Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-20 | Auburn v. Arkansas +1 | 79-76 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
Auburn/Arkansas 7:00: Couldn't resist taking the Hogs at +1 on their home floor catching Auburn off a huge win over Kentucky. Arkansas doing some good themselves coming off a big win at Alabama. Arkansas in a better position to win here. They've got a disruptive opportunistic defense and take away the perimeter like no other (#1 at 24.7%). Auburn is prone to turnovers on the road and overrated much of the season as their 10-11 ATS record indicates. We'll give the edge to Mason Jones and company as Musselman's bunch gets er done. |
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02-03-20 | Texas +15 v. Kansas | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Texas/Kansas 9:00: On paper, this is a blowout for Kansas; after all, Kansas has a suffocating top 20 defense taking on an offensively challenged Longhorns team ranked 302nd in nation! However, Texas comfortable in this setting. They've covered 5 straight at Kansas. Texas HC Smart finally starting to get his guys to close out games as exhibited at TCU and against Iowa State. Kansas' Azubuike just 11 points in 44 minutes last few games. He's sure to do well here but not a source that will take the Longhorns out of this game. Texas lost the first battle on January 18th 66-57 in Texas. Texas 17-7 ATS with revenge in this series and we're grabbing the boatload of points. |
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02-03-20 | Lafayette +2.5 v. Bucknell | Top | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-03-20 | North Carolina +9.5 v. Florida State | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 46 m | Show |
49ers/Chiefs 6:30: 49ers game plan is pretty basic: Offensively - do what they do best and pound the rock behind FB Kyle Juszczyk with frequent play action. Yes, the stage is not too big for QB Jimmy G, and Kittle should have a big game. 49ers rushed for 471 yards in the post-season and KC's stop unit is vulnerable - ranked 26th in the league. With Mostert and company running the rock and eating clock, Mahomes can stay off the field. When he does get on the field, the 49ers do have the #1 pass defense in the NFL allowing just 169 YPG. Simple enough game plan that other teams have employed, but SF has the personnel and the coaching to stay with it and execute throughout 4 quarters. SF the call. |
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02-01-20 | Purdue -5.5 v. Northwestern | 61-58 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Purdue/Northwestern 9:00: Purdue should finally shake out of their road problems against a Wildcats group that's become the Big 10's whipping boy. Purdue hasn't lived up to its hype this year but should blossom in this spot against an inferior team. |
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02-01-20 | Wichita State -1.5 v. Tulsa | 51-54 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Wichita State/Tulsa 6:00: Shockers a go-to-play on the road especially vs teams above .600. Wichita State sports a 10-2-1 ATS mark in that role and controls a 4-1 ATS mark in this series. Sure, Haith has done an excellent job with the Golden Hurricane this season; however, the 5-0 run stops here. |
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02-01-20 | Houston +3.5 v. Cincinnati | 62-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston/Cincinnati 6:00: Houston remains a half a game ahead of Tulsa in the competitive American Athletic Conference. The Cougars do their best work on the road and like the poise of their backcourt. Sure, Cumberland is the best player on the floor for Cincinnati but Sampson uses his bench well as Fr Guard Mills doing a bang up job. We'll look for the Cougars to take it down the stretch and cover. |
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02-01-20 | Oregon -1.5 v. Stanford | 60-70 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
Oregon/Stanford 6:00: Pritchard and company just too much for the Cardinal tonight. Oregon stays atop the PAC 12. |
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02-01-20 | Colgate -12 v. Holy Cross | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Colgate/Holy Cross 2:00: Raiders in a bad mood after losing at home to Lafayette on 29th. They're 5-0 ATS on Saturdays and should have their way with Holy Cross; after all, Holy Cross (3-19) is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation allowing an abysmal 80.5 PPG on 50% shooting from floor. look for Jordan Burns and company to turn it up a few notches here to stay atop the Patriot League Standings. |
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01-31-20 | VCU v. Rhode Island -1 | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-30-20 | Colorado -4.5 v. UCLA | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Colorado/UCLA 11:00pm: Colorado stepping up its play this year. Defensive minded Buffaloes (24th in points at 61.7 PPG) are now averaging 73 PPG on 46.2% from the floor since the 1st of the year. That's bad news for offensively challenged UCLA which ranks at the bottom tier of the PAC 12 in scoring. Bruins' HC Cronin will need a few recruiting classes to get the Bruins back to respectability. And Colorado's F Tyler Bey (leading rebounder in PAC 12) back in the fray, going to be going the Buffaloes way tonight. 5-1 ATS as a favorite and 5-1 ATS on Thursdays. Colorado the call. |
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01-30-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois -4.5 | 51-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Illinois 7:30: Illinois is rolling and right on MSU's tail having its site on a Big 10 Championship. They fear no one and coming off back to back impressive road wins. Let up here? Unlikely, for you talk to the team members and they are focused on winning next game. They have been an actual better team on the road but they buried Minnesota in 3 of the last 4 at home. Minnesota is struggling now and face a well coached team that has a well balanced unit with Dosunmu, Feliz and a freshman - Cockburn who has been Big 10 Freshman of the Week 7 times this season! They're tough on the boards, play great defense and confident down stretch of games. We'll roll with the Fighting Illini. |
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01-29-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -2 | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
WV/Texas Tech 8:00: WV having a great season under Huggins. His defense has been awesome and they're closing games out. They defeated the Red Raiders January 11th in WV 66-54. Red Raiders, on the other hand, struggling a bit and failed to cover against Kentucky in Lubbock in their last game. Nevertheless, like Beard's boys here. In conference play, TT is allowing just 58.8 PPG over their last 6 and they're quite opportunistic in creating turnovers. That is an area WV struggles with (293rd) offensively and it should rear its ugly head on the road vs the well coached Red Raiders - eager for revenge and to get back in the Big 12 hunt down the stretch. Tech the call. |
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01-29-20 | Monmouth +2 v. St. Peter's | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
Monmouth/St. Peters 7:00: Monmouth the better team here. They're on a 4-0 run and hitting shots. When the Hawks score 75+, they're 5-0 SU. Monmouth is a senior laden team with Hammond, Traore and top perimeter threat - Salnave doing 64% of their scoring. St. Peters is offensively challenged ranking 322nd in the nation offensively at 64.4 PPG. Hawks control a 3-1 ATS run in this series and we'll grab a bucket with them. |
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01-28-20 | Butler +1 v. Georgetown | 69-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
01-28-20 | Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Purdue/Rutgers 8:00: Purdue coming off blowout win while Rutgers barely sneaking by conference bottom feeder Nebraska. Speculators believe the Boilermakers are now going to snap into the pre-season team they were projected to be; however, I won't be on the bandwagon yet. Scrappy Rutgers I've been riding most of the year and they're still hungry and especially strong at home (8-1-1 ATS). Perhaps Rutgers overlooked Nebraska with focus on a Purdue team that's beaten them like a drum for a long time. Now that Rutgers has a legitimate contending Big 10 team, I don't see a fall off here. And remember that Purdue still hasn't shown they can compete on the Big 10 road (0-4-1 ATS road dog). Rutgers the call. |
