Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Notre Dame | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/South Carolina 3:30: ND turned in a solid season and looks good going forward. However, a few key opt outs and change of QB should cost them here. TE Mayer (67 catches for 809 yards) was the main go-to weapon of QB Pyne. He opted out as he prepares for the NFL draft. DL Foskey (11 sacks) is a menace to QBs - opted out. And starting corner Hart (shoulder) won't play. Moreover, Tyler Buchner, who started the year as the starting QB, will now take over for Pyne who has already transferred. South Carolina is coming off a great second year under Shane Beamer. And QB Spencer Rattler got into rhythm at the right time down the stretch with an electrifying performance (798 total yards with 8 TDs/2 INTs) vs Tennessee and Clemson. Even though SC has a few opt outs of their own, hard to go against the momentum of South Carolina now. They're 4-1 ATS in non-conference games, including last year's bowl upset win over North Carolina as a 13-point dog under Beamer. We'll take the points here. |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA OVER 54 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-29-22 | Washington +3 v. Texas | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Texas/Washington 9:00: Got to question Texas motivation coming into this one. Longhorns had high expectations going into the season but forced to play in Alamo Bowl for the third time in four years. Longhorns' offense is ignited by Doak Walker winner RB Bijon Robinson. His YAC (yards after contact) were off the chart and almost single handedly destroyed Baylor in final game of the year. Washington is sound in their defensive scheme and play the run well. Of course, Texas has super athletes to fill the RB position, but Robinson (opted out) is hard to replace; moreover, their second-best RB Roschon Johnson opted out as well. Texas QB Ewers will be showcasing his talent for BMOC (Big Man on Campus) Arch Manning will be arriving in January to take away his position. Washington secondary not the greatest but they should get help from a solid defensive front that has been successful getting to QB (2.9 sacks per game). Offensively, Washington has the #2 offense in the nation (522 YPG) led by the nation's top yardage producer through the air - Michael Pennix Jr. When he gets in rhythm, he's hard to stop. Texas will not have LB Overshown (NFL opt out) surging downhill. And Overshown and Roschon Johnson were key special teams' players for them as well. With the opt outs and the lack of motivation, I'll take the field goal with a hungry Washington (4-0 ATS non-conference) team eager to win a bowl. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Florida State 5:30: Mike Norvell is guiding Florida State in the right winning direction nowadays. And he has a tendency to close regular season games strong. He posted strong November winning marks at Memphis, and he did again this year with the Seminoles; however, as a word of caution, he went SU/ATS with Memphis in bowl games and that's a concern. But given the situation with nearly a fully loaded team eager to restore the winning tradition of bowl success from the Bowden and Fisher days, we'll lay the wood but with caution. Florida State has not won a bowl game since 2017. Florida State closed the season strong and looks good on both sides of the ball. QB Jordan Travis had a breakout year in a productive offense and the 'Noles have a Top 20 defense. Oklahoma, on the other hand, struggled mightily defensively this year. They're 120th in yards allowed and allow nearly 30 PPG! Moreover, the opt outs are plentiful: both starting offensive tackles (Morris & Henderson), RB Eric Gray, DT Redmond to name a few. The 'Noles are a solid 6-1 ATS as a non-conference favorite of less than 14 points. Given the direction these teams are going at this point, we'll lay the wood with Florida State. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech +4 | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/Ole Miss 9:00: Now that big time QB Tyler Shough is back healthy, I'll take the points here. After recovering from collarbone injury, Shough came back for the last 3 games full time and Tech rolled. HC McGuire did a solid job in his first year at the helm. Tech defense not the greatest but they make plays. Rebels went 0-3 ATS down the stretch and 1-3-1 ATS off a SU loss. Both teams pretty much at full strength with no major opt outs. We'll take the points. |
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12-28-22 | North Carolina +13 v. Oregon | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Oregon/North Carolina 8:00: Both starting QBs will play. Nix for Oregon and Drake Maye for NC. Maye won't have his top receiver - Downs (NFL prep). Won't panic there for Mack Brown had solid recruiting classes the last few years and has really good skill players to see the field today. Oregon has some key personnel opting out of this one, however. C Gonzale (4 INTs), LB Sewell (56 tackles), DE DJ Johnson (6 sacks). Not a fan of Tar Heels' defense which is in the lower echelon of college football. However, the Tar Heels have enough offense to trade points and stay in games. 14 of the last 18 losses by Mack Brown have been one possession games. We'll look for NC to stay in this one. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida +3.5 v. Duke | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Central Florida/Duke 2:00: Great season by Duke as first year HC Elko did an amazing job. But Malzahn no joke. He did a solid job in his second year. He's dealing with a few key players going into the transfer portal; however, UCF is deep in athletes. A veteran team with lots of players logging minutes on last year's bowl winning team. QB Plumlee, who was not healthy late in season, is healthy and ready to roll. UCF 4-1 ATS off SU loss. Malzahn lost his DC Travis Williams to Arkansas but defensive back coach Addison Williams may be an upgrade. We'll take the points here with another strong American Athletic Conference team to do well in the bowls. |
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12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin -3.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Wisconsin 10:15: These two teams will be shells of what they were during the regular season. Both QBs Sanders (Oklahoma State) and Mertz (Wisconsin) are transferring. Badgers have their starting NG out and LG out. Oklahoma State, however, has been hit hard by the transfer portal with 11 players transferring. Their defense under first year DC Mason was horrific compared to last year under Knowles. They went from the best defense in the Big 12 to the worst. They were 96th against the run allowing 171 YPG. Gundy's team was rolling early led by their normal potent offensive attack but the declining health of their QB Sanders led to a dismal 2-5 SU slide where they averaged a paltry 14 PPG. Wisconsin will have a new coach next season (Fickell from Cincinnati). The defensive coordinator Leonard, who did a rock solid job with this club for years, is the interim coach. The guys will play hard for him in his last game. And offensively, Badgers are deeply rooted in running the football for decades. That won't change today with mostly likely starter - QB Miles Burkett. He's got 1100+ yard rusher Braelon Allen playing behind some still quality offensive linemen. Lay the points with Wisconsin. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina OVER 65 | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina/ECU 6:45: Both of these teams have similar explosive offenses and similar yielding defenses. Both record setting QBs - McCall for CC and Ahlers for ECU - are playing. McCall is essentially showcasing his ability as he enters the transfer portal. Both defenses allow 412 YPG and around 30 PPG. CC will have their DC Staggs as their interim HC as Chadwell is off to Liberty. CC has one of their best players - LB Josiah Stewart - out. He's opted to go to Michigan. Look for a shootout here. These teams are a combined 9-1 O/U in December. CC is 10-4 O/U vs non-conference foes and ECU is 5-0 O/U after producing 450+ yards. "Over" it is. |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Memphis/Utah State: Memphis has the edge in offensive prowess with record setting QB Henigan. Aggies more ball control with RB Calvin Tyler Jr.; however, the only problem is that he opted out of this game. Memphis plays pretty sound defense considering the high octane offense they possess. The Aggies are among the nation's least-disciplined teams when it comes to penalties, and they struggle to win the turnover battle. The Tigers are far sounder in both areas and have the passing attack to deliver. We'll lay the TD. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
12-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Bowling Green -3 | 24-19 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
12-25-22 | Bucs -7.5 v. Cardinals | 19-16 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 40 m | Show | |
12-25-22 | Broncos v. Rams +3 | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
Broncos/Rams 4:30: Both teams highly underachieved this year. Rams did so with numerous injuries, especially along the offense line where they've reshuffled nearly 13 times. The Broncos, however, never meshed as an offensive unit with Wilson as the signal caller. Denver coming off a win over the lifeless Arizona Cardinals but can't be trusted in this spot. They're 1-6 ATS off a SU win and just 1-7 ATS in Week 16. Hackett is no master motivator and I do believe that trend will hold weight here. On the other hand, Rams' Mayfield has had a few weeks to get in rhythm with his receivers: Atwell, Van Jefferson, Powell and TE Higbee. RB Cam Akers has shown some production in recent weeks. And Rams' defense, still has some veteran stars which bring energy to the field, including MLB Wagner. Edge to McVay as the signal caller in creating something out of limited talent. With the home team in this series at 4-1 ATS and the dog at 6-0 ATS, take the points with the Rams. |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins OVER 49.5 | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Packers/Dolphins 1:00: Both teams still alive for a playoff spot. Look for fireworks on the offensive side. QB Rodgers is getting in rhythm with his young receivers, including Christian Watson. Miami defense has given up lots of yards through the air (lower tier of NFL) and points (nearly 25 ppg - 27th in NFL). On the other hand, Dolphins got their run game going last week with Mostert leading the way (136 yards). And GB defense has been vulnerable to the run (149 YPG - 29th in NFL). Effective running game will surely open the lanes for Waddle and Hill. GB has heavy "over" trends while Miami is on a 5-2 O/U run. "Over" the call. |
