Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-21 | Duke -2.5 v. Ohio State | 66-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Duke/Ohio State 9:30: There's always a chance of a letdown by a team after a huge win; after all, Duke took out top ranked Gonzaga in Las Vegas on Friday 84-81 to surge to #1. OSU will surely be hungry to knock them off but unlikely. Coach K, in his final season, will have his guys even keeled and well prepared. He's got a great mix of experienced talent including captain - Wendell Moore Jr., Roach and Williams to blend with super freshman - Banchero. And the Blue Devils are far more disciplined on both sides of the floor at this stage; for example, Duke is 2nd in the nation in fouls per possession while OSU ranks 234th; moreover, Buckeyes turned the ball over 17 times resulting in 23 points vs Florida. Duke forced #1 Gonzaga into 17 turnovers on Friday. Duke is 21st in nation in forcing turnovers. And the crowd surely won't sway Duke. They delivered on Friday in front of 20,400! We'll grab the Blue Devils. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Washington 8:15: Lots of bad news in the press on the Seahawks: riddled by injuries, Russ Wilson not in rhythm with receivers, defense struggling to make plays. Pete Carroll will have none of it. He's looking at going 7-0 down the stretch to make playoffs. I won't bet against him. Carroll is 14-2 ATS off back-to-back losses and the undisputed king of NFL coaches in Prime Time. Seattle a sweet 11-3 SU on MNF. Worried about the Seahawks going to the Eastern Time Zone? Seahawks a sweet 14-2 SU the last 16 with Carroll in that situation. Washington a money burning 5-12 as a home favorite on MNF and just 1-4 ATS in their last 4 at home. We'll grab the Seahawks. |
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11-28-21 | Rams v. Packers +2 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Rams/Packers 4:25: Rams getting a bit too much credit by the odds-makers here. Sure, they're coming off a bye week and heavily determined to bounce back off two straight losses. Yet, the underachieving Rams control a mediocre defense given all the talent. Their defensive unit got worked at home vs Tennessee and embarrassed on Monday Night in San Francisco. Today, it's not going to get easier vs Aaron Rodgers and company on the near frozen tundra in Green Bay with the projected forecast at 35 degrees game time. Warm weathered Rams had difficulty on the West Coast in its last two games. Sure, Rodgers' toe is broken but it didn't stop him from dropping 385 yards passing with 4 TDs at Minnesota last week. And even if RB Aaron Jones is unable to go, AJ Dillon is an equally effective back. Packers covered 6 straight in this series and I expect a 7th. |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
Chargers/Broncos 4:05: I know the Chargers are the sexy pick here; however, this series has been decided by 3 points or less over the last 3 meetings, including 19-16 Chargers win in Carson, CA last year. Denver, 15-7-1 ATS off a bye week; moreover, 15-2 ATS off a bye off SU loss. They had a week to stew over sluggish home performance vs Philadelphia. Fangio's boys 9-3 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss. Denver had that extra week to heal up a beat up offensive line that's still missing guys but should be able to control the line of scrimmage; after all, Chargers' DT Joseph (Covid19) is out on a defensive front that's part of allowing a generous 145 YPG (32nd in the NFL!). Should allow Melvin Gordon III to make up for that late fumble on the 14th. And C Asante Samuel will be missed as Denver not short on playmakers in space: Sutton, Jeudy and Patrick all healthy and should help QB Bridgewater visit the end zone. Defensively, edge rushing extraordinaire - Bradley Chubb is off the IR and ready to give QB Herbert fits. Denver a sweet 9-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points should deliver here. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3 | 38-31 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Bucs/Colts 1:00: Bucs coming off a big MNF win to get back their MOJO after a two game slide; however, that was at home, now they fly to Indianapolis on a short week, and without their starting LG Marpet (out). Meanwhile, Colts coming off a huge win last week at Buffalo as a 7 point dog. Their run game is cooking as RB Jonathon Taylor gashed a very good Buffalo run-stop-unit. Sure, they face the #1 run-stop-unit in the NFL today and get back NT Vita Vea but Indianapolis' offensive line is much better than the Giants' offensive line. And Wentz is at his best, like any solid quarterback in the NFL, when that run game is working. With TY Hilton healthy with his skill teammates Pittman Jr., reserve RB Hines, and even Pascal, there is more than enough quality offense to work the thin TB secondary. And don't discount the Indy defense. They're an opportunistic bunch led by All-Pro LB Darius Leonard. TB just 5-15-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+, 0-6 ATS as a road favorite. Colts a dangerous 4-0 ATS as a dog and we'll grab them here! |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -6.5 | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Titans/Patriots 1:00: Titans a dangerous dog but limited in skill personnel for interception prone Tannehill. The Titans already without WR Julio Jones and RB Derrick Henry, now won't have A.J. Brown (on IR). That leaves the Titans going deep on their bench to go against the premier secondary in the NFL that's playing exceptionally well. Tannehill, who threw 4 INTs last week, should have an even more difficult time with the well disciplined Patriots' defense. On the other hand, Titans' defense riddled with injuries and facing a well oiled offensive machine with QB Mac Jones and company. No question that Belichick is still fuming inside losing to Vrabel in the playoffs two seasons ago in the playoffs on January 4th 2020 in Foxborough with Tom Brady. We'll look for the master to teach his disciple a lesson today. Patriots 40-15 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards, and 21-8 off a win by 14+. New England the call. |
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11-27-21 | Clemson -11.5 v. South Carolina | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
11-27-21 | Florida State +3 v. Florida | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State -7 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-27-21 | Maryland v. Rutgers +2 | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. NC State | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
North Carolina/NC State 7:00: North Carolina has been an underachiever this year. The Tar Heels were a Pre-Season Top 10 selection with some having them as a possible BCS team. And although they have 5 losses, only one of them was bad (Georgia Tech). Mack Brown teams stay in games and always dangerous as a dog. Tonight, no different. Brown and North Carolina can play the spoiler and knock its in-state rival out of the ACC Championship game. NC has covered 4 straight in this series, present an explosive offense with QB Sam Howell (probable) and his multitude of weapons. Sure, defensively the Tar Heels give up points. However, their offense is hard to stop. And yes, Tar Heels have struggled on the road but remember, Chapel Hill is a mere 30 minute ride down the 1 40E to Raleigh. Wolfpack just 1-6 ATS off a SU win of 20+. With the road team 6-2 SU in this series, take the Tar Heels and the points. |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | 35-13 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/East Carolina 3:30: If Cincinnati thinks they're going into Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to blow out the Pirates like they did in Cincinnati, they have another thing coming. East Carolina is a veteran team that's well balanced on both sides of the ball. Offensively, QB Ahlers has progressively gotten better each year as a four year starter. He has a solid line and really good skill player support in versatile RB Keaton Mitchell and receivers C.J. Johnson and Tyler Snead. Last time the Bearcats visited Greenville, Ahlers lit their secondary up for 535 yard and 4 TDs in a 43-46 loss as a 24' dog. Last season, turnovers did them in at Cincinnati as the Bearcats capitalized on them quickly. Defensively, the Pirates are no longer a welcome mat like they were under Scottie Mongomery. They've shored up their defense in two years and now bring an opportunistic (13 takeaways) veteran defense to the field. East Carolina a dangerous 8-1 ATS vs teams above .500, 8-1 ATS vs conference foes, and 5-0-1 as a dog. Bearcats 0-7 ATS as conference favorites vs a greater than .500 team off ATS win. We'll grab the two TDs here with the home team. |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
Iowa/Nebraska 1:30: Nebraska showing progress in every category except the scoreboard. They're in virtually every game covering their last two, including dropping 351 yards passing on a stingy Wisconsin defense. And in this series, Frost's Cornhuskers have covered the last 3 but lost SU. We'll look for Frost to finally get his team in the SU win column here. Iowa has lost the statistical battle in their last 5 games and went 1-4 ATS during that frame. Iowa defense not what it was earlier in the season. Nebraska QB Martinez has been around for the entire Frost era and we'll look for him to go out with a win here. Nebraska the call. |