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01-28-20 | Florida State +1 v. Virginia | 56-61 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
Fla State/Virginia 7:00: 'Noles attempting to go for season sweep after January 15th SU win at Florida State. Seminoles finding ways of closing out games and winning (10-0 SU run) and like the point we get here. Virginia, on the other hand, still searching for that go-to-shooter this season. Closest thing is Woldetensae who actually resembled a legitimate perimeter shooter at Wake Forest; however, Florida State has a few of them and lots of athleticism which is well coached by Hamilton. Bennett does a great job but doesn't have the offensive guns to deliver here. Virginia ranks 344th in nation from perimeter this year. Too much burden on defense and Fla State should pull away down stretch. |
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01-27-20 | Spurs -2 v. Bulls | 109-110 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
Spurs/Bulls 8:05: Spurs doing better work on the road and should bounce back in Chicago after two straight home defeats. We'll look for a better mindset from DeRozan and company after hearing of the news to Kobe Bryant. And Murray is starting to heat up from 3 point land. Bulls have been highly erratic alternating wins and losses for most of the month. Chicago is 0-4 ATS off a 10+ point win and 1-5 ATS off an ATS win. Spurs, on the other hand, 4-0 ATS on Mondays and 9-2-1 ATS off a SU loss. We'll look for San Antonio to deliver here. |
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01-26-20 | Monmouth +2.5 v. Iona | 94-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Monmouth/Iona 1:00: Monmouth sits atop the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while Iona is a bottom feeder. The Hawks smothered them 73-61 on January 5th. Iona off a satisfying win over Canisius. Gaels struggling defensively, especially guarding on the perimeter (353rd nationally) and 0-9 when allowing 70+. Monmouth 5-1 ATS on the road and 6-1 ATS vs a team with a less than .500 home record. Hawks are careful with the rock with just 1 turnover per 18.8% of the time coming up the floor. We'll look for the season sweep. |
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01-26-20 | Maryland v. Indiana -1 | 77-76 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Maryland/Indiana 1:00: Maryland finally got their Big 10 road win at Northwestern but needed a valiant effort to do it. Indiana not an easy place to play and the Hoosiers are looking to avenge the 75-59 loss at Maryland earlier this season. What hurts MD even more is the 2-8 ATS Sunday ledger and the 1-5 ATS mark in Indiana. Hoosiers starting to roll and can separate themselves ahead of the Terps with a win here. We'll give the edge to Indiana. |
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01-25-20 | Arizona v. Arizona State +5 | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
Arizona/Arizona State 9:30: Sun Devils still have a bad taste in mouth from 75-47 demolition at Arizona on January 4th. Bobby Hurley eager to have his boys return the favor here. Arizona struggling to cover on road at 2-9 ATS. Sun Devils a dangerous 4-1 ATS as a dog and should make a game of it this time around. |
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01-25-20 | Washington +8 v. Colorado | 62-76 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
Washington/Colorado 9:00: The Huskies are desperate for a win after their 1-4 SU/ATS slide. A closer look reveals they've lost two of those in OT. Yes, they're competitive for a majority of their games but failing to close as exhibited in their last game - 67-66 loss at Utah. Colorado given much too much credit here. Sure, leading rebounder Bey (finger) will be back but keep in mind that Colorado has lost 5 straight in this series. Washington should keep it competitive. |
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01-25-20 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M +2.5 | 73-62 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Texas A&M 4:00: Okie State has aspirations of stopping the bleeding by going out of conference to take on an old foe; however, Aggies no pushover. A&M may be one of the lowest scoring teams in the NCAA but they play hard and are solid defensively (43rd in nation) under Buzz Williams; as a matter of fact, they gave LSU a rough time at Reed Arena on January 14th almost pulling the outright in OT. Aggies 7-0 ATS as a dog and we'll grab the bucket here. |
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01-25-20 | NC State v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
NC State/Georgia Tech 4:00: NC State feeling good about themselves off a win over defending champs Virginia despite dressing just seven scholarship players with Andree (foot) and Bates (concussion) out. Meanwhile, GT playing hard but unable to close out games with close losses to ND, VA and most recently at Louisville. GT 5-1 ATS in this series with the last 4 decided in final minute. Today, Pastner's bunch delivers. |
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01-24-20 | Yale -5 v. Brown | 73-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Yale/Brown 7:00: Yale is a legitimate NCAA Tournament team and Brown is a mere also ran in the Ivy League. Yale breezed by the Bears last Friday and should deliver at Brown tonight. Yale is road tested with an outright at Clemson and easy cover at UNC. The Bulldogs have a very productive offense with Atkinson (16.5 PPG) leading the way, a perimeter threat in Swain, and a really good glass cleaner on both ends with Bruner. Defensively, Yale is well disciplined allowing a measly 36.5% (5th in nation) from the floor. Brown offense struggles at 68.9 PPG (245th) and not good defensively allowing 71 PPG (231st). Brown dependent on Brandon Anderson to manufacture the points consistently. Yale too well rounded and focused here. With Yale a blistering 42-10 ATS as a road favorite, I find value in laying points on the road with Yale. |
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01-23-20 | James Madison v. William & Mary -9 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-22-20 | Syracuse +4.5 v. Notre Dame | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-21-20 | Texas A&M +9.5 v. Missouri | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-20-20 | Bucknell v. Colgate -8 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -6.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 164 h 5 m | Show | |
Packers/49ers 6:40: Yes, I know the sequence. 49ers demolished Green Bay in November 37-8 and Aaron Rodgers and company are out to avenge the defeat. Only problem is the Packers' offensive line may not be able to hold up again against the league's most brutal front four. Bosa, Ford, Armstead, Buckner now all healthy and with line stunts, don't need much help with blitzes. Rodgers was brutalized in that game and I don't see a significant difference here. And teams that won 20+ point blowouts in regular season meeting the same team in playoffs have gone 22-14 in the second game. Sure, SF hasn't been a good TD favorite but they're the better team across the board and we'll lay it here. |
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01-19-20 | Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs | 24-35 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Titans/Chiefs 3:05: Chiefs really concerned about Titans and they should. Reid is a money burning 1-8 SU vs Tennessee! And Tennessee won at KC earlier in the season 35-32. Today, I like the formula of Tennessee, which is the January Playoff way: run the football and work off play action while playing solid defense and creating turnovers. Tennessee runs the football better than any team right now. Henry has gutted two good defenses with 182 (NE) and 195 (Balt) yards. And KC's defense is vulnerable (26th vs run). Henry only gets better as the game wears on and KC does not have the defensive depth (Chris Jones still out) to stop him. Moreover, one of the reasons Henry will continue to be successful is QB Tannehill. His play action to his underrated enormously athletic receiving corps has been tearing up secondaries and KC is won't have an easy time. On the other hand, I do appreciate the KC offensive arsenal which is loaded; however, Vrabel has his boys creating turnovers and limiting explosive plays. Houston made the mistake of abandoning the run game too early and inappropriate special teams miscues after jumping out to 24-0. Tennessee more disciplined and better coached. Tennessee the call. |
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01-19-20 | Minnesota v. Rutgers -4.5 | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