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12-24-22 | Raiders v. Steelers -2.5 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 81 h 18 m | Show | |
Raiders/Steelers 8:15: Tomlin has never had a losing record as a coach of the Steelers and should be on his way to maintain that status tonight. A glimmer of hope for each of these teams riding winning streaks coming into this one; however, Steelers have the home field advantage, and extra motivation with the passing of Steelers' legend Franco Harris who will be honored posthumously at halftime. QB Pickett should get the nod but Trubisky proving he can step in and guide the team. Dominant performance by the Steelers last week as they ran the ball well and also continue to defend vs the run well. They held Carolina to a measly 21 yards rushing last week. The #7 run stop unit will need to stop LV RB Jacobs - who is having a career year. LV has covered this series 5 straight times but look for the surging Steelers who welcome the warm weather Raiders to the 7-degree temperature of Heinz Field. Pittsburgh the call. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 47 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here. |
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12-24-22 | Commanders +7 v. 49ers | 20-37 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Commanders/49ers 4:05: Commanders won the total yards in passing and rushing vs the Giants last week but costly errors (strip sack) and inability to close in the red zone cost them the game. Look for Washington to do well in this spot. They're 7-3 ATS in Week 16 and 3-0-1 ATS at SF including a 23-15 outright win at SF back in Ron Rivera's first year coaching Washington in 2020. SF could take their foot off the gas pedal here after clinching division. Commanders will have DE Chase Young making his season debut to give Brock Purdy trouble. And offensively, the weapons are abundant with Dotson, Samuel, McLaurin, RB Robinson. SF just 3-7 ATS in Week 16. We'll take the points. |
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12-24-22 | Saints v. Browns -2.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Saints/Browns 1:00: Browns are made to play in the inclement weather on Saturday. Watson is getting comfortable in the system and the run game with Chubb and Hunt behind a rock solid offensive line should be the deciding factor. Saints, 21st in rushing, not utilizing Kamara like they should. And explosive receiver Olave out. Taysom Hill may get significant action to attempt to gain yardage in what should be extremely cold with heavy winds. Browns made for this weather and Saints are not. |
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12-24-22 | Bengals -3 v. Patriots | 22-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Bengals/Patriots 1:00: Patriots no longer the intimidating force at Foxborough where they've gone 3-3 SU/ATS this season. They've dominated this series, but the trend should flip starting today. Patriots have average offensive personnel coached by questionable offensive minds (DC Patricia/QB Coach Judge). And Mac Jones displays a temperament and pocket awareness not feasible to be a big game winner. NE wants to pound the rock, throw the quick screens but Bengals' defense surely up to the challenge. They have a good run-stop-unit (8th vs the run), limit points in the red zone, and create turnovers. On the other side of the ball, Burrow is sacked less often now and the Bengals' offense is rolling. They're well balanced, limit turnovers and have dangerous weapons (Chase, Higgins, Perine, Mixon, Boyd) that NE defensive backs will have trouble with. And now that the Bengals' offensive line is starting to gel, Bengals should keep it rolling. |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest -125 v. Missouri | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
Wake Forest/Missouri 6:30: Edge goes to WF here. QB Sam Hartman decided to play instead of sitting out (NFL prep or transfer). He'll have his top receiver - Perry at his disposal. WF offense hard to stop and despite the solid defense of Missouri, don't think the Tigers have enough offense to trade points for the duration of the game. And Missouri has a few key players out who are either prepping for the NFL draft or in the transfer portal. The team in Missouri's last 44 games who wins the overall yardage stats is 38-6. Take Wake Forest on the money line. |
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12-23-22 | Houston v. UL-Lafayette +7 | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette/Houston 3:00: Houston clearly has the more potent offense with Tune and company; however, defensively, they allow teams back in games. Six of Houston's 12 games came down to a final drive - 3 in OT. Ragin' Cajuns have an opportunistic defense that's forced 23 turnovers and Houston has had their share (95th in nation) this season. ULL has a ball hawking secondary (15 picks) led by Bralen Trahan (4). And despite a few early NFL prep defectors, they still have Zi'yon Hill who is seeking the career sack record of 22 today. Offensively, 'Cajuns in good hands with Wooldridge 15/5 TD/INT and Chandler Fields, plus a decent run game with RB Chris Smith. Disturbing trend for Houston's HC Holgorsen whose teams are 8-22 ATS with rest, including 1-12 ATS when coming off a loss. Take the points with ULL. |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Jets | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Jacksonville/NY Jets 8:15: Last December, the Jets gashed the Jaguars on the ground for 273 yards rushing en route to a 26-21 home win. Zach Wilson threw for a mere 100 yards but did more damage with his feet (97 yards). Jets lost their rushing mojo when Breece Hall went down at Denver. Jaguars' defense still vulnerable vs the run but have the offense clicking as QB Lawrence coming into his own in his second season at the helm And a healthy versatile RB Etienne is surely helping the successful transition. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson still going through growing pains in his second year running the offense and Jax defense, which has created 21 turnovers, is licking their chops watching film on Wilson. We'll grab the points with the upward trending Jaguars. |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 36.5 | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Jets 8:15: This series has gone "over" 5 straight and "over" in 5 of the last 6 overall. I projected about a 39 or 40 'total' for tonight based on the inclement weather, defensive prowess of the Jets, and lack of offense by the Jets. Therefore, a few points of value with the "over" here. Both teams have had turnover issues - which leads to sudden change points. Jaguars have cleaned their turnovers up over their winning streak as Lawrence has been razor sharp as the offense is humming. Jets' offense stuck in neutral with Wilson at QB but did gut the Jaguars last year on the ground with 273 yards rushing en route to 26-21 win on this field. Jax is 8-1 O/U in their last 9 road games and 4-0 O/U in their last 4 overall. They're also 5-0 O/U in December. We'll go "over". |
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12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor -3.5 | 30-15 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
Air Force/Baylor 7:30: Great season for AF but schedule maker was kind. Last game of the season vs San Diego State was their biggest win. As for Baylor, they slugged it out in the Big12 including trading blows with CFP #3 TCU. HC Aranda was upset with defense this year and fired his DC and Special Teams/Safeties coaches. Aranda takes over the defense and that's a good thing. He was LSU's DC when they won the National Championship in 2019. Aranda will see to it that attention to detail is made in assignment football against the dangerous Flex Bone Option of AF. He's had plenty of time to study it and Baylor has the athletes to execute. We'll jump on Baylor here. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama -3 v. Western Kentucky | 23-44 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky/South Alabama 9:00: Jaguars turned in one of their best seasons ever on account of great defense and an efficient offense. They sport the 4th best rushing defense allowing just 90 YPG. And 14th scoring defense allowing just 20.5 PPG. They'll have their hands full with the potent offense of QB Austin Reed and company. Look for the Jaguars to pound 1000+ yard rusher Webb to keep the Hilltoppers' offense off the field. Hilltoppers' stop unit gives up a ton of yards. And QB Carter Bradley has a few quality receivers in Wayne (795 yards) and Lacy (756 yards). Jaguars the call. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo -3.5 v. Liberty | 21-19 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Liberty/Toledo 7:30: Liberty was cruising along and even upset Arkansas November 5th. Then the crap hit the fan when word circulated that HC Hugh Freeze was going to Auburn. The Flames plummeted on an 0-3 SU/ATS slide capped off by a blowout loss to lightweight New Mexico State. Liberty will be in good hands after the season with Jamey Chadwell who went 31-6 SU over the last 3 seasons with Coastal Carolina. But as for now, the Flames will have to make do with interim HC Josh Aldridge (LB/DC). It sure looks like Liberty players shut it down on him. As for Toledo, they're coming off their first MAC title win under Jason Candle. They haven't won a bowl game under him yet in 4 attempts. Candle has his best squad yet. A solid defense led by All-American corner Mitchell. And offensively, versatile QB Finn. We'll lay the points with Toledo. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/San Jose State 3:30: Eastern Michigan hadn't been to a bowl game since 1987 before Chris Creighton arrived. Including today, he's taken the Eagles bowling five times since 2016. They've covered 3 of those 4 bowls keeping it competitive. EM has been a solid traveler under Creighton and always dangerous as a dog. Eagles are a hungry scrappy team that stays in games. SJS has a great defense but lays eggs in bowl games under Brennan. Take the points. |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