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11-26-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Central Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Central Michigan Noon: Michigan MAC Title on the line and we'll grab the Eagles. EMU looking for their first 8 win season since 1987 and they should make a solid run for the money here. EMU HC Chris Creighton has done a great job building this program and this would do wonders for his recruiting efforts going forward. The Eagles got their run game going with Jawon Hamilton (187 yards vs Western Michigan) on the 16th and we'll see the carry over effect here. Sure, CM has been rolling teams the last three weeks but don't discard the Eagles. They stick around in games. Eagles a sweet 21-6 ATS as a road dog, 13-4-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. And they're a sweet 8-0 ATS as a weekday road dog. Eagles looking to avenge last year's 31-23 home loss should keep this one tight. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Bills/Saints 8:20: See a defensive battle here. Saints' offense stuck in neutral without any playmakers (Kamara and Michael Thomas out). Should see versatile Taysom Hill manage the offense but limited with skill support. And Buffalo #1 defense (total yards) stewing after allowing Jonathon Taylor to run all over them. Bills 1-8 O/U off SU loss and 2-5 O/U off double-digit loss at home. Buffalo offense lackluster lately without a run game. New Orleans' defense, which is #3 vs the run, was also embarrassed last week as the Eagles ran roughshod on them. Saints' Cam Jordan and company should buckle down here. Saints 4-9 O/U after allowing more than 350 yards, and 0-9 O/U on Thursdays. We'll stay "under". |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys -7.5 | 36-33 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Raiders/Cowboys 4:30: Cowboys are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and covered 6 of their last 7 at home. I expect the Cowboys to come out firing on all cylinders here; after all, they get their starting LT Tyron Smith back and that's big news protecting Prescott's backside. And leading receiver Lamb (concussion protocol) should be good to go. Raiders' defense was very yielding to Joe Mixon last week. Look for Pollard to eat lots of field turf today to set Prescott up for play action. On the other hand, Raiders starting their late season collapse again as they seem direction-less under interim HC Bisaccia. Over the last two weeks, Raiders' offense on 3rd down attempts went 1 for 7 and 1 for 9, respectively. We'll look for the Dallas defense to step up its game today. Cowboys the call. |
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11-25-21 | Fresno State v. San Jose State UNDER 52.5 | 40-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Fresno State/San Jose State 3:30: Both teams have something on the line for them here besides the Valley Trophy. Fresno can with the Mountain Division title with a win and a loss by San Diego State on Friday. San Jose State needs a win to be bowl eligible. I'm going to look for a defensive battle. Since 2016, the last 4 in this series have gone "under" scoring a combined 30, 37, 44 and 33, respectively. San Jose State ranks 106th offensively. QB Nick Starkel missed October with a collar bone injury and is struggling on account of no run game and limited help from skill personnel. Starkel's completing just 52.9% of his passes. Fresno has a solid defense ranked 32nd in the nation in points allowed (21.3 PPG). On the other hand, Fresno offense solid but Spartans' defense a scrappy bunch that keeps them in games. Spartans 0-4 O/U as a home dog. We'll stay "under". |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Northern Illinois 7:00: Northern Illinois clinched the MAC West title last week at Buffalo and they can't help taking a peak into next week's MAC Championship Game. As for Western Michigan, a team with enough wins for a bowl game but could use another win to clearly get off the bubble. The thing about Western Michigan is they've underachieved. The Broncos have outgained every single opponent this year yet sit one game above .500. Remember, these Broncos upset Pittsburgh back on September 18th. Their defense is pretty solid (34th in Total Yardage) and sport an explosive offense with a 1000+ yard rusher in Sean Tyler, versatile QB Eleby, and a very good receiving corps including 1000+ yard receiver Skyy Moore. That doesn't match up well with NIU's defense which has struggled vs the run (allow 5.7 YPC), difficulty sacking QB (1.1 per game), and allow a generous 33 PPG. Huskies have a quality QB in Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi but he is at his best when the run game is cooking. WM plays the run pretty well and can bring QB pressure (3 sacks per game). NIU may even rest some starters here. Huskies just 1-3-1 ATS as a home dog, 1-4 ATS on Tuesday. Tonight, we'll look for NIU's luck to run out as Western Michigan cleans up their game and delivers. |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Giants/Bucs 8:15: At first glance, seems like the Giants could be a big play here; after all, they're a ridiculous 20-6 ATS as a road dog, covered 5 of last 7 on MNF, traded blow for blow with TB last season on November 2nd in a 25-23 loss as a 13 point home dog, and they're a ridiculous 12-1 ATS as a conference road dog of 5 or more points. Furthermore, they're coming off a bye-week which offers a huge advantage this time of year to rest and heal. And remember, explosive RB Barkley makes his return, dominant WR Golladay finally should be showcased against an inferior TB secondary that's been scorched the last few weeks. And hard studying Daniel Jones should be prepared under the tutelage of OC Garrett. And defensively, DC Patrick Graham had a solid plan in check last year to successfully disrupt Brady and company for about 57 minutes. But hold everything. After a further look, the Buccaneers have been crushing teams at home and a pissed off Brady is not one to go against off two straight losses; after all, he's 51-15 SU off a loss. As a Giants' backer, however, Brady won't have vertical threat Antonio Brown (ankle) for explosive scores. Bad news for the G Men is that TE Gronk (ribs) should be back. Defensively, however, TB secondary has issues, 350 pound NT beast Vita Vea (knee) is doubtful, and Richard Sheman is on the IR with other important TB secondary cogs. Technically, TB just 1-5 ATS on MNF. Giants should stay in this one. |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Ravens/Bears 1:00: Ravens, already decimated by injuries, had their QB Jackson under the weather for most of the week. He did practice with team Friday and that surely influenced the line. We'll grab the near TD with the home team here. Bears showed some moxie at Pittsburgh November 8th as the run game averaged 5 YPC and Fields threw for 278 yards. Baltimore is the worst pass defense in the NFL. They already lost C Marcus Peters and will be without S Deshone Elliot. The Bears are coming off their bye week and that's always a plus this time of year. Defensively, Bears won't have Mack (out for season) but still have a solid defense led by LB Roquan Smith. Bears are an amazing 15-1 ATS as a home dog of more than 4 points off back-to-back losses. And Chicago sports an 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS mark in their last 8 games vs AFC North opponents. We'll grab the points and the Bears. |
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11-21-21 | Washington Football Team +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
Washington/Carolina 1:00: Lots of hype on the return of Cam Newton as the starter. Sure, he ignited a spark as a gadget player around the goal line last week en-route to an easy win over Arizona; however, inserting him as a starter after several years away with a new coaching staff, including a new OC, is a tall order. Washington defense has underachieved this year and Chase Young's season ending injury hurts but they stepped up last week vs the incumbent champs and definitely capable of delivering today. Washington's HC Rivera, who was fired after the 2019 season, is eager to not only revenge last year's 20-13 loss at home but to stick it to the franchise that let him go. Washington defense improving and starting to become the defense they were projected to be in pre-season. DC Del-Rio will have a solid game plan this week to limit McCaffery and keep the heat on Newton. Offensively, Washington should have Curtis Samuel back to add to a respectable receiving corps for QB Taylor Heinicke. Technically, Washington is 4-1 ATS in Week 11, 10-4 ATS off a SU win, and 9-1 ATS off a SU dog win. Carolina 4-12 ATS at home, 1-6 ATS as home chalk, and 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of more than 1 point vs a less than .500 opponent. With Washington 5-2 ATS at Carolina, we'll grab the points with the road team. |
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11-21-21 | Saints +3 v. Eagles | Top | 29-40 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Saints/Eagles 1:00: Not sold on the Eagles and don't give up on the Saints. Eagles coming off a comfortable win over the Broncos in what was perhaps their most complete game of the year. Eagles a young team and with youth comes inconsistency. Saints have a veteran team, winning culture and lots of pride. After last year's losing effort, in a game in which the Eagles ran all over them, the Saints' #1 run stop unit in the NFL should show up big and take away what Philly does best - run the rock. On the other hand, Saints no longer the explosive offense now that Brees has departed, but Siemian is tutored well under Sean Payton. Siemian has been an efficient passer with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions in his 3 games. Deonte Harris has emerged as his go to guy and Mark Ingram II is capable of keeping the run game going. Eagles are a poor 1-5 ATS as home chalk, and 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games. Saints are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and a sweet 24-8 ATS as a road dog. Other than the disastrous September 19th game at Carolina (my Top Play that week), the Saints have been competitive in every game this season. Today, they deliver. |
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11-21-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Bills | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Colts/Bills 1:00: Revenge game for the Colts. They've had plenty of time to stew over their 27-24 loss at Buffalo last January in the AFC Wild Card. Although the defense is down a few notches from last year, the Colts are in a better place as a team than a year ago. They've won 4 of their last 5 and covered 5 of their last 7. Wentz has settled in as a solid signal caller, especially on the road (4) where he's thrown for 974 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs. He's got a solid supporting cast, including a pretty healthy offensive line now that LG Quenton Nelson is back. Jonathon Taylor is averaging 6.9 YPC with 7 TDs in his last 5 games. And with T.Y. Hilton back in the fray, Wentz has a great variety of targets to go to in Pittman, Pascal, TE Doyle and versatile backs Hines and Taylor. On the other hand, Colts defense down a notch from last year but making plays. And hopefully All-Pro linebacker Leonard (ankle) is good to go. Colts are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road and sport a solid 17-8-1 ATS November ledger. We'll take the points. |
