Falcons to a combined 183 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and they have allowed less than 100 in five of their last seven.

Kansas City has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  It ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game.  It relies on Jamaal Charles and the running game as well as the tight ends to move the football.  In fact, the Chiefs have gone 17 straight games without throwing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.  Veteran Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will have an excellent game plan in place to stop Charles and the tight ends and make Alex Smith try and beat them.

All Kansas City games this season have been unbelievably low-scoring.  In fact, the Chiefs have combined with their opponents for 45 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games this year.  They have played in 10 straight games where 45 or fewer points were scored, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 47.5 points.

The Chiefs do play great defense, ranking 8th in the league in total defense at 331.8 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 18.1 points per game.  They also defense the pass very well, allowing just 199.2 passing yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense.  Again, the Steelers are not going to put up a ton of points on the Chiefs, but just enough to get the win and cover while keeping the total under the number.

The last two meetings between these teams have been ugly, defensive battles.  In 2012, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 16-13 (OT) at home for 29 combined points.  In 2011, the Steelers also snuck out  with a 13-9 road win for 22 combined points.  While I look for a little higher-scoring game this time around, it won't be enough to exceed 47 points.

Kansas City is 14-4 to the UNDER In its last 18 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 260 passing yards per game.  The Chiefs are 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game.  Pittsburgh is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Chiefs last 60 games on grass. 

Mike Tomlin is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 6-0 to the UNDER in home games in the last two weeks of the regular season as the coach of the Steelers.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bowling Green/South Alabama Camellia Bowl BAILOUT on South Alabama -2.5

When deciding who to take in a bowl game, you certainly must consider what motivational factors will influence the game. I have no doubt that the South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) will be the more motivated team in this one. They are extremely happy to be here as this will be their first-ever bowl game.

Bowling Green (7-6, 5-3 MAC), meanwhile, got a worse bowl because it lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. If it would have won that game, it would be playing Conference USA Champion Marshall.  It is not nearly as excited to be here playing South Alabama when it could have played the 12-1 Thundering Herd instead.

You also have to consider the proximity of the schools to their bowl destination. Well, South Alabama is going to have a huge home-field advantage in this one considering it is being played in its home state in Montgomery, Alabama. So the Jaguars get check marks in both motivation and home-field advantage. Those two factors are enough to lay the 2.5 points with the Jaguars.

I’m not so sure that they aren’t the better team, too. They come into this game undervalued because they went 1-4 down the stretch after a 5-2 start. Well, a closer look at the five opponents they played tells the story. They played five other bowl eligible teams during this stretch in UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Carolina and Navy. They played three of those teams very tough, beating Texas State 24-20 at home, losing at Lafayette 9-19, and losing to Navy 40-42.

Bowling Green is playing its worst football of the season coming into this game. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost 20-27 at Toledo while getting outgained by 117 yards, it lost 24-41 at home to a bad Ball State team while getting outgained by 31 yards, and lost 17-51 to Northern Illinois while getting outgained by 265 yards. The Falcons just cannot be trusted to bring their best effort after that crushing loss to the Huskies in the MAC Title Game.

South Alabama has not been elite offensively this season, but it has rushed the ball fairly well. It averages 183 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It should find plenty of success moving the football on the ground against a Bowling Green defense that has been pitiful this year.

The Falcons give up 33.9 points and 499.2 yards per game against teams that only average 27.9 points and 415 yards per game. They have been atrocious against the run all season, allowing an average of 207 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. In their last three games, they gave up 325 rushing yards to Toledo, 199 to Ball State, and 334 to Northern Illinois.

There’s no question that the Jaguars have the better defense in this one, and that’s a big reason while I’ll side with them here. The Jaguars are giving up just 25.8 points, 390.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 30.5 points, 432 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Bowling Green only averages 29.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that give up 29.8 points per game and 5.8 per play, so its offense is nothing special.

South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge can be a tough matchup for any defense. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound senior is on the radar of many scouts with the prototypical build and athleticism that NFL teams covet. He completed only 51.9 percent of his passes in 10 games but threw 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final six.  He'll be looking to put on a show for the scouts in his final game.

The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Jaguars.  Take South Alabama in the Camellia Bowl Saturday.

15* Chargers/49ers NFL Saturday No-Brainer on San Diego +1

The San Diego Chargers are 8-6 right now and still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They are just one game back in the wild card race, so they still have a ton to play for. There’s no question that we’re going to see an inspired effort from the Chargers given the situation. The same cannot be said for the 49ers.

San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention with its 7-17 road loss to Seattle last week. It now has nothing to play for but pride. Off a big loss to their arch rivals last week, and with the realization that they won’t make the postseason, I look for the 49ers to come out very flat in this game and to not bring the kind of focus and effort it’s going to take to win.

The Chargers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late, which is the reason they have lost two in a row coming in. They lost to the Patriots 14-23 and to the Broncos 10-22, who are the top two seeds in the AFC right now, and arguably the two best teams in the NFL. They were competitive in both losses, and their defense played very well in them.

The 49ers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, especially in the second half of the season. They are scoring just 17.9 points per game and averaging 314.2 yards per game to rank 28th in scoring offense and 27th in total offense. The 49ers have scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last five games, averaging a pitiful 11.2 points per game during this stretch. Colin Kaepernick has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and he simply cannot be trusted.

Philip Rivers thrives late in the season, going 30-8 in his career in the month of December. Obviously, the losses to the Patriots and Broncos have hurt that record, but not too many teams are beating those two squads this year. I still believe Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he’s having another fine season. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,639 yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Knowing the competitor he is, Rivers will rally the troops this week and go get a much-needed win for their playoff hopes.

The 49ers also have a ton of injury issues right now, and with nothing to play for, they are more apt to rest them then have them play through injury.  The players listed as questionable are Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Steve Johnson, Glenn Dorsey, Chris Culliver, Anthony Davis, Tramaine Brock, Ahmad Brooks and Chris Borland.  All of these players are key contributors, and most are starters.

Also, Ray McDonald was released the team due to his legal issues.  It's fitting that the 49ers waited until they were out of the playoff chase to release McDonald.  It's a very telling sign that they are going to go the conservative route with all of these injured players and most likely give their younger guys a chance to play.  They don't care about wins and losses at this point.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 78-39 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 58-37 ATS in its last 95 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Take the Chargers Saturday.

20* Eagles/Redskins NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +9

This line is inflated due to the fact that the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Redskins are eliminated from postseason contention and have been for quite some time. While in some situations I would worry about the Redskins showing up, I never worry about it when they are playing their NFC East rivals. They always show up for the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants no matter the circumstance.

Washington is one of the best 3-11 teams in the history of the NFL. When you look at the numbers and not its record, you would think that this is a winning team or at least one around .500. That’s another reason why I believe the Redskins are undervalued here is because the numbers tell a completely different story than their record does.

Indeed, Washington ranks 9th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 19.7 yards per game this season. Of the top 16 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team due to their 6-8 record. The Redskins rank ahead of teams like the Packers, Cowboys, Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers, Chiefs and Bengals in yardage differential this year.

The Redskins rank 12th in the league in total offense at 358.6 yards per game. Yes, Colt McCoy is out with an injury, but it might be a blessing in disguise. Robert Griffin III has had some time to grasp the game from the sidelines, and I believe he’ll be a better quarterback because of it. He will look to finish the season on a strong note to prove that he is still the quarterback of the future in Washington. The defense ranks 10th in the league in giving up just 338.9 yards per game.

Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back ugly performances, and the curse of Mark Sanchez is finally starting to show through. It managed just 139 total yards in a 14-24 home loss to Seattle, and 294 total yards with four turnovers in a 27-38 loss to Dallas in its last two games. It was outgained by a whopping 301 total yards by the Seahawks, and by 70 yards by the Cowboys. The Eagles just have no business laying this many points with the way they are playing right now, especially on the road with Sanchez at quarterback.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings. Indeed, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less. Washington actually outplayed Philadelphia in the first meeting of 2014 and should have won on the road. It lost 34-37 as a 4-point dog despite outgaining the Eagles 511-379 for the game, or by 132 total yards. Kirk Cousins threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, and RGIII should pick up right where Cousins left off against this soft Philadelphia pass defense.

The Eagles are giving up 24.8 points per game and 371.3 yards per game this season to rank 26th in the league in total defense.  This defense is playing without arguably its two best players as well.  DeMeco Ryans has been out for an extended period of time and is the leader of the defense.  Now, top pass rusher Trent Cole is out with a fractured hand that he suffered last week against the Cowboys.  That's one less pass rusher that RGIII has to worry about, which will be huge in keeping him comfortable.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a team that wins 25% of fewer of its games playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Washington is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after 8-plus games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* Nevada/LA-Lafayette 2014 Bowl Opener on Louisiana-Lafayette +1

For starters, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns have a huge home-field advantage for this game as it will be played in their home state of Louisiana. In fact, these players and coaches are very familiar with this game as this will be the fourth consecutive time they have played in it. They are a perfect 3-0 in those three games. Obviously, it would be nice for these players to experience a different venue, but they haven’t looked at it that way. They will be fighting for their thousands of fans that show up to watch.

Lafayette (8-4) has really been playing some great football for quite some time now. It has gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. It went on the road and beat Texas State (34-10), LA-Monroe (34-17) and Troy (42-23) during this stretch, while also beating two other bowl teams in Arkansas State (55-40) and South Alabama (19-9) at home.

This is a veteran bunch that returned 17 starters from last year and was the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but Georgia Southern just didn’t lose a conference game all season, and the Rajin' Cajuns never had the chance to face the Eagles to settle it on the field. I just believe all of these senior starters aren’t going to allow this team to have a letdown even though this is the fourth consecutive time they’ll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.

It starts with senior quarterback Terrance Broadway, who leads an offense that is putting up 30.6 points and 417.9 yards per game this season. Broadway is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 646 yards and three scores. The one-two punch of Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD, 7.8/carry) and Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD, 4.6/carry) is tough to deal with.

I just have not been that impressed with Nevada (7-5, 4-4 MWC) this season. It went just 4-4 in a very weak Mountain West Conference and is not playing that great coming in. It has lost two of its last three games with its only win coming against 2-11 UNLV. It lost at home to Fresno State 20-40, getting outgained by 198 yards against a mediocre Bulldogs squad. It also lost at Air Force 38-45. Its seven wins this season have come against Southern Utah, Washington State, San Jose State, BYU, Hawaii, SDSU and UNLV.

Nevada’s defense is the reason it stands little chance in this game. It is giving up 28.2 points and 450.1 yards per game to rank 105th in the country in total defense. It hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. It is giving up 179 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. It is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their passes for 271 yards per game. Broadway and company will have a field day against this defense.

Nevada is a run-first team that averages 215 rushing yards per game compared to 197 passing yards. That actually makes this a great matchup for the Rajin’ Cajuns because they have been solid against the run, but not very good against the pass. They are allowing just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that average 168 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, they are an above-average defense against the run.