Rams/Packers 8:15: Rams coming off an emotional high after their epic win over the Raiders last Thursday. Baker Mayfield, claimed off the waiver wire two days prior, capped off the comeback with a 98 yard drive. It was truly a remarkable feat considering he had limited plays to his knowledge, no time to get into a rhythm with receivers, not to mention calling the pass protection and signal count. What was also remarkable, was the ineptitude of the Raiders' defense which made major blunders (penalties) to allow the Rams back in the game. I don't see lightning striking twice in Green Bay tonight. Mayfield was also good in his early outings in Cleveland coming off bench improvising and ripping the ball downfield. Packers more disciplined defensively in all areas of their game and won't make the mistakes the Raiders did. Now that Mayfield had time to settle in a bit, we'll look for the last year's Mayfield, and even this year's Carolina Mayfield to emerge. Not an easy task for the Rams to transition to 20 degrees tonight. They have not had success against Green Bay. Packers have covered this series eight straight times, including four as a favorite of 7 or more. Rams still have a patchwork offensive line, no Cooper Kupp or Aaron Donald. Packers should roll. |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut v. Marshall -11.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Marshall/Connecticut 2:30: U Conn had a solid season as Jim Mora Jr. guided the Huskies to their first bowl appearance since 2015. Fortunately for the Huskies, their schedule enabled them to have some success. A win over Fresno State was doable primarily because the Bulldogs' starting QB was out. A win over Liberty happened November 12th on account of heavy Hugh Freeze rumors circulating he was going to Auburn. Huskies have a long way to go on the recruiting trail. U Conn does have a decent run game with Victor Rosa but that's as far as it goes. QB Zion Turner poses no threat on the ground (2.8 YPC) and no vertical passing game. Huskies face the #7 scoring defense in the nation, #5 vs the run, and well-schooled in the secondary. The pedestrian offense of U Conn should be suffocated Monday afternoon. On the other hand, Marshall does have some athletic prowess with a well-balanced offense (205 YPG rush/200 YPG pass) and a decent signal caller in Laborn. This Marshall team knocked off Notre Dame September 10th and beat some quality Sun Belt teams. We'll lay the points. |
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12-18-22 | Giants v. Commanders -4 | 20-12 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Broncos | 15-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Patriots +1.5 v. Raiders | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Steelers +3 v. Panthers | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Bills 8:15: The cold weather stigma on Miami in December won't go away, and it shouldn't; after all, in December, they're a disturbing 0-9 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off s SU win. And after a red-hot start, Tua has been catching flak on his fallout after back-to-back sub-par performances He completed just 45.9% of his passes over the last two weeks, including against the depleted secondary of the Chargers last week. And yes, it's going to be a cold, snowy, windy night Saturday evening. The only other time Tua has played in freezing temperatures was January 2nd at Tennessee last year. He had a horrible day in a 34-3 blowout loss. He and the Dolphins have a lot to prove tonight. They're just 2-7-1 ATS at Buffalo. And without a run game (#29 in league with just 89.8 YPG), Tua will be in for a long night against the #2 scoring defense in the league. Cold weather grown Josh Allen should get his game back on track tonight against a defense that allows 31.4 PPG. Buffalo the call. |
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12-17-22 | Ravens +3 v. Browns | 3-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
Ravens/Browns 4:30: Browns still mathematically alive for playoffs but face an uphill battle and it starts today. Ravens, 12-3 ATS in December, are playing sound football and winning games despite QB Jackson sidelined. Backup QB Huntley got the nod and got the job done. He's in concussion protocol but did participate in walk through Thursday. He or 3rd string Anthony Brown have, a solid supporting cast with a now deep backfield as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back in the fray behind a very good offensive line. And Ravens' offense always more productive with Mark Andrews in the lineup. Cleveland defense underachieving (27th in league) allowing nearly 25 PPG. On the other hand, #8 ranked scoring defense on their game ever since All Pro MLB Roquan Smith was brought on before the trade deadline. The Ravens' defense has been outstanding over last 3 weeks. Cleveland's QB DeShaun Watson still rusty after a few starts and he's got his hands full again today. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in this series including 23-20 win on October 23rd. Browns' HC Stefanski can't be trusted as a favorite off a SU loss at 3-10 ATS. Solid traveling Ravens should get it done again. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Colts/Vikings 1:00: Vikings have a hard time putting teams away because of a yielding defense. Sure, Colts' offense is pedestrian but has talented players in RB Jonathon Taylor, WRs Pierce, Pittman Jr., Campbell. And the offensive line has been solid. Turnovers have killed the Colts this year as Matt Ryan has seen his better days; however, there might be some old magic left after a bye week and against a defense that's allowed an average of 30.4 PPG over the last 5 games. A few weeks ago, Colts hung tough with Dallas for 3 quarters until the turnovers started and they unraveled. Vikings don't nearly have the defense Dallas does. Colts are 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points. They're also 5-1 ATS on Saturday and covered 4 straight in this series. Colts' defense has a ball hawking secondary, and a solid pass rush. Vikings just 1-7 ATS vs an opponent off a bye week and just 3-9 ATS vs teams below .500. Take the points with the Colts. |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA -1 | 18-12 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
12-16-22 | Miami-OH +12 v. UAB | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
49ers/Seahawks 8:15: On paper, SF clearly the call; after all, they've won 6 straight (5-1 ATS), coming off blowout win over Tampa Bay. They have the #1 defense in the NFL, and Brock Purdy is taking SF by storm guiding the offense. On the other hand, Seattle has lost 4 straight ATS, has a defense that's been gashed in 3 of last 4 games, and Geno Smith has thrown 4 INTs over last 3 games. Easy call, right? Hold everything. Seattle not an easy out under Pete Carroll. Remember, no other coach holds his amazing prime time record. He's 11-2 ATS at home off a double digit ATS loss, and 10-2 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. He has Kenneth Walker III back in the fray to fuel the run game, pretty healthy offensive line to ward off the smoke SF will bring, and 8-1 ATS as a division dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. And remember, Purdy is a rookie, and the Seahawks' ball hawking secondary is talented with C Woolen, C Jackson, FS Diggs. This will be Purdy's first road test at the ridiculously loud Lumen Field with 72,000 screaming fans. And he's short one big weapon in Deebo Samuel. And keep in mind SF is just 2-8-1 ATS in Seattle, 2-5 ATS Week 15, 1-3 ATS as a Thursday Night road favorite, and 0-6 ATS on Thursday night off a SU win. Seattle will be ready tonight to avenge the Week 2 loss. |
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12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -1.5 | 87-60 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
UCLA/MD 9:00: MD off two straight losses should end the skid here. The Terps are now facing their 4th straight ranked opponent and the hardened schedule will surely pay dividends. Defensive oriented Wisconsin and Tennessee were able to slow the Terps down on the road, but the Terps can get back to a higher tempo vs the prolific scoring UCLA Bruins. Bruins have faced a relatively light schedule, and this will be only their second true road game. Terps are 9-1 ATS on their home floor and we'll grab them here. |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
Memphis/Alabama 9:00: Alabama with an impressive win on the road over then #1 Houston on Saturday. That was the second #1 team they knocked off this year. The other was NC on November 27th. After that win, they did not cover the big number (19) at home vs South Dakota State. They find themselves in for another tough outing here; after all, Memphis is coming off with an impressive win over a very good Auburn team on a neutral floor. Kendrie Davis and Williams are big time athletes for the Tigers. And they have great support from a deep bench. Tigers are ultra-competitive vs very good teams; as a matter of fact, they're 13-4 ATS vs teams above .600. Good situation for the Tigers where they're 4-1 ATS on the road off 3+ home games. Tide has not been a good money winner under Oats. 10-22-2 ATS slide, 6-14 ATS off a SU win, and just 5-15 ATS at home. Take Hardaway's athletic bunch and the points! |
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12-12-22 | Patriots -1.5 v. Cardinals | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Patriots/Cardinals 8:15: Patriots have a bit more stability in their program now. Arizona enduring another Kingsbury flop down the stretch of the season. Cardinals have been a brutal team in December. They've lost 4 of their last 5 December tilts and dropped 9 of their last 12 home games. Cardinals are coming off a bye week so they're healthier; however, with playoffs just about a distant memory, doubt that they took advantage of the extra prep time to their maximum benefit. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF at 2-10 ATS. They're also 0-8 ATS on MNF vs non-division opponent off a SU loss. Patriots are actually 5-0 ATS as a road favorite on MNF. I do realize that the Patriots' offense is brutal with Patricia and Judge as an integral part of it. Mac Jones will have to make do with them for at least the rest of the season. Fortunately, the Patriots have a decent defense (6th in points allowed). Can't say the same for Arizona - 32nd in NFL in points allowed at 27 PPG. And the Arizona offense has been stuck in neutral for most of the season. NE has had trouble with mobile QBs (Justin Fields/Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson) so that is a major concern with Murray; however, we'll look for Belichick to finally figure it out tonight. Belichick 7-1 ATS off double digit loss vs less than .500 team. And he's 12-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Patriots do have something to play for now that the Jets lost. NE the call. |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Chargers 8:20: Chargers have their share of injuries to star players (Bosa, J.C. Jackson, Derwin James, Slater, Pipkins III) and because of that, they're home underdogs - rightfully so. However, as long as Herbert is on the field and he has capable receivers, they're in the game. The good news is Keenan Allen is healthy and matchup nightmare Mike Williams (ankle) will be back in a limited role. Herbert also gets his C Lindsley back. And versatile RB Ekeler (85 receptions and 5 TD catches) is healthy. Throw WR Palmer and TE Everett in the mix and that quick passing game of LA is dangerous. Miami pass defense has been vulnerable (233.5 YPG - 22nd in league). Sure, Miami's explosive weaponry will get their share of points against a yielding Chargers' defense, but Herbert and company should be able to trade points successfully. We'll take the points with the desperate home team clinging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