01-18-20 | Toledo v. Akron -5 | 99-89 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Toledo/Akron 2:00: Groce has the Zips rolling and should deliver here; after all, they're stingy on the defensive side and smooth offensively at home. Akron has covered 10 of its last 14 at home. Toledo has lost nine straight ATS and 0-5 ATS traveling. Toledo is a weak defensive rebounding team (215th nationally) and much too reliant on PG Jackson offensively. Akron has a Jackson of their own: Loren Cristian Jackson and he has a good supporting cast. Akron the call. |
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01-18-20 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -1.5 | 81-67 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
South Carolina/Texas A&M 1:00: A&M poised to deliver here after hard fought OT loss to LSU on Tuesday. South Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off their most monumental regular season win in a few years upsetting Kentucky. They're in for a letdown here. Martin has found a new scoring weapon in his arsenal but A&M sports the SEC's Top Ranked Defense at 63 PPG. Buzz has good on court leadership with senior F Nebo who leads the team in points, rebounds and blocks. And Fr Gordon came on strong vs LSU adding 17 points. A&M 5-1 ATS on Saturdays and we'll roll with them. |
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01-18-20 | Baylor -6 v. Oklahoma State | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Baylor/Oklahoma State Noon: Okie State doesn't have much home court advantage and they surely have trouble against good teams. Cowboys 0-4 ATS vs teams above .600. Oklahoma State is severely offensively challenged averaging a paltry 66.2 PPG, shooting just 40.5% from the field (323rd nationally), and a measly 29% from 3 point range (329th in nation). Consequently, they will be choked out by one of the premier defenses (#6) in the nation. I don't see a slip up here from the rolling Bears. |
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01-17-20 | Dayton v. St. Louis +7.5 | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Dayton/St. Louis 7:00: On paper, St. Louis looks to be over matched against the explosive offense of the Toppin and Landers' lead Flyers; however, Billikens are a tough out with tenacious defense and a good trio of shooters in G Goodwin, F French and F Perkins. SLU sports a 3-0-1 ATS mark at home vs a team with a road win % above .600. Of course, the Flyers are looking to avenge their ATL 10 Quarterfinals loss last March. SLU had 3 extra prep days for this one and I believe they'll keep it tight. Dayton is 0-6 ATS on Friday. St. Louis the call. |
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01-16-20 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Delaware | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-15-20 | Tennessee v. Georgia -2.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Georgia 7:00: Tennessee coming off back-to-back SU wins but having trouble covering numbers. The Volunteers are offensively challenged averaging 66 PPG which is 302nd in the nation. Sure, they play pretty good defense but they will have difficulty matching buckets with Georgia on this floor. Georgia averages about 79 PPG and already 0-2 in SEC after losses to SEC heavyweights Kentucky and Auburn. We'll look for a great sense of urgency from the Bulldogs to get back in the win column. |
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01-15-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3.5 | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Indiana/Rutgers 7:00: Pikiell doing a great job making Rutgers a legitimate relevant team in the Big 10. Rutgers has covered 8 straight games. They're coming off a SU loss at Illinois and should get back to their winning ways on their home floor. Rutgers plays great defense and fundamentally sound. Jacob Young is picking up his game substantially and that should carry over tonight. Indiana struggles on the Big 10 road with blowout losses at Wisconsin and Maryland. Rutgers the call. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Clemson/LSU 8:00: Exciting matchup with the undisputed two best teams in the nation. Burrow and his amazing offense coupled with an LSU defense that really came on strong down the stretch; as a matter of fact, few weaknesses in this LSU machine as HC Orgeron was the beneficiary of the most talented team in the nation. Nevertheless, LSU, like any other team, has its weaknesses - albeit very few- that can be exploited. Assuming veteran Clemson DC Venables has his Top 5 Pass Defense in the Nation limiting explosive plays, LSU may have trouble scoring TDs in the Red Zone where LSU struggles a bit; as a matter of fact, inside the 10, LSU's Red Zone Offense ranks 61st in the nation. Clemson doesn't have natural pass rushing edge rushers but bring heat from a variety of positions to be 3rd in the nation in sacks. Venerables loves using hybrid S/OLB Simmons from all angles and he can even cover RB Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield. As for Clemson offensively, QB Lawrence doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone. He's a proven winner with a great supporting cast including Tee Higgins, Ross and arguably the most explosive RB in the nation Etienne. LSU's defense has allowed 11 rushes for 30+ yards this season. Coaching edge to Swinney who is a money making 9-1 SU/ATS as a dog in a Playoff or Bowl! Clemson the call. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers | 23-28 | Loss | -108 | 40 h 26 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Packers 6:40: Last week, Seattle went in to Philly with three offensive line starters injured, and deep in to their depth chart in TE and RB yet still managed to come out with a win. Much of the credit to Pete Carroll, a highly underrated HC. Today, him and his great QB Wilson will find a way to put points on the board. Fortunately, Metcalf has stepped up his game to compliment Lockett as a deep threat. Would love to see the "Beast Mode" amped up but that may be a stretch; however, he still is dangerous around the goal line. And Homer is doing a pretty good job. Sure, GB's QB Rodgers is always a threat and RB Aaron Jones dangerous running and receiving. Seattle's defense not what it used to be but Clowney (probable) and the addition of S Diggs have helped tremendously in these games. We'll look for Pete Carroll to find a way once again. |
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01-12-20 | Texans +10.5 v. Chiefs | 31-51 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Texans/Chiefs 3:05: Hard to lay double-digits with a KC defense that gives up lots of ground. Houston has a run game, as exhibited in the first matchup Oct. 13th, when they outrushed and outthrew the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The moment isn't too big for QB Watson for he shined again last week vs a very good Buffalo defense. And now that Fuller should be good to go to compliment Hopkins, Houston has a fighting chance here. Moreover, KC's top pass rusher Chris Jones (calf) is still not at his best. On the other hand, the Texans' defense does need work and not a fan of DC Crennel; however, Mercilus and Watt looked good last week and we'll look for them to follow up strong here. Reid, of course is awesome, off bye weeks and KC is well rested; however, interesting to note that Reid is 0-8 ATS at home off a division game w/ revenge. We'll take the points. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens -9.5 | 28-12 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-11-20 | Texas Tech +5 v. West Virginia | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/West Virginia 6:00: Chris Beard's preparation is second to none. As Texas Tech is coming off a loss to #4 Baylor, Beard will have his men ready to handle Huggins' full court pressure and succeed. WV does have a smothering defense but Tech's defense is almost equally as good on paper and arguably better in real time action. Tech's Ramsey and Moretti offer a strong scoring punch while WV offense struggles to find rhythm too often. We'll look for Tech to keep them out of rhythm here. Tech is 9-1 ATS on the road off 3 or more home games, 9-1 ATS on Saturdays, and 4-1 ATS as a dog. Remember, December 10th the Red Raiders were 7' point dogs going in to then #1 Louisville and easily pulled off the upset. We'll roll with TT. |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-10-20 | Maryland v. Iowa +1.5 | 49-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-09-20 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -12 | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Michigan State 9:00: Minnesota, coming off a good win against Northwestern, should experience trouble at this venue. Favorite and home team at 5-0 ATS/4-1 ATS respectively. Michigan State has amped up their game with back-to-back blowout wins against conference foes. Winston is now getting good support and their defense is clamping down. Michigan State 38-18 ATS vs teams with road winning % less than .400. We'll roll with #8 Michigan State which is finally living up to their pre-season billing. |