This game is going to come down to which team can stop the run because they both run it so frequently.  The edge obviously goes to the Rajin' Cajuns here as they give up just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, compared to the Wolf Pack, who give up 179 per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that average 167 per game and 4.3 per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. This trend goes right in line with my thinking. They haven’t been able to take advantage of poor passing defenses in the past, and they won’t in this one, either. Lafayette is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Nevada is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Mark Hudspeth is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 9-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 3-0 in bowl games as the coach of the Rajin' Cajuns.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

This is a matchup between two of the worst offenses in the NFL Thursday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South rivalry game.  I look for the defenses to dominate this contest, especially with how familiar these foes are having to play each other twice a season.

The first meeting was a defensive battle as well.  The Titans beat the Jaguars 16-14 at home for 30 combined points.  It was the second straight really low-scoring meeting in this series after they combined for 36 in their final showdown in 2013.  Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have seen 40 or fewer combined points.

Jacksonville ranks last in the league in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 31st in total offense (293.7 yards/game).  Tennessee ranks 29th in the league in scoring offense (16.5 points/game) and 29th in total offense (307.9 yards/game).  As you can see, both offenses have been among the worst in the NFL in 2014, and that will continue tonight.

Tennessee is down to its third-string quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst with both Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger out with injuries.  Look for a conservative game plan for Whitehurst, who is 1-2 as a start this year.  One of those starts came against Jacksonville in the first meeting.  He led the Titans to just 290 total yards and 16 points in the win, but did not commit a turnover.

The Jaguars have actually been playing some pretty good defense here of late. They held the Giants to 329 total yards, the Texans to just 304 total yards, and the Ravens to just 312 total yards in their last three games, respectively.  It took Baltimore forever to finally pull away for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last week because of how well the Jaguars' defense was playing.

The Titans came through with one of their best defensive efforts of the season last week.  They held the Jets to just 277 total yards in their 16-11 home loss.  Their defense certainly has the Jaguars figured out as they have held them to a combined 30 points (15.0 points/game) in their last two meetings.

Jacksonville is 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  The Jaguars are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine home games vs. poor defensive teams that give up 350 or more yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.  These five trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Saints/Bears ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on New Orleans -3

These teams share identical 5-8 records. However, there is one distinct difference, and it’s the reason that I am taking the Saints Monday night. The Saints are tied for first place in the NFC South and are still fighting to make the playoffs. The Bears have already been eliminated from the playoffs as they trail the final two wild card spots by four games with only three to play. So, the Saints will be the more motivated team in this one, and I’ll side with them as a result.

Couple that motivation with the fact that the Saints are the better team statistically despite their identical 5-8 records, and it’s plenty of reason to lay the three points with the road favorite this week. Indeed, the Saints rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 22.3 yards per game on the season. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and the Redskins, who are both underrated teams.

Chicago is every bit as bad as its 5-8 record would indicate. It ranks 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 35.0 yards per game this season. It has really been beat up defensively. It allows a league-worst 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 28th in the NFL in total defense at 377.8 yards per game.

That’s bad news for the Bears considering they will be up against one of the league’s best offenses this week. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense, averaging 421.0 yards per game. The Bears have allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They gave up 51 to New England, 55 to Green Bay, 34 to Detroit, and 41 to Dallas. The only exceptions were games against terrible offenses in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

The Bears have been decent offensively this year as they rank 18th at 342.8 yards per game. However, they just lost their best player on offense in Brandon Marshall to a season-ending injury, and Jay Cutler and company will suffer going forward as a result. Marshall has 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is simply irreplaceable. The Saints will be able to key in on stopping Alshon Jeffery this week instead of having to try to contain both Marshall and Jeffery, which will be a much easier task.

New Orleans has actually been playing better on the road than at home here of late. It has gone 2-0 in its last two road games with wins at Carolina (28-10) and at Pittsburgh (35-32). Even in its road game prior to those two wins, it only lost at Detroit 23-24 after blowing a 23-10 lead over the final four minutes of the game. These last three road games are proof that you can put to rest the notion that the Saints can only win at home.

Drew Brees has led the Saints to wins in each of the last two meetings with the Bears.  They won 30-13 at home in 2011 and 26-18 on the road last year over Chicago.  Brees has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 558 yards with five touchdowns without an interception in those two games, and figures to have another monster performance on Monday Night Football.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC opponents. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss. The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 December games.

Chicago is 0-8 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +10

This line is clearly an overreaction for a couple of different reasons. The first being the results last week. The Seahawks earned an impressive 24-14 road win at Philadelphia, while the 49ers lost at Oakland 13-24 despite being an 8-point favorite in that game. So, the public perception is high on the Seahawks right now, while it’s very low on the 49ers. That has forced the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be knowing that the betting public is going to be quick to back the Seahawks.

The other reason for this big spread is that the 49ers just lost to the Seahawks 19-3 at home two weeks ago. Obviously, that was not a good showing for the 49ers, but they are going to be playing desperate football Sunday because they know they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the 49ers will be out for blood in this game.

One thing that jumps out to me is the line on this game compared to the one in San Francisco.  The 49ers were 1-point favorites at home over the Seahawks, so when you factor in three points for home-field advantage, they should only be 5-point underdogs at Seattle in the rematch.  With this line being 10 instead, we are getting roughly 5 extra points of value on the 49ers.  That says it all right there.

Prior to that 19-3 win by the Seahawks, the previous two meetings in this series were decided by a combined eight points. The 49ers won 19-17 at home in 2013, and they also hung tough in a 17-23 road loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. They actually led that game most of the way before blowing it in the fourth quarter, so they have proven they can hang with the Seahawks in Seattle. They hold a 5-4 edge over the Seahawks in their last nine meetings.

With a defense as good as the one the 49ers feature, they have a chance to be competitive in every game they play. They rank 3rd in the league in total defense, giving up just 308.5 yards per game on the season. Yes, their offense has not been up to par, but their defense is the reason why they have played in so many close games this year. Indeed, 10 of the 49ers’ 13 games this year have been decided by 11 points or less. They have only lost twice by more than 11 points all season.

The 49ers also have the formula for stopping the Seahawks.  First and foremost, you must slow down Marshawn Lynch and the rushing attack.  Well, the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 97.2 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  They held the Raiders to just 85 rushing yards on 31 carries last week and should be able to build off of that performance.

This is actually a letdown spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off their huge road win over the Eagles last week, and they have Arizona on deck next week with first place in the NFC West likely on the line. They also already beat the 49ers by 16, so they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.

They won’t be as emotionally jacked up for this game as they were the first time they played the 49ers, or as much as they were against the Eagles, and as much as they will be next week against the Cardinals. It’s going to take 100% focus for the Seahawks to win this game by more than 10 points, and even that may not be enough against a 49ers team that will be out for revenge.  The Seahawks are almost overconfident right now, which will work against them.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) – revenging a loss against opponent, off a road loss are 75-35 (67.6%) ATS over the past 10 seasons.

San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a poor passing defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or better. The 49ers are 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Houston Texans +7

I really like the toughness that the Houston Texans (7-6) have shown over their last four games to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They have won three of their last four and the three victories haven’t even been close. They went on the road and beat both Cleveland (23-7) and Jacksonville (27-13), while also topping Tennessee (45-21) at home. Their lone loss came to Cincinnati (13-22) in a game where it was announced after that Ryan Mallett was playing with a torn pectoral muscle.

This Houston defense has really come alive during this stretch. It has given up an average of just 15.8 points per game in its last four games as this is one of the most underrated stop units in the league. The offense has really received a boost from the return of Arian Foster from a two-game absence. He returned the last two weeks, and to no surprise, the Texans have scored an average of 36.0 points per game in their last two.

Foster is having a huge year despite missing three games due to injury. He has rushed for 1,028 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry, while also catching 33 balls for 276 yards and four scores. This offense goes as he goes. The Texans are 6-4 in games that Foster has started this year. They rushed for 173 yards on the Jaguars last week and currently sit at 4th in the league in rushing at 137.1 yards per game.

The Colts have been extremely vulnerable defensively in 2014. They rank 18th in the league in total defense, allowing 23.6 points and 355.8 yards per game on the season. That’s not the sign of a team with staying power when it comes to the playoffs. They have not been very good against the run as they allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry.

Foster rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts in their 28-33 home loss to Indianapolis back on October 9th. The Texans had their chances to win that game, but they committed two costly fumbles on their final two drives. Both drives ended in turnovers, and both were as they were trying to take the lead with a game-winning touchdown late. I believe they’ll be within a touchdown late in this one with a chance to win as well.

Houston has played its best football on the road this season.  It is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in seven road games.  It is scoring 23.9 points per game and giving up just 18.6 points per game on the road.  It is actually outscoring teams by an average of 5.3 points per game away from home.  That really just shows how tough the Texans are mentally to be able to go on the road in this league and play that well.

Adding extra motivation for the Texans is that they have not won in Indianapolis in 12 all-time meetings.  "We're well aware that we have not won there," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. If that's not motivation, then I don't know what is.  Simply put, the Texans are going to be playing more inspired football this week than they have shown all season.

Turnovers could swing in the the Texans' favor in this one as well.  The Colts turned the ball over four times against the Browns last week in a fortunate 25-24 road win.  They have lost seven of 13 fumbles and had three passes picked off over the last three weeks.  They rely so much on Andrew Luck that their offense has become rather predictable, and opposing teams have been able to get pressure on him.  Houston has one of the best front fours in the league and will get plenty of pressure with J.J. Watt and company.

Plays on any team (HOUSTON) – after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 72-47 (60.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Browns PK

I don’t think the switch to Johnny Manziel at quarterback will have a huge impact on this game, but it was time to make the move nonetheless. Brian Hoyer had led just one touchdown drive in his last 29 series. Manziel will give the offense a spark this week, and the Browns have the element of surprise with him at quarterback over Hoyer. While I’m not sure this will be the right move for the team long-term, for one week I do believe it is the right move and will pan out.

This Cleveland offense will continue to perform at about a league-average level. It ranks 13th in the NFL in total offense at 353.8 yards per game. But the reason I’m siding with the Browns in this one is more due to their defense than anything. They are giving up a very respectable 20.8 points per game this season and will shut down this Cincinnati offense just as they did the last time these teams met up.

Cleveland (7-6) throttled Cincinnati 24-3 on the road back on November 6th. This game was every bit the blowout as the final score would indicate. The Browns outgained the Bengals 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Andy Dalton went just 10 of 33 for 86 yards with three interceptions in the worst performance of his career. He even had a healthy A.J. Green in that game, so there was no excuse. Green finished with three receptions for 23 yards.

That was a rare win for the road team in this series, too. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series over the past five-plus seasons. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Browns have won three of their last four home meetings with the Bengals with the last two coming via blowout. They won 17-6 at home last year and 34-24 at home in 2012. They have held the Bengals to 266 total yards or less in each of their last three meetings as this defense simply has Dalton and company figured out.

Another big reason why I’m backing the Browns in this one is because the Bengals are arguably the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, they’re in first place in the AFC North with an 8-4-1 record, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record would indicate. Most teams would have a losing record with the numbers they have put up.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 29.3 yards per game this season. Eight of the 10 teams ranked 23rd or worse in yardage differential have losing records this season, with only the Bengals and Cardinals as the exceptions. Arizona is also an overrated team.