Panthers/Seahawks 4:25: Going into this season, Seahawks' Carroll was 2-10 O/U as a favorite vs a less than .500 foe. That trend has flipped this year as the Seahawks are 3-0 O/U as chalk vs losing teams. Seahawks' defense in mid-October through mid-November actually did well keeping teams out of the end zone. Over the last few weeks, however, they're giving up chunks of yards on the ground resulting in scoring drives. Carolina has a good one in D'Onta Foreman (4.5 YPC). Good possibility he'll help open the pass game for resurging QB Darnold who showed promise last week vs a very good Denver defense. On the other hand, Seahawks' #9 ranked offense is finding the end zone this season. RB depth is questionable Geno Smith still has the explosive receiving weaponry to torch secondaries and Carolina's is a middle of the road one, if that. This series has gone 6-0 O/U in its last 6 meetings and 6-0 O/U in Seattle. Panthers are 5-0 O/U last 5 road vs teams with winning home records. "Over" it is. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Eagles/Giants 1:00: Eagles clearly playing like a Super Bowl contender with no glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Yet, they have had their difficulties with the Giants, especially at home where NY won and covered the last two. In those two, Hurts threw for just 51.7%. And in his last stop in the Meadowlands, he was picked off three times in a 13-7 defeat. Of course, AJ Brown addition changes the whole scheme of things. He's a matchup nightmare with anyone in single coverage. Giants are a yielding defense but do limit explosive plays and toughen in the red zone. Giants allow 21 PPG good for 12th in the league. Philadelphia defense for the most part rock solid but they've had some issues stopping the run. Washington and Houston were able to outrush them. Giants' 1000+ yard rusher - Barkley (neck) overdue to get on track after averaging a measly 2.8 YPC over last 3 games. And QB Daniel Jones continues to be dangerous on the ground - racking up 522 yards. Eagles are coming off a blowout win but just 2-6-1 ATS after scoring 30+. Giants, on a 7-2 ATS run, have cleaned up turnover problem this season (5th in league) under Daboll. And Eagles not having star S Gardner-Johnson (6 INT, 55 solo tackles) big loss. And offensively, no TE Goedert (IR) stymies the pass game a bit. We'll look for the fighting Giants to hang tough today in the Meadowlands. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -130 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Vikings/Lions 1:00: Lions now 11-4 ATS at home under Campbell. Lions looking to avenge Week 3 loss but cover to Vikings. Vikings are a resilient team that delivers late game heroics, including that September 25th matchup in which they trailed 24-14 entering the 4th quarter. But Lions have learned to clean up their game lately. They've won 5 straight ATS including 4-1 SU. During that run they've cut down significantly on turnovers. Goff has been machine like in precision with 8 TD passes and only 1 INT over last 6 games. Lions are a rare favorite here and that seems dangerous considering the Vikings late game surges; however, Lions have covered 4 straight in this series and are actually 7-0 ATS as home favorites of less than 8 points vs greater than .400 opponent. This is their 2nd favorite role on the year (1-1 SU/ATS) and we'll lay-up to 2 points here or get on money line at a reasonable price. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here. |
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12-10-22 | Navy -2.5 v. Army | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Navy/Army 3:00: Both teams well versed on each other which is why this game has been low scoring for 16 straight years. Both teams will throw about 4 or 5 passes combined, if that. Navy has the edge in defense where they're 4th in the nation against the run allowing just 85.8 YPG. On the other hand, Army defense allows a generous 193.6 YPG (115th). And Navy had the tougher schedule. They played the likes of SMU, Houston, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and UCF: All potent offensive teams. Army did well vs UTSA early in the season, got blasted by Wake Forest. Both teams, of course, lost to Air Force in competitive games. Army has a bit more experienced QB in Cade Ballard. And the Midshipmen won't have their season starter Lavatai (knee) but Arline (4 YPC) came in and did a nice job down the stretch with a bit more running strength. Maynor, who has a better arm is used occasionally. Their go-to-runner is FB FoFana (749 yards/6 TDs). He's a beast of a FB and can gut a weak interior as the game goes on. Navy the call. |
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12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 222.5 | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Sacramento/Cleveland 7:40: This series is 1-5 O/U in its last 5, including 0-2 O/U at Cleveland. Surely, Donovan Mitchell adds a new offensive dimension to the Cavaliers this season, but he fits in schematically defensively. Cavaliers the #1 defensive team in the NBA allowing 104.9 PPG. Sacramento, on the other hand, is the #2 offensive team in the NBA led by De'aaron Fox. Kings lose ground defensively (allow 116 PPG), however, but defensive minded Brown constantly reinforces defensive technique. Kings are 1-5 O/U on the road vs teams with winning records. Cavs on an 0-6 O/U run and 0-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. We'll stay under here. |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
Raiders/Rams 8:15: Rams' defense getting toasted by the pass. Over the last 3 weeks, the Rams are 1 of 3 teams that have allowed 300+ passing yards per game giving up 2.3 TDs per game. Enter the hot Raiders led by Derek Carr who has multiple TD passes in 5 straight games including against pretty good pass defenses (Denver, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers). What has aided Carr, is the revved up running game of Josh Jacobs behind an offensive line that's found its footing; consequently, that opens the play action game with the always dangerous Davonte Adams - who has been on a tear. On the other side of the ball, Raiders' defense leaves a lot to be desired. Injuries in secondary and on the line. And they yield yards and explosive plays; however, not sure if Rams can take advantage of it. Rams' offensive line still has issues, QB Wolford is questionable with sore neck, which leaves versatile Bryce Perkins and newly acquired Mayfield. Mayfield most likely won't see action. You don't learn a system, signals, line calls in week. Just not going to happen. Nevertheless, still no direction to this offense without Kupp and Stafford. Cam Akers did show promise in the run game last week, but Las Vegas should have that strength well studied. Raiders did show promise in pass rush last week as Chandler Jones finally showed up to help out always hustling Maxx Crosby. Raiders have a tendency to make games interesting and not super confident laying points with them. We'll trend lightly with the Raiders tonight. |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams UNDER 43.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
Raiders/Rams 8:15: This series is 1-4 O/U. Rams are 8-17 O/U in last 25 home games. McVay 2-9 O/U at home off SU/ATS loss. We'll stay "under". |
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12-07-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State -4 | 67-58 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Penn State 6:30: Michigan State running out of gas early. They've already had a rough very competitive traveling schedule, then came off a tournament where they went a respectable 2-1, then got blown out at ND and got upset at home to Northwestern on December 4th. They've had some injuries to key players (Akins and Hall). Now they have to travel to a pretty strong Penn State venue. Nittany Lions (6-2) are off a double OT loss at Clemson on November 29th. They've had time to prep and deliver. Lions are dangerous from the perimeter launching 12 per game at a 40% clip. Lions are 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and on a sweet 21-7-1 ATS run. We'll give them the edge here at Bryce Jordan Center. |
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12-06-22 | St. Louis v. Iona +1.5 | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
St. Louis/Iona 7:00: These teams went at it last year with the Billikens sneaking by 68-67 in St. Louis. Iona covered the 3'-point spread. Pitino looks to avenge that defeat today in NY. The Gaels are on an 18-0 SU run at the Hynes Athletic Center, including 3-0 this season. Both teams play fast and score well in transition. Statistically, the Gaels are a bit better at it (16 PPG vs 14.5 PPG). This is the Billikens second true road game. They did compete well at Auburn November 27th losing 65-60 covering the 7 points. Gaels know what to expect and will be fired up for this one. They've picked up the tempo since leading scorer Slazinski (18 PPG) went down with appendicitis. Clayton Jr. headlines the show with two other double-digit scorers. Iona is better disciplined defensively and takes care of the ball - 4th Nationally in assist to turnover ratio (1.78). Take Iona. |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -3 | 16-17 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Saints/Bucs 8:15: Both teams in contention for division title. Bucs (5-6) can pull away with some breathing room with a win and they should deliver vs the struggling Saints (4-8). Saints gave TB problems last season with a season sweep. That was under Sean Payton. This season, Saints don't have near the swagger under Dennis Allen. Saints sport a minus 15 turnover margin. Offensively, they've had spurts of offensive success but turn the ball over way too much (21). Defensively, they do get back Lattimore who's given Mike Evans problems in the past; however, he hasn't played since Week 5. TB delivered the win in Week 20-10 at New Orleans. Dennis Allen a poor 0-6 ATS with revenge vs opponent off a SU loss. Look for Brady and company to bounce back strong in this spot. They're 11-2 ATS as favorites of less than 7 points off a SU non-division favorite loss. TB the call. |