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01-09-20 | Memphis v. Wichita State -5.5 | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Memphis/Wichita State 7:00: Shockers did not have their usual NCAA Tournament team under HC Marshall last year; consequently, they got swept in this series even though it was competitive. Tonight, the Shockers have talent under always well prepared HC Marshall and had 4 days to prep for this double revenge game. Shockers have great balance this year in perimeter shooters Etienne and Stevenson plus inside force Echenique; in addition, quality depth. Memphis, on the other hand, was rolling at #22 in polls until a lackluster effort at home vs Georgia. Memphis, comprised of mostly talented freshmen and sophomores under Hardaway, sport a 1-4-1 ATS off 3 or more home games. It will be tough for them to deliver in this venue in which the Shockers are undefeated. |
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01-09-20 | College of Charleston -8.5 v. Elon | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
COFC/Elon 7:00: Elon struggling in the Colonial Athletic Association while College of Charleston rolling. Elon, 4-12 SU, relying on Sheffield II to supply the motherlode of points for the Phoenix while getting little help from anyone else; consequently, they're 249th in the nation scoring points (68.6 PPG) yet bad defensively as well (270th in nation allowing 72.8 PPG). That's a recipe for disaster as they host a team that's handled itself on the road. Cougars are 6-1 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS off a SU win. Defensively, they're not great but guard the perimeter well (allow 29%). We'll look for the Cougars to keep it rolling here. |
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01-08-20 | Oklahoma v. Texas -2 | 72-62 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-08-20 | St. John's +4 v. Georgetown | 66-87 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
St. John's/Georgetown 6:30: Both teams started off on fire but only one is showing promise. St. John's had some big victories early and most recently went to Arizona to claim an outright as a double-digit dog. They remained competitive in the Big East with covers at Xavier and Butler and hungry for that first conference win. They should get it at Georgetown tonight. Georgetown endured blowout back-to-back defeats in the Big East road after a strong non-conference ledger. Hoyas look dazed and confused and give up easy buckets from the perimeter; consequently, we'll look for the Red Storm to break out of their perimeter shooting slump tonight. SJ's Coach Anderson has his men forcing turnovers (13th in nation). With the Hoyas sloppy in play and 1-4 ATS off a SU loss, we'll look for the road team (3-1-1 ATS in series) to deliver here. |
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01-07-20 | Villanova v. Creighton -1.5 | 64-59 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Villanova/Creighton 9:00: Both teams coming off losses but Creighton should have the edge here. They're 10-0 on their home floor and respond well off losses at 4-0 ATS. Villanova got worked vs Marquette on the 4th and it won't be easy walking into this venue with the vengeful Blue Jays eager to make up for getting swept last year in this series. Their came a time in recent history when McDermott had the horses to run Villanova out of the gym. Tonight, Creighton has those perimeter marksmen including Zegarowski who can get hot. The Blue Jays were stone cold at Butler on the 4th but should get it together tonight in their comfortable confines. Villanova just 1-9-1 ATS as a traveler and 1-8 ATS on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Creighton has some good wins including Texas Tech, Nebraska, OK, Arizona State and Marquette on their resume. We'll look for them to knock off #16 Villanova tonight. |
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01-07-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +2 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette/Miami-OH 7:30: Ragin' Cajuns may not be able to compete with the Power 5 programs of the NCAA just yet, but can handle the mid-majors. UL-Lafayette has a veteran offensive line with a couple beasts, including All-American G Dotson and All Conferance Hunt. They've helped pave the way for a bruising rush attack that grinds out 265 YPG with 41 TDs. They have a trio of backs who rushed for 2,755 yards. Sure, Miami OH has a decent defense but not able to withstand the bruising line of the Cajuns for 4 quarters; especially, with a pedestrian offense the Redhawks bring to the field. Miami OH ranks 122nd offensively in the nation. Sure, ULL defensive run-stop-unit gives up yardage but tightens in the red-zone (10th ranked in nation). ULL 4-0 ATS in non-conference and 6-1 ATS off SU loss. Redhawks sport a money burning 2-10 ATS mark outside their conference. Cajuns should deliver. |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks -126 v. Eagles | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 134 h 6 m | Show | |
Seattle/Philadelphia 4:40: Going to ride the road team here again in this round. Seattle, which already beat Philadelphia in Philly on November 24th, did their best work on the road this season. I'm not a fan of their defense but they have playmakers and control a +9 turnover margin. On the other hand, the Eagles, which control a minus 3 turnover margin, is depleted in weaponry with Sanders, Agholor now out. And T Lane Johnson is struggling with an injured ankle. Seattle, which has a host of injuries too, should have DE Clowney back to wreak havoc on Wentz. And QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 SU vs Philadelphia in his career. He is limited in weaponry as well but is a big time playmaker with Lockett, Metcalf and TE Hollister at his disposal. And few talk about this but keep in mind that Pete Carroll has never lost 3 games in a row as a coach. And he's been coaching a long time. Seattle the call. |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Vikings/Saints 1:05: Everybody and their brother on Saints today. I know, the revenge from the 2018 Minneapolis Miracle, and New Orleans is on a blistering 3-0 SU/ATS run with an offense that looked unstoppable with Brees throwing 15 TDs/0 picks in the month of December. However, Minnesota has played New Orleans tough under HC Zimmer. Zimmer's defense held Brees in check the last 3 meetings in which the New Orleans QB was held to under 300 yards per game in each with a combined 7 TDs/3 INTs. Sure, Michael Thomas is the most dangerous target and surely Minnesota will keep him heavily weighted in their scheme. Kamara's numbers are down this year for he doesn't have Mark Ingram around to take the pressure off. Also, Minnesota has gotten healthy on both sides of the ball and not short on defensive playmakers as LB Kendricks is back to join forces with Harris, Hunter and S Harrison Smith. Offensively, Thielen (hamstring) is finally reaching stride after his lingering hammy issue. And Dalvin Cook, arguably one of the top backs in the NFL, gives life to the play action pass game for Cousins - who is at his best when Cook is behind him. Saints just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home favorite roles and this one is a little pricey. Like the road team in the Wild Card round and it applies here. Take the points. |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Titans/Patriots 8:15: Despite the rumblings of Patriots' demise, they're hosting a playoff game in January and that's bad news for visitors. Patriots 6-1 ATS in January and 6-2 ATS as a playoff home favorite. Sure, the Titans have dangerous offensive weaponry in A.J. Brown, Jannu Davis, RB Henry and QB Tannehill who leads the league in passer rating. And on paper, it doesn't look good for New England as Brady is having one of his worst years ever, limited weaponry, and a defense that got torched by Miami in the finale; however, as we know, this game isn't played on paper and great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they have to be. Patriots 22-6 ATS after allowing 250+ through the air. Yes, they'll make the adjustments and deliver. Titans a shaky 1-17 ATS off a double digit SU win vs conference opponent and just 1-4 ATS in Foxborough. |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