The biggest culprit for this poor performance in yardage differential is the defense.  The Bengals are surrendering 22.2 points and 377.5 yards per game to rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense.  They gave up 42 points and 543 total yards in a 21-point loss to the Steelers last week.  With a stop unit like that, the Bengals have no staying power and will be bumped from the AFC North lead by season's end.  It starts this week against a desperate Browns team fighting for their playoff lives.

Cleveland is 4-3 at home this season with two of its three losses coming by a combined three points to Baltimore (24-26) and Indianapolis (24-25).  That's how close this is to being a 6-1 team at home, so obviously, the Browns have played great at home this year.  They are limiting opponents to just 19.3 points per game at home in 2014.

Cincinnati is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. The Bengals are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games off a loss by 21 or more points. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Cincinnati.  Take the Browns Sunday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots are on a mission to get that No. 1 seed in the AFC because they know their chances of reaching the Super Bowl are greatly increased if the AFC runs through Foxborough. They even went out to San Diego as a team for the entire week after their loss to the Packers in Week 13 and made it a business trip. That experience with an entire week together will only grow the bond between these players. It was amazing to see the emotion the Patriots showed once they had beaten the Chargers 23-14; it was almost like they had just won the Super Bowl.

New England (10-3) has been playing as well as anyone for a couple months now. It has won eight of its last nine games overall with six of those wins coming by 15 points or more. That includes wins over the likes of Cincinnati (43-17) and Denver (42-20) at home, as well as road wins over Indianapolis (42-20) and Buffalo (37-22). The Patriots are scoring 35.4 points per game and allowing just 19.7 points per game in their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.7 points per game during this stretch.

Miami has lost three of its last five games and has not played well at all over this span. It has been outgained in four of those five games, including by 123 yards in loss to Detroit, by 137 yards in a loss to Denver, and by 198 yards in a 15-point loss to Baltimore last week. It was even outgained by the Jets by 35 yards and was lucky to escape with a 16-13 road win in that contest thanks to a last-minute touchdown.

New England just held a high-powered San Diego offense to only 14 points and 216 total yards. That’s bad news for a Miami offense that has really hit the skids in recent weeks. The Dolphins have been held to 16 or fewer points in three of their last five games. They only managed 249 total yards against Baltimore, 291 total yards against New York, 228 total yards against Detroit, and 313 total yards against Denver in four of their last five games.

Tom Brady has a 45-7 career record in the month of December, which is the best of any quarterback to ever play the game. New England is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points per game this year. It is putting up 35.7 points and 408.2 total yards at Gillette Stadium, while allowing just 17.3 points per game there. These two trends are simply too hard to ignore and would be foolish to bet against.

Plus, the Patriots want revenge on the Dolphins, so they certainly will not be looking past them.  The Patriots are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  In their last 10 games in same-season revenge situations, they are 9-0-1 ATS while covering the spread by an average of 10.0 points per game.

The Dolphins are really hurting in the secondary right now, which could allow Brady to have a monster game against them. They just lost arguably their best player on D in safety Louis Delmas to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Jamar Taylor have been out since Week 11 and Week 13, respectively, and both are questionable to return this week. The loss of Delmas is huge, and if Finnegan and Taylor both don’t play, it would just be an added bonus.

While Brady has been tearing it up through the air, you might find that the Patriots dominate this game on the ground just as much.  That's because the Dolphins have been shredded up front defensively in recent weeks.  In their last three games, they allowed 201 rushing yards to the Broncos, 277 to the Jets, and 183 to the Ravens for an average of 220.3 rushing yards per game.

The Patriots are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  New England is 6-0 ATS in home games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons, winning in these spots by 16.6 points per game. New England is 7-0 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Add the 9-0 ATS trend on same-season revenge, and we have a perfect 22-0 system backing New England here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +5.5

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) have been fighting hard to make the playoffs here in recent weeks, and they have been playing their best football of the season as a result. They have won two of their last three games while going a perfect 3-0 against the spread. Their two wins came via the blowout as they dominated the Jets 38-3 on a neutral field. They also topped the Browns 26-10 at home. They outscored those two teams a ridiculous 64-13.

However, I was just as impressed with the Bills’ only loss during this stretch. They went into Denver last week and gave the Broncos a run for their money in a 17-24 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs. They actually outplayed the Broncos when you look at the box score. They outgained them 415-306 for the game, or by 109 total yards. They held Peyton Manning to just 14 of 20 passing for 173 yards and two interceptions without a touchdown pass. It was the first time in over 50 games that Manning failed to throw a TD pass.

A big reason I was on the Bills last week was because of their passing defense. Well, after shutting down Manning, they certainly showed that they can stop anyone’s passing game. That’s why you have to like their chances of slowing down Green Bay and its passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers, who is having an MVP-type season. I look for this Bills’ defense to be the reason that they not only stay within five points, but also the reason that they have a chance to win this game outright.

Buffalo ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game while ranking 5th in total defense at 311.9 yards per game. The Bills have been elite against the pass, ranking 5th in the NFL at 212.8 yards per game allowed. The Packers, on the other hand, have been terrible defensively this season. They are giving up 23.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the league in total defense (374.4 yards/game).

Green Bay is 7-0 at home but just 3-3 on the road. It is actually getting outscored by 4.3 points per game away from home this season. It has only one win on the road by more than three points this year, and that was a 38-17 win at Chicago in a game that was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Packers were actually outgained by 138 yards by the Bears in that contest.

The Packers have been even worse defensively on the road. They are giving up 26.8 points and 399.8 yards per game away from home. Their offense has been held in check in road games, too, averaging just 343.0 yards per game. So, they are getting outgained by 56.8 yards per game away from home this year.

This is also a tough spot for the Packers. They are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football against the Falcons last week. Their defense has to be tired, too, after surrendering 37 points and 465 total yards to the Falcons. Their stop unit spent most of the second half on the field and looked to be worn down as the Falcons scored 30 points after intermission.

Kyle Orton should have a big game against this Green Bay defense. Orton has stabilized the offense, going 5-4 as a starter this season. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,355 yards with 14 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the year. He threw for a season-high 355 yards against a very good Broncos defense last week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 89-47 (65.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. The home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series dating back to 1994.  Green Bay has never won in Buffalo in five trips there.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between St. Louis and Arizona.  These are two of the best defenses in the NFL up against two of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll gladly side with the UNDER 41 points in this NFC West rivalry game.

St. Louis has shut out back-to-back opponents.  It is playing as well defensively as any team in the NFL right now.  It held Oakland to 244 total yards and Washington to 206 total yards.  Since Chris Long returned from injury, this stop unit has taken its game to the next level.

One of the most shocking facts about how well this defense is playing is that it has not allowed an opponent to run a play inside its own 20-yard line in three of its past four games. The Rams have now gone 128 minutes and 20 seconds without allowing an opponent to score. Since Week 7, the Rams have 34 sacks, which is the most in the league over that period of time.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game.  It has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  It has been relying on its defense all season, and that stop unit is the only reason it has a 10-3 record right now.  It's certainly not because of the offense.

Arizona ranks 23rd in the league in total offense at 325.3 yards per game.  It has been even worse with Drew Stanton at quarterback here of late.  The Cardinals have been held to 18 or fewer points in each of their last four games.  They are averaging a mere 13.0 points per game in their last four.

St. Louis hasn't been any better offensively.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense, averaging only 317.2 yards per game this season.  Yes, the Rams have been putting up some decent scoring numbers here of late, but that has been mostly due to their defense creating easy opportunities.  Arizona only averages 1.0 turnovers per game and won't be giving up easy opportunities.

Yes, Arizona and St. Louis combined for 45 points in their first meeting in a 31-14 Cardinals victory at home.  However, the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns over the last 5 minutes to push the final combined score over the number.  The Rams managed just 244 total yards while the Cardinals had 335.  I'll take my chances that there won't be two defensive touchdowns in the rematch.

Arizona is 12-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 6-0 to the UNDER in December games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Rams last 27 December games dating back further.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +13

The Atlanta Falcons have been playing their best football of the season of late. They have won three of their last four games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to Cleveland (24-26). They have even won their last two road games with victories over the Bucs (27-17) and Panthers (19-17). They also beat the NFC West-leading Cardinals 29-18 at home last week in an effort that shows they can play with anyone.

The Falcons racked up a whopping 500 total yards on a very good Arizona defense last week. They also limited the Cardinals to just 18 points and 329 total yards. They have held three of their last four opponents to 18 points or fewer, so the defense is improving. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 41 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. Steven Jackson had one of his best games as a Falcon, rushing for 101 yards on just 18 carries.

Green Bay is in a massive letdown spot here. It played in arguably the biggest game in the NFL in Week 13 against the Patriots, and it came away with a 26-21 home victory. It’s simply going to be hard for them to bring the same kind of emotion to this game. It will need to play almost a perfect game to put the Falcons away by two touchdowns or more, which is what it would take to cover this ridiculous 13-point spread. The Packers are simply a public team that the public backs no matter what, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Atlanta is fully capable of keeping up with Green Bay in a shootout. It is putting up 24.2 points and 374.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total offense. It is only slightly behind the Packers, who rank 8th in total offense at 377.9 yards per game. The Packers are going to surrender points in this one because their defense simply isn’t that good. They rank 25th in the league in total defense, allowing an average of 366.8 yards per game.

Obviously, Atlanta is just 5-7 on the season. However, it is in a tie for first place in the NFC South, so it has everything to play for at this point in the season. The Falcons are getting treated like a 5-7 team with this 13-point spread, too. They aren’t getting treated like the team they are right now, which is one that has won three of their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined three points to playoff contenders in Detroit (21-22) and Cleveland (24-26).

The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. They are winning by an average of 7.1 points per game in this spot. The Packers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Seahawks/Eagles NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +1

Mark Sanchez has actually played pretty well in his four starts with the Eagles, leading them to a 3-1 record. However, it has mostly come against a soft slate of defenses. The Panthers rank 17th in total defense, the Packers rank 25th, the Titans rank 30th, and the Cowboys rank 23rd. So, his four starts have come against four teams that rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in total defense.

Now, Sanchez will be up against the best defense in the NFL. Indeed, the Seahawks rank 1st in the league in total defense, allowing 285.8 yards per game. They are also 3rd against the pass (199.4 yards/game) and 5th against the run (86.3 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses. I look for Sanchez to really struggle in this one and to make some mistakes that will cost his team the game.

Seattle is surging right now, having won five of its last six games overall. It is now just one game behind Arizona for first place in the NFC West, and I fully expect it to win the division by season’s end with a strong finish. The Seahawks have allowed three points each in back-to-back wins over Arizona (19-3) and San Francisco (19-3) by the same margins. Both the Cardinals and 49ers have beaten the Eagles this year to hand them two of their three losses.

The Seahawks also allowing an average of 184.0 yards per game in their wins over the Cardinals and 49ers.  They have been absolutely dominant against the run in recent weeks.  They have held four of their last five opponents to under 65 rushing yards, and they've forced 11 turnovers in their last six.  Both Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor recently returned from injury to give the D a boost.  They should be able to shut down LeSean McCoy and the Eagles' running game.  Also, opposing quarterbacks have a 65.0  rating in their last six games, with only Eli Manning throwing for more than 200 yards.