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12-04-22 | Colts v. Cowboys -10 | 19-54 | Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Chargers +2.5 v. Raiders | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Chargers/Raiders 4:25: In recent history, this series has been closely contested with the dog going 19-8 in the last 27 meetings. Chargers are 5-2 ATS when playing on the road vs the Raiders. Sure, Chargers have a few offensive linemen (C Linsley, RT Pipkins III) out, but Herbert's quick release, the return of crafty veteran Kennan Allen, emergence of Palmer, and the ability of RB Ekeler to get open make up for that. LA will have to find a way to chip or slow down Maxx Crosby. I trust they will. On the other hand, Chargers' defense has its problems but have playmakers like Mack and Derwin James who can make big plays. We'll look for the Chargers to stick around and deliver. ' |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks -7 v. Rams | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 39 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Rams 4:05: It seems ridiculous to lay a TD on the road in a division game with a team that's been gutted by the run in back-to-back games; however, this game dictates to do the ridiculous. Rams without defensive impact player Aaron Donald (ankle) and starting QB Stafford (concussion). Sure, Wofford has proven to be a viable backup but he has limited weapons with no Cooper Kupp (IR) and Allen Robinson ((R). Rams' HC McVay is only as good as his horses will allow him to be. Today, he doesn't have the horses to compete at a high level. On the other hand, Carroll does. Although a flu was going around earlier in the week, the Seahawks are relatively healthy. Defensive minded Carroll will figure out the leaky run-stop-unit especially against a reshuffled Rams' offensive line with a running game 31st in the league. The Rams are a 1/2 yard short of being the worst offense in the NFL. All said and done, Seattle's lost 3 straight to division rival Los Angeles and need a win here to keep pace with NFC West leader SF. Pete Carroll is an amazing 13-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. I won't bet against him in this situation. Seattle the call. |
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12-04-22 | Commanders -2 v. Giants | 20-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Commanders/Giants 1:00: Commanders on a 6-1 run primarily because they've won the turnover battle during that run. They're plus-7 in turnover margin the last 7 weeks. They were minus-7 in their 1-4 start to the season. Moreover, they've also won the run game battle in 5 of their last 7 games enabling Heinicke to work successfully his wealth of talented receivers. On the other hand, the Giants, after a hot start, are starting to stumble. They've lost 3 of their last 4 SU in which they lost the run game battle. In the first nine games, Barkley ran for 931 yards. The last two weeks, he's been held to 61 yards on 26 carries. Washington defense plays the run well; moreover, they get Chase Young back today to help feast on Daniel Jones and the beat-up Giants' offensive line. And defensively, Giants' dealing with injuries. Washington relatively healthy going into this one and have a bye next week. We'll look for their roll to continue. |
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12-04-22 | Titans +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Titans/Eagles 1:00: Titans a dangerous road team that's won 5 straight ATS on the road (4-1 SU). Eagles are a legitimate NFC contender with a potent Top 3 offense. But Titans have an underrated defense that stiffens in the red zone (18.6 PPG allowed. Eagles on the other hand, have few flaws; however, they're missing their ball hawking S Gardner-Johnson (lacerated kidney), and although Blankenship looked solid in that reserve role last week, he's still just a rookie. Look for King Henry and the play action game of Tannehill and company to get it going this week. Eagles have been vulnerable to strong run games this season. Titans are a sweet 18-7 ATS on the road vs the NFC East including 9-1 ATS in the last 10. Tennessee the call. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Purdue/Michigan 8:00: Michigan off a huge upset of Ohio State. Harbaugh should have them prepared and at even keel tonight facing the Boilermakers. Michigan is well rooted in the CFP so this won't be an absolute must win. For Purdue, they have nothing to lose. And let it be known, Purdue is dangerous under HC Brohm vs ranked opponents going 7-6 SU; moreover, he's an incredible 22-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points including 2-0 SU/ATS in that role this season. Take the points. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas State/TCU Noon: Undefeated TCU in the driver's seat to create their own destiny and secure a birth in the CFP. Even a competitive loss most likely won't eliminate them from the Final Four. TCU has explosive skill personnel (RB Miller, QB Duggan, WR Johnston), a veteran offensive line and solid defensively. But we won't discount the surging K State Wildcats that went on a 4-1 SU/ATS run after losing to TCU October 22nd. They had TCU on the ropes in the first half building an 18-point lead before the Horned Frogs exploded for 28 unanswered to secure the win in Fort Worth. The 'Cats made nice adjustments going forward averaging 40.2 PPG over their last 5 games. Don't discount the coaching ability of Chris Klieman. This guy won 4 FCS National Championships in 5 seasons while at North Dakota State University. He knows how to prepare for these big games, and he has the personnel to deliver. QB Will Howard has been rock solid in 5 appearances (13 TD/2 INT) after taking over for Adrien Martinez (leg). And 1200+ yard rusher Vaughn has a veteran line to keep him rolling here. Defensively, K-State allows just 19.4 PPG (15th in the nation). On the other hand, Sonny Dykes, who's done an unbelievable job in coaching TCU up this season, does have something to prove. He's had trouble in closing out seasons; as a matter of fact, he's a money burning 0-4 SU/ATS in his final game of the season while at SMU, including 0-1 SU/ATS in Bowls. We'll look for K-State to deliver. |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -2 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Utah/USC 8:00: USC a win away from playing in the CFP for the first time. With OSU on their tail, they must win and possibly convincingly to deliver no doubt in CFP Management Committee's mind. Utah no joke; after all, they're well coached under Whittingham and will always play hard. And on paper, Utah has a much better defense, solid special teams and a productive Top 20 offense. However, a closer look reveals Utah has not covered all season vs a winning team (0-4 ATS). And Cameron Rising had a big opportunity at Oregon November 19th to take Utah to another level but flopped miserably with three interceptions costing his team the win. Sure, he helped deliver a controversial SU win (loss ATS) over USC October 15th in the comfortable confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. Tonight, in Las Vegas, I see the Heisman Trophy frontrunner - Caleb Williams and the explosive, yet efficient (1 turnover) USC offense getting the job done. And don't put a whole lot of stock into the yielding defense of USC (allow 405 YPG). They have a ball hawking secondary and created 21 takeaways - 2nd nationally! USC delivers! |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +3.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Bills/Patriots 8:15: Patriots in a desperation mode with an almost "must win" scenario. Bills and Miami are tied in the AFC East while New England sits in 4th place behind the Jets. Huge revenge match for NE. They had nearly a year to stew over their blowout loss in the playoffs to Buffalo. Tonight, they're catching the 1-4 ATS Bills. Bills' Josh Allen not the same since that November 6th loss to the Jets. He's dealing with the lingering effects of an elbow (UCL) injury. Even before the injury, he's had uncharacteristic interception problems. Over the last 5 games, he's thrown 7 INTs. It won't help that his RT Dawkins (ankle) is out. Patriots' #4 ranked defense should have an adequate plan on stopping Allen, not only through the air but on foot; after all, he leads the team in rushing too. Let's hope Patriots' defense learned their lesson from getting gutted by QB Power on October 24th by Justin Fields of the Bears. Look for NE' defense to buckle down with Judon (13 sacks) and company. On the offensive end, Mac Jones actually playing pretty well. No interceptions over the last 3 games. He won't have Von Miller (knee) racing him down off the edge. And Jones gets back his starting center David Andrews tonight. The inclement weather (cold and windy) will most likely have RB Stevenson carrying lots of the load with Damien Harris (thigh) out. Bills have been vulnerable against the run over the last 5 games as well. Patriots have a solid winning history on Thursday nights, and we'll give them the edge here. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Kansas State v. Butler | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Kansas State/Butler 6:30: Both teams coming off tournaments overseas. Kansas won theirs in Cayman Island while Butler fell short in the Bahamas. Kansas has yet to lose a game this year and is talented under their first year HC Tang. Butler no pushover especially with Thad Matta now running the show. Matta has come full circle in his career beginning a very successful career at Butler before leaving to Xavier, then Ohio State and now back at Butler. Matta has an amazing career coaching record of 74% including multiple NCAA Tournament appearances, including a pair of Final Fours. He has talent to work with in Jayden Taylor and Chuck Harris. Butler has an amazing 67-2 SU mark at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Like their chances here in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. Butler the call. |