Bills/Texans 4:35: Buffalo has played well on the road all season with 6 road wins and history dictates that means a lot come playoff time. The Bills can run the football now that they've found their featured back in Singletary (5.1 YPC). That, of course, opens up the play action for QB Josh Allen. He's got some good weapons including vertical threat John Brown and possession guy Cole Beasley. In addition, defense is where Buffalo has been consistently strong unlike Houston which occasionally shuts down a team. Sure, Watson is really good and he's got Will Fuller (groin) back to add to a dangerous arsenal with Hopkins; however, for the record, Watson struggled last time he faced Buffalo (sacked 7X with 2 INT's and fumble). Always fearful of Texans laying points. We'll back the road team here. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada OVER 58.5 | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Ohio/Nevada 3:30: Hard to pick a side here considering that each team has been poor defensively. Sure, Ohio crushed offensive lightweights Akron and Bowling Green down the stretch of the regular season but that was surely not indicative of how their defense played all season. They, like Nevada gave up nearly 6 yards per play. And with the light schedule Ohio played, to finish 6-6 is no accomplishment. Solich, however, can take solace in knowing he has a capable QB in Nathan Rourke. He put up good numbers including a 20:5 TD:INT ratio. Solich also has his usual potent ground game (216.5 YPG) that's ranked 22nd nationally. Ohio U should move the football up and down the field on a gutted Nevada defense that's without direction. Nevada had multiple defensive suspensions with 3 key starters out in NG Sekong, S Arnold, and their best C Brown (4 INTs). Their starting LB Sewell will miss the first half. And Nevada HC Norvell already fired his DC Casteel along with 2 assistants. As for Nevada's offense. They rank in the lower tier of the NCAA but can put up points against this Ohio U defense. QB Carson Strong has some weaponry and a decent offensive line. Points at a discount on this blue turf today. Over the call. |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee -130 v. Indiana | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Indiana 7:00: Liked how Tennessee HC Pruitt got his team to finish strong down stretch (5 straight wins) after a very shaky early season. Tennessee's defense stepped up big time and they actually were in the game to beat Alabama (10/19) late in the game before a controversial penalty opened the door for the Tide. Nevertheless, Tennessee easily covered that game en route to a 6-1 ATS run. And QB Guarantono did a solid job managing the flow of the game. The Volunteers have an experienced offense that is capable of moving the football. As for Indiana, not happy about their defensive breakdowns over the last 3 games. And keep in mind that their masterful OC DeBoer is out the door heading to Fresno. That puts pressure on QB Ramsey whom he groomed well. We'll grab the Vol's on the money line. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Boston College/Cincinnati 3:00: Tough assignment for interim HC Gunnell to hold together BC program without their key cog and OC Bajakian. BC's starting RB Dillon who was the ignition to their offense, decided to sit out in prep for NFL while their OC took the same role at Northwestern. That will put an enormous burden on sophomore QB Bailey who took over for injured starter Brown (knee) earlier in the year. Cincinnati had a great year but still stewing after back-to-back close losses to American Athletic Conference Champ - Memphis. Bearcats' defense the real deal and should control this game. Cincinnati the call. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor +4.5 v. Georgia | 14-26 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Baylor/Georgia 8:45: If this game was played during the regular season, Georgia would be the prohibitive favorite and possibly worth going with; however, motivational factor comes in to play tonight. Georgia will be without nearly a dozen players for various reasons. And the 37-7 burial by LSU December 7th sucked the life out of this team. Jake Fromm hasn't completed above 50% of his passes in 5 straight games. Sure, Swift is a big time RB but LSU shut him down completely because of a Georgia passing game that's not scaring defenses. And Baylor's defense is one to be reckoned with. They play the run well, get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game), and opportunistic in creating fumbles and interceptions. The Baylor offense can run the football and QB Brewer (concussion protocol but likely to play) has talented skill personnel to go to. Baylor has been a covering machine all season including 5 straight covers down the stretch. Motivational factor with Baylor as Rhule will have his guys ready after valiant effort in Big 12 Championship Game vs Oklahoma. Baylor the call. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +3 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Oregon 5:00: Close call here, for Wisconsin is a dangerous bowl team rattling off 5 straight wins; however, both teams have explosive offenses and rock solid defensively. The key determinent is Oregon's QB Herbert who is a big time player. He has a veteran offensive line protecting him including LT Sewell (Outland Trophy) and a really good wideout in Johnson. And what makes the pass game click is RB Verdell who ran all over the nation's #1 run stop unit Utah. Sure, Wisconsin's RB Taylor is as good as they get but the jury is still out on QB Coan. Oregon has a really good defense, tough vs the run and oportunistic. Wisky 0-5 ATS as a neutral favorite and I believe this one will be close, therefore, we'll grab the points. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -6.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Auburn 1:00: Minnesota stepped up significantly this year under HC Fleck. They're well disciplined, solid in every facet of the game as exhibited against their biggest win of the season at home vs Penn State November 9th. QB Morgan was awesome and well surrounded with RB Rodney Smith, and big time receivers Johnson and Bateman. And defensively, stout and strong; however, the Gophers still a recruiting class or two away from hanging with the likes of Auburn. Sure, Auburn lost three games but all competive games and against Top 7 teams including a hard fought 23-20 loss at #1 LSU! And keep in mind that Auburn beat bowl teams Oregon (neutral site), Texas A&M in College Station and Alabama in Iron Bowl. Minnesota lost in their step up games to Wisconsin and Iowa and was the beneficiary of not having to play Ohio State and Michigan. Auburn's veteran offensive line, big time skill personnel and a Top 20 defense should be too much for the Gophers. Auburn 17-3 ATS after allow 35+ in their last game vs an opponent off a SU loss. And Malzahn lost his OC but calls a pretty good game. Auburn should deliver. |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama -7 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Michigan/Alabama 1:00: Can't side with the Wolves with Harbaugh on account of their horrible road record and bowl games vs Top 10 teams at 0-6! Sure, Alabama won't have LB Lewis and CB Diggs as they prep for NFL draft. Nevertheless, Saban's cupboard is still full of quality goods for star receivers Jeudy, Ruggs and Smith will be at the disposal of QB Mac Jones. And 1000+ rusher Harris, whom Michigan lost the recruiting battle too, should find room behind the rock solid 'Bama offensive line. Michigan's defense brings back bad memories of how Wisconsin moved them around like furniture. On the other hand, the Wolve's offense isn't exactly explosive with Patterson at the helm. And he won't have Tarik Black (transfer) to go to. Alabama the call. |
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12-31-19 | Texas +7.5 v. Utah | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
12-31-19 | Kansas State v. Navy -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