Sanchez was 9 of 22 for 124 yards in his only matchup against the Seahawks and Pete Carroll, his former college coach.  Sanchez lost that game 28-7 as a member of the Jets back in 2012.  Carroll will have an advantage here because he coached against Chip Kelly in college and knows the system that Kelly likes to run.  Seattle has also won its last three meetings with the Eagles in Philadelphia.

While the Eagles have a very good offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are giving up 23.7 points and 366.2 yards per game this season to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Russell Wilson and company should have their way with this stop unit Sunday afternoon. Wilson leads a solid Seattle offense that is putting up 24.8 points and 361.0 yards per game this season. This unit is better than it gets credit for, and they don't make mistakes as Wilson has not thrown an interception in any of his last three games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage greater than 75% in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are a sensational 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Seattle is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 47

These division rivalry games always tend to be lower-scoring because teams know each other so well having played each other twice a season.  That becomes even more the case later in the year after teams have so much film on their opponents to study.  That extra film work certainly benefits the defenses a lot more than the offenses at this point in the season.  Both teams know each others' personnel, playing style and offensive systems.

Unders in division matchups have gone 575-521 (52.3%) since 2003.  To compare, unders in non-division matchups have gone 883-976 (47.5%) during that same span.  These two stats just show that this theory has some real proof, but a closer look at late-season games with higher totals in divisional matchups is where the real money is made.

Unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39 and below in December or later are only 48-59 (44.9%) since 2003.  However, unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39.5 and above in December or later are 161-111 (59.2%) since 2003.  That is some time-tested evidence that I believe carries some real weight here.

This total between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh has been set at 47, which is an enormous number.  Although the sample size is very small, the under in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati games has a record of 5-2 since 2003 when they meet after the start of December, compared to 7-8 in all other meetings during that same span.

I believe this number has been inflated due to Pittsburgh's 35-32 shootout with New Orleans last week.  Obviously, the Saints have a horrible defense but one of the best offenses in the league.  So, a high-scoring game was likely.  Cincinnati has a much worse offense but a better defense than New Orleans.

The Steelers rank 12th in the NFL in total defense, while the Bengals rank 10th in the league in scoring defense.  I believe these are two of the better stop units in the league.  While the Steelers are improved offensively this season, the Bengals are just 18th in the league in total offense.

However, Pittsburgh has done most of its offensive damage at home.  It has been a completely different story on the road.  The Steelers are only averaging 18.3 points per game away from home this season.  They managed just 10 points in Cleveland, 13 points at the New York Jets, 17 points at Jacksonville, and 6 points at Baltimore.

Cincinnati has been playing in some real low-scoring games of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four games overall.  It has combined with each of its last four opponents for 37 or fewer points, and an average of 31.5 points per game.  That includes 37 combined points at New Orleans on November 16th as the Bengals limited the Saints to just 10 points in a 27-10 win.

Pittsburgh & Cincinnati have combined for 42 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  The only exception was a 30-20 win by the Steelers last year at home in a fluke high-scoring game.  The Bengals only had 279 yards, while the Steelers only had 290 yards in that game.  They have combined for an average of 36.7 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is 10.3 points per game less than this posted total of 47.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 79-37 (68.1%) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 7-0 to the UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more possession minutes per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons.

The Bengals are 7-0 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bengals last six games in the second half of the season vs. poor defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more.  These last four trends combined for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been a very good bet over time. The Buccaneers represent one of my favorite double-digit dogs this week because there are a plethora of them. They have been much better than their 2-10 record would indicate this season as they have rarely been blown out. I believe they will stay within double-digits of the Lions Sunday afternoon.

Eight of the Buccaneers’ 10 losses this season have come by 10 points or less. So, they have been in every game they have played aside from the blowout losses to the Ravens and Falcons. They are certainly better than a 2-10 team, but they just haven’t been rewarded in the win column. This team continues to put their hardhats on and come to play every Sunday, and I see no reason that will be any different in this game.

I really like what I’ve seen from the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They have actually outgained four of their last five opponents. They outgained Cleveland by 35 yards in a 17-22 loss, Atlanta by 51 yards in a 17-27 loss, Washington by 7 yards in a 27-7 win, and Chicago by 163 yards in a 13-21 loss. The only exception was last week as they were outgained by just 25 yards by the Bengals in a 13-14 home loss.

They had every chance to win that game, right down until the final few snaps when they were looking to get within field goal range for a game-winner.  It was another tremendous performance for the defense, which has been playing lights-out for weeks.  Indeed, the Bucs have allow an average of 18.3 points and 299.7 yards per game over their last six contests.

Detroit comes into this game overvalued off a blowout win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. I still consider the Lions to be one of the better teams in the league, but asking them to win by more than 10 points to cover this spread is asking too much. The betting public must be quick to overlook the two ugly losses by the Lions prior to that win over the Bears. They were outgained by 90 yards in a 6-14 road loss to Arizona, and by 104 yards in a 9-34 loss at New England.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between Detroit and Tampa Bay. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 11 meetings in this series. The Buccaneers went into Detroit and came away with a 24-21 road victory last year. This has also been a very closely-contested series. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Bucs have won five of their last six road meetings with the Lions.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 81-37 (68.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Bucs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games coming in. The Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Buccaneers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +3

This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. Whenever one team is coming off a blowout victory, while another team is coming off a blowout loss, there’s usually a ton of value to be had in backing the team coming off the blowout loss, and fading the one coming off the blowout win. I believe that’s precisely the case in this matchup as the Rams should not be 3-point road favorites over the Redskins in this one.

Washington is probably the most underrated team in the NFL at this point of the season due to its 3-9 record. This team has not quit as it keeps fighting. It only lost 13-17 at San Francisco two weeks ago, and it had its chances against Indianapolis last week. It got to within four points in the second half, but could not hang on as the Colts ran away with it late for a 49-27 victory.

That loss to the Colts wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Redskins were only outgained by 62 yards for the game and really should have only lost by single-digits. The difference was that the Colts scored touchdowns when they got into the red zone, not once having to settle for a field goal. The Redskins, on the other hand, had to settle for too many field goals and turned the ball over on downs too many times.

Conversely, the Rams’ 52-0 win over the Raiders wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. Usually, to win by that many points, you would have to dominate the box score and likely outgain a team by roughly 300 yards. That wasn’t the case at all as the Rams only outgained the Raiders by 104 yards for the game. St. Louis only racked up 348 total yards in the win. The difference was that the Raiders committed five turnovers and gave the Rams too many easy scoring opportunities.

The numbers indicate that the Redskins are the better team, period. The Redskins rank 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 26.2 yards per game. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, a whopping 15 of them have winning records on the season. That’s the kind of elite company the the Redskins are in this year, and their record should be much better than it is.

To compare, St. Louis ranks a woeful 27th in yardage differential. It is getting outgained by 40.3 yards per game, and it has been outgained by at least 60 years in seven of its last eight games overall.  The Rams are at least as bad as their 5-7 record would indicate, and probably worse. They have no business laying a field goal on the road this week given these numbers. But, the only reason they are is because the public perception on them is at an all-time high right now. It’s not warranted.

Washington is a much better team with Colt McCoy under center. He is completing a sensational 75.3 percent of his passes for 819 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception this year.

The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. St. Louis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 vs. NFC East opponents.  The Rams haven't won two games in a row all season as they have followed up every win with a loss.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +6

Neither of these teams really have much to play for at this point in the season. However, both showed that they will continue to fight as the Vikings beat the Panthers last week, while the Jets had the Dolphins dead in the water before losing on a last-second field goal. So, I do expect both teams to show up in this game as well despite the circumstances. From a value standpoint, it’s clear that the Jets are the right side in this one.

Minnesota has no business being this heavily-favored against a team that is pretty much its equal in New York. The reason the Vikings are laying 6 points is because the public perception on them is high right now after their 31-13 win over the Panthers. Well, that game was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Vikings simply benefited from blocking two punts and returning both of them for touchdowns.

You can’t expect to get two special teams touchdowns every week, and that’s what it took for the Vikings to blow out the hapless Panthers last week. The Panthers have lost six straight games and are a complete mess right now. The Vikings were even outgained by 138 yards by the Panthers last week. They were outgained by 225 yards in a 13-21 loss to Chicago two weeks ago as well. The numbers show that this team simply isn’t that good.

Minnesota ranks a woeful 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 42.1 yards per game. New York actually ranks a respectable 18th in yardage differential, only getting outgained by 10.5 yards per game.  The Jets are only one of three teams (Redskins, Saints) who rank in the top 18 in yardage differential who currently have losing records.  They are obviously better than their record would indicate, just like the Saints and Redskins.

These numbers tell me that the Jets are actually the better team and should probably be favored on a neutral field. The Vikings should maybe be a slight favorite at home, but certainly not a favorite of 6 points. That 6 points could easily come into play here, and thus the Jets are the value play and the smart bet.

I like the fight I saw from the Jets last week as they simply manhandled the Dolphins at the line of scrimmage. They rushed for 277 yards on 49 carries and held the Dolphins to just 74 yards on 18 carries. They actually outgained the Dolphins by 35 yards in the game and probably should have won. They clearly have not quit fighting for head coach Rex Ryan.

After rushing for 277 yards on the Dolphins, they should be able to find a ton of success on the ground against the Vikings again this week. That’s because Minnesota has allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games. It has given up an average of 148.3 rushing yards per game during this stretch, including 157.0 per game in its last three.

The Jets rank a solid 7th in the league in total defense, only giving up 322.0 yards per game. The Vikings are going to struggle to move the football and put up points without getting aided by fluke plays in special teams or on defense. That’s because they rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense, averaging a mere 300.8 yards per game. They are only averaging 253.7 yards per game in their last three contests, so Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been the savior that many thought he’d be.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 14 points.  New York is 8-1 in nine all-time meetings with Minnesota.  It has won 7 straight meetings.  Roll with the Jets Sunday.

15* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -4

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0) certainly created expectations from oddsmakers this season that they could not live up to after winning the BCS Championship last year. Despite going a perfect 12-0 straight up, they have gone a woeful 3-9 against the spread this season. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to fade them because of it. This is one of the lowest spreads we’ve had an opportunity to back Florida State at as a result. That’s why I believe there is value in backing the Seminoles as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Tech (10-2), meanwhile, comes into this game way overvalued due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes a win against Georgia in overtime last week in a game that I backed the Yellow Jackets as 12-point underdogs. That was a game where the Bulldogs were deflated after Missouri had won on Friday to punch its ticket into the SEC Championship, which prevented Georgia from playing in it. I simply believe the Yellow Jackets caught Georgia at the right time, and now they are getting too much respect from the books after that win.

All the Seminoles do is win. They extended their winning streak to 28 games with their 24-19 victory over Florida last week. I realize that they have six victories by 6 points or less this season, and that’s a big reason why I have faded them with regularity up to this point when they have been a big favorite. However, I have backed them a couple of their small spreads, and they have come through for me with a 42-31 win at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 30-26 win at Miami as a 2-point favorite. Basically, all they have to do is win this game and they’ll cover considering this is only a 4-point spread and it likely won't come into play.