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11-29-22 | Maryland -12.5 v. Louisville | 79-54 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
Maryland/Louisville 7:00: Major mismatch. Two teams heading in opposite directions. #22 Maryland is ascending under new HC Kevin Willard while Louisville hitting the skids under first year HC Kenny Payne. Maryland scoring 83 PPG while allowing just 61.3 PPG en route to their 6-0 start. Louisville allowing a generous 72 PPG while scoring a measly 58.7 PPG (355th nationally). Only way Terps can't win and cover is if they sleep walk through this one. I doubt that will be the case since it is a nationally televised game (ACC/Big Ten Challenge). Julian Reese and company should dominate the paint. Maryland cruises. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers +3 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Steelers/Colts 8:15: When Indianapolis is committed to the run with Jonathan Taylor, they do well. Under Saturday, they started running the football more; consequently, Taylor ran for 147 vs the Raiders and 84 vs Philadelphia. It surely helped Ryan settle in a bit and not turn the ball over. Ryan has been sacked 29 times this season in nine starts, including 4 last week. Pittsburgh brings to the field a better run-stop-unit than LV and Philadelphia. Steelers are 6th in the NFL against the run allowing 103.4 YPG. Myles Jack has been instrumental in helping in that area this year. Steelers will surely look to neutralize Taylor and, with T.J. Watt having a game under his belt following his injury, look to tee off on Ryan. Last year's Defensive MVP is a an offensive game wrecker. Heyward and improving Highsmith (9 sacks) give Pitt a formidable pass rush. Moreover, ball hawking FS Fitzpatrick is getting healthy again. Offensively, Steelers not prolific offensively, but getting better. RB Harris is starting to find room behind his line. He ran for 90 last week vs a pretty good Bengals' defense. And Pickett has completed a respectable 65.4% of his passes with no interceptions the last two games. Steelers aren't going to pack it in under Tomlin. Tomlin's 5-0 as a less than .500 team off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss. And he's got a solid record as a MNF road dog at 12-8 ATS. Steelers the call. |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 41 m | Show | |
Raiders/Seahawks 4:05: Seahawks coming off a bye week after losing to TB in Germany. They're relatively healthy and should get the run game cooking with Kenneth Walker III behind an offensive line that seems to improve every week. And Geno Smith is feeding off the success of Wallker III with 73% completion and 108 passer rating (#2 in NFL). Seahawks' defense has also improved dramatically starting in mid-October. Raiders coming off a win at Denver but haven't won two straight all season. Seahawks won and covered two straight in this series and we'll look for the better coached Seahawks to deliver at home today. |
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11-27-22 | Chargers -2.5 v. Cardinals | 25-24 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Broncos v. Panthers | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
Denver/Carolina 1:00: Denver is the lowest scoring team in the NFL with just 14.7 PPG but they do have a top tier defense that keeps them in games. Carolina is not much better offensively. They're 31st in total YPG produced and average just 18.8 PPG. And Sam Darnold, who hasn't had success at this level, will get his first start of the season after Baker Mayfield flopped again in his bid to earn the starting QB position. Panthers' defense, which is lower tier in the league (19th), not good enough to overcome Carolina's offensive inefficiencies, including 15 turnovers (27th in league). Russell Wilson overdue to have a decent game despite the skill personnel injuries. Denver the call. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Bengals/Titans 1:00: Revenge game for Vrabel and the Titans. Back on Jan 22nd in last season's post season play, Titans beat the Bengals every way imaginable except on the scoreboard. Titans sacked Burrows an incredible nine times but couldn't close the deal. Bengals most likely won't have superstar WR Chase (hip) back just yet. And Joe Mixon is in concussion protocol. Meanwhile, red hot ever since that blowout MNF loss at Buffalo on September 19th. Titans have won 7 of their last 8 games SU and 8-0 ATS run. Tannehill has been rock solid last two games as Burks (who I mentioned last week would step up) is emerging as a serious receiving threat to fill the void of the departed A.J. Brown (Eagles). And King Henry should get loose against a mediocre Bengals' run stop unit. On the other side of the ball, Titans yield in yardage but tighten in the red zone. It won't help that Autry (6.5 sacks) is out but Titans do get back Bud Dupree to help fill the void. Vrabel a sweet 11-3 ATS as a dog with revenge. Take the Titans. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 42 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Bengals/Titans 1:00: Both of these offenses have gotten into rhythm. Joe Burrow has been on fire over the last few games as the Bengals dropped 42 and 37 on the Panthers and the Steelers, respectively. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been sharp over the last few games as well. Bengals' defense is yielding. Titans are 12-5-1 O/U after accumulating 250+ passing yards previously, and they're 11-5 O/U in November; moreover. Titans are 10-0 O/U at home vs .600 or less non division opponent. Bengals 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 30+. "Over" the call. |
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11-27-22 | Texans v. Dolphins -13.5 | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Texans/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins well rested and relatively healthy after coming off bye week. And that's bad news for a down and out Houston team coming off another loss last week. Houston benched QB Mills and will go with journeyman Kyle Allen. Not much of an upgrade. Look for Chubb and company to give him a rude welcome. On the other hand, yielding Houston defense could be in serious trouble with one of their top corners and #1 draft choice - Stingley (hamstring) most likely out; consequently, the Dolphins dynamic duo of Waddle and Hill should add significantly to their season totals in yards and TDs as they continue to mesh well with QB Tua. And if the Dolphins choose to run, they should be able to gut the worst run stop unit in the NFL that gives up 179 YPG. We'll lay the wood with Miami. |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame +5 v. USC | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/USC 7:30: Recently, ND has gotten the best of this series at 4-0 SU; however, this year's USC loaded with talent under new HC Lincoln Riley. He brought with him plenty of dudes including Heisman favorite - Caleb Williams and stole big play receiver Addison away from Pittsburgh. It surely will be Williams' Heisman moment if he can lead his team to victory over the toughest defense that he's faced all season. ND has a well versed secondary and can get to the QB (3 sacks per game). And ND HC Marcus Freeman has his team playing great football at the right time. The Irish are on a 5-game win streak of 39.8 PPG, including dropping 35 on Clemson. QB Drew Pyne has been efficient this season primarily because he's got a strong run game with Estime and Diggs who have each grinded out 5 YPC. TE Mayer has been Pyne's go-to-guy. USC has not played any team worth a note outside the offensive minded PAC 12. USC defense has been vulnerable to the pass but do have a nation leading 18 takeaways. I'm going to look for ND to maintain their discipline, hold onto the football and continue their success running the football, eating clock to keep the explosive Caleb Williams and company off the field. Take the points with ND. |
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11-26-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State -18.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Oregon/Oregon State 3:30: Beavers' HC Jonathan Smith has done an outstanding job bringing this football program back to respectability. And any team that comes into Corvallis, better be prepared for a fight. The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games under Smith, including battling #5 ranked USC to a 17-14 SU loss but cover (+5). Oregon is coming into this one off a physical battle with Utah. The Ducks have a few starting linemen questionable with injuries and QB Nix (leg). Meanwhile, Beavers coming off an impressive beat down of Arizona State on the road. OSU a perfect 9-0 ATS off a SU win of 20+. Beavers' offense efficient with QB Ben Gulbranson (5-1 as a starter) winning the job. He's tossed 8 TD to just 1 INT. The offense revolves around bruising RB Damien Martinez who has rushed for 100+ in 5 straight games. And defensively, OSU sports a very good defense which is #25 in yards allowed and #27 in points allowed (20.3 PPG). OSU has covered 2 of the last 3 in this series including an outright in 2020. Look for the under the radar Beavers to deliver the goods. |
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11-26-22 | Michigan v. Ohio State -7.5 | 45-23 | Loss | -105 | 87 h 25 m | Show | |
Michigan/Ohio State Noon: Revenge game for the Buckeyes, who were embarrassed at Ann Arbor last season. As a result of that loss, Buckeyes made offseason changes in their coaching staff that helped tremendously. They brought in highly successful DC of Oklahoma State's Top 10 defense last season - Jim Knowles. He's reshaped the dynamic of the OSU defense successfully for they're a Top 10 defense in allowing yards per play (5th nationally) and scoring (#10). And he's used a majority of the same personnel. Today, they'll focus on taking away the power run game of Michigan, which was a big problem last year for them. Michigan gutted them for nearly 300 yards! With Michigan's top horse and Heisman Finalist - Blake Corum recovering from a knee injury, it will be an uphill battle. The Wolves struggled to gain traction offensively vs another top tier defense last week at home vs Illinois scoring 19 points. Illinois, however, doesn't have the explosive offense that OSU possesses. QB Stroud, WR Harrison Jr., WR Egbuka are big play skill personnel and, by far, the best offense Michigan has played all season. And the Buckeyes, which are battling some running back injuries themselves, are loaded with skill personnel. Wolves have not fared well in Columbus. They've lost nine straight there since 2001. And btw, OSU 14-1 ATS with revenge vs greater than .500 opponent at home in Big 10 play. Buckeyes deliver. |