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11-20-21 | Florida v. Missouri OVER 69 | 23-24 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Florida/Missouri 4:00: This series has historically been "under" in recent years but I'm going "over" today. Florida's defense has been abysmal to put it mildly. They've given up 49, 34, 40 and 52 over the last 4 weeks, respectively. The 52 was given up to subdivision lightweight Samford. And Florida knows their defense is in bad shape when their leading tackler last week was their safety (Rashad Torrence) with 11 tackles! Weeks earlier Mullen fired his DC and is searching for answers. It won't happen against Missouri. The Tigers' offense is led by a 1500+ rusher in Tyler Badie who should add to his season TD total (16). Missouri, on the other hand, can't stop the run. They give up nearly 250 YPG. And you know Mullen loves to run the rock. He has a versatile QB in Emory Jones that fuels a potent offense. Florida is 12-4 O/U on the road, 5-2 O/U in November, and 12-5 O/U after allowing 450+ yards. Missouri has gone 4-1 O/U in last 5 home games, and they're on a 7-2 O/U run. "Over" the call. |
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11-20-21 | Syracuse +11.5 v. NC State | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Syracuse/NC State 4:00: Good value with a Syracuse team that last week got ambushed early at Louisville and couldn't recover. But not so fast in dismissing the Orange; after all, they're 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-1 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Orange have the #1 run game in the ACC with 1300+ yard rusher Sean Tucker and versatile QB Garrett Shrader who between them have 24 rushing TDs. And when the run game is going, Schrader can get into a groove passing. Defensively, they have a Top 25 defense that can get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game). NC State is coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to Wake Forest in a game they expended everything in the tank on. Wolfpack just 2-6 ATS after scoring 40+ and 3-9 ATS in November. 'Cuse needs 1 win to be bowl eligible and with Pittsburgh on deck, Syracuse should leave it all on the field in this revenge game. This series is competitive and the road dog is 4-1 ATS. Go Orange! |
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11-20-21 | Michigan -14.5 v. Maryland | 59-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan/Maryland 3:30: MD, as expected, freefalling under Locksley - who has loads of 5* recruits but can't do anything with them. Terps on a 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS slide. And the Terps don't match up against the physical style of play of the Wolverines. When Michigan wins the run game battle, they usually win and cover (yes, including at Wisconsin) as exhibited in every game this year. They failed at MSU and Rutgers - although won SU vs the Scarlet Knights. Highly unlikely the weak run game of Maryland will put a dent in the Wolverines' tough run stop unit. Sure, RB Blake Corum is most likely out, but Hassan Haskins is picking up the slack. He's a complete back that can block, catch and rush (985 yards). And Harbaugh finally has a QB McNamara who is an efficient passer (12 TD/2 INT/63% completions). On the other hand, Terps' defense allowing a generous 31.4 PPG. And offensively, QB Tagovailoa should continue to struggle vs the fierce Wolverines' pass rush; moreover, because he's already without his top 2 receivers Demus and Jeshaun Jones, and now F Marcus Fleming. MD 0-8 ATS as a dog of more than 14 points vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Michigan has won and covered 5 straight in this series - most in route fashion. Michigan is 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent with revenge off SU/ATS loss. Michigan the call. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Indiana 3:30: Indiana reeling on an 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS slide in the Big Ten. Just can't get an offense (121st) generated and down to 3rd string signal caller Fr McCulley in his 4th straight start. Minnesota has a solid defense (#7 in nation in total defense) and should keep the Hoosiers' pedestrian attack in check. On the other hand, the physical offensive line of the Gophers should eventually wear down the Hoosiers' tired defense; after all, Minnesota has grinded out 205.5 YPG despite losing their top two running backs. We'll look for veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan to get it together today. Gophers are 21-5 ATS off an ATS loss, 12-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as road chalk. Minnesota the call. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
Patriots/Falcons 8:20: Statistically, Falcons sport a solid mark on Thursday but Patriots cancel that out with a 5-1 ATS mark on Thursday as a .500 or greater team vs a non division opponent. Patriots are actually 8-1 SU/ATS all time as favorites of fewer than 7 points vs the NFC South. Falcons' defense has been sketchy most of the year under Pees (former Belichick disciple). They allow 48% conversions on 3rd down, have trouble getting to QB (1.2 sacks per game), and are 31st in the NFL in scoring defense (29.2 PPG). That won't cut it vs a surging NE offense with a physical offensive line that's beating defensive fronts to the punch with a running game led by Damien Harris (probable) and the emergence of QB Mac Jones who has been outstanding during NE's winning run. On the other hand, Falcons' offense doesn't have the weaponry to put a significant dent in the Patriots' defense. Falcons, already without Calvin Ridley (personal), most likely won' have Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) ready to go on a short week. And Belichick is the master of taking away the strength of a team's offense in which for Atlanta is TE Kyle Pitts. With the Falcons' pedestrian run game (29th in league with 82.9 YPG) not clicking, I don't see Atlanta visiting the end zone on the Patriots' #2 scoring defense in the NFL. We'll lay the near TD here. |
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11-17-21 | Central Michigan -1 v. Ball State | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Ball State 7:00: Much on the line for both teams: Ball State looking to be bowl eligible while CM looking to win the MAC West - providing NIU loses last 2 games. My money on CM. The Chippewas looking to avenge last year's loss. And the Chippewas have the coaching and the personnel to do it. They'll lean on Lew Nichols III running the rock who has averaged a ridiculous 178 YPG over the last 5 games. Look for the vulnerable Ball State defense, which has given up explosive plays recently, to get gashed on the run; consequently, efficient QB Richardson (19/2 TD/INT) has the explosive receiving weapons to add to yards and points. On the other hand, Ball State not explosive offensively but eat up yardage. Chippewas improving in getting stops when needed. CM off 2 impressive conference wins and have won their last 2 conference road games. Ball State lost their last 2 home conference games and coming off a disappointing loss at NIU. Balls State 2-5 ATS last 5 at home and just 1-5 in November. Moreover, Cards 0-5 ATS last 5 Wednesday games. On the other hand, CM sports a 14-2-1 ATS mark on Wednesday, 10-2 ATS after scoring 40+ and 23-9 ATS in November. With the road team 5-0 ATS in this series, we'll look for sweet revenge for the Chippewas. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan 7:30: Was on the opposite side of Eastern Michigan last week and delivered with Ohio U. Tonight, I'm getting on the Eagles as a home dog. Eagles' QB Ben Bryant is every bit as good as WM's Eleby. Bryant actually posts better numbers at 69.7% completions and has thrown for 300+ in 3 of last 4 games. WM does have good receivers in Moore, Hall and Crooms. Eagles' defense, which has trouble stopping the run, does sport a pretty good secondary and can create turnovers. Eagles are +1 in turnover margin while the Broncos are -1. Eastern has covered 3 straight in this series including last year's 53-42 win in Kalamazoo. The last 4 matchups were decided by 7 points or fewer. Eagles 22-9 ATS off a SU loss and 19-9 ATS vs team above .500. WM, coming off a narrow victory over 23' point dog Akron last week, just 6-15-1 ATS off a SU win, 2-5 as road chalk, and 1-7-1 ATS in conference games. We'll gladly take Chris Creighton's Eagles which are a sweet 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points vs a .500 team coming off a SU win. |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Rams/49ers 8:15: Rams having issues on offensive line that are preventing them from being the elite offense they're capable of. Tennessee surely exploited it last week. And much ado about nothing regarding bringing in Beckham Jr. He had one practice and surely will be used sparingly. What's of more concern is loss of Robert Woods (ACL). SF's defense at its best when edge rusher Bosa is healthy. Secondary injuries have mounted so 49ers' d-line will have to be at its best. On the other hand, Rams' defense under DC Morris not what it was last year under Staley yet still productive. Top receiver - Samuel should be matched up by lock down corner Ramsey. SF 1-4 O/U as a dog and 7-19 O/U off double-digit SU loss at home. They're also 5-15-1 O/U after allowing 30+ points. Rams are 1-4 O/U off a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 O/U November and 2-12 O/U when the O/U line is above 50. It's currently at 50.5. This series is 2-6 O/U in SF and we'll stay "under". |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 49.5 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Packers 4:25: The "total" elevated on news Russell Wilson (finger) and Aaron Rodgers (Covid19) were cleared. Sure, both offenses immediately upgraded but can't ignore the stats: Green Bay's defense has been the best it has been in years under new DC Joe Barry. Packers' defense #5 in the NFL in total yards allowed and #6 in total points (20 PPG) allowed. Russell Wilson is magical on the field but he's limited as the Seattle run game can't get generated (21st in league) as injuries mount in the backfield. On the other hand, Seattle defense has improved the last few weeks showing an ability to make stops in crucial moments. Both these teams are a combined 3-14 O/U this season. We'll look for a lower scoring game on the frozen tundra today. |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -1.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Eagles/Broncos 4:25: All over the Broncos last week and staying on them here. Eagles coming off a loss at home to the Chargers and now have to travel mile high to Denver. Broncos feeling good about themselves after blasting the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Broncos' Fangio a sweet 12-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division game, and they're 8-0 ATS vs a less than .500 foe off a SU loss. Broncos 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Broncos should add C Pat Surtain (knee) back in the lineup; moreover, TE Noah Fant is activated off the Covid19 list - a big addition considering Tim Patrick (knee) is questionable. Denver's defense (#2 in points allowed) keeps them in games. And unlike last year when Drew Lock would throw an interception late to cost them a close game, Teddy Bridgewater does a nice job of managing the clock and making plays. Eagles are about a year away from closing out games on the winning end and we're staying on the Broncos here. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | 27-20 | Win | 104 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