What I like about this play as well is that Florida State has played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch and is more battle-tested. It has faced six straight tough games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida. Georgia Tech’s last six games have come against UNC, Pitt, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Georgia. It also faced Clemson without star QB Deshaun Watson, while FSU had to play Clemson with Watson and without Jameis Winston.

This is a very good matchup for the Seminoles because their strength defensively is stopping the run. They are giving up a respectable 146 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. Georgia Tech is a primary running team in the triple-option. Although it is an improved passing team this season, any threat it had of moving the football through the air ended against Georgia.

That’s because top receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a knee injury in the loss to Georgia and is doubtful to play Saturday. This is a bigger loss than I believe the oddsmakers are factoring in. Smelter leads the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (715) and receiving touchdowns (7). To compare, second place in all three categories is Darren Waller (16 receptions, 255 yards, 4 TD). That just shows you how important Smelter is to the offense.

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t exactly been dominant, either. It is giving up 24.1 points, 388.7 yards per game, and 6.1 yards per play. That is rather mediocre when you consider its opponents average 405 yards per game and 5.8 per play against all teams they have faced this year. The Yellow Jackets have simply won the time of possession this year, which has kept their suspect defense off the field for the majority of games.

That won’t happen against this high-powered FSU offense that averages 34.6 points and 430.3 yards per game on the year. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that opposing defenses that they’ve faced only giving up 25.3 points and 357 yards per game. The Seminoles are also averaging 6.3 yards per play against teams that give up only 5.2 yards per play.  This is still an elite offense under Winston.

Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 37-20 ATS in their last 57 games following two more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Florida State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -14.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) are the best team in college football, period. They have been the most impressive team based on the schedule that they have played and the numbers that they have put up this season. Their only loss came at Ole Miss by a final of 17-23 back when the Rebels were healthy and one of the best teams in the country. After beating a tough Auburn team 55-44 last week, this game against Missouri will feel like a cake walk.

Alabama has arguably its best offense in school history. It is putting up 36.7 points and 487.1 yards per game on the season. Blake Sims has had a tremendous year at quarterback, and bounced back nicely from a slow start against Auburn last week to lead them back from a double-digit second half deficit. Sims is completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 275 yards and six scores.

While many consider the Crimson Tide to be down defensively this year, that simply has not been the case. They are giving up just 16.9 points and 312.0 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 29.5 points and 415 yards per game. They are holding their opponents to roughly 13 points and 103 yards per game less than their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense, and one that will shut down this suspect Missouri offense.

The Tigers, in my opinion, are the single-most overrated team in the entire country. There is no way they should be 10-2 right now when you consider they are only outgaining teams by an average of 34.4 yards per game.   To compare, Alabama outgains the opposition by 175.1 yards per game.  That's the sign of an elite team and one deserving of being in the SEC Championship.

The Tigers have simply been an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of opponent’s mistakes all year, but their luck runs out this week against the best team they have faced all season.  The second-best team they have played was easily Georgia, and they lost 34-0 to the Bulldogs at home on October 11th.

Missouri simply does not have the firepower offensively to do anything against this Alabama defense, which won’t allow it to keep up on the scoreboard. It ranks just 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 365.9 yards per game on the season. Maty Mauk is just an average quarterback who is completing 53.5 percent of his passes on the season. He will have one of the worst games of his career against this Alabama defense.

I look for this game to play out similarly to the 42-10 beat down the Crimson Tide put on the Tigers in their most recent meeting in 2012. They racked up 533 yards of offense while limiting the Tigers to just 129 total yards in the win. They outgained the Tigers by a whopping 404 total yards for the game. That contest was even played in Missouri, and this one will be in the Georgia Dome, where the Crimson Tide are used to being at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. Last year, Auburn beat Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship while outgaining the Tigers 677-534 for the game. This Alabama team is better than that Auburn team of a year ago, while this Missouri team isn’t as good as last year’s Tigers squad.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +21

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight will not play Saturday after missing the past two games with a head injury. He was knocked out of a 14-48 home loss to Baylor on November 8th and hasn’t returned since. The Sooners haven’t needed him in their last two games against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech (42-30 win) and Kansas (44-7 win), but they aren’t about to blow out Oklahoma State without Knight.

Backup Cody Thomas has been terrible in Knight’s place. He went 10-of-20 for 133 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against Texas Tech, and 3-of-13 for 39 yards without a touchdown or an interception against Kansas. The Sooners were able to get away with being one-dimensional against the Red Raiders and Jayhawks, but that won’t be the case against the Cowboys.  Thomas is completing just 41% of his passes on the season.

Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness this season has been its quarterback play. That’s why head coach Mike Gundy decided to make a switch prior to the Baylor game a couple weeks ago. Mason Rudolph played very well in a hostile atmosphere in Waco, throwing for 281 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 28-49 road loss as a 33-point underdog. Rudolph will get the start again Saturday, and I believe this offense will continue to perform better with him under center.  If they can stay within 21 points of Baylor on the road, which beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman, then they can stay within 21 of the Sooners on the road.

This Oklahoma defense has shown plenty of holes all season, especially in conference play. It is giving up 28.2 points and 414.5 yards per game against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s not the sign of an elite team as this defense has been overrated all season. The Sooners were the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and they have fallen flat on their faces. While the Sooners have nothing to play for at this point except perhaps a better bowl game, the Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State would consider its season a success if it were to beat Oklahoma to get bowl eligible. The Cowboys have played the Sooners very tough in recent years, and I expect that to continue in 2014. They beat the Sooners 44-10 at home in 2011, and each of their last three losses to the Sooners have come by 9 points or less, and by a combined 18 points total. They want revenge after the Sooners spoiled their bid to win the Big 12 with a 33-24 upset last year.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Oregon -13.5

The Oregon Ducks (11-1) want revenge on the Wildcats after losing their last two meetings. I believe this line would be much bigger had the Ducks won both of them, but since it’s not I feel we are getting a discount on them as less than two-touchdown favorites. They were favored by more than 20 points in their last two meetings with the Wildcats, which is a good indication that we are getting them at a discount here.

Oregon has been on a mission over the last two months since that 24-31 loss to the Wildcats. It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall, winning all seven games by 12 points or more, including five of those by 24 or more. It just cannot be stopped offensively right now as it has scored at least 42 points in all seven of those contests. If it gets to 42 in this game, that will be enough to win by two touchdowns or more.

The Ducks are putting up 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota came back for one more season to win a championship, and he's been the best leader this team could ask for. Mariota is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards with a ridiculous 36-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 636 yards and 11 scores while averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt this season.

Arizona has a strong offense as well, but the way that its defense has played all year gives it little chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Oregon squad. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 434.7 yards per game to rank 96th in the country in total defense. That’s not the stop unit of a championship-caliber team. The Wildcats have to feel fortunate just to make the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a win for them in itself.

Oregon has put up huge numbers on Arizona in all their recent meetings. It has put up at least 446 yards of total offense in each of the last eight meetings with Arizona, including 500-plus four times. I just believe that the Wildcats can do nothing to slow down this Oregon offense, and the only way the Ducks don’t cover is if they beat themselves like they did in the last two meetings. They aren’t likely to beat themselves a third straight time, especially not with the way they are playing right now.

Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. The Ducks are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Oregon is 12-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass. Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.  Take Oregon Friday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green +7

If this game was played last week, I have no doubt that this line would be a lot smaller than it is right now. Northern Illinois (10-2) is coming off a huge 31-21 win at Western Michigan as an 8-point underdog, while Bowling Green(7-5)  is coming off a 41-24 home loss to Ball State despite being a 10-point favorite. Before you are quick to judge those results, you must understand the mental make-up of the teams going into them.

Northern Illinois knew that a win would get it in the MAC Championship. Western Michigan knew that a win would not get it in because it had lost to Toledo earlier in the season, so the Rockets held the tiebreaker. Toledo was a 23-point favorite against Eastern Michigan last Friday and rolled to victory. So, the Broncos essentially knew that they would not be playing in the MAC Championship even with a win because Toledo wasn’t going to lose to EMU.

Bowling Green already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship a couple weeks ago. It knew that a loss to Ball State would have no bearing on whether or not it would be playing in the title game for a second straight year, and it simply did not show up last week. Ball State rolled to a 17-point victory that was of no consequence to the Falcons. The betting public is going to be quick to judge those results more than they should.

Now, we are getting the Falcons at a great value as 7-point underdogs in this game. I’m more interested in how this team played when it had something to play for, and a closer look at those results shows that this is a quality team. The Falcons went 5-1 during a six-game stretch from the end of September to early November. Their only loss was to Western Michigan, which is arguably the best team in the MAC. They had three wins by double-digits during that stretch, including a 27-10 win at Akron and a 31-13 win at Ohio.

This Bowling Green defense was really improving prior to the Ball State game, which again, we cannot count. It had allowed less than 400 yards in four consecutive games prior to Ball State. That includes just 388 total yards to a high-powered Toledo offense that averages 486.2 on the season. I really do believe the Falcons have the better defense in this one and are fully capable of slowing down this NIU offense.

Northern Illinois’ biggest weakness is its stop unit. It really hasn’t done a whole lot to stop anyone all season. It is giving up 24.2 points and 390.9 yards per game against teams that have averaged 22.8 points and 364 yards per game. So, it is allowing 1.4 points and 27 yards per game more than opposing offenses average on the season.

The Huskies will have their hands full against a Bowling Green offense that has really been impressive this year. It is putting up 30.8 points and 441.6 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 181 yards on the ground and 261 through the air. NIU averages 30.6 points and 433.3 yards per game, so I’d argue that Bowling Green actually has the better offense because it has played the tougher schedule this year.

In the MAC Championship Game last year, Bowling Green rolled to a 47-27 victory over NIU. It simply did whatever it wanted to against a weak NIU defense, amassing 574 total yards in the win. I know the Huskies will be out for revenge, but that’s not a big enough factor to be too concerned. The Huskies even have a worse defense this year than they did last year, and their offense isn’t nearly as strong with the loss of QB Jordan Lynch.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOWLING GREEN) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1992. Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Bowling Green is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Bet Bowling Green Friday.

15* Cowboys/Bears NFC Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Simply put, the Chicago Bears have nothing to play for at this point in the season, while the Cowboys have everything to play for. At 5-7, the Bears could win out and still not make the playoffs. They had their two-game winning streak halted with an ugly 17-point loss to the Lions last week, and since they failed to get back to .500, they realize that their chances of making the postseason are slim to none.  That realization will make it hard for them to get back up off the mat tonight.

While the Cowboys’ 23-point loss to the Eagles was concerning, I believe that was only a minor blip on the radar for this team. They’ll have no problem getting back up off the mat knowing that all of their goals are still in front of them. This is essentially a must-win game for them because they play three of their final four games on the road and cannot afford to fall to losing teams like the Bears. That motivational edge is the biggest reason as to why I’m siding with the Cowboys in this contest.

The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in road games, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.6 points per game in the process. They have beaten the Titans (26-10), Rams (34-31), Seahawks (30-23), Jaguars (31-17) and the Giants (31-28) away from home this year.