12-31-19 | Kentucky +3 v. Virginia Tech | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Kentucky/Virginia Tech Noon: Hard to fade Virginia Tech, which will be playing for long term tenured DC Bud Foster who will be retiring this year. But Kentucky is more sound in a variety of areas. Their offensive line is outstanding significantly producing the #4 run game in the FBS. QB Bowden Jr. sports a 5-2 mark since he was inserted in the lineup and he won the Paul Hornung Award for his versatility. VT is impressive offensively too behind QB Hooker who is 6-2 as a starter this year; however, offensive line question marks at times and they face a fierce KY defense. 'Cats 4-0 ATS vs teams above .500 and 6-0 ATS in non-conference games. Got to take the field goal here. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois +6.5 v. California | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Illinois/California 4:00: Impressed with the Fighting Illini who snuck up on foes of the Big Ten. Illinois turned in a strong season finish with a 6-0 ATS run down the stretch with QB Peters, including outrights over Wisconsin, at Purdue and at Michigan State. He was concussed in the finale loss to NW. He's back for this one and Illinois should deliver. California started strong but injuries curtailed their progress throughout the season. Their offense, ranked in the bottom tier of the NCAA, does not scare anyone. And their defense, which was outstanding last year, regressed a bit this season. Cali is 1-6 ATS in December and 1-6 ATS on a neutral field. With the Illini at 5-0 ATS as a dog, we'll ride Lovie and his boys here. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Western Kentucky 12:30: Both teams have productive offenses but like the team with the defensive edge in Western Kentucky. Sure, WM has explosive RB Bellamy and veteran QB Wassink behind an experienced offensive line; however, defensively give up way too many yards and points. On the other hand, WK has a top 20 defense that ranks 6th nationally in 3rd down conversion % and 15th nationally in the red zone. Helton did a great job in developing his backup QB Storey who meshed well with a good offensive line and some solid skill personnel. And remember, WK defeated 4 Conference USA Bowl teams and a Power 5 Conference team in Arkansas. Western Kentucky the call. |
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12-29-19 | Steelers +1 v. Ravens | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 14 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Baltimore 4:25: Steelers still in the playoff hunt and Baltimore secured the #1 seed. Ravens decided to rest many starters including their inevitable MVP QB Lamar Jackson. And remember, their top RB Ingram, who significantly boosts the run game, is out (calf). Now, backup QB RG III, who had that one good year in Washington as a rookie, takes over at the helm. He's seen limited action in garbage time for Jackson and did not fare well. The zone read game is clearly not going to scare any defense let alone Pittsburgh's - loaded with former #1 draft choices. Pittsburgh the call. |
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12-29-19 | Redskins v. Cowboys -12 | 16-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Redskins/Cowboys 4:25: Cowboys lost control of division with loss at Philadelphia last week. Amazingly, they're still in the race and can win the NFC East with a win here and an Eagles loss. Cowboys usually beat up weak teams as their 5-1 ATS mark vs teams under .500 indicates. Redskins will be with QB Haskins (hamstring) and talented rookie WR McLaurin. Keenum a good backup but got to believe the Cowboys' defense can step up their game. Offensively, Cowboys' RB Elliot should have a big game vs the Redskins 29th run stop unit. Bottom line, Washington is looking forward to the #2 pick in the draft (with a loss) while the Cowboys desperately clinging on to their playoff lives. Cowboys should move to 15-3 ATS the NFC East. |
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12-29-19 | Chargers +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: What could be Philip Rivers final game for the Chargers, I project him going out strong. He's put some big numbers up vs KC (353 yards on 11/18) but has thrown lots of interceptions (20 in 11 games vs KC). He and his mates do seem to play better on the road, especially RB Ekeler with 8 straight road TDs! KC doesn't have much to play for here and an early lead by the Patriots (vs Miami) could have HC Reid resting starters late in this one; after all, KC is locked in the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots win. With a KC loss and a Texans win, KC would fall to the #4 spot. Nevertheless, a bye is pretty much out of the question for the Patriots most likely won't lose to Miami in Foxborough, especially this late in December. KC's run defense not that great; after all, they've allowed six runner to crack the 100 yard mark this season and give up an average of 130 YPG. We'll look for Melvin Gordon to work on his yardage incentive$ as the season draws to a close. And still like the Chargers' pass defense that can be stingy. With Rivers at 14-4-2 ATS as a division road dog, take the points with the vengeful Chargers. |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 43 | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Browns/Bengals 1:00: Browns really started to struggle defensively when they lost DE Myles Garrett for the season. Their pass rush never was the same and today, I don't see them shaking QB Dalton. Bengals' are 4-1 O/U following scoring 35+; moreover, they're 5-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards. Browns will lean on RB Chubb to continue eclipse the 1500 yard rushing mark and open up the pass game for Mayfield. He should do fine even without OBJ (injured). This series is 6-2 O/U in Cincinnati. Cincinnati has secured the #1 pick in the draft regardless of the outcome. We'll look for a higher scoring affair. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson -2 v. Ohio State | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
Clemson/Ohio State 8:00: Been riding OSU most of the season but got to go with Swinney and his boys here. Clemson is loaded on both sides of the ball and defensively a Top 10 defense across the board including TFLs and Sacks. And an opposing QB with a brace on his knee will never strike fear in a defense of this magnitude. Fields is still not at his best as a runner and that lack of a step will be costly tonight. What makes Fields and the Buckeyes' potent offensive machine work is Fields' ability to fake throws in single coverage and use his feet to gobble up chunks of yardage. His knee troubles limit that threat especially against a fast Clemson secondary. Sure, OSU loaded with skill personnel and arguably one of the best RBs in country in J.K. Dobbins; however, Clemson's QB Lawrence has found his rhythm 20 TDs/0 INTs last 6 games and RB Etienne and amazing wideouts of Clemson just a bit too much in prime time. Clemson 10-1 ATS in December, 9-1 ATS in bowls, 4-0 ATS neutral favorite. Clemson. |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma v. LSU OVER 75.5 | 28-63 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/LSU 4:00: Both offenses dynamic and explosive as Oklahoma drops 43 PPG on its opponents while LSU hangs nearly 48 PPG on theirs. Oklahoma will be missing some key defensive personnel including their top pass rusher Perkins. That's all Oklahoma needs, allowing Heisman winner Joe Burrow more time to connect with his super athletic receivers. Sure, LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire (hamstring) may not be at his best but LSU is equipped with enough offensive skill depth behind one of the best offensive lines in the country to continue the offensive juggernaut. Defensively, however, LSU has been generous to teams in the red zone allowing to convert points on 59% of attempts; surely, Lincoln Riley's #2 offense in the nation behind big game seasoned QB Hurts will find ways to get in the end zone. He's got a multitude of weapons to work with including Ceedee Lamb. Oklahoma 6-2-1 O/U as a dog. LSU 5-1-1 O/U vs non-conference. Over it is. |