Vikings/Chargers 4:05: Vikings are a solid road team and dangerous dog. We'll grab them here. Dalvin Cook is reasonably healthy for this time of year and should find holes in a LA run stop unit that is yielding (162 YPG) dead last in the league. Underrated QB Cousins should work well off the play action. His targets - Jefferson and Thielen hard to stop. On the other hand, Herbert and company tear it up offensively. And sure, S Harrison is out and that is a concern but Minnesota has shown that they can get after the QB this year (3.4 sacks per game). Zimmer a sweet 11-2 ATS off back to back SU losses vs a non division foe. Minnesota has covered there last 3 on the road and have covered 4 straight in this series. Minnesota the call. |
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11-14-21 | Jaguars v. Colts -10 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Jacksonville/Indianapolis 1:00: Division game in which Jacksonville has dominated the series to the tune of 9-1 ATS. Thought this line, however, would be shifted higher to the Colts. Last two games in Indianapolis had the Colts beating them SU by 20 and 14, respectively with the ATS money going to Jacksonville. The Jaguars, of course, coming off the monster upset of Buffalo but unlikely to follow up here. Buffalo played sloppy football with 12 penalties accumulating 118 yards. Colts are a disciplined offense under Reich. And unlike Buffalo, should be able to get the run game going with Jonathan Taylor (821 rushing yards/8 TDs). And with vertical threat T.Y. Hilton (concussion) back on the field, the Colts should continue to roll offensively. And the Colts, who are well rested off last Thursday's win, should be able to clean up secondary issues against the 31st ranked offense in terms of points scored (16.5 PPG). Reich a sweet 10-2 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU win. We'll roll with Indy. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada +3 v. San Diego State | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Nevada/San Diego State 10:30pm: Trouble spot for SDS coming off a narrow win at Hawaii. Their most valuable weapon lately has been their punter - Araiza - who boomed a 79 yard punt last week. The Aztecs' offense ranks 113th nationally. The jet lagged Aztecs will host Nevada, who've covered three straight in this series. Nevada sports a strong pass game under Carson Strong. He's thrown for over 3000 yards, with a 25 TD passes and 7 INTs. He's completed nearly 71% of his passes. Sure, SDS has a stellar defense but the defense and their punter can only do so much. Nevada gets after the QB (3.7 sacks per game) and makes plays in the secondary; as a matter of fact, Nevada has had two scores defensively in each of their last two games. SDS fell to Nevada last year but just 1-9 ATS as a favorite with revenge vs a .500 or greater opponent. Nevada the call. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Minnesota/Iowa 3:30: After two straight losses, Iowa slugged by Northwestern last week. Iowa's defense great but their offense is sluggish (123rd in nation). Lurking in the shadows are the Gophers who got beat by Illinois as a 14' point favorite. I wouldn't put it past HC Fleck to be looking ahead to this game. One year ago today, Iowa blasted the Gophers 35-7. Big revenge here and we'll grab them. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. They're 6-1 ATS on the road vs conference foes. Minnesota doesn't have an explosive offense but a potent run game behind a dominant offensive line. The Gophers lost their top running backs including Potts yet still control the 21st ground game in the nation with 208 YPG. Backups Thomas and Irving doing a solid job. QB Tanner Morgan is a veteran QB that's had a rough stretch. Look for him to show up to play today. On the other hand, as of now Iowa has to go with backup QB Padilla who will make his first career start in place of injured Petras (shoulder). Padilla did a solid job against the mediocre Northwestern defense but Minnesota controls the #7 defense in the nation and has a formidable front that can pressure QBs. Hawkeyes just 0-5 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. We'll row the boat with Fleck and his Gophers. |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
East Carolina/Memphis Noon: Pirates on a 6-1 ATS run including 5 straight covers. Pirates have a much better run game than their counterpart and play better defense. EC's RB Keaton Mitchell is a 1000+ rusher who can eat grass and run clock against a suspect Memphis defense. ECU defense no lockdown unit but can make plays. The opportunistic Pirates forced 12 turnovers on the year. The Tigers' secondary has had trouble. ECU's QB Ahlers not great but respectable when the run game is going behind Mitchell. Ahlers completes at 61% and threw 14 TD passes. Memphis just 4-11 ATS in conference play and 4-9 ATS as chalk. They're just 2-4 SU/ATS since upsetting Miss State back on September 18th. They're coming off a big win over SMU and we're fading them against the more consistent Pirates. East Carolina the call. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Auburn Noon: Mississippi State coming off a tough last second loss but cover at Arkansas last week. Bulldogs have covered 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. They're looking to avenge last year's 24-10 home loss. On the other hand, Auburn is coming off a sluggish performance at Texas A&M where all they could generate is a field goal. Auburn a poor 1-7 ATS after scoring less than 10 points. Now they have to face a Top 20 defense of Miss State. Bulldogs play well on the road (5-1 ATS and 4-0 ATS as a road dog). And in their losses, the Bulldogs lost 3 of 4 by 3 points or less. Auburn doesn't present a team with explosive plays which gives a fundamentally sound defense of Miss State the ability to stay in this game. Mississippi State air raid offense led by QB Will Rogers are in the top of the SEC in controlling clock. We'll grab the points with the road team. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Boise State 9:00: Boise appears to be heating up on a 2-0 SU/ATS tear but not sold on them here. Wyoming has a veteran team that traded blow for blow last season in a season ending cover. Wyoming has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series including 3 straight in Boise. Yes, worried about the Wyoming offense which has been stuck in a funk for most of the season until the last two weeks when they finally got their run game going with RB Valladay. He ran roughshod over a pretty good Colorado State defense (25th nationally in total yards allowed). Wyoming's game rests in the hands of their defense (Top 20 nationally and very good against the pass #4). Boise has failed to cover in their last 3 at home and haven't covered three straight all season. Wyoming strong on Fridays (5-0 ATS) and we'll take the two touchdowns. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Ravens/Miami 8:20: We have to be leery of TD+ favorites at this stage of the season; after all, dogs have been covering cross the board over the last week. However, hard to go with a Miami team in the bottom tier on both sides of the ball. Moreover, Baltimore has dominated this series to the tune of 9-0 ATS including the 59-10 whitewash in Miami in 2019. Baltimore's QB Jackson, who's improving dramatically on his passing game, should have his full receiving arsenal now that Sammy Watkins is good to go. And RBs Freeman and Bell are turning back the clock in run production off a solid game vs Minnesota. As for Miami, Tua has a fractured middle finger and going to be difficult to spin the ball. Brissett should get the nod. He does have a few good targets in TE Gesicki and WR Waddle; however, run game ranks last in the NFL and that should be trouble vs the aggressive defense DC Martindale employs. We'll lay the points but tread lightly. |
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11-09-21 | Ohio +6 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio/Eastern Michigan 8:00: Ohio U has been a consistent winner under 17th year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats have had a rough year (2-7 SU) but have been in virtually every game this season in the MAC. Currently on a 4-1 ATS run and off a huge conference win over Miami OH. They have a solid run game behind versatile RB Tuggle (8 TDs) and QB Rourke (69/9% completions) manages the game well. He's coming off a strong game vs Miaim OH in which he threw 3 TD passes. EM has another solid year under HC Creighton at 6-3 but I don't like them in this spot. EM a money burning 1-10 ATS at home after allow 35 or more points. Last week, they won at Toledo 52-49. The Eagles do give up points. Ohio is a dangerous dog at 6-0 ATS on the road off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, they're 10-0 ATS as dogs of less than 20 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. Ohio has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. We'll grab the Bobcats. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Bears/Steelers 8:15: Steelers' offensive line starting to gel a bit. They helped the run game grind out over 100 yards vs a good Browns' run-stop-unit. Steelers should be able to get RB Harris going to open up the play action game for Big Ben. Roethlisberger has a healthy list of weaponry, including Johnson, Claypool, Washington and TE Freirmuth. Bears' secondary wearing thin as S Eddie Jackson nursing a hamstring. And without Khalil Mack (foot), yardage should be had. On the other hand, don't see the Bears' pedestrian offense run all over Pittsburgh's respectable run-stop-unit. Bears' QB Fields should have a decent career but he's struggling in his early stages. And even though Montgomery (Questionable) is cleared to go, Steelers' DC Butler should have his men prepared; after all, Bears' run game (#6 in NFL) fuels an offense ranked 32 in the NFL. Steelers' Tomlin 24-4 vs rookie QBs. Bears 0-4 ATS on MNF vs an opponent off SU/ATS upset win. Steelers sport a solid 14-9 ATS mark on MNF and we'll lay the TD here. |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6 v. Saints | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Falcons/Saints 1:00: Saints' uncertainty at QB gives way to a tightly contested division game here. Saints most likely will go with Siemian. Atlanta HC Smith actually mentored Siemian when they were together in Tennessee. We'll look for the yielding Atlanta defense to shape up today; after all, Siemian is limited in weaponry outside of versatile RB Kamara. Saints coming off big win over TB last week now face a hungry division opponent off a tough loss last week. Saints haven't played the favorite role well lately at 1-4 ATS. This is a double revenge game for Atlanta with last year's sweep. Look for the Falcons to heavily contest it today. |