Now, they get to face a Chicago team that has not played well at home all season. It is just 2-3 in home games this year with ugly losses to Buffalo (20-23), Green Bay (17-38) and Miami (14-27). Its only two home wins came against lowly Minnesota (21-13) and Tampa Bay (21-13). It was even outgained by 163 yards against the Buccaneers and never should have won that game.

The Bears have been thoroughly dominated in the box score over their last six games. They have been outgained by at least 103 yards in five of their last six games overall. They were outgained by 205 yards in a 17-34 loss to the Lions, by 163 yards in that 21-13 win over Tampa Bay, by 140 yards in a 14-55 loss to Green Bay, by 103 yards in a 23-51 loss to New England, and by 169 yards in a 14-27 loss to Miami.

Dallas boasts an elite offense that is putting up 25.2 points and 376.8 yards per game on the season, including 30.4 points and 378.6 yards per game on the road. It should have its way with a Chicago defense that allows 28.1 points and 376.3 yards per game on the season. The Bears rank 31st in the league in scoring defense and 26th in total defense. They stand little chance of slowing down Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and company.

The Bears are 13-37 ATS in their last 50 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average at least 6.0 yards per play. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a loss by 21 or more points.  The Bears are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game.  Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Dallas.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

15* UCF/East Carolina AAC Thursday No-Brainer on UCF +6.5

The UCF Knights (8-3, 6-1 AAC) have a chance to clinch a share of the American Athletic Conference Title with a win Thursday. They sit at 6-1 within the conference, tied with Cincinnati and only one game behind Memphis (7-1). ECU (5-2 AAC) already has its fate sealed as it will not be able to win the conference. That motivational edge certainly favors the Knights and is a big factor as to why I’ll be siding with them Thursday night as 6.5-point road underdogs.

UCF has won eight of its last nine games overall coming into this one with each of its last four wins all combing by 16 points or more. The only exception was a fluke 29-37 loss at Connecticut back on November 1st in a game they dominated, but ultimately lost due to committing four turnovers. They outgained the Huskies by 102 yards in that contest and should have won.

In fact, the Knights have outgained each of their last five opponents by at least 95 yards. They outgained SMU by 374 yards in a 53-7 win, outgained Tulsa by 305 yards in a 31-7 win, and outgained Temple by 284 yards in a 34-14 win in their three most impressive performances during this stretch. They also outgained South Florida by 95 yards last week in a 16-0 road victory.

If you’re a fan of defense like I am, then you’ll love what you’ve seen from this UCF stop unit this season. The Knights are giving up just 16.8 points and 271.2 yards per game on the season, ranking 4th in the country in total defense. That includes 15.0 points and 258.9 yards per game in conference play. In their last three games, the Knights have allowed a measly 4.7 points and 172.3 yards per game. They have what it takes on this side of the ball to slow down this high-powered ECU offense.

ECU isn’t nearly as dominant defensively as UCF. It is giving up an average of 25.1 points and 364.9 yards per game on the season against teams who only average 21.9 points and 343 yards per game. It has allowed 30.7 points and 433.0 yards per game in its last three coming in. That includes 54 points and 586 yards to Cincinnati, and 32 points and 388 total yards to Tulsa.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) – off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. ECU is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  ECU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. The Pirates are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. ECU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.

UCF is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in Thursday games over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami -6.5

The New York Jets appear to have quit. Rex Ryan is a lame-duck coach who will be fired at season’s end. Their 38-3 loss to the Bills on Monday showed that they don’t have any fight left in them after a disastrous 2-9 start to the season. They keep going back and forth between quarterbacks and will give Geno Smith the start this week in place of Michael Vick. But, it really hasn’t mattered who is under center.

The Jets have rarely been competitive this season. They are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 points per game on the year. Their offense is a mess, scoring just 16.1 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense. I just don’t believe they have the firepower on this side of the ball to keep up with the Dolphins in this one.

Miami is even better than its 6-5 record would indicate this season. It has been playing some great football for a couple months now, going 5-3 in its last eight games overall with a chance to win in all five games. It suffered last-second losses to Green Bay (24-27) and Detroit (16-20), while also going toe-to-toe with Denver (36-39) on the road last week. I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they are elite.

The numbers really tell the story for the Dolphins. They are putting up 25.9 points per game this season while allowing just 19.9 points per game. They have been carried by a defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in allowing just 315.9 yards per game. That’s another reason why I don’t expect the Jets to be able to do anything offensively because they will be up against a similar defense like they were last week in Buffalo, which ranks 4th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between New York and Miami over the past two years. In fact, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings. Miami has won in blowout fashion in its last two trips to the Meadowlands. It won 23-3 on the road last year as a 1-point favorite, and 30-9 on the road in 2012 as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to New York.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on Monday night are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. The Jets are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 vs. excellent kickoff return teams that average more than 24 yards per return.

New York is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 per carry. It is expected to be without big defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson for this game, which will further hamper its run defense. The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents. The Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +10

The Washington Redskins (3-8) have not won any game that Robert Griffin III has started and completed this season. Well, the good news is that Colt McCoy is expected to replace Griffin III as the starter this week. He has played extremely well in limited action. In fact, the Redskins are 2-0 in games that McCoy has finished in place of Griffin III and Kirk Cousins.

McCoy replaced an injured Cousins midway through the Tennessee game and led the Redskins to a 19-17 victory. He went 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in the win. He played the full game against Dallas on Monday Night Football in their last win, a 20-17 (OT) thriller as a 9-point road underdog. McCoy completed a ridiculous 25-of-30 passes for 299 yards, while also rushing for 16 yards and a score to lead the Redskins to victory.  That makes him 36-of-42 passing in his last two games.

Certainly, Washington has little to play for at this point at 3-8, but McCoy could be the spark it needs to get back up off the mat this week. After all, the Redskins have clearly not quit as they only lost by three to Minnesota and by four to San Francisco in two of their last three losses. Griffin III has been the biggest culprit for the losses, but the numbers show that this is still a solid football team on both sides of the ball.

Indeed, the Redskins rank 9th in the league in yardage differential, actually outgaining teams by an average of 34.2 yards per game. A whopping 16 of the top 18 teams in yardage differential this season actually have winning records. The only exceptions are the Redskins and Saints (5th), who are both clearly much better than their records would indicate.

Washington ranks a respectable 11th in the league in total offense at 365.2 yards per game. It also ranks 10th in total defense, giving up just 331.0 yards per game. There is no way that with those numbers this team should be a 10-point underdog to the Colts this week. Six of the Redskins’ eight losses this season have come by 11 points or less. Asking Indianapolis to win by double-digits to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

The Colts rely heavily on the pass to move the football, and Washington is one of the best teams in the league at getting after the passer.  Andrew Luck was sacked five fumbles and had four fumbles against Washington last week.  The Redskins have an effective pass rush that ranks 14th in sacks (27.0) this season.  They have been very unfortunate to have only four picks on the season, and they rank 28th in turnover differential (-9), which is also unfortunate to this point.  They won't be turning it over with McCoy under center.

Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-31 (70.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Washington is 17-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game after eight-plus games since 1992. The Redskins are a perfect 13-0 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season since 1992. Washington is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -3

The Buffalo Bills (6-5) are certainly playing for their city and trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt right now. The Buffalo area got as much as eight feet of snow in a short span last week, causing several snow-related deaths. The Bills brought some joy to the area with their dominant 38-3 win over the Jets last week. They thoroughly dominated that game, outgaining the Jets by 118 yards in the win. Now, they get back home in front of their fans at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere as the Browns come to town.

Kyle Orton has injected new life into the offense. He has gone 4-3 as a starter for this team with his only three losses coming against playoff contenders in New England, Kansas City and Miami. He is completing 65.4 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Orton has seven TDs and no INTs in his last four games.  Unlike past Buffalo quarterbacks, he is not allowing the Bills to beat themselves with costly turnovers on offense.

That’s very important because when you have a defense like Buffalo does, you do not want the offense to blow games by committing turnovers. The reason the Bills have staying power is because of their D. They are giving up just 18.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the league in total defense at 312.3 yards per game.

Cleveland is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. It is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now, let alone a 7-4 mark. The numbers tell the story. The Browns rank just 16th in the NFL in yardage differential as they are actually getting outgained on the season. The reason they do not have staying power is their defense, which is ranks 20th in the NFL in giving up 367.1 yards per game.

I’ll gladly back the better defense any day.  Plus, you have to consider the injuries that the Browns are dealing with right now.  Starting safety Tashaun Gipson, who leads the NFL with six interceptions, went out with a knee injury against Atlanta last week and may not return this season.  DL Phillip Taylor, DE Armonty Bryant, and DE John Hughes are all out, while DL Ahtyba Rubin, LB Jamaal Sheard and LB Karlos Dansby are all questionable to play Sunday.

The Browns have put up the better numbers offensively this year, but they have also played the much easier schedule.  They are averaging 22.0 point and 367 yards per game against teams that allow 24.3 points and 371 yards per game, so they have simply benefited from playing against terrible opposing defenses. 

The Bills are averaging 21.6 points and 323 yards per game against teams that give up 21.9 points and 336 yards per game, so they have had to play a much more difficult slate of defenses.  Plus, Orton hasn't started all year, and the offense has been much better with him under center.

Cleveland hasn't been able to run the football very well, averaging 116 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  It relies mostly on the pass, averaging 251 passing yards per game.  That makes this a great matchup for the Bills, who rank 5th in the league against the pass at 213.8 yards per game.  They also lead the league with 46 sacks on the season, which is an astronomical number.  Brian Hoyer is going to be under duress all game as this Buffalo pass rush plays inspired football behind its home crowd.

Plays on favorites (BUFFALO) – after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games during Weeks 10 through 13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Buffalo is 43-25 ATS in its last 68 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Chargers +6.5

I believe the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) are overvalued coming into this one after their win over the Saints last week on Monday Night Football. That’s the same Saints team that is just 4-7 right now and has lost three straight at home coming in, and the Ravens were coming off their bye, so it was a good spot for them. It’s not the Saints team of year’s past that was a Super Bowl contender almost every year. Asking the Ravens to come back on a short week and beat the Chargers by a touchdown or more to cover this spread is asking too much.

San Diego (7-4) comes into this game undervalued because it has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and has shunned this team as a result, forcing oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be. Sure, the Chargers are coming off wins over the Rams and Raiders by a combined 10 points, but that’s nothing to be ashamed of. The Rams have beaten the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos lately, while the Raiders just knocked off the Chiefs last week.

The numbers indicate that the Chargers are still one of the better teams in the league. Their offense is putting up a respectable 22.3 points per game, but the biggest reason for their success has been their defense. The Chargers are only giving up 19.6 points and 330.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. The Ravens are a pedestrian 15th in total defense, giving up 352.9 yards per game.

The Chargers obviously rely heavily on Philip Rivers and the passing game. They are completing 67.8 percent of thheir passes for 248 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt against teams that are giving up 64.0% completions, 231 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.  They put up 410 yards on a very good St. Louis defense last week, including 282 passing.  Rivers went 29 of 35 passing for 291 yards.  Ryan Matthews returned from injury and rushed for 112 yards on just 12 carries.

That makes this a very good matchup for Rivers and company because the weakness of the Baltimore defense is against the pass. Indeed, the Ravens are giving up 65.7% completions, 265 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt this season. They rank 29th in the league against the pass.  They are also playing without their best cornerback in Jimmy Smith, who is on the IR with a foot injury.

Plays on road teams (SAN DIEGO) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

25* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +7

The St. Louis Rams should not be favored by a touchdown against any team in the NFL. They are getting way too much respect for their recent wins over some of the best teams in the NFL, which were all really flukes when you take a closer look at it. Sure, they have beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver in three of their last six games, but they’ve also been blown out by Kansas City (7-34) and Arizona (14-31).

You could make the argument that the Rams should have lost each of their last seven games. That’s because they have actually been outgained by 60 or more yards in all seven of those games. They have been outgained by a total of 780 yards in their last seven games, or by an average of 111.4 yards per game. That’s not a sign of a good team, and certainly not a team that should be favored by a touchdown against any other NFL squad.

The Oakland Raiders (1-10) have continued to fight despite their poor record, actually coming through with a profitable 6-5 ATS mark to this point. They finally got the payoff with a 24-20 home win over Kansas City last week in which they outgained the Chiefs by 38 yards in the win. While this could be a letdown spot, I don’t believe it will be. That’s because the Raiders have had ample time to rest and get over those emotions. They played the Chiefs last Thursday so they come into this game on three more days’ rest than St. Louis.

You could see a win coming for the Raiders when you follow how close they had been to getting one. While they have lost six of their last seven games, five of those losses came by 11 points or fewer. The only exception was a 17-41 loss to Denver in which they only trailed 13-10 late in the first half before getting blown out after intermission. They even went into Seattle and only lost by 6, and they also lost to San Diego twice by 7 and 3 points during this stretch.

Though the Raiders finally had something to show for their efforts, they'd made strides by being within a score in the fourth quarter in five of the first six games since Tony Sparano replaced the fired Dennis Allen on Sept. 29. Oakland didn't score more than 14 points in any of the first four under Allen but has averaged 17.9 and scored at least 24 three times for Sparano.

In my mind, these teams are very equal. The numbers show that as well as the Rams are getting outgained by 53.4 yards per game, while the Raiders are getting outgained by 77.3 yards per game. So, the Rams have a slight edge, and should be no more than 4-point favorites at home. They should be roughly a 1-point favorite on a neutral field. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown this week is simply asking too much.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off one or more straight overs, a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% of less. The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of the season vs. poor ball control teams that average 28 or less possession minutes per game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +5

The New Orleans Saints (4-7) clearly have not played up to their potential this season. However, there’s no question that they are much better than their record would indicate. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a combined six points. They have simply been unfortunate in close games. The good news is that they still have plenty to play for since they remain tied for first place in the NFC South.

The numbers certainly show that the Saints are better than their record. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 56.5 yards per game. In fact, of the top 18 teams in the league in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and Redskins, who are two of the most underrated teams in the league at this point in the season. I still believe the Saints are one of the better teams in the league.  What has hurt them is ranking 28th in turnover differential (-9), which has been bad luck as much as anything.

With an offense like the one the Saints boast, they have a chance to beat anyone. They are putting up 26.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 433.6 yards per game. Drew Brees hasn’t missed a beat this season despite all his critics. He is completing a ridiculous 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,491 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. He just recently got back Pierre Thomas from injury, who is his favorite outlet out of the backfield.

Pittsburgh has been tearing it up offensively as well this season, but it has been vulnerable on defense. It is giving up 23.9 points per game overall and 26.8 points per game at home. It has allowed 20 or more points in six consecutive games. It has given up 27 points to Cleveland, 27 to Tampa Bay, 31 to Cleveland, 34 to Indianapolis, and 24 to Tennessee, just to name a few of its poor performances on that side of the ball this year. It has allowed at least 19 points in 10 of its 11 games, and the only exception was Jacksonville, which sports the league's worst offense. It will give up another big number to this explosive Saints’ offense Sunday.

This will be a step up in competition for the Steelers, who have played the Jets and Titans in their last two games.  They lost to the Jets 20-13 on the road before squeaking out a come-from-behind victory over Tennessee (27-24) in their last game.  Ben Roethlisberger thre three interceptions, took seven sacks and hit just two passing plays of at least 25 yards while splitting those two games.

New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. While the Saints are 1-4 on the road this season, three of those losses came by 3 points or less. If they lose this game, there’s a good chance it will be by 4 points or less. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four Sunday games following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Utah State/Boise State Mountain West BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos will be playing for the right to go to the Mountain West Championship Game today.  The only reason that is possible is because Colorado State lost to Air Force yesterday, giving the Aggies hope.

Had the Rams won that game against Air Force, they would have had the tiebreaker over Utah State, and then the Aggies would have had nothing to play for but pride today.  I believe that win by the Falcons will be huge for Utah State's mental state heading into this one as they'll be charged up knowing they have a chance to get back to the MWC Title Game for a second straight year.

Utah State hasn't lost since that 13-16 road loss to Colorado State.  It has gone 5-0 since with all five victories coming by seven points or more, including four by 14 points or more.  I just really like the way that this team has been playing and the fact that it has one of the most underrated defenses in the country.

Indeed, the Aggies rank 1st in the Mountain West in scoring and total defense, giving up just 18.3 points and 351.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.9 points and 349.7 yards per game in conference play.  I will take good defense over good offense any day as Boise State ranks 1st in the conference in total offense.

However, it's not like the Aggies have been lacking on offense, either.  They are putting up 28.1 points per game on the season and 29.3 points per game in conference play.  This offense has been much sharper since stud freshman Kent Myers took over as the starting quarterback. 

He is completing a ridiculous 73.4 percent of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt.  Myers has also been their best dual-threat quarterback this season as he has added 192 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 6.2 per carry.  Most teams couldn't perform well when they were down to their fourth-string QB, but Myers has really been a diamond in the rough for the Aggies.

While Boise State has been great offensively this season, it has been horrible on the other side of the football.  It is giving up 28.4 points per game on the season, including a ridiculous 31.0 points per game in conference play.  That's really bad when you consider the Mountain West just isn't that good.

Utah State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game.  The Aggies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Utah State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS int he last seven meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Auburn/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -9

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) have been waiting for this game since last year. They want revenge on the Tigers from that crushing 34-28 defeat that sent Auburn to the SEC Championship. Now, a spot in the title game is at stake for the Crimson Tide this week, while the Tigers have no shot of playing in it. So, from a motivational perspective, there’s no question that the Crimson Tide have the edge heading into this one.

More importantly, Alabama is the better team. In fact, I believe it is the most complete team in the country. This is easily one of the best offenses in school history. The Crimson Tide are averaging 35.0 points and 482.4 yards per game against teams that give up 25.4 points and 393 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide have been dominant again this year. They are allowing just 14.5 points and 283.1 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 411 yards per game.

Auburn once again has an explosive offense that puts up 35.1 points and 476.8 yards per game. However, this is a terrible matchup for them because they rely primarily on the run to move the football. Alabama only gives up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Alabama’s ability to stop the run will be the difference in this one.

While the Tigers have a decent defense, it is nowhere near up to the caliber of Alabama’s stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 23.5 points and 375.6 yards per game on the season. They have given up at least 31 points five times this year.  They allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina, 34 to Georgia and 31 to Ole Miss. They lost three of those five games. Alabama is sure to hang a big number on this vulnerable Auburn defense as well.

Sure, Auburn has won two of the last six meetings in this series, but they shouldn’t have won either of those as they needed some late-game heroics to do so. Alabama outgained Auburn by 102 yards last year, by 320 yards in 2012, by 257 yards in 2011, by 119 yards in 2010, was outgained by 41 yards in 2009, and outgained the Tigers by 242 yards in 2008. As you can see, this really has been a one-sided series over the past six years when you take a closer look at the box scores.

Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off two home no-covers where it won straight up as a favorite. That’s another reason why this line is smaller than it should be because the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Alabama is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 33.3 points per game.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +14

This is Senior Night for Penn State, and I look for it to put forth one of its best performances of the season today at home against Michigan State.  Asking the Spartans to win by more than two touchdowns to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

While Penn State is just 6-5 this season, I would argue that this team is better than its record would indicate.  It has simply been unfortunate in close games.  Indeed, four of its five losses have come by 7 points or less, and by a combined 15 points..

The one close loss that really stands out that shows the Nittany Lions can play with the Buckeyes is the 24-31 home loss to Ohio State.  They lost that game in overtime and held the Buckeyes to just 293 total yards.  That's the same Ohio State team that went into Michigan State and won 49-37 as the Spartans allowed 568 total yards in the loss.

What gives Penn State a chance to hang around in this game is its superb defense.  It is only giving up 16.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 267.2 yards per game.  It has allowed 20 or fewer points in eight of its 11 games this season, and if it does that against Michigan State, it will have no problem covering this spread.

Penn State has played Michigan State very tough in recent years.  Indeed, it is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Spartans.  Its two losses during this stretch came by 6 and 4 points, so you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that the Nittany Lions lost to the Spartans by more than this spread of 14 points.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following one or more consecutive unders.  It is winning by 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games following a road loss.  Penn State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Penn State.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

15* Florida/Florida State Rivalry Play on Florida +7.5

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) have been overvalued all season after winning the BCS Championship last year. They created expectations for themselves that they simply could not live up to, especially from the betting public and the oddsmakers. Despite going 11-0 to this point, they have gone a woeful 3-8 against the spread. They have won five games this season by six points or less and are extremely fortunate to remain undefeated.

Asking the Seminoles to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread against rival Florida is asking too much. They have beaten worse teams by less. Their five wins by six points or less have come against Oklahoma State (37-31), Clemson (23-17), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26) and Boston College (20-17).

They also failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel (37-12), as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State (56-41), as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse (38-20), and as a 21-point favorite against Virginia (34-20). As you can see, several teams that aren’t as good as Florida have played the Seminoles very tough this season.

Yes, the Gators have lost four games this season, but those four losses have come against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Missouri and South Carolina. They were only blown out twice as the 21-42 loss at Alabama was a legitimate blowout, but the 13-42 loss to Missouri wasn’t. They actually held the Tigers to just 119 total yards but committed six turnovers and gave up several non-offensive touchdowns in a fluke blowout. Their losses to LSU (27-30) and South Carolina (20-23) came by three points each.

Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Treon Harris as the starting quarterback. He returned as a starter against Georgia and led Florida to a 38-20 road victory. They also beat Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road, lost to South Carolina in overtime, and beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3.

Harris has thrown six touchdowns against one interception while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 250 yards and three scores in limited action.  To compare, Jeff Driskel only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt before being replaced to Harris.  Both the passing game and the running game have gotten a boost with Harris under center.  The Gators have rushed for 214-plus yards in three of their last four games and will use Boston College's blueprint from last week to run the ball and control the time of possession.