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11-25-22 | Florida +10 v. Florida State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida/Florida State 7:30: Florida is coming off a stunner vs Vanderbilt, a team they've dismantled for decades. Look for the Gators to bounce back strong here. Florida has been consistently inconsistent throughout the season and Napier is a well-versed coach who will keep them focused and in the game. Gators need to establish the run like they did so well against TX A&M and S. Carolina to take pressure off versatile QB Richardson. FSU on a hot 4-0 SU/ATS run but not exactly against Murderer's Row: Georgia Tech, Miami U, fading Syracuse, and ULL. Take Florida |
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11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Baylor/Texas Noon: Two teams near evenly matched in a lot of ways. Both with solid run games, good defenses, well coached. Baylor has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series including an outright last season. And Baylor will surely not roll over here after heartbreaking loss last week to TCU. Bears are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, and they're 5-1-1 ATS in Austin. They'll surely try to establish the run game vs Texas; after all, Baylor has grinded out 230+ yards in 4 of its last 5 games behind a mammoth OL. Reese has carried a majority of the load. Shapen is at his best when the run game is cooking. On the other side of the ball, Aranda has developed another rock-solid defense to counter explosive NFL bound RB Bijan Robinson and a solid QB in Ewers. Baylor leads the conference in interceptions in 13. Too many points to give this team. Baylor an amazing 16-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Texas has failed to cover in two attempts this season coming off blowout wins. Baylor the call. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings UNDER 42.5 | 26-33 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Patriots/Vikings 8:20: Both of these teams have had their share of problems converting in the red zone. For the Patriots, with Josh McDaniels no longer coordinating the offense, they're reaching the goal line a poor 42.86% of the time - 31st in NFL just below the Broncos. And over the last 3 weeks, Vikings converting in the red zone just 33.3% of the time. Patriots' defense remains solid against non-running QBs and we're most likely seeing more FG attempts instead of end zone dancing. Pats 3-14 O/U after scoring less than 15 points and 2-7 O/U in November. This series has gone 1-5 O/U in its last 6 meetings, and we'll stay "under" here. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
Miss State/Ole Miss 7:00: Rivalry of Mississippi which went to Ole Miss the last two years. Tonight, we'll look for Mississippi State and veteran QB Will Rogers to finally deliver. The dog has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. The road team is 6-1 ATS. Both teams struggling down the stretch as the Rebels went 1-3 SU while Miss State went 2-2 SU. Kiffin and his Rebels to it on the chin last week at Arkansas. Kiffin is a money burning 2-11 ATS at home when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. Leach had a much easier time last week with a mere scrimmage like blowout of East Tenn State. Roll with the Bulldogs of Miss State in this one. |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | 20-28 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
NY Giants/Cowboys 4:30: Under normal circumstances, NYG would be a nice play here; they've twice responded well the following week off a loss and they're in a revenge mode today from their earlier season 23-16 loss in East Rutherford. Plus, Cowboys have been a turkey on Thanksgiving going an abysmal 1-10 ATS. And Mike McCarthy sports a 1-6 ATS mark after scoring more than 35 points vs an opponent with revenge. For that alone, can't go heavy on Dallas; however, at a personnel standpoint, it's going to be tough for the Giants to move the football with a majority of their offensive line (LG Lemieux, C Feliciano, RT Neal) out and LT Thomas questionable. The Giants couldn't get RB Barkley going last week vs Detroit, running for just 22 yards on 15 carries. If Daniel Jones is expected to go to the air often, it will be big trouble vs the #1 sack team in the NFL. To make matters worse for NY, they lost emerging talented receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (ACL) last week. And the mediocre Giants' defense didn't hold up well vs Detroit last week. The Cowboys' offense is heating up now that Pollard is the full time RB. He's a mismatch nightmare on linebackers. NYG secondary is also in tatters, thinning out weekly. Adore' Jackson (knee) is the latest casualty. Technically, the Giants are just 2-14 ATS on the road with revenge off a SU loss vs a division opponent off a SU win. Sure, this isn't the same old Giants team of recent years, but hard to take the points here with limited horses to work with. We'll tread lightly with the Cowboys. |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions +9.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Bills/Lions 12:30: Dan Campbell now 9-4 ATS at home leading the Lions. The three home games they lost this year were by a combined 11 points. Lions found the winning formula in their current three game win streak: Hold onto the ball (1 turnover) and defensively create turnovers (7 takeaways). Buffalo's QB Josh Allen not completely healthy with UCL injury. Turnovers have been keeping Buffalo from realizing explosive offensive potential. They're 30th in turning ball over. We'll look for the Lions to do what they do best at home under Campbell: Stay in games. Take the points. |
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11-23-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -11 | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Pistons/Jazz 9:10: Detroit has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and coming off a big upset at Denver Tuesday night but should find trouble here. Jazz are coming off a loss on Monday and catch the Pistons unrested. Detroit is not that deep of a team, especially with Cunningham (shin) out. Now they have to travel to another high-altitude venue in Utah. Utah is 5-2 ATS on 1 day rest, covered 4 straight vs team below .400, and covered 4 of their last 5 at home. Lay the wood. |
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11-21-22 | 49ers -7.5 v. Cardinals | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
49ers/Cardinals 8:15: Played in Mexico City at historic Estadio Azteca Stadium. This game started at SF -5' but eventually jumped to 7'/8 where it stands now. Tempted to go with the dog here; after all, Arizona has virtually owned this series to the tune of 7-1 ATS. However, too many injuries on the Cardinals. Their offensive line is thinning and that's a problem vs the fierce pass rush of Bosa and company. QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) is not quite at his top speed and Colt McCoy is most likely to get the nod. I had McCoy and the Cardinals last week vs the Rams and he delivered. But SF defense a different animal. McCoy had quick releases last week on short routes to Hopkins and Moore. The longest completion was for 26 yards. SF sports one of the top defenses in the NFL across the board. Their defensive backs will most likely sit on a lot of those short routes making it a long day for McCoy. Offensively, the 49ers are near full strength with Garoppolo having a wealth of weaponry. Technically, in MNF, Arizona has not measured up well while SF has a rich history of winning. SF well prepared for this one after getting swept last year in this series. And they're looking to make a run for the division lead. Shanahan sports a strong 8-1 ATS mark off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS win. We'll roll with SF. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2 | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Vikings 4:25: Vikings last week laid to rest any doubt that they were a serious contender. Winning in Buffalo in mid-November is a validation and that they should be taken seriously; however, linemakers still cautious by making them a dog here. I'll take the points. Vikings have the run game with Cook (146 rush last week) to put a dent in the Cowboys' run-stop-unit ranked 29th (allow 143 YPG). And Cousins is loaded with skill weaponry now that TE Hockenson is in the mix. He clearly takes the pressure off superstar WR Jefferson and Thielen. Defensively, Minnesota is yielding; however, they capitalize on takeaways (16) and limit scoring (21.2 PPG). Za'Darius Smith, a huge off-season acquisition, teams with Danielle Hunter for a combined 15 sacks helps out the ball hawking secondary led by veterans C Patrick Peterson and S Harrison Smith. Prescott will surely be tested once again. In recent years, this series has been tightly contested with the winning margin at just 4 points or less. Cowboys haven't managed close games well in recent years under McCarthy; moreover, Cowboys a disturbing 0-13 ATS as a conference favorite of less than 4 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. Vikings the call. |
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11-20-22 | Browns +8 v. Bills | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Browns/Bills 1:00: This game was changed mid-week after a heavy snowstorm forecast to roll in Orchard Park around kickoff. Originally, before this game was changed, had the Browns which control one the best runs games in the NFL with Chubb and Hunt behind one of the best lines in the NFL, including Guards Bitonio, Teller and RT Conklin. Game is now at Ford Field in Detroit and I'm still on the Browns. The Bills had several key defensive starters questionable for Sunday due to a circulating illness. And they won't have run stopping MLB Edmunds, LCB White or LDE Rousseau (5 sacks). Bills' defense has gradually eroded since the early season dominance. QB Brissett does a decent job when not asked to air out the ball frequently, which is when the Browns' offense is at its best. On the other hand, QB Allen still having elbow issues and asked to do too much for he is the leading rusher, passer and scored the most TDs. Turnovers are piling up for Buffalo and have a mediocre run game. Browns capable of staying in this one. Browns pretty good off losses too. Stefanski is now 6-0 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off a SU loss. Browns are 7-0 ATS after allowing 35 or more points vs non division opponent. And they're 4-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU home favorite loss. We'll take the points.