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11-07-21 | Raiders v. Giants +3 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Raiders/Giants 1:00: Giants had a huge opportunity to win last Monday's game at Kansas City. A drive stalling taunting penalty cost them; nevertheless, they covered the big number for me. Today, I'm back on them. Sure, Barkley likely won't play and they've got more injury concerns on both sides of the ball; however, Daniel Jones doing a decent job managing the offense and he still has enough weaponry to keep the ball moving with TE Engram, WRs Toney and Slayton and, perhaps, Golladay (knee/hip) who would be gravy if he's good to go. Giants' defense is yielding but making plays and gives them a chance here. Raiders, of course, will be without vertical threat Ruggs (released) and will have to travel cross country in a rough spot. Raiders a dismal 1-16 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins. Sure, they're coming off a bye week; however, just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off byes. Giants 5-1 ATS in November and 6-1 ATS after allow less than 90 yards rushing. We'll grab the points with the G-Men. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Broncos/Cowboys 1:00: Value with the Broncos here. Sure, everything's seemingly great in Dallas nowadays as they sit atop the division, well rested and get QB Prescott back. But keep in mind there are some key injury concerns with the receiving corps: Cooper (hamstring), TE Jarwin (hip) placed on IR Wednesday, and Cee Dee Lamb (ankle). Moreover, their key lineman - LT Tyron Smith - who protects the back of Prescott on pass plays - is OUT. Bridgewater (23-5 ATS on the road) has enough weaponry - Gordon, Jeudy, Sutton - to make plays behind a patchwork but scrappy offensive line. And defensive minded Fangio gets the most out of his defensive personnel. Fangio and the Broncos are 11-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division games. Cowboys just 3-7 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 10 or less. We'll take the double digits. |
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11-07-21 | Bills -14.5 v. Jaguars | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Bills/Jaguars 1:00: Hard to imagine the Jaguars, which are in the bottom tier of most categories offensively and defensively, hanging with the Bills which are in the top tier offensively and defensively. Jaguars have been turnover laden offensively and their top yardage producer - RB Robinson is battling a heel injury. Defensively, Jaguars have just 11 sacks on the year and should have problems containing QB Josh Allen for 4 quarters; after all, besides a wealth of riches at his disposal: Diggs, Singletary, Beasley, Sanders, he may have TE Knox back for this one as well. Buffalo a good November team (9-1 ATS) and do well in Jacksonville (4-1 ATS). We'll roll with Buffalo. |
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11-06-21 | Marshall -1 v. Florida Atlantic | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Marshall/Fla Atlantic 6:00: Fla Atlantic puts its 12 game win streak on the line today vs a team that was the last to beat them in FAU Stadium back on October 18, 2019. And the Thundering Herd are 3-0 SU in their last 3 games vs the Owls. Herd a sweet 8-1 ATS on the road vs an opponent with revenge and we'll stay on them here. Marshall has a solid run game behind 1000 yard rusher Rasheen Ali in the nation's #8 ranked offense. On the other hand, FAU does have Mia Fla QB transfer Perry. However, he's been one of the most sacked QBs in the nation and Marshall is a sack producing machine defensively - 28 on the year - 8th nationally. Owls have historically not played the home dog role well at 1-7 ATS. We'll look for Marshall to deliver again. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Mississippi State/Arkansas 4:00: Mississippi State starting to roll on a 3-1 SU/ATS tear after beating down Kentucky last week. In that game, QB Will Rogers completed a near flawless 92.3% of his passes vs a pretty solid Kentucky defense. Arkansas' defense pretty good too; however, Miss State spreads the field and stresses secondaries. The Bulldogs have 6 players with 26 or more receptions. On the other hand, Mississippi State has a top 5 run stop unit in the country and has the horses to effectively counter Arkansas' power run game. The Bulldogs control a Top 20 defense and create turnovers (#20 nationally). Arkansas is coming off a bye week after blowing out subdivision lightweight Arkansas-Pine Bluff - their fist win since upsetting Texas A&M in late September. Mississippi State a perfect 7-0 ATS vs an opponent off a bye and 3-1 ATS in this series at Arkansas. We'll look for the Bulldogs to avenge last year's 21-14 home loss. Mississippi State the call. |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe +3.5 v. Texas State | 19-27 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
UL-Monroe/Texas State 3:00: On paper, UL-Monroe is football ugly. However, dramatic improvement from a season ago when they didn't win a game and was in the bottom tier of virtually every statistical category on both sides of the ball. In came Terry Bowden as the new HC who brought in Rich Rodriquez as his OC; consequently, they've won 4 games including two huge upsets - beating Liberty outright as a 32' point dog and Troy as a 23' point dog. They're years away from competing with the big boys but can compete with the bottom feeders of the Sun Belt. Texas State is such an opponent. They're 2-6 SU, turnover laden offensively and poor defensively. Sure, ULM is every bit as bad statistically, however, they don't turn over the ball as much and can make plays defensively. ULM has a ball hawking secondary that has 9 INTs on the year including 2 going for TDs. With Texas State a poor 1-9-1 ATS as a home favorite above 1 point, we'll grab the Warhawks in a revenge mode after last year's home loss. |
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11-06-21 | Pittsburgh -21 v. Duke | 54-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Duke Noon: Duke is coming off back-to-back losses in which they were outscored 93-7. Offense has a few playmakers with RB Durant (973 rushing yards) and QB Holmberg (1860 passing yards/69% comp) yet they can't get it in the end zone (24.5 PPG - 92nd nationally). The real problem for the Blue Devils is defensively. They can't stop anybody. Devils allowing 470 yards per game and 33 PPG (bottom tier nationally). Their secondary is in shambles and that doesn't bode well vs Heisman contender Cody Pickett. He's been tearing it up consistently this season throwing for nearly 3000 yards / 26 TDs/ 3 INTs. Pitt was coming off a huge win against Clemson before getting bumped off by Mia Fla last week. Defensive minded Narduzzi puts emphasis on defensive effort and didn't like the 38 points wrung up on them. Look for Narduzzi's bunch to respond well here; after all, they're 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 280 yards passing yards and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing more than 35 points. Duke won't be able to trade points with the #5 offense in the nation. We'll look for Pitt to go to 6-0 ATS in this series. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
Jets/Colts 8:20: QB Mike White became a cult hero in NY on Sunday tossing for 405 yards, 3 TDs in his first NFL start; however, he's not going to sneak up on the Colts tonight. He did throw 2 INTs on Sunday to add to the Jets 15 turnovers on the year. Colts control an opportunistic defense (#1 in NFL capturing turnovers). The ruckus Indianapolis crowd should make Mike White uncomfortable, along with a DeForest Buckner and company, in his first NFL road start. Jets haven't been a good road team (15-33-3 ATS as a traveler) going 14-33 ATS in their last 47 games as a road dog. The Colts are coming off a devastating loss to the Titans but the Colts are a sweet 8-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss. Reich and Colts also sport a 10-2 ATS mark as a favorite vs a foe off a SU win. Colts' offense should percolate against a Jets' defense that allows a generous 29.4 PPG. Colts' QB Wentz won't have Hilton but has explosive weaponry RB Jonathon Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. to add to explosive plays vs the yielding Jets' defense. We'll lay the wood here with Indy. |
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11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron +20.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
Ball State/Akron 7:00: Akron clearly not a contender in the MAC yet for they're in a rebuilding stage in Tom Arth's third year as head coach. Akron freshman played 32% of the snaps last season (2nd in the nation). With a bit more maturity, Zips have covered 2 of their last 3 games. And they've had to take on the likes of Auburn and Ohio State in September. Ball State is surely not that caliber and Akron should be competitive. Ball State's offense is 112th in the nation, right there with Akron's. Akron's defense not good but has 8 takeaways on the year with a few good playmakers. Offensively, Akron does have a few playmakers as well, including Konata Mumpfield (caught TD pass vs OSU) who has nearly 500 yards in reception yards and 6 TDs. And Akron may have red shirt senior Kato Nelson back at QB tonight. If not, Irons (66% completions) and Zach Gibson (6 TD/0 INTs) can step in . Akron got soundly beaten at home vs Buffalo last week. Zips 4-0 ATS in its last 4 off a double digit loss at home. |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Giants/Chiefs 8:15: Chiefs have to address defensive issues - allowing 29 PPG and 406 YPG - both at the bottom tier of the league. Giants clearly no offensive juggernaut but do get a few more playmakers back this week in Toney and Shepard. And Daniel Jones is protecting the ball better this season and starting to connect with his TE Engram. On the other hand, Mahomes is having trouble protecting the ball with 9 INTs and 2 fumbles. Giants bring an aggressive front line led by Leonard Williams (sacks in 3 of last 4 games). Giants have done some good work on the road with an outstanding 22-7 ATS mark as a road dog. KC sports a money burning 4-13 ATS mark as chalk. We'll look for NY to hang around. Take the double digits. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Seahawks 4:05: Thought this line would be tilting more on the favorite side of Seattle. I do realize Jaguars are coming off a bye week while Seattle is on a short week. And I also realize Geno Smith is a career backup for a clear cut reason, but he still has a decent surrounding cast of players. And going against a soft Jaguars defense will feel great compared to the formidable unit (New Orleans) Seattle faced Monday. Seattle desperately needs a win here going into their bye week. Then there may be better days ahead as the quick healing Russell Wilson most likely will be back. Carroll should keep his men focused here; after all, he's 14-3 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Seattle the call. |
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10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Had the Falcons (-1') last week in a narrow win over Miami. What appeared to be a solid cover late in the game turned out to be a sweat down the stretch because of a shaky defense (#30 scoring defense allowing 29.6 PPG). Today, I'm fading the Falcons who appear to be gaining momentum; a closer look, however, reveals the their light schedule enabling them to get back into contention; after all, they've taken on the last four teams going a combined 6-21! Giants, Washington, Jets and Dolphins not exactly murderer's row of the NFL. And they were outgained in 3 of those last 4 games. Sure, Carolina is struggling offensively. Rhule will figure it out. He's 8-2 ATS on the road. Darnold should get back in rhythm with his skill guys; after all, he's got some pretty good targets in DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and versatile back Chuba Hubbard - who's no McCaffrey but has skill. Carolina looked crappy vs an underrated Giants' defense last week; today, Carolina delivers. Panthers 21-6 ATS as a road dog off a SU favorite loss. |
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10-31-21 | Dolphins v. Bills -14 | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Bills 1:00: We won't let the number scare us. Bills coming off disappointing loss to Tennessee on the 18th. They had an additional week to stew over that loss and get healthier. Bills are at the top of the league on both sides of the ball whereas the Dolphins are at the bottom tier of the NFL on both sides of the ball. Bills 10-2 ATS with rest off SU loss. Bills roll. |
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10-31-21 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | 34-31 | Win | 111 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Titans/Colts 1:00: Hard to get off the Titans' bandwagon now. They've knocked off top tier teams of Buffalo and Kansas City and already control a win at home vs Indianapolis in Week 3. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS at Indy. King Henry continues to find ways to beat teams and Tannehill has the play action game working. Moreover, the Titans' defense has shaped into a solid unit - making big time plays when needed. Titans 5-2 ATS as a road dog while Indianapolis is a mere 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite. Tennessee the call. |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia/Florida 3:30: Georgia looking to avenge last year's defeat. We'll lay the points here; after all, Georgia has the #1 defense in college football allowing a measly 6.6 PPG. With Florida's uncertainty at QB Richardson and inconsistent starter Emory Jones, could be trouble. On the other hand, Florida's defense was gashed to the tune of 321 yards on 45 attempts in their loss to LSU on the 16th. The Gators' repeatedly went over blocks on LSU's counters to give up multiple explosive plays. Georgia has a sound run game and QB Bennett has filled in well for JT Daniels. Gators 0-5 ATS as a dog vs opponent with revenge. Georgia rolls. |
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10-30-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Nebraska | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Purdue/Nebraska 3:30: Purdue covered the last 3 at Nebraska and we'll grab the points again here. Purdue lost to the Cornhuskers at home last year. 'Huskers a mere 1-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 14 points vs opponent with revenge. Take the points. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Michigan/Michigan State Noon: Michigan's had trouble with the Spartans. They're 2-9 ATS last 11 in this series. And away from the Big House, the Wolves are a money burning 1-6 ATS at East Lansing. Not a fan of laying points with that scenario. Michigan State has a bruising run game with Kenneth Walker III (997 Yards). And QB Payton Thorne (15 TD/4 INT/61% COMP) manages the game well. And the Spartans are no softie vs power run teams. We'll look for the Spartans to deliver here. |
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10-30-21 | Texas v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Texas/Baylor Noon: Both teams well rested coming off byes; however, Bears in better shape sitting at 6-1 while Texas has dropped their last two conference games and sitting at 4-3. Texas has been able to put points on the board with its explosive offense; however, they're unable to finish games because of a leaky defense. They've given up nearly 430 YPG and nearly 30 PPG. Baylor, on the other hand, continues its defensive success giving up nearly 100 YPG less than the Longhorns. Baylor's new offensive coordinator - Grimes - bestowed an offense to the Bears this season; something they lacked considerably last year under Fedora. The Bears' RB Abram Smith is coming off a 188 yard rushing game vs BYU. And they're in good hands with QB Bohanon (12 TD passes/1 INT with a 66% completion percentage. Baylor looking to avenge last year's 27-16 loss should get it done. Longhorns 3-7-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Baylor the call. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Packers/Cardinals 8:20: Close to going on Cardinals here; after all, they're undefeated, have a wealth of riches at the disposal of Kyler Murray, including recently picked up TE Ertz. And they do have the #4 ranked defense; however, Arizona has disappointed as a home favorite (9-20 ATS) routinely. And under the Thursday Night Lights, the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS vs .500 opposition. Moreover, Cards are 0-5 ATS off a double-digit ATS win vs a less than .700 non-division opponent. As for the Packers, sure, they're down a few receivers including QB Rodgers' top target Adams and another key wideout in Lazard - both on Covid 19 protocol. There is a possibility Adams could be on the field providing he has two negative tests prior to kickoff. If he's not available, Rodgers still has versatile RB Aaron Jones behind a relative healthy offensive line to dent a mediocre run-stop-unit (18th in NFL) of Arizona which will not have J.J. Watt (out). There's also quality receivers in veteran Randall Cobb, TEs Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis. And keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 SU without the services of Davante Adams. Defensively, GB is much better than in years past under the leadership of DC Joe Barry. Barry (out Covid19 list) went over the defensive plan via Zoom meetings and is well in hand with his assistants. Packers 5-1 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off a SU win. We'll back the Pack! |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
TAKE SEATTLE (+4): Saints/Seahawks 8:15: Saints coming off a bye week but still have injuries, especially receiving corps where they're thin. Seahawks defense shaky under Norton Jr. but have playmakers in secondary with safeties Diggs and Adams who can make plays. Saints at the bottom tier in NFL in pass game so Carroll will surely have good defensive plan to disrupt error prone QB Winston. On the other side of the ball, Seattle's offensive line is relatively healthy and Penny comes off the IR. He may have a big game to help Geno Smith out. Smith has some great targets in Metcalf, Lockett and Swain. We won't count the Seahawks out even without Wilson. Pete Carroll usually finds ways to win these games; after all, he's 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Moreover, on MNF, Seattle is a sweet 7-1 ATS as a home dog, 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU losses! Seattle the call. |
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
Colts/49ers 8:20: Value with a Colts team that's on a 3-0 ATS run. Indy has covered in their last 3 trips to San Francisco. Wentz is now starting to be the QB Indianapolis thought he could be. Under his old tutor with Phily, now Colts' HC Reich has Wentz playing well. Tonight, he won't have vertical threat - Hilton (out); however, LG Quenton Nelson is good to go. That's good news for the the run game led by Jonathon Taylor (472 yards rushing w/ 4 TDs). And there is Pittman Jr., Pascal and RB Hines who are having success in the improving Colts' offense. 49ers not having success closing out games. And they're a ridiculous 0-14 ATS as a home favorite vs less than .500 opponent. Colts the call. |
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10-24-21 | Eagles +3 v. Raiders | 22-33 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Eagles/Raiders 4:05: Eagles had a few more prep days for this and should make the best of it. Dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings while the road team is 4-1 ATS. Raiders have yet to get their run game established. Eagles have not been good against the run and outrushed in 4 of 6 games. But Raiders run game produces just under 80 yards a game. Eagles do play the pass well and can pressure the QB with limited blitzing. On the other hand, Eagles' offense overdue to get cooking. And surely Philadelphia plays better on the road. We'll grab the Eagles. |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Baltimore has blown out Cincinnati in the last 3 meetings but look for this one to be competitive. Bengals have been in every game this season and look to take over first place the AFC North with a win here. Thanks to a much improved defense, the Bengals are no longer a pushover. And the Burrow - Chase connection is tough to stop when Mixon is running the rock well. Baltimore has been suspect in the secondary (26th in the NFL) because of injuries. Bengals have covered 3 of their last 4 at Baltimore and we'll ride them here. |
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10-24-21 | Falcons -1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Falcons/Dolphins 1:00: Scheduling advantage for the Falcons here. Both of these teams played in London recently; however, Falcons played there on the 10th and had a bye week while Miami played there last week. Falcons are relatively healthy and veteran QB Ryan is getting in good rhythm with #1 draft choice TE Pitts. On the other hand, Miami ranks at the bottom tier of the league in most categories offensively and defensively. Miami has regressed significantly from a year ago and key players (C Xavien Howard / WR Parker) are limited in practice. I'm going to back the well rested Falcons with the better QB and defense. |
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10-23-21 | West Virginia +4.5 v. TCU | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Maryland/Minnesota 3:30: Maryland got the best of Minnesota last year at home in a 45-44 OT win. Look for Minnesota to return the favor on their home field. Since Minnesota's upset loss in Week 4 to lightweight Bowling Green, they've rattled off 2 impressive conference wins over Purdue and Nebraska. Meanwhile, QB Tagovailoa and Maryland flamed out getting blown out by Iowa and Ohio State. They did have a bye week but don't think it will help. Terrapins 1-10 ATS as dogs with rest. "Row the boat" with Minnesota. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 41 | 30-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Purdue 3:00: Heavy "under" trends on both teams. Both teams possess top 20 defenses with mediocre offensive production. Wisconsin passing game with Mertz doesn't scare any team. And Purdue keeps teams out of the end zone (5th nationally). "Under" it is. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +3.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Purdue 3:00: Jeff Brohm doing a solid job building Purdue. Defense is playing well and despite the revolving QBs, Purdue has held onto the ball well (just 2 turnovers) and possess a solid pass game. On the other hand, Wisconsin QB Mertz struggling (2 TD/7 INT) and it's effecting the offense production. Sure, Wisconsin has virtually owned this series but Purdue is a sweet 9-0 ATS with revenge off double-digit AGTS win vs less than .600 opponent. We backed Purdue last week as my Top Play and hit big over Iowa; today, we'll grab the points again. |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +2 v. Browns | 14-17 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
Broncos/Browns 8:20: Browns' got offensive line injuries, top running backs - Chubb (calf), Hunt (calf) - out and QB Mayfield (shoulder) out. Surely the defensively stout Broncos, also eaten by the injury bug to their linebacker corps, are hungry to shut down the Browns' struggling offense. Browns' offense is fueled by their outstanding run game behind Chubb and Hunt. Replacement RB E'Ernest Johnson respectable in 38 career games but not the Pro Bowl caliber of the aforementioned. And behind a patchwork offensive line, it will be difficult for QB Keenum to get the play action going. Browns a money burning 4-26 ATS after running for less than 90 yards in previous game. On the other hand, look for QB Bridgewater (foot) to play. And star WR Jeudy off the IR and practicing. Should be good to go. Browns' defense is solid despite having a few bad games vs formidable offenses. Broncos' offense surely not explosive but can put together sustainable drives. Denver's Fangio a sweet 11-1 ATS vs non division foe off a non division game. And Fangio is a sweet 9-1 ATS off a division game. Broncos are 13-6 SU on Thursday and should deliver. |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Denver/Cleveland 8:20: Both defenses got worked the last few weeks but against very good offenses. Denver had the duty to stop Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas - and weren't able to match points with their offensive production. On the other hand, Cleveland is coming off two explosive offenses in LA Chargers and Arizona. Offensive injuries contributed to a stall out in offensive production for them. Tonight, on a short week. a patchwork Cleveland offense led by Case Keenum should struggle to engineer successful drives vs the well disciplined unit that Fangio puts on the field. On the other hand, Cleveland defense should get back to being solid on the defensive end against a significant drop off in offensive talent. Browns 3-10 O/U after a double-digit loss at home. Broncos a proud 0-5 O/U after allowing 30+ points previously and 6-21-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards previously. "Under" the call. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | 31-34 | Win | 105 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Buffalo/Tennessee 8:15: Buffalo established itself as the class of the AFC with a resounding win over KC last week. And their defense is much more formidable than last year's. They are at the top of the NFL in multiple categories. But hold everything. Tennessee is by far the best running team they face. Derek Henry ran roughshod over them last year en route to a 42-16 demolition. Tennessee has the #2 rushing team in the NFL at 168 YPG. And Julio Jones surely offers an additional threat to compliment A.J. Brown (questionable). Titans' defense yielding but can make stops at key times in games. Tannehill and company should be able to stay in this one. On MNF, Tennessee is 16-3 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off SU/ATS wins. Buffalo on MNF, however, just 2-7 ATS off back to back SU wins. We'll grab the points here. |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
Seattle/Pittsburgh 8:20: I won't discount the Seahawks and Pete Carroll. They're 33-15-4 ATS off a SU loss and 12-5 ATS as a dog. Sure, defense is sluggish and Russell Wilson is on the IR. Nevertheless, Seattle pulled off some nice extended drives under Geno Smith. And the Seahawks manage to make necessary stops when needed. Seahawks should rally behind Geno Smith as he puts together a performance vs his former team. Seahawks' defense will have one less weapon to worry about as Smith-Schuster went down with season ending shoulder injury last week. Steelers do not play the favorite role well at 0-6 ATS. And remember that Pete Carroll remains the Prime Time TV king at 10-3 ATS. Seattle the call. |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -4 | 34-24 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders in a disarray after the demise of Gruden. Interim HC Bisaccia will have his work cut out for him keeping LV focused. Raiders' not getting it done offensively: run game shoddy (78 YPG) and just 19 PPG. Denver defense under Fangio rock solid #2 in points allowed at 15.2 PPG. On the other hand, Broncos no offensive juggernaut themselves but Bridgewater has been good managing the offense (7 TD/1 INT) and Melvin Gordon III should be good to go behind a solid offensive line. Raiders 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 1-6 ATS after rushing for less than 90 YPG. Fangio looking for double revenge from last year's Raiders' sweep. We'll lay the points. |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos UNDER 44 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders hot start has fizzled with Gruden's exit. Raiders are producing just 19 PPG and can't generate a run game (78 rush yards per game). Denver's defense in good hands under defensive mastermind Fangio. On the other hand, Denver's offense struggling on 3rd down. And having their top 2 receivers - Jeudy and Hamilton out won't help matters. Raiders play the pass well (#3 in NFL). Heavy "under" trends by Denver, including 6-21-1 O/U after allowing 350 yards through the air, and they're 8-17 O/U at home. Raiders 2-7 O/U as a road dog. This series is historically low scoring at 1-8 O/U and 1-5 O/U in Denver. Fangio determined to avenge last year's season sweep and should deliver. He's 0-5 O/U with revenge vs division. "Under" the call. |
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10-17-21 | Vikings v. Panthers +2.5 | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Vikings/Panthers 1:00: Carolina, coming off two tough losses, should get it together today. They're seeking to avenge last year's 28-27 loss to the Vikings. Panthers' Matt Rhule 4-0 ATS off SU/ATS loss w/ revenge. Vikings, a mid-level defense and solid producing offense - just can't put it consistently in the end zone (20th in points scored). Carolina defense is stingy allowing just 17.4 PPG (#3 in NFL). And offensively, Darnold due to get back on track. He has good skill weapons in Moore, Anderson and McCaffery's (IR) replacement - RB Chuba Hubbard. Minnesota not a good favorite at 0-7 ATS and 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Carolina the call. |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Jaguars 9:30: This one in London. Jaguars eager to break their 20 game losing streak and it should come here. Miami not the defense they were last year and it gets worse. Top corner Xavien Howard is out for the 30th ranked defense in total yards and points allowed. Should allow Lawrence to settle in with his weaponry. And keep in mind that RB James Robinson is running the rock (5.8 YPC) to more pressure off of Lawrence. As for the Miami offense, they're struggling. Tua should be back at the controls but his weaponry is limited with explosive vertical threats Parker and Fuller out. Jaguars the call. |
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10-16-21 | Air Force +3.5 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