While Harris certainly has given the offense a huge boost, the biggest reason the Gators have a chance to not only cover but win this game outright is their defense. Will Muschamp has an elite stop unit that is giving up just 20.9 points and 308.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Florida State has been more vulnerable on that side of the ball, allowing 379.2 yards per game to rank 55th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team has won each of the last three meetings while going 3-0 ATS. Florida won its last trip to Tallahassee by a final of 37-26 as a 7-point underdog in 2012. It has actually gone 4-1 straight up in its last five road games against Florida State. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are 3-1 straight up on the road this season with their only loss coming at Alabama.  Take Florida Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl Beat Down on Mississippi State -2.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) need one more win to likely get them into the college football playoff. I believe they get that victory Saturday in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3). Getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly a gift from the oddsmakers in this one. These teams are headed in opposite directions right now.

Mississippi State has arguably been the best team in the SEC all season. Its only loss came on the road by a final of 20-25 at Alabama as a 10-point underdog. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings, so going into Tuscaloosa and only losing by five points shows that the Bulldogs can play with anyone. They have also beaten the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU among others within the SEC.

This is really more of a fade against Ole Miss than anything. The Rebels have had their dreams of winning the SEC crushed in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. They fell 7-10 at LSU, 31-35 at home against Auburn, and then appeared to quit in a 0-30 loss at Arkansas last week. I know this is a rivalry game, but I really do not like the mental state of the Rebels at all heading into this game. They just don’t have nearly as much to play for as the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss’ downfall coincided with the loss of its two best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche suffered a broken ankle in late October and is out for the season. Wide receiver Laquan Treadwell suffered a broken leg in the closing seconds against Auburn and is also out for the rest of the year. Nkemdiche was their enforcer at middle linebacker, while Treadweall was their top playmaker on offense at receiver.

Both teams feature solid defenses as the Bulldogs are giving up 18.4 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 13.5 per game. The difference in this game is going to be Mississippi State’s offense, which has been unstoppable in averaging 39.0 points and 511.7 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 248 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Ole Miss only averages 435.5 yards per game and has been much less explosive here of late. It is averaging just 12.7 points per game in its last three SEC games, and was shut out in its first SEC game without Treadwell against Arkansas.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) – off one or more consecutive unders, good offensive team – scoring 31 or more points/game are 72-28 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Ole Miss is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 November games.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Georgia Rivalry Play on Georgia Tech +12

The Georgia Bulldogs are deflated right now.  They needed Missouri to lose to Arkansas yesterday to earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game.  The Tigers came from behind and won, meaning they will be going to the SEC Championship for a second straight year, while the Bulldogs will be watching from home.

While this game against Georgia Tech was going to have no bearing on Georgia's SEC Championship hopes, it's certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs won't be in a good state of mind because of yesterday's result by Missouri.

Georgia Tech (9-2), meanwhile, is in a great state of mind knowing that it will be playing Florida State in the ACC Championship next week.  It also wants revenge from a tough 34-41 (OT) loss to Georgia last year.  It blew a 20-7 halftime lead in that game and will certainly be licking its chops at a chance at revenge.

The Yellow Jackets also come into this game as the fresher team.  They are coming off their bye week after dismantling Clemson 28-6 back on November 15th.  They have been playing some tremendous football of late that will give them the confidence they need to try and pull off the upset in this one.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with all four wins coming by 22 or more points.  They won at Pitt 56-28 as a 4-point underdog, beat Virginia 35-10 as a 4-point home favorite, beat NC State 56-23 as a 3-point road favorite, and topped Clemson 28-6 as a 2-point home dog.  It's also worth noting that both of Georgia Tech's losses this year came by 6 points or less.

I would argue that this is the best team that Paul Johnson has had at Georgia Tech, and that's saying a lot considering this team has won the ACC Championship in his time here.  The biggest reason for that is the play of quarterback Justin Thomas.

Thomas leads an offense that puts up 37.8 points and 469.6 yards per game this season.  He leads the team in rushing (827 yards, 5 TD, 5.4/carry), but the difference has been his passing.  He has thrown for 1,396 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

This Georgia Tech defense has really stepped up its play this year as well, allowing a respectable 24.1 points per game on the year.  They have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets allowed just 6 points and 190 total yards to Clemson last time out.

Georgia has been extremely vulnerable against the run here of late, allowing an average of 243.0 yards per game in their last four games.  They gave up a whopping 418 yards to Florida in a 20-38 loss.  This Georgia Tech triple-option attack should have plenty of success, just as it did last year when it racked up 34 points and 495 total yards against Georgia.

Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 75%.  The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Georgia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

I just love Kentucky's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It sits at 5-6 on the season, so it will be motivated for a win to get to its first bowl game since 2010.  It also comes in on two weeks' rest after playing its last game on November 15th against Tennessee.

I hate Louisville's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It is coming off a taxing 31-28 win at Notre Dame last week that took a lot out of the Cardinals emotionally.  That makes this a huge letdown spot for them off such a big win in South Bend.

Kentucky absolutely cannot wait to get away from the tough SEC slate they've been up against during their current five-game losing streak.  Their last five games have come against LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee with three of those on the road.  This bye week could not have come at a better time after that gauntlet.

This is the best Kentucky team that we've seen in years.  A big reason for that is the play of former Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles at quarterback.  He leads a Kentucky offense that is putting up 28.2 points per game this season.  Towles is completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 293 yards and six scores.

The Wildcats also will be motivated for revenge following three consecutive losses to the Cardinals in this series.  They have only lost to Louisville by more than 13 points twice in their last seven meetings, and even those were competitive as they lost by 14 points last year and by 18 in 2012.  This is easily the best Kentucky team that Louisville has faced since at least 2010.  The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

"We've got a lot to play for," Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. "Guys are excited and energized. It's been a good, tough stretch against some quality teams."

"I think a win this weekend would do an awful lot for these players," Stoops said. "I think they deserve it. They put in the work. They've put in the time, they care and they deserve to win and have that taste of success and that taste of a bowl game."

Plays on a road team (KENTUCKY) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS after outrushing its last opponents by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* WKU/Marshall Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky +24

I faded Marshall with success last week as they only beat UAB 23-18 on the road as an 18-point favorite.  I will be fading them for many of the same reasons as last week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 11-0 straight up and 7-3 ATS records on the season.

The betting public has been quick to back Marshall because they have covered so many big spreads this year.  But, they have played such a soft schedule up to this point that it's almost a joke.  Their last game against UAB was the toughest opponent that they have played up to this point, and they barely won.

The other 10 wins have come against Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio, Akron, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, FIU, FAU, Southern Miss and Rice.  If that's not a cupcake schedule, I don't know what is.  Now, like UAB, they play another opponent capable of putting up a fight this week.

Western Kentucky (6-5) comes in playing its best football of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last three games overall.  It beat UTEP 35-27 to start the streak, dominated Army 52-24 while outgaining the Black Knights by 228 yards, and dominated UTSA 45-7 while outgaining the Roadrunners by 232 yards.

The thing you have to like about the Hilltoppers is that they can score with anyone, so they are capable of keeping up with the Thundering Herd.  They average a whopping 41.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the country in total offense at 508.1 yards per game.  Marshall averages 44.9 points per game to compare.

Plus, you have to consider that the Hilltoppers have played the tougher schedule.  Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has been brilliant, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,853 yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions this year.  He would love nothing more than to knock off Marshall in the final regular season game of his career.

However, the Hilltoppers are no one-trick pony.  They have proven fully capable of moving the ball on the ground behind the outstanding play of running back Leon Allen, who has rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Anthony Wales (423 yards, 4 TD, 6.2/carry) has been a nice compliment to him.

Western Kentucky is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Hilltoppers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers both blew their chances at getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with losses last week.  Now, they both look to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing losses and to finish the regular season with one final victory.

I like Iowa's chances of getting up off the mat a lot more because its loss wasn't as crushing because it was expected to lose, while Nebraska was expected to win.  Nebraska lost at home to Minnesota 24-28 as an 8.5-point favorite, while Iowa lost at home to Wisconsin 24-26 as an 8.5-point underdog.

The Cornhuskers were coming off a 24-59 loss at Wisconsin the previous week, and I don't believe they will care a whole lot about winning this final game of the season.  Iowa has showed some fight and I like it's mental state much better, especially considering this is Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.  That will be motivation enough to get back up off the mat.

Iowa has played very well at home in Big Ten play.  It has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home within the conference with blowout wins over Indiana (45-29) and Northwestern (48-7) as well as that 2-point loss to Wisconsin (24-26).

I really like what I've seen from this Iowa offense that last two weeks to compliment a very good defense.  The Hawkeyes put up 587 total yards in their 30-14 win at Illinois two weeks ago, limiting the Illini to just 235 total yards in the process.  They also racked up 412 total yards against a very good Wisconsin defense last week.

Nebraska only managed 180 total yards in its 24-59 loss to Wisconsin.  It gave up 581 rushing yards in that game, and then followed it up by giving up 281 rushing yards to Minnesota last week.  Iowa is a team that loves to run the football as it has rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of its 11 games this season.  The Hawkeyes should have a big day on the ground and get continued solid play from QB Jake Rudock.

Iowa went into Nebraska last year and beat the Huskers 38-17.  The Huskers were in a similar position in that game as they knew they would not be going to the Big Ten Championship.  That is the case again this season, and I don't expect the Huskers to put up much of a fight at all.  They are also battling a ton of key injuries right now that will hamper their chances.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game.  The Hawkeyes are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Iowa is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 vs. great offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* NIU/WMU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +7.5

There are three teams tied atop the MAC West standings with 6-1 records with a chance to play in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green next week.  Two of them square off today in Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, while the other is Toledo.

It's almost a given that Northern Illinois or Toledo will advance.  That's because Toledo plays cupcake Eastern Michigan today and is listed as a 23-point favorite.  It will surely win that game.  Toledo would make it with a Western Michigan win against Northern Illinois.

The only way that Western Michigan will be going to the championship game is if it wins today and Toledo loses, so that is almost out of the question.  The players know that a Toledo loss is unlikely, so they have that in the back of their heads and probably feel defeated right now.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, gets into the MAC Championship with a win.  It has a head-to-head win over Toledo so it would own the tiebreaker, while WMU lost to Toledo and would lose that tiebreaker.  So, from a motivational perspective, you do not want your money on Western Michigan, but you want it on NIU given the situation.

Western Michigan is way overvalued in this game given the circumstances.  But the biggest reason it is overvalued is the fact that it has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.  The betting public has taken notice and has jumped on them, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

NIU is a perennial MAC Championship Contender that has been to the title game in four consecutive seasons, winning two of them.  So, they are used to being in this spot, but it wasn't a given this year.  This team has come out and earned it by going 9-2 this season despite many picking them to finish outside of 1st place.

What has been most impressive about NIU is its ability to overcome the losses of stud quarterbacks in recent years.  It is still putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game this season, including 251 rushing and 5.0 per carry. 

Quarterback Drew Hare has been an absolute stud, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, while also rushing for 754 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.2 per carry.

Western Michigan has played one of the softest schedules you can imagine, which is the biggest reason for its 8-3 record.  It has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Purdue (34-43), Virginia Tech (17-35) and Toledo (19-20).  I would argue that NIU is the best team that it has faced up to this point.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.  It is coming back to win these games by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Another thing you have to like about the Huskies is that they last played on November 18th, while WMU last played on November 22nd.  That's an extra four days of rest for the Huskies compared to the Broncos.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.