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12-28-19 | Iowa State +4 v. Notre Dame | 9-33 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa -2 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Iowa/USC 8:00: USC hasn't won a meaningful bowl game since Pete Carroll departed. Helton, who amazingly got his contract renewed, has question marks on if his offensive coordinator will stay or not. And sure, QB Slovis threw for 400+ in 4 of the last 5 games; however, none of those secondaries were in the top 100 defensively. USC will face the best defense of the season. Hawkeyes, rank #11 defensively with a ball hawking secondary and a DE Epenesa who is a sack machine NFL ready. Yes, Iowa's offense not that explosive but steady and physical with QB Nate Stanley at the helm. He has the current Big 10 Lineman of the Year at OT in Wirfs. Moreover, special teams a significant advantage. Iowa in the Top 10 nationally whereas USC 129th of 130 FBS teams covering kicks. Iowa the call. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State +5.5 v. Texas A&M | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Texas A&M: 6: 45: We'll take the points with Gundy and his Cowboys. Okie State's Gundy always dangerous as a dog let alone a Bowl Dog. Gundy has gone 3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog. In season finales, A&M coming off a humiliating loss to LSU while Okie State comes off a competitive loss to Oklahoma. The LSU loss typified Coach Fisher's frustration with his recruits. In step up games vs Top 10 bowl teams, Fisher went 0-5 SU. Clearly Oklahoma State is not in the category as a Top 10 team but very competitive. And now that Cowboys' RB Hubbard has decided to play in this one to up his NFL status to perhaps a late #1 draft choice, State has fighting chance. He makes the play action game run smoothly for either Sanders or Dru Brown. As for A&M, their top defensive player - Madubuike decided to skip this bowl to prepare for the NFL draft. We'll grab the points. |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech/Mia Fla 4:00: Skip Holtz a dangerous dog in his career at 50-26-1 ATS. We'll take a TD here with Holtz and his Bulldogs who will be playing in their home state. Moreover, the Bulldogs come into this one sporting a 5-0 SU bowl run. Miami U, on the other hand, lost 8 of its last 9 bowl games and, again, underachieved, this time under first year HC Diaz. Sure, the former Miami U defensive coordinator still has a suffocating defense; however, their offense (88th in nation) does not scare anyone. Quarterback issues and, even worse, offensive line problems were a direct result in not able to establish a quality run game (120th nationally). And their leading rusher Deejay Dallas will not play. LT, which wasn't great defensively, does possess the 3rd best defense in the nation in the red zone which means a lot against a non-explosive team. And LT's offense, lead by QB J'mar Smith (17/4 TD/INT) should be rolling again. He was suspended for the Marshall and UAB losses but made a difference back for the season finale with a win over UTSA. We'll grab the dog here. |
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12-25-19 | Clippers +2 v. Lakers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers 8:05: Rematch from opening day tilt 65 days ago. Clippers went on to win as the Clippers Leonard came up huge. Tonight, the big guns on both teams should be in full force unlike on opening day when Kuzma for the Lakers and George for the Clippers were out. I still like the Clippers today getting a bucket. Clippers is in better rhythm now and they're 20-7 ATS off a SU loss. They're also 5-1 ATS off 2 days rest and they're 5-0 ATS in this series. Lakers coming off 3 straight losses and on an 0-5 ATS slide. And they're 4-9 ATS off a SU loss of 10+. I'm sure LeBron and AD will play despite reported injuries but not sure they're in the rhythm they were in earlier in the season. Clippers the call. |
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12-23-19 | Packers +5.5 v. Vikings | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Packers/Vikings 8:15: Plenty to fight for in this matchup but we'll grab the points with the road team. GB is looking to capture the NFC North and looking to sweep their arch-rival; as a matter of fact, in the September 15th matchup, won by GB 21-15, the Packers were out-totaled in yardage as Devin Cook ran roughshod over them for 154 yards on 20 carries including a 75 yard TD burst. Tonight, one of the most explosive backs in the league - Cook - will not play due to injury. And his backup is out as well which leaves little used Mike Boone. Cousins has been awesome since the loss to GB mostly in part with the play action on account of the effectiveness of Cook who also was significant as a receiver. GB, on the other hand, has RB Aaron Jones and WR Davante Adams healthy and doing damage. We'll look for QB Aaron Rodgers to step up his prime time game and deliver. Minnesota only 1-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 6 off a SU non-conference win; moreover, Cousins has yet to deliver on MNF (0-8 SU). GB the call. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +16 v. Central Florida | 25-48 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Marshall/Central Florida 2:30: Marshall has a rich history of winning bowl games as their 12-2 SU mark indicates. And current HC Holiday sports a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark in bowls for Marshall. UCF a formidable foe under Heupel but not as dominant as they were the past few years. Marshall has a solid QB in Green with a good supporting cast including RB Knox. Defensively, LBs Beckett and Cobb are outstanding. 16 points a bit too much vs a team that repeatedly steps up in big games. Marshall the call. |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +2.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Eagles 4:25: Battle of mediocrity in the NFC East ensues today. We'll look for the Eagles to cross the threshold on to control of the division. Cowboys, blew out the Eagles October 20th as Elliot and Cooper had big numbers. Sure, they've had the Eagles number lately but don't count the Eagles out and do not underestimate Dallas HC Garrett's mediocrity. Dallas is coming off a blowout over Los Angeles. They did that as a rare dog but repeatedly underachieve as a favorite. They're due for a fall here. Prescott operating with a sprained throwing shoulder and Eagles' defense, which plays the run well, should step up their defensive game. Offensively, Wentz starting to play better and does have TE Ertz and RB Sanders to go to. Eagles hit with injuries so will need their young talent to step up their game. We'll look for them to be ready for the challenge. Eagles 10-2 ATS in December off division vs a division opponent off a double-digit SU win, 7-1 ATS off the Redskins. Eagles the call. |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Been riding the Seahawks for the past few years but will fade them in this spot. Seahawks usually make things too interesting winning by close margins as a heavy favorite. Seattle, currently the #1 seed in the NFC, do have SF on deck and stacked with key injuries. Seahawks' defense has not been good under Norton Jr. and face a pretty good Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is having a pretty good year and has some weaponry including future HOF WR Fitzgerald. Moreover, RB Drake was a good pickup from Miami. He's done well in his six games with Arizona. Sure, Arizona defense gives up points but do have sack specialist Chandler Jones and S Budda Baker give big play ability to them. And remember, Seattle depth is thin on both sides of the ball. Defensively, still without Clowney (core), S Diggs (ankle) , top run stopper Woods (suspended), and LB Wagner on the mend. Arizona is a sweet 5-1-1 ATS as a road dog and has covered 4 straight in Seattle. Arizona the call. |
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12-22-19 | Raiders +9 v. Chargers | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chargers 4:05: Raiders are banged up with RT Brown and RB Jacobs out, G Ingognito in a boot. Then again, no club is healthy at this time of the year and the Raiders do have some depth. Raiders should battle their division rival tough after their disappointing home finale last week. Carr is actually having a pretty good year hitting 70% of his passes with a 19/8 TD/INT mark. His counterpart, Rivers, has that interception problem and I can't trust the Chargers laying over a TD because of it. Moreover, as I mentioned many a times, their tempory home field in Carson brings no home field advantage. There will surely be at least half the sparse crowd rooting for Oakland. Raiders sport an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog off a SU loss vs less than .500 opponent. Chargers a money burning 0-5-1 ATS as home chalk and 0-8 ATS at home after allowing 35+. With the dog in this series at 16-5 ATS, we'll roll with Oakland. |
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12-22-19 | Ravens -10 v. Browns | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Ravens/Browns 1:00: Both of these teams went in different directions following the Browns September 29th 40-25 blowout win at Baltimore. Baltimore proceeded to hang 33.7 PPG on opponents while allowing just 15.7 PPG in their blistering 10 game winning run; meanwhile, the Browns underachieved substantially and will sit out another playoff session. Baltimore, while revenge on mind, will play for a playoff bye and the #1 AFC seed. Browns 2-15 ATS off non-division vs opponent with revenge. We'll look for Lamar and the Ravens' offensive juggernaut to roll. |
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12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers -6.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-21-19 | Bills +7 v. Patriots | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 96 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo v. Charlotte +6.5 | 31-9 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Buffalo/Charlotte 2:00: Question marks with the Bulls which tend to flop in big games. Last season, with a more experienced and talented club, laid an egg in the MAC Championship and then went on to flop in their bowl. This year's Buffalo team still has that potent run game with Patterson and Marks behind the experienced offensive line but their QB Vantrease not a vertical threat nor running threat. On the other hand, I like turnaround specialist HC Will Healy who did an amazing job in his first year getting Charlotte to a bowl for the first time since joining FBS in 2015. He's got a strong run game too along with a versatile QB in Reynolds. The conditions will be windy in Nassau Bahamas and Reynolds gives us a better chance for success than his counterpart. Defenses are similar and Charlotte has a sack specialist in Highsmith (14 sacks) and an outstanding LB Watts (9 sacks.). We'll take the points. |
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12-19-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4.5 | 122-117 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | Hofstra +2 v. Princeton | 87-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
Hofstra/Princeton 7:00: Both teams coming off wins but at different intervals. Hofstra delivered a win at home over Stonybrook on the 10th whereas Princeton is coming off an OT win at Iona on the 15th. Princeton can score but must outgun them on a account of poor defense. The Tigers allow a generous 77.1 PPG on 50% shooting! As a matter of fact, they're 3-0 when they score 77+ and 0-7 when they don't hit the 76 point mark. Hofstra is not the greatest defensive team but more sound on that end of the floor. The senior laden Pride which gets 74% of their scoring from seniors: Ray, Coburn, Pemberton and their star G Buie. The Pride is 16-7 ATS on the road and let's not forget that November 21st won outright at UCLA. We'll grab the bucket and the Pride. |
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12-18-19 | Alabama -8.5 v. Samford | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Alabama/Samford 7:30: At first glance, Samford seems like a play; after all, they're undefeated at home and now getting points from a team that struggles on the road. A second glance though reveals that Samford's home floor is merely an hour from Tuscaloosa. Alabama plans to have a good fan base here that Coach Oats has captured. And 'Tide still has the talent strength to the Bulldogs. Sure, Sharkey is talented and trouble but Alabama goes nine qaulity deep despite early season talent losses to injuries. Tide starting to find their groove in the Nate Oats' system. They cut back significantly on turnovers in last game at Penn State almost upsetting them to go on a 5-1 ATS tear. Samford, however, is coming off a blowout at Hawaii on the 15th. And surely, teams coming back from Hawaii will feel the jet lag, among other things. Tide should deliver here. |
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12-17-19 | Florida -5 v. Providence | 83-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Florida/Providence 7:00: This one is set at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY and I'm going with the Gators here. They're coming off a loss to #19 Butler and Coach White wasn't happy pointing out the immaturity of his team. I heard that message before and it should be a wake up call for the Gators; after all, they do have a signature win this season over Xavier so they're definitely capable of delivering here. Providence, on the other hand, is a shaky 1-8 ATS despite being handed a light schedule. The Friars do have a dangerous backcourt in Duke and Pipkins but overall, Gators much deeper and talented. Gators 6-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite and we'll lay a little wood here. |
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12-16-19 | Colts +10 v. Saints | 7-34 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
Colts/Saints 8:15: Will take the points with a Colts team that has a tendency to stick around and fight. Sure, the Colts are looking for their first SU win since November 17th; however, they've lost 4 of their last 6 by 4 points or fewer. And consider this, Indy sports a sweet 11-2 ATS mark vs teams above .500. Brissett has done an admirable job at the controls. He has an underrated offensive line that should spring 1000+ yard rusher Mack against a Saints defensive front missing two key players in Rankins and Davenport (out for season). And even without Hilton (questionable), others step up such as Pascal. Colts have done well in the red zone where they convert 64% of the time. Saints defense struggles in the red zone allowing nearly 60% conversion. Colts defensively, they'll need to step up like they did vs KC earlier in the year. Colts are 23-9 ATS in December and 5-1 ATS on MNF. Saints struggle at 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games vs non division opponents. And coming off the physical battle with SF, they won't have an easy time here. |
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12-15-19 | Jaguars v. Raiders OVER 47 | 20-16 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Raiders 4:05: Both of these defenses are nearly non-existent over the last few weeks. Makes way for a shoot out with Minshew III and Carr. Jaguars are allowing tons of yardage on the ground and Raiders' RB Jacobs (shoulder) is begging to get back on the field for this one. Heavy "over" trends for both teams and this series is 4-1 O/U. Over the call. |
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12-15-19 | Dolphins v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 102 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Offense should be at a discount today in East Rutherford. With a reasonable December forecast in the offing, gunslingers Fitzpatrick and Manning should be airing it out vs vulnerable secondaries. Fitzpatrick will have Parker and Wilson - both cleared - to operate with against a Giants' secondary - now missing CB Jenkins (released) - that's been torched repeatedly. Giants defense ranks in the bottom tier in yards and points allowed. And Eli Manning still has some juice with a healthy Barkley, Golden Tate and newfound weapon Darius Slayton helping him out. Should find plenty of green grass leading to the end zone vs a Dolphins' defense dead last in points allowed. Giants 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points. These teams are a combined 15-5 O/U off a SU loss. "Over" easy. |
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12-15-19 | Dolphins v. Giants -3 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Not a fan of the Giants' defense lead by a lame duck DC Bettcher. Giants' defense confused at times, out of position, stupid penalties and poor tackling; nevertheless, Dolphins out of the their element here this time of year. Dolphins off a crushing controversial loss and sport a 21-33 ATS in December and 1-4 ATS in Week 15. With a defense in the bottom of the NFL in points allowed (31), Eli Manning should bring back the old magic to keep him above .500 in his outstanding career. Giants are 6-1 ATS after the Eagles, 5-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, 4-1 ATS in Week 15, and 7-2 ATS vs teams below .500. NY should get it done here as Manning outguns Fitzpatrick. |
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12-15-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | 3-23 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Broncos was a big play for me last week and I'm staying on them here. They're 2-0 SU with QB Drew Lock at the controls as he's finding a rhythm uplifting the offense significantly. Chiefs' defense leaves much to be desired. A good mix with RB Lindsay, against a KC run-stop-unit ranked 28th in the NFL, should open up some more successful play-action for Lock. Denver's looking to avenge their embarrassing 30-6 home loss in Week 7. Denver 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU ATS wins (last as a dog). KC coming off a huge win over NE and we'll bet their a little sluggish in this one. |