Air Force/Boise State 9:00: Boise State coming off a huge win over BYU. Should see trouble here. Boise State defense has had difficulty stopping the run - allowing 180 YPG (98th nationally). That bodes trouble against the #1 run team in the nation. AF triple option working its magic this year. On the other hand, AF puts a Top 10 defense on the field to go up against an offense that doesn't have the same bite it did in recent years under former Boise State head coaches Harsin and Peterson. Under Avalos, the Boise run game 121st in the nation. Air Force has a solid run-stop-unit and limits explosive plays. We'll roll with AF which eats clock and keeps the chains moving. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA +1.5 v. Washington | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
UCLA/Washington 8:30: We'll look for Chip Kelly's boys to work their strong run game vs the weak spots of the Washington defense. Washington defense allows nearly 180 YPG. UCLA run game is cooking behind RB Charbonnet and Brown. UCLA has the 18th ranked run game at 225 YPG. Dorian Thompson-Robinson doing a solid job in the Kelly system - 11 TD passes/2 INT. Washington, a major underachiever thus far, should continue to struggle. UCLA the call. |
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10-16-21 | Stanford v. Washington State | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Stanford/Washington State 7:30: Stanford overdue to deliver in this series. QB Tanner McKee doing a solid job at the controls (12 TD/3 INT). We'll look for Shaw's bunch to battle back after getting worked by Arizona State last week. Washington State off two big wins but should struggle here. Rolovich just 5-25 SU in games in which his team scores fewer than 28 points. We'll look for the Stanford defense to step up their game here. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +11.5 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Purdue/Iowa 3:30: Iowa has defeated three ranked opponents and feel really good about themselves. However, lurking in the shadows is a formidable Purdue team that's had their number. Purdue HC Jeff Brohm 3-1 SU/ATS vs Iowa. Purdue has a Top 20 defense that can limit the pedestrian Iowa offensive attack. Of course, Iowa controls an opportunistic defense #1 in the country creating turnovers (16) with a ball hawking secondary. However, Purdue QB Jack Plummer has yet to throw an interception in an offense that's turned the ball over just 1 time this season. Purdue is coming off a bye with extra prep and should stay in this game. Purdue a sweet 14-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 11 points. We'll grab the points. |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers -103 v. Giants | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
Bucs/Eagles 8:20: Gladly take the TD and the Eagles here. Eagles post a strong defensive front despite the loss of Brandon Graham for the season. Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox lead a strong defensive front while the secondary is solid in C Darius Slay and Steven Nelson. Linebacking corps average but getting better. TB run game not the greatest (26th in NFL) so Eagles can get away with a Nickle Back to help to stall out the dangerous Tom Brady and company. Gronk (ribs) will be out again and their C Jensen struggling with a hip injury. Defensively, TB won't have one the better LBs in the NFL Lavonte David (22 tackles, 1 sack) and edge rushing beast Pierre-Paul still struggling with shoulder problem; consequently, we'll look for the Eagles' offense to be able to move the football. TB not a good road favorite at 1-4 ATS and just 2-7 SU on Thursdays. They're also just 1-5 ATS off SU win of 14 or more and 1-5 ATS in Week 6. Eagles are 5-1 ATS on Thursdays, 6-2 AGTS in Week 6 and 5-2 ATS as a home dog; moreover, Philadelphia a sweet 7-0 ATS home off a SU dog win. Eagles the call! |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Colts/Ravens 8:15: Colts play the run well. Lamar and company ran for 110 yards last year on Indianapolis. Tonight, Ravens looking to go 43 straight games of 100+ rushing yards. Indy won't make it easy on them for they take pride as run stoppers, especially with a healthy Darius Leonard in the lineup. Indy a strong 6-1 ATS at Baltimore. They're also 6-1 ATS w/ revenge off a SU/ATS win playing on MNF. Baltimore defense has some injuries and not the lockdown unit they're used to being. Interesting stat - Week 5 Indy is 11-3 ATS while Baltimore at the opposite end of the spectrum at 4-11 ATS. We'll look for Wentz and company, despite loss of WR Hilton and C Quenton Nelson, to hang around. Indy the call. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Bills/Chiefs 8;20: Bills, off a breakthrough year in 2020 offensively, still possess a potent offense with Josh Allen and Diggs; however, this year, their defense is much improved (#1 in multiple categories). That should make a difference tonight. Bills can make stops whereas the KC Chiefs' defense has tailed off drastically - in the bottom tier of the NFL in multiple categories. Chiefs can still win games but not covering especially in one score games - 10-2 SU but 1-10-1 ATS in that category since last season. Bills the call. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | 10-17 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
49ers/Cardinals 4:25: I was on the Cardinals (+4) last week at Los Angeles and delivered. Now it's time to get off the Cardinals, which inevitably struggle in this spot. Cardinals' Kingsbury 1-5 ATS vs a foe off a SU favorite loss. Of course, the 49ers are coming off a loss at home as a slight favorite to Seattle last week. 49ers won't have Garoppolo (calf) but Trey Lance is good to go. 49ers' run game with Mitchell and Sermon should assist Lance in moving the football vs the yielding run stop unit of Arizona (26th in NFL). Lance won't have TE Kittle (IR) but has some good targets, including Deebo Samuel to fuel the pass game. 49ers have played Arizona tough beating them in Arizona the last 2 times. Arizona a scary 0-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team at home off a division game and playing another division foe. We'll take the points. |
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10-10-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Chargers | 42-47 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Browns/Chargers 4:05: Browns sport the #1 run game in the NFL behind Chubb and Hunt which square off vs a Chargers' defense that allows 140 YPG (29th in NFL). Should allow Mayfield to work his play action game to Higgins, Peoples-Jones, Hooper and Beckham Jr. - overdue to be unleashed. On the other hand, Browns making life miserable on QBs with edge rushers' Garrett (6 sacks) and Clowney - both questionable but good to go. Browns also, however, play the run well allowing just 66.5 YPG (3rd in NFL). Browns have covered 3 straight in Los Angeles. Chargers 4-10-1 ATS as home chalk. We'll grab the Browns. |
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10-10-21 | Dolphins +10 v. Bucs | 17-45 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Bucs 1:00: Value with the underdog here. Miami has not looked good as a team since opening day win at New England. Defense has underachieved and the offense ranks at the bottom of the NFL in multiple categories. Meanwhile, TB 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS coming off big win over New England. Nevertheless, we'll look for the underachieving defense of Miami to step up. More importantly, need Miami offense to show it can move the football with Brissett the the controls. Miami 6-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards per game. Miami is 7-1 ATS off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS as a road dog. TB's Arians is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite vs a non division foe and the Bucs are 0-9 ATS before a Thursday night game. Wouldn't put it past the Bucs to overlook the hapless Dolphins. Take the double digits. |
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10-09-21 | Florida State +17.5 v. North Carolina | 35-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5 | 55-48 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Oklahoma has won (SU) 3 straight in this series, although Texas has covered 7 of the last 9. I'm going to take the field goal and a hook with a progressively improving team. The Longhorns, which lost its second game of the season to Arkansas, battled back in weeks 3, 4 and 5 with solid wins and covers against Rice, Texas Tech and TCU. Casey Thompson is managing the offense well and the defense is making stops when needed. On the other hand, Oklahoma sports a perfect 5-0 SU mark but controls a money burning 1-4 ATS mark. Spencer Rattler's stock is dropping sharply and it won't get easier today. And the Oklahoma defense clearly not impenetrable (83rd in nation) considering they've face mediocre offenses. Texas capable of trading points in this matchup and we'll look for them to hang tight and deliver. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -4.5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
10-08-21 | Stanford +13.5 v. Arizona State | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
Rams/Seahawks 8:20: At first glance, Rams the call; after all, McVay's Rams have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. But let's not forget Pete Carroll is the NFL Prime Time king, especially on Thursday Night with a 10-1 SU run including 9 straight. Moreover, Carroll is 12-2 ATS as a dog vs greater than .500 division opponent. Seahawks' defense is ugly on paper (last in total yards allowed) but game is not played on paper. Rams' defense seemed impenetrable after first three games but allowed Arizona to roll all over them - as I predicted Sunday. Rams 0-8 ATS on the road off double-digit SU division loss. Tonight, look for competitive game with the all dangerous home dog delivering. |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chargers 8:15: Both teams much improved from a year ago. Chargers finding ways to close out games successfully and the Raiders' defense is tremendously improved. Chargers coming off a huge division win at KC could find problems here, however. Raiders, 4-0 ATS run on MNF, possess the #1 offense in the NFL and will most likely have RB Josh Jacobs back for the first time in a few weeks. Chargers have injury concerns defensively with starting LB Kenneth Murray and RDE Justin Jones out. On the other hand, Raiders' much improved defense relatively healthy under DC Gus Bradley. And let's not forget Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last year and saw a lot of QB Herbert in practices. This series has been relatively close in scoring with the dog covering 18 of the last 24 games. Road team has covered 4 of last 5. And Las Vegas covered 9 of the last 12 in Los Angeles. With the much improved defense of the Raiders and the offensive rhythm of Carr and company, we'll take the points. |