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11-20-22 | Lions v. Giants -3 | 31-18 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Lions/Giants 1:00: Giants playing good football en-route to their 7-2 SU/ATS mark. QB Daniel Jones has not thrown an interception in 6 straight games and RB Barkley is leading the league in rushing (931 yards). Defensively, they're yielding but toughen when it counts most. Giants are #2 in red zone defense allowing TDs just 38% of the time. Detroit, which is on a 2-0-win streak, has been extremely competitive and could easily have had a few more wins notched had it not been for critical late game mistakes. With that said, we'll go with the more well-disciplined team under Daboll to deliver the goods. |
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11-20-22 | Bears +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Bears/Falcons 1:00: All of a sudden, the Bears are turning into an NFL offensive powerhouse. They've notched 33, 29, 32, 30 points in their last 4 games, respectively. And in the process, they've played some pretty good defenses in New England, Dallas, Miami. Coming off a loss at home vs Detroit, Bears should get it done against the yielding defense of Atlanta which is in the bottom tier of the NFL for yardage and points allowed. Versatile QB Justin Fields has been the focal point of the offense launching the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Although Herbert (IR) won't play, Montgomery is very capable of getting the bulk of carries. And don't be surprised if Claypool emerges as a pass threat now that he's been worked in the fray for a few weeks; after all, Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Offensively, Atlanta one dimensional as QB Mariota struggling to create a passing game ranked 31st in the NFL. Sure, Bears defense no longer Monsters of the Midway, and getting rid of Roquan Smith is still a mystery to me; however, his replacement Sanborn had 12 tackles, 9 solos and 2 sacks last week. Bears are 6-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points vs the NFC South. And they've covered 5 of the last 7 in Atlanta. Falcons started a red hot 6-0 ATS but have dropped 4 straight. Take the Bears today. |
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11-19-22 | Utah -2 v. Oregon | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Utah/Oregon 10:30: Utah has a deeply rooted football program under Whittingham. Kyle Whittingham has been HC for 18 years at Utah. And he doesn't flip staffs regularly like lots of others in the PAC 12. Oregon, on the other hand, has another first year HC Lanning who coordinated a great defense at Georgia last year; however, a coach has to have the horses to compete at a high level and he doesn't. He's reshuffled the secondary routinely and met his match last week when Washington went into Autzen Stadium and dropped 400+ yards passing on them. Oregon just 9-19 ATS after allowing 288 yards+ passing. Sure, the Ducks have an explosive offense but this is one of the better defenses they faced all year. Utah is a Top 20 defense across the board. The last time Oregon faced a Top 20 defense, they got mauled 49-3 (Georgia in Week 1). Utah blasted Oregon last year late in the regular season 38-7 and then followed up in the PAC12 Playoffs 38-10. And most of the Utes from that team are back including versatile QB Cameron Rising. Utah is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 November tilts and road savvy. Take Utah |
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11-19-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Iowa/Minnesota 4:00 Iowa has owned this series to the tune of 7-0 SU/6-0-1 ATS. But in the bitter cold of Huntington Bank Stadium where temperatures are dropping to 10 degrees with 14 MPH winds, Gophers should pull this one out today. Sure, Iowa is winning games with a Top 10 defense and special teams with little contribution from an offense ranked 130th in the nation. But Iowa offensive struggles should prove to be costly here. Gophers should hitch the wagon to their horse - RB Mo Ibrahim who has 18 consecutive starts with 100+ yards. And he's tough. 70% of his 1261 rush yards have come after contact - most of any Power 5 player. Four quarters of pounding him behind the mammoth Minnesota offensive line which averages 6'5" 318 pounds per person, should eventually cave in the Iowa defense. On the other hand, Gophers' defense very stout - 8th in the nation in yards allowed and 4th in the nation in points allowed. Going to be tough for Iowa to move the football. And I do realize the Hawkeyes are rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run; however, they're 0-12 ATS after three consecutive ATS wins. Minnesota the call. |
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11-19-22 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -18.5 | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
Miami Fla/Clemson 3:30: Miami Fla put a whipping on bottom feeder of the ACC Georgia Tech but traveling to Clemson late in the season will be a major challenge. The 'Canes got good work out of their freshman QB Jacurri Brown last week in his first collegiate start; however, he's taking on a whole different animal today at Clemson. The Hurricanes have not shown they can handle winning at 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Clemson is in a fight to stay relevant in the BCS in hoping one of the Top 4 loses and they impress the committee with blowouts in last 2 games. It should start here. Clemson has blown out Miami in its last 3 meetings. Clemson the call. |
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11-19-22 | Ohio State -27 v. Maryland | 43-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
Maryland/Ohio State 3:30: Maryland continues its late season collapse under Locksley. I had Penn State as the Top Play last week and they didn't disappoint by destroying Maryland. The Terps couldn't generate anything offensively last week. Tagovailoa threw for a paltry 74 yards and was sacked 7 times. Now he has to face the Buckeyes much-improved defense from a season ago. DC Knowles has done some amazing things for the Buckeyes in his first year in Columbus. The Buckeyes have blown out Maryland the last 2 meetings, including 73-14 in 2019 and 66-17 last season. With an even more dominant defense and a continued machine-like offensive attack, another blowout is expected as OSU has its eye on staying relevant in the Top 4. |
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11-17-22 | Nets v. Blazers -2 | 109-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Nets/Blazers 10:10: Tale of two performers in opposite directions. Blazers an overachieving 10-4 SU/11-3 ATS while the underachieving Nets sinking 6-9 SU/5-9-1 ATS slide. Lillard remains a dominant shooting threat and has reliable scoring options. Durant, on the other hand, is surrounded by a mediocre lineup with limited scorers. And the Nets apparently forgot how to defend: Lakers torched them at 48.4% before the Kings lit them up like a torch on Tuesday to the tune of 60.2%. In that game, they were outscored in the paint 66-44. Blazers are 5-0 ATS on 1 day rest, and they're 10-2 ATS after opponent allows 100+ previously. Blazers the call. |
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11-17-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Packers | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
Titans/Packers 8:15: Titans' Derrick Henry was held to a season low 57 yards last week against the tough run stop unit of Denver; however, GB defense is yielding against the run (141 YPG allowed). GB is thin at LB with Rashan Gary and De'Vondre Cambell (knee) out. We'll look for Henry to get back on track to help open the play-action game for QB Tannehill. And Tennessee's defense has come a long way since getting torched by the Bills on MNF September 19th. The secondary has tightened holding up well since that disastrous outing in Buffalo. C Fulton should draw emerging weapon Christian Watson. And despite the injuries at strong safety, Andrew Adams is a capable vet to fill the role. And I like how the Titans' are getting after the QB; hopefully, dominating LDE Jeffrey Simmons (ankle) is good to go tonight to add to that pressure on Aarron Rodgers. Simmons is listed as questionable. Titans' defense has been solid against the run (#2) and slowing down RB Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be vital in handcuffing Rodgers without one of his favorite targets - WR Romeo Doubs. We'll look for the Titans to keep it tight tonight. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan +8 v. Kent State | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-15-22 | Ohio -3.5 v. Ball State | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
Ohio U/Ball State 7:00: Bobcats have serious momentum heading into tonight; after all, they've rattled off 6 straight covers (5-1 SU), and with a win tonight, land a spot in the MAC Championship game. Cardinals, on the other hand, are coming off a loss but are one win away from a Bowl bid. We'll look for Ohio U to deny, or at least postpone that tonight. Ohio U sports arguably the best QB in the conference in Kurtis Rourke. He's thrown for 3000+ yards and has quality playmakers in Cross, Jones and Wiglusz. Although Ball State's defense seems up for the challenge on paper, they've allowed a generous 185 YPG on the ground. Ohio U's run game is pretty effective too with Sieh Bangura running the rock behind a quality offensive line. Ball State offense relies on 1000+ rusher Caron Steele. He's good! But QB John Paddock has made questionable decisions when forced to throw resulting in 11 INTs for the season. Ohio U does not play the pass well but have gotten better secondary play during their winning run. Cards should get their share of points, but I don't believe they can trade points with the well-oiled machine of the Bobcats' offense. Cards are just 3-9 ATS at home vs a winning team and have lost three straight in this series. Ohio U the call. |
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11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Commanders/Eagles 8:15: Commanders should put up more of a fight this time around in this NFC East matchup. Eagles delivered a knockout back on September 25th. In that game, QB Wentz got sacked nine times. Commanders have gotten better since and are on a 3-0-1 ATS run with Heinicke in command of the offense. Heinicke is actually 8-2-1 ATS as a starter. And he'll have Washington's #1 draft pick - Dotson - back for this one. Sure, Eagles have the best corners in the NFL in Slay and Bradbury; however, Guardians have good skill weaponry with McLaurin, Samuel, Sims and even throw in speedster Dyami Brown. And if there is a weakness to the Eagles' defense, it's their run stop unit which got gashed by the 32nd rushing team in the NFL last week. Washington's Robinson and Gibson are able bodied running backs that can move the chains. Defensively, Washington might be outmatched with the explosive #1 offense of Philadelphia. The Commanders do, however, come after the QB recording 23 sacks and are in the top echelon of the NFL in pressure rate. The dog in this series is 3-1-1 ATS. We'll look for the revenge minded Commanders to cover. |
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11-13-22 | Cardinals +2.5 v. Rams | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals/Rams 4:25: Analysis to follow... |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys -3 v. Packers | 28-31